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2023-04-03
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The Nasdaq rose nearly 17% in the first quarter, the best performance in the past three years! Goldman Sachs: The current round of U.S. stock rally will continue until April
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2022-12-01
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","listText":"Good ","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9941438368","repostId":"1113475555","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1113475555","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1680508013,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1113475555?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-04-03 15:46","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"The Nasdaq rose nearly 17% in the first quarter, the best performance in the past three years! Goldman Sachs: The current round of U.S. stock rally will continue until April","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1113475555","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"2023年的一季度在一团和气中划上了句号，全球主要股指多数走高。代表着科技成长股的纳指在今年前三个月累计上涨16.77%，为2020年二季度以来的最大涨幅，同时纳指与道指之间的涨幅差距也是2001年以","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>The first quarter of 2023 came to an end in harmony, with most of the world's major stock indexes rising. The Nasdaq, which represents technology growth stocks, rose by 16.77% in the first three months of this year, the largest increase since the second quarter of 2020. At the same time, the gap between the Nasdaq and the Dow is also the largest since 2001.</p><p>From the perspective of the U.S. stock market, after a brief rebound in January this year, it fell into a sustained downturn. In February, affected by the continued rate hike of the Federal Reserve, the U.S. stock market was bleak. Well-known analysts and market participants have warned investors that the U.S. stock market is in a \"dead zone\". Until early March, the cooling of U.S. inflation and the turmoil in the U.S. banking system, especially the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and the merger of UBS and Credit Suisse, convinced investors that the Federal Reserve would not continue to fight inflation through rate hike, making investors bet on The Federal Reserve's rate hike has reached its peak, so a collective influx of technology stocks that plummeted last year.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e9bb26b44a6f39f16c5b0e2ddceab4b9\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"1369\"/></p><p>In terms of individual stocks, rising gold prices supported South African gold mining giant Goldfields to rise by nearly 50% in March. Since March, the international gold price has risen rapidly, breaking through the integer marks of US $1,900/oz and US $2,000/oz one after another. Despite the recent correction, it is still hovering above $1,900/oz, and its performance is still eye-catching.</p><p>Sea, the \"small Tencent in Southeast Asia\", has increased by nearly 40% this month, and its stock price has hit a new high since September last year. Investment bank Bernstein released a research report raising Sea (SE.US) 's profit forecast, partly due to the continued growth of e-commerce. Analyst Venugopal Garre now expects Sea to post revenue and net income of $11.56 billion and $9 million in 2023, respectively, up from previous expectations of $9.92 billion and a loss of $1.95 billion. He also adjusted his forecast for 2024.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1dce7e3d56894d874faf0525cab0a20e\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"1295\"/></p><p><strong>What do you think of US stocks next?</strong></p><p>Amid multiple negative factors, Goldman Sachs analyst Scott Rubner is not surprised by the recent rebound in U.S. stocks, and predicts that this round of gains may continue until April, because position data shows that hedge funds and retail investors are somewhat overly bearish.</p><p>He noted that stocks tend to move in the opposite direction of what the market generally expects. In late March, the S&P 500 rose 3% despite the second-largest bank failure in U.S. history and another 25 basis point rate hike from the Federal Reserve, as the stock market movement showed.</p><p>Trend-following traders on Wall Street, also known as Commodity Trading Advisors (CTAs), are currently betting that the S&P 500 will fall by as much as about $26 billion, the largest short position since October 2021, according to a recent report released by Rubner.</p><p>Commodity Trading Advisor (CTA) fund, also known as managed futures fund, refers to professional fund managers who use the funds entrusted by clients to independently decide to invest in the global futures market and options market to obtain returns, and will also charge corresponding management fees.</p><p>This excessively bearish position leads Rubner to believe that the U.S. stock market's rally will continue into April.</p><p>\"There's too much going on on the'macro 'front to have confidence in trading, but I'm bullish on stocks in April,\" he added.</p><p>Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist at Carson Group, a market consulting firm, agrees with Rubner, especially considering that U.S. stocks are entering one of the best periods in a four-year presidential term in history.</p><p>\"Historically, the second quarter of the year before the election averaged 4.8%, and it could be higher 72% of the time in history. Given the overall negative sentiment, the economy continues to challenge skeptics, and this positive seasonal factor, we are open to a continuation of the rebound from last October's low,\" he said.</p><p>In addition, Detrick also emphasized that since 1950, in April of the year before the election, the U.S. stock market has a 94% probability of rising.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The Nasdaq rose nearly 17% in the first quarter, the best performance in the past three years! Goldman Sachs: The current round of U.S. stock rally will continue until April</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe Nasdaq rose nearly 17% in the first quarter, the best performance in the past three years! Goldman Sachs: The current round of U.S. stock rally will continue until April\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2023-04-03 15:46</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>The first quarter of 2023 came to an end in harmony, with most of the world's major stock indexes rising. The Nasdaq, which represents technology growth stocks, rose by 16.77% in the first three months of this year, the largest increase since the second quarter of 2020. At the same time, the gap between the Nasdaq and the Dow is also the largest since 2001.</p><p>From the perspective of the U.S. stock market, after a brief rebound in January this year, it fell into a sustained downturn. In February, affected by the continued rate hike of the Federal Reserve, the U.S. stock market was bleak. Well-known analysts and market participants have warned investors that the U.S. stock market is in a \"dead zone\". Until early March, the cooling of U.S. inflation and the turmoil in the U.S. banking system, especially the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and the merger of UBS and Credit Suisse, convinced investors that the Federal Reserve would not continue to fight inflation through rate hike, making investors bet on The Federal Reserve's rate hike has reached its peak, so a collective influx of technology stocks that plummeted last year.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e9bb26b44a6f39f16c5b0e2ddceab4b9\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"1369\"/></p><p>In terms of individual stocks, rising gold prices supported South African gold mining giant Goldfields to rise by nearly 50% in March. Since March, the international gold price has risen rapidly, breaking through the integer marks of US $1,900/oz and US $2,000/oz one after another. Despite the recent correction, it is still hovering above $1,900/oz, and its performance is still eye-catching.</p><p>Sea, the \"small Tencent in Southeast Asia\", has increased by nearly 40% this month, and its stock price has hit a new high since September last year. Investment bank Bernstein released a research report raising Sea (SE.US) 's profit forecast, partly due to the continued growth of e-commerce. Analyst Venugopal Garre now expects Sea to post revenue and net income of $11.56 billion and $9 million in 2023, respectively, up from previous expectations of $9.92 billion and a loss of $1.95 billion. He also adjusted his forecast for 2024.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1dce7e3d56894d874faf0525cab0a20e\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"1295\"/></p><p><strong>What do you think of US stocks next?</strong></p><p>Amid multiple negative factors, Goldman Sachs analyst Scott Rubner is not surprised by the recent rebound in U.S. stocks, and predicts that this round of gains may continue until April, because position data shows that hedge funds and retail investors are somewhat overly bearish.</p><p>He noted that stocks tend to move in the opposite direction of what the market generally expects. In late March, the S&P 500 rose 3% despite the second-largest bank failure in U.S. history and another 25 basis point rate hike from the Federal Reserve, as the stock market movement showed.</p><p>Trend-following traders on Wall Street, also known as Commodity Trading Advisors (CTAs), are currently betting that the S&P 500 will fall by as much as about $26 billion, the largest short position since October 2021, according to a recent report released by Rubner.</p><p>Commodity Trading Advisor (CTA) fund, also known as managed futures fund, refers to professional fund managers who use the funds entrusted by clients to independently decide to invest in the global futures market and options market to obtain returns, and will also charge corresponding management fees.</p><p>This excessively bearish position leads Rubner to believe that the U.S. stock market's rally will continue into April.</p><p>\"There's too much going on on the'macro 'front to have confidence in trading, but I'm bullish on stocks in April,\" he added.</p><p>Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist at Carson Group, a market consulting firm, agrees with Rubner, especially considering that U.S. stocks are entering one of the best periods in a four-year presidential term in history.</p><p>\"Historically, the second quarter of the year before the election averaged 4.8%, and it could be higher 72% of the time in history. Given the overall negative sentiment, the economy continues to challenge skeptics, and this positive seasonal factor, we are open to a continuation of the rebound from last October's low,\" he said.</p><p>In addition, Detrick also emphasized that since 1950, in April of the year before the election, the U.S. stock market has a 94% probability of rising.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f6ec6e99c0c8b9feb7f296b78c65a54","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1113475555","content_text":"2023年的一季度在一团和气中划上了句号，全球主要股指多数走高。代表着科技成长股的纳指在今年前三个月累计上涨16.77%，为2020年二季度以来的最大涨幅，同时纳指与道指之间的涨幅差距也是2001年以来最大的。从美股大盘来看，今年1月在短暂反弹后陷入了持续的低迷，2月受美联储持续加息影响，美股愁云惨淡，知名分析师和市场人士纷纷警告投资者美股陷入“死亡区”。直到3月初，美国通胀降温以及美国银行系统的动荡，特别是硅谷银行的倒闭，以及瑞银和瑞信的合并，让投资者相信美联储不会继续通过加息来对抗通胀，让投资者纷纷押注美联储加息已到顶点，于是集体涌入去年大跌的科技股。个股方面，一路攀升的金价力撑南非金矿巨头金田3月累涨近50%。3月份以来，国际金价快速上行，接连突破1900美元/盎司、2000美元/盎司的整数关口。尽管近期有所回调，但仍在1900美元/盎司以上徘徊，表现依旧抢眼。“东南亚小腾讯”Sea本月累计涨幅接近40%，股价创自去年9月以来新高。投行Bernstein发布研报，提高Sea(SE.US)的盈利预期，部分原因是电子商务的持续增长。分析师Venugopal Garre目前预计，Sea2023年的营收和净利润将分别为115.6亿美元和900万美元，高于此前预期的99.2亿美元和亏损19.5亿美元。他还调整了对2024年的预测。美股接下来怎么看？在多重利空因素下，高盛分析师Scott Rubner却对美股近期的反弹并不感到意外，而且预计本轮涨势可能会延续到4月，因为仓位数据显示，对冲基金和散户投资者有些过度看空。他指出，股市的走势往往与市场普遍预期的走势相反。3月下旬，尽管美国发生了历史上第二大银行倒闭，美联储也再次加息25个基点，但标准普尔500指数仍上涨了3%，股市的走势就体现了这一点。根据Rubner最新发布的一份报告，华尔街的趋势跟踪交易员，也被称为大宗商品交易顾问（CTA），目前押注标普500指数将下跌的头寸高达260亿美元左右，这是自2021年10月以来最大的空头头寸。商品交易顾问（CTA）基金，也称作管理期货基金，它是指由专业的资金管理人运用客户委托的资金自主决定投资于全球期货市场和期权市场以获得回报，同时也会收取相应管理费用。这种过度看空的仓位让Rubner相信，美国股市的涨势将延续到4月份。“‘宏观’方面发生的事情太多，无法对交易抱有信心，但我看好4月股市，”他补充说。市场咨询公司Carson Group首席市场策略师Ryan Detrick也同意Rubner的看法，尤其是考虑到美国股市正在进入历史上四年总统任期内表现最好的时期之一。“从历史上看，大选前一年的第二季度平均上涨4.8%，历史上72%的时间里还可更高。鉴于整体负面情绪，经济继续挑战怀疑论者，以及这种积极的季节性因素，我们对从去年10月低点反弹的延续持开放态度，”他表示。除此之外，Detrick还强调，自1950年以来，在大选前一年的4月份，美国股市有94%的概率是上涨的。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1946,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9962472725,"gmtCreate":1669842093667,"gmtModify":1676538253083,"author":{"id":"3573199977906635","authorId":"3573199977906635","name":"1M4U6488","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/a6f47f80a5359edd0811af21da8349be","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573199977906635","idStr":"3573199977906635"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$ </a>👍","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$ </a>👍","text":"$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 👍","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/f6795222f5bfd60132f9319003daef55","width":"1125","height":"2166"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9962472725","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2148,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9934597452,"gmtCreate":1663281648476,"gmtModify":1676537240745,"author":{"id":"3573199977906635","authorId":"3573199977906635","name":"1M4U6488","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/a6f47f80a5359edd0811af21da8349be","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573199977906635","idStr":"3573199977906635"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"good ","listText":"good ","text":"good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9934597452","repostId":"1180801556","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2432,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":9934597452,"gmtCreate":1663281648476,"gmtModify":1676537240745,"author":{"id":"3573199977906635","authorId":"3573199977906635","name":"1M4U6488","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/a6f47f80a5359edd0811af21da8349be","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573199977906635","authorIdStr":"3573199977906635"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"good ","listText":"good ","text":"good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9934597452","repostId":"1180801556","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1180801556","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1663246147,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1180801556?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-09-15 20:49","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Nvidia and Amazon were cut by more than 40%! Analysts cut U.S. stocks' third-quarter earnings forecasts","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1180801556","media":"Wind资讯","summary":"眼下距离下一个美股财报季已经不远。鉴于通胀高企、经济放缓等宏观不利因素，分析师下调了对第三季度企业盈利的预期，像英伟达和亚马逊这样的科技公司调降幅度尤为明显。据Barron's，瑞士信贷的数据显示，分","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>The next U.S. stock earnings season is not far away. In light of macro headwinds such as high inflation and a slowing economy, analysts have lowered their expectations for third-quarter corporate earnings, especially by technology companies like Nvidia and Amazon.</p><p>According to Barron's, Credit Suisse data showed that analyst estimates for overall third-quarter earnings per share (EPS) of s&P 500 companies have fallen 5.5% in the past two months or so. High inflation has eroded consumer demand, company costs have risen faster than consumer prices, putting pressure on profit margins, and soaring prices have forced the Federal Reserve to make aggressive rate hike to fight inflation, raising the possibility of a future economic slowdown or even a recession. These have become reasons for analysts to lower their expectations.</p><p>The pain of shrinking profits is particularly acute in the tech sector. Earnings estimates for the sector in the third quarter have fallen by about 11% over the past few months, with earnings estimates for the semiconductor sector falling by about 15%, with chip manufacturing giant Nvidia constituting a drag.</p><p>Analysts' consensus estimate for Nvidia's EPS fell 48%. With the company's market cap of more than $300 billion, its earnings are weighted enough to drag down overall forecasts for the entire semiconductor industry.</p><p>Slumping consumer demand is hurting Nvidia. The company said at the end of August that a weakening macroeconomic environment had an impact on its gaming chip sales. Nvidia expects sales of about $5.9 billion for the current fiscal quarter, $1 billion below analysts' estimates. Barron's noted that analysts have lowered their sales estimates to management's guidance. In the last fiscal quarter that ended in July, Nvidia had sales of $6.7 billion. The company's shares are down more than 55% so far this year.</p><p>E-commerce is another tech sector that has encountered challenges. Analysts' earnings estimates for e-commerce have fallen by about 37%, partly due to weak consumption.</p><p>Amazon's recent challenges have also hurt earnings expectations for the broader online retail business, with analysts already cutting quarterly profit forecasts by about 43%.</p><p>Goldman Sachs analysts lowered their third-quarter sales forecast for Amazon from $128.5 billion to $127.6 billion, and lowered their operating margin forecast from 3.9% to 2.6%. At the same time, they also lowered their EPS forecast from 37 cents to 22 cents. Analysts note that rising labor costs, freight and energy costs are eating into margins. Amazon shares are down nearly 23% year to date.</p><p>Given the uncertainty surrounding the economic environment and Federal Reserve policy, the beating for tech stocks may not be over yet.</p><p>Eric Sheridan, managing director of Goldman Sachs, told Yahoo Finance at a weekly conference this week: \"Essentially, technology stocks are a high-risk investment class. When people are unsure about inflation, what the macroeconomic environment is like, and what the Fed will do When there is something, uncertainty creates. Once the risk arises, the stock is sold off.\"</p><p>Sheridan noted that the goals of all tech investors remain focused on interest rates and the economic outlook. The Fed's accelerated rate hike to curb inflation will push up funding costs for many tech companies that rely on new funding to spur growth. Meanwhile, the economy could slow faster than expected as interest rates rise faster and put more pressure on tech valuations, which are still elevated.</p><p>However, the optimistic view is that given that many technology stocks have been hit hard and the stock price has reflected the decline in earnings expectations, if the actual results are better than the downgraded expectations, it may boost the stock price. \"The biggest market asset is that investors have low expectations and are ready for bad news,\" said Keith Lerner, co-chief investment officer at Truist.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"wind","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Nvidia and Amazon were cut by more than 40%! Analysts cut U.S. stocks' third-quarter earnings forecasts</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNvidia and Amazon were cut by more than 40%! Analysts cut U.S. stocks' third-quarter earnings forecasts\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Wind资讯</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-09-15 20:49</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>The next U.S. stock earnings season is not far away. In light of macro headwinds such as high inflation and a slowing economy, analysts have lowered their expectations for third-quarter corporate earnings, especially by technology companies like Nvidia and Amazon.</p><p>According to Barron's, Credit Suisse data showed that analyst estimates for overall third-quarter earnings per share (EPS) of s&P 500 companies have fallen 5.5% in the past two months or so. High inflation has eroded consumer demand, company costs have risen faster than consumer prices, putting pressure on profit margins, and soaring prices have forced the Federal Reserve to make aggressive rate hike to fight inflation, raising the possibility of a future economic slowdown or even a recession. These have become reasons for analysts to lower their expectations.</p><p>The pain of shrinking profits is particularly acute in the tech sector. Earnings estimates for the sector in the third quarter have fallen by about 11% over the past few months, with earnings estimates for the semiconductor sector falling by about 15%, with chip manufacturing giant Nvidia constituting a drag.</p><p>Analysts' consensus estimate for Nvidia's EPS fell 48%. With the company's market cap of more than $300 billion, its earnings are weighted enough to drag down overall forecasts for the entire semiconductor industry.</p><p>Slumping consumer demand is hurting Nvidia. The company said at the end of August that a weakening macroeconomic environment had an impact on its gaming chip sales. Nvidia expects sales of about $5.9 billion for the current fiscal quarter, $1 billion below analysts' estimates. Barron's noted that analysts have lowered their sales estimates to management's guidance. In the last fiscal quarter that ended in July, Nvidia had sales of $6.7 billion. The company's shares are down more than 55% so far this year.</p><p>E-commerce is another tech sector that has encountered challenges. Analysts' earnings estimates for e-commerce have fallen by about 37%, partly due to weak consumption.</p><p>Amazon's recent challenges have also hurt earnings expectations for the broader online retail business, with analysts already cutting quarterly profit forecasts by about 43%.</p><p>Goldman Sachs analysts lowered their third-quarter sales forecast for Amazon from $128.5 billion to $127.6 billion, and lowered their operating margin forecast from 3.9% to 2.6%. At the same time, they also lowered their EPS forecast from 37 cents to 22 cents. Analysts note that rising labor costs, freight and energy costs are eating into margins. Amazon shares are down nearly 23% year to date.</p><p>Given the uncertainty surrounding the economic environment and Federal Reserve policy, the beating for tech stocks may not be over yet.</p><p>Eric Sheridan, managing director of Goldman Sachs, told Yahoo Finance at a weekly conference this week: \"Essentially, technology stocks are a high-risk investment class. When people are unsure about inflation, what the macroeconomic environment is like, and what the Fed will do When there is something, uncertainty creates. Once the risk arises, the stock is sold off.\"</p><p>Sheridan noted that the goals of all tech investors remain focused on interest rates and the economic outlook. The Fed's accelerated rate hike to curb inflation will push up funding costs for many tech companies that rely on new funding to spur growth. Meanwhile, the economy could slow faster than expected as interest rates rise faster and put more pressure on tech valuations, which are still elevated.</p><p>However, the optimistic view is that given that many technology stocks have been hit hard and the stock price has reflected the decline in earnings expectations, if the actual results are better than the downgraded expectations, it may boost the stock price. \"The biggest market asset is that investors have low expectations and are ready for bad news,\" said Keith Lerner, co-chief investment officer at Truist.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://t.wind.com.cn/mobwftweb/M/news.html?show=wft&shareCode=c28dc1e9ca8e30081236df34b0f14839&code=E4BA211334E2&newsopenstyle=wind&lan=cn&device=ios&fontsize=normal&related=true&version=22.7.5#/A226D2C867D7E1BC6D441DCACE59CE31\">Wind资讯</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/347452cc99fb488c45ccd900fcf3aa20","relate_stocks":{"NVDA":"英伟达"},"source_url":"https://t.wind.com.cn/mobwftweb/M/news.html?show=wft&shareCode=c28dc1e9ca8e30081236df34b0f14839&code=E4BA211334E2&newsopenstyle=wind&lan=cn&device=ios&fontsize=normal&related=true&version=22.7.5#/A226D2C867D7E1BC6D441DCACE59CE31","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1180801556","content_text":"眼下距离下一个美股财报季已经不远。鉴于通胀高企、经济放缓等宏观不利因素，分析师下调了对第三季度企业盈利的预期，像英伟达和亚马逊这样的科技公司调降幅度尤为明显。据Barron's，瑞士信贷的数据显示，分析师对标普500指数成分股公司第三季度总体每股收益（EPS）的预估在过去两个月左右的时间里下降了5.5%。通胀居高不下侵蚀消费者需求，公司成本上涨速度超过消费者价格对利润率造成压力，同时，物价飙升迫使美联储大幅加息以抗击通胀，加大了未来经济放缓甚至陷入衰退的可能性，这些都成为分析师调降预期的理由。利润减少的痛苦在科技行业尤为严重。该行业第三季度的盈利预期在过去几个月里下降了约11%，其中半导体行业的盈利预期下降了约15%，芯片制造巨头英伟达构成拖累。分析师对英伟达EPS的普遍预期大降48%。凭借该公司超过3000亿美元的市值，其盈利的权重足以拖累对整个半导体行业的整体预测。消费者需求下滑正在损害英伟达。该公司在8月底表示，宏观经济环境趋弱对其游戏芯片销售造成影响。英伟达预计当前财季的销售额约为59亿美元，比分析师的预期低10亿美元。Barron's指出，分析师已将销售预期下调至管理层的指导水平。在截至7月的上一个财季，英伟达的销售额为67亿美元。今年以来，该公司股价下跌超过55%。电子商务是另一个遭遇挑战的科技领域。分析师对电商的盈利预期已下降约37%，部分原因是消费疲软。亚马逊最近遇到的挑战也损及了对更广泛的在线零售业务的盈利预期，分析师已将季度利润预测下调约43%。高盛分析师将亚马逊第三季度销售额预期从1285亿美元下调至1276亿美元，并将营业利润率预期从3.9%下调至2.6%，同时，还将EPS预期从37美分下调至22美分。分析师指出，不断上涨的劳动力成本、运费和能源成本正在蚕食利润率。亚马逊股价今年迄今下跌近23%。考虑到经济环境和美联储政策的不确定性，科技股遭受的打击可能尚未结束。高盛董事总经理Eric Sheridan在本周一次会议上对雅虎财经表示：“从本质上讲，科技股是一种高风险的投资类别。当人们不确定通胀率、宏观经济环境如何、美联储会做些什么时，都会产生不确定性。一旦风险出现，股票就被抛售。”Sheridan指出，所有科技投资者的目标仍然集中在利率和经济前景上。美联储加快加息步伐以遏制通胀，会推高许多依靠新资金来刺激增长的科技公司的融资成本。与此同时，随着利率更快上升，经济放缓速度可能快于预期，并给仍处高位的科技股估值带来更大压力。不过，乐观的观点认为，鉴于许多科技股已经受到重创，股价已反映盈利预期的下降，因此，如果实际业绩结果好于调降后的预期，可能会提振股价。Truist联席首席投资官Keith Lerner表示：“最大的市场资产是投资者的预期很低，而且已经为坏消息做好了准备。”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NVDA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2432,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9941438368,"gmtCreate":1680517800555,"gmtModify":1680517804451,"author":{"id":"3573199977906635","authorId":"3573199977906635","name":"1M4U6488","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/a6f47f80a5359edd0811af21da8349be","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573199977906635","authorIdStr":"3573199977906635"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good ","listText":"Good ","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9941438368","repostId":"1113475555","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1113475555","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1680508013,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1113475555?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-04-03 15:46","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"The Nasdaq rose nearly 17% in the first quarter, the best performance in the past three years! Goldman Sachs: The current round of U.S. stock rally will continue until April","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1113475555","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"2023年的一季度在一团和气中划上了句号，全球主要股指多数走高。代表着科技成长股的纳指在今年前三个月累计上涨16.77%，为2020年二季度以来的最大涨幅，同时纳指与道指之间的涨幅差距也是2001年以","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>The first quarter of 2023 came to an end in harmony, with most of the world's major stock indexes rising. The Nasdaq, which represents technology growth stocks, rose by 16.77% in the first three months of this year, the largest increase since the second quarter of 2020. At the same time, the gap between the Nasdaq and the Dow is also the largest since 2001.</p><p>From the perspective of the U.S. stock market, after a brief rebound in January this year, it fell into a sustained downturn. In February, affected by the continued rate hike of the Federal Reserve, the U.S. stock market was bleak. Well-known analysts and market participants have warned investors that the U.S. stock market is in a \"dead zone\". Until early March, the cooling of U.S. inflation and the turmoil in the U.S. banking system, especially the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and the merger of UBS and Credit Suisse, convinced investors that the Federal Reserve would not continue to fight inflation through rate hike, making investors bet on The Federal Reserve's rate hike has reached its peak, so a collective influx of technology stocks that plummeted last year.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e9bb26b44a6f39f16c5b0e2ddceab4b9\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"1369\"/></p><p>In terms of individual stocks, rising gold prices supported South African gold mining giant Goldfields to rise by nearly 50% in March. Since March, the international gold price has risen rapidly, breaking through the integer marks of US $1,900/oz and US $2,000/oz one after another. Despite the recent correction, it is still hovering above $1,900/oz, and its performance is still eye-catching.</p><p>Sea, the \"small Tencent in Southeast Asia\", has increased by nearly 40% this month, and its stock price has hit a new high since September last year. Investment bank Bernstein released a research report raising Sea (SE.US) 's profit forecast, partly due to the continued growth of e-commerce. Analyst Venugopal Garre now expects Sea to post revenue and net income of $11.56 billion and $9 million in 2023, respectively, up from previous expectations of $9.92 billion and a loss of $1.95 billion. He also adjusted his forecast for 2024.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1dce7e3d56894d874faf0525cab0a20e\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"1295\"/></p><p><strong>What do you think of US stocks next?</strong></p><p>Amid multiple negative factors, Goldman Sachs analyst Scott Rubner is not surprised by the recent rebound in U.S. stocks, and predicts that this round of gains may continue until April, because position data shows that hedge funds and retail investors are somewhat overly bearish.</p><p>He noted that stocks tend to move in the opposite direction of what the market generally expects. In late March, the S&P 500 rose 3% despite the second-largest bank failure in U.S. history and another 25 basis point rate hike from the Federal Reserve, as the stock market movement showed.</p><p>Trend-following traders on Wall Street, also known as Commodity Trading Advisors (CTAs), are currently betting that the S&P 500 will fall by as much as about $26 billion, the largest short position since October 2021, according to a recent report released by Rubner.</p><p>Commodity Trading Advisor (CTA) fund, also known as managed futures fund, refers to professional fund managers who use the funds entrusted by clients to independently decide to invest in the global futures market and options market to obtain returns, and will also charge corresponding management fees.</p><p>This excessively bearish position leads Rubner to believe that the U.S. stock market's rally will continue into April.</p><p>\"There's too much going on on the'macro 'front to have confidence in trading, but I'm bullish on stocks in April,\" he added.</p><p>Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist at Carson Group, a market consulting firm, agrees with Rubner, especially considering that U.S. stocks are entering one of the best periods in a four-year presidential term in history.</p><p>\"Historically, the second quarter of the year before the election averaged 4.8%, and it could be higher 72% of the time in history. Given the overall negative sentiment, the economy continues to challenge skeptics, and this positive seasonal factor, we are open to a continuation of the rebound from last October's low,\" he said.</p><p>In addition, Detrick also emphasized that since 1950, in April of the year before the election, the U.S. stock market has a 94% probability of rising.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The Nasdaq rose nearly 17% in the first quarter, the best performance in the past three years! Goldman Sachs: The current round of U.S. stock rally will continue until April</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe Nasdaq rose nearly 17% in the first quarter, the best performance in the past three years! Goldman Sachs: The current round of U.S. stock rally will continue until April\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2023-04-03 15:46</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>The first quarter of 2023 came to an end in harmony, with most of the world's major stock indexes rising. The Nasdaq, which represents technology growth stocks, rose by 16.77% in the first three months of this year, the largest increase since the second quarter of 2020. At the same time, the gap between the Nasdaq and the Dow is also the largest since 2001.</p><p>From the perspective of the U.S. stock market, after a brief rebound in January this year, it fell into a sustained downturn. In February, affected by the continued rate hike of the Federal Reserve, the U.S. stock market was bleak. Well-known analysts and market participants have warned investors that the U.S. stock market is in a \"dead zone\". Until early March, the cooling of U.S. inflation and the turmoil in the U.S. banking system, especially the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and the merger of UBS and Credit Suisse, convinced investors that the Federal Reserve would not continue to fight inflation through rate hike, making investors bet on The Federal Reserve's rate hike has reached its peak, so a collective influx of technology stocks that plummeted last year.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e9bb26b44a6f39f16c5b0e2ddceab4b9\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"1369\"/></p><p>In terms of individual stocks, rising gold prices supported South African gold mining giant Goldfields to rise by nearly 50% in March. Since March, the international gold price has risen rapidly, breaking through the integer marks of US $1,900/oz and US $2,000/oz one after another. Despite the recent correction, it is still hovering above $1,900/oz, and its performance is still eye-catching.</p><p>Sea, the \"small Tencent in Southeast Asia\", has increased by nearly 40% this month, and its stock price has hit a new high since September last year. Investment bank Bernstein released a research report raising Sea (SE.US) 's profit forecast, partly due to the continued growth of e-commerce. Analyst Venugopal Garre now expects Sea to post revenue and net income of $11.56 billion and $9 million in 2023, respectively, up from previous expectations of $9.92 billion and a loss of $1.95 billion. He also adjusted his forecast for 2024.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1dce7e3d56894d874faf0525cab0a20e\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"1295\"/></p><p><strong>What do you think of US stocks next?</strong></p><p>Amid multiple negative factors, Goldman Sachs analyst Scott Rubner is not surprised by the recent rebound in U.S. stocks, and predicts that this round of gains may continue until April, because position data shows that hedge funds and retail investors are somewhat overly bearish.</p><p>He noted that stocks tend to move in the opposite direction of what the market generally expects. In late March, the S&P 500 rose 3% despite the second-largest bank failure in U.S. history and another 25 basis point rate hike from the Federal Reserve, as the stock market movement showed.</p><p>Trend-following traders on Wall Street, also known as Commodity Trading Advisors (CTAs), are currently betting that the S&P 500 will fall by as much as about $26 billion, the largest short position since October 2021, according to a recent report released by Rubner.</p><p>Commodity Trading Advisor (CTA) fund, also known as managed futures fund, refers to professional fund managers who use the funds entrusted by clients to independently decide to invest in the global futures market and options market to obtain returns, and will also charge corresponding management fees.</p><p>This excessively bearish position leads Rubner to believe that the U.S. stock market's rally will continue into April.</p><p>\"There's too much going on on the'macro 'front to have confidence in trading, but I'm bullish on stocks in April,\" he added.</p><p>Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist at Carson Group, a market consulting firm, agrees with Rubner, especially considering that U.S. stocks are entering one of the best periods in a four-year presidential term in history.</p><p>\"Historically, the second quarter of the year before the election averaged 4.8%, and it could be higher 72% of the time in history. Given the overall negative sentiment, the economy continues to challenge skeptics, and this positive seasonal factor, we are open to a continuation of the rebound from last October's low,\" he said.</p><p>In addition, Detrick also emphasized that since 1950, in April of the year before the election, the U.S. stock market has a 94% probability of rising.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f6ec6e99c0c8b9feb7f296b78c65a54","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1113475555","content_text":"2023年的一季度在一团和气中划上了句号，全球主要股指多数走高。代表着科技成长股的纳指在今年前三个月累计上涨16.77%，为2020年二季度以来的最大涨幅，同时纳指与道指之间的涨幅差距也是2001年以来最大的。从美股大盘来看，今年1月在短暂反弹后陷入了持续的低迷，2月受美联储持续加息影响，美股愁云惨淡，知名分析师和市场人士纷纷警告投资者美股陷入“死亡区”。直到3月初，美国通胀降温以及美国银行系统的动荡，特别是硅谷银行的倒闭，以及瑞银和瑞信的合并，让投资者相信美联储不会继续通过加息来对抗通胀，让投资者纷纷押注美联储加息已到顶点，于是集体涌入去年大跌的科技股。个股方面，一路攀升的金价力撑南非金矿巨头金田3月累涨近50%。3月份以来，国际金价快速上行，接连突破1900美元/盎司、2000美元/盎司的整数关口。尽管近期有所回调，但仍在1900美元/盎司以上徘徊，表现依旧抢眼。“东南亚小腾讯”Sea本月累计涨幅接近40%，股价创自去年9月以来新高。投行Bernstein发布研报，提高Sea(SE.US)的盈利预期，部分原因是电子商务的持续增长。分析师Venugopal Garre目前预计，Sea2023年的营收和净利润将分别为115.6亿美元和900万美元，高于此前预期的99.2亿美元和亏损19.5亿美元。他还调整了对2024年的预测。美股接下来怎么看？在多重利空因素下，高盛分析师Scott Rubner却对美股近期的反弹并不感到意外，而且预计本轮涨势可能会延续到4月，因为仓位数据显示，对冲基金和散户投资者有些过度看空。他指出，股市的走势往往与市场普遍预期的走势相反。3月下旬，尽管美国发生了历史上第二大银行倒闭，美联储也再次加息25个基点，但标准普尔500指数仍上涨了3%，股市的走势就体现了这一点。根据Rubner最新发布的一份报告，华尔街的趋势跟踪交易员，也被称为大宗商品交易顾问（CTA），目前押注标普500指数将下跌的头寸高达260亿美元左右，这是自2021年10月以来最大的空头头寸。商品交易顾问（CTA）基金，也称作管理期货基金，它是指由专业的资金管理人运用客户委托的资金自主决定投资于全球期货市场和期权市场以获得回报，同时也会收取相应管理费用。这种过度看空的仓位让Rubner相信，美国股市的涨势将延续到4月份。“‘宏观’方面发生的事情太多，无法对交易抱有信心，但我看好4月股市，”他补充说。市场咨询公司Carson Group首席市场策略师Ryan Detrick也同意Rubner的看法，尤其是考虑到美国股市正在进入历史上四年总统任期内表现最好的时期之一。“从历史上看，大选前一年的第二季度平均上涨4.8%，历史上72%的时间里还可更高。鉴于整体负面情绪，经济继续挑战怀疑论者，以及这种积极的季节性因素，我们对从去年10月低点反弹的延续持开放态度，”他表示。除此之外，Detrick还强调，自1950年以来，在大选前一年的4月份，美国股市有94%的概率是上涨的。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1946,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9962472725,"gmtCreate":1669842093667,"gmtModify":1676538253083,"author":{"id":"3573199977906635","authorId":"3573199977906635","name":"1M4U6488","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/a6f47f80a5359edd0811af21da8349be","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573199977906635","authorIdStr":"3573199977906635"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$ </a>👍","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$ </a>👍","text":"$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 👍","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/f6795222f5bfd60132f9319003daef55","width":"1125","height":"2166"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9962472725","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2148,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}