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1小龙女1
2022-09-08
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Apple's official website removes iPhone 13 Pro from shelves, price reduction promotion iPhone 13
1小龙女1
2022-09-04
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Is 3.5% the psychological barrier for the Fed?
1小龙女1
2022-08-22
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Hong Kong stocks open | Hang Seng Index open low 1.01%, Hang Seng Technology Index fell 1.41%
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08:33","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Apple's official website removes iPhone 13 Pro from shelves, price reduction promotion iPhone 13","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1161899094","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"9月8日讯，苹果今日早些时候发布iPhone14系列手机。苹果下调了iPhone13售价，iPhone13降价促销。此外，iPhone13Pro下架。苹果官网显示，iPhone13的128GB、256","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>September 8 News: Apple released the iPhone 14 series of mobile phones earlier today. Apple lowered the price of the iPhone 13, and the price of the iPhone 13 was reduced. In addition, the iPhone 13 Pro was removed from the shelves. Apple's official website shows that the 128GB, 256GB, and 512GB versions of iPhone 13 are priced at 5,399 yuan, 6,299 yuan, and 8,099 yuan respectively. Compared with the offering prices of 5,999 yuan, 6,799 yuan, and 8,399 yuan, they are 600 yuan, 500 yuan, and 300 yuan cheaper respectively.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple's official website removes iPhone 13 Pro from shelves, price reduction promotion iPhone 13</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple's official website removes iPhone 13 Pro from shelves, price reduction promotion iPhone 13\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-09-08 08:33</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>September 8 News: Apple released the iPhone 14 series of mobile phones earlier today. Apple lowered the price of the iPhone 13, and the price of the iPhone 13 was reduced. In addition, the iPhone 13 Pro was removed from the shelves. Apple's official website shows that the 128GB, 256GB, and 512GB versions of iPhone 13 are priced at 5,399 yuan, 6,299 yuan, and 8,099 yuan respectively. Compared with the offering prices of 5,999 yuan, 6,799 yuan, and 8,399 yuan, they are 600 yuan, 500 yuan, and 300 yuan cheaper respectively.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3ed560ee8ff75e1b046588039c31d454","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1161899094","content_text":"9月8日讯，苹果今日早些时候发布iPhone14系列手机。苹果下调了iPhone13售价，iPhone13降价促销。此外，iPhone13Pro下架。苹果官网显示，iPhone13的128GB、256GB、512GB版本售价分别为5399元、6299元、8099元。相比发售价5999元、6799元、8399元，分别便宜了600元、500元、300元。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":745,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":669818403,"gmtCreate":1662293328707,"gmtModify":1676537031955,"author":{"id":"3470796964701736","authorId":"3470796964701736","name":"1小龙女1","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3470796964701736","idStr":"3470796964701736"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"😀","listText":"😀","text":"😀","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/669818403","repostId":"1191824345","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1191824345","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1662275629,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1191824345?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-09-04 15:13","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Is 3.5% the psychological barrier for the Fed?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1191824345","media":"招商宏观静思录","summary":"美联储已经“加不起息”了：今年美国财政部支付的债务利息约为名义GDP的3.15%，高于2018年的3.05%；上半年美联储在公开市场操作中巨亏10504亿美元，2018年全年仅亏损926.1亿美元。3","content":"<p><html><head></head><body><b>The Federal Reserve \"can't afford to raise interest rates\": the debt interest paid by the U.S. Treasury this year is about 3.15% of nominal GDP, up from 3.05% in 2018; In the first half of the year, the Federal Reserve suffered a huge loss of US $1,050.4 billion in open market operations, and only lost US $92.61 billion in 2018. The 10Y U.S. bond yield of 3.5% may be the psychological barrier for the Fed. In addition, the employment target will eventually defeat the inflation target, and the unemployment rate is on the way to a \"sustained\" recovery. There is a high probability that the rate hike will end by the end of the year. U.S. debt and U.S. stocks are close to the left. The peak of the U.S. dollar needs to wait until the European energy crisis warning is lifted. The external environment still has a certain negative impact on RMB-denominated assets.</b></p><p><b>The overwhelmed finance and the Federal Reserve that can't afford to raise interest rates. 1) Treasury Bond interest paid by the U.S. Treasury this year is approximately 3.15% of nominal GDP, up from 3.05% in 2018.</b>Is excessive fiscal pressure the reason for the Fed to end its rate hike? This is at least the reason to restrain fiscal easing. After the economic growth slows down, if it is difficult to exert fiscal strength, it will inevitably aggravate the downward pressure on the economy, and then trigger a shift in the Fed's monetary policy. 2018 is a good example.<b>2) Under the impact of rate hike and shrinking balance sheet, the Federal Reserve has continued to suffer huge losses.</b>In the first half of the year, the Federal Reserve directly lost more than US $1,050.4 billion, and the peak size of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet was only US $8,995.49 billion. In 2018, the Federal Reserve ended its rate hike after suffering a full-year loss of $92.61 billion.</p><p><b>So, from the perspective of rate hike costs, where is the psychological barrier of the Fed? The 3.5% 10Y U.S. bond yield seems to be the psychological barrier for the Fed.</b>The roller coaster trend of the 10-year U.S. bond yield since June is related to changes in the pace and stance of the Fed's shrinking balance sheet. At the FOMC in May, the Federal Reserve announced that it would reduce US debt by US $30 billion per month from June to August. But in fact, the Federal Reserve only reduced U.S. debt by $5.48 billion in June. Moreover, the Fed's stance in July was also dovish. From the data point of view, it seems that the Federal Reserve resumed its shrinking balance sheet after the yields of U.S. bonds of various maturities fell back. Since the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield peaked at 3.495% in June, the 3.5% 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is likely to be regarded as the psychological barrier for the Federal Reserve. Of course, this does not mean that the 10-year U.S. bond yield or benchmark interest rate will not exceed this level, but that as long as it sees economic data support or political demands allow it, the Fed is very likely to turn dove around this level.</p><p><b>Do realistic conditions allow the Fed to turn dove? Using employment targets to defeat inflation targets, the September FOMC may be a watershed. 1）</b>U.S. inflation is at its top, and the center will move down significantly from the end of the year to the beginning of next year.<b>2）</b>The employment target will eventually defeat the inflation target. Once the unemployment rate continues to rise, employment will become the core contradiction. The rebound in the unemployment rate in August and the deterioration of high-frequency indicators such as initial applications and renewal applications have indicated that the job market has begun to undergo some negative changes. The probability of ending the rate hike at the end of the year increases.<b>3）</b>When will the Fed turn dove? We are guessing that September will be a watershed post-FOMC. After the August employment data was released, rate hike's 75BP expectations in September cooled slightly. However, we also emphasized in our comments on the Jackson Hole global central bank meeting that Powell's sudden eagle change may be related to Biden's \"support rate defense war\" before the mid-term elections. At a time when inflation is difficult to fall sharply, expressing determination to suppress inflation can also win voter support. But recently, as the Federal Reserve turned hawkish, U.S. stocks began to fall. We expect that as the mid-term elections approach, the Federal Reserve will also take into account asset prices and market risk appetite. Therefore, if 75BP rate hike boots are launched at the FOMC in September, the probability of turning doves will become greater.</p><p><b>How does the market interpret it? Both U.S. bonds and U.S. stocks are close to the left. 1）</b>Opportunities to be bullish on the left side of U.S. bonds of various maturities are gradually emerging.<b>2）</b>The last decline of U.S. stocks has not yet been completed, or there is still a decline of about 10%, but the time may be close to the inflection point.<b>3）</b>The peak of the US Dollar Index still needs to wait until the European energy crisis warning is lifted. The RMB still has certain depreciation pressure, and the external environment still has a negative impact on RMB-denominated assets.</p><p><b>text</b></p><p><b>1.</b><b>The overwhelmed finance and the Fed that can't afford to raise interest rates</b></p><p>We pointed out in our comments on the FED's interest rate meeting in June, \"It's Time to Consider the Conditions for the FED to End the rate hike\" that the FED has \"no longer been able to raise interest rates\", but there is still a lack of a reason before the end of the rate hike. Compared with the situation observed in June, under the continuous rate hike and shrinking balance sheet, the current pressure on the Federal Reserve and finance has further increased.</p><p><b>1) The U.S. Treasury Department may spend nearly 3% of nominal GDP to repay Treasury Bond interest this year, the highest since 2001</b></p><p><b>How much debt interest does the U.S. Treasury spend each year?</b>This is related to two factors, the first is the government leverage ratio, and the second is the debt maturity structure or Treasury Bond duration. As shown in Figure 1, before the 2008 financial crisis, the proportion of U.S. debt interest to total debt (including state and local governments) was basically significantly lower than the 10-year U.S. bond yield, but after the financial crisis, it was almost the same. This change is related to the fact that the U.S. government began to increase long-term debt after the financial crisis. However, this also allows us to find an anchor in calculating U.S. debt interest expenses. The duration of U.S. Treasury Bond is approximately equal to the duration of 10-year U.S. debt.</p><p><b>So, how much debt interest will the U.S. Treasury have to pay this year?</b>As of September 2, the 10-year U.S. bond yield averaged 2.57% during the year, and the U.S. government leverage ratio in Q2 was 123%. If the above data is maintained until the end of the year, the Treasury Bond interest to be paid by the U.S. Treasury this year will be about 3.15% of nominal GDP. This value is already the highest since 2001 and even higher than 3.05% in 2018.</p><p><b>Is excessive fiscal pressure the reason for the Fed to end its rate hike?</b>We can't say that the high fiscal cost is the reason why the Federal Reserve ended its rate hike, but it is at least the reason to restrain fiscal easing. After the economic growth slows down, if it is difficult for the finance to exert its strength, it will inevitably aggravate the downward pressure on the economy, and then trigger the Fed's monetary policy shift. 2018 is a good example.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6751d0d27e96cd48c1887236ed8cbc30\" tg-width=\"940\" tg-height=\"617\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>2) Under the impact of rate hike and shrinking balance sheet, the Federal Reserve has continued to suffer huge losses</b></p><p>In the first quarter of 2022, the Federal Reserve suffered a huge loss of US $330.5 billion in open market operations, and the situation became even more severe in the second quarter, with the Federal Reserve losing another US $719.9 billion. That is to say, in the first half of the year, the Federal Reserve directly lost more than US $1,050.4 billion, and the peak size of the Fed's balance sheet (mid-May) was only US $8,995.49 billion. Why the huge loss? Rate hike's shrinking balance sheet triggered a surge in U.S. bond and MBS yields. In contrast, in 2018, the Federal Reserve ended its rate hike after suffering a full-year loss of $92.61 billion.</p><p><b>So, from the perspective of rate hike costs, where is the psychological barrier of the Fed?</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cb658898491d7f56123e8de769d16909\" tg-width=\"996\" tg-height=\"613\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3606db7981cf1a61cdb135034cc99bb7\" tg-width=\"916\" tg-height=\"633\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>two</b><b>, the 3.5% 10Y U.S. bond yield seems to be the psychological barrier for the Fed</b></p><p>We reported on August 20, \"Where does the balance of major asset classes tilt?\" Pointed out that the roller coaster trend of the 10-year U.S. bond yield since June is related to the changes in the rhythm of the Fed's shrinking balance sheet and its stance. At the FOMC in May, the Federal Reserve announced that it would reduce U.S. debt by US $30 billion/month from June to August, and began to accelerate to US $60 billion/month in September. But in fact, the Federal Reserve only reduced U.S. debt by $5.48 billion in June. Moreover, in July, the Federal Reserve's stance was generally dovish, and the magnitude of rate hike did not make the market's expectations worse. From the data point of view, it seems that it was only after the yields of U.S. bonds of various maturities (especially the 10-year) fell back that the Fed resumed its shrinking balance sheet. In our review report \"Powell who turned eagle again is the key\", we also pointed out that Powell's attitude turning eagle at the Jackson Hole global central bank meeting was also a helpless move before the mid-term elections.</p><p>Since the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield peaked at 3.495% in June, we have reason to suspect that the 3.5% 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is likely to be regarded as the psychological barrier for the Federal Reserve. Once so, the benchmark interest rate should not significantly and continuously exceed 3.5%. Of course, this does not mean that the 10-year U.S. bond yield or benchmark interest rate will not exceed this level, but that as long as economic data support or political demands allow it, the Fed is very likely to turn dove near this level.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/68bf069dfaa4a24dff2065dff6b59fcb\" tg-width=\"951\" tg-height=\"627\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Three,</b><b>Do realistic conditions allow the Fed to turn dove? September FOMC could be a watershed</b></p><p><b>First of all, U.S. inflation is at the top, and the center will move down significantly from the end of the year to the beginning of next year.</b>Under the resonance of the rising energy base, the declining growth of housing prices, and the slowdown in structural demand after the epidemic, such as second-hand cars, the peak inflation in the United States has passed, and the center will shift significantly downward from the end of the year to the beginning of next year. Of course, many friends will think that as long as the core PCE does not fall below 2% year-on-year, the Fed will continue its rate hike. After all, Powell also stated the same statement at the Jackson Hole meeting. But in fact, Powell's statement is dynamic. Since taking office in 2018, the Fed will re-establish a new policy tone every six months to one year. Moreover, the Fed already has two policy goals, in addition to inflation, there is also employment.</p><p><b>The employment target will eventually defeat the inflation target, and the unemployment rate is on its way to a \"sustained\" recovery.</b>Let's imagine that if each household has an income statement, the income side is determined by factors such as employment, and the cost side is affected by factors such as inflation. In the stage of employment and income stability, the cost factor is the key to profit margin. Once you lose your job and lose your cash flow, then the core contradiction between \"finding a job to increase revenue\" and \"consuming savings and reducing expenditure\" should be to work hard to find a job, and then employment becomes the core contradiction. Currently, the reason why the Federal Reserve emphasizes inflationary pressures is because there is no pressure on employment. However, the rebound in the unemployment rate in August and the deterioration of high-frequency indicators such as initial applications and renewal applications have indicated that the job market has begun to undergo some negative changes. Once the unemployment rate rises for three consecutive months, it will enter an upward trend, and then the Federal Reserve is bound to end its rate hike.</p><p><b>When will the Fed turn dove? We are guessing that September will be a watershed post-FOMC.</b>After the August employment data was released, rate hike's 75BP expectations in September cooled slightly. However, we also emphasized in our comments on the Jackson Hole global central bank meeting that Powell's sudden eagle change may be related to Biden's \"support rate defense war\" before the mid-term elections. At a time when inflation is difficult to fall sharply, expressing determination to suppress inflation can also win voter support. But as the Federal Reserve turned hawkish recently, U.S. stocks began to fall. We expect that as the mid-term elections approach, the Federal Reserve will also take into account asset prices and market risk appetite. Therefore, if 75BP rate hike boots are launched at the FOMC in September, the probability of turning doves will become greater.</p><p><b>Four,</b><b>How does the market interpret it? U.S. bonds and U.S. stocks are both close to the left</b></p><p><b>First of all, we adhere to our previous view that the Federal Reserve will end its rate hike in Q4, and bullish opportunities on the left side of U.S. debt of various maturities will gradually emerge.</b>It is expected that the Federal Reserve may raise the benchmark interest rate to around 3.5% in November, and then officially end the rate hike in December. In addition, if the Federal Reserve will gradually turn dove after the FOMC in September, the 10-year U.S. bond yield will most likely peak again around 3.5% around mid-September and then fall back. The 2-year U.S. bond yield is also expected to peak and fall in October. At present, from the perspective of time and space, the yields of U.S. bonds of all maturities are very close to the top, and bullish opportunities on the left are beginning to appear.</p><p><b>Second, the last decline of U.S. stocks has not yet been completed, or there is still a decline of about 10%, but the time may be close to the inflection point.</b>If the 10-year U.S. bond yield remains around the current level of 3.2% and the risk premium of the S&P 500 index (0.2% as of September 2) rises to 1% as the benchmark assumption, then the S&P 500 index still has a 19.0% decline. If the 10-year U.S. bond yield remains around the current level of 3.2% and the risk premium of the S&P 500 index rises to 0.5% as the benchmark assumption, then the S&P 500 index will still fall by 8.1%. However, considering that the 10-year U.S. bond yield may peak and fall in mid-to-late September, and the rapid decline in U.S. stocks, the final decline in U.S. stocks may be around 10%, and it may also be very close to the low point.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/86454c6b7a990865a40c0af63b093b93\" tg-width=\"925\" tg-height=\"621\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Third, the US Dollar Index's peak still needs to wait until the European energy crisis warning is lifted, and there is still some depreciation pressure on the RMB.</b>We pointed out in reports such as \"Where does the balance of major asset classes tilt?\" That the recent strength of the US dollar is related to concerns about the European energy crisis. Against the background of the G7 plan to limit the price of Russian energy, Russia announced an indefinite suspension of gas supply to Europe through Beixi-1. We also pointed out in our report \"The Possibility and Impact of the European Energy Crisis\" that there is a high probability that an energy crisis will break out in Europe in Q4. Once this is the case, the weakness of the euro may further push up the US Dollar Index. This week, with various risk factors intertwined, the US dollar tested 110. Of course, if Europe can survive this winter, the probability of another energy crisis in the future will decrease. In addition, we expect the Federal Reserve to end its rate hike at the end of the year, so we expect the peak of the dollar to be between the end of this year and the beginning of next year. This means that the RMB exchange rate will still have certain depreciation pressure in the next few months, and the external environment will still be a negative factor for RMB-denominated assets.</p><p><b>Risk warning:</b></p><p>Monetary policies of China and the United States exceeded expectations; The global epidemic exceeded expectations; The Chinese and American economies exceeded expectations.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"lsy1655347333395","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Is 3.5% the psychological barrier for the Fed?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIs 3.5% the psychological barrier for the Fed?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">招商宏观静思录</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-09-04 15:13</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><b>The Federal Reserve \"can't afford to raise interest rates\": the debt interest paid by the U.S. Treasury this year is about 3.15% of nominal GDP, up from 3.05% in 2018; In the first half of the year, the Federal Reserve suffered a huge loss of US $1,050.4 billion in open market operations, and only lost US $92.61 billion in 2018. The 10Y U.S. bond yield of 3.5% may be the psychological barrier for the Fed. In addition, the employment target will eventually defeat the inflation target, and the unemployment rate is on the way to a \"sustained\" recovery. There is a high probability that the rate hike will end by the end of the year. U.S. debt and U.S. stocks are close to the left. The peak of the U.S. dollar needs to wait until the European energy crisis warning is lifted. The external environment still has a certain negative impact on RMB-denominated assets.</b></p><p><b>The overwhelmed finance and the Federal Reserve that can't afford to raise interest rates. 1) Treasury Bond interest paid by the U.S. Treasury this year is approximately 3.15% of nominal GDP, up from 3.05% in 2018.</b>Is excessive fiscal pressure the reason for the Fed to end its rate hike? This is at least the reason to restrain fiscal easing. After the economic growth slows down, if it is difficult to exert fiscal strength, it will inevitably aggravate the downward pressure on the economy, and then trigger a shift in the Fed's monetary policy. 2018 is a good example.<b>2) Under the impact of rate hike and shrinking balance sheet, the Federal Reserve has continued to suffer huge losses.</b>In the first half of the year, the Federal Reserve directly lost more than US $1,050.4 billion, and the peak size of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet was only US $8,995.49 billion. In 2018, the Federal Reserve ended its rate hike after suffering a full-year loss of $92.61 billion.</p><p><b>So, from the perspective of rate hike costs, where is the psychological barrier of the Fed? The 3.5% 10Y U.S. bond yield seems to be the psychological barrier for the Fed.</b>The roller coaster trend of the 10-year U.S. bond yield since June is related to changes in the pace and stance of the Fed's shrinking balance sheet. At the FOMC in May, the Federal Reserve announced that it would reduce US debt by US $30 billion per month from June to August. But in fact, the Federal Reserve only reduced U.S. debt by $5.48 billion in June. Moreover, the Fed's stance in July was also dovish. From the data point of view, it seems that the Federal Reserve resumed its shrinking balance sheet after the yields of U.S. bonds of various maturities fell back. Since the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield peaked at 3.495% in June, the 3.5% 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is likely to be regarded as the psychological barrier for the Federal Reserve. Of course, this does not mean that the 10-year U.S. bond yield or benchmark interest rate will not exceed this level, but that as long as it sees economic data support or political demands allow it, the Fed is very likely to turn dove around this level.</p><p><b>Do realistic conditions allow the Fed to turn dove? Using employment targets to defeat inflation targets, the September FOMC may be a watershed. 1）</b>U.S. inflation is at its top, and the center will move down significantly from the end of the year to the beginning of next year.<b>2）</b>The employment target will eventually defeat the inflation target. Once the unemployment rate continues to rise, employment will become the core contradiction. The rebound in the unemployment rate in August and the deterioration of high-frequency indicators such as initial applications and renewal applications have indicated that the job market has begun to undergo some negative changes. The probability of ending the rate hike at the end of the year increases.<b>3）</b>When will the Fed turn dove? We are guessing that September will be a watershed post-FOMC. After the August employment data was released, rate hike's 75BP expectations in September cooled slightly. However, we also emphasized in our comments on the Jackson Hole global central bank meeting that Powell's sudden eagle change may be related to Biden's \"support rate defense war\" before the mid-term elections. At a time when inflation is difficult to fall sharply, expressing determination to suppress inflation can also win voter support. But recently, as the Federal Reserve turned hawkish, U.S. stocks began to fall. We expect that as the mid-term elections approach, the Federal Reserve will also take into account asset prices and market risk appetite. Therefore, if 75BP rate hike boots are launched at the FOMC in September, the probability of turning doves will become greater.</p><p><b>How does the market interpret it? Both U.S. bonds and U.S. stocks are close to the left. 1）</b>Opportunities to be bullish on the left side of U.S. bonds of various maturities are gradually emerging.<b>2）</b>The last decline of U.S. stocks has not yet been completed, or there is still a decline of about 10%, but the time may be close to the inflection point.<b>3）</b>The peak of the US Dollar Index still needs to wait until the European energy crisis warning is lifted. The RMB still has certain depreciation pressure, and the external environment still has a negative impact on RMB-denominated assets.</p><p><b>text</b></p><p><b>1.</b><b>The overwhelmed finance and the Fed that can't afford to raise interest rates</b></p><p>We pointed out in our comments on the FED's interest rate meeting in June, \"It's Time to Consider the Conditions for the FED to End the rate hike\" that the FED has \"no longer been able to raise interest rates\", but there is still a lack of a reason before the end of the rate hike. Compared with the situation observed in June, under the continuous rate hike and shrinking balance sheet, the current pressure on the Federal Reserve and finance has further increased.</p><p><b>1) The U.S. Treasury Department may spend nearly 3% of nominal GDP to repay Treasury Bond interest this year, the highest since 2001</b></p><p><b>How much debt interest does the U.S. Treasury spend each year?</b>This is related to two factors, the first is the government leverage ratio, and the second is the debt maturity structure or Treasury Bond duration. As shown in Figure 1, before the 2008 financial crisis, the proportion of U.S. debt interest to total debt (including state and local governments) was basically significantly lower than the 10-year U.S. bond yield, but after the financial crisis, it was almost the same. This change is related to the fact that the U.S. government began to increase long-term debt after the financial crisis. However, this also allows us to find an anchor in calculating U.S. debt interest expenses. The duration of U.S. Treasury Bond is approximately equal to the duration of 10-year U.S. debt.</p><p><b>So, how much debt interest will the U.S. Treasury have to pay this year?</b>As of September 2, the 10-year U.S. bond yield averaged 2.57% during the year, and the U.S. government leverage ratio in Q2 was 123%. If the above data is maintained until the end of the year, the Treasury Bond interest to be paid by the U.S. Treasury this year will be about 3.15% of nominal GDP. This value is already the highest since 2001 and even higher than 3.05% in 2018.</p><p><b>Is excessive fiscal pressure the reason for the Fed to end its rate hike?</b>We can't say that the high fiscal cost is the reason why the Federal Reserve ended its rate hike, but it is at least the reason to restrain fiscal easing. After the economic growth slows down, if it is difficult for the finance to exert its strength, it will inevitably aggravate the downward pressure on the economy, and then trigger the Fed's monetary policy shift. 2018 is a good example.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6751d0d27e96cd48c1887236ed8cbc30\" tg-width=\"940\" tg-height=\"617\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>2) Under the impact of rate hike and shrinking balance sheet, the Federal Reserve has continued to suffer huge losses</b></p><p>In the first quarter of 2022, the Federal Reserve suffered a huge loss of US $330.5 billion in open market operations, and the situation became even more severe in the second quarter, with the Federal Reserve losing another US $719.9 billion. That is to say, in the first half of the year, the Federal Reserve directly lost more than US $1,050.4 billion, and the peak size of the Fed's balance sheet (mid-May) was only US $8,995.49 billion. Why the huge loss? Rate hike's shrinking balance sheet triggered a surge in U.S. bond and MBS yields. In contrast, in 2018, the Federal Reserve ended its rate hike after suffering a full-year loss of $92.61 billion.</p><p><b>So, from the perspective of rate hike costs, where is the psychological barrier of the Fed?</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cb658898491d7f56123e8de769d16909\" tg-width=\"996\" tg-height=\"613\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3606db7981cf1a61cdb135034cc99bb7\" tg-width=\"916\" tg-height=\"633\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>two</b><b>, the 3.5% 10Y U.S. bond yield seems to be the psychological barrier for the Fed</b></p><p>We reported on August 20, \"Where does the balance of major asset classes tilt?\" Pointed out that the roller coaster trend of the 10-year U.S. bond yield since June is related to the changes in the rhythm of the Fed's shrinking balance sheet and its stance. At the FOMC in May, the Federal Reserve announced that it would reduce U.S. debt by US $30 billion/month from June to August, and began to accelerate to US $60 billion/month in September. But in fact, the Federal Reserve only reduced U.S. debt by $5.48 billion in June. Moreover, in July, the Federal Reserve's stance was generally dovish, and the magnitude of rate hike did not make the market's expectations worse. From the data point of view, it seems that it was only after the yields of U.S. bonds of various maturities (especially the 10-year) fell back that the Fed resumed its shrinking balance sheet. In our review report \"Powell who turned eagle again is the key\", we also pointed out that Powell's attitude turning eagle at the Jackson Hole global central bank meeting was also a helpless move before the mid-term elections.</p><p>Since the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield peaked at 3.495% in June, we have reason to suspect that the 3.5% 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is likely to be regarded as the psychological barrier for the Federal Reserve. Once so, the benchmark interest rate should not significantly and continuously exceed 3.5%. Of course, this does not mean that the 10-year U.S. bond yield or benchmark interest rate will not exceed this level, but that as long as economic data support or political demands allow it, the Fed is very likely to turn dove near this level.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/68bf069dfaa4a24dff2065dff6b59fcb\" tg-width=\"951\" tg-height=\"627\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Three,</b><b>Do realistic conditions allow the Fed to turn dove? September FOMC could be a watershed</b></p><p><b>First of all, U.S. inflation is at the top, and the center will move down significantly from the end of the year to the beginning of next year.</b>Under the resonance of the rising energy base, the declining growth of housing prices, and the slowdown in structural demand after the epidemic, such as second-hand cars, the peak inflation in the United States has passed, and the center will shift significantly downward from the end of the year to the beginning of next year. Of course, many friends will think that as long as the core PCE does not fall below 2% year-on-year, the Fed will continue its rate hike. After all, Powell also stated the same statement at the Jackson Hole meeting. But in fact, Powell's statement is dynamic. Since taking office in 2018, the Fed will re-establish a new policy tone every six months to one year. Moreover, the Fed already has two policy goals, in addition to inflation, there is also employment.</p><p><b>The employment target will eventually defeat the inflation target, and the unemployment rate is on its way to a \"sustained\" recovery.</b>Let's imagine that if each household has an income statement, the income side is determined by factors such as employment, and the cost side is affected by factors such as inflation. In the stage of employment and income stability, the cost factor is the key to profit margin. Once you lose your job and lose your cash flow, then the core contradiction between \"finding a job to increase revenue\" and \"consuming savings and reducing expenditure\" should be to work hard to find a job, and then employment becomes the core contradiction. Currently, the reason why the Federal Reserve emphasizes inflationary pressures is because there is no pressure on employment. However, the rebound in the unemployment rate in August and the deterioration of high-frequency indicators such as initial applications and renewal applications have indicated that the job market has begun to undergo some negative changes. Once the unemployment rate rises for three consecutive months, it will enter an upward trend, and then the Federal Reserve is bound to end its rate hike.</p><p><b>When will the Fed turn dove? We are guessing that September will be a watershed post-FOMC.</b>After the August employment data was released, rate hike's 75BP expectations in September cooled slightly. However, we also emphasized in our comments on the Jackson Hole global central bank meeting that Powell's sudden eagle change may be related to Biden's \"support rate defense war\" before the mid-term elections. At a time when inflation is difficult to fall sharply, expressing determination to suppress inflation can also win voter support. But as the Federal Reserve turned hawkish recently, U.S. stocks began to fall. We expect that as the mid-term elections approach, the Federal Reserve will also take into account asset prices and market risk appetite. Therefore, if 75BP rate hike boots are launched at the FOMC in September, the probability of turning doves will become greater.</p><p><b>Four,</b><b>How does the market interpret it? U.S. bonds and U.S. stocks are both close to the left</b></p><p><b>First of all, we adhere to our previous view that the Federal Reserve will end its rate hike in Q4, and bullish opportunities on the left side of U.S. debt of various maturities will gradually emerge.</b>It is expected that the Federal Reserve may raise the benchmark interest rate to around 3.5% in November, and then officially end the rate hike in December. In addition, if the Federal Reserve will gradually turn dove after the FOMC in September, the 10-year U.S. bond yield will most likely peak again around 3.5% around mid-September and then fall back. The 2-year U.S. bond yield is also expected to peak and fall in October. At present, from the perspective of time and space, the yields of U.S. bonds of all maturities are very close to the top, and bullish opportunities on the left are beginning to appear.</p><p><b>Second, the last decline of U.S. stocks has not yet been completed, or there is still a decline of about 10%, but the time may be close to the inflection point.</b>If the 10-year U.S. bond yield remains around the current level of 3.2% and the risk premium of the S&P 500 index (0.2% as of September 2) rises to 1% as the benchmark assumption, then the S&P 500 index still has a 19.0% decline. If the 10-year U.S. bond yield remains around the current level of 3.2% and the risk premium of the S&P 500 index rises to 0.5% as the benchmark assumption, then the S&P 500 index will still fall by 8.1%. However, considering that the 10-year U.S. bond yield may peak and fall in mid-to-late September, and the rapid decline in U.S. stocks, the final decline in U.S. stocks may be around 10%, and it may also be very close to the low point.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/86454c6b7a990865a40c0af63b093b93\" tg-width=\"925\" tg-height=\"621\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Third, the US Dollar Index's peak still needs to wait until the European energy crisis warning is lifted, and there is still some depreciation pressure on the RMB.</b>We pointed out in reports such as \"Where does the balance of major asset classes tilt?\" That the recent strength of the US dollar is related to concerns about the European energy crisis. Against the background of the G7 plan to limit the price of Russian energy, Russia announced an indefinite suspension of gas supply to Europe through Beixi-1. We also pointed out in our report \"The Possibility and Impact of the European Energy Crisis\" that there is a high probability that an energy crisis will break out in Europe in Q4. Once this is the case, the weakness of the euro may further push up the US Dollar Index. This week, with various risk factors intertwined, the US dollar tested 110. Of course, if Europe can survive this winter, the probability of another energy crisis in the future will decrease. In addition, we expect the Federal Reserve to end its rate hike at the end of the year, so we expect the peak of the dollar to be between the end of this year and the beginning of next year. This means that the RMB exchange rate will still have certain depreciation pressure in the next few months, and the external environment will still be a negative factor for RMB-denominated assets.</p><p><b>Risk warning:</b></p><p>Monetary policies of China and the United States exceeded expectations; The global epidemic exceeded expectations; The Chinese and American economies exceeded expectations.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/73QzmP-YHcoX8-zys9OUVA\">招商宏观静思录</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/42d623bf2f962cffafc93d5db7d45f9c","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","BK4581":"高盛持仓","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares",".DJI":"道琼斯","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","SPY":"标普500ETF","BK4504":"桥水持仓",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/73QzmP-YHcoX8-zys9OUVA","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1191824345","content_text":"美联储已经“加不起息”了：今年美国财政部支付的债务利息约为名义GDP的3.15%，高于2018年的3.05%；上半年美联储在公开市场操作中巨亏10504亿美元，2018年全年仅亏损926.1亿美元。3.5%的10Y美债收益率或为美联储心理关口。此外，就业目标终究打败通胀目标，失业率“持续”回升已在路上，年底结束加息为大概率。美债、美股接近左侧，美元见顶需待欧洲能源危机警报解除，外部环境对人民币计价资产仍有一定负面影响。不堪重负的财政与“加不起息”的联储。1）今年美国财政部要支付的国债利息大约为名义GDP的3.15%，高于2018年的3.05%。财政压力过大就是美联储结束加息的理由吗？这起码是约束财政宽松的理由，而在经济增长放缓后，假若财政难以发力，势必会加剧经济下行压力，并进而引发美联储货币政策转向，2018年就是个很好的例子。2）加息、缩表冲击下，美联储连续巨亏。上半年美联储就直接亏掉了超过10504亿美元，而美联储资产负债表规模峰值也仅为89954.9亿美元。2018年美联储全年亏损926.1亿美元后就曾结束加息。那么，从加息成本的角度看，美联储的心理关口在哪儿？3.5%的10Y美债收益率看似是美联储的心理关口。6月以来10年期美债收益率的过山车走势与美联储缩表节奏及表态变化有关。5月FOMC上，美联储宣布6-8月缩减300亿美元美债/月。但实际上，6月美联储仅缩减了54.8亿美元的美债。并且，7月美联储表态也偏鸽。从数据上看，似乎是在各个期限美债收益率有所回落后，美联储才重新提速缩表。由于6月10年期美债收益率高点在3.495%，因此，3.5%的10年期美债收益率极有可能算是美联储的心理关口。当然，这并不代表10年期美债收益率或者基准利率不会超过这一水平，而是说只要看到经济数据支持或者政治诉求允许，美联储就极有可能在这一水平附近转鸽。现实条件允许美联储转鸽吗？用就业目标打败通胀目标，9月FOMC可能是个分水岭。1）美国通胀处于顶部，年底到明年初中枢将明显下移。2）就业目标终将打败通胀目标，一旦失业率持续回升，就业就将成为核心矛盾。8月失业率回升以及初请、续请等高频指标转差，已经说明就业市场开始有些负面变化。年底结束加息概率上升。3）美联储何时转鸽？我们猜测9月FOMC后将是分水岭。8月就业数据公布后，9月加息75BP预期略有降温，但我们在Jackson Hole全球央行会议点评中亦曾强调鲍威尔突然变鹰或与中期选举前的拜登“支持率保卫战”有关，在通胀难以大幅回落之际，表达打压通胀的决心也能赢得选民支持。但近期随着美联储转鹰，美股开始下挫。我们预计临近中期选举之际，美联储亦将兼顾资产价格与市场风险偏好，所以假若9月FOMC上落地了75BP加息靴子，随后转鸽概率就将变大。市场如何解读？美债与美股均已接近左侧。1）各期限美债左侧看多机会逐渐显现。2）美股的最后一跌尚未完成，或仍有10%左右的跌幅，但时间上或接近拐点。3）美元指数见顶还需待欧洲能源危机警报解除，人民币仍存一定贬值压力，外部环境对人民币计价资产仍有负面影响。正文一、不堪重负的财政与“加不起息”的联储我们在6月美联储议息会议点评《是时候考虑FED结束加息的条件了》中就曾指出，美联储已经“加不起息”了，但距离加息结束仍欠缺一个理由。与6月观察到的情况相比，在持续加息、缩表之下，目前美联储与财政压力进一步加重。1）今年美国财政部或将拿出名义GDP的近3%偿还国债利息，为2001年以来之最美国财政部每年要支出多少债务利息？这与两个因素有关，第一是政府杠杆率，第二是债务期限结构或者说是国债久期。如图1所示，2008年金融危机前美国债务利息占总债务（包括州及地方政府）的比重基本上明显低于10年期美债收益率，但金融危机后几乎相当。这一变化与金融危机后美国政府开始增加长期债务有关。不过，这也让我们在匡算美国债务利息支出中找到了锚，美国国债久期约等于10年期美债久期。那么，今年美国财政部要支付多少债务利息？截至9月2日，10年期美债收益率年内均值为2.57%，Q2美国政府杠杆率为123%。假若上述数据维持至年底，则今年美国财政部要支付的国债利息大约为名义GDP的3.15%。该数值已经是2001年以来最高，比2018年的3.05%还要更高。财政压力过大就是美联储结束加息的理由吗？我们并不能说，财政成本高企就是美联储结束加息的理由，但这起码是约束财政宽松的理由，而在经济增长放缓后，假若财政难以发力，势必会加剧经济下行压力，并进而引发美联储货币政策转向，2018年就是个很好的例子。2）加息、缩表冲击下，美联储连续巨亏2022年一季度美联储在公开市场操作中巨亏了3305亿美元，且二季度形势更加严峻，美联储又亏掉了7199亿美元。也即，上半年美联储就直接亏掉了超过10504亿美元，而美联储资产负债表规模峰值（5月中旬）也仅为89954.9亿美元。何以巨亏？加息缩表引发美债与MBS收益率飙升。相比之下，而2018年美联储全年亏损926.1亿美元之后就曾结束加息。那么，从加息成本的角度看，美联储的心理关口在哪儿？二、3.5%的10Y美债收益率看似是美联储的心理关口我们在8月20日报告《大类资产的天平向哪儿倾斜？》中指出，6月以来10年期美债收益率的过山车走势与美联储缩表节奏及其表态变化有关。5月FOMC上，美联储曾宣布6-8月缩减300亿美元美债/月，9月开始提速至600亿美元美债/月。但实际上，6月美联储仅缩减了54.8亿美元的美债。并且，7月美联储表态整体偏鸽，加息幅度上也没有令市场出现预期差。从数据上看，似乎是在各个期限（特别是10年期）美债收益率有所回落之后，美联储才重新提速缩表的。我们在点评报告《再度转鹰的鲍威尔才是关键》中亦指出，Jackson Hole全球央行会议上鲍威尔态度转鹰也是中期选举前的无奈之举。由于6月10年期美债收益率高点在3.495%，因此，我们有理由怀疑3.5%的10年期美债收益率极有可能算是美联储的心理关口。一旦如此，基准利率也不应明显、持续超过3.5%。当然，这并不代表10年期美债收益率或者基准利率不会超过这一水平，而是说只要看到经济数据支持或者政治诉求允许，美联储就极有可能在这一水平附近转鸽。三、现实条件允许美联储转鸽吗？9月FOMC可能是个分水岭首先，美国通胀处于顶部，年底到明年初中枢将明显下移。能源基数抬高、房价增速下降以及二手车等疫后结构性需求放缓共振之下，美国通胀峰值已过，年底到明年初将迎来中枢显著下移。当然，很多朋友会认为，只要核心PCE同比未降至2%下方，美联储就要持续加息，毕竟Jackson Hole会议上鲍威尔也是这样表态的。但事实上，鲍威尔的表态是动态的，2018年上任以来，每隔半年到一年美联储就会重新确立一个新的政策基调。并且，美联储本就有两个政策目标，除了通胀，还有就业。就业目标终将打败通胀目标，失业率“持续”回升已在路上。我们想象一下，如果每个家庭有一张利润表，收入端由就业等因素决定，成本端受通胀等因素影响。在就业与收入稳定的阶段，成本因素就是利润率的关键。一旦失业进而丧失现金流，那么“找工作开源”与“消耗储蓄节流”之间，更应该的是努力找工作，进而就业就成为了核心矛盾。当前，美联储之所以强调通胀压力，是因为就业尚无压力。但8月失业率回升以及初请、续请等高频指标转差，已经说明就业市场开始有些负面变化。一旦失业率连续3个月回升就将进入回升趋势，届时美联储势必结束加息。美联储何时转鸽？我们猜测9月FOMC后将是分水岭。8月就业数据公布后，9月加息75BP预期略有降温，但我们在Jackson Hole全球央行会议点评中亦曾强调鲍威尔突然变鹰或与中期选举前的拜登“支持率保卫战”有关，在通胀难以大幅回落之际，表达打压通胀的决心也能赢得选民支持。但近期随着美联储转鹰，美股开始下挫。我们预计临近中期选举之际，美联储亦将兼顾资产价格与市场风险偏好，所以假若9月FOMC上落地了75BP加息靴子，随后转鸽概率就将变大。四、市场如何解读？美债与美股均已接近左侧首先，我们坚持此前的观点，Q4美联储将结束加息，各期限美债左侧看多机会逐渐显现。预计11月美联储或将基准利率提升至3.5%附近，随后12月正式结束加息。此外，假若9月FOMC后美联储将逐步转鸽，那么10年期美债收益率大概率将在9月中旬附近在3.5%左右再度见顶随后回落。而2年期美债收益率也有望在10月见顶回落。目前，从时间与空间来看，各期限美债收益率都已经非常接近顶部，左侧看多机会开始显现。第二，美股的最后一跌尚未完成，或仍有10%左右的跌幅，但时间上或接近拐点。若以10年期美债收益率维持在现有水平3.2%附近、标普500指数风险溢价（截至9月2日为0.2%）回升至1%为基准假设，那么标普500指数还有19.0%的跌幅。若以10年期美债收益率维持在现有水平3.2%附近、标普500指数风险溢价回升至0.5%为基准假设，那么标普500指数还有8.1%的跌幅。但考虑到9月中下旬10年期美债收益率可能会见顶回落，加上美股下跌速度较急，因此，美股的最终跌幅或在10%附近，且亦有可能已经非常接近低点。第三，美元指数见顶还需待欧洲能源危机警报解除，人民币仍存一定贬值压力。我们在《大类资产的天平向哪儿倾斜》等报告中指出，美元近期走强与欧洲能源危机担忧有关。在G7计划为俄罗斯能源限价的背景下，俄罗斯宣布无限期暂停通过北溪-1号向欧洲供气。我们在报告《欧洲能源危机的可能及影响》中也指出，Q4欧洲爆发能源危机或为大概率。一旦如此，欧元的疲软或将进一步推升美元指数，本周各种风险因素交织之下，美元就曾试探110。当然，如果欧洲能熬过这个冬天，未来再度出现能源危机的概率就会下降。再加上我们预计美联储将于年底结束加息，因此预计美元的顶或在今年底到明年初。这就意味着，未来数月人民币汇率仍有一定贬值压力，外部环境对于人民币计价资产仍是负面因素。风险提示：中美货币政策超预期；全球疫情超预期；中美经济超预期。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.9,"OEF":0.9,"SQQQ":0.9,"QLD":0.9,"IVV":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"SPY":0.9,"SSO":0.9,"QQQ":0.9,"TQQQ":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"UPRO":0.9,"NQmain":0.9,"PSQ":0.9,"SH":0.9,"DOG":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":685,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":687272750,"gmtCreate":1661137063175,"gmtModify":1676536759237,"author":{"id":"3470796964701736","authorId":"3470796964701736","name":"1小龙女1","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3470796964701736","idStr":"3470796964701736"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"😀","listText":"😀","text":"😀","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/687272750","repostId":"1176039020","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1176039020","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1661131264,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1176039020?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-08-22 09:21","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Hong Kong stocks open | Hang Seng Index open low 1.01%, Hang Seng Technology Index fell 1.41%","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1176039020","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"8月22日讯，美联储激进加息担忧再起，热门中概股连跌四周。港股今日低开，恒指跌1.01%，国指跌1.19%，恒生科技指数跌1.4%。盘面上，大型科技股普遍下跌，美团、小米、快手均跌2%，阿里巴巴、京东","content":"<p><html><head></head><body><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5ac6f3c556527ed76e58397d8a675b05\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>On August 22nd, concerns about the Federal Reserve's aggressive rate hike revived, and popular Chinese concept stocks fell for four consecutive weeks. Hong Kong stocks open low today, the Hang Seng Index fell 1.01%, the State Index fell 1.19%, and the Hang Seng Technology Index fell 1.4%.</p><p>On the disk, large technology stocks generally fell, with Meituan, Xiaomi, and Kuaishou all falling 2%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09988\">Alibaba</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09618\">JD.com</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09888\">Baidu</a>Fell more than 1%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09999\">NetEase</a>Bucked the trend and rose 1.5%; Gas stocks and photovoltaic glass stocks were among the top losers, while home appliance stocks, Internet medical stocks, insurance stocks, automobile stocks, and catering stocks generally fell. On the other hand, biotechnology stocks continued to be active, and some shipping stocks, mainland real estate stocks and property management stocks rose, planning to acquire high-quality assets.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00493\">Gome Retail</a>Opened 8.6% higher.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01070\">TCL Electronics</a>After the results, it fell by more than 11%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company in the first half of the year fell by 76.1% year-on-year.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00493\">Gome Retail</a>After the resumption of trading, it rose 8.6%. It had previously announced that it planned to restructure its business segment, divest loss-making businesses, and inject two properties of major shareholders and part of the equity of Anxun Logistics.</p><p>Recommended reading:<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2261359331\" target=\"_blank\">Viewpoint | What does the semi-annual adjustment of the Hang Seng Index and Hong Kong Stock Connect bring?</a></p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Hong Kong stocks open | Hang Seng Index open low 1.01%, Hang Seng Technology Index fell 1.41%</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHong Kong stocks open | Hang Seng Index open low 1.01%, Hang Seng Technology Index fell 1.41%\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-08-22 09:21</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5ac6f3c556527ed76e58397d8a675b05\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>On August 22nd, concerns about the Federal Reserve's aggressive rate hike revived, and popular Chinese concept stocks fell for four consecutive weeks. Hong Kong stocks open low today, the Hang Seng Index fell 1.01%, the State Index fell 1.19%, and the Hang Seng Technology Index fell 1.4%.</p><p>On the disk, large technology stocks generally fell, with Meituan, Xiaomi, and Kuaishou all falling 2%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09988\">Alibaba</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09618\">JD.com</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09888\">Baidu</a>Fell more than 1%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09999\">NetEase</a>Bucked the trend and rose 1.5%; Gas stocks and photovoltaic glass stocks were among the top losers, while home appliance stocks, Internet medical stocks, insurance stocks, automobile stocks, and catering stocks generally fell. On the other hand, biotechnology stocks continued to be active, and some shipping stocks, mainland real estate stocks and property management stocks rose, planning to acquire high-quality assets.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00493\">Gome Retail</a>Opened 8.6% higher.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01070\">TCL Electronics</a>After the results, it fell by more than 11%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company in the first half of the year fell by 76.1% year-on-year.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00493\">Gome Retail</a>After the resumption of trading, it rose 8.6%. It had previously announced that it planned to restructure its business segment, divest loss-making businesses, and inject two properties of major shareholders and part of the equity of Anxun Logistics.</p><p>Recommended reading:<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2261359331\" target=\"_blank\">Viewpoint | What does the semi-annual adjustment of the Hang Seng Index and Hong Kong Stock Connect bring?</a></p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ff6e3231d788a5a6d28cf7965385cc7f","relate_stocks":{"513600":"恒生指数ETF","HSI":"恒生指数","02833":"恒指ETF","HSTECH":"恒生科技指数"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1176039020","content_text":"8月22日讯，美联储激进加息担忧再起，热门中概股连跌四周。港股今日低开，恒指跌1.01%，国指跌1.19%，恒生科技指数跌1.4%。盘面上，大型科技股普遍下跌，美团、小米、快手均跌2%，阿里巴巴、京东、百度跌超1%，网易逆势涨1.5%；燃气股、光伏玻璃股跌幅居前，家电股、互联网医疗股、保险股、汽车股、餐饮股普跌。另一方面，生物科技股继续活跃，海运股、内房股与物管股部分上涨，拟收购优质资产，国美零售高开8.6%。TCL电子绩后跌超11%，上半年归母净利同比降76.1%。国美零售复牌后涨8.6%，此前宣布拟重组业务板块，剥离亏损业务，注入大股东两处物业及安迅物流部分股权。推荐阅读：观点 | 恒指及港股通半年度调整带来什么？","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"513600":0.9,"HSI":0.9,"02833":0.9,"MHImain":0.9,"HSTECH":0.9,"HHImain":0.9,"HSImain":0.9,"MCHmain":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":405,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}
