FAITHFULLY
08-14

July CPI: no surprises, but the market still found something to chew on

Headline landed at 0.1% m/m, 3.4% y/y. Core came in at 0.2% m/m, 2.5% y/y — the slowest annual core print since February. Shelter and food each added 0.1%; energy was the drag, down on the month even as gasoline is still running +24.6% y/y.

The "in-line" read is actually the story: it's the second straight month of cooling core inflation, which is why traders leaned harder into a September hold rather than a hike. Future now price meaningfully lower hike odds than a week ago — the fourth straight downward revision.

Equities shrugged it off calmly (S&P +0.26%, Nasdaq +0.54%), but gold's +2% move to $4,471 says someone's still hedging. That's the tension: a "boring" CPI print that both confirms disinflation *and* keeps a safe-haven bid alive.

So — is gold pricing in a hold that never comes, or is it front-running something the equity market hasn't priced yet?

U.S. Debt Tops $40 Trillion — Can Markets Digest Jackson Hole and Earnings Together?
U.S. Treasury debt passed $40 trillion in August, and the long end still sets equity prices. Jackson Hole runs August 27–29, Warsh's first as Chair, and his tone decides where long yields go; Bessent lifting single-operation buybacks to at least $4bn treats liquidity, not the deficit behind it. Nvidia reports Wednesday after the close, Marvell Thursday. If the rhetoric turns hawkish and long rates rise, the steepest discounts land on the longest-duration AI hardware. Cut before the symposium and wait for both, or rotate into rate-sensitive assets now?
Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

Comments

  • CharlesBaker
    08-14
    CharlesBaker
    Real yields still matter more here. Gold looks like insurance, not a bad hold call — equities maybe just too chill?
Leave a comment
1