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01-30

Never waste your precious time on these kind stupid article. Totally nonsense. Tell something we don't know.

Nvidia Bearish Momentum Explained

01-12

Bull shit

4 Underappreciated Risks Facing Nvidia Bulls

2024-12-17

Can not believe this kind shit article can be published. Who is the author?

Nvidia: This Could Be The Top

2024-12-03

Who is ‘Trend Force'? Only Chidren believe in this kind stupid news.

Production Hurdles for Nvidia's GB200 Spark Rumors of Microsoft Cutting Orders

2024-11-22

Now we know why democrats lost the election.

The DOJ-Google Fight Comes Into Focus. Why It's Finally Hitting Alphabet's Stock

2024-11-21

nonsense

Nvidia: Triple Play Not Enough To Justify $3.6T Valuation (Rating Downgrade)

2024-10-31

Low level

Nvidia: Forward Earnings Looking More Uncertain

2024-09-27

Sucker, did you see MU earning？can't believe such low level article was here.

Nvidia Is Showing Major Red Flags On The Demand Side

2024-09-23

Take a look at what this guy say about NVDA, he is just a joke. Never listen to him.

Microsoft’s Stock Hit with a Rare Downgrade. Why This Analyst Says Stop Buying

2024-09-22

Brain-damaged articles

Sorry, the Fed Can't Save Us From a Bear Market

2024-09-18

Another liar.

Billionaire Hedge Fund Manager Says He Would Pull His Money from the Market If Harris Wins Election

2024-09-16

The writer knows nothing

Nvidia's Stock Rally Pauses. A New Generation of Data Centers Is Arriving

2024-09-13

u know ZERO. Wrote something worth reading.

Nvidia: The Price Is Too High

2024-09-09

Nonsense

Nvidia’s Dominance Could Be Ending, Citi Says. The Stock Rises Anyway

2024-09-05

May NVDA investors sue Bloomberg on the false news? Bloomberg sucks! Whom we can trust?

Nvidia, Tesla Shares Rise Nearly 1% in Premarket Trading

2024-09-04

may drop? Why we need waste time to read this article? [Weak] [Weak]

Broadcom's Stock May Drop Sharply Following Results

2024-09-04

Share your opinion about this news…

Nvidia Stock Is Selling Off: It's Not Because Of Blackwell

2024-09-03

Tell something we don't know. waste of time.

Stocks Typically Suffer in September. Why Markets Face More Pain This Year

2024-08-30

[Weak] [Weak] [Weak]

Advanced Micro Devices: ZT Acquisition Is Bad News - Still Sell

2024-08-09

Nonsense

BofA’s Hartnett Says Market Selloff Yet to Breach Key Levels

Go to Tiger App to see more news

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Totally nonsense. Tell something we don't know.","listText":"Never waste your precious time on these kind stupid article. Totally nonsense. Tell something we don't know.","text":"Never waste your precious time on these kind stupid article. Totally nonsense. Tell something we don't know.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/398140816592984","repostId":"1101465849","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1101465849","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1738224612,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1101465849?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2025-01-30 16:10","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Nvidia Bearish Momentum Explained","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1101465849","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryNVIDIA’s meteoric rise has been fueled by the generative AI boom, but history shows that tech hype cycles often result in overcapacity.15% of its Q3 2024 revenue came from China and Hong Kong. ","content":"<html><head></head><body><h2 id=\"id_2576559629\">Summary</h2><ul style=\"\"><li><p>NVIDIA’s meteoric rise has been fueled by the generative AI boom, but history shows that tech hype cycles often result in overcapacity.</p></li><li><p>15% of its Q3 2024 revenue came from China and Hong Kong. Tightened U.S. export restrictions on advanced chips to China could shrink this critical market further. If restrictions extend to Blackwell chips, this could limit growth and lead to unsold inventory.</p></li><li><p>NVDA stock trades at a forward P/S ratio far above industry peers, priced as if AI adoption will grow exponentially for years. This valuation leaves little room for error.</p></li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/f8271f5218e30171f478337709702edd\" alt=\"JHVEPhoto\" title=\"JHVEPhoto\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"500\"/><span>JHVEPhoto</span></p><p>The market is testing a new narrative for NVIDIA. This will be a bull and bear ferocious fight, but the current bear thinking is the following:</p><h2 id=\"id_357161106\">1. Overcapacity Risk in Semiconductors: The AI Bubble Narrative</h2><p><strong>Key Issue: Overinvestment Based on Overhyped Demand</strong></p><p>NVIDIA’s meteoric rise has been fueled by the generative AI boom, but history shows that tech hype cycles often result in overcapacity (e.g., the dot-com bubble, cryptocurrency mining GPUs).</p><p>Revenue from Data Center GPUs accounted for 87% of total revenue in Q3 FY2024, making NVIDIA heavily reliant on AI demand continuing indefinitely.</p><p>A 10% slowdown in AI investments or hyperscaler spending (e.g., Microsoft (MSFT), Amazon (AMZN), Google (GOOG, GOOGL)) could drastically impact NVIDIA’s revenue.</p><p>Overcommitted to Supply: NVIDIA has locked in $28.9 billion in supply commitments, expecting ongoing high demand for its Hopper and Blackwell architectures.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/f8d33a2cf85359c91492e53b0a25cd64\" alt=\"Nvidia purchase obligations\" title=\"Nvidia purchase obligations\" tg-width=\"940\" tg-height=\"173\"/><span>Nvidia purchase obligations</span></p><p>If demand slows or product transitions are delayed, these commitments could lead to massive inventory write-downs, hurting margins.</p><p><strong>Why It Matters for a Short Thesis:</strong></p><p>The semiconductor market is notoriously cyclical. Any downturn in demand could expose NVIDIA to falling prices, unsold inventory, and margin compression. Overcapacity could turn into a pricing war with competitors like AMD and Intel (INTC), further eroding profitability.</p><h2 id=\"id_3346631318\">2. NVIDIA’s Dependence on Hyperscalers and China</h2><p><strong>Key Issue: Revenue Concentration in Fragile Markets</strong></p><p>NVIDIA’s largest customers, such as Amazon, Microsoft, and Google, account for a significant portion of its revenue. If even one reduces AI-related spending due to budget cuts or cost discipline, the effect on NVIDIA would be severe.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/76daa2c745b22e4f279e5535a5f895fa\" alt=\"Nvidia Q3 2024 revenue by customer\" title=\"Nvidia Q3 2024 revenue by customer\" tg-width=\"940\" tg-height=\"143\"/><span>Nvidia Q3 2024 revenue by customer</span></p><p>15% of NVIDIA’s Q3 2024 revenue came from China and Hong Kong. Tightened U.S. export restrictions on advanced chips to China could shrink this critical market further. If restrictions extend to Blackwell chips (NVIDIA’s next-gen architecture), this could limit growth and lead to unsold inventory.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/c8582bf3c06050a3056b08a9aebbcd73\" alt=\"Nvidia Q3 2024 revenue by country\" title=\"Nvidia Q3 2024 revenue by country\" tg-width=\"940\" tg-height=\"190\"/><span>Nvidia Q3 2024 revenue by country</span></p><p><strong>Why It Matters for a Short Thesis:</strong></p><p>Geopolitical risk, combined with hyperscaler reliance, creates an unsustainable revenue model in a downturn. NVIDIA’s revenue base might not be diversified enough.</p><h2 id=\"id_1901870406\">3. Valuation Disconnect: Growth Premium Priced for Perfection</h2><p><strong>Key Issue: An Unsustainable Price-to-Sales (P/S) Ratio</strong></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/5b251921db83bf15fef6652dad5b5b42\" alt=\"Nvidia revenue estimate, price-to-sales ratio\" title=\"Nvidia revenue estimate, price-to-sales ratio\" tg-width=\"940\" tg-height=\"84\"/><span>Nvidia revenue estimate, price-to-sales ratio</span></p><p>NVIDIA’s stock trades at a forward P/S ratio far above industry peers, priced as if AI adoption will grow exponentially for years. This valuation leaves little room for error.</p><p>Market expectations assume continued exponential growth in AI-related revenue. Any sign of slowing demand or margin compression could cause a violent repricing of the stock as investors adjust to more realistic growth assumptions. The market isn’t pricing in the risks of:</p><ul style=\"\"><li><p>AI demand plateauing</p></li><li><p>Cyclical overcapacity in GPUs</p></li><li><p>Geopolitical and competitive pressures</p></li></ul><p><strong>Why It Matters for a Short Thesis:</strong></p><p>NVIDIA’s valuation could collapse under its own weight if the AI hype cycle wanes or fails to deliver on promises.</p><h2 id=\"id_4015481009\">4. Structural Weaknesses in Business Model</h2><p><strong>Key Issue: Dependence on High Margins and R&amp;D Investments</strong></p><p>NVIDIA has exceptional gross margins (~74.5% in Q3 FY2024), but these margins are vulnerable to:</p><ul style=\"\"><li><p>Increased competition from AMD, Intel, and emerging players</p></li><li><p>Overcapacity, leading to price wars</p></li><li><p>Rising R&amp;D and supply costs to maintain its technological edge</p></li><li><p>R&amp;D bloat: R&amp;D spending has ballooned to $9.2 billion for FY2024 (up 48% YoY)</p></li></ul><p>If AI demand falters, these costs become unsustainable.</p><p>Product Transition Complexity: NVIDIA’s accelerated product cadence (e.g., Hopper, Blackwell) increases risks of inventory obsolescence, supply chain inefficiencies, and customer confusion.</p><p><strong>Why It Matters for a Short Thesis:</strong></p><p>Any disruption in high-margin segments or R&amp;D inefficiencies could create cascading financial problems for NVIDIA.</p><h2 id=\"id_3212871234\">Catalysts for the Short Thesis</h2><ul style=\"\"><li><p><strong>Demand Plateau:</strong> AI adoption slows as hyperscalers optimize costs and customers hesitate on ROI for generative AI investments.</p></li><li><p><strong>Geopolitical Restrictions:</strong> Escalating U.S.-China tensions lead to further export bans, limiting NVIDIA’s market.</p></li><li><p><strong>Earnings Miss:</strong> A single revenue or margin miss due to overcapacity or demand shortfall could trigger a rapid market repricing.</p></li><li><p><strong>Valuation Correction:</strong> Investors may rotate out of “story stocks” like NVIDIA during a broader market downturn.</p></li></ul><h2 id=\"id_2732796899\">Impact on thesis</h2><p>I am not really picking on this whole battle, I am only trying to collect my thoughts and understand what the emerging side (bears) is seeing. I think the previous paragraphs capture it well. Going forward, the DeepSeek developments will likely hang over NVIDIA. The cost efficiency argument on the surface means that AI models require fewer GPUs per training cycle, and given that Hyperscalers optimize for cost savings, we can see them reducing total spending on NVIDIA’s chips sometime in the near future. Even a small reduction vis-a-vis expectations can drive a brutal repricing of the company’s valuation.</p><p>Nevertheless, I think that the Jevons Paradox will prevail in the long term. As AI model training becomes cheaper, demand for NVIDIA GPUs will increase, not decrease. The expanded accessibility and new use cases will likely make it happen.</p><p>That said, it is important to understand that there is likely to be turbulence as market participants try to digest this important piece of news. There will likely be moments of violent re-pricings at some of the next few quarterly earnings calls if there is any hint of spending cuts by Hyperscallers. I recommend keeping an eye on hyperscalers&#39; CapEx; if they reduce total spending, NVIDIA might be hit. Also, keep an eye on abnormal price cuts in GPUs. Both can be a flag for margin compression. In my opinion, this can turn out to be a buying opportunity if the Jevons Paradox holds. At this moment, I think it will, but it will be critical to correctly frame the time horizon for these swings.</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1728464409321","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Nvidia Bearish Momentum Explained</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNvidia Bearish Momentum Explained\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2025-01-30 16:10 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4752904-nvidia-bearish-momentum-explained><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryNVIDIA’s meteoric rise has been fueled by the generative AI boom, but history shows that tech hype cycles often result in overcapacity.15% of its Q3 2024 revenue came from China and Hong Kong. ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4752904-nvidia-bearish-momentum-explained\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NVDA":"英伟达"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4752904-nvidia-bearish-momentum-explained","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1101465849","content_text":"SummaryNVIDIA’s meteoric rise has been fueled by the generative AI boom, but history shows that tech hype cycles often result in overcapacity.15% of its Q3 2024 revenue came from China and Hong Kong. Tightened U.S. export restrictions on advanced chips to China could shrink this critical market further. If restrictions extend to Blackwell chips, this could limit growth and lead to unsold inventory.NVDA stock trades at a forward P/S ratio far above industry peers, priced as if AI adoption will grow exponentially for years. This valuation leaves little room for error.JHVEPhotoThe market is testing a new narrative for NVIDIA. This will be a bull and bear ferocious fight, but the current bear thinking is the following:1. Overcapacity Risk in Semiconductors: The AI Bubble NarrativeKey Issue: Overinvestment Based on Overhyped DemandNVIDIA’s meteoric rise has been fueled by the generative AI boom, but history shows that tech hype cycles often result in overcapacity (e.g., the dot-com bubble, cryptocurrency mining GPUs).Revenue from Data Center GPUs accounted for 87% of total revenue in Q3 FY2024, making NVIDIA heavily reliant on AI demand continuing indefinitely.A 10% slowdown in AI investments or hyperscaler spending (e.g., Microsoft (MSFT), Amazon (AMZN), Google (GOOG, GOOGL)) could drastically impact NVIDIA’s revenue.Overcommitted to Supply: NVIDIA has locked in $28.9 billion in supply commitments, expecting ongoing high demand for its Hopper and Blackwell architectures.Nvidia purchase obligationsIf demand slows or product transitions are delayed, these commitments could lead to massive inventory write-downs, hurting margins.Why It Matters for a Short Thesis:The semiconductor market is notoriously cyclical. Any downturn in demand could expose NVIDIA to falling prices, unsold inventory, and margin compression. Overcapacity could turn into a pricing war with competitors like AMD and Intel (INTC), further eroding profitability.2. NVIDIA’s Dependence on Hyperscalers and ChinaKey Issue: Revenue Concentration in Fragile MarketsNVIDIA’s largest customers, such as Amazon, Microsoft, and Google, account for a significant portion of its revenue. If even one reduces AI-related spending due to budget cuts or cost discipline, the effect on NVIDIA would be severe.Nvidia Q3 2024 revenue by customer15% of NVIDIA’s Q3 2024 revenue came from China and Hong Kong. Tightened U.S. export restrictions on advanced chips to China could shrink this critical market further. If restrictions extend to Blackwell chips (NVIDIA’s next-gen architecture), this could limit growth and lead to unsold inventory.Nvidia Q3 2024 revenue by countryWhy It Matters for a Short Thesis:Geopolitical risk, combined with hyperscaler reliance, creates an unsustainable revenue model in a downturn. NVIDIA’s revenue base might not be diversified enough.3. Valuation Disconnect: Growth Premium Priced for PerfectionKey Issue: An Unsustainable Price-to-Sales (P/S) RatioNvidia revenue estimate, price-to-sales ratioNVIDIA’s stock trades at a forward P/S ratio far above industry peers, priced as if AI adoption will grow exponentially for years. This valuation leaves little room for error.Market expectations assume continued exponential growth in AI-related revenue. Any sign of slowing demand or margin compression could cause a violent repricing of the stock as investors adjust to more realistic growth assumptions. The market isn’t pricing in the risks of:AI demand plateauingCyclical overcapacity in GPUsGeopolitical and competitive pressuresWhy It Matters for a Short Thesis:NVIDIA’s valuation could collapse under its own weight if the AI hype cycle wanes or fails to deliver on promises.4. Structural Weaknesses in Business ModelKey Issue: Dependence on High Margins and R&D InvestmentsNVIDIA has exceptional gross margins (~74.5% in Q3 FY2024), but these margins are vulnerable to:Increased competition from AMD, Intel, and emerging playersOvercapacity, leading to price warsRising R&D and supply costs to maintain its technological edgeR&D bloat: R&D spending has ballooned to $9.2 billion for FY2024 (up 48% YoY)If AI demand falters, these costs become unsustainable.Product Transition Complexity: NVIDIA’s accelerated product cadence (e.g., Hopper, Blackwell) increases risks of inventory obsolescence, supply chain inefficiencies, and customer confusion.Why It Matters for a Short Thesis:Any disruption in high-margin segments or R&D inefficiencies could create cascading financial problems for NVIDIA.Catalysts for the Short ThesisDemand Plateau: AI adoption slows as hyperscalers optimize costs and customers hesitate on ROI for generative AI investments.Geopolitical Restrictions: Escalating U.S.-China tensions lead to further export bans, limiting NVIDIA’s market.Earnings Miss: A single revenue or margin miss due to overcapacity or demand shortfall could trigger a rapid market repricing.Valuation Correction: Investors may rotate out of “story stocks” like NVIDIA during a broader market downturn.Impact on thesisI am not really picking on this whole battle, I am only trying to collect my thoughts and understand what the emerging side (bears) is seeing. I think the previous paragraphs capture it well. Going forward, the DeepSeek developments will likely hang over NVIDIA. The cost efficiency argument on the surface means that AI models require fewer GPUs per training cycle, and given that Hyperscalers optimize for cost savings, we can see them reducing total spending on NVIDIA’s chips sometime in the near future. Even a small reduction vis-a-vis expectations can drive a brutal repricing of the company’s valuation.Nevertheless, I think that the Jevons Paradox will prevail in the long term. As AI model training becomes cheaper, demand for NVIDIA GPUs will increase, not decrease. The expanded accessibility and new use cases will likely make it happen.That said, it is important to understand that there is likely to be turbulence as market participants try to digest this important piece of news. There will likely be moments of violent re-pricings at some of the next few quarterly earnings calls if there is any hint of spending cuts by Hyperscallers. I recommend keeping an eye on hyperscalers' CapEx; if they reduce total spending, NVIDIA might be hit. Also, keep an eye on abnormal price cuts in GPUs. Both can be a flag for margin compression. In my opinion, this can turn out to be a buying opportunity if the Jevons Paradox holds. At this moment, I think it will, but it will be critical to correctly frame the time horizon for these swings.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":11,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":391820958122160,"gmtCreate":1736665464954,"gmtModify":1736667246789,"author":{"id":"3574807189087941","authorId":"3574807189087941","name":"Icywinddale","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/3bd2fbf9d90e26b2f600b2c5d7c54244","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574807189087941","authorIdStr":"3574807189087941"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Bull shit","listText":"Bull shit","text":"Bull shit","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/391820958122160","repostId":"1162107727","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1162107727","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1736647249,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1162107727?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2025-01-12 10:00","market":"us","language":"en","title":"4 Underappreciated Risks Facing Nvidia Bulls","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1162107727","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryHeavy reliance on a few mega-cap tech companies poses a significant risk to Nvidia Corporation sales should investors begin to demand capital discipline from these companies.The surge in Nvidia","content":"<html><head></head><body><h2 id=\"id_1684018099\">Summary</h2><ul style=\"\"><li><p>Heavy reliance on a few mega-cap tech companies poses a significant risk to Nvidia Corporation sales should investors begin to demand capital discipline from these companies.</p></li><li><p>The surge in Nvidia&#39;s accounts receivable will act as a headwind to sales, as their customers already owe the company significant amounts of cash.</p></li><li><p>Widespread optimism among analysts and options traders poses a risk to valuation multiples should the bullish trend reverse.</p></li><li><p>The failure of the stock to reach new highs recently, combined with recent bearish price action, suggests a potential significant trend change could be afoot.</p></li></ul><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/6144f6f01bec9d39bca22c82ac595a7e\" alt=\"Nvidia Corporation building in Taipei, Taiwan.\" title=\"Nvidia Corporation building in Taipei, Taiwan.\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"500\"/><span>Nvidia Corporation building in Taipei, Taiwan.</span></p><p></p><p><strong>BING-JHEN HONG</strong></p><p></p><p>The bullish case for <strong>Nvidia Corporation</strong> (NASDAQ:NVDA) rests on the continuation of the company&#39;s blockbuster earnings growth, which many believe will allow the stock to grow into its elevated valuation multiples. However, I see four underappreciated risks facing the company over the next 12 months. The first is that the decline in profitability of Nvidia&#39;s main customers causes a sharp stock price decline and a shift towards capital discipline. Second is the extreme rise in Nvidia&#39;s accounts receivable, which may act as a headwind to future sales growth. Third is the extreme levels of optimism among analysts and options markets regarding the stock&#39;s outlook. Fourth is the failure of the stock price to rise to new highs despite this widespread optimism. Taken together, I maintain my strong sell rating on the stock and remain short.</p><h2 id=\"id_3090282346\">1) Declining Profitability Of Nvidia&#39;s Main Customers</h2><p>It could well be the case that a large share of Nvidia&#39;s earnings will turn out to reflect malinvestment resulting from the excessive spending among mega-cap tech stocks that has been enabled by the surge in their share prices. It has been estimated that as much as half of Nvidia&#39;s sales come from just four companies, namely Microsoft (MSFT), Meta Platforms (META) Amazon (AMZN), and Alphabet (GOOGL), while Tesla (TSLA) is also thought to be a significant customer. This may appear to be a positive thing, as these companies on the whole are highly stable and growing strongly. However, this level of concentration is troubling for several reasons.</p><p>One risk that has been well documented is that the major cloud computing customers reduce their reliance on Nvidia&#39;s chips via their own in-house AI chip development efforts. However, a less well-documented risk comes from a potential collapse in AI industry capex if the valuation bubble in mega-cap tech stocks bursts, leading to a shift towards capital discipline.</p><p>Over the past year, MSFT, META, GOOGL, AMZN, and TSLA have spent over $200bn in capex, equivalent to 20% of the entire S&amp;P500. If it is true that 50% of Nvidia&#39;s sales are to these companies, this means that almost one-third of the capex from these companies has found its way into Nvidia&#39;s coffers.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/25f238808ceeaa53ad53bbf8b3ac0497\" alt=\"Chart of Mag 7 Capex\" title=\"Chart of Mag 7 Capex\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"418\"/><span>Chart of Mag 7 Capex</span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>Bloomberg</strong></p><p></p><p>This huge investment spending has been enabled by the relentless appetite among investors for these stocks, sending a signal to management to continue full steam ahead despite there being little to show for these investments in terms of monetization. Moreover, stock-based compensation, or SBC, for these five companies amounted to $75bn over the same period, equivalent to 36% of the entire S&amp;P500 SBC. While stock-based compensation among these companies is of no benefit to Nvidia directly, their ability to offer expensive stock as compensation to employees has allowed them to ramp up AI training expenditure. Taken together, the combined value of capex and SBC among these five stocks has amounted to 19% of total sales over the past year. As a result, free cash flows excluding stock-based compensation for the group have actually declined over the past two quarters.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/756a69bc3fb19081b4586223420dd9fe\" alt=\"Chart of Mag 7 Cash flows\" title=\"Chart of Mag 7 Cash flows\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"418\"/><span>Chart of Mag 7 Cash flows</span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>Bloomberg</strong></p><p></p><p>The problem now is that these five stocks collectively trade at over 60x free cash flow ex-stock-based compensation, resulting in a free cash flow yield of around 1.5%. Meanwhile, 30-year inflation-linked bonds offer a yield of 2.6%. Such negative risk premiums have not been seen since the height of the late-1990s stock bubble, and strongly suggest that the current bubble is in its final stages. Any decline in the price of these five stocks could trigger a shift in priorities among management teams in favor of capital discipline. That could make it much more expensive for them to dish out stock-based compensation to employees to train AI models.</p><h2 id=\"id_2413479590\">2) Surging Accounts Receivable Is A Headwind For Sales</h2><p>An additional risk to Nvidia comes from the astonishing increase in accounts receivable, which increased by $9.4bn in the past four quarters. In the last quarter alone, the figure rose by $3.6bn. The sudden increase relative to sales stands out as being extreme when measured relative to the rest of the mega-cap universe, as shown in the chart below.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/bae2b98938d00814e2e1fdf7b61cee20\" alt=\"Chart of Mega Cap Accounts Receivable\" title=\"Chart of Mega Cap Accounts Receivable\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"445\"/><span>Chart of Mega Cap Accounts Receivable</span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>Bloomberg</strong></p><p></p><p>Considering that around half of the companies&#39; revenues come from highly stable mega-cap stocks, there is little risk that these reported earnings will not flow into the cash coffers. However, it does create a headwind for future sales, as its customers already owe the company significant amounts of cash.</p><h2 id=\"id_4278785936\">3) Sentiment, Positioning, And Wild Valuation Projections</h2><p>The price of 1-year call options on the stock exceeds the price of 1-year put options, which has only occurred a handful of times over the past decade, typically after a large stock price increase has already happened. As most investors use options as a hedge against a fall in the price of their stock holdings, the fact that it costs more to hedge against a large gain relative to a large drop indicated a large degree of speculative interest in the stock.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/f1b417dee9e02ccf920a94eeee0c6f89\" alt=\"Chart of NVDA Option Volatility\" title=\"Chart of NVDA Option Volatility\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"224\"/><span>Chart of NVDA Option Volatility</span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>Price of 1-Year NVDA Implied Call Option Volatility Vs Put Option Volatility (Bloomberg)</strong></p><p></p><p>Wall Street is also extremely bullish on the stock, with zero analysts giving it a sell rating. Meanwhile, the 12-month price target is fully 23% above current levels and 17% above its all-time high. We have also seen a proliferation of analyses calling for Nvidia to reach staggering valuations as high as $10tn, often justified by its low PEG (price-to-earnings-to-growth) ratio, such as this article. The author argues that Nvidia is a bargain due to expected earnings growth being higher than its forward P/E ratio. Leaving aside the fact that this double counts the rapid earnings growth expected in 2025, the PEG ratio is an extremely flawed valuation metric. It fails to consider the inevitable slowdown in growth that results once a company&#39;s earnings reach a significant share of the economy. It is the kind of metric that is brought out to justify paying extreme multiples for a stock.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/3da07b16243a12a5d8e85c36d6ffd820\" alt=\"Table of PEG Ratios\" title=\"Table of PEG Ratios\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"485\"/><span>Table of PEG Ratios</span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>Barrons</strong></p><p></p><h2 id=\"id_1548182104\">4) Concerning Chart Pattern</h2><p>Despite the widespread optimism towards Nvidia&#39;s stock, its price has failed to break out into new highs, and the large downside reversal candle seen on January 7 hints at a potential reversal pattern. The stock is now no higher than it was at its June peak when I last highlighted the extreme nature of its valuation multiples. Given the widespread bullish positioning in options markets, downside momentum could gather on any further weakness as options traders and margin-funded long positions are forced to reverse their bets.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/2206ab5285cec323d0c2e852c6445b66\" alt=\"Chart of NVDA\" title=\"Chart of NVDA\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"232\"/><span>Chart of NVDA</span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>NVDA Stock Price (Bloomberg)</strong></p><p></p><h2 id=\"id_4263502009\">Summary</h2><p>Nvidia bulls face several significant risks over the coming quarters, including the declining profitability of their main customers, surging accounts receivable, excessive optimism around the stock, and a deterioration in the price chart. A significant decline in the stock seems highly likely in 2025.</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1728464409321","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>4 Underappreciated Risks Facing Nvidia Bulls</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n4 Underappreciated Risks Facing Nvidia Bulls\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2025-01-12 10:00 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4748780-4-underappreciated-risks-facing-nvidia-bulls><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryHeavy reliance on a few mega-cap tech companies poses a significant risk to Nvidia Corporation sales should investors begin to demand capital discipline from these companies.The surge in Nvidia...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4748780-4-underappreciated-risks-facing-nvidia-bulls\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4748780-4-underappreciated-risks-facing-nvidia-bulls","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1162107727","content_text":"SummaryHeavy reliance on a few mega-cap tech companies poses a significant risk to Nvidia Corporation sales should investors begin to demand capital discipline from these companies.The surge in Nvidia's accounts receivable will act as a headwind to sales, as their customers already owe the company significant amounts of cash.Widespread optimism among analysts and options traders poses a risk to valuation multiples should the bullish trend reverse.The failure of the stock to reach new highs recently, combined with recent bearish price action, suggests a potential significant trend change could be afoot.Nvidia Corporation building in Taipei, Taiwan.BING-JHEN HONGThe bullish case for Nvidia Corporation (NASDAQ:NVDA) rests on the continuation of the company's blockbuster earnings growth, which many believe will allow the stock to grow into its elevated valuation multiples. However, I see four underappreciated risks facing the company over the next 12 months. The first is that the decline in profitability of Nvidia's main customers causes a sharp stock price decline and a shift towards capital discipline. Second is the extreme rise in Nvidia's accounts receivable, which may act as a headwind to future sales growth. Third is the extreme levels of optimism among analysts and options markets regarding the stock's outlook. Fourth is the failure of the stock price to rise to new highs despite this widespread optimism. Taken together, I maintain my strong sell rating on the stock and remain short.1) Declining Profitability Of Nvidia's Main CustomersIt could well be the case that a large share of Nvidia's earnings will turn out to reflect malinvestment resulting from the excessive spending among mega-cap tech stocks that has been enabled by the surge in their share prices. It has been estimated that as much as half of Nvidia's sales come from just four companies, namely Microsoft (MSFT), Meta Platforms (META) Amazon (AMZN), and Alphabet (GOOGL), while Tesla (TSLA) is also thought to be a significant customer. This may appear to be a positive thing, as these companies on the whole are highly stable and growing strongly. However, this level of concentration is troubling for several reasons.One risk that has been well documented is that the major cloud computing customers reduce their reliance on Nvidia's chips via their own in-house AI chip development efforts. However, a less well-documented risk comes from a potential collapse in AI industry capex if the valuation bubble in mega-cap tech stocks bursts, leading to a shift towards capital discipline.Over the past year, MSFT, META, GOOGL, AMZN, and TSLA have spent over $200bn in capex, equivalent to 20% of the entire S&P500. If it is true that 50% of Nvidia's sales are to these companies, this means that almost one-third of the capex from these companies has found its way into Nvidia's coffers.Chart of Mag 7 CapexBloombergThis huge investment spending has been enabled by the relentless appetite among investors for these stocks, sending a signal to management to continue full steam ahead despite there being little to show for these investments in terms of monetization. Moreover, stock-based compensation, or SBC, for these five companies amounted to $75bn over the same period, equivalent to 36% of the entire S&P500 SBC. While stock-based compensation among these companies is of no benefit to Nvidia directly, their ability to offer expensive stock as compensation to employees has allowed them to ramp up AI training expenditure. Taken together, the combined value of capex and SBC among these five stocks has amounted to 19% of total sales over the past year. As a result, free cash flows excluding stock-based compensation for the group have actually declined over the past two quarters.Chart of Mag 7 Cash flowsBloombergThe problem now is that these five stocks collectively trade at over 60x free cash flow ex-stock-based compensation, resulting in a free cash flow yield of around 1.5%. Meanwhile, 30-year inflation-linked bonds offer a yield of 2.6%. Such negative risk premiums have not been seen since the height of the late-1990s stock bubble, and strongly suggest that the current bubble is in its final stages. Any decline in the price of these five stocks could trigger a shift in priorities among management teams in favor of capital discipline. That could make it much more expensive for them to dish out stock-based compensation to employees to train AI models.2) Surging Accounts Receivable Is A Headwind For SalesAn additional risk to Nvidia comes from the astonishing increase in accounts receivable, which increased by $9.4bn in the past four quarters. In the last quarter alone, the figure rose by $3.6bn. The sudden increase relative to sales stands out as being extreme when measured relative to the rest of the mega-cap universe, as shown in the chart below.Chart of Mega Cap Accounts ReceivableBloombergConsidering that around half of the companies' revenues come from highly stable mega-cap stocks, there is little risk that these reported earnings will not flow into the cash coffers. However, it does create a headwind for future sales, as its customers already owe the company significant amounts of cash.3) Sentiment, Positioning, And Wild Valuation ProjectionsThe price of 1-year call options on the stock exceeds the price of 1-year put options, which has only occurred a handful of times over the past decade, typically after a large stock price increase has already happened. As most investors use options as a hedge against a fall in the price of their stock holdings, the fact that it costs more to hedge against a large gain relative to a large drop indicated a large degree of speculative interest in the stock.Chart of NVDA Option VolatilityPrice of 1-Year NVDA Implied Call Option Volatility Vs Put Option Volatility (Bloomberg)Wall Street is also extremely bullish on the stock, with zero analysts giving it a sell rating. Meanwhile, the 12-month price target is fully 23% above current levels and 17% above its all-time high. We have also seen a proliferation of analyses calling for Nvidia to reach staggering valuations as high as $10tn, often justified by its low PEG (price-to-earnings-to-growth) ratio, such as this article. The author argues that Nvidia is a bargain due to expected earnings growth being higher than its forward P/E ratio. Leaving aside the fact that this double counts the rapid earnings growth expected in 2025, the PEG ratio is an extremely flawed valuation metric. It fails to consider the inevitable slowdown in growth that results once a company's earnings reach a significant share of the economy. It is the kind of metric that is brought out to justify paying extreme multiples for a stock.Table of PEG RatiosBarrons4) Concerning Chart PatternDespite the widespread optimism towards Nvidia's stock, its price has failed to break out into new highs, and the large downside reversal candle seen on January 7 hints at a potential reversal pattern. The stock is now no higher than it was at its June peak when I last highlighted the extreme nature of its valuation multiples. Given the widespread bullish positioning in options markets, downside momentum could gather on any further weakness as options traders and margin-funded long positions are forced to reverse their bets.Chart of NVDANVDA Stock Price (Bloomberg)SummaryNvidia bulls face several significant risks over the coming quarters, including the declining profitability of their main customers, surging accounts receivable, excessive optimism around the stock, and a deterioration in the price chart. A significant decline in the stock seems highly likely in 2025.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":348,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":382617526878608,"gmtCreate":1734447495602,"gmtModify":1734447535935,"author":{"id":"3574807189087941","authorId":"3574807189087941","name":"Icywinddale","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/3bd2fbf9d90e26b2f600b2c5d7c54244","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574807189087941","authorIdStr":"3574807189087941"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Can not believe this kind shit article can be published. Who is the author?","listText":"Can not believe this kind shit article can be published. Who is the author?","text":"Can not believe this kind shit article can be published. Who is the author?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/382617526878608","repostId":"1128864584","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1128864584","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1734416177,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1128864584?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2024-12-17 14:16","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Nvidia: This Could Be The Top","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1128864584","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryA rather tepid Nvidia Corporation forecast for Q4, which failed to meet Wall Street’s relatively high expectations, is one of the main reasons behind the recent decline in NVDA's share price.At","content":"<html><head></head><body><h2 id=\"id_1885097578\">Summary</h2><ul style=\"\"><li><p>A rather tepid Nvidia Corporation forecast for Q4, which failed to meet Wall Street’s relatively high expectations, is one of the main reasons behind the recent decline in NVDA&#39;s share price.</p></li><li><p>At this point, Nvidia’s stock could be considered overvalued and overhyped at the same time.</p></li><li><p>Nvidia remains a SELL for us, since we believe that its stock has more room to fall.</p></li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/f1cd66fb76fb9c3656779aa6ac145d6d\" alt=\"\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"500\"/></p><p><strong>Nvidia Corporation </strong>(NASDAQ:NVDA) stock is up 14% since we last covered it a couple of months ago, but also down 7% since the release of its Q3 earnings report last month. Although the earnings report was successful, the market is not satisfied with the guidance that the management announced.</p><p>In our previous coverage on Nvidia, we said that the company’s stock is priced for perfection and the inability of the management to constantly increase the outlook significantly above the consensus could kill Nvidia’s momentum. That is precisely what is happening right now. We believe that because of the rising challenges that the company is facing, the future guidance for the upcoming quarters might disappoint as well and lead to a further depreciation of Nvidia’s share price.</p><h2 id=\"id_3690589756\">Reality Fails To Meet Expectations</h2><p>The Q3 numbers themselves weren’t that bad. The revenues were up 93.6% Y/Y to $35.08 billion, above the consensus by nearly $2 billion. The bottom-line performance was also relatively good, as it was above the consensus as well. But because Nvidia was priced for perfection already, the relatively weak guidance killed the stock’s momentum, and the share price is currently on a downward trend.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/b9d4491fd0ada5a07d412d888f3a9fae\" alt=\"Nvidia’s stock price\" title=\"Nvidia’s stock price\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"261\"/><span>Nvidia’s stock price</span></p><p>In Q4, the management expects Nvidia to make $37.5 billion in revenues, which is not that far away from the street consensus of $37.1 billion. Some analysts guided for the revenue goal of as high as $41 billion before the management’s outlook was released. But overall, the guidance mainly disappointed Wall Street and became one of the main reasons behind the latest depreciation. At the same time, Nvidia faces some major challenges that could prevent the company from aggressively increasing the outlook that could impress Wall Street in the upcoming quarters as well.</p><p>The AI accelerators from the Blackwell series are currently one of the most talked about accelerators in the world, with an insane demand according to Nvidia’s management. However, some issues associated with them have already affected Nvidia’s release plans. In October, Blackwell encountered a design flaw that resulted in lower yield rates and delayed their shipping to first clients. Then last month, it was reported that Blackwell chips were overheating in servers.</p><p>Although it appears that those issues have now been fixed and the ramp-up of Blackwell is expected in Q4, Nvidia’s guidance suggests that revenue of $37.5 billion for the upcoming quarter will translate to a Q/Q growth rate of only 7%. This might indicate that despite all the hype surrounding Blackwell, the AI chip buying cycle could be coming off the peak right now. That doesn’t mean that the growth will disappear. However, the growth rate itself should normalize and the aggressive double and triple-digit revenue growth rate that fueled the rise of Nvidia’s stock could become a thing of the past.</p><p>The ramp-up of Blackwell in the upcoming quarters is also expected to affect Nvidia’s margins and could result in a poorer bottom-line performance. The gross margins are expected to decline to the low 70s, and the margin pressure could persist throughout the first part of FY26. This creates additional pressure on Nvidia, as Blackwell needs to perform well for the company to not release another relatively disappointing guidance that further kills the stock of its momentum. Considering that the networking revenues were down sequentially in Q3, and the gaming revenues in Q4 are expected to be down sequentially as well, Nvidia’s upside could be limited in the foreseeable future if Blackwell doesn’t perform well.</p><p>Nvidia also faces additional pressure from hyperscalers, who at the same time are its major clients. They are currently in the middle of designing their own AI chips for their data centers, which over time could undermine Nvidia’s dominant position in the AI accelerator market. We already know that Amazon (AMZN) is working with Intel (INTC) to produce a fabric AI chip, while Apple (AAPL) recently confirmed that it now also uses Amazon’s custom AI chips. Other companies like Microsoft (MSFT), Meta Platforms (META), Google (GOOGL, GOOG), Tesla (TSLA) and OpenAI are also in the middle of designing their own AI chips and could become direct competitors of Nvidia over time.</p><p>All of those developments make us question Nvidia’s market capitalization of $3.4 trillion. The whole generative AI market is not expected to generate as much revenue over the following years. Thus, it doesn’t make a lot of sense for Nvidia to be worth so much today, given the number of issues that it faces.</p><p>The geopolitical issues are also not going anywhere away. The implementation of Trump’s protectionist tariff policy next year could damage global growth, which could result in lower demand for AI chips since businesses could be forced to hoard resources in the face of macroeconomic uncertainty. Nvidia already suffers from the ongoing chip war between China and the United States, as its revenues in China are currently below historically high levels due to chip export restrictions. An uncertain macro environment will only make it harder for it to aggressively increase its outlook to satisfy the market’s needs.</p><h3 id=\"id_211129166\">The Intrinsic Value of Nvidia</h3><p>At the current market price, we also believe that Nvidia is overvalued. Our valuation model from the previous article showed that Nvidia’s intrinsic value is $79.33 per share. Since Nvidia released a new outlook last month, we decided to update our model and make several revisions.</p><p>In the model, we decrease Nvidia’s effective tax rate from 21% to 15%. The 15% is closer to Nvidia’s current rate, and there’s a possibility that the standard corporate tax rate in the United States will be decreased under the Trump administration. The perpetual growth rate remains at 3%, and our valuation model forecasts Nvidia’s performance for the next five years. The long-term debt and cash data have been taken from the latest earnings report, and we update this model when Nvidia is trading at $134.25 per share.</p><p>The discount rate in our valuation model is 9.84%. We figured it out by calculating Nvidia’s after-tax cost of debt and cost of equity. To figure out the cost of debt, we mostly used Nvidia’s TTM data. To figure out the cost of equity, we used the risk-free rate of 4.40%, beta of 1.66, and the market-return rate of 7.69%. We then weighted Nvidia’s debt and equity to arrive at the discount rate.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/a6bea708b99e09c85b15fd4405208555\" alt=\"Nvidia’s valuation model\" title=\"Nvidia’s valuation model\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"182\"/><span>Nvidia’s valuation model</span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>Nvidia’s valuation model (Bears of Wall Street)</strong></p><p></p><p>For the forecast table below, we updated the sales growth rate, which is now similar to the overall expectations for the next couple of years. As the table shows, we expect a normalization of the sales growth rate in the following years. The EBIT rate remained the same as before and is similar to the current TTM rate. The tax rate was decreased, and the bottom part of the forecast table mostly remained the same.</p><p>The assumptions in our forecast table helped us to figure out Nvidia’s enterprise value, which in our case is $2.23 trillion. We then added cash and subtracted debt to arrive at the equity value of $2.26 trillion. Thereafter, we divided Nvidia’s equity value by the number of its outstanding shares and figured out that Nvidia’s intrinsic value is $91.20 per share. The lower tax rate in this updated model is one of the main reasons why the intrinsic value has been higher in comparison to our previous model. However, under the new assumptions, Nvidia’s stock is overvalued by around 32%.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/5c46e9d52e3bae0f74e46a337968e78d\" alt=\"Nvidia’s valuation model\" title=\"Nvidia’s valuation model\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"228\"/><span>Nvidia’s valuation model</span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>Nvidia’s valuation model (Bears of Wall Street)</strong></p><p></p><h3 id=\"id_4292459600\">Risks To Our Bearish Thesis</h3><p>Although we believe that Nvidia’s stock has likely reached its top for now, there are still a couple of potential developments that can undermine our bearish outlook for the company. While we are unlikely to see an aggressive Y/Y growth of sales in the future since the base for comparison has been significantly raised in the last year and a half, that doesn’t mean that the growth will stop. Since there’s a possibility that a chip shortage could last for the next couple of years, there’s a potential that the demand for AI chips will remain for a while. This could result in sales that are higher than the current consensus once the production of Blackwell is ramped up. This could push Nvidia’s stock price higher, like it was a year ago, even if the Y/Y growth rate won’t be as impressive as before.</p><p>The macro risks could also be overblown, and there’s a possibility that the American economy will grow next year despite the geopolitical uncertainty. This could result in a boost in demand for AI chips and also lead to the growth of Nvidia’s share price.</p><h2 id=\"id_2596097235\">Final Thoughts</h2><p>Is Nvidia a great business? Yes. Will it continue to grow for years to come? Most likely yes. But the biggest issue at this point is that the rate at which Nvidia is growing is unlikely to be as impressive as before. We believe that a rather tepid forecast for Q4, which failed to meet Wall Street’s relatively high expectations, is one of the main reasons behind the recent decline of Nvidia’s share price.</p><p>Considering that the stock is already overvalued while challenges for Nvidia continue to increase, it would be tough for the stock to continue to trade at the current relatively high multiples. That is why Nvidia remains a SELL for us, since we believe that its stock has more room to fall.</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1728464409321","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Nvidia: This Could Be The Top</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNvidia: This Could Be The Top\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-12-17 14:16 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4744616-nvidia-this-could-be-the-top><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryA rather tepid Nvidia Corporation forecast for Q4, which failed to meet Wall Street’s relatively high expectations, is one of the main reasons behind the recent decline in NVDA's share price.At...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4744616-nvidia-this-could-be-the-top\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NVDA":"英伟达"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4744616-nvidia-this-could-be-the-top","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1128864584","content_text":"SummaryA rather tepid Nvidia Corporation forecast for Q4, which failed to meet Wall Street’s relatively high expectations, is one of the main reasons behind the recent decline in NVDA's share price.At this point, Nvidia’s stock could be considered overvalued and overhyped at the same time.Nvidia remains a SELL for us, since we believe that its stock has more room to fall.Nvidia Corporation (NASDAQ:NVDA) stock is up 14% since we last covered it a couple of months ago, but also down 7% since the release of its Q3 earnings report last month. Although the earnings report was successful, the market is not satisfied with the guidance that the management announced.In our previous coverage on Nvidia, we said that the company’s stock is priced for perfection and the inability of the management to constantly increase the outlook significantly above the consensus could kill Nvidia’s momentum. That is precisely what is happening right now. We believe that because of the rising challenges that the company is facing, the future guidance for the upcoming quarters might disappoint as well and lead to a further depreciation of Nvidia’s share price.Reality Fails To Meet ExpectationsThe Q3 numbers themselves weren’t that bad. The revenues were up 93.6% Y/Y to $35.08 billion, above the consensus by nearly $2 billion. The bottom-line performance was also relatively good, as it was above the consensus as well. But because Nvidia was priced for perfection already, the relatively weak guidance killed the stock’s momentum, and the share price is currently on a downward trend.Nvidia’s stock priceIn Q4, the management expects Nvidia to make $37.5 billion in revenues, which is not that far away from the street consensus of $37.1 billion. Some analysts guided for the revenue goal of as high as $41 billion before the management’s outlook was released. But overall, the guidance mainly disappointed Wall Street and became one of the main reasons behind the latest depreciation. At the same time, Nvidia faces some major challenges that could prevent the company from aggressively increasing the outlook that could impress Wall Street in the upcoming quarters as well.The AI accelerators from the Blackwell series are currently one of the most talked about accelerators in the world, with an insane demand according to Nvidia’s management. However, some issues associated with them have already affected Nvidia’s release plans. In October, Blackwell encountered a design flaw that resulted in lower yield rates and delayed their shipping to first clients. Then last month, it was reported that Blackwell chips were overheating in servers.Although it appears that those issues have now been fixed and the ramp-up of Blackwell is expected in Q4, Nvidia’s guidance suggests that revenue of $37.5 billion for the upcoming quarter will translate to a Q/Q growth rate of only 7%. This might indicate that despite all the hype surrounding Blackwell, the AI chip buying cycle could be coming off the peak right now. That doesn’t mean that the growth will disappear. However, the growth rate itself should normalize and the aggressive double and triple-digit revenue growth rate that fueled the rise of Nvidia’s stock could become a thing of the past.The ramp-up of Blackwell in the upcoming quarters is also expected to affect Nvidia’s margins and could result in a poorer bottom-line performance. The gross margins are expected to decline to the low 70s, and the margin pressure could persist throughout the first part of FY26. This creates additional pressure on Nvidia, as Blackwell needs to perform well for the company to not release another relatively disappointing guidance that further kills the stock of its momentum. Considering that the networking revenues were down sequentially in Q3, and the gaming revenues in Q4 are expected to be down sequentially as well, Nvidia’s upside could be limited in the foreseeable future if Blackwell doesn’t perform well.Nvidia also faces additional pressure from hyperscalers, who at the same time are its major clients. They are currently in the middle of designing their own AI chips for their data centers, which over time could undermine Nvidia’s dominant position in the AI accelerator market. We already know that Amazon (AMZN) is working with Intel (INTC) to produce a fabric AI chip, while Apple (AAPL) recently confirmed that it now also uses Amazon’s custom AI chips. Other companies like Microsoft (MSFT), Meta Platforms (META), Google (GOOGL, GOOG), Tesla (TSLA) and OpenAI are also in the middle of designing their own AI chips and could become direct competitors of Nvidia over time.All of those developments make us question Nvidia’s market capitalization of $3.4 trillion. The whole generative AI market is not expected to generate as much revenue over the following years. Thus, it doesn’t make a lot of sense for Nvidia to be worth so much today, given the number of issues that it faces.The geopolitical issues are also not going anywhere away. The implementation of Trump’s protectionist tariff policy next year could damage global growth, which could result in lower demand for AI chips since businesses could be forced to hoard resources in the face of macroeconomic uncertainty. Nvidia already suffers from the ongoing chip war between China and the United States, as its revenues in China are currently below historically high levels due to chip export restrictions. An uncertain macro environment will only make it harder for it to aggressively increase its outlook to satisfy the market’s needs.The Intrinsic Value of NvidiaAt the current market price, we also believe that Nvidia is overvalued. Our valuation model from the previous article showed that Nvidia’s intrinsic value is $79.33 per share. Since Nvidia released a new outlook last month, we decided to update our model and make several revisions.In the model, we decrease Nvidia’s effective tax rate from 21% to 15%. The 15% is closer to Nvidia’s current rate, and there’s a possibility that the standard corporate tax rate in the United States will be decreased under the Trump administration. The perpetual growth rate remains at 3%, and our valuation model forecasts Nvidia’s performance for the next five years. The long-term debt and cash data have been taken from the latest earnings report, and we update this model when Nvidia is trading at $134.25 per share.The discount rate in our valuation model is 9.84%. We figured it out by calculating Nvidia’s after-tax cost of debt and cost of equity. To figure out the cost of debt, we mostly used Nvidia’s TTM data. To figure out the cost of equity, we used the risk-free rate of 4.40%, beta of 1.66, and the market-return rate of 7.69%. We then weighted Nvidia’s debt and equity to arrive at the discount rate.Nvidia’s valuation modelNvidia’s valuation model (Bears of Wall Street)For the forecast table below, we updated the sales growth rate, which is now similar to the overall expectations for the next couple of years. As the table shows, we expect a normalization of the sales growth rate in the following years. The EBIT rate remained the same as before and is similar to the current TTM rate. The tax rate was decreased, and the bottom part of the forecast table mostly remained the same.The assumptions in our forecast table helped us to figure out Nvidia’s enterprise value, which in our case is $2.23 trillion. We then added cash and subtracted debt to arrive at the equity value of $2.26 trillion. Thereafter, we divided Nvidia’s equity value by the number of its outstanding shares and figured out that Nvidia’s intrinsic value is $91.20 per share. The lower tax rate in this updated model is one of the main reasons why the intrinsic value has been higher in comparison to our previous model. However, under the new assumptions, Nvidia’s stock is overvalued by around 32%.Nvidia’s valuation modelNvidia’s valuation model (Bears of Wall Street)Risks To Our Bearish ThesisAlthough we believe that Nvidia’s stock has likely reached its top for now, there are still a couple of potential developments that can undermine our bearish outlook for the company. While we are unlikely to see an aggressive Y/Y growth of sales in the future since the base for comparison has been significantly raised in the last year and a half, that doesn’t mean that the growth will stop. Since there’s a possibility that a chip shortage could last for the next couple of years, there’s a potential that the demand for AI chips will remain for a while. This could result in sales that are higher than the current consensus once the production of Blackwell is ramped up. This could push Nvidia’s stock price higher, like it was a year ago, even if the Y/Y growth rate won’t be as impressive as before.The macro risks could also be overblown, and there’s a possibility that the American economy will grow next year despite the geopolitical uncertainty. This could result in a boost in demand for AI chips and also lead to the growth of Nvidia’s share price.Final ThoughtsIs Nvidia a great business? Yes. Will it continue to grow for years to come? Most likely yes. But the biggest issue at this point is that the rate at which Nvidia is growing is unlikely to be as impressive as before. We believe that a rather tepid forecast for Q4, which failed to meet Wall Street’s relatively high expectations, is one of the main reasons behind the recent decline of Nvidia’s share price.Considering that the stock is already overvalued while challenges for Nvidia continue to increase, it would be tough for the stock to continue to trade at the current relatively high multiples. That is why Nvidia remains a SELL for us, since we believe that its stock has more room to fall.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":702,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":377631316160752,"gmtCreate":1733224759620,"gmtModify":1733230487611,"author":{"id":"3574807189087941","authorId":"3574807189087941","name":"Icywinddale","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/3bd2fbf9d90e26b2f600b2c5d7c54244","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574807189087941","authorIdStr":"3574807189087941"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Who is ‘Trend Force'? Only Chidren believe in this kind stupid news.","listText":"Who is ‘Trend Force'? Only Chidren believe in this kind stupid news.","text":"Who is ‘Trend Force'? Only Chidren believe in this kind stupid news.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/377631316160752","repostId":"1144849219","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1144849219","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1733206383,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1144849219?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2024-12-03 14:13","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Production Hurdles for Nvidia's GB200 Spark Rumors of Microsoft Cutting Orders","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1144849219","media":"Trend Force","summary":"As demand for artificial intelligence continues to surge, the industry’s appetite for high-performance computing chips has grown increasingly intense. According to a report by the Commercial Times, NV","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>As demand for artificial intelligence continues to surge, the industry’s appetite for high-performance computing chips has grown increasingly intense. According to a report by the Commercial Times, NVIDIA’s next-generation Blackwell architecture chip, the GB200, has encountered new technical hurdles in its mass production plans. In response, CSP provider Microsoft is reportedly scaling back its orders.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/1d68eeb02c6b163c51fbae9253b663f6\" alt=\"NVIDIA Blackwell\" title=\"NVIDIA Blackwell\" tg-width=\"624\" tg-height=\"351\"/><span>NVIDIA Blackwell</span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Sources within the supply chain cited by Commercial Times reveal that the issue lies in the backplane connection design. The testing yield for cartridge connectors provided by U.S. Tier-1 supplier Amphenol has been suboptimal, potentially delaying mass production until March 2025.</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">The GB200 chips employ TSMC’s cutting-edge CoWoS-L advanced packaging technology, incorporating a highly complex cabinet design. However, this complexity has led to various challenges, including overheating in chip design, leakage issues in UQDs, and now, insufficient yield rates for copper cables. While NVIDIA announced during its recent earnings call that Blackwell production is fully underway, supply constraints remain a pressing issue that the company is working to resolve with its partners.</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">The same report, citing supply chain sources, attributes the issue to a newly developed cartridge connector module. The significant specification upgrade of the GB200 has increased production complexity, resulting in poor yield rates and failed testing, creating a major bottleneck.</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">NVIDIA is actively seeking alternative suppliers, but issues such as patent restrictions and capacity ramp-up delays are expected to prolong resolution efforts. While the report notes that chip production schedules remain unaffected, supply chain checks indicate that Microsoft has already cut its orders for NVIDIA by 40%, reallocating some to the GB300 chips set for release in mid-2025.</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1724652185079","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Production Hurdles for Nvidia's GB200 Spark Rumors of Microsoft Cutting Orders</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nProduction Hurdles for Nvidia's GB200 Spark Rumors of Microsoft Cutting Orders\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-12-03 14:13 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.trendforce.com/news/2024/12/02/news-production-hurdles-for-gb200-spark-rumors-of-microsoft-cutting-orders/><strong>Trend Force</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>As demand for artificial intelligence continues to surge, the industry’s appetite for high-performance computing chips has grown increasingly intense. According to a report by the Commercial Times, ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.trendforce.com/news/2024/12/02/news-production-hurdles-for-gb200-spark-rumors-of-microsoft-cutting-orders/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://www.trendforce.com/news/2024/12/02/news-production-hurdles-for-gb200-spark-rumors-of-microsoft-cutting-orders/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1144849219","content_text":"As demand for artificial intelligence continues to surge, the industry’s appetite for high-performance computing chips has grown increasingly intense. According to a report by the Commercial Times, NVIDIA’s next-generation Blackwell architecture chip, the GB200, has encountered new technical hurdles in its mass production plans. In response, CSP provider Microsoft is reportedly scaling back its orders.NVIDIA BlackwellSources within the supply chain cited by Commercial Times reveal that the issue lies in the backplane connection design. The testing yield for cartridge connectors provided by U.S. Tier-1 supplier Amphenol has been suboptimal, potentially delaying mass production until March 2025.The GB200 chips employ TSMC’s cutting-edge CoWoS-L advanced packaging technology, incorporating a highly complex cabinet design. However, this complexity has led to various challenges, including overheating in chip design, leakage issues in UQDs, and now, insufficient yield rates for copper cables. While NVIDIA announced during its recent earnings call that Blackwell production is fully underway, supply constraints remain a pressing issue that the company is working to resolve with its partners.The same report, citing supply chain sources, attributes the issue to a newly developed cartridge connector module. The significant specification upgrade of the GB200 has increased production complexity, resulting in poor yield rates and failed testing, creating a major bottleneck.NVIDIA is actively seeking alternative suppliers, but issues such as patent restrictions and capacity ramp-up delays are expected to prolong resolution efforts. While the report notes that chip production schedules remain unaffected, supply chain checks indicate that Microsoft has already cut its orders for NVIDIA by 40%, reallocating some to the GB300 chips set for release in mid-2025.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":343,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":373543719842000,"gmtCreate":1732237062466,"gmtModify":1732239466422,"author":{"id":"3574807189087941","authorId":"3574807189087941","name":"Icywinddale","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/3bd2fbf9d90e26b2f600b2c5d7c54244","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574807189087941","authorIdStr":"3574807189087941"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Now we know why democrats lost the election.","listText":"Now we know why democrats lost the election.","text":"Now we know why democrats lost the election.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/373543719842000","repostId":"2485444956","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2485444956","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Dow Jones publishes the world’s most trusted business news and financial information in a variety of media.","home_visible":0,"media_name":"Dow Jones","id":"106","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99"},"pubTimestamp":1732232749,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2485444956?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2024-11-22 07:45","market":"nz","language":"en","title":"The DOJ-Google Fight Comes Into Focus. Why It's Finally Hitting Alphabet's Stock","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2485444956","media":"Dow Jones","summary":"The U.S. Department of Justice has aggressively pursued Google as a monopolist in recent years, going back to the first Trump administration. And it's gotten a federal judge to rule in its favor.But the DOJ's full intentions weren't fully clear until late last night when the department filed specific remedies that it would like to see the U.S. District judge impose. The DOJ is out for a pound of flesh.An end to search payments: The payments that Google makes to be the default on mobile devices were at the heart of the DOJ's case. Most prominent among these are Google's payouts to Apple, which were pegged at $20 billion in 2022 during the trail. That number represented 16% of Google's cost-of-revenue. But they're also material to Apple, comprising 5% of its 2022 revenue. Assuming that stream of payments all falls to the bottom line, it would have been roughly 21% of Apple's net income that year.The ban goes beyond third-party payments. The DOJ has said it wants to stop Google from using","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>The U.S. Department of Justice has aggressively pursued Google as a monopolist in recent years, going back to the first Trump administration. And it&#39;s gotten a federal judge to rule in its favor.</p><p>But the DOJ&#39;s full intentions weren&#39;t fully clear until late last night when the department filed specific remedies that it would like to see the U.S. District judge impose. The DOJ is out for a pound of flesh.</p><p>While media reports had telegraphed the government&#39;s demand to sever Chrome and Android from Google, the filing went much further. The government has a set of demands that go deeply into the way Google does business, and it seems to be spooking investors. Until now, shares of Google-parent Alphabet have largely escaped regulatory worry. But on Thursday, the stock was down 4.7%.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/2347baa2536c44f072e18ffba04106cc\" tg-width=\"790\" tg-height=\"845\"/></p><p>Here&#39;s why investors are nervous:</p><p>An end to search payments: The payments that Google makes to be the default on mobile devices were at the heart of the DOJ&#39;s case. Most prominent among these are Google&#39;s payouts to Apple, which were pegged at $20 billion in 2022 during the trail. That number represented 16% of Google&#39;s cost-of-revenue. But they&#39;re also material to Apple, comprising 5% of its 2022 revenue. Assuming that stream of payments all falls to the bottom line, it would have been roughly 21% of Apple&#39;s net income that year.</p><p>It&#39;s not clear how Apple would replace that income, though, for now investors don&#39;t seem particularly worried. Apple shares were up slightly on Wednesday.</p><p>Google also makes payments to Android smartphone providers to ensure its software is preloaded on phones, and that its search is the default option. If the DOJ gets its way, those payments would also be banned.</p><p>These payments to the smartphone makers and others are what Google calls its &#34;traffic acquisition costs.&#34; They totaled $40 billion in the first nine months of 2024, or 38% of Google&#39;s cost of revenue. If the company was banned from making these payments, Alphabet&#39;s gross margins would rise substantially immediately. On the downside, without the payments, Google could lose search market share, thereby limiting advertising revenue down the road. That impact is long-term and uncertain.</p><p>The ban goes beyond third-party payments. The DOJ has said it wants to stop Google from using its search engine as the default option on its own line of Pixel smartphones.</p><p>The DOJ wants the keys to the castle: The DOJ&#39;s proposed remedy would force Google to share its most important data with rivals, including well-heeled ones like Microsoft. One of Google&#39;s primary advantages would be lost -- its treasure trove of exclusive data, including its search index, ad data, and user data. These large data sets are the foundation of Google&#39;s success.</p><p>The Enforcement: Perhaps the most intrusive part of the proposal is the DOJ&#39;s recommendation to create a technical committee that would oversee Google&#39;s compliance with the judge&#39;s ruling. The committee would be composed of five members, with a nomination process that almost guarantees the government would control a majority of the committee.</p><p>The group would have broad powers to oversee Google, including interviewing employees, and accessing all documents, servers, and employee devices on request. The committee would also get to see Google&#39;s source code and algorithms, Google&#39;s most prized intellectual property.</p><p>If the DOJ gets its way, most of the remedies would be in place for 10 years.</p><p>On Thursday, Google had a blunt response to the government&#39;s proposals: &#34;DOJ had a chance to propose remedies related to the issue in this case, &#34; the company said in a blog post. &#34;Instead, DOJ chose to push a radical interventionist agenda that would harm Americans and America&#39;s global technology leadership.&#34;</p><p>Next up: The court is scheduled to decide on the penalty phase of the Google trial in April, with a final ruling due in August. U.S. District Judge Amit Mehta could choose to reject some or all of the DOJ&#39;s suggested remedies.</p><p>Any actual enforcement could take years to play out. Google has already declared that it will appeal, and Mehta could decide to stay any remedies during the appeal, a process that could stretch out for years.</p><p>The wild card: In the meantime, there is a new administration coming to the White House in January, and new appointees at the DOJ. Jonathan Kanter, the DOJ&#39;s lead on its cases against Google, will likely be replaced. But it&#39;s important to remember that this case originated in 2020 under the first Trump administration and it includes 49 states as co-plaintiffs. Most of these states have Republican Attorneys General.</p><p>No one knows how a new DOJ would handle the case.</p><p>Many on Wall Street remain doubtful the DOJ&#39;s proposal will come to fruition.</p><p>&#34;We do not see a breakup in the next few years,&#34; Dan Ives of Wedbush told Barron&#39;s on Thursday. &#34;We see business model tweaks and also a much different tone from the Trump administration around Big Tech on the horizon.&#34;</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The DOJ-Google Fight Comes Into Focus. Why It's Finally Hitting Alphabet's Stock</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe DOJ-Google Fight Comes Into Focus. Why It's Finally Hitting Alphabet's Stock\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Dow Jones </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2024-11-22 07:45</p>\n</div>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>The U.S. Department of Justice has aggressively pursued Google as a monopolist in recent years, going back to the first Trump administration. And it&#39;s gotten a federal judge to rule in its favor.</p><p>But the DOJ&#39;s full intentions weren&#39;t fully clear until late last night when the department filed specific remedies that it would like to see the U.S. District judge impose. The DOJ is out for a pound of flesh.</p><p>While media reports had telegraphed the government&#39;s demand to sever Chrome and Android from Google, the filing went much further. The government has a set of demands that go deeply into the way Google does business, and it seems to be spooking investors. Until now, shares of Google-parent Alphabet have largely escaped regulatory worry. But on Thursday, the stock was down 4.7%.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/2347baa2536c44f072e18ffba04106cc\" tg-width=\"790\" tg-height=\"845\"/></p><p>Here&#39;s why investors are nervous:</p><p>An end to search payments: The payments that Google makes to be the default on mobile devices were at the heart of the DOJ&#39;s case. Most prominent among these are Google&#39;s payouts to Apple, which were pegged at $20 billion in 2022 during the trail. That number represented 16% of Google&#39;s cost-of-revenue. But they&#39;re also material to Apple, comprising 5% of its 2022 revenue. Assuming that stream of payments all falls to the bottom line, it would have been roughly 21% of Apple&#39;s net income that year.</p><p>It&#39;s not clear how Apple would replace that income, though, for now investors don&#39;t seem particularly worried. Apple shares were up slightly on Wednesday.</p><p>Google also makes payments to Android smartphone providers to ensure its software is preloaded on phones, and that its search is the default option. If the DOJ gets its way, those payments would also be banned.</p><p>These payments to the smartphone makers and others are what Google calls its &#34;traffic acquisition costs.&#34; They totaled $40 billion in the first nine months of 2024, or 38% of Google&#39;s cost of revenue. If the company was banned from making these payments, Alphabet&#39;s gross margins would rise substantially immediately. On the downside, without the payments, Google could lose search market share, thereby limiting advertising revenue down the road. That impact is long-term and uncertain.</p><p>The ban goes beyond third-party payments. The DOJ has said it wants to stop Google from using its search engine as the default option on its own line of Pixel smartphones.</p><p>The DOJ wants the keys to the castle: The DOJ&#39;s proposed remedy would force Google to share its most important data with rivals, including well-heeled ones like Microsoft. One of Google&#39;s primary advantages would be lost -- its treasure trove of exclusive data, including its search index, ad data, and user data. These large data sets are the foundation of Google&#39;s success.</p><p>The Enforcement: Perhaps the most intrusive part of the proposal is the DOJ&#39;s recommendation to create a technical committee that would oversee Google&#39;s compliance with the judge&#39;s ruling. The committee would be composed of five members, with a nomination process that almost guarantees the government would control a majority of the committee.</p><p>The group would have broad powers to oversee Google, including interviewing employees, and accessing all documents, servers, and employee devices on request. The committee would also get to see Google&#39;s source code and algorithms, Google&#39;s most prized intellectual property.</p><p>If the DOJ gets its way, most of the remedies would be in place for 10 years.</p><p>On Thursday, Google had a blunt response to the government&#39;s proposals: &#34;DOJ had a chance to propose remedies related to the issue in this case, &#34; the company said in a blog post. &#34;Instead, DOJ chose to push a radical interventionist agenda that would harm Americans and America&#39;s global technology leadership.&#34;</p><p>Next up: The court is scheduled to decide on the penalty phase of the Google trial in April, with a final ruling due in August. U.S. District Judge Amit Mehta could choose to reject some or all of the DOJ&#39;s suggested remedies.</p><p>Any actual enforcement could take years to play out. Google has already declared that it will appeal, and Mehta could decide to stay any remedies during the appeal, a process that could stretch out for years.</p><p>The wild card: In the meantime, there is a new administration coming to the White House in January, and new appointees at the DOJ. Jonathan Kanter, the DOJ&#39;s lead on its cases against Google, will likely be replaced. But it&#39;s important to remember that this case originated in 2020 under the first Trump administration and it includes 49 states as co-plaintiffs. Most of these states have Republican Attorneys General.</p><p>No one knows how a new DOJ would handle the case.</p><p>Many on Wall Street remain doubtful the DOJ&#39;s proposal will come to fruition.</p><p>&#34;We do not see a breakup in the next few years,&#34; Dan Ives of Wedbush told Barron&#39;s on Thursday. &#34;We see business model tweaks and also a much different tone from the Trump administration around Big Tech on the horizon.&#34;</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://dowjonesnews.com/newdjn/logon.aspx?AL=N","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2485444956","content_text":"The U.S. Department of Justice has aggressively pursued Google as a monopolist in recent years, going back to the first Trump administration. And it's gotten a federal judge to rule in its favor.But the DOJ's full intentions weren't fully clear until late last night when the department filed specific remedies that it would like to see the U.S. District judge impose. The DOJ is out for a pound of flesh.While media reports had telegraphed the government's demand to sever Chrome and Android from Google, the filing went much further. The government has a set of demands that go deeply into the way Google does business, and it seems to be spooking investors. Until now, shares of Google-parent Alphabet have largely escaped regulatory worry. But on Thursday, the stock was down 4.7%.Here's why investors are nervous:An end to search payments: The payments that Google makes to be the default on mobile devices were at the heart of the DOJ's case. Most prominent among these are Google's payouts to Apple, which were pegged at $20 billion in 2022 during the trail. That number represented 16% of Google's cost-of-revenue. But they're also material to Apple, comprising 5% of its 2022 revenue. Assuming that stream of payments all falls to the bottom line, it would have been roughly 21% of Apple's net income that year.It's not clear how Apple would replace that income, though, for now investors don't seem particularly worried. Apple shares were up slightly on Wednesday.Google also makes payments to Android smartphone providers to ensure its software is preloaded on phones, and that its search is the default option. If the DOJ gets its way, those payments would also be banned.These payments to the smartphone makers and others are what Google calls its \"traffic acquisition costs.\" They totaled $40 billion in the first nine months of 2024, or 38% of Google's cost of revenue. If the company was banned from making these payments, Alphabet's gross margins would rise substantially immediately. On the downside, without the payments, Google could lose search market share, thereby limiting advertising revenue down the road. That impact is long-term and uncertain.The ban goes beyond third-party payments. The DOJ has said it wants to stop Google from using its search engine as the default option on its own line of Pixel smartphones.The DOJ wants the keys to the castle: The DOJ's proposed remedy would force Google to share its most important data with rivals, including well-heeled ones like Microsoft. One of Google's primary advantages would be lost -- its treasure trove of exclusive data, including its search index, ad data, and user data. These large data sets are the foundation of Google's success.The Enforcement: Perhaps the most intrusive part of the proposal is the DOJ's recommendation to create a technical committee that would oversee Google's compliance with the judge's ruling. The committee would be composed of five members, with a nomination process that almost guarantees the government would control a majority of the committee.The group would have broad powers to oversee Google, including interviewing employees, and accessing all documents, servers, and employee devices on request. The committee would also get to see Google's source code and algorithms, Google's most prized intellectual property.If the DOJ gets its way, most of the remedies would be in place for 10 years.On Thursday, Google had a blunt response to the government's proposals: \"DOJ had a chance to propose remedies related to the issue in this case, \" the company said in a blog post. \"Instead, DOJ chose to push a radical interventionist agenda that would harm Americans and America's global technology leadership.\"Next up: The court is scheduled to decide on the penalty phase of the Google trial in April, with a final ruling due in August. U.S. District Judge Amit Mehta could choose to reject some or all of the DOJ's suggested remedies.Any actual enforcement could take years to play out. Google has already declared that it will appeal, and Mehta could decide to stay any remedies during the appeal, a process that could stretch out for years.The wild card: In the meantime, there is a new administration coming to the White House in January, and new appointees at the DOJ. Jonathan Kanter, the DOJ's lead on its cases against Google, will likely be replaced. But it's important to remember that this case originated in 2020 under the first Trump administration and it includes 49 states as co-plaintiffs. Most of these states have Republican Attorneys General.No one knows how a new DOJ would handle the case.Many on Wall Street remain doubtful the DOJ's proposal will come to fruition.\"We do not see a breakup in the next few years,\" Dan Ives of Wedbush told Barron's on Thursday. \"We see business model tweaks and also a much different tone from the Trump administration around Big Tech on the horizon.\"","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":568,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":373241717743784,"gmtCreate":1732152928778,"gmtModify":1732152932348,"author":{"id":"3574807189087941","authorId":"3574807189087941","name":"Icywinddale","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/3bd2fbf9d90e26b2f600b2c5d7c54244","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574807189087941","authorIdStr":"3574807189087941"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"nonsense","listText":"nonsense","text":"nonsense","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/373241717743784","repostId":"2485567109","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2485567109","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1732149460,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2485567109?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2024-11-21 08:37","market":"hk","language":"en","title":"Nvidia: Triple Play Not Enough To Justify $3.6T Valuation (Rating Downgrade)","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2485567109","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Seeking AlphaAnd, with the AI spending boom still in full swing, Nvidia's upcoming Q3 2024 report on 20th November is likely to be robust.  How Did Nvidia Fare In Q3 FY2025?With Nvidia reporting $35.1B in revenues  and $0.81 in normalized EPS  for Q3 FY2025, I think it is fair to conclude that the semiconductor behemoth eased past consensus street estimates on top and bottom-line estimates.   Nvidia Investor Relations In Jensen Huang's words -   The age of AI is in full steam, propelling a global shift to NVIDIA computing. Demand for Hopper and anticipation for Blackwell — in full production — are incredible as foundation model makers scale pretraining, post-training and inference. AI is trans","content":"<html><body><ul><li>NVIDIA Corporation surpassed Q3 FY2025 expectations with $35.1B in revenue and $0.81 EPS, driven by strong Data Center segment performance.</li><li>Despite robust results, concerns linger over supply constraints for Hopper and Blackwell GPUs, and ongoing gross margin contraction.</li><li>Nvidia's stock remains overvalued at $145 per share, with a 5-year expected CAGR of ~3.4%, falling short of my investment hurdle rate.</li></ul><p><figure><picture> <img fetchpriority=\"high\" height=\"1024px\" sizes=\"(max-width: 768px) calc(100vw - 36px), (max-width: 1024px) calc(100vw - 132px), (max-width: 1200px) calc(66.6vw - 72px), 600px\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1412721464/image_1412721464.jpg?io=getty-c-w750\" srcset=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1412721464/image_1412721464.jpg?io=getty-c-w1536 1536w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1412721464/image_1412721464.jpg?io=getty-c-w1280 1280w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1412721464/image_1412721464.jpg?io=getty-c-w1080 1080w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1412721464/image_1412721464.jpg?io=getty-c-w750 750w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1412721464/image_1412721464.jpg?io=getty-c-w640 640w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1412721464/image_1412721464.jpg?io=getty-c-w480 480w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1412721464/image_1412721464.jpg?io=getty-c-w320 320w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1412721464/image_1412721464.jpg?io=getty-c-w240 240w\" width=\"1536px\"/> </picture><figcaption> <p>BING-JHEN HONG</p></figcaption></figure></p> <div></div> <h2>Introduction</h2> <p>In my article “Magnificent 7 Are Alive And Well, But A Rest Is Inevitable,” I foresaw a robust Q3 FY2025 report from NVIDIA Corporation (<span>NASDAQ:NVDA</span>) (<span>NEOE:NVDA:CA</span>):</p> <blockquote> <p><em>Over the past two to three decades, \"Mag-7\" tech conglomerates have continuously<span> delivered disruptive innovation and proven themselves to be growth compounding engines. Today, each of these businesses rake in annual revenues of more than $100B; however, scale isn't holding back growth due to past re-investments. Now, the capital allocation at \"Mag-7\" companies has undoubtedly shifted towards capital return in recent years, aggressive re-investments continue - with CAPEX to Revenue for this group ranging from 10-20% [Apple is an exception] and R&amp;D to Revenue ranging from 5-30%.</span></em></p> <figure contenteditable=\"false\"><picture> <img contenteditable=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2024/11/14/saupload_059d42c5038af5c3e95298f0e1393aff.png\"/> </picture><figcaption><p><span>YCharts</span></p></figcaption></figure><figure contenteditable=\"false\"><picture> <img contenteditable=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2024/11/14/saupload_5feb35eba86ed72e76dbc2132999500c.png\"/> </picture><figcaption><p><span>YCharts</span></p></figcaption></figure><p><em>As you may know, a huge chunk of this big tech CAPEX spending is going towards GenAI infrastructure - GPUs and long-lived real estate leases, especially in the case of cloud infrastructure providers, i.e., Amazon [AWS], Alphabet [Google Cloud Platform], and Microsoft [Azure]. And based on management commentary, this AI rush is set to continue in 2025:</em></p> <ul><li><em>Hyperscaler capex forecasts to hit $300B in 2025: Morgan Stanley</em></li></ul> <p><em>In addition to unlocking GenAI capabilities for other organizations, these tech giants are using these resources to improve their existing products and services. For example, Alphabet and Microsoft are redefining the Search market with GenAI-powered user experiences, Meta is using Gen-AI across its Family of Apps to boost ad performance and spending billions on Reality Labs to build the next big computing platform, and Tesla is attempting to solve vehicle autonomy using a cluster of 100,000+ GPUs.</em></p> <p><em>Now, given its dominant positioning in the GPU market, Nvidia is receiving almost all of this CAPEX spending as revenue!</em></p> <figure contenteditable=\"false\"><picture> <span><img contenteditable=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2024/11/14/51572009-17316338825443873.png\"/></span> </picture><figcaption><p><span></span>Seeking Alpha</p></figcaption></figure><p><em>And, with the AI spending boom still in full swing, Nvidia's upcoming Q3 2024 report on 20th November is likely to be robust.</em></p> </blockquote> <h2>How Did Nvidia Fare In Q3 FY2025?</h2> <p>With Nvidia reporting $35.1B in revenues (up +94% y/y, vs. est. $33.1B) and $0.81 in normalized EPS (vs. est. $0.75) for Q3 FY2025, I think it is fair to conclude that the semiconductor behemoth eased past consensus street estimates on top and bottom-line estimates.</p> <p><figure contenteditable=\"false\"><picture> <span><img contenteditable=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2024/11/20/51572009-17321384876649716.png\"/></span> </picture><figcaption><p><span>Nvidia Investor Relations</span></p></figcaption></figure></p> <p><strong>In Jensen Huang's words - </strong></p> <blockquote> <p><em>The age of AI is in full steam, propelling a global shift to NVIDIA computing. Demand for Hopper and anticipation for Blackwell — in full production — are incredible as foundation model makers scale pretraining, post-training and inference.</em></p> <p><em>AI is transforming every industry, company and country. Enterprises are adopting agentic AI to revolutionize workflows. Industrial robotics investments are surging with breakthroughs in physical AI. And countries have awakened to the importance of developing their national AI and infrastructure</em></p> </blockquote> <p>While Nvidia's quarterly gross margin moderated to 75% in Q3 FY2025, hypergrowth in Data Center revenues [$30.77B, +112% y/y] continued unabated as “Compute” revenues soared to $27.64B [+132% y/y] on the back of strong demand for Nvidia's Hopper GPUs, totally overpowering a -15% q/q decline in “Networking” revenues.</p> <p><figure contenteditable=\"false\"><picture> <span><img contenteditable=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2024/11/20/51572009-17321391274688108.png\"/></span> </picture><figcaption><p><span>Nvidia Investor Relations</span></p></figcaption></figure></p> <p>Given the outsized weight of Nvidia's Data Center segment within the business, Gaming, Professional Visualization, and Automotive segments seem irrelevant at this point; however, each of these segments saw healthy y/y growth in Q3 FY2025.</p> <p>Now, buoyed by its robust Q3 performance and strong demand for both Hopper and Blackwell, Nvidia's management have provided above-consensus sales guidance of $37.5B for Q4 FY2025 — completing Nvidia's 8th consecutive triple play, i.e., “double beat and raise” quarter.</p> <p><figure contenteditable=\"false\"><picture> <span><img contenteditable=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2024/11/20/51572009-1732140664575188.png\"/></span> </picture><figcaption><p><span>Nvidia Investor Relations</span></p></figcaption></figure></p> <p>That said, Nvidia's Q4 revenue guide did fall short of buy-side whisper number of $39B, and the semiconductor giant expects ongoing gross margin contraction to continue next quarter, with Q4 non-GAAP GM expected to land at 73.5%, down from 75% in Q3.</p> <p>And as I said in one of my previous reports,</p> <blockquote> <p><em>Nvidia's gross margins contracting to a low 70% level could be an indication of deteriorating pricing power [despite Nvidia's plan of generating SaaS revenues with Blackwell GPUs].</em></p> <p>Source: Nvidia Q1 FY2025: AI Party Rolls On, But I Refuse To Dance.</p> </blockquote> <p>Now, lately, we have seen reports about “overheating” issues tied to Blackwell servers. However, as per Nvidia's latest quarterly report, Blackwell production remains on track, with shipments set to begin in Q4 FY2025 and ramp in FY2026. Furthermore, Huang &amp; Co. called out “supply constraints” for both Hopper and Blackwell, dismissing concerns around near-term demand outlook despite projected revenue growth deceleration.</p> <p>That said, the semiconductor industry is cyclical in nature, and Nvidia's largest customers — cloud hyperscalers [50% of revenues] — are building their own in-house AI chips and partnering with other players [like Advanced Micro Devices (AMD)] in the industry. Hence, I think Nvidia's medium-to-long-term demand [growth and margins] remains questionable.</p> <p>If you have been following my work on Nvidia, you know that I do not hold a long position in this counter. While my opinion could still have an element of a bias, I am flabbergasted by Nvidia's aggressive stock buybacks, which rose to $11B in Q3:</p> <p><figure contenteditable=\"false\"><picture> <span><img contenteditable=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2024/11/20/51572009-17321422410015776.png\"/></span> </picture><figcaption><p><span>Nvidia Investor Relations</span></p></figcaption></figure></p> <p>Yes, Nvidia is experiencing a massive AI windfall right now, with Q3 FCF reaching a record high $16.78B and “cash and short-term investments” soaring to $38.5B. However, if and when the historical cyclicality associated with semis strikes again, stock buybacks at ~20x FY2025E revenue [or ~$3.6T market cap] will look absolutely horrendous. I would rather see Nvidia stockpiling cash through this period (if no better use of capital is possible) ahead of the next down cycle in semis.</p> <h2>Concluding Thoughts: Is NVDA Stock A Buy, Sell, Or Hold After Q3 Earnings?</h2> <p>In light of Nvidia's Q3 FY2025 report, I am updating my valuation model's revenue base to FY2025E revenue of $130B [baking in a $1.5B sales beat on management's guidance for Q4 FY2025]. All other assumptions have been held constant from our last assessment and are self-explanatory, but if you have any questions, please share them in the comments section below.</p> <p><strong>Here's my updated valuation model for Nvidia:</strong></p> <p><figure contenteditable=\"false\"><picture> <span><img contenteditable=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2024/11/20/51572009-17321436849318805.png\"/></span> </picture><figcaption><p>TQI Valuation Model <span>(Free to use at TQIG.org)</span></p></figcaption></figure><figure contenteditable=\"false\"><picture> <span><img contenteditable=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2024/11/20/51572009-17321437733873487.png\"/></span> </picture><figcaption><p>TQI Valuation Model <span>(Free to use at TQIG.org)</span></p></figcaption></figure></p> <p>Nvidia Corporation remains the most obvious “picks and shovels” play in the AI gold rush; however, a lot of future success is already baked into Nvidia's current stock price, with TQI's fair value estimate of $80.45 per share pointing to a downside of -45% from current levels.</p> <p>More importantly, Nvidia's long-term risk/reward [derived from aggressive assumptions for long-term growth, future margins, and exit multiples] as measured by 5-year expected CAGR return has deteriorated down to 3.44%; well under risk-free treasury yields of 4-4.5%. In the past, I have rated Nvidia a “Hold;” however, with NVDA now being less attractive than risk-free treasuries, I now view it as a tactical “Sell.”</p> <p><strong>Key Takeaway:</strong> I rate Nvidia a tactical “Sell” in the $140s.</p> <div></div> <p>Thanks for reading, and happy investing! Please share your thoughts, questions, or concerns in the comments section below.</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Nvidia: Triple Play Not Enough To Justify $3.6T Valuation (Rating Downgrade)</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNvidia: Triple Play Not Enough To Justify $3.6T Valuation (Rating Downgrade)\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-11-21 08:37 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4739158-nvidia-triple-play-not-enough-to-justify-3-6t-valuation-rating-downgrade><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>NVIDIA Corporation surpassed Q3 FY2025 expectations with $35.1B in revenue and $0.81 EPS, driven by strong Data Center segment performance.Despite robust results, concerns linger over supply ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4739158-nvidia-triple-play-not-enough-to-justify-3-6t-valuation-rating-downgrade\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1412721464/image_1412721464.jpg","relate_stocks":{"NVDA":"英伟达"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4739158-nvidia-triple-play-not-enough-to-justify-3-6t-valuation-rating-downgrade","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"2485567109","content_text":"NVIDIA Corporation surpassed Q3 FY2025 expectations with $35.1B in revenue and $0.81 EPS, driven by strong Data Center segment performance.Despite robust results, concerns linger over supply constraints for Hopper and Blackwell GPUs, and ongoing gross margin contraction.Nvidia's stock remains overvalued at $145 per share, with a 5-year expected CAGR of ~3.4%, falling short of my investment hurdle rate.   BING-JHEN HONG  Introduction In my article “Magnificent 7 Are Alive And Well, But A Rest Is Inevitable,” I foresaw a robust Q3 FY2025 report from NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ:NVDA) (NEOE:NVDA:CA):  Over the past two to three decades, \"Mag-7\" tech conglomerates have continuously delivered disruptive innovation and proven themselves to be growth compounding engines. Today, each of these businesses rake in annual revenues of more than $100B; however, scale isn't holding back growth due to past re-investments. Now, the capital allocation at \"Mag-7\" companies has undoubtedly shifted towards capital return in recent years, aggressive re-investments continue - with CAPEX to Revenue for this group ranging from 10-20% [Apple is an exception] and R&D to Revenue ranging from 5-30%.   YCharts  YChartsAs you may know, a huge chunk of this big tech CAPEX spending is going towards GenAI infrastructure - GPUs and long-lived real estate leases, especially in the case of cloud infrastructure providers, i.e., Amazon [AWS], Alphabet [Google Cloud Platform], and Microsoft [Azure]. And based on management commentary, this AI rush is set to continue in 2025: Hyperscaler capex forecasts to hit $300B in 2025: Morgan Stanley In addition to unlocking GenAI capabilities for other organizations, these tech giants are using these resources to improve their existing products and services. For example, Alphabet and Microsoft are redefining the Search market with GenAI-powered user experiences, Meta is using Gen-AI across its Family of Apps to boost ad performance and spending billions on Reality Labs to build the next big computing platform, and Tesla is attempting to solve vehicle autonomy using a cluster of 100,000+ GPUs. Now, given its dominant positioning in the GPU market, Nvidia is receiving almost all of this CAPEX spending as revenue!   Seeking AlphaAnd, with the AI spending boom still in full swing, Nvidia's upcoming Q3 2024 report on 20th November is likely to be robust.  How Did Nvidia Fare In Q3 FY2025? With Nvidia reporting $35.1B in revenues (up +94% y/y, vs. est. $33.1B) and $0.81 in normalized EPS (vs. est. $0.75) for Q3 FY2025, I think it is fair to conclude that the semiconductor behemoth eased past consensus street estimates on top and bottom-line estimates.   Nvidia Investor Relations In Jensen Huang's words -   The age of AI is in full steam, propelling a global shift to NVIDIA computing. Demand for Hopper and anticipation for Blackwell — in full production — are incredible as foundation model makers scale pretraining, post-training and inference. AI is transforming every industry, company and country. Enterprises are adopting agentic AI to revolutionize workflows. Industrial robotics investments are surging with breakthroughs in physical AI. And countries have awakened to the importance of developing their national AI and infrastructure  While Nvidia's quarterly gross margin moderated to 75% in Q3 FY2025, hypergrowth in Data Center revenues [$30.77B, +112% y/y] continued unabated as “Compute” revenues soared to $27.64B [+132% y/y] on the back of strong demand for Nvidia's Hopper GPUs, totally overpowering a -15% q/q decline in “Networking” revenues.   Nvidia Investor Relations Given the outsized weight of Nvidia's Data Center segment within the business, Gaming, Professional Visualization, and Automotive segments seem irrelevant at this point; however, each of these segments saw healthy y/y growth in Q3 FY2025. Now, buoyed by its robust Q3 performance and strong demand for both Hopper and Blackwell, Nvidia's management have provided above-consensus sales guidance of $37.5B for Q4 FY2025 — completing Nvidia's 8th consecutive triple play, i.e., “double beat and raise” quarter.   Nvidia Investor Relations That said, Nvidia's Q4 revenue guide did fall short of buy-side whisper number of $39B, and the semiconductor giant expects ongoing gross margin contraction to continue next quarter, with Q4 non-GAAP GM expected to land at 73.5%, down from 75% in Q3. And as I said in one of my previous reports,  Nvidia's gross margins contracting to a low 70% level could be an indication of deteriorating pricing power [despite Nvidia's plan of generating SaaS revenues with Blackwell GPUs]. Source: Nvidia Q1 FY2025: AI Party Rolls On, But I Refuse To Dance.  Now, lately, we have seen reports about “overheating” issues tied to Blackwell servers. However, as per Nvidia's latest quarterly report, Blackwell production remains on track, with shipments set to begin in Q4 FY2025 and ramp in FY2026. Furthermore, Huang & Co. called out “supply constraints” for both Hopper and Blackwell, dismissing concerns around near-term demand outlook despite projected revenue growth deceleration. That said, the semiconductor industry is cyclical in nature, and Nvidia's largest customers — cloud hyperscalers [50% of revenues] — are building their own in-house AI chips and partnering with other players [like Advanced Micro Devices (AMD)] in the industry. Hence, I think Nvidia's medium-to-long-term demand [growth and margins] remains questionable. If you have been following my work on Nvidia, you know that I do not hold a long position in this counter. While my opinion could still have an element of a bias, I am flabbergasted by Nvidia's aggressive stock buybacks, which rose to $11B in Q3:   Nvidia Investor Relations Yes, Nvidia is experiencing a massive AI windfall right now, with Q3 FCF reaching a record high $16.78B and “cash and short-term investments” soaring to $38.5B. However, if and when the historical cyclicality associated with semis strikes again, stock buybacks at ~20x FY2025E revenue [or ~$3.6T market cap] will look absolutely horrendous. I would rather see Nvidia stockpiling cash through this period (if no better use of capital is possible) ahead of the next down cycle in semis. Concluding Thoughts: Is NVDA Stock A Buy, Sell, Or Hold After Q3 Earnings? In light of Nvidia's Q3 FY2025 report, I am updating my valuation model's revenue base to FY2025E revenue of $130B [baking in a $1.5B sales beat on management's guidance for Q4 FY2025]. All other assumptions have been held constant from our last assessment and are self-explanatory, but if you have any questions, please share them in the comments section below. Here's my updated valuation model for Nvidia:   TQI Valuation Model (Free to use at TQIG.org)  TQI Valuation Model (Free to use at TQIG.org) Nvidia Corporation remains the most obvious “picks and shovels” play in the AI gold rush; however, a lot of future success is already baked into Nvidia's current stock price, with TQI's fair value estimate of $80.45 per share pointing to a downside of -45% from current levels. More importantly, Nvidia's long-term risk/reward [derived from aggressive assumptions for long-term growth, future margins, and exit multiples] as measured by 5-year expected CAGR return has deteriorated down to 3.44%; well under risk-free treasury yields of 4-4.5%. In the past, I have rated Nvidia a “Hold;” however, with NVDA now being less attractive than risk-free treasuries, I now view it as a tactical “Sell.” Key Takeaway: I rate Nvidia a tactical “Sell” in the $140s.  Thanks for reading, and happy investing! Please share your thoughts, questions, or concerns in the comments section below.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":345,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":365986993258656,"gmtCreate":1730352866695,"gmtModify":1730352870520,"author":{"id":"3574807189087941","authorId":"3574807189087941","name":"Icywinddale","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/3bd2fbf9d90e26b2f600b2c5d7c54244","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574807189087941","authorIdStr":"3574807189087941"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Low level&nbsp;","listText":"Low level&nbsp;","text":"Low level","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/365986993258656","repostId":"1107275997","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1107275997","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1730347534,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1107275997?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2024-10-31 12:05","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Nvidia: Forward Earnings Looking More Uncertain","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1107275997","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryNvidia Corporation’s forward EPS estimates are one of the most uncertain among the Magnificent 7 stocks and among other chip stocks.The highest EPS estimate for the fiscal year ending Jan 2027 ","content":"<html><head></head><body><h2 id=\"id_2924817183\">Summary</h2><ul style=\"\"><li><p>Nvidia Corporation’s forward EPS estimates are one of the most uncertain among the Magnificent 7 stocks and among other chip stocks.</p></li><li><p>The highest EPS estimate for the fiscal year ending Jan 2027 is $7.29 which is 4 times the lowest EPS estimate of $1.81.</p></li><li><p>Other big tech stocks have a variation of 20% to 60% between low and high EPS estimates.</p></li><li><p>This shows the uncertainty regarding future market share and margins for Nvidia as AMD, Intel, and other tech players launch their own AI chips.</p></li><li><p>The recent bull run has made NVDA stock expensive while the forward earnings are uncertain, which can cause a major correction in the stock.</p></li></ul><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/f1cd66fb76fb9c3656779aa6ac145d6d\" alt=\"Nvidia headquarters in Santa Clara, California, USA\" title=\"Nvidia headquarters in Santa Clara, California, USA\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"500\"/><span>Nvidia headquarters in Santa Clara, California, USA</span></p><p></p><p><strong>Nvidia Corporation</strong> (NASDAQ:NVDA) stock has been one of the best performers over the last two years since the first major large language models, or LLMs, came to the market and launched a major AI-driven bull run. However, there is a major red flag in Nvidia due to uncertainty in forward earnings. There is a very high variation between the bull and bear cases for the stock. Most of this variation comes due to uncertainty in future market share and the ability of Nvidia to retain its juicy margins. The company has been able to report over 70% gross margins for the past few quarters. In the previous article, it was mentioned that the demand side for AI chips can face challenges as hyperscalers optimize their AI investments.</p><p>Competitors like Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) and Intel (INTC) are putting their best efforts into launching better AI chips. Being the underdog in this segment, they would be ready to earn lower margins, making the overall segment more competitive. Other big tech companies have been working on their own AI chips, and they have the talent and resources to deliver some excellent products. Nvidia&#39;s CUDA moat is still strong, but the uncertainty in forward earnings should be a warning for investors. At the same time, the stock is trading at close to 30 times the consensus EPS estimate for the fiscal year ending January 2027, which is one of the highest within the tech sector. According to this metric, Nvidia is 75% pricier than Alphabet (GOOGL) (GOOG), which can cause a short-term correction in Nvidia stock.</p><h2 id=\"id_564023179\">Uncertain forward earnings are a big red flag</h2><p>Nvidia&#39;s has delivered great results over the last few quarters, which has helped the stock deliver over 130% price growth in YTD. However, future earnings are becoming more uncertain as different analysts have very different forward outlooks for the company. We might disagree over the views of some analysts, but the huge variation in future EPS estimates is a clear warning sign for investors. As shown below, none of the other big tech stocks have anything close to Nvidia&#39;s forward earnings uncertainty.</p><p><strong>Nvidia&#39;s EPS estimate</strong></p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/d3d9b95d53a545ead96236dc2753a978\" alt=\"Nvidia&#39;s forward earnings estimate.\" title=\"Nvidia&#39;s forward earnings estimate.\" tg-width=\"1036\" tg-height=\"181\"/><span>Nvidia&#39;s forward earnings estimate.</span></p><p></p><p>A total of 28 analysts have given their estimates for Nvidia&#39;s EPS for the fiscal year ending Jan 2027. The lowest EPS estimate is $1.81 while the highest estimate is $7.29. Hence, the highest forward EPS estimate is 4X that of the low estimate. All the analysts have done a very in-depth analysis of the company, and yet, we see a massive variation in future earnings estimates. For most of the other tech stocks, the variation in low and high estimates is only 20%-60%. Higher forward EPS uncertainty should make the stock cheaper, but on the contrary, Nvidia is trading at one of the highest forward P/E ratios.</p><p><strong>AMD&#39;s EPS estimate</strong></p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/03b8bf26eecf70de5756a2eee12c0149\" alt=\"AMD&#39;s forward EPS estimate.\" title=\"AMD&#39;s forward EPS estimate.\" tg-width=\"873\" tg-height=\"181\"/><span>AMD&#39;s forward EPS estimate.</span></p><p>AMD&#39;s EPS estimate for fiscal year ending Dec 2026 shows the high EPS estimate is 60% more than low estimate.</p><p><strong>Google&#39;s EPS estimate</strong></p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/3212c7fcc43d67625db4c2f74eab4f61\" alt=\"Google forward EPS estimate.\" title=\"Google forward EPS estimate.\" tg-width=\"1048\" tg-height=\"185\"/><span>Google forward EPS estimate.</span></p><p>Alphabet&#39;s EPS estimate for fiscal year ending Dec 2026 shows the high EPS estimate is only 23% more than low estimate. This clearly shows the certainty in forward earnings for Alphabet.</p><p>Higher uncertainty is a sign that analysts are not sure about the ability of Nvidia to retain its current margins as competitive pressure increases over the coming years.</p><h3 id=\"id_3471036033\">Do not underestimate AMD and other competitors</h3><p>In the recent earnings call, AMD increased its 2024 revenue forecast for AI chips to $5 billion from a previous forecast of $4.5 billion. Over this year, AMD&#39;s estimate for AI chip revenue has steadily increased. Back in late 2023, AMD forecasted that it could deliver $2 billion in revenue for AI chips in 2024. It is highly likely that AMD could deliver over $10-$12 billion in total AI revenue for 2025. At this scale, it could be close to 10% of Nvidia&#39;s revenue base from its Data Center segment. New products and aggressive pricing can certainly increase the attraction of AMD&#39;s AI chips.</p><p>Intel is facing an existential crisis as it continues to face headwinds in its foundry business and more questions from investors. The company is leaning on its Gaudi 3 AI chips to improve the sentiment towards the stock. Being an underdog in this segment, Intel could undersell Nvidia by a significant amount.</p><p>Big tech cloud companies like Amazon have been building their own AI chips and have reported that the price/performance metric is 50% cheaper than Nvidia. AI chips are one of the biggest expenses for hyperscalers and if they can reduce the cost of this item, it will help in improving their competitive position and boosting their own margins. It should be noted that Nvidia had earlier mentioned that it receives close to 40%-45% of total Data Center revenue from these hyperscalers.</p><h3 id=\"id_3652408428\">Beating expectations is not enough</h3><p>Nvidia stock hit close to $140 in June 2024. Since then, the stock has seen big swings with 30% correction and has now returned to earlier peak. This is even though the company has been able to easily beat the earnings estimate for the past two quarters.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/c9ce05bf9b215bf61b6798cc66b3c596\" alt=\"Nvidia&#39;s earnings estimate in the upcoming quarter.\" title=\"Nvidia&#39;s earnings estimate in the upcoming quarter.\" tg-width=\"1046\" tg-height=\"246\"/><span>Nvidia&#39;s earnings estimate in the upcoming quarter.</span></p><p>Even a very good earnings result does not guarantee bullish sentiment for the stock because of the current price. Nvidia would need to present a strong argument to sustain the bullish momentum. As mentioned above, there is already a massive variation in the forward earnings estimate for the company. The bear case could easily take over if the company does not meet the earnings expectations or does not beat the expectations by a big enough margin.</p><h3 id=\"id_1561503892\">Nvidia stock is pricier than other stocks</h3><p>The huge variation in forward earnings is already a big red flag for the stock. But even the most bullish EPS estimate for Nvidia will continue to give a pricey valuation multiple for the company. The highest EPS estimate for Nvidia for the fiscal year ending Jan 2027 is $7.2 which gives the forward P/E multiple of close to 20. On the other hand, the lowest EPS estimate for Alphabet for the fiscal year ending Dec 2026 is $9.05 giving the stock a forward P/E multiple of less than 19. Hence, even the most bullish case for Nvidia makes the stock pricier than Alphabet&#39;s lowest EPS estimate for 2 fiscal years ahead. A lot can change in the next 2 years, and I believe Nvidia stock does not offer a sufficient margin of safety.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/555184544ef3b6a44f67c8e8fd587927\" alt=\"Comparison of Nvidia and Alphabet&#39;s EPS and forward PE.\" title=\"Comparison of Nvidia and Alphabet&#39;s EPS and forward PE.\" tg-width=\"974\" tg-height=\"397\"/><span>Comparison of Nvidia and Alphabet&#39;s EPS and forward PE.</span></p><p>There are other options within the AI industry, and Nvidia is expensive at the current price. Investors looking for a more certain forward earnings trend could look at Alphabet, TSMC, and other alternatives.</p><h2 id=\"id_83402496\">Investor Takeaway</h2><p>Nvidia&#39;s forward earnings projections have the highest variation among the big tech stocks. The EPS projection for fiscal year ending Jan 2027 varies from $1.8 to $7.2. Hence, the high case is 4X the low estimate. For most of the other tech companies, the high case is 20% to 50% higher than the low case. Higher variation shows the uncertainty in future earnings as the company faces intense competition from AMD, Intel, and other big tech companies.</p><p>It is highly likely that Nvidia&#39;s market share will contract over the coming quarters, which will also squeeze the margins. The forward P/E multiple for 2 fiscal years ahead for Nvidia is 75% higher than Alphabet. The stock is quite expensive, and even an earnings beat might not be enough to deliver a further bullish run.</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Nvidia: Forward Earnings Looking More Uncertain</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNvidia: Forward Earnings Looking More Uncertain\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-10-31 12:05 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4731124-nvidia-forward-earnings-looking-more-uncertain><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryNvidia Corporation’s forward EPS estimates are one of the most uncertain among the Magnificent 7 stocks and among other chip stocks.The highest EPS estimate for the fiscal year ending Jan 2027 ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4731124-nvidia-forward-earnings-looking-more-uncertain\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NVDA":"英伟达"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4731124-nvidia-forward-earnings-looking-more-uncertain","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1107275997","content_text":"SummaryNvidia Corporation’s forward EPS estimates are one of the most uncertain among the Magnificent 7 stocks and among other chip stocks.The highest EPS estimate for the fiscal year ending Jan 2027 is $7.29 which is 4 times the lowest EPS estimate of $1.81.Other big tech stocks have a variation of 20% to 60% between low and high EPS estimates.This shows the uncertainty regarding future market share and margins for Nvidia as AMD, Intel, and other tech players launch their own AI chips.The recent bull run has made NVDA stock expensive while the forward earnings are uncertain, which can cause a major correction in the stock.Nvidia headquarters in Santa Clara, California, USANvidia Corporation (NASDAQ:NVDA) stock has been one of the best performers over the last two years since the first major large language models, or LLMs, came to the market and launched a major AI-driven bull run. However, there is a major red flag in Nvidia due to uncertainty in forward earnings. There is a very high variation between the bull and bear cases for the stock. Most of this variation comes due to uncertainty in future market share and the ability of Nvidia to retain its juicy margins. The company has been able to report over 70% gross margins for the past few quarters. In the previous article, it was mentioned that the demand side for AI chips can face challenges as hyperscalers optimize their AI investments.Competitors like Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) and Intel (INTC) are putting their best efforts into launching better AI chips. Being the underdog in this segment, they would be ready to earn lower margins, making the overall segment more competitive. Other big tech companies have been working on their own AI chips, and they have the talent and resources to deliver some excellent products. Nvidia's CUDA moat is still strong, but the uncertainty in forward earnings should be a warning for investors. At the same time, the stock is trading at close to 30 times the consensus EPS estimate for the fiscal year ending January 2027, which is one of the highest within the tech sector. According to this metric, Nvidia is 75% pricier than Alphabet (GOOGL) (GOOG), which can cause a short-term correction in Nvidia stock.Uncertain forward earnings are a big red flagNvidia's has delivered great results over the last few quarters, which has helped the stock deliver over 130% price growth in YTD. However, future earnings are becoming more uncertain as different analysts have very different forward outlooks for the company. We might disagree over the views of some analysts, but the huge variation in future EPS estimates is a clear warning sign for investors. As shown below, none of the other big tech stocks have anything close to Nvidia's forward earnings uncertainty.Nvidia's EPS estimateNvidia's forward earnings estimate.A total of 28 analysts have given their estimates for Nvidia's EPS for the fiscal year ending Jan 2027. The lowest EPS estimate is $1.81 while the highest estimate is $7.29. Hence, the highest forward EPS estimate is 4X that of the low estimate. All the analysts have done a very in-depth analysis of the company, and yet, we see a massive variation in future earnings estimates. For most of the other tech stocks, the variation in low and high estimates is only 20%-60%. Higher forward EPS uncertainty should make the stock cheaper, but on the contrary, Nvidia is trading at one of the highest forward P/E ratios.AMD's EPS estimateAMD's forward EPS estimate.AMD's EPS estimate for fiscal year ending Dec 2026 shows the high EPS estimate is 60% more than low estimate.Google's EPS estimateGoogle forward EPS estimate.Alphabet's EPS estimate for fiscal year ending Dec 2026 shows the high EPS estimate is only 23% more than low estimate. This clearly shows the certainty in forward earnings for Alphabet.Higher uncertainty is a sign that analysts are not sure about the ability of Nvidia to retain its current margins as competitive pressure increases over the coming years.Do not underestimate AMD and other competitorsIn the recent earnings call, AMD increased its 2024 revenue forecast for AI chips to $5 billion from a previous forecast of $4.5 billion. Over this year, AMD's estimate for AI chip revenue has steadily increased. Back in late 2023, AMD forecasted that it could deliver $2 billion in revenue for AI chips in 2024. It is highly likely that AMD could deliver over $10-$12 billion in total AI revenue for 2025. At this scale, it could be close to 10% of Nvidia's revenue base from its Data Center segment. New products and aggressive pricing can certainly increase the attraction of AMD's AI chips.Intel is facing an existential crisis as it continues to face headwinds in its foundry business and more questions from investors. The company is leaning on its Gaudi 3 AI chips to improve the sentiment towards the stock. Being an underdog in this segment, Intel could undersell Nvidia by a significant amount.Big tech cloud companies like Amazon have been building their own AI chips and have reported that the price/performance metric is 50% cheaper than Nvidia. AI chips are one of the biggest expenses for hyperscalers and if they can reduce the cost of this item, it will help in improving their competitive position and boosting their own margins. It should be noted that Nvidia had earlier mentioned that it receives close to 40%-45% of total Data Center revenue from these hyperscalers.Beating expectations is not enoughNvidia stock hit close to $140 in June 2024. Since then, the stock has seen big swings with 30% correction and has now returned to earlier peak. This is even though the company has been able to easily beat the earnings estimate for the past two quarters.Nvidia's earnings estimate in the upcoming quarter.Even a very good earnings result does not guarantee bullish sentiment for the stock because of the current price. Nvidia would need to present a strong argument to sustain the bullish momentum. As mentioned above, there is already a massive variation in the forward earnings estimate for the company. The bear case could easily take over if the company does not meet the earnings expectations or does not beat the expectations by a big enough margin.Nvidia stock is pricier than other stocksThe huge variation in forward earnings is already a big red flag for the stock. But even the most bullish EPS estimate for Nvidia will continue to give a pricey valuation multiple for the company. The highest EPS estimate for Nvidia for the fiscal year ending Jan 2027 is $7.2 which gives the forward P/E multiple of close to 20. On the other hand, the lowest EPS estimate for Alphabet for the fiscal year ending Dec 2026 is $9.05 giving the stock a forward P/E multiple of less than 19. Hence, even the most bullish case for Nvidia makes the stock pricier than Alphabet's lowest EPS estimate for 2 fiscal years ahead. A lot can change in the next 2 years, and I believe Nvidia stock does not offer a sufficient margin of safety.Comparison of Nvidia and Alphabet's EPS and forward PE.There are other options within the AI industry, and Nvidia is expensive at the current price. Investors looking for a more certain forward earnings trend could look at Alphabet, TSMC, and other alternatives.Investor TakeawayNvidia's forward earnings projections have the highest variation among the big tech stocks. The EPS projection for fiscal year ending Jan 2027 varies from $1.8 to $7.2. Hence, the high case is 4X the low estimate. For most of the other tech companies, the high case is 20% to 50% higher than the low case. Higher variation shows the uncertainty in future earnings as the company faces intense competition from AMD, Intel, and other big tech companies.It is highly likely that Nvidia's market share will contract over the coming quarters, which will also squeeze the margins. The forward P/E multiple for 2 fiscal years ahead for Nvidia is 75% higher than Alphabet. The stock is quite expensive, and even an earnings beat might not be enough to deliver a further bullish run.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":548,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":353935568728112,"gmtCreate":1727418140095,"gmtModify":1727418991512,"author":{"id":"3574807189087941","authorId":"3574807189087941","name":"Icywinddale","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/3bd2fbf9d90e26b2f600b2c5d7c54244","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574807189087941","authorIdStr":"3574807189087941"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Sucker, did you see MU earning？can't believe such low level article was here.","listText":"Sucker, did you see MU earning？can't believe such low level article was here.","text":"Sucker, did you see MU earning？can't believe such low level article was here.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/353935568728112","repostId":"2470763038","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2470763038","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1727417054,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2470763038?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2024-09-27 14:04","market":"sg","language":"en","title":"Nvidia Is Showing Major Red Flags On The Demand Side","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2470763038","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"The performance of Nvidia Corporation’s stock after the recent earnings result is a strong warning to the bullish investors.The stock had a 20% dip despite beating estimates on almost all major metric","content":"<html><head></head><body><ul style=\"\"><li><p>The performance of Nvidia Corporation’s stock after the recent earnings result is a strong warning to the bullish investors.</p></li><li><p>The stock had a 20% dip despite beating estimates on almost all major metrics.</p></li><li><p>Close to 50% of the data center revenue comes from large cloud providers, who are getting warning signals from Wall Street regarding their capex trajectory.</p></li><li><p>We have not seen a big revenue or margin improvement from cloud providers in the last few earnings, which can force them to rein in their AI spending.</p></li><li><p>The stock is trading at over 26 times forward P/E for the fiscal year ending Jan 2027, and any margin pressure would reduce the upside potential in the stock.</p></li></ul><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/6144f6f01bec9d39bca22c82ac595a7e\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"500\"/></p><p>BING-JHEN HONG</p><p></p><p><strong>Nvidia Corporation&#39;s</strong> (NASDAQ:NVDA) recent earnings result is a big warning for bullish investors and analysts. The company was able to beat estimates on revenue and EPS while also giving strong forward guidance. The revenue surprise was $1.29 billion, which was enormous and showed a strong trajectory in this metric. However, Wall Street ended up correcting the stock by close to 20%. Since the dip, Nvidia has recouped most of the losses and is again close to the $125 level. But we can see several red signals that are flashing and need to be closely looked to gauge the long-term returns potential of the stock. In our previous article, it was mentioned that we would see margin pressure in Nvidia.</p><p>In the Q1 earnings, Nvidia&#39;s CFO mentioned that close to 50% of the data center revenue came from large cloud providers like Amazon&#39;s (AMZN) AWS, Google Cloud (GOOGL) (GOOG), and Microsoft Azure (MSFT). Most of the recent growth in Nvidia&#39;s revenue has been driven by these cloud companies trying to ramp up their AI services. But this has come at a cost of massive capex for even the larger companies. Most of these cloud companies have themselves seen a correction after recent earnings as Wall Street is worried over their capex trajectory. On the other hand, these large cloud providers are not showing a big improvement in their revenue and margin trajectory. If these large players scale back their investment over the coming quarters, we could see a big headwind for Nvidia&#39;s revenue and margin.</p><p>The forward EPS growth projection of Nvidia are not strong. For the fiscal year ending Jan 2027, the consensus EPS estimate is of $4.71 which gives the stock a forward P/E of 26.2. Any margin decline could lead to big EPS downward revisions. Competition from Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) is heating up, and the company is continuously increasing its AI revenue estimate almost every quarter. While Nvidia has a big lead, it is highly likely that it will see strong margin headwinds as other players ramp up their AI chips. Looking at this macro picture, Nvidia stock does not seem to be cheap, and it has a limited upside potential.</p><h3 id=\"id_1545308843\">Looking beyond Nvidia</h3><p>To gauge the growth potential of Nvidia, we need to look at the recent performance of some of its biggest clients. Most of the top management of large cloud providers have been very optimistic about their AI services, but Wall Street is having second doubts about their future projection. We have already seen this in the recent earnings season, where big cloud players have not performed well.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/1a13411b5084427c3632c39a5fbe23c5\" tg-width=\"603\" tg-height=\"124\"/></p><p>Nvidia Filings</p><p></p><p><em>Figure: Nvidia&#39;s CFO remarks in Q1 earnings. Source:</em> <em>Nvidia filings.</em></p><p>In the Q1 earnings, Nvidia&#39;s CFO Colette Kress mentioned that large cloud providers contributed in the mid-40s as a percentage of Nvidia&#39;s Data Center revenue base. If these large cloud providers see a strong backlash from Wall Street due to their AI spending, it will inevitably hurt Nvidia.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/2816e736c09bcd38c332ab7890f3f69e\" tg-width=\"984\" tg-height=\"398\"/></p><p>YCharts</p><p></p><p><em>Figure: Stock performance of top cloud services. Source:</em> <em>YCharts</em></p><p>The big three cloud providers have not fared well in this earnings season. All of them are significantly lagging the broader market. They have company-specific issues, but one of the common bearish arguments for them is the massive capex spending on AI, which has not delivered an improvement in margin and revenue trajectory.</p><p>As an example, we can look at the revenue trend of Amazon&#39;s AWS in the last few quarters.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/fa128a33a23c119a6ac23fca333ad946\" tg-width=\"861\" tg-height=\"174\"/></p><p>Amazon Filings</p><p></p><p><em>Figure: AWS revenue trend in the last few quarters. Source:</em> <em>Amazon filings.</em></p><p>AWS has been spending heavily on AI in the hopes of launching new AI services and attract more clients. However, this has not significantly increased the revenue trajectory for the company. A similar trend can be seen in Google Cloud and Microsoft&#39;s Cloud.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/ba02c9463c9150cafa7fa0e8623f6a60\" tg-width=\"984\" tg-height=\"400\"/></p><p>YCharts</p><p></p><p><em>Figure: Quarterly capex of large cloud providers. Source:</em> <em>YCharts</em></p><p>There has been a strong inflection in capex of the big three cloud providers in the last few quarters, and each of them is now estimating close to $50 billion in capex for this fiscal years. A bulk of the incremental spending has gone to building the AI services and buying the expensive chips from Nvidia. However, if we do not see a material improvement in the margins and revenue of these cloud players, Wall Street could turn very bearish towards these investments.</p><p>Nvidia&#39;s management is betting that the AI demand will continue to increase over the coming quarters. However, this is not guaranteed when we look at the macro picture and the performance of some of its major clients.</p><h3 id=\"id_2287063006\">Margin pressure from competition</h3><p>Nvidia will inevitably face margin pressure as more competitive chips are launched in the market. AMD is projecting AI chip revenue of $4.5 billion for 2024. This estimate has continued to increase over the last few quarters. At the end of 2023, AMD was estimating AI chip revenue of only $2 billion. It is possible that the final results for 2024 will easily cross $5 billion level. This is still a small fraction of Nvidia&#39;s revenue base, but we can see a clear trend. If AMD&#39;s current growth trajectory continues in 2025, we could see a major headwind for Nvidia&#39;s margin. Despite the higher market share of Nvidia, Wall Street could become increasingly cautious about the ability of the company to retain its juicy margins.</p><p>There has been a sequential decline in US revenue in the recent quarter. The US revenue of Nvidia was $13.5 billion in Q1 2025 while it was $13 billion in Q2 2025.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/8028fe9a0699d26b09f7c11bd55fcb30\" tg-width=\"862\" tg-height=\"178\"/></p><p>Nvidia Filings</p><p></p><p><em>Figure: Nvidia&#39;s revenue base in different regions. Source:</em> <em>Nvidia Filings.</em></p><p>One possible explanation for this sequential decline is that the big tech clients have started reassessing their AI spend. It is certainly possible that this QoQ decline continues for the next few quarters, which will be a revenue headwind for the company.</p><h3 id=\"id_602071535\">EPS growth trend does not look very promising</h3><p>Beyond 2025, Nvidia&#39;s EPS growth trajectory starts looking more modest. The consensus EPS estimate for fiscal year ending Jan 2027 is $4.71 which is equal to 17.9% YoY growth.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/714b0fc57fa927f9765d267618c38599\" tg-width=\"898\" tg-height=\"186\"/></p><p>Seeking Alpha</p><p></p><p><em>Figure: EPS estimate for next few years. Source:</em> <em>Seeking Alpha.</em></p><p>It should also be noted that there is a huge difference between the low and high EPS estimate for fiscal year ending Jan 2027. The low EPS estimate is $1.81 while the high estimate is $7.26 which is 4 times the low estimate. Very few big tech companies have this level of difference in forward EPS estimate. This gives an additional risk to the stock. Nvidia is trading at 26 times the consensus EPS estimate for fiscal year ending Jan 2027. This is a high number for a company which is facing several headwinds.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/0a890ba7bca293417214bdff2d3fe16e\" tg-width=\"979\" tg-height=\"391\"/></p><p>YCharts</p><p></p><p><em>Figure: Nvidia and AMD&#39;s EPS estimate for 2 fiscal years ahead. Source:</em> <em>YCharts</em></p><p>AMD&#39;s EPS estimate for 2 fiscal years ahead is $7.4 which gives the stock a forward P/E valuation (FY 2026) of 21.5. This is 20% lower than the 26.2 forward P/E valuation of Nvidia for fiscal year ending Jan 2027. I also believe that Nvidia has a higher risk of EPS down revisions as the margin pressure continues to build on the company for the next few quarters.</p><p>Nvidia is at a large revenue base, with quarterly revenue of close to $30 billion. It is facing competitive, regulatory and client-specific headwinds. On the other hand, the upside is limited, which changes the risk/reward dynamics of the stock.</p><h2 id=\"id_3652055779\">Investor Takeaway</h2><p>Nvidia delivered a great earnings result, beating both the revenue and earnings estimate. However, the stock corrected by close to 20% post-earnings, which is a strong red flag for the company. Despite making up most of the losses, the stock is still below the pre-earnings high of close to $130. Nvidia gets a bulk of its Data Center revenue from big cloud players like Amazon, Google, and Microsoft. All of them have seen their stocks underperform significantly after the recent earnings as Wall Street gets more cautious over the massive capex trajectory of these companies. There is a strong possibility that the management of these tech companies will need to downscale their AI spending, which should hurt Nvidia&#39;s revenue and margins estimate.</p><p>Nvidia is already facing a margin pressure, and it is difficult to see how the company can retain its market share and margins in the upcoming quarters. AMD will likely deliver over $5 billion in AI chip sales for 2024 and there is a strong growth momentum for its chips. Nvidia stock is also not cheap as it is trading at over 26 times the EPS estimate for the fiscal year ending January 2027 compared to only 21.5 for AMD. The upside is limited while the company faces massive headwinds, which makes the stock a Sell at the current price.</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Nvidia Is Showing Major Red Flags On The Demand Side</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNvidia Is Showing Major Red Flags On The Demand Side\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-09-27 14:04 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4723524-nvidia-showing-major-red-flags-demand-side><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>The performance of Nvidia Corporation’s stock after the recent earnings result is a strong warning to the bullish investors.The stock had a 20% dip despite beating estimates on almost all major ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4723524-nvidia-showing-major-red-flags-demand-side\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"IE00BFSS8Q28.SGD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Inc SGD-H","BK4549":"软银资本持仓","IE0034235188.USD":"PINEBRIDGE GLOBAL FOCUS EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","IE00B19Z8W00.USD":"FTGF CLEARBRIDGE US LARGE CAP GROWTH \"A\" INC","HK0000320223.HKD":"TAIKANG KAITAI CHINA NEW OPPORTUNITIES FUND \"A\" (HKD) ACC","IE00B4JS1V06.HKD":"JANUS HENDERSON BALANCED \"A2\" (HKD) ACC","IE0004086264.USD":"BNY MELLON GLOBAL OPPORTUNITIES \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE00BFSS7M15.SGD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Acc SGD-H","BK4554":"元宇宙及AR概念","IE00BMPRXQ63.HKD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN NEXT GENERATION CONNECTIVITY FUND \"A\" (HKDHDG) ACC","BK4532":"文艺复兴科技持仓","HK0000320264.USD":"TAIKANG KAITAI CHINA NEW OPPORTUNITIES FUND \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE0034235295.USD":"PINEBRIDGE GLOBAL DYNAMIC ASSET ALLOCATION 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CONNECTIVITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4543":"AI","IE00B775H168.HKD":"JANUS HENDERSON BALANCED \"A5M\" (HKD) INC","IE00BDRTCR15.USD":"PINEBRIDGE GLOBAL DYNAMIC ASSET ALLOCATION \"ADC\" (USD) INC A","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","IE00B5949003.HKD":"JANUS HENDERSON GLOBAL TECHNOLOGY AND INNOVATION \"A\" (HKD) ACC","IE0004445015.USD":"JANUS HENDERSON BALANCED \"A2\" (USD) ACC","BK4141":"半导体产品","IE0005OL40V9.USD":"JANUS HENDERSON BALANCED \"A6M\" (USD) INC","IE00BK4W5L77.USD":"HSBC GLOBAL FUNDS ICAV US EQUITY INDEX \"HC\" (USD) ACC","BK4551":"寇图资本持仓","IE00BWXC8680.SGD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A5\" (SGD) ACC","LU0061474705.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) GLOBAL DYNAMIC REAL RETURN \"AU\" (USD) ACC","IE00B19Z8X17.USD":"FTGF CLEARBRIDGE US LARGE CAP GROWTH  \"AG\" (USD) ACC","IE00B3M56506.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN EMERGING MARKETS EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE00BD6J9T35.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN NEXT GENERATION MOBILITY \"A\" (USD) ACC"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4723524-nvidia-showing-major-red-flags-demand-side","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"2470763038","content_text":"The performance of Nvidia Corporation’s stock after the recent earnings result is a strong warning to the bullish investors.The stock had a 20% dip despite beating estimates on almost all major metrics.Close to 50% of the data center revenue comes from large cloud providers, who are getting warning signals from Wall Street regarding their capex trajectory.We have not seen a big revenue or margin improvement from cloud providers in the last few earnings, which can force them to rein in their AI spending.The stock is trading at over 26 times forward P/E for the fiscal year ending Jan 2027, and any margin pressure would reduce the upside potential in the stock.BING-JHEN HONGNvidia Corporation's (NASDAQ:NVDA) recent earnings result is a big warning for bullish investors and analysts. The company was able to beat estimates on revenue and EPS while also giving strong forward guidance. The revenue surprise was $1.29 billion, which was enormous and showed a strong trajectory in this metric. However, Wall Street ended up correcting the stock by close to 20%. Since the dip, Nvidia has recouped most of the losses and is again close to the $125 level. But we can see several red signals that are flashing and need to be closely looked to gauge the long-term returns potential of the stock. In our previous article, it was mentioned that we would see margin pressure in Nvidia.In the Q1 earnings, Nvidia's CFO mentioned that close to 50% of the data center revenue came from large cloud providers like Amazon's (AMZN) AWS, Google Cloud (GOOGL) (GOOG), and Microsoft Azure (MSFT). Most of the recent growth in Nvidia's revenue has been driven by these cloud companies trying to ramp up their AI services. But this has come at a cost of massive capex for even the larger companies. Most of these cloud companies have themselves seen a correction after recent earnings as Wall Street is worried over their capex trajectory. On the other hand, these large cloud providers are not showing a big improvement in their revenue and margin trajectory. If these large players scale back their investment over the coming quarters, we could see a big headwind for Nvidia's revenue and margin.The forward EPS growth projection of Nvidia are not strong. For the fiscal year ending Jan 2027, the consensus EPS estimate is of $4.71 which gives the stock a forward P/E of 26.2. Any margin decline could lead to big EPS downward revisions. Competition from Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) is heating up, and the company is continuously increasing its AI revenue estimate almost every quarter. While Nvidia has a big lead, it is highly likely that it will see strong margin headwinds as other players ramp up their AI chips. Looking at this macro picture, Nvidia stock does not seem to be cheap, and it has a limited upside potential.Looking beyond NvidiaTo gauge the growth potential of Nvidia, we need to look at the recent performance of some of its biggest clients. Most of the top management of large cloud providers have been very optimistic about their AI services, but Wall Street is having second doubts about their future projection. We have already seen this in the recent earnings season, where big cloud players have not performed well.Nvidia FilingsFigure: Nvidia's CFO remarks in Q1 earnings. Source: Nvidia filings.In the Q1 earnings, Nvidia's CFO Colette Kress mentioned that large cloud providers contributed in the mid-40s as a percentage of Nvidia's Data Center revenue base. If these large cloud providers see a strong backlash from Wall Street due to their AI spending, it will inevitably hurt Nvidia.YChartsFigure: Stock performance of top cloud services. Source: YChartsThe big three cloud providers have not fared well in this earnings season. All of them are significantly lagging the broader market. They have company-specific issues, but one of the common bearish arguments for them is the massive capex spending on AI, which has not delivered an improvement in margin and revenue trajectory.As an example, we can look at the revenue trend of Amazon's AWS in the last few quarters.Amazon FilingsFigure: AWS revenue trend in the last few quarters. Source: Amazon filings.AWS has been spending heavily on AI in the hopes of launching new AI services and attract more clients. However, this has not significantly increased the revenue trajectory for the company. A similar trend can be seen in Google Cloud and Microsoft's Cloud.YChartsFigure: Quarterly capex of large cloud providers. Source: YChartsThere has been a strong inflection in capex of the big three cloud providers in the last few quarters, and each of them is now estimating close to $50 billion in capex for this fiscal years. A bulk of the incremental spending has gone to building the AI services and buying the expensive chips from Nvidia. However, if we do not see a material improvement in the margins and revenue of these cloud players, Wall Street could turn very bearish towards these investments.Nvidia's management is betting that the AI demand will continue to increase over the coming quarters. However, this is not guaranteed when we look at the macro picture and the performance of some of its major clients.Margin pressure from competitionNvidia will inevitably face margin pressure as more competitive chips are launched in the market. AMD is projecting AI chip revenue of $4.5 billion for 2024. This estimate has continued to increase over the last few quarters. At the end of 2023, AMD was estimating AI chip revenue of only $2 billion. It is possible that the final results for 2024 will easily cross $5 billion level. This is still a small fraction of Nvidia's revenue base, but we can see a clear trend. If AMD's current growth trajectory continues in 2025, we could see a major headwind for Nvidia's margin. Despite the higher market share of Nvidia, Wall Street could become increasingly cautious about the ability of the company to retain its juicy margins.There has been a sequential decline in US revenue in the recent quarter. The US revenue of Nvidia was $13.5 billion in Q1 2025 while it was $13 billion in Q2 2025.Nvidia FilingsFigure: Nvidia's revenue base in different regions. Source: Nvidia Filings.One possible explanation for this sequential decline is that the big tech clients have started reassessing their AI spend. It is certainly possible that this QoQ decline continues for the next few quarters, which will be a revenue headwind for the company.EPS growth trend does not look very promisingBeyond 2025, Nvidia's EPS growth trajectory starts looking more modest. The consensus EPS estimate for fiscal year ending Jan 2027 is $4.71 which is equal to 17.9% YoY growth.Seeking AlphaFigure: EPS estimate for next few years. Source: Seeking Alpha.It should also be noted that there is a huge difference between the low and high EPS estimate for fiscal year ending Jan 2027. The low EPS estimate is $1.81 while the high estimate is $7.26 which is 4 times the low estimate. Very few big tech companies have this level of difference in forward EPS estimate. This gives an additional risk to the stock. Nvidia is trading at 26 times the consensus EPS estimate for fiscal year ending Jan 2027. This is a high number for a company which is facing several headwinds.YChartsFigure: Nvidia and AMD's EPS estimate for 2 fiscal years ahead. Source: YChartsAMD's EPS estimate for 2 fiscal years ahead is $7.4 which gives the stock a forward P/E valuation (FY 2026) of 21.5. This is 20% lower than the 26.2 forward P/E valuation of Nvidia for fiscal year ending Jan 2027. I also believe that Nvidia has a higher risk of EPS down revisions as the margin pressure continues to build on the company for the next few quarters.Nvidia is at a large revenue base, with quarterly revenue of close to $30 billion. It is facing competitive, regulatory and client-specific headwinds. On the other hand, the upside is limited, which changes the risk/reward dynamics of the stock.Investor TakeawayNvidia delivered a great earnings result, beating both the revenue and earnings estimate. However, the stock corrected by close to 20% post-earnings, which is a strong red flag for the company. Despite making up most of the losses, the stock is still below the pre-earnings high of close to $130. Nvidia gets a bulk of its Data Center revenue from big cloud players like Amazon, Google, and Microsoft. All of them have seen their stocks underperform significantly after the recent earnings as Wall Street gets more cautious over the massive capex trajectory of these companies. There is a strong possibility that the management of these tech companies will need to downscale their AI spending, which should hurt Nvidia's revenue and margins estimate.Nvidia is already facing a margin pressure, and it is difficult to see how the company can retain its market share and margins in the upcoming quarters. AMD will likely deliver over $5 billion in AI chip sales for 2024 and there is a strong growth momentum for its chips. Nvidia stock is also not cheap as it is trading at over 26 times the EPS estimate for the fiscal year ending January 2027 compared to only 21.5 for AMD. The upside is limited while the company faces massive headwinds, which makes the stock a Sell at the current price.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":634,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":352503559565592,"gmtCreate":1727100416096,"gmtModify":1727100420984,"author":{"id":"3574807189087941","authorId":"3574807189087941","name":"Icywinddale","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/3bd2fbf9d90e26b2f600b2c5d7c54244","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574807189087941","authorIdStr":"3574807189087941"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Take a look at what this guy say about NVDA, he is just a joke. Never listen to him.","listText":"Take a look at what this guy say about NVDA, he is just a joke. Never listen to him.","text":"Take a look at what this guy say about NVDA, he is just a joke. Never listen to him.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/352503559565592","repostId":"2469136521","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2469136521","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Dow Jones publishes the world’s most trusted business news and financial information in a variety of media.","home_visible":0,"media_name":"Dow Jones","id":"106","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99"},"pubTimestamp":1727095500,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2469136521?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2024-09-23 20:45","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Microsoft’s Stock Hit with a Rare Downgrade. Why This Analyst Says Stop Buying","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2469136521","media":"Dow Jones","summary":"D.A. Davidson’s Gil Luria is now one of the 5% of analysts covering Microsoft who aren’t bullishMicrosoft’s stock gets downgraded to a rare neutral rating due to concerns it’s losing ground to Amazon and Alphabet.Shares of Microsoft Corp. leaned lower in early Monday trading, after D.A. Davidson’s Gil Luria became one of the rare Wall Street analysts who isn’t enthusiastic about the software giant and artificial-intelligence play.Luria cut his rating on the stock to neutral, after being at buy s","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>D.A. Davidson’s Gil Luria is now one of the 5% of analysts covering Microsoft who aren’t bullish</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/edf1ac2bdff5a271ce6efc5470f3cf89\" alt=\"Microsoft’s stock gets downgraded to a rare neutral rating due to concerns it’s losing ground to Amazon and Alphabet.\" title=\"Microsoft’s stock gets downgraded to a rare neutral rating due to concerns it’s losing ground to Amazon and Alphabet.\" tg-width=\"926\" tg-height=\"614\"/><span>Microsoft’s stock gets downgraded to a rare neutral rating due to concerns it’s losing ground to Amazon and Alphabet.</span></p><p>Shares of Microsoft Corp. leaned lower in early Monday trading, after D.A. Davidson’s Gil Luria became one of the rare Wall Street analysts who isn’t enthusiastic about the software giant and artificial-intelligence play.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Luria cut his rating on the stock to neutral, after being at buy since January 2023. He kept his price target at $475, which still implies a 9.1% upside from Friday’s closing price of $435.27.</p><p>The stock slipped 0.4% in premarket trading.</p><p>Luria acknowledged that Microsoft has accelerated growth and expanded margins over the past few quarters, as the company benefited from being the first to embrace and commercialize generative AI. With its early investment in OpenAI, Microsoft’s cloud-computing platform Azure took a “significant lead” over Amazon.com Inc.’s AWS and Alphabet Inc.’s Google Cloud Platform.</p><p>So why is Luria no longer bullish?</p><p>“We believe that Microsoft’s lead is now diminished in both the cloud business and code generation business, which will make it hard for [Microsoft] to continue to outperform,” Luria wrote in a note to clients.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Of the 59 analysts surveyed by FactSet who rate Microsoft’s stock, 56 are bullish, two are now neutral and one is bearish. The average price target on the stock is $497.43.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/c38854602045cd5ef2098e77901085cb\" alt=\"PHOTO: FACTSET\" title=\"PHOTO: FACTSET\" tg-width=\"885\" tg-height=\"411\"/><span>PHOTO: FACTSET</span></p><p>Luria said AWS is now adding nearly as much cloud business as Azure, and GCP has also seen its business accelerate to comparable growth rates as Azure last quarter.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">And importantly, he said D.A. Davidson’s proprietary hyperscaler semiconductor analysis shows that AWS and GCP are far ahead of Microsoft in using their own chips in their data centers, which should give them an advantage over Azure going forward.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Microsoft’s Maia chips are “years behind” those of Amazon and Google. That makes Microsoft reliant on chips made by Nvidia Corp., Luria said, which in turn means Microsoft “will continue to shift wealth from its shareholders to [Nvidia] shareholders.”</p><p>“We believe this means Microsoft has been escalating an arms rate it may not be able to win,” Luria wrote.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">He noted that after margins expanded significantly in the past year, Microsoft expects operating margins to decline in fiscal 2025.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">That’s because Microsoft has to boost the percentage of revenue it allocates for data-center capital expenditures to a higher rate than both Amazon and Google, given its reliance on a third party — Nvidia — for its chips.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Every year that Microsoft “over invests” in its datacenters, at current rates, it will reduce operating margins by at least one percentage point.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">“Microsoft would need to lay off ~10,000 employees for every year of over-investment in order to offset the margin drag,” Luria wrote.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Microsoft’s stock has gained 15.8% year to date through Friday, while Amazon shares have run up 26.1% and Alphabet’s stock has advanced 17.1%. The S&amp;P 500 index has rallied 19.6% this year.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Microsoft’s Stock Hit with a Rare Downgrade. Why This Analyst Says Stop Buying</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMicrosoft’s Stock Hit with a Rare Downgrade. Why This Analyst Says Stop Buying\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Dow Jones </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2024-09-23 20:45</p>\n</div>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>D.A. Davidson’s Gil Luria is now one of the 5% of analysts covering Microsoft who aren’t bullish</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/edf1ac2bdff5a271ce6efc5470f3cf89\" alt=\"Microsoft’s stock gets downgraded to a rare neutral rating due to concerns it’s losing ground to Amazon and Alphabet.\" title=\"Microsoft’s stock gets downgraded to a rare neutral rating due to concerns it’s losing ground to Amazon and Alphabet.\" tg-width=\"926\" tg-height=\"614\"/><span>Microsoft’s stock gets downgraded to a rare neutral rating due to concerns it’s losing ground to Amazon and Alphabet.</span></p><p>Shares of Microsoft Corp. leaned lower in early Monday trading, after D.A. Davidson’s Gil Luria became one of the rare Wall Street analysts who isn’t enthusiastic about the software giant and artificial-intelligence play.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Luria cut his rating on the stock to neutral, after being at buy since January 2023. He kept his price target at $475, which still implies a 9.1% upside from Friday’s closing price of $435.27.</p><p>The stock slipped 0.4% in premarket trading.</p><p>Luria acknowledged that Microsoft has accelerated growth and expanded margins over the past few quarters, as the company benefited from being the first to embrace and commercialize generative AI. With its early investment in OpenAI, Microsoft’s cloud-computing platform Azure took a “significant lead” over Amazon.com Inc.’s AWS and Alphabet Inc.’s Google Cloud Platform.</p><p>So why is Luria no longer bullish?</p><p>“We believe that Microsoft’s lead is now diminished in both the cloud business and code generation business, which will make it hard for [Microsoft] to continue to outperform,” Luria wrote in a note to clients.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Of the 59 analysts surveyed by FactSet who rate Microsoft’s stock, 56 are bullish, two are now neutral and one is bearish. The average price target on the stock is $497.43.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/c38854602045cd5ef2098e77901085cb\" alt=\"PHOTO: FACTSET\" title=\"PHOTO: FACTSET\" tg-width=\"885\" tg-height=\"411\"/><span>PHOTO: FACTSET</span></p><p>Luria said AWS is now adding nearly as much cloud business as Azure, and GCP has also seen its business accelerate to comparable growth rates as Azure last quarter.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">And importantly, he said D.A. Davidson’s proprietary hyperscaler semiconductor analysis shows that AWS and GCP are far ahead of Microsoft in using their own chips in their data centers, which should give them an advantage over Azure going forward.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Microsoft’s Maia chips are “years behind” those of Amazon and Google. That makes Microsoft reliant on chips made by Nvidia Corp., Luria said, which in turn means Microsoft “will continue to shift wealth from its shareholders to [Nvidia] shareholders.”</p><p>“We believe this means Microsoft has been escalating an arms rate it may not be able to win,” Luria wrote.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">He noted that after margins expanded significantly in the past year, Microsoft expects operating margins to decline in fiscal 2025.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">That’s because Microsoft has to boost the percentage of revenue it allocates for data-center capital expenditures to a higher rate than both Amazon and Google, given its reliance on a third party — Nvidia — for its chips.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Every year that Microsoft “over invests” in its datacenters, at current rates, it will reduce operating margins by at least one percentage point.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">“Microsoft would need to lay off ~10,000 employees for every year of over-investment in order to offset the margin drag,” Luria wrote.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Microsoft’s stock has gained 15.8% year to date through Friday, while Amazon shares have run up 26.1% and Alphabet’s stock has advanced 17.1%. The S&amp;P 500 index has rallied 19.6% this year.</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"MSFT":"微软"},"source_url":"https://dowjonesnews.com/newdjn/logon.aspx?AL=N","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2469136521","content_text":"D.A. Davidson’s Gil Luria is now one of the 5% of analysts covering Microsoft who aren’t bullishMicrosoft’s stock gets downgraded to a rare neutral rating due to concerns it’s losing ground to Amazon and Alphabet.Shares of Microsoft Corp. leaned lower in early Monday trading, after D.A. Davidson’s Gil Luria became one of the rare Wall Street analysts who isn’t enthusiastic about the software giant and artificial-intelligence play.Luria cut his rating on the stock to neutral, after being at buy since January 2023. He kept his price target at $475, which still implies a 9.1% upside from Friday’s closing price of $435.27.The stock slipped 0.4% in premarket trading.Luria acknowledged that Microsoft has accelerated growth and expanded margins over the past few quarters, as the company benefited from being the first to embrace and commercialize generative AI. With its early investment in OpenAI, Microsoft’s cloud-computing platform Azure took a “significant lead” over Amazon.com Inc.’s AWS and Alphabet Inc.’s Google Cloud Platform.So why is Luria no longer bullish?“We believe that Microsoft’s lead is now diminished in both the cloud business and code generation business, which will make it hard for [Microsoft] to continue to outperform,” Luria wrote in a note to clients.Of the 59 analysts surveyed by FactSet who rate Microsoft’s stock, 56 are bullish, two are now neutral and one is bearish. The average price target on the stock is $497.43.PHOTO: FACTSETLuria said AWS is now adding nearly as much cloud business as Azure, and GCP has also seen its business accelerate to comparable growth rates as Azure last quarter.And importantly, he said D.A. Davidson’s proprietary hyperscaler semiconductor analysis shows that AWS and GCP are far ahead of Microsoft in using their own chips in their data centers, which should give them an advantage over Azure going forward.Microsoft’s Maia chips are “years behind” those of Amazon and Google. That makes Microsoft reliant on chips made by Nvidia Corp., Luria said, which in turn means Microsoft “will continue to shift wealth from its shareholders to [Nvidia] shareholders.”“We believe this means Microsoft has been escalating an arms rate it may not be able to win,” Luria wrote.He noted that after margins expanded significantly in the past year, Microsoft expects operating margins to decline in fiscal 2025.That’s because Microsoft has to boost the percentage of revenue it allocates for data-center capital expenditures to a higher rate than both Amazon and Google, given its reliance on a third party — Nvidia — for its chips.Every year that Microsoft “over invests” in its datacenters, at current rates, it will reduce operating margins by at least one percentage point.“Microsoft would need to lay off ~10,000 employees for every year of over-investment in order to offset the margin drag,” Luria wrote.Microsoft’s stock has gained 15.8% year to date through Friday, while Amazon shares have run up 26.1% and Alphabet’s stock has advanced 17.1%. The S&P 500 index has rallied 19.6% this year.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":579,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":352025370411096,"gmtCreate":1726982348711,"gmtModify":1726988736645,"author":{"id":"3574807189087941","authorId":"3574807189087941","name":"Icywinddale","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/3bd2fbf9d90e26b2f600b2c5d7c54244","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574807189087941","authorIdStr":"3574807189087941"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Brain-damaged articles","listText":"Brain-damaged articles","text":"Brain-damaged articles","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/352025370411096","repostId":"2469511719","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2469511719","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Dow Jones publishes the world’s most trusted business news and financial information in a variety of media.","home_visible":0,"media_name":"Dow Jones","id":"106","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99"},"pubTimestamp":1726962870,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2469511719?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2024-09-22 07:54","market":"hk","language":"en","title":"Sorry, the Fed Can't Save Us From a Bear Market","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2469511719","media":"Dow Jones","summary":"Wall Street commentary around this week's Fed rate cut could have filled a very long and boring book, but much of what you need to know about its effect on the stock market can be found in a movie rarely linked with monetary policy: \"The Wizard of Oz.\". The great and powerful man behind the central bank curtain, Jerome Powell, really can't do as much as people think to keep their portfolios from shriveling if the wheels are already starting to come off the economy. Stocks' initial reaction to Wednesday's cut was exuberant. That often proves to be a head fake, though -- we still don't know how this movie ends.Take the start of the rate-cutting cycle in 2007 -- one that coincidentally began on the same day of the year, the same starting federal-funds rate, and was for an identical amount, half a percent  -- as Wednesday's move. The effect was electric: The Dow Jones Industrial Average had its largest gain in more than four years, rising 336 points, the equivalent of about 1,000 points to","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Wall Street commentary around this week&#39;s Fed rate cut could have filled a very long and boring book, but much of what you need to know about its effect on the stock market can be found in a movie rarely linked with monetary policy: &#34;The Wizard of Oz.&#34;</p><p>The great and powerful man behind the central bank curtain, Jerome Powell, really can&#39;t do as much as people think to keep their portfolios from shriveling if the wheels are already starting to come off the economy. Stocks&#39; initial reaction to Wednesday&#39;s cut was exuberant. That often proves to be a head fake, though -- we still don&#39;t know how this movie ends.</p><p>Take the start of the rate-cutting cycle in 2007 -- one that coincidentally began on the same day of the year, the same starting federal-funds rate, and was for an identical amount, half a percent (50 basis points) -- as Wednesday&#39;s move. The effect was electric: The Dow Jones Industrial Average had its largest gain in more than four years, rising 336 points, the equivalent of about 1,000 points today. Lehman Brothers shares were among the top performers, surging 10%.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/87332df9d93b9dea02c121a049013aad\" tg-width=\"931\" tg-height=\"768\"/></p><p>But, as we know now, stocks were just three weeks from their bull-market peak, a recession would begin in January 2008, and Lehman would collapse less than a year later in the largest-ever U.S. bankruptcy. By that time, the Fed had cut rates six more times -- moves of 25, 25, 75, 50, 75 and 25 basis points, in that order. The moves took rates to 2%, their lowest in nearly four years. In the two months following the Lehman panic, the Fed made three more steep cuts, slashing rates to zero (technically a range of 0% to 0.25%) for the first time ever.</p><p>Stocks surged then too, with the benchmark S&amp;P 500 jumping 4.7%. The Dow&#39;s gain of 360 points would be nearly 1,700 today. Yet they erased all of that day&#39;s rally in less than a week and would go on to shed another quarter of their value before bottoming in March 2009.</p><p>To be clear, the conditions that existed during the housing crisis were extreme, sparking the worst U.S. economic downturn since the Great Depression. Extreme events are by definition rare, and most predictions of doom are false alarms. More money is lost bracing for bear markets than in them, even when they really happen.</p><p>Yet there have been 22 bear markets in the past century for all sorts of reasons. Economists who dismiss the possibility of a tumble just because specific excesses such as toxic subprime loans as in the mid-aughts or ludicrous dot-com valuations akin to the late &#39;90s don&#39;t exist today could wind up with egg on their faces. Like generals fighting the last war, they rely too much on their lived experience.</p><p>In a classic of the genre, then Bear Stearns chief economist David Malpass wrote a Wall Street Journal op-ed, &#34;Don&#39;t Panic About the Credit Market,&#34; in August 2007 after a two-month retreat in stock prices.</p><p>&#34;Unlike the 1998 seizure in credit markets to which many are now drawing comparisons, reservoirs of global liquidity are full to overflowing, not empty as they were that year,&#34; he wrote. &#34;The deep 1997-1998 Asian crisis has been replaced with an all-cylinder boom.&#34;</p><p>Despite five subsequent Fed rate cuts, his employer was among the first high-profile casualties of the credit meltdown. Two months after September 2007&#39;s rate-cutting cycle had begun, the mood already had darkened, yet a Wall Street Journal survey of 54 economists that month put the odds of any U.S. recession in the following 12 months at just one-third.</p><p>The chairman of the Fed doesn&#39;t have a magic wand to levitate an economy that is already stumbling or a stock market about to do the same. Goldman Sachs strategist David Kostin noted recently that &#34;the trajectory of growth is a more important driver for stocks than the speed of rate cuts.&#34;</p><p>His research shows that, if the economy has already been headed into a recession before the first rate cut, then the median path of the S&amp;P 500 has been to lose around 14% of its value in the coming year. If it wasn&#39;t headed into a recession, then it is the inverse. Lower rates most certainly matter for bond investors. They might only blunt an already-unfolding swoon for stocks, though, since they take so long to filter through to companies and consumers.</p><p>Claims that the U.S. economy could soon contract aren&#39;t very convincing at the moment, and a sharp pullback of a third or more in stocks would be unusual unless the economy stalls. That helps explain why stocks are near record highs and the usual signs of market caution so subdued. But so does the misguided belief that Fed cuts are themselves a reason to remain calm and keep buying.</p><p>There are smart people on the fringes -- they usually are at this stage -- warning about excesses in private credit and commercial real estate or the effect of China&#39;s alarming slowdown on the world economy. U.S. stocks have rarely been so expensive, concentrated or dependent on a single theme -- the promise of AI. And government indebtedness around the world has never been as high, making the response to the next recession trickier.</p><p>We&#39;re not in Kansas any more.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Sorry, the Fed Can't Save Us From a Bear Market</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSorry, the Fed Can't Save Us From a Bear Market\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Dow Jones </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2024-09-22 07:54</p>\n</div>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>Wall Street commentary around this week&#39;s Fed rate cut could have filled a very long and boring book, but much of what you need to know about its effect on the stock market can be found in a movie rarely linked with monetary policy: &#34;The Wizard of Oz.&#34;</p><p>The great and powerful man behind the central bank curtain, Jerome Powell, really can&#39;t do as much as people think to keep their portfolios from shriveling if the wheels are already starting to come off the economy. Stocks&#39; initial reaction to Wednesday&#39;s cut was exuberant. That often proves to be a head fake, though -- we still don&#39;t know how this movie ends.</p><p>Take the start of the rate-cutting cycle in 2007 -- one that coincidentally began on the same day of the year, the same starting federal-funds rate, and was for an identical amount, half a percent (50 basis points) -- as Wednesday&#39;s move. The effect was electric: The Dow Jones Industrial Average had its largest gain in more than four years, rising 336 points, the equivalent of about 1,000 points today. Lehman Brothers shares were among the top performers, surging 10%.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/87332df9d93b9dea02c121a049013aad\" tg-width=\"931\" tg-height=\"768\"/></p><p>But, as we know now, stocks were just three weeks from their bull-market peak, a recession would begin in January 2008, and Lehman would collapse less than a year later in the largest-ever U.S. bankruptcy. By that time, the Fed had cut rates six more times -- moves of 25, 25, 75, 50, 75 and 25 basis points, in that order. The moves took rates to 2%, their lowest in nearly four years. In the two months following the Lehman panic, the Fed made three more steep cuts, slashing rates to zero (technically a range of 0% to 0.25%) for the first time ever.</p><p>Stocks surged then too, with the benchmark S&amp;P 500 jumping 4.7%. The Dow&#39;s gain of 360 points would be nearly 1,700 today. Yet they erased all of that day&#39;s rally in less than a week and would go on to shed another quarter of their value before bottoming in March 2009.</p><p>To be clear, the conditions that existed during the housing crisis were extreme, sparking the worst U.S. economic downturn since the Great Depression. Extreme events are by definition rare, and most predictions of doom are false alarms. More money is lost bracing for bear markets than in them, even when they really happen.</p><p>Yet there have been 22 bear markets in the past century for all sorts of reasons. Economists who dismiss the possibility of a tumble just because specific excesses such as toxic subprime loans as in the mid-aughts or ludicrous dot-com valuations akin to the late &#39;90s don&#39;t exist today could wind up with egg on their faces. Like generals fighting the last war, they rely too much on their lived experience.</p><p>In a classic of the genre, then Bear Stearns chief economist David Malpass wrote a Wall Street Journal op-ed, &#34;Don&#39;t Panic About the Credit Market,&#34; in August 2007 after a two-month retreat in stock prices.</p><p>&#34;Unlike the 1998 seizure in credit markets to which many are now drawing comparisons, reservoirs of global liquidity are full to overflowing, not empty as they were that year,&#34; he wrote. &#34;The deep 1997-1998 Asian crisis has been replaced with an all-cylinder boom.&#34;</p><p>Despite five subsequent Fed rate cuts, his employer was among the first high-profile casualties of the credit meltdown. Two months after September 2007&#39;s rate-cutting cycle had begun, the mood already had darkened, yet a Wall Street Journal survey of 54 economists that month put the odds of any U.S. recession in the following 12 months at just one-third.</p><p>The chairman of the Fed doesn&#39;t have a magic wand to levitate an economy that is already stumbling or a stock market about to do the same. Goldman Sachs strategist David Kostin noted recently that &#34;the trajectory of growth is a more important driver for stocks than the speed of rate cuts.&#34;</p><p>His research shows that, if the economy has already been headed into a recession before the first rate cut, then the median path of the S&amp;P 500 has been to lose around 14% of its value in the coming year. If it wasn&#39;t headed into a recession, then it is the inverse. Lower rates most certainly matter for bond investors. They might only blunt an already-unfolding swoon for stocks, though, since they take so long to filter through to companies and consumers.</p><p>Claims that the U.S. economy could soon contract aren&#39;t very convincing at the moment, and a sharp pullback of a third or more in stocks would be unusual unless the economy stalls. That helps explain why stocks are near record highs and the usual signs of market caution so subdued. But so does the misguided belief that Fed cuts are themselves a reason to remain calm and keep buying.</p><p>There are smart people on the fringes -- they usually are at this stage -- warning about excesses in private credit and commercial real estate or the effect of China&#39;s alarming slowdown on the world economy. U.S. stocks have rarely been so expensive, concentrated or dependent on a single theme -- the promise of AI. And government indebtedness around the world has never been as high, making the response to the next recession trickier.</p><p>We&#39;re not in Kansas any more.</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://dowjonesnews.com/newdjn/logon.aspx?AL=N","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2469511719","content_text":"Wall Street commentary around this week's Fed rate cut could have filled a very long and boring book, but much of what you need to know about its effect on the stock market can be found in a movie rarely linked with monetary policy: \"The Wizard of Oz.\"The great and powerful man behind the central bank curtain, Jerome Powell, really can't do as much as people think to keep their portfolios from shriveling if the wheels are already starting to come off the economy. Stocks' initial reaction to Wednesday's cut was exuberant. That often proves to be a head fake, though -- we still don't know how this movie ends.Take the start of the rate-cutting cycle in 2007 -- one that coincidentally began on the same day of the year, the same starting federal-funds rate, and was for an identical amount, half a percent (50 basis points) -- as Wednesday's move. The effect was electric: The Dow Jones Industrial Average had its largest gain in more than four years, rising 336 points, the equivalent of about 1,000 points today. Lehman Brothers shares were among the top performers, surging 10%.But, as we know now, stocks were just three weeks from their bull-market peak, a recession would begin in January 2008, and Lehman would collapse less than a year later in the largest-ever U.S. bankruptcy. By that time, the Fed had cut rates six more times -- moves of 25, 25, 75, 50, 75 and 25 basis points, in that order. The moves took rates to 2%, their lowest in nearly four years. In the two months following the Lehman panic, the Fed made three more steep cuts, slashing rates to zero (technically a range of 0% to 0.25%) for the first time ever.Stocks surged then too, with the benchmark S&P 500 jumping 4.7%. The Dow's gain of 360 points would be nearly 1,700 today. Yet they erased all of that day's rally in less than a week and would go on to shed another quarter of their value before bottoming in March 2009.To be clear, the conditions that existed during the housing crisis were extreme, sparking the worst U.S. economic downturn since the Great Depression. Extreme events are by definition rare, and most predictions of doom are false alarms. More money is lost bracing for bear markets than in them, even when they really happen.Yet there have been 22 bear markets in the past century for all sorts of reasons. Economists who dismiss the possibility of a tumble just because specific excesses such as toxic subprime loans as in the mid-aughts or ludicrous dot-com valuations akin to the late '90s don't exist today could wind up with egg on their faces. Like generals fighting the last war, they rely too much on their lived experience.In a classic of the genre, then Bear Stearns chief economist David Malpass wrote a Wall Street Journal op-ed, \"Don't Panic About the Credit Market,\" in August 2007 after a two-month retreat in stock prices.\"Unlike the 1998 seizure in credit markets to which many are now drawing comparisons, reservoirs of global liquidity are full to overflowing, not empty as they were that year,\" he wrote. \"The deep 1997-1998 Asian crisis has been replaced with an all-cylinder boom.\"Despite five subsequent Fed rate cuts, his employer was among the first high-profile casualties of the credit meltdown. Two months after September 2007's rate-cutting cycle had begun, the mood already had darkened, yet a Wall Street Journal survey of 54 economists that month put the odds of any U.S. recession in the following 12 months at just one-third.The chairman of the Fed doesn't have a magic wand to levitate an economy that is already stumbling or a stock market about to do the same. Goldman Sachs strategist David Kostin noted recently that \"the trajectory of growth is a more important driver for stocks than the speed of rate cuts.\"His research shows that, if the economy has already been headed into a recession before the first rate cut, then the median path of the S&P 500 has been to lose around 14% of its value in the coming year. If it wasn't headed into a recession, then it is the inverse. Lower rates most certainly matter for bond investors. They might only blunt an already-unfolding swoon for stocks, though, since they take so long to filter through to companies and consumers.Claims that the U.S. economy could soon contract aren't very convincing at the moment, and a sharp pullback of a third or more in stocks would be unusual unless the economy stalls. That helps explain why stocks are near record highs and the usual signs of market caution so subdued. But so does the misguided belief that Fed cuts are themselves a reason to remain calm and keep buying.There are smart people on the fringes -- they usually are at this stage -- warning about excesses in private credit and commercial real estate or the effect of China's alarming slowdown on the world economy. U.S. stocks have rarely been so expensive, concentrated or dependent on a single theme -- the promise of AI. And government indebtedness around the world has never been as high, making the response to the next recession trickier.We're not in Kansas any more.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":536,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":350719366373720,"gmtCreate":1726650395890,"gmtModify":1726650399532,"author":{"id":"3574807189087941","authorId":"3574807189087941","name":"Icywinddale","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/3bd2fbf9d90e26b2f600b2c5d7c54244","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574807189087941","authorIdStr":"3574807189087941"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Another liar.","listText":"Another liar.","text":"Another liar.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/350719366373720","repostId":"1191591104","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1191591104","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1726641553,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1191591104?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2024-09-18 14:39","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Billionaire Hedge Fund Manager Says He Would Pull His Money from the Market If Harris Wins Election","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1191591104","media":"Fox Business","summary":"Hedge fund billionaire and major Trump fundraiser John Paulson said Tuesday he will pull his money out of the market if Vice President Harris wins the presidential election this fall, saying the Democ","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Hedge fund billionaire and major Trump fundraiser John Paulson said Tuesday he will pull his money out of the market if Vice President Harris wins the presidential election this fall, saying the Democrat nominee&#39;s economic policies would spook investors.</p><p>The Paulson &amp; Co. founder, known for his lucrative bet against the subprime mortgage in 2007, appeared on FOX Business&#39; &#34;The Claman Countdown,&#34; where host Liz Claman asked him what he sees as the next big bet similar to that.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/26217d693544662a8757fbe76f185dba\" alt=\"Hedge fund manager John Paulson (Spencer Platt/Getty Images)\" title=\"Hedge fund manager John Paulson (Spencer Platt/Getty Images)\" tg-width=\"931\" tg-height=\"523\"/><span>Hedge fund manager John Paulson (Spencer Platt/Getty Images)</span></p><p>&#34;Well, I would say it very much depends on who&#39;s in the White House and who controls Congress,&#34; Paulson replied. &#34;I&#39;d be very concerned if Harris is elected and pursues the tax plans and other economic plans that she articulated.&#34;</p><p>Paulson said during the interview that former President Trump and Harris&#39; plans for the economy are very different, noting that Trump wants to extend the 2017 tax cuts implemented during his term in office while Harris wants to let them expire.</p><p>He also noted that Harris has proposed raising the corporate tax rate from 21% to 28% and wants to raise the capital gains rate from 20% to 28%.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/a723aa42a1f9edac3d9c30a6f56c2a60\" alt=\"Republican presidential nominee former President Trump arrives for a campaign event at the Central Wisconsin Airport on Sept. 7, 2024, in Mosinee, Wisconsin. (Scott Olson/Getty Images)\" title=\"Republican presidential nominee former President Trump arrives for a campaign event at the Central Wisconsin Airport on Sept. 7, 2024, in Mosinee, Wisconsin. (Scott Olson/Getty Images)\" tg-width=\"931\" tg-height=\"523\"/><span>Republican presidential nominee former President Trump arrives for a campaign event at the Central Wisconsin Airport on Sept. 7, 2024, in Mosinee, Wisconsin. (Scott Olson/Getty Images)</span></p><p>The billionaire pointed to Harris&#39; proposed 25% tax on unrealized gains for individuals making $100 million or more, and he predicted that, if implemented, it &#34;would cause mass selling of almost everything – stocks, bonds, homes, art – I think it would result in a crash in the markets and an immediate, pretty quick recession.&#34;</p><p>Claman went on to note that some people who were concerned about the policies of previous presidents, namely Barack Obama, Trump and Joe Biden, pulled their money out of the markets when they were elected, and the move turned out to be a big mistake as the markets continued to perform well.</p><p>But Paulson has said that market timing and investor timing will really matter depending on who is president, and Claman asked him if he is ready to take that chance.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/218fff4868171aaa606369d587ac33b6\" alt=\"Democrat presidential nominee Vice President Harris speaks during a campaign event on Sept. 2, 2024, in Pittsburgh. (Michael M. Santiago/Getty Images)\" title=\"Democrat presidential nominee Vice President Harris speaks during a campaign event on Sept. 2, 2024, in Pittsburgh. (Michael M. Santiago/Getty Images)\" tg-width=\"931\" tg-height=\"523\"/><span>Democrat presidential nominee Vice President Harris speaks during a campaign event on Sept. 2, 2024, in Pittsburgh. (Michael M. Santiago/Getty Images)</span></p><p>&#34;It depends on the policy,&#34; Paulson said. &#34;I think if Harris was elected, I would pull my money from the market. I&#39;d go into cash, and I&#39;d go into gold because I think the uncertainty regarding the plans they outlined would create a lot of uncertainty in the markets and likely lower markets.&#34;</p><p>When pressed by Claman, Paulson reiterated that he would sell the liquid equities that he owns if Harris wins the White House.</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1602566126337","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Billionaire Hedge Fund Manager Says He Would Pull His Money from the Market If Harris Wins Election</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBillionaire Hedge Fund Manager Says He Would Pull His Money from the Market If Harris Wins Election\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-09-18 14:39 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.foxbusiness.com/politics/billionaire-hedge-fund-manager-says-he-would-pull-his-money-from-market-harris-wins-election><strong>Fox Business</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Hedge fund billionaire and major Trump fundraiser John Paulson said Tuesday he will pull his money out of the market if Vice President Harris wins the presidential election this fall, saying the ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.foxbusiness.com/politics/billionaire-hedge-fund-manager-says-he-would-pull-his-money-from-market-harris-wins-election\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.foxbusiness.com/politics/billionaire-hedge-fund-manager-says-he-would-pull-his-money-from-market-harris-wins-election","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1191591104","content_text":"Hedge fund billionaire and major Trump fundraiser John Paulson said Tuesday he will pull his money out of the market if Vice President Harris wins the presidential election this fall, saying the Democrat nominee's economic policies would spook investors.The Paulson & Co. founder, known for his lucrative bet against the subprime mortgage in 2007, appeared on FOX Business' \"The Claman Countdown,\" where host Liz Claman asked him what he sees as the next big bet similar to that.Hedge fund manager John Paulson (Spencer Platt/Getty Images)\"Well, I would say it very much depends on who's in the White House and who controls Congress,\" Paulson replied. \"I'd be very concerned if Harris is elected and pursues the tax plans and other economic plans that she articulated.\"Paulson said during the interview that former President Trump and Harris' plans for the economy are very different, noting that Trump wants to extend the 2017 tax cuts implemented during his term in office while Harris wants to let them expire.He also noted that Harris has proposed raising the corporate tax rate from 21% to 28% and wants to raise the capital gains rate from 20% to 28%.Republican presidential nominee former President Trump arrives for a campaign event at the Central Wisconsin Airport on Sept. 7, 2024, in Mosinee, Wisconsin. (Scott Olson/Getty Images)The billionaire pointed to Harris' proposed 25% tax on unrealized gains for individuals making $100 million or more, and he predicted that, if implemented, it \"would cause mass selling of almost everything – stocks, bonds, homes, art – I think it would result in a crash in the markets and an immediate, pretty quick recession.\"Claman went on to note that some people who were concerned about the policies of previous presidents, namely Barack Obama, Trump and Joe Biden, pulled their money out of the markets when they were elected, and the move turned out to be a big mistake as the markets continued to perform well.But Paulson has said that market timing and investor timing will really matter depending on who is president, and Claman asked him if he is ready to take that chance.Democrat presidential nominee Vice President Harris speaks during a campaign event on Sept. 2, 2024, in Pittsburgh. (Michael M. Santiago/Getty Images)\"It depends on the policy,\" Paulson said. \"I think if Harris was elected, I would pull my money from the market. I'd go into cash, and I'd go into gold because I think the uncertainty regarding the plans they outlined would create a lot of uncertainty in the markets and likely lower markets.\"When pressed by Claman, Paulson reiterated that he would sell the liquid equities that he owns if Harris wins the White House.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":588,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":350073235079400,"gmtCreate":1726495007688,"gmtModify":1726495011489,"author":{"id":"3574807189087941","authorId":"3574807189087941","name":"Icywinddale","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/3bd2fbf9d90e26b2f600b2c5d7c54244","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574807189087941","authorIdStr":"3574807189087941"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"The writer knows nothing","listText":"The writer knows nothing","text":"The writer knows nothing","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/350073235079400","repostId":"2467155168","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2467155168","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Dow Jones publishes the world’s most trusted business news and financial information in a variety of media.","home_visible":0,"media_name":"Dow Jones","id":"106","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99"},"pubTimestamp":1726486731,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2467155168?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2024-09-16 19:38","market":"other","language":"en","title":"Nvidia's Stock Rally Pauses. A New Generation of Data Centers Is Arriving","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2467155168","media":"Dow Jones","summary":"Nvidia was slipping early on Monday as the chip maker looks set to give back some gains from the previous week's rally.Nvidia shares were down 1.44% at $117.39 in premarket trading on Monday. The stoc","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Nvidia was slipping early on Monday as the chip maker looks set to give back some gains from the previous week&#39;s rally.</p><p>Nvidia shares were down 1.44% at $117.39 in premarket trading on Monday. The stock closed broadly flat on Friday but has risen 12% over the past five trading sessions.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/8ecfa4e89d443499439628aa77d8bc83\" tg-width=\"739\" tg-height=\"621\"/></p><p>Nvidia has gained from renewed confidence in demand for its chips, partly fueled by cloud-computing and software company Oracle which has talked of companies spending $100 billion each on developing their artificial-intelligence models.</p><p>Oracle has outlined plans to build an AI supercomputer that will be powered by 131,072 of Nvidia&#39;s next-generation Blackwell chips</p><p>&#34;Nvidia is at the epicenter of all things related and is the pioneer for artificial intelligence infrastructure,&#34; wrote Ken Mahoney, CEO of Mahoney Asset Management, in an emailed comment. &#34;They have been and will continue to be the beneficiary of this movement.&#34;</p><p>However, there are signs that investors in big data centers are diversifying what type of chips they intend to use. Chip start-up Groq said recently it has joined with oil producer Saudi Arabian Oil Co., commonly known as Aramco, to build a giant data center in Saudi Arabia to offer AI computing power to local companies.</p><p>Groq&#39;s chips are focused on inference, the process of generating answers or results from AI models. It has claimed its language-processing units are better suited for powering AI language applications than GPUs of the type Nvidia makes.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Nvidia's Stock Rally Pauses. A New Generation of Data Centers Is Arriving</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNvidia's Stock Rally Pauses. A New Generation of Data Centers Is Arriving\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Dow Jones </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2024-09-16 19:38</p>\n</div>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>Nvidia was slipping early on Monday as the chip maker looks set to give back some gains from the previous week&#39;s rally.</p><p>Nvidia shares were down 1.44% at $117.39 in premarket trading on Monday. The stock closed broadly flat on Friday but has risen 12% over the past five trading sessions.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/8ecfa4e89d443499439628aa77d8bc83\" tg-width=\"739\" tg-height=\"621\"/></p><p>Nvidia has gained from renewed confidence in demand for its chips, partly fueled by cloud-computing and software company Oracle which has talked of companies spending $100 billion each on developing their artificial-intelligence models.</p><p>Oracle has outlined plans to build an AI supercomputer that will be powered by 131,072 of Nvidia&#39;s next-generation Blackwell chips</p><p>&#34;Nvidia is at the epicenter of all things related and is the pioneer for artificial intelligence infrastructure,&#34; wrote Ken Mahoney, CEO of Mahoney Asset Management, in an emailed comment. &#34;They have been and will continue to be the beneficiary of this movement.&#34;</p><p>However, there are signs that investors in big data centers are diversifying what type of chips they intend to use. Chip start-up Groq said recently it has joined with oil producer Saudi Arabian Oil Co., commonly known as Aramco, to build a giant data center in Saudi Arabia to offer AI computing power to local companies.</p><p>Groq&#39;s chips are focused on inference, the process of generating answers or results from AI models. It has claimed its language-processing units are better suited for powering AI language applications than GPUs of the type Nvidia makes.</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BK4554":"元宇宙及AR概念","LU0985489474.SGD":"First Eagle Amundi International AHS-C SGD-H","LU0823434740.USD":"BNP PARIBAS US GROWTH \"C\" (USD) INC","BK4532":"文艺复兴科技持仓","LU0878866978.SGD":"First Eagle Amundi International AHS-QD SGD-H","LU0738911758.USD":"Blackrock Global Equity Income A6 USD","IE0034235303.USD":"PINEBRIDGE US RESEARCH ENHANCED CORE EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE00B7KXQ091.USD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Inc USD","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","LU0433182093.SGD":"First Eagle Amundi International AS-C SGD","IE00BLSP4452.SGD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - Tactical Dividend Income A Mdis SGD-H Plus","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","IE0004086264.USD":"BNY MELLON GLOBAL OPPORTUNITIES \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE00B894F039.SGD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - US Aggressive Growth A Acc SGD-H","LU0417517546.SGD":"Allianz US Equity Cl AT Acc SGD","LU0068578508.USD":"First Eagle Amundi International Cl AU-C USD","IE00B19Z9505.USD":"美盛-美国大盘成长股A Acc","LU0053666078.USD":"摩根大通基金-美国股票A（离岸）美元","LU1988902786.USD":"FULLERTON LUX FUNDS GLOBAL ABSOLUTE ALPHA \"I\" (USD) ACC","NVDA":"英伟达","LU0082616367.USD":"摩根大通美国科技A（dist）","BK4538":"云计算","LU0823421333.USD":"BNP PARIBAS DISRUPTIVE TECHNOLOGY \"C\" (USD) ACC","LU0823421416.USD":"BNP PARIBAS DISRUPTIVE TECHNOLOGY \"C\" (USD) INC","LU0061474960.USD":"天利环球焦点基金AU Acc","LU0234572021.USD":"高盛美国核心股票组合Acc","LU0320765646.SGD":"FTIF - Franklin Income A MDIS SGD-H1","BK4097":"系统软件","LU0823434583.USD":"BNP PARIBAS US GROWTH \"C\" (USD) ACC","LU1934455194.USD":"AB SICAV I LOW VOLATILITY TOTAL RETURN EQUITY PORT \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0661504455.SGD":"Blackrock Global Equity Income A5 SGD-H","IE00BKPKM429.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN GLOBAL SUSTAINABLE EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE00BZ1G4Q59.USD":"LEGG MASON CLEARBRIDGE US EQUITY SUSTAINABILITY LEADER \"A\"(USD) INC (A)","BK4512":"苹果概念","LU0057025933.USD":"SUSTAINABLE GLOBAL THEMATIC PORTFOLIO \"AX\" (USD) ACC","BK4549":"软银资本持仓","LU0061474705.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) GLOBAL DYNAMIC REAL RETURN \"AU\" (USD) ACC","LU0979878070.USD":"FULLERTON LUX FUNDS - ASIA ABSOLUTE ALPHA \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","LU1852331112.SGD":"Blackrock World Technology Fund A2 SGD-H","LU0289960550.SGD":"AB FCP I - GLOBAL EQUITY BLEND PORTFOLIO 'A' (SGD) ACC","IE00B1BXHZ80.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - US Appreciation A Acc USD","IE00BFSS8Q28.SGD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Inc SGD-H"},"source_url":"https://dowjonesnews.com/newdjn/logon.aspx?AL=N","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2467155168","content_text":"Nvidia was slipping early on Monday as the chip maker looks set to give back some gains from the previous week's rally.Nvidia shares were down 1.44% at $117.39 in premarket trading on Monday. The stock closed broadly flat on Friday but has risen 12% over the past five trading sessions.Nvidia has gained from renewed confidence in demand for its chips, partly fueled by cloud-computing and software company Oracle which has talked of companies spending $100 billion each on developing their artificial-intelligence models.Oracle has outlined plans to build an AI supercomputer that will be powered by 131,072 of Nvidia's next-generation Blackwell chips\"Nvidia is at the epicenter of all things related and is the pioneer for artificial intelligence infrastructure,\" wrote Ken Mahoney, CEO of Mahoney Asset Management, in an emailed comment. \"They have been and will continue to be the beneficiary of this movement.\"However, there are signs that investors in big data centers are diversifying what type of chips they intend to use. Chip start-up Groq said recently it has joined with oil producer Saudi Arabian Oil Co., commonly known as Aramco, to build a giant data center in Saudi Arabia to offer AI computing power to local companies.Groq's chips are focused on inference, the process of generating answers or results from AI models. It has claimed its language-processing units are better suited for powering AI language applications than GPUs of the type Nvidia makes.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":353,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":348977889988880,"gmtCreate":1726220390662,"gmtModify":1726220394262,"author":{"id":"3574807189087941","authorId":"3574807189087941","name":"Icywinddale","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/3bd2fbf9d90e26b2f600b2c5d7c54244","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574807189087941","authorIdStr":"3574807189087941"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"u know ZERO. Wrote something worth reading.","listText":"u know ZERO. Wrote something worth reading.","text":"u know ZERO. Wrote something worth reading.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/348977889988880","repostId":"2466270404","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2466270404","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1726229310,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2466270404?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2024-09-13 20:08","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Nvidia: The Price Is Too High","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2466270404","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"The market has negatively reacted to Nvidia’s latest earnings report.Nvidia faces several risks that will likely undermine its efforts to grow its sales across the globe.We also believe that Nvidia is","content":"<html><head></head><body><ul style=\"\"><li><p>The market has negatively reacted to Nvidia’s latest earnings report.</p></li><li><p>Nvidia faces several risks that will likely undermine its efforts to grow its sales across the globe.</p></li><li><p>We also believe that Nvidia is overvalued, its upside is limited, and its stock is a SELL for us.</p></li></ul><h2 id=\"id_3486510891\">Nvidia Disappoints The Market</h2><p>Two weeks ago, Nvidia released its Q2’25 earnings report, which showed that the revenues during the quarter were $30.04 billion, up 122.4% Y/Y and above the consensus by $1.29 billion. Despite such results, the company’s shares initially declined after the results were revealed.</p><p>In part, the decline was caused by the expectations that Nvidia’s growth rate is about to normalize in the upcoming quarters, which means that the triple-digit growth rate is likely to be a thing of the past next year and beyond.</p><p>If we look closely at the performance of Nvidia’s stock, we’ll see that it started to gain momentum in May 2023. That is when the Q1’24 report was released, which showed that while the company’s revenues declined Y/Y, major growth was expected in the following quarter thanks to the increased demand for its first generative AI GPUs from the H100 series that started to gain traction back then. As the generative AI revolution began to gather steam, the sales for the company’s AI GPUs were accelerating, which made Nvidia trade at excessive multiples that are mostly far beyond the sector’s median multiples.</p><p>Ever since that report came in, the market’s perception was that the company needed to significantly beat the consensus estimates and meaningfully increase its guidance all the time for the shares to continue to trade at those high multiples. This has been the case in recent quarters so far. In Q3’24, Q4’24, and Q1’25, Nvidia beat the revenue consensus by a wide margin and announced a major guidance increase that was above the street expectations by a significant margin as well. Thanks to this, Nvidia’s shares rallied, and the company was able to become one of the most valuable businesses in the world in less than two years.</p><p>However, after the recent Q2’25 report came in, there’s a sign that the pace of growth appears to be slowing down, and it’s one of the main reasons why the stock has been declining recently. CNN reported that investors were likely disappointed that Nvidia didn’t beat the estimates by a wider margin. Another Seeking Alpha contributor Jonathan Weber also noted that while the revenue estimates were beaten by around 4%, it’s not as great when compared to a year ago when revenue estimates were beaten by around 20%. If we look at Nvidia’s earnings history, we’ll see that the revenue beat in absolute numbers has been shrinking during each consecutive quarter starting from Q2’24. Professor Aswath Damodaran noted that <em>there are clear signs of more slowing to come, as scaling will continue to push revenue growth down.</em></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/1e0ecde52260da152c697a1556ad66bb\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"137\"/></p><p>Earnings History (Seeking Alpha)</p><p>In addition to that, the guidance also was relatively weak and contributed to the decline in share price as well. In Q3, Nvidia expects to generate $32.5 billion in revenues, which is less than a billion dollars from the consensus of $31.71 billion. This was one of the biggest disappointments of the recent earnings report, as the market expected a better guidance. Professor Aswath Damodaran also explained what to make from this guidance and what’s to come next, and we fully share his point of view:</p><blockquote><p>As a company that has played the expectations game well, it should come as no surprise that Nvidia provided guidance for future quarters in its second quarter report, and here too, there were reminders that comparisons would get more challenging in future quarters, as they predicted that revenue growth rates would come back to earth, and that margins would, at best, level off or perhaps even decline.</p></blockquote><h2 id=\"id_3089099913\">Additional Issues To Consider</h2><p>While the guidance has been rather disappointing, there’s also a possibility that it would be more challenging for Nvidia to meet it, and especially exceed it, as it faces some additional challenges right now. Last month, news came in that Nvidia’s upcoming Blackwell GPUs will be delayed, which resulted in a short-term selloff of the company’s shares. Nvidia in the recent conference call hinted that the potential delay was due to the technical change to improve the production yields of Blackwell and the production ramp-up is expected only in Q4. As such, there’s a possibility that the overall performance in Q3 could also disappoint investors when the next earnings report comes out in November.</p><p>There’s also a risk that the guidance in the next earnings report could also disappoint investors, since the company faces some external risks that are outside of its control. In the Q1 earnings call, the management admitted that their data center revenue in China is down significantly due to the American chip export restrictions that were implemented last year. In the recent Q2 earnings call, they repeated that their current sales in China are below the previous levels. Since the China-USA relations are not expected to significantly improve anytime soon and Beijing has recently retaliated by imposing its export restrictions as well, the macro risks will remain and will likely continue to undermine Nvidia’s efforts to grow revenues across the globe.</p><p>As a result of all of that, we believe that Nvidia is not a good investment right now and its shares have a decent chance of continuing to depreciate or trade sideways in the upcoming months.</p><h2 id=\"id_2000837632\">The Intrinsic Value of Nvidia</h2><p>Right now, we believe that Nvidia’s stock is also overvalued, especially since it trades at a forward P/E of 38x, while the sector’s median P/E is only 23x. Seeking Alpha’s Quant system also gives Nvidia a rating of D- for valuation. To figure out Nvidia’s intrinsic value and how big is its downside, we created our valuation model.</p><p>To create a model, we added some initial data that can be seen on the left side of the table below. The tax rate in our model is 21%. This is the current corporate tax rate in the United States. While Nvidia’s effective tax rate was lower in the last year, our model covers a period of the next five years where the tax rate might increase. This is why it makes sense to assume a higher rate in the model. We made this model at a time when Nvidia was trading at $116.91 per share, and the long-term debt and the cash reserves data was added from the latest earnings report. The perpetual growth rate is 3%, which is close to the historical inflation and GDP rate.</p><p>The discount rate in our model is 10.28%. The calculation for the discount rate is presented in the middle and right columns of the table, which can be seen below. First, we calculated the cost of debt and the after-tax cost of debt by using Nvidia’s TTM financial data. Then we calculated the cost of equity by using the risk-free rate of 3.86%, the beta of 1.68, and the inflation-adjusted market-return rate of 7.70%. In the end, we weighted Nvidia’s debt profile with its equity and figured out the discount rate.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/4525cc5cfd74d912557f2358499ce023\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"183\"/></p><p>Nvidia’s Valuation (Bears of Wall Street)</p><p>Once we filled in the entry data, we moved on to forecasting Nvidia’s growth in the upcoming years. The sales growth rate of 106% in the model is similar to the overall expectations for the current fiscal year. While the pace of growth is expected to subside going forward, the company still had strong growth at the beginning of this fiscal year, which is why in FY25 we’ll still see a triple-digit rate for sales. After that, a normalization of the growth rate is expected to happen and is reflected in our model. The EBIT as a percentage of sales is 62% in the model, which is close to the company’s historical performance in recent months. The tax rate is 21%, while the assumptions for the rest of the metrics closely match up with Nvidia’s historical performance.</p><p>Our forecast helped us figure out the present value of Nvidia’s FCF in the upcoming years. We were then able to calculate the cumulative value of Nvidia’s FCF, apply the discount and perpetual growth rates, and figure out the terminal value and the present value of Nvidia’s terminal value. We then added Nvidia’s present value of the terminal value to the cumulative present value of its FCF to calculate the company’s enterprise value, which in our case is $1.94 trillion.</p><p>Once the enterprise value was found, we then added Nvidia’s cash, subtracted the long-term debt from it, and arrived at an equity value of $1.97 trillion. After that, we divided Nvidia’s equity value by the number of its shares and arrived at the intrinsic value of $79.33 per share. This means that Nvidia’s stock is overvalued by around 32%. That’s why we believe that Nvidia is a SELL right now.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/c7c5c3fa734baa66f95a87eecfb553f6\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"228\"/></p><p>Nvidia’s Valuation (Bears of Wall Street)</p><p>It’s also important to note that at a market cap of nearly ~$2. 65 trillion, it’s hard to justify Nvidia’s current price, even after the recent decline caused by the latest earnings report. The whole generative AI market under one of the most optimistic assumptions is expected to be worth $1.3 trillion in 2032. In addition, the overall cloud market could be worth only as much as $1.8 trillion by 2029. Considering this, Nvidia’s current valuation today simply doesn’t make a lot of sense to us.</p><h2 id=\"id_815598079\">Risks To Our Bearish Thesis</h2><p>Despite all the negativity, several risks could undermine our bearish thesis. The most obvious is the potential greater ramp-up of sales in the second half of the year, which would make the market excited again about Nvidia’s growth prospects. The potential delay of Blackwell shipments could be offset by the potential increase of the company’s Hopper series GPUs, especially since their supply and availability have improved. This could ensure that Nvidia performs well in Q3, and makes investors once again excited about investing into its shares if the beat is significant.</p><p>We also know from the latest conference call that the demand for Blackwell is above supply. If no further delays are announced, then when the Q3 report comes out, Nvidia could also announce a far more optimistic guidance for Q4, which could help revive the stock’s momentum later this year.</p><h2 id=\"id_584510153\">Final Thoughts</h2><p>Nvidia’s biggest issue is that its stock is priced for perfection, and any earnings report that includes an earnings beat without an impressive margin and relatively disappointing guidance would likely prevent a further appreciation of shares. This has been the case with the latest earnings report and the subsequent reaction of the market to it.</p><p>The macro challenges are also not going anywhere away, and potential catalysts might not even materialize in the end if the company fails to grow its sales due to potential supply issues or delays. That is why Nvidia’s upside is not guaranteed and until the Q3 numbers come out, its shares could continue to experience weakness. This is why at the current price, Nvidia stock is a SELL for us.</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Nvidia: The Price Is Too High</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNvidia: The Price Is Too High\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-09-13 20:08 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4720611-nvidia-the-price-is-too-high><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>The market has negatively reacted to Nvidia’s latest earnings report.Nvidia faces several risks that will likely undermine its efforts to grow its sales across the globe.We also believe that Nvidia is...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4720611-nvidia-the-price-is-too-high\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BK4543":"AI","BK4527":"明星科技股","IE00BHPRN162.USD":"BNY MELLON BLOCKCHAIN INNOVATION \"B\" (USD) ACC","IE00BDCRKT87.USD":"PINEBRIDGE GLOBAL DYNAMIC ASSET ALLOCATION \"ADC\" (USD) INC","GB00BDT5M118.USD":"天利环球扩展Alpha基金A Acc","BK4588":"碎股","BK4579":"人工智能","LU0056508442.USD":"贝莱德世界科技基金A2","IE00BZ199S13.USD":"BNY MELLON MOBILITY INNOVATION \"B\" (USD) ACC","LU0048584097.USD":"FIDELITY FUNDS  GLOBAL THEMATIC OPPORTUNITIES \"A\" (USD) INC","IE00B1XK9C88.USD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE00BJJMRY28.SGD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Inc SGD","BK4503":"景林资产持仓","IE00BJLML261.HKD":"HSBC GLOBAL EQUITY INDEX \"HCH\" (HKD) ACC","IE00BMPRXN33.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN 5G CONNECTIVITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE00BYXW3230.USD":"PINEBRIDGE GLOBAL DYNAMIC ASSET ALLOCATION \"AA\" (USD) ACC","HK0000306701.USD":"TAIKANG KAITAI CHINA NEW OPPORTUNITIES FUND \"A\" (USD) INC","IE00B775H168.HKD":"JANUS HENDERSON BALANCED \"A5M\" (HKD) INC","NVDA":"英伟达","BK4581":"高盛持仓","IE0004445015.USD":"JANUS HENDERSON BALANCED \"A2\" (USD) ACC","IE0005OL40V9.USD":"JANUS HENDERSON BALANCED \"A6M\" (USD) INC","IE00B5949003.HKD":"JANUS HENDERSON GLOBAL TECHNOLOGY AND INNOVATION \"A\" (HKD) ACC","BK4549":"软银资本持仓","IE00BWXC8680.SGD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A5\" (SGD) ACC","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","IE00BJJMRX11.SGD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Acc SGD","IE00B19Z8X17.USD":"FTGF CLEARBRIDGE US LARGE CAP GROWTH  \"AG\" (USD) ACC","IE00B3M56506.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN EMERGING MARKETS EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE00BD6J9T35.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN NEXT GENERATION MOBILITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE00BMPRXQ63.HKD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN NEXT GENERATION CONNECTIVITY FUND \"A\" (HKDHDG) ACC","BK4554":"元宇宙及AR概念","IE0034235188.USD":"PINEBRIDGE GLOBAL FOCUS EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4532":"文艺复兴科技持仓","BK4592":"伊斯兰概念","IE00B19Z8W00.USD":"FTGF CLEARBRIDGE US LARGE CAP GROWTH \"A\" INC","HK0000320223.HKD":"TAIKANG KAITAI CHINA NEW OPPORTUNITIES FUND \"A\" (HKD) ACC","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","IE00B4JS1V06.HKD":"JANUS HENDERSON BALANCED \"A2\" (HKD) ACC","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","IE00BFSS7M15.SGD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Acc SGD-H","BK4587":"ChatGPT概念","HK0000320264.USD":"TAIKANG KAITAI CHINA NEW OPPORTUNITIES FUND \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE0034235295.USD":"PINEBRIDGE GLOBAL DYNAMIC ASSET ALLOCATION \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE0004091025.USD":"BNY MELLON GLOBAL OPPORTUNITIES \"B\" (USD) ACC","HK0000306685.HKD":"TAIKANG KAITAI CHINA NEW OPPORTUNITIES FUND \"A\" (HKD) INC"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4720611-nvidia-the-price-is-too-high","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"2466270404","content_text":"The market has negatively reacted to Nvidia’s latest earnings report.Nvidia faces several risks that will likely undermine its efforts to grow its sales across the globe.We also believe that Nvidia is overvalued, its upside is limited, and its stock is a SELL for us.Nvidia Disappoints The MarketTwo weeks ago, Nvidia released its Q2’25 earnings report, which showed that the revenues during the quarter were $30.04 billion, up 122.4% Y/Y and above the consensus by $1.29 billion. Despite such results, the company’s shares initially declined after the results were revealed.In part, the decline was caused by the expectations that Nvidia’s growth rate is about to normalize in the upcoming quarters, which means that the triple-digit growth rate is likely to be a thing of the past next year and beyond.If we look closely at the performance of Nvidia’s stock, we’ll see that it started to gain momentum in May 2023. That is when the Q1’24 report was released, which showed that while the company’s revenues declined Y/Y, major growth was expected in the following quarter thanks to the increased demand for its first generative AI GPUs from the H100 series that started to gain traction back then. As the generative AI revolution began to gather steam, the sales for the company’s AI GPUs were accelerating, which made Nvidia trade at excessive multiples that are mostly far beyond the sector’s median multiples.Ever since that report came in, the market’s perception was that the company needed to significantly beat the consensus estimates and meaningfully increase its guidance all the time for the shares to continue to trade at those high multiples. This has been the case in recent quarters so far. In Q3’24, Q4’24, and Q1’25, Nvidia beat the revenue consensus by a wide margin and announced a major guidance increase that was above the street expectations by a significant margin as well. Thanks to this, Nvidia’s shares rallied, and the company was able to become one of the most valuable businesses in the world in less than two years.However, after the recent Q2’25 report came in, there’s a sign that the pace of growth appears to be slowing down, and it’s one of the main reasons why the stock has been declining recently. CNN reported that investors were likely disappointed that Nvidia didn’t beat the estimates by a wider margin. Another Seeking Alpha contributor Jonathan Weber also noted that while the revenue estimates were beaten by around 4%, it’s not as great when compared to a year ago when revenue estimates were beaten by around 20%. If we look at Nvidia’s earnings history, we’ll see that the revenue beat in absolute numbers has been shrinking during each consecutive quarter starting from Q2’24. Professor Aswath Damodaran noted that there are clear signs of more slowing to come, as scaling will continue to push revenue growth down.Earnings History (Seeking Alpha)In addition to that, the guidance also was relatively weak and contributed to the decline in share price as well. In Q3, Nvidia expects to generate $32.5 billion in revenues, which is less than a billion dollars from the consensus of $31.71 billion. This was one of the biggest disappointments of the recent earnings report, as the market expected a better guidance. Professor Aswath Damodaran also explained what to make from this guidance and what’s to come next, and we fully share his point of view:As a company that has played the expectations game well, it should come as no surprise that Nvidia provided guidance for future quarters in its second quarter report, and here too, there were reminders that comparisons would get more challenging in future quarters, as they predicted that revenue growth rates would come back to earth, and that margins would, at best, level off or perhaps even decline.Additional Issues To ConsiderWhile the guidance has been rather disappointing, there’s also a possibility that it would be more challenging for Nvidia to meet it, and especially exceed it, as it faces some additional challenges right now. Last month, news came in that Nvidia’s upcoming Blackwell GPUs will be delayed, which resulted in a short-term selloff of the company’s shares. Nvidia in the recent conference call hinted that the potential delay was due to the technical change to improve the production yields of Blackwell and the production ramp-up is expected only in Q4. As such, there’s a possibility that the overall performance in Q3 could also disappoint investors when the next earnings report comes out in November.There’s also a risk that the guidance in the next earnings report could also disappoint investors, since the company faces some external risks that are outside of its control. In the Q1 earnings call, the management admitted that their data center revenue in China is down significantly due to the American chip export restrictions that were implemented last year. In the recent Q2 earnings call, they repeated that their current sales in China are below the previous levels. Since the China-USA relations are not expected to significantly improve anytime soon and Beijing has recently retaliated by imposing its export restrictions as well, the macro risks will remain and will likely continue to undermine Nvidia’s efforts to grow revenues across the globe.As a result of all of that, we believe that Nvidia is not a good investment right now and its shares have a decent chance of continuing to depreciate or trade sideways in the upcoming months.The Intrinsic Value of NvidiaRight now, we believe that Nvidia’s stock is also overvalued, especially since it trades at a forward P/E of 38x, while the sector’s median P/E is only 23x. Seeking Alpha’s Quant system also gives Nvidia a rating of D- for valuation. To figure out Nvidia’s intrinsic value and how big is its downside, we created our valuation model.To create a model, we added some initial data that can be seen on the left side of the table below. The tax rate in our model is 21%. This is the current corporate tax rate in the United States. While Nvidia’s effective tax rate was lower in the last year, our model covers a period of the next five years where the tax rate might increase. This is why it makes sense to assume a higher rate in the model. We made this model at a time when Nvidia was trading at $116.91 per share, and the long-term debt and the cash reserves data was added from the latest earnings report. The perpetual growth rate is 3%, which is close to the historical inflation and GDP rate.The discount rate in our model is 10.28%. The calculation for the discount rate is presented in the middle and right columns of the table, which can be seen below. First, we calculated the cost of debt and the after-tax cost of debt by using Nvidia’s TTM financial data. Then we calculated the cost of equity by using the risk-free rate of 3.86%, the beta of 1.68, and the inflation-adjusted market-return rate of 7.70%. In the end, we weighted Nvidia’s debt profile with its equity and figured out the discount rate.Nvidia’s Valuation (Bears of Wall Street)Once we filled in the entry data, we moved on to forecasting Nvidia’s growth in the upcoming years. The sales growth rate of 106% in the model is similar to the overall expectations for the current fiscal year. While the pace of growth is expected to subside going forward, the company still had strong growth at the beginning of this fiscal year, which is why in FY25 we’ll still see a triple-digit rate for sales. After that, a normalization of the growth rate is expected to happen and is reflected in our model. The EBIT as a percentage of sales is 62% in the model, which is close to the company’s historical performance in recent months. The tax rate is 21%, while the assumptions for the rest of the metrics closely match up with Nvidia’s historical performance.Our forecast helped us figure out the present value of Nvidia’s FCF in the upcoming years. We were then able to calculate the cumulative value of Nvidia’s FCF, apply the discount and perpetual growth rates, and figure out the terminal value and the present value of Nvidia’s terminal value. We then added Nvidia’s present value of the terminal value to the cumulative present value of its FCF to calculate the company’s enterprise value, which in our case is $1.94 trillion.Once the enterprise value was found, we then added Nvidia’s cash, subtracted the long-term debt from it, and arrived at an equity value of $1.97 trillion. After that, we divided Nvidia’s equity value by the number of its shares and arrived at the intrinsic value of $79.33 per share. This means that Nvidia’s stock is overvalued by around 32%. That’s why we believe that Nvidia is a SELL right now.Nvidia’s Valuation (Bears of Wall Street)It’s also important to note that at a market cap of nearly ~$2. 65 trillion, it’s hard to justify Nvidia’s current price, even after the recent decline caused by the latest earnings report. The whole generative AI market under one of the most optimistic assumptions is expected to be worth $1.3 trillion in 2032. In addition, the overall cloud market could be worth only as much as $1.8 trillion by 2029. Considering this, Nvidia’s current valuation today simply doesn’t make a lot of sense to us.Risks To Our Bearish ThesisDespite all the negativity, several risks could undermine our bearish thesis. The most obvious is the potential greater ramp-up of sales in the second half of the year, which would make the market excited again about Nvidia’s growth prospects. The potential delay of Blackwell shipments could be offset by the potential increase of the company’s Hopper series GPUs, especially since their supply and availability have improved. This could ensure that Nvidia performs well in Q3, and makes investors once again excited about investing into its shares if the beat is significant.We also know from the latest conference call that the demand for Blackwell is above supply. If no further delays are announced, then when the Q3 report comes out, Nvidia could also announce a far more optimistic guidance for Q4, which could help revive the stock’s momentum later this year.Final ThoughtsNvidia’s biggest issue is that its stock is priced for perfection, and any earnings report that includes an earnings beat without an impressive margin and relatively disappointing guidance would likely prevent a further appreciation of shares. This has been the case with the latest earnings report and the subsequent reaction of the market to it.The macro challenges are also not going anywhere away, and potential catalysts might not even materialize in the end if the company fails to grow its sales due to potential supply issues or delays. That is why Nvidia’s upside is not guaranteed and until the Q3 numbers come out, its shares could continue to experience weakness. This is why at the current price, Nvidia stock is a SELL for us.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":351,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":347588520194368,"gmtCreate":1725884011157,"gmtModify":1725884014240,"author":{"id":"3574807189087941","authorId":"3574807189087941","name":"Icywinddale","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/3bd2fbf9d90e26b2f600b2c5d7c54244","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574807189087941","authorIdStr":"3574807189087941"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nonsense","listText":"Nonsense","text":"Nonsense","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/347588520194368","repostId":"2466562131","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2466562131","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Dow Jones publishes the world’s most trusted business news and financial information in a variety of media.","home_visible":0,"media_name":"Dow Jones","id":"106","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99"},"pubTimestamp":1725881673,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2466562131?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2024-09-09 19:34","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Nvidia’s Dominance Could Be Ending, Citi Says. The Stock Rises Anyway","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2466562131","media":"Dow Jones","summary":"Nvidia looked set to pare back some of its recent losses on Monday, but analysts at Citi are warning that the artificial intelligence-fueled winning streak that powered the chip maker to a trillion-dollar valuation is coming to an end.The stock climbed 1.5% to $104.39 in premarket trading. On Friday, it had dropped 4.1% to cap off a nightmarish week.Nvidia shares have tumbled 20% over the past two weeks, dragged down by worries that the AI investing craze that has powered the market higher ever since ChatGPT launched in November 2022 could soon be about to fizzle out.The expectation that the Federal Reserve will soon start slashing interest rates has also accelerated a rotation out of the once-dominant Magnificent 7 group of megacap tech stocks. Citi analysts said in a research note on Friday that they don't expect Nvidia to carry on being a massive driver of returns for the benchmark S&P 500 index, even though they're predicting that its profit growth will remain strong.","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Nvidia looked set to pare back some of its recent losses on Monday, but analysts at Citi are warning that the artificial intelligence-fueled winning streak that powered the chip maker to a trillion-dollar valuation is coming to an end.</p><p>The stock climbed 1% to $104 in premarket trading. On Friday, it had dropped 4.1% to cap off a nightmarish week.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/cc31cf26753a43584c0a2691896657fe\" tg-width=\"784\" tg-height=\"830\"/></p><p>Nvidia shares have tumbled 20% over the past two weeks, dragged down by worries that the AI investing craze that has powered the market higher ever since ChatGPT launched in November 2022 could soon be about to fizzle out.</p><p>The expectation that the Federal Reserve will soon start slashing interest rates has also accelerated a rotation out of the once-dominant Magnificent 7 group of megacap tech stocks. Citi analysts said in a research note on Friday that they don&#39;t expect Nvidia to carry on being a massive driver of returns for the benchmark S&amp;P 500 index, even though they&#39;re predicting that its profit growth will remain strong.</p><p>&#34;Our sense is that Nvidia is becoming just another large-cap growth stock,&#34; a team led by U.S. equity strategist Scott Chronert wrote. &#34;A simple look at the deceleration in rate of forward guidance increases suggests that its most profound performance and fundamental impacts on index price action may be behind it.&#34;</p><p>They added that the selloff after Nvidia&#39;s solid, but not spectacular, earnings is a sign that the semiconductor giant&#39;s status as an AI darling is fading.</p><p>Among other chip makers, Advanced Micro Devices rose 1% ahead of the opening bell. Broadcom climbed 0.9%, and Qualcomm was up 1.2%. Futures for the S&amp;P 500 ticked up 0.6%.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Nvidia’s Dominance Could Be Ending, Citi Says. The Stock Rises Anyway</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNvidia’s Dominance Could Be Ending, Citi Says. The Stock Rises Anyway\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Dow Jones </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2024-09-09 19:34</p>\n</div>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>Nvidia looked set to pare back some of its recent losses on Monday, but analysts at Citi are warning that the artificial intelligence-fueled winning streak that powered the chip maker to a trillion-dollar valuation is coming to an end.</p><p>The stock climbed 1% to $104 in premarket trading. On Friday, it had dropped 4.1% to cap off a nightmarish week.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/cc31cf26753a43584c0a2691896657fe\" tg-width=\"784\" tg-height=\"830\"/></p><p>Nvidia shares have tumbled 20% over the past two weeks, dragged down by worries that the AI investing craze that has powered the market higher ever since ChatGPT launched in November 2022 could soon be about to fizzle out.</p><p>The expectation that the Federal Reserve will soon start slashing interest rates has also accelerated a rotation out of the once-dominant Magnificent 7 group of megacap tech stocks. Citi analysts said in a research note on Friday that they don&#39;t expect Nvidia to carry on being a massive driver of returns for the benchmark S&amp;P 500 index, even though they&#39;re predicting that its profit growth will remain strong.</p><p>&#34;Our sense is that Nvidia is becoming just another large-cap growth stock,&#34; a team led by U.S. equity strategist Scott Chronert wrote. &#34;A simple look at the deceleration in rate of forward guidance increases suggests that its most profound performance and fundamental impacts on index price action may be behind it.&#34;</p><p>They added that the selloff after Nvidia&#39;s solid, but not spectacular, earnings is a sign that the semiconductor giant&#39;s status as an AI darling is fading.</p><p>Among other chip makers, Advanced Micro Devices rose 1% ahead of the opening bell. Broadcom climbed 0.9%, and Qualcomm was up 1.2%. Futures for the S&amp;P 500 ticked up 0.6%.</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"IE00BWXC8680.SGD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A5\" (SGD) ACC","IE00BK4W5M84.HKD":"HSBC GLOBAL FUNDS ICAV US EQUITY INDEX \"HC\" (HKD) ACC","LU0466842654.USD":"HSBC ISLAMIC GLOBAL EQUITY INDEX \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU1852331112.SGD":"Blackrock World Technology Fund A2 SGD-H","IE00BD6J9T35.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN NEXT GENERATION MOBILITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE00BGHQF631.EUR":"GUINNESS GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME \"C\" (EUR) ACC","IE00BMPRXQ63.HKD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN NEXT GENERATION CONNECTIVITY FUND \"A\" (HKDHDG) ACC","IE00BVYPNV92.GBP":"GUINNESS GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME \"C\" (GBP) ACC","LU0444971666.USD":"天利全球科技基金","LU1064131342.USD":"Fullerton Lux Funds - Global Absolute Alpha A Acc USD","IE00B3PB1722.GBP":"GUINNESS GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME \"C\" (GBP) INC","IE00B42XCP33.USD":"GUINNESS GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME \"C\" (USD) INC","IE00BKVL7J92.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - US Equity Sustainability Leaders A Acc USD","IE00B7KXQ091.USD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Inc USD","BK4543":"AI","LU1316542783.SGD":"Janus Henderson Horizon Global Technology Leaders A2 SGD","IE00BZ9MQY76.HKD":"FTGF CLEARBRIDGE US AGGRESSIVE GROWTH \"A\" (HKD) ACC","IE00B4JS1V06.HKD":"JANUS HENDERSON BALANCED \"A2\" (HKD) ACC","LU2458330169.SGD":"FRANKLIN SHARIAH TECHNOLOGY \"A\" (SGD) ACC","IE0004086264.USD":"BNY MELLON GLOBAL OPPORTUNITIES \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4503":"景林资产持仓","LU2458330243.SGD":"FRANKLIN SHARIAH TECHNOLOGY \"A-H1\" (SGDHDG) ACC","LU0234570918.USD":"高盛全球核心股票组合Acc Close","IE00B894F039.SGD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - US Aggressive Growth A Acc SGD-H","LU0170899867.USD":"EASTSPRING INVESTMENTS WORLD VALUE EQUITY  \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0642271901.SGD":"Janus Henderson Horizon Global Technology Leaders A2 SGD-H","IE00BDCRKT87.USD":"PINEBRIDGE GLOBAL DYNAMIC ASSET ALLOCATION \"ADC\" (USD) INC","IE00BVYPNW00.USD":"GUINNESS GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME \"C\" (USD) ACC","IE00BDGV0183.EUR":"GUINNESS GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME \"C\" (EUR) INC","IE00BK4W5L77.USD":"HSBC GLOBAL FUNDS ICAV US EQUITY INDEX \"HC\" (USD) ACC","LU0719512351.SGD":"JPMorgan Funds - US Technology A (acc) SGD","LU0823421333.USD":"BNP PARIBAS DISRUPTIVE TECHNOLOGY \"C\" (USD) ACC","IE00BZ199S13.USD":"BNY MELLON MOBILITY INNOVATION \"B\" (USD) ACC","LU1803068979.SGD":"FTIF - Franklin Technology A (acc) SGD-H1","LU0048584097.USD":"FIDELITY FUNDS  GLOBAL THEMATIC OPPORTUNITIES \"A\" (USD) INC","IE00BJJMRY28.SGD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Inc SGD","NVDA":"英伟达","BK4549":"软银资本持仓","LU0823421416.USD":"BNP PARIBAS DISRUPTIVE TECHNOLOGY \"C\" (USD) INC","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","LU0234572021.USD":"高盛美国核心股票组合Acc","LU0109392836.USD":"富兰克林科技股A","IE00BZ1G4Q59.USD":"LEGG MASON CLEARBRIDGE US EQUITY SUSTAINABILITY LEADER \"A\"(USD) INC (A)"},"source_url":"https://dowjonesnews.com/newdjn/logon.aspx?AL=N","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2466562131","content_text":"Nvidia looked set to pare back some of its recent losses on Monday, but analysts at Citi are warning that the artificial intelligence-fueled winning streak that powered the chip maker to a trillion-dollar valuation is coming to an end.The stock climbed 1% to $104 in premarket trading. On Friday, it had dropped 4.1% to cap off a nightmarish week.Nvidia shares have tumbled 20% over the past two weeks, dragged down by worries that the AI investing craze that has powered the market higher ever since ChatGPT launched in November 2022 could soon be about to fizzle out.The expectation that the Federal Reserve will soon start slashing interest rates has also accelerated a rotation out of the once-dominant Magnificent 7 group of megacap tech stocks. Citi analysts said in a research note on Friday that they don't expect Nvidia to carry on being a massive driver of returns for the benchmark S&P 500 index, even though they're predicting that its profit growth will remain strong.\"Our sense is that Nvidia is becoming just another large-cap growth stock,\" a team led by U.S. equity strategist Scott Chronert wrote. \"A simple look at the deceleration in rate of forward guidance increases suggests that its most profound performance and fundamental impacts on index price action may be behind it.\"They added that the selloff after Nvidia's solid, but not spectacular, earnings is a sign that the semiconductor giant's status as an AI darling is fading.Among other chip makers, Advanced Micro Devices rose 1% ahead of the opening bell. Broadcom climbed 0.9%, and Qualcomm was up 1.2%. Futures for the S&P 500 ticked up 0.6%.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":421,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":346113790402824,"gmtCreate":1725527210283,"gmtModify":1725527214532,"author":{"id":"3574807189087941","authorId":"3574807189087941","name":"Icywinddale","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/3bd2fbf9d90e26b2f600b2c5d7c54244","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574807189087941","authorIdStr":"3574807189087941"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"May NVDA investors sue Bloomberg on the false news? Bloomberg sucks! Whom we can trust?","listText":"May NVDA investors sue Bloomberg on the false news? Bloomberg sucks! Whom we can trust?","text":"May NVDA investors sue Bloomberg on the false news? Bloomberg sucks! Whom we can trust?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/346113790402824","repostId":"1186916268","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1186916268","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1725523255,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1186916268?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2024-09-05 16:00","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Nvidia, Tesla Shares Rise Nearly 1% in Premarket Trading","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1186916268","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Nvidia rose 1.1% in premarket trading on Thursday; Tesla rose 1.2%. $NVIDIA Corp$  did not receive a U.S. Justice Department subpoena, a spokesperson said in a statement on Wednesday.\"We have inquired with the U.S. Department of Justice and have not been subpoenaed. Nonetheless, we are happy to answer any questions regulators may have about our business.\"Bloomberg News reported on Tuesday the Justice Department had sent a subpoena related to a potential antitrust investigation, which would signa","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Nvidia rose 1.1% in premarket trading on Thursday; Tesla rose 1.2%.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/daa7d365f5b381eaf0e7d5417b4513d5\" tg-width=\"533\" tg-height=\"273\"/></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">NVIDIA Corp</a>  did not receive a U.S. Justice Department subpoena, a spokesperson said in a statement on Wednesday.</p><p>&#34;We have inquired with the U.S. Department of Justice and have not been subpoenaed. Nonetheless, we are happy to answer any questions regulators may have about our business.&#34;</p><p>Bloomberg News reported on Tuesday the Justice Department had sent a subpoena related to a potential antitrust investigation, which would signal an escalation in the probe. Bloomberg News said subpoenas had been sent to other companies in addition to Nvidia.</p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla Motors</a>  plans to launch FSD (Full Self-Driving) in China early next year, a slight delay from previous plans.</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Tesla plans to launch FSD in China and Europe in the first quarter of 2025, pending regulatory approval, Tesla&#39;s AI team&#39;s account, @Tesla_AI, said on social media platform X today.</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">The EV maker&#39;s CEO, Elon Musk, said on an earnings call in July that Tesla would likely receive regulatory approval to launch FSD in other markets, including Europe and China, by the end of this year.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Nvidia, Tesla Shares Rise Nearly 1% in Premarket Trading</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNvidia, Tesla Shares Rise Nearly 1% in Premarket Trading\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2024-09-05 16:00</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>Nvidia rose 1.1% in premarket trading on Thursday; Tesla rose 1.2%.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/daa7d365f5b381eaf0e7d5417b4513d5\" tg-width=\"533\" tg-height=\"273\"/></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">NVIDIA Corp</a>  did not receive a U.S. Justice Department subpoena, a spokesperson said in a statement on Wednesday.</p><p>&#34;We have inquired with the U.S. Department of Justice and have not been subpoenaed. Nonetheless, we are happy to answer any questions regulators may have about our business.&#34;</p><p>Bloomberg News reported on Tuesday the Justice Department had sent a subpoena related to a potential antitrust investigation, which would signal an escalation in the probe. Bloomberg News said subpoenas had been sent to other companies in addition to Nvidia.</p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla Motors</a>  plans to launch FSD (Full Self-Driving) in China early next year, a slight delay from previous plans.</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Tesla plans to launch FSD in China and Europe in the first quarter of 2025, pending regulatory approval, Tesla&#39;s AI team&#39;s account, @Tesla_AI, said on social media platform X today.</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">The EV maker&#39;s CEO, Elon Musk, said on an earnings call in July that Tesla would likely receive regulatory approval to launch FSD in other markets, including Europe and China, by the end of this year.</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLL":"Direxion Daily TSLA Bull 2X Shares","NVDL":"GraniteShares 2x Long NVDA Daily ETF","NVDA":"英伟达","TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1186916268","content_text":"Nvidia rose 1.1% in premarket trading on Thursday; Tesla rose 1.2%. NVIDIA Corp  did not receive a U.S. Justice Department subpoena, a spokesperson said in a statement on Wednesday.\"We have inquired with the U.S. Department of Justice and have not been subpoenaed. Nonetheless, we are happy to answer any questions regulators may have about our business.\"Bloomberg News reported on Tuesday the Justice Department had sent a subpoena related to a potential antitrust investigation, which would signal an escalation in the probe. Bloomberg News said subpoenas had been sent to other companies in addition to Nvidia. Tesla Motors  plans to launch FSD (Full Self-Driving) in China early next year, a slight delay from previous plans.Tesla plans to launch FSD in China and Europe in the first quarter of 2025, pending regulatory approval, Tesla's AI team's account, @Tesla_AI, said on social media platform X today.The EV maker's CEO, Elon Musk, said on an earnings call in July that Tesla would likely receive regulatory approval to launch FSD in other markets, including Europe and China, by the end of this year.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":333,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":345806160150816,"gmtCreate":1725430725198,"gmtModify":1725430728876,"author":{"id":"3574807189087941","authorId":"3574807189087941","name":"Icywinddale","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/3bd2fbf9d90e26b2f600b2c5d7c54244","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574807189087941","authorIdStr":"3574807189087941"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"may drop? &nbsp;Why we need waste time to read this article? [Weak]&nbsp; [Weak]&nbsp;&nbsp;","listText":"may drop? &nbsp;Why we need waste time to read this article? [Weak]&nbsp; [Weak]&nbsp;&nbsp;","text":"may drop? Why we need waste time to read this article? [Weak] [Weak]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/345806160150816","repostId":"2464351176","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2464351176","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1725428700,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2464351176?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2024-09-04 13:45","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Broadcom's Stock May Drop Sharply Following Results","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2464351176","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Broadcom's Q3 earnings forecast shows a 15% year-over-year EPS increase and 46% year-over-year revenue growth, driven mainly by its infrastructure software segment.The software segment, bolstered by V","content":"<html><head></head><body><ul style=\"\"><li><p>Broadcom&#39;s Q3 earnings forecast shows a 15% year-over-year EPS increase and 46% year-over-year revenue growth, driven mainly by its infrastructure software segment.</p></li><li><p>The software segment, bolstered by VMware, is expected to double sales to $5.5 billion, overshadowing modest growth in semiconductor and AI segments.</p></li><li><p>Despite impressive growth, Broadcom&#39;s valuation is high at 26 times earnings, raising concerns about the sustainability of its premium valuation.</p></li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/8c91587eababb5a90a14f1f8183f7b1a\" alt=\"JHVEPhoto\" title=\"JHVEPhoto\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"500\"/><span>JHVEPhoto</span></p><p>Broadcom (NASDAQ:AVGO) will report its fiscal third quarter earnings after the market closes on Sept. 5. Analysts are forecasting a 15% y/y increase in earnings per share to $1.22, alongside a significant 46% y/y growth in revenue, bringing the total to approximately $13 billion. However, it’s important to note that the growth in Broadcom’s Semiconductor Solutions segment is expected to be relatively modest, with an anticipated increase of just 7% y/y, reaching $7.4 billion. The company’s AI segment is projected to see only a slight uptick, growing by 5% q/q to $3.3 billion.</p><h2 id=\"id_648776196\">AI or Not AI</h2><p>In contrast, Broadcom’s infrastructure software segment drives much of the company’s overall growth. This unit is expected to see its sales more than double, reaching $5.5 billion, with VMware contributing $3.3 billion. This shift highlights Broadcom’s growth, which is increasingly coming from its software side, mainly through acquiring VMware, rather than from its traditional semiconductor business. This dynamic may surprise those who view Broadcom primarily as an AI-driven company, which makes up a relatively small amount of total revenue.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/52d0e70018b4ded1cf805bd0e748e128\" alt=\"Bloomberg\" title=\"Bloomberg\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"251\"/><span>Bloomberg</span></p><p>Despite the company’s impressive growth figures, Broadcom no longer provides quarterly guidance, having shifted to offering only annual forecasts. For the current year, the company is targeting $51 billion in revenue, a figure that was reiterated last quarter. Analysts expect it to slightly exceed that at $51.7 billion.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/6d5d225a519e5b40485093100af19f89\" alt=\"Bloomberg\" title=\"Bloomberg\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"251\"/><span>Bloomberg</span></p><h2 id=\"id_4278677996\">No Surprises</h2><p>Broadcom has a history of reporting in line with revenue estimates, with last quarter marking its most significant beat in recent times at 3.5%. Regarding adjusted earnings, the company also tends to beat expectations by a small margin, typically around 1%. Market expectations for Broadcom’s stock movement post earnings are modest, with a projected move of around 6.7%.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/9f1a78a94a703a65991bac4cf430ef68\" alt=\"Bloomberg\" title=\"Bloomberg\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"339\"/><span>Bloomberg</span></p><h2 id=\"id_3511479312\">Options Betting on Further Upside</h2><p>Looking at options positioning for the week of Sept. 6, implied volatility [IV] is relatively modest at 77%, though it should continue to rise heading into the earnings release as event risk builds. The options market is very bullish on Broadcom, as noted by the solid positive call gamma and delta values, particularly around the $160 strike price, with resistance at $170 and support near $150.</p><p>It&#39;s important to note that once the event risk passes, the implied volatility will drop, and both the calls and the puts will see their premiums fall dramatically. As of Sept. 3, a buyer of the $160 calls needs the stock to rise above $166 following the results, or the options will lose value by 6.5%. This is similar to what happened with Nvidia, and if the stock cannot clear $160, option holders could sell their positions. That may be hard to do, considering the implied move being priced in by the market is just 6.75%, as already noted.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/13056874964d6a821c5d80a23dd8cfae\" alt=\"Bloomberg\" title=\"Bloomberg\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"251\"/><span>Bloomberg</span></p><h2 id=\"id_623294998\">Already At Support</h2><p>From a technical perspective, Broadcom’s stock is currently trading around $155, a level that had previously served as support. The $170 area appears to be a key resistance point, while the $136 region has recently been a support zone.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/c37dc34a2c29767ce2b7f2bbae4a8beb\" alt=\"TradingView\" title=\"TradingView\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"291\"/><span>TradingView</span></p><h2 id=\"id_3577052737\">Not Cheap</h2><p>Valuation wise, Broadcom is trading at 26 times earnings, significantly higher than its historical average of around 13 to 14 times. On a price-to-sales basis, the stock is currently valued at 12 to 13 times sales, well above historical norms. This elevated valuation suggests that much of the optimism around Broadcom is tied to its AI prospects, despite the bulk of its growth coming from the VMware acquisition.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/8df38f6c2538ff1c591f7436fa2c929a\" alt=\"Bloomberg\" title=\"Bloomberg\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"288\"/><span>Bloomberg</span></p><p>While Broadcom’s AI business is expected to contribute significantly to its revenue in the coming years, its current valuation appears stretched, particularly when compared to its historical trends. Investors seem to be betting on further upside, but the steep valuation raises questions about whether Broadcom can continue to justify its premium valuation.</p><p>Additionally, the big risk here is that Broadcom does what it normally does when it reports results, delivering as expected. If that should happen, the overly bullish options market is likely to bring a lot of stock for sale, pushing shares lower, and making the call options a losing bet.</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Broadcom's Stock May Drop Sharply Following Results</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBroadcom's Stock May Drop Sharply Following Results\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-09-04 13:45 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4718714-broadcom-stock-may-drop-sharply-following-results><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Broadcom's Q3 earnings forecast shows a 15% year-over-year EPS increase and 46% year-over-year revenue growth, driven mainly by its infrastructure software segment.The software segment, bolstered by ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4718714-broadcom-stock-may-drop-sharply-following-results\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"LU0345769631.USD":"NINETY ONE GSF GLOBAL EQUITY \"A\" (USD) INC","LU0820561818.USD":"安联收益及增长平衡基金Cl AM DIS","BK4515":"5G概念","IE00BKVL7J92.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - US Equity Sustainability Leaders A Acc USD","LU0127658192.USD":"EASTSPRING INVESTMENTS GLOBAL TECHNOLOGY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0444971666.USD":"天利全球科技基金","LU0203345920.USD":"SCHRODER ISF QEP GLB ACT. VL \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","LU0256863811.USD":"ALLIANZ US EQUITY \"A\" INC","IE00BZ9MQY76.HKD":"FTGF CLEARBRIDGE US AGGRESSIVE GROWTH \"A\" (HKD) ACC","LU0476273544.USD":"CT (LUX) I GLOBAL TECHNOLOGY \"BU\" (USD) ACC","IE00BLSP4452.SGD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - Tactical Dividend Income A Mdis SGD-H Plus","LU0943347566.SGD":"安联收益及增长平衡基金AM H2-SGD","BK4575":"芯片概念","BK4566":"资本集团","LU0234570918.USD":"高盛全球核心股票组合Acc Close","LU0417517546.SGD":"Allianz US Equity Cl AT Acc SGD","LU0170899867.USD":"EASTSPRING INVESTMENTS WORLD VALUE EQUITY  \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0942090050.USD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY SICAV - US TOTAL YIELD SUSTAINABLE \"P\" (USD)  INC","LU0444973449.USD":"CT (LUX) I GLOBAL TECHNOLOGY \"DU\" (USD) ACC","LU0889565833.HKD":"FRANKLIN TECHNOLOGY \"A\" (HKD) ACC","IE00BN8TJ469.HKD":"FTGF CLEARBRIDGE TACTICAL DIVIDEND INCOME \"A\" (HKD) INC","BK4588":"碎股","LU0056508442.USD":"贝莱德世界科技基金A2","IE00B1XK9C88.USD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4141":"半导体产品","AVGO":"博通","LU0868494708.USD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY SICAV - US TOTAL YIELD SUSTAINABLE \"P\" (USD) INC","IE00BMPRXR70.SGD":"Neuberger Berman 5G Connectivity A Acc SGD-H","IE00BMPRXN33.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN 5G CONNECTIVITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4551":"寇图资本持仓","IE00BJLML261.HKD":"HSBC GLOBAL EQUITY INDEX \"HCH\" (HKD) ACC","LU0081259029.USD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY FUND - TECH OPPORTUNITY \"P\" (USD) ACC","LU0234572021.USD":"高盛美国核心股票组合Acc","LU0820561909.HKD":"ALLIANZ INCOME AND GROWTH \"AM\" (HKD) INC","LU0109392836.USD":"富兰克林科技股A","BK4581":"高盛持仓","IE00B5949003.HKD":"JANUS HENDERSON GLOBAL TECHNOLOGY AND INNOVATION \"A\" (HKD) ACC","IE00B19Z9Z06.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - US Aggressive Growth A Acc USD","IE00BWXC8680.SGD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A5\" (SGD) ACC","LU0097036916.USD":"贝莱德美国增长A2 USD","LU0466842654.USD":"HSBC ISLAMIC GLOBAL EQUITY INDEX \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0689472784.USD":"安联收益及增长基金Cl AM AT Acc","LU0345769128.USD":"NINETY ONE GSF GLOBAL EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0861579265.USD":"联博低波幅策略股票基金A","LU0198837287.USD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY SICAV - USA GROWTH \"P\" (USD) ACC","LU0323591593.USD":"SCHRODER ISF QEP GLOBAL QUALITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0096364046.USD":"CT (LUX) I AMERICAN \"DU\" (USD) ACC","IE00BMPRXQ63.HKD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN NEXT GENERATION CONNECTIVITY FUND \"A\" (HKDHDG) ACC"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4718714-broadcom-stock-may-drop-sharply-following-results","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"2464351176","content_text":"Broadcom's Q3 earnings forecast shows a 15% year-over-year EPS increase and 46% year-over-year revenue growth, driven mainly by its infrastructure software segment.The software segment, bolstered by VMware, is expected to double sales to $5.5 billion, overshadowing modest growth in semiconductor and AI segments.Despite impressive growth, Broadcom's valuation is high at 26 times earnings, raising concerns about the sustainability of its premium valuation.JHVEPhotoBroadcom (NASDAQ:AVGO) will report its fiscal third quarter earnings after the market closes on Sept. 5. Analysts are forecasting a 15% y/y increase in earnings per share to $1.22, alongside a significant 46% y/y growth in revenue, bringing the total to approximately $13 billion. However, it’s important to note that the growth in Broadcom’s Semiconductor Solutions segment is expected to be relatively modest, with an anticipated increase of just 7% y/y, reaching $7.4 billion. The company’s AI segment is projected to see only a slight uptick, growing by 5% q/q to $3.3 billion.AI or Not AIIn contrast, Broadcom’s infrastructure software segment drives much of the company’s overall growth. This unit is expected to see its sales more than double, reaching $5.5 billion, with VMware contributing $3.3 billion. This shift highlights Broadcom’s growth, which is increasingly coming from its software side, mainly through acquiring VMware, rather than from its traditional semiconductor business. This dynamic may surprise those who view Broadcom primarily as an AI-driven company, which makes up a relatively small amount of total revenue.BloombergDespite the company’s impressive growth figures, Broadcom no longer provides quarterly guidance, having shifted to offering only annual forecasts. For the current year, the company is targeting $51 billion in revenue, a figure that was reiterated last quarter. Analysts expect it to slightly exceed that at $51.7 billion.BloombergNo SurprisesBroadcom has a history of reporting in line with revenue estimates, with last quarter marking its most significant beat in recent times at 3.5%. Regarding adjusted earnings, the company also tends to beat expectations by a small margin, typically around 1%. Market expectations for Broadcom’s stock movement post earnings are modest, with a projected move of around 6.7%.BloombergOptions Betting on Further UpsideLooking at options positioning for the week of Sept. 6, implied volatility [IV] is relatively modest at 77%, though it should continue to rise heading into the earnings release as event risk builds. The options market is very bullish on Broadcom, as noted by the solid positive call gamma and delta values, particularly around the $160 strike price, with resistance at $170 and support near $150.It's important to note that once the event risk passes, the implied volatility will drop, and both the calls and the puts will see their premiums fall dramatically. As of Sept. 3, a buyer of the $160 calls needs the stock to rise above $166 following the results, or the options will lose value by 6.5%. This is similar to what happened with Nvidia, and if the stock cannot clear $160, option holders could sell their positions. That may be hard to do, considering the implied move being priced in by the market is just 6.75%, as already noted.BloombergAlready At SupportFrom a technical perspective, Broadcom’s stock is currently trading around $155, a level that had previously served as support. The $170 area appears to be a key resistance point, while the $136 region has recently been a support zone.TradingViewNot CheapValuation wise, Broadcom is trading at 26 times earnings, significantly higher than its historical average of around 13 to 14 times. On a price-to-sales basis, the stock is currently valued at 12 to 13 times sales, well above historical norms. This elevated valuation suggests that much of the optimism around Broadcom is tied to its AI prospects, despite the bulk of its growth coming from the VMware acquisition.BloombergWhile Broadcom’s AI business is expected to contribute significantly to its revenue in the coming years, its current valuation appears stretched, particularly when compared to its historical trends. Investors seem to be betting on further upside, but the steep valuation raises questions about whether Broadcom can continue to justify its premium valuation.Additionally, the big risk here is that Broadcom does what it normally does when it reports results, delivering as expected. If that should happen, the overly bullish options market is likely to bring a lot of stock for sale, pushing shares lower, and making the call options a losing bet.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":507,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":345446838050944,"gmtCreate":1725379900830,"gmtModify":1725379902772,"author":{"id":"3574807189087941","authorId":"3574807189087941","name":"Icywinddale","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/3bd2fbf9d90e26b2f600b2c5d7c54244","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574807189087941","authorIdStr":"3574807189087941"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Share your opinion about this news…","listText":"Share your opinion about this news…","text":"Share your opinion about this news…","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/345446838050944","repostId":"2464383499","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2464383499","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1725377795,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2464383499?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2024-09-03 23:36","market":"nz","language":"en","title":"Nvidia Stock Is Selling Off: It's Not Because Of Blackwell","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2464383499","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"We look at this and more below. Q2 Revenue Beats Estimates Q2’s revenue of $30.04 billion increased 122% YoY and 15% QoQ, with management pointing out that “customers continue to accelerate their Hopper architecture purchases while gearing up to adopt Blackwell.” This marked a $1.3 billion beat to the consensus estimate for $28.75 billion. It also was a deceleration from 262% YoY growth in Q1, as Nvidia is","content":"<html><head></head><body><ul style=\"\"><li><p>Despite this being one of the “smaller” beats in recent quarters, it’s a testament to the strength of Nvidia Corporation’s demand to guide for $2.5 billion sequential growth.</p></li><li><p>Direct liquid cooling doesn’t lie, as it’s intricately linked to the Blackwell launch, implying that Blackwell would indeed ship by Q4.</p></li><li><p>Margins remained strong in Q2, with Nvidia reporting gross and operating margins at the high end and above guided ranges. However, management guided for Q3 margins to contract slightly QoQ.</p></li></ul><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/ee213c33513fe93579d4696a7c904900\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"500\"/></p><p>Sundry Photography</p><p></p><p>Our firm extrapolated supply chain data to conclude that Blackwell <em>is</em> in production at Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) and Super Micro Computer (SMCI) last week in the analysis: Nvidia Stock: Blackwell Suppliers Shrug Off Delay. The media was making much ado about nothing (and astonishingly, still is) despite crystal clear confirmation from Nvidia’s (NASDAQ:NVDA) management team that all is well.</p><p>Given these delay rumors, it was widely expected that Nvidia’s management would provide some transparency in Q2 as to the status of Blackwell. I joined ‘Making Money’ on Fox Business Network shortly before Nvidia’s report, telling host Charles Payne that “we are getting bullish signals from the supply chain,” such as TSM’s HPC growth and Super Micro’s liquid cooling growth, and that I “fully expect Nvidia’s management team to calm any concerns about the outlook for Blackwell.”</p><p>Direct liquid cooling doesn’t lie as it’s intricately linked to the Blackwell launch, implying that Blackwell would indeed ship by Q4 – and Nvidia just confirmed that (multiple times) in Q2’s release (emphasis added):</p><blockquote><p>Blackwell production ramp is scheduled to begin in the fourth quarter and continue into fiscal 2026. <strong>In the fourth quarter, we expect to ship several billion dollars in Blackwell revenue</strong>.”</p></blockquote><p>Later in the call, Jensen Huang stated:</p><blockquote><p>There were no functional changes necessary. And so we&#39;re sampling functional samples of Blackwell — Grace Blackwell in a variety of system configurations as we speak. There are something like 100 different types of Blackwell-based systems that are built that were shown at Computex. And we&#39;re enabling our ecosystem to start sampling those. The functionality of Blackwell is as it is, and we expect to start production in Q4.”</p></blockquote><p>We had published for our free readers going into the print that the valuation was stretched, and it would require fiscal year revisions to create room in the valuation. As you’ll see below, we got a few revisions today, which is paramount for the stock price. Will these upward revisions be enough to sustain the price? We look at this and more below.</p><h2 id=\"id_3290045767\">Q2 Revenue Beats Estimates</h2><p>Q2’s revenue of $30.04 billion increased 122% YoY and 15% QoQ, with management pointing out that “customers continue to accelerate their Hopper architecture purchases while gearing up to adopt Blackwell.” This marked a $1.3 billion beat to the consensus estimate for $28.75 billion. It also was a deceleration from 262% YoY growth in Q1, as Nvidia is now facing tougher comps against the vertical ramp of Hopper last year. GAAP EPS of $0.67 beat estimates by $0.03, and represented YoY growth of 168% and QoQ growth of 12%.</p><p>Nvidia guided for Q3 revenue of $32.5 billion, once again above consensus estimates, though it was only $700 million higher than the $31.77 billion estimate at the midpoint. This represents growth of 79.4% YoY at midpoint, compared to the estimate for 75.3% growth next quarter. Despite this being one of the “smaller beats” in recent quarters, it’s a testament to the strength of Nvidia’s demand to guide for $2.5 billion sequential growth primarily based on Hopper demand with no contribution from Blackwell.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/3e797affa322bf8b07352a00dea24009\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"389\"/></p><p>Tech Insider Network</p><p></p><h2 id=\"id_3356155711\">Data Center Strength Visible with Blackwell on Tap</h2><p>Data center revenue surpassed a $105 billion annualized run rate this quarter, up from $90 billion annualized last quarter, as Nvidia reported $26.27 billion in data center revenue, up 152% YoY and 16% QoQ. Nvidia said that “Hopper demand is strong, and shipments are expected to increase in the second half of fiscal 2025,” while Blackwell is on track to ramp in Q4 with “several” billions in revenue expected that quarter.</p><p><strong>Notably, purchase commitments and obligations for inventory and capacity rose nearly 48% QoQ to $27.8 billion</strong>, <strong>including “new commitments for Blackwell capacity and components,” another signal that Nvidia is prepared to ramp in full-force come Q4.</strong></p><p>In the segment, compute revenue was $22.6 billion, up 162% YoY, while networking revenue was $3.67 billion, up 114% YoY. In networking, Nvidia noted that InfiniBand and Ethernet drove growth in the quarter, and the 16% QoQ growth included “a doubling of Ethernet for AI revenue.”</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/6838c93116c97f7f470e16c9d239b4c3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"394\"/></p><p>Tech Insider Network</p><p></p><p>Nvidia’s Q3 revenue guide implies data center revenue above $28 billion to $28.5 billion, which we had modeled in our pre-earnings analysis earlier this week.</p><h2 id=\"id_3574828977\">Delay Concerns Cleared, But Valuation Looks Stretched</h2><p>Nvidia cleared the delay concerns for Blackwell, saying that they “shipped customer samples of our Blackwell architecture in the second quarter. We executed a change to the Blackwell GPU mask to improve production yield. Blackwell production ramp is scheduled to begin in the fourth quarter and continue into fiscal 2026,” with several billion in Blackwell revenue expected in Q4. <strong>Purchase commitments reiterated that Nvidia is serious about launching on schedule, and lining up the capacity and components to launch in full-force by the end of the year.</strong></p><p>I spoke with Yahoo Finance on Thursday morning following the report, reemphasizing that the delay concerns were</p><blockquote><p>“completely thrown off the table last night. … Wall Street obviously is very closely tied to estimates, and we never saw revisions downward based on the so-called delay. … Nvidia beat, and they’re saying Blackwell is basically on time,” which is “not a concern — if anything, it’s extremely bullish.”</p></blockquote><p>However, I cautioned on the valuation:</p><blockquote><p>“When you have a high-flyer like Nvidia, you get stretched at times. Going into the print, we warned our members that this valuation is looking a little toppy. What we need is for the fiscal year estimates next year to go up, so we’re in a waiting game for analysts to revise their estimates upward, which eventually they will, but until then the valuation is stretched.”</p></blockquote><p>This morning, while I was being interviewed by Yahoo, we’ve already seen analyst estimates for Nvidia’s revenue revised higher following the report:</p><ul style=\"\"><li><p>Fiscal 2025 revenue is now estimated at $124.8 billion, up 3.9% from the $120.1 billion estimate before Q2’s report.</p></li><li><p>Fiscal 2026 revenue is now estimated at $172.1 billion, up 5.2% from the $163.6 billion estimate before the report.</p></li></ul><p>However, the true impact of Blackwell is yet to be seen in these estimates, with the only clues right now being Q3’s $32.5 billion guide and expectations for several billion in Blackwell revenue in Q4. From a long-term perspective, I explained on Yahoo Finance that the first “pathway for growth is to pay very close attention to Nvidia around the fiscal year guide,” while the “second-biggest moment of the year will be when Blackwell is shipping in volume. This will be the Q2 report, but we’ll get some signs in Q1 with that forward guide.” I believe that “early next year will be fireworks” for Nvidia, similar to Hopper’s moment in the fiscal Q1 report in May 2023.</p><h2 id=\"id_3790633464\">Eyes on Margins as Blackwell Ramps</h2><p>Margins remained strong in Q2, with Nvidia reporting gross and operating margins at the high end and above its guided ranges. However, management guided for Q3 margins to contract slightly QoQ, suggesting that Q1 was the peak for both gross and operating margins with some pressure ahead as Blackwell gears up to launch in Q4.</p><ul style=\"\"><li><p>GAAP gross margin was 75.1% in Q2, ahead of management’s guide for 74.8%. Adjusted gross margin was 75.7%, ahead of guidance for 75.5%. Per the CFO: “As our Data Center mix continues to shift to new products, we expect this trend to continue into the fourth quarter of fiscal 2025.” It’s likely she is referring to the higher cost of memory components, which we outlined in our pre-earnings analysis.</p></li><li><p>GAAP operating margin was 62.1%, ahead of the implied guide for 60.5%, indicative of the operating leverage power that Nvidia still commands in mid-launch cycle for Hopper with the H200s shipping now. Adjusted operating margin was 66.4%, ahead of the implied guide of 65.5%.</p></li><li><p>GAAP net margin was 55.3% down from 57.1% last quarter. This represents profits of $16.6 billion, up over $2 billion. This was a considerable beat compared to the $14.3 billion guided.</p></li></ul><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/ad11c9859a385f1bcb2a07b3c64278dc\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"435\"/></p><p>Tech Insider Network</p><p></p><p>The chart above shows Nvidia’s margins, with the slight sequential contraction this quarter and next quarter visible. It’s no small feat to maintain GAAP operating margin &gt;60% for four consecutive quarters while simultaneously undergoing the semiconductor industry’s most advanced and most rapid product release cycle. However, with management guiding for full-year gross margins to be in the mid-70% range, we’ll be keeping a close eye on how margins trend in Q3 heading into Q4 as Blackwell ramps — where the market is a tad concerned is gross margins, which peaked at 78.4% and will exit the year in the mid-70% range.</p><h2 id=\"id_4176203671\">Conclusion</h2><p>Our pre-earnings write-up expressed concerns about the valuation going into the print, and I think the selling on Thursday reflects the valuation. Our firm stuck our neck out over the past few weeks to bring quality information to our readers on how the supply chain for Blackwell is ramping. We were the first and only firm that I’m aware of to present actionable data that countered what other media outlets were reporting. To refresh your memory, media outlets stated Blackwell was delayed into Q1:</p><blockquote><p>If the upcoming AI chips, known as the B100, B200 and GB200, are delayed three months or more, it may prevent some customers from operating large clusters of the chips in their data centers in the first quarter of 2025, as they had planned.”</p></blockquote><p>In contrast, my analysis stated:</p><blockquote><p>From the horse’s mouth, Nvidia’s own management team, it was stated during the GTC Financial Analyst Day in March that the very first systems will ship in Q4, but to expect constraints.”</p></blockquote><p>Well, we have our answer – Blackwell is, in fact, shipping in Q4 and ramping in Q1. Purchase commitments up 48% QoQ help to reflect how serious the company is when it comes to the speed of ramping shipments.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/3af6cab45517e73899d633e9f930950d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"988\"/></p><p>x.com</p><p></p><p>Earnings reports are truly 50/50 – nobody can tell you what the market will do following a report. For example, we had high confidence Nvidia would beat, but there’s much more to consider than a beat. What’s important is to have a strategy. Our firm champions actively managing tech positions rather than buy-and-hold.</p><p>Our plan is to trim Nvidia Corporation stock at key levels and attempt to buy lower. This is due to valuation concerns, but also importantly, many AI stocks are trading at stretched valuations. We’ve stated publicly a few times that Nvidia is a buy on dips, implying investors who are patient will find entries at lower prices.</p><p><strong>Recommended Reading:</strong></p><ul style=\"\"><li><p><strong>Nvidia Stock: Blackwell Suppliers Shrug Off Delay Ahead Of Q2 Earnings</strong></p></li><li><p><strong>Arm Stock: Buy Its Customers, Not The Stock</strong></p></li><li><p><strong>Big Tech Battles On AI, Here’s The Winner</strong></p></li><li><p><strong>Palantir’s Stock is Priced for Perfection</strong></p></li></ul><p>Editor&#39;s Note: This article discusses one or more securities that do not trade on a major U.S. exchange. Please be aware of the risks associated with these stocks.</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Nvidia Stock Is Selling Off: It's Not Because Of Blackwell</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ 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}\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNvidia Stock Is Selling Off: It's Not Because Of Blackwell\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-09-03 23:36 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4718668-nvidia-stock-is-selling-off-its-not-because-of-blackwell><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Despite this being one of the “smaller” beats in recent quarters, it’s a testament to the strength of Nvidia Corporation’s demand to guide for $2.5 billion sequential growth.Direct liquid cooling ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4718668-nvidia-stock-is-selling-off-its-not-because-of-blackwell\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"IE00BJLML261.HKD":"HSBC GLOBAL EQUITY INDEX \"HCH\" (HKD) ACC","IE00BYQQ9H92.USD":"BNY MELLON GLOBAL LEADERS \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU1868837565.USD":"CT (LUX) I GLOBAL EMERGING MARKET EQUITIES \"1\" (USD) ACC","LU2357125470.USD":"BNP PARIBAS ENERGY TRANSITION \"CLASSIC RH\" (USDHDG) ACC","LU1267930813.SGD":"FRANKLIN TEMPLETON SHARIAH GLOBAL EQUITY \"AS\" (SGD) ACC","IE00BK4W5L77.USD":"HSBC GLOBAL FUNDS ICAV US EQUITY INDEX \"HC\" (USD) ACC","LU0143863198.USD":"CT (LUX) I GLOBAL EMERGING MARKET EQUITIES\"AU\" (USD) ACC","LU2294711713.HKD":"BNP PARIBAS ENERGY TRANSITION \"C\" (HKD) ACC","LU0057025933.USD":"SUSTAINABLE GLOBAL THEMATIC PORTFOLIO \"AX\" (USD) ACC","IE00BK4W5M84.HKD":"HSBC GLOBAL FUNDS ICAV US EQUITY INDEX \"HC\" (HKD) ACC","IE00BWXC8680.SGD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A5\" (SGD) ACC","LU0061474705.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) GLOBAL DYNAMIC REAL RETURN \"AU\" (USD) ACC","LU0878005551.USD":"UBS (LUX) KEY SELEC ASIA ALLOCATION OPPORTUNITY (USD) \"P\" (USD) ACC","IE00BMPRXQ63.HKD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN NEXT GENERATION CONNECTIVITY FUND \"A\" (HKDHDG) ACC","LU0061475181.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) AMERICAN \"AU\" (USD) 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A2","LU0541502299.USD":"ALLSPRING  EMERGING MARKETS EQUITY \"I\" (USD) ACC","GB00BDT5M118.USD":"天利环球扩展Alpha基金A Acc","LU0889565833.HKD":"FRANKLIN TECHNOLOGY \"A\" (HKD) ACC","LU0143863784.USD":"CT (LUX) I GLOBAL EMERGING MARKET EQUITIES\"DU\" (USD) ACC","LU0823421333.USD":"BNP PARIBAS DISRUPTIVE TECHNOLOGY \"C\" (USD) ACC","IE00BZ199S13.USD":"BNY MELLON MOBILITY INNOVATION \"B\" (USD) ACC","LU2125154778.USD":"ALLSPRING GLOBAL EQUITY ENHANCED INCOME \"A\" (USD) INC","LU0823414551.USD":"BNP PARIBAS ENERGY TRANSITION \"C\" (USD) INC","IE00B1XK9C88.USD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0823421416.USD":"BNP PARIBAS DISRUPTIVE TECHNOLOGY \"C\" (USD) INC","IE00BMPRXR70.SGD":"Neuberger Berman 5G Connectivity A Acc SGD-H"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4718668-nvidia-stock-is-selling-off-its-not-because-of-blackwell","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"2464383499","content_text":"Despite this being one of the “smaller” beats in recent quarters, it’s a testament to the strength of Nvidia Corporation’s demand to guide for $2.5 billion sequential growth.Direct liquid cooling doesn’t lie, as it’s intricately linked to the Blackwell launch, implying that Blackwell would indeed ship by Q4.Margins remained strong in Q2, with Nvidia reporting gross and operating margins at the high end and above guided ranges. However, management guided for Q3 margins to contract slightly QoQ.Sundry PhotographyOur firm extrapolated supply chain data to conclude that Blackwell is in production at Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) and Super Micro Computer (SMCI) last week in the analysis: Nvidia Stock: Blackwell Suppliers Shrug Off Delay. The media was making much ado about nothing (and astonishingly, still is) despite crystal clear confirmation from Nvidia’s (NASDAQ:NVDA) management team that all is well.Given these delay rumors, it was widely expected that Nvidia’s management would provide some transparency in Q2 as to the status of Blackwell. I joined ‘Making Money’ on Fox Business Network shortly before Nvidia’s report, telling host Charles Payne that “we are getting bullish signals from the supply chain,” such as TSM’s HPC growth and Super Micro’s liquid cooling growth, and that I “fully expect Nvidia’s management team to calm any concerns about the outlook for Blackwell.”Direct liquid cooling doesn’t lie as it’s intricately linked to the Blackwell launch, implying that Blackwell would indeed ship by Q4 – and Nvidia just confirmed that (multiple times) in Q2’s release (emphasis added):Blackwell production ramp is scheduled to begin in the fourth quarter and continue into fiscal 2026. In the fourth quarter, we expect to ship several billion dollars in Blackwell revenue.”Later in the call, Jensen Huang stated:There were no functional changes necessary. And so we're sampling functional samples of Blackwell — Grace Blackwell in a variety of system configurations as we speak. There are something like 100 different types of Blackwell-based systems that are built that were shown at Computex. And we're enabling our ecosystem to start sampling those. The functionality of Blackwell is as it is, and we expect to start production in Q4.”We had published for our free readers going into the print that the valuation was stretched, and it would require fiscal year revisions to create room in the valuation. As you’ll see below, we got a few revisions today, which is paramount for the stock price. Will these upward revisions be enough to sustain the price? We look at this and more below.Q2 Revenue Beats EstimatesQ2’s revenue of $30.04 billion increased 122% YoY and 15% QoQ, with management pointing out that “customers continue to accelerate their Hopper architecture purchases while gearing up to adopt Blackwell.” This marked a $1.3 billion beat to the consensus estimate for $28.75 billion. It also was a deceleration from 262% YoY growth in Q1, as Nvidia is now facing tougher comps against the vertical ramp of Hopper last year. GAAP EPS of $0.67 beat estimates by $0.03, and represented YoY growth of 168% and QoQ growth of 12%.Nvidia guided for Q3 revenue of $32.5 billion, once again above consensus estimates, though it was only $700 million higher than the $31.77 billion estimate at the midpoint. This represents growth of 79.4% YoY at midpoint, compared to the estimate for 75.3% growth next quarter. Despite this being one of the “smaller beats” in recent quarters, it’s a testament to the strength of Nvidia’s demand to guide for $2.5 billion sequential growth primarily based on Hopper demand with no contribution from Blackwell.Tech Insider NetworkData Center Strength Visible with Blackwell on TapData center revenue surpassed a $105 billion annualized run rate this quarter, up from $90 billion annualized last quarter, as Nvidia reported $26.27 billion in data center revenue, up 152% YoY and 16% QoQ. Nvidia said that “Hopper demand is strong, and shipments are expected to increase in the second half of fiscal 2025,” while Blackwell is on track to ramp in Q4 with “several” billions in revenue expected that quarter.Notably, purchase commitments and obligations for inventory and capacity rose nearly 48% QoQ to $27.8 billion, including “new commitments for Blackwell capacity and components,” another signal that Nvidia is prepared to ramp in full-force come Q4.In the segment, compute revenue was $22.6 billion, up 162% YoY, while networking revenue was $3.67 billion, up 114% YoY. In networking, Nvidia noted that InfiniBand and Ethernet drove growth in the quarter, and the 16% QoQ growth included “a doubling of Ethernet for AI revenue.”Tech Insider NetworkNvidia’s Q3 revenue guide implies data center revenue above $28 billion to $28.5 billion, which we had modeled in our pre-earnings analysis earlier this week.Delay Concerns Cleared, But Valuation Looks StretchedNvidia cleared the delay concerns for Blackwell, saying that they “shipped customer samples of our Blackwell architecture in the second quarter. We executed a change to the Blackwell GPU mask to improve production yield. Blackwell production ramp is scheduled to begin in the fourth quarter and continue into fiscal 2026,” with several billion in Blackwell revenue expected in Q4. Purchase commitments reiterated that Nvidia is serious about launching on schedule, and lining up the capacity and components to launch in full-force by the end of the year.I spoke with Yahoo Finance on Thursday morning following the report, reemphasizing that the delay concerns were“completely thrown off the table last night. … Wall Street obviously is very closely tied to estimates, and we never saw revisions downward based on the so-called delay. … Nvidia beat, and they’re saying Blackwell is basically on time,” which is “not a concern — if anything, it’s extremely bullish.”However, I cautioned on the valuation:“When you have a high-flyer like Nvidia, you get stretched at times. Going into the print, we warned our members that this valuation is looking a little toppy. What we need is for the fiscal year estimates next year to go up, so we’re in a waiting game for analysts to revise their estimates upward, which eventually they will, but until then the valuation is stretched.”This morning, while I was being interviewed by Yahoo, we’ve already seen analyst estimates for Nvidia’s revenue revised higher following the report:Fiscal 2025 revenue is now estimated at $124.8 billion, up 3.9% from the $120.1 billion estimate before Q2’s report.Fiscal 2026 revenue is now estimated at $172.1 billion, up 5.2% from the $163.6 billion estimate before the report.However, the true impact of Blackwell is yet to be seen in these estimates, with the only clues right now being Q3’s $32.5 billion guide and expectations for several billion in Blackwell revenue in Q4. From a long-term perspective, I explained on Yahoo Finance that the first “pathway for growth is to pay very close attention to Nvidia around the fiscal year guide,” while the “second-biggest moment of the year will be when Blackwell is shipping in volume. This will be the Q2 report, but we’ll get some signs in Q1 with that forward guide.” I believe that “early next year will be fireworks” for Nvidia, similar to Hopper’s moment in the fiscal Q1 report in May 2023.Eyes on Margins as Blackwell RampsMargins remained strong in Q2, with Nvidia reporting gross and operating margins at the high end and above its guided ranges. However, management guided for Q3 margins to contract slightly QoQ, suggesting that Q1 was the peak for both gross and operating margins with some pressure ahead as Blackwell gears up to launch in Q4.GAAP gross margin was 75.1% in Q2, ahead of management’s guide for 74.8%. Adjusted gross margin was 75.7%, ahead of guidance for 75.5%. Per the CFO: “As our Data Center mix continues to shift to new products, we expect this trend to continue into the fourth quarter of fiscal 2025.” It’s likely she is referring to the higher cost of memory components, which we outlined in our pre-earnings analysis.GAAP operating margin was 62.1%, ahead of the implied guide for 60.5%, indicative of the operating leverage power that Nvidia still commands in mid-launch cycle for Hopper with the H200s shipping now. Adjusted operating margin was 66.4%, ahead of the implied guide of 65.5%.GAAP net margin was 55.3% down from 57.1% last quarter. This represents profits of $16.6 billion, up over $2 billion. This was a considerable beat compared to the $14.3 billion guided.Tech Insider NetworkThe chart above shows Nvidia’s margins, with the slight sequential contraction this quarter and next quarter visible. It’s no small feat to maintain GAAP operating margin >60% for four consecutive quarters while simultaneously undergoing the semiconductor industry’s most advanced and most rapid product release cycle. However, with management guiding for full-year gross margins to be in the mid-70% range, we’ll be keeping a close eye on how margins trend in Q3 heading into Q4 as Blackwell ramps — where the market is a tad concerned is gross margins, which peaked at 78.4% and will exit the year in the mid-70% range.ConclusionOur pre-earnings write-up expressed concerns about the valuation going into the print, and I think the selling on Thursday reflects the valuation. Our firm stuck our neck out over the past few weeks to bring quality information to our readers on how the supply chain for Blackwell is ramping. We were the first and only firm that I’m aware of to present actionable data that countered what other media outlets were reporting. To refresh your memory, media outlets stated Blackwell was delayed into Q1:If the upcoming AI chips, known as the B100, B200 and GB200, are delayed three months or more, it may prevent some customers from operating large clusters of the chips in their data centers in the first quarter of 2025, as they had planned.”In contrast, my analysis stated:From the horse’s mouth, Nvidia’s own management team, it was stated during the GTC Financial Analyst Day in March that the very first systems will ship in Q4, but to expect constraints.”Well, we have our answer – Blackwell is, in fact, shipping in Q4 and ramping in Q1. Purchase commitments up 48% QoQ help to reflect how serious the company is when it comes to the speed of ramping shipments.x.comEarnings reports are truly 50/50 – nobody can tell you what the market will do following a report. For example, we had high confidence Nvidia would beat, but there’s much more to consider than a beat. What’s important is to have a strategy. Our firm champions actively managing tech positions rather than buy-and-hold.Our plan is to trim Nvidia Corporation stock at key levels and attempt to buy lower. This is due to valuation concerns, but also importantly, many AI stocks are trading at stretched valuations. We’ve stated publicly a few times that Nvidia is a buy on dips, implying investors who are patient will find entries at lower prices.Recommended Reading:Nvidia Stock: Blackwell Suppliers Shrug Off Delay Ahead Of Q2 EarningsArm Stock: Buy Its Customers, Not The StockBig Tech Battles On AI, Here’s The WinnerPalantir’s Stock is Priced for PerfectionEditor's Note: This article discusses one or more securities that do not trade on a major U.S. exchange. Please be aware of the risks associated with these stocks.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":207,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":345326518845784,"gmtCreate":1725336319270,"gmtModify":1725336322913,"author":{"id":"3574807189087941","authorId":"3574807189087941","name":"Icywinddale","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/3bd2fbf9d90e26b2f600b2c5d7c54244","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574807189087941","authorIdStr":"3574807189087941"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Tell something we don't know. waste of time.","listText":"Tell something we don't know. waste of time.","text":"Tell something we don't know. waste of time.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/345326518845784","repostId":"2464889067","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2464889067","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Dow Jones publishes the world’s most trusted business news and financial information in a variety of media.","home_visible":0,"media_name":"Dow Jones","id":"106","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99"},"pubTimestamp":1725327277,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2464889067?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2024-09-03 09:34","market":"nz","language":"en","title":"Stocks Typically Suffer in September. Why Markets Face More Pain This Year","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2464889067","media":"Dow Jones","summary":"\"Wake me up when September ends,\" sang the band Green Day -- and many investors will feel the tune was written for them.The ninth month of the year is notoriously unkind to markets, and 2024 could well follow the trend.September has consistently been a miserable time for U.S. stocks. Just check out the average monthly performance for the four main indexes -- the Dow Jones Industrial Average, the benchmark S&P 500, the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite, and the small-cap focused Russell 2000 -- since their inception:. September has also brought about its fair share of crashes, including the post-9/11 slump and the selloff triggered by the 2008-09 financial crisis -- although the data doesn't always look so bad in presidential election years.Bonds don't tend to offer much relief, either -- the iShares U.S. Treasury bond ETF, which trades under the ticker GOVT and tracks the broad U.S. government bond market, has also typically had its worst month in September:. The August jobs report due out o","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>&#34;Wake me up when September ends,&#34; sang the band Green Day -- and many investors will feel the tune was written for them.</p><p>The ninth month of the year is notoriously unkind to markets, and 2024 could well follow the trend.</p><p>September has consistently been a miserable time for U.S. stocks. Just check out the average monthly performance for the four main indexes -- the Dow Jones Industrial Average, the benchmark S&amp;P 500, the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite, and the small-cap focused Russell 2000 -- since their inception:</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/ea71f2ee6391abed9441f113f7056893\" tg-width=\"493\" tg-height=\"331\"/></p><p>September has also brought about its fair share of crashes, including the post-9/11 slump and the selloff triggered by the 2008-09 financial crisis -- although the data doesn&#39;t always look so bad in presidential election years.</p><p>Bonds don&#39;t tend to offer much relief, either -- the iShares U.S. Treasury bond ETF, which trades under the ticker GOVT and tracks the broad U.S. government bond market, has also typically had its worst month in September:</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/5c501d5f1a2104dd99369365fae1dcbe\" tg-width=\"484\" tg-height=\"331\"/></p><p>Plenty of analysts have tried to explain the September slump.</p><p>They argue traders are typically in a downbeat mood after returning from their summer vacations, and take the start of fall as an opportunity to reassess the state of their portfolios. It&#39;s also the time of year when firms start to think about their annual profit and loss statements, meaning there&#39;s more incentive to sell some better-performing holdings.</p><p>Conversely, investors are in a cheerful mood right now, with stocks coming off a strong August when a barrage of stronger-than-expected economic data eased worries about the health of the U.S. jobs market. The Federal Reserve is also expected to start cutting interest rates for the first time in four years when its next meeting concludes on Sept. 18, which could boost both stocks and bonds.</p><p>But that doesn&#39;t mean the market can just shrug off 100-plus years of history. There are plenty of reasons to believe this could be another gloomy September.</p><p>Nvidia&#39;s latest earnings are one potential red flag, according to ADM Investor Services Chief Economist Marc Ostwald. The chip maker beat the Street&#39;s top-line profit and revenue forecasts, but issued underwhelming sales guidance that has given investors reason to question how long the surge in demand for its artificial intelligence products can last.</p><p>Broader indexes have shaken off the disappointment so far -- but any further signs of a slowdown could raise questions about whether the AI-fueled rally has made the entire market overvalued.</p><p>&#34;I&#39;m really not convinced we can escape [a September slump] this year,&#34; Ostwald told Barron&#39;s in a recent interview. &#34;Nvidia&#39;s results show there are a lot of imbalances in the market ahead of the first Fed rate cut.&#34;</p><p>The August jobs report due out on Sept. 6 could also spark a selloff. Less than a month ago, stocks tumbled sharply after the nonfarm payrolls number for July came in lower than expected -- and more weak data would call into question the idea that the U.S. economy is headed for a so-called soft landing.</p><p>There are other likely sources of uncertainty -- including the looming presidential election showdown between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump, and the continuing threat that the crisis in the Middle East could spiral into a full-blown conflict featuring major oil producers Iran and Saudi Arabia.</p><p>Gold and the U.S. dollar -- two assets traditionally seen as havens -- haven&#39;t tended to perform so badly in September, and that could be the case again in 2024 if investors believe political factors at home and abroad will lead to a spike in volatility.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/6153dd8fbdeb986707daf9d392853da3\" tg-width=\"492\" tg-height=\"337\"/></p><p>So as summer ends, leaves start to fall, and the fantasy football season begins, don&#39;t be surprised if September serves up another stock market slump.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Stocks Typically Suffer in September. Why Markets Face More Pain This Year</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nStocks Typically Suffer in September. Why Markets Face More Pain This Year\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Dow Jones </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2024-09-03 09:34</p>\n</div>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>&#34;Wake me up when September ends,&#34; sang the band Green Day -- and many investors will feel the tune was written for them.</p><p>The ninth month of the year is notoriously unkind to markets, and 2024 could well follow the trend.</p><p>September has consistently been a miserable time for U.S. stocks. Just check out the average monthly performance for the four main indexes -- the Dow Jones Industrial Average, the benchmark S&amp;P 500, the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite, and the small-cap focused Russell 2000 -- since their inception:</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/ea71f2ee6391abed9441f113f7056893\" tg-width=\"493\" tg-height=\"331\"/></p><p>September has also brought about its fair share of crashes, including the post-9/11 slump and the selloff triggered by the 2008-09 financial crisis -- although the data doesn&#39;t always look so bad in presidential election years.</p><p>Bonds don&#39;t tend to offer much relief, either -- the iShares U.S. Treasury bond ETF, which trades under the ticker GOVT and tracks the broad U.S. government bond market, has also typically had its worst month in September:</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/5c501d5f1a2104dd99369365fae1dcbe\" tg-width=\"484\" tg-height=\"331\"/></p><p>Plenty of analysts have tried to explain the September slump.</p><p>They argue traders are typically in a downbeat mood after returning from their summer vacations, and take the start of fall as an opportunity to reassess the state of their portfolios. It&#39;s also the time of year when firms start to think about their annual profit and loss statements, meaning there&#39;s more incentive to sell some better-performing holdings.</p><p>Conversely, investors are in a cheerful mood right now, with stocks coming off a strong August when a barrage of stronger-than-expected economic data eased worries about the health of the U.S. jobs market. The Federal Reserve is also expected to start cutting interest rates for the first time in four years when its next meeting concludes on Sept. 18, which could boost both stocks and bonds.</p><p>But that doesn&#39;t mean the market can just shrug off 100-plus years of history. There are plenty of reasons to believe this could be another gloomy September.</p><p>Nvidia&#39;s latest earnings are one potential red flag, according to ADM Investor Services Chief Economist Marc Ostwald. The chip maker beat the Street&#39;s top-line profit and revenue forecasts, but issued underwhelming sales guidance that has given investors reason to question how long the surge in demand for its artificial intelligence products can last.</p><p>Broader indexes have shaken off the disappointment so far -- but any further signs of a slowdown could raise questions about whether the AI-fueled rally has made the entire market overvalued.</p><p>&#34;I&#39;m really not convinced we can escape [a September slump] this year,&#34; Ostwald told Barron&#39;s in a recent interview. &#34;Nvidia&#39;s results show there are a lot of imbalances in the market ahead of the first Fed rate cut.&#34;</p><p>The August jobs report due out on Sept. 6 could also spark a selloff. Less than a month ago, stocks tumbled sharply after the nonfarm payrolls number for July came in lower than expected -- and more weak data would call into question the idea that the U.S. economy is headed for a so-called soft landing.</p><p>There are other likely sources of uncertainty -- including the looming presidential election showdown between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump, and the continuing threat that the crisis in the Middle East could spiral into a full-blown conflict featuring major oil producers Iran and Saudi Arabia.</p><p>Gold and the U.S. dollar -- two assets traditionally seen as havens -- haven&#39;t tended to perform so badly in September, and that could be the case again in 2024 if investors believe political factors at home and abroad will lead to a spike in volatility.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/6153dd8fbdeb986707daf9d392853da3\" tg-width=\"492\" tg-height=\"337\"/></p><p>So as summer ends, leaves start to fall, and the fantasy football season begins, don&#39;t be surprised if September serves up another stock market slump.</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://dowjonesnews.com/newdjn/logon.aspx?AL=N","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2464889067","content_text":"\"Wake me up when September ends,\" sang the band Green Day -- and many investors will feel the tune was written for them.The ninth month of the year is notoriously unkind to markets, and 2024 could well follow the trend.September has consistently been a miserable time for U.S. stocks. Just check out the average monthly performance for the four main indexes -- the Dow Jones Industrial Average, the benchmark S&P 500, the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite, and the small-cap focused Russell 2000 -- since their inception:September has also brought about its fair share of crashes, including the post-9/11 slump and the selloff triggered by the 2008-09 financial crisis -- although the data doesn't always look so bad in presidential election years.Bonds don't tend to offer much relief, either -- the iShares U.S. Treasury bond ETF, which trades under the ticker GOVT and tracks the broad U.S. government bond market, has also typically had its worst month in September:Plenty of analysts have tried to explain the September slump.They argue traders are typically in a downbeat mood after returning from their summer vacations, and take the start of fall as an opportunity to reassess the state of their portfolios. It's also the time of year when firms start to think about their annual profit and loss statements, meaning there's more incentive to sell some better-performing holdings.Conversely, investors are in a cheerful mood right now, with stocks coming off a strong August when a barrage of stronger-than-expected economic data eased worries about the health of the U.S. jobs market. The Federal Reserve is also expected to start cutting interest rates for the first time in four years when its next meeting concludes on Sept. 18, which could boost both stocks and bonds.But that doesn't mean the market can just shrug off 100-plus years of history. There are plenty of reasons to believe this could be another gloomy September.Nvidia's latest earnings are one potential red flag, according to ADM Investor Services Chief Economist Marc Ostwald. The chip maker beat the Street's top-line profit and revenue forecasts, but issued underwhelming sales guidance that has given investors reason to question how long the surge in demand for its artificial intelligence products can last.Broader indexes have shaken off the disappointment so far -- but any further signs of a slowdown could raise questions about whether the AI-fueled rally has made the entire market overvalued.\"I'm really not convinced we can escape [a September slump] this year,\" Ostwald told Barron's in a recent interview. \"Nvidia's results show there are a lot of imbalances in the market ahead of the first Fed rate cut.\"The August jobs report due out on Sept. 6 could also spark a selloff. Less than a month ago, stocks tumbled sharply after the nonfarm payrolls number for July came in lower than expected -- and more weak data would call into question the idea that the U.S. economy is headed for a so-called soft landing.There are other likely sources of uncertainty -- including the looming presidential election showdown between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump, and the continuing threat that the crisis in the Middle East could spiral into a full-blown conflict featuring major oil producers Iran and Saudi Arabia.Gold and the U.S. dollar -- two assets traditionally seen as havens -- haven't tended to perform so badly in September, and that could be the case again in 2024 if investors believe political factors at home and abroad will lead to a spike in volatility.So as summer ends, leaves start to fall, and the fantasy football season begins, don't be surprised if September serves up another stock market slump.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":305,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":343990447882384,"gmtCreate":1725006664179,"gmtModify":1725006667888,"author":{"id":"3574807189087941","authorId":"3574807189087941","name":"Icywinddale","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/3bd2fbf9d90e26b2f600b2c5d7c54244","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574807189087941","authorIdStr":"3574807189087941"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[Weak]&nbsp; [Weak]&nbsp; [Weak]&nbsp;&nbsp;","listText":"[Weak]&nbsp; [Weak]&nbsp; [Weak]&nbsp;&nbsp;","text":"[Weak] [Weak] [Weak]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/343990447882384","repostId":"2463213734","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2463213734","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1724996367,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2463213734?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2024-08-30 13:39","market":"nz","language":"en","title":"Advanced Micro Devices: ZT Acquisition Is Bad News - Still Sell","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2463213734","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. announced its $4.9B acquisition of ZT Systems as a strategic move in the AI market, but we see things differently.We think AMD holds a higher risk profile after the acquis","content":"<html><head></head><body><ul style=\"\"><li><p>Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. announced its $4.9B acquisition of ZT Systems as a strategic move in the AI market, but we see things differently.</p></li><li><p>We think AMD holds a higher risk profile after the acquisition inflated AI-related growth expectations further with little fundamental basis.</p></li><li><p>We&#39;re also seeing multiple expansions for AMD, making the stock expensive relative to semi-peers and increasing the risk of a price correction.</p></li><li><p>Investor confidence in AMD&#39;s AI growth is misplaced; the acquisition will likely only delay a bigger (disappointing) confrontation between AMD&#39;s real AI capabilities and Wall Street&#39;s AI expectations.</p></li></ul><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/54d72c9c9a3e29350ec8e0b6945b60ae\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"304\"/></p><p>Sunny</p><p></p><p><strong>Advanced Micro Devices, Inc.</strong> (NASDAQ:AMD) announced its acquisition of ZT Systems, a privately held server builder, for $4.9B earlier this month. AMD CEO Lisa Su emphasized in an interview with Reuters that &#34;AI systems are our number one strategic priority.&#34; We maintain our sell rating on AMD and recommend investors trim on the mini rally created by the acquisition news.</p><p>The market is taking the acquisition as a positive for AMD in its uphill battle to compete with Wall Street&#39;s AI darling, NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA). We don&#39;t think this is the case. In fact, we think the acquisition actually further proves that our concerns about AMD have not been misplaced.</p><p>The devil is in the details, so let&#39;s discuss them.</p><p>The company announced news of its acquisition on August 19th, intending to close the $4.9B deal in mid-2025 by paying 75% in cash and the rest in stock in one of the biggest IT deals of the year. ZT generates around $10B in annual revenue, with the bulk of that coming from its manufacturing unit. AMD intends to sell that off once the deal is over, so as not to put itself in a position to compete with the likes of Super Micro Computer, Inc. (SMCI) and Dell Technologies Inc. (DELL).</p><p>With that in mind, this acquisition really comes down to AMD&#39;s access to ZT engineers to &#34;allow AMD to more quickly test and roll out its latest AI graphics processing units (GPUs) at the scale of cloud computing giants such as Microsoft.&#34; This doesn&#39;t seem too surprising considering the rumors about Microsoft&#39;s dissatisfaction with AMD&#39;s AI GPU products and software that began to stir earlier this year; AMD needs the help. ZT has around 2,5000 employees, of which AMD will keep 1,000 on hand. CEO Lisa Su further confirmed this rosy perspective of the acquisition, noting,</p><blockquote><p>&#34;ZT adds world-class systems design and rack-scale solutions expertise that will significantly strengthen our data center AI systems and customer enablement capabilities.&#34;</p></blockquote><p>At face value, AMD is paying $4.9B for a few hundred engineers.</p><p>We think this is a strategic move by AMD, but not for the reasons the market expects, i.e., not for the technological advantage ZT could provide but to mitigate high AI expectations. ZT is a customer of AMD, and, in turn, ZT is sitting on AMD AI GPU inventory that they cannot get off their hands. That would cause them to stop placing orders at the company and signal the weaker demand for AMD&#39;s products to the entire market. Why does ZT have AMD inventory that they cannot get rid of? Simply put customers are continuing to choose the industry go-to, Nvidia, over AMD since there is no more shortage.</p><p>Industry research confirms that lead times for Nvidia&#39;s H100 are now nonexistent. We believe this was a two-bird, one-stone strategic acquisition for AMD to buy ZT along with its inventory and simultaneously pitch it as a step forward in their seemingly losing race against NVDA. This is a win-win for AMD and ZT; AMD gets ahead of the bad news of the inventory pile-up that would visibly show AMD is lagging Wall Street&#39;s expectations, and ZT gets a bunch of inventory off its hands and $4.9B.</p><p>What&#39;s important to keep in mind here is that AMD is guiding AI GPU sales to exceed $4.5B this year, revised up from $4B this quarter but still substantially lower than whisper numbers expecting $6B in sales. This means AMD has big shoes to fill in terms of guidance. This acquisition makes it look like they&#39;re on track when it is only prolonging a disappointment until mid-next year because AMD will likely struggle to meet, let alone beat, whisper numbers.</p><p>The importance of whisper numbers in the AI game cannot be emphasized enough. Part of why NVDA&#39;s stock is dropping today is because the company only came in line with whisper numbers on July quarter sales and guidance reported in 2Q24 results. It achieved $30B in sales in line with whisper numbers for $30B and guiding for $32.5B, at the lower end range of the whisper numbers. We don&#39;t see a material upside surprise to consensus numbers for AMD&#39;s AI business this year. So, we continue to believe the stock&#39;s valuation and market expectations put it at a higher risk profile to underperform, even more so now after news of the acquisition.</p><h2 id=\"id_675990054\">Valuation &amp; Word on Wall Street</h2><p>In our opinion, AMD is unjustifiably expensive relative to the peer group. We&#39;ve seen multiple expansion for AMD on P/E and EV/Sales ratios since our last note, which was in early August. On a P/E basis, the stock is now trading at 42.9x C2024 compared to a previous ratio of 38.9x and a group average of 33.1x. Looking at the EV/Sales ratio, we see more of the same. The stock is trading at 9.4x EV/C2024 Sales compared to an old ratio of 8.2x and a group average of 7.7x.</p><p>The higher P/E and EV/Sales ratios over the past month showcase a couple of things. The biggest one is that AMD is becoming more expensive relative to its earnings and sales, as well as its historical and industry averages. This poses a big risk for AMD because an increase in these ratios without corresponding earnings/sales growth means the stock is overvalued. Thus, it is at risk of a price correction when AMD fails to show material upside to Wall Street&#39;s high AI expectations. We think investor confidence in AMD&#39;s future AI growth potential increased in light of the ZT acquisition, although there is little fundamental basis for this engineer acquisition boosting top-line growth. It&#39;s more of a band-aid solution to reignite investor faith in the company&#39;s growth trajectory as rival NVDA strides ahead.</p><p>The following chart outlines AMD&#39;s valuation against the peer group average.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/9e7f7a8672b56054338755fcd4ee354b\" tg-width=\"975\" tg-height=\"391\"/></p><p>TechStockPros</p><p></p><p>Wall Street&#39;s sentiment on AMD remains unchanged since our downgrade note earlier this month. Of the 50 analysts covering the stock, 41 are buy-rated, and the remaining are hold-rated. Interestingly, the potential upside from sell-side price targets is now lower than it was. The stock is priced at $144 per share with a median sell-side price target of $190 and a mean of $187 with a potential 28-30% upside.</p><p>The following charts outline AMD&#39;s sell-side ratings and price targets.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/a04d8542dce8de62e27e9bf1cc376641\" tg-width=\"491\" tg-height=\"273\"/></p><p>TechStockPros</p><p></p><h2 id=\"id_3652890362\">What to do with the stock</h2><p>We remain sell-rated on AMD and recommend investors count profits and exit the stock. Management is guiding for total sales in Q3 to grow 15% Q/Q to $6.7B, slightly beating consensus at $6.61B for the first time in five quarters. This is mainly supported by faster Q/Q growth in its data center sales on the MI300X AI GPU ramp. We think the market is getting ahead of itself with AI-related sales expectations for AMD, and the acquisition only made the hype worse.</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Advanced Micro Devices: ZT Acquisition Is Bad News - Still Sell</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAdvanced Micro Devices: ZT Acquisition Is Bad News - Still Sell\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-08-30 13:39 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4718002-advanced-micro-devices-zt-acquisition-is-bad-news-still-sell><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. announced its $4.9B acquisition of ZT Systems as a strategic move in the AI market, but we see things differently.We think AMD holds a higher risk profile after the ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4718002-advanced-micro-devices-zt-acquisition-is-bad-news-still-sell\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"IE000W1ABFV2.USD":"PIMCO BALANCED INCOME AND GROWTH \"R\" (USD) INC","LU0053671581.USD":"摩根大通美国小盘成长股 A(dist)","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","BK4504":"桥水持仓","BK4543":"AI","IE00B19Z9505.USD":"美盛-美国大盘成长股A Acc","IE00B3M56506.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN EMERGING MARKETS EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4503":"景林资产持仓","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","IE000KEQY171.SGD":"PIMCO BALANCED INCOME AND GROWTH \"M\" (SGDHDG) INC","BK4588":"碎股","BK4551":"寇图资本持仓","BK4529":"IDC概念","LU1951200564.SGD":"Natixis Thematics AI & Robotics Fund R/A SGD","IE00B19Z8W00.USD":"FTGF CLEARBRIDGE US LARGE CAP GROWTH \"A\" INC","IE00BKVL7J92.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - US Equity Sustainability Leaders A Acc USD","LU0889565833.HKD":"FRANKLIN TECHNOLOGY \"A\" (HKD) ACC","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","IE00B4JS1V06.HKD":"JANUS HENDERSON BALANCED \"A2\" (HKD) ACC","BK4587":"ChatGPT概念","LU1923623000.USD":"Natixis Thematics AI & Robotics Fund R/A USD","LU1316542783.SGD":"Janus Henderson Horizon Global Technology Leaders A2 SGD","IE0004086264.USD":"BNY MELLON GLOBAL OPPORTUNITIES \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4549":"软银资本持仓","LU1988902786.USD":"FULLERTON LUX FUNDS GLOBAL ABSOLUTE ALPHA \"I\" (USD) ACC","LU0079474960.USD":"联博美国增长基金A","LU0072462426.USD":"贝莱德全球配置 A2","LU0053666078.USD":"摩根大通基金-美国股票A（离岸）美元","LU0642271901.SGD":"Janus Henderson Horizon Global Technology Leaders A2 SGD-H","LU2360106780.USD":"BGF WORLD TECHNOLOGY \"A4\" (USD) INC","GB00BDT5M118.USD":"天利环球扩展Alpha基金A Acc","LU0823421333.USD":"BNP PARIBAS DISRUPTIVE TECHNOLOGY \"C\" (USD) ACC","LU0719512351.SGD":"JPMorgan Funds - US Technology A (acc) SGD","LU0056508442.USD":"贝莱德世界科技基金A2","LU0823421416.USD":"BNP PARIBAS DISRUPTIVE TECHNOLOGY \"C\" (USD) INC","LU1803068979.SGD":"FTIF - Franklin Technology A (acc) SGD-H1","IE00BZ199S13.USD":"BNY MELLON MOBILITY INNOVATION \"B\" (USD) ACC","GB00B4LPDJ14.GBP":"FUNDSMITH EQUITY \"R\" (GBP) ACC","IE00BJJMRY28.SGD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Inc SGD","IE00BJLML261.HKD":"HSBC GLOBAL EQUITY INDEX \"HCH\" (HKD) ACC","IE00BKDWB100.SGD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A5H\" (SGDHDG) ACC","BK4528":"SaaS概念","AMD":"美国超微公司"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4718002-advanced-micro-devices-zt-acquisition-is-bad-news-still-sell","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"2463213734","content_text":"Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. announced its $4.9B acquisition of ZT Systems as a strategic move in the AI market, but we see things differently.We think AMD holds a higher risk profile after the acquisition inflated AI-related growth expectations further with little fundamental basis.We're also seeing multiple expansions for AMD, making the stock expensive relative to semi-peers and increasing the risk of a price correction.Investor confidence in AMD's AI growth is misplaced; the acquisition will likely only delay a bigger (disappointing) confrontation between AMD's real AI capabilities and Wall Street's AI expectations.SunnyAdvanced Micro Devices, Inc. (NASDAQ:AMD) announced its acquisition of ZT Systems, a privately held server builder, for $4.9B earlier this month. AMD CEO Lisa Su emphasized in an interview with Reuters that \"AI systems are our number one strategic priority.\" We maintain our sell rating on AMD and recommend investors trim on the mini rally created by the acquisition news.The market is taking the acquisition as a positive for AMD in its uphill battle to compete with Wall Street's AI darling, NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA). We don't think this is the case. In fact, we think the acquisition actually further proves that our concerns about AMD have not been misplaced.The devil is in the details, so let's discuss them.The company announced news of its acquisition on August 19th, intending to close the $4.9B deal in mid-2025 by paying 75% in cash and the rest in stock in one of the biggest IT deals of the year. ZT generates around $10B in annual revenue, with the bulk of that coming from its manufacturing unit. AMD intends to sell that off once the deal is over, so as not to put itself in a position to compete with the likes of Super Micro Computer, Inc. (SMCI) and Dell Technologies Inc. (DELL).With that in mind, this acquisition really comes down to AMD's access to ZT engineers to \"allow AMD to more quickly test and roll out its latest AI graphics processing units (GPUs) at the scale of cloud computing giants such as Microsoft.\" This doesn't seem too surprising considering the rumors about Microsoft's dissatisfaction with AMD's AI GPU products and software that began to stir earlier this year; AMD needs the help. ZT has around 2,5000 employees, of which AMD will keep 1,000 on hand. CEO Lisa Su further confirmed this rosy perspective of the acquisition, noting,\"ZT adds world-class systems design and rack-scale solutions expertise that will significantly strengthen our data center AI systems and customer enablement capabilities.\"At face value, AMD is paying $4.9B for a few hundred engineers.We think this is a strategic move by AMD, but not for the reasons the market expects, i.e., not for the technological advantage ZT could provide but to mitigate high AI expectations. ZT is a customer of AMD, and, in turn, ZT is sitting on AMD AI GPU inventory that they cannot get off their hands. That would cause them to stop placing orders at the company and signal the weaker demand for AMD's products to the entire market. Why does ZT have AMD inventory that they cannot get rid of? Simply put customers are continuing to choose the industry go-to, Nvidia, over AMD since there is no more shortage.Industry research confirms that lead times for Nvidia's H100 are now nonexistent. We believe this was a two-bird, one-stone strategic acquisition for AMD to buy ZT along with its inventory and simultaneously pitch it as a step forward in their seemingly losing race against NVDA. This is a win-win for AMD and ZT; AMD gets ahead of the bad news of the inventory pile-up that would visibly show AMD is lagging Wall Street's expectations, and ZT gets a bunch of inventory off its hands and $4.9B.What's important to keep in mind here is that AMD is guiding AI GPU sales to exceed $4.5B this year, revised up from $4B this quarter but still substantially lower than whisper numbers expecting $6B in sales. This means AMD has big shoes to fill in terms of guidance. This acquisition makes it look like they're on track when it is only prolonging a disappointment until mid-next year because AMD will likely struggle to meet, let alone beat, whisper numbers.The importance of whisper numbers in the AI game cannot be emphasized enough. Part of why NVDA's stock is dropping today is because the company only came in line with whisper numbers on July quarter sales and guidance reported in 2Q24 results. It achieved $30B in sales in line with whisper numbers for $30B and guiding for $32.5B, at the lower end range of the whisper numbers. We don't see a material upside surprise to consensus numbers for AMD's AI business this year. So, we continue to believe the stock's valuation and market expectations put it at a higher risk profile to underperform, even more so now after news of the acquisition.Valuation & Word on Wall StreetIn our opinion, AMD is unjustifiably expensive relative to the peer group. We've seen multiple expansion for AMD on P/E and EV/Sales ratios since our last note, which was in early August. On a P/E basis, the stock is now trading at 42.9x C2024 compared to a previous ratio of 38.9x and a group average of 33.1x. Looking at the EV/Sales ratio, we see more of the same. The stock is trading at 9.4x EV/C2024 Sales compared to an old ratio of 8.2x and a group average of 7.7x.The higher P/E and EV/Sales ratios over the past month showcase a couple of things. The biggest one is that AMD is becoming more expensive relative to its earnings and sales, as well as its historical and industry averages. This poses a big risk for AMD because an increase in these ratios without corresponding earnings/sales growth means the stock is overvalued. Thus, it is at risk of a price correction when AMD fails to show material upside to Wall Street's high AI expectations. We think investor confidence in AMD's future AI growth potential increased in light of the ZT acquisition, although there is little fundamental basis for this engineer acquisition boosting top-line growth. It's more of a band-aid solution to reignite investor faith in the company's growth trajectory as rival NVDA strides ahead.The following chart outlines AMD's valuation against the peer group average.TechStockProsWall Street's sentiment on AMD remains unchanged since our downgrade note earlier this month. Of the 50 analysts covering the stock, 41 are buy-rated, and the remaining are hold-rated. Interestingly, the potential upside from sell-side price targets is now lower than it was. The stock is priced at $144 per share with a median sell-side price target of $190 and a mean of $187 with a potential 28-30% upside.The following charts outline AMD's sell-side ratings and price targets.TechStockProsWhat to do with the stockWe remain sell-rated on AMD and recommend investors count profits and exit the stock. Management is guiding for total sales in Q3 to grow 15% Q/Q to $6.7B, slightly beating consensus at $6.61B for the first time in five quarters. This is mainly supported by faster Q/Q growth in its data center sales on the MI300X AI GPU ramp. We think the market is getting ahead of itself with AI-related sales expectations for AMD, and the acquisition only made the hype worse.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":334,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":336533544542304,"gmtCreate":1723197597064,"gmtModify":1723197601225,"author":{"id":"3574807189087941","authorId":"3574807189087941","name":"Icywinddale","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/3bd2fbf9d90e26b2f600b2c5d7c54244","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574807189087941","authorIdStr":"3574807189087941"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nonsense&nbsp;","listText":"Nonsense&nbsp;","text":"Nonsense","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/336533544542304","repostId":"1158112570","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1158112570","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1723195800,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1158112570?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2024-08-09 17:30","market":"us","language":"en","title":"BofA’s Hartnett Says Market Selloff Yet to Breach Key Levels","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1158112570","media":"Bloomberg","summary":"Sees slump if stock winners fall below 200-day moving averageAI leaders to falter in second half unless profits shine: BofAMichael HartnettThe turbulence in global financial markets has yet to reach p","content":"<html><head></head><body><ul style=\"\"><li><p>Sees slump if stock winners fall below 200-day moving average</p></li><li><p>AI leaders to falter in second half unless profits shine: BofA</p></li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/8159f2bca744eb7c21c6e471059386d8\" alt=\"Michael Hartnett\" title=\"Michael Hartnett\" tg-width=\"2000\" tg-height=\"1334\"/><span>Michael Hartnett</span></p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">The turbulence in global financial markets has yet to reach proportions that would signal worries about a hard economic landing, according to Bank of America Corp.’s Michael Hartnett.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Even as the S&amp;P 500 Index dropped about 6% since its mid-July record high, the benchmark has held above its 200-day moving average around 5,050 points, while the yield on the US 30-year Treasury note hasn’t fallen below 4%.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">“Technical levels that would flip Wall Street’s narrative from soft to hard landing have not been broken,” Hartnett wrote in a note. “Investor feedback is ‘frazzled’,” but expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts mean that preference for stocks over bonds hasn’t been ended by the market rout, he added.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/98ea5842f8309306d1b967e1182b1628\" alt=\"\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1200\" tg-height=\"675\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Global markets have been jolted in the past month as investors have worried that the Fed has been too slow to cut interest rates in time to avert a recession. Still, the S&amp;P 500 rebounded after a report Thursday showed a slower-than-feared cooling in the labor market. The index is now down only 0.5% on the week.</p><p>Hartnett — who has taken a more neutral tone on stocks this year after remaining bearish through a rally in 2023 — said the next technical levels to watch would be the 200-day moving averages for the Philadelphia Stock Exchange Semiconductor Index as well as an exchange-traded fund tracking big tech.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">They’re currently hovering just above those levels, but a renewed slide would mean the next support for the S&amp;P 500 would kick in at the highs of 2021 — implying a drop of another 10% for the benchmark, the strategist said.</p><p>Hartnett also reiterated his view that investors should sell into the Fed’s first rate cut. He expects winners of the artificial intelligence trade to “wallow” in the second half until earnings pick up.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Instead, he highlighted opportunities in assets that were “strangled by 5% yields and can breathe more easily with yields at 3%-4%,” including government bonds, REITs, small-cap stocks and some distressed emerging markets like Brazil.</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1584095487587","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>BofA’s Hartnett Says Market Selloff Yet to Breach Key Levels</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBofA’s Hartnett Says Market Selloff Yet to Breach Key Levels\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-08-09 17:30 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-08-09/bofa-s-hartnett-says-market-selloff-yet-to-breach-key-levels?srnd=homepage-americas><strong>Bloomberg</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Sees slump if stock winners fall below 200-day moving averageAI leaders to falter in second half unless profits shine: BofAMichael HartnettThe turbulence in global financial markets has yet to reach ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-08-09/bofa-s-hartnett-says-market-selloff-yet-to-breach-key-levels?srnd=homepage-americas\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-08-09/bofa-s-hartnett-says-market-selloff-yet-to-breach-key-levels?srnd=homepage-americas","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1158112570","content_text":"Sees slump if stock winners fall below 200-day moving averageAI leaders to falter in second half unless profits shine: BofAMichael HartnettThe turbulence in global financial markets has yet to reach proportions that would signal worries about a hard economic landing, according to Bank of America Corp.’s Michael Hartnett.Even as the S&P 500 Index dropped about 6% since its mid-July record high, the benchmark has held above its 200-day moving average around 5,050 points, while the yield on the US 30-year Treasury note hasn’t fallen below 4%.“Technical levels that would flip Wall Street’s narrative from soft to hard landing have not been broken,” Hartnett wrote in a note. “Investor feedback is ‘frazzled’,” but expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts mean that preference for stocks over bonds hasn’t been ended by the market rout, he added.Global markets have been jolted in the past month as investors have worried that the Fed has been too slow to cut interest rates in time to avert a recession. Still, the S&P 500 rebounded after a report Thursday showed a slower-than-feared cooling in the labor market. The index is now down only 0.5% on the week.Hartnett — who has taken a more neutral tone on stocks this year after remaining bearish through a rally in 2023 — said the next technical levels to watch would be the 200-day moving averages for the Philadelphia Stock Exchange Semiconductor Index as well as an exchange-traded fund tracking big tech.They’re currently hovering just above those levels, but a renewed slide would mean the next support for the S&P 500 would kick in at the highs of 2021 — implying a drop of another 10% for the benchmark, the strategist said.Hartnett also reiterated his view that investors should sell into the Fed’s first rate cut. He expects winners of the artificial intelligence trade to “wallow” in the second half until earnings pick up.Instead, he highlighted opportunities in assets that were “strangled by 5% yields and can breathe more easily with yields at 3%-4%,” including government bonds, REITs, small-cap stocks and some distressed emerging markets like Brazil.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":326,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":9098656424,"gmtCreate":1644120172943,"gmtModify":1676533892418,"author":{"id":"3574807189087941","authorId":"3574807189087941","name":"Icywinddale","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/3bd2fbf9d90e26b2f600b2c5d7c54244","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574807189087941","authorIdStr":"3574807189087941"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"No brain.. take a look at PYPL price. fall like stone.&nbsp;","listText":"No brain.. take a look at PYPL price. fall like stone.&nbsp;","text":"No brain.. take a look at PYPL price. fall like stone.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9098656424","repostId":"2208317024","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2208317024","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1644039774,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2208317024?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-02-05 13:42","market":"us","language":"en","title":"3 No-Brainer Stocks to Buy With $1,000 Right Now","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2208317024","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"These outstanding companies have the potential to generate market-crushing returns.","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>The <b>S&amp;P 500</b> has had a cold start to the new year, down 6% in the month of January. This situation might be scaring investors out of the market entirely, as the downward trend could continue with uncertainty about inflation, the Fed&#39;s pending rate hikes, and the ongoing pandemic adding to the worries. </p><p>But if you&#39;re an investor with a long time horizon, like me, then now could be the perfect time to add fresh capital to your portfolio. When the market seems overly pessimistic and full of fear is usually the best time to be aggressive. </p><p>With $1,000 to invest, look no further than <b>Lululemon</b> (NASDAQ:LULU), <b>Netflix</b> (NASDAQ:NFLX), and <b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PYPL\">PayPal</a></b> (NASDAQ:PYPL) as worthy additions to your portfolio. </p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/49376da1d2e252d0075d0ae47df63c83\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"466\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Image source: Getty Images.</span></p><h2>1. Lululemon </h2><p>Since February 2017, Lululemon&#39;s stock has soared 390%, an outstanding investment if you got in at that time. This performance can be attributed to Lululemon&#39;s impressive sales and profit growth of 166% and 175%, respectively, over the past five years. Expanding the store footprint, now at 552 locations, also helped. </p><p>This burgeoning apparel brand sports a better gross margin, at 57.2%, than industry leader <b>Nike</b>. A higher metric generally indicates customers&#39; propensity to pay premium prices for a company&#39;s products. In Lululemon&#39;s case, having a strong direct-to-consumer presence -- a channel that represented 40% of sales in the most recent quarter -- is crucial for brand relevance. </p><p>The business first gained popularity as a seller of yoga pants to women, but it has now become a major men&#39;s outfitter. The men&#39;s segment increased revenue 44% year over year in the fiscal 2021 third quarter, while the women&#39;s segment grew 25%. Diversification of revenue sources is a positive sign. </p><p>Lululemon shares have lost 30% in value over the past three months as the threat of higher interest rates negatively impacts high-multiple, high-growth stocks. Consequently, investors are presented with a great opportunity to buy shares in this thriving retailer at a meaningful pullback. </p><h2>2. Netflix </h2><p>This top streaming stock reported fourth-quarter 2021 financial results on Jan. 20 that disappointed investors. Management guided to 2.5 million net new subscribers in the current quarter, far less than the 6.9 million Wall Street was expecting. But despite the stock being down 17% since that announcement, Netflix has been a massive winner, rising 200% over the past five years. </p><p>Quarterly membership growth has certainly been irregular and unpredictable after the pandemic started in the spring of 2020, but the secular shift away from traditional cable TV and toward streaming is not going away. According to data from <b>S&amp;P Global</b>, there were 1.1 billion households worldwide with a cable TV subscription in 2020. This means that Netflix, with its 221.8 million customers today, still has a large runway for expansion in the years ahead.  </p><p>Billionaire hedge fund manager Bill Ackman, through his firm Pershing Square Capital Management, took advantage of the market souring on Netflix by scooping up 3.1 million shares. His firm is now a top-20 shareholder in the company. Ackman has a proven track record of pouncing on attractive investment opportunities when the time is right. That&#39;s a great endorsement for why you might want to consider owning Netflix stock as well.  </p><h2>3. PayPal</h2><p>Another major historical winner is fintech behemoth PayPal. Its stock has climbed 379% since the business was spun off from <b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EBAY\">eBay</a></b> in July 2015. PayPal has long been a pioneer in the digital payments space, and it now counts an impressive 426 million active accounts, of which 34 million are merchants. </p><p>I think there are three main factors that make PayPal a special business. For starters, the company&#39;s brand exemplifies a relentless focus on security and ease of use. These characteristics, along with massive scale to the tune of $1.25 trillion in total payment volume in 2021, are probably why e-commerce giant <b>Amazon</b> chose to partner with PayPal&#39;s Venmo starting this year. </p><p>Additionally, PayPal possesses remarkable financial metrics. In 2021, the company&#39;s non-generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP) operating margin of 24.8% was stellar. And the business continued to prove that it&#39;s a cash machine, generating $5.4 billion in free cash flow during the 12-month period. </p><p>Lastly, the company is not done growing. Along with the Amazon partnership, initiatives to bolster the PayPal mobile app and an acquisition like that of Japanese buy now, pay later specialist Paidy showcase management&#39;s huge ambition to one day have 1 billion daily active users. </p><p>PayPal&#39;s shares are off more than 50% from their recent high set in July 2021. The stock currently trades for a lower and more attractive price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of below 40, making it a solid investment right now. </p></body></html>","source":"fool_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>3 No-Brainer Stocks to Buy With $1,000 Right Now</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n3 No-Brainer Stocks to Buy With $1,000 Right Now\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-02-05 13:42 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/02/04/3-no-brainer-stocks-to-buy-with-1000-right-now/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>The S&P 500 has had a cold start to the new year, down 6% in the month of January. This situation might be scaring investors out of the market entirely, as the downward trend could continue with ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/02/04/3-no-brainer-stocks-to-buy-with-1000-right-now/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","BK4106":"数据处理与外包服务","BK4532":"文艺复兴科技持仓","BK4554":"元宇宙及AR概念","NFLX":"奈飞","BK4108":"电影和娱乐","BK4507":"流媒体概念","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","PYPL":"PayPal","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","BK4566":"资本集团","BK4524":"宅经济概念","BK4535":"淡马锡持仓","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","BK4538":"云计算","AMZN":"亚马逊","BK4527":"明星科技股","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","LULU":"lululemon athletica","BK4503":"景林资产持仓","BK4122":"互联网与直销零售","BK4551":"寇图资本持仓","BK4561":"索罗斯持仓","BK4504":"桥水持仓","BK4202":"服装、服饰与奢侈品"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/02/04/3-no-brainer-stocks-to-buy-with-1000-right-now/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2208317024","content_text":"The S&P 500 has had a cold start to the new year, down 6% in the month of January. This situation might be scaring investors out of the market entirely, as the downward trend could continue with uncertainty about inflation, the Fed's pending rate hikes, and the ongoing pandemic adding to the worries. But if you're an investor with a long time horizon, like me, then now could be the perfect time to add fresh capital to your portfolio. When the market seems overly pessimistic and full of fear is usually the best time to be aggressive. With $1,000 to invest, look no further than Lululemon (NASDAQ:LULU), Netflix (NASDAQ:NFLX), and PayPal (NASDAQ:PYPL) as worthy additions to your portfolio. Image source: Getty Images.1. Lululemon Since February 2017, Lululemon's stock has soared 390%, an outstanding investment if you got in at that time. This performance can be attributed to Lululemon's impressive sales and profit growth of 166% and 175%, respectively, over the past five years. Expanding the store footprint, now at 552 locations, also helped. This burgeoning apparel brand sports a better gross margin, at 57.2%, than industry leader Nike. A higher metric generally indicates customers' propensity to pay premium prices for a company's products. In Lululemon's case, having a strong direct-to-consumer presence -- a channel that represented 40% of sales in the most recent quarter -- is crucial for brand relevance. The business first gained popularity as a seller of yoga pants to women, but it has now become a major men's outfitter. The men's segment increased revenue 44% year over year in the fiscal 2021 third quarter, while the women's segment grew 25%. Diversification of revenue sources is a positive sign. Lululemon shares have lost 30% in value over the past three months as the threat of higher interest rates negatively impacts high-multiple, high-growth stocks. Consequently, investors are presented with a great opportunity to buy shares in this thriving retailer at a meaningful pullback. 2. Netflix This top streaming stock reported fourth-quarter 2021 financial results on Jan. 20 that disappointed investors. Management guided to 2.5 million net new subscribers in the current quarter, far less than the 6.9 million Wall Street was expecting. But despite the stock being down 17% since that announcement, Netflix has been a massive winner, rising 200% over the past five years. Quarterly membership growth has certainly been irregular and unpredictable after the pandemic started in the spring of 2020, but the secular shift away from traditional cable TV and toward streaming is not going away. According to data from S&P Global, there were 1.1 billion households worldwide with a cable TV subscription in 2020. This means that Netflix, with its 221.8 million customers today, still has a large runway for expansion in the years ahead.  Billionaire hedge fund manager Bill Ackman, through his firm Pershing Square Capital Management, took advantage of the market souring on Netflix by scooping up 3.1 million shares. His firm is now a top-20 shareholder in the company. Ackman has a proven track record of pouncing on attractive investment opportunities when the time is right. That's a great endorsement for why you might want to consider owning Netflix stock as well.  3. PayPalAnother major historical winner is fintech behemoth PayPal. Its stock has climbed 379% since the business was spun off from eBay in July 2015. PayPal has long been a pioneer in the digital payments space, and it now counts an impressive 426 million active accounts, of which 34 million are merchants. I think there are three main factors that make PayPal a special business. For starters, the company's brand exemplifies a relentless focus on security and ease of use. These characteristics, along with massive scale to the tune of $1.25 trillion in total payment volume in 2021, are probably why e-commerce giant Amazon chose to partner with PayPal's Venmo starting this year. Additionally, PayPal possesses remarkable financial metrics. In 2021, the company's non-generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP) operating margin of 24.8% was stellar. And the business continued to prove that it's a cash machine, generating $5.4 billion in free cash flow during the 12-month period. Lastly, the company is not done growing. Along with the Amazon partnership, initiatives to bolster the PayPal mobile app and an acquisition like that of Japanese buy now, pay later specialist Paidy showcase management's huge ambition to one day have 1 billion daily active users. PayPal's shares are off more than 50% from their recent high set in July 2021. The stock currently trades for a lower and more attractive price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of below 40, making it a solid investment right now.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":308,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3479274806242608","authorId":"3479274806242608","name":"wubbix","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d0164ea7c27dfdf8c987c88fa9aebdea","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3479274806242608","authorIdStr":"3479274806242608"},"content":"Don't worry, PYPL has a promising future.","text":"Don't worry, PYPL has a promising future.","html":"Don't worry, PYPL has a promising future."}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":319460476612744,"gmtCreate":1719022223164,"gmtModify":1719024673775,"author":{"id":"3574807189087941","authorId":"3574807189087941","name":"Icywinddale","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/3bd2fbf9d90e26b2f600b2c5d7c54244","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574807189087941","authorIdStr":"3574807189087941"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[Weak]&nbsp;[Weak]&nbsp;&nbsp;","listText":"[Weak]&nbsp;[Weak]&nbsp;&nbsp;","text":"[Weak] [Weak]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/319460476612744","repostId":"2445075366","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2445075366","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1719023400,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2445075366?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2024-06-22 10:30","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Nvidia Stock Price Outlook: Will NVDA Suffer a Dot-Com Bubble Type Disaster?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2445075366","media":"InvestorPlace","summary":"Although Nvidia has been all the hype, maybe now is time to take a step back and reconsider investment into the stock.","content":"<html><head></head><body><ul style=\"\"><li><p><strong>Nvidia Corp </strong>(<strong>NVDA</strong>) has seen an impressive performance with 155.58% upside year-to-date with solid financials.</p></li><li><p>AI boom is comparable to the dot-com bubble concerning Nvidia.</p></li><li><p>Nvidia’s stock trades are higher than its peers, and the company faces strong competitive pressure.</p></li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/476de51cd5cfc273151e9a63b9d311d8\" alt=\"Source: Sergio Photone / Shutterstock.com\" title=\"Source: Sergio Photone / Shutterstock.com\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"432\"/><span>Source: Sergio Photone / Shutterstock.com</span></p><p><strong>Nvidia’s </strong>(NASDAQ:<strong>NVDA</strong>) current 10-for-1 stock split has gained investor’s attention because it makes the Nvidia stock more accessible to small investors.</p><p>Overall, Nvidia’s performance has been awe-inspiring, with an 155.58% upside year-to-date. The company dominates the competition with an 80% market share for AI chips. Still, its stock price is at an all-time high again, which begs whether its valuation is sound. </p><h2 id=\"id_1243175279\">Nvidia Stock Q1 Success</h2><p>Nvidia experienced substantial growth across the year. The company’s current financial reports for the first quarter of fiscal 2025 show a significant increase in revenue to $26.04 billion, up 262% year over year.</p><p>The gross margin also improved to 78.4% from 64.6% in the same quarter last year. Nvidia’s earnings per share for the first quarter of fiscal 2025 were $6.12, which is 416% up YOY. </p><h2 id=\"id_3583760166\">AI Might Be Overhyped </h2><p>Nvidia’s financial success seems to justify the hype in its stock. However, this might not be the case when we consider the AI market as a whole. About $50 billion has been invested in Nvidia’s chips, but AI startups have only generated around $3 billion in sales. </p><p><em>The Wall Street Journal </em>interviewed John Chambers, the CEO of <strong>Cisco Systems</strong> (NASDAQ:<strong>CSCO</strong>) during the dot-com bubble. He draws some parallels between Cisco then and Nvidia right now.</p><p>Both companies had a dominant market share in a large new market while benefiting from large investments from the industry before it was profitable. Cisco’s stock today trades at around $47, never recovering from its peak of $77 in 2000. </p><h2 id=\"id_2206758967\">Competitive Risks Are Prevalent</h2><p>Nvidia faces fierce competition in the semiconductor production industry, with the major two being <strong>Intel </strong>(NASDAQ:<strong>INTC</strong>)<strong> </strong>and <strong>Advanced Micro Devices </strong>(NASDAQ:<strong>AMD</strong>).</p><p>China’s development of its semiconductors could threaten Nvidia’s position internationally. China has long relied on foreign companies for semiconductors like Nvidia, but it plans to produce 70% of its domestic chip use by 2025.</p><p>Cheap Chinese chips could flood the international markets like its EVs, disrupting pricing for everyone in the industry. </p><h2 id=\"id_873566403\">Nvidia’s Valuation Is a Gamble </h2><p>Even though Cisco’s stock price never recovered, that didn’t mean it wasn’t a good company. Today, it still has around 41% of the market share and generates over $12 billion a year in revenue.</p><p>Similarly, Nvidia doesn’t have to be a bad company for its stock to be overvalued and for investors to never make their money back for many years. </p><p>Analysts have an average price target of $124.14, below its current trading price as of writing. This shows that the market is doubting Nvidia as it continues to break all-time highs seriously.</p><p>The higher the stock price, the more investors will sell off to take home their profits. </p><p>It’s currently trading at a trailing Price-to-sales (P/E) ratio of 79.29x and a forward P/E of 52.08x, which accounts for the estimated earnings increase next year.</p><p>Even so, if we compile the trailing P/E ratio for all the stocks in the Magnificent 7 — a list of tech conglomerates that many already consider overvalued — we get an average P/E ratio of 48.31x. Many of these companies are poised to ride the AI wave but still at a much lower valuation. </p><h2 id=\"id_674521919\">Great Company, Lousy Stock </h2><p>Nvidia’s stock price has done exceptionally well. It’s financials, no doubt, back that story.</p><p>However, great companies don’t necessarily mean outstanding stock. It took the Nasdaq-100 15 years to recover from the bubble despite many of those stocks being household names today.</p><p>The growth of the AI industry is legitimate, but Nvidia isn’t the only way you can invest in it.</p></body></html>","source":"investorplace_stock_picks","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Nvidia Stock Price Outlook: Will NVDA Suffer a Dot-Com Bubble Type Disaster?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNvidia Stock Price Outlook: Will NVDA Suffer a Dot-Com Bubble Type Disaster?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-06-22 10:30 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://investorplace.com/2024/06/nvidia-stock-price-outlook-will-nvda-suffer-a-dot-com-bubble-type-disaster/><strong>InvestorPlace</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Nvidia Corp (NVDA) has seen an impressive performance with 155.58% upside year-to-date with solid financials.AI boom is comparable to the dot-com bubble concerning Nvidia.Nvidia’s stock trades are ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://investorplace.com/2024/06/nvidia-stock-price-outlook-will-nvda-suffer-a-dot-com-bubble-type-disaster/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"IE00BSNM7G36.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN SYSTEMATIC GLOBAL SUSTAINABLE VALUE \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE00BMPRXN33.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN 5G CONNECTIVITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0234572021.USD":"高盛美国核心股票组合Acc","LU0109392836.USD":"富兰克林科技股A","IE0004445015.USD":"JANUS HENDERSON BALANCED \"A2\" (USD) ACC","LU1242518931.SGD":"Fullerton Lux Funds - Asia Absolute Alpha A Acc SGD","IE00BWXC8680.SGD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A5\" (SGD) ACC","LU0097036916.USD":"贝莱德美国增长A2 USD","NVDA":"英伟达","LU0979878070.USD":"FULLERTON LUX FUNDS - ASIA ABSOLUTE ALPHA \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0320765059.SGD":"FTIF - Franklin US Opportunities A Acc SGD","LU1852331112.SGD":"Blackrock World Technology Fund A2 SGD-H","IE00B3M56506.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN EMERGING MARKETS EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU1059921491.USD":"NORDEA 1 GLOBAL STABLE EQUITY \"HB\" (USDHDG) ACC","LU0198837287.USD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY SICAV - USA GROWTH \"P\" (USD) ACC","LU1244550221.USD":"FRANKLIN GLOBAL MULTI-ASSET  INCOME \"A\" (USDHEDGED) INC (M)","LU0276348264.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) GLOBAL DYNAMIC REAL RETURN\"AUP\" (USD) INC","LU1064131342.USD":"Fullerton Lux Funds - Global Absolute Alpha A Acc USD","SG9999001440.SGD":"United Global Dividend Equity Fund A SGD Dist","LU0731783394.SGD":"Fidelity Global Dividend A-MINCOME(G)-SGD","LU1244550494.USD":"FRANKLIN GLOBAL MULTI-ASSET INCOME \"A\" (USDHEDGED) ACC","LU0256863811.USD":"ALLIANZ US EQUITY \"A\" INC","LU0289739343.SGD":"SUSTAINABLE GLOBAL THEMATIC PORTFOLIO \"A\" (SGD) ACC","IE00BFSS7M15.SGD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Acc SGD-H","LU0234570918.USD":"高盛全球核心股票组合Acc Close","IE0034235295.USD":"PINEBRIDGE GLOBAL DYNAMIC ASSET ALLOCATION \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0417517546.SGD":"Allianz US Equity Cl AT Acc SGD","IE00BMPRXR70.SGD":"Neuberger Berman 5G Connectivity A Acc SGD-H","IE00BJJMRX11.SGD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Acc SGD","LU0079474960.USD":"联博美国增长基金A","IE00BDCRKT87.USD":"PINEBRIDGE GLOBAL DYNAMIC ASSET ALLOCATION \"ADC\" (USD) INC","LU0889565833.HKD":"FRANKLIN TECHNOLOGY \"A\" (HKD) ACC","LU0719512351.SGD":"JPMorgan Funds - US Technology A (acc) SGD","LU0080751232.USD":"富达环球多元动力基金A","LU0353189680.USD":"富国美国全盘成长基金Cl A Acc","LU1242518857.USD":"FULLERTON LUX FUNDS - ASIA ABSOLUTE ALPHA \"I\" (USD) ACC","IE00BJJMRY28.SGD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Inc SGD","LU0321505868.SGD":"Schroder ISF Global Dividend Maximiser A Dis SGD"},"source_url":"https://investorplace.com/2024/06/nvidia-stock-price-outlook-will-nvda-suffer-a-dot-com-bubble-type-disaster/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2445075366","content_text":"Nvidia Corp (NVDA) has seen an impressive performance with 155.58% upside year-to-date with solid financials.AI boom is comparable to the dot-com bubble concerning Nvidia.Nvidia’s stock trades are higher than its peers, and the company faces strong competitive pressure.Source: Sergio Photone / Shutterstock.comNvidia’s (NASDAQ:NVDA) current 10-for-1 stock split has gained investor’s attention because it makes the Nvidia stock more accessible to small investors.Overall, Nvidia’s performance has been awe-inspiring, with an 155.58% upside year-to-date. The company dominates the competition with an 80% market share for AI chips. Still, its stock price is at an all-time high again, which begs whether its valuation is sound. Nvidia Stock Q1 SuccessNvidia experienced substantial growth across the year. The company’s current financial reports for the first quarter of fiscal 2025 show a significant increase in revenue to $26.04 billion, up 262% year over year.The gross margin also improved to 78.4% from 64.6% in the same quarter last year. Nvidia’s earnings per share for the first quarter of fiscal 2025 were $6.12, which is 416% up YOY. AI Might Be Overhyped Nvidia’s financial success seems to justify the hype in its stock. However, this might not be the case when we consider the AI market as a whole. About $50 billion has been invested in Nvidia’s chips, but AI startups have only generated around $3 billion in sales. The Wall Street Journal interviewed John Chambers, the CEO of Cisco Systems (NASDAQ:CSCO) during the dot-com bubble. He draws some parallels between Cisco then and Nvidia right now.Both companies had a dominant market share in a large new market while benefiting from large investments from the industry before it was profitable. Cisco’s stock today trades at around $47, never recovering from its peak of $77 in 2000. Competitive Risks Are PrevalentNvidia faces fierce competition in the semiconductor production industry, with the major two being Intel (NASDAQ:INTC) and Advanced Micro Devices (NASDAQ:AMD).China’s development of its semiconductors could threaten Nvidia’s position internationally. China has long relied on foreign companies for semiconductors like Nvidia, but it plans to produce 70% of its domestic chip use by 2025.Cheap Chinese chips could flood the international markets like its EVs, disrupting pricing for everyone in the industry. Nvidia’s Valuation Is a Gamble Even though Cisco’s stock price never recovered, that didn’t mean it wasn’t a good company. Today, it still has around 41% of the market share and generates over $12 billion a year in revenue.Similarly, Nvidia doesn’t have to be a bad company for its stock to be overvalued and for investors to never make their money back for many years. Analysts have an average price target of $124.14, below its current trading price as of writing. This shows that the market is doubting Nvidia as it continues to break all-time highs seriously.The higher the stock price, the more investors will sell off to take home their profits. It’s currently trading at a trailing Price-to-sales (P/E) ratio of 79.29x and a forward P/E of 52.08x, which accounts for the estimated earnings increase next year.Even so, if we compile the trailing P/E ratio for all the stocks in the Magnificent 7 — a list of tech conglomerates that many already consider overvalued — we get an average P/E ratio of 48.31x. Many of these companies are poised to ride the AI wave but still at a much lower valuation. Great Company, Lousy Stock Nvidia’s stock price has done exceptionally well. It’s financials, no doubt, back that story.However, great companies don’t necessarily mean outstanding stock. It took the Nasdaq-100 15 years to recover from the bubble despite many of those stocks being household names today.The growth of the AI industry is legitimate, but Nvidia isn’t the only way you can invest in it.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":344,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":391820958122160,"gmtCreate":1736665464954,"gmtModify":1736667246789,"author":{"id":"3574807189087941","authorId":"3574807189087941","name":"Icywinddale","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/3bd2fbf9d90e26b2f600b2c5d7c54244","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574807189087941","authorIdStr":"3574807189087941"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Bull shit","listText":"Bull shit","text":"Bull shit","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/391820958122160","repostId":"1162107727","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1162107727","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1736647249,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1162107727?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2025-01-12 10:00","market":"us","language":"en","title":"4 Underappreciated Risks Facing Nvidia Bulls","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1162107727","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryHeavy reliance on a few mega-cap tech companies poses a significant risk to Nvidia Corporation sales should investors begin to demand capital discipline from these companies.The surge in Nvidia","content":"<html><head></head><body><h2 id=\"id_1684018099\">Summary</h2><ul style=\"\"><li><p>Heavy reliance on a few mega-cap tech companies poses a significant risk to Nvidia Corporation sales should investors begin to demand capital discipline from these companies.</p></li><li><p>The surge in Nvidia&#39;s accounts receivable will act as a headwind to sales, as their customers already owe the company significant amounts of cash.</p></li><li><p>Widespread optimism among analysts and options traders poses a risk to valuation multiples should the bullish trend reverse.</p></li><li><p>The failure of the stock to reach new highs recently, combined with recent bearish price action, suggests a potential significant trend change could be afoot.</p></li></ul><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/6144f6f01bec9d39bca22c82ac595a7e\" alt=\"Nvidia Corporation building in Taipei, Taiwan.\" title=\"Nvidia Corporation building in Taipei, Taiwan.\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"500\"/><span>Nvidia Corporation building in Taipei, Taiwan.</span></p><p></p><p><strong>BING-JHEN HONG</strong></p><p></p><p>The bullish case for <strong>Nvidia Corporation</strong> (NASDAQ:NVDA) rests on the continuation of the company&#39;s blockbuster earnings growth, which many believe will allow the stock to grow into its elevated valuation multiples. However, I see four underappreciated risks facing the company over the next 12 months. The first is that the decline in profitability of Nvidia&#39;s main customers causes a sharp stock price decline and a shift towards capital discipline. Second is the extreme rise in Nvidia&#39;s accounts receivable, which may act as a headwind to future sales growth. Third is the extreme levels of optimism among analysts and options markets regarding the stock&#39;s outlook. Fourth is the failure of the stock price to rise to new highs despite this widespread optimism. Taken together, I maintain my strong sell rating on the stock and remain short.</p><h2 id=\"id_3090282346\">1) Declining Profitability Of Nvidia&#39;s Main Customers</h2><p>It could well be the case that a large share of Nvidia&#39;s earnings will turn out to reflect malinvestment resulting from the excessive spending among mega-cap tech stocks that has been enabled by the surge in their share prices. It has been estimated that as much as half of Nvidia&#39;s sales come from just four companies, namely Microsoft (MSFT), Meta Platforms (META) Amazon (AMZN), and Alphabet (GOOGL), while Tesla (TSLA) is also thought to be a significant customer. This may appear to be a positive thing, as these companies on the whole are highly stable and growing strongly. However, this level of concentration is troubling for several reasons.</p><p>One risk that has been well documented is that the major cloud computing customers reduce their reliance on Nvidia&#39;s chips via their own in-house AI chip development efforts. However, a less well-documented risk comes from a potential collapse in AI industry capex if the valuation bubble in mega-cap tech stocks bursts, leading to a shift towards capital discipline.</p><p>Over the past year, MSFT, META, GOOGL, AMZN, and TSLA have spent over $200bn in capex, equivalent to 20% of the entire S&amp;P500. If it is true that 50% of Nvidia&#39;s sales are to these companies, this means that almost one-third of the capex from these companies has found its way into Nvidia&#39;s coffers.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/25f238808ceeaa53ad53bbf8b3ac0497\" alt=\"Chart of Mag 7 Capex\" title=\"Chart of Mag 7 Capex\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"418\"/><span>Chart of Mag 7 Capex</span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>Bloomberg</strong></p><p></p><p>This huge investment spending has been enabled by the relentless appetite among investors for these stocks, sending a signal to management to continue full steam ahead despite there being little to show for these investments in terms of monetization. Moreover, stock-based compensation, or SBC, for these five companies amounted to $75bn over the same period, equivalent to 36% of the entire S&amp;P500 SBC. While stock-based compensation among these companies is of no benefit to Nvidia directly, their ability to offer expensive stock as compensation to employees has allowed them to ramp up AI training expenditure. Taken together, the combined value of capex and SBC among these five stocks has amounted to 19% of total sales over the past year. As a result, free cash flows excluding stock-based compensation for the group have actually declined over the past two quarters.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/756a69bc3fb19081b4586223420dd9fe\" alt=\"Chart of Mag 7 Cash flows\" title=\"Chart of Mag 7 Cash flows\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"418\"/><span>Chart of Mag 7 Cash flows</span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>Bloomberg</strong></p><p></p><p>The problem now is that these five stocks collectively trade at over 60x free cash flow ex-stock-based compensation, resulting in a free cash flow yield of around 1.5%. Meanwhile, 30-year inflation-linked bonds offer a yield of 2.6%. Such negative risk premiums have not been seen since the height of the late-1990s stock bubble, and strongly suggest that the current bubble is in its final stages. Any decline in the price of these five stocks could trigger a shift in priorities among management teams in favor of capital discipline. That could make it much more expensive for them to dish out stock-based compensation to employees to train AI models.</p><h2 id=\"id_2413479590\">2) Surging Accounts Receivable Is A Headwind For Sales</h2><p>An additional risk to Nvidia comes from the astonishing increase in accounts receivable, which increased by $9.4bn in the past four quarters. In the last quarter alone, the figure rose by $3.6bn. The sudden increase relative to sales stands out as being extreme when measured relative to the rest of the mega-cap universe, as shown in the chart below.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/bae2b98938d00814e2e1fdf7b61cee20\" alt=\"Chart of Mega Cap Accounts Receivable\" title=\"Chart of Mega Cap Accounts Receivable\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"445\"/><span>Chart of Mega Cap Accounts Receivable</span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>Bloomberg</strong></p><p></p><p>Considering that around half of the companies&#39; revenues come from highly stable mega-cap stocks, there is little risk that these reported earnings will not flow into the cash coffers. However, it does create a headwind for future sales, as its customers already owe the company significant amounts of cash.</p><h2 id=\"id_4278785936\">3) Sentiment, Positioning, And Wild Valuation Projections</h2><p>The price of 1-year call options on the stock exceeds the price of 1-year put options, which has only occurred a handful of times over the past decade, typically after a large stock price increase has already happened. As most investors use options as a hedge against a fall in the price of their stock holdings, the fact that it costs more to hedge against a large gain relative to a large drop indicated a large degree of speculative interest in the stock.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/f1b417dee9e02ccf920a94eeee0c6f89\" alt=\"Chart of NVDA Option Volatility\" title=\"Chart of NVDA Option Volatility\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"224\"/><span>Chart of NVDA Option Volatility</span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>Price of 1-Year NVDA Implied Call Option Volatility Vs Put Option Volatility (Bloomberg)</strong></p><p></p><p>Wall Street is also extremely bullish on the stock, with zero analysts giving it a sell rating. Meanwhile, the 12-month price target is fully 23% above current levels and 17% above its all-time high. We have also seen a proliferation of analyses calling for Nvidia to reach staggering valuations as high as $10tn, often justified by its low PEG (price-to-earnings-to-growth) ratio, such as this article. The author argues that Nvidia is a bargain due to expected earnings growth being higher than its forward P/E ratio. Leaving aside the fact that this double counts the rapid earnings growth expected in 2025, the PEG ratio is an extremely flawed valuation metric. It fails to consider the inevitable slowdown in growth that results once a company&#39;s earnings reach a significant share of the economy. It is the kind of metric that is brought out to justify paying extreme multiples for a stock.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/3da07b16243a12a5d8e85c36d6ffd820\" alt=\"Table of PEG Ratios\" title=\"Table of PEG Ratios\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"485\"/><span>Table of PEG Ratios</span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>Barrons</strong></p><p></p><h2 id=\"id_1548182104\">4) Concerning Chart Pattern</h2><p>Despite the widespread optimism towards Nvidia&#39;s stock, its price has failed to break out into new highs, and the large downside reversal candle seen on January 7 hints at a potential reversal pattern. The stock is now no higher than it was at its June peak when I last highlighted the extreme nature of its valuation multiples. Given the widespread bullish positioning in options markets, downside momentum could gather on any further weakness as options traders and margin-funded long positions are forced to reverse their bets.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/2206ab5285cec323d0c2e852c6445b66\" alt=\"Chart of NVDA\" title=\"Chart of NVDA\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"232\"/><span>Chart of NVDA</span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>NVDA Stock Price (Bloomberg)</strong></p><p></p><h2 id=\"id_4263502009\">Summary</h2><p>Nvidia bulls face several significant risks over the coming quarters, including the declining profitability of their main customers, surging accounts receivable, excessive optimism around the stock, and a deterioration in the price chart. A significant decline in the stock seems highly likely in 2025.</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1728464409321","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>4 Underappreciated Risks Facing Nvidia Bulls</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n4 Underappreciated Risks Facing Nvidia Bulls\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2025-01-12 10:00 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4748780-4-underappreciated-risks-facing-nvidia-bulls><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryHeavy reliance on a few mega-cap tech companies poses a significant risk to Nvidia Corporation sales should investors begin to demand capital discipline from these companies.The surge in Nvidia...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4748780-4-underappreciated-risks-facing-nvidia-bulls\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4748780-4-underappreciated-risks-facing-nvidia-bulls","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1162107727","content_text":"SummaryHeavy reliance on a few mega-cap tech companies poses a significant risk to Nvidia Corporation sales should investors begin to demand capital discipline from these companies.The surge in Nvidia's accounts receivable will act as a headwind to sales, as their customers already owe the company significant amounts of cash.Widespread optimism among analysts and options traders poses a risk to valuation multiples should the bullish trend reverse.The failure of the stock to reach new highs recently, combined with recent bearish price action, suggests a potential significant trend change could be afoot.Nvidia Corporation building in Taipei, Taiwan.BING-JHEN HONGThe bullish case for Nvidia Corporation (NASDAQ:NVDA) rests on the continuation of the company's blockbuster earnings growth, which many believe will allow the stock to grow into its elevated valuation multiples. However, I see four underappreciated risks facing the company over the next 12 months. The first is that the decline in profitability of Nvidia's main customers causes a sharp stock price decline and a shift towards capital discipline. Second is the extreme rise in Nvidia's accounts receivable, which may act as a headwind to future sales growth. Third is the extreme levels of optimism among analysts and options markets regarding the stock's outlook. Fourth is the failure of the stock price to rise to new highs despite this widespread optimism. Taken together, I maintain my strong sell rating on the stock and remain short.1) Declining Profitability Of Nvidia's Main CustomersIt could well be the case that a large share of Nvidia's earnings will turn out to reflect malinvestment resulting from the excessive spending among mega-cap tech stocks that has been enabled by the surge in their share prices. It has been estimated that as much as half of Nvidia's sales come from just four companies, namely Microsoft (MSFT), Meta Platforms (META) Amazon (AMZN), and Alphabet (GOOGL), while Tesla (TSLA) is also thought to be a significant customer. This may appear to be a positive thing, as these companies on the whole are highly stable and growing strongly. However, this level of concentration is troubling for several reasons.One risk that has been well documented is that the major cloud computing customers reduce their reliance on Nvidia's chips via their own in-house AI chip development efforts. However, a less well-documented risk comes from a potential collapse in AI industry capex if the valuation bubble in mega-cap tech stocks bursts, leading to a shift towards capital discipline.Over the past year, MSFT, META, GOOGL, AMZN, and TSLA have spent over $200bn in capex, equivalent to 20% of the entire S&P500. If it is true that 50% of Nvidia's sales are to these companies, this means that almost one-third of the capex from these companies has found its way into Nvidia's coffers.Chart of Mag 7 CapexBloombergThis huge investment spending has been enabled by the relentless appetite among investors for these stocks, sending a signal to management to continue full steam ahead despite there being little to show for these investments in terms of monetization. Moreover, stock-based compensation, or SBC, for these five companies amounted to $75bn over the same period, equivalent to 36% of the entire S&P500 SBC. While stock-based compensation among these companies is of no benefit to Nvidia directly, their ability to offer expensive stock as compensation to employees has allowed them to ramp up AI training expenditure. Taken together, the combined value of capex and SBC among these five stocks has amounted to 19% of total sales over the past year. As a result, free cash flows excluding stock-based compensation for the group have actually declined over the past two quarters.Chart of Mag 7 Cash flowsBloombergThe problem now is that these five stocks collectively trade at over 60x free cash flow ex-stock-based compensation, resulting in a free cash flow yield of around 1.5%. Meanwhile, 30-year inflation-linked bonds offer a yield of 2.6%. Such negative risk premiums have not been seen since the height of the late-1990s stock bubble, and strongly suggest that the current bubble is in its final stages. Any decline in the price of these five stocks could trigger a shift in priorities among management teams in favor of capital discipline. That could make it much more expensive for them to dish out stock-based compensation to employees to train AI models.2) Surging Accounts Receivable Is A Headwind For SalesAn additional risk to Nvidia comes from the astonishing increase in accounts receivable, which increased by $9.4bn in the past four quarters. In the last quarter alone, the figure rose by $3.6bn. The sudden increase relative to sales stands out as being extreme when measured relative to the rest of the mega-cap universe, as shown in the chart below.Chart of Mega Cap Accounts ReceivableBloombergConsidering that around half of the companies' revenues come from highly stable mega-cap stocks, there is little risk that these reported earnings will not flow into the cash coffers. However, it does create a headwind for future sales, as its customers already owe the company significant amounts of cash.3) Sentiment, Positioning, And Wild Valuation ProjectionsThe price of 1-year call options on the stock exceeds the price of 1-year put options, which has only occurred a handful of times over the past decade, typically after a large stock price increase has already happened. As most investors use options as a hedge against a fall in the price of their stock holdings, the fact that it costs more to hedge against a large gain relative to a large drop indicated a large degree of speculative interest in the stock.Chart of NVDA Option VolatilityPrice of 1-Year NVDA Implied Call Option Volatility Vs Put Option Volatility (Bloomberg)Wall Street is also extremely bullish on the stock, with zero analysts giving it a sell rating. Meanwhile, the 12-month price target is fully 23% above current levels and 17% above its all-time high. We have also seen a proliferation of analyses calling for Nvidia to reach staggering valuations as high as $10tn, often justified by its low PEG (price-to-earnings-to-growth) ratio, such as this article. The author argues that Nvidia is a bargain due to expected earnings growth being higher than its forward P/E ratio. Leaving aside the fact that this double counts the rapid earnings growth expected in 2025, the PEG ratio is an extremely flawed valuation metric. It fails to consider the inevitable slowdown in growth that results once a company's earnings reach a significant share of the economy. It is the kind of metric that is brought out to justify paying extreme multiples for a stock.Table of PEG RatiosBarrons4) Concerning Chart PatternDespite the widespread optimism towards Nvidia's stock, its price has failed to break out into new highs, and the large downside reversal candle seen on January 7 hints at a potential reversal pattern. The stock is now no higher than it was at its June peak when I last highlighted the extreme nature of its valuation multiples. Given the widespread bullish positioning in options markets, downside momentum could gather on any further weakness as options traders and margin-funded long positions are forced to reverse their bets.Chart of NVDANVDA Stock Price (Bloomberg)SummaryNvidia bulls face several significant risks over the coming quarters, including the declining profitability of their main customers, surging accounts receivable, excessive optimism around the stock, and a deterioration in the price chart. A significant decline in the stock seems highly likely in 2025.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":348,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":382617526878608,"gmtCreate":1734447495602,"gmtModify":1734447535935,"author":{"id":"3574807189087941","authorId":"3574807189087941","name":"Icywinddale","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/3bd2fbf9d90e26b2f600b2c5d7c54244","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574807189087941","authorIdStr":"3574807189087941"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Can not believe this kind shit article can be published. Who is the author?","listText":"Can not believe this kind shit article can be published. Who is the author?","text":"Can not believe this kind shit article can be published. Who is the author?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/382617526878608","repostId":"1128864584","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1128864584","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1734416177,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1128864584?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2024-12-17 14:16","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Nvidia: This Could Be The Top","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1128864584","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryA rather tepid Nvidia Corporation forecast for Q4, which failed to meet Wall Street’s relatively high expectations, is one of the main reasons behind the recent decline in NVDA's share price.At","content":"<html><head></head><body><h2 id=\"id_1885097578\">Summary</h2><ul style=\"\"><li><p>A rather tepid Nvidia Corporation forecast for Q4, which failed to meet Wall Street’s relatively high expectations, is one of the main reasons behind the recent decline in NVDA&#39;s share price.</p></li><li><p>At this point, Nvidia’s stock could be considered overvalued and overhyped at the same time.</p></li><li><p>Nvidia remains a SELL for us, since we believe that its stock has more room to fall.</p></li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/f1cd66fb76fb9c3656779aa6ac145d6d\" alt=\"\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"500\"/></p><p><strong>Nvidia Corporation </strong>(NASDAQ:NVDA) stock is up 14% since we last covered it a couple of months ago, but also down 7% since the release of its Q3 earnings report last month. Although the earnings report was successful, the market is not satisfied with the guidance that the management announced.</p><p>In our previous coverage on Nvidia, we said that the company’s stock is priced for perfection and the inability of the management to constantly increase the outlook significantly above the consensus could kill Nvidia’s momentum. That is precisely what is happening right now. We believe that because of the rising challenges that the company is facing, the future guidance for the upcoming quarters might disappoint as well and lead to a further depreciation of Nvidia’s share price.</p><h2 id=\"id_3690589756\">Reality Fails To Meet Expectations</h2><p>The Q3 numbers themselves weren’t that bad. The revenues were up 93.6% Y/Y to $35.08 billion, above the consensus by nearly $2 billion. The bottom-line performance was also relatively good, as it was above the consensus as well. But because Nvidia was priced for perfection already, the relatively weak guidance killed the stock’s momentum, and the share price is currently on a downward trend.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/b9d4491fd0ada5a07d412d888f3a9fae\" alt=\"Nvidia’s stock price\" title=\"Nvidia’s stock price\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"261\"/><span>Nvidia’s stock price</span></p><p>In Q4, the management expects Nvidia to make $37.5 billion in revenues, which is not that far away from the street consensus of $37.1 billion. Some analysts guided for the revenue goal of as high as $41 billion before the management’s outlook was released. But overall, the guidance mainly disappointed Wall Street and became one of the main reasons behind the latest depreciation. At the same time, Nvidia faces some major challenges that could prevent the company from aggressively increasing the outlook that could impress Wall Street in the upcoming quarters as well.</p><p>The AI accelerators from the Blackwell series are currently one of the most talked about accelerators in the world, with an insane demand according to Nvidia’s management. However, some issues associated with them have already affected Nvidia’s release plans. In October, Blackwell encountered a design flaw that resulted in lower yield rates and delayed their shipping to first clients. Then last month, it was reported that Blackwell chips were overheating in servers.</p><p>Although it appears that those issues have now been fixed and the ramp-up of Blackwell is expected in Q4, Nvidia’s guidance suggests that revenue of $37.5 billion for the upcoming quarter will translate to a Q/Q growth rate of only 7%. This might indicate that despite all the hype surrounding Blackwell, the AI chip buying cycle could be coming off the peak right now. That doesn’t mean that the growth will disappear. However, the growth rate itself should normalize and the aggressive double and triple-digit revenue growth rate that fueled the rise of Nvidia’s stock could become a thing of the past.</p><p>The ramp-up of Blackwell in the upcoming quarters is also expected to affect Nvidia’s margins and could result in a poorer bottom-line performance. The gross margins are expected to decline to the low 70s, and the margin pressure could persist throughout the first part of FY26. This creates additional pressure on Nvidia, as Blackwell needs to perform well for the company to not release another relatively disappointing guidance that further kills the stock of its momentum. Considering that the networking revenues were down sequentially in Q3, and the gaming revenues in Q4 are expected to be down sequentially as well, Nvidia’s upside could be limited in the foreseeable future if Blackwell doesn’t perform well.</p><p>Nvidia also faces additional pressure from hyperscalers, who at the same time are its major clients. They are currently in the middle of designing their own AI chips for their data centers, which over time could undermine Nvidia’s dominant position in the AI accelerator market. We already know that Amazon (AMZN) is working with Intel (INTC) to produce a fabric AI chip, while Apple (AAPL) recently confirmed that it now also uses Amazon’s custom AI chips. Other companies like Microsoft (MSFT), Meta Platforms (META), Google (GOOGL, GOOG), Tesla (TSLA) and OpenAI are also in the middle of designing their own AI chips and could become direct competitors of Nvidia over time.</p><p>All of those developments make us question Nvidia’s market capitalization of $3.4 trillion. The whole generative AI market is not expected to generate as much revenue over the following years. Thus, it doesn’t make a lot of sense for Nvidia to be worth so much today, given the number of issues that it faces.</p><p>The geopolitical issues are also not going anywhere away. The implementation of Trump’s protectionist tariff policy next year could damage global growth, which could result in lower demand for AI chips since businesses could be forced to hoard resources in the face of macroeconomic uncertainty. Nvidia already suffers from the ongoing chip war between China and the United States, as its revenues in China are currently below historically high levels due to chip export restrictions. An uncertain macro environment will only make it harder for it to aggressively increase its outlook to satisfy the market’s needs.</p><h3 id=\"id_211129166\">The Intrinsic Value of Nvidia</h3><p>At the current market price, we also believe that Nvidia is overvalued. Our valuation model from the previous article showed that Nvidia’s intrinsic value is $79.33 per share. Since Nvidia released a new outlook last month, we decided to update our model and make several revisions.</p><p>In the model, we decrease Nvidia’s effective tax rate from 21% to 15%. The 15% is closer to Nvidia’s current rate, and there’s a possibility that the standard corporate tax rate in the United States will be decreased under the Trump administration. The perpetual growth rate remains at 3%, and our valuation model forecasts Nvidia’s performance for the next five years. The long-term debt and cash data have been taken from the latest earnings report, and we update this model when Nvidia is trading at $134.25 per share.</p><p>The discount rate in our valuation model is 9.84%. We figured it out by calculating Nvidia’s after-tax cost of debt and cost of equity. To figure out the cost of debt, we mostly used Nvidia’s TTM data. To figure out the cost of equity, we used the risk-free rate of 4.40%, beta of 1.66, and the market-return rate of 7.69%. We then weighted Nvidia’s debt and equity to arrive at the discount rate.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/a6bea708b99e09c85b15fd4405208555\" alt=\"Nvidia’s valuation model\" title=\"Nvidia’s valuation model\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"182\"/><span>Nvidia’s valuation model</span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>Nvidia’s valuation model (Bears of Wall Street)</strong></p><p></p><p>For the forecast table below, we updated the sales growth rate, which is now similar to the overall expectations for the next couple of years. As the table shows, we expect a normalization of the sales growth rate in the following years. The EBIT rate remained the same as before and is similar to the current TTM rate. The tax rate was decreased, and the bottom part of the forecast table mostly remained the same.</p><p>The assumptions in our forecast table helped us to figure out Nvidia’s enterprise value, which in our case is $2.23 trillion. We then added cash and subtracted debt to arrive at the equity value of $2.26 trillion. Thereafter, we divided Nvidia’s equity value by the number of its outstanding shares and figured out that Nvidia’s intrinsic value is $91.20 per share. The lower tax rate in this updated model is one of the main reasons why the intrinsic value has been higher in comparison to our previous model. However, under the new assumptions, Nvidia’s stock is overvalued by around 32%.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/5c46e9d52e3bae0f74e46a337968e78d\" alt=\"Nvidia’s valuation model\" title=\"Nvidia’s valuation model\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"228\"/><span>Nvidia’s valuation model</span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>Nvidia’s valuation model (Bears of Wall Street)</strong></p><p></p><h3 id=\"id_4292459600\">Risks To Our Bearish Thesis</h3><p>Although we believe that Nvidia’s stock has likely reached its top for now, there are still a couple of potential developments that can undermine our bearish outlook for the company. While we are unlikely to see an aggressive Y/Y growth of sales in the future since the base for comparison has been significantly raised in the last year and a half, that doesn’t mean that the growth will stop. Since there’s a possibility that a chip shortage could last for the next couple of years, there’s a potential that the demand for AI chips will remain for a while. This could result in sales that are higher than the current consensus once the production of Blackwell is ramped up. This could push Nvidia’s stock price higher, like it was a year ago, even if the Y/Y growth rate won’t be as impressive as before.</p><p>The macro risks could also be overblown, and there’s a possibility that the American economy will grow next year despite the geopolitical uncertainty. This could result in a boost in demand for AI chips and also lead to the growth of Nvidia’s share price.</p><h2 id=\"id_2596097235\">Final Thoughts</h2><p>Is Nvidia a great business? Yes. Will it continue to grow for years to come? Most likely yes. But the biggest issue at this point is that the rate at which Nvidia is growing is unlikely to be as impressive as before. We believe that a rather tepid forecast for Q4, which failed to meet Wall Street’s relatively high expectations, is one of the main reasons behind the recent decline of Nvidia’s share price.</p><p>Considering that the stock is already overvalued while challenges for Nvidia continue to increase, it would be tough for the stock to continue to trade at the current relatively high multiples. That is why Nvidia remains a SELL for us, since we believe that its stock has more room to fall.</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1728464409321","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Nvidia: This Could Be The Top</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNvidia: This Could Be The Top\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-12-17 14:16 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4744616-nvidia-this-could-be-the-top><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryA rather tepid Nvidia Corporation forecast for Q4, which failed to meet Wall Street’s relatively high expectations, is one of the main reasons behind the recent decline in NVDA's share price.At...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4744616-nvidia-this-could-be-the-top\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NVDA":"英伟达"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4744616-nvidia-this-could-be-the-top","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1128864584","content_text":"SummaryA rather tepid Nvidia Corporation forecast for Q4, which failed to meet Wall Street’s relatively high expectations, is one of the main reasons behind the recent decline in NVDA's share price.At this point, Nvidia’s stock could be considered overvalued and overhyped at the same time.Nvidia remains a SELL for us, since we believe that its stock has more room to fall.Nvidia Corporation (NASDAQ:NVDA) stock is up 14% since we last covered it a couple of months ago, but also down 7% since the release of its Q3 earnings report last month. Although the earnings report was successful, the market is not satisfied with the guidance that the management announced.In our previous coverage on Nvidia, we said that the company’s stock is priced for perfection and the inability of the management to constantly increase the outlook significantly above the consensus could kill Nvidia’s momentum. That is precisely what is happening right now. We believe that because of the rising challenges that the company is facing, the future guidance for the upcoming quarters might disappoint as well and lead to a further depreciation of Nvidia’s share price.Reality Fails To Meet ExpectationsThe Q3 numbers themselves weren’t that bad. The revenues were up 93.6% Y/Y to $35.08 billion, above the consensus by nearly $2 billion. The bottom-line performance was also relatively good, as it was above the consensus as well. But because Nvidia was priced for perfection already, the relatively weak guidance killed the stock’s momentum, and the share price is currently on a downward trend.Nvidia’s stock priceIn Q4, the management expects Nvidia to make $37.5 billion in revenues, which is not that far away from the street consensus of $37.1 billion. Some analysts guided for the revenue goal of as high as $41 billion before the management’s outlook was released. But overall, the guidance mainly disappointed Wall Street and became one of the main reasons behind the latest depreciation. At the same time, Nvidia faces some major challenges that could prevent the company from aggressively increasing the outlook that could impress Wall Street in the upcoming quarters as well.The AI accelerators from the Blackwell series are currently one of the most talked about accelerators in the world, with an insane demand according to Nvidia’s management. However, some issues associated with them have already affected Nvidia’s release plans. In October, Blackwell encountered a design flaw that resulted in lower yield rates and delayed their shipping to first clients. Then last month, it was reported that Blackwell chips were overheating in servers.Although it appears that those issues have now been fixed and the ramp-up of Blackwell is expected in Q4, Nvidia’s guidance suggests that revenue of $37.5 billion for the upcoming quarter will translate to a Q/Q growth rate of only 7%. This might indicate that despite all the hype surrounding Blackwell, the AI chip buying cycle could be coming off the peak right now. That doesn’t mean that the growth will disappear. However, the growth rate itself should normalize and the aggressive double and triple-digit revenue growth rate that fueled the rise of Nvidia’s stock could become a thing of the past.The ramp-up of Blackwell in the upcoming quarters is also expected to affect Nvidia’s margins and could result in a poorer bottom-line performance. The gross margins are expected to decline to the low 70s, and the margin pressure could persist throughout the first part of FY26. This creates additional pressure on Nvidia, as Blackwell needs to perform well for the company to not release another relatively disappointing guidance that further kills the stock of its momentum. Considering that the networking revenues were down sequentially in Q3, and the gaming revenues in Q4 are expected to be down sequentially as well, Nvidia’s upside could be limited in the foreseeable future if Blackwell doesn’t perform well.Nvidia also faces additional pressure from hyperscalers, who at the same time are its major clients. They are currently in the middle of designing their own AI chips for their data centers, which over time could undermine Nvidia’s dominant position in the AI accelerator market. We already know that Amazon (AMZN) is working with Intel (INTC) to produce a fabric AI chip, while Apple (AAPL) recently confirmed that it now also uses Amazon’s custom AI chips. Other companies like Microsoft (MSFT), Meta Platforms (META), Google (GOOGL, GOOG), Tesla (TSLA) and OpenAI are also in the middle of designing their own AI chips and could become direct competitors of Nvidia over time.All of those developments make us question Nvidia’s market capitalization of $3.4 trillion. The whole generative AI market is not expected to generate as much revenue over the following years. Thus, it doesn’t make a lot of sense for Nvidia to be worth so much today, given the number of issues that it faces.The geopolitical issues are also not going anywhere away. The implementation of Trump’s protectionist tariff policy next year could damage global growth, which could result in lower demand for AI chips since businesses could be forced to hoard resources in the face of macroeconomic uncertainty. Nvidia already suffers from the ongoing chip war between China and the United States, as its revenues in China are currently below historically high levels due to chip export restrictions. An uncertain macro environment will only make it harder for it to aggressively increase its outlook to satisfy the market’s needs.The Intrinsic Value of NvidiaAt the current market price, we also believe that Nvidia is overvalued. Our valuation model from the previous article showed that Nvidia’s intrinsic value is $79.33 per share. Since Nvidia released a new outlook last month, we decided to update our model and make several revisions.In the model, we decrease Nvidia’s effective tax rate from 21% to 15%. The 15% is closer to Nvidia’s current rate, and there’s a possibility that the standard corporate tax rate in the United States will be decreased under the Trump administration. The perpetual growth rate remains at 3%, and our valuation model forecasts Nvidia’s performance for the next five years. The long-term debt and cash data have been taken from the latest earnings report, and we update this model when Nvidia is trading at $134.25 per share.The discount rate in our valuation model is 9.84%. We figured it out by calculating Nvidia’s after-tax cost of debt and cost of equity. To figure out the cost of debt, we mostly used Nvidia’s TTM data. To figure out the cost of equity, we used the risk-free rate of 4.40%, beta of 1.66, and the market-return rate of 7.69%. We then weighted Nvidia’s debt and equity to arrive at the discount rate.Nvidia’s valuation modelNvidia’s valuation model (Bears of Wall Street)For the forecast table below, we updated the sales growth rate, which is now similar to the overall expectations for the next couple of years. As the table shows, we expect a normalization of the sales growth rate in the following years. The EBIT rate remained the same as before and is similar to the current TTM rate. The tax rate was decreased, and the bottom part of the forecast table mostly remained the same.The assumptions in our forecast table helped us to figure out Nvidia’s enterprise value, which in our case is $2.23 trillion. We then added cash and subtracted debt to arrive at the equity value of $2.26 trillion. Thereafter, we divided Nvidia’s equity value by the number of its outstanding shares and figured out that Nvidia’s intrinsic value is $91.20 per share. The lower tax rate in this updated model is one of the main reasons why the intrinsic value has been higher in comparison to our previous model. However, under the new assumptions, Nvidia’s stock is overvalued by around 32%.Nvidia’s valuation modelNvidia’s valuation model (Bears of Wall Street)Risks To Our Bearish ThesisAlthough we believe that Nvidia’s stock has likely reached its top for now, there are still a couple of potential developments that can undermine our bearish outlook for the company. While we are unlikely to see an aggressive Y/Y growth of sales in the future since the base for comparison has been significantly raised in the last year and a half, that doesn’t mean that the growth will stop. Since there’s a possibility that a chip shortage could last for the next couple of years, there’s a potential that the demand for AI chips will remain for a while. This could result in sales that are higher than the current consensus once the production of Blackwell is ramped up. This could push Nvidia’s stock price higher, like it was a year ago, even if the Y/Y growth rate won’t be as impressive as before.The macro risks could also be overblown, and there’s a possibility that the American economy will grow next year despite the geopolitical uncertainty. This could result in a boost in demand for AI chips and also lead to the growth of Nvidia’s share price.Final ThoughtsIs Nvidia a great business? Yes. Will it continue to grow for years to come? Most likely yes. But the biggest issue at this point is that the rate at which Nvidia is growing is unlikely to be as impressive as before. We believe that a rather tepid forecast for Q4, which failed to meet Wall Street’s relatively high expectations, is one of the main reasons behind the recent decline of Nvidia’s share price.Considering that the stock is already overvalued while challenges for Nvidia continue to increase, it would be tough for the stock to continue to trade at the current relatively high multiples. That is why Nvidia remains a SELL for us, since we believe that its stock has more room to fall.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":702,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":345446838050944,"gmtCreate":1725379900830,"gmtModify":1725379902772,"author":{"id":"3574807189087941","authorId":"3574807189087941","name":"Icywinddale","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/3bd2fbf9d90e26b2f600b2c5d7c54244","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574807189087941","authorIdStr":"3574807189087941"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Share your opinion about this news…","listText":"Share your opinion about this news…","text":"Share your opinion about this news…","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/345446838050944","repostId":"2464383499","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2464383499","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1725377795,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2464383499?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2024-09-03 23:36","market":"nz","language":"en","title":"Nvidia Stock Is Selling Off: It's Not Because Of Blackwell","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2464383499","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"We look at this and more below. Q2 Revenue Beats Estimates Q2’s revenue of $30.04 billion increased 122% YoY and 15% QoQ, with management pointing out that “customers continue to accelerate their Hopper architecture purchases while gearing up to adopt Blackwell.” This marked a $1.3 billion beat to the consensus estimate for $28.75 billion. It also was a deceleration from 262% YoY growth in Q1, as Nvidia is","content":"<html><head></head><body><ul style=\"\"><li><p>Despite this being one of the “smaller” beats in recent quarters, it’s a testament to the strength of Nvidia Corporation’s demand to guide for $2.5 billion sequential growth.</p></li><li><p>Direct liquid cooling doesn’t lie, as it’s intricately linked to the Blackwell launch, implying that Blackwell would indeed ship by Q4.</p></li><li><p>Margins remained strong in Q2, with Nvidia reporting gross and operating margins at the high end and above guided ranges. However, management guided for Q3 margins to contract slightly QoQ.</p></li></ul><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/ee213c33513fe93579d4696a7c904900\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"500\"/></p><p>Sundry Photography</p><p></p><p>Our firm extrapolated supply chain data to conclude that Blackwell <em>is</em> in production at Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) and Super Micro Computer (SMCI) last week in the analysis: Nvidia Stock: Blackwell Suppliers Shrug Off Delay. The media was making much ado about nothing (and astonishingly, still is) despite crystal clear confirmation from Nvidia’s (NASDAQ:NVDA) management team that all is well.</p><p>Given these delay rumors, it was widely expected that Nvidia’s management would provide some transparency in Q2 as to the status of Blackwell. I joined ‘Making Money’ on Fox Business Network shortly before Nvidia’s report, telling host Charles Payne that “we are getting bullish signals from the supply chain,” such as TSM’s HPC growth and Super Micro’s liquid cooling growth, and that I “fully expect Nvidia’s management team to calm any concerns about the outlook for Blackwell.”</p><p>Direct liquid cooling doesn’t lie as it’s intricately linked to the Blackwell launch, implying that Blackwell would indeed ship by Q4 – and Nvidia just confirmed that (multiple times) in Q2’s release (emphasis added):</p><blockquote><p>Blackwell production ramp is scheduled to begin in the fourth quarter and continue into fiscal 2026. <strong>In the fourth quarter, we expect to ship several billion dollars in Blackwell revenue</strong>.”</p></blockquote><p>Later in the call, Jensen Huang stated:</p><blockquote><p>There were no functional changes necessary. And so we&#39;re sampling functional samples of Blackwell — Grace Blackwell in a variety of system configurations as we speak. There are something like 100 different types of Blackwell-based systems that are built that were shown at Computex. And we&#39;re enabling our ecosystem to start sampling those. The functionality of Blackwell is as it is, and we expect to start production in Q4.”</p></blockquote><p>We had published for our free readers going into the print that the valuation was stretched, and it would require fiscal year revisions to create room in the valuation. As you’ll see below, we got a few revisions today, which is paramount for the stock price. Will these upward revisions be enough to sustain the price? We look at this and more below.</p><h2 id=\"id_3290045767\">Q2 Revenue Beats Estimates</h2><p>Q2’s revenue of $30.04 billion increased 122% YoY and 15% QoQ, with management pointing out that “customers continue to accelerate their Hopper architecture purchases while gearing up to adopt Blackwell.” This marked a $1.3 billion beat to the consensus estimate for $28.75 billion. It also was a deceleration from 262% YoY growth in Q1, as Nvidia is now facing tougher comps against the vertical ramp of Hopper last year. GAAP EPS of $0.67 beat estimates by $0.03, and represented YoY growth of 168% and QoQ growth of 12%.</p><p>Nvidia guided for Q3 revenue of $32.5 billion, once again above consensus estimates, though it was only $700 million higher than the $31.77 billion estimate at the midpoint. This represents growth of 79.4% YoY at midpoint, compared to the estimate for 75.3% growth next quarter. Despite this being one of the “smaller beats” in recent quarters, it’s a testament to the strength of Nvidia’s demand to guide for $2.5 billion sequential growth primarily based on Hopper demand with no contribution from Blackwell.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/3e797affa322bf8b07352a00dea24009\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"389\"/></p><p>Tech Insider Network</p><p></p><h2 id=\"id_3356155711\">Data Center Strength Visible with Blackwell on Tap</h2><p>Data center revenue surpassed a $105 billion annualized run rate this quarter, up from $90 billion annualized last quarter, as Nvidia reported $26.27 billion in data center revenue, up 152% YoY and 16% QoQ. Nvidia said that “Hopper demand is strong, and shipments are expected to increase in the second half of fiscal 2025,” while Blackwell is on track to ramp in Q4 with “several” billions in revenue expected that quarter.</p><p><strong>Notably, purchase commitments and obligations for inventory and capacity rose nearly 48% QoQ to $27.8 billion</strong>, <strong>including “new commitments for Blackwell capacity and components,” another signal that Nvidia is prepared to ramp in full-force come Q4.</strong></p><p>In the segment, compute revenue was $22.6 billion, up 162% YoY, while networking revenue was $3.67 billion, up 114% YoY. In networking, Nvidia noted that InfiniBand and Ethernet drove growth in the quarter, and the 16% QoQ growth included “a doubling of Ethernet for AI revenue.”</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/6838c93116c97f7f470e16c9d239b4c3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"394\"/></p><p>Tech Insider Network</p><p></p><p>Nvidia’s Q3 revenue guide implies data center revenue above $28 billion to $28.5 billion, which we had modeled in our pre-earnings analysis earlier this week.</p><h2 id=\"id_3574828977\">Delay Concerns Cleared, But Valuation Looks Stretched</h2><p>Nvidia cleared the delay concerns for Blackwell, saying that they “shipped customer samples of our Blackwell architecture in the second quarter. We executed a change to the Blackwell GPU mask to improve production yield. Blackwell production ramp is scheduled to begin in the fourth quarter and continue into fiscal 2026,” with several billion in Blackwell revenue expected in Q4. <strong>Purchase commitments reiterated that Nvidia is serious about launching on schedule, and lining up the capacity and components to launch in full-force by the end of the year.</strong></p><p>I spoke with Yahoo Finance on Thursday morning following the report, reemphasizing that the delay concerns were</p><blockquote><p>“completely thrown off the table last night. … Wall Street obviously is very closely tied to estimates, and we never saw revisions downward based on the so-called delay. … Nvidia beat, and they’re saying Blackwell is basically on time,” which is “not a concern — if anything, it’s extremely bullish.”</p></blockquote><p>However, I cautioned on the valuation:</p><blockquote><p>“When you have a high-flyer like Nvidia, you get stretched at times. Going into the print, we warned our members that this valuation is looking a little toppy. What we need is for the fiscal year estimates next year to go up, so we’re in a waiting game for analysts to revise their estimates upward, which eventually they will, but until then the valuation is stretched.”</p></blockquote><p>This morning, while I was being interviewed by Yahoo, we’ve already seen analyst estimates for Nvidia’s revenue revised higher following the report:</p><ul style=\"\"><li><p>Fiscal 2025 revenue is now estimated at $124.8 billion, up 3.9% from the $120.1 billion estimate before Q2’s report.</p></li><li><p>Fiscal 2026 revenue is now estimated at $172.1 billion, up 5.2% from the $163.6 billion estimate before the report.</p></li></ul><p>However, the true impact of Blackwell is yet to be seen in these estimates, with the only clues right now being Q3’s $32.5 billion guide and expectations for several billion in Blackwell revenue in Q4. From a long-term perspective, I explained on Yahoo Finance that the first “pathway for growth is to pay very close attention to Nvidia around the fiscal year guide,” while the “second-biggest moment of the year will be when Blackwell is shipping in volume. This will be the Q2 report, but we’ll get some signs in Q1 with that forward guide.” I believe that “early next year will be fireworks” for Nvidia, similar to Hopper’s moment in the fiscal Q1 report in May 2023.</p><h2 id=\"id_3790633464\">Eyes on Margins as Blackwell Ramps</h2><p>Margins remained strong in Q2, with Nvidia reporting gross and operating margins at the high end and above its guided ranges. However, management guided for Q3 margins to contract slightly QoQ, suggesting that Q1 was the peak for both gross and operating margins with some pressure ahead as Blackwell gears up to launch in Q4.</p><ul style=\"\"><li><p>GAAP gross margin was 75.1% in Q2, ahead of management’s guide for 74.8%. Adjusted gross margin was 75.7%, ahead of guidance for 75.5%. Per the CFO: “As our Data Center mix continues to shift to new products, we expect this trend to continue into the fourth quarter of fiscal 2025.” It’s likely she is referring to the higher cost of memory components, which we outlined in our pre-earnings analysis.</p></li><li><p>GAAP operating margin was 62.1%, ahead of the implied guide for 60.5%, indicative of the operating leverage power that Nvidia still commands in mid-launch cycle for Hopper with the H200s shipping now. Adjusted operating margin was 66.4%, ahead of the implied guide of 65.5%.</p></li><li><p>GAAP net margin was 55.3% down from 57.1% last quarter. This represents profits of $16.6 billion, up over $2 billion. This was a considerable beat compared to the $14.3 billion guided.</p></li></ul><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/ad11c9859a385f1bcb2a07b3c64278dc\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"435\"/></p><p>Tech Insider Network</p><p></p><p>The chart above shows Nvidia’s margins, with the slight sequential contraction this quarter and next quarter visible. It’s no small feat to maintain GAAP operating margin &gt;60% for four consecutive quarters while simultaneously undergoing the semiconductor industry’s most advanced and most rapid product release cycle. However, with management guiding for full-year gross margins to be in the mid-70% range, we’ll be keeping a close eye on how margins trend in Q3 heading into Q4 as Blackwell ramps — where the market is a tad concerned is gross margins, which peaked at 78.4% and will exit the year in the mid-70% range.</p><h2 id=\"id_4176203671\">Conclusion</h2><p>Our pre-earnings write-up expressed concerns about the valuation going into the print, and I think the selling on Thursday reflects the valuation. Our firm stuck our neck out over the past few weeks to bring quality information to our readers on how the supply chain for Blackwell is ramping. We were the first and only firm that I’m aware of to present actionable data that countered what other media outlets were reporting. To refresh your memory, media outlets stated Blackwell was delayed into Q1:</p><blockquote><p>If the upcoming AI chips, known as the B100, B200 and GB200, are delayed three months or more, it may prevent some customers from operating large clusters of the chips in their data centers in the first quarter of 2025, as they had planned.”</p></blockquote><p>In contrast, my analysis stated:</p><blockquote><p>From the horse’s mouth, Nvidia’s own management team, it was stated during the GTC Financial Analyst Day in March that the very first systems will ship in Q4, but to expect constraints.”</p></blockquote><p>Well, we have our answer – Blackwell is, in fact, shipping in Q4 and ramping in Q1. Purchase commitments up 48% QoQ help to reflect how serious the company is when it comes to the speed of ramping shipments.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/3af6cab45517e73899d633e9f930950d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"988\"/></p><p>x.com</p><p></p><p>Earnings reports are truly 50/50 – nobody can tell you what the market will do following a report. For example, we had high confidence Nvidia would beat, but there’s much more to consider than a beat. What’s important is to have a strategy. Our firm champions actively managing tech positions rather than buy-and-hold.</p><p>Our plan is to trim Nvidia Corporation stock at key levels and attempt to buy lower. This is due to valuation concerns, but also importantly, many AI stocks are trading at stretched valuations. We’ve stated publicly a few times that Nvidia is a buy on dips, implying investors who are patient will find entries at lower prices.</p><p><strong>Recommended Reading:</strong></p><ul style=\"\"><li><p><strong>Nvidia Stock: Blackwell Suppliers Shrug Off Delay Ahead Of Q2 Earnings</strong></p></li><li><p><strong>Arm Stock: Buy Its Customers, Not The Stock</strong></p></li><li><p><strong>Big Tech Battles On AI, Here’s The Winner</strong></p></li><li><p><strong>Palantir’s Stock is Priced for Perfection</strong></p></li></ul><p>Editor&#39;s Note: This article discusses one or more securities that do not trade on a major U.S. exchange. Please be aware of the risks associated with these stocks.</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Nvidia Stock Is Selling Off: It's Not Because Of Blackwell</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ 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}\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNvidia Stock Is Selling Off: It's Not Because Of Blackwell\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-09-03 23:36 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4718668-nvidia-stock-is-selling-off-its-not-because-of-blackwell><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Despite this being one of the “smaller” beats in recent quarters, it’s a testament to the strength of Nvidia Corporation’s demand to guide for $2.5 billion sequential growth.Direct liquid cooling ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4718668-nvidia-stock-is-selling-off-its-not-because-of-blackwell\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"IE00BJLML261.HKD":"HSBC GLOBAL EQUITY INDEX \"HCH\" (HKD) ACC","IE00BYQQ9H92.USD":"BNY MELLON GLOBAL LEADERS \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU1868837565.USD":"CT (LUX) I GLOBAL 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A2","LU0541502299.USD":"ALLSPRING  EMERGING MARKETS EQUITY \"I\" (USD) ACC","GB00BDT5M118.USD":"天利环球扩展Alpha基金A Acc","LU0889565833.HKD":"FRANKLIN TECHNOLOGY \"A\" (HKD) ACC","LU0143863784.USD":"CT (LUX) I GLOBAL EMERGING MARKET EQUITIES\"DU\" (USD) ACC","LU0823421333.USD":"BNP PARIBAS DISRUPTIVE TECHNOLOGY \"C\" (USD) ACC","IE00BZ199S13.USD":"BNY MELLON MOBILITY INNOVATION \"B\" (USD) ACC","LU2125154778.USD":"ALLSPRING GLOBAL EQUITY ENHANCED INCOME \"A\" (USD) INC","LU0823414551.USD":"BNP PARIBAS ENERGY TRANSITION \"C\" (USD) INC","IE00B1XK9C88.USD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0823421416.USD":"BNP PARIBAS DISRUPTIVE TECHNOLOGY \"C\" (USD) INC","IE00BMPRXR70.SGD":"Neuberger Berman 5G Connectivity A Acc SGD-H"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4718668-nvidia-stock-is-selling-off-its-not-because-of-blackwell","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"2464383499","content_text":"Despite this being one of the “smaller” beats in recent quarters, it’s a testament to the strength of Nvidia Corporation’s demand to guide for $2.5 billion sequential growth.Direct liquid cooling doesn’t lie, as it’s intricately linked to the Blackwell launch, implying that Blackwell would indeed ship by Q4.Margins remained strong in Q2, with Nvidia reporting gross and operating margins at the high end and above guided ranges. However, management guided for Q3 margins to contract slightly QoQ.Sundry PhotographyOur firm extrapolated supply chain data to conclude that Blackwell is in production at Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) and Super Micro Computer (SMCI) last week in the analysis: Nvidia Stock: Blackwell Suppliers Shrug Off Delay. The media was making much ado about nothing (and astonishingly, still is) despite crystal clear confirmation from Nvidia’s (NASDAQ:NVDA) management team that all is well.Given these delay rumors, it was widely expected that Nvidia’s management would provide some transparency in Q2 as to the status of Blackwell. I joined ‘Making Money’ on Fox Business Network shortly before Nvidia’s report, telling host Charles Payne that “we are getting bullish signals from the supply chain,” such as TSM’s HPC growth and Super Micro’s liquid cooling growth, and that I “fully expect Nvidia’s management team to calm any concerns about the outlook for Blackwell.”Direct liquid cooling doesn’t lie as it’s intricately linked to the Blackwell launch, implying that Blackwell would indeed ship by Q4 – and Nvidia just confirmed that (multiple times) in Q2’s release (emphasis added):Blackwell production ramp is scheduled to begin in the fourth quarter and continue into fiscal 2026. In the fourth quarter, we expect to ship several billion dollars in Blackwell revenue.”Later in the call, Jensen Huang stated:There were no functional changes necessary. And so we're sampling functional samples of Blackwell — Grace Blackwell in a variety of system configurations as we speak. There are something like 100 different types of Blackwell-based systems that are built that were shown at Computex. And we're enabling our ecosystem to start sampling those. The functionality of Blackwell is as it is, and we expect to start production in Q4.”We had published for our free readers going into the print that the valuation was stretched, and it would require fiscal year revisions to create room in the valuation. As you’ll see below, we got a few revisions today, which is paramount for the stock price. Will these upward revisions be enough to sustain the price? We look at this and more below.Q2 Revenue Beats EstimatesQ2’s revenue of $30.04 billion increased 122% YoY and 15% QoQ, with management pointing out that “customers continue to accelerate their Hopper architecture purchases while gearing up to adopt Blackwell.” This marked a $1.3 billion beat to the consensus estimate for $28.75 billion. It also was a deceleration from 262% YoY growth in Q1, as Nvidia is now facing tougher comps against the vertical ramp of Hopper last year. GAAP EPS of $0.67 beat estimates by $0.03, and represented YoY growth of 168% and QoQ growth of 12%.Nvidia guided for Q3 revenue of $32.5 billion, once again above consensus estimates, though it was only $700 million higher than the $31.77 billion estimate at the midpoint. This represents growth of 79.4% YoY at midpoint, compared to the estimate for 75.3% growth next quarter. Despite this being one of the “smaller beats” in recent quarters, it’s a testament to the strength of Nvidia’s demand to guide for $2.5 billion sequential growth primarily based on Hopper demand with no contribution from Blackwell.Tech Insider NetworkData Center Strength Visible with Blackwell on TapData center revenue surpassed a $105 billion annualized run rate this quarter, up from $90 billion annualized last quarter, as Nvidia reported $26.27 billion in data center revenue, up 152% YoY and 16% QoQ. Nvidia said that “Hopper demand is strong, and shipments are expected to increase in the second half of fiscal 2025,” while Blackwell is on track to ramp in Q4 with “several” billions in revenue expected that quarter.Notably, purchase commitments and obligations for inventory and capacity rose nearly 48% QoQ to $27.8 billion, including “new commitments for Blackwell capacity and components,” another signal that Nvidia is prepared to ramp in full-force come Q4.In the segment, compute revenue was $22.6 billion, up 162% YoY, while networking revenue was $3.67 billion, up 114% YoY. In networking, Nvidia noted that InfiniBand and Ethernet drove growth in the quarter, and the 16% QoQ growth included “a doubling of Ethernet for AI revenue.”Tech Insider NetworkNvidia’s Q3 revenue guide implies data center revenue above $28 billion to $28.5 billion, which we had modeled in our pre-earnings analysis earlier this week.Delay Concerns Cleared, But Valuation Looks StretchedNvidia cleared the delay concerns for Blackwell, saying that they “shipped customer samples of our Blackwell architecture in the second quarter. We executed a change to the Blackwell GPU mask to improve production yield. Blackwell production ramp is scheduled to begin in the fourth quarter and continue into fiscal 2026,” with several billion in Blackwell revenue expected in Q4. Purchase commitments reiterated that Nvidia is serious about launching on schedule, and lining up the capacity and components to launch in full-force by the end of the year.I spoke with Yahoo Finance on Thursday morning following the report, reemphasizing that the delay concerns were“completely thrown off the table last night. … Wall Street obviously is very closely tied to estimates, and we never saw revisions downward based on the so-called delay. … Nvidia beat, and they’re saying Blackwell is basically on time,” which is “not a concern — if anything, it’s extremely bullish.”However, I cautioned on the valuation:“When you have a high-flyer like Nvidia, you get stretched at times. Going into the print, we warned our members that this valuation is looking a little toppy. What we need is for the fiscal year estimates next year to go up, so we’re in a waiting game for analysts to revise their estimates upward, which eventually they will, but until then the valuation is stretched.”This morning, while I was being interviewed by Yahoo, we’ve already seen analyst estimates for Nvidia’s revenue revised higher following the report:Fiscal 2025 revenue is now estimated at $124.8 billion, up 3.9% from the $120.1 billion estimate before Q2’s report.Fiscal 2026 revenue is now estimated at $172.1 billion, up 5.2% from the $163.6 billion estimate before the report.However, the true impact of Blackwell is yet to be seen in these estimates, with the only clues right now being Q3’s $32.5 billion guide and expectations for several billion in Blackwell revenue in Q4. From a long-term perspective, I explained on Yahoo Finance that the first “pathway for growth is to pay very close attention to Nvidia around the fiscal year guide,” while the “second-biggest moment of the year will be when Blackwell is shipping in volume. This will be the Q2 report, but we’ll get some signs in Q1 with that forward guide.” I believe that “early next year will be fireworks” for Nvidia, similar to Hopper’s moment in the fiscal Q1 report in May 2023.Eyes on Margins as Blackwell RampsMargins remained strong in Q2, with Nvidia reporting gross and operating margins at the high end and above its guided ranges. However, management guided for Q3 margins to contract slightly QoQ, suggesting that Q1 was the peak for both gross and operating margins with some pressure ahead as Blackwell gears up to launch in Q4.GAAP gross margin was 75.1% in Q2, ahead of management’s guide for 74.8%. Adjusted gross margin was 75.7%, ahead of guidance for 75.5%. Per the CFO: “As our Data Center mix continues to shift to new products, we expect this trend to continue into the fourth quarter of fiscal 2025.” It’s likely she is referring to the higher cost of memory components, which we outlined in our pre-earnings analysis.GAAP operating margin was 62.1%, ahead of the implied guide for 60.5%, indicative of the operating leverage power that Nvidia still commands in mid-launch cycle for Hopper with the H200s shipping now. Adjusted operating margin was 66.4%, ahead of the implied guide of 65.5%.GAAP net margin was 55.3% down from 57.1% last quarter. This represents profits of $16.6 billion, up over $2 billion. This was a considerable beat compared to the $14.3 billion guided.Tech Insider NetworkThe chart above shows Nvidia’s margins, with the slight sequential contraction this quarter and next quarter visible. It’s no small feat to maintain GAAP operating margin >60% for four consecutive quarters while simultaneously undergoing the semiconductor industry’s most advanced and most rapid product release cycle. However, with management guiding for full-year gross margins to be in the mid-70% range, we’ll be keeping a close eye on how margins trend in Q3 heading into Q4 as Blackwell ramps — where the market is a tad concerned is gross margins, which peaked at 78.4% and will exit the year in the mid-70% range.ConclusionOur pre-earnings write-up expressed concerns about the valuation going into the print, and I think the selling on Thursday reflects the valuation. Our firm stuck our neck out over the past few weeks to bring quality information to our readers on how the supply chain for Blackwell is ramping. We were the first and only firm that I’m aware of to present actionable data that countered what other media outlets were reporting. To refresh your memory, media outlets stated Blackwell was delayed into Q1:If the upcoming AI chips, known as the B100, B200 and GB200, are delayed three months or more, it may prevent some customers from operating large clusters of the chips in their data centers in the first quarter of 2025, as they had planned.”In contrast, my analysis stated:From the horse’s mouth, Nvidia’s own management team, it was stated during the GTC Financial Analyst Day in March that the very first systems will ship in Q4, but to expect constraints.”Well, we have our answer – Blackwell is, in fact, shipping in Q4 and ramping in Q1. Purchase commitments up 48% QoQ help to reflect how serious the company is when it comes to the speed of ramping shipments.x.comEarnings reports are truly 50/50 – nobody can tell you what the market will do following a report. For example, we had high confidence Nvidia would beat, but there’s much more to consider than a beat. What’s important is to have a strategy. Our firm champions actively managing tech positions rather than buy-and-hold.Our plan is to trim Nvidia Corporation stock at key levels and attempt to buy lower. This is due to valuation concerns, but also importantly, many AI stocks are trading at stretched valuations. We’ve stated publicly a few times that Nvidia is a buy on dips, implying investors who are patient will find entries at lower prices.Recommended Reading:Nvidia Stock: Blackwell Suppliers Shrug Off Delay Ahead Of Q2 EarningsArm Stock: Buy Its Customers, Not The StockBig Tech Battles On AI, Here’s The WinnerPalantir’s Stock is Priced for PerfectionEditor's Note: This article discusses one or more securities that do not trade on a major U.S. exchange. Please be aware of the risks associated with these stocks.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":207,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":335551065743560,"gmtCreate":1722957736271,"gmtModify":1722957739644,"author":{"id":"3574807189087941","authorId":"3574807189087941","name":"Icywinddale","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/3bd2fbf9d90e26b2f600b2c5d7c54244","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574807189087941","authorIdStr":"3574807189087941"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nonsense","listText":"Nonsense","text":"Nonsense","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/335551065743560","repostId":"2457119010","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2457119010","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1722957530,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2457119010?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2024-08-06 23:18","market":"nz","language":"en","title":"AMD: Ample Room For Further Decline","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2457119010","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"AMD stock has declined by 13% in the last three months, with more negatives than positives surrounding the company.AMD's generous premium over its fair value does not seem sustainable, given its strat","content":"<html><head></head><body><ul style=\"\"><li><p>AMD stock has declined by 13% in the last three months, with more negatives than positives surrounding the company.</p></li><li><p>AMD&#39;s generous premium over its fair value does not seem sustainable, given its strategic weaknesses in GPUs compared to Nvidia and mounting inventory problems.</p></li><li><p>AMD&#39;s valuation ratios are unjustified, with a DCF model indicating a fair price of $85, 36% lower than the current share price.</p></li><li><p>Most prominent clients find Nvidia&#39;s products more appealing than AMD&#39;s, as evidenced by Big Tech companies mentioning Nvidia&#39;s GPUs eleven times more frequently than AMD&#39;s in their latest earnings transcripts, indicating Nvidia&#39;s superior position in the AI race.</p></li></ul><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/6c5ebcc44def102b51f242e0a9d23f89\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"500\"/></p><p>JHVEPhoto</p><p></p><h2 id=\"id_867592751\">Introduction</h2><p>I had a Sell-rated thesis about <strong>Advanced Micro Devices </strong>(NASDAQ:AMD) in May, and the stock has declined by 13% over the last three months, compared to +2.5% from the S&amp;P 500 (SP500). AMD delivered its Q2 report recently, which had some positive moments, but I still think that there are more negatives than positives around AMD. There is not much I can say optimistic about the company&#39;s segments apart from Data Centers enjoying strong AI momentum. On the other hand, I think that AMD&#39;s potential in AI is quite limited as it competes with Nvidia (NVDA), which is miles ahead.</p><p>The sky-high inventory problem continues mounting as the balance grew by around $350 million sequentially, further increasing risks of inventory impairment and recording multi-billion P&amp;L charges in the foreseeable future. The stock currently trades around 40% cheaper than its March 2024 peaks, but my analysis suggests that valuation is far from being attractive. All these unfavorable factors mean that I am inclined to reiterate a &#34;Sell&#34; rating for AMD. The extent of overvaluation, which is 36%, makes me think that there is still a lot of space to fall further. Therefore, it appears to be risky to buy or even hold this falling knife (stock price deteriorated by 6% over the last five trading days).</p><h2 id=\"id_2987327171\">Fundamental analysis</h2><p>AMD released its latest 10-Q report on July 31, and I want to focus on it first. Revenue grew by 8.9% YoY in Q2 2024. Revenue growth was quite uneven across the company&#39;s segments. Data Center segment continues capitalizing on massive AI tailwinds as its sales more than doubled YoY in Q2. The segment&#39;s growth was mostly driven by higher sales of AMD Instinct GPUs and 4th Gen AMD EPYC CPUs.</p><p>The Client segment (&#39;PC&#39;) also demonstrated strong 50% YoY growth in Q2. On the other hand, I am not as optimistic about the Client segment because comparative figures were quite low. For example, the segment generated $2.2 billion revenue in Q2 2022 meaning that sales still did not recover compared to historical highs.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/fb407b1c39625213db5b91ba96be853d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"220\"/></p><p>AMD&#39;s 10-Q (Q2 2024)</p><p></p><p>Two other segments disappointed significantly, in my opinion. Gaming revenue more than halved due to a decrease in semi-custom revenue. Embedded revenue also decreased sharply on a YoY basis in Q2, as customers continued normalizing their inventory levels.</p><p>The operating margin improved on a YoY basis from -0.4% to 4.6%. Any improvement in this metric is a good sign, but Q2&#39;s operating margin is still far below the company&#39;s historical peaks. Sky-high inventory levels are still a big problem weighing on profitability. The problem continues mounting since inventory balance was around $350 million higher sequentially. During the Q2 earnings call, the management explained this increase by the necessity to address spiking demand from data centers. However, nothing was said about $4.5 billion worth of inventory that was accumulated during 2022-2023.</p><p>With such a warning trend, there is a significant risk AMD&#39;s warehouses might become full of obsolete products over these nine quarters because of the rapid pace of innovation in the industry. To understand how deep the inventory problem is for AMD, please look at the below chart. Nvidia generates more than four times higher quarterly revenue, but its inventory levels are comparable to AMD.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/b248179a74fcfb5a1870cb5958f8a69e\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"473\"/></p><p>Data by YCharts</p><p></p><p>Another bearish indicator is weakening momentum. If we look at AMD&#39;s SA Quant Momentum page, we see that the momentum is certainly cooling down. More recent timeframes demonstrate much weaker dynamics compared to older timeframes. To me, this is a clear indication that an unjustified hype around AMD is cooling down.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/dd994d4dd666ffc6b9e125fb13c710b6\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"190\"/></p><p>SA</p><p></p><p>Recent developments were mostly positive, but it is difficult to consider them as strong catalysts for the stock price. In July, the company announced that it acquires Silo AI to improve its offerings in enterprise AI solutions. The deal size of $665 million does not look significant compared to AMD&#39;s scale, therefore at the moment it is difficult to say that benefits or risks are game-changing in this case.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/f41f390e7d6ef9944600673d93172ece\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"439\"/></p><p>Data by YCharts</p><p></p><p>During the Computex 2024 event, AMD revealed its roadmap for Instinct accelerators, including the new MI325X accelerator, which is expected to be available by the end of 2024. AMD is well-known for its consistent commitment to innovation and rolling out improvements to its stellar products, but comparisons with Nvidia are inevitable.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/b5723401b015834a8bf4c00e99acb9fc\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"195\"/></p><p>SA</p><p></p><p>The company&#39;s R&amp;D spending looks incomparable, which puts AMD in a weaker position against Nvidia in terms of innovation. Apart from incomparable TTM free cash flow of these two companies ($2 billion generated by AMD versus $29 billion generated by NVDA), accumulated financial resources also cannot be compared. That said, investors should not forget that AMD competes against a true monster from the financial strength perspective.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/c55b160498f6f7452eeba45f785f66ad\" tg-width=\"527\" tg-height=\"210\"/></p><p>Compiled by the author</p><p></p><p>Last but not least, there is a remarkable fact that during this earnings season. Big Tech companies mentioned NVDA and its GPUs much more frequently than they mentioned AMD or any of its products. I have analyzed all the latest earnings transcripts from the biggest and most technologically advanced U.S. companies, and it was eleven NVDA mentions versus only one AMD mention. I think that this fact clearly indicates the positioning of these two semiconductor companies in the AI race, where Nvidia is miles ahead.</p><h2 id=\"id_1604547003\">Valuation analysis</h2><p>Based on the peer analysis of valuation ratios, AMD appears to be one of the most expensive semiconductor stocks now. Its TTM P/E ratio is by far the highest compared to other prominent chip companies, and its forward P/E ratio is more than two times higher compared to Nvidia&#39;s. Its forward EV/EBITDA ratio is also extremely high compared to rivals. Considering the company&#39;s fundamental weaknesses I have outlined in fundamental analysis, I consider AMD&#39;s valuation ratios as unjustified.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/0bd9dc1320756c313a608d9245d3df0d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"296\"/></p><p>SA</p><p></p><p>However, AMD&#39;s valuation ratios have been historically elevated and looking at them might not be enough for a fair view. Therefore, I am running a discounted cash flow (&#34;DCF&#34;) model with a 9.3% WACC. For revenue between FY 2024-2028 I rely on consensus estimates because projected growth rates appear realistic to me. I incorporate a 9.08% TTM levered FCF margin and expect that the FCF margin will expand by one percentage point as the top line grows. For the terminal value (&#34;TV&#34;) calculation, I implement a generous 6% constant growth rate because of the robust AI secular shift in the industry. According to SA, there are 1.62 billion AMD shares outstanding.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/708901c8d52c34a0cfa7492f329cd5e5\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"299\"/></p><p>Calculated by the author</p><p></p><p>Even with an extremely high 6% constant growth rate, AMD&#39;s shares are substantially overvalued. According to my DCF model, the stock&#39;s fair price is around $85. This is 36% lower than the current share price, which means there is a substantial downside potential.</p><h2 id=\"id_1412675954\">Mitigating factors</h2><p>Nvidia releases its Q2 earnings on August 28, and it is the event that will not only affect Nvidia&#39;s stock price. As an undisputed leader in the GPU field, Nvidia is a trendsetter, and its earnings are likely to affect share prices of its closest competitors as well. Should NVDA deliver another staggering quarter, this will likely lead to a new rally in all prominent semiconductor names, including AMD. This will not be a fundamental reason for AMD&#39;s rally, but still, I would better warn readers that such an opportunity exists.</p><p>Another prominent player is semiconductor industry, Intel (INTC) is struggling as it has released weak Q2 report and guidance. Since AMD and Intel are also fierce rivals, if Intel&#39;s struggles continue for longer, it might be good for AMD from the strategic perspective. Gaining market share in semiconductors ex-GPUs (for example, CPUs) might be quite a positive development and catalyst for AMD.</p><h2 id=\"id_4016151496\">Conclusion</h2><p>AMD continues to desperately pursue Nvidia in the AI revolution in GPUs, but it appears that the technological gap is unlikely to narrow in the foreseeable future. The valuation is still very unattractive, especially considering AMD&#39;s weak strategic positioning against its biggest rival.</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>AMD: Ample Room For Further Decline</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAMD: Ample Room For Further Decline\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-08-06 23:18 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4710748-amd-stock-q2-ample-room-for-further-decline><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>AMD stock has declined by 13% in the last three months, with more negatives than positives surrounding the company.AMD's generous premium over its fair value does not seem sustainable, given its ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4710748-amd-stock-q2-ample-room-for-further-decline\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BK4573":"虚拟现实","LU0719512351.SGD":"JPMorgan Funds - US Technology A (acc) SGD","IE00BZ199S13.USD":"BNY MELLON MOBILITY INNOVATION \"B\" (USD) ACC","LU0823421416.USD":"BNP PARIBAS DISRUPTIVE TECHNOLOGY \"C\" (USD) INC","BK4581":"高盛持仓","IE00BMPRXR70.SGD":"Neuberger Berman 5G Connectivity A Acc SGD-H","IE00BMPRXN33.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN 5G CONNECTIVITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0321505439.SGD":"Schroder ISF Global Dividend Maximiser A Acc SGD","LU2360106780.USD":"BGF WORLD TECHNOLOGY \"A4\" (USD) INC","IE00BDRTCR15.USD":"PINEBRIDGE GLOBAL DYNAMIC ASSET ALLOCATION \"ADC\" (USD) INC A","IE0005OL40V9.USD":"JANUS HENDERSON BALANCED \"A6M\" (USD) INC","IE00BK4W5L77.USD":"HSBC GLOBAL FUNDS ICAV US EQUITY INDEX \"HC\" (USD) ACC","IE00BK4W5M84.HKD":"HSBC GLOBAL FUNDS ICAV US EQUITY INDEX \"HC\" (HKD) ACC","IE00BWXC8680.SGD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A5\" (SGD) ACC","LU0061474705.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) GLOBAL DYNAMIC REAL RETURN \"AU\" (USD) ACC","LU0979878070.USD":"FULLERTON LUX FUNDS - ASIA ABSOLUTE ALPHA \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU1852331112.SGD":"Blackrock World Technology Fund A2 SGD-H","BK4532":"文艺复兴科技持仓","BK4592":"伊斯兰概念","LU0198837287.USD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY SICAV - 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AMD delivered its Q2 report recently, which had some positive moments, but I still think that there are more negatives than positives around AMD. There is not much I can say optimistic about the company's segments apart from Data Centers enjoying strong AI momentum. On the other hand, I think that AMD's potential in AI is quite limited as it competes with Nvidia (NVDA), which is miles ahead.The sky-high inventory problem continues mounting as the balance grew by around $350 million sequentially, further increasing risks of inventory impairment and recording multi-billion P&L charges in the foreseeable future. The stock currently trades around 40% cheaper than its March 2024 peaks, but my analysis suggests that valuation is far from being attractive. All these unfavorable factors mean that I am inclined to reiterate a \"Sell\" rating for AMD. The extent of overvaluation, which is 36%, makes me think that there is still a lot of space to fall further. Therefore, it appears to be risky to buy or even hold this falling knife (stock price deteriorated by 6% over the last five trading days).Fundamental analysisAMD released its latest 10-Q report on July 31, and I want to focus on it first. Revenue grew by 8.9% YoY in Q2 2024. Revenue growth was quite uneven across the company's segments. Data Center segment continues capitalizing on massive AI tailwinds as its sales more than doubled YoY in Q2. The segment's growth was mostly driven by higher sales of AMD Instinct GPUs and 4th Gen AMD EPYC CPUs.The Client segment ('PC') also demonstrated strong 50% YoY growth in Q2. On the other hand, I am not as optimistic about the Client segment because comparative figures were quite low. For example, the segment generated $2.2 billion revenue in Q2 2022 meaning that sales still did not recover compared to historical highs.AMD's 10-Q (Q2 2024)Two other segments disappointed significantly, in my opinion. Gaming revenue more than halved due to a decrease in semi-custom revenue. Embedded revenue also decreased sharply on a YoY basis in Q2, as customers continued normalizing their inventory levels.The operating margin improved on a YoY basis from -0.4% to 4.6%. Any improvement in this metric is a good sign, but Q2's operating margin is still far below the company's historical peaks. Sky-high inventory levels are still a big problem weighing on profitability. The problem continues mounting since inventory balance was around $350 million higher sequentially. During the Q2 earnings call, the management explained this increase by the necessity to address spiking demand from data centers. However, nothing was said about $4.5 billion worth of inventory that was accumulated during 2022-2023.With such a warning trend, there is a significant risk AMD's warehouses might become full of obsolete products over these nine quarters because of the rapid pace of innovation in the industry. To understand how deep the inventory problem is for AMD, please look at the below chart. Nvidia generates more than four times higher quarterly revenue, but its inventory levels are comparable to AMD.Data by YChartsAnother bearish indicator is weakening momentum. If we look at AMD's SA Quant Momentum page, we see that the momentum is certainly cooling down. More recent timeframes demonstrate much weaker dynamics compared to older timeframes. To me, this is a clear indication that an unjustified hype around AMD is cooling down.SARecent developments were mostly positive, but it is difficult to consider them as strong catalysts for the stock price. In July, the company announced that it acquires Silo AI to improve its offerings in enterprise AI solutions. The deal size of $665 million does not look significant compared to AMD's scale, therefore at the moment it is difficult to say that benefits or risks are game-changing in this case.Data by YChartsDuring the Computex 2024 event, AMD revealed its roadmap for Instinct accelerators, including the new MI325X accelerator, which is expected to be available by the end of 2024. AMD is well-known for its consistent commitment to innovation and rolling out improvements to its stellar products, but comparisons with Nvidia are inevitable.SAThe company's R&D spending looks incomparable, which puts AMD in a weaker position against Nvidia in terms of innovation. Apart from incomparable TTM free cash flow of these two companies ($2 billion generated by AMD versus $29 billion generated by NVDA), accumulated financial resources also cannot be compared. That said, investors should not forget that AMD competes against a true monster from the financial strength perspective.Compiled by the authorLast but not least, there is a remarkable fact that during this earnings season. Big Tech companies mentioned NVDA and its GPUs much more frequently than they mentioned AMD or any of its products. I have analyzed all the latest earnings transcripts from the biggest and most technologically advanced U.S. companies, and it was eleven NVDA mentions versus only one AMD mention. I think that this fact clearly indicates the positioning of these two semiconductor companies in the AI race, where Nvidia is miles ahead.Valuation analysisBased on the peer analysis of valuation ratios, AMD appears to be one of the most expensive semiconductor stocks now. Its TTM P/E ratio is by far the highest compared to other prominent chip companies, and its forward P/E ratio is more than two times higher compared to Nvidia's. Its forward EV/EBITDA ratio is also extremely high compared to rivals. Considering the company's fundamental weaknesses I have outlined in fundamental analysis, I consider AMD's valuation ratios as unjustified.SAHowever, AMD's valuation ratios have been historically elevated and looking at them might not be enough for a fair view. Therefore, I am running a discounted cash flow (\"DCF\") model with a 9.3% WACC. For revenue between FY 2024-2028 I rely on consensus estimates because projected growth rates appear realistic to me. I incorporate a 9.08% TTM levered FCF margin and expect that the FCF margin will expand by one percentage point as the top line grows. For the terminal value (\"TV\") calculation, I implement a generous 6% constant growth rate because of the robust AI secular shift in the industry. According to SA, there are 1.62 billion AMD shares outstanding.Calculated by the authorEven with an extremely high 6% constant growth rate, AMD's shares are substantially overvalued. According to my DCF model, the stock's fair price is around $85. This is 36% lower than the current share price, which means there is a substantial downside potential.Mitigating factorsNvidia releases its Q2 earnings on August 28, and it is the event that will not only affect Nvidia's stock price. As an undisputed leader in the GPU field, Nvidia is a trendsetter, and its earnings are likely to affect share prices of its closest competitors as well. Should NVDA deliver another staggering quarter, this will likely lead to a new rally in all prominent semiconductor names, including AMD. This will not be a fundamental reason for AMD's rally, but still, I would better warn readers that such an opportunity exists.Another prominent player is semiconductor industry, Intel (INTC) is struggling as it has released weak Q2 report and guidance. Since AMD and Intel are also fierce rivals, if Intel's struggles continue for longer, it might be good for AMD from the strategic perspective. Gaining market share in semiconductors ex-GPUs (for example, CPUs) might be quite a positive development and catalyst for AMD.ConclusionAMD continues to desperately pursue Nvidia in the AI revolution in GPUs, but it appears that the technological gap is unlikely to narrow in the foreseeable future. The valuation is still very unattractive, especially considering AMD's weak strategic positioning against its biggest rival.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":290,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":319003742466224,"gmtCreate":1718895207578,"gmtModify":1718895377243,"author":{"id":"3574807189087941","authorId":"3574807189087941","name":"Icywinddale","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/3bd2fbf9d90e26b2f600b2c5d7c54244","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574807189087941","authorIdStr":"3574807189087941"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[Weak]&nbsp;[Weak]&nbsp;[Weak]&nbsp;&nbsp;","listText":"[Weak]&nbsp;[Weak]&nbsp;[Weak]&nbsp;&nbsp;","text":"[Weak] [Weak] [Weak]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/319003742466224","repostId":"2444055984","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2444055984","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1718894170,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2444055984?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2024-06-20 22:36","market":"sg","language":"en","title":"Nvidia: The Paper Gains Need To Be Converted To Cash","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2444055984","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Nvidia stock has been rising due to the retail investor excitement about the stock split.At the same time, the sales growth is expected to slow, while the valuation multiples point to the bubble.Furth","content":"<html><head></head><body><ul style=\"\"><li><p>Nvidia stock has been rising due to the retail investor excitement about the stock split.</p></li><li><p>At the same time, the sales growth is expected to slow, while the valuation multiples point to the bubble.</p></li><li><p>Further, the macro environment is deteriorating, with recession risks rising, which should negatively affect a cyclical company like Nvidia.</p></li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/e266fe86c663b9c3cdda0b5f8e602dc7\" alt=\"jetcityimage\" title=\"jetcityimage\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"500\"/><span>jetcityimage</span></p><h2 id=\"id_844493039\">NVDA is not a long-term buy and hold</h2><p>Investors who bought Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) stock last year or even recently this year have significant paper gains, as NVDA is up 174% YTD, and an astonishing 3547% over the last 5 years. Nvidia is now $3.33T market cap company, the largest company by market cap in the world.</p><p>Here is the NVDA chart.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/e8db7fdae785a966b2c8b7e35d93a443\" alt=\"Data by YCharts\" title=\"Data by YCharts\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"424\"/><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p>However, NVDA is not a long-term buy and hold stock at this point, as I will explain in this article, and thus the investors who currently own NVDA with hefty paper capital gains have to eventually convert these paper gains into cash - they have to sell Nvidia.</p><p>Otherwise, depending on the timing of the purchase and the average purchase price, these paper gains are likely to significantly shrink, or potentially turn into paper losses.</p><p>Specifically, as I will explain, NVDA stock is likely in a bubble based on valuations, and thus the bubble will eventually burst. It&#39;s correct that NVDA had an amazing sales growth over the last 12 months, but NVDA sales are heavily concentrated in only two customers, the mysterious Customer A and Customer B, and this is a major risk to future sales growth if one of these customers pulls back. Most importantly, the NVDA sales growth is expected to significantly slow down, even not assuming the risk associated with the concentrated sales, and assuming that the broad economy will not enter a recession.</p><p>Thus, NVDA is currently valued as if the growth over the last 12 months will continue indefinitely, which is an irrational assumption. The economy is slowing down, slipping towards a recession, which means that the demand from Customers A and B will slow down, and the broad demand for NVDA chips will also slow down, likely producing negative YOY sales growth over the next few quarters. The semiconductor market is cyclical, and the GenAI theme will prove to be cyclical as well.</p><h2 id=\"id_2378348616\">Technical considerations</h2><p>First, let&#39;s look at the technical considerations, since the bubbles are irrational by definition, dominated by the positive feedback traders or trend followers who buy strictly based on charts.</p><p>On March 8, NVDA had a sharp intraday reversal, which in-fact pointed to the potential top, and the March 8 price was the peak - until the NVDA Q1 earnings announcement and the stock split announcement, which triggered another leg higher.</p><p>The stock split does not have any fundamental significance, and yet, NVDA continued to spike higher after the stock split announcement. The retail investor was particularly excited about the stock split. In my opinion, this is the key marking of the top.</p><p>On March 11th, I wrote that NVDA was potentially topping, based on technical analysis, and assigned the HOLD rating, to evaluate the price pattern. Obviously, March 8 was not the top. The price did correct below the 50dma, but rebounded strongly after the stock split.</p><p>Technically, there is no indication that NVDA is at the top now - the price keeps climbing, as the chart below shows.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/7ce414244ee67aa3c097427efdddfac8\" alt=\"Barchart\" title=\"Barchart\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"350\"/><span>Barchart</span></p><h2 id=\"id_1855740321\">Fundamental considerations</h2><p>With respect to valuation, it&#39;s widely known that NVDA is extremely expensive.</p><ul style=\"\"><li><p>GAAP PE ttm is at 76</p></li><li><p>forward GAAP PE is at 56</p></li><li><p>PS ratio is at 40</p></li></ul><p>These are very expensive valuations. Broadcom (AVGO) is the closest peer, and it similarly overvalued based on PE ratios, but significantly cheaper based on PS ratio at 19, which points that NVDA&#39;s profit margins are unsustainably high.</p><p>In fact, NVDA has EBIT margins of around 60%, which will be difficult to maintain, as the demand for its chips slows and the competition in the sector heats up, and this points to slower earnings growth.</p><p>High valuations can be justified if sales growth is expected to continue to be very high. However, the sales growth is slowing. Here is the fact, NVDA had 18% revenue growth QoQ for FY25 Q1, where the total revenue was $26B. NVDA guides that FY25 Q2 total revenue will be $28B, which is only 7.7% QoQ growth. Thus, the revenue growth is slowing.</p><p>Thus, you have a situation where the profit margins are unsustainably high, and where the revenue growth is slowing. The combination of these two variables is negative for earnings growth.</p><p>In addition, NVDA has a very concentrated sales with only two customers representing 24% of the total revenue. Here is the warning from the recent NVDA 10Q statement:</p><blockquote><p>Sales to one direct customer, Customer A, represented 13% of total revenue and sales to a second direct customer, Customer B, represented 11% of total revenue for the first quarter of fiscal year 2025, both of which were attributable to the Compute &amp; Networking segment. There was no direct customer that represented 10% or more of total revenue for the first quarter of fiscal year 2024.</p></blockquote><h2 id=\"id_3506160230\">Macro considerations</h2><p>None of the assumptions above assumes that the US economy could significantly slow, and potentially slip into a recession. The semiconductor industry is highly cyclical and the potential recession could have a negative effect on NVDA sales.</p><p>Based on the recent data, the US economy is slowing, and slipping towards a recession. Yet, NVDA stock keeps climbing.</p><h2 id=\"id_3271725306\">Implications</h2><p>Here are the facts.</p><ul style=\"\"><li><p>The NVDA stock is very expensive, based on the valuation multiples.</p></li><li><p>Yet, the revenue growth rate is slowing.</p></li><li><p>The macro environment is deteriorating, the recession risks are rising.</p></li></ul><p>In this situation, where the macro risks and the firm-specific risks are rising, while the price is also rising fueled by the retail investor excitement about the stock split, it makes sense to consider converting the paper gains to cash.</p><p>Now, bear in mind that trading around the bubble is very difficult. Isaac Newton got burned trading around the South Sea Bubble. He took the profit in the South Sea stock, but the stock kept climbing, so he got back near the top. As the price kept falling, he kept buying the &#34;dip&#34;, yet the price kept falling. He lost most of his fortune and proclaimed:</p><blockquote><p>I can calculate the motions of the heavenly bodies, but not the madness of the people.</p></blockquote></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Nvidia: The Paper Gains Need To Be Converted To Cash</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNvidia: The Paper Gains Need To Be Converted To Cash\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-06-20 22:36 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4699997-nvidia-the-paper-gains-need-to-be-converted-to-cash><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Nvidia stock has been rising due to the retail investor excitement about the stock split.At the same time, the sales growth is expected to slow, while the valuation multiples point to the bubble....</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4699997-nvidia-the-paper-gains-need-to-be-converted-to-cash\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"IE00B19Z9Z06.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - US Aggressive Growth A Acc USD","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","LU0061474705.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) GLOBAL DYNAMIC REAL RETURN \"AU\" (USD) ACC","LU0466842654.USD":"HSBC ISLAMIC GLOBAL EQUITY INDEX \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0097036916.USD":"贝莱德美国增长A2 USD","LU0979878070.USD":"FULLERTON LUX FUNDS - ASIA ABSOLUTE ALPHA \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU1670711040.USD":"M&G (LUX) GLOBAL DIVIDEND \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE00BD6J9T35.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN NEXT GENERATION MOBILITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE00B3M56506.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN EMERGING MARKETS EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0861579265.USD":"联博低波幅策略股票基金A","LU0965509283.SGD":"AB LOW VOLATILITY EQUITY PORTFOLIO \"AD\" (SGDHDG) INC","BK4532":"文艺复兴科技持仓","LU0444971666.USD":"天利全球科技基金","BK4592":"伊斯兰概念","BK4554":"元宇宙及AR概念","IE00BFSS8Q28.SGD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Inc SGD-H","LU0061475181.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) AMERICAN \"AU\" (USD) ACC","IE0034235188.USD":"PINEBRIDGE GLOBAL FOCUS EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","NVDA":"英伟达","LU1551013425.SGD":"Allianz Income and Growth Cl AMg2 DIS H2-SGD","IE0009356076.USD":"JANUS HENDERSON GLOBAL TECHNOLOGY AND INNOVATION \"A2\" (USD) ACC","BK4575":"芯片概念","BK4566":"资本集团","LU0289739343.SGD":"SUSTAINABLE GLOBAL THEMATIC PORTFOLIO \"A\" (SGD) ACC","IE00BLSP4239.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - Tactical Dividend Income A Mdis USD Plus","LU0943347566.SGD":"安联收益及增长平衡基金AM H2-SGD","LU0109391861.USD":"富兰克林美国机遇基金A Acc","BK4543":"AI","LU0234570918.USD":"高盛全球核心股票组合Acc Close","LU0238689110.USD":"贝莱德环球动力股票基金","LU0053666078.USD":"摩根大通基金-美国股票A（离岸）美元","IE00BJJMRX11.SGD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Acc SGD","LU0072462426.USD":"贝莱德全球配置 A2","BK4141":"半导体产品","BK4588":"碎股","BK4503":"景林资产持仓","LU0056508442.USD":"贝莱德世界科技基金A2","LU0080751232.USD":"富达环球多元动力基金A","IE00B1XK9C88.USD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0353189680.USD":"富国美国全盘成长基金Cl A Acc","LU1242518857.USD":"FULLERTON LUX FUNDS - ASIA ABSOLUTE ALPHA \"I\" (USD) ACC","LU0061474960.USD":"天利环球焦点基金AU Acc","IE00BBT3K403.USD":"LEGG MASON CLEARBRIDGE TACTICAL DIVIDEND INCOME \"A(USD) ACC","BK4512":"苹果概念","LU0820561909.HKD":"ALLIANZ INCOME AND GROWTH \"AM\" (HKD) INC","BK4581":"高盛持仓","IE00BMPRXN33.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN 5G CONNECTIVITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE00B19Z9P08.USD":"LEGG MASON CLEARBRIDGE US AGGRESSIVE GROWTH \"A\" (USD) INC","LU0320765646.SGD":"FTIF - Franklin Income A MDIS SGD-H1"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4699997-nvidia-the-paper-gains-need-to-be-converted-to-cash","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"2444055984","content_text":"Nvidia stock has been rising due to the retail investor excitement about the stock split.At the same time, the sales growth is expected to slow, while the valuation multiples point to the bubble.Further, the macro environment is deteriorating, with recession risks rising, which should negatively affect a cyclical company like Nvidia.jetcityimageNVDA is not a long-term buy and holdInvestors who bought Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) stock last year or even recently this year have significant paper gains, as NVDA is up 174% YTD, and an astonishing 3547% over the last 5 years. Nvidia is now $3.33T market cap company, the largest company by market cap in the world.Here is the NVDA chart.Data by YChartsHowever, NVDA is not a long-term buy and hold stock at this point, as I will explain in this article, and thus the investors who currently own NVDA with hefty paper capital gains have to eventually convert these paper gains into cash - they have to sell Nvidia.Otherwise, depending on the timing of the purchase and the average purchase price, these paper gains are likely to significantly shrink, or potentially turn into paper losses.Specifically, as I will explain, NVDA stock is likely in a bubble based on valuations, and thus the bubble will eventually burst. It's correct that NVDA had an amazing sales growth over the last 12 months, but NVDA sales are heavily concentrated in only two customers, the mysterious Customer A and Customer B, and this is a major risk to future sales growth if one of these customers pulls back. Most importantly, the NVDA sales growth is expected to significantly slow down, even not assuming the risk associated with the concentrated sales, and assuming that the broad economy will not enter a recession.Thus, NVDA is currently valued as if the growth over the last 12 months will continue indefinitely, which is an irrational assumption. The economy is slowing down, slipping towards a recession, which means that the demand from Customers A and B will slow down, and the broad demand for NVDA chips will also slow down, likely producing negative YOY sales growth over the next few quarters. The semiconductor market is cyclical, and the GenAI theme will prove to be cyclical as well.Technical considerationsFirst, let's look at the technical considerations, since the bubbles are irrational by definition, dominated by the positive feedback traders or trend followers who buy strictly based on charts.On March 8, NVDA had a sharp intraday reversal, which in-fact pointed to the potential top, and the March 8 price was the peak - until the NVDA Q1 earnings announcement and the stock split announcement, which triggered another leg higher.The stock split does not have any fundamental significance, and yet, NVDA continued to spike higher after the stock split announcement. The retail investor was particularly excited about the stock split. In my opinion, this is the key marking of the top.On March 11th, I wrote that NVDA was potentially topping, based on technical analysis, and assigned the HOLD rating, to evaluate the price pattern. Obviously, March 8 was not the top. The price did correct below the 50dma, but rebounded strongly after the stock split.Technically, there is no indication that NVDA is at the top now - the price keeps climbing, as the chart below shows.BarchartFundamental considerationsWith respect to valuation, it's widely known that NVDA is extremely expensive.GAAP PE ttm is at 76forward GAAP PE is at 56PS ratio is at 40These are very expensive valuations. Broadcom (AVGO) is the closest peer, and it similarly overvalued based on PE ratios, but significantly cheaper based on PS ratio at 19, which points that NVDA's profit margins are unsustainably high.In fact, NVDA has EBIT margins of around 60%, which will be difficult to maintain, as the demand for its chips slows and the competition in the sector heats up, and this points to slower earnings growth.High valuations can be justified if sales growth is expected to continue to be very high. However, the sales growth is slowing. Here is the fact, NVDA had 18% revenue growth QoQ for FY25 Q1, where the total revenue was $26B. NVDA guides that FY25 Q2 total revenue will be $28B, which is only 7.7% QoQ growth. Thus, the revenue growth is slowing.Thus, you have a situation where the profit margins are unsustainably high, and where the revenue growth is slowing. The combination of these two variables is negative for earnings growth.In addition, NVDA has a very concentrated sales with only two customers representing 24% of the total revenue. Here is the warning from the recent NVDA 10Q statement:Sales to one direct customer, Customer A, represented 13% of total revenue and sales to a second direct customer, Customer B, represented 11% of total revenue for the first quarter of fiscal year 2025, both of which were attributable to the Compute & Networking segment. There was no direct customer that represented 10% or more of total revenue for the first quarter of fiscal year 2024.Macro considerationsNone of the assumptions above assumes that the US economy could significantly slow, and potentially slip into a recession. The semiconductor industry is highly cyclical and the potential recession could have a negative effect on NVDA sales.Based on the recent data, the US economy is slowing, and slipping towards a recession. Yet, NVDA stock keeps climbing.ImplicationsHere are the facts.The NVDA stock is very expensive, based on the valuation multiples.Yet, the revenue growth rate is slowing.The macro environment is deteriorating, the recession risks are rising.In this situation, where the macro risks and the firm-specific risks are rising, while the price is also rising fueled by the retail investor excitement about the stock split, it makes sense to consider converting the paper gains to cash.Now, bear in mind that trading around the bubble is very difficult. Isaac Newton got burned trading around the South Sea Bubble. He took the profit in the South Sea stock, but the stock kept climbing, so he got back near the top. As the price kept falling, he kept buying the \"dip\", yet the price kept falling. He lost most of his fortune and proclaimed:I can calculate the motions of the heavenly bodies, but not the madness of the people.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":318,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":343990447882384,"gmtCreate":1725006664179,"gmtModify":1725006667888,"author":{"id":"3574807189087941","authorId":"3574807189087941","name":"Icywinddale","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/3bd2fbf9d90e26b2f600b2c5d7c54244","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574807189087941","authorIdStr":"3574807189087941"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[Weak]&nbsp; [Weak]&nbsp; [Weak]&nbsp;&nbsp;","listText":"[Weak]&nbsp; [Weak]&nbsp; [Weak]&nbsp;&nbsp;","text":"[Weak] [Weak] [Weak]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/343990447882384","repostId":"2463213734","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2463213734","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1724996367,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2463213734?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2024-08-30 13:39","market":"nz","language":"en","title":"Advanced Micro Devices: ZT Acquisition Is Bad News - Still Sell","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2463213734","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. announced its $4.9B acquisition of ZT Systems as a strategic move in the AI market, but we see things differently.We think AMD holds a higher risk profile after the acquis","content":"<html><head></head><body><ul style=\"\"><li><p>Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. announced its $4.9B acquisition of ZT Systems as a strategic move in the AI market, but we see things differently.</p></li><li><p>We think AMD holds a higher risk profile after the acquisition inflated AI-related growth expectations further with little fundamental basis.</p></li><li><p>We&#39;re also seeing multiple expansions for AMD, making the stock expensive relative to semi-peers and increasing the risk of a price correction.</p></li><li><p>Investor confidence in AMD&#39;s AI growth is misplaced; the acquisition will likely only delay a bigger (disappointing) confrontation between AMD&#39;s real AI capabilities and Wall Street&#39;s AI expectations.</p></li></ul><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/54d72c9c9a3e29350ec8e0b6945b60ae\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"304\"/></p><p>Sunny</p><p></p><p><strong>Advanced Micro Devices, Inc.</strong> (NASDAQ:AMD) announced its acquisition of ZT Systems, a privately held server builder, for $4.9B earlier this month. AMD CEO Lisa Su emphasized in an interview with Reuters that &#34;AI systems are our number one strategic priority.&#34; We maintain our sell rating on AMD and recommend investors trim on the mini rally created by the acquisition news.</p><p>The market is taking the acquisition as a positive for AMD in its uphill battle to compete with Wall Street&#39;s AI darling, NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA). We don&#39;t think this is the case. In fact, we think the acquisition actually further proves that our concerns about AMD have not been misplaced.</p><p>The devil is in the details, so let&#39;s discuss them.</p><p>The company announced news of its acquisition on August 19th, intending to close the $4.9B deal in mid-2025 by paying 75% in cash and the rest in stock in one of the biggest IT deals of the year. ZT generates around $10B in annual revenue, with the bulk of that coming from its manufacturing unit. AMD intends to sell that off once the deal is over, so as not to put itself in a position to compete with the likes of Super Micro Computer, Inc. (SMCI) and Dell Technologies Inc. (DELL).</p><p>With that in mind, this acquisition really comes down to AMD&#39;s access to ZT engineers to &#34;allow AMD to more quickly test and roll out its latest AI graphics processing units (GPUs) at the scale of cloud computing giants such as Microsoft.&#34; This doesn&#39;t seem too surprising considering the rumors about Microsoft&#39;s dissatisfaction with AMD&#39;s AI GPU products and software that began to stir earlier this year; AMD needs the help. ZT has around 2,5000 employees, of which AMD will keep 1,000 on hand. CEO Lisa Su further confirmed this rosy perspective of the acquisition, noting,</p><blockquote><p>&#34;ZT adds world-class systems design and rack-scale solutions expertise that will significantly strengthen our data center AI systems and customer enablement capabilities.&#34;</p></blockquote><p>At face value, AMD is paying $4.9B for a few hundred engineers.</p><p>We think this is a strategic move by AMD, but not for the reasons the market expects, i.e., not for the technological advantage ZT could provide but to mitigate high AI expectations. ZT is a customer of AMD, and, in turn, ZT is sitting on AMD AI GPU inventory that they cannot get off their hands. That would cause them to stop placing orders at the company and signal the weaker demand for AMD&#39;s products to the entire market. Why does ZT have AMD inventory that they cannot get rid of? Simply put customers are continuing to choose the industry go-to, Nvidia, over AMD since there is no more shortage.</p><p>Industry research confirms that lead times for Nvidia&#39;s H100 are now nonexistent. We believe this was a two-bird, one-stone strategic acquisition for AMD to buy ZT along with its inventory and simultaneously pitch it as a step forward in their seemingly losing race against NVDA. This is a win-win for AMD and ZT; AMD gets ahead of the bad news of the inventory pile-up that would visibly show AMD is lagging Wall Street&#39;s expectations, and ZT gets a bunch of inventory off its hands and $4.9B.</p><p>What&#39;s important to keep in mind here is that AMD is guiding AI GPU sales to exceed $4.5B this year, revised up from $4B this quarter but still substantially lower than whisper numbers expecting $6B in sales. This means AMD has big shoes to fill in terms of guidance. This acquisition makes it look like they&#39;re on track when it is only prolonging a disappointment until mid-next year because AMD will likely struggle to meet, let alone beat, whisper numbers.</p><p>The importance of whisper numbers in the AI game cannot be emphasized enough. Part of why NVDA&#39;s stock is dropping today is because the company only came in line with whisper numbers on July quarter sales and guidance reported in 2Q24 results. It achieved $30B in sales in line with whisper numbers for $30B and guiding for $32.5B, at the lower end range of the whisper numbers. We don&#39;t see a material upside surprise to consensus numbers for AMD&#39;s AI business this year. So, we continue to believe the stock&#39;s valuation and market expectations put it at a higher risk profile to underperform, even more so now after news of the acquisition.</p><h2 id=\"id_675990054\">Valuation &amp; Word on Wall Street</h2><p>In our opinion, AMD is unjustifiably expensive relative to the peer group. We&#39;ve seen multiple expansion for AMD on P/E and EV/Sales ratios since our last note, which was in early August. On a P/E basis, the stock is now trading at 42.9x C2024 compared to a previous ratio of 38.9x and a group average of 33.1x. Looking at the EV/Sales ratio, we see more of the same. The stock is trading at 9.4x EV/C2024 Sales compared to an old ratio of 8.2x and a group average of 7.7x.</p><p>The higher P/E and EV/Sales ratios over the past month showcase a couple of things. The biggest one is that AMD is becoming more expensive relative to its earnings and sales, as well as its historical and industry averages. This poses a big risk for AMD because an increase in these ratios without corresponding earnings/sales growth means the stock is overvalued. Thus, it is at risk of a price correction when AMD fails to show material upside to Wall Street&#39;s high AI expectations. We think investor confidence in AMD&#39;s future AI growth potential increased in light of the ZT acquisition, although there is little fundamental basis for this engineer acquisition boosting top-line growth. It&#39;s more of a band-aid solution to reignite investor faith in the company&#39;s growth trajectory as rival NVDA strides ahead.</p><p>The following chart outlines AMD&#39;s valuation against the peer group average.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/9e7f7a8672b56054338755fcd4ee354b\" tg-width=\"975\" tg-height=\"391\"/></p><p>TechStockPros</p><p></p><p>Wall Street&#39;s sentiment on AMD remains unchanged since our downgrade note earlier this month. Of the 50 analysts covering the stock, 41 are buy-rated, and the remaining are hold-rated. Interestingly, the potential upside from sell-side price targets is now lower than it was. The stock is priced at $144 per share with a median sell-side price target of $190 and a mean of $187 with a potential 28-30% upside.</p><p>The following charts outline AMD&#39;s sell-side ratings and price targets.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/a04d8542dce8de62e27e9bf1cc376641\" tg-width=\"491\" tg-height=\"273\"/></p><p>TechStockPros</p><p></p><h2 id=\"id_3652890362\">What to do with the stock</h2><p>We remain sell-rated on AMD and recommend investors count profits and exit the stock. Management is guiding for total sales in Q3 to grow 15% Q/Q to $6.7B, slightly beating consensus at $6.61B for the first time in five quarters. This is mainly supported by faster Q/Q growth in its data center sales on the MI300X AI GPU ramp. We think the market is getting ahead of itself with AI-related sales expectations for AMD, and the acquisition only made the hype worse.</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Advanced Micro Devices: ZT Acquisition Is Bad News - Still Sell</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAdvanced Micro Devices: ZT Acquisition Is Bad News - Still Sell\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-08-30 13:39 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4718002-advanced-micro-devices-zt-acquisition-is-bad-news-still-sell><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. announced its $4.9B acquisition of ZT Systems as a strategic move in the AI market, but we see things differently.We think AMD holds a higher risk profile after the ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4718002-advanced-micro-devices-zt-acquisition-is-bad-news-still-sell\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"IE000W1ABFV2.USD":"PIMCO BALANCED INCOME AND GROWTH \"R\" (USD) INC","LU0053671581.USD":"摩根大通美国小盘成长股 A(dist)","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","BK4504":"桥水持仓","BK4543":"AI","IE00B19Z9505.USD":"美盛-美国大盘成长股A Acc","IE00B3M56506.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN EMERGING MARKETS EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4503":"景林资产持仓","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","IE000KEQY171.SGD":"PIMCO BALANCED INCOME AND GROWTH \"M\" (SGDHDG) INC","BK4588":"碎股","BK4551":"寇图资本持仓","BK4529":"IDC概念","LU1951200564.SGD":"Natixis Thematics AI & Robotics Fund R/A SGD","IE00B19Z8W00.USD":"FTGF CLEARBRIDGE US LARGE CAP GROWTH \"A\" INC","IE00BKVL7J92.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - US Equity Sustainability Leaders A Acc USD","LU0889565833.HKD":"FRANKLIN TECHNOLOGY \"A\" (HKD) ACC","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","IE00B4JS1V06.HKD":"JANUS HENDERSON BALANCED \"A2\" (HKD) ACC","BK4587":"ChatGPT概念","LU1923623000.USD":"Natixis Thematics AI & Robotics Fund R/A USD","LU1316542783.SGD":"Janus Henderson Horizon Global Technology Leaders A2 SGD","IE0004086264.USD":"BNY MELLON GLOBAL OPPORTUNITIES \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4549":"软银资本持仓","LU1988902786.USD":"FULLERTON LUX FUNDS GLOBAL ABSOLUTE ALPHA \"I\" (USD) ACC","LU0079474960.USD":"联博美国增长基金A","LU0072462426.USD":"贝莱德全球配置 A2","LU0053666078.USD":"摩根大通基金-美国股票A（离岸）美元","LU0642271901.SGD":"Janus Henderson Horizon Global Technology Leaders A2 SGD-H","LU2360106780.USD":"BGF WORLD TECHNOLOGY \"A4\" (USD) INC","GB00BDT5M118.USD":"天利环球扩展Alpha基金A Acc","LU0823421333.USD":"BNP PARIBAS DISRUPTIVE TECHNOLOGY \"C\" (USD) ACC","LU0719512351.SGD":"JPMorgan Funds - US Technology A (acc) SGD","LU0056508442.USD":"贝莱德世界科技基金A2","LU0823421416.USD":"BNP PARIBAS DISRUPTIVE TECHNOLOGY \"C\" (USD) INC","LU1803068979.SGD":"FTIF - Franklin Technology A (acc) SGD-H1","IE00BZ199S13.USD":"BNY MELLON MOBILITY INNOVATION \"B\" (USD) ACC","GB00B4LPDJ14.GBP":"FUNDSMITH EQUITY \"R\" (GBP) ACC","IE00BJJMRY28.SGD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Inc SGD","IE00BJLML261.HKD":"HSBC GLOBAL EQUITY INDEX \"HCH\" (HKD) ACC","IE00BKDWB100.SGD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A5H\" (SGDHDG) ACC","BK4528":"SaaS概念","AMD":"美国超微公司"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4718002-advanced-micro-devices-zt-acquisition-is-bad-news-still-sell","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"2463213734","content_text":"Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. announced its $4.9B acquisition of ZT Systems as a strategic move in the AI market, but we see things differently.We think AMD holds a higher risk profile after the acquisition inflated AI-related growth expectations further with little fundamental basis.We're also seeing multiple expansions for AMD, making the stock expensive relative to semi-peers and increasing the risk of a price correction.Investor confidence in AMD's AI growth is misplaced; the acquisition will likely only delay a bigger (disappointing) confrontation between AMD's real AI capabilities and Wall Street's AI expectations.SunnyAdvanced Micro Devices, Inc. (NASDAQ:AMD) announced its acquisition of ZT Systems, a privately held server builder, for $4.9B earlier this month. AMD CEO Lisa Su emphasized in an interview with Reuters that \"AI systems are our number one strategic priority.\" We maintain our sell rating on AMD and recommend investors trim on the mini rally created by the acquisition news.The market is taking the acquisition as a positive for AMD in its uphill battle to compete with Wall Street's AI darling, NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA). We don't think this is the case. In fact, we think the acquisition actually further proves that our concerns about AMD have not been misplaced.The devil is in the details, so let's discuss them.The company announced news of its acquisition on August 19th, intending to close the $4.9B deal in mid-2025 by paying 75% in cash and the rest in stock in one of the biggest IT deals of the year. ZT generates around $10B in annual revenue, with the bulk of that coming from its manufacturing unit. AMD intends to sell that off once the deal is over, so as not to put itself in a position to compete with the likes of Super Micro Computer, Inc. (SMCI) and Dell Technologies Inc. (DELL).With that in mind, this acquisition really comes down to AMD's access to ZT engineers to \"allow AMD to more quickly test and roll out its latest AI graphics processing units (GPUs) at the scale of cloud computing giants such as Microsoft.\" This doesn't seem too surprising considering the rumors about Microsoft's dissatisfaction with AMD's AI GPU products and software that began to stir earlier this year; AMD needs the help. ZT has around 2,5000 employees, of which AMD will keep 1,000 on hand. CEO Lisa Su further confirmed this rosy perspective of the acquisition, noting,\"ZT adds world-class systems design and rack-scale solutions expertise that will significantly strengthen our data center AI systems and customer enablement capabilities.\"At face value, AMD is paying $4.9B for a few hundred engineers.We think this is a strategic move by AMD, but not for the reasons the market expects, i.e., not for the technological advantage ZT could provide but to mitigate high AI expectations. ZT is a customer of AMD, and, in turn, ZT is sitting on AMD AI GPU inventory that they cannot get off their hands. That would cause them to stop placing orders at the company and signal the weaker demand for AMD's products to the entire market. Why does ZT have AMD inventory that they cannot get rid of? Simply put customers are continuing to choose the industry go-to, Nvidia, over AMD since there is no more shortage.Industry research confirms that lead times for Nvidia's H100 are now nonexistent. We believe this was a two-bird, one-stone strategic acquisition for AMD to buy ZT along with its inventory and simultaneously pitch it as a step forward in their seemingly losing race against NVDA. This is a win-win for AMD and ZT; AMD gets ahead of the bad news of the inventory pile-up that would visibly show AMD is lagging Wall Street's expectations, and ZT gets a bunch of inventory off its hands and $4.9B.What's important to keep in mind here is that AMD is guiding AI GPU sales to exceed $4.5B this year, revised up from $4B this quarter but still substantially lower than whisper numbers expecting $6B in sales. This means AMD has big shoes to fill in terms of guidance. This acquisition makes it look like they're on track when it is only prolonging a disappointment until mid-next year because AMD will likely struggle to meet, let alone beat, whisper numbers.The importance of whisper numbers in the AI game cannot be emphasized enough. Part of why NVDA's stock is dropping today is because the company only came in line with whisper numbers on July quarter sales and guidance reported in 2Q24 results. It achieved $30B in sales in line with whisper numbers for $30B and guiding for $32.5B, at the lower end range of the whisper numbers. We don't see a material upside surprise to consensus numbers for AMD's AI business this year. So, we continue to believe the stock's valuation and market expectations put it at a higher risk profile to underperform, even more so now after news of the acquisition.Valuation & Word on Wall StreetIn our opinion, AMD is unjustifiably expensive relative to the peer group. We've seen multiple expansion for AMD on P/E and EV/Sales ratios since our last note, which was in early August. On a P/E basis, the stock is now trading at 42.9x C2024 compared to a previous ratio of 38.9x and a group average of 33.1x. Looking at the EV/Sales ratio, we see more of the same. The stock is trading at 9.4x EV/C2024 Sales compared to an old ratio of 8.2x and a group average of 7.7x.The higher P/E and EV/Sales ratios over the past month showcase a couple of things. The biggest one is that AMD is becoming more expensive relative to its earnings and sales, as well as its historical and industry averages. This poses a big risk for AMD because an increase in these ratios without corresponding earnings/sales growth means the stock is overvalued. Thus, it is at risk of a price correction when AMD fails to show material upside to Wall Street's high AI expectations. We think investor confidence in AMD's future AI growth potential increased in light of the ZT acquisition, although there is little fundamental basis for this engineer acquisition boosting top-line growth. It's more of a band-aid solution to reignite investor faith in the company's growth trajectory as rival NVDA strides ahead.The following chart outlines AMD's valuation against the peer group average.TechStockProsWall Street's sentiment on AMD remains unchanged since our downgrade note earlier this month. Of the 50 analysts covering the stock, 41 are buy-rated, and the remaining are hold-rated. Interestingly, the potential upside from sell-side price targets is now lower than it was. The stock is priced at $144 per share with a median sell-side price target of $190 and a mean of $187 with a potential 28-30% upside.The following charts outline AMD's sell-side ratings and price targets.TechStockProsWhat to do with the stockWe remain sell-rated on AMD and recommend investors count profits and exit the stock. Management is guiding for total sales in Q3 to grow 15% Q/Q to $6.7B, slightly beating consensus at $6.61B for the first time in five quarters. This is mainly supported by faster Q/Q growth in its data center sales on the MI300X AI GPU ramp. We think the market is getting ahead of itself with AI-related sales expectations for AMD, and the acquisition only made the hype worse.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":334,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":334136701460720,"gmtCreate":1722609643312,"gmtModify":1722609647035,"author":{"id":"3574807189087941","authorId":"3574807189087941","name":"Icywinddale","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/3bd2fbf9d90e26b2f600b2c5d7c54244","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574807189087941","authorIdStr":"3574807189087941"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nonsense","listText":"Nonsense","text":"Nonsense","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/334136701460720","repostId":"2456286685","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2456286685","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1722609000,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2456286685?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2024-08-02 22:30","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Nvidia Is in a Bubble and the AI Theme Is “Overhyped” - Elliott Management","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2456286685","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Hedge fund Elliott Management said that Nvidia is in a bubble as the artificial intelligence theme pushing its share price is overhyped.In a letter to its clients published by The Financial Times, Ell","content":"<html><head></head><body><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Hedge fund Elliott Management said that Nvidia is in a bubble as the artificial intelligence theme pushing its share price is overhyped.</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">In a letter to its clients published by The Financial Times, Elliott Management said that the technology mega-caps, such as Nidia, are in a “bubble land” and that the hedge fund is skeptical that these companies will continue to purchase Nvidia’s (NVDA) graphic processing units in such huge volumes.</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Elliot said that many AI applications are not ready for “prime time” and that many of the expected uses are “never going to be cost-efficient; are never going to actually work right” and that they “will take up too much energy or will prove to be untrustworthy.”</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">The chipmaker stocks have suffered some losses due to concerns about heavy -- tens of billions of dollars -- AI spending for infrastructure.</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Nvidia Corp. is down 4.8% today so far, after a 110% year-to-date gain. The stock is also down 9.23% from a month ago. Nvidia briefly became the world&#39;s largest company with a market cap of more than $3.3T.</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Nvidia Is in a Bubble and the AI Theme Is “Overhyped” - Elliott Management</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNvidia Is in a Bubble and the AI Theme Is “Overhyped” - Elliott Management\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-08-02 22:30 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/news/4133230-nvidia-is-in-a-bubble-and-the-ai-theme-is-overhyped-elliott-management><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Hedge fund Elliott Management said that Nvidia is in a bubble as the artificial intelligence theme pushing its share price is overhyped.In a letter to its clients published by The Financial Times, ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/news/4133230-nvidia-is-in-a-bubble-and-the-ai-theme-is-overhyped-elliott-management\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/news/4133230-nvidia-is-in-a-bubble-and-the-ai-theme-is-overhyped-elliott-management","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"2456286685","content_text":"Hedge fund Elliott Management said that Nvidia is in a bubble as the artificial intelligence theme pushing its share price is overhyped.In a letter to its clients published by The Financial Times, Elliott Management said that the technology mega-caps, such as Nidia, are in a “bubble land” and that the hedge fund is skeptical that these companies will continue to purchase Nvidia’s (NVDA) graphic processing units in such huge volumes.Elliot said that many AI applications are not ready for “prime time” and that many of the expected uses are “never going to be cost-efficient; are never going to actually work right” and that they “will take up too much energy or will prove to be untrustworthy.”The chipmaker stocks have suffered some losses due to concerns about heavy -- tens of billions of dollars -- AI spending for infrastructure.Nvidia Corp. is down 4.8% today so far, after a 110% year-to-date gain. The stock is also down 9.23% from a month ago. Nvidia briefly became the world's largest company with a market cap of more than $3.3T.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":327,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":373241717743784,"gmtCreate":1732152928778,"gmtModify":1732152932348,"author":{"id":"3574807189087941","authorId":"3574807189087941","name":"Icywinddale","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/3bd2fbf9d90e26b2f600b2c5d7c54244","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574807189087941","authorIdStr":"3574807189087941"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"nonsense","listText":"nonsense","text":"nonsense","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/373241717743784","repostId":"2485567109","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2485567109","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1732149460,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2485567109?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2024-11-21 08:37","market":"hk","language":"en","title":"Nvidia: Triple Play Not Enough To Justify $3.6T Valuation (Rating Downgrade)","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2485567109","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Seeking AlphaAnd, with the AI spending boom still in full swing, Nvidia's upcoming Q3 2024 report on 20th November is likely to be robust.  How Did Nvidia Fare In Q3 FY2025?With Nvidia reporting $35.1B in revenues  and $0.81 in normalized EPS  for Q3 FY2025, I think it is fair to conclude that the semiconductor behemoth eased past consensus street estimates on top and bottom-line estimates.   Nvidia Investor Relations In Jensen Huang's words -   The age of AI is in full steam, propelling a global shift to NVIDIA computing. Demand for Hopper and anticipation for Blackwell — in full production — are incredible as foundation model makers scale pretraining, post-training and inference. AI is trans","content":"<html><body><ul><li>NVIDIA Corporation surpassed Q3 FY2025 expectations with $35.1B in revenue and $0.81 EPS, driven by strong Data Center segment performance.</li><li>Despite robust results, concerns linger over supply constraints for Hopper and Blackwell GPUs, and ongoing gross margin contraction.</li><li>Nvidia's stock remains overvalued at $145 per share, with a 5-year expected CAGR of ~3.4%, falling short of my investment hurdle rate.</li></ul><p><figure><picture> <img fetchpriority=\"high\" height=\"1024px\" sizes=\"(max-width: 768px) calc(100vw - 36px), (max-width: 1024px) calc(100vw - 132px), (max-width: 1200px) calc(66.6vw - 72px), 600px\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1412721464/image_1412721464.jpg?io=getty-c-w750\" srcset=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1412721464/image_1412721464.jpg?io=getty-c-w1536 1536w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1412721464/image_1412721464.jpg?io=getty-c-w1280 1280w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1412721464/image_1412721464.jpg?io=getty-c-w1080 1080w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1412721464/image_1412721464.jpg?io=getty-c-w750 750w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1412721464/image_1412721464.jpg?io=getty-c-w640 640w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1412721464/image_1412721464.jpg?io=getty-c-w480 480w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1412721464/image_1412721464.jpg?io=getty-c-w320 320w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1412721464/image_1412721464.jpg?io=getty-c-w240 240w\" width=\"1536px\"/> </picture><figcaption> <p>BING-JHEN HONG</p></figcaption></figure></p> <div></div> <h2>Introduction</h2> <p>In my article “Magnificent 7 Are Alive And Well, But A Rest Is Inevitable,” I foresaw a robust Q3 FY2025 report from NVIDIA Corporation (<span>NASDAQ:NVDA</span>) (<span>NEOE:NVDA:CA</span>):</p> <blockquote> <p><em>Over the past two to three decades, \"Mag-7\" tech conglomerates have continuously<span> delivered disruptive innovation and proven themselves to be growth compounding engines. Today, each of these businesses rake in annual revenues of more than $100B; however, scale isn't holding back growth due to past re-investments. Now, the capital allocation at \"Mag-7\" companies has undoubtedly shifted towards capital return in recent years, aggressive re-investments continue - with CAPEX to Revenue for this group ranging from 10-20% [Apple is an exception] and R&amp;D to Revenue ranging from 5-30%.</span></em></p> <figure contenteditable=\"false\"><picture> <img contenteditable=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2024/11/14/saupload_059d42c5038af5c3e95298f0e1393aff.png\"/> </picture><figcaption><p><span>YCharts</span></p></figcaption></figure><figure contenteditable=\"false\"><picture> <img contenteditable=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2024/11/14/saupload_5feb35eba86ed72e76dbc2132999500c.png\"/> </picture><figcaption><p><span>YCharts</span></p></figcaption></figure><p><em>As you may know, a huge chunk of this big tech CAPEX spending is going towards GenAI infrastructure - GPUs and long-lived real estate leases, especially in the case of cloud infrastructure providers, i.e., Amazon [AWS], Alphabet [Google Cloud Platform], and Microsoft [Azure]. And based on management commentary, this AI rush is set to continue in 2025:</em></p> <ul><li><em>Hyperscaler capex forecasts to hit $300B in 2025: Morgan Stanley</em></li></ul> <p><em>In addition to unlocking GenAI capabilities for other organizations, these tech giants are using these resources to improve their existing products and services. For example, Alphabet and Microsoft are redefining the Search market with GenAI-powered user experiences, Meta is using Gen-AI across its Family of Apps to boost ad performance and spending billions on Reality Labs to build the next big computing platform, and Tesla is attempting to solve vehicle autonomy using a cluster of 100,000+ GPUs.</em></p> <p><em>Now, given its dominant positioning in the GPU market, Nvidia is receiving almost all of this CAPEX spending as revenue!</em></p> <figure contenteditable=\"false\"><picture> <span><img contenteditable=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2024/11/14/51572009-17316338825443873.png\"/></span> </picture><figcaption><p><span></span>Seeking Alpha</p></figcaption></figure><p><em>And, with the AI spending boom still in full swing, Nvidia's upcoming Q3 2024 report on 20th November is likely to be robust.</em></p> </blockquote> <h2>How Did Nvidia Fare In Q3 FY2025?</h2> <p>With Nvidia reporting $35.1B in revenues (up +94% y/y, vs. est. $33.1B) and $0.81 in normalized EPS (vs. est. $0.75) for Q3 FY2025, I think it is fair to conclude that the semiconductor behemoth eased past consensus street estimates on top and bottom-line estimates.</p> <p><figure contenteditable=\"false\"><picture> <span><img contenteditable=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2024/11/20/51572009-17321384876649716.png\"/></span> </picture><figcaption><p><span>Nvidia Investor Relations</span></p></figcaption></figure></p> <p><strong>In Jensen Huang's words - </strong></p> <blockquote> <p><em>The age of AI is in full steam, propelling a global shift to NVIDIA computing. Demand for Hopper and anticipation for Blackwell — in full production — are incredible as foundation model makers scale pretraining, post-training and inference.</em></p> <p><em>AI is transforming every industry, company and country. Enterprises are adopting agentic AI to revolutionize workflows. Industrial robotics investments are surging with breakthroughs in physical AI. And countries have awakened to the importance of developing their national AI and infrastructure</em></p> </blockquote> <p>While Nvidia's quarterly gross margin moderated to 75% in Q3 FY2025, hypergrowth in Data Center revenues [$30.77B, +112% y/y] continued unabated as “Compute” revenues soared to $27.64B [+132% y/y] on the back of strong demand for Nvidia's Hopper GPUs, totally overpowering a -15% q/q decline in “Networking” revenues.</p> <p><figure contenteditable=\"false\"><picture> <span><img contenteditable=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2024/11/20/51572009-17321391274688108.png\"/></span> </picture><figcaption><p><span>Nvidia Investor Relations</span></p></figcaption></figure></p> <p>Given the outsized weight of Nvidia's Data Center segment within the business, Gaming, Professional Visualization, and Automotive segments seem irrelevant at this point; however, each of these segments saw healthy y/y growth in Q3 FY2025.</p> <p>Now, buoyed by its robust Q3 performance and strong demand for both Hopper and Blackwell, Nvidia's management have provided above-consensus sales guidance of $37.5B for Q4 FY2025 — completing Nvidia's 8th consecutive triple play, i.e., “double beat and raise” quarter.</p> <p><figure contenteditable=\"false\"><picture> <span><img contenteditable=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2024/11/20/51572009-1732140664575188.png\"/></span> </picture><figcaption><p><span>Nvidia Investor Relations</span></p></figcaption></figure></p> <p>That said, Nvidia's Q4 revenue guide did fall short of buy-side whisper number of $39B, and the semiconductor giant expects ongoing gross margin contraction to continue next quarter, with Q4 non-GAAP GM expected to land at 73.5%, down from 75% in Q3.</p> <p>And as I said in one of my previous reports,</p> <blockquote> <p><em>Nvidia's gross margins contracting to a low 70% level could be an indication of deteriorating pricing power [despite Nvidia's plan of generating SaaS revenues with Blackwell GPUs].</em></p> <p>Source: Nvidia Q1 FY2025: AI Party Rolls On, But I Refuse To Dance.</p> </blockquote> <p>Now, lately, we have seen reports about “overheating” issues tied to Blackwell servers. However, as per Nvidia's latest quarterly report, Blackwell production remains on track, with shipments set to begin in Q4 FY2025 and ramp in FY2026. Furthermore, Huang &amp; Co. called out “supply constraints” for both Hopper and Blackwell, dismissing concerns around near-term demand outlook despite projected revenue growth deceleration.</p> <p>That said, the semiconductor industry is cyclical in nature, and Nvidia's largest customers — cloud hyperscalers [50% of revenues] — are building their own in-house AI chips and partnering with other players [like Advanced Micro Devices (AMD)] in the industry. Hence, I think Nvidia's medium-to-long-term demand [growth and margins] remains questionable.</p> <p>If you have been following my work on Nvidia, you know that I do not hold a long position in this counter. While my opinion could still have an element of a bias, I am flabbergasted by Nvidia's aggressive stock buybacks, which rose to $11B in Q3:</p> <p><figure contenteditable=\"false\"><picture> <span><img contenteditable=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2024/11/20/51572009-17321422410015776.png\"/></span> </picture><figcaption><p><span>Nvidia Investor Relations</span></p></figcaption></figure></p> <p>Yes, Nvidia is experiencing a massive AI windfall right now, with Q3 FCF reaching a record high $16.78B and “cash and short-term investments” soaring to $38.5B. However, if and when the historical cyclicality associated with semis strikes again, stock buybacks at ~20x FY2025E revenue [or ~$3.6T market cap] will look absolutely horrendous. I would rather see Nvidia stockpiling cash through this period (if no better use of capital is possible) ahead of the next down cycle in semis.</p> <h2>Concluding Thoughts: Is NVDA Stock A Buy, Sell, Or Hold After Q3 Earnings?</h2> <p>In light of Nvidia's Q3 FY2025 report, I am updating my valuation model's revenue base to FY2025E revenue of $130B [baking in a $1.5B sales beat on management's guidance for Q4 FY2025]. All other assumptions have been held constant from our last assessment and are self-explanatory, but if you have any questions, please share them in the comments section below.</p> <p><strong>Here's my updated valuation model for Nvidia:</strong></p> <p><figure contenteditable=\"false\"><picture> <span><img contenteditable=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2024/11/20/51572009-17321436849318805.png\"/></span> </picture><figcaption><p>TQI Valuation Model <span>(Free to use at TQIG.org)</span></p></figcaption></figure><figure contenteditable=\"false\"><picture> <span><img contenteditable=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2024/11/20/51572009-17321437733873487.png\"/></span> </picture><figcaption><p>TQI Valuation Model <span>(Free to use at TQIG.org)</span></p></figcaption></figure></p> <p>Nvidia Corporation remains the most obvious “picks and shovels” play in the AI gold rush; however, a lot of future success is already baked into Nvidia's current stock price, with TQI's fair value estimate of $80.45 per share pointing to a downside of -45% from current levels.</p> <p>More importantly, Nvidia's long-term risk/reward [derived from aggressive assumptions for long-term growth, future margins, and exit multiples] as measured by 5-year expected CAGR return has deteriorated down to 3.44%; well under risk-free treasury yields of 4-4.5%. In the past, I have rated Nvidia a “Hold;” however, with NVDA now being less attractive than risk-free treasuries, I now view it as a tactical “Sell.”</p> <p><strong>Key Takeaway:</strong> I rate Nvidia a tactical “Sell” in the $140s.</p> <div></div> <p>Thanks for reading, and happy investing! Please share your thoughts, questions, or concerns in the comments section below.</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Nvidia: Triple Play Not Enough To Justify $3.6T Valuation (Rating Downgrade)</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNvidia: Triple Play Not Enough To Justify $3.6T Valuation (Rating Downgrade)\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-11-21 08:37 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4739158-nvidia-triple-play-not-enough-to-justify-3-6t-valuation-rating-downgrade><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>NVIDIA Corporation surpassed Q3 FY2025 expectations with $35.1B in revenue and $0.81 EPS, driven by strong Data Center segment performance.Despite robust results, concerns linger over supply ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4739158-nvidia-triple-play-not-enough-to-justify-3-6t-valuation-rating-downgrade\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1412721464/image_1412721464.jpg","relate_stocks":{"NVDA":"英伟达"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4739158-nvidia-triple-play-not-enough-to-justify-3-6t-valuation-rating-downgrade","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"2485567109","content_text":"NVIDIA Corporation surpassed Q3 FY2025 expectations with $35.1B in revenue and $0.81 EPS, driven by strong Data Center segment performance.Despite robust results, concerns linger over supply constraints for Hopper and Blackwell GPUs, and ongoing gross margin contraction.Nvidia's stock remains overvalued at $145 per share, with a 5-year expected CAGR of ~3.4%, falling short of my investment hurdle rate.   BING-JHEN HONG  Introduction In my article “Magnificent 7 Are Alive And Well, But A Rest Is Inevitable,” I foresaw a robust Q3 FY2025 report from NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ:NVDA) (NEOE:NVDA:CA):  Over the past two to three decades, \"Mag-7\" tech conglomerates have continuously delivered disruptive innovation and proven themselves to be growth compounding engines. Today, each of these businesses rake in annual revenues of more than $100B; however, scale isn't holding back growth due to past re-investments. Now, the capital allocation at \"Mag-7\" companies has undoubtedly shifted towards capital return in recent years, aggressive re-investments continue - with CAPEX to Revenue for this group ranging from 10-20% [Apple is an exception] and R&D to Revenue ranging from 5-30%.   YCharts  YChartsAs you may know, a huge chunk of this big tech CAPEX spending is going towards GenAI infrastructure - GPUs and long-lived real estate leases, especially in the case of cloud infrastructure providers, i.e., Amazon [AWS], Alphabet [Google Cloud Platform], and Microsoft [Azure]. And based on management commentary, this AI rush is set to continue in 2025: Hyperscaler capex forecasts to hit $300B in 2025: Morgan Stanley In addition to unlocking GenAI capabilities for other organizations, these tech giants are using these resources to improve their existing products and services. For example, Alphabet and Microsoft are redefining the Search market with GenAI-powered user experiences, Meta is using Gen-AI across its Family of Apps to boost ad performance and spending billions on Reality Labs to build the next big computing platform, and Tesla is attempting to solve vehicle autonomy using a cluster of 100,000+ GPUs. Now, given its dominant positioning in the GPU market, Nvidia is receiving almost all of this CAPEX spending as revenue!   Seeking AlphaAnd, with the AI spending boom still in full swing, Nvidia's upcoming Q3 2024 report on 20th November is likely to be robust.  How Did Nvidia Fare In Q3 FY2025? With Nvidia reporting $35.1B in revenues (up +94% y/y, vs. est. $33.1B) and $0.81 in normalized EPS (vs. est. $0.75) for Q3 FY2025, I think it is fair to conclude that the semiconductor behemoth eased past consensus street estimates on top and bottom-line estimates.   Nvidia Investor Relations In Jensen Huang's words -   The age of AI is in full steam, propelling a global shift to NVIDIA computing. Demand for Hopper and anticipation for Blackwell — in full production — are incredible as foundation model makers scale pretraining, post-training and inference. AI is transforming every industry, company and country. Enterprises are adopting agentic AI to revolutionize workflows. Industrial robotics investments are surging with breakthroughs in physical AI. And countries have awakened to the importance of developing their national AI and infrastructure  While Nvidia's quarterly gross margin moderated to 75% in Q3 FY2025, hypergrowth in Data Center revenues [$30.77B, +112% y/y] continued unabated as “Compute” revenues soared to $27.64B [+132% y/y] on the back of strong demand for Nvidia's Hopper GPUs, totally overpowering a -15% q/q decline in “Networking” revenues.   Nvidia Investor Relations Given the outsized weight of Nvidia's Data Center segment within the business, Gaming, Professional Visualization, and Automotive segments seem irrelevant at this point; however, each of these segments saw healthy y/y growth in Q3 FY2025. Now, buoyed by its robust Q3 performance and strong demand for both Hopper and Blackwell, Nvidia's management have provided above-consensus sales guidance of $37.5B for Q4 FY2025 — completing Nvidia's 8th consecutive triple play, i.e., “double beat and raise” quarter.   Nvidia Investor Relations That said, Nvidia's Q4 revenue guide did fall short of buy-side whisper number of $39B, and the semiconductor giant expects ongoing gross margin contraction to continue next quarter, with Q4 non-GAAP GM expected to land at 73.5%, down from 75% in Q3. And as I said in one of my previous reports,  Nvidia's gross margins contracting to a low 70% level could be an indication of deteriorating pricing power [despite Nvidia's plan of generating SaaS revenues with Blackwell GPUs]. Source: Nvidia Q1 FY2025: AI Party Rolls On, But I Refuse To Dance.  Now, lately, we have seen reports about “overheating” issues tied to Blackwell servers. However, as per Nvidia's latest quarterly report, Blackwell production remains on track, with shipments set to begin in Q4 FY2025 and ramp in FY2026. Furthermore, Huang & Co. called out “supply constraints” for both Hopper and Blackwell, dismissing concerns around near-term demand outlook despite projected revenue growth deceleration. That said, the semiconductor industry is cyclical in nature, and Nvidia's largest customers — cloud hyperscalers [50% of revenues] — are building their own in-house AI chips and partnering with other players [like Advanced Micro Devices (AMD)] in the industry. Hence, I think Nvidia's medium-to-long-term demand [growth and margins] remains questionable. If you have been following my work on Nvidia, you know that I do not hold a long position in this counter. While my opinion could still have an element of a bias, I am flabbergasted by Nvidia's aggressive stock buybacks, which rose to $11B in Q3:   Nvidia Investor Relations Yes, Nvidia is experiencing a massive AI windfall right now, with Q3 FCF reaching a record high $16.78B and “cash and short-term investments” soaring to $38.5B. However, if and when the historical cyclicality associated with semis strikes again, stock buybacks at ~20x FY2025E revenue [or ~$3.6T market cap] will look absolutely horrendous. I would rather see Nvidia stockpiling cash through this period (if no better use of capital is possible) ahead of the next down cycle in semis. Concluding Thoughts: Is NVDA Stock A Buy, Sell, Or Hold After Q3 Earnings? In light of Nvidia's Q3 FY2025 report, I am updating my valuation model's revenue base to FY2025E revenue of $130B [baking in a $1.5B sales beat on management's guidance for Q4 FY2025]. All other assumptions have been held constant from our last assessment and are self-explanatory, but if you have any questions, please share them in the comments section below. Here's my updated valuation model for Nvidia:   TQI Valuation Model (Free to use at TQIG.org)  TQI Valuation Model (Free to use at TQIG.org) Nvidia Corporation remains the most obvious “picks and shovels” play in the AI gold rush; however, a lot of future success is already baked into Nvidia's current stock price, with TQI's fair value estimate of $80.45 per share pointing to a downside of -45% from current levels. More importantly, Nvidia's long-term risk/reward [derived from aggressive assumptions for long-term growth, future margins, and exit multiples] as measured by 5-year expected CAGR return has deteriorated down to 3.44%; well under risk-free treasury yields of 4-4.5%. In the past, I have rated Nvidia a “Hold;” however, with NVDA now being less attractive than risk-free treasuries, I now view it as a tactical “Sell.” Key Takeaway: I rate Nvidia a tactical “Sell” in the $140s.  Thanks for reading, and happy investing! Please share your thoughts, questions, or concerns in the comments section below.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":345,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":352025370411096,"gmtCreate":1726982348711,"gmtModify":1726988736645,"author":{"id":"3574807189087941","authorId":"3574807189087941","name":"Icywinddale","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/3bd2fbf9d90e26b2f600b2c5d7c54244","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574807189087941","authorIdStr":"3574807189087941"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Brain-damaged articles","listText":"Brain-damaged articles","text":"Brain-damaged articles","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/352025370411096","repostId":"2469511719","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2469511719","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Dow Jones publishes the world’s most trusted business news and financial information in a variety of media.","home_visible":0,"media_name":"Dow Jones","id":"106","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99"},"pubTimestamp":1726962870,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2469511719?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2024-09-22 07:54","market":"hk","language":"en","title":"Sorry, the Fed Can't Save Us From a Bear Market","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2469511719","media":"Dow Jones","summary":"Wall Street commentary around this week's Fed rate cut could have filled a very long and boring book, but much of what you need to know about its effect on the stock market can be found in a movie rarely linked with monetary policy: \"The Wizard of Oz.\". The great and powerful man behind the central bank curtain, Jerome Powell, really can't do as much as people think to keep their portfolios from shriveling if the wheels are already starting to come off the economy. Stocks' initial reaction to Wednesday's cut was exuberant. That often proves to be a head fake, though -- we still don't know how this movie ends.Take the start of the rate-cutting cycle in 2007 -- one that coincidentally began on the same day of the year, the same starting federal-funds rate, and was for an identical amount, half a percent  -- as Wednesday's move. The effect was electric: The Dow Jones Industrial Average had its largest gain in more than four years, rising 336 points, the equivalent of about 1,000 points to","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Wall Street commentary around this week&#39;s Fed rate cut could have filled a very long and boring book, but much of what you need to know about its effect on the stock market can be found in a movie rarely linked with monetary policy: &#34;The Wizard of Oz.&#34;</p><p>The great and powerful man behind the central bank curtain, Jerome Powell, really can&#39;t do as much as people think to keep their portfolios from shriveling if the wheels are already starting to come off the economy. Stocks&#39; initial reaction to Wednesday&#39;s cut was exuberant. That often proves to be a head fake, though -- we still don&#39;t know how this movie ends.</p><p>Take the start of the rate-cutting cycle in 2007 -- one that coincidentally began on the same day of the year, the same starting federal-funds rate, and was for an identical amount, half a percent (50 basis points) -- as Wednesday&#39;s move. The effect was electric: The Dow Jones Industrial Average had its largest gain in more than four years, rising 336 points, the equivalent of about 1,000 points today. Lehman Brothers shares were among the top performers, surging 10%.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/87332df9d93b9dea02c121a049013aad\" tg-width=\"931\" tg-height=\"768\"/></p><p>But, as we know now, stocks were just three weeks from their bull-market peak, a recession would begin in January 2008, and Lehman would collapse less than a year later in the largest-ever U.S. bankruptcy. By that time, the Fed had cut rates six more times -- moves of 25, 25, 75, 50, 75 and 25 basis points, in that order. The moves took rates to 2%, their lowest in nearly four years. In the two months following the Lehman panic, the Fed made three more steep cuts, slashing rates to zero (technically a range of 0% to 0.25%) for the first time ever.</p><p>Stocks surged then too, with the benchmark S&amp;P 500 jumping 4.7%. The Dow&#39;s gain of 360 points would be nearly 1,700 today. Yet they erased all of that day&#39;s rally in less than a week and would go on to shed another quarter of their value before bottoming in March 2009.</p><p>To be clear, the conditions that existed during the housing crisis were extreme, sparking the worst U.S. economic downturn since the Great Depression. Extreme events are by definition rare, and most predictions of doom are false alarms. More money is lost bracing for bear markets than in them, even when they really happen.</p><p>Yet there have been 22 bear markets in the past century for all sorts of reasons. Economists who dismiss the possibility of a tumble just because specific excesses such as toxic subprime loans as in the mid-aughts or ludicrous dot-com valuations akin to the late &#39;90s don&#39;t exist today could wind up with egg on their faces. Like generals fighting the last war, they rely too much on their lived experience.</p><p>In a classic of the genre, then Bear Stearns chief economist David Malpass wrote a Wall Street Journal op-ed, &#34;Don&#39;t Panic About the Credit Market,&#34; in August 2007 after a two-month retreat in stock prices.</p><p>&#34;Unlike the 1998 seizure in credit markets to which many are now drawing comparisons, reservoirs of global liquidity are full to overflowing, not empty as they were that year,&#34; he wrote. &#34;The deep 1997-1998 Asian crisis has been replaced with an all-cylinder boom.&#34;</p><p>Despite five subsequent Fed rate cuts, his employer was among the first high-profile casualties of the credit meltdown. Two months after September 2007&#39;s rate-cutting cycle had begun, the mood already had darkened, yet a Wall Street Journal survey of 54 economists that month put the odds of any U.S. recession in the following 12 months at just one-third.</p><p>The chairman of the Fed doesn&#39;t have a magic wand to levitate an economy that is already stumbling or a stock market about to do the same. Goldman Sachs strategist David Kostin noted recently that &#34;the trajectory of growth is a more important driver for stocks than the speed of rate cuts.&#34;</p><p>His research shows that, if the economy has already been headed into a recession before the first rate cut, then the median path of the S&amp;P 500 has been to lose around 14% of its value in the coming year. If it wasn&#39;t headed into a recession, then it is the inverse. Lower rates most certainly matter for bond investors. They might only blunt an already-unfolding swoon for stocks, though, since they take so long to filter through to companies and consumers.</p><p>Claims that the U.S. economy could soon contract aren&#39;t very convincing at the moment, and a sharp pullback of a third or more in stocks would be unusual unless the economy stalls. That helps explain why stocks are near record highs and the usual signs of market caution so subdued. But so does the misguided belief that Fed cuts are themselves a reason to remain calm and keep buying.</p><p>There are smart people on the fringes -- they usually are at this stage -- warning about excesses in private credit and commercial real estate or the effect of China&#39;s alarming slowdown on the world economy. U.S. stocks have rarely been so expensive, concentrated or dependent on a single theme -- the promise of AI. And government indebtedness around the world has never been as high, making the response to the next recession trickier.</p><p>We&#39;re not in Kansas any more.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Sorry, the Fed Can't Save Us From a Bear Market</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSorry, the Fed Can't Save Us From a Bear Market\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Dow Jones </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2024-09-22 07:54</p>\n</div>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>Wall Street commentary around this week&#39;s Fed rate cut could have filled a very long and boring book, but much of what you need to know about its effect on the stock market can be found in a movie rarely linked with monetary policy: &#34;The Wizard of Oz.&#34;</p><p>The great and powerful man behind the central bank curtain, Jerome Powell, really can&#39;t do as much as people think to keep their portfolios from shriveling if the wheels are already starting to come off the economy. Stocks&#39; initial reaction to Wednesday&#39;s cut was exuberant. That often proves to be a head fake, though -- we still don&#39;t know how this movie ends.</p><p>Take the start of the rate-cutting cycle in 2007 -- one that coincidentally began on the same day of the year, the same starting federal-funds rate, and was for an identical amount, half a percent (50 basis points) -- as Wednesday&#39;s move. The effect was electric: The Dow Jones Industrial Average had its largest gain in more than four years, rising 336 points, the equivalent of about 1,000 points today. Lehman Brothers shares were among the top performers, surging 10%.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/87332df9d93b9dea02c121a049013aad\" tg-width=\"931\" tg-height=\"768\"/></p><p>But, as we know now, stocks were just three weeks from their bull-market peak, a recession would begin in January 2008, and Lehman would collapse less than a year later in the largest-ever U.S. bankruptcy. By that time, the Fed had cut rates six more times -- moves of 25, 25, 75, 50, 75 and 25 basis points, in that order. The moves took rates to 2%, their lowest in nearly four years. In the two months following the Lehman panic, the Fed made three more steep cuts, slashing rates to zero (technically a range of 0% to 0.25%) for the first time ever.</p><p>Stocks surged then too, with the benchmark S&amp;P 500 jumping 4.7%. The Dow&#39;s gain of 360 points would be nearly 1,700 today. Yet they erased all of that day&#39;s rally in less than a week and would go on to shed another quarter of their value before bottoming in March 2009.</p><p>To be clear, the conditions that existed during the housing crisis were extreme, sparking the worst U.S. economic downturn since the Great Depression. Extreme events are by definition rare, and most predictions of doom are false alarms. More money is lost bracing for bear markets than in them, even when they really happen.</p><p>Yet there have been 22 bear markets in the past century for all sorts of reasons. Economists who dismiss the possibility of a tumble just because specific excesses such as toxic subprime loans as in the mid-aughts or ludicrous dot-com valuations akin to the late &#39;90s don&#39;t exist today could wind up with egg on their faces. Like generals fighting the last war, they rely too much on their lived experience.</p><p>In a classic of the genre, then Bear Stearns chief economist David Malpass wrote a Wall Street Journal op-ed, &#34;Don&#39;t Panic About the Credit Market,&#34; in August 2007 after a two-month retreat in stock prices.</p><p>&#34;Unlike the 1998 seizure in credit markets to which many are now drawing comparisons, reservoirs of global liquidity are full to overflowing, not empty as they were that year,&#34; he wrote. &#34;The deep 1997-1998 Asian crisis has been replaced with an all-cylinder boom.&#34;</p><p>Despite five subsequent Fed rate cuts, his employer was among the first high-profile casualties of the credit meltdown. Two months after September 2007&#39;s rate-cutting cycle had begun, the mood already had darkened, yet a Wall Street Journal survey of 54 economists that month put the odds of any U.S. recession in the following 12 months at just one-third.</p><p>The chairman of the Fed doesn&#39;t have a magic wand to levitate an economy that is already stumbling or a stock market about to do the same. Goldman Sachs strategist David Kostin noted recently that &#34;the trajectory of growth is a more important driver for stocks than the speed of rate cuts.&#34;</p><p>His research shows that, if the economy has already been headed into a recession before the first rate cut, then the median path of the S&amp;P 500 has been to lose around 14% of its value in the coming year. If it wasn&#39;t headed into a recession, then it is the inverse. Lower rates most certainly matter for bond investors. They might only blunt an already-unfolding swoon for stocks, though, since they take so long to filter through to companies and consumers.</p><p>Claims that the U.S. economy could soon contract aren&#39;t very convincing at the moment, and a sharp pullback of a third or more in stocks would be unusual unless the economy stalls. That helps explain why stocks are near record highs and the usual signs of market caution so subdued. But so does the misguided belief that Fed cuts are themselves a reason to remain calm and keep buying.</p><p>There are smart people on the fringes -- they usually are at this stage -- warning about excesses in private credit and commercial real estate or the effect of China&#39;s alarming slowdown on the world economy. U.S. stocks have rarely been so expensive, concentrated or dependent on a single theme -- the promise of AI. And government indebtedness around the world has never been as high, making the response to the next recession trickier.</p><p>We&#39;re not in Kansas any more.</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://dowjonesnews.com/newdjn/logon.aspx?AL=N","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2469511719","content_text":"Wall Street commentary around this week's Fed rate cut could have filled a very long and boring book, but much of what you need to know about its effect on the stock market can be found in a movie rarely linked with monetary policy: \"The Wizard of Oz.\"The great and powerful man behind the central bank curtain, Jerome Powell, really can't do as much as people think to keep their portfolios from shriveling if the wheels are already starting to come off the economy. Stocks' initial reaction to Wednesday's cut was exuberant. That often proves to be a head fake, though -- we still don't know how this movie ends.Take the start of the rate-cutting cycle in 2007 -- one that coincidentally began on the same day of the year, the same starting federal-funds rate, and was for an identical amount, half a percent (50 basis points) -- as Wednesday's move. The effect was electric: The Dow Jones Industrial Average had its largest gain in more than four years, rising 336 points, the equivalent of about 1,000 points today. Lehman Brothers shares were among the top performers, surging 10%.But, as we know now, stocks were just three weeks from their bull-market peak, a recession would begin in January 2008, and Lehman would collapse less than a year later in the largest-ever U.S. bankruptcy. By that time, the Fed had cut rates six more times -- moves of 25, 25, 75, 50, 75 and 25 basis points, in that order. The moves took rates to 2%, their lowest in nearly four years. In the two months following the Lehman panic, the Fed made three more steep cuts, slashing rates to zero (technically a range of 0% to 0.25%) for the first time ever.Stocks surged then too, with the benchmark S&P 500 jumping 4.7%. The Dow's gain of 360 points would be nearly 1,700 today. Yet they erased all of that day's rally in less than a week and would go on to shed another quarter of their value before bottoming in March 2009.To be clear, the conditions that existed during the housing crisis were extreme, sparking the worst U.S. economic downturn since the Great Depression. Extreme events are by definition rare, and most predictions of doom are false alarms. More money is lost bracing for bear markets than in them, even when they really happen.Yet there have been 22 bear markets in the past century for all sorts of reasons. Economists who dismiss the possibility of a tumble just because specific excesses such as toxic subprime loans as in the mid-aughts or ludicrous dot-com valuations akin to the late '90s don't exist today could wind up with egg on their faces. Like generals fighting the last war, they rely too much on their lived experience.In a classic of the genre, then Bear Stearns chief economist David Malpass wrote a Wall Street Journal op-ed, \"Don't Panic About the Credit Market,\" in August 2007 after a two-month retreat in stock prices.\"Unlike the 1998 seizure in credit markets to which many are now drawing comparisons, reservoirs of global liquidity are full to overflowing, not empty as they were that year,\" he wrote. \"The deep 1997-1998 Asian crisis has been replaced with an all-cylinder boom.\"Despite five subsequent Fed rate cuts, his employer was among the first high-profile casualties of the credit meltdown. Two months after September 2007's rate-cutting cycle had begun, the mood already had darkened, yet a Wall Street Journal survey of 54 economists that month put the odds of any U.S. recession in the following 12 months at just one-third.The chairman of the Fed doesn't have a magic wand to levitate an economy that is already stumbling or a stock market about to do the same. Goldman Sachs strategist David Kostin noted recently that \"the trajectory of growth is a more important driver for stocks than the speed of rate cuts.\"His research shows that, if the economy has already been headed into a recession before the first rate cut, then the median path of the S&P 500 has been to lose around 14% of its value in the coming year. If it wasn't headed into a recession, then it is the inverse. Lower rates most certainly matter for bond investors. They might only blunt an already-unfolding swoon for stocks, though, since they take so long to filter through to companies and consumers.Claims that the U.S. economy could soon contract aren't very convincing at the moment, and a sharp pullback of a third or more in stocks would be unusual unless the economy stalls. That helps explain why stocks are near record highs and the usual signs of market caution so subdued. But so does the misguided belief that Fed cuts are themselves a reason to remain calm and keep buying.There are smart people on the fringes -- they usually are at this stage -- warning about excesses in private credit and commercial real estate or the effect of China's alarming slowdown on the world economy. U.S. stocks have rarely been so expensive, concentrated or dependent on a single theme -- the promise of AI. And government indebtedness around the world has never been as high, making the response to the next recession trickier.We're not in Kansas any more.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":536,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":348977889988880,"gmtCreate":1726220390662,"gmtModify":1726220394262,"author":{"id":"3574807189087941","authorId":"3574807189087941","name":"Icywinddale","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/3bd2fbf9d90e26b2f600b2c5d7c54244","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574807189087941","authorIdStr":"3574807189087941"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"u know ZERO. Wrote something worth reading.","listText":"u know ZERO. Wrote something worth reading.","text":"u know ZERO. Wrote something worth reading.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/348977889988880","repostId":"2466270404","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2466270404","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1726229310,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2466270404?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2024-09-13 20:08","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Nvidia: The Price Is Too High","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2466270404","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"The market has negatively reacted to Nvidia’s latest earnings report.Nvidia faces several risks that will likely undermine its efforts to grow its sales across the globe.We also believe that Nvidia is","content":"<html><head></head><body><ul style=\"\"><li><p>The market has negatively reacted to Nvidia’s latest earnings report.</p></li><li><p>Nvidia faces several risks that will likely undermine its efforts to grow its sales across the globe.</p></li><li><p>We also believe that Nvidia is overvalued, its upside is limited, and its stock is a SELL for us.</p></li></ul><h2 id=\"id_3486510891\">Nvidia Disappoints The Market</h2><p>Two weeks ago, Nvidia released its Q2’25 earnings report, which showed that the revenues during the quarter were $30.04 billion, up 122.4% Y/Y and above the consensus by $1.29 billion. Despite such results, the company’s shares initially declined after the results were revealed.</p><p>In part, the decline was caused by the expectations that Nvidia’s growth rate is about to normalize in the upcoming quarters, which means that the triple-digit growth rate is likely to be a thing of the past next year and beyond.</p><p>If we look closely at the performance of Nvidia’s stock, we’ll see that it started to gain momentum in May 2023. That is when the Q1’24 report was released, which showed that while the company’s revenues declined Y/Y, major growth was expected in the following quarter thanks to the increased demand for its first generative AI GPUs from the H100 series that started to gain traction back then. As the generative AI revolution began to gather steam, the sales for the company’s AI GPUs were accelerating, which made Nvidia trade at excessive multiples that are mostly far beyond the sector’s median multiples.</p><p>Ever since that report came in, the market’s perception was that the company needed to significantly beat the consensus estimates and meaningfully increase its guidance all the time for the shares to continue to trade at those high multiples. This has been the case in recent quarters so far. In Q3’24, Q4’24, and Q1’25, Nvidia beat the revenue consensus by a wide margin and announced a major guidance increase that was above the street expectations by a significant margin as well. Thanks to this, Nvidia’s shares rallied, and the company was able to become one of the most valuable businesses in the world in less than two years.</p><p>However, after the recent Q2’25 report came in, there’s a sign that the pace of growth appears to be slowing down, and it’s one of the main reasons why the stock has been declining recently. CNN reported that investors were likely disappointed that Nvidia didn’t beat the estimates by a wider margin. Another Seeking Alpha contributor Jonathan Weber also noted that while the revenue estimates were beaten by around 4%, it’s not as great when compared to a year ago when revenue estimates were beaten by around 20%. If we look at Nvidia’s earnings history, we’ll see that the revenue beat in absolute numbers has been shrinking during each consecutive quarter starting from Q2’24. Professor Aswath Damodaran noted that <em>there are clear signs of more slowing to come, as scaling will continue to push revenue growth down.</em></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/1e0ecde52260da152c697a1556ad66bb\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"137\"/></p><p>Earnings History (Seeking Alpha)</p><p>In addition to that, the guidance also was relatively weak and contributed to the decline in share price as well. In Q3, Nvidia expects to generate $32.5 billion in revenues, which is less than a billion dollars from the consensus of $31.71 billion. This was one of the biggest disappointments of the recent earnings report, as the market expected a better guidance. Professor Aswath Damodaran also explained what to make from this guidance and what’s to come next, and we fully share his point of view:</p><blockquote><p>As a company that has played the expectations game well, it should come as no surprise that Nvidia provided guidance for future quarters in its second quarter report, and here too, there were reminders that comparisons would get more challenging in future quarters, as they predicted that revenue growth rates would come back to earth, and that margins would, at best, level off or perhaps even decline.</p></blockquote><h2 id=\"id_3089099913\">Additional Issues To Consider</h2><p>While the guidance has been rather disappointing, there’s also a possibility that it would be more challenging for Nvidia to meet it, and especially exceed it, as it faces some additional challenges right now. Last month, news came in that Nvidia’s upcoming Blackwell GPUs will be delayed, which resulted in a short-term selloff of the company’s shares. Nvidia in the recent conference call hinted that the potential delay was due to the technical change to improve the production yields of Blackwell and the production ramp-up is expected only in Q4. As such, there’s a possibility that the overall performance in Q3 could also disappoint investors when the next earnings report comes out in November.</p><p>There’s also a risk that the guidance in the next earnings report could also disappoint investors, since the company faces some external risks that are outside of its control. In the Q1 earnings call, the management admitted that their data center revenue in China is down significantly due to the American chip export restrictions that were implemented last year. In the recent Q2 earnings call, they repeated that their current sales in China are below the previous levels. Since the China-USA relations are not expected to significantly improve anytime soon and Beijing has recently retaliated by imposing its export restrictions as well, the macro risks will remain and will likely continue to undermine Nvidia’s efforts to grow revenues across the globe.</p><p>As a result of all of that, we believe that Nvidia is not a good investment right now and its shares have a decent chance of continuing to depreciate or trade sideways in the upcoming months.</p><h2 id=\"id_2000837632\">The Intrinsic Value of Nvidia</h2><p>Right now, we believe that Nvidia’s stock is also overvalued, especially since it trades at a forward P/E of 38x, while the sector’s median P/E is only 23x. Seeking Alpha’s Quant system also gives Nvidia a rating of D- for valuation. To figure out Nvidia’s intrinsic value and how big is its downside, we created our valuation model.</p><p>To create a model, we added some initial data that can be seen on the left side of the table below. The tax rate in our model is 21%. This is the current corporate tax rate in the United States. While Nvidia’s effective tax rate was lower in the last year, our model covers a period of the next five years where the tax rate might increase. This is why it makes sense to assume a higher rate in the model. We made this model at a time when Nvidia was trading at $116.91 per share, and the long-term debt and the cash reserves data was added from the latest earnings report. The perpetual growth rate is 3%, which is close to the historical inflation and GDP rate.</p><p>The discount rate in our model is 10.28%. The calculation for the discount rate is presented in the middle and right columns of the table, which can be seen below. First, we calculated the cost of debt and the after-tax cost of debt by using Nvidia’s TTM financial data. Then we calculated the cost of equity by using the risk-free rate of 3.86%, the beta of 1.68, and the inflation-adjusted market-return rate of 7.70%. In the end, we weighted Nvidia’s debt profile with its equity and figured out the discount rate.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/4525cc5cfd74d912557f2358499ce023\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"183\"/></p><p>Nvidia’s Valuation (Bears of Wall Street)</p><p>Once we filled in the entry data, we moved on to forecasting Nvidia’s growth in the upcoming years. The sales growth rate of 106% in the model is similar to the overall expectations for the current fiscal year. While the pace of growth is expected to subside going forward, the company still had strong growth at the beginning of this fiscal year, which is why in FY25 we’ll still see a triple-digit rate for sales. After that, a normalization of the growth rate is expected to happen and is reflected in our model. The EBIT as a percentage of sales is 62% in the model, which is close to the company’s historical performance in recent months. The tax rate is 21%, while the assumptions for the rest of the metrics closely match up with Nvidia’s historical performance.</p><p>Our forecast helped us figure out the present value of Nvidia’s FCF in the upcoming years. We were then able to calculate the cumulative value of Nvidia’s FCF, apply the discount and perpetual growth rates, and figure out the terminal value and the present value of Nvidia’s terminal value. We then added Nvidia’s present value of the terminal value to the cumulative present value of its FCF to calculate the company’s enterprise value, which in our case is $1.94 trillion.</p><p>Once the enterprise value was found, we then added Nvidia’s cash, subtracted the long-term debt from it, and arrived at an equity value of $1.97 trillion. After that, we divided Nvidia’s equity value by the number of its shares and arrived at the intrinsic value of $79.33 per share. This means that Nvidia’s stock is overvalued by around 32%. That’s why we believe that Nvidia is a SELL right now.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/c7c5c3fa734baa66f95a87eecfb553f6\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"228\"/></p><p>Nvidia’s Valuation (Bears of Wall Street)</p><p>It’s also important to note that at a market cap of nearly ~$2. 65 trillion, it’s hard to justify Nvidia’s current price, even after the recent decline caused by the latest earnings report. The whole generative AI market under one of the most optimistic assumptions is expected to be worth $1.3 trillion in 2032. In addition, the overall cloud market could be worth only as much as $1.8 trillion by 2029. Considering this, Nvidia’s current valuation today simply doesn’t make a lot of sense to us.</p><h2 id=\"id_815598079\">Risks To Our Bearish Thesis</h2><p>Despite all the negativity, several risks could undermine our bearish thesis. The most obvious is the potential greater ramp-up of sales in the second half of the year, which would make the market excited again about Nvidia’s growth prospects. The potential delay of Blackwell shipments could be offset by the potential increase of the company’s Hopper series GPUs, especially since their supply and availability have improved. This could ensure that Nvidia performs well in Q3, and makes investors once again excited about investing into its shares if the beat is significant.</p><p>We also know from the latest conference call that the demand for Blackwell is above supply. If no further delays are announced, then when the Q3 report comes out, Nvidia could also announce a far more optimistic guidance for Q4, which could help revive the stock’s momentum later this year.</p><h2 id=\"id_584510153\">Final Thoughts</h2><p>Nvidia’s biggest issue is that its stock is priced for perfection, and any earnings report that includes an earnings beat without an impressive margin and relatively disappointing guidance would likely prevent a further appreciation of shares. This has been the case with the latest earnings report and the subsequent reaction of the market to it.</p><p>The macro challenges are also not going anywhere away, and potential catalysts might not even materialize in the end if the company fails to grow its sales due to potential supply issues or delays. That is why Nvidia’s upside is not guaranteed and until the Q3 numbers come out, its shares could continue to experience weakness. This is why at the current price, Nvidia stock is a SELL for us.</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Nvidia: The Price Is Too High</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNvidia: The Price Is Too High\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-09-13 20:08 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4720611-nvidia-the-price-is-too-high><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>The market has negatively reacted to Nvidia’s latest earnings report.Nvidia faces several risks that will likely undermine its efforts to grow its sales across the globe.We also believe that Nvidia is...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4720611-nvidia-the-price-is-too-high\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BK4543":"AI","BK4527":"明星科技股","IE00BHPRN162.USD":"BNY MELLON BLOCKCHAIN INNOVATION \"B\" (USD) ACC","IE00BDCRKT87.USD":"PINEBRIDGE GLOBAL DYNAMIC ASSET ALLOCATION \"ADC\" (USD) INC","GB00BDT5M118.USD":"天利环球扩展Alpha基金A Acc","BK4588":"碎股","BK4579":"人工智能","LU0056508442.USD":"贝莱德世界科技基金A2","IE00BZ199S13.USD":"BNY MELLON MOBILITY INNOVATION \"B\" (USD) ACC","LU0048584097.USD":"FIDELITY FUNDS  GLOBAL THEMATIC OPPORTUNITIES \"A\" (USD) INC","IE00B1XK9C88.USD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE00BJJMRY28.SGD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Inc SGD","BK4503":"景林资产持仓","IE00BJLML261.HKD":"HSBC GLOBAL EQUITY INDEX \"HCH\" (HKD) ACC","IE00BMPRXN33.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN 5G CONNECTIVITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE00BYXW3230.USD":"PINEBRIDGE GLOBAL DYNAMIC ASSET ALLOCATION \"AA\" (USD) ACC","HK0000306701.USD":"TAIKANG KAITAI CHINA NEW OPPORTUNITIES FUND \"A\" (USD) INC","IE00B775H168.HKD":"JANUS HENDERSON BALANCED \"A5M\" (HKD) INC","NVDA":"英伟达","BK4581":"高盛持仓","IE0004445015.USD":"JANUS HENDERSON BALANCED \"A2\" (USD) ACC","IE0005OL40V9.USD":"JANUS HENDERSON BALANCED \"A6M\" (USD) INC","IE00B5949003.HKD":"JANUS HENDERSON GLOBAL TECHNOLOGY AND INNOVATION \"A\" (HKD) ACC","BK4549":"软银资本持仓","IE00BWXC8680.SGD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A5\" (SGD) ACC","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","IE00BJJMRX11.SGD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Acc SGD","IE00B19Z8X17.USD":"FTGF CLEARBRIDGE US LARGE CAP GROWTH  \"AG\" (USD) ACC","IE00B3M56506.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN EMERGING MARKETS EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE00BD6J9T35.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN NEXT GENERATION MOBILITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE00BMPRXQ63.HKD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN NEXT GENERATION CONNECTIVITY FUND \"A\" (HKDHDG) ACC","BK4554":"元宇宙及AR概念","IE0034235188.USD":"PINEBRIDGE GLOBAL FOCUS EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4532":"文艺复兴科技持仓","BK4592":"伊斯兰概念","IE00B19Z8W00.USD":"FTGF CLEARBRIDGE US LARGE CAP GROWTH \"A\" INC","HK0000320223.HKD":"TAIKANG KAITAI CHINA NEW OPPORTUNITIES FUND \"A\" (HKD) ACC","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","IE00B4JS1V06.HKD":"JANUS HENDERSON BALANCED \"A2\" (HKD) ACC","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","IE00BFSS7M15.SGD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Acc SGD-H","BK4587":"ChatGPT概念","HK0000320264.USD":"TAIKANG KAITAI CHINA NEW OPPORTUNITIES FUND \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE0034235295.USD":"PINEBRIDGE GLOBAL DYNAMIC ASSET ALLOCATION \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE0004091025.USD":"BNY MELLON GLOBAL OPPORTUNITIES \"B\" (USD) ACC","HK0000306685.HKD":"TAIKANG KAITAI CHINA NEW OPPORTUNITIES FUND \"A\" (HKD) INC"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4720611-nvidia-the-price-is-too-high","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"2466270404","content_text":"The market has negatively reacted to Nvidia’s latest earnings report.Nvidia faces several risks that will likely undermine its efforts to grow its sales across the globe.We also believe that Nvidia is overvalued, its upside is limited, and its stock is a SELL for us.Nvidia Disappoints The MarketTwo weeks ago, Nvidia released its Q2’25 earnings report, which showed that the revenues during the quarter were $30.04 billion, up 122.4% Y/Y and above the consensus by $1.29 billion. Despite such results, the company’s shares initially declined after the results were revealed.In part, the decline was caused by the expectations that Nvidia’s growth rate is about to normalize in the upcoming quarters, which means that the triple-digit growth rate is likely to be a thing of the past next year and beyond.If we look closely at the performance of Nvidia’s stock, we’ll see that it started to gain momentum in May 2023. That is when the Q1’24 report was released, which showed that while the company’s revenues declined Y/Y, major growth was expected in the following quarter thanks to the increased demand for its first generative AI GPUs from the H100 series that started to gain traction back then. As the generative AI revolution began to gather steam, the sales for the company’s AI GPUs were accelerating, which made Nvidia trade at excessive multiples that are mostly far beyond the sector’s median multiples.Ever since that report came in, the market’s perception was that the company needed to significantly beat the consensus estimates and meaningfully increase its guidance all the time for the shares to continue to trade at those high multiples. This has been the case in recent quarters so far. In Q3’24, Q4’24, and Q1’25, Nvidia beat the revenue consensus by a wide margin and announced a major guidance increase that was above the street expectations by a significant margin as well. Thanks to this, Nvidia’s shares rallied, and the company was able to become one of the most valuable businesses in the world in less than two years.However, after the recent Q2’25 report came in, there’s a sign that the pace of growth appears to be slowing down, and it’s one of the main reasons why the stock has been declining recently. CNN reported that investors were likely disappointed that Nvidia didn’t beat the estimates by a wider margin. Another Seeking Alpha contributor Jonathan Weber also noted that while the revenue estimates were beaten by around 4%, it’s not as great when compared to a year ago when revenue estimates were beaten by around 20%. If we look at Nvidia’s earnings history, we’ll see that the revenue beat in absolute numbers has been shrinking during each consecutive quarter starting from Q2’24. Professor Aswath Damodaran noted that there are clear signs of more slowing to come, as scaling will continue to push revenue growth down.Earnings History (Seeking Alpha)In addition to that, the guidance also was relatively weak and contributed to the decline in share price as well. In Q3, Nvidia expects to generate $32.5 billion in revenues, which is less than a billion dollars from the consensus of $31.71 billion. This was one of the biggest disappointments of the recent earnings report, as the market expected a better guidance. Professor Aswath Damodaran also explained what to make from this guidance and what’s to come next, and we fully share his point of view:As a company that has played the expectations game well, it should come as no surprise that Nvidia provided guidance for future quarters in its second quarter report, and here too, there were reminders that comparisons would get more challenging in future quarters, as they predicted that revenue growth rates would come back to earth, and that margins would, at best, level off or perhaps even decline.Additional Issues To ConsiderWhile the guidance has been rather disappointing, there’s also a possibility that it would be more challenging for Nvidia to meet it, and especially exceed it, as it faces some additional challenges right now. Last month, news came in that Nvidia’s upcoming Blackwell GPUs will be delayed, which resulted in a short-term selloff of the company’s shares. Nvidia in the recent conference call hinted that the potential delay was due to the technical change to improve the production yields of Blackwell and the production ramp-up is expected only in Q4. As such, there’s a possibility that the overall performance in Q3 could also disappoint investors when the next earnings report comes out in November.There’s also a risk that the guidance in the next earnings report could also disappoint investors, since the company faces some external risks that are outside of its control. In the Q1 earnings call, the management admitted that their data center revenue in China is down significantly due to the American chip export restrictions that were implemented last year. In the recent Q2 earnings call, they repeated that their current sales in China are below the previous levels. Since the China-USA relations are not expected to significantly improve anytime soon and Beijing has recently retaliated by imposing its export restrictions as well, the macro risks will remain and will likely continue to undermine Nvidia’s efforts to grow revenues across the globe.As a result of all of that, we believe that Nvidia is not a good investment right now and its shares have a decent chance of continuing to depreciate or trade sideways in the upcoming months.The Intrinsic Value of NvidiaRight now, we believe that Nvidia’s stock is also overvalued, especially since it trades at a forward P/E of 38x, while the sector’s median P/E is only 23x. Seeking Alpha’s Quant system also gives Nvidia a rating of D- for valuation. To figure out Nvidia’s intrinsic value and how big is its downside, we created our valuation model.To create a model, we added some initial data that can be seen on the left side of the table below. The tax rate in our model is 21%. This is the current corporate tax rate in the United States. While Nvidia’s effective tax rate was lower in the last year, our model covers a period of the next five years where the tax rate might increase. This is why it makes sense to assume a higher rate in the model. We made this model at a time when Nvidia was trading at $116.91 per share, and the long-term debt and the cash reserves data was added from the latest earnings report. The perpetual growth rate is 3%, which is close to the historical inflation and GDP rate.The discount rate in our model is 10.28%. The calculation for the discount rate is presented in the middle and right columns of the table, which can be seen below. First, we calculated the cost of debt and the after-tax cost of debt by using Nvidia’s TTM financial data. Then we calculated the cost of equity by using the risk-free rate of 3.86%, the beta of 1.68, and the inflation-adjusted market-return rate of 7.70%. In the end, we weighted Nvidia’s debt profile with its equity and figured out the discount rate.Nvidia’s Valuation (Bears of Wall Street)Once we filled in the entry data, we moved on to forecasting Nvidia’s growth in the upcoming years. The sales growth rate of 106% in the model is similar to the overall expectations for the current fiscal year. While the pace of growth is expected to subside going forward, the company still had strong growth at the beginning of this fiscal year, which is why in FY25 we’ll still see a triple-digit rate for sales. After that, a normalization of the growth rate is expected to happen and is reflected in our model. The EBIT as a percentage of sales is 62% in the model, which is close to the company’s historical performance in recent months. The tax rate is 21%, while the assumptions for the rest of the metrics closely match up with Nvidia’s historical performance.Our forecast helped us figure out the present value of Nvidia’s FCF in the upcoming years. We were then able to calculate the cumulative value of Nvidia’s FCF, apply the discount and perpetual growth rates, and figure out the terminal value and the present value of Nvidia’s terminal value. We then added Nvidia’s present value of the terminal value to the cumulative present value of its FCF to calculate the company’s enterprise value, which in our case is $1.94 trillion.Once the enterprise value was found, we then added Nvidia’s cash, subtracted the long-term debt from it, and arrived at an equity value of $1.97 trillion. After that, we divided Nvidia’s equity value by the number of its shares and arrived at the intrinsic value of $79.33 per share. This means that Nvidia’s stock is overvalued by around 32%. That’s why we believe that Nvidia is a SELL right now.Nvidia’s Valuation (Bears of Wall Street)It’s also important to note that at a market cap of nearly ~$2. 65 trillion, it’s hard to justify Nvidia’s current price, even after the recent decline caused by the latest earnings report. The whole generative AI market under one of the most optimistic assumptions is expected to be worth $1.3 trillion in 2032. In addition, the overall cloud market could be worth only as much as $1.8 trillion by 2029. Considering this, Nvidia’s current valuation today simply doesn’t make a lot of sense to us.Risks To Our Bearish ThesisDespite all the negativity, several risks could undermine our bearish thesis. The most obvious is the potential greater ramp-up of sales in the second half of the year, which would make the market excited again about Nvidia’s growth prospects. The potential delay of Blackwell shipments could be offset by the potential increase of the company’s Hopper series GPUs, especially since their supply and availability have improved. This could ensure that Nvidia performs well in Q3, and makes investors once again excited about investing into its shares if the beat is significant.We also know from the latest conference call that the demand for Blackwell is above supply. If no further delays are announced, then when the Q3 report comes out, Nvidia could also announce a far more optimistic guidance for Q4, which could help revive the stock’s momentum later this year.Final ThoughtsNvidia’s biggest issue is that its stock is priced for perfection, and any earnings report that includes an earnings beat without an impressive margin and relatively disappointing guidance would likely prevent a further appreciation of shares. This has been the case with the latest earnings report and the subsequent reaction of the market to it.The macro challenges are also not going anywhere away, and potential catalysts might not even materialize in the end if the company fails to grow its sales due to potential supply issues or delays. That is why Nvidia’s upside is not guaranteed and until the Q3 numbers come out, its shares could continue to experience weakness. This is why at the current price, Nvidia stock is a SELL for us.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":351,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":347588520194368,"gmtCreate":1725884011157,"gmtModify":1725884014240,"author":{"id":"3574807189087941","authorId":"3574807189087941","name":"Icywinddale","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/3bd2fbf9d90e26b2f600b2c5d7c54244","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574807189087941","authorIdStr":"3574807189087941"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nonsense","listText":"Nonsense","text":"Nonsense","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/347588520194368","repostId":"2466562131","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2466562131","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Dow Jones publishes the world’s most trusted business news and financial information in a variety of media.","home_visible":0,"media_name":"Dow Jones","id":"106","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99"},"pubTimestamp":1725881673,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2466562131?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2024-09-09 19:34","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Nvidia’s Dominance Could Be Ending, Citi Says. The Stock Rises Anyway","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2466562131","media":"Dow Jones","summary":"Nvidia looked set to pare back some of its recent losses on Monday, but analysts at Citi are warning that the artificial intelligence-fueled winning streak that powered the chip maker to a trillion-dollar valuation is coming to an end.The stock climbed 1.5% to $104.39 in premarket trading. On Friday, it had dropped 4.1% to cap off a nightmarish week.Nvidia shares have tumbled 20% over the past two weeks, dragged down by worries that the AI investing craze that has powered the market higher ever since ChatGPT launched in November 2022 could soon be about to fizzle out.The expectation that the Federal Reserve will soon start slashing interest rates has also accelerated a rotation out of the once-dominant Magnificent 7 group of megacap tech stocks. Citi analysts said in a research note on Friday that they don't expect Nvidia to carry on being a massive driver of returns for the benchmark S&P 500 index, even though they're predicting that its profit growth will remain strong.","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Nvidia looked set to pare back some of its recent losses on Monday, but analysts at Citi are warning that the artificial intelligence-fueled winning streak that powered the chip maker to a trillion-dollar valuation is coming to an end.</p><p>The stock climbed 1% to $104 in premarket trading. On Friday, it had dropped 4.1% to cap off a nightmarish week.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/cc31cf26753a43584c0a2691896657fe\" tg-width=\"784\" tg-height=\"830\"/></p><p>Nvidia shares have tumbled 20% over the past two weeks, dragged down by worries that the AI investing craze that has powered the market higher ever since ChatGPT launched in November 2022 could soon be about to fizzle out.</p><p>The expectation that the Federal Reserve will soon start slashing interest rates has also accelerated a rotation out of the once-dominant Magnificent 7 group of megacap tech stocks. Citi analysts said in a research note on Friday that they don&#39;t expect Nvidia to carry on being a massive driver of returns for the benchmark S&amp;P 500 index, even though they&#39;re predicting that its profit growth will remain strong.</p><p>&#34;Our sense is that Nvidia is becoming just another large-cap growth stock,&#34; a team led by U.S. equity strategist Scott Chronert wrote. &#34;A simple look at the deceleration in rate of forward guidance increases suggests that its most profound performance and fundamental impacts on index price action may be behind it.&#34;</p><p>They added that the selloff after Nvidia&#39;s solid, but not spectacular, earnings is a sign that the semiconductor giant&#39;s status as an AI darling is fading.</p><p>Among other chip makers, Advanced Micro Devices rose 1% ahead of the opening bell. Broadcom climbed 0.9%, and Qualcomm was up 1.2%. Futures for the S&amp;P 500 ticked up 0.6%.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Nvidia’s Dominance Could Be Ending, Citi Says. The Stock Rises Anyway</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNvidia’s Dominance Could Be Ending, Citi Says. The Stock Rises Anyway\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Dow Jones </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2024-09-09 19:34</p>\n</div>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>Nvidia looked set to pare back some of its recent losses on Monday, but analysts at Citi are warning that the artificial intelligence-fueled winning streak that powered the chip maker to a trillion-dollar valuation is coming to an end.</p><p>The stock climbed 1% to $104 in premarket trading. On Friday, it had dropped 4.1% to cap off a nightmarish week.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/cc31cf26753a43584c0a2691896657fe\" tg-width=\"784\" tg-height=\"830\"/></p><p>Nvidia shares have tumbled 20% over the past two weeks, dragged down by worries that the AI investing craze that has powered the market higher ever since ChatGPT launched in November 2022 could soon be about to fizzle out.</p><p>The expectation that the Federal Reserve will soon start slashing interest rates has also accelerated a rotation out of the once-dominant Magnificent 7 group of megacap tech stocks. Citi analysts said in a research note on Friday that they don&#39;t expect Nvidia to carry on being a massive driver of returns for the benchmark S&amp;P 500 index, even though they&#39;re predicting that its profit growth will remain strong.</p><p>&#34;Our sense is that Nvidia is becoming just another large-cap growth stock,&#34; a team led by U.S. equity strategist Scott Chronert wrote. &#34;A simple look at the deceleration in rate of forward guidance increases suggests that its most profound performance and fundamental impacts on index price action may be behind it.&#34;</p><p>They added that the selloff after Nvidia&#39;s solid, but not spectacular, earnings is a sign that the semiconductor giant&#39;s status as an AI darling is fading.</p><p>Among other chip makers, Advanced Micro Devices rose 1% ahead of the opening bell. Broadcom climbed 0.9%, and Qualcomm was up 1.2%. Futures for the S&amp;P 500 ticked up 0.6%.</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"IE00BWXC8680.SGD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A5\" (SGD) ACC","IE00BK4W5M84.HKD":"HSBC GLOBAL FUNDS ICAV US EQUITY INDEX \"HC\" (HKD) ACC","LU0466842654.USD":"HSBC ISLAMIC GLOBAL EQUITY INDEX \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU1852331112.SGD":"Blackrock World Technology Fund A2 SGD-H","IE00BD6J9T35.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN NEXT GENERATION MOBILITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE00BGHQF631.EUR":"GUINNESS GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME \"C\" (EUR) ACC","IE00BMPRXQ63.HKD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN NEXT GENERATION CONNECTIVITY FUND \"A\" (HKDHDG) ACC","IE00BVYPNV92.GBP":"GUINNESS GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME \"C\" (GBP) ACC","LU0444971666.USD":"天利全球科技基金","LU1064131342.USD":"Fullerton Lux Funds - Global Absolute Alpha A Acc USD","IE00B3PB1722.GBP":"GUINNESS GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME \"C\" (GBP) INC","IE00B42XCP33.USD":"GUINNESS GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME \"C\" (USD) INC","IE00BKVL7J92.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - US Equity Sustainability Leaders A Acc USD","IE00B7KXQ091.USD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Inc USD","BK4543":"AI","LU1316542783.SGD":"Janus Henderson Horizon Global Technology Leaders A2 SGD","IE00BZ9MQY76.HKD":"FTGF CLEARBRIDGE US AGGRESSIVE GROWTH \"A\" (HKD) ACC","IE00B4JS1V06.HKD":"JANUS HENDERSON BALANCED \"A2\" (HKD) ACC","LU2458330169.SGD":"FRANKLIN SHARIAH TECHNOLOGY \"A\" (SGD) ACC","IE0004086264.USD":"BNY MELLON GLOBAL OPPORTUNITIES \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4503":"景林资产持仓","LU2458330243.SGD":"FRANKLIN SHARIAH TECHNOLOGY \"A-H1\" (SGDHDG) ACC","LU0234570918.USD":"高盛全球核心股票组合Acc Close","IE00B894F039.SGD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - US Aggressive Growth A Acc SGD-H","LU0170899867.USD":"EASTSPRING INVESTMENTS WORLD VALUE EQUITY  \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0642271901.SGD":"Janus Henderson Horizon Global Technology Leaders A2 SGD-H","IE00BDCRKT87.USD":"PINEBRIDGE GLOBAL DYNAMIC ASSET ALLOCATION \"ADC\" (USD) INC","IE00BVYPNW00.USD":"GUINNESS GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME \"C\" (USD) ACC","IE00BDGV0183.EUR":"GUINNESS GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME \"C\" (EUR) INC","IE00BK4W5L77.USD":"HSBC GLOBAL FUNDS ICAV US EQUITY INDEX \"HC\" (USD) ACC","LU0719512351.SGD":"JPMorgan Funds - US Technology A (acc) SGD","LU0823421333.USD":"BNP PARIBAS DISRUPTIVE TECHNOLOGY \"C\" (USD) ACC","IE00BZ199S13.USD":"BNY MELLON MOBILITY INNOVATION \"B\" (USD) ACC","LU1803068979.SGD":"FTIF - Franklin Technology A (acc) SGD-H1","LU0048584097.USD":"FIDELITY FUNDS  GLOBAL THEMATIC OPPORTUNITIES \"A\" (USD) INC","IE00BJJMRY28.SGD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Inc SGD","NVDA":"英伟达","BK4549":"软银资本持仓","LU0823421416.USD":"BNP PARIBAS DISRUPTIVE TECHNOLOGY \"C\" (USD) INC","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","LU0234572021.USD":"高盛美国核心股票组合Acc","LU0109392836.USD":"富兰克林科技股A","IE00BZ1G4Q59.USD":"LEGG MASON CLEARBRIDGE US EQUITY SUSTAINABILITY LEADER \"A\"(USD) INC (A)"},"source_url":"https://dowjonesnews.com/newdjn/logon.aspx?AL=N","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2466562131","content_text":"Nvidia looked set to pare back some of its recent losses on Monday, but analysts at Citi are warning that the artificial intelligence-fueled winning streak that powered the chip maker to a trillion-dollar valuation is coming to an end.The stock climbed 1% to $104 in premarket trading. On Friday, it had dropped 4.1% to cap off a nightmarish week.Nvidia shares have tumbled 20% over the past two weeks, dragged down by worries that the AI investing craze that has powered the market higher ever since ChatGPT launched in November 2022 could soon be about to fizzle out.The expectation that the Federal Reserve will soon start slashing interest rates has also accelerated a rotation out of the once-dominant Magnificent 7 group of megacap tech stocks. Citi analysts said in a research note on Friday that they don't expect Nvidia to carry on being a massive driver of returns for the benchmark S&P 500 index, even though they're predicting that its profit growth will remain strong.\"Our sense is that Nvidia is becoming just another large-cap growth stock,\" a team led by U.S. equity strategist Scott Chronert wrote. \"A simple look at the deceleration in rate of forward guidance increases suggests that its most profound performance and fundamental impacts on index price action may be behind it.\"They added that the selloff after Nvidia's solid, but not spectacular, earnings is a sign that the semiconductor giant's status as an AI darling is fading.Among other chip makers, Advanced Micro Devices rose 1% ahead of the opening bell. Broadcom climbed 0.9%, and Qualcomm was up 1.2%. Futures for the S&P 500 ticked up 0.6%.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":421,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":398140816592984,"gmtCreate":1738227758347,"gmtModify":1738227973923,"author":{"id":"3574807189087941","authorId":"3574807189087941","name":"Icywinddale","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/3bd2fbf9d90e26b2f600b2c5d7c54244","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574807189087941","authorIdStr":"3574807189087941"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Never waste your precious time on these kind stupid article. Totally nonsense. Tell something we don't know.","listText":"Never waste your precious time on these kind stupid article. Totally nonsense. Tell something we don't know.","text":"Never waste your precious time on these kind stupid article. Totally nonsense. Tell something we don't know.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/398140816592984","repostId":"1101465849","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1101465849","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1738224612,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1101465849?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2025-01-30 16:10","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Nvidia Bearish Momentum Explained","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1101465849","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryNVIDIA’s meteoric rise has been fueled by the generative AI boom, but history shows that tech hype cycles often result in overcapacity.15% of its Q3 2024 revenue came from China and Hong Kong. ","content":"<html><head></head><body><h2 id=\"id_2576559629\">Summary</h2><ul style=\"\"><li><p>NVIDIA’s meteoric rise has been fueled by the generative AI boom, but history shows that tech hype cycles often result in overcapacity.</p></li><li><p>15% of its Q3 2024 revenue came from China and Hong Kong. Tightened U.S. export restrictions on advanced chips to China could shrink this critical market further. If restrictions extend to Blackwell chips, this could limit growth and lead to unsold inventory.</p></li><li><p>NVDA stock trades at a forward P/S ratio far above industry peers, priced as if AI adoption will grow exponentially for years. This valuation leaves little room for error.</p></li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/f8271f5218e30171f478337709702edd\" alt=\"JHVEPhoto\" title=\"JHVEPhoto\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"500\"/><span>JHVEPhoto</span></p><p>The market is testing a new narrative for NVIDIA. This will be a bull and bear ferocious fight, but the current bear thinking is the following:</p><h2 id=\"id_357161106\">1. Overcapacity Risk in Semiconductors: The AI Bubble Narrative</h2><p><strong>Key Issue: Overinvestment Based on Overhyped Demand</strong></p><p>NVIDIA’s meteoric rise has been fueled by the generative AI boom, but history shows that tech hype cycles often result in overcapacity (e.g., the dot-com bubble, cryptocurrency mining GPUs).</p><p>Revenue from Data Center GPUs accounted for 87% of total revenue in Q3 FY2024, making NVIDIA heavily reliant on AI demand continuing indefinitely.</p><p>A 10% slowdown in AI investments or hyperscaler spending (e.g., Microsoft (MSFT), Amazon (AMZN), Google (GOOG, GOOGL)) could drastically impact NVIDIA’s revenue.</p><p>Overcommitted to Supply: NVIDIA has locked in $28.9 billion in supply commitments, expecting ongoing high demand for its Hopper and Blackwell architectures.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/f8d33a2cf85359c91492e53b0a25cd64\" alt=\"Nvidia purchase obligations\" title=\"Nvidia purchase obligations\" tg-width=\"940\" tg-height=\"173\"/><span>Nvidia purchase obligations</span></p><p>If demand slows or product transitions are delayed, these commitments could lead to massive inventory write-downs, hurting margins.</p><p><strong>Why It Matters for a Short Thesis:</strong></p><p>The semiconductor market is notoriously cyclical. Any downturn in demand could expose NVIDIA to falling prices, unsold inventory, and margin compression. Overcapacity could turn into a pricing war with competitors like AMD and Intel (INTC), further eroding profitability.</p><h2 id=\"id_3346631318\">2. NVIDIA’s Dependence on Hyperscalers and China</h2><p><strong>Key Issue: Revenue Concentration in Fragile Markets</strong></p><p>NVIDIA’s largest customers, such as Amazon, Microsoft, and Google, account for a significant portion of its revenue. If even one reduces AI-related spending due to budget cuts or cost discipline, the effect on NVIDIA would be severe.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/76daa2c745b22e4f279e5535a5f895fa\" alt=\"Nvidia Q3 2024 revenue by customer\" title=\"Nvidia Q3 2024 revenue by customer\" tg-width=\"940\" tg-height=\"143\"/><span>Nvidia Q3 2024 revenue by customer</span></p><p>15% of NVIDIA’s Q3 2024 revenue came from China and Hong Kong. Tightened U.S. export restrictions on advanced chips to China could shrink this critical market further. If restrictions extend to Blackwell chips (NVIDIA’s next-gen architecture), this could limit growth and lead to unsold inventory.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/c8582bf3c06050a3056b08a9aebbcd73\" alt=\"Nvidia Q3 2024 revenue by country\" title=\"Nvidia Q3 2024 revenue by country\" tg-width=\"940\" tg-height=\"190\"/><span>Nvidia Q3 2024 revenue by country</span></p><p><strong>Why It Matters for a Short Thesis:</strong></p><p>Geopolitical risk, combined with hyperscaler reliance, creates an unsustainable revenue model in a downturn. NVIDIA’s revenue base might not be diversified enough.</p><h2 id=\"id_1901870406\">3. Valuation Disconnect: Growth Premium Priced for Perfection</h2><p><strong>Key Issue: An Unsustainable Price-to-Sales (P/S) Ratio</strong></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/5b251921db83bf15fef6652dad5b5b42\" alt=\"Nvidia revenue estimate, price-to-sales ratio\" title=\"Nvidia revenue estimate, price-to-sales ratio\" tg-width=\"940\" tg-height=\"84\"/><span>Nvidia revenue estimate, price-to-sales ratio</span></p><p>NVIDIA’s stock trades at a forward P/S ratio far above industry peers, priced as if AI adoption will grow exponentially for years. This valuation leaves little room for error.</p><p>Market expectations assume continued exponential growth in AI-related revenue. Any sign of slowing demand or margin compression could cause a violent repricing of the stock as investors adjust to more realistic growth assumptions. The market isn’t pricing in the risks of:</p><ul style=\"\"><li><p>AI demand plateauing</p></li><li><p>Cyclical overcapacity in GPUs</p></li><li><p>Geopolitical and competitive pressures</p></li></ul><p><strong>Why It Matters for a Short Thesis:</strong></p><p>NVIDIA’s valuation could collapse under its own weight if the AI hype cycle wanes or fails to deliver on promises.</p><h2 id=\"id_4015481009\">4. Structural Weaknesses in Business Model</h2><p><strong>Key Issue: Dependence on High Margins and R&amp;D Investments</strong></p><p>NVIDIA has exceptional gross margins (~74.5% in Q3 FY2024), but these margins are vulnerable to:</p><ul style=\"\"><li><p>Increased competition from AMD, Intel, and emerging players</p></li><li><p>Overcapacity, leading to price wars</p></li><li><p>Rising R&amp;D and supply costs to maintain its technological edge</p></li><li><p>R&amp;D bloat: R&amp;D spending has ballooned to $9.2 billion for FY2024 (up 48% YoY)</p></li></ul><p>If AI demand falters, these costs become unsustainable.</p><p>Product Transition Complexity: NVIDIA’s accelerated product cadence (e.g., Hopper, Blackwell) increases risks of inventory obsolescence, supply chain inefficiencies, and customer confusion.</p><p><strong>Why It Matters for a Short Thesis:</strong></p><p>Any disruption in high-margin segments or R&amp;D inefficiencies could create cascading financial problems for NVIDIA.</p><h2 id=\"id_3212871234\">Catalysts for the Short Thesis</h2><ul style=\"\"><li><p><strong>Demand Plateau:</strong> AI adoption slows as hyperscalers optimize costs and customers hesitate on ROI for generative AI investments.</p></li><li><p><strong>Geopolitical Restrictions:</strong> Escalating U.S.-China tensions lead to further export bans, limiting NVIDIA’s market.</p></li><li><p><strong>Earnings Miss:</strong> A single revenue or margin miss due to overcapacity or demand shortfall could trigger a rapid market repricing.</p></li><li><p><strong>Valuation Correction:</strong> Investors may rotate out of “story stocks” like NVIDIA during a broader market downturn.</p></li></ul><h2 id=\"id_2732796899\">Impact on thesis</h2><p>I am not really picking on this whole battle, I am only trying to collect my thoughts and understand what the emerging side (bears) is seeing. I think the previous paragraphs capture it well. Going forward, the DeepSeek developments will likely hang over NVIDIA. The cost efficiency argument on the surface means that AI models require fewer GPUs per training cycle, and given that Hyperscalers optimize for cost savings, we can see them reducing total spending on NVIDIA’s chips sometime in the near future. Even a small reduction vis-a-vis expectations can drive a brutal repricing of the company’s valuation.</p><p>Nevertheless, I think that the Jevons Paradox will prevail in the long term. As AI model training becomes cheaper, demand for NVIDIA GPUs will increase, not decrease. The expanded accessibility and new use cases will likely make it happen.</p><p>That said, it is important to understand that there is likely to be turbulence as market participants try to digest this important piece of news. There will likely be moments of violent re-pricings at some of the next few quarterly earnings calls if there is any hint of spending cuts by Hyperscallers. I recommend keeping an eye on hyperscalers&#39; CapEx; if they reduce total spending, NVIDIA might be hit. Also, keep an eye on abnormal price cuts in GPUs. Both can be a flag for margin compression. In my opinion, this can turn out to be a buying opportunity if the Jevons Paradox holds. At this moment, I think it will, but it will be critical to correctly frame the time horizon for these swings.</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1728464409321","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Nvidia Bearish Momentum Explained</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNvidia Bearish Momentum Explained\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2025-01-30 16:10 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4752904-nvidia-bearish-momentum-explained><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryNVIDIA’s meteoric rise has been fueled by the generative AI boom, but history shows that tech hype cycles often result in overcapacity.15% of its Q3 2024 revenue came from China and Hong Kong. ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4752904-nvidia-bearish-momentum-explained\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NVDA":"英伟达"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4752904-nvidia-bearish-momentum-explained","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1101465849","content_text":"SummaryNVIDIA’s meteoric rise has been fueled by the generative AI boom, but history shows that tech hype cycles often result in overcapacity.15% of its Q3 2024 revenue came from China and Hong Kong. Tightened U.S. export restrictions on advanced chips to China could shrink this critical market further. If restrictions extend to Blackwell chips, this could limit growth and lead to unsold inventory.NVDA stock trades at a forward P/S ratio far above industry peers, priced as if AI adoption will grow exponentially for years. This valuation leaves little room for error.JHVEPhotoThe market is testing a new narrative for NVIDIA. This will be a bull and bear ferocious fight, but the current bear thinking is the following:1. Overcapacity Risk in Semiconductors: The AI Bubble NarrativeKey Issue: Overinvestment Based on Overhyped DemandNVIDIA’s meteoric rise has been fueled by the generative AI boom, but history shows that tech hype cycles often result in overcapacity (e.g., the dot-com bubble, cryptocurrency mining GPUs).Revenue from Data Center GPUs accounted for 87% of total revenue in Q3 FY2024, making NVIDIA heavily reliant on AI demand continuing indefinitely.A 10% slowdown in AI investments or hyperscaler spending (e.g., Microsoft (MSFT), Amazon (AMZN), Google (GOOG, GOOGL)) could drastically impact NVIDIA’s revenue.Overcommitted to Supply: NVIDIA has locked in $28.9 billion in supply commitments, expecting ongoing high demand for its Hopper and Blackwell architectures.Nvidia purchase obligationsIf demand slows or product transitions are delayed, these commitments could lead to massive inventory write-downs, hurting margins.Why It Matters for a Short Thesis:The semiconductor market is notoriously cyclical. Any downturn in demand could expose NVIDIA to falling prices, unsold inventory, and margin compression. Overcapacity could turn into a pricing war with competitors like AMD and Intel (INTC), further eroding profitability.2. NVIDIA’s Dependence on Hyperscalers and ChinaKey Issue: Revenue Concentration in Fragile MarketsNVIDIA’s largest customers, such as Amazon, Microsoft, and Google, account for a significant portion of its revenue. If even one reduces AI-related spending due to budget cuts or cost discipline, the effect on NVIDIA would be severe.Nvidia Q3 2024 revenue by customer15% of NVIDIA’s Q3 2024 revenue came from China and Hong Kong. Tightened U.S. export restrictions on advanced chips to China could shrink this critical market further. If restrictions extend to Blackwell chips (NVIDIA’s next-gen architecture), this could limit growth and lead to unsold inventory.Nvidia Q3 2024 revenue by countryWhy It Matters for a Short Thesis:Geopolitical risk, combined with hyperscaler reliance, creates an unsustainable revenue model in a downturn. NVIDIA’s revenue base might not be diversified enough.3. Valuation Disconnect: Growth Premium Priced for PerfectionKey Issue: An Unsustainable Price-to-Sales (P/S) RatioNvidia revenue estimate, price-to-sales ratioNVIDIA’s stock trades at a forward P/S ratio far above industry peers, priced as if AI adoption will grow exponentially for years. This valuation leaves little room for error.Market expectations assume continued exponential growth in AI-related revenue. Any sign of slowing demand or margin compression could cause a violent repricing of the stock as investors adjust to more realistic growth assumptions. The market isn’t pricing in the risks of:AI demand plateauingCyclical overcapacity in GPUsGeopolitical and competitive pressuresWhy It Matters for a Short Thesis:NVIDIA’s valuation could collapse under its own weight if the AI hype cycle wanes or fails to deliver on promises.4. Structural Weaknesses in Business ModelKey Issue: Dependence on High Margins and R&D InvestmentsNVIDIA has exceptional gross margins (~74.5% in Q3 FY2024), but these margins are vulnerable to:Increased competition from AMD, Intel, and emerging playersOvercapacity, leading to price warsRising R&D and supply costs to maintain its technological edgeR&D bloat: R&D spending has ballooned to $9.2 billion for FY2024 (up 48% YoY)If AI demand falters, these costs become unsustainable.Product Transition Complexity: NVIDIA’s accelerated product cadence (e.g., Hopper, Blackwell) increases risks of inventory obsolescence, supply chain inefficiencies, and customer confusion.Why It Matters for a Short Thesis:Any disruption in high-margin segments or R&D inefficiencies could create cascading financial problems for NVIDIA.Catalysts for the Short ThesisDemand Plateau: AI adoption slows as hyperscalers optimize costs and customers hesitate on ROI for generative AI investments.Geopolitical Restrictions: Escalating U.S.-China tensions lead to further export bans, limiting NVIDIA’s market.Earnings Miss: A single revenue or margin miss due to overcapacity or demand shortfall could trigger a rapid market repricing.Valuation Correction: Investors may rotate out of “story stocks” like NVIDIA during a broader market downturn.Impact on thesisI am not really picking on this whole battle, I am only trying to collect my thoughts and understand what the emerging side (bears) is seeing. I think the previous paragraphs capture it well. Going forward, the DeepSeek developments will likely hang over NVIDIA. The cost efficiency argument on the surface means that AI models require fewer GPUs per training cycle, and given that Hyperscalers optimize for cost savings, we can see them reducing total spending on NVIDIA’s chips sometime in the near future. Even a small reduction vis-a-vis expectations can drive a brutal repricing of the company’s valuation.Nevertheless, I think that the Jevons Paradox will prevail in the long term. As AI model training becomes cheaper, demand for NVIDIA GPUs will increase, not decrease. The expanded accessibility and new use cases will likely make it happen.That said, it is important to understand that there is likely to be turbulence as market participants try to digest this important piece of news. There will likely be moments of violent re-pricings at some of the next few quarterly earnings calls if there is any hint of spending cuts by Hyperscallers. I recommend keeping an eye on hyperscalers' CapEx; if they reduce total spending, NVIDIA might be hit. Also, keep an eye on abnormal price cuts in GPUs. Both can be a flag for margin compression. In my opinion, this can turn out to be a buying opportunity if the Jevons Paradox holds. At this moment, I think it will, but it will be critical to correctly frame the time horizon for these swings.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":11,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":377631316160752,"gmtCreate":1733224759620,"gmtModify":1733230487611,"author":{"id":"3574807189087941","authorId":"3574807189087941","name":"Icywinddale","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/3bd2fbf9d90e26b2f600b2c5d7c54244","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574807189087941","authorIdStr":"3574807189087941"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Who is ‘Trend Force'? Only Chidren believe in this kind stupid news.","listText":"Who is ‘Trend Force'? Only Chidren believe in this kind stupid news.","text":"Who is ‘Trend Force'? Only Chidren believe in this kind stupid news.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/377631316160752","repostId":"1144849219","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1144849219","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1733206383,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1144849219?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2024-12-03 14:13","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Production Hurdles for Nvidia's GB200 Spark Rumors of Microsoft Cutting Orders","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1144849219","media":"Trend Force","summary":"As demand for artificial intelligence continues to surge, the industry’s appetite for high-performance computing chips has grown increasingly intense. According to a report by the Commercial Times, NV","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>As demand for artificial intelligence continues to surge, the industry’s appetite for high-performance computing chips has grown increasingly intense. According to a report by the Commercial Times, NVIDIA’s next-generation Blackwell architecture chip, the GB200, has encountered new technical hurdles in its mass production plans. In response, CSP provider Microsoft is reportedly scaling back its orders.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/1d68eeb02c6b163c51fbae9253b663f6\" alt=\"NVIDIA Blackwell\" title=\"NVIDIA Blackwell\" tg-width=\"624\" tg-height=\"351\"/><span>NVIDIA Blackwell</span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Sources within the supply chain cited by Commercial Times reveal that the issue lies in the backplane connection design. The testing yield for cartridge connectors provided by U.S. Tier-1 supplier Amphenol has been suboptimal, potentially delaying mass production until March 2025.</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">The GB200 chips employ TSMC’s cutting-edge CoWoS-L advanced packaging technology, incorporating a highly complex cabinet design. However, this complexity has led to various challenges, including overheating in chip design, leakage issues in UQDs, and now, insufficient yield rates for copper cables. While NVIDIA announced during its recent earnings call that Blackwell production is fully underway, supply constraints remain a pressing issue that the company is working to resolve with its partners.</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">The same report, citing supply chain sources, attributes the issue to a newly developed cartridge connector module. The significant specification upgrade of the GB200 has increased production complexity, resulting in poor yield rates and failed testing, creating a major bottleneck.</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">NVIDIA is actively seeking alternative suppliers, but issues such as patent restrictions and capacity ramp-up delays are expected to prolong resolution efforts. While the report notes that chip production schedules remain unaffected, supply chain checks indicate that Microsoft has already cut its orders for NVIDIA by 40%, reallocating some to the GB300 chips set for release in mid-2025.</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1724652185079","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Production Hurdles for Nvidia's GB200 Spark Rumors of Microsoft Cutting Orders</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nProduction Hurdles for Nvidia's GB200 Spark Rumors of Microsoft Cutting Orders\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-12-03 14:13 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.trendforce.com/news/2024/12/02/news-production-hurdles-for-gb200-spark-rumors-of-microsoft-cutting-orders/><strong>Trend Force</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>As demand for artificial intelligence continues to surge, the industry’s appetite for high-performance computing chips has grown increasingly intense. According to a report by the Commercial Times, ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.trendforce.com/news/2024/12/02/news-production-hurdles-for-gb200-spark-rumors-of-microsoft-cutting-orders/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://www.trendforce.com/news/2024/12/02/news-production-hurdles-for-gb200-spark-rumors-of-microsoft-cutting-orders/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1144849219","content_text":"As demand for artificial intelligence continues to surge, the industry’s appetite for high-performance computing chips has grown increasingly intense. According to a report by the Commercial Times, NVIDIA’s next-generation Blackwell architecture chip, the GB200, has encountered new technical hurdles in its mass production plans. In response, CSP provider Microsoft is reportedly scaling back its orders.NVIDIA BlackwellSources within the supply chain cited by Commercial Times reveal that the issue lies in the backplane connection design. The testing yield for cartridge connectors provided by U.S. Tier-1 supplier Amphenol has been suboptimal, potentially delaying mass production until March 2025.The GB200 chips employ TSMC’s cutting-edge CoWoS-L advanced packaging technology, incorporating a highly complex cabinet design. However, this complexity has led to various challenges, including overheating in chip design, leakage issues in UQDs, and now, insufficient yield rates for copper cables. While NVIDIA announced during its recent earnings call that Blackwell production is fully underway, supply constraints remain a pressing issue that the company is working to resolve with its partners.The same report, citing supply chain sources, attributes the issue to a newly developed cartridge connector module. The significant specification upgrade of the GB200 has increased production complexity, resulting in poor yield rates and failed testing, creating a major bottleneck.NVIDIA is actively seeking alternative suppliers, but issues such as patent restrictions and capacity ramp-up delays are expected to prolong resolution efforts. While the report notes that chip production schedules remain unaffected, supply chain checks indicate that Microsoft has already cut its orders for NVIDIA by 40%, reallocating some to the GB300 chips set for release in mid-2025.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":343,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":365986993258656,"gmtCreate":1730352866695,"gmtModify":1730352870520,"author":{"id":"3574807189087941","authorId":"3574807189087941","name":"Icywinddale","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/3bd2fbf9d90e26b2f600b2c5d7c54244","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574807189087941","authorIdStr":"3574807189087941"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Low level&nbsp;","listText":"Low level&nbsp;","text":"Low level","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/365986993258656","repostId":"1107275997","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1107275997","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1730347534,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1107275997?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2024-10-31 12:05","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Nvidia: Forward Earnings Looking More Uncertain","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1107275997","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryNvidia Corporation’s forward EPS estimates are one of the most uncertain among the Magnificent 7 stocks and among other chip stocks.The highest EPS estimate for the fiscal year ending Jan 2027 ","content":"<html><head></head><body><h2 id=\"id_2924817183\">Summary</h2><ul style=\"\"><li><p>Nvidia Corporation’s forward EPS estimates are one of the most uncertain among the Magnificent 7 stocks and among other chip stocks.</p></li><li><p>The highest EPS estimate for the fiscal year ending Jan 2027 is $7.29 which is 4 times the lowest EPS estimate of $1.81.</p></li><li><p>Other big tech stocks have a variation of 20% to 60% between low and high EPS estimates.</p></li><li><p>This shows the uncertainty regarding future market share and margins for Nvidia as AMD, Intel, and other tech players launch their own AI chips.</p></li><li><p>The recent bull run has made NVDA stock expensive while the forward earnings are uncertain, which can cause a major correction in the stock.</p></li></ul><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/f1cd66fb76fb9c3656779aa6ac145d6d\" alt=\"Nvidia headquarters in Santa Clara, California, USA\" title=\"Nvidia headquarters in Santa Clara, California, USA\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"500\"/><span>Nvidia headquarters in Santa Clara, California, USA</span></p><p></p><p><strong>Nvidia Corporation</strong> (NASDAQ:NVDA) stock has been one of the best performers over the last two years since the first major large language models, or LLMs, came to the market and launched a major AI-driven bull run. However, there is a major red flag in Nvidia due to uncertainty in forward earnings. There is a very high variation between the bull and bear cases for the stock. Most of this variation comes due to uncertainty in future market share and the ability of Nvidia to retain its juicy margins. The company has been able to report over 70% gross margins for the past few quarters. In the previous article, it was mentioned that the demand side for AI chips can face challenges as hyperscalers optimize their AI investments.</p><p>Competitors like Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) and Intel (INTC) are putting their best efforts into launching better AI chips. Being the underdog in this segment, they would be ready to earn lower margins, making the overall segment more competitive. Other big tech companies have been working on their own AI chips, and they have the talent and resources to deliver some excellent products. Nvidia&#39;s CUDA moat is still strong, but the uncertainty in forward earnings should be a warning for investors. At the same time, the stock is trading at close to 30 times the consensus EPS estimate for the fiscal year ending January 2027, which is one of the highest within the tech sector. According to this metric, Nvidia is 75% pricier than Alphabet (GOOGL) (GOOG), which can cause a short-term correction in Nvidia stock.</p><h2 id=\"id_564023179\">Uncertain forward earnings are a big red flag</h2><p>Nvidia&#39;s has delivered great results over the last few quarters, which has helped the stock deliver over 130% price growth in YTD. However, future earnings are becoming more uncertain as different analysts have very different forward outlooks for the company. We might disagree over the views of some analysts, but the huge variation in future EPS estimates is a clear warning sign for investors. As shown below, none of the other big tech stocks have anything close to Nvidia&#39;s forward earnings uncertainty.</p><p><strong>Nvidia&#39;s EPS estimate</strong></p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/d3d9b95d53a545ead96236dc2753a978\" alt=\"Nvidia&#39;s forward earnings estimate.\" title=\"Nvidia&#39;s forward earnings estimate.\" tg-width=\"1036\" tg-height=\"181\"/><span>Nvidia&#39;s forward earnings estimate.</span></p><p></p><p>A total of 28 analysts have given their estimates for Nvidia&#39;s EPS for the fiscal year ending Jan 2027. The lowest EPS estimate is $1.81 while the highest estimate is $7.29. Hence, the highest forward EPS estimate is 4X that of the low estimate. All the analysts have done a very in-depth analysis of the company, and yet, we see a massive variation in future earnings estimates. For most of the other tech stocks, the variation in low and high estimates is only 20%-60%. Higher forward EPS uncertainty should make the stock cheaper, but on the contrary, Nvidia is trading at one of the highest forward P/E ratios.</p><p><strong>AMD&#39;s EPS estimate</strong></p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/03b8bf26eecf70de5756a2eee12c0149\" alt=\"AMD&#39;s forward EPS estimate.\" title=\"AMD&#39;s forward EPS estimate.\" tg-width=\"873\" tg-height=\"181\"/><span>AMD&#39;s forward EPS estimate.</span></p><p>AMD&#39;s EPS estimate for fiscal year ending Dec 2026 shows the high EPS estimate is 60% more than low estimate.</p><p><strong>Google&#39;s EPS estimate</strong></p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/3212c7fcc43d67625db4c2f74eab4f61\" alt=\"Google forward EPS estimate.\" title=\"Google forward EPS estimate.\" tg-width=\"1048\" tg-height=\"185\"/><span>Google forward EPS estimate.</span></p><p>Alphabet&#39;s EPS estimate for fiscal year ending Dec 2026 shows the high EPS estimate is only 23% more than low estimate. This clearly shows the certainty in forward earnings for Alphabet.</p><p>Higher uncertainty is a sign that analysts are not sure about the ability of Nvidia to retain its current margins as competitive pressure increases over the coming years.</p><h3 id=\"id_3471036033\">Do not underestimate AMD and other competitors</h3><p>In the recent earnings call, AMD increased its 2024 revenue forecast for AI chips to $5 billion from a previous forecast of $4.5 billion. Over this year, AMD&#39;s estimate for AI chip revenue has steadily increased. Back in late 2023, AMD forecasted that it could deliver $2 billion in revenue for AI chips in 2024. It is highly likely that AMD could deliver over $10-$12 billion in total AI revenue for 2025. At this scale, it could be close to 10% of Nvidia&#39;s revenue base from its Data Center segment. New products and aggressive pricing can certainly increase the attraction of AMD&#39;s AI chips.</p><p>Intel is facing an existential crisis as it continues to face headwinds in its foundry business and more questions from investors. The company is leaning on its Gaudi 3 AI chips to improve the sentiment towards the stock. Being an underdog in this segment, Intel could undersell Nvidia by a significant amount.</p><p>Big tech cloud companies like Amazon have been building their own AI chips and have reported that the price/performance metric is 50% cheaper than Nvidia. AI chips are one of the biggest expenses for hyperscalers and if they can reduce the cost of this item, it will help in improving their competitive position and boosting their own margins. It should be noted that Nvidia had earlier mentioned that it receives close to 40%-45% of total Data Center revenue from these hyperscalers.</p><h3 id=\"id_3652408428\">Beating expectations is not enough</h3><p>Nvidia stock hit close to $140 in June 2024. Since then, the stock has seen big swings with 30% correction and has now returned to earlier peak. This is even though the company has been able to easily beat the earnings estimate for the past two quarters.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/c9ce05bf9b215bf61b6798cc66b3c596\" alt=\"Nvidia&#39;s earnings estimate in the upcoming quarter.\" title=\"Nvidia&#39;s earnings estimate in the upcoming quarter.\" tg-width=\"1046\" tg-height=\"246\"/><span>Nvidia&#39;s earnings estimate in the upcoming quarter.</span></p><p>Even a very good earnings result does not guarantee bullish sentiment for the stock because of the current price. Nvidia would need to present a strong argument to sustain the bullish momentum. As mentioned above, there is already a massive variation in the forward earnings estimate for the company. The bear case could easily take over if the company does not meet the earnings expectations or does not beat the expectations by a big enough margin.</p><h3 id=\"id_1561503892\">Nvidia stock is pricier than other stocks</h3><p>The huge variation in forward earnings is already a big red flag for the stock. But even the most bullish EPS estimate for Nvidia will continue to give a pricey valuation multiple for the company. The highest EPS estimate for Nvidia for the fiscal year ending Jan 2027 is $7.2 which gives the forward P/E multiple of close to 20. On the other hand, the lowest EPS estimate for Alphabet for the fiscal year ending Dec 2026 is $9.05 giving the stock a forward P/E multiple of less than 19. Hence, even the most bullish case for Nvidia makes the stock pricier than Alphabet&#39;s lowest EPS estimate for 2 fiscal years ahead. A lot can change in the next 2 years, and I believe Nvidia stock does not offer a sufficient margin of safety.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/555184544ef3b6a44f67c8e8fd587927\" alt=\"Comparison of Nvidia and Alphabet&#39;s EPS and forward PE.\" title=\"Comparison of Nvidia and Alphabet&#39;s EPS and forward PE.\" tg-width=\"974\" tg-height=\"397\"/><span>Comparison of Nvidia and Alphabet&#39;s EPS and forward PE.</span></p><p>There are other options within the AI industry, and Nvidia is expensive at the current price. Investors looking for a more certain forward earnings trend could look at Alphabet, TSMC, and other alternatives.</p><h2 id=\"id_83402496\">Investor Takeaway</h2><p>Nvidia&#39;s forward earnings projections have the highest variation among the big tech stocks. The EPS projection for fiscal year ending Jan 2027 varies from $1.8 to $7.2. Hence, the high case is 4X the low estimate. For most of the other tech companies, the high case is 20% to 50% higher than the low case. Higher variation shows the uncertainty in future earnings as the company faces intense competition from AMD, Intel, and other big tech companies.</p><p>It is highly likely that Nvidia&#39;s market share will contract over the coming quarters, which will also squeeze the margins. The forward P/E multiple for 2 fiscal years ahead for Nvidia is 75% higher than Alphabet. The stock is quite expensive, and even an earnings beat might not be enough to deliver a further bullish run.</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Nvidia: Forward Earnings Looking More Uncertain</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNvidia: Forward Earnings Looking More Uncertain\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-10-31 12:05 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4731124-nvidia-forward-earnings-looking-more-uncertain><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryNvidia Corporation’s forward EPS estimates are one of the most uncertain among the Magnificent 7 stocks and among other chip stocks.The highest EPS estimate for the fiscal year ending Jan 2027 ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4731124-nvidia-forward-earnings-looking-more-uncertain\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NVDA":"英伟达"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4731124-nvidia-forward-earnings-looking-more-uncertain","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1107275997","content_text":"SummaryNvidia Corporation’s forward EPS estimates are one of the most uncertain among the Magnificent 7 stocks and among other chip stocks.The highest EPS estimate for the fiscal year ending Jan 2027 is $7.29 which is 4 times the lowest EPS estimate of $1.81.Other big tech stocks have a variation of 20% to 60% between low and high EPS estimates.This shows the uncertainty regarding future market share and margins for Nvidia as AMD, Intel, and other tech players launch their own AI chips.The recent bull run has made NVDA stock expensive while the forward earnings are uncertain, which can cause a major correction in the stock.Nvidia headquarters in Santa Clara, California, USANvidia Corporation (NASDAQ:NVDA) stock has been one of the best performers over the last two years since the first major large language models, or LLMs, came to the market and launched a major AI-driven bull run. However, there is a major red flag in Nvidia due to uncertainty in forward earnings. There is a very high variation between the bull and bear cases for the stock. Most of this variation comes due to uncertainty in future market share and the ability of Nvidia to retain its juicy margins. The company has been able to report over 70% gross margins for the past few quarters. In the previous article, it was mentioned that the demand side for AI chips can face challenges as hyperscalers optimize their AI investments.Competitors like Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) and Intel (INTC) are putting their best efforts into launching better AI chips. Being the underdog in this segment, they would be ready to earn lower margins, making the overall segment more competitive. Other big tech companies have been working on their own AI chips, and they have the talent and resources to deliver some excellent products. Nvidia's CUDA moat is still strong, but the uncertainty in forward earnings should be a warning for investors. At the same time, the stock is trading at close to 30 times the consensus EPS estimate for the fiscal year ending January 2027, which is one of the highest within the tech sector. According to this metric, Nvidia is 75% pricier than Alphabet (GOOGL) (GOOG), which can cause a short-term correction in Nvidia stock.Uncertain forward earnings are a big red flagNvidia's has delivered great results over the last few quarters, which has helped the stock deliver over 130% price growth in YTD. However, future earnings are becoming more uncertain as different analysts have very different forward outlooks for the company. We might disagree over the views of some analysts, but the huge variation in future EPS estimates is a clear warning sign for investors. As shown below, none of the other big tech stocks have anything close to Nvidia's forward earnings uncertainty.Nvidia's EPS estimateNvidia's forward earnings estimate.A total of 28 analysts have given their estimates for Nvidia's EPS for the fiscal year ending Jan 2027. The lowest EPS estimate is $1.81 while the highest estimate is $7.29. Hence, the highest forward EPS estimate is 4X that of the low estimate. All the analysts have done a very in-depth analysis of the company, and yet, we see a massive variation in future earnings estimates. For most of the other tech stocks, the variation in low and high estimates is only 20%-60%. Higher forward EPS uncertainty should make the stock cheaper, but on the contrary, Nvidia is trading at one of the highest forward P/E ratios.AMD's EPS estimateAMD's forward EPS estimate.AMD's EPS estimate for fiscal year ending Dec 2026 shows the high EPS estimate is 60% more than low estimate.Google's EPS estimateGoogle forward EPS estimate.Alphabet's EPS estimate for fiscal year ending Dec 2026 shows the high EPS estimate is only 23% more than low estimate. This clearly shows the certainty in forward earnings for Alphabet.Higher uncertainty is a sign that analysts are not sure about the ability of Nvidia to retain its current margins as competitive pressure increases over the coming years.Do not underestimate AMD and other competitorsIn the recent earnings call, AMD increased its 2024 revenue forecast for AI chips to $5 billion from a previous forecast of $4.5 billion. Over this year, AMD's estimate for AI chip revenue has steadily increased. Back in late 2023, AMD forecasted that it could deliver $2 billion in revenue for AI chips in 2024. It is highly likely that AMD could deliver over $10-$12 billion in total AI revenue for 2025. At this scale, it could be close to 10% of Nvidia's revenue base from its Data Center segment. New products and aggressive pricing can certainly increase the attraction of AMD's AI chips.Intel is facing an existential crisis as it continues to face headwinds in its foundry business and more questions from investors. The company is leaning on its Gaudi 3 AI chips to improve the sentiment towards the stock. Being an underdog in this segment, Intel could undersell Nvidia by a significant amount.Big tech cloud companies like Amazon have been building their own AI chips and have reported that the price/performance metric is 50% cheaper than Nvidia. AI chips are one of the biggest expenses for hyperscalers and if they can reduce the cost of this item, it will help in improving their competitive position and boosting their own margins. It should be noted that Nvidia had earlier mentioned that it receives close to 40%-45% of total Data Center revenue from these hyperscalers.Beating expectations is not enoughNvidia stock hit close to $140 in June 2024. Since then, the stock has seen big swings with 30% correction and has now returned to earlier peak. This is even though the company has been able to easily beat the earnings estimate for the past two quarters.Nvidia's earnings estimate in the upcoming quarter.Even a very good earnings result does not guarantee bullish sentiment for the stock because of the current price. Nvidia would need to present a strong argument to sustain the bullish momentum. As mentioned above, there is already a massive variation in the forward earnings estimate for the company. The bear case could easily take over if the company does not meet the earnings expectations or does not beat the expectations by a big enough margin.Nvidia stock is pricier than other stocksThe huge variation in forward earnings is already a big red flag for the stock. But even the most bullish EPS estimate for Nvidia will continue to give a pricey valuation multiple for the company. The highest EPS estimate for Nvidia for the fiscal year ending Jan 2027 is $7.2 which gives the forward P/E multiple of close to 20. On the other hand, the lowest EPS estimate for Alphabet for the fiscal year ending Dec 2026 is $9.05 giving the stock a forward P/E multiple of less than 19. Hence, even the most bullish case for Nvidia makes the stock pricier than Alphabet's lowest EPS estimate for 2 fiscal years ahead. A lot can change in the next 2 years, and I believe Nvidia stock does not offer a sufficient margin of safety.Comparison of Nvidia and Alphabet's EPS and forward PE.There are other options within the AI industry, and Nvidia is expensive at the current price. Investors looking for a more certain forward earnings trend could look at Alphabet, TSMC, and other alternatives.Investor TakeawayNvidia's forward earnings projections have the highest variation among the big tech stocks. The EPS projection for fiscal year ending Jan 2027 varies from $1.8 to $7.2. Hence, the high case is 4X the low estimate. For most of the other tech companies, the high case is 20% to 50% higher than the low case. Higher variation shows the uncertainty in future earnings as the company faces intense competition from AMD, Intel, and other big tech companies.It is highly likely that Nvidia's market share will contract over the coming quarters, which will also squeeze the margins. The forward P/E multiple for 2 fiscal years ahead for Nvidia is 75% higher than Alphabet. The stock is quite expensive, and even an earnings beat might not be enough to deliver a further bullish run.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":548,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":353935568728112,"gmtCreate":1727418140095,"gmtModify":1727418991512,"author":{"id":"3574807189087941","authorId":"3574807189087941","name":"Icywinddale","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/3bd2fbf9d90e26b2f600b2c5d7c54244","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574807189087941","authorIdStr":"3574807189087941"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Sucker, did you see MU earning？can't believe such low level article was here.","listText":"Sucker, did you see MU earning？can't believe such low level article was here.","text":"Sucker, did you see MU earning？can't believe such low level article was here.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/353935568728112","repostId":"2470763038","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2470763038","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1727417054,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2470763038?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2024-09-27 14:04","market":"sg","language":"en","title":"Nvidia Is Showing Major Red Flags On The Demand Side","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2470763038","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"The performance of Nvidia Corporation’s stock after the recent earnings result is a strong warning to the bullish investors.The stock had a 20% dip despite beating estimates on almost all major metric","content":"<html><head></head><body><ul style=\"\"><li><p>The performance of Nvidia Corporation’s stock after the recent earnings result is a strong warning to the bullish investors.</p></li><li><p>The stock had a 20% dip despite beating estimates on almost all major metrics.</p></li><li><p>Close to 50% of the data center revenue comes from large cloud providers, who are getting warning signals from Wall Street regarding their capex trajectory.</p></li><li><p>We have not seen a big revenue or margin improvement from cloud providers in the last few earnings, which can force them to rein in their AI spending.</p></li><li><p>The stock is trading at over 26 times forward P/E for the fiscal year ending Jan 2027, and any margin pressure would reduce the upside potential in the stock.</p></li></ul><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/6144f6f01bec9d39bca22c82ac595a7e\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"500\"/></p><p>BING-JHEN HONG</p><p></p><p><strong>Nvidia Corporation&#39;s</strong> (NASDAQ:NVDA) recent earnings result is a big warning for bullish investors and analysts. The company was able to beat estimates on revenue and EPS while also giving strong forward guidance. The revenue surprise was $1.29 billion, which was enormous and showed a strong trajectory in this metric. However, Wall Street ended up correcting the stock by close to 20%. Since the dip, Nvidia has recouped most of the losses and is again close to the $125 level. But we can see several red signals that are flashing and need to be closely looked to gauge the long-term returns potential of the stock. In our previous article, it was mentioned that we would see margin pressure in Nvidia.</p><p>In the Q1 earnings, Nvidia&#39;s CFO mentioned that close to 50% of the data center revenue came from large cloud providers like Amazon&#39;s (AMZN) AWS, Google Cloud (GOOGL) (GOOG), and Microsoft Azure (MSFT). Most of the recent growth in Nvidia&#39;s revenue has been driven by these cloud companies trying to ramp up their AI services. But this has come at a cost of massive capex for even the larger companies. Most of these cloud companies have themselves seen a correction after recent earnings as Wall Street is worried over their capex trajectory. On the other hand, these large cloud providers are not showing a big improvement in their revenue and margin trajectory. If these large players scale back their investment over the coming quarters, we could see a big headwind for Nvidia&#39;s revenue and margin.</p><p>The forward EPS growth projection of Nvidia are not strong. For the fiscal year ending Jan 2027, the consensus EPS estimate is of $4.71 which gives the stock a forward P/E of 26.2. Any margin decline could lead to big EPS downward revisions. Competition from Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) is heating up, and the company is continuously increasing its AI revenue estimate almost every quarter. While Nvidia has a big lead, it is highly likely that it will see strong margin headwinds as other players ramp up their AI chips. Looking at this macro picture, Nvidia stock does not seem to be cheap, and it has a limited upside potential.</p><h3 id=\"id_1545308843\">Looking beyond Nvidia</h3><p>To gauge the growth potential of Nvidia, we need to look at the recent performance of some of its biggest clients. Most of the top management of large cloud providers have been very optimistic about their AI services, but Wall Street is having second doubts about their future projection. We have already seen this in the recent earnings season, where big cloud players have not performed well.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/1a13411b5084427c3632c39a5fbe23c5\" tg-width=\"603\" tg-height=\"124\"/></p><p>Nvidia Filings</p><p></p><p><em>Figure: Nvidia&#39;s CFO remarks in Q1 earnings. Source:</em> <em>Nvidia filings.</em></p><p>In the Q1 earnings, Nvidia&#39;s CFO Colette Kress mentioned that large cloud providers contributed in the mid-40s as a percentage of Nvidia&#39;s Data Center revenue base. If these large cloud providers see a strong backlash from Wall Street due to their AI spending, it will inevitably hurt Nvidia.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/2816e736c09bcd38c332ab7890f3f69e\" tg-width=\"984\" tg-height=\"398\"/></p><p>YCharts</p><p></p><p><em>Figure: Stock performance of top cloud services. Source:</em> <em>YCharts</em></p><p>The big three cloud providers have not fared well in this earnings season. All of them are significantly lagging the broader market. They have company-specific issues, but one of the common bearish arguments for them is the massive capex spending on AI, which has not delivered an improvement in margin and revenue trajectory.</p><p>As an example, we can look at the revenue trend of Amazon&#39;s AWS in the last few quarters.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/fa128a33a23c119a6ac23fca333ad946\" tg-width=\"861\" tg-height=\"174\"/></p><p>Amazon Filings</p><p></p><p><em>Figure: AWS revenue trend in the last few quarters. Source:</em> <em>Amazon filings.</em></p><p>AWS has been spending heavily on AI in the hopes of launching new AI services and attract more clients. However, this has not significantly increased the revenue trajectory for the company. A similar trend can be seen in Google Cloud and Microsoft&#39;s Cloud.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/ba02c9463c9150cafa7fa0e8623f6a60\" tg-width=\"984\" tg-height=\"400\"/></p><p>YCharts</p><p></p><p><em>Figure: Quarterly capex of large cloud providers. Source:</em> <em>YCharts</em></p><p>There has been a strong inflection in capex of the big three cloud providers in the last few quarters, and each of them is now estimating close to $50 billion in capex for this fiscal years. A bulk of the incremental spending has gone to building the AI services and buying the expensive chips from Nvidia. However, if we do not see a material improvement in the margins and revenue of these cloud players, Wall Street could turn very bearish towards these investments.</p><p>Nvidia&#39;s management is betting that the AI demand will continue to increase over the coming quarters. However, this is not guaranteed when we look at the macro picture and the performance of some of its major clients.</p><h3 id=\"id_2287063006\">Margin pressure from competition</h3><p>Nvidia will inevitably face margin pressure as more competitive chips are launched in the market. AMD is projecting AI chip revenue of $4.5 billion for 2024. This estimate has continued to increase over the last few quarters. At the end of 2023, AMD was estimating AI chip revenue of only $2 billion. It is possible that the final results for 2024 will easily cross $5 billion level. This is still a small fraction of Nvidia&#39;s revenue base, but we can see a clear trend. If AMD&#39;s current growth trajectory continues in 2025, we could see a major headwind for Nvidia&#39;s margin. Despite the higher market share of Nvidia, Wall Street could become increasingly cautious about the ability of the company to retain its juicy margins.</p><p>There has been a sequential decline in US revenue in the recent quarter. The US revenue of Nvidia was $13.5 billion in Q1 2025 while it was $13 billion in Q2 2025.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/8028fe9a0699d26b09f7c11bd55fcb30\" tg-width=\"862\" tg-height=\"178\"/></p><p>Nvidia Filings</p><p></p><p><em>Figure: Nvidia&#39;s revenue base in different regions. Source:</em> <em>Nvidia Filings.</em></p><p>One possible explanation for this sequential decline is that the big tech clients have started reassessing their AI spend. It is certainly possible that this QoQ decline continues for the next few quarters, which will be a revenue headwind for the company.</p><h3 id=\"id_602071535\">EPS growth trend does not look very promising</h3><p>Beyond 2025, Nvidia&#39;s EPS growth trajectory starts looking more modest. The consensus EPS estimate for fiscal year ending Jan 2027 is $4.71 which is equal to 17.9% YoY growth.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/714b0fc57fa927f9765d267618c38599\" tg-width=\"898\" tg-height=\"186\"/></p><p>Seeking Alpha</p><p></p><p><em>Figure: EPS estimate for next few years. Source:</em> <em>Seeking Alpha.</em></p><p>It should also be noted that there is a huge difference between the low and high EPS estimate for fiscal year ending Jan 2027. The low EPS estimate is $1.81 while the high estimate is $7.26 which is 4 times the low estimate. Very few big tech companies have this level of difference in forward EPS estimate. This gives an additional risk to the stock. Nvidia is trading at 26 times the consensus EPS estimate for fiscal year ending Jan 2027. This is a high number for a company which is facing several headwinds.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/0a890ba7bca293417214bdff2d3fe16e\" tg-width=\"979\" tg-height=\"391\"/></p><p>YCharts</p><p></p><p><em>Figure: Nvidia and AMD&#39;s EPS estimate for 2 fiscal years ahead. Source:</em> <em>YCharts</em></p><p>AMD&#39;s EPS estimate for 2 fiscal years ahead is $7.4 which gives the stock a forward P/E valuation (FY 2026) of 21.5. This is 20% lower than the 26.2 forward P/E valuation of Nvidia for fiscal year ending Jan 2027. I also believe that Nvidia has a higher risk of EPS down revisions as the margin pressure continues to build on the company for the next few quarters.</p><p>Nvidia is at a large revenue base, with quarterly revenue of close to $30 billion. It is facing competitive, regulatory and client-specific headwinds. On the other hand, the upside is limited, which changes the risk/reward dynamics of the stock.</p><h2 id=\"id_3652055779\">Investor Takeaway</h2><p>Nvidia delivered a great earnings result, beating both the revenue and earnings estimate. However, the stock corrected by close to 20% post-earnings, which is a strong red flag for the company. Despite making up most of the losses, the stock is still below the pre-earnings high of close to $130. Nvidia gets a bulk of its Data Center revenue from big cloud players like Amazon, Google, and Microsoft. All of them have seen their stocks underperform significantly after the recent earnings as Wall Street gets more cautious over the massive capex trajectory of these companies. There is a strong possibility that the management of these tech companies will need to downscale their AI spending, which should hurt Nvidia&#39;s revenue and margins estimate.</p><p>Nvidia is already facing a margin pressure, and it is difficult to see how the company can retain its market share and margins in the upcoming quarters. AMD will likely deliver over $5 billion in AI chip sales for 2024 and there is a strong growth momentum for its chips. Nvidia stock is also not cheap as it is trading at over 26 times the EPS estimate for the fiscal year ending January 2027 compared to only 21.5 for AMD. The upside is limited while the company faces massive headwinds, which makes the stock a Sell at the current price.</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Nvidia Is Showing Major Red Flags On The Demand Side</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNvidia Is Showing Major Red Flags On The Demand Side\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-09-27 14:04 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4723524-nvidia-showing-major-red-flags-demand-side><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>The performance of Nvidia Corporation’s stock after the recent earnings result is a strong warning to the bullish investors.The stock had a 20% dip despite beating estimates on almost all major ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4723524-nvidia-showing-major-red-flags-demand-side\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"IE00BFSS8Q28.SGD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Inc SGD-H","BK4549":"软银资本持仓","IE0034235188.USD":"PINEBRIDGE GLOBAL FOCUS EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","IE00B19Z8W00.USD":"FTGF CLEARBRIDGE US LARGE CAP GROWTH \"A\" INC","HK0000320223.HKD":"TAIKANG KAITAI CHINA NEW OPPORTUNITIES FUND \"A\" (HKD) ACC","IE00B4JS1V06.HKD":"JANUS HENDERSON BALANCED \"A2\" (HKD) ACC","IE0004086264.USD":"BNY MELLON GLOBAL OPPORTUNITIES \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE00BFSS7M15.SGD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Acc SGD-H","BK4554":"元宇宙及AR概念","IE00BMPRXQ63.HKD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN NEXT GENERATION CONNECTIVITY FUND \"A\" (HKDHDG) ACC","BK4532":"文艺复兴科技持仓","HK0000320264.USD":"TAIKANG KAITAI CHINA NEW OPPORTUNITIES FUND \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE0034235295.USD":"PINEBRIDGE GLOBAL DYNAMIC ASSET ALLOCATION 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CONNECTIVITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4543":"AI","IE00B775H168.HKD":"JANUS HENDERSON BALANCED \"A5M\" (HKD) INC","IE00BDRTCR15.USD":"PINEBRIDGE GLOBAL DYNAMIC ASSET ALLOCATION \"ADC\" (USD) INC A","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","IE00B5949003.HKD":"JANUS HENDERSON GLOBAL TECHNOLOGY AND INNOVATION \"A\" (HKD) ACC","IE0004445015.USD":"JANUS HENDERSON BALANCED \"A2\" (USD) ACC","BK4141":"半导体产品","IE0005OL40V9.USD":"JANUS HENDERSON BALANCED \"A6M\" (USD) INC","IE00BK4W5L77.USD":"HSBC GLOBAL FUNDS ICAV US EQUITY INDEX \"HC\" (USD) ACC","BK4551":"寇图资本持仓","IE00BWXC8680.SGD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A5\" (SGD) ACC","LU0061474705.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) GLOBAL DYNAMIC REAL RETURN \"AU\" (USD) ACC","IE00B19Z8X17.USD":"FTGF CLEARBRIDGE US LARGE CAP GROWTH  \"AG\" (USD) ACC","IE00B3M56506.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN EMERGING MARKETS EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE00BD6J9T35.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN NEXT GENERATION MOBILITY \"A\" (USD) ACC"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4723524-nvidia-showing-major-red-flags-demand-side","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"2470763038","content_text":"The performance of Nvidia Corporation’s stock after the recent earnings result is a strong warning to the bullish investors.The stock had a 20% dip despite beating estimates on almost all major metrics.Close to 50% of the data center revenue comes from large cloud providers, who are getting warning signals from Wall Street regarding their capex trajectory.We have not seen a big revenue or margin improvement from cloud providers in the last few earnings, which can force them to rein in their AI spending.The stock is trading at over 26 times forward P/E for the fiscal year ending Jan 2027, and any margin pressure would reduce the upside potential in the stock.BING-JHEN HONGNvidia Corporation's (NASDAQ:NVDA) recent earnings result is a big warning for bullish investors and analysts. The company was able to beat estimates on revenue and EPS while also giving strong forward guidance. The revenue surprise was $1.29 billion, which was enormous and showed a strong trajectory in this metric. However, Wall Street ended up correcting the stock by close to 20%. Since the dip, Nvidia has recouped most of the losses and is again close to the $125 level. But we can see several red signals that are flashing and need to be closely looked to gauge the long-term returns potential of the stock. In our previous article, it was mentioned that we would see margin pressure in Nvidia.In the Q1 earnings, Nvidia's CFO mentioned that close to 50% of the data center revenue came from large cloud providers like Amazon's (AMZN) AWS, Google Cloud (GOOGL) (GOOG), and Microsoft Azure (MSFT). Most of the recent growth in Nvidia's revenue has been driven by these cloud companies trying to ramp up their AI services. But this has come at a cost of massive capex for even the larger companies. Most of these cloud companies have themselves seen a correction after recent earnings as Wall Street is worried over their capex trajectory. On the other hand, these large cloud providers are not showing a big improvement in their revenue and margin trajectory. If these large players scale back their investment over the coming quarters, we could see a big headwind for Nvidia's revenue and margin.The forward EPS growth projection of Nvidia are not strong. For the fiscal year ending Jan 2027, the consensus EPS estimate is of $4.71 which gives the stock a forward P/E of 26.2. Any margin decline could lead to big EPS downward revisions. Competition from Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) is heating up, and the company is continuously increasing its AI revenue estimate almost every quarter. While Nvidia has a big lead, it is highly likely that it will see strong margin headwinds as other players ramp up their AI chips. Looking at this macro picture, Nvidia stock does not seem to be cheap, and it has a limited upside potential.Looking beyond NvidiaTo gauge the growth potential of Nvidia, we need to look at the recent performance of some of its biggest clients. Most of the top management of large cloud providers have been very optimistic about their AI services, but Wall Street is having second doubts about their future projection. We have already seen this in the recent earnings season, where big cloud players have not performed well.Nvidia FilingsFigure: Nvidia's CFO remarks in Q1 earnings. Source: Nvidia filings.In the Q1 earnings, Nvidia's CFO Colette Kress mentioned that large cloud providers contributed in the mid-40s as a percentage of Nvidia's Data Center revenue base. If these large cloud providers see a strong backlash from Wall Street due to their AI spending, it will inevitably hurt Nvidia.YChartsFigure: Stock performance of top cloud services. Source: YChartsThe big three cloud providers have not fared well in this earnings season. All of them are significantly lagging the broader market. They have company-specific issues, but one of the common bearish arguments for them is the massive capex spending on AI, which has not delivered an improvement in margin and revenue trajectory.As an example, we can look at the revenue trend of Amazon's AWS in the last few quarters.Amazon FilingsFigure: AWS revenue trend in the last few quarters. Source: Amazon filings.AWS has been spending heavily on AI in the hopes of launching new AI services and attract more clients. However, this has not significantly increased the revenue trajectory for the company. A similar trend can be seen in Google Cloud and Microsoft's Cloud.YChartsFigure: Quarterly capex of large cloud providers. Source: YChartsThere has been a strong inflection in capex of the big three cloud providers in the last few quarters, and each of them is now estimating close to $50 billion in capex for this fiscal years. A bulk of the incremental spending has gone to building the AI services and buying the expensive chips from Nvidia. However, if we do not see a material improvement in the margins and revenue of these cloud players, Wall Street could turn very bearish towards these investments.Nvidia's management is betting that the AI demand will continue to increase over the coming quarters. However, this is not guaranteed when we look at the macro picture and the performance of some of its major clients.Margin pressure from competitionNvidia will inevitably face margin pressure as more competitive chips are launched in the market. AMD is projecting AI chip revenue of $4.5 billion for 2024. This estimate has continued to increase over the last few quarters. At the end of 2023, AMD was estimating AI chip revenue of only $2 billion. It is possible that the final results for 2024 will easily cross $5 billion level. This is still a small fraction of Nvidia's revenue base, but we can see a clear trend. If AMD's current growth trajectory continues in 2025, we could see a major headwind for Nvidia's margin. Despite the higher market share of Nvidia, Wall Street could become increasingly cautious about the ability of the company to retain its juicy margins.There has been a sequential decline in US revenue in the recent quarter. The US revenue of Nvidia was $13.5 billion in Q1 2025 while it was $13 billion in Q2 2025.Nvidia FilingsFigure: Nvidia's revenue base in different regions. Source: Nvidia Filings.One possible explanation for this sequential decline is that the big tech clients have started reassessing their AI spend. It is certainly possible that this QoQ decline continues for the next few quarters, which will be a revenue headwind for the company.EPS growth trend does not look very promisingBeyond 2025, Nvidia's EPS growth trajectory starts looking more modest. The consensus EPS estimate for fiscal year ending Jan 2027 is $4.71 which is equal to 17.9% YoY growth.Seeking AlphaFigure: EPS estimate for next few years. Source: Seeking Alpha.It should also be noted that there is a huge difference between the low and high EPS estimate for fiscal year ending Jan 2027. The low EPS estimate is $1.81 while the high estimate is $7.26 which is 4 times the low estimate. Very few big tech companies have this level of difference in forward EPS estimate. This gives an additional risk to the stock. Nvidia is trading at 26 times the consensus EPS estimate for fiscal year ending Jan 2027. This is a high number for a company which is facing several headwinds.YChartsFigure: Nvidia and AMD's EPS estimate for 2 fiscal years ahead. Source: YChartsAMD's EPS estimate for 2 fiscal years ahead is $7.4 which gives the stock a forward P/E valuation (FY 2026) of 21.5. This is 20% lower than the 26.2 forward P/E valuation of Nvidia for fiscal year ending Jan 2027. I also believe that Nvidia has a higher risk of EPS down revisions as the margin pressure continues to build on the company for the next few quarters.Nvidia is at a large revenue base, with quarterly revenue of close to $30 billion. It is facing competitive, regulatory and client-specific headwinds. On the other hand, the upside is limited, which changes the risk/reward dynamics of the stock.Investor TakeawayNvidia delivered a great earnings result, beating both the revenue and earnings estimate. However, the stock corrected by close to 20% post-earnings, which is a strong red flag for the company. Despite making up most of the losses, the stock is still below the pre-earnings high of close to $130. Nvidia gets a bulk of its Data Center revenue from big cloud players like Amazon, Google, and Microsoft. All of them have seen their stocks underperform significantly after the recent earnings as Wall Street gets more cautious over the massive capex trajectory of these companies. There is a strong possibility that the management of these tech companies will need to downscale their AI spending, which should hurt Nvidia's revenue and margins estimate.Nvidia is already facing a margin pressure, and it is difficult to see how the company can retain its market share and margins in the upcoming quarters. AMD will likely deliver over $5 billion in AI chip sales for 2024 and there is a strong growth momentum for its chips. Nvidia stock is also not cheap as it is trading at over 26 times the EPS estimate for the fiscal year ending January 2027 compared to only 21.5 for AMD. The upside is limited while the company faces massive headwinds, which makes the stock a Sell at the current price.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":634,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":350073235079400,"gmtCreate":1726495007688,"gmtModify":1726495011489,"author":{"id":"3574807189087941","authorId":"3574807189087941","name":"Icywinddale","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/3bd2fbf9d90e26b2f600b2c5d7c54244","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574807189087941","authorIdStr":"3574807189087941"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"The writer knows nothing","listText":"The writer knows nothing","text":"The writer knows nothing","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/350073235079400","repostId":"2467155168","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2467155168","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Dow Jones publishes the world’s most trusted business news and financial information in a variety of media.","home_visible":0,"media_name":"Dow Jones","id":"106","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99"},"pubTimestamp":1726486731,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2467155168?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2024-09-16 19:38","market":"other","language":"en","title":"Nvidia's Stock Rally Pauses. A New Generation of Data Centers Is Arriving","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2467155168","media":"Dow Jones","summary":"Nvidia was slipping early on Monday as the chip maker looks set to give back some gains from the previous week's rally.Nvidia shares were down 1.44% at $117.39 in premarket trading on Monday. The stoc","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Nvidia was slipping early on Monday as the chip maker looks set to give back some gains from the previous week&#39;s rally.</p><p>Nvidia shares were down 1.44% at $117.39 in premarket trading on Monday. The stock closed broadly flat on Friday but has risen 12% over the past five trading sessions.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/8ecfa4e89d443499439628aa77d8bc83\" tg-width=\"739\" tg-height=\"621\"/></p><p>Nvidia has gained from renewed confidence in demand for its chips, partly fueled by cloud-computing and software company Oracle which has talked of companies spending $100 billion each on developing their artificial-intelligence models.</p><p>Oracle has outlined plans to build an AI supercomputer that will be powered by 131,072 of Nvidia&#39;s next-generation Blackwell chips</p><p>&#34;Nvidia is at the epicenter of all things related and is the pioneer for artificial intelligence infrastructure,&#34; wrote Ken Mahoney, CEO of Mahoney Asset Management, in an emailed comment. &#34;They have been and will continue to be the beneficiary of this movement.&#34;</p><p>However, there are signs that investors in big data centers are diversifying what type of chips they intend to use. Chip start-up Groq said recently it has joined with oil producer Saudi Arabian Oil Co., commonly known as Aramco, to build a giant data center in Saudi Arabia to offer AI computing power to local companies.</p><p>Groq&#39;s chips are focused on inference, the process of generating answers or results from AI models. It has claimed its language-processing units are better suited for powering AI language applications than GPUs of the type Nvidia makes.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Nvidia's Stock Rally Pauses. A New Generation of Data Centers Is Arriving</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNvidia's Stock Rally Pauses. A New Generation of Data Centers Is Arriving\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Dow Jones </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2024-09-16 19:38</p>\n</div>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>Nvidia was slipping early on Monday as the chip maker looks set to give back some gains from the previous week&#39;s rally.</p><p>Nvidia shares were down 1.44% at $117.39 in premarket trading on Monday. The stock closed broadly flat on Friday but has risen 12% over the past five trading sessions.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/8ecfa4e89d443499439628aa77d8bc83\" tg-width=\"739\" tg-height=\"621\"/></p><p>Nvidia has gained from renewed confidence in demand for its chips, partly fueled by cloud-computing and software company Oracle which has talked of companies spending $100 billion each on developing their artificial-intelligence models.</p><p>Oracle has outlined plans to build an AI supercomputer that will be powered by 131,072 of Nvidia&#39;s next-generation Blackwell chips</p><p>&#34;Nvidia is at the epicenter of all things related and is the pioneer for artificial intelligence infrastructure,&#34; wrote Ken Mahoney, CEO of Mahoney Asset Management, in an emailed comment. &#34;They have been and will continue to be the beneficiary of this movement.&#34;</p><p>However, there are signs that investors in big data centers are diversifying what type of chips they intend to use. Chip start-up Groq said recently it has joined with oil producer Saudi Arabian Oil Co., commonly known as Aramco, to build a giant data center in Saudi Arabia to offer AI computing power to local companies.</p><p>Groq&#39;s chips are focused on inference, the process of generating answers or results from AI models. It has claimed its language-processing units are better suited for powering AI language applications than GPUs of the type Nvidia makes.</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BK4554":"元宇宙及AR概念","LU0985489474.SGD":"First Eagle Amundi International AHS-C SGD-H","LU0823434740.USD":"BNP PARIBAS US GROWTH \"C\" (USD) INC","BK4532":"文艺复兴科技持仓","LU0878866978.SGD":"First Eagle Amundi International AHS-QD SGD-H","LU0738911758.USD":"Blackrock Global Equity Income A6 USD","IE0034235303.USD":"PINEBRIDGE US RESEARCH ENHANCED CORE EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE00B7KXQ091.USD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Inc USD","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","LU0433182093.SGD":"First Eagle Amundi International AS-C SGD","IE00BLSP4452.SGD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - Tactical Dividend Income A Mdis SGD-H Plus","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","IE0004086264.USD":"BNY MELLON GLOBAL OPPORTUNITIES \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE00B894F039.SGD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - US Aggressive Growth A Acc SGD-H","LU0417517546.SGD":"Allianz US Equity Cl AT Acc SGD","LU0068578508.USD":"First Eagle Amundi International Cl AU-C USD","IE00B19Z9505.USD":"美盛-美国大盘成长股A Acc","LU0053666078.USD":"摩根大通基金-美国股票A（离岸）美元","LU1988902786.USD":"FULLERTON LUX FUNDS GLOBAL ABSOLUTE ALPHA \"I\" (USD) ACC","NVDA":"英伟达","LU0082616367.USD":"摩根大通美国科技A（dist）","BK4538":"云计算","LU0823421333.USD":"BNP PARIBAS DISRUPTIVE TECHNOLOGY \"C\" (USD) ACC","LU0823421416.USD":"BNP PARIBAS DISRUPTIVE TECHNOLOGY \"C\" (USD) INC","LU0061474960.USD":"天利环球焦点基金AU Acc","LU0234572021.USD":"高盛美国核心股票组合Acc","LU0320765646.SGD":"FTIF - Franklin Income A MDIS SGD-H1","BK4097":"系统软件","LU0823434583.USD":"BNP PARIBAS US GROWTH \"C\" (USD) ACC","LU1934455194.USD":"AB SICAV I LOW VOLATILITY TOTAL RETURN EQUITY PORT \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0661504455.SGD":"Blackrock Global Equity Income A5 SGD-H","IE00BKPKM429.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN GLOBAL SUSTAINABLE EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE00BZ1G4Q59.USD":"LEGG MASON CLEARBRIDGE US EQUITY SUSTAINABILITY LEADER \"A\"(USD) INC (A)","BK4512":"苹果概念","LU0057025933.USD":"SUSTAINABLE GLOBAL THEMATIC PORTFOLIO \"AX\" (USD) ACC","BK4549":"软银资本持仓","LU0061474705.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) GLOBAL DYNAMIC REAL RETURN \"AU\" (USD) ACC","LU0979878070.USD":"FULLERTON LUX FUNDS - ASIA ABSOLUTE ALPHA \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","LU1852331112.SGD":"Blackrock World Technology Fund A2 SGD-H","LU0289960550.SGD":"AB FCP I - GLOBAL EQUITY BLEND PORTFOLIO 'A' (SGD) ACC","IE00B1BXHZ80.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - US Appreciation A Acc USD","IE00BFSS8Q28.SGD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Inc SGD-H"},"source_url":"https://dowjonesnews.com/newdjn/logon.aspx?AL=N","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2467155168","content_text":"Nvidia was slipping early on Monday as the chip maker looks set to give back some gains from the previous week's rally.Nvidia shares were down 1.44% at $117.39 in premarket trading on Monday. The stock closed broadly flat on Friday but has risen 12% over the past five trading sessions.Nvidia has gained from renewed confidence in demand for its chips, partly fueled by cloud-computing and software company Oracle which has talked of companies spending $100 billion each on developing their artificial-intelligence models.Oracle has outlined plans to build an AI supercomputer that will be powered by 131,072 of Nvidia's next-generation Blackwell chips\"Nvidia is at the epicenter of all things related and is the pioneer for artificial intelligence infrastructure,\" wrote Ken Mahoney, CEO of Mahoney Asset Management, in an emailed comment. \"They have been and will continue to be the beneficiary of this movement.\"However, there are signs that investors in big data centers are diversifying what type of chips they intend to use. Chip start-up Groq said recently it has joined with oil producer Saudi Arabian Oil Co., commonly known as Aramco, to build a giant data center in Saudi Arabia to offer AI computing power to local companies.Groq's chips are focused on inference, the process of generating answers or results from AI models. It has claimed its language-processing units are better suited for powering AI language applications than GPUs of the type Nvidia makes.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":353,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":346113790402824,"gmtCreate":1725527210283,"gmtModify":1725527214532,"author":{"id":"3574807189087941","authorId":"3574807189087941","name":"Icywinddale","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/3bd2fbf9d90e26b2f600b2c5d7c54244","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574807189087941","authorIdStr":"3574807189087941"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"May NVDA investors sue Bloomberg on the false news? Bloomberg sucks! Whom we can trust?","listText":"May NVDA investors sue Bloomberg on the false news? Bloomberg sucks! Whom we can trust?","text":"May NVDA investors sue Bloomberg on the false news? Bloomberg sucks! Whom we can trust?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/346113790402824","repostId":"1186916268","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1186916268","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1725523255,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1186916268?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2024-09-05 16:00","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Nvidia, Tesla Shares Rise Nearly 1% in Premarket Trading","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1186916268","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Nvidia rose 1.1% in premarket trading on Thursday; Tesla rose 1.2%. $NVIDIA Corp$  did not receive a U.S. Justice Department subpoena, a spokesperson said in a statement on Wednesday.\"We have inquired with the U.S. Department of Justice and have not been subpoenaed. Nonetheless, we are happy to answer any questions regulators may have about our business.\"Bloomberg News reported on Tuesday the Justice Department had sent a subpoena related to a potential antitrust investigation, which would signa","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Nvidia rose 1.1% in premarket trading on Thursday; Tesla rose 1.2%.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/daa7d365f5b381eaf0e7d5417b4513d5\" tg-width=\"533\" tg-height=\"273\"/></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">NVIDIA Corp</a>  did not receive a U.S. Justice Department subpoena, a spokesperson said in a statement on Wednesday.</p><p>&#34;We have inquired with the U.S. Department of Justice and have not been subpoenaed. Nonetheless, we are happy to answer any questions regulators may have about our business.&#34;</p><p>Bloomberg News reported on Tuesday the Justice Department had sent a subpoena related to a potential antitrust investigation, which would signal an escalation in the probe. Bloomberg News said subpoenas had been sent to other companies in addition to Nvidia.</p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla Motors</a>  plans to launch FSD (Full Self-Driving) in China early next year, a slight delay from previous plans.</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Tesla plans to launch FSD in China and Europe in the first quarter of 2025, pending regulatory approval, Tesla&#39;s AI team&#39;s account, @Tesla_AI, said on social media platform X today.</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">The EV maker&#39;s CEO, Elon Musk, said on an earnings call in July that Tesla would likely receive regulatory approval to launch FSD in other markets, including Europe and China, by the end of this year.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Nvidia, Tesla Shares Rise Nearly 1% in Premarket Trading</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNvidia, Tesla Shares Rise Nearly 1% in Premarket Trading\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2024-09-05 16:00</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>Nvidia rose 1.1% in premarket trading on Thursday; Tesla rose 1.2%.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/daa7d365f5b381eaf0e7d5417b4513d5\" tg-width=\"533\" tg-height=\"273\"/></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">NVIDIA Corp</a>  did not receive a U.S. Justice Department subpoena, a spokesperson said in a statement on Wednesday.</p><p>&#34;We have inquired with the U.S. Department of Justice and have not been subpoenaed. Nonetheless, we are happy to answer any questions regulators may have about our business.&#34;</p><p>Bloomberg News reported on Tuesday the Justice Department had sent a subpoena related to a potential antitrust investigation, which would signal an escalation in the probe. Bloomberg News said subpoenas had been sent to other companies in addition to Nvidia.</p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla Motors</a>  plans to launch FSD (Full Self-Driving) in China early next year, a slight delay from previous plans.</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Tesla plans to launch FSD in China and Europe in the first quarter of 2025, pending regulatory approval, Tesla&#39;s AI team&#39;s account, @Tesla_AI, said on social media platform X today.</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">The EV maker&#39;s CEO, Elon Musk, said on an earnings call in July that Tesla would likely receive regulatory approval to launch FSD in other markets, including Europe and China, by the end of this year.</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLL":"Direxion Daily TSLA Bull 2X Shares","NVDL":"GraniteShares 2x Long NVDA Daily ETF","NVDA":"英伟达","TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1186916268","content_text":"Nvidia rose 1.1% in premarket trading on Thursday; Tesla rose 1.2%. NVIDIA Corp  did not receive a U.S. Justice Department subpoena, a spokesperson said in a statement on Wednesday.\"We have inquired with the U.S. Department of Justice and have not been subpoenaed. Nonetheless, we are happy to answer any questions regulators may have about our business.\"Bloomberg News reported on Tuesday the Justice Department had sent a subpoena related to a potential antitrust investigation, which would signal an escalation in the probe. Bloomberg News said subpoenas had been sent to other companies in addition to Nvidia. Tesla Motors  plans to launch FSD (Full Self-Driving) in China early next year, a slight delay from previous plans.Tesla plans to launch FSD in China and Europe in the first quarter of 2025, pending regulatory approval, Tesla's AI team's account, @Tesla_AI, said on social media platform X today.The EV maker's CEO, Elon Musk, said on an earnings call in July that Tesla would likely receive regulatory approval to launch FSD in other markets, including Europe and China, by the end of this year.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":333,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":345806160150816,"gmtCreate":1725430725198,"gmtModify":1725430728876,"author":{"id":"3574807189087941","authorId":"3574807189087941","name":"Icywinddale","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/3bd2fbf9d90e26b2f600b2c5d7c54244","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574807189087941","authorIdStr":"3574807189087941"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"may drop? &nbsp;Why we need waste time to read this article? [Weak]&nbsp; [Weak]&nbsp;&nbsp;","listText":"may drop? &nbsp;Why we need waste time to read this article? [Weak]&nbsp; [Weak]&nbsp;&nbsp;","text":"may drop? Why we need waste time to read this article? [Weak] [Weak]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/345806160150816","repostId":"2464351176","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2464351176","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1725428700,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2464351176?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2024-09-04 13:45","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Broadcom's Stock May Drop Sharply Following Results","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2464351176","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Broadcom's Q3 earnings forecast shows a 15% year-over-year EPS increase and 46% year-over-year revenue growth, driven mainly by its infrastructure software segment.The software segment, bolstered by V","content":"<html><head></head><body><ul style=\"\"><li><p>Broadcom&#39;s Q3 earnings forecast shows a 15% year-over-year EPS increase and 46% year-over-year revenue growth, driven mainly by its infrastructure software segment.</p></li><li><p>The software segment, bolstered by VMware, is expected to double sales to $5.5 billion, overshadowing modest growth in semiconductor and AI segments.</p></li><li><p>Despite impressive growth, Broadcom&#39;s valuation is high at 26 times earnings, raising concerns about the sustainability of its premium valuation.</p></li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/8c91587eababb5a90a14f1f8183f7b1a\" alt=\"JHVEPhoto\" title=\"JHVEPhoto\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"500\"/><span>JHVEPhoto</span></p><p>Broadcom (NASDAQ:AVGO) will report its fiscal third quarter earnings after the market closes on Sept. 5. Analysts are forecasting a 15% y/y increase in earnings per share to $1.22, alongside a significant 46% y/y growth in revenue, bringing the total to approximately $13 billion. However, it’s important to note that the growth in Broadcom’s Semiconductor Solutions segment is expected to be relatively modest, with an anticipated increase of just 7% y/y, reaching $7.4 billion. The company’s AI segment is projected to see only a slight uptick, growing by 5% q/q to $3.3 billion.</p><h2 id=\"id_648776196\">AI or Not AI</h2><p>In contrast, Broadcom’s infrastructure software segment drives much of the company’s overall growth. This unit is expected to see its sales more than double, reaching $5.5 billion, with VMware contributing $3.3 billion. This shift highlights Broadcom’s growth, which is increasingly coming from its software side, mainly through acquiring VMware, rather than from its traditional semiconductor business. This dynamic may surprise those who view Broadcom primarily as an AI-driven company, which makes up a relatively small amount of total revenue.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/52d0e70018b4ded1cf805bd0e748e128\" alt=\"Bloomberg\" title=\"Bloomberg\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"251\"/><span>Bloomberg</span></p><p>Despite the company’s impressive growth figures, Broadcom no longer provides quarterly guidance, having shifted to offering only annual forecasts. For the current year, the company is targeting $51 billion in revenue, a figure that was reiterated last quarter. Analysts expect it to slightly exceed that at $51.7 billion.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/6d5d225a519e5b40485093100af19f89\" alt=\"Bloomberg\" title=\"Bloomberg\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"251\"/><span>Bloomberg</span></p><h2 id=\"id_4278677996\">No Surprises</h2><p>Broadcom has a history of reporting in line with revenue estimates, with last quarter marking its most significant beat in recent times at 3.5%. Regarding adjusted earnings, the company also tends to beat expectations by a small margin, typically around 1%. Market expectations for Broadcom’s stock movement post earnings are modest, with a projected move of around 6.7%.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/9f1a78a94a703a65991bac4cf430ef68\" alt=\"Bloomberg\" title=\"Bloomberg\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"339\"/><span>Bloomberg</span></p><h2 id=\"id_3511479312\">Options Betting on Further Upside</h2><p>Looking at options positioning for the week of Sept. 6, implied volatility [IV] is relatively modest at 77%, though it should continue to rise heading into the earnings release as event risk builds. The options market is very bullish on Broadcom, as noted by the solid positive call gamma and delta values, particularly around the $160 strike price, with resistance at $170 and support near $150.</p><p>It&#39;s important to note that once the event risk passes, the implied volatility will drop, and both the calls and the puts will see their premiums fall dramatically. As of Sept. 3, a buyer of the $160 calls needs the stock to rise above $166 following the results, or the options will lose value by 6.5%. This is similar to what happened with Nvidia, and if the stock cannot clear $160, option holders could sell their positions. That may be hard to do, considering the implied move being priced in by the market is just 6.75%, as already noted.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/13056874964d6a821c5d80a23dd8cfae\" alt=\"Bloomberg\" title=\"Bloomberg\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"251\"/><span>Bloomberg</span></p><h2 id=\"id_623294998\">Already At Support</h2><p>From a technical perspective, Broadcom’s stock is currently trading around $155, a level that had previously served as support. The $170 area appears to be a key resistance point, while the $136 region has recently been a support zone.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/c37dc34a2c29767ce2b7f2bbae4a8beb\" alt=\"TradingView\" title=\"TradingView\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"291\"/><span>TradingView</span></p><h2 id=\"id_3577052737\">Not Cheap</h2><p>Valuation wise, Broadcom is trading at 26 times earnings, significantly higher than its historical average of around 13 to 14 times. On a price-to-sales basis, the stock is currently valued at 12 to 13 times sales, well above historical norms. This elevated valuation suggests that much of the optimism around Broadcom is tied to its AI prospects, despite the bulk of its growth coming from the VMware acquisition.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/8df38f6c2538ff1c591f7436fa2c929a\" alt=\"Bloomberg\" title=\"Bloomberg\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"288\"/><span>Bloomberg</span></p><p>While Broadcom’s AI business is expected to contribute significantly to its revenue in the coming years, its current valuation appears stretched, particularly when compared to its historical trends. Investors seem to be betting on further upside, but the steep valuation raises questions about whether Broadcom can continue to justify its premium valuation.</p><p>Additionally, the big risk here is that Broadcom does what it normally does when it reports results, delivering as expected. If that should happen, the overly bullish options market is likely to bring a lot of stock for sale, pushing shares lower, and making the call options a losing bet.</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Broadcom's Stock May Drop Sharply Following Results</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBroadcom's Stock May Drop Sharply Following Results\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-09-04 13:45 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4718714-broadcom-stock-may-drop-sharply-following-results><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Broadcom's Q3 earnings forecast shows a 15% year-over-year EPS increase and 46% year-over-year revenue growth, driven mainly by its infrastructure software segment.The software segment, bolstered by ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4718714-broadcom-stock-may-drop-sharply-following-results\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"LU0345769631.USD":"NINETY ONE GSF GLOBAL EQUITY \"A\" (USD) INC","LU0820561818.USD":"安联收益及增长平衡基金Cl AM DIS","BK4515":"5G概念","IE00BKVL7J92.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - US Equity Sustainability Leaders A Acc USD","LU0127658192.USD":"EASTSPRING INVESTMENTS GLOBAL TECHNOLOGY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0444971666.USD":"天利全球科技基金","LU0203345920.USD":"SCHRODER ISF QEP GLB ACT. VL \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","LU0256863811.USD":"ALLIANZ US EQUITY \"A\" INC","IE00BZ9MQY76.HKD":"FTGF CLEARBRIDGE US AGGRESSIVE GROWTH \"A\" (HKD) ACC","LU0476273544.USD":"CT (LUX) I GLOBAL TECHNOLOGY \"BU\" (USD) ACC","IE00BLSP4452.SGD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - Tactical Dividend Income A Mdis SGD-H Plus","LU0943347566.SGD":"安联收益及增长平衡基金AM H2-SGD","BK4575":"芯片概念","BK4566":"资本集团","LU0234570918.USD":"高盛全球核心股票组合Acc Close","LU0417517546.SGD":"Allianz US Equity Cl AT Acc SGD","LU0170899867.USD":"EASTSPRING INVESTMENTS WORLD VALUE EQUITY  \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0942090050.USD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY SICAV - US TOTAL YIELD SUSTAINABLE \"P\" (USD)  INC","LU0444973449.USD":"CT (LUX) I GLOBAL TECHNOLOGY \"DU\" (USD) ACC","LU0889565833.HKD":"FRANKLIN TECHNOLOGY \"A\" (HKD) ACC","IE00BN8TJ469.HKD":"FTGF CLEARBRIDGE TACTICAL DIVIDEND INCOME \"A\" (HKD) INC","BK4588":"碎股","LU0056508442.USD":"贝莱德世界科技基金A2","IE00B1XK9C88.USD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4141":"半导体产品","AVGO":"博通","LU0868494708.USD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY SICAV - US TOTAL YIELD SUSTAINABLE \"P\" (USD) INC","IE00BMPRXR70.SGD":"Neuberger Berman 5G Connectivity A Acc SGD-H","IE00BMPRXN33.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN 5G CONNECTIVITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4551":"寇图资本持仓","IE00BJLML261.HKD":"HSBC GLOBAL EQUITY INDEX \"HCH\" (HKD) ACC","LU0081259029.USD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY FUND - TECH OPPORTUNITY \"P\" (USD) ACC","LU0234572021.USD":"高盛美国核心股票组合Acc","LU0820561909.HKD":"ALLIANZ INCOME AND GROWTH \"AM\" (HKD) INC","LU0109392836.USD":"富兰克林科技股A","BK4581":"高盛持仓","IE00B5949003.HKD":"JANUS HENDERSON GLOBAL TECHNOLOGY AND INNOVATION \"A\" (HKD) ACC","IE00B19Z9Z06.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - US Aggressive Growth A Acc USD","IE00BWXC8680.SGD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A5\" (SGD) ACC","LU0097036916.USD":"贝莱德美国增长A2 USD","LU0466842654.USD":"HSBC ISLAMIC GLOBAL EQUITY INDEX \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0689472784.USD":"安联收益及增长基金Cl AM AT Acc","LU0345769128.USD":"NINETY ONE GSF GLOBAL EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0861579265.USD":"联博低波幅策略股票基金A","LU0198837287.USD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY SICAV - USA GROWTH \"P\" (USD) ACC","LU0323591593.USD":"SCHRODER ISF QEP GLOBAL QUALITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0096364046.USD":"CT (LUX) I AMERICAN \"DU\" (USD) ACC","IE00BMPRXQ63.HKD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN NEXT GENERATION CONNECTIVITY FUND \"A\" (HKDHDG) ACC"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4718714-broadcom-stock-may-drop-sharply-following-results","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"2464351176","content_text":"Broadcom's Q3 earnings forecast shows a 15% year-over-year EPS increase and 46% year-over-year revenue growth, driven mainly by its infrastructure software segment.The software segment, bolstered by VMware, is expected to double sales to $5.5 billion, overshadowing modest growth in semiconductor and AI segments.Despite impressive growth, Broadcom's valuation is high at 26 times earnings, raising concerns about the sustainability of its premium valuation.JHVEPhotoBroadcom (NASDAQ:AVGO) will report its fiscal third quarter earnings after the market closes on Sept. 5. Analysts are forecasting a 15% y/y increase in earnings per share to $1.22, alongside a significant 46% y/y growth in revenue, bringing the total to approximately $13 billion. However, it’s important to note that the growth in Broadcom’s Semiconductor Solutions segment is expected to be relatively modest, with an anticipated increase of just 7% y/y, reaching $7.4 billion. The company’s AI segment is projected to see only a slight uptick, growing by 5% q/q to $3.3 billion.AI or Not AIIn contrast, Broadcom’s infrastructure software segment drives much of the company’s overall growth. This unit is expected to see its sales more than double, reaching $5.5 billion, with VMware contributing $3.3 billion. This shift highlights Broadcom’s growth, which is increasingly coming from its software side, mainly through acquiring VMware, rather than from its traditional semiconductor business. This dynamic may surprise those who view Broadcom primarily as an AI-driven company, which makes up a relatively small amount of total revenue.BloombergDespite the company’s impressive growth figures, Broadcom no longer provides quarterly guidance, having shifted to offering only annual forecasts. For the current year, the company is targeting $51 billion in revenue, a figure that was reiterated last quarter. Analysts expect it to slightly exceed that at $51.7 billion.BloombergNo SurprisesBroadcom has a history of reporting in line with revenue estimates, with last quarter marking its most significant beat in recent times at 3.5%. Regarding adjusted earnings, the company also tends to beat expectations by a small margin, typically around 1%. Market expectations for Broadcom’s stock movement post earnings are modest, with a projected move of around 6.7%.BloombergOptions Betting on Further UpsideLooking at options positioning for the week of Sept. 6, implied volatility [IV] is relatively modest at 77%, though it should continue to rise heading into the earnings release as event risk builds. The options market is very bullish on Broadcom, as noted by the solid positive call gamma and delta values, particularly around the $160 strike price, with resistance at $170 and support near $150.It's important to note that once the event risk passes, the implied volatility will drop, and both the calls and the puts will see their premiums fall dramatically. As of Sept. 3, a buyer of the $160 calls needs the stock to rise above $166 following the results, or the options will lose value by 6.5%. This is similar to what happened with Nvidia, and if the stock cannot clear $160, option holders could sell their positions. That may be hard to do, considering the implied move being priced in by the market is just 6.75%, as already noted.BloombergAlready At SupportFrom a technical perspective, Broadcom’s stock is currently trading around $155, a level that had previously served as support. The $170 area appears to be a key resistance point, while the $136 region has recently been a support zone.TradingViewNot CheapValuation wise, Broadcom is trading at 26 times earnings, significantly higher than its historical average of around 13 to 14 times. On a price-to-sales basis, the stock is currently valued at 12 to 13 times sales, well above historical norms. This elevated valuation suggests that much of the optimism around Broadcom is tied to its AI prospects, despite the bulk of its growth coming from the VMware acquisition.BloombergWhile Broadcom’s AI business is expected to contribute significantly to its revenue in the coming years, its current valuation appears stretched, particularly when compared to its historical trends. Investors seem to be betting on further upside, but the steep valuation raises questions about whether Broadcom can continue to justify its premium valuation.Additionally, the big risk here is that Broadcom does what it normally does when it reports results, delivering as expected. If that should happen, the overly bullish options market is likely to bring a lot of stock for sale, pushing shares lower, and making the call options a losing bet.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":507,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}