Dead Cat Bounce vs. True Bottom: Where Are We Now?

After a series of declines, the market has become increasingly cautious about any rebound. Most people believe this is merely a dead cat bounce in a bear market, with further drops likely to come. However, some argue that with Trump softening his stance on tariffs, the impact of tariffs on the market may lessen going forward. If a recession can be avoided, the market's downside potential might be limited. Investors are divided on where we are in the current cycle. What’s your take? Is this a dead cat bounce or have we already hit the bottom?

avatarKYHBKO
2025-05-25

PCE - Economic Calendar (26May25)

Public Holidays There are no public holidays in China and Singapore. America is closed on 26May25 as they celebrate Memorial Day. Hong Kong is closed on 31May25 as they celebrate Tuen Ng Day (also known as Dragonboat Festival). Economic Calendar (26May25) Notable Highlights (some are taken from Grok) Fed Chair Powell’s remarks could provide insights into monetary policy, potentially influencing markets depending on his stance on interest rates and inflation. Previous Durable Goods Orders (Apr) were at 7.5% (month-over-month). No forecast is provided, but a strong reading could signal robust economic activity, while a decline might raise concerns. CB Consumer Confidence (May) is forecasted at 88.0, up from 86.0. A drop in consumer confidence could indicate weaker consumer spe
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PCE - Economic Calendar (26May25)
avatarKYHBKO
2025-05-25

S&P500 market outlook (26May25)

Market Outlook of S&P500 - 26May25 Technical observations: MACD - a top crossover should be completed soon, and this suggests a potential downtrend is coming. Exponential Moving Averages (EMA) lines are showing an uptrend. However, the 3 lines are converging, and a trend reversal is coming. Both the 50 MA line and the 200 MA line are showing an uptrend. Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) shows more buying than selling momentum. The daily interval is showing a “Strong Buy" for the S&P 500 index. From 20 technical indicators, there are 14 indicators showing a “Buy” rating and 6 indicators showing a “Sell” rating. Short-Term Outlook: Bullish The Morning Doji Star and Morning Star (both emerging as of May 23) are strong bullish reversal patterns, suggesting that the current pullback may be neari
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S&P500 market outlook (26May25)