Risk to reward for $Amazon.com(AMZN)$ is better than all other Mag-7 plays. -> AWS is growing 40% YoY and will likely sustain that for the next 2-3 years. -> Can almost value ~80% of the company on AWS alone. Where AWS is today: - $184B revenue run rate. - 39% operating margins - $578B backlog - Management guiding to 40%+ growth in both 2027 and 2028. Where AWS gets to: - 40% growth -> $246B in 2027 - 40% growth again -> $345B in 2028 - At 38% margins -> $131B in operating income from AWS alone. At 15x operating income we have a $2T company which is 77% of today's entire valuation. Which means you're valuing retail, ads, Amazon Leo, Zoox, Trainium chips, Anthropic stake and everything else at $600M. Risk to reward in
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Some High Risk Thematic Bets
1 Some high risk thematic bets. You don't need all of these to win to do very well: Optics:$Applied Optoelectronics(AAOI)$ now trades below the forecasted transceiver revenue run rate in 2027. Neoclouds: $NEBIUS(NBIS)$ now trades ~0.4x my base case FY30 ARR figure. Copper: $Trilogy Metals(TMQ)$ is now down 32% in the last month and back to the same level as when it was announced the US Gov owned 10%. Robotics: $Ouster Inc.(OUST)$ set to grow at ~40% CAGR whilst trading sub 8x sales. $Aeva Technologies Inc
Risk to Reward for AMZN is Better Than all Other Mag-7 Plays
Risk to Reward for AMZN is Better Than all Other Mag-7 Plays
The Major Drawdowns of Some of the Best Investments
I had a look through some major drawdowns of some of the best investments of the last decade: 1. $NVIDIA(NVDA)$: - Up 12,400% in the last decade. - Fell 66% 2021 and 2022 2. $Micron Technology(MU)$: - Up 5,300% in the last decade. - Fell 58% between 2024 and 2025. 3, $Arista Networks(ANET)$: - Up 3,400% in the last decade - Fell 52% between 2019 and 2020 4. $Lam Research(LRCX)$: - Up 2,700% in the last decade - Fell 58% in 2022 5. $Broadcom(AVGO)$: - Up 2,500% in the last decade - Fell 48% between 2019
Stop the Panic: AI’s 10-Year Buildout Is Only 2–3 Years In—So Why Is the Market So Indecisive?
Money yet again flowing into defensives and homebuilders and out of the AI infrastructure trade as risk appetite switches by the day. This has to be the most indecisive market ever? What more evidence can the market want at the moment? $SpaceX(SPCX)$ and $NEBIUS(NBIS)$ single-handedly reminded (yes reminded...nothing changed from before) of the insatiable demands. Yet still by day 3 sentiment looking more positive here we are again. We're in a period where it seems like the market and investors are unsure what to bet on. Either it's the claims and posted financials from the biggest, most AI centric companies in the world and their management... or claims and "research" from
Stop the Panic: AI’s 10-Year Buildout Is Only 2–3 Years In—So Why Is the Market So Indecisive?
SpaceX Earnings: Bloom Energy and Nebius Emerge as Top Beneficiaries of Elon’s Comments
Hello everyone! Today i want to share some trading ideas with you! Hopefully everyone is using a bit more logic now after $SpaceX(SPCX)$ earnings. Two biggest beneficiaries for me from Elon's comments are $Bloom Energy Corp(BE)$ and $NEBIUS(NBIS)$. 1. Bloom Energy | $Bloom Energy Corp(BE)$: Turbine suppliers told $SpaceX(SPCX)$ that blades and vanes run 12-18 months behind the rest of the turbine and this is only getting worse. This is one of Bloom's competitive advantage. Fuel cells have no turbine blad
SpaceX Earnings: Bloom Energy and Nebius Emerge as Top Beneficiaries of Elon’s Comments
Here's a Concentrated, High Growth 15 Stock Basket
Now people are using some logic again because Elon reminded us how early we are in this buildout Let's take a look at some opportunities. Here's a concentrated, high growth 15 stock basket I'd make right now at todays levels: Interconnect: 1. $Marvell Technology(MRVL)$: Investor day evidenced management believe Marvell is here to scale as they work towards $30 EPS by 2031. 2. $Applied Optoelectronics(AAOI)$: My higher risk optics play on a potential 9x inflection in monthly capacity by Q4 27. Currently trades ~1x FY28 base case revenue. Neoclouds: 3. $NEBIUS(NBIS)$: Hard not to be bullish when forecasts are projecti
Here's the VARA AI Fund and Their "Diversification"
Last week showed you why diversifying across themes is so important. That's why hedge fund deleveraging was so big. Most funds just had 20+ pure AI names and called that "diversification". Here's the most important themes: 1. Brazil / $iShares MSCI Brazil ETF(EWZ)$ -> $Nu Holdings Ltd.(NU)$ -> $MercadoLibre(MELI)$ -> $Vale SA(VALE)$ 2. Crypto / $Bitcoin(BTC.USD.CC)$ -> $Coinbase Global, Inc.(COIN)$ ->
Just Ran an Screen of High Growth (forecasted +30% growth in FY27) Stocks
Just ran an screen of high growth (forecasted +30% growth in FY27) stocks that have held up nicely over the last month. Hopefully this puts into perspective the "blood bath" we are in: Results over 1 month: 1. Everpure | $Everpure(P)$: +27% 2. Securitize | $Securitize(SECZ)$: +27% 3. Bending Spoons | $Bending Spoons S.p.A.(BSP)$: +20% 4. AGI | $AGI(AGBK)$: +19% 5. Penguin Solutions | $Penguin Solutions, Inc.(PENG)$: +18% 6. Generac Holdings | $Genera
Why am I Bullish on EWZ?
Having some exposure to Brazil $iShares MSCI Brazil ETF(EWZ)$ makes complete sense. As both a growth position and a slight hedge against the US. Ultimately it comes down to figuring out what the world can't function without? Answer: -> Critical Minerals: Brazil controls 90% of world niobium and has huge copper reserves. It's really the only credible critical minerals alternative to China. -> Food: World's largest net food exporter with more unused arable land than any country on earth. -> Water: 12% of the world's renewable freshwater. And at the same time you've got an extremely digitalizing demographic. It's why I hold a big position in $Nu Holdings Ltd.(NU)$ and
Why am I Bullish on EWZ?
Remember When FUD Led to Massive Overshoots to the Downside
Remember when FUD led to massive overshoots to the downside for: -> Cybersecurity names when Claude Code Security was released. Since then: 1. $Palo Alto Networks(PANW)$ +152% 2. $CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc.(CRWD)$ +168% 3. $SailPoint Parent, LP(SAIL)$ +81% -> Chinese DeepSeek that would end the AI trade. Since then: -> $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ +90% -> $Advanced Micro Devices(AMD)$ +375% -> $Intel(INTC)$ +395% -> SaaSpocalypse when inve
Remember When FUD Led to Massive Overshoots to the Downside
Trading Ideas: Investing Wisdom
It's very important to understand that: 1. FUD is normal. 2. FUD is a good thing long term. The last thing investors want (or for that matter the AI buildout wants) is a rapid buildout with no financing issues and no energy bottleneck issues and then a rapid crash. Bottlenecks are important. It slows down the buildout to a pace that is sustainable. It's easy to get spooked. Doomer posts always spread far quicker than non-doomer posts but just realize that the AI trade is far from priced in. 1. There are still bottlenecks. 2. There are still multi-year buildouts. We will hit a bubble at some point but that time is still 4-5 years away at least in my opinion.
SOFI: That's a Very Conservative Take on the Valuation
Hello everyone! Today i want to share some trading ideas with you! $SoFi Technologies Inc.(SOFI)$ just lost a key support level. Not great news looking purely at the chart but the numbers speak for themselves: Valuation: -> Trade at 21 NTM EPS growing at 49% CAGR through to 2028 (0.42x PEG). -> For 2030 forecasts, analysts are estimating ~$1.71 in EPS (+30% CAGR from today). So even if $SoFi Technologies Inc.(SOFI)$ trades at 0.6x PEG by then...we'd have a EPS multiple of 18x. 18x on $1.71 = $31 share price. That's a very conservative take on the valuation.
SOFI: That's a Very Conservative Take on the Valuation
Sit Back and Give the Markets Time: The Pain Trade Remains Higher
By far the best thing you can do now as an investor is sit back and give the markets time. So far $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ and $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ has seen no structural break so there's no reason to shift more defensive yet. You just need patience. You've got optics plays at inflection point. As a reminder: -> $Lumentum(LITE)$ sold out to 2029. -> $Applied Optoelectronics(AAOI)$set to ~12x revenue in 2 years. -> $Marvell Technology(MRVL)$ is set to 10x revenue by 2031. You've also got
Sit Back and Give the Markets Time: The Pain Trade Remains Higher
Investing Wisdom: Be the Friend of Market
Hello everyone! Today i want to share some trading ideas with you! Ok so we have: 1. Paul Tudor Jones: "2027 is going to be a very challenging year for the market." "I'll be short the whole year." Just when two months ago he said he "just bought more AI stocks and that the AI trade has another year to run." 2. Michael Burry: "The stock market is in its first stage of grief which is denial." This guy has missed the entire AI trade. 3. Blackrock: Downgraded US equities to neutral "to manage potential volatility around the AI buildout." 4. Ray Dalio: Called the AI boom a "classic bubble" whilst missing out on the entire AI trade. vs 1. Goldman Sachs: Upgraded its position on US equities to overweight on better valuations post recent pullback. 2. JP Morgan: Continues to highlight AI driven ear
EWZ: Brazil Always Had Legs
Hello everyone! Today i want to share some trading ideas with you! $iShares MSCI Brazil ETF(EWZ)$ saw the largest inflows in history last week. Positive news for the bull case but another sign that investors are extremely reactive and FOMO'ing in. Brazil has always held huge potential. It's always had upside from: -> The commodity cycle (Brazil has huge copper reserves and is therefore an underrated play on the AI buildout). -> Rare earth (Brazil controls ~90% of the worlds niobium). -> Rapid connection of data centers to the grid vs Europe and US powered by surplus renewables. -> A hedge against the US market. Brazil always had legs. Finally people are realizing it as
EWZ: Brazil Always Had Legs
Here's Some Brazilian Stocks Worth Knowing
Here's some Brazilian stocks worth knowing: FinTech / Banking -> $StoneCo(STNE)$: Payments and software provider for SME's -> $Pagseguro Digital Ltd.(PAGS)$: FinTech and payments mainly serving SME's -> $Itau Unibanco Holding SA(ITUB)$: Brazil's largest private-sector bank -> $Nu Holdings Ltd.(NU)$: Internationally expanding FinTech Commodities: -> $Gerdau SA(GGB)$: Brazilian steel producer -> $Vale SA(VALE)$: Brazilian miner
The Big 5--AI x Biology, Financial Revolution, Commodities, Optics& The Power Bottleneck
The Big 5 1. AI x Biology: $Tempus AI(TEM)$: The data layer $CRISPR Therapeutics AG(CRSP)$: The execution layer cutting DNA at a specific site. $Beam Therapeutics, Inc.(BEAM)$: Higher risk play on editing individual bases $Recursion Pharmaceuticals, Inc.(RXRX)$: Data generation layer $Eli Lilly(LLY)$: The entire stack 2. Financial Revolution: $Coinbase Global, Inc.(COIN)$: The everthing crypto play
MU Still Has to be One of the More Mispriced Stocks in the Market
$Micron Technology(MU)$ still has to be one of the more mispriced stocks in the market especially after Davidson just raised their PT to $3,000. Here's some key points on $Micron Technology(MU)$: 1. Keep saying it's cyclical all you want. It's still not. -> 87% gross margins are not a sign of a "cyclical" stock. -> $33B worth of FCF (61% margins) + cash position covering a further buildout is not a sign either. 2. If EPS doesn't grow from Q1 forecast...we're looking at $153 in EPS in FY27 which means the stock trades at 7x EPS. -> For reference the $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ now trades ~21x EPS. 3. 87% gr
MU Still Has to be One of the More Mispriced Stocks in the Market
EWZ is Far More Than An "Anti-AI Market" like JP Morgan are Calling it
Hello everyone! Today i want to share some trading ideas with you! 1 Brazil $iShares MSCI Brazil ETF(EWZ)$ is far more than an "anti-AI market" like JP Morgan are calling it. It wins in an AI bull market and as a hedge against an AI bull market. People are massively underestimating how physical the AI buildout is. And people are also massively underestimating how much renewable energy, graphite, and rare earths Brazil has for this AI buildout. Bullish AI -> Bullish Brazil. Renewables: $EBR Rare Earths: $USA Rare Earth Inc.(USAR)$ Broader: $Vale SA(VALE)$ / $Pet
EWZ is Far More Than An "Anti-AI Market" like JP Morgan are Calling it
BULL CASE FOR NBIS
This William Blair $NEBIUS(NBIS)$ ARR forecast of $71.7B is just below my absolute base case of $72.8B I laid out in August. My bull case has an ARR ~30% higher than this at $93.6B. This is where the valuation starts to get quite exciting: -> EBITDA margins will end up closer to 60% so we'll have an EBITDA forecast of $56.2B. -> A base case EBITDA multiple of ~16x (on 152% CAGR) gives us a $900B EV (extreme as doesn't model in CapEx). -> Use an EBIT approach with 30% margins which gives us $28.1B in EBIT. -> A base case EBIT multiple in the 20-24x range gives us $617B EV. Either way... I think we end up +$500B EV by 2030. Granted we'll have to deal with some chop along the way.
BULL CASE FOR NBIS
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