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Ikhas

Ikhas

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2021-08-21

call+put

@老鲁随笔:爆賺36倍！美股期權Vertical Spread組合詳解

2021-08-14

go

Palantir (PLTR.US) Solid Q2 Results, Wall Street Remains Doubtful About Growth Sustainability

2021-04-20

elasticity

The alarm goes off! The bull market in U.S. stocks is already cold at a high position?

2021-04-14

soaring bit

Coinbase Apocalypse: The Cryptocurrency American Dream Starting with Eleven Page PPT

2021-04-12

mega infrastructure

@爱上趋势股:美國“洪水四溢”，大基建勢在必行！

2021-04-06

bubble bang

Sorry, the original content has been removed

2021-04-06

rise of empire

46-year-old Microsoft: From Gates building empire to Nadella revival

2021-04-02

industry revolution

Sorry, the original content has been removed

2021-03-31

the sun also risesthe moonlight silvers again

Again, when April is sensitive every year, Hong Kong stocks face three major pressures

2021-03-30

infrastructure improvement hot

@爱上趋势股:美國“洪水四溢”，大基建勢在必行！

2021-03-27

hope so

Market Overview: Hong Kong A rises together! BlackRock Singing Long Chinese Market, Cow Will Come Back?

2021-03-27

hard to say far away to goahead

Is the Turkish crisis representative and are emerging markets really dangerous?

2021-03-27

infrastructure improvemnet by Joe

Sorry, the original content has been removed

2021-03-23

demystification

7 Myths About Bitcoin: Speculation? Wasting energy? Too volatile?

2021-01-19

666

@小虎AV:投資未來，投資科技的一次教科書式的專訪。$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 主要內容包括：1. 談新冠病毒：mRNA是醫學的未來2. 談戰略：主動併購不是特斯拉想要的3. 談競爭：特斯拉最厲害的對手或許來自中國（蔚來，比亞迪？）4. 談自動駕駛：我相信比人類駕駛更安全5. 談電池：鎳是最讓特斯拉頭疼的問題6. 談柏林工廠：效率和環境考量成爲選址原因7. 談個人財富：持股是給建火星城攢錢8. 談孩子：沒有人口過剩，人類應該生孩子9. 談成長：最有幫助的事情是閱讀（讀書吧，少年）10. 談AI：AI和人類或許會形成共生關係11. 談個人角色：我把自己定義成一名工程師（跟王傳福總一樣的口號）12. 談火星：兩三年後我可能會登陸火星13. 談興趣：喜歡電子音樂，還出了個人單曲還有一個非常科技、夢幻的開場和結尾。@全球視頻精選Premium的微博視頻

2021-01-08

biden blue

Sorry, the original content has been removed

2021-01-07

bt

@孟浩:比特幣大漲，帶來哪些投資機會？

2021-01-07

2020-2030

@扑克投资家:10年之內，美國買房中國買股

2021-01-05

sea ltd

@小虎周报:2020年牛股大放送：哪些股票仍然值得期待？

2021-01-03

tesla

What is the real confidence of Tesla's price reduction? — Software! Software! Software!

Go to Tiger App to see more news

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Spread組合詳解","htmlText":"近期實在是有點忙不開，內容更新的有點慢，還請各位海涵，收到不少朋友的諮詢，說老魯我之前講的內容太過於專業，很多知識點消化不掉，操作上更是不敢下手，目前大部分操作還是以買call和買put爲主，短期內做對了也會有大幾百的收益率，但長期整體算下來還是虧損居多。 其實這位朋友反映的問題也是大部分新手目前的情況，這個階段老魯我也經歷過，多半是沉醉於自己的一兩次成功交易，而忘記覆盤下歷史所有交易的勝率有多少，長期下來，多數人是跑贏不了市場的，最終賺的錢還得一分不少的吐出來。 過了新手這個階段纔會認識到自己的交易知識需要提高，然後就開始拼命學習技術指標、企業財務分析、宏觀經濟、期權交易策略等等，學了一圈後發現原來交易股票和期權需要做出很多邏輯上的判斷，有了自己的觀點才能定方向；而不是像以前看到大v推薦就買，一條利好消息就全倉衝進去，結果賠個低兒掉 講了這麼多，我想表達的是：做交易，更需要學習的是交易你的觀點和邏輯，而不是跟單。如果僅僅是爲了跟單，爲何不去跟ark基金木頭姐的公開持倉呢，官網每天都會公佈每日買賣情況，而且都是行業專家選股，怎麼着也比大V更專業吧。 其實稍有點交易經驗的投資者都知道，即使給了你結果，這作業你也抄不好，沒自己的交易觀點，跌了就慌，慌了就跑，跑了就漲，根本也拿不住。 好了，又絮絮叨叨講了這麼多，我們進入正題！ 經常做期權交易的朋友會遇到這樣的情況：做期權看漲就買call，看跌就買put，太複雜了自己也看不懂，得過且過差不多就可以了，大不了虧了就跑 我接觸的投資者多數還是停留在這種認知層面上的，不能否定這種思維是錯誤的，但我的觀點是：你只需要每天學習一點，就會變得比現在更加優秀，市場幾千只股票，沒有人可以賺到認知以外的錢，如果有，那一定是運氣，如果你一直有好的運氣，也不會來看我的內容。不過我始終相信，看過我所有內容的朋友，認知都是高於其投資者的。 好，今天咱就把上","listText":"近期實在是有點忙不開，內容更新的有點慢，還請各位海涵，收到不少朋友的諮詢，說老魯我之前講的內容太過於專業，很多知識點消化不掉，操作上更是不敢下手，目前大部分操作還是以買call和買put爲主，短期內做對了也會有大幾百的收益率，但長期整體算下來還是虧損居多。 其實這位朋友反映的問題也是大部分新手目前的情況，這個階段老魯我也經歷過，多半是沉醉於自己的一兩次成功交易，而忘記覆盤下歷史所有交易的勝率有多少，長期下來，多數人是跑贏不了市場的，最終賺的錢還得一分不少的吐出來。 過了新手這個階段纔會認識到自己的交易知識需要提高，然後就開始拼命學習技術指標、企業財務分析、宏觀經濟、期權交易策略等等，學了一圈後發現原來交易股票和期權需要做出很多邏輯上的判斷，有了自己的觀點才能定方向；而不是像以前看到大v推薦就買，一條利好消息就全倉衝進去，結果賠個低兒掉 講了這麼多，我想表達的是：做交易，更需要學習的是交易你的觀點和邏輯，而不是跟單。如果僅僅是爲了跟單，爲何不去跟ark基金木頭姐的公開持倉呢，官網每天都會公佈每日買賣情況，而且都是行業專家選股，怎麼着也比大V更專業吧。 其實稍有點交易經驗的投資者都知道，即使給了你結果，這作業你也抄不好，沒自己的交易觀點，跌了就慌，慌了就跑，跑了就漲，根本也拿不住。 好了，又絮絮叨叨講了這麼多，我們進入正題！ 經常做期權交易的朋友會遇到這樣的情況：做期權看漲就買call，看跌就買put，太複雜了自己也看不懂，得過且過差不多就可以了，大不了虧了就跑 我接觸的投資者多數還是停留在這種認知層面上的，不能否定這種思維是錯誤的，但我的觀點是：你只需要每天學習一點，就會變得比現在更加優秀，市場幾千只股票，沒有人可以賺到認知以外的錢，如果有，那一定是運氣，如果你一直有好的運氣，也不會來看我的內容。不過我始終相信，看過我所有內容的朋友，認知都是高於其投資者的。 好，今天咱就把上","text":"近期實在是有點忙不開，內容更新的有點慢，還請各位海涵，收到不少朋友的諮詢，說老魯我之前講的內容太過於專業，很多知識點消化不掉，操作上更是不敢下手，目前大部分操作還是以買call和買put爲主，短期內做對了也會有大幾百的收益率，但長期整體算下來還是虧損居多。 其實這位朋友反映的問題也是大部分新手目前的情況，這個階段老魯我也經歷過，多半是沉醉於自己的一兩次成功交易，而忘記覆盤下歷史所有交易的勝率有多少，長期下來，多數人是跑贏不了市場的，最終賺的錢還得一分不少的吐出來。 過了新手這個階段纔會認識到自己的交易知識需要提高，然後就開始拼命學習技術指標、企業財務分析、宏觀經濟、期權交易策略等等，學了一圈後發現原來交易股票和期權需要做出很多邏輯上的判斷，有了自己的觀點才能定方向；而不是像以前看到大v推薦就買，一條利好消息就全倉衝進去，結果賠個低兒掉 講了這麼多，我想表達的是：做交易，更需要學習的是交易你的觀點和邏輯，而不是跟單。如果僅僅是爲了跟單，爲何不去跟ark基金木頭姐的公開持倉呢，官網每天都會公佈每日買賣情況，而且都是行業專家選股，怎麼着也比大V更專業吧。 其實稍有點交易經驗的投資者都知道，即使給了你結果，這作業你也抄不好，沒自己的交易觀點，跌了就慌，慌了就跑，跑了就漲，根本也拿不住。 好了，又絮絮叨叨講了這麼多，我們進入正題！ 經常做期權交易的朋友會遇到這樣的情況：做期權看漲就買call，看跌就買put，太複雜了自己也看不懂，得過且過差不多就可以了，大不了虧了就跑 我接觸的投資者多數還是停留在這種認知層面上的，不能否定這種思維是錯誤的，但我的觀點是：你只需要每天學習一點，就會變得比現在更加優秀，市場幾千只股票，沒有人可以賺到認知以外的錢，如果有，那一定是運氣，如果你一直有好的運氣，也不會來看我的內容。不過我始終相信，看過我所有內容的朋友，認知都是高於其投資者的。 好，今天咱就把上","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c6a22078cb72fd73a48d6eb09c04e468","width":"688","height":"201"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6f78371d8574e283ad99261f2145f747","width":"554","height":"54"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/126a537f9a74b8d887a69eab2333de2a","width":"688","height":"636"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/831047902","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":36,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5231,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":897145092,"gmtCreate":1628902403616,"gmtModify":1676529888262,"author":{"id":"3557305548001793","authorId":"3557305548001793","name":"Ikhas","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a0fd7b69b3c00ecf9cc780ede0cf5943","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3557305548001793","idStr":"3557305548001793"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"go&nbsp;","listText":"go&nbsp;","text":"go","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/897145092","repostId":"2159216292","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2159216292","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1628853577,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2159216292?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-08-13 19:19","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Palantir (PLTR.US) Solid Q2 Results, Wall Street Remains Doubtful About Growth Sustainability","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2159216292","media":"智通财经网","summary":"智通财经APP获悉，Palantir于周四美股盘前公布了其2021财年二季度业绩。分析师表示，Palantir此前公布的二季度营收同比增长49%，非常亮眼，且该公司预计2021-2025年营收复合年增长率将达30%。分析师指出，该公司商业部门的业绩更为强劲，二季度净增20个新客户，且营收增长加速。Wolfe Research分析师Alex Zukin维持Palantir“与大盘持平”评级，目标价由20美元上调至25美元。","content":"<p><html><body><article>Zhitong Finance APP learned that Palantir (PLTR.US) announced its fiscal 2021 second quarter results on Thursday before the U.S. stock market belled. According to the financial report, the company's Q2 revenue was 376 million USD, a year-on-year increase of 49%; Net loss of $139 million, compared with $110 million in the same period last year; Basic and diluted loss per share was $0.07, compared to $0.17 in the prior year quarter. After the earnings report, many investment banks raised their target prices for the stock.</p><p>Here's an analysis of the stock's ratings from several investment banks:</p><p><strong>Jefferies analyst Brent Thill maintained a \"Buy\" rating on Palantir with a price target raised to $30 from $28.</strong>Analysts said that Palantir's previously reported second-quarter revenue growth of 49% year-on-year was very eye-catching, and the company expects the compound annual growth rate of revenue from 2021 to 2025 to reach 30%. Analysts believe the company will \"move into the next phase commercially\" and remain positive about the company's long-term opportunities and \"unique positioning to address the most mission-critical workloads.\"</p><p><strong><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a>Analyst Keith Weiss maintained an \"underweight\" rating on Palantir and raised his price target to $22 from $19.</strong>Analysts pointed out that the performance of the company's commercial division was stronger, with a net increase of 20 new customers in the second quarter and an accelerated revenue growth. But analysts are skeptical about the durability of the growth, as the company's customers who make strategic investments contribute heavily to its top line.</p><p><strong>Wolfe Research analyst Alex Zukin maintained a \"Market Flat\" rating on Palantir with a price target raised to $25 from $20.</strong>Analysts said the company reported a \"solid earnings report\", with total revenue in the second quarter exceeding the median estimate by 4.3% and bookings \"equally strong\"; But he's on the fence on the stock given the company's valuation and difficulties surrounding growth.</p><p></article></body></html></p>","source":"tencent","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Palantir (PLTR.US) Solid Q2 Results, Wall Street Remains Doubtful About Growth Sustainability</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPalantir (PLTR.US) Solid Q2 Results, Wall Street Remains Doubtful About Growth Sustainability\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">智通财经网</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-13 19:19</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><body><article>Zhitong Finance APP learned that Palantir (PLTR.US) announced its fiscal 2021 second quarter results on Thursday before the U.S. stock market belled. According to the financial report, the company's Q2 revenue was 376 million USD, a year-on-year increase of 49%; Net loss of $139 million, compared with $110 million in the same period last year; Basic and diluted loss per share was $0.07, compared to $0.17 in the prior year quarter. After the earnings report, many investment banks raised their target prices for the stock.</p><p>Here's an analysis of the stock's ratings from several investment banks:</p><p><strong>Jefferies analyst Brent Thill maintained a \"Buy\" rating on Palantir with a price target raised to $30 from $28.</strong>Analysts said that Palantir's previously reported second-quarter revenue growth of 49% year-on-year was very eye-catching, and the company expects the compound annual growth rate of revenue from 2021 to 2025 to reach 30%. Analysts believe the company will \"move into the next phase commercially\" and remain positive about the company's long-term opportunities and \"unique positioning to address the most mission-critical workloads.\"</p><p><strong><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a>Analyst Keith Weiss maintained an \"underweight\" rating on Palantir and raised his price target to $22 from $19.</strong>Analysts pointed out that the performance of the company's commercial division was stronger, with a net increase of 20 new customers in the second quarter and an accelerated revenue growth. But analysts are skeptical about the durability of the growth, as the company's customers who make strategic investments contribute heavily to its top line.</p><p><strong>Wolfe Research analyst Alex Zukin maintained a \"Market Flat\" rating on Palantir with a price target raised to $25 from $20.</strong>Analysts said the company reported a \"solid earnings report\", with total revenue in the second quarter exceeding the median estimate by 4.3% and bookings \"equally strong\"; But he's on the fence on the stock given the company's valuation and difficulties surrounding growth.</p><p></article></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN202108131922067c2dd2a1&s=b\">智通财经网</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c318bcd91a109139b7d70c76c30bb154","relate_stocks":{"PLTR":"Palantir Technologies Inc."},"source_url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN202108131922067c2dd2a1&s=b","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/9a95c1376e76363c1401fee7d3717173","article_id":"2159216292","content_text":"智通财经APP获悉，Palantir(PLTR.US)于周四美股盘前公布了其2021财年二季度业绩。财报显示，该公司Q2营收3.76亿美元，同比增长49%;净亏损1.39亿美元，上年同期为1.10亿美元;基本和摊薄每股亏损0.07美元，上年同期为0.17美元。财报公布后，不少投行上调了对该股的目标价。以下是几家投行对该股的评级分析：Jefferies分析师Brent Thill维持Palantir“买入”评级，目标价由28美元上调至30美元。分析师表示，Palantir此前公布的二季度营收同比增长49%，非常亮眼，且该公司预计2021-2025年营收复合年增长率将达30%。分析师认为，该公司将“在商业上进入下一阶段”，并仍对该公司的长期机遇和“解决最关键任务工作负载的独特定位”持积极态度。摩根士丹利分析师Keith Weiss维持Palantir“减持”评级，目标价由19美元上调至22美元。分析师指出，该公司商业部门的业绩更为强劲，二季度净增20个新客户，且营收增长加速。但分析师对增长的持久性表示怀疑，因为该公司进行战略投资的客户对其营收贡献巨大。Wolfe Research分析师Alex Zukin维持Palantir“与大盘持平”评级，目标价由20美元上调至25美元。分析师表示，该公司公布了“稳健的财报”，二季度总营收超过预期中值4.3%，且预订量“同样强劲”;但鉴于该公司的估值和围绕增长的困难，他对该股持观望态度。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"PLTR":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5154,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":373555685,"gmtCreate":1618874812547,"gmtModify":1704716090703,"author":{"id":"3557305548001793","authorId":"3557305548001793","name":"Ikhas","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a0fd7b69b3c00ecf9cc780ede0cf5943","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3557305548001793","idStr":"3557305548001793"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"elasticity","listText":"elasticity","text":"elasticity","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/373555685","repostId":"1147524572","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1147524572","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1618838733,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1147524572?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-04-19 21:25","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"The alarm goes off! The bull market in U.S. stocks is already cold at a high position?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1147524572","media":"腾讯美股  ","summary":"总而言之，投资者最好还是尊重一下历史，毕竟标普500指数市盈率攀升到30，且盈利见顶的情况，历史上只在二十年前和现在出现过。诚然，美股牛市可能还会继续一段时间，但是投资者不保持谨慎，不保持警惕，显然是","content":"<p>All in all, investors should respect history. After all, the P/E of the S&P 500 index climbed to 30 and earnings peaked only twenty years ago and now. It is true that the bull market in U.S. stocks may continue for some time, but it is obviously not advisable for investors to remain cautious and vigilant.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6f413590001cd843da7ab41f47554741\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"718\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Last Friday's trading day, inspired by full confidence in the prospect of economic recovery, the S&P 500 index once again set a new record for the historical closing point. This means that the US stock market has reached a delicate node-the P/E is extremely high, and the earnings per share has reached a historic high. This situation has happened twice in history, in September 2000 and now. At the closing point of 4185.47, the index has come above 30 relative to \"normal\" earnings (see later).</p><p>At first glance, the P/E of 30 doesn't seem too terrible. After all, in June last year, the most basic version of P/E, that is, P/E based on the GAAP net profit record of the past four quarters, once reached 31. At that time, the market was about 26% lower than it is now. By the end of the fourth quarter of last year, P/E once reached nearly 40. However, this number didn't bother the bulls at the time, and the fact is that the S&P 500 went into rave-party mode from then on.</p><p>The key is that in the context of the economy being deeply tortured by the epidemic, it has completely lost its meaning to measure whether the stock price is expensive or cheap by using the profits under the distortion. For example, from the fourth quarter of 2019 to the fourth quarter of 2020, one-third of corporate profits were wiped out, so various valuation indicators have soared to extremely high levels.</p><p>Obviously, as the pandemic crisis gradually becomes a thing of the past, corporate profits will rebound sharply from their lows. To judge whether today's stock price is in the range of expensive or low in the price spectrum, and then predict the future direction of the stock market accordingly, we must first get a key reference, \"normalized profit\". Specifically, it is the most likely profit for S&P when the recovery is finally implemented. Here, Q4 2019 earnings per share data can be used, which is $139.47 on an annualized basis.</p><p>There are two main reasons for selecting the 2019 data. First of all, profits in 2019 not only set a record in absolute height, but also were at a historically high level relative to the relative height of sales and other projects. This means that the difficulty of normalized profits that really appear in the future will be greatly increased if they want to exceed their level. Although Niupai may insist that a P/E of 30 is not a problem, because 2021 profits will even dwarf 2019.</p><p>Secondly, even under the strong economy in 2019, the earnings of each quarter have basically not changed much, which means that corporate profits have reached a very high level relative to fundamentals, so there is not much room for further growth in profits. Even now, Wall Street analysts, who have always been known for their super-optimism, are simply expecting second-quarter 2021 earnings per share to reach the same annualized $139 as fourth-quarter 2019. In short, a return to that peak is the most likely scenario in 2021 in terms of corporate profits.</p><p>Historically, the unemployment rate of the S&P 500 index exceeded 30, all of which occurred in the cycle of sharp decline or even collapse of profits, with the only exception being the present. For example, in the fourth quarter of 1999, when the peak of the dot-com bubble was approaching, the index P/E once reached 30.5, and at that time, earnings per share were at a historically high level, which was equivalent to releasing an alarm. Investors are, in fact, offering more than $30 for every dollar of earnings, which are at the end of their crossbow and hard to go further.</p><p>Although earnings per share held on for a while, hitting a new high of $53.70 in the third quarter of 2000, earnings per share never returned to that level for four full years. The record profits came as the S&P 500 also reached a near-record high of 1,518 on September 1, 2000. At that time, the index had risen 120% in the previous four years. In short, the best comparison with today is perhaps the period of 2000. After all, the S&P 500's earnings per share and points peaked at the same time, only twice.</p><p>Twenty years ago, on September 1, 2000, the traditional P/E of the S&P 500 was 26.75. To put that in perspective, today's P/E is 30, which is 12% higher than it was back in the day. However, P/E alone obviously can't reflect the panoramic view of the market. For example, if you take the fundamentals for reference, earnings per share in 2000 are actually higher than in 2021. From this point of view, P/E was substantially higher than it seems, because profits were destined to fall, while P/E is substantially lower than it seems, because profits will rise sharply.</p><p>Although the various factors that need to be taken into account are complex, positive and negative, on the whole, the corporate profit level in the fourth quarter of 2019 looks similar to that at the peak of the technology bubble, both at the high point in their respective relative cycles, and even the former is a little higher. For example, for the whole of 2019, the S&P 500 earnings totaled 5.4% of national income, one percentage point higher than the 4.4% in the four quarters ending September 2000. In terms of the ratio of operating profit to sales, the so-called operating profit margin, the figure reached 11.1% in 2019, which is 4 percentage points higher than in the cycle of two decades ago. However, the index did have a better return on equity two decades ago than it did in 2019, with 17.5% ahead of 15.5%.</p><p>Although not all, obviously, most indicators show that corporate profits in 2019 are relatively higher than those in 2000. Now, let's be conservative and assume that the two are at the same level. All in all, these are the only two periods in the history of U.S. stocks in which P/E reached a very high of around 30, and earnings reached a historic high. From this comparison, what clues can we get about the present and future of the S&P 500 index?</p><p>If investors have entered the market before, it is certainly good news for them that P/E has climbed all the way to 30 under the stock market boom. However, if investors are only ready to enter the market now, or are prepared to keep holding large U.S. stock indexes without cashing in on their gains, that is not good news for them. Regarding this, it couldn't be clearer to look at what happened after September 1, 2000. The S&P 500 entered a long downward path until it fell to 801 points on March 11, 2003, with a loss of 47% in the process. It is seven years later, in September 2007, that the index has returned to its level in September 2000.</p><p>As we all know, after that, due to the global financial crisis, there was another new downward channel waiting for the index. When it climbed to more than 1,500 points again, it was already March 2013. In other words, over a twelve-year cycle, the rate of return that the index can provide investors is a huge zero if Dividend returns are not counted.</p><p>Of course, it is impossible for anyone to accurately predict whether the U.S. stock market will suffer a tragedy similar to that after the burst of the Internet bubble. At present, Niupai expects that US stocks will enter a full-speed sailing mode driven by two favorable SF factors, namely, the fast-growing corporate profits will greatly exceed those of 2019, and the ultra-low interest rate will continue to be maintained in the next few years, providing continuous support.</p><p>Of course, neither of these possibilities could be completely ruled out, but objectively speaking, neither of them had a high probability. As for how much to benefit from both, the probability will be further reduced. First, let's look at corporate profits. As mentioned earlier, the peak profit in 2019 was already equivalent to 5.4% of national income, climbing to a historic high. If earnings are to grow faster than gross domestic product, as Wall Street expects, it means that the relative proportion of profits needs to be further improved, which is obviously hard to count on.</p><p>What's more, at the end of last week, the total market value of the S&P 500 had reached an eye-popping 161% of national income, nearly a quarter higher than 130% in 2000, and nearly double the average figure in the past two decades, which means that it will be more difficult to increase the profit proportion.</p><p>Now that wages have finally started to rise after years of stagnation, and the corporate tax rate is likely to increase significantly under the Biden administration, in this case, to keep profits above 160% of national income, it already needs to expand profits further, and it is too difficult to expect profits to expand and expand again.</p><p>As for interest rates, what Niupai is counting on is that in the next few years, the 10-year Treasury Bond yield will continue to rise at a slower rate than the growth rate of GDP. This is the premise of all expectations, but unfortunately, such things rarely happen in history. The truth is that the real interest rate adjusted for inflation normally rises at a pace that is in sync with economic growth \", and the cycles in which the real interest rate becomes negative are often extremely short.</p><p>The most reasonable interpretation of today's phenomenon that the yield rate is not even as good as the inflation rate can only be that it is only a historical exception, and it is a special phenomenon that occurs after the economy has suffered a severe epidemic hit once in many years.</p><p>All in all, it's best to respect history. After all, the P/E of the S&P 500 index climbed to 30, and profits peaked, which only happened twenty years ago and now. It is true that the bull market in U.S. stocks may continue for some time, but it is obviously not advisable for investors to remain cautious and vigilant.</p>","source":"txmg","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The alarm goes off! The bull market in U.S. stocks is already cold at a high position?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe alarm goes off! The bull market in U.S. stocks is already cold at a high position?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">腾讯美股  </strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-04-19 21:25</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>All in all, investors should respect history. After all, the P/E of the S&P 500 index climbed to 30 and earnings peaked only twenty years ago and now. It is true that the bull market in U.S. stocks may continue for some time, but it is obviously not advisable for investors to remain cautious and vigilant.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6f413590001cd843da7ab41f47554741\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"718\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Last Friday's trading day, inspired by full confidence in the prospect of economic recovery, the S&P 500 index once again set a new record for the historical closing point. This means that the US stock market has reached a delicate node-the P/E is extremely high, and the earnings per share has reached a historic high. This situation has happened twice in history, in September 2000 and now. At the closing point of 4185.47, the index has come above 30 relative to \"normal\" earnings (see later).</p><p>At first glance, the P/E of 30 doesn't seem too terrible. After all, in June last year, the most basic version of P/E, that is, P/E based on the GAAP net profit record of the past four quarters, once reached 31. At that time, the market was about 26% lower than it is now. By the end of the fourth quarter of last year, P/E once reached nearly 40. However, this number didn't bother the bulls at the time, and the fact is that the S&P 500 went into rave-party mode from then on.</p><p>The key is that in the context of the economy being deeply tortured by the epidemic, it has completely lost its meaning to measure whether the stock price is expensive or cheap by using the profits under the distortion. For example, from the fourth quarter of 2019 to the fourth quarter of 2020, one-third of corporate profits were wiped out, so various valuation indicators have soared to extremely high levels.</p><p>Obviously, as the pandemic crisis gradually becomes a thing of the past, corporate profits will rebound sharply from their lows. To judge whether today's stock price is in the range of expensive or low in the price spectrum, and then predict the future direction of the stock market accordingly, we must first get a key reference, \"normalized profit\". Specifically, it is the most likely profit for S&P when the recovery is finally implemented. Here, Q4 2019 earnings per share data can be used, which is $139.47 on an annualized basis.</p><p>There are two main reasons for selecting the 2019 data. First of all, profits in 2019 not only set a record in absolute height, but also were at a historically high level relative to the relative height of sales and other projects. This means that the difficulty of normalized profits that really appear in the future will be greatly increased if they want to exceed their level. Although Niupai may insist that a P/E of 30 is not a problem, because 2021 profits will even dwarf 2019.</p><p>Secondly, even under the strong economy in 2019, the earnings of each quarter have basically not changed much, which means that corporate profits have reached a very high level relative to fundamentals, so there is not much room for further growth in profits. Even now, Wall Street analysts, who have always been known for their super-optimism, are simply expecting second-quarter 2021 earnings per share to reach the same annualized $139 as fourth-quarter 2019. In short, a return to that peak is the most likely scenario in 2021 in terms of corporate profits.</p><p>Historically, the unemployment rate of the S&P 500 index exceeded 30, all of which occurred in the cycle of sharp decline or even collapse of profits, with the only exception being the present. For example, in the fourth quarter of 1999, when the peak of the dot-com bubble was approaching, the index P/E once reached 30.5, and at that time, earnings per share were at a historically high level, which was equivalent to releasing an alarm. Investors are, in fact, offering more than $30 for every dollar of earnings, which are at the end of their crossbow and hard to go further.</p><p>Although earnings per share held on for a while, hitting a new high of $53.70 in the third quarter of 2000, earnings per share never returned to that level for four full years. The record profits came as the S&P 500 also reached a near-record high of 1,518 on September 1, 2000. At that time, the index had risen 120% in the previous four years. In short, the best comparison with today is perhaps the period of 2000. After all, the S&P 500's earnings per share and points peaked at the same time, only twice.</p><p>Twenty years ago, on September 1, 2000, the traditional P/E of the S&P 500 was 26.75. To put that in perspective, today's P/E is 30, which is 12% higher than it was back in the day. However, P/E alone obviously can't reflect the panoramic view of the market. For example, if you take the fundamentals for reference, earnings per share in 2000 are actually higher than in 2021. From this point of view, P/E was substantially higher than it seems, because profits were destined to fall, while P/E is substantially lower than it seems, because profits will rise sharply.</p><p>Although the various factors that need to be taken into account are complex, positive and negative, on the whole, the corporate profit level in the fourth quarter of 2019 looks similar to that at the peak of the technology bubble, both at the high point in their respective relative cycles, and even the former is a little higher. For example, for the whole of 2019, the S&P 500 earnings totaled 5.4% of national income, one percentage point higher than the 4.4% in the four quarters ending September 2000. In terms of the ratio of operating profit to sales, the so-called operating profit margin, the figure reached 11.1% in 2019, which is 4 percentage points higher than in the cycle of two decades ago. However, the index did have a better return on equity two decades ago than it did in 2019, with 17.5% ahead of 15.5%.</p><p>Although not all, obviously, most indicators show that corporate profits in 2019 are relatively higher than those in 2000. Now, let's be conservative and assume that the two are at the same level. All in all, these are the only two periods in the history of U.S. stocks in which P/E reached a very high of around 30, and earnings reached a historic high. From this comparison, what clues can we get about the present and future of the S&P 500 index?</p><p>If investors have entered the market before, it is certainly good news for them that P/E has climbed all the way to 30 under the stock market boom. However, if investors are only ready to enter the market now, or are prepared to keep holding large U.S. stock indexes without cashing in on their gains, that is not good news for them. Regarding this, it couldn't be clearer to look at what happened after September 1, 2000. The S&P 500 entered a long downward path until it fell to 801 points on March 11, 2003, with a loss of 47% in the process. It is seven years later, in September 2007, that the index has returned to its level in September 2000.</p><p>As we all know, after that, due to the global financial crisis, there was another new downward channel waiting for the index. When it climbed to more than 1,500 points again, it was already March 2013. In other words, over a twelve-year cycle, the rate of return that the index can provide investors is a huge zero if Dividend returns are not counted.</p><p>Of course, it is impossible for anyone to accurately predict whether the U.S. stock market will suffer a tragedy similar to that after the burst of the Internet bubble. At present, Niupai expects that US stocks will enter a full-speed sailing mode driven by two favorable SF factors, namely, the fast-growing corporate profits will greatly exceed those of 2019, and the ultra-low interest rate will continue to be maintained in the next few years, providing continuous support.</p><p>Of course, neither of these possibilities could be completely ruled out, but objectively speaking, neither of them had a high probability. As for how much to benefit from both, the probability will be further reduced. First, let's look at corporate profits. As mentioned earlier, the peak profit in 2019 was already equivalent to 5.4% of national income, climbing to a historic high. If earnings are to grow faster than gross domestic product, as Wall Street expects, it means that the relative proportion of profits needs to be further improved, which is obviously hard to count on.</p><p>What's more, at the end of last week, the total market value of the S&P 500 had reached an eye-popping 161% of national income, nearly a quarter higher than 130% in 2000, and nearly double the average figure in the past two decades, which means that it will be more difficult to increase the profit proportion.</p><p>Now that wages have finally started to rise after years of stagnation, and the corporate tax rate is likely to increase significantly under the Biden administration, in this case, to keep profits above 160% of national income, it already needs to expand profits further, and it is too difficult to expect profits to expand and expand again.</p><p>As for interest rates, what Niupai is counting on is that in the next few years, the 10-year Treasury Bond yield will continue to rise at a slower rate than the growth rate of GDP. This is the premise of all expectations, but unfortunately, such things rarely happen in history. The truth is that the real interest rate adjusted for inflation normally rises at a pace that is in sync with economic growth \", and the cycles in which the real interest rate becomes negative are often extremely short.</p><p>The most reasonable interpretation of today's phenomenon that the yield rate is not even as good as the inflation rate can only be that it is only a historical exception, and it is a special phenomenon that occurs after the economy has suffered a severe epidemic hit once in many years.</p><p>All in all, it's best to respect history. After all, the P/E of the S&P 500 index climbed to 30, and profits peaked, which only happened twenty years ago and now. It is true that the bull market in U.S. stocks may continue for some time, but it is obviously not advisable for investors to remain cautious and vigilant.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/LXEEhQeYt9fCEoRvmAPN1g\">腾讯美股  </a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6f413590001cd843da7ab41f47554741","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/LXEEhQeYt9fCEoRvmAPN1g","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1147524572","content_text":"总而言之，投资者最好还是尊重一下历史，毕竟标普500指数市盈率攀升到30，且盈利见顶的情况，历史上只在二十年前和现在出现过。诚然，美股牛市可能还会继续一段时间，但是投资者不保持谨慎，不保持警惕，显然是不可取的。上周五的交易日当中，在对经济复苏前景的充分信心鼓舞下，标普500指数再度刷新历史收盘点位纪录。这也就意味着，美股市场已经来到一个微妙的节点——市盈率极端高企，每股盈利达到历史性高点，这样的情况史上一共就出现过两次，分别是2000年9月和现在。以4185.47点的收盘点位计算，指数相对于“正常”盈利（见后文）已经来到了30以上。第一眼看上去，30的市盈率似乎也没有多可怕，毕竟去年6月的时候，最基础版本的市盈率，即基于过去四个季度通用会计准则净盈利记录的市盈率，曾经一度达到31，而那时候，大盘的点位较之现在还要低大约26%。到了去年第四季度结束的时候，市盈率，更是一度曾经达到近40。然而，这一数字当时并没有让牛派受到任何困扰，事实就是，标普500指数从那时开始还进入了狂欢派对模式。关键在于，在经济受到疫情深度折磨的大背景下，用扭曲局面下的盈利去度量股票价格到底是昂贵还是低廉，这种做法已经彻底失掉了意义。比如，从2019年第四季度到2020年第四季度，企业盈利有三分之一灰飞烟灭，于是，各种估值指标都因此窜升到了极高的水平。显而易见，伴随疫情危机逐渐成为过去，企业利润将会从低点大幅反弹。想要判断当今的股价到底在价格光谱上处于昂贵还是低廉的区间，进而据此预测股市未来的走向，首先必须得到一个关键的参照物，“正常化利润”。具体而言就是，当复苏最终落实时，标普企业最可能获得的盈利。在这里，可以使用2019年第四季度的每股盈利数据，年化后为139.47美元。选用2019年的数据，主要有两个原因。首先，2019年的利润不但绝对高度创下了历史纪录，而且相对于销售额和其他项目的相对高度，也处在历史性的高水平。这也就意味着，未来真正出现的正常化利润想要超越其水平，难度将大幅提高。尽管牛派可能会坚持说，30的市盈率不成其为问题，因为2021年的利润甚至会让2019年相形见绌。其次，哪怕是在2019年的强势经济之下，每个季度的盈利也基本上没有多大的变化，这就意味着企业利润相对于基本面已经达到了很高的水平，因此盈利已经没有多少进一步增长的空间了。哪怕现在，素来都以超级乐观闻名的华尔街分析师们，整体而言，也不过是预计2021年第二季度的每股盈利年化将达到与2019年第四季度持平的139美元。简而言之，就企业利润而言，重归那个峰值是2021年最可能发生的一幕。历史角度看来，标普500指数失业率超过30，都是发生在盈利大幅下滑，甚至崩溃的周期当中，唯一一个例外就是当下。比如，1999年第四季度，互联网泡沫峰值将至时，指数市盈率曾经达到30.5，而当时，每股盈利又处在历史性的高水平，这就等于释放出了一个警报。投资者事实上就是在为每1美元的盈利开出超过30美元的价格，而这盈利已经是强弩之末，很难再进一步了。虽然每股盈利后来又坚持了一阵子，至2000年第三季度再创新高，达到了53.70美元，但是之后整整四年时间里，每股盈利都再未能回到那个水平。创纪录的利润出现时，标普500指数也在2000年9月1日达到了接近最高纪录的1518点。当时，指数在之前四年当中累计上涨了120%。总之，最适合拿来和当今对比的，也许正是2000年的那段时间。毕竟，标普500指数每股盈利和点位同时达到峰值，只有这么两次。二十年前的2000年9月1日，标普500指数的传统市盈率为26.75。从这个角度来看，今天的市盈率为30，比当初还要高出12%。不过，单单市盈率显然无法体现市场的全景。比如说，如果将基本面拿来参照，则2000年的每股盈利其实要比2021年还要高。从这个角度说，当时的市盈率实质上要比看上去更高，因为利润注定将要走低，而现在的市盈率实质上则比看上去要更低，因为利润水平将会大幅上扬。虽然需要纳入考虑的各种因素错综复杂，积极与消极互见，但是整体而言，企业利润水平2019年第四季度看上去和科技泡沫巅峰时差不多，都是处于各自相对的周期内的高点，甚至前者还要更高一点。比如，2019年全年，标普500指数盈利合计相当于国民收入的5.4%，比起截至2000年9月的四个季度的4.4%还要高出一个百分点。从营业利润相对于销售额的比例，即所谓营业利润率来看，2019年的数字达到了11.1%，比起二十年前的周期更高出4个百分点。不过，二十年前指数的股本回报率确实要好于2019年，以17.5%领先于15.5%。虽然不是所有，但是显然，大多数指标都显示，2019年的企业利润要相对高于2000年，现在姑且保守一点，就假定两者是在同一水平线上。总而言之，这是美股历史上仅有的两段市盈率达到很高的30上下，同时盈利达到历史性高点的周期。从这比较当中，能够得到关于标普500指数当下和未来的怎样的线索呢？如果投资者是之前就已经入场，那么股市大繁荣之下，市盈率一路攀升到30，对于他们而言当然是好消息。不过，如果投资者是现在才准备入场，或者准备不兑现利得，继续持有美国大型股票指数，那对于他们而言，这可就不是什么好消息了。关于这一点，看看2000年9月1日之后发生了什么，就再清楚不过了。标普500指数进入了漫长的下滑通道，直至2003年3月11日跌至801点，过程当中损失幅度达到47%。指数重新回到2000年9月的水平，已经是七年之后，即2007年9月的事情了。众所周知，在那之后，由于全球金融危机的缘故，等待着指数的是又一条新的下滑通道，等到再度攀升到1500点以上，已经是2013年的3月了。换言之，在一段长达十二年的周期之内，如果不计算股息收益的话，指数能够为投资者提供的回报率就是一个巨大的零蛋。当然，美股未来是否会遭遇类似于当年互联网泡沫破灭之后那种暴跌的惨剧，是谁也不可能准确预测到的。目前，牛派的预期是，两大有利的顺丰因素驱动下，美股将进入全速航行模式，这两者即，快速增长的企业利润将大幅超越2019年，以及超低利率在未来几年还将继续保持，不断提供支持。这两个可能性当然都不能完全排除，但是客观而言，又都不是很大概率的事情。至于要从两者当中得到多大好处，则概率还会进一步降低。首先来看看企业利润。如前所述，2019年的峰值利润已经相当于国民收入的5.4%，攀上历史性的高点了。盈利要像华尔街所预计的那样，增速超过国内生产总值，就意味着利润的相对比例还需要进一步提升，这显然很难指望。更何况，上周结束时，标普500强的总市值相对于国民收入的比例已经达到了令人瞠目结舌的161%，比2000年时 的130%还要高出近四分之一，较之过去二十年的平均数字更是高出近一倍，这就意味着，利润占比想要提升，难度还将进一步增大。现在，工资在停滞多年后终于开始上涨，而企业税率很可能在拜登政府任内大幅度提升，在这种情况下，盈利要保持高过国民收入160%的水平，就已经需要利润进一步扩张了，指望利润扩张再扩张，这任务未免太过艰难。至于利率方面，牛派所指望的是，未来几年当中，十年期国债收益率的上涨速度将持续低于国内生产总值的增长速度，这是一切预期的前提，但遗憾的是，这样的事情在历史上极少发生。事实是，根据通货膨胀调整后的真实利率在正常情况下，其上涨速度是与经济增长同步的\"，而真实利率变成负数的周期，往往都极为短暂。今天收益率甚至不及通货膨胀率的现象，最合理的解读只能是，这只是一个历史的例外，是一种经济遭受多少年都仅此一次的严重疫情打击后，出现的特殊现象。总而言之，大家最好还是尊重一下历史，毕竟标普500指数市盈率攀升到30，且盈利见顶的情况，历史上只在二十年前和现在出现过。诚然，美股牛市可能还会继续一段时间，但是投资者不保持谨慎，不保持警惕，显然是不可取的。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4471,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":344038291,"gmtCreate":1618359355413,"gmtModify":1704709572707,"author":{"id":"3557305548001793","authorId":"3557305548001793","name":"Ikhas","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a0fd7b69b3c00ecf9cc780ede0cf5943","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3557305548001793","idStr":"3557305548001793"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"soaring bit","listText":"soaring bit","text":"soaring bit","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/344038291","repostId":"2127015413","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2127015413","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1618311061,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2127015413?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-04-13 18:51","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Coinbase Apocalypse: The Cryptocurrency American Dream Starting with Eleven Page PPT","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2127015413","media":"深潮TechFlow","summary":"历史一刻即将来临，Coinbase将于周三（14日）在美国纳斯达克上市（代码COIN），成为加密货币世界的里程碑。彭博社消息，Coinbase估值或高达约1000亿美元，这一数值超过纳斯达克交易所加纽","content":"<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d202e56fe292c12f1ec756eff7095093\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"565\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">A moment in history is approaching when Coinbase will become a milestone in the cryptocurrency world by listing on the US NASDAQ (symbol COIN) on Wednesday (14th).</p><p>Bloomberg news,<b>Coinbase's valuation may be as high as about $100 billion, which is more than the combined market capitalization of the parent company on the Nasdaq and New York Stock Exchange.</b></p><p>Coinbase, founded in 2012, does not have many legends of barbaric growth. If the global cryptocurrency exchange is compared to a classroom, then Coinbase is a typical \"obedient student\": its early grades are average, there are many exchanges with larger trading volume than Coinbase, and there are too many exchanges that are more innovative than Coinbase to mention, but Coinbase is honest and obedient, and it is deeply liked by teachers.</p><p>Finally, it happened that Coinbase came to the center of the stage.</p><p><b>Start with 11-page PPT</b></p><p>On Christmas, 2010, Brian Armstrong accidentally read the Bitcoin White Paper, which opened the door to cryptocurrency. He bought more than 1,000 Bitcoin at the price of $9. When the price in Bitcoin once fell to $2, Armstrong didn't leave the market, but always bought Bitcoin by writing code. At the same time, he perceived the entrepreneurial opportunities. Maybe he could create a Bitcoin company himself?</p><p>Two summers later, Brian co-founded Coinbase with partner Fred Ehrsam, in the form of a wallet.</p><p>The duo envisioned that Coinbase would become a Bitcoin marketplace where people could buy cryptocurrencies. Then, they registered Coinbase in the Y Combinator startup incubator project. At the YC Roadshow Day, Brian Armstrong used 11 pages of PPT to describe Coinbase's ideal and vision.<b>\"Coinbase is to Bitcoin what iTunes is to MP3.\"</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c0e0708ac639513c2410ebd1f0b1f841\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"464\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b17b9ebe53adbaca801f770d01bb7ca4\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"464\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/41bede434eab58fecec80fecdd6b3342\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"464\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f7342cc4cdece884e5f61c86d6676cb7\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"464\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a9b15b37dce81a9a98c9abebf9f3131c\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"464\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ae93cc3c61acfa7f72226dcbfb089420\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"464\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/954b4809a22c5020b4c771f0e55fa799\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"464\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/531e25c0f2ef847d1a8b6120996897b2\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"464\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/37fe7fed51c3899aeeb0cf77acd5b5f3\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"464\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6e161463a850b34c79a7a3488583edb8\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"464\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1c8e3d2c29cceb50fbf98a0680641c21\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"464\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">In 2017, when Brian Armstrong reviewed this eleven-page Pitch Deck, he was quite impressed and wrote this passage:</p><p><b>Great things start from humble beginnings.</b></p><p>Most of what you see around you starts out as nothing more than a simple idea and a crude prototype, and it takes five to 10 years to turn it into an \"overnight success\", with dozens of setbacks and route corrections along the way.</p><p><b>So, pick one thing you're passionate about and get started.</b></p><p><b>Slow and fast compliance</b></p><p>Duan Yongping once said, \"Slow is fast\".</p><p>Coinbase is not a case of rapid rise and savage growth. On the contrary, although it was established earlier, its trading volume was far surpassed by its descendants.</p><p>If the global cryptocurrency exchange is compared to a classroom, then Coinbase is the typical \"good student\":<b>Although his grades are average, he is honest and obedient, and is deeply liked by teachers.</b></p><p>At the crossroads of development speed and compliance, Coinbase chose compliance.</p><p>Coinbase has been investing heavily in obtaining regulatory licenses. It has Money Transmitter licenses in 50 states in the United States. At the same time, it has become one of the few exchanges with BitLicense specially issued by New York State for digital currency exchanges. It has obtained licenses to legally trade fiat currencies in 33 countries and opened up payment channels.</p><p>In addition to the exchange business, Coinbase has also applied for and acquired licenses on a large scale in the upstream and downstream of the industrial chain. At present, Coinbase has a series of financial licenses such as payment, savings, loans, financial derivatives trading, alternative asset trading, brokerage trading and investment consulting.</p><p>Previously, according to internal employees, the number of Coinbase's compliance team was once close to 1/3 of the company's, occupying a lot of the company's resources, which also led to Coinbase's high handling fees and insufficient investment in technology, operation and user experience.</p><p>Because of compliance, Coinbase is unable to offer a large number of currency trades, nor does it offer derivative trading such as contracts, resulting in it lagging far behind similar exchanges outside the United States in terms of trading volume.</p><p>In Coinbase's compliance process, Brian Brooks, the former chief legal officer, played a pivotal role, cooperating with various regulatory agencies and leading the construction of the Crypto Rating Council (CRC), an industry alliance.</p><p>In 2020, Brian Brooks was hired as supervisor<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>Head of the U.S. Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC).</p><p>Coinbase's compliance-focused business strategy did not allow it to achieve exponential growth in trading volume and finance in the short term. However, due to its compliance operation and regulatory recognition, it is far ahead of other similar companies in accessing the mainstream financial field, laying a solid foundation for its medium-and long-term development in the US market.</p><p>After completing its compliant infrastructure, delayed-gratifying Coinbase is finally seeing a harvest spring in 2021.</p><p>Coinbase has been \"applauded but not popular\" for a long time. It only made its first profit in 2017, with a net loss of $30 million in 2019. It wasn't until the bull market came in 2020 that it turned losses into profits, with a net profit of $322 million.</p><p>In the first quarter of 2021, Coinbase's performance exploded in an all-round way, achieving revenue of US$1.8 billion, a surge of 844% compared with the same period last year, and a net profit of nearly US$800 million.</p><p>This is all inseparable from Coinbase's early compliance building.</p><p><b>Building the Future</b></p><p>The slowness and stability of Coinbase also stems from Brian Armstrong's long-term planning.<b>Exchange business is the means, not the ultimate goal and destination of Coinbase.</b></p><p>In 2016, Brian Armstrong predicted the development of blockchain in the next few years according to the historical development law of the Internet. He divided his blockchain world future into four main stages, and according to what Coinbase can do at each stage, he formulated the development blueprint of Coinbase in the next ten years.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a8b4e8f8597b30239154d9904b4ec5b9\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"173\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>Phase 1 (Agreement Phase): Development Agreement (serving 1 million people)</b></p><p>At this stage, new protocols (Bitcoin, Ethereum, etc) were created and people began to improve these protocols.</p><p>The open source community will develop around each protocol, and in some cases, these protocols will be sponsored and helped by businesses. The race for protocols has begun, and it remains to be seen which protocol can be extended and attract application developers.</p><p>Coinbase will not be involved in this stage of development and will only keep working closely with some good players.</p><p><b>Phase 2 (infrastructure): Establishment of a digital currency exchange (serving 10 million people)</b></p><p>In Brain Armstrong's view, investment or speculation is an indispensable initialization acceleration mechanism for the establishment of future blockchain payment network, so exchange business is indispensable.</p><p>Initially just a wallet, Coinbase later established the GDAX exchange for institutional and professional investors, which is now known as Coinbase Pro, which constitutes the core business of Coinbase, and Coinbase will use the revenue from this phase to invest in the next phase of the plan, while continuing to expand these businesses to more countries.</p><p><b>Phase 3 (User Portal): Establishing a portal for digital currency applications (serving 100 million people)</b></p><p>When consumers start using blockchain applications (DApps), what they need is a simple user interface and portal. The portal in the Internet world is HTML and Web browser, which is built on the TCP/IP protocol.</p><p>In the blockchain world, Coinbase thinks it will be an undeveloped WEB browser equivalent, and its bottom layer may be a wallet completely controlled by users.</p><p>This will lower the threshold for ordinary people to use it and make it less difficult to develop blockchain applications.</p><p>Coinbase will participate in this phase by establishing or investing in relevant teams.</p><p><b>Phase 4 (Decentralized Application): Creating an Open Financial System Application (serving 1 billion people)</b></p><p>Brian Armstrong believes that the existing traditional financial system will be rebuilt into an open network that can be accessed by users around the world. The applications needed in the future include:</p><p>Loans (mortgages, small business loans, micro-loans, etc.) Venture capital (seed investments, traditional VCs, risky debt, etc.) Investments (stocks, index funds, savings accounts, etc.) Identity and reputation (ID cards, identity authentication, credit scores, etc.) Remittances (cross-border remittances) Merchant processing (retail, online orders) Coinbase will participate in this stage by building teams, acquiring and investing in various companies, and Coinbase will also build developer tools and cooperate with regulators to draft regulatory schemes suitable for this industry.</p><p>To sum up, in Brian Armstrong's plan, the exchange is only the first step in building an ecosystem, and the money earned by the exchange will be continuously used to participate in the next stage of infrastructure construction and investment, so as to finally occupy a place in the open financial system for a billion people.</p><p>In 2016, Brian Armstrong thought they were at the end of Phase 2, but still in the early stages of blockchain.</p><p>Since then, Coinbase has firmly implemented this plan, upgraded Gdax transactions to Coinbase Pro, developed institutional users, and continued to broaden its boundaries through acquisitions:</p><p>Developed the Wallet app Toshi, later renamed Coinbase Wallet; Acquisition of Ethereum dApp browser and wallet Cipher Browse; Acquisition of Ethereum P2P trading platform Paradex; Acquisition of Xapo's custody business; Acquired Tagomi, a master broker platform for digital asset trading; Acquisition of crypto trading infrastructure provider Routefire; Acquisition of blockchain infrastructure provider Bison Trails; Acquisition of cryptocurrency mission site Earn.com... Acquisition of three licensed financial services companies, securities dealer Keystone Capital, Venovate Marketlpace and Digital Wealth LLC.... Going public is not the end point and purpose of Coinbase. At present, everything Coinbase has done is still preparing for the fourth stage, building an open financial system of Coinbase ecosystem.</p><p><b>The 'American Dream' of Cryptocurrency</b></p><p>Coinbase's success is hard to replicate.</p><p>Lei Jun often said that pigs can fly when standing on the wind. There are many pigs who fly when standing on the wind of cryptocurrency, but there is only one Coinbase. Because it is in the United States, why do China, Japan and South Korea not have \"Coinbase\"?</p><p><b>The United States still holds monetary hegemony, is the center of global capital markets, and gradually gains the pricing power of Bitcoin.</b></p><p>In terms of supervision, China, the United States and Japan have different supervision ideas.</p><p>After the September 4th, \"heavy chain suppression of currency\" has become the main theme of China's blockchain world.</p><p>China defines blockchain as a<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/III\">Information Services</a>Technology, the main body of supervision is the Central Cyberspace Administration, while the financial risks that blockchain and cryptocurrency may bring are supervised by the People's Bank of China.</p><p>The regulatory agencies in the United States mainly include the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).</p><p>For token issuance and exchange, the United States does not adopt a one-size-fits-all approach, but incorporates practical tokens and securities tokens into the corresponding regulatory systems respectively. The issuance of securities attribute tokens needs to be registered in accordance with the securities law, and the exchange operation needs to obtain a license.</p><p>At the same time, the US SEC has frequently taken action to crack down on all kinds of illegal ICOs.</p><p>Although Japan is one of the few countries in the world that provides legal protection for digital assets, and the establishment and operation of cryptocurrency exchanges can be completely legal and compliant, due to strict regulation,<b>Japanese exchanges do not have the right to list currency, which makes it more difficult to raise funds and trade local projects, which hinders the development of innovative projects to some extent.</b></p><p>Today's Coinbase, to some extent, has become a sample under the regulatory balance of cryptocurrency in the United States.</p><p>Secondly, as the world's largest economy, the United States provides a broad space for Coinbase. When Wall Street embraces Bitcoin, Coinbase also becomes the \"Bitcoin butler\" of institutions because of its compliance advantages. According to the data of Bituniverse on April 13th, at present, Coinbase platform has 870,000 Bitcoin, far surpassing Binance (215,100) and Huobi (252,300).</p><p><b>Behind the rise of Coinbase is the decline of Bitcoin pricing power in the Eastern world, and the Western world centered on the United States has gained more chips and voice.</b></p><p>Whether it is the business focus or the moat, Coinbase is inseparable from the U.S. regulators and the U.S. market behind it.<b>Coinbase is not the ideal story of decentralization, more of the \"American Dream\" of cryptocurrency.</b></p>","source":"lsy1592805329705","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Coinbase Apocalypse: The Cryptocurrency American Dream Starting with Eleven Page PPT</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCoinbase Apocalypse: The Cryptocurrency American Dream Starting with Eleven Page PPT\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">深潮TechFlow</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-04-13 18:51</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d202e56fe292c12f1ec756eff7095093\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"565\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">A moment in history is approaching when Coinbase will become a milestone in the cryptocurrency world by listing on the US NASDAQ (symbol COIN) on Wednesday (14th).</p><p>Bloomberg news,<b>Coinbase's valuation may be as high as about $100 billion, which is more than the combined market capitalization of the parent company on the Nasdaq and New York Stock Exchange.</b></p><p>Coinbase, founded in 2012, does not have many legends of barbaric growth. If the global cryptocurrency exchange is compared to a classroom, then Coinbase is a typical \"obedient student\": its early grades are average, there are many exchanges with larger trading volume than Coinbase, and there are too many exchanges that are more innovative than Coinbase to mention, but Coinbase is honest and obedient, and it is deeply liked by teachers.</p><p>Finally, it happened that Coinbase came to the center of the stage.</p><p><b>Start with 11-page PPT</b></p><p>On Christmas, 2010, Brian Armstrong accidentally read the Bitcoin White Paper, which opened the door to cryptocurrency. He bought more than 1,000 Bitcoin at the price of $9. When the price in Bitcoin once fell to $2, Armstrong didn't leave the market, but always bought Bitcoin by writing code. At the same time, he perceived the entrepreneurial opportunities. Maybe he could create a Bitcoin company himself?</p><p>Two summers later, Brian co-founded Coinbase with partner Fred Ehrsam, in the form of a wallet.</p><p>The duo envisioned that Coinbase would become a Bitcoin marketplace where people could buy cryptocurrencies. Then, they registered Coinbase in the Y Combinator startup incubator project. At the YC Roadshow Day, Brian Armstrong used 11 pages of PPT to describe Coinbase's ideal and vision.<b>\"Coinbase is to Bitcoin what iTunes is to MP3.\"</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c0e0708ac639513c2410ebd1f0b1f841\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"464\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b17b9ebe53adbaca801f770d01bb7ca4\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"464\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/41bede434eab58fecec80fecdd6b3342\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"464\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f7342cc4cdece884e5f61c86d6676cb7\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"464\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a9b15b37dce81a9a98c9abebf9f3131c\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"464\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ae93cc3c61acfa7f72226dcbfb089420\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"464\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/954b4809a22c5020b4c771f0e55fa799\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"464\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/531e25c0f2ef847d1a8b6120996897b2\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"464\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/37fe7fed51c3899aeeb0cf77acd5b5f3\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"464\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6e161463a850b34c79a7a3488583edb8\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"464\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1c8e3d2c29cceb50fbf98a0680641c21\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"464\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">In 2017, when Brian Armstrong reviewed this eleven-page Pitch Deck, he was quite impressed and wrote this passage:</p><p><b>Great things start from humble beginnings.</b></p><p>Most of what you see around you starts out as nothing more than a simple idea and a crude prototype, and it takes five to 10 years to turn it into an \"overnight success\", with dozens of setbacks and route corrections along the way.</p><p><b>So, pick one thing you're passionate about and get started.</b></p><p><b>Slow and fast compliance</b></p><p>Duan Yongping once said, \"Slow is fast\".</p><p>Coinbase is not a case of rapid rise and savage growth. On the contrary, although it was established earlier, its trading volume was far surpassed by its descendants.</p><p>If the global cryptocurrency exchange is compared to a classroom, then Coinbase is the typical \"good student\":<b>Although his grades are average, he is honest and obedient, and is deeply liked by teachers.</b></p><p>At the crossroads of development speed and compliance, Coinbase chose compliance.</p><p>Coinbase has been investing heavily in obtaining regulatory licenses. It has Money Transmitter licenses in 50 states in the United States. At the same time, it has become one of the few exchanges with BitLicense specially issued by New York State for digital currency exchanges. It has obtained licenses to legally trade fiat currencies in 33 countries and opened up payment channels.</p><p>In addition to the exchange business, Coinbase has also applied for and acquired licenses on a large scale in the upstream and downstream of the industrial chain. At present, Coinbase has a series of financial licenses such as payment, savings, loans, financial derivatives trading, alternative asset trading, brokerage trading and investment consulting.</p><p>Previously, according to internal employees, the number of Coinbase's compliance team was once close to 1/3 of the company's, occupying a lot of the company's resources, which also led to Coinbase's high handling fees and insufficient investment in technology, operation and user experience.</p><p>Because of compliance, Coinbase is unable to offer a large number of currency trades, nor does it offer derivative trading such as contracts, resulting in it lagging far behind similar exchanges outside the United States in terms of trading volume.</p><p>In Coinbase's compliance process, Brian Brooks, the former chief legal officer, played a pivotal role, cooperating with various regulatory agencies and leading the construction of the Crypto Rating Council (CRC), an industry alliance.</p><p>In 2020, Brian Brooks was hired as supervisor<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>Head of the U.S. Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC).</p><p>Coinbase's compliance-focused business strategy did not allow it to achieve exponential growth in trading volume and finance in the short term. However, due to its compliance operation and regulatory recognition, it is far ahead of other similar companies in accessing the mainstream financial field, laying a solid foundation for its medium-and long-term development in the US market.</p><p>After completing its compliant infrastructure, delayed-gratifying Coinbase is finally seeing a harvest spring in 2021.</p><p>Coinbase has been \"applauded but not popular\" for a long time. It only made its first profit in 2017, with a net loss of $30 million in 2019. It wasn't until the bull market came in 2020 that it turned losses into profits, with a net profit of $322 million.</p><p>In the first quarter of 2021, Coinbase's performance exploded in an all-round way, achieving revenue of US$1.8 billion, a surge of 844% compared with the same period last year, and a net profit of nearly US$800 million.</p><p>This is all inseparable from Coinbase's early compliance building.</p><p><b>Building the Future</b></p><p>The slowness and stability of Coinbase also stems from Brian Armstrong's long-term planning.<b>Exchange business is the means, not the ultimate goal and destination of Coinbase.</b></p><p>In 2016, Brian Armstrong predicted the development of blockchain in the next few years according to the historical development law of the Internet. He divided his blockchain world future into four main stages, and according to what Coinbase can do at each stage, he formulated the development blueprint of Coinbase in the next ten years.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a8b4e8f8597b30239154d9904b4ec5b9\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"173\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>Phase 1 (Agreement Phase): Development Agreement (serving 1 million people)</b></p><p>At this stage, new protocols (Bitcoin, Ethereum, etc) were created and people began to improve these protocols.</p><p>The open source community will develop around each protocol, and in some cases, these protocols will be sponsored and helped by businesses. The race for protocols has begun, and it remains to be seen which protocol can be extended and attract application developers.</p><p>Coinbase will not be involved in this stage of development and will only keep working closely with some good players.</p><p><b>Phase 2 (infrastructure): Establishment of a digital currency exchange (serving 10 million people)</b></p><p>In Brain Armstrong's view, investment or speculation is an indispensable initialization acceleration mechanism for the establishment of future blockchain payment network, so exchange business is indispensable.</p><p>Initially just a wallet, Coinbase later established the GDAX exchange for institutional and professional investors, which is now known as Coinbase Pro, which constitutes the core business of Coinbase, and Coinbase will use the revenue from this phase to invest in the next phase of the plan, while continuing to expand these businesses to more countries.</p><p><b>Phase 3 (User Portal): Establishing a portal for digital currency applications (serving 100 million people)</b></p><p>When consumers start using blockchain applications (DApps), what they need is a simple user interface and portal. The portal in the Internet world is HTML and Web browser, which is built on the TCP/IP protocol.</p><p>In the blockchain world, Coinbase thinks it will be an undeveloped WEB browser equivalent, and its bottom layer may be a wallet completely controlled by users.</p><p>This will lower the threshold for ordinary people to use it and make it less difficult to develop blockchain applications.</p><p>Coinbase will participate in this phase by establishing or investing in relevant teams.</p><p><b>Phase 4 (Decentralized Application): Creating an Open Financial System Application (serving 1 billion people)</b></p><p>Brian Armstrong believes that the existing traditional financial system will be rebuilt into an open network that can be accessed by users around the world. The applications needed in the future include:</p><p>Loans (mortgages, small business loans, micro-loans, etc.) Venture capital (seed investments, traditional VCs, risky debt, etc.) Investments (stocks, index funds, savings accounts, etc.) Identity and reputation (ID cards, identity authentication, credit scores, etc.) Remittances (cross-border remittances) Merchant processing (retail, online orders) Coinbase will participate in this stage by building teams, acquiring and investing in various companies, and Coinbase will also build developer tools and cooperate with regulators to draft regulatory schemes suitable for this industry.</p><p>To sum up, in Brian Armstrong's plan, the exchange is only the first step in building an ecosystem, and the money earned by the exchange will be continuously used to participate in the next stage of infrastructure construction and investment, so as to finally occupy a place in the open financial system for a billion people.</p><p>In 2016, Brian Armstrong thought they were at the end of Phase 2, but still in the early stages of blockchain.</p><p>Since then, Coinbase has firmly implemented this plan, upgraded Gdax transactions to Coinbase Pro, developed institutional users, and continued to broaden its boundaries through acquisitions:</p><p>Developed the Wallet app Toshi, later renamed Coinbase Wallet; Acquisition of Ethereum dApp browser and wallet Cipher Browse; Acquisition of Ethereum P2P trading platform Paradex; Acquisition of Xapo's custody business; Acquired Tagomi, a master broker platform for digital asset trading; Acquisition of crypto trading infrastructure provider Routefire; Acquisition of blockchain infrastructure provider Bison Trails; Acquisition of cryptocurrency mission site Earn.com... Acquisition of three licensed financial services companies, securities dealer Keystone Capital, Venovate Marketlpace and Digital Wealth LLC.... Going public is not the end point and purpose of Coinbase. At present, everything Coinbase has done is still preparing for the fourth stage, building an open financial system of Coinbase ecosystem.</p><p><b>The 'American Dream' of Cryptocurrency</b></p><p>Coinbase's success is hard to replicate.</p><p>Lei Jun often said that pigs can fly when standing on the wind. There are many pigs who fly when standing on the wind of cryptocurrency, but there is only one Coinbase. Because it is in the United States, why do China, Japan and South Korea not have \"Coinbase\"?</p><p><b>The United States still holds monetary hegemony, is the center of global capital markets, and gradually gains the pricing power of Bitcoin.</b></p><p>In terms of supervision, China, the United States and Japan have different supervision ideas.</p><p>After the September 4th, \"heavy chain suppression of currency\" has become the main theme of China's blockchain world.</p><p>China defines blockchain as a<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/III\">Information Services</a>Technology, the main body of supervision is the Central Cyberspace Administration, while the financial risks that blockchain and cryptocurrency may bring are supervised by the People's Bank of China.</p><p>The regulatory agencies in the United States mainly include the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).</p><p>For token issuance and exchange, the United States does not adopt a one-size-fits-all approach, but incorporates practical tokens and securities tokens into the corresponding regulatory systems respectively. The issuance of securities attribute tokens needs to be registered in accordance with the securities law, and the exchange operation needs to obtain a license.</p><p>At the same time, the US SEC has frequently taken action to crack down on all kinds of illegal ICOs.</p><p>Although Japan is one of the few countries in the world that provides legal protection for digital assets, and the establishment and operation of cryptocurrency exchanges can be completely legal and compliant, due to strict regulation,<b>Japanese exchanges do not have the right to list currency, which makes it more difficult to raise funds and trade local projects, which hinders the development of innovative projects to some extent.</b></p><p>Today's Coinbase, to some extent, has become a sample under the regulatory balance of cryptocurrency in the United States.</p><p>Secondly, as the world's largest economy, the United States provides a broad space for Coinbase. When Wall Street embraces Bitcoin, Coinbase also becomes the \"Bitcoin butler\" of institutions because of its compliance advantages. According to the data of Bituniverse on April 13th, at present, Coinbase platform has 870,000 Bitcoin, far surpassing Binance (215,100) and Huobi (252,300).</p><p><b>Behind the rise of Coinbase is the decline of Bitcoin pricing power in the Eastern world, and the Western world centered on the United States has gained more chips and voice.</b></p><p>Whether it is the business focus or the moat, Coinbase is inseparable from the U.S. regulators and the U.S. market behind it.<b>Coinbase is not the ideal story of decentralization, more of the \"American Dream\" of cryptocurrency.</b></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/vx_QxhcTbgRnlQEfm16yzA\">深潮TechFlow</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d202e56fe292c12f1ec756eff7095093","relate_stocks":{"COIN":"Coinbase Global, Inc."},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/vx_QxhcTbgRnlQEfm16yzA","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2127015413","content_text":"历史一刻即将来临，Coinbase将于周三（14日）在美国纳斯达克上市（代码COIN），成为加密货币世界的里程碑。彭博社消息，Coinbase估值或高达约1000亿美元，这一数值超过纳斯达克交易所加纽约证券交易所母公司的市值总和。成立于2012年的Coinbase并没有太多野蛮生长的传奇色彩，如果把全球加密货币交易所比作一间教室，那么Coinbase就是典型的“听话学生”：前期成绩一般，比Coinbase交易量大的交易所很多，比Coinbase创新的交易所不胜枚举，但Coinbase老实听话，深受老师的喜欢。最后，偏偏是Coinbase来到了舞台中央。从11页PPT开始2010年圣诞节，Brian Armstrong偶然间阅读了比特币白皮书，从此打开了加密货币的大门，他以9美元的价格购买了1000多枚比特币，在比特币价格一度跌到2美元的时候，Armstrong并没有离场，而是一直靠编写代码来购买比特币，与此同时，他觉察到了其中的创业机会，也许自己可以创建一个比特币公司？2年后的夏天，Brian与与合作伙伴Fred Ehrsam共同创建了Coinbase，以钱包的形式。两人设想，Coinbase将成为一个比特币市场，人们可以在这里购买加密货币。随后，他们将Coinbase登记入了Y Combinator创业孵化器项目，在 YC 路演日上，Brian Armstrong用了十一页PPT描绘 Coinbase 理想与愿景，“Coinbase之于比特币，就好比 iTunes之于MP3 。”2017年，当Brian Armstrong回顾这十一页Pitch Deck时，颇有感想，写下了这段话：伟大的事物都是从卑微的起点开始的。你身边看到的大多数东西，一开始不过是一个简单的想法和一个粗糙的原型，要把它变成 \"一夜成功\"，需要5到10年的时间，一路上要经历几十次挫折和路线修正。所以，选择一件你热衷的事情，开始吧。合规的慢与快段永平曾言，“慢就是快”。Coinbase并不是快速崛起，野蛮生长的案例，相反，尽管它成立较早，但是交易量远被它的后辈们超越。如果把全球加密货币交易所比作一间教室，那么Coinbase就是典型的“好学生”：尽管成绩一般，但是老实听话，深受老师的喜欢。在发展速度与合规的十字路口，Coinbase选择了合规。Coinbase一直在获得监管牌照方面不惜投入重金，拥有美国50个州的转账交易牌照（Money Transmitter License），同时成为为数不多的、拥有纽约州专门为数字货币交易所颁发的BitLicense的交易所，在33个国家取得合法交易法币的许可并打通支付渠道。除了交易所业务，Coinbase在产业链上下游也大规模申请和收购牌照， 目前Coinbase拥有支付、储蓄、贷款、金融衍生品交易、另类资产交易、券商交易和投资顾问等一系列金融牌照。此前据内部员工透露，Coinbase合规团队人数一度接近公司的1/3，占据公司大量资源，这也导致Coinbase手续费高昂，在技术、运营和用户体验上投入不足。因为合规，Coinbase无法提供大量币种交易，也没有提供合约这样的衍生品交易，导致其在交易量方面远远落后于美国境外的同类交易所。在Coinbase的合规进程中，前任首席法务官Brian Brooks发挥了举足轻重的作用，配合各个监管机构，牵头建设了行业联盟性质的加密数字货币评级委员会（Crypto Rating Council，CRC）。2020年，Brian Brooks被聘请担任为监管美国银行业的美国货币监理局（OCC）负责人。Coinbase专注合规的经营战略并没有让它在短期内实现交易量以及财务方面的指数级增长，但是由于它的合规经营，并且受到监管的认可，它在接入主流金融领域方面遥遥领先于其它同类公司，奠定了它在美国市场中长期发展的坚实基础。在完成合规的基础建设之后，延迟满足的Coinbase终于在2021年迎来收获的春天。Coinbase长期“叫好不叫座”，2017年才实现首次盈利，2019年净亏损3000万美元，直到2020年牛市来临，扭亏为盈，净利润3.22亿美元。2021一季度，Coinbase业绩全面爆发，实现营收18亿美元，较去年同期暴增844%，净利润接近8亿美元。这一切都离不开Coinbase早期的合规建设。建设未来Coinbase的慢与稳，也源于Brian Armstrong的长期规划，交易所业务是手段，而不是Coinbase的最终目的与归宿。2016年，Brian Armstrong 根据互联网的历史发展规律，预测了区块链未来几年的发展，他将其区块链世界未来划分为四个主要的阶段，并根据每个阶段 Coinbase能做的事情，制定了 Coinbase未来十年的发展蓝图。第一阶段（协议阶段）：开发协议（服务100万人）在这个阶段，新的协议（比特币、以太坊等）被创造了出来，人们开始改进这些协议。开源社区会围绕着每一个协议进行开发，在某些情况下，这些协议会得到企业的赞助和帮助。协议的竞赛已开始上演，究竟哪个协议可以得到扩展，并吸引应用开发者，仍有待于观察。Coinbase 不会参与这个阶段的开发，只会和一些优秀的玩家保持紧密合作。第二阶段（基础设施）：建立数字货币交易所（服务1000万人）在Brain Armstrong看来，投资或者说投机对于未来区块链的支付网络建立是不可或缺的初始化加速机制，因此交易所业务不可或缺。最初，Coinbase只是钱包，后来为机构和职业投资者建立了GDAX交易所，也就是如今的Coinbase Pro，这构成了Coinbase的核心业务，Coinbase 将用这阶段的收入来投资下一阶段计划，同时继续将这些业务扩展到更多的国家。第三阶段（用户入口）：为数字货币应用建立入口（服务1亿人）消费者在开始使用区块链应用（dApp）时，他们需要的是一个简单的用户界面和入口，互联网世界里的入口是HTML与Web浏览器，这是建立在TCP/IP协议之上。在区块链世界里，Coinbase 认为它会是尚未开发出来的WEB浏览器同类产品，其底层可能是一个完全由用户控制的钱包。这将降低普通人使用它的门槛，并且降低区块链应用的开发难度。Coinbase 将通过建立或投资相关的团队来参与这一阶段。第四阶段（去中心化应用）：打造一个开放式金融系统应用（服务10亿人）Brian Armstrong 认为现有的传统金融系统将被重建为一个开放式的网络，可供全球用户访问，未来需要的应用包括：贷款（抵押贷款、小企业贷款、小额贷款等）风险投资（种子投资、传统VC，风险债务等）投资（股票、指数型基金、储蓄账户等）身份与声誉（身份证、身份认证、信用评分等）汇款（跨境汇款）商户处理（零售、网络订单）Coinbase会通过建立团队、收购和投资各种公司的方式来参与这一阶段，并且Coinbase 也将建立开发者工具，并与监管机构合作来起草适合这一行业的监管方案。总结起来，在Brian Armstrong的规划中，交易所只是构建生态的第一步，并持续利用交易所赚的钱去参与下一个阶段的基础设施建设与投资，从而最终在面向十亿人的开放金融系统中占据一席之地。2016年，Brian Armstrong认为他们处于第二阶段的末尾期，但仍处于区块链的早期阶段。此后，Coinbase 坚定地执行了这个计划，把Gdax交易升级成Coinbase Pro，发力机构用户，并持续通过收购，拓宽自己的边界：开发了钱包应用 Toshi，后来改名为 Coinbase Wallet；收购以太坊dApp浏览器和钱包Cipher Browse；收购以太坊P2P交易平台Paradex；收购Xapo的托管业务；收购数字资产交易主经纪商平台Tagomi；收购加密交易基础设施提供商Routefire；收购区块链基础设施提供商Bison Trails；收购加密货币任务网站Earn.com……收购三家持牌金融服务公司，证券交易商 Keystone Capital，Venovate Marketlpace 和 Digital Wealth LLC 。……上市也不是Coinbase的终点和目的，目前Coinbase所做的一切，仍然在为第四个阶段，构建Coinbase生态的开放金融系统做准备。加密货币的“美国梦”Coinbase的成功难以复制。雷军常说，站在风口上，猪都能飞起来，站在加密货币的风口上飞起来的猪有很多，但Coinbase只有一个，因为它在美国，为什么中国、日本、韩国没有“Coinbase”？美国依然掌握了货币霸权，是全球资本市场的中心，并且逐渐得到了比特币的定价权。监管上，中国、美国、日本的监管思路不同。九四之后，“重链抑币”成为中国区块链世界的主旋律。中国将区块链定义为一种信息服务技术，监管主体是中央网信办，而对于区块链以及加密货币可能带来的金融风险，则由中国人民银行进行监管。美国的监管机构主要包括美国证券交易委员会 (SEC)、商品期货交易委员会（CFTC）。对于代币发行和交易所，美国并没有采用一刀切的方式，而是将实用型通证和证券性通证分别纳入相应监管体系，证券属性代币的发行需要依照证券法登记注册，交易所经营则需要获得牌照。与此同时，美国SEC频繁出手，打击各类非法ICO。尽管日本是全球为数不多为数字资产提供法律保障的国家之一，加密货币交易所的设立运营也完全可以合法合规，然而由于监管严苛，日本交易所没有上币权，从而导致本土项目募资和交易的难度变大，一定程度上阻碍了创新项目的发展。如今的Coinbase，一定程度上成为了美国加密货币监管平衡术下的样本。其次，美国作为全球最大的经济体，为Coinbase提供了广阔的空间，当华尔街拥抱比特币，Coinbase也因为其合规优势成为了机构们的“比特币大管家”，据Bituniverse 4月13日数据，目前Coinbase平台拥有87万枚比特币，远超币安（21.51万）和火币（25.23万）。Coinbase的崛起，背后是东方世界比特币定价权的衰落，以美国为中心的西方世界获得更多筹码以及话语权。无论是业务重心还是护城河，Coinbase都离不开身后的美国监管机构以及美国市场，Coinbase并不是去中心化的理想故事，更多是加密货币的“美国梦”。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"COIN":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4277,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":342319580,"gmtCreate":1618184038440,"gmtModify":1704707111115,"author":{"id":"3557305548001793","authorId":"3557305548001793","name":"Ikhas","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a0fd7b69b3c00ecf9cc780ede0cf5943","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3557305548001793","idStr":"3557305548001793"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"mega infrastructure","listText":"mega infrastructure","text":"mega infrastructure","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/342319580","repostId":"355053283","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":355053283,"gmtCreate":1617017572235,"gmtModify":1704800870033,"author":{"id":"3502860692623653","authorId":"3502860692623653","name":"爱上趋势股","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/17f4521614b0cae62aff9fa7fa80fa77","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3502860692623653","idStr":"3502860692623653"},"themes":[],"title":"美國“洪水四溢”，大基建勢在必行！","htmlText":"3月27日，中國和伊朗正式簽署一項爲期25年的協議，包括政治、戰略和經濟合作。 伊朗媒體報道，協議中重要的三條： 中國將增加對伊朗的基礎設施投資，提升伊朗整體國力； 中伊之間的石油和貿易往來，將使用人民幣和數字人民幣結算，避開美元； 伊朗的導彈，將使用“北斗”導航系統進行制導。 加上不久前的中俄外長會晤，這意味着中俄伊形成了亞歐大陸重要的“鐵三角”。此外，王部長還訪問了沙特、土耳其、伊朗、阿聯酋、巴林、阿曼六個中東國家，均得到了對中國的支持立場。 中東諸國對中國的支持，具有跨時代的重要意義，今天我們只講一些涉及金融的： 阿拉斯加會談打破了我們對美國最後的一絲希望：“我們把你們（美國）想的太好了” 我國外交由守轉攻，打破美國封鎖，給搖擺派、投降派、騎牆派以打擊，尤其是傲嬌的歐洲； 告訴美國佬，你們的通脹我們不吃了，愛印多少印多少吧！我要真的開始推動人民幣國際化了，先是俄羅斯、伊朗，剩下的再一個個來； 美國通脹預期飆升。 網上流傳一個段子： 一羣【印度人】開着【臺灣人】從【日本人】租來的【美國人】控股的船，掛着【巴拿馬人】的國旗，堵住了【埃及人】的蘇伊士運河，把【美國人】用來威脅【中國人】和【伊朗人】簽約的航母戰鬥羣堵在了地中海”——《到底誰是臥底》? 國運來了擋不住，說回股市，中伊這個協定，直接利好的三個板塊： 1、新疆 新疆以後對於我國的重要性越來越強；除了石油從這裏進來外，大量的高鐵、基建，還承載着我國的對外貿易。這也是爲啥，美國最近一直在新疆搞事情。 上週四，我在空間站裏提到的是<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600540\">$新賽股份(600540)$</a> 。今天，<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002941\">$新疆交建(002941)</a>","listText":"3月27日，中國和伊朗正式簽署一項爲期25年的協議，包括政治、戰略和經濟合作。 伊朗媒體報道，協議中重要的三條： 中國將增加對伊朗的基礎設施投資，提升伊朗整體國力； 中伊之間的石油和貿易往來，將使用人民幣和數字人民幣結算，避開美元； 伊朗的導彈，將使用“北斗”導航系統進行制導。 加上不久前的中俄外長會晤，這意味着中俄伊形成了亞歐大陸重要的“鐵三角”。此外，王部長還訪問了沙特、土耳其、伊朗、阿聯酋、巴林、阿曼六個中東國家，均得到了對中國的支持立場。 中東諸國對中國的支持，具有跨時代的重要意義，今天我們只講一些涉及金融的： 阿拉斯加會談打破了我們對美國最後的一絲希望：“我們把你們（美國）想的太好了” 我國外交由守轉攻，打破美國封鎖，給搖擺派、投降派、騎牆派以打擊，尤其是傲嬌的歐洲； 告訴美國佬，你們的通脹我們不吃了，愛印多少印多少吧！我要真的開始推動人民幣國際化了，先是俄羅斯、伊朗，剩下的再一個個來； 美國通脹預期飆升。 網上流傳一個段子： 一羣【印度人】開着【臺灣人】從【日本人】租來的【美國人】控股的船，掛着【巴拿馬人】的國旗，堵住了【埃及人】的蘇伊士運河，把【美國人】用來威脅【中國人】和【伊朗人】簽約的航母戰鬥羣堵在了地中海”——《到底誰是臥底》? 國運來了擋不住，說回股市，中伊這個協定，直接利好的三個板塊： 1、新疆 新疆以後對於我國的重要性越來越強；除了石油從這裏進來外，大量的高鐵、基建，還承載着我國的對外貿易。這也是爲啥，美國最近一直在新疆搞事情。 上週四，我在空間站裏提到的是<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600540\">$新賽股份(600540)$</a> 。今天，<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002941\">$新疆交建(002941)</a>","text":"3月27日，中國和伊朗正式簽署一項爲期25年的協議，包括政治、戰略和經濟合作。 伊朗媒體報道，協議中重要的三條： 中國將增加對伊朗的基礎設施投資，提升伊朗整體國力； 中伊之間的石油和貿易往來，將使用人民幣和數字人民幣結算，避開美元； 伊朗的導彈，將使用“北斗”導航系統進行制導。 加上不久前的中俄外長會晤，這意味着中俄伊形成了亞歐大陸重要的“鐵三角”。此外，王部長還訪問了沙特、土耳其、伊朗、阿聯酋、巴林、阿曼六個中東國家，均得到了對中國的支持立場。 中東諸國對中國的支持，具有跨時代的重要意義，今天我們只講一些涉及金融的： 阿拉斯加會談打破了我們對美國最後的一絲希望：“我們把你們（美國）想的太好了” 我國外交由守轉攻，打破美國封鎖，給搖擺派、投降派、騎牆派以打擊，尤其是傲嬌的歐洲； 告訴美國佬，你們的通脹我們不吃了，愛印多少印多少吧！我要真的開始推動人民幣國際化了，先是俄羅斯、伊朗，剩下的再一個個來； 美國通脹預期飆升。 網上流傳一個段子： 一羣【印度人】開着【臺灣人】從【日本人】租來的【美國人】控股的船，掛着【巴拿馬人】的國旗，堵住了【埃及人】的蘇伊士運河，把【美國人】用來威脅【中國人】和【伊朗人】簽約的航母戰鬥羣堵在了地中海”——《到底誰是臥底》? 國運來了擋不住，說回股市，中伊這個協定，直接利好的三個板塊： 1、新疆 新疆以後對於我國的重要性越來越強；除了石油從這裏進來外，大量的高鐵、基建，還承載着我國的對外貿易。這也是爲啥，美國最近一直在新疆搞事情。 上週四，我在空間站裏提到的是$新賽股份(600540)$ 。今天，$新疆交建(002941)","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/59094069d0ed0614d3ca11b3da3303cc","width":"639","height":"355"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7de5d44e70aa80c73d0620ee1f414374","width":"581","height":"198"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/01bdd6c7832cc18def7e66ab34030f7b","width":"904","height":"403"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/355053283","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":7,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4896,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":343067970,"gmtCreate":1617664588690,"gmtModify":1704701430766,"author":{"id":"3557305548001793","authorId":"3557305548001793","name":"Ikhas","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a0fd7b69b3c00ecf9cc780ede0cf5943","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3557305548001793","idStr":"3557305548001793"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"bubble bang","listText":"bubble bang","text":"bubble bang","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/343067970","repostId":"2124543317","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4996,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":343064676,"gmtCreate":1617664536895,"gmtModify":1704701429799,"author":{"id":"3557305548001793","authorId":"3557305548001793","name":"Ikhas","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a0fd7b69b3c00ecf9cc780ede0cf5943","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3557305548001793","idStr":"3557305548001793"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"rise of empire","listText":"rise of empire","text":"rise of empire","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/343064676","repostId":"1148759697","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1148759697","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1617602084,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1148759697?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-04-05 13:54","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"46-year-old Microsoft: From Gates building empire to Nadella revival","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1148759697","media":"新智元","summary":"距离1975年4月4日比尔·盖茨与保罗·艾伦创办微软以来，已经过去了46个年头。微软一路走来，崛起，落幕再到反击，一步步地完成华丽蜕变。\n2021年4月4日，是微软46周岁的生日！\n\n距离1975年比","content":"<p>Founded by Bill Gates and Paul Allen on April 4, 1975<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">Microsoft</a>Since then, 46 years have passed. Microsoft has gone all the way, rising, ending and then fighting back, completing the gorgeous transformation step by step.</p><p>April 4, 2021, is Microsoft's 46th birthday!</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c556eaf14e7888dab1569feac7a8a3ed\" tg-width=\"580\" tg-height=\"340\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>It has been 46 years since Bill Gates and Paul Allen founded Microsoft in 1975.</p><p>Like a 46-year-old middle-aged man, Microsoft finally survived the midlife crisis and returned to the high-profile and dazzling technology throne with a mature and low-key attitude.</p><p>In order to commemorate those years we walked together, Xiaobian rummaged through boxes and found out Microsoft's journey all the way.</p><p><b>The Rise of the Empire</b></p><p>When it comes to Microsoft, we have to start with Bill Gates, a man of the hour.</p><p>Bill Gates, 19, should be the most successful Harvard dropout.</p><p>In 1975, Bill Gates dropped out of Harvard University to sell with his high school alum Paul Allen. BASIC (Beginners' All-purpose Symbolic Instruction Code). BASIC is \"Beginner's General Symbolic Instruction Code\", a programming language designed for beginners.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e3b47fb0cff04e915c75dd116783ea1\" tg-width=\"919\" tg-height=\"611\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>While Gates was still studying at Harvard, they also programmed languages for MITS' Altair.</p><p>Later, Gates and Allen moved to Albuquerque, New Mexico, USA, and founded Microsoft in a local hotel room. In the early days of the company's founding, the main business of modifying BASIC programs continued to grow.</p><p>So, do you know how Microsoft got its name?</p><p>The word Microsoft consists of two parts: \"Microcomputer\" and \"software\".</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd1624aa9d27000141305dda2459fa51\" tg-width=\"480\" tg-height=\"288\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>If you know DOS, this will fully reveal your age!</p><p>In the 1980s,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IBM\">IBM</a>The company chose Microsoft to write key operating system software for its new PC-a major turning point in Microsoft's development.</p><p>But because of the time crunch and the complexity of the program, Microsoft paid $50,000 from a Seattle programmer<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDCO\">Patterson</a>I bought the right to use an operating system and rewrote it into disk operating system software (MS-DOS).</p><p>MS-DOS is just a single-user and single-task operating system. Windows 95, Windows 98 and Windows Me are based on DOS as the operating system carrier.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3eb22081c598a5e266f2c4c9401296b4\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"450\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The popularization of MS-DOS in IBM-PC has achieved great success. Other PC manufacturers wanted to be compatible with IBM, so in the 1980s, it became the standard operating system for PCs.</p><p>In 1995, at the age of 39, Gates rose to the top of the world's richest man with a net worth of $12.9 billion. Microsoft had $5.9 billion in sales and 17,801 employees that year.</p><p>In fact, from 1995 to 2007, Gates ranked number one on Forbes' list of the richest people in the world for 13 consecutive years, becoming the biggest winner in his life.</p><p>Cross-Century Masterpiece: Windows</p><p>On November 10, 1983, the Windows operating system made its debut. The product is an evolved version of the MS-DOS operating system and provides a graphical user interface.</p><p>Microsoft Windows 1.0 was officially launched in 1985, ending the command line era of Microsoft's operating system.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1254e9ffec99643fce081d8cf482fe86\" tg-width=\"770\" tg-height=\"578\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Unlike Windows, MS-DOS operates by using commands, and the system runs the program according to the commands entered by the user.</p><p>While Windows 1.0 allows users to point and click to access Windows instead of typing MS-DOS commands.</p><p>The Windows 1.0 operating system released by Microsoft is actually an extension of MS-DOS, which was not welcomed at that time. With continuous iterations, Windows 3.0 finally ushered in its initial victory.</p><p>It was late 1989 and Microsoft was working hard to finalize the best version of Windows it knew to date.</p><p>Windows 3.0 bets heavily on the graphical user interface with a new 3D bevel design and shiny new icons.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6ccb74506a615c95fede98719e5a01e7\" tg-width=\"650\" tg-height=\"400\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>It's an exciting product, as Microsoft said at the time.</p><p>After more than twenty years of development, Microsoft released the Windows 10 operating system that everyone is using today on July 29, 2015.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/737fb0e0e36329d02dda162f6217873e\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"607\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>The end of the king</b></p><p>Microsoft in the Ballmer era lost again and again.</p><p>In 2000, Bill Gates handed over the CEO position to Steve Ballmer, who had been in charge of the company's operations and day-to-day management,</p><p>Also created a new position for myself: Chief Software Architect.</p><p>Until 2008, Ballmer succeeded Gates as president of Microsoft. In the 13 years at the helm, although Ballmer led Microsoft to achieve excellent results: three times the number of employees, four times the annual revenue and ten times the annual profit.</p><p>However, as Microsoft's second CEO, Ballmer has suffered a lot of criticism.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/47a1c1c6a3202fad77c2295afba1941b\" tg-width=\"611\" tg-height=\"350\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>He led Microsoft's repeated attempts to fail. Windows Phone was strangled by iOS and Android, Windows 8 was frequently criticized, and cloud computing was difficult to break through.</p><p>During Ballmer's tenure as CEO, Microsoft's enormous potential has permeated every aspect of the software world, and it is simply invincible,</p><p>Windows's share of the PC operating system market exceeds 90%, and Microsoft's huge influence has put great pressure on its software peers, pushing itself into the position of defendant in antitrust law.</p><p><b>Empire Strikes Back: Return of the Age of Kings</b></p><p>In 2014, Satya Nadella, a 46-year-old Indian, officially took over as Microsoft's third CEO.</p><p>At that time, Microsoft was like a twilight giant, unable to keep up with the pace of the times, but Nadella directed the great revival of Microsoft by himself.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7712e4be90659dbfcbf9846d854a78f4\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"561\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Nadella not only transformed Microsoft's business strategy, but also reformed Microsoft's corporate culture. He has been working to change the way Microsoft operates by changing the way it thinks.</p><p>By now, Microsoft's market value has reached $1.83 trillion.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3c1f2c20c30d838a32a1308b380d46a2\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"749\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In the next five years, Nadella led Microsoft to find its way again.</p><p>Microsoft axed former CEO Ballmer's $7.2 billion acquisition<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NOK\">Nokia</a>The mobile phone business, announced the largest layoffs in history, with layoffs accounting for 14% of the company's global workforce of more than 120,000 people.</p><p>All these trade-offs are all to focus the development on cloud services.</p><p>Under Nadella's leadership, Microsoft cut the budget of its Windows division and built a huge cloud computing business-Microsoft Azure.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/21984c7ce006e141c0b3fc7c52ef93b5\" tg-width=\"902\" tg-height=\"528\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Currently, Microsoft's cloud platform Azure has won the favor of many large enterprise customers.</p><p>Office, our Office productivity software, is also gradually becoming a cloud service. It has gained more than 214 million subscribers, and these users pay a subscription fee of $99 each year.</p><p>In the eyes of Microsoft internal employees, Nadella's transformation of corporate culture has contributed a lot to the company's revival!</p><p>Microsoft, left by the previous CEO, is in a serious internal fight, with executives fighting for power and teams shirking responsibility when they encounter problems.</p><p>In \"Refresh-Rediscovering Business and the Future,\" Nadella bluntly said, \"Business strategy transformation is not his first priority as Microsoft CEO. The CEO is the CEO, but also the cultural executive.\"</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6fccecc75731bd7c7a26ad4906aa6762\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"443\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>He inspired Microsoft employees to become \"learn-it-all\" people.</p><p>From Windows to the cloud, Nadella transformed Microsoft's chariot and achieved Microsoft's market value of trillion dollars.</p><p>Microsoft is 46 years old, and it is still king when it returns.</p>","source":"lsy1569730104218","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>46-year-old Microsoft: From Gates building empire to Nadella revival</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n46-year-old Microsoft: From Gates building empire to Nadella revival\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">新智元</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-04-05 13:54</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Founded by Bill Gates and Paul Allen on April 4, 1975<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">Microsoft</a>Since then, 46 years have passed. Microsoft has gone all the way, rising, ending and then fighting back, completing the gorgeous transformation step by step.</p><p>April 4, 2021, is Microsoft's 46th birthday!</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c556eaf14e7888dab1569feac7a8a3ed\" tg-width=\"580\" tg-height=\"340\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>It has been 46 years since Bill Gates and Paul Allen founded Microsoft in 1975.</p><p>Like a 46-year-old middle-aged man, Microsoft finally survived the midlife crisis and returned to the high-profile and dazzling technology throne with a mature and low-key attitude.</p><p>In order to commemorate those years we walked together, Xiaobian rummaged through boxes and found out Microsoft's journey all the way.</p><p><b>The Rise of the Empire</b></p><p>When it comes to Microsoft, we have to start with Bill Gates, a man of the hour.</p><p>Bill Gates, 19, should be the most successful Harvard dropout.</p><p>In 1975, Bill Gates dropped out of Harvard University to sell with his high school alum Paul Allen. BASIC (Beginners' All-purpose Symbolic Instruction Code). BASIC is \"Beginner's General Symbolic Instruction Code\", a programming language designed for beginners.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e3b47fb0cff04e915c75dd116783ea1\" tg-width=\"919\" tg-height=\"611\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>While Gates was still studying at Harvard, they also programmed languages for MITS' Altair.</p><p>Later, Gates and Allen moved to Albuquerque, New Mexico, USA, and founded Microsoft in a local hotel room. In the early days of the company's founding, the main business of modifying BASIC programs continued to grow.</p><p>So, do you know how Microsoft got its name?</p><p>The word Microsoft consists of two parts: \"Microcomputer\" and \"software\".</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd1624aa9d27000141305dda2459fa51\" tg-width=\"480\" tg-height=\"288\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>If you know DOS, this will fully reveal your age!</p><p>In the 1980s,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IBM\">IBM</a>The company chose Microsoft to write key operating system software for its new PC-a major turning point in Microsoft's development.</p><p>But because of the time crunch and the complexity of the program, Microsoft paid $50,000 from a Seattle programmer<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDCO\">Patterson</a>I bought the right to use an operating system and rewrote it into disk operating system software (MS-DOS).</p><p>MS-DOS is just a single-user and single-task operating system. Windows 95, Windows 98 and Windows Me are based on DOS as the operating system carrier.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3eb22081c598a5e266f2c4c9401296b4\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"450\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The popularization of MS-DOS in IBM-PC has achieved great success. Other PC manufacturers wanted to be compatible with IBM, so in the 1980s, it became the standard operating system for PCs.</p><p>In 1995, at the age of 39, Gates rose to the top of the world's richest man with a net worth of $12.9 billion. Microsoft had $5.9 billion in sales and 17,801 employees that year.</p><p>In fact, from 1995 to 2007, Gates ranked number one on Forbes' list of the richest people in the world for 13 consecutive years, becoming the biggest winner in his life.</p><p>Cross-Century Masterpiece: Windows</p><p>On November 10, 1983, the Windows operating system made its debut. The product is an evolved version of the MS-DOS operating system and provides a graphical user interface.</p><p>Microsoft Windows 1.0 was officially launched in 1985, ending the command line era of Microsoft's operating system.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1254e9ffec99643fce081d8cf482fe86\" tg-width=\"770\" tg-height=\"578\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Unlike Windows, MS-DOS operates by using commands, and the system runs the program according to the commands entered by the user.</p><p>While Windows 1.0 allows users to point and click to access Windows instead of typing MS-DOS commands.</p><p>The Windows 1.0 operating system released by Microsoft is actually an extension of MS-DOS, which was not welcomed at that time. With continuous iterations, Windows 3.0 finally ushered in its initial victory.</p><p>It was late 1989 and Microsoft was working hard to finalize the best version of Windows it knew to date.</p><p>Windows 3.0 bets heavily on the graphical user interface with a new 3D bevel design and shiny new icons.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6ccb74506a615c95fede98719e5a01e7\" tg-width=\"650\" tg-height=\"400\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>It's an exciting product, as Microsoft said at the time.</p><p>After more than twenty years of development, Microsoft released the Windows 10 operating system that everyone is using today on July 29, 2015.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/737fb0e0e36329d02dda162f6217873e\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"607\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>The end of the king</b></p><p>Microsoft in the Ballmer era lost again and again.</p><p>In 2000, Bill Gates handed over the CEO position to Steve Ballmer, who had been in charge of the company's operations and day-to-day management,</p><p>Also created a new position for myself: Chief Software Architect.</p><p>Until 2008, Ballmer succeeded Gates as president of Microsoft. In the 13 years at the helm, although Ballmer led Microsoft to achieve excellent results: three times the number of employees, four times the annual revenue and ten times the annual profit.</p><p>However, as Microsoft's second CEO, Ballmer has suffered a lot of criticism.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/47a1c1c6a3202fad77c2295afba1941b\" tg-width=\"611\" tg-height=\"350\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>He led Microsoft's repeated attempts to fail. Windows Phone was strangled by iOS and Android, Windows 8 was frequently criticized, and cloud computing was difficult to break through.</p><p>During Ballmer's tenure as CEO, Microsoft's enormous potential has permeated every aspect of the software world, and it is simply invincible,</p><p>Windows's share of the PC operating system market exceeds 90%, and Microsoft's huge influence has put great pressure on its software peers, pushing itself into the position of defendant in antitrust law.</p><p><b>Empire Strikes Back: Return of the Age of Kings</b></p><p>In 2014, Satya Nadella, a 46-year-old Indian, officially took over as Microsoft's third CEO.</p><p>At that time, Microsoft was like a twilight giant, unable to keep up with the pace of the times, but Nadella directed the great revival of Microsoft by himself.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7712e4be90659dbfcbf9846d854a78f4\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"561\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Nadella not only transformed Microsoft's business strategy, but also reformed Microsoft's corporate culture. He has been working to change the way Microsoft operates by changing the way it thinks.</p><p>By now, Microsoft's market value has reached $1.83 trillion.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3c1f2c20c30d838a32a1308b380d46a2\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"749\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In the next five years, Nadella led Microsoft to find its way again.</p><p>Microsoft axed former CEO Ballmer's $7.2 billion acquisition<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NOK\">Nokia</a>The mobile phone business, announced the largest layoffs in history, with layoffs accounting for 14% of the company's global workforce of more than 120,000 people.</p><p>All these trade-offs are all to focus the development on cloud services.</p><p>Under Nadella's leadership, Microsoft cut the budget of its Windows division and built a huge cloud computing business-Microsoft Azure.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/21984c7ce006e141c0b3fc7c52ef93b5\" tg-width=\"902\" tg-height=\"528\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Currently, Microsoft's cloud platform Azure has won the favor of many large enterprise customers.</p><p>Office, our Office productivity software, is also gradually becoming a cloud service. It has gained more than 214 million subscribers, and these users pay a subscription fee of $99 each year.</p><p>In the eyes of Microsoft internal employees, Nadella's transformation of corporate culture has contributed a lot to the company's revival!</p><p>Microsoft, left by the previous CEO, is in a serious internal fight, with executives fighting for power and teams shirking responsibility when they encounter problems.</p><p>In \"Refresh-Rediscovering Business and the Future,\" Nadella bluntly said, \"Business strategy transformation is not his first priority as Microsoft CEO. The CEO is the CEO, but also the cultural executive.\"</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6fccecc75731bd7c7a26ad4906aa6762\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"443\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>He inspired Microsoft employees to become \"learn-it-all\" people.</p><p>From Windows to the cloud, Nadella transformed Microsoft's chariot and achieved Microsoft's market value of trillion dollars.</p><p>Microsoft is 46 years old, and it is still king when it returns.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/EG0UhC7JbuuFF6EcdIBbpg\">新智元</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/556acfb895c7cc721517dba494c0775b","relate_stocks":{"MSFT":"微软"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/EG0UhC7JbuuFF6EcdIBbpg","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1148759697","content_text":"距离1975年4月4日比尔·盖茨与保罗·艾伦创办微软以来，已经过去了46个年头。微软一路走来，崛起，落幕再到反击，一步步地完成华丽蜕变。\n2021年4月4日，是微软46周岁的生日！\n\n距离1975年比尔·盖茨(Bill Gates)与保罗·艾伦(Paul Allen)创办微软，已经过去了46个年头。\n就像46岁的中年人，微软终于熬过了中年危机，以成熟低调的姿态重回高调耀眼的科技王座。\n为了纪念共同走过的那些岁月，小编翻箱倒柜，找出了微软一路走来的历程。\n帝国的崛起\n提到微软，还得从比尔·盖茨这一风云人物说起。\n19岁的比尔·盖茨应该是最成功的哈佛辍学者。\n1975年，比尔·盖茨从哈佛大学退学，和他的高中校友保罗·艾伦一起卖BASIC（Beginners' All-purpose Symbolic Instruction Code）。BASIC是「初学者通用符号指令代码」，是一种设计给初学者使用的程序设计语言。\n\n当盖茨还在哈佛读书时，他们还曾为MITS公司的Altair编制语言。\n后来，盖茨和艾伦搬到美国新墨西哥州阿尔伯克基，并在当地一家旅馆房间里创建了微软公司，公司创立初期以修改BASIC程序为主要业务继续发展。\n那么，你知道Microsoft这个名字如何得来的吗？\nMicrosoft一词由「Microcomputer」和「software」两部分组成。\n\n如果你知道DOS，这会充分暴露你的年龄！\n20世纪80年代，IBM公司选中微软为其新PC编写关键的操作系统软件——这成为微软发展中的一个重大转折点。\n但是由于当时时间紧迫，程序复杂，微软便以5万美元的价格从西雅图的一位程序编制者帕特森手中买下了一个操作系统的使用权，再把它改写为磁盘操作系统软件（MS-DOS）。\nMS-DOS只是一个单用户单任务的操作系统，像Windows 95、Windows 98和Windows Me等正是以DOS为操作系统载体。\n\nMS-DOS在IBM-PC机的普及取得了巨大的成功。其他的PC制造者都希望与IBM兼容，因此80年代，它成了PC机的标准操作系统。\n1995年，正值39岁的盖茨以129亿美元身价登顶世界首富的王座。微软当年销售收入为59亿美元，员工达到了17801人。\n实际上从1995年到2007年，盖茨连续13年《福布斯》全球首富排行榜第一，成为最大的人生赢家。\n跨世纪大作：Windows\n1983年11月10日，Windows操作系统首次登台亮相。该产品是MS-DOS操作系统的演进版，并提供了图形用户界面。\nMicrosoft Windows 1.0 于1985年正式推出，结束了微软操作系统的命令行时代。\n\n与Windows不同，MS-DOS通过使用命令来进行操作，系统根据用户输入的命令进行程序的运行。\n而Windows 1.0允许用户指向并单击以访问Windows，而不是键入MS-DOS命令。\n微软发布的Windows 1.0操作系统其实就是对MS-DOS的扩展，在当时没有受到欢迎。随着不断迭代，Windows 3.0终于迎来了最初的胜利。\n那是1989年末，微软正在努力工作，最终敲定了它所知道的迄今为止最好的Windows版本。\nWindows 3.0版通过一个新的3D斜面设计和闪亮的新图标在图形用户界面上投下了重注。\n\n正如微软当时所说，这是一个令人兴奋的产品。\n经过二十多年的发展，微软在2015年7月29日发布了如今大家都在使用的Windows 10操作系统。\n\n王者的落幕\n鲍尔默时代的微软一败再败。\n2000年比尔·盖茨把首席执行官的位置交给了曾经负责公司运营和日常管理的史蒂夫·鲍尔默，\n还给自己创建了一个新的职位：首席软件构架师。\n直到2008年，鲍尔默接替盖茨成为微软的总裁。在执掌微软的13年间，虽然鲍尔默带领微软创下了优秀的成绩：员工数增加3倍，年营收增长4倍，年利润增长10倍。\n但是，作为微软的第二任 CEO，鲍尔默遭受过很多的批评。\n\n他带领着微软的屡次尝试多以失败告终，Windows Phone 遭 iOS、Android 绞杀，Windows 8 频遭诟病，云计算难于突破。\n在鲍尔默出任微软CEO期间，微软的巨大潜力已经渗透到了软件界的方方面面，简直是所向披靡，\nWindows在PC操作系统市场的份额超过90%，微软的巨大影响已经对软件同行构成了极大的压力，把自己推上了反垄断法的被告位置。\n帝国反击：王者时代的归来\n2014年，一位46岁的印度人——萨蒂亚·纳德拉(Satya Nadella)正式接任微软第三任CEO。\n那时的微软犹如一个迟暮的巨人，难以追逐时代的步伐，而纳德拉却一手导演了微软的伟大复兴。\n\n纳德拉不仅仅是转变了微软的商业策略，还改革了微软的企业文化。他一直致力于通过改变微软的思维方式改变其运作方式。\n到现在，微软市值已经达1.83万亿美元。\n\n此后的5年中，纳德拉带领微软重新找到了方向。\n微软裁撤了前CEO鲍尔默以72亿美元收购的诺基亚手机业务，宣布历史上最大规模的裁员，裁员人数占该公司全球12多万名员工总数的14%。\n这一切取舍，全是为了将开发重心放在云端服务上。\n在纳德拉的领导下，微软削减了Windows部门的预算，并且建立了一个庞大的云计算业务——Microsoft Azure。\n\n目前，微软的云平台Azure赢得了许多大型企业客户的青睐。\n我们办公生产力软件Office也逐渐成为一个云服务，它获得了超过2.14亿订阅用户，这些用户每年都要缴纳99美元的订阅费。\n在微软内部员工看来，公司的复兴，纳德拉对企业文化的改造功不可没！\n上任CEO留下的微软正处于严重内斗之中，高管争权，团队之间遇到问题相互推卸责任。\n在《刷新——重新发现商业与未来》一书中，纳德拉直言，「商业策略转型并非他作为微软CEO的第一要务，CEO是首席执行官，更是文化执行官。」\n\n他激励微软员工成为「无所不学」（learn-it-all）的人。\n从Windows到云，纳德拉改造微软战车，成就了微软万亿美元市值。\n微软46岁，归来仍是王者。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"MSFT":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5018,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":340031505,"gmtCreate":1617321307907,"gmtModify":1704698689434,"author":{"id":"3557305548001793","authorId":"3557305548001793","name":"Ikhas","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a0fd7b69b3c00ecf9cc780ede0cf5943","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3557305548001793","idStr":"3557305548001793"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"industry revolution","listText":"industry revolution","text":"industry revolution","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/340031505","repostId":"357228638","repostType":1,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":6976,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":354125869,"gmtCreate":1617153133451,"gmtModify":1704696459687,"author":{"id":"3557305548001793","authorId":"3557305548001793","name":"Ikhas","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a0fd7b69b3c00ecf9cc780ede0cf5943","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3557305548001793","idStr":"3557305548001793"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"the sun also risesthe moonlight silvers again","listText":"the sun also risesthe moonlight silvers again","text":"the sun also risesthe moonlight silvers again","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/354125869","repostId":"1154547844","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1154547844","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"秦朔朋友圈是由中国著名媒体人、财经观察家秦朔牵头创立的一个新媒体与专业服务品牌，包括微信公众号、微博、视频节目、音频节目等。内容聚焦于经济、金融和商业领域，关注重点为全球和中国财经商业热点、企业家精神、创新与发明创造、商业文明探索等。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"秦朔朋友圈","id":"60","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/707686f07ebc41778130c729f4eea24e"},"pubTimestamp":1617064468,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1154547844?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-03-30 08:34","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Again, when April is sensitive every year, Hong Kong stocks face three major pressures","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1154547844","media":"秦朔朋友圈","summary":"香港市场即将迎来4月初的复活节长假。根据个人经验，香港市场在“复活节”假期之后，往往会出现较大的波动，因此该月通常在我看来是一个“敏感月”，是一个尤其需要小心行事的月份。从香港4月的长假名称，也能看到4月有多令人摸不着北——先是耶稣受难日，然后又是复活节。究竟4月之后，是受难还是复活，不小心翼翼处理的话，真是很难判断。其次，和往年4月不同的是，2021年的4月增加了中概股的退市风波。","content":"<p>The Hong Kong market is about to usher in the long Easter holiday in early April. From personal experience, the Hong Kong market tends to be more volatile after the \"Easter\" holiday, so this month usually seems to me to be a \"sensitive month\" and one that needs to be treated with particular caution.</p><p>From the name of Hong Kong's long holiday in April, we can also see how invisible April is-first Good Friday, then Easter. It is really difficult to judge whether it will be crucifixion or resurrection after April if it is handled carefully.</p><p><b>Causes of sensitive months</b></p><p>April is a sensitive month for several reasons:</p><p>First, during the Easter holiday, it is easy to accumulate a large amount of news, but it is impossible to trade. Therefore, after the holiday, it may cause trading congestion in a short time, and it is often easy to form an excessive stress market under the information flood. By then, the market is likely to be too optimistic or too pessimistic, depending on the specific content of the information flow at that time.</p><p>Second, there is usually a saying in the Hong Kong market that \"five poor, six absolute and seven turn over\", that is, May and June are often the months when Hong Kong stocks adjust or transactions shrink. In this case, if you use the thinking of relative performance, it is best to lighten your positions on rallies in April, or at least you should not be overly aggressive.</p><p>Third, from the perspective of economic logic, because the results of the previous year are usually announced in March, and they will basically end until April. Usually, under the whitewashing effect of the performance of listed companies, the market trend will not be too bad. However, after mid-April, with the basic disclosure of the performance of listed companies, the whitewashing effect of performance gradually faded. At this time, the market will show the trend it should have.</p><p>Looking through the WIND database, we will find that since 2008, looking at the monthly performance of the Hang Seng Index, April and May often show opposite trends, and the frequency of closing up in April is greater than that of closing down. It is easy to understand that before the \"five poor\", big households can make a wave of pull-up moves first, and then backhand short, and both sides harvest the profits.</p><p>But in April 2021, will the Hang Seng Index close higher again? However, the author doesn't feel very optimistic. April 2021 is very different from usual, and here are the explanations one by one.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/01bfd16d070851ad20bf3352a6a294c9\" tg-width=\"800\" tg-height=\"533\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>The pattern of \"head and shoulder top\" cannot be ignored</b></p><p>First of all, from a technical point of view, the Hang Seng Index has formed a \"head and shoulder top\" and wore a \"neckline\" last Tuesday (March 23rd). Many readers don't like to use technical indicators, especially the fundamentalist believers of \"value investment\", who often disdain to listen to technical analysis.</p><p>From my experience, fundamental analysis and technical analysis are indispensable. I do research on alternative investment theory and practice. Many specific alternative assets (such as stock index futures, commodity futures, gold, and even the recent popular Bitcoin) need to be disassembled by fundamental analysis methods-for example, when analyzing Bitcoin, we should not only look at the price trend of Bitcoin, but also analyze the security, liquidity, stability of bit networks and the acceptance of digital currency.</p><p>However, when judging the price direction of this asset specifically, it is still necessary to rely on technical analysis, especially when analyzing the market trend. Past cases of personal experience keep reminding me:<b>The more efficient the market and the more liquid the financial products, the more effective the analysis of technical indicators</b>— — Hang Seng Index is just such a product, so technical analysis can completely explain the behavior of current investment groups, and even have a certain forward-looking prediction effect.</p><p>Speaking of \"head and shoulder top\", readers who are not interested in technical analysis need not go deep, but at least they should know that once this form is confirmed, the market outlook of Hang Seng Index will probably be sharply adjusted-if it is confirmed to fall from the \"right shoulder\" position, the position that it may fall after adjustment will be counted from the right shoulder falling position, which is the vertical distance from the top (head) to the neckline (the line connecting two shoulders). From this perspective, the Hang Seng Index will probably fall to the range of 25,700~26,000 next step.</p><p>From a practical point of view, the shape of the head and shoulders also means that even if Hong Kong stocks rebound recently, it is a good opportunity to lighten positions at rallies, not a good opportunity to build positions.</p><p>Why do Hong Kong stocks have head and shoulder tops? This question is not important for technical analysis, because the premise of technical analysis is that price already contains all the information (efficient market hypothesis). Of course, we can dig up a lot of reasons if we dig deeper, but that's not the point of this article anymore.</p><p>By the way, although the overall technical trend of Hong Kong stocks has deteriorated, the author still does not recommend that you short Hong Kong stocks. Because there are many risk factors in short selling, it is not easy to make money, and it is not something that ordinary investors can easily master. A while ago, Wall Street hedge funds were collectively short-rolled, which is a good example.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df28ee4a6bd605e81928c8bcc2a42bde\" tg-width=\"839\" tg-height=\"579\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>The crisis of Chinese stocks will also impact Hong Kong stocks</b></p><p>Secondly, unlike April of previous years, April 2021 increased the delisting storm of Chinese stocks.</p><p>According to the news of Hong Kong Singularity Finance on March 27th, Chinese concept stocks listed in the United States were washed again last Friday (March 26th) -this is the third consecutive time in a week that the whole sector has suffered a heavy drop. Among them,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">Baidu</a>(BIDU.O) stock price plunged 14.9% during the intraday session, reaching a low of $174.05;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TME\">Tencent Music</a>(TME.N) plunged by 19.8% to a full-day low of $16.31 on the same day, down 49.4% from the record high of $32.25 just set last Tuesday. In just a few days, nearly half of the market value has been erased.</p><p>Another disaster-affected unit<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IQ\">iQIYI</a>(IQ.O) plunged 27.2% to $14.6 during the session; While<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GSX\">Who to learn from</a>(GSX.N) was also halved, with shares hitting a low of $29.4 (the level at the end of May 2020).</p><p>The culprit is the Foreign Holding Company Liability Act (HFCA Act) passed by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). The bill requires foreign listed companies to also submit all disclosed materials and information in accordance with U.S. audit requirements, and if foreign companies do not comply, they will be required to delist from U.S. exchanges.</p><p>SEC announced on March 24th that the above-mentioned bill also requires listed companies to disclose additional sensitive information: including the percentage of shares controlled by the host country's government, whether the government has control over the company's financial interests, whether there are party members in the board of directors or executives of listed companies, and whether the company's articles of association are affected by the Party Constitution.</p><p>These rules are equivalent to the implementation of the Foreign Company Accountability Act signed by former US President Donald Trump in December 2020 (Holding Foreign Companies Accountable Act).</p><p>The provisions are ostensibly aimed at all foreign companies listed in the United States, but in reality they are mainly aimed at China.<b>Because China has not yet allowed Chinese enterprises to disclose their audit papers to overseas audit institutions without restrictions, unless China and the United States can reach a new audit supervision cooperation agreement in the near future, many Chinese concept stocks listed in the United States may face the risk of delisting on American exchanges.</b></p><p>You may expect that under the pressure of the United States, more Chinese stock companies will return to A shares or go to Hong Kong, China to list. However, the \"secondary listing\" of Chinese stock companies in Hong Kong is based on listing in the United States. If they are forced to delist from the United States, it is still unconcluded how the HKEx will handle these Chinese stock companies.</p><p>However, if a Chinese stock company re-applies for listing in Hong Kong, China in the form of IPO, it will have to go through a lengthy listing process, which will not constitute an obvious benefit to Hong Kong stocks in the near future.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/92d1e37c4b2e38d3609030f76c73bf81\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"683\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Pressure of Macro Factors on Hong Kong Stocks</b></p><p>Third, interest rates and currency issues. Another very special thing in April 2021 is that the U.S. economy showed obvious signs of recovery. The yield of U.S. 10-year bonds repeatedly hit new highs, and the the US Dollar Index also rose strongly. Neither indicator is good for investors outside the United States.</p><p>Since 2008, investors around the world have long been accustomed to an excessively loose liquidity environment, and now they suddenly find that liquidity is contracting spontaneously-which is tantamount to forcing major institutions to start demanding higher returns from various assets in the market. In particular, if the US Dollar Index confirms a strong rebound, it will force investors to consider withdrawing funds from emerging markets such as Hong Kong and flowing them to the United States, where the currency appreciation trend is obvious.</p><p>However, what is more difficult to decide is that the fundamental factors so far do not support the strength of the US dollar-including the continued loose US monetary policy; The Fed's unprecedented broad quantitative easing measures; The widening U.S. fiscal deficit, etc., are clearly telling the market that it is necessary to maintain the view of the devaluation of the dollar. In this case, there is a divergence between fundamentals and actual price movements in the short term, which casts uncertainty in judging asset prices in Hong Kong.</p><p>As for the Treasury Bond interest rate in the United States, the 10-year bond interest rate trend so far mainly reflects the forward-looking expectation of the market, that is, in the medium term, the monetary policy of the United States is likely to change. The market's expected timing of the Fed's first rate hike in the future has been advanced from 2024 to the beginning of 2023.</p><p>Since the beginning of this year, the 10-year interest rate of the United States has steadily climbed above the 1.5% level before the outbreak of the epidemic in early 2020. Next, will it further rise to the 2.0% level at the end of 2019, and will this interest rate trend further drive the upward trend of the US dollar? This will directly affect the direction of global investors' asset allocation in US dollars.</p><p>None of the above three factors is sensitive and important. Therefore, in April, it was suggested that everyone should be more sensitive to market information.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Again, when April is sensitive every year, Hong Kong stocks face three major pressures</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAgain, when April is sensitive every year, Hong Kong stocks face three major pressures\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/60\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/707686f07ebc41778130c729f4eea24e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">秦朔朋友圈 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-03-30 08:34</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>The Hong Kong market is about to usher in the long Easter holiday in early April. From personal experience, the Hong Kong market tends to be more volatile after the \"Easter\" holiday, so this month usually seems to me to be a \"sensitive month\" and one that needs to be treated with particular caution.</p><p>From the name of Hong Kong's long holiday in April, we can also see how invisible April is-first Good Friday, then Easter. It is really difficult to judge whether it will be crucifixion or resurrection after April if it is handled carefully.</p><p><b>Causes of sensitive months</b></p><p>April is a sensitive month for several reasons:</p><p>First, during the Easter holiday, it is easy to accumulate a large amount of news, but it is impossible to trade. Therefore, after the holiday, it may cause trading congestion in a short time, and it is often easy to form an excessive stress market under the information flood. By then, the market is likely to be too optimistic or too pessimistic, depending on the specific content of the information flow at that time.</p><p>Second, there is usually a saying in the Hong Kong market that \"five poor, six absolute and seven turn over\", that is, May and June are often the months when Hong Kong stocks adjust or transactions shrink. In this case, if you use the thinking of relative performance, it is best to lighten your positions on rallies in April, or at least you should not be overly aggressive.</p><p>Third, from the perspective of economic logic, because the results of the previous year are usually announced in March, and they will basically end until April. Usually, under the whitewashing effect of the performance of listed companies, the market trend will not be too bad. However, after mid-April, with the basic disclosure of the performance of listed companies, the whitewashing effect of performance gradually faded. At this time, the market will show the trend it should have.</p><p>Looking through the WIND database, we will find that since 2008, looking at the monthly performance of the Hang Seng Index, April and May often show opposite trends, and the frequency of closing up in April is greater than that of closing down. It is easy to understand that before the \"five poor\", big households can make a wave of pull-up moves first, and then backhand short, and both sides harvest the profits.</p><p>But in April 2021, will the Hang Seng Index close higher again? However, the author doesn't feel very optimistic. April 2021 is very different from usual, and here are the explanations one by one.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/01bfd16d070851ad20bf3352a6a294c9\" tg-width=\"800\" tg-height=\"533\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>The pattern of \"head and shoulder top\" cannot be ignored</b></p><p>First of all, from a technical point of view, the Hang Seng Index has formed a \"head and shoulder top\" and wore a \"neckline\" last Tuesday (March 23rd). Many readers don't like to use technical indicators, especially the fundamentalist believers of \"value investment\", who often disdain to listen to technical analysis.</p><p>From my experience, fundamental analysis and technical analysis are indispensable. I do research on alternative investment theory and practice. Many specific alternative assets (such as stock index futures, commodity futures, gold, and even the recent popular Bitcoin) need to be disassembled by fundamental analysis methods-for example, when analyzing Bitcoin, we should not only look at the price trend of Bitcoin, but also analyze the security, liquidity, stability of bit networks and the acceptance of digital currency.</p><p>However, when judging the price direction of this asset specifically, it is still necessary to rely on technical analysis, especially when analyzing the market trend. Past cases of personal experience keep reminding me:<b>The more efficient the market and the more liquid the financial products, the more effective the analysis of technical indicators</b>— — Hang Seng Index is just such a product, so technical analysis can completely explain the behavior of current investment groups, and even have a certain forward-looking prediction effect.</p><p>Speaking of \"head and shoulder top\", readers who are not interested in technical analysis need not go deep, but at least they should know that once this form is confirmed, the market outlook of Hang Seng Index will probably be sharply adjusted-if it is confirmed to fall from the \"right shoulder\" position, the position that it may fall after adjustment will be counted from the right shoulder falling position, which is the vertical distance from the top (head) to the neckline (the line connecting two shoulders). From this perspective, the Hang Seng Index will probably fall to the range of 25,700~26,000 next step.</p><p>From a practical point of view, the shape of the head and shoulders also means that even if Hong Kong stocks rebound recently, it is a good opportunity to lighten positions at rallies, not a good opportunity to build positions.</p><p>Why do Hong Kong stocks have head and shoulder tops? This question is not important for technical analysis, because the premise of technical analysis is that price already contains all the information (efficient market hypothesis). Of course, we can dig up a lot of reasons if we dig deeper, but that's not the point of this article anymore.</p><p>By the way, although the overall technical trend of Hong Kong stocks has deteriorated, the author still does not recommend that you short Hong Kong stocks. Because there are many risk factors in short selling, it is not easy to make money, and it is not something that ordinary investors can easily master. A while ago, Wall Street hedge funds were collectively short-rolled, which is a good example.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df28ee4a6bd605e81928c8bcc2a42bde\" tg-width=\"839\" tg-height=\"579\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>The crisis of Chinese stocks will also impact Hong Kong stocks</b></p><p>Secondly, unlike April of previous years, April 2021 increased the delisting storm of Chinese stocks.</p><p>According to the news of Hong Kong Singularity Finance on March 27th, Chinese concept stocks listed in the United States were washed again last Friday (March 26th) -this is the third consecutive time in a week that the whole sector has suffered a heavy drop. Among them,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">Baidu</a>(BIDU.O) stock price plunged 14.9% during the intraday session, reaching a low of $174.05;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TME\">Tencent Music</a>(TME.N) plunged by 19.8% to a full-day low of $16.31 on the same day, down 49.4% from the record high of $32.25 just set last Tuesday. In just a few days, nearly half of the market value has been erased.</p><p>Another disaster-affected unit<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IQ\">iQIYI</a>(IQ.O) plunged 27.2% to $14.6 during the session; While<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GSX\">Who to learn from</a>(GSX.N) was also halved, with shares hitting a low of $29.4 (the level at the end of May 2020).</p><p>The culprit is the Foreign Holding Company Liability Act (HFCA Act) passed by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). The bill requires foreign listed companies to also submit all disclosed materials and information in accordance with U.S. audit requirements, and if foreign companies do not comply, they will be required to delist from U.S. exchanges.</p><p>SEC announced on March 24th that the above-mentioned bill also requires listed companies to disclose additional sensitive information: including the percentage of shares controlled by the host country's government, whether the government has control over the company's financial interests, whether there are party members in the board of directors or executives of listed companies, and whether the company's articles of association are affected by the Party Constitution.</p><p>These rules are equivalent to the implementation of the Foreign Company Accountability Act signed by former US President Donald Trump in December 2020 (Holding Foreign Companies Accountable Act).</p><p>The provisions are ostensibly aimed at all foreign companies listed in the United States, but in reality they are mainly aimed at China.<b>Because China has not yet allowed Chinese enterprises to disclose their audit papers to overseas audit institutions without restrictions, unless China and the United States can reach a new audit supervision cooperation agreement in the near future, many Chinese concept stocks listed in the United States may face the risk of delisting on American exchanges.</b></p><p>You may expect that under the pressure of the United States, more Chinese stock companies will return to A shares or go to Hong Kong, China to list. However, the \"secondary listing\" of Chinese stock companies in Hong Kong is based on listing in the United States. If they are forced to delist from the United States, it is still unconcluded how the HKEx will handle these Chinese stock companies.</p><p>However, if a Chinese stock company re-applies for listing in Hong Kong, China in the form of IPO, it will have to go through a lengthy listing process, which will not constitute an obvious benefit to Hong Kong stocks in the near future.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/92d1e37c4b2e38d3609030f76c73bf81\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"683\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Pressure of Macro Factors on Hong Kong Stocks</b></p><p>Third, interest rates and currency issues. Another very special thing in April 2021 is that the U.S. economy showed obvious signs of recovery. The yield of U.S. 10-year bonds repeatedly hit new highs, and the the US Dollar Index also rose strongly. Neither indicator is good for investors outside the United States.</p><p>Since 2008, investors around the world have long been accustomed to an excessively loose liquidity environment, and now they suddenly find that liquidity is contracting spontaneously-which is tantamount to forcing major institutions to start demanding higher returns from various assets in the market. In particular, if the US Dollar Index confirms a strong rebound, it will force investors to consider withdrawing funds from emerging markets such as Hong Kong and flowing them to the United States, where the currency appreciation trend is obvious.</p><p>However, what is more difficult to decide is that the fundamental factors so far do not support the strength of the US dollar-including the continued loose US monetary policy; The Fed's unprecedented broad quantitative easing measures; The widening U.S. fiscal deficit, etc., are clearly telling the market that it is necessary to maintain the view of the devaluation of the dollar. In this case, there is a divergence between fundamentals and actual price movements in the short term, which casts uncertainty in judging asset prices in Hong Kong.</p><p>As for the Treasury Bond interest rate in the United States, the 10-year bond interest rate trend so far mainly reflects the forward-looking expectation of the market, that is, in the medium term, the monetary policy of the United States is likely to change. The market's expected timing of the Fed's first rate hike in the future has been advanced from 2024 to the beginning of 2023.</p><p>Since the beginning of this year, the 10-year interest rate of the United States has steadily climbed above the 1.5% level before the outbreak of the epidemic in early 2020. Next, will it further rise to the 2.0% level at the end of 2019, and will this interest rate trend further drive the upward trend of the US dollar? This will directly affect the direction of global investors' asset allocation in US dollars.</p><p>None of the above three factors is sensitive and important. Therefore, in April, it was suggested that everyone should be more sensitive to market information.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c1cb237e736a4e03c939622e7b71e8e7","relate_stocks":{"HSI":"恒生指数","HSTECH":"恒生科技指数"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1154547844","content_text":"香港市场即将迎来4月初的复活节长假。根据个人经验，香港市场在“复活节”假期之后，往往会出现较大的波动，因此该月通常在我看来是一个“敏感月”，是一个尤其需要小心行事的月份。\n从香港4月的长假名称，也能看到4月有多令人摸不着北——先是耶稣受难日，然后又是复活节。究竟4月之后，是受难还是复活，不小心翼翼处理的话，真是很难判断。\n敏感月成因\n说4月是敏感月，有几个原因：\n一是复活节长假，容易累积大量的消息，但却无法进行交易，因此在节后有可能会在短期内造成交易拥挤，往往容易形成信息洪流下的过度应激性行情。届时，市场很可能过于乐观，也可能过于悲观，具体还得看当时的信息流具体内容。\n二是香港市场通常有“五穷六绝七翻身”的说法，即5月和6月往往是港股调整或是成交萎缩的月份。在这种情况下，如果用相对表现的思维，4月最好是逢高减仓，至少是不应该过度进取。\n其三，从经济逻辑来看，因为通常3月开始公布上年度业绩，一直至4月才会基本上结束，通常在上市公司的业绩粉饰作用之下，市场走势不会太过恶劣。但4月中旬之后，随着上市公司的业绩基本披露完毕，业绩粉饰效果也逐步消退，这时候市场会再显本该有的走向。\n翻查WIND数据库就会发现，从2008年以来，看恒指的月度表现，4月与5月经常是呈现相反的走势，而且4月全月收涨的频率大于收跌的频率。想来也好理解，“五穷”之前，大户可以先来一波拉升的动作，然后才反手做空，两边收割收益。\n但是2021年的4月，恒指是否会再现收涨？笔者却觉得不太乐观。2021年的4月和往常有很大的不同，这里一一说明。\n\n“头肩顶”形态不容忽视\n首先是从技术上看，恒指已经形成“头肩顶”，并且在上周二（3月23日）下穿了“颈线”。很多读者不喜欢用技术指标，特别是“价值投资”的原教旨信徒，往往更不屑于听从技术分析。\n就本人的经验来说，基本面分析与技术面分析是缺一不可的。本人做的是另类投资理论与实践研究，很多具体的另类资产（比如股指期货、商品期货、黄金、甚至近期流行的比特币等）需要用基本面分析方法来拆解——比如在分析比特币的时候，不能只看比特币的价格走势，还要分析比特网络的安全性、流动性、稳定性以及数字货币被接受的程度等。\n但在具体判断该资产的价格方向时，还是得需要借助技术分析，在分析市场走向时尤其如此。过往亲身经历的案例不断提醒我：越是有效的市场，越是流动性强的金融产品，其技术指标分析就越是有效——恒指正是这样的一个产品，所以用技术分析完全可以解释当下投资群体的行为，甚至有一定的前瞻预测作用。\n说回“头肩顶”，没有兴趣做技术分析的读者可以不必深究，但至少要知道，一旦确认了这个形态，恒指的后市走向大概率会出现大幅调整——如果确认从“右肩”位置下跌，其调整后可能跌落的位置，会是从右肩下跌位置开始算起，幅跌是顶部（头部）到颈线（连接两个肩膀的线）的垂直距离。从这个角度来说，恒指下一步大概率要跌至25700～26000区间。\n就实践角度来说，头肩顶的形态也意味着，即便近期港股有所反弹，也是逢高减仓的好机会，而不是建仓的良机。\n港股为什么会出现头肩顶？这个问题对于技术分析来说并不重要，因为技术分析的前提就是价格已经包含了所有的信息（有效市场假说）。当然，如果深究下去，我们可以挖出很多原因，但这已经不是本文的重点了。\n顺便提一句，虽然港股整体技术走势转差，但笔者还是不建议大家做空港股。因为做空有诸多风险因素，并不容易赚钱，更不是普通投资者可以轻易掌握的。前阵子华尔街对冲基金被集体轧空仓，就是一个很好的例子。\n\n中概股危机也将冲击港股\n其次，和往年4月不同的是，2021年的4月增加了中概股的退市风波。\n根据香港奇点财经3月27日的消息，在美国上市的中国概念股于上周五（3月26日）再遭洗仓——这已是一周内连续第三次整个板块出现重挫。其中，百度（BIDU.O）盘中股价一度急泻14.9%，最低见174.05美元；腾讯音乐（TME.N）当天最多重挫19.8%至全日低位16.31美元，较上周二刚刚创下的历史新高32.25美元滑落49.4%，短短数日市值已经被抹去近半。\n另一受灾股爱奇艺（IQ.O）盘中一度急降27.2%至14.6美元；而跟谁学（GSX.N）也被腰斩，股价最低触及29.4美元（2020年5月底的水平）。\n罪魁祸首是美国证监会（SEC）通过的《外国控股公司责任法案》（HFCA Act）。该法案要求外国上市公司也要根据美国的审计要求，提交所有该披露的材料和信息，如果外国公司不遵守，将被要求从美国交易所退市。\nSEC3月24日公布，上述法案还要求上市公司额外披露一些敏感信息：包括所在国政府控制的股份百分比、政府是否对公司的财务权益有控制权、上市公司董事会或经营高管中是否有党员、公司章程是否受党章影响等。\n这些规则相当于执行了美前任总统特朗普在2020年12月签署落实的《外国公司问责法案（Holding Foreign Companies Accountable Act）》。\n有关条款，表面上是针对所有在美国挂牌的外国公司，但实际上主要针对中国。因为中国目前尚未允许中国企业将审计底稿不受限制地向境外审计机构予以披露，因此除非中美双方能在近期达成新的审计监管合作协议，否则在美上市的众多中概股，均可能将面临美国交易所除牌的风险。\n大家可能会憧憬，在美国的打压之下，将有更多中概股公司回A股或去中国香港上市，但是香港的中概股“第二上市”是以在美国上市为前提的，如果被迫从美国退市，港交所会如何处理这些中概股，目前还未见定论。\n而如果中概股公司以IPO形式重新申请在中国香港上市，则要走冗长的上市流程，这对近期港股并不构成明显的利好。\n\n宏观因素对港股的压力\n其三，利率与货币问题。2021年4月还有一个非常特殊的地方，就是美国的经济出现较明显的复苏迹象，美国10年期债券收益率屡创新高，美元指数也强劲上扬。而这两个指标，对于美国以外的投资者来说，都不是好现象。\n自2008年以来，全球的投资者早已习惯了过度宽松的流动性环境，现在突然发现流动性在自发地收缩——这无异于逼迫各大机构开始向市场上的各种资产索取更高的收益。特别是美元指数如果确认出现强劲反弹，更会逼迫投资者考虑，将资金从香港等新兴市场撤出，流向货币升值趋势明显的美国。\n但是比较难以决断的是，迄今为止的基本面因素都不支持美元走强——包括持续宽松的美国货币政策；美联储前所未有的广泛量化宽松措施；不断扩大的美国财政赤字等，这些都在清醒地告诉巿场，有必要继续维持对美元贬值的看法。在这种情况下，基本面和短期内的实际价格走势出现了背离，这为判断香港的资产价格投下了不确定性。\n至于美国国债利率，迄今为止的10年债息走势，主要体现出市场前瞻性的预期，即认为中期而言，美国的货币政策很有可能会出现变化。市场对美联储未来首次加息的预期时间点，已经从2024年，提前至2023年初。\n今年以来，美国10年债息已经稳稳地攀升至2020年初疫情暴发前1.5%水平上方，接下来，它是否会进一步上涨至2019年底的2.0%水平，以及，这种利率走势是否会进一步驱升美元升势？这会直接关系到全球投资者对于美元资产配置的方向。\n上述三个因素，没有一个不是敏感而重要的，因此，4月份建议大家需要更为敏感地应对市场信息。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"HSI":0.9,"HSTECH":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4326,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":355448012,"gmtCreate":1617099471236,"gmtModify":1704801955894,"author":{"id":"3557305548001793","authorId":"3557305548001793","name":"Ikhas","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a0fd7b69b3c00ecf9cc780ede0cf5943","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3557305548001793","idStr":"3557305548001793"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"infrastructure improvement hot","listText":"infrastructure improvement hot","text":"infrastructure improvement hot","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/355448012","repostId":"355053283","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":355053283,"gmtCreate":1617017572235,"gmtModify":1704800870033,"author":{"id":"3502860692623653","authorId":"3502860692623653","name":"爱上趋势股","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/17f4521614b0cae62aff9fa7fa80fa77","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3502860692623653","idStr":"3502860692623653"},"themes":[],"title":"美國“洪水四溢”，大基建勢在必行！","htmlText":"3月27日，中國和伊朗正式簽署一項爲期25年的協議，包括政治、戰略和經濟合作。 伊朗媒體報道，協議中重要的三條： 中國將增加對伊朗的基礎設施投資，提升伊朗整體國力； 中伊之間的石油和貿易往來，將使用人民幣和數字人民幣結算，避開美元； 伊朗的導彈，將使用“北斗”導航系統進行制導。 加上不久前的中俄外長會晤，這意味着中俄伊形成了亞歐大陸重要的“鐵三角”。此外，王部長還訪問了沙特、土耳其、伊朗、阿聯酋、巴林、阿曼六個中東國家，均得到了對中國的支持立場。 中東諸國對中國的支持，具有跨時代的重要意義，今天我們只講一些涉及金融的： 阿拉斯加會談打破了我們對美國最後的一絲希望：“我們把你們（美國）想的太好了” 我國外交由守轉攻，打破美國封鎖，給搖擺派、投降派、騎牆派以打擊，尤其是傲嬌的歐洲； 告訴美國佬，你們的通脹我們不吃了，愛印多少印多少吧！我要真的開始推動人民幣國際化了，先是俄羅斯、伊朗，剩下的再一個個來； 美國通脹預期飆升。 網上流傳一個段子： 一羣【印度人】開着【臺灣人】從【日本人】租來的【美國人】控股的船，掛着【巴拿馬人】的國旗，堵住了【埃及人】的蘇伊士運河，把【美國人】用來威脅【中國人】和【伊朗人】簽約的航母戰鬥羣堵在了地中海”——《到底誰是臥底》? 國運來了擋不住，說回股市，中伊這個協定，直接利好的三個板塊： 1、新疆 新疆以後對於我國的重要性越來越強；除了石油從這裏進來外，大量的高鐵、基建，還承載着我國的對外貿易。這也是爲啥，美國最近一直在新疆搞事情。 上週四，我在空間站裏提到的是<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600540\">$新賽股份(600540)$</a> 。今天，<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002941\">$新疆交建(002941)</a>","listText":"3月27日，中國和伊朗正式簽署一項爲期25年的協議，包括政治、戰略和經濟合作。 伊朗媒體報道，協議中重要的三條： 中國將增加對伊朗的基礎設施投資，提升伊朗整體國力； 中伊之間的石油和貿易往來，將使用人民幣和數字人民幣結算，避開美元； 伊朗的導彈，將使用“北斗”導航系統進行制導。 加上不久前的中俄外長會晤，這意味着中俄伊形成了亞歐大陸重要的“鐵三角”。此外，王部長還訪問了沙特、土耳其、伊朗、阿聯酋、巴林、阿曼六個中東國家，均得到了對中國的支持立場。 中東諸國對中國的支持，具有跨時代的重要意義，今天我們只講一些涉及金融的： 阿拉斯加會談打破了我們對美國最後的一絲希望：“我們把你們（美國）想的太好了” 我國外交由守轉攻，打破美國封鎖，給搖擺派、投降派、騎牆派以打擊，尤其是傲嬌的歐洲； 告訴美國佬，你們的通脹我們不吃了，愛印多少印多少吧！我要真的開始推動人民幣國際化了，先是俄羅斯、伊朗，剩下的再一個個來； 美國通脹預期飆升。 網上流傳一個段子： 一羣【印度人】開着【臺灣人】從【日本人】租來的【美國人】控股的船，掛着【巴拿馬人】的國旗，堵住了【埃及人】的蘇伊士運河，把【美國人】用來威脅【中國人】和【伊朗人】簽約的航母戰鬥羣堵在了地中海”——《到底誰是臥底》? 國運來了擋不住，說回股市，中伊這個協定，直接利好的三個板塊： 1、新疆 新疆以後對於我國的重要性越來越強；除了石油從這裏進來外，大量的高鐵、基建，還承載着我國的對外貿易。這也是爲啥，美國最近一直在新疆搞事情。 上週四，我在空間站裏提到的是<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600540\">$新賽股份(600540)$</a> 。今天，<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002941\">$新疆交建(002941)</a>","text":"3月27日，中國和伊朗正式簽署一項爲期25年的協議，包括政治、戰略和經濟合作。 伊朗媒體報道，協議中重要的三條： 中國將增加對伊朗的基礎設施投資，提升伊朗整體國力； 中伊之間的石油和貿易往來，將使用人民幣和數字人民幣結算，避開美元； 伊朗的導彈，將使用“北斗”導航系統進行制導。 加上不久前的中俄外長會晤，這意味着中俄伊形成了亞歐大陸重要的“鐵三角”。此外，王部長還訪問了沙特、土耳其、伊朗、阿聯酋、巴林、阿曼六個中東國家，均得到了對中國的支持立場。 中東諸國對中國的支持，具有跨時代的重要意義，今天我們只講一些涉及金融的： 阿拉斯加會談打破了我們對美國最後的一絲希望：“我們把你們（美國）想的太好了” 我國外交由守轉攻，打破美國封鎖，給搖擺派、投降派、騎牆派以打擊，尤其是傲嬌的歐洲； 告訴美國佬，你們的通脹我們不吃了，愛印多少印多少吧！我要真的開始推動人民幣國際化了，先是俄羅斯、伊朗，剩下的再一個個來； 美國通脹預期飆升。 網上流傳一個段子： 一羣【印度人】開着【臺灣人】從【日本人】租來的【美國人】控股的船，掛着【巴拿馬人】的國旗，堵住了【埃及人】的蘇伊士運河，把【美國人】用來威脅【中國人】和【伊朗人】簽約的航母戰鬥羣堵在了地中海”——《到底誰是臥底》? 國運來了擋不住，說回股市，中伊這個協定，直接利好的三個板塊： 1、新疆 新疆以後對於我國的重要性越來越強；除了石油從這裏進來外，大量的高鐵、基建，還承載着我國的對外貿易。這也是爲啥，美國最近一直在新疆搞事情。 上週四，我在空間站裏提到的是$新賽股份(600540)$ 。今天，$新疆交建(002941)","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/59094069d0ed0614d3ca11b3da3303cc","width":"639","height":"355"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7de5d44e70aa80c73d0620ee1f414374","width":"581","height":"198"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/01bdd6c7832cc18def7e66ab34030f7b","width":"904","height":"403"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/355053283","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":7,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4316,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":356720174,"gmtCreate":1616818042998,"gmtModify":1704799384273,"author":{"id":"3557305548001793","authorId":"3557305548001793","name":"Ikhas","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a0fd7b69b3c00ecf9cc780ede0cf5943","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3557305548001793","idStr":"3557305548001793"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"hope so","listText":"hope so","text":"hope so","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/356720174","repostId":"1190278634","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1190278634","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1616747205,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1190278634?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-03-26 16:26","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Market Overview: Hong Kong A rises together! BlackRock Singing Long Chinese Market, Cow Will Come Back?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1190278634","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"要闻1、央行今日开展100亿元逆回购操作，因今日有100亿元逆回购到期，当日实现零投放零回笼。本周，央行进行500亿元逆回购操作，因本周有500亿元逆回购到期，本周实现零投放零回笼。2、据中证报报道，","content":"<p><b>Important News</b></p><p>1. Today, the central bank launched a 10 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation. Because 10 billion yuan reverse repurchase expired today, it achieved zero investment and zero withdrawal on the same day. This week, the central bank carried out a 50 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation. Because 50 billion yuan reverse repurchase expired this week, it achieved zero investment and zero withdrawal this week.</p><p>2. According to China Securities Journal,<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BLK\">BlackRock</a>The Group believes that there is a good opportunity to enter the PRC market in the near future.</b>In terms of stocks, China's proportion in the global index is still low, and its proportion in the MSCI \"All Countries World Index\" (including offshore stocks) is still low. First of all, China's shift of economic development focus to improving the quality of economic growth is conducive to cultivating more high-quality companies in the long run. Secondly, China has big ambitions in meeting its climate goals, and many related industries are expected to benefit from climate policies.</p><p>3、<b>The procyclical plate of \"national team\" stock selection is a favorite.</b>According to China Securities Journal, with the gradual release of 2020 annual reports of listed companies, the shareholding of \"national teams\" such as social security funds has surfaced. Wind data shows that as of press time on March 25th, social security funds have appeared in the list of the top ten shareholders of tradable shares in the annual reports of 83 listed companies, continuing their preference for procyclical sectors such as chemicals and nonferrous metals in style. The heavy holdings of China Securities Finance Corporation, Central Huijin Asset Management Co., Ltd. and Central Huijin Investment Co., Ltd. are mostly concentrated in finance, energy and other sectors.</p><p><b>Hong Kong stock</b></p><p>The three major indices of Hong Kong stocks closed higher across the board, with large technology stocks performing actively, and the theme sectors generally rose. As of the close, the Hang Seng Index rose 1.57% to 28,336 points, the HSI rose 2.06% to 10,966 points, and the Hang Seng Technology Index rose 2.33% to 8,129 points.</p><p>On the disk, Xiaomi, a large technology stock, once rose by 10% to close by 6.28%, and Meituan rose by 5%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">Tencent</a>up 2.3%, but<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba</a>fell by more than 2%; Property management stocks broke out again,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02669\">China Overseas Property</a>Soaring over 25%, tobacco concept stocks rebounded strongly, wind power stocks, automobile stocks, dairy products, photovoltaic stocks, port and shipping stocks, catering stocks, etc. generally rose; Sporting goods stocks maintained yesterday's strong market, with Anta rising nearly 6% and over 15% on the 2nd; However, a few sectors of SaaS stocks and online education stocks were lower.</p><p>Today, the net inflow of funds going south is HK$ 7.008 billion, and the turnover of the market has not been enlarged, with a turnover of HK$ 183.9 billion throughout the day.</p><p>Xiaomi rose 6.28%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02333\">Great Wall Motors</a>Up 10.38%, market news said, millet is in talks to use<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601633\">Great Wall Motors</a>Factory, which makes electric vehicles, could announce the partnership as soon as next week. In response to the news that \"Xiaomi is negotiating with Great Wall Motor to produce electric vehicles and plans to announce cooperation as soon as next week\", Xu Jieyun, former general manager of Xiaomi Group's public relations department, said in a<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WB\">Weibo</a>Said it was \"completely bullshit fake news\".</p><p>Meitu fell 7.43%. Online advertising is still the main source of revenue for Meitu, but its performance is relatively weak. In 2020,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01357\">Meitu Corp</a>Online advertising revenue was 680 million yuan, down 9.5% year-on-year, accounting for 57% of the total revenue. As of December 2020, the total number of monthly active users reached 261 million, representing a year-on-year decrease of 7.6%. Meitu said that the vast majority of the decline was due to a drop in monthly active users in India, as several apps were banned by the Indian government. Excluding such impacts, monthly active users remained relatively stable year-over-year.</p><p><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09626\">Bilibili-SW</a></b><b>Dark disk:</b>Bilibili-SW dark market was reported at HK$760, down 5.94% from the issue price. According to the closing price of US stocks on Thursday of $96.65, the equivalent price of Hong Kong stocks is about HK$ 743, a discount of 8.75% from the pricing of Hong Kong stocks of HK$ 808.</p><p><b>A Shares</b></p><p>On Friday, the three major A-share indexes opened higher collectively, and the market fluctuated upward in early trading. The Shanghai Composite Index recovered 3,400 points, and the ChiNext Index rose by more than 3%; In the afternoon, the gains of the two cities further expanded, the group stocks on the disk obviously picked up, the concept of carbon neutrality reappeared in a large area, and the trading volume increased slightly during the rebound. In addition, the Shanghai Composite Index ended the trend of weekly Lianyin.</p><p>By the close, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.63% to 3,418.33 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 2.6% to 13,769.68 points, and the GEM Index rose 3.37% to 2,745.4 points. The turnover of Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 747.96 billion yuan, slightly larger than yesterday. 93 shares in the two cities had their daily limit and 7 shares had their daily limit (including ST). The actual net inflow of funds going north was 6.43 billion yuan, a net inflow for three consecutive days.</p><p>In terms of industry sectors, textiles and apparel, public utilities, glass ceramics and civil aviation airports in the power industry were among the top gainers, while the performance of securities firms, trust culture media, telecom operations, coal mining and processing, precious metals, etc. was sluggish.</p><p><b>U.S. stocks</b></p><p>In the pre-market session on Friday, the futures of the three major U.S. stocks rose slightly. As of 16:10 Beijing time, Dow futures rose 0.34%, Nasdaq futures rose 0.43%, and S&P 500 futures rose 0.38%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/141b838424a50c66a337afe23e431c8a\" tg-width=\"356\" tg-height=\"155\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>European shares</b></p><p>Europe's main indexes were higher, with the Stoxx 50 up 0.79%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VUKE.UK\">FTSE 100 UK</a>The index rose 0.83%, and Germany's DAX30 index rose 0.87%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cc4f84ffae054964c6fb65216d98402d\" tg-width=\"791\" tg-height=\"353\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>crude oil</b></p><p>Crude oil futures rose during the day, and oil futures in the United States and Brunei rose during the day. As of 16:10 Beijing time, the WTI crude oil futures contract in May rose by 2.05% to $59.76/barrel. The May futures contract of Brent oil cash rose by 1.73% to $63.02/barrel.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/12e500790fab5ff60b574d9a7b76e68a\" tg-width=\"357\" tg-height=\"252\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Gold</b></p><p>Gold futures rose slightly during the day. As of 16:10 Beijing time, the gold April futures contract rose by 0.03% during the day to $1,725.7/oz.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f0cd2029f85d1409438a27368ad9485f\" tg-width=\"360\" tg-height=\"141\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Market Overview: Hong Kong A rises together! BlackRock Singing Long Chinese Market, Cow Will Come Back?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMarket Overview: Hong Kong A rises together! BlackRock Singing Long Chinese Market, Cow Will Come Back?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-03-26 16:26</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Important News</b></p><p>1. Today, the central bank launched a 10 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation. Because 10 billion yuan reverse repurchase expired today, it achieved zero investment and zero withdrawal on the same day. This week, the central bank carried out a 50 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation. Because 50 billion yuan reverse repurchase expired this week, it achieved zero investment and zero withdrawal this week.</p><p>2. According to China Securities Journal,<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BLK\">BlackRock</a>The Group believes that there is a good opportunity to enter the PRC market in the near future.</b>In terms of stocks, China's proportion in the global index is still low, and its proportion in the MSCI \"All Countries World Index\" (including offshore stocks) is still low. First of all, China's shift of economic development focus to improving the quality of economic growth is conducive to cultivating more high-quality companies in the long run. Secondly, China has big ambitions in meeting its climate goals, and many related industries are expected to benefit from climate policies.</p><p>3、<b>The procyclical plate of \"national team\" stock selection is a favorite.</b>According to China Securities Journal, with the gradual release of 2020 annual reports of listed companies, the shareholding of \"national teams\" such as social security funds has surfaced. Wind data shows that as of press time on March 25th, social security funds have appeared in the list of the top ten shareholders of tradable shares in the annual reports of 83 listed companies, continuing their preference for procyclical sectors such as chemicals and nonferrous metals in style. The heavy holdings of China Securities Finance Corporation, Central Huijin Asset Management Co., Ltd. and Central Huijin Investment Co., Ltd. are mostly concentrated in finance, energy and other sectors.</p><p><b>Hong Kong stock</b></p><p>The three major indices of Hong Kong stocks closed higher across the board, with large technology stocks performing actively, and the theme sectors generally rose. As of the close, the Hang Seng Index rose 1.57% to 28,336 points, the HSI rose 2.06% to 10,966 points, and the Hang Seng Technology Index rose 2.33% to 8,129 points.</p><p>On the disk, Xiaomi, a large technology stock, once rose by 10% to close by 6.28%, and Meituan rose by 5%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">Tencent</a>up 2.3%, but<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba</a>fell by more than 2%; Property management stocks broke out again,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02669\">China Overseas Property</a>Soaring over 25%, tobacco concept stocks rebounded strongly, wind power stocks, automobile stocks, dairy products, photovoltaic stocks, port and shipping stocks, catering stocks, etc. generally rose; Sporting goods stocks maintained yesterday's strong market, with Anta rising nearly 6% and over 15% on the 2nd; However, a few sectors of SaaS stocks and online education stocks were lower.</p><p>Today, the net inflow of funds going south is HK$ 7.008 billion, and the turnover of the market has not been enlarged, with a turnover of HK$ 183.9 billion throughout the day.</p><p>Xiaomi rose 6.28%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02333\">Great Wall Motors</a>Up 10.38%, market news said, millet is in talks to use<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601633\">Great Wall Motors</a>Factory, which makes electric vehicles, could announce the partnership as soon as next week. In response to the news that \"Xiaomi is negotiating with Great Wall Motor to produce electric vehicles and plans to announce cooperation as soon as next week\", Xu Jieyun, former general manager of Xiaomi Group's public relations department, said in a<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WB\">Weibo</a>Said it was \"completely bullshit fake news\".</p><p>Meitu fell 7.43%. Online advertising is still the main source of revenue for Meitu, but its performance is relatively weak. In 2020,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01357\">Meitu Corp</a>Online advertising revenue was 680 million yuan, down 9.5% year-on-year, accounting for 57% of the total revenue. As of December 2020, the total number of monthly active users reached 261 million, representing a year-on-year decrease of 7.6%. Meitu said that the vast majority of the decline was due to a drop in monthly active users in India, as several apps were banned by the Indian government. Excluding such impacts, monthly active users remained relatively stable year-over-year.</p><p><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09626\">Bilibili-SW</a></b><b>Dark disk:</b>Bilibili-SW dark market was reported at HK$760, down 5.94% from the issue price. According to the closing price of US stocks on Thursday of $96.65, the equivalent price of Hong Kong stocks is about HK$ 743, a discount of 8.75% from the pricing of Hong Kong stocks of HK$ 808.</p><p><b>A Shares</b></p><p>On Friday, the three major A-share indexes opened higher collectively, and the market fluctuated upward in early trading. The Shanghai Composite Index recovered 3,400 points, and the ChiNext Index rose by more than 3%; In the afternoon, the gains of the two cities further expanded, the group stocks on the disk obviously picked up, the concept of carbon neutrality reappeared in a large area, and the trading volume increased slightly during the rebound. In addition, the Shanghai Composite Index ended the trend of weekly Lianyin.</p><p>By the close, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.63% to 3,418.33 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 2.6% to 13,769.68 points, and the GEM Index rose 3.37% to 2,745.4 points. The turnover of Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 747.96 billion yuan, slightly larger than yesterday. 93 shares in the two cities had their daily limit and 7 shares had their daily limit (including ST). The actual net inflow of funds going north was 6.43 billion yuan, a net inflow for three consecutive days.</p><p>In terms of industry sectors, textiles and apparel, public utilities, glass ceramics and civil aviation airports in the power industry were among the top gainers, while the performance of securities firms, trust culture media, telecom operations, coal mining and processing, precious metals, etc. was sluggish.</p><p><b>U.S. stocks</b></p><p>In the pre-market session on Friday, the futures of the three major U.S. stocks rose slightly. As of 16:10 Beijing time, Dow futures rose 0.34%, Nasdaq futures rose 0.43%, and S&P 500 futures rose 0.38%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/141b838424a50c66a337afe23e431c8a\" tg-width=\"356\" tg-height=\"155\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>European shares</b></p><p>Europe's main indexes were higher, with the Stoxx 50 up 0.79%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VUKE.UK\">FTSE 100 UK</a>The index rose 0.83%, and Germany's DAX30 index rose 0.87%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cc4f84ffae054964c6fb65216d98402d\" tg-width=\"791\" tg-height=\"353\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>crude oil</b></p><p>Crude oil futures rose during the day, and oil futures in the United States and Brunei rose during the day. As of 16:10 Beijing time, the WTI crude oil futures contract in May rose by 2.05% to $59.76/barrel. The May futures contract of Brent oil cash rose by 1.73% to $63.02/barrel.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/12e500790fab5ff60b574d9a7b76e68a\" tg-width=\"357\" tg-height=\"252\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Gold</b></p><p>Gold futures rose slightly during the day. As of 16:10 Beijing time, the gold April futures contract rose by 0.03% during the day to $1,725.7/oz.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f0cd2029f85d1409438a27368ad9485f\" tg-width=\"360\" tg-height=\"141\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a5d11890cd6ccd454a56d86737fd3353","relate_stocks":{"399001":"深证成指","HSI":"恒生指数","000001.SH":"上证指数"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1190278634","content_text":"要闻1、央行今日开展100亿元逆回购操作，因今日有100亿元逆回购到期，当日实现零投放零回笼。本周，央行进行500亿元逆回购操作，因本周有500亿元逆回购到期，本周实现零投放零回笼。2、据中证报报道，贝莱德集团认为近期中国市场入市良机已现。股票方面，中国在全球指数内所占比重仍偏低，在MSCI“所有国家世界指数”（包括离岸股票）占比仍然较低。首先，中国将经济发展重心转向提升经济增长质量，长远来说有利于培育更多优质公司。其次，中国在实现气候目标方面有远大抱负，许多相关行业有望受益于气候政策。3、“国家队”选股顺周期板块是心头好。据中证报报道，随着上市公司2020年年报渐次出炉，社保基金等“国家队”持股情况浮出水面。Wind数据显示，截至3月25日发稿时，社保基金已出现在83家上市公司年报前十大流通股股东名单中，在风格上延续了对化工、有色金属等顺周期板块的偏好。中国证券金融股份有限公司、中央汇金资产管理有限责任公司和中央汇金投资有限责任公司重仓股则多集中在金融、能源等板块。港股港股三大指数全线收涨，大型科技股表现活跃，题材板块普涨。截至收盘，恒指涨1.57%报28336点，国指涨2.06%报10966点，恒生科技指数涨2.33%报8129点。盘面上，大型科技股小米盘中一度大涨10%收涨6.28%，美团涨5%，腾讯涨2.3%，惟阿里巴巴跌超2%；物管股再度爆发，中海物业飙涨超25%，烟草概念股强势反弹，风电股、汽车股、乳制品、光伏股、港口及航运股、餐饮股等普遍上涨；体育用品股维持昨日强势行情，安踏涨近6%，2日涨超15%；惟SaaS股、在线教育股少数板块走低。今日南下资金净流入70.08亿港元，大市成交额并未有所放大，全天成交1839亿港元。小米涨6.28%，长城汽车涨10.38%，市场消息称，小米正在商谈使用长城汽车的工厂生产电动汽车，最快可能下周宣布合作关系。针对“小米正与长城汽车谈判生产电动汽车，计划最快下周宣布合作”的消息，前小米集团公关部总经理徐洁云在微博表示，这是“完全扯淡的假新闻”。美图跌7.43%，在线广告仍是美图的主要收入来源，但表现较为疲软。2020年，美图公司在线广告收入为6.8亿元，同比下降9.5%，占总收入百分比为57%。截至2020年12月，月活跃用户总数达2.61亿，同比下降7.6%。美图表示，绝大部分下降是由于印度的月活跃用户下降所致，因为若干应用被印度政府禁止。撇除此类影响，月活跃用户同比保持相对稳定。哔哩哔哩-SW 暗盘：哔哩哔哩-SW暗盘报760港元，较发行价跌5.94%。按照周四美股的收盘价96.65美元计算，折合港股价格约为743港元，较港股808港元的定价折价8.75%。A股周五，A股三大股指集体高开，早盘市场震荡上行，沪指收复3400点，创业板指涨逾3%；午后两市涨幅进一步扩大，盘面上抱团股明显回暖，碳中和概念再现大面积涨停，反弹中成交量略有增长。另外，沪指终结了周线连阴的走势。截至收盘，沪指涨1.63%，报3418.33点，深成指涨2.6%，报13769.68点，创业板指涨3.37%，报2745.4点。沪深两市成交额7479.6亿元，较昨日小幅放大。两市93股涨停，7股跌停（含ST）。 北上资金实际净流入64.3亿元，连续3日净流入。行业板块方面，电力行业纺织服装、公用事业、玻璃陶瓷、民航机场涨幅靠前，券商信托文化传媒、电信运营、煤炭采选、贵金属等表现低迷。美股周五盘前时段，美股三大指数期货微涨。截至北京时间16:10，道指期货涨0.34%，纳指期货涨0.43%，标普500指数期货涨0.38%。欧股欧洲主要指数走高，欧洲斯托克50指数涨0.79%，英国富时100指数涨0.83%，德国DAX30指数涨0.87%。原油原油期货日内走高，美、布油期货日内大涨。截至北京时间16:10，WTI原油5月期货合约日内涨2.05%报59.76美元/桶。布油现金5月期货合约日内涨1.73%报63.02美元/桶。黄金黄金期货日内微涨，截北京时间16:10，黄金4月期货合约日内涨0.03%，报1725.7美元/盎司。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"399001":0.9,"HSI":0.9,"000001.SH":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1799,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":356767545,"gmtCreate":1616817984087,"gmtModify":1704799382977,"author":{"id":"3557305548001793","authorId":"3557305548001793","name":"Ikhas","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a0fd7b69b3c00ecf9cc780ede0cf5943","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3557305548001793","idStr":"3557305548001793"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"hard to say&nbsp;far away to goahead","listText":"hard to say&nbsp;far away to goahead","text":"hard to say far away to goahead","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/356767545","repostId":"1133889321","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1133889321","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1616764874,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1133889321?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-03-26 21:21","market":"other","language":"zh","title":"Is the Turkish crisis representative and are emerging markets really dangerous?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1133889321","media":"轩言全球宏观","summary":"近期包括土耳其在内的三个新兴经济体央行采取了加息措施。","content":"<p><b>In response to domestic inflation and currency depreciation pressures, the central banks of three emerging economies, including Turkey's, have recently adopted rate hike measures.</b>On March 18th, Brazil's central bank announced its first rate hike in six years, raising its benchmark interest rate by 75 basis points to 2.75%, and said it would rate hike the same amount again at its May meeting.</p><p>On March 19, Turkey's central bank announced \"early action\" to raise its benchmark interest rate by 200 basis points to 19%, twice the market expectations, in response to inflation of nearly 16% and the depreciation of the lira; On March 20th, the Russian Central Bank announced that the rate hike was 25 basis points to 4.5%, which was the first time that Russia had raised its key interest rate since 2018. The Russian Central Bank said that the balance of risks had turned to the risk of rising inflation.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/557a2ff485f462b461cacd8cb79db94f\" tg-width=\"969\" tg-height=\"684\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>In response to the country's long-standing high inflation and the recent increase in inflationary pressures, Turkey has seen four major rate hike in the past two years.</b>Different from other emerging economies, the year-on-year growth rate of Turkey's CPI has continued to be in double digits for most periods since 2017. Since June 2020, as global commodity prices bottomed out and rebounded rapidly, the year-on-year growth rate of Turkey's DPPI has begun to rise, from the bottom level of 5.5% to 27.1%. Since November 2020, the year-on-year growth rate of Turkey's CPI has also risen from 11.9% to 15.6% in February 2021.</p><p>In response to domestic inflation, the Central Bank of Turkey has held four consecutive rate hike since September 2020, on September 25, November 20, December 25, 2020 and March 19, 2021,<b>rate hike amplitudes were 200BP, 475BP, 200BP and 200BP, respectively. The capital market generally recognizes the rate hike measures of the Turkish central bank.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6f0d3b2697724be0df1c5ec754988e63\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"698\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>The Turkish president's dismissal of the central bank governor and appointment of new candidates who support the low interest rate policy have dampened the confidence of overseas investors in the Turkish capital market. The outflow of foreign capital has accelerated, and Turkish stocks and foreign exchange bonds have killed three times.</b>On the evening of 19th, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan unexpectedly removed Naci Agbal, the governor of the central bank of Turkey, who had only been in office for four months. This is the third time that Erdogan has replaced the governor of the central bank in the past two years, and the reason for his removal is precisely Erdogan's dissatisfaction with his rate hike measures. Erdogan believes that rate hike is the cause of inflation, and requires low interest rates to stimulate economic growth.</p><p>According to the presidential decree, the post of central bank governor will be taken over by Sahap Kavcioglu, who has been criticizing the central bank's rate hike measures, which means that the Turkish central bank is likely to re-adopt the low interest rate policy and give up controlling inflation and saving the exchange rate. In view of the difficulty for overseas investors to agree with its policy measures, the loss of confidence in the central bank's credibility has accelerated the capital flow out of the Turkish market, and made Turkey face the situation of \"three kills of stocks, bonds and foreign exchange\".</p><p>On March 22nd, Turkey's long-term sovereign bonds denominated in US dollars recorded a record one-day decline. The yield of the 10-year Treasury Bond rose by 4.5% to 18.0%, the benchmark stock index Istanbul 100 Index fell by 9.8%, and the stock market was fused twice for two consecutive days. The Turkish lira once plunged by 17% in intraday session, and finally depreciated by 7.5% on that day. On March 23rd, the turmoil in Turkey's capital market continued.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2dc658687f25b0186217e81807c995ff\" tg-width=\"1012\" tg-height=\"680\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Stronger the US Dollar Index and rising U.S. bond yields are one of the background factors of Turkey's rate hike in March.</b>Combined with the synchronous rate hike of other countries, the strength of the US Dollar Index and the rapid rise of U.S. bond yields, as well as the resulting global capital market turmoil and capital flow changes, may prompt some funds to withdraw from emerging markets, causing the currencies of Russian, Brazilian and Turkey to depreciate since March, while the depreciation of domestic currencies will increase the import price of goods and further aggravate the domestic inflationary pressure. This may be the reason why many emerging economies have also synchronized with the rate hike of the Turkish central bank in the near future.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/90e913995172079ea2830f7727eb7b58\" tg-width=\"995\" tg-height=\"672\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Historically, Turkey has frequently broken out crises and turmoil, which is rooted in its own vulnerability.</b>The reasons for the frequent crisis in Turkey's financial market mainly lie in the following three aspects:</p><p>First, Turkey's political environment is harsh and political turmoil is frequent, which not only affects the confidence of the capital market, but also inhibits the domestic supply capacity, and aggravates the inflation problem. Second, Turkey's current account and fiscal \"double deficit\" means that its debt financing has a high degree of exogenous dependence. The foreign debt burden is a long-term lack of sustained income faced by Turkey to repay its foreign debt, so it is very sensitive to the changes of the US dollar exchange rate and interest rate; Third, Turkey's foreign reserves account for a very low proportion of GDP, and its ability to pay its foreign debt and maintain the exchange rate is weak.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fc989dfda559ebf997257c2d28f912aa\" tg-width=\"998\" tg-height=\"674\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>From the perspective of external factors, the strength of the US dollar is limited. The crisis in Turkey does not mean a collective crisis in emerging markets, but it may have a small indirect transmission to other countries.</b>At present, the fundamentals of Turkey and other emerging markets, especially Asian emerging markets, are quite different. Coupled with the current relatively loose international liquidity environment, the plunge of the lira does not mean the collective crisis of emerging markets for the time being.</p><p>From the perspective of transmission routes, Russia, Spain and Argentina are relatively more negatively affected:<b>From the perspective of trade relations, Turkey imports more from Russia, China, Germany and the United States, accounting for about 5% of Russia's total exports, and a lower proportion among other major importing countries; From the perspective of the relationship between the financial system, the European banking industry, especially Spain, has a large exposure to Turkey's debt risk. In addition, the fluctuation of the Turkish lira in the financial market may also be linked to the Argentine peso.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef4aaea96c335fa53b1e0de59aeebc6d\" tg-width=\"874\" tg-height=\"841\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>The impact of the Turkish crisis on the RMB exchange rate and China's capital market is limited.</b>From a fundamental perspective, exports to Turkey accounted for only 0.7% of China's exports in 2019, indicating that even if Turkey's fundamentals deteriorate, it will have little impact on China.</p><p>At the financial level, the the US Dollar Index has recently hovered at the level of 91-92. First, it has dropped significantly from the high level of over 100 in 2020. Secondly, it has not strengthened further in the near future, and the recent performance of RMB exchange rate has also been calm. The recent statement of European and American central banks shows that monetary policy is still in a loose trend, and US stocks, which have a great impact on global risk appetite, still rise in the shock, indicating that foreign risk appetite still benefits from the general environment of stable liquidity and economic recovery, highlighting that Turkey's turmoil has strong individual country factors.</p><p>We expect that its representativeness and infectiousness to the overall emerging markets are not strong, and it will not be an important risk point affecting China's capital market for the time being. In addition, China's economy is the first to recover from the epidemic, and the opening of the capital market continues to attract foreign capital inflows, which is also different from the fundamentals and capital flow situation faced by Turkey. It is not expected that the lira crisis will have much impact on the RMB exchange rate and domestic capital flow situation.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7ff41b251f225f71639a980dcd9b95b1\" tg-width=\"973\" tg-height=\"615\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>In terms of international environment, the upward trend of U.S. bond yields is not the same as the U.S. dollar liquidity tightening, and the the US Dollar Index only rebounded slightly rather than reversed.</b>The upward trend of US bond yields is the inevitable result of the upward trend of global and US nominal economic growth and the expected improvement, and the upward trend of US bond yields usually occurs at the same time as the rise of US stocks. Therefore, under the background that the Federal Reserve has made it clear that it will maintain a loose monetary policy,<b>The upward trend of U.S. bond yields mainly reflects the positive economic outlook and upward price trend, and may be accompanied by the improvement of risk appetite, which does not necessarily indicate the global liquidity crunch.</b>In the case of a sharp and significant rise in the yield of U.S. bonds, we found that the the US Dollar Index only rebounded slightly to the level of 91-92, which confirmed that the upward capital of the yield of U.S. bonds would not flow out of emerging markets and return to the United States on a large scale, thus significantly pushing up the U.S. dollar.</p><p>In terms of the trend of the US dollar itself, the US Dollar Index has retreated significantly from the high of 102 in March 2020 and entered a weak cycle. The short-term rebound of the US Dollar Index is mainly due to two reasons:</p><p>First, the improvement of the epidemic situation and the promotion of vaccines in the United States are among the best in the world; Second, Biden's policy measures after taking office have brought strong fiscal stimulus expectations at this stage, which is conducive to the economic outlook. However, the strength of the US Dollar Index is actually quite limited because,<b>Although there is a difference in speed, the world is in a period of common recovery, so it still constitutes an environment of global leverage with US dollars, and the supply of US dollars tends to increase in total, thus restraining the strength of the US Dollar Index.</b>Based on the general trend of the Fed's easing policy and global recovery, we believe that the US Dollar Index is limited to rebound rather than reversal, and the US Dollar Index is still in the third cycle of weakness after 1970.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8012910e3326bb06b96cc8577c7e3f67\" tg-width=\"993\" tg-height=\"631\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>","source":"lsy1582886636882","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Is the Turkish crisis representative and are emerging markets really dangerous?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIs the Turkish crisis representative and are emerging markets really dangerous?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">轩言全球宏观</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-03-26 21:21</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>In response to domestic inflation and currency depreciation pressures, the central banks of three emerging economies, including Turkey's, have recently adopted rate hike measures.</b>On March 18th, Brazil's central bank announced its first rate hike in six years, raising its benchmark interest rate by 75 basis points to 2.75%, and said it would rate hike the same amount again at its May meeting.</p><p>On March 19, Turkey's central bank announced \"early action\" to raise its benchmark interest rate by 200 basis points to 19%, twice the market expectations, in response to inflation of nearly 16% and the depreciation of the lira; On March 20th, the Russian Central Bank announced that the rate hike was 25 basis points to 4.5%, which was the first time that Russia had raised its key interest rate since 2018. The Russian Central Bank said that the balance of risks had turned to the risk of rising inflation.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/557a2ff485f462b461cacd8cb79db94f\" tg-width=\"969\" tg-height=\"684\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>In response to the country's long-standing high inflation and the recent increase in inflationary pressures, Turkey has seen four major rate hike in the past two years.</b>Different from other emerging economies, the year-on-year growth rate of Turkey's CPI has continued to be in double digits for most periods since 2017. Since June 2020, as global commodity prices bottomed out and rebounded rapidly, the year-on-year growth rate of Turkey's DPPI has begun to rise, from the bottom level of 5.5% to 27.1%. Since November 2020, the year-on-year growth rate of Turkey's CPI has also risen from 11.9% to 15.6% in February 2021.</p><p>In response to domestic inflation, the Central Bank of Turkey has held four consecutive rate hike since September 2020, on September 25, November 20, December 25, 2020 and March 19, 2021,<b>rate hike amplitudes were 200BP, 475BP, 200BP and 200BP, respectively. The capital market generally recognizes the rate hike measures of the Turkish central bank.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6f0d3b2697724be0df1c5ec754988e63\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"698\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>The Turkish president's dismissal of the central bank governor and appointment of new candidates who support the low interest rate policy have dampened the confidence of overseas investors in the Turkish capital market. The outflow of foreign capital has accelerated, and Turkish stocks and foreign exchange bonds have killed three times.</b>On the evening of 19th, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan unexpectedly removed Naci Agbal, the governor of the central bank of Turkey, who had only been in office for four months. This is the third time that Erdogan has replaced the governor of the central bank in the past two years, and the reason for his removal is precisely Erdogan's dissatisfaction with his rate hike measures. Erdogan believes that rate hike is the cause of inflation, and requires low interest rates to stimulate economic growth.</p><p>According to the presidential decree, the post of central bank governor will be taken over by Sahap Kavcioglu, who has been criticizing the central bank's rate hike measures, which means that the Turkish central bank is likely to re-adopt the low interest rate policy and give up controlling inflation and saving the exchange rate. In view of the difficulty for overseas investors to agree with its policy measures, the loss of confidence in the central bank's credibility has accelerated the capital flow out of the Turkish market, and made Turkey face the situation of \"three kills of stocks, bonds and foreign exchange\".</p><p>On March 22nd, Turkey's long-term sovereign bonds denominated in US dollars recorded a record one-day decline. The yield of the 10-year Treasury Bond rose by 4.5% to 18.0%, the benchmark stock index Istanbul 100 Index fell by 9.8%, and the stock market was fused twice for two consecutive days. The Turkish lira once plunged by 17% in intraday session, and finally depreciated by 7.5% on that day. On March 23rd, the turmoil in Turkey's capital market continued.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2dc658687f25b0186217e81807c995ff\" tg-width=\"1012\" tg-height=\"680\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Stronger the US Dollar Index and rising U.S. bond yields are one of the background factors of Turkey's rate hike in March.</b>Combined with the synchronous rate hike of other countries, the strength of the US Dollar Index and the rapid rise of U.S. bond yields, as well as the resulting global capital market turmoil and capital flow changes, may prompt some funds to withdraw from emerging markets, causing the currencies of Russian, Brazilian and Turkey to depreciate since March, while the depreciation of domestic currencies will increase the import price of goods and further aggravate the domestic inflationary pressure. This may be the reason why many emerging economies have also synchronized with the rate hike of the Turkish central bank in the near future.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/90e913995172079ea2830f7727eb7b58\" tg-width=\"995\" tg-height=\"672\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Historically, Turkey has frequently broken out crises and turmoil, which is rooted in its own vulnerability.</b>The reasons for the frequent crisis in Turkey's financial market mainly lie in the following three aspects:</p><p>First, Turkey's political environment is harsh and political turmoil is frequent, which not only affects the confidence of the capital market, but also inhibits the domestic supply capacity, and aggravates the inflation problem. Second, Turkey's current account and fiscal \"double deficit\" means that its debt financing has a high degree of exogenous dependence. The foreign debt burden is a long-term lack of sustained income faced by Turkey to repay its foreign debt, so it is very sensitive to the changes of the US dollar exchange rate and interest rate; Third, Turkey's foreign reserves account for a very low proportion of GDP, and its ability to pay its foreign debt and maintain the exchange rate is weak.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fc989dfda559ebf997257c2d28f912aa\" tg-width=\"998\" tg-height=\"674\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>From the perspective of external factors, the strength of the US dollar is limited. The crisis in Turkey does not mean a collective crisis in emerging markets, but it may have a small indirect transmission to other countries.</b>At present, the fundamentals of Turkey and other emerging markets, especially Asian emerging markets, are quite different. Coupled with the current relatively loose international liquidity environment, the plunge of the lira does not mean the collective crisis of emerging markets for the time being.</p><p>From the perspective of transmission routes, Russia, Spain and Argentina are relatively more negatively affected:<b>From the perspective of trade relations, Turkey imports more from Russia, China, Germany and the United States, accounting for about 5% of Russia's total exports, and a lower proportion among other major importing countries; From the perspective of the relationship between the financial system, the European banking industry, especially Spain, has a large exposure to Turkey's debt risk. In addition, the fluctuation of the Turkish lira in the financial market may also be linked to the Argentine peso.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef4aaea96c335fa53b1e0de59aeebc6d\" tg-width=\"874\" tg-height=\"841\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>The impact of the Turkish crisis on the RMB exchange rate and China's capital market is limited.</b>From a fundamental perspective, exports to Turkey accounted for only 0.7% of China's exports in 2019, indicating that even if Turkey's fundamentals deteriorate, it will have little impact on China.</p><p>At the financial level, the the US Dollar Index has recently hovered at the level of 91-92. First, it has dropped significantly from the high level of over 100 in 2020. Secondly, it has not strengthened further in the near future, and the recent performance of RMB exchange rate has also been calm. The recent statement of European and American central banks shows that monetary policy is still in a loose trend, and US stocks, which have a great impact on global risk appetite, still rise in the shock, indicating that foreign risk appetite still benefits from the general environment of stable liquidity and economic recovery, highlighting that Turkey's turmoil has strong individual country factors.</p><p>We expect that its representativeness and infectiousness to the overall emerging markets are not strong, and it will not be an important risk point affecting China's capital market for the time being. In addition, China's economy is the first to recover from the epidemic, and the opening of the capital market continues to attract foreign capital inflows, which is also different from the fundamentals and capital flow situation faced by Turkey. It is not expected that the lira crisis will have much impact on the RMB exchange rate and domestic capital flow situation.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7ff41b251f225f71639a980dcd9b95b1\" tg-width=\"973\" tg-height=\"615\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>In terms of international environment, the upward trend of U.S. bond yields is not the same as the U.S. dollar liquidity tightening, and the the US Dollar Index only rebounded slightly rather than reversed.</b>The upward trend of US bond yields is the inevitable result of the upward trend of global and US nominal economic growth and the expected improvement, and the upward trend of US bond yields usually occurs at the same time as the rise of US stocks. Therefore, under the background that the Federal Reserve has made it clear that it will maintain a loose monetary policy,<b>The upward trend of U.S. bond yields mainly reflects the positive economic outlook and upward price trend, and may be accompanied by the improvement of risk appetite, which does not necessarily indicate the global liquidity crunch.</b>In the case of a sharp and significant rise in the yield of U.S. bonds, we found that the the US Dollar Index only rebounded slightly to the level of 91-92, which confirmed that the upward capital of the yield of U.S. bonds would not flow out of emerging markets and return to the United States on a large scale, thus significantly pushing up the U.S. dollar.</p><p>In terms of the trend of the US dollar itself, the US Dollar Index has retreated significantly from the high of 102 in March 2020 and entered a weak cycle. The short-term rebound of the US Dollar Index is mainly due to two reasons:</p><p>First, the improvement of the epidemic situation and the promotion of vaccines in the United States are among the best in the world; Second, Biden's policy measures after taking office have brought strong fiscal stimulus expectations at this stage, which is conducive to the economic outlook. However, the strength of the US Dollar Index is actually quite limited because,<b>Although there is a difference in speed, the world is in a period of common recovery, so it still constitutes an environment of global leverage with US dollars, and the supply of US dollars tends to increase in total, thus restraining the strength of the US Dollar Index.</b>Based on the general trend of the Fed's easing policy and global recovery, we believe that the US Dollar Index is limited to rebound rather than reversal, and the US Dollar Index is still in the third cycle of weakness after 1970.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8012910e3326bb06b96cc8577c7e3f67\" tg-width=\"993\" tg-height=\"631\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/cQFsgYDzs5RFxQ-mFCgoNQ\">轩言全球宏观</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a9e96b6b37180c3969a55df6e11880b8","relate_stocks":{"TUR":"土耳其ETF-iShares MSCI"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/cQFsgYDzs5RFxQ-mFCgoNQ","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1133889321","content_text":"为应对国内通胀与货币贬值压力，近期包括土耳其在内的三个新兴经济体央行采取了加息措施。3月18日，巴西央行宣布六年来首次加息，将基准利率上调75个基点至2.75%，并称将在5月会议上再次加息相同幅度。\n3月19日，土耳其央行宣布“提前行动”，将指标利率上调200个基点至19%，幅度为市场预期的两倍，以应对接近16%的通胀和里拉的贬值；3月20日，俄罗斯央行宣布加息25个基点至4.5%，是俄罗斯自2018年以来，首次上调关键利率，俄央行表示，风险的天平已转向了通胀上升的风险。\n\n为应对本国持续已久的高通胀和近期的通胀压力加剧，近两年土耳其已四次大幅加息。与其他新兴经济体不同的是，2017年以来的大多数时期，土耳其CPI同比增速持续处于两位数状态，从2020年6月起，随着全球大宗商品价格触底快速回升，土耳其DPPI同比增速开始出现抬升，从5.5%的底部水平已抬升至27.1%，从2020年11月开始，土耳其CPI同比增速亦从11.9%抬升至2021年2月的15.6%。\n为应对国内通胀，自2020年9月以来，土耳其央行已连续四次加息，分别为2020年9月25日、11月20日、12月25日和2021年3月19日，加息幅度分别为200BP、475BP、200BP、200BP。对于土耳其央行的加息举措，资本市场总体呈认可态度。\n\n土耳其总统罢免央行行长并任命支持低利率政策的新人选打击了海外投资者对土耳其资本市场的信心，外资加速流出，土耳其股汇债三杀。土耳其总统埃尔多安19日晚出人意料地免除了仅上任4个月的土耳其央行行长Naci Agbal的职务，这是埃尔多安过去2年里第3次撤换央行行长，而免职原因恰恰在于埃尔多安对于其加息举措的不满，埃尔多安认为，恰恰加息才是导致通胀的原因，要求保持低利率以刺激经济增长。\n根据总统令，央行行长职位将由一直批评央行加息举措的Sahap Kavcioglu接任，这意味着土耳其央行很可能重新采取低利率政策，并放弃控制通胀和拯救汇率，鉴于海外投资者难以认同其政策举措，对央行信誉信心的丧失使得资本加速流出土耳其市场，并使得土耳其面临“股债汇三杀”的局面。\n3月22日，土耳其以美元计价的长期主权债券录得创纪录的单日跌幅，10年期国债收益率上升4.5%至18.0%，基准股指伊斯坦堡100指数下跌9.8%，且股市连续两日两度熔断，土耳其里拉盘中一度暴跌17%，当日最终贬值7.5%，3月23日，土耳其资本市场的动荡仍在延续。\n\n美元指数走强和美债收益率上行是3月土耳其加息的背景因素之一。结合他国的同步加息来看，美元指数走强和美债收益率快速上行，以及由此带来的全球资本市场动荡和资金流向变化，可能促使部分资金从新兴市场撤出，使得俄罗斯、巴西以及土耳其的货币均在3月以来出现贬值，而本国货币的贬值会使得商品进口价格上升，并进一步加剧国内通胀压力，这可能是近期多个新兴经济体也同步于土耳其央行加息的原因。\n\n历史上土耳其频频爆发危机和动荡，根源在于自身所具有的脆弱性。土耳其金融市场危机频发的原因主要在于以下三个方面：\n\n 第一，土耳其政治环境恶劣，政治动荡频发，既影响资本市场信心，也抑制国内供给能力，加剧了通胀问题问题，第二，土耳其存在经常账户和财政“双赤字”的情况，意味着其债务融资外源性依赖程度高，外债负担是土耳其面临的长期又缺乏持续的收入来偿还外债，因此对美元汇率和利率的变化非常敏感；第三，土耳其外储占GDP比重很低，偿付外债的能力和维护汇率的能力较弱。\n\n\n从外部因素来看，美元强势程度有限，土耳其危机并不意味着新兴市场集体性的危机，但可能对其他国家有小幅度间接传导。当前土耳其与其他新兴市场、特别是亚洲新兴市场的基本面差异较大，加之目前相对宽松的国际流动性环境，里拉暴跌暂不意味着新兴市场集体性的危机。\n从传导途径看，俄罗斯、西班牙、阿根廷相对受到负面影响更大：从贸易关系看，土耳其从俄罗斯、中国、德国、美国进口较多，在俄罗斯总出口中占比5%左右，在其他主要进口国中占比均较低；从金融体系的关系看，欧洲银行业、特别是西班牙对土耳其的债务风险敞口较大。此外金融市场上土耳其里拉的波动也可能与阿根廷比索产生联动。\n\n土耳其危机对人民币汇率和我国资本市场的影响有限。从基本面看，2019年对土耳其出口在我国出口中占比仅为0.7%，显示土耳其基本面即使恶化对我国影响也很小。\n金融层面，近期美元指数在91-92水平徘徊，首先较2020年100以上的高位有明显回落，其次近期未进一步走强，人民币汇率近期表现也波澜不惊，欧美央行近期表态显示货币政策仍处于宽松走向中，对全球风险偏好有较大影响的美股在震荡中仍然有所上涨，表明外资风险偏好仍然受益于流动性平稳和经济复苏的大环境，侧面凸显土耳其动荡有较强的个体国别因素。\n我们预计其对整体新兴市场的代表性和传染性不强，暂不会是影响我国资本市场的重要风险点。加之我国经济率先从疫情中恢复，且资本市场的开放持续引来外资流入，也与土耳其面临的基本面和资本流动形势不同。预计里拉危局不会对人民币汇率和国内资本流动形势带来太大影响。\n\n国际环境方面，美债收益率的上行并不等同于美元流动性收紧，美元指数仅是小幅反弹而非反转。美债收益率上行是全球和美国名义经济增速上行和预期改善的必然结果，且美债收益率上行通常与美股上涨同时出现，因此，在美联储明确表示将维持宽松货币政策的背景下，美债收益率的上行更主要是反映了向好的经济前景和向上的价格趋势，且可能伴随着风险偏好的提升，并不必然表征全球流动性紧缩。在美债收益率大幅、显著上行的情况下，我们发现美元指数仅仅小幅反弹至91-92水平，侧面印证了并非美债收益率上行资本就会大规模流出新兴市场、回流美国从而显著推升美元。\n从美元走势本身来说，美元指数从2020年3月的102高点已显著回落，进入一个弱势周期。美元指数短期反弹，主要出于两方面原因：\n\n 第一，美国疫情改善、疫苗推进在全球名列前茅；第二，拜登上台后的政策举措为现阶段带来较强财政刺激预期，有利于经济前景。\n\n但是，美元指数走强的幅度实际上相当有限，原因在于，虽然存在速度差异，但全球处于一个共同复苏的时段，那么就仍然构成全球加美元杠杆的大环境，美元供应从总量上趋于增加，从而抑制了美元指数的走强幅度。基于美联储宽松政策和全球复苏的大趋势，我们认为美元指数仅限于反弹而非反转，美元指数仍处于1970年之后的第三轮弱势周期中。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TUR":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1590,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":356767945,"gmtCreate":1616817952187,"gmtModify":1704799383138,"author":{"id":"3557305548001793","authorId":"3557305548001793","name":"Ikhas","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a0fd7b69b3c00ecf9cc780ede0cf5943","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3557305548001793","idStr":"3557305548001793"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"infrastructure improvemnet by Joe","listText":"infrastructure improvemnet by Joe","text":"infrastructure improvemnet by Joe","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/356767945","repostId":"1170764582","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2110,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":353942716,"gmtCreate":1616458135935,"gmtModify":1704794288130,"author":{"id":"3557305548001793","authorId":"3557305548001793","name":"Ikhas","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a0fd7b69b3c00ecf9cc780ede0cf5943","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3557305548001793","idStr":"3557305548001793"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"demystification","listText":"demystification","text":"demystification","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/353942716","repostId":"2120923199","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2120923199","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1616138696,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2120923199?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-03-19 15:24","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"7 Myths About Bitcoin: Speculation? Wasting energy? Too volatile?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2120923199","media":"链捕手","summary":"常见的比特币误解进行事实检查。","content":"<p><html><body><div>The recent surge in Bitcoin has revived old fantasies in the media. \"Trouble in Bitcoin: Why the crypto boom can't last\", says a recent news story in the Canadian Bitcoin Globe and Mail.</p><p>To be sure, Bitcoin could be polarized. Bitcoin diehards claim that the cryptocurrency will soon replace gold, all government-backed currencies and credit cards, and paralyze the banking system. Except for the prosperity of reason, this possibility won't happen, at least in the short term. On the other hand, media critics often seriously mistake the idea that Bitcoin is nothing more than a speculative tool, an environmental disaster, a bubble or worse.</p><p>This makes it virtually impossible for investors to conduct an honest, sober analysis of the facts, which is shameful. As a new asset class, investors must do their homework on Bitcoin and carefully consider the risks before joining.</p><p>So, in that spirit, now is the time for a fact-check of some common Bitcoin misconceptions:</p><p><strong>Bitcoin is for speculation only</strong></p><p>This is inaccurate. Every day the Bitcoin network settles approximately $10 billion worth of transactions. The average daily transaction volume in Bitcoin is 305,000, not far off the 550,000 daily volume of Fedwire, the Federal Reserve's wire transfer settlement system between financial institutions.</p><p>Some of these transactions represent investment purchases, some of which may be for speculation, but many others are used on a regular basis, such as remittances, especially in developing countries. For example, according to the World Economic Forum, 32% of Nigerians have Bitcoin for peer-to-peer payments. In regimes like Russian and Belarusian, Bitcoin is sometimes the only way to fund anti-corruption efforts and protests. It was useful.</p><p><strong>Bitcoin wastes energy</strong></p><p>Bitcoin \"miners\" use powerful computing power to secure Bitcoin networks. These computers consume a lot of energy: it is estimated that it is used as much as the country of Chile. This leads to energy waste.</p><p>The Bitcoin network ensures $1 trillion worth of value and serves millions of people, including many who do not have access to traditional payment networks. Miners often live in places where electricity is abundant and free, which usually means renewable hydroelectric or geothermal energy.</p><p>Today, at least 39% of mining in Bitcoin is powered by renewable energy, and that share is growing rapidly. The carbon footprint of Bitcoin is undoubtedly an issue that needs to be addressed. But that doesn't mean Bitcoin is a bad idea. Instead, carbon footprint is a challenge to overcome, as is the case with all useful entities.</p><p><strong>Bitcoin is too volatile to store value</strong></p><p>Granted, Bitcoin is more volatile than government bonds, but it's not inherently a bad thing. In the 1970s, as gold formally broke away from the monetary system, its price was extremely volatile, rising 10-fold over the course of a decade, then falling 60 percent, and flattening out decades later. Gold is rising in value, and its volatility is the most. Sometimes the most volatile assets get the best returns, and sometimes they don't. Bitcoin today is in the \"price discovery\" phase, similar to gold in the 1970s, where big ups and downs are common. Still, due to its volatility, Bitcoin may not be for all investors.</p><p><strong>The government will kill Bitcoin</strong></p><p>It is true that in Nigerian, Russian and Belarusian, Bitcoin has been treated with indifference by the government. But in the United States, Canada and most Western countries, things are different. For example, the nation's top securities regulator has taught courses on cryptocurrencies at MIT; The Commodity Futures Trading Commission, which regulates commodity markets, is a global innovator in regulating Bitcoin derivatives; The U.S. Office of the Comptroller of the Currency recently approved banks to provide custody services for Bitcoin.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CNBC\">Central Bank</a>The primary concern is financial stability. Nothing destroys the $1 trillion Bitcoin market more than some arbitrary, baseless crackdown.</p><p><strong>Other cryptocurrencies dilute Bitcoin</strong></p><p>Since Bitcoin went live in 2009, the market has launched thousands of new cryptocurrencies, but there has been no noticeable impact on prices in Bitcoin. It makes sense. When we mine more tin from the earth, will it affect the supply of gold? No, because they are unrelated assets. A related criticism is that total supply in Bitcoin is not fixed, as Bitcoin can be subdivided into small increments. To see why this is wrong, substitute pizza for Bitcoin: If we cut a pizza into a billion pieces, do we have more pizzas, fewer pizzas or the same number of pizzas? Of course we are the same.</p><p><strong>Central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) and corporate currencies set to crush Bitcoin</strong></p><p>Granted, many central banks have announced CBDC plans, but barely beyond the proof-of-concept stage. The only exception is in China, where the government is keen to launch its own digital currency to better monitor the country's spending and expand its reach beyond its borders.</p><p>Enterprise digital currencies, also known as stablecoins, also do not threaten Bitcoin. Actually, they might do the opposite. The value of all stablecoins in circulation has skyrocketed 40-fold since 2017, but Bitcoin continues to thrive as more users gradually adapt to digital assets.</p><p><strong>'Easy money' is pushing Bitcoin into bubble territory</strong></p><p>It is true that all risky assets have benefited from the loose interest rate policies of the Bank of Canada, the Federal Reserve and elsewhere. As bond yields improve and money moves to stocks like more economically sensitive banks, energy companies, and more, some beneficiaries of low interest rates (including Shopify,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZM\">Zoom</a>and high-gainers in high-tech industries such as Peloton) fluctuated by more than 30%. Bitcoin will likely follow suit at some point, and of course, it would be wise for investors to be cautious about any investment whose value has grown by more than 500% in less than a year like Bitcoin. That said, it's worth noting that Bitcoin could benefit from tightening if it signals that inflation is accelerating, as many investors see Bitcoin as a safe haven against rising consumer prices.</p><p>I believe that Bitcoin is undoubtedly a catalyst for innovation and could become a key player in the future of our global financial system. For thousands of years, from<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BEKE\">Shell</a>Shells to sheets of clay to precious metals, banknotes and bank balances, currencies are taking a step into the future. Money is becoming digital. Purchasing Bitcoin may provide a way to secure that future opportunity. But, with no guarantee of success and probably not the right investment for everyone, Bitcoin is as risky and uncertain as any new paradigm. To learn about Bitcoin, start with the facts.</p><p><span>This article is from Fortune Magazine and translated by Chain Catcher.</span></p><p></div></body></html></p>","source":"jinse_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>7 Myths About Bitcoin: Speculation? Wasting energy? 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Wasting energy? Too volatile?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">链捕手</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-03-19 15:24</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><body><div>The recent surge in Bitcoin has revived old fantasies in the media. \"Trouble in Bitcoin: Why the crypto boom can't last\", says a recent news story in the Canadian Bitcoin Globe and Mail.</p><p>To be sure, Bitcoin could be polarized. Bitcoin diehards claim that the cryptocurrency will soon replace gold, all government-backed currencies and credit cards, and paralyze the banking system. Except for the prosperity of reason, this possibility won't happen, at least in the short term. On the other hand, media critics often seriously mistake the idea that Bitcoin is nothing more than a speculative tool, an environmental disaster, a bubble or worse.</p><p>This makes it virtually impossible for investors to conduct an honest, sober analysis of the facts, which is shameful. As a new asset class, investors must do their homework on Bitcoin and carefully consider the risks before joining.</p><p>So, in that spirit, now is the time for a fact-check of some common Bitcoin misconceptions:</p><p><strong>Bitcoin is for speculation only</strong></p><p>This is inaccurate. Every day the Bitcoin network settles approximately $10 billion worth of transactions. The average daily transaction volume in Bitcoin is 305,000, not far off the 550,000 daily volume of Fedwire, the Federal Reserve's wire transfer settlement system between financial institutions.</p><p>Some of these transactions represent investment purchases, some of which may be for speculation, but many others are used on a regular basis, such as remittances, especially in developing countries. For example, according to the World Economic Forum, 32% of Nigerians have Bitcoin for peer-to-peer payments. In regimes like Russian and Belarusian, Bitcoin is sometimes the only way to fund anti-corruption efforts and protests. It was useful.</p><p><strong>Bitcoin wastes energy</strong></p><p>Bitcoin \"miners\" use powerful computing power to secure Bitcoin networks. These computers consume a lot of energy: it is estimated that it is used as much as the country of Chile. This leads to energy waste.</p><p>The Bitcoin network ensures $1 trillion worth of value and serves millions of people, including many who do not have access to traditional payment networks. Miners often live in places where electricity is abundant and free, which usually means renewable hydroelectric or geothermal energy.</p><p>Today, at least 39% of mining in Bitcoin is powered by renewable energy, and that share is growing rapidly. The carbon footprint of Bitcoin is undoubtedly an issue that needs to be addressed. But that doesn't mean Bitcoin is a bad idea. Instead, carbon footprint is a challenge to overcome, as is the case with all useful entities.</p><p><strong>Bitcoin is too volatile to store value</strong></p><p>Granted, Bitcoin is more volatile than government bonds, but it's not inherently a bad thing. In the 1970s, as gold formally broke away from the monetary system, its price was extremely volatile, rising 10-fold over the course of a decade, then falling 60 percent, and flattening out decades later. Gold is rising in value, and its volatility is the most. Sometimes the most volatile assets get the best returns, and sometimes they don't. Bitcoin today is in the \"price discovery\" phase, similar to gold in the 1970s, where big ups and downs are common. Still, due to its volatility, Bitcoin may not be for all investors.</p><p><strong>The government will kill Bitcoin</strong></p><p>It is true that in Nigerian, Russian and Belarusian, Bitcoin has been treated with indifference by the government. But in the United States, Canada and most Western countries, things are different. For example, the nation's top securities regulator has taught courses on cryptocurrencies at MIT; The Commodity Futures Trading Commission, which regulates commodity markets, is a global innovator in regulating Bitcoin derivatives; The U.S. Office of the Comptroller of the Currency recently approved banks to provide custody services for Bitcoin.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CNBC\">Central Bank</a>The primary concern is financial stability. Nothing destroys the $1 trillion Bitcoin market more than some arbitrary, baseless crackdown.</p><p><strong>Other cryptocurrencies dilute Bitcoin</strong></p><p>Since Bitcoin went live in 2009, the market has launched thousands of new cryptocurrencies, but there has been no noticeable impact on prices in Bitcoin. It makes sense. When we mine more tin from the earth, will it affect the supply of gold? No, because they are unrelated assets. A related criticism is that total supply in Bitcoin is not fixed, as Bitcoin can be subdivided into small increments. To see why this is wrong, substitute pizza for Bitcoin: If we cut a pizza into a billion pieces, do we have more pizzas, fewer pizzas or the same number of pizzas? Of course we are the same.</p><p><strong>Central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) and corporate currencies set to crush Bitcoin</strong></p><p>Granted, many central banks have announced CBDC plans, but barely beyond the proof-of-concept stage. The only exception is in China, where the government is keen to launch its own digital currency to better monitor the country's spending and expand its reach beyond its borders.</p><p>Enterprise digital currencies, also known as stablecoins, also do not threaten Bitcoin. Actually, they might do the opposite. The value of all stablecoins in circulation has skyrocketed 40-fold since 2017, but Bitcoin continues to thrive as more users gradually adapt to digital assets.</p><p><strong>'Easy money' is pushing Bitcoin into bubble territory</strong></p><p>It is true that all risky assets have benefited from the loose interest rate policies of the Bank of Canada, the Federal Reserve and elsewhere. As bond yields improve and money moves to stocks like more economically sensitive banks, energy companies, and more, some beneficiaries of low interest rates (including Shopify,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZM\">Zoom</a>and high-gainers in high-tech industries such as Peloton) fluctuated by more than 30%. Bitcoin will likely follow suit at some point, and of course, it would be wise for investors to be cautious about any investment whose value has grown by more than 500% in less than a year like Bitcoin. That said, it's worth noting that Bitcoin could benefit from tightening if it signals that inflation is accelerating, as many investors see Bitcoin as a safe haven against rising consumer prices.</p><p>I believe that Bitcoin is undoubtedly a catalyst for innovation and could become a key player in the future of our global financial system. For thousands of years, from<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BEKE\">Shell</a>Shells to sheets of clay to precious metals, banknotes and bank balances, currencies are taking a step into the future. Money is becoming digital. Purchasing Bitcoin may provide a way to secure that future opportunity. But, with no guarantee of success and probably not the right investment for everyone, Bitcoin is as risky and uncertain as any new paradigm. To learn about Bitcoin, start with the facts.</p><p><span>This article is from Fortune Magazine and translated by Chain Catcher.</span></p><p></div></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://www.jinse.com/blockchain/1032105.html\">链捕手</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://staticn.jinse.com/web/img/868bf8c.svg","relate_stocks":{"159945":"能源","EBON":"亿邦国际","CAN":"嘉楠科技"},"source_url":"https://www.jinse.com/blockchain/1032105.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2120923199","content_text":"比特币最近的飙升已经重新唤起了媒体的旧幻想。加拿大比特币《环球邮报》（Globe and Mail）最近的一则新闻说： “比特币的麻烦：为什么加密热潮不能持续下去” 。可以肯定的是，比特币可能会两极分化。比特币顽固派人士声称，这种加密货币将很快取代黄金，所有政府支持的货币和信用卡，并使银行系统瘫痪。除了理性的繁荣，这种可能性至少在短期内不会发生。另一方面，媒体评论家常常严重地误以为比特币不外乎是一种投机工具、环境灾难、泡沫或更糟。这使得投资者对事实进行诚实、清醒的分析几乎是不可能的，这是可耻的。作为一种新的资产类别，投资者必须在比特币上做好功课，并在加入之前仔细考虑风险。因此，本着这种精神，现在是时候对一些常见的比特币误解进行事实检查了：比特币仅用于投机这是不准确的。每天比特币网络结算大约价值100亿美元的交易。比特币的平均每日交易量为 305,000笔，与美联储金融机构之间电汇结算系统Fedwire的每日550,000笔的数量相差不远。 其中一些交易代表投资购买，其中一些交易可能是为了投机，但其他许多交易则是定期使用的，例如汇款，尤其是在发展中国家。例如，根据世界经济论坛的数据，尼日利亚32％的人拥有用于点对点支付的比特币。在俄罗斯和白俄罗斯这样的政权中，比特币有时是资助反腐败努力和抗议活动的唯一途径 。这很有用。比特币浪费能源比特币“矿工”利用强大的计算能力来保护比特币网络。这些计算机消耗大量能量：据估计，它的使用量相当于智利的国家。这导致了能源浪费。比特币网络可确保价值1万亿美元的价值，并为数百万人提供服务，其中包括许多无法使用传统支付网络的人。矿工们经常居住在电力丰富而又自由的地方，这通常意味着可再生的水力发电或地热能源。如今 ，至少39％的比特币采矿业由可再生能源提供动力，并且这一份额正在迅速增长。比特币的碳足迹无疑是一个需要解决的问题。但这并不意味着比特币是一个坏主意。相反，碳足迹是要克服的挑战，就像所有有用实体一样。比特币波动太大，无法存储价值诚然，比特币比政府债券更容易波动，但从本质上来说并不是坏事。1970年代，随着黄金从货币体系中正式脱离，其价格极度动荡， 在十年中上涨了10倍，然后下降了60％，并在数十年后趋于平缓。黄金的价值不断上涨，其波动性最大。有时最具波动性的资产可获得最佳回报，有时却没有。如今的比特币处于“价格发现”阶段，类似于1970年代的黄金，在那里大起大落很常见。尽管如此，由于其波动性，比特币可能并不适合所有投资者。政府将杀死比特币的确，在尼日利亚，俄罗斯和白俄罗斯，比特币受到了政府的冷漠对待。但是在美国，加拿大和大多数西方国家，情况有所不同。例如，美国最高证券监管机构 在麻省理工学院教授了有关加密货币的课程；监管商品市场的商品期货交易委员会是监管比特币衍生品的全球创新者；美国货币审计署最近批准银行为比特币提供托管服务。中央银行最关心的是金融稳定。没有什么比对一些武断的、毫无根据的镇压更能破坏价值1万亿美元的比特币市场了。其他加密货币稀释了比特币自2009年比特币上线以来，市场已经推出了数千种新的加密货币， 但对比特币的价格没有明显影响。这是有道理的。当我们从地球上开采更多锡时，会影响金的供应吗？不，因为它们是不相关的资产。一个相关的批评是，比特币的总供应量是不固定的，因为比特币可细分为微小的增量。要了解为什么这是错误的，请用比萨饼代替比特币：如果我们将一个比萨饼切成十亿块，我们是否有更多的比萨饼，更少的比萨饼或相同数量的比萨饼？我们当然是一样的。中央银行数字货币（CBDC）和公司货币将压垮比特币诚然，许多中央银行已经宣布了CBDC计划，但几乎没有超出概念验证阶段。唯一的例外是在中国，中国政府热衷于推出自己的数字货币， 以更好地监督该国的支出并将其覆盖范围扩展到其境外。企业数字货币（也称为稳定币）也不会威胁到比特币。实际上，他们可能会做相反的事情。 自2017年以来，所有流通中的稳定币的价值已飙升40倍，但随着越来越多的用户逐渐适应数字资产，比特币继续蓬勃发展。“轻松赚钱”正在将比特币推入泡沫领域的确，所有风险资产都已从加拿大银行、美联储和其他地方的宽松利率政策中受益。随着债券收益率的提高以及资金流向对经济更敏感的银行、能源公司等股票的转移，一些低利率的受益者（包括Shopify、Zoom和Peloton等高科技行业的高收益者）发生了超过30％以上的波动。比特币可能会在某个时候效仿，当然，明智的做法是，投资者应谨慎对待任何价值在不到一年的时间内像比特币一样增长超过500％的投资。也就是说，值得注意的是，比特币可能会从紧缩政策中受益，如果它预示着通货膨胀正在加速，因为许多投资者将比特币视为对冲消费者价格上涨的避险工具。我认为，比特币无疑是创新的催化剂，并可能成为我们全球金融体系未来的关键角色。几千年来，从贝壳壳到黏土片再到贵金属、钞票和银行结余，货币都在向未来迈出了一步。金钱正在变得数字化。购买比特币可能提供一种获得该未来机会的方法。但是，比特币不能保证成功，并且可能不是每个人的合适投资，它与任何新范例一样存在风险和不确定性。要了解比特币，请从事实开始。本文来自《财富》杂志，并经链捕手翻译。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"159945":1,"BTCmain":1,"CAN":1,"XBTmain":1,"EBON":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1811,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":337008598,"gmtCreate":1611020768614,"gmtModify":1704986703243,"author":{"id":"3557305548001793","authorId":"3557305548001793","name":"Ikhas","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a0fd7b69b3c00ecf9cc780ede0cf5943","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3557305548001793","idStr":"3557305548001793"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"666","listText":"666","text":"666","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/337008598","repostId":"332320921","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":332320921,"gmtCreate":1610340151463,"gmtModify":1704982982432,"author":{"id":"3514329116425907","authorId":"3514329116425907","name":"小虎AV","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/91101bd3142b32495c3131036d5f8afa","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3514329116425907","idStr":"3514329116425907"},"themes":[],"title":"信息量極大！新世界首富馬斯克最新訪談（66分鐘完整原版英字）","htmlText":"\n \n \n  投資未來，投資科技的一次教科書式的專訪。<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a>&nbsp;主要內容包括：1. 談新冠病毒：mRNA是醫學的未來2. 談戰略：主動併購不是特斯拉想要的3. 談競爭：特斯拉最厲害的對手或許來自中國（蔚來，比亞迪？）4. 談自動駕駛：我相信比人類駕駛更安全5. 談電池：鎳是最讓特斯拉頭疼的問題6. 談柏林工廠：效率和環境考量成爲選址原因7. 談個人財富：持股是給建火星城攢錢8. 談孩子：沒有人口過剩，人類應該生孩子9. 談成長：最有幫助的事情是閱讀（讀書吧，少年）10. 談AI：AI和人類或許會形成共生關係11. 談個人角色：我把自己定義成一名工程師（跟王傳福總一樣的口號）12. 談火星：兩三年後我可能會登陸火星13. 談興趣：喜歡電子音樂，還出了個人單曲還有一個非常科技、夢幻的開場和結尾。@全球視頻精選Premium的微博視頻\n \n","listText":"投資未來，投資科技的一次教科書式的專訪。<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a>&nbsp;主要內容包括：1. 談新冠病毒：mRNA是醫學的未來2. 談戰略：主動併購不是特斯拉想要的3. 談競爭：特斯拉最厲害的對手或許來自中國（蔚來，比亞迪？）4. 談自動駕駛：我相信比人類駕駛更安全5. 談電池：鎳是最讓特斯拉頭疼的問題6. 談柏林工廠：效率和環境考量成爲選址原因7. 談個人財富：持股是給建火星城攢錢8. 談孩子：沒有人口過剩，人類應該生孩子9. 談成長：最有幫助的事情是閱讀（讀書吧，少年）10. 談AI：AI和人類或許會形成共生關係11. 談個人角色：我把自己定義成一名工程師（跟王傳福總一樣的口號）12. 談火星：兩三年後我可能會登陸火星13. 談興趣：喜歡電子音樂，還出了個人單曲還有一個非常科技、夢幻的開場和結尾。@全球視頻精選Premium的微博視頻","text":"投資未來，投資科技的一次教科書式的專訪。$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 主要內容包括：1. 談新冠病毒：mRNA是醫學的未來2. 談戰略：主動併購不是特斯拉想要的3. 談競爭：特斯拉最厲害的對手或許來自中國（蔚來，比亞迪？）4. 談自動駕駛：我相信比人類駕駛更安全5. 談電池：鎳是最讓特斯拉頭疼的問題6. 談柏林工廠：效率和環境考量成爲選址原因7. 談個人財富：持股是給建火星城攢錢8. 談孩子：沒有人口過剩，人類應該生孩子9. 談成長：最有幫助的事情是閱讀（讀書吧，少年）10. 談AI：AI和人類或許會形成共生關係11. 談個人角色：我把自己定義成一名工程師（跟王傳福總一樣的口號）12. 談火星：兩三年後我可能會登陸火星13. 談興趣：喜歡電子音樂，還出了個人單曲還有一個非常科技、夢幻的開場和結尾。@全球視頻精選Premium的微博視頻","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/06bdf5b8d7bdc14e81accb1de5ea5ccd","width":"0","height":"0"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/332320921","isVote":1,"tweetType":2,"object":{"id":"9546fc993d08402787fc94211e261c20","tweetId":"332320921","videoUrl":"https://1254107296.vod2.myqcloud.com/27e1f7ecvodtransgzp1254107296/a7eefb085285890812560402864/v.f30.mp4","poster":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/06bdf5b8d7bdc14e81accb1de5ea5ccd"},"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1564,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":336883723,"gmtCreate":1610064249162,"gmtModify":1704981887168,"author":{"id":"3557305548001793","authorId":"3557305548001793","name":"Ikhas","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a0fd7b69b3c00ecf9cc780ede0cf5943","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3557305548001793","idStr":"3557305548001793"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"biden blue","listText":"biden blue","text":"biden blue","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/336883723","repostId":"1119023218","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1840,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":336318079,"gmtCreate":1610026698491,"gmtModify":1704981604628,"author":{"id":"3557305548001793","authorId":"3557305548001793","name":"Ikhas","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a0fd7b69b3c00ecf9cc780ede0cf5943","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3557305548001793","idStr":"3557305548001793"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"bt","listText":"bt","text":"bt","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/336318079","repostId":"336947928","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":336947928,"gmtCreate":1610018399958,"gmtModify":1704981545937,"author":{"id":"58341441844653","authorId":"58341441844653","name":"孟浩","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/483039f7d05988e78e38a07bc2e5c3db","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"58341441844653","idStr":"58341441844653"},"themes":[],"title":"比特幣大漲，帶來哪些投資機會？","htmlText":"今年比特幣的價格可以用不可思議來形容，昨天連創新高，比特幣突破36000美元之後，僅過了三個多小時後又暫突破37,000美元關口，續創紀錄高位。2020年以來對於比特幣來說是具有里程碑的一年，在這一年比特幣已上漲超300%，市場對於比特幣的認可度增加。本以爲比特幣或許會出現短暫回調的時候，結果，2021年，僅過了6天，就迎來了30%以上的漲幅，這篇文章想跟大家聊聊本輪比特幣上漲的邏輯？比特幣概念股都有哪些？ 比特幣上漲的原因 長期關注幣圈的朋友應該注意到比特幣暴漲暴跌是常態，但像是最近的這種單邊行情並不常見，那麼到底是什麼原因導致比特幣大漲呢？ 我認爲原因有3點，分別是： 1是疫情影響下，全球央行大放水，致使投資者對抗通脹的資產需求增加。爲穩定市場和經濟，各國央行的財政刺激規模空前，美國國會兩院高票通過最新一輪規模達9000億美元的刺激計劃。疫情爆發以來，美國政府共推出了3輪共約3萬億美元的財政刺激方案。在這種寬鬆貨幣政策下，全球通脹預期擡頭，市場對於抗通脹資產的需求大幅增加。 2&nbsp;是比特幣減半導致供應量減少，2020年5月比特幣第三次減半正式完成。比特幣依賴“挖礦”計算機，需要在一堆隨機數中找到符合要求的數值。系統平均每10分鐘將交易數據分組(即打包成一個塊)。最先找到“答案”的挖礦者獲得記賬權，同時獲得新比特幣作爲獎勵。系統規定，每隔21萬個區塊或大約四年，礦工獎勵減少一半。此舉旨在抑制通脹，理論上應該會推高比特幣價格。除卻這次之外，在歷史上，比特幣總共有2次減半，而每一次無疑都帶來了戲劇化行情，在2012年、2016年的減半事件中，比特幣價格第一次上漲了80倍、第二次上漲了20倍。正是基於對比特幣“減半行情”的預期，比特幣價格先行開漲。 3&nbsp;是華爾街巨頭入場，2020年以來，巨鯨用戶紛紛入場比特幣市場，比如知名數字資產信託機構灰度信託數字資產","listText":"今年比特幣的價格可以用不可思議來形容，昨天連創新高，比特幣突破36000美元之後，僅過了三個多小時後又暫突破37,000美元關口，續創紀錄高位。2020年以來對於比特幣來說是具有里程碑的一年，在這一年比特幣已上漲超300%，市場對於比特幣的認可度增加。本以爲比特幣或許會出現短暫回調的時候，結果，2021年，僅過了6天，就迎來了30%以上的漲幅，這篇文章想跟大家聊聊本輪比特幣上漲的邏輯？比特幣概念股都有哪些？ 比特幣上漲的原因 長期關注幣圈的朋友應該注意到比特幣暴漲暴跌是常態，但像是最近的這種單邊行情並不常見，那麼到底是什麼原因導致比特幣大漲呢？ 我認爲原因有3點，分別是： 1是疫情影響下，全球央行大放水，致使投資者對抗通脹的資產需求增加。爲穩定市場和經濟，各國央行的財政刺激規模空前，美國國會兩院高票通過最新一輪規模達9000億美元的刺激計劃。疫情爆發以來，美國政府共推出了3輪共約3萬億美元的財政刺激方案。在這種寬鬆貨幣政策下，全球通脹預期擡頭，市場對於抗通脹資產的需求大幅增加。 2&nbsp;是比特幣減半導致供應量減少，2020年5月比特幣第三次減半正式完成。比特幣依賴“挖礦”計算機，需要在一堆隨機數中找到符合要求的數值。系統平均每10分鐘將交易數據分組(即打包成一個塊)。最先找到“答案”的挖礦者獲得記賬權，同時獲得新比特幣作爲獎勵。系統規定，每隔21萬個區塊或大約四年，礦工獎勵減少一半。此舉旨在抑制通脹，理論上應該會推高比特幣價格。除卻這次之外，在歷史上，比特幣總共有2次減半，而每一次無疑都帶來了戲劇化行情，在2012年、2016年的減半事件中，比特幣價格第一次上漲了80倍、第二次上漲了20倍。正是基於對比特幣“減半行情”的預期，比特幣價格先行開漲。 3&nbsp;是華爾街巨頭入場，2020年以來，巨鯨用戶紛紛入場比特幣市場，比如知名數字資產信託機構灰度信託數字資產","text":"今年比特幣的價格可以用不可思議來形容，昨天連創新高，比特幣突破36000美元之後，僅過了三個多小時後又暫突破37,000美元關口，續創紀錄高位。2020年以來對於比特幣來說是具有里程碑的一年，在這一年比特幣已上漲超300%，市場對於比特幣的認可度增加。本以爲比特幣或許會出現短暫回調的時候，結果，2021年，僅過了6天，就迎來了30%以上的漲幅，這篇文章想跟大家聊聊本輪比特幣上漲的邏輯？比特幣概念股都有哪些？ 比特幣上漲的原因 長期關注幣圈的朋友應該注意到比特幣暴漲暴跌是常態，但像是最近的這種單邊行情並不常見，那麼到底是什麼原因導致比特幣大漲呢？ 我認爲原因有3點，分別是： 1是疫情影響下，全球央行大放水，致使投資者對抗通脹的資產需求增加。爲穩定市場和經濟，各國央行的財政刺激規模空前，美國國會兩院高票通過最新一輪規模達9000億美元的刺激計劃。疫情爆發以來，美國政府共推出了3輪共約3萬億美元的財政刺激方案。在這種寬鬆貨幣政策下，全球通脹預期擡頭，市場對於抗通脹資產的需求大幅增加。 2 是比特幣減半導致供應量減少，2020年5月比特幣第三次減半正式完成。比特幣依賴“挖礦”計算機，需要在一堆隨機數中找到符合要求的數值。系統平均每10分鐘將交易數據分組(即打包成一個塊)。最先找到“答案”的挖礦者獲得記賬權，同時獲得新比特幣作爲獎勵。系統規定，每隔21萬個區塊或大約四年，礦工獎勵減少一半。此舉旨在抑制通脹，理論上應該會推高比特幣價格。除卻這次之外，在歷史上，比特幣總共有2次減半，而每一次無疑都帶來了戲劇化行情，在2012年、2016年的減半事件中，比特幣價格第一次上漲了80倍、第二次上漲了20倍。正是基於對比特幣“減半行情”的預期，比特幣價格先行開漲。 3 是華爾街巨頭入場，2020年以來，巨鯨用戶紛紛入場比特幣市場，比如知名數字資產信託機構灰度信託數字資產","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3a235fe9d9b76dd3ee76d06e6e477cf4","width":"364","height":"200"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/408e8e4c31aff58f9453bf26469bd4a4","width":"858","height":"644"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cc4b578d83f506f8ef9235260042263f","width":"2600","height":"1424"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/336947928","isVote":2,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":1,"subType":2,"vote":{"id":1296,"gmtBegin":1610022434562,"gmtEnd":1610368017089,"type":1,"upper":1,"title":"你認爲比特幣還能漲嗎？","choices":[{"id":4883,"sort":1,"name":"還能漲","userSize":374,"voted":false},{"id":4884,"sort":2,"name":"該回調了","userSize":110,"voted":false},{"id":4885,"sort":3,"name":"圍觀","userSize":63,"voted":false}]},"comments":[],"imageCount":3,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1649,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":336985436,"gmtCreate":1610011003625,"gmtModify":1704981491173,"author":{"id":"3557305548001793","authorId":"3557305548001793","name":"Ikhas","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a0fd7b69b3c00ecf9cc780ede0cf5943","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3557305548001793","idStr":"3557305548001793"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"2020-2030","listText":"2020-2030","text":"2020-2030","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/336985436","repostId":"331651581","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":331651581,"gmtCreate":1609588800000,"gmtModify":1704979402598,"author":{"id":"3524105581449289","authorId":"3524105581449289","name":"扑克投资家","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ca993284400c72bf022739f5328f46cf","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3524105581449289","idStr":"3524105581449289"},"themes":[],"title":"10年之內，美國買房中國買股","htmlText":"作 者&nbsp;|&nbsp;財主家沒有餘糧啦 來&nbsp;源&nbsp;| 財主家的餘糧 正文 朋友問我，把時間限定在10年之內，不推薦黃金和比特幣的話，中國和美國，分別應該持有什麼資產？ 我回答說： 美國買房，中國買股。 除儲蓄之外，無論中國還是美國，可供普通人投資的三類資產，就是股票、債券和房地產，所謂投資，也無非就是這三種類資產之間如何切換的問題。 這三類資產規模龐大，流動性非常好——截止2020年底，全球的股市總市值100萬億美元（其中美國佔比50%左右），而債券市場規模高達130萬億美元，至於房地產市場，加起來大約是280萬億美元，比股票和債券加起來還要多。 這三類資產，一方面是全球目前規模最大的三類資產，流動性極好，方便普通人進入和退出； 另一方面，這也是各國政府鼓勵民衆持有的資產——這就是我所謂的“親政府資產”，所以，只要政府在，這些資產都是沒有問題的。 爲什麼推薦在美國買房子而不是買股票？ 我用一幅圖來說明原因。 這裏，從金融的角度，我有必要強調一下主流國家所謂“經濟發展”或“財富積累”的真相： 1）從社會四部門（政府、金融部門、非金融企業、家庭部門）來看，政府和金融部門只是在分配和轉移財富，並不參與真實財富創造，僅從實體經濟的角度來考慮，政府被稱爲公共部門，而非金融企業和家庭部門則被稱爲“私營部門”。 2）除基本的生產和消費活動之外，經濟（貨幣）擴張的途徑，在於私營部門非金融企業或家庭部門的信用擴張活動，也就是借債的能力——當非金融企業借貸之後，用於生產上的投資，創造利潤，帶來商品和服務的增加，而家庭部門借貸之後，主要用於購買房子，而房子則關聯着一系列的產業，從而促成經濟擴張，另有一部分用於消費，同樣擴大經濟擴張。 3）借貸過程，從貨幣端來看，（商業銀行）用這些借貸做抵押，從央行得到新的貨幣，這些貨幣在商業銀行和私營部門之間來回流轉（這就是貨幣乘數）","listText":"作 者&nbsp;|&nbsp;財主家沒有餘糧啦 來&nbsp;源&nbsp;| 財主家的餘糧 正文 朋友問我，把時間限定在10年之內，不推薦黃金和比特幣的話，中國和美國，分別應該持有什麼資產？ 我回答說： 美國買房，中國買股。 除儲蓄之外，無論中國還是美國，可供普通人投資的三類資產，就是股票、債券和房地產，所謂投資，也無非就是這三種類資產之間如何切換的問題。 這三類資產規模龐大，流動性非常好——截止2020年底，全球的股市總市值100萬億美元（其中美國佔比50%左右），而債券市場規模高達130萬億美元，至於房地產市場，加起來大約是280萬億美元，比股票和債券加起來還要多。 這三類資產，一方面是全球目前規模最大的三類資產，流動性極好，方便普通人進入和退出； 另一方面，這也是各國政府鼓勵民衆持有的資產——這就是我所謂的“親政府資產”，所以，只要政府在，這些資產都是沒有問題的。 爲什麼推薦在美國買房子而不是買股票？ 我用一幅圖來說明原因。 這裏，從金融的角度，我有必要強調一下主流國家所謂“經濟發展”或“財富積累”的真相： 1）從社會四部門（政府、金融部門、非金融企業、家庭部門）來看，政府和金融部門只是在分配和轉移財富，並不參與真實財富創造，僅從實體經濟的角度來考慮，政府被稱爲公共部門，而非金融企業和家庭部門則被稱爲“私營部門”。 2）除基本的生產和消費活動之外，經濟（貨幣）擴張的途徑，在於私營部門非金融企業或家庭部門的信用擴張活動，也就是借債的能力——當非金融企業借貸之後，用於生產上的投資，創造利潤，帶來商品和服務的增加，而家庭部門借貸之後，主要用於購買房子，而房子則關聯着一系列的產業，從而促成經濟擴張，另有一部分用於消費，同樣擴大經濟擴張。 3）借貸過程，從貨幣端來看，（商業銀行）用這些借貸做抵押，從央行得到新的貨幣，這些貨幣在商業銀行和私營部門之間來回流轉（這就是貨幣乘數）","text":"作 者 | 財主家沒有餘糧啦 來 源 | 財主家的餘糧 正文 朋友問我，把時間限定在10年之內，不推薦黃金和比特幣的話，中國和美國，分別應該持有什麼資產？ 我回答說： 美國買房，中國買股。 除儲蓄之外，無論中國還是美國，可供普通人投資的三類資產，就是股票、債券和房地產，所謂投資，也無非就是這三種類資產之間如何切換的問題。 這三類資產規模龐大，流動性非常好——截止2020年底，全球的股市總市值100萬億美元（其中美國佔比50%左右），而債券市場規模高達130萬億美元，至於房地產市場，加起來大約是280萬億美元，比股票和債券加起來還要多。 這三類資產，一方面是全球目前規模最大的三類資產，流動性極好，方便普通人進入和退出； 另一方面，這也是各國政府鼓勵民衆持有的資產——這就是我所謂的“親政府資產”，所以，只要政府在，這些資產都是沒有問題的。 爲什麼推薦在美國買房子而不是買股票？ 我用一幅圖來說明原因。 這裏，從金融的角度，我有必要強調一下主流國家所謂“經濟發展”或“財富積累”的真相： 1）從社會四部門（政府、金融部門、非金融企業、家庭部門）來看，政府和金融部門只是在分配和轉移財富，並不參與真實財富創造，僅從實體經濟的角度來考慮，政府被稱爲公共部門，而非金融企業和家庭部門則被稱爲“私營部門”。 2）除基本的生產和消費活動之外，經濟（貨幣）擴張的途徑，在於私營部門非金融企業或家庭部門的信用擴張活動，也就是借債的能力——當非金融企業借貸之後，用於生產上的投資，創造利潤，帶來商品和服務的增加，而家庭部門借貸之後，主要用於購買房子，而房子則關聯着一系列的產業，從而促成經濟擴張，另有一部分用於消費，同樣擴大經濟擴張。 3）借貸過程，從貨幣端來看，（商業銀行）用這些借貸做抵押，從央行得到新的貨幣，這些貨幣在商業銀行和私營部門之間來回流轉（這就是貨幣乘數）","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0c47abd3c9574111b4a4c88132b39a1c","width":"879","height":"443"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5c9ab431b31941a482178d774d6aa4a0","width":"500","height":"351"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/afff67841f804abdbfbc14fc53b2032d","width":"115","height":"18"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/331651581","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":7,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1436,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":338393020,"gmtCreate":1609824485260,"gmtModify":1704980235749,"author":{"id":"3557305548001793","authorId":"3557305548001793","name":"Ikhas","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a0fd7b69b3c00ecf9cc780ede0cf5943","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3557305548001793","idStr":"3557305548001793"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"sea ltd","listText":"sea ltd","text":"sea ltd","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/338393020","repostId":"331302390","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":331302390,"gmtCreate":1609425554702,"gmtModify":1704978979766,"author":{"id":"36979109942400","authorId":"36979109942400","name":"小虎周报","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/f7b172cf773c77a3f0df67695c126b51","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"36979109942400","idStr":"36979109942400"},"themes":[],"title":"2020年牛股大放送：哪些股票仍然值得期待？","htmlText":"今年可能是全球權益資產最具戲劇性的年份，疫情改變了行業格局，傳統企業如履薄冰，老牌豪門讓步於科技新秀，但總的說來，在2020年即將落下帷幕的這一刻，大部分權益都是豐收的姿態。 我們從過去的研報中精選了10家公司，其中包括5家美股，5家中概，他們都在今年取得了或不俗、或誇張的表現，我們相信，即便是明年，這些公司仍然會有精彩的故事，值得我們去關注。 1.Palantir：揭開擊殺本拉登的大數據平臺神祕面紗 一直保持神祕身份的大數據公司<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PLTR\">$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$</a> ，自從大選後就表現強勁，四季度期間累計漲幅達到164%。 身處大數據賽道，Palantir無論是在G端，還是B端，都給投資着留下了足夠大的想象力，加上公司深諳用戶業務邏輯，產品又解決用戶痛點，這也是不少投資者開始關注並喜歡上Palantir的原因。 目前公司的產品已經在航空領域獲得了不錯的聚集效應，未來估值的擴張則取決於行業的拓展和滲透程度，2021年Palantir能否破圈，必然值得我們期待。<a href=\"https://www.laohu8.com/post/399843599\" target=\"_blank\">《Palantir：揭祕擊殺本拉登的大數據平臺神祕面紗》</a>202011232.Square：“美版支付寶”如何顛覆移動支付市場？ 可能時至今日，把<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GBTC\">$比特幣基金(GBTC)$</a> 和<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SQ\">$Square, Inc(SQ)$</a> 聯繫到一起的投資者也","listText":"今年可能是全球權益資產最具戲劇性的年份，疫情改變了行業格局，傳統企業如履薄冰，老牌豪門讓步於科技新秀，但總的說來，在2020年即將落下帷幕的這一刻，大部分權益都是豐收的姿態。 我們從過去的研報中精選了10家公司，其中包括5家美股，5家中概，他們都在今年取得了或不俗、或誇張的表現，我們相信，即便是明年，這些公司仍然會有精彩的故事，值得我們去關注。 1.Palantir：揭開擊殺本拉登的大數據平臺神祕面紗 一直保持神祕身份的大數據公司<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PLTR\">$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$</a> ，自從大選後就表現強勁，四季度期間累計漲幅達到164%。 身處大數據賽道，Palantir無論是在G端，還是B端，都給投資着留下了足夠大的想象力，加上公司深諳用戶業務邏輯，產品又解決用戶痛點，這也是不少投資者開始關注並喜歡上Palantir的原因。 目前公司的產品已經在航空領域獲得了不錯的聚集效應，未來估值的擴張則取決於行業的拓展和滲透程度，2021年Palantir能否破圈，必然值得我們期待。<a href=\"https://www.laohu8.com/post/399843599\" target=\"_blank\">《Palantir：揭祕擊殺本拉登的大數據平臺神祕面紗》</a>202011232.Square：“美版支付寶”如何顛覆移動支付市場？ 可能時至今日，把<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GBTC\">$比特幣基金(GBTC)$</a> 和<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SQ\">$Square, Inc(SQ)$</a> 聯繫到一起的投資者也","text":"今年可能是全球權益資產最具戲劇性的年份，疫情改變了行業格局，傳統企業如履薄冰，老牌豪門讓步於科技新秀，但總的說來，在2020年即將落下帷幕的這一刻，大部分權益都是豐收的姿態。 我們從過去的研報中精選了10家公司，其中包括5家美股，5家中概，他們都在今年取得了或不俗、或誇張的表現，我們相信，即便是明年，這些公司仍然會有精彩的故事，值得我們去關注。 1.Palantir：揭開擊殺本拉登的大數據平臺神祕面紗 一直保持神祕身份的大數據公司$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$ ，自從大選後就表現強勁，四季度期間累計漲幅達到164%。 身處大數據賽道，Palantir無論是在G端，還是B端，都給投資着留下了足夠大的想象力，加上公司深諳用戶業務邏輯，產品又解決用戶痛點，這也是不少投資者開始關注並喜歡上Palantir的原因。 目前公司的產品已經在航空領域獲得了不錯的聚集效應，未來估值的擴張則取決於行業的拓展和滲透程度，2021年Palantir能否破圈，必然值得我們期待。《Palantir：揭祕擊殺本拉登的大數據平臺神祕面紗》202011232.Square：“美版支付寶”如何顛覆移動支付市場？ 可能時至今日，把$比特幣基金(GBTC)$ 和$Square, Inc(SQ)$ 聯繫到一起的投資者也","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d00a1f4a9cd0194073555df8b8968ff0","width":"840","height":"470"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ebd63393d5fb5385bb20e71d176a4873","width":"840","height":"470"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/47878b7f01ce6f24f5b841b68907d456","width":"840","height":"470"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/331302390","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":10,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1738,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":331241242,"gmtCreate":1609683647286,"gmtModify":1704979540486,"author":{"id":"3557305548001793","authorId":"3557305548001793","name":"Ikhas","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a0fd7b69b3c00ecf9cc780ede0cf5943","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3557305548001793","idStr":"3557305548001793"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"tesla","listText":"tesla","text":"tesla","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/331241242","repostId":"2100365559","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2100365559","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1609677553,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2100365559?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-01-03 20:39","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"What is the real confidence of Tesla's price reduction? — Software! Software! Software!","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2100365559","media":"计算机司令部","summary":"事件回顾2021年1月1日，特斯拉正式宣布，中国制造Model Y以及全新Model 3正式发售。有报道称，有车主甚至连夜退订此前认购的国产新势力车型，并将目光投向特斯拉。我们认为特斯拉降价的真正底气软件！其中，OTA付费升级以及高级车联网功能两块业务是特斯拉从2019年开始逐步发力的软件业务。现阶段，FSD是特斯拉最核心的应用软件，其软件收入也主要由FSD选装包贡献。多方数据佐证，上述预计的特斯拉FSD激活率及现金收","content":"<p><html><body><article>Event Review</p><p>January 1, 2021,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>It was officially announced that the Model Y made in China and the new Model 3 were officially released. According to Tesla China's official website, the starting price of the Model Y long-range version is 339,900 yuan, compared with 488,000 yuan previously, which is down by 148,100 yuan. The Model Y Performance high-performance version starts at 369,900 yuan, compared with 535,000 yuan previously, a decrease of 165,100 yuan. In addition, Tesla released the facelifted domestic Model 3, among which the upgraded Model 3 (standard range version) added electric tailgate, heat pump air conditioning, double-layer soundproof glass and other configurations compared with the old Model, and the price remained 249,900 yuan; The long-range version of Model 3, originally priced at 309,900 yuan, was removed from the shelves, and the price of the high-performance version of Model 3 dropped from 419,000 yuan to 339,900 yuan.</p><p>The drop of more than 100,000 yuan made Model Y directly kill the price range of some main models of domestic new forces, which also brought greater competitive pressure to domestic new energy vehicle companies. It is reported that some car owners even unsubscribed from previously subscribed domestic new power models overnight and set their sights on Tesla.</p><p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20210103204309124v235rhls52ohefz\"/><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20210103204312572v2353cmf474o1yu\"/>Source: Tesla's official website, Essence Securities Research Center</p><p>Possible reasons behind the price reduction</p><p><strong>Reason</strong></p><p><strong>Lower costs after continuous innovation?</strong></p><p>Tesla learned from the problem of excessive redundancy in the frame design of the Model 3, simplified the body structure of the Model Y, improved the integration of the car body, accelerated the production speed, and reduced the production cost. The Model Y uses a lot of casting process on the low center of gravity, sturdy structure and collision protection side of the white body, and compared with the Model 3, the white body parts are significantly reduced. Although the standard range version of Model Y has not been launched because its battery life has not reached Musk's standard, the use of lithium iron phosphate battery, supplemented by the experience of optimizing software and performance to improve the cruising range, may help the standard range version of Model Y break through the 230-mile cruising range limit, achieve market sales, and lower the price of Model Y. In addition, at present, the domestic version of Model Y uses LG's ternary lithium battery, which is relatively expensive and will be equipped later<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300750\">CATL</a>The cost of the domestic version of Model Y of lithium iron phosphate battery is expected to fall further.</p><p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20210103204314011v235700jrq7rogb\"/><strong>Reason</strong></p><p><strong>A benign closed loop after continuous price cuts?</strong></p><p>According to the data, in the second half of 2019, the price of the standard range version of Model 3 has been adjusted five times, and the adjusted prices are 355,800/299,100/303,600/271,500/249,900 respectively. Model 3 has become one of the most cost-effective high-end medium-sized cars in China; In addition, the long-range Model 3, which was launched in May 2020, has already had its price adjusted once. It can be seen that every price reduction of domestic Model 3 will bring about an increase in sales. In November 2020, the sales volume of Model 3 has exceeded 20,000 units, and the cumulative sales volume of domestic Model 3 from January to November 2020 reached 115,400 units. The continuous price reduction has driven the increase in sales volume, which has rapidly increased Tesla's ownership in China. In addition, Tesla's continuous product innovation and optimized practicality have attracted more consumers, forming a virtuous circle.</p><p><img src=\"https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/rPn8EmBF38piaJmickz0F39KV1iaicJhSQ9ud7TvDIiaJykTAGDUQ7IOsyDzPA0L9dk59e3PDyQHvfQAcicVLibhSnpUQ/640?wx_fmt=png\"/>We Think Tesla's Real Confidence in Price Cuts</p><p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20210103204329887v235o9p38wsli2k\"/><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20210103204330865v235pyzyojl3t0p\"/><strong>Software! Software! Software!</strong></p><p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20210103204331825v235v6kt484tdbm\"/><img src=\"https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_gif/rPn8EmBF38piaJmickz0F39KV1iaicJhSQ9uzUgEygftib3uEVyJOPgXgGv1iaXdcDjRdGopZXuHIzgTiaf7A42ygwADA/640?wx_fmt=gif\"/><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20210103204352904v235gifmh82rey7\"/><strong>Reason</strong></p><p><strong>Business Model Accelerating to \"Apple</strong>Fruit \"closer</p><p>Compared with traditional car companies, Tesla is more like a technology company of TO C. We noted in previous reports that the Tesla class \"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>\"The cornerstone of the establishment of the business model is to create an epoch-making<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/5RE.SI\">smart</a>Automobile, the representative of new domestic forces in car manufacturing<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">Li Auto</a>Founder Li Xiang once commented: \"Tesla is the only smart car in the world at present\". Tesla is based on software + hardware (highly integrated electronic and electrical architecture), and uses the whole vehicle OTA as a bridge, which can realize the continuous upgrading and common use of cars. To summarize the intelligence level of Tesla cars in one sentence, it is to truly upgrade cars from \"functional machines\" to \"smart machines\". Observing the industry, we can see that traditional car companies are also catching up and copying Tesla's OTA capabilities, but we think that they are more similar in appearance than different in spirit. The biggest problem of traditional car companies doing whole vehicle OTA is that they are essentially To B companies, and do not directly face users. \"Users\" are channel dealer networks, so they can't hear a lot of voices from users. Not to mention the subsequent opening of the front-end voice from users and the research and development of the back-end engineering department, and then completing the continuous iteration and upgrading of the vehicle based on the whole vehicle OTA. Compared with the To B attribute of traditional car companies, Tesla is more like a To C technology company in terms of corporate culture, organizational structure and technical level, and it can also upgrade cars from \"functional machines\" To \"intelligent machines\".</p><p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20210103204354004v235ugntdz5ads9\"/><strong>Reason</strong></p><p><strong>Software Business Contributes to the Future<span>Gross profit</span></strong></p><p>Tesla is really becoming more and more like Apple, and its software business (FSD) is expected to contribute 1/4 of the gross profit of the automotive business in 2025. In our report \"Epoch-making New Species: Tesla is Becoming More and More Apple-like\" released in February 2020, we repeatedly emphasized that Tesla is the \"Apple\" of the automotive world, and software will be a core component of its business model. Through the previous quantitative analysis, we predict that Tesla's software business (FSD) is expected to contribute 1/4 of the gross profit of the automobile business in 2025, and the financial data will also more reflect Tesla's software and technology attributes.</p><p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20210103204354704v235q02n30wbh2r\"/>Where did the idea of defining Tesla in software come from</p><p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20210103204354993v235710f2oqpt8v\"/><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20210103204355344v235gb69svccres\"/><strong>Secrets hidden in earnings reports</strong></p><p><strong>Software cash revenue accumulated over $1 billion</strong></p><p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20210103204356108v235yweivmdlt0s\"/><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20210103204356740v235068ingncaht\"/>Autopilot FSD is Tesla's core application software. At present, Tesla has not separately disclosed the revenue of its software business in its financial report. By analyzing the company's business details, we can divide its software revenue into three parts, specifically:</p><p><strong>01</strong></p><p>Autopilot FSD (Full Self-Driving)</p><p>Full Self-Driving Option Package</p><p>Tesla's famous self-driving function can also be said to be the soul of Tesla cars. After paying for activation, consumers can enjoy advanced autonomous driving functions including automatic parking, automatic assisted navigation driving, intelligent summoning, etc., and can continuously upgrade their autonomous driving capabilities through OTA air software in the future. On July 1, 2020, its price has risen to $8,000/set (domestic 64,000 yuan/set).</p><p><strong>02</strong></p><p>OTA paid upgrade</p><p>Tesla's previous OTA upgrade of software was basically provided free of charge. Since 2019, Tesla has actively tried OTA paid upgrades. A typical case is the \"Acceleration Boost\" Acceleration performance upgrade package. Model 3 owners can boost their car's 100 km/h performance from 4.6s to 4.1s for just $3,000.</p><p><strong>03</strong></p><p>Advanced Internet of Vehicles Features</p><p>Since Q4 2019, Tesla has opened the premium connectivity service charge for Internet of Vehicles for the first time ($9.9/month). After paying the service fee, car owners can use advanced Internet of Vehicles functions such as real-time road conditions, karaoke and streaming media.</p><p>Among them, OTA paid upgrade and advanced Internet of Vehicles functions are the software businesses that Tesla has gradually developed since 2019. At this stage, FSD is Tesla's core application software, and its software revenue is mainly contributed by FSD optional packages.</p><p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20210103204407832v235fhgs7sa2ab9\"/><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20210103204408413v235cfciyovp135\"/><strong>Revealing Key Variables of Tesla's FSD Revenue</strong></p><p><strong>DEFERRED INCOME</strong></p><p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20210103204409706v235t0e1t2th79x\"/><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20210103204415460v2356myg2e5m990\"/>Because Tesla does not disclose FSD's revenue volume in its financial report, investors lack an open and transparent way to track its business development. After an in-depth analysis of Tesla's earnings report, we found the core variable that can reveal Tesla's FSD revenue – deferred revenue. Tesla's CFO Zachary Kirkhorn opened the concept of software \"deferred revenue\" at the 2020 Q1 performance explanation meeting and detailed the financial recognition rules of FSD revenue:</p><p>1) When consumers choose to activate the FSD suite, Tesla will receive $6,000 (now up to $8,000) in cash, half of which the company will recognize as current revenue and the other half as deferred revenue.</p><p>2) The recognition rule of subsequent income is that when Tesla adds a new function to FSD, the deferred income balance can be converted into current income. For example, in Q3 2019, the company added a new feature Smart Summon to its FSD, so it recognized $30 million in deferred revenue in that quarter.</p><p>According to Zachary Kirkhorn's disclosure, Tesla's FSD deferred revenue has exceeded $600 million as of Q1 2020.</p><p><img src=\"https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/rPn8EmBF38piaJmickz0F39KV1iaicJhSQ9uggawzngkRWyz5Hr75a9EvfArNDwqWHzQd0Klb3MNF8picYRZSKiaxK2w/640?wx_fmt=png\"/>Based on the core variable-deferred revenue, we can calculate that the activation rate of Tesla's FSD exceeds 25%, and the accumulated cash income of FSD exceeds US$1 billion. According to the relationship shown in the figure below, through the key variable-deferred revenue, we can back-calculate the Tesla FSD activation rate and the cash income of accumulated FSD. We expect the overall activation rate of Tesla FSD to exceed 25%, and the cumulative cash income of FSD will reach $1.26 billion, of which FSD's cash in 2019 will reach $560 million.</p><p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20210103204433081v235o6hndmu6rr9\"/>As evidenced by multiple data, the above-mentioned estimated Tesla FSD activation rate and cash income are basically consistent with the reality. 1) According to US tech outlet Electrek, as of 2019, Tesla's revenue from the sale of FSD kits has exceeded $1 billion. 2）<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DB\">Deutsche Bank</a>(Deutsche Bank) predicted in the Tesla report \"Positive takeaways from Tesla investor meetings\" issued on May 11, 2020 that the overall activation rate of Tesla FSD is roughly 25%-30%, and it is mainly concentrated in the U.S. market. 3）<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a>（<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSTLW\">Morgan Stanley</a>) In the Tesla report \"Tesla: In 5 Key Debates\" issued on October 2, 2019, it was estimated that the overall activation rate of Tesla FSD is roughly around 30%.</p><p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20210103204444114v235kviq2e3vh21\"/><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20210103204444845v235f9eokw4a7dm\"/><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20210103204445420v235ncms5bwwpbr\"/><strong>Future forecasts</strong></p><p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20210103204445889v235j46c51267oi\"/><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20210103204446515v235ylnm66nr60q\"/>The analysis framework of the commercial potential of Tesla's software business-in the short term, it mainly depends on the continuous improvement of three variables: automobile sales, activation rate and unit price, and the change of business model in the medium and long term. From Musk's perspective, selling cars is just the beginning, and software service charging is its core business model in the future. For the evaluation of the commercial potential of Tesla's software business (Note: This article focuses on FSD business, and will not analyze other software businesses such as OTA paid upgrade and advanced Internet of Vehicles for the time being), we believe that we can consider it from two dimensions: short-term and medium-and long-term:</p><p>1) Short-term: Without changing the business model of one-time charging for pre-installation, Tesla's software business is mainly driven by three variables: automobile sales, activation rate and unit price</p><p>2) Medium and long term: Musk is actively promoting the transformation of FSD from a one-time pre-installation charging model to a continuous charging model for subscription services. According to tech outlet electrek, Tesla is on track to launch an FSD subscription service before the end of the year, which costs around $100 per month. Once the business model switch for the software subscription service is completed, each FSD-activated vehicle sold is expected to contribute continuous cash flow to Tesla.</p><p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20210103204453320v235dzotu4s5893\"/>In the short term, we expect FSD to generate nearly $7 billion in revenue in 2025, accounting for nearly 9% of Tesla's automotive business revenue and contributing 25% of its automotive business gross profit. Based on the previous analysis of the three major variables of car sales, activation rate and unit price, we have made a financial forecast of Tesla FSD's revenue (see Appendix 2 for detailed data). It is estimated that FSD's revenue will be nearly 7 billion USD in 2025, accounting for nearly 9% of Tesla's automobile business revenue and contributing 25% of the gross profit of automobile business.</p><p>In the medium and long term, FSD will switch to the business model of software subscription service with high probability, and it is estimated that the subscription service revenue in 2030 is expected to exceed 16 billion USD/year. Under the software subscription service mode, the early consumption threshold of FSD is further lowered, which is conducive to improving consumers' purchase rate, and it is also in line with the business model of continuous software charging advocated by Musk. In the future, FSD will switch to the business model of software subscription service with high probability. Based on the software subscription service model, we predict that Tesla will have more than 18 million existing owner users in 2030, of which nearly 80% will become subscription paying users of FSD, and the subscription service fee of FSD will reach 16 billion USD/year.</p><p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20210103204454572v235ewchfvj37nu\"/>Different from the traditional analysis, through the quantitative analysis of Tesla's software business, we can clearly see the value of software business represented by autonomous driving to OEMs. We believe that Tesla is only the beginning of the wave of intelligence and networking in the automobile industry. Driven by 5G + AI, the investment opportunities of the big wave of automobile electronics industry change may be more amazing than those of Apple's industrial chain 10 years ago!</p><p><strong>Disclaimer</strong></p><p>This report is for the use of clients of Essence Securities Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as the \"Company\") only. The Company will not treat any institution or individual as an ex-officio customer of the Company because of the receipt of this report.</p><p>This report is based on publicly available information or information, but the Company does not guarantee the completeness and accuracy of such information and information. The information, information, recommendations and speculations contained in this report reflect only the judgment of the Company as at the date of this report, and the prices, values and income generated from the investments of the securities or investments in this report may fluctuate. At different times, the Company may write and issue reports that are inconsistent with the information, recommendations and speculations contained in this report. The Company does not guarantee that the information and information contained in this report will be kept up-to-date, and the Company will supplement, update and revise the relevant information and information at any time, but does not guarantee that it will be published in a timely manner. At the same time, the Company has the right to amend the information contained in this report without giving notice, and investors should pay attention to the corresponding updates or modifications. Any summary or excerpt in relation to this report does not represent a formal and complete view of this report, and all shall be subject to the full version of this report issued by the Company to the client, who may consult the investment adviser of the Company for further consultation if necessary.</p><p>Where permitted by law, the Company and its affiliates may hold securities or options issued by the companies mentioned in the report and conduct securities or options transactions, or may provide or seek to provide investment banking, financial advisory or financial products and other related services to these companies to draw the full attention of customers. Customers should not regard this report as the sole reference factor in making their investment decisions, nor should they consider this report as a substitute for their own investment judgments and decisions. Under no circumstances does the information or opinions expressed in this report constitute investment advice to anyone, whether expressed or implied, and this report cannot be used as a moral, liable and legal basis or evidence. In no event shall the Company be liable to any person for any loss arising from the use of any of the contents of this report.</p><p>The copyright of this report is solely owned by the Company, and no institution or individual may reproduce, reproduce, publish, forward or quote any part of this report in any form without prior written permission. If quoted or published with the consent of the Company, it shall be used within the permitted scope, and the source shall be indicated as \"Research Center of Essence Securities Co., Ltd.\", and no quotation, deletion or modification of this report which is contrary to the original intention shall be made.</p><p>Essence Securities Co., Ltd. has the sole right to modify and finally interpret the terms of this statement.</p><p></article></body></html></p>","source":"tencent","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>What is the real confidence of Tesla's price reduction? — Software! Software! Software!</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhat is the real confidence of Tesla's price reduction? — Software! Software! Software!\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">计算机司令部</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-01-03 20:39</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><body><article>Event Review</p><p>January 1, 2021,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>It was officially announced that the Model Y made in China and the new Model 3 were officially released. According to Tesla China's official website, the starting price of the Model Y long-range version is 339,900 yuan, compared with 488,000 yuan previously, which is down by 148,100 yuan. The Model Y Performance high-performance version starts at 369,900 yuan, compared with 535,000 yuan previously, a decrease of 165,100 yuan. In addition, Tesla released the facelifted domestic Model 3, among which the upgraded Model 3 (standard range version) added electric tailgate, heat pump air conditioning, double-layer soundproof glass and other configurations compared with the old Model, and the price remained 249,900 yuan; The long-range version of Model 3, originally priced at 309,900 yuan, was removed from the shelves, and the price of the high-performance version of Model 3 dropped from 419,000 yuan to 339,900 yuan.</p><p>The drop of more than 100,000 yuan made Model Y directly kill the price range of some main models of domestic new forces, which also brought greater competitive pressure to domestic new energy vehicle companies. It is reported that some car owners even unsubscribed from previously subscribed domestic new power models overnight and set their sights on Tesla.</p><p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20210103204309124v235rhls52ohefz\"/><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20210103204312572v2353cmf474o1yu\"/>Source: Tesla's official website, Essence Securities Research Center</p><p>Possible reasons behind the price reduction</p><p><strong>Reason</strong></p><p><strong>Lower costs after continuous innovation?</strong></p><p>Tesla learned from the problem of excessive redundancy in the frame design of the Model 3, simplified the body structure of the Model Y, improved the integration of the car body, accelerated the production speed, and reduced the production cost. The Model Y uses a lot of casting process on the low center of gravity, sturdy structure and collision protection side of the white body, and compared with the Model 3, the white body parts are significantly reduced. Although the standard range version of Model Y has not been launched because its battery life has not reached Musk's standard, the use of lithium iron phosphate battery, supplemented by the experience of optimizing software and performance to improve the cruising range, may help the standard range version of Model Y break through the 230-mile cruising range limit, achieve market sales, and lower the price of Model Y. In addition, at present, the domestic version of Model Y uses LG's ternary lithium battery, which is relatively expensive and will be equipped later<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300750\">CATL</a>The cost of the domestic version of Model Y of lithium iron phosphate battery is expected to fall further.</p><p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20210103204314011v235700jrq7rogb\"/><strong>Reason</strong></p><p><strong>A benign closed loop after continuous price cuts?</strong></p><p>According to the data, in the second half of 2019, the price of the standard range version of Model 3 has been adjusted five times, and the adjusted prices are 355,800/299,100/303,600/271,500/249,900 respectively. Model 3 has become one of the most cost-effective high-end medium-sized cars in China; In addition, the long-range Model 3, which was launched in May 2020, has already had its price adjusted once. It can be seen that every price reduction of domestic Model 3 will bring about an increase in sales. In November 2020, the sales volume of Model 3 has exceeded 20,000 units, and the cumulative sales volume of domestic Model 3 from January to November 2020 reached 115,400 units. The continuous price reduction has driven the increase in sales volume, which has rapidly increased Tesla's ownership in China. In addition, Tesla's continuous product innovation and optimized practicality have attracted more consumers, forming a virtuous circle.</p><p><img src=\"https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/rPn8EmBF38piaJmickz0F39KV1iaicJhSQ9ud7TvDIiaJykTAGDUQ7IOsyDzPA0L9dk59e3PDyQHvfQAcicVLibhSnpUQ/640?wx_fmt=png\"/>We Think Tesla's Real Confidence in Price Cuts</p><p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20210103204329887v235o9p38wsli2k\"/><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20210103204330865v235pyzyojl3t0p\"/><strong>Software! Software! Software!</strong></p><p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20210103204331825v235v6kt484tdbm\"/><img src=\"https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_gif/rPn8EmBF38piaJmickz0F39KV1iaicJhSQ9uzUgEygftib3uEVyJOPgXgGv1iaXdcDjRdGopZXuHIzgTiaf7A42ygwADA/640?wx_fmt=gif\"/><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20210103204352904v235gifmh82rey7\"/><strong>Reason</strong></p><p><strong>Business Model Accelerating to \"Apple</strong>Fruit \"closer</p><p>Compared with traditional car companies, Tesla is more like a technology company of TO C. We noted in previous reports that the Tesla class \"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>\"The cornerstone of the establishment of the business model is to create an epoch-making<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/5RE.SI\">smart</a>Automobile, the representative of new domestic forces in car manufacturing<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">Li Auto</a>Founder Li Xiang once commented: \"Tesla is the only smart car in the world at present\". Tesla is based on software + hardware (highly integrated electronic and electrical architecture), and uses the whole vehicle OTA as a bridge, which can realize the continuous upgrading and common use of cars. To summarize the intelligence level of Tesla cars in one sentence, it is to truly upgrade cars from \"functional machines\" to \"smart machines\". Observing the industry, we can see that traditional car companies are also catching up and copying Tesla's OTA capabilities, but we think that they are more similar in appearance than different in spirit. The biggest problem of traditional car companies doing whole vehicle OTA is that they are essentially To B companies, and do not directly face users. \"Users\" are channel dealer networks, so they can't hear a lot of voices from users. Not to mention the subsequent opening of the front-end voice from users and the research and development of the back-end engineering department, and then completing the continuous iteration and upgrading of the vehicle based on the whole vehicle OTA. Compared with the To B attribute of traditional car companies, Tesla is more like a To C technology company in terms of corporate culture, organizational structure and technical level, and it can also upgrade cars from \"functional machines\" To \"intelligent machines\".</p><p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20210103204354004v235ugntdz5ads9\"/><strong>Reason</strong></p><p><strong>Software Business Contributes to the Future<span>Gross profit</span></strong></p><p>Tesla is really becoming more and more like Apple, and its software business (FSD) is expected to contribute 1/4 of the gross profit of the automotive business in 2025. In our report \"Epoch-making New Species: Tesla is Becoming More and More Apple-like\" released in February 2020, we repeatedly emphasized that Tesla is the \"Apple\" of the automotive world, and software will be a core component of its business model. Through the previous quantitative analysis, we predict that Tesla's software business (FSD) is expected to contribute 1/4 of the gross profit of the automobile business in 2025, and the financial data will also more reflect Tesla's software and technology attributes.</p><p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20210103204354704v235q02n30wbh2r\"/>Where did the idea of defining Tesla in software come from</p><p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20210103204354993v235710f2oqpt8v\"/><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20210103204355344v235gb69svccres\"/><strong>Secrets hidden in earnings reports</strong></p><p><strong>Software cash revenue accumulated over $1 billion</strong></p><p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20210103204356108v235yweivmdlt0s\"/><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20210103204356740v235068ingncaht\"/>Autopilot FSD is Tesla's core application software. At present, Tesla has not separately disclosed the revenue of its software business in its financial report. By analyzing the company's business details, we can divide its software revenue into three parts, specifically:</p><p><strong>01</strong></p><p>Autopilot FSD (Full Self-Driving)</p><p>Full Self-Driving Option Package</p><p>Tesla's famous self-driving function can also be said to be the soul of Tesla cars. After paying for activation, consumers can enjoy advanced autonomous driving functions including automatic parking, automatic assisted navigation driving, intelligent summoning, etc., and can continuously upgrade their autonomous driving capabilities through OTA air software in the future. On July 1, 2020, its price has risen to $8,000/set (domestic 64,000 yuan/set).</p><p><strong>02</strong></p><p>OTA paid upgrade</p><p>Tesla's previous OTA upgrade of software was basically provided free of charge. Since 2019, Tesla has actively tried OTA paid upgrades. A typical case is the \"Acceleration Boost\" Acceleration performance upgrade package. Model 3 owners can boost their car's 100 km/h performance from 4.6s to 4.1s for just $3,000.</p><p><strong>03</strong></p><p>Advanced Internet of Vehicles Features</p><p>Since Q4 2019, Tesla has opened the premium connectivity service charge for Internet of Vehicles for the first time ($9.9/month). After paying the service fee, car owners can use advanced Internet of Vehicles functions such as real-time road conditions, karaoke and streaming media.</p><p>Among them, OTA paid upgrade and advanced Internet of Vehicles functions are the software businesses that Tesla has gradually developed since 2019. At this stage, FSD is Tesla's core application software, and its software revenue is mainly contributed by FSD optional packages.</p><p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20210103204407832v235fhgs7sa2ab9\"/><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20210103204408413v235cfciyovp135\"/><strong>Revealing Key Variables of Tesla's FSD Revenue</strong></p><p><strong>DEFERRED INCOME</strong></p><p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20210103204409706v235t0e1t2th79x\"/><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20210103204415460v2356myg2e5m990\"/>Because Tesla does not disclose FSD's revenue volume in its financial report, investors lack an open and transparent way to track its business development. After an in-depth analysis of Tesla's earnings report, we found the core variable that can reveal Tesla's FSD revenue – deferred revenue. Tesla's CFO Zachary Kirkhorn opened the concept of software \"deferred revenue\" at the 2020 Q1 performance explanation meeting and detailed the financial recognition rules of FSD revenue:</p><p>1) When consumers choose to activate the FSD suite, Tesla will receive $6,000 (now up to $8,000) in cash, half of which the company will recognize as current revenue and the other half as deferred revenue.</p><p>2) The recognition rule of subsequent income is that when Tesla adds a new function to FSD, the deferred income balance can be converted into current income. For example, in Q3 2019, the company added a new feature Smart Summon to its FSD, so it recognized $30 million in deferred revenue in that quarter.</p><p>According to Zachary Kirkhorn's disclosure, Tesla's FSD deferred revenue has exceeded $600 million as of Q1 2020.</p><p><img src=\"https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/rPn8EmBF38piaJmickz0F39KV1iaicJhSQ9uggawzngkRWyz5Hr75a9EvfArNDwqWHzQd0Klb3MNF8picYRZSKiaxK2w/640?wx_fmt=png\"/>Based on the core variable-deferred revenue, we can calculate that the activation rate of Tesla's FSD exceeds 25%, and the accumulated cash income of FSD exceeds US$1 billion. According to the relationship shown in the figure below, through the key variable-deferred revenue, we can back-calculate the Tesla FSD activation rate and the cash income of accumulated FSD. We expect the overall activation rate of Tesla FSD to exceed 25%, and the cumulative cash income of FSD will reach $1.26 billion, of which FSD's cash in 2019 will reach $560 million.</p><p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20210103204433081v235o6hndmu6rr9\"/>As evidenced by multiple data, the above-mentioned estimated Tesla FSD activation rate and cash income are basically consistent with the reality. 1) According to US tech outlet Electrek, as of 2019, Tesla's revenue from the sale of FSD kits has exceeded $1 billion. 2）<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DB\">Deutsche Bank</a>(Deutsche Bank) predicted in the Tesla report \"Positive takeaways from Tesla investor meetings\" issued on May 11, 2020 that the overall activation rate of Tesla FSD is roughly 25%-30%, and it is mainly concentrated in the U.S. market. 3）<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a>（<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSTLW\">Morgan Stanley</a>) In the Tesla report \"Tesla: In 5 Key Debates\" issued on October 2, 2019, it was estimated that the overall activation rate of Tesla FSD is roughly around 30%.</p><p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20210103204444114v235kviq2e3vh21\"/><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20210103204444845v235f9eokw4a7dm\"/><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20210103204445420v235ncms5bwwpbr\"/><strong>Future forecasts</strong></p><p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20210103204445889v235j46c51267oi\"/><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20210103204446515v235ylnm66nr60q\"/>The analysis framework of the commercial potential of Tesla's software business-in the short term, it mainly depends on the continuous improvement of three variables: automobile sales, activation rate and unit price, and the change of business model in the medium and long term. From Musk's perspective, selling cars is just the beginning, and software service charging is its core business model in the future. For the evaluation of the commercial potential of Tesla's software business (Note: This article focuses on FSD business, and will not analyze other software businesses such as OTA paid upgrade and advanced Internet of Vehicles for the time being), we believe that we can consider it from two dimensions: short-term and medium-and long-term:</p><p>1) Short-term: Without changing the business model of one-time charging for pre-installation, Tesla's software business is mainly driven by three variables: automobile sales, activation rate and unit price</p><p>2) Medium and long term: Musk is actively promoting the transformation of FSD from a one-time pre-installation charging model to a continuous charging model for subscription services. According to tech outlet electrek, Tesla is on track to launch an FSD subscription service before the end of the year, which costs around $100 per month. Once the business model switch for the software subscription service is completed, each FSD-activated vehicle sold is expected to contribute continuous cash flow to Tesla.</p><p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20210103204453320v235dzotu4s5893\"/>In the short term, we expect FSD to generate nearly $7 billion in revenue in 2025, accounting for nearly 9% of Tesla's automotive business revenue and contributing 25% of its automotive business gross profit. Based on the previous analysis of the three major variables of car sales, activation rate and unit price, we have made a financial forecast of Tesla FSD's revenue (see Appendix 2 for detailed data). It is estimated that FSD's revenue will be nearly 7 billion USD in 2025, accounting for nearly 9% of Tesla's automobile business revenue and contributing 25% of the gross profit of automobile business.</p><p>In the medium and long term, FSD will switch to the business model of software subscription service with high probability, and it is estimated that the subscription service revenue in 2030 is expected to exceed 16 billion USD/year. Under the software subscription service mode, the early consumption threshold of FSD is further lowered, which is conducive to improving consumers' purchase rate, and it is also in line with the business model of continuous software charging advocated by Musk. In the future, FSD will switch to the business model of software subscription service with high probability. Based on the software subscription service model, we predict that Tesla will have more than 18 million existing owner users in 2030, of which nearly 80% will become subscription paying users of FSD, and the subscription service fee of FSD will reach 16 billion USD/year.</p><p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20210103204454572v235ewchfvj37nu\"/>Different from the traditional analysis, through the quantitative analysis of Tesla's software business, we can clearly see the value of software business represented by autonomous driving to OEMs. We believe that Tesla is only the beginning of the wave of intelligence and networking in the automobile industry. Driven by 5G + AI, the investment opportunities of the big wave of automobile electronics industry change may be more amazing than those of Apple's industrial chain 10 years ago!</p><p><strong>Disclaimer</strong></p><p>This report is for the use of clients of Essence Securities Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as the \"Company\") only. The Company will not treat any institution or individual as an ex-officio customer of the Company because of the receipt of this report.</p><p>This report is based on publicly available information or information, but the Company does not guarantee the completeness and accuracy of such information and information. The information, information, recommendations and speculations contained in this report reflect only the judgment of the Company as at the date of this report, and the prices, values and income generated from the investments of the securities or investments in this report may fluctuate. At different times, the Company may write and issue reports that are inconsistent with the information, recommendations and speculations contained in this report. The Company does not guarantee that the information and information contained in this report will be kept up-to-date, and the Company will supplement, update and revise the relevant information and information at any time, but does not guarantee that it will be published in a timely manner. At the same time, the Company has the right to amend the information contained in this report without giving notice, and investors should pay attention to the corresponding updates or modifications. Any summary or excerpt in relation to this report does not represent a formal and complete view of this report, and all shall be subject to the full version of this report issued by the Company to the client, who may consult the investment adviser of the Company for further consultation if necessary.</p><p>Where permitted by law, the Company and its affiliates may hold securities or options issued by the companies mentioned in the report and conduct securities or options transactions, or may provide or seek to provide investment banking, financial advisory or financial products and other related services to these companies to draw the full attention of customers. Customers should not regard this report as the sole reference factor in making their investment decisions, nor should they consider this report as a substitute for their own investment judgments and decisions. Under no circumstances does the information or opinions expressed in this report constitute investment advice to anyone, whether expressed or implied, and this report cannot be used as a moral, liable and legal basis or evidence. In no event shall the Company be liable to any person for any loss arising from the use of any of the contents of this report.</p><p>The copyright of this report is solely owned by the Company, and no institution or individual may reproduce, reproduce, publish, forward or quote any part of this report in any form without prior written permission. If quoted or published with the consent of the Company, it shall be used within the permitted scope, and the source shall be indicated as \"Research Center of Essence Securities Co., Ltd.\", and no quotation, deletion or modification of this report which is contrary to the original intention shall be made.</p><p>Essence Securities Co., Ltd. has the sole right to modify and finally interpret the terms of this statement.</p><p></article></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN2021010320445579aebd59&s=b\">计算机司令部</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/775d1226e1a74151383a7d012e179b82","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN2021010320445579aebd59&s=b","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/9a95c1376e76363c1401fee7d3717173","article_id":"2100365559","content_text":"事件回顾2021年1月1日，特斯拉正式宣布，中国制造Model Y以及全新Model 3正式发售。特斯拉中国官网显示，Model Y长续航版起售价为33.99万元，此前为48.8万元，下调了14.81万元。Model Y Performance高性能版起售价为36.99万元，此前为53.5万元，下调了16.51万元。此外，特斯拉发售改款国产Model 3，其中，升级版Model 3（标准续航版）较老款新增电动尾门、热泵空调、双层隔音玻璃等配置，售价仍保持24.99万元；原售价为30.99万元的长续航版Model 3被下架，高性能版Model 3售价从41.90万元下降至33.99万元。10多万元的降幅让Model Y直接杀到了国产新势力部分主力车型的价格区间，这也给国内新能源车企带来更大竞争压力。有报道称，有车主甚至连夜退订此前认购的国产新势力车型，并将目光投向特斯拉。资料来源：特斯拉官网，安信证券研究中心降价背后的可能原因Reason持续创新后的更低成本？特斯拉汲取了Model 3在车架设计过度冗余的问题，简化了Model Y的车身结构，提升了车体的一体化程度，加快生产速度，并降低了生产成本。Model Y在白车身的低重心、坚固结构和碰撞保护方采用了大量铸造工艺，相比Model 3，白车身零件大幅减少。尽管标准续航版Model Y因续航未达马斯克标准而尚未推出，磷酸铁锂电池的使用辅以优化软件与效能提升续航里程的经验，或将帮助标准续航版Model Y突破230英里的续航里程限制，实现上市销售，拉低Model Y售价。此外，目前国产版Model Y 使用的是LG的三元锂电池，成本相对较高，后期搭载宁德时代磷酸铁锂电池的国产版Model Y成本有望进一步走低。Reason持续降价后的良性闭环？有数据表明，2019年下半年，标准续航版Model 3已调整过5次价格，调整后的到手价格分别为35.58万/29.91万/30.36万/27.15万/24.99万， Model 3一跃成为国内最具性价比的高端中型轿车之一；此外，2020年5月推出的长续航版Model 3也已经调整过1次价格。可以看到，国产Model 3的每一次降价均会带来销量的提升，2020年11月Model 3的销量已经突破2万辆，2020年1-11月国产Model 3累计销量达11.54万辆。持续降价带动销量上涨，快速提升了特斯拉在华保有量，加之特斯拉持续不断的产品创新，着力优化的实用性吸引更多的消费者，形成了一个良性循环。我们认为特斯拉降价的真正底气软件！软件！软件！Reason商业模式加速向“苹果”靠拢相比于传统车企，特斯拉更像是TO C的科技公司。我们在前期报告中指出特斯拉类“苹果”商业模式成立的基石是——打造出了划时代的智能汽车，国内新势力造车的代表人理想汽车创始人李想曾评价：“特斯拉是目前世界上唯一的智能汽车”。特斯拉基于软件+硬件（高集成的电子电气架构），以整车OTA为桥梁，可以实现汽车的持续升级和常用常新。一句话概括特斯拉汽车的智能化水平，就是真正把汽车从“功能机”升级为“智能机”。观察产业，可以看到传统车企也在奋起直追，复制特斯拉的整车OTA能力，但我们认为更多的是形似而神不似。传统车企做整车OTA的最大问题是，他们本质上还是To B 的公司，并不直接面对用户，“用户”是渠道经销商网络，因而也听不到大量的来自用户端的声音。更勿论随之而来的打通前端来自用户的声音和后端工程部门的研发，进而基于整车 OTA 完成车辆的持续迭代与升级了。相对于传统车企的To B属性，特斯拉从企业文化、组织结构、技术水平等方面来看，更像是TO C的科技公司，也更能实现将汽车从“功能机”升级为“智能机”。Reason软件业务贡献未来毛利特斯拉真的越来越像苹果了，其软件业务（FSD）有望在2025年将贡献汽车业务毛利的1/4。在2020年2月我们发布的报告《划时代新物种：特斯拉越来越像苹果了》中，我们反复强调：特斯拉就是汽车界的“苹果”，软件会是其商业模式核心组成部分。通过前文的量化分析，我们预测特斯拉的软件业务（FSD）有望在2025年将贡献汽车业务毛利的1/4，从财务数据上也将更反应特斯拉的软件和科技属性。以软件定义特斯拉的想法从何而来隐藏在财报中的秘密软件现金收入累积超10亿美元自动驾驶Autopilot FSD是特斯拉最核心的应用软件。特斯拉目前并未在其财报中单独披露软件业务的收入，分析公司的业务明细，我们可以把其软件收入组成分为三块，具体而言：01Autopilot FSD（Full Self-Driving）完全自动驾驶选装包特斯拉著名的自动驾驶的功能，也可以说是特斯拉汽车的灵魂。消费者付费激活后，可以享受到包括自动泊车、自动辅助导航驾驶、智能召唤等在内的高级自动驾驶功能，而且后续可以通过 OTA 空中软件持续升级自动驾驶能力。2020年7月1号，其价格已经上涨至8000美元/套（国内64000元/套）。02OTA付费升级特斯拉此前对于软件的OTA升级基本上是以免费的形式提供的。2019年以来，特斯拉开始积极尝试OTA付费升级。典型案例就是“Acceleration Boost”加速性能升级包。Model 3车主只要付费3000美元，即可将汽车的百公里加速性能从4.6s提升到4.1s。03高级车联网功能特斯拉从2019年Q4开始，首度开启车联网高级连接服务收费（9.9美元/月），车主支付了服务费后即可使用实时路况、卡拉OK、流媒体等高级车联网功能。其中，OTA付费升级以及高级车联网功能两块业务是特斯拉从2019年开始逐步发力的软件业务。现阶段，FSD是特斯拉最核心的应用软件，其软件收入也主要由FSD选装包贡献。揭示特斯拉FSD收入的关键变量递延收入由于特斯拉并不在财报中披露FSD的收入体量，投资者缺乏公开透明的途径进行跟踪其业务发展情况。在深入分析特斯拉财报之后，我们找到了可以揭示特斯拉FSD收入的核心变量——递延收入。特斯拉的CFO Zachary Kirkhorn在2020年Q1业绩说明会议上，公开了软件“递延收入”的概念，并对FSD收入的财务确认规则进行了详细介绍：1）当消费者选择激活FSD套件后，特斯拉会获得6000美元（现已上涨至8000美元）的现金，公司会将其中一半确认为当期收入，另一半则记为递延收入。2）后续收入的确认规则为，当特斯拉在FSD中新增加一项功能，就可将递延收入余额部分转换为当期收入。举例而言，2019年Q3，公司在FSD中添加了新功能Smart Summon（智能召唤），因此在当季度确认了3000万美元的递延收入。根据Zachary Kirkhorn披露，截止2020年Q1，特斯拉的FSD递延收入已经超过6亿美元。基于核心变量——递延收入，我们可以通过勾稽关系反算出特斯拉FSD激活率超25%，FSD 累计现金收入超10亿美元。根据下图所示的勾稽关系，通过关键变量——递延收入，我们可以反算出特斯拉FSD激活率以及累积FSD的现金收入。我们预计特斯拉FSD的整体激活率超25%，FSD 累计现金收入达到12.6亿美元，其中FSD在2019年的现金达到5.6亿美元。多方数据佐证，上述预计的特斯拉FSD激活率及现金收入与现实情况基本相符。1）根据美国科技媒体Electrek报道，截至2019年，特斯拉通过出售FSD套件获得的收入已经超过了10亿美元。2）德意志银行(Deutsche Bank)在2020年5月11日出具的特斯拉报告《Positive takeaways from Tesla investor meetings》中预测——特斯拉FSD整体的激活率大致在25%-30%，并且主要集中在美国市场。3）摩根士丹利（Morgan Stanley）在2019年10月2日出具的特斯拉报告《Tesla: In 5 Key Debates》中预估——特斯拉FSD整体的激活率大致在30%左右。未来预测特斯拉软件业务的商业潜力的分析框架——短期主要看汽车销量、激活率、单价三大变量的持续提升，中长期看商业模式变化。站在马斯克的视角，卖车只是开始，软件服务收费才是其未来最核心的商业模式。对于特斯拉软件业务的商业潜力的评估（附注：本文着重讨论FSD业务，暂不分析OTA付费升级、高级车联网等其他软件业务），我们认为可以从短期和中长期两个维度考虑：1）短期：在不改变前装一次性收费的商业模式的前提下，特斯拉软件业务主要由汽车销量、激活率、单价三大变量驱动2）中长期：马斯克正在积极推动FSD从一次性前装收费的模式转变成订阅服务持续收费的模式。根据科技媒体electrek报道，特斯拉有望在年底前推出FSD订阅服务，价格约为每月100美元。一旦完成软件订阅服务的商业模式转换，每辆激活FSD的销售车辆都有望为特斯拉贡献持续的现金流。短期来看，我们预计2025年FSD的收入将近70亿美元，占特斯拉汽车业务营收的接近9%，贡献25%的汽车业务毛利。综合前文对于汽车销量、激活率、单价三大变量的分析，我们对特斯拉FSD的收入进行了财务预测（详细数据参见附表2），预计2025年FSD的收入将近70亿美元，占特斯拉汽车业务营收的接近9%，贡献25%的汽车业务毛利。中长期来看，FSD将大概率切换成软件订阅服务的商业模式，预计2030年的订阅服务收入有望超过160亿美元/年。软件订阅服务的模式下，FSD前期消费门槛进一步降低，有利于提升消费者的购买率，并且也符合马斯克所倡导的软件持续收费的商业模式，未来FSD将大概率切换成软件订阅服务的商业模式。基于软件订阅服务模式下，我们预测2030年特斯拉将有超过1800万存量车主用户，其中近80%将成为FSD的订阅付费用户，FSD的订阅服务费将达到160亿美元/年。不同于传统的分析，我们通过对特斯拉软件业务的量化分析，可以清晰看到以自动驾驶为代表的软件业务对于整车厂的价值。我们认为，特斯拉只是汽车产业智能化、网联化浪潮的开端，在5G+AI驱动下，汽车电子产业变革大浪潮的投资机会或比10年前苹果产业链更为惊人！免责声明本报告仅供安信证券股份有限公司（以下简称“本公司”）的客户使用。本公司不会因为任何机构或个人接收到本报告而视其为本公司的当然客户。本报告基于已公开的资料或信息撰写，但本公司不保证该等信息及资料的完整性、准确性。本报告所载的信息、资料、建议及推测仅反映本公司于本报告发布当日的判断，本报告中的证券或投资标的价格、价值及投资带来的收入可能会波动。在不同时期，本公司可能撰写并发布与本报告所载资料、建议及推测不一致的报告。本公司不保证本报告所含信息及资料保持在最新状态，本公司将随时补充、更新和修订有关信息及资料，但不保证及时公开发布。同时，本公司有权对本报告所含信息在不发出通知的情形下做出修改，投资者应当自行关注相应的更新或修改。任何有关本报告的摘要或节选都不代表本报告正式完整的观点，一切须以本公司向客户发布的本报告完整版本为准，如有需要，客户可以向本公司投资顾问进一步咨询。在法律许可的情况下，本公司及所属关联机构可能会持有报告中提到的公司所发行的证券或期权并进行证券或期权交易，也可能为这些公司提供或者争取提供投资银行、财务顾问或者金融产品等相关服务，提请客户充分注意。客户不应将本报告为作出其投资决策的惟一参考因素，亦不应认为本报告可以取代客户自身的投资判断与决策。在任何情况下，本报告中的信息或所表述的意见均不构成对任何人的投资建议，无论是否已经明示或暗示，本报告不能作为道义的、责任的和法律的依据或者凭证。在任何情况下，本公司亦不对任何人因使用本报告中的任何内容所引致的任何损失负任何责任。本报告版权仅为本公司所有，未经事先书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制、发表、转发或引用本报告的任何部分。如征得本公司同意进行引用、刊发的，需在允许的范围内使用，并注明出处为“安信证券股份有限公司研究中心”，且不得对本报告进行任何有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。安信证券股份有限公司对本声明条款具有惟一修改权和最终解释权。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2019,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":333749579,"gmtCreate":1609378153591,"gmtModify":1704978690980,"author":{"id":"3557305548001793","authorId":"3557305548001793","name":"Ikhas","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a0fd7b69b3c00ecf9cc780ede0cf5943","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3557305548001793","idStr":"3557305548001793"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"bb","listText":"bb","text":"bb","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/333749579","repostId":"339422605","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":339422605,"gmtCreate":1609042156407,"gmtModify":1704977217721,"author":{"id":"3502662293881250","authorId":"3502662293881250","name":"安心睡大觉","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5644d6d3b2f1f98162851b875f4d8ac5","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3502662293881250","idStr":"3502662293881250"},"themes":[],"title":"比特幣的價值與缺陷","htmlText":"但斌的茅臺，南非、張磊的騰訊，孫正義的阿里，李笑來的比特幣。這些都是投資的封頂之作，收益率都高的驚人。比特幣上漲倍數是四個最高的，我熟悉茅臺、騰訊的價值，暫時沒搞清楚阿里的核心價值，但對比特幣的價值一無所知。知道比特幣是2017年初的時候，印象特別深的是郎鹹平那一期《五問比特幣》，認爲比特幣毫無價值。我當時研究後的核心疑問有兩點：1、比特幣作爲貨幣，背後沒有主權信用背書，價值在哪？2、比特幣背後是一種永久性不公平，前面的人獲得了大量財富，越後面來的越是傻瓜，要讓大多數人接受，無外乎將手中的別墅換成了最初投資者手中的一美元鋼鏰。2018年底我終於遇到了在幣圈投資的同事，那一年比特幣價格相較於以前下降了不少，我將這兩個問題拋給他，沒有得到很好地回答。只是隱約感覺有價值。直到最近，比特幣價格暴漲到2.6萬美元一個，大連一家三口因爲比特幣自殺，研究的老虎證券涉及到未來業務中資金的出入金問題。我纔將比特幣的價值思考明白了。比特幣作爲一個非生產性資產，本身不產生價值。但不能說它就沒價值，它的價值主要體現在兩個方面：1、抗通脹，特別是貨幣通脹。這就抑制了貨幣政策的獨立性，例如美國只要開動印鈔機，無形中掠奪人們財富，那麼就會有更多的人去選擇實物資產。比特幣總量一定，未來肯定不會亂髮，天然抗通脹，成爲了很好替代品。這就是爲何08年之後誕生，2020年疫情之後美國無限量化之後比特幣大漲的原因。2.流動價值，特別是跨境匯款。不得不說比特幣誕生到較大範圍的運用流淌着骯髒的血液，就好比最初的鐵路下埋葬了很多奴工，淘金之路死去的淘金客。比特幣是很好的洗錢工具，如果要逃避監管，比特幣去中心化，可以讓傳統洗錢流失率12%至35%降低到5%以下，行情好的時候甚至可以洗的更多。如今這種流通價值，平常人學習後都能將資金在境內外來去自如，不受監管約束。而這種提高資金自由流動的效率，就是價值。巴菲特也知道，但他在美","listText":"但斌的茅臺，南非、張磊的騰訊，孫正義的阿里，李笑來的比特幣。這些都是投資的封頂之作，收益率都高的驚人。比特幣上漲倍數是四個最高的，我熟悉茅臺、騰訊的價值，暫時沒搞清楚阿里的核心價值，但對比特幣的價值一無所知。知道比特幣是2017年初的時候，印象特別深的是郎鹹平那一期《五問比特幣》，認爲比特幣毫無價值。我當時研究後的核心疑問有兩點：1、比特幣作爲貨幣，背後沒有主權信用背書，價值在哪？2、比特幣背後是一種永久性不公平，前面的人獲得了大量財富，越後面來的越是傻瓜，要讓大多數人接受，無外乎將手中的別墅換成了最初投資者手中的一美元鋼鏰。2018年底我終於遇到了在幣圈投資的同事，那一年比特幣價格相較於以前下降了不少，我將這兩個問題拋給他，沒有得到很好地回答。只是隱約感覺有價值。直到最近，比特幣價格暴漲到2.6萬美元一個，大連一家三口因爲比特幣自殺，研究的老虎證券涉及到未來業務中資金的出入金問題。我纔將比特幣的價值思考明白了。比特幣作爲一個非生產性資產，本身不產生價值。但不能說它就沒價值，它的價值主要體現在兩個方面：1、抗通脹，特別是貨幣通脹。這就抑制了貨幣政策的獨立性，例如美國只要開動印鈔機，無形中掠奪人們財富，那麼就會有更多的人去選擇實物資產。比特幣總量一定，未來肯定不會亂髮，天然抗通脹，成爲了很好替代品。這就是爲何08年之後誕生，2020年疫情之後美國無限量化之後比特幣大漲的原因。2.流動價值，特別是跨境匯款。不得不說比特幣誕生到較大範圍的運用流淌着骯髒的血液，就好比最初的鐵路下埋葬了很多奴工，淘金之路死去的淘金客。比特幣是很好的洗錢工具，如果要逃避監管，比特幣去中心化，可以讓傳統洗錢流失率12%至35%降低到5%以下，行情好的時候甚至可以洗的更多。如今這種流通價值，平常人學習後都能將資金在境內外來去自如，不受監管約束。而這種提高資金自由流動的效率，就是價值。巴菲特也知道，但他在美","text":"但斌的茅臺，南非、張磊的騰訊，孫正義的阿里，李笑來的比特幣。這些都是投資的封頂之作，收益率都高的驚人。比特幣上漲倍數是四個最高的，我熟悉茅臺、騰訊的價值，暫時沒搞清楚阿里的核心價值，但對比特幣的價值一無所知。知道比特幣是2017年初的時候，印象特別深的是郎鹹平那一期《五問比特幣》，認爲比特幣毫無價值。我當時研究後的核心疑問有兩點：1、比特幣作爲貨幣，背後沒有主權信用背書，價值在哪？2、比特幣背後是一種永久性不公平，前面的人獲得了大量財富，越後面來的越是傻瓜，要讓大多數人接受，無外乎將手中的別墅換成了最初投資者手中的一美元鋼鏰。2018年底我終於遇到了在幣圈投資的同事，那一年比特幣價格相較於以前下降了不少，我將這兩個問題拋給他，沒有得到很好地回答。只是隱約感覺有價值。直到最近，比特幣價格暴漲到2.6萬美元一個，大連一家三口因爲比特幣自殺，研究的老虎證券涉及到未來業務中資金的出入金問題。我纔將比特幣的價值思考明白了。比特幣作爲一個非生產性資產，本身不產生價值。但不能說它就沒價值，它的價值主要體現在兩個方面：1、抗通脹，特別是貨幣通脹。這就抑制了貨幣政策的獨立性，例如美國只要開動印鈔機，無形中掠奪人們財富，那麼就會有更多的人去選擇實物資產。比特幣總量一定，未來肯定不會亂髮，天然抗通脹，成爲了很好替代品。這就是爲何08年之後誕生，2020年疫情之後美國無限量化之後比特幣大漲的原因。2.流動價值，特別是跨境匯款。不得不說比特幣誕生到較大範圍的運用流淌着骯髒的血液，就好比最初的鐵路下埋葬了很多奴工，淘金之路死去的淘金客。比特幣是很好的洗錢工具，如果要逃避監管，比特幣去中心化，可以讓傳統洗錢流失率12%至35%降低到5%以下，行情好的時候甚至可以洗的更多。如今這種流通價值，平常人學習後都能將資金在境內外來去自如，不受監管約束。而這種提高資金自由流動的效率，就是價值。巴菲特也知道，但他在美","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c7d2c0921a8bdffd18135c7bf47534fc","width":"624","height":"358"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/339422605","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":6,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":984,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3528966054893519","authorId":"3528966054893519","name":"小虎说英股","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b444754ad4cb8cbfaf0dcb4fb2537c79","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"authorIdStr":"3528966054893519","idStr":"3528966054893519"},"content":"Happy New Year!","text":"Happy New Year!","html":"Happy New Year!"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":373555685,"gmtCreate":1618874812547,"gmtModify":1704716090703,"author":{"id":"3557305548001793","authorId":"3557305548001793","name":"Ikhas","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a0fd7b69b3c00ecf9cc780ede0cf5943","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3557305548001793","idStr":"3557305548001793"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"elasticity","listText":"elasticity","text":"elasticity","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/373555685","repostId":"1147524572","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1147524572","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1618838733,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1147524572?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-04-19 21:25","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"The alarm goes off! The bull market in U.S. stocks is already cold at a high position?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1147524572","media":"腾讯美股  ","summary":"总而言之，投资者最好还是尊重一下历史，毕竟标普500指数市盈率攀升到30，且盈利见顶的情况，历史上只在二十年前和现在出现过。诚然，美股牛市可能还会继续一段时间，但是投资者不保持谨慎，不保持警惕，显然是","content":"<p>All in all, investors should respect history. After all, the P/E of the S&P 500 index climbed to 30 and earnings peaked only twenty years ago and now. It is true that the bull market in U.S. stocks may continue for some time, but it is obviously not advisable for investors to remain cautious and vigilant.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6f413590001cd843da7ab41f47554741\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"718\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Last Friday's trading day, inspired by full confidence in the prospect of economic recovery, the S&P 500 index once again set a new record for the historical closing point. This means that the US stock market has reached a delicate node-the P/E is extremely high, and the earnings per share has reached a historic high. This situation has happened twice in history, in September 2000 and now. At the closing point of 4185.47, the index has come above 30 relative to \"normal\" earnings (see later).</p><p>At first glance, the P/E of 30 doesn't seem too terrible. After all, in June last year, the most basic version of P/E, that is, P/E based on the GAAP net profit record of the past four quarters, once reached 31. At that time, the market was about 26% lower than it is now. By the end of the fourth quarter of last year, P/E once reached nearly 40. However, this number didn't bother the bulls at the time, and the fact is that the S&P 500 went into rave-party mode from then on.</p><p>The key is that in the context of the economy being deeply tortured by the epidemic, it has completely lost its meaning to measure whether the stock price is expensive or cheap by using the profits under the distortion. For example, from the fourth quarter of 2019 to the fourth quarter of 2020, one-third of corporate profits were wiped out, so various valuation indicators have soared to extremely high levels.</p><p>Obviously, as the pandemic crisis gradually becomes a thing of the past, corporate profits will rebound sharply from their lows. To judge whether today's stock price is in the range of expensive or low in the price spectrum, and then predict the future direction of the stock market accordingly, we must first get a key reference, \"normalized profit\". Specifically, it is the most likely profit for S&P when the recovery is finally implemented. Here, Q4 2019 earnings per share data can be used, which is $139.47 on an annualized basis.</p><p>There are two main reasons for selecting the 2019 data. First of all, profits in 2019 not only set a record in absolute height, but also were at a historically high level relative to the relative height of sales and other projects. This means that the difficulty of normalized profits that really appear in the future will be greatly increased if they want to exceed their level. Although Niupai may insist that a P/E of 30 is not a problem, because 2021 profits will even dwarf 2019.</p><p>Secondly, even under the strong economy in 2019, the earnings of each quarter have basically not changed much, which means that corporate profits have reached a very high level relative to fundamentals, so there is not much room for further growth in profits. Even now, Wall Street analysts, who have always been known for their super-optimism, are simply expecting second-quarter 2021 earnings per share to reach the same annualized $139 as fourth-quarter 2019. In short, a return to that peak is the most likely scenario in 2021 in terms of corporate profits.</p><p>Historically, the unemployment rate of the S&P 500 index exceeded 30, all of which occurred in the cycle of sharp decline or even collapse of profits, with the only exception being the present. For example, in the fourth quarter of 1999, when the peak of the dot-com bubble was approaching, the index P/E once reached 30.5, and at that time, earnings per share were at a historically high level, which was equivalent to releasing an alarm. Investors are, in fact, offering more than $30 for every dollar of earnings, which are at the end of their crossbow and hard to go further.</p><p>Although earnings per share held on for a while, hitting a new high of $53.70 in the third quarter of 2000, earnings per share never returned to that level for four full years. The record profits came as the S&P 500 also reached a near-record high of 1,518 on September 1, 2000. At that time, the index had risen 120% in the previous four years. In short, the best comparison with today is perhaps the period of 2000. After all, the S&P 500's earnings per share and points peaked at the same time, only twice.</p><p>Twenty years ago, on September 1, 2000, the traditional P/E of the S&P 500 was 26.75. To put that in perspective, today's P/E is 30, which is 12% higher than it was back in the day. However, P/E alone obviously can't reflect the panoramic view of the market. For example, if you take the fundamentals for reference, earnings per share in 2000 are actually higher than in 2021. From this point of view, P/E was substantially higher than it seems, because profits were destined to fall, while P/E is substantially lower than it seems, because profits will rise sharply.</p><p>Although the various factors that need to be taken into account are complex, positive and negative, on the whole, the corporate profit level in the fourth quarter of 2019 looks similar to that at the peak of the technology bubble, both at the high point in their respective relative cycles, and even the former is a little higher. For example, for the whole of 2019, the S&P 500 earnings totaled 5.4% of national income, one percentage point higher than the 4.4% in the four quarters ending September 2000. In terms of the ratio of operating profit to sales, the so-called operating profit margin, the figure reached 11.1% in 2019, which is 4 percentage points higher than in the cycle of two decades ago. However, the index did have a better return on equity two decades ago than it did in 2019, with 17.5% ahead of 15.5%.</p><p>Although not all, obviously, most indicators show that corporate profits in 2019 are relatively higher than those in 2000. Now, let's be conservative and assume that the two are at the same level. All in all, these are the only two periods in the history of U.S. stocks in which P/E reached a very high of around 30, and earnings reached a historic high. From this comparison, what clues can we get about the present and future of the S&P 500 index?</p><p>If investors have entered the market before, it is certainly good news for them that P/E has climbed all the way to 30 under the stock market boom. However, if investors are only ready to enter the market now, or are prepared to keep holding large U.S. stock indexes without cashing in on their gains, that is not good news for them. Regarding this, it couldn't be clearer to look at what happened after September 1, 2000. The S&P 500 entered a long downward path until it fell to 801 points on March 11, 2003, with a loss of 47% in the process. It is seven years later, in September 2007, that the index has returned to its level in September 2000.</p><p>As we all know, after that, due to the global financial crisis, there was another new downward channel waiting for the index. When it climbed to more than 1,500 points again, it was already March 2013. In other words, over a twelve-year cycle, the rate of return that the index can provide investors is a huge zero if Dividend returns are not counted.</p><p>Of course, it is impossible for anyone to accurately predict whether the U.S. stock market will suffer a tragedy similar to that after the burst of the Internet bubble. At present, Niupai expects that US stocks will enter a full-speed sailing mode driven by two favorable SF factors, namely, the fast-growing corporate profits will greatly exceed those of 2019, and the ultra-low interest rate will continue to be maintained in the next few years, providing continuous support.</p><p>Of course, neither of these possibilities could be completely ruled out, but objectively speaking, neither of them had a high probability. As for how much to benefit from both, the probability will be further reduced. First, let's look at corporate profits. As mentioned earlier, the peak profit in 2019 was already equivalent to 5.4% of national income, climbing to a historic high. If earnings are to grow faster than gross domestic product, as Wall Street expects, it means that the relative proportion of profits needs to be further improved, which is obviously hard to count on.</p><p>What's more, at the end of last week, the total market value of the S&P 500 had reached an eye-popping 161% of national income, nearly a quarter higher than 130% in 2000, and nearly double the average figure in the past two decades, which means that it will be more difficult to increase the profit proportion.</p><p>Now that wages have finally started to rise after years of stagnation, and the corporate tax rate is likely to increase significantly under the Biden administration, in this case, to keep profits above 160% of national income, it already needs to expand profits further, and it is too difficult to expect profits to expand and expand again.</p><p>As for interest rates, what Niupai is counting on is that in the next few years, the 10-year Treasury Bond yield will continue to rise at a slower rate than the growth rate of GDP. This is the premise of all expectations, but unfortunately, such things rarely happen in history. The truth is that the real interest rate adjusted for inflation normally rises at a pace that is in sync with economic growth \", and the cycles in which the real interest rate becomes negative are often extremely short.</p><p>The most reasonable interpretation of today's phenomenon that the yield rate is not even as good as the inflation rate can only be that it is only a historical exception, and it is a special phenomenon that occurs after the economy has suffered a severe epidemic hit once in many years.</p><p>All in all, it's best to respect history. After all, the P/E of the S&P 500 index climbed to 30, and profits peaked, which only happened twenty years ago and now. It is true that the bull market in U.S. stocks may continue for some time, but it is obviously not advisable for investors to remain cautious and vigilant.</p>","source":"txmg","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The alarm goes off! The bull market in U.S. stocks is already cold at a high position?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe alarm goes off! The bull market in U.S. stocks is already cold at a high position?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">腾讯美股  </strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-04-19 21:25</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>All in all, investors should respect history. After all, the P/E of the S&P 500 index climbed to 30 and earnings peaked only twenty years ago and now. It is true that the bull market in U.S. stocks may continue for some time, but it is obviously not advisable for investors to remain cautious and vigilant.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6f413590001cd843da7ab41f47554741\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"718\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Last Friday's trading day, inspired by full confidence in the prospect of economic recovery, the S&P 500 index once again set a new record for the historical closing point. This means that the US stock market has reached a delicate node-the P/E is extremely high, and the earnings per share has reached a historic high. This situation has happened twice in history, in September 2000 and now. At the closing point of 4185.47, the index has come above 30 relative to \"normal\" earnings (see later).</p><p>At first glance, the P/E of 30 doesn't seem too terrible. After all, in June last year, the most basic version of P/E, that is, P/E based on the GAAP net profit record of the past four quarters, once reached 31. At that time, the market was about 26% lower than it is now. By the end of the fourth quarter of last year, P/E once reached nearly 40. However, this number didn't bother the bulls at the time, and the fact is that the S&P 500 went into rave-party mode from then on.</p><p>The key is that in the context of the economy being deeply tortured by the epidemic, it has completely lost its meaning to measure whether the stock price is expensive or cheap by using the profits under the distortion. For example, from the fourth quarter of 2019 to the fourth quarter of 2020, one-third of corporate profits were wiped out, so various valuation indicators have soared to extremely high levels.</p><p>Obviously, as the pandemic crisis gradually becomes a thing of the past, corporate profits will rebound sharply from their lows. To judge whether today's stock price is in the range of expensive or low in the price spectrum, and then predict the future direction of the stock market accordingly, we must first get a key reference, \"normalized profit\". Specifically, it is the most likely profit for S&P when the recovery is finally implemented. Here, Q4 2019 earnings per share data can be used, which is $139.47 on an annualized basis.</p><p>There are two main reasons for selecting the 2019 data. First of all, profits in 2019 not only set a record in absolute height, but also were at a historically high level relative to the relative height of sales and other projects. This means that the difficulty of normalized profits that really appear in the future will be greatly increased if they want to exceed their level. Although Niupai may insist that a P/E of 30 is not a problem, because 2021 profits will even dwarf 2019.</p><p>Secondly, even under the strong economy in 2019, the earnings of each quarter have basically not changed much, which means that corporate profits have reached a very high level relative to fundamentals, so there is not much room for further growth in profits. Even now, Wall Street analysts, who have always been known for their super-optimism, are simply expecting second-quarter 2021 earnings per share to reach the same annualized $139 as fourth-quarter 2019. In short, a return to that peak is the most likely scenario in 2021 in terms of corporate profits.</p><p>Historically, the unemployment rate of the S&P 500 index exceeded 30, all of which occurred in the cycle of sharp decline or even collapse of profits, with the only exception being the present. For example, in the fourth quarter of 1999, when the peak of the dot-com bubble was approaching, the index P/E once reached 30.5, and at that time, earnings per share were at a historically high level, which was equivalent to releasing an alarm. Investors are, in fact, offering more than $30 for every dollar of earnings, which are at the end of their crossbow and hard to go further.</p><p>Although earnings per share held on for a while, hitting a new high of $53.70 in the third quarter of 2000, earnings per share never returned to that level for four full years. The record profits came as the S&P 500 also reached a near-record high of 1,518 on September 1, 2000. At that time, the index had risen 120% in the previous four years. In short, the best comparison with today is perhaps the period of 2000. After all, the S&P 500's earnings per share and points peaked at the same time, only twice.</p><p>Twenty years ago, on September 1, 2000, the traditional P/E of the S&P 500 was 26.75. To put that in perspective, today's P/E is 30, which is 12% higher than it was back in the day. However, P/E alone obviously can't reflect the panoramic view of the market. For example, if you take the fundamentals for reference, earnings per share in 2000 are actually higher than in 2021. From this point of view, P/E was substantially higher than it seems, because profits were destined to fall, while P/E is substantially lower than it seems, because profits will rise sharply.</p><p>Although the various factors that need to be taken into account are complex, positive and negative, on the whole, the corporate profit level in the fourth quarter of 2019 looks similar to that at the peak of the technology bubble, both at the high point in their respective relative cycles, and even the former is a little higher. For example, for the whole of 2019, the S&P 500 earnings totaled 5.4% of national income, one percentage point higher than the 4.4% in the four quarters ending September 2000. In terms of the ratio of operating profit to sales, the so-called operating profit margin, the figure reached 11.1% in 2019, which is 4 percentage points higher than in the cycle of two decades ago. However, the index did have a better return on equity two decades ago than it did in 2019, with 17.5% ahead of 15.5%.</p><p>Although not all, obviously, most indicators show that corporate profits in 2019 are relatively higher than those in 2000. Now, let's be conservative and assume that the two are at the same level. All in all, these are the only two periods in the history of U.S. stocks in which P/E reached a very high of around 30, and earnings reached a historic high. From this comparison, what clues can we get about the present and future of the S&P 500 index?</p><p>If investors have entered the market before, it is certainly good news for them that P/E has climbed all the way to 30 under the stock market boom. However, if investors are only ready to enter the market now, or are prepared to keep holding large U.S. stock indexes without cashing in on their gains, that is not good news for them. Regarding this, it couldn't be clearer to look at what happened after September 1, 2000. The S&P 500 entered a long downward path until it fell to 801 points on March 11, 2003, with a loss of 47% in the process. It is seven years later, in September 2007, that the index has returned to its level in September 2000.</p><p>As we all know, after that, due to the global financial crisis, there was another new downward channel waiting for the index. When it climbed to more than 1,500 points again, it was already March 2013. In other words, over a twelve-year cycle, the rate of return that the index can provide investors is a huge zero if Dividend returns are not counted.</p><p>Of course, it is impossible for anyone to accurately predict whether the U.S. stock market will suffer a tragedy similar to that after the burst of the Internet bubble. At present, Niupai expects that US stocks will enter a full-speed sailing mode driven by two favorable SF factors, namely, the fast-growing corporate profits will greatly exceed those of 2019, and the ultra-low interest rate will continue to be maintained in the next few years, providing continuous support.</p><p>Of course, neither of these possibilities could be completely ruled out, but objectively speaking, neither of them had a high probability. As for how much to benefit from both, the probability will be further reduced. First, let's look at corporate profits. As mentioned earlier, the peak profit in 2019 was already equivalent to 5.4% of national income, climbing to a historic high. If earnings are to grow faster than gross domestic product, as Wall Street expects, it means that the relative proportion of profits needs to be further improved, which is obviously hard to count on.</p><p>What's more, at the end of last week, the total market value of the S&P 500 had reached an eye-popping 161% of national income, nearly a quarter higher than 130% in 2000, and nearly double the average figure in the past two decades, which means that it will be more difficult to increase the profit proportion.</p><p>Now that wages have finally started to rise after years of stagnation, and the corporate tax rate is likely to increase significantly under the Biden administration, in this case, to keep profits above 160% of national income, it already needs to expand profits further, and it is too difficult to expect profits to expand and expand again.</p><p>As for interest rates, what Niupai is counting on is that in the next few years, the 10-year Treasury Bond yield will continue to rise at a slower rate than the growth rate of GDP. This is the premise of all expectations, but unfortunately, such things rarely happen in history. The truth is that the real interest rate adjusted for inflation normally rises at a pace that is in sync with economic growth \", and the cycles in which the real interest rate becomes negative are often extremely short.</p><p>The most reasonable interpretation of today's phenomenon that the yield rate is not even as good as the inflation rate can only be that it is only a historical exception, and it is a special phenomenon that occurs after the economy has suffered a severe epidemic hit once in many years.</p><p>All in all, it's best to respect history. After all, the P/E of the S&P 500 index climbed to 30, and profits peaked, which only happened twenty years ago and now. It is true that the bull market in U.S. stocks may continue for some time, but it is obviously not advisable for investors to remain cautious and vigilant.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/LXEEhQeYt9fCEoRvmAPN1g\">腾讯美股  </a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6f413590001cd843da7ab41f47554741","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/LXEEhQeYt9fCEoRvmAPN1g","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1147524572","content_text":"总而言之，投资者最好还是尊重一下历史，毕竟标普500指数市盈率攀升到30，且盈利见顶的情况，历史上只在二十年前和现在出现过。诚然，美股牛市可能还会继续一段时间，但是投资者不保持谨慎，不保持警惕，显然是不可取的。上周五的交易日当中，在对经济复苏前景的充分信心鼓舞下，标普500指数再度刷新历史收盘点位纪录。这也就意味着，美股市场已经来到一个微妙的节点——市盈率极端高企，每股盈利达到历史性高点，这样的情况史上一共就出现过两次，分别是2000年9月和现在。以4185.47点的收盘点位计算，指数相对于“正常”盈利（见后文）已经来到了30以上。第一眼看上去，30的市盈率似乎也没有多可怕，毕竟去年6月的时候，最基础版本的市盈率，即基于过去四个季度通用会计准则净盈利记录的市盈率，曾经一度达到31，而那时候，大盘的点位较之现在还要低大约26%。到了去年第四季度结束的时候，市盈率，更是一度曾经达到近40。然而，这一数字当时并没有让牛派受到任何困扰，事实就是，标普500指数从那时开始还进入了狂欢派对模式。关键在于，在经济受到疫情深度折磨的大背景下，用扭曲局面下的盈利去度量股票价格到底是昂贵还是低廉，这种做法已经彻底失掉了意义。比如，从2019年第四季度到2020年第四季度，企业盈利有三分之一灰飞烟灭，于是，各种估值指标都因此窜升到了极高的水平。显而易见，伴随疫情危机逐渐成为过去，企业利润将会从低点大幅反弹。想要判断当今的股价到底在价格光谱上处于昂贵还是低廉的区间，进而据此预测股市未来的走向，首先必须得到一个关键的参照物，“正常化利润”。具体而言就是，当复苏最终落实时，标普企业最可能获得的盈利。在这里，可以使用2019年第四季度的每股盈利数据，年化后为139.47美元。选用2019年的数据，主要有两个原因。首先，2019年的利润不但绝对高度创下了历史纪录，而且相对于销售额和其他项目的相对高度，也处在历史性的高水平。这也就意味着，未来真正出现的正常化利润想要超越其水平，难度将大幅提高。尽管牛派可能会坚持说，30的市盈率不成其为问题，因为2021年的利润甚至会让2019年相形见绌。其次，哪怕是在2019年的强势经济之下，每个季度的盈利也基本上没有多大的变化，这就意味着企业利润相对于基本面已经达到了很高的水平，因此盈利已经没有多少进一步增长的空间了。哪怕现在，素来都以超级乐观闻名的华尔街分析师们，整体而言，也不过是预计2021年第二季度的每股盈利年化将达到与2019年第四季度持平的139美元。简而言之，就企业利润而言，重归那个峰值是2021年最可能发生的一幕。历史角度看来，标普500指数失业率超过30，都是发生在盈利大幅下滑，甚至崩溃的周期当中，唯一一个例外就是当下。比如，1999年第四季度，互联网泡沫峰值将至时，指数市盈率曾经达到30.5，而当时，每股盈利又处在历史性的高水平，这就等于释放出了一个警报。投资者事实上就是在为每1美元的盈利开出超过30美元的价格，而这盈利已经是强弩之末，很难再进一步了。虽然每股盈利后来又坚持了一阵子，至2000年第三季度再创新高，达到了53.70美元，但是之后整整四年时间里，每股盈利都再未能回到那个水平。创纪录的利润出现时，标普500指数也在2000年9月1日达到了接近最高纪录的1518点。当时，指数在之前四年当中累计上涨了120%。总之，最适合拿来和当今对比的，也许正是2000年的那段时间。毕竟，标普500指数每股盈利和点位同时达到峰值，只有这么两次。二十年前的2000年9月1日，标普500指数的传统市盈率为26.75。从这个角度来看，今天的市盈率为30，比当初还要高出12%。不过，单单市盈率显然无法体现市场的全景。比如说，如果将基本面拿来参照，则2000年的每股盈利其实要比2021年还要高。从这个角度说，当时的市盈率实质上要比看上去更高，因为利润注定将要走低，而现在的市盈率实质上则比看上去要更低，因为利润水平将会大幅上扬。虽然需要纳入考虑的各种因素错综复杂，积极与消极互见，但是整体而言，企业利润水平2019年第四季度看上去和科技泡沫巅峰时差不多，都是处于各自相对的周期内的高点，甚至前者还要更高一点。比如，2019年全年，标普500指数盈利合计相当于国民收入的5.4%，比起截至2000年9月的四个季度的4.4%还要高出一个百分点。从营业利润相对于销售额的比例，即所谓营业利润率来看，2019年的数字达到了11.1%，比起二十年前的周期更高出4个百分点。不过，二十年前指数的股本回报率确实要好于2019年，以17.5%领先于15.5%。虽然不是所有，但是显然，大多数指标都显示，2019年的企业利润要相对高于2000年，现在姑且保守一点，就假定两者是在同一水平线上。总而言之，这是美股历史上仅有的两段市盈率达到很高的30上下，同时盈利达到历史性高点的周期。从这比较当中，能够得到关于标普500指数当下和未来的怎样的线索呢？如果投资者是之前就已经入场，那么股市大繁荣之下，市盈率一路攀升到30，对于他们而言当然是好消息。不过，如果投资者是现在才准备入场，或者准备不兑现利得，继续持有美国大型股票指数，那对于他们而言，这可就不是什么好消息了。关于这一点，看看2000年9月1日之后发生了什么，就再清楚不过了。标普500指数进入了漫长的下滑通道，直至2003年3月11日跌至801点，过程当中损失幅度达到47%。指数重新回到2000年9月的水平，已经是七年之后，即2007年9月的事情了。众所周知，在那之后，由于全球金融危机的缘故，等待着指数的是又一条新的下滑通道，等到再度攀升到1500点以上，已经是2013年的3月了。换言之，在一段长达十二年的周期之内，如果不计算股息收益的话，指数能够为投资者提供的回报率就是一个巨大的零蛋。当然，美股未来是否会遭遇类似于当年互联网泡沫破灭之后那种暴跌的惨剧，是谁也不可能准确预测到的。目前，牛派的预期是，两大有利的顺丰因素驱动下，美股将进入全速航行模式，这两者即，快速增长的企业利润将大幅超越2019年，以及超低利率在未来几年还将继续保持，不断提供支持。这两个可能性当然都不能完全排除，但是客观而言，又都不是很大概率的事情。至于要从两者当中得到多大好处，则概率还会进一步降低。首先来看看企业利润。如前所述，2019年的峰值利润已经相当于国民收入的5.4%，攀上历史性的高点了。盈利要像华尔街所预计的那样，增速超过国内生产总值，就意味着利润的相对比例还需要进一步提升，这显然很难指望。更何况，上周结束时，标普500强的总市值相对于国民收入的比例已经达到了令人瞠目结舌的161%，比2000年时 的130%还要高出近四分之一，较之过去二十年的平均数字更是高出近一倍，这就意味着，利润占比想要提升，难度还将进一步增大。现在，工资在停滞多年后终于开始上涨，而企业税率很可能在拜登政府任内大幅度提升，在这种情况下，盈利要保持高过国民收入160%的水平，就已经需要利润进一步扩张了，指望利润扩张再扩张，这任务未免太过艰难。至于利率方面，牛派所指望的是，未来几年当中，十年期国债收益率的上涨速度将持续低于国内生产总值的增长速度，这是一切预期的前提，但遗憾的是，这样的事情在历史上极少发生。事实是，根据通货膨胀调整后的真实利率在正常情况下，其上涨速度是与经济增长同步的\"，而真实利率变成负数的周期，往往都极为短暂。今天收益率甚至不及通货膨胀率的现象，最合理的解读只能是，这只是一个历史的例外，是一种经济遭受多少年都仅此一次的严重疫情打击后，出现的特殊现象。总而言之，大家最好还是尊重一下历史，毕竟标普500指数市盈率攀升到30，且盈利见顶的情况，历史上只在二十年前和现在出现过。诚然，美股牛市可能还会继续一段时间，但是投资者不保持谨慎，不保持警惕，显然是不可取的。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4471,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":343064676,"gmtCreate":1617664536895,"gmtModify":1704701429799,"author":{"id":"3557305548001793","authorId":"3557305548001793","name":"Ikhas","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a0fd7b69b3c00ecf9cc780ede0cf5943","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3557305548001793","idStr":"3557305548001793"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"rise of empire","listText":"rise of empire","text":"rise of empire","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/343064676","repostId":"1148759697","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1148759697","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1617602084,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1148759697?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-04-05 13:54","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"46-year-old Microsoft: From Gates building empire to Nadella revival","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1148759697","media":"新智元","summary":"距离1975年4月4日比尔·盖茨与保罗·艾伦创办微软以来，已经过去了46个年头。微软一路走来，崛起，落幕再到反击，一步步地完成华丽蜕变。\n2021年4月4日，是微软46周岁的生日！\n\n距离1975年比","content":"<p>Founded by Bill Gates and Paul Allen on April 4, 1975<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">Microsoft</a>Since then, 46 years have passed. Microsoft has gone all the way, rising, ending and then fighting back, completing the gorgeous transformation step by step.</p><p>April 4, 2021, is Microsoft's 46th birthday!</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c556eaf14e7888dab1569feac7a8a3ed\" tg-width=\"580\" tg-height=\"340\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>It has been 46 years since Bill Gates and Paul Allen founded Microsoft in 1975.</p><p>Like a 46-year-old middle-aged man, Microsoft finally survived the midlife crisis and returned to the high-profile and dazzling technology throne with a mature and low-key attitude.</p><p>In order to commemorate those years we walked together, Xiaobian rummaged through boxes and found out Microsoft's journey all the way.</p><p><b>The Rise of the Empire</b></p><p>When it comes to Microsoft, we have to start with Bill Gates, a man of the hour.</p><p>Bill Gates, 19, should be the most successful Harvard dropout.</p><p>In 1975, Bill Gates dropped out of Harvard University to sell with his high school alum Paul Allen. BASIC (Beginners' All-purpose Symbolic Instruction Code). BASIC is \"Beginner's General Symbolic Instruction Code\", a programming language designed for beginners.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e3b47fb0cff04e915c75dd116783ea1\" tg-width=\"919\" tg-height=\"611\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>While Gates was still studying at Harvard, they also programmed languages for MITS' Altair.</p><p>Later, Gates and Allen moved to Albuquerque, New Mexico, USA, and founded Microsoft in a local hotel room. In the early days of the company's founding, the main business of modifying BASIC programs continued to grow.</p><p>So, do you know how Microsoft got its name?</p><p>The word Microsoft consists of two parts: \"Microcomputer\" and \"software\".</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd1624aa9d27000141305dda2459fa51\" tg-width=\"480\" tg-height=\"288\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>If you know DOS, this will fully reveal your age!</p><p>In the 1980s,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IBM\">IBM</a>The company chose Microsoft to write key operating system software for its new PC-a major turning point in Microsoft's development.</p><p>But because of the time crunch and the complexity of the program, Microsoft paid $50,000 from a Seattle programmer<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDCO\">Patterson</a>I bought the right to use an operating system and rewrote it into disk operating system software (MS-DOS).</p><p>MS-DOS is just a single-user and single-task operating system. Windows 95, Windows 98 and Windows Me are based on DOS as the operating system carrier.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3eb22081c598a5e266f2c4c9401296b4\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"450\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The popularization of MS-DOS in IBM-PC has achieved great success. Other PC manufacturers wanted to be compatible with IBM, so in the 1980s, it became the standard operating system for PCs.</p><p>In 1995, at the age of 39, Gates rose to the top of the world's richest man with a net worth of $12.9 billion. Microsoft had $5.9 billion in sales and 17,801 employees that year.</p><p>In fact, from 1995 to 2007, Gates ranked number one on Forbes' list of the richest people in the world for 13 consecutive years, becoming the biggest winner in his life.</p><p>Cross-Century Masterpiece: Windows</p><p>On November 10, 1983, the Windows operating system made its debut. The product is an evolved version of the MS-DOS operating system and provides a graphical user interface.</p><p>Microsoft Windows 1.0 was officially launched in 1985, ending the command line era of Microsoft's operating system.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1254e9ffec99643fce081d8cf482fe86\" tg-width=\"770\" tg-height=\"578\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Unlike Windows, MS-DOS operates by using commands, and the system runs the program according to the commands entered by the user.</p><p>While Windows 1.0 allows users to point and click to access Windows instead of typing MS-DOS commands.</p><p>The Windows 1.0 operating system released by Microsoft is actually an extension of MS-DOS, which was not welcomed at that time. With continuous iterations, Windows 3.0 finally ushered in its initial victory.</p><p>It was late 1989 and Microsoft was working hard to finalize the best version of Windows it knew to date.</p><p>Windows 3.0 bets heavily on the graphical user interface with a new 3D bevel design and shiny new icons.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6ccb74506a615c95fede98719e5a01e7\" tg-width=\"650\" tg-height=\"400\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>It's an exciting product, as Microsoft said at the time.</p><p>After more than twenty years of development, Microsoft released the Windows 10 operating system that everyone is using today on July 29, 2015.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/737fb0e0e36329d02dda162f6217873e\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"607\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>The end of the king</b></p><p>Microsoft in the Ballmer era lost again and again.</p><p>In 2000, Bill Gates handed over the CEO position to Steve Ballmer, who had been in charge of the company's operations and day-to-day management,</p><p>Also created a new position for myself: Chief Software Architect.</p><p>Until 2008, Ballmer succeeded Gates as president of Microsoft. In the 13 years at the helm, although Ballmer led Microsoft to achieve excellent results: three times the number of employees, four times the annual revenue and ten times the annual profit.</p><p>However, as Microsoft's second CEO, Ballmer has suffered a lot of criticism.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/47a1c1c6a3202fad77c2295afba1941b\" tg-width=\"611\" tg-height=\"350\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>He led Microsoft's repeated attempts to fail. Windows Phone was strangled by iOS and Android, Windows 8 was frequently criticized, and cloud computing was difficult to break through.</p><p>During Ballmer's tenure as CEO, Microsoft's enormous potential has permeated every aspect of the software world, and it is simply invincible,</p><p>Windows's share of the PC operating system market exceeds 90%, and Microsoft's huge influence has put great pressure on its software peers, pushing itself into the position of defendant in antitrust law.</p><p><b>Empire Strikes Back: Return of the Age of Kings</b></p><p>In 2014, Satya Nadella, a 46-year-old Indian, officially took over as Microsoft's third CEO.</p><p>At that time, Microsoft was like a twilight giant, unable to keep up with the pace of the times, but Nadella directed the great revival of Microsoft by himself.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7712e4be90659dbfcbf9846d854a78f4\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"561\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Nadella not only transformed Microsoft's business strategy, but also reformed Microsoft's corporate culture. He has been working to change the way Microsoft operates by changing the way it thinks.</p><p>By now, Microsoft's market value has reached $1.83 trillion.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3c1f2c20c30d838a32a1308b380d46a2\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"749\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In the next five years, Nadella led Microsoft to find its way again.</p><p>Microsoft axed former CEO Ballmer's $7.2 billion acquisition<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NOK\">Nokia</a>The mobile phone business, announced the largest layoffs in history, with layoffs accounting for 14% of the company's global workforce of more than 120,000 people.</p><p>All these trade-offs are all to focus the development on cloud services.</p><p>Under Nadella's leadership, Microsoft cut the budget of its Windows division and built a huge cloud computing business-Microsoft Azure.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/21984c7ce006e141c0b3fc7c52ef93b5\" tg-width=\"902\" tg-height=\"528\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Currently, Microsoft's cloud platform Azure has won the favor of many large enterprise customers.</p><p>Office, our Office productivity software, is also gradually becoming a cloud service. It has gained more than 214 million subscribers, and these users pay a subscription fee of $99 each year.</p><p>In the eyes of Microsoft internal employees, Nadella's transformation of corporate culture has contributed a lot to the company's revival!</p><p>Microsoft, left by the previous CEO, is in a serious internal fight, with executives fighting for power and teams shirking responsibility when they encounter problems.</p><p>In \"Refresh-Rediscovering Business and the Future,\" Nadella bluntly said, \"Business strategy transformation is not his first priority as Microsoft CEO. The CEO is the CEO, but also the cultural executive.\"</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6fccecc75731bd7c7a26ad4906aa6762\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"443\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>He inspired Microsoft employees to become \"learn-it-all\" people.</p><p>From Windows to the cloud, Nadella transformed Microsoft's chariot and achieved Microsoft's market value of trillion dollars.</p><p>Microsoft is 46 years old, and it is still king when it returns.</p>","source":"lsy1569730104218","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>46-year-old Microsoft: From Gates building empire to Nadella revival</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n46-year-old Microsoft: From Gates building empire to Nadella revival\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">新智元</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-04-05 13:54</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Founded by Bill Gates and Paul Allen on April 4, 1975<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">Microsoft</a>Since then, 46 years have passed. Microsoft has gone all the way, rising, ending and then fighting back, completing the gorgeous transformation step by step.</p><p>April 4, 2021, is Microsoft's 46th birthday!</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c556eaf14e7888dab1569feac7a8a3ed\" tg-width=\"580\" tg-height=\"340\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>It has been 46 years since Bill Gates and Paul Allen founded Microsoft in 1975.</p><p>Like a 46-year-old middle-aged man, Microsoft finally survived the midlife crisis and returned to the high-profile and dazzling technology throne with a mature and low-key attitude.</p><p>In order to commemorate those years we walked together, Xiaobian rummaged through boxes and found out Microsoft's journey all the way.</p><p><b>The Rise of the Empire</b></p><p>When it comes to Microsoft, we have to start with Bill Gates, a man of the hour.</p><p>Bill Gates, 19, should be the most successful Harvard dropout.</p><p>In 1975, Bill Gates dropped out of Harvard University to sell with his high school alum Paul Allen. BASIC (Beginners' All-purpose Symbolic Instruction Code). BASIC is \"Beginner's General Symbolic Instruction Code\", a programming language designed for beginners.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e3b47fb0cff04e915c75dd116783ea1\" tg-width=\"919\" tg-height=\"611\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>While Gates was still studying at Harvard, they also programmed languages for MITS' Altair.</p><p>Later, Gates and Allen moved to Albuquerque, New Mexico, USA, and founded Microsoft in a local hotel room. In the early days of the company's founding, the main business of modifying BASIC programs continued to grow.</p><p>So, do you know how Microsoft got its name?</p><p>The word Microsoft consists of two parts: \"Microcomputer\" and \"software\".</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd1624aa9d27000141305dda2459fa51\" tg-width=\"480\" tg-height=\"288\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>If you know DOS, this will fully reveal your age!</p><p>In the 1980s,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IBM\">IBM</a>The company chose Microsoft to write key operating system software for its new PC-a major turning point in Microsoft's development.</p><p>But because of the time crunch and the complexity of the program, Microsoft paid $50,000 from a Seattle programmer<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDCO\">Patterson</a>I bought the right to use an operating system and rewrote it into disk operating system software (MS-DOS).</p><p>MS-DOS is just a single-user and single-task operating system. Windows 95, Windows 98 and Windows Me are based on DOS as the operating system carrier.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3eb22081c598a5e266f2c4c9401296b4\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"450\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The popularization of MS-DOS in IBM-PC has achieved great success. Other PC manufacturers wanted to be compatible with IBM, so in the 1980s, it became the standard operating system for PCs.</p><p>In 1995, at the age of 39, Gates rose to the top of the world's richest man with a net worth of $12.9 billion. Microsoft had $5.9 billion in sales and 17,801 employees that year.</p><p>In fact, from 1995 to 2007, Gates ranked number one on Forbes' list of the richest people in the world for 13 consecutive years, becoming the biggest winner in his life.</p><p>Cross-Century Masterpiece: Windows</p><p>On November 10, 1983, the Windows operating system made its debut. The product is an evolved version of the MS-DOS operating system and provides a graphical user interface.</p><p>Microsoft Windows 1.0 was officially launched in 1985, ending the command line era of Microsoft's operating system.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1254e9ffec99643fce081d8cf482fe86\" tg-width=\"770\" tg-height=\"578\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Unlike Windows, MS-DOS operates by using commands, and the system runs the program according to the commands entered by the user.</p><p>While Windows 1.0 allows users to point and click to access Windows instead of typing MS-DOS commands.</p><p>The Windows 1.0 operating system released by Microsoft is actually an extension of MS-DOS, which was not welcomed at that time. With continuous iterations, Windows 3.0 finally ushered in its initial victory.</p><p>It was late 1989 and Microsoft was working hard to finalize the best version of Windows it knew to date.</p><p>Windows 3.0 bets heavily on the graphical user interface with a new 3D bevel design and shiny new icons.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6ccb74506a615c95fede98719e5a01e7\" tg-width=\"650\" tg-height=\"400\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>It's an exciting product, as Microsoft said at the time.</p><p>After more than twenty years of development, Microsoft released the Windows 10 operating system that everyone is using today on July 29, 2015.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/737fb0e0e36329d02dda162f6217873e\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"607\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>The end of the king</b></p><p>Microsoft in the Ballmer era lost again and again.</p><p>In 2000, Bill Gates handed over the CEO position to Steve Ballmer, who had been in charge of the company's operations and day-to-day management,</p><p>Also created a new position for myself: Chief Software Architect.</p><p>Until 2008, Ballmer succeeded Gates as president of Microsoft. In the 13 years at the helm, although Ballmer led Microsoft to achieve excellent results: three times the number of employees, four times the annual revenue and ten times the annual profit.</p><p>However, as Microsoft's second CEO, Ballmer has suffered a lot of criticism.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/47a1c1c6a3202fad77c2295afba1941b\" tg-width=\"611\" tg-height=\"350\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>He led Microsoft's repeated attempts to fail. Windows Phone was strangled by iOS and Android, Windows 8 was frequently criticized, and cloud computing was difficult to break through.</p><p>During Ballmer's tenure as CEO, Microsoft's enormous potential has permeated every aspect of the software world, and it is simply invincible,</p><p>Windows's share of the PC operating system market exceeds 90%, and Microsoft's huge influence has put great pressure on its software peers, pushing itself into the position of defendant in antitrust law.</p><p><b>Empire Strikes Back: Return of the Age of Kings</b></p><p>In 2014, Satya Nadella, a 46-year-old Indian, officially took over as Microsoft's third CEO.</p><p>At that time, Microsoft was like a twilight giant, unable to keep up with the pace of the times, but Nadella directed the great revival of Microsoft by himself.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7712e4be90659dbfcbf9846d854a78f4\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"561\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Nadella not only transformed Microsoft's business strategy, but also reformed Microsoft's corporate culture. He has been working to change the way Microsoft operates by changing the way it thinks.</p><p>By now, Microsoft's market value has reached $1.83 trillion.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3c1f2c20c30d838a32a1308b380d46a2\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"749\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In the next five years, Nadella led Microsoft to find its way again.</p><p>Microsoft axed former CEO Ballmer's $7.2 billion acquisition<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NOK\">Nokia</a>The mobile phone business, announced the largest layoffs in history, with layoffs accounting for 14% of the company's global workforce of more than 120,000 people.</p><p>All these trade-offs are all to focus the development on cloud services.</p><p>Under Nadella's leadership, Microsoft cut the budget of its Windows division and built a huge cloud computing business-Microsoft Azure.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/21984c7ce006e141c0b3fc7c52ef93b5\" tg-width=\"902\" tg-height=\"528\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Currently, Microsoft's cloud platform Azure has won the favor of many large enterprise customers.</p><p>Office, our Office productivity software, is also gradually becoming a cloud service. It has gained more than 214 million subscribers, and these users pay a subscription fee of $99 each year.</p><p>In the eyes of Microsoft internal employees, Nadella's transformation of corporate culture has contributed a lot to the company's revival!</p><p>Microsoft, left by the previous CEO, is in a serious internal fight, with executives fighting for power and teams shirking responsibility when they encounter problems.</p><p>In \"Refresh-Rediscovering Business and the Future,\" Nadella bluntly said, \"Business strategy transformation is not his first priority as Microsoft CEO. The CEO is the CEO, but also the cultural executive.\"</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6fccecc75731bd7c7a26ad4906aa6762\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"443\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>He inspired Microsoft employees to become \"learn-it-all\" people.</p><p>From Windows to the cloud, Nadella transformed Microsoft's chariot and achieved Microsoft's market value of trillion dollars.</p><p>Microsoft is 46 years old, and it is still king when it returns.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/EG0UhC7JbuuFF6EcdIBbpg\">新智元</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/556acfb895c7cc721517dba494c0775b","relate_stocks":{"MSFT":"微软"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/EG0UhC7JbuuFF6EcdIBbpg","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1148759697","content_text":"距离1975年4月4日比尔·盖茨与保罗·艾伦创办微软以来，已经过去了46个年头。微软一路走来，崛起，落幕再到反击，一步步地完成华丽蜕变。\n2021年4月4日，是微软46周岁的生日！\n\n距离1975年比尔·盖茨(Bill Gates)与保罗·艾伦(Paul Allen)创办微软，已经过去了46个年头。\n就像46岁的中年人，微软终于熬过了中年危机，以成熟低调的姿态重回高调耀眼的科技王座。\n为了纪念共同走过的那些岁月，小编翻箱倒柜，找出了微软一路走来的历程。\n帝国的崛起\n提到微软，还得从比尔·盖茨这一风云人物说起。\n19岁的比尔·盖茨应该是最成功的哈佛辍学者。\n1975年，比尔·盖茨从哈佛大学退学，和他的高中校友保罗·艾伦一起卖BASIC（Beginners' All-purpose Symbolic Instruction Code）。BASIC是「初学者通用符号指令代码」，是一种设计给初学者使用的程序设计语言。\n\n当盖茨还在哈佛读书时，他们还曾为MITS公司的Altair编制语言。\n后来，盖茨和艾伦搬到美国新墨西哥州阿尔伯克基，并在当地一家旅馆房间里创建了微软公司，公司创立初期以修改BASIC程序为主要业务继续发展。\n那么，你知道Microsoft这个名字如何得来的吗？\nMicrosoft一词由「Microcomputer」和「software」两部分组成。\n\n如果你知道DOS，这会充分暴露你的年龄！\n20世纪80年代，IBM公司选中微软为其新PC编写关键的操作系统软件——这成为微软发展中的一个重大转折点。\n但是由于当时时间紧迫，程序复杂，微软便以5万美元的价格从西雅图的一位程序编制者帕特森手中买下了一个操作系统的使用权，再把它改写为磁盘操作系统软件（MS-DOS）。\nMS-DOS只是一个单用户单任务的操作系统，像Windows 95、Windows 98和Windows Me等正是以DOS为操作系统载体。\n\nMS-DOS在IBM-PC机的普及取得了巨大的成功。其他的PC制造者都希望与IBM兼容，因此80年代，它成了PC机的标准操作系统。\n1995年，正值39岁的盖茨以129亿美元身价登顶世界首富的王座。微软当年销售收入为59亿美元，员工达到了17801人。\n实际上从1995年到2007年，盖茨连续13年《福布斯》全球首富排行榜第一，成为最大的人生赢家。\n跨世纪大作：Windows\n1983年11月10日，Windows操作系统首次登台亮相。该产品是MS-DOS操作系统的演进版，并提供了图形用户界面。\nMicrosoft Windows 1.0 于1985年正式推出，结束了微软操作系统的命令行时代。\n\n与Windows不同，MS-DOS通过使用命令来进行操作，系统根据用户输入的命令进行程序的运行。\n而Windows 1.0允许用户指向并单击以访问Windows，而不是键入MS-DOS命令。\n微软发布的Windows 1.0操作系统其实就是对MS-DOS的扩展，在当时没有受到欢迎。随着不断迭代，Windows 3.0终于迎来了最初的胜利。\n那是1989年末，微软正在努力工作，最终敲定了它所知道的迄今为止最好的Windows版本。\nWindows 3.0版通过一个新的3D斜面设计和闪亮的新图标在图形用户界面上投下了重注。\n\n正如微软当时所说，这是一个令人兴奋的产品。\n经过二十多年的发展，微软在2015年7月29日发布了如今大家都在使用的Windows 10操作系统。\n\n王者的落幕\n鲍尔默时代的微软一败再败。\n2000年比尔·盖茨把首席执行官的位置交给了曾经负责公司运营和日常管理的史蒂夫·鲍尔默，\n还给自己创建了一个新的职位：首席软件构架师。\n直到2008年，鲍尔默接替盖茨成为微软的总裁。在执掌微软的13年间，虽然鲍尔默带领微软创下了优秀的成绩：员工数增加3倍，年营收增长4倍，年利润增长10倍。\n但是，作为微软的第二任 CEO，鲍尔默遭受过很多的批评。\n\n他带领着微软的屡次尝试多以失败告终，Windows Phone 遭 iOS、Android 绞杀，Windows 8 频遭诟病，云计算难于突破。\n在鲍尔默出任微软CEO期间，微软的巨大潜力已经渗透到了软件界的方方面面，简直是所向披靡，\nWindows在PC操作系统市场的份额超过90%，微软的巨大影响已经对软件同行构成了极大的压力，把自己推上了反垄断法的被告位置。\n帝国反击：王者时代的归来\n2014年，一位46岁的印度人——萨蒂亚·纳德拉(Satya Nadella)正式接任微软第三任CEO。\n那时的微软犹如一个迟暮的巨人，难以追逐时代的步伐，而纳德拉却一手导演了微软的伟大复兴。\n\n纳德拉不仅仅是转变了微软的商业策略，还改革了微软的企业文化。他一直致力于通过改变微软的思维方式改变其运作方式。\n到现在，微软市值已经达1.83万亿美元。\n\n此后的5年中，纳德拉带领微软重新找到了方向。\n微软裁撤了前CEO鲍尔默以72亿美元收购的诺基亚手机业务，宣布历史上最大规模的裁员，裁员人数占该公司全球12多万名员工总数的14%。\n这一切取舍，全是为了将开发重心放在云端服务上。\n在纳德拉的领导下，微软削减了Windows部门的预算，并且建立了一个庞大的云计算业务——Microsoft Azure。\n\n目前，微软的云平台Azure赢得了许多大型企业客户的青睐。\n我们办公生产力软件Office也逐渐成为一个云服务，它获得了超过2.14亿订阅用户，这些用户每年都要缴纳99美元的订阅费。\n在微软内部员工看来，公司的复兴，纳德拉对企业文化的改造功不可没！\n上任CEO留下的微软正处于严重内斗之中，高管争权，团队之间遇到问题相互推卸责任。\n在《刷新——重新发现商业与未来》一书中，纳德拉直言，「商业策略转型并非他作为微软CEO的第一要务，CEO是首席执行官，更是文化执行官。」\n\n他激励微软员工成为「无所不学」（learn-it-all）的人。\n从Windows到云，纳德拉改造微软战车，成就了微软万亿美元市值。\n微软46岁，归来仍是王者。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"MSFT":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5018,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":340031505,"gmtCreate":1617321307907,"gmtModify":1704698689434,"author":{"id":"3557305548001793","authorId":"3557305548001793","name":"Ikhas","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a0fd7b69b3c00ecf9cc780ede0cf5943","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3557305548001793","idStr":"3557305548001793"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"industry revolution","listText":"industry revolution","text":"industry 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bang","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/343067970","repostId":"2124543317","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4996,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":356767945,"gmtCreate":1616817952187,"gmtModify":1704799383138,"author":{"id":"3557305548001793","authorId":"3557305548001793","name":"Ikhas","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a0fd7b69b3c00ecf9cc780ede0cf5943","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3557305548001793","idStr":"3557305548001793"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"infrastructure improvemnet by Joe","listText":"infrastructure improvemnet by Joe","text":"infrastructure improvemnet by 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Spread組合詳解","htmlText":"近期實在是有點忙不開，內容更新的有點慢，還請各位海涵，收到不少朋友的諮詢，說老魯我之前講的內容太過於專業，很多知識點消化不掉，操作上更是不敢下手，目前大部分操作還是以買call和買put爲主，短期內做對了也會有大幾百的收益率，但長期整體算下來還是虧損居多。 其實這位朋友反映的問題也是大部分新手目前的情況，這個階段老魯我也經歷過，多半是沉醉於自己的一兩次成功交易，而忘記覆盤下歷史所有交易的勝率有多少，長期下來，多數人是跑贏不了市場的，最終賺的錢還得一分不少的吐出來。 過了新手這個階段纔會認識到自己的交易知識需要提高，然後就開始拼命學習技術指標、企業財務分析、宏觀經濟、期權交易策略等等，學了一圈後發現原來交易股票和期權需要做出很多邏輯上的判斷，有了自己的觀點才能定方向；而不是像以前看到大v推薦就買，一條利好消息就全倉衝進去，結果賠個低兒掉 講了這麼多，我想表達的是：做交易，更需要學習的是交易你的觀點和邏輯，而不是跟單。如果僅僅是爲了跟單，爲何不去跟ark基金木頭姐的公開持倉呢，官網每天都會公佈每日買賣情況，而且都是行業專家選股，怎麼着也比大V更專業吧。 其實稍有點交易經驗的投資者都知道，即使給了你結果，這作業你也抄不好，沒自己的交易觀點，跌了就慌，慌了就跑，跑了就漲，根本也拿不住。 好了，又絮絮叨叨講了這麼多，我們進入正題！ 經常做期權交易的朋友會遇到這樣的情況：做期權看漲就買call，看跌就買put，太複雜了自己也看不懂，得過且過差不多就可以了，大不了虧了就跑 我接觸的投資者多數還是停留在這種認知層面上的，不能否定這種思維是錯誤的，但我的觀點是：你只需要每天學習一點，就會變得比現在更加優秀，市場幾千只股票，沒有人可以賺到認知以外的錢，如果有，那一定是運氣，如果你一直有好的運氣，也不會來看我的內容。不過我始終相信，看過我所有內容的朋友，認知都是高於其投資者的。 好，今天咱就把上","listText":"近期實在是有點忙不開，內容更新的有點慢，還請各位海涵，收到不少朋友的諮詢，說老魯我之前講的內容太過於專業，很多知識點消化不掉，操作上更是不敢下手，目前大部分操作還是以買call和買put爲主，短期內做對了也會有大幾百的收益率，但長期整體算下來還是虧損居多。 其實這位朋友反映的問題也是大部分新手目前的情況，這個階段老魯我也經歷過，多半是沉醉於自己的一兩次成功交易，而忘記覆盤下歷史所有交易的勝率有多少，長期下來，多數人是跑贏不了市場的，最終賺的錢還得一分不少的吐出來。 過了新手這個階段纔會認識到自己的交易知識需要提高，然後就開始拼命學習技術指標、企業財務分析、宏觀經濟、期權交易策略等等，學了一圈後發現原來交易股票和期權需要做出很多邏輯上的判斷，有了自己的觀點才能定方向；而不是像以前看到大v推薦就買，一條利好消息就全倉衝進去，結果賠個低兒掉 講了這麼多，我想表達的是：做交易，更需要學習的是交易你的觀點和邏輯，而不是跟單。如果僅僅是爲了跟單，爲何不去跟ark基金木頭姐的公開持倉呢，官網每天都會公佈每日買賣情況，而且都是行業專家選股，怎麼着也比大V更專業吧。 其實稍有點交易經驗的投資者都知道，即使給了你結果，這作業你也抄不好，沒自己的交易觀點，跌了就慌，慌了就跑，跑了就漲，根本也拿不住。 好了，又絮絮叨叨講了這麼多，我們進入正題！ 經常做期權交易的朋友會遇到這樣的情況：做期權看漲就買call，看跌就買put，太複雜了自己也看不懂，得過且過差不多就可以了，大不了虧了就跑 我接觸的投資者多數還是停留在這種認知層面上的，不能否定這種思維是錯誤的，但我的觀點是：你只需要每天學習一點，就會變得比現在更加優秀，市場幾千只股票，沒有人可以賺到認知以外的錢，如果有，那一定是運氣，如果你一直有好的運氣，也不會來看我的內容。不過我始終相信，看過我所有內容的朋友，認知都是高於其投資者的。 好，今天咱就把上","text":"近期實在是有點忙不開，內容更新的有點慢，還請各位海涵，收到不少朋友的諮詢，說老魯我之前講的內容太過於專業，很多知識點消化不掉，操作上更是不敢下手，目前大部分操作還是以買call和買put爲主，短期內做對了也會有大幾百的收益率，但長期整體算下來還是虧損居多。 其實這位朋友反映的問題也是大部分新手目前的情況，這個階段老魯我也經歷過，多半是沉醉於自己的一兩次成功交易，而忘記覆盤下歷史所有交易的勝率有多少，長期下來，多數人是跑贏不了市場的，最終賺的錢還得一分不少的吐出來。 過了新手這個階段纔會認識到自己的交易知識需要提高，然後就開始拼命學習技術指標、企業財務分析、宏觀經濟、期權交易策略等等，學了一圈後發現原來交易股票和期權需要做出很多邏輯上的判斷，有了自己的觀點才能定方向；而不是像以前看到大v推薦就買，一條利好消息就全倉衝進去，結果賠個低兒掉 講了這麼多，我想表達的是：做交易，更需要學習的是交易你的觀點和邏輯，而不是跟單。如果僅僅是爲了跟單，爲何不去跟ark基金木頭姐的公開持倉呢，官網每天都會公佈每日買賣情況，而且都是行業專家選股，怎麼着也比大V更專業吧。 其實稍有點交易經驗的投資者都知道，即使給了你結果，這作業你也抄不好，沒自己的交易觀點，跌了就慌，慌了就跑，跑了就漲，根本也拿不住。 好了，又絮絮叨叨講了這麼多，我們進入正題！ 經常做期權交易的朋友會遇到這樣的情況：做期權看漲就買call，看跌就買put，太複雜了自己也看不懂，得過且過差不多就可以了，大不了虧了就跑 我接觸的投資者多數還是停留在這種認知層面上的，不能否定這種思維是錯誤的，但我的觀點是：你只需要每天學習一點，就會變得比現在更加優秀，市場幾千只股票，沒有人可以賺到認知以外的錢，如果有，那一定是運氣，如果你一直有好的運氣，也不會來看我的內容。不過我始終相信，看過我所有內容的朋友，認知都是高於其投資者的。 好，今天咱就把上","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c6a22078cb72fd73a48d6eb09c04e468","width":"688","height":"201"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6f78371d8574e283ad99261f2145f747","width":"554","height":"54"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/126a537f9a74b8d887a69eab2333de2a","width":"688","height":"636"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/831047902","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":36,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5231,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":897145092,"gmtCreate":1628902403616,"gmtModify":1676529888262,"author":{"id":"3557305548001793","authorId":"3557305548001793","name":"Ikhas","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a0fd7b69b3c00ecf9cc780ede0cf5943","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3557305548001793","idStr":"3557305548001793"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"go&nbsp;","listText":"go&nbsp;","text":"go","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/897145092","repostId":"2159216292","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2159216292","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1628853577,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2159216292?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-08-13 19:19","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Palantir (PLTR.US) Solid Q2 Results, Wall Street Remains Doubtful About Growth Sustainability","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2159216292","media":"智通财经网","summary":"智通财经APP获悉，Palantir于周四美股盘前公布了其2021财年二季度业绩。分析师表示，Palantir此前公布的二季度营收同比增长49%，非常亮眼，且该公司预计2021-2025年营收复合年增长率将达30%。分析师指出，该公司商业部门的业绩更为强劲，二季度净增20个新客户，且营收增长加速。Wolfe Research分析师Alex Zukin维持Palantir“与大盘持平”评级，目标价由20美元上调至25美元。","content":"<p><html><body><article>Zhitong Finance APP learned that Palantir (PLTR.US) announced its fiscal 2021 second quarter results on Thursday before the U.S. stock market belled. According to the financial report, the company's Q2 revenue was 376 million USD, a year-on-year increase of 49%; Net loss of $139 million, compared with $110 million in the same period last year; Basic and diluted loss per share was $0.07, compared to $0.17 in the prior year quarter. After the earnings report, many investment banks raised their target prices for the stock.</p><p>Here's an analysis of the stock's ratings from several investment banks:</p><p><strong>Jefferies analyst Brent Thill maintained a \"Buy\" rating on Palantir with a price target raised to $30 from $28.</strong>Analysts said that Palantir's previously reported second-quarter revenue growth of 49% year-on-year was very eye-catching, and the company expects the compound annual growth rate of revenue from 2021 to 2025 to reach 30%. Analysts believe the company will \"move into the next phase commercially\" and remain positive about the company's long-term opportunities and \"unique positioning to address the most mission-critical workloads.\"</p><p><strong><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a>Analyst Keith Weiss maintained an \"underweight\" rating on Palantir and raised his price target to $22 from $19.</strong>Analysts pointed out that the performance of the company's commercial division was stronger, with a net increase of 20 new customers in the second quarter and an accelerated revenue growth. But analysts are skeptical about the durability of the growth, as the company's customers who make strategic investments contribute heavily to its top line.</p><p><strong>Wolfe Research analyst Alex Zukin maintained a \"Market Flat\" rating on Palantir with a price target raised to $25 from $20.</strong>Analysts said the company reported a \"solid earnings report\", with total revenue in the second quarter exceeding the median estimate by 4.3% and bookings \"equally strong\"; But he's on the fence on the stock given the company's valuation and difficulties surrounding growth.</p><p></article></body></html></p>","source":"tencent","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Palantir (PLTR.US) Solid Q2 Results, Wall Street Remains Doubtful About Growth Sustainability</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPalantir (PLTR.US) Solid Q2 Results, Wall Street Remains Doubtful About Growth Sustainability\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">智通财经网</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-13 19:19</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><body><article>Zhitong Finance APP learned that Palantir (PLTR.US) announced its fiscal 2021 second quarter results on Thursday before the U.S. stock market belled. According to the financial report, the company's Q2 revenue was 376 million USD, a year-on-year increase of 49%; Net loss of $139 million, compared with $110 million in the same period last year; Basic and diluted loss per share was $0.07, compared to $0.17 in the prior year quarter. After the earnings report, many investment banks raised their target prices for the stock.</p><p>Here's an analysis of the stock's ratings from several investment banks:</p><p><strong>Jefferies analyst Brent Thill maintained a \"Buy\" rating on Palantir with a price target raised to $30 from $28.</strong>Analysts said that Palantir's previously reported second-quarter revenue growth of 49% year-on-year was very eye-catching, and the company expects the compound annual growth rate of revenue from 2021 to 2025 to reach 30%. Analysts believe the company will \"move into the next phase commercially\" and remain positive about the company's long-term opportunities and \"unique positioning to address the most mission-critical workloads.\"</p><p><strong><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a>Analyst Keith Weiss maintained an \"underweight\" rating on Palantir and raised his price target to $22 from $19.</strong>Analysts pointed out that the performance of the company's commercial division was stronger, with a net increase of 20 new customers in the second quarter and an accelerated revenue growth. But analysts are skeptical about the durability of the growth, as the company's customers who make strategic investments contribute heavily to its top line.</p><p><strong>Wolfe Research analyst Alex Zukin maintained a \"Market Flat\" rating on Palantir with a price target raised to $25 from $20.</strong>Analysts said the company reported a \"solid earnings report\", with total revenue in the second quarter exceeding the median estimate by 4.3% and bookings \"equally strong\"; But he's on the fence on the stock given the company's valuation and difficulties surrounding growth.</p><p></article></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN202108131922067c2dd2a1&s=b\">智通财经网</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c318bcd91a109139b7d70c76c30bb154","relate_stocks":{"PLTR":"Palantir Technologies Inc."},"source_url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN202108131922067c2dd2a1&s=b","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/9a95c1376e76363c1401fee7d3717173","article_id":"2159216292","content_text":"智通财经APP获悉，Palantir(PLTR.US)于周四美股盘前公布了其2021财年二季度业绩。财报显示，该公司Q2营收3.76亿美元，同比增长49%;净亏损1.39亿美元，上年同期为1.10亿美元;基本和摊薄每股亏损0.07美元，上年同期为0.17美元。财报公布后，不少投行上调了对该股的目标价。以下是几家投行对该股的评级分析：Jefferies分析师Brent Thill维持Palantir“买入”评级，目标价由28美元上调至30美元。分析师表示，Palantir此前公布的二季度营收同比增长49%，非常亮眼，且该公司预计2021-2025年营收复合年增长率将达30%。分析师认为，该公司将“在商业上进入下一阶段”，并仍对该公司的长期机遇和“解决最关键任务工作负载的独特定位”持积极态度。摩根士丹利分析师Keith Weiss维持Palantir“减持”评级，目标价由19美元上调至22美元。分析师指出，该公司商业部门的业绩更为强劲，二季度净增20个新客户，且营收增长加速。但分析师对增长的持久性表示怀疑，因为该公司进行战略投资的客户对其营收贡献巨大。Wolfe Research分析师Alex Zukin维持Palantir“与大盘持平”评级，目标价由20美元上调至25美元。分析师表示，该公司公布了“稳健的财报”，二季度总营收超过预期中值4.3%，且预订量“同样强劲”;但鉴于该公司的估值和围绕增长的困难，他对该股持观望态度。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"PLTR":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5154,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":344038291,"gmtCreate":1618359355413,"gmtModify":1704709572707,"author":{"id":"3557305548001793","authorId":"3557305548001793","name":"Ikhas","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a0fd7b69b3c00ecf9cc780ede0cf5943","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3557305548001793","idStr":"3557305548001793"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"soaring bit","listText":"soaring bit","text":"soaring bit","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/344038291","repostId":"2127015413","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2127015413","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1618311061,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2127015413?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-04-13 18:51","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Coinbase Apocalypse: The Cryptocurrency American Dream Starting with Eleven Page PPT","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2127015413","media":"深潮TechFlow","summary":"历史一刻即将来临，Coinbase将于周三（14日）在美国纳斯达克上市（代码COIN），成为加密货币世界的里程碑。彭博社消息，Coinbase估值或高达约1000亿美元，这一数值超过纳斯达克交易所加纽","content":"<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d202e56fe292c12f1ec756eff7095093\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"565\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">A moment in history is approaching when Coinbase will become a milestone in the cryptocurrency world by listing on the US NASDAQ (symbol COIN) on Wednesday (14th).</p><p>Bloomberg news,<b>Coinbase's valuation may be as high as about $100 billion, which is more than the combined market capitalization of the parent company on the Nasdaq and New York Stock Exchange.</b></p><p>Coinbase, founded in 2012, does not have many legends of barbaric growth. If the global cryptocurrency exchange is compared to a classroom, then Coinbase is a typical \"obedient student\": its early grades are average, there are many exchanges with larger trading volume than Coinbase, and there are too many exchanges that are more innovative than Coinbase to mention, but Coinbase is honest and obedient, and it is deeply liked by teachers.</p><p>Finally, it happened that Coinbase came to the center of the stage.</p><p><b>Start with 11-page PPT</b></p><p>On Christmas, 2010, Brian Armstrong accidentally read the Bitcoin White Paper, which opened the door to cryptocurrency. He bought more than 1,000 Bitcoin at the price of $9. When the price in Bitcoin once fell to $2, Armstrong didn't leave the market, but always bought Bitcoin by writing code. At the same time, he perceived the entrepreneurial opportunities. Maybe he could create a Bitcoin company himself?</p><p>Two summers later, Brian co-founded Coinbase with partner Fred Ehrsam, in the form of a wallet.</p><p>The duo envisioned that Coinbase would become a Bitcoin marketplace where people could buy cryptocurrencies. Then, they registered Coinbase in the Y Combinator startup incubator project. At the YC Roadshow Day, Brian Armstrong used 11 pages of PPT to describe Coinbase's ideal and vision.<b>\"Coinbase is to Bitcoin what iTunes is to MP3.\"</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c0e0708ac639513c2410ebd1f0b1f841\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"464\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b17b9ebe53adbaca801f770d01bb7ca4\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"464\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/41bede434eab58fecec80fecdd6b3342\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"464\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f7342cc4cdece884e5f61c86d6676cb7\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"464\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a9b15b37dce81a9a98c9abebf9f3131c\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"464\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ae93cc3c61acfa7f72226dcbfb089420\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"464\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/954b4809a22c5020b4c771f0e55fa799\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"464\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/531e25c0f2ef847d1a8b6120996897b2\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"464\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/37fe7fed51c3899aeeb0cf77acd5b5f3\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"464\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6e161463a850b34c79a7a3488583edb8\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"464\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1c8e3d2c29cceb50fbf98a0680641c21\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"464\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">In 2017, when Brian Armstrong reviewed this eleven-page Pitch Deck, he was quite impressed and wrote this passage:</p><p><b>Great things start from humble beginnings.</b></p><p>Most of what you see around you starts out as nothing more than a simple idea and a crude prototype, and it takes five to 10 years to turn it into an \"overnight success\", with dozens of setbacks and route corrections along the way.</p><p><b>So, pick one thing you're passionate about and get started.</b></p><p><b>Slow and fast compliance</b></p><p>Duan Yongping once said, \"Slow is fast\".</p><p>Coinbase is not a case of rapid rise and savage growth. On the contrary, although it was established earlier, its trading volume was far surpassed by its descendants.</p><p>If the global cryptocurrency exchange is compared to a classroom, then Coinbase is the typical \"good student\":<b>Although his grades are average, he is honest and obedient, and is deeply liked by teachers.</b></p><p>At the crossroads of development speed and compliance, Coinbase chose compliance.</p><p>Coinbase has been investing heavily in obtaining regulatory licenses. It has Money Transmitter licenses in 50 states in the United States. At the same time, it has become one of the few exchanges with BitLicense specially issued by New York State for digital currency exchanges. It has obtained licenses to legally trade fiat currencies in 33 countries and opened up payment channels.</p><p>In addition to the exchange business, Coinbase has also applied for and acquired licenses on a large scale in the upstream and downstream of the industrial chain. At present, Coinbase has a series of financial licenses such as payment, savings, loans, financial derivatives trading, alternative asset trading, brokerage trading and investment consulting.</p><p>Previously, according to internal employees, the number of Coinbase's compliance team was once close to 1/3 of the company's, occupying a lot of the company's resources, which also led to Coinbase's high handling fees and insufficient investment in technology, operation and user experience.</p><p>Because of compliance, Coinbase is unable to offer a large number of currency trades, nor does it offer derivative trading such as contracts, resulting in it lagging far behind similar exchanges outside the United States in terms of trading volume.</p><p>In Coinbase's compliance process, Brian Brooks, the former chief legal officer, played a pivotal role, cooperating with various regulatory agencies and leading the construction of the Crypto Rating Council (CRC), an industry alliance.</p><p>In 2020, Brian Brooks was hired as supervisor<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>Head of the U.S. Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC).</p><p>Coinbase's compliance-focused business strategy did not allow it to achieve exponential growth in trading volume and finance in the short term. However, due to its compliance operation and regulatory recognition, it is far ahead of other similar companies in accessing the mainstream financial field, laying a solid foundation for its medium-and long-term development in the US market.</p><p>After completing its compliant infrastructure, delayed-gratifying Coinbase is finally seeing a harvest spring in 2021.</p><p>Coinbase has been \"applauded but not popular\" for a long time. It only made its first profit in 2017, with a net loss of $30 million in 2019. It wasn't until the bull market came in 2020 that it turned losses into profits, with a net profit of $322 million.</p><p>In the first quarter of 2021, Coinbase's performance exploded in an all-round way, achieving revenue of US$1.8 billion, a surge of 844% compared with the same period last year, and a net profit of nearly US$800 million.</p><p>This is all inseparable from Coinbase's early compliance building.</p><p><b>Building the Future</b></p><p>The slowness and stability of Coinbase also stems from Brian Armstrong's long-term planning.<b>Exchange business is the means, not the ultimate goal and destination of Coinbase.</b></p><p>In 2016, Brian Armstrong predicted the development of blockchain in the next few years according to the historical development law of the Internet. He divided his blockchain world future into four main stages, and according to what Coinbase can do at each stage, he formulated the development blueprint of Coinbase in the next ten years.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a8b4e8f8597b30239154d9904b4ec5b9\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"173\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>Phase 1 (Agreement Phase): Development Agreement (serving 1 million people)</b></p><p>At this stage, new protocols (Bitcoin, Ethereum, etc) were created and people began to improve these protocols.</p><p>The open source community will develop around each protocol, and in some cases, these protocols will be sponsored and helped by businesses. The race for protocols has begun, and it remains to be seen which protocol can be extended and attract application developers.</p><p>Coinbase will not be involved in this stage of development and will only keep working closely with some good players.</p><p><b>Phase 2 (infrastructure): Establishment of a digital currency exchange (serving 10 million people)</b></p><p>In Brain Armstrong's view, investment or speculation is an indispensable initialization acceleration mechanism for the establishment of future blockchain payment network, so exchange business is indispensable.</p><p>Initially just a wallet, Coinbase later established the GDAX exchange for institutional and professional investors, which is now known as Coinbase Pro, which constitutes the core business of Coinbase, and Coinbase will use the revenue from this phase to invest in the next phase of the plan, while continuing to expand these businesses to more countries.</p><p><b>Phase 3 (User Portal): Establishing a portal for digital currency applications (serving 100 million people)</b></p><p>When consumers start using blockchain applications (DApps), what they need is a simple user interface and portal. The portal in the Internet world is HTML and Web browser, which is built on the TCP/IP protocol.</p><p>In the blockchain world, Coinbase thinks it will be an undeveloped WEB browser equivalent, and its bottom layer may be a wallet completely controlled by users.</p><p>This will lower the threshold for ordinary people to use it and make it less difficult to develop blockchain applications.</p><p>Coinbase will participate in this phase by establishing or investing in relevant teams.</p><p><b>Phase 4 (Decentralized Application): Creating an Open Financial System Application (serving 1 billion people)</b></p><p>Brian Armstrong believes that the existing traditional financial system will be rebuilt into an open network that can be accessed by users around the world. The applications needed in the future include:</p><p>Loans (mortgages, small business loans, micro-loans, etc.) Venture capital (seed investments, traditional VCs, risky debt, etc.) Investments (stocks, index funds, savings accounts, etc.) Identity and reputation (ID cards, identity authentication, credit scores, etc.) Remittances (cross-border remittances) Merchant processing (retail, online orders) Coinbase will participate in this stage by building teams, acquiring and investing in various companies, and Coinbase will also build developer tools and cooperate with regulators to draft regulatory schemes suitable for this industry.</p><p>To sum up, in Brian Armstrong's plan, the exchange is only the first step in building an ecosystem, and the money earned by the exchange will be continuously used to participate in the next stage of infrastructure construction and investment, so as to finally occupy a place in the open financial system for a billion people.</p><p>In 2016, Brian Armstrong thought they were at the end of Phase 2, but still in the early stages of blockchain.</p><p>Since then, Coinbase has firmly implemented this plan, upgraded Gdax transactions to Coinbase Pro, developed institutional users, and continued to broaden its boundaries through acquisitions:</p><p>Developed the Wallet app Toshi, later renamed Coinbase Wallet; Acquisition of Ethereum dApp browser and wallet Cipher Browse; Acquisition of Ethereum P2P trading platform Paradex; Acquisition of Xapo's custody business; Acquired Tagomi, a master broker platform for digital asset trading; Acquisition of crypto trading infrastructure provider Routefire; Acquisition of blockchain infrastructure provider Bison Trails; Acquisition of cryptocurrency mission site Earn.com... Acquisition of three licensed financial services companies, securities dealer Keystone Capital, Venovate Marketlpace and Digital Wealth LLC.... Going public is not the end point and purpose of Coinbase. At present, everything Coinbase has done is still preparing for the fourth stage, building an open financial system of Coinbase ecosystem.</p><p><b>The 'American Dream' of Cryptocurrency</b></p><p>Coinbase's success is hard to replicate.</p><p>Lei Jun often said that pigs can fly when standing on the wind. There are many pigs who fly when standing on the wind of cryptocurrency, but there is only one Coinbase. Because it is in the United States, why do China, Japan and South Korea not have \"Coinbase\"?</p><p><b>The United States still holds monetary hegemony, is the center of global capital markets, and gradually gains the pricing power of Bitcoin.</b></p><p>In terms of supervision, China, the United States and Japan have different supervision ideas.</p><p>After the September 4th, \"heavy chain suppression of currency\" has become the main theme of China's blockchain world.</p><p>China defines blockchain as a<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/III\">Information Services</a>Technology, the main body of supervision is the Central Cyberspace Administration, while the financial risks that blockchain and cryptocurrency may bring are supervised by the People's Bank of China.</p><p>The regulatory agencies in the United States mainly include the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).</p><p>For token issuance and exchange, the United States does not adopt a one-size-fits-all approach, but incorporates practical tokens and securities tokens into the corresponding regulatory systems respectively. The issuance of securities attribute tokens needs to be registered in accordance with the securities law, and the exchange operation needs to obtain a license.</p><p>At the same time, the US SEC has frequently taken action to crack down on all kinds of illegal ICOs.</p><p>Although Japan is one of the few countries in the world that provides legal protection for digital assets, and the establishment and operation of cryptocurrency exchanges can be completely legal and compliant, due to strict regulation,<b>Japanese exchanges do not have the right to list currency, which makes it more difficult to raise funds and trade local projects, which hinders the development of innovative projects to some extent.</b></p><p>Today's Coinbase, to some extent, has become a sample under the regulatory balance of cryptocurrency in the United States.</p><p>Secondly, as the world's largest economy, the United States provides a broad space for Coinbase. When Wall Street embraces Bitcoin, Coinbase also becomes the \"Bitcoin butler\" of institutions because of its compliance advantages. According to the data of Bituniverse on April 13th, at present, Coinbase platform has 870,000 Bitcoin, far surpassing Binance (215,100) and Huobi (252,300).</p><p><b>Behind the rise of Coinbase is the decline of Bitcoin pricing power in the Eastern world, and the Western world centered on the United States has gained more chips and voice.</b></p><p>Whether it is the business focus or the moat, Coinbase is inseparable from the U.S. regulators and the U.S. market behind it.<b>Coinbase is not the ideal story of decentralization, more of the \"American Dream\" of cryptocurrency.</b></p>","source":"lsy1592805329705","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Coinbase Apocalypse: The Cryptocurrency American Dream Starting with Eleven Page PPT</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCoinbase Apocalypse: The Cryptocurrency American Dream Starting with Eleven Page PPT\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">深潮TechFlow</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-04-13 18:51</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d202e56fe292c12f1ec756eff7095093\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"565\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">A moment in history is approaching when Coinbase will become a milestone in the cryptocurrency world by listing on the US NASDAQ (symbol COIN) on Wednesday (14th).</p><p>Bloomberg news,<b>Coinbase's valuation may be as high as about $100 billion, which is more than the combined market capitalization of the parent company on the Nasdaq and New York Stock Exchange.</b></p><p>Coinbase, founded in 2012, does not have many legends of barbaric growth. If the global cryptocurrency exchange is compared to a classroom, then Coinbase is a typical \"obedient student\": its early grades are average, there are many exchanges with larger trading volume than Coinbase, and there are too many exchanges that are more innovative than Coinbase to mention, but Coinbase is honest and obedient, and it is deeply liked by teachers.</p><p>Finally, it happened that Coinbase came to the center of the stage.</p><p><b>Start with 11-page PPT</b></p><p>On Christmas, 2010, Brian Armstrong accidentally read the Bitcoin White Paper, which opened the door to cryptocurrency. He bought more than 1,000 Bitcoin at the price of $9. When the price in Bitcoin once fell to $2, Armstrong didn't leave the market, but always bought Bitcoin by writing code. At the same time, he perceived the entrepreneurial opportunities. Maybe he could create a Bitcoin company himself?</p><p>Two summers later, Brian co-founded Coinbase with partner Fred Ehrsam, in the form of a wallet.</p><p>The duo envisioned that Coinbase would become a Bitcoin marketplace where people could buy cryptocurrencies. Then, they registered Coinbase in the Y Combinator startup incubator project. At the YC Roadshow Day, Brian Armstrong used 11 pages of PPT to describe Coinbase's ideal and vision.<b>\"Coinbase is to Bitcoin what iTunes is to MP3.\"</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c0e0708ac639513c2410ebd1f0b1f841\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"464\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b17b9ebe53adbaca801f770d01bb7ca4\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"464\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/41bede434eab58fecec80fecdd6b3342\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"464\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f7342cc4cdece884e5f61c86d6676cb7\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"464\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a9b15b37dce81a9a98c9abebf9f3131c\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"464\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ae93cc3c61acfa7f72226dcbfb089420\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"464\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/954b4809a22c5020b4c771f0e55fa799\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"464\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/531e25c0f2ef847d1a8b6120996897b2\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"464\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/37fe7fed51c3899aeeb0cf77acd5b5f3\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"464\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6e161463a850b34c79a7a3488583edb8\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"464\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1c8e3d2c29cceb50fbf98a0680641c21\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"464\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">In 2017, when Brian Armstrong reviewed this eleven-page Pitch Deck, he was quite impressed and wrote this passage:</p><p><b>Great things start from humble beginnings.</b></p><p>Most of what you see around you starts out as nothing more than a simple idea and a crude prototype, and it takes five to 10 years to turn it into an \"overnight success\", with dozens of setbacks and route corrections along the way.</p><p><b>So, pick one thing you're passionate about and get started.</b></p><p><b>Slow and fast compliance</b></p><p>Duan Yongping once said, \"Slow is fast\".</p><p>Coinbase is not a case of rapid rise and savage growth. On the contrary, although it was established earlier, its trading volume was far surpassed by its descendants.</p><p>If the global cryptocurrency exchange is compared to a classroom, then Coinbase is the typical \"good student\":<b>Although his grades are average, he is honest and obedient, and is deeply liked by teachers.</b></p><p>At the crossroads of development speed and compliance, Coinbase chose compliance.</p><p>Coinbase has been investing heavily in obtaining regulatory licenses. It has Money Transmitter licenses in 50 states in the United States. At the same time, it has become one of the few exchanges with BitLicense specially issued by New York State for digital currency exchanges. It has obtained licenses to legally trade fiat currencies in 33 countries and opened up payment channels.</p><p>In addition to the exchange business, Coinbase has also applied for and acquired licenses on a large scale in the upstream and downstream of the industrial chain. At present, Coinbase has a series of financial licenses such as payment, savings, loans, financial derivatives trading, alternative asset trading, brokerage trading and investment consulting.</p><p>Previously, according to internal employees, the number of Coinbase's compliance team was once close to 1/3 of the company's, occupying a lot of the company's resources, which also led to Coinbase's high handling fees and insufficient investment in technology, operation and user experience.</p><p>Because of compliance, Coinbase is unable to offer a large number of currency trades, nor does it offer derivative trading such as contracts, resulting in it lagging far behind similar exchanges outside the United States in terms of trading volume.</p><p>In Coinbase's compliance process, Brian Brooks, the former chief legal officer, played a pivotal role, cooperating with various regulatory agencies and leading the construction of the Crypto Rating Council (CRC), an industry alliance.</p><p>In 2020, Brian Brooks was hired as supervisor<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>Head of the U.S. Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC).</p><p>Coinbase's compliance-focused business strategy did not allow it to achieve exponential growth in trading volume and finance in the short term. However, due to its compliance operation and regulatory recognition, it is far ahead of other similar companies in accessing the mainstream financial field, laying a solid foundation for its medium-and long-term development in the US market.</p><p>After completing its compliant infrastructure, delayed-gratifying Coinbase is finally seeing a harvest spring in 2021.</p><p>Coinbase has been \"applauded but not popular\" for a long time. It only made its first profit in 2017, with a net loss of $30 million in 2019. It wasn't until the bull market came in 2020 that it turned losses into profits, with a net profit of $322 million.</p><p>In the first quarter of 2021, Coinbase's performance exploded in an all-round way, achieving revenue of US$1.8 billion, a surge of 844% compared with the same period last year, and a net profit of nearly US$800 million.</p><p>This is all inseparable from Coinbase's early compliance building.</p><p><b>Building the Future</b></p><p>The slowness and stability of Coinbase also stems from Brian Armstrong's long-term planning.<b>Exchange business is the means, not the ultimate goal and destination of Coinbase.</b></p><p>In 2016, Brian Armstrong predicted the development of blockchain in the next few years according to the historical development law of the Internet. He divided his blockchain world future into four main stages, and according to what Coinbase can do at each stage, he formulated the development blueprint of Coinbase in the next ten years.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a8b4e8f8597b30239154d9904b4ec5b9\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"173\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>Phase 1 (Agreement Phase): Development Agreement (serving 1 million people)</b></p><p>At this stage, new protocols (Bitcoin, Ethereum, etc) were created and people began to improve these protocols.</p><p>The open source community will develop around each protocol, and in some cases, these protocols will be sponsored and helped by businesses. The race for protocols has begun, and it remains to be seen which protocol can be extended and attract application developers.</p><p>Coinbase will not be involved in this stage of development and will only keep working closely with some good players.</p><p><b>Phase 2 (infrastructure): Establishment of a digital currency exchange (serving 10 million people)</b></p><p>In Brain Armstrong's view, investment or speculation is an indispensable initialization acceleration mechanism for the establishment of future blockchain payment network, so exchange business is indispensable.</p><p>Initially just a wallet, Coinbase later established the GDAX exchange for institutional and professional investors, which is now known as Coinbase Pro, which constitutes the core business of Coinbase, and Coinbase will use the revenue from this phase to invest in the next phase of the plan, while continuing to expand these businesses to more countries.</p><p><b>Phase 3 (User Portal): Establishing a portal for digital currency applications (serving 100 million people)</b></p><p>When consumers start using blockchain applications (DApps), what they need is a simple user interface and portal. The portal in the Internet world is HTML and Web browser, which is built on the TCP/IP protocol.</p><p>In the blockchain world, Coinbase thinks it will be an undeveloped WEB browser equivalent, and its bottom layer may be a wallet completely controlled by users.</p><p>This will lower the threshold for ordinary people to use it and make it less difficult to develop blockchain applications.</p><p>Coinbase will participate in this phase by establishing or investing in relevant teams.</p><p><b>Phase 4 (Decentralized Application): Creating an Open Financial System Application (serving 1 billion people)</b></p><p>Brian Armstrong believes that the existing traditional financial system will be rebuilt into an open network that can be accessed by users around the world. The applications needed in the future include:</p><p>Loans (mortgages, small business loans, micro-loans, etc.) Venture capital (seed investments, traditional VCs, risky debt, etc.) Investments (stocks, index funds, savings accounts, etc.) Identity and reputation (ID cards, identity authentication, credit scores, etc.) Remittances (cross-border remittances) Merchant processing (retail, online orders) Coinbase will participate in this stage by building teams, acquiring and investing in various companies, and Coinbase will also build developer tools and cooperate with regulators to draft regulatory schemes suitable for this industry.</p><p>To sum up, in Brian Armstrong's plan, the exchange is only the first step in building an ecosystem, and the money earned by the exchange will be continuously used to participate in the next stage of infrastructure construction and investment, so as to finally occupy a place in the open financial system for a billion people.</p><p>In 2016, Brian Armstrong thought they were at the end of Phase 2, but still in the early stages of blockchain.</p><p>Since then, Coinbase has firmly implemented this plan, upgraded Gdax transactions to Coinbase Pro, developed institutional users, and continued to broaden its boundaries through acquisitions:</p><p>Developed the Wallet app Toshi, later renamed Coinbase Wallet; Acquisition of Ethereum dApp browser and wallet Cipher Browse; Acquisition of Ethereum P2P trading platform Paradex; Acquisition of Xapo's custody business; Acquired Tagomi, a master broker platform for digital asset trading; Acquisition of crypto trading infrastructure provider Routefire; Acquisition of blockchain infrastructure provider Bison Trails; Acquisition of cryptocurrency mission site Earn.com... Acquisition of three licensed financial services companies, securities dealer Keystone Capital, Venovate Marketlpace and Digital Wealth LLC.... Going public is not the end point and purpose of Coinbase. At present, everything Coinbase has done is still preparing for the fourth stage, building an open financial system of Coinbase ecosystem.</p><p><b>The 'American Dream' of Cryptocurrency</b></p><p>Coinbase's success is hard to replicate.</p><p>Lei Jun often said that pigs can fly when standing on the wind. There are many pigs who fly when standing on the wind of cryptocurrency, but there is only one Coinbase. Because it is in the United States, why do China, Japan and South Korea not have \"Coinbase\"?</p><p><b>The United States still holds monetary hegemony, is the center of global capital markets, and gradually gains the pricing power of Bitcoin.</b></p><p>In terms of supervision, China, the United States and Japan have different supervision ideas.</p><p>After the September 4th, \"heavy chain suppression of currency\" has become the main theme of China's blockchain world.</p><p>China defines blockchain as a<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/III\">Information Services</a>Technology, the main body of supervision is the Central Cyberspace Administration, while the financial risks that blockchain and cryptocurrency may bring are supervised by the People's Bank of China.</p><p>The regulatory agencies in the United States mainly include the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).</p><p>For token issuance and exchange, the United States does not adopt a one-size-fits-all approach, but incorporates practical tokens and securities tokens into the corresponding regulatory systems respectively. The issuance of securities attribute tokens needs to be registered in accordance with the securities law, and the exchange operation needs to obtain a license.</p><p>At the same time, the US SEC has frequently taken action to crack down on all kinds of illegal ICOs.</p><p>Although Japan is one of the few countries in the world that provides legal protection for digital assets, and the establishment and operation of cryptocurrency exchanges can be completely legal and compliant, due to strict regulation,<b>Japanese exchanges do not have the right to list currency, which makes it more difficult to raise funds and trade local projects, which hinders the development of innovative projects to some extent.</b></p><p>Today's Coinbase, to some extent, has become a sample under the regulatory balance of cryptocurrency in the United States.</p><p>Secondly, as the world's largest economy, the United States provides a broad space for Coinbase. When Wall Street embraces Bitcoin, Coinbase also becomes the \"Bitcoin butler\" of institutions because of its compliance advantages. According to the data of Bituniverse on April 13th, at present, Coinbase platform has 870,000 Bitcoin, far surpassing Binance (215,100) and Huobi (252,300).</p><p><b>Behind the rise of Coinbase is the decline of Bitcoin pricing power in the Eastern world, and the Western world centered on the United States has gained more chips and voice.</b></p><p>Whether it is the business focus or the moat, Coinbase is inseparable from the U.S. regulators and the U.S. market behind it.<b>Coinbase is not the ideal story of decentralization, more of the \"American Dream\" of cryptocurrency.</b></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/vx_QxhcTbgRnlQEfm16yzA\">深潮TechFlow</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d202e56fe292c12f1ec756eff7095093","relate_stocks":{"COIN":"Coinbase Global, Inc."},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/vx_QxhcTbgRnlQEfm16yzA","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2127015413","content_text":"历史一刻即将来临，Coinbase将于周三（14日）在美国纳斯达克上市（代码COIN），成为加密货币世界的里程碑。彭博社消息，Coinbase估值或高达约1000亿美元，这一数值超过纳斯达克交易所加纽约证券交易所母公司的市值总和。成立于2012年的Coinbase并没有太多野蛮生长的传奇色彩，如果把全球加密货币交易所比作一间教室，那么Coinbase就是典型的“听话学生”：前期成绩一般，比Coinbase交易量大的交易所很多，比Coinbase创新的交易所不胜枚举，但Coinbase老实听话，深受老师的喜欢。最后，偏偏是Coinbase来到了舞台中央。从11页PPT开始2010年圣诞节，Brian Armstrong偶然间阅读了比特币白皮书，从此打开了加密货币的大门，他以9美元的价格购买了1000多枚比特币，在比特币价格一度跌到2美元的时候，Armstrong并没有离场，而是一直靠编写代码来购买比特币，与此同时，他觉察到了其中的创业机会，也许自己可以创建一个比特币公司？2年后的夏天，Brian与与合作伙伴Fred Ehrsam共同创建了Coinbase，以钱包的形式。两人设想，Coinbase将成为一个比特币市场，人们可以在这里购买加密货币。随后，他们将Coinbase登记入了Y Combinator创业孵化器项目，在 YC 路演日上，Brian Armstrong用了十一页PPT描绘 Coinbase 理想与愿景，“Coinbase之于比特币，就好比 iTunes之于MP3 。”2017年，当Brian Armstrong回顾这十一页Pitch Deck时，颇有感想，写下了这段话：伟大的事物都是从卑微的起点开始的。你身边看到的大多数东西，一开始不过是一个简单的想法和一个粗糙的原型，要把它变成 \"一夜成功\"，需要5到10年的时间，一路上要经历几十次挫折和路线修正。所以，选择一件你热衷的事情，开始吧。合规的慢与快段永平曾言，“慢就是快”。Coinbase并不是快速崛起，野蛮生长的案例，相反，尽管它成立较早，但是交易量远被它的后辈们超越。如果把全球加密货币交易所比作一间教室，那么Coinbase就是典型的“好学生”：尽管成绩一般，但是老实听话，深受老师的喜欢。在发展速度与合规的十字路口，Coinbase选择了合规。Coinbase一直在获得监管牌照方面不惜投入重金，拥有美国50个州的转账交易牌照（Money Transmitter License），同时成为为数不多的、拥有纽约州专门为数字货币交易所颁发的BitLicense的交易所，在33个国家取得合法交易法币的许可并打通支付渠道。除了交易所业务，Coinbase在产业链上下游也大规模申请和收购牌照， 目前Coinbase拥有支付、储蓄、贷款、金融衍生品交易、另类资产交易、券商交易和投资顾问等一系列金融牌照。此前据内部员工透露，Coinbase合规团队人数一度接近公司的1/3，占据公司大量资源，这也导致Coinbase手续费高昂，在技术、运营和用户体验上投入不足。因为合规，Coinbase无法提供大量币种交易，也没有提供合约这样的衍生品交易，导致其在交易量方面远远落后于美国境外的同类交易所。在Coinbase的合规进程中，前任首席法务官Brian Brooks发挥了举足轻重的作用，配合各个监管机构，牵头建设了行业联盟性质的加密数字货币评级委员会（Crypto Rating Council，CRC）。2020年，Brian Brooks被聘请担任为监管美国银行业的美国货币监理局（OCC）负责人。Coinbase专注合规的经营战略并没有让它在短期内实现交易量以及财务方面的指数级增长，但是由于它的合规经营，并且受到监管的认可，它在接入主流金融领域方面遥遥领先于其它同类公司，奠定了它在美国市场中长期发展的坚实基础。在完成合规的基础建设之后，延迟满足的Coinbase终于在2021年迎来收获的春天。Coinbase长期“叫好不叫座”，2017年才实现首次盈利，2019年净亏损3000万美元，直到2020年牛市来临，扭亏为盈，净利润3.22亿美元。2021一季度，Coinbase业绩全面爆发，实现营收18亿美元，较去年同期暴增844%，净利润接近8亿美元。这一切都离不开Coinbase早期的合规建设。建设未来Coinbase的慢与稳，也源于Brian Armstrong的长期规划，交易所业务是手段，而不是Coinbase的最终目的与归宿。2016年，Brian Armstrong 根据互联网的历史发展规律，预测了区块链未来几年的发展，他将其区块链世界未来划分为四个主要的阶段，并根据每个阶段 Coinbase能做的事情，制定了 Coinbase未来十年的发展蓝图。第一阶段（协议阶段）：开发协议（服务100万人）在这个阶段，新的协议（比特币、以太坊等）被创造了出来，人们开始改进这些协议。开源社区会围绕着每一个协议进行开发，在某些情况下，这些协议会得到企业的赞助和帮助。协议的竞赛已开始上演，究竟哪个协议可以得到扩展，并吸引应用开发者，仍有待于观察。Coinbase 不会参与这个阶段的开发，只会和一些优秀的玩家保持紧密合作。第二阶段（基础设施）：建立数字货币交易所（服务1000万人）在Brain Armstrong看来，投资或者说投机对于未来区块链的支付网络建立是不可或缺的初始化加速机制，因此交易所业务不可或缺。最初，Coinbase只是钱包，后来为机构和职业投资者建立了GDAX交易所，也就是如今的Coinbase Pro，这构成了Coinbase的核心业务，Coinbase 将用这阶段的收入来投资下一阶段计划，同时继续将这些业务扩展到更多的国家。第三阶段（用户入口）：为数字货币应用建立入口（服务1亿人）消费者在开始使用区块链应用（dApp）时，他们需要的是一个简单的用户界面和入口，互联网世界里的入口是HTML与Web浏览器，这是建立在TCP/IP协议之上。在区块链世界里，Coinbase 认为它会是尚未开发出来的WEB浏览器同类产品，其底层可能是一个完全由用户控制的钱包。这将降低普通人使用它的门槛，并且降低区块链应用的开发难度。Coinbase 将通过建立或投资相关的团队来参与这一阶段。第四阶段（去中心化应用）：打造一个开放式金融系统应用（服务10亿人）Brian Armstrong 认为现有的传统金融系统将被重建为一个开放式的网络，可供全球用户访问，未来需要的应用包括：贷款（抵押贷款、小企业贷款、小额贷款等）风险投资（种子投资、传统VC，风险债务等）投资（股票、指数型基金、储蓄账户等）身份与声誉（身份证、身份认证、信用评分等）汇款（跨境汇款）商户处理（零售、网络订单）Coinbase会通过建立团队、收购和投资各种公司的方式来参与这一阶段，并且Coinbase 也将建立开发者工具，并与监管机构合作来起草适合这一行业的监管方案。总结起来，在Brian Armstrong的规划中，交易所只是构建生态的第一步，并持续利用交易所赚的钱去参与下一个阶段的基础设施建设与投资，从而最终在面向十亿人的开放金融系统中占据一席之地。2016年，Brian Armstrong认为他们处于第二阶段的末尾期，但仍处于区块链的早期阶段。此后，Coinbase 坚定地执行了这个计划，把Gdax交易升级成Coinbase Pro，发力机构用户，并持续通过收购，拓宽自己的边界：开发了钱包应用 Toshi，后来改名为 Coinbase Wallet；收购以太坊dApp浏览器和钱包Cipher Browse；收购以太坊P2P交易平台Paradex；收购Xapo的托管业务；收购数字资产交易主经纪商平台Tagomi；收购加密交易基础设施提供商Routefire；收购区块链基础设施提供商Bison Trails；收购加密货币任务网站Earn.com……收购三家持牌金融服务公司，证券交易商 Keystone Capital，Venovate Marketlpace 和 Digital Wealth LLC 。……上市也不是Coinbase的终点和目的，目前Coinbase所做的一切，仍然在为第四个阶段，构建Coinbase生态的开放金融系统做准备。加密货币的“美国梦”Coinbase的成功难以复制。雷军常说，站在风口上，猪都能飞起来，站在加密货币的风口上飞起来的猪有很多，但Coinbase只有一个，因为它在美国，为什么中国、日本、韩国没有“Coinbase”？美国依然掌握了货币霸权，是全球资本市场的中心，并且逐渐得到了比特币的定价权。监管上，中国、美国、日本的监管思路不同。九四之后，“重链抑币”成为中国区块链世界的主旋律。中国将区块链定义为一种信息服务技术，监管主体是中央网信办，而对于区块链以及加密货币可能带来的金融风险，则由中国人民银行进行监管。美国的监管机构主要包括美国证券交易委员会 (SEC)、商品期货交易委员会（CFTC）。对于代币发行和交易所，美国并没有采用一刀切的方式，而是将实用型通证和证券性通证分别纳入相应监管体系，证券属性代币的发行需要依照证券法登记注册，交易所经营则需要获得牌照。与此同时，美国SEC频繁出手，打击各类非法ICO。尽管日本是全球为数不多为数字资产提供法律保障的国家之一，加密货币交易所的设立运营也完全可以合法合规，然而由于监管严苛，日本交易所没有上币权，从而导致本土项目募资和交易的难度变大，一定程度上阻碍了创新项目的发展。如今的Coinbase，一定程度上成为了美国加密货币监管平衡术下的样本。其次，美国作为全球最大的经济体，为Coinbase提供了广阔的空间，当华尔街拥抱比特币，Coinbase也因为其合规优势成为了机构们的“比特币大管家”，据Bituniverse 4月13日数据，目前Coinbase平台拥有87万枚比特币，远超币安（21.51万）和火币（25.23万）。Coinbase的崛起，背后是东方世界比特币定价权的衰落，以美国为中心的西方世界获得更多筹码以及话语权。无论是业务重心还是护城河，Coinbase都离不开身后的美国监管机构以及美国市场，Coinbase并不是去中心化的理想故事，更多是加密货币的“美国梦”。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"COIN":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4277,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}