Michael Esther
Michael Esther
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Markets Aren’t Random—They’re Cyclical

I don’t “guess” the market.I map it.Every year, I hand-draw a roadmap of how the market is likely to move — based on📆 seasonality,🔁 3–7 year market cycles, and🧠 how institutions actually position risk.Swipe through these photos.• This was 2023• This was 2024 into 2025• This was Nov 2024 → April 2025👉 Every single thing played out.Not because I’m psychic —but because markets repeat when you know what to watch and when to act.This is how I’ve been able to:•Catch massive upside moves•Hedge properly before pullbacks•Turn small positions into outsized % gains•Stay calm while others panicAnd tonight, I’m doing it again.🧭 In tonight’s market review, I’m walking through:•How I build my yearly roadmap•Where we are right now in the cycle•How I’m positioning trades going into the new year•What I’m bu
Markets Aren’t Random—They’re Cyclical
avatarMichael Esther
2025-12-31

Be Unbreakable in 2026

In 2026, you want to make $1,000,000+ but don't have any skill or $0. This is perfect for you.All it takes is 90 days of focus. Wake up early and do 1 thing only. The one thing that will change your life forever. Don't do anything else.DON'T THINK ABOUT IT, don't plan it, don't go on scroll on tiktok to waste time. Just wake up and go to the gym without thinking, start making videos for your business, calling your customers. DO SOMETHING, take action.No matter how small the action is, DO IT. no matter how sick or lazy you are just do it. You'll find that results will start to pile up as soon as you are consistent and show up everyday.BUILD STRONG HABITS but also focus on erasing the bad ones. For example, if you want to master daytrading, wait 30 minutes after the market opens before you t
Be Unbreakable in 2026
avatarMichael Esther
2025-12-30

Kill the Hype: 5 Prompts That Filter 95% of Stocks

A few years ago, I turned $350 to almost $1,000,000+ in 9 months.Today, you don't need my trading strategy.Use these 5 CHATGPT prompts and see the magic: 1. Core Business & Fundamentals“Analyze this stock as a professional analyst. Cover business model, financial strength, unit economics, moat, management quality, and long-term upside. Be concise and structured. Stock: [name].”2. Technical Structure & Market Behavior“Break down this stock’s technical setup using trend, momentum, support/resistance, volume, and key indicators. Describe possible scenarios, make predictions. Chart [paste].”3. Strategy Stress Test“Evaluate how this stock performs under different strategies (intraday, swing, position) across bull, bear, and sideways markets. Focus on behavior, risk, and expectancy. Stra
Kill the Hype: 5 Prompts That Filter 95% of Stocks
avatarMichael Esther
2025-12-23

The Market Trap: Watching SPY While Energy Decides Everything

Everyone is watching rates, GDP, GOLD and the YEN this week. $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ needs to hold above $675 this week to go higher towards $690 OR we can pull back under towards $670 to form DOJI on monthly chart. (check out chart to study it)Almost no one is watching what actually breaks markets.That’s the trap.This week alone:• US GDP drops Tuesday at 8:30am, a delayed report with market moving power• SPY is sitting on a knife edge between $675–$690, with an expected move as low as $673• Markets are open reduced hours and no trading Thursday, creating liquidity air pockets• Commodities just hit record highs: gold above $2,165, copper and silver at all-time highsBut zoom out.While traders argue over 5–10 SPY points, the real pressure i
The Market Trap: Watching SPY While Energy Decides Everything
avatarMichael Esther
2025-12-23

Why High Expectations Ruin Good Trades

Advanced trading tip:A lot of trading mistakes is due to having too HIGH expectations for big results. This causes stress, anxiety, poor judgement and overconfidence.This can happen in 2 ways:1. You lost money now you want to make it back. *Well, then you start to force trades, revenge trade, take big positions and make a bunch of other mistakes.2. You made a lot of money now you think you are unstoppable.* You got lucky a few times so now you think you don't need to manage risk, increase position size and double your money.🔑Takeaway* Stay focused and keep calm at all times.* Continue improving trading system and process* In the middle of trading don't change your process only do it afterwards when you review.* Consistency is what you are striving for as a trader nothing else (yes, nothing
Why High Expectations Ruin Good Trades
avatarMichael Esther
2025-12-19

Inflation Breaks, Santa Rally Targets SPY $690+

Inflation is breaking and Santa is coming early first target $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ $690+ 🎅This report quietly flipped the FED’s calculus:• CPI YoY: 2.7% (down from 3.1%)• Core CPI YoY: 2.6% (down from 3.0%)• Core CPI MoM: +0.16% (nearly HALF last month)Add this:• Jobless claims still elevated at 224K• Philly Fed at –10.2 → growth is coolingTranslation👇Inflation is decelerating without demand re-accelerating.That’s the Fed’s dream scenario.Lower inflation + softer growth = more confidence to cut rates, sooner and deeper.Liquidity expectations rise → multiples expand → risk assets melt up.This is how Santa Claus rallies start:Not with euphoria but with falling inflation, soft data, and a dovish Fed reaction function.Its not too late to di
Inflation Breaks, Santa Rally Targets SPY $690+
avatarMichael Esther
2025-12-17

Not Fear, But Anticipation: Markets Hold Breath Before Jobs Data

THE MARKET JUST TOOK A STEP BACK AND IT’S NOT FEAR. IT’S ANTICIPATION.US stock futures slipped ahead of a critical US jobs report.S&P 500 futures $E-mini S&P 500 - main 2603(ESmain)$ –0.2%.Nasdaq futures $E-mini Nasdaq 100 - main 2603(NQmain)$ –0.4%.Brent crude $WTI Crude Oil - main 2602(CLmain)$ broke below $60 for the first time since May.Bitcoin dropped >1%, back near $86,000.This isn’t random selling.These are the numbers no one is saying out loud:• 10-year Treasury yields at ~4.18%, still near cycle highs despite rate-cut expectations.• Brent oil –1.6% in a single session, signaling demand stress, not supply relief.• Markets are pricin
Not Fear, But Anticipation: Markets Hold Breath Before Jobs Data
avatarMichael Esther
2025-12-16

Why Most Traders Fail: It’s Not What You Think

The secret to growing $1,000 into $100,000 in trading isn’t the strategy (its pyschological)Most traders think they have many problems:• selling winners early• hesitation to enter setups• fear of giving back gains• discomfort with volatilityBut these are not separate flaws.They are one emotion.Your nervous system is optimized to escape discomfort, not to execute probability.That’s it.Here’s the truth NO ONE talks about:Every profitable behavior in trading feels uncomfortable at first.• Holding winners feels unsafe• Entering good setups feels exposed• Letting price fluctuate feels threatening• Not locking profits feels irresponsibleThose feelings don’t mean you’re wrong.They mean your brain is shifting from survival mode to probabilistic thinking.That transition always feels bad.You are NOT
Why Most Traders Fail: It’s Not What You Think
avatarMichael Esther
2025-12-16

10 Trading Prompts That Rewire How You Trade

USE CHATGPT AS YOUR EXPERT TRADING COACH, so turn $2000 into $25,000 in 1 month.Here's 10 prompts for you to BOOKMARKET and use to learn FREE1️⃣ Edge Definition Prompt“Based on today’s market conditions, what is ONE high-probability setup I am allowed to trade today, and what exact conditions must be present before I enter?”Why this matters:Most accounts die from too many ideas. Growth comes from one repeatable edge.2️⃣ Risk Containment Prompt“If this trade loses, what exact dollar amount am I willing to lose, and what rules will prevent me from trading again today?”This rewires your brain to see losses as contained events, not threats.3️⃣ Pre-Commitment Prompt“If this trade goes in my favor, what price or condition must occur before I am allowed to exit?”You decide before emotion appears,
10 Trading Prompts That Rewire How You Trade
avatarMichael Esther
2025-12-16

Four Catalysts That Decide $SPY’s Next Major Move

4 events that will decide $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ move to $700+ or back down to $650:Here’s what every trader must watch 👇1️⃣Dec 16 – US Labour Market Data→ strong jobs = rates stay higher = risk assets wobble→ weak jobs = cuts back on table = SPY fuel2️⃣ Dec 18–19 – Bank of Japan Rate Decision→ a hike tightens global liquidity→ yen strength = risk-off shockwaves3️⃣ Dec 18 – CPI (Inflation Report)→ the market’s reality check→ one print can reset rate expectations instantly4️⃣ Friday – Final OPEX of 2025→ Dealers unwind hedges→ Gamma flips = sharp, fast movesTranslation for traders:Low volatility now ≠ low risk.This is where big money positions early and retail gets surprised.Prepare your levels.Size correctly.React don’t predict.The next
Four Catalysts That Decide $SPY’s Next Major Move
avatarMichael Esther
2025-12-11

The Fed Just Reset the Market Reality

FED’s December Projections Have Exposed a New Market Reality.The numbers out of today’s FOMC release should freeze every investor in their tracks.Unemployment is now projected to climb to 4.5% in 2025.Seven Fed officials penciled in zero rate cuts for 2026.And the Fed’s median rate outlook for 2028 still sits at 3.1%, miles above the “easy money” markets were betting on.This is not dovish. This is not easing.This is the Fed quietly admitting inflation is not dead and won’t be for years.Bond markets reacted instantly. Treasury yields spiked. Rate sensitive sectors cracked. And futures whipsawed as traders realized the Fed’s path is far tighter than the market narrative of the last eight weeks.The message is brutal:If the Fed is right, growth slows.If the market is right, inflation stays sti
The Fed Just Reset the Market Reality
avatarMichael Esther
2025-12-09

A Pivotal Week for Global Markets

BREAKING: GLOBAL MARKETS JUST ENTERED THE MOST IMPORTANT WEEK OF 2025. $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ chart needs to hold above trend at $684-685 or next level of support is at $680 (then lower). But, if it holds then $688 and $690+ (check chart to study it)SPY futures ticked 0.1% higher, sitting just shy of an all-time high. $Netflix(NFLX)$ jumped 1.5% pre-market after new antitrust concerns surfaced around its Warner Bros. acquisition.Several Fed officials hinted at a rate cut on Wednesday. But under the optimism lies a deeper uncertainty whether the rate path stays friendly in 2026, and whether the AI-driven surge is truly sustainable.Bond markets sold off after ECB’s Schnabel declared that European
A Pivotal Week for Global Markets
avatarMichael Esther
2025-12-09

15 Dovish Powell Statements That Signal Easing

15 BULLISH Things Jerome Powell Has Said (or Could Say) that are DOVISHStatements that imply easing, rate cuts, or confidence inflation is falling 1. “We are seeing clear and sustained disinflation in several key components.”2. “The balance of risks to our dual mandate is becoming more two-sided.”3. “The labor market is cooling, and wage growth is moderating.”4. “We are prepared to adjust policy as needed to support the economy.”5. “Inflation expectations remain well anchored, which gives us flexibility.”6. “We don’t need inflation to be at 2% to begin reducing the policy rate.”7. “Policy is already in a restrictive stance, and real rates are near their peak.”8. “We see risks of overtightening and will take them into account.”9. “Several indicators show supply and demand in labor markets a
15 Dovish Powell Statements That Signal Easing
avatarMichael Esther
2025-12-06

SPY/Global Markets – PCE Pre-Impact Setup

GLOBAL MARKETS JUST FIRED A WARNING SHOT BEFORE PCE.This morning at 10:00am EST will change everything. $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ and European futures rose as traders positioned ahead of the most important inflation print of 2025 PCE and FEDs expected rate cut on Dec 10.The numbers are already shifting:SPY and European markets up 0.2%Asian markets erased a 0.7% drop to secure a second week of gains.Confidence is returning not from tech euphoria, but from rising expectations of a 25 bps Fed cut.Bitcoin holds $92,000 for now.Copper just hit a new high.Silver flipped from red to green.But the real story is in the labor market.Treasury yields settled after Thursday’s selloff, driven by data showing the job market is not cracking it’s tightenin
SPY/Global Markets – PCE Pre-Impact Setup
avatarMichael Esther
2025-12-06

US Labor Market – AI-Driven Tightness

US labor market is tightening in a way that should unsettle everyone. Jobless claims just fell to a 3-year low, while the unemployment rate has hovered under 4% for 23 straight months the longest streak since the 1960s. Productivity, meanwhile, surged 4.7% last quarter, the fastest pace in two decades.But here’s the part nobody wants to say out loud:AI is doing the heavy lifting and it’s replacing more than it’s hiring.Corporate surveys show 37% of firms have already automated tasks previously done by employees. Tech companies report efficiency gains of 15–30% after cutting staff. The average US worker now outputs the equivalent of 1.4 workers from 2019.This isn’t a healthy labor market.It’s a labor market being hollowed out in real timemade “stronger” because machines don’t quit, don’t sl
US Labor Market – AI-Driven Tightness
avatarMichael Esther
2025-12-05

SPY Eyes 690 as Global Bonds Reprice

THIS IS BAD: $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ just went GREEN ahead of the most important payrolls print in 2025.As long as it can hold above 684 and 680 this week it should break 690 within 9 days. This chart confirms it (make sure to study it).Stocks in Asia and Europe surged overnight.US futures stayed firmly green.Traders are now betting that a Fed rate cut could ignite a worldwide rally into year-end so a massive explosion is coming.Europe’s Stoxx 600 rose 0.3%, with autos and industrials leading.Asian markets hit their highest levels in two weeks, powered by Japanese heavyweights.SPY is set for an eighth gain in 9 sessions.But here’s the part nobody is highlighting.Global bonds slumped again.Japanese yields are now driving the entire world’s
SPY Eyes 690 as Global Bonds Reprice
avatarMichael Esther
2025-12-04

The Market Whisper: Signals Point to a Reshaped Economy by Mid-2026

The labour market is no longer strong and 6 months from now it will be worse.Job openings have fallen over 30% from last year. Layoff announcements are up 42%.Behind the headlines, pressure is building everywhere:US foreclosures have risen 9 straight quarters, with filings up 34% YoY.Rents are at records over 50% of tenants now spend more than a third of their income just to stay housed.Homelessness surged 12% this year, the largest jump on record.The market is whispering what the data will shout in six months.AI is accelerating the shift.Nearly 20–25% of task-based jobs are expected to be automated or restructured by mid-2026.Back-office roles, customer support, logistics, and entry-level analysis are already being rebuilt around models not manpower.This isn’t a slowdown.It’s a reshaping.
The Market Whisper: Signals Point to a Reshaped Economy by Mid-2026
avatarMichael Esther
2025-12-04

SPY Rebound: Targeting $690 as Payroll Data Looms

Markets aren't paying attention to US payroll (labor market data) $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ will need to break this $684 level to climb higher towards $690 (it should hit within 10 days) Key level of support is at $678-$680 (check chart to confirm)The day the market revealed its direction without saying a word.While headlines focused elsewhere, SPY climbed for a second straight session (this is why Dec 15 $690 is a good swing play)SPY rose 0.2%, extending the cautious rebound from November’s pullback.Treasuries firmed. The Dollar strengthened.Bitcoin surged above $93,000, hitting a two-week high after shedding more than $1 trillion in value during the recent downturn.The tape moved before the narrative caught up.All of it is happening ahead
SPY Rebound: Targeting $690 as Payroll Data Looms
avatarMichael Esther
2025-12-02

SPY - December Opens With Cross-Asset Stress Shock

BREAKING: Dec opens with $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ down almost 1%A single session revealing how fragile the market really is.SPY key levels of support are at $678 and $675. If we fail that there big demand zone from $670-$672.50 (see chart below).The day the “soft-landing” dream met its first real test.While traders positioned for a calm December, Bitcoin collapsed below $87,000, triggering a broad crypto-equity spillover.SPY futures slipped 0.5%. MAG7 all opened red. $Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)$ fell 1.1% in pre-market alone.The market moved before the bell even rang.Japan fired the second shot.The 2-year JGB yield surged to its highest level since 2008, after Governor Ueda delivered the strongest
SPY - December Opens With Cross-Asset Stress Shock
avatarMichael Esther
2025-11-30

10 catalysts for SPY in Dec 2025 for target 700+

10 catalysts for SPY in Dec 2025 for target 700+ (possibly 710+)1. 25–50 bp cut on Dec 10 (releasing dot plot)→ $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ $Microsoft(MSFT)$ $JPMorgan Chase(JPM)$ $SoFi Technologies Inc.(SOFI)$ 2. Decrease in November inflation (CPI) report→ $Alphabet(GOOG)$ $Alphabet(GOOGL)$ $Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)$ $Visa(V)$ $UnitedHealth(UNH)$ 3. BITCOIN rally back towards $100,000+ and $120,000+→
10 catalysts for SPY in Dec 2025 for target 700+

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