$Coinbase Global, Inc.(COIN)$ long term buy zone is still in effect.
$480 target by November 2028 🎯
The weekly bullish structure is still intact, and the upside is significant if support continues to hold.
Price has not swept the key support level, and a potential inverse head and shoulders is forming with the right shoulder currently developing.
My short-term target is $220 over the next 60 to 90 days, which would be approximately 41% upside from current levels.
My longer-term target is $444, the prior swing high, over the next 18 to 24 months. That represents roughly 200% upside.
Invalidation: A weekly close below $120, or approximately 20% downside.
That gives roughly 2:1 risk-to-reward to the short-term target and 10:1 to the longer-term target.
I am currently long this position.
Comments
Coinbase (COIN)
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was principally a quality-of-revenue and earnings-quality reaction , rather than a response to the adjusted EPS beat alone.
Revenue missed despite the small EPS beat. Q3 total revenue was $1.216 billion , versus a $1.233 billion consensus in the reported earnings data—a 1.43% shortfall . For a transaction-sensitive exchange, the market tends to prioritize trading activity and revenue momentum over a narrow adjusted-profit beat.
Trading activity was the weak line item. Reported commentary characterized Q3 trading volume as having roughly halved, which points to a materially weaker transaction-revenue environment. That matters because transaction revenue has historically been Coinbase’s most cyclical and high-operating-leverage revenue stream.
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Subscription & services was a positive, but not enough to offset the transaction concern. This segment reported $570 million , above the $563.4 million FactSet consensus.
Tiger News
The stock’
Coinbase (COIN)
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after a sharp selloff, while Morgan Stanley’s cautious revenue/crypto-volume thesis remains a material fundamental overhang.
Today’s tape was clearly positive: COIN closed at US$145.45, up 5.53% , with US$1.55 billion in turnover and 10.62 million shares traded. Net inflow was US$41.27 million , equivalent to 2.66% of turnover . Large orders contributed a positive US$13.80 million , which supports the idea that the move was not purely retail-driven.
But the flow mix is not decisively “real money” yet: small-order net inflow was larger at US$24.86 million , versus only US$2.61 million from medium orders. More importantly, the prior five large-order sessions were mixed: inflows on 10-28 through 10-30 were followed by an outflow on 11-02. One positive day, especially after COIN fell from US$162.3
Invalidation: A weekly close below $120, or approximately 20% downside.