Gold at the Crossroads: 2026 Midterms, Fiscal Fears, and the AI Boom

XAUUSD Gold Traders
09:19

Voting in the 2026 U.S. midterm elections officially begins on November 3. Prediction markets and polls generally suggest that the Democrats will win control of the House of Representatives, but the outcome of the Senate race remains highly uncertain.$XAU/USD(XAUUSD.FOREX)$

This political realignment exerts dual forces on the gold market: on the one hand, a potential “political stalemate” following the election is expected to reignite market concerns over the U.S.’s massive fiscal deficit, thereby boosting gold’s safe-haven appeal; on the other hand, the robust economic performance driven by the current artificial intelligence (AI) investment boom, coupled with expectations of high Federal Reserve interest rates, is exerting sustained downward pressure on non-interest-bearing gold assets in the short term.

Currently, after several consecutive months of decline, gold has fallen below the $4,000 threshold and is fluctuating around the $3,900 to $3,950 range, with the market generally adopting a wait-and-see stance ahead of the election results. $Gold - main 2612(GCmain)$

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