U.S. November employment data released on Tuesday showed the unemployment rate unexpectedly rising to 4.6%. While still relatively low by historical standards, it marks the highest level since early 2021. Data from the University of Michigan indicate that as of November, most consumers expect unemployment to continue rising over the next year.According to Morgan Stanley, if this week’s U.S. labor data show moderate softness, it could increase the probability of further Federal Reserve rate cuts, which would be supportive for equities. “We are firmly back in the ‘good news is bad news, bad news is good news’ regime,” Wilson wrote in a note. He explained that while a strong labor market is positive for the economy, it reduces the likelihood of rate cuts in 2026.Against the backdrop of softer
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1Y Anniversary of Rate Hike - When Will Fed Stop and Pivot?
It was a year ago this month that the Fed launched its rate hike to combat inflation.At first, policymakers only take 25 basis points to tackle price surges. Subsequent months saw much larger hikes, enough to raise the Fed’s benchmark borrowing rate by 4.5 percentage points to its highest level since 2007.At this 1 year anniversary, we can review these questions:what's the end of the rate hike cycle?when will Fed stop rate hikes and turn to rate cuts?what's the target rate for March?1. What’s the end of this rate hike cycle? - 5.5% is a consensusThe benchmark rate currently
1Y Anniversary of Rate Hike - When Will Fed Stop and Pivot?
Santa Rally in Doubt? Will BOJ Rate Hike Deepen Market Downturn?
Santa Rally in Doubt? Will BOJ Rate Hike Deepen Market Downturn?
Best Opening For Earnings Seasons? Major Banks All Beat Estimates!
A research report led by strategist Savita Subramanian on Monday stated that among the 30 companies in the S&P 500 index that have already reported their earnings, 90% of them have exceeded earnings per share expectations, and 73% have surpassed revenue expectations.This is the biggest positive surprise in the first week of the reporting period since at least 2012, largely due to impressive earnings from $JPMorgan Chase(JPM)$, $Citigroup(C)$ , and $Wells Fargo(WFC)$.Driven by the impressive financial data, JPMorgan Chase's stock price surged by 7.55% on the same day, marking the largest single-day gain since November 2020.1. Major Banks Released Stellar Earnings A
Best Opening For Earnings Seasons? Major Banks All Beat Estimates!
From a Historical View: Bearish or Bullish on Israel Conflicts?
Some argue that wars can create economic instability, leading to bearish trends in the stock market, while others contend that certain sectors, like defense and technology, might experience bullish growth during times of conflict.The war bulls list the wars and index performance. It seems that 4 out of 5 presented upward momentum after the war broke out.The bears compare the price trend of $S&P 500(.SPX)$ and oil prices $WTI Crude Oil - main 2311(CLmain)$ Let’s look at the recent war in 2022:The first chart shows that $S&P 500(.SPX)$ rebounded soon after Russia-Ukraine conflicts broke out on 24th Feb, 2022.However, for a longer period, the index kept
From a Historical View: Bearish or Bullish on Israel Conflicts?
Will Tesla hit $300? Choose AI or old favorites like Apple?
$Apple(AAPL)$ and $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ led market surge yesterday and Apple's market cap returned to $3 trln.Will Tesla fill the gap in $280 and head to $300 in the year end?Apart from Apple’s strong momentum, investors believe Tesla has shown strength and may potentially fill the gap at 280.If Tesla rises to 280, it could further climb to the 52-week- high of $300.Whether big tech will continue to lead the market surge next year?The stock market surge is concentrated in top stocks. Excluding Magnificent 7, $S&P 500(.SPX)$ would only see a 9% gain this year instead of 19%.According to the 2024 outlook,Most institutions are optimistic about the profit gro
Will Tesla hit $300? Choose AI or old favorites like Apple?
Who will benefit from FRC's possible bankruptcy?
$First Republic Bank(FRC)$ plummeted to an all-time low in Tuesday’s trading session. The price per share hit an all-time low of $8.10 as the markets closed.It was driven by the latest earnings. Although the bank’s EPS in the first quarter topped analysts’ estimates, its deposit flight was worse than what analysts had estimated, plunging 41% to $104.5 billion, missing the estimates of $145 billion.Everyone is preparing for an imminent bankruptcy?The White House is expressing concerns about whether it has the capacity to find a solution for First Republic Bank's insolvency.The rescue plan for First Republic Bank did not succeed. The bank suspended its dividend and its shares continued to slump, raising speculation about the bank's future as a s
Who will benefit from FRC's possible bankruptcy?
[9th Anniv. Quiz] Analysts Suggest Cautious As SPX. Entered Technical Bull Market
On Thursday, three major US stock indexes collectively closed higher. At the close, $S&P 500(.SPX)$ settled at 4293.93, rebounding 20% from its low point in October 2022, entering a technical bull market. It also signalled the ending of the longest $S&P 500(.SPX)$ bear market since the 1940s. Tech sector rally end the second longest bear marketThe S&P 500 index has been in bear market territory for 244 trading days, marking the longest duration since May 15, 1948. That year, the bear market lasted for 484 trading days. Historically, bear markets have an average duration of 142 trading days.S&P 500 index has risen 11.5% year-to-date, but a large portion of the gains are attributed to surges
[9th Anniv. Quiz] Analysts Suggest Cautious As SPX. Entered Technical Bull Market
2023 H1 Recap | Goldman & JPM Are Wrong in 2023 Outlooks?
As we approach the end of the June, some investors begin to forecast the stock market in the next half. Let’s look back at how we did the analysis at the beginning of the 2023.Most retail investors gained information by reading the report and outlooks released by institutions. Let’s find out if Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan are right or wrong in forecasting economy and stock market in 2023. The source are from Goldman and JPMorgan’s official website.Both of them are wrong at predicting the stock market trends in the first half as $S&P 500(.SPX)$ are trading at 4300.They are also wrong in terms of interest rates and inflation. The benchmark rate is now at the range of 5%-5.25% and the market is expecting at least another 25bps.May CPI is 4%, highe
2023 H1 Recap | Goldman & JPM Are Wrong in 2023 Outlooks?
[9th Anniv. Quiz] If I hold Nvidia and Microsoft, how to hedge possible pullback?
Has the long-awaited market correction finally begun? Yesterday, technology stocks generally experienced a decline, with prominent AI companies such as $NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$ and $Microsoft(MSFT)$ dropping by 3%. $NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$ closed at $374.75, $Microsoft(MSFT)$ closed at $323.38.If I hold tech stocks, how can I hedge against this? This article will introduce three options strategies to hedge against the potential market correction. 1. Buy putYou can purchase put options on Nvidia and Microsoft to provide downside protection. In the event of a pullback, the value of the put options would increase, offsetting some of
[9th Anniv. Quiz] If I hold Nvidia and Microsoft, how to hedge possible pullback?
Big Tech Retreats! Small Cap Stocks Show Momentum?
Big tech collectively closed down yesterday due to the “special rebalancing“ while small cap $iShares Russell 2000 ETF(IWM)$ shows strength.1. Special rebalancing in $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ to reduce big tech’s weight to 38.5%The $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ is preparing to adjust the weightings of its 100 components, particularly focusing on the "magnificent seven" stocks: $Microsoft(MSFT)$ , $Apple(AAPL)$ , $NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$ , $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ , $Alphabet(GOOG)$,
Big Tech Retreats! Small Cap Stocks Show Momentum?
9th Anniversary Quiz: Investing & Tiger (7)
Hello, everyone! It’s time for quiz!!!!!!!Our seventh question is: Tiger Brokers has expanded into which international markets?Remember to write your answer in the comment section and repost!The eighth question will be released on Monday. Don’t forget to follow me and join the quiz!
9th Anniversary Quiz: Investing & Tiger (7)
Bet on Growth Stocks? Learn about Straddle Strategy!
Earnings of growth stocks diverge greatly in this earnings season.$Snap Inc(SNAP)$ shares dropped as much as 20%; $Cloudflare, Inc.(NET)$ plunged as much as 25% in after-hours trading Thursday; $Lyft, Inc.(LYFT)$ dropped 17%; $Upstart Holdings, Inc.(UPST)$ surged 50% yesterday.The roller-coaster ride of growth stocks happens every day in this earnings season.How to profit from their divergence and wild ride?Straddle helps you profit from high volitilityStraddle refers to buying a combination of “call and put” with the same strike price and expiration date, with the strike price usually taken close to the current price (AT
Bet on Growth Stocks? Learn about Straddle Strategy!
Will June Present an Average Month? NFP & Rate Decision Ahead!
In May, the stock market was influenced by earnings and the AI concept, resulting in both gains and losses. Although the saying advises people to sell in May, investors holding technology stocks must have achieved decent returns as $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ rose by over 20%. $NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$ and the semiconductor sector rose nearly 30%. Tech sector posted rally as most of their earnings beat estimates.Will June deliver a surprise?Looking at historical data, June tends to have a relatively subdued performance. However, the month presents an opportunity for new investors to make strategic investments and potentially reap significant profits in the future. Non-farm payroll tomorrow Hit th
Will June Present an Average Month? NFP & Rate Decision Ahead!
If Investing in AI Sector, Choose AI King MSFT or GOOG with Potential?
On May 11 at the Google I/O conference, Google CEO Sundar Pichai unveiled PaLM 2, an artificial intelligence language model.Google's latest AI achievements on I/O conference1) PaLM 2, an artificial intelligence language model, can generate a variety of text responses for users. PaLM 2 can be used in 100 languages and is good at mathematical reasoning, software development, language translation, and natural language generation.Around 20 Google products are using PaLM 2, and a lightweight version of PaLM 2 can run on mobile devices.2) Bard, the AI chatbot, has been upgraded to be powered by PaLM 2, providing more sophisticated responses. Bard's programming capabilities have also been improved, and it now integrates with various programming tools. Bard has learned more than 20 programming la
If Investing in AI Sector, Choose AI King MSFT or GOOG with Potential?
Why Should I Not Just Put All my Money in SPY?
2023 is a year of gains, with $S&P 500(.SPX)$ up 23% as of last Friday.However, some investors may only gain 10% or even lose.Why Should I Not Just Put All my Money in SPY?What’s your answer for this question?Do you regret any of your 2023 investment choices?Is the miss of $NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$ or BTC? Or buying at the high point?Will you put all of your money in $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$?Leave your comments and also post to win tiger coins!
Why Should I Not Just Put All my Money in SPY?
How to use combo options to trade earnings season?
Combo options are option trades constructed from multiple contracts of differing options. The combinations enable more precise risk management techniques, offer the potential for higher returns, and reduce the margin requirement.In the upcoming earnings season, what combo options are recommended to use?As the broader market $S&P 500(.SPX)$ already dips too much, the probability of the plunge in this earnings season get lower. The bullish combo strategy can offer insurance on top of “sell put“.1) Bull Put SpreadImagine you believe a stock won’t go down too much. In a bull put spread, you: Sell a Put Option: You sell a put option because you think the stock won't fall below that price.Buy Another Put Option: You also buy another put option
How to use combo options to trade earnings season?
So Long, Happy Nov.! How Do You Expect Santa Rally?
$NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ increased by 10.7%, achieving double-digit gains! $DJIA(.DJI)$ notched a new 2023 high and capped off its best month in more than a year.Have You Profited From Top Stock Gains in Nov.? $Roku Inc(ROKU)$ : +75% $Coinbase Global, Inc.(COIN)$ : +62% $Block(SQ)$ : +58% $Shopify(SHOP)$ : +54% $Snap Inc(SNAP)$ : +38% $Cloudflare, Inc.(NET)$ : +36% $Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$ : +35%
So Long, Happy Nov.! How Do You Expect Santa Rally?
[9th Anniv. Quiz] "Skip" is Certain? Investors' Focus on CPI Data!
The market is confident at “skip” at the June meeting, but Chairman Powell may express hawkish views indicating that the Fed is still prepared to continue raising rates when necessary.Investors need to closely monitor the upcoming CPI report because if the data exceeds expectations, it will have an impact on whether there will be a rate hike in June.The consensus for May CPI and core CPI is 4.1% and 5.3%.Headline CPI of 4.1% is much lower than the previous data of 4.9%; core CPI remains elevated at 5.3%, lower than the previous data of 5.5%. However, there is still debate regarding the path of rate hikes, and the market expects at least two more 25-basis-point rate increases. The pause should not be seen as the end: 25bps in July and more?The path of fut
[9th Anniv. Quiz] "Skip" is Certain? Investors' Focus on CPI Data!
Growth stocks rock the world!!! Time to bet on ARKK?
The anticipated rebound seems to come with growth stocks leading! $Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$ , $Shopify(SHOP)$ , $Roku Inc(ROKU)$ all surge about 20%, while big tech lag behind.Growth stocks rock the world in November!!!!!1) Streaming platform $Roku Inc(ROKU)$ skyrocketed over 30%.Revenue: $912 mln, surpassing expectation of $855.66 mln.Record-breaking streaming hours, totalling 26.7 bln, a 49% yoy increase.2) E-commerce $Shopify(SHOP)$ closed 22.36% higher. EPS: 24 cents, significantly higher than 15 cents expected.GMV (Gross Merchandise Volume) was over $56 b
Growth stocks rock the world!!! Time to bet on ARKK?
9th Anniversary Quiz: Investing & Tiger (8)
Hello, everyone! It’s time for quiz!!!!!!!Our eighth question is: What percentage of Tiger's US equities is self-clearing?Remember to write your answer in the comment section and repost!Don’t forget to follow me and join the quiz!
9th Anniversary Quiz: Investing & Tiger (8)
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