Just want to add to this $Amazon.com(AMZN)$ math: E-Commerce: ARR is currently $547B. It's likely worth anywhere between 1 -1.8x sales which puts the e-comm valuation ~$800B. Digital Ads: FY26 revs is heading towards $80B+ with operating margins likely at +50% which puts operating income +$40B. I think a conservative multiple on this is in the 20x EBIT range which values the ads business ~$800B as well. That's a total of $1.6T in e-comm and ads. Overall valuation is $2.8T which means ~$1.2T is available for: -> AWS: Likely worth +$3T by 2030 -> Amazon Leo -> Zoox -> One Medical -> Prime Video -> Equity stakes
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NVDA& CBRS: Which One You Prefer?
$NVIDIA(NVDA)$ vs $Cerebras Systems(CBRS)$ $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ is far cheaper but is it a better bet today? For now, yes. But let's see where $Cerebras Systems(CBRS)$ can get to when it's through this early IPO period. Firstly, $Cerebras Systems(CBRS)$ valuation was insane. It came in with an IPO that was 20x oversubscribed and then hit ~90x FY26 revenue estimates on day 1. With the stock now trading ~$52B on $900M in FY26 numbers...the valuation is still insane at ~57x 2026 forecasts. But we're also trad
The Reason I am Bullish on AMZN
The Reason I am Bullish on AMZN
Pretty Difficult to Make a Legitimate LONG TERM Bearish Case
Just some back of the napkin maths on $Amazon.com(AMZN)$from MS: $Amazon.com(AMZN)$ AWS: AWS Q2 2026 revenue came in at $42.2B. That's an annualized run rate of $169B. $Amazon.com(AMZN)$ management have said it's very possible AWS reaches a $1T annual revenue business. Constraint is entirely capacity driven with a huge $496B backlog. But let's model out the path to $1T in annual revs: Capacity ~14 GW in 2025 -> 120 GW in 2035. -> ~6 GW in 2026 and then ~8 GW per year thereafter. -> Monetization rises to ~$12 revenue per incremental watt. -> Which means at $12/W, each 8 GW of new capacity adds $96B in ann
Pretty Difficult to Make a Legitimate LONG TERM Bearish Case
NBIS: MY 2030 Estimate
Here's my 2030 $NEBIUS(NBIS)$ estimate: -> 5GW capacity is contracted by YE 26 with 1GW capacity to be deployed per year from FY 27. -> Mid-term ACV is ~$20-25M as per management (for reference it used to be ~$12M). So a BULL case model would look something like this: 5.2 GW connected capacity by 2030 on a blended ARR/MW of $14M (that's a realistic haircut on utilization, mix, and timing vs the $20-25M forecasted. 5,200 MW * $14M = $72.8B ARR With EBITDA margins forecasted to stabilize near 45%... we're then looking at ~$32.7B in EBITDA. Bull case multiple: 25x Base case multiple: 18x Bear case multiple: 13x 25x * $32.7B -> $817B 18x * $32.7B -> $588B 13x * $32.7B -> $425B Or go more conservative (which is fair) and
NBIS: MY 2030 Estimate
The AI Value Chain: Who Wins, Who Loses?
Some of the more exciting themes right now: 1. Silicon Photonics Safest bet: $Lumentum(LITE)$ $Coherent(COHR)$ $Marvell Technology(MRVL)$ $Credo Technology Group Holding Ltd(CRDO)$ Moderate risk: $Applied Optoelectronics(AAOI)$ Highest risk: $POET Technologies Inc(POET)$ $Aeva Technologies Inc.(AEVA)$ 2. Solid Oxide Fuel Cells Safest bet:
Here's the Potential 3x Opportunity for AEVE
Here's the potential 3x opportunity for $Aeva Technologies Inc.(AEVA)$: 1. OPTICS SEGMENT Management are guiding for "millions and millions of units" likely giving them "multiple hundreds of millions" per annum in revs. Conservatively, I think $300M by 2029 and $400M by 2030 is the range we're talking given H2 27 is the initial ramp up with a big production ramp up in 2028. 2. PERCEPTION BUSINESS Still pre-scale but looking at ~$522M in revs as per analysts in FY29. 3. TOTAL REVS Given the risks, I think it's sensible to work ~60-80% risking factors here. 60% * $822M = $493M in revs 80% * $822M = $657 in revs 4. SHARE DILUTION ESTIMATES Current share count is at 69.7M. SBC is unavoidable at this stage. 3-4M shares per annum vesting
Here's the Potential 3x Opportunity for AEVE
The AI Drug Discovery Theme?
95% of X is focused on semis, photonics, and memory it seems? What about the AI drug discovery theme? -> $AbCellera Biologics(ABCL)$ +55% in a week. -> $Tempus AI(TEM)$ still wildly undervalued, especially post $Microsoft(MSFT)$ partnership. -> $Eli Lilly(LLY)$ as the $1.1T (future -> $4T drug discovery leader). What about the critical minerals/materials/metals theme everyone on X went crazy about last year and then forgot about? -> $Global X Copper Miners ETF(COPX)$ is likely no longer
The AI Drug Discovery Theme?
What's the Risk of AAOI?
$Applied Optoelectronics(AAOI)$ risk to reward makes complete sense. Here's why: BULL CASE: The bull case is a situation where management forecasts happen. I.e. $471M/month in revenue by mid 2027 / $5.6B (likely more) in revenue by FY28. $Lumentum(LITE)$ has a current sales multiple of 13x. 20% of $Applied Optoelectronics(AAOI)$ revenue is attributed to this segment so 20% * 13x = 2.6x sales. Innolight and Eoptolink trade ~9x sales and this is where 80% of $Applied Optoelectronics(AAOI)$ revenue is likely to come from. 80% * 9x = 7.2x Blended multiple = 9.8
What's the Risk of AAOI?
OUST Estimate: What's the EBITDA Margins?
Here's my 2030 $Ouster Inc.(OUST)$ estimate: -> $950M in revenue in 2030 (41% CAGR from today / midpoint of management guidance). -> 35% EBITDA margins (bull case) -> $330M in EBITDA -> 30% EBITDA margins (base case) -> $285M in EBITDA -> $330M in EBITDA multiplied by 30x EBITDA (bull case) gives us a $9.9B EV (vs $2.4B today) -> $285M in EBITDA multiplied by 25x EBITDA (base case) gives us a $7.1B EV (vs $2.4B today).
OUST Estimate: What's the EBITDA Margins?
Which One Should we Put Our Money on it?
Hello everyone! Today i want to share some trading ideas with you! 1 Has $Lemonade, Inc.(LMND)$ become one of the more manipulated stocks in the market? -24% today on a beat and guidance raise. - Last 2 quarters we saw +15% moves pre-market only to finish the day negative 10%. Big picture look at the trends: -> LAE to 5% -> GLR at 60% -> Adj. EBITDA profitability in Q4 -> Premium per customer up 2 Before anyone starts to lose faith in their holdings post earnings report sell offs... Just realize $Bloom Energy Corp(BE)$ probably couldn't have produced a better ER if they tried. And they're now down 7% from reporting. The CEO even said "our engagement with customers
Which One Should we Put Our Money on it?
3 Highest Conviction Themes Long-term
3 highest conviction themes long-term are: 1. Robotics -> $Ouster Inc.(OUST)$: Perception play growing ~49% YoY. -> $Churchill Capital Corp XI(CCXI)$: Pure humanoid bet. -> $Regal Rexnord(RRX)$: A way to ride the 300x boom in actuators. -> $Aeva Technologies Inc.(AEVA)$: Higher risk (feels like a venture bet) but a 4D LiDAR on robotics. Can even include $Micron Technology(MU)$ in this basket. And then extend this out to rare earths, critical metals etc as well...
3 Highest Conviction Themes Long-term
AEHR& FLNC: Two Names I Think People Need to Understand More
Two names I think people need to understand more: 1. $Aehr Test(AEHR)$: -> Now given back nearly all of earnings gain (which was +40%). -> So many names map back to $Aehr Test(AEHR)$ -> Guiding for $140M (midpoint) which is ~170% growth from FY26 expected revenue for 20x sales. -> Not cheap...but certainly a big opportunity when you take into account $100M backlog too. 2. $Fluence Energy, Inc.(FLNC)$: -> Now given back more than the Q1 earnings jump -> FY26 revenue guidance is $3.2B - $3.6B and the current MC is $2.5B. -> And then there's $5.6B in backlog which DOES NOT include the hyperscaler p
AEHR& FLNC: Two Names I Think People Need to Understand More
TSLA: What Elon Says with the Robotics Future?
$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ I always take what Elon says with a pinch of salt but directionally he's been correct almost every time. Here's what he's saying on the robotics future: 1. Reinforced Optimus will be potentially the biggest product ever. -> Optimus 3 targets 1M units/year -> Optimus 4 targets 10M units/year Think of the numbers on that in terms of potential revenue: Assuming ~$30k value and selling all units (very broad assumption): -> Optimus 3 = $30B/year -> Optimus 4 = $300B/year Longer term remember Elon calls the revenue potential "north of $10 trillion." Probably early. Very early. But directionally he's consistently correct and this has to give you some confidence in the robotics future:
TSLA: What Elon Says with the Robotics Future?
Robotics is Moving so Fast
Robotics is moving so fast...here's some of the data from the last couple months: 1. Morgan Stanley put their TAM to $25T by 2050 (humanoid market at $5T). 2. We've had the first way to publicly invest in humanoids through $Churchill Capital Corp XI(CCXI)$. -> On that point, Agility uses ~75% US sourced parts (very bullish). 3. Private market deals have already topped $23B in 2026. -> Saronic: $1.75B raise -> Apptronik: $935M raise -> Figure AI: $39B valuation -> Neura Robotics: $1.4B raise The public markets haven't caught up to what's happening in the private markets yet. 4. Morgan Stanley put out a report forecasting a 300x growth in the bearings market by 2050. 5.
Trading Ideas: How to Make Smart Investment?
I'm all for concentration and against over diversification. I'm the biggest voucher out there that owning individual stocks is the way forward vs ETFs. We're in a stock pickers market more than any time in history: $Applied Optoelectronics(AAOI)$ YTD 220% $Ouster Inc.(OUST)$ YTD 82% $Micron Technology(MU)$ YTD 238% etc etc vs $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ at 9.7% BUT It's sad to see this whole "all-in" investing with one or two stocks becoming 100% of people's net worth become a norm. Yes there are success stories. But there are FAR MORE disaster stories. I
OUST: Robotics is Really Just Getting Starting
Hello everyone! Today i want to share some trading ideas with you! Just as bullish on $Ouster Inc.(OUST)$ today at $40, as I was at ~$23 (my average cost). A reminder on how I see it at $180+ -> $950M in revenue by 2030 (41% CAGR which is just above managements midpoint guidance). -> 35% EBITDA margins on $950M in revenue gives you $333M in EBITDA. -> $Cognex(CGNX)$ traded at 33x NTM EBITDA (on lower margins and lower growth). -> Give $Ouster Inc.(OUST)$ a 38x NTM EBITDA and we have an EV of $12.65B. > Add in $250M in net cash -> 78.6M shares would be 4% dilution from today to 2030 which I think is
OUST: Robotics is Really Just Getting Starting
Trading Chance: FEIM& OUST
Hello everyone! Today i want to share some ai trading ideas with you! 1 $Frequency Electronics(FEIM)$ is nearly back at highs after the space / high beta sell off. Reminder: Set to hit $150M in revenue by FY29 which means it's growing ~32% CAGR over the next 3 years. Whilst trading at 8x sales vs a company like $Rocket Lab USA, Inc.(RKLB)$ at 32x sales. Again, not making the claim that $Frequency Electronics(FEIM)$ should trade in line with $Rocket Lab USA, Inc.(RKLB)$ but for similar growth forecasts, I'm not sure the difference should in multiple for be fo
Trading Chance: FEIM& OUST
Here's a thought experiment on the longer term robotics TAM.
Probably worth a read for those who have lost a bit of faith in robotics plays like $Ouster Inc.(OUST)$ at $2.5B MC or Harmonic Drive (6324) at $4.3B MC or $Churchill Capital Corp XI(CCXI)$. Note this is just a look at US TAM & this a more bullish take. ~170 million Americans are employed * $65k average salary = $11T (today). There is no world where robots replace humans entirely but figuring out a fair % is the way to do it. By 2040: Here's the key industries (not an exhaustive list): 1. Manufacturing: ~12.8M workers at avg wage $58k -> total wage pool of $740B. -> $BMW.NE, $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$,
Here's a thought experiment on the longer term robotics TAM.
AI Capex is forecast to be exceed $1 TRILLION next year.
Actually stop for a second and think where we are in the AI cycle. 1. CPO with $Applied Optoelectronics(AAOI)$, $Credo Technology Group Holding Ltd(CRDO)$, $Marvell Technology(MRVL)$, $Lumentum(LITE)$ etc is a 2027-2029 story. -> We have some CPO names trading less than 3x 2027 revenues with revenues growing ~12x over the next 18 months. 2. Neoclouds like $NEBIUS(NBIS)$ is a 2025-2030 onwards story. Jensen literally said "take care of you." -> $27B
AI Capex is forecast to be exceed $1 TRILLION next year.
Charts For The Week: ABAT TEM HLX
The entirety of this article is dedicated to smaller cap names. I spent a lot of time researching this weekend some names that arenāt spoken about as much online. I think thereās good potential in the following[Claw]1. American Battery Technology | $AMERICAN BATTERY TECHNOLOGY CO(ABAT)$ABAT is a vertically integrated battery-materials/recycling company in the US operating across:Recycling lithium-ion batteries.Proprietary extraction for battery grade-materials (in development).Currently hold unpatented mining claims in Nevada (future option).I already hold ALB which is my large value play to hopefully ride the lithium tailwinds over the next year, but Iām trying to find a smaller cap stock in the same niche that potentially has more upside than AL
Charts For The Week: ABAT TEM HLX
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