Alihuat
06-18

AI commercialization remains concentrated in infrastructure; giants like Microsoft (MSFT) must bridge heavy CAPEX with direct software monetization—though its 123% surge in AI run-rate revenue to $37 billion shows scaling adoption. Forward multiples are adjusting, with Nvidia (NVDA) trading at a compressed forward P/E of 22, down from historical peaks. This coincides with a hawkish tightening cycle, highlighted by the Fed holding the funds rate at 3.50%–3.75% while raising its median projection to 3.8%, signaling rates will stay higher for longer. Rather than the end of this bull market, the Fed's stance is a precautionary adjustment to engineer a soft landing. Consequently, the market is turning into a stock-picker's arena where cash-rich, cyclical companies outperform speculative tech. The long-term upward trend remains resilient, provided robust corporate productivity absorbs these sustained borrowing costs.

QQQ Gains 3.3% — Did Cooling PCE and Earnings Together Switch Off the Fear?
QQQ surged 3.30% Thursday and SPY 1.68%, the Nasdaq 100's best day since May 2025 and the end of a six-session losing streak. Twin catalysts: Microsoft's earnings pulling AI names higher, and June core PCE at 3.3% year-on-year — a modest cooling from May that keeps rate-cut hopes alive. Skepticism toward the Warsh Fed persists, with commentary bluntly demanding "action, not guidance." With this rebound earnings-driven rather than liquidity-driven, do August's seasonal headwinds still land?
Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

Comments

We need your insight to fill this gap
Leave a comment
2