Humanoids are coming and there are three public options now. We have Unitree (688836) now public at $53B. -> 2025 revenue ~$250M (humanoids were half of that). -> 2025 humanoid shipments ~ 5,500. -> ASPs ~$24k -> Production already demonstrated in the multi-thousand unit annual output range. Nomura has already initiated a 25x (yes...25x) 2027 P/S multiple for Unitree. We have $Churchill Capital Corp XI(CCXI)$ (Agility) expected to go public at $2.5B pre-money. -> Trailing annual revenue ~$37M -> Cash burn ~$100M -> 150 units but 65,000 real world hours -> ~$125k BOM with a path to $30k long0term -> $300M multi-year contracted order. And we have Optimus /

Just want to add to this $Amazon.com(AMZN)$ math: E-Commerce: ARR is currently $547B. It's likely worth anywhere between 1 -1.8x sales which puts the e-comm valuation ~$800B. Digital Ads: FY26 revs is heading towards $80B+ with operating margins likely at +50% which puts operating income +$40B. I think a conservative multiple on this is in the 20x EBIT range which values the ads business ~$800B as well. That's a total of $1.6T in e-comm and ads. Overall valuation is $2.8T which means ~$1.2T is available for: -> AWS: Likely worth +$3T by 2030 -> Amazon Leo -> Zoox -> One Medical -> Prime Video -> Equity stakes

Just some back of the napkin maths on $Amazon.com(AMZN)$from MS: $Amazon.com(AMZN)$ AWS: AWS Q2 2026 revenue came in at $42.2B. That's an annualized run rate of $169B. $Amazon.com(AMZN)$ management have said it's very possible AWS reaches a $1T annual revenue business. Constraint is entirely capacity driven with a huge $496B backlog. But let's model out the path to $1T in annual revs: Capacity ~14 GW in 2025 -> 120 GW in 2035. -> ~6 GW in 2026 and then ~8 GW per year thereafter. -> Monetization rises to ~$12 revenue per incremental watt. -> Which means at $12/W, each 8 GW of new capacity adds $96B in ann

Here's my 2030 $NEBIUS(NBIS)$ estimate: -> 5GW capacity is contracted by YE 26 with 1GW capacity to be deployed per year from FY 27. -> Mid-term ACV is ~$20-25M as per management (for reference it used to be ~$12M). So a BULL case model would look something like this: 5.2 GW connected capacity by 2030 on a blended ARR/MW of $14M (that's a realistic haircut on utilization, mix, and timing vs the $20-25M forecasted. 5,200 MW * $14M = $72.8B ARR With EBITDA margins forecasted to stabilize near 45%... we're then looking at ~$32.7B in EBITDA. Bull case multiple: 25x Base case multiple: 18x Bear case multiple: 13x 25x * $32.7B -> $817B 18x * $32.7B -> $588B 13x * $32.7B -> $425B Or go more conservative (which is fair) and

Here's the potential 3x opportunity for $Aeva Technologies Inc.(AEVA)$: 1. OPTICS SEGMENT Management are guiding for "millions and millions of units" likely giving them "multiple hundreds of millions" per annum in revs. Conservatively, I think $300M by 2029 and $400M by 2030 is the range we're talking given H2 27 is the initial ramp up with a big production ramp up in 2028. 2. PERCEPTION BUSINESS Still pre-scale but looking at ~$522M in revs as per analysts in FY29. 3. TOTAL REVS Given the risks, I think it's sensible to work ~60-80% risking factors here. 60% * $822M = $493M in revs 80% * $822M = $657 in revs 4. SHARE DILUTION ESTIMATES Current share count is at 69.7M. SBC is unavoidable at this stage. 3-4M shares per annum vesting

95% of X is focused on semis, photonics, and memory it seems? What about the AI drug discovery theme? -> $AbCellera Biologics(ABCL)$ +55% in a week. -> $Tempus AI(TEM)$ still wildly undervalued, especially post $Microsoft(MSFT)$ partnership. -> $Eli Lilly(LLY)$ as the $1.1T (future -> $4T drug discovery leader). What about the critical minerals/materials/metals theme everyone on X went crazy about last year and then forgot about? -> $Global X Copper Miners ETF(COPX)$ is likely no longer

$Applied Optoelectronics(AAOI)$ risk to reward makes complete sense. Here's why: BULL CASE: The bull case is a situation where management forecasts happen. I.e. $471M/month in revenue by mid 2027 / $5.6B (likely more) in revenue by FY28. $Lumentum(LITE)$ has a current sales multiple of 13x. 20% of $Applied Optoelectronics(AAOI)$ revenue is attributed to this segment so 20% * 13x = 2.6x sales. Innolight and Eoptolink trade ~9x sales and this is where 80% of $Applied Optoelectronics(AAOI)$ revenue is likely to come from. 80% * 9x = 7.2x Blended multiple = 9.8

Here's my 2030 $Ouster Inc.(OUST)$ estimate: -> $950M in revenue in 2030 (41% CAGR from today / midpoint of management guidance). -> 35% EBITDA margins (bull case) -> $330M in EBITDA -> 30% EBITDA margins (base case) -> $285M in EBITDA -> $330M in EBITDA multiplied by 30x EBITDA (bull case) gives us a $9.9B EV (vs $2.4B today) -> $285M in EBITDA multiplied by 25x EBITDA (base case) gives us a $7.1B EV (vs $2.4B today).

3 highest conviction themes long-term are: 1. Robotics -> $Ouster Inc.(OUST)$: Perception play growing ~49% YoY. -> $Churchill Capital Corp XI(CCXI)$: Pure humanoid bet. -> $Regal Rexnord(RRX)$: A way to ride the 300x boom in actuators. -> $Aeva Technologies Inc.(AEVA)$: Higher risk (feels like a venture bet) but a 4D LiDAR on robotics. Can even include $Micron Technology(MU)$ in this basket. And then extend this out to rare earths, critical metals etc as well...

Two names I think people need to understand more: 1. $Aehr Test(AEHR)$: -> Now given back nearly all of earnings gain (which was +40%). -> So many names map back to $Aehr Test(AEHR)$ -> Guiding for $140M (midpoint) which is ~170% growth from FY26 expected revenue for 20x sales. -> Not cheap...but certainly a big opportunity when you take into account $100M backlog too. 2. $Fluence Energy, Inc.(FLNC)$: -> Now given back more than the Q1 earnings jump -> FY26 revenue guidance is $3.2B - $3.6B and the current MC is $2.5B. -> And then there's $5.6B in backlog which DOES NOT include the hyperscaler p

$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ I always take what Elon says with a pinch of salt but directionally he's been correct almost every time. Here's what he's saying on the robotics future: 1. Reinforced Optimus will be potentially the biggest product ever. -> Optimus 3 targets 1M units/year -> Optimus 4 targets 10M units/year Think of the numbers on that in terms of potential revenue: Assuming ~$30k value and selling all units (very broad assumption): -> Optimus 3 = $30B/year -> Optimus 4 = $300B/year Longer term remember Elon calls the revenue potential "north of $10 trillion." Probably early. Very early. But directionally he's consistently correct and this has to give you some confidence in the robotics future:

Hello everyone! Today i want to share some trading ideas with you! Just as bullish on $Ouster Inc.(OUST)$ today at $40, as I was at ~$23 (my average cost). A reminder on how I see it at $180+ -> $950M in revenue by 2030 (41% CAGR which is just above managements midpoint guidance). -> 35% EBITDA margins on $950M in revenue gives you $333M in EBITDA. -> $Cognex(CGNX)$ traded at 33x NTM EBITDA (on lower margins and lower growth). -> Give $Ouster Inc.(OUST)$ a 38x NTM EBITDA and we have an EV of $12.65B. > Add in $250M in net cash -> 78.6M shares would be 4% dilution from today to 2030 which I think is

Hello everyone! Today i want to share some ai trading ideas with you! 1 $Frequency Electronics(FEIM)$ is nearly back at highs after the space / high beta sell off. Reminder: Set to hit $150M in revenue by FY29 which means it's growing ~32% CAGR over the next 3 years. Whilst trading at 8x sales vs a company like $Rocket Lab USA, Inc.(RKLB)$ at 32x sales. Again, not making the claim that $Frequency Electronics(FEIM)$ should trade in line with $Rocket Lab USA, Inc.(RKLB)$ but for similar growth forecasts, I'm not sure the difference should in multiple for be fo

Probably worth a read for those who have lost a bit of faith in robotics plays like $Ouster Inc.(OUST)$ at $2.5B MC or Harmonic Drive (6324) at $4.3B MC or $Churchill Capital Corp XI(CCXI)$. Note this is just a look at US TAM & this a more bullish take. ~170 million Americans are employed * $65k average salary = $11T (today). There is no world where robots replace humans entirely but figuring out a fair % is the way to do it. By 2040: Here's the key industries (not an exhaustive list): 1. Manufacturing: ~12.8M workers at avg wage $58k -> total wage pool of $740B. -> $BMW.NE, $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$,

Actually stop for a second and think where we are in the AI cycle. 1. CPO with $Applied Optoelectronics(AAOI)$, $Credo Technology Group Holding Ltd(CRDO)$, $Marvell Technology(MRVL)$, $Lumentum(LITE)$ etc is a 2027-2029 story. -> We have some CPO names trading less than 3x 2027 revenues with revenues growing ~12x over the next 18 months. 2. Neoclouds like $NEBIUS(NBIS)$ is a 2025-2030 onwards story. Jensen literally said "take care of you." -> $27B