I. Smartphone Business Holds the Fort, Overall Results in Line with Expectations Smartphone average selling price hit an all-time high (passing through rising costs) → Q2 smartphone gross margin remained above 8%. Shipments exceeded expectations: Omdia data showed Q2 shipments of 31.2 million units, 15% above Morgan Stanley's forecast. New model launches and export plans are key to restarting growth: EV sales have slowed significantly in 2026 year-to-date. To reignite market enthusiasm, Xiaomi plans to deliver its first SUV model in late September 2026. Additionally, Xiaomi plans to begin exporting vehicles in 2027. Overall financials: Total revenue is expected to exceed RMB 100 billion, with recurring net profit of approximately RMB 6 billion, in line with expectations. Core tension: Smar

One-sentence theme: The AI primary market is red-hot (Anthropic's $2 trillion IPO pushes valuations to the limit), while secondary market funds continue to go long on the Nasdaq and short Hong Kong stocks. The tone remains unchanged: Sell Puts on pullbacks, don't chase highs. I. Sentiment Focus: Anthropic's $2 Trillion IPO — Valuation Supported by the "Future" Valuation maxed out: According to Reuters, Anthropic's IPO valuation is anchored to revenue expectations two years out — projected 2028 revenue of $190–200 billion (far above the $47 billion annualized run rate in May). This framework could support a valuation approaching $2 trillion. Growth is staggering: According to Bloomberg, Q2 revenue exceeded $11.5 billion, up 14x YoY and 2.4x QoQ (from $4.73 billion last quarter). Anthropic i

The above chart shows the weekly volatility ranges and simulated short put alternative strike prices for 17 key stocks, calculated based on various indicators — for simulation reference only 👆 📊 Noteworthy Points IV continues to broadly decline (off-season + no near-term earnings): Compared to last week — SKHY 87% → 78.5%, MU 75% → 67%, SPCX 89% → 67%, INTC 74% → 68%, AMD 63% → 59%. Volatility expectations for storage/AI names continue to cool, and seller premiums are thinning out. SPY at 19.46%, QQQ at 22.38%, AAPL at 24.74% — the broader market remains extremely stable. NVDA reports earnings on August 26, which will also impact AMD's stock price. AAPL at 305.8 and GOOGL at 345.9 are both sitting at the lower end of last week's forecast ranges, resting on support levels. Barring debt issu

One-sentence theme: AI bulls and bears are in a direct face-off — Lenovo's AI order explosion (bullish) vs Burry's broad-based AI shorting (bearish). But looking one layer deeper, the shorts are really betting on "compute rental prices falling." The strategic tone remains unchanged: position via Sell Puts on dips, don't chase highs. I. Sentiment Focus: Bulls vs Bears 🟢 Bulls: Lenovo AI Orders Surge Lenovo's Q1 net profit broke through $1 billion, with AI server backlog orders reaching $54 billion. This drove DELL and HPE higher in pre-market trading. → DELL is a good Sell Put candidate ahead of earnings (riding the AI server demand theme). 🔴 Bears: Burry Strikes Again, Calling "NVIDIA = Enron" Michael Burry shorted: NBIS (247), Micron (924), ORCL (152), and also shorted SOXX. He compared N

I. Valuation Is Cheap Q2 total revenue is expected to decline 3% YoY, while non-GAAP net profit is expected to grow 18% YoY — results are likely in line with or slightly above consensus. Delivery loss visibility has improved: expected to drop significantly from the 2025 peak of RMB 13 billion to below RMB 6 billion in Q2 2026. JoyBuy is expanding modestly into Italy, Spain, and Greece; the acquisition of Germany's Ceconomy (€2.2 billion) has received approval from the German Ministry of Economic Affairs. Earnings recovery is solid + valuation is not demanding. Current 2026/27 P/E is only 9.6/7.7x — valuation is reasonable. Core tension: Revenue pressure (high base, -3%) but strong profit growth (+18%, delivery loss narrowing), combined with extremely low valuation (8–9x P/E) → long-term va

One-sentence theme: CPI came in as expected, focus shifts to compute — demand-side continues to validate (CRWV/NBIS capacity sold out, Temasek eyeing Korean storage, CME launching compute futures). Strategic tone: Pullbacks are opportunities for Sell Put positioning, not reasons to chase highs. I. Macro: CPI in Line, No Surprises CPI came in at +3.4% YoY, core at +2.5% — both in line with expectations. The probability of a September rate hike remains unchanged at 45%. → No change to the rate-cut trade rhythm; neutral impact on the broader market. II. Compute Theme: Strong Demand-Side Validation ✅ CRWV: Backlog orders at $104 billion, EPS -1.14 beat the -1.41 consensus. NBIS stated that all 2027 capacity is already sold out. → Compute demand remains very strong and shows no signs of slowing

I. No Surprises in Earnings, But Key Product Launches Are Imminent Tencent Q2 expectations: Total revenue +8.8% YoY (consensus +10%), adjusted net profit +4.7% (consensus +9%) — both slightly below consensus, a near-term risk point. WeChat AI assistant beta launch and foundational model improvements are underway. The market may be underestimating Tencent's leading position in China's AI agent orchestration layer (WorkBuddy ranks #1 in user base). Capex for 2026–28 is raised 23–25% to RMB 185B/225B/250B. Forward EPS is lowered due to increased AI investment. Tencent will host its Global Digital Ecosystem Summit in September 2026, focusing on breakthroughs in WeChat AI agents, WorkBuddy, and other 2C products. The WeChat AI launch is expected in Q3 2026, followed by the Hunyuan (HY) foundati

Today's one-sentence theme: The AI theme continues (Intel's fundraising expansion, Anthropic's planned IPO), while storage enters a phase of "high IV but the leveraged surge is over." Hong Kong stocks get a catalyst from the Hang Seng Tech Index expansion. Strategic tone: Sell into high IV, sell Puts on quality names on pullbacks. I. Today's New Focus Areas Intel Fundraising: Short-Term Negative, But Overwhelming Demand Is a Strong Endorsement The stock fell 4% on Monday. The fundraising scale expanded from $15 billion to $20 billion, with subscription demand exceeding $100 billion. Pricing is expected above $95, with proceeds going toward accelerating AI and advanced manufacturing. Interpretation (through the lens of equity financing logic): Equity financing is typically a short-term nega

Today's one-sentence theme: The rate-cut trade continues, with the broader market hitting new highs and entering high-level consolidation. Today's new highlights: Berkshire's big bet on Google, TSMC's revenue confirming AI demand, and PLTR/AAOI leading the gains. The main play remains — "don't chase highs, use Sell Puts on pullbacks to position." I. Today's New Focus Areas 1. Berkshire Hathaway Q2 Holdings: Heavy Bet on Google (Significant) $4.5 billion in buybacks, $6.8 billion acquisition of homebuilder Taylor Morrison, $10 billion into Google, $10 billion added to Japan exposure. Interpretation: The last time Buffett made a bet of this magnitude was on Apple. This Google position is a powerful long-term bullish signal. → Google is a strong candidate for long-term Sell Put strategies (bu

📊 Points TSMC announced July revenue with year-over-year growth slightly above expectations, up 44.7% YoY, indicating that AI chip demand continues to maintain strong growth momentum. Bezos made his first share sale of the year in Amazon, with an initial sale of $350 million on 8/3, planning to sell a total of 15 million shares worth approximately $4 billion. This will exert some selling pressure on Amazon's stock price. ⚠️ Educational sharing, not investment advice.

One-sentence theme for today: Storage earnings are wrapping up and entering a valuation re-pricing phase; gold is breaking out on rising rate-cut expectations; SPCX faces its first massive lock-up expiry. The common thread across all three: it's not a time to chase highs, but a stage to position cautiously at support levels via Sell Puts. I. Storage Sector: Earnings Behind Us, Entering Valuation Adjustment Phase SanDisk (SNDK): Down ~10.7% pre-market, breaking below the 120-day moving average, with next-quarter revenue guidance below consensus. Western Digital (WDC): Down ~14% pre-market, still holding above the 120-day MA; results fell short of the elevated expectations set by STX's earnings. Key variable: SNDK disclosed an aggregate LTA revenue floor of $93.9 billion — establishing a val

I. Fundamentals SanDisk and Kioxia are 25-year NAND partners, jointly operating the world's largest NAND production facility. Kioxia's earnings have a decisive impact on SNDK. Bullish: Kioxia's Q2 pricing rose +70%, and long-term agreements (LTAs) increased — signaling hyperscaler confidence in demand durability. Bearish: Kioxia's Q1 results and guidance missed expectations, raising concerns about a slowdown in the AI flash memory pricing cycle. Kioxia subsequently announced a 1-for-3 stock split and a buyback of up to ¥800 billion to stabilize sentiment. Key observation: With the stock having already fully corrected in July, Kioxia did not decline post-earnings. It is reasonable to expect SNDK may behave similarly, with price action likely oscillating within the expected range after earni

I. Fundamentals: Long-Term Value vs. Near-Term Supply Shock 1. Long-term bull case unchanged, but short-term price under four layers of pressure ① tactical concerns over the upcoming lock-up expiry; ② AI business uncertainty; ③ potential Tesla merger complexity; ④ lower-than-expected passive index buying. As the lock-up expiry passes, the stock is expected to stabilize at some level. 2. Valuation: SOTP stress test suggests AI business is nearly free At the current price of approximately $108/share (~$1.4 trillion valuation), a sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) stress test suggests that just the Space + Connectivity segments alone already support the bulk of the value: Space, benchmarked against Blue Origin, is valued at roughly $390–650 billion; Connectivity is conservatively valued at over $748 bil

I. Fundamentals Citi maintains a Buy rating, naming AMD its top growth semiconductor pick for the second half of 2026. Q2 revenue is expected at $11.3 billion / EPS $1.66, and Q3 revenue at $14.0 billion / EPS $2.28 — both above consensus, driven primarily by upside in server CPUs and AI GPUs. Data center sales for 2026 are projected at $33.7 billion (+103% YoY). Meta has emerged as a key new customer (custom MI450, six-year gigawatt-scale deal with ~$15 billion revenue per GW). AI sales are expected to reach $33 billion in 2027 and $50.8 billion in 2028. TAM has been significantly revised upward: AI accelerators to $1.4 trillion by 2030, data center CPUs to $220 billion (both with CAGRs exceeding 45%). Risk: The stock is already fully priced, with capacity sold out, limiting near-term ups

Noteworthy Points 1. AMD and SPCX Report Earnings After the Close on 8/4 (Tuesday) Given that both ARM and INTC delivered earnings beats, AMD, as the leading competitor in the same space, is unlikely to post numbers inferior to those two. Furthermore, AMD's post-earnings price movement will likely have a knock-on effect on ARM and INTC (sector-linked co-movement). 2. SPCX: High Growth Potential, But Two Near-Term Wildcards While SPCX possesses extremely high growth potential, two factors warrant attention: On 8/6 (two trading days after earnings), $116 billion in locked-up shares will become eligible for sale — the potential selling pressure should not be overlooked; On 8/3, Elon Musk echoed a follower's view on X that "this is a once-in-a-lifetime buying opportunity" — a bullish sentiment

I. Spending + Debt Issuance + Cash Flow Risks For this earnings report, Amazon faces the risk of upward revisions to capital expenditures or operating cash flow falling short of expectations. Competition for retail market share remains intense, which could further pressure retail margins. Amazon commands a significant share of the credit market, coupled with persistent oversupply from ongoing bond issuance — its credit performance is expected to lag behind the sector. Amazon is projected to add another $25–35 billion in debt by the end of 2026. Even the bond market is pricing in risks from Amazon's debt issuance and spending — this originates from the same valuation-killing dynamic seen with META and GOOGL. The make-or-break factor on the equity side is whether AWS growth can justify these

I. Core Perspective: Apple's Key Factor Is Not Capex, but Expectation Realization Unlike MSFT / META / GOOGL, Apple is not a story of heavy AI spending and compressed free cash flow — it is a cash cow by nature. Therefore, for this earnings report, the specific numbers are not the most critical factor. The key question is: Apple has already risen 16.88% this month — have the good news already been priced into the stock? The current price sits at approximately 32x FY27 P/E, approaching valuation peaks. That is the true variable that will determine post-earnings price direction. June quarter iPhone likely beat slightly, but September quarter gross margin guidance may be on the low side, with gross margins expected around 46.8% (consensus 47.4%). Services growth faces headwinds, with the App

I. Fundamentals: Revenue and EPS Expected to Beat Consensus Q2 results are expected to beat consensus on both revenue and EPS, with additional upside to EPS driven by the cost-cutting effect of a 10% headcount reduction in May and a 49% month-over-month decline in job postings during Q2. AI integration + external compute sales are emerging as new growth drivers. Based on rumors that Meta may reach a compute leasing agreement with Anthropic, the market has priced in an additional $5 billion in AI compute revenue expectations by 2027. The bull case is well-rounded (stable advertising + AI monetization + cost reduction + reasonable valuation). However, like Microsoft and Google, Meta is one of the heaviest capex spenders among tech giants — with both AI infrastructure and Reality Labs burning