My view: B. Hold — wait for more data
I think a 25bp hike is possible, but holding first could give the Fed more time to see whether inflation and oil prices stay high.
Inflation is still too high.
Oil above $100 could push inflation higher.
But hiking too quickly could hurt economic growth and jobs.
50bp would be too aggressive in my view.
If the Fed hikes, what gets hit hardest?
AI & high-growth tech stocks
Why? Higher rates make future profits worth less today. Expensive growth stocks usually feel this pressure more quickly.
Simple rule:
Rates up→ Treasury yields up → Growth/AI stocks down.
Bottom line: Watch the 10-year Treasury yield, oil and inflation closely. These three could decide the next big market move.
Two Rounds of Treasury Buybacks, and Long-End Yields Still Hit a New High?
The Treasury bought 20- to 30-year debt again Wednesday, capped at $6B — second round in two weeks; the first filled only $5.2B. The bid came, yields didn't fall: the 10-year closed at 5.11%, up 15bp and the highest since 2007, as was the 30-year. October Fed hike odds hit 69.7%. Stocks fell: Nasdaq -1.13% to 26,936.04, erasing Tuesday's record; QQQ -0.84% to $741.21; S&P 500 -0.75% to 7,706.03; Dow -0.68% to 51,511.59. Bulls say firm data, not weak demand, is lifting yields; bears say two buybacks and a new high prove the bid can't absorb supply. At what yield do you redo the math on stocks?
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