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2021-04-24

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2021-04-23

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2021-04-21

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Hillhouse Capital or Tiger Fund, who is better at speculating in Chinese concept stocks?

2021-04-25

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Dialogue with Ren Zeping: What should I do if inflation comes? House Prices, the Stock Market and the Future of 2021

2021-02-01

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2021-04-30

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Preview: In addition to the hot non-agricultural business, what else is there to watch in May?

2021-04-27

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There are three major reasons why Biden's tax increase plan is accused of being pointless

2021-04-25

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2021-04-21

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[Change] Some popular Chinese concept stocks rose, and Yixian E-commerce rose more than 10%

2021-04-21

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[Change] Some popular Chinese concept stocks rose, and Yixian E-commerce rose more than 10%

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23:03","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Preview: In addition to the hot non-agricultural business, what else is there to watch in May?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1137689010","media":"金十数据","summary":"5月远不止非农就业数据和美联储动态要关注。","content":"<p>Author: Zhang Fujian</p><p>May is about to open. Unlike last May, people are getting back on track as vaccination efforts continue to advance, various entertainment venues are opening up one after another, and the jobs report is doing well, so there's a lot to look forward to this May.</p><p>Perhaps the employment data isn't as exciting as the various entertainment activities, after all, people haven't participated in entertainment activities in a year. However, the U.S. non-farm payrolls data for April released next Friday (May 7th) may cause waves in the stock and bond markets in May.</p><p>Will the employment data continue the strong performance in March? If the performance is strong, will it cause consumers to worry about economic overheating? How will the Fed respond? Each of these issues could have an impact on trading in the coming days or weeks.</p><p>In addition to employment data and speeches from Fed officials, there are many things worthy of attention in May, including the first-quarter financial reports of U.S. companies, the epidemic situation in various countries, the progress of Biden's infrastructure plan, and any news about corporate mergers and acquisitions.<b>However, the employment report and Fed dynamics are still the two biggest highlights.</b></p><p><b>Aspect 1: Will non-agricultural activities in April be very beautiful?</b></p><p>In May last year, Americans were basically fighting the epidemic, and the employment data released at that time was very ugly. The employment report shows that the number of unemployed people in the United States exceeded 20 million in April last year, and the unemployment rate soared to 14.7%.</p><p>By May this year, the market expected 916,000 new jobs to be created in the United States, and the unemployment rate dropped to 6%. Of course, the unemployment rate is still some way from pre-pandemic levels, and millions of people in the United States are still unemployed. Previous data also gave us some reference. In the first two weeks, the number of U.S. initial jobless claims hit new lows since the epidemic, both less than 600,000, but still very high.</p><p>But on the whole, the latest employment report should suggest that the situation is improving, so you can look forward to it.</p><p>The question now is, if the employment data performs brilliantly, will it raise people's concerns about inflation? Briefing Research said that in fact, earlier this year, there were already concerns about inflation in the market. It's just that the Fed's stance on inflation temporarily eased market concerns.</p><p>But recently,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/KO\">Coca-Cola</a>Big companies such as Kimberly-Clark and Kimberly-Clark have announced price increases. These companies say they will have to raise prices if higher costs affect their profits. If so, it will inevitably trigger people's panic again.</p><p>Previously, due to rising inflation concerns, the yield of 10-year U.S. Treasury Bond rose from about 0.9% to 1.77% in the first quarter of this year, setting a 13-month high.</p><p>Although the volatility of the bond market declined in April, if the data improves, it is not ruled out that the volatility will rise sharply again in May. You know, rising U.S. bond yields are often accompanied by inflation concerns, which hurts growth stocks a lot.</p><p><b>Aspect 2: Will the Federal Reserve reveal a hawkish signal?</b></p><p><b>It's too early to discuss rate hike? The market doesn't think so.</b></p><p>At the end of April, the CME group (CME) FedWatch forecast tool showed that the probability of the Fed's rate hike before the end of 2021 was 10%. Recently, bets on rate hike have suddenly dropped sharply. Barron's research shows that the possibility of rate hike by the Federal Reserve this year is almost zero. Many analysts also say the Fed won't rate hike until late 2022 at the earliest. The Federal Reserve itself predicts that there will be no rate hike until 2023.</p><p><b>Keep an eye out for FedWatch forecasts in May, things could change</b>。 After all, interest rates near zero have been maintained for a year, and investors are waiting for a signal from rate hike. In addition to rate hike, investors should also pay attention to whether the Federal Reserve will withdraw its $120 billion monthly bond purchase program.</p><p>However, the market generally expects that the possibility of the Fed turning hawkish in the near future is extremely low, because the Fed is currently focused on reducing the unemployment rate and raising the inflation rate above 2%.</p><p>Aspect 3:<b>Do the financial reports of various companies continue to be bright?</b></p><p>The United States ushered in the earnings season in mid-April, and most technology, telecommunications and medical companies performed strongly financially. Of course, the performance of some companies is not satisfactory, beyond Wall Street's expectations, such as Emirates Airlines; Netflix's financial report was also a big disappointment; The earnings report of furniture companies (Bed, Bath & Beyond) was also unimpressive.</p><p>May, and including<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WMT\">Walmart</a>(Walmart),<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PFE\">Pfizer</a>(Pfizer), Lyft,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/0MPH.UK\">Deutsche Telekom</a>T-Mobile,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UBER\">Uber</a>Large companies such as Uber, Moderna and Deere will report earnings, and investors can continue to pay attention.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/efab2d77547ab9ef255066078501f62d\" tg-width=\"831\" tg-height=\"441\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The tug-of-war between growth and value stocks is likely to continue as earnings come out one after another. Year-to-date, the S&P 500 Index (candlestick chart) has outperformed the Nasdaq 100 Index (purple line). Value stocks fared better in March, while growth stocks and technology stocks fared even better in April. As for which type of stock performed better in May, we will wait and see.</p><p><b>Aspect 4: Beware of fluctuations in commodity prices</b></p><p>In addition to the above developments, investors also need to pay attention to commodity prices in May. In April, crude oil, lumber and copper performed strongly, which is a sign of economic growth, but it may also compress the profit margins of many companies.</p><p>You know, the price of commodities affects many companies. If the price of crude oil rises to US $70/barrel, it will greatly increase transportation costs and bring difficulties to transportation companies. In addition, companies like Walmart and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon</a>Its supply chain is heavily dependent on cheap energy supplies, and if prices soar, they won't have an easy time. Manufacturing and real estate are also affected by copper and lumber prices.</p><p><b>Aspect 5: Progress of Biden's infrastructure bill</b></p><p>Finally, we can also pay attention to the progress of Biden's $2 trillion infrastructure bill. According to foreign media reports, on April 22, the Biden administration proposed to raise the capital gains tax, and the stock market plummeted that day. In May, Congress will continue to discuss the plan, and you can pay attention to the impact of this tax increase plan on market sentiment.</p>","source":"jssj","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Preview: In addition to the hot non-agricultural business, what else is there to watch in May?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPreview: In addition to the hot non-agricultural business, what else is there to watch in May?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">金十数据</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-04-30 23:03</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Author: Zhang Fujian</p><p>May is about to open. Unlike last May, people are getting back on track as vaccination efforts continue to advance, various entertainment venues are opening up one after another, and the jobs report is doing well, so there's a lot to look forward to this May.</p><p>Perhaps the employment data isn't as exciting as the various entertainment activities, after all, people haven't participated in entertainment activities in a year. However, the U.S. non-farm payrolls data for April released next Friday (May 7th) may cause waves in the stock and bond markets in May.</p><p>Will the employment data continue the strong performance in March? If the performance is strong, will it cause consumers to worry about economic overheating? How will the Fed respond? Each of these issues could have an impact on trading in the coming days or weeks.</p><p>In addition to employment data and speeches from Fed officials, there are many things worthy of attention in May, including the first-quarter financial reports of U.S. companies, the epidemic situation in various countries, the progress of Biden's infrastructure plan, and any news about corporate mergers and acquisitions.<b>However, the employment report and Fed dynamics are still the two biggest highlights.</b></p><p><b>Aspect 1: Will non-agricultural activities in April be very beautiful?</b></p><p>In May last year, Americans were basically fighting the epidemic, and the employment data released at that time was very ugly. The employment report shows that the number of unemployed people in the United States exceeded 20 million in April last year, and the unemployment rate soared to 14.7%.</p><p>By May this year, the market expected 916,000 new jobs to be created in the United States, and the unemployment rate dropped to 6%. Of course, the unemployment rate is still some way from pre-pandemic levels, and millions of people in the United States are still unemployed. Previous data also gave us some reference. In the first two weeks, the number of U.S. initial jobless claims hit new lows since the epidemic, both less than 600,000, but still very high.</p><p>But on the whole, the latest employment report should suggest that the situation is improving, so you can look forward to it.</p><p>The question now is, if the employment data performs brilliantly, will it raise people's concerns about inflation? Briefing Research said that in fact, earlier this year, there were already concerns about inflation in the market. It's just that the Fed's stance on inflation temporarily eased market concerns.</p><p>But recently,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/KO\">Coca-Cola</a>Big companies such as Kimberly-Clark and Kimberly-Clark have announced price increases. These companies say they will have to raise prices if higher costs affect their profits. If so, it will inevitably trigger people's panic again.</p><p>Previously, due to rising inflation concerns, the yield of 10-year U.S. Treasury Bond rose from about 0.9% to 1.77% in the first quarter of this year, setting a 13-month high.</p><p>Although the volatility of the bond market declined in April, if the data improves, it is not ruled out that the volatility will rise sharply again in May. You know, rising U.S. bond yields are often accompanied by inflation concerns, which hurts growth stocks a lot.</p><p><b>Aspect 2: Will the Federal Reserve reveal a hawkish signal?</b></p><p><b>It's too early to discuss rate hike? The market doesn't think so.</b></p><p>At the end of April, the CME group (CME) FedWatch forecast tool showed that the probability of the Fed's rate hike before the end of 2021 was 10%. Recently, bets on rate hike have suddenly dropped sharply. Barron's research shows that the possibility of rate hike by the Federal Reserve this year is almost zero. Many analysts also say the Fed won't rate hike until late 2022 at the earliest. The Federal Reserve itself predicts that there will be no rate hike until 2023.</p><p><b>Keep an eye out for FedWatch forecasts in May, things could change</b>。 After all, interest rates near zero have been maintained for a year, and investors are waiting for a signal from rate hike. In addition to rate hike, investors should also pay attention to whether the Federal Reserve will withdraw its $120 billion monthly bond purchase program.</p><p>However, the market generally expects that the possibility of the Fed turning hawkish in the near future is extremely low, because the Fed is currently focused on reducing the unemployment rate and raising the inflation rate above 2%.</p><p>Aspect 3:<b>Do the financial reports of various companies continue to be bright?</b></p><p>The United States ushered in the earnings season in mid-April, and most technology, telecommunications and medical companies performed strongly financially. Of course, the performance of some companies is not satisfactory, beyond Wall Street's expectations, such as Emirates Airlines; Netflix's financial report was also a big disappointment; The earnings report of furniture companies (Bed, Bath & Beyond) was also unimpressive.</p><p>May, and including<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WMT\">Walmart</a>(Walmart),<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PFE\">Pfizer</a>(Pfizer), Lyft,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/0MPH.UK\">Deutsche Telekom</a>T-Mobile,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UBER\">Uber</a>Large companies such as Uber, Moderna and Deere will report earnings, and investors can continue to pay attention.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/efab2d77547ab9ef255066078501f62d\" tg-width=\"831\" tg-height=\"441\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The tug-of-war between growth and value stocks is likely to continue as earnings come out one after another. Year-to-date, the S&P 500 Index (candlestick chart) has outperformed the Nasdaq 100 Index (purple line). Value stocks fared better in March, while growth stocks and technology stocks fared even better in April. As for which type of stock performed better in May, we will wait and see.</p><p><b>Aspect 4: Beware of fluctuations in commodity prices</b></p><p>In addition to the above developments, investors also need to pay attention to commodity prices in May. In April, crude oil, lumber and copper performed strongly, which is a sign of economic growth, but it may also compress the profit margins of many companies.</p><p>You know, the price of commodities affects many companies. If the price of crude oil rises to US $70/barrel, it will greatly increase transportation costs and bring difficulties to transportation companies. In addition, companies like Walmart and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon</a>Its supply chain is heavily dependent on cheap energy supplies, and if prices soar, they won't have an easy time. Manufacturing and real estate are also affected by copper and lumber prices.</p><p><b>Aspect 5: Progress of Biden's infrastructure bill</b></p><p>Finally, we can also pay attention to the progress of Biden's $2 trillion infrastructure bill. According to foreign media reports, on April 22, the Biden administration proposed to raise the capital gains tax, and the stock market plummeted that day. In May, Congress will continue to discuss the plan, and you can pay attention to the impact of this tax increase plan on market sentiment.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://xnews.jin10.com/details/73955\">金十数据</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2578fef036607345dce47cc401e172a3","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://xnews.jin10.com/details/73955","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1137689010","content_text":"作者：张富健5月即将开启。与去年5月不同的是，随着疫苗接种工作持续推进，各种娱乐场所陆续开放，人们正在重回正轨，就业报告也表现出色，所以今年5月有很多值得期待的地方。或许就业数据没有各种娱乐活动那么令人兴奋，毕竟人们已经一年没有参加娱乐活动了。不过，下周五（5月7日）公布的美国4月非农就业人口数据可能会在5月的股市和债市里掀起一番波澜。就业数据是否会延续3月的强势表现？若表现强势，又是否会引发消费者对经济过热的担忧？美联储又将如何回应？这些问题都可能会对未来几天或数周的交易产生影响。除了就业数据以及美联储官员的讲话，5月还有很多值得关注的地方，包括美国各公司一季度财报、各国的疫情状况、拜登基建计划的进展以及任何有关企业并购的消息。不过，就业报告和美联储动态仍是两个最大的看点。看点一：4月非农将会十分靓丽？去年5月，美国人基本都在跟疫情作斗争，当时公布的就业数据可谓十分难看。就业报告显示，去年4月美国失业人口超过2000万人，失业率飙升至14.7%。到了今年5月，市场预期美国新增就业岗位91.6万个，失业率降至6%。当然，失业率距离疫情前水平还有一段距离，美国还是有数百万人没有工作。此前的数据也给了我们一些参考。前两周的美国初请失业金人数均创下疫情以来的新低，均少于60万人，但还是很高。但是总的来说，最新就业报告应该会暗示状况好转，大家可以期待一下。现在的问题是，如果就业数据表现靓丽，这是否会引发人们对通胀的担忧？Briefing研究公司表示，其实，今年早些时候，市场上就已经出现了对通胀的担忧。只不过美联储对于通胀的表态暂时缓解了市场担忧。但是近期，可口可乐和金佰利等大公司纷纷宣布涨价，这些公司表示，如果成本升高影响到了它们的利润的话，它们将不得不抬高价格。若真如此，这难免会再次引发了人们的恐慌情绪。此前由于通胀担忧升温，今年第一季度美国10年期国债收益率就从0.9%左右涨到了1.77%，创下了13个月以来的新高。虽然4月债市波动率有所下降，但如果数据转好，不排除5月波动率会重新大涨。要知道，美债收益率上升往往伴随着通胀担忧，这对成长型股票的伤害很大。看点二：美联储会透露转鹰信号吗？现在讨论加息还为时尚早？市场并不这么认为。4月底，芝商所（CME）FedWatch预测工具显示，美联储在2021年末前加息的概率为10%。近期加息押注却突然大降，巴伦周刊的研究表明，美联储今年加息的可能性几乎为零。许多分析师也表示，美联储最早要到2022年末才会加息。而美联储自己也预计，到2023年之前都不会加息。5月份要留意FedWatch的预测，情况可能会有所变化。毕竟接近于零的利率已经维持了一年了，投资者正在等待加息的信号。除了加息以外，投资者还要关注美联储会不会撤回1200亿美元的月度购债计划。不过，市场普遍预计美联储近期转鹰的可能性极低，因为美联储目前专注于降低失业率以及将通胀率抬高到2%以上。看点三：各公司财报是否持续亮眼？4月中美国迎来了财报季，大多数的科技、电信和医疗公司财务状况表现强劲。当然，有的公司表现也不尽人意，出乎华尔街的预期，例如阿联酋航空公司；奈飞的财报也令人大失所望；家具用品企业（Bed, Bath & Beyond）的财报也没有给人留下深刻印象。5月，还有包括沃尔玛（Walmart）、辉瑞（Pfizer）、来福车（Lyft）、德国电信（T-Mobile）、优步（Uber）、莫德纳（Moderna）以及迪尔（Deere）在内的大公司将会公布财报，投资者可以继续关注。随着财报陆续公布，成长型股和价值型股之间的拉锯战可能会持续。今年迄今，标普500指数表现（蜡烛图）跑赢了纳斯达克100指数（紫线）。3月，价值型股的表现较优，而4月成长型股和科技股则更为出色。至于5月，哪一类型的股票的表现更好，我们拭目以待。看点四：警惕大宗商品价格的波动除了上述动态以外，5月投资者还需关注大宗商品价格。4月，原油、木材和铜的表现强劲，这是经济增长的表现，但也可能压缩了许多公司的利润空间。要知道，大宗商品的价格影响着很多公司。如果原油价格升至70美元/桶，那么将极大增加运输成本，给交通运输公司带来困难。另外，像沃尔玛和亚马逊的供应链严重依赖于廉价能源供应，如果价格飙升，他们的日子都不会好过。而制造业和房地产也受到铜价和木材价格的影响。看点五：拜登基建法案的进展最后，我们还可以关注拜登的2万亿美元基建法案的进展。据外媒报道，4月22日，拜登政府提议将提高资本利得税，股市当日闻讯一度急跌。5月，国会将继续就该计划进行商讨，大家可关注这个加税计划对市场情绪的影响。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1129,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":377254065,"gmtCreate":1619532216457,"gmtModify":1704725539237,"author":{"id":"3568196683280287","authorId":"3568196683280287","name":"杨胜胜","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/39b07ed709bc0fdb73851119781eaa64","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3568196683280287","authorIdStr":"3568196683280287"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"？？？？","listText":"？？？？","text":"？？？？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/377254065","repostId":"2130475313","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2130475313","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1619504570,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2130475313?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-04-27 14:22","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"There are three major reasons why Biden's tax increase plan is accused of being pointless","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2130475313","media":"新浪财经","summary":"在拜登即将揭晓大规模增税计划之际，经济学家兼基金经理丹尼尔·拉考（Daniel Lacalle）却表示，拜登宣布对企业和富人大规模增税根本没有意义。\n他认为，增税将对经济增长、投资和就业创造产生影响，","content":"<p>Just as Biden is about to unveil his plan for massive tax increases, economist and fund manager Daniel Lacalle said that Biden's announcement of massive tax increases on corporations and the wealthy simply makes no sense.</p><p>He believes that tax increases will have an impact on economic growth, investment and job creation, but they will not solve the structural deficit problem, and the impact on debt and deficit is almost negligible.</p><p>Such a massive tax rate hike is unjustified either from an income perspective or from a growth target perspective. The Biden administration should use all its tools to support economic growth if it solves the rising deficit problem.</p><p>Lacalle shows why raising taxes makes no sense in three ways:</p><p>First, the impact on real income is negligible.</p><p>In 2018, the U.S. federal capital gains tax revenue was $158.4 billion. Princeton University estimates that every 5 percentage point increase in the current tax system would provide an additional $18 billion to $30 billion in tax revenue under an optimistic scenario of not being negatively impacted by tax increases.</p><p>According to optimistic expectations for growth in corporate and personal income tax revenues, corporate income tax rate increases will increase taxes by $691 billion, while so-called \"abolishing tax loopholes,\" ending fossil fuel tax breaks and anti-tax inversion measures will increase revenues by $271 billion.</p><p>Of course, the above is only an optimistic estimate, provided that the tax increase will not have any negative impact on the economy and GDP growth will not be affected in any way, but the actual situation cannot be so idealistic.</p><p>Second, the negative impact of tax increases will exceed the Biden administration's expectations.</p><p>These tax increases don't just affect the \"rich\". Such a high capital gains tax would stifle innovation and reduce flows into private equity, which is essential to driving start-ups and new high-productivity businesses.</p><p>This is why Europe has lowered or even eliminated capital gains taxes. Belgium, Luxembourg and Switzerland all have no capital gains tax. Among the countries that impose capital gains tax, Greece and Hungary have the lowest tax rate at 15%. The average for European countries is 19.3%.</p><p>The same goes for corporate tax rates. Under Biden's plan, the U.S. would have the highest corporate tax rate in the OECD (28%). Many people believe that the effective tax rate for businesses is lower, while in other countries businesses are also subject to VAT.</p><p>The average effective tax rate for U.S. companies is 36.5%, compared with 21.1% for EU companies, according to the European Commission.</p><p>When comparing real interest rates, many American analysts are playing some tricks, either adding loss-making companies to calculate together, or averaging the tax rates of technology giants with those of other industries.</p><p>It is clear that tax increases will increase the risk of capital outflows from the United States to other countries with more competitive taxes. These tax increases may have little impact on multinational companies, but they have had a particularly negative impact on medium-sized enterprises. This is why these measures are regressive.</p><p>Even Yellen knows that this tax increase is harmful, which is why she wants a global tax. If she didn't see the downside, she'd let other countries manage their taxes as they wanted.</p><p>Finally, the problem of mandatory spending (that is, the deficit problem) remains unsolved.</p><p>Mandatory spending in the United States has surged from $1.8 trillion in 2008 to $2.9 trillion in 2020, and is expected to increase by another $1 trillion over the next 10 years. The main reason for the U.S. deficit is the increase in mandatory spending, because revenues can't match the increase in spending that the government can't control.</p><p>When the spending side is growing faster than economic output and income, even in times of economic expansion, it is impossible to reduce the deficit by raising taxes.</p><p>No matter in any economic cycle, the fiscal revenue brought by tax increases can hardly cover the annual expenditure growth of more than 200 billion dollars and the deficit of more than one trillion dollars.</p><p>So why is Biden doing this?</p><p>Lacalle believes that Biden is trying to please his party and voters, and is not worried about what negative impact this will have on the economy. They just want to stop the rich from getting richer.</p><p>He said Biden's plan to raise taxes doesn't make sense from a growth, revenue or deficit perspective. And it makes no sense from the perspective of the interests of the Republican Party or the Democratic Party. Because it simply doesn't make sense, and it doesn't solve America's main problem: ballooning mandatory spending.</p>","source":"sina_us","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>There are three major reasons why Biden's tax increase plan is accused of being pointless</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThere are three major reasons why Biden's tax increase plan is accused of being pointless\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">新浪财经</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-04-27 14:22</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Just as Biden is about to unveil his plan for massive tax increases, economist and fund manager Daniel Lacalle said that Biden's announcement of massive tax increases on corporations and the wealthy simply makes no sense.</p><p>He believes that tax increases will have an impact on economic growth, investment and job creation, but they will not solve the structural deficit problem, and the impact on debt and deficit is almost negligible.</p><p>Such a massive tax rate hike is unjustified either from an income perspective or from a growth target perspective. The Biden administration should use all its tools to support economic growth if it solves the rising deficit problem.</p><p>Lacalle shows why raising taxes makes no sense in three ways:</p><p>First, the impact on real income is negligible.</p><p>In 2018, the U.S. federal capital gains tax revenue was $158.4 billion. Princeton University estimates that every 5 percentage point increase in the current tax system would provide an additional $18 billion to $30 billion in tax revenue under an optimistic scenario of not being negatively impacted by tax increases.</p><p>According to optimistic expectations for growth in corporate and personal income tax revenues, corporate income tax rate increases will increase taxes by $691 billion, while so-called \"abolishing tax loopholes,\" ending fossil fuel tax breaks and anti-tax inversion measures will increase revenues by $271 billion.</p><p>Of course, the above is only an optimistic estimate, provided that the tax increase will not have any negative impact on the economy and GDP growth will not be affected in any way, but the actual situation cannot be so idealistic.</p><p>Second, the negative impact of tax increases will exceed the Biden administration's expectations.</p><p>These tax increases don't just affect the \"rich\". Such a high capital gains tax would stifle innovation and reduce flows into private equity, which is essential to driving start-ups and new high-productivity businesses.</p><p>This is why Europe has lowered or even eliminated capital gains taxes. Belgium, Luxembourg and Switzerland all have no capital gains tax. Among the countries that impose capital gains tax, Greece and Hungary have the lowest tax rate at 15%. The average for European countries is 19.3%.</p><p>The same goes for corporate tax rates. Under Biden's plan, the U.S. would have the highest corporate tax rate in the OECD (28%). Many people believe that the effective tax rate for businesses is lower, while in other countries businesses are also subject to VAT.</p><p>The average effective tax rate for U.S. companies is 36.5%, compared with 21.1% for EU companies, according to the European Commission.</p><p>When comparing real interest rates, many American analysts are playing some tricks, either adding loss-making companies to calculate together, or averaging the tax rates of technology giants with those of other industries.</p><p>It is clear that tax increases will increase the risk of capital outflows from the United States to other countries with more competitive taxes. These tax increases may have little impact on multinational companies, but they have had a particularly negative impact on medium-sized enterprises. This is why these measures are regressive.</p><p>Even Yellen knows that this tax increase is harmful, which is why she wants a global tax. If she didn't see the downside, she'd let other countries manage their taxes as they wanted.</p><p>Finally, the problem of mandatory spending (that is, the deficit problem) remains unsolved.</p><p>Mandatory spending in the United States has surged from $1.8 trillion in 2008 to $2.9 trillion in 2020, and is expected to increase by another $1 trillion over the next 10 years. The main reason for the U.S. deficit is the increase in mandatory spending, because revenues can't match the increase in spending that the government can't control.</p><p>When the spending side is growing faster than economic output and income, even in times of economic expansion, it is impossible to reduce the deficit by raising taxes.</p><p>No matter in any economic cycle, the fiscal revenue brought by tax increases can hardly cover the annual expenditure growth of more than 200 billion dollars and the deficit of more than one trillion dollars.</p><p>So why is Biden doing this?</p><p>Lacalle believes that Biden is trying to please his party and voters, and is not worried about what negative impact this will have on the economy. They just want to stop the rich from getting richer.</p><p>He said Biden's plan to raise taxes doesn't make sense from a growth, revenue or deficit perspective. And it makes no sense from the perspective of the interests of the Republican Party or the Democratic Party. Because it simply doesn't make sense, and it doesn't solve America's main problem: ballooning mandatory spending.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://finance.sina.com.cn/world/2021-04-27/doc-ikmxzfmk9226419.shtml\">新浪财经</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/be1f2064b1def89283b4efa9b8ac4586","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://finance.sina.com.cn/world/2021-04-27/doc-ikmxzfmk9226419.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2130475313","content_text":"在拜登即将揭晓大规模增税计划之际，经济学家兼基金经理丹尼尔·拉考（Daniel Lacalle）却表示，拜登宣布对企业和富人大规模增税根本没有意义。\n他认为，增税将对经济增长、投资和就业创造产生影响，但却并不能解决结构性的赤字问题，对债务和赤字的影响几乎可以忽略不计。\n无论是从收入角度还是从增长目标来看，如此大规模的税率上调都是毫无道理的。如果经济增长能解决不断上升的赤字问题，拜登政府就应该使用所有工具来支持经济增长。\nLacalle从三个方面说明了为什么增税毫无意义：\n首先，对实际收入的影响可以忽略不计。\n2018年，美国联邦资本利得税收入为1584亿美元。据普林斯顿大学（Princeton University）估计，在不受增税负面影响的乐观情况下，现行税收制度每提高5个百分点，将额外提供180亿至300亿美元的税收。\n根据对企业和个人所得税收入增长的乐观预期，企业所得税税率提高将增加6910亿美元税收，而所谓的“废除税收漏洞”、终止化石燃料税收减免和反税收倒置措施将增加2710亿美元收入。\n当然，以上只是乐观估计，前提是增税不会对经济产生任何负面影响，GDP增长也不会受到任何影响，但实际情况不可能如此理想化。\n其次，增税的负面影响将超过拜登政府的预期。\n这些增税并不只会影响“富人”。如此高的资本利得税会扼杀创新，减少流入私人股本的资金，而私人股本对于推动初创企业和新的高生产率企业至关重要。\n这就是欧洲降低甚至取消资本利得税的原因。比利时，卢森堡，瑞士都没有资本利得税。在征收资本利得税的国家中，希腊和匈牙利的税率最低，为15%。欧洲国家的平均水平是19.3%。\n企业税率也是如此。根据拜登的计划，美国将拥有经合组织中最高的企业税率（28%）。许多人认为，企业的实际税率更低，而在其他国家，企业还需要缴纳增值税。\n欧盟委员会的数据显示，美国公司的实际平均税率为36.5%，而欧盟公司的平均税率为21.1%。\n在比较实际利率时，很多美国的分析都在耍些小把戏，要么把亏损的公司加进去一起计算，要么把科技巨头的税率与其他行业的进行平均。\n增税将增加资本从美国外流到其他税收更有竞争力的国家的风险，这是显而易见的。这些增税措施可能对跨国公司影响不大，但却对中型企业产生了特别大的负面影响。这就是为什么这些措施是倒退的。\n就连耶伦也知道这种增税是有害的，这就是她想要全球征税的原因。如果她没有看到负面影响，她会让其他国家按照他们的意愿管理他们的税收。\n最后，强制性支出的问题（也就是赤字问题）依然没有得到解决。\n美国的强制支出已从2008年的1.8万亿美元激增至2020年的2.9万亿美元，预计未来10年还会再增加1万亿美元。美国赤字的主要原因是强制性支出的增加，因为收入无法与政府控制不了的支出增长相匹配。\n当支出方面的增长速度超过经济产出和收入时，即使是在经济扩张时期，也不可能通过增税来削减赤字。\n不管在任何经济周期中，增税带来的财政收入，都难以覆盖每年逾2000亿美元的支出增长，以及超过一万亿美元的赤字。\n那么拜登为什么要这么做呢？\nLacalle认为，拜登是为了取悦他的政党和选民，并不担心这会对经济产生什么负面影响，他们只是想阻止富人变得更富。\n他表示，从增长、收入或赤字的角度来看，拜登的增税计划没有意义。而且无论从共和党还是民主党的利益角度来看，也都没有意义。因为这根本不合情理，也没有解决美国最主要的问题：不断膨胀的强制性支出。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1417,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":375375566,"gmtCreate":1619312734555,"gmtModify":1704722253515,"author":{"id":"3568196683280287","authorId":"3568196683280287","name":"杨胜胜","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/39b07ed709bc0fdb73851119781eaa64","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3568196683280287","authorIdStr":"3568196683280287"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"??","listText":"??","text":"??","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/375375566","repostId":"1104243150","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1104243150","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"预判经济形势，解读公共政策，提供及时信息，推送专业报告。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"泽平宏观","id":"49","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/947583bee22e443aa795464217837990"},"pubTimestamp":1619305333,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1104243150?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-04-25 07:02","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"Dialogue with Ren Zeping: What should I do if inflation comes? House Prices, the Stock Market and the Future of 2021","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1104243150","media":"泽平宏观","summary":"4月16日上午10点，国家统计局公布了2021年一季度宏观经济报告，其中有非常多数据，最引人关注的，就是今年一季度我们的GDP同比增长了18.3%。这个亮眼的数据，是建立在去年疫情暴发，中国经济遭遇毁","content":"<p>At 10 a.m. on April 16, the National Bureau of Statistics released the macroeconomic report for the first quarter of 2021, which contains a lot of data. The most interesting one is,<b>That is, in the first quarter of this year, our GDP increased by 18.3% year-on-year.</b></p><p>This eye-catching data is based on a strong rebound against the background of the outbreak of the epidemic last year and the devastating blow to China's economy.</p><p>What does this 18.3% really mean?</p><p>Just two hours after the report was released, Mr. Wu Xiaobo connected with Dr. Ren Zeping and discussed these data for more than an hour in the live broadcast room of Zeping Macro Video Account and Wu Xiaobo Channel Video Account.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b6ad030eca06021626bc8fbbf0c7ebb2\" tg-width=\"1016\" tg-height=\"546\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The minibus will present you with the essence of their conversation.</p><p><b>What does 18.3% mean?</b></p><p><b>Wu Xiaobo:</b>In the first quarter of 2021, GDP increased by 18.3% year-on-year. What does this mean?</p><p><b>Ren Zeping:</b>It looks like 18.3% is very high. In fact, let's calculate that due to the epidemic last year, the growth rate in the first quarter was-6.8%, so there is a base reason for it.<b>Excluding this reason, our compound average growth rate for two consecutive years is 5%.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/593bacc92fa07c7545a37642de2372ef\" tg-width=\"719\" tg-height=\"511\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>But one of the signals it sends is,<b>Since the recovery in the second quarter of last year, by the fourth quarter of last year, China's economy has returned to normal growth levels.</b></p><p>The second point is that China is truly ahead of the world in fighting the epidemic and economic recovery this time.</p><p>The third is the impact of this economic recovery on policies and the stock market.</p><p>Let's talk about the impact on policy first.</p><p>Since the economic recovery in the second quarter of last year, especially<b>In the fourth quarter of last year, our economic growth rate returned to more than 6%. At this time, our monetary policy has been adjusted, from the original easing to the so-called normalization of monetary policy.</b></p><p>That's why I said at the end of last year<b>Inflation expectations</b>, said earlier this year<b>Liquidity inflection point.</b></p><p><b>More importantly, the market style of A shares has changed.</b></p><p><b>After the turning point of liquidity came out, the entire market switched from the original high-valuation sector to the beneficiary of cyclical products, the low-valuation sector and the sector that benefited from the recovery of global trade. This is in the same strain as the big logic we mentioned before.</b></p><p>But there is another issue worth noting here.</p><p><b>Now China and the United States are not on the same track. In terms of recovery, China's economy is three quarters ahead of the U.S. economy, which actually only started to recover at the beginning of this year. We are in the process of normalizing monetary policy, and because the United States has just begun to recover, its demand for monetary policy easing is still very strong.</b></p><p><b>That's why our stock market style switching has even undergone a round of adjustments, but U.S. stocks are still hitting new highs. The reason behind it is that the cycle of economic recovery is different, and the tightness of their respective monetary policies is also different.</b></p><p>Overall, the results of economic recovery are still very brilliant. I think this data objectively speaking is a tribute to our enterprises, including our medical professionals, who have made contributions on various anti-epidemic fronts in the past year.</p><p><b>Wu Xiaobo: You first put forward two macro judgments, inflation expectation and liquidity inflection point, which caused a great controversy in academic circles when you put forward them. I want to know, what kind of data model is your judgment on last year's inflation expectation based on?</b></p><p><b>Ren Zeping: This framework is based on the so-called economic cycle.</b></p><p><b>The economic cycle is generally divided into four stages: recession, recovery, overheating and stagflation</b>, and then recession, recovery, overheating, stagflation.</p><p>The recession is actually from the second half of 2019 to the outbreak of the epidemic, and there is a very obvious recession. Then from Q2 to Q4, it recovered.</p><p>but<b>After the fourth quarter of last year, the economy returned to the normal level, and then evolved. It must be that we entered a stage of inflation and overheating, roughly from the end of last year to the first half of this year.</b>So we made such a judgment.</p><p><b>2. CPI can no longer reflect<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/603883\">Common people</a>life</b></p><p><b>Wu Xiaobo:</b>Let me challenge you.<b>You mentioned inflation expectations, but we can see from the macroeconomic data in the first quarter that the national consumer price (CPI) rose by 0.4% year-on-year in March, decreased by 0.2% in February, and decreased by 0.5% month-on-month.</b></p><p>However, we see that commodity prices, some white goods, that is, refrigerators, air conditioners and washing machines, have increased by about 10% in the past quarter; Movie tickets were 40 yuan last year, but now some cinemas have risen to 80 yuan or even 100 yuan; The price of mattresses has increased by 5% to 6% compared with last year.</p><p><b>I'm curious, why<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/603883\">Common people</a>We perceive the rise in commodity prices, but this data from the National Bureau of Statistics tells us that the national consumer price has only increased by 0.4% year-on-year. Why is there such a big difference?</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ae1a5d53526a6af736aac55433116b98\" tg-width=\"1012\" tg-height=\"480\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Ren Zeping:</b>That's a good question, why is the CPI only a few tenths?</p><p>Now everyone generally feels that it can't be all that in fact.<b>In fact, what we feel is that everything else is rising except pork.</b></p><p><b>Wu Xiaobo:</b>In the first quarter of this year, pork production increased by 31.9%, and pork production increased on a large scale, but pork prices fell by 12.5%.</p><p><b>Ren Zeping:</b>Let me explain it briefly to you, because<b>It just so happens that our round of inflation and the pig cycle are misaligned.</b></p><p><b>In 2019, I put forward a sentence at that time, \"After the pigs are removed, there will be deflation.\" Because the economy was not good at that time, the price of pigs was rising, but everything else was fine.</b></p><p><b>Wu Xiaobo:</b>At that time, the CPI reached about 3.0% to 4%, and then you put forward this point of view. After removing the pigs, the CPI actually reached about tenths, or even negative growth.</p><p><b>Ren Zeping:</b>Yeah,<b>Just because in 2020, the price of pork is falling, so this year is a typical \"inflation after the pigs are removed\". You will find that except for pork, everything else is rising.</b></p><p>Commodity prices are rising, house prices are rising, crude oil prices are rising, and everyone's future decoration costs will also rise, because steel and copper have been rising recently.</p><p><b>Then let's look at PPI, which is our industrial product price index. The industrial product price index rose to 4.4% in March, and 3% was the warning line. It has already risen to 4.4%.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/55a2d5662aa91388651e325cb518c94f\" tg-width=\"576\" tg-height=\"338\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Wu Xiaobo:</b>4.4% rose sharply, with a year-on-year increase of 4.4% in March, an expansion of 2.7 percentage points from February. What do you expect to be the price of industrial products in the second quarter?</p><p><b>Ren Zeping:</b>I estimate that it will continue to rise in the second and third quarters.</p><p><b>Wu Xiaobo:</b>So it's not good news.</p><p><b>Ren Zeping:</b>Not good news. Why did it continue to rise in the second quarter?<b>One is the resonance of economic recovery, globally, Europe, America, China, including Japan. In addition, the United States has allowed the U.S. dollar to irresponsibly flood with liquidity. It has launched a $3 trillion infrastructure stimulus plan to compete with China in the field of new infrastructure, but where the money will come from, most of it must be through over-issuing currency.</b></p><p>Back to the topic just now,<b>In the past few years, pork has had too much impact on CPI, but for example, the more representative housing price index has not been brought in.</b></p><p><b>CPI is called the consumer goods price index, which is a basket of residents' expenditures. In terms of residents' expenditure, let's frankly speak, how much pork can we eat? But the proportion of other expenses such as rent is getting higher and higher.</b></p><p><b>Therefore, CPI indicators are increasingly unable to reflect the inflation really experienced by ordinary people. Therefore, we should respect the objective situation, reduce the weight of pigs slightly, and then mention the housing category, including the latest consumption basket of ordinary people, with relatively large weights. In this way, we can look at the economic situation and the regulation of monetary policy more accurately.</b></p><p><b>Wu Xiaobo:</b>All macroeconomic data are based on models. Then if something goes wrong with this model, all the data you export will eventually go wrong.</p><p><b>Ren Zeping:</b>Xiaobo is right. For example, my CPI has only risen by 0.4% this year. If 0.4% is deflation in China according to the standard, it is not called inflation. So what should I do? This year, we must continue to stimulate by issuing currency, and once the currency stimulates, it will be troublesome, and it will go to heaven if it stimulates again.</p><p><b>Wu Xiaobo:</b>You put forward the inflection point of liquidity at the beginning of this year, and there was a lot of controversy when you put forward it. How was this inflection point judged?</p><p><b>Ren Zeping: Since we saw last year that the so-called inflation expectation is about to rise, from the perspective of monetary policy, because it needs to be adjusted counter-cyclically, then with the recovery of the economy and the rise of inflation, monetary policy can no longer be excessively loose, otherwise it will lead to more serious inflation and even economic overheating.</b></p><p><b>Therefore, as a responsible monetary authority, it has the responsibility to normalize monetary policy at the beginning of this year. In fact, we finally recorded that the growth rates of M2 and social financing have declined for two consecutive months.</b></p><p><b>3. The stability of the RMB is the responsibility of the state to the people</b></p><p><b>Wu Xiaobo:</b>Let me ask you a question, what will happen to China's RMB policy and monetary policy when the US government is throwing so much money now?</p><p><b>Ren Zeping:</b>One is the appreciation of the RMB. Because we didn't over-issue currency, we kept the currency value stable. The party that issues excessive currency will definitely depreciate, and the party that prints less currency will appreciate.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e89a0c6a87e487b270cbe57ab5f5e22e\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"454\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Second, there will be a trend of capital inflow. Since last year, a lot of money has flowed into our country.</p><p><b>Wu Xiaobo: Last year, China's foreign investment introduction surpassed the United States for the first time, becoming the largest foreign investment introduction country in the world.</b></p><p><b>Ren Zeping:</b>The reason is very simple. Holding US dollars is a depreciating asset, and holding RMB is an appreciating asset. Therefore, from the perspective of asset allocation, many investors are willing to hold appreciating assets, that is, RMB.</p><p>In addition, China controlled the epidemic well last year, so only China has this condition when the world cannot invest and resume production.</p><p>Another point that I think is very important is that the country, the government and the central bank of the country must be responsible to the common people.</p><p>The normalization of our monetary policy, according to the monetary authorities, is to keep the currency value stable.<b>The stability of currency value is a kind of saying on international occasions, but internally, isn't it the assets in the pockets of our common people? Cash flow assets can not be devalued, right? Can not be too diluted.</b></p><p><b>For example, the United States has over-issued currency without any limit in the past year, which not only diluted the foreign exchange reserves of China, Japan, the Middle East and the world, but also sacrificed the cash assets of its own people, which is very irresponsible. That's why American populism, anti-globalization and Occupy Wall Street movement will prevail. I think it is the excessive issuance of money on the surface, but in fact it is the widening of the gap between social class and social wealth caused by the excessive issuance of money, as well as the turmoil of social thoughts.</b></p><p><b>4. Housing prices will become more and more differentiated</b></p><p><b>Wu Xiaobo:</b>In the first quarter data report just released, there are three data about real estate. Let me read them to you first.</p><p>Investment in real estate development increased by 25.6% year-on-year, the sales area of commercial housing nationwide increased by 63.8% year-on-year, and the sales of commercial housing increased by 88.5% year-on-year, which is the fastest growth in sales, indicating that house prices are still rising.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bcf5f2735dc17e39fb04fbaa2af9a1b9\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"337\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>I have also observed a phenomenon recently. Nowadays, those so-called luxury houses or serviced apartments in large cities have risen very fast recently. There is a data. In 2020, a total of 30,000 houses with a unit price of more than 10 million were sold in China, which is about 400 to 500 billion. Among these 30,000 units, Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen accounted for 20,000 units, and 20,000 units were sold. Shanghai accounted for 10,000 units.</p><p>Then this is faced with a problem. Currency is constantly over-issued, and real estate investment is constantly increasing. What do you think of house prices?</p><p><b>Ren Zeping: I think so. For real estate and housing prices, everyone will remember a word called \"differentiation\" in the future.</b></p><p>As you all know, I put forward an analysis framework in the field of real estate, called:<b>\"Real estate depends on population in the long term, land in the medium term and finance in the short term\".</b></p><p>Looking at the current and future real estate market in China under such a framework, I think these phenomena are not unusual.</p><p><b>In fact, urbanization is divided into two stages. The first is that the population moves from rural areas to cities, and the other is that the population moves from rural areas to cities<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002195\">Two three four five</a>The population of sixth-tier cities is generally rising, so are housing prices. But when the urbanization rate reaches about 60% or above, it is basically in a differentiated pattern.</b></p><p><b>Population flows from low-energy cities, including rural areas and third-and fourth-tier cities, to metropolitan areas and urban agglomerations. Therefore, not only in the past two years, but also in the next 10 or 20 years, everyone will see this kind of differentiation, which has happened in the United States and Japan.</b></p><p><b>Wu Xiaobo:</b>I remember doing a survey in 2013 and 2014. In Jiangsu, such as Wuxi, Suzhou and Changzhou, the house prices are rising, and there is a prefecture-level city called Zhenjiang on the edge. Zhenjiang has had a net population outflow for 11 consecutive years, so its house prices are stagnant.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9ce09dd3fda9d7e6b7c5aadf0be1aacd\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"399\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Therefore, this differentiation actually happened six or seven years ago. According to what Teacher Zeping said just now, this differentiation will become more and more serious in the future. Young people will gather in super cities or a large city circle, and then big cities will produce a huge siphon phenomenon.</p><p>If some cities' industrial economy is unhealthy, there is no good social security system, there is no good entrepreneurial atmosphere, or the housing price is still relatively high, it will force young people to flow out.</p><p><b>5. Exports exceeding expectations are a victory for China's manufacturing industry</b></p><p><b>Wu Xiaobo:</b>Relatively speaking, the RMB is in a state of passive appreciation, which is actually unfavorable to exports, but we see the data of the first quarter:</p><p>In the first quarter, the total import and export volume of goods increased by 29.2% year-on-year, export commodities increased by 38.7% year-on-year, and imports increased by 19.3%. That is to say, our exports are twice that of imports, and then the trade surplus is 759.3 billion yuan. Generally speaking, exports in the first quarter exceeded expectations. What do you think of this phenomenon?</p><p><b>Ren Zeping:</b>Because in the past year, the appreciation of RMB did have a negative effect on our exports, but we still have many positive effects to offset its negative effects.</p><p><b>▶ ▷ First,</b>In the past year, most of the world's major manufacturing countries have been unable to resume normal production, such as Germany and the United States. Only China has the ability to resume normal production, so it is actually China that is ensuring global supply.</p><p><b>▶ ▷ And second,</b>The strong competitiveness of China's manufacturing industry. Over the years, through technological iterations, including our replacement of labor by machines, including various cost reductions, we have maintained the strong competitiveness of our manufacturing industry.</p><p><b>▶ ▷ And third,</b>I think it has something to do with an issue advocated by Brother Xiaobo for a long time, the rise of new domestic products.</p><p><b>Wu Xiaobo:</b>Let me add two more points. The first point is that after the epidemic last year, China was the world's largest manufacturing country, so our supply chain has not been broken. Because we were the first to control the epidemic, China's entire production system is still recovering completely.</p><p>I started running China's first automobile factory in April last year. On April 8th, Wuhan had not yet opened, but in March, the automobile factory in Wuhan had already started to resume work. By June, the production capacity of all vehicle companies in China had recovered to 80% of the same period last year.<b>Therefore, I think the integrity of the supply chain is a major benefit for China to this round of global trade and global manufacturing.</b></p><p>The second point is the issue of new domestic products you just mentioned.</p><p>Last year, I went to research, and then found that all China's exports were OEM, that is, they all used other people's brands. Nowadays, a large number of Chinese goods exported have their own brands.</p><p>Today, there are about tens of thousands of independent brands of goods sold all over China. These brands, through their own cheap and high-quality ways, have achieved a new brand raid. This is one of the most fundamental reasons why Chinese goods can be exported beyond expectations:<b>Our competitiveness, our channel capabilities, and our brand building capabilities have all withstood the test under this round of COVID-19 pandemic.</b></p><p><b>6. Grasp the switching of stock market styles</b></p><p><b>Wu Xiaobo:</b>What do you think of the current decline in the stock market in the first quarter? What is your judgment on the market outlook?</p><p><b>Ren Zeping:</b>I mainly talk about the style of the market.</p><p><b>For this year, if we continue to follow such a big trend as inflation expectations and liquidity inflection points, then everyone should pay attention to the fact that there will still be obvious changes in the style of the market this year.</b></p><p><b>It turns out that those sectors with high valuations may still be under pressure in the context of rising interest rates, because rising interest rates kill valuations; But because inflation expectations have risen, I think it should be good for cyclical products, those who benefit from price increases, and those who benefit from the recovery of global trade.</b></p><p><b>As for carbon neutrality and carbon peaking, they are all coordinating conditions and catalysts that do not change the general direction.</b></p><p><b>Here's my take on the stock market this year: structural opportunities come alongside structural risks.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c4561949a58567284017c6d57f824eb3\" tg-width=\"449\" tg-height=\"283\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Wu Xiaobo:</b>What should ordinary shareholders and ordinary Christians do?</p><p><b>Ren Zeping:</b>Grasp this switch of market style.<b>Even when you choose a fund manager, you should also choose those who, for example, can quickly make decisions and make style switches, or fund managers who are good at the beneficiary sectors I just mentioned.</b></p><p><b>Wu Xiaobo:</b>Here I would like to remind everyone that Chinese investors have a problem called ADHD: when they buy stocks every day, they will panic when they rise and fall; Okay, now that I've bought funds, Christians also have ADHD. Their professional abilities are obviously given to those fund managers, but they still go to see them every day to see if the funds are rising or falling.</p><p>We have data. When Americans buy a fund, its position adjustment cycle is 16 months, while that of China is two months, a difference of about 8 times.</p><p>The capital market is becoming more rational, the industry is becoming more rational, and our investment philosophy should also be more rational. ADHD is a common problem when we were young in elementary school. If you are in college and still have ADHD, isn't this a very troublesome thing?</p><p><b>7. What to think next in 2021</b></p><p><b>Wu Xiaobo:</b>What do you think of the future? What advice do you have for our business operators, new middle class families in general?</p><p><b>Ren Zeping: I have several judgments.</b></p><p><b>First, in the short term, it is possible that the first quarter is a top of China's economy, or it may enter a top range, while the growth rate in the second and third quarters may gradually slow down.</b></p><p>Because it can't all be 18.3%, later<b>Chinese economy gradually returns to normalization</b>, the base effect of the epidemic will gradually fade<b>。</b>However, you don't have to worry too much about this slowdown. For example, it is normal to drop from 18% to 10%, 8% and 6%.</p><p><b>The potential growth rate of China's economy in the future is about 5% ~ 6%.</b></p><p>The second judgment is that China's monetary authorities are still relatively responsible. Relatively speaking, the currency is actually over-issued, but fortunately, RMB assets are still relatively valuable.</p><p>Third, from a longer-term perspective, including this response to the epidemic, including the previous response to Sino-US trade friction, I think China has responded relatively well.</p><p>Because it is mainly dealt with through reform. In particular, this round of growth trend in China, or the national destiny that everyone talks about, is indeed still on the rise.</p><p>Therefore, for us entrepreneurs and ordinary people, I think we should have confidence in China's economic growth and development.</p><p>Because no one can choose the front, and our camp is very good, we will be lucky enough to witness China surpass the United States to become the largest economy in the world in the next 10 years.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b30837fc9cb7ccb39fd10cbf28f6a5a8\" tg-width=\"1014\" tg-height=\"446\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Wu Xiaobo:</b>Here we talk about the national destiny. We have a data in our economic history research, that is, China was the largest economy in the world for a long time during the period of farming civilization, but by 1828, China's economic aggregate was surpassed by Britain.</p><p>Nearly 200 years from 1828 to now. Today, China's economic aggregate is 70% of that of the United States. If this development speed is maintained, China's economic aggregate should have the opportunity to surpass that of the United States around 2028 or 2030, that is, in 200 years, this country will become the world's largest economy.</p><p><b>So I think each of us is a son and a product of an era. Then confidence in oneself, first of all, comes from confidence in the growth of this country and the national economy.</b></p><p>If you think the elevator has started to go down and stopped running, can you outrun the elevator no matter how fast you run? If we are optimistic about the national economic development in the medium and long term, then our remaining question is what should we do? Do we have some constructive and rational ways to stand still and run forward in the elevator, or in the elevator, I take off my shoes and run forward faster than others.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Dialogue with Ren Zeping: What should I do if inflation comes? 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House Prices, the Stock Market and the Future of 2021\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/49\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/947583bee22e443aa795464217837990);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">泽平宏观 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-04-25 07:02</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>At 10 a.m. on April 16, the National Bureau of Statistics released the macroeconomic report for the first quarter of 2021, which contains a lot of data. The most interesting one is,<b>That is, in the first quarter of this year, our GDP increased by 18.3% year-on-year.</b></p><p>This eye-catching data is based on a strong rebound against the background of the outbreak of the epidemic last year and the devastating blow to China's economy.</p><p>What does this 18.3% really mean?</p><p>Just two hours after the report was released, Mr. Wu Xiaobo connected with Dr. Ren Zeping and discussed these data for more than an hour in the live broadcast room of Zeping Macro Video Account and Wu Xiaobo Channel Video Account.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b6ad030eca06021626bc8fbbf0c7ebb2\" tg-width=\"1016\" tg-height=\"546\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The minibus will present you with the essence of their conversation.</p><p><b>What does 18.3% mean?</b></p><p><b>Wu Xiaobo:</b>In the first quarter of 2021, GDP increased by 18.3% year-on-year. What does this mean?</p><p><b>Ren Zeping:</b>It looks like 18.3% is very high. In fact, let's calculate that due to the epidemic last year, the growth rate in the first quarter was-6.8%, so there is a base reason for it.<b>Excluding this reason, our compound average growth rate for two consecutive years is 5%.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/593bacc92fa07c7545a37642de2372ef\" tg-width=\"719\" tg-height=\"511\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>But one of the signals it sends is,<b>Since the recovery in the second quarter of last year, by the fourth quarter of last year, China's economy has returned to normal growth levels.</b></p><p>The second point is that China is truly ahead of the world in fighting the epidemic and economic recovery this time.</p><p>The third is the impact of this economic recovery on policies and the stock market.</p><p>Let's talk about the impact on policy first.</p><p>Since the economic recovery in the second quarter of last year, especially<b>In the fourth quarter of last year, our economic growth rate returned to more than 6%. At this time, our monetary policy has been adjusted, from the original easing to the so-called normalization of monetary policy.</b></p><p>That's why I said at the end of last year<b>Inflation expectations</b>, said earlier this year<b>Liquidity inflection point.</b></p><p><b>More importantly, the market style of A shares has changed.</b></p><p><b>After the turning point of liquidity came out, the entire market switched from the original high-valuation sector to the beneficiary of cyclical products, the low-valuation sector and the sector that benefited from the recovery of global trade. This is in the same strain as the big logic we mentioned before.</b></p><p>But there is another issue worth noting here.</p><p><b>Now China and the United States are not on the same track. In terms of recovery, China's economy is three quarters ahead of the U.S. economy, which actually only started to recover at the beginning of this year. We are in the process of normalizing monetary policy, and because the United States has just begun to recover, its demand for monetary policy easing is still very strong.</b></p><p><b>That's why our stock market style switching has even undergone a round of adjustments, but U.S. stocks are still hitting new highs. The reason behind it is that the cycle of economic recovery is different, and the tightness of their respective monetary policies is also different.</b></p><p>Overall, the results of economic recovery are still very brilliant. I think this data objectively speaking is a tribute to our enterprises, including our medical professionals, who have made contributions on various anti-epidemic fronts in the past year.</p><p><b>Wu Xiaobo: You first put forward two macro judgments, inflation expectation and liquidity inflection point, which caused a great controversy in academic circles when you put forward them. I want to know, what kind of data model is your judgment on last year's inflation expectation based on?</b></p><p><b>Ren Zeping: This framework is based on the so-called economic cycle.</b></p><p><b>The economic cycle is generally divided into four stages: recession, recovery, overheating and stagflation</b>, and then recession, recovery, overheating, stagflation.</p><p>The recession is actually from the second half of 2019 to the outbreak of the epidemic, and there is a very obvious recession. Then from Q2 to Q4, it recovered.</p><p>but<b>After the fourth quarter of last year, the economy returned to the normal level, and then evolved. It must be that we entered a stage of inflation and overheating, roughly from the end of last year to the first half of this year.</b>So we made such a judgment.</p><p><b>2. CPI can no longer reflect<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/603883\">Common people</a>life</b></p><p><b>Wu Xiaobo:</b>Let me challenge you.<b>You mentioned inflation expectations, but we can see from the macroeconomic data in the first quarter that the national consumer price (CPI) rose by 0.4% year-on-year in March, decreased by 0.2% in February, and decreased by 0.5% month-on-month.</b></p><p>However, we see that commodity prices, some white goods, that is, refrigerators, air conditioners and washing machines, have increased by about 10% in the past quarter; Movie tickets were 40 yuan last year, but now some cinemas have risen to 80 yuan or even 100 yuan; The price of mattresses has increased by 5% to 6% compared with last year.</p><p><b>I'm curious, why<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/603883\">Common people</a>We perceive the rise in commodity prices, but this data from the National Bureau of Statistics tells us that the national consumer price has only increased by 0.4% year-on-year. Why is there such a big difference?</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ae1a5d53526a6af736aac55433116b98\" tg-width=\"1012\" tg-height=\"480\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Ren Zeping:</b>That's a good question, why is the CPI only a few tenths?</p><p>Now everyone generally feels that it can't be all that in fact.<b>In fact, what we feel is that everything else is rising except pork.</b></p><p><b>Wu Xiaobo:</b>In the first quarter of this year, pork production increased by 31.9%, and pork production increased on a large scale, but pork prices fell by 12.5%.</p><p><b>Ren Zeping:</b>Let me explain it briefly to you, because<b>It just so happens that our round of inflation and the pig cycle are misaligned.</b></p><p><b>In 2019, I put forward a sentence at that time, \"After the pigs are removed, there will be deflation.\" Because the economy was not good at that time, the price of pigs was rising, but everything else was fine.</b></p><p><b>Wu Xiaobo:</b>At that time, the CPI reached about 3.0% to 4%, and then you put forward this point of view. After removing the pigs, the CPI actually reached about tenths, or even negative growth.</p><p><b>Ren Zeping:</b>Yeah,<b>Just because in 2020, the price of pork is falling, so this year is a typical \"inflation after the pigs are removed\". You will find that except for pork, everything else is rising.</b></p><p>Commodity prices are rising, house prices are rising, crude oil prices are rising, and everyone's future decoration costs will also rise, because steel and copper have been rising recently.</p><p><b>Then let's look at PPI, which is our industrial product price index. The industrial product price index rose to 4.4% in March, and 3% was the warning line. It has already risen to 4.4%.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/55a2d5662aa91388651e325cb518c94f\" tg-width=\"576\" tg-height=\"338\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Wu Xiaobo:</b>4.4% rose sharply, with a year-on-year increase of 4.4% in March, an expansion of 2.7 percentage points from February. What do you expect to be the price of industrial products in the second quarter?</p><p><b>Ren Zeping:</b>I estimate that it will continue to rise in the second and third quarters.</p><p><b>Wu Xiaobo:</b>So it's not good news.</p><p><b>Ren Zeping:</b>Not good news. Why did it continue to rise in the second quarter?<b>One is the resonance of economic recovery, globally, Europe, America, China, including Japan. In addition, the United States has allowed the U.S. dollar to irresponsibly flood with liquidity. It has launched a $3 trillion infrastructure stimulus plan to compete with China in the field of new infrastructure, but where the money will come from, most of it must be through over-issuing currency.</b></p><p>Back to the topic just now,<b>In the past few years, pork has had too much impact on CPI, but for example, the more representative housing price index has not been brought in.</b></p><p><b>CPI is called the consumer goods price index, which is a basket of residents' expenditures. In terms of residents' expenditure, let's frankly speak, how much pork can we eat? But the proportion of other expenses such as rent is getting higher and higher.</b></p><p><b>Therefore, CPI indicators are increasingly unable to reflect the inflation really experienced by ordinary people. Therefore, we should respect the objective situation, reduce the weight of pigs slightly, and then mention the housing category, including the latest consumption basket of ordinary people, with relatively large weights. In this way, we can look at the economic situation and the regulation of monetary policy more accurately.</b></p><p><b>Wu Xiaobo:</b>All macroeconomic data are based on models. Then if something goes wrong with this model, all the data you export will eventually go wrong.</p><p><b>Ren Zeping:</b>Xiaobo is right. For example, my CPI has only risen by 0.4% this year. If 0.4% is deflation in China according to the standard, it is not called inflation. So what should I do? This year, we must continue to stimulate by issuing currency, and once the currency stimulates, it will be troublesome, and it will go to heaven if it stimulates again.</p><p><b>Wu Xiaobo:</b>You put forward the inflection point of liquidity at the beginning of this year, and there was a lot of controversy when you put forward it. How was this inflection point judged?</p><p><b>Ren Zeping: Since we saw last year that the so-called inflation expectation is about to rise, from the perspective of monetary policy, because it needs to be adjusted counter-cyclically, then with the recovery of the economy and the rise of inflation, monetary policy can no longer be excessively loose, otherwise it will lead to more serious inflation and even economic overheating.</b></p><p><b>Therefore, as a responsible monetary authority, it has the responsibility to normalize monetary policy at the beginning of this year. In fact, we finally recorded that the growth rates of M2 and social financing have declined for two consecutive months.</b></p><p><b>3. The stability of the RMB is the responsibility of the state to the people</b></p><p><b>Wu Xiaobo:</b>Let me ask you a question, what will happen to China's RMB policy and monetary policy when the US government is throwing so much money now?</p><p><b>Ren Zeping:</b>One is the appreciation of the RMB. Because we didn't over-issue currency, we kept the currency value stable. The party that issues excessive currency will definitely depreciate, and the party that prints less currency will appreciate.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e89a0c6a87e487b270cbe57ab5f5e22e\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"454\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Second, there will be a trend of capital inflow. Since last year, a lot of money has flowed into our country.</p><p><b>Wu Xiaobo: Last year, China's foreign investment introduction surpassed the United States for the first time, becoming the largest foreign investment introduction country in the world.</b></p><p><b>Ren Zeping:</b>The reason is very simple. Holding US dollars is a depreciating asset, and holding RMB is an appreciating asset. Therefore, from the perspective of asset allocation, many investors are willing to hold appreciating assets, that is, RMB.</p><p>In addition, China controlled the epidemic well last year, so only China has this condition when the world cannot invest and resume production.</p><p>Another point that I think is very important is that the country, the government and the central bank of the country must be responsible to the common people.</p><p>The normalization of our monetary policy, according to the monetary authorities, is to keep the currency value stable.<b>The stability of currency value is a kind of saying on international occasions, but internally, isn't it the assets in the pockets of our common people? Cash flow assets can not be devalued, right? Can not be too diluted.</b></p><p><b>For example, the United States has over-issued currency without any limit in the past year, which not only diluted the foreign exchange reserves of China, Japan, the Middle East and the world, but also sacrificed the cash assets of its own people, which is very irresponsible. That's why American populism, anti-globalization and Occupy Wall Street movement will prevail. I think it is the excessive issuance of money on the surface, but in fact it is the widening of the gap between social class and social wealth caused by the excessive issuance of money, as well as the turmoil of social thoughts.</b></p><p><b>4. Housing prices will become more and more differentiated</b></p><p><b>Wu Xiaobo:</b>In the first quarter data report just released, there are three data about real estate. Let me read them to you first.</p><p>Investment in real estate development increased by 25.6% year-on-year, the sales area of commercial housing nationwide increased by 63.8% year-on-year, and the sales of commercial housing increased by 88.5% year-on-year, which is the fastest growth in sales, indicating that house prices are still rising.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bcf5f2735dc17e39fb04fbaa2af9a1b9\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"337\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>I have also observed a phenomenon recently. Nowadays, those so-called luxury houses or serviced apartments in large cities have risen very fast recently. There is a data. In 2020, a total of 30,000 houses with a unit price of more than 10 million were sold in China, which is about 400 to 500 billion. Among these 30,000 units, Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen accounted for 20,000 units, and 20,000 units were sold. Shanghai accounted for 10,000 units.</p><p>Then this is faced with a problem. Currency is constantly over-issued, and real estate investment is constantly increasing. What do you think of house prices?</p><p><b>Ren Zeping: I think so. For real estate and housing prices, everyone will remember a word called \"differentiation\" in the future.</b></p><p>As you all know, I put forward an analysis framework in the field of real estate, called:<b>\"Real estate depends on population in the long term, land in the medium term and finance in the short term\".</b></p><p>Looking at the current and future real estate market in China under such a framework, I think these phenomena are not unusual.</p><p><b>In fact, urbanization is divided into two stages. The first is that the population moves from rural areas to cities, and the other is that the population moves from rural areas to cities<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002195\">Two three four five</a>The population of sixth-tier cities is generally rising, so are housing prices. But when the urbanization rate reaches about 60% or above, it is basically in a differentiated pattern.</b></p><p><b>Population flows from low-energy cities, including rural areas and third-and fourth-tier cities, to metropolitan areas and urban agglomerations. Therefore, not only in the past two years, but also in the next 10 or 20 years, everyone will see this kind of differentiation, which has happened in the United States and Japan.</b></p><p><b>Wu Xiaobo:</b>I remember doing a survey in 2013 and 2014. In Jiangsu, such as Wuxi, Suzhou and Changzhou, the house prices are rising, and there is a prefecture-level city called Zhenjiang on the edge. Zhenjiang has had a net population outflow for 11 consecutive years, so its house prices are stagnant.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9ce09dd3fda9d7e6b7c5aadf0be1aacd\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"399\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Therefore, this differentiation actually happened six or seven years ago. According to what Teacher Zeping said just now, this differentiation will become more and more serious in the future. Young people will gather in super cities or a large city circle, and then big cities will produce a huge siphon phenomenon.</p><p>If some cities' industrial economy is unhealthy, there is no good social security system, there is no good entrepreneurial atmosphere, or the housing price is still relatively high, it will force young people to flow out.</p><p><b>5. Exports exceeding expectations are a victory for China's manufacturing industry</b></p><p><b>Wu Xiaobo:</b>Relatively speaking, the RMB is in a state of passive appreciation, which is actually unfavorable to exports, but we see the data of the first quarter:</p><p>In the first quarter, the total import and export volume of goods increased by 29.2% year-on-year, export commodities increased by 38.7% year-on-year, and imports increased by 19.3%. That is to say, our exports are twice that of imports, and then the trade surplus is 759.3 billion yuan. Generally speaking, exports in the first quarter exceeded expectations. What do you think of this phenomenon?</p><p><b>Ren Zeping:</b>Because in the past year, the appreciation of RMB did have a negative effect on our exports, but we still have many positive effects to offset its negative effects.</p><p><b>▶ ▷ First,</b>In the past year, most of the world's major manufacturing countries have been unable to resume normal production, such as Germany and the United States. Only China has the ability to resume normal production, so it is actually China that is ensuring global supply.</p><p><b>▶ ▷ And second,</b>The strong competitiveness of China's manufacturing industry. Over the years, through technological iterations, including our replacement of labor by machines, including various cost reductions, we have maintained the strong competitiveness of our manufacturing industry.</p><p><b>▶ ▷ And third,</b>I think it has something to do with an issue advocated by Brother Xiaobo for a long time, the rise of new domestic products.</p><p><b>Wu Xiaobo:</b>Let me add two more points. The first point is that after the epidemic last year, China was the world's largest manufacturing country, so our supply chain has not been broken. Because we were the first to control the epidemic, China's entire production system is still recovering completely.</p><p>I started running China's first automobile factory in April last year. On April 8th, Wuhan had not yet opened, but in March, the automobile factory in Wuhan had already started to resume work. By June, the production capacity of all vehicle companies in China had recovered to 80% of the same period last year.<b>Therefore, I think the integrity of the supply chain is a major benefit for China to this round of global trade and global manufacturing.</b></p><p>The second point is the issue of new domestic products you just mentioned.</p><p>Last year, I went to research, and then found that all China's exports were OEM, that is, they all used other people's brands. Nowadays, a large number of Chinese goods exported have their own brands.</p><p>Today, there are about tens of thousands of independent brands of goods sold all over China. These brands, through their own cheap and high-quality ways, have achieved a new brand raid. This is one of the most fundamental reasons why Chinese goods can be exported beyond expectations:<b>Our competitiveness, our channel capabilities, and our brand building capabilities have all withstood the test under this round of COVID-19 pandemic.</b></p><p><b>6. Grasp the switching of stock market styles</b></p><p><b>Wu Xiaobo:</b>What do you think of the current decline in the stock market in the first quarter? What is your judgment on the market outlook?</p><p><b>Ren Zeping:</b>I mainly talk about the style of the market.</p><p><b>For this year, if we continue to follow such a big trend as inflation expectations and liquidity inflection points, then everyone should pay attention to the fact that there will still be obvious changes in the style of the market this year.</b></p><p><b>It turns out that those sectors with high valuations may still be under pressure in the context of rising interest rates, because rising interest rates kill valuations; But because inflation expectations have risen, I think it should be good for cyclical products, those who benefit from price increases, and those who benefit from the recovery of global trade.</b></p><p><b>As for carbon neutrality and carbon peaking, they are all coordinating conditions and catalysts that do not change the general direction.</b></p><p><b>Here's my take on the stock market this year: structural opportunities come alongside structural risks.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c4561949a58567284017c6d57f824eb3\" tg-width=\"449\" tg-height=\"283\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Wu Xiaobo:</b>What should ordinary shareholders and ordinary Christians do?</p><p><b>Ren Zeping:</b>Grasp this switch of market style.<b>Even when you choose a fund manager, you should also choose those who, for example, can quickly make decisions and make style switches, or fund managers who are good at the beneficiary sectors I just mentioned.</b></p><p><b>Wu Xiaobo:</b>Here I would like to remind everyone that Chinese investors have a problem called ADHD: when they buy stocks every day, they will panic when they rise and fall; Okay, now that I've bought funds, Christians also have ADHD. Their professional abilities are obviously given to those fund managers, but they still go to see them every day to see if the funds are rising or falling.</p><p>We have data. When Americans buy a fund, its position adjustment cycle is 16 months, while that of China is two months, a difference of about 8 times.</p><p>The capital market is becoming more rational, the industry is becoming more rational, and our investment philosophy should also be more rational. ADHD is a common problem when we were young in elementary school. If you are in college and still have ADHD, isn't this a very troublesome thing?</p><p><b>7. What to think next in 2021</b></p><p><b>Wu Xiaobo:</b>What do you think of the future? What advice do you have for our business operators, new middle class families in general?</p><p><b>Ren Zeping: I have several judgments.</b></p><p><b>First, in the short term, it is possible that the first quarter is a top of China's economy, or it may enter a top range, while the growth rate in the second and third quarters may gradually slow down.</b></p><p>Because it can't all be 18.3%, later<b>Chinese economy gradually returns to normalization</b>, the base effect of the epidemic will gradually fade<b>。</b>However, you don't have to worry too much about this slowdown. For example, it is normal to drop from 18% to 10%, 8% and 6%.</p><p><b>The potential growth rate of China's economy in the future is about 5% ~ 6%.</b></p><p>The second judgment is that China's monetary authorities are still relatively responsible. Relatively speaking, the currency is actually over-issued, but fortunately, RMB assets are still relatively valuable.</p><p>Third, from a longer-term perspective, including this response to the epidemic, including the previous response to Sino-US trade friction, I think China has responded relatively well.</p><p>Because it is mainly dealt with through reform. In particular, this round of growth trend in China, or the national destiny that everyone talks about, is indeed still on the rise.</p><p>Therefore, for us entrepreneurs and ordinary people, I think we should have confidence in China's economic growth and development.</p><p>Because no one can choose the front, and our camp is very good, we will be lucky enough to witness China surpass the United States to become the largest economy in the world in the next 10 years.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b30837fc9cb7ccb39fd10cbf28f6a5a8\" tg-width=\"1014\" tg-height=\"446\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Wu Xiaobo:</b>Here we talk about the national destiny. We have a data in our economic history research, that is, China was the largest economy in the world for a long time during the period of farming civilization, but by 1828, China's economic aggregate was surpassed by Britain.</p><p>Nearly 200 years from 1828 to now. Today, China's economic aggregate is 70% of that of the United States. If this development speed is maintained, China's economic aggregate should have the opportunity to surpass that of the United States around 2028 or 2030, that is, in 200 years, this country will become the world's largest economy.</p><p><b>So I think each of us is a son and a product of an era. Then confidence in oneself, first of all, comes from confidence in the growth of this country and the national economy.</b></p><p>If you think the elevator has started to go down and stopped running, can you outrun the elevator no matter how fast you run? If we are optimistic about the national economic development in the medium and long term, then our remaining question is what should we do? Do we have some constructive and rational ways to stand still and run forward in the elevator, or in the elevator, I take off my shoes and run forward faster than others.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/45beeaf0c418cf3a981fe39c9c445e4e","relate_stocks":{"399001":"深证成指","399006":"创业板指","000001.SH":"上证指数"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1104243150","content_text":"4月16日上午10点，国家统计局公布了2021年一季度宏观经济报告，其中有非常多数据，最引人关注的，就是今年一季度我们的GDP同比增长了18.3%。这个亮眼的数据，是建立在去年疫情暴发，中国经济遭遇毁灭性打击的背景下，一个强劲反弹。这个18.3%，到底意味着什么？就在报告发布两个小时后，吴晓波老师连线任泽平博士，在泽平宏观视频号和吴晓波频道视频号直播间一起，针对这些数据，进行了长达一个多小时的探讨。小巴这就为大家奉上他们本次对谈的精华内容。1、18.3%意味着什么吴晓波：2021年一季度GDP同比增长18.3%，这意味着什么？任泽平：看上去18.3%是很高的。其实我们计算一下，去年由于疫情，一季度增速是-6.8%，所以说它有一个基数原因。剔除掉这个原因，我们连续两年复合平均增速是5%。但它传递的一个信号是，从去年二季度复苏以来，到去年四季度，中国经济已经回到正常的增长水平了。第二个点是中国在这一次抗击疫情和经济复苏方面，真实地走在了全球前面。第三个，就是这种经济复苏对政策的影响和对股市的影响。我们先来说对政策的影响。从去年二季度经济复苏以后，尤其是在今年去年四季度，我们经济增速就回到6%以上了。这时候，我们的货币政策发生了调整，从原来的宽松到所谓的货币政策正常化。这就是为什么我在去年底讲通胀预期，今年年初说流动性拐点。更重要的是A股的市场风格发生了切换。流动性拐点出来以后，整个市场从原来的高估值板块切换到了周期品涨价受益品、低估值板块和受益于全球贸易复苏的板块，这跟之前我们所说的大的逻辑是一脉相承的。但这里还有一个问题值得注意。现在中国和美国不在一个轨道上。在复苏方面，中国经济领先于美国经济三个季度，美国经济实际上从今年年初才开始复苏。我们是处于货币政策正常化的过程当中，而美国因为刚开始复苏，所以它对货币政策宽松的诉求还是非常强烈的。这就是为什么我们的股市风格切换甚至有了一轮调整，但是美股还在创新高。背后的原因就是经济复苏的周期不一样，各自货币政策的松紧程度也不一样。总的来说，经济复苏的成绩还是非常靓丽的。我觉得这个数据客观讲还是对过去一年在各个抗疫战线上做出贡献的，我们的企业、包括我们医学界人士的一次致敬。吴晓波：你最早提出通胀预期和流动性拐点这两个宏观判断，提出的时候还在学界内引起了很大的一个争议。我想知道，你对去年这个通胀预期的判断是建立在怎么样的一个数据模型上？任泽平：这个框架基于的是所谓的经济周期。经济周期一般分为四个阶段：衰退、复苏、过热、滞胀，然后再衰退、复苏、过热、滞胀。衰退实际上是从2019年的下半年到疫情暴发，就存在非常明显的衰退。然后从二季度到四季度，它就复苏了。但是到了去年四季度以后，经济回归到了正常的水平，然后再演化下去，肯定就是我们进入到一个通胀和过热的阶段，大致在去年底到今年上半年，所以我们做出了这样的一个判断。2、CPI已不能反映老百姓生活吴晓波：我挑战你一下。你提到通胀预期，但是我们从一季度的宏观经济数据中看到，3月份全国居民消费价格（CPI）同比上涨了0.4%，2月份下降了0.2%，环比下降0.5%。但是，我们看到大宗商品价格，一些白电也就是冰箱空调洗衣机，过去一个季度里面涨了10%左右；电影票去年是40块钱一张，现在有的电影院涨到了80块甚至100块；床垫价格跟去年比涨了5%~6%。我很好奇，为什么老百姓感知到了商品价格的上涨，但是在国家统计局这个数据告诉我们说全国居民消费价格同比上涨只有0.4%，为什么会有那么大的差异？任泽平：这是一个好问题，为什么CPI只有零点几？现在大家都普遍感觉，说事实上不可能只有这么点。其实我们感觉到的，是除了猪肉没有涨，其他都在涨。吴晓波：今年一季度，猪肉产量增长31.9%，猪肉产量大规模增长，但猪肉价格下降了12.5%。任泽平：我给大家简单解释一下，因为正好我们这一轮通胀和猪周期是错位的。2019年，我当时提出一句话，叫“拿掉猪以后都是通缩”。因为当时经济不好，就猪价在涨，其他的都还好。吴晓波：当时CPI大概达到百分之三点几到四左右，然后你就提了这个观点，把猪去掉以后，实际上CPI是到零点几左右，甚至还是负增长的。任泽平：是的，正好因为2020年，猪肉价格在下跌，因此今年是典型的“拿掉猪以后都是通胀”，你会发现除了猪肉不涨，其他都在涨。大宗商品价格在涨、房价在涨、原油价格在涨，还有大家未来的装修成本也会涨，因为最近钢铁和铜都在上涨。然后我们再来看PPI，就是我们工业品价格指数。工业品价格指数3月份是涨到了4.4%，3%是警戒线，它已经涨到了4.4%了。吴晓波：4.4%涨得很厉害，3月份的同比上涨4.4%，比2月份扩大了2.7个百分点。你估计二季度的工业产品价格会怎么样？任泽平：我估计二季度、三季度会继续上涨。吴晓波：所以不是个好消息。任泽平：不是个好消息。二季度为什么会继续上涨？一个是经济复苏的共振，全球、欧美、中国，包括日本。还有美国让美元不负责任地流动性泛滥，它推出了一个3万亿美元的基建刺激计划，要和中国在新基建领域进行竞争，但钱从哪里来，肯定大部分通过超发货币。说回刚才的话题，过去这几年，猪肉对于CPI的影响太大了，但是比如说，比较有代表性的，住房价格指数没有拉进来。CPI叫居民消费品价格指数，就是居民支出的一篮子。在居民支出里面，咱们坦率地讲，吃猪肉能吃多少？但是如房租等其他的支出占比是越来越高了。所以CPI的指标越来越不能够反映老百姓真实体验到的通胀。因此要尊重客观情况，把猪的权重稍微降一降，然后把居住类的、包括老百姓现在最新的消费篮子里面权重比较大的提一提，这样的话我们看经济形势也好，货币政策的调控也好，能够看得更精准一点。吴晓波：所有的宏观经济数据都是建立在模型基础上的。那如果这个模型出了问题的话，你最终所有导出的数据都会出问题。任泽平：晓波说得对。比如说我今年CPI只上涨了0.4%，如果按照标准，0.4%在中国属于通缩，就不叫通胀了，那么怎么办？肯定今年要通过发货币继续刺激，而一旦货币刺激那麻烦了，再刺激那都上天了。吴晓波：你今年年初提出流动性拐点，提出来的时候也是有很多的争议，这个拐点又是怎么被判断出来的？任泽平：既然我们在去年已经看到了所谓通胀预期要起来了，那么从货币政策的角度，因为它要逆周期调节，那么随着经济的复苏，随着通胀起来以后，货币政策就不能再过度宽松了，否则会引发更严重的通胀，甚至经济过热等。所以作为一个负责任的货币当局，它是有责任在今年初把货币政策正常化的，实际上，我们最后记录到，连续两个月M2、社融增速都是下来的。3、人民币稳定是国家对老百姓负责吴晓波：我请教一个问题，在美国政府如今这么大撒钱的情况下，我们中国的人民币政策和货币政策会出现什么样的情况？任泽平：一个就是人民币升值。因为我们没有超发货币，因此保持住了币值的稳定。超发货币的一方，肯定贬值，印少的一方升值。第二个，会有资金流入的趋势。从去年以来，还有很多资金流入到我们国家。吴晓波：去年中国的外资引入是第一次超过美国，成为全球第一大的外资引进国。任泽平：道理很简单，持有美元是一个贬值资产，持有人民币是一个升值资产，所以说从资产配置的角度，让很多投资者愿意持有升值资产，就是人民币。加上中国去年疫情控制得好，所以说在全球都不能进行投资、恢复生产的情况下，只有中国具备这个条件。还有一个我觉得很重要的一点就是国家、政府和国家的央行一定要对老百姓负责。我们的货币政策正常化，按照货币当局讲就是要保持币值的稳定。币值的稳定它在国际场合上是一种说法，但对内部来说，那不就是我们老百姓口袋里的资产，现金流资产能够不被贬值，对吧？能够不被稀释得过多。像美国它过去这一年无上限地超发货币，除了稀释了像中国、日本、中东、全世界的外汇储备之外，其实也牺牲了自己老百姓的现金资产，是很不负责任的。这就是为什么美国民粹主义、逆全球化、占领华尔街运动，这些思潮会盛行。我认为它表面上是货币超发，实际上是货币超发带来的社会阶层、社会财富差距的拉大，以及社会思潮的动荡。4、房价会越来越分化吴晓波：在刚刚公布的一季度数据报告中，关于房地产有三个数据，我给大家先念一下。房地产开发投资同比增长25.6%，全国商品房销售面积同比增长63.8%，商品房的销售额同比增长88.5%，就是销售额增长最快，说明房价还在涨。我近期还观察到一个现象，现在大型城市的那些所谓豪宅或者酒店式公寓，最近涨得非常快。有一个数据，2020年全中国1000万以上单价的房子一共是卖掉了3万套，算一下大概四五千亿，这3万套中，北上广深占到2万套，2万套中的上海占了1万套。那么这就面临一个问题，货币在不断地超发，房地产的投资也在不断地增加，你怎么看房价？任泽平：我觉得是这样对于房地产还有房价，未来大家就记住一个词叫“分化”。大家知道，我是在房地产领域提出过一个分析框架，叫：“房地产，长期看人口，中期看土地，短期看金融”。放在这样的框架下来讲来看当前以及未来中国的房地产市场，这些现象我觉得是不稀奇的。其实城镇化分为两个阶段，第一个是人口从农村到城市，一二三四五六线城市人口普涨，所以房价也是普涨。但是当城镇化率在到达60%左右或者60%以上以后，那么基本就处于一个分化的格局。人口从低能级城市包括农村和三四线城市，往都市圈和城市群流入。所以，不仅是过去这两年，未来10年、20年，大家就会看到这种分化，这在美国、日本都发生过。吴晓波：我记得在2013年、2014年当年做过一个调研，在江苏地区，比如说无锡、苏州、常州它的房价在涨，边上有个地级市叫做镇江，镇江连续11年，人口是净流出的，所以它的房价是停滞的。因此，这个分化其实在六七年前就已经发生了，按刚才泽平老师讲的，未来这种分化景象会越来越严重，年轻人会向超级城市或者一个大型城市圈聚集，然后大城市会产生一个巨大的虹吸现象。一些城市如果它的产业经济不健康，没有很好的社会保障制度，没有很好的创业氛围，或者房价还处在一个比较高的情况下，那就会倒逼年轻人流出。5、出口超预期是中国制造业的胜利吴晓波：相对来讲，人民币处在一个被动升值的状态，这个状态其实是对出口不利的，但是我们看到一季度的数据：一季度货物进出口总额同比增长29.2%，出口商品同比增长38.7%，进口增长19.3%。也就是我们的出口是进口的一倍，然后贸易顺差7593亿元。总的来说一季度的出口是超预期的，你怎么看这个现象？任泽平：因为在过去的一年，人民币升值确实对我们出口是一个负面作用，但是我们还有很多的正面作用抵消了它的负面作用。▶▷第一，在过去的长达一年的时间，世界上绝大部分的制造业大国都无法恢复正常生产，比如德国、美国，只有中国具备正常恢复生产的能力，所以实际上是中国在保障全球的供应。▶▷第二，中国制造业的强大竞争力。这些年通过技术的迭代，包括我们通过机器替代劳工，包括各种降低成本，很好地保持了我们制造业强大的竞争力。▶▷第三，我觉得跟晓波兄长期倡导的一个问题有关，新国货的崛起。吴晓波：我再补充两点。第一点是去年疫情以后，中国是全球第一制造业大国，所以我们的供应链没有断，因为我们最早控制了疫情，中国的整个生产系统仍然在很完整地复苏。去年4月份我开始跑中国的第一家汽车工厂，4月8日武汉还没有开城，但是3月份的时候武汉的汽车工厂就已经开始复工了。到了6月份的时候，全中国所有的整车公司的产能都已经恢复到去年同期的80%。所以我觉得，供应链完整是中国给这一轮全球贸易和全球制造中的一个重大的一个福利。第二点，就是你刚才讲的新国货问题。去年我去调研，然后发现原来中国出口都是代工，就是都用人家的品牌，如今出口的中国大量商品，都有了自己的品牌。今天在全中国有大概几万个独立品牌的商品在全球做销售。这些品牌，通过自己价廉物美的方式，实现了一次新的品牌性的突袭，这个是中国商品能够出口超预期的一个最根本的原因：我们的竞争力，我们的渠道能力，我们的品牌打造能力，在这一轮的新冠疫情下都经受住了考验。6、把握股市风格的切换吴晓波：怎么看现在一季度股市的下跌，你对后市有什么判断？任泽平：我主要讲讲市场的风格。对于今年，如果说我们持续地在通胀预期和流动性拐点这样一个大的趋势上，那么大家要留意的是，今年市场的风格还是会出现比较明显的变化。原来那些高估值的板块，因为在利率上升的背景下，它可能还是承受压力的，因为利率上升是杀估值的；但是因为通胀预期起来了，那么对于周期品，对于涨价受益的，对受益于全球贸易复苏的，我认为应该是利好的。至于什么碳中和、碳达峰，那都是一些配合性的条件，都是一些催化剂，不改变大方向。这是我对今年股市的看法：结构性的机会与结构性的风险并存。吴晓波：那对一般的股民、一般的基民来说，应该怎么办呢？任泽平：把握住市场风格的这种切换。就是你在挑选基金经理的时候，也要挑选那些比如说能够很快地杀伐决断，做出风格切换的人，或者说擅长做我刚才讲的那几个受益板块的基金经理。吴晓波：这里我要提醒下大家，中国的股民有一个毛病叫做多动症：买股票每天去看，涨也慌跌也慌；好了，现在买基金了，基民也有多动症，他们专业能力明明是拜托给了那些基金经理，但是还是每天去看，去看基金涨了还是跌了。我们有个数据，美国人买一个基金，它的调仓周期是16个月，中国的是两个月，差8倍左右。资本市场在趋于理性化、产业在趋于理性化，我们的投资理念也要趋于理性化。多动症是我们小时候读小学的时候常犯的毛病，如果你读大学了，还多动症，这不是很麻烦的一件事情吗？7、2021年接下来怎么看吴晓波：你对未来怎么看？对我们的企业经营者、一般的新中产家庭来说，你有什么建议？任泽平：我有几个判断。第一个从短期来说，有可能一季度是中国经济的一个顶部，或者进入一个顶部区间，而二季度、三季度的增速有可能会逐步地放缓。因为不可能都是18.3%，后面中国经济逐步回归正常化，疫情这个基数效应将会逐渐消退。不过对这种放缓大家也不用过度担忧，比如从百分之十八点几未来降到10%、降到8%、降到6%很正常。中国经济未来潜在增长率就是5%~6%左右。第二个判断，就是中国的货币当局还是比较负责任的，相对而言其实也货币超发了，但是还好，所以人民币资产还是相对比较保值的。第三个，站在更长期的角度，包括像这次应对疫情，包括之前应对中美贸易摩擦，我觉得中国应对得还是比较好的。因为它主要还是通过改革的方式来应对。尤其是中国这一轮增长的趋势，或者说大家讲的国运，确实还在上升的势头上。所以，对于我们企业家，对我们老百姓，我觉得要对中国的经济增长、中国的发展有信心。因为谁也无法选择战线，而且本身我们阵营就很好，我们将有幸见证在未来10年中国超过美国成为世界第一大经济体。吴晓波：这边讲到了国运。我们在做经济史研究中有一个数据，就是中国在农耕文明时期，很长一段时间里是全球第一大经济体，但是到了1828年的时候，中国的经济总量被英国超越。1828年到现在将近200年。今天中国的经济总量是美国的70%，如果保持这样的发展速度，中国经济总量应该会在2028年或者2030年左右有机会超过美国，也就是整整200年后，这个国家将成为全球第一大经济体。所以我觉得我们每个人都是一个时代的儿子，都是一个时代的产物。然后对自己的信心，首先是来自对这个国家、对国民经济的成长的一个信心。如果你认为电梯已经开始下行了、已经不跑了，你跑得再快能跑得过电梯吗？如果在中长期内我们看好国家经济发展的话，那么我们剩下来的问题是我们应该怎么办，我们有没有一些建设性、理性的方式能够在电梯里面我站着不动，也能往前跑，或者是在电梯里面我还抓紧地脱了鞋子往前跑，跑得比别人更快一点。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"399001":0.9,"399006":0.9,"000001.SH":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1193,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":375372866,"gmtCreate":1619312682955,"gmtModify":1704722251902,"author":{"id":"3568196683280287","authorId":"3568196683280287","name":"杨胜胜","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/39b07ed709bc0fdb73851119781eaa64","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3568196683280287","authorIdStr":"3568196683280287"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/375372866","repostId":"1189556280","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1235,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":375915083,"gmtCreate":1619275872142,"gmtModify":1704722044202,"author":{"id":"3568196683280287","authorId":"3568196683280287","name":"杨胜胜","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/39b07ed709bc0fdb73851119781eaa64","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3568196683280287","authorIdStr":"3568196683280287"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"??","listText":"??","text":"??","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/375915083","repostId":"1170368925","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":752,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":376680219,"gmtCreate":1619109213131,"gmtModify":1704719859730,"author":{"id":"3568196683280287","authorId":"3568196683280287","name":"杨胜胜","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/39b07ed709bc0fdb73851119781eaa64","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3568196683280287","authorIdStr":"3568196683280287"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"???","listText":"???","text":"???","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/376680219","repostId":"2129387412","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1864,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":378856004,"gmtCreate":1619017380408,"gmtModify":1704718416004,"author":{"id":"3568196683280287","authorId":"3568196683280287","name":"杨胜胜","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/39b07ed709bc0fdb73851119781eaa64","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3568196683280287","authorIdStr":"3568196683280287"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/378856004","repostId":"1161095162","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1161095162","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1618973932,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1161095162?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-04-21 10:58","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Hillhouse Capital or Tiger Fund, who is better at speculating in Chinese concept stocks?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1161095162","media":"投中网","summary":"2020年高瓴投资中概股的收益约45亿美元，老虎的收益约48亿美元，两家PE炒股的秘诀是什么？\n\n老虎和高瓴，已经成为最会炒中概股的两家PE。\n老虎环球基金2020年赚了100多亿美元，京东、拼多多两","content":"<p><b>In 2020, Hillhouse's income from investing in Chinese concept stocks will be about 4.5 billion US dollars, and Tiger's income will be about 4.8 billion US dollars. What is the secret of the two PE stock trading?</b>Tiger and Hillhouse have become the two PEs that are best at speculating in Chinese concept stocks.</p><p>Tiger Global Fund earned more than $10 billion in 2020,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">JD.com</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">Pinduoduo</a>Two stocks earned Tiger $4.2 billion; As of the end of 2020, Hillhouse Capital's position in U.S. stocks has reached US $12.6 billion, and Chinese concept stocks brought approximately US $4.5 billion to Hillhouse last year.</p><p>When it comes to speculating in Chinese concept stocks, Tiger and Hillhouse have many similar operations: such as heavy positions<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">JD.com</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">Pinduoduo</a>And Alibaba, after the outbreak of the epidemic, increased their positions in JD.com and Pinduoduo, and successively reduced their holdings of new energy vehicle stocks in the fourth quarter, etc.; However, after careful analysis, the styles of the two are obviously different. For example, Hillhouse prefers to do band operations, while Tiger prefers to hold for a long time; Hillhouse covers a wider range, and Tiger's holdings are concentrated in e-commerce, education, streaming media and other fields that it is familiar with...</p><p>First of all, I would like to emphasize that the purpose of this article is to summarize the characteristics of Hillhouse and Tiger stock speculation, rather than define all the investment strategies of the two PEs. Hillhouse's asset management scale is nearly 80 billion US dollars, and its U.S. stock position only accounts for 1/7 of the asset portfolio; Although Tiger has significantly increased the proportion of U.S. stocks in its asset portfolio in 2020, entering the market in the private equity stage and holding it for a long time after the company's listing is the secret of Tiger Global Fund's long-term prosperity since its establishment 17 years ago.</p><p><b>Hillhouse, Tiger, who is the PE who is best at speculating in Chinese concept stocks?</b></p><p>First, let's sort out the earnings of Hillhouse and Tiger on Chinese concept stocks in 2020.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a0d3e0db1c8cdcf3e3d65f30aa474cf4\" tg-width=\"657\" tg-height=\"1105\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Let's look at Hillhouse first, as shown in the table above,<b>In 2020, Hillhouse Capital has successively held 37 Chinese concept stocks, with a total annual income of approximately US $4.5 billion.</b></p><p>In Hillhouse's holdings portfolio, the five stocks with the highest returns are Pinduoduo, JD.com,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba</a>，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BGNE\">BeiGene</a>And<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">Bilibili</a>, the annual revenue was US $1.432 billion, US $823 million, US $719 million, US $507 million and US $409 million respectively.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7d647c9926c7b5548e830b4326f1ad70\" tg-width=\"577\" tg-height=\"822\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Looking at the tiger again, as shown in the table above,<b>In 2020, Tiger held 25 Chinese concept stocks successively, with a total annual income of US $4.8 billion.</b>It accounted for 46% of Tiger Global Fund's total earnings in 2020 (approximately US $10.4 billion).</p><p>In Tiger's portfolio of Chinese concept stocks, JD.com, Pinduoduo,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba</a>The return is the highest. The total return of the three stocks combined is as high as US $4.71 billion, accounting for 99% of the returns of all Chinese concept stocks in 2020.</p><p>At first glance, Hillhouse and Tiger have many similarities in terms of income or position, but analyzing the investment behavior behind the two, we can find that there are obvious differences between Hillhouse and Tiger in speculating in Chinese concept stocks.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/38e60a0d09f7044f0a41594bddaf7ea0\" tg-width=\"742\" tg-height=\"822\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>The first is the difference in stock selection.</b></p><p>Tiger's choice of Chinese concept stocks is basically a continuation of its investment strategy in the PE sector. As shown in the figure above, as of the fourth quarter of 2020, Tiger's Chinese concept stock positions accounted for about 25% of its U.S. stock positions. It is the stock with the highest position held by Tiger Global Fund, accounting for 11.6% of Tiger's total U.S. stock positions.</p><p>In addition to e-commerce, the fields in which Tiger invests the most are education (6) and streaming media (5). In addition, Tiger also participates in industries such as data centers and new energy vehicles that are more popular in 2020.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/81b095caa7c0f8bb035d79124b368c38\" tg-width=\"742\" tg-height=\"1142\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In contrast, Hillhouse has a wider range of coverage. As of Q4 2020, Hillhouse's Chinese concept stock positions totaled US $7.13 billion, accounting for approximately 57% of Hillhouse's total US stock positions, of which Pinduoduo,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06160\">BeiGene</a>, JD.com holds more than US $1 billion in three stocks.</p><p>From the perspective of industry classification, e-commerce is also Hillhouse's favorite industry. In addition to the three giants JD.com, Alibaba and Pinduoduo, Hillhouse also holds<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MOGU\">Mushroom Street</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VIPS\">Vipshop</a>(cleared),<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UXIN\">Youxin</a>Isovertical e-commerce. In addition, pharmaceuticals is also a key industry for Hillhouse. In 2020, Hillhouse successively invested in 6 Chinese concept stock pharmaceutical companies. In addition to Chinese concept stocks, Hillhouse also invested in nearly 30 European and American medical and health companies in 2020.</p><p>In addition to the key layout of e-commerce, medical care, and education industries, other popular Chinese concept stocks Hillhouse are also involved, from station B,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GDS\">GDS</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MNSO\">MINISO</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/API\">Acoustic net</a>, to<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BEKE\">Shells</a>Looking for a house,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HTHT\">Huazhu</a>Group and three new car-making forces, popular Chinese concept stocks in 2020, except for the end of the year<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">Baidu</a>Hillhouse didn't miss it.</p><p>Another manifestation of Hillhouse's strong stock selection ability is its ability to \"avoid pitfalls\". The two biggest thunders in Chinese concept stocks in 2020 are Ruixing and Danke. These two stocks were also popular Chinese concept stocks before, but Hillhouse is perfect. avoid. Except because<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IQ\">IQiyi</a>Hillhouse lost about US $100 million in its position, and Hillhouse hardly lost much money in speculating in Chinese concept stocks in 2020.</p><p><b>The second point is the difference in buying strategy.</b></p><p>Tiger rarely buys Chinese concept stocks in the secondary market, and most of its positions are investments completed in the private equity stage. The only exception is e-commerce. In 2020, Tiger will only buy stocks of JD.com, Alibaba, and Pinduoduo in the secondary market. The e-commerce industry is also the field that Tiger is most familiar with. Whether it is investing in Dangdang Excellence in the early years or investing in JD.com to become famous in World War I, Chinese e-commerce can be said to be the gantry for Tiger to become the top PE.</p><p>Hillhouse also got top PE tickets through JD.com's case, but speculation in Chinese concept stocks is not limited to e-commerce. In 2020, Hillhouse has bought at least 14 Chinese concept stocks in the secondary market, Perfect Diary,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GDS\">GDS</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">Nio</a>Hillhouse, a few popular Chinese concept stocks in 2020, has bought automobiles in the secondary market and participated as cornerstone investors<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">Li Auto</a>And<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BEKE\">Shells</a>The \"new\" of looking for a house.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0629fe2e85c24d191c22721db6d0e861\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"649\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>It is also worth mentioning the investment in Bilibili. The stock price of Bilibili began to take off after the New Year's Eve party in 2019. Hillhouse was not an early investor in Bilibili. It did not begin to increase its holdings in Bilibili until Q4 of 2020. Public information There is no news that Bilibili introduced Hillhouse's strategic investment, 6 that means that Hillhouse is most likely to buy Bilibili stocks in the secondary market.</p><p>In Q4 of 2018, I bought 2 million shares, and in the first three quarters of 2019, I bought 1.3 million, 4.5 million and 4.8 million shares respectively. Hillhouse's total holding cost was less than US $180 million, but it earned nearly US $650 million, with a return of as high as 260%, earning more than most VCs who bet on station B.</p><p><b>The third point is the difference in investment styles.</b></p><p>Tiger's investment style in Chinese concept stocks is relatively stable. For JD.com, Pinduoduo, Alibaba,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EDU\">New Oriental</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TAL\">TAL</a>For these heavily held Chinese concept stocks, whether Tiger increases or decreases its holdings, the magnitude is not large each time. For example, in 2020Q1, the proportion of reductions in JD.com was about 4%, in 2020Q2, the proportion of increases in holdings was about 2%, and in Q4, the holdings were reduced<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EDU\">New Oriental</a>, the proportion does not exceed 15%.</p><p>Hillhouse likes band operation, and even \"All in\" at every turn. For example, JD.com, Hillhouse first reduced its holdings by 30% in Q2, directly increased its positions by 100% in Q3, and then reduced its holdings by nearly 20% in Q4. Not only is the operation frequent, but the proportion of blessings and reductions in each quarter also far exceeds that of Tiger. In addition, in the fourth quarter of last year, Hillhouse directly cleared the stocks of Future, XPeng, and Ideal for the new car-making forces at a high point. In 2020, Hillhouse cleared a total of 13 Chinese concept stocks, of which 5 stocks were bought during the year.</p><p><b>Finally, there is a particularly interesting phenomenon, that is, for<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IQ\">IQiyi</a>Different treatment of Alibaba and Alibaba stocks.</b></p><p>Ali and iQiyi are both stocks that Tiger and Hillhouse are heavily held. At the beginning of 2020, Hillhouse held nearly 2 million Ali shares (worth about 400 million US dollars) and 12 million iQiyi shares (worth about 400 million US dollars) respectively. Tiger holds 3.5 million Ali shares (about 700 million US dollars) and 1 million iQiyi shares (worth about 21 million US dollars) respectively.</p><p>Both companies encountered trouble in 2020. At the beginning of the year, iQiyi was attacked by short-selling institutions, and later it was reported that it was investigated by sec; Alibaba was in trouble at the end of the year due to domestic antitrust investigations and the failure of Ant to go public.</p><p>Tiger cleared iQiyi's stock in Q2, but never reduced its holdings of Ali's stock, which even led to a decrease in Ali's stock income by about US $300 million in Q4 in 2020; Hillhouse was decisive in the matter of Ali. It directly liquidated Ali's shares in Q4, but did not \"abandon\" iQiyi. It only reduced its holdings by about 8 million shares in Q3 and Q4, which is about 1/6 of its holdings.</p><p>Faced with the same crisis and different companies, Tiger and Hillhouse have made two diametrically opposite operations, and the things behind them are worthy of our careful consideration.</p><p><b>Cheng is also JD.com, and how much Cheng is also JD.com</b></p><p>Finally, let's talk about Tiger and Hillhouse's investments in JD.com.</p><p>Both Hillhouse and Tiger became famous because of JD.com's World War I, and thus became one of the top PEs in the world. Tiger, which launched the first phase of private equity fundraising in 2003, completed a total of about US $6 billion in fundraising in the next 11 years. After JD.com went public in 2014, Tiger completed nearly US $18 billion in fundraising in 7 years, three times that of the previous 11 years.</p><p>The same is true for Hillhouse. When Zhang Lei established Hillhouse Capital in 2005, he only got US $20 million in seeds provided by David Swenson and others. After JD.com went public in 2014, Hillhouse's fundraising accelerated. By 2020, the asset management scale has exceeded 500 billion yuan (about 76 billion US dollars).</p><p>Let's first review Tiger and Hillhouse's investments in JD.com before they went public.</p><p>Hillhouse invested in JD.com's Series C financing in 2010. According to media reports, the total investment was US $300 million, of which US $65 million was invested in the form of convertible bonds. This part of the convertible bonds was converted into 86 million ordinary shares in 2012. Together with the 230 million C-series preferred shares shares acquired in the C round, Hillhouse held a total of 319 million ordinary shares (equivalent to 159 million ADS) after its listing on JD.com.</p><p>Tiger invested in JD.com several times between 2010 and 2012, including US $75 million in JD.com in 2012. According to the prospectus, Tiger held 445 million ordinary shares (equivalent to 222 million ADS) of JD.com before listing. However, after JD.com went public, Tiger distributed most of its shares to LP. By the end of 2014, only 5 million shares belonging to Tiger Global Fund were left.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fcb64858e3a35393daed3822f4349eaa\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"696\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>As shown in the figure above, at the end of 2014, Hillhouse still held 152 million shares of JD.com. In 2015, Hillhouse began to slowly reduce its holdings of JD.com shares. In 2015, it reduced its holdings by about 30 million shares, making a profit of over 800 million US dollars. In 2016, Hillhouse further accelerated the reduction of holdings. By Q2 of 2018, it had reduced its holdings to about 21 million shares, with a profit of about 3.4 billion US dollars during the period. At this time, the return of Hillhouse's investment in JD.com has reached nearly 5 billion US dollars.</p><p>In 2018, due to the impact of the Liu Qiangdong Mingzhou incident, JD.com's stock price began to enter a long period of stagnation. At this time, Hillhouse also slowed down its reduction of holdings. In 2019, it also bought a small amount of JD.com shares in two quarters.</p><p>By the beginning of 2020, Hillhouse's JD.com shares had dropped to 12 million shares, with a total market value of approximately US $420 million. Because the epidemic accelerated the recovery of performance, JD.com's stock price skyrocketed in 2020. Hillhouse also invested more than US $500 million to buy JD.com shares in Q2 of 2020. In the end, Hillhouse earned about US $800 million in JD.com shares in 2020.</p><p>Tiger's operation is just the opposite of JD.COM. After listing, Tiger distributed most of its shares to LP, leaving only 5 million shares at the end of 2014. But since then, Tiger has begun to increase its holdings of JD.com. In Q1 and Q2 of 2015, Tiger invested nearly US $2 billion, and successively bought 16 million and 50 million JD.com shares through its funds.</p><p>In the following years, Tiger reduced its holdings of JD.com shares at a very slow rate. By 2018Q2, its holdings dropped to 40 million shares, a reduction of about 40% (Hillhouse had already reduced its holdings by nearly 90% during the same period). After the Mingzhou incident in 2018, Tiger chose to further increase its holdings of JD.com, and bought nearly 16 million JD.com shares at a consideration of about US $500 million in the next two quarters.</p><p>By the beginning of 2020, Tiger held 53 million shares of JD.com. During this year, JD.com, whose stock price more than doubled, earned Tiger nearly US $2.8 billion.</p><p>When JD.com went public, Hillhouse's return was about US $3 billion based on the issue price. Since then, through long-term holding, Hillhouse has earned an additional US $2.5 billion on JD.com; After Tiger went public in JD.COM, it distributed shares worth US $4.2 billion to LPs (calculated according to the issue price). After seven years of speculation in JD.COM shares, Tiger itself made another US $3.1 billion.</p>","source":"tzw","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Hillhouse Capital or Tiger Fund, who is better at speculating in Chinese concept stocks?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHillhouse Capital or Tiger Fund, who is better at speculating in Chinese concept stocks?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">投中网</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-04-21 10:58</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>In 2020, Hillhouse's income from investing in Chinese concept stocks will be about 4.5 billion US dollars, and Tiger's income will be about 4.8 billion US dollars. What is the secret of the two PE stock trading?</b>Tiger and Hillhouse have become the two PEs that are best at speculating in Chinese concept stocks.</p><p>Tiger Global Fund earned more than $10 billion in 2020,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">JD.com</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">Pinduoduo</a>Two stocks earned Tiger $4.2 billion; As of the end of 2020, Hillhouse Capital's position in U.S. stocks has reached US $12.6 billion, and Chinese concept stocks brought approximately US $4.5 billion to Hillhouse last year.</p><p>When it comes to speculating in Chinese concept stocks, Tiger and Hillhouse have many similar operations: such as heavy positions<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">JD.com</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">Pinduoduo</a>And Alibaba, after the outbreak of the epidemic, increased their positions in JD.com and Pinduoduo, and successively reduced their holdings of new energy vehicle stocks in the fourth quarter, etc.; However, after careful analysis, the styles of the two are obviously different. For example, Hillhouse prefers to do band operations, while Tiger prefers to hold for a long time; Hillhouse covers a wider range, and Tiger's holdings are concentrated in e-commerce, education, streaming media and other fields that it is familiar with...</p><p>First of all, I would like to emphasize that the purpose of this article is to summarize the characteristics of Hillhouse and Tiger stock speculation, rather than define all the investment strategies of the two PEs. Hillhouse's asset management scale is nearly 80 billion US dollars, and its U.S. stock position only accounts for 1/7 of the asset portfolio; Although Tiger has significantly increased the proportion of U.S. stocks in its asset portfolio in 2020, entering the market in the private equity stage and holding it for a long time after the company's listing is the secret of Tiger Global Fund's long-term prosperity since its establishment 17 years ago.</p><p><b>Hillhouse, Tiger, who is the PE who is best at speculating in Chinese concept stocks?</b></p><p>First, let's sort out the earnings of Hillhouse and Tiger on Chinese concept stocks in 2020.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a0d3e0db1c8cdcf3e3d65f30aa474cf4\" tg-width=\"657\" tg-height=\"1105\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Let's look at Hillhouse first, as shown in the table above,<b>In 2020, Hillhouse Capital has successively held 37 Chinese concept stocks, with a total annual income of approximately US $4.5 billion.</b></p><p>In Hillhouse's holdings portfolio, the five stocks with the highest returns are Pinduoduo, JD.com,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba</a>，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BGNE\">BeiGene</a>And<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">Bilibili</a>, the annual revenue was US $1.432 billion, US $823 million, US $719 million, US $507 million and US $409 million respectively.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7d647c9926c7b5548e830b4326f1ad70\" tg-width=\"577\" tg-height=\"822\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Looking at the tiger again, as shown in the table above,<b>In 2020, Tiger held 25 Chinese concept stocks successively, with a total annual income of US $4.8 billion.</b>It accounted for 46% of Tiger Global Fund's total earnings in 2020 (approximately US $10.4 billion).</p><p>In Tiger's portfolio of Chinese concept stocks, JD.com, Pinduoduo,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba</a>The return is the highest. The total return of the three stocks combined is as high as US $4.71 billion, accounting for 99% of the returns of all Chinese concept stocks in 2020.</p><p>At first glance, Hillhouse and Tiger have many similarities in terms of income or position, but analyzing the investment behavior behind the two, we can find that there are obvious differences between Hillhouse and Tiger in speculating in Chinese concept stocks.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/38e60a0d09f7044f0a41594bddaf7ea0\" tg-width=\"742\" tg-height=\"822\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>The first is the difference in stock selection.</b></p><p>Tiger's choice of Chinese concept stocks is basically a continuation of its investment strategy in the PE sector. As shown in the figure above, as of the fourth quarter of 2020, Tiger's Chinese concept stock positions accounted for about 25% of its U.S. stock positions. It is the stock with the highest position held by Tiger Global Fund, accounting for 11.6% of Tiger's total U.S. stock positions.</p><p>In addition to e-commerce, the fields in which Tiger invests the most are education (6) and streaming media (5). In addition, Tiger also participates in industries such as data centers and new energy vehicles that are more popular in 2020.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/81b095caa7c0f8bb035d79124b368c38\" tg-width=\"742\" tg-height=\"1142\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In contrast, Hillhouse has a wider range of coverage. As of Q4 2020, Hillhouse's Chinese concept stock positions totaled US $7.13 billion, accounting for approximately 57% of Hillhouse's total US stock positions, of which Pinduoduo,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06160\">BeiGene</a>, JD.com holds more than US $1 billion in three stocks.</p><p>From the perspective of industry classification, e-commerce is also Hillhouse's favorite industry. In addition to the three giants JD.com, Alibaba and Pinduoduo, Hillhouse also holds<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MOGU\">Mushroom Street</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VIPS\">Vipshop</a>(cleared),<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UXIN\">Youxin</a>Isovertical e-commerce. In addition, pharmaceuticals is also a key industry for Hillhouse. In 2020, Hillhouse successively invested in 6 Chinese concept stock pharmaceutical companies. In addition to Chinese concept stocks, Hillhouse also invested in nearly 30 European and American medical and health companies in 2020.</p><p>In addition to the key layout of e-commerce, medical care, and education industries, other popular Chinese concept stocks Hillhouse are also involved, from station B,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GDS\">GDS</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MNSO\">MINISO</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/API\">Acoustic net</a>, to<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BEKE\">Shells</a>Looking for a house,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HTHT\">Huazhu</a>Group and three new car-making forces, popular Chinese concept stocks in 2020, except for the end of the year<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">Baidu</a>Hillhouse didn't miss it.</p><p>Another manifestation of Hillhouse's strong stock selection ability is its ability to \"avoid pitfalls\". The two biggest thunders in Chinese concept stocks in 2020 are Ruixing and Danke. These two stocks were also popular Chinese concept stocks before, but Hillhouse is perfect. avoid. Except because<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IQ\">IQiyi</a>Hillhouse lost about US $100 million in its position, and Hillhouse hardly lost much money in speculating in Chinese concept stocks in 2020.</p><p><b>The second point is the difference in buying strategy.</b></p><p>Tiger rarely buys Chinese concept stocks in the secondary market, and most of its positions are investments completed in the private equity stage. The only exception is e-commerce. In 2020, Tiger will only buy stocks of JD.com, Alibaba, and Pinduoduo in the secondary market. The e-commerce industry is also the field that Tiger is most familiar with. Whether it is investing in Dangdang Excellence in the early years or investing in JD.com to become famous in World War I, Chinese e-commerce can be said to be the gantry for Tiger to become the top PE.</p><p>Hillhouse also got top PE tickets through JD.com's case, but speculation in Chinese concept stocks is not limited to e-commerce. In 2020, Hillhouse has bought at least 14 Chinese concept stocks in the secondary market, Perfect Diary,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GDS\">GDS</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">Nio</a>Hillhouse, a few popular Chinese concept stocks in 2020, has bought automobiles in the secondary market and participated as cornerstone investors<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">Li Auto</a>And<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BEKE\">Shells</a>The \"new\" of looking for a house.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0629fe2e85c24d191c22721db6d0e861\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"649\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>It is also worth mentioning the investment in Bilibili. The stock price of Bilibili began to take off after the New Year's Eve party in 2019. Hillhouse was not an early investor in Bilibili. It did not begin to increase its holdings in Bilibili until Q4 of 2020. Public information There is no news that Bilibili introduced Hillhouse's strategic investment, 6 that means that Hillhouse is most likely to buy Bilibili stocks in the secondary market.</p><p>In Q4 of 2018, I bought 2 million shares, and in the first three quarters of 2019, I bought 1.3 million, 4.5 million and 4.8 million shares respectively. Hillhouse's total holding cost was less than US $180 million, but it earned nearly US $650 million, with a return of as high as 260%, earning more than most VCs who bet on station B.</p><p><b>The third point is the difference in investment styles.</b></p><p>Tiger's investment style in Chinese concept stocks is relatively stable. For JD.com, Pinduoduo, Alibaba,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EDU\">New Oriental</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TAL\">TAL</a>For these heavily held Chinese concept stocks, whether Tiger increases or decreases its holdings, the magnitude is not large each time. For example, in 2020Q1, the proportion of reductions in JD.com was about 4%, in 2020Q2, the proportion of increases in holdings was about 2%, and in Q4, the holdings were reduced<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EDU\">New Oriental</a>, the proportion does not exceed 15%.</p><p>Hillhouse likes band operation, and even \"All in\" at every turn. For example, JD.com, Hillhouse first reduced its holdings by 30% in Q2, directly increased its positions by 100% in Q3, and then reduced its holdings by nearly 20% in Q4. Not only is the operation frequent, but the proportion of blessings and reductions in each quarter also far exceeds that of Tiger. In addition, in the fourth quarter of last year, Hillhouse directly cleared the stocks of Future, XPeng, and Ideal for the new car-making forces at a high point. In 2020, Hillhouse cleared a total of 13 Chinese concept stocks, of which 5 stocks were bought during the year.</p><p><b>Finally, there is a particularly interesting phenomenon, that is, for<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IQ\">IQiyi</a>Different treatment of Alibaba and Alibaba stocks.</b></p><p>Ali and iQiyi are both stocks that Tiger and Hillhouse are heavily held. At the beginning of 2020, Hillhouse held nearly 2 million Ali shares (worth about 400 million US dollars) and 12 million iQiyi shares (worth about 400 million US dollars) respectively. Tiger holds 3.5 million Ali shares (about 700 million US dollars) and 1 million iQiyi shares (worth about 21 million US dollars) respectively.</p><p>Both companies encountered trouble in 2020. At the beginning of the year, iQiyi was attacked by short-selling institutions, and later it was reported that it was investigated by sec; Alibaba was in trouble at the end of the year due to domestic antitrust investigations and the failure of Ant to go public.</p><p>Tiger cleared iQiyi's stock in Q2, but never reduced its holdings of Ali's stock, which even led to a decrease in Ali's stock income by about US $300 million in Q4 in 2020; Hillhouse was decisive in the matter of Ali. It directly liquidated Ali's shares in Q4, but did not \"abandon\" iQiyi. It only reduced its holdings by about 8 million shares in Q3 and Q4, which is about 1/6 of its holdings.</p><p>Faced with the same crisis and different companies, Tiger and Hillhouse have made two diametrically opposite operations, and the things behind them are worthy of our careful consideration.</p><p><b>Cheng is also JD.com, and how much Cheng is also JD.com</b></p><p>Finally, let's talk about Tiger and Hillhouse's investments in JD.com.</p><p>Both Hillhouse and Tiger became famous because of JD.com's World War I, and thus became one of the top PEs in the world. Tiger, which launched the first phase of private equity fundraising in 2003, completed a total of about US $6 billion in fundraising in the next 11 years. After JD.com went public in 2014, Tiger completed nearly US $18 billion in fundraising in 7 years, three times that of the previous 11 years.</p><p>The same is true for Hillhouse. When Zhang Lei established Hillhouse Capital in 2005, he only got US $20 million in seeds provided by David Swenson and others. After JD.com went public in 2014, Hillhouse's fundraising accelerated. By 2020, the asset management scale has exceeded 500 billion yuan (about 76 billion US dollars).</p><p>Let's first review Tiger and Hillhouse's investments in JD.com before they went public.</p><p>Hillhouse invested in JD.com's Series C financing in 2010. According to media reports, the total investment was US $300 million, of which US $65 million was invested in the form of convertible bonds. This part of the convertible bonds was converted into 86 million ordinary shares in 2012. Together with the 230 million C-series preferred shares shares acquired in the C round, Hillhouse held a total of 319 million ordinary shares (equivalent to 159 million ADS) after its listing on JD.com.</p><p>Tiger invested in JD.com several times between 2010 and 2012, including US $75 million in JD.com in 2012. According to the prospectus, Tiger held 445 million ordinary shares (equivalent to 222 million ADS) of JD.com before listing. However, after JD.com went public, Tiger distributed most of its shares to LP. By the end of 2014, only 5 million shares belonging to Tiger Global Fund were left.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fcb64858e3a35393daed3822f4349eaa\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"696\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>As shown in the figure above, at the end of 2014, Hillhouse still held 152 million shares of JD.com. In 2015, Hillhouse began to slowly reduce its holdings of JD.com shares. In 2015, it reduced its holdings by about 30 million shares, making a profit of over 800 million US dollars. In 2016, Hillhouse further accelerated the reduction of holdings. By Q2 of 2018, it had reduced its holdings to about 21 million shares, with a profit of about 3.4 billion US dollars during the period. At this time, the return of Hillhouse's investment in JD.com has reached nearly 5 billion US dollars.</p><p>In 2018, due to the impact of the Liu Qiangdong Mingzhou incident, JD.com's stock price began to enter a long period of stagnation. At this time, Hillhouse also slowed down its reduction of holdings. In 2019, it also bought a small amount of JD.com shares in two quarters.</p><p>By the beginning of 2020, Hillhouse's JD.com shares had dropped to 12 million shares, with a total market value of approximately US $420 million. Because the epidemic accelerated the recovery of performance, JD.com's stock price skyrocketed in 2020. Hillhouse also invested more than US $500 million to buy JD.com shares in Q2 of 2020. In the end, Hillhouse earned about US $800 million in JD.com shares in 2020.</p><p>Tiger's operation is just the opposite of JD.COM. After listing, Tiger distributed most of its shares to LP, leaving only 5 million shares at the end of 2014. But since then, Tiger has begun to increase its holdings of JD.com. In Q1 and Q2 of 2015, Tiger invested nearly US $2 billion, and successively bought 16 million and 50 million JD.com shares through its funds.</p><p>In the following years, Tiger reduced its holdings of JD.com shares at a very slow rate. By 2018Q2, its holdings dropped to 40 million shares, a reduction of about 40% (Hillhouse had already reduced its holdings by nearly 90% during the same period). After the Mingzhou incident in 2018, Tiger chose to further increase its holdings of JD.com, and bought nearly 16 million JD.com shares at a consideration of about US $500 million in the next two quarters.</p><p>By the beginning of 2020, Tiger held 53 million shares of JD.com. During this year, JD.com, whose stock price more than doubled, earned Tiger nearly US $2.8 billion.</p><p>When JD.com went public, Hillhouse's return was about US $3 billion based on the issue price. Since then, through long-term holding, Hillhouse has earned an additional US $2.5 billion on JD.com; After Tiger went public in JD.COM, it distributed shares worth US $4.2 billion to LPs (calculated according to the issue price). After seven years of speculation in JD.COM shares, Tiger itself made another US $3.1 billion.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/HGCWrdQ_CxJgpybrfRLAbw\">投中网</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8bab54e49dd53d68a704005a9775aa0d","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/HGCWrdQ_CxJgpybrfRLAbw","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1161095162","content_text":"2020年高瓴投资中概股的收益约45亿美元，老虎的收益约48亿美元，两家PE炒股的秘诀是什么？\n\n老虎和高瓴，已经成为最会炒中概股的两家PE。\n老虎环球基金2020年赚了100多亿美元，京东、拼多多两只股票就给老虎赚了42亿美元；高瓴资本截至2020年底持有美股的头寸已经达到126亿美元，中概股去年给高瓴带来约45亿美元的收益。\n在炒中概股这件事儿上，老虎和高瓴有很多相似的操作：比如重仓京东、拼多多和阿里，疫情爆发后加仓京东、拼多多，四季度陆续减持新能源汽车股等等；但仔细分析，二者的风格又有明显的不同，比如高瓴更喜欢做波段操作，老虎却更倾向长期持有；高瓴覆盖的范围更广，老虎的持仓集中在自己熟悉的电商、教育、流媒体等领域……\n先强调一下，这篇文章的目的是总结高瓴、老虎炒股票的特点，而不是定义两家PE全部的投资策略。高瓴资产管理规模近800亿美元，美股头寸只占到资产组合的1/7；老虎虽然在2020年大幅提高了资产组合中美股的占比，但在私募阶段入局并在公司上市后长期持有，才是老虎环球基金成立17年以来长盛的秘诀。\n高瓴、老虎，谁是最会炒中概股的PE？\n首先梳理一下2020年高瓴和老虎在中概股上的收益。\n\n先看高瓴，如上表所示，2020年高瓴资本先后持有37只中概股股票，全年总收益约45亿美元。\n在高瓴的持仓组合中，收益最高的5只股票分别是拼多多、京东、阿里巴巴，百济神州和哔哩哔哩，全年收益分别是14.32亿美元、8.23亿美元、7.19亿美元、5.07亿美元和4.09亿美元。\n\n再看老虎，如上表所示，2020年老虎先后持有25只中概股，全年收益总额为48亿美元，占老虎环球基金2020年总收益（约104亿美元）的46%。\n在老虎的中概股仓位组合中，京东、拼多多、阿里巴巴收益最高，三只股票加起来的总收益高达47.1亿美元，占2020年全部中概股收益的99%。\n乍看之下不论是收益还是仓位，高瓴、老虎有很多相似之处，但分析二者背后的投资行为，却可以发现炒中概股这件事上，高瓴和老虎有着明显的差异。\n\n首先是择股的区别。\n老虎对于中概股的选择，基本是其PE部门投资策略的延续。如上图所示，截至2020年四季度，老虎中概股仓位约占其美股仓位的25%，中国电商三巨头京东、拼多多、阿里巴巴的头寸超过10亿美元，其中京东股票头寸高达45亿美元，是老虎环球基金持仓最高的股票，占老虎全部美股头寸的11.6%。\n除电商之外，老虎投资最多的领域是教育（6只）、流媒体（5只），此外2020年比较热门的数据中心、新能源汽车等行业老虎也有参与。\n\n相比之下高瓴的涉猎范围更广。截至2020年Q4高瓴中概股头寸合计71.3亿美元，约占高瓴全部美股头寸的57%，其中拼多多、百济神州、京东三只股票持仓超过10亿美元。\n从行业分类来看，电商同样是高瓴最喜爱的行业，除了京东、阿里、拼多多三巨头，高瓴还持有蘑菇街、唯品会（已清仓）、优信等垂类电商。此外医药也是高瓴重点布局的行业，2020年高瓴先后投资了6家中概股医药公司，除中概股以外，高瓴还在2020年投资了近30家欧美医疗健康公司。\n除了重点布局的电商、医疗、教育行业，其他热门中概股高瓴也多有涉猎，从B站、万国数据、名创优品、声网，到贝壳找房、华住集团以及三个造车新势力，2020年热门的中概股，除了年底的百度之外高瓴都没有错过。\n高瓴择股能力强的另一个表现是“避坑”能力，2020年中概股最大的两颗雷分别是瑞幸和蛋壳，这两只股票此前也是热门中概股，高瓴却完美避开。除了因为爱奇艺的仓位亏掉约1亿美元，高瓴2020年炒中概股几乎没怎么亏到钱。\n第二点是买入策略的不同。\n老虎很少在二级市场买入中概股，大多数持仓都是在私募阶段完成的投资。唯一的例外是电商，2020年老虎只在二级市场买入京东、阿里、拼多多的股票。电商行业也是老虎最熟悉的领域，不论是早年投资当当卓越，还是投资京东一战成名，中国电商可以说是老虎跻身顶级PE的龙门。\n高瓴也是通过京东的案子拿到顶级PE的入场券，但炒中概股并不局限于电商。2020年高瓴至少在二级市场买入过14只中概股，完美日记、万国数据、蔚来汽车这几个2020年的热门中概股高瓴都曾在二级市场买入，还以基石投资者的身份参与了理想汽车和贝壳找房的“打新”。\n\n另外值得一提的是对B站的投资，B站股价从2019年的跨年晚会后开始起飞，高瓴并不是B站的早期投资者，直到2020年Q4才开始增持B站，公开信息中并没有B站引入高瓴战投的新闻，6也就是说高瓴大概率是在二级市场买入的B站股票。\n2018年Q4买入200万股，2019年前三季度分别买入130万、450万和480万股，高瓴总共的持仓成本不到1.8亿美元，却赚了将近6.5亿美元，回报高达260%，比大部分押中B站的VC挣得都多。\n第三点则是投资风格的区别。\n老虎的中概股投资风格相对稳健。对于京东、拼多多、阿里巴巴、新东方、好未来这些重仓中概股，老虎不论是增持还是减持，每次的幅度都不大。比如2020Q1减持京东的比例约4%，2020Q2增持的比例约2%，还有Q4减持新东方，比例不超过15%。\n高瓴则喜欢波段操作，甚至动辄“All in”。比如京东，Q2高瓴先是减持30%，Q3直接加仓100%，又在Q4减持近20%，操作不仅频繁，每个季度加持减持的比例也远超老虎。还有去年四季度对处于高点的造车新势力，高瓴直接清仓了未来、小鹏、理想的股票。2020年高瓴一共清仓了13只中概股，其中5只股票都是在年内买入。\n最后还有一个特别有意思的现象，就是对于爱奇艺和阿里巴巴两只股票的不同处理。\n阿里和爱奇艺都是老虎和高瓴重仓的股票，2020年初高瓴分别持有近200万股阿里股票（价值约4亿美元）和1200万股爱奇艺股票（价值约4亿美元），老虎分别持有350万股阿里股票（约7亿美元）和100万股爱奇艺股票（价值约2100万美元）。\n2020年这两家公司都遇到了麻烦，年初爱奇艺遭遇做空机构狙击，之后传出遭到sec调查；阿里巴巴则在年底因为国内反垄断调查和蚂蚁上市失败陷入麻烦。\n老虎在Q2清仓了爱奇艺的股票，但始终没有减持阿里的股票，甚至导致2020年阿里股票的收益在Q4减少了约3亿美元；高瓴在阿里这件事上杀伐果断，在Q4直接清仓了阿里股票，却没有“抛弃”爱奇艺，只在Q3、Q4减持了约800万股，约是持股的1/6。\n面对同样的危机，面对不同的公司，老虎和高瓴却做出了两种截然相反的操作，背后的东西值得我们好好思考。\n成也京东，成多少也是京东\n最后，我们来聊一聊老虎和高瓴在京东的投资。\n高瓴和老虎都是因为京东一战成名，由此跻身全球顶尖PE的行列。2003年启动第一期私募基金募集的老虎，之后的11年一共完成了约60亿美元的募资，而在京东2014年上市后，老虎7年里完成了将近180亿美元募资，是之前11年的3倍。\n高瓴也是如此，2005年张磊成立高瓴资本时，手中拿到的不过是大卫·史文森等提供的2000万美元种子，2014年京东上市后高瓴募资加快，到2020年时资管规模已经超过5000亿元（约760亿美元）。\n先回顾一下老虎和高瓴在上市前对京东的投资。\n高瓴在2010年投资京东C轮融资，根据媒体报道投资总额为3亿美元，其中6500万美元是以可转债的方式投资。这部分可转债在2012年转换成8600万股普通股，加上C轮取得的2.3亿股C系列优先股，高瓴在京东上市后一共持有3.19亿普通股（相当于1.59亿ADS）。\n老虎在则在2010年-2012年之间数次投资京东，其中2012年投资京东7500万美元，根据招股书上市前老虎持有京东4.45亿普通股（相当于2.22亿ADS）。但在京东上市后老虎把大部分的股票都分给了LP，截至2014年底属于老虎环球基金的股票只剩下500万股。\n\n如上图所示，2014年底高瓴还持有1.52亿股京东股票，2015年高瓴开始慢慢减持京东股票，其中2015年减持约3000万股，获利超过8亿美元。2016年高瓴进一步加快减持速度，到2018年Q2已经减持到约2100万股，期间获利约34亿美元，此时高瓴投资京东的回报已经将近50亿美元。\n2018年因为刘强东明州事件的影响，京东股价开始进入一个漫长的停滞期，此时高瓴也放缓了减持的动作，2019年还在两个季度买入少量京东股票。\n到了2020年初，高瓴持有的京东股票降至1200万股，总市值约4.2亿美元。而因为疫情加快业绩复苏，京东在2020年股价暴涨，高瓴也在2020年Q2投入超过5亿美元买入京东股票，最终2020年高瓴在京东股票上收益约8亿美元。\n老虎则与京东的操作正好相反，上市后老虎把大部分的股票分给了LP，2014年底的持仓只剩500万股。但此后老虎开始增持京东，2015年Q1和Q2老虎投入近20亿美元，通过旗下基金先后买入1600万和5000万股京东股票。\n之后几年老虎以非常缓慢的速度减持京东股票，到2018Q2时持股降至4000万股，减持约40%（同期高瓴已经减持了将近90%），而在2018年明州事件之后，老虎选择进一步增持京东，接下来的2个季度以约5亿美元的对价买入近1600万股京东股票。\n到2020年初，老虎持有京东5300万股，在这一年里，股价上涨超过2倍的京东，为老虎赚了将近28亿美元。\n京东上市时，按照发行价计算高瓴的回报约30亿美元，此后通过长期持有，高瓴在京东上多赚了25亿美元；老虎在京东上市后给LP们分了价值42亿美元的股票（按照发行价计算），之后炒了7年京东股票，老虎自己又赚了31亿美元。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1155,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":378858887,"gmtCreate":1619017357249,"gmtModify":1704718415022,"author":{"id":"3568196683280287","authorId":"3568196683280287","name":"杨胜胜","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/39b07ed709bc0fdb73851119781eaa64","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3568196683280287","authorIdStr":"3568196683280287"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"666","listText":"666","text":"666","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/378858887","repostId":"1197052490","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1197052490","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1619016662,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1197052490?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-04-21 22:51","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"[Change] Some popular Chinese concept stocks rose, and Yixian E-commerce rose more than 10%","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1197052490","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"4月21日，部分热门中概股盘中涨幅扩大，逸仙电商涨超10%，名创优品、雾芯科技涨超6%，爱奇艺、腾讯音乐涨超4%，达达集团、跟谁学、贝壳涨超3%，哔哩哔哩涨近2%。","content":"<p>On April 21, some popular Chinese concept stocks expanded their intraday gains.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/YSG\">Yixian E-commerce</a>Up more than 10%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MNSO\">MINISO</a>, Wuxin Technology rose more than 6%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IQ\">IQiyi</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TME\">Tencent Music</a>Rose more than 4%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DADA\">Dada Group</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GSX\">Who to learn from</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BEKE\">Shells</a>Rose more than 3%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">Bilibili</a>Up nearly 2%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e14edf0790ae1746f6dba00e29df721c\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>[Change] Some popular Chinese concept stocks rose, and Yixian E-commerce rose more than 10%</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n[Change] Some popular Chinese concept stocks rose, and Yixian E-commerce rose more than 10%\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-04-21 22:51</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>On April 21, some popular Chinese concept stocks expanded their intraday gains.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/YSG\">Yixian E-commerce</a>Up more than 10%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MNSO\">MINISO</a>, Wuxin Technology rose more than 6%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IQ\">IQiyi</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TME\">Tencent Music</a>Rose more than 4%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DADA\">Dada Group</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GSX\">Who to learn from</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BEKE\">Shells</a>Rose more than 3%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">Bilibili</a>Up nearly 2%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e14edf0790ae1746f6dba00e29df721c\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8593d7bafc6da002b2ab4975d4711a90","relate_stocks":{"YSG":"逸仙电商","QNETCN":"纳斯达克中美互联网老虎指数","TTTN":"老虎中美互联网巨头ETF"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1197052490","content_text":"4月21日，部分热门中概股盘中涨幅扩大，逸仙电商涨超10%，名创优品、雾芯科技涨超6%，爱奇艺、腾讯音乐涨超4%，达达集团、跟谁学、贝壳涨超3%，哔哩哔哩涨近2%。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TTTN":0.9,"YSG":0.9,"QNETCN":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1166,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":378853190,"gmtCreate":1619017210310,"gmtModify":1704718412411,"author":{"id":"3568196683280287","authorId":"3568196683280287","name":"杨胜胜","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/39b07ed709bc0fdb73851119781eaa64","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3568196683280287","authorIdStr":"3568196683280287"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"??","listText":"??","text":"??","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/378853190","repostId":"1197052490","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1197052490","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1619016662,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1197052490?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-04-21 22:51","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"[Change] Some popular Chinese concept stocks rose, and Yixian E-commerce rose more than 10%","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1197052490","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"4月21日，部分热门中概股盘中涨幅扩大，逸仙电商涨超10%，名创优品、雾芯科技涨超6%，爱奇艺、腾讯音乐涨超4%，达达集团、跟谁学、贝壳涨超3%，哔哩哔哩涨近2%。","content":"<p>On April 21, some popular Chinese concept stocks expanded their intraday gains.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/YSG\">Yixian E-commerce</a>Up more than 10%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MNSO\">MINISO</a>, Wuxin Technology rose more than 6%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IQ\">IQiyi</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TME\">Tencent Music</a>Rose more than 4%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DADA\">Dada Group</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GSX\">Who to learn from</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BEKE\">Shells</a>Rose more than 3%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">Bilibili</a>Up nearly 2%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e14edf0790ae1746f6dba00e29df721c\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>[Change] Some popular Chinese concept stocks rose, and Yixian E-commerce rose more than 10%</title>\n<style 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}\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n[Change] Some popular Chinese concept stocks rose, and Yixian E-commerce rose more than 10%\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-04-21 22:51</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>On April 21, some popular Chinese concept stocks expanded their intraday gains.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/YSG\">Yixian E-commerce</a>Up more than 10%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MNSO\">MINISO</a>, Wuxin Technology rose more than 6%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IQ\">IQiyi</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TME\">Tencent Music</a>Rose more than 4%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DADA\">Dada Group</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GSX\">Who to learn from</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BEKE\">Shells</a>Rose more than 3%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">Bilibili</a>Up nearly 2%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e14edf0790ae1746f6dba00e29df721c\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8593d7bafc6da002b2ab4975d4711a90","relate_stocks":{"YSG":"逸仙电商","QNETCN":"纳斯达克中美互联网老虎指数","TTTN":"老虎中美互联网巨头ETF"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1197052490","content_text":"4月21日，部分热门中概股盘中涨幅扩大，逸仙电商涨超10%，名创优品、雾芯科技涨超6%，爱奇艺、腾讯音乐涨超4%，达达集团、跟谁学、贝壳涨超3%，哔哩哔哩涨近2%。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TTTN":0.9,"YSG":0.9,"QNETCN":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1339,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":312500010,"gmtCreate":1612161764330,"gmtModify":1704867550715,"author":{"id":"3568196683280287","authorId":"3568196683280287","name":"杨胜胜","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/39b07ed709bc0fdb73851119781eaa64","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3568196683280287","authorIdStr":"3568196683280287"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"lol","listText":"lol","text":"lol","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/312500010","repostId":"2108278939","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1761,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3527667803686145","authorId":"3527667803686145","name":"社区成长助手","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b7c7106b5c0c8b0037faa67439d898f","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3527667803686145","authorIdStr":"3527667803686145"},"content":"Finally, when you first post [compare heart] [compare heart] post, you can get more exposure by related stocks or related topics. If you want to create high-quality articles, please checkGuidelines for Tiger Community Creation","text":"Finally, when you first post [compare heart] [compare heart] post, you can get more exposure by related stocks or related topics. If you want to create high-quality articles, please checkGuidelines for Tiger Community Creation","html":"Finally, when you first post [compare heart] [compare heart] post, you can get more exposure by related stocks or related topics. If you want to create high-quality articles, please checkGuidelines for Tiger Community Creation"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":375915083,"gmtCreate":1619275872142,"gmtModify":1704722044202,"author":{"id":"3568196683280287","authorId":"3568196683280287","name":"杨胜胜","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/39b07ed709bc0fdb73851119781eaa64","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3568196683280287","authorIdStr":"3568196683280287"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"??","listText":"??","text":"??","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/375915083","repostId":"1170368925","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":752,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":376680219,"gmtCreate":1619109213131,"gmtModify":1704719859730,"author":{"id":"3568196683280287","authorId":"3568196683280287","name":"杨胜胜","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/39b07ed709bc0fdb73851119781eaa64","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3568196683280287","authorIdStr":"3568196683280287"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"???","listText":"???","text":"???","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/376680219","repostId":"2129387412","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1864,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":378856004,"gmtCreate":1619017380408,"gmtModify":1704718416004,"author":{"id":"3568196683280287","authorId":"3568196683280287","name":"杨胜胜","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/39b07ed709bc0fdb73851119781eaa64","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3568196683280287","authorIdStr":"3568196683280287"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/378856004","repostId":"1161095162","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1161095162","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1618973932,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1161095162?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-04-21 10:58","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Hillhouse Capital or Tiger Fund, who is better at speculating in Chinese concept stocks?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1161095162","media":"投中网","summary":"2020年高瓴投资中概股的收益约45亿美元，老虎的收益约48亿美元，两家PE炒股的秘诀是什么？\n\n老虎和高瓴，已经成为最会炒中概股的两家PE。\n老虎环球基金2020年赚了100多亿美元，京东、拼多多两","content":"<p><b>In 2020, Hillhouse's income from investing in Chinese concept stocks will be about 4.5 billion US dollars, and Tiger's income will be about 4.8 billion US dollars. What is the secret of the two PE stock trading?</b>Tiger and Hillhouse have become the two PEs that are best at speculating in Chinese concept stocks.</p><p>Tiger Global Fund earned more than $10 billion in 2020,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">JD.com</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">Pinduoduo</a>Two stocks earned Tiger $4.2 billion; As of the end of 2020, Hillhouse Capital's position in U.S. stocks has reached US $12.6 billion, and Chinese concept stocks brought approximately US $4.5 billion to Hillhouse last year.</p><p>When it comes to speculating in Chinese concept stocks, Tiger and Hillhouse have many similar operations: such as heavy positions<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">JD.com</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">Pinduoduo</a>And Alibaba, after the outbreak of the epidemic, increased their positions in JD.com and Pinduoduo, and successively reduced their holdings of new energy vehicle stocks in the fourth quarter, etc.; However, after careful analysis, the styles of the two are obviously different. For example, Hillhouse prefers to do band operations, while Tiger prefers to hold for a long time; Hillhouse covers a wider range, and Tiger's holdings are concentrated in e-commerce, education, streaming media and other fields that it is familiar with...</p><p>First of all, I would like to emphasize that the purpose of this article is to summarize the characteristics of Hillhouse and Tiger stock speculation, rather than define all the investment strategies of the two PEs. Hillhouse's asset management scale is nearly 80 billion US dollars, and its U.S. stock position only accounts for 1/7 of the asset portfolio; Although Tiger has significantly increased the proportion of U.S. stocks in its asset portfolio in 2020, entering the market in the private equity stage and holding it for a long time after the company's listing is the secret of Tiger Global Fund's long-term prosperity since its establishment 17 years ago.</p><p><b>Hillhouse, Tiger, who is the PE who is best at speculating in Chinese concept stocks?</b></p><p>First, let's sort out the earnings of Hillhouse and Tiger on Chinese concept stocks in 2020.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a0d3e0db1c8cdcf3e3d65f30aa474cf4\" tg-width=\"657\" tg-height=\"1105\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Let's look at Hillhouse first, as shown in the table above,<b>In 2020, Hillhouse Capital has successively held 37 Chinese concept stocks, with a total annual income of approximately US $4.5 billion.</b></p><p>In Hillhouse's holdings portfolio, the five stocks with the highest returns are Pinduoduo, JD.com,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba</a>，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BGNE\">BeiGene</a>And<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">Bilibili</a>, the annual revenue was US $1.432 billion, US $823 million, US $719 million, US $507 million and US $409 million respectively.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7d647c9926c7b5548e830b4326f1ad70\" tg-width=\"577\" tg-height=\"822\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Looking at the tiger again, as shown in the table above,<b>In 2020, Tiger held 25 Chinese concept stocks successively, with a total annual income of US $4.8 billion.</b>It accounted for 46% of Tiger Global Fund's total earnings in 2020 (approximately US $10.4 billion).</p><p>In Tiger's portfolio of Chinese concept stocks, JD.com, Pinduoduo,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba</a>The return is the highest. The total return of the three stocks combined is as high as US $4.71 billion, accounting for 99% of the returns of all Chinese concept stocks in 2020.</p><p>At first glance, Hillhouse and Tiger have many similarities in terms of income or position, but analyzing the investment behavior behind the two, we can find that there are obvious differences between Hillhouse and Tiger in speculating in Chinese concept stocks.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/38e60a0d09f7044f0a41594bddaf7ea0\" tg-width=\"742\" tg-height=\"822\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>The first is the difference in stock selection.</b></p><p>Tiger's choice of Chinese concept stocks is basically a continuation of its investment strategy in the PE sector. As shown in the figure above, as of the fourth quarter of 2020, Tiger's Chinese concept stock positions accounted for about 25% of its U.S. stock positions. It is the stock with the highest position held by Tiger Global Fund, accounting for 11.6% of Tiger's total U.S. stock positions.</p><p>In addition to e-commerce, the fields in which Tiger invests the most are education (6) and streaming media (5). In addition, Tiger also participates in industries such as data centers and new energy vehicles that are more popular in 2020.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/81b095caa7c0f8bb035d79124b368c38\" tg-width=\"742\" tg-height=\"1142\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In contrast, Hillhouse has a wider range of coverage. As of Q4 2020, Hillhouse's Chinese concept stock positions totaled US $7.13 billion, accounting for approximately 57% of Hillhouse's total US stock positions, of which Pinduoduo,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06160\">BeiGene</a>, JD.com holds more than US $1 billion in three stocks.</p><p>From the perspective of industry classification, e-commerce is also Hillhouse's favorite industry. In addition to the three giants JD.com, Alibaba and Pinduoduo, Hillhouse also holds<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MOGU\">Mushroom Street</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VIPS\">Vipshop</a>(cleared),<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UXIN\">Youxin</a>Isovertical e-commerce. In addition, pharmaceuticals is also a key industry for Hillhouse. In 2020, Hillhouse successively invested in 6 Chinese concept stock pharmaceutical companies. In addition to Chinese concept stocks, Hillhouse also invested in nearly 30 European and American medical and health companies in 2020.</p><p>In addition to the key layout of e-commerce, medical care, and education industries, other popular Chinese concept stocks Hillhouse are also involved, from station B,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GDS\">GDS</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MNSO\">MINISO</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/API\">Acoustic net</a>, to<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BEKE\">Shells</a>Looking for a house,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HTHT\">Huazhu</a>Group and three new car-making forces, popular Chinese concept stocks in 2020, except for the end of the year<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">Baidu</a>Hillhouse didn't miss it.</p><p>Another manifestation of Hillhouse's strong stock selection ability is its ability to \"avoid pitfalls\". The two biggest thunders in Chinese concept stocks in 2020 are Ruixing and Danke. These two stocks were also popular Chinese concept stocks before, but Hillhouse is perfect. avoid. Except because<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IQ\">IQiyi</a>Hillhouse lost about US $100 million in its position, and Hillhouse hardly lost much money in speculating in Chinese concept stocks in 2020.</p><p><b>The second point is the difference in buying strategy.</b></p><p>Tiger rarely buys Chinese concept stocks in the secondary market, and most of its positions are investments completed in the private equity stage. The only exception is e-commerce. In 2020, Tiger will only buy stocks of JD.com, Alibaba, and Pinduoduo in the secondary market. The e-commerce industry is also the field that Tiger is most familiar with. Whether it is investing in Dangdang Excellence in the early years or investing in JD.com to become famous in World War I, Chinese e-commerce can be said to be the gantry for Tiger to become the top PE.</p><p>Hillhouse also got top PE tickets through JD.com's case, but speculation in Chinese concept stocks is not limited to e-commerce. In 2020, Hillhouse has bought at least 14 Chinese concept stocks in the secondary market, Perfect Diary,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GDS\">GDS</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">Nio</a>Hillhouse, a few popular Chinese concept stocks in 2020, has bought automobiles in the secondary market and participated as cornerstone investors<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">Li Auto</a>And<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BEKE\">Shells</a>The \"new\" of looking for a house.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0629fe2e85c24d191c22721db6d0e861\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"649\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>It is also worth mentioning the investment in Bilibili. The stock price of Bilibili began to take off after the New Year's Eve party in 2019. Hillhouse was not an early investor in Bilibili. It did not begin to increase its holdings in Bilibili until Q4 of 2020. Public information There is no news that Bilibili introduced Hillhouse's strategic investment, 6 that means that Hillhouse is most likely to buy Bilibili stocks in the secondary market.</p><p>In Q4 of 2018, I bought 2 million shares, and in the first three quarters of 2019, I bought 1.3 million, 4.5 million and 4.8 million shares respectively. Hillhouse's total holding cost was less than US $180 million, but it earned nearly US $650 million, with a return of as high as 260%, earning more than most VCs who bet on station B.</p><p><b>The third point is the difference in investment styles.</b></p><p>Tiger's investment style in Chinese concept stocks is relatively stable. For JD.com, Pinduoduo, Alibaba,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EDU\">New Oriental</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TAL\">TAL</a>For these heavily held Chinese concept stocks, whether Tiger increases or decreases its holdings, the magnitude is not large each time. For example, in 2020Q1, the proportion of reductions in JD.com was about 4%, in 2020Q2, the proportion of increases in holdings was about 2%, and in Q4, the holdings were reduced<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EDU\">New Oriental</a>, the proportion does not exceed 15%.</p><p>Hillhouse likes band operation, and even \"All in\" at every turn. For example, JD.com, Hillhouse first reduced its holdings by 30% in Q2, directly increased its positions by 100% in Q3, and then reduced its holdings by nearly 20% in Q4. Not only is the operation frequent, but the proportion of blessings and reductions in each quarter also far exceeds that of Tiger. In addition, in the fourth quarter of last year, Hillhouse directly cleared the stocks of Future, XPeng, and Ideal for the new car-making forces at a high point. In 2020, Hillhouse cleared a total of 13 Chinese concept stocks, of which 5 stocks were bought during the year.</p><p><b>Finally, there is a particularly interesting phenomenon, that is, for<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IQ\">IQiyi</a>Different treatment of Alibaba and Alibaba stocks.</b></p><p>Ali and iQiyi are both stocks that Tiger and Hillhouse are heavily held. At the beginning of 2020, Hillhouse held nearly 2 million Ali shares (worth about 400 million US dollars) and 12 million iQiyi shares (worth about 400 million US dollars) respectively. Tiger holds 3.5 million Ali shares (about 700 million US dollars) and 1 million iQiyi shares (worth about 21 million US dollars) respectively.</p><p>Both companies encountered trouble in 2020. At the beginning of the year, iQiyi was attacked by short-selling institutions, and later it was reported that it was investigated by sec; Alibaba was in trouble at the end of the year due to domestic antitrust investigations and the failure of Ant to go public.</p><p>Tiger cleared iQiyi's stock in Q2, but never reduced its holdings of Ali's stock, which even led to a decrease in Ali's stock income by about US $300 million in Q4 in 2020; Hillhouse was decisive in the matter of Ali. It directly liquidated Ali's shares in Q4, but did not \"abandon\" iQiyi. It only reduced its holdings by about 8 million shares in Q3 and Q4, which is about 1/6 of its holdings.</p><p>Faced with the same crisis and different companies, Tiger and Hillhouse have made two diametrically opposite operations, and the things behind them are worthy of our careful consideration.</p><p><b>Cheng is also JD.com, and how much Cheng is also JD.com</b></p><p>Finally, let's talk about Tiger and Hillhouse's investments in JD.com.</p><p>Both Hillhouse and Tiger became famous because of JD.com's World War I, and thus became one of the top PEs in the world. Tiger, which launched the first phase of private equity fundraising in 2003, completed a total of about US $6 billion in fundraising in the next 11 years. After JD.com went public in 2014, Tiger completed nearly US $18 billion in fundraising in 7 years, three times that of the previous 11 years.</p><p>The same is true for Hillhouse. When Zhang Lei established Hillhouse Capital in 2005, he only got US $20 million in seeds provided by David Swenson and others. After JD.com went public in 2014, Hillhouse's fundraising accelerated. By 2020, the asset management scale has exceeded 500 billion yuan (about 76 billion US dollars).</p><p>Let's first review Tiger and Hillhouse's investments in JD.com before they went public.</p><p>Hillhouse invested in JD.com's Series C financing in 2010. According to media reports, the total investment was US $300 million, of which US $65 million was invested in the form of convertible bonds. This part of the convertible bonds was converted into 86 million ordinary shares in 2012. Together with the 230 million C-series preferred shares shares acquired in the C round, Hillhouse held a total of 319 million ordinary shares (equivalent to 159 million ADS) after its listing on JD.com.</p><p>Tiger invested in JD.com several times between 2010 and 2012, including US $75 million in JD.com in 2012. According to the prospectus, Tiger held 445 million ordinary shares (equivalent to 222 million ADS) of JD.com before listing. However, after JD.com went public, Tiger distributed most of its shares to LP. By the end of 2014, only 5 million shares belonging to Tiger Global Fund were left.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fcb64858e3a35393daed3822f4349eaa\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"696\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>As shown in the figure above, at the end of 2014, Hillhouse still held 152 million shares of JD.com. In 2015, Hillhouse began to slowly reduce its holdings of JD.com shares. In 2015, it reduced its holdings by about 30 million shares, making a profit of over 800 million US dollars. In 2016, Hillhouse further accelerated the reduction of holdings. By Q2 of 2018, it had reduced its holdings to about 21 million shares, with a profit of about 3.4 billion US dollars during the period. At this time, the return of Hillhouse's investment in JD.com has reached nearly 5 billion US dollars.</p><p>In 2018, due to the impact of the Liu Qiangdong Mingzhou incident, JD.com's stock price began to enter a long period of stagnation. At this time, Hillhouse also slowed down its reduction of holdings. In 2019, it also bought a small amount of JD.com shares in two quarters.</p><p>By the beginning of 2020, Hillhouse's JD.com shares had dropped to 12 million shares, with a total market value of approximately US $420 million. Because the epidemic accelerated the recovery of performance, JD.com's stock price skyrocketed in 2020. Hillhouse also invested more than US $500 million to buy JD.com shares in Q2 of 2020. In the end, Hillhouse earned about US $800 million in JD.com shares in 2020.</p><p>Tiger's operation is just the opposite of JD.COM. After listing, Tiger distributed most of its shares to LP, leaving only 5 million shares at the end of 2014. But since then, Tiger has begun to increase its holdings of JD.com. In Q1 and Q2 of 2015, Tiger invested nearly US $2 billion, and successively bought 16 million and 50 million JD.com shares through its funds.</p><p>In the following years, Tiger reduced its holdings of JD.com shares at a very slow rate. By 2018Q2, its holdings dropped to 40 million shares, a reduction of about 40% (Hillhouse had already reduced its holdings by nearly 90% during the same period). After the Mingzhou incident in 2018, Tiger chose to further increase its holdings of JD.com, and bought nearly 16 million JD.com shares at a consideration of about US $500 million in the next two quarters.</p><p>By the beginning of 2020, Tiger held 53 million shares of JD.com. During this year, JD.com, whose stock price more than doubled, earned Tiger nearly US $2.8 billion.</p><p>When JD.com went public, Hillhouse's return was about US $3 billion based on the issue price. Since then, through long-term holding, Hillhouse has earned an additional US $2.5 billion on JD.com; After Tiger went public in JD.COM, it distributed shares worth US $4.2 billion to LPs (calculated according to the issue price). After seven years of speculation in JD.COM shares, Tiger itself made another US $3.1 billion.</p>","source":"tzw","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Hillhouse Capital or Tiger Fund, who is better at speculating in Chinese concept stocks?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHillhouse Capital or Tiger Fund, who is better at speculating in Chinese concept stocks?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">投中网</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-04-21 10:58</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>In 2020, Hillhouse's income from investing in Chinese concept stocks will be about 4.5 billion US dollars, and Tiger's income will be about 4.8 billion US dollars. What is the secret of the two PE stock trading?</b>Tiger and Hillhouse have become the two PEs that are best at speculating in Chinese concept stocks.</p><p>Tiger Global Fund earned more than $10 billion in 2020,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">JD.com</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">Pinduoduo</a>Two stocks earned Tiger $4.2 billion; As of the end of 2020, Hillhouse Capital's position in U.S. stocks has reached US $12.6 billion, and Chinese concept stocks brought approximately US $4.5 billion to Hillhouse last year.</p><p>When it comes to speculating in Chinese concept stocks, Tiger and Hillhouse have many similar operations: such as heavy positions<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">JD.com</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">Pinduoduo</a>And Alibaba, after the outbreak of the epidemic, increased their positions in JD.com and Pinduoduo, and successively reduced their holdings of new energy vehicle stocks in the fourth quarter, etc.; However, after careful analysis, the styles of the two are obviously different. For example, Hillhouse prefers to do band operations, while Tiger prefers to hold for a long time; Hillhouse covers a wider range, and Tiger's holdings are concentrated in e-commerce, education, streaming media and other fields that it is familiar with...</p><p>First of all, I would like to emphasize that the purpose of this article is to summarize the characteristics of Hillhouse and Tiger stock speculation, rather than define all the investment strategies of the two PEs. Hillhouse's asset management scale is nearly 80 billion US dollars, and its U.S. stock position only accounts for 1/7 of the asset portfolio; Although Tiger has significantly increased the proportion of U.S. stocks in its asset portfolio in 2020, entering the market in the private equity stage and holding it for a long time after the company's listing is the secret of Tiger Global Fund's long-term prosperity since its establishment 17 years ago.</p><p><b>Hillhouse, Tiger, who is the PE who is best at speculating in Chinese concept stocks?</b></p><p>First, let's sort out the earnings of Hillhouse and Tiger on Chinese concept stocks in 2020.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a0d3e0db1c8cdcf3e3d65f30aa474cf4\" tg-width=\"657\" tg-height=\"1105\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Let's look at Hillhouse first, as shown in the table above,<b>In 2020, Hillhouse Capital has successively held 37 Chinese concept stocks, with a total annual income of approximately US $4.5 billion.</b></p><p>In Hillhouse's holdings portfolio, the five stocks with the highest returns are Pinduoduo, JD.com,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba</a>，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BGNE\">BeiGene</a>And<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">Bilibili</a>, the annual revenue was US $1.432 billion, US $823 million, US $719 million, US $507 million and US $409 million respectively.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7d647c9926c7b5548e830b4326f1ad70\" tg-width=\"577\" tg-height=\"822\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Looking at the tiger again, as shown in the table above,<b>In 2020, Tiger held 25 Chinese concept stocks successively, with a total annual income of US $4.8 billion.</b>It accounted for 46% of Tiger Global Fund's total earnings in 2020 (approximately US $10.4 billion).</p><p>In Tiger's portfolio of Chinese concept stocks, JD.com, Pinduoduo,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba</a>The return is the highest. The total return of the three stocks combined is as high as US $4.71 billion, accounting for 99% of the returns of all Chinese concept stocks in 2020.</p><p>At first glance, Hillhouse and Tiger have many similarities in terms of income or position, but analyzing the investment behavior behind the two, we can find that there are obvious differences between Hillhouse and Tiger in speculating in Chinese concept stocks.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/38e60a0d09f7044f0a41594bddaf7ea0\" tg-width=\"742\" tg-height=\"822\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>The first is the difference in stock selection.</b></p><p>Tiger's choice of Chinese concept stocks is basically a continuation of its investment strategy in the PE sector. As shown in the figure above, as of the fourth quarter of 2020, Tiger's Chinese concept stock positions accounted for about 25% of its U.S. stock positions. It is the stock with the highest position held by Tiger Global Fund, accounting for 11.6% of Tiger's total U.S. stock positions.</p><p>In addition to e-commerce, the fields in which Tiger invests the most are education (6) and streaming media (5). In addition, Tiger also participates in industries such as data centers and new energy vehicles that are more popular in 2020.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/81b095caa7c0f8bb035d79124b368c38\" tg-width=\"742\" tg-height=\"1142\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In contrast, Hillhouse has a wider range of coverage. As of Q4 2020, Hillhouse's Chinese concept stock positions totaled US $7.13 billion, accounting for approximately 57% of Hillhouse's total US stock positions, of which Pinduoduo,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06160\">BeiGene</a>, JD.com holds more than US $1 billion in three stocks.</p><p>From the perspective of industry classification, e-commerce is also Hillhouse's favorite industry. In addition to the three giants JD.com, Alibaba and Pinduoduo, Hillhouse also holds<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MOGU\">Mushroom Street</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VIPS\">Vipshop</a>(cleared),<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UXIN\">Youxin</a>Isovertical e-commerce. In addition, pharmaceuticals is also a key industry for Hillhouse. In 2020, Hillhouse successively invested in 6 Chinese concept stock pharmaceutical companies. In addition to Chinese concept stocks, Hillhouse also invested in nearly 30 European and American medical and health companies in 2020.</p><p>In addition to the key layout of e-commerce, medical care, and education industries, other popular Chinese concept stocks Hillhouse are also involved, from station B,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GDS\">GDS</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MNSO\">MINISO</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/API\">Acoustic net</a>, to<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BEKE\">Shells</a>Looking for a house,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HTHT\">Huazhu</a>Group and three new car-making forces, popular Chinese concept stocks in 2020, except for the end of the year<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">Baidu</a>Hillhouse didn't miss it.</p><p>Another manifestation of Hillhouse's strong stock selection ability is its ability to \"avoid pitfalls\". The two biggest thunders in Chinese concept stocks in 2020 are Ruixing and Danke. These two stocks were also popular Chinese concept stocks before, but Hillhouse is perfect. avoid. Except because<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IQ\">IQiyi</a>Hillhouse lost about US $100 million in its position, and Hillhouse hardly lost much money in speculating in Chinese concept stocks in 2020.</p><p><b>The second point is the difference in buying strategy.</b></p><p>Tiger rarely buys Chinese concept stocks in the secondary market, and most of its positions are investments completed in the private equity stage. The only exception is e-commerce. In 2020, Tiger will only buy stocks of JD.com, Alibaba, and Pinduoduo in the secondary market. The e-commerce industry is also the field that Tiger is most familiar with. Whether it is investing in Dangdang Excellence in the early years or investing in JD.com to become famous in World War I, Chinese e-commerce can be said to be the gantry for Tiger to become the top PE.</p><p>Hillhouse also got top PE tickets through JD.com's case, but speculation in Chinese concept stocks is not limited to e-commerce. In 2020, Hillhouse has bought at least 14 Chinese concept stocks in the secondary market, Perfect Diary,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GDS\">GDS</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">Nio</a>Hillhouse, a few popular Chinese concept stocks in 2020, has bought automobiles in the secondary market and participated as cornerstone investors<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">Li Auto</a>And<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BEKE\">Shells</a>The \"new\" of looking for a house.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0629fe2e85c24d191c22721db6d0e861\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"649\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>It is also worth mentioning the investment in Bilibili. The stock price of Bilibili began to take off after the New Year's Eve party in 2019. Hillhouse was not an early investor in Bilibili. It did not begin to increase its holdings in Bilibili until Q4 of 2020. Public information There is no news that Bilibili introduced Hillhouse's strategic investment, 6 that means that Hillhouse is most likely to buy Bilibili stocks in the secondary market.</p><p>In Q4 of 2018, I bought 2 million shares, and in the first three quarters of 2019, I bought 1.3 million, 4.5 million and 4.8 million shares respectively. Hillhouse's total holding cost was less than US $180 million, but it earned nearly US $650 million, with a return of as high as 260%, earning more than most VCs who bet on station B.</p><p><b>The third point is the difference in investment styles.</b></p><p>Tiger's investment style in Chinese concept stocks is relatively stable. For JD.com, Pinduoduo, Alibaba,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EDU\">New Oriental</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TAL\">TAL</a>For these heavily held Chinese concept stocks, whether Tiger increases or decreases its holdings, the magnitude is not large each time. For example, in 2020Q1, the proportion of reductions in JD.com was about 4%, in 2020Q2, the proportion of increases in holdings was about 2%, and in Q4, the holdings were reduced<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EDU\">New Oriental</a>, the proportion does not exceed 15%.</p><p>Hillhouse likes band operation, and even \"All in\" at every turn. For example, JD.com, Hillhouse first reduced its holdings by 30% in Q2, directly increased its positions by 100% in Q3, and then reduced its holdings by nearly 20% in Q4. Not only is the operation frequent, but the proportion of blessings and reductions in each quarter also far exceeds that of Tiger. In addition, in the fourth quarter of last year, Hillhouse directly cleared the stocks of Future, XPeng, and Ideal for the new car-making forces at a high point. In 2020, Hillhouse cleared a total of 13 Chinese concept stocks, of which 5 stocks were bought during the year.</p><p><b>Finally, there is a particularly interesting phenomenon, that is, for<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IQ\">IQiyi</a>Different treatment of Alibaba and Alibaba stocks.</b></p><p>Ali and iQiyi are both stocks that Tiger and Hillhouse are heavily held. At the beginning of 2020, Hillhouse held nearly 2 million Ali shares (worth about 400 million US dollars) and 12 million iQiyi shares (worth about 400 million US dollars) respectively. Tiger holds 3.5 million Ali shares (about 700 million US dollars) and 1 million iQiyi shares (worth about 21 million US dollars) respectively.</p><p>Both companies encountered trouble in 2020. At the beginning of the year, iQiyi was attacked by short-selling institutions, and later it was reported that it was investigated by sec; Alibaba was in trouble at the end of the year due to domestic antitrust investigations and the failure of Ant to go public.</p><p>Tiger cleared iQiyi's stock in Q2, but never reduced its holdings of Ali's stock, which even led to a decrease in Ali's stock income by about US $300 million in Q4 in 2020; Hillhouse was decisive in the matter of Ali. It directly liquidated Ali's shares in Q4, but did not \"abandon\" iQiyi. It only reduced its holdings by about 8 million shares in Q3 and Q4, which is about 1/6 of its holdings.</p><p>Faced with the same crisis and different companies, Tiger and Hillhouse have made two diametrically opposite operations, and the things behind them are worthy of our careful consideration.</p><p><b>Cheng is also JD.com, and how much Cheng is also JD.com</b></p><p>Finally, let's talk about Tiger and Hillhouse's investments in JD.com.</p><p>Both Hillhouse and Tiger became famous because of JD.com's World War I, and thus became one of the top PEs in the world. Tiger, which launched the first phase of private equity fundraising in 2003, completed a total of about US $6 billion in fundraising in the next 11 years. After JD.com went public in 2014, Tiger completed nearly US $18 billion in fundraising in 7 years, three times that of the previous 11 years.</p><p>The same is true for Hillhouse. When Zhang Lei established Hillhouse Capital in 2005, he only got US $20 million in seeds provided by David Swenson and others. After JD.com went public in 2014, Hillhouse's fundraising accelerated. By 2020, the asset management scale has exceeded 500 billion yuan (about 76 billion US dollars).</p><p>Let's first review Tiger and Hillhouse's investments in JD.com before they went public.</p><p>Hillhouse invested in JD.com's Series C financing in 2010. According to media reports, the total investment was US $300 million, of which US $65 million was invested in the form of convertible bonds. This part of the convertible bonds was converted into 86 million ordinary shares in 2012. Together with the 230 million C-series preferred shares shares acquired in the C round, Hillhouse held a total of 319 million ordinary shares (equivalent to 159 million ADS) after its listing on JD.com.</p><p>Tiger invested in JD.com several times between 2010 and 2012, including US $75 million in JD.com in 2012. According to the prospectus, Tiger held 445 million ordinary shares (equivalent to 222 million ADS) of JD.com before listing. However, after JD.com went public, Tiger distributed most of its shares to LP. By the end of 2014, only 5 million shares belonging to Tiger Global Fund were left.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fcb64858e3a35393daed3822f4349eaa\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"696\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>As shown in the figure above, at the end of 2014, Hillhouse still held 152 million shares of JD.com. In 2015, Hillhouse began to slowly reduce its holdings of JD.com shares. In 2015, it reduced its holdings by about 30 million shares, making a profit of over 800 million US dollars. In 2016, Hillhouse further accelerated the reduction of holdings. By Q2 of 2018, it had reduced its holdings to about 21 million shares, with a profit of about 3.4 billion US dollars during the period. At this time, the return of Hillhouse's investment in JD.com has reached nearly 5 billion US dollars.</p><p>In 2018, due to the impact of the Liu Qiangdong Mingzhou incident, JD.com's stock price began to enter a long period of stagnation. At this time, Hillhouse also slowed down its reduction of holdings. In 2019, it also bought a small amount of JD.com shares in two quarters.</p><p>By the beginning of 2020, Hillhouse's JD.com shares had dropped to 12 million shares, with a total market value of approximately US $420 million. Because the epidemic accelerated the recovery of performance, JD.com's stock price skyrocketed in 2020. Hillhouse also invested more than US $500 million to buy JD.com shares in Q2 of 2020. In the end, Hillhouse earned about US $800 million in JD.com shares in 2020.</p><p>Tiger's operation is just the opposite of JD.COM. After listing, Tiger distributed most of its shares to LP, leaving only 5 million shares at the end of 2014. But since then, Tiger has begun to increase its holdings of JD.com. In Q1 and Q2 of 2015, Tiger invested nearly US $2 billion, and successively bought 16 million and 50 million JD.com shares through its funds.</p><p>In the following years, Tiger reduced its holdings of JD.com shares at a very slow rate. By 2018Q2, its holdings dropped to 40 million shares, a reduction of about 40% (Hillhouse had already reduced its holdings by nearly 90% during the same period). After the Mingzhou incident in 2018, Tiger chose to further increase its holdings of JD.com, and bought nearly 16 million JD.com shares at a consideration of about US $500 million in the next two quarters.</p><p>By the beginning of 2020, Tiger held 53 million shares of JD.com. During this year, JD.com, whose stock price more than doubled, earned Tiger nearly US $2.8 billion.</p><p>When JD.com went public, Hillhouse's return was about US $3 billion based on the issue price. Since then, through long-term holding, Hillhouse has earned an additional US $2.5 billion on JD.com; After Tiger went public in JD.COM, it distributed shares worth US $4.2 billion to LPs (calculated according to the issue price). After seven years of speculation in JD.COM shares, Tiger itself made another US $3.1 billion.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/HGCWrdQ_CxJgpybrfRLAbw\">投中网</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8bab54e49dd53d68a704005a9775aa0d","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/HGCWrdQ_CxJgpybrfRLAbw","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1161095162","content_text":"2020年高瓴投资中概股的收益约45亿美元，老虎的收益约48亿美元，两家PE炒股的秘诀是什么？\n\n老虎和高瓴，已经成为最会炒中概股的两家PE。\n老虎环球基金2020年赚了100多亿美元，京东、拼多多两只股票就给老虎赚了42亿美元；高瓴资本截至2020年底持有美股的头寸已经达到126亿美元，中概股去年给高瓴带来约45亿美元的收益。\n在炒中概股这件事儿上，老虎和高瓴有很多相似的操作：比如重仓京东、拼多多和阿里，疫情爆发后加仓京东、拼多多，四季度陆续减持新能源汽车股等等；但仔细分析，二者的风格又有明显的不同，比如高瓴更喜欢做波段操作，老虎却更倾向长期持有；高瓴覆盖的范围更广，老虎的持仓集中在自己熟悉的电商、教育、流媒体等领域……\n先强调一下，这篇文章的目的是总结高瓴、老虎炒股票的特点，而不是定义两家PE全部的投资策略。高瓴资产管理规模近800亿美元，美股头寸只占到资产组合的1/7；老虎虽然在2020年大幅提高了资产组合中美股的占比，但在私募阶段入局并在公司上市后长期持有，才是老虎环球基金成立17年以来长盛的秘诀。\n高瓴、老虎，谁是最会炒中概股的PE？\n首先梳理一下2020年高瓴和老虎在中概股上的收益。\n\n先看高瓴，如上表所示，2020年高瓴资本先后持有37只中概股股票，全年总收益约45亿美元。\n在高瓴的持仓组合中，收益最高的5只股票分别是拼多多、京东、阿里巴巴，百济神州和哔哩哔哩，全年收益分别是14.32亿美元、8.23亿美元、7.19亿美元、5.07亿美元和4.09亿美元。\n\n再看老虎，如上表所示，2020年老虎先后持有25只中概股，全年收益总额为48亿美元，占老虎环球基金2020年总收益（约104亿美元）的46%。\n在老虎的中概股仓位组合中，京东、拼多多、阿里巴巴收益最高，三只股票加起来的总收益高达47.1亿美元，占2020年全部中概股收益的99%。\n乍看之下不论是收益还是仓位，高瓴、老虎有很多相似之处，但分析二者背后的投资行为，却可以发现炒中概股这件事上，高瓴和老虎有着明显的差异。\n\n首先是择股的区别。\n老虎对于中概股的选择，基本是其PE部门投资策略的延续。如上图所示，截至2020年四季度，老虎中概股仓位约占其美股仓位的25%，中国电商三巨头京东、拼多多、阿里巴巴的头寸超过10亿美元，其中京东股票头寸高达45亿美元，是老虎环球基金持仓最高的股票，占老虎全部美股头寸的11.6%。\n除电商之外，老虎投资最多的领域是教育（6只）、流媒体（5只），此外2020年比较热门的数据中心、新能源汽车等行业老虎也有参与。\n\n相比之下高瓴的涉猎范围更广。截至2020年Q4高瓴中概股头寸合计71.3亿美元，约占高瓴全部美股头寸的57%，其中拼多多、百济神州、京东三只股票持仓超过10亿美元。\n从行业分类来看，电商同样是高瓴最喜爱的行业，除了京东、阿里、拼多多三巨头，高瓴还持有蘑菇街、唯品会（已清仓）、优信等垂类电商。此外医药也是高瓴重点布局的行业，2020年高瓴先后投资了6家中概股医药公司，除中概股以外，高瓴还在2020年投资了近30家欧美医疗健康公司。\n除了重点布局的电商、医疗、教育行业，其他热门中概股高瓴也多有涉猎，从B站、万国数据、名创优品、声网，到贝壳找房、华住集团以及三个造车新势力，2020年热门的中概股，除了年底的百度之外高瓴都没有错过。\n高瓴择股能力强的另一个表现是“避坑”能力，2020年中概股最大的两颗雷分别是瑞幸和蛋壳，这两只股票此前也是热门中概股，高瓴却完美避开。除了因为爱奇艺的仓位亏掉约1亿美元，高瓴2020年炒中概股几乎没怎么亏到钱。\n第二点是买入策略的不同。\n老虎很少在二级市场买入中概股，大多数持仓都是在私募阶段完成的投资。唯一的例外是电商，2020年老虎只在二级市场买入京东、阿里、拼多多的股票。电商行业也是老虎最熟悉的领域，不论是早年投资当当卓越，还是投资京东一战成名，中国电商可以说是老虎跻身顶级PE的龙门。\n高瓴也是通过京东的案子拿到顶级PE的入场券，但炒中概股并不局限于电商。2020年高瓴至少在二级市场买入过14只中概股，完美日记、万国数据、蔚来汽车这几个2020年的热门中概股高瓴都曾在二级市场买入，还以基石投资者的身份参与了理想汽车和贝壳找房的“打新”。\n\n另外值得一提的是对B站的投资，B站股价从2019年的跨年晚会后开始起飞，高瓴并不是B站的早期投资者，直到2020年Q4才开始增持B站，公开信息中并没有B站引入高瓴战投的新闻，6也就是说高瓴大概率是在二级市场买入的B站股票。\n2018年Q4买入200万股，2019年前三季度分别买入130万、450万和480万股，高瓴总共的持仓成本不到1.8亿美元，却赚了将近6.5亿美元，回报高达260%，比大部分押中B站的VC挣得都多。\n第三点则是投资风格的区别。\n老虎的中概股投资风格相对稳健。对于京东、拼多多、阿里巴巴、新东方、好未来这些重仓中概股，老虎不论是增持还是减持，每次的幅度都不大。比如2020Q1减持京东的比例约4%，2020Q2增持的比例约2%，还有Q4减持新东方，比例不超过15%。\n高瓴则喜欢波段操作，甚至动辄“All in”。比如京东，Q2高瓴先是减持30%，Q3直接加仓100%，又在Q4减持近20%，操作不仅频繁，每个季度加持减持的比例也远超老虎。还有去年四季度对处于高点的造车新势力，高瓴直接清仓了未来、小鹏、理想的股票。2020年高瓴一共清仓了13只中概股，其中5只股票都是在年内买入。\n最后还有一个特别有意思的现象，就是对于爱奇艺和阿里巴巴两只股票的不同处理。\n阿里和爱奇艺都是老虎和高瓴重仓的股票，2020年初高瓴分别持有近200万股阿里股票（价值约4亿美元）和1200万股爱奇艺股票（价值约4亿美元），老虎分别持有350万股阿里股票（约7亿美元）和100万股爱奇艺股票（价值约2100万美元）。\n2020年这两家公司都遇到了麻烦，年初爱奇艺遭遇做空机构狙击，之后传出遭到sec调查；阿里巴巴则在年底因为国内反垄断调查和蚂蚁上市失败陷入麻烦。\n老虎在Q2清仓了爱奇艺的股票，但始终没有减持阿里的股票，甚至导致2020年阿里股票的收益在Q4减少了约3亿美元；高瓴在阿里这件事上杀伐果断，在Q4直接清仓了阿里股票，却没有“抛弃”爱奇艺，只在Q3、Q4减持了约800万股，约是持股的1/6。\n面对同样的危机，面对不同的公司，老虎和高瓴却做出了两种截然相反的操作，背后的东西值得我们好好思考。\n成也京东，成多少也是京东\n最后，我们来聊一聊老虎和高瓴在京东的投资。\n高瓴和老虎都是因为京东一战成名，由此跻身全球顶尖PE的行列。2003年启动第一期私募基金募集的老虎，之后的11年一共完成了约60亿美元的募资，而在京东2014年上市后，老虎7年里完成了将近180亿美元募资，是之前11年的3倍。\n高瓴也是如此，2005年张磊成立高瓴资本时，手中拿到的不过是大卫·史文森等提供的2000万美元种子，2014年京东上市后高瓴募资加快，到2020年时资管规模已经超过5000亿元（约760亿美元）。\n先回顾一下老虎和高瓴在上市前对京东的投资。\n高瓴在2010年投资京东C轮融资，根据媒体报道投资总额为3亿美元，其中6500万美元是以可转债的方式投资。这部分可转债在2012年转换成8600万股普通股，加上C轮取得的2.3亿股C系列优先股，高瓴在京东上市后一共持有3.19亿普通股（相当于1.59亿ADS）。\n老虎在则在2010年-2012年之间数次投资京东，其中2012年投资京东7500万美元，根据招股书上市前老虎持有京东4.45亿普通股（相当于2.22亿ADS）。但在京东上市后老虎把大部分的股票都分给了LP，截至2014年底属于老虎环球基金的股票只剩下500万股。\n\n如上图所示，2014年底高瓴还持有1.52亿股京东股票，2015年高瓴开始慢慢减持京东股票，其中2015年减持约3000万股，获利超过8亿美元。2016年高瓴进一步加快减持速度，到2018年Q2已经减持到约2100万股，期间获利约34亿美元，此时高瓴投资京东的回报已经将近50亿美元。\n2018年因为刘强东明州事件的影响，京东股价开始进入一个漫长的停滞期，此时高瓴也放缓了减持的动作，2019年还在两个季度买入少量京东股票。\n到了2020年初，高瓴持有的京东股票降至1200万股，总市值约4.2亿美元。而因为疫情加快业绩复苏，京东在2020年股价暴涨，高瓴也在2020年Q2投入超过5亿美元买入京东股票，最终2020年高瓴在京东股票上收益约8亿美元。\n老虎则与京东的操作正好相反，上市后老虎把大部分的股票分给了LP，2014年底的持仓只剩500万股。但此后老虎开始增持京东，2015年Q1和Q2老虎投入近20亿美元，通过旗下基金先后买入1600万和5000万股京东股票。\n之后几年老虎以非常缓慢的速度减持京东股票，到2018Q2时持股降至4000万股，减持约40%（同期高瓴已经减持了将近90%），而在2018年明州事件之后，老虎选择进一步增持京东，接下来的2个季度以约5亿美元的对价买入近1600万股京东股票。\n到2020年初，老虎持有京东5300万股，在这一年里，股价上涨超过2倍的京东，为老虎赚了将近28亿美元。\n京东上市时，按照发行价计算高瓴的回报约30亿美元，此后通过长期持有，高瓴在京东上多赚了25亿美元；老虎在京东上市后给LP们分了价值42亿美元的股票（按照发行价计算），之后炒了7年京东股票，老虎自己又赚了31亿美元。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1155,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":375375566,"gmtCreate":1619312734555,"gmtModify":1704722253515,"author":{"id":"3568196683280287","authorId":"3568196683280287","name":"杨胜胜","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/39b07ed709bc0fdb73851119781eaa64","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3568196683280287","authorIdStr":"3568196683280287"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"??","listText":"??","text":"??","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/375375566","repostId":"1104243150","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1104243150","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"预判经济形势，解读公共政策，提供及时信息，推送专业报告。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"泽平宏观","id":"49","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/947583bee22e443aa795464217837990"},"pubTimestamp":1619305333,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1104243150?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-04-25 07:02","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"Dialogue with Ren Zeping: What should I do if inflation comes? House Prices, the Stock Market and the Future of 2021","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1104243150","media":"泽平宏观","summary":"4月16日上午10点，国家统计局公布了2021年一季度宏观经济报告，其中有非常多数据，最引人关注的，就是今年一季度我们的GDP同比增长了18.3%。这个亮眼的数据，是建立在去年疫情暴发，中国经济遭遇毁","content":"<p>At 10 a.m. on April 16, the National Bureau of Statistics released the macroeconomic report for the first quarter of 2021, which contains a lot of data. The most interesting one is,<b>That is, in the first quarter of this year, our GDP increased by 18.3% year-on-year.</b></p><p>This eye-catching data is based on a strong rebound against the background of the outbreak of the epidemic last year and the devastating blow to China's economy.</p><p>What does this 18.3% really mean?</p><p>Just two hours after the report was released, Mr. Wu Xiaobo connected with Dr. Ren Zeping and discussed these data for more than an hour in the live broadcast room of Zeping Macro Video Account and Wu Xiaobo Channel Video Account.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b6ad030eca06021626bc8fbbf0c7ebb2\" tg-width=\"1016\" tg-height=\"546\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The minibus will present you with the essence of their conversation.</p><p><b>What does 18.3% mean?</b></p><p><b>Wu Xiaobo:</b>In the first quarter of 2021, GDP increased by 18.3% year-on-year. What does this mean?</p><p><b>Ren Zeping:</b>It looks like 18.3% is very high. In fact, let's calculate that due to the epidemic last year, the growth rate in the first quarter was-6.8%, so there is a base reason for it.<b>Excluding this reason, our compound average growth rate for two consecutive years is 5%.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/593bacc92fa07c7545a37642de2372ef\" tg-width=\"719\" tg-height=\"511\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>But one of the signals it sends is,<b>Since the recovery in the second quarter of last year, by the fourth quarter of last year, China's economy has returned to normal growth levels.</b></p><p>The second point is that China is truly ahead of the world in fighting the epidemic and economic recovery this time.</p><p>The third is the impact of this economic recovery on policies and the stock market.</p><p>Let's talk about the impact on policy first.</p><p>Since the economic recovery in the second quarter of last year, especially<b>In the fourth quarter of last year, our economic growth rate returned to more than 6%. At this time, our monetary policy has been adjusted, from the original easing to the so-called normalization of monetary policy.</b></p><p>That's why I said at the end of last year<b>Inflation expectations</b>, said earlier this year<b>Liquidity inflection point.</b></p><p><b>More importantly, the market style of A shares has changed.</b></p><p><b>After the turning point of liquidity came out, the entire market switched from the original high-valuation sector to the beneficiary of cyclical products, the low-valuation sector and the sector that benefited from the recovery of global trade. This is in the same strain as the big logic we mentioned before.</b></p><p>But there is another issue worth noting here.</p><p><b>Now China and the United States are not on the same track. In terms of recovery, China's economy is three quarters ahead of the U.S. economy, which actually only started to recover at the beginning of this year. We are in the process of normalizing monetary policy, and because the United States has just begun to recover, its demand for monetary policy easing is still very strong.</b></p><p><b>That's why our stock market style switching has even undergone a round of adjustments, but U.S. stocks are still hitting new highs. The reason behind it is that the cycle of economic recovery is different, and the tightness of their respective monetary policies is also different.</b></p><p>Overall, the results of economic recovery are still very brilliant. I think this data objectively speaking is a tribute to our enterprises, including our medical professionals, who have made contributions on various anti-epidemic fronts in the past year.</p><p><b>Wu Xiaobo: You first put forward two macro judgments, inflation expectation and liquidity inflection point, which caused a great controversy in academic circles when you put forward them. I want to know, what kind of data model is your judgment on last year's inflation expectation based on?</b></p><p><b>Ren Zeping: This framework is based on the so-called economic cycle.</b></p><p><b>The economic cycle is generally divided into four stages: recession, recovery, overheating and stagflation</b>, and then recession, recovery, overheating, stagflation.</p><p>The recession is actually from the second half of 2019 to the outbreak of the epidemic, and there is a very obvious recession. Then from Q2 to Q4, it recovered.</p><p>but<b>After the fourth quarter of last year, the economy returned to the normal level, and then evolved. It must be that we entered a stage of inflation and overheating, roughly from the end of last year to the first half of this year.</b>So we made such a judgment.</p><p><b>2. CPI can no longer reflect<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/603883\">Common people</a>life</b></p><p><b>Wu Xiaobo:</b>Let me challenge you.<b>You mentioned inflation expectations, but we can see from the macroeconomic data in the first quarter that the national consumer price (CPI) rose by 0.4% year-on-year in March, decreased by 0.2% in February, and decreased by 0.5% month-on-month.</b></p><p>However, we see that commodity prices, some white goods, that is, refrigerators, air conditioners and washing machines, have increased by about 10% in the past quarter; Movie tickets were 40 yuan last year, but now some cinemas have risen to 80 yuan or even 100 yuan; The price of mattresses has increased by 5% to 6% compared with last year.</p><p><b>I'm curious, why<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/603883\">Common people</a>We perceive the rise in commodity prices, but this data from the National Bureau of Statistics tells us that the national consumer price has only increased by 0.4% year-on-year. Why is there such a big difference?</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ae1a5d53526a6af736aac55433116b98\" tg-width=\"1012\" tg-height=\"480\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Ren Zeping:</b>That's a good question, why is the CPI only a few tenths?</p><p>Now everyone generally feels that it can't be all that in fact.<b>In fact, what we feel is that everything else is rising except pork.</b></p><p><b>Wu Xiaobo:</b>In the first quarter of this year, pork production increased by 31.9%, and pork production increased on a large scale, but pork prices fell by 12.5%.</p><p><b>Ren Zeping:</b>Let me explain it briefly to you, because<b>It just so happens that our round of inflation and the pig cycle are misaligned.</b></p><p><b>In 2019, I put forward a sentence at that time, \"After the pigs are removed, there will be deflation.\" Because the economy was not good at that time, the price of pigs was rising, but everything else was fine.</b></p><p><b>Wu Xiaobo:</b>At that time, the CPI reached about 3.0% to 4%, and then you put forward this point of view. After removing the pigs, the CPI actually reached about tenths, or even negative growth.</p><p><b>Ren Zeping:</b>Yeah,<b>Just because in 2020, the price of pork is falling, so this year is a typical \"inflation after the pigs are removed\". You will find that except for pork, everything else is rising.</b></p><p>Commodity prices are rising, house prices are rising, crude oil prices are rising, and everyone's future decoration costs will also rise, because steel and copper have been rising recently.</p><p><b>Then let's look at PPI, which is our industrial product price index. The industrial product price index rose to 4.4% in March, and 3% was the warning line. It has already risen to 4.4%.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/55a2d5662aa91388651e325cb518c94f\" tg-width=\"576\" tg-height=\"338\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Wu Xiaobo:</b>4.4% rose sharply, with a year-on-year increase of 4.4% in March, an expansion of 2.7 percentage points from February. What do you expect to be the price of industrial products in the second quarter?</p><p><b>Ren Zeping:</b>I estimate that it will continue to rise in the second and third quarters.</p><p><b>Wu Xiaobo:</b>So it's not good news.</p><p><b>Ren Zeping:</b>Not good news. Why did it continue to rise in the second quarter?<b>One is the resonance of economic recovery, globally, Europe, America, China, including Japan. In addition, the United States has allowed the U.S. dollar to irresponsibly flood with liquidity. It has launched a $3 trillion infrastructure stimulus plan to compete with China in the field of new infrastructure, but where the money will come from, most of it must be through over-issuing currency.</b></p><p>Back to the topic just now,<b>In the past few years, pork has had too much impact on CPI, but for example, the more representative housing price index has not been brought in.</b></p><p><b>CPI is called the consumer goods price index, which is a basket of residents' expenditures. In terms of residents' expenditure, let's frankly speak, how much pork can we eat? But the proportion of other expenses such as rent is getting higher and higher.</b></p><p><b>Therefore, CPI indicators are increasingly unable to reflect the inflation really experienced by ordinary people. Therefore, we should respect the objective situation, reduce the weight of pigs slightly, and then mention the housing category, including the latest consumption basket of ordinary people, with relatively large weights. In this way, we can look at the economic situation and the regulation of monetary policy more accurately.</b></p><p><b>Wu Xiaobo:</b>All macroeconomic data are based on models. Then if something goes wrong with this model, all the data you export will eventually go wrong.</p><p><b>Ren Zeping:</b>Xiaobo is right. For example, my CPI has only risen by 0.4% this year. If 0.4% is deflation in China according to the standard, it is not called inflation. So what should I do? This year, we must continue to stimulate by issuing currency, and once the currency stimulates, it will be troublesome, and it will go to heaven if it stimulates again.</p><p><b>Wu Xiaobo:</b>You put forward the inflection point of liquidity at the beginning of this year, and there was a lot of controversy when you put forward it. How was this inflection point judged?</p><p><b>Ren Zeping: Since we saw last year that the so-called inflation expectation is about to rise, from the perspective of monetary policy, because it needs to be adjusted counter-cyclically, then with the recovery of the economy and the rise of inflation, monetary policy can no longer be excessively loose, otherwise it will lead to more serious inflation and even economic overheating.</b></p><p><b>Therefore, as a responsible monetary authority, it has the responsibility to normalize monetary policy at the beginning of this year. In fact, we finally recorded that the growth rates of M2 and social financing have declined for two consecutive months.</b></p><p><b>3. The stability of the RMB is the responsibility of the state to the people</b></p><p><b>Wu Xiaobo:</b>Let me ask you a question, what will happen to China's RMB policy and monetary policy when the US government is throwing so much money now?</p><p><b>Ren Zeping:</b>One is the appreciation of the RMB. Because we didn't over-issue currency, we kept the currency value stable. The party that issues excessive currency will definitely depreciate, and the party that prints less currency will appreciate.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e89a0c6a87e487b270cbe57ab5f5e22e\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"454\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Second, there will be a trend of capital inflow. Since last year, a lot of money has flowed into our country.</p><p><b>Wu Xiaobo: Last year, China's foreign investment introduction surpassed the United States for the first time, becoming the largest foreign investment introduction country in the world.</b></p><p><b>Ren Zeping:</b>The reason is very simple. Holding US dollars is a depreciating asset, and holding RMB is an appreciating asset. Therefore, from the perspective of asset allocation, many investors are willing to hold appreciating assets, that is, RMB.</p><p>In addition, China controlled the epidemic well last year, so only China has this condition when the world cannot invest and resume production.</p><p>Another point that I think is very important is that the country, the government and the central bank of the country must be responsible to the common people.</p><p>The normalization of our monetary policy, according to the monetary authorities, is to keep the currency value stable.<b>The stability of currency value is a kind of saying on international occasions, but internally, isn't it the assets in the pockets of our common people? Cash flow assets can not be devalued, right? Can not be too diluted.</b></p><p><b>For example, the United States has over-issued currency without any limit in the past year, which not only diluted the foreign exchange reserves of China, Japan, the Middle East and the world, but also sacrificed the cash assets of its own people, which is very irresponsible. That's why American populism, anti-globalization and Occupy Wall Street movement will prevail. I think it is the excessive issuance of money on the surface, but in fact it is the widening of the gap between social class and social wealth caused by the excessive issuance of money, as well as the turmoil of social thoughts.</b></p><p><b>4. Housing prices will become more and more differentiated</b></p><p><b>Wu Xiaobo:</b>In the first quarter data report just released, there are three data about real estate. Let me read them to you first.</p><p>Investment in real estate development increased by 25.6% year-on-year, the sales area of commercial housing nationwide increased by 63.8% year-on-year, and the sales of commercial housing increased by 88.5% year-on-year, which is the fastest growth in sales, indicating that house prices are still rising.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bcf5f2735dc17e39fb04fbaa2af9a1b9\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"337\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>I have also observed a phenomenon recently. Nowadays, those so-called luxury houses or serviced apartments in large cities have risen very fast recently. There is a data. In 2020, a total of 30,000 houses with a unit price of more than 10 million were sold in China, which is about 400 to 500 billion. Among these 30,000 units, Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen accounted for 20,000 units, and 20,000 units were sold. Shanghai accounted for 10,000 units.</p><p>Then this is faced with a problem. Currency is constantly over-issued, and real estate investment is constantly increasing. What do you think of house prices?</p><p><b>Ren Zeping: I think so. For real estate and housing prices, everyone will remember a word called \"differentiation\" in the future.</b></p><p>As you all know, I put forward an analysis framework in the field of real estate, called:<b>\"Real estate depends on population in the long term, land in the medium term and finance in the short term\".</b></p><p>Looking at the current and future real estate market in China under such a framework, I think these phenomena are not unusual.</p><p><b>In fact, urbanization is divided into two stages. The first is that the population moves from rural areas to cities, and the other is that the population moves from rural areas to cities<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002195\">Two three four five</a>The population of sixth-tier cities is generally rising, so are housing prices. But when the urbanization rate reaches about 60% or above, it is basically in a differentiated pattern.</b></p><p><b>Population flows from low-energy cities, including rural areas and third-and fourth-tier cities, to metropolitan areas and urban agglomerations. Therefore, not only in the past two years, but also in the next 10 or 20 years, everyone will see this kind of differentiation, which has happened in the United States and Japan.</b></p><p><b>Wu Xiaobo:</b>I remember doing a survey in 2013 and 2014. In Jiangsu, such as Wuxi, Suzhou and Changzhou, the house prices are rising, and there is a prefecture-level city called Zhenjiang on the edge. Zhenjiang has had a net population outflow for 11 consecutive years, so its house prices are stagnant.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9ce09dd3fda9d7e6b7c5aadf0be1aacd\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"399\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Therefore, this differentiation actually happened six or seven years ago. According to what Teacher Zeping said just now, this differentiation will become more and more serious in the future. Young people will gather in super cities or a large city circle, and then big cities will produce a huge siphon phenomenon.</p><p>If some cities' industrial economy is unhealthy, there is no good social security system, there is no good entrepreneurial atmosphere, or the housing price is still relatively high, it will force young people to flow out.</p><p><b>5. Exports exceeding expectations are a victory for China's manufacturing industry</b></p><p><b>Wu Xiaobo:</b>Relatively speaking, the RMB is in a state of passive appreciation, which is actually unfavorable to exports, but we see the data of the first quarter:</p><p>In the first quarter, the total import and export volume of goods increased by 29.2% year-on-year, export commodities increased by 38.7% year-on-year, and imports increased by 19.3%. That is to say, our exports are twice that of imports, and then the trade surplus is 759.3 billion yuan. Generally speaking, exports in the first quarter exceeded expectations. What do you think of this phenomenon?</p><p><b>Ren Zeping:</b>Because in the past year, the appreciation of RMB did have a negative effect on our exports, but we still have many positive effects to offset its negative effects.</p><p><b>▶ ▷ First,</b>In the past year, most of the world's major manufacturing countries have been unable to resume normal production, such as Germany and the United States. Only China has the ability to resume normal production, so it is actually China that is ensuring global supply.</p><p><b>▶ ▷ And second,</b>The strong competitiveness of China's manufacturing industry. Over the years, through technological iterations, including our replacement of labor by machines, including various cost reductions, we have maintained the strong competitiveness of our manufacturing industry.</p><p><b>▶ ▷ And third,</b>I think it has something to do with an issue advocated by Brother Xiaobo for a long time, the rise of new domestic products.</p><p><b>Wu Xiaobo:</b>Let me add two more points. The first point is that after the epidemic last year, China was the world's largest manufacturing country, so our supply chain has not been broken. Because we were the first to control the epidemic, China's entire production system is still recovering completely.</p><p>I started running China's first automobile factory in April last year. On April 8th, Wuhan had not yet opened, but in March, the automobile factory in Wuhan had already started to resume work. By June, the production capacity of all vehicle companies in China had recovered to 80% of the same period last year.<b>Therefore, I think the integrity of the supply chain is a major benefit for China to this round of global trade and global manufacturing.</b></p><p>The second point is the issue of new domestic products you just mentioned.</p><p>Last year, I went to research, and then found that all China's exports were OEM, that is, they all used other people's brands. Nowadays, a large number of Chinese goods exported have their own brands.</p><p>Today, there are about tens of thousands of independent brands of goods sold all over China. These brands, through their own cheap and high-quality ways, have achieved a new brand raid. This is one of the most fundamental reasons why Chinese goods can be exported beyond expectations:<b>Our competitiveness, our channel capabilities, and our brand building capabilities have all withstood the test under this round of COVID-19 pandemic.</b></p><p><b>6. Grasp the switching of stock market styles</b></p><p><b>Wu Xiaobo:</b>What do you think of the current decline in the stock market in the first quarter? What is your judgment on the market outlook?</p><p><b>Ren Zeping:</b>I mainly talk about the style of the market.</p><p><b>For this year, if we continue to follow such a big trend as inflation expectations and liquidity inflection points, then everyone should pay attention to the fact that there will still be obvious changes in the style of the market this year.</b></p><p><b>It turns out that those sectors with high valuations may still be under pressure in the context of rising interest rates, because rising interest rates kill valuations; But because inflation expectations have risen, I think it should be good for cyclical products, those who benefit from price increases, and those who benefit from the recovery of global trade.</b></p><p><b>As for carbon neutrality and carbon peaking, they are all coordinating conditions and catalysts that do not change the general direction.</b></p><p><b>Here's my take on the stock market this year: structural opportunities come alongside structural risks.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c4561949a58567284017c6d57f824eb3\" tg-width=\"449\" tg-height=\"283\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Wu Xiaobo:</b>What should ordinary shareholders and ordinary Christians do?</p><p><b>Ren Zeping:</b>Grasp this switch of market style.<b>Even when you choose a fund manager, you should also choose those who, for example, can quickly make decisions and make style switches, or fund managers who are good at the beneficiary sectors I just mentioned.</b></p><p><b>Wu Xiaobo:</b>Here I would like to remind everyone that Chinese investors have a problem called ADHD: when they buy stocks every day, they will panic when they rise and fall; Okay, now that I've bought funds, Christians also have ADHD. Their professional abilities are obviously given to those fund managers, but they still go to see them every day to see if the funds are rising or falling.</p><p>We have data. When Americans buy a fund, its position adjustment cycle is 16 months, while that of China is two months, a difference of about 8 times.</p><p>The capital market is becoming more rational, the industry is becoming more rational, and our investment philosophy should also be more rational. ADHD is a common problem when we were young in elementary school. If you are in college and still have ADHD, isn't this a very troublesome thing?</p><p><b>7. What to think next in 2021</b></p><p><b>Wu Xiaobo:</b>What do you think of the future? What advice do you have for our business operators, new middle class families in general?</p><p><b>Ren Zeping: I have several judgments.</b></p><p><b>First, in the short term, it is possible that the first quarter is a top of China's economy, or it may enter a top range, while the growth rate in the second and third quarters may gradually slow down.</b></p><p>Because it can't all be 18.3%, later<b>Chinese economy gradually returns to normalization</b>, the base effect of the epidemic will gradually fade<b>。</b>However, you don't have to worry too much about this slowdown. For example, it is normal to drop from 18% to 10%, 8% and 6%.</p><p><b>The potential growth rate of China's economy in the future is about 5% ~ 6%.</b></p><p>The second judgment is that China's monetary authorities are still relatively responsible. Relatively speaking, the currency is actually over-issued, but fortunately, RMB assets are still relatively valuable.</p><p>Third, from a longer-term perspective, including this response to the epidemic, including the previous response to Sino-US trade friction, I think China has responded relatively well.</p><p>Because it is mainly dealt with through reform. In particular, this round of growth trend in China, or the national destiny that everyone talks about, is indeed still on the rise.</p><p>Therefore, for us entrepreneurs and ordinary people, I think we should have confidence in China's economic growth and development.</p><p>Because no one can choose the front, and our camp is very good, we will be lucky enough to witness China surpass the United States to become the largest economy in the world in the next 10 years.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b30837fc9cb7ccb39fd10cbf28f6a5a8\" tg-width=\"1014\" tg-height=\"446\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Wu Xiaobo:</b>Here we talk about the national destiny. We have a data in our economic history research, that is, China was the largest economy in the world for a long time during the period of farming civilization, but by 1828, China's economic aggregate was surpassed by Britain.</p><p>Nearly 200 years from 1828 to now. Today, China's economic aggregate is 70% of that of the United States. If this development speed is maintained, China's economic aggregate should have the opportunity to surpass that of the United States around 2028 or 2030, that is, in 200 years, this country will become the world's largest economy.</p><p><b>So I think each of us is a son and a product of an era. Then confidence in oneself, first of all, comes from confidence in the growth of this country and the national economy.</b></p><p>If you think the elevator has started to go down and stopped running, can you outrun the elevator no matter how fast you run? If we are optimistic about the national economic development in the medium and long term, then our remaining question is what should we do? Do we have some constructive and rational ways to stand still and run forward in the elevator, or in the elevator, I take off my shoes and run forward faster than others.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Dialogue with Ren Zeping: What should I do if inflation comes? 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House Prices, the Stock Market and the Future of 2021\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/49\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/947583bee22e443aa795464217837990);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">泽平宏观 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-04-25 07:02</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>At 10 a.m. on April 16, the National Bureau of Statistics released the macroeconomic report for the first quarter of 2021, which contains a lot of data. The most interesting one is,<b>That is, in the first quarter of this year, our GDP increased by 18.3% year-on-year.</b></p><p>This eye-catching data is based on a strong rebound against the background of the outbreak of the epidemic last year and the devastating blow to China's economy.</p><p>What does this 18.3% really mean?</p><p>Just two hours after the report was released, Mr. Wu Xiaobo connected with Dr. Ren Zeping and discussed these data for more than an hour in the live broadcast room of Zeping Macro Video Account and Wu Xiaobo Channel Video Account.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b6ad030eca06021626bc8fbbf0c7ebb2\" tg-width=\"1016\" tg-height=\"546\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The minibus will present you with the essence of their conversation.</p><p><b>What does 18.3% mean?</b></p><p><b>Wu Xiaobo:</b>In the first quarter of 2021, GDP increased by 18.3% year-on-year. What does this mean?</p><p><b>Ren Zeping:</b>It looks like 18.3% is very high. In fact, let's calculate that due to the epidemic last year, the growth rate in the first quarter was-6.8%, so there is a base reason for it.<b>Excluding this reason, our compound average growth rate for two consecutive years is 5%.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/593bacc92fa07c7545a37642de2372ef\" tg-width=\"719\" tg-height=\"511\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>But one of the signals it sends is,<b>Since the recovery in the second quarter of last year, by the fourth quarter of last year, China's economy has returned to normal growth levels.</b></p><p>The second point is that China is truly ahead of the world in fighting the epidemic and economic recovery this time.</p><p>The third is the impact of this economic recovery on policies and the stock market.</p><p>Let's talk about the impact on policy first.</p><p>Since the economic recovery in the second quarter of last year, especially<b>In the fourth quarter of last year, our economic growth rate returned to more than 6%. At this time, our monetary policy has been adjusted, from the original easing to the so-called normalization of monetary policy.</b></p><p>That's why I said at the end of last year<b>Inflation expectations</b>, said earlier this year<b>Liquidity inflection point.</b></p><p><b>More importantly, the market style of A shares has changed.</b></p><p><b>After the turning point of liquidity came out, the entire market switched from the original high-valuation sector to the beneficiary of cyclical products, the low-valuation sector and the sector that benefited from the recovery of global trade. This is in the same strain as the big logic we mentioned before.</b></p><p>But there is another issue worth noting here.</p><p><b>Now China and the United States are not on the same track. In terms of recovery, China's economy is three quarters ahead of the U.S. economy, which actually only started to recover at the beginning of this year. We are in the process of normalizing monetary policy, and because the United States has just begun to recover, its demand for monetary policy easing is still very strong.</b></p><p><b>That's why our stock market style switching has even undergone a round of adjustments, but U.S. stocks are still hitting new highs. The reason behind it is that the cycle of economic recovery is different, and the tightness of their respective monetary policies is also different.</b></p><p>Overall, the results of economic recovery are still very brilliant. I think this data objectively speaking is a tribute to our enterprises, including our medical professionals, who have made contributions on various anti-epidemic fronts in the past year.</p><p><b>Wu Xiaobo: You first put forward two macro judgments, inflation expectation and liquidity inflection point, which caused a great controversy in academic circles when you put forward them. I want to know, what kind of data model is your judgment on last year's inflation expectation based on?</b></p><p><b>Ren Zeping: This framework is based on the so-called economic cycle.</b></p><p><b>The economic cycle is generally divided into four stages: recession, recovery, overheating and stagflation</b>, and then recession, recovery, overheating, stagflation.</p><p>The recession is actually from the second half of 2019 to the outbreak of the epidemic, and there is a very obvious recession. Then from Q2 to Q4, it recovered.</p><p>but<b>After the fourth quarter of last year, the economy returned to the normal level, and then evolved. It must be that we entered a stage of inflation and overheating, roughly from the end of last year to the first half of this year.</b>So we made such a judgment.</p><p><b>2. CPI can no longer reflect<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/603883\">Common people</a>life</b></p><p><b>Wu Xiaobo:</b>Let me challenge you.<b>You mentioned inflation expectations, but we can see from the macroeconomic data in the first quarter that the national consumer price (CPI) rose by 0.4% year-on-year in March, decreased by 0.2% in February, and decreased by 0.5% month-on-month.</b></p><p>However, we see that commodity prices, some white goods, that is, refrigerators, air conditioners and washing machines, have increased by about 10% in the past quarter; Movie tickets were 40 yuan last year, but now some cinemas have risen to 80 yuan or even 100 yuan; The price of mattresses has increased by 5% to 6% compared with last year.</p><p><b>I'm curious, why<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/603883\">Common people</a>We perceive the rise in commodity prices, but this data from the National Bureau of Statistics tells us that the national consumer price has only increased by 0.4% year-on-year. Why is there such a big difference?</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ae1a5d53526a6af736aac55433116b98\" tg-width=\"1012\" tg-height=\"480\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Ren Zeping:</b>That's a good question, why is the CPI only a few tenths?</p><p>Now everyone generally feels that it can't be all that in fact.<b>In fact, what we feel is that everything else is rising except pork.</b></p><p><b>Wu Xiaobo:</b>In the first quarter of this year, pork production increased by 31.9%, and pork production increased on a large scale, but pork prices fell by 12.5%.</p><p><b>Ren Zeping:</b>Let me explain it briefly to you, because<b>It just so happens that our round of inflation and the pig cycle are misaligned.</b></p><p><b>In 2019, I put forward a sentence at that time, \"After the pigs are removed, there will be deflation.\" Because the economy was not good at that time, the price of pigs was rising, but everything else was fine.</b></p><p><b>Wu Xiaobo:</b>At that time, the CPI reached about 3.0% to 4%, and then you put forward this point of view. After removing the pigs, the CPI actually reached about tenths, or even negative growth.</p><p><b>Ren Zeping:</b>Yeah,<b>Just because in 2020, the price of pork is falling, so this year is a typical \"inflation after the pigs are removed\". You will find that except for pork, everything else is rising.</b></p><p>Commodity prices are rising, house prices are rising, crude oil prices are rising, and everyone's future decoration costs will also rise, because steel and copper have been rising recently.</p><p><b>Then let's look at PPI, which is our industrial product price index. The industrial product price index rose to 4.4% in March, and 3% was the warning line. It has already risen to 4.4%.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/55a2d5662aa91388651e325cb518c94f\" tg-width=\"576\" tg-height=\"338\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Wu Xiaobo:</b>4.4% rose sharply, with a year-on-year increase of 4.4% in March, an expansion of 2.7 percentage points from February. What do you expect to be the price of industrial products in the second quarter?</p><p><b>Ren Zeping:</b>I estimate that it will continue to rise in the second and third quarters.</p><p><b>Wu Xiaobo:</b>So it's not good news.</p><p><b>Ren Zeping:</b>Not good news. Why did it continue to rise in the second quarter?<b>One is the resonance of economic recovery, globally, Europe, America, China, including Japan. In addition, the United States has allowed the U.S. dollar to irresponsibly flood with liquidity. It has launched a $3 trillion infrastructure stimulus plan to compete with China in the field of new infrastructure, but where the money will come from, most of it must be through over-issuing currency.</b></p><p>Back to the topic just now,<b>In the past few years, pork has had too much impact on CPI, but for example, the more representative housing price index has not been brought in.</b></p><p><b>CPI is called the consumer goods price index, which is a basket of residents' expenditures. In terms of residents' expenditure, let's frankly speak, how much pork can we eat? But the proportion of other expenses such as rent is getting higher and higher.</b></p><p><b>Therefore, CPI indicators are increasingly unable to reflect the inflation really experienced by ordinary people. Therefore, we should respect the objective situation, reduce the weight of pigs slightly, and then mention the housing category, including the latest consumption basket of ordinary people, with relatively large weights. In this way, we can look at the economic situation and the regulation of monetary policy more accurately.</b></p><p><b>Wu Xiaobo:</b>All macroeconomic data are based on models. Then if something goes wrong with this model, all the data you export will eventually go wrong.</p><p><b>Ren Zeping:</b>Xiaobo is right. For example, my CPI has only risen by 0.4% this year. If 0.4% is deflation in China according to the standard, it is not called inflation. So what should I do? This year, we must continue to stimulate by issuing currency, and once the currency stimulates, it will be troublesome, and it will go to heaven if it stimulates again.</p><p><b>Wu Xiaobo:</b>You put forward the inflection point of liquidity at the beginning of this year, and there was a lot of controversy when you put forward it. How was this inflection point judged?</p><p><b>Ren Zeping: Since we saw last year that the so-called inflation expectation is about to rise, from the perspective of monetary policy, because it needs to be adjusted counter-cyclically, then with the recovery of the economy and the rise of inflation, monetary policy can no longer be excessively loose, otherwise it will lead to more serious inflation and even economic overheating.</b></p><p><b>Therefore, as a responsible monetary authority, it has the responsibility to normalize monetary policy at the beginning of this year. In fact, we finally recorded that the growth rates of M2 and social financing have declined for two consecutive months.</b></p><p><b>3. The stability of the RMB is the responsibility of the state to the people</b></p><p><b>Wu Xiaobo:</b>Let me ask you a question, what will happen to China's RMB policy and monetary policy when the US government is throwing so much money now?</p><p><b>Ren Zeping:</b>One is the appreciation of the RMB. Because we didn't over-issue currency, we kept the currency value stable. The party that issues excessive currency will definitely depreciate, and the party that prints less currency will appreciate.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e89a0c6a87e487b270cbe57ab5f5e22e\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"454\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Second, there will be a trend of capital inflow. Since last year, a lot of money has flowed into our country.</p><p><b>Wu Xiaobo: Last year, China's foreign investment introduction surpassed the United States for the first time, becoming the largest foreign investment introduction country in the world.</b></p><p><b>Ren Zeping:</b>The reason is very simple. Holding US dollars is a depreciating asset, and holding RMB is an appreciating asset. Therefore, from the perspective of asset allocation, many investors are willing to hold appreciating assets, that is, RMB.</p><p>In addition, China controlled the epidemic well last year, so only China has this condition when the world cannot invest and resume production.</p><p>Another point that I think is very important is that the country, the government and the central bank of the country must be responsible to the common people.</p><p>The normalization of our monetary policy, according to the monetary authorities, is to keep the currency value stable.<b>The stability of currency value is a kind of saying on international occasions, but internally, isn't it the assets in the pockets of our common people? Cash flow assets can not be devalued, right? Can not be too diluted.</b></p><p><b>For example, the United States has over-issued currency without any limit in the past year, which not only diluted the foreign exchange reserves of China, Japan, the Middle East and the world, but also sacrificed the cash assets of its own people, which is very irresponsible. That's why American populism, anti-globalization and Occupy Wall Street movement will prevail. I think it is the excessive issuance of money on the surface, but in fact it is the widening of the gap between social class and social wealth caused by the excessive issuance of money, as well as the turmoil of social thoughts.</b></p><p><b>4. Housing prices will become more and more differentiated</b></p><p><b>Wu Xiaobo:</b>In the first quarter data report just released, there are three data about real estate. Let me read them to you first.</p><p>Investment in real estate development increased by 25.6% year-on-year, the sales area of commercial housing nationwide increased by 63.8% year-on-year, and the sales of commercial housing increased by 88.5% year-on-year, which is the fastest growth in sales, indicating that house prices are still rising.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bcf5f2735dc17e39fb04fbaa2af9a1b9\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"337\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>I have also observed a phenomenon recently. Nowadays, those so-called luxury houses or serviced apartments in large cities have risen very fast recently. There is a data. In 2020, a total of 30,000 houses with a unit price of more than 10 million were sold in China, which is about 400 to 500 billion. Among these 30,000 units, Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen accounted for 20,000 units, and 20,000 units were sold. Shanghai accounted for 10,000 units.</p><p>Then this is faced with a problem. Currency is constantly over-issued, and real estate investment is constantly increasing. What do you think of house prices?</p><p><b>Ren Zeping: I think so. For real estate and housing prices, everyone will remember a word called \"differentiation\" in the future.</b></p><p>As you all know, I put forward an analysis framework in the field of real estate, called:<b>\"Real estate depends on population in the long term, land in the medium term and finance in the short term\".</b></p><p>Looking at the current and future real estate market in China under such a framework, I think these phenomena are not unusual.</p><p><b>In fact, urbanization is divided into two stages. The first is that the population moves from rural areas to cities, and the other is that the population moves from rural areas to cities<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002195\">Two three four five</a>The population of sixth-tier cities is generally rising, so are housing prices. But when the urbanization rate reaches about 60% or above, it is basically in a differentiated pattern.</b></p><p><b>Population flows from low-energy cities, including rural areas and third-and fourth-tier cities, to metropolitan areas and urban agglomerations. Therefore, not only in the past two years, but also in the next 10 or 20 years, everyone will see this kind of differentiation, which has happened in the United States and Japan.</b></p><p><b>Wu Xiaobo:</b>I remember doing a survey in 2013 and 2014. In Jiangsu, such as Wuxi, Suzhou and Changzhou, the house prices are rising, and there is a prefecture-level city called Zhenjiang on the edge. Zhenjiang has had a net population outflow for 11 consecutive years, so its house prices are stagnant.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9ce09dd3fda9d7e6b7c5aadf0be1aacd\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"399\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Therefore, this differentiation actually happened six or seven years ago. According to what Teacher Zeping said just now, this differentiation will become more and more serious in the future. Young people will gather in super cities or a large city circle, and then big cities will produce a huge siphon phenomenon.</p><p>If some cities' industrial economy is unhealthy, there is no good social security system, there is no good entrepreneurial atmosphere, or the housing price is still relatively high, it will force young people to flow out.</p><p><b>5. Exports exceeding expectations are a victory for China's manufacturing industry</b></p><p><b>Wu Xiaobo:</b>Relatively speaking, the RMB is in a state of passive appreciation, which is actually unfavorable to exports, but we see the data of the first quarter:</p><p>In the first quarter, the total import and export volume of goods increased by 29.2% year-on-year, export commodities increased by 38.7% year-on-year, and imports increased by 19.3%. That is to say, our exports are twice that of imports, and then the trade surplus is 759.3 billion yuan. Generally speaking, exports in the first quarter exceeded expectations. What do you think of this phenomenon?</p><p><b>Ren Zeping:</b>Because in the past year, the appreciation of RMB did have a negative effect on our exports, but we still have many positive effects to offset its negative effects.</p><p><b>▶ ▷ First,</b>In the past year, most of the world's major manufacturing countries have been unable to resume normal production, such as Germany and the United States. Only China has the ability to resume normal production, so it is actually China that is ensuring global supply.</p><p><b>▶ ▷ And second,</b>The strong competitiveness of China's manufacturing industry. Over the years, through technological iterations, including our replacement of labor by machines, including various cost reductions, we have maintained the strong competitiveness of our manufacturing industry.</p><p><b>▶ ▷ And third,</b>I think it has something to do with an issue advocated by Brother Xiaobo for a long time, the rise of new domestic products.</p><p><b>Wu Xiaobo:</b>Let me add two more points. The first point is that after the epidemic last year, China was the world's largest manufacturing country, so our supply chain has not been broken. Because we were the first to control the epidemic, China's entire production system is still recovering completely.</p><p>I started running China's first automobile factory in April last year. On April 8th, Wuhan had not yet opened, but in March, the automobile factory in Wuhan had already started to resume work. By June, the production capacity of all vehicle companies in China had recovered to 80% of the same period last year.<b>Therefore, I think the integrity of the supply chain is a major benefit for China to this round of global trade and global manufacturing.</b></p><p>The second point is the issue of new domestic products you just mentioned.</p><p>Last year, I went to research, and then found that all China's exports were OEM, that is, they all used other people's brands. Nowadays, a large number of Chinese goods exported have their own brands.</p><p>Today, there are about tens of thousands of independent brands of goods sold all over China. These brands, through their own cheap and high-quality ways, have achieved a new brand raid. This is one of the most fundamental reasons why Chinese goods can be exported beyond expectations:<b>Our competitiveness, our channel capabilities, and our brand building capabilities have all withstood the test under this round of COVID-19 pandemic.</b></p><p><b>6. Grasp the switching of stock market styles</b></p><p><b>Wu Xiaobo:</b>What do you think of the current decline in the stock market in the first quarter? What is your judgment on the market outlook?</p><p><b>Ren Zeping:</b>I mainly talk about the style of the market.</p><p><b>For this year, if we continue to follow such a big trend as inflation expectations and liquidity inflection points, then everyone should pay attention to the fact that there will still be obvious changes in the style of the market this year.</b></p><p><b>It turns out that those sectors with high valuations may still be under pressure in the context of rising interest rates, because rising interest rates kill valuations; But because inflation expectations have risen, I think it should be good for cyclical products, those who benefit from price increases, and those who benefit from the recovery of global trade.</b></p><p><b>As for carbon neutrality and carbon peaking, they are all coordinating conditions and catalysts that do not change the general direction.</b></p><p><b>Here's my take on the stock market this year: structural opportunities come alongside structural risks.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c4561949a58567284017c6d57f824eb3\" tg-width=\"449\" tg-height=\"283\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Wu Xiaobo:</b>What should ordinary shareholders and ordinary Christians do?</p><p><b>Ren Zeping:</b>Grasp this switch of market style.<b>Even when you choose a fund manager, you should also choose those who, for example, can quickly make decisions and make style switches, or fund managers who are good at the beneficiary sectors I just mentioned.</b></p><p><b>Wu Xiaobo:</b>Here I would like to remind everyone that Chinese investors have a problem called ADHD: when they buy stocks every day, they will panic when they rise and fall; Okay, now that I've bought funds, Christians also have ADHD. Their professional abilities are obviously given to those fund managers, but they still go to see them every day to see if the funds are rising or falling.</p><p>We have data. When Americans buy a fund, its position adjustment cycle is 16 months, while that of China is two months, a difference of about 8 times.</p><p>The capital market is becoming more rational, the industry is becoming more rational, and our investment philosophy should also be more rational. ADHD is a common problem when we were young in elementary school. If you are in college and still have ADHD, isn't this a very troublesome thing?</p><p><b>7. What to think next in 2021</b></p><p><b>Wu Xiaobo:</b>What do you think of the future? What advice do you have for our business operators, new middle class families in general?</p><p><b>Ren Zeping: I have several judgments.</b></p><p><b>First, in the short term, it is possible that the first quarter is a top of China's economy, or it may enter a top range, while the growth rate in the second and third quarters may gradually slow down.</b></p><p>Because it can't all be 18.3%, later<b>Chinese economy gradually returns to normalization</b>, the base effect of the epidemic will gradually fade<b>。</b>However, you don't have to worry too much about this slowdown. For example, it is normal to drop from 18% to 10%, 8% and 6%.</p><p><b>The potential growth rate of China's economy in the future is about 5% ~ 6%.</b></p><p>The second judgment is that China's monetary authorities are still relatively responsible. Relatively speaking, the currency is actually over-issued, but fortunately, RMB assets are still relatively valuable.</p><p>Third, from a longer-term perspective, including this response to the epidemic, including the previous response to Sino-US trade friction, I think China has responded relatively well.</p><p>Because it is mainly dealt with through reform. In particular, this round of growth trend in China, or the national destiny that everyone talks about, is indeed still on the rise.</p><p>Therefore, for us entrepreneurs and ordinary people, I think we should have confidence in China's economic growth and development.</p><p>Because no one can choose the front, and our camp is very good, we will be lucky enough to witness China surpass the United States to become the largest economy in the world in the next 10 years.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b30837fc9cb7ccb39fd10cbf28f6a5a8\" tg-width=\"1014\" tg-height=\"446\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Wu Xiaobo:</b>Here we talk about the national destiny. We have a data in our economic history research, that is, China was the largest economy in the world for a long time during the period of farming civilization, but by 1828, China's economic aggregate was surpassed by Britain.</p><p>Nearly 200 years from 1828 to now. Today, China's economic aggregate is 70% of that of the United States. If this development speed is maintained, China's economic aggregate should have the opportunity to surpass that of the United States around 2028 or 2030, that is, in 200 years, this country will become the world's largest economy.</p><p><b>So I think each of us is a son and a product of an era. Then confidence in oneself, first of all, comes from confidence in the growth of this country and the national economy.</b></p><p>If you think the elevator has started to go down and stopped running, can you outrun the elevator no matter how fast you run? If we are optimistic about the national economic development in the medium and long term, then our remaining question is what should we do? Do we have some constructive and rational ways to stand still and run forward in the elevator, or in the elevator, I take off my shoes and run forward faster than others.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/45beeaf0c418cf3a981fe39c9c445e4e","relate_stocks":{"399001":"深证成指","399006":"创业板指","000001.SH":"上证指数"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1104243150","content_text":"4月16日上午10点，国家统计局公布了2021年一季度宏观经济报告，其中有非常多数据，最引人关注的，就是今年一季度我们的GDP同比增长了18.3%。这个亮眼的数据，是建立在去年疫情暴发，中国经济遭遇毁灭性打击的背景下，一个强劲反弹。这个18.3%，到底意味着什么？就在报告发布两个小时后，吴晓波老师连线任泽平博士，在泽平宏观视频号和吴晓波频道视频号直播间一起，针对这些数据，进行了长达一个多小时的探讨。小巴这就为大家奉上他们本次对谈的精华内容。1、18.3%意味着什么吴晓波：2021年一季度GDP同比增长18.3%，这意味着什么？任泽平：看上去18.3%是很高的。其实我们计算一下，去年由于疫情，一季度增速是-6.8%，所以说它有一个基数原因。剔除掉这个原因，我们连续两年复合平均增速是5%。但它传递的一个信号是，从去年二季度复苏以来，到去年四季度，中国经济已经回到正常的增长水平了。第二个点是中国在这一次抗击疫情和经济复苏方面，真实地走在了全球前面。第三个，就是这种经济复苏对政策的影响和对股市的影响。我们先来说对政策的影响。从去年二季度经济复苏以后，尤其是在今年去年四季度，我们经济增速就回到6%以上了。这时候，我们的货币政策发生了调整，从原来的宽松到所谓的货币政策正常化。这就是为什么我在去年底讲通胀预期，今年年初说流动性拐点。更重要的是A股的市场风格发生了切换。流动性拐点出来以后，整个市场从原来的高估值板块切换到了周期品涨价受益品、低估值板块和受益于全球贸易复苏的板块，这跟之前我们所说的大的逻辑是一脉相承的。但这里还有一个问题值得注意。现在中国和美国不在一个轨道上。在复苏方面，中国经济领先于美国经济三个季度，美国经济实际上从今年年初才开始复苏。我们是处于货币政策正常化的过程当中，而美国因为刚开始复苏，所以它对货币政策宽松的诉求还是非常强烈的。这就是为什么我们的股市风格切换甚至有了一轮调整，但是美股还在创新高。背后的原因就是经济复苏的周期不一样，各自货币政策的松紧程度也不一样。总的来说，经济复苏的成绩还是非常靓丽的。我觉得这个数据客观讲还是对过去一年在各个抗疫战线上做出贡献的，我们的企业、包括我们医学界人士的一次致敬。吴晓波：你最早提出通胀预期和流动性拐点这两个宏观判断，提出的时候还在学界内引起了很大的一个争议。我想知道，你对去年这个通胀预期的判断是建立在怎么样的一个数据模型上？任泽平：这个框架基于的是所谓的经济周期。经济周期一般分为四个阶段：衰退、复苏、过热、滞胀，然后再衰退、复苏、过热、滞胀。衰退实际上是从2019年的下半年到疫情暴发，就存在非常明显的衰退。然后从二季度到四季度，它就复苏了。但是到了去年四季度以后，经济回归到了正常的水平，然后再演化下去，肯定就是我们进入到一个通胀和过热的阶段，大致在去年底到今年上半年，所以我们做出了这样的一个判断。2、CPI已不能反映老百姓生活吴晓波：我挑战你一下。你提到通胀预期，但是我们从一季度的宏观经济数据中看到，3月份全国居民消费价格（CPI）同比上涨了0.4%，2月份下降了0.2%，环比下降0.5%。但是，我们看到大宗商品价格，一些白电也就是冰箱空调洗衣机，过去一个季度里面涨了10%左右；电影票去年是40块钱一张，现在有的电影院涨到了80块甚至100块；床垫价格跟去年比涨了5%~6%。我很好奇，为什么老百姓感知到了商品价格的上涨，但是在国家统计局这个数据告诉我们说全国居民消费价格同比上涨只有0.4%，为什么会有那么大的差异？任泽平：这是一个好问题，为什么CPI只有零点几？现在大家都普遍感觉，说事实上不可能只有这么点。其实我们感觉到的，是除了猪肉没有涨，其他都在涨。吴晓波：今年一季度，猪肉产量增长31.9%，猪肉产量大规模增长，但猪肉价格下降了12.5%。任泽平：我给大家简单解释一下，因为正好我们这一轮通胀和猪周期是错位的。2019年，我当时提出一句话，叫“拿掉猪以后都是通缩”。因为当时经济不好，就猪价在涨，其他的都还好。吴晓波：当时CPI大概达到百分之三点几到四左右，然后你就提了这个观点，把猪去掉以后，实际上CPI是到零点几左右，甚至还是负增长的。任泽平：是的，正好因为2020年，猪肉价格在下跌，因此今年是典型的“拿掉猪以后都是通胀”，你会发现除了猪肉不涨，其他都在涨。大宗商品价格在涨、房价在涨、原油价格在涨，还有大家未来的装修成本也会涨，因为最近钢铁和铜都在上涨。然后我们再来看PPI，就是我们工业品价格指数。工业品价格指数3月份是涨到了4.4%，3%是警戒线，它已经涨到了4.4%了。吴晓波：4.4%涨得很厉害，3月份的同比上涨4.4%，比2月份扩大了2.7个百分点。你估计二季度的工业产品价格会怎么样？任泽平：我估计二季度、三季度会继续上涨。吴晓波：所以不是个好消息。任泽平：不是个好消息。二季度为什么会继续上涨？一个是经济复苏的共振，全球、欧美、中国，包括日本。还有美国让美元不负责任地流动性泛滥，它推出了一个3万亿美元的基建刺激计划，要和中国在新基建领域进行竞争，但钱从哪里来，肯定大部分通过超发货币。说回刚才的话题，过去这几年，猪肉对于CPI的影响太大了，但是比如说，比较有代表性的，住房价格指数没有拉进来。CPI叫居民消费品价格指数，就是居民支出的一篮子。在居民支出里面，咱们坦率地讲，吃猪肉能吃多少？但是如房租等其他的支出占比是越来越高了。所以CPI的指标越来越不能够反映老百姓真实体验到的通胀。因此要尊重客观情况，把猪的权重稍微降一降，然后把居住类的、包括老百姓现在最新的消费篮子里面权重比较大的提一提，这样的话我们看经济形势也好，货币政策的调控也好，能够看得更精准一点。吴晓波：所有的宏观经济数据都是建立在模型基础上的。那如果这个模型出了问题的话，你最终所有导出的数据都会出问题。任泽平：晓波说得对。比如说我今年CPI只上涨了0.4%，如果按照标准，0.4%在中国属于通缩，就不叫通胀了，那么怎么办？肯定今年要通过发货币继续刺激，而一旦货币刺激那麻烦了，再刺激那都上天了。吴晓波：你今年年初提出流动性拐点，提出来的时候也是有很多的争议，这个拐点又是怎么被判断出来的？任泽平：既然我们在去年已经看到了所谓通胀预期要起来了，那么从货币政策的角度，因为它要逆周期调节，那么随着经济的复苏，随着通胀起来以后，货币政策就不能再过度宽松了，否则会引发更严重的通胀，甚至经济过热等。所以作为一个负责任的货币当局，它是有责任在今年初把货币政策正常化的，实际上，我们最后记录到，连续两个月M2、社融增速都是下来的。3、人民币稳定是国家对老百姓负责吴晓波：我请教一个问题，在美国政府如今这么大撒钱的情况下，我们中国的人民币政策和货币政策会出现什么样的情况？任泽平：一个就是人民币升值。因为我们没有超发货币，因此保持住了币值的稳定。超发货币的一方，肯定贬值，印少的一方升值。第二个，会有资金流入的趋势。从去年以来，还有很多资金流入到我们国家。吴晓波：去年中国的外资引入是第一次超过美国，成为全球第一大的外资引进国。任泽平：道理很简单，持有美元是一个贬值资产，持有人民币是一个升值资产，所以说从资产配置的角度，让很多投资者愿意持有升值资产，就是人民币。加上中国去年疫情控制得好，所以说在全球都不能进行投资、恢复生产的情况下，只有中国具备这个条件。还有一个我觉得很重要的一点就是国家、政府和国家的央行一定要对老百姓负责。我们的货币政策正常化，按照货币当局讲就是要保持币值的稳定。币值的稳定它在国际场合上是一种说法，但对内部来说，那不就是我们老百姓口袋里的资产，现金流资产能够不被贬值，对吧？能够不被稀释得过多。像美国它过去这一年无上限地超发货币，除了稀释了像中国、日本、中东、全世界的外汇储备之外，其实也牺牲了自己老百姓的现金资产，是很不负责任的。这就是为什么美国民粹主义、逆全球化、占领华尔街运动，这些思潮会盛行。我认为它表面上是货币超发，实际上是货币超发带来的社会阶层、社会财富差距的拉大，以及社会思潮的动荡。4、房价会越来越分化吴晓波：在刚刚公布的一季度数据报告中，关于房地产有三个数据，我给大家先念一下。房地产开发投资同比增长25.6%，全国商品房销售面积同比增长63.8%，商品房的销售额同比增长88.5%，就是销售额增长最快，说明房价还在涨。我近期还观察到一个现象，现在大型城市的那些所谓豪宅或者酒店式公寓，最近涨得非常快。有一个数据，2020年全中国1000万以上单价的房子一共是卖掉了3万套，算一下大概四五千亿，这3万套中，北上广深占到2万套，2万套中的上海占了1万套。那么这就面临一个问题，货币在不断地超发，房地产的投资也在不断地增加，你怎么看房价？任泽平：我觉得是这样对于房地产还有房价，未来大家就记住一个词叫“分化”。大家知道，我是在房地产领域提出过一个分析框架，叫：“房地产，长期看人口，中期看土地，短期看金融”。放在这样的框架下来讲来看当前以及未来中国的房地产市场，这些现象我觉得是不稀奇的。其实城镇化分为两个阶段，第一个是人口从农村到城市，一二三四五六线城市人口普涨，所以房价也是普涨。但是当城镇化率在到达60%左右或者60%以上以后，那么基本就处于一个分化的格局。人口从低能级城市包括农村和三四线城市，往都市圈和城市群流入。所以，不仅是过去这两年，未来10年、20年，大家就会看到这种分化，这在美国、日本都发生过。吴晓波：我记得在2013年、2014年当年做过一个调研，在江苏地区，比如说无锡、苏州、常州它的房价在涨，边上有个地级市叫做镇江，镇江连续11年，人口是净流出的，所以它的房价是停滞的。因此，这个分化其实在六七年前就已经发生了，按刚才泽平老师讲的，未来这种分化景象会越来越严重，年轻人会向超级城市或者一个大型城市圈聚集，然后大城市会产生一个巨大的虹吸现象。一些城市如果它的产业经济不健康，没有很好的社会保障制度，没有很好的创业氛围，或者房价还处在一个比较高的情况下，那就会倒逼年轻人流出。5、出口超预期是中国制造业的胜利吴晓波：相对来讲，人民币处在一个被动升值的状态，这个状态其实是对出口不利的，但是我们看到一季度的数据：一季度货物进出口总额同比增长29.2%，出口商品同比增长38.7%，进口增长19.3%。也就是我们的出口是进口的一倍，然后贸易顺差7593亿元。总的来说一季度的出口是超预期的，你怎么看这个现象？任泽平：因为在过去的一年，人民币升值确实对我们出口是一个负面作用，但是我们还有很多的正面作用抵消了它的负面作用。▶▷第一，在过去的长达一年的时间，世界上绝大部分的制造业大国都无法恢复正常生产，比如德国、美国，只有中国具备正常恢复生产的能力，所以实际上是中国在保障全球的供应。▶▷第二，中国制造业的强大竞争力。这些年通过技术的迭代，包括我们通过机器替代劳工，包括各种降低成本，很好地保持了我们制造业强大的竞争力。▶▷第三，我觉得跟晓波兄长期倡导的一个问题有关，新国货的崛起。吴晓波：我再补充两点。第一点是去年疫情以后，中国是全球第一制造业大国，所以我们的供应链没有断，因为我们最早控制了疫情，中国的整个生产系统仍然在很完整地复苏。去年4月份我开始跑中国的第一家汽车工厂，4月8日武汉还没有开城，但是3月份的时候武汉的汽车工厂就已经开始复工了。到了6月份的时候，全中国所有的整车公司的产能都已经恢复到去年同期的80%。所以我觉得，供应链完整是中国给这一轮全球贸易和全球制造中的一个重大的一个福利。第二点，就是你刚才讲的新国货问题。去年我去调研，然后发现原来中国出口都是代工，就是都用人家的品牌，如今出口的中国大量商品，都有了自己的品牌。今天在全中国有大概几万个独立品牌的商品在全球做销售。这些品牌，通过自己价廉物美的方式，实现了一次新的品牌性的突袭，这个是中国商品能够出口超预期的一个最根本的原因：我们的竞争力，我们的渠道能力，我们的品牌打造能力，在这一轮的新冠疫情下都经受住了考验。6、把握股市风格的切换吴晓波：怎么看现在一季度股市的下跌，你对后市有什么判断？任泽平：我主要讲讲市场的风格。对于今年，如果说我们持续地在通胀预期和流动性拐点这样一个大的趋势上，那么大家要留意的是，今年市场的风格还是会出现比较明显的变化。原来那些高估值的板块，因为在利率上升的背景下，它可能还是承受压力的，因为利率上升是杀估值的；但是因为通胀预期起来了，那么对于周期品，对于涨价受益的，对受益于全球贸易复苏的，我认为应该是利好的。至于什么碳中和、碳达峰，那都是一些配合性的条件，都是一些催化剂，不改变大方向。这是我对今年股市的看法：结构性的机会与结构性的风险并存。吴晓波：那对一般的股民、一般的基民来说，应该怎么办呢？任泽平：把握住市场风格的这种切换。就是你在挑选基金经理的时候，也要挑选那些比如说能够很快地杀伐决断，做出风格切换的人，或者说擅长做我刚才讲的那几个受益板块的基金经理。吴晓波：这里我要提醒下大家，中国的股民有一个毛病叫做多动症：买股票每天去看，涨也慌跌也慌；好了，现在买基金了，基民也有多动症，他们专业能力明明是拜托给了那些基金经理，但是还是每天去看，去看基金涨了还是跌了。我们有个数据，美国人买一个基金，它的调仓周期是16个月，中国的是两个月，差8倍左右。资本市场在趋于理性化、产业在趋于理性化，我们的投资理念也要趋于理性化。多动症是我们小时候读小学的时候常犯的毛病，如果你读大学了，还多动症，这不是很麻烦的一件事情吗？7、2021年接下来怎么看吴晓波：你对未来怎么看？对我们的企业经营者、一般的新中产家庭来说，你有什么建议？任泽平：我有几个判断。第一个从短期来说，有可能一季度是中国经济的一个顶部，或者进入一个顶部区间，而二季度、三季度的增速有可能会逐步地放缓。因为不可能都是18.3%，后面中国经济逐步回归正常化，疫情这个基数效应将会逐渐消退。不过对这种放缓大家也不用过度担忧，比如从百分之十八点几未来降到10%、降到8%、降到6%很正常。中国经济未来潜在增长率就是5%~6%左右。第二个判断，就是中国的货币当局还是比较负责任的，相对而言其实也货币超发了，但是还好，所以人民币资产还是相对比较保值的。第三个，站在更长期的角度，包括像这次应对疫情，包括之前应对中美贸易摩擦，我觉得中国应对得还是比较好的。因为它主要还是通过改革的方式来应对。尤其是中国这一轮增长的趋势，或者说大家讲的国运，确实还在上升的势头上。所以，对于我们企业家，对我们老百姓，我觉得要对中国的经济增长、中国的发展有信心。因为谁也无法选择战线，而且本身我们阵营就很好，我们将有幸见证在未来10年中国超过美国成为世界第一大经济体。吴晓波：这边讲到了国运。我们在做经济史研究中有一个数据，就是中国在农耕文明时期，很长一段时间里是全球第一大经济体，但是到了1828年的时候，中国的经济总量被英国超越。1828年到现在将近200年。今天中国的经济总量是美国的70%，如果保持这样的发展速度，中国经济总量应该会在2028年或者2030年左右有机会超过美国，也就是整整200年后，这个国家将成为全球第一大经济体。所以我觉得我们每个人都是一个时代的儿子，都是一个时代的产物。然后对自己的信心，首先是来自对这个国家、对国民经济的成长的一个信心。如果你认为电梯已经开始下行了、已经不跑了，你跑得再快能跑得过电梯吗？如果在中长期内我们看好国家经济发展的话，那么我们剩下来的问题是我们应该怎么办，我们有没有一些建设性、理性的方式能够在电梯里面我站着不动，也能往前跑，或者是在电梯里面我还抓紧地脱了鞋子往前跑，跑得比别人更快一点。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"399001":0.9,"399006":0.9,"000001.SH":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1193,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":312500010,"gmtCreate":1612161764330,"gmtModify":1704867550715,"author":{"id":"3568196683280287","authorId":"3568196683280287","name":"杨胜胜","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/39b07ed709bc0fdb73851119781eaa64","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3568196683280287","authorIdStr":"3568196683280287"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"lol","listText":"lol","text":"lol","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/312500010","repostId":"2108278939","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1761,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3527667803686145","authorId":"3527667803686145","name":"社区成长助手","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b7c7106b5c0c8b0037faa67439d898f","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3527667803686145","authorIdStr":"3527667803686145"},"content":"Finally, when you first post [compare heart] [compare heart] post, you can get more exposure by related stocks or related topics. If you want to create high-quality articles, please checkGuidelines for Tiger Community Creation","text":"Finally, when you first post [compare heart] [compare heart] post, you can get more exposure by related stocks or related topics. If you want to create high-quality articles, please checkGuidelines for Tiger Community Creation","html":"Finally, when you first post [compare heart] [compare heart] post, you can get more exposure by related stocks or related topics. If you want to create high-quality articles, please checkGuidelines for Tiger Community Creation"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":103578867,"gmtCreate":1619796666759,"gmtModify":1704272564649,"author":{"id":"3568196683280287","authorId":"3568196683280287","name":"杨胜胜","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/39b07ed709bc0fdb73851119781eaa64","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3568196683280287","authorIdStr":"3568196683280287"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"??","listText":"??","text":"??","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/103578867","repostId":"1137689010","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1137689010","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1619795016,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1137689010?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-04-30 23:03","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Preview: In addition to the hot non-agricultural business, what else is there to watch in May?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1137689010","media":"金十数据","summary":"5月远不止非农就业数据和美联储动态要关注。","content":"<p>Author: Zhang Fujian</p><p>May is about to open. Unlike last May, people are getting back on track as vaccination efforts continue to advance, various entertainment venues are opening up one after another, and the jobs report is doing well, so there's a lot to look forward to this May.</p><p>Perhaps the employment data isn't as exciting as the various entertainment activities, after all, people haven't participated in entertainment activities in a year. However, the U.S. non-farm payrolls data for April released next Friday (May 7th) may cause waves in the stock and bond markets in May.</p><p>Will the employment data continue the strong performance in March? If the performance is strong, will it cause consumers to worry about economic overheating? How will the Fed respond? Each of these issues could have an impact on trading in the coming days or weeks.</p><p>In addition to employment data and speeches from Fed officials, there are many things worthy of attention in May, including the first-quarter financial reports of U.S. companies, the epidemic situation in various countries, the progress of Biden's infrastructure plan, and any news about corporate mergers and acquisitions.<b>However, the employment report and Fed dynamics are still the two biggest highlights.</b></p><p><b>Aspect 1: Will non-agricultural activities in April be very beautiful?</b></p><p>In May last year, Americans were basically fighting the epidemic, and the employment data released at that time was very ugly. The employment report shows that the number of unemployed people in the United States exceeded 20 million in April last year, and the unemployment rate soared to 14.7%.</p><p>By May this year, the market expected 916,000 new jobs to be created in the United States, and the unemployment rate dropped to 6%. Of course, the unemployment rate is still some way from pre-pandemic levels, and millions of people in the United States are still unemployed. Previous data also gave us some reference. In the first two weeks, the number of U.S. initial jobless claims hit new lows since the epidemic, both less than 600,000, but still very high.</p><p>But on the whole, the latest employment report should suggest that the situation is improving, so you can look forward to it.</p><p>The question now is, if the employment data performs brilliantly, will it raise people's concerns about inflation? Briefing Research said that in fact, earlier this year, there were already concerns about inflation in the market. It's just that the Fed's stance on inflation temporarily eased market concerns.</p><p>But recently,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/KO\">Coca-Cola</a>Big companies such as Kimberly-Clark and Kimberly-Clark have announced price increases. These companies say they will have to raise prices if higher costs affect their profits. If so, it will inevitably trigger people's panic again.</p><p>Previously, due to rising inflation concerns, the yield of 10-year U.S. Treasury Bond rose from about 0.9% to 1.77% in the first quarter of this year, setting a 13-month high.</p><p>Although the volatility of the bond market declined in April, if the data improves, it is not ruled out that the volatility will rise sharply again in May. You know, rising U.S. bond yields are often accompanied by inflation concerns, which hurts growth stocks a lot.</p><p><b>Aspect 2: Will the Federal Reserve reveal a hawkish signal?</b></p><p><b>It's too early to discuss rate hike? The market doesn't think so.</b></p><p>At the end of April, the CME group (CME) FedWatch forecast tool showed that the probability of the Fed's rate hike before the end of 2021 was 10%. Recently, bets on rate hike have suddenly dropped sharply. Barron's research shows that the possibility of rate hike by the Federal Reserve this year is almost zero. Many analysts also say the Fed won't rate hike until late 2022 at the earliest. The Federal Reserve itself predicts that there will be no rate hike until 2023.</p><p><b>Keep an eye out for FedWatch forecasts in May, things could change</b>。 After all, interest rates near zero have been maintained for a year, and investors are waiting for a signal from rate hike. In addition to rate hike, investors should also pay attention to whether the Federal Reserve will withdraw its $120 billion monthly bond purchase program.</p><p>However, the market generally expects that the possibility of the Fed turning hawkish in the near future is extremely low, because the Fed is currently focused on reducing the unemployment rate and raising the inflation rate above 2%.</p><p>Aspect 3:<b>Do the financial reports of various companies continue to be bright?</b></p><p>The United States ushered in the earnings season in mid-April, and most technology, telecommunications and medical companies performed strongly financially. Of course, the performance of some companies is not satisfactory, beyond Wall Street's expectations, such as Emirates Airlines; Netflix's financial report was also a big disappointment; The earnings report of furniture companies (Bed, Bath & Beyond) was also unimpressive.</p><p>May, and including<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WMT\">Walmart</a>(Walmart),<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PFE\">Pfizer</a>(Pfizer), Lyft,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/0MPH.UK\">Deutsche Telekom</a>T-Mobile,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UBER\">Uber</a>Large companies such as Uber, Moderna and Deere will report earnings, and investors can continue to pay attention.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/efab2d77547ab9ef255066078501f62d\" tg-width=\"831\" tg-height=\"441\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The tug-of-war between growth and value stocks is likely to continue as earnings come out one after another. Year-to-date, the S&P 500 Index (candlestick chart) has outperformed the Nasdaq 100 Index (purple line). Value stocks fared better in March, while growth stocks and technology stocks fared even better in April. As for which type of stock performed better in May, we will wait and see.</p><p><b>Aspect 4: Beware of fluctuations in commodity prices</b></p><p>In addition to the above developments, investors also need to pay attention to commodity prices in May. In April, crude oil, lumber and copper performed strongly, which is a sign of economic growth, but it may also compress the profit margins of many companies.</p><p>You know, the price of commodities affects many companies. If the price of crude oil rises to US $70/barrel, it will greatly increase transportation costs and bring difficulties to transportation companies. In addition, companies like Walmart and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon</a>Its supply chain is heavily dependent on cheap energy supplies, and if prices soar, they won't have an easy time. Manufacturing and real estate are also affected by copper and lumber prices.</p><p><b>Aspect 5: Progress of Biden's infrastructure bill</b></p><p>Finally, we can also pay attention to the progress of Biden's $2 trillion infrastructure bill. According to foreign media reports, on April 22, the Biden administration proposed to raise the capital gains tax, and the stock market plummeted that day. In May, Congress will continue to discuss the plan, and you can pay attention to the impact of this tax increase plan on market sentiment.</p>","source":"jssj","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Preview: In addition to the hot non-agricultural business, what else is there to watch in May?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPreview: In addition to the hot non-agricultural business, what else is there to watch in May?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">金十数据</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-04-30 23:03</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Author: Zhang Fujian</p><p>May is about to open. Unlike last May, people are getting back on track as vaccination efforts continue to advance, various entertainment venues are opening up one after another, and the jobs report is doing well, so there's a lot to look forward to this May.</p><p>Perhaps the employment data isn't as exciting as the various entertainment activities, after all, people haven't participated in entertainment activities in a year. However, the U.S. non-farm payrolls data for April released next Friday (May 7th) may cause waves in the stock and bond markets in May.</p><p>Will the employment data continue the strong performance in March? If the performance is strong, will it cause consumers to worry about economic overheating? How will the Fed respond? Each of these issues could have an impact on trading in the coming days or weeks.</p><p>In addition to employment data and speeches from Fed officials, there are many things worthy of attention in May, including the first-quarter financial reports of U.S. companies, the epidemic situation in various countries, the progress of Biden's infrastructure plan, and any news about corporate mergers and acquisitions.<b>However, the employment report and Fed dynamics are still the two biggest highlights.</b></p><p><b>Aspect 1: Will non-agricultural activities in April be very beautiful?</b></p><p>In May last year, Americans were basically fighting the epidemic, and the employment data released at that time was very ugly. The employment report shows that the number of unemployed people in the United States exceeded 20 million in April last year, and the unemployment rate soared to 14.7%.</p><p>By May this year, the market expected 916,000 new jobs to be created in the United States, and the unemployment rate dropped to 6%. Of course, the unemployment rate is still some way from pre-pandemic levels, and millions of people in the United States are still unemployed. Previous data also gave us some reference. In the first two weeks, the number of U.S. initial jobless claims hit new lows since the epidemic, both less than 600,000, but still very high.</p><p>But on the whole, the latest employment report should suggest that the situation is improving, so you can look forward to it.</p><p>The question now is, if the employment data performs brilliantly, will it raise people's concerns about inflation? Briefing Research said that in fact, earlier this year, there were already concerns about inflation in the market. It's just that the Fed's stance on inflation temporarily eased market concerns.</p><p>But recently,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/KO\">Coca-Cola</a>Big companies such as Kimberly-Clark and Kimberly-Clark have announced price increases. These companies say they will have to raise prices if higher costs affect their profits. If so, it will inevitably trigger people's panic again.</p><p>Previously, due to rising inflation concerns, the yield of 10-year U.S. Treasury Bond rose from about 0.9% to 1.77% in the first quarter of this year, setting a 13-month high.</p><p>Although the volatility of the bond market declined in April, if the data improves, it is not ruled out that the volatility will rise sharply again in May. You know, rising U.S. bond yields are often accompanied by inflation concerns, which hurts growth stocks a lot.</p><p><b>Aspect 2: Will the Federal Reserve reveal a hawkish signal?</b></p><p><b>It's too early to discuss rate hike? The market doesn't think so.</b></p><p>At the end of April, the CME group (CME) FedWatch forecast tool showed that the probability of the Fed's rate hike before the end of 2021 was 10%. Recently, bets on rate hike have suddenly dropped sharply. Barron's research shows that the possibility of rate hike by the Federal Reserve this year is almost zero. Many analysts also say the Fed won't rate hike until late 2022 at the earliest. The Federal Reserve itself predicts that there will be no rate hike until 2023.</p><p><b>Keep an eye out for FedWatch forecasts in May, things could change</b>。 After all, interest rates near zero have been maintained for a year, and investors are waiting for a signal from rate hike. In addition to rate hike, investors should also pay attention to whether the Federal Reserve will withdraw its $120 billion monthly bond purchase program.</p><p>However, the market generally expects that the possibility of the Fed turning hawkish in the near future is extremely low, because the Fed is currently focused on reducing the unemployment rate and raising the inflation rate above 2%.</p><p>Aspect 3:<b>Do the financial reports of various companies continue to be bright?</b></p><p>The United States ushered in the earnings season in mid-April, and most technology, telecommunications and medical companies performed strongly financially. Of course, the performance of some companies is not satisfactory, beyond Wall Street's expectations, such as Emirates Airlines; Netflix's financial report was also a big disappointment; The earnings report of furniture companies (Bed, Bath & Beyond) was also unimpressive.</p><p>May, and including<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WMT\">Walmart</a>(Walmart),<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PFE\">Pfizer</a>(Pfizer), Lyft,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/0MPH.UK\">Deutsche Telekom</a>T-Mobile,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UBER\">Uber</a>Large companies such as Uber, Moderna and Deere will report earnings, and investors can continue to pay attention.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/efab2d77547ab9ef255066078501f62d\" tg-width=\"831\" tg-height=\"441\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The tug-of-war between growth and value stocks is likely to continue as earnings come out one after another. Year-to-date, the S&P 500 Index (candlestick chart) has outperformed the Nasdaq 100 Index (purple line). Value stocks fared better in March, while growth stocks and technology stocks fared even better in April. As for which type of stock performed better in May, we will wait and see.</p><p><b>Aspect 4: Beware of fluctuations in commodity prices</b></p><p>In addition to the above developments, investors also need to pay attention to commodity prices in May. In April, crude oil, lumber and copper performed strongly, which is a sign of economic growth, but it may also compress the profit margins of many companies.</p><p>You know, the price of commodities affects many companies. If the price of crude oil rises to US $70/barrel, it will greatly increase transportation costs and bring difficulties to transportation companies. In addition, companies like Walmart and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon</a>Its supply chain is heavily dependent on cheap energy supplies, and if prices soar, they won't have an easy time. Manufacturing and real estate are also affected by copper and lumber prices.</p><p><b>Aspect 5: Progress of Biden's infrastructure bill</b></p><p>Finally, we can also pay attention to the progress of Biden's $2 trillion infrastructure bill. According to foreign media reports, on April 22, the Biden administration proposed to raise the capital gains tax, and the stock market plummeted that day. In May, Congress will continue to discuss the plan, and you can pay attention to the impact of this tax increase plan on market sentiment.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://xnews.jin10.com/details/73955\">金十数据</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2578fef036607345dce47cc401e172a3","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://xnews.jin10.com/details/73955","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1137689010","content_text":"作者：张富健5月即将开启。与去年5月不同的是，随着疫苗接种工作持续推进，各种娱乐场所陆续开放，人们正在重回正轨，就业报告也表现出色，所以今年5月有很多值得期待的地方。或许就业数据没有各种娱乐活动那么令人兴奋，毕竟人们已经一年没有参加娱乐活动了。不过，下周五（5月7日）公布的美国4月非农就业人口数据可能会在5月的股市和债市里掀起一番波澜。就业数据是否会延续3月的强势表现？若表现强势，又是否会引发消费者对经济过热的担忧？美联储又将如何回应？这些问题都可能会对未来几天或数周的交易产生影响。除了就业数据以及美联储官员的讲话，5月还有很多值得关注的地方，包括美国各公司一季度财报、各国的疫情状况、拜登基建计划的进展以及任何有关企业并购的消息。不过，就业报告和美联储动态仍是两个最大的看点。看点一：4月非农将会十分靓丽？去年5月，美国人基本都在跟疫情作斗争，当时公布的就业数据可谓十分难看。就业报告显示，去年4月美国失业人口超过2000万人，失业率飙升至14.7%。到了今年5月，市场预期美国新增就业岗位91.6万个，失业率降至6%。当然，失业率距离疫情前水平还有一段距离，美国还是有数百万人没有工作。此前的数据也给了我们一些参考。前两周的美国初请失业金人数均创下疫情以来的新低，均少于60万人，但还是很高。但是总的来说，最新就业报告应该会暗示状况好转，大家可以期待一下。现在的问题是，如果就业数据表现靓丽，这是否会引发人们对通胀的担忧？Briefing研究公司表示，其实，今年早些时候，市场上就已经出现了对通胀的担忧。只不过美联储对于通胀的表态暂时缓解了市场担忧。但是近期，可口可乐和金佰利等大公司纷纷宣布涨价，这些公司表示，如果成本升高影响到了它们的利润的话，它们将不得不抬高价格。若真如此，这难免会再次引发了人们的恐慌情绪。此前由于通胀担忧升温，今年第一季度美国10年期国债收益率就从0.9%左右涨到了1.77%，创下了13个月以来的新高。虽然4月债市波动率有所下降，但如果数据转好，不排除5月波动率会重新大涨。要知道，美债收益率上升往往伴随着通胀担忧，这对成长型股票的伤害很大。看点二：美联储会透露转鹰信号吗？现在讨论加息还为时尚早？市场并不这么认为。4月底，芝商所（CME）FedWatch预测工具显示，美联储在2021年末前加息的概率为10%。近期加息押注却突然大降，巴伦周刊的研究表明，美联储今年加息的可能性几乎为零。许多分析师也表示，美联储最早要到2022年末才会加息。而美联储自己也预计，到2023年之前都不会加息。5月份要留意FedWatch的预测，情况可能会有所变化。毕竟接近于零的利率已经维持了一年了，投资者正在等待加息的信号。除了加息以外，投资者还要关注美联储会不会撤回1200亿美元的月度购债计划。不过，市场普遍预计美联储近期转鹰的可能性极低，因为美联储目前专注于降低失业率以及将通胀率抬高到2%以上。看点三：各公司财报是否持续亮眼？4月中美国迎来了财报季，大多数的科技、电信和医疗公司财务状况表现强劲。当然，有的公司表现也不尽人意，出乎华尔街的预期，例如阿联酋航空公司；奈飞的财报也令人大失所望；家具用品企业（Bed, Bath & Beyond）的财报也没有给人留下深刻印象。5月，还有包括沃尔玛（Walmart）、辉瑞（Pfizer）、来福车（Lyft）、德国电信（T-Mobile）、优步（Uber）、莫德纳（Moderna）以及迪尔（Deere）在内的大公司将会公布财报，投资者可以继续关注。随着财报陆续公布，成长型股和价值型股之间的拉锯战可能会持续。今年迄今，标普500指数表现（蜡烛图）跑赢了纳斯达克100指数（紫线）。3月，价值型股的表现较优，而4月成长型股和科技股则更为出色。至于5月，哪一类型的股票的表现更好，我们拭目以待。看点四：警惕大宗商品价格的波动除了上述动态以外，5月投资者还需关注大宗商品价格。4月，原油、木材和铜的表现强劲，这是经济增长的表现，但也可能压缩了许多公司的利润空间。要知道，大宗商品的价格影响着很多公司。如果原油价格升至70美元/桶，那么将极大增加运输成本，给交通运输公司带来困难。另外，像沃尔玛和亚马逊的供应链严重依赖于廉价能源供应，如果价格飙升，他们的日子都不会好过。而制造业和房地产也受到铜价和木材价格的影响。看点五：拜登基建法案的进展最后，我们还可以关注拜登的2万亿美元基建法案的进展。据外媒报道，4月22日，拜登政府提议将提高资本利得税，股市当日闻讯一度急跌。5月，国会将继续就该计划进行商讨，大家可关注这个加税计划对市场情绪的影响。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1129,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":377254065,"gmtCreate":1619532216457,"gmtModify":1704725539237,"author":{"id":"3568196683280287","authorId":"3568196683280287","name":"杨胜胜","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/39b07ed709bc0fdb73851119781eaa64","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3568196683280287","authorIdStr":"3568196683280287"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"？？？？","listText":"？？？？","text":"？？？？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/377254065","repostId":"2130475313","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2130475313","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1619504570,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2130475313?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-04-27 14:22","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"There are three major reasons why Biden's tax increase plan is accused of being pointless","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2130475313","media":"新浪财经","summary":"在拜登即将揭晓大规模增税计划之际，经济学家兼基金经理丹尼尔·拉考（Daniel Lacalle）却表示，拜登宣布对企业和富人大规模增税根本没有意义。\n他认为，增税将对经济增长、投资和就业创造产生影响，","content":"<p>Just as Biden is about to unveil his plan for massive tax increases, economist and fund manager Daniel Lacalle said that Biden's announcement of massive tax increases on corporations and the wealthy simply makes no sense.</p><p>He believes that tax increases will have an impact on economic growth, investment and job creation, but they will not solve the structural deficit problem, and the impact on debt and deficit is almost negligible.</p><p>Such a massive tax rate hike is unjustified either from an income perspective or from a growth target perspective. The Biden administration should use all its tools to support economic growth if it solves the rising deficit problem.</p><p>Lacalle shows why raising taxes makes no sense in three ways:</p><p>First, the impact on real income is negligible.</p><p>In 2018, the U.S. federal capital gains tax revenue was $158.4 billion. Princeton University estimates that every 5 percentage point increase in the current tax system would provide an additional $18 billion to $30 billion in tax revenue under an optimistic scenario of not being negatively impacted by tax increases.</p><p>According to optimistic expectations for growth in corporate and personal income tax revenues, corporate income tax rate increases will increase taxes by $691 billion, while so-called \"abolishing tax loopholes,\" ending fossil fuel tax breaks and anti-tax inversion measures will increase revenues by $271 billion.</p><p>Of course, the above is only an optimistic estimate, provided that the tax increase will not have any negative impact on the economy and GDP growth will not be affected in any way, but the actual situation cannot be so idealistic.</p><p>Second, the negative impact of tax increases will exceed the Biden administration's expectations.</p><p>These tax increases don't just affect the \"rich\". Such a high capital gains tax would stifle innovation and reduce flows into private equity, which is essential to driving start-ups and new high-productivity businesses.</p><p>This is why Europe has lowered or even eliminated capital gains taxes. Belgium, Luxembourg and Switzerland all have no capital gains tax. Among the countries that impose capital gains tax, Greece and Hungary have the lowest tax rate at 15%. The average for European countries is 19.3%.</p><p>The same goes for corporate tax rates. Under Biden's plan, the U.S. would have the highest corporate tax rate in the OECD (28%). Many people believe that the effective tax rate for businesses is lower, while in other countries businesses are also subject to VAT.</p><p>The average effective tax rate for U.S. companies is 36.5%, compared with 21.1% for EU companies, according to the European Commission.</p><p>When comparing real interest rates, many American analysts are playing some tricks, either adding loss-making companies to calculate together, or averaging the tax rates of technology giants with those of other industries.</p><p>It is clear that tax increases will increase the risk of capital outflows from the United States to other countries with more competitive taxes. These tax increases may have little impact on multinational companies, but they have had a particularly negative impact on medium-sized enterprises. This is why these measures are regressive.</p><p>Even Yellen knows that this tax increase is harmful, which is why she wants a global tax. If she didn't see the downside, she'd let other countries manage their taxes as they wanted.</p><p>Finally, the problem of mandatory spending (that is, the deficit problem) remains unsolved.</p><p>Mandatory spending in the United States has surged from $1.8 trillion in 2008 to $2.9 trillion in 2020, and is expected to increase by another $1 trillion over the next 10 years. The main reason for the U.S. deficit is the increase in mandatory spending, because revenues can't match the increase in spending that the government can't control.</p><p>When the spending side is growing faster than economic output and income, even in times of economic expansion, it is impossible to reduce the deficit by raising taxes.</p><p>No matter in any economic cycle, the fiscal revenue brought by tax increases can hardly cover the annual expenditure growth of more than 200 billion dollars and the deficit of more than one trillion dollars.</p><p>So why is Biden doing this?</p><p>Lacalle believes that Biden is trying to please his party and voters, and is not worried about what negative impact this will have on the economy. They just want to stop the rich from getting richer.</p><p>He said Biden's plan to raise taxes doesn't make sense from a growth, revenue or deficit perspective. And it makes no sense from the perspective of the interests of the Republican Party or the Democratic Party. Because it simply doesn't make sense, and it doesn't solve America's main problem: ballooning mandatory spending.</p>","source":"sina_us","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>There are three major reasons why Biden's tax increase plan is accused of being pointless</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThere are three major reasons why Biden's tax increase plan is accused of being pointless\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">新浪财经</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-04-27 14:22</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Just as Biden is about to unveil his plan for massive tax increases, economist and fund manager Daniel Lacalle said that Biden's announcement of massive tax increases on corporations and the wealthy simply makes no sense.</p><p>He believes that tax increases will have an impact on economic growth, investment and job creation, but they will not solve the structural deficit problem, and the impact on debt and deficit is almost negligible.</p><p>Such a massive tax rate hike is unjustified either from an income perspective or from a growth target perspective. The Biden administration should use all its tools to support economic growth if it solves the rising deficit problem.</p><p>Lacalle shows why raising taxes makes no sense in three ways:</p><p>First, the impact on real income is negligible.</p><p>In 2018, the U.S. federal capital gains tax revenue was $158.4 billion. Princeton University estimates that every 5 percentage point increase in the current tax system would provide an additional $18 billion to $30 billion in tax revenue under an optimistic scenario of not being negatively impacted by tax increases.</p><p>According to optimistic expectations for growth in corporate and personal income tax revenues, corporate income tax rate increases will increase taxes by $691 billion, while so-called \"abolishing tax loopholes,\" ending fossil fuel tax breaks and anti-tax inversion measures will increase revenues by $271 billion.</p><p>Of course, the above is only an optimistic estimate, provided that the tax increase will not have any negative impact on the economy and GDP growth will not be affected in any way, but the actual situation cannot be so idealistic.</p><p>Second, the negative impact of tax increases will exceed the Biden administration's expectations.</p><p>These tax increases don't just affect the \"rich\". Such a high capital gains tax would stifle innovation and reduce flows into private equity, which is essential to driving start-ups and new high-productivity businesses.</p><p>This is why Europe has lowered or even eliminated capital gains taxes. Belgium, Luxembourg and Switzerland all have no capital gains tax. Among the countries that impose capital gains tax, Greece and Hungary have the lowest tax rate at 15%. The average for European countries is 19.3%.</p><p>The same goes for corporate tax rates. Under Biden's plan, the U.S. would have the highest corporate tax rate in the OECD (28%). Many people believe that the effective tax rate for businesses is lower, while in other countries businesses are also subject to VAT.</p><p>The average effective tax rate for U.S. companies is 36.5%, compared with 21.1% for EU companies, according to the European Commission.</p><p>When comparing real interest rates, many American analysts are playing some tricks, either adding loss-making companies to calculate together, or averaging the tax rates of technology giants with those of other industries.</p><p>It is clear that tax increases will increase the risk of capital outflows from the United States to other countries with more competitive taxes. These tax increases may have little impact on multinational companies, but they have had a particularly negative impact on medium-sized enterprises. This is why these measures are regressive.</p><p>Even Yellen knows that this tax increase is harmful, which is why she wants a global tax. If she didn't see the downside, she'd let other countries manage their taxes as they wanted.</p><p>Finally, the problem of mandatory spending (that is, the deficit problem) remains unsolved.</p><p>Mandatory spending in the United States has surged from $1.8 trillion in 2008 to $2.9 trillion in 2020, and is expected to increase by another $1 trillion over the next 10 years. The main reason for the U.S. deficit is the increase in mandatory spending, because revenues can't match the increase in spending that the government can't control.</p><p>When the spending side is growing faster than economic output and income, even in times of economic expansion, it is impossible to reduce the deficit by raising taxes.</p><p>No matter in any economic cycle, the fiscal revenue brought by tax increases can hardly cover the annual expenditure growth of more than 200 billion dollars and the deficit of more than one trillion dollars.</p><p>So why is Biden doing this?</p><p>Lacalle believes that Biden is trying to please his party and voters, and is not worried about what negative impact this will have on the economy. They just want to stop the rich from getting richer.</p><p>He said Biden's plan to raise taxes doesn't make sense from a growth, revenue or deficit perspective. And it makes no sense from the perspective of the interests of the Republican Party or the Democratic Party. Because it simply doesn't make sense, and it doesn't solve America's main problem: ballooning mandatory spending.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://finance.sina.com.cn/world/2021-04-27/doc-ikmxzfmk9226419.shtml\">新浪财经</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/be1f2064b1def89283b4efa9b8ac4586","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://finance.sina.com.cn/world/2021-04-27/doc-ikmxzfmk9226419.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2130475313","content_text":"在拜登即将揭晓大规模增税计划之际，经济学家兼基金经理丹尼尔·拉考（Daniel Lacalle）却表示，拜登宣布对企业和富人大规模增税根本没有意义。\n他认为，增税将对经济增长、投资和就业创造产生影响，但却并不能解决结构性的赤字问题，对债务和赤字的影响几乎可以忽略不计。\n无论是从收入角度还是从增长目标来看，如此大规模的税率上调都是毫无道理的。如果经济增长能解决不断上升的赤字问题，拜登政府就应该使用所有工具来支持经济增长。\nLacalle从三个方面说明了为什么增税毫无意义：\n首先，对实际收入的影响可以忽略不计。\n2018年，美国联邦资本利得税收入为1584亿美元。据普林斯顿大学（Princeton University）估计，在不受增税负面影响的乐观情况下，现行税收制度每提高5个百分点，将额外提供180亿至300亿美元的税收。\n根据对企业和个人所得税收入增长的乐观预期，企业所得税税率提高将增加6910亿美元税收，而所谓的“废除税收漏洞”、终止化石燃料税收减免和反税收倒置措施将增加2710亿美元收入。\n当然，以上只是乐观估计，前提是增税不会对经济产生任何负面影响，GDP增长也不会受到任何影响，但实际情况不可能如此理想化。\n其次，增税的负面影响将超过拜登政府的预期。\n这些增税并不只会影响“富人”。如此高的资本利得税会扼杀创新，减少流入私人股本的资金，而私人股本对于推动初创企业和新的高生产率企业至关重要。\n这就是欧洲降低甚至取消资本利得税的原因。比利时，卢森堡，瑞士都没有资本利得税。在征收资本利得税的国家中，希腊和匈牙利的税率最低，为15%。欧洲国家的平均水平是19.3%。\n企业税率也是如此。根据拜登的计划，美国将拥有经合组织中最高的企业税率（28%）。许多人认为，企业的实际税率更低，而在其他国家，企业还需要缴纳增值税。\n欧盟委员会的数据显示，美国公司的实际平均税率为36.5%，而欧盟公司的平均税率为21.1%。\n在比较实际利率时，很多美国的分析都在耍些小把戏，要么把亏损的公司加进去一起计算，要么把科技巨头的税率与其他行业的进行平均。\n增税将增加资本从美国外流到其他税收更有竞争力的国家的风险，这是显而易见的。这些增税措施可能对跨国公司影响不大，但却对中型企业产生了特别大的负面影响。这就是为什么这些措施是倒退的。\n就连耶伦也知道这种增税是有害的，这就是她想要全球征税的原因。如果她没有看到负面影响，她会让其他国家按照他们的意愿管理他们的税收。\n最后，强制性支出的问题（也就是赤字问题）依然没有得到解决。\n美国的强制支出已从2008年的1.8万亿美元激增至2020年的2.9万亿美元，预计未来10年还会再增加1万亿美元。美国赤字的主要原因是强制性支出的增加，因为收入无法与政府控制不了的支出增长相匹配。\n当支出方面的增长速度超过经济产出和收入时，即使是在经济扩张时期，也不可能通过增税来削减赤字。\n不管在任何经济周期中，增税带来的财政收入，都难以覆盖每年逾2000亿美元的支出增长，以及超过一万亿美元的赤字。\n那么拜登为什么要这么做呢？\nLacalle认为，拜登是为了取悦他的政党和选民，并不担心这会对经济产生什么负面影响，他们只是想阻止富人变得更富。\n他表示，从增长、收入或赤字的角度来看，拜登的增税计划没有意义。而且无论从共和党还是民主党的利益角度来看，也都没有意义。因为这根本不合情理，也没有解决美国最主要的问题：不断膨胀的强制性支出。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1417,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":375372866,"gmtCreate":1619312682955,"gmtModify":1704722251902,"author":{"id":"3568196683280287","authorId":"3568196683280287","name":"杨胜胜","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/39b07ed709bc0fdb73851119781eaa64","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3568196683280287","authorIdStr":"3568196683280287"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/375372866","repostId":"1189556280","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1235,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":378858887,"gmtCreate":1619017357249,"gmtModify":1704718415022,"author":{"id":"3568196683280287","authorId":"3568196683280287","name":"杨胜胜","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/39b07ed709bc0fdb73851119781eaa64","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3568196683280287","authorIdStr":"3568196683280287"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"666","listText":"666","text":"666","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/378858887","repostId":"1197052490","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1197052490","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1619016662,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1197052490?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-04-21 22:51","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"[Change] Some popular Chinese concept stocks rose, and Yixian E-commerce rose more than 10%","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1197052490","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"4月21日，部分热门中概股盘中涨幅扩大，逸仙电商涨超10%，名创优品、雾芯科技涨超6%，爱奇艺、腾讯音乐涨超4%，达达集团、跟谁学、贝壳涨超3%，哔哩哔哩涨近2%。","content":"<p>On April 21, some popular Chinese concept stocks expanded their intraday gains.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/YSG\">Yixian E-commerce</a>Up more than 10%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MNSO\">MINISO</a>, Wuxin Technology rose more than 6%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IQ\">IQiyi</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TME\">Tencent Music</a>Rose more than 4%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DADA\">Dada Group</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GSX\">Who to learn from</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BEKE\">Shells</a>Rose more than 3%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">Bilibili</a>Up nearly 2%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e14edf0790ae1746f6dba00e29df721c\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>[Change] Some popular Chinese concept stocks rose, and Yixian E-commerce rose more than 10%</title>\n<style 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21, some popular Chinese concept stocks expanded their intraday gains.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/YSG\">Yixian E-commerce</a>Up more than 10%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MNSO\">MINISO</a>, Wuxin Technology rose more than 6%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IQ\">IQiyi</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TME\">Tencent Music</a>Rose more than 4%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DADA\">Dada Group</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GSX\">Who to learn from</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BEKE\">Shells</a>Rose more than 3%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">Bilibili</a>Up nearly 2%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e14edf0790ae1746f6dba00e29df721c\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8593d7bafc6da002b2ab4975d4711a90","relate_stocks":{"YSG":"逸仙电商","QNETCN":"纳斯达克中美互联网老虎指数","TTTN":"老虎中美互联网巨头ETF"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1197052490","content_text":"4月21日，部分热门中概股盘中涨幅扩大，逸仙电商涨超10%，名创优品、雾芯科技涨超6%，爱奇艺、腾讯音乐涨超4%，达达集团、跟谁学、贝壳涨超3%，哔哩哔哩涨近2%。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TTTN":0.9,"YSG":0.9,"QNETCN":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1166,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":378853190,"gmtCreate":1619017210310,"gmtModify":1704718412411,"author":{"id":"3568196683280287","authorId":"3568196683280287","name":"杨胜胜","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/39b07ed709bc0fdb73851119781eaa64","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3568196683280287","authorIdStr":"3568196683280287"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"??","listText":"??","text":"??","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/378853190","repostId":"1197052490","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1197052490","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1619016662,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1197052490?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-04-21 22:51","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"[Change] Some popular Chinese concept stocks rose, and Yixian E-commerce rose more than 10%","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1197052490","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"4月21日，部分热门中概股盘中涨幅扩大，逸仙电商涨超10%，名创优品、雾芯科技涨超6%，爱奇艺、腾讯音乐涨超4%，达达集团、跟谁学、贝壳涨超3%，哔哩哔哩涨近2%。","content":"<p>On April 21, some popular Chinese concept stocks expanded their intraday gains.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/YSG\">Yixian E-commerce</a>Up more than 10%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MNSO\">MINISO</a>, Wuxin Technology rose more than 6%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IQ\">IQiyi</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TME\">Tencent Music</a>Rose more than 4%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DADA\">Dada Group</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GSX\">Who to learn from</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BEKE\">Shells</a>Rose more than 3%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">Bilibili</a>Up nearly 2%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e14edf0790ae1746f6dba00e29df721c\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>[Change] Some popular Chinese concept stocks rose, and Yixian E-commerce rose more than 10%</title>\n<style 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#7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n[Change] Some popular Chinese concept stocks rose, and Yixian E-commerce rose more than 10%\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-04-21 22:51</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>On April 21, some popular Chinese concept stocks expanded their intraday gains.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/YSG\">Yixian E-commerce</a>Up more than 10%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MNSO\">MINISO</a>, Wuxin Technology rose more than 6%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IQ\">IQiyi</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TME\">Tencent Music</a>Rose more than 4%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DADA\">Dada Group</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GSX\">Who to learn from</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BEKE\">Shells</a>Rose more than 3%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">Bilibili</a>Up nearly 2%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e14edf0790ae1746f6dba00e29df721c\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8593d7bafc6da002b2ab4975d4711a90","relate_stocks":{"YSG":"逸仙电商","QNETCN":"纳斯达克中美互联网老虎指数","TTTN":"老虎中美互联网巨头ETF"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1197052490","content_text":"4月21日，部分热门中概股盘中涨幅扩大，逸仙电商涨超10%，名创优品、雾芯科技涨超6%，爱奇艺、腾讯音乐涨超4%，达达集团、跟谁学、贝壳涨超3%，哔哩哔哩涨近2%。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TTTN":0.9,"YSG":0.9,"QNETCN":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1339,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}