I’m leaning toward A — normal -To The Moon - Tiger Brokers Online Investing Community

I’m leaning toward A — normal profit-taking, with the AI hardware trend still intact.

Tuesday’s semiconductor selloff looks more like a valuation reset than a fundamental breakdown. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell about 5%, while memory and optical names such as SNDK, MU and CRDO were hit much harder than Nvidia.

The key issue is macro: the 30-year Treasury yield recently reached its highest level since 2007, while Brent crude moved above $90. That combination naturally pressures high-multiple growth stocks.

But AI infrastructure demand has not suddenly disappeared. Memory, storage, networking and GPU demand remain tied to massive data-center investment.

So I wouldn’t call this an AI-cycle reversal yet. Instead, I’d watch whether SNDK and MU stabilize and reclaim key moving averages. If they do, Tuesday’s crash may eventually look more like a healthy reset than the start of a bear market.

@Tiger_comments [龇牙]

Nvidia Drops 2.3% a Week Before Earnings — 50% Upside or Bubble?

Nvidia −2.34% Tuesday, a week out from August 26 earnings. BofA sees roughly 55% upside after pricing in AI risk, and notes institutions are still underweight — unusual, in a week when memory and second-tier compute are called crowded trades. The bear case is financing: Nvidia is backing about $105bn of lease guarantees for OpenAI's Ohio data center, which Gundlach likened to "bonds collateralized by bananas"; Huang denies it is circular. On competition, Cerebras claims the fastest accelerator and Groq raised $350m. Add before earnings, wait for the minutes, or rotate to Broadcom?

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Comments

kookiz
08-19
kookiz
Rates are the swing factor, but AI hardware demand usually runs longer than a rate scare. If MU and SNDK reclaim those levels, this selloff probably looks temporary

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BofA sees roughly 55% upside after pricing in AI risk, and notes institutions are still underweight — unusual, in a week when memory and second-tier compute are called crowded trades. The bear case is financing: Nvidia is backing about $105bn of lease guarantees for OpenAI's Ohio data center, which Gundlach likened to \"bonds collateralized by bananas\"; Huang denies it is circular. On competition, Cerebras claims the fastest accelerator and Groq raised $350m. Add before earnings, wait for the minutes, or rotate to Broadcom?\n\n","image":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/b41155e98aed5ef07f32e2a10551be8a"}],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"title":"","html":"<html><head></head><body>I’m leaning toward A — normal profit-taking, with the AI hardware trend still intact.\n\nTuesday’s semiconductor selloff looks more like a valuation reset than a fundamental breakdown. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell about 5%, while memory and optical names such as SNDK, MU and CRDO were hit much harder than Nvidia.\nThe key issue is macro: the 30-year Treasury yield recently reached its highest level since 2007, while Brent crude moved above $90. That combination naturally pressures high-multiple growth stocks.\nBut AI infrastructure demand has not suddenly disappeared. Memory, storage, networking and GPU demand remain tied to massive data-center investment.\nSo I wouldn’t call this an AI-cycle reversal yet. Instead, I’d watch whether SNDK and MU stabilize and reclaim key moving averages. If they do, Tuesday’s crash may eventually look more like a healthy reset than the start of a bear market.\n<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/U/3501196737273098\"> @Tiger_comments </a> [龇牙]</body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>I’m leaning toward A — normal profit-taking, with the AI hardware trend still intact.\n\nTuesday’s semiconductor selloff looks more like a valuation reset than a fundamental breakdown. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell about 5%, while memory and optical names such as SNDK, MU and CRDO were hit much harder than Nvidia.\nThe key issue is macro: the 30-year Treasury yield recently reached its highest level since 2007, while Brent crude moved above $90. That combination naturally pressures high-multiple growth stocks.\nBut AI infrastructure demand has not suddenly disappeared. Memory, storage, networking and GPU demand remain tied to massive data-center investment.\nSo I wouldn’t call this an AI-cycle reversal yet. Instead, I’d watch whether SNDK and MU stabilize and reclaim key moving averages. If they do, Tuesday’s crash may eventually look more like a healthy reset than the start of a bear market.\n<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/U/3501196737273098\"> @Tiger_comments </a> [龇牙]</body></html>","text":"I’m leaning toward A — normal profit-taking, with the AI hardware trend still intact. Tuesday’s semiconductor selloff looks more like a valuation reset than a fundamental breakdown. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell about 5%, while memory and optical names such as SNDK, MU and CRDO were hit much harder than Nvidia. The key issue is macro: the 30-year Treasury yield recently reached its highest level since 2007, while Brent crude moved above $90. That combination naturally pressures high-multiple growth stocks. But AI infrastructure demand has not suddenly disappeared. Memory, storage, networking and GPU demand remain tied to massive data-center investment. 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