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清谷天
2021-04-07
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21:08","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"Ren Zeping's speech today: Global economy and macro policy have reached a crossroads","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1128854887","media":"聪明投资者","summary":"“未来最好的投资机会就在中国，我们正站在新周期的起点上。因为过去10年，我们找到了中国问题的症结，并且因为前期的一些调整，具备了非常强大的执行力。”“中国正在回归货币政策的正常化，但是因为欧美经济刚刚从低谷走出来，甚至还相当的脆弱，包括疫情仍然让人感到担忧，所以它对货币的放水和刺激仍然有很强烈的诉求。”但事实上从经济宏观经济角度，这个逻辑是通不了的，3万亿美元是不太可能通过短期的征税来实现的。","content":"<p><b>\"The best investment opportunity in the future is in China, and we are standing at the starting point of the new cycle. Because in the past 10 years, we have found the crux of China's problem, and because of some early adjustments, we have very strong execution.\"</b></p><p><b>\"Since 2019, frankly speaking, we are still in a critical period, but many of our early reform measures have entered the release period of dividends.\"</b></p><p><b>\"China is returning to the normalization of monetary policy, but because the European and American economies have just come out of the trough and are even quite fragile, including the epidemic that is still worrying, it still has a strong demand for currency release and stimulation.\"</b></p><p><b>\"Biden is speaking to the outside world this time, where does $3 trillion come from, he will raise corporate income taxes and tax the rich.</b></p><p><b>But in fact, from the perspective of economic macroeconomy, this logic is not feasible, and $3 trillion is unlikely to be realized through short-term taxation. In essence, most of this $3 trillion infrastructure stimulus plan is through over-issuance of currency. \"</b></p><p><b>\"Why has the stock market, housing market, commodities, including gold, been rising since last year, and the Bitcoin has even reached a new high? The fundamental reason is that we have ushered in the flood of US dollar liquidity.\"</b></p><p><b>\"The prices of our basic raw materials, including copper and steel, have risen sharply recently, because it is priced globally, and China's CPI has not risen high. First, it is because of the normalization of our monetary policy, and second, it is just in the downward range of the pig cycle, so the main problem facing China is the pressure of imported inflation.\"</b></p><p><b>\"My understanding of modern monetary theory is that this may be an innovation of money and finance, but it may be a big regression in macroeconomic thinking.\"</b></p><p><b>\"The new infrastructure in the future includes three major areas:</b></p><p><b>New infrastructure in the field of science and technology represented by 5G, big data center, artificial intelligence, new energy vehicles and charging piles;</b></p><p><b>New infrastructure in the field of people's livelihood represented by education and medical care;</b></p><p><b>As well as new infrastructure in institutional fields such as business environment, service industry opening, and multi-level capital market construction. \"</b></p><p><b>\"China will face an accelerated population aging in the next 10 years, which will be one of the largest gray rhinos in China in the future.\"</b></p><p>Above, Yes<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601555\">Soochow Securities</a>Ren Zeping, chief economist, shared the latest wonderful views at the macro strategy report meeting of Soochow Securities a few days ago.</p><p>This strategy meeting is Ren Zeping's first appearance after joining Soochow Securities. Ren Zeping shared his views on China's economic transformation, the impact of global economic recovery and the flood of US dollar liquidity on China's economy, and the four main contradictions and countermeasures faced at present.</p><p>Smart investors compiled the full text of Ren Zeping's speech and shared it with you.</p><p>Distinguished guests, ladies and gentlemen, I am very pleased to introduce to you some of our views on China's future economic policy and market in the most beautiful season and the most beautiful city.</p><p><b>I am optimistic about the prospects of China's economic transformation</b></p><p>I went to sea in 2014 and made some points. As a long-term observer of China's economy, I have traveled around the world in recent years, first as a think tank in the State Council, and then as the chief economist in the world's largest real estate company. This time, I returned to the capital market and the securities industry. I would like to introduce some of our thoughts and observations on China's economy to you.</p><p>In the past few years, we have put forward some opinions and judgments every year. Fortunately, the judgments of these years are basically OK.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/87d9c7b78c2913545af7eaeb0bcbc71c\" tg-width=\"749\" tg-height=\"417\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>For example, in 2014, we proposed that the new 5% is better than the old 8%, and 5,000 points is not a dream; In 2015, we warned before the stock market crash that the altitude had been windy and slow, and predicted that the first-line house prices would double, and there would be an economic L-shape; Propose a new cycle in 2017; In 2019, when the market was very pessimistic, we proposed that the best investment opportunity in the future would be in China.</p><p>In 2020, I advocated new infrastructure, and later moved from academic discussion to national strategy. In the second half of last year, I advocated liberalizing fertility. This time, regarding our fertility policy and population policy, I think there will be a relatively big adjustment in the future.</p><p>I have also been wondering over the years, what is the mission of our generation of scholars? I have always believed that a person's value depends on value to others, to the institutions he serves, and to society.</p><p>At the beginning of this year, when the market was full of controversy, I mentioned at that time that the biggest logic or theme of the market this year should be inflation expectations.</p><p>Moreover, regarding the real estate field, I have put forward an analytical framework, which is called that real estate should look at the population in the long term, land in the medium term and finance in the short term. This analysis framework may be widely circulated in the real estate field, including an analysis framework used by large developers, many investors and practitioners.</p><p>Generally speaking, as an economist and observer of China's economy, although for example, when the market was crazy in 2015, we rationally warned of risks. However, since 2014, I am relatively optimistic among economists about the prospects of China's economic transformation.</p><p>Many people say that Dr. Ren is the largest bull in China's economy and capital market. Standing at such a point in time, we look at the future, how can we understand the era we are in and our current economic situation.</p><p>I would like to share with you some of our observations and latest views from an objective, rational, professional and independent perspective.</p><p><b>The new 5% is better than the old 8%</b></p><p><b>Don't worry about economic growth shifting gears</b></p><p><b>Improving the quality of growth is most important</b></p><p>I will roughly talk about three aspects: the first is about China's medium-and long-term economic development trend, the second is about our current economic situation, and finally, the four major contradictions that China is facing now and their responses.</p><p>First, the development trend of China's economy.</p><p>What kind of environment are we in? How to recognize the characteristics of this environment and the times in which we are living?</p><p>In the past 10 years, China's economy has undergone a very obvious change.</p><p>In the past 10 years, including the next 10 years, China's economic situation can not be simply explained by economic fluctuations. That is, 10 years ago, in the macro field, all mainstream economists engaged in a big debate. China's economy (growth rate) has increased from 14%, 10%, 9%, 8%, 7%, and now to 6%. What is the reason for this continuous decline? How do we cope?</p><p>At that time, it was roughly divided into two groups. One group believed that China's economy could return to high growth, so it was necessary to carry out large-scale stimulus to stimulate demand; The other faction was proposed by us at the Development Center of the State Council at that time. China may have to shift its growth rate, and our way out is to improve our total factor productivity and build our new growth platform and driving power mechanism through reform.</p><p>This is the biggest debate in the macro field 10 years ago. Against that background, I went to sea at that time to make a point that the new 5% is better than the old 8%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd1d1900d513ee51e74e970535a6e937\" tg-width=\"579\" tg-height=\"382\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>I have spent a long time studying economic history, including the economies in Latin America and Southeast Asia that have fallen into the middle-income trap, as well as Germany, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan Province, etc. that have successfully transitioned.</p><p>We found that at the critical point of moving from a developing country to a developed country, China's per capita GDP is emerging at $10,000, and we will become a developed country at 12,600 US dollars, that is, in the next 5 to 10 years.</p><p>However, many economies refuse to shift the growth rate, trying to stimulate it through currency pairs and pull it back to the high-growth platform. As a result, they maintained the old growth model, triggered a big financial crisis, and finally fell into the so-called middle-income trap.</p><p>Latin America and many Southeast Asian economies have made such serious mistakes. Only a few, accounting for only about 10% of the economies, such as Germany, Japan, South Korea and Taiwan Province, have successfully promoted reforms. When they moved from developing economies to the threshold of developed economies, they adopted the way of promoting reforms.</p><p><b>At that time, we proposed to shift the growth rate, and we must promote the reform of new energy, rather than a simple monetary stimulus, which can solve the proposition given to us in this era.</b></p><p>What was the reason I proposed at the time that the new 5% was better than the old 8%? That's everyone<b>Don't worry about economic growth shifting gears. The most important thing is to improve the quality of your growth.</b></p><p>In the future, the new growth platform of 5% built through reform is better than the old growth platform of 8% that was barely maintained by itself in the past. The interest rate has dropped, the stock market has gone bull, the industry has been upgraded, corporate profits have risen, residents' lives have improved, and the government's prestige has improved. Reform is the only way out, and the stimulus will brew a crisis.</p><p>I also mentioned the L-shaped economy, the new normal, from high-speed growth to high-quality development. These big judgments of the central government confirm the views advocated by our school of economists.</p><p>Why among economists, we are optimistic about the prospects of this round of reform and transformation of China's economy? First of all, because in the past 10 years, in our big debate in the macro field, I have solved a very important problem, that is, knowing the problem, realizing that we have to shift gears at the growth rate, and realizing that in the future, the new 5% will be better than the old 8%. Although the future is not high-speed growth, it will be high-quality development.</p><p>After we have solved the problem of cognition, our policies and reform measures are in place over the years. At that time, in order to study the transformation experience of South Korea, Japan and Germany, I read nearly a hundred monographs before and after, and I was very addicted to this research at that time.</p><p>The best textbook is actually economic history, because economics can't do experiments, but economic history gives us great inspiration.</p><p><b>We're still in a hard time</b></p><p><b>But many of the early reform initiatives</b></p><p><b>Enter the dividend release period</b></p><p>Many people say that every year our policies invent a new word, which is a lack of sufficient observation and state of China.</p><p>In fact, these statements are precisely the result of our understanding of China's current problems and the deepening of response measures. As a front-line economist, I am very touched.</p><p><b>This round of reform in China is divided into three stages. The first stage is the process of formation of reform expectations; The second stage is the painful period of landing and tackling difficulties; The third stage is the release period of dividends.</b></p><p>The first stage is the period when the reform expectations are formed and controversial, roughly from 2012 to 2015. The painful period of landing and tackling the difficulties is 2016, 2017 and 2018. At that time, the whole society, including our capital market, was filled with a very pessimistic atmosphere. What about leaving the field and washing and sleeping was because we were in a painful period.</p><p>In fact<b>Since 2019, frankly speaking, we are still in a critical period, but many of our early reform measures have entered the release period of dividends.</b></p><p>A relatively big turning point was actually at the end of 2015, when the central government proposed supply-side structural reform, which was of great turning significance.</p><p>At that time, we proposed \"three cuts, one reduction and one supplement\", reducing capacity, destocking, deleveraging, reducing costs and making up for shortcomings. Simply put, economics is called \"breaking the old and setting up the new\". We have to break the excess production capacity, excessive inventory and the risks of financial leverage accumulated by high growth in the past.</p><p>In the past few years, facing the Sino-US trade friction and the epidemic, China has not experienced major financial risks, because we have tied up the risk fence in advance and made preparations in advance.</p><p>Reduce costs and make up for shortcomings, this is to establish new ideas. We cultivate our own new economy, new technology, new industry. Later, there were three tough battles, including dual circulation, all of which were our continuous deepening of reforms to meet the challenge of the new 5% being better than the old 8% and high-quality development.</p><p>In fact, for example, it is logically self-consistent to promote the reform of the registration system, build a multi-level capital market, and rely on innovation to promote the high-quality development of the real economy.</p><p>Innovation and development finally depend on the capital market. Traditionally, this financing mode led by banks matches our original era of heavy chemical industry. In the future, China's large number of venture capital and new economy will need multi-level capital markets.</p><p>This time, the capital market has risen to a very important position, including registration system reform and anti-monopoly. These things are logically self-consistent, including carbon peak, carbon neutrality, high-level opening up to the outside world, etc. I won't go into details.</p><p>The overall conclusion is,<b>The best investment opportunity in the future is in China, and we are standing at the starting point of the new cycle.</b>Because in the past 10 years, we have found the crux of China's problem, and because of some early adjustments, we have a very strong execution power.</p><p>This is the context of the environment we are in.</p><p><b>We will face the resonance of the global economic recovery in 2021</b></p><p>Now let me report to you about our current economic situation.</p><p>There is no doubt that China is ahead of the world in fighting the pandemic and resuming production.</p><p>Our GDP growth rates in last four quarters were-6.8%, 3.2%, 4.9% and 6.5% respectively. What is the concept of 6.5%? In 2019, China's GDP growth rate was 6.1%. In the fourth quarter of last year, China has returned to its potential growth rate.</p><p>And among the world's major economies, China was the only one to achieve positive growth last year.</p><p><b>So since 2019, we have begun to enjoy the dividend of reform, but it doesn't mean that the task of reform is completed.</b>We still face many challenges behind us, but the big idea has turned around.</p><p><b>A very important feature of 2021 is that we will face the resonance of the global economic recovery</b>。</p><p>In the second quarter of last year, China's economy recovered. This year, with the large-scale vaccination of the United States, Europe and Japan, and Biden's launch of an infrastructure stimulus plan of up to $3 trillion, we may usher in a global recovery resonance.</p><p>What is the concept of $3 trillion? In 2009, we stimulated 4 trillion dollars, 3 trillion dollars, which is an infrastructure stimulus plan of nearly 20 trillion yuan.</p><p><b>China is returning to monetary policy normalization</b></p><p><b>Europe and America still have strong demands for currency release and stimulus</b></p><p>Because the recovery cycles of China, the United States and Europe are different, China is the first to recover, and the United States and Europe only began to enter the recovery stage this year. In this way, everyone's policy mix and demands are different.</p><p>China is ushering in a cyclical inflection point of broad liquidity, because as inflation expectations rise and the economy returns to its potential growth rate, we begin to normalize monetary policy and tighten structural credit policies in areas such as real estate and local debt.</p><p>At the beginning of this year, I proposed that China was ushering in an inflection point of liquidity. At that time, everyone was very arguing this view, and recently verified this judgment.</p><p><b>China is returning to the normalization of monetary policy, but because the European and American economies have just come out of the trough and are even quite fragile, including the epidemic that is still worrying, it still has a strong demand for currency release and stimulus.</b></p><p>Therefore, the tracks of this round of global economic recovery in Europe and the United States, including China, are different, which leads to different policy demands. We have begun to normalize monetary policy, and Europe and the United States may still be in a stage of low interest rates and water stimulation, which has brought about global inflation expectations.</p><p>If we want to set a short-term macroeconomic keyword in 2021, or one of the biggest features, it is inflation expectations.</p><p>We ushered in inflation expectations, including the resonance of the global economic recovery, including Biden's wish to revive the United States, the launch of a $3 trillion infrastructure stimulus plan, and the flood of dollar liquidity.</p><p><b>Dollar liquidity flooding</b></p><p><b>China is under pressure from imported inflation</b></p><p>Why do you finally talk about the flood of dollar liquidity?</p><p><b>This time, Biden said to the outside world, where will $3 trillion come from? He will raise corporate income taxes and tax the rich.</b></p><p><b>But in fact, from the perspective of economic macroeconomy, this logic is not feasible, and $3 trillion is unlikely to be realized through short-term taxation. In essence, most of the $3 trillion infrastructure stimulus plan is through over-issuance of currency.</b></p><p>That's why I want to focus on a question for you.</p><p>This time, many people say that the global inflation is due to the recovery of demand, and the recovery of demand is far from supporting such high inflation, including the bubble of broad asset prices.</p><p>Now the European and American economies are still lying on the floor, just showing signs of recovery. The American stock market has reached a new high, and the house prices of the two coastlines have reached a new high. What is the reason? The excessive issuance of currency and the proliferation of US dollar liquidity.</p><p>Since the pandemic last year, the United States has introduced QE, QQE, and unlimited QE, and bought American Treasury Bond and even commercial tickets by printing money.</p><p>Look at the yellow line. This yellow line is the growth rate of M2 in the United States, which is the growth rate of broad money supply in the United States. That's the highest value in 20 years, and it's surprisingly high.</p><p>Later, I will tell you about a dilemma and change faced by the whole field of macroeconomics. Either you will go all the way on the road of releasing water. 63% of the world's foreign exchange reserves are US dollars, and the excess issuance of US dollars by the United States is actually equivalent to sharing the cost with the whole world, but we can't.</p><p>Because we are a non-reserve currency country, if China's currency is over-issued, it is actually shared by residents, or residents' cash flow assets are diluted.</p><p>This is the<b>The fundamental reason why the stock market, housing market, commodities, including gold, have all risen since last year, and the Bitcoin has hit new highs is that we have ushered in a flood of dollar liquidity</b>That is what we are facing.</p><p>Gold is a physical currency, and Bitcoin is a super-sovereign currency. The sharp rise of gold and Bitcoin, including the obvious rise of broad inflation, shows that everyone does not trust the credit currency of national sovereignty represented by the US dollar. This has brought a significant rise in inflation expectations this year.</p><p>The concept of inflation is quite controversial in economics, but it tells a very common sense problem. Inflation is a monetary phenomenon at any time and anywhere. If there are too many banknotes printed, something will always rise. If money floods, commodities will generally rise.</p><p>Since the second half of last year, China has begun to promote the normalization of monetary policy. As the Prime Minister said at the two sessions this time, we didn't overissue currency last year, so this year we don't have to make a sharp turn, but implement the normalization of monetary policy. However, it is worth noting that because commodities are priced globally, although the overall inflation in China is not high, the prices of PPI and industrial products are rising.</p><p>The prices of our basic raw materials, including copper and steel, have risen sharply recently, because they are priced globally, and China's CPI has not risen high. First, it is because our monetary policy has normalized, and second, it is just in the downward range of the pig cycle. So<b>The main problem facing China is the pressure of imported inflation.</b></p><p><b>This round of economic recovery is a K-type recovery</b></p><p><b>The global economy and macro policy have reached a crossroads</b></p><p>In this round of economic recovery, we are facing a very important new phenomenon, called K-shaped recovery. This is a topic that has been discussed more recently in the macroeconomic field.</p><p>In the past, the economic recovery generally had U-shaped recovery and V-shaped recovery, that is, under the background of economic recovery, the situation of most people has improved, the overall income has improved, and the employment has improved.</p><p>The K-shaped recovery means that some people are improving and some are deteriorating. Although the economy as a whole is recovering, the stock market and housing market are rising, and the prices of all kinds of assets are rising, the situation of some people, or even most people, is deteriorating.</p><p>Why did K-type resuscitation occur? That's to say back to global over-dependence on currencies.</p><p>I think<b>The global economy and macro policy have reached a crossroads.</b>I remember one year when Dario came to China to promote his new book, he asked four people to help him stand up, and I was one of them. He concluded by saying that the current income distribution gap in the United States is very similar to that before the Great Depression, which was a financial crisis, an economic crisis, a social crisis, a political crisis, and finally a military crisis-the outbreak of war.</p><p>According to this logic, the fundamental cause is not an economic problem, but a social problem, or an income distribution problem.</p><p>In fact, the world is facing similar challenges, because excessive dependence on money has led to a K-shaped recovery and a widening gap between wealth and income, which in turn has led to a series of trends of thought such as populism and anti-globalization.</p><p><b>MMT could be an innovation in monetary finance</b></p><p><b>But it may be a major step back in macroeconomic thinking</b></p><p>The history is very similar, and 100 years ago it was a similar sight. What should I do when I stand at this intersection? Economists want to give a solution. Now there are two factions in the whole field of economics. One faction is represented by China, which wants to return to the normalization of monetary policy, promote reform and improve total factor productivity.</p><p>The other faction is MMT, modern monetary theory. Simply put, its idea is that tax determines the issuance of currency. As long as there is no problem with national sovereignty, the issuance of currency can be unlimited, that is, there should be no upper limit on the government debt at all, and it can be circulated indefinitely through the issuance of government bonds, including the issuance of currency.</p><p>This is the modern monetary theory that everyone is talking about now, that is, it has really gone far on the road of releasing water to stimulate. My understanding of modern monetary theory is,<b>This may be an innovation in money and finance, but it may be a big step backwards in macroeconomic thinking.</b></p><p>But we are lucky that China did not choose this theory, so last year the mainstream public policy voice in China was critical of MMT.</p><p>When it comes to the perspective on large asset classes, the clues are pretty clear. As an old researcher who has been analyzing the macroeconomic situation for 20 years, I think we must return to the bottom logic in the end. The main logic of this year's economic situation is inflation expectation, which means that the varieties with low valuation and expected price increase must benefit this year.</p><p>Therefore, these are the things that have done better in the market recently. In the past two years, the high valuation has been killing the valuation because of the rise of interest rates. Finally, these basic logics are all established.</p><p><b>Sino-US trade friction is long-term and severe</b></p><p>Finally, let me tell you about the four major contradictions and countermeasures we are facing now.</p><p><b>The first major contradiction is undoubtedly the Sino-US trade friction, which is what we call a major change unseen in a century.</b></p><p>What is the nature of Sino-US trade friction?</p><p>After more than 40 years of China's reform and opening up, our current economic scale is 70% of that of the United States, and more importantly, we are still growing at a rate of 5~6%, which is 2~3 times that of the United States. According to this trend, around 2030, China's economic scale will surpass that of the United States and become the largest economy in the world.</p><p>For each of us Chinese, this means the day when the Chinese nation will return to the top of the world. Moreover, we are very lucky to catch up with the tide of the times, and we can see history. However, throughout the history of the world economy, in the past 100 years or so, since the United States surpassed Britain and became the world's largest economy, no one has surpassed him.</p><p>There have been two challengers, the former Soviet Union and Japan, both of whom have broken out in conflict with the United States, and not simply in the trade field, including geopolitical, ideological, financial and even military all-out confrontations.</p><p>China will become the world's largest economy again in 7 to 10 years. What will happen during this time? The answer is very clear,<b>The essence of trade friction between China and the United States is to contain the rise of emerging powers as a reigning hegemonic country. It has a long-term and severe nature. Our best response is to push forward a new round of reform and opening-up with greater courage and unswerving. In this regard, we should remain sober and calm and strategically determined.</b></p><p>But I also strongly agree with the call of an elder, Mr. Kissinger: For the sake of world peace and long-term prosperity, China and the United States must have more dialogue and exchanges, and both sides must make adjustments, because the whole governance landscape of the world has undergone profound changes.</p><p>From the perspective of the United States, in the next decade, the United States should adjust its mentality and accept a rising China that is integrated into globalization. China should also adjust its mentality. When we become stronger, we should assume global responsibilities accordingly and respect the global rules of the game.</p><p><b>New infrastructure in the future includes three major areas</b></p><p>The second major contradiction is innovation and development.</p><p>In the past, we achieved high growth by relying on demographic dividend, factor dividend, etc. In the future, we need innovation-driven development if we want high-quality development. In this respect, I advocate new infrastructure. In recent years, the new infrastructure I advocate has moved from academic discussion to national strategy. For a scholar, this is my greatest contribution.</p><p><b>In the short term, new infrastructure is conducive to expanding demand, steady growth and employment, and in the long term, it will help to cultivate China's new technologies,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300832\">New industries</a>And a new economy to build a new engine for China's economy.</b></p><p>In the past 40 years or so, China itself has been the beneficiary of large-scale advanced infrastructure construction. Why can't India seize the dividend of globalization but China does? A very important reason is infrastructure construction.</p><p><b>The new infrastructure in the future includes three major areas:</b></p><p><b>New infrastructure in the field of science and technology represented by 5G, big data center, artificial intelligence, new energy vehicles and charging piles;</b></p><p><b>New infrastructure in the field of people's livelihood represented by education and medical care;</b></p><p><b>As well as new infrastructure in institutional fields such as business environment, opening up of service industry, and construction of multi-level capital market.</b></p><p><b>China will face an aging population</b></p><p><b>This will be one of the biggest gray rhinos of the future</b></p><p><b>The third major contradiction is that China will face an accelerated population aging in the next 10 years, which will be one of the largest gray rhinos in China in the future.</b></p><p>In the past 2 or 30 years, people didn't have to care about the aging population at all, but in the next 10 years, it will be a big event. Because China's baby boom was from 1962 to 1976, we benefited from the demographic dividend of this baby boom. China's past high growth was achieved by this group of people when they were young, which just superimposed the globalization dividend.</p><p>But those born in 1962 are now 59 and will retire next year.</p><p>That's why extended retirement is being discussed in public policy, because without policy adjustments, people born during this baby boom in China will exit the labor market at an accelerated rate- -that's not the point of my talk.</p><p><b>The point is that China's aging is not coming slowly like Europe and the United States, because China has family planning, and China's population aging will come and accelerate in the next 5~10 years.</b></p><p>Therefore, the 14th Five-Year Plan, including this government work report, all proposed to raise the response to population aging to a national strategy, because we are still getting old before we get rich. Europe, America and Japan all began to age their populations after entering developed countries, and our per capita GDP just exceeded 10,000 US dollars, which ushered in an aging challenge. Therefore, I also call for the liberalization of childbearing.</p><p>From the perspective of the development trend, the speed and scale of China's population aging are unprecedented. In a deeply aging society in 2022 and a super-aging society in 2033, by 2060, one of the three people is over 65 years old, and there is also the problem of low birth.</p><p>What are the problems of an aging population?</p><p>The potential growth rate of China's economy will decline; Rising labor costs; Investment rate savings rate declined; Social dependency ratio and old-age burden increase; Both government debt and social security pressure will rise, and more importantly, the vitality of society will decline.</p><p>Therefore, in response to the challenges of population aging and low birth, we should liberalize reproductive rights as soon as possible, return reproductive rights to families, speed up the construction of a reproductive support system, and actively respond to the aging population and build an age-friendly society. This is a great challenge for us.</p><p><b>The fundamental problem of real estate is the mismatch between people and land and the excessive issuance of currency</b></p><p><b>The fourth main contradiction is our hardest bubble-real estate.</b></p><p>I originally mentioned that real estate depends on population in the long term, land in the medium term and finance in the short term. We have studied more than a dozen cases of real estate and housing systems representing economies in the past hundred years. The basic conclusion is that the housing system determines the real estate market, and the system is its gene, and the gene has a strong self-reproduction ability.</p><p>China's real estate has come to this day because at that time, our housing reform learned from Hong Kong, China, and Hong Kong, China learned from the United Kingdom-both economies have high housing prices.</p><p>Strictly speaking, Hong Kong's housing reform is a lesson, far from a successful experience. In the United States and Japan, their real estate policies are also unsuccessful, because the excessive issuance of currency has brought serious asset price bubbles and financial risks.</p><p>What countries have successful real estate reform? Germany and Singapore, they engage in leasing, including strong currency control.</p><p><b>Based on our research on international experience, we believe that the key to the long-term stable and healthy development of China's real estate is the linkage between people and land and financial stability. People are demand, land is supply, and finance is leverage.</b></p><p>Frankly, our knowledge and academic discussion of real estate is still a long way from actually solving the problem. The real estate chaos we have seen in the past one or two years is not unusual in our research framework.</p><p>The fundamental problem of China's real estate is the mismatch between people and land and the excessive issuance of currency in the past.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b56ae95a7634a2c80c80e346c17e78a6\" tg-width=\"591\" tg-height=\"435\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In the past, our idea of controlling big cities, developing small and medium-sized towns and balanced regional development with the thinking of planned economy was wrong. This idea led to the gathering of people in large metropolitan areas, but the land index was not supplied, which led to the mismatch between people and land, high housing prices in first-and second-tier cities and high inventory in third-and fourth-tier cities-this is completely solved.</p><p>Economically and technically, as a scholar, I can responsibly tell you,<b>There is still a solution to China's real estate to this day, and we still have the time window of the last ten years</b>But we have to solve the problem of cognition first. This is the main point of my report to you.</p><p><b>Taking the Seven Major Reforms as a Breakthrough Point</b></p><p><b>China will open a new cycle and a new development pattern</b></p><p>With the seven major reforms as a breakthrough in the future, we believe that China will open a new cycle and a new development pattern.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c27ea5fe7412ff498dda305649bad3b8\" tg-width=\"629\" tg-height=\"434\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The seven major reforms include —</p><p>The first is new infrastructure;</p><p>The second is the urbanization of metropolitan areas and urban agglomerations where people and land are linked and factors flow;</p><p>The third is to liberalize fertility;</p><p>The fourth is to open up the dual cycle of capital market and technological innovation;</p><p>The fifth is large-scale tax and fee reduction;</p><p>The sixth is to take the Sino-US trade friction as an opportunity to promote a new round of reform and opening up;</p><p>Seventh, establish our new nation-building strategy. What is the founding strategy? It is a similar strategy that we have benefited from in the past 40 years. Under the background of seeing the trends and trends of the world economy in the next few decades, we will formulate a strategy that will be beneficial to me in the long term. We are now in a period of strategic transformation.</p><p>These are the main points I will report to you today. We are undergoing great changes unseen in a century, and at the same time, we are ushering in great opportunities unseen in a century. We are convinced that with the implementation of a new round of reform and opening up and the release of future reform dividends, as a long-term optimist of China's economy and capital market, we believe that the best investment opportunity in the future will be in China. Thank you!</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Ren Zeping's speech today: Global economy and macro policy have reached a crossroads</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nRen Zeping's speech today: Global economy and macro policy have reached a crossroads\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1072656223\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/fb7d47b7d71e40bb922cfa2979932b7f);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">聪明投资者 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-04-06 21:08</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>\"The best investment opportunity in the future is in China, and we are standing at the starting point of the new cycle. Because in the past 10 years, we have found the crux of China's problem, and because of some early adjustments, we have very strong execution.\"</b></p><p><b>\"Since 2019, frankly speaking, we are still in a critical period, but many of our early reform measures have entered the release period of dividends.\"</b></p><p><b>\"China is returning to the normalization of monetary policy, but because the European and American economies have just come out of the trough and are even quite fragile, including the epidemic that is still worrying, it still has a strong demand for currency release and stimulation.\"</b></p><p><b>\"Biden is speaking to the outside world this time, where does $3 trillion come from, he will raise corporate income taxes and tax the rich.</b></p><p><b>But in fact, from the perspective of economic macroeconomy, this logic is not feasible, and $3 trillion is unlikely to be realized through short-term taxation. In essence, most of this $3 trillion infrastructure stimulus plan is through over-issuance of currency. \"</b></p><p><b>\"Why has the stock market, housing market, commodities, including gold, been rising since last year, and the Bitcoin has even reached a new high? The fundamental reason is that we have ushered in the flood of US dollar liquidity.\"</b></p><p><b>\"The prices of our basic raw materials, including copper and steel, have risen sharply recently, because it is priced globally, and China's CPI has not risen high. First, it is because of the normalization of our monetary policy, and second, it is just in the downward range of the pig cycle, so the main problem facing China is the pressure of imported inflation.\"</b></p><p><b>\"My understanding of modern monetary theory is that this may be an innovation of money and finance, but it may be a big regression in macroeconomic thinking.\"</b></p><p><b>\"The new infrastructure in the future includes three major areas:</b></p><p><b>New infrastructure in the field of science and technology represented by 5G, big data center, artificial intelligence, new energy vehicles and charging piles;</b></p><p><b>New infrastructure in the field of people's livelihood represented by education and medical care;</b></p><p><b>As well as new infrastructure in institutional fields such as business environment, service industry opening, and multi-level capital market construction. \"</b></p><p><b>\"China will face an accelerated population aging in the next 10 years, which will be one of the largest gray rhinos in China in the future.\"</b></p><p>Above, Yes<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601555\">Soochow Securities</a>Ren Zeping, chief economist, shared the latest wonderful views at the macro strategy report meeting of Soochow Securities a few days ago.</p><p>This strategy meeting is Ren Zeping's first appearance after joining Soochow Securities. Ren Zeping shared his views on China's economic transformation, the impact of global economic recovery and the flood of US dollar liquidity on China's economy, and the four main contradictions and countermeasures faced at present.</p><p>Smart investors compiled the full text of Ren Zeping's speech and shared it with you.</p><p>Distinguished guests, ladies and gentlemen, I am very pleased to introduce to you some of our views on China's future economic policy and market in the most beautiful season and the most beautiful city.</p><p><b>I am optimistic about the prospects of China's economic transformation</b></p><p>I went to sea in 2014 and made some points. As a long-term observer of China's economy, I have traveled around the world in recent years, first as a think tank in the State Council, and then as the chief economist in the world's largest real estate company. This time, I returned to the capital market and the securities industry. I would like to introduce some of our thoughts and observations on China's economy to you.</p><p>In the past few years, we have put forward some opinions and judgments every year. Fortunately, the judgments of these years are basically OK.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/87d9c7b78c2913545af7eaeb0bcbc71c\" tg-width=\"749\" tg-height=\"417\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>For example, in 2014, we proposed that the new 5% is better than the old 8%, and 5,000 points is not a dream; In 2015, we warned before the stock market crash that the altitude had been windy and slow, and predicted that the first-line house prices would double, and there would be an economic L-shape; Propose a new cycle in 2017; In 2019, when the market was very pessimistic, we proposed that the best investment opportunity in the future would be in China.</p><p>In 2020, I advocated new infrastructure, and later moved from academic discussion to national strategy. In the second half of last year, I advocated liberalizing fertility. This time, regarding our fertility policy and population policy, I think there will be a relatively big adjustment in the future.</p><p>I have also been wondering over the years, what is the mission of our generation of scholars? I have always believed that a person's value depends on value to others, to the institutions he serves, and to society.</p><p>At the beginning of this year, when the market was full of controversy, I mentioned at that time that the biggest logic or theme of the market this year should be inflation expectations.</p><p>Moreover, regarding the real estate field, I have put forward an analytical framework, which is called that real estate should look at the population in the long term, land in the medium term and finance in the short term. This analysis framework may be widely circulated in the real estate field, including an analysis framework used by large developers, many investors and practitioners.</p><p>Generally speaking, as an economist and observer of China's economy, although for example, when the market was crazy in 2015, we rationally warned of risks. However, since 2014, I am relatively optimistic among economists about the prospects of China's economic transformation.</p><p>Many people say that Dr. Ren is the largest bull in China's economy and capital market. Standing at such a point in time, we look at the future, how can we understand the era we are in and our current economic situation.</p><p>I would like to share with you some of our observations and latest views from an objective, rational, professional and independent perspective.</p><p><b>The new 5% is better than the old 8%</b></p><p><b>Don't worry about economic growth shifting gears</b></p><p><b>Improving the quality of growth is most important</b></p><p>I will roughly talk about three aspects: the first is about China's medium-and long-term economic development trend, the second is about our current economic situation, and finally, the four major contradictions that China is facing now and their responses.</p><p>First, the development trend of China's economy.</p><p>What kind of environment are we in? How to recognize the characteristics of this environment and the times in which we are living?</p><p>In the past 10 years, China's economy has undergone a very obvious change.</p><p>In the past 10 years, including the next 10 years, China's economic situation can not be simply explained by economic fluctuations. That is, 10 years ago, in the macro field, all mainstream economists engaged in a big debate. China's economy (growth rate) has increased from 14%, 10%, 9%, 8%, 7%, and now to 6%. What is the reason for this continuous decline? How do we cope?</p><p>At that time, it was roughly divided into two groups. One group believed that China's economy could return to high growth, so it was necessary to carry out large-scale stimulus to stimulate demand; The other faction was proposed by us at the Development Center of the State Council at that time. China may have to shift its growth rate, and our way out is to improve our total factor productivity and build our new growth platform and driving power mechanism through reform.</p><p>This is the biggest debate in the macro field 10 years ago. Against that background, I went to sea at that time to make a point that the new 5% is better than the old 8%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd1d1900d513ee51e74e970535a6e937\" tg-width=\"579\" tg-height=\"382\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>I have spent a long time studying economic history, including the economies in Latin America and Southeast Asia that have fallen into the middle-income trap, as well as Germany, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan Province, etc. that have successfully transitioned.</p><p>We found that at the critical point of moving from a developing country to a developed country, China's per capita GDP is emerging at $10,000, and we will become a developed country at 12,600 US dollars, that is, in the next 5 to 10 years.</p><p>However, many economies refuse to shift the growth rate, trying to stimulate it through currency pairs and pull it back to the high-growth platform. As a result, they maintained the old growth model, triggered a big financial crisis, and finally fell into the so-called middle-income trap.</p><p>Latin America and many Southeast Asian economies have made such serious mistakes. Only a few, accounting for only about 10% of the economies, such as Germany, Japan, South Korea and Taiwan Province, have successfully promoted reforms. When they moved from developing economies to the threshold of developed economies, they adopted the way of promoting reforms.</p><p><b>At that time, we proposed to shift the growth rate, and we must promote the reform of new energy, rather than a simple monetary stimulus, which can solve the proposition given to us in this era.</b></p><p>What was the reason I proposed at the time that the new 5% was better than the old 8%? That's everyone<b>Don't worry about economic growth shifting gears. The most important thing is to improve the quality of your growth.</b></p><p>In the future, the new growth platform of 5% built through reform is better than the old growth platform of 8% that was barely maintained by itself in the past. The interest rate has dropped, the stock market has gone bull, the industry has been upgraded, corporate profits have risen, residents' lives have improved, and the government's prestige has improved. Reform is the only way out, and the stimulus will brew a crisis.</p><p>I also mentioned the L-shaped economy, the new normal, from high-speed growth to high-quality development. These big judgments of the central government confirm the views advocated by our school of economists.</p><p>Why among economists, we are optimistic about the prospects of this round of reform and transformation of China's economy? First of all, because in the past 10 years, in our big debate in the macro field, I have solved a very important problem, that is, knowing the problem, realizing that we have to shift gears at the growth rate, and realizing that in the future, the new 5% will be better than the old 8%. Although the future is not high-speed growth, it will be high-quality development.</p><p>After we have solved the problem of cognition, our policies and reform measures are in place over the years. At that time, in order to study the transformation experience of South Korea, Japan and Germany, I read nearly a hundred monographs before and after, and I was very addicted to this research at that time.</p><p>The best textbook is actually economic history, because economics can't do experiments, but economic history gives us great inspiration.</p><p><b>We're still in a hard time</b></p><p><b>But many of the early reform initiatives</b></p><p><b>Enter the dividend release period</b></p><p>Many people say that every year our policies invent a new word, which is a lack of sufficient observation and state of China.</p><p>In fact, these statements are precisely the result of our understanding of China's current problems and the deepening of response measures. As a front-line economist, I am very touched.</p><p><b>This round of reform in China is divided into three stages. The first stage is the process of formation of reform expectations; The second stage is the painful period of landing and tackling difficulties; The third stage is the release period of dividends.</b></p><p>The first stage is the period when the reform expectations are formed and controversial, roughly from 2012 to 2015. The painful period of landing and tackling the difficulties is 2016, 2017 and 2018. At that time, the whole society, including our capital market, was filled with a very pessimistic atmosphere. What about leaving the field and washing and sleeping was because we were in a painful period.</p><p>In fact<b>Since 2019, frankly speaking, we are still in a critical period, but many of our early reform measures have entered the release period of dividends.</b></p><p>A relatively big turning point was actually at the end of 2015, when the central government proposed supply-side structural reform, which was of great turning significance.</p><p>At that time, we proposed \"three cuts, one reduction and one supplement\", reducing capacity, destocking, deleveraging, reducing costs and making up for shortcomings. Simply put, economics is called \"breaking the old and setting up the new\". We have to break the excess production capacity, excessive inventory and the risks of financial leverage accumulated by high growth in the past.</p><p>In the past few years, facing the Sino-US trade friction and the epidemic, China has not experienced major financial risks, because we have tied up the risk fence in advance and made preparations in advance.</p><p>Reduce costs and make up for shortcomings, this is to establish new ideas. We cultivate our own new economy, new technology, new industry. Later, there were three tough battles, including dual circulation, all of which were our continuous deepening of reforms to meet the challenge of the new 5% being better than the old 8% and high-quality development.</p><p>In fact, for example, it is logically self-consistent to promote the reform of the registration system, build a multi-level capital market, and rely on innovation to promote the high-quality development of the real economy.</p><p>Innovation and development finally depend on the capital market. Traditionally, this financing mode led by banks matches our original era of heavy chemical industry. In the future, China's large number of venture capital and new economy will need multi-level capital markets.</p><p>This time, the capital market has risen to a very important position, including registration system reform and anti-monopoly. These things are logically self-consistent, including carbon peak, carbon neutrality, high-level opening up to the outside world, etc. I won't go into details.</p><p>The overall conclusion is,<b>The best investment opportunity in the future is in China, and we are standing at the starting point of the new cycle.</b>Because in the past 10 years, we have found the crux of China's problem, and because of some early adjustments, we have a very strong execution power.</p><p>This is the context of the environment we are in.</p><p><b>We will face the resonance of the global economic recovery in 2021</b></p><p>Now let me report to you about our current economic situation.</p><p>There is no doubt that China is ahead of the world in fighting the pandemic and resuming production.</p><p>Our GDP growth rates in last four quarters were-6.8%, 3.2%, 4.9% and 6.5% respectively. What is the concept of 6.5%? In 2019, China's GDP growth rate was 6.1%. In the fourth quarter of last year, China has returned to its potential growth rate.</p><p>And among the world's major economies, China was the only one to achieve positive growth last year.</p><p><b>So since 2019, we have begun to enjoy the dividend of reform, but it doesn't mean that the task of reform is completed.</b>We still face many challenges behind us, but the big idea has turned around.</p><p><b>A very important feature of 2021 is that we will face the resonance of the global economic recovery</b>。</p><p>In the second quarter of last year, China's economy recovered. This year, with the large-scale vaccination of the United States, Europe and Japan, and Biden's launch of an infrastructure stimulus plan of up to $3 trillion, we may usher in a global recovery resonance.</p><p>What is the concept of $3 trillion? In 2009, we stimulated 4 trillion dollars, 3 trillion dollars, which is an infrastructure stimulus plan of nearly 20 trillion yuan.</p><p><b>China is returning to monetary policy normalization</b></p><p><b>Europe and America still have strong demands for currency release and stimulus</b></p><p>Because the recovery cycles of China, the United States and Europe are different, China is the first to recover, and the United States and Europe only began to enter the recovery stage this year. In this way, everyone's policy mix and demands are different.</p><p>China is ushering in a cyclical inflection point of broad liquidity, because as inflation expectations rise and the economy returns to its potential growth rate, we begin to normalize monetary policy and tighten structural credit policies in areas such as real estate and local debt.</p><p>At the beginning of this year, I proposed that China was ushering in an inflection point of liquidity. At that time, everyone was very arguing this view, and recently verified this judgment.</p><p><b>China is returning to the normalization of monetary policy, but because the European and American economies have just come out of the trough and are even quite fragile, including the epidemic that is still worrying, it still has a strong demand for currency release and stimulus.</b></p><p>Therefore, the tracks of this round of global economic recovery in Europe and the United States, including China, are different, which leads to different policy demands. We have begun to normalize monetary policy, and Europe and the United States may still be in a stage of low interest rates and water stimulation, which has brought about global inflation expectations.</p><p>If we want to set a short-term macroeconomic keyword in 2021, or one of the biggest features, it is inflation expectations.</p><p>We ushered in inflation expectations, including the resonance of the global economic recovery, including Biden's wish to revive the United States, the launch of a $3 trillion infrastructure stimulus plan, and the flood of dollar liquidity.</p><p><b>Dollar liquidity flooding</b></p><p><b>China is under pressure from imported inflation</b></p><p>Why do you finally talk about the flood of dollar liquidity?</p><p><b>This time, Biden said to the outside world, where will $3 trillion come from? He will raise corporate income taxes and tax the rich.</b></p><p><b>But in fact, from the perspective of economic macroeconomy, this logic is not feasible, and $3 trillion is unlikely to be realized through short-term taxation. In essence, most of the $3 trillion infrastructure stimulus plan is through over-issuance of currency.</b></p><p>That's why I want to focus on a question for you.</p><p>This time, many people say that the global inflation is due to the recovery of demand, and the recovery of demand is far from supporting such high inflation, including the bubble of broad asset prices.</p><p>Now the European and American economies are still lying on the floor, just showing signs of recovery. The American stock market has reached a new high, and the house prices of the two coastlines have reached a new high. What is the reason? The excessive issuance of currency and the proliferation of US dollar liquidity.</p><p>Since the pandemic last year, the United States has introduced QE, QQE, and unlimited QE, and bought American Treasury Bond and even commercial tickets by printing money.</p><p>Look at the yellow line. This yellow line is the growth rate of M2 in the United States, which is the growth rate of broad money supply in the United States. That's the highest value in 20 years, and it's surprisingly high.</p><p>Later, I will tell you about a dilemma and change faced by the whole field of macroeconomics. Either you will go all the way on the road of releasing water. 63% of the world's foreign exchange reserves are US dollars, and the excess issuance of US dollars by the United States is actually equivalent to sharing the cost with the whole world, but we can't.</p><p>Because we are a non-reserve currency country, if China's currency is over-issued, it is actually shared by residents, or residents' cash flow assets are diluted.</p><p>This is the<b>The fundamental reason why the stock market, housing market, commodities, including gold, have all risen since last year, and the Bitcoin has hit new highs is that we have ushered in a flood of dollar liquidity</b>That is what we are facing.</p><p>Gold is a physical currency, and Bitcoin is a super-sovereign currency. The sharp rise of gold and Bitcoin, including the obvious rise of broad inflation, shows that everyone does not trust the credit currency of national sovereignty represented by the US dollar. This has brought a significant rise in inflation expectations this year.</p><p>The concept of inflation is quite controversial in economics, but it tells a very common sense problem. Inflation is a monetary phenomenon at any time and anywhere. If there are too many banknotes printed, something will always rise. If money floods, commodities will generally rise.</p><p>Since the second half of last year, China has begun to promote the normalization of monetary policy. As the Prime Minister said at the two sessions this time, we didn't overissue currency last year, so this year we don't have to make a sharp turn, but implement the normalization of monetary policy. However, it is worth noting that because commodities are priced globally, although the overall inflation in China is not high, the prices of PPI and industrial products are rising.</p><p>The prices of our basic raw materials, including copper and steel, have risen sharply recently, because they are priced globally, and China's CPI has not risen high. First, it is because our monetary policy has normalized, and second, it is just in the downward range of the pig cycle. So<b>The main problem facing China is the pressure of imported inflation.</b></p><p><b>This round of economic recovery is a K-type recovery</b></p><p><b>The global economy and macro policy have reached a crossroads</b></p><p>In this round of economic recovery, we are facing a very important new phenomenon, called K-shaped recovery. This is a topic that has been discussed more recently in the macroeconomic field.</p><p>In the past, the economic recovery generally had U-shaped recovery and V-shaped recovery, that is, under the background of economic recovery, the situation of most people has improved, the overall income has improved, and the employment has improved.</p><p>The K-shaped recovery means that some people are improving and some are deteriorating. Although the economy as a whole is recovering, the stock market and housing market are rising, and the prices of all kinds of assets are rising, the situation of some people, or even most people, is deteriorating.</p><p>Why did K-type resuscitation occur? That's to say back to global over-dependence on currencies.</p><p>I think<b>The global economy and macro policy have reached a crossroads.</b>I remember one year when Dario came to China to promote his new book, he asked four people to help him stand up, and I was one of them. He concluded by saying that the current income distribution gap in the United States is very similar to that before the Great Depression, which was a financial crisis, an economic crisis, a social crisis, a political crisis, and finally a military crisis-the outbreak of war.</p><p>According to this logic, the fundamental cause is not an economic problem, but a social problem, or an income distribution problem.</p><p>In fact, the world is facing similar challenges, because excessive dependence on money has led to a K-shaped recovery and a widening gap between wealth and income, which in turn has led to a series of trends of thought such as populism and anti-globalization.</p><p><b>MMT could be an innovation in monetary finance</b></p><p><b>But it may be a major step back in macroeconomic thinking</b></p><p>The history is very similar, and 100 years ago it was a similar sight. What should I do when I stand at this intersection? Economists want to give a solution. Now there are two factions in the whole field of economics. One faction is represented by China, which wants to return to the normalization of monetary policy, promote reform and improve total factor productivity.</p><p>The other faction is MMT, modern monetary theory. Simply put, its idea is that tax determines the issuance of currency. As long as there is no problem with national sovereignty, the issuance of currency can be unlimited, that is, there should be no upper limit on the government debt at all, and it can be circulated indefinitely through the issuance of government bonds, including the issuance of currency.</p><p>This is the modern monetary theory that everyone is talking about now, that is, it has really gone far on the road of releasing water to stimulate. My understanding of modern monetary theory is,<b>This may be an innovation in money and finance, but it may be a big step backwards in macroeconomic thinking.</b></p><p>But we are lucky that China did not choose this theory, so last year the mainstream public policy voice in China was critical of MMT.</p><p>When it comes to the perspective on large asset classes, the clues are pretty clear. As an old researcher who has been analyzing the macroeconomic situation for 20 years, I think we must return to the bottom logic in the end. The main logic of this year's economic situation is inflation expectation, which means that the varieties with low valuation and expected price increase must benefit this year.</p><p>Therefore, these are the things that have done better in the market recently. In the past two years, the high valuation has been killing the valuation because of the rise of interest rates. Finally, these basic logics are all established.</p><p><b>Sino-US trade friction is long-term and severe</b></p><p>Finally, let me tell you about the four major contradictions and countermeasures we are facing now.</p><p><b>The first major contradiction is undoubtedly the Sino-US trade friction, which is what we call a major change unseen in a century.</b></p><p>What is the nature of Sino-US trade friction?</p><p>After more than 40 years of China's reform and opening up, our current economic scale is 70% of that of the United States, and more importantly, we are still growing at a rate of 5~6%, which is 2~3 times that of the United States. According to this trend, around 2030, China's economic scale will surpass that of the United States and become the largest economy in the world.</p><p>For each of us Chinese, this means the day when the Chinese nation will return to the top of the world. Moreover, we are very lucky to catch up with the tide of the times, and we can see history. However, throughout the history of the world economy, in the past 100 years or so, since the United States surpassed Britain and became the world's largest economy, no one has surpassed him.</p><p>There have been two challengers, the former Soviet Union and Japan, both of whom have broken out in conflict with the United States, and not simply in the trade field, including geopolitical, ideological, financial and even military all-out confrontations.</p><p>China will become the world's largest economy again in 7 to 10 years. What will happen during this time? The answer is very clear,<b>The essence of trade friction between China and the United States is to contain the rise of emerging powers as a reigning hegemonic country. It has a long-term and severe nature. Our best response is to push forward a new round of reform and opening-up with greater courage and unswerving. In this regard, we should remain sober and calm and strategically determined.</b></p><p>But I also strongly agree with the call of an elder, Mr. Kissinger: For the sake of world peace and long-term prosperity, China and the United States must have more dialogue and exchanges, and both sides must make adjustments, because the whole governance landscape of the world has undergone profound changes.</p><p>From the perspective of the United States, in the next decade, the United States should adjust its mentality and accept a rising China that is integrated into globalization. China should also adjust its mentality. When we become stronger, we should assume global responsibilities accordingly and respect the global rules of the game.</p><p><b>New infrastructure in the future includes three major areas</b></p><p>The second major contradiction is innovation and development.</p><p>In the past, we achieved high growth by relying on demographic dividend, factor dividend, etc. In the future, we need innovation-driven development if we want high-quality development. In this respect, I advocate new infrastructure. In recent years, the new infrastructure I advocate has moved from academic discussion to national strategy. For a scholar, this is my greatest contribution.</p><p><b>In the short term, new infrastructure is conducive to expanding demand, steady growth and employment, and in the long term, it will help to cultivate China's new technologies,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300832\">New industries</a>And a new economy to build a new engine for China's economy.</b></p><p>In the past 40 years or so, China itself has been the beneficiary of large-scale advanced infrastructure construction. Why can't India seize the dividend of globalization but China does? A very important reason is infrastructure construction.</p><p><b>The new infrastructure in the future includes three major areas:</b></p><p><b>New infrastructure in the field of science and technology represented by 5G, big data center, artificial intelligence, new energy vehicles and charging piles;</b></p><p><b>New infrastructure in the field of people's livelihood represented by education and medical care;</b></p><p><b>As well as new infrastructure in institutional fields such as business environment, opening up of service industry, and construction of multi-level capital market.</b></p><p><b>China will face an aging population</b></p><p><b>This will be one of the biggest gray rhinos of the future</b></p><p><b>The third major contradiction is that China will face an accelerated population aging in the next 10 years, which will be one of the largest gray rhinos in China in the future.</b></p><p>In the past 2 or 30 years, people didn't have to care about the aging population at all, but in the next 10 years, it will be a big event. Because China's baby boom was from 1962 to 1976, we benefited from the demographic dividend of this baby boom. China's past high growth was achieved by this group of people when they were young, which just superimposed the globalization dividend.</p><p>But those born in 1962 are now 59 and will retire next year.</p><p>That's why extended retirement is being discussed in public policy, because without policy adjustments, people born during this baby boom in China will exit the labor market at an accelerated rate- -that's not the point of my talk.</p><p><b>The point is that China's aging is not coming slowly like Europe and the United States, because China has family planning, and China's population aging will come and accelerate in the next 5~10 years.</b></p><p>Therefore, the 14th Five-Year Plan, including this government work report, all proposed to raise the response to population aging to a national strategy, because we are still getting old before we get rich. Europe, America and Japan all began to age their populations after entering developed countries, and our per capita GDP just exceeded 10,000 US dollars, which ushered in an aging challenge. Therefore, I also call for the liberalization of childbearing.</p><p>From the perspective of the development trend, the speed and scale of China's population aging are unprecedented. In a deeply aging society in 2022 and a super-aging society in 2033, by 2060, one of the three people is over 65 years old, and there is also the problem of low birth.</p><p>What are the problems of an aging population?</p><p>The potential growth rate of China's economy will decline; Rising labor costs; Investment rate savings rate declined; Social dependency ratio and old-age burden increase; Both government debt and social security pressure will rise, and more importantly, the vitality of society will decline.</p><p>Therefore, in response to the challenges of population aging and low birth, we should liberalize reproductive rights as soon as possible, return reproductive rights to families, speed up the construction of a reproductive support system, and actively respond to the aging population and build an age-friendly society. This is a great challenge for us.</p><p><b>The fundamental problem of real estate is the mismatch between people and land and the excessive issuance of currency</b></p><p><b>The fourth main contradiction is our hardest bubble-real estate.</b></p><p>I originally mentioned that real estate depends on population in the long term, land in the medium term and finance in the short term. We have studied more than a dozen cases of real estate and housing systems representing economies in the past hundred years. The basic conclusion is that the housing system determines the real estate market, and the system is its gene, and the gene has a strong self-reproduction ability.</p><p>China's real estate has come to this day because at that time, our housing reform learned from Hong Kong, China, and Hong Kong, China learned from the United Kingdom-both economies have high housing prices.</p><p>Strictly speaking, Hong Kong's housing reform is a lesson, far from a successful experience. In the United States and Japan, their real estate policies are also unsuccessful, because the excessive issuance of currency has brought serious asset price bubbles and financial risks.</p><p>What countries have successful real estate reform? Germany and Singapore, they engage in leasing, including strong currency control.</p><p><b>Based on our research on international experience, we believe that the key to the long-term stable and healthy development of China's real estate is the linkage between people and land and financial stability. People are demand, land is supply, and finance is leverage.</b></p><p>Frankly, our knowledge and academic discussion of real estate is still a long way from actually solving the problem. The real estate chaos we have seen in the past one or two years is not unusual in our research framework.</p><p>The fundamental problem of China's real estate is the mismatch between people and land and the excessive issuance of currency in the past.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b56ae95a7634a2c80c80e346c17e78a6\" tg-width=\"591\" tg-height=\"435\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In the past, our idea of controlling big cities, developing small and medium-sized towns and balanced regional development with the thinking of planned economy was wrong. This idea led to the gathering of people in large metropolitan areas, but the land index was not supplied, which led to the mismatch between people and land, high housing prices in first-and second-tier cities and high inventory in third-and fourth-tier cities-this is completely solved.</p><p>Economically and technically, as a scholar, I can responsibly tell you,<b>There is still a solution to China's real estate to this day, and we still have the time window of the last ten years</b>But we have to solve the problem of cognition first. This is the main point of my report to you.</p><p><b>Taking the Seven Major Reforms as a Breakthrough Point</b></p><p><b>China will open a new cycle and a new development pattern</b></p><p>With the seven major reforms as a breakthrough in the future, we believe that China will open a new cycle and a new development pattern.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c27ea5fe7412ff498dda305649bad3b8\" tg-width=\"629\" tg-height=\"434\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The seven major reforms include —</p><p>The first is new infrastructure;</p><p>The second is the urbanization of metropolitan areas and urban agglomerations where people and land are linked and factors flow;</p><p>The third is to liberalize fertility;</p><p>The fourth is to open up the dual cycle of capital market and technological innovation;</p><p>The fifth is large-scale tax and fee reduction;</p><p>The sixth is to take the Sino-US trade friction as an opportunity to promote a new round of reform and opening up;</p><p>Seventh, establish our new nation-building strategy. What is the founding strategy? It is a similar strategy that we have benefited from in the past 40 years. Under the background of seeing the trends and trends of the world economy in the next few decades, we will formulate a strategy that will be beneficial to me in the long term. We are now in a period of strategic transformation.</p><p>These are the main points I will report to you today. We are undergoing great changes unseen in a century, and at the same time, we are ushering in great opportunities unseen in a century. We are convinced that with the implementation of a new round of reform and opening up and the release of future reform dividends, as a long-term optimist of China's economy and capital market, we believe that the best investment opportunity in the future will be in China. Thank you!</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2fe2ee4cce3bf07f1e485cf42ddcb0f7","relate_stocks":{},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1128854887","content_text":"“未来最好的投资机会就在中国，我们正站在新周期的起点上。因为过去10年，我们找到了中国问题的症结，并且因为前期的一些调整，具备了非常强大的执行力。”\n“从2019年以后，坦率地讲，我们还处在一个攻坚期，但是我们前期的很多改革的举措，进入到了红利的释放期。”\n“中国正在回归货币政策的正常化，但是因为欧美经济刚刚从低谷走出来，甚至还相当的脆弱，包括疫情仍然让人感到担忧，所以它对货币的放水和刺激仍然有很强烈的诉求。”\n“拜登这次对外讲，3万亿美元从哪里来，他会提高企业所得税和向富人征税。\n但事实上从经济宏观经济角度，这个逻辑是通不了的，3万亿美元是不太可能通过短期的征税来实现的。实质上这3万亿美元的基建刺激计划绝大部分是通过超发货币。”\n“为什么从去年以来，股市、房市、大宗商品，包括黄金都在涨，比特币也连创新高，根本的原因是我们迎来了美元流动性的泛滥。”\n“我们的基础原材料价格，包括铜、钢这些，最近涨得很厉害，因为它是全球定价的，中国的CPI涨的并不高，一是因为我们货币政策正常化，二是因为正好处于猪周期的下行区间，所以中国面临的主要的问题就是输入性通胀的压力。”\n“我对现代货币理论的理解是，这可能是货币金融的一次创新，但是可能是宏观经济思想的一次大的倒退。”\n“未来的新基建包括三大领域：\n5G、大数据中心、人工智能，新能源汽车、充电桩为代表的科技领域新基建；\n教育医疗为代表的民生领域新基建；\n以及营商环境，服务业开放，多层次资本市场建设等制度领域的新基建。”\n“中国在未来10年将会面临加速到来的人口老龄化，这将是未来中国内部最大的灰犀牛之一。”\n以上，是东吴证券首席经济学家任泽平，日前在东吴证券宏观策略报告会上，分享的最新精彩观点。\n这场策略会是任泽平加盟东吴证券后的首场亮相，任泽平分享了对于中国经济转型的看法，全球经济复苏、美元流动性泛滥对中国经济的影响，以及当下面临的四个主要矛盾和对策。\n聪明投资者整理了任泽平演讲全文，分享给大家。\n尊敬的各位来宾，女士们、先生们，非常高兴在最美的季节、最美的城市，和大家介绍一下我们对未来中国经济政策和市场的一些看法。\n对中国经济转型的前景我是比较乐观的\n我在2014年下海，提出过一些观点。作为一个中国经济的长期的观察者，这些年我也算是周游列国，先是在国务院做智囊，后来在全球最大的房地产企业做首席经济学家，这一次重新回到资本市场，回到券业，想给大家介绍一下我们对中国经济的一些思考和观察。\n过去这几年，我们每年都会提出一些看法和判断，很幸运，这些年大的判断基本还可以。\n\n比如说在2014年，我们提出叫新5%比旧8%好，5000点不是梦；在2015年，我们在股灾前预警，叫海拔已高风大慢走，并预测一线房价翻一倍，还有经济L型；在2017年提出新周期；2019年，当时市场非常悲观的时候，我们提出否极泰来和未来最好的投资机会就在中国。\n在2020年，我倡导新基建，后来从学术讨论走向国家战略。在去年下半年，我倡导放开生育，这一次关于我们的生育政策和人口政策，我认为在未来会出现比较大的调整。\n这些年我也一直在想，我们这一代学者的使命究竟是什么？我始终认为一个人的价值取决于对他人、对所服务的机构、以及社会的价值。\n在今年初，当市场充满争议的时候，我当时提，今年市场最大的逻辑或者主题应该是通胀预期。\n而且关于房地产领域，我提出过一个分析框架，叫房地产长期看人口，中期看土地，短期看金融。这个分析框架可能是房地产领域广为流传的，包括大的开发商、很多投资者、从业人员用的一个分析框架。\n总的来说，作为一名经济学家、中国经济的观察者，虽然比如在2015年市场比较疯狂的时候，我们理性地提示风险。但是在2014年以来，对中国经济转型的前景，我在经济学家里面是比较乐观的。\n很多人说任博士是中国经济和资本市场最大的多头。站在现在这样一个时点，我们看未来，究竟怎么来认清我们所处的时代，以及我们当前的经济形势。\n我想从一个客观、理性、专业、独立的角度，来给大家分享我们的一些观察和最新看法。\n新5%比旧8%好\n不要担心经济增速换挡\n最重要的是提高增长质量\n我大致讲三个方面的内容：第一个是关于中国中长期的经济发展趋势，第二个是关于我们当前的经济形势，最后讲中国现在面临的四大矛盾以及应对。\n第一个，中国经济的发展的趋势。\n我们处在一个什么样的大环境背景之下？怎么认清我们所处的这种环境和时代的特点？\n在过去10年，中国经济发生了一个非常明显的变化。\n过去这10多年，包括未来的10年，中国经济形势不是可以用经济波动来简单解释的。也就是在10年前，在宏观领域，所有主流经济学家都参与了一场大的论战。中国经济（增速）从14%、10%、9%、8%、7%，现在到6%，这种不断地下行是什么原因？我们怎么去应对？\n当时大致分为两派，一派是认为中国经济还能重回高增长，所以要进行大规模的刺激，刺激需求；另一派就是我们当时在国务院发展中心提出的，中国可能要增速换挡了，而且我们的出路是通过改革，提升我们的全要素生产率，构筑我们新的增长平台和动力的机制。\n这是10年前在宏观领域最大的一场论战。在那个背景下，当时我下海提出一个观点叫新5%比旧8%好。\n\n我是花了好长一段时间研究经济史，包括拉美、东南亚落入中等收入陷阱的这些经济体，以及转型成功的德、日、韩、中国台湾等等。\n我们发现，在从发展中国家迈向发达国家的关键时点上，中国人均GDP一万美元露头，12,600我们就成发达国家了，也就是未来5~10年。\n但是很多经济体拒绝增速换挡，试图通过货币对放水刺激，把它重新拉回到高增长的平台上，结果是维持了旧的增长模式，并引发了大的金融危机，最终掉入所谓中等收入陷阱。\n拉美、很多东南亚的经济体都犯过这样严重的错误，只有少数的，大约只占10%左右的经济体，德、日、韩、中国台湾，它们成功推动了改革，在从发展中经济体迈向发达经济体门槛的时候，采取了推动改革的方式。\n在那个时候我们就提出增速换挡，一定要推动新能源的改革，而不是一个简单的货币刺激，能够解决这个时代给我们的命题。\n我当时提出叫新5%比旧8%好的原因是什么？就是大家不要担心经济增速换挡了，最重要的是提高你的增长质量。\n未来通过改革构筑的5%的新增长平台，比过去靠自己勉强维持的8%的旧增长平台要好，利率下来了，股市走牛了，产业升级了、企业利润上升了，居民生活改善了，政府威信提高了，改革是唯一的出路，刺激将酝酿危机。\n经济L型也是我提的，新常态，从高速增长转向高质量发展，中央的这些大论断，印证了我们这一派经济学家所主张的观点。\n为什么在经济学家里面，我们看好中国经济这一轮的改革转型前景，首先是因为在过去10年，我们这场宏观领域的大论战，我就解决了一个很重要的问题，就是认识问题，认识到了我们要增速换挡，而且认识到了以后，叫新5%比旧8%好，未来虽然不是高速增长，但是是高质量的发展。\n我们解决了认识问题以后，这些年我们的政策和改革措施是到位的。我当时为了研究像当年韩国、日本包括德国的转型经验，前前后后看的专著将近上百本，当时非常沉迷于这个研究。\n最好的教科书实际上是经济史，因为经济学做不了实验，但是经济史给我们很大的启发。\n我们还处在一个攻坚期\n但前期的很多改革举措\n进入到了红利的释放期\n很多人说每年我们的政策都发明一个新词，这是对中国缺乏足够的观察和状态。\n事实上这些表述恰恰是我们对中国当前问题的认识，以及应对措施不断深化的结果。作为一线的经济学家，我是非常有感触的。\n中国的这一轮改革分为三个阶段，第一个阶段是改革预期形成的过程；第二个阶段是落地攻坚的阵痛期；第三个阶段是红利的释放期。\n第一个阶段是改革预期形成和争议的时期，大致是2012年到2015年，落地攻坚以及攻坚的阵痛期，是2016、2017、2018年，那时候整个社会，包括我们资本市场弥漫着非常悲观的气氛，什么离场论、洗洗睡，那是因为我们处在一个阵痛期。\n事实上从2019年以后，坦率地讲，我们还处在一个攻坚期，但是我们前期的很多改革的举措，进入到了红利的释放期。\n一个比较大的转折实际上是在2015年底，中央提出供给侧结构性改革，这个是非常有转折性意义的。\n当时我们提出“三去一降一补”，去产能、去库存、去杠杆、降成本、补短板。简单来讲，经济学讲叫“破旧立新”，我们要把过去高增长积累下来的过剩产能，过多的库存以及金融杠杆的风险给它破掉。\n在过去的这些年，我们面对中美贸易摩擦，面对疫情，中国没有出现大的金融风险，因为我们提前扎好了风险的篱笆，是提前做好了准备的。\n降成本、补短板，这就是立新。我们培育自己新的经济，新的技术、新的产业。后来到了三大攻坚战，包括双循环，都是我们在不断深化改革，应对新5%比旧8%好、高质量发展的挑战。\n事实上，比如说推动注册制改革，建设多层次资本市场，依靠创新推动实体经济的高质量发展，它是逻辑自洽的。\n创新发展，最后要依靠资本市场，传统依赖银行主导的这种融资模式，比较匹配我们原来重化工业的时代，未来中国大量的风投、新经济，它需要多层次资本市场。\n这一次资本市场上升到了很重要的位置，包括像注册制改革、反垄断，这些东西都是逻辑自洽的，包括碳达峰、碳中和、高水平的对外开放等等，我不再赘述。\n总的结论就是，未来最好的投资机会就在中国，我们正站在新周期的起点上。因为过去10年，我们找到了中国问题的症结，并且因为前期的一些调整，具备了非常强大的执行力。\n这就是我们所处的环境背景。\n2021年我们会面对全球经济复苏的共振\n现在给大家报告一下我们当前的经济形势。\n毫无疑问，中国在抗击疫情和恢复生产方面，走在了全球的前面。\n我们去年4个季度的GDP增速分别是-6.8%，3.2%，4.9%和6.5%，6.5%是什么概念呢？2019年中国GDP增速是6.1%，在去年四季度，中国已经回到了潜在增长率水平。\n而且在全球的主要经济体当中，去年中国是唯一实现正增长的。\n所以从2019年以后，我们已经开始享受改革红利了，但是并不意味着改革的任务完成，我们后面还面临很多的挑战，但是大的思路扭转过来了。\n2021年一个很重要的特点就是，我们会面对全球经济复苏的共振。\n去年二季度，中国经济复苏，今年随着美国、欧洲、日本疫苗的大规模接种，以及拜登要推出一个高达3万亿美元的基建刺激计划，我们可能会迎来全球的复苏共振。\n3万亿美元是什么概念？我们2009年4万亿刺激，3万亿美元，那是将近20万亿人民币的基建刺激计划。\n中国正在回归货币政策正常化\n欧美对货币放水和刺激仍然有很强诉求\n因为中国、美国、欧洲复苏的周期阶段不一样，中国是率先复苏，美国欧洲在今年才开始进入复苏阶段。这样大家的政策组合和诉求也不一样。\n中国正在迎来广义流动性的周期性拐点，因为随着通胀预期的上升，经济回归潜在增长率水平，我们开始进行货币政策正常化的操作，以及在房地产和地方债等领域进行结构性的信用政策收紧。\n我在今年初提出中国正迎来流动性的拐点，当时大家很argue这个观点，最近也验证了这个判断。\n中国正在回归货币政策的正常化，但是因为欧美经济刚刚从低谷走出来，甚至还相当的脆弱，包括疫情仍然让人感到担忧，所以它对货币的放水和刺激仍然有很强烈的诉求。\n所以欧美包括中国这一轮的全球经济复苏，它的轨道是不一样的，导致了政策的诉求不一样。我们开始货币政策正常化了，欧美可能还在一个低利率、放水刺激的阶段，这就带来了全球通胀预期。\n如果说2021年我们要定一个短期宏观经济形式的主题词，或最大的一个特点，就是通胀预期。\n我们迎来了通胀预期，包括全球经济复苏的共振，包括拜登要重振美国，推出了3万亿美元基建刺激计划，以及美元流动性的泛滥。\n美元流动性泛滥\n中国面临输入性通胀的压力\n为什么最后讲美元流动性泛滥呢？\n拜登这次对外讲，3万亿美元从哪里来，他会提高企业所得税和向富人征税。\n但事实上从经济宏观经济角度，这个逻辑是通不了的，3万亿美元是不太可能通过短期的征税来实现的。实质上这3万亿美元的基建刺激计划绝大部分是通过超发货币。\n这就是为什么我要给大家重点讲的一个问题。\n这一次的全球的通胀，很多人讲是因为需求恢复了，需求的恢复程度远远支撑不了如此高的通胀，包括广义资产价格的泡沫化。\n现在欧美经济还在地板上趴着，刚刚露出复苏的苗头，美国的股市连创新高，两大海岸线的房价连创新高，什么原因？货币的超发、美元流动性的泛滥。\n自从去年疫情以来，美国推出QE、QQE、无上限的QE，通过印钞票买美国的国债，甚至买商票。\n大家看黄色的线，这条黄色线是美国M2增速，就是美国的广义货币供应增速。这是20年来最高值，而且是惊人的高。\n后面我会给大家讲，整个宏观经济学领域面临的一个困境和变局，要么你就在放水的这条路上一路走下去，全球63%的外汇储备是美元，美国超发美元实际上相当于它把成本向全世界进行了分担，但是我们不行。\n因为我们是非储备货币国家，中国的货币如果超发实际上是被居民分担了，或者居民的现金流资产被稀释了。\n这就是为什么从去年以来，股市、房市、大宗商品，包括黄金都在涨，比特币也连创新高，根本的原因是我们迎来了美元流动性的泛滥，这就是我们面临的情况。\n黄金是实物货币，比特币是超主权货币，黄金和比特币的大涨，包括广义通胀的明显上涨，说明大家对以美元为代表的国家主权的信用货币的不信任。进而带来了今年通胀预期的明显抬升。\n通货膨胀的概念在经济学上颇具争议，但是它讲述了一个非常常识性的问题，通货膨胀在任何时间、任何地点都是货币现象，钞票印多了总有东西会涨，如果货币泛滥了，商品就会普涨。\n而中国在去年下半年以来，就开始推动货币政策的正常化，正如总理这次在两会讲的，我们去年没有超发货币，所以今年我们也没必要急转弯，而是贯彻货币政策的正常化，但是值得留意的是，因为大宗商品是全球定价的，所以中国虽然整体通胀不高，但是PPI、工业品价格在抬升。\n我们的基础原材料价格，包括铜、钢这些，最近涨得很厉害，因为它是全球定价的，中国的CPI涨的并不高，一是因为我们货币政策正常化，二是因为正好处于猪周期的下行区间，所以中国面临的主要的问题就是输入性通胀的压力。\n这一轮经济复苏是K型复苏\n全球经济和宏观政策已经走到了十字路口\n这一轮经济复苏，我们面临一个很重要的新现象，叫K型复苏。这是最近宏观经济领域大家讨论比较多的一个话题。\n以前经济复苏一般有u型复苏、v型复苏，就是在经济复苏的背景下，大部分人的境况改善了，整体收入改善，就业改善。\n而K型复苏则是一部分人改善，一部分人变差了，虽然经济整体是复苏的，股市房市都在涨，各种资产价格都在涨，但是一部分人，甚至大部分人的境况反而是变差的。\n为什么出现了K型复苏的现象呢？那就要说回到全球对货币的过度依赖。\n我认为全球经济和宏观政策，已经走到十字路口了。我记得有一年达里奥来中国推销他的新书，他找了4个人帮他站台，我是其中一位。他最后讲到美国现在的收入分配的差距和大萧条前很相似，当年的大萧条是金融危机、经济危机、社会危机、政治危机，到最后军事危机——爆发了战争。\n按照这个逻辑讲，它根本的原因不是经济问题，而是社会问题，或者说是收入分配问题。\n其实全球都面临类似的挑战，因为对货币的过度依赖导致了K型复苏以及财富收入差距拉大，进而导致了民粹主义、逆全球化等等这一系列思潮。\nMMT可能是货币金融的一次创新\n但可能是宏观经济思想的一次大倒退\n历史非常相似，100年前也是类似的景象。站在这个十字路口该怎么办？经济学家要给出解决方案，现在整个经济学领域有两派，一派是以中国为代表，要回归货币政策正常化，推动改革，提升全要素生产率。\n另一派就是MMT，现代货币理论。简单来讲，它的理念就是税收确定货币的发行。只要国家主权没有问题，货币的发行可以无上限，也就是政府的债务就根本不应该存在上限，可以通过政府的发债，包括通过货币的发行无限循环下去。\n这就是现在大家都在讲的现代货币理论，那就是真的是在放水刺激的路上走远了，我对现代货币理论的理解是，这可能是货币金融的一次创新，但是可能是宏观经济思想的一次大的倒退。\n但是我们很幸运，中国没有选择这条理论，所以去年中国主流的公共政策的声音是批判MMT的。\n谈到对大类资产的观点，线索是非常清楚的。作为一个做了20年宏观经济形势分析的老研究员，我觉得最后一定要回归到最底层的逻辑。今年经济形势的主要逻辑就是通胀预期，这意味着今年受益的一定是低估值和有着涨价预期的品种。\n所以最近市场走得比较好的都是这些，过去两年高估值的，因为利率的上升，都在杀估值，最后这些基本的逻辑都是成立的。\n中美贸易摩擦具有长期性和严峻性\n最后给大家讲讲我们现在面临的四大矛盾以及对策。\n第一大矛盾毫无疑问是中美贸易摩擦，这是我们所谓的百年未有之大变局。\n中美贸易摩擦的本质是什么？\n中国改革开放40多年，我们现在的经济规模已经是美国的70%了，而且更重要的是我们还在以5~6%的速度在增长，我们是美国潜在增长率的2~3倍，按照这样的趋势下去，大约在2030年前后，中国经济规模将会超过美国，成为世界第一大经济体。\n这对我们每个中国人来说，这意味着中华民族重回世界之巅的一天。而且我们很幸运的赶上了时代的大潮，我们可以见到历史，但是纵观世界经济史，在过去的100多年前，自从美国超过英国，成为世界第一大经济体以后，就没有人超过他。\n先后有两个挑战者，前苏联和日本，他们都和美国爆发了冲突，而且不简单是贸易领域的，包括地缘政治、意识形态，包括金融领域甚至军事的全面对抗。\n中国还有7~10年就会重新成为世界第一大经济体，这段时间会发生什么？答案是非常清楚的，中美贸易摩擦的本质是在位霸权国家，遏制新兴大国的崛起，它具有长期性和严峻性。我们最好的应对是以更大的勇气推动新一轮改革开放，坚定不移。对此我们要保持清醒冷静和战略定力。\n但是我也非常赞同一位长者，基辛格先生的呼吁：为了世界的和平和长期的繁荣，中美一定要多对话、多交流，双方都要做出调整，因为世界的整个治理版图发生了深刻的变革。\n从美国的角度，在未来十年美国要调整心态，接受一个日益崛起的融入全球化的中国。中国也要调整心态，当我们强大以后，我们要相应的承担全球的责任，并且尊重全球的游戏规则。\n未来的新基建包括三大领域\n第二大矛盾是创新发展。\n我们过去依靠人口红利、要素红利等等实现了高增长，未来我们要高质量发展就需要创新驱动。这方面我比较倡导新基建，这些年，我倡导的新基建从学术讨论走向了国家战略。对于一名学者而言，这是我最大的贡献。\n新基建短期有利于扩大需求，稳增长、稳就业，长期有助于培育中国的新技术、新产业和新经济，打造中国经济的新引擎。\n过去40多年，中国本身就是大规模超前基础设施建设的受益者，为什么印度抓不住全球化红利而中国抓住了？很重要原因就是基础设施建设。\n未来的新基建包括三大领域：\n5G、大数据中心、人工智能，新能源汽车、充电桩为代表的科技领域新基建；\n教育医疗为代表的民生领域新基建；\n以及营商环境，服务业开放，多层次资本市场建设等制度领域的新基建。\n中国将面临人口老龄化\n这将是未来最大的灰犀牛之一\n第三个主要矛盾就是中国在未来10年将会面临加速到来的人口老龄化，这将是未来中国内部最大的灰犀牛之一。\n过去2、30年大家根本不用关心人口老龄化的问题，但是在未来10年，这是一件大事。因为中国的婴儿潮是1962~1976年，我们受益于这个婴儿潮的人口红利，中国过去的高增长就是这一批人年轻时候干出来的，正好叠加了全球化红利。\n但是1962年出生的这批人现在59岁了，明年就退休了。\n这就是为什么公共政策领域在讨论延长退休，因为如果不做政策的调整，未来中国的这波婴儿潮期间出生的人将加速退出劳动力市场——这还不是我讲的重点。\n重点是中国的老龄化不是像欧美这样慢慢到来的，因为中国有计划生育，中国的人口老龄化将在未来5~10年扑面而来、加速到来。\n所以十四五，包括这次政府工作报告都提出，把应对人口老龄化上升到国家战略，因为我们还处于未富先老，欧美和日本都是进入发达国家之后才开始人口老龄化，而我们人均GDP刚过1万美元，就迎来了一个老龄化的挑战，所以我也呼吁放开生育。\n从发展的趋势来看，中国人口老龄化的速度和规模前所未有。2022年深度老龄化社会，2033年超级老龄化社会，到2060年，三个人中有一个是65岁以上的老人，同时还有少子化的问题。\n人口老龄化会带来哪些问题？\n中国经济潜在增长率将会下降；劳动力成本上升；投资率储蓄率下降；社会抚养比和养老负担加重；政府的债务和社会保障的压力都会上升，更重要的是社会的活力将会下降。\n所以应对人口老龄化和少子化的挑战，要尽快放开生育，让生育权回归家庭，加快构筑生育支撑体系，同时积极应对人口老龄化，建设一个老年友好型的社会，这是我们面临一个很大的挑战。\n房地产的根本问题是人地错配和货币超发\n第四个主要矛盾，就是我们最坚硬的泡沫——房地产。\n我原来提到，房地产长期看人口，中期看土地，短期看金融。我们研究了过去上百年，十几个代表经济体的房地产以及住房制度的案例，基本结论是住房制度决定房地产市场，制度是它的基因，而基因有着很强大的自我繁殖能力。\n中国的房地产走到今天，就是因为当时我们的住房改革学习的是中国香港，而中国香港学习的又是英国——这两个经济体都是高房价。\n严格来讲香港的住房改革是教训，远远谈不上是成功的经验。而美国、日本，他们的房地产政策也是不成功的，因为货币的超发带来了严重的资产价格的泡沫以及金融风险。\n房地产改革搞成功的国家有哪些呢？德国和新加坡，他们搞租赁，包括对货币强有力的控制。\n根据我们对国际经验的研究，我们认为中国房地产长期平稳健康发展的关键是人地挂钩和金融稳定。人是需求，土地是供给，金融是杠杆。\n坦率地说，我们对房地产的认识和学术讨论距离真正解决问题还有很大的差距。我们在过去这一两年看到的房产乱象，放在我们的研究框架里面一点都不稀奇。\n中国房地产的根本问题就是人地错配和货币过去的一度超发。\n\n过去我们以计划经济的思维，控制大城市，发展中小城镇，区域均衡发展的思路是错的，这种思路导致了人往大的都市圈集聚，但是土地指标没有供过来，导致了人地错配和一二线城市高房价、三四线高库存——这个是完全有解的。\n从经济学上从技术上，作为一个学者，我可以负责任给大家讲，中国房地产走到今天还有解，我们还有最后十年的时间窗口，但是我们要先解决认识问题，这是我给大家报告的主要观点。\n以七大改革为突破口\n中国将开启新周期、新发展格局\n未来以七大改革为突破口，我们认为中国将会开启新周期、新发展格局。\n\n七大改革包括——\n第一是新基建；\n第二是人地挂钩，要素流动的都市圈、城市群的城市化；\n第三是放开生育；\n第四是打通资本市场与科技创新的双循环；\n第五是大规模的减税降费；\n第六是以中美贸易摩擦为契机，推动新一轮的改革开放；\n第七，确立我们新的立国战略。什么叫立国战略？就是我们过去40年所受益的类似韬光养晦战略，在看清未来几十年世界经济的潮流和趋势的背景下，制定一种对我长期有利的战略，我们现在处在一个战略的转型期。\n以上是今天我给大家报告的主要观点，我们正处在百年未有之大变局，同时我们也迎来了百年未有之大机遇。我们深信，随着新的一轮的改革开放落地攻坚，以及未来改革红利的释放，作为中国经济和资本市场的长期的乐观主义者，我们认为未来最好的投资机会就在中国，谢谢！","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":793,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}
