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2022-09-30
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Epic turmoil in the UK bond market. Why is the biggest "powder keg" pension?
DKTED
2022-09-30
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Experience of the UK Crisis: The Whole Pension Market Almost Destroyed!
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2022-09-09
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Why is the biggest \"powder keg\" pension?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1110631384","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"若养老基金大规模撤出英国国债，英国债市或面临灭顶之灾。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Author: Bu Shuqing</p><p>According to Wall Street News, one of the most important reasons for the Bank of England's intervention in the bond market on Wednesday is that British pension funds are facing large-scale margin calls. Investment banks and fund managers have warned the Bank of England in recent days that the margin call requirement could trigger a crash in the UK bond market, media cited people familiar with the matter.</p><p>The reason why pension funds can have a devastating power on the British bond market is that they hedge their debts with high leverage through debt-driven investment strategies. With the yield of gilt (Treasury Bond issued by the British government) continuing to soar, pension funds with trillion pounds of assets may sell gilt on a large scale to pay huge margin.</p><p>LDI + Highly Leveraged Hedges</p><p>Liability-driven investing (LDI) is the first big thunder laid by pension funds for the UK bond market.</p><p>Most pension funds in the UK have long used liability-driven investments to hedge liabilities (future payments to pension clients), a strategy through which pension funds can match their liabilities with the scheme's assets.</p><p>This can be illustrated in a simple model:</p><p>If a pension fund is required to pay a £1m pension to a client in 2046, the fund can buy gilt bonds that mature that year. If high-quality corporate bonds with higher yields are bought, the fund can use the extra money to invest in the stock market, real estate or other growth assets in addition to the bond purchase. Further,<b>Pension funds can use interest rate swaps or inflation swaps to match long-term liabilities.</b>This means that the pension fund only needs to invest the initial margin for trading, and the change direction of the Treasury Bond yield determines whether the fund pays or harvests the margin. Specifically, when the yield of Treasury Bond rises, the pension fund needs to pay a margin to the counterparty, and instead wins the margin of the counterparty. Therefore, pension funds that hedge through interest rate swaps face some leverage.</p><p>How big is this leverage?</p><p>Of the top 600 pension funds in the UK (with total assets of around £700bn), according to a 2019 survey by the UK's pension regulator,<b>62% of pensions are leveraged through interest rate swaps, which account for 43% of all leveraged investments, and the maximum leverage level allowed is 1x to 7x!</b></p><p>Once yields go up, pension funds will face margin calls and be forced to offer more collateral.</p><p>Indeed, there were media reports as early as July that UK pension funds were facing margin calls. Over the past year, UK Treasury Bond yields have continued to rise, with the UK 30-year Treasury Bond yield soaring from 1.12% in October last year to 3.93% in July this year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a7bfd9ed4efd73df53dfa7fe47cb6c4f\" tg-width=\"991\" tg-height=\"609\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Britain's bond market may face destruction if pension funds withdraw on a large scale</p><p>The huge scale of funds is the second thunder laid by pension funds for the UK bond market.</p><p>While extremely risky, the LDI strategy helped UK pension funds expand rapidly in the days of falling gilt yields. UK assets held by UK pension funds through LDI strategies tripled to £1.5trillion in the 10 years to 2020, according to the Investment Association.</p><p>What concept is this number equivalent to?</p><p>After removing the Treasury Bond held by the Bank of England,<b>Assets held by pension funds account for 40% of the UK's institutional asset management market, two-thirds of the UK's GDP and the size of the entire gilt market.</b></p><p>It is unclear exactly how large the pension fund holds British Treasury Bond, but analysts say it is huge<b>If pension funds withdraw from the British Treasury Bond on a large scale, the British bond market may face a disaster.</b></p><p>Fuse: Britain's most aggressive tax cuts in half a century</p><p>On Friday, the UK announced its most aggressive tax cuts in half a century, which set off a sell-off wave in the UK gilt market, with the UK's 30-year Treasury Bond yield surging 120 basis points in just a few days.</p><p>Treasury Bond yields have soared, and the margin calls facing pension funds have risen.</p><p>Ben Gold, head of investments at pensions advisory firm XPS, estimates that UK pension funds have received at least £1bn of margin calls since the Government unveiled plans for tax cuts. He said about two-thirds of the 400 pension schemes his firm advises on have been affected.</p><p>In order to pay a huge deposit,<b>UK pension funds may have to dump large amounts of gilts and other liquid assets, further weighing on the UK bond market and pushing up Treasury Bond yields, which will cause the margin to be paid to snowball.</b></p><p>In this regard, Kerrin Rosenberg, chief investment officer of Cardano Investment Company, said:</p><p><b>Had the Bank of England not intervened today, gilt yields could have risen from 4.5% in the morning to 7-8%, in which case around 90% of UK pension funds would have run out of collateral and they would have been wiped out!</b>As previously analyzed by Wall Street, in order to prevent the large-scale escape of pension funds from the British Treasury Bond from bringing a fatal blow to the bond market, the Bank of England reversed its long-standing \"non-intervention\" strategy and announced unlimited purchase of British Treasury Bond.</p><p>The Bank of England issued a statement on Wednesday saying it would temporarily buy long-term UK Treasury Bond \"at any scale necessary\" to restore order to the UK bond market. Subsequently, the Bank of England said it would buy traditional British Treasury Bond with a remaining maturity of more than 20 years in the secondary market.</p><p>Affected by this, the British Treasury Bond skyrocketed, and the British 30-year Treasury Bond yield once fell by 100 basis points.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"live_wallstreetcn","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Epic turmoil in the UK bond market. 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Why is the biggest \"powder keg\" pension?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-09-29 23:22</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Author: Bu Shuqing</p><p>According to Wall Street News, one of the most important reasons for the Bank of England's intervention in the bond market on Wednesday is that British pension funds are facing large-scale margin calls. Investment banks and fund managers have warned the Bank of England in recent days that the margin call requirement could trigger a crash in the UK bond market, media cited people familiar with the matter.</p><p>The reason why pension funds can have a devastating power on the British bond market is that they hedge their debts with high leverage through debt-driven investment strategies. With the yield of gilt (Treasury Bond issued by the British government) continuing to soar, pension funds with trillion pounds of assets may sell gilt on a large scale to pay huge margin.</p><p>LDI + Highly Leveraged Hedges</p><p>Liability-driven investing (LDI) is the first big thunder laid by pension funds for the UK bond market.</p><p>Most pension funds in the UK have long used liability-driven investments to hedge liabilities (future payments to pension clients), a strategy through which pension funds can match their liabilities with the scheme's assets.</p><p>This can be illustrated in a simple model:</p><p>If a pension fund is required to pay a £1m pension to a client in 2046, the fund can buy gilt bonds that mature that year. If high-quality corporate bonds with higher yields are bought, the fund can use the extra money to invest in the stock market, real estate or other growth assets in addition to the bond purchase. Further,<b>Pension funds can use interest rate swaps or inflation swaps to match long-term liabilities.</b>This means that the pension fund only needs to invest the initial margin for trading, and the change direction of the Treasury Bond yield determines whether the fund pays or harvests the margin. Specifically, when the yield of Treasury Bond rises, the pension fund needs to pay a margin to the counterparty, and instead wins the margin of the counterparty. Therefore, pension funds that hedge through interest rate swaps face some leverage.</p><p>How big is this leverage?</p><p>Of the top 600 pension funds in the UK (with total assets of around £700bn), according to a 2019 survey by the UK's pension regulator,<b>62% of pensions are leveraged through interest rate swaps, which account for 43% of all leveraged investments, and the maximum leverage level allowed is 1x to 7x!</b></p><p>Once yields go up, pension funds will face margin calls and be forced to offer more collateral.</p><p>Indeed, there were media reports as early as July that UK pension funds were facing margin calls. Over the past year, UK Treasury Bond yields have continued to rise, with the UK 30-year Treasury Bond yield soaring from 1.12% in October last year to 3.93% in July this year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a7bfd9ed4efd73df53dfa7fe47cb6c4f\" tg-width=\"991\" tg-height=\"609\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Britain's bond market may face destruction if pension funds withdraw on a large scale</p><p>The huge scale of funds is the second thunder laid by pension funds for the UK bond market.</p><p>While extremely risky, the LDI strategy helped UK pension funds expand rapidly in the days of falling gilt yields. UK assets held by UK pension funds through LDI strategies tripled to £1.5trillion in the 10 years to 2020, according to the Investment Association.</p><p>What concept is this number equivalent to?</p><p>After removing the Treasury Bond held by the Bank of England,<b>Assets held by pension funds account for 40% of the UK's institutional asset management market, two-thirds of the UK's GDP and the size of the entire gilt market.</b></p><p>It is unclear exactly how large the pension fund holds British Treasury Bond, but analysts say it is huge<b>If pension funds withdraw from the British Treasury Bond on a large scale, the British bond market may face a disaster.</b></p><p>Fuse: Britain's most aggressive tax cuts in half a century</p><p>On Friday, the UK announced its most aggressive tax cuts in half a century, which set off a sell-off wave in the UK gilt market, with the UK's 30-year Treasury Bond yield surging 120 basis points in just a few days.</p><p>Treasury Bond yields have soared, and the margin calls facing pension funds have risen.</p><p>Ben Gold, head of investments at pensions advisory firm XPS, estimates that UK pension funds have received at least £1bn of margin calls since the Government unveiled plans for tax cuts. He said about two-thirds of the 400 pension schemes his firm advises on have been affected.</p><p>In order to pay a huge deposit,<b>UK pension funds may have to dump large amounts of gilts and other liquid assets, further weighing on the UK bond market and pushing up Treasury Bond yields, which will cause the margin to be paid to snowball.</b></p><p>In this regard, Kerrin Rosenberg, chief investment officer of Cardano Investment Company, said:</p><p><b>Had the Bank of England not intervened today, gilt yields could have risen from 4.5% in the morning to 7-8%, in which case around 90% of UK pension funds would have run out of collateral and they would have been wiped out!</b>As previously analyzed by Wall Street, in order to prevent the large-scale escape of pension funds from the British Treasury Bond from bringing a fatal blow to the bond market, the Bank of England reversed its long-standing \"non-intervention\" strategy and announced unlimited purchase of British Treasury Bond.</p><p>The Bank of England issued a statement on Wednesday saying it would temporarily buy long-term UK Treasury Bond \"at any scale necessary\" to restore order to the UK bond market. Subsequently, the Bank of England said it would buy traditional British Treasury Bond with a remaining maturity of more than 20 years in the secondary market.</p><p>Affected by this, the British Treasury Bond skyrocketed, and the British 30-year Treasury Bond yield once fell by 100 basis points.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3671538\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/741a7a9152b273ef524b8d371b44958e","relate_stocks":{"EWU":"英国ETF-iShares MSCI"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3671538","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/cc96873d3d23ee6ac10685520df9c100","article_id":"1110631384","content_text":"作者：卜淑情据华尔街见闻此前提及，英国央行周三出手干预债市最重要的一个原因在于英国养老基金面临大规模追加保证金的要求。媒体援引知情人士透露，投资银行和基金经理最近几天警告英国央行，追加保证金的要求可能引发英国债市崩盘。养老基金之所以能对英国债市产生摧枯拉朽的破坏力，是因为它通过负债驱动型投资策略对其债务进行了高杠杆对冲，在金边债券（英国政府发行的国债）收益率持续飙升的情况下，为支付巨额保证金，持有万亿英镑资产的养老基金可能会大规模抛售金边债券。LDI+高杠杆对冲负债驱动型投资（LDI）是养老基金为英国债市埋下的第一颗大雷。长期以来，英国多数养老基金一直采用负债驱动型投资来对冲负债（未来支付给养老金客户的款项），通过该策略，养老基金可以将其负债与计划的资产相匹配。这可以通过一个简单的模型中说明：如果养老基金需要在2046年向客户支付100万英镑的养老金，那么基金可以购买于该年到期的金边债券。如果买到优质的收益率更高的企业债券，基金可以在购买债券之余使用额外的资金投资股市、房地产或其他成长型资产。更进一步，养老基金可以使用利率掉期或通胀掉期来匹配长期负债。这就意味着，养老基金只需要投入初始保证金进行交易，而国债收益率变动方向决定该基金是缴纳还是收获保证金。具体来看，在国债收益率上行时，养老基金需要向交易对手缴纳保证金，相反则赢得交易对手的保证金。因此，通过利率掉期进行对冲的养老基金面临一定的杠杆。这个杠杆有多大？根据英国养老金监管机构2019年进行的调查，在英国前600家养老基金（总资产约为7000亿英镑）中，有62%的养老金通过利率掉期进行杠杆投资，利率掉期投资规模占所有杠杆投资的43%，允许的最大杠杆水平为1倍至7倍！一旦收益率上行，养老基金将面临追加保证金的要求，被迫提供更多抵押品。实际上，早在7月就有媒体报道，英国养老基金面临追加保证金通知。在过去一年中，英国国债收益率持续上升，其中英国30年期国债收益率从去年10月的1.12%飙升至今年七月的3.93%。若养老基金大规模撤出，英国债市或面临灭顶之灾庞大的资金规模是养老基金为英国债市埋下的第二颗雷。虽然风险极高，LDI策略在金边债券收益率下降的日子里仍帮助英国养老基金迅速扩张。投资协会（Investment Association）的数据显示，在截至2020年的10年中，英国养老基金通过LDI策略持有的英国资产增加了两倍，达到1.5万亿英镑。这一数字相当于什么概念？除去英格兰银行持有的国债后，养老基金持有的资产占英国机构资产管理市场的40%，占英国GDP的三分之二以及整个金边债券市场的规模。目前尚不清楚养老基金到底持有多大规模的英国国债，但分析认为这一规模十分巨大，如果养老基金大规模撤出英国国债，英国债市或面临灭顶之灾。导火索：英国半世纪以来最激进的减税计划上周五，英国宣布了半个世纪以来最激进的减税计划，该计划在英国金边债券市场掀起了抛售浪潮，英国30年期国债收益率在短短几天内飙升了120个基点。国债收益率飙升，养老基金面临的追加保证金水涨船高。养老金咨询公司XPS投资主管Ben Gold估计，自英国政府公布减税计划以来，英国养老基金已收到至少10亿英镑的追加保证金通知。他表示，在其公司提供咨询服务的400个养老金计划中，大约有三分之二受到了影响。为支付巨额保证金，英国养老基金可能不得不抛售大量金边债券和其他流动资产，进一步使英国债市承压，推高国债收益率，这将导致需缴纳的保证金像滚雪球一样越来越大。对此，卡尔达诺投资公司首席投资官Kerrin Rosenberg表示：如果英国央行今天没有干预，金边债券收益率可能会从早上的4.5%上升到7-8%，在这种情况下，大约90%的英国养老基金将用完抵押品，他们会被消灭！正如华尔街见闻此前分析，为防止养老基金大规模出逃英国国债给债市带来致命打击，英国央行扭转了长期以来的“不干预”策略，并宣布无限量购买英国国债。英国央行周三发布声明称，将“以任何必要的规模”临时购买英国长期国债，以恢复英国债券市场秩序。随后，英国央行表示将在二级市场购买剩余期限超过20年的传统英国国债。受此影响，英国国债暴涨，英国30年期国债收益率一度下行100个基点。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"EWU":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1829,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":668841219,"gmtCreate":1664549891736,"gmtModify":1676537476026,"author":{"id":"3560270530016088","authorId":"3560270530016088","name":"DKTED","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3560270530016088","authorIdStr":"3560270530016088"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"1","listText":"1","text":"1","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/668841219","repostId":"1146232184","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1146232184","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1664542806,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1146232184?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-09-30 21:00","market":"uk","language":"zh","title":"Experience of the UK Crisis: The Whole Pension Market Almost Destroyed!","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1146232184","media":"三思期权","summary":"巨亏本身不是那么可怕，最可怕的是短期连续的巨亏。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Having experienced this week's storm, this short essay will commemorate it in the form of notes. This week was really tired. In addition to being tired, I also regretted that there was no foresight in such a big event, so I missed this black swan transaction.</p><p>What is a metaphor for what happened this week? I feel closest to March 2020. The British interest rate and pound market completely collapsed, the whole British pension market almost fell on the street, and the LDI industry in pension collapsed overnight. If the whole pension market collapses, it won't be March, it will be 2008. Fortunately, the central bank came out to bail out the market. ..</p><p>These two days are really too tired, don't want to code too many words. For roughly what is happening in the market, you can see Degg_GlobalMacroFin for basic knowledge. In this article, I will focus on my front-line experience.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3631a2312876324acb9456bbd80c4a2d\" tg-width=\"587\" tg-height=\"114\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><ul><li>Remember these two men, almost on their own, destroyed the huge pension market. Of course, they can't be blamed for the leverage of LDI as an industry. But the introduction of unchecked tax cuts without experience was the trigger that almost killed the pension market suddenly.</p><p></li></ul><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70f8e2c3c00e5ca5bb643a16e7534a83\" tg-width=\"658\" tg-height=\"407\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><ul><li>The simplest explanation is that Silly X's tax cuts caused interest rates to skyrocket. The sharp surge in Interest rates has led to huge short-term losses in Interest rate swaps used by LDI funds, which many pensions use to hedge against Interest rates and inflation risks. The huge loss itself is not so terrible. The most terrible thing is the short-term continuous huge loss, which leads to the quick use of margin.</p><p></li></ul><ul><li>From the end of August to the end of September, the UK's 30-year interest rate skyrocketed by 230 basis points. How much does the pace of this skyrocketing impact these LDI funds holding interest rate swaps? We can make a preliminary estimate.</p><p></li></ul><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3dd447ad5d4d8ebe9b9acb9cc8d502b1\" tg-width=\"683\" tg-height=\"419\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><ul><li>For a pension with a scale of 1 billion, the DV01 of interest rate swap (profit and loss arising from interest rate swap caused by one basis point interest rate change) in the LDI fund held is about 2 million. That is to say, in the past two months, because the 30-year interest rate has changed by 230 basis points. The loss arising from interest rate swap is 230* 2m =460m. That is to say, in the past 2 months, the loss arising from interest rate swap is nearly half of the assets of this pension!!!</p><p></li></ul><ul><li>This loss is not really a loss. Because these interest rate swaps are used to hedge the pension liability side, the interest rate swaps lose money, and the value of the liability side also declines. Theoretically, this is a long-short hedge transaction that will not incur much loss.</p><p></li></ul><ul><li>But, but, but, in the last example, in such a short time, it lost 400 million yuan. In order to pay the margin, those LDI funds first sold the most liquid British Treasury Bond in their hands to raise funds to make up the margin.</p><p></li></ul><ul><li>Friends who know a little about OTC trading will ask, why don't these funds take these British Treasury Bond as margin? Because many over-the-counter transactions can directly use Treasury Bond as margin. This brings to another topic, that is, the interest rate swap market has undergone a big change in the past 10 years. Most interest rate swaps have gone from mere over-the-counter trading to centrally cleared over-the-counter trading. The clearing house is LCH, and now it can only use cash as margin.</p><p></li></ul><ul><li>Well, here comes the point, and this is the most important step in the death spiral. The Treasury Bond interest rate in the UK is actually similar to the interest rate swapped by the British interest rate. Because the interest rate swap loses money, the fund manager has to sell Treasury Bond to make up the margin. A lot of selling of Treasury Bond led to rising interest rates in Treasury Bond, while rising interest rates in Treasury Bond led to rising interest rates in interest rate swaps, and rising interest rate swaps led to fund managers selling more Treasury Bond margin...</p><p></li></ul><ul><li>The financial market is not afraid of rising or falling. When the price is low, people will naturally buy it, but the market is most afraid of this death spiral.</p><p></li></ul><ul><li>How big is this pension market? According to PPF estimates, at the end of August, pension assets totalled about £1.5 trillion. That is to say, in the past two months, the initial estimate of the margin caused by the loss of the LDI strategy of the whole pension is 690 billion. The deposit paid by my friend's LDI desk last Friday was 1.2 billion! Yes, a day, a desk 1.2 billion!</p><p></li></ul><ul><li>In the process of selling off, Treasury Bond sold out and only sold other assets. The first is the stock with good liquidity. This leads to the stock falling, and it falls indiscriminately. Because in this process, the pension can only be sold with closed eyes due to the requirement of the speed of making up the deposit (generally T +0).</p><p></li></ul><ul><li>When the stock falls, it falls, and when it is cheap, people will naturally buy it. But another fatal point of the whole link is that these pensions have greatly increased their allocation of illiquid assets, such as real estate and private equity funds, in the past 10 years. These are not what you can redeem if you want. This creates a huge problem, liquidity mismatch!</p><p></li></ul><ul><li>I can't sell it. I'm sorry I can't pay the margin. Those interest rate swaps will explode. Investment bank trading desks must sell these interest rate swap positions in the market. This causes the interest rate of interest rate swaps to continue to rise! Thus dragging down other pensions with good liquidity.</p><p></li></ul><ul><li>At that time, the whole interest rate swap market was paralyzed, and most market makers had left the market. The bid-ask spread on the previous one-year UK interest rate swap was only 0.1-0.2 bps, but at that time it had risen to 9-10bps!</p><p></li></ul><ul><li>After the death spiral, the only thing that can be done is wait for the Bank of England to bail out the market. Fortunately, the central bank made a decisive move and sacrificed QE to suppress the rising momentum of interest rates in Treasury Bond. The death spiral is broken. Pull a lot of pensions and those LDI funds back from the brink of death.</p><p></li></ul><ul><li>But not all saw the dawn. Several large British asset management LDI funds exploded. Just look at their share price.... I won't release their names, just leave some ethics.</p><p></li></ul><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e4b774b4e7003f42a53ee0d06289797a\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"793\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><ul><li>The worst are the pensions that fell before dawn, and the holders who live on them.</p><p></li></ul><ul><li>If the bailout is two days later, the whole pension industry will be gg.</p><p></li></ul><ul><li>With this huge earthquake, even the surviving funds in LDI industry are difficult to survive. The biggest shortcomings of the business model of this industry have been exposed. And without leverage, this industry can't survive. Let's just say that the industry is likely to disappear in the near future.</p><p></li></ul><ul><li>Breaking the death spiral, the 50-year UK Treasury Bond has risen by 40% in one day! Who said Treasury Bond rose slowly?</p><p></li></ul><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/499bde85b23a6e2bf8d80bc692321a91\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"516\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p></body></html></p>","source":"lsy1607924588218","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Experience of the UK Crisis: The Whole Pension Market Almost Destroyed!</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nExperience of the UK Crisis: The Whole Pension Market Almost Destroyed!\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">三思期权</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-09-30 21:00</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Having experienced this week's storm, this short essay will commemorate it in the form of notes. This week was really tired. In addition to being tired, I also regretted that there was no foresight in such a big event, so I missed this black swan transaction.</p><p>What is a metaphor for what happened this week? I feel closest to March 2020. The British interest rate and pound market completely collapsed, the whole British pension market almost fell on the street, and the LDI industry in pension collapsed overnight. If the whole pension market collapses, it won't be March, it will be 2008. Fortunately, the central bank came out to bail out the market. ..</p><p>These two days are really too tired, don't want to code too many words. For roughly what is happening in the market, you can see Degg_GlobalMacroFin for basic knowledge. In this article, I will focus on my front-line experience.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3631a2312876324acb9456bbd80c4a2d\" tg-width=\"587\" tg-height=\"114\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><ul><li>Remember these two men, almost on their own, destroyed the huge pension market. Of course, they can't be blamed for the leverage of LDI as an industry. But the introduction of unchecked tax cuts without experience was the trigger that almost killed the pension market suddenly.</p><p></li></ul><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70f8e2c3c00e5ca5bb643a16e7534a83\" tg-width=\"658\" tg-height=\"407\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><ul><li>The simplest explanation is that Silly X's tax cuts caused interest rates to skyrocket. The sharp surge in Interest rates has led to huge short-term losses in Interest rate swaps used by LDI funds, which many pensions use to hedge against Interest rates and inflation risks. The huge loss itself is not so terrible. The most terrible thing is the short-term continuous huge loss, which leads to the quick use of margin.</p><p></li></ul><ul><li>From the end of August to the end of September, the UK's 30-year interest rate skyrocketed by 230 basis points. How much does the pace of this skyrocketing impact these LDI funds holding interest rate swaps? We can make a preliminary estimate.</p><p></li></ul><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3dd447ad5d4d8ebe9b9acb9cc8d502b1\" tg-width=\"683\" tg-height=\"419\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><ul><li>For a pension with a scale of 1 billion, the DV01 of interest rate swap (profit and loss arising from interest rate swap caused by one basis point interest rate change) in the LDI fund held is about 2 million. That is to say, in the past two months, because the 30-year interest rate has changed by 230 basis points. The loss arising from interest rate swap is 230* 2m =460m. That is to say, in the past 2 months, the loss arising from interest rate swap is nearly half of the assets of this pension!!!</p><p></li></ul><ul><li>This loss is not really a loss. Because these interest rate swaps are used to hedge the pension liability side, the interest rate swaps lose money, and the value of the liability side also declines. Theoretically, this is a long-short hedge transaction that will not incur much loss.</p><p></li></ul><ul><li>But, but, but, in the last example, in such a short time, it lost 400 million yuan. In order to pay the margin, those LDI funds first sold the most liquid British Treasury Bond in their hands to raise funds to make up the margin.</p><p></li></ul><ul><li>Friends who know a little about OTC trading will ask, why don't these funds take these British Treasury Bond as margin? Because many over-the-counter transactions can directly use Treasury Bond as margin. This brings to another topic, that is, the interest rate swap market has undergone a big change in the past 10 years. Most interest rate swaps have gone from mere over-the-counter trading to centrally cleared over-the-counter trading. The clearing house is LCH, and now it can only use cash as margin.</p><p></li></ul><ul><li>Well, here comes the point, and this is the most important step in the death spiral. The Treasury Bond interest rate in the UK is actually similar to the interest rate swapped by the British interest rate. Because the interest rate swap loses money, the fund manager has to sell Treasury Bond to make up the margin. A lot of selling of Treasury Bond led to rising interest rates in Treasury Bond, while rising interest rates in Treasury Bond led to rising interest rates in interest rate swaps, and rising interest rate swaps led to fund managers selling more Treasury Bond margin...</p><p></li></ul><ul><li>The financial market is not afraid of rising or falling. When the price is low, people will naturally buy it, but the market is most afraid of this death spiral.</p><p></li></ul><ul><li>How big is this pension market? According to PPF estimates, at the end of August, pension assets totalled about £1.5 trillion. That is to say, in the past two months, the initial estimate of the margin caused by the loss of the LDI strategy of the whole pension is 690 billion. The deposit paid by my friend's LDI desk last Friday was 1.2 billion! Yes, a day, a desk 1.2 billion!</p><p></li></ul><ul><li>In the process of selling off, Treasury Bond sold out and only sold other assets. The first is the stock with good liquidity. This leads to the stock falling, and it falls indiscriminately. Because in this process, the pension can only be sold with closed eyes due to the requirement of the speed of making up the deposit (generally T +0).</p><p></li></ul><ul><li>When the stock falls, it falls, and when it is cheap, people will naturally buy it. But another fatal point of the whole link is that these pensions have greatly increased their allocation of illiquid assets, such as real estate and private equity funds, in the past 10 years. These are not what you can redeem if you want. This creates a huge problem, liquidity mismatch!</p><p></li></ul><ul><li>I can't sell it. I'm sorry I can't pay the margin. Those interest rate swaps will explode. Investment bank trading desks must sell these interest rate swap positions in the market. This causes the interest rate of interest rate swaps to continue to rise! Thus dragging down other pensions with good liquidity.</p><p></li></ul><ul><li>At that time, the whole interest rate swap market was paralyzed, and most market makers had left the market. The bid-ask spread on the previous one-year UK interest rate swap was only 0.1-0.2 bps, but at that time it had risen to 9-10bps!</p><p></li></ul><ul><li>After the death spiral, the only thing that can be done is wait for the Bank of England to bail out the market. Fortunately, the central bank made a decisive move and sacrificed QE to suppress the rising momentum of interest rates in Treasury Bond. The death spiral is broken. Pull a lot of pensions and those LDI funds back from the brink of death.</p><p></li></ul><ul><li>But not all saw the dawn. Several large British asset management LDI funds exploded. Just look at their share price.... I won't release their names, just leave some ethics.</p><p></li></ul><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e4b774b4e7003f42a53ee0d06289797a\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"793\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><ul><li>The worst are the pensions that fell before dawn, and the holders who live on them.</p><p></li></ul><ul><li>If the bailout is two days later, the whole pension industry will be gg.</p><p></li></ul><ul><li>With this huge earthquake, even the surviving funds in LDI industry are difficult to survive. The biggest shortcomings of the business model of this industry have been exposed. And without leverage, this industry can't survive. Let's just say that the industry is likely to disappear in the near future.</p><p></li></ul><ul><li>Breaking the death spiral, the 50-year UK Treasury Bond has risen by 40% in one day! Who said Treasury Bond rose slowly?</p><p></li></ul><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/499bde85b23a6e2bf8d80bc692321a91\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"516\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/kMwPDK6F78YABLQIBpUexA\">三思期权</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d28e326edc19611f4a02f9a0ebb66bf9","relate_stocks":{"EWU":"英国ETF-iShares MSCI"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/kMwPDK6F78YABLQIBpUexA","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1146232184","content_text":"亲历了这周的风暴，这篇小短文就以手记的形式纪念一下。这周实在累的不行了，心累之余还有点遗憾，这么大的事件，竟然没有先知先觉，也就错过了这次的黑天鹅交易。怎么比喻这周发生的事情呢？我感觉最接近2020年三月。英国利率以及英镑市场完全垮掉，英国整个养老金市场差点扑街，而养老金里的LDI行业一夜之间就垮了。要是整个养老金市场垮了，就不是3月份了，那就是08年。好在央行出来救市了。。。这两天实在太心累，不想码太多字。市场上大概发生了什么，基础知识可以看看Degg_GlobalMacroFin这篇。这篇里我就重点讲讲我的一线经历。记住这俩人，几乎凭借了一己之力把巨大的养老金市场毁灭。当然，LDI这个行业的杠杆不能怪他们。 但是没有经验的情况下推出毫无节制的减税政策，是差点让养老金市场突然死亡的导火索。最简单的解释就是， 傻X的减税政策导致利率大幅飙升。 利率大幅飙升导致不少养老金用来对冲利率以及通胀风险的LDI基金里使用的利率（Interest rate swap）短期出现巨额亏损。 巨亏本身不是那么可怕，最可怕的是短期连续的巨亏，导致保证金很快就用光了。从8月底到9月底， 英国30年期利率暴涨了230个基点。这个暴涨的速度对这些持有利率互换的LDI基金有多大影响？ 我们可以初略的估算一下。一个规模10亿的养老金，持有的LDI基金里利率互换的DV01 (一个基点利率变动导致利率互换产生的损益） 是大概两百万。也就是说，过去两个月，因为30年期利率变动了230个基点。利率互换产生的损失就是230* 2m = 460m。 也就是说， 过去2个月，利率互换产生的亏损是这个养老金资产的接近一半！！！这个损失，不是真的亏损。因为这些利率互换是拿来对冲养老金负债端的，利率互换亏了，负债端的价值也下降了。理论上这个是个多空对冲交易不会产生什么损失。但是，但是， 但是,在上个例子里，这么短时间里，亏损了4个亿，那些LDI基金为了交保证金，首先卖出手中流动性最好的英国国债来筹集资金补保证金。懂一点场外交易的朋友会问，为啥这些基金不拿这些英国国债当保证金？ 因为不少场外交易是可以直接用国债当保证金的。 这就要牵扯到另一个话题，就是过去10年里利率互换市场经历了一场大变革。多数利率互换已经从单纯的场外交易变成了中央清算的场外交易。清算所是LCH,现在只能用现金做保证金。那么好了，重点来了， 这也就是死亡螺旋最重要的一步。英国国债利率，和英国利率互换的利率其实是差不多的东西。 因为利率互换亏钱了，基金经理要卖国债补保证金。 大量的抛售国债，导致国债利率上升， 而国债利率上升导致利率互换的利率上升，利率互换上升导致基金经理要卖更多的国债补保证金。。。。金融市场不怕涨，不怕跌，价格低了自然有人买，但是市场最怕这种死亡螺旋。这个养老金市场有多大呢？ 根据PPF的估计，8月底，养老金资产一共大约一共1.5万亿英镑。也就是说，过去两个月，整个养老金的LDI策略亏损导致的保证金的初略估算在6900亿 。 我朋友的LDI desk在上周五一天补交的保证金就是12个亿！对， 一天，一个desk 12亿！在抛售的过程中， 国债卖完了， 只有卖其他资产。 首先就是流动性好的股票。 这就导致股票也跟着跌，而且是无差别的跌。因为这个过程中，养老金由于补保证金的速度有要求(一般是T+0），所以只能闭着眼卖。股票跌就跌了，便宜了自然有人买。 但整个环节另一个要命的点是， 这些养老金过去10年里大幅度增加配置了没有流动性的资产， 比如地产，比如私募股权基金。 这些不是你想赎回就赎回的。 这就产生了一个巨大的问题，流动性错配！卖不了，抱歉交不上保证金那些利率互换的仓位就爆了。 投行交易台就必须要在市场上卖掉这些利率互换头寸。这就导致利率互换的利率继续上升！从而再拖垮其他流动性还不错的养老金。当时整个利率互换市场市场已经瘫痪， 多数做市商已经离场。 以前一年期的英国利率互换的买卖差价也就0.1-0.2 bps,当时已经上升到9-10bps!出现了死亡螺旋之后，唯一能够做的就是等英国央行救市。 好在央行果断出手，祭出QE压住国债利率上升的势头。死亡螺旋被打破。把不少养老金以及那些LDI基金从死亡的边缘拉回来。但不是所有的人都看到了黎明。 几家大的英国资管的LDI基金就爆了。 看看他们的股价就知道。。。。 我就不公布他们的名字了，留点口德。最惨的是那些倒在黎明前夜的养老金，以及靠这些养老金生活的持有人。如果救市再晚两天，整个养老金行业就gg了。而LDI这个行业随着这次巨震，即使活下来的基金也很难继续生存下去， 这个行业的商业模式的最大缺点已经被暴露了。而如果不用杠杆， 这个行业也生存不下去。只能说这个行业在不久的将来很可能会消失。打破了死亡螺旋，50年英国国债一天就上涨了40%！ 谁说国债涨的慢？","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"EWU":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1053,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":663050865,"gmtCreate":1662698970459,"gmtModify":1676537122763,"author":{"id":"3560270530016088","authorId":"3560270530016088","name":"DKTED","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3560270530016088","authorIdStr":"3560270530016088"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"1","listText":"1","text":"1","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/663050865","repostId":"1159026938","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1272,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}
