Macro Trend

Monetary policy, various types of price indices... Here is everything about the macro economy!

avatarKYHBKO
06:39

Is Affirm turning things around? Preview of the week starting 03Feb2025

Public Holidays China is closed on 3rd Feb 2025 to celebrate Chinese New Year. There is no public holidays in America, Hong Kong and Singapore in the coming week. Economic Calendar (03Feb2025) China is closed on 3rd Feb 2025 as they celebrate Chinese Lunar New Year. Notable Highlights The S&P Global manufacturing PMI is expected to be 50.1. This represents a slight growth compared to the previous. ISM manufacturing PMI will also be released. This represents the growth or contraction of the manufacturing industry. ISM manufacturing prices will be released. A figure of above 50 implies an increase in manufacturing cost. This can lead to inflationary costs that are passed onto the consumers. S&P Global Services PMI is expected to hit 52.8. This implies a growth in the global services
Is Affirm turning things around? Preview of the week starting 03Feb2025
avatarKYHBKO
09:05

Oil tells the future, credit card, layoffs - My Investing Muse (03Feb2025)

My Investing Muse (03Feb2025) Layoffs & Closure news Microsoft has initiated a wave of performance-based job cuts, with impacted employees losing their jobs effective immediately and receiving no severance packages, according to termination letters sent to staff. Berkshire Hathaway said on Friday it has shed more than 4,000 jobs over the last year, on pace to post a record annual operating profit. In a regulatory filing, Berkshire said its dozens of operating businesses employ about 392,000 people, down from 396,440 shown in its most recent annual report last February. - Reuters The JG Summit conglomerate will shut down its petrochemical business — which makes raw materials for the production of plastic products and industrial chemicals — due to a China-induced global oversupply of res
Oil tells the future, credit card, layoffs - My Investing Muse (03Feb2025)
avatarKYHBKO
09:04

Home sales, ICE raids & Boeing losses - News and my thoughts from last week (03Feb2025)

News and my thoughts from last week (03Feb2025) US private sector full-time jobs have DROPPED by nearly 2 MILLION over the past year. Such a drop has never happened outside of recessions. The only gain in jobs has been in the government sector. - X user Global Markets Investor 16.2% of total pending home sales in December fell out of contract, the highest December rate on record. This also marks the third-largest percentage since data began in 2017. Nominally, a whopping ~40,000 home-purchase agreements were canceled last month. Home purchase cancellations have surged since 2022 as mortgage rates remain historically high. The weekly average 30-year-fixed mortgage rate reached 7.04% last week, the highest since May. Homebuyers have lost confidence in the market. - X user The Kobeissi Letter
Home sales, ICE raids & Boeing losses - News and my thoughts from last week (03Feb2025)
avatarKYHBKO
08:22

PMI, Jobs & Unemployment updates - Economic Calendar (week of 03Feb2025)

Public Holidays China is closed on 3rd Feb 2025 to celebrate Chinese New Year. There is no public holidays in America, Hong Kong and Singapore in the coming week. Economic Calendar (03Feb2025) China is closed on 3rd Feb 2025 as they celebrate Chinese Lunar New Year. Notable Highlights The S&P Global manufacturing PMI is expected to be 50.1. This represents a slight growth compared to the previous. ISM manufacturing PMI will also be released. This represents the growth or contraction of the manufacturing industry. ISM manufacturing prices will be released. A figure of above 50 implies an increase in manufacturing cost. This can lead to inflationary costs that are passed onto the consumers. S&P Global Services PMI is expected to hit 52.8. This implies a
PMI, Jobs & Unemployment updates - Economic Calendar (week of 03Feb2025)

.SPX: What's Going on Next after Tariffs?

Hello everyone! Today i want to share some technical analysis with you!1. $.SPX(.SPX)$ Thoughts:> 6000 = Good< 6000 = BadSimple. Everything else right now is noise.Image2.Futures marked have opened with the S&P 500 below 6000. Bad boy Trump and his tariffs— market does not like uncertainty. Will monitor breadth and momentum throughout it the week— if both flip negative with the index below 6000 = alarm 🚨Follow me to learn more about analysis!!
.SPX: What's Going on Next after Tariffs?

GOLD: What's Going on After FOMO Meetings?

Hello everyone! Today i want to share some trading analysis with you!1.Thursday (January 30) Asian morning trading, spot gold narrow range shock, currently trading in the vicinity of 2760. Gold prices on Wednesday shock run, after the Federal Reserve announced the interest rate resolution, gold prices once fell to 2744.65 near, after the Fed Chairman Powell press conference, gold prices recovered most of the losses, closed at $ 2759.73 / ounce, down only 0.13%. This came after the Fed held interest rates steady as widely expected by the market, but provided little clarity on the timing of future rate cuts. $E-Micro Gold - main 2502(MGCmain)$ $Gold - main 2504(GCmain)$
GOLD: What's Going on After FOMO Meetings?

GOLD: The Bullish Trend is Maintained!

$XAU/USD(XAUUSD.FOREX)$ $Gold - main 2502(GCmain)$ Technical: Gold price showed clear positivity in breaking above 2755 and settling above it, initiating a bullish wave during the day and heading towards the next major target of 2790. Hence, the bullish trend is maintained today! There may be some sideways volatility influenced by stochastic negativity before then, currently waiting to gather positive momentum that will help propel the price to the desired target. Note: A drop below $2740 will stop the bullish trend and push the price to start a bearish correction during the day. Expect today's trading range to be between support at 2750 and resistance at $2785. Trend forecast: bullish!ImageFo
GOLD: The Bullish Trend is Maintained!
avatarKYHBKO
01-19

The new era under Trump starts - Preview of the week starting 20Jan2025

Public Holidays There will be no public holidays in China, Hong Kong, and Singapore next week. Martin Luther King Holiday - Monday, January 17, 2022 - No ... On 20 Jan 2025 (Monday), the USA celebrates Martin Luther King, Jr. Day. Economic Calendar (20Jan2025) Notable Highlights S&P Global Manufacturing PMI reveals the contraction or growth of global manufacturing - which reveals anticipated demand. S&P Global Services PMI will also be released. A figure above 50 reveals growth and a figure lesser than that reveals contraction. Existing home sales let us in about the home real estate market. With the LA fire, we are expecting some increase in demand for homes in the coming weeks. Initial jobless claims will be announced. The Federal Reserve uses this as one of the key macro data re
The new era under Trump starts - Preview of the week starting 20Jan2025
【Voting Post】The first article in my series on investing in 2025 I am a veteran, and I have made 8% cumulative gains since opening an account in early 2021. I'm also new to global brokerage, having just started a few years ago. Like I didn't know about the 3700, 3400, CSI 300 and the CSI 300, I had little idea about the Nasdaq, Dow and Australian indexes, and I hadn't studied the Hang Seng specifics. For beginners to invest, start with the macro. China is deflationary and the United States is divided after inflation; China and the United States focus on resolving the economic structure of their own issues. Looking at the economic cycle, we may still be in the old cycle, as shown in Figure 1. Looking at the political cycle, there are many elections in 2024. As we can see in Figure 2, important economies
avatarKYHBKO
2024-12-30

Preview of the week starting 30Dec24 - closing thoughts for 2024

Public Holidays There will be no public holidays in China for the coming week. China America, Singapore and Hong Kong are closed on New Year’s Day (01 Jan 2025). Some countries operate half a day on New Year’s Day Eve (31 Dec 2024). Here is wishing all a Blessed New Year (2025). Economic Calendar (30Dec24) Notable Highlights Chicago PMI will be revealed with a forecast of 42.8. This implies a contraction of the sector in Chicago. China's manufacturing PMI will also be reviewed. A forecast of 50.3 implies a slight expansion in the sector. China is a global factory and this can also be seen as a barometer of global demand. S&P global US manufacturing PMI will also be announced. The forecast of 48.3 implies a contraction in the manufacturing sector. The ISM manufacturing PMI will be
Preview of the week starting 30Dec24 - closing thoughts for 2024
avatarKYHBKO
2024-12-23

Can we avoid Anavex? Preview of the week starting 23Dec24

Public Holidays There will be no public holidays in China for the coming week. America, Singapore and Hong Kong are closed on Christmas Day (25 Dec 2024). Some countries are operating half a day on Christmas Eve (24 Dec 2024). Here's wishing all a “Blessed Christmas.” May 2025 be an awesome year of good health and success. Economic Calendar (23Dec24) Notable Highlights CB consumer confidence data will be released this coming Monday. This is a reflection of how the consumer sees the market. On the other hand, Durable goods orders are expecting a decline of 0.4%. New home sales data will be released with a forecast of 650,000 new home sales. This data provides some insight into residential real estate. Initial jobless claims will be announced. The Federal Reserve uses this as one of the key
Can we avoid Anavex? Preview of the week starting 23Dec24
avatarKYHBKO
2024-12-23

Recession over? Government shutdown and debts? News and my thoughts from last week (23Dec24)

News and my thoughts from last week (23Dec24) Powell has said that "it's pretty clear we've avoided a recession." Do you agree? Image China is dominating the global auto market: China’s share of world car production is now at 39%, the highest on record. Since the 2008 Financial Crisis, this percentage has doubled. Its share is also ~11 percentage points larger than Europe, Japan, and the US combined. To put this into perspective, China’s share in global automotive production was just 1% in 2000. By comparison, the US, Japan and Europe accounted for 14%, 20% and 32% of production in 2000, respectively. China has taken over the global car market. X user The Kobeissi Letter Globalization brings access to bigger markets, costs savings and leads to better quality of life. When we limit access,
Recession over? Government shutdown and debts? News and my thoughts from last week (23Dec24)

GOLD: Focused on the Broader Implications of Trump's Policies.

Hello everyone! Today i want to share some macro analysis with you!1.In early Asian trading on Friday (January 24), gold kept oscillating higher and is currently trading near $2766.29 USD. $Gold - main 2502(GCmain)$ $XAU/USD(XAUUSD.FOREX)$ Gold bottomed out on Thursday and fell to $2,735.83 earlier in the session, but after the change in U.S. initial jobless claims performed worse than market expectations and the dollar weakened after President Donald Trump's call for lower interest rates, gold recovered all of its losses to close at $2,754.59. Market attention remains focused on the broader implications of Trump's policies.Follow me to learn more about analysis!!
GOLD: Focused on the Broader Implications of Trump's Policies.
avatarKYHBKO
2024-12-30

Blackrock, Debts, banking News and my thoughts from last week (30Dec24)

News and my thoughts from last week (30Dec24) Is entitlement the curse of progress? Image BLACKROCK SAYS DIVERSIFY YOUR PORTFOLIO WITH GOLD AND BITCOIN TO HEDGE AGAINST EQUITY SELLOFFS Serbian President Vučić has stated that the Nord Stream pipeline may be restarted soon: "Germany urgently needs cheap Russian gas, so within a year, the remaining intact section of the Nord Stream pipeline could be sold to U.S. investors and put back into operation." - X user Russian Market HOMELESSNESS SURGES AS HOUSING COSTS SOAR 18% Homelessness in the U.S. jumped 18.1% this year, with over 770,000 people now living on the streets. Rising costs and a severe lack of affordable housing are driving the crisis. Major cities like NYC and Chicago are overwhelmed, with migrant surges adding to the strain. Meanwh
Blackrock, Debts, banking News and my thoughts from last week (30Dec24)
avatarKYHBKO
01-13

CPI data will be released this week - Economic Calendar of the week 13Jan25

Public Holidays There will be no public holidays in China, Hong Kong, Singapore, or America next week. Economic Calendar (13Jan2025) Notable Highlights The Consumer Price Index (CPI) should be the most watched data for the coming week. CPI is one of the economic data used as a reference for inflation. This should influence the Fed’s decision on interest rates, which is likely to bring some volatility to the market. The Producer Price Index (PPI) reveals the inflation that hits the producer first. If it goes up, this implies that producers have inflationary price pressure, which should be passed on to the consumers. Some view this as the prelude to inflation. Core Retail Sales and Retail Sales will usher in an understanding of consumer retail consumption.
CPI data will be released this week - Economic Calendar of the week 13Jan25
avatarKYHBKO
01-06

My investing muse for week of 06Jan25

My Investing Muse (06Jan2025) Layoffs & Closure news "The Tech industry witnessed a 42% decline in layoffs compared to 2023, which saw the highest number of job cuts in the last four years. Over 260,000 employees were handed pink slips by over 1,200 companies this year. The spate of layoffs in 2023 was driven by factors such as economic downturn, considering rising inflation and interest rates. The eventual decrease in consumer spending hit the tech industry which relies heavily on their demand for its products and services. Some other key reasons that prompted companies to cut jobs were the stock market downturn, shifting market dynamics, and largely the over-hiring spree during the pandemic." Will the layoff trend continue into 2025? Is recovery in sight? - Source: India Express US h
My investing muse for week of 06Jan25
avatarKYHBKO
2024-12-09

Preview of the market (09Dec2024) - is C3.AI becoming profitable?

Public Holidays There will be no public holidays in Singapore, Hong Kong, The USA or China in the coming week. Economic Calendar (09Dec24) Notable Highlights The most watched macro data will be the Core CPI and CPI data. This is one of the references for inflation. This would be closely watched data as the Federal Reserve is likely to have this as part of the consideration for the coming interest rate decision in Dec 2024. The next important economic data will be PPI. This represents the inflation that hit producers/manufacturers - an amount that is likely to translate into inflation for the consumers when their products hit the shelves. This can be seen as a prelude to CPI (inflation). If there is an increase in PPI, the impact will also be seen in CPI. The 10-year Note auction will be a
Preview of the market (09Dec2024) - is C3.AI becoming profitable?
avatarKYHBKO
01-06

Non-Manufacturing PMI, jobs and unemployment - how will they fare in this week (06Jan2025)

Public Holidays There will be no public holidays in China, Hong Kong, Singapore, or America next week. Economic Calendar (06Jan2025) Notable Highlights The forecast for the S&P Global Services PMI stands at 58.5 and expectation of growth compared to the previous month. ISM non-manufacturing PMI will also be released with a forecast of 53.2. A number that is greater than 50 implies growth. The ISM non-manufacturing prices will also be released. These will reveal any inflationary pricing pressures faced by non-manufacturing businesses (services) sectors. JOLT job openings will be updated. The forecast is 7.77 million job openings. We can see some updates or revisions to the previous months. In the same week, there will also be an update about ADP nonfar
Non-Manufacturing PMI, jobs and unemployment - how will they fare in this week (06Jan2025)
avatarKYHBKO
2024-12-15

Preview of the week starting 16 Dec 2024 - is Jabil worth a look?

Public Holidays There will be no public holidays in Singapore, Hong Kong, The USA or China in the coming week. Economic Calendar (16Dec24) Notable Highlights FOMC interest rate decision will be the most watched news in the coming week. The market expects an interest rate cut. A contrary decision is likely to cause some market volatility. The core PCE Price Index will be the next most watched indicator for inflation. This is the preferred reference that the Federal Reserve uses for inflation. Surprises in this can lead to market volatility. S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI reflects the growth or contraction of the manufacturing sector. The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index shows the development of the manufacturing sectors in Philadelphia. S&P Global US Services PMI reflects the g
Preview of the week starting 16 Dec 2024 - is Jabil worth a look?
avatarKYHBKO
2024-12-30

layoffs, market top and free buffett tip - my investing muse (30Dec2024)

My Investing Muse (30Dec24) Layoffs & Closure news Photo Credit: Fabrice COFFRINI | AFP | Getty Images From X user Evan:Google CEO Sundar Pichai and other Google leaders told employees last week at a 2025 strategy meeting that “the stakes are high” for next year - CNBC “I think it’s really important we internalize the urgency of this moment, and need to move faster as a company. The stakes are high. These are disruptive moments. In 2025, we need to be relentlessly focused on unlocking the benefits of this technology and solve real user problems.” - Sundar Pichai In summary, layoffs are coming. Now that Trump has won, they are revising all of their numbers during the Biden administration. The govt initially reported Q2 of 2024 had 653,000 job gains. It was actually NEGATIVE. There was a
layoffs, market top and free buffett tip - my investing muse (30Dec2024)