U.S. stocks rose again Thursday as oil prices extended gains and the dollar tumbled after producer prices showed inflation continued to fall in June. The Wall Street Journal reporter Nick Timiraos, who is known as the Fed's mouthpiece, wrote that the US consumer price index (CPI) rose in June at a 26-month low, which increases the probability that the Federal Reserve will stop raising interest rates after an expected interest rate hike this month, that is, July may be the last interest rate hike this year.It is worth noting that the Fed's "eagle King" and St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank President Bullard announced that he would resign on August 14 and then go to Purdue University.John Flood, a partner at Goldman Sachs, thinks the S&P could end the year at a new high. Flood said in a not

One-sentence theme: The AI primary market is red-hot (Anthropic's $2 trillion IPO pushes valuations to the limit), while secondary market funds continue to go long on the Nasdaq and short Hong Kong stocks. The tone remains unchanged: Sell Puts on pullbacks, don't chase highs. I. Sentiment Focus: Anthropic's $2 Trillion IPO — Valuation Supported by the "Future" Valuation maxed out: According to Reuters, Anthropic's IPO valuation is anchored to revenue expectations two years out — projected 2028 revenue of $190–200 billion (far above the $47 billion annualized run rate in May). This framework could support a valuation approaching $2 trillion. Growth is staggering: According to Bloomberg, Q2 revenue exceeded $11.5 billion, up 14x YoY and 2.4x QoQ (from $4.73 billion last quarter). Anthropic i

I. Smartphone Business Holds the Fort, Overall Results in Line with Expectations Smartphone average selling price hit an all-time high (passing through rising costs) → Q2 smartphone gross margin remained above 8%. Shipments exceeded expectations: Omdia data showed Q2 shipments of 31.2 million units, 15% above Morgan Stanley's forecast. New model launches and export plans are key to restarting growth: EV sales have slowed significantly in 2026 year-to-date. To reignite market enthusiasm, Xiaomi plans to deliver its first SUV model in late September 2026. Additionally, Xiaomi plans to begin exporting vehicles in 2027. Overall financials: Total revenue is expected to exceed RMB 100 billion, with recurring net profit of approximately RMB 6 billion, in line with expectations. Core tension: Smar

The Fed's preferred measure of core inflation has slowed below 3 percent, and corporate earnings have been mixed. Intel shares plunged nearly 12 percent after the company's first-quarter outlook fell well short of Wall Street expectations, undermining AI-driven hopes to some extent and weighing on tech stocks, putting AMD and Nvidia under pressure.The solid growth in the U.S. economy comes amid continued signs of slowing inflation. The December personal consumption expenditure (PCE) report showed that the annual inflation rate fell below 3%, the first time in nearly three years that it was below economists' expectations, and the growth rate was the lowest since March 2021.This follows U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) growth of 3.3 percent in the fourth quarter of last year, and the soft l

A larger-than-expected slowdown in inflation bolstered bets that the Fed would cut interest rates as early as March, but Nike's sharp drop in its full-year outlook weighed on sentiment and the three major U.S. indexes ended the eighth straight week with gains, the first for the S&P since 2017 and the first for the Dow since 2019.The latest data showed the core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index fell to 3.2 percent in November, the lowest since April 2021 and below market expectations. In addition, the PCE price index rose 2.6 percent year-on-year in November, below market expectations of 2.8 percent.Meanwhile, U.S. durable goods orders rose 5.4 percent in November, the largest increase since December 2022. Signs that inflation is accelerating and slowing have bolstered

Markets focus on the Fed's latest interest rate decision. Tech companies such as Meta and Qualcomm will report quarterly earnings. The Federal Reserve will announce the resolution at 2 o 'clock on Thursday, 30 minutes after the press conference, the market is widely expected to raise interest rates by 25 basis points, so that the interest rate reached a 22-year high, which represents the benchmark interest rate will reach 5.25-5.50%, is the Fed since the beginning of 2022 so far the 11th rate increase, and Chairman Bauer's press conference will be the focus of observation.Microsoft reported lackluster fourth-quarter sales growth after the bell on Tuesday, due to slowing demand for cloud computing, and its revenue outlook for the current quarter fell short of market expectations, sending it

As markets digested another batch of strong economic data and earnings, the $Semiconductor Index ETF-HOLDRs(SMH)$Semiconductor ETF rose more than 3% to a new all-time high. Apple led the technology sector higher, while Taiwan Semiconductor Semiconductor Co surged nearly 10 percent after its earnings report, boosting semiconductor shares, but Humana warned that healthcare costs would hit its outlook for the year, triggering a broad decline in health insurance stocks.New claims for unemployment benefits unexpectedly fell to their lowest level since September 2022 as a new round of jobs data pointed to persistent labor market tightness, suggesting job growth likely remained solid in January.In order to avoid a repeat of the "liquidity" crisis, the Fed

Nvidia surged more than 7 percent and technology stocks surged, leading U.S. stocks to break out of a two-week slump. However, Tesla cut prices and electric vehicles were generally weak. AMC shares plunged 35% after a preferred stock conversion plan was approved.As earnings season comes to a close, the focus turns to retail earnings this week, including Home Depot on Tuesday, Target on Wednesday and Walmart on Thursday.Minutes from the Federal Reserve meeting to be released on Wednesday will also be closely watched as investors look for more clues on the outlook for monetary policy and see whether most officials are sounding hawk or dove. Goldman expects the Fed to hold off on raising rates at its regular September meeting and then announce in November that inflation is slowing, meaning fu

A number of banks kicked off the earnings season with better-than-expected results, but investors had to contend with volatility amid rising geopolitical tensions. For the week, the Dow rose 0.8 percent, snapping a three-week losing streak, while the S&P gained 0.4 percent and the Nasdaq fell 0.2 percent.International oil prices rose more than 6% on fears that a war between Israel and Hamas could exacerbate geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.Mike Bailey, director of research at FBB Capital Partners, said after a strong second quarter, investors need to see at least the same level of results in the third quarter, and as the quarter's tech giants report, other market participants can be expected to follow the leaders. "The probability of a decline in tech earnings this quarter is p