It was a year ago this month that the Fed launched its rate hike to combat inflation.At first, policymakers only take 25 basis points to tackle price surges. Subsequent months saw much larger hikes, enough to raise the Fed’s benchmark borrowing rate by 4.5 percentage points to its highest level since 2007.At this 1 year anniversary, we can review these questions:what's the end of the rate hike cycle?when will Fed stop rate hikes and turn to rate cuts?what's the target rate for March?1. What’s the end of this rate hike cycle? - 5.5% is a consensusThe benchmark rate currently

A research report led by strategist Savita Subramanian on Monday stated that among the 30 companies in the S&P 500 index that have already reported their earnings, 90% of them have exceeded earnings per share expectations, and 73% have surpassed revenue expectations.This is the biggest positive surprise in the first week of the reporting period since at least 2012, largely due to impressive earnings from $JPMorgan Chase(JPM)$, $Citigroup(C)$ , and $Wells Fargo(WFC)$.Driven by the impressive financial data, JPMorgan Chase's stock price surged by 7.55% on the same day, marking the largest single-day gain since November 2020.1. Major Banks Released Stellar Earnings A

Some argue that wars can create economic instability, leading to bearish trends in the stock market, while others contend that certain sectors, like defense and technology, might experience bullish growth during times of conflict.The war bulls list the wars and index performance. It seems that 4 out of 5 presented upward momentum after the war broke out.The bears compare the price trend of $S&P 500(.SPX)$ and oil prices $WTI Crude Oil - main 2311(CLmain)$ Let’s look at the recent war in 2022:The first chart shows that $S&P 500(.SPX)$ rebounded soon after Russia-Ukraine conflicts broke out on 24th Feb, 2022.However, for a longer period, the index kept

$First Republic Bank(FRC)$ plummeted to an all-time low in Tuesday’s trading session. The price per share hit an all-time low of $8.10 as the markets closed.It was driven by the latest earnings. Although the bank’s EPS in the first quarter topped analysts’ estimates, its deposit flight was worse than what analysts had estimated, plunging 41% to $104.5 billion, missing the estimates of $145 billion.Everyone is preparing for an imminent bankruptcy?The White House is expressing concerns about whether it has the capacity to find a solution for First Republic Bank's insolvency.The rescue plan for First Republic Bank did not succeed. The bank suspended its dividend and its shares continued to slump, raising speculation about the bank's future as a s

On Thursday, three major US stock indexes collectively closed higher. At the close, $S&P 500(.SPX)$ settled at 4293.93, rebounding 20% from its low point in October 2022, entering a technical bull market. It also signalled the ending of the longest $S&P 500(.SPX)$ bear market since the 1940s. Tech sector rally end the second longest bear marketThe S&P 500 index has been in bear market territory for 244 trading days, marking the longest duration since May 15, 1948. That year, the bear market lasted for 484 trading days. Historically, bear markets have an average duration of 142 trading days.S&P 500 index has risen 11.5% year-to-date, but a large portion of the gains are attributed to surges

As we approach the end of the June, some investors begin to forecast the stock market in the next half. Let’s look back at how we did the analysis at the beginning of the 2023.Most retail investors gained information by reading the report and outlooks released by institutions. Let’s find out if Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan are right or wrong in forecasting economy and stock market in 2023. The source are from Goldman and JPMorgan’s official website.Both of them are wrong at predicting the stock market trends in the first half as $S&P 500(.SPX)$ are trading at 4300.They are also wrong in terms of interest rates and inflation. The benchmark rate is now at the range of 5%-5.25% and the market is expecting at least another 25bps.May CPI is 4%, highe

Has the long-awaited market correction finally begun? Yesterday, technology stocks generally experienced a decline, with prominent AI companies such as $NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$ and $Microsoft(MSFT)$ dropping by 3%. $NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$ closed at $374.75, $Microsoft(MSFT)$ closed at $323.38.If I hold tech stocks, how can I hedge against this? This article will introduce three options strategies to hedge against the potential market correction. 1. Buy putYou can purchase put options on Nvidia and Microsoft to provide downside protection. In the event of a pullback, the value of the put options would increase, offsetting some of

Big tech collectively closed down yesterday due to the “special rebalancing“ while small cap $iShares Russell 2000 ETF(IWM)$ shows strength.1. Special rebalancing in $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ to reduce big tech’s weight to 38.5%The $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ is preparing to adjust the weightings of its 100 components, particularly focusing on the "magnificent seven" stocks: $Microsoft(MSFT)$ , $Apple(AAPL)$ , $NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$ , $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ , $Alphabet(GOOG)$,