Greg Vogt
Greg Vogt
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avatarGreg Vogt
03-06 11:38
$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$ The position increased from 3% to nearly 5%...It's one of the stocks I didn't buy enough of. I started to increase my position and catch the falling knife, willing to raise the cost and increase the position. The way to cut the defense budget is to make defense spending more efficient, not to reduce defense capabilities. Only AI can improve efficiency and reduce costs at the same time.
avatarGreg Vogt
03-06 11:37
$NVIDIA(NVDA)$ Nvidia's cycle doesn't stem from its "B2B" or "non - platform" nature. It's because it's always a "capital good" or "durable consumer good." If a company's products are "fast - moving consumer goods" that are repeatedly consumed, demand will be relatively stable, like in food and beverages, online games, or coal. But if a company's products are "capital goods" or "durable consumer goods," demand downstream usually fluctuates a lot because they can be reused.So, there's a mistake we made when applying Jevons' paradox to computing power. As model costs drop and computing efficiency rises, AI scenarios do expand and overall computing power demand surges. But here's the difference: coal is a one - time - use re
avatarGreg Vogt
03-05 12:20
$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$ The number of shares has increased by 500 million (40%) over two and a half years. It's like an inflationary AI magic stock. There will come a time when, after a financial report, the magic won't work and the stock price will be cut in half. A price - to - sales ratio of 68 might be the most outrageous one for a "technology" company with a market value of over 100 billion in the entire universe right now.
avatarGreg Vogt
03-05 12:19
$NVIDIA(NVDA)$ Chatting with a friend, we kept discussing NVIDIA... I said that compared to its B2B business, I'm more excited about NVIDIA's potential B2C business. I'm particularly bullish on the Project Digits that might be launched in June this year. This AI - powered computer is reportedly priced at around $3,000 per unit and is likely to be a big hit. It could be a breakthrough product that propels NVIDIA to a new level. Compared to B2B business, B2C business is more stable, more predictable, and has higher stickiness.If AI Agent could become the new operating system and fundamentally change the way people interact with devices, Digits might be a huge success and could very likely push NVIDIA's stock price above $20
avatarGreg Vogt
03-04 12:43
$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$ Bought at 6 dollars... long. Predicted 2025 and first few quarters of 2026 to be a wash because of the presidential election, and poor condition of US...going to get worse, before it gets better. Buyers market with caution.
avatarGreg Vogt
03-04 12:41
$NVIDIA(NVDA)$ The best strategy to go long on NVDA is to go long on TSM and AVGO. For a more aggressive approach, you can go long on ALAB and VRT. However, the best method is to go long on QQQ.$Microstrategy(MSTR)$ serves as an early observation indicator for market RISK ON/OFF. Today, BTC fell by 4 points, while this stock rose by 5 points.
$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$ Palantir is a big data analytics company that was initially established to tackle financial fraud and later gained fame for helping the U.S. locate Bin Laden.The company's success is mainly attributed to several factors:1) Unique data processing capabilities. The two major platforms it has developed, Gotham and Foundry, which are based on ontology, give the company a unique edge in complex data analysis and have led to long-term service for both the government and business sectors.2) Exclusive access to scarce data for training. Palantir started its business by serving government intelligence agencies, such as the FBI and CIA. The data from these agencies is mostly inaccessible to the ma
$NVIDIA(NVDA)$ I feel quite speechless when I see those who gloat and hope for a Nvidia crash. When has A-shares ever been better off after a Nvidia crash? It is the cornerstone of the entire artificial intelligence industry chain. Whether it is domestic chain or Da chain, or robots, AI hardware and software, none can remain unaffected. Nvidia's CUDA is like the iOS ecosystem of the entire artificial intelligence industry. If Nvidia continues to crash at the current valuation (lower than Xiaomi and Apple's P/E this year), it means that AI-based large models may have hit a brick wall and the path of linear progress may not be viable...Yesterday's crash was largely related to GPT-4.5 falling far short of expectations. Some
$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$ Technical says 50 days breakpoint is 83 and 200 days breakpoint is 54. If it falls below 54, it will crash. It must bounce back over 83 for recovery and Palantir has the goods but complete market sentiment has deteriorated. I look for an additional 20 to 30 percent decline through all segments in the coming weeks.
$NVIDIA(NVDA)$ Discussing the rise of the East and the decline of the West,The rise of the East and the decline of the West is gradually becoming a reality. It's really quite magical, and we may be in the midst of this process.As for the situation in the US stock market last night, everyone saw it. Almost all the related AI and tech stockshave returned to the low point after the impact of DeepSeek, and it seems to be continuing.And in yesterday's Hong Kong and A-share markets, we also saw the resilience. Our market here only came back after the Hong Kong market turned red in the afternoon.For subsequent trading, really, keep a close eye on the Hong Kong market. Our market will definitely follow, although a bit late.So, we
$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$ Recently, stocks like $Palantir (PLTR)$, $Axon Enterprise Inc (AXON)$, and AppLovin, which have truly undergone qualitative changes due to AI and also have extremely high valuations, have all been under pressure.However, I believe that at its current level, PLTR has become attractive enough for me.
$NVIDIA(NVDA)$ Nvidia's performance exceeded expectations, but there was little movement in after-hours trading. One possible reason is that it has risen too much over the past two years and needs to build up strength. Another possibility is that there is doubt about whether Nvidia's performance can continue to exceed expectations in the future. If we follow the guidance for the first quarter, it is highly likely that the performance will continue to exceed expectations this year. According to our estimated performance for this year, the P/E ratio is about 22 times. This valuation should be able to withstand certain risks. Perhaps it will be the time for Nvidia to regain its momentum when the performance is truly tested i
$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$ Palantir's market value is close to $300 billion, having grown from $20 billion. I am extremely grateful for the opportunity to meet the brilliant Palantir programmers in Silicon Valley and learn from them. This allowed me to iterate my software architecture fundamentals during my prime years. Now, the new software architecture has ultimately changed the global landscape. Doge has proven to the world that the advantage of India's software outsourcing industry has been completely destroyed!
$NVIDIA(NVDA)$ Nvidia has already booked more than 70% of TSMC's CoWoS-L advanced packaging capacity for this year, due to the strong demand for the Blackwell GPU.According to media reports, the capacity of CoWoS-L will increase by 20% per quarter, and the annual shipment is expected to exceed 2 million units. The report cited unnamed industry sources.Nvidia will begin to reduce the production of Hopper H100/H200 chips this year, as the output of Blackwell is increasing. CoWoS-L will be used for Blackwell B200, B300 chips, and will also leave room for more HBM memory chips.CoWoS-L uses LSI (Local Silicon Interconnect) chips for die-to-die interconnection and RDL (Redistribution Layer) for power and signal transmission.
$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$ From a 3% position, it has risen to almost 5%…… It is one of the stocks that I didn't buy enough of. I started to increase my position and catch the falling knife, willing to raise the cost and increase the position.The way to cut the defense budget is to make defense spending more efficient, not to reduce defense capabilities. Only AI can increase efficiency and reduce costs at the same time.PLTR's earnings report has never been about government revenue.
$NVIDIA(NVDA)$ I started hesitating last week about whether to reduce my positions before the earnings report. After the adjustments over the past few days, I actually feel much more relaxed and can sleep soundly while waiting for the report. It’s obvious that the results will exceed the sell - side consensus expectation of a 73% year - on - year increase. The main gap lies in the fact that after DeepSeek’s explosive popularity, domestic companies, in order to avoid export control risks, have started to hoard H - series cards frantically. Alibaba’s capex in the fourth quarter was twice as high as expected. There are also rumors about Tencent’s H20 reserves on the supply chain side. These should all be reflected in the gui
$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$ The reason why financial analysts call Palantir over valued is because they cannot find AI in a spreadsheet. The earnings and margins will continue to be jaw dropping as corporate America will need Palantir’s software to be competitive. These companies don’t need Nvidia chips but they will need Palantir to grow their business.
$NVIDIA(NVDA)$ 135-149 range until earnings! Post that, It could go to 160 or come back to 129 depending on the outlook. High pribability to go up as the guidance is already confirmed and Blackwell is ready to be shipped! Researchers have developed an artificial intelligence (AI) tool that can diagnose a range of infections and health conditions in one sweep, by screening immune-cell gene sequences in blood samples.In a study of nearly 600 people, published in Science on 20 February1, the tool identified whether participants were healthy or had COVID-19, type 1 diabetes, HIV or the autoimmune disease lupus, as well as whether they had recently received a flu vaccine.
$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$ 2 things I've said before the huge non cash stock compensation is bringing down earnings and PE reason cash flow is largely disproportionate to GAAP earnings .Palantir has an excellent balance sheet.No operational or revenue issues.Hopefully this will be cut in future and a good portion dropped to bottom line.Karp and others have taken their fair share time to cut back.Second as Karp points out there is the "Rule of 40" used to substantiate health of software services company.Adding profit margin % and sales growth% if over 40 is consider financially healthy .Palantir at 81 after this past quarter.Not sure how many institutions consider this when doing their due diligence or how much wei
$NVIDIA(NVDA)$ Now, the founder of DeepSeek is in the limelight and no one dares to say anything, but time will tell everything. The big domestic companies that are developing large AI models are all victims of the chip shortage. In the present and the future, it will be even more difficult to obtain NVIDIA chips, and everyone will have to resort to buying them at high prices on the black market. This will severely hinder the development of the domestic AI industry. The chip shortage has added fuel to the fire of technological decoupling.

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