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haiwei183

haiwei183

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04-30

$Grab Holdings(GRAB)$ good

2022-02-27

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Chinese faces in Ukraine, how are they doing now

2022-07-07

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An article summarizes the important highlights of the minutes of the overnight Fed meeting!

2022-06-25

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Sorry, the original content has been removed

2022-03-27

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China Internet Fog: What do you believe in?

2022-03-26

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2022-06-13

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Foreign media headlines | Highlight! Fed rate hike Storm Continues

2023-12-21

Good game join join

2022-07-30

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How to trade US and Hong Kong stocks in Q3? Finding the intersection of bounce logic

2022-07-13

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2022-05-22

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Last night and this morning | S&P bear mouth escaped! Dow Jones Industrial Average hits longest losing streak in nearly a century

2022-04-27

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Sorry, the original content has been removed

2022-03-25

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BlackRock's letter to investors: The era of globalization is over, and supply chain reshaping will push up inflation

2022-06-26

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Opinion | The historical relationship between recession risk and the bear market in US stocks

2022-06-08

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2022-05-31

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2022-05-05

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The Federal Reserve rate hike 50 basis points as scheduled and announced that it would start shrinking balance sheet from June 1

2022-03-23

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Hawkish Fed officials are out in force, and U.S. debt hits worst quarterly performance in nearly 40 years

2022-01-18

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Fed rate hike, $7 trillion waiting to buy the bottom?

2022-11-23

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Pessimistic expectations have been digested! A good opportunity on the left side of chip stocks is coming

Go to Tiger App to see more news

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15:03","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Chinese faces in Ukraine, how are they doing now","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2214180192","media":"经济观察报","summary":"留学并留在乌克兰的中国人不在少数。","content":"<p><div>(Photo source: Oriental IC) Reporter: Xie Chuchu Song Di evacuated At around 6 a.m. local time on February 24, Roland was awakened by the sound of a phone call. Her friend told her that the war had begun and told her to evacuate Kiev. She quickly told her family to get up and pack their clothes and bags, and ran to the west with a few students. On February 24, Beijing time, Russian President Vladimir Putin decided to conduct military operations in Donbas. On the same day, explosions were heard in Kiev, the capital of Ukraine, and other cities. Just as Roland was loading his luggage in the trunk, a military plane roared overhead. Roland was shocked and hurriedly set off on his way. \"This is the closest I've ever been to a war.\"...</p><p><a href=\"\">Web link</a></div></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Chinese faces in Ukraine, how are they doing now</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nChinese faces in Ukraine, how are they doing now\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1014835943\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/53947f6c3e232c366cc0bd0fd311397d);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">经济观察报 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-02-26 15:03</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><div>(Photo source: Oriental IC) Reporter: Xie Chuchu Song Di evacuated At around 6 a.m. local time on February 24, Roland was awakened by the sound of a phone call. Her friend told her that the war had begun and told her to evacuate Kiev. She quickly told her family to get up and pack their clothes and bags, and ran to the west with a few students. On February 24, Beijing time, Russian President Vladimir Putin decided to conduct military operations in Donbas. On the same day, explosions were heard in Kiev, the capital of Ukraine, and other cities. Just as Roland was loading his luggage in the trunk, a military plane roared overhead. Roland was shocked and hurriedly set off on his way. \"This is the closest I've ever been to a war.\"...</p><p><a href=\"\">Web link</a></div></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1b6f0ea65681c95c05fc970eb3496d5d","relate_stocks":{"000001.SH":"上证指数"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2214180192","content_text":"（图片来源：东方IC）记者：谢楚楚 宋笛撤离当地时间2月24日早上6点多，罗兰被电话声吵醒，朋友告诉她战争开始了，让她最好撤离基辅。她赶紧叫家人起来收拾衣服、打包行李，带着几个学生，奔往西部。北京时间2月24日，俄罗斯总统普京决定在顿巴斯进行军事行动，同日，乌克兰首都基辅等城市传出爆炸声。就在罗兰往后备箱装行李时，一架军事飞机从头顶轰鸣而过，罗兰心中一惊，赶忙启程上路。“这是我离战争最近的一次。”罗兰说。小心翼翼，一路向西，罗兰看到了坦克部队在对面逆向而过，沿途的加油站排起了长队，“只能付现金”。直到当晚抵达位于乌克兰西北部的罗夫诺州，罗兰才安顿下来，四周静悄悄的，没有了枪炮的声音，但一家人依然睡得心惊胆战。罗兰对战争的爆发早有预期，经历过2014年乌克兰革命的罗兰颇具警觉性，此前数天，她就已经把家里的护照和文件收拾妥当，并储备了一定的食物和生活用品。与警觉的罗兰不同，一些在乌华人没有选择逃离基辅。一位在乌克兰从事医药贸易的华人告诉经济观察报，她昨晚一夜没睡，躲在防空洞里，一直到2月25日下午才敢回家中收拾东西，准备撤侨回国。截稿前，这位华人又回到地下车库躲避，当地已经实行宵禁，因为车库信号不好，她在出车库临时回复国内长辈信息时才抽空告知记者她的现状，随后又匆匆赶回车库。2月22日，中国驻乌克兰大使馆网站发出了一份请中国公民注意安全的提醒，提醒中提及“乌克兰东部局势发生重大变化”，2月24日又一次发布该提醒；2月25日，大使馆发布紧急通知请拟自乌克兰撤离中国公民进行登记，通知表示为准备分批包机接返有关事宜，现开始人员登记。搭乘包机根据自愿原则。包机派出时间根据飞行安全情况确定，届时将提前通知。李牧之已经下定决心，不打算撤离，他还不清楚大使馆会怎样安排相关人员，比如资费、隔离政策等，他觉得如果要隔离“14+7”天，那还不如留在这里。李牧之乐观地判断，目前局势不太会影响到普通老百姓和居民，回国的必要性不大。李牧之是一位赴乌克兰留学的中国学生。2月24日凌晨四五点左右，睡梦中的李牧之被国内亲戚朋友频繁发来的信息轰炸至醒。在亲戚朋友口中得知俄罗斯将对乌克兰发起军事攻击之后，他决定下楼看看具体情况，因为他并没有听到任何大的动静。李牧之住在距离基辅市中心不远的地方。当地时间24日下午，李牧之来到基辅市中心街道，发现一些媒体在做采访，街上人变少了，除了卖衣服的大型商场、KFC、麦当劳等饮食餐厅关门之外，大型超市、医院、银行、药店未关门。但各个地方都需要排队。在前往市中心了解情况时，李牧之发现地铁是免费开放的，地铁上能看到一些人已经打包好行李准备离开，周边社区出现了少数穿制服的警察，但未看到士兵。他听说，基辅有些人选择了去其他城市避难，有些人选择了在防空洞里面睡觉。“但我们就在家待着，绝大多数人还是在家里待着”。王旭就是在家呆着的其中一位，他在乌克兰的哈尔科夫市，“炮弹不长眼，也不知道安全不安全”，在截稿前一个半小时，还发生了一场持续两三分钟的空袭，王旭赶紧把食物转移到车库内，地下车库聚集了很多邻居。此外，乌克兰已经进入战争状态，按照当地法律，军队有权征用车辆，王旭也不打算去其他的城市，“最好还是呆在家里”。李牧之的一位朋友住在敖德萨，这也是俄军所涉之处。听闻局势动荡，李牧之的朋友也拿起了单反相机外出拍摄记录。他告诉李牧之，外面一切安好。生计与生活直到2月24日，王旭觉得在乌克兰的一切都在正常进行，尽管与俄罗斯矛盾已经持续了若干年。2007年，王旭来到乌克兰留学，因为“当地的留学费用毕竟低一些”，毕业后，王旭留在了一家中国企业的乌克兰分公司，从事机床零件贸易，主要做的是俄语区的贸易。他的妻子是乌克兰人，哈尔科夫是一座“说大不大，说小不小”的城市，上班之外，周末的时间就是和朋友聚会，在附近的商场转一转。像王旭这样，留学并留在乌克兰的中国人不在少数。2009年，因为家里企业和乌克兰有合作，罗兰来到乌克兰留学，毕业后留在了当地，与一名中国留学生相识相爱，走入婚姻。罗兰对教育很感兴趣，在大学毕业后，罗兰和朋友因缘际会下创业，做了一家留学机构，这两年公司发展还不错。目前，罗兰一家在基辅买了房和车，两个孩子也在基辅上学，一个5岁，一个3岁，一家人保持中国国籍。疫情之前，他们一年回中国一到两次，疫情后回国不太方便。战争打响后，罗兰被朋友拉入一些华人互助群，群里互相交换信息提供帮助，比如有人会报安全的防空洞地址，有人要去西部，车上还有空位会在群里问有没有人要拼车。据中国驻乌克兰大使馆发布的信息，在乌中国公民约6000人，包括中资企业、留学生和华侨等，主要分布在基辅、利沃夫、哈尔科夫、敖德萨和苏梅等地。2019年，李牧之曾赴乌克兰旅游，2021年6月底再次来到乌克兰留学，虽然这个国家的“昔日辉煌”已不再，但李牧之还是很喜欢它，他决定在这个国家生活一段时间，“乌克兰人外表生冷，内心火热”，李牧之说。如果战争没有发生，李牧之还能照常约朋友到基辅独立广场碰面，在第聂伯河河边散步。但面对如此局面，李牧之并不感到意外。“2014年到现在，他们小规模的战争其实就没停过，只是双方原来的事态没发展到这么严重。这么多年以来，乌克兰边境地区顿涅茨克和俄罗斯的边境地区，一直在擦枪走火”。贸易网络上的中国面孔2021年5月30日，装载着100个标准集装箱的中欧班列自广州白云大朗铁路货运站启程，目的地是乌克兰第四大城市敖德萨。行程全程为8408公里，预计行驶25天，车辆上满载着割草机、电饭锅、茶叶等货物，货重约646吨，货值1059万元人民币。这是华南地区首趟直达乌克兰的中欧班列，也是中国首列开往敖德萨的中欧班列。自2020年开通以来，中国直达乌克兰的中欧班列已经开行57列。2019年，乌克兰海关统计，该年一季度，乌克兰对华贸易占比超过俄罗斯，中国成为乌克兰的第一大贸易伙伴。在2021年，乌克兰与全球235个国家开展了对外贸易。其中，对中国出口最多，达到80多亿元，其中包括1700多万吨铁矿石，823万吨玉米以及300余万吨大麦；同时又从中国进口了100余亿元商品，主要是三轮车、踏板车、踏板汽车等，还包括电话机、杀虫剂以及箱包日用品等。2022年1月14日，新华社刚刚刊发了一篇题为《2021年中乌务实合作取得丰硕成果——访中国驻乌克兰大使范先荣》的文章，范先荣在接受采访时表示，“2021年中乌务实合作在双边贸易、生产投资、交通往来等多方面亮点纷呈。面对新冠肺炎疫情冲击，双边务实合作展现出强劲韧性和巨大潜力”。俄乌冲突也让国内的贸易商也受到了影响。义乌的部分乌克兰贸易企业已经暂时停摆。义乌小商品城的商户告诉经济观察报，目前市场内不安排做发往乌克兰的货品，即使送到了外贸公司也要拉回来，已经在宁波港口的也准备撤回义乌仓库。另一位长期从事对乌贸易的出口企业也收到了对方暂停发货的通知，“什么时候能恢复，我也预计不到。”他说。乌克兰何时能够恢复常态？尚无人能够给出一个准确的信息，但一些华人已经开始怀念此前平凡而日常的生活。“希望早一天能结束，能恢复一切，如常的平静，对老百姓能正常的生活，我觉得这就够了。”李牧之说。福建商人孙晨来乌克兰27年了，主要做鞋的批发生意。他判断战争很难短时间停下来，因此如果撤侨包机来了，肯定会考虑先回国的，之后就要看当地的情况了。“毕竟在这有车有房的，乌克兰百姓也好，（生活）已经习惯了，这里也算得上是第二个故乡。”孙晨说。王旭也希望在政局稳定后再回来，毕竟积累的业务资源都在这里，如果要离开乌克兰，就意味着要重新开始。罗兰一家人都非常喜欢在乌克兰的生活，不打仗的日子是平凡且幸福的，但她深知，乌克兰并不是一个太平的国度。他们在驱车往西的路上，罗兰收到大使馆的消息，大使馆正在统计回国的人数，罗兰一家人都报名了，目前他们正在等待大使馆通知什么时候、以什么方式回到中国。“如果需要我们就撤，但战争结束后我们还想回来，因为我们的房子、车子和工作都在这里。”罗兰说。（应受访者要求，文中罗兰、孙晨为化名）","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"000001.SH":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":676,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9079381350,"gmtCreate":1657151854270,"gmtModify":1676535958363,"author":{"id":"3572683426659077","authorId":"3572683426659077","name":"haiwei183","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1cae291bddff5a30eeb96060074d8531","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3572683426659077","idStr":"3572683426659077"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"look","listText":"look","text":"look","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9079381350","repostId":"1177613805","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1177613805","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1657148501,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1177613805?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-07-07 07:01","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"An article summarizes the important highlights of the minutes of the overnight Fed meeting!","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1177613805","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"摘要：6月会上美联储官员认为，7月会议可能适合加息75个基点或50个基点；通胀降至2%需要时间，加息可能导致一段时间经济放缓，但充分就业的关键是降通胀；目前有高通胀根深蒂固的风险，担心5月CPI暗示通","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Summary: At the June meeting, Fed officials believe that the July meeting may be suitable for a rate hike of 75 basis points or 50 basis points; It will take time for inflation to drop to 2%, and rate hike may lead to a period of economic slowdown, but the key to full employment is to reduce inflation; At present, there is a deep-rooted risk of high inflation, and there is concern that the May CPI suggests that inflation will last longer than previously expected; If inflation expectations get out of control, reducing inflation will pay a higher price. Minutes of the meeting released on Wednesday, July 6, Eastern Time showed that at the June monetary policy meeting, Federal Reserve officials admitted that rate hike may lead to a slowdown in economic growth, but believed that it may take a longer rate hike to prevent high inflation from becoming entrenched. Because the outlook for inflation has deteriorated, interest rates need to be raised to restrictive levels that deliberately slow down the economy.</p><p>At the same time, the minutes confirmed that the Fed will discuss at this month's meeting whether to continue the rate hike by 75 basis points or slow it down to 50 basis points.</p><p>According to media comments, some investors believe that the hawkish stance reiterated by the Federal Reserve at its June meeting is outdated, considering that recent data shows that economic growth is slightly slower. This pushed U.S. stocks higher during the session, and the three major indexes that turned down more than once during the session completely got rid of the decline.</p><p>July meeting to consider whether to rate hike another 75 basis points</p><p>The Federal Reserve's June meeting decided on a 75 basis point rate hike, the strongest rate hike in more than 27 years. The minutes of this meeting showed that almost all Fed policymakers agreed to June because the labor market supply is very tight, inflation is much higher than the inflation target of the Federal Reserve's Monetary Policy Committee FOMC of 2%, and the recent inflation outlook has deteriorated since the May Fed meeting. rate hike was 75 basis points, and only one voted against rate hike 50 basis points.</p><p>When discussing possible policy actions at future meetings, the participating officials still expect that it is appropriate to continue the rate hike in the future. The minutes specifically mentioned:</p><p>Participants decided that the next meeting (Wall Street News Note: That is<b>July meeting</b>）<b>Could fit rate hike 75 basis points or 50 basis points</b>。<b>Attendees</b>It is agreed that the economic outlook guarantees a restrictive stance on (monetary) policy. And they<b>Recognize that if high inflationary pressures persist, the stance may even be more restrictive</b>(even more restrictive). It will take time for inflation to fall to 2% rate hike could lead to a period of economic slowdown</p><p>The minutes showed that at the June meeting, Fed policymakers predicted that it would take time to reduce inflation, and that lowering inflation would come at a price of possible slowdown in economic growth.</p><p>Participants believe that the Russia-Ukraine conflict, China's epidemic prevention and other factors that restrict the supply environment will affect the inflation outlook, and it may take some time for inflation to fall back to the Fed's target. Participants also determined that maintaining a strong labor market in the process of reducing inflation to 2% will depend on many factors affecting supply and demand. Participants recognized that firm policies could slow economic growth for some time, but they expected that bringing inflation back to 2% was the key to achieving sustained full employment. There are deep-rooted risks of high inflation, concerns that May CPI suggests inflation lasts longer than previously expected</p><p>According to the minutes, Fed policymakers at the meeting believed that since inflation is much higher than the Fed's target level, the Fed needs to change to a restrictive policy stance to achieve the dual goals of full employment and price stability. Moreover, from a risk management perspective, because once inflation is higher than expected, the Fed can be in a better position to strengthen its restrictive efforts.</p><p>many participants judged that,<b>Now the big risk for the (FOMC) committee is</b>，<b>If the public begins to doubt whether the Committee can ensure its determination to adjust its policy stance, high inflation may become deeply ingrained.</b>In this regard, participants stressed that appropriately firm monetary policy, coupled with clear and effective communication, are essential to restoring price stability. In terms of inflation, Fed officials at the meeting pointed out that inflation is still too high and continues to be well above the long-term target of 2%.</p><p>Attendees<b>worry</b>，<b>May CPI data suggests inflationary pressures have not shown signs of abating</b>。 Many people (a number of) treat this as<b>Reinforces the view that inflation will be more persistent than they previously expected</b>。 Inflation has upside risks such as rising commodity prices. If inflation expectations get out of control, inflation will pay a higher price</p><p>When assessing the economy, Fed officials attending the meeting emphasized that they are very concerned about inflation risks and closely monitor inflation and developments related to inflation expectations.</p><p>Most participants believed that the risk of inflation was on the upside side, citing a variety of related risks, including ongoing supply bottlenecks and rising energy and commodity prices. Participants determined that the uncertainty of economic growth in the next few years is high.</p><p>Most participants assessed that the outlook for economic growth has downside risks. The downside risks include that further tightening of the financial environment will have a greater negative impact on economic activities than expected, and the impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict and China's epidemic prevention on economic growth. The impact exceeded expectations.</p><p>On inflation expectations, the minutes showed that,</p><p>While indicators of long-term inflation expectations from household surveys, professional forecasters and market participants are generally consistent with the FOMC Committee's long-term inflation target of 2%,<b>Many participants are worried that long-term inflation expectations may begin to rise to levels that are not in line with the 2% target. These participants pointed out that if inflation expectations get out of control, it will cost more to let inflation fall back to the FOMC target</b>。 Market reaction</p><p>After the minutes of the Federal Reserve meeting were released at midday, U.S. stocks first fell back and then soon rose in the short term. The three major U.S. stock indexes all rose intraday.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c7d417276ecc91e848c333fe109e392e\" tg-width=\"725\" tg-height=\"489\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>The US Dollar Index fluctuated upward, breaking through 107.00 in the short term and then quickly returning to 107.00, approaching the high since December 2002 set by US stocks approaching 107.30 in early trading.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0996cbbf2789acffe0ee8b062ca07b1e\" tg-width=\"714\" tg-height=\"485\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury Bond yield maintained its upward trend. After the minutes were released, it stood at 2.90%. It once rose above 2.92% to set a new daily high. The intraday increase exceeded 10 basis points, which was higher than the intraday test of 2.75% in European stocks on Wednesday. It has rebounded by about 17 basis points from a low in more than one month.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7fdc9bfee7abd837e8a41feed40e5761\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"483\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p></body></html></p>","source":"highlight_wallstreetcn","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>An article summarizes the important highlights of the minutes of the overnight Fed meeting!</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAn article summarizes the important highlights of the minutes of the overnight Fed meeting!\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-07-07 07:01</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Summary: At the June meeting, Fed officials believe that the July meeting may be suitable for a rate hike of 75 basis points or 50 basis points; It will take time for inflation to drop to 2%, and rate hike may lead to a period of economic slowdown, but the key to full employment is to reduce inflation; At present, there is a deep-rooted risk of high inflation, and there is concern that the May CPI suggests that inflation will last longer than previously expected; If inflation expectations get out of control, reducing inflation will pay a higher price. Minutes of the meeting released on Wednesday, July 6, Eastern Time showed that at the June monetary policy meeting, Federal Reserve officials admitted that rate hike may lead to a slowdown in economic growth, but believed that it may take a longer rate hike to prevent high inflation from becoming entrenched. Because the outlook for inflation has deteriorated, interest rates need to be raised to restrictive levels that deliberately slow down the economy.</p><p>At the same time, the minutes confirmed that the Fed will discuss at this month's meeting whether to continue the rate hike by 75 basis points or slow it down to 50 basis points.</p><p>According to media comments, some investors believe that the hawkish stance reiterated by the Federal Reserve at its June meeting is outdated, considering that recent data shows that economic growth is slightly slower. This pushed U.S. stocks higher during the session, and the three major indexes that turned down more than once during the session completely got rid of the decline.</p><p>July meeting to consider whether to rate hike another 75 basis points</p><p>The Federal Reserve's June meeting decided on a 75 basis point rate hike, the strongest rate hike in more than 27 years. The minutes of this meeting showed that almost all Fed policymakers agreed to June because the labor market supply is very tight, inflation is much higher than the inflation target of the Federal Reserve's Monetary Policy Committee FOMC of 2%, and the recent inflation outlook has deteriorated since the May Fed meeting. rate hike was 75 basis points, and only one voted against rate hike 50 basis points.</p><p>When discussing possible policy actions at future meetings, the participating officials still expect that it is appropriate to continue the rate hike in the future. The minutes specifically mentioned:</p><p>Participants decided that the next meeting (Wall Street News Note: That is<b>July meeting</b>）<b>Could fit rate hike 75 basis points or 50 basis points</b>。<b>Attendees</b>It is agreed that the economic outlook guarantees a restrictive stance on (monetary) policy. And they<b>Recognize that if high inflationary pressures persist, the stance may even be more restrictive</b>(even more restrictive). It will take time for inflation to fall to 2% rate hike could lead to a period of economic slowdown</p><p>The minutes showed that at the June meeting, Fed policymakers predicted that it would take time to reduce inflation, and that lowering inflation would come at a price of possible slowdown in economic growth.</p><p>Participants believe that the Russia-Ukraine conflict, China's epidemic prevention and other factors that restrict the supply environment will affect the inflation outlook, and it may take some time for inflation to fall back to the Fed's target. Participants also determined that maintaining a strong labor market in the process of reducing inflation to 2% will depend on many factors affecting supply and demand. Participants recognized that firm policies could slow economic growth for some time, but they expected that bringing inflation back to 2% was the key to achieving sustained full employment. There are deep-rooted risks of high inflation, concerns that May CPI suggests inflation lasts longer than previously expected</p><p>According to the minutes, Fed policymakers at the meeting believed that since inflation is much higher than the Fed's target level, the Fed needs to change to a restrictive policy stance to achieve the dual goals of full employment and price stability. Moreover, from a risk management perspective, because once inflation is higher than expected, the Fed can be in a better position to strengthen its restrictive efforts.</p><p>many participants judged that,<b>Now the big risk for the (FOMC) committee is</b>，<b>If the public begins to doubt whether the Committee can ensure its determination to adjust its policy stance, high inflation may become deeply ingrained.</b>In this regard, participants stressed that appropriately firm monetary policy, coupled with clear and effective communication, are essential to restoring price stability. In terms of inflation, Fed officials at the meeting pointed out that inflation is still too high and continues to be well above the long-term target of 2%.</p><p>Attendees<b>worry</b>，<b>May CPI data suggests inflationary pressures have not shown signs of abating</b>。 Many people (a number of) treat this as<b>Reinforces the view that inflation will be more persistent than they previously expected</b>。 Inflation has upside risks such as rising commodity prices. If inflation expectations get out of control, inflation will pay a higher price</p><p>When assessing the economy, Fed officials attending the meeting emphasized that they are very concerned about inflation risks and closely monitor inflation and developments related to inflation expectations.</p><p>Most participants believed that the risk of inflation was on the upside side, citing a variety of related risks, including ongoing supply bottlenecks and rising energy and commodity prices. Participants determined that the uncertainty of economic growth in the next few years is high.</p><p>Most participants assessed that the outlook for economic growth has downside risks. The downside risks include that further tightening of the financial environment will have a greater negative impact on economic activities than expected, and the impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict and China's epidemic prevention on economic growth. The impact exceeded expectations.</p><p>On inflation expectations, the minutes showed that,</p><p>While indicators of long-term inflation expectations from household surveys, professional forecasters and market participants are generally consistent with the FOMC Committee's long-term inflation target of 2%,<b>Many participants are worried that long-term inflation expectations may begin to rise to levels that are not in line with the 2% target. These participants pointed out that if inflation expectations get out of control, it will cost more to let inflation fall back to the FOMC target</b>。 Market reaction</p><p>After the minutes of the Federal Reserve meeting were released at midday, U.S. stocks first fell back and then soon rose in the short term. The three major U.S. stock indexes all rose intraday.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c7d417276ecc91e848c333fe109e392e\" tg-width=\"725\" tg-height=\"489\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>The US Dollar Index fluctuated upward, breaking through 107.00 in the short term and then quickly returning to 107.00, approaching the high since December 2002 set by US stocks approaching 107.30 in early trading.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0996cbbf2789acffe0ee8b062ca07b1e\" tg-width=\"714\" tg-height=\"485\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury Bond yield maintained its upward trend. After the minutes were released, it stood at 2.90%. It once rose above 2.92% to set a new daily high. The intraday increase exceeded 10 basis points, which was higher than the intraday test of 2.75% in European stocks on Wednesday. It has rebounded by about 17 basis points from a low in more than one month.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7fdc9bfee7abd837e8a41feed40e5761\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"483\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3664052\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/123472eab1159c5e881f8e540a346014","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3664052","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/cc96873d3d23ee6ac10685520df9c100","article_id":"1177613805","content_text":"摘要：6月会上美联储官员认为，7月会议可能适合加息75个基点或50个基点；通胀降至2%需要时间，加息可能导致一段时间经济放缓，但充分就业的关键是降通胀；目前有高通胀根深蒂固的风险，担心5月CPI暗示通胀会比之前预期持续得更久；若通胀预期失控，降通胀将付出更高代价。美东时间7月6日周三公布的会议纪要显示，6月货币政策会议上，美联储官员承认加息可能导致经济增长放慢，但认为，要避免高通胀变得根深蒂固，可能需要加息时间持续更久。因为通胀前景已恶化，需要让利率升至刻意让经济放缓的限制性水平。同时纪要确认了，联储将在本月的会议上讨论是继续加息75个基点，还是将幅度放缓到50个基点。媒体评论称，考虑到新近数据显示经济增长略为更加放缓，一些投资者认为，美联储在6月会上重申的鹰派立场已经过时。这推动美股盘中走高，盘中不止一次转跌的三大指数彻底摆脱跌势。7月会议考虑是否再加息75个基点美联储6月会议决定加息75个基点，为逾二十七年最大力度加息。本次会议纪要显示，因为考虑到劳动力市场供应非常紧张、通胀远高于美联储货币政策委员会FOMC的通胀目标2%、近期通胀前景自5月联储会议以来已经恶化，几乎所有联储决策者都同意6月加息75个基点，只有一人因支持加息50个基点而投反对票。在讨论未来几次会议可能采取的政策行动时，与会官员依然预期适合未来继续加息，纪要特别提到：与会者判定，下次会议（华尔街见闻注：即7月会议）可能适合加息75个基点或者50个基点。与会者一致认为，经济前景对（货币）政策步入限制性的立场有保障。而且他们认识到，如果高企的通胀压力持续，立场甚至可能要限制性更强（even more restrictive）。通胀降至2%需要时间 加息可能导致一段时间经济放缓纪要显示，6月会上，美联储决策者预计降低通胀需要时间，而且压低通胀将付出经济增长可能放缓的代价。与会者认为，俄乌冲突、中国防疫和其他限制供应环境的因素将影响通胀前景，让通胀回落到联储目标可能需要一些时间。与会者还判定，在让通胀降至2%的过程中，保持强劲的劳动力市场将取决于很多影响供需的因素。与会者认识到，坚定政策可能让经济增长一段时间内放缓，但他们预计，让通胀回到2%是实现持续充分就业的关键。有高通胀根深蒂固的风险 担心5月CPI暗示通胀比之前预期持续得更久纪要称，与会美联储决策者认为，由于通胀远高于联储目标水平，要实现充分就业和价格稳定的双重目标，美联储需要转变为限制性的政策立场。而且，从风险管理的角度看，因为一旦通胀高于预期，美联储就能处于加强限制性力度的更有利地位。很多（many）与会者判定，现在（FOMC）委员会面临的一大风险是，假如公众开始怀疑委员会能否确保调整政策立场的决心，高企的通胀可能变得根深蒂固。在这方面，与会者强调，适宜地坚定货币政策，加之清晰有效的沟通，都对恢复价格稳定至关重要。在通胀方面，与会联储官员指出，通胀仍旧太高，继续远高于长期目标2%。与会者担心，5月CPI数据暗示，通胀压力还未显示减弱的迹象。多人（a number of）将此视为强化了通胀会比他们之前预期的更持久这一观点。通胀有大宗商品涨价等上行风险 若通胀预期失控 降通胀将付出更高代价在评估经济时，与会美联储官员强调，他们非常关注通胀风险，密切监控通胀以及通胀预期相关的发展变化。大多数与会者认为通胀的风险偏上行，并提到多种相关风险，包括持续的供应瓶颈、能源和大宗商品价格上涨。与会者认定，未来几年经济增长的不确定性很高。大部分与会者评估认为，经济增长的前景有偏下行的风险，下行风险包括，金融环境进一步收紧会对经济活动造成比预期更大的负面影响，以及俄乌冲突和中国防疫对经济增长的影响超出预期。在通胀预期方面，纪要显示，虽然来自家庭调查、专业预测方和市场参与者的长期通胀预期指标总体和FOMC委员会的长期通胀目标2%保持一致，但很多与会者担心，长期通胀预期可能开始上行至不符合2%目标的水平。这些与会者指出，假如通胀预期变得失控，让通胀回落到FOMC目标将付出更高的代价。市场反应午盘时段美联储会议纪要公布后，美股先回落后很快短线拉升，三大美股指盘中齐涨。美元指数震荡上行，短线下破107.00后迅速重上107.00，逼近美股早盘时逼近107.30所创的2002年12月以来高位。基准10年期美国国债收益率保持升势，纪要公布后站上2.90%，一度升破2.92%刷新日高，日内升幅超过10个基点，较周三欧股盘中下测2.75%所创的一个多月来低位回升约17个基点。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":669,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9048063807,"gmtCreate":1656119565809,"gmtModify":1676535770826,"author":{"id":"3572683426659077","authorId":"3572683426659077","name":"haiwei183","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1cae291bddff5a30eeb96060074d8531","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3572683426659077","idStr":"3572683426659077"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"look","listText":"look","text":"look","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9048063807","repostId":"1182322747","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":726,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9010878503,"gmtCreate":1648346698121,"gmtModify":1676534329574,"author":{"id":"3572683426659077","authorId":"3572683426659077","name":"haiwei183","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1cae291bddff5a30eeb96060074d8531","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3572683426659077","idStr":"3572683426659077"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"look","listText":"look","text":"look","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9010878503","repostId":"1104202250","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1104202250","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1648340339,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1104202250?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-03-27 08:18","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"China Internet Fog: What do you believe in?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1104202250","media":"远川投资评论","summary":"这些年，机构苦口婆心教育基民“越跌越买”，但似乎只有中概互联，能让大家一边痛骂不如改名“中丐互怜”，一边乖乖掏钱。2021年2月18日，（易方达）中概互联网ETF场内价格创出历史新高。当时，这只基金的","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>In recent years, institutions have worked hard to educate Christians to \"buy more and more\", but it seems that only Zhonggai Internet can make everyone scold and change its name to \"Mutual Pity of Chinese Beggars\" while paying obediently.</p><p>On February 18, 2021, the on-site price of (E Fund) Zhonggai Internet ETF hit a record high. At that time, the share of this fund was less than 3.5 billion shares, and the product was far less famous than it is now. Unexpectedly, during the subsequent decline in net value and on-market prices, the share of this fund increased instead of decreasing, increasing more than 10 times in more than a year, approaching 35.5 billion shares. (Bank of Communications) Zhonggai Internet LOF, (GF) Zhonggai Internet ETF, Hang Seng Technology ETF and other index funds that can invest in Hong Kong stocks and the Internet have achieved a great leap forward during this period.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/002c4daa1600178dc042fd90aa7fe201\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"840\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Investors who are accustomed to conspiracy theories will think without hesitation that 80% of these \"suicidal\" bargain-hunting behaviors are luring leeks to go deeper. Actually, it's not.</p><p>Wind data shows that when the share and scale of (E Fund) Zhonggai Internet ETF are rising against the trend, the proportion of institutional holdings is rising slightly, and the proportion of internal holdings is also rising slightly. This shows that not only institutional funds, but also insiders of fund companies Personnel are also constantly buying bottoms during the decline of Chinese concept stocks.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/275016ee3f4b499c5320654bfaa41997\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"840\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>When domestic funds are full of enthusiasm for bargain hunting, foreign capital is hit head-on. The 13F report shows that many foreign investors such as Goldman Sachs, Temasek, BlackRock, and JPMorgan Chase have reduced their holdings of leading Chinese concept stocks such as Alibaba. The five Chinese concept stocks were even included in the \"pre-delisting list\" by the US Securities and Exchange Commission. JPMorgan Chase gave a \"sell rating\" to Chinese concept stocks in batches, and the cold ice rain pressed the bulls on the ground and rubbed them repeatedly.</p><p>Some people get on the bus and buy more and more as they fall, while others get off the boat and leave the market at the expense of cutting their meat. The huge differences seem to make the future of Chinese concept stocks even more confusing.</p><p>This article mainly answers the reasons for the decline of Chinese concept stocks and what domestic and foreign funds bought at the bottom. It is divided into three parts:</p><p>1) Reveal: Why did Chinese concept stocks plummet?</p><p>2) Bottom-hunting: domestic funds buy \"platforms\"</p><p>3) Change: Overseas institutions love to play with cars</p><p><b>01. Why did it fall sharply?</b></p><p>\"Just out of ICU, I entered KTV again\", the recent performance of Chinese concept stocks is almost crazy. However, short-lived joy can't soothe the wounded hearts of investors.</p><p>Wind data shows that as of the close on March 21, 231 of the 370 Chinese concept stocks have fallen this year, accounting for 62%; Among them, there are 29 stocks whose stock prices have been cut in half, and Tiandihui and Juhao Mall both fell by nearly 90%. In a market without rise and fall limits, it is so unrestrained when it falls.</p><p>If we count the decline of the stock price from its high point so far, the situation is even more tragic. For example, Alibaba, which currently has the largest market value in the Chinese concept stock market, hit a record high of US $319.32 at the end of October 2020, but now its stock price is less than 1/3 of that at that time, with a drop of as much as 67%, and the lowest during the period fell to US $73.28; Baidu, Pinduoduo and other Chinese concept stocks have all fallen by more than 50% since the high point, and even JD.com, which is more resilient to decline, has fallen by 40%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/693d152af3bc7480f2d07bf9b4e2479d\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1047\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>The stock prices of Internet companies such as Tencent Holdings, Meituan, and Xiaomi listed on the Hong Kong stock market have also been losing ground, falling to the point that shareholders don't even recognize them.</p><p>This round of adjustment of Chinese concept stocks, with a large decline, a long cycle, and a wide scope, is rare in history. The reasons behind it must not be simply explained by performance. Behind the near destruction of the group, there are four words: internal troubles and external troubles.</p><p>As we all know, the biggest \"external trouble\" faced by Chinese concept stocks is the risk of delisting.</p><p>According to the Holding Foreign Companies Accountable Act passed by the U.S. Congress in 2020, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is allowed to delist a foreign listed company from the exchange if it fails to submit the report required by the U.S. Public Company Accounting Oversight Board for three consecutive years; These include the unequal requirement that foreign companies listed in the United States disclose audit papers.</p><p>On March 10 this year, the SEC included five Chinese concept stock companies in the tentative list of the \"Foreign Company Accountability Act\", which once again triggered a wave of selling in Chinese concept stocks and made investors have a more intuitive understanding of the lethality of delisting. feel. The risk of delisting is, in the final analysis, a crisis of confidence, and the pressure on Chinese concept stocks mainly comes from two aspects:</p><p>First, concerns about liquidity discounts. U.S. stocks are a global market with flooding liquidity. The premium of listing in the United States is relatively high, and the financing efficiency is higher; In contrast, the liquidity of Hong Kong stocks is not so abundant, and the premium of listing in Hong Kong is low. After Chinese concept stocks are delisted in the United States, they are transferred to Hong Kong stocks, which tests the ability of domestic investors to undertake, and there may be liquidity discount risks.</p><p>Second, the pressure of US dollar investors to concentrate on selling. At present, there are still a large number of overseas institutions among shareholders of Chinese concept stocks. If these companies delist from the US stock market, it will inevitably trigger a large-scale sell-off by overseas investors.</p><p>The house leaks and it rains all night. The sword of delisting is still hanging, and the tightening of domestic industry regulatory policies has cast an unpredictable shadow over the prospects of Chinese concept stocks.</p><p>In the past year or so, policies such as anti-monopoly in the Internet industry, \"double reduction\" in the education industry, and new regulations on anti-addiction to online games have been introduced one after another. Although the starting point of these policies is good, not to suppress individual industries and enterprises, it takes time for overseas investors to adjust their domestic policy expectations, which can easily lead to short-term market overreaction, sudden drop in risk appetite and panic decline.</p><p>In the communication with some fund managers, I found that there is another voice about the reason for the decline of Chinese concept stocks. Some people think that after years of development, the penetration rate of the Internet is very high, and the development of the industry has entered the second half. In recent years, the growth logic of the Internet industry is that the market is sinking, but the entire industry space may have approached the \"ceiling\". It is expected that the future industry growth rate will peak and fall back.</p><p>In other words, the rapid growth period of the Internet industry has passed, and it will enter a mature period in the future, and the imagination space of valuation has become smaller. Although this view is somewhat \"hindsight\", it undoubtedly aggravates the pessimistic expectations of the market.</p><p>However, delisting, policy supervision, and the peak of industry growth may be only the superficial reasons for the decline of Chinese concept stocks. The deep-seated reason is that the underlying valuation logic has changed.</p><p>When common prosperity is placed in an important position, when economic development changes from high speed to high quality, and the distribution system also shifts from giving priority to efficiency to taking into account fairness, in this context, the market valuation system may be reshaped.</p><p>The ghost story that firm holders of Chinese concept stocks are most afraid of hearing is that the Internet will become a public utility. As we all know, technology stocks tend to grow fast, have huge industry space, and the market is willing to give them high valuations; On the contrary, public utility companies are not so sexy in terms of performance growth rate or industry space. If this change really happens, Internet companies are bound to encounter the double-kill pressure of performance and valuation.</p><p>Compared with the simple and straightforward performance, the company's valuation is too vague, which is often a matter of opinion. The biggest problem currently encountered by Internet companies is how much they are worth and how to give valuations when the market environment changes drastically. Market participants have not yet reached a consensus, and there is no reference standard. In the view of Jiang Cheng of Zhongtai Asset Management, the reason behind it is the absence of \"value anchor\".</p><p>Although the haze of delisting has not dissipated, and the original valuation logic may be overturned and started over, in the face of Internet companies whose stock prices are frequently cut in half and whose valuations have entered historically low ranges, bargain-hunting funds can be described as going forward one after another.</p><p><b>02. Domestic capital buying platform</b></p><p>Deng Xiaofeng, chief investment officer of Gaoyi Assets, shared his views on the Internet industry when communicating with investors online at the beginning of this year.</p><p>In his view, the Internet industry is similar to the liquor industry in 2012 and 2013. At that time, affected by the \"eight regulations\" and the \"plasticizer\" incident, liquor stocks continued to adjust and did not begin to recover until 2016, but this did not hinder the long-term high returns of this industry, because liquor itself is a good business. The business model of the Internet is also very good. When the industry is stable, it is easy to create considerable returns for shareholders.</p><p>He believes that when the impact of external factors on Internet companies in Chinese concept stocks reaches its maximum, there is a high probability that the industry will perform the worst in the capital market. He asserted that although the space and timing of the upside of the Internet industry are uncertain, the Internet is at least an industry with little downside risk this year.</p><p>In this round of panic decline in early March, it is unknown whether Deng Xiaofeng bought Chinese concept stocks at the bottom, but his optimistic expectations for the Internet industry are undoubtedly representative. \"Chinese Buffett\" Duan Yongping is also a loyal believer in Chinese concept stocks. He once bucked the trend in the Internet bubble and became famous in NetEase. Now, in addition to \"venture capital\" Pinduoduo, the most talked about by the outside world is his bargain-hunting Tencent.</p><p>In 2018, Tencent's stock price plummeted due to issues such as the suspension of game version numbers, with a drop of more than 40% in just a few months. Duan Yongping took the opportunity to get on the bus. Last year, Tencent was criticized as \"spiritual opium\", and its stock price plummeted by nearly 40% again. On August 4th, Duan Yongping said on Xueqiu (ID: The road is invisible, I have style) that he bought Tencent, and then continued to buy it when it fell again, buying the bottom for the second time. On February 28 this year, some snowball fans teased that Tencent reached the bottom of the road again. Duan Yongping replied, \"It's lower than the price I bought last time, so I'll buy some tomorrow.\" Since then, he has repeatedly expressed his optimism about Tencent.</p><p>On March 8th, in response to a question from a netizen, he said, \"There is no plan to increase the position (every) 10% drop.\" On March 14th, he said that in another week or two, some Apple puts should expire, and then he can consider buying more; The next morning, he claimed that \"I'm going to exchange Berkshire B shares for Tencent tomorrow, and I won't wait.\" Those words may be more like jokes, though. He once said that Tencent's attraction to him is not enough to let him sell any other stocks in exchange, and he may have to think about it seriously if he falls a few more times.</p><p>In the past few years, Tencent has been widely criticized for its game business. As the founder of the game learning machine \"Little Overlord\", Duan Yongping has different views on games. He once explained the reason for buying Tencent. In his view, the most fundamental thing of games is to spend time and get happiness, and online games are the most cost-effective way for most people to get simple happiness. There is no difference between games and other consumer goods, and there is no problem of conscience. If calculated in 10 years, holding Maotai and Tencent should be better than holding cash.</p><p>Even Duan Yongping, a high-profile bargain-hunter of Tencent, still holds a very low proportion of Tencent. In contrast,<b>Some domestic public offering products are the backbone of heavy positions or bargain-hunting Chinese concept stocks against the trend.</b></p><p>For example, SDIC UBS China Value Discovery has been holding heavy positions in Tencent Holdings and Alibaba. In the fourth quarter of last year, it also increased its position in the latter, and is currently the first and second heavy positions respectively. Fund manager Tang Haibo said that he is optimistic about platform-based Internet companies whose valuations are currently at historically low levels due to continuous policy suppression in the past year. He believes that there is still plenty of room for development in these industries, and believes in the competitive advantages of leading Chinese Internet companies on a global scale.</p><p>Zhang Jun, manager of Shanghai Investment Morgan Asia Pacific Advantage Fund, also said that the forward P/E of Chinese concept stocks is about 13 times, while that of the US stock market is more than 20 times. Chinese stocks aren't expensive. Even if P/E simply stays at current levels, the expected economic expansion should propel company earnings up significantly in the coming years.</p><p>Hu Yaosheng, manager of Chuangjin Hexin Hong Kong Stock Internet Fund, put forward the logic of being optimistic about the Internet industry from the perspective of performance. He said in the Four Seasons Report that the revenue side of core Internet companies still maintains a high growth rate. Although the profit side is not ideal, it is not that there is a problem with the company's operation, and there is no risk in the fundamentals. And the current decline in stock prices is somewhat overreacted. In the fourth quarter, he \"recharged\" his cognition with real money and increased his positions in stocks such as Meituan, Tencent Holdings, Alibaba, JD.com, and Baidu Group.</p><p>After counting Public Offering of Fund's heavy holdings, it is found that Internet leaders and platform companies are still the first choice for domestic capital layout, even for QDII funds with a wider investment range. Specifically, leading stocks such as Tencent, Meituan, Ali, and JD.com have become a must-weight stock for many funds.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/18ef80ff846d568d3767f826d9465a9f\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"730\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Domestic investors know China and Chinese companies best. The fair value of Internet companies may not be judged, but many of these companies are good companies, which many people believe. The more they fall, the more they buy. Looking at the prolonged cycle, they may only lose time.</p><p>What's more, when the margin of safety has dropped significantly enough, even overseas investors in foreign countries have gradually reached a consensus on the issue of bargain-hunting Chinese concept stocks.</p><p><b>03. Foreign institutions love to play with cars</b></p><p>The 97-year-old Munger has never concealed his optimism about the Chinese economy and Chinese concept stocks.</p><p>According to the 13F document disclosed not long ago, as of the end of December 2021, Charlie Munger's company DailyJournalCorp (Daily Journal) has accumulated 602,060 shares of Alibaba through American Depositary Receipts (ADRs), with a market value of approximately US $72 million. Accounting for about 28%, it is the company's third largest holding.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9fc040ddf768d01d0aea9c221812efaa\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"535\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>It is worth mentioning that compared with the third quarter of last year, the number of Alibaba shares purchased by daily journals in the fourth quarter nearly doubled. Such a large increase in positions shows that Munger truly loves Alibaba and has a true love for the Chinese economy and Internet. Confidence is not just lip service.</p><p>In the first quarter of last year, Ali's stock price plummeted, and Munger bought 165,320 shares for the first time; In the second quarter, Ali's stock price fluctuated little. He did not rush to increase his position, but maintained his previous position unchanged; In the third quarter, Ali fell nearly 35% in a single quarter. Munger made another move, buying 136,740 shares, and the total number of shares held also rose to 300,000 shares; In the fourth quarter, Ali fell by nearly 20%. This time, he chose to strike hard and bought 300,000 shares in one go.</p><p>Although the price falls more and more, the cost of holding positions continues to dilute, but premature bargain-hunting still makes Munger somewhat passive in this investment. So much so that at the recent daily journal shareholders' meeting, issues such as his views on Chinese concept stocks and Alibaba were repeatedly mentioned by shareholders.</p><p>In response to questions from shareholders, Munger said that the reason why he invested in Chinese companies was that he could buy more value. Some Chinese companies are not only cheaper, but also more competitive. Compared with the investment opportunities in the United States, the investment opportunities in China are better, and you can buy at a cheaper price and obtain higher company value.<b>He doesn't think Alibaba's ownership structure is a particularly big risk, but feels that its moat is not as deep as Apple and Alphabet.</b></p><p>In fact, Munger is not alone on the road of bargain-hunting Chinese concept stocks.</p><p>Pioneer Pilot Group, which is familiar to domestic investors, bought 74 Chinese concept stocks in the fourth quarter of last year, all of which are new positions. The stocks with the highest market value include Baidu, Nio, XPeng Automobile, Pinduoduo, Li Auto, etc.; However, Vanguard Group did not buy the established retail e-commerce leaders such as Alibaba and JD.com, but chose the rising star Pinduoduo.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/06055d73f7cf1860d227a11b89cbf027\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"722\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>In the fourth quarter, BlackRock increased and decreased Chinese concept stocks, increased its holdings of 63 Chinese concept stocks, reduced or cleared its holdings of 66 Chinese concept stocks, and newly bought Red, Yellow, Blue, Dingdong Maicai, etc. 4 Chinese concept stocks. Among them, Nio, Pinduoduo, Li Auto, Alibaba and other stocks have all increased their holdings, while Baidu, Yum China, and XPeng Automobile have been slightly reduced.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d4d9672340b514df2dd4c24c6fa6910d\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"793\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Interestingly, well-known foreign-funded institutions such as State Street, JPMorgan Chase, Bank of New York Mellon, Norwegian Central Bank, Goldman Sachs Group, etc. have shown strong interest in China's \"new car-making forces\". In the fourth quarter, they have increased their holdings of related companies, among which Nio has received the highest attention, with 149 institutions increasing their holdings and 189 institutions newly bought.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70ad4f29b0386e4aa8a269f32a110be5\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"793\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>From the perspective of the number of shareholding institutions, Alibaba has the largest number of foreign investors stationed in it, reaching 1,287, a slight decrease from the third quarter; In addition, Yum! China, JD.com, Baidu, and Nio all hold more than 500 shares.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/010e1c582eed020439cd680854100f5f\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"688\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Of course, for Chinese concept stocks, especially Chinese Internet companies that are at the forefront of anti-monopoly, there are differences among foreign-funded institutions. But for some good companies, especially high-quality companies that are growing rapidly in the Chinese market, they have never been stingy with the bullets in their hands, such as Pinduoduo, a new car-making force, which started as a sinking market.</p><p><b>04. Epilogue</b></p><p>Duan Yongping was once asked by a reporter, when NetEase fell to only $0.8, where did you get the courage to buy it? He asked rhetorically, what was originally worth 10 yuan, now someone crying and shouting to sell it to you for 1 yuan. Does it take any courage?</p><p>When the price is significantly lower than the value of the enterprise, bargain hunting certainly does not require courage and courage, but it requires bullets.</p><p>Many times, investment will fall into the dilemma of \"you can know it at a glance, but you can't learn it as soon as you learn it\". The reason is not only related to ability, but also the lack of freedom of funds. Most people don't have the ability to judge the value of a company, and stock price bottoming and value discovery usually don't come at the same time.</p><p>After all, there was only one Duan Yongping, but there were many people who fell in the darkness before dawn.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"lsy1583835599575","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>China Internet Fog: What do you believe in?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nChina Internet Fog: What do you believe in?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">远川投资评论</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-03-27 08:18</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>In recent years, institutions have worked hard to educate Christians to \"buy more and more\", but it seems that only Zhonggai Internet can make everyone scold and change its name to \"Mutual Pity of Chinese Beggars\" while paying obediently.</p><p>On February 18, 2021, the on-site price of (E Fund) Zhonggai Internet ETF hit a record high. At that time, the share of this fund was less than 3.5 billion shares, and the product was far less famous than it is now. Unexpectedly, during the subsequent decline in net value and on-market prices, the share of this fund increased instead of decreasing, increasing more than 10 times in more than a year, approaching 35.5 billion shares. (Bank of Communications) Zhonggai Internet LOF, (GF) Zhonggai Internet ETF, Hang Seng Technology ETF and other index funds that can invest in Hong Kong stocks and the Internet have achieved a great leap forward during this period.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/002c4daa1600178dc042fd90aa7fe201\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"840\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Investors who are accustomed to conspiracy theories will think without hesitation that 80% of these \"suicidal\" bargain-hunting behaviors are luring leeks to go deeper. Actually, it's not.</p><p>Wind data shows that when the share and scale of (E Fund) Zhonggai Internet ETF are rising against the trend, the proportion of institutional holdings is rising slightly, and the proportion of internal holdings is also rising slightly. This shows that not only institutional funds, but also insiders of fund companies Personnel are also constantly buying bottoms during the decline of Chinese concept stocks.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/275016ee3f4b499c5320654bfaa41997\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"840\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>When domestic funds are full of enthusiasm for bargain hunting, foreign capital is hit head-on. The 13F report shows that many foreign investors such as Goldman Sachs, Temasek, BlackRock, and JPMorgan Chase have reduced their holdings of leading Chinese concept stocks such as Alibaba. The five Chinese concept stocks were even included in the \"pre-delisting list\" by the US Securities and Exchange Commission. JPMorgan Chase gave a \"sell rating\" to Chinese concept stocks in batches, and the cold ice rain pressed the bulls on the ground and rubbed them repeatedly.</p><p>Some people get on the bus and buy more and more as they fall, while others get off the boat and leave the market at the expense of cutting their meat. The huge differences seem to make the future of Chinese concept stocks even more confusing.</p><p>This article mainly answers the reasons for the decline of Chinese concept stocks and what domestic and foreign funds bought at the bottom. It is divided into three parts:</p><p>1) Reveal: Why did Chinese concept stocks plummet?</p><p>2) Bottom-hunting: domestic funds buy \"platforms\"</p><p>3) Change: Overseas institutions love to play with cars</p><p><b>01. Why did it fall sharply?</b></p><p>\"Just out of ICU, I entered KTV again\", the recent performance of Chinese concept stocks is almost crazy. However, short-lived joy can't soothe the wounded hearts of investors.</p><p>Wind data shows that as of the close on March 21, 231 of the 370 Chinese concept stocks have fallen this year, accounting for 62%; Among them, there are 29 stocks whose stock prices have been cut in half, and Tiandihui and Juhao Mall both fell by nearly 90%. In a market without rise and fall limits, it is so unrestrained when it falls.</p><p>If we count the decline of the stock price from its high point so far, the situation is even more tragic. For example, Alibaba, which currently has the largest market value in the Chinese concept stock market, hit a record high of US $319.32 at the end of October 2020, but now its stock price is less than 1/3 of that at that time, with a drop of as much as 67%, and the lowest during the period fell to US $73.28; Baidu, Pinduoduo and other Chinese concept stocks have all fallen by more than 50% since the high point, and even JD.com, which is more resilient to decline, has fallen by 40%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/693d152af3bc7480f2d07bf9b4e2479d\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1047\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>The stock prices of Internet companies such as Tencent Holdings, Meituan, and Xiaomi listed on the Hong Kong stock market have also been losing ground, falling to the point that shareholders don't even recognize them.</p><p>This round of adjustment of Chinese concept stocks, with a large decline, a long cycle, and a wide scope, is rare in history. The reasons behind it must not be simply explained by performance. Behind the near destruction of the group, there are four words: internal troubles and external troubles.</p><p>As we all know, the biggest \"external trouble\" faced by Chinese concept stocks is the risk of delisting.</p><p>According to the Holding Foreign Companies Accountable Act passed by the U.S. Congress in 2020, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is allowed to delist a foreign listed company from the exchange if it fails to submit the report required by the U.S. Public Company Accounting Oversight Board for three consecutive years; These include the unequal requirement that foreign companies listed in the United States disclose audit papers.</p><p>On March 10 this year, the SEC included five Chinese concept stock companies in the tentative list of the \"Foreign Company Accountability Act\", which once again triggered a wave of selling in Chinese concept stocks and made investors have a more intuitive understanding of the lethality of delisting. feel. The risk of delisting is, in the final analysis, a crisis of confidence, and the pressure on Chinese concept stocks mainly comes from two aspects:</p><p>First, concerns about liquidity discounts. U.S. stocks are a global market with flooding liquidity. The premium of listing in the United States is relatively high, and the financing efficiency is higher; In contrast, the liquidity of Hong Kong stocks is not so abundant, and the premium of listing in Hong Kong is low. After Chinese concept stocks are delisted in the United States, they are transferred to Hong Kong stocks, which tests the ability of domestic investors to undertake, and there may be liquidity discount risks.</p><p>Second, the pressure of US dollar investors to concentrate on selling. At present, there are still a large number of overseas institutions among shareholders of Chinese concept stocks. If these companies delist from the US stock market, it will inevitably trigger a large-scale sell-off by overseas investors.</p><p>The house leaks and it rains all night. The sword of delisting is still hanging, and the tightening of domestic industry regulatory policies has cast an unpredictable shadow over the prospects of Chinese concept stocks.</p><p>In the past year or so, policies such as anti-monopoly in the Internet industry, \"double reduction\" in the education industry, and new regulations on anti-addiction to online games have been introduced one after another. Although the starting point of these policies is good, not to suppress individual industries and enterprises, it takes time for overseas investors to adjust their domestic policy expectations, which can easily lead to short-term market overreaction, sudden drop in risk appetite and panic decline.</p><p>In the communication with some fund managers, I found that there is another voice about the reason for the decline of Chinese concept stocks. Some people think that after years of development, the penetration rate of the Internet is very high, and the development of the industry has entered the second half. In recent years, the growth logic of the Internet industry is that the market is sinking, but the entire industry space may have approached the \"ceiling\". It is expected that the future industry growth rate will peak and fall back.</p><p>In other words, the rapid growth period of the Internet industry has passed, and it will enter a mature period in the future, and the imagination space of valuation has become smaller. Although this view is somewhat \"hindsight\", it undoubtedly aggravates the pessimistic expectations of the market.</p><p>However, delisting, policy supervision, and the peak of industry growth may be only the superficial reasons for the decline of Chinese concept stocks. The deep-seated reason is that the underlying valuation logic has changed.</p><p>When common prosperity is placed in an important position, when economic development changes from high speed to high quality, and the distribution system also shifts from giving priority to efficiency to taking into account fairness, in this context, the market valuation system may be reshaped.</p><p>The ghost story that firm holders of Chinese concept stocks are most afraid of hearing is that the Internet will become a public utility. As we all know, technology stocks tend to grow fast, have huge industry space, and the market is willing to give them high valuations; On the contrary, public utility companies are not so sexy in terms of performance growth rate or industry space. If this change really happens, Internet companies are bound to encounter the double-kill pressure of performance and valuation.</p><p>Compared with the simple and straightforward performance, the company's valuation is too vague, which is often a matter of opinion. The biggest problem currently encountered by Internet companies is how much they are worth and how to give valuations when the market environment changes drastically. Market participants have not yet reached a consensus, and there is no reference standard. In the view of Jiang Cheng of Zhongtai Asset Management, the reason behind it is the absence of \"value anchor\".</p><p>Although the haze of delisting has not dissipated, and the original valuation logic may be overturned and started over, in the face of Internet companies whose stock prices are frequently cut in half and whose valuations have entered historically low ranges, bargain-hunting funds can be described as going forward one after another.</p><p><b>02. Domestic capital buying platform</b></p><p>Deng Xiaofeng, chief investment officer of Gaoyi Assets, shared his views on the Internet industry when communicating with investors online at the beginning of this year.</p><p>In his view, the Internet industry is similar to the liquor industry in 2012 and 2013. At that time, affected by the \"eight regulations\" and the \"plasticizer\" incident, liquor stocks continued to adjust and did not begin to recover until 2016, but this did not hinder the long-term high returns of this industry, because liquor itself is a good business. The business model of the Internet is also very good. When the industry is stable, it is easy to create considerable returns for shareholders.</p><p>He believes that when the impact of external factors on Internet companies in Chinese concept stocks reaches its maximum, there is a high probability that the industry will perform the worst in the capital market. He asserted that although the space and timing of the upside of the Internet industry are uncertain, the Internet is at least an industry with little downside risk this year.</p><p>In this round of panic decline in early March, it is unknown whether Deng Xiaofeng bought Chinese concept stocks at the bottom, but his optimistic expectations for the Internet industry are undoubtedly representative. \"Chinese Buffett\" Duan Yongping is also a loyal believer in Chinese concept stocks. He once bucked the trend in the Internet bubble and became famous in NetEase. Now, in addition to \"venture capital\" Pinduoduo, the most talked about by the outside world is his bargain-hunting Tencent.</p><p>In 2018, Tencent's stock price plummeted due to issues such as the suspension of game version numbers, with a drop of more than 40% in just a few months. Duan Yongping took the opportunity to get on the bus. Last year, Tencent was criticized as \"spiritual opium\", and its stock price plummeted by nearly 40% again. On August 4th, Duan Yongping said on Xueqiu (ID: The road is invisible, I have style) that he bought Tencent, and then continued to buy it when it fell again, buying the bottom for the second time. On February 28 this year, some snowball fans teased that Tencent reached the bottom of the road again. Duan Yongping replied, \"It's lower than the price I bought last time, so I'll buy some tomorrow.\" Since then, he has repeatedly expressed his optimism about Tencent.</p><p>On March 8th, in response to a question from a netizen, he said, \"There is no plan to increase the position (every) 10% drop.\" On March 14th, he said that in another week or two, some Apple puts should expire, and then he can consider buying more; The next morning, he claimed that \"I'm going to exchange Berkshire B shares for Tencent tomorrow, and I won't wait.\" Those words may be more like jokes, though. He once said that Tencent's attraction to him is not enough to let him sell any other stocks in exchange, and he may have to think about it seriously if he falls a few more times.</p><p>In the past few years, Tencent has been widely criticized for its game business. As the founder of the game learning machine \"Little Overlord\", Duan Yongping has different views on games. He once explained the reason for buying Tencent. In his view, the most fundamental thing of games is to spend time and get happiness, and online games are the most cost-effective way for most people to get simple happiness. There is no difference between games and other consumer goods, and there is no problem of conscience. If calculated in 10 years, holding Maotai and Tencent should be better than holding cash.</p><p>Even Duan Yongping, a high-profile bargain-hunter of Tencent, still holds a very low proportion of Tencent. In contrast,<b>Some domestic public offering products are the backbone of heavy positions or bargain-hunting Chinese concept stocks against the trend.</b></p><p>For example, SDIC UBS China Value Discovery has been holding heavy positions in Tencent Holdings and Alibaba. In the fourth quarter of last year, it also increased its position in the latter, and is currently the first and second heavy positions respectively. Fund manager Tang Haibo said that he is optimistic about platform-based Internet companies whose valuations are currently at historically low levels due to continuous policy suppression in the past year. He believes that there is still plenty of room for development in these industries, and believes in the competitive advantages of leading Chinese Internet companies on a global scale.</p><p>Zhang Jun, manager of Shanghai Investment Morgan Asia Pacific Advantage Fund, also said that the forward P/E of Chinese concept stocks is about 13 times, while that of the US stock market is more than 20 times. Chinese stocks aren't expensive. Even if P/E simply stays at current levels, the expected economic expansion should propel company earnings up significantly in the coming years.</p><p>Hu Yaosheng, manager of Chuangjin Hexin Hong Kong Stock Internet Fund, put forward the logic of being optimistic about the Internet industry from the perspective of performance. He said in the Four Seasons Report that the revenue side of core Internet companies still maintains a high growth rate. Although the profit side is not ideal, it is not that there is a problem with the company's operation, and there is no risk in the fundamentals. And the current decline in stock prices is somewhat overreacted. In the fourth quarter, he \"recharged\" his cognition with real money and increased his positions in stocks such as Meituan, Tencent Holdings, Alibaba, JD.com, and Baidu Group.</p><p>After counting Public Offering of Fund's heavy holdings, it is found that Internet leaders and platform companies are still the first choice for domestic capital layout, even for QDII funds with a wider investment range. Specifically, leading stocks such as Tencent, Meituan, Ali, and JD.com have become a must-weight stock for many funds.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/18ef80ff846d568d3767f826d9465a9f\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"730\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Domestic investors know China and Chinese companies best. The fair value of Internet companies may not be judged, but many of these companies are good companies, which many people believe. The more they fall, the more they buy. Looking at the prolonged cycle, they may only lose time.</p><p>What's more, when the margin of safety has dropped significantly enough, even overseas investors in foreign countries have gradually reached a consensus on the issue of bargain-hunting Chinese concept stocks.</p><p><b>03. Foreign institutions love to play with cars</b></p><p>The 97-year-old Munger has never concealed his optimism about the Chinese economy and Chinese concept stocks.</p><p>According to the 13F document disclosed not long ago, as of the end of December 2021, Charlie Munger's company DailyJournalCorp (Daily Journal) has accumulated 602,060 shares of Alibaba through American Depositary Receipts (ADRs), with a market value of approximately US $72 million. Accounting for about 28%, it is the company's third largest holding.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9fc040ddf768d01d0aea9c221812efaa\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"535\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>It is worth mentioning that compared with the third quarter of last year, the number of Alibaba shares purchased by daily journals in the fourth quarter nearly doubled. Such a large increase in positions shows that Munger truly loves Alibaba and has a true love for the Chinese economy and Internet. Confidence is not just lip service.</p><p>In the first quarter of last year, Ali's stock price plummeted, and Munger bought 165,320 shares for the first time; In the second quarter, Ali's stock price fluctuated little. He did not rush to increase his position, but maintained his previous position unchanged; In the third quarter, Ali fell nearly 35% in a single quarter. Munger made another move, buying 136,740 shares, and the total number of shares held also rose to 300,000 shares; In the fourth quarter, Ali fell by nearly 20%. This time, he chose to strike hard and bought 300,000 shares in one go.</p><p>Although the price falls more and more, the cost of holding positions continues to dilute, but premature bargain-hunting still makes Munger somewhat passive in this investment. So much so that at the recent daily journal shareholders' meeting, issues such as his views on Chinese concept stocks and Alibaba were repeatedly mentioned by shareholders.</p><p>In response to questions from shareholders, Munger said that the reason why he invested in Chinese companies was that he could buy more value. Some Chinese companies are not only cheaper, but also more competitive. Compared with the investment opportunities in the United States, the investment opportunities in China are better, and you can buy at a cheaper price and obtain higher company value.<b>He doesn't think Alibaba's ownership structure is a particularly big risk, but feels that its moat is not as deep as Apple and Alphabet.</b></p><p>In fact, Munger is not alone on the road of bargain-hunting Chinese concept stocks.</p><p>Pioneer Pilot Group, which is familiar to domestic investors, bought 74 Chinese concept stocks in the fourth quarter of last year, all of which are new positions. The stocks with the highest market value include Baidu, Nio, XPeng Automobile, Pinduoduo, Li Auto, etc.; However, Vanguard Group did not buy the established retail e-commerce leaders such as Alibaba and JD.com, but chose the rising star Pinduoduo.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/06055d73f7cf1860d227a11b89cbf027\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"722\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>In the fourth quarter, BlackRock increased and decreased Chinese concept stocks, increased its holdings of 63 Chinese concept stocks, reduced or cleared its holdings of 66 Chinese concept stocks, and newly bought Red, Yellow, Blue, Dingdong Maicai, etc. 4 Chinese concept stocks. Among them, Nio, Pinduoduo, Li Auto, Alibaba and other stocks have all increased their holdings, while Baidu, Yum China, and XPeng Automobile have been slightly reduced.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d4d9672340b514df2dd4c24c6fa6910d\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"793\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Interestingly, well-known foreign-funded institutions such as State Street, JPMorgan Chase, Bank of New York Mellon, Norwegian Central Bank, Goldman Sachs Group, etc. have shown strong interest in China's \"new car-making forces\". In the fourth quarter, they have increased their holdings of related companies, among which Nio has received the highest attention, with 149 institutions increasing their holdings and 189 institutions newly bought.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70ad4f29b0386e4aa8a269f32a110be5\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"793\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>From the perspective of the number of shareholding institutions, Alibaba has the largest number of foreign investors stationed in it, reaching 1,287, a slight decrease from the third quarter; In addition, Yum! China, JD.com, Baidu, and Nio all hold more than 500 shares.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/010e1c582eed020439cd680854100f5f\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"688\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Of course, for Chinese concept stocks, especially Chinese Internet companies that are at the forefront of anti-monopoly, there are differences among foreign-funded institutions. But for some good companies, especially high-quality companies that are growing rapidly in the Chinese market, they have never been stingy with the bullets in their hands, such as Pinduoduo, a new car-making force, which started as a sinking market.</p><p><b>04. Epilogue</b></p><p>Duan Yongping was once asked by a reporter, when NetEase fell to only $0.8, where did you get the courage to buy it? He asked rhetorically, what was originally worth 10 yuan, now someone crying and shouting to sell it to you for 1 yuan. Does it take any courage?</p><p>When the price is significantly lower than the value of the enterprise, bargain hunting certainly does not require courage and courage, but it requires bullets.</p><p>Many times, investment will fall into the dilemma of \"you can know it at a glance, but you can't learn it as soon as you learn it\". The reason is not only related to ability, but also the lack of freedom of funds. Most people don't have the ability to judge the value of a company, and stock price bottoming and value discovery usually don't come at the same time.</p><p>After all, there was only one Duan Yongping, but there were many people who fell in the darkness before dawn.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/XPCA4w1aSfUe4N1SA4X6-g\">远川投资评论</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a00745cd781f91ef6ef359064c639fbb","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/XPCA4w1aSfUe4N1SA4X6-g","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1104202250","content_text":"这些年，机构苦口婆心教育基民“越跌越买”，但似乎只有中概互联，能让大家一边痛骂不如改名“中丐互怜”，一边乖乖掏钱。2021年2月18日，（易方达）中概互联网ETF场内价格创出历史新高。当时，这只基金的份额不到35亿份，产品的名气远没有现在这么大。没想到的是，在随后净值和场内价格持续下跌过程中，这只基金的份额不减反增，1年多时间翻了10倍以上，直逼355亿份。（交银）中概互联网LOF、（广发）中概互联ETF、恒生科技ETF等可投港股互联网的指数基金，份额在这期间都实现了大跃进。这种“自杀式”的抄底行为，习惯了阴谋论的投资者们会不假思索地认为，八成又是机构在诱韭菜深入。其实并非如此。Wind 数据显示，在（易方达）中概互联网ETF份额和规模逆势攀升之际，机构持有比例在小幅上升，而且内部持有比例也在小幅升高，这说明不仅是机构资金，基金公司内部人员也在中概股下跌的过程中不断抄底。当国内资金抄底热情满满，外资却迎头一棒。13F报告显示，高盛、淡马锡、贝莱德、摩根大通等多家外资减持了阿里巴巴等中概股龙头。而5家中概股更被美国证监会列入“预摘牌名单”，摩根大通对中概股批量给出“卖出评级”，冷冷冰雨把多头按在地上反复摩擦。有人上车，越跌越买，有人下船，不惜割肉离场。巨大的分歧，似乎让中概股的未来更加扑朔迷离。本文主要回答中概股下跌的原因，以及国内外资金抄底都买了什么，一共分为三个部分：1）揭秘：中概股为何大跌？2）抄底：国内资金买“平台”3）变化：海外机构爱玩车01、缘何大跌？“刚出ICU，又进KTV”，中概股最近的表现几近癫狂。不过，短暂的欢愉并不能抚慰投资者受伤的心。Wind数据显示，截至3月21日收盘，370只中概股中有231只今年以来下跌，占比62%；其中，股价腰斩的个股29只，天地荟、聚好商城跌幅均逼近90%。没有涨跌板限制的市场，跌起来就是这么奔放。若统计股价高点至今的跌幅，情况更为惨烈。比如，目前中概股市值最大的阿里巴巴，2020年10月底曾创出了319.32美元的历史最高价，而如今股价不到当时的1/3，跌幅高达67%，期间最低跌至73.28美元；百度、拼多多等中概股自高点以来的跌幅均在50%以上，即使是较为抗跌的京东跌幅也达到40%。在港股上市的腾讯控股、美团、小米等互联网公司，股价也节节败退，跌到股东都不认识。中概股这轮调整，下跌幅度之大、周期之长、波及范围之广历史罕见，背后原因肯定不能简单的用业绩来解释。近乎团灭的背后，总的就是四个字：内忧外患。众所周知，中概股面临的最大“外患”就是退市风险。根据美国国会2020年通过的《外国公司问责法案》，如果外国上市公司连续三年未能提交美国上市公司会计监督委员会所要求的报告，允许美国证监会（SEC）将其从交易所摘牌；其中就包括在美上市的外国公司需要披露审计底稿的不对等要求。今年3月10日，SEC将5家中概股公司列入《外国公司问责法》的暂定清单，再次引发了中概股的抛售潮，让投资者对退市的杀伤力有了更直观的感受。退市风险，说到底是信任危机，对中概股造成的压力主要来自于两个方面：一是，对流动性折价的担忧。美股是一个全球性的市场，流动性泛滥，在美上市的溢价比较高，融资效率更高；与之相比，港股流动性没有那么充裕，在港上市的溢价较低。中概股在美退市后转到港股上市，考验着国内投资者的承接能力，可能存在流动性折价风险。二是，美元投资者集中抛售的压力。目前中概股股东中仍有大量的海外机构，若这些公司从美股退市，势必会引发海外投资者的大规模抛售。屋漏偏逢连夜雨。退市之剑悬而未落，国内行业监管政策的收紧，又给中概股的前景蒙着捉摸不透的阴影。在过去一年多里，互联网行业反垄断、教育行业“双减”、网络游戏防沉迷新规等政策陆续出台。尽管这些政策的出发点都是好的，并非为了打压个别行业和企业，但海外投资者对国内政策预期调整需要时间，容易导致市场短期过度反应，风险偏好骤降，出现恐慌式下跌。在与一些基金经理的交流中发现，对于中概股下跌的原因，还有另外一种声音。有人认为，经过多年发展，互联网的渗透率非常高，行业发展进入后半段，近几年互联网行业的增长逻辑是市场下沉，但整个行业空间或许已经逼近“天花板”，预计未来行业增速将见顶回落。换句话说，互联网行业高速成长期已经过去了，未来将进入成熟期，估值的想象空间变小了。这样的看法虽然有些“马后炮”，但无疑加重了市场的悲观预期。不过，退市、政策监管，以及行业增速见顶，可能都只是中概股下跌的表层原因，深层次的原因在于底层估值逻辑发生了变化。当共同富裕摆在了重要的位置，当经济发展从高速度转变为高质量，分配制度也从效率优先到兼顾公平，在此背景下，市场的估值体系可能被重塑。中概股的坚定持有者们最怕听到的鬼故事，就是互联网要变为公共事业。众所周知，科技股往往增速快，行业空间巨大，市场也愿意给它们高估值；相反，公共事业公司无论是业绩增速，还是行业空间，都没有那么性感。如果真的发生这种改变，互联网公司势必会遇到业绩和估值的双杀压力。相比业绩的简单直白，公司估值要模糊太多，常常是见仁见智。互联网公司当前遇到的最大问题是，当市场环境发生剧烈改变后，它们到底值多少钱，估值应该怎么给，市场参与者还没有形成共识，也没有一个可参考的标准。在中泰资管姜诚看来，隐藏在背后的原因是“价值锚”的缺位。尽管退市阴霾未散，原有估值逻辑也有可能被推倒重来，但是面对股价动辄腰斩、估值进入历史较低区间的互联网公司，抄底资金可谓是前赴后继。02、国内资金买「平台」高毅资产首席投资官邓晓峰在今年初与投资者线上交流时分享了自己对互联网行业的看法。在他看来，互联网行业类似2012、2013年时的白酒行业。当时受“八项规定”和“塑化剂”事件的影响，白酒股持续调整，直到2016年才开始复苏，但这并不妨碍这个行业长期的高回报，因为白酒本身是一门好生意。互联网的商业模式也非常优秀，当行业稳定之后，很容易为股东创造可观的回报。他认为，外部因素对中概股互联网公司影响达到最大值的时候，大概率是行业在资本市场表现最差的时候。他断言，尽管互联网行业上行的空间和时间尚不确定，但今年互联网至少是一个下行风险很小的行业。在3月初这轮恐慌性下跌中，邓晓峰有没有抄底中概股不得而知，但他对于互联网行业的乐观预期无疑是具有代表性的。“中国巴菲特”段永平也是中概股的忠实信徒，曾在互联网泡沫中逆势抄底网易一战成名，如今除了“风投”拼多多之外，外界最为津津乐道的还是他抄底腾讯。2018年，腾讯因游戏版号停发等问题股价暴跌，短短几个月跌幅超40%，段永平趁机上车。去年，腾讯被批为“精神鸦片”，股价再次大跌近40%。段永平8月4日在雪球（ID：大道无形我有型）上称买了腾讯，再跌继续买，二度抄底。今年2月28日，有雪球粉丝调侃，腾讯又到了大道底。段永平回复称，“低过我上次买的价钱了，那明天再买点”。此后，他还多次表达了对腾讯的看好。3月8日，他在回复网友提问时表示，“计划没（每）掉10%加一次仓”。3月14日，他表示再过一两个礼拜，应该还有些苹果的put到期，到时可以考虑再买点；次日上午，他又声称“明天准备拿伯克希尔B股换点腾讯，不等了”。不过，这些话可能更像开玩笑。他曾表示，腾讯对他的吸引力还没到让他卖掉任何别的股票去换的地步，再跌几次说不定就要认真想想了。过去几年，腾讯因游戏业务广受诟病。作为游戏学习机“小霸王”的缔造者，段永平对游戏有着不同的看法。他曾经解释过买腾讯的理由。在他看来，游戏最根本的东西是消费时间并获得快乐，而网络游戏是大多数人获取简单快乐最具有性价比的办法。游戏和其他消费品没有任何差别，并不存在良知的问题。如果以10年计，拿着茅台和腾讯应该比拿着现金好。即使是高调抄底腾讯的段永平，持有腾讯的比重还很低。相比之下，国内一些公募产品才是重仓持有或是逆势抄底中概股的中坚力量。比如，国投瑞银中国价值发现一直重仓持有腾讯控股和阿里巴巴，去年四季度还加仓了后者，目前分别为第一和第二重仓。基金经理汤海波表示，看好过去 一年中受持续政策打压，目前估值处于历史低位的平台型互联网公司。他认为这些行业仍有充足的发展空间，并相信中国互联网龙头公司在全球范围内的竞争优势。上投摩根亚太优势基金经理张军也表示，中概股的远期市盈率约为13倍，而美国股市则超过20倍。中国股票并不昂贵。即使市盈率只是停留在目前水平，预期的经济扩张应该会推动公司收益在未来几年大幅上升。创金合信港股互联网基金经理胡尧盛则从业绩角度提出了看好互联网行业的逻辑。他在四季报中表示，核心互联网公司收入端依然维持较高增速，虽然利润端不理想，但并非公司经营出了问题，基本面并没有出现风险。而当前股价下跌反应有些过度。他四季度真金白银为自己的认知“充值”，加仓了美团、腾讯控股、阿里巴巴、京东集团、百度集团等股票。统计公募基金重仓股后发现，互联网龙头、平台型公司仍是国内资金布局首选，即使是投资范围更广的QDII基金也是如此。具体来看，腾讯、美团、阿里、京东等龙头股成为很多基金必配重仓股。国内投资者最懂中国，也最懂中国的公司，互联网公司的公允价值可能无法判断，但这些公司中不少是好公司，这于这一点很多人深信不疑。他们越跌越买，拉长周期看，输的或许只是时间。更何况，当安全边际已经跌得足够明显，哪怕是异国他乡的海外投资者，也在抄底中概股这件事情上逐渐有了共识。03、国外机构爱玩车97岁的芒格对中国经济、中概股的看好从来不掩饰。根据不久前披露的13F文件显示，截至2021年12月底，查理·芒格旗下公司DailyJournalCorp（每日期刊）通过美国存托凭证(ADR)累积持有阿里巴巴602060股，持有市值约0.72亿美元，占比约28%，为公司第三大持仓。值得一提的是，与去年三季度相比，四季度每日期刊买入阿里巴巴的股票数量接近翻倍，如此大手笔的加仓，可见芒格对阿里巴巴是真爱，对中国经济、互联网的信心并非嘴上说说而已。去年一季度，阿里股价大跌，芒格首次买入了165320股；二季度阿里股价波动较小，他并没有急于加仓，只是维持之前的持仓不变；三季度阿里单季下跌近35%，芒格再次出手，买入136740股，持股总数也上升至30万股；四季度阿里又下跌了近20%，他这次选择了重拳出击，一口气买了30万股。尽管越跌越买，持仓成本不断摊薄，但过早的抄底，还是让芒格在这笔投资上有些被动。以至于在近期召开的每日期刊股东大会上，他对中概股、对阿里巴巴的看法之类的问题被股东们反复提到。芒格在回答股东提问时表示，之所以投资中国公司，是因为能够买到更多的价值。一些中国公司不仅价格便宜，而且竞争力更强。与美国的投资机会相比，中国的投资机会更好，而且能以更便宜的价格买入，获得更高的公司价值。他不觉得阿里巴巴的股权结构是一项特别大的风险，只是觉得其护城河没有苹果和Alphabet那么深。实际上，在抄底中概股的道路上，芒格并不孤单。国内投资者比较熟悉的先锋领航集团，去年四季度买入了74只中概股，而且均为新进持仓，持有市值排名靠前的个股包括百度、蔚来、小鹏汽车、拼多多、理想汽车等；但是，先锋集团没有买阿里巴巴、京东这些老牌零售电商龙头，而是选择了后起之秀拼多多。贝莱德四季度对中概股有增有减，对63只中概股进行了增持，对66只中概股进行了减持或清仓，另外新进买入红黄蓝、叮咚买菜等4只中概股。其中，蔚来、拼多多、理想汽车、阿里巴巴等个股均获得增持，百度、百胜中国、小鹏汽车虽被小幅减持。有意思的是，道富银行、摩根大通、纽约梅隆银行、挪威中央银行、高盛集团等知名外资机构，对中国“造车新势力”表现出了浓厚的兴趣，四季度纷纷增持了相关公司，其中蔚来受关注度最高，获得149家机构增持，189家机构新买入。若从持股机构数来看，阿里巴巴中驻扎的外资数量最多，达1287家，较三季度小幅下降；另外，百胜中国、京东、百度、蔚来持股机构数均超过500家。当然，对于中概股，尤其是处于反垄断风口浪尖的中国互联网公司，外资机构之间是有分歧的。但对于一些好公司，尤其是中国市场上快速成长的优质公司，他们从来不吝啬手里的子弹，比如造车新势力、以做下沉市场起家的拼多多。04、尾声段永平曾被记者问道，当年网易跌得仅剩0.8美元，你哪来的勇气敢买入？他反问道，原本值10块钱的东西，现在有人哭着喊着要以1块钱的价格卖给你，这还需要什么勇气吗？当价格显著低于企业价值时，抄底当然不需要勇气和胆识，但需要子弹。很多时候投资会陷入“一看就会，一学就废”的困境，原因既关乎能力，又在于资金的不自由。大多数人是不具备判断一家公司价值的能力的，而股价见底与价值发现通常不会同时到来。毕竟，段永平只有一个，但倒在了黎明前黑暗中的人，却有许多。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":583,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9010317217,"gmtCreate":1648258116774,"gmtModify":1676534322778,"author":{"id":"3572683426659077","authorId":"3572683426659077","name":"haiwei183","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1cae291bddff5a30eeb96060074d8531","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3572683426659077","idStr":"3572683426659077"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"look","listText":"look","text":"look","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9010317217","repostId":"1175213400","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1386,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9056450267,"gmtCreate":1655077840159,"gmtModify":1676535555831,"author":{"id":"3572683426659077","authorId":"3572683426659077","name":"haiwei183","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1cae291bddff5a30eeb96060074d8531","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3572683426659077","idStr":"3572683426659077"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"look","listText":"look","text":"look","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9056450267","repostId":"2243743215","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2243743215","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1655075294,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2243743215?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-06-13 07:08","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Foreign media headlines | Highlight! Fed rate hike Storm Continues","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2243743215","media":"环球市场播报","summary":"鲍威尔将在美联储为期两天的会议后向媒体作简报。Astra Space火箭发射任务失败 NASA气象卫星丢失周日，美国火箭公司Astra Space将小型天气监测NASA卫星送入轨道的任务失败了。失败发生在Astra火箭3.3从佛罗里达州卡纳维拉尔角太空部队发射台成功发射大约10分钟后。美国5月份消费者价格同比涨幅意外加速至8.6%，创40年新高，可能会推动美联储延长激进的加息周期。埃里安再次批评美联储在通胀方面“落后”，并表示他预计在本周的利率会议上加息50个基点。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body><b>The headlines that the global financial media paid attention to last night and this morning mainly include:</b></p><p><b>1. The highlight! Fed to rate hike this week, but Powell speech may be particularly important</b><b>2. Summers urges the Fed to face up to the severity of inflation and says the risk of recession is imminent</b><b>3. Oil prices continue to soar, UK orders review of fuel market</b><b>4、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ASTR\">Astra Space</a>Rocket Launch Mission Fails, NASA Weather Satellite Lost</b><b>5. Dutch regulators said<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>Additional payment methods will be available in dating apps</b><b>6. Allianz chief economist says Fed action \"lags behind\" U.S. inflation rate may reach 9%</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3c2adadd4cdfbf839dcfc63699815f5d\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"481\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Highlight! Fed to rate hike this week, but Powell speech may be particularly important</b></p><p>The important events in the coming week may all come down to Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's speech at 2:30 p.m. EST on Wednesday.</p><p>Powell will brief the media after the Fed's two-day meeting. The Federal Reserve is widely expected to raise the federal funds target rate range by 0.5 percentage points, but the red-hot inflation data in May has caused the market to worry about whether policymakers will be more aggressive or predict a faster pace of future rate hike.</p><p>Stocks and bonds have been volatile amid investors' concerns that inflation may not peak and that rate hike could lead to a recession.</p><p>Stocks tumbled after Friday's May consumer price index came in well above expectations. For the week, the S&P 500 fell 5.1%. The index closed Friday at 3,900 points, down 2.9%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9c979b143c8dcaab8d1f208af870ba0a\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"406\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Summers urges Fed to face up to the severity of inflation, saying recession risk is imminent</b></p><p>Former U.S. Treasury Secretary Summers urged the Federal Reserve to realize the seriousness of inflation, which has accelerated to its highest level in 40 years by the time policymakers meet this week and the risk of a recession is looming.</p><p>\"When inflation is as high as it is and unemployment is as low as it is, there is almost always a recession within two years,\" he said on CNN's \"State of the Union\" Sunday. When it comes to inflation, \"the Fed's forecasts tend to be overly optimistic, and I hope they are fully aware of the seriousness of the problem.\"</p><p>Summers pointed to the risk of a possible recession next year, though he said it was \"more likely\" within the next two years.</p><p>Summers, who has been predicting high inflation since last year, said the path of inflation depends on the Russia-Ukraine conflict and its impact on oil prices. U.S. consumer prices rose 8.6% year-over-year in May, a sign that price pressures are becoming entrenched in the economy.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/32a35993591bceb2e3ecfd4a9b8961ac\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"547\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>UK orders fuel market review as oil prices continue to surge</b></p><p>The UK government has asked the competition watchdog to review the retail fuel market to see whether tariff cuts have been passed on to consumers as prices at petrol stations reach unprecedented highs.</p><p>Britain's Business Secretary Kwarteng said on Sunday that the investigation will find out why fuel prices are always rising fast but falling slowly.</p><p>The UK cut fuel duty by 5p a litre for a year in March in a £ 5 bn ($6.2bn) package to ease the burden on motorists amid a growing cost-of-living crunch for families.</p><p>However, fuel prices continue to rise in the UK, with the average cost of refueling a family car exceeding 100lbs for the first time last week. The British people are frustrated that the £ 5 billion package has not been passed on to fuel prices.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e7ef7448a731908a5f6838b48b9973cb\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"478\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Astra Space Rocket Launch Mission Fails, NASA Weather Satellite Lost</b></p><p>U.S. rocket company Astra Space's mission to send small weather-monitoring NASA satellites into orbit failed on Sunday. It is reported that the second-stage booster engine was shut down early in early space.</p><p>The failure occurred approximately 10 minutes after the successful launch of the Astra rocket 3.3 from the Space Force launch pad at Cape Canaveral, Florida.</p><p>\"We made a nominal first-stage flight. However, the engine of the higher stage did shut down early, and we didn't put the payload into orbit,\" Astra said.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3d797560c158b6042e149885c94c1dd3\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"479\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Dutch regulator says Apple will offer other payment methods in dating app</b></p><p>Apple Inc. will allow different payment methods in the Dutch dating app, the Dutch antitrust regulator said on Saturday, ending a dispute that led to a 50 million euro ($52.58 million) fine for the company.</p><p>The Dutch Consumer and Markets Authority (AMC) said in a statement: With this concession, Apple will meet the requirements set by regulators under EU and Dutch competition rules.</p><p>Apple has long mandated the use of its in-app payment system, which charges a commission of up to 30%, which some developers like Tinder owner Match Group Inc think is too high.</p><p>\"In the digital economy, powerful companies have a special responsibility to keep markets fair and open. Apple has evaded this responsibility and abused its dominant position as a dating app provider,\" said Martijn Snoep, chairman of the ACM board.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/36b4560aea1e2ff209bde08e7fb0a0f3\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"479\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Allianz chief economist says Fed action'lags behind 'US inflation could hit 9%</b></p><p>Mohamed El-Erian, chief economist of Allianz Group, believes that the inflation rate in the United States is likely to rise further, while recession risks are \"currently tilting in a negative way.\"</p><p>\"I think you have to be very modest about what we know about the inflation process,\" El-Erian said Sunday. \"And I'm afraid it's going to get worse. At this rate, we're likely to get to 9%.\"</p><p>U.S. consumer price gains unexpectedly accelerated to a 40-year high of 8.6% year-over-year in May, potentially pushing the Federal Reserve to extend its aggressive rate hike cycle.</p><p>El-Erian once again criticized the Fed for \"lagging behind\" on inflation and said he expects a 50 basis point rate hike at this week's interest rate meeting.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"sina_symbol","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Foreign media headlines | Highlight! Fed rate hike Storm Continues</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nForeign media headlines | Highlight! Fed rate hike Storm Continues\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">环球市场播报</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-06-13 07:08</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><b>The headlines that the global financial media paid attention to last night and this morning mainly include:</b></p><p><b>1. The highlight! Fed to rate hike this week, but Powell speech may be particularly important</b><b>2. Summers urges the Fed to face up to the severity of inflation and says the risk of recession is imminent</b><b>3. Oil prices continue to soar, UK orders review of fuel market</b><b>4、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ASTR\">Astra Space</a>Rocket Launch Mission Fails, NASA Weather Satellite Lost</b><b>5. Dutch regulators said<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>Additional payment methods will be available in dating apps</b><b>6. Allianz chief economist says Fed action \"lags behind\" U.S. inflation rate may reach 9%</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3c2adadd4cdfbf839dcfc63699815f5d\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"481\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Highlight! Fed to rate hike this week, but Powell speech may be particularly important</b></p><p>The important events in the coming week may all come down to Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's speech at 2:30 p.m. EST on Wednesday.</p><p>Powell will brief the media after the Fed's two-day meeting. The Federal Reserve is widely expected to raise the federal funds target rate range by 0.5 percentage points, but the red-hot inflation data in May has caused the market to worry about whether policymakers will be more aggressive or predict a faster pace of future rate hike.</p><p>Stocks and bonds have been volatile amid investors' concerns that inflation may not peak and that rate hike could lead to a recession.</p><p>Stocks tumbled after Friday's May consumer price index came in well above expectations. For the week, the S&P 500 fell 5.1%. The index closed Friday at 3,900 points, down 2.9%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9c979b143c8dcaab8d1f208af870ba0a\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"406\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Summers urges Fed to face up to the severity of inflation, saying recession risk is imminent</b></p><p>Former U.S. Treasury Secretary Summers urged the Federal Reserve to realize the seriousness of inflation, which has accelerated to its highest level in 40 years by the time policymakers meet this week and the risk of a recession is looming.</p><p>\"When inflation is as high as it is and unemployment is as low as it is, there is almost always a recession within two years,\" he said on CNN's \"State of the Union\" Sunday. When it comes to inflation, \"the Fed's forecasts tend to be overly optimistic, and I hope they are fully aware of the seriousness of the problem.\"</p><p>Summers pointed to the risk of a possible recession next year, though he said it was \"more likely\" within the next two years.</p><p>Summers, who has been predicting high inflation since last year, said the path of inflation depends on the Russia-Ukraine conflict and its impact on oil prices. U.S. consumer prices rose 8.6% year-over-year in May, a sign that price pressures are becoming entrenched in the economy.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/32a35993591bceb2e3ecfd4a9b8961ac\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"547\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>UK orders fuel market review as oil prices continue to surge</b></p><p>The UK government has asked the competition watchdog to review the retail fuel market to see whether tariff cuts have been passed on to consumers as prices at petrol stations reach unprecedented highs.</p><p>Britain's Business Secretary Kwarteng said on Sunday that the investigation will find out why fuel prices are always rising fast but falling slowly.</p><p>The UK cut fuel duty by 5p a litre for a year in March in a £ 5 bn ($6.2bn) package to ease the burden on motorists amid a growing cost-of-living crunch for families.</p><p>However, fuel prices continue to rise in the UK, with the average cost of refueling a family car exceeding 100lbs for the first time last week. The British people are frustrated that the £ 5 billion package has not been passed on to fuel prices.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e7ef7448a731908a5f6838b48b9973cb\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"478\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Astra Space Rocket Launch Mission Fails, NASA Weather Satellite Lost</b></p><p>U.S. rocket company Astra Space's mission to send small weather-monitoring NASA satellites into orbit failed on Sunday. It is reported that the second-stage booster engine was shut down early in early space.</p><p>The failure occurred approximately 10 minutes after the successful launch of the Astra rocket 3.3 from the Space Force launch pad at Cape Canaveral, Florida.</p><p>\"We made a nominal first-stage flight. However, the engine of the higher stage did shut down early, and we didn't put the payload into orbit,\" Astra said.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3d797560c158b6042e149885c94c1dd3\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"479\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Dutch regulator says Apple will offer other payment methods in dating app</b></p><p>Apple Inc. will allow different payment methods in the Dutch dating app, the Dutch antitrust regulator said on Saturday, ending a dispute that led to a 50 million euro ($52.58 million) fine for the company.</p><p>The Dutch Consumer and Markets Authority (AMC) said in a statement: With this concession, Apple will meet the requirements set by regulators under EU and Dutch competition rules.</p><p>Apple has long mandated the use of its in-app payment system, which charges a commission of up to 30%, which some developers like Tinder owner Match Group Inc think is too high.</p><p>\"In the digital economy, powerful companies have a special responsibility to keep markets fair and open. Apple has evaded this responsibility and abused its dominant position as a dating app provider,\" said Martijn Snoep, chairman of the ACM board.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/36b4560aea1e2ff209bde08e7fb0a0f3\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"479\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Allianz chief economist says Fed action'lags behind 'US inflation could hit 9%</b></p><p>Mohamed El-Erian, chief economist of Allianz Group, believes that the inflation rate in the United States is likely to rise further, while recession risks are \"currently tilting in a negative way.\"</p><p>\"I think you have to be very modest about what we know about the inflation process,\" El-Erian said Sunday. \"And I'm afraid it's going to get worse. At this rate, we're likely to get to 9%.\"</p><p>U.S. consumer price gains unexpectedly accelerated to a 40-year high of 8.6% year-over-year in May, potentially pushing the Federal Reserve to extend its aggressive rate hike cycle.</p><p>El-Erian once again criticized the Fed for \"lagging behind\" on inflation and said he expects a 50 basis point rate hike at this week's interest rate meeting.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://cj.sina.cn/article/normal_detail?url=https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2022-06-13/doc-imizmscu6490264.shtml\">环球市场播报</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3c2adadd4cdfbf839dcfc63699815f5d","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","BK4504":"桥水持仓","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","OEX":"标普100","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","BK4564":"太空概念","BK4187":"航天航空与国防","BK4581":"高盛持仓","ASTR":"Astra Space",".DJI":"道琼斯","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares","SPY":"标普500ETF","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares"},"source_url":"https://cj.sina.cn/article/normal_detail?url=https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2022-06-13/doc-imizmscu6490264.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2243743215","content_text":"全球财经媒体昨夜今晨共同关注的头条新闻主要有：1、重头戏！美联储将在本周加息 但鲍威尔讲话可能尤为重要 2、萨默斯敦促美联储正视通胀严重性 并称衰退风险近在眼前3、油价持续飙升 英国下令对燃料市场进行审查4、Astra Space火箭发射任务失败 NASA气象卫星丢失5、荷兰监管机构称苹果将在约会应用中提供其他支付方式6、安联首席经济学家称美联储行动“落后” 美国通胀率可能达到9%重头戏！美联储将在本周加息 但鲍威尔讲话可能尤为重要未来一周重要事件可能都归结为美联储主席杰罗姆鲍威尔在美国东部时间周三下午2：30发表的讲话。鲍威尔将在美联储为期两天的会议后向媒体作简报。外界普遍预计美联储将把联邦基金目标利率区间上调0.5个百分点，但5月份炙手可热的通胀数据令市场担心决策者是否会更加激进或预测未来加息步伐会更快。由于投资者担心通胀可能不会见顶，以及加息可能导致经济衰退，股票和债券一直波动。周五的5月消费者价格指数远高于预期后，股市暴跌。本周，标普500指数下跌 5.1%。该指数周五收于3900点，下跌 2.9%。萨默斯敦促美联储正视通胀严重性 并称衰退风险近在眼前美国前财政部长萨默斯敦促美联储意识到通胀的严重性，在政策制定者本周开会时，通胀已经加速至40年来的最高水平，经济衰退的风险即将来临。他周日在美国有线电视新闻网的“国情咨文”节目中说：“当通货膨胀像现在这样高而失业率像现在这样低时，几乎总是在两年内出现衰退。” 谈到通胀，“美联储的预测往往过于乐观，我希望他们能充分意识到问题的严重性。”萨默斯指出明年可能出现衰退的风险，不过他表示，未来两年内“更有可能”发生。自去年以来一直在预测高通胀的萨默斯表示，通胀的路径取决于俄乌冲突及其对油价的影响。美国5月份消费者价格同比上涨 8.6%，这表明价格压力在经济中变得根深蒂固。油价持续飙升 英国下令对燃料市场进行审查英国政府已要求竞争监管机构审查零售燃料市场，以了解随着加油站价格达到前所未有的高位，是否已将关税削减转嫁给消费者。英国商务部长夸滕周日表示，调查将找出为什么燃料价格总是快速上涨但缓慢下降的原因。英国在3月份以50亿英镑（合62亿美元）的一揽子计划将燃油税每升降低5便士，为期一年，以减轻家庭生活成本紧缩日益严重的情况下驾驶者的负担。然而，英国燃油价格继续上涨，上周家用汽车的平均加油成本首次超过100磅。英国人民对50亿英镑的一揽子计划未被传递到燃油价格感到沮丧。Astra Space火箭发射任务失败 NASA气象卫星丢失周日，美国火箭公司Astra Space将小型天气监测NASA卫星送入轨道的任务失败了。据悉，第二级助推发动机在太空早期提前关闭。失败发生在Astra火箭3.3从佛罗里达州卡纳维拉尔角太空部队发射台成功发射大约10分钟后。“我们进行了名义上的第一级飞行。但是，更高一级的发动机确实提前关闭，我们没有将有效载荷送入轨道，”Astra公司表示。荷兰监管机构称苹果将在约会应用中提供其他支付方式荷兰反垄断监管机构周六表示，苹果公司将允许在荷兰约会应用程序中使用不同的支付方式，结束导致该公司被罚款 5000 万欧元（5258 万美元）的纠纷。荷兰消费者和市场管理局 （AMC） 在一份声明中表示：通过这一让步，苹果将满足监管机构根据欧盟和荷兰竞争规则制定的要求。苹果公司长期以来一直强制使用其应用内支付系统，该系统收取高达30%的佣金，Tinder所有者 Match Group Inc 等一些开发商认为这太高了。“在数字经济中，强大的公司负有保持市场公平和开放的特殊责任。苹果回避了这一责任，并滥用了其在约会应用程序提供商方面的主导地位，”ACM董事会主席 Martijn Snoep 表示。安联首席经济学家称美联储行动“落后” 美国通胀率可能达到9%安联集团首席经济学家穆罕默德-埃尔-埃里安（Mohamed El-Erian）认为，美国的通胀率可能会进一步上升，而衰退风险“目前正以负面的方式倾斜”。“我认为你必须对我们对通胀过程的了解保持非常谦虚，”El-Erian 周日表示。“而且我担心情况还会变得更糟。按照这个速度，我们很可能会达到9%。”美国5月份消费者价格同比涨幅意外加速至8.6%，创40年新高，可能会推动美联储延长激进的加息周期。埃里安再次批评美联储在通胀方面“落后”，并表示他预计在本周的利率会议上加息50个基点。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.6,"513500":0.6,"OEF":0.6,"NQmain":0.6,"SQQQ":0.6,"QLD":0.6,"IVV":0.6,".DJI":1,"DDM":0.6,"SPY":1,"SDS":0.6,"DJX":0.6,"QQQ":0.6,"SSO":0.6,"QID":0.6,"TQQQ":0.6,"MNQmain":0.6,"UDOW":0.6,"SPXU":0.6,".IXIC":1,".SPX":0.6,"SDOW":0.6,"UPRO":0.6,"DXD":0.6,"PSQ":0.6,"ESmain":0.6,"SH":0.6,"OEX":0.6,"ASTR":1,"DOG":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":645,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":254434989961504,"gmtCreate":1703154573703,"gmtModify":1703154578000,"author":{"id":"3572683426659077","authorId":"3572683426659077","name":"haiwei183","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1cae291bddff5a30eeb96060074d8531","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3572683426659077","idStr":"3572683426659077"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good game join&nbsp; join","listText":"Good game join&nbsp; join","text":"Good game join join","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":1,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/254434989961504","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1135,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9901388779,"gmtCreate":1659139738791,"gmtModify":1676536262480,"author":{"id":"3572683426659077","authorId":"3572683426659077","name":"haiwei183","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1cae291bddff5a30eeb96060074d8531","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3572683426659077","idStr":"3572683426659077"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"look","listText":"look","text":"look","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9901388779","repostId":"1182404599","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1182404599","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1659087664,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1182404599?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-07-29 17:41","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"How to trade US and Hong Kong stocks in Q3? Finding the intersection of bounce logic","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1182404599","media":"学恒的海外观察","summary":"第三季度或是美股和港股2022年重要的投资时间窗口美股方面，联储尚处于加息通道，且宏观层面有滞胀预期，但我们认为美股在第三季度会有一轮反弹。这主要得益于三季度的信息真空期：1）宏观层面，CPI同比难创","content":"<p><html><head></head><body><b>The third quarter may be an important investment time window for US stocks and Hong Kong stocks in 2022</b></p><p>In terms of U.S. stocks, the Federal Reserve is still in a rate hike channel, and there are expectations of stagflation at the macro level, but we believe that U.S. stocks will rebound in the third quarter. This is mainly due to the information vacuum period in the third quarter: 1) At the macro level, it is difficult for CPI to hit a new high year-on-year. It is only a matter of how much it will decline from July to August. GDP is a lagging indicator of the market and has limited impact on future stock price trends; 2) At the micro level, there is no catalyst for downward revision of corporate performance during the mid-term report season; 3) At the monetary level, the September FOMC meeting is still some time away, and the Fed's attitude has turned marginally dovish. On the disk, after the negative factors were quickly cleared, U.S. stocks can still rise day by day, reflecting that U.S. stock investors have abundant bullish strength.</p><p>In terms of Hong Kong stocks, the Hang Seng Index fell from July last year to March this year. The low-level volatility pattern has been maintained for a quarter, and the rebound potential is sufficient. Fundamentally, we believe that China's macro-economy has bottomed out in the second quarter, and the downward revision trend of individual stock performance is expected to end in the mid-term report season. There may be two situations in the second half of this year: 1) If there is a rebound in the third quarter, we recommend that investors be cautious in the fourth quarter; 2) It fluctuated at low levels in the third quarter and rebounded in the fourth quarter. In either case, we recommend that investors lay out in the third quarter and prepare for a rebound.</p><p><b>U.S. stocks: Choose the best in valuation repair space and business model</b></p><p>We provide investors with 4 rebound logics: 1) The profit forecast has not been lowered, but the valuation repair logic brought about by the oversold stock price; 2) Find a business model that resists stagflation; 3) Use high growth momentum to break through economic recession; 4) The mandatory demand for institutional investors to cover positions brought about by early oversold. The industries we recommend are:</p><p>1. First recommendation<b>Software Industry SaaS</b>Company: Plenty of room for valuation repair; The business model is rigid at the beginning of the economic recession; It belongs to an emerging industry with a high growth rate; The previous decline was large, and investors had the need to cover their positions. In line with 4/4 rebound logic, it is the first recommendation.</p><p>2. Second push<b>New energy vehicle</b>Manufacturer: Plenty of room for valuation repair; Located on the sweet spot of the permeability curve, the growth rate is expected to be high; The optional consumer sector to which it belongs has experienced a large decline in the early stage, and investors have the need to cover their positions. In line with 3/4 rebound logic, the second push.</p><p>3.<b>Semiconductor</b>Industry: There is room for valuation repair; Good cost transmission ability and anti-inflation; High growth rate; Oversold in the early stage. It conforms to the 4/4 rebound logic, but there is a risk of high performance before and then low performance. It is recommended.</p><p><b>Hong Kong stocks: Maximize the use of valuation repair and upward risk appetite</b></p><p>We provide investors with 2 main rebound logics: 1) The valuation repair logic brought about by a small/no reduction in profit forecast, but a large decline; 2) Risk appetite rises, and growth stocks benefit from the logic. And 2 secondary logics: 1) Treat the company's early repurchase behavior as management's endorsement of fundamentals; 2) Look for arbitrage space in companies with high premiums for AH shares. The industries we recommend are:</p><p>1.<b>Healthcare</b>Multiple sub-sectors, especially<b>CXO</b>And<b>Biological drugs</b>。 They have sufficient room for valuation repair and are expected to grow at a high rate, which is expected to benefit from rising risk appetite. It conforms to 2/2 of the main logic, and it is the first recommendation.</p><p>2.<b>Information Technology</b>Lower<b>Semiconductor</b>Plate. They also have better valuation repair space and higher performance growth expectations, but they must be alert to the risk of high performance before and then low performance. It conforms to 2/2 of the main logic, but there is 1 risk, which is the second push.</p><p>3. Also recommended<b>Internet companies</b>as well as<b>Hang Seng Technology Index</b>。</p><p><b>Risk warning:</b>The uncertainty of the development of the epidemic; The risk that the company's performance will fall short of expectations; International political and economic emergencies; The Fed's unexpected monetary policy style.</p><p><b>U.S. stocks: Choose the best in valuation repair space and business model</b></p><p><b>Overall outlook for U.S. stocks' trading logic in the third quarter</b></p><p>We believe that the third quarter will be an important time window for investing in US stocks this year. In the third quarter, we saw three periods of information vacuum:</p><p>1. Vacuum period of macro data. Judging from high-frequency data such as commodities, it is difficult for the CPI from July to August to exceed the 9.1% year-on-year increase in June, which is nothing more than the difference in the size of the decline. In terms of GDP, the GDP of the United States in the second quarter was-0.9% month-on-month, but the overall GDP is an indicator that lags behind the broader market, and the expected pattern of macro recession has been finalized (the inversion of US Treasury yields in 10-2 years has stabilized) does not generally constitute the impact of the market trend.</p><p>2. The vacuum period of corporate profit performance. Since the arrival of the interim report season, the semi-annual performance of U.S. stock companies has generally been in line with expectations. Although economic recession expectations are gradually taking shape at the macro level, there is still a lack of catalyst for the downward revision of corporate performance at the micro level, and we need to further wait for the performance of companies in the third quarter.</p><p>3. The vacuum period of monetary policy. Rate hike's 75bp boots landed in July, and the market expects the pace of rate hike to slow down in September. Consistent with market expectations, Fed officials' speeches and FOMC statements turned significantly marginally dove. This tendency has a small probability of reversal in the short term. At the same time, there are still 2 months before the next boots land.</p><p>From the disk point of view, we realize that the bullish power in the US market is still sufficient-the negative factors are quickly cleared in the market, and then the stock market can return to the upward trend day by day. Therefore, we believe that the third quarter of this year is an important time window for U.S. stock investment, and investors are expected to benefit from the rebound.</p><p><b>The investment logic of the US stock rebound and the first industry</b></p><p>In this rebound strategy, we use four sets of logics:</p><p>1.<b>Valuation repair logic</b>: If the company's profit forecast has been raised (or not lowered), but the stock price has fallen, it will enjoy the opportunity of priority valuation repair in the rebound market;</p><p>2.<b>Stagflation-resistant business model</b>: In the case of stagflation expectations at the macro level, companies whose business models can naturally withstand economic recession or high inflation will be favored by investors in the rebound market;</p><p>3.<b>Growth stock logic</b>: Take offense as defense, and break through the limitations of the economic recession environment with higher growth momentum;</p><p>4.<b>Oversold logic</b>: It fell much in the early stage, and it may rise much in the later stage. For institutional investors, the sectors with larger declines may have exceeded the preset lower limit of allocation ratio, and they will have to cover their positions in these oversold sectors.</p><p>We make a summary of the recommended industries:</p><p>1. First recommendation<b>Software Industry SaaS</b>Inc. In line with logic 1, there is a large room for valuation repair; According to the second logic, the prepaid income is accrued according to time, and the business model has strong short-term anti-recession ability; Logic 3, emerging industries with high growth potential; In line with logic 4, the previous decline was large, and investors had the need to cover their positions. SaaS companies in the software industry are the intersection of four rebound logics, and are the first to be recommended.</p><p>2. Second push<b>New energy vehicles in automobiles</b>。 In line with logic 1, there is a large room for valuation repair; In line with logic three, it is located at the sweet spot of the penetration curve, the growth rate is expected to be high, and it is expected to cross the cycle; In line with logic 4, the previous decline was large, and there was a need to cover positions. Four logics account for three, recommended.</p><p>3.<b>Semiconductor Industry</b>It is also one of our key recommendations. The main opportunities lie in the new energy fields and cloud computing fields, giving priority to public products. In line with logic 1, there is a large room for valuation repair; According to the second logic, the competitive landscape is stable, with strong bargaining power and cost transmission ability; In line with logic three, the growth rate is expected to be high; In line with logic 4, there is a need to cover positions. The risk lies in the large sales volume of servers and computers in the early stage, and there is a risk of overdraft demand. We must be wary of high performance before and low performance. Semiconductors account for all four rebound logics, but there is one risk, which is recommended.</p><p>4. In addition, we recommend that investors consider the hotel and entertainment sectors driven by the recovery of the epidemic, and the pharmaceutical CXO sector with large room for valuation recovery.</p><p><b>Logic 1: Valuation repair logic</b></p><p>The first logic to look for a rebound is valuation repair. Specific to the execution level, we believe that the performance expectation has not been revised downward, but stocks whose stock prices have fallen will have room for valuation repair during the rebound, showing stronger flexibility. For performance expectations, we use the adjustment range of Bloomberg's consensus expected profit of listed companies in 2023 (if the company is not profitable, we use the revenue adjustment range instead); Stock Price Performance, we use the company's stock price movement year-to-date.</p><p>We did a simple +13% treatment for the stock price decline (13% is the average decline of our sample stocks) to offset the stock price pressure that liquidity tightening brings to be fair for all stocks. For the processed rise and fall, we call it \"relative rise and fall\". If the performance adjustment range of a company minus the relative increase or decrease of the stock price is greater than 0%, it means that the stock has room for valuation repair. That is, the following formula:</p><p>Valuation repair space = performance adjustment range-relative increase and decrease</p><p>One point to add is that in addition to the quantitative limitation of valuation repair space, valuation repair also has a qualitative requirement-it must fall in the early stage, not rise. A typical case that is not suitable for valuation repair logic is the energy sector. Since the beginning of the year, the performance increase of the energy sector has been greater than the increase in stock prices. However, the stock price is generally rising, not falling, so there is no way to talk about a \"rebound\".</p><p>From the data point of view, the sectors with large room for valuation repair are:</p><p>1.<b>Non-daily consumer goods (optional consumption)-automobile segment</b>There is a lot of room for valuation repair. But looking at it, the valuation restoration space of this sector is basically concentrated on new energy vehicle manufacturers represented by Tesla (TSLA US).</p><p>2.<b>Information Technology-Semiconductor Segment</b>, the performance in the first half of this year was generally raised, but the stock price fell. Subdivided companies with large room for valuation repair include automotive semiconductor manufacturers (such as ON Semiconductor ON US) and GPU manufacturers with cloud concepts (such as NVDA US and AMD US).</p><p>3.<b>IT-Software Industry</b>The differentiation of valuation repair space is relatively serious, but there are some stocks with advanced valuation repair space, generally SaaS companies.</p><p>4.<b>Healthcare-Life Sciences Tools & Services (CXO)</b>Generally, there is a certain room for valuation repair. Includes some companies whose performance has been revised upward, but whose stock prices have fallen sharply.</p><p>5.<b>Information Technology-Communication equipment</b>The change in performance expectations is relatively stable, but the decline is relatively large. It is expected to attract the attention of defensive-style investors in the next rally.</p><p>Those industries that have a lot of room for valuation repair, but we do not highly recommend:</p><p>1.<b>Finance-Commercial Banking</b>There is also a relatively large room for valuation repair, mainly due to the relatively large increase in bank performance in the early stage, which has a certain allocation value. However, banks have a large market value and are not our first choice when pursuing a rebound.</p><p>2.<b>energy</b>The valuation repair space readings are high. However, in the first half of the year, energy was on the rise, and there was no way to talk about a \"rebound\", so we do not recommend it.</p><p>3.<b>Industrial-Building Products</b>There is relatively large room for valuation repair, but their performance expectations generally show a slight downward trend, and there may be a lack of catalysts for rebound.</p><p>4.<b>Raw materials</b>The industry is facing pressure from high-frequency commodity price data peaking and falling back. At the same time, due to high operating leverage, slight changes in revenue may cause drastic fluctuations in profits. We recommend careful consideration.</p><p>5. We will not go into details about industries with too small sample size.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9fcf7716e176d14fb293c49d27e6d3cb\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"755\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/29ec42def97349edfa95c07fdf1879cd\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"637\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4c824c1fc42398bc9fc05b99707ff3b9\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"510\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/72bf5f271d8a8fa1ac2d7d52b0152d62\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"649\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Logic 2: Anti-stagflation business model</b></p><p>The two key words of stagflation, one is \"stagflation\"-representing economic recession; One is \"inflation\"-representing rising costs. So, we need to find a business model that can fight the recession or transmit costs. We will give examples of several industries.</p><p><b>Software Industry SaaS Company</b></p><p>SaaS companies in the software industry are one of our most optimistic segments. Their revenue side adopts the customer prepaid subscription model, charging customers a fee in advance, determining the length of service time, and then recognizing this fee as revenue monthly/quarterly. On the cost side, the main cost of SaaS companies is marketing expenditure, and marketing expenditure is also paid to sales staff first, and then gradually confirmed with revenue. Therefore, SaaS companies will show strong performance rigidity and reflect their advantages in the early stages of the economic recession. Examples of such SaaS companies include cloud platform security system provider Datadog (DDOG US), cloud data platform company Zscaler (ZS US), and identification system company OKTA (OKTA US).</p><p>At the same time, we should be cautious about other models of software companies. Their revenue comes from IT expenditure in enterprise capital expenditure-an expenditure that is highly sensitive to the economic cycle.</p><p><b>Internet intermediary platform</b></p><p>In terms of fighting inflation, we believe that some Internet intermediary platforms will perform very well. Their revenue is usually based on GMV-the volume of transactions on the platform, multiplied by a fixed rate (take rate). With high inflation, their GMV will rise with rapidly increasing prices. An example of this is Airbnb (ABNB US), which provides travelers with accommodation intermediary services and charges based on the GBV (a variation of the GMV). Since the year-on-year growth rate of hotel projects in the CPI has been at a high level of about 20% recently, Airbnb's GBV, and then revenue, will also be driven upward by the higher growth rate of wine and travel prices. Some companies under the Internet Marketing and Direct Retail segment also fall into this category, such as Amazon (AMZN US) and eBay (EBAY US).</p><p><b>Semiconductor Manufacturing</b></p><p>In addition, we are optimistic about some manufacturing companies with strong bargaining power, such as the semiconductor manufacturing industry-they have high technical barriers and a relatively stable market structure. For leaders, there is some room to increase prices according to demand. This helps them transmit the pressure on the cost side downstream. In these companies, the price of consumer products, such as CPUs used in PCs, will be relatively inelastic. Companies with a higher proportion of corporate business will have a greater advantage, because corporate products are more price elastic than consumer products. More typical examples are automotive semiconductor manufacturers, such as ON US.</p><p><b>Logic 3: Growth stock logic</b></p><p>As we mentioned in our interim strategy report, growth is precious in times of economic downturn. We believe growth is the best defense. Therefore, we also recommend that investors give priority to industries and targets with higher expected growth rates. If these targets also have the previous two logics, it is the best choice.</p><p>At present, several industries with relatively high expected growth rates are as follows:</p><p>1.<b>Optional consumption</b>, the main growth point is<b>automobile</b>And<b>Hotel catering</b>INDUSTRY. Wherein,<b>automobile</b>There is a big differentiation within the sector. New energy car companies Tesla (TSLA US) and Lucid (LCID US) have higher growth expectations, while the growth expectations of traditional car companies are relatively mediocre.<b>Hotel catering</b>It mainly benefits from the fact that the hotel industry is recovering from the epidemic, with two driving factors: low base and concentrated demand outbreak, and the growth rate of catering (especially fast food) is relatively mediocre.</p><p>2.<b>Communication Services</b>In the plate,<b>recreation</b>The growth rate of the industry is relatively strong. The main high-growth companies are Walt Disney (DIS US) involved in travel concepts, concert hosting company Live Nation (LYV US) and game company Electronic Arts (EA US). The first two mainly benefit from the recovery of social activities, while the latter has a relatively stable and rapid growth in in-game value-added service revenue.</p><p>3.<b>Information Technology</b>Under-plate<b>Semiconductor</b>And<b>Software industry</b>。 Wherein,<b>Semiconductor</b>There are many high-growth companies in the industry. But we must be wary of companies with high growth expectations in 2022 and low growth expectations in 2023. Because the sales of computers and servers are relatively high in the near future, we should be wary of the risk of overdraft of early demand and the performance of related companies in 2022 will be high before and then low. We focus on selecting companies that analysts believe can still increase their performance in 2023, such as MRVL US, Enphase Energy (ENPH US), SolarEdge Technology (SEDG US), and Nvidia (NVDA US).<b>Software industry</b>, we believe that it should be further distinguished into traditional software companies and SaaS companies. The expected growth rate of SaaS companies is second only to the new energy vehicle sector, such as Datadog (DDOG US) and Zscaler (ZS US), which are our highly recommended industries.</p><p>4. For industries with high CAGR but too uneven growth rates or too small sample sizes in 2022 and 2023, we do not recommend sectors.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e221f9b70bf80ea6a2d3d13e63ec9436\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"728\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1ea2617cdcee9c2759498d8c8d540948\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"665\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/95f8b0b4d4d07b5ee9bdd21a35855718\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"738\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b7a6e719cf587946d7cf63bb33bae409\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"392\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Logic 4: Oversold logic</b></p><p>Since institutional investors usually have pre-determined position structure requirements (for example, the proportion of a certain sector's shareholding in the investment portfolio must be within a certain range), in the case of uneven rises and falls of various sectors in the market, the previous increase The sector with a larger increase will face a greater selling pressure, and the sector with a larger decline will benefit from investors' demand for covering positions.</p><p>We use the GICS plate as a reference standard. It is not difficult to see that the performance of the U.S. stock energy sector in the first half of 2022 is unique. This means that the proportion of stocks in the energy sector in the positions of institutional investors may have exceeded the predetermined upper limit of the position ratio. In this case, investors will have to reduce their holdings of shares in the energy sector. On the contrary,<b>Communication Services</b>、<b>Optional consumption</b>And<b>Information Technology</b>Sectors have experienced large year-to-date declines, so they are more likely to have broken through the lower limit of investors' positions in these sectors, in which case investors will have to increase their allocation to these sectors.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bc0e5300923df0191ae42145fa455991\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"515\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Risk: Be wary of high-frequency production/sales data</b></p><p>One point that needs to be emphasized is that we believe that the performance expectations of US stock companies are not without room for downward adjustment, but there is a short-term lack of catalysts. Therefore, when we use the information vacuum to trade, we must be alert to the emergence of high-frequency data, such as retail data-they cover food and beverage, automobiles, drugs, clothing, energy and other segments. Therefore, if we seize short-term opportunities in the US market with stagflation expectations, these areas need to be extra cautious. In terms of price data, we don't think there is need to worry too much, because as far as we have observed so far, the market is generally price-neutral in fundamental trading.</p><p><b>Hong Kong stocks: Maximize the use of valuation repair and upward risk appetite</b></p><p><b>Brief introduction of short-term market conditions of Hong Kong stocks</b></p><p>Since the high point in February 2021, the Hang Seng Index first experienced a plateau period from March to June, remaining volatile at 29,000 points. The decline began in July 2021 and bottomed out in March 2022. The Hang Seng Index is currently fluctuating at a low level of 20,000-23,000 points. From a macro perspective, China's economy bottomed out in the second quarter, and the macro aspect is expected to achieve a V-shaped reversal in the third quarter. From a micro perspective, the downward revision trend of company performance in the Hong Kong stock market has continued for a whole year from July 2021 to the present. With the advent of the performance period in the second quarter, we believe that the downward revision of performance is expected to be generally completed before the silent period, and the market's expectation of the company is expected to stabilize with the end of the performance period. For now, we believe that Hong Kong stocks have accumulated strong rebound potential. There are two possibilities in the second half of the year:</p><p>1. Hong Kong stocks rebounded in the third quarter. Then our suggestion is that investors can consider completing the layout and taking profits in the third quarter, and wait and see cautiously in the fourth quarter.</p><p>2. Hong Kong stocks maintained a low and volatile trend in the third quarter. Then we believe that Hong Kong stocks will achieve a U-shaped reversal in the fourth quarter of this year after macroeconomic risks are cleared.</p><p>No matter which situation happens, our advice to investors is to make a good layout in the third quarter.</p><p><b>Hong Kong stock market rebound logic in the third quarter and main industries</b></p><p>We believe that there are the following four logics for the rebound of Hong Kong stocks. The first two are the main logics and the latter two are the supplementary logics:</p><p>1.<b>Valuation repair logic</b>。 Like U.S. stocks, the previous decline was relatively large, but if the downward revision of performance expectations is not as good as the decline, there is room for valuation repair.</p><p>2.<b>Risk preference switching logic</b>。 We found that at the high level of the market, companies with high growth rates have greater valuation advantages; At the low level of the market, the valuation premium of high-growth companies decreases. Therefore, from an overall perspective, when the market rebounds from low to high, high-growth companies will benefit from the valuation increase brought about by the switch of market risk appetite. We call this a \"risk appetite pointer\".</p><p>3.<b>Share repurchase logic</b>。 As mentioned in the \"Special Research on Hong Kong Stock Share Repurchase-Repurchase Data Bottom-Hunting Strategy-Using Collective Wisdom\" (April 27, 2022) we released earlier, we believe that listed companies have sent signals at the macro level: They believe that their stock price is undervalued at 23,000 points on the Hang Seng Index. Despite the later military conflict between Russia and Ukraine and two black swan incidents in Shanghai and COVID-19 pandemic, we believe that the long-term value of most domestic companies will not change significantly. We can look for companies with large repurchase volume in this round of decline to invest in, because their prospects are more endorsed by the company's management. At the micro level, this is a secondary logic, and it is recommended to be used in conjunction with the above two main logics.</p><p>4.<b>AH share premium logic</b>。 At present, the Shanghai-Hong Kong AH premium index has been at the top position since the opening of Hong Kong Stock Connect, and has a certain correction potential. We believe that stocks with AH dual listings and historically high premiums are also worthy of investors' consideration. This is a secondary logic.</p><p>To sum up the above four rebound logics, our key recommendations are as follows:</p><p>1. Top recommendation<b>Healthcare</b>All sub-sections except chemicals are listed. Especially recommended<b>CXO and biopharmaceuticals segments</b>。 They have both valuation repair space and high growth expectations, while benefiting from the first two rebound logics.</p><p>2. Second recommendation<b>Information Technology</b>Lower<b>Semiconductor</b>Plate. This sector has both valuation repair space and risk appetite switching logic, but we must be alert to the risk of some individual stocks' performance in 2022-2023 being high before and then low.</p><p>3. Additionally recommended<b>New energy vehicles and advertising in the media</b>Plate. They have high growth expectations, belong to emerging industries, and may benefit from the switch of risk appetite.</p><p>4. Finally, we recommend<b>Internet companies</b>, they are the core stocks that have attracted much attention in Hong Kong stocks, and are likely to become the standard bearer of the rebound of Hong Kong stocks.</p><p>5. The stocks we recommend cover most of the constituent stocks of the Hang Seng Technology Index. Therefore, we recommend at the index level<b>Hang Seng Technology</b>。</p><p><b>Logic 1: Valuation repair logic</b></p><p>Similar to the valuation repair logic we use in U.S. stocks, if the reduction in performance expectations of a stock/industry is less than the decline in stock prices, then there is room for valuation repair in the rebound.</p><p>We uniformly adopted a +31% treatment for the rise and fall of stock prices (31% is the average decline of sample stocks in the second half of 2021 to date) to distinguish companies that have fallen larger than and smaller than the prevailing situation. When calculating the valuation repair space, for companies with stable profits, we take the change of profit expectations as the standard, and for companies that cannot make stable profits, we take the revenue expectations as the standard.</p><p>Based on the data, we make recommendations for the following industries in terms of valuation repair logic:</p><p>1.<b>Healthcare</b>Multiple sub-sections under. We highly recommend<b>CXO and biopharmaceuticals segments</b>, these companies generally experienced a sharp pullback/retracement in stock prices in the early stage, but their performance expectations have been raised. Furthermore,<b>Medical and Health Equipment and Services</b>The sector also has ample room for valuation repair.</p><p>2.<b>Information Technology</b>Two sub-plates under.<b>Semiconductor</b>There is great differentiation within the industry, and there is plenty of room for valuation repair of SMIC (981 HK) and Hua Hong Semiconductor (1347 HK).<b>Technology hardware</b>Mainly Xiaomi and Lenovo, the sample size is small, so it is not recommended for the sector.</p><p>3. The sample size of dealers under optional consumption and building products under industry is too small to be repeated; The median early decline of shipping under industry is low, and there is no room for operation under the rebound logic, so it is not recommended.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6da8772831406f08d537f0be3654a440\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"736\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f41003be5c098c8c43962a38b9021624\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"661\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9ae84e4ee3eb70a4f151573ae0496af7\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"863\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/56bc30ba442fac3d8b344365b7ad722c\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"394\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Logic 2: Risk preference switching logic</b></p><p>We compared the expected 2-year CAGR of revenue and the PS at that time at two time points (revenue and PS are mainly used to cover unprofitable companies). These two time points are the end of February 2021-the high level of the Hang Seng Index, and current.</p><p>We find that when the market is at a high point, the valuation advantage of high-growth stocks is amplified; When the market goes down, the valuation advantage of high-growth stocks will be reduced. We believe this is mainly due to the switch of market risk appetite. From the perspective of graphics, the stock expectation-valuation regression line at different points in time seems to have been rotated, so we call it the \"risk appetite pointer\".</p><p>Since February 2021, the \"risk appetite pointer\" has rotated clockwise with the downward trend of the market, and the valuation advantage of high-growth stocks has been weakened; On the contrary, when there is a rebound opportunity in the market, we believe that these high-growth stocks will also benefit from the counterclockwise rotation of the \"risk appetite pointer\" and the rise of risk appetite at the valuation level. Combined with the expectation of improving fundamentals in the third quarter, high-growth stocks are expected to usher in Davis' double-click.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/60b8beaee31c9d313677b2799c73ee5e\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"519\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>From an industry perspective, the following industries currently have high growth expectations:</p><p>1.<b>Cars under optional consumption</b>。<b>Automotive segment</b>Mainly benefiting from some companies participating in the new energy vehicle market, the growth rate of traditional automobile manufacturing companies is relatively low. So we advise investors to lock in<b>New energy vehicle</b>, not all car companies.</p><p>2.<b>Semiconductor sector under information technology</b>。 Except for individual stocks, they generally have relatively optimistic revenue CAGR expectations. However, we recommend that investors pay attention to the risk of high and low performance when selecting semiconductor companies.</p><p>3.<b>Healthcare</b>Multiple sub-sectors under, especially<b>Biological drugs</b>。 Except for the pharmaceutical sector, the healthcare sector showed a gratifying growth trend. The growth rate of the pharmaceutical sub-sector is low, mainly due to the drag down of traditional chemical pharmaceutical companies.</p><p>4.<b>Media segment under Communication Services</b>, especially the performance growth rate of advertising companies is expected to be relatively high.</p><p>5. Hotel catering under optional consumption and airline sub-sectors under industry both have high growth expectations, but they are both traditional industries that benefit from the logic of epidemic recovery. Although the growth rate is expected to be high, it may not benefit from the rise in risk appetite.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/196f861399211f74f7dadbd6d51b238c\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"710\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>Logic 3: Share repurchase logic</b></p><p>In our earlier special report \"Special Research on Hong Kong Stock Share Repurchase-Bottom-hunting Strategy for Repurchase Data-Using Collective Wisdom\" (April 27, 2022), we conducted a study on the relationship between the company's repurchase behavior and the broader market and individual stocks research. We believe that the company's early repurchase behavior is also a bonus, which can be understood as the company's \"bottom-hunting\" of its own stocks.</p><p>When the first two more important rebound logics are in place, the company's repurchase behavior provides us with further protection. But this is a secondary logic, and we recommend that investors only use it as a useful addition.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c367411a0e2146523849f12059ec165b\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"609\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Logic 4: AH share premium logic</b></p><p>Hong Kong Stock Connect was opened in November 2014. We observed the premium of AH shares since 2015 and found that the premium of AH shares has reached a high level at present, breaking through the +1 standard deviation level for a considerable distance. For companies listed in AH and AH, we believe that the high premium of AH shares will also help the H shares of related companies to achieve a stock price rebound.</p><p>However, we generally believe that this logic is not enough to support the companies listed in AH and AH alone to create excess returns. We suggest that investors choose the best among the companies listed in AH and AH on the basis of combining the first two main rebound logics. Relevant overlapping targets include biopharmaceuticals, CXO companies, some new energy vehicle industry chain companies, and a small number of semiconductor companies</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd85f18d2127e76f6975518f8fcc0ccc\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"515\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Risk warning</b></p><p>The uncertainty of the development of the epidemic; The risk that the company's performance will fall short of expectations; International political and economic emergencies; The Fed's unexpected monetary policy style.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"w19319","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>How to trade US and Hong Kong stocks in Q3? Finding the intersection of bounce logic</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHow to trade US and Hong Kong stocks in Q3? Finding the intersection of bounce logic\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">学恒的海外观察</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-07-29 17:41</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><b>The third quarter may be an important investment time window for US stocks and Hong Kong stocks in 2022</b></p><p>In terms of U.S. stocks, the Federal Reserve is still in a rate hike channel, and there are expectations of stagflation at the macro level, but we believe that U.S. stocks will rebound in the third quarter. This is mainly due to the information vacuum period in the third quarter: 1) At the macro level, it is difficult for CPI to hit a new high year-on-year. It is only a matter of how much it will decline from July to August. GDP is a lagging indicator of the market and has limited impact on future stock price trends; 2) At the micro level, there is no catalyst for downward revision of corporate performance during the mid-term report season; 3) At the monetary level, the September FOMC meeting is still some time away, and the Fed's attitude has turned marginally dovish. On the disk, after the negative factors were quickly cleared, U.S. stocks can still rise day by day, reflecting that U.S. stock investors have abundant bullish strength.</p><p>In terms of Hong Kong stocks, the Hang Seng Index fell from July last year to March this year. The low-level volatility pattern has been maintained for a quarter, and the rebound potential is sufficient. Fundamentally, we believe that China's macro-economy has bottomed out in the second quarter, and the downward revision trend of individual stock performance is expected to end in the mid-term report season. There may be two situations in the second half of this year: 1) If there is a rebound in the third quarter, we recommend that investors be cautious in the fourth quarter; 2) It fluctuated at low levels in the third quarter and rebounded in the fourth quarter. In either case, we recommend that investors lay out in the third quarter and prepare for a rebound.</p><p><b>U.S. stocks: Choose the best in valuation repair space and business model</b></p><p>We provide investors with 4 rebound logics: 1) The profit forecast has not been lowered, but the valuation repair logic brought about by the oversold stock price; 2) Find a business model that resists stagflation; 3) Use high growth momentum to break through economic recession; 4) The mandatory demand for institutional investors to cover positions brought about by early oversold. The industries we recommend are:</p><p>1. First recommendation<b>Software Industry SaaS</b>Company: Plenty of room for valuation repair; The business model is rigid at the beginning of the economic recession; It belongs to an emerging industry with a high growth rate; The previous decline was large, and investors had the need to cover their positions. In line with 4/4 rebound logic, it is the first recommendation.</p><p>2. Second push<b>New energy vehicle</b>Manufacturer: Plenty of room for valuation repair; Located on the sweet spot of the permeability curve, the growth rate is expected to be high; The optional consumer sector to which it belongs has experienced a large decline in the early stage, and investors have the need to cover their positions. In line with 3/4 rebound logic, the second push.</p><p>3.<b>Semiconductor</b>Industry: There is room for valuation repair; Good cost transmission ability and anti-inflation; High growth rate; Oversold in the early stage. It conforms to the 4/4 rebound logic, but there is a risk of high performance before and then low performance. It is recommended.</p><p><b>Hong Kong stocks: Maximize the use of valuation repair and upward risk appetite</b></p><p>We provide investors with 2 main rebound logics: 1) The valuation repair logic brought about by a small/no reduction in profit forecast, but a large decline; 2) Risk appetite rises, and growth stocks benefit from the logic. And 2 secondary logics: 1) Treat the company's early repurchase behavior as management's endorsement of fundamentals; 2) Look for arbitrage space in companies with high premiums for AH shares. The industries we recommend are:</p><p>1.<b>Healthcare</b>Multiple sub-sectors, especially<b>CXO</b>And<b>Biological drugs</b>。 They have sufficient room for valuation repair and are expected to grow at a high rate, which is expected to benefit from rising risk appetite. It conforms to 2/2 of the main logic, and it is the first recommendation.</p><p>2.<b>Information Technology</b>Lower<b>Semiconductor</b>Plate. They also have better valuation repair space and higher performance growth expectations, but they must be alert to the risk of high performance before and then low performance. It conforms to 2/2 of the main logic, but there is 1 risk, which is the second push.</p><p>3. Also recommended<b>Internet companies</b>as well as<b>Hang Seng Technology Index</b>。</p><p><b>Risk warning:</b>The uncertainty of the development of the epidemic; The risk that the company's performance will fall short of expectations; International political and economic emergencies; The Fed's unexpected monetary policy style.</p><p><b>U.S. stocks: Choose the best in valuation repair space and business model</b></p><p><b>Overall outlook for U.S. stocks' trading logic in the third quarter</b></p><p>We believe that the third quarter will be an important time window for investing in US stocks this year. In the third quarter, we saw three periods of information vacuum:</p><p>1. Vacuum period of macro data. Judging from high-frequency data such as commodities, it is difficult for the CPI from July to August to exceed the 9.1% year-on-year increase in June, which is nothing more than the difference in the size of the decline. In terms of GDP, the GDP of the United States in the second quarter was-0.9% month-on-month, but the overall GDP is an indicator that lags behind the broader market, and the expected pattern of macro recession has been finalized (the inversion of US Treasury yields in 10-2 years has stabilized) does not generally constitute the impact of the market trend.</p><p>2. The vacuum period of corporate profit performance. Since the arrival of the interim report season, the semi-annual performance of U.S. stock companies has generally been in line with expectations. Although economic recession expectations are gradually taking shape at the macro level, there is still a lack of catalyst for the downward revision of corporate performance at the micro level, and we need to further wait for the performance of companies in the third quarter.</p><p>3. The vacuum period of monetary policy. Rate hike's 75bp boots landed in July, and the market expects the pace of rate hike to slow down in September. Consistent with market expectations, Fed officials' speeches and FOMC statements turned significantly marginally dove. This tendency has a small probability of reversal in the short term. At the same time, there are still 2 months before the next boots land.</p><p>From the disk point of view, we realize that the bullish power in the US market is still sufficient-the negative factors are quickly cleared in the market, and then the stock market can return to the upward trend day by day. Therefore, we believe that the third quarter of this year is an important time window for U.S. stock investment, and investors are expected to benefit from the rebound.</p><p><b>The investment logic of the US stock rebound and the first industry</b></p><p>In this rebound strategy, we use four sets of logics:</p><p>1.<b>Valuation repair logic</b>: If the company's profit forecast has been raised (or not lowered), but the stock price has fallen, it will enjoy the opportunity of priority valuation repair in the rebound market;</p><p>2.<b>Stagflation-resistant business model</b>: In the case of stagflation expectations at the macro level, companies whose business models can naturally withstand economic recession or high inflation will be favored by investors in the rebound market;</p><p>3.<b>Growth stock logic</b>: Take offense as defense, and break through the limitations of the economic recession environment with higher growth momentum;</p><p>4.<b>Oversold logic</b>: It fell much in the early stage, and it may rise much in the later stage. For institutional investors, the sectors with larger declines may have exceeded the preset lower limit of allocation ratio, and they will have to cover their positions in these oversold sectors.</p><p>We make a summary of the recommended industries:</p><p>1. First recommendation<b>Software Industry SaaS</b>Inc. In line with logic 1, there is a large room for valuation repair; According to the second logic, the prepaid income is accrued according to time, and the business model has strong short-term anti-recession ability; Logic 3, emerging industries with high growth potential; In line with logic 4, the previous decline was large, and investors had the need to cover their positions. SaaS companies in the software industry are the intersection of four rebound logics, and are the first to be recommended.</p><p>2. Second push<b>New energy vehicles in automobiles</b>。 In line with logic 1, there is a large room for valuation repair; In line with logic three, it is located at the sweet spot of the penetration curve, the growth rate is expected to be high, and it is expected to cross the cycle; In line with logic 4, the previous decline was large, and there was a need to cover positions. Four logics account for three, recommended.</p><p>3.<b>Semiconductor Industry</b>It is also one of our key recommendations. The main opportunities lie in the new energy fields and cloud computing fields, giving priority to public products. In line with logic 1, there is a large room for valuation repair; According to the second logic, the competitive landscape is stable, with strong bargaining power and cost transmission ability; In line with logic three, the growth rate is expected to be high; In line with logic 4, there is a need to cover positions. The risk lies in the large sales volume of servers and computers in the early stage, and there is a risk of overdraft demand. We must be wary of high performance before and low performance. Semiconductors account for all four rebound logics, but there is one risk, which is recommended.</p><p>4. In addition, we recommend that investors consider the hotel and entertainment sectors driven by the recovery of the epidemic, and the pharmaceutical CXO sector with large room for valuation recovery.</p><p><b>Logic 1: Valuation repair logic</b></p><p>The first logic to look for a rebound is valuation repair. Specific to the execution level, we believe that the performance expectation has not been revised downward, but stocks whose stock prices have fallen will have room for valuation repair during the rebound, showing stronger flexibility. For performance expectations, we use the adjustment range of Bloomberg's consensus expected profit of listed companies in 2023 (if the company is not profitable, we use the revenue adjustment range instead); Stock Price Performance, we use the company's stock price movement year-to-date.</p><p>We did a simple +13% treatment for the stock price decline (13% is the average decline of our sample stocks) to offset the stock price pressure that liquidity tightening brings to be fair for all stocks. For the processed rise and fall, we call it \"relative rise and fall\". If the performance adjustment range of a company minus the relative increase or decrease of the stock price is greater than 0%, it means that the stock has room for valuation repair. That is, the following formula:</p><p>Valuation repair space = performance adjustment range-relative increase and decrease</p><p>One point to add is that in addition to the quantitative limitation of valuation repair space, valuation repair also has a qualitative requirement-it must fall in the early stage, not rise. A typical case that is not suitable for valuation repair logic is the energy sector. Since the beginning of the year, the performance increase of the energy sector has been greater than the increase in stock prices. However, the stock price is generally rising, not falling, so there is no way to talk about a \"rebound\".</p><p>From the data point of view, the sectors with large room for valuation repair are:</p><p>1.<b>Non-daily consumer goods (optional consumption)-automobile segment</b>There is a lot of room for valuation repair. But looking at it, the valuation restoration space of this sector is basically concentrated on new energy vehicle manufacturers represented by Tesla (TSLA US).</p><p>2.<b>Information Technology-Semiconductor Segment</b>, the performance in the first half of this year was generally raised, but the stock price fell. Subdivided companies with large room for valuation repair include automotive semiconductor manufacturers (such as ON Semiconductor ON US) and GPU manufacturers with cloud concepts (such as NVDA US and AMD US).</p><p>3.<b>IT-Software Industry</b>The differentiation of valuation repair space is relatively serious, but there are some stocks with advanced valuation repair space, generally SaaS companies.</p><p>4.<b>Healthcare-Life Sciences Tools & Services (CXO)</b>Generally, there is a certain room for valuation repair. Includes some companies whose performance has been revised upward, but whose stock prices have fallen sharply.</p><p>5.<b>Information Technology-Communication equipment</b>The change in performance expectations is relatively stable, but the decline is relatively large. It is expected to attract the attention of defensive-style investors in the next rally.</p><p>Those industries that have a lot of room for valuation repair, but we do not highly recommend:</p><p>1.<b>Finance-Commercial Banking</b>There is also a relatively large room for valuation repair, mainly due to the relatively large increase in bank performance in the early stage, which has a certain allocation value. However, banks have a large market value and are not our first choice when pursuing a rebound.</p><p>2.<b>energy</b>The valuation repair space readings are high. However, in the first half of the year, energy was on the rise, and there was no way to talk about a \"rebound\", so we do not recommend it.</p><p>3.<b>Industrial-Building Products</b>There is relatively large room for valuation repair, but their performance expectations generally show a slight downward trend, and there may be a lack of catalysts for rebound.</p><p>4.<b>Raw materials</b>The industry is facing pressure from high-frequency commodity price data peaking and falling back. At the same time, due to high operating leverage, slight changes in revenue may cause drastic fluctuations in profits. We recommend careful consideration.</p><p>5. We will not go into details about industries with too small sample size.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9fcf7716e176d14fb293c49d27e6d3cb\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"755\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/29ec42def97349edfa95c07fdf1879cd\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"637\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4c824c1fc42398bc9fc05b99707ff3b9\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"510\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/72bf5f271d8a8fa1ac2d7d52b0152d62\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"649\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Logic 2: Anti-stagflation business model</b></p><p>The two key words of stagflation, one is \"stagflation\"-representing economic recession; One is \"inflation\"-representing rising costs. So, we need to find a business model that can fight the recession or transmit costs. We will give examples of several industries.</p><p><b>Software Industry SaaS Company</b></p><p>SaaS companies in the software industry are one of our most optimistic segments. Their revenue side adopts the customer prepaid subscription model, charging customers a fee in advance, determining the length of service time, and then recognizing this fee as revenue monthly/quarterly. On the cost side, the main cost of SaaS companies is marketing expenditure, and marketing expenditure is also paid to sales staff first, and then gradually confirmed with revenue. Therefore, SaaS companies will show strong performance rigidity and reflect their advantages in the early stages of the economic recession. Examples of such SaaS companies include cloud platform security system provider Datadog (DDOG US), cloud data platform company Zscaler (ZS US), and identification system company OKTA (OKTA US).</p><p>At the same time, we should be cautious about other models of software companies. Their revenue comes from IT expenditure in enterprise capital expenditure-an expenditure that is highly sensitive to the economic cycle.</p><p><b>Internet intermediary platform</b></p><p>In terms of fighting inflation, we believe that some Internet intermediary platforms will perform very well. Their revenue is usually based on GMV-the volume of transactions on the platform, multiplied by a fixed rate (take rate). With high inflation, their GMV will rise with rapidly increasing prices. An example of this is Airbnb (ABNB US), which provides travelers with accommodation intermediary services and charges based on the GBV (a variation of the GMV). Since the year-on-year growth rate of hotel projects in the CPI has been at a high level of about 20% recently, Airbnb's GBV, and then revenue, will also be driven upward by the higher growth rate of wine and travel prices. Some companies under the Internet Marketing and Direct Retail segment also fall into this category, such as Amazon (AMZN US) and eBay (EBAY US).</p><p><b>Semiconductor Manufacturing</b></p><p>In addition, we are optimistic about some manufacturing companies with strong bargaining power, such as the semiconductor manufacturing industry-they have high technical barriers and a relatively stable market structure. For leaders, there is some room to increase prices according to demand. This helps them transmit the pressure on the cost side downstream. In these companies, the price of consumer products, such as CPUs used in PCs, will be relatively inelastic. Companies with a higher proportion of corporate business will have a greater advantage, because corporate products are more price elastic than consumer products. More typical examples are automotive semiconductor manufacturers, such as ON US.</p><p><b>Logic 3: Growth stock logic</b></p><p>As we mentioned in our interim strategy report, growth is precious in times of economic downturn. We believe growth is the best defense. Therefore, we also recommend that investors give priority to industries and targets with higher expected growth rates. If these targets also have the previous two logics, it is the best choice.</p><p>At present, several industries with relatively high expected growth rates are as follows:</p><p>1.<b>Optional consumption</b>, the main growth point is<b>automobile</b>And<b>Hotel catering</b>INDUSTRY. Wherein,<b>automobile</b>There is a big differentiation within the sector. New energy car companies Tesla (TSLA US) and Lucid (LCID US) have higher growth expectations, while the growth expectations of traditional car companies are relatively mediocre.<b>Hotel catering</b>It mainly benefits from the fact that the hotel industry is recovering from the epidemic, with two driving factors: low base and concentrated demand outbreak, and the growth rate of catering (especially fast food) is relatively mediocre.</p><p>2.<b>Communication Services</b>In the plate,<b>recreation</b>The growth rate of the industry is relatively strong. The main high-growth companies are Walt Disney (DIS US) involved in travel concepts, concert hosting company Live Nation (LYV US) and game company Electronic Arts (EA US). The first two mainly benefit from the recovery of social activities, while the latter has a relatively stable and rapid growth in in-game value-added service revenue.</p><p>3.<b>Information Technology</b>Under-plate<b>Semiconductor</b>And<b>Software industry</b>。 Wherein,<b>Semiconductor</b>There are many high-growth companies in the industry. But we must be wary of companies with high growth expectations in 2022 and low growth expectations in 2023. Because the sales of computers and servers are relatively high in the near future, we should be wary of the risk of overdraft of early demand and the performance of related companies in 2022 will be high before and then low. We focus on selecting companies that analysts believe can still increase their performance in 2023, such as MRVL US, Enphase Energy (ENPH US), SolarEdge Technology (SEDG US), and Nvidia (NVDA US).<b>Software industry</b>, we believe that it should be further distinguished into traditional software companies and SaaS companies. The expected growth rate of SaaS companies is second only to the new energy vehicle sector, such as Datadog (DDOG US) and Zscaler (ZS US), which are our highly recommended industries.</p><p>4. For industries with high CAGR but too uneven growth rates or too small sample sizes in 2022 and 2023, we do not recommend sectors.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e221f9b70bf80ea6a2d3d13e63ec9436\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"728\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1ea2617cdcee9c2759498d8c8d540948\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"665\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/95f8b0b4d4d07b5ee9bdd21a35855718\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"738\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b7a6e719cf587946d7cf63bb33bae409\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"392\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Logic 4: Oversold logic</b></p><p>Since institutional investors usually have pre-determined position structure requirements (for example, the proportion of a certain sector's shareholding in the investment portfolio must be within a certain range), in the case of uneven rises and falls of various sectors in the market, the previous increase The sector with a larger increase will face a greater selling pressure, and the sector with a larger decline will benefit from investors' demand for covering positions.</p><p>We use the GICS plate as a reference standard. It is not difficult to see that the performance of the U.S. stock energy sector in the first half of 2022 is unique. This means that the proportion of stocks in the energy sector in the positions of institutional investors may have exceeded the predetermined upper limit of the position ratio. In this case, investors will have to reduce their holdings of shares in the energy sector. On the contrary,<b>Communication Services</b>、<b>Optional consumption</b>And<b>Information Technology</b>Sectors have experienced large year-to-date declines, so they are more likely to have broken through the lower limit of investors' positions in these sectors, in which case investors will have to increase their allocation to these sectors.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bc0e5300923df0191ae42145fa455991\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"515\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Risk: Be wary of high-frequency production/sales data</b></p><p>One point that needs to be emphasized is that we believe that the performance expectations of US stock companies are not without room for downward adjustment, but there is a short-term lack of catalysts. Therefore, when we use the information vacuum to trade, we must be alert to the emergence of high-frequency data, such as retail data-they cover food and beverage, automobiles, drugs, clothing, energy and other segments. Therefore, if we seize short-term opportunities in the US market with stagflation expectations, these areas need to be extra cautious. In terms of price data, we don't think there is need to worry too much, because as far as we have observed so far, the market is generally price-neutral in fundamental trading.</p><p><b>Hong Kong stocks: Maximize the use of valuation repair and upward risk appetite</b></p><p><b>Brief introduction of short-term market conditions of Hong Kong stocks</b></p><p>Since the high point in February 2021, the Hang Seng Index first experienced a plateau period from March to June, remaining volatile at 29,000 points. The decline began in July 2021 and bottomed out in March 2022. The Hang Seng Index is currently fluctuating at a low level of 20,000-23,000 points. From a macro perspective, China's economy bottomed out in the second quarter, and the macro aspect is expected to achieve a V-shaped reversal in the third quarter. From a micro perspective, the downward revision trend of company performance in the Hong Kong stock market has continued for a whole year from July 2021 to the present. With the advent of the performance period in the second quarter, we believe that the downward revision of performance is expected to be generally completed before the silent period, and the market's expectation of the company is expected to stabilize with the end of the performance period. For now, we believe that Hong Kong stocks have accumulated strong rebound potential. There are two possibilities in the second half of the year:</p><p>1. Hong Kong stocks rebounded in the third quarter. Then our suggestion is that investors can consider completing the layout and taking profits in the third quarter, and wait and see cautiously in the fourth quarter.</p><p>2. Hong Kong stocks maintained a low and volatile trend in the third quarter. Then we believe that Hong Kong stocks will achieve a U-shaped reversal in the fourth quarter of this year after macroeconomic risks are cleared.</p><p>No matter which situation happens, our advice to investors is to make a good layout in the third quarter.</p><p><b>Hong Kong stock market rebound logic in the third quarter and main industries</b></p><p>We believe that there are the following four logics for the rebound of Hong Kong stocks. The first two are the main logics and the latter two are the supplementary logics:</p><p>1.<b>Valuation repair logic</b>。 Like U.S. stocks, the previous decline was relatively large, but if the downward revision of performance expectations is not as good as the decline, there is room for valuation repair.</p><p>2.<b>Risk preference switching logic</b>。 We found that at the high level of the market, companies with high growth rates have greater valuation advantages; At the low level of the market, the valuation premium of high-growth companies decreases. Therefore, from an overall perspective, when the market rebounds from low to high, high-growth companies will benefit from the valuation increase brought about by the switch of market risk appetite. We call this a \"risk appetite pointer\".</p><p>3.<b>Share repurchase logic</b>。 As mentioned in the \"Special Research on Hong Kong Stock Share Repurchase-Repurchase Data Bottom-Hunting Strategy-Using Collective Wisdom\" (April 27, 2022) we released earlier, we believe that listed companies have sent signals at the macro level: They believe that their stock price is undervalued at 23,000 points on the Hang Seng Index. Despite the later military conflict between Russia and Ukraine and two black swan incidents in Shanghai and COVID-19 pandemic, we believe that the long-term value of most domestic companies will not change significantly. We can look for companies with large repurchase volume in this round of decline to invest in, because their prospects are more endorsed by the company's management. At the micro level, this is a secondary logic, and it is recommended to be used in conjunction with the above two main logics.</p><p>4.<b>AH share premium logic</b>。 At present, the Shanghai-Hong Kong AH premium index has been at the top position since the opening of Hong Kong Stock Connect, and has a certain correction potential. We believe that stocks with AH dual listings and historically high premiums are also worthy of investors' consideration. This is a secondary logic.</p><p>To sum up the above four rebound logics, our key recommendations are as follows:</p><p>1. Top recommendation<b>Healthcare</b>All sub-sections except chemicals are listed. Especially recommended<b>CXO and biopharmaceuticals segments</b>。 They have both valuation repair space and high growth expectations, while benefiting from the first two rebound logics.</p><p>2. Second recommendation<b>Information Technology</b>Lower<b>Semiconductor</b>Plate. This sector has both valuation repair space and risk appetite switching logic, but we must be alert to the risk of some individual stocks' performance in 2022-2023 being high before and then low.</p><p>3. Additionally recommended<b>New energy vehicles and advertising in the media</b>Plate. They have high growth expectations, belong to emerging industries, and may benefit from the switch of risk appetite.</p><p>4. Finally, we recommend<b>Internet companies</b>, they are the core stocks that have attracted much attention in Hong Kong stocks, and are likely to become the standard bearer of the rebound of Hong Kong stocks.</p><p>5. The stocks we recommend cover most of the constituent stocks of the Hang Seng Technology Index. Therefore, we recommend at the index level<b>Hang Seng Technology</b>。</p><p><b>Logic 1: Valuation repair logic</b></p><p>Similar to the valuation repair logic we use in U.S. stocks, if the reduction in performance expectations of a stock/industry is less than the decline in stock prices, then there is room for valuation repair in the rebound.</p><p>We uniformly adopted a +31% treatment for the rise and fall of stock prices (31% is the average decline of sample stocks in the second half of 2021 to date) to distinguish companies that have fallen larger than and smaller than the prevailing situation. When calculating the valuation repair space, for companies with stable profits, we take the change of profit expectations as the standard, and for companies that cannot make stable profits, we take the revenue expectations as the standard.</p><p>Based on the data, we make recommendations for the following industries in terms of valuation repair logic:</p><p>1.<b>Healthcare</b>Multiple sub-sections under. We highly recommend<b>CXO and biopharmaceuticals segments</b>, these companies generally experienced a sharp pullback/retracement in stock prices in the early stage, but their performance expectations have been raised. Furthermore,<b>Medical and Health Equipment and Services</b>The sector also has ample room for valuation repair.</p><p>2.<b>Information Technology</b>Two sub-plates under.<b>Semiconductor</b>There is great differentiation within the industry, and there is plenty of room for valuation repair of SMIC (981 HK) and Hua Hong Semiconductor (1347 HK).<b>Technology hardware</b>Mainly Xiaomi and Lenovo, the sample size is small, so it is not recommended for the sector.</p><p>3. The sample size of dealers under optional consumption and building products under industry is too small to be repeated; The median early decline of shipping under industry is low, and there is no room for operation under the rebound logic, so it is not recommended.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6da8772831406f08d537f0be3654a440\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"736\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f41003be5c098c8c43962a38b9021624\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"661\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9ae84e4ee3eb70a4f151573ae0496af7\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"863\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/56bc30ba442fac3d8b344365b7ad722c\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"394\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Logic 2: Risk preference switching logic</b></p><p>We compared the expected 2-year CAGR of revenue and the PS at that time at two time points (revenue and PS are mainly used to cover unprofitable companies). These two time points are the end of February 2021-the high level of the Hang Seng Index, and current.</p><p>We find that when the market is at a high point, the valuation advantage of high-growth stocks is amplified; When the market goes down, the valuation advantage of high-growth stocks will be reduced. We believe this is mainly due to the switch of market risk appetite. From the perspective of graphics, the stock expectation-valuation regression line at different points in time seems to have been rotated, so we call it the \"risk appetite pointer\".</p><p>Since February 2021, the \"risk appetite pointer\" has rotated clockwise with the downward trend of the market, and the valuation advantage of high-growth stocks has been weakened; On the contrary, when there is a rebound opportunity in the market, we believe that these high-growth stocks will also benefit from the counterclockwise rotation of the \"risk appetite pointer\" and the rise of risk appetite at the valuation level. Combined with the expectation of improving fundamentals in the third quarter, high-growth stocks are expected to usher in Davis' double-click.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/60b8beaee31c9d313677b2799c73ee5e\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"519\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>From an industry perspective, the following industries currently have high growth expectations:</p><p>1.<b>Cars under optional consumption</b>。<b>Automotive segment</b>Mainly benefiting from some companies participating in the new energy vehicle market, the growth rate of traditional automobile manufacturing companies is relatively low. So we advise investors to lock in<b>New energy vehicle</b>, not all car companies.</p><p>2.<b>Semiconductor sector under information technology</b>。 Except for individual stocks, they generally have relatively optimistic revenue CAGR expectations. However, we recommend that investors pay attention to the risk of high and low performance when selecting semiconductor companies.</p><p>3.<b>Healthcare</b>Multiple sub-sectors under, especially<b>Biological drugs</b>。 Except for the pharmaceutical sector, the healthcare sector showed a gratifying growth trend. The growth rate of the pharmaceutical sub-sector is low, mainly due to the drag down of traditional chemical pharmaceutical companies.</p><p>4.<b>Media segment under Communication Services</b>, especially the performance growth rate of advertising companies is expected to be relatively high.</p><p>5. Hotel catering under optional consumption and airline sub-sectors under industry both have high growth expectations, but they are both traditional industries that benefit from the logic of epidemic recovery. Although the growth rate is expected to be high, it may not benefit from the rise in risk appetite.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/196f861399211f74f7dadbd6d51b238c\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"710\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>Logic 3: Share repurchase logic</b></p><p>In our earlier special report \"Special Research on Hong Kong Stock Share Repurchase-Bottom-hunting Strategy for Repurchase Data-Using Collective Wisdom\" (April 27, 2022), we conducted a study on the relationship between the company's repurchase behavior and the broader market and individual stocks research. We believe that the company's early repurchase behavior is also a bonus, which can be understood as the company's \"bottom-hunting\" of its own stocks.</p><p>When the first two more important rebound logics are in place, the company's repurchase behavior provides us with further protection. But this is a secondary logic, and we recommend that investors only use it as a useful addition.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c367411a0e2146523849f12059ec165b\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"609\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Logic 4: AH share premium logic</b></p><p>Hong Kong Stock Connect was opened in November 2014. We observed the premium of AH shares since 2015 and found that the premium of AH shares has reached a high level at present, breaking through the +1 standard deviation level for a considerable distance. For companies listed in AH and AH, we believe that the high premium of AH shares will also help the H shares of related companies to achieve a stock price rebound.</p><p>However, we generally believe that this logic is not enough to support the companies listed in AH and AH alone to create excess returns. We suggest that investors choose the best among the companies listed in AH and AH on the basis of combining the first two main rebound logics. Relevant overlapping targets include biopharmaceuticals, CXO companies, some new energy vehicle industry chain companies, and a small number of semiconductor companies</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd85f18d2127e76f6975518f8fcc0ccc\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"515\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Risk warning</b></p><p>The uncertainty of the development of the epidemic; The risk that the company's performance will fall short of expectations; International political and economic emergencies; The Fed's unexpected monetary policy style.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/otESAs4BWujFnEZ2Xpx2AA\">学恒的海外观察</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fd680cd945fd32917c8ece66ec685e5f","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯","HSCEI":"国企指数",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","HSTECH":"恒生科技指数","HSCCI":"红筹指数","HSI":"恒生指数"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/otESAs4BWujFnEZ2Xpx2AA","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1182404599","content_text":"第三季度或是美股和港股2022年重要的投资时间窗口美股方面，联储尚处于加息通道，且宏观层面有滞胀预期，但我们认为美股在第三季度会有一轮反弹。这主要得益于三季度的信息真空期：1）宏观层面，CPI同比难创新高，7-8月只是下降多少的问题，GDP是大盘滞后指标，对未来股价走势影响有限；2）微观层面，中报季没有企业业绩下修的催化剂；3）货币层面，9月FOMC会议尚有时日，且联储态度边际转鸽。盘面上，利空因素快速出清后，美股仍能逐日上行，反映出美股投资者多头力量充裕。港股方面，恒指去年7月下跌至今年3月，低位震荡格局已维持一个季度，反弹势能充足。基本面上，我们认为中国宏观经济已在二季度见底，个股业绩下修趋势有望在中报季结束。今年下半年或出现两种情况：1）三季度反弹，则我们建议投资者四季度谨慎；2）三季度低位震荡，四季度反弹。无论是哪种情况，我们都建议投资者在三季度布局，准备迎接反弹。美股：在估值修复空间与商业模式中择优我们为投资者提供4条反弹逻辑：1）盈利预测未下调，但股价超跌带来的估值修复逻辑；2）寻找抗滞胀的商业模式；3）利用高增长动能突破经济衰退；4）前期超跌带来的机构投资者强制补仓需求。我们推荐的行业有：1.首推软件业SaaS公司：估值修复空间充裕；商业模式在经济衰退初期刚性较强；属于增速较高的新兴行业；前期跌幅较大，投资者有补仓需求。符合4/4条反弹逻辑，首推。2.次推新能源车制造商：估值修复空间充裕；位于渗透率曲线甜点上，增速预期高；所属的可选消费板块前期跌幅较大，投资者有补仓需求。符合3/4条反弹逻辑，次推。3.半导体行业：有估值修复空间；成本传导能力好，抗通胀；增速高；前期超跌。符合4/4条反弹逻辑，但有业绩前高后低的风险，推荐。港股：最大化利用估值修复与风险偏好上行我们为投资者提供2条主要反弹逻辑：1）盈利预测下调幅度小/未下调，但跌幅较大带来的估值修复逻辑；2）风险偏好上升，成长股受益逻辑。以及2条次要逻辑：1）将公司前期回购行为视为管理层对基本面的背书；2）在AH股高溢价的公司中寻找套利空间。我们推荐的行业有：1.医疗保健下多个子板块，尤其是CXO和生物药。它们有充足的估值修复空间且预期增速较高，有望受益于风险偏好抬升。符合2/2条主要逻辑，首推。2.信息技术下的半导体板块。它们也有较优的估值修复空间和较高的业绩增速预期，但须警惕业绩前高后低的风险。符合2/2条主要逻辑，但有1项风险，次推。3.另推荐互联网公司以及恒生科技指数。风险提示：疫情发展的不确定性；企业业绩不及预期的风险；国际政治经济突发事件；美联储预期外的货币政策风格。美股：在估值修复空间与商业模式中择优美股第三季度交易逻辑整体展望我们认为三季度将会是今年投资美股的重要时间窗口。在第三季度，我们看到了三个信息真空期：1.宏观数据的真空期。从大宗商品等高频数据来判断，7-8月CPI难以超越6月份同比增9.1%的水平，无非是降幅大小的区别。GDP方面，二季度美国GDP环比折年-0.9%，但GDP总体是个滞后于大盘的指标，且宏观面衰退预期格局已定型（10年-2年美债利率倒挂已经稳定）总体不构成大盘走势影响。2.企业盈利表现的真空期。中报季来临至今，美股企业的半年度业绩总体符合预期。尽管经济衰退预期逐渐在宏观层面形成，微观层面上企业业绩下修尚缺乏催化剂，需进一步等待企业第三季度的表现。3.货币政策的真空期。7月加息75bp靴子落地，市场期望9月加息节奏放缓。与市场期望一致，美联储官员讲话和FOMC声明显著边际转鸽。这个倾向短期内看反转概率较小。同时距离下次靴子落地还有2个月的时间。从盘面来看，我们认识到美国市场多头力量仍然很足——利空因素在市场上快速出清，然后股市便可以回到逐日上行的状态。所以，我们认为今年第三季度是美股投资重要的时间窗口，投资者有望从反弹中获取收益。美股反弹的投资逻辑和首推行业在这个反弹策略中，我们运用到四套逻辑：1.估值修复逻辑：如果公司的盈利预测上调了（或者没下调），但是股价却下跌了，便在反弹行情中享受优先估值修复的机会；2.抗滞胀商业模式：在宏观层面有滞胀预期的情况下，商业模式能够天然抵御经济衰退或高通胀的公司将在反弹行情中受到投资者的青睐；3.成长股逻辑：以攻为守，以较高的增长动能突破经济衰退大环境的限制；4.超跌逻辑：前期跌得多，后期或将涨得多。对机构投资者来说，跌幅较大的板块可能已经突破预先设置的配置比例下限，他们将不得不对这些超跌板块补仓。我们对推荐的行业做一个汇总：1.首推软件业SaaS公司。符合逻辑一，有较大估值修复空间；符合逻辑二，预付费按时间计提收入，商业模式短期抗衰退能力强；符合逻辑三，成长潜力较高的新兴行业；符合逻辑四，前期跌幅大，投资者有补仓需求。软件业SaaS公司是四条反弹逻辑的交汇点，首推。2.其次推汽车中的新能源车。符合逻辑一，有较大估值修复空间；符合逻辑三，位于渗透率曲线甜点，增速预期高，有望穿越周期；符合逻辑四，前期跌幅较大，有补仓需求。四条逻辑占三条，推荐。3.半导体行业也是我们的重点推荐之一。主要的机会在于新能源领域和云计算领域，对公产品优先。符合逻辑一，有较大估值修复空间；符合逻辑二，竞争格局稳定，有较强的议价能力和成本传导能力；符合逻辑三，增速预期高；符合逻辑四，有补仓需求。风险在于前期服务器和电脑销售量大，有需求透支的风险，须警惕业绩前高后低。半导体占全部四条反弹逻辑，但有一项风险，推荐。4.此外，我们建议投资者考虑疫情恢复带动的酒店、娱乐板块，和估值修复空间大的医药CXO板块。逻辑一：估值修复逻辑寻找反弹的第一个逻辑是估值修复。具体到执行层面，我们认为，业绩预期没有下修，但是股价下跌的股票，在反弹中会有估值修复空间，表现出更强的弹性。业绩预期，我们采用上市企业2023年彭博一致预期利润的调整幅度（如果企业不盈利，我们改用营收调整幅度）；股价表现，我们使用年初至今的公司的股价变动。我们对股价跌幅做了简单的+13%的处理（13%是我们样本股票的平均跌幅），以冲抵流动性收紧带来的对所有股票公平的股价压力。对处理后的涨跌幅，我们称之为“相对涨跌幅”。如果一家公司的业绩调整幅度减去股价相对涨跌幅大于0%，说明这支股票有估值修复空间。即以下公式：估值修复空间 = 业绩调整幅度 - 相对涨跌幅要补充的一点是，除了估值修复空间这个量化限制外，估值修复还有一个定性要求——前期必须要下跌，而非上涨。典型不适合估值修复逻辑的案例是能源板块。年初至今，能源板块的业绩上调幅度大于股价涨幅。但是股价总体呈上涨，而非下跌，所以“反弹”无从谈起。从数据来看，估值修复空间较大的板块有：1.非日常生活消费品（可选消费）-汽车板块有较大的估值修复空间。但展开看，该板块的估值修复空间基本上都集中在以特斯拉（TSLA US）为代表的新能源车厂商身上。2.信息技术-半导体板块，今年上半年业绩总体上调，但股价下跌。估值修复空间较大的细分公司有汽车半导体厂商（如安森美ON US）和带有云端概念的GPU制造商（如英伟达NVDA US和超微半导体AMD US）。3.信息技术-软件业估值修复空间分化比较严重，但有一些估值修复空间较领先的个股，普遍是SaaS公司。4.医疗保健-生命科学工具与服务（CXO）普遍具有一定的估值修复空间。包含了一些业绩上修，但股价大幅下跌的公司。5.信息技术-通信设备的业绩预期变化比较平稳，但跌幅较大。有望在接下来的反弹引起防御风格投资者的注意。那些估值修复空间大，但我们不重点推荐的行业：1.金融-商业银行的估值修复空间也比较大，主要是由于前期银行业绩上调幅度比较大，有一定配置价值。但银行市值较大，追求反弹时，不是我们的首选。2.能源的估值修复空间读数较高。但上半年能源处于上涨态势，“反弹”无从谈起，我们不作推荐。3.工业-建筑产品的估值修复空间比较大，但它们的业绩预期普遍呈现小幅下行状态，可能会缺乏反弹的催化剂。4.原材料行业面临高频商品价格数据见顶回落压力。同时，由于经营杠杆较高，营收的细微变化可能引起利润的剧烈波动。我们建议谨慎考虑。5.样本量过小的行业我们不作赘述。逻辑二：抗滞胀的商业模式滞胀的两个关键词，一个是“滞”——代表经济衰退；一个是“胀”——代表成本上升。所以，我们需要找到能够对抗衰退，或能够传导成本的商业模式。我们将对几个行业做举例说明。软件业SaaS公司软件业中的SaaS公司是我们最为看好的细分板块之一。它们收入端采用客户预付费的订阅模式，预先向客户收取一笔费用，确定服务时间长度，然后逐月/逐季将这笔费用确认为收入。成本端，SaaS公司的主要成本是营销支出，而营销支出也是先支付给销售人员，然后随营收逐步确认的。所以，SaaS公司将在经济衰退初期展现出强大的业绩刚性，体现优势。这类SaaS公司的案例包括，云平台安全系统提供商Datadog（DDOG US），云数据平台公司Zscaler（ZS US），身份识别系统公司OKTA（OKTA US）。同时，我们要谨慎对待其他模式的软件公司。它们的收入来自企业资本开支中的IT支出——这是对经济周期高度敏感的一项开支。互联网中介平台在对抗通胀方面，我们认为一些互联网中介平台将会表现地十分出众。他们的收入通常是基于GMV——平台上的交易量，乘以一个固定的费率（take rate）。在通胀高企的情况下，他们的GMV会随着快速增加的物价上升。其中的一个例子是爱彼迎（ABNB US），它为旅行者提供住宿中介服务，基于GBV（GMV的一个变形）收费。由于CPI中的旅馆项目同比增速近期一直处于20%左右的高位，爱彼迎的GBV，继而营收也会被较高的酒旅价格增速驱动上行。网络营销与直销零售板块下的一些公司也属于这个范畴，如亚马逊（AMZN US）和eBay公司（EBAY US）。半导体制造业另外，我们看好一些议价能力强的制造业公司，如半导体制造业——它们的技术壁垒高，市场格局比较稳定，对于龙头来说，有一定根据需求加价的空间。这有助于它们把成本端的压力传导至下游。在这些公司中，消费级产品，如PC电脑使用的CPU的价格将比较缺乏弹性。对公业务占比较高的公司优势将会更大，因为对公产品比消费级产品的价格弹性更足，比较典型的便是汽车半导体制造商，如安森美（ON US）。逻辑三：成长股逻辑正如我们在中期策略报告中提到，经济不景气时，成长弥足珍贵。我们相信增长是最好的防御。所以，我们也建议投资者优先考虑预期增速较高的行业和标的。如果这些标的也带有前面的两条逻辑，那便是上上之选。目前来看，预期增速比较高的几个行业如下：1.可选消费，主要的增长点是汽车和酒店餐饮行业。其中，汽车板块内部有较大分化，新能源车企特斯拉（TSLA US）和Lucid（LCID US）有较高的增速预期，传统车企的增速预期比较平庸。酒店餐饮则主要受益于酒店行业正在从疫情中恢复，具有低基数和需求集中爆发两个驱动因素，餐饮（尤其快餐）的增速则比较平庸。2.通信服务板块中，娱乐行业增速比较强劲。主要高增速的公司是涉及旅游概念的华特迪士尼（DIS US）、音乐会承办公司Live Nation（LYV US）和游戏公司电子艺界（EA US）。前两者主要受益于社会活动的恢复，后者有较为稳定且快速的游戏内增值服务收入增长。3.信息技术板块下的半导体和软件业。其中，半导体行业下有许多高增速公司。但是我们要警惕那些2022年增速预期高，2023年预期低的公司。因为电脑和服务器在近期的销量较高，我们应警惕前期需求透支，相关公司2022年业绩前高后低的风险。我们重点选择分析师认为2023年业绩仍能高增的公司，如美满电子（MRVL US）、Enphase能源（ENPH US）、SolarEdge科技（SEDG US）、英伟达（NVDA US）。软件业，我们认为应进一步区分为传统软件公司和SaaS公司。SaaS公司预期增速仅次于新能源车板块，如Datadog（DDOG US）和Zscaler（ZS US），是我们重点推荐的行业。4.CAGR高但是2022和2023年增速过于不均衡或样本量太小的行业，我们不作板块推荐。逻辑四：超跌逻辑由于机构投资者通常都有事先确定好的持仓结构要求（如某一板块的持股占投资组合的比例必须处于某个区间内），在市场各板块涨跌幅不均的情况下，前期涨幅较大的板块将面临更大的抛压，跌幅较大的板块将受益于投资者的补仓需求。我们以GICS板块作为参考标准。不难看出，美股能源板块在2022年上半年的表现一枝独秀。这意味着，能源板块的股票在机构投资者持仓中的占比可能已经超过了事先给定的持仓比例上限。在这种情况下，投资者将不得不减持能源板块的股票。相反，通信服务、可选消费和信息技术板块年初至今的跌幅较大，所以它们更有可能已经向下突破了投资者在这些板块的持仓比例下限，在这种情况下，投资者将不得不增配这些板块。风险：警惕高频产量/销量数据需要强调的一点是，我们认为美股公司的业绩预期并非没有下调空间，只是短期缺乏催化剂。所以，当我们利用信息真空交易时，一定要警惕高频数据的出现，如零售数据——它们涵盖了食饮、汽车、药物、服饰、能源等细分。所以，如果我们怀着滞胀预期在美国市场抓短期机会，这些领域需要格外慎重。价格数据方面，我们认为无需过于担忧，因为就我们目前为止的观察，市场在基本面交易上总体呈价格中性。港股：最大化利用估值修复与风险偏好上行港股短期市场状态简述自2021年2月的高点以来，恒生指数首先经历了3-6月份的平台期，在29000点的位置维持震荡。2021年7月开始下跌，到2022年3月触底。恒生指数目前在20000-23000点低位震荡。从宏观角度看，中国经济在第二季度触底，第三季度宏观面将有望实现V型反转。从微观的角度看，港股市场公司业绩的下修趋势已经从2021年7月持续一整年至今。随着二季度业绩期的来临，我们认为业绩下修有望在静默期前大体完成，市场对公司的预期有望随着业绩期的结束企稳。就目前来看，我们认为港股已经积累了较强的反弹势能。下半年将面临两种可能性：1.港股在三季度有所反弹。那么我们的建议则是投资者可以考虑在三季度完成布局和止盈的动作，在第四季度谨慎观望。2.港股在三季度维持低位震荡走势。那么我们认为港股将在宏观经济风险出清后，在今年四季度实现U型反转。无论哪一种情况发生，我们对投资者的建议均是在三季度做好布局。港股三季度反弹逻辑与主推行业我们认为港股的反弹逻辑有以下四个，前两个是主要逻辑，后两个是补充逻辑：1.估值修复逻辑。与美股相同，前期跌幅比较大，但是业绩预期下修幅度不及跌幅的，便存在估值修复的空间。2.风险偏好切换逻辑。我们发现，在大盘的高位，高增速的公司具有更大的估值优势；在大盘低位，高增速公司的估值溢价则减少。因此，从全局的角度看，在市场从低位向高位反弹时，高增速公司将会受益于市场风险偏好切换带来的估值提升。我们将此称为“风险偏好指针”。3.股份回购逻辑。正如我们早前发布的《港股股份回购专题研究-回购数据抄底策略——利用集体的智慧》（2022年4月27日）提到，我们认为上市企业在宏观层面已经发出了信号：它们认为自身股价在恒生指数23000点的位置已经被低估。尽管后期又发生了俄乌军事冲突和上海新冠疫情两起黑天鹅事件，但我们相信大多数国内企业的长期价值不会有较大幅度的改变。我们可以去寻找在本轮下跌中回购量较大的公司进行投资，因为它们的前景更多地受到了公司管理层的背书。在微观层面，这是一条次要逻辑，建议与上面两条主要逻辑结合使用。4.AH股溢价逻辑。目前，沪港AH溢价指数已经处于港股通开通以来的顶部位置，有一定的回调势能。我们认为AH两地上市，同时溢价处于历史高位的股票也值得投资者考虑。这是一条次要逻辑。综上四条反弹逻辑，我们的重点推荐如下：1.首要推荐医疗保健下除化学药以外的各个子板块。尤其重点推荐CXO和生物药板块。它们兼具估值修复空间和高增长预期，同时受益于前两条反弹逻辑。2.其次推荐信息技术下的半导体板块。这个板块兼具估值修复空间与风险偏好切换逻辑，唯独要警惕部分个股在2022-2023年业绩前高后低的风险。3.此外推荐新能源车和媒体中的广告板块。它们具备较高的增速预期，属于新兴行业，或将受益于风险偏好切换。4.最后，我们推荐互联网公司，它们是港股中备受关注的核心个股，很可能成为港股反弹的旗手。5.我们推荐的个股涵盖了恒生科技指数的大部分成分股。因此，我们在指数层面推荐恒生科技。逻辑一：估值修复逻辑与我们在美股使用的估值修复逻辑相似，如果一支股票/一个行业的业绩预期下调幅度小于股价下跌幅度，那么在反弹中便存在估值修复的空间。我们对股价的涨跌幅统一采用了+31%（31%是2021年下半年至今样本股票的平均跌幅）的处理，以区分跌幅大于和小于普遍情况的公司。计算估值修复空间时，对于有稳定盈利的公司，我们以利润预期变动为准，对于不能稳定盈利的公司，我们以营收预期为准。根据数据，我们就估值修复逻辑对以下行业做出推荐：1.医疗保健下的多个子板块。我们重点推荐CXO和生物药板块，这些公司在前期普遍经历了股价的大幅回撤，但是业绩预期方面却有所上调。此外，医药保健设备与服务板块也有充裕的估值修复空间。2.信息技术下的两个子板块。半导体行业内分化较大，中芯国际（981 HK）与华虹半导体（1347 HK）的估值修复空间比较充裕。科技硬件主要是小米和联想，样本量小，不作板块推荐。3.可选消费下的经销商、工业下的建筑产品样本量太小，不作赘述；工业下的海运前期跌幅中位数偏低，反弹逻辑下没有操作空间，不作推荐。逻辑二：风险偏好切换逻辑我们对比了两个时间点的预期营收2年CAGR和当时的PS（使用营收和PS主要是为了涵盖未盈利的公司），这两个时间点分别为2021年2月末——恒生指数的高位，和当前。我们发现，当市场位于高点时，高增长股票的估值优势会被放大；而当市场下行时，高增长股票的估值优势会被缩小。我们认为这主要是市场风险偏好切换所致。从图像的角度来看，不同时间点的股票预期-估值回归线看起来经过了旋转，故我们称之为“风险偏好指针”。2021年2月至今，“风险偏好指针”随着大盘的下行顺时针旋转，高增长个股的估值优势被削弱；反之，当大盘出现反弹机会时，我们认为这些高增长个股也将受益于“风险偏好指针”的逆时针旋转，在估值层面受益于风险偏好的上升。结合三季度基本面改善的预期，高增长个股则有望迎来戴维斯双击。从行业的角度来看，以下行业目前具有较高的增速预期：1.可选消费下的汽车。汽车板块主要受益于部分参与了新能源车市场的企业，传统汽车制造企业的增速则比较低。所以我们建议投资者锁定新能源车，而非所有车企。2.信息技术下的半导体板块。除个别个股外，普遍具有较为乐观的营收CAGR预期。但是，我们建议投资者挑选半导体公司时要注意业绩前高后低的风险。3.医疗保健下的多个子板块，尤其是生物药。除了制药板块外，医疗保健板块均呈现出喜人的增势。制药子板块增速较低，主要是受到了传统化学药企业的拖累。4.通信服务下的媒体板块，尤其是广告公司的业绩增速预期较高。5.可选消费下的酒店餐饮和工业下的航空公司子板块均有较高的增速预期，但它们都是受益于疫情修复逻辑的传统行业。虽然增速预期较高，但未必会受益于风险偏好的上升。逻辑三：股份回购逻辑我们在早先发布的专题报告《港股股份回购专题研究-回购数据抄底策略——利用集体的智慧》（2022年4月27日）中对公司的回购行为与大盘和个股的关系进行了研究。我们认为，公司前期的回购行为也是一个加分项，可以理解为公司对自身股票进行的“抄底”。在前两项更加重要的反弹逻辑具备的情况下，公司的回购行为为我们提供了进一步保障。但这是一条次要逻辑，我们建议投资者仅将其作为一个有益补充。逻辑四：AH股溢价逻辑港股通于2014年11月开通，我们观察2015年以来的AH股溢价情况，发现AH股溢价目前已经触及高位，向上突破了+1标准差水平相当一段距离。对于AH两地上市的公司来说，我们认为AH股溢价处于高位也有助于相关公司的H股实现股价反弹。但是，我们总体上认为这个逻辑不足以单独支撑AH两地上市公司创造超额收益，我们建议投资者在结合前两条主要反弹逻辑的基础上在AH两地上市的公司中优中择优。有相关重叠的标的包括生物药、CXO公司，部分新能源汽车产业链公司，以及少量半导体公司风险提示疫情发展的不确定性；企业业绩不及预期的风险；国际政治经济突发事件；美联储预期外的货币政策风格。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"HSI":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"HSCEI":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"HSTECH":0.9,"HSCCI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":941,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9078610957,"gmtCreate":1657676439379,"gmtModify":1676536044469,"author":{"id":"3572683426659077","authorId":"3572683426659077","name":"haiwei183","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1cae291bddff5a30eeb96060074d8531","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3572683426659077","idStr":"3572683426659077"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"look","listText":"look","text":"look","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9078610957","repostId":"1110905137","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":534,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9028350063,"gmtCreate":1653178870452,"gmtModify":1676535233859,"author":{"id":"3572683426659077","authorId":"3572683426659077","name":"haiwei183","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1cae291bddff5a30eeb96060074d8531","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3572683426659077","idStr":"3572683426659077"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"look","listText":"look","text":"look","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9028350063","repostId":"1189815736","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1189815736","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1653088423,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1189815736?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-05-21 07:13","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Last night and this morning | S&P bear mouth escaped! Dow Jones Industrial Average hits longest losing streak in nearly a century","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1189815736","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"道指创1923年来最长连跌纪录，标普V型反转脱离熊市边缘；美联储Bullard称提前加息可给2023年带来降息空间；特斯拉“失宠”？不再是“木头姐”旗舰基金最大持仓；美国又一零售商暴雷>>>海外市场","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>The Dow recorded its longest losing streak since 1923, and the S&P V-shaped reversal left the edge of a bear market; Federal Reserve Bullard says early rate hike can bring room for interest rate cuts in 2023; Tesla \"out of favor\"? It is no longer the largest position of the flagship fund of \"Sister Wood\"; Another U.S. retailer hits thunderstorm > > ><b>Overseas Market</b></p><p><b>Closing: Dow falls for eighth week in a row, records longest losing streak since 1923</b></p><p>The Nasdaq closed down 0.3% on Friday, and fell 3.82% this week, setting a seventh consecutive weekly loss; The S&P 500 index rose slightly by 0.01% and fell 3.05% this week, setting a 7-year weekly losing streak, the longest losing streak since 2001; The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.03% and fell 2.9% this week, setting an eighth weekly losing streak, the longest losing streak since 1923.</p><p><b>Popular Chinese concept stocks were mixed, the Nasdaq Golden Dragon Index fell 0.86%</b></p><p>Chinese concept stocks were mixed, with the Nasdaq Golden Dragon Index falling 0.86% to close at 6387 points.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">Baidu</a>Down 0.69%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba</a>Down 0.89%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">JD.com</a>Fell 1.16%, Meituan fell 2.45%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NTES\">NetEase</a>Youdao fell 6.35%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DIDI\">Didi</a>Down 6.83%; NetEase rose 1.59%, Weibo rose 1.03%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IQ\">IQiyi</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HUYA\">Tiger Tooth</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">Bilibili</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VIPS\">Vipshop</a>Rose more than 0.8%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DDL\">Dingdong Maicai</a>Down 13.12%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BEKE\">Shells</a>Down 2.19%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">Pinduoduo</a>Down 2.73%; Among the new car-making forces,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">Nio</a>Down 1.26%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">XPeng vehicles</a>Down 1.19%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">Li Auto</a>Closed flat.</p><p><b>U.S. oil closed up 2.5% this week, while Brent oil rose 0.9%</b></p><p>June WTI futures rose $1.02, or 0.9%, to settle at $113.23 a barrel. Brent crude oil futures for July delivery rose 51 cents, or 0.4%, to settle at $112.55 a barrel on ICE Futures Europe. Based on the front-month contract, U.S. WTI rose 2.5% and ICE Brent crude oil rose 0.9% this week.</p><p><b>Gold futures rose 1.7% this week, breaking a four-week losing streak</b></p><p>New York gold futures closed steady on Friday, but posted their first weekly gain in a month. Against a backdrop of market turmoil, investors turned to safe-haven assets such as U.S. Treasury Bond and the U.S. dollar. Gold futures for June delivery rose slightly by $0.90, or less than 0.1%, to settle at $1,842.10 an ounce on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Gold futures rose 1.7% this week, breaking a four-week losing streak.</p><p><b>Major European stock indexes collectively closed higher, with Germany's DAX30 index rising 0.7%</b></p><p>Major European stock indexes collectively closed higher, with Germany's DAX30 index rising 0.7%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VUKE.UK\">UK FTSE 100</a>The index rose 1.19%, France's CAC40 index rose 0.2%, and Europe's Stoxx 50 index rose 0.44%.</p><p><b>International macro</b></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2237042987\" target=\"_blank\"><b>G7 finance ministers focus on global market volatility, throwing all blame for inflation on Russia</b></a></p><p>After the recent decline in global markets, finance ministers from major economies pledged to keep a close eye on financial markets and pledged to further tighten monetary policy, blaming Russia entirely for the current inflationary shock.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2237028422\" target=\"_blank\"><b>Fed Bullard says early rate hike could give room to cut interest rates in 2023</b></a></p><p>St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said the Fed should implement a series of aggressive rate hike ahead of schedule and raise interest rates to 3.5% by the end of the year. If successful, it will push down inflation and bring the possibility of policy easing in 2023 or 2024.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2237047811\" target=\"_blank\"><b>Polls show Biden's approval rate falls to lowest in office</b></a></p><p>According to an opinion poll released by the Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Research, U.S. President Joe Biden's approval rating fell to the lowest level in his term in May, with only 39% of Americans approving his administration. In addition, only one-fifth of respondents in the United States think that the United States is developing in the right direction or its economy is good. There is a growing pessimism in Biden's Democratic Party. In the Democratic Party, about 33% of people think that the country is developing in the right direction, which is much lower than 49% in April. According to the Associated Press, these survey results reflect the general angry public sentiment of the American people after experiencing inflation, gun violence, sudden shortage of baby formula, and persistent COVID-19 pandemic.</p><p><b>Company News</b></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2237393049\" target=\"_blank\"><b>Musk meets with Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro to discuss cooperation matters such as rural networking and monitoring rainforests</b></a></p><p>Brazilian Communications Minister Fabio Faria announced on social media platforms that Elon Musk will arrive in Brazil on Friday at his invitation to discuss networking in rural areas and cooperation in monitoring deforestation with government officials. possibility.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2237042458\" target=\"_blank\"><b>Another thunderstorm for American retailers! Ross Department Store plunges more than 20%, biggest drop since 1986</b></a></p><p>The American discount department store chain giant Rose Department Store gapped open low by more than 24%. At the beginning of the session, its stock price fell to $69.76, a new low since March 2020, and fell by more than 22% during the day, the largest intraday decline since 1986. Before the stock price plummeted, Ross Department Store announced after the U.S. stock market closed on Thursday that its revenue, profit and same-store sales growth in the first fiscal quarter ended April 30 were all worse than expected.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/1140934699\" target=\"_blank\"><b>Tesla \"out of favor\"? No longer the largest holding of \"Sister Wood\" flagship fund</b></a></p><p>Tesla is losing the \"star\" status of Sister Wood's flagship fund. Since 2017, Tesla has been the number one holding of wood sister Kathy Wood's ARKK fund for most days, but it was recently defeated by Roku for the first time in about four and a half years.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2236043290\" target=\"_blank\"><b>EU plans to force Apple to allow developers access to all hardware and software features</b></a></p><p>The bloc is pushing ahead with legislation to tightly regulate companies such as Apple, developing plans to force \"gatekeepers\" to open access to hardware and software, and even setting up internal departments to meet the new rules, under an agreement approved by the bloc.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2236017202\" target=\"_blank\"><b>Netflix agrees to pay $59 million fine to resolve Italian tax dispute</b></a></p><p>Netflix agreed to pay a $59 million fine on Friday to resolve a tax dispute with the Italian government. Italian prosecutors have previously said that although Netflix has no physical presence in the country, its use of servers and other technologies in Italy is equivalent to having an entity in the country and is responsible for paying taxes in Italy.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2236019109\" target=\"_blank\"><b>Dutch company ASML manufactures new generation lithography</b></a></p><p>Netherlands<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ASML\">ASML</a>The company is making new extreme ultraviolet lithography, which will sell for about $400 million each. Reuters quoted senior executives of ASML as saying that the prototype of the new generation of high numerical aperture EUV lithography will be manufactured in the first half of 2023.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Last night and this morning | S&P bear mouth escaped! Dow Jones Industrial Average hits longest losing streak in nearly a century</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nLast night and this morning | S&P bear mouth escaped! Dow Jones Industrial Average hits longest losing streak in nearly a century\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-05-21 07:13</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>The Dow recorded its longest losing streak since 1923, and the S&P V-shaped reversal left the edge of a bear market; Federal Reserve Bullard says early rate hike can bring room for interest rate cuts in 2023; Tesla \"out of favor\"? It is no longer the largest position of the flagship fund of \"Sister Wood\"; Another U.S. retailer hits thunderstorm > > ><b>Overseas Market</b></p><p><b>Closing: Dow falls for eighth week in a row, records longest losing streak since 1923</b></p><p>The Nasdaq closed down 0.3% on Friday, and fell 3.82% this week, setting a seventh consecutive weekly loss; The S&P 500 index rose slightly by 0.01% and fell 3.05% this week, setting a 7-year weekly losing streak, the longest losing streak since 2001; The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.03% and fell 2.9% this week, setting an eighth weekly losing streak, the longest losing streak since 1923.</p><p><b>Popular Chinese concept stocks were mixed, the Nasdaq Golden Dragon Index fell 0.86%</b></p><p>Chinese concept stocks were mixed, with the Nasdaq Golden Dragon Index falling 0.86% to close at 6387 points.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">Baidu</a>Down 0.69%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba</a>Down 0.89%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">JD.com</a>Fell 1.16%, Meituan fell 2.45%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NTES\">NetEase</a>Youdao fell 6.35%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DIDI\">Didi</a>Down 6.83%; NetEase rose 1.59%, Weibo rose 1.03%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IQ\">IQiyi</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HUYA\">Tiger Tooth</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">Bilibili</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VIPS\">Vipshop</a>Rose more than 0.8%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DDL\">Dingdong Maicai</a>Down 13.12%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BEKE\">Shells</a>Down 2.19%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">Pinduoduo</a>Down 2.73%; Among the new car-making forces,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">Nio</a>Down 1.26%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">XPeng vehicles</a>Down 1.19%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">Li Auto</a>Closed flat.</p><p><b>U.S. oil closed up 2.5% this week, while Brent oil rose 0.9%</b></p><p>June WTI futures rose $1.02, or 0.9%, to settle at $113.23 a barrel. Brent crude oil futures for July delivery rose 51 cents, or 0.4%, to settle at $112.55 a barrel on ICE Futures Europe. Based on the front-month contract, U.S. WTI rose 2.5% and ICE Brent crude oil rose 0.9% this week.</p><p><b>Gold futures rose 1.7% this week, breaking a four-week losing streak</b></p><p>New York gold futures closed steady on Friday, but posted their first weekly gain in a month. Against a backdrop of market turmoil, investors turned to safe-haven assets such as U.S. Treasury Bond and the U.S. dollar. Gold futures for June delivery rose slightly by $0.90, or less than 0.1%, to settle at $1,842.10 an ounce on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Gold futures rose 1.7% this week, breaking a four-week losing streak.</p><p><b>Major European stock indexes collectively closed higher, with Germany's DAX30 index rising 0.7%</b></p><p>Major European stock indexes collectively closed higher, with Germany's DAX30 index rising 0.7%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VUKE.UK\">UK FTSE 100</a>The index rose 1.19%, France's CAC40 index rose 0.2%, and Europe's Stoxx 50 index rose 0.44%.</p><p><b>International macro</b></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2237042987\" target=\"_blank\"><b>G7 finance ministers focus on global market volatility, throwing all blame for inflation on Russia</b></a></p><p>After the recent decline in global markets, finance ministers from major economies pledged to keep a close eye on financial markets and pledged to further tighten monetary policy, blaming Russia entirely for the current inflationary shock.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2237028422\" target=\"_blank\"><b>Fed Bullard says early rate hike could give room to cut interest rates in 2023</b></a></p><p>St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said the Fed should implement a series of aggressive rate hike ahead of schedule and raise interest rates to 3.5% by the end of the year. If successful, it will push down inflation and bring the possibility of policy easing in 2023 or 2024.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2237047811\" target=\"_blank\"><b>Polls show Biden's approval rate falls to lowest in office</b></a></p><p>According to an opinion poll released by the Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Research, U.S. President Joe Biden's approval rating fell to the lowest level in his term in May, with only 39% of Americans approving his administration. In addition, only one-fifth of respondents in the United States think that the United States is developing in the right direction or its economy is good. There is a growing pessimism in Biden's Democratic Party. In the Democratic Party, about 33% of people think that the country is developing in the right direction, which is much lower than 49% in April. According to the Associated Press, these survey results reflect the general angry public sentiment of the American people after experiencing inflation, gun violence, sudden shortage of baby formula, and persistent COVID-19 pandemic.</p><p><b>Company News</b></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2237393049\" target=\"_blank\"><b>Musk meets with Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro to discuss cooperation matters such as rural networking and monitoring rainforests</b></a></p><p>Brazilian Communications Minister Fabio Faria announced on social media platforms that Elon Musk will arrive in Brazil on Friday at his invitation to discuss networking in rural areas and cooperation in monitoring deforestation with government officials. possibility.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2237042458\" target=\"_blank\"><b>Another thunderstorm for American retailers! Ross Department Store plunges more than 20%, biggest drop since 1986</b></a></p><p>The American discount department store chain giant Rose Department Store gapped open low by more than 24%. At the beginning of the session, its stock price fell to $69.76, a new low since March 2020, and fell by more than 22% during the day, the largest intraday decline since 1986. Before the stock price plummeted, Ross Department Store announced after the U.S. stock market closed on Thursday that its revenue, profit and same-store sales growth in the first fiscal quarter ended April 30 were all worse than expected.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/1140934699\" target=\"_blank\"><b>Tesla \"out of favor\"? No longer the largest holding of \"Sister Wood\" flagship fund</b></a></p><p>Tesla is losing the \"star\" status of Sister Wood's flagship fund. Since 2017, Tesla has been the number one holding of wood sister Kathy Wood's ARKK fund for most days, but it was recently defeated by Roku for the first time in about four and a half years.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2236043290\" target=\"_blank\"><b>EU plans to force Apple to allow developers access to all hardware and software features</b></a></p><p>The bloc is pushing ahead with legislation to tightly regulate companies such as Apple, developing plans to force \"gatekeepers\" to open access to hardware and software, and even setting up internal departments to meet the new rules, under an agreement approved by the bloc.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2236017202\" target=\"_blank\"><b>Netflix agrees to pay $59 million fine to resolve Italian tax dispute</b></a></p><p>Netflix agreed to pay a $59 million fine on Friday to resolve a tax dispute with the Italian government. Italian prosecutors have previously said that although Netflix has no physical presence in the country, its use of servers and other technologies in Italy is equivalent to having an entity in the country and is responsible for paying taxes in Italy.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2236019109\" target=\"_blank\"><b>Dutch company ASML manufactures new generation lithography</b></a></p><p>Netherlands<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ASML\">ASML</a>The company is making new extreme ultraviolet lithography, which will sell for about $400 million each. Reuters quoted senior executives of ASML as saying that the prototype of the new generation of high numerical aperture EUV lithography will be manufactured in the first half of 2023.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b23574aac95526c9e5c62ebc8dd25130","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1189815736","content_text":"道指创1923年来最长连跌纪录，标普V型反转脱离熊市边缘；美联储Bullard称提前加息可给2023年带来降息空间；特斯拉“失宠”？不再是“木头姐”旗舰基金最大持仓；美国又一零售商暴雷>>>海外市场收盘：道指连续第八周下跌，创1923年来最长连跌纪录纳指周五收跌0.3%，本周累跌3.82%，创周线7连跌；标普500指数微涨0.01%，本周累跌3.05%，创周线7连跌，为2001年来最长连跌纪录；道指涨0.03%，本周累跌2.9%，创周线8连跌，为1923年以来最长连跌。热门中概股涨跌互现，纳斯达克金龙指数跌0.86%中概股涨跌互现，纳斯达克金龙指数跌0.86%，收于6387点。百度跌0.69%，阿里巴巴跌0.89%，京东跌1.16%，美团跌2.45%，网易有道跌6.35%，滴滴跌6.83%；网易涨1.59%，微博涨1.03%，爱奇艺、虎牙、哔哩哔哩、唯品会涨逾0.8%。叮咚买菜跌13.12%，贝壳跌2.19%，拼多多跌2.73%；造车新势力中，蔚来跌1.26%，小鹏汽车跌1.19%，理想汽车收平。本周美油收高2.5%，布油涨0.9%6月WTI期货上涨 1.02美元，涨幅为0.9%，收于每桶113.23美元。ICE欧洲期货交易所7月交割的布伦特原油期货价格上涨51美分，涨幅为0.4%，收于每桶112.55美元。按照近月合约计算，本周美国WTI上涨2.5%，ICE布伦特原油上涨0.9%。本周黄金期货累计上涨1.7%，打破了连续四周下跌的跌势纽约黄金期货周五收盘持稳，但创下一个月来的首个周涨幅。在市场动荡的背景下，投资者转向美国国债和美元等避险资产。纽约商品交易所6月交割的黄金期货价格小幅上涨0.90美元，涨幅不到0.1%，收于每盎司1842.10美元。本周黄金期货累计上涨1.7%，打破了连续四周下跌的跌势。欧洲主要股指集体收涨，德国DAX30指数涨0.7%欧洲主要股指集体收涨，德国DAX30指数涨0.7%，英国富时100指数涨1.19%，法国CAC40指数涨0.2%，欧洲斯托克50指数涨0.44%。国际宏观七国集团财长聚焦全球市场波动，通胀罪责全部丢给俄罗斯在全球市场近期下跌之后，主要经济体的财政部长承诺将密切关注金融市场，并承诺进一步收紧货币政策，并把当前的通胀冲击完全归咎于俄罗斯。美联储Bullard称提前加息可给2023年带来降息空间圣路易斯联储行长James Bullard表示，美联储应该提前实施一系列激进的加息，在年底前将利率提高至3.5%，如果成功，将推低通胀，并给2023年或2024年带来放松政策的可能。民调显示拜登支持率跌至任内最低美联社-NORC公共研究中心公布的民意调查显示，美国总统拜登的支持率在5月份降至任期内最低，只有39%的美国人认可他的执政。此外，全美只有五分之一的受访者认为美国发展方向正确，或者经济良好。拜登所在的民主党中出现了越来越深的悲观情绪。民主党内，约33%的人认为国家发展方向正确，这大大低于4月的49%。美联社称，这些调查结果反映了美国民众在经历了通货膨胀、枪支暴力、婴儿配方奶粉突然短缺、持续的新冠疫情等困境后，普遍愤怒的公众情绪。公司新闻马斯克会见巴西总统博索纳罗，探讨农村联网、监测雨林等合作事宜巴西通信部长法比奥·法里亚在社交媒体平台上宣布，埃隆·马斯克应其邀请将于周五抵达巴西，与政府官员一同讨论在农村地区联网和在监测森林砍伐方面进行合作的可能性。又一美国零售商暴雷！罗斯百货狂跌逾20%创1986年来最大跌幅美国折扣百货连锁巨头罗斯百货跳空低开逾24%，盘初股价跌至69.76美元，创2020年3月来新低，日内跌超22%，创1986年来最大盘中跌幅。股价暴跌前，罗斯百货周四美股盘后公布，截至4月30日的第一财季收入、利润和同店销售增长均逊于预期。特斯拉“失宠”？不再是“木头姐”旗舰基金最大持仓特斯拉正在失去木头姐旗舰基金的“明星”地位。自2017年以来，特斯拉在大多数日子里都是木头姐凯西·伍德旗下 ARKK 基金的头号重仓股，却在最近被 Roku 击败，这是大约四年半以来的首次。欧盟计划迫使苹果允许开发者访问所有硬件和软件功能根据欧盟批准的一项协议，欧盟正在推进立法，对苹果等公司进行严格监管，制定计划迫使“守门人”开放硬件和软件的访问权限，甚至设立内部部门来满足新规则。奈飞同意支付5900万美元罚款解决意大利税务纠纷奈飞本周五同意支付5900万美元罚款，以解决与意大利政府的税务纠纷。意大利检察官此前表示，尽管奈飞在该国没有实体存在，但它在意大利使用服务器和其他技术等同于在该国拥有实体，有责任在意大利纳税。荷兰阿斯麦公司制造新一代光刻机荷兰阿斯麦公司正在制造新款极紫外线光刻机，每台售价约4亿美元。路透社援引阿斯麦公司高级管理人员的话报道，新一代高数值孔径EUV光刻机的原型机将在2023年上半年制造完成。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":493,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9087218372,"gmtCreate":1651016890960,"gmtModify":1676534833163,"author":{"id":"3572683426659077","authorId":"3572683426659077","name":"haiwei183","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1cae291bddff5a30eeb96060074d8531","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3572683426659077","idStr":"3572683426659077"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"look","listText":"look","text":"look","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9087218372","repostId":"2230048087","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":427,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9037438720,"gmtCreate":1648164699426,"gmtModify":1676534310958,"author":{"id":"3572683426659077","authorId":"3572683426659077","name":"haiwei183","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1cae291bddff5a30eeb96060074d8531","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3572683426659077","idStr":"3572683426659077"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"look","listText":"look","text":"look","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9037438720","repostId":"1193025107","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1193025107","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1648131304,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1193025107?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-03-24 22:15","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"BlackRock's letter to investors: The era of globalization is over, and supply chain reshaping will push up inflation","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1193025107","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"这家全球最大资产管理公司的掌门人预计，世界向清洁能源转型短期将降速，而长期会提速。3月24日周四，贝莱德掌门人拉里芬克在致投资者的信中警告称，俄乌冲突将重塑世界经济，促使企业撤出全球供应链，从而进一步","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>The head of the world's largest asset management company predicts that the world's transition to clean energy will slow down in the short term and accelerate in the long term. On Thursday, March 24, BlackRock head Larry Fink warned in a letter to investors that,<b>The Russia-Ukraine conflict will reshape the world economy and prompt companies to withdraw from global supply chains, further pushing up inflation.</b>He said:</p><p>\"The Russia-Ukraine conflict ended the globalization we have experienced over the past three decades.\" In the letter, Larry Fink also elaborated on his views on energy and digital currencies.<b>Energy</b>, he believes that in the short term, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine will inevitably slow down the world's progress towards clean energy, but in the long run, it will accelerate the world's transformation to green energy.<b>Digital currency,</b>He believes that the Russia-Ukraine crisis may accelerate the development of digital currencies.</p><p>At the end of '21, BlackRock managed $10 trillion in assets and was the world's largest asset manager. As the CEO and founder of this asset management giant, Larry Fink is known as the \"Godfather of Wall Street\".</p><p>The era of globalization is over, and supply chains push up global inflation</p><p>Fink pointed out that since COVID-19 pandemic, the global economy has been decoupling, and the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has exacerbated this trend. Going forward, businesses and governments will think more broadly about their dependence on other countries, which may lead to businesses moving more of their operations to their home countries or neighboring regions and \"withdrawing from some countries\" more quickly.</p><p>He believes that this anti-globalization \"decoupling\" will inevitably bring more challenges to enterprises, such as higher cost and profit pressure. And this large-scale \"repositioning\" of the supply chain will push up inflation. He said:</p><p>\"A massive repositioning of supply chains is inherently inflationary.\" Referring to central bank policy adjustments, Fink emphasized that major central banks are facing a dilemma they haven't faced in decades, namely having to choose between high inflation and slowing economic activity to curb price pressures.</p><p>Clean energy transition: short-term slowdown, long-term acceleration</p><p>Larry Fink pointed out that today, energy security has become the top priority of the global energy transition.</p><p>Energy prices have risen sharply due to the tailoring of Russian commodities. Fink believes this \"inevitably slows down\" the global move towards clean energy. Under the premise of ensuring energy security, next year, the focus of the United States will be to increase the supply of oil and natural gas, while coal consumption in Europe and Asia is likely to increase.</p><p>However, in the long run, this has accelerated the world's transition to green energy. There are two reasons for this:<b>First, policymakers will drive investment in renewable energy as an essential component of energy security.</b>For example, Germany has accelerated the time point to achieve 100% clean energy from 2050 to 2035.<b>Secondly, excessively high fossil energy prices make the price of clean energy more competitive.</b></p><p></body></html></p>","source":"highlight_wallstreetcn","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>BlackRock's letter to investors: The era of globalization is over, and supply chain reshaping will push up inflation</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBlackRock's letter to investors: The era of globalization is over, and supply chain reshaping will push up inflation\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-03-24 22:15</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>The head of the world's largest asset management company predicts that the world's transition to clean energy will slow down in the short term and accelerate in the long term. On Thursday, March 24, BlackRock head Larry Fink warned in a letter to investors that,<b>The Russia-Ukraine conflict will reshape the world economy and prompt companies to withdraw from global supply chains, further pushing up inflation.</b>He said:</p><p>\"The Russia-Ukraine conflict ended the globalization we have experienced over the past three decades.\" In the letter, Larry Fink also elaborated on his views on energy and digital currencies.<b>Energy</b>, he believes that in the short term, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine will inevitably slow down the world's progress towards clean energy, but in the long run, it will accelerate the world's transformation to green energy.<b>Digital currency,</b>He believes that the Russia-Ukraine crisis may accelerate the development of digital currencies.</p><p>At the end of '21, BlackRock managed $10 trillion in assets and was the world's largest asset manager. As the CEO and founder of this asset management giant, Larry Fink is known as the \"Godfather of Wall Street\".</p><p>The era of globalization is over, and supply chains push up global inflation</p><p>Fink pointed out that since COVID-19 pandemic, the global economy has been decoupling, and the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has exacerbated this trend. Going forward, businesses and governments will think more broadly about their dependence on other countries, which may lead to businesses moving more of their operations to their home countries or neighboring regions and \"withdrawing from some countries\" more quickly.</p><p>He believes that this anti-globalization \"decoupling\" will inevitably bring more challenges to enterprises, such as higher cost and profit pressure. And this large-scale \"repositioning\" of the supply chain will push up inflation. He said:</p><p>\"A massive repositioning of supply chains is inherently inflationary.\" Referring to central bank policy adjustments, Fink emphasized that major central banks are facing a dilemma they haven't faced in decades, namely having to choose between high inflation and slowing economic activity to curb price pressures.</p><p>Clean energy transition: short-term slowdown, long-term acceleration</p><p>Larry Fink pointed out that today, energy security has become the top priority of the global energy transition.</p><p>Energy prices have risen sharply due to the tailoring of Russian commodities. Fink believes this \"inevitably slows down\" the global move towards clean energy. Under the premise of ensuring energy security, next year, the focus of the United States will be to increase the supply of oil and natural gas, while coal consumption in Europe and Asia is likely to increase.</p><p>However, in the long run, this has accelerated the world's transition to green energy. There are two reasons for this:<b>First, policymakers will drive investment in renewable energy as an essential component of energy security.</b>For example, Germany has accelerated the time point to achieve 100% clean energy from 2050 to 2035.<b>Secondly, excessively high fossil energy prices make the price of clean energy more competitive.</b></p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3655152\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ad2dd670f9557c66480c84fc5e4bd415","relate_stocks":{"BLK":"贝莱德"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3655152","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/cc96873d3d23ee6ac10685520df9c100","article_id":"1193025107","content_text":"这家全球最大资产管理公司的掌门人预计，世界向清洁能源转型短期将降速，而长期会提速。3月24日周四，贝莱德掌门人拉里芬克在致投资者的信中警告称，俄乌冲突将重塑世界经济，促使企业撤出全球供应链，从而进一步推高通胀。他表示：“俄乌冲突结束了我们在过去三十年中所经历的全球化。”信中，拉里芬克还阐述了自己对能源及数字货币的看法。能源方面，他认为，短期来看俄乌冲突不可避免地减缓了世界向清洁能源迈进的进程，但长远来看，这加速了世界向绿色能源转化的脚步。数字货币方面，他认为俄乌危机或加速数字货币的发展。截至21年底，贝莱德管理着10万亿美元的资产，是全球最大的资产管理公司。作为这家资管巨头的CEO与创始人，拉里芬克被誉为“华尔街教父”。全球化时代终结，供应链推高全球通胀芬克指出，自新冠疫情以来，全球经济便走向脱钩，而俄乌冲突加剧了这一趋势。今后，企业和政府将更广泛地思考它们对其他国家的依赖，这可能会导致企业将更多业务转移到本国或邻近地区，并更快地“从一些国家撤出”。他认为，这种逆全球化的“脱钩”将不可避免地给企业带来更多挑战，如更高的成本和利润压力。而这种供应链的大规模“重新定位”，将会推高通胀。他表示：“供应链的大规模重新定位本质上会导致通货膨胀。”提到央行政策调整时，芬克强调，各大央行正面临数十年来从未面临过的两难局面，即必须在高通胀和经济活动放缓以遏制价格压力之间做出选择。清洁能源转型：短期降速，长期提速拉里芬克指出，如今，能源安全已成为全球能源转型的重中之重。由于对俄罗斯大宗商品的裁制，能源价格已大幅上涨。芬克认为，这“不可避免地减缓了”全球向清洁能源迈进的进程。在保障能源安全的前提下，明年，美国的重点是增加石油和天然气的供应，而欧洲和亚洲的煤炭消费可能会增加。不过，长期来看，这加速了世界向绿色能源转化的进度。原因有二：首先，政策制定者将推动对可再生能源的投资，将其作为能源安全的重要组成部分。例如，德国就已把实现100%清洁能源的时间点从2050年加速至2035年。其次，过高的化石能源价格使得清洁能源的价格更具竞争力。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BLK":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":611,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9048430365,"gmtCreate":1656237283757,"gmtModify":1676535790692,"author":{"id":"3572683426659077","authorId":"3572683426659077","name":"haiwei183","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1cae291bddff5a30eeb96060074d8531","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3572683426659077","idStr":"3572683426659077"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"look","listText":"look","text":"look","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9048430365","repostId":"1122634027","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1122634027","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"市场策略研究、热点问题观察、分享最新观点：美国与海外市场、H股、及中概股市场","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Kevin策略研究","id":"1090746012","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/54c3f16355434883aa8d30b4dc5a7d90"},"pubTimestamp":1656231072,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1122634027?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-06-26 16:11","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"Opinion | The historical relationship between recession risk and the bear market in US stocks","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1122634027","media":"Kevin策略研究","summary":"6月FOMC加息75bp后，衰退担忧明显升温。在当前快加息背景下美国经济后续陷入衰退也不算意外。那么，衰退风险对美股有何启示？有何经验值得借鉴？一、衰退风险多大？增长放缓是既定事实，衰退也有相当可能，","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>After the FOMC rate hike reached 75bp in June, recession concerns increased significantly. Under the current background of fast rate hike, it is not surprising that the U.S. economy will subsequently fall into recession. So, what does the recession risk mean for U.S. stocks? What experience is worth learning from?</p><p><b>1. What is the risk of recession? Slowing growth is a given fact, and a recession is quite possible, but the timing and depth of a recession are more important</b></p><p>U.S. growth and profits are already on a slowdown path, and a subsequent recession is also quite likely. Suddenly, rate hike itself will have a greater impact on demand.<b>Given the possibility of a slowdown or even a recession, the timing and depth of the recession are even more important</b>。<b>1) For recession time</b>, we estimate that the pressure on growth from tightening financial conditions may appear at the end of this year and early next year, not so soon.<b>2) For recession depth</b>The current relatively healthy balance sheet of the U.S. non-government sector indicates that at least it does not face a greater risk of debt crisis.</p><p><b>Second, the current \"correct\" question? If the probability of a deep recession is low, when the policy will retreat is a more meaningful question for the market</b></p><p>If the probability of a deep recession is small and will not come soon, the more meaningful question for the market is not whether there will be a recession, but when the policy will retreat.<b>Judging from the inflation and tightening path we calculate, it may correspond to the beginning of the fourth quarter after the third quarter</b>。 At this point, the market can enter the trading logic of bonds and growth. There are similarities between early 2019 and 1994.</p><p><b>3. Market impact under different degrees of recession: the average decline of mild recession is ~ 20%, and the valuation is supported by one standard deviation below</b></p><p>The United States has experienced 15 recessions since the 1920s. We divide the degree of recession by the decline of GDP. Compared with a deep recession (with a correction of more than 3%) and a mild recession, the former is usually accompanied by a balance sheet shock (such as 2008), so it lasts longer (13 months on average); The market decline was significantly larger and more sudden; Real estate finance is more sensitive to the degree of recession, and the growth of technology is smaller; The former valuation drag is greater and there is no support level, and the mild recession valuation can find support at one standard deviation below the mean.</p><p>This round of market decline from its high point has been equivalent to a mild recession (S&P 500 pullback/retracement 24%, Nasdaq 34%); The current dynamic valuation of 16.3 times is still 15 ~ 20% away from the support level of 13 times. We estimate that the reasonable level based on the 3.5% 10-year U.S. bond is around 14 times.</p><p><b>4. Is there any debt risk? The weak link of the US balance sheet</b></p><p>Except for government departments, the macro leverage level of financial and non-financial enterprises and residents in the United States is at a relatively healthy level, far lower than that of the 2008 financial crisis. This is also one of the main bases for us to judge that the probability of a deep recession like a debt crisis is low at present. Some weak links, such as high-yield bonds and consumer loans for low-and middle-income people, deserve attention.</p><p><b>Focus Discussion: Recession Risks in the U.S. Economy vs. Bear Market Pressure in the U.S. Market</b></p><p>After the Fed's \"temporary\" rate hike of 75bp at the June FOMC meeting (\"June FOMC: Radical and Forward Path or the Current\" Optimal Solution \"),<b>The logic of market trading rapidly switched from high inflation and rapid contraction to weak growth, and recession fears increased significantly.</b>Affected by this, the 10-year US Treasury yields once dropped by around 3% from a high of 3.5%. At the same time, the higher gold-copper ratio last week, the sharp drop in oil prices, and the growth-style Nasdaq leading the gains may also be related to this expectation.</p><p><b>In the short term, we don't think the market's response to recession fears is excessive. However, it is also an indisputable fact that the current growth of the United States is gradually slowing down, and it is not surprising that it will subsequently fall into recession under the current background of rapid rate hike.</b>So, what does the recession risk mean for U.S. stocks and Fed policy? What experience in history is worth learning from? We will analyze it specifically in this article.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/334e4412ff2824eef6c9d55081154272\" tg-width=\"1003\" tg-height=\"407\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>1. How big is the risk of recession? Slowing growth is a given fact, and a recession is quite possible, but the timing and depth of a recession are more important</b></p><p>Under the combined effect of high base, high cost, high inventory, high interest rate and weak demand,<b>U.S. growth and corporate earnings are already on a slowing path and will continue to fall</b>(\"U.S. Stock Earnings Enter a Downward Channel\"), which is also the general consensus of the current market.<b>If this path continues, a recession is also quite likely</b>。</p><p>Although Federal Reserve Chairman Powell stated after the FOMC meeting and at last week's congressional hearing that it is not the Fed's subjective will to actively guide a recession (indicating that the possibility of an economic recession exists and a soft landing is very challenging),<b>However, the rapid tightening of financial conditions brought about by the fast rate hike will itself have a greater impact on demand</b>(The sudden rise in 30-year and 10-year mortgage interest rates has brought an immediate negative impact on the demand for real estate in the United States, and the number of mortgage applications and house sales have dropped rapidly). At the same time, the aftermath of the sudden monetary tightening is bound to gradually emerge (just like the image metaphor of former US Treasury Secretary Summers about the delayed change of faucet water temperature in a recent exclusive interview).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5cffff211142d658726f70e8df3ba0ba\" tg-width=\"952\" tg-height=\"748\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Given the possibility of slowing growth or even a recession, the timing and depth of the recession are even more important</b>, because falling into recession too quickly will put the Fed's policy in a dilemma, and the market will also bear the dual pressure of valuation and profitability; A deep recession will have a more severe and lasting impact on earnings.</p><p><b>1) For the recession time, we try to estimate it by the tightness of financial conditions (the extent to which financing costs exceed the return on investment)</b>The advantage is that it is ahead of the economic indicators themselves and can \"observe\" the intentions of the Fed, because excessively high interest rates and excessively tight financial conditions will inevitably bring greater growth pressure, and at the same time, it also means that the Fed wants to curb demand to achieve the purpose of controlling inflation (looking back at history, when financial conditions turn positive, the Fed usually stops rate hike, except in the late 1970s).</p><p>We use the 3m10s interest rate spread and the two dimensions of actual corporate financing costs (investment-grade bond yields) and investment returns (real GDP growth) to calculate separately, based on the current Federal Reserve dot plot and the pace of rate hike implied by CME interest rate futures (rate hike from July to November were 75bp, 50bp and 25bp respectively),<b>Tighter financial conditions may put pressure on growth late this year and early next year</b>(Corresponding to the inversion of 3m10s in November and the financing cost exceeding the historical experience threshold of 250bp return on investment early next year) (\"How to Understand the Mechanism and Impact of Tightening Financial Conditions\"). In addition, although the Conference Board's economic leading indicators have continued to decline since the beginning of the year, the year-on-year growth rate has not yet turned negative. From the perspective of the relationship with the recession, it also indicates that there may still be some way to go.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e3a5138665145a96277c213deb9296ef\" tg-width=\"961\" tg-height=\"684\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/034aec2af916f73b6ec4b6fb25aa0487\" tg-width=\"950\" tg-height=\"450\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c24f3cfc53848e33450b5a868abaf19e\" tg-width=\"940\" tg-height=\"447\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ea2296dc54d0f47f2b822aafe68d3e6c\" tg-width=\"960\" tg-height=\"449\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>2) For recession depth</b>The current relatively healthy balance sheet status of the U.S. non-government sector indicates that at least it does not face a greater risk of debt crisis. In other words, even if there is a recession, there is a high probability that it will not be a deep recession similar to the 2008 financial crisis.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70c25abd8081ea3a609855816e1c07e4\" tg-width=\"824\" tg-height=\"554\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Second, the current \"correct\" question? If the probability of a deep recession is low, when the policy will retreat is a more meaningful question for the market</b></p><p>If the probability of a deep recession is small and may not come soon,<b>Then the more meaningful question for markets is not whether there will be a recession, but when the policy will retreat</b>。 In the process of slowing growth, if the Fed's policy can decline or even turn after completing the \"task\" (such as inflation reaches an inflection point and Federal Funds rate effectively exceeds the neutral interest rate), then the market can enter the trading logic of slowing growth and loose policy. According to our \"improved version\" Merrill Lynch clock based on real interest rates and inflation expectations, inflation corresponds to bond assets and stock market growth styles relatively outperform.</p><p><b>Judging from our calculated inflation and tightening path, this point in time may correspond to after the third quarter</b>, mainly considering that U.S. inflation will once again usher in a high year-on-year base starting in September, and at the same time, the current rate hike path may gradually slow down after September.</p><p>In fact, the market stabilization in early 2019 showed this characteristic. The opportunity for the market to bottom out was that Powell sent a dovish signal in early 2019, but the real interest rate cut occurred half a year later in July 2019, and the growth improved until the third quarter. The rapid rate hike similar to the current Greenspan period in 1994 did not lead to a \"crash\" of the market, and to a certain extent, it also benefited from the timely \"closure\" of the policy.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3683dd57c129b31cc443df6926beb01f\" tg-width=\"797\" tg-height=\"530\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b2214bbade68b88971ad5f6d2eff5c1b\" tg-width=\"949\" tg-height=\"386\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>3. Market impact under different degrees of recession: the average decline of mild recession is ~ 20%, and the valuation is supported below one standard deviation</b></p><p><b>Different recessions have different degrees and times of impact on the economy, so naturally they have different impacts on the market.</b>Referring to the definition of the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), the United States has experienced 15 recessions since the late 1920s, with a median duration of ~ 10.1 months. The longest of which was the Great Depression (44 months) that began in 1929. The shortest was the 2020 epidemic (only 2 months).</p><p><b>We define the degree of recession by the decline of GDP from the peak. Empirical values show that a correction exceeding 3% is a deep recession, and a correction less than 3% is a mild recession.</b>Based on this definition, since the late 1920s, there have been a total of 7 deep recessions (1929-1933, 1937-1938, 1945, 1957-1958, 1973-1975, 2007-2009, 2020), with duration The median time is 13.2 months; There were 8 mild recessions (1948-1949, 1953-1954, 1960-1961, 1969-1970, 1980, 1981-1982, 1990-1991, 2001), with an average duration of 10 months. Generally speaking, a larger recession is usually accompanied by a crisis on the balance sheet, so a greater impact is slower and more difficult to repair (typically the 2008 financial crisis), while a small recession has a relatively limited impact on the balance sheet. Repair is also faster.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/68c8b2234e6976a8efd806a5e8cc2cd9\" tg-width=\"954\" tg-height=\"800\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Based on the above division, we find that there are also \"distinct\" differences in market and sector performance.</b></p><p><b>1) Overall performance:</b>During a deep recession, the median maximum pullback/retracement of the S&P 500 is 44%, which is much larger than the 19% pullback/retracement during a mild recession.</p><p><b>2) Look at the time point</b>: The starting point of market decline is closer to the recession period during deep recession (the high point is 1.5 months ahead), while the decline begins earlier during mild recession (the market high point is 2.4 months ahead of the recession); But the end time is just the opposite. The market bottom is 6 months earlier than the end of a deep recession, and the market bottoms 5.1 months earlier than the mild recession.</p><p><b>3) Industry performance</b>: The decline during the recession of daily consumption and defensive sectors is generally small, which is in line with the characteristics of defensive sectors; However, the decline of real estate, financial services, media, utilities, insurance and other sectors is more sharp in deep recessions, which means that such sectors are more sensitive to the degree of recession, compared with the growth-style technology sector, which is less sensitive<b>。</b></p><p><b>4) Valuation and earnings:</b>Limited by valuation data, we have observed that during different recessions since the 1950s, the drag on earnings is roughly the same (the median deep recession is 2.4% vs. the median mild recession is 4.3%), and the difference in valuation drag is even more significant (median deep recession 35% vs. mild recession 18%).</p><p><b>5) Absolute valuation level:</b>The S&P 500 index has basically maintained one standard deviation below the mean in the past three decades, which can be supported (corresponding to a 12-month dynamic valuation of about 13 times, such as the 1994 rate hike cycle, the low point of the technology bubble in 2002, and the 2018 market turmoil and the 2020 epidemic); In contrast, a deep recession will \"break the position\". For example, during the deep recession in 2008, the valuation fell as low as 9 times.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9eaa6773a5a9ed1645bad6b879ffd1cd\" tg-width=\"1007\" tg-height=\"832\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7082e70bbbd68294fca49d648b0e26dd\" tg-width=\"995\" tg-height=\"381\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>In comparison, the current market decline from the high point is close to the average of mild recession (the largest pullback/retracement of the S&P 500 is 24%, and the largest pullback/retracement of the Nasdaq is 34%), while the current dynamic valuation of 16.3 times There is still 20.5% downside from the support level of mild recession. Based on the 10-year US Treasury yields of 3.5% and the current growth environment, we estimate that the reasonable level is about 14 times.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b36780fe4ba715c4a45795cd0e61dcb2\" tg-width=\"582\" tg-height=\"686\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>4. Is there any debt risk? The weak link of the US balance sheet</b></p><p>Overall, except for government departments, the macro leverage level of financial and non-financial enterprises and residential sectors in the United States is at a relatively healthy level, far lower than the 2008 financial crisis. Therefore,<b>This is also one of the main bases for us to judge that the probability of a deep recession like a debt crisis is low at present.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70c25abd8081ea3a609855816e1c07e4\" tg-width=\"824\" tg-height=\"554\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Thanks to the continued deleveraging of U.S. residents after the subprime mortgage crisis, and three rounds of U.S. fiscal stimulus totaling US $6 trillion after the epidemic to protect the balance sheets of residents and businesses, the current U.S. resident leverage ratio is at a low level (75.1% vs. 74.2% in the fourth quarter of 2019), and the corporate leverage ratio is also close to the pre-epidemic level (77.7% vs. 75.1% in the fourth quarter of 2019). In the process of the Fed's accelerated tightening, the overall debt risk is controllable, but there are also some weak links that need attention. Specifically:</p><p><b>1) Residents: Healthy overall balance sheet; Middle-income people are more exposed.</b>Since 2022, U.S. household consumption has been quite resilient. Against the background that commodity consumption has begun to slow down, service consumption still maintains a relatively high growth rate. However, the current abundant excess savings (US $2.3 trillion) and resilient household consumption have deviated greatly from the consumer confidence that has continued to drop to a low point. For example, the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index was 50.2 in May, exceeding During the subprime mortgage crisis, it reached the level of the 1970s; The Conference Board's consumer confidence index was relatively higher at 106 in April, which may reflect the differentiation of people with different income levels.<b>A) High-income people have high asset growth and low leverage</b>。 As of the first quarter, the cash assets (savings and money funds) of the top 20% residents increased by 41.4% compared with the fourth quarter of 2019, while the liabilities/assets were the lowest among all people (3.8%).<b>b) High leverage among middle-income people</b>, the income quantile is between 20% and 80%, and the residents' liabilities/assets are close to 20%, but lower than the level of the subprime mortgage crisis.<b>c) The cash assets of low-income people have declined and their liabilities are not high</b>。 The main problem of people with income quantiles in the bottom 20% is that their assets are not high (cash assets fell by 1.2% month-on-month in the first quarter), and they are more susceptible to the squeeze of high inflation. However, what is relatively positive is that their liabilities are not high (15%), so they do not face a greater risk of default.</p><p>From the perspective of different types of liabilities on the resident side, the scale and proportion of student loans, auto loans and consumer credit have increased much more since the financial crisis than mortgage loans (as of the first quarter, mortgage loans/GDP was 50.2%, and consumer loans/GDP was 18.6%, but the improvement is faster), so it may be a weak link worthy of more attention.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d693ab3698ca973cf8f45563ae80d4e5\" tg-width=\"998\" tg-height=\"819\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d24c9810f3661b4b03b74bbad46e918b\" tg-width=\"994\" tg-height=\"401\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3eb51d83baa2cd64d0a29e0c03da4105\" tg-width=\"1004\" tg-height=\"820\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>2) Enterprise side: overall leverage improves and solvency improves; Focus on High Yield and Small Business Exposure</b>。 Although the U.S. corporate side has not experienced a substantial deleveraging process like the residential side, the leverage ratio of non-financial companies in the first quarter was 78%, and the net leverage ratio of S&P 500 non-financial companies was 74%, both higher than during the subprime mortgage crisis, but relative to the epidemic There is still improvement, and solvency has also been repaired (\"U.S. Stock Earnings Enter a Downward Channel\").</p><p>In \"Looking at the Weak Links under Tightening from the Turmoil of European and Japanese Bond Markets\", we pointed out that the credit spread in the United States has risen rapidly recently (high yield and investment grade are 5.3 ppt and 2.0 ppt respectively), the highest since 2015. Credit bonds, especially high-yield bonds, have significantly underperformed the Treasury Bond recently, accompanied by obvious capital outflows, so the potential risk exposure deserves attention. But what is relatively positive is that the maturity scale of U.S. high-yield bonds is only US $80 billion by the end of 2023, and the repayment pressure is not great.<b>In addition, small businesses in the United States are also worthy of attention due to high costs and tightening financial conditions.</b>We observe the short-term liquidity pressure and default risk of enterprises with current assets/short-term liabilities, and find that ~ 17% of listed companies in the United States are less than 1, with energy, raw materials, and consumer services accounting for the highest proportion; However, the market value accounts for only 0.6%, which indicates that the risk exposure is more dominated by small businesses and concentrated in sectors such as public utilities, finance and communications.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/789df80c100efce746b6f61d246b9607\" tg-width=\"998\" tg-height=\"404\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Market Dynamics: Powell emphasizes anti-inflation stance; Recession fears rise, as interest rates fall, bulk plummets, growth leads, and rate hike expectations fall</b></p><p><b>► Asset performance: Asset performance: stocks > bonds > bulk; Recession fears heat up, interest rates fall, bulk tumbles, growth leads the way</b></p><p><b>Market recession fears have heated up over the past week</b>, the performance is reflected in the 10-year US Treasury yields falling back to 3.1%, the bulk generally fell, and the growth style represented by FAAMNG and Nasdaq rebounded significantly. The decline in the initial value of Markit manufacturing PMI in the United States in June further reflected this situation. Market rate hike expectations fell, and the rate hike in September fell from 75bp to 50bp. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's hearing made it clear that a rate hike may lead to a recession, and it is challenging to achieve a soft landing, but the Fed will fight high inflation unconditionally. In order to reduce the pressure on oil prices, Biden expressed this week that he hopes to suspend the federal gasoline tax in the next three months. Brent crude oil prices once approached $107/barrel during the session, but supply and demand factors supported oil prices to close at $113/barrel this week.</p><p>Overall, under US dollar pricing, stocks > bonds > bulk; U.S. Chinese concept stocks, FAAMNG, Russian stock market, and Nasdaq led the gains; Wheat, natural gas, copper, soybeans and others led the decline. In terms of sectors, autos and parts, household goods, biotechnology, etc. in the S&P 500 led the gains, while only energy fell.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7793b1095eb898974815d115b18b5545\" tg-width=\"1005\" tg-height=\"471\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>► Liquidity: FRA-OIS Narrows, Credit Spreads Higher</b></p><p>In the past week, the FRA-OIS spread narrowed to 20bp, the 90-day commercial bill spread in the financial industry widened, and the non-financial industry narrowed. Credit spreads all widened, and three-month cross-swaps between euro, yen, pound and dollar all narrowed. The willingness to lend funds in the US repo market has increased. In addition, the use of reverse repurchases by major U.S. financial institutions on the Federal Reserve's account dropped slightly but remained at a high level of US $2.2 trillion.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/27b42fb05ab53b72567cc062011fc44b\" tg-width=\"997\" tg-height=\"764\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f03ee33446ac7eaac98e103647798bdf\" tg-width=\"999\" tg-height=\"407\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>► Emotional positions: Oversold in the US and Europe eased; U.S. stocks turn net short</b></p><p>In the past week, the VIX index has fallen as a whole, and the bearish/bullish ratio (10-day average) of US stocks has fallen. The oversold degree of European, American and emerging stock markets has eased. In terms of positions, speculative positions in U.S. stocks turned into net short positions, speculative net long positions in the U.S. dollar continued to increase, speculative net short positions in copper futures increased, net short positions in 10-year U.S. bonds increased, and net short positions in 2-year U.S. bonds decreased.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8c809e3bf63c5c634305510bc15ca24f\" tg-width=\"987\" tg-height=\"733\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/feb8364d0d2ce59fcb66c126a188f31b\" tg-width=\"986\" tg-height=\"377\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>► Fund flow: Bond outflows accelerate, U.S. stocks turn into outflows</b></p><p>In the past week, bond outflows have accelerated, stocks have turned to outflows, and money funds have turned to inflows. In terms of markets, the Japanese market has turned into inflows, Europe has accelerated outflows, and emerging markets and the United States have turned into outflows; South Korea and Vietnam recorded inflows, while India and China recorded significant outflows.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9aa57fb5504f4f9ecf1c1143c8737a58\" tg-width=\"992\" tg-height=\"756\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c7a5c011552507ab7f70bb132b98687a\" tg-width=\"982\" tg-height=\"402\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>► Fundamentals and policies: The initial PMI values of European and American manufacturing and service industries fell significantly</b></p><p><b>United States: The initial value of manufacturing PMI fell significantly in June, and demand weakened.</b>The Markit manufacturing PMI recorded 52.4 in June, lower than the previous value of 57 and the expected value of 56, a new low since July 2020. Against the background of high inflation and falling consumer confidence, weakening demand caused new PMI orders and output to fall sharply back to the contraction range in June, hitting a new low since June 2020. Supply deliveries improved slightly, and finished goods inventories rebounded, indicating a slight easing of supply pressure. The initial value of Markit services PMI in June was 51.6, lower than expectations (53.5) and the previous value (53.4), a five-month low.</p><p><b>Eurozone: The initial PMI value of manufacturing and service industries fell significantly in June.</b>The preliminary Markit manufacturing PMI value in June fell to 52, lower than expectations and previous values (53.8 and 54.6), the lowest level since August 2020. New orders, output and other sub-items have dropped significantly, and have fallen back to the contraction range. Under high inflation and geopolitical uncertainty, the economic growth and demand of the euro zone have weakened. Supply deliveries improved slightly, and finished goods inventories rebounded, indicating a slight easing of supply pressure. The preliminary value of the Services PMI fell to 52.8, which was lower than expectations and the previous values (54 and 54.8).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9147cb5405791940c42115acc3374dfd\" tg-width=\"1028\" tg-height=\"814\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>► Market valuation: still above reasonable levels for growth and liquidity</b></p><p><b>Still above reasonable levels of growth and liquidity.</b>The current dynamic P/E of the S&P 500 of 16.3 times is higher than the reasonable level that growth and liquidity can support (~ 15.1 times), and the valuation of U.S. stocks has fallen below the next standard deviation.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ab80789d31fe8c18bf2436ee0ecd8dfe\" tg-width=\"1005\" tg-height=\"767\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/08d11bae2d8a5ee7beb59f5929e0ba85\" tg-width=\"1010\" tg-height=\"409\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Opinion | The historical relationship between recession risk and the bear market in US stocks</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nOpinion | The historical relationship between recession risk and the bear market in US stocks\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1090746012\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/54c3f16355434883aa8d30b4dc5a7d90);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Kevin策略研究 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-06-26 16:11</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>After the FOMC rate hike reached 75bp in June, recession concerns increased significantly. Under the current background of fast rate hike, it is not surprising that the U.S. economy will subsequently fall into recession. So, what does the recession risk mean for U.S. stocks? What experience is worth learning from?</p><p><b>1. What is the risk of recession? Slowing growth is a given fact, and a recession is quite possible, but the timing and depth of a recession are more important</b></p><p>U.S. growth and profits are already on a slowdown path, and a subsequent recession is also quite likely. Suddenly, rate hike itself will have a greater impact on demand.<b>Given the possibility of a slowdown or even a recession, the timing and depth of the recession are even more important</b>。<b>1) For recession time</b>, we estimate that the pressure on growth from tightening financial conditions may appear at the end of this year and early next year, not so soon.<b>2) For recession depth</b>The current relatively healthy balance sheet of the U.S. non-government sector indicates that at least it does not face a greater risk of debt crisis.</p><p><b>Second, the current \"correct\" question? If the probability of a deep recession is low, when the policy will retreat is a more meaningful question for the market</b></p><p>If the probability of a deep recession is small and will not come soon, the more meaningful question for the market is not whether there will be a recession, but when the policy will retreat.<b>Judging from the inflation and tightening path we calculate, it may correspond to the beginning of the fourth quarter after the third quarter</b>。 At this point, the market can enter the trading logic of bonds and growth. There are similarities between early 2019 and 1994.</p><p><b>3. Market impact under different degrees of recession: the average decline of mild recession is ~ 20%, and the valuation is supported by one standard deviation below</b></p><p>The United States has experienced 15 recessions since the 1920s. We divide the degree of recession by the decline of GDP. Compared with a deep recession (with a correction of more than 3%) and a mild recession, the former is usually accompanied by a balance sheet shock (such as 2008), so it lasts longer (13 months on average); The market decline was significantly larger and more sudden; Real estate finance is more sensitive to the degree of recession, and the growth of technology is smaller; The former valuation drag is greater and there is no support level, and the mild recession valuation can find support at one standard deviation below the mean.</p><p>This round of market decline from its high point has been equivalent to a mild recession (S&P 500 pullback/retracement 24%, Nasdaq 34%); The current dynamic valuation of 16.3 times is still 15 ~ 20% away from the support level of 13 times. We estimate that the reasonable level based on the 3.5% 10-year U.S. bond is around 14 times.</p><p><b>4. Is there any debt risk? The weak link of the US balance sheet</b></p><p>Except for government departments, the macro leverage level of financial and non-financial enterprises and residents in the United States is at a relatively healthy level, far lower than that of the 2008 financial crisis. This is also one of the main bases for us to judge that the probability of a deep recession like a debt crisis is low at present. Some weak links, such as high-yield bonds and consumer loans for low-and middle-income people, deserve attention.</p><p><b>Focus Discussion: Recession Risks in the U.S. Economy vs. Bear Market Pressure in the U.S. Market</b></p><p>After the Fed's \"temporary\" rate hike of 75bp at the June FOMC meeting (\"June FOMC: Radical and Forward Path or the Current\" Optimal Solution \"),<b>The logic of market trading rapidly switched from high inflation and rapid contraction to weak growth, and recession fears increased significantly.</b>Affected by this, the 10-year US Treasury yields once dropped by around 3% from a high of 3.5%. At the same time, the higher gold-copper ratio last week, the sharp drop in oil prices, and the growth-style Nasdaq leading the gains may also be related to this expectation.</p><p><b>In the short term, we don't think the market's response to recession fears is excessive. However, it is also an indisputable fact that the current growth of the United States is gradually slowing down, and it is not surprising that it will subsequently fall into recession under the current background of rapid rate hike.</b>So, what does the recession risk mean for U.S. stocks and Fed policy? What experience in history is worth learning from? We will analyze it specifically in this article.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/334e4412ff2824eef6c9d55081154272\" tg-width=\"1003\" tg-height=\"407\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>1. How big is the risk of recession? Slowing growth is a given fact, and a recession is quite possible, but the timing and depth of a recession are more important</b></p><p>Under the combined effect of high base, high cost, high inventory, high interest rate and weak demand,<b>U.S. growth and corporate earnings are already on a slowing path and will continue to fall</b>(\"U.S. Stock Earnings Enter a Downward Channel\"), which is also the general consensus of the current market.<b>If this path continues, a recession is also quite likely</b>。</p><p>Although Federal Reserve Chairman Powell stated after the FOMC meeting and at last week's congressional hearing that it is not the Fed's subjective will to actively guide a recession (indicating that the possibility of an economic recession exists and a soft landing is very challenging),<b>However, the rapid tightening of financial conditions brought about by the fast rate hike will itself have a greater impact on demand</b>(The sudden rise in 30-year and 10-year mortgage interest rates has brought an immediate negative impact on the demand for real estate in the United States, and the number of mortgage applications and house sales have dropped rapidly). At the same time, the aftermath of the sudden monetary tightening is bound to gradually emerge (just like the image metaphor of former US Treasury Secretary Summers about the delayed change of faucet water temperature in a recent exclusive interview).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5cffff211142d658726f70e8df3ba0ba\" tg-width=\"952\" tg-height=\"748\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Given the possibility of slowing growth or even a recession, the timing and depth of the recession are even more important</b>, because falling into recession too quickly will put the Fed's policy in a dilemma, and the market will also bear the dual pressure of valuation and profitability; A deep recession will have a more severe and lasting impact on earnings.</p><p><b>1) For the recession time, we try to estimate it by the tightness of financial conditions (the extent to which financing costs exceed the return on investment)</b>The advantage is that it is ahead of the economic indicators themselves and can \"observe\" the intentions of the Fed, because excessively high interest rates and excessively tight financial conditions will inevitably bring greater growth pressure, and at the same time, it also means that the Fed wants to curb demand to achieve the purpose of controlling inflation (looking back at history, when financial conditions turn positive, the Fed usually stops rate hike, except in the late 1970s).</p><p>We use the 3m10s interest rate spread and the two dimensions of actual corporate financing costs (investment-grade bond yields) and investment returns (real GDP growth) to calculate separately, based on the current Federal Reserve dot plot and the pace of rate hike implied by CME interest rate futures (rate hike from July to November were 75bp, 50bp and 25bp respectively),<b>Tighter financial conditions may put pressure on growth late this year and early next year</b>(Corresponding to the inversion of 3m10s in November and the financing cost exceeding the historical experience threshold of 250bp return on investment early next year) (\"How to Understand the Mechanism and Impact of Tightening Financial Conditions\"). In addition, although the Conference Board's economic leading indicators have continued to decline since the beginning of the year, the year-on-year growth rate has not yet turned negative. From the perspective of the relationship with the recession, it also indicates that there may still be some way to go.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e3a5138665145a96277c213deb9296ef\" tg-width=\"961\" tg-height=\"684\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/034aec2af916f73b6ec4b6fb25aa0487\" tg-width=\"950\" tg-height=\"450\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c24f3cfc53848e33450b5a868abaf19e\" tg-width=\"940\" tg-height=\"447\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ea2296dc54d0f47f2b822aafe68d3e6c\" tg-width=\"960\" tg-height=\"449\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>2) For recession depth</b>The current relatively healthy balance sheet status of the U.S. non-government sector indicates that at least it does not face a greater risk of debt crisis. In other words, even if there is a recession, there is a high probability that it will not be a deep recession similar to the 2008 financial crisis.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70c25abd8081ea3a609855816e1c07e4\" tg-width=\"824\" tg-height=\"554\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Second, the current \"correct\" question? If the probability of a deep recession is low, when the policy will retreat is a more meaningful question for the market</b></p><p>If the probability of a deep recession is small and may not come soon,<b>Then the more meaningful question for markets is not whether there will be a recession, but when the policy will retreat</b>。 In the process of slowing growth, if the Fed's policy can decline or even turn after completing the \"task\" (such as inflation reaches an inflection point and Federal Funds rate effectively exceeds the neutral interest rate), then the market can enter the trading logic of slowing growth and loose policy. According to our \"improved version\" Merrill Lynch clock based on real interest rates and inflation expectations, inflation corresponds to bond assets and stock market growth styles relatively outperform.</p><p><b>Judging from our calculated inflation and tightening path, this point in time may correspond to after the third quarter</b>, mainly considering that U.S. inflation will once again usher in a high year-on-year base starting in September, and at the same time, the current rate hike path may gradually slow down after September.</p><p>In fact, the market stabilization in early 2019 showed this characteristic. The opportunity for the market to bottom out was that Powell sent a dovish signal in early 2019, but the real interest rate cut occurred half a year later in July 2019, and the growth improved until the third quarter. The rapid rate hike similar to the current Greenspan period in 1994 did not lead to a \"crash\" of the market, and to a certain extent, it also benefited from the timely \"closure\" of the policy.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3683dd57c129b31cc443df6926beb01f\" tg-width=\"797\" tg-height=\"530\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b2214bbade68b88971ad5f6d2eff5c1b\" tg-width=\"949\" tg-height=\"386\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>3. Market impact under different degrees of recession: the average decline of mild recession is ~ 20%, and the valuation is supported below one standard deviation</b></p><p><b>Different recessions have different degrees and times of impact on the economy, so naturally they have different impacts on the market.</b>Referring to the definition of the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), the United States has experienced 15 recessions since the late 1920s, with a median duration of ~ 10.1 months. The longest of which was the Great Depression (44 months) that began in 1929. The shortest was the 2020 epidemic (only 2 months).</p><p><b>We define the degree of recession by the decline of GDP from the peak. Empirical values show that a correction exceeding 3% is a deep recession, and a correction less than 3% is a mild recession.</b>Based on this definition, since the late 1920s, there have been a total of 7 deep recessions (1929-1933, 1937-1938, 1945, 1957-1958, 1973-1975, 2007-2009, 2020), with duration The median time is 13.2 months; There were 8 mild recessions (1948-1949, 1953-1954, 1960-1961, 1969-1970, 1980, 1981-1982, 1990-1991, 2001), with an average duration of 10 months. Generally speaking, a larger recession is usually accompanied by a crisis on the balance sheet, so a greater impact is slower and more difficult to repair (typically the 2008 financial crisis), while a small recession has a relatively limited impact on the balance sheet. Repair is also faster.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/68c8b2234e6976a8efd806a5e8cc2cd9\" tg-width=\"954\" tg-height=\"800\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Based on the above division, we find that there are also \"distinct\" differences in market and sector performance.</b></p><p><b>1) Overall performance:</b>During a deep recession, the median maximum pullback/retracement of the S&P 500 is 44%, which is much larger than the 19% pullback/retracement during a mild recession.</p><p><b>2) Look at the time point</b>: The starting point of market decline is closer to the recession period during deep recession (the high point is 1.5 months ahead), while the decline begins earlier during mild recession (the market high point is 2.4 months ahead of the recession); But the end time is just the opposite. The market bottom is 6 months earlier than the end of a deep recession, and the market bottoms 5.1 months earlier than the mild recession.</p><p><b>3) Industry performance</b>: The decline during the recession of daily consumption and defensive sectors is generally small, which is in line with the characteristics of defensive sectors; However, the decline of real estate, financial services, media, utilities, insurance and other sectors is more sharp in deep recessions, which means that such sectors are more sensitive to the degree of recession, compared with the growth-style technology sector, which is less sensitive<b>。</b></p><p><b>4) Valuation and earnings:</b>Limited by valuation data, we have observed that during different recessions since the 1950s, the drag on earnings is roughly the same (the median deep recession is 2.4% vs. the median mild recession is 4.3%), and the difference in valuation drag is even more significant (median deep recession 35% vs. mild recession 18%).</p><p><b>5) Absolute valuation level:</b>The S&P 500 index has basically maintained one standard deviation below the mean in the past three decades, which can be supported (corresponding to a 12-month dynamic valuation of about 13 times, such as the 1994 rate hike cycle, the low point of the technology bubble in 2002, and the 2018 market turmoil and the 2020 epidemic); In contrast, a deep recession will \"break the position\". For example, during the deep recession in 2008, the valuation fell as low as 9 times.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9eaa6773a5a9ed1645bad6b879ffd1cd\" tg-width=\"1007\" tg-height=\"832\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7082e70bbbd68294fca49d648b0e26dd\" tg-width=\"995\" tg-height=\"381\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>In comparison, the current market decline from the high point is close to the average of mild recession (the largest pullback/retracement of the S&P 500 is 24%, and the largest pullback/retracement of the Nasdaq is 34%), while the current dynamic valuation of 16.3 times There is still 20.5% downside from the support level of mild recession. Based on the 10-year US Treasury yields of 3.5% and the current growth environment, we estimate that the reasonable level is about 14 times.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b36780fe4ba715c4a45795cd0e61dcb2\" tg-width=\"582\" tg-height=\"686\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>4. Is there any debt risk? The weak link of the US balance sheet</b></p><p>Overall, except for government departments, the macro leverage level of financial and non-financial enterprises and residential sectors in the United States is at a relatively healthy level, far lower than the 2008 financial crisis. Therefore,<b>This is also one of the main bases for us to judge that the probability of a deep recession like a debt crisis is low at present.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70c25abd8081ea3a609855816e1c07e4\" tg-width=\"824\" tg-height=\"554\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Thanks to the continued deleveraging of U.S. residents after the subprime mortgage crisis, and three rounds of U.S. fiscal stimulus totaling US $6 trillion after the epidemic to protect the balance sheets of residents and businesses, the current U.S. resident leverage ratio is at a low level (75.1% vs. 74.2% in the fourth quarter of 2019), and the corporate leverage ratio is also close to the pre-epidemic level (77.7% vs. 75.1% in the fourth quarter of 2019). In the process of the Fed's accelerated tightening, the overall debt risk is controllable, but there are also some weak links that need attention. Specifically:</p><p><b>1) Residents: Healthy overall balance sheet; Middle-income people are more exposed.</b>Since 2022, U.S. household consumption has been quite resilient. Against the background that commodity consumption has begun to slow down, service consumption still maintains a relatively high growth rate. However, the current abundant excess savings (US $2.3 trillion) and resilient household consumption have deviated greatly from the consumer confidence that has continued to drop to a low point. For example, the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index was 50.2 in May, exceeding During the subprime mortgage crisis, it reached the level of the 1970s; The Conference Board's consumer confidence index was relatively higher at 106 in April, which may reflect the differentiation of people with different income levels.<b>A) High-income people have high asset growth and low leverage</b>。 As of the first quarter, the cash assets (savings and money funds) of the top 20% residents increased by 41.4% compared with the fourth quarter of 2019, while the liabilities/assets were the lowest among all people (3.8%).<b>b) High leverage among middle-income people</b>, the income quantile is between 20% and 80%, and the residents' liabilities/assets are close to 20%, but lower than the level of the subprime mortgage crisis.<b>c) The cash assets of low-income people have declined and their liabilities are not high</b>。 The main problem of people with income quantiles in the bottom 20% is that their assets are not high (cash assets fell by 1.2% month-on-month in the first quarter), and they are more susceptible to the squeeze of high inflation. However, what is relatively positive is that their liabilities are not high (15%), so they do not face a greater risk of default.</p><p>From the perspective of different types of liabilities on the resident side, the scale and proportion of student loans, auto loans and consumer credit have increased much more since the financial crisis than mortgage loans (as of the first quarter, mortgage loans/GDP was 50.2%, and consumer loans/GDP was 18.6%, but the improvement is faster), so it may be a weak link worthy of more attention.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d693ab3698ca973cf8f45563ae80d4e5\" tg-width=\"998\" tg-height=\"819\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d24c9810f3661b4b03b74bbad46e918b\" tg-width=\"994\" tg-height=\"401\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3eb51d83baa2cd64d0a29e0c03da4105\" tg-width=\"1004\" tg-height=\"820\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>2) Enterprise side: overall leverage improves and solvency improves; Focus on High Yield and Small Business Exposure</b>。 Although the U.S. corporate side has not experienced a substantial deleveraging process like the residential side, the leverage ratio of non-financial companies in the first quarter was 78%, and the net leverage ratio of S&P 500 non-financial companies was 74%, both higher than during the subprime mortgage crisis, but relative to the epidemic There is still improvement, and solvency has also been repaired (\"U.S. Stock Earnings Enter a Downward Channel\").</p><p>In \"Looking at the Weak Links under Tightening from the Turmoil of European and Japanese Bond Markets\", we pointed out that the credit spread in the United States has risen rapidly recently (high yield and investment grade are 5.3 ppt and 2.0 ppt respectively), the highest since 2015. Credit bonds, especially high-yield bonds, have significantly underperformed the Treasury Bond recently, accompanied by obvious capital outflows, so the potential risk exposure deserves attention. But what is relatively positive is that the maturity scale of U.S. high-yield bonds is only US $80 billion by the end of 2023, and the repayment pressure is not great.<b>In addition, small businesses in the United States are also worthy of attention due to high costs and tightening financial conditions.</b>We observe the short-term liquidity pressure and default risk of enterprises with current assets/short-term liabilities, and find that ~ 17% of listed companies in the United States are less than 1, with energy, raw materials, and consumer services accounting for the highest proportion; However, the market value accounts for only 0.6%, which indicates that the risk exposure is more dominated by small businesses and concentrated in sectors such as public utilities, finance and communications.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/789df80c100efce746b6f61d246b9607\" tg-width=\"998\" tg-height=\"404\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Market Dynamics: Powell emphasizes anti-inflation stance; Recession fears rise, as interest rates fall, bulk plummets, growth leads, and rate hike expectations fall</b></p><p><b>► Asset performance: Asset performance: stocks > bonds > bulk; Recession fears heat up, interest rates fall, bulk tumbles, growth leads the way</b></p><p><b>Market recession fears have heated up over the past week</b>, the performance is reflected in the 10-year US Treasury yields falling back to 3.1%, the bulk generally fell, and the growth style represented by FAAMNG and Nasdaq rebounded significantly. The decline in the initial value of Markit manufacturing PMI in the United States in June further reflected this situation. Market rate hike expectations fell, and the rate hike in September fell from 75bp to 50bp. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's hearing made it clear that a rate hike may lead to a recession, and it is challenging to achieve a soft landing, but the Fed will fight high inflation unconditionally. In order to reduce the pressure on oil prices, Biden expressed this week that he hopes to suspend the federal gasoline tax in the next three months. Brent crude oil prices once approached $107/barrel during the session, but supply and demand factors supported oil prices to close at $113/barrel this week.</p><p>Overall, under US dollar pricing, stocks > bonds > bulk; U.S. Chinese concept stocks, FAAMNG, Russian stock market, and Nasdaq led the gains; Wheat, natural gas, copper, soybeans and others led the decline. In terms of sectors, autos and parts, household goods, biotechnology, etc. in the S&P 500 led the gains, while only energy fell.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7793b1095eb898974815d115b18b5545\" tg-width=\"1005\" tg-height=\"471\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>► Liquidity: FRA-OIS Narrows, Credit Spreads Higher</b></p><p>In the past week, the FRA-OIS spread narrowed to 20bp, the 90-day commercial bill spread in the financial industry widened, and the non-financial industry narrowed. Credit spreads all widened, and three-month cross-swaps between euro, yen, pound and dollar all narrowed. The willingness to lend funds in the US repo market has increased. In addition, the use of reverse repurchases by major U.S. financial institutions on the Federal Reserve's account dropped slightly but remained at a high level of US $2.2 trillion.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/27b42fb05ab53b72567cc062011fc44b\" tg-width=\"997\" tg-height=\"764\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f03ee33446ac7eaac98e103647798bdf\" tg-width=\"999\" tg-height=\"407\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>► Emotional positions: Oversold in the US and Europe eased; U.S. stocks turn net short</b></p><p>In the past week, the VIX index has fallen as a whole, and the bearish/bullish ratio (10-day average) of US stocks has fallen. The oversold degree of European, American and emerging stock markets has eased. In terms of positions, speculative positions in U.S. stocks turned into net short positions, speculative net long positions in the U.S. dollar continued to increase, speculative net short positions in copper futures increased, net short positions in 10-year U.S. bonds increased, and net short positions in 2-year U.S. bonds decreased.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8c809e3bf63c5c634305510bc15ca24f\" tg-width=\"987\" tg-height=\"733\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/feb8364d0d2ce59fcb66c126a188f31b\" tg-width=\"986\" tg-height=\"377\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>► Fund flow: Bond outflows accelerate, U.S. stocks turn into outflows</b></p><p>In the past week, bond outflows have accelerated, stocks have turned to outflows, and money funds have turned to inflows. In terms of markets, the Japanese market has turned into inflows, Europe has accelerated outflows, and emerging markets and the United States have turned into outflows; South Korea and Vietnam recorded inflows, while India and China recorded significant outflows.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9aa57fb5504f4f9ecf1c1143c8737a58\" tg-width=\"992\" tg-height=\"756\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c7a5c011552507ab7f70bb132b98687a\" tg-width=\"982\" tg-height=\"402\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>► Fundamentals and policies: The initial PMI values of European and American manufacturing and service industries fell significantly</b></p><p><b>United States: The initial value of manufacturing PMI fell significantly in June, and demand weakened.</b>The Markit manufacturing PMI recorded 52.4 in June, lower than the previous value of 57 and the expected value of 56, a new low since July 2020. Against the background of high inflation and falling consumer confidence, weakening demand caused new PMI orders and output to fall sharply back to the contraction range in June, hitting a new low since June 2020. Supply deliveries improved slightly, and finished goods inventories rebounded, indicating a slight easing of supply pressure. The initial value of Markit services PMI in June was 51.6, lower than expectations (53.5) and the previous value (53.4), a five-month low.</p><p><b>Eurozone: The initial PMI value of manufacturing and service industries fell significantly in June.</b>The preliminary Markit manufacturing PMI value in June fell to 52, lower than expectations and previous values (53.8 and 54.6), the lowest level since August 2020. New orders, output and other sub-items have dropped significantly, and have fallen back to the contraction range. Under high inflation and geopolitical uncertainty, the economic growth and demand of the euro zone have weakened. Supply deliveries improved slightly, and finished goods inventories rebounded, indicating a slight easing of supply pressure. The preliminary value of the Services PMI fell to 52.8, which was lower than expectations and the previous values (54 and 54.8).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9147cb5405791940c42115acc3374dfd\" tg-width=\"1028\" tg-height=\"814\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>► Market valuation: still above reasonable levels for growth and liquidity</b></p><p><b>Still above reasonable levels of growth and liquidity.</b>The current dynamic P/E of the S&P 500 of 16.3 times is higher than the reasonable level that growth and liquidity can support (~ 15.1 times), and the valuation of U.S. stocks has fallen below the next standard deviation.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ab80789d31fe8c18bf2436ee0ecd8dfe\" tg-width=\"1005\" tg-height=\"767\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/08d11bae2d8a5ee7beb59f5929e0ba85\" tg-width=\"1010\" tg-height=\"409\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f6ec6e99c0c8b9feb7f296b78c65a54","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1122634027","content_text":"6月FOMC加息75bp后，衰退担忧明显升温。在当前快加息背景下美国经济后续陷入衰退也不算意外。那么，衰退风险对美股有何启示？有何经验值得借鉴？一、衰退风险多大？增长放缓是既定事实，衰退也有相当可能，但衰退到来时间和深度更重要美国增长和盈利已处于放缓通道，后续衰退也有相当可能性，骤然加息本身就会对需求带来较大冲击。给定放缓甚至衰退可能性，衰退到来时间和深度更加重要。1）对于衰退时间，我们测算金融条件收紧对增长压力可能在今年底和明年初出现，并没那么快。2）对于衰退深度，当前美国非政府部门相对较为健康的资产负债表表明至少不面临较大的债务危机风险。二、当前“正确”的问题？如果深度衰退概率不大，政策何时退坡才是对市场更有意义的问题若深度衰退概率较小且不会很快到来，对市场更有意义的问题不是是否会衰退，而是政策何时能退坡。从我们测算的通胀和紧缩路径看，可能对应在三季度后四季度初。此时，市场可以进入债券和成长的交易逻辑。2019年初和1994年都有相似之处。三、不同衰退程度下的市场冲击：轻度衰退平均跌幅~20%、估值在下方一倍标准差有支撑上世纪20年代以来美国经历15次衰退。我们以GDP回落幅度划分衰退程度。对比深度衰退（回调幅度超过3%）和轻度衰退，前者通常伴随资产负债表冲击（如2008年），故持续时间更长（平均13个月）；市场跌幅明显更大，时点上更突然；地产金融等对衰退程度更敏感、科技成长较小；前者估值拖累更大且没有支撑位，轻度衰退估值能在均值下方一倍标准差找到支撑。本轮市场从高点跌幅已与轻度衰退相当（标普500回撤24%，纳斯达克34%）；当前16.3倍动态估值距13倍支撑位还有15~20%，我们基于3.5%10年美债测算合理水平为14倍附近。四、是否存在债务风险？美国资产负债表的薄弱环节除政府部门外，美国金融和非金融企业与居民宏观杠杆水平都处于相对健康水平，远低于2008年金融危机，这也是我们判断当前发生债务危机式的深度衰退概率较低的主要依据之一。一些薄弱环节，如高收益债、中低收入人群消费贷款等值得关注。焦点讨论：美国经济的衰退风险 vs. 美国市场的熊市压力6月FOMC会议美联储“临时”加息75bp后（《6月FOMC：激进且前置的路径或是当前“最优解”》），市场交易逻辑迅速从高通胀和快紧缩向弱增长切换，衰退担忧明显升温。受此影响，10年美债利率从3.5%的高点一度回落3%附近。与此同时，上周金铜比走高、油价大跌、成长风格纳斯达克领涨可能也都与这一预期有关。短期来看，我们认为市场对衰退担忧的反应不排除有过度之嫌。但是，当前美国增长逐步放缓也是不争的事实，在当前快加息的背景下后续陷入衰退也不算意外。那么，衰退风险对美股和美联储政策有何启示？历史上有什么经验值得借鉴？我们将在本文中具体分析。一、衰退风险有多大？增长放缓是既定事实，衰退也有相当可能，但衰退到来时间和深度更重要在高基数、高成本、高库存、高利率和弱需求的共同作用下，美国增长和企业盈利已经处于放缓通道且仍将继续回落（《美股盈利进入下行通道》），这也是当前市场的普遍共识。沿着这个路径继续下去，衰退也有相当可能性。尽管美联储主席鲍威尔在FOMC会议后和上周国会听证会上都表示主动引导衰退并不是美联储主观意愿（表示经济衰退可能性存在，且软着陆非常具有挑战性），但快加息带来的金融条件快速收紧本身就会对需求带来较大冲击（30年和10年房贷利率的骤升已经给美国房地产需求带来了立竿见影的负面影响，房贷申请数和房屋销售都快速回落），同时货币骤然紧缩的余波也势必会逐步显现出来（正如美国前财长萨默斯在近期接受专访中有关水龙头水温延时变化的形象比喻）。给定增长放缓甚至衰退的可能性，衰退到来时间和深度更加重要，因为过快陷入衰退将使得美联储政策面临两难境地，市场也将承受估值和盈利的双重压力；而深度衰退则将对盈利造成更加剧烈且持久的冲击。1) 对于衰退时间，我们尝试通过金融条件的松紧（融资成本超过投资回报率的程度）来估算，其好处是相比经济指标本身具有领先性且能够“观察”美联储的意图，因为过高的利率和过紧的金融条件必然带来更大增长压力的同时、也意味着美联储想要通过抑制需求来实现控制通胀的目的（回顾历史，当金融条件转正后，美联储通常便停止加息，仅上世纪七十年代末例外）。我们采用3m10s利差以及企业实际融资成本（投资级债券收益率）与投资回报率（实际GDP增速）这两个维度分别测算，以当前美联储点阵图和CME利率期货隐含的加息步伐计（7~11月分别加息75bp、50bp和25bp），金融条件收紧对增长压力可能在今年底和明年初出现（对应3m10s在11月倒挂、以及融资成本明年初超出投资回报率250bp的历史经验阈值）（《如何理解金融条件收紧的机制与影响》）。此外，Conference Board经济领先指标虽然年初以来持续下滑但同比增速尚未转负，从与衰退的关系看也表明可能还有一段距离。2) 对于衰退深度，当前美国非政府部门相对较为健康的资产负债表状况表明至少不面临较大的债务危机风险，换言之，即便出现衰退，可能大概率也不会是类似于2008年金融危机似的深度衰退。二、当前“正确”的问题？如果深度衰退概率不大，政策何时退坡才是对市场更有意义的问题如果深度衰退概率较小且可能不会很快到来，那么对市场而言更有意义的问题不是是否会衰退、而是政策何时能够退坡。在增长放缓的过程中，如果美联储政策完成“任务”之后（如通胀出现拐点且联邦基金利率有效超过中性利率）可以退坡甚至转向的话，那么市场则可以进入增长放缓且政策宽松的交易逻辑，根据我们基于实际利率和通胀预期的“改进版”美林时钟，通胀对应债券资产和股市成长风格相对跑赢。从我们测算的通胀和紧缩路径看，这一时点可能对应在三季度之后，主要是考虑到9月开始美国通胀将再度迎来同比高基数，同时当前加息路径可能在9月之后逐步降速。实际上，2019年初的市场企稳就呈现出这一特点，市场见底的契机是2019年初鲍威尔传递鸽派信号，但真正降息则是发生在半年后的2019年7月、增长好转更是要到三季度。1994年格林斯潘时期与当前类似的快速加息并没有导致市场以“崩盘”收场，在一定程度上也同样得益于政策的及时“收手”。三、不同衰退程度下的市场冲击：轻度衰退平均跌幅~20%、估值在一倍标准差下方有支撑不同衰退对经济冲击程度和时间不同，自然对市场的影响也就不同。参照美国国家经济研究局（NBER）的定义，上世纪20年代末以来美国共经历15次衰退，持续时间中值~10.1个月，其中最长的是1929年开启的大萧条（44个月），最短的是2020年疫情（仅2个月）。我们以GDP从峰值回落幅度来定义衰退程度，经验值看回调幅度超过3%为深度衰退、小于3%为轻度衰退。基于这一定义，上世纪20年代末以来，深度衰退共计7次（1929~1933年、1937~1938年、1945年、1957~1958年、1973~1975年、2007~2009年、2020年），持续时间中值13.2个月；轻度衰退8次（1948~1949年、1953~1954年、1960~1961年、1969~1970年、1980年、1981~1982年、1990年~1991年、2001年），平均持续时间10个月。一般而言，较大程度的衰退通常会伴随资产负债表的危机，因此冲击更大修复也更慢更难（典型如2008年金融危机），而小幅的衰退对资产负债表的冲击相对有限、修复也更快。基于上述划分，我们发现市场和板块表现也存在“泾渭分明”的差异。1）整体表现：深度衰退期间，标普500最大回撤中值44%，远大于轻度衰退期的19%的回撤。2）时点上看：市场下跌起点在深度衰退期间与衰退期更为贴近（高点领先1.5个月），而轻度衰退时下跌开始的更早（市场高点领先衰退2.4个月）；但结束时间恰好相反，市场底部早于深度衰退结束6个月，市场见底早于轻度衰退5.1个月。3）行业表现：日常消费及防御板块衰退期间跌幅普遍都较小、符合防御性板块特征；但房地产、金融服务、媒体、公用事业、保险等板块跌幅在深度衰退更剧烈，意味着此类板块对衰退程度更加敏感，相比之下成长风格的科技板块敏感度较低。4）估值与盈利：受限于估值数据，我们观察上世纪50年代以来不同衰退期间，盈利的拖累程度大体相当（深度衰退中值为2.4% vs. 轻度衰退中值为4.3%），估值拖累差异则更为显著（深度衰退中值35% vs. 轻度衰退18%）。5）估值绝对水平：标普500指数在过去三十年间基本都在均值下方一倍标准差的维持能够得到支撑（对应12个月动态估值13倍左右，如1994年加息周期、2002年科技泡沫低点、2018年市场动荡和2020年疫情）；相比之下深度衰退则会“破位”，如2008年深度衰退除期间，估值最低跌至9倍。对比来看，本轮市场从高点的跌幅已经接近轻度衰退的平均值（标普500最大回撤24%，纳斯达克最大回撤34%），而当前16.3倍的动态估值距离轻度衰退的支撑位还有20.5%的下行空间，我们基于3.5%的10年美债利率与当前增长环境测算合理水平为14倍左右。四、是否存在债务风险？美国资产负债表的薄弱环节整体来看，除政府部门外，美国金融和非金融企业与居民部门宏观杠杆水平都处于相对健康水平，远低于2008年金融危机，因此这也是我们判断当前发生债务危机式的深度衰退概率较低的主要依据之一。得益于次贷危机后美国居民持续去杠杆，以及疫情后美国三轮共计6万亿美元财政刺激保护了居民和企业资产负债表，美国当前居民杠杆率处于较低水平（75.1%vs. 2019年四季度74.2%），企业杠杆率也接近疫情前水平（77.7% vs. 2019年四季度75.1%），这也是鲍威尔此前称美国经济能够抵御紧缩压力的主要原因。在美联储加速紧缩的过程中，整体债务风险可控，但中间也存在一些薄弱环节需要关注。具体来看：1) 居民：总体资产负债表健康；中等收入人群敞口更大。2022年以来美国居民消费一直呈现相当韧性，在商品消费已经开始放缓的背景下，服务消费仍保持较高增速。但当前仍充沛的超额储蓄（2.3万亿美元）、有韧性的居民消费，与已经持续下探到低点的消费者信心出现了较大背离，如密歇根大学消费者情绪指数5月50.2，超过次贷危机时期，达到了上世纪70年代水平；世界大型企业联合会（Conference Board）消费者信心指数4月为106相对更高，这背后可能体现出不同收入水平人群的分化。a）高收入人群资产增幅高，杠杆低。截至一季度，收入前20%居民现金类资产（储蓄和货币基金）较2019年四季度增长 41.4%，负债/资产则是所有人群中最低（3.8%）。b）中等收入人群高杠杆，收入分位在20%~80%居民负债/资产接近20%，但低于次贷危机水平。c）低收入人群现金资产下降但负债不高。收入分位在后20%的人群主要问题是资产不高（一季度现金类资产环比下降1.2%），更容易受高通胀的挤压，但相对积极的是其负债也不高（15%），因此不面临较大的违约风险。从居民端不同类别负债看，学生贷款、汽车贷款和消费信贷的规模和占比从金融危机以来提升幅度都要远高于房贷（截至一季度房贷/GDP为50.2%，消费贷/GDP为18.6%，但提升更快），因此可能是更值得关注的薄弱环节。2) 企业端：整体杠杆改善，偿付能力提升；关注高收益债和小企业敞口。虽然美国企业端并未像居民端经历大幅去杠杆过程，一季度非金融企业杠杆率为78%，标普500非金融企业净杠杆率74%，均高于次贷危机时期，但相对疫情以来仍有改善，且偿付能力也有所修复（《美股盈利进入下行通道》）。我们在《从欧日债市动荡看紧缩下的薄弱环节》中指出，美国信用利差近期快速上升（高收益和投资级分别为5.3ppt和2.0ppt），为2015年以来新高。信用债尤其是高收益债近期大幅跑输国债，并伴随明显的资金流出，因此潜在的风险敞口值得关注。但相对积极的是，美国高收益债到期规模截至2023年末只有800亿美元，偿付压力并不算大。此外，美国小企业受高成本和金融条件收紧也值得关注。我们以流动资产/短期负债观测企业短期流动性压力以及违约风险，发现在美国上市公司中~17%小于1，以能源、原材料、消费服务占比最高；不过市值占比只有0.6%，这表明风险敞口更多以小企业为主，且集中在公用事业、金融和通讯等板块。市场动态：鲍威尔强调抗通胀立场；衰退担忧升温，表现为利率回落、大宗大跌，成长领先，加息预期回落►资产表现：资产表现：股>债>大宗；衰退担忧升温，利率回落、大宗大跌，成长领先过去一周市场衰退担忧升温，表现体现为10年美债利率回落至3.1%、大宗普遍下跌，FAAMNG、纳斯达克为代表的成长风格反弹明显。美国6月Markit制造业PMI初值回落进一步反映这一情形，市场加息预期回落，9月加息幅度由75bp回落至50bp。美联储主席鲍威尔听证会明确表示加息或可能导致衰退，实现软着陆具有挑战性，但美联储将无条件抗击高通胀。为降低油价压力，拜登本周表示希望在未来三个月内暂停联邦汽油税，布伦特原油价格盘中一度逼近107美元/桶，但供需因素支撑油价本周收于113美元/桶。整体看，美元计价下，股>债>大宗；美国中概股、FAAMNG、俄罗斯股市、纳斯达克领涨；小麦、天然气、铜、大豆等领跌。板块方面，标普500中汽车与零部件、家庭用品、生物科技等领涨，仅能源下跌。►流动性：FRA-OIS收窄，信用利差走高过去一周，FRA-OIS利差收窄至20bp，90天金融行业商票利差走扩，非金融行业收窄。信用利差均走扩，欧元、日元、英镑与美元的3个月交叉互换均收窄。美国回购市场资金出借意愿增加。此外，美国主要金融机构在美联储账上逆回购使用量略回落但仍维持2.2万亿美元的高位。►情绪仓位：美欧超卖缓解；美股转为净空头过去一周，VIX指数整体回落，美股看空/看多比例（10天平均）回落。欧美及新兴股市超卖程度有所趋缓。仓位方面，美股投机性仓位转为净空头，美元投机性净多头仓位持续增加，铜期货投机性净空头仓位增加，10年美债净空头仓位增加，2年美债净空头仓位减少。►资金流向：债券加速流出，美股转为流出过去一周，债券加速流出，股票转为流出，货币基金转为流入。分市场看，日本市场转为流入，欧洲加速流出，新兴市场、美国转为流出；韩国、越南录得流入，印度、中国流出明显。►基本面与政策：欧美制造业与服务业PMI初值回落明显美国：6月制造业PMI初值回落明显，需求趋弱。6月Markit制造业PMI录得52.4，低于前值57和预期值56，创2020年7月以来新低。在通胀高企、消费者信心回落的背景下，需求趋弱导致6月PMI新订单、产出大幅回落至收缩区间，创2020年6月以来新低。供应交付小幅改善，产成品库存有所回升，表明供应压力略有缓解。6月Markit 服务业PMI初值为51.6，低于预期（53.5）和前值（53.4），为5个月以来新低。欧元区：6月制造业和服务业PMI初值回落明显。6月Markit制造业PMI初值降至52，低于预期和前值（53.8和54.6），为2020年8月以来的最低水平。新订单、产出等分项回落明显，且已回落至收缩区间，在高通胀及地缘政治不确定性下欧元区经济增长和需求趋弱。供应交付小幅改善，产成品库存有所回升，表明供应压力略有缓解。服务业PMI初值降至52.8，低于预期和前值（54和54.8）。►市场估值：仍然高于增长和流动性合理水平仍然高于增长和流动性合理水平。当前标普500的16.3倍动态P/E高于增长和流动性能够支撑的合理水平（~15.1倍），美股估值已低于向下一倍标准差。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":347,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9051381670,"gmtCreate":1654645696090,"gmtModify":1676535483102,"author":{"id":"3572683426659077","authorId":"3572683426659077","name":"haiwei183","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1cae291bddff5a30eeb96060074d8531","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3572683426659077","idStr":"3572683426659077"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"look","listText":"look","text":"look","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9051381670","repostId":"1199236151","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":483,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9027058811,"gmtCreate":1653954864033,"gmtModify":1676535367243,"author":{"id":"3572683426659077","authorId":"3572683426659077","name":"haiwei183","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1cae291bddff5a30eeb96060074d8531","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3572683426659077","idStr":"3572683426659077"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"look","listText":"look","text":"look","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9027058811","repostId":"2239966101","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":405,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9068072010,"gmtCreate":1651707932288,"gmtModify":1676534952211,"author":{"id":"3572683426659077","authorId":"3572683426659077","name":"haiwei183","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1cae291bddff5a30eeb96060074d8531","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3572683426659077","idStr":"3572683426659077"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"look","listText":"look","text":"look","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9068072010","repostId":"1119010842","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1119010842","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1651705757,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1119010842?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-05-05 07:09","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"The Federal Reserve rate hike 50 basis points as scheduled and announced that it would start shrinking balance sheet from June 1","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1119010842","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"摘要：美联储缩表并非主动抛售、而是减少到期本金再投资，计划最初每月最多减少300亿美元美国国债、175亿美元机构债，三个月后月度缩减上限均提升一倍。相比上次声明，本次联储强调俄乌冲突对通胀施加上行压力","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Abstract: The Federal Reserve's shrinking balance sheet does not actively sell, but reduces the reinvestment of maturing principal. It plans to initially reduce U.S. Treasury Bond by up to 30 billion U.S. dollars and institutional bonds by 17.5 billion U.S. dollars per month. After three months, the monthly reduction ceiling will double. Compared with the last statement, this time the Federal Reserve emphasized that the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has put upward pressure on inflation, and newly pointed out that the epidemic in China may affect the supply chain, and the Federal Reserve is highly concerned about inflation risks. In order to curb the high domestic inflation in the United States, the Federal Reserve finally took more aggressive monetary tightening action, not only sharply rate hike, but also announced a plan to reduce the size of the balance sheet (shrinking balance sheet) that began in the middle of the year, moving towards a shrinking balance sheet within one year. Trillions of dollars.</p><p>On Wednesday, May 4, Eastern Time, the Federal Reserve announced after the meeting that members of the Monetary Policy Committee FOMC unanimously voted to raise the target range of the policy rate Federal Funds rate from 0.25% to 0.50% to 0.75% to 1.00%. This is the first time since May 2000 that the Federal Reserve has issued a 50 basis point rate hike, and the first time since 2006 that it has held two consecutive rate hike meetings.</p><p>The extent of this rate hike is twice that of the last rate hike in March this year, which is in line with market consensus expectations. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell made it clear in late April that the May meeting would discuss rate hike by 50 basis points. At that time, the Wall Street Journal commented that Powell's speech kept the market's expectation of a 50 basis point rate hike in May unchanged, and he also hinted at the possibility of a rate hike of the same magnitude in the future.</p><p>In March this year, the Federal Reserve announced its first rate hike since December 2018, starting the process of multiple rate hike this year, and hinted in its post-meeting statement that it would start announcing the launch of shrinking balance sheet as soon as May. After the meeting on Wednesday, the Federal Reserve indeed announced that it will start shrinking balance sheet next month, that is, June, and initially reduce its bond holdings by up to $47.5 billion per month, and double the upper limit three months later.</p><p>Compared with the March meeting, the statement after the meeting emphasized that the Russia-Ukraine conflict exerted upward pressure on inflation, believed that it might affect economic activities, and newly mentioned the impact of the Chinese epidemic on the supply chain.</p><p>Interest Rate Guidance Reaffirms Continued rate hike in the Future</p><p>In this week's resolution statement, in terms of interest rate decisions, the Federal Reserve reiterated that the FOMC seeks to achieve the dual goals of full employment and long-term inflation of 2%, and after announcing the rate hike, it reiterated its position after the rate hike in March:</p><p>\"With a suitably firm (tightening) stance on monetary policy, the (FOMC) committee expects inflation to return to the long-term inflation target of 2% and the labor market to remain strong.\" After expressing support for the above dual target rate hike of 50 basis points, the Fed also reiterated its statement in March:</p><p>(FOMC) \"The committee expects that it will be appropriate to raise the target interest rate range for a long time.\" shrinking balance sheet's route: initially reduce Treasury Bond by up to $30 billion per month, and double institutional debt by $17.5 billion in three months</p><p>A statement after the Federal Reserve meeting this week said,</p><p>The FOMC Committee decided to reduce its positions in U.S. Treasury Bond, securities, agency bonds and agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS) starting from June 1. At the March meeting, Fed policymakers reconfirmed after December last year that shrinking balance sheet should reduce its holdings of securities over time in a predictable way, mainly by adjusting the amount of principal received from securities held in the Reinvestment System Open Market Account (SOMA). In other words, the main shrinking balance sheet preferred by the Federal Reserve is not to actively sell bonds.</p><p>According to the minutes of the meeting released last month, at the March meeting, the participating Fed policymakers agreed that it may be appropriate to set a monthly shrinking balance sheet cap of about $60 billion in U.S. Treasury Bond and about $35 billion in institutional MBS. If market conditions are guaranteed, the cap may be achieved in phases within three months or longer.</p><p>The shrinking balance sheet Action Plan announced by the Federal Reserve on Wednesday showed that the Federal Reserve did as expected.<b>Instead of selling, shrinking balance sheet by adjusting the reinvestment size of maturing principal of securities held by SOMA</b>。 The plan to reduce the monthly reinvestment is as follows:</p><p>For<b>The U.S. Treasury Bond, initially set to shrink by up to $30 billion per month, three months later</b>, monthly reduction of scale upper limit<b>Rising to $60 billion</b>。 For<b>Institutional Bonds and Institutional MBS</b>，<b>Initially set for a monthly reduction of up to $17.5 billion, three months later</b>, monthly reduction of upper limit<b>Rising to $35 billion</b>。 The Federal Reserve did not announce how the shrinking balance sheet will be conducted next year, six months after the shrinking balance sheet was launched in June. Instead, it said that the FOMC committee intends to keep the size of securities positions at the level required for efficient and effective monetary policy implementation.</p><p><ul><li>To ensure a smooth transition, the FOMC deliberately moves slowly, and then stops the shrinking balance sheet when the reserve balance exceeds the level it judges to be sufficient reserves to a certain extent.</li><li>After the shrinking balance sheet stops, the reserve balance may continue to decline for some time until the FOMC determines that the reserve balance has reached an adequate level. The decline in reserve balances reflects growth in other Fed liabilities.</li><li>Therefore, the FOMC will manage securities positions in order to maintain sufficient reserves over time.</li></ul>At the end of the shrinking balance sheet plan, the Federal Reserve said that the FOMC is ready to adjust the details of all shrinking balance sheet methods according to changes in the economic and financial situation.</p><p>Emphasizing that the conflict between Russia and Ukraine puts pressure on inflation, the Federal Reserve pays close attention to inflation risks and the impact of the new epidemic in China</p><p>In commenting on the economy, this meeting stated<b>Reaffirm</b>The impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict first mentioned in the March statement: Russia's actions against Ukraine \"caused huge\" economic difficulties, \"<b>There is a high level of uncertainty about the impact on the U.S. economy</b>\", the difference is that it was stated in March that\" in the near future, the invasion and related events may create new upward pressure on inflation and may also put pressure on economic activity \", but this time\" in the near future \"was deleted and changed to:</p><p><b>\"The invasion and related events are creating new upward pressure on inflation and may also put pressure on economic activity.\"</b>Moreover, this statement mentioned the impact of the epidemic in China for the first time.<b>Said the epidemic in China \"may intensify supply chain disruption.\"</b></p><p>This statement also adds a sentence:</p><p>The (FOMC) committee is highly concerned about inflation risks. Reiterating that high inflation reflects rising energy prices, strong employment growth, and unemployment drops significantly</p><p>In terms of economic-related evaluations, this statement reiterated the statement in March: \"Inflation remains high, reflecting the epidemic-related supply and demand imbalance, rising energy prices and wider price pressures.\"</p><p>This statement reiterated the \"strong employment growth in recent months\" in the March statement and continued to reiterate that \"the unemployment rate has dropped significantly\", but deleted the \"indicators of economic activity and employment continue to be strong\" reiterated in the March statement and renamed it:</p><p>\"While economic activity generally slowed in the first quarter, household spending and corporate fixed investment remained strong.\"</body></html></p>","source":"highlight_wallstreetcn","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The Federal Reserve rate hike 50 basis points as scheduled and announced that it would start shrinking balance sheet from June 1</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe Federal Reserve rate hike 50 basis points as scheduled and announced that it would start shrinking balance sheet from June 1\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-05-05 07:09</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Abstract: The Federal Reserve's shrinking balance sheet does not actively sell, but reduces the reinvestment of maturing principal. It plans to initially reduce U.S. Treasury Bond by up to 30 billion U.S. dollars and institutional bonds by 17.5 billion U.S. dollars per month. After three months, the monthly reduction ceiling will double. Compared with the last statement, this time the Federal Reserve emphasized that the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has put upward pressure on inflation, and newly pointed out that the epidemic in China may affect the supply chain, and the Federal Reserve is highly concerned about inflation risks. In order to curb the high domestic inflation in the United States, the Federal Reserve finally took more aggressive monetary tightening action, not only sharply rate hike, but also announced a plan to reduce the size of the balance sheet (shrinking balance sheet) that began in the middle of the year, moving towards a shrinking balance sheet within one year. Trillions of dollars.</p><p>On Wednesday, May 4, Eastern Time, the Federal Reserve announced after the meeting that members of the Monetary Policy Committee FOMC unanimously voted to raise the target range of the policy rate Federal Funds rate from 0.25% to 0.50% to 0.75% to 1.00%. This is the first time since May 2000 that the Federal Reserve has issued a 50 basis point rate hike, and the first time since 2006 that it has held two consecutive rate hike meetings.</p><p>The extent of this rate hike is twice that of the last rate hike in March this year, which is in line with market consensus expectations. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell made it clear in late April that the May meeting would discuss rate hike by 50 basis points. At that time, the Wall Street Journal commented that Powell's speech kept the market's expectation of a 50 basis point rate hike in May unchanged, and he also hinted at the possibility of a rate hike of the same magnitude in the future.</p><p>In March this year, the Federal Reserve announced its first rate hike since December 2018, starting the process of multiple rate hike this year, and hinted in its post-meeting statement that it would start announcing the launch of shrinking balance sheet as soon as May. After the meeting on Wednesday, the Federal Reserve indeed announced that it will start shrinking balance sheet next month, that is, June, and initially reduce its bond holdings by up to $47.5 billion per month, and double the upper limit three months later.</p><p>Compared with the March meeting, the statement after the meeting emphasized that the Russia-Ukraine conflict exerted upward pressure on inflation, believed that it might affect economic activities, and newly mentioned the impact of the Chinese epidemic on the supply chain.</p><p>Interest Rate Guidance Reaffirms Continued rate hike in the Future</p><p>In this week's resolution statement, in terms of interest rate decisions, the Federal Reserve reiterated that the FOMC seeks to achieve the dual goals of full employment and long-term inflation of 2%, and after announcing the rate hike, it reiterated its position after the rate hike in March:</p><p>\"With a suitably firm (tightening) stance on monetary policy, the (FOMC) committee expects inflation to return to the long-term inflation target of 2% and the labor market to remain strong.\" After expressing support for the above dual target rate hike of 50 basis points, the Fed also reiterated its statement in March:</p><p>(FOMC) \"The committee expects that it will be appropriate to raise the target interest rate range for a long time.\" shrinking balance sheet's route: initially reduce Treasury Bond by up to $30 billion per month, and double institutional debt by $17.5 billion in three months</p><p>A statement after the Federal Reserve meeting this week said,</p><p>The FOMC Committee decided to reduce its positions in U.S. Treasury Bond, securities, agency bonds and agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS) starting from June 1. At the March meeting, Fed policymakers reconfirmed after December last year that shrinking balance sheet should reduce its holdings of securities over time in a predictable way, mainly by adjusting the amount of principal received from securities held in the Reinvestment System Open Market Account (SOMA). In other words, the main shrinking balance sheet preferred by the Federal Reserve is not to actively sell bonds.</p><p>According to the minutes of the meeting released last month, at the March meeting, the participating Fed policymakers agreed that it may be appropriate to set a monthly shrinking balance sheet cap of about $60 billion in U.S. Treasury Bond and about $35 billion in institutional MBS. If market conditions are guaranteed, the cap may be achieved in phases within three months or longer.</p><p>The shrinking balance sheet Action Plan announced by the Federal Reserve on Wednesday showed that the Federal Reserve did as expected.<b>Instead of selling, shrinking balance sheet by adjusting the reinvestment size of maturing principal of securities held by SOMA</b>。 The plan to reduce the monthly reinvestment is as follows:</p><p>For<b>The U.S. Treasury Bond, initially set to shrink by up to $30 billion per month, three months later</b>, monthly reduction of scale upper limit<b>Rising to $60 billion</b>。 For<b>Institutional Bonds and Institutional MBS</b>，<b>Initially set for a monthly reduction of up to $17.5 billion, three months later</b>, monthly reduction of upper limit<b>Rising to $35 billion</b>。 The Federal Reserve did not announce how the shrinking balance sheet will be conducted next year, six months after the shrinking balance sheet was launched in June. Instead, it said that the FOMC committee intends to keep the size of securities positions at the level required for efficient and effective monetary policy implementation.</p><p><ul><li>To ensure a smooth transition, the FOMC deliberately moves slowly, and then stops the shrinking balance sheet when the reserve balance exceeds the level it judges to be sufficient reserves to a certain extent.</li><li>After the shrinking balance sheet stops, the reserve balance may continue to decline for some time until the FOMC determines that the reserve balance has reached an adequate level. The decline in reserve balances reflects growth in other Fed liabilities.</li><li>Therefore, the FOMC will manage securities positions in order to maintain sufficient reserves over time.</li></ul>At the end of the shrinking balance sheet plan, the Federal Reserve said that the FOMC is ready to adjust the details of all shrinking balance sheet methods according to changes in the economic and financial situation.</p><p>Emphasizing that the conflict between Russia and Ukraine puts pressure on inflation, the Federal Reserve pays close attention to inflation risks and the impact of the new epidemic in China</p><p>In commenting on the economy, this meeting stated<b>Reaffirm</b>The impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict first mentioned in the March statement: Russia's actions against Ukraine \"caused huge\" economic difficulties, \"<b>There is a high level of uncertainty about the impact on the U.S. economy</b>\", the difference is that it was stated in March that\" in the near future, the invasion and related events may create new upward pressure on inflation and may also put pressure on economic activity \", but this time\" in the near future \"was deleted and changed to:</p><p><b>\"The invasion and related events are creating new upward pressure on inflation and may also put pressure on economic activity.\"</b>Moreover, this statement mentioned the impact of the epidemic in China for the first time.<b>Said the epidemic in China \"may intensify supply chain disruption.\"</b></p><p>This statement also adds a sentence:</p><p>The (FOMC) committee is highly concerned about inflation risks. Reiterating that high inflation reflects rising energy prices, strong employment growth, and unemployment drops significantly</p><p>In terms of economic-related evaluations, this statement reiterated the statement in March: \"Inflation remains high, reflecting the epidemic-related supply and demand imbalance, rising energy prices and wider price pressures.\"</p><p>This statement reiterated the \"strong employment growth in recent months\" in the March statement and continued to reiterate that \"the unemployment rate has dropped significantly\", but deleted the \"indicators of economic activity and employment continue to be strong\" reiterated in the March statement and renamed it:</p><p>\"While economic activity generally slowed in the first quarter, household spending and corporate fixed investment remained strong.\"</body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3658508\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af1d75a2b7a7bd95e0102711f4f871de","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3658508","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/cc96873d3d23ee6ac10685520df9c100","article_id":"1119010842","content_text":"摘要：美联储缩表并非主动抛售、而是减少到期本金再投资，计划最初每月最多减少300亿美元美国国债、175亿美元机构债，三个月后月度缩减上限均提升一倍。相比上次声明，本次联储强调俄乌冲突对通胀施加上行压力，新增指出中国疫情可能影响供应链、联储高度关注通胀风险。为遏制居高不下的美国国内通胀，美联储终于采取更加激进的收紧货币行动，不但大幅加息，而且宣布始于年中的缩减资产负债表规模（缩表）的计划，向一年内缩表上万亿美元迈进。美东时间5月4日周三，美联储会后宣布，货币政策委员会FOMC的委员一致投票同意，将政策利率联邦基金利率的目标区间从0.25%到0.50%上调至0.75%至1.00%。这是美联储2000年5月以来首度一次加息50个基点，也是2006年以来首次连续两次会议加息。本次加息幅度为今年3月上次加息的两倍，符合市场共识预期。美联储主席鲍威尔4月下旬已明确表示，5月会议要讨论加息50个基点。当时华尔街日报点评称，鲍威尔的讲话令市场对5月加息50个基点的预期保持不变，他还暗示了未来同等幅度加息的可能。今年3月美联储宣布2018年12月以来首次加息，启动今年将多次加息的进程，并在会后声明中暗示最快5月就开始公布启动缩表。本周三会后，美联储果然公布：从下个月、即6月开始缩表，最初最多每月缩减所持债券475亿美元，三个月后上限提高一倍。相比3月会议，本次会后声明强调了俄乌冲突对通胀施加上行压力，认为可能影响经济活动，并新增提到中国疫情对供应链的影响。利率指引重申未来继续加息本周决议声明中，在利率决策方面，美联储重申FOMC寻求实现充分就业和长期通胀达到2%的双重目标，并在宣布将加息后重申了3月加息后的表态：“伴随适宜地坚定（收紧）货币政策的立场，（FOMC）委员会预计，通胀将回到2%的长期通胀目标，且劳动力市场将保持强劲。”在表示为支持以上双重目标加息50个基点后，联储还重申3月的表述：（FOMC）“委员会预期，将上调目标利率区间持续下去会是适合的。”缩表路线：最初每月最多减少300亿美元国债、175亿美元机构债 三个月后提升一倍本周美联储会后声明称，FOMC委员会决定，从6月1日开始，削减对美国国债、证券、机构债券和机构抵押支持证券（MBS）的持仓。3月会上，美联储决策者继去年12月后再次确认，缩表应以可预见的方式随着时间推移减少持有证券，主要方式是，调整再投资系统公开市场账户（SOMA）所持证券收到本金款项的金额。也就是说，美联储属意的主要缩表方式并非主动抛售债券。上月公布的会议纪要显示，3月会上， 与会联储决策者一致认为，可能适合每月设置约600亿美元美国国债和约350亿美元机构MBS的缩表上限，若市场条件有保障，可能要在三个月内、或者更久一点的期间内分阶段实现上限。本周三美联储公布的缩表行动计划显示，美联储的确如预期，并未选择抛售、而是通过调整SOMA所持证券的到期本金再投资规模进行缩表。每月减少再投资的计划如下：对于美国国债，最初设定每月最多缩减300亿美元，三个月后，每月缩减规模上限提升到600亿美元。对于机构债券和机构MBS，最初设定每月最多缩减175亿美元，三个月后，每月缩减上限提升到350亿美元。美联储并未公布6月启动缩表六个月后、即明年缩表要怎样进行，而是说，FOMC委员会有意将证券持仓的规模保持在高效及有效推行货币政策所需的水平。为保证顺畅过渡，FOMC有意缓慢行动，然后，当准备金余额一定程度上超过其判定符合充裕储备的水平时，就停止缩表。缩表停止后，准备金余额可能继续下降一段时间，直到FOMC判定准备金余额达到充裕水平为止。准备金余额的下降反映出其他美联储负债的增长。因此，FOMC将为了随着时间推移保持充裕储备所需而管理证券持仓。在缩表计划末尾，美联储称，FOMC准备根据经济和金融形势变化调整一切缩表方式的细节。强调俄乌冲突对通胀施压、联储高度关注通胀风险 新增中国疫情影响在评论经济时，本次会议声明重申了3月声明首次提到的俄乌冲突的影响表述：俄罗斯对乌克兰的行动“造成巨大的”经济困难，“美国经济经济所受到影响有很高的不确定性”，不同之处是，3月称“近期内，侵袭及相关事件可能对通胀制造了新的上行压力，可能也给经济活动施压”，而本次删掉了“近期内”改为：“侵袭及相关事件正在对通胀制造新的上行压力，可能也给经济活动施压。”而且，本次声明首次提到中国疫情的影响，称中国疫情“可能激化供应链干扰。”本次声明还追加了一句：（FOMC）委员会高度关注通胀风险。重申通胀高企体现能源涨价  就业强劲增长 失业明显下降在经济相关评价方面，本次声明重申3月的说法：“通胀仍高企，反映了疫情相关的供需失衡、能源价格上涨和更大范围的价格压力。”本次声明重申了3月声明中的”近几个月就业增长强劲“，继续重申“失业率明显下降”，但删除了3月声明重申的“经济活动和就业的指标继续强劲”，改称：“虽然一季度经济活动总体放缓，但家庭支出和企业固定投资仍强劲。”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0,".DJI":0,".SPX":0}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":543,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9037087140,"gmtCreate":1647993275643,"gmtModify":1676534289418,"author":{"id":"3572683426659077","authorId":"3572683426659077","name":"haiwei183","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1cae291bddff5a30eeb96060074d8531","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3572683426659077","idStr":"3572683426659077"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"look","listText":"look","text":"look","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9037087140","repostId":"2221091549","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2221091549","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1647987950,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2221091549?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-03-23 06:25","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Hawkish Fed officials are out in force, and U.S. debt hits worst quarterly performance in nearly 40 years","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2221091549","media":"金十数据","summary":"当前货币市场预计，到2022年底，美联储可能再进行8次25个基点的加息，下次会议加息50个基点的可能性超过四分之三。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Other Fed officials responded after Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell hinted in a speech on Monday that the FOMC could decide 50 basis points on rate hike at its next policy meeting if necessary.</p><p><b>Mester: 50 basis point option for rate hike should not be ruled out</b></p><p>In the early morning of Wednesday, Beijing time, the 2022 FOMC voting committee and Cleveland Fed President Mester delivered a speech on the U.S. economic outlook and monetary policy. She said,<b>Doesn't think rate hike's 50 basis point option should be ruled out</b>，<b>Leaning to raise interest rates to 2.5% by the end of 2022</b>，<b>That is, it supports the Fed to conduct about 9.6 standard 25 basis point rate hike throughout the year, while expecting further rate hike above the neutral level in 2023</b>。 Meister says:</p><p>\"Based on my forecasts, I think at some meetings we will need 50 basis points of rate hike.\" The risk of too high inflation will be entrenched in economic development, long-term inflation expectations remain stable, and the best policy can do is restore price stability, Meister said. She pointed out that the upside risks to inflation brought by the conflict in Ukraine are greater than the downside risks to U.S. economic growth. The basic scenario is that the economy will grow at an above-trend rate and maintain healthy job growth. The Federal Reserve needs to synchronize policies with the current economy and need to take Action to reduce excess demand.</p><p>Mester expects inflation to fall this year, but not return to 2%. She said:</p><p>\"We do need to keep inflation under control. It's important to use our two tools (rate hike and shrinking balance sheet) to get inflation on a better trajectory. shrinking balance sheet won't be the main tool to fight inflation, but we will'do what we can 'to lower inflation.\"<b>Daly: Time for the Fed to raise interest rates to neutral levels</b></p><p>U.S. Treasury Bond yields surged following Fed Chair Jerome Powell's speech as investors upped their bets on the number of rate hike the Fed will make in 2022, with even doves like San Francisco Fed President Daly now supporting strong action.</p><p>Speaking at an event Tuesday, Daly said:</p><p>\"The Fed may consider tightening to contractionary (monetary) policy. It's time for the Fed to raise interest rates to a neutral level.\" Daly said the Fed needs to tighten policy given high inflation and a strong U.S. economy. Inflation is too high, and this combined with two supply chain shocks has pushed it up even more, she said. As the Russia-Ukraine conflict develops, uncertainty is also a problem. She expects policy adjustments from the Federal Reserve and other factors to lower inflation, but doesn't expect it to fall to 2% by the end of the year.</p><p><b>Bullard: A 50 basis point rate hike is sure to come</b></p><p>St. Louis Fed President and 2022 FOMC voting member Bullard also reiterated in an interview on Tuesday night that the Fed needs to take aggressive action to curb inflation, needs to make policy neutral, and<b>\"The sooner the better\"</b>。 Brad says:</p><p>\"I think a 50 basis point rate hike is definitely coming.\" When asked how quickly the Fed should move, Bullard said \"the sooner the better,\" adding that \"the 1994 tightening cycle or the uneasing cycle is probably the best analogy.\"</p><p>From 1994 to early 1995, the Federal Reserve under Alan Greenspan raised interest rates from 3% to 6%, achieving a \"soft landing\" for the economy, inflation was brought under control, and the economy continued to grow strongly, achieving the longest 10-year expansion ever.</p><p>Brad says:</p><p>\"History tells us that the faster we pivot to this scenario, the more likely we are to push inflation back to target levels and allow the U.S. economy to thrive.\" Bullard also believes the Fed should start a shrinking balance sheet because the central bank has allowed its balance sheet to expand for too long. He expressed<b>There's no reason not to start shrinking balance sheet right away</b>He hopes that the Federal Reserve will adopt moderate restrictive policies this year and cannot wait for geopolitical tensions to ease.</p><p>Brad still thinks<b>The Fed can achieve a soft landing</b>。 He said the real economy is doing very well, and this is the best job market in several years.</p><p>Earlier, Bullard expressed support for raising interest rates above 3% this year, a more aggressive forecast than any other colleague.</p><p>Robert Dent, U.S. economist at Nomura, said:</p><p>\"Powell's remarks on Monday were aimed at pushing the Fed for a 50 basis point rate hike at its May meeting. Officials are now showing an increasingly urgent need not only to control inflation, but also to cool the labor market to prevent a wage-price spiral.\"<b>U.S. bond market sells off</b></p><p>Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's hawkish rhetoric on FOMC rate hike outlook this week<b>The current money market predicts that by the end of 2022, the Federal Reserve may conduct eight more 25 basis point rate hike, and the probability of a 50 basis point rate hike at the next meeting is more than three-quarters.</b></p><p>At the same time, Powell's speech also forced investors to sell U.S. debt. U.S. Treasury Bond sold off across the board on Tuesday, continuing the previous day's trend,<b>Short-term bonds set for worst quarterly performance in nearly 40 years</b>。</p><p>10-year U.S. Treasury yields led gains on Tuesday, climbing nearly 10 basis points at one point. The 2-year Treasury Bond yield, which is closely related to policy expectations, once rose by about 7 percentage points to 2.18%, expanding its increase since 2021 to 145 basis points, and is expected to achieve its<b>Largest quarterly increase since 1984</b>, that year the Federal Reserve gradually tightened policy by 50 basis points or more.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b6da22132e4fea48c8c39a59be9a54ad\" tg-width=\"1200\" tg-height=\"675\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>The gap between 5-year and 30-year U.S. Treasury yields has further narrowed to its smallest level since 2007,<b>This suggests that tightening policy will slow down economic growth or even lead to recession</b>。 This has prompted investors to question the bond's ability to provide protection in such a situation.</p><p>\"I'm not saying that bonds don't provide a buffer if we face recession risks\",<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>Christian Mueller-Glissmann, managing director of international portfolio strategy and asset allocation, said, \"But you also have to be careful about how much buffer assets, such as safe assets, can provide relative to your cost at risk.\"</p><p>From a broader perspective,<b>U.S. Treasury Bond is facing its worst quarterly drop since at least 1973</b>。 As of Monday's close, the Bloomberg U.S. Treasury Bond Index had fallen 5.55% since Dec. 31 last year, surpassing the 5.45% drop in early 1980 and the biggest quarterly drop since the indicator was launched.</p><p>In addition, the yield on the 10-year U.S. municipal bond (AAA rating) rose 12 basis points on Tuesday, the largest intraday increase since April 2020, to 2.06%, and the yield on the 30-year U.S. municipal bond rose 11 basis points to 2.44%.%. Bloomberg data shows that U.S. municipal bonds (prices) have fallen about 5% so far in 2022,<b>May hit the worst single-quarter performance since 1994</b>。</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"xnew_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Hawkish Fed officials are out in force, and U.S. debt hits worst quarterly performance in nearly 40 years</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHawkish Fed officials are out in force, and U.S. debt hits worst quarterly performance in nearly 40 years\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">金十数据</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-03-23 06:25</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Other Fed officials responded after Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell hinted in a speech on Monday that the FOMC could decide 50 basis points on rate hike at its next policy meeting if necessary.</p><p><b>Mester: 50 basis point option for rate hike should not be ruled out</b></p><p>In the early morning of Wednesday, Beijing time, the 2022 FOMC voting committee and Cleveland Fed President Mester delivered a speech on the U.S. economic outlook and monetary policy. She said,<b>Doesn't think rate hike's 50 basis point option should be ruled out</b>，<b>Leaning to raise interest rates to 2.5% by the end of 2022</b>，<b>That is, it supports the Fed to conduct about 9.6 standard 25 basis point rate hike throughout the year, while expecting further rate hike above the neutral level in 2023</b>。 Meister says:</p><p>\"Based on my forecasts, I think at some meetings we will need 50 basis points of rate hike.\" The risk of too high inflation will be entrenched in economic development, long-term inflation expectations remain stable, and the best policy can do is restore price stability, Meister said. She pointed out that the upside risks to inflation brought by the conflict in Ukraine are greater than the downside risks to U.S. economic growth. The basic scenario is that the economy will grow at an above-trend rate and maintain healthy job growth. The Federal Reserve needs to synchronize policies with the current economy and need to take Action to reduce excess demand.</p><p>Mester expects inflation to fall this year, but not return to 2%. She said:</p><p>\"We do need to keep inflation under control. It's important to use our two tools (rate hike and shrinking balance sheet) to get inflation on a better trajectory. shrinking balance sheet won't be the main tool to fight inflation, but we will'do what we can 'to lower inflation.\"<b>Daly: Time for the Fed to raise interest rates to neutral levels</b></p><p>U.S. Treasury Bond yields surged following Fed Chair Jerome Powell's speech as investors upped their bets on the number of rate hike the Fed will make in 2022, with even doves like San Francisco Fed President Daly now supporting strong action.</p><p>Speaking at an event Tuesday, Daly said:</p><p>\"The Fed may consider tightening to contractionary (monetary) policy. It's time for the Fed to raise interest rates to a neutral level.\" Daly said the Fed needs to tighten policy given high inflation and a strong U.S. economy. Inflation is too high, and this combined with two supply chain shocks has pushed it up even more, she said. As the Russia-Ukraine conflict develops, uncertainty is also a problem. She expects policy adjustments from the Federal Reserve and other factors to lower inflation, but doesn't expect it to fall to 2% by the end of the year.</p><p><b>Bullard: A 50 basis point rate hike is sure to come</b></p><p>St. Louis Fed President and 2022 FOMC voting member Bullard also reiterated in an interview on Tuesday night that the Fed needs to take aggressive action to curb inflation, needs to make policy neutral, and<b>\"The sooner the better\"</b>。 Brad says:</p><p>\"I think a 50 basis point rate hike is definitely coming.\" When asked how quickly the Fed should move, Bullard said \"the sooner the better,\" adding that \"the 1994 tightening cycle or the uneasing cycle is probably the best analogy.\"</p><p>From 1994 to early 1995, the Federal Reserve under Alan Greenspan raised interest rates from 3% to 6%, achieving a \"soft landing\" for the economy, inflation was brought under control, and the economy continued to grow strongly, achieving the longest 10-year expansion ever.</p><p>Brad says:</p><p>\"History tells us that the faster we pivot to this scenario, the more likely we are to push inflation back to target levels and allow the U.S. economy to thrive.\" Bullard also believes the Fed should start a shrinking balance sheet because the central bank has allowed its balance sheet to expand for too long. He expressed<b>There's no reason not to start shrinking balance sheet right away</b>He hopes that the Federal Reserve will adopt moderate restrictive policies this year and cannot wait for geopolitical tensions to ease.</p><p>Brad still thinks<b>The Fed can achieve a soft landing</b>。 He said the real economy is doing very well, and this is the best job market in several years.</p><p>Earlier, Bullard expressed support for raising interest rates above 3% this year, a more aggressive forecast than any other colleague.</p><p>Robert Dent, U.S. economist at Nomura, said:</p><p>\"Powell's remarks on Monday were aimed at pushing the Fed for a 50 basis point rate hike at its May meeting. Officials are now showing an increasingly urgent need not only to control inflation, but also to cool the labor market to prevent a wage-price spiral.\"<b>U.S. bond market sells off</b></p><p>Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's hawkish rhetoric on FOMC rate hike outlook this week<b>The current money market predicts that by the end of 2022, the Federal Reserve may conduct eight more 25 basis point rate hike, and the probability of a 50 basis point rate hike at the next meeting is more than three-quarters.</b></p><p>At the same time, Powell's speech also forced investors to sell U.S. debt. U.S. Treasury Bond sold off across the board on Tuesday, continuing the previous day's trend,<b>Short-term bonds set for worst quarterly performance in nearly 40 years</b>。</p><p>10-year U.S. Treasury yields led gains on Tuesday, climbing nearly 10 basis points at one point. The 2-year Treasury Bond yield, which is closely related to policy expectations, once rose by about 7 percentage points to 2.18%, expanding its increase since 2021 to 145 basis points, and is expected to achieve its<b>Largest quarterly increase since 1984</b>, that year the Federal Reserve gradually tightened policy by 50 basis points or more.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b6da22132e4fea48c8c39a59be9a54ad\" tg-width=\"1200\" tg-height=\"675\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>The gap between 5-year and 30-year U.S. Treasury yields has further narrowed to its smallest level since 2007,<b>This suggests that tightening policy will slow down economic growth or even lead to recession</b>。 This has prompted investors to question the bond's ability to provide protection in such a situation.</p><p>\"I'm not saying that bonds don't provide a buffer if we face recession risks\",<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>Christian Mueller-Glissmann, managing director of international portfolio strategy and asset allocation, said, \"But you also have to be careful about how much buffer assets, such as safe assets, can provide relative to your cost at risk.\"</p><p>From a broader perspective,<b>U.S. Treasury Bond is facing its worst quarterly drop since at least 1973</b>。 As of Monday's close, the Bloomberg U.S. Treasury Bond Index had fallen 5.55% since Dec. 31 last year, surpassing the 5.45% drop in early 1980 and the biggest quarterly drop since the indicator was launched.</p><p>In addition, the yield on the 10-year U.S. municipal bond (AAA rating) rose 12 basis points on Tuesday, the largest intraday increase since April 2020, to 2.06%, and the yield on the 30-year U.S. municipal bond rose 11 basis points to 2.44%.%. Bloomberg data shows that U.S. municipal bonds (prices) have fallen about 5% so far in 2022,<b>May hit the worst single-quarter performance since 1994</b>。</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://xnews.jin10.com/webapp/details.html?id=91700&type=news\">金十数据</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a8ce7014259f64e9378baf244bd5b117","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","BK4581":"高盛持仓","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","TLT":"20+年以上美国国债ETF-iShares","IEI":"iShares Barclays 3-7 Year Trea","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","OEX":"标普100","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares","SPY":"标普500ETF","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares","GOVT":"iShares安硕核心美国国债ETF","BK4504":"桥水持仓","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares","BND":"债券指数ETF-Vanguard美国","SHY":"债券指数ETF-iShares Barclays 1-3年国债","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","IEF":"债券指数ETF-iShares Barclays 7-10年",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://xnews.jin10.com/webapp/details.html?id=91700&type=news","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2221091549","content_text":"美联储主席鲍威尔在周一讲话中暗示必要时FOMC可以在下次政策会议上决定加息50个基点后，其他美联储官员纷纷响应。梅斯特：不应排除加息50个基点的选项北京时间周三凌晨，2022年FOMC票委、克利夫兰联储主席梅斯特就美国经济前景和货币政策发表讲话。她表示，不认为加息50个基点的选项应该被排除，倾向于在2022年底前将利率提高到2.5%，即支持美联储全年进行约9.6次25个基点的标准加息，同时预计2023年将在中性水平之上进一步加息。梅斯特说：“根据我的预测，我认为在某些会议上我们将需要加息50个基点。”梅斯特称，通胀过高的风险将在经济发展中根深蒂固，长期通胀预期仍然稳定，政策能做的最好的事情就是恢复价格稳定。她指出，乌克兰冲突带来的通胀上行风险大于美国经济增长的下行风险，基本情况是经济将以高于趋势的速度增长并维持健康的就业增长，美联储需要使政策与当前的经济同步，需要采取行动来减少过度需求。梅斯特预计，今年通货膨胀率会下降，但不会回到2%。她说：“我们确实需要控制通货膨胀。重要的是要使用我们的两种工具（加息和缩表）来让通胀进入一个更好的轨道。缩表不会是对抗通胀的主要工具，但我们会‘尽我们所能’降低通胀。”戴利：美联储将利率上调至中性水平的时候到了美联储主席鲍威尔发表讲话后，美国国债收益率飙升，因为投资者加大了对美联储在2022年加息次数的押注，甚至像旧金山联储主席戴利这样的鸽派人士现在也支持采取强有力的行动。戴利周二在一次活动中说：“美联储或可考虑收紧至紧缩性（货币）政策。美联储将利率上调至中性水平的时候到了。”戴利称，考虑到高通胀和强劲的美国经济，美联储需要收紧政策。她说，通胀太高了，再加上两次供应链冲击进一步推高了通胀。随着俄乌冲突发展，不确定性也是一个问题。她预计美联储的政策调整和其他因素会降低通胀，但不认为年底通胀率会降至2%。布拉德：50个基点的加息肯定会出现圣路易斯联储主席、2022年FOMC票委布拉德周二晚间在接受采访时也重申，美联储需要采取积极行动来遏制通胀，需要让政策趋于中性，而且“越快越好”。布拉德说：“我认为50个基点的加息肯定会出现。”当被问及美联储应该采取多快的行动时，布拉德表示“越快越好”，并补充说“1994年的紧缩周期或取消宽松周期可能是最好的类比”。从1994年到1995年初，艾伦·格林斯潘领导下的美联储将利率从3%提高到6%，实现了经济“软着陆”，通胀得到控制，经济持续强劲增长，实现了有史以来最长的10年扩张。布拉德说：“历史告诉我们，我们越快转向这种情况，我们就越有可能将通胀推回目标水平并让美国经济繁荣。”布拉德还认为，美联储应该开始缩表，因为美联储允许资产负债表扩张的时间已经过长。他表示没有理由不马上开始缩表，他希望美联储今年采取温和的限制性政策，不能坐等地缘政治紧张局势缓解。布拉德仍然认为美联储可以实现软着陆。他说实体经济表现非常好，这是几年来最好的就业市场。此前，布拉德表示支持今年将利率提高到3%以上，这个预测比其他任何一位同僚都更加激进。野村证券美国经济学家罗伯特·登特表示：“鲍威尔周一的讲话旨在推动美联储在5月会议上加息50个基点。官员们现在表现出越来越迫切的需要，不仅要控制通胀，还要冷却劳动力市场，以防止工资价格螺旋上升。”美债市场抛售不止美联储主席鲍威尔本周针对FOMC加息前景的鹰派论调令当前货币市场预计，到2022年底，美联储可能会再进行8次25个基点的加息，下次会议加息50个基点的可能性超过四分之三。同时，鲍威尔的讲话也迫使投资者抛售美债。美国国债周二全线遭到抛售，延续了前一天的走势，短期债券势将创下近40年来最糟糕的季度表现。周二10年期美债收益率领涨，一度攀升近10个基点。与政策预期密切相关的2年期国债收益率一度上涨约7个百分点至2.18%，使其自2021年以来的涨幅扩大至145个基点，有望实现自1984年以来最大的季度增幅，当年美联储以50个基点或更大的幅度逐步收紧政策。5年期和30年期美债收益率之间的差距进一步缩小至2007年以来的最小水平，这表明收紧政策将减缓经济增速甚至导致衰退。这促使投资者质疑债券在这种情况下提供保护的能力。“我并不是说，如果我们面临衰退风险，债券就无法提供缓冲”，高盛国际投资组合策略和资产配置董事总经理克Christian Mueller-Glissmann表示，“但你也必须小心资产，比如安全资产，相对于你在风险中的成本，能提供多少缓冲”。从更广泛的角度来看，美国国债正面临至少自1973年以来最严重的季度跌幅。截至周一收盘，彭博美国国债指数自去年12月31日以来已下跌5.55%，超过了1980年初的5.45%跌幅，为该指标推出以来最大的季度跌幅。另外，美国10年期市政债券（AAA评级）收益率周二上涨12个基点，创2020年4月份以来最大盘中涨幅，至2.06%，30年期美国市政债券收益率涨11个基点，报2.44%。彭博数据显示，美国市政债券（价格）2022年迄今下跌大约5%，恐将创1994年以来最差单季表现。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.6,"513500":0.6,"SPY":1,"DDM":0.6,"DXD":0.6,"ZFmain":1,"DJX":0.6,"OEX":0.6,"DOG":0.6,"NQmain":0.6,"SQQQ":0.6,"SSO":0.6,"SDOW":0.6,".DJI":1,".SPX":0.6,"ZTmain":1,"ESmain":0.6,"IVV":0.6,"UPRO":0.6,"MNQmain":0.6,"OEF":0.6,"SDS":0.6,"TQQQ":0.6,"QQQ":0.6,"SPXU":0.6,"ZNmain":1,"TNmain":1,"TLT":0.6,"IEI":0.6,"UBmain":1,".IXIC":1,"GOVT":0.6,"ZBmain":1,"QLD":0.6,"SHY":0.6,"QID":0.6,"IEF":0.6,"SH":0.6,"BND":1,"UDOW":0.6,"PSQ":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":259,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9004067125,"gmtCreate":1642461442123,"gmtModify":1676533711688,"author":{"id":"3572683426659077","authorId":"3572683426659077","name":"haiwei183","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1cae291bddff5a30eeb96060074d8531","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3572683426659077","idStr":"3572683426659077"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"look","listText":"look","text":"look","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9004067125","repostId":"1100707376","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1100707376","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"中国大陆领先的金融数据、信息和软件服务企业，总部位于上海陆家嘴金融中心。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Wind万得","id":"99","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c71e30d1317b4a5cb20a41998e10ac68"},"pubTimestamp":1642400355,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1100707376?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-01-17 14:19","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Fed rate hike, $7 trillion waiting to buy the bottom?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1100707376","media":"Wind万得","summary":"今年美联储收紧已经是板上钉钉的事，唯一的分歧在于加息几次。对于流动性收紧的大背景下，美股必然面临挑战，目前可以对冲美股加息冲击的还有一笔巨款，上市公司手中的巨额现金，毕竟回购一直是美股优良传统。外汇市","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Fed tightening this year is a certain deal, and the only disagreement lies with rate hike several times. In the context of the liquidity tightening, U.S. stocks are bound to face challenges. At present, there is also a huge sum of money that can hedge against the impact of the U.S. stock market rate hike. The huge amount of cash in the hands of listed companies. After all, buybacks have always been a fine tradition of U.S. stocks.</p><p>Swap trading in the foreign exchange market shows that the Fed will make an 88 basis point rate hike by the end of the year and possibly four rate hike in 2022.</p><p>According to the forecast of Guojun Securities, under a neutral situation, this round of shrinking balance sheet adopts a strategy similar to that of the previous round, so the maximum stride of the monthly shrinking balance sheet is expected to be about 90 billion US dollars, consisting of 60 billion US dollars Treasury Bond and 30 billion US dollars MBS. In the last round of shrinking balance sheet, Treasury Bond and MBS were US $30 billion and US $20 billion respectively, which was basically the same as the proportion of assets held by the former Federal Reserve in shrinking balance sheet. As of December 22, the Fed held about $5.3 trillion in Treasury Bond and $2.6 trillion in MBS. Therefore, we expect the reduction ratio of Treasury Bond and MBS to be 2: 1, that is, 60 billion US dollars of Treasury Bond and 30 billion US dollars of MBS.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d57c8123b40216258e304260011332ed\" tg-width=\"796\" tg-height=\"493\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>According to the monthly shrinking balance sheet pace of 90 billion dollars, shrinking balance sheet will be about 3.24 trillion dollars in three years. The Federal Reserve has had 13 rate hike cycles since 1955, with an average time of less than 2 years.</p><p>CITIC Construction Investment found that in the last three rounds of rate hike cycles, the day after the Federal Reserve's official rate hike, U.S. stocks and emerging market stock markets usually fell; Within one month after the rate hike, the decline of U.S. stocks, especially the Nasdaq, may be obvious, the decline of emerging markets is slightly smaller than that of U.S. stocks, and the US Dollar Index is relatively weak; Within three months after the rate hike, the decline of U.S. stocks may further expand. If the tapering accelerates during this period, growth stocks may underperform value stocks.</p><p>The total amount of U.S. stock repurchases in 2021 will exceed one trillion US dollars, exceeding the record high of 806 billion US dollars in 2018. The repurchase also staged the 28-8 principle, and a few companies contributed the vast majority of the repurchase amount. In Q3 '21 buybacks, the top five companies accounted for nearly 30% of buybacks. Four of the five companies are tech companies.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b3eab7bb044fa3d4f2720f37a4ec0c9a\" tg-width=\"634\" tg-height=\"394\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Apple repurchased $20.4 billion, Meta repurchased $15 billion, Alphabet repurchased $12.6 billion, Bank of America repurchased $9.9 billion, and Oracle repurchased $8.8 billion.</p><p>According to the statistics of Bank of America, due to the growth of profits, the available cash on the books of listed companies is also increasing day by day. As of the third quarter of last year, the book cash of non-financial companies reached 7 trillion US dollars, setting another historical record.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/48955ee040017c5ed19aaf1ab28b7080\" tg-width=\"566\" tg-height=\"439\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>As of the third quarter of 2021, Buffett holds more than 140 billion in cash, which is the second year that he has maintained such a high cash level. Banks such as JPMorgan Chase and Bank of America have also started issuing bonds in large quantities, and on a larger scale than ever before, especially with JPMorgan effectively hoarding up to $500 billion. Another data shows that the top 500 rich people in the United States sold a total of US $42.9 billion in stocks last year, compared with only US $20.2 billion the year before last, that is, the whole year of 2020.</p><p>If the Fed's rate hike causes the market to fall, will these companies with huge amounts of cash take the opportunity to \"pick up the leakage\" and then support the market?</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Fed rate hike, $7 trillion waiting to buy the bottom?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nFed rate hike, $7 trillion waiting to buy the bottom?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/99\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/c71e30d1317b4a5cb20a41998e10ac68);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Wind万得 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-01-17 14:19</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Fed tightening this year is a certain deal, and the only disagreement lies with rate hike several times. In the context of the liquidity tightening, U.S. stocks are bound to face challenges. At present, there is also a huge sum of money that can hedge against the impact of the U.S. stock market rate hike. The huge amount of cash in the hands of listed companies. After all, buybacks have always been a fine tradition of U.S. stocks.</p><p>Swap trading in the foreign exchange market shows that the Fed will make an 88 basis point rate hike by the end of the year and possibly four rate hike in 2022.</p><p>According to the forecast of Guojun Securities, under a neutral situation, this round of shrinking balance sheet adopts a strategy similar to that of the previous round, so the maximum stride of the monthly shrinking balance sheet is expected to be about 90 billion US dollars, consisting of 60 billion US dollars Treasury Bond and 30 billion US dollars MBS. In the last round of shrinking balance sheet, Treasury Bond and MBS were US $30 billion and US $20 billion respectively, which was basically the same as the proportion of assets held by the former Federal Reserve in shrinking balance sheet. As of December 22, the Fed held about $5.3 trillion in Treasury Bond and $2.6 trillion in MBS. Therefore, we expect the reduction ratio of Treasury Bond and MBS to be 2: 1, that is, 60 billion US dollars of Treasury Bond and 30 billion US dollars of MBS.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d57c8123b40216258e304260011332ed\" tg-width=\"796\" tg-height=\"493\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>According to the monthly shrinking balance sheet pace of 90 billion dollars, shrinking balance sheet will be about 3.24 trillion dollars in three years. The Federal Reserve has had 13 rate hike cycles since 1955, with an average time of less than 2 years.</p><p>CITIC Construction Investment found that in the last three rounds of rate hike cycles, the day after the Federal Reserve's official rate hike, U.S. stocks and emerging market stock markets usually fell; Within one month after the rate hike, the decline of U.S. stocks, especially the Nasdaq, may be obvious, the decline of emerging markets is slightly smaller than that of U.S. stocks, and the US Dollar Index is relatively weak; Within three months after the rate hike, the decline of U.S. stocks may further expand. If the tapering accelerates during this period, growth stocks may underperform value stocks.</p><p>The total amount of U.S. stock repurchases in 2021 will exceed one trillion US dollars, exceeding the record high of 806 billion US dollars in 2018. The repurchase also staged the 28-8 principle, and a few companies contributed the vast majority of the repurchase amount. In Q3 '21 buybacks, the top five companies accounted for nearly 30% of buybacks. Four of the five companies are tech companies.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b3eab7bb044fa3d4f2720f37a4ec0c9a\" tg-width=\"634\" tg-height=\"394\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Apple repurchased $20.4 billion, Meta repurchased $15 billion, Alphabet repurchased $12.6 billion, Bank of America repurchased $9.9 billion, and Oracle repurchased $8.8 billion.</p><p>According to the statistics of Bank of America, due to the growth of profits, the available cash on the books of listed companies is also increasing day by day. As of the third quarter of last year, the book cash of non-financial companies reached 7 trillion US dollars, setting another historical record.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/48955ee040017c5ed19aaf1ab28b7080\" tg-width=\"566\" tg-height=\"439\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>As of the third quarter of 2021, Buffett holds more than 140 billion in cash, which is the second year that he has maintained such a high cash level. Banks such as JPMorgan Chase and Bank of America have also started issuing bonds in large quantities, and on a larger scale than ever before, especially with JPMorgan effectively hoarding up to $500 billion. Another data shows that the top 500 rich people in the United States sold a total of US $42.9 billion in stocks last year, compared with only US $20.2 billion the year before last, that is, the whole year of 2020.</p><p>If the Fed's rate hike causes the market to fall, will these companies with huge amounts of cash take the opportunity to \"pick up the leakage\" and then support the market?</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f6ec6e99c0c8b9feb7f296b78c65a54","relate_stocks":{"513500":"标普500ETF","SPY":"标普500ETF","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares","BK4504":"桥水持仓",".DJI":"道琼斯","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1100707376","content_text":"今年美联储收紧已经是板上钉钉的事，唯一的分歧在于加息几次。对于流动性收紧的大背景下，美股必然面临挑战，目前可以对冲美股加息冲击的还有一笔巨款，上市公司手中的巨额现金，毕竟回购一直是美股优良传统。外汇市场掉期交易显示，美联储将在今年年底前加息88个基点，并有可能在2022年四次加息。根据国君证券预测，中性情形下，本轮缩表采用和上轮相似的策略，那么预计每月缩表的最大步幅约为900亿美元，由600亿美元国债和300亿美元MBS构成。上一轮缩表时国债和MBS分别为300亿美元和200亿美元，和缩表前联储所持有的资产比例基本一致。截至12月22日，联储持有约5.3万亿美元的国债和2.6万亿美元的MBS。因此我们预计国债和MBS的缩减比例也为2：1，即600亿美元国债和300亿美元的MBS。按照每月900亿美元的缩表步幅，三年大约缩表3.24万亿美元。美联储自1955年以来共有13个加息周期，平均时间不到2年。中信建投发现，在近三轮加息周期中，美联储正式加息后的隔天，美股和新兴市场股市通常都会下挫；加息后1个月内，美股特别是纳指跌幅或较明显，新兴市场跌幅略小于美股，美元指数相对疲软；加息后3个月内，美股跌幅或进一步扩大，若期间缩债加速则成长股可能会跑输价值股。2021年美股回购总额超万亿美元，超过2018年创纪录的8,060亿美元。回购同样上演了二八原则，少数公司贡献了回购金额的绝大部分。在21年第三季度的回购中，前五家公司占了回购的近30%。这五家公司中有四家是科技公司。苹果回购204亿美元，Meta回购150亿美元，Alphabet回购126亿美元，美国银行回购99亿美元，Oracle回购88亿美元。而根据美银的统计，由于盈利增长，上市公司账面上的可用现金也是日益增多，截止去年第三季度，非金融类公司账面现金达7万亿美元，再创历史记录。截止2021年第三季度持仓，巴菲特持有的现金超过1400亿，这已经他第二年保持如此高的现金。摩根大通和美银等银行也开始大量发行债券，而且规模比以往任何时候都要大，尤其是摩根大通有效地囤积资金量高达5000亿美元。另一个数据显示，全美前500个富人去年总计抛售股票429亿美元，而前年也就是2020年全年只有202亿美元。如果美联储加息导致市场下跌，这些手握巨额现金的公司会趁机“捡漏”，进而托底市场吗？","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"513500":0.9,"SDOW":0.9,"QQQ":0.9,"OEF":0.9,"SPY":0.9,"DXD":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"SDS":0.9,"SQQQ":0.9,"SSO":0.9,"DJX":0.9,"QID":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"ESmain":0.9,"PSQ":0.9,"SH":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1234,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9968186910,"gmtCreate":1669161538730,"gmtModify":1676538159530,"author":{"id":"3572683426659077","authorId":"3572683426659077","name":"haiwei183","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1cae291bddff5a30eeb96060074d8531","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3572683426659077","idStr":"3572683426659077"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"look","listText":"look","text":"look","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9968186910","repostId":"1108035622","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1108035622","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"港股挖掘机将每天为您推送最具价值的港股、美股、A股投资资讯！第一时间把握全球政策动向，先人一步了解主流资金流向，监测主力行踪，解读公司公告，追踪活跃个股，让您畅享投资财富盛宴!","home_visible":1,"media_name":"智通财经APP","id":"12","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/361f7f1ca0d64e919035653d64c723ab"},"pubTimestamp":1669128253,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1108035622?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-11-22 22:44","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Pessimistic expectations have been digested! A good opportunity on the left side of chip stocks is coming","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1108035622","media":"智通财经APP","summary":"历史数据显示市场往往提前半年左右开始定价，正好对应今年第三季度末，这或许是“股神”瞅准时机建仓的重要原因。在上周，“股神”巴菲特旗下伯克希尔哈撒韦公布的最新13F持仓报告显示，该机构在第三季度新建仓芯","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Historical data shows that the market often starts pricing about half a year in advance, which coincides with the end of the third quarter of this year. This may be an important reason why the \"stock god\" sees the right time to open positions. Last week, \"Stock God\" Buffett<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BRK.A\">Berkshire</a>The latest 13F position report released by Hathaway shows that the agency opened new positions in chip manufacturing giants in the third quarter<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSM\">TSMC</a>, a total of about 60.06 million shares, with a market value of US $4.1 billion, accounting for 1.39% of the investment portfolio, ranking tenth among the stock gods' heavyweight stocks.</p><p>After the release of Berkshire Hathaway's 13F position report, TSMC rose by more than 10% as of yesterday. In the eyes of market observers, if this new position is led by Buffett personally, then the most important reason for his position in TSMC may lie in the following two points: one is to control pricing power, and the other is the company's ability to control costs. As a global chip TSMC, a well-deserved leader in manufacturing, undoubtedly meets these two business characteristics. At the same time, these two points are also important criteria for \"stock gods\" to choose stock targets for many years.</p><p>Focusing on the broader U.S. chip sector, some analysts believe that the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index, which can be called the \"global chip stock benchmark\", has been priced, and even overpriced the pessimistic expectations of the macro and industry. Therefore, as long as there is good news, an oversold rebound is possible at any time. May happen. This index covers<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ASML\">ASML</a>, TSMC,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMAT\">Applied Materials</a>And<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QCOM\">Qualcomm</a>The trend of top companies in the upper, middle and lower reaches of the global chip industry can basically reflect the financial market's confidence and valuation of global chip stocks.</p><p>Compared with the S&P 500 Index, the U.S. stock market, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index, which covers the world's top chip companies, is much more cyclical than the S&P 500 Index. The magnitude of the decline far exceeds that of the broader market in the same period.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f8fa4a909451810274c6a25682db4233\" tg-width=\"1359\" tg-height=\"502\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Zhitong Finance APP noticed that since this year, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index has fallen by as much as 33%, among which the three giants of PC chips:<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">Nvidia</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMD\">AMD</a>And<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INTC\">Intel</a>Both fell nearly 50%. However, since the periodic low on October 13, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index has rebounded by more than 23%, mainly driven by the rebound wave started by the cooling of inflation expectations in November. Among them, constituent stocks such as Nvidia have also performed relatively well.</p><p>Most investors agree with the above view: that is, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index has priced in, even overpriced, pessimistic expectations-valuation collapses caused by the Fed's aggressive rate hike and high inflation, shrinking industry demand, and surging inventories.</p><p>However, more importantly, the fundamentals of the chip industry may usher in a major turning point next year. Historical data shows that the stock market tends to price the fundamentals at least half a year in advance. Perhaps this is also the important reason why the \"stock god\" sees the right time to buy TSMC. One of the reasons.</p><p><b>The top of inventory is gradually taking shape, and the recovery cycle is expected to start in the second half of 2023</b></p><p><b>After analyzing the inventory outlook and market expectation data, this article concludes that the chip industry is expected to start the passive destocking mode in Q3 of 2023, and 23Q4 is expected to shift from passive destocking to active replenishment to achieve both volume and price increases, another round of industry prosperity. The upward trend will start.</b></p><p><b>According to the model calculated in this article, 2023Q2 is the time when the pace of passive destocking slows down marginally. Historical data shows that the market often starts pricing half a year in advance, which coincides with the end of the third quarter of this year. This may be the reason why the \"stock god\" sees the right time to open positions. important reason. Therefore, for some investors who focus on ambush layout in advance, this can be said to be the time when the marginal recovery effect begins to appear, that is, a good time to buy bottoms.</b></p><p>The global chip industry inventory expectation index previously released by market research institutions shows that industry inventory will reach a phased high level in Q4 2022, corresponding to the active destocking stage in the inventory cycle. At this stage, inventory often reaches its peak and then begins to shrink.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8179f4425b8b798a75fae9c942c34b5e\" tg-width=\"850\" tg-height=\"489\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Combined with the semiconductor inventory level announced by Statistics Korea, it is more obvious that the inventory is on an upward trend in Q3. The Q4 data has not yet been released, but it is expected to form an inventory arc top. Korean owned<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SMSD.UK\">Samsung Electronics</a>, SK Hynix are the two global chip production leaders, and the country's economic development model is mainly export-based, so Korean chip product inventory can reflect the global chip inventory trend.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5bfbb16476cf1607be633c29df196bec\" tg-width=\"568\" tg-height=\"357\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>So when will the inventory inflection point appear? As the leader in chip manufacturing, TSMC is interested in top chip companies in the Fabless model (such as AMD, Nvidia and Qualcomm, etc.), as well as consumer electronics companies that outsource production, such as<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>When the company's inventory level is well known, TSMC's outlook for product inventory can basically reflect the trend of product inventory in the entire chip industry, and historical data has proved this point many times.</p><p>TSMC's management predicted on the Q3 earnings call that chip industry inventories could peak as early as the third quarter of this year, or they could peak or begin to decrease in the fourth quarter, which will cause some pain to the entire supply chain. On top of that, management believes that the active adjustment period of product inventories will end in the first half of 2023.</p><p>Wall Street's outlook for industry inventories is almost the same as TSMC's. Wall Street<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FISI\">Financial institution</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a>It is expected that the second half of 2023 will be an important time point for semiconductors to start the recovery cycle. \"We expect the semiconductor cycle to start a recovery in the second half of 2023 and recommend buying high-quality stocks on dips now. Among them, TSMC is our top pick,\" the agency said in a note released in October. And described TSMC as a \"enabler of future technologies.\"</p><p>The agency also predicts that the worst time point in the industry's inventory cycle will occur as early as the fourth quarter of this year and as late as the first quarter of next year, and stock prices tend to bottom out before the inflection point in the inventory cycle.</p><p><b>Through the recent recovery cycle of review's chip industry, it is found that it generally takes about 6 quarters from active destocking to active inventory replenishment. Combining the above data, this article's outlook for chip product inventory is as follows: Passive destocking will start in Q3 of 2023, and 23Q4 is expected to shift from passive destocking to active replenishment, and another round of upward trend in industry prosperity will begin.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1fadf15b6ce70201073cf20003762393\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"420\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Good news is coming, pessimistic expectations are gradually digested, and the market is pricing the fundamental inflection point in advance</b></p><p><b>According to the forecast data of many authoritative organizations, the prosperity of the chip industry is expected to continue in 2023, but unlike the industry prosperity triggered by PC equipment in the context of the outbreak of COVID-19 pandemic in the first half of 2021-2022, next year, especially the second half of next year, will be dominated by the automotive industry. Industry prosperity dominated by enterprise server demand.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/F\">Ford</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GM\">General Motors</a>, including ambitious electric vehicle transformation plans of traditional automakers such as Volkswagen and BMW, will also support the sales prospects of automotive chips such as analog chips and MCUs.</b></p><p><b>Through analysis, this article concludes that the second half of 2023 may be the time when the fundamentals of the chip industry start a new round of substantial recovery. However, the easing of inflation expectations in the United States, coupled with Buffett's latest position announcement of a new position in TSMC, catalyzed market sentiment and the rebound trend of the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index, making the upward trend of the overall industry stock price that should have started at the end of the year or early next year start ahead of schedule. At present, the pessimistic expectations of the market are gradually being digested-specifically, the market has basically digested the pessimistic scenario from Q3 to Q1 next year. Analysts' optimism about the industry has shown a marginal warming, and the market has priced the fundamental inflection point of the industry in advance.</b></p><p>Chips are an important underlying hardware for all walks of life around the world to transform to digital and intelligent business models in the future, and for mankind to realize the Internet of Everything scenario in the future. Therefore, the overall demand for chips is difficult to shrink sharply in the future. According to the forecast data of a number of authoritative market research institutions, the overall market size growth rate of the entire industry in 2023 may be difficult to reach the high growth level in 2022, but it will still be in a positive growth and prosperity situation. Market research organization IDC predicts that the chip market size including the memory chip field and IDM + Fabless manufacturers will grow by approximately 6% in 2023 compared with 2022.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1ab0116078ae97530e366195a3396fa4\" tg-width=\"778\" tg-height=\"413\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>According to the latest 2023 industry outlook data released by the World Organization for Semiconductor Trade Statistics (WSTS), the global semiconductor market size is expected to grow by 13.9% in 2022 and another 4.6% in 2023. Among them, the main growth areas are concentrated in analog chips, logic chips and MCU chips. The largest contributors to these markets have been concentrated in automobile manufacturers in recent years, while the growth rate of memory chips, mainly concentrated in consumer electronics fields such as PCs, has slowed down sharply.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/53cd853257d720ff2690ae0f3997148d\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"356\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>This is consistent with the expectations of most institutions, that is, the main areas that will drive the recovery of the chip industry in 2023 will be the demand for automotive chips and enterprise chips. In a high interest rate environment and the withdrawal of liquidity by the Federal Reserve's shrinking balance sheet, the hot demand for consumer electronics is difficult to sustain. However, in the context of the global trend of electric vehicle intelligence and the transformation of enterprise clouds, the demand for automotive chips and enterprise server chips will continue to be strong.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af27c5feefc6551c724ebed4612090a9\" tg-width=\"592\" tg-height=\"272\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Logic chips are widely used, such as PCs, smartphones and enterprise servers. It has become a market consensus that the demand for consumer electronics will be weak next year, and the demand for logic chips on the enterprise side will continue to be strong. This can also be seen from the optimistic outlook of Nvidia and AMD for server chips. It can also be seen that AMD predicted at its quarterly results meeting that the growth of the server market and strong demand for customized chips will help boost AMD's future performance. In this field, AMD's market share has risen from less than 1% to double-digit levels. Intel CEO Pat Gelsinger said that he expects demand in the server processor field to continue to be hot and fierce competition will continue.</p><p>It is understood that among the proportions of MCU and analog chips in different downstream products, automobiles have accounted for the highest proportion in recent years, followed by industrial uses, and the same is true for sensors and power chips. according to<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SPGI\">S&P Global</a>According to the forecast data, global light vehicle production will show a steady upward trend until 2025. Volkswagen, the world's leading automobile manufacturer, predicts that the shortage of automotive chips will last until at least 2023. Therefore, the trend of rising automotive chip volume and price next year has basically been established.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bf2b6a12975ff904b0fa0478d2a42c6c\" tg-width=\"1088\" tg-height=\"523\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Combined with the above outlook for the inventory cycle, this article concludes that the second half of 2023 will be a critical time point for the fundamentals of the chip industry to start a new round of substantial recovery. Therefore, for some investors who focus on ambush layout in advance, this can be described as the time when the marginal effect begins to appear, which is a good time for the so-called \"bargain hunting\".</b></p><p><b>Perhaps this is one of the important reasons why the \"stock god\" sees the right time to buy TSMC. According to the model calculated in this article, 2023Q2 is the time when the margin of passive destocking slows down, and the market often sets prices half a year in advance. This may be one of the reasons why the \"stock god\" sees the right time to open positions in the third quarter.</b></p><p>Market expectation data compiled by market research firm Yardeni shows that although analysts' \"confidence index based on profitability\" for the IT sector in the S&P 500 index is still seriously lower than in 2022, IT has shown a very obvious marginal improvement trend recently, which is basically consistent with this article's outlook for the industry recovery in the second half of 2023 of the inventory cycle-that is, the market has begun to price in advance the recovery expectation of 23H2.</p><p>The S&P 500 IT sector includes core constituent stocks of the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index such as Nvidia, AMD and Intel, and occupies the majority weight. Analysts expect a marginal recovery in the IT sector, which means that they are equally optimistic about IT hardware fields such as chips.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/33fd83e9b68e56cde11dbb90649cf0eb\" tg-width=\"832\" tg-height=\"426\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Disturbance factors that still need to be vigilant</b></p><p><b>As far as the current situation is concerned, chip stocks are still in the left area and tend to bottom out. The current rebound of the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index is mainly due to the market's expectation that the chip industry will usher in an inflection point of recovery next year, and the index generally starts to pick up half a year in advance. The cooling of inflation expectations, the rising market expectations for the Fed's dovish turn, and the news that Buffett has opened a position in TSMC have made the benchmark index \"forced to advance\" the rebound time.</b></p><p>However, what needs to be vigilant is that in the context of the Federal Reserve's aggressive rate hike cycle, if the U.S. economy falls into a \"deep recession\" as defined by NBER next year, corporate profits will face a major negative impact, and chip industry giants may release \"destocking\" and \"performance falls short of expectations\". At that time, the market's expectations for H1 destocking and H2 industry recovery next year will also face revisions, and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index may be adjusted again.</p><p>combine<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>Waiting for the outlook of Wall Street banks for the U.S. economy, it is still a small probability event that the U.S. will fall into a full recession next year. Economists at Goldman Sachs predict that the possibility of a recession in the U.S. in the next 12 months is only 35%.</p><p>In addition, if the next inflation data in the United States is still not optimistic, the market's expectations for the Federal Reserve's \"dove turn\" may cool down significantly, and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index will also face adjustments. However, the adjustment range under this disturbance factor may not be too large, or even difficult to fall below the previous low point, mainly because after many hawkish speeches by Fed officials, the market has largely priced this expectation of rate hike to 5%-5.25%. Unless the rate hike expectation heats up substantially (the current market rate hike expectation is between 4.75%-5.25%)-that is, it is expected to heat up above 5.25%, it is difficult for the index to plummet again due to rate hike factors.</p><p>So, for investors,<b>In addition to paying attention to the turning point of industry fundamentals, the performance of key companies and the market's rate hike expectations of the Federal Reserve are two very critical factors affecting stock prices.</b></p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Pessimistic expectations have been digested! A good opportunity on the left side of chip stocks is coming</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPessimistic expectations have been digested! A good opportunity on the left side of chip stocks is coming\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/12\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/361f7f1ca0d64e919035653d64c723ab);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">智通财经APP </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-11-22 22:44</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Historical data shows that the market often starts pricing about half a year in advance, which coincides with the end of the third quarter of this year. This may be an important reason why the \"stock god\" sees the right time to open positions. Last week, \"Stock God\" Buffett<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BRK.A\">Berkshire</a>The latest 13F position report released by Hathaway shows that the agency opened new positions in chip manufacturing giants in the third quarter<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSM\">TSMC</a>, a total of about 60.06 million shares, with a market value of US $4.1 billion, accounting for 1.39% of the investment portfolio, ranking tenth among the stock gods' heavyweight stocks.</p><p>After the release of Berkshire Hathaway's 13F position report, TSMC rose by more than 10% as of yesterday. In the eyes of market observers, if this new position is led by Buffett personally, then the most important reason for his position in TSMC may lie in the following two points: one is to control pricing power, and the other is the company's ability to control costs. As a global chip TSMC, a well-deserved leader in manufacturing, undoubtedly meets these two business characteristics. At the same time, these two points are also important criteria for \"stock gods\" to choose stock targets for many years.</p><p>Focusing on the broader U.S. chip sector, some analysts believe that the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index, which can be called the \"global chip stock benchmark\", has been priced, and even overpriced the pessimistic expectations of the macro and industry. Therefore, as long as there is good news, an oversold rebound is possible at any time. May happen. This index covers<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ASML\">ASML</a>, TSMC,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMAT\">Applied Materials</a>And<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QCOM\">Qualcomm</a>The trend of top companies in the upper, middle and lower reaches of the global chip industry can basically reflect the financial market's confidence and valuation of global chip stocks.</p><p>Compared with the S&P 500 Index, the U.S. stock market, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index, which covers the world's top chip companies, is much more cyclical than the S&P 500 Index. The magnitude of the decline far exceeds that of the broader market in the same period.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f8fa4a909451810274c6a25682db4233\" tg-width=\"1359\" tg-height=\"502\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Zhitong Finance APP noticed that since this year, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index has fallen by as much as 33%, among which the three giants of PC chips:<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">Nvidia</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMD\">AMD</a>And<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INTC\">Intel</a>Both fell nearly 50%. However, since the periodic low on October 13, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index has rebounded by more than 23%, mainly driven by the rebound wave started by the cooling of inflation expectations in November. Among them, constituent stocks such as Nvidia have also performed relatively well.</p><p>Most investors agree with the above view: that is, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index has priced in, even overpriced, pessimistic expectations-valuation collapses caused by the Fed's aggressive rate hike and high inflation, shrinking industry demand, and surging inventories.</p><p>However, more importantly, the fundamentals of the chip industry may usher in a major turning point next year. Historical data shows that the stock market tends to price the fundamentals at least half a year in advance. Perhaps this is also the important reason why the \"stock god\" sees the right time to buy TSMC. One of the reasons.</p><p><b>The top of inventory is gradually taking shape, and the recovery cycle is expected to start in the second half of 2023</b></p><p><b>After analyzing the inventory outlook and market expectation data, this article concludes that the chip industry is expected to start the passive destocking mode in Q3 of 2023, and 23Q4 is expected to shift from passive destocking to active replenishment to achieve both volume and price increases, another round of industry prosperity. The upward trend will start.</b></p><p><b>According to the model calculated in this article, 2023Q2 is the time when the pace of passive destocking slows down marginally. Historical data shows that the market often starts pricing half a year in advance, which coincides with the end of the third quarter of this year. This may be the reason why the \"stock god\" sees the right time to open positions. important reason. Therefore, for some investors who focus on ambush layout in advance, this can be said to be the time when the marginal recovery effect begins to appear, that is, a good time to buy bottoms.</b></p><p>The global chip industry inventory expectation index previously released by market research institutions shows that industry inventory will reach a phased high level in Q4 2022, corresponding to the active destocking stage in the inventory cycle. At this stage, inventory often reaches its peak and then begins to shrink.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8179f4425b8b798a75fae9c942c34b5e\" tg-width=\"850\" tg-height=\"489\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Combined with the semiconductor inventory level announced by Statistics Korea, it is more obvious that the inventory is on an upward trend in Q3. The Q4 data has not yet been released, but it is expected to form an inventory arc top. Korean owned<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SMSD.UK\">Samsung Electronics</a>, SK Hynix are the two global chip production leaders, and the country's economic development model is mainly export-based, so Korean chip product inventory can reflect the global chip inventory trend.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5bfbb16476cf1607be633c29df196bec\" tg-width=\"568\" tg-height=\"357\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>So when will the inventory inflection point appear? As the leader in chip manufacturing, TSMC is interested in top chip companies in the Fabless model (such as AMD, Nvidia and Qualcomm, etc.), as well as consumer electronics companies that outsource production, such as<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>When the company's inventory level is well known, TSMC's outlook for product inventory can basically reflect the trend of product inventory in the entire chip industry, and historical data has proved this point many times.</p><p>TSMC's management predicted on the Q3 earnings call that chip industry inventories could peak as early as the third quarter of this year, or they could peak or begin to decrease in the fourth quarter, which will cause some pain to the entire supply chain. On top of that, management believes that the active adjustment period of product inventories will end in the first half of 2023.</p><p>Wall Street's outlook for industry inventories is almost the same as TSMC's. Wall Street<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FISI\">Financial institution</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a>It is expected that the second half of 2023 will be an important time point for semiconductors to start the recovery cycle. \"We expect the semiconductor cycle to start a recovery in the second half of 2023 and recommend buying high-quality stocks on dips now. Among them, TSMC is our top pick,\" the agency said in a note released in October. And described TSMC as a \"enabler of future technologies.\"</p><p>The agency also predicts that the worst time point in the industry's inventory cycle will occur as early as the fourth quarter of this year and as late as the first quarter of next year, and stock prices tend to bottom out before the inflection point in the inventory cycle.</p><p><b>Through the recent recovery cycle of review's chip industry, it is found that it generally takes about 6 quarters from active destocking to active inventory replenishment. Combining the above data, this article's outlook for chip product inventory is as follows: Passive destocking will start in Q3 of 2023, and 23Q4 is expected to shift from passive destocking to active replenishment, and another round of upward trend in industry prosperity will begin.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1fadf15b6ce70201073cf20003762393\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"420\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Good news is coming, pessimistic expectations are gradually digested, and the market is pricing the fundamental inflection point in advance</b></p><p><b>According to the forecast data of many authoritative organizations, the prosperity of the chip industry is expected to continue in 2023, but unlike the industry prosperity triggered by PC equipment in the context of the outbreak of COVID-19 pandemic in the first half of 2021-2022, next year, especially the second half of next year, will be dominated by the automotive industry. Industry prosperity dominated by enterprise server demand.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/F\">Ford</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GM\">General Motors</a>, including ambitious electric vehicle transformation plans of traditional automakers such as Volkswagen and BMW, will also support the sales prospects of automotive chips such as analog chips and MCUs.</b></p><p><b>Through analysis, this article concludes that the second half of 2023 may be the time when the fundamentals of the chip industry start a new round of substantial recovery. However, the easing of inflation expectations in the United States, coupled with Buffett's latest position announcement of a new position in TSMC, catalyzed market sentiment and the rebound trend of the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index, making the upward trend of the overall industry stock price that should have started at the end of the year or early next year start ahead of schedule. At present, the pessimistic expectations of the market are gradually being digested-specifically, the market has basically digested the pessimistic scenario from Q3 to Q1 next year. Analysts' optimism about the industry has shown a marginal warming, and the market has priced the fundamental inflection point of the industry in advance.</b></p><p>Chips are an important underlying hardware for all walks of life around the world to transform to digital and intelligent business models in the future, and for mankind to realize the Internet of Everything scenario in the future. Therefore, the overall demand for chips is difficult to shrink sharply in the future. According to the forecast data of a number of authoritative market research institutions, the overall market size growth rate of the entire industry in 2023 may be difficult to reach the high growth level in 2022, but it will still be in a positive growth and prosperity situation. Market research organization IDC predicts that the chip market size including the memory chip field and IDM + Fabless manufacturers will grow by approximately 6% in 2023 compared with 2022.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1ab0116078ae97530e366195a3396fa4\" tg-width=\"778\" tg-height=\"413\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>According to the latest 2023 industry outlook data released by the World Organization for Semiconductor Trade Statistics (WSTS), the global semiconductor market size is expected to grow by 13.9% in 2022 and another 4.6% in 2023. Among them, the main growth areas are concentrated in analog chips, logic chips and MCU chips. The largest contributors to these markets have been concentrated in automobile manufacturers in recent years, while the growth rate of memory chips, mainly concentrated in consumer electronics fields such as PCs, has slowed down sharply.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/53cd853257d720ff2690ae0f3997148d\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"356\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>This is consistent with the expectations of most institutions, that is, the main areas that will drive the recovery of the chip industry in 2023 will be the demand for automotive chips and enterprise chips. In a high interest rate environment and the withdrawal of liquidity by the Federal Reserve's shrinking balance sheet, the hot demand for consumer electronics is difficult to sustain. However, in the context of the global trend of electric vehicle intelligence and the transformation of enterprise clouds, the demand for automotive chips and enterprise server chips will continue to be strong.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af27c5feefc6551c724ebed4612090a9\" tg-width=\"592\" tg-height=\"272\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Logic chips are widely used, such as PCs, smartphones and enterprise servers. It has become a market consensus that the demand for consumer electronics will be weak next year, and the demand for logic chips on the enterprise side will continue to be strong. This can also be seen from the optimistic outlook of Nvidia and AMD for server chips. It can also be seen that AMD predicted at its quarterly results meeting that the growth of the server market and strong demand for customized chips will help boost AMD's future performance. In this field, AMD's market share has risen from less than 1% to double-digit levels. Intel CEO Pat Gelsinger said that he expects demand in the server processor field to continue to be hot and fierce competition will continue.</p><p>It is understood that among the proportions of MCU and analog chips in different downstream products, automobiles have accounted for the highest proportion in recent years, followed by industrial uses, and the same is true for sensors and power chips. according to<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SPGI\">S&P Global</a>According to the forecast data, global light vehicle production will show a steady upward trend until 2025. Volkswagen, the world's leading automobile manufacturer, predicts that the shortage of automotive chips will last until at least 2023. Therefore, the trend of rising automotive chip volume and price next year has basically been established.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bf2b6a12975ff904b0fa0478d2a42c6c\" tg-width=\"1088\" tg-height=\"523\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Combined with the above outlook for the inventory cycle, this article concludes that the second half of 2023 will be a critical time point for the fundamentals of the chip industry to start a new round of substantial recovery. Therefore, for some investors who focus on ambush layout in advance, this can be described as the time when the marginal effect begins to appear, which is a good time for the so-called \"bargain hunting\".</b></p><p><b>Perhaps this is one of the important reasons why the \"stock god\" sees the right time to buy TSMC. According to the model calculated in this article, 2023Q2 is the time when the margin of passive destocking slows down, and the market often sets prices half a year in advance. This may be one of the reasons why the \"stock god\" sees the right time to open positions in the third quarter.</b></p><p>Market expectation data compiled by market research firm Yardeni shows that although analysts' \"confidence index based on profitability\" for the IT sector in the S&P 500 index is still seriously lower than in 2022, IT has shown a very obvious marginal improvement trend recently, which is basically consistent with this article's outlook for the industry recovery in the second half of 2023 of the inventory cycle-that is, the market has begun to price in advance the recovery expectation of 23H2.</p><p>The S&P 500 IT sector includes core constituent stocks of the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index such as Nvidia, AMD and Intel, and occupies the majority weight. Analysts expect a marginal recovery in the IT sector, which means that they are equally optimistic about IT hardware fields such as chips.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/33fd83e9b68e56cde11dbb90649cf0eb\" tg-width=\"832\" tg-height=\"426\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Disturbance factors that still need to be vigilant</b></p><p><b>As far as the current situation is concerned, chip stocks are still in the left area and tend to bottom out. The current rebound of the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index is mainly due to the market's expectation that the chip industry will usher in an inflection point of recovery next year, and the index generally starts to pick up half a year in advance. The cooling of inflation expectations, the rising market expectations for the Fed's dovish turn, and the news that Buffett has opened a position in TSMC have made the benchmark index \"forced to advance\" the rebound time.</b></p><p>However, what needs to be vigilant is that in the context of the Federal Reserve's aggressive rate hike cycle, if the U.S. economy falls into a \"deep recession\" as defined by NBER next year, corporate profits will face a major negative impact, and chip industry giants may release \"destocking\" and \"performance falls short of expectations\". At that time, the market's expectations for H1 destocking and H2 industry recovery next year will also face revisions, and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index may be adjusted again.</p><p>combine<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>Waiting for the outlook of Wall Street banks for the U.S. economy, it is still a small probability event that the U.S. will fall into a full recession next year. Economists at Goldman Sachs predict that the possibility of a recession in the U.S. in the next 12 months is only 35%.</p><p>In addition, if the next inflation data in the United States is still not optimistic, the market's expectations for the Federal Reserve's \"dove turn\" may cool down significantly, and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index will also face adjustments. However, the adjustment range under this disturbance factor may not be too large, or even difficult to fall below the previous low point, mainly because after many hawkish speeches by Fed officials, the market has largely priced this expectation of rate hike to 5%-5.25%. Unless the rate hike expectation heats up substantially (the current market rate hike expectation is between 4.75%-5.25%)-that is, it is expected to heat up above 5.25%, it is difficult for the index to plummet again due to rate hike factors.</p><p>So, for investors,<b>In addition to paying attention to the turning point of industry fundamentals, the performance of key companies and the market's rate hike expectations of the Federal Reserve are two very critical factors affecting stock prices.</b></p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8a1a8c5698b6f32ee1637556a15bb35b","relate_stocks":{"TSM":"台积电","ASML":"阿斯麦","INTC":"英特尔","AMD":"美国超微公司","NVDA":"英伟达"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1108035622","content_text":"历史数据显示市场往往提前半年左右开始定价，正好对应今年第三季度末，这或许是“股神”瞅准时机建仓的重要原因。在上周，“股神”巴菲特旗下伯克希尔哈撒韦公布的最新13F持仓报告显示，该机构在第三季度新建仓芯片制造巨头台积电，共计约6006万股，持仓市值达41亿美元，占投资组合比例为1.39%，位列股神重仓股的第十位。伯克希尔哈撒韦13F持仓报告公布后，台积电截至昨日总计涨超10%。在市场观察人士看来，如果这次新建仓是巴菲特个人所主导，那么他建仓台积电的最重要原因可能在于以下两点：一是掌握定价权，二是企业控制成本的能力，而作为全球芯片制造当之无愧龙头的台积电毫无疑问符合这两项商业特征。同时，这两点这也是“股神”多年来选择股票标的的重要判断标准。着眼于更广泛的美股芯片板块，一些分析人士认为，堪称“全球芯片股基准”的费城半导体指数已经定价，甚至过度定价了宏观和行业的悲观预期，因此只要存在利好消息，超跌反弹随时有可能发生。该指数覆盖阿斯麦、台积电、应用材料和高通等处于全球芯片行业上中下游的顶级企业，其走势基本上能够反映出金融市场对于全球芯片股的信心和估值。与美股大盘——标普500指数相比，覆盖全球顶级芯片企业的费城半导体指数周期性远强于标普500指数，往往先于大盘见阶段性顶部，且在行业内下行周期中遭遇市场杀跌的幅度远超同期大盘。智通财经APP注意到，自今年以来，费城半导体指数跌幅高达33%，其中PC芯片三大巨头：英伟达、AMD和英特尔均跌近50%。不过，自10月13日的阶段性低点以来，费城半导体指数已反弹超23%，主要由11月通胀预期降温开启的反弹浪潮所推动，其中英伟达等成分股涨幅也表现相对亮眼。大部分投资者认同上述观点：即费城半导体指数已经定价，甚至过度定价了悲观预期——美联储激进加息和高通胀引发的估值坍塌、行业需求缩减、库存激增。不过，更重要的是芯片行业的基本面可能在明年将迎来重大转折点，历史数据显示股票市场往往会提前至少半年对基本面进行定价，或许这也是“股神”瞅准时机买入台积电的重要原因之一。库存顶部逐渐成型，2023年下半年有望开启复苏周期本文通过对库存展望以及市场预期数据进行分析后，总结出芯片行业有望在2023年Q3被动去库存模式开启，23Q4有望从被动去库存转向主动补库存进而实现量价齐升，又一轮行业景气度上行趋势将开启。按照本文推算的模型，2023Q2正是被动去库存步伐边际放缓的时间点，历史数据显示市场往往提前半年开始定价，正好对应今年第三季度末，这或许是“股神”瞅准时机建仓的重要原因。因此对于一些专注于提前埋伏布局的投资者来说，这可谓是边际回暖效应开始显现的时机，也就是抄底的好时机。市场调研机构此前公布的全球芯片行业库存预期指数显示，2022年Q4行业库存将达到阶段性高水平，对应库存周期中的主动去库存阶段，此阶段往往库存达到峰值，此后开始缩减。再结合韩国统计局公布的半导体库存水平，更明显能够看出库存在Q3处于上升趋势，Q4数据还未公布，但预计有望形成库存弧顶。韩国拥有三星电子、SK海力士两大全球芯片生产龙头，且国家经济发展模式以出口模式为主，因此韩国芯片产品库存能够反映出全球芯片库存趋势。那么库存拐点何时出现?台积电作为芯片制造龙头，对于Fabless模式的顶级芯片公司(如AMD、英伟达和高通等)，以及外包生产的消费电子公司，如苹果等公司的库存水平了如指掌，台积电对于产品库存的展望基本上能够反映整个芯片行业产品库存的趋势，历史数据也多次证明了这一点。台积电的管理层在Q3业绩电话会议上预计，芯片行业库存最早可能在今年第三季度达到顶峰，也可能在第四季度见顶或开始减少，届时将给整个供应链带来一些痛苦。最重要的是，管理层认为产品库存的主动调整期将在 2023上半年结束。华尔街对于行业库存的展望与台积电相差无几。华尔街金融机构摩根士丹利预计，2023年下半年将是半导体开启复苏周期的重要时间点。“我们预计 2023年下半年半导体周期将开启复苏，并建议现在逢低买入优质股票。其中，台积电是我们的首选。”该机构在10月份发布的一份报告中表示。并且将台积电描述为“未来技术的推动者”。该机构还预计，行业库存周期的最糟糕时间点最早出现在今年的第四季度，最晚出现在明年第一季度，而股价往往在库存周期出现拐点之前触底。通过复盘芯片行业近期的复苏周期发现，从主动去库存到主动补库存一般来说是6个季度左右。结合以上数据，本文对于芯片产品库存展望如下：在2023年Q3被动去库存开启，23Q4有望从被动去库存转向主动补库存，又一轮行业景气度上行趋势开启。利好来袭，悲观预期逐渐被消化，市场提前定价基本面拐点根据多家权威机构预测数据，2023年芯片行业繁荣有望延续，不过与2021-2022年上半年由新冠疫情爆发背景下PC设备引发的行业繁荣不同，明年，尤其是明年下半年将是由汽车行业和企业端服务器需求主导的行业繁荣。福特、通用汽车，包括大众和宝马等传统汽车制造商雄心勃勃的电动汽车转型计划也将支撑模拟芯片和MCU等汽车芯片销售前景。本文通过分析得出2023年下半年或将是芯片行业基本面开启新一轮实质性复苏的时间点。但是，美国通胀预期缓解，加上巴菲特最新持仓公布新建仓台积电，催化了市场情绪以及费城半导体指数反弹趋势，使得本应在年底或明年初开启的整体行业股价上行趋势提前开启。目前市场的悲观预期逐渐被消化——具体表现在市场已基本消化Q3 —明年Q1的悲观情景，分析师们对于行业的乐观情绪呈现出边际升温，市场已提前定价行业的基本面拐点。芯片是未来全球各行各业向数字化、智能化经营模式转型，以及人类未来实现万物互联场景的重要底层硬件，因此芯片在未来的总体需求难以出现急剧缩减。根据多家权威性市场调研机构的预测数据，2023年全行业整体市场规模增速可能难以触及2022年的高增长水平，但仍将处于正增长繁荣局面。市场调研机构IDC预测，2023年包含存储芯片领域和IDM+Fabless厂商的芯片市场规模相比2022年将增长大约6%。世界半导体贸易统计组织(WSTS)公布的最新2023年行业展望数据显示，全球半导体市场规模预计到2022年将增长 13.9%，到2023年将再增长4.6%。其中，主要增长领域集中在模拟芯片、逻辑芯片和MCU芯片，这些市场最大贡献者近几年集中在汽车厂商，而主要集中在PC等消费电子领域的存储芯片增速则急剧放缓。这与多数机构的预期一致，即2023年带动芯片行业复苏的主要领域集中在汽车芯片与企业端芯片需求。在高利率环境，加上美联储缩表抽走流动性，消费电子火热需求难以持续，不过全球电动汽车智能化趋势以及企业云转型背景下，汽车芯片和企业服务器芯片需求仍将持续强劲。逻辑芯片应用非常广泛，比如PC、智能手机和企业端服务器等，明年消费电子需求疲软已成市场共识，而企业端对于逻辑芯片的需求持续强劲，这一点从英伟达和AMD对于服务器芯片的乐观展望也能够窥见，AMD在季度业绩会议上预计，服务器市场的增长和对定制化芯片的强劲需求将有助于提振AMD未来业绩。在这一领域，AMD的市场份额已经从不足1%上升到两位数级别，英特尔CEO Pat Gelsinger表示，他预计服务器处理器领域的需求持续火热，激烈竞争将持续下去。据了解，MCU与模拟芯片在不同下游产品占比中，近几年来占比最高的是汽车，其次是工业用途，传感器和功率类芯片同样如此。根据标普全球的预测数据，直到2025年之前全球轻型汽车产量呈现出稳步上升趋势，全球汽车制造龙头大众汽车预计汽车芯片短缺将至少持续到2023年，因此明年汽车芯片量价齐升趋势基本上已确立。再结合上文对于库存周期的展望，本文推断2023年下半年将是芯片行业基本面开启新一轮实质性复苏的关键时间点。因此对于一些专注于提前埋伏布局的投资者来说，这可谓是边际效应开始显现的时机，也就是所谓“抄底”的好时机。或许这也是“股神”瞅准时机买入台积电的重要原因之一。按照本文推算的模型，2023Q2正是被动去库存边际放缓的时间点，市场往往提前半年定价，这可能是“股神”瞅准时机在第三季度建仓的原因之一。市场研究机构Yardeni统计的市场预期数据显示，虽然分析师们对于标普500指数中的IT板块“基于盈利水平的信心指数”仍然严重低于2022年，但近期已经呈现出非常很明显的边际改善趋势，这点与本文对于库存周期的2023下半年行业复苏的展望基本上一致——即市场开始提前定价23H2的复苏预期。标普500 IT板块包含英伟达、AMD和英特尔等费城半导体指数核心成分股，且占据多数权重，分析师们对IT板块预期边际回暖意味着对芯片等IT硬件领域预期同样乐观。仍需警惕的扰动因素就目前形势看来，芯片股仍然处于偏左区域，且倾向于磨底的阶段。目前费城半导体指数的反弹主要因市场对于芯片行业明年将迎来复苏拐点的预期，而该指数一般提前半年开始回暖。通胀预期降温、市场对美联储的转鸽预期升温，以及巴菲特建仓台积电消息出炉更是使得该基准指数的反弹时间点“被迫提前”。但是，需要警惕的是，在美联储激进加息周期背景下，若美国经济明年陷入NBER所定义的“深层次衰退”，企业盈利将面临重大负面冲击，芯片行业巨头或将释放出“去库存”和“业绩不及预期”的信号，届时市场对于明年H1去库存和H2行业复苏的预期也将面临修正，届时费城半导体指数或将再度调整。结合高盛等华尔街大行对于美国经济展望，美国明年全面陷入经济衰退仍然是小概率事件，高盛的经济学家们预计美国未来12个月出现衰退的可能性仅为35%。另外，如果美国接下来的通胀数据仍然不乐观，市场对于美联储“转鸽”预期或将大幅降温，届时费城半导体指数也面临调整。不过，这一扰动因素下的调整幅度可能不会太大，甚至难以跌破上一阶段性低点，主要因为在美联储官员多次发表鹰派讲话后，市场已经很大程度上定价了加息至5%-5.25%的这一预期，除非加息预期实质性升温(目前市场加息预期介乎于4.75%-5.25%)——即预期升温至5.25%以上，否则该指数很难因加息因素再度出现暴跌行情。因此，对于投资者来说，除了关注行业基本面拐点，重点企业的业绩和市场对美联储的加息预期为影响股价的两大非常关键因素。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NVDA":0.9,"TSM":0.9,"ASML":0.9,"AMD":0.9,"INTC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":586,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}