Pretty Difficult to Make a Legitimate LONG TERM Bearish Case

MMMTWealth
08-18 15:47

Just some back of the napkin maths on $Amazon.com(AMZN)$from MS:

$Amazon.com(AMZN)$ AWS:

AWS Q2 2026 revenue came in at $42.2B. That's an annualized run rate of $169B.

$Amazon.com(AMZN)$ management have said it's very possible AWS reaches a $1T annual revenue business.

Constraint is entirely capacity driven with a huge $496B backlog.

But let's model out the path to $1T in annual revs:

Capacity ~14 GW in 2025 -> 120 GW in 2035.

-> ~6 GW in 2026 and then ~8 GW per year thereafter.

-> Monetization rises to ~$12 revenue per incremental watt.

-> Which means at $12/W, each 8 GW of new capacity adds $96B in annual revs.

So:

2026: ~$177B

2027: $249B

2028: $341B

Onwards: $96B in increments per year once at $12/W

Which by 2035 equals $1T which is only ~21% CAGR from 2026.

TLDR for AWS: Sustained 8 GW annual adds + rising monetization to $12/W gets AWS to ~$1T in 9 years.

Note: This completely doesn't touch on:

- $Amazon.com(AMZN)$ digital ads

- $Amazon.com(AMZN)$ e-comm

- "Moonshot" bets such as Zoox, Project Kuiper, Twitch

- Subscriptions

- Physical stores

Pretty difficult to make a legitimate LONG TERM bearish case on $Amazon.com(AMZN)$ at $2.8T MC.

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