8/17 Pre-Market Thoughts: Anthropic Targets $2 Trillion IPO

One-sentence theme: The AI primary market is red-hot (Anthropic's $2 trillion IPO pushes valuations to the limit), while secondary market funds continue to go long on the Nasdaq and short Hong Kong stocks. The tone remains unchanged: Sell Puts on pullbacks, don't chase highs.

I. Sentiment Focus: Anthropic's $2 Trillion IPO — Valuation Supported by the "Future"

• Valuation maxed out: According to Reuters, Anthropic's IPO valuation is anchored to revenue expectations two years out — projected 2028 revenue of $190–200 billion (far above the $47 billion annualized run rate in May). This framework could support a valuation approaching $2 trillion.

• Growth is staggering: According to Bloomberg, Q2 revenue exceeded $11.5 billion, up 14x YoY and 2.4x QoQ (from $4.73 billion last quarter). Anthropic is also aiming to go public before OpenAI and DeepSeek.

• ⚠️ Sober interpretation: Growth is real and explosive, but a $2 trillion valuation is "using 2028 revenue expectations to support today's price" — a classic growth narrative pricing. Note: ahead of a mega-cap IPO, the market often heats up the AI atmosphere first, before reallocating capital from other giants closer to the listing.

II. WDAY Acquisition Arbitrage Opportunity

• Sources say Silver Lake is in talks to acquire Workday (WDAY), with the stock spiking 17% on Thursday before pulling back.

• Approach: Before the acquisition news is finalized, the stock typically holds at elevated levels → consider Sell Put as a news-arbitrage play (betting it won't break down, collecting premium). ⚠️ However, there is a risk the deal falls through, so strike prices should leave a safety margin and position sizes should be controlled.

III. Notable Block Trades (With Interpretation)

• QQQ: 8/28-expiry 765 Buy Call $QQQ 20260828 765.0 CALL$ , opening 53,000 contracts → long the Nasdaq, betting on new highs in August.

• TQQQ: 1/21/2028-expiry 110 Buy Call $TQQQ 20280121 110.0 CALL$, 3,512 contracts → leveraged long-term Nasdaq bet (long-term bullish).

• KWEB: 12/18-expiry 27 Sell Call$TQQQ 20280121 110.0 CALL$  $KWEB 20261218 27.0 CALL$ , 4,810 contracts → Hong Kong topping strategy (betting Hong Kong stocks can't rise further, capping the upside).

• Summary: U.S. equities (Nasdaq) skewed bullish, Hong Kong stocks skewed topping → the "U.S. strong, Hong Kong weak" capital flow pattern continues.

IV. Macro Themes · Conventional Approaches

1. Anthropic IPO (late September or early October): Likely scheduled after Triple Witching on 9/18. A trillion-dollar giant's IPO has significant near-term market impact (capital may be reallocated from other mega-caps ahead of the listing, but the AI atmosphere tends to heat up first).

2. Gold Sell Put: Increased probability of no rate hike is bullish for gold. The trend is strong, but a pullback is likely after the sharp rally — watch for Sell Put opportunities on pullbacks.

3. SPY / S&P Sell Put (Policy tailwind): Trump Account passive buying (7 million accounts already, default SPYM) — S&P has already risen 3% → structural tailwind. For those with a medium-to-long-term bullish view, Sell Puts on dips are a better alternative to chasing highs.

⚠️ Disclaimer: The above is a pre-market information summary and strategy discussion, provided for educational and discussion purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice. Sell Puts/Calls carry assignment/exercise risk; naked selling carries asymmetric risk. Only operate with a willingness to hold the shares at the strike price, manage position sizes, and set stop-losses. Investing involves risk.