haiwei183 personal page - To The Moon

haiwei183

haiwei183

No personal profile

817Follow

84Followers

2Topic

0Badge

2025-04-30

$Grab Holdings(GRAB)$ good

2022-02-27

look

Sorry, the original content has been removed

2022-07-07

look

This article summarizes the key points from the minutes of last night's Federal Reserve meeting!

2022-06-25

look

Sorry, the original content has been removed

2022-03-27

look

The Mystery of Chinese Concept Internet: What Do You Believe in?

2022-03-26

look

Sorry, the original content has been removed

2022-06-13

look

Foreign Media Headlines | Highlights! The Federal Reserve's rate hike storm continues

2023-12-21

Good game join join

2022-07-30

look

How will US and Hong Kong stocks trade in Q3? Finding the intersection of rebound logic

2022-07-13

look

Sorry, the original content has been removed

Go to Tiger App to see more news

{"i18n":{"language":"en_US"},"userPageInfo":{"id":"3572683426659077","uuid":"3572683426659077","gmtCreate":1609589403588,"gmtModify":1611366202587,"name":"haiwei183","pinyin":"haiwei183","introduction":"","introductionEn":"","signature":"","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1cae291bddff5a30eeb96060074d8531","hat":null,"hatId":null,"hatName":null,"vip":1,"status":2,"fanSize":84,"headSize":817,"tweetSize":883,"questionSize":0,"limitLevel":999,"accountStatus":4,"level":{"id":3,"name":"书生虎","nameTw":"書生虎","represent":"努力向上","factor":"发布10条非转发主帖,其中5条获得他人回复或点赞","iconColor":"3C9E83","bgColor":"A2F1D9"},"themeCounts":2,"badgeCounts":0,"badges":[],"moderator":false,"superModerator":false,"manageSymbols":null,"badgeLevel":null,"boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"favoriteSize":50,"symbols":null,"coverImage":null,"realNameVerified":"success","userBadges":[{"badgeId":"1026c425416b44e0aac28c11a0848493-4","templateUuid":"1026c425416b44e0aac28c11a0848493","name":"Tiger Star","description":"Join the tiger community for 2000 days","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dddf24b906c7011de2617d4fb3f76987","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/53d58ad32c97254c6f74db8b97e6ec49","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6304700d92ad91c7a33e2e92ec32ecc1","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLinkType":null,"redirectLink":null,"redirectLinkValidityFrom":null,"redirectLinkValidityTo":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2026.06.26","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1001,"isScarce":0,"effectEnabled":0,"plateImgUrl":null,"plateColors":null,"validityTo":null,"validityToTimestamp":null,"wearingSort":0},{"badgeId":"44212b71d0be4ec88898348dbe882e03-3","templateUuid":"44212b71d0be4ec88898348dbe882e03","name":"President Tiger","description":"The transaction amount of the securities account reaches $1,000,000","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fbeac6bb240db7da8b972e5183d050ba","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/436cdf80292b99f0a992e78750ac4e3a","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/506a259a7b456f037592c3b23c779599","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLinkType":null,"redirectLink":null,"redirectLinkValidityFrom":null,"redirectLinkValidityTo":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2022.09.22","exceedPercentage":"93.59%","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1101,"isScarce":0,"effectEnabled":0,"plateImgUrl":null,"plateColors":null,"validityTo":null,"validityToTimestamp":null,"wearingSort":0},{"badgeId":"82ffa69a97264fba9002044f4f5f535b-1","templateUuid":"82ffa69a97264fba9002044f4f5f535b","name":"Tiger Think Tank","description":"Tiger Think Tank","bigImgUrl":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/193f8255673f42bdc610097b2074ec3e","smallImgUrl":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/06af124f59f026a383d35b268362424f","grayImgUrl":null,"redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLinkType":null,"redirectLink":null,"redirectLinkValidityFrom":null,"redirectLinkValidityTo":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2022.09.13","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":4001,"isScarce":0,"effectEnabled":0,"plateImgUrl":null,"plateColors":null,"validityTo":null,"validityToTimestamp":null,"wearingSort":0},{"badgeId":"cbe1c45c584340f3bd9ae6c77e0e9981-1","templateUuid":"cbe1c45c584340f3bd9ae6c77e0e9981","name":"Academy Experiencer","description":"5 lessons learned","bigImgUrl":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/fb5ae275631fb96a92d475cdc85d2302","smallImgUrl":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/c2660a1935bd2105e97c9915619936c3","grayImgUrl":null,"redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLinkType":null,"redirectLink":null,"redirectLinkValidityFrom":null,"redirectLinkValidityTo":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2022.08.06","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":2006,"isScarce":0,"effectEnabled":0,"plateImgUrl":null,"plateColors":null,"validityTo":null,"validityToTimestamp":null,"wearingSort":0},{"badgeId":"7a9f168ff73447fe856ed6c938b61789-1","templateUuid":"7a9f168ff73447fe856ed6c938b61789","name":"Knowledgeable Investor","description":"Traded more than 10 stocks","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e74cc24115c4fbae6154ec1b1041bf47","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d48265cbfd97c57f9048db29f22227b0","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/76c6d6898b073c77e1c537ebe9ac1c57","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLinkType":null,"redirectLink":null,"redirectLinkValidityFrom":null,"redirectLinkValidityTo":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2021.12.21","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1102,"isScarce":0,"effectEnabled":0,"plateImgUrl":null,"plateColors":null,"validityTo":null,"validityToTimestamp":null,"wearingSort":0},{"badgeId":"a83d7582f45846ffbccbce770ce65d84-1","templateUuid":"a83d7582f45846ffbccbce770ce65d84","name":"Real Trader","description":"Completed a transaction","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e08a1cc2087a1de93402c2c290fa65b","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4504a6397ce1137932d56e5f4ce27166","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b22c79415b4cd6e3d8ebc4a0fa32604","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLinkType":null,"redirectLink":null,"redirectLinkValidityFrom":null,"redirectLinkValidityTo":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2021.12.21","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1100,"isScarce":0,"effectEnabled":0,"plateImgUrl":null,"plateColors":null,"validityTo":null,"validityToTimestamp":null,"wearingSort":0},{"badgeId":"972123088c9646f7b6091ae0662215be-3","templateUuid":"972123088c9646f7b6091ae0662215be","name":"Legendary Trader","description":"Total number of securities or futures transactions reached 300","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/656db16598a0b8f21429e10d6c1cb033","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/03f10910d4dd9234f9b5702a3342193a","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0c767e35268feb729d50d3fa9a386c5a","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLinkType":null,"redirectLink":null,"redirectLinkValidityFrom":null,"redirectLinkValidityTo":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2021.12.21","exceedPercentage":"93.22%","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1100,"isScarce":0,"effectEnabled":0,"plateImgUrl":null,"plateColors":null,"validityTo":null,"validityToTimestamp":null,"wearingSort":0}],"userBadgeCount":7,"currentWearingBadge":null,"individualDisplayBadges":null,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"location":null,"starInvestorFollowerNum":0,"starInvestorFlag":false,"starInvestorOrderShareNum":0,"subscribeStarInvestorNum":14,"ror":null,"winRationPercentage":null,"showRor":false,"investmentPhilosophy":null,"starInvestorSubscribeFlag":false},"baikeInfo":{},"tab":"hot","tweets":[{"id":492859653886160,"gmtCreate":1761349718674,"gmtModify":1761349721676,"author":{"id":"3572683426659077","authorId":"3572683426659077","name":"haiwei183","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1cae291bddff5a30eeb96060074d8531","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3572683426659077","idStr":"3572683426659077"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/FIX\">$美国舒适系统(FIX)$ </a>&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/FIX\">$美国舒适系统(FIX)$ </a>&nbsp;","text":"$美国舒适系统(FIX)$","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/faffeba706abc5a6748808474f506eed","width":"898","height":"1530"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/492859653886160","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3846,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":491434204438928,"gmtCreate":1761001615807,"gmtModify":1761001618693,"author":{"id":"3572683426659077","authorId":"3572683426659077","name":"haiwei183","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1cae291bddff5a30eeb96060074d8531","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3572683426659077","idStr":"3572683426659077"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/OPT/HOOD 20251024 115.0 PUT\">$HOOD 20251024 115.0 PUT$ </a>&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/OPT/HOOD 20251024 115.0 PUT\">$HOOD 20251024 115.0 PUT$ </a>&nbsp;","text":"$HOOD 20251024 115.0 PUT$","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/faaeb5e87e9657c1f6a6a36a3913c2bd","width":"898","height":"1530"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/491434204438928","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3963,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":429971542254040,"gmtCreate":1745996629895,"gmtModify":1745997350883,"author":{"id":"3572683426659077","authorId":"3572683426659077","name":"haiwei183","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1cae291bddff5a30eeb96060074d8531","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3572683426659077","idStr":"3572683426659077"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/GRAB\">$Grab Holdings(GRAB)$&nbsp;</a> good&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/GRAB\">$Grab Holdings(GRAB)$&nbsp;</a> good&nbsp;","text":"$Grab Holdings(GRAB)$ good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/429971542254040","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4739,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":405847526801656,"gmtCreate":1740111913791,"gmtModify":1740111917846,"author":{"id":"3572683426659077","authorId":"3572683426659077","name":"haiwei183","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1cae291bddff5a30eeb96060074d8531","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3572683426659077","idStr":"3572683426659077"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/CDXC\">$Chromadex Corporation(CDXC)$ </a>&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/CDXC\">$Chromadex Corporation(CDXC)$ </a>&nbsp;","text":"$Chromadex Corporation(CDXC)$","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/a5fb0e94a42c6d5267afb9ee24794b93","width":"898","height":"1530"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/405847526801656","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5521,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":264175847157784,"gmtCreate":1705543587803,"gmtModify":1705543592027,"author":{"id":"3572683426659077","authorId":"3572683426659077","name":"haiwei183","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1cae291bddff5a30eeb96060074d8531","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3572683426659077","idStr":"3572683426659077"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/01368\">$特步国际(01368)$ </a>&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/01368\">$特步国际(01368)$ </a>&nbsp;","text":"$特步国际(01368)$","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/7ac34356c64a2edb9ad63164289e24da","width":"898","height":"1475"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/264175847157784","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":6115,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":257227040399624,"gmtCreate":1703833471713,"gmtModify":1703833475535,"author":{"id":"3572683426659077","authorId":"3572683426659077","name":"haiwei183","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1cae291bddff5a30eeb96060074d8531","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3572683426659077","idStr":"3572683426659077"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/257227040399624","repostId":"257226488127688","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":257226488127688,"gmtCreate":1703833430235,"gmtModify":1703833434422,"author":{"id":"3568928279300346","authorId":"3568928279300346","name":"孔团子","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fa33cc6dba06eea37f240df8e8bc4af7","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3568928279300346","idStr":"3568928279300346"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"今年三倍做多納斯達克翻倍了。 明年繼續翻倍","listText":"今年三倍做多納斯達克翻倍了。 明年繼續翻倍","text":"今年三倍做多納斯達克翻倍了。 明年繼續翻倍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/257226488127688","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":6355,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":255868476616960,"gmtCreate":1703491451350,"gmtModify":1703491455060,"author":{"id":"3572683426659077","authorId":"3572683426659077","name":"haiwei183","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1cae291bddff5a30eeb96060074d8531","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3572683426659077","idStr":"3572683426659077"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/255868476616960","repostId":"255868299972760","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":255868299972760,"gmtCreate":1703491406914,"gmtModify":1703491411966,"author":{"id":"3572683426659077","authorId":"3572683426659077","name":"haiwei183","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1cae291bddff5a30eeb96060074d8531","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3572683426659077","idStr":"3572683426659077"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"大家一起來參加好玩又有趣的遊戲","listText":"大家一起來參加好玩又有趣的遊戲","text":"大家一起來參加好玩又有趣的遊戲","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/255868299972760","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":6480,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":255867781648672,"gmtCreate":1703491438137,"gmtModify":1703491442433,"author":{"id":"3572683426659077","authorId":"3572683426659077","name":"haiwei183","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1cae291bddff5a30eeb96060074d8531","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3572683426659077","idStr":"3572683426659077"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Good good good","listText":"Good good good","text":"Good good good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/255867781648672","repostId":"255868299972760","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":255868299972760,"gmtCreate":1703491406914,"gmtModify":1703491411966,"author":{"id":"3572683426659077","authorId":"3572683426659077","name":"haiwei183","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1cae291bddff5a30eeb96060074d8531","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3572683426659077","idStr":"3572683426659077"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"大家一起來參加好玩又有趣的遊戲","listText":"大家一起來參加好玩又有趣的遊戲","text":"大家一起來參加好玩又有趣的遊戲","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/255868299972760","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5565,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":255870960906288,"gmtCreate":1703489320847,"gmtModify":1703489324051,"author":{"id":"3572683426659077","authorId":"3572683426659077","name":"haiwei183","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1cae291bddff5a30eeb96060074d8531","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3572683426659077","idStr":"3572683426659077"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/255870960906288","repostId":"255870103556360","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":255870103556360,"gmtCreate":1703489128315,"gmtModify":1703489266609,"author":{"id":"4161268876458972","authorId":"4161268876458972","name":"galang24","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4161268876458972","idStr":"4161268876458972"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Play and win more attractive prizes.","listText":"Play and win more attractive prizes.","text":"Play and win more attractive prizes.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/255870103556360","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5278,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":255870087864512,"gmtCreate":1703489252083,"gmtModify":1703489255929,"author":{"id":"3572683426659077","authorId":"3572683426659077","name":"haiwei183","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1cae291bddff5a30eeb96060074d8531","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3572683426659077","idStr":"3572683426659077"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Replying to <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/U/3572683426659077\">@haiwei183</a>:Good//<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/U/3572683426659077\">@haiwei183</a>:Good","listText":"Replying to <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/U/3572683426659077\">@haiwei183</a>:Good//<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/U/3572683426659077\">@haiwei183</a>:Good","text":"Replying to @haiwei183:Good//@haiwei183:Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/255870087864512","repostId":"255870052966496","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":255870052966496,"gmtCreate":1703489101231,"gmtModify":1703489105592,"author":{"id":"3568112587764186","authorId":"3568112587764186","name":"Pjun","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8cfe0a02203e702b7aae055eaa9823be","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3568112587764186","idStr":"3568112587764186"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Thanks tiger valid comment","listText":"Thanks tiger valid comment","text":"Thanks tiger valid comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/255870052966496","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":7000,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":255870531854448,"gmtCreate":1703489227799,"gmtModify":1703489231170,"author":{"id":"3572683426659077","authorId":"3572683426659077","name":"haiwei183","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1cae291bddff5a30eeb96060074d8531","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3572683426659077","idStr":"3572683426659077"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/255870531854448","repostId":"255870052966496","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":255870052966496,"gmtCreate":1703489101231,"gmtModify":1703489105592,"author":{"id":"3568112587764186","authorId":"3568112587764186","name":"Pjun","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8cfe0a02203e702b7aae055eaa9823be","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3568112587764186","idStr":"3568112587764186"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Thanks tiger valid comment","listText":"Thanks tiger valid comment","text":"Thanks tiger valid comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/255870052966496","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4539,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":255869996081392,"gmtCreate":1703489201297,"gmtModify":1703489204648,"author":{"id":"3572683426659077","authorId":"3572683426659077","name":"haiwei183","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1cae291bddff5a30eeb96060074d8531","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3572683426659077","idStr":"3572683426659077"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/255869996081392","repostId":"255870052966496","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":255870052966496,"gmtCreate":1703489101231,"gmtModify":1703489105592,"author":{"id":"3568112587764186","authorId":"3568112587764186","name":"Pjun","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8cfe0a02203e702b7aae055eaa9823be","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3568112587764186","idStr":"3568112587764186"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Thanks tiger valid comment","listText":"Thanks tiger valid comment","text":"Thanks tiger valid comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/255870052966496","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3898,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":255869674823800,"gmtCreate":1703489149859,"gmtModify":1703489153033,"author":{"id":"3572683426659077","authorId":"3572683426659077","name":"haiwei183","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1cae291bddff5a30eeb96060074d8531","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3572683426659077","idStr":"3572683426659077"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/255869674823800","repostId":"255869577130136","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":255869577130136,"gmtCreate":1703489090559,"gmtModify":1703489094992,"author":{"id":"4090826650060290","authorId":"4090826650060290","name":"seesam","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/260b6aa14bb5397e92aaa5702b7aa599","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4090826650060290","idStr":"4090826650060290"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Valid post for task...&nbsp;","listText":"Valid post for task...&nbsp;","text":"Valid post for task...","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/255869577130136","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3921,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":255870102966560,"gmtCreate":1703489128602,"gmtModify":1703489131783,"author":{"id":"3572683426659077","authorId":"3572683426659077","name":"haiwei183","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1cae291bddff5a30eeb96060074d8531","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3572683426659077","idStr":"3572683426659077"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/255870102966560","repostId":"255869577130136","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":255869577130136,"gmtCreate":1703489090559,"gmtModify":1703489094992,"author":{"id":"4090826650060290","authorId":"4090826650060290","name":"seesam","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/260b6aa14bb5397e92aaa5702b7aa599","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4090826650060290","idStr":"4090826650060290"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Valid post for task...&nbsp;","listText":"Valid post for task...&nbsp;","text":"Valid post for task...","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/255869577130136","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3670,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":255869459742920,"gmtCreate":1703489068807,"gmtModify":1703489072351,"author":{"id":"3572683426659077","authorId":"3572683426659077","name":"haiwei183","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1cae291bddff5a30eeb96060074d8531","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3572683426659077","idStr":"3572683426659077"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/255869459742920","repostId":"255869433524488","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":255869433524488,"gmtCreate":1703488964732,"gmtModify":1703488969370,"author":{"id":"3578965435978206","authorId":"3578965435978206","name":"pandajojo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7efe44a2514d987c5a8b342b85d6f229","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578965435978206","idStr":"3578965435978206"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Play and win more attractive prizes&nbsp;","listText":"Play and win more attractive prizes&nbsp;","text":"Play and win more attractive prizes","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/255869433524488","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2660,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":255869524131936,"gmtCreate":1703488972121,"gmtModify":1703488975260,"author":{"id":"3572683426659077","authorId":"3572683426659077","name":"haiwei183","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1cae291bddff5a30eeb96060074d8531","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3572683426659077","idStr":"3572683426659077"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/255869524131936","repostId":"255869387771952","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":255869387771952,"gmtCreate":1703488936781,"gmtModify":1703488940306,"author":{"id":"4164362816322342","authorId":"4164362816322342","name":"Koh S2R","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4164362816322342","idStr":"4164362816322342"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"[Grin]&nbsp;[Miser]&nbsp;[Cry]&nbsp;[Grin]&nbsp;[Happy]&nbsp;&nbsp;","listText":"[Grin]&nbsp;[Miser]&nbsp;[Cry]&nbsp;[Grin]&nbsp;[Happy]&nbsp;&nbsp;","text":"[Grin] [Miser] [Cry] [Grin] [Happy]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/255869387771952","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2759,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":255868795666688,"gmtCreate":1703488940484,"gmtModify":1703488944468,"author":{"id":"3572683426659077","authorId":"3572683426659077","name":"haiwei183","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1cae291bddff5a30eeb96060074d8531","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3572683426659077","idStr":"3572683426659077"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/255868795666688","repostId":"255868503519352","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":255868503519352,"gmtCreate":1703488863896,"gmtModify":1703488869057,"author":{"id":"4092010970444820","authorId":"4092010970444820","name":"丸子叔叔","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9db79fcf3d54d8e8214658f81484dc54","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4092010970444820","idStr":"4092010970444820"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Sssrrcvguuhhcdss[难过]&nbsp;[呆住]&nbsp;[龇牙]&nbsp;[白眼]&nbsp;[生气]&nbsp;[生气]&nbsp;[惊讶]&nbsp;[白眼]&nbsp;[打脸]&nbsp;[打脸]&nbsp;[抠鼻]&nbsp;[叹气]&nbsp;[摊手]&nbsp;[想吃]&nbsp;[想吃]&nbsp;[握手]&nbsp;[抱拳]&nbsp;[666]&nbsp;[梭哈]&nbsp;[梭哈]&nbsp;[OK]&nbsp;[OK]&nbsp;&nbsp;","listText":"Sssrrcvguuhhcdss[难过]&nbsp;[呆住]&nbsp;[龇牙]&nbsp;[白眼]&nbsp;[生气]&nbsp;[生气]&nbsp;[惊讶]&nbsp;[白眼]&nbsp;[打脸]&nbsp;[打脸]&nbsp;[抠鼻]&nbsp;[叹气]&nbsp;[摊手]&nbsp;[想吃]&nbsp;[想吃]&nbsp;[握手]&nbsp;[抱拳]&nbsp;[666]&nbsp;[梭哈]&nbsp;[梭哈]&nbsp;[OK]&nbsp;[OK]&nbsp;&nbsp;","text":"Sssrrcvguuhhcdss[难过] [呆住] [龇牙] [白眼] [生气] [生气] [惊讶] [白眼] [打脸] [打脸] [抠鼻] [叹气] [摊手] [想吃] [想吃] [握手] [抱拳] [666] [梭哈] [梭哈] [OK] [OK]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/255868503519352","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2585,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":255635249373376,"gmtCreate":1703424454498,"gmtModify":1703424457565,"author":{"id":"3572683426659077","authorId":"3572683426659077","name":"haiwei183","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1cae291bddff5a30eeb96060074d8531","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3572683426659077","idStr":"3572683426659077"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/255635249373376","repostId":"255634252357888","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":255634252357888,"gmtCreate":1703424401715,"gmtModify":1703424408039,"author":{"id":"3572683426659077","authorId":"3572683426659077","name":"haiwei183","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1cae291bddff5a30eeb96060074d8531","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3572683426659077","idStr":"3572683426659077"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"大家一起來參加遊戲，讓我們玩的開心。","listText":"大家一起來參加遊戲，讓我們玩的開心。","text":"大家一起來參加遊戲，讓我們玩的開心。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/255634252357888","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2194,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":255075745034512,"gmtCreate":1703288026531,"gmtModify":1703288030784,"author":{"id":"3572683426659077","authorId":"3572683426659077","name":"haiwei183","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1cae291bddff5a30eeb96060074d8531","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3572683426659077","idStr":"3572683426659077"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Good good good good good","listText":"Good good good good good","text":"Good good good good good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/255075745034512","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2404,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":255075740823672,"gmtCreate":1703287957201,"gmtModify":1703287960322,"author":{"id":"3572683426659077","authorId":"3572683426659077","name":"haiwei183","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1cae291bddff5a30eeb96060074d8531","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3572683426659077","idStr":"3572683426659077"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/255075740823672","repostId":"255075701403880","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":255075701403880,"gmtCreate":1703287846977,"gmtModify":1703287851199,"author":{"id":"3581921108389483","authorId":"3581921108389483","name":"Squ00","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/c532dee28e4fc99a9cc34fb3b9649140","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581921108389483","idStr":"3581921108389483"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Morning everyone[Grin]&nbsp;&nbsp;","listText":"Morning everyone[Grin]&nbsp;&nbsp;","text":"Morning everyone[Grin]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/255075701403880","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2463,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":429971542254040,"gmtCreate":1745996629895,"gmtModify":1745997350883,"author":{"id":"3572683426659077","authorId":"3572683426659077","name":"haiwei183","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1cae291bddff5a30eeb96060074d8531","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3572683426659077","authorIdStr":"3572683426659077"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/GRAB\">$Grab Holdings(GRAB)$&nbsp;</a> good&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/GRAB\">$Grab Holdings(GRAB)$&nbsp;</a> good&nbsp;","text":"$Grab Holdings(GRAB)$ good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/429971542254040","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4739,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9039398824,"gmtCreate":1645920127460,"gmtModify":1676534074071,"author":{"id":"3572683426659077","authorId":"3572683426659077","name":"haiwei183","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1cae291bddff5a30eeb96060074d8531","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3572683426659077","authorIdStr":"3572683426659077"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"look","listText":"look","text":"look","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9039398824","repostId":"2214180192","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1485,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9079381350,"gmtCreate":1657151854270,"gmtModify":1676535958363,"author":{"id":"3572683426659077","authorId":"3572683426659077","name":"haiwei183","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1cae291bddff5a30eeb96060074d8531","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3572683426659077","authorIdStr":"3572683426659077"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"look","listText":"look","text":"look","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9079381350","repostId":"1177613805","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1177613805","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1657148501,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1177613805?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-07-07 07:01","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"This article summarizes the key points from the minutes of last night's Federal Reserve meeting!","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1177613805","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"摘要：6月会上美联储官员认为，7月会议可能适合加息75个基点或50个基点；通胀降至2%需要时间，加息可能导致一段时间经济放缓，但充分就业的关键是降通胀；目前有高通胀根深蒂固的风险，担心5月CPI暗示通","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Abstract: At the June meeting, Federal Reserve officials believed that the July meeting might be suitable for a rate hike of 75 or 50 basis points; It will take time for inflation to fall to 2%, and rate hike may lead to a period of economic slowdown, but the key to full employment is to reduce inflation. There is currently a risk of entrenched high inflation, with concerns that the May CPI suggests inflation will last longer than previously expected; If inflation expectations get out of control, reducing inflation will come at a higher cost. Meeting minutes released on Wednesday, July 6, Eastern Time, showed that at the June monetary policy meeting, Federal Reserve officials acknowledged that rate hike could slow economic growth, but believed that the rate hike might need to last longer to prevent high inflation from becoming entrenched. Because the inflation outlook has deteriorated, interest rates need to be raised to restrictive levels that deliberately slow the economy.</p><p>The minutes also confirmed that the Fed will discuss at its meeting this month whether to continue its 75 basis point rate hike or slow it to 50 basis points.</p><p>Media commentators say that, given recent data showing a slightly slower economic growth, some investors believe the hawkish stance reiterated by the Federal Reserve at its June meeting is outdated. This drove US stocks higher during the session, and the three major indices, which had turned lower more than once during the session, completely reversed their downward trend.</p><p>The July meeting will consider whether to rate hike another 75 basis points.</p><p>The Federal Reserve decided to raise rate hike by 75 basis points at its June meeting, marking the largest rate hike in over 27 years. The meeting minutes show that, given the extremely tight labor market supply, inflation far exceeding the Federal Reserve's Monetary Policy Committee (FOMC) inflation target of 2%, and the fact that the near-term inflation outlook has deteriorated since the May Fed meeting, almost all Fed policymakers agreed with the June rate hike of 75 basis points, with only one voting against it because they supported the rate hike of 50 basis points.</p><p>In discussing possible policy actions at future meetings, participating officials continued to anticipate future rate hike, with the minutes specifically mentioning:</p><p>The participants decided that the next meeting (Wall Street Insights note: i.e.<b>July Meeting</b>）<b>May be suitable for 75 basis points or 50 basis points in rate hike</b>。<b>Participants</b>There is consensus that the economic outlook guarantees a restrictive stance in (monetary) policy. And they<b>Recognizing that if high inflationary pressures persist, the stance may become even more restrictive.</b>(even more restrictive). Inflation will take time to fall to 2%, and rate hike may lead to a period of economic slowdown.</p><p>The minutes show that at the June meeting, Federal Reserve policymakers expected it would take time to reduce inflation, and that suppressing inflation would come at the cost of a potential slowdown in economic growth.</p><p>Participants believed that the Russia-Ukraine conflict, China's epidemic prevention efforts, and other factors constraining the supply environment will affect the inflation outlook, and it may take some time for inflation to fall back to the Fed's target. Participants also concluded that maintaining a strong labor market in the process of bringing inflation down to 2% will depend on many factors affecting supply and demand. Participants recognized that firm policies could slow economic growth for a period of time, but they expected that bringing inflation back to 2% would be key to achieving sustained full employment. There is a deep-seated risk of high inflation, with concerns that the May CPI suggests inflation will last longer than previously expected.</p><p>The minutes stated that the Federal Reserve policymakers at the meeting believed that, given that inflation was far above the Fed's target level, the Fed needed to shift to a restrictive policy stance to achieve the dual goals of full employment and price stability. Moreover, from a risk management perspective, the Federal Reserve is in a better position to tighten its restrictive measures once inflation is higher than expected.</p><p>many participants judged that,<b>One of the major risks facing the (FOMC) committee now is</b>，<b>If the public begins to doubt whether the committee can ensure its determination to adjust its policy stance, high inflation could become entrenched.</b>In this regard, participants emphasized that appropriately firm monetary policy, coupled with clear and effective communication, is crucial for restoring price stability. Regarding inflation, Federal Reserve officials at the meeting pointed out that inflation remains too high and continues to be well above the long-term target of 2%.</p><p>Participants<b>worry</b>，<b>May CPI data suggests that inflationary pressures show no signs of abating.</b>。 A number of people regard this as<b>This reinforced the view that inflation would last longer than they had previously expected.</b>。 There are upside risks to inflation, such as rising commodity prices. If inflation expectations get out of control, lowering inflation will come at a higher cost.</p><p>In assessing the economy, the Federal Reserve officials present emphasized that they are very concerned about inflation risks and closely monitor developments and changes related to inflation and inflation expectations.</p><p>Most participants believed the risks to inflation were upside and mentioned a variety of related risks, including ongoing supply bottlenecks and rising energy and commodity prices. Participants agreed that economic growth in the coming years is highly uncertain.</p><p>Most participants assessed that there were downside risks to the economic growth outlook, including that further tightening of financial conditions would have a greater negative impact on economic activity than expected, and that the impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict and China's epidemic prevention efforts on economic growth would exceed expectations.</p><p>Regarding inflation expectations, the minutes show that</p><p>While long-term inflation expectations from household surveys, professional forecasters, and market participants are generally consistent with the FOMC's long-term inflation target of 2%,<b>Many participants were concerned that long-term inflation expectations could begin to rise to levels below the 2% target. These participants pointed out that bringing inflation back to the FOMC target would be more costly if inflation expectations got out of control.</b>。 Market reaction</p><p>Following the release of the Federal Reserve meeting minutes in midday trading, U.S. stocks initially fell before quickly rebounding, with all three major U.S. stock indexes rising during the session.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c7d417276ecc91e848c333fe109e392e\" tg-width=\"725\" tg-height=\"489\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>the US Dollar Index fluctuated upwards, breaking below 107.00 in the short term before quickly rebounding to 107.00, approaching the high since December 2002 set by US stocks in early trading at near 107.30.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0996cbbf2789acffe0ee8b062ca07b1e\" tg-width=\"714\" tg-height=\"485\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury Bond yield continued its upward trend, rising above 2.90% after the minutes were released, and briefly broke through 2.92%, setting a new daily high. The intraday gain exceeded 10 basis points, rebounding about 17 basis points from the more than one-month low hit by European stocks during Wednesday's intraday test of 2.75%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7fdc9bfee7abd837e8a41feed40e5761\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"483\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p></body></html></p>","source":"highlight_wallstreetcn","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>This article summarizes the key points from the minutes of last night's Federal Reserve meeting!</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThis article summarizes the key points from the minutes of last night's Federal Reserve meeting!\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-07-07 07:01</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Abstract: At the June meeting, Federal Reserve officials believed that the July meeting might be suitable for a rate hike of 75 or 50 basis points; It will take time for inflation to fall to 2%, and rate hike may lead to a period of economic slowdown, but the key to full employment is to reduce inflation. There is currently a risk of entrenched high inflation, with concerns that the May CPI suggests inflation will last longer than previously expected; If inflation expectations get out of control, reducing inflation will come at a higher cost. Meeting minutes released on Wednesday, July 6, Eastern Time, showed that at the June monetary policy meeting, Federal Reserve officials acknowledged that rate hike could slow economic growth, but believed that the rate hike might need to last longer to prevent high inflation from becoming entrenched. Because the inflation outlook has deteriorated, interest rates need to be raised to restrictive levels that deliberately slow the economy.</p><p>The minutes also confirmed that the Fed will discuss at its meeting this month whether to continue its 75 basis point rate hike or slow it to 50 basis points.</p><p>Media commentators say that, given recent data showing a slightly slower economic growth, some investors believe the hawkish stance reiterated by the Federal Reserve at its June meeting is outdated. This drove US stocks higher during the session, and the three major indices, which had turned lower more than once during the session, completely reversed their downward trend.</p><p>The July meeting will consider whether to rate hike another 75 basis points.</p><p>The Federal Reserve decided to raise rate hike by 75 basis points at its June meeting, marking the largest rate hike in over 27 years. The meeting minutes show that, given the extremely tight labor market supply, inflation far exceeding the Federal Reserve's Monetary Policy Committee (FOMC) inflation target of 2%, and the fact that the near-term inflation outlook has deteriorated since the May Fed meeting, almost all Fed policymakers agreed with the June rate hike of 75 basis points, with only one voting against it because they supported the rate hike of 50 basis points.</p><p>In discussing possible policy actions at future meetings, participating officials continued to anticipate future rate hike, with the minutes specifically mentioning:</p><p>The participants decided that the next meeting (Wall Street Insights note: i.e.<b>July Meeting</b>）<b>May be suitable for 75 basis points or 50 basis points in rate hike</b>。<b>Participants</b>There is consensus that the economic outlook guarantees a restrictive stance in (monetary) policy. And they<b>Recognizing that if high inflationary pressures persist, the stance may become even more restrictive.</b>(even more restrictive). Inflation will take time to fall to 2%, and rate hike may lead to a period of economic slowdown.</p><p>The minutes show that at the June meeting, Federal Reserve policymakers expected it would take time to reduce inflation, and that suppressing inflation would come at the cost of a potential slowdown in economic growth.</p><p>Participants believed that the Russia-Ukraine conflict, China's epidemic prevention efforts, and other factors constraining the supply environment will affect the inflation outlook, and it may take some time for inflation to fall back to the Fed's target. Participants also concluded that maintaining a strong labor market in the process of bringing inflation down to 2% will depend on many factors affecting supply and demand. Participants recognized that firm policies could slow economic growth for a period of time, but they expected that bringing inflation back to 2% would be key to achieving sustained full employment. There is a deep-seated risk of high inflation, with concerns that the May CPI suggests inflation will last longer than previously expected.</p><p>The minutes stated that the Federal Reserve policymakers at the meeting believed that, given that inflation was far above the Fed's target level, the Fed needed to shift to a restrictive policy stance to achieve the dual goals of full employment and price stability. Moreover, from a risk management perspective, the Federal Reserve is in a better position to tighten its restrictive measures once inflation is higher than expected.</p><p>many participants judged that,<b>One of the major risks facing the (FOMC) committee now is</b>，<b>If the public begins to doubt whether the committee can ensure its determination to adjust its policy stance, high inflation could become entrenched.</b>In this regard, participants emphasized that appropriately firm monetary policy, coupled with clear and effective communication, is crucial for restoring price stability. Regarding inflation, Federal Reserve officials at the meeting pointed out that inflation remains too high and continues to be well above the long-term target of 2%.</p><p>Participants<b>worry</b>，<b>May CPI data suggests that inflationary pressures show no signs of abating.</b>。 A number of people regard this as<b>This reinforced the view that inflation would last longer than they had previously expected.</b>。 There are upside risks to inflation, such as rising commodity prices. If inflation expectations get out of control, lowering inflation will come at a higher cost.</p><p>In assessing the economy, the Federal Reserve officials present emphasized that they are very concerned about inflation risks and closely monitor developments and changes related to inflation and inflation expectations.</p><p>Most participants believed the risks to inflation were upside and mentioned a variety of related risks, including ongoing supply bottlenecks and rising energy and commodity prices. Participants agreed that economic growth in the coming years is highly uncertain.</p><p>Most participants assessed that there were downside risks to the economic growth outlook, including that further tightening of financial conditions would have a greater negative impact on economic activity than expected, and that the impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict and China's epidemic prevention efforts on economic growth would exceed expectations.</p><p>Regarding inflation expectations, the minutes show that</p><p>While long-term inflation expectations from household surveys, professional forecasters, and market participants are generally consistent with the FOMC's long-term inflation target of 2%,<b>Many participants were concerned that long-term inflation expectations could begin to rise to levels below the 2% target. These participants pointed out that bringing inflation back to the FOMC target would be more costly if inflation expectations got out of control.</b>。 Market reaction</p><p>Following the release of the Federal Reserve meeting minutes in midday trading, U.S. stocks initially fell before quickly rebounding, with all three major U.S. stock indexes rising during the session.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c7d417276ecc91e848c333fe109e392e\" tg-width=\"725\" tg-height=\"489\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>the US Dollar Index fluctuated upwards, breaking below 107.00 in the short term before quickly rebounding to 107.00, approaching the high since December 2002 set by US stocks in early trading at near 107.30.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0996cbbf2789acffe0ee8b062ca07b1e\" tg-width=\"714\" tg-height=\"485\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury Bond yield continued its upward trend, rising above 2.90% after the minutes were released, and briefly broke through 2.92%, setting a new daily high. The intraday gain exceeded 10 basis points, rebounding about 17 basis points from the more than one-month low hit by European stocks during Wednesday's intraday test of 2.75%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7fdc9bfee7abd837e8a41feed40e5761\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"483\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3664052\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/123472eab1159c5e881f8e540a346014","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3664052","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/cc96873d3d23ee6ac10685520df9c100","article_id":"1177613805","content_text":"摘要：6月会上美联储官员认为，7月会议可能适合加息75个基点或50个基点；通胀降至2%需要时间，加息可能导致一段时间经济放缓，但充分就业的关键是降通胀；目前有高通胀根深蒂固的风险，担心5月CPI暗示通胀会比之前预期持续得更久；若通胀预期失控，降通胀将付出更高代价。美东时间7月6日周三公布的会议纪要显示，6月货币政策会议上，美联储官员承认加息可能导致经济增长放慢，但认为，要避免高通胀变得根深蒂固，可能需要加息时间持续更久。因为通胀前景已恶化，需要让利率升至刻意让经济放缓的限制性水平。同时纪要确认了，联储将在本月的会议上讨论是继续加息75个基点，还是将幅度放缓到50个基点。媒体评论称，考虑到新近数据显示经济增长略为更加放缓，一些投资者认为，美联储在6月会上重申的鹰派立场已经过时。这推动美股盘中走高，盘中不止一次转跌的三大指数彻底摆脱跌势。7月会议考虑是否再加息75个基点美联储6月会议决定加息75个基点，为逾二十七年最大力度加息。本次会议纪要显示，因为考虑到劳动力市场供应非常紧张、通胀远高于美联储货币政策委员会FOMC的通胀目标2%、近期通胀前景自5月联储会议以来已经恶化，几乎所有联储决策者都同意6月加息75个基点，只有一人因支持加息50个基点而投反对票。在讨论未来几次会议可能采取的政策行动时，与会官员依然预期适合未来继续加息，纪要特别提到：与会者判定，下次会议（华尔街见闻注：即7月会议）可能适合加息75个基点或者50个基点。与会者一致认为，经济前景对（货币）政策步入限制性的立场有保障。而且他们认识到，如果高企的通胀压力持续，立场甚至可能要限制性更强（even more restrictive）。通胀降至2%需要时间 加息可能导致一段时间经济放缓纪要显示，6月会上，美联储决策者预计降低通胀需要时间，而且压低通胀将付出经济增长可能放缓的代价。与会者认为，俄乌冲突、中国防疫和其他限制供应环境的因素将影响通胀前景，让通胀回落到联储目标可能需要一些时间。与会者还判定，在让通胀降至2%的过程中，保持强劲的劳动力市场将取决于很多影响供需的因素。与会者认识到，坚定政策可能让经济增长一段时间内放缓，但他们预计，让通胀回到2%是实现持续充分就业的关键。有高通胀根深蒂固的风险 担心5月CPI暗示通胀比之前预期持续得更久纪要称，与会美联储决策者认为，由于通胀远高于联储目标水平，要实现充分就业和价格稳定的双重目标，美联储需要转变为限制性的政策立场。而且，从风险管理的角度看，因为一旦通胀高于预期，美联储就能处于加强限制性力度的更有利地位。很多（many）与会者判定，现在（FOMC）委员会面临的一大风险是，假如公众开始怀疑委员会能否确保调整政策立场的决心，高企的通胀可能变得根深蒂固。在这方面，与会者强调，适宜地坚定货币政策，加之清晰有效的沟通，都对恢复价格稳定至关重要。在通胀方面，与会联储官员指出，通胀仍旧太高，继续远高于长期目标2%。与会者担心，5月CPI数据暗示，通胀压力还未显示减弱的迹象。多人（a number of）将此视为强化了通胀会比他们之前预期的更持久这一观点。通胀有大宗商品涨价等上行风险 若通胀预期失控 降通胀将付出更高代价在评估经济时，与会美联储官员强调，他们非常关注通胀风险，密切监控通胀以及通胀预期相关的发展变化。大多数与会者认为通胀的风险偏上行，并提到多种相关风险，包括持续的供应瓶颈、能源和大宗商品价格上涨。与会者认定，未来几年经济增长的不确定性很高。大部分与会者评估认为，经济增长的前景有偏下行的风险，下行风险包括，金融环境进一步收紧会对经济活动造成比预期更大的负面影响，以及俄乌冲突和中国防疫对经济增长的影响超出预期。在通胀预期方面，纪要显示，虽然来自家庭调查、专业预测方和市场参与者的长期通胀预期指标总体和FOMC委员会的长期通胀目标2%保持一致，但很多与会者担心，长期通胀预期可能开始上行至不符合2%目标的水平。这些与会者指出，假如通胀预期变得失控，让通胀回落到FOMC目标将付出更高的代价。市场反应午盘时段美联储会议纪要公布后，美股先回落后很快短线拉升，三大美股指盘中齐涨。美元指数震荡上行，短线下破107.00后迅速重上107.00，逼近美股早盘时逼近107.30所创的2002年12月以来高位。基准10年期美国国债收益率保持升势，纪要公布后站上2.90%，一度升破2.92%刷新日高，日内升幅超过10个基点，较周三欧股盘中下测2.75%所创的一个多月来低位回升约17个基点。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1734,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9048063807,"gmtCreate":1656119565809,"gmtModify":1676535770826,"author":{"id":"3572683426659077","authorId":"3572683426659077","name":"haiwei183","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1cae291bddff5a30eeb96060074d8531","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3572683426659077","authorIdStr":"3572683426659077"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"look","listText":"look","text":"look","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9048063807","repostId":"1182322747","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1764,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9010878503,"gmtCreate":1648346698121,"gmtModify":1676534329574,"author":{"id":"3572683426659077","authorId":"3572683426659077","name":"haiwei183","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1cae291bddff5a30eeb96060074d8531","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3572683426659077","authorIdStr":"3572683426659077"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"look","listText":"look","text":"look","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9010878503","repostId":"1104202250","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1104202250","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1648340339,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1104202250?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-03-27 08:18","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"The Mystery of Chinese Concept Internet: What Do You Believe in?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1104202250","media":"远川投资评论","summary":"这些年，机构苦口婆心教育基民“越跌越买”，但似乎只有中概互联，能让大家一边痛骂不如改名“中丐互怜”，一边乖乖掏钱。2021年2月18日，（易方达）中概互联网ETF场内价格创出历史新高。当时，这只基金的","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Over the years, institutions have painstakingly educated fund investors to \"buy more as prices fall,\" but it seems that only Chinese internet companies listed in the US can make people both criticize the idea of changing the name to \"mutual pity between Chinese beggars\" and obediently hand over their money.</p><p>On February 18, 2021, the market price of the E Fund China Concept Internet ETF hit a record high. At that time, the fund had fewer than 3.5 billion units, and the product's reputation was far less than it is now. Unexpectedly, during the subsequent continuous decline in net asset value and market price, the fund's share size increased rather than decreased, more than tenfold in just over a year, approaching 35.5 billion units. (Bank of Communications) China Concept Internet LOF, (GF) China Concept Internet ETF, Hang Seng Technology ETF, and other index funds that can invest in Hong Kong stocks and the internet have all achieved a great leap in share during this period.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/002c4daa1600178dc042fd90aa7fe201\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"840\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>This kind of \"suicidal\" bottom-fishing behavior would lead investors accustomed to conspiracy theories to believe without hesitation that it was probably institutional investors luring retail investors deeper into the market. That's not actually the case.</p><p>Wind data shows that while the share and size of E Fund's China Concept Internet ETF are rising against the trend, the proportion of institutional holdings is increasing slightly, and the proportion of internal holdings is also increasing slightly. This indicates that not only institutional funds, but also fund company insiders are constantly buying at the bottom during the decline of Chinese concept stocks.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/275016ee3f4b499c5320654bfaa41997\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"840\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>While domestic funds were enthusiastic about buying at the bottom, foreign capital faced a blow. The 13F report shows that several foreign companies, including Goldman Sachs, Temasek, BlackRock, and JPMorgan Chase, have reduced their holdings in leading Chinese concept stocks such as Alibaba. Five Chinese concept stocks have been added to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission's \"pre-delisting list,\" and JPMorgan Chase has given a \"sell rating\" to a large number of Chinese concept stocks, repeatedly crushing the bulls.</p><p>Some people got on board and bought more as the price fell, while others got off the boat, willing to cut their losses and exit the market. The huge differences seem to make the future of Chinese concept stocks even more unpredictable.</p><p>This article mainly answers the reasons for the decline in Chinese concept stocks, and what domestic and foreign funds bought at the bottom. It is divided into three parts:</p><p>1) Unveiling: Why did Chinese concept stocks plummet?</p><p>2) Bottom-fishing: Domestic funds buy \"platforms\"</p><p>3) Changes: Overseas institutions love to play with cars.</p><p><b>01. Why did it plummet?</b></p><p>\"Just out of the ICU, now in a karaoke bar\"—the recent performance of Chinese concept stocks is almost frenzied. However, short-term pleasure cannot soothe the wounded hearts of investors.</p><p>According to Wind data, as of the market close on March 21, 231 out of 370 Chinese concept stocks have fallen year-to-date, accounting for 62%. Among them, 29 stocks saw their share prices halved, with Tiandihui and Juhao Mall both falling by nearly 90%. In a market without price limits, the price drops wildly.</p><p>The situation is even more dire if we statistically analyze the decline in stock prices since their peak. For example, Alibaba, currently the largest Chinese concept stock by market capitalization, hit a historical high of $319.32 at the end of October 2020, but its current stock price is less than one-third of that at the time, a drop of as much as 67%, with a low of $73.28 during that period. Chinese concept stocks such as Baidu and Pinduoduo have all fallen by more than 50% since their peak, and even JD.com, which is relatively resilient, has fallen by 40%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/693d152af3bc7480f2d07bf9b4e2479d\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1047\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Internet companies listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, such as Tencent Holdings, Meituan, and Xiaomi, have also seen their stock prices decline steadily, to the point where their shareholders are unaware of them.</p><p>This round of correction in Chinese concept stocks is unprecedented in history in terms of the magnitude of the decline, the length of the cycle, and the breadth of the impact. The reasons behind it certainly cannot be simply explained by performance. Behind the near-total annihilation can be summarized in four words: internal and external troubles.</p><p>As we all know, the biggest \"external threat\" facing Chinese concept stocks is the risk of delisting.</p><p>Under the Foreign Company Accountability Act passed by the U.S. Congress in 2020, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is allowed to delist a foreign company from an exchange if it fails to submit the reports required by the U.S. Public Company Accounting Oversight Board for three consecutive years. This includes the unequal requirement for foreign companies listed in the US to disclose audit working papers.</p><p>On March 10 this year, the SEC added five Chinese concept companies to the provisional list of the Foreign Company Accountability Act, which once again triggered a sell-off of Chinese concept stocks and gave investors a more intuitive feeling of the devastation of delisting. The risk of delisting, in essence, is a crisis of trust, and the pressure on Chinese concept stocks mainly comes from two aspects:</p><p>First, there are concerns about liquidity discounts. The US stock market is a global market with abundant liquidity. Listing in the US has a higher premium and greater financing efficiency. In comparison, Hong Kong stocks have less abundant liquidity, and the premium for listing in Hong Kong is lower. The transfer of Chinese concept stocks to Hong Kong stocks after delisting in the US tests the absorption capacity of domestic investors and may involve the risk of liquidity discount.</p><p>Secondly, there is pressure from concentrated selling by US dollar investors. Currently, there are still a large number of overseas institutions among the shareholders of Chinese concept stocks. If these companies are delisted from the US stock market, it will inevitably trigger a large-scale sell-off by overseas investors.</p><p>To make matters worse, it rained overnight. The sword of delisting hangs in the air, and the tightening of domestic industry regulatory policies has cast an unpredictable shadow over the prospects of Chinese concept stocks.</p><p>Over the past year, policies such as anti-monopoly measures in the internet industry, double reduction measures in the education industry, and new regulations to prevent online game addiction have been introduced one after another. Although these policies have good intentions and are not intended to suppress individual industries or companies, it takes time for overseas investors to adjust their expectations of domestic policies, which can easily lead to a short-term overreaction in the market, a sharp drop in risk appetite, and a panic decline.</p><p>In conversations with some fund managers, it was discovered that there is another opinion regarding the reasons for the decline in Chinese concept stocks. Some believe that after years of development, the internet penetration rate is very high, and the industry has entered the latter half of its development. In recent years, the growth logic of the internet industry has been market penetration, but the overall industry space may be approaching the \"ceiling\", and it is expected that the industry growth rate will peak and decline in the future.</p><p>In other words, the period of rapid growth in the internet industry has passed, and it will enter a mature period in the future, reducing the potential for valuation. While this view is somewhat hindsight, it undoubtedly exacerbates the market's pessimistic expectations.</p><p>However, delisting, policy regulation, and the peaking of industry growth may only be the superficial reasons for the decline of Chinese concept stocks. The deeper reason lies in the change in the underlying valuation logic.</p><p>With common prosperity placed in an important position, as economic development shifts from high speed to high quality, and the distribution system shifts from prioritizing efficiency to taking into account fairness, the market's valuation system may be reshaped.</p><p>The ghost story that staunch holders of Chinese concept stocks fear most is that the internet will become a public utility. As we all know, technology stocks often grow rapidly, have huge industry potential, and the market is willing to give them high valuations. Conversely, public utility companies are not as attractive in terms of either performance growth or industry potential. If such a change were to occur, internet companies would inevitably face a double whammy of performance and valuation.</p><p>Compared to the simple and straightforward aspects of performance, company valuations are far more ambiguous and often subject to differing opinions. The biggest problem currently facing internet companies is that when the market environment changes dramatically, there is no consensus among market participants on how much they are worth and how to value them. There is also no standard to refer to. According to Jiang Cheng of Zhongtai Asset Management, the underlying reason is the lack of a \"value anchor\".</p><p>Although the shadow of delisting has not yet dissipated and the original valuation logic may be overturned and started over, in the face of internet companies whose stock prices have often been halved and whose valuations have entered a historically low range, bottom-fishing funds have been rushing in one after another.</p><p><b>02. Domestic funds buy \"platforms\"</b></p><p>Deng Xiaofeng, chief investment officer of Gaoyi Asset Management, shared his views on the internet industry during an online exchange with investors earlier this year.</p><p>In his view, the internet industry is similar to the liquor industry in 2012 and 2013. At the time, affected by the \"Eight-Point Regulation\" and the \"plasticizer\" incident, liquor stocks continued to adjust until they began to recover in 2016. However, this did not prevent the industry from achieving high returns in the long term, because liquor itself is a good business. The internet business model is also excellent. Once the industry stabilizes, it is easy to generate considerable returns for shareholders.</p><p>He believes that when external factors have the greatest impact on Chinese internet companies listed in the US, it is likely that the industry will perform at its worst in the capital market. He asserted that although the upside potential and timing of the internet industry are still uncertain, it is at least an industry with very little downside risk this year.</p><p>It is unknown whether Deng Xiaofeng bought Chinese concept stocks at the bottom during the panic decline in early March, but his optimistic expectations for the internet industry are undoubtedly representative. Duan Yongping, known as \"China's Buffett,\" is also a staunch believer in Chinese concept stocks. He once rose to fame by buying NetEase at the bottom during the dot-com bubble. Now, besides \"venture capitalizing\" on Pinduoduo, his buying of Tencent at the bottom is the most talked-about topic.</p><p>In 2018, Tencent's stock price plummeted due to issues such as the suspension of game licenses, with a drop of more than 40% in just a few months. Duan Yongping took the opportunity to get on board. Last year, Tencent was criticized as \"spiritual opium,\" and its stock price plummeted by nearly 40% again. On August 4, Duan Yongping said on Xueqiu (ID: The Great Way is Invisible, I am Stylish) that he bought Tencent and continued to buy it if it fell again, buying at the bottom for the second time. On February 28th of this year, some Xueqiu fans joked that Tencent had reached the bottom of the road again. Duan Yongping replied, \"It's lower than the price I bought it last time, so I'll buy some more tomorrow.\" Since then, he has repeatedly expressed his optimism about Tencent.</p><p>On March 8, in response to a netizen's question, he said, \"I plan to increase my position once every 10% drop.\" On March 14, he said that in another week or two, some Apple put options should expire, and he could consider buying some more at that time. The next morning, he claimed again, \"I'm planning to exchange some Berkshire Hathaway B shares for Tencent tomorrow, I won't wait any longer.\" However, these words may be more like a joke. He once said that Tencent's appeal to him wasn't enough to make him sell any other stocks, and if it fell a few more times, he might have to think about it seriously.</p><p>In the past few years, Tencent has been widely criticized for its gaming business. As the creator of the game learning machine \"Little Tyrant,\" Duan Yongping has a different perspective on games. He once explained his reasons for buying Tencent. In his view, the most fundamental thing about games is to spend time and gain happiness, and online games are the most cost-effective way for most people to obtain simple happiness. Games are no different from other consumer goods, and there is no question of conscience. If we take a 10-year view, holding Moutai and Tencent should be better than holding cash.</p><p>Even Duan Yongping, who made a high-profile buying spree on Tencent, still holds a very low proportion of Tencent shares. In contrast,<b>Some domestic public funds are the backbone of heavily investing in or buying Chinese concept stocks against the trend.</b></p><p>For example, SDIC UBS China Value Discovery has consistently held significant positions in Tencent Holdings and Alibaba, and increased its holdings in the latter in the fourth quarter of last year, currently holding the first and second largest positions respectively. Fund manager Tang Haibo said he is optimistic about platform-based internet companies that have been suppressed by continuous policies over the past year and whose valuations are currently at historically low levels. He believes there is still ample room for development in these industries and believes in the competitive advantages of leading Chinese internet companies globally.</p><p>Zhang Jun, fund manager of Invesco Morgan Stanley Asia Pacific Advantage Fund, also said that the forward P/E of Chinese concept stocks is about 13 times, while that of the US stock market is more than 20 times. Chinese stocks are not expensive. Even if P/E remains at current levels, the expected economic expansion should drive a significant increase in corporate earnings in the coming years.</p><p>Hu Yaosheng, fund manager of Chuangjin Hexin Hong Kong Stock Internet Fund, put forward the logic of being optimistic about the internet industry from the perspective of performance. In his fourth-quarter report, he stated that core internet companies still maintained a high growth rate in revenue. Although profits were not ideal, it was not because the company had problems with its operations, and there were no risks to its fundamentals. The current stock price decline is somewhat overreacting. In the fourth quarter, he poured real money into his understanding, increasing his holdings in stocks such as Meituan, Tencent Holdings, Alibaba, JD.com, and Baidu.</p><p>Statistics on the top holdings of mutual funds reveal that leading internet companies and platform companies remain the top choice for domestic capital allocation, even for QDII funds with a wider investment scope. Specifically, leading stocks such as Tencent, Meituan, Alibaba, and JD.com have become essential holdings for many funds.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/18ef80ff846d568d3767f826d9465a9f\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"730\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Domestic investors understand China best and Chinese companies best. The fair value of internet companies may be impossible to judge, but many of these companies are good companies, a fact that many people firmly believe. They buy more as the price falls, but in the long run, the only loss may be time.</p><p>Moreover, when the margin of safety has fallen significantly enough, even overseas investors in foreign countries have gradually reached a consensus on buying Chinese concept stocks at the bottom.</p><p><b>03. Foreign institutions love playing with cars</b></p><p>The 97-year-old Munger has never hidden his optimism about the Chinese economy and Chinese concept stocks.</p><p>According to recently disclosed 13F filings, as of the end of December 2021, Charlie Munger's company, Daily Journal Corp., held a total of 602,060 shares of Alibaba through American Depositary Receipts (ADRs), with a market value of approximately US$72 million, accounting for about 28%, making it the company's third largest holding.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9fc040ddf768d01d0aea9c221812efaa\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"535\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>It is worth mentioning that compared with the third quarter of last year, the number of Alibaba shares purchased by Daily Journal in the fourth quarter nearly doubled. Such a large increase in holdings shows that Munger truly loves Alibaba and his confidence in the Chinese economy and the Internet is not just words.</p><p>In the first quarter of last year, Alibaba's stock price plummeted, and Munger bought 165,320 shares for the first time; Alibaba's stock price fluctuated relatively little in the second quarter, and he was not in a hurry to increase his position, but simply maintained his previous holdings. Alibaba's stock price fell by nearly 35% in the third quarter. Munger made another move, buying 136,740 shares, bringing his total holdings to 300,000 shares. Alibaba's stock price fell by nearly 20% again in the fourth quarter. This time, he chose to take a decisive action, buying 300,000 shares in one go.</p><p>Despite buying more as prices fall and the continuous reduction in holding costs, premature bottom-fishing still puts Munger in a somewhat passive position in this investment. As a result, at the recent Daily Journal shareholders' meeting, his views on Chinese concept stocks and Alibaba were repeatedly raised by shareholders.</p><p>In response to shareholder questions, Munger stated that he invested in Chinese companies because he could buy more value. Some Chinese companies are not only cheaper, but also more competitive. Compared to investment opportunities in the United States, investment opportunities in China are better, and they can be purchased at cheaper prices to obtain higher corporate value.<b>He doesn't see Alibaba's shareholding structure as a particularly big risk; he just feels that its moat isn't as deep as Apple and Alphabet.</b></p><p>In fact, Munger is not alone in his pursuit of buying Chinese concept stocks at rock-bottom prices.</p><p>Vanguard Group, which is well-known to domestic investors, bought 74 Chinese concept stocks in the fourth quarter of last year, all of which were new holdings. The stocks with the highest market capitalization holdings include Baidu, Nio, XPeng Automobile, Pinduoduo, and Li Auto. However, Pioneer Group did not buy established e-commerce retail giants such as Alibaba and JD.com, but instead chose the rising star Pinduoduo.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/06055d73f7cf1860d227a11b89cbf027\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"722\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>In the fourth quarter, BlackRock saw both increases and decreases in its holdings of Chinese concept stocks, increasing its holdings in 63 Chinese concept stocks and reducing or liquidating its holdings in 66 Chinese concept stocks. In addition, it made new purchases in 4 Chinese concept stocks, including RYB Education and Dingdong Maicai. Among them, Nio, Pinduoduo, Li Auto, Alibaba and other stocks all saw increased holdings, while Baidu, Yum China and XPeng Automobile saw slight reductions in holdings.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d4d9672340b514df2dd4c24c6fa6910d\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"793\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Interestingly, well-known foreign institutions such as State Street, JPMorgan Chase, Bank of New York Mellon, the Norwegian Central Bank, and Goldman Sachs have shown strong interest in China's \"emerging car manufacturers,\" increasing their holdings in related companies in the fourth quarter. Among them, Nio received the most attention, with 149 institutions increasing their holdings and 189 institutions making new purchases.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70ad4f29b0386e4aa8a269f32a110be5\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"793\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>In terms of the number of shareholding institutions, Alibaba has the largest number of foreign investors, reaching 1,287, a slight decrease compared to the third quarter. In addition, Yum China, JD.com, Baidu, and Nio all have more than 500 institutional holdings.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/010e1c582eed020439cd680854100f5f\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"688\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Of course, there are disagreements among foreign institutions regarding Chinese concept stocks, especially Chinese internet companies that are at the forefront of anti-monopoly efforts. However, for some good companies, especially high-quality companies that are growing rapidly in the Chinese market, they are never stingy with their ammunition, such as Pinduoduo, a new car manufacturer that started by focusing on the lower-tier market.</p><p><b>04. Ending</b></p><p>Duan Yongping was once asked by a reporter, \"Where did you get the courage to buy NetEase when it fell to only $0.80?\" He countered, \"What kind of courage does it take to sell something that was originally worth 10 yuan to you for 1 yuan?\"</p><p>When prices are significantly lower than the company's value, buying at the bottom certainly doesn't require courage or boldness, but it does require bullets.</p><p>Often, investing leads to the dilemma of \"learning it as soon as you see it, and then losing it as soon as you learn it,\" because it relates to both ability and the lack of freedom of funds. Most people lack the ability to judge a company's value, and stock price bottoming out and value discovery usually don't happen at the same time.</p><p>After all, there was only one Duan Yongping, but there were many who fell in the darkness before dawn.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"lsy1583835599575","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The Mystery of Chinese Concept Internet: What Do You Believe in?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe Mystery of Chinese Concept Internet: What Do You Believe in?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">远川投资评论</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-03-27 08:18</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Over the years, institutions have painstakingly educated fund investors to \"buy more as prices fall,\" but it seems that only Chinese internet companies listed in the US can make people both criticize the idea of changing the name to \"mutual pity between Chinese beggars\" and obediently hand over their money.</p><p>On February 18, 2021, the market price of the E Fund China Concept Internet ETF hit a record high. At that time, the fund had fewer than 3.5 billion units, and the product's reputation was far less than it is now. Unexpectedly, during the subsequent continuous decline in net asset value and market price, the fund's share size increased rather than decreased, more than tenfold in just over a year, approaching 35.5 billion units. (Bank of Communications) China Concept Internet LOF, (GF) China Concept Internet ETF, Hang Seng Technology ETF, and other index funds that can invest in Hong Kong stocks and the internet have all achieved a great leap in share during this period.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/002c4daa1600178dc042fd90aa7fe201\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"840\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>This kind of \"suicidal\" bottom-fishing behavior would lead investors accustomed to conspiracy theories to believe without hesitation that it was probably institutional investors luring retail investors deeper into the market. That's not actually the case.</p><p>Wind data shows that while the share and size of E Fund's China Concept Internet ETF are rising against the trend, the proportion of institutional holdings is increasing slightly, and the proportion of internal holdings is also increasing slightly. This indicates that not only institutional funds, but also fund company insiders are constantly buying at the bottom during the decline of Chinese concept stocks.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/275016ee3f4b499c5320654bfaa41997\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"840\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>While domestic funds were enthusiastic about buying at the bottom, foreign capital faced a blow. The 13F report shows that several foreign companies, including Goldman Sachs, Temasek, BlackRock, and JPMorgan Chase, have reduced their holdings in leading Chinese concept stocks such as Alibaba. Five Chinese concept stocks have been added to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission's \"pre-delisting list,\" and JPMorgan Chase has given a \"sell rating\" to a large number of Chinese concept stocks, repeatedly crushing the bulls.</p><p>Some people got on board and bought more as the price fell, while others got off the boat, willing to cut their losses and exit the market. The huge differences seem to make the future of Chinese concept stocks even more unpredictable.</p><p>This article mainly answers the reasons for the decline in Chinese concept stocks, and what domestic and foreign funds bought at the bottom. It is divided into three parts:</p><p>1) Unveiling: Why did Chinese concept stocks plummet?</p><p>2) Bottom-fishing: Domestic funds buy \"platforms\"</p><p>3) Changes: Overseas institutions love to play with cars.</p><p><b>01. Why did it plummet?</b></p><p>\"Just out of the ICU, now in a karaoke bar\"—the recent performance of Chinese concept stocks is almost frenzied. However, short-term pleasure cannot soothe the wounded hearts of investors.</p><p>According to Wind data, as of the market close on March 21, 231 out of 370 Chinese concept stocks have fallen year-to-date, accounting for 62%. Among them, 29 stocks saw their share prices halved, with Tiandihui and Juhao Mall both falling by nearly 90%. In a market without price limits, the price drops wildly.</p><p>The situation is even more dire if we statistically analyze the decline in stock prices since their peak. For example, Alibaba, currently the largest Chinese concept stock by market capitalization, hit a historical high of $319.32 at the end of October 2020, but its current stock price is less than one-third of that at the time, a drop of as much as 67%, with a low of $73.28 during that period. Chinese concept stocks such as Baidu and Pinduoduo have all fallen by more than 50% since their peak, and even JD.com, which is relatively resilient, has fallen by 40%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/693d152af3bc7480f2d07bf9b4e2479d\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1047\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Internet companies listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, such as Tencent Holdings, Meituan, and Xiaomi, have also seen their stock prices decline steadily, to the point where their shareholders are unaware of them.</p><p>This round of correction in Chinese concept stocks is unprecedented in history in terms of the magnitude of the decline, the length of the cycle, and the breadth of the impact. The reasons behind it certainly cannot be simply explained by performance. Behind the near-total annihilation can be summarized in four words: internal and external troubles.</p><p>As we all know, the biggest \"external threat\" facing Chinese concept stocks is the risk of delisting.</p><p>Under the Foreign Company Accountability Act passed by the U.S. Congress in 2020, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is allowed to delist a foreign company from an exchange if it fails to submit the reports required by the U.S. Public Company Accounting Oversight Board for three consecutive years. This includes the unequal requirement for foreign companies listed in the US to disclose audit working papers.</p><p>On March 10 this year, the SEC added five Chinese concept companies to the provisional list of the Foreign Company Accountability Act, which once again triggered a sell-off of Chinese concept stocks and gave investors a more intuitive feeling of the devastation of delisting. The risk of delisting, in essence, is a crisis of trust, and the pressure on Chinese concept stocks mainly comes from two aspects:</p><p>First, there are concerns about liquidity discounts. The US stock market is a global market with abundant liquidity. Listing in the US has a higher premium and greater financing efficiency. In comparison, Hong Kong stocks have less abundant liquidity, and the premium for listing in Hong Kong is lower. The transfer of Chinese concept stocks to Hong Kong stocks after delisting in the US tests the absorption capacity of domestic investors and may involve the risk of liquidity discount.</p><p>Secondly, there is pressure from concentrated selling by US dollar investors. Currently, there are still a large number of overseas institutions among the shareholders of Chinese concept stocks. If these companies are delisted from the US stock market, it will inevitably trigger a large-scale sell-off by overseas investors.</p><p>To make matters worse, it rained overnight. The sword of delisting hangs in the air, and the tightening of domestic industry regulatory policies has cast an unpredictable shadow over the prospects of Chinese concept stocks.</p><p>Over the past year, policies such as anti-monopoly measures in the internet industry, double reduction measures in the education industry, and new regulations to prevent online game addiction have been introduced one after another. Although these policies have good intentions and are not intended to suppress individual industries or companies, it takes time for overseas investors to adjust their expectations of domestic policies, which can easily lead to a short-term overreaction in the market, a sharp drop in risk appetite, and a panic decline.</p><p>In conversations with some fund managers, it was discovered that there is another opinion regarding the reasons for the decline in Chinese concept stocks. Some believe that after years of development, the internet penetration rate is very high, and the industry has entered the latter half of its development. In recent years, the growth logic of the internet industry has been market penetration, but the overall industry space may be approaching the \"ceiling\", and it is expected that the industry growth rate will peak and decline in the future.</p><p>In other words, the period of rapid growth in the internet industry has passed, and it will enter a mature period in the future, reducing the potential for valuation. While this view is somewhat hindsight, it undoubtedly exacerbates the market's pessimistic expectations.</p><p>However, delisting, policy regulation, and the peaking of industry growth may only be the superficial reasons for the decline of Chinese concept stocks. The deeper reason lies in the change in the underlying valuation logic.</p><p>With common prosperity placed in an important position, as economic development shifts from high speed to high quality, and the distribution system shifts from prioritizing efficiency to taking into account fairness, the market's valuation system may be reshaped.</p><p>The ghost story that staunch holders of Chinese concept stocks fear most is that the internet will become a public utility. As we all know, technology stocks often grow rapidly, have huge industry potential, and the market is willing to give them high valuations. Conversely, public utility companies are not as attractive in terms of either performance growth or industry potential. If such a change were to occur, internet companies would inevitably face a double whammy of performance and valuation.</p><p>Compared to the simple and straightforward aspects of performance, company valuations are far more ambiguous and often subject to differing opinions. The biggest problem currently facing internet companies is that when the market environment changes dramatically, there is no consensus among market participants on how much they are worth and how to value them. There is also no standard to refer to. According to Jiang Cheng of Zhongtai Asset Management, the underlying reason is the lack of a \"value anchor\".</p><p>Although the shadow of delisting has not yet dissipated and the original valuation logic may be overturned and started over, in the face of internet companies whose stock prices have often been halved and whose valuations have entered a historically low range, bottom-fishing funds have been rushing in one after another.</p><p><b>02. Domestic funds buy \"platforms\"</b></p><p>Deng Xiaofeng, chief investment officer of Gaoyi Asset Management, shared his views on the internet industry during an online exchange with investors earlier this year.</p><p>In his view, the internet industry is similar to the liquor industry in 2012 and 2013. At the time, affected by the \"Eight-Point Regulation\" and the \"plasticizer\" incident, liquor stocks continued to adjust until they began to recover in 2016. However, this did not prevent the industry from achieving high returns in the long term, because liquor itself is a good business. The internet business model is also excellent. Once the industry stabilizes, it is easy to generate considerable returns for shareholders.</p><p>He believes that when external factors have the greatest impact on Chinese internet companies listed in the US, it is likely that the industry will perform at its worst in the capital market. He asserted that although the upside potential and timing of the internet industry are still uncertain, it is at least an industry with very little downside risk this year.</p><p>It is unknown whether Deng Xiaofeng bought Chinese concept stocks at the bottom during the panic decline in early March, but his optimistic expectations for the internet industry are undoubtedly representative. Duan Yongping, known as \"China's Buffett,\" is also a staunch believer in Chinese concept stocks. He once rose to fame by buying NetEase at the bottom during the dot-com bubble. Now, besides \"venture capitalizing\" on Pinduoduo, his buying of Tencent at the bottom is the most talked-about topic.</p><p>In 2018, Tencent's stock price plummeted due to issues such as the suspension of game licenses, with a drop of more than 40% in just a few months. Duan Yongping took the opportunity to get on board. Last year, Tencent was criticized as \"spiritual opium,\" and its stock price plummeted by nearly 40% again. On August 4, Duan Yongping said on Xueqiu (ID: The Great Way is Invisible, I am Stylish) that he bought Tencent and continued to buy it if it fell again, buying at the bottom for the second time. On February 28th of this year, some Xueqiu fans joked that Tencent had reached the bottom of the road again. Duan Yongping replied, \"It's lower than the price I bought it last time, so I'll buy some more tomorrow.\" Since then, he has repeatedly expressed his optimism about Tencent.</p><p>On March 8, in response to a netizen's question, he said, \"I plan to increase my position once every 10% drop.\" On March 14, he said that in another week or two, some Apple put options should expire, and he could consider buying some more at that time. The next morning, he claimed again, \"I'm planning to exchange some Berkshire Hathaway B shares for Tencent tomorrow, I won't wait any longer.\" However, these words may be more like a joke. He once said that Tencent's appeal to him wasn't enough to make him sell any other stocks, and if it fell a few more times, he might have to think about it seriously.</p><p>In the past few years, Tencent has been widely criticized for its gaming business. As the creator of the game learning machine \"Little Tyrant,\" Duan Yongping has a different perspective on games. He once explained his reasons for buying Tencent. In his view, the most fundamental thing about games is to spend time and gain happiness, and online games are the most cost-effective way for most people to obtain simple happiness. Games are no different from other consumer goods, and there is no question of conscience. If we take a 10-year view, holding Moutai and Tencent should be better than holding cash.</p><p>Even Duan Yongping, who made a high-profile buying spree on Tencent, still holds a very low proportion of Tencent shares. In contrast,<b>Some domestic public funds are the backbone of heavily investing in or buying Chinese concept stocks against the trend.</b></p><p>For example, SDIC UBS China Value Discovery has consistently held significant positions in Tencent Holdings and Alibaba, and increased its holdings in the latter in the fourth quarter of last year, currently holding the first and second largest positions respectively. Fund manager Tang Haibo said he is optimistic about platform-based internet companies that have been suppressed by continuous policies over the past year and whose valuations are currently at historically low levels. He believes there is still ample room for development in these industries and believes in the competitive advantages of leading Chinese internet companies globally.</p><p>Zhang Jun, fund manager of Invesco Morgan Stanley Asia Pacific Advantage Fund, also said that the forward P/E of Chinese concept stocks is about 13 times, while that of the US stock market is more than 20 times. Chinese stocks are not expensive. Even if P/E remains at current levels, the expected economic expansion should drive a significant increase in corporate earnings in the coming years.</p><p>Hu Yaosheng, fund manager of Chuangjin Hexin Hong Kong Stock Internet Fund, put forward the logic of being optimistic about the internet industry from the perspective of performance. In his fourth-quarter report, he stated that core internet companies still maintained a high growth rate in revenue. Although profits were not ideal, it was not because the company had problems with its operations, and there were no risks to its fundamentals. The current stock price decline is somewhat overreacting. In the fourth quarter, he poured real money into his understanding, increasing his holdings in stocks such as Meituan, Tencent Holdings, Alibaba, JD.com, and Baidu.</p><p>Statistics on the top holdings of mutual funds reveal that leading internet companies and platform companies remain the top choice for domestic capital allocation, even for QDII funds with a wider investment scope. Specifically, leading stocks such as Tencent, Meituan, Alibaba, and JD.com have become essential holdings for many funds.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/18ef80ff846d568d3767f826d9465a9f\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"730\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Domestic investors understand China best and Chinese companies best. The fair value of internet companies may be impossible to judge, but many of these companies are good companies, a fact that many people firmly believe. They buy more as the price falls, but in the long run, the only loss may be time.</p><p>Moreover, when the margin of safety has fallen significantly enough, even overseas investors in foreign countries have gradually reached a consensus on buying Chinese concept stocks at the bottom.</p><p><b>03. Foreign institutions love playing with cars</b></p><p>The 97-year-old Munger has never hidden his optimism about the Chinese economy and Chinese concept stocks.</p><p>According to recently disclosed 13F filings, as of the end of December 2021, Charlie Munger's company, Daily Journal Corp., held a total of 602,060 shares of Alibaba through American Depositary Receipts (ADRs), with a market value of approximately US$72 million, accounting for about 28%, making it the company's third largest holding.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9fc040ddf768d01d0aea9c221812efaa\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"535\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>It is worth mentioning that compared with the third quarter of last year, the number of Alibaba shares purchased by Daily Journal in the fourth quarter nearly doubled. Such a large increase in holdings shows that Munger truly loves Alibaba and his confidence in the Chinese economy and the Internet is not just words.</p><p>In the first quarter of last year, Alibaba's stock price plummeted, and Munger bought 165,320 shares for the first time; Alibaba's stock price fluctuated relatively little in the second quarter, and he was not in a hurry to increase his position, but simply maintained his previous holdings. Alibaba's stock price fell by nearly 35% in the third quarter. Munger made another move, buying 136,740 shares, bringing his total holdings to 300,000 shares. Alibaba's stock price fell by nearly 20% again in the fourth quarter. This time, he chose to take a decisive action, buying 300,000 shares in one go.</p><p>Despite buying more as prices fall and the continuous reduction in holding costs, premature bottom-fishing still puts Munger in a somewhat passive position in this investment. As a result, at the recent Daily Journal shareholders' meeting, his views on Chinese concept stocks and Alibaba were repeatedly raised by shareholders.</p><p>In response to shareholder questions, Munger stated that he invested in Chinese companies because he could buy more value. Some Chinese companies are not only cheaper, but also more competitive. Compared to investment opportunities in the United States, investment opportunities in China are better, and they can be purchased at cheaper prices to obtain higher corporate value.<b>He doesn't see Alibaba's shareholding structure as a particularly big risk; he just feels that its moat isn't as deep as Apple and Alphabet.</b></p><p>In fact, Munger is not alone in his pursuit of buying Chinese concept stocks at rock-bottom prices.</p><p>Vanguard Group, which is well-known to domestic investors, bought 74 Chinese concept stocks in the fourth quarter of last year, all of which were new holdings. The stocks with the highest market capitalization holdings include Baidu, Nio, XPeng Automobile, Pinduoduo, and Li Auto. However, Pioneer Group did not buy established e-commerce retail giants such as Alibaba and JD.com, but instead chose the rising star Pinduoduo.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/06055d73f7cf1860d227a11b89cbf027\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"722\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>In the fourth quarter, BlackRock saw both increases and decreases in its holdings of Chinese concept stocks, increasing its holdings in 63 Chinese concept stocks and reducing or liquidating its holdings in 66 Chinese concept stocks. In addition, it made new purchases in 4 Chinese concept stocks, including RYB Education and Dingdong Maicai. Among them, Nio, Pinduoduo, Li Auto, Alibaba and other stocks all saw increased holdings, while Baidu, Yum China and XPeng Automobile saw slight reductions in holdings.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d4d9672340b514df2dd4c24c6fa6910d\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"793\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Interestingly, well-known foreign institutions such as State Street, JPMorgan Chase, Bank of New York Mellon, the Norwegian Central Bank, and Goldman Sachs have shown strong interest in China's \"emerging car manufacturers,\" increasing their holdings in related companies in the fourth quarter. Among them, Nio received the most attention, with 149 institutions increasing their holdings and 189 institutions making new purchases.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70ad4f29b0386e4aa8a269f32a110be5\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"793\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>In terms of the number of shareholding institutions, Alibaba has the largest number of foreign investors, reaching 1,287, a slight decrease compared to the third quarter. In addition, Yum China, JD.com, Baidu, and Nio all have more than 500 institutional holdings.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/010e1c582eed020439cd680854100f5f\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"688\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Of course, there are disagreements among foreign institutions regarding Chinese concept stocks, especially Chinese internet companies that are at the forefront of anti-monopoly efforts. However, for some good companies, especially high-quality companies that are growing rapidly in the Chinese market, they are never stingy with their ammunition, such as Pinduoduo, a new car manufacturer that started by focusing on the lower-tier market.</p><p><b>04. Ending</b></p><p>Duan Yongping was once asked by a reporter, \"Where did you get the courage to buy NetEase when it fell to only $0.80?\" He countered, \"What kind of courage does it take to sell something that was originally worth 10 yuan to you for 1 yuan?\"</p><p>When prices are significantly lower than the company's value, buying at the bottom certainly doesn't require courage or boldness, but it does require bullets.</p><p>Often, investing leads to the dilemma of \"learning it as soon as you see it, and then losing it as soon as you learn it,\" because it relates to both ability and the lack of freedom of funds. Most people lack the ability to judge a company's value, and stock price bottoming out and value discovery usually don't happen at the same time.</p><p>After all, there was only one Duan Yongping, but there were many who fell in the darkness before dawn.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/XPCA4w1aSfUe4N1SA4X6-g\">远川投资评论</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a00745cd781f91ef6ef359064c639fbb","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/XPCA4w1aSfUe4N1SA4X6-g","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1104202250","content_text":"这些年，机构苦口婆心教育基民“越跌越买”，但似乎只有中概互联，能让大家一边痛骂不如改名“中丐互怜”，一边乖乖掏钱。2021年2月18日，（易方达）中概互联网ETF场内价格创出历史新高。当时，这只基金的份额不到35亿份，产品的名气远没有现在这么大。没想到的是，在随后净值和场内价格持续下跌过程中，这只基金的份额不减反增，1年多时间翻了10倍以上，直逼355亿份。（交银）中概互联网LOF、（广发）中概互联ETF、恒生科技ETF等可投港股互联网的指数基金，份额在这期间都实现了大跃进。这种“自杀式”的抄底行为，习惯了阴谋论的投资者们会不假思索地认为，八成又是机构在诱韭菜深入。其实并非如此。Wind 数据显示，在（易方达）中概互联网ETF份额和规模逆势攀升之际，机构持有比例在小幅上升，而且内部持有比例也在小幅升高，这说明不仅是机构资金，基金公司内部人员也在中概股下跌的过程中不断抄底。当国内资金抄底热情满满，外资却迎头一棒。13F报告显示，高盛、淡马锡、贝莱德、摩根大通等多家外资减持了阿里巴巴等中概股龙头。而5家中概股更被美国证监会列入“预摘牌名单”，摩根大通对中概股批量给出“卖出评级”，冷冷冰雨把多头按在地上反复摩擦。有人上车，越跌越买，有人下船，不惜割肉离场。巨大的分歧，似乎让中概股的未来更加扑朔迷离。本文主要回答中概股下跌的原因，以及国内外资金抄底都买了什么，一共分为三个部分：1）揭秘：中概股为何大跌？2）抄底：国内资金买“平台”3）变化：海外机构爱玩车01、缘何大跌？“刚出ICU，又进KTV”，中概股最近的表现几近癫狂。不过，短暂的欢愉并不能抚慰投资者受伤的心。Wind数据显示，截至3月21日收盘，370只中概股中有231只今年以来下跌，占比62%；其中，股价腰斩的个股29只，天地荟、聚好商城跌幅均逼近90%。没有涨跌板限制的市场，跌起来就是这么奔放。若统计股价高点至今的跌幅，情况更为惨烈。比如，目前中概股市值最大的阿里巴巴，2020年10月底曾创出了319.32美元的历史最高价，而如今股价不到当时的1/3，跌幅高达67%，期间最低跌至73.28美元；百度、拼多多等中概股自高点以来的跌幅均在50%以上，即使是较为抗跌的京东跌幅也达到40%。在港股上市的腾讯控股、美团、小米等互联网公司，股价也节节败退，跌到股东都不认识。中概股这轮调整，下跌幅度之大、周期之长、波及范围之广历史罕见，背后原因肯定不能简单的用业绩来解释。近乎团灭的背后，总的就是四个字：内忧外患。众所周知，中概股面临的最大“外患”就是退市风险。根据美国国会2020年通过的《外国公司问责法案》，如果外国上市公司连续三年未能提交美国上市公司会计监督委员会所要求的报告，允许美国证监会（SEC）将其从交易所摘牌；其中就包括在美上市的外国公司需要披露审计底稿的不对等要求。今年3月10日，SEC将5家中概股公司列入《外国公司问责法》的暂定清单，再次引发了中概股的抛售潮，让投资者对退市的杀伤力有了更直观的感受。退市风险，说到底是信任危机，对中概股造成的压力主要来自于两个方面：一是，对流动性折价的担忧。美股是一个全球性的市场，流动性泛滥，在美上市的溢价比较高，融资效率更高；与之相比，港股流动性没有那么充裕，在港上市的溢价较低。中概股在美退市后转到港股上市，考验着国内投资者的承接能力，可能存在流动性折价风险。二是，美元投资者集中抛售的压力。目前中概股股东中仍有大量的海外机构，若这些公司从美股退市，势必会引发海外投资者的大规模抛售。屋漏偏逢连夜雨。退市之剑悬而未落，国内行业监管政策的收紧，又给中概股的前景蒙着捉摸不透的阴影。在过去一年多里，互联网行业反垄断、教育行业“双减”、网络游戏防沉迷新规等政策陆续出台。尽管这些政策的出发点都是好的，并非为了打压个别行业和企业，但海外投资者对国内政策预期调整需要时间，容易导致市场短期过度反应，风险偏好骤降，出现恐慌式下跌。在与一些基金经理的交流中发现，对于中概股下跌的原因，还有另外一种声音。有人认为，经过多年发展，互联网的渗透率非常高，行业发展进入后半段，近几年互联网行业的增长逻辑是市场下沉，但整个行业空间或许已经逼近“天花板”，预计未来行业增速将见顶回落。换句话说，互联网行业高速成长期已经过去了，未来将进入成熟期，估值的想象空间变小了。这样的看法虽然有些“马后炮”，但无疑加重了市场的悲观预期。不过，退市、政策监管，以及行业增速见顶，可能都只是中概股下跌的表层原因，深层次的原因在于底层估值逻辑发生了变化。当共同富裕摆在了重要的位置，当经济发展从高速度转变为高质量，分配制度也从效率优先到兼顾公平，在此背景下，市场的估值体系可能被重塑。中概股的坚定持有者们最怕听到的鬼故事，就是互联网要变为公共事业。众所周知，科技股往往增速快，行业空间巨大，市场也愿意给它们高估值；相反，公共事业公司无论是业绩增速，还是行业空间，都没有那么性感。如果真的发生这种改变，互联网公司势必会遇到业绩和估值的双杀压力。相比业绩的简单直白，公司估值要模糊太多，常常是见仁见智。互联网公司当前遇到的最大问题是，当市场环境发生剧烈改变后，它们到底值多少钱，估值应该怎么给，市场参与者还没有形成共识，也没有一个可参考的标准。在中泰资管姜诚看来，隐藏在背后的原因是“价值锚”的缺位。尽管退市阴霾未散，原有估值逻辑也有可能被推倒重来，但是面对股价动辄腰斩、估值进入历史较低区间的互联网公司，抄底资金可谓是前赴后继。02、国内资金买「平台」高毅资产首席投资官邓晓峰在今年初与投资者线上交流时分享了自己对互联网行业的看法。在他看来，互联网行业类似2012、2013年时的白酒行业。当时受“八项规定”和“塑化剂”事件的影响，白酒股持续调整，直到2016年才开始复苏，但这并不妨碍这个行业长期的高回报，因为白酒本身是一门好生意。互联网的商业模式也非常优秀，当行业稳定之后，很容易为股东创造可观的回报。他认为，外部因素对中概股互联网公司影响达到最大值的时候，大概率是行业在资本市场表现最差的时候。他断言，尽管互联网行业上行的空间和时间尚不确定，但今年互联网至少是一个下行风险很小的行业。在3月初这轮恐慌性下跌中，邓晓峰有没有抄底中概股不得而知，但他对于互联网行业的乐观预期无疑是具有代表性的。“中国巴菲特”段永平也是中概股的忠实信徒，曾在互联网泡沫中逆势抄底网易一战成名，如今除了“风投”拼多多之外，外界最为津津乐道的还是他抄底腾讯。2018年，腾讯因游戏版号停发等问题股价暴跌，短短几个月跌幅超40%，段永平趁机上车。去年，腾讯被批为“精神鸦片”，股价再次大跌近40%。段永平8月4日在雪球（ID：大道无形我有型）上称买了腾讯，再跌继续买，二度抄底。今年2月28日，有雪球粉丝调侃，腾讯又到了大道底。段永平回复称，“低过我上次买的价钱了，那明天再买点”。此后，他还多次表达了对腾讯的看好。3月8日，他在回复网友提问时表示，“计划没（每）掉10%加一次仓”。3月14日，他表示再过一两个礼拜，应该还有些苹果的put到期，到时可以考虑再买点；次日上午，他又声称“明天准备拿伯克希尔B股换点腾讯，不等了”。不过，这些话可能更像开玩笑。他曾表示，腾讯对他的吸引力还没到让他卖掉任何别的股票去换的地步，再跌几次说不定就要认真想想了。过去几年，腾讯因游戏业务广受诟病。作为游戏学习机“小霸王”的缔造者，段永平对游戏有着不同的看法。他曾经解释过买腾讯的理由。在他看来，游戏最根本的东西是消费时间并获得快乐，而网络游戏是大多数人获取简单快乐最具有性价比的办法。游戏和其他消费品没有任何差别，并不存在良知的问题。如果以10年计，拿着茅台和腾讯应该比拿着现金好。即使是高调抄底腾讯的段永平，持有腾讯的比重还很低。相比之下，国内一些公募产品才是重仓持有或是逆势抄底中概股的中坚力量。比如，国投瑞银中国价值发现一直重仓持有腾讯控股和阿里巴巴，去年四季度还加仓了后者，目前分别为第一和第二重仓。基金经理汤海波表示，看好过去 一年中受持续政策打压，目前估值处于历史低位的平台型互联网公司。他认为这些行业仍有充足的发展空间，并相信中国互联网龙头公司在全球范围内的竞争优势。上投摩根亚太优势基金经理张军也表示，中概股的远期市盈率约为13倍，而美国股市则超过20倍。中国股票并不昂贵。即使市盈率只是停留在目前水平，预期的经济扩张应该会推动公司收益在未来几年大幅上升。创金合信港股互联网基金经理胡尧盛则从业绩角度提出了看好互联网行业的逻辑。他在四季报中表示，核心互联网公司收入端依然维持较高增速，虽然利润端不理想，但并非公司经营出了问题，基本面并没有出现风险。而当前股价下跌反应有些过度。他四季度真金白银为自己的认知“充值”，加仓了美团、腾讯控股、阿里巴巴、京东集团、百度集团等股票。统计公募基金重仓股后发现，互联网龙头、平台型公司仍是国内资金布局首选，即使是投资范围更广的QDII基金也是如此。具体来看，腾讯、美团、阿里、京东等龙头股成为很多基金必配重仓股。国内投资者最懂中国，也最懂中国的公司，互联网公司的公允价值可能无法判断，但这些公司中不少是好公司，这于这一点很多人深信不疑。他们越跌越买，拉长周期看，输的或许只是时间。更何况，当安全边际已经跌得足够明显，哪怕是异国他乡的海外投资者，也在抄底中概股这件事情上逐渐有了共识。03、国外机构爱玩车97岁的芒格对中国经济、中概股的看好从来不掩饰。根据不久前披露的13F文件显示，截至2021年12月底，查理·芒格旗下公司DailyJournalCorp（每日期刊）通过美国存托凭证(ADR)累积持有阿里巴巴602060股，持有市值约0.72亿美元，占比约28%，为公司第三大持仓。值得一提的是，与去年三季度相比，四季度每日期刊买入阿里巴巴的股票数量接近翻倍，如此大手笔的加仓，可见芒格对阿里巴巴是真爱，对中国经济、互联网的信心并非嘴上说说而已。去年一季度，阿里股价大跌，芒格首次买入了165320股；二季度阿里股价波动较小，他并没有急于加仓，只是维持之前的持仓不变；三季度阿里单季下跌近35%，芒格再次出手，买入136740股，持股总数也上升至30万股；四季度阿里又下跌了近20%，他这次选择了重拳出击，一口气买了30万股。尽管越跌越买，持仓成本不断摊薄，但过早的抄底，还是让芒格在这笔投资上有些被动。以至于在近期召开的每日期刊股东大会上，他对中概股、对阿里巴巴的看法之类的问题被股东们反复提到。芒格在回答股东提问时表示，之所以投资中国公司，是因为能够买到更多的价值。一些中国公司不仅价格便宜，而且竞争力更强。与美国的投资机会相比，中国的投资机会更好，而且能以更便宜的价格买入，获得更高的公司价值。他不觉得阿里巴巴的股权结构是一项特别大的风险，只是觉得其护城河没有苹果和Alphabet那么深。实际上，在抄底中概股的道路上，芒格并不孤单。国内投资者比较熟悉的先锋领航集团，去年四季度买入了74只中概股，而且均为新进持仓，持有市值排名靠前的个股包括百度、蔚来、小鹏汽车、拼多多、理想汽车等；但是，先锋集团没有买阿里巴巴、京东这些老牌零售电商龙头，而是选择了后起之秀拼多多。贝莱德四季度对中概股有增有减，对63只中概股进行了增持，对66只中概股进行了减持或清仓，另外新进买入红黄蓝、叮咚买菜等4只中概股。其中，蔚来、拼多多、理想汽车、阿里巴巴等个股均获得增持，百度、百胜中国、小鹏汽车虽被小幅减持。有意思的是，道富银行、摩根大通、纽约梅隆银行、挪威中央银行、高盛集团等知名外资机构，对中国“造车新势力”表现出了浓厚的兴趣，四季度纷纷增持了相关公司，其中蔚来受关注度最高，获得149家机构增持，189家机构新买入。若从持股机构数来看，阿里巴巴中驻扎的外资数量最多，达1287家，较三季度小幅下降；另外，百胜中国、京东、百度、蔚来持股机构数均超过500家。当然，对于中概股，尤其是处于反垄断风口浪尖的中国互联网公司，外资机构之间是有分歧的。但对于一些好公司，尤其是中国市场上快速成长的优质公司，他们从来不吝啬手里的子弹，比如造车新势力、以做下沉市场起家的拼多多。04、尾声段永平曾被记者问道，当年网易跌得仅剩0.8美元，你哪来的勇气敢买入？他反问道，原本值10块钱的东西，现在有人哭着喊着要以1块钱的价格卖给你，这还需要什么勇气吗？当价格显著低于企业价值时，抄底当然不需要勇气和胆识，但需要子弹。很多时候投资会陷入“一看就会，一学就废”的困境，原因既关乎能力，又在于资金的不自由。大多数人是不具备判断一家公司价值的能力的，而股价见底与价值发现通常不会同时到来。毕竟，段永平只有一个，但倒在了黎明前黑暗中的人，却有许多。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1534,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9010317217,"gmtCreate":1648258116774,"gmtModify":1676534322778,"author":{"id":"3572683426659077","authorId":"3572683426659077","name":"haiwei183","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1cae291bddff5a30eeb96060074d8531","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3572683426659077","authorIdStr":"3572683426659077"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"look","listText":"look","text":"look","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9010317217","repostId":"1175213400","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2578,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9056450267,"gmtCreate":1655077840159,"gmtModify":1676535555831,"author":{"id":"3572683426659077","authorId":"3572683426659077","name":"haiwei183","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1cae291bddff5a30eeb96060074d8531","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3572683426659077","authorIdStr":"3572683426659077"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"look","listText":"look","text":"look","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9056450267","repostId":"2243743215","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2243743215","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1655075294,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2243743215?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-06-13 07:08","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Foreign Media Headlines | Highlights! The Federal Reserve's rate hike storm continues","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2243743215","media":"环球市场播报","summary":"鲍威尔将在美联储为期两天的会议后向媒体作简报。Astra Space火箭发射任务失败 NASA气象卫星丢失周日，美国火箭公司Astra Space将小型天气监测NASA卫星送入轨道的任务失败了。失败发生在Astra火箭3.3从佛罗里达州卡纳维拉尔角太空部队发射台成功发射大约10分钟后。美国5月份消费者价格同比涨幅意外加速至8.6%，创40年新高，可能会推动美联储延长激进的加息周期。埃里安再次批评美联储在通胀方面“落后”，并表示他预计在本周的利率会议上加息50个基点。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body><b>The main headlines that global financial media focused on last night and this morning were:</b></p><p><b>1. The main event! The Federal Reserve will hold a rate hike this week, but Powell's speech may be particularly important.</b><b>2. Summers urged the Federal Reserve to face up to the severity of inflation and stated that the risk of a recession is imminent.</b><b>3. Oil prices continue to soar, prompting the UK to order a review of the fuel market.</b><b>4、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ASTR\">Astra Space</a>Rocket launch mission fails, NASA weather satellite lost</b><b>5. Dutch regulators stated<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>Other payment methods will be available in the dating app</b><b>6. Allianz's chief economist says the Fed's actions are \"lagging behind,\" and US inflation could reach 9%.</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3c2adadd4cdfbf839dcfc63699815f5d\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"481\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>The highlight! The Federal Reserve will hold a rate hike this week, but Powell's speech may be particularly important.</b></p><p>The key events of the coming week may all boil down to Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's speech at 2:30 p.m. Eastern Time on Wednesday.</p><p>Powell will brief the media after the Federal Reserve's two-day meeting. The Federal Reserve is widely expected to raise the target range for the federal funds rate by 0.5 percentage points, but the hot inflation data in May has raised market concerns about whether policymakers will be more aggressive or predict a faster pace of rate hike in the future.</p><p>Stocks and bonds have been volatile as investors worry that inflation may not peak and that rate hike could lead to a recession.</p><p>The stock market plunged after the May consumer price index was much higher than expected on Friday. This week, the S&P 500 index fell 5.1%. The index closed at 3,900 points on Friday, down 2.9%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9c979b143c8dcaab8d1f208af870ba0a\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"406\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Summers urged the Federal Reserve to face up to the severity of inflation and stated that the risk of a recession is imminent.</b></p><p>Former U.S. Treasury Secretary Summers urged the Federal Reserve to recognize the severity of inflation, which had accelerated to its highest level in 40 years when policymakers met this week, and the risk of a recession was imminent.</p><p>\"When inflation is as high as it is now and unemployment is as low as it is now, there is almost always a recession within two years,\" he said on CN's \"State of the Union\" program on Sunday. Regarding inflation, \"The Federal Reserve's forecasts are often overly optimistic, and I hope they fully realize the seriousness of the problem.\"</p><p>Summers pointed to the risk of a recession next year, but said it was \"more likely\" to happen in the next two years.</p><p>Summers, who has been predicting high inflation since last year, said the path of inflation depends on the Russia-Ukraine conflict and its impact on oil prices. U.S. consumer prices rose 8.6% year-on-year in May, indicating that price pressures are becoming deeply ingrained in the economy.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/32a35993591bceb2e3ecfd4a9b8961ac\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"547\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Oil prices continue to soar, prompting the UK to order a review of the fuel market.</b></p><p>The UK government has asked competition regulators to review the retail fuel market to see if tariff cuts have been passed on to consumers as gas station prices reach unprecedented highs.</p><p>British Business Secretary Quartern said on Sunday that an investigation will find out why fuel prices always rise rapidly but fall slowly.</p><p>In March, Britain announced a £5 billion ($6.2 billion) package to reduce fuel duty by 5 pence per liter for a year, in an effort to ease the burden on drivers amid increasingly severe austerity in the cost of living for families.</p><p>However, fuel prices in the UK continued to rise, with the average cost of refueling a family car exceeding £100 for the first time last week. The British people are frustrated that the £5bn package has not been passed on to fuel prices.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e7ef7448a731908a5f6838b48b9973cb\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"478\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Astra Space rocket launch mission fails, NASA weather satellite lost</b></p><p>On Sunday, American rocket company Astra Space's mission to send a small weather monitoring NASA satellite into orbit failed. It is understood that the second-stage booster engine was shut down early in space.</p><p>The failure occurred approximately 10 minutes after the Astra 3.3 rocket successfully launched from the Space Force launch pad at Cape Canaveral, Florida.</p><p>“We conducted a nominal first-stage flight. However, the engines of the higher stage did shut down prematurely, and we did not send the payload into orbit,” Astra stated.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3d797560c158b6042e149885c94c1dd3\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"479\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Dutch regulators say Apple will offer alternative payment methods in dating apps.</b></p><p>Apple will allow different payment methods in its Dutch dating app, the Dutch antitrust regulator said Saturday, ending a dispute that led to the company being fined 50 million euros ($52.58 million).</p><p>In a statement, the Dutch Authority for Consumers and Markets (AMC) said that with this concession, Apple will meet the requirements set by regulators under EU and Dutch competition rules.</p><p>Apple has long mandated the use of its in-app payment system, which charges commissions of up to 30%, which some developers, such as Tinder owner Match Group Inc., consider too high.</p><p>“In the digital economy, powerful companies have a special responsibility to keep markets fair and open. Apple has shirked this responsibility and abused its dominant position as a dating app provider,” said Martijn Snoep, chairman of the ACM board of directors.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/36b4560aea1e2ff209bde08e7fb0a0f3\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"479\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Allianz's chief economist says the Fed's actions are \"lagging behind,\" and US inflation could reach 9%.</b></p><p>Mohamed El-Erian, chief economist at Allianz Group, believes that U.S. inflation is likely to rise further, and recession risks are \"currently tilting in a negative direction.\"</p><p>“I think you have to be very humble about what we know about the inflation process,” El-Erian said on Sunday. “And I’m worried things will get worse. At this rate, we’re likely to reach 9%.”</p><p>U.S. consumer prices unexpectedly accelerated to 8.6% year-on-year in May, a 40-year high, which may prompt the Federal Reserve to extend its aggressive rate hike cycle.</p><p>Erian again criticized the Federal Reserve for \"lagging behind\" on inflation and said he expects a 50 basis point rate hike at this week's interest rate meeting.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"sina_symbol","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Foreign Media Headlines | Highlights! The Federal Reserve's rate hike storm continues</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nForeign Media Headlines | Highlights! The Federal Reserve's rate hike storm continues\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">环球市场播报</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-06-13 07:08</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><b>The main headlines that global financial media focused on last night and this morning were:</b></p><p><b>1. The main event! The Federal Reserve will hold a rate hike this week, but Powell's speech may be particularly important.</b><b>2. Summers urged the Federal Reserve to face up to the severity of inflation and stated that the risk of a recession is imminent.</b><b>3. Oil prices continue to soar, prompting the UK to order a review of the fuel market.</b><b>4、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ASTR\">Astra Space</a>Rocket launch mission fails, NASA weather satellite lost</b><b>5. Dutch regulators stated<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>Other payment methods will be available in the dating app</b><b>6. Allianz's chief economist says the Fed's actions are \"lagging behind,\" and US inflation could reach 9%.</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3c2adadd4cdfbf839dcfc63699815f5d\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"481\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>The highlight! The Federal Reserve will hold a rate hike this week, but Powell's speech may be particularly important.</b></p><p>The key events of the coming week may all boil down to Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's speech at 2:30 p.m. Eastern Time on Wednesday.</p><p>Powell will brief the media after the Federal Reserve's two-day meeting. The Federal Reserve is widely expected to raise the target range for the federal funds rate by 0.5 percentage points, but the hot inflation data in May has raised market concerns about whether policymakers will be more aggressive or predict a faster pace of rate hike in the future.</p><p>Stocks and bonds have been volatile as investors worry that inflation may not peak and that rate hike could lead to a recession.</p><p>The stock market plunged after the May consumer price index was much higher than expected on Friday. This week, the S&P 500 index fell 5.1%. The index closed at 3,900 points on Friday, down 2.9%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9c979b143c8dcaab8d1f208af870ba0a\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"406\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Summers urged the Federal Reserve to face up to the severity of inflation and stated that the risk of a recession is imminent.</b></p><p>Former U.S. Treasury Secretary Summers urged the Federal Reserve to recognize the severity of inflation, which had accelerated to its highest level in 40 years when policymakers met this week, and the risk of a recession was imminent.</p><p>\"When inflation is as high as it is now and unemployment is as low as it is now, there is almost always a recession within two years,\" he said on CN's \"State of the Union\" program on Sunday. Regarding inflation, \"The Federal Reserve's forecasts are often overly optimistic, and I hope they fully realize the seriousness of the problem.\"</p><p>Summers pointed to the risk of a recession next year, but said it was \"more likely\" to happen in the next two years.</p><p>Summers, who has been predicting high inflation since last year, said the path of inflation depends on the Russia-Ukraine conflict and its impact on oil prices. U.S. consumer prices rose 8.6% year-on-year in May, indicating that price pressures are becoming deeply ingrained in the economy.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/32a35993591bceb2e3ecfd4a9b8961ac\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"547\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Oil prices continue to soar, prompting the UK to order a review of the fuel market.</b></p><p>The UK government has asked competition regulators to review the retail fuel market to see if tariff cuts have been passed on to consumers as gas station prices reach unprecedented highs.</p><p>British Business Secretary Quartern said on Sunday that an investigation will find out why fuel prices always rise rapidly but fall slowly.</p><p>In March, Britain announced a £5 billion ($6.2 billion) package to reduce fuel duty by 5 pence per liter for a year, in an effort to ease the burden on drivers amid increasingly severe austerity in the cost of living for families.</p><p>However, fuel prices in the UK continued to rise, with the average cost of refueling a family car exceeding £100 for the first time last week. The British people are frustrated that the £5bn package has not been passed on to fuel prices.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e7ef7448a731908a5f6838b48b9973cb\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"478\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Astra Space rocket launch mission fails, NASA weather satellite lost</b></p><p>On Sunday, American rocket company Astra Space's mission to send a small weather monitoring NASA satellite into orbit failed. It is understood that the second-stage booster engine was shut down early in space.</p><p>The failure occurred approximately 10 minutes after the Astra 3.3 rocket successfully launched from the Space Force launch pad at Cape Canaveral, Florida.</p><p>“We conducted a nominal first-stage flight. However, the engines of the higher stage did shut down prematurely, and we did not send the payload into orbit,” Astra stated.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3d797560c158b6042e149885c94c1dd3\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"479\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Dutch regulators say Apple will offer alternative payment methods in dating apps.</b></p><p>Apple will allow different payment methods in its Dutch dating app, the Dutch antitrust regulator said Saturday, ending a dispute that led to the company being fined 50 million euros ($52.58 million).</p><p>In a statement, the Dutch Authority for Consumers and Markets (AMC) said that with this concession, Apple will meet the requirements set by regulators under EU and Dutch competition rules.</p><p>Apple has long mandated the use of its in-app payment system, which charges commissions of up to 30%, which some developers, such as Tinder owner Match Group Inc., consider too high.</p><p>“In the digital economy, powerful companies have a special responsibility to keep markets fair and open. Apple has shirked this responsibility and abused its dominant position as a dating app provider,” said Martijn Snoep, chairman of the ACM board of directors.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/36b4560aea1e2ff209bde08e7fb0a0f3\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"479\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Allianz's chief economist says the Fed's actions are \"lagging behind,\" and US inflation could reach 9%.</b></p><p>Mohamed El-Erian, chief economist at Allianz Group, believes that U.S. inflation is likely to rise further, and recession risks are \"currently tilting in a negative direction.\"</p><p>“I think you have to be very humble about what we know about the inflation process,” El-Erian said on Sunday. “And I’m worried things will get worse. At this rate, we’re likely to reach 9%.”</p><p>U.S. consumer prices unexpectedly accelerated to 8.6% year-on-year in May, a 40-year high, which may prompt the Federal Reserve to extend its aggressive rate hike cycle.</p><p>Erian again criticized the Federal Reserve for \"lagging behind\" on inflation and said he expects a 50 basis point rate hike at this week's interest rate meeting.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://cj.sina.cn/article/normal_detail?url=https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2022-06-13/doc-imizmscu6490264.shtml\">环球市场播报</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3c2adadd4cdfbf839dcfc63699815f5d","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF博时","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","BK4504":"桥水持仓","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓",".DJI":"道琼斯","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","BK4564":"太空概念","BK4581":"高盛持仓","SPY":"标普500ETF","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","BK4187":"航天航空与国防","OEX":"标普100","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://cj.sina.cn/article/normal_detail?url=https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2022-06-13/doc-imizmscu6490264.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2243743215","content_text":"全球财经媒体昨夜今晨共同关注的头条新闻主要有：1、重头戏！美联储将在本周加息 但鲍威尔讲话可能尤为重要 2、萨默斯敦促美联储正视通胀严重性 并称衰退风险近在眼前3、油价持续飙升 英国下令对燃料市场进行审查4、Astra Space火箭发射任务失败 NASA气象卫星丢失5、荷兰监管机构称苹果将在约会应用中提供其他支付方式6、安联首席经济学家称美联储行动“落后” 美国通胀率可能达到9%重头戏！美联储将在本周加息 但鲍威尔讲话可能尤为重要未来一周重要事件可能都归结为美联储主席杰罗姆鲍威尔在美国东部时间周三下午2：30发表的讲话。鲍威尔将在美联储为期两天的会议后向媒体作简报。外界普遍预计美联储将把联邦基金目标利率区间上调0.5个百分点，但5月份炙手可热的通胀数据令市场担心决策者是否会更加激进或预测未来加息步伐会更快。由于投资者担心通胀可能不会见顶，以及加息可能导致经济衰退，股票和债券一直波动。周五的5月消费者价格指数远高于预期后，股市暴跌。本周，标普500指数下跌 5.1%。该指数周五收于3900点，下跌 2.9%。萨默斯敦促美联储正视通胀严重性 并称衰退风险近在眼前美国前财政部长萨默斯敦促美联储意识到通胀的严重性，在政策制定者本周开会时，通胀已经加速至40年来的最高水平，经济衰退的风险即将来临。他周日在美国有线电视新闻网的“国情咨文”节目中说：“当通货膨胀像现在这样高而失业率像现在这样低时，几乎总是在两年内出现衰退。” 谈到通胀，“美联储的预测往往过于乐观，我希望他们能充分意识到问题的严重性。”萨默斯指出明年可能出现衰退的风险，不过他表示，未来两年内“更有可能”发生。自去年以来一直在预测高通胀的萨默斯表示，通胀的路径取决于俄乌冲突及其对油价的影响。美国5月份消费者价格同比上涨 8.6%，这表明价格压力在经济中变得根深蒂固。油价持续飙升 英国下令对燃料市场进行审查英国政府已要求竞争监管机构审查零售燃料市场，以了解随着加油站价格达到前所未有的高位，是否已将关税削减转嫁给消费者。英国商务部长夸滕周日表示，调查将找出为什么燃料价格总是快速上涨但缓慢下降的原因。英国在3月份以50亿英镑（合62亿美元）的一揽子计划将燃油税每升降低5便士，为期一年，以减轻家庭生活成本紧缩日益严重的情况下驾驶者的负担。然而，英国燃油价格继续上涨，上周家用汽车的平均加油成本首次超过100磅。英国人民对50亿英镑的一揽子计划未被传递到燃油价格感到沮丧。Astra Space火箭发射任务失败 NASA气象卫星丢失周日，美国火箭公司Astra Space将小型天气监测NASA卫星送入轨道的任务失败了。据悉，第二级助推发动机在太空早期提前关闭。失败发生在Astra火箭3.3从佛罗里达州卡纳维拉尔角太空部队发射台成功发射大约10分钟后。“我们进行了名义上的第一级飞行。但是，更高一级的发动机确实提前关闭，我们没有将有效载荷送入轨道，”Astra公司表示。荷兰监管机构称苹果将在约会应用中提供其他支付方式荷兰反垄断监管机构周六表示，苹果公司将允许在荷兰约会应用程序中使用不同的支付方式，结束导致该公司被罚款 5000 万欧元（5258 万美元）的纠纷。荷兰消费者和市场管理局 （AMC） 在一份声明中表示：通过这一让步，苹果将满足监管机构根据欧盟和荷兰竞争规则制定的要求。苹果公司长期以来一直强制使用其应用内支付系统，该系统收取高达30%的佣金，Tinder所有者 Match Group Inc 等一些开发商认为这太高了。“在数字经济中，强大的公司负有保持市场公平和开放的特殊责任。苹果回避了这一责任，并滥用了其在约会应用程序提供商方面的主导地位，”ACM董事会主席 Martijn Snoep 表示。安联首席经济学家称美联储行动“落后” 美国通胀率可能达到9%安联集团首席经济学家穆罕默德-埃尔-埃里安（Mohamed El-Erian）认为，美国的通胀率可能会进一步上升，而衰退风险“目前正以负面的方式倾斜”。“我认为你必须对我们对通胀过程的了解保持非常谦虚，”El-Erian 周日表示。“而且我担心情况还会变得更糟。按照这个速度，我们很可能会达到9%。”美国5月份消费者价格同比涨幅意外加速至8.6%，创40年新高，可能会推动美联储延长激进的加息周期。埃里安再次批评美联储在通胀方面“落后”，并表示他预计在本周的利率会议上加息50个基点。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.6,"513500":0.6,"DJX":0.6,"TQQQ":0.6,"PSQ":0.6,"OEX":0.6,"SDS":0.6,"ASTR":1,"QLD":0.6,".DJI":1,"DXD":0.6,"SPY":1,"SSO":0.6,"SH":0.6,"DOG":0.6,"OEF":0.6,"QQQ":0.6,"SQQQ":0.6,"SDOW":0.6,"UPRO":0.6,"UDOW":0.6,"NQmain":0.6,"ESmain":0.6,"MNQmain":0.6,".SPX":0.6,"SPXU":0.6,"QID":0.6,"DDM":0.6,"IVV":0.6,".IXIC":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1549,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":254434989961504,"gmtCreate":1703154573703,"gmtModify":1703154578000,"author":{"id":"3572683426659077","authorId":"3572683426659077","name":"haiwei183","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1cae291bddff5a30eeb96060074d8531","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3572683426659077","authorIdStr":"3572683426659077"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Good game join&nbsp; join","listText":"Good game join&nbsp; join","text":"Good game join join","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":1,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/254434989961504","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2022,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9901388779,"gmtCreate":1659139738791,"gmtModify":1676536262480,"author":{"id":"3572683426659077","authorId":"3572683426659077","name":"haiwei183","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1cae291bddff5a30eeb96060074d8531","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3572683426659077","authorIdStr":"3572683426659077"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"look","listText":"look","text":"look","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9901388779","repostId":"1182404599","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1182404599","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1659087664,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1182404599?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-07-29 17:41","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"How will US and Hong Kong stocks trade in Q3? Finding the intersection of rebound logic","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1182404599","media":"学恒的海外观察","summary":"第三季度或是美股和港股2022年重要的投资时间窗口美股方面，联储尚处于加息通道，且宏观层面有滞胀预期，但我们认为美股在第三季度会有一轮反弹。这主要得益于三季度的信息真空期：1）宏观层面，CPI同比难创","content":"<p><html><head></head><body><b>The third quarter may be an important investment window for US and Hong Kong stocks in 2022.</b></p><p>In the US stock market, the Federal Reserve is still in the rate hike channel, and there are expectations of stagflation at the macro level, but we believe that US stocks will rebound in the third quarter. This is mainly due to the information vacuum period in the third quarter: 1) At the macro level, the CPI is unlikely to reach a new high year-on-year. July and August are just a matter of how much it will decline. GDP is a lagging indicator of the market and has a limited impact on future stock price trends. 2) At the micro level, there is no catalyst for downward revision of corporate earnings during the interim report season; 3) On the monetary front, the September FOMC meeting is still some time away, and the Fed's attitude has marginally shifted to dovish. On the market, after the negative factors quickly cleared, US stocks continued to rise day by day, reflecting ample bullish power among US stock investors.</p><p>In Hong Kong stocks, the Hang Seng Index fell from July last year to March this year, maintaining a low-level fluctuation pattern for a quarter, with sufficient rebound momentum. From a fundamental perspective, we believe that China's macroeconomy bottomed out in the second quarter, and the downward trend in individual stock earnings is expected to end during the interim report season. Two scenarios may occur in the second half of this year: 1) If there is a rebound in the third quarter, we advise investors to be cautious in the fourth quarter; 2) The market fluctuated at low levels in the third quarter and rebounded in the fourth quarter. In either case, we recommend that investors position themselves in the third quarter to prepare for a rebound.</p><p><b>US Stocks: Choose the Best Between Valuation Recovery Potential and Business Model</b></p><p>We provide investors with four rationales for the rebound: 1) The earnings forecast has not been lowered, but the valuation repair logic brought about by the oversold stock price; 2) Find a business model that can combat stagflation; 3) Leverage high growth momentum to overcome the economic recession; 4) The forced demand from institutional investors to add to their positions due to the previous oversold price. Our recommended industries are:</p><p>1. Top Recommendation<b>Software industry SaaS</b>Company: There is ample room for valuation recovery; Business models are quite rigid in the early stages of an economic recession; It belongs to an emerging industry with high growth rate; The previous decline was significant, and investors have a need to add to their positions. It conforms to 4/4 of the rebound logic, and is the top recommendation.</p><p>2. Secondary push<b>new energy vehicle</b>Manufacturers: There is ample room for valuation recovery; Located at the sweet spot of the penetration curve, the growth rate is expected to be high; The consumer discretionary sector to which it belongs had previously experienced a significant decline, and investors had a need to replenish their positions. It conforms to the 3/4 rebound logic; second recommendation.</p><p>3.<b>semiconductor</b>Sector: There is room for valuation recovery; It has good cost transmission capabilities and is resistant to inflation; high growth rate; Previously oversold. It meets the 4/4 rebound logic, but there is a risk of high performance at the beginning and low at the end. Recommended.</p><p><b>Hong Kong stocks: Maximize valuation repair and rising risk appetite</b></p><p>We provide investors with two main rebound logics: 1) The valuation repair logic resulting from a small/no reduction in earnings forecasts, but a significant decline; 2) The logic behind rising risk appetite and benefiting growth stocks. And two secondary logics: 1) Regarding the company's previous share buybacks as management's endorsement of the fundamentals; 2) Find arbitrage opportunities in companies with high premiums in H-shares. Our recommended industries are:</p><p>1.<b>Healthcare</b>The next several sub-sections, especially<b>lol</b>and<b>Biological drugs</b>。 They have ample room for valuation recovery and high expected growth rates, and are expected to benefit from rising risk appetite. It conforms to 2/2 of the main logic points and is the top recommendation.</p><p>2.<b>Information technology</b>Down<b>semiconductor</b>Sector. They also have good room for valuation recovery and high earnings growth expectations, but we must be wary of the risk of high earnings at the beginning and low earnings at the end. It meets 2/2 of the main logic points, but there is 1 risk, so it is recommended secondarily.</p><p>3. Also recommended<b>Internet companies</b>as well as<b>Hang Seng Technology Index</b>。</p><p><b>Risk Warning:</b>The uncertainty surrounding the development of the pandemic; The risk that the company's performance falls short of expectations; International political and economic emergencies; The Federal Reserve's unexpected monetary policy style.</p><p><b>US Stocks: Choose the Best Between Valuation Recovery Potential and Business Model</b></p><p><b>Overall Outlook for Trading Logic in US Stocks in the Third Quarter</b></p><p>We believe the third quarter will be an important window of opportunity for investing in US stocks this year. In the third quarter, we saw three information vacuums:</p><p>1. The vacuum period of macroeconomic data. Judging from high-frequency data such as commodities, the CPI in July and August is unlikely to surpass the 9.1% year-on-year increase in June, simply because of the difference in the magnitude of the decline. In terms of GDP, the US GDP fell by 0.9% year-on-year in the second quarter. However, GDP is generally an indicator that lags behind the market, and the macro recession expectation pattern has been established (the 10-2 year US Treasury yields inversion has stabilized). Overall, it does not have an impact on the market trend.</p><p>2. A vacuum period in corporate profitability. Since the start of the interim report season, the half-year results of US-listed companies have generally met expectations. Although economic recession expectations are gradually taking shape at the macro level, there is still a lack of catalysts for downward revisions to corporate earnings at the micro level, and we need to wait further for corporate performance in the third quarter.</p><p>3. A vacuum period in monetary policy. The 75 basis point reduction in rate hike in July has been announced, and the market expects the pace of rate hike to slow down in September. In line with market expectations, the speeches by Federal Reserve officials and the FOMC statement showed a significant marginal dovish turn. This trend is unlikely to reverse in the short term. Meanwhile, there are still two months until the next official announcement.</p><p>Looking at the market, we realize that the bulls in the US market are still very strong – negative factors are quickly cleared in the market, and then the stock market can return to a state of daily upward movement. Therefore, we believe that the third quarter of this year is an important window of opportunity for US stock investment, and investors are expected to profit from the rebound.</p><p><b>Investment logic and top recommended sectors for the US stock market rebound</b></p><p>In this rebound strategy, we employ four sets of logic:</p><p>1.<b>Valuation repair logic</b>If a company's earnings forecast is raised (or not lowered) but its stock price falls, it enjoys the opportunity to prioritize valuation repair during a rebound.</p><p>2.<b>Anti-stagflation business model</b>Given the expectation of stagflation at the macro level, companies whose business models can naturally withstand economic recession or high inflation will be favored by investors during a rebound.</p><p>3.<b>Growth stock logic</b>We will adopt an offensive approach and break through the limitations of the economic recession with high growth momentum;</p><p>4.<b>Oversold logic</b>The price has fallen significantly in the early stages, but it may rise significantly later. For institutional investors, sectors with significant declines may have already exceeded the pre-set lower limit of their allocation ratio, and they will have to add to their positions in these oversold sectors.</p><p>Here is a summary of the recommended industries:</p><p>1. Top Recommendation<b>Software industry SaaS</b>Company. This aligns with logic one, indicating significant room for valuation recovery; This aligns with logic two: prepayment revenue is accrued over time, and the business model is highly resilient to short-term recessions; Emerging industries with high growth potential conform to logic three; This aligns with logic four: the previous decline was significant, and investors have a need to add to their positions. SaaS companies in the software industry are at the intersection of four rebound logics, and this is the top recommendation.</p><p>2. Secondly, push<b>New energy vehicles in automobiles</b>。 This aligns with logic one, indicating significant room for valuation recovery; Consistent with logic three, it is located at the sweet spot of the penetration curve, with a high growth rate expected and is expected to weather the cycle; This aligns with logic four: the previous decline was significant, indicating a need to replenish positions. Three out of four logical points are recommended.</p><p>3.<b>semiconductor industry</b>It is also one of our key recommendations. The main opportunities lie in the new energy and cloud computing sectors, with priority given to corporate products. This aligns with logic one, indicating significant room for valuation recovery; This aligns with logic two: the competitive landscape is stable, and the company has strong bargaining power and cost transmission capabilities. This aligns with logic three, indicating a high growth rate expectation; This conforms to logic four, indicating a need to replenish positions. The risk lies in the high sales volume of servers and computers in the early stages, which could lead to overdraft demand. We must be wary of high performance at the beginning and low performance at the end. Semiconductors account for all four rebound logics, but there is one risk, which is recommended.</p><p>4. In addition, we recommend that investors consider the hotel and entertainment sectors driven by the recovery of the epidemic, and the pharmaceutical CXO sector, which has great potential for valuation recovery.</p><p><b>Logic 1: Valuation Repair Logic</b></p><p>The first logic for looking for a rebound is valuation repair. Specifically, at the execution level, we believe that stocks whose earnings forecasts have not been revised downward, but whose stock prices have fallen, will have room for valuation recovery during the rebound, demonstrating greater elasticity. For earnings forecasts, we use the adjustment range of the listed company's 2023 Bloomberg consensus profit forecast (if the company is not profitable, we use the revenue adjustment range instead). Stock price performance: We use the company's stock price changes from the beginning of the year to the present.</p><p>We applied a simple +13% treatment to the stock price decline (13% is the average decline of our sample stocks) to offset the stock price pressure that is fair to all stocks from the liquidity tightening. We call the processed price fluctuations \"relative price fluctuations\". If a company's earnings adjustment minus the relative change in stock price is greater than 0%, it indicates that the stock has room for valuation repair. That is, the following formula:</p><p>Valuation recovery potential = Earnings adjustment range - Relative change</p><p>It should be added that, in addition to the quantitative limitation of valuation recovery potential, there is another qualitative requirement for valuation recovery—it must fall in the early stages, not rise. A typical example that is not suitable for valuation repair logic is the energy sector. Since the beginning of the year, the energy sector's earnings revisions have increased more than its stock price gains. However, the stock price is generally rising rather than falling, so a \"rebound\" is out of the question.</p><p>Data shows that sectors with significant room for valuation recovery include:</p><p>1.<b>Non-Daily Consumer Goods (Consumer Discretionary) – Automotive Segment</b>There is considerable room for valuation recovery. However, upon closer examination, the valuation recovery potential of this sector is basically concentrated in new energy vehicle manufacturers represented by Tesla (TSLA US).</p><p>2.<b>Information Technology – Semiconductor</b>The company's earnings for the first half of this year were generally revised upward, but its stock price fell. Sub-sectors with significant room for valuation recovery include automotive semiconductor manufacturers (such as ON Semiconductor ON US) and GPU manufacturers with cloud concepts (such as NVIDIA NVDA US and AMD US).</p><p>3.<b>Information Technology - Software</b>The valuation recovery potential is quite divergent, but there are some stocks with leading valuation recovery potential, which are generally SaaS companies.</p><p>4.<b>Healthcare - Life Sciences Tools & Services (CXO)</b>There is generally some room for valuation recovery. This includes some companies whose earnings have been revised upwards but whose stock prices have fallen sharply.</p><p>5.<b>Information Technology -</b>The changes in earnings expectations were relatively stable, but the decline was significant. The upcoming rebound is expected to attract the attention of defensive investors.</p><p>Sectors with significant valuation recovery potential that we don't highly recommend:</p><p>1.<b>Finance - Commercial Banking</b>There is also considerable room for valuation recovery, mainly due to the significant upward revision of bank performance in the previous period, which has certain investment value. However, banks have large market capitalizations and are not our first choice when pursuing a rebound.</p><p>2.<b>energy</b>The valuation recovery potential is relatively high. However, energy prices were on an upward trend in the first half of the year, making a \"rebound\" out of the question, and we do not recommend it.</p><p>3.<b>Industrial-Construction</b>There is considerable room for valuation recovery, but their earnings expectations are generally slightly downward, and they may lack a catalyst for a rebound.</p><p>4.<b>raw materials</b>The industry is facing downward pressure after high-frequency commodity price data peaked. At the same time, due to high operating leverage, slight changes in revenue may cause drastic fluctuations in profits. We recommend careful consideration.</p><p>5. We will not elaborate on industries with too small a sample size.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9fcf7716e176d14fb293c49d27e6d3cb\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"755\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/29ec42def97349edfa95c07fdf1879cd\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"637\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4c824c1fc42398bc9fc05b99707ff3b9\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"510\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/72bf5f271d8a8fa1ac2d7d52b0152d62\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"649\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Logic Two: A Business Model Against Stagflation</b></p><p>There are two key words for stagflation: one is \"stagnation\"—representing economic recession; One is \"inflation\"—representing rising costs. Therefore, we need to find business models that can combat recessions or transmit costs. We will give examples of several industries.</p><p><b>Software industry SaaS companies</b></p><p>SaaS companies in the software industry are one of the segments we are most optimistic about. On the revenue side, they adopt a subscription model where customers prepay, charging customers a fee in advance to determine the length of service, and then recognizing this fee as revenue on a monthly/quarterly basis. On the cost side, the main cost for SaaS companies is marketing expenses, which are first paid to sales personnel and then gradually recognized as revenue increases. Therefore, SaaS companies will demonstrate strong performance rigidity and reflect their advantages in the early stages of an economic recession. Examples of such SaaS companies include cloud platform security system provider Datadog (DDOG US), cloud data platform company Zscaler (ZS US), and identity recognition system company OKTA (OKTA US).</p><p>At the same time, we should be cautious about software companies with other models. Their revenue comes from IT expenditures within corporate capital expenditures—an expenditure that is highly sensitive to economic cycles.</p><p><b>Internet intermediary platform</b></p><p>In terms of combating inflation, we believe that some internet intermediary platforms will perform exceptionally well. Their revenue is typically based on GMV—the volume of transactions on the platform—multiplied by a fixed take rate. With high inflation, their GMV will rise along with rapidly increasing prices. One example is Airbnb (ABNB US), which provides accommodation brokerage services for travelers and charges based on GBV (a variant of GMV). Since the year-on-year growth rate of hotel projects in the CPI has been at a high level of around 20% recently, Airbnb's GBV, and subsequently its revenue, will also be driven up by the higher growth rate of hotel and travel prices. Some companies in the online marketing and direct retail sector also fall into this category, such as Amazon (AMZN US) and eBay US.</p><p><b>semiconductor manufacturing industry</b></p><p>In addition, we are optimistic about some manufacturing companies with strong bargaining power, such as semiconductor manufacturing companies—they have high technological barriers and a relatively stable market structure, giving leading companies some room to raise prices based on demand. This helps them transmit cost pressures downstream. Among these companies, the price of consumer products, such as the CPUs used in PCs, will be relatively inelastic. Companies with a high proportion of corporate business will have a greater advantage because corporate products have more price elasticity than consumer products, a typical example being automotive semiconductor manufacturers such as ON US.</p><p><b>Logic 3: The Logic of Growth Stocks</b></p><p>As we mentioned in our mid-term strategy report, growth is invaluable during economic downturns. We believe that growth is the best defense. Therefore, we also recommend that investors prioritize industries and targets with high expected growth rates. If these targets also follow the two logics mentioned above, then they are the best choice.</p><p>Currently, the industries with relatively high expected growth rates are as follows:</p><p>1.<b>discretionary consumption</b>The main growth point is<b>automobile</b>and<b>Hotel catering</b>Industry. Among them,<b>automobile</b>There is significant divergence within the sector. New energy vehicle companies Tesla (TSLA US) and Lucid (LCID US) have high growth expectations, while traditional automakers have relatively mediocre growth expectations.<b>Hotel catering</b>This mainly benefits from the hotel industry's recovery from the pandemic, driven by two factors: a low base and a concentrated surge in demand, while the growth rate of the catering industry (especially fast food) is relatively mediocre.</p><p>2.<b>Communication services</b>In the sector,<b>recreation</b>The industry is growing relatively strongly. The main high-growth companies are Walt Disney (DIS US), which involves travel concepts; Live Nation (LYV US), a concert organizer; and Electronic Arts (EA US), a game company. The former two mainly benefited from the recovery of social activities, while the latter experienced relatively stable and rapid growth in in-game value-added service revenue.</p><p>3.<b>Information technology</b>Under the sector<b>semiconductor</b>and<b>software industry</b>。 Among them,<b>semiconductor</b>There are many high-growth companies in the industry. However, we should be wary of companies that have high growth expectations in 2022 but low expectations in 2023. Given the recent high sales volume of computers and servers, we should be wary of the risk of overdraft demand in the early stages and related companies experiencing high performance at the beginning and low performance at the end of 2022. We focus on companies that analysts believe will continue to grow strongly in 2023, such as MRVL US, Enphase Energy (ENPH US), SolarEdge Technologies (SEDG US), and NVIDIA US.<b>software industry</b>We believe a further distinction should be made between traditional software companies and SaaS companies. SaaS companies are expected to grow second only to the new energy vehicle sector, such as Datadog (DDOG US) and Zscaler (ZS US), making them industries we highly recommend.</p><p>4. We do not recommend sectors with high CAGR but uneven growth rates in 2022 and 2023 or with a small sample size.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e221f9b70bf80ea6a2d3d13e63ec9436\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"728\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1ea2617cdcee9c2759498d8c8d540948\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"665\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/95f8b0b4d4d07b5ee9bdd21a35855718\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"738\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b7a6e719cf587946d7cf63bb33bae409\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"392\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Logic Four: Oversold Logic</b></p><p>Because institutional investors usually have pre-determined holding structure requirements (such as the proportion of shares held in a certain sector in the portfolio must be within a certain range), when the price fluctuations of various market sectors are uneven, sectors with larger gains in the previous period will face greater selling pressure, while sectors with larger declines will benefit from investors' demand for replenishment.</p><p>We use the GICS segment as a reference standard. It is easy to see that the US energy sector stood out in the first half of 2022. This means that the proportion of energy sector stocks in institutional investors' holdings may have exceeded the predetermined upper limit. In this situation, investors will have to reduce their holdings of stocks in the energy sector. On the contrary,<b>Communication services</b>、<b>discretionary consumption</b>and<b>Information technology</b>The sectors have fallen significantly since the beginning of the year, so they are more likely to have broken through the lower limit of investors' holdings in these sectors. In this case, investors will have to increase their allocation to these sectors.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bc0e5300923df0191ae42145fa455991\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"515\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Risk: Be wary of high-frequency production/sales data</b></p><p>It is important to emphasize that we believe there is room for lowering the earnings forecasts of US-listed companies, but there is simply a lack of catalysts in the short term. Therefore, when we exploit information vacuum trading, we must be wary of the emergence of high-frequency data, such as retail data—which covers sub-sectors such as food and beverage, automobiles, pharmaceuticals, clothing, and energy. Therefore, if we seize short-term opportunities in the US market with expectations of stagflation, we need to be extremely cautious in these areas. Regarding price data, we believe there is no need to worry too much because, based on our observations so far, the market is generally price-neutral in terms of fundamental trading.</p><p><b>Hong Kong stocks: Maximize valuation repair and rising risk appetite</b></p><p><b>A brief overview of the short-term market situation in Hong Kong</b></p><p>Since its peak in February 2021, the Hang Seng Index first experienced a plateau period from March to June, fluctuating around 29,000 points. The decline began in July 2021 and bottomed out in March 2022. The Hang Seng Index is currently fluctuating between 20,000 and 23,000 points. From a macro perspective, the Chinese economy bottomed out in the second quarter, and the macroeconomic situation is expected to achieve a V-shaped reversal in the third quarter. From a micro perspective, the downward trend in the performance of companies in the Hong Kong stock market has continued for a whole year since July 2021. With the second quarter earnings period approaching, we believe that the downward revision of earnings is expected to be largely completed before the quiet period, and market expectations for the company are expected to stabilize as the earnings period ends. Currently, we believe that Hong Kong stocks have accumulated strong rebound momentum. There are two possibilities in the second half of the year:</p><p>1. Hong Kong stocks rebounded in the third quarter. Our suggestion is that investors should consider completing their positioning and profit-taking actions in the third quarter and cautiously observe in the fourth quarter.</p><p>2. Hong Kong stocks maintained a low-level fluctuation trend in the third quarter. We believe that Hong Kong stocks will achieve a U-shaped reversal in the fourth quarter of this year after macroeconomic risks are cleared.</p><p>Regardless of the scenario, our advice to investors is to make strategic plans in the third quarter.</p><p><b>The logic behind the Hong Kong stock market rebound in the third quarter and the key sectors recommended.</b></p><p>We believe there are four main reasons for the rebound in Hong Kong stocks: the first two are the main reasons, and the second two are supplementary reasons:</p><p>1.<b>Valuation repair logic</b>。 Similar to US stocks, if the previous decline was relatively large, but the downward revision of earnings expectations was less than the decline, there is room for valuation repair.</p><p>2.<b>risk appetite switching logic</b>。 We have found that at high market levels, companies with high growth rates have a greater valuation advantage; When the market is low, the valuation premium of high-growth companies decreases. Therefore, from a holistic perspective, when the market rebounds from low to high levels, high-growth companies will benefit from the valuation increase brought about by the shift in market risk appetite. We call this the \"risk appetite indicator\".</p><p>3.<b>Share repurchase logic</b>。 As mentioned in our earlier report, \"A Special Study on Hong Kong Stock Repurchases - Bottom-Fishing Strategies Based on Repurchase Data - Utilizing Collective Wisdom\" (April 27, 2022), we believe that listed companies have sent a signal at the macro level: they believe that their stock price is undervalued at the 23,000-point level of the Hang Seng Index. Despite the subsequent black swan events of the Russia-Ukraine military conflict and the COVID-19 outbreak in Shanghai, we believe that the long-term value of most domestic companies will not change significantly. We can look for companies with large buybacks during this round of decline to invest in, because their prospects are more endorsed by the company's management. At the micro level, this is a secondary logic, and it is recommended to use it in conjunction with the two main logics above.</p><p>4.<b>Premium logic of H-shares</b>。 Currently, the Shanghai-Hong Kong A-H Premium Index is at its highest level since the launch of the Stock Connect program, indicating some downward momentum. We believe that stocks listed in both AH and H markets, with premiums at historically high levels, are also worth considering for investors. This is a secondary logic.</p><p>In summary of the four rebound logics, our key recommendations are as follows:</p><p>1. Top Recommendation<b>Healthcare</b>The following sub-sections except for chemical drugs. Especially recommended<b>CXO and Biopharmaceutical Segment</b>。 They have both valuation recovery potential and high growth expectations, while also benefiting from the first two rebound logics.</p><p>2. Second recommendation<b>Information technology</b>Down<b>semiconductor</b>Sector. This sector has both valuation recovery potential and risk appetite shifting logic, but we should be wary of the risk that some individual stocks will have high performance at the beginning and low at the end of 2022-2023.</p><p>3. Additional recommendations<b>New energy vehicles and advertising in the media</b>Sector. They have high growth expectations, belong to emerging industries, and may benefit from a shift in risk appetite.</p><p>4. Finally, we recommend<b>Internet companies</b>These are highly anticipated core stocks in the Hong Kong stock market and are very likely to become the leaders of the Hong Kong stock market rebound.</p><p>5. The stocks we recommend cover most of the constituent stocks of the Hang Seng Tech Index. Therefore, we recommend at the index level.<b>Hang Seng Technology</b>。</p><p><b>Logic 1: Valuation Repair Logic</b></p><p>Similar to the valuation repair logic we use in the US stock market, if the reduction in earnings expectations for a stock/industry is less than the decline in stock price, then there is room for valuation repair during the rebound.</p><p>We applied a uniform +31% treatment to stock price fluctuations (31% is the average decline of the sample stocks since the second half of 2021) to distinguish between companies with declines greater than and less than the average. When calculating valuation recovery potential, we base our calculations on changes in profit expectations for companies with stable profits, and on revenue expectations for companies with unstable profits.</p><p>Based on the data, we recommend the following sectors regarding the valuation repair logic:</p><p>1.<b>Healthcare</b>Multiple sub-sections below. We highly recommend<b>CXO and Biopharmaceutical Segment</b>These companies generally experienced a significant pullback/retracement in their stock prices in the early stages, but their earnings forecasts were raised. In addition,<b>Pharmaceutical and healthcare equipment and services</b>The sector also has ample room for valuation recovery.</p><p>2.<b>Information technology</b>The two sub-sections below.<b>semiconductor</b>There is significant divergence within the industry, with SMIC (981 HK) and Hua Hong Semiconductor (1347 HK) having ample room for valuation recovery.<b>Technology hardware</b>The main focus is on Xiaomi and Lenovo. The sample size is small, so I will not make any sector recommendations.</p><p>3. The sample size of distributors under discretionary consumption and construction products under industry is too small, so I will not elaborate further; The median decline in shipping stocks under the industrial sector was relatively low in the previous period, and there is no room for maneuver under the rebound logic, so we do not recommend it.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6da8772831406f08d537f0be3654a440\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"736\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f41003be5c098c8c43962a38b9021624\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"661\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9ae84e4ee3eb70a4f151573ae0496af7\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"863\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/56bc30ba442fac3d8b344365b7ad722c\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"394\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Logic 2: Risk Appetite Switching Logic</b></p><p>We compared the expected revenue 2-year CAGR and the PS at that time (using revenue and PS mainly to cover unprofitable companies) at two time points, the end of February 2021 – the high of the Hang Seng Index – and the current one.</p><p>We have found that the valuation advantage of high-growth stocks is amplified when the market is at a high point; When the market declines, the valuation advantage of high-growth stocks will be reduced. We believe this is mainly due to a shift in market risk appetite. From a graphical perspective, the stock expectation-valuation regression line at different points in time appears to have rotated, hence what we call the \"risk appetite indicator\".</p><p>Since February 2021, the \"risk appetite indicator\" has rotated clockwise as the market has declined, weakening the valuation advantage of high-growth stocks. Conversely, when the market presents a rebound opportunity, we believe that these high-growth stocks will also benefit from the counterclockwise rotation of the \"risk appetite indicator\" and, at the valuation level, from the increase in risk appetite. With expectations of improved fundamentals in the third quarter, high-growth stocks are expected to see a double boost from Davis.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/60b8beaee31c9d313677b2799c73ee5e\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"519\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>From an industry perspective, the following industries currently have high growth prospects:</p><p>1.<b>Cars under discretionary consumption</b>。<b>Automotive sector</b>It mainly benefited from some companies participating in the new energy vehicle market, while the growth rate of traditional automobile manufacturers was relatively low. Therefore, we recommend that investors lock in their<b>new energy vehicle</b>Rather than all automakers.</p><p>2.<b>Semiconductor sector under information technology</b>。 Except for a few individual stocks, they generally have relatively optimistic revenue CAGR expectations. However, we advise investors to pay attention to the risk of high performance at the beginning and low at the end when selecting semiconductor companies.</p><p>3.<b>Healthcare</b>The multiple sub-sections below, especially<b>Biological drugs</b>。 Apart from the pharmaceutical sector, the healthcare sector also showed encouraging growth. The pharmaceutical sub-sector has a low growth rate, mainly due to the drag from traditional chemical pharmaceutical companies.</p><p>4.<b>Media segment under communication services</b>In particular, advertising companies are expected to experience high earnings growth.</p><p>5. The hotel and catering sub-sector under discretionary consumption and the airline sub-sector under industry both have high growth expectations, but they are both traditional industries that benefit from the logic of pandemic recovery. Although the growth rate is expected to be high, it may not necessarily benefit from the increase in risk appetite.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/196f861399211f74f7dadbd6d51b238c\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"710\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>Logic 3: Share Repurchase Logic</b></p><p>In our earlier special report, \"A Special Study on Hong Kong Stock Repurchases - Bottom-Fishing Strategies Based on Repurchase Data - Utilizing Collective Wisdom\" (April 27, 2022), we studied the relationship between companies' repurchase behavior and the overall market and individual stocks. We believe that the company's previous share buybacks were also a plus, which can be understood as the company's \"bottom-fishing\" of its own stock.</p><p>With the first two more important rebound logics in place, the company's share buyback activities provide us with further protection. However, this is a secondary logic, and we recommend that investors only use it as a useful supplement.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c367411a0e2146523849f12059ec165b\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"609\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Logic Four: The Premium Logic of A-shares and H-shares</b></p><p>The Stock Connect program was launched in November 2014. Observing the premium of A-shares and H-shares since 2015, we found that the premium has now reached a high level, breaking through the +1 standard deviation level by a considerable distance. For companies listed on both H-shares and H-shares, we believe that the high premium of H-shares will also help the H-shares of the relevant companies rebound.</p><p>However, we generally believe that this logic is insufficient to support companies listed in both AH and H markets to generate excess returns. We recommend that investors choose the best among companies listed in both AH markets based on the first two main rebound logics. Targets with related overlaps include biopharmaceutical companies, CXO companies, some companies in the new energy vehicle industry chain, and a small number of semiconductor companies.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd85f18d2127e76f6975518f8fcc0ccc\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"515\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Risk Warning</b></p><p>The uncertainty surrounding the development of the pandemic; The risk that the company's performance falls short of expectations; International political and economic emergencies; The Federal Reserve's unexpected monetary policy style.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"w19319","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>How will US and Hong Kong stocks trade in Q3? Finding the intersection of rebound logic</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHow will US and Hong Kong stocks trade in Q3? Finding the intersection of rebound logic\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">学恒的海外观察</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-07-29 17:41</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><b>The third quarter may be an important investment window for US and Hong Kong stocks in 2022.</b></p><p>In the US stock market, the Federal Reserve is still in the rate hike channel, and there are expectations of stagflation at the macro level, but we believe that US stocks will rebound in the third quarter. This is mainly due to the information vacuum period in the third quarter: 1) At the macro level, the CPI is unlikely to reach a new high year-on-year. July and August are just a matter of how much it will decline. GDP is a lagging indicator of the market and has a limited impact on future stock price trends. 2) At the micro level, there is no catalyst for downward revision of corporate earnings during the interim report season; 3) On the monetary front, the September FOMC meeting is still some time away, and the Fed's attitude has marginally shifted to dovish. On the market, after the negative factors quickly cleared, US stocks continued to rise day by day, reflecting ample bullish power among US stock investors.</p><p>In Hong Kong stocks, the Hang Seng Index fell from July last year to March this year, maintaining a low-level fluctuation pattern for a quarter, with sufficient rebound momentum. From a fundamental perspective, we believe that China's macroeconomy bottomed out in the second quarter, and the downward trend in individual stock earnings is expected to end during the interim report season. Two scenarios may occur in the second half of this year: 1) If there is a rebound in the third quarter, we advise investors to be cautious in the fourth quarter; 2) The market fluctuated at low levels in the third quarter and rebounded in the fourth quarter. In either case, we recommend that investors position themselves in the third quarter to prepare for a rebound.</p><p><b>US Stocks: Choose the Best Between Valuation Recovery Potential and Business Model</b></p><p>We provide investors with four rationales for the rebound: 1) The earnings forecast has not been lowered, but the valuation repair logic brought about by the oversold stock price; 2) Find a business model that can combat stagflation; 3) Leverage high growth momentum to overcome the economic recession; 4) The forced demand from institutional investors to add to their positions due to the previous oversold price. Our recommended industries are:</p><p>1. Top Recommendation<b>Software industry SaaS</b>Company: There is ample room for valuation recovery; Business models are quite rigid in the early stages of an economic recession; It belongs to an emerging industry with high growth rate; The previous decline was significant, and investors have a need to add to their positions. It conforms to 4/4 of the rebound logic, and is the top recommendation.</p><p>2. Secondary push<b>new energy vehicle</b>Manufacturers: There is ample room for valuation recovery; Located at the sweet spot of the penetration curve, the growth rate is expected to be high; The consumer discretionary sector to which it belongs had previously experienced a significant decline, and investors had a need to replenish their positions. It conforms to the 3/4 rebound logic; second recommendation.</p><p>3.<b>semiconductor</b>Sector: There is room for valuation recovery; It has good cost transmission capabilities and is resistant to inflation; high growth rate; Previously oversold. It meets the 4/4 rebound logic, but there is a risk of high performance at the beginning and low at the end. Recommended.</p><p><b>Hong Kong stocks: Maximize valuation repair and rising risk appetite</b></p><p>We provide investors with two main rebound logics: 1) The valuation repair logic resulting from a small/no reduction in earnings forecasts, but a significant decline; 2) The logic behind rising risk appetite and benefiting growth stocks. And two secondary logics: 1) Regarding the company's previous share buybacks as management's endorsement of the fundamentals; 2) Find arbitrage opportunities in companies with high premiums in H-shares. Our recommended industries are:</p><p>1.<b>Healthcare</b>The next several sub-sections, especially<b>lol</b>and<b>Biological drugs</b>。 They have ample room for valuation recovery and high expected growth rates, and are expected to benefit from rising risk appetite. It conforms to 2/2 of the main logic points and is the top recommendation.</p><p>2.<b>Information technology</b>Down<b>semiconductor</b>Sector. They also have good room for valuation recovery and high earnings growth expectations, but we must be wary of the risk of high earnings at the beginning and low earnings at the end. It meets 2/2 of the main logic points, but there is 1 risk, so it is recommended secondarily.</p><p>3. Also recommended<b>Internet companies</b>as well as<b>Hang Seng Technology Index</b>。</p><p><b>Risk Warning:</b>The uncertainty surrounding the development of the pandemic; The risk that the company's performance falls short of expectations; International political and economic emergencies; The Federal Reserve's unexpected monetary policy style.</p><p><b>US Stocks: Choose the Best Between Valuation Recovery Potential and Business Model</b></p><p><b>Overall Outlook for Trading Logic in US Stocks in the Third Quarter</b></p><p>We believe the third quarter will be an important window of opportunity for investing in US stocks this year. In the third quarter, we saw three information vacuums:</p><p>1. The vacuum period of macroeconomic data. Judging from high-frequency data such as commodities, the CPI in July and August is unlikely to surpass the 9.1% year-on-year increase in June, simply because of the difference in the magnitude of the decline. In terms of GDP, the US GDP fell by 0.9% year-on-year in the second quarter. However, GDP is generally an indicator that lags behind the market, and the macro recession expectation pattern has been established (the 10-2 year US Treasury yields inversion has stabilized). Overall, it does not have an impact on the market trend.</p><p>2. A vacuum period in corporate profitability. Since the start of the interim report season, the half-year results of US-listed companies have generally met expectations. Although economic recession expectations are gradually taking shape at the macro level, there is still a lack of catalysts for downward revisions to corporate earnings at the micro level, and we need to wait further for corporate performance in the third quarter.</p><p>3. A vacuum period in monetary policy. The 75 basis point reduction in rate hike in July has been announced, and the market expects the pace of rate hike to slow down in September. In line with market expectations, the speeches by Federal Reserve officials and the FOMC statement showed a significant marginal dovish turn. This trend is unlikely to reverse in the short term. Meanwhile, there are still two months until the next official announcement.</p><p>Looking at the market, we realize that the bulls in the US market are still very strong – negative factors are quickly cleared in the market, and then the stock market can return to a state of daily upward movement. Therefore, we believe that the third quarter of this year is an important window of opportunity for US stock investment, and investors are expected to profit from the rebound.</p><p><b>Investment logic and top recommended sectors for the US stock market rebound</b></p><p>In this rebound strategy, we employ four sets of logic:</p><p>1.<b>Valuation repair logic</b>If a company's earnings forecast is raised (or not lowered) but its stock price falls, it enjoys the opportunity to prioritize valuation repair during a rebound.</p><p>2.<b>Anti-stagflation business model</b>Given the expectation of stagflation at the macro level, companies whose business models can naturally withstand economic recession or high inflation will be favored by investors during a rebound.</p><p>3.<b>Growth stock logic</b>We will adopt an offensive approach and break through the limitations of the economic recession with high growth momentum;</p><p>4.<b>Oversold logic</b>The price has fallen significantly in the early stages, but it may rise significantly later. For institutional investors, sectors with significant declines may have already exceeded the pre-set lower limit of their allocation ratio, and they will have to add to their positions in these oversold sectors.</p><p>Here is a summary of the recommended industries:</p><p>1. Top Recommendation<b>Software industry SaaS</b>Company. This aligns with logic one, indicating significant room for valuation recovery; This aligns with logic two: prepayment revenue is accrued over time, and the business model is highly resilient to short-term recessions; Emerging industries with high growth potential conform to logic three; This aligns with logic four: the previous decline was significant, and investors have a need to add to their positions. SaaS companies in the software industry are at the intersection of four rebound logics, and this is the top recommendation.</p><p>2. Secondly, push<b>New energy vehicles in automobiles</b>。 This aligns with logic one, indicating significant room for valuation recovery; Consistent with logic three, it is located at the sweet spot of the penetration curve, with a high growth rate expected and is expected to weather the cycle; This aligns with logic four: the previous decline was significant, indicating a need to replenish positions. Three out of four logical points are recommended.</p><p>3.<b>semiconductor industry</b>It is also one of our key recommendations. The main opportunities lie in the new energy and cloud computing sectors, with priority given to corporate products. This aligns with logic one, indicating significant room for valuation recovery; This aligns with logic two: the competitive landscape is stable, and the company has strong bargaining power and cost transmission capabilities. This aligns with logic three, indicating a high growth rate expectation; This conforms to logic four, indicating a need to replenish positions. The risk lies in the high sales volume of servers and computers in the early stages, which could lead to overdraft demand. We must be wary of high performance at the beginning and low performance at the end. Semiconductors account for all four rebound logics, but there is one risk, which is recommended.</p><p>4. In addition, we recommend that investors consider the hotel and entertainment sectors driven by the recovery of the epidemic, and the pharmaceutical CXO sector, which has great potential for valuation recovery.</p><p><b>Logic 1: Valuation Repair Logic</b></p><p>The first logic for looking for a rebound is valuation repair. Specifically, at the execution level, we believe that stocks whose earnings forecasts have not been revised downward, but whose stock prices have fallen, will have room for valuation recovery during the rebound, demonstrating greater elasticity. For earnings forecasts, we use the adjustment range of the listed company's 2023 Bloomberg consensus profit forecast (if the company is not profitable, we use the revenue adjustment range instead). Stock price performance: We use the company's stock price changes from the beginning of the year to the present.</p><p>We applied a simple +13% treatment to the stock price decline (13% is the average decline of our sample stocks) to offset the stock price pressure that is fair to all stocks from the liquidity tightening. We call the processed price fluctuations \"relative price fluctuations\". If a company's earnings adjustment minus the relative change in stock price is greater than 0%, it indicates that the stock has room for valuation repair. That is, the following formula:</p><p>Valuation recovery potential = Earnings adjustment range - Relative change</p><p>It should be added that, in addition to the quantitative limitation of valuation recovery potential, there is another qualitative requirement for valuation recovery—it must fall in the early stages, not rise. A typical example that is not suitable for valuation repair logic is the energy sector. Since the beginning of the year, the energy sector's earnings revisions have increased more than its stock price gains. However, the stock price is generally rising rather than falling, so a \"rebound\" is out of the question.</p><p>Data shows that sectors with significant room for valuation recovery include:</p><p>1.<b>Non-Daily Consumer Goods (Consumer Discretionary) – Automotive Segment</b>There is considerable room for valuation recovery. However, upon closer examination, the valuation recovery potential of this sector is basically concentrated in new energy vehicle manufacturers represented by Tesla (TSLA US).</p><p>2.<b>Information Technology – Semiconductor</b>The company's earnings for the first half of this year were generally revised upward, but its stock price fell. Sub-sectors with significant room for valuation recovery include automotive semiconductor manufacturers (such as ON Semiconductor ON US) and GPU manufacturers with cloud concepts (such as NVIDIA NVDA US and AMD US).</p><p>3.<b>Information Technology - Software</b>The valuation recovery potential is quite divergent, but there are some stocks with leading valuation recovery potential, which are generally SaaS companies.</p><p>4.<b>Healthcare - Life Sciences Tools & Services (CXO)</b>There is generally some room for valuation recovery. This includes some companies whose earnings have been revised upwards but whose stock prices have fallen sharply.</p><p>5.<b>Information Technology -</b>The changes in earnings expectations were relatively stable, but the decline was significant. The upcoming rebound is expected to attract the attention of defensive investors.</p><p>Sectors with significant valuation recovery potential that we don't highly recommend:</p><p>1.<b>Finance - Commercial Banking</b>There is also considerable room for valuation recovery, mainly due to the significant upward revision of bank performance in the previous period, which has certain investment value. However, banks have large market capitalizations and are not our first choice when pursuing a rebound.</p><p>2.<b>energy</b>The valuation recovery potential is relatively high. However, energy prices were on an upward trend in the first half of the year, making a \"rebound\" out of the question, and we do not recommend it.</p><p>3.<b>Industrial-Construction</b>There is considerable room for valuation recovery, but their earnings expectations are generally slightly downward, and they may lack a catalyst for a rebound.</p><p>4.<b>raw materials</b>The industry is facing downward pressure after high-frequency commodity price data peaked. At the same time, due to high operating leverage, slight changes in revenue may cause drastic fluctuations in profits. We recommend careful consideration.</p><p>5. We will not elaborate on industries with too small a sample size.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9fcf7716e176d14fb293c49d27e6d3cb\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"755\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/29ec42def97349edfa95c07fdf1879cd\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"637\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4c824c1fc42398bc9fc05b99707ff3b9\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"510\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/72bf5f271d8a8fa1ac2d7d52b0152d62\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"649\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Logic Two: A Business Model Against Stagflation</b></p><p>There are two key words for stagflation: one is \"stagnation\"—representing economic recession; One is \"inflation\"—representing rising costs. Therefore, we need to find business models that can combat recessions or transmit costs. We will give examples of several industries.</p><p><b>Software industry SaaS companies</b></p><p>SaaS companies in the software industry are one of the segments we are most optimistic about. On the revenue side, they adopt a subscription model where customers prepay, charging customers a fee in advance to determine the length of service, and then recognizing this fee as revenue on a monthly/quarterly basis. On the cost side, the main cost for SaaS companies is marketing expenses, which are first paid to sales personnel and then gradually recognized as revenue increases. Therefore, SaaS companies will demonstrate strong performance rigidity and reflect their advantages in the early stages of an economic recession. Examples of such SaaS companies include cloud platform security system provider Datadog (DDOG US), cloud data platform company Zscaler (ZS US), and identity recognition system company OKTA (OKTA US).</p><p>At the same time, we should be cautious about software companies with other models. Their revenue comes from IT expenditures within corporate capital expenditures—an expenditure that is highly sensitive to economic cycles.</p><p><b>Internet intermediary platform</b></p><p>In terms of combating inflation, we believe that some internet intermediary platforms will perform exceptionally well. Their revenue is typically based on GMV—the volume of transactions on the platform—multiplied by a fixed take rate. With high inflation, their GMV will rise along with rapidly increasing prices. One example is Airbnb (ABNB US), which provides accommodation brokerage services for travelers and charges based on GBV (a variant of GMV). Since the year-on-year growth rate of hotel projects in the CPI has been at a high level of around 20% recently, Airbnb's GBV, and subsequently its revenue, will also be driven up by the higher growth rate of hotel and travel prices. Some companies in the online marketing and direct retail sector also fall into this category, such as Amazon (AMZN US) and eBay US.</p><p><b>semiconductor manufacturing industry</b></p><p>In addition, we are optimistic about some manufacturing companies with strong bargaining power, such as semiconductor manufacturing companies—they have high technological barriers and a relatively stable market structure, giving leading companies some room to raise prices based on demand. This helps them transmit cost pressures downstream. Among these companies, the price of consumer products, such as the CPUs used in PCs, will be relatively inelastic. Companies with a high proportion of corporate business will have a greater advantage because corporate products have more price elasticity than consumer products, a typical example being automotive semiconductor manufacturers such as ON US.</p><p><b>Logic 3: The Logic of Growth Stocks</b></p><p>As we mentioned in our mid-term strategy report, growth is invaluable during economic downturns. We believe that growth is the best defense. Therefore, we also recommend that investors prioritize industries and targets with high expected growth rates. If these targets also follow the two logics mentioned above, then they are the best choice.</p><p>Currently, the industries with relatively high expected growth rates are as follows:</p><p>1.<b>discretionary consumption</b>The main growth point is<b>automobile</b>and<b>Hotel catering</b>Industry. Among them,<b>automobile</b>There is significant divergence within the sector. New energy vehicle companies Tesla (TSLA US) and Lucid (LCID US) have high growth expectations, while traditional automakers have relatively mediocre growth expectations.<b>Hotel catering</b>This mainly benefits from the hotel industry's recovery from the pandemic, driven by two factors: a low base and a concentrated surge in demand, while the growth rate of the catering industry (especially fast food) is relatively mediocre.</p><p>2.<b>Communication services</b>In the sector,<b>recreation</b>The industry is growing relatively strongly. The main high-growth companies are Walt Disney (DIS US), which involves travel concepts; Live Nation (LYV US), a concert organizer; and Electronic Arts (EA US), a game company. The former two mainly benefited from the recovery of social activities, while the latter experienced relatively stable and rapid growth in in-game value-added service revenue.</p><p>3.<b>Information technology</b>Under the sector<b>semiconductor</b>and<b>software industry</b>。 Among them,<b>semiconductor</b>There are many high-growth companies in the industry. However, we should be wary of companies that have high growth expectations in 2022 but low expectations in 2023. Given the recent high sales volume of computers and servers, we should be wary of the risk of overdraft demand in the early stages and related companies experiencing high performance at the beginning and low performance at the end of 2022. We focus on companies that analysts believe will continue to grow strongly in 2023, such as MRVL US, Enphase Energy (ENPH US), SolarEdge Technologies (SEDG US), and NVIDIA US.<b>software industry</b>We believe a further distinction should be made between traditional software companies and SaaS companies. SaaS companies are expected to grow second only to the new energy vehicle sector, such as Datadog (DDOG US) and Zscaler (ZS US), making them industries we highly recommend.</p><p>4. We do not recommend sectors with high CAGR but uneven growth rates in 2022 and 2023 or with a small sample size.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e221f9b70bf80ea6a2d3d13e63ec9436\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"728\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1ea2617cdcee9c2759498d8c8d540948\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"665\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/95f8b0b4d4d07b5ee9bdd21a35855718\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"738\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b7a6e719cf587946d7cf63bb33bae409\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"392\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Logic Four: Oversold Logic</b></p><p>Because institutional investors usually have pre-determined holding structure requirements (such as the proportion of shares held in a certain sector in the portfolio must be within a certain range), when the price fluctuations of various market sectors are uneven, sectors with larger gains in the previous period will face greater selling pressure, while sectors with larger declines will benefit from investors' demand for replenishment.</p><p>We use the GICS segment as a reference standard. It is easy to see that the US energy sector stood out in the first half of 2022. This means that the proportion of energy sector stocks in institutional investors' holdings may have exceeded the predetermined upper limit. In this situation, investors will have to reduce their holdings of stocks in the energy sector. On the contrary,<b>Communication services</b>、<b>discretionary consumption</b>and<b>Information technology</b>The sectors have fallen significantly since the beginning of the year, so they are more likely to have broken through the lower limit of investors' holdings in these sectors. In this case, investors will have to increase their allocation to these sectors.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bc0e5300923df0191ae42145fa455991\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"515\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Risk: Be wary of high-frequency production/sales data</b></p><p>It is important to emphasize that we believe there is room for lowering the earnings forecasts of US-listed companies, but there is simply a lack of catalysts in the short term. Therefore, when we exploit information vacuum trading, we must be wary of the emergence of high-frequency data, such as retail data—which covers sub-sectors such as food and beverage, automobiles, pharmaceuticals, clothing, and energy. Therefore, if we seize short-term opportunities in the US market with expectations of stagflation, we need to be extremely cautious in these areas. Regarding price data, we believe there is no need to worry too much because, based on our observations so far, the market is generally price-neutral in terms of fundamental trading.</p><p><b>Hong Kong stocks: Maximize valuation repair and rising risk appetite</b></p><p><b>A brief overview of the short-term market situation in Hong Kong</b></p><p>Since its peak in February 2021, the Hang Seng Index first experienced a plateau period from March to June, fluctuating around 29,000 points. The decline began in July 2021 and bottomed out in March 2022. The Hang Seng Index is currently fluctuating between 20,000 and 23,000 points. From a macro perspective, the Chinese economy bottomed out in the second quarter, and the macroeconomic situation is expected to achieve a V-shaped reversal in the third quarter. From a micro perspective, the downward trend in the performance of companies in the Hong Kong stock market has continued for a whole year since July 2021. With the second quarter earnings period approaching, we believe that the downward revision of earnings is expected to be largely completed before the quiet period, and market expectations for the company are expected to stabilize as the earnings period ends. Currently, we believe that Hong Kong stocks have accumulated strong rebound momentum. There are two possibilities in the second half of the year:</p><p>1. Hong Kong stocks rebounded in the third quarter. Our suggestion is that investors should consider completing their positioning and profit-taking actions in the third quarter and cautiously observe in the fourth quarter.</p><p>2. Hong Kong stocks maintained a low-level fluctuation trend in the third quarter. We believe that Hong Kong stocks will achieve a U-shaped reversal in the fourth quarter of this year after macroeconomic risks are cleared.</p><p>Regardless of the scenario, our advice to investors is to make strategic plans in the third quarter.</p><p><b>The logic behind the Hong Kong stock market rebound in the third quarter and the key sectors recommended.</b></p><p>We believe there are four main reasons for the rebound in Hong Kong stocks: the first two are the main reasons, and the second two are supplementary reasons:</p><p>1.<b>Valuation repair logic</b>。 Similar to US stocks, if the previous decline was relatively large, but the downward revision of earnings expectations was less than the decline, there is room for valuation repair.</p><p>2.<b>risk appetite switching logic</b>。 We have found that at high market levels, companies with high growth rates have a greater valuation advantage; When the market is low, the valuation premium of high-growth companies decreases. Therefore, from a holistic perspective, when the market rebounds from low to high levels, high-growth companies will benefit from the valuation increase brought about by the shift in market risk appetite. We call this the \"risk appetite indicator\".</p><p>3.<b>Share repurchase logic</b>。 As mentioned in our earlier report, \"A Special Study on Hong Kong Stock Repurchases - Bottom-Fishing Strategies Based on Repurchase Data - Utilizing Collective Wisdom\" (April 27, 2022), we believe that listed companies have sent a signal at the macro level: they believe that their stock price is undervalued at the 23,000-point level of the Hang Seng Index. Despite the subsequent black swan events of the Russia-Ukraine military conflict and the COVID-19 outbreak in Shanghai, we believe that the long-term value of most domestic companies will not change significantly. We can look for companies with large buybacks during this round of decline to invest in, because their prospects are more endorsed by the company's management. At the micro level, this is a secondary logic, and it is recommended to use it in conjunction with the two main logics above.</p><p>4.<b>Premium logic of H-shares</b>。 Currently, the Shanghai-Hong Kong A-H Premium Index is at its highest level since the launch of the Stock Connect program, indicating some downward momentum. We believe that stocks listed in both AH and H markets, with premiums at historically high levels, are also worth considering for investors. This is a secondary logic.</p><p>In summary of the four rebound logics, our key recommendations are as follows:</p><p>1. Top Recommendation<b>Healthcare</b>The following sub-sections except for chemical drugs. Especially recommended<b>CXO and Biopharmaceutical Segment</b>。 They have both valuation recovery potential and high growth expectations, while also benefiting from the first two rebound logics.</p><p>2. Second recommendation<b>Information technology</b>Down<b>semiconductor</b>Sector. This sector has both valuation recovery potential and risk appetite shifting logic, but we should be wary of the risk that some individual stocks will have high performance at the beginning and low at the end of 2022-2023.</p><p>3. Additional recommendations<b>New energy vehicles and advertising in the media</b>Sector. They have high growth expectations, belong to emerging industries, and may benefit from a shift in risk appetite.</p><p>4. Finally, we recommend<b>Internet companies</b>These are highly anticipated core stocks in the Hong Kong stock market and are very likely to become the leaders of the Hong Kong stock market rebound.</p><p>5. The stocks we recommend cover most of the constituent stocks of the Hang Seng Tech Index. Therefore, we recommend at the index level.<b>Hang Seng Technology</b>。</p><p><b>Logic 1: Valuation Repair Logic</b></p><p>Similar to the valuation repair logic we use in the US stock market, if the reduction in earnings expectations for a stock/industry is less than the decline in stock price, then there is room for valuation repair during the rebound.</p><p>We applied a uniform +31% treatment to stock price fluctuations (31% is the average decline of the sample stocks since the second half of 2021) to distinguish between companies with declines greater than and less than the average. When calculating valuation recovery potential, we base our calculations on changes in profit expectations for companies with stable profits, and on revenue expectations for companies with unstable profits.</p><p>Based on the data, we recommend the following sectors regarding the valuation repair logic:</p><p>1.<b>Healthcare</b>Multiple sub-sections below. We highly recommend<b>CXO and Biopharmaceutical Segment</b>These companies generally experienced a significant pullback/retracement in their stock prices in the early stages, but their earnings forecasts were raised. In addition,<b>Pharmaceutical and healthcare equipment and services</b>The sector also has ample room for valuation recovery.</p><p>2.<b>Information technology</b>The two sub-sections below.<b>semiconductor</b>There is significant divergence within the industry, with SMIC (981 HK) and Hua Hong Semiconductor (1347 HK) having ample room for valuation recovery.<b>Technology hardware</b>The main focus is on Xiaomi and Lenovo. The sample size is small, so I will not make any sector recommendations.</p><p>3. The sample size of distributors under discretionary consumption and construction products under industry is too small, so I will not elaborate further; The median decline in shipping stocks under the industrial sector was relatively low in the previous period, and there is no room for maneuver under the rebound logic, so we do not recommend it.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6da8772831406f08d537f0be3654a440\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"736\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f41003be5c098c8c43962a38b9021624\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"661\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9ae84e4ee3eb70a4f151573ae0496af7\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"863\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/56bc30ba442fac3d8b344365b7ad722c\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"394\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Logic 2: Risk Appetite Switching Logic</b></p><p>We compared the expected revenue 2-year CAGR and the PS at that time (using revenue and PS mainly to cover unprofitable companies) at two time points, the end of February 2021 – the high of the Hang Seng Index – and the current one.</p><p>We have found that the valuation advantage of high-growth stocks is amplified when the market is at a high point; When the market declines, the valuation advantage of high-growth stocks will be reduced. We believe this is mainly due to a shift in market risk appetite. From a graphical perspective, the stock expectation-valuation regression line at different points in time appears to have rotated, hence what we call the \"risk appetite indicator\".</p><p>Since February 2021, the \"risk appetite indicator\" has rotated clockwise as the market has declined, weakening the valuation advantage of high-growth stocks. Conversely, when the market presents a rebound opportunity, we believe that these high-growth stocks will also benefit from the counterclockwise rotation of the \"risk appetite indicator\" and, at the valuation level, from the increase in risk appetite. With expectations of improved fundamentals in the third quarter, high-growth stocks are expected to see a double boost from Davis.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/60b8beaee31c9d313677b2799c73ee5e\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"519\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>From an industry perspective, the following industries currently have high growth prospects:</p><p>1.<b>Cars under discretionary consumption</b>。<b>Automotive sector</b>It mainly benefited from some companies participating in the new energy vehicle market, while the growth rate of traditional automobile manufacturers was relatively low. Therefore, we recommend that investors lock in their<b>new energy vehicle</b>Rather than all automakers.</p><p>2.<b>Semiconductor sector under information technology</b>。 Except for a few individual stocks, they generally have relatively optimistic revenue CAGR expectations. However, we advise investors to pay attention to the risk of high performance at the beginning and low at the end when selecting semiconductor companies.</p><p>3.<b>Healthcare</b>The multiple sub-sections below, especially<b>Biological drugs</b>。 Apart from the pharmaceutical sector, the healthcare sector also showed encouraging growth. The pharmaceutical sub-sector has a low growth rate, mainly due to the drag from traditional chemical pharmaceutical companies.</p><p>4.<b>Media segment under communication services</b>In particular, advertising companies are expected to experience high earnings growth.</p><p>5. The hotel and catering sub-sector under discretionary consumption and the airline sub-sector under industry both have high growth expectations, but they are both traditional industries that benefit from the logic of pandemic recovery. Although the growth rate is expected to be high, it may not necessarily benefit from the increase in risk appetite.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/196f861399211f74f7dadbd6d51b238c\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"710\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>Logic 3: Share Repurchase Logic</b></p><p>In our earlier special report, \"A Special Study on Hong Kong Stock Repurchases - Bottom-Fishing Strategies Based on Repurchase Data - Utilizing Collective Wisdom\" (April 27, 2022), we studied the relationship between companies' repurchase behavior and the overall market and individual stocks. We believe that the company's previous share buybacks were also a plus, which can be understood as the company's \"bottom-fishing\" of its own stock.</p><p>With the first two more important rebound logics in place, the company's share buyback activities provide us with further protection. However, this is a secondary logic, and we recommend that investors only use it as a useful supplement.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c367411a0e2146523849f12059ec165b\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"609\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Logic Four: The Premium Logic of A-shares and H-shares</b></p><p>The Stock Connect program was launched in November 2014. Observing the premium of A-shares and H-shares since 2015, we found that the premium has now reached a high level, breaking through the +1 standard deviation level by a considerable distance. For companies listed on both H-shares and H-shares, we believe that the high premium of H-shares will also help the H-shares of the relevant companies rebound.</p><p>However, we generally believe that this logic is insufficient to support companies listed in both AH and H markets to generate excess returns. We recommend that investors choose the best among companies listed in both AH markets based on the first two main rebound logics. Targets with related overlaps include biopharmaceutical companies, CXO companies, some companies in the new energy vehicle industry chain, and a small number of semiconductor companies.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd85f18d2127e76f6975518f8fcc0ccc\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"515\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Risk Warning</b></p><p>The uncertainty surrounding the development of the pandemic; The risk that the company's performance falls short of expectations; International political and economic emergencies; The Federal Reserve's unexpected monetary policy style.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/otESAs4BWujFnEZ2Xpx2AA\">学恒的海外观察</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fd680cd945fd32917c8ece66ec685e5f","relate_stocks":{"HSI":"恒生指数",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","HSCCI":"红筹指数","HSTECH":"恒生科技指数",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","HSCEI":"国企指数",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/otESAs4BWujFnEZ2Xpx2AA","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1182404599","content_text":"第三季度或是美股和港股2022年重要的投资时间窗口美股方面，联储尚处于加息通道，且宏观层面有滞胀预期，但我们认为美股在第三季度会有一轮反弹。这主要得益于三季度的信息真空期：1）宏观层面，CPI同比难创新高，7-8月只是下降多少的问题，GDP是大盘滞后指标，对未来股价走势影响有限；2）微观层面，中报季没有企业业绩下修的催化剂；3）货币层面，9月FOMC会议尚有时日，且联储态度边际转鸽。盘面上，利空因素快速出清后，美股仍能逐日上行，反映出美股投资者多头力量充裕。港股方面，恒指去年7月下跌至今年3月，低位震荡格局已维持一个季度，反弹势能充足。基本面上，我们认为中国宏观经济已在二季度见底，个股业绩下修趋势有望在中报季结束。今年下半年或出现两种情况：1）三季度反弹，则我们建议投资者四季度谨慎；2）三季度低位震荡，四季度反弹。无论是哪种情况，我们都建议投资者在三季度布局，准备迎接反弹。美股：在估值修复空间与商业模式中择优我们为投资者提供4条反弹逻辑：1）盈利预测未下调，但股价超跌带来的估值修复逻辑；2）寻找抗滞胀的商业模式；3）利用高增长动能突破经济衰退；4）前期超跌带来的机构投资者强制补仓需求。我们推荐的行业有：1.首推软件业SaaS公司：估值修复空间充裕；商业模式在经济衰退初期刚性较强；属于增速较高的新兴行业；前期跌幅较大，投资者有补仓需求。符合4/4条反弹逻辑，首推。2.次推新能源车制造商：估值修复空间充裕；位于渗透率曲线甜点上，增速预期高；所属的可选消费板块前期跌幅较大，投资者有补仓需求。符合3/4条反弹逻辑，次推。3.半导体行业：有估值修复空间；成本传导能力好，抗通胀；增速高；前期超跌。符合4/4条反弹逻辑，但有业绩前高后低的风险，推荐。港股：最大化利用估值修复与风险偏好上行我们为投资者提供2条主要反弹逻辑：1）盈利预测下调幅度小/未下调，但跌幅较大带来的估值修复逻辑；2）风险偏好上升，成长股受益逻辑。以及2条次要逻辑：1）将公司前期回购行为视为管理层对基本面的背书；2）在AH股高溢价的公司中寻找套利空间。我们推荐的行业有：1.医疗保健下多个子板块，尤其是CXO和生物药。它们有充足的估值修复空间且预期增速较高，有望受益于风险偏好抬升。符合2/2条主要逻辑，首推。2.信息技术下的半导体板块。它们也有较优的估值修复空间和较高的业绩增速预期，但须警惕业绩前高后低的风险。符合2/2条主要逻辑，但有1项风险，次推。3.另推荐互联网公司以及恒生科技指数。风险提示：疫情发展的不确定性；企业业绩不及预期的风险；国际政治经济突发事件；美联储预期外的货币政策风格。美股：在估值修复空间与商业模式中择优美股第三季度交易逻辑整体展望我们认为三季度将会是今年投资美股的重要时间窗口。在第三季度，我们看到了三个信息真空期：1.宏观数据的真空期。从大宗商品等高频数据来判断，7-8月CPI难以超越6月份同比增9.1%的水平，无非是降幅大小的区别。GDP方面，二季度美国GDP环比折年-0.9%，但GDP总体是个滞后于大盘的指标，且宏观面衰退预期格局已定型（10年-2年美债利率倒挂已经稳定）总体不构成大盘走势影响。2.企业盈利表现的真空期。中报季来临至今，美股企业的半年度业绩总体符合预期。尽管经济衰退预期逐渐在宏观层面形成，微观层面上企业业绩下修尚缺乏催化剂，需进一步等待企业第三季度的表现。3.货币政策的真空期。7月加息75bp靴子落地，市场期望9月加息节奏放缓。与市场期望一致，美联储官员讲话和FOMC声明显著边际转鸽。这个倾向短期内看反转概率较小。同时距离下次靴子落地还有2个月的时间。从盘面来看，我们认识到美国市场多头力量仍然很足——利空因素在市场上快速出清，然后股市便可以回到逐日上行的状态。所以，我们认为今年第三季度是美股投资重要的时间窗口，投资者有望从反弹中获取收益。美股反弹的投资逻辑和首推行业在这个反弹策略中，我们运用到四套逻辑：1.估值修复逻辑：如果公司的盈利预测上调了（或者没下调），但是股价却下跌了，便在反弹行情中享受优先估值修复的机会；2.抗滞胀商业模式：在宏观层面有滞胀预期的情况下，商业模式能够天然抵御经济衰退或高通胀的公司将在反弹行情中受到投资者的青睐；3.成长股逻辑：以攻为守，以较高的增长动能突破经济衰退大环境的限制；4.超跌逻辑：前期跌得多，后期或将涨得多。对机构投资者来说，跌幅较大的板块可能已经突破预先设置的配置比例下限，他们将不得不对这些超跌板块补仓。我们对推荐的行业做一个汇总：1.首推软件业SaaS公司。符合逻辑一，有较大估值修复空间；符合逻辑二，预付费按时间计提收入，商业模式短期抗衰退能力强；符合逻辑三，成长潜力较高的新兴行业；符合逻辑四，前期跌幅大，投资者有补仓需求。软件业SaaS公司是四条反弹逻辑的交汇点，首推。2.其次推汽车中的新能源车。符合逻辑一，有较大估值修复空间；符合逻辑三，位于渗透率曲线甜点，增速预期高，有望穿越周期；符合逻辑四，前期跌幅较大，有补仓需求。四条逻辑占三条，推荐。3.半导体行业也是我们的重点推荐之一。主要的机会在于新能源领域和云计算领域，对公产品优先。符合逻辑一，有较大估值修复空间；符合逻辑二，竞争格局稳定，有较强的议价能力和成本传导能力；符合逻辑三，增速预期高；符合逻辑四，有补仓需求。风险在于前期服务器和电脑销售量大，有需求透支的风险，须警惕业绩前高后低。半导体占全部四条反弹逻辑，但有一项风险，推荐。4.此外，我们建议投资者考虑疫情恢复带动的酒店、娱乐板块，和估值修复空间大的医药CXO板块。逻辑一：估值修复逻辑寻找反弹的第一个逻辑是估值修复。具体到执行层面，我们认为，业绩预期没有下修，但是股价下跌的股票，在反弹中会有估值修复空间，表现出更强的弹性。业绩预期，我们采用上市企业2023年彭博一致预期利润的调整幅度（如果企业不盈利，我们改用营收调整幅度）；股价表现，我们使用年初至今的公司的股价变动。我们对股价跌幅做了简单的+13%的处理（13%是我们样本股票的平均跌幅），以冲抵流动性收紧带来的对所有股票公平的股价压力。对处理后的涨跌幅，我们称之为“相对涨跌幅”。如果一家公司的业绩调整幅度减去股价相对涨跌幅大于0%，说明这支股票有估值修复空间。即以下公式：估值修复空间 = 业绩调整幅度 - 相对涨跌幅要补充的一点是，除了估值修复空间这个量化限制外，估值修复还有一个定性要求——前期必须要下跌，而非上涨。典型不适合估值修复逻辑的案例是能源板块。年初至今，能源板块的业绩上调幅度大于股价涨幅。但是股价总体呈上涨，而非下跌，所以“反弹”无从谈起。从数据来看，估值修复空间较大的板块有：1.非日常生活消费品（可选消费）-汽车板块有较大的估值修复空间。但展开看，该板块的估值修复空间基本上都集中在以特斯拉（TSLA US）为代表的新能源车厂商身上。2.信息技术-半导体板块，今年上半年业绩总体上调，但股价下跌。估值修复空间较大的细分公司有汽车半导体厂商（如安森美ON US）和带有云端概念的GPU制造商（如英伟达NVDA US和超微半导体AMD US）。3.信息技术-软件业估值修复空间分化比较严重，但有一些估值修复空间较领先的个股，普遍是SaaS公司。4.医疗保健-生命科学工具与服务（CXO）普遍具有一定的估值修复空间。包含了一些业绩上修，但股价大幅下跌的公司。5.信息技术-通信设备的业绩预期变化比较平稳，但跌幅较大。有望在接下来的反弹引起防御风格投资者的注意。那些估值修复空间大，但我们不重点推荐的行业：1.金融-商业银行的估值修复空间也比较大，主要是由于前期银行业绩上调幅度比较大，有一定配置价值。但银行市值较大，追求反弹时，不是我们的首选。2.能源的估值修复空间读数较高。但上半年能源处于上涨态势，“反弹”无从谈起，我们不作推荐。3.工业-建筑产品的估值修复空间比较大，但它们的业绩预期普遍呈现小幅下行状态，可能会缺乏反弹的催化剂。4.原材料行业面临高频商品价格数据见顶回落压力。同时，由于经营杠杆较高，营收的细微变化可能引起利润的剧烈波动。我们建议谨慎考虑。5.样本量过小的行业我们不作赘述。逻辑二：抗滞胀的商业模式滞胀的两个关键词，一个是“滞”——代表经济衰退；一个是“胀”——代表成本上升。所以，我们需要找到能够对抗衰退，或能够传导成本的商业模式。我们将对几个行业做举例说明。软件业SaaS公司软件业中的SaaS公司是我们最为看好的细分板块之一。它们收入端采用客户预付费的订阅模式，预先向客户收取一笔费用，确定服务时间长度，然后逐月/逐季将这笔费用确认为收入。成本端，SaaS公司的主要成本是营销支出，而营销支出也是先支付给销售人员，然后随营收逐步确认的。所以，SaaS公司将在经济衰退初期展现出强大的业绩刚性，体现优势。这类SaaS公司的案例包括，云平台安全系统提供商Datadog（DDOG US），云数据平台公司Zscaler（ZS US），身份识别系统公司OKTA（OKTA US）。同时，我们要谨慎对待其他模式的软件公司。它们的收入来自企业资本开支中的IT支出——这是对经济周期高度敏感的一项开支。互联网中介平台在对抗通胀方面，我们认为一些互联网中介平台将会表现地十分出众。他们的收入通常是基于GMV——平台上的交易量，乘以一个固定的费率（take rate）。在通胀高企的情况下，他们的GMV会随着快速增加的物价上升。其中的一个例子是爱彼迎（ABNB US），它为旅行者提供住宿中介服务，基于GBV（GMV的一个变形）收费。由于CPI中的旅馆项目同比增速近期一直处于20%左右的高位，爱彼迎的GBV，继而营收也会被较高的酒旅价格增速驱动上行。网络营销与直销零售板块下的一些公司也属于这个范畴，如亚马逊（AMZN US）和eBay公司（EBAY US）。半导体制造业另外，我们看好一些议价能力强的制造业公司，如半导体制造业——它们的技术壁垒高，市场格局比较稳定，对于龙头来说，有一定根据需求加价的空间。这有助于它们把成本端的压力传导至下游。在这些公司中，消费级产品，如PC电脑使用的CPU的价格将比较缺乏弹性。对公业务占比较高的公司优势将会更大，因为对公产品比消费级产品的价格弹性更足，比较典型的便是汽车半导体制造商，如安森美（ON US）。逻辑三：成长股逻辑正如我们在中期策略报告中提到，经济不景气时，成长弥足珍贵。我们相信增长是最好的防御。所以，我们也建议投资者优先考虑预期增速较高的行业和标的。如果这些标的也带有前面的两条逻辑，那便是上上之选。目前来看，预期增速比较高的几个行业如下：1.可选消费，主要的增长点是汽车和酒店餐饮行业。其中，汽车板块内部有较大分化，新能源车企特斯拉（TSLA US）和Lucid（LCID US）有较高的增速预期，传统车企的增速预期比较平庸。酒店餐饮则主要受益于酒店行业正在从疫情中恢复，具有低基数和需求集中爆发两个驱动因素，餐饮（尤其快餐）的增速则比较平庸。2.通信服务板块中，娱乐行业增速比较强劲。主要高增速的公司是涉及旅游概念的华特迪士尼（DIS US）、音乐会承办公司Live Nation（LYV US）和游戏公司电子艺界（EA US）。前两者主要受益于社会活动的恢复，后者有较为稳定且快速的游戏内增值服务收入增长。3.信息技术板块下的半导体和软件业。其中，半导体行业下有许多高增速公司。但是我们要警惕那些2022年增速预期高，2023年预期低的公司。因为电脑和服务器在近期的销量较高，我们应警惕前期需求透支，相关公司2022年业绩前高后低的风险。我们重点选择分析师认为2023年业绩仍能高增的公司，如美满电子（MRVL US）、Enphase能源（ENPH US）、SolarEdge科技（SEDG US）、英伟达（NVDA US）。软件业，我们认为应进一步区分为传统软件公司和SaaS公司。SaaS公司预期增速仅次于新能源车板块，如Datadog（DDOG US）和Zscaler（ZS US），是我们重点推荐的行业。4.CAGR高但是2022和2023年增速过于不均衡或样本量太小的行业，我们不作板块推荐。逻辑四：超跌逻辑由于机构投资者通常都有事先确定好的持仓结构要求（如某一板块的持股占投资组合的比例必须处于某个区间内），在市场各板块涨跌幅不均的情况下，前期涨幅较大的板块将面临更大的抛压，跌幅较大的板块将受益于投资者的补仓需求。我们以GICS板块作为参考标准。不难看出，美股能源板块在2022年上半年的表现一枝独秀。这意味着，能源板块的股票在机构投资者持仓中的占比可能已经超过了事先给定的持仓比例上限。在这种情况下，投资者将不得不减持能源板块的股票。相反，通信服务、可选消费和信息技术板块年初至今的跌幅较大，所以它们更有可能已经向下突破了投资者在这些板块的持仓比例下限，在这种情况下，投资者将不得不增配这些板块。风险：警惕高频产量/销量数据需要强调的一点是，我们认为美股公司的业绩预期并非没有下调空间，只是短期缺乏催化剂。所以，当我们利用信息真空交易时，一定要警惕高频数据的出现，如零售数据——它们涵盖了食饮、汽车、药物、服饰、能源等细分。所以，如果我们怀着滞胀预期在美国市场抓短期机会，这些领域需要格外慎重。价格数据方面，我们认为无需过于担忧，因为就我们目前为止的观察，市场在基本面交易上总体呈价格中性。港股：最大化利用估值修复与风险偏好上行港股短期市场状态简述自2021年2月的高点以来，恒生指数首先经历了3-6月份的平台期，在29000点的位置维持震荡。2021年7月开始下跌，到2022年3月触底。恒生指数目前在20000-23000点低位震荡。从宏观角度看，中国经济在第二季度触底，第三季度宏观面将有望实现V型反转。从微观的角度看，港股市场公司业绩的下修趋势已经从2021年7月持续一整年至今。随着二季度业绩期的来临，我们认为业绩下修有望在静默期前大体完成，市场对公司的预期有望随着业绩期的结束企稳。就目前来看，我们认为港股已经积累了较强的反弹势能。下半年将面临两种可能性：1.港股在三季度有所反弹。那么我们的建议则是投资者可以考虑在三季度完成布局和止盈的动作，在第四季度谨慎观望。2.港股在三季度维持低位震荡走势。那么我们认为港股将在宏观经济风险出清后，在今年四季度实现U型反转。无论哪一种情况发生，我们对投资者的建议均是在三季度做好布局。港股三季度反弹逻辑与主推行业我们认为港股的反弹逻辑有以下四个，前两个是主要逻辑，后两个是补充逻辑：1.估值修复逻辑。与美股相同，前期跌幅比较大，但是业绩预期下修幅度不及跌幅的，便存在估值修复的空间。2.风险偏好切换逻辑。我们发现，在大盘的高位，高增速的公司具有更大的估值优势；在大盘低位，高增速公司的估值溢价则减少。因此，从全局的角度看，在市场从低位向高位反弹时，高增速公司将会受益于市场风险偏好切换带来的估值提升。我们将此称为“风险偏好指针”。3.股份回购逻辑。正如我们早前发布的《港股股份回购专题研究-回购数据抄底策略——利用集体的智慧》（2022年4月27日）提到，我们认为上市企业在宏观层面已经发出了信号：它们认为自身股价在恒生指数23000点的位置已经被低估。尽管后期又发生了俄乌军事冲突和上海新冠疫情两起黑天鹅事件，但我们相信大多数国内企业的长期价值不会有较大幅度的改变。我们可以去寻找在本轮下跌中回购量较大的公司进行投资，因为它们的前景更多地受到了公司管理层的背书。在微观层面，这是一条次要逻辑，建议与上面两条主要逻辑结合使用。4.AH股溢价逻辑。目前，沪港AH溢价指数已经处于港股通开通以来的顶部位置，有一定的回调势能。我们认为AH两地上市，同时溢价处于历史高位的股票也值得投资者考虑。这是一条次要逻辑。综上四条反弹逻辑，我们的重点推荐如下：1.首要推荐医疗保健下除化学药以外的各个子板块。尤其重点推荐CXO和生物药板块。它们兼具估值修复空间和高增长预期，同时受益于前两条反弹逻辑。2.其次推荐信息技术下的半导体板块。这个板块兼具估值修复空间与风险偏好切换逻辑，唯独要警惕部分个股在2022-2023年业绩前高后低的风险。3.此外推荐新能源车和媒体中的广告板块。它们具备较高的增速预期，属于新兴行业，或将受益于风险偏好切换。4.最后，我们推荐互联网公司，它们是港股中备受关注的核心个股，很可能成为港股反弹的旗手。5.我们推荐的个股涵盖了恒生科技指数的大部分成分股。因此，我们在指数层面推荐恒生科技。逻辑一：估值修复逻辑与我们在美股使用的估值修复逻辑相似，如果一支股票/一个行业的业绩预期下调幅度小于股价下跌幅度，那么在反弹中便存在估值修复的空间。我们对股价的涨跌幅统一采用了+31%（31%是2021年下半年至今样本股票的平均跌幅）的处理，以区分跌幅大于和小于普遍情况的公司。计算估值修复空间时，对于有稳定盈利的公司，我们以利润预期变动为准，对于不能稳定盈利的公司，我们以营收预期为准。根据数据，我们就估值修复逻辑对以下行业做出推荐：1.医疗保健下的多个子板块。我们重点推荐CXO和生物药板块，这些公司在前期普遍经历了股价的大幅回撤，但是业绩预期方面却有所上调。此外，医药保健设备与服务板块也有充裕的估值修复空间。2.信息技术下的两个子板块。半导体行业内分化较大，中芯国际（981 HK）与华虹半导体（1347 HK）的估值修复空间比较充裕。科技硬件主要是小米和联想，样本量小，不作板块推荐。3.可选消费下的经销商、工业下的建筑产品样本量太小，不作赘述；工业下的海运前期跌幅中位数偏低，反弹逻辑下没有操作空间，不作推荐。逻辑二：风险偏好切换逻辑我们对比了两个时间点的预期营收2年CAGR和当时的PS（使用营收和PS主要是为了涵盖未盈利的公司），这两个时间点分别为2021年2月末——恒生指数的高位，和当前。我们发现，当市场位于高点时，高增长股票的估值优势会被放大；而当市场下行时，高增长股票的估值优势会被缩小。我们认为这主要是市场风险偏好切换所致。从图像的角度来看，不同时间点的股票预期-估值回归线看起来经过了旋转，故我们称之为“风险偏好指针”。2021年2月至今，“风险偏好指针”随着大盘的下行顺时针旋转，高增长个股的估值优势被削弱；反之，当大盘出现反弹机会时，我们认为这些高增长个股也将受益于“风险偏好指针”的逆时针旋转，在估值层面受益于风险偏好的上升。结合三季度基本面改善的预期，高增长个股则有望迎来戴维斯双击。从行业的角度来看，以下行业目前具有较高的增速预期：1.可选消费下的汽车。汽车板块主要受益于部分参与了新能源车市场的企业，传统汽车制造企业的增速则比较低。所以我们建议投资者锁定新能源车，而非所有车企。2.信息技术下的半导体板块。除个别个股外，普遍具有较为乐观的营收CAGR预期。但是，我们建议投资者挑选半导体公司时要注意业绩前高后低的风险。3.医疗保健下的多个子板块，尤其是生物药。除了制药板块外，医疗保健板块均呈现出喜人的增势。制药子板块增速较低，主要是受到了传统化学药企业的拖累。4.通信服务下的媒体板块，尤其是广告公司的业绩增速预期较高。5.可选消费下的酒店餐饮和工业下的航空公司子板块均有较高的增速预期，但它们都是受益于疫情修复逻辑的传统行业。虽然增速预期较高，但未必会受益于风险偏好的上升。逻辑三：股份回购逻辑我们在早先发布的专题报告《港股股份回购专题研究-回购数据抄底策略——利用集体的智慧》（2022年4月27日）中对公司的回购行为与大盘和个股的关系进行了研究。我们认为，公司前期的回购行为也是一个加分项，可以理解为公司对自身股票进行的“抄底”。在前两项更加重要的反弹逻辑具备的情况下，公司的回购行为为我们提供了进一步保障。但这是一条次要逻辑，我们建议投资者仅将其作为一个有益补充。逻辑四：AH股溢价逻辑港股通于2014年11月开通，我们观察2015年以来的AH股溢价情况，发现AH股溢价目前已经触及高位，向上突破了+1标准差水平相当一段距离。对于AH两地上市的公司来说，我们认为AH股溢价处于高位也有助于相关公司的H股实现股价反弹。但是，我们总体上认为这个逻辑不足以单独支撑AH两地上市公司创造超额收益，我们建议投资者在结合前两条主要反弹逻辑的基础上在AH两地上市的公司中优中择优。有相关重叠的标的包括生物药、CXO公司，部分新能源汽车产业链公司，以及少量半导体公司风险提示疫情发展的不确定性；企业业绩不及预期的风险；国际政治经济突发事件；美联储预期外的货币政策风格。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"HSCEI":0.9,"HSI":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"HSTECH":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"HSCCI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1636,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9078610957,"gmtCreate":1657676439379,"gmtModify":1676536044469,"author":{"id":"3572683426659077","authorId":"3572683426659077","name":"haiwei183","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1cae291bddff5a30eeb96060074d8531","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3572683426659077","authorIdStr":"3572683426659077"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"look","listText":"look","text":"look","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9078610957","repostId":"1110905137","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1449,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}