🚨 The AI Memory Crunch: Forget Cheap RAM—The Old Rules No Longer Apply.

🚨 Believe It or Not 😂

$SK hynix(SKHY)$  

$CSOP SK Hynix Daily (2x) Leveraged Product(07709)$  

$Micron Technology(MU)$ 

$CSOP Samsung Electronics Daily (2x) Leveraged Product(07747)$  

The memory supercycle may be much longer than many expect.

ADATA Chairman Simon Chen believes the global DRAM shortage could last another 10 years, with AI becoming the biggest driver of memory demand. As AI expands from data centers into PCs, smartphones, autonomous vehicles, robotics, and industrial applications, memory could become the world's most constrained computing resource, with supply potentially unable to catch up before 2040.

📈 His outlook:

• Q3 DRAM contract prices: +20% to +30%

• Q3 NAND Flash contract prices: +35% to +40%

• For the first time in his 30-year career, DRAM, NAND, SSDs, and HDDs are all experiencing shortages simultaneously.

He also dismissed the idea of a DRAM bubble or a 2028 oversupply, arguing that such discussions are premature. The three memory leaders—Samsung, SK hynix, and Micron—have learned from past boom-and-bust cycles and are no longer blindly expanding capacity. Instead, they are focusing on disciplined production while prioritizing high-margin HBM for AI.

😂 Wishful Thinking?

Many investors believe China's CXMT will flood the market with cheap DDR5 memory and crash prices.

The latest market data suggests the opposite.

CXMT's 64GB DDR5-5600 RDIMM is selling for around RMB 18,999, slightly higher than Samsung's comparable module at RMB 18,595. Why? Because in today's market, available inventory is more valuable than a lower list price. CXMT can deliver immediately, while Samsung often has longer lead times.

Even though CXMT still uses a less advanced manufacturing process—with larger chips and production costs estimated to be over 30% higher than the leading manufacturers—it is still able to charge premium prices due to tight supply.

My analysis

The memory market has fundamentally changed.

• AI is consuming far more DRAM and NAND than previous technology cycles.

• Samsung, SK hynix, and Micron are allocating more wafer capacity to HBM instead of commodity DRAM.

• New fabs take years to build, and export restrictions continue to slow China's technology catch-up.

• The industry is now prioritizing profitability over market share, making another price war less likely.

This doesn't mean memory prices will rise forever. Like every semiconductor cycle, there will eventually be corrections. However, expecting CXMT alone to flood the market with cheap memory and cause DDR5 prices to collapse appears unrealistic under current market conditions.

The old saying, "Just wait, memory will be cheaper next year," may no longer apply in the AI era.