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Icywinddale

Icywinddale

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04-10

What's the point of this shot report? Why? Tell me your points, stupid. Waste of time.

CrowdStrike, Other Cybersecurity Stocks Get Crushed. Why the Anthropic Bump Didn't Last

04-03

Sucker

The S&P 500 Could Hit Bottom by May — and 6,000 Is the Stock Market’s Correction Floor

02-26

This market is nuts. Full of shit

Michael Burry Draws Parallel Between Nvidia's Supply Commitments and Cisco's Dot-Com Bubble Peak

2025-12-11

What's the point of this bullshits? Waste of time to read!

2 Reasons Nvidia Stock Is Getting Hit By Oracle's Earnings

2025-12-04

Sucker, Microsoft already denied the fake news. Information nuts

Microsoft's Stock Falls On Reported AI Sales Woes. Should Investors Worry?

2025-11-25

Another drama

2025-11-11

😄this sucker short nvda and pLTR, He feel great now?

Michael Burry Warns of $176 Billion Depreciation Understatement by Tech Giants

2025-10-27

Your AI can't summarize?

This Hedge-Fund Giant Studied Over 30 Bubbles - And Came Away More Convinced That The AI Trade Is The Right One

2025-08-19

Pinehead

Palantir's Stock Slides 4%. Here's Why This Short-Seller Thinks Even a $40 Price Tag Is "Generous"

2025-08-12

Musk is a jerk. He had lost his mind.

Musk Accuses Apple of Antitrust Violation, Says xAI Will Take Legal Action

2025-01-30

Never waste your precious time on these kind stupid article. Totally nonsense. Tell something we don't know.

Nvidia Bearish Momentum Explained

2025-01-12

Bull shit

4 Underappreciated Risks Facing Nvidia Bulls

2024-12-17

Can not believe this kind shit article can be published. Who is the author?

Nvidia: This Could Be The Top

2024-12-03

Who is ‘Trend Force'? Only Chidren believe in this kind stupid news.

Production Hurdles for Nvidia's GB200 Spark Rumors of Microsoft Cutting Orders

2024-11-22

Now we know why democrats lost the election.

The DOJ-Google Fight Comes Into Focus. Why It's Finally Hitting Alphabet's Stock

2024-11-21

nonsense

Sorry, the original content has been removed

2024-10-31

Low level

Sorry, the original content has been removed

2024-09-27

Sucker, did you see MU earning？can't believe such low level article was here.

Sorry, the original content has been removed

2024-09-23

Take a look at what this guy say about NVDA, he is just a joke. Never listen to him.

Microsoft’s Stock Hit with a Rare Downgrade. Why This Analyst Says Stop Buying

2024-09-22

Brain-damaged articles

Sorry, the Fed Can't Save Us From a Bear Market

Go to Tiger App to see more news

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Why? Tell me your points, stupid. Waste of time.","listText":"What's the point of this shot report? Why? Tell me your points, stupid. Waste of time.","text":"What's the point of this shot report? Why? Tell me your points, stupid. Waste of time.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/552070018979352","repostId":"1185125296","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1185125296","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Dow Jones publishes the world’s most trusted business news and financial information in a variety of media.","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Dow Jones","id":"1012688067","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99"},"pubTimestamp":1775792996,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1185125296?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2026-04-10 11:49","market":"us","language":"en","title":"CrowdStrike, Other Cybersecurity Stocks Get Crushed. Why the Anthropic Bump Didn't Last","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1185125296","media":"Dow Jones","summary":"Cybersecurity stocks were falling sharply on Thursday after the sector rebounded earlier in the week, boosted by a new Anthropic project.$Palo Alto Networks(PANW)$ was down 3.9%, $CrowdStrike...","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Cybersecurity stocks were falling sharply on Thursday after the sector rebounded earlier in the week, boosted by a new Anthropic project.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PANW\">Palo Alto Networks</a> was down 3.9%, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CRWD\">CrowdStrike Holdings</a> was off 7.5%, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZS\">Zscaler</a> tumbled 11%, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SAIL\">SailPoint</a> dropped 11%, and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FTNT\">Fortinet</a> slid 3.4%.</p><p>The cybersecurity sector has been in a slump this year as some on Wall Street are worried about the impacts artificial intelligence will have on it. Aside from concerns that improving AI models can replace critical software functions, some investors are focused on how AI, and the implementation of AI agents, introduces more complex security challenges. The worry is that not all security firms will be able to handle new threats.</p><p>Anthropic announced a partnership called Project Glasswing on Tuesday, which alleviated some fears. The AI start-up is giving a collection of technology companies access to its Claude Mythos Preview model to defend critical software. Palo Alto and CrowdStrike were included as members in this partnership, which led analysts to believe the companies are in a good position to work through complex security concerns.</p><p>Palo Alto stock has gained 3.2% this week while CrowdStrike has risen 2.3%. Other cyber stocks saw a momentary lift the week, but that optimism didn’t last long.</p><p>“The winners in an AI-centric security world will be those that can re-architect products around AI workflows rather than simply bolting AI features onto legacy tools,” William Blair analyst Jonathan Ho wrote in a note on April 8.</p><p>Right now, there are no winners.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>CrowdStrike, Other Cybersecurity Stocks Get Crushed. Why the Anthropic Bump Didn't Last</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCrowdStrike, Other Cybersecurity Stocks Get Crushed. Why the Anthropic Bump Didn't Last\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1012688067\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Dow Jones </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-04-10 11:49</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>Cybersecurity stocks were falling sharply on Thursday after the sector rebounded earlier in the week, boosted by a new Anthropic project.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PANW\">Palo Alto Networks</a> was down 3.9%, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CRWD\">CrowdStrike Holdings</a> was off 7.5%, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZS\">Zscaler</a> tumbled 11%, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SAIL\">SailPoint</a> dropped 11%, and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FTNT\">Fortinet</a> slid 3.4%.</p><p>The cybersecurity sector has been in a slump this year as some on Wall Street are worried about the impacts artificial intelligence will have on it. Aside from concerns that improving AI models can replace critical software functions, some investors are focused on how AI, and the implementation of AI agents, introduces more complex security challenges. The worry is that not all security firms will be able to handle new threats.</p><p>Anthropic announced a partnership called Project Glasswing on Tuesday, which alleviated some fears. The AI start-up is giving a collection of technology companies access to its Claude Mythos Preview model to defend critical software. Palo Alto and CrowdStrike were included as members in this partnership, which led analysts to believe the companies are in a good position to work through complex security concerns.</p><p>Palo Alto stock has gained 3.2% this week while CrowdStrike has risen 2.3%. Other cyber stocks saw a momentary lift the week, but that optimism didn’t last long.</p><p>“The winners in an AI-centric security world will be those that can re-architect products around AI workflows rather than simply bolting AI features onto legacy tools,” William Blair analyst Jonathan Ho wrote in a note on April 8.</p><p>Right now, there are no winners.</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"OKTA":"Okta Inc.","CSCO":"思科","DT":"Dynatrace Holdings LLC","S":"SentinelOne, Inc","FTNT":"飞塔信息","CYBR":"Cyber-Ark Software","ZS":"Zscaler Inc.","CRWD":"CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc.","PANW":"Palo Alto Networks","NET":"Cloudflare, Inc.","BUG":"Global X Cybersecurity ETF"},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1185125296","content_text":"Cybersecurity stocks were falling sharply on Thursday after the sector rebounded earlier in the week, boosted by a new Anthropic project.Palo Alto Networks was down 3.9%, CrowdStrike Holdings was off 7.5%, Zscaler tumbled 11%, SailPoint dropped 11%, and Fortinet slid 3.4%.The cybersecurity sector has been in a slump this year as some on Wall Street are worried about the impacts artificial intelligence will have on it. Aside from concerns that improving AI models can replace critical software functions, some investors are focused on how AI, and the implementation of AI agents, introduces more complex security challenges. The worry is that not all security firms will be able to handle new threats.Anthropic announced a partnership called Project Glasswing on Tuesday, which alleviated some fears. The AI start-up is giving a collection of technology companies access to its Claude Mythos Preview model to defend critical software. Palo Alto and CrowdStrike were included as members in this partnership, which led analysts to believe the companies are in a good position to work through complex security concerns.Palo Alto stock has gained 3.2% this week while CrowdStrike has risen 2.3%. Other cyber stocks saw a momentary lift the week, but that optimism didn’t last long.“The winners in an AI-centric security world will be those that can re-architect products around AI workflows rather than simply bolting AI features onto legacy tools,” William Blair analyst Jonathan Ho wrote in a note on April 8.Right now, there are no winners.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"PANW":2,"CRWD":2,"FTNT":2,"S":2,"CSCO":2,"NET":2,"CYBR":2,"ZS":2,"BUG":2,"OKTA":2,"DT":2}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":168,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":549709280067920,"gmtCreate":1775227549185,"gmtModify":1775228137757,"author":{"id":"3574807189087941","authorId":"3574807189087941","name":"Icywinddale","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/3bd2fbf9d90e26b2f600b2c5d7c54244","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574807189087941","idStr":"3574807189087941"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Sucker","listText":"Sucker","text":"Sucker","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/549709280067920","repostId":"2624504747","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2624504747","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Dow Jones publishes the world’s most trusted business news and financial information in a variety of media.","home_visible":0,"media_name":"Dow Jones","id":"106","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99"},"pubTimestamp":1775224800,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2624504747?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2026-04-03 22:00","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The S&P 500 Could Hit Bottom by May — and 6,000 Is the Stock Market’s Correction Floor","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2624504747","media":"Dow Jones","summary":"Strong one-day rallies are far more common in weak markets.","content":"<html><head></head><body><p style=\"text-align: start;\">After the stock market’s huge rally on March 31, plus another up day on April 1, discussing a correction might seem overly pessimistic. But in fact, strong single-day rallies like the one earlier this week are far more common in weak markets.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">If the stock market’s recent decline turns out to be no worse than a garden-variety correction, the S&amp;P 500 will hit bottom on May 21 around the 6,000 level.</p><p>That’s assuming the length and depth of any correction will match the average of all S&amp;P 500 corrections since 1928. On that assumption, after hitting its late May bottom, the stock market will rebound — and by Oct. 12, it should surpass its Jan. 27, 2026, all-time closing high.</p><p>These specific timelines are illustrated in the chart below, which reflects the Nasdaq Composite since its creation in 1971. The red line — at the 24.8% mark — shows the percentage of days since then that occurred during one of the major bear markets in the bull/bear calendar maintained by Ned Davis Research. Notice that a far higher percentage of big one-day rallies occurred during one of those bear markets — in the 60% to 80% range.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/27b90d6ca06f877abea1ef79d6690d37\" alt=\"\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"454\"/></p><p>Your perspective in this discussion hinges on whether you’re a long-term investor or short-term trader. For long-term investors, corrections are nothing more than a cost of doing business. Having to wait six months until the market is back at all-time-high territory (which will be the case if the correction is average) is a small price to fully participate in the stock market’s long-term uptrend.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Short-term traders will lament that, even if this correction is no worse than average, the stock market will shed 10% and you’ll have to wait until October to be made whole again.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Regardless of your perspective, you should know that there is significant variation in the sample on either side of this historical average. As you can see below, S&amp;P 500 corrections over the past century have been as short as 13 days and as long as 531 days (18 months). Subsequent recoveries to new all-time highs have been as quick as 22 days and as slow as 589 days (19 months).</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/c284d23115cd937ae431b9c3f670a9b6\" alt=\"\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"113\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">This discussion so far has assumed that U.S. market weakness will bring no worse than a typical correction — a decline of 10% to 20%.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">If it is worse and this is actually the start of a bear market — and its length and loss are equal to the average over the past century — the S&amp;P 500 will bottom nine months from now, on Jan. 2, 2027, at 4,429, for a loss of about 30%. And the market’s subsequent recovery won’t surpass the Jan. 27, 2026 record high until April 2, 2031.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">That is definitely a scarier prospect. Fortunately, bear markets are less frequent than corrections. Of the greater-than-10% declines in the S&amp;P 500 since 1928, 39% represented the start of a bear market. So there may be some solace in knowing that, based on these numbers alone, a bear market probably isn’t beginning.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The S&P 500 Could Hit Bottom by May — and 6,000 Is the Stock Market’s Correction Floor</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe S&P 500 Could Hit Bottom by May — and 6,000 Is the Stock Market’s Correction Floor\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Dow Jones </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-04-03 22:00</p>\n</div>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p style=\"text-align: start;\">After the stock market’s huge rally on March 31, plus another up day on April 1, discussing a correction might seem overly pessimistic. But in fact, strong single-day rallies like the one earlier this week are far more common in weak markets.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">If the stock market’s recent decline turns out to be no worse than a garden-variety correction, the S&amp;P 500 will hit bottom on May 21 around the 6,000 level.</p><p>That’s assuming the length and depth of any correction will match the average of all S&amp;P 500 corrections since 1928. On that assumption, after hitting its late May bottom, the stock market will rebound — and by Oct. 12, it should surpass its Jan. 27, 2026, all-time closing high.</p><p>These specific timelines are illustrated in the chart below, which reflects the Nasdaq Composite since its creation in 1971. The red line — at the 24.8% mark — shows the percentage of days since then that occurred during one of the major bear markets in the bull/bear calendar maintained by Ned Davis Research. Notice that a far higher percentage of big one-day rallies occurred during one of those bear markets — in the 60% to 80% range.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/27b90d6ca06f877abea1ef79d6690d37\" alt=\"\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"454\"/></p><p>Your perspective in this discussion hinges on whether you’re a long-term investor or short-term trader. For long-term investors, corrections are nothing more than a cost of doing business. Having to wait six months until the market is back at all-time-high territory (which will be the case if the correction is average) is a small price to fully participate in the stock market’s long-term uptrend.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Short-term traders will lament that, even if this correction is no worse than average, the stock market will shed 10% and you’ll have to wait until October to be made whole again.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Regardless of your perspective, you should know that there is significant variation in the sample on either side of this historical average. As you can see below, S&amp;P 500 corrections over the past century have been as short as 13 days and as long as 531 days (18 months). Subsequent recoveries to new all-time highs have been as quick as 22 days and as slow as 589 days (19 months).</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/c284d23115cd937ae431b9c3f670a9b6\" alt=\"\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"113\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">This discussion so far has assumed that U.S. market weakness will bring no worse than a typical correction — a decline of 10% to 20%.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">If it is worse and this is actually the start of a bear market — and its length and loss are equal to the average over the past century — the S&amp;P 500 will bottom nine months from now, on Jan. 2, 2027, at 4,429, for a loss of about 30%. And the market’s subsequent recovery won’t surpass the Jan. 27, 2026 record high until April 2, 2031.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">That is definitely a scarier prospect. Fortunately, bear markets are less frequent than corrections. Of the greater-than-10% declines in the S&amp;P 500 since 1928, 39% represented the start of a bear market. So there may be some solace in knowing that, based on these numbers alone, a bear market probably isn’t beginning.</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"RSP":"平均加权指数ETF-Rydex S&P","SPYM":"投资组合标普500指数ETF-SPDR","NOBL":"ProShares S&P 500 Aristocrats ETF","SPHD":"标普500高股利投资组合ETF-PowerShares","SPYQ":"2倍做多SPY Quarterly ETF-Tradr","SPHQ":"Invesco S&P 500 Quality ETF","BK4581":"高盛持仓","SPDN":"Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bear 1X Shares","SPMO":"Invesco S&P 500 Momentum ETF","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","JEPI":"JPMorgan Equity Premium Income ETF","ALLW":"SPDR BRIDGEWATER ALL WEATHER ETF","XDTE":"Roundhill S&P 500 0DTE Covered Call Strategy ETF","VOO":"Vanguard标普500ETF","SPY":"标普500ETF","HIBL":"Direxion Daily S&P 500 High Beta Bull 3X Shares","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","IVE":"标普500价值指数ETF-iShares","VTV":"Vanguard Value ETF","OEX":"标普100","SPYV":"SPDR Portfolio S&P 500 Value ETF","IVW":"标普500成长股指数ETF-iShares","ACWI":"MSCI全球ETF-iShares","DBSC":"Deepwater Beachfront Small Cap ETF","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","SPXL":"三倍做多标普500ETF-Direxion","SPUU":"Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bull 2x Shares","GPIX":"GOLDMAN SACHS S&P 500 CORE PREMIUM INCOME ETF","SPYD":"SPDR Portfolio S&P 500 High Dividend ETF","BK4504":"桥水持仓","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","SPYG":"SPDR Portfolio S&P 500 Growth ETF","BMAY":"Innovator U.S. Equity Buffer ETF - May","SPUS":"SP Funds S&P 500 Sharia Industry Exclusions ETF","IVOO":"Vanguard S&P Mid-Cap 400 ETF","ETFT":"Fundsmith Equity ETF","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","BK4588":"碎股","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","SPXS":"三倍做空标普500ETF-Direxion","VEU":"Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US ETF","XYLD":"Global X S&P 500 Covered Call ETF","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SPLV":"Invesco S&P 500 Low Volatility ETF","SPYI":"NEOS S&P 500 High Income ETF","MOAT":"VanEck Morningstar Wide Moat ETF","VTI":"大盘指数ETF-Vanguard MSCI"},"source_url":"https://dowjonesnews.com/newdjn/logon.aspx?AL=N","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2624504747","content_text":"After the stock market’s huge rally on March 31, plus another up day on April 1, discussing a correction might seem overly pessimistic. But in fact, strong single-day rallies like the one earlier this week are far more common in weak markets.If the stock market’s recent decline turns out to be no worse than a garden-variety correction, the S&P 500 will hit bottom on May 21 around the 6,000 level.That’s assuming the length and depth of any correction will match the average of all S&P 500 corrections since 1928. On that assumption, after hitting its late May bottom, the stock market will rebound — and by Oct. 12, it should surpass its Jan. 27, 2026, all-time closing high.These specific timelines are illustrated in the chart below, which reflects the Nasdaq Composite since its creation in 1971. The red line — at the 24.8% mark — shows the percentage of days since then that occurred during one of the major bear markets in the bull/bear calendar maintained by Ned Davis Research. Notice that a far higher percentage of big one-day rallies occurred during one of those bear markets — in the 60% to 80% range.Your perspective in this discussion hinges on whether you’re a long-term investor or short-term trader. For long-term investors, corrections are nothing more than a cost of doing business. Having to wait six months until the market is back at all-time-high territory (which will be the case if the correction is average) is a small price to fully participate in the stock market’s long-term uptrend.Short-term traders will lament that, even if this correction is no worse than average, the stock market will shed 10% and you’ll have to wait until October to be made whole again.Regardless of your perspective, you should know that there is significant variation in the sample on either side of this historical average. As you can see below, S&P 500 corrections over the past century have been as short as 13 days and as long as 531 days (18 months). Subsequent recoveries to new all-time highs have been as quick as 22 days and as slow as 589 days (19 months).This discussion so far has assumed that U.S. market weakness will bring no worse than a typical correction — a decline of 10% to 20%.If it is worse and this is actually the start of a bear market — and its length and loss are equal to the average over the past century — the S&P 500 will bottom nine months from now, on Jan. 2, 2027, at 4,429, for a loss of about 30%. And the market’s subsequent recovery won’t surpass the Jan. 27, 2026 record high until April 2, 2031.That is definitely a scarier prospect. Fortunately, bear markets are less frequent than corrections. Of the greater-than-10% declines in the S&P 500 since 1928, 39% represented the start of a bear market. So there may be some solace in knowing that, based on these numbers alone, a bear market probably isn’t beginning.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SPYQ":0.6,"NOBL":0.6,"BMAY":0.6,"SPHQ":0.6,"SPUS":0.6,"MESmain":0.6,"HIBL":0.6,"SPYI":0.6,"RSP":0.6,"SPXL":0.6,"IVV":0.6,"IVOO":0.6,"SPHD":0.6,"SPMO":0.6,"SSO":0.6,"JEPI":0.6,"MOAT":0.6,"OEF":0.6,"VEU":0.6,"ACWI":0.6,"IVE":0.6,"SPYG":0.6,"ALLW":0.6,"XYLD":0.6,"VTI":0.6,"ETFT":0.6,"SPDN":0.6,"SPYV":0.6,"VTV":0.6,"SDS":0.6,"SPYD":0.6,"OEX":0.6,"SPUU":0.6,"SPXS":0.6,"DBSC":0.6,"GPIX":0.6,"SH":0.6,"SPYM":0.6,".SPX":1.97,"ESmain":0.6,"XDTE":0.6,"SPLV":0.6,"IVW":0.6,"SPXU":0.6,"SPY":0.6,"VOO":0.6,"UPRO":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":249,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":536994292802960,"gmtCreate":1772121507035,"gmtModify":1772121782631,"author":{"id":"3574807189087941","authorId":"3574807189087941","name":"Icywinddale","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/3bd2fbf9d90e26b2f600b2c5d7c54244","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574807189087941","idStr":"3574807189087941"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"This market is nuts. Full of shit","listText":"This market is nuts. Full of shit","text":"This market is nuts. Full of shit","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/536994292802960","repostId":"1132296049","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1132296049","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1772120772,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1132296049?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2026-02-26 23:46","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Michael Burry Draws Parallel Between Nvidia's Supply Commitments and Cisco's Dot-Com Bubble Peak","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1132296049","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Michael Burry, renowned for his role in \"The Big Short,\" is reinforcing his pessimistic outlook on Nvidia, highlighting a concerning detail in the chipmaker's recent financial results that resembles...","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Michael Burry, renowned for his role in &#34;The Big Short,&#34; is reinforcing his pessimistic outlook on Nvidia, highlighting a concerning detail in the chipmaker&#39;s recent financial results that resembles trends observed during the peak of the late 1990s dot-com bubble. </p><p>In a newsletter published on Thursday, Burry pointed to a significant increase in Nvidia&#39;s purchase obligations, which jumped to $95.2 billion from $16.1 billion the previous year.</p><p>Nvidia&#39;s shares traded near session lows on Thursday, declining about 5%.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/d54f958bd0637b6bfb2cc1cdf92c83f4\" tg-width=\"825\" tg-height=\"621\"/></p><p>Combined supply commitments, encompassing inventory and purchase agreements, now total approximately $117 billion, nearly equaling Nvidia&#39;s annual operating cash flow. During the company&#39;s fiscal fourth-quarter earnings call on Wednesday, Chief Financial Officer Colette Kress noted that inventory grew by 8% compared to the previous quarter.</p><p>She stated that Nvidia had &#34;strategically secured inventory and capacity to meet demand beyond the next several quarters, further out in time than usual.&#34; According to Burry, these remarks indicate that the largest U.S. publicly traded company is committing to purchase substantial supply before fully understanding future demand strength.</p><p>This strategy results in more capital being allocated to inventory for extended periods. Burry emphasized that the current situation is &#34;not temporary,&#34; nor is it caused by an external export shock. He described it as originating from within the company&#39;s business plan, reflecting a deliberate decision to secure supply chain capacity more extensively than ever before.</p><p>The prominent investor compared the circumstances to those faced by Cisco Systems during the height of the dot-com boom around 2000-2001. During that period, Cisco secured large supply commitments to support anticipated rapid growth.</p><p>When corporate technology spending abruptly declined, Cisco was burdened with excess inventory and contractual obligations it could not utilize, ultimately leading to multi-billion dollar write-downs and a sharp stock price decline.</p><p>Burry commented that Nvidia&#39;s current actions represent significant risk, not standard business practice. He recalled that Cisco had similarly extended purchase commitments with suppliers to ensure capacity for its projected 50% annual growth.</p><p>While acknowledging that Nvidia&#39;s current profit margins, exceeding 70%, are higher than Cisco&#39;s were at the time—potentially offering some protection against downturns—Burry suggested these margins have been inflated by exceptionally strong demand and Nvidia&#39;s pricing power. He warned that such high margins could quickly diminish if demand shifts.</p><p>Not all observers view the inventory buildup as a warning signal. Analysts at Rosenblatt Securities noted that Nvidia&#39;s management addressed various investor concerns during the quarter, including GPU capacity, competition from custom chips, power availability, memory supply, and customer financing.</p><p>The firm described Nvidia&#39;s leadership as confident in supporting customer demand for its next-generation platforms and continuing to lead AI market development. On Thursday, Rosenblatt raised its 12-month price target for Nvidia to $300 from $245, implying potential gains of over 50% in the next year.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Michael Burry Draws Parallel Between Nvidia's Supply Commitments and Cisco's Dot-Com Bubble Peak</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMichael Burry Draws Parallel Between Nvidia's Supply Commitments and Cisco's Dot-Com Bubble Peak\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-02-26 23:46</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>Michael Burry, renowned for his role in &#34;The Big Short,&#34; is reinforcing his pessimistic outlook on Nvidia, highlighting a concerning detail in the chipmaker&#39;s recent financial results that resembles trends observed during the peak of the late 1990s dot-com bubble. </p><p>In a newsletter published on Thursday, Burry pointed to a significant increase in Nvidia&#39;s purchase obligations, which jumped to $95.2 billion from $16.1 billion the previous year.</p><p>Nvidia&#39;s shares traded near session lows on Thursday, declining about 5%.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/d54f958bd0637b6bfb2cc1cdf92c83f4\" tg-width=\"825\" tg-height=\"621\"/></p><p>Combined supply commitments, encompassing inventory and purchase agreements, now total approximately $117 billion, nearly equaling Nvidia&#39;s annual operating cash flow. During the company&#39;s fiscal fourth-quarter earnings call on Wednesday, Chief Financial Officer Colette Kress noted that inventory grew by 8% compared to the previous quarter.</p><p>She stated that Nvidia had &#34;strategically secured inventory and capacity to meet demand beyond the next several quarters, further out in time than usual.&#34; According to Burry, these remarks indicate that the largest U.S. publicly traded company is committing to purchase substantial supply before fully understanding future demand strength.</p><p>This strategy results in more capital being allocated to inventory for extended periods. Burry emphasized that the current situation is &#34;not temporary,&#34; nor is it caused by an external export shock. He described it as originating from within the company&#39;s business plan, reflecting a deliberate decision to secure supply chain capacity more extensively than ever before.</p><p>The prominent investor compared the circumstances to those faced by Cisco Systems during the height of the dot-com boom around 2000-2001. During that period, Cisco secured large supply commitments to support anticipated rapid growth.</p><p>When corporate technology spending abruptly declined, Cisco was burdened with excess inventory and contractual obligations it could not utilize, ultimately leading to multi-billion dollar write-downs and a sharp stock price decline.</p><p>Burry commented that Nvidia&#39;s current actions represent significant risk, not standard business practice. He recalled that Cisco had similarly extended purchase commitments with suppliers to ensure capacity for its projected 50% annual growth.</p><p>While acknowledging that Nvidia&#39;s current profit margins, exceeding 70%, are higher than Cisco&#39;s were at the time—potentially offering some protection against downturns—Burry suggested these margins have been inflated by exceptionally strong demand and Nvidia&#39;s pricing power. He warned that such high margins could quickly diminish if demand shifts.</p><p>Not all observers view the inventory buildup as a warning signal. Analysts at Rosenblatt Securities noted that Nvidia&#39;s management addressed various investor concerns during the quarter, including GPU capacity, competition from custom chips, power availability, memory supply, and customer financing.</p><p>The firm described Nvidia&#39;s leadership as confident in supporting customer demand for its next-generation platforms and continuing to lead AI market development. On Thursday, Rosenblatt raised its 12-month price target for Nvidia to $300 from $245, implying potential gains of over 50% in the next year.</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NVDA":"英伟达"},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1132296049","content_text":"Michael Burry, renowned for his role in \"The Big Short,\" is reinforcing his pessimistic outlook on Nvidia, highlighting a concerning detail in the chipmaker's recent financial results that resembles trends observed during the peak of the late 1990s dot-com bubble. In a newsletter published on Thursday, Burry pointed to a significant increase in Nvidia's purchase obligations, which jumped to $95.2 billion from $16.1 billion the previous year.Nvidia's shares traded near session lows on Thursday, declining about 5%.Combined supply commitments, encompassing inventory and purchase agreements, now total approximately $117 billion, nearly equaling Nvidia's annual operating cash flow. During the company's fiscal fourth-quarter earnings call on Wednesday, Chief Financial Officer Colette Kress noted that inventory grew by 8% compared to the previous quarter.She stated that Nvidia had \"strategically secured inventory and capacity to meet demand beyond the next several quarters, further out in time than usual.\" According to Burry, these remarks indicate that the largest U.S. publicly traded company is committing to purchase substantial supply before fully understanding future demand strength.This strategy results in more capital being allocated to inventory for extended periods. Burry emphasized that the current situation is \"not temporary,\" nor is it caused by an external export shock. He described it as originating from within the company's business plan, reflecting a deliberate decision to secure supply chain capacity more extensively than ever before.The prominent investor compared the circumstances to those faced by Cisco Systems during the height of the dot-com boom around 2000-2001. During that period, Cisco secured large supply commitments to support anticipated rapid growth.When corporate technology spending abruptly declined, Cisco was burdened with excess inventory and contractual obligations it could not utilize, ultimately leading to multi-billion dollar write-downs and a sharp stock price decline.Burry commented that Nvidia's current actions represent significant risk, not standard business practice. He recalled that Cisco had similarly extended purchase commitments with suppliers to ensure capacity for its projected 50% annual growth.While acknowledging that Nvidia's current profit margins, exceeding 70%, are higher than Cisco's were at the time—potentially offering some protection against downturns—Burry suggested these margins have been inflated by exceptionally strong demand and Nvidia's pricing power. He warned that such high margins could quickly diminish if demand shifts.Not all observers view the inventory buildup as a warning signal. Analysts at Rosenblatt Securities noted that Nvidia's management addressed various investor concerns during the quarter, including GPU capacity, competition from custom chips, power availability, memory supply, and customer financing.The firm described Nvidia's leadership as confident in supporting customer demand for its next-generation platforms and continuing to lead AI market development. On Thursday, Rosenblatt raised its 12-month price target for Nvidia to $300 from $245, implying potential gains of over 50% in the next year.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NVDA":2}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":341,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":509671598838344,"gmtCreate":1765462964087,"gmtModify":1765463537210,"author":{"id":"3574807189087941","authorId":"3574807189087941","name":"Icywinddale","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/3bd2fbf9d90e26b2f600b2c5d7c54244","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574807189087941","idStr":"3574807189087941"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"What's the point of this bullshits? Waste of time to read!","listText":"What's the point of this bullshits? Waste of time to read!","text":"What's the point of this bullshits? Waste of time to read!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/509671598838344","repostId":"1142046315","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1142046315","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Dow Jones publishes the world’s most trusted business news and financial information in a variety of media.","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Dow Jones","id":"1012688067","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99"},"pubTimestamp":1765459198,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1142046315?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2025-12-11 21:19","market":"us","language":"en","title":"2 Reasons Nvidia Stock Is Getting Hit By Oracle's Earnings","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1142046315","media":"Dow Jones","summary":"Nvidia was falling early on Thursday. The chip maker was being dragged down by fears of an artificial-intelligence bubble reignited by earnings from software and cloud-computing company Oracle.Nvidia...","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Nvidia was falling early on Thursday. The chip maker was being dragged down by fears of an artificial-intelligence bubble reignited by earnings from software and cloud-computing company Oracle.</p><p>Nvidia shares were down 1.8% at $180.50 in premarket trading. Futures tied to the benchmark S&amp;P 500 were falling 0.5%.</p><p>Stocks exposed to the AI trend were being hit as Oracle slumped 12% in the premarket following earnings where guidance came in short of estimates and it raised its spending forecast. Oracle spent a record $12 billion in capital expenditures in its most recent quarter, higher than the $8.4 billion Wall Street was expecting. It also boosted its full-year capital-expenditure forecast from $35 billion to $50 billion.</p><p>While capex investment has been a boost for Nvidia and other chip companies making the graphics-processing units and central-processing units powering AI, investors look to be worried such spending is unsustainable. Nvidia shareholders might have been spooked by Oracle’s comments that it will also strike deals with competing providers of chips.</p><p>“We are now committed to a policy of chip neutrality where we work closely with all our CPU and GPU suppliers. Of course, we will continue to buy the latest GPUs from Nvidia, but we need to be prepared and able to deploy whatever chips our customers want to buy,” said Oracle executive chair Larry Ellison in a statement.</p><p>Oracle said in October that it would expand its relationship with Advanced Micro Devices, as a launch partner for the first publicly available AI “supercluster” powered by AMD’s next-generation Instinct MI450 graphics processing units, or GPUs. The pair will deploy 50,000 chips starting in the third quarter of 2026.</p><p>Among other chip makers, Advanced Micro Devices was down 1.8% and Broadcom was falling 1.7% in premarket trading. Broadcom is reporting earnings after the market close on Thursday.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>2 Reasons Nvidia Stock Is Getting Hit By Oracle's Earnings</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n2 Reasons Nvidia Stock Is Getting Hit By Oracle's Earnings\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1012688067\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Dow Jones </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2025-12-11 21:19</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>Nvidia was falling early on Thursday. The chip maker was being dragged down by fears of an artificial-intelligence bubble reignited by earnings from software and cloud-computing company Oracle.</p><p>Nvidia shares were down 1.8% at $180.50 in premarket trading. Futures tied to the benchmark S&amp;P 500 were falling 0.5%.</p><p>Stocks exposed to the AI trend were being hit as Oracle slumped 12% in the premarket following earnings where guidance came in short of estimates and it raised its spending forecast. Oracle spent a record $12 billion in capital expenditures in its most recent quarter, higher than the $8.4 billion Wall Street was expecting. It also boosted its full-year capital-expenditure forecast from $35 billion to $50 billion.</p><p>While capex investment has been a boost for Nvidia and other chip companies making the graphics-processing units and central-processing units powering AI, investors look to be worried such spending is unsustainable. Nvidia shareholders might have been spooked by Oracle’s comments that it will also strike deals with competing providers of chips.</p><p>“We are now committed to a policy of chip neutrality where we work closely with all our CPU and GPU suppliers. Of course, we will continue to buy the latest GPUs from Nvidia, but we need to be prepared and able to deploy whatever chips our customers want to buy,” said Oracle executive chair Larry Ellison in a statement.</p><p>Oracle said in October that it would expand its relationship with Advanced Micro Devices, as a launch partner for the first publicly available AI “supercluster” powered by AMD’s next-generation Instinct MI450 graphics processing units, or GPUs. The pair will deploy 50,000 chips starting in the third quarter of 2026.</p><p>Among other chip makers, Advanced Micro Devices was down 1.8% and Broadcom was falling 1.7% in premarket trading. Broadcom is reporting earnings after the market close on Thursday.</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NVDA":"英伟达"},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1142046315","content_text":"Nvidia was falling early on Thursday. The chip maker was being dragged down by fears of an artificial-intelligence bubble reignited by earnings from software and cloud-computing company Oracle.Nvidia shares were down 1.8% at $180.50 in premarket trading. Futures tied to the benchmark S&P 500 were falling 0.5%.Stocks exposed to the AI trend were being hit as Oracle slumped 12% in the premarket following earnings where guidance came in short of estimates and it raised its spending forecast. Oracle spent a record $12 billion in capital expenditures in its most recent quarter, higher than the $8.4 billion Wall Street was expecting. It also boosted its full-year capital-expenditure forecast from $35 billion to $50 billion.While capex investment has been a boost for Nvidia and other chip companies making the graphics-processing units and central-processing units powering AI, investors look to be worried such spending is unsustainable. Nvidia shareholders might have been spooked by Oracle’s comments that it will also strike deals with competing providers of chips.“We are now committed to a policy of chip neutrality where we work closely with all our CPU and GPU suppliers. Of course, we will continue to buy the latest GPUs from Nvidia, but we need to be prepared and able to deploy whatever chips our customers want to buy,” said Oracle executive chair Larry Ellison in a statement.Oracle said in October that it would expand its relationship with Advanced Micro Devices, as a launch partner for the first publicly available AI “supercluster” powered by AMD’s next-generation Instinct MI450 graphics processing units, or GPUs. The pair will deploy 50,000 chips starting in the third quarter of 2026.Among other chip makers, Advanced Micro Devices was down 1.8% and Broadcom was falling 1.7% in premarket trading. Broadcom is reporting earnings after the market close on Thursday.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NVDA":2}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1448,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":507029851910888,"gmtCreate":1764808378544,"gmtModify":1764811702809,"author":{"id":"3574807189087941","authorId":"3574807189087941","name":"Icywinddale","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/3bd2fbf9d90e26b2f600b2c5d7c54244","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574807189087941","idStr":"3574807189087941"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Sucker, Microsoft already denied the fake news. Information nuts","listText":"Sucker, Microsoft already denied the fake news. Information nuts","text":"Sucker, Microsoft already denied the fake news. Information nuts","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/507029851910888","repostId":"2588078687","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2588078687","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Dow Jones publishes the world’s most trusted business news and financial information in a variety of media.","home_visible":0,"media_name":"Dow Jones","id":"106","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99"},"pubTimestamp":1764806220,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2588078687?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2025-12-04 07:57","market":"sh","language":"en","title":"Microsoft's Stock Falls On Reported AI Sales Woes. Should Investors Worry?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2588078687","media":"Dow Jones","summary":"The latest source of Wall Street debate is a report saying that Microsoft lowered sales-growth targets for some artificial-intelligence software.To investors who have been increasingly concerned...","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>The latest source of Wall Street debate is a report saying that Microsoft lowered sales-growth targets for some artificial-intelligence software.</p><p>To investors who have been increasingly concerned about a bubble, the report came as validation that AI isn&#39;t so easy to monetize. But some analysts on Wall Street said investors shouldn&#39;t be worried.</p><p>At the center of the debate is a report from The Information, which said Microsoft <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">$(MSFT)$</a> had lowered quotas across a number of divisions after salespeople missed targets for certain AI products in the fiscal year that ended in June. The story cited people in Microsoft&#39;s Azure cloud unit.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EVR\">Evercore</a> ISI analyst Kirk Materne wrote in a Wednesday note that it is still early in the current fiscal year, and that &#34;the key with quota setting is not to make it too hard or too easy to clear the bar.&#34;</p><p>Therefore, Materne said he doesn&#39;t &#34;view quota adjustments, especially at the product level, as a huge surprise&#34; at this point in the year.</p><p>Mizuho desk-based analyst Jordan Klein thinks Microsoft&#39;s move wouldn&#39;t necessarily have been a sudden decision, meaning the company&#39;s guidance for Azure growth likely already factored in the lowered quotas when the company reported earnings results in October.</p><p>&#34;We do not even know how high the prior sales quotas were&#34; between last year and this year, Klein said. &#34;Maybe they were artificially too high and are much more realistic and still pretty good.&#34;</p><p>A Microsoft spokesperson said in a statement shared with MarketWatch that the article &#34;inaccurately combines the concepts of growth and sales quotas, which shows their lack of understanding of the way a sales organization works and is compensated.&#34;</p><p>The spokesperson said that &#34;aggregate sales quotas for AI products have not been lowered.&#34;</p><p>The company&#39;s Foundry platform, which allows users to develop and deploy AI agents and applications, is reportedly one of the offerings for which sales quotas were lowered. Cutting targets is uncommon for the tech giant and could reflect a resistance to new products, The Information said.</p><p>However, Foundry only makes up &#34;a tiny part of Azure,&#34; Materne said. While cuts aren&#39;t a great look for the company, they &#34;might speak more to the fact that both <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNOW\">Snowflake</a> and Databricks are formidable competitors/partners in this area and there could be a view that it&#39;s better to partner [versus] compete at certain levels of the stack,&#34; he said.</p><p>Recapping a recent meeting with the company, Materne said Microsoft &#34;could not be more direct that demand is strong, especially for Azure,&#34; which is seeing demand overtake capacity.</p><p>Microsoft&#39;s stock fell as much as 3% on Wednesday morning and ended the day off 2.5%.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/efda1495c6b1c8892212f7b809114d54\" tg-width=\"903\" tg-height=\"822\"/></p><p>Taken together with recent market jitters over OpenAI&#39;s dominance after the release of Google&#39;s <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">$(GOOG)$</a> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOGL\">$(GOOGL)$</a> Gemini 3, Materne said he isn&#39;t surprised that the report sent Microsoft&#39;s stock down.</p><p>&#34;We would be using the weakness as a buying opportunity into 2026,&#34; Materne said.</p><p>Klein, meanwhile, said the report &#34;is backward looking to June [versus] forward looking.&#34;</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Microsoft's Stock Falls On Reported AI Sales Woes. Should Investors Worry?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMicrosoft's Stock Falls On Reported AI Sales Woes. Should Investors Worry?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Dow Jones </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2025-12-04 07:57</p>\n</div>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>The latest source of Wall Street debate is a report saying that Microsoft lowered sales-growth targets for some artificial-intelligence software.</p><p>To investors who have been increasingly concerned about a bubble, the report came as validation that AI isn&#39;t so easy to monetize. But some analysts on Wall Street said investors shouldn&#39;t be worried.</p><p>At the center of the debate is a report from The Information, which said Microsoft <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">$(MSFT)$</a> had lowered quotas across a number of divisions after salespeople missed targets for certain AI products in the fiscal year that ended in June. The story cited people in Microsoft&#39;s Azure cloud unit.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EVR\">Evercore</a> ISI analyst Kirk Materne wrote in a Wednesday note that it is still early in the current fiscal year, and that &#34;the key with quota setting is not to make it too hard or too easy to clear the bar.&#34;</p><p>Therefore, Materne said he doesn&#39;t &#34;view quota adjustments, especially at the product level, as a huge surprise&#34; at this point in the year.</p><p>Mizuho desk-based analyst Jordan Klein thinks Microsoft&#39;s move wouldn&#39;t necessarily have been a sudden decision, meaning the company&#39;s guidance for Azure growth likely already factored in the lowered quotas when the company reported earnings results in October.</p><p>&#34;We do not even know how high the prior sales quotas were&#34; between last year and this year, Klein said. &#34;Maybe they were artificially too high and are much more realistic and still pretty good.&#34;</p><p>A Microsoft spokesperson said in a statement shared with MarketWatch that the article &#34;inaccurately combines the concepts of growth and sales quotas, which shows their lack of understanding of the way a sales organization works and is compensated.&#34;</p><p>The spokesperson said that &#34;aggregate sales quotas for AI products have not been lowered.&#34;</p><p>The company&#39;s Foundry platform, which allows users to develop and deploy AI agents and applications, is reportedly one of the offerings for which sales quotas were lowered. Cutting targets is uncommon for the tech giant and could reflect a resistance to new products, The Information said.</p><p>However, Foundry only makes up &#34;a tiny part of Azure,&#34; Materne said. While cuts aren&#39;t a great look for the company, they &#34;might speak more to the fact that both <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNOW\">Snowflake</a> and Databricks are formidable competitors/partners in this area and there could be a view that it&#39;s better to partner [versus] compete at certain levels of the stack,&#34; he said.</p><p>Recapping a recent meeting with the company, Materne said Microsoft &#34;could not be more direct that demand is strong, especially for Azure,&#34; which is seeing demand overtake capacity.</p><p>Microsoft&#39;s stock fell as much as 3% on Wednesday morning and ended the day off 2.5%.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/efda1495c6b1c8892212f7b809114d54\" tg-width=\"903\" tg-height=\"822\"/></p><p>Taken together with recent market jitters over OpenAI&#39;s dominance after the release of Google&#39;s <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">$(GOOG)$</a> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOGL\">$(GOOGL)$</a> Gemini 3, Materne said he isn&#39;t surprised that the report sent Microsoft&#39;s stock down.</p><p>&#34;We would be using the weakness as a buying opportunity into 2026,&#34; Materne said.</p><p>Klein, meanwhile, said the report &#34;is backward looking to June [versus] forward looking.&#34;</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"MSFT":"微软"},"source_url":"https://dowjonesnews.com/newdjn/logon.aspx?AL=N","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2588078687","content_text":"The latest source of Wall Street debate is a report saying that Microsoft lowered sales-growth targets for some artificial-intelligence software.To investors who have been increasingly concerned about a bubble, the report came as validation that AI isn't so easy to monetize. But some analysts on Wall Street said investors shouldn't be worried.At the center of the debate is a report from The Information, which said Microsoft $(MSFT)$ had lowered quotas across a number of divisions after salespeople missed targets for certain AI products in the fiscal year that ended in June. The story cited people in Microsoft's Azure cloud unit.Evercore ISI analyst Kirk Materne wrote in a Wednesday note that it is still early in the current fiscal year, and that \"the key with quota setting is not to make it too hard or too easy to clear the bar.\"Therefore, Materne said he doesn't \"view quota adjustments, especially at the product level, as a huge surprise\" at this point in the year.Mizuho desk-based analyst Jordan Klein thinks Microsoft's move wouldn't necessarily have been a sudden decision, meaning the company's guidance for Azure growth likely already factored in the lowered quotas when the company reported earnings results in October.\"We do not even know how high the prior sales quotas were\" between last year and this year, Klein said. \"Maybe they were artificially too high and are much more realistic and still pretty good.\"A Microsoft spokesperson said in a statement shared with MarketWatch that the article \"inaccurately combines the concepts of growth and sales quotas, which shows their lack of understanding of the way a sales organization works and is compensated.\"The spokesperson said that \"aggregate sales quotas for AI products have not been lowered.\"The company's Foundry platform, which allows users to develop and deploy AI agents and applications, is reportedly one of the offerings for which sales quotas were lowered. Cutting targets is uncommon for the tech giant and could reflect a resistance to new products, The Information said.However, Foundry only makes up \"a tiny part of Azure,\" Materne said. While cuts aren't a great look for the company, they \"might speak more to the fact that both Snowflake and Databricks are formidable competitors/partners in this area and there could be a view that it's better to partner [versus] compete at certain levels of the stack,\" he said.Recapping a recent meeting with the company, Materne said Microsoft \"could not be more direct that demand is strong, especially for Azure,\" which is seeing demand overtake capacity.Microsoft's stock fell as much as 3% on Wednesday morning and ended the day off 2.5%.Taken together with recent market jitters over OpenAI's dominance after the release of Google's $(GOOG)$ $(GOOGL)$ Gemini 3, Materne said he isn't surprised that the report sent Microsoft's stock down.\"We would be using the weakness as a buying opportunity into 2026,\" Materne said.Klein, meanwhile, said the report \"is backward looking to June [versus] forward looking.\"","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"MSFT":1.5}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1423,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":503924753331056,"gmtCreate":1764051704787,"gmtModify":1764051708456,"author":{"id":"3574807189087941","authorId":"3574807189087941","name":"Icywinddale","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/3bd2fbf9d90e26b2f600b2c5d7c54244","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574807189087941","idStr":"3574807189087941"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Another drama","listText":"Another drama","text":"Another drama","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/503924753331056","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1499,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":498952909767392,"gmtCreate":1762839657781,"gmtModify":1762840454453,"author":{"id":"3574807189087941","authorId":"3574807189087941","name":"Icywinddale","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/3bd2fbf9d90e26b2f600b2c5d7c54244","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574807189087941","idStr":"3574807189087941"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"😄this sucker short nvda and pLTR, He feel great now?","listText":"😄this sucker short nvda and pLTR, He feel great now?","text":"😄this sucker short nvda and pLTR, He feel great now?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/498952909767392","repostId":"1171986730","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1171986730","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1762831311,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1171986730?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2025-11-11 11:21","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Michael Burry Warns of $176 Billion Depreciation Understatement by Tech Giants","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1171986730","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Michael Burry, the investor known for predicting the 2008 housing crisis, has raised concerns about major tech companies potentially understating depreciation by extending the useful life of...","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Michael Burry, the investor known for predicting the 2008 housing crisis, has raised concerns about major tech companies potentially understating depreciation by extending the useful life of computing assets.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">In a recent social media post, Burry claimed that &#34;understating depreciation by extending useful life of assets artificially boosts earnings,&#34; calling it &#34;one of the more common frauds of the modern era.&#34;</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">The investor specifically targeted tech companies purchasing  <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">NVIDIA</a>  chips and servers, arguing they should not be extending the useful lives of computing equipment that typically has a 2-3 year product cycle. According to Burry, &#34;hyperscalers&#34; are doing exactly this.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Burry estimates these companies will understate depreciation by $176 billion between 2026-2028. By 2028, he projects  <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ORCL\">Oracle</a>  will overstate earnings by 26.9% and  <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/META\">Meta Platforms, Inc.</a> by 20.8%. He promised more details would be coming on November 25.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">The &#34;Big Short&#34; investor has been increasingly vocal on social media platform X since October 30, when he posted a cryptic message about bubbles and market participation. That post came just days before he disclosed owning put options on Palantir and NVIDIA.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Burry is not alone in raising these concerns. Other short sellers, including Jim Chanos, have also highlighted issues with depreciation practices, noting that companies were using innovative financing to remove equipment from their balance sheets.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Michael Burry Warns of $176 Billion Depreciation Understatement by Tech Giants</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMichael Burry Warns of $176 Billion Depreciation Understatement by Tech Giants\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2025-11-11 11:21</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>Michael Burry, the investor known for predicting the 2008 housing crisis, has raised concerns about major tech companies potentially understating depreciation by extending the useful life of computing assets.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">In a recent social media post, Burry claimed that &#34;understating depreciation by extending useful life of assets artificially boosts earnings,&#34; calling it &#34;one of the more common frauds of the modern era.&#34;</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">The investor specifically targeted tech companies purchasing  <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">NVIDIA</a>  chips and servers, arguing they should not be extending the useful lives of computing equipment that typically has a 2-3 year product cycle. According to Burry, &#34;hyperscalers&#34; are doing exactly this.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Burry estimates these companies will understate depreciation by $176 billion between 2026-2028. By 2028, he projects  <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ORCL\">Oracle</a>  will overstate earnings by 26.9% and  <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/META\">Meta Platforms, Inc.</a> by 20.8%. He promised more details would be coming on November 25.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">The &#34;Big Short&#34; investor has been increasingly vocal on social media platform X since October 30, when he posted a cryptic message about bubbles and market participation. That post came just days before he disclosed owning put options on Palantir and NVIDIA.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Burry is not alone in raising these concerns. Other short sellers, including Jim Chanos, have also highlighted issues with depreciation practices, noting that companies were using innovative financing to remove equipment from their balance sheets.</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"META":"Meta Platforms, Inc.","NVDA":"英伟达"},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1171986730","content_text":"Michael Burry, the investor known for predicting the 2008 housing crisis, has raised concerns about major tech companies potentially understating depreciation by extending the useful life of computing assets.In a recent social media post, Burry claimed that \"understating depreciation by extending useful life of assets artificially boosts earnings,\" calling it \"one of the more common frauds of the modern era.\"The investor specifically targeted tech companies purchasing  NVIDIA  chips and servers, arguing they should not be extending the useful lives of computing equipment that typically has a 2-3 year product cycle. According to Burry, \"hyperscalers\" are doing exactly this.Burry estimates these companies will understate depreciation by $176 billion between 2026-2028. By 2028, he projects  Oracle  will overstate earnings by 26.9% and  Meta Platforms, Inc. by 20.8%. He promised more details would be coming on November 25.The \"Big Short\" investor has been increasingly vocal on social media platform X since October 30, when he posted a cryptic message about bubbles and market participation. That post came just days before he disclosed owning put options on Palantir and NVIDIA.Burry is not alone in raising these concerns. Other short sellers, including Jim Chanos, have also highlighted issues with depreciation practices, noting that companies were using innovative financing to remove equipment from their balance sheets.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NVDA":2,"META":2}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2346,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":493728671039832,"gmtCreate":1761561886297,"gmtModify":1761561890136,"author":{"id":"3574807189087941","authorId":"3574807189087941","name":"Icywinddale","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/3bd2fbf9d90e26b2f600b2c5d7c54244","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574807189087941","idStr":"3574807189087941"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Your AI can't summarize?","listText":"Your AI can't summarize?","text":"Your AI can't summarize?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/493728671039832","repostId":"2578361493","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2578361493","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Dow Jones publishes the world’s most trusted business news and financial information in a variety of media.","home_visible":0,"media_name":"Dow Jones","id":"106","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99"},"pubTimestamp":1761561233,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2578361493?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2025-10-27 18:33","market":"sg","language":"en","title":"This Hedge-Fund Giant Studied Over 30 Bubbles - And Came Away More Convinced That The AI Trade Is The Right One","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2578361493","media":"Dow Jones","summary":"Philippe Laffont, founder of Coatue Management, L.L.C., and his wife Ana Laffont walk to a morning session at the Allen & Company Sun Valley Conference on July 10, 2025 in Sun Valley, Idaho. Laffont's Coatue is still heavily invested in AI stocks, despite bubble warnings.Hedge-fund giant Coatue has heard all the bubble arguments - and still comes away convinced that the right move is betting on artificial intelligence and its potential.In a presentation dated Oct. 16, but circulated widely on the internet this weekend, the $54 billion in assets fund firm led by Philippe Laffont said it studied over 30 bubbles dating back 400 years and grouped them by more than 30 characteristics, ranging from adoption to leverage to concentration.So it gives a two-thirds probability to the idea of AI abundance - that AI increases productivity and GDP, while inflation is contained and tech continues to lead - and a one-third chance to the AI bubble bursting, causing the stock market to crash and the eco","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Hedge-fund giant Coatue has heard all the bubble arguments - and still comes away convinced that the right move is betting on artificial intelligence and its potential.</p><p>In a presentation dated Oct. 16, but circulated widely on the internet this weekend, the $54 billion in assets fund firm led by Philippe Laffont said it studied over 30 bubbles dating back 400 years and grouped them by more than 30 characteristics, ranging from adoption to leverage to concentration.</p><p>Coatue conceded a few points - AI leaders are too big, capex is higher than dot-com bubble, adoption is slowing, data-center growth is declining and vendor financing is raising questions.</p><p>But it pushed back on bubble fears. AI adoption, so far, is faster than the internet or personal computer did when they were released; capex, while growing, is funded with operating cash flow; market concentration is not necessarily a negative indicator; price-to-earnings multiples are nowhere near dot-com levels and other technologies, like cloud computing, took years to turn positive on a returned-on-invested-capital basis.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/48e8f7a45fd19ffb060163e751e1f585\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"391\"/></p><p>Also it&#39;s hard to measure the impact of AI because while some of the impact, like lower headcount, is direct, other benefits like more productive workers are harder to quantify.</p><p>The AI boom, for example, is boosting e-commerce and ads, Coatue said, citing earnings calls from <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon</a> (AMZN) and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SHOP\">Shopify</a> (SHOP).</p><p>Outside of tech, firms as diverse as trucking company C.H. Robinson <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CHRW\">$(CHRW)$</a> and Rocket Cos. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RKT\">$(RKT)$</a> are touting AI&#39;s benefits.</p><p>Coatue says profits will support the investment over five to 10 years.</p><p>So it gives a two-thirds probability to the idea of AI abundance - that AI increases productivity and GDP, while inflation is contained and tech continues to lead - and a one-third chance to the AI bubble bursting, causing the stock market to crash and the economy to fall into a recession.</p><p>Other than remaining bullish of AI, the presentation didn&#39;t indicate its current positioning.</p><p>Its 13-F filing covering the second quarter does show a heavily AI-tilted portfolio, with top investments being <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CRWV\">CoreWeave</a> (CRWV), <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/META\">Meta Platforms</a> (META), Amazon.com, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GEV\">GE Vernova</a> (GEV) and Microsoft <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">$(MSFT)$</a>, with the firm also having 5% of its holdings in <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CEG\">Constellation</a> Energy (CEG), <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSMWF\">Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing</a> Co. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSM\">$(TSM)$</a> and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">Nvidia</a> (NVDA).</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>This Hedge-Fund Giant Studied Over 30 Bubbles - And Came Away More Convinced That The AI Trade Is The Right One</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThis Hedge-Fund Giant Studied Over 30 Bubbles - And Came Away More Convinced That The AI Trade Is The Right One\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Dow Jones </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2025-10-27 18:33</p>\n</div>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>Hedge-fund giant Coatue has heard all the bubble arguments - and still comes away convinced that the right move is betting on artificial intelligence and its potential.</p><p>In a presentation dated Oct. 16, but circulated widely on the internet this weekend, the $54 billion in assets fund firm led by Philippe Laffont said it studied over 30 bubbles dating back 400 years and grouped them by more than 30 characteristics, ranging from adoption to leverage to concentration.</p><p>Coatue conceded a few points - AI leaders are too big, capex is higher than dot-com bubble, adoption is slowing, data-center growth is declining and vendor financing is raising questions.</p><p>But it pushed back on bubble fears. AI adoption, so far, is faster than the internet or personal computer did when they were released; capex, while growing, is funded with operating cash flow; market concentration is not necessarily a negative indicator; price-to-earnings multiples are nowhere near dot-com levels and other technologies, like cloud computing, took years to turn positive on a returned-on-invested-capital basis.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/48e8f7a45fd19ffb060163e751e1f585\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"391\"/></p><p>Also it&#39;s hard to measure the impact of AI because while some of the impact, like lower headcount, is direct, other benefits like more productive workers are harder to quantify.</p><p>The AI boom, for example, is boosting e-commerce and ads, Coatue said, citing earnings calls from <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon</a> (AMZN) and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SHOP\">Shopify</a> (SHOP).</p><p>Outside of tech, firms as diverse as trucking company C.H. Robinson <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CHRW\">$(CHRW)$</a> and Rocket Cos. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RKT\">$(RKT)$</a> are touting AI&#39;s benefits.</p><p>Coatue says profits will support the investment over five to 10 years.</p><p>So it gives a two-thirds probability to the idea of AI abundance - that AI increases productivity and GDP, while inflation is contained and tech continues to lead - and a one-third chance to the AI bubble bursting, causing the stock market to crash and the economy to fall into a recession.</p><p>Other than remaining bullish of AI, the presentation didn&#39;t indicate its current positioning.</p><p>Its 13-F filing covering the second quarter does show a heavily AI-tilted portfolio, with top investments being <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CRWV\">CoreWeave</a> (CRWV), <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/META\">Meta Platforms</a> (META), Amazon.com, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GEV\">GE Vernova</a> (GEV) and Microsoft <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">$(MSFT)$</a>, with the firm also having 5% of its holdings in <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CEG\">Constellation</a> Energy (CEG), <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSMWF\">Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing</a> Co. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSM\">$(TSM)$</a> and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">Nvidia</a> (NVDA).</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"LU0289960550.SGD":"AB FCP I - GLOBAL EQUITY BLEND PORTFOLIO 'A' (SGD) ACC","PLTR":"Palantir Technologies Inc.","SGXZ31699556.SGD":"UGDP UNITED GLOBAL QUALITY GROWTH \"C\" (SGDHDG) ACC","LU1043141123.HKD":"NINETY ONE GSF GLOBAL FRANCHISE \"A\" (HKD) INC 2","IE00B19Z9505.USD":"美盛-美国大盘成长股A Acc","MSFT":"微软","LU0264606111.USD":"Janus Henderson Horizon Asian Dividend Income A2 USD","NVDA":"英伟达","LU1868838027.USD":"CT (LUX) I GLOBAL EMERGING MARKET EQUITIES \"8\" (USD) ACC","LU0965508806.USD":"AB LOW VOLATILITY EQUITY PORTFOLIO \"AD\" (USD) INC","LU0203201768.USD":"AB SICAV I - ALL MARKET INCOME PORTFOLIO \"AX\" (USD) INC","LU2023250843.SGD":"Allianz Thematica Cl AT Acc H2-SGD","LU0234570918.USD":"高盛全球核心股票组合Acc Close","LU2357305700.SGD":"Allianz Global Artificial Intelligence ET H2-SGD","LU1116320737.USD":"BGF SYSTEMATIC GLOBAL ENHANCED EQUITY YIELD \"A6\" (USD) INC","LU1323610961.USD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY SICAV - LONG TERM THEMES (USD) \"P\" (USD) ACC","LU1582987324.SGD":"M&G (LUX) INCOME ALLOCATION \"A-H\" (SGDHDG) ACC","IE00B19Z3581.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - Value A Acc USD","GOOG":"谷歌","LU2125154778.USD":"ALLSPRING GLOBAL EQUITY ENHANCED INCOME \"A\" (USD) INC","LU2211815571.USD":"ALLIANZ POSITIVE CHANGE \"AT\" (USD) ACC","SGXZ51526630.SGD":"大华环球创新基金A Acc SGD","LU0980610538.SGD":"Natixis Harris Associates US Equity RA SGD-H","LU0784385170.HKD":"BGF GLOBAL MULTI ASSET INCOME \"A6\" (HKDHGD) INC","BK4116":"互联网服务与基础架构","LU1923622291.USD":"Natixis Thematics Safety R/A USD"},"source_url":"https://dowjonesnews.com/newdjn/logon.aspx?AL=N","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2578361493","content_text":"Hedge-fund giant Coatue has heard all the bubble arguments - and still comes away convinced that the right move is betting on artificial intelligence and its potential.In a presentation dated Oct. 16, but circulated widely on the internet this weekend, the $54 billion in assets fund firm led by Philippe Laffont said it studied over 30 bubbles dating back 400 years and grouped them by more than 30 characteristics, ranging from adoption to leverage to concentration.Coatue conceded a few points - AI leaders are too big, capex is higher than dot-com bubble, adoption is slowing, data-center growth is declining and vendor financing is raising questions.But it pushed back on bubble fears. AI adoption, so far, is faster than the internet or personal computer did when they were released; capex, while growing, is funded with operating cash flow; market concentration is not necessarily a negative indicator; price-to-earnings multiples are nowhere near dot-com levels and other technologies, like cloud computing, took years to turn positive on a returned-on-invested-capital basis.Also it's hard to measure the impact of AI because while some of the impact, like lower headcount, is direct, other benefits like more productive workers are harder to quantify.The AI boom, for example, is boosting e-commerce and ads, Coatue said, citing earnings calls from Amazon (AMZN) and Shopify (SHOP).Outside of tech, firms as diverse as trucking company C.H. Robinson $(CHRW)$ and Rocket Cos. $(RKT)$ are touting AI's benefits.Coatue says profits will support the investment over five to 10 years.So it gives a two-thirds probability to the idea of AI abundance - that AI increases productivity and GDP, while inflation is contained and tech continues to lead - and a one-third chance to the AI bubble bursting, causing the stock market to crash and the economy to fall into a recession.Other than remaining bullish of AI, the presentation didn't indicate its current positioning.Its 13-F filing covering the second quarter does show a heavily AI-tilted portfolio, with top investments being CoreWeave (CRWV), Meta Platforms (META), Amazon.com, GE Vernova (GEV) and Microsoft $(MSFT)$, with the firm also having 5% of its holdings in Constellation Energy (CEG), Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. $(TSM)$ and Nvidia (NVDA).","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NVDA":1.1,"PLTR":1.1,"GOOG":1.1,"MSFT":1.1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1410,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":469264182571040,"gmtCreate":1755604530560,"gmtModify":1755604534446,"author":{"id":"3574807189087941","authorId":"3574807189087941","name":"Icywinddale","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/3bd2fbf9d90e26b2f600b2c5d7c54244","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574807189087941","idStr":"3574807189087941"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Pinehead","listText":"Pinehead","text":"Pinehead","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/469264182571040","repostId":"2560135532","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2560135532","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Dow Jones publishes the world’s most trusted business news and financial information in a variety of media.","home_visible":0,"media_name":"Dow Jones","id":"106","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99"},"pubTimestamp":1755610501,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2560135532?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2025-08-19 21:35","market":"sh","language":"en","title":"Palantir's Stock Slides 4%. Here's Why This Short-Seller Thinks Even a $40 Price Tag Is \"Generous\"","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2560135532","media":"Dow Jones","summary":"Andrew Left argues that investors have overhyped Palantir stock, and its actual valuation pales in comparison to a true AI leader like OpenAI$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$ has been one of the...","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Palantir stook fell another 4% on Tuesday. Shares have retreated about 12% from its high.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/2f9ef17bf9225bafc68cca12dc6c58ac\" tg-width=\"819\" tg-height=\"618\"/></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PLTR\">Palantir Technologies Inc.</a> has been one of the biggest artificial-intelligence winners in 2025, but there&#39;s reason to believe investors may have gotten way ahead of themselves.</p><p>That&#39;s according to the famed short-seller and Citron Research founder Andrew Left, who said on Fox Business last Wednesday that Palantir&#39;s stock was grossly overvalued.</p><p>Left had fresh criticism for the stock on Monday, calling Palantir &#34;a company now detached from fundamentals and analysis.&#34;</p><p>Palantir&#39;s stock has run up an impressive 130% so far this year, to make it by far the S&amp;P 500 index&#39;s SPX best 2025 performer. The lofty price tag comes with a eye-popping price-to-earnings ratio of 588x, based on the past 12 months of earnings, according to FactSet data, which compares with a P/E ratio of 58x for AI leader <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">Nvidia</a> Corp. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BLSH\">Bullish</a> investors have defended the valuation by pointing to Palantir&#39;s exclusive government contracts and its Artificial Intelligence Platform product offering.</p><p>In a Monday note, Left argued that if Palantir traded at similar valuations to AI-industry leader and privately held OpenAI, the stock would see a 77% decline from current levels.</p><p>OpenAI is preparing a secondary sale of $6 billion in stock that would give it a $500 billion valuation, CNBC confirmed last Friday. Bloomberg has also reported that OpenAI expects to achieve $29.4 billion in revenue in 2026. That means the ChatGPT creator is valued at roughly 17 times forward sales. Meanwhile, Palantir is expected to do $5.6 billion in revenue in 2026, according to FactSet. Applying the same multiple to Palantir&#39;s sales metric would yield a share price of $40.</p><p>Even a $40 share price would be &#34;generous,&#34; according to Left, as &#34;Palantir would be fortunate to achieve the same valuation multiple as OpenAI.&#34;</p><p>&#34;It should be noted that even at a 17x sales multiple, OpenAI has the highest multiple of any scaled [software-as-a-service] stock in the world, and that number in itself is extreme. This means that at $40, [Palantir] would still be expensive,&#34; Left said.</p><p>Left certainly doesn&#39;t believe Palantir is on par with OpenAI. In his view, Palantir&#39;s contract-based revenue is lumpier and more difficult to scale than OpenAI&#39;s widespread subscription model. Palantir also faces competition from other software companies such as Microsoft Corp. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">$(MSFT)$</a> and Databricks.</p><p>Left acknowledged that the stock could certainly continue to climb in the coming months. After all, markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent. But if Left&#39;s predictions are correction, Palantir&#39;s stock could have a long way to plummet.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Palantir's Stock Slides 4%. Here's Why This Short-Seller Thinks Even a $40 Price Tag Is \"Generous\"</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPalantir's Stock Slides 4%. Here's Why This Short-Seller Thinks Even a $40 Price Tag Is \"Generous\"\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Dow Jones </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2025-08-19 21:35</p>\n</div>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>Palantir stook fell another 4% on Tuesday. Shares have retreated about 12% from its high.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/2f9ef17bf9225bafc68cca12dc6c58ac\" tg-width=\"819\" tg-height=\"618\"/></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PLTR\">Palantir Technologies Inc.</a> has been one of the biggest artificial-intelligence winners in 2025, but there&#39;s reason to believe investors may have gotten way ahead of themselves.</p><p>That&#39;s according to the famed short-seller and Citron Research founder Andrew Left, who said on Fox Business last Wednesday that Palantir&#39;s stock was grossly overvalued.</p><p>Left had fresh criticism for the stock on Monday, calling Palantir &#34;a company now detached from fundamentals and analysis.&#34;</p><p>Palantir&#39;s stock has run up an impressive 130% so far this year, to make it by far the S&amp;P 500 index&#39;s SPX best 2025 performer. The lofty price tag comes with a eye-popping price-to-earnings ratio of 588x, based on the past 12 months of earnings, according to FactSet data, which compares with a P/E ratio of 58x for AI leader <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">Nvidia</a> Corp. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BLSH\">Bullish</a> investors have defended the valuation by pointing to Palantir&#39;s exclusive government contracts and its Artificial Intelligence Platform product offering.</p><p>In a Monday note, Left argued that if Palantir traded at similar valuations to AI-industry leader and privately held OpenAI, the stock would see a 77% decline from current levels.</p><p>OpenAI is preparing a secondary sale of $6 billion in stock that would give it a $500 billion valuation, CNBC confirmed last Friday. Bloomberg has also reported that OpenAI expects to achieve $29.4 billion in revenue in 2026. That means the ChatGPT creator is valued at roughly 17 times forward sales. Meanwhile, Palantir is expected to do $5.6 billion in revenue in 2026, according to FactSet. Applying the same multiple to Palantir&#39;s sales metric would yield a share price of $40.</p><p>Even a $40 share price would be &#34;generous,&#34; according to Left, as &#34;Palantir would be fortunate to achieve the same valuation multiple as OpenAI.&#34;</p><p>&#34;It should be noted that even at a 17x sales multiple, OpenAI has the highest multiple of any scaled [software-as-a-service] stock in the world, and that number in itself is extreme. This means that at $40, [Palantir] would still be expensive,&#34; Left said.</p><p>Left certainly doesn&#39;t believe Palantir is on par with OpenAI. In his view, Palantir&#39;s contract-based revenue is lumpier and more difficult to scale than OpenAI&#39;s widespread subscription model. Palantir also faces competition from other software companies such as Microsoft Corp. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">$(MSFT)$</a> and Databricks.</p><p>Left acknowledged that the stock could certainly continue to climb in the coming months. After all, markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent. But if Left&#39;s predictions are correction, Palantir&#39;s stock could have a long way to plummet.</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"LU2362541273.HKD":"WELLINGTON NEXT GENERATION GLOBAL EQUITY \"A\" (HKD) ACC","LU0077335932.USD":"FIDELITY AMERICAN GROWTH \"A\" INC","LU0784383803.USD":"BGF GLOBAL MULTI-ASSET INCOME FUND \"A\" (USD) INC A","LU0724617625.USD":"BGF GLOBAL ALLOCATION \"A4\" (USD) INC","LU2237443465.HKD":"abrdn SICAV I -  GLOBAL DYNAMIC DIVIDEND \"A\" (HKD) INC","LU1814569148.SGD":"WELLINGTON GLOBAL QUALITY GROWTH \"D\" (SGDHDG) ACC","LU2023250330.USD":"ALLIANZ INCOME AND GROWTH \"AMG\" (USD) INC","LU1934455277.USD":"AB SICAV I LOW VOLATILITY TOTAL RETURN EQUITY PORT \"AD\" (USD) INC","IE00B3M56506.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN EMERGING MARKETS EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU1720051108.HKD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE \"AT\" (HKD) ACC","LU1582986359.USD":"M&G (LUX) INCOME ALLOCATION \"A-H\" (USDHDG) ACC","IE00BJLML261.HKD":"HSBC GLOBAL EQUITY INDEX \"HCH\" (HKD) ACC","LU1917777945.USD":"安联专题基金Cl AT Acc","LU0345774631.USD":"NINETY ONE GSF AMERICAN FRANCHISE \"A\" (USD) INC","LU0234570918.USD":"高盛全球核心股票组合Acc Close","LU1323610961.USD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY SICAV - LONG TERM THEMES (USD) \"P\" (USD) ACC","LU0894485498.HKD":"SCHRODER ISF GLOBAL MULTI-ASSET INCOME \"A\" (HKD) ACC","LU0095938881.EUR":"JPMorgan Investment Funds - Global Macro Opportunities A (acc) EUR","LU1934455863.HKD":"AB SICAV I LOW VOLATILITY TOTAL RETURN EQUITY PORT \"A\" (HKD) ACC","LU1815333072.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) GLOBAL FOCUS \"AUP\" (USD) INC","LU2381873111.SGD":"BGF SYSTEMATIC GLOBAL EQUITY HIGH INCOME \"A6\" (SGDHDG) INC","IE00B1XK9C88.USD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU1670711040.USD":"M&G (LUX) GLOBAL DIVIDEND \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU2168564065.EUR":"AZ ALLOCATION - TREND \"AAZ\" (EUR) ACC","IE0003U64NQ7.SGD":"PIMCO BALANCED INCOME AND GROWTH \"M\" (SGDHDG) ACC","LU2413666699.HKD":"BNP PARIBAS GLOBAL ENVIRONMENT \"CRH\" (HKDHDG) INC","LU1935042215.USD":"MANULIFE GF GLOBAL MULTI-ASSET DIVERSIFIED INCOME  \"AA\" (USD) INC A","LU1261432733.SGD":"Fidelity World A-ACC-SGD","IE00B894F039.SGD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - US Aggressive Growth A Acc SGD-H","LU2272731865.HKD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL INTELLIGENT CITIES INCOME \"AM\" (HKD) INC","LU2764263039.SGD":"BGF GLOBAL UNCONSTRAINED EQUITY \"A2\" (SGDHDG) ACC","LU1582986433.USD":"M&G (LUX) INCOME ALLOCATION \"A-H\" (USDHDG) INC","HK0000306685.HKD":"TAIKANG KAITAI CHINA NEW OPPORTUNITIES FUND \"A\" (HKD) INC","PLTR":"Palantir Technologies Inc."},"source_url":"https://dowjonesnews.com/newdjn/logon.aspx?AL=N","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2560135532","content_text":"Palantir stook fell another 4% on Tuesday. Shares have retreated about 12% from its high.Palantir Technologies Inc. has been one of the biggest artificial-intelligence winners in 2025, but there's reason to believe investors may have gotten way ahead of themselves.That's according to the famed short-seller and Citron Research founder Andrew Left, who said on Fox Business last Wednesday that Palantir's stock was grossly overvalued.Left had fresh criticism for the stock on Monday, calling Palantir \"a company now detached from fundamentals and analysis.\"Palantir's stock has run up an impressive 130% so far this year, to make it by far the S&P 500 index's SPX best 2025 performer. The lofty price tag comes with a eye-popping price-to-earnings ratio of 588x, based on the past 12 months of earnings, according to FactSet data, which compares with a P/E ratio of 58x for AI leader Nvidia Corp. Bullish investors have defended the valuation by pointing to Palantir's exclusive government contracts and its Artificial Intelligence Platform product offering.In a Monday note, Left argued that if Palantir traded at similar valuations to AI-industry leader and privately held OpenAI, the stock would see a 77% decline from current levels.OpenAI is preparing a secondary sale of $6 billion in stock that would give it a $500 billion valuation, CNBC confirmed last Friday. Bloomberg has also reported that OpenAI expects to achieve $29.4 billion in revenue in 2026. That means the ChatGPT creator is valued at roughly 17 times forward sales. Meanwhile, Palantir is expected to do $5.6 billion in revenue in 2026, according to FactSet. Applying the same multiple to Palantir's sales metric would yield a share price of $40.Even a $40 share price would be \"generous,\" according to Left, as \"Palantir would be fortunate to achieve the same valuation multiple as OpenAI.\"\"It should be noted that even at a 17x sales multiple, OpenAI has the highest multiple of any scaled [software-as-a-service] stock in the world, and that number in itself is extreme. This means that at $40, [Palantir] would still be expensive,\" Left said.Left certainly doesn't believe Palantir is on par with OpenAI. In his view, Palantir's contract-based revenue is lumpier and more difficult to scale than OpenAI's widespread subscription model. Palantir also faces competition from other software companies such as Microsoft Corp. $(MSFT)$ and Databricks.Left acknowledged that the stock could certainly continue to climb in the coming months. After all, markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent. But if Left's predictions are correction, Palantir's stock could have a long way to plummet.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"PLTR":1.1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2097,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":466650324324408,"gmtCreate":1754965957279,"gmtModify":1754969118934,"author":{"id":"3574807189087941","authorId":"3574807189087941","name":"Icywinddale","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/3bd2fbf9d90e26b2f600b2c5d7c54244","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574807189087941","idStr":"3574807189087941"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Musk is a jerk. He had lost his mind.","listText":"Musk is a jerk. He had lost his mind.","text":"Musk is a jerk. He had lost his mind.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/466650324324408","repostId":"2558691235","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2558691235","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Reuters.com brings you the latest news from around the world, covering breaking news in markets, business, politics, entertainment and technology","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Reuters","id":"1032215980","head_image":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/4567337cbdf294b657b1fa87c5488b48"},"pubTimestamp":1754962385,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2558691235?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2025-08-12 09:33","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Musk Accuses Apple of Antitrust Violation, Says xAI Will Take Legal Action","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2558691235","media":"Reuters","summary":"Elon Musk said on Monday Apple is engaging in antitrust violations by allegedly making it impossible for any artificial intelligence company other than OpenAI to reach the No. 1 spot in its App Store...","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Elon Musk said on Monday Apple is engaging in antitrust violations by allegedly making it impossible for any artificial intelligence company other than OpenAI to reach the No. 1 spot in its App Store rankings, calling it an &#34;unequivocal antitrust violation.&#34;</p><p>&#34;xAI will take immediate legal action,&#34; Musk said in an X post.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Musk Accuses Apple of Antitrust Violation, Says xAI Will Take Legal Action</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMusk Accuses Apple of Antitrust Violation, Says xAI Will Take Legal Action\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1032215980\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/4567337cbdf294b657b1fa87c5488b48);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Reuters </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2025-08-12 09:33</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>Elon Musk said on Monday Apple is engaging in antitrust violations by allegedly making it impossible for any artificial intelligence company other than OpenAI to reach the No. 1 spot in its App Store rankings, calling it an &#34;unequivocal antitrust violation.&#34;</p><p>&#34;xAI will take immediate legal action,&#34; Musk said in an X post.</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"LU1791710582.SGD":"Fidelity Global Demographics A-ACC-SGD (SGD/USD hedged)","SG9999002224.SGD":"Allianz Global High Payout SGD","LU1267930490.SGD":"TEMPLETON GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME \"AS\" (SGD) INC A","LU0353189763.USD":"ALLSPRING  US ALL CAP GROWTH FUND \"I\" (USD) ACC","LU2456880835.USD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL INCOME \"AT\" (USD) ACC","LU0661504455.SGD":"Blackrock Global Equity Income A5 SGD-H","LU1721428933.USD":"法巴全球经典环境基金RH MD Dis","LU1582987324.SGD":"M&G (LUX) INCOME ALLOCATION \"A-H\" (SGDHDG) ACC","LU1868836591.USD":"CT (LUX) I AMERICAN \"1U\"(USD) ACC","IE00BK4W5L77.USD":"HSBC GLOBAL FUNDS ICAV US EQUITY INDEX \"HC\" (USD) ACC","LU2133065610.SGD":"JPMorgan Investment Funds - Global Dividend A (mth) SGD","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","LU1815333072.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) GLOBAL FOCUS \"AUP\" (USD) INC","LU0316494557.USD":"FRANKLIN GLOBAL FUNDAMENTAL STRATEGIES \"A\" ACC","IE00BK4W5M84.HKD":"HSBC GLOBAL FUNDS ICAV US EQUITY INDEX \"HC\" (HKD) ACC","LU2361044865.SGD":"WELLINGTON US QUALITY GROWTH \"A\" (SGDHDG) ACC","LU0466842654.USD":"HSBC ISLAMIC GLOBAL EQUITY INDEX \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0689472784.USD":"安联收益及增长基金Cl AM AT Acc","IE00B4JS1V06.HKD":"JANUS HENDERSON BALANCED \"A2\" (HKD) ACC","LU2860962120.EUR":"CPR INVEST - ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE \"A2\" (EUR) ACC A","LU0784384876.USD":"Blackrock Global Multi-Asset Income A6 USD","LU0128525929.USD":"TEMPLETON GLOBAL \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0276348264.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) GLOBAL DYNAMIC REAL RETURN\"AUP\" (USD) INC","LU2592432038.USD":"WELLINGTON MULTI-ASSET HIGH INCOME \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4538":"云计算","IE0034235295.USD":"PINEBRIDGE GLOBAL DYNAMIC ASSET ALLOCATION \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE00BFSS8Q28.SGD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Inc SGD-H","LU0757359954.USD":"SCHRODER ISF GLOBAL MULTI-ASSET INCOME \"A\" (USD) INC MF","LU2063271972.USD":"富兰克林创新领域基金","LU0642271901.SGD":"Janus Henderson Horizon Global Technology Leaders A2 SGD-H","LU2023251221.USD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL SUSTAINABILITY \"AM\" (USD) INC","LU2750360997.AUD":"INVESCO GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME ADVANTAGE \"A\" (AUDHDG) INC","IE00BKVL7J92.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - US Equity Sustainability Leaders A Acc USD","LU1983260115.SGD":"Janus Henderson Horizon Global Sustainable Equity A2 SGD-H","LU2097829019.USD":"AZ EQUITY - BORLETTI GLOBAL LIFESTYLE \"AI\" (USD) ACC","LU0266013472.USD":"AXA WF - Framlington Longevity Economy A Cap USD","LU0171293334.USD":"贝莱德英国基金A2","BK4598":"佩洛西持仓","LU1232071149.USD":"AZ FUND 1 GLOBAL GROWTH SELECTOR \"AAZ\" (USDHDG) ACC","SG9999002232.USD":"Allianz Global High Payout USD","LU2746668974.SGD":"MANULIFE DYNAMIC LEADERS \"AA\" (SGDHDG) ACC","LU1674673691.USD":"HSBC GIF GLOBAL LOWER CARBON EQUITY \"AD\" (USD) INC","LU2065170008.USD":"M&G (LUX) GLOBAL MAXIMA \"A\" (USD) INC","LU1917777945.USD":"安联专题基金Cl AT Acc","BK4532":"文艺复兴科技持仓","AAPL":"苹果","LU0238689110.USD":"贝莱德环球动力股票基金","LU1548497426.USD":"安联环球人工智能AT Acc"},"source_url":"https://api.refinitiv.com/data/news/v1/stories/urn:newsml:reuters.com:20250812:nL4N3U402G:1","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2558691235","content_text":"Elon Musk said on Monday Apple is engaging in antitrust violations by allegedly making it impossible for any artificial intelligence company other than OpenAI to reach the No. 1 spot in its App Store rankings, calling it an \"unequivocal antitrust violation.\"\"xAI will take immediate legal action,\" Musk said in an X post.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2159,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":398140816592984,"gmtCreate":1738227758347,"gmtModify":1738227973923,"author":{"id":"3574807189087941","authorId":"3574807189087941","name":"Icywinddale","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/3bd2fbf9d90e26b2f600b2c5d7c54244","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574807189087941","idStr":"3574807189087941"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Never waste your precious time on these kind stupid article. Totally nonsense. Tell something we don't know.","listText":"Never waste your precious time on these kind stupid article. Totally nonsense. Tell something we don't know.","text":"Never waste your precious time on these kind stupid article. Totally nonsense. Tell something we don't know.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/398140816592984","repostId":"1101465849","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1101465849","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1738224612,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1101465849?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2025-01-30 16:10","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Nvidia Bearish Momentum Explained","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1101465849","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryNVIDIA’s meteoric rise has been fueled by the generative AI boom, but history shows that tech hype cycles often result in overcapacity.15% of its Q3 2024 revenue came from China and Hong Kong. ","content":"<html><head></head><body><h2 id=\"id_2576559629\">Summary</h2><ul style=\"\"><li><p>NVIDIA’s meteoric rise has been fueled by the generative AI boom, but history shows that tech hype cycles often result in overcapacity.</p></li><li><p>15% of its Q3 2024 revenue came from China and Hong Kong. Tightened U.S. export restrictions on advanced chips to China could shrink this critical market further. If restrictions extend to Blackwell chips, this could limit growth and lead to unsold inventory.</p></li><li><p>NVDA stock trades at a forward P/S ratio far above industry peers, priced as if AI adoption will grow exponentially for years. This valuation leaves little room for error.</p></li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/f8271f5218e30171f478337709702edd\" alt=\"JHVEPhoto\" title=\"JHVEPhoto\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"500\"/><span>JHVEPhoto</span></p><p>The market is testing a new narrative for NVIDIA. This will be a bull and bear ferocious fight, but the current bear thinking is the following:</p><h2 id=\"id_357161106\">1. Overcapacity Risk in Semiconductors: The AI Bubble Narrative</h2><p><strong>Key Issue: Overinvestment Based on Overhyped Demand</strong></p><p>NVIDIA’s meteoric rise has been fueled by the generative AI boom, but history shows that tech hype cycles often result in overcapacity (e.g., the dot-com bubble, cryptocurrency mining GPUs).</p><p>Revenue from Data Center GPUs accounted for 87% of total revenue in Q3 FY2024, making NVIDIA heavily reliant on AI demand continuing indefinitely.</p><p>A 10% slowdown in AI investments or hyperscaler spending (e.g., Microsoft (MSFT), Amazon (AMZN), Google (GOOG, GOOGL)) could drastically impact NVIDIA’s revenue.</p><p>Overcommitted to Supply: NVIDIA has locked in $28.9 billion in supply commitments, expecting ongoing high demand for its Hopper and Blackwell architectures.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/f8d33a2cf85359c91492e53b0a25cd64\" alt=\"Nvidia purchase obligations\" title=\"Nvidia purchase obligations\" tg-width=\"940\" tg-height=\"173\"/><span>Nvidia purchase obligations</span></p><p>If demand slows or product transitions are delayed, these commitments could lead to massive inventory write-downs, hurting margins.</p><p><strong>Why It Matters for a Short Thesis:</strong></p><p>The semiconductor market is notoriously cyclical. Any downturn in demand could expose NVIDIA to falling prices, unsold inventory, and margin compression. Overcapacity could turn into a pricing war with competitors like AMD and Intel (INTC), further eroding profitability.</p><h2 id=\"id_3346631318\">2. NVIDIA’s Dependence on Hyperscalers and China</h2><p><strong>Key Issue: Revenue Concentration in Fragile Markets</strong></p><p>NVIDIA’s largest customers, such as Amazon, Microsoft, and Google, account for a significant portion of its revenue. If even one reduces AI-related spending due to budget cuts or cost discipline, the effect on NVIDIA would be severe.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/76daa2c745b22e4f279e5535a5f895fa\" alt=\"Nvidia Q3 2024 revenue by customer\" title=\"Nvidia Q3 2024 revenue by customer\" tg-width=\"940\" tg-height=\"143\"/><span>Nvidia Q3 2024 revenue by customer</span></p><p>15% of NVIDIA’s Q3 2024 revenue came from China and Hong Kong. Tightened U.S. export restrictions on advanced chips to China could shrink this critical market further. If restrictions extend to Blackwell chips (NVIDIA’s next-gen architecture), this could limit growth and lead to unsold inventory.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/c8582bf3c06050a3056b08a9aebbcd73\" alt=\"Nvidia Q3 2024 revenue by country\" title=\"Nvidia Q3 2024 revenue by country\" tg-width=\"940\" tg-height=\"190\"/><span>Nvidia Q3 2024 revenue by country</span></p><p><strong>Why It Matters for a Short Thesis:</strong></p><p>Geopolitical risk, combined with hyperscaler reliance, creates an unsustainable revenue model in a downturn. NVIDIA’s revenue base might not be diversified enough.</p><h2 id=\"id_1901870406\">3. Valuation Disconnect: Growth Premium Priced for Perfection</h2><p><strong>Key Issue: An Unsustainable Price-to-Sales (P/S) Ratio</strong></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/5b251921db83bf15fef6652dad5b5b42\" alt=\"Nvidia revenue estimate, price-to-sales ratio\" title=\"Nvidia revenue estimate, price-to-sales ratio\" tg-width=\"940\" tg-height=\"84\"/><span>Nvidia revenue estimate, price-to-sales ratio</span></p><p>NVIDIA’s stock trades at a forward P/S ratio far above industry peers, priced as if AI adoption will grow exponentially for years. This valuation leaves little room for error.</p><p>Market expectations assume continued exponential growth in AI-related revenue. Any sign of slowing demand or margin compression could cause a violent repricing of the stock as investors adjust to more realistic growth assumptions. The market isn’t pricing in the risks of:</p><ul style=\"\"><li><p>AI demand plateauing</p></li><li><p>Cyclical overcapacity in GPUs</p></li><li><p>Geopolitical and competitive pressures</p></li></ul><p><strong>Why It Matters for a Short Thesis:</strong></p><p>NVIDIA’s valuation could collapse under its own weight if the AI hype cycle wanes or fails to deliver on promises.</p><h2 id=\"id_4015481009\">4. Structural Weaknesses in Business Model</h2><p><strong>Key Issue: Dependence on High Margins and R&amp;D Investments</strong></p><p>NVIDIA has exceptional gross margins (~74.5% in Q3 FY2024), but these margins are vulnerable to:</p><ul style=\"\"><li><p>Increased competition from AMD, Intel, and emerging players</p></li><li><p>Overcapacity, leading to price wars</p></li><li><p>Rising R&amp;D and supply costs to maintain its technological edge</p></li><li><p>R&amp;D bloat: R&amp;D spending has ballooned to $9.2 billion for FY2024 (up 48% YoY)</p></li></ul><p>If AI demand falters, these costs become unsustainable.</p><p>Product Transition Complexity: NVIDIA’s accelerated product cadence (e.g., Hopper, Blackwell) increases risks of inventory obsolescence, supply chain inefficiencies, and customer confusion.</p><p><strong>Why It Matters for a Short Thesis:</strong></p><p>Any disruption in high-margin segments or R&amp;D inefficiencies could create cascading financial problems for NVIDIA.</p><h2 id=\"id_3212871234\">Catalysts for the Short Thesis</h2><ul style=\"\"><li><p><strong>Demand Plateau:</strong> AI adoption slows as hyperscalers optimize costs and customers hesitate on ROI for generative AI investments.</p></li><li><p><strong>Geopolitical Restrictions:</strong> Escalating U.S.-China tensions lead to further export bans, limiting NVIDIA’s market.</p></li><li><p><strong>Earnings Miss:</strong> A single revenue or margin miss due to overcapacity or demand shortfall could trigger a rapid market repricing.</p></li><li><p><strong>Valuation Correction:</strong> Investors may rotate out of “story stocks” like NVIDIA during a broader market downturn.</p></li></ul><h2 id=\"id_2732796899\">Impact on thesis</h2><p>I am not really picking on this whole battle, I am only trying to collect my thoughts and understand what the emerging side (bears) is seeing. I think the previous paragraphs capture it well. Going forward, the DeepSeek developments will likely hang over NVIDIA. The cost efficiency argument on the surface means that AI models require fewer GPUs per training cycle, and given that Hyperscalers optimize for cost savings, we can see them reducing total spending on NVIDIA’s chips sometime in the near future. Even a small reduction vis-a-vis expectations can drive a brutal repricing of the company’s valuation.</p><p>Nevertheless, I think that the Jevons Paradox will prevail in the long term. As AI model training becomes cheaper, demand for NVIDIA GPUs will increase, not decrease. The expanded accessibility and new use cases will likely make it happen.</p><p>That said, it is important to understand that there is likely to be turbulence as market participants try to digest this important piece of news. There will likely be moments of violent re-pricings at some of the next few quarterly earnings calls if there is any hint of spending cuts by Hyperscallers. I recommend keeping an eye on hyperscalers&#39; CapEx; if they reduce total spending, NVIDIA might be hit. Also, keep an eye on abnormal price cuts in GPUs. Both can be a flag for margin compression. In my opinion, this can turn out to be a buying opportunity if the Jevons Paradox holds. At this moment, I think it will, but it will be critical to correctly frame the time horizon for these swings.</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1728464409321","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Nvidia Bearish Momentum Explained</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNvidia Bearish Momentum Explained\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2025-01-30 16:10 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4752904-nvidia-bearish-momentum-explained><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryNVIDIA’s meteoric rise has been fueled by the generative AI boom, but history shows that tech hype cycles often result in overcapacity.15% of its Q3 2024 revenue came from China and Hong Kong. ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4752904-nvidia-bearish-momentum-explained\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NVDA":"英伟达"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4752904-nvidia-bearish-momentum-explained","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1101465849","content_text":"SummaryNVIDIA’s meteoric rise has been fueled by the generative AI boom, but history shows that tech hype cycles often result in overcapacity.15% of its Q3 2024 revenue came from China and Hong Kong. Tightened U.S. export restrictions on advanced chips to China could shrink this critical market further. If restrictions extend to Blackwell chips, this could limit growth and lead to unsold inventory.NVDA stock trades at a forward P/S ratio far above industry peers, priced as if AI adoption will grow exponentially for years. This valuation leaves little room for error.JHVEPhotoThe market is testing a new narrative for NVIDIA. This will be a bull and bear ferocious fight, but the current bear thinking is the following:1. Overcapacity Risk in Semiconductors: The AI Bubble NarrativeKey Issue: Overinvestment Based on Overhyped DemandNVIDIA’s meteoric rise has been fueled by the generative AI boom, but history shows that tech hype cycles often result in overcapacity (e.g., the dot-com bubble, cryptocurrency mining GPUs).Revenue from Data Center GPUs accounted for 87% of total revenue in Q3 FY2024, making NVIDIA heavily reliant on AI demand continuing indefinitely.A 10% slowdown in AI investments or hyperscaler spending (e.g., Microsoft (MSFT), Amazon (AMZN), Google (GOOG, GOOGL)) could drastically impact NVIDIA’s revenue.Overcommitted to Supply: NVIDIA has locked in $28.9 billion in supply commitments, expecting ongoing high demand for its Hopper and Blackwell architectures.Nvidia purchase obligationsIf demand slows or product transitions are delayed, these commitments could lead to massive inventory write-downs, hurting margins.Why It Matters for a Short Thesis:The semiconductor market is notoriously cyclical. Any downturn in demand could expose NVIDIA to falling prices, unsold inventory, and margin compression. Overcapacity could turn into a pricing war with competitors like AMD and Intel (INTC), further eroding profitability.2. NVIDIA’s Dependence on Hyperscalers and ChinaKey Issue: Revenue Concentration in Fragile MarketsNVIDIA’s largest customers, such as Amazon, Microsoft, and Google, account for a significant portion of its revenue. If even one reduces AI-related spending due to budget cuts or cost discipline, the effect on NVIDIA would be severe.Nvidia Q3 2024 revenue by customer15% of NVIDIA’s Q3 2024 revenue came from China and Hong Kong. Tightened U.S. export restrictions on advanced chips to China could shrink this critical market further. If restrictions extend to Blackwell chips (NVIDIA’s next-gen architecture), this could limit growth and lead to unsold inventory.Nvidia Q3 2024 revenue by countryWhy It Matters for a Short Thesis:Geopolitical risk, combined with hyperscaler reliance, creates an unsustainable revenue model in a downturn. NVIDIA’s revenue base might not be diversified enough.3. Valuation Disconnect: Growth Premium Priced for PerfectionKey Issue: An Unsustainable Price-to-Sales (P/S) RatioNvidia revenue estimate, price-to-sales ratioNVIDIA’s stock trades at a forward P/S ratio far above industry peers, priced as if AI adoption will grow exponentially for years. This valuation leaves little room for error.Market expectations assume continued exponential growth in AI-related revenue. Any sign of slowing demand or margin compression could cause a violent repricing of the stock as investors adjust to more realistic growth assumptions. The market isn’t pricing in the risks of:AI demand plateauingCyclical overcapacity in GPUsGeopolitical and competitive pressuresWhy It Matters for a Short Thesis:NVIDIA’s valuation could collapse under its own weight if the AI hype cycle wanes or fails to deliver on promises.4. Structural Weaknesses in Business ModelKey Issue: Dependence on High Margins and R&D InvestmentsNVIDIA has exceptional gross margins (~74.5% in Q3 FY2024), but these margins are vulnerable to:Increased competition from AMD, Intel, and emerging playersOvercapacity, leading to price warsRising R&D and supply costs to maintain its technological edgeR&D bloat: R&D spending has ballooned to $9.2 billion for FY2024 (up 48% YoY)If AI demand falters, these costs become unsustainable.Product Transition Complexity: NVIDIA’s accelerated product cadence (e.g., Hopper, Blackwell) increases risks of inventory obsolescence, supply chain inefficiencies, and customer confusion.Why It Matters for a Short Thesis:Any disruption in high-margin segments or R&D inefficiencies could create cascading financial problems for NVIDIA.Catalysts for the Short ThesisDemand Plateau: AI adoption slows as hyperscalers optimize costs and customers hesitate on ROI for generative AI investments.Geopolitical Restrictions: Escalating U.S.-China tensions lead to further export bans, limiting NVIDIA’s market.Earnings Miss: A single revenue or margin miss due to overcapacity or demand shortfall could trigger a rapid market repricing.Valuation Correction: Investors may rotate out of “story stocks” like NVIDIA during a broader market downturn.Impact on thesisI am not really picking on this whole battle, I am only trying to collect my thoughts and understand what the emerging side (bears) is seeing. I think the previous paragraphs capture it well. Going forward, the DeepSeek developments will likely hang over NVIDIA. The cost efficiency argument on the surface means that AI models require fewer GPUs per training cycle, and given that Hyperscalers optimize for cost savings, we can see them reducing total spending on NVIDIA’s chips sometime in the near future. Even a small reduction vis-a-vis expectations can drive a brutal repricing of the company’s valuation.Nevertheless, I think that the Jevons Paradox will prevail in the long term. As AI model training becomes cheaper, demand for NVIDIA GPUs will increase, not decrease. The expanded accessibility and new use cases will likely make it happen.That said, it is important to understand that there is likely to be turbulence as market participants try to digest this important piece of news. There will likely be moments of violent re-pricings at some of the next few quarterly earnings calls if there is any hint of spending cuts by Hyperscallers. I recommend keeping an eye on hyperscalers' CapEx; if they reduce total spending, NVIDIA might be hit. Also, keep an eye on abnormal price cuts in GPUs. Both can be a flag for margin compression. In my opinion, this can turn out to be a buying opportunity if the Jevons Paradox holds. At this moment, I think it will, but it will be critical to correctly frame the time horizon for these swings.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NVDA":1.1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2996,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":391820958122160,"gmtCreate":1736665464954,"gmtModify":1736667246789,"author":{"id":"3574807189087941","authorId":"3574807189087941","name":"Icywinddale","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/3bd2fbf9d90e26b2f600b2c5d7c54244","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574807189087941","idStr":"3574807189087941"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Bull shit","listText":"Bull shit","text":"Bull shit","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/391820958122160","repostId":"1162107727","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1162107727","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1736647249,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1162107727?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2025-01-12 10:00","market":"us","language":"en","title":"4 Underappreciated Risks Facing Nvidia Bulls","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1162107727","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryHeavy reliance on a few mega-cap tech companies poses a significant risk to Nvidia Corporation sales should investors begin to demand capital discipline from these companies.The surge in Nvidia","content":"<html><head></head><body><h2 id=\"id_1684018099\">Summary</h2><ul style=\"\"><li><p>Heavy reliance on a few mega-cap tech companies poses a significant risk to Nvidia Corporation sales should investors begin to demand capital discipline from these companies.</p></li><li><p>The surge in Nvidia&#39;s accounts receivable will act as a headwind to sales, as their customers already owe the company significant amounts of cash.</p></li><li><p>Widespread optimism among analysts and options traders poses a risk to valuation multiples should the bullish trend reverse.</p></li><li><p>The failure of the stock to reach new highs recently, combined with recent bearish price action, suggests a potential significant trend change could be afoot.</p></li></ul><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/6144f6f01bec9d39bca22c82ac595a7e\" alt=\"Nvidia Corporation building in Taipei, Taiwan.\" title=\"Nvidia Corporation building in Taipei, Taiwan.\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"500\"/><span>Nvidia Corporation building in Taipei, Taiwan.</span></p><p></p><p><strong>BING-JHEN HONG</strong></p><p></p><p>The bullish case for <strong>Nvidia Corporation</strong> (NASDAQ:NVDA) rests on the continuation of the company&#39;s blockbuster earnings growth, which many believe will allow the stock to grow into its elevated valuation multiples. However, I see four underappreciated risks facing the company over the next 12 months. The first is that the decline in profitability of Nvidia&#39;s main customers causes a sharp stock price decline and a shift towards capital discipline. Second is the extreme rise in Nvidia&#39;s accounts receivable, which may act as a headwind to future sales growth. Third is the extreme levels of optimism among analysts and options markets regarding the stock&#39;s outlook. Fourth is the failure of the stock price to rise to new highs despite this widespread optimism. Taken together, I maintain my strong sell rating on the stock and remain short.</p><h2 id=\"id_3090282346\">1) Declining Profitability Of Nvidia&#39;s Main Customers</h2><p>It could well be the case that a large share of Nvidia&#39;s earnings will turn out to reflect malinvestment resulting from the excessive spending among mega-cap tech stocks that has been enabled by the surge in their share prices. It has been estimated that as much as half of Nvidia&#39;s sales come from just four companies, namely Microsoft (MSFT), Meta Platforms (META) Amazon (AMZN), and Alphabet (GOOGL), while Tesla (TSLA) is also thought to be a significant customer. This may appear to be a positive thing, as these companies on the whole are highly stable and growing strongly. However, this level of concentration is troubling for several reasons.</p><p>One risk that has been well documented is that the major cloud computing customers reduce their reliance on Nvidia&#39;s chips via their own in-house AI chip development efforts. However, a less well-documented risk comes from a potential collapse in AI industry capex if the valuation bubble in mega-cap tech stocks bursts, leading to a shift towards capital discipline.</p><p>Over the past year, MSFT, META, GOOGL, AMZN, and TSLA have spent over $200bn in capex, equivalent to 20% of the entire S&amp;P500. If it is true that 50% of Nvidia&#39;s sales are to these companies, this means that almost one-third of the capex from these companies has found its way into Nvidia&#39;s coffers.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/25f238808ceeaa53ad53bbf8b3ac0497\" alt=\"Chart of Mag 7 Capex\" title=\"Chart of Mag 7 Capex\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"418\"/><span>Chart of Mag 7 Capex</span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>Bloomberg</strong></p><p></p><p>This huge investment spending has been enabled by the relentless appetite among investors for these stocks, sending a signal to management to continue full steam ahead despite there being little to show for these investments in terms of monetization. Moreover, stock-based compensation, or SBC, for these five companies amounted to $75bn over the same period, equivalent to 36% of the entire S&amp;P500 SBC. While stock-based compensation among these companies is of no benefit to Nvidia directly, their ability to offer expensive stock as compensation to employees has allowed them to ramp up AI training expenditure. Taken together, the combined value of capex and SBC among these five stocks has amounted to 19% of total sales over the past year. As a result, free cash flows excluding stock-based compensation for the group have actually declined over the past two quarters.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/756a69bc3fb19081b4586223420dd9fe\" alt=\"Chart of Mag 7 Cash flows\" title=\"Chart of Mag 7 Cash flows\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"418\"/><span>Chart of Mag 7 Cash flows</span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>Bloomberg</strong></p><p></p><p>The problem now is that these five stocks collectively trade at over 60x free cash flow ex-stock-based compensation, resulting in a free cash flow yield of around 1.5%. Meanwhile, 30-year inflation-linked bonds offer a yield of 2.6%. Such negative risk premiums have not been seen since the height of the late-1990s stock bubble, and strongly suggest that the current bubble is in its final stages. Any decline in the price of these five stocks could trigger a shift in priorities among management teams in favor of capital discipline. That could make it much more expensive for them to dish out stock-based compensation to employees to train AI models.</p><h2 id=\"id_2413479590\">2) Surging Accounts Receivable Is A Headwind For Sales</h2><p>An additional risk to Nvidia comes from the astonishing increase in accounts receivable, which increased by $9.4bn in the past four quarters. In the last quarter alone, the figure rose by $3.6bn. The sudden increase relative to sales stands out as being extreme when measured relative to the rest of the mega-cap universe, as shown in the chart below.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/bae2b98938d00814e2e1fdf7b61cee20\" alt=\"Chart of Mega Cap Accounts Receivable\" title=\"Chart of Mega Cap Accounts Receivable\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"445\"/><span>Chart of Mega Cap Accounts Receivable</span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>Bloomberg</strong></p><p></p><p>Considering that around half of the companies&#39; revenues come from highly stable mega-cap stocks, there is little risk that these reported earnings will not flow into the cash coffers. However, it does create a headwind for future sales, as its customers already owe the company significant amounts of cash.</p><h2 id=\"id_4278785936\">3) Sentiment, Positioning, And Wild Valuation Projections</h2><p>The price of 1-year call options on the stock exceeds the price of 1-year put options, which has only occurred a handful of times over the past decade, typically after a large stock price increase has already happened. As most investors use options as a hedge against a fall in the price of their stock holdings, the fact that it costs more to hedge against a large gain relative to a large drop indicated a large degree of speculative interest in the stock.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/f1b417dee9e02ccf920a94eeee0c6f89\" alt=\"Chart of NVDA Option Volatility\" title=\"Chart of NVDA Option Volatility\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"224\"/><span>Chart of NVDA Option Volatility</span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>Price of 1-Year NVDA Implied Call Option Volatility Vs Put Option Volatility (Bloomberg)</strong></p><p></p><p>Wall Street is also extremely bullish on the stock, with zero analysts giving it a sell rating. Meanwhile, the 12-month price target is fully 23% above current levels and 17% above its all-time high. We have also seen a proliferation of analyses calling for Nvidia to reach staggering valuations as high as $10tn, often justified by its low PEG (price-to-earnings-to-growth) ratio, such as this article. The author argues that Nvidia is a bargain due to expected earnings growth being higher than its forward P/E ratio. Leaving aside the fact that this double counts the rapid earnings growth expected in 2025, the PEG ratio is an extremely flawed valuation metric. It fails to consider the inevitable slowdown in growth that results once a company&#39;s earnings reach a significant share of the economy. It is the kind of metric that is brought out to justify paying extreme multiples for a stock.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/3da07b16243a12a5d8e85c36d6ffd820\" alt=\"Table of PEG Ratios\" title=\"Table of PEG Ratios\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"485\"/><span>Table of PEG Ratios</span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>Barrons</strong></p><p></p><h2 id=\"id_1548182104\">4) Concerning Chart Pattern</h2><p>Despite the widespread optimism towards Nvidia&#39;s stock, its price has failed to break out into new highs, and the large downside reversal candle seen on January 7 hints at a potential reversal pattern. The stock is now no higher than it was at its June peak when I last highlighted the extreme nature of its valuation multiples. Given the widespread bullish positioning in options markets, downside momentum could gather on any further weakness as options traders and margin-funded long positions are forced to reverse their bets.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/2206ab5285cec323d0c2e852c6445b66\" alt=\"Chart of NVDA\" title=\"Chart of NVDA\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"232\"/><span>Chart of NVDA</span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>NVDA Stock Price (Bloomberg)</strong></p><p></p><h2 id=\"id_4263502009\">Summary</h2><p>Nvidia bulls face several significant risks over the coming quarters, including the declining profitability of their main customers, surging accounts receivable, excessive optimism around the stock, and a deterioration in the price chart. A significant decline in the stock seems highly likely in 2025.</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1728464409321","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>4 Underappreciated Risks Facing Nvidia Bulls</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n4 Underappreciated Risks Facing Nvidia Bulls\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2025-01-12 10:00 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4748780-4-underappreciated-risks-facing-nvidia-bulls><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryHeavy reliance on a few mega-cap tech companies poses a significant risk to Nvidia Corporation sales should investors begin to demand capital discipline from these companies.The surge in Nvidia...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4748780-4-underappreciated-risks-facing-nvidia-bulls\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NVDA":"英伟达"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4748780-4-underappreciated-risks-facing-nvidia-bulls","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1162107727","content_text":"SummaryHeavy reliance on a few mega-cap tech companies poses a significant risk to Nvidia Corporation sales should investors begin to demand capital discipline from these companies.The surge in Nvidia's accounts receivable will act as a headwind to sales, as their customers already owe the company significant amounts of cash.Widespread optimism among analysts and options traders poses a risk to valuation multiples should the bullish trend reverse.The failure of the stock to reach new highs recently, combined with recent bearish price action, suggests a potential significant trend change could be afoot.Nvidia Corporation building in Taipei, Taiwan.BING-JHEN HONGThe bullish case for Nvidia Corporation (NASDAQ:NVDA) rests on the continuation of the company's blockbuster earnings growth, which many believe will allow the stock to grow into its elevated valuation multiples. However, I see four underappreciated risks facing the company over the next 12 months. The first is that the decline in profitability of Nvidia's main customers causes a sharp stock price decline and a shift towards capital discipline. Second is the extreme rise in Nvidia's accounts receivable, which may act as a headwind to future sales growth. Third is the extreme levels of optimism among analysts and options markets regarding the stock's outlook. Fourth is the failure of the stock price to rise to new highs despite this widespread optimism. Taken together, I maintain my strong sell rating on the stock and remain short.1) Declining Profitability Of Nvidia's Main CustomersIt could well be the case that a large share of Nvidia's earnings will turn out to reflect malinvestment resulting from the excessive spending among mega-cap tech stocks that has been enabled by the surge in their share prices. It has been estimated that as much as half of Nvidia's sales come from just four companies, namely Microsoft (MSFT), Meta Platforms (META) Amazon (AMZN), and Alphabet (GOOGL), while Tesla (TSLA) is also thought to be a significant customer. This may appear to be a positive thing, as these companies on the whole are highly stable and growing strongly. However, this level of concentration is troubling for several reasons.One risk that has been well documented is that the major cloud computing customers reduce their reliance on Nvidia's chips via their own in-house AI chip development efforts. However, a less well-documented risk comes from a potential collapse in AI industry capex if the valuation bubble in mega-cap tech stocks bursts, leading to a shift towards capital discipline.Over the past year, MSFT, META, GOOGL, AMZN, and TSLA have spent over $200bn in capex, equivalent to 20% of the entire S&P500. If it is true that 50% of Nvidia's sales are to these companies, this means that almost one-third of the capex from these companies has found its way into Nvidia's coffers.Chart of Mag 7 CapexBloombergThis huge investment spending has been enabled by the relentless appetite among investors for these stocks, sending a signal to management to continue full steam ahead despite there being little to show for these investments in terms of monetization. Moreover, stock-based compensation, or SBC, for these five companies amounted to $75bn over the same period, equivalent to 36% of the entire S&P500 SBC. While stock-based compensation among these companies is of no benefit to Nvidia directly, their ability to offer expensive stock as compensation to employees has allowed them to ramp up AI training expenditure. Taken together, the combined value of capex and SBC among these five stocks has amounted to 19% of total sales over the past year. As a result, free cash flows excluding stock-based compensation for the group have actually declined over the past two quarters.Chart of Mag 7 Cash flowsBloombergThe problem now is that these five stocks collectively trade at over 60x free cash flow ex-stock-based compensation, resulting in a free cash flow yield of around 1.5%. Meanwhile, 30-year inflation-linked bonds offer a yield of 2.6%. Such negative risk premiums have not been seen since the height of the late-1990s stock bubble, and strongly suggest that the current bubble is in its final stages. Any decline in the price of these five stocks could trigger a shift in priorities among management teams in favor of capital discipline. That could make it much more expensive for them to dish out stock-based compensation to employees to train AI models.2) Surging Accounts Receivable Is A Headwind For SalesAn additional risk to Nvidia comes from the astonishing increase in accounts receivable, which increased by $9.4bn in the past four quarters. In the last quarter alone, the figure rose by $3.6bn. The sudden increase relative to sales stands out as being extreme when measured relative to the rest of the mega-cap universe, as shown in the chart below.Chart of Mega Cap Accounts ReceivableBloombergConsidering that around half of the companies' revenues come from highly stable mega-cap stocks, there is little risk that these reported earnings will not flow into the cash coffers. However, it does create a headwind for future sales, as its customers already owe the company significant amounts of cash.3) Sentiment, Positioning, And Wild Valuation ProjectionsThe price of 1-year call options on the stock exceeds the price of 1-year put options, which has only occurred a handful of times over the past decade, typically after a large stock price increase has already happened. As most investors use options as a hedge against a fall in the price of their stock holdings, the fact that it costs more to hedge against a large gain relative to a large drop indicated a large degree of speculative interest in the stock.Chart of NVDA Option VolatilityPrice of 1-Year NVDA Implied Call Option Volatility Vs Put Option Volatility (Bloomberg)Wall Street is also extremely bullish on the stock, with zero analysts giving it a sell rating. Meanwhile, the 12-month price target is fully 23% above current levels and 17% above its all-time high. We have also seen a proliferation of analyses calling for Nvidia to reach staggering valuations as high as $10tn, often justified by its low PEG (price-to-earnings-to-growth) ratio, such as this article. The author argues that Nvidia is a bargain due to expected earnings growth being higher than its forward P/E ratio. Leaving aside the fact that this double counts the rapid earnings growth expected in 2025, the PEG ratio is an extremely flawed valuation metric. It fails to consider the inevitable slowdown in growth that results once a company's earnings reach a significant share of the economy. It is the kind of metric that is brought out to justify paying extreme multiples for a stock.Table of PEG RatiosBarrons4) Concerning Chart PatternDespite the widespread optimism towards Nvidia's stock, its price has failed to break out into new highs, and the large downside reversal candle seen on January 7 hints at a potential reversal pattern. The stock is now no higher than it was at its June peak when I last highlighted the extreme nature of its valuation multiples. Given the widespread bullish positioning in options markets, downside momentum could gather on any further weakness as options traders and margin-funded long positions are forced to reverse their bets.Chart of NVDANVDA Stock Price (Bloomberg)SummaryNvidia bulls face several significant risks over the coming quarters, including the declining profitability of their main customers, surging accounts receivable, excessive optimism around the stock, and a deterioration in the price chart. A significant decline in the stock seems highly likely in 2025.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NVDA":1.1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3544,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":382617526878608,"gmtCreate":1734447495602,"gmtModify":1734447535935,"author":{"id":"3574807189087941","authorId":"3574807189087941","name":"Icywinddale","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/3bd2fbf9d90e26b2f600b2c5d7c54244","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574807189087941","idStr":"3574807189087941"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Can not believe this kind shit article can be published. Who is the author?","listText":"Can not believe this kind shit article can be published. Who is the author?","text":"Can not believe this kind shit article can be published. Who is the author?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/382617526878608","repostId":"1128864584","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1128864584","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1734416177,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1128864584?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2024-12-17 14:16","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Nvidia: This Could Be The Top","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1128864584","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryA rather tepid Nvidia Corporation forecast for Q4, which failed to meet Wall Street’s relatively high expectations, is one of the main reasons behind the recent decline in NVDA's share price.At","content":"<html><head></head><body><h2 id=\"id_1885097578\">Summary</h2><ul style=\"\"><li><p>A rather tepid Nvidia Corporation forecast for Q4, which failed to meet Wall Street’s relatively high expectations, is one of the main reasons behind the recent decline in NVDA&#39;s share price.</p></li><li><p>At this point, Nvidia’s stock could be considered overvalued and overhyped at the same time.</p></li><li><p>Nvidia remains a SELL for us, since we believe that its stock has more room to fall.</p></li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/f1cd66fb76fb9c3656779aa6ac145d6d\" alt=\"\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"500\"/></p><p><strong>Nvidia Corporation </strong>(NASDAQ:NVDA) stock is up 14% since we last covered it a couple of months ago, but also down 7% since the release of its Q3 earnings report last month. Although the earnings report was successful, the market is not satisfied with the guidance that the management announced.</p><p>In our previous coverage on Nvidia, we said that the company’s stock is priced for perfection and the inability of the management to constantly increase the outlook significantly above the consensus could kill Nvidia’s momentum. That is precisely what is happening right now. We believe that because of the rising challenges that the company is facing, the future guidance for the upcoming quarters might disappoint as well and lead to a further depreciation of Nvidia’s share price.</p><h2 id=\"id_3690589756\">Reality Fails To Meet Expectations</h2><p>The Q3 numbers themselves weren’t that bad. The revenues were up 93.6% Y/Y to $35.08 billion, above the consensus by nearly $2 billion. The bottom-line performance was also relatively good, as it was above the consensus as well. But because Nvidia was priced for perfection already, the relatively weak guidance killed the stock’s momentum, and the share price is currently on a downward trend.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/b9d4491fd0ada5a07d412d888f3a9fae\" alt=\"Nvidia’s stock price\" title=\"Nvidia’s stock price\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"261\"/><span>Nvidia’s stock price</span></p><p>In Q4, the management expects Nvidia to make $37.5 billion in revenues, which is not that far away from the street consensus of $37.1 billion. Some analysts guided for the revenue goal of as high as $41 billion before the management’s outlook was released. But overall, the guidance mainly disappointed Wall Street and became one of the main reasons behind the latest depreciation. At the same time, Nvidia faces some major challenges that could prevent the company from aggressively increasing the outlook that could impress Wall Street in the upcoming quarters as well.</p><p>The AI accelerators from the Blackwell series are currently one of the most talked about accelerators in the world, with an insane demand according to Nvidia’s management. However, some issues associated with them have already affected Nvidia’s release plans. In October, Blackwell encountered a design flaw that resulted in lower yield rates and delayed their shipping to first clients. Then last month, it was reported that Blackwell chips were overheating in servers.</p><p>Although it appears that those issues have now been fixed and the ramp-up of Blackwell is expected in Q4, Nvidia’s guidance suggests that revenue of $37.5 billion for the upcoming quarter will translate to a Q/Q growth rate of only 7%. This might indicate that despite all the hype surrounding Blackwell, the AI chip buying cycle could be coming off the peak right now. That doesn’t mean that the growth will disappear. However, the growth rate itself should normalize and the aggressive double and triple-digit revenue growth rate that fueled the rise of Nvidia’s stock could become a thing of the past.</p><p>The ramp-up of Blackwell in the upcoming quarters is also expected to affect Nvidia’s margins and could result in a poorer bottom-line performance. The gross margins are expected to decline to the low 70s, and the margin pressure could persist throughout the first part of FY26. This creates additional pressure on Nvidia, as Blackwell needs to perform well for the company to not release another relatively disappointing guidance that further kills the stock of its momentum. Considering that the networking revenues were down sequentially in Q3, and the gaming revenues in Q4 are expected to be down sequentially as well, Nvidia’s upside could be limited in the foreseeable future if Blackwell doesn’t perform well.</p><p>Nvidia also faces additional pressure from hyperscalers, who at the same time are its major clients. They are currently in the middle of designing their own AI chips for their data centers, which over time could undermine Nvidia’s dominant position in the AI accelerator market. We already know that Amazon (AMZN) is working with Intel (INTC) to produce a fabric AI chip, while Apple (AAPL) recently confirmed that it now also uses Amazon’s custom AI chips. Other companies like Microsoft (MSFT), Meta Platforms (META), Google (GOOGL, GOOG), Tesla (TSLA) and OpenAI are also in the middle of designing their own AI chips and could become direct competitors of Nvidia over time.</p><p>All of those developments make us question Nvidia’s market capitalization of $3.4 trillion. The whole generative AI market is not expected to generate as much revenue over the following years. Thus, it doesn’t make a lot of sense for Nvidia to be worth so much today, given the number of issues that it faces.</p><p>The geopolitical issues are also not going anywhere away. The implementation of Trump’s protectionist tariff policy next year could damage global growth, which could result in lower demand for AI chips since businesses could be forced to hoard resources in the face of macroeconomic uncertainty. Nvidia already suffers from the ongoing chip war between China and the United States, as its revenues in China are currently below historically high levels due to chip export restrictions. An uncertain macro environment will only make it harder for it to aggressively increase its outlook to satisfy the market’s needs.</p><h3 id=\"id_211129166\">The Intrinsic Value of Nvidia</h3><p>At the current market price, we also believe that Nvidia is overvalued. Our valuation model from the previous article showed that Nvidia’s intrinsic value is $79.33 per share. Since Nvidia released a new outlook last month, we decided to update our model and make several revisions.</p><p>In the model, we decrease Nvidia’s effective tax rate from 21% to 15%. The 15% is closer to Nvidia’s current rate, and there’s a possibility that the standard corporate tax rate in the United States will be decreased under the Trump administration. The perpetual growth rate remains at 3%, and our valuation model forecasts Nvidia’s performance for the next five years. The long-term debt and cash data have been taken from the latest earnings report, and we update this model when Nvidia is trading at $134.25 per share.</p><p>The discount rate in our valuation model is 9.84%. We figured it out by calculating Nvidia’s after-tax cost of debt and cost of equity. To figure out the cost of debt, we mostly used Nvidia’s TTM data. To figure out the cost of equity, we used the risk-free rate of 4.40%, beta of 1.66, and the market-return rate of 7.69%. We then weighted Nvidia’s debt and equity to arrive at the discount rate.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/a6bea708b99e09c85b15fd4405208555\" alt=\"Nvidia’s valuation model\" title=\"Nvidia’s valuation model\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"182\"/><span>Nvidia’s valuation model</span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>Nvidia’s valuation model (Bears of Wall Street)</strong></p><p></p><p>For the forecast table below, we updated the sales growth rate, which is now similar to the overall expectations for the next couple of years. As the table shows, we expect a normalization of the sales growth rate in the following years. The EBIT rate remained the same as before and is similar to the current TTM rate. The tax rate was decreased, and the bottom part of the forecast table mostly remained the same.</p><p>The assumptions in our forecast table helped us to figure out Nvidia’s enterprise value, which in our case is $2.23 trillion. We then added cash and subtracted debt to arrive at the equity value of $2.26 trillion. Thereafter, we divided Nvidia’s equity value by the number of its outstanding shares and figured out that Nvidia’s intrinsic value is $91.20 per share. The lower tax rate in this updated model is one of the main reasons why the intrinsic value has been higher in comparison to our previous model. However, under the new assumptions, Nvidia’s stock is overvalued by around 32%.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/5c46e9d52e3bae0f74e46a337968e78d\" alt=\"Nvidia’s valuation model\" title=\"Nvidia’s valuation model\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"228\"/><span>Nvidia’s valuation model</span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>Nvidia’s valuation model (Bears of Wall Street)</strong></p><p></p><h3 id=\"id_4292459600\">Risks To Our Bearish Thesis</h3><p>Although we believe that Nvidia’s stock has likely reached its top for now, there are still a couple of potential developments that can undermine our bearish outlook for the company. While we are unlikely to see an aggressive Y/Y growth of sales in the future since the base for comparison has been significantly raised in the last year and a half, that doesn’t mean that the growth will stop. Since there’s a possibility that a chip shortage could last for the next couple of years, there’s a potential that the demand for AI chips will remain for a while. This could result in sales that are higher than the current consensus once the production of Blackwell is ramped up. This could push Nvidia’s stock price higher, like it was a year ago, even if the Y/Y growth rate won’t be as impressive as before.</p><p>The macro risks could also be overblown, and there’s a possibility that the American economy will grow next year despite the geopolitical uncertainty. This could result in a boost in demand for AI chips and also lead to the growth of Nvidia’s share price.</p><h2 id=\"id_2596097235\">Final Thoughts</h2><p>Is Nvidia a great business? Yes. Will it continue to grow for years to come? Most likely yes. But the biggest issue at this point is that the rate at which Nvidia is growing is unlikely to be as impressive as before. We believe that a rather tepid forecast for Q4, which failed to meet Wall Street’s relatively high expectations, is one of the main reasons behind the recent decline of Nvidia’s share price.</p><p>Considering that the stock is already overvalued while challenges for Nvidia continue to increase, it would be tough for the stock to continue to trade at the current relatively high multiples. That is why Nvidia remains a SELL for us, since we believe that its stock has more room to fall.</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1728464409321","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Nvidia: This Could Be The Top</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNvidia: This Could Be The Top\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-12-17 14:16 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4744616-nvidia-this-could-be-the-top><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryA rather tepid Nvidia Corporation forecast for Q4, which failed to meet Wall Street’s relatively high expectations, is one of the main reasons behind the recent decline in NVDA's share price.At...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4744616-nvidia-this-could-be-the-top\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NVDA":"英伟达"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4744616-nvidia-this-could-be-the-top","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1128864584","content_text":"SummaryA rather tepid Nvidia Corporation forecast for Q4, which failed to meet Wall Street’s relatively high expectations, is one of the main reasons behind the recent decline in NVDA's share price.At this point, Nvidia’s stock could be considered overvalued and overhyped at the same time.Nvidia remains a SELL for us, since we believe that its stock has more room to fall.Nvidia Corporation (NASDAQ:NVDA) stock is up 14% since we last covered it a couple of months ago, but also down 7% since the release of its Q3 earnings report last month. Although the earnings report was successful, the market is not satisfied with the guidance that the management announced.In our previous coverage on Nvidia, we said that the company’s stock is priced for perfection and the inability of the management to constantly increase the outlook significantly above the consensus could kill Nvidia’s momentum. That is precisely what is happening right now. We believe that because of the rising challenges that the company is facing, the future guidance for the upcoming quarters might disappoint as well and lead to a further depreciation of Nvidia’s share price.Reality Fails To Meet ExpectationsThe Q3 numbers themselves weren’t that bad. The revenues were up 93.6% Y/Y to $35.08 billion, above the consensus by nearly $2 billion. The bottom-line performance was also relatively good, as it was above the consensus as well. But because Nvidia was priced for perfection already, the relatively weak guidance killed the stock’s momentum, and the share price is currently on a downward trend.Nvidia’s stock priceIn Q4, the management expects Nvidia to make $37.5 billion in revenues, which is not that far away from the street consensus of $37.1 billion. Some analysts guided for the revenue goal of as high as $41 billion before the management’s outlook was released. But overall, the guidance mainly disappointed Wall Street and became one of the main reasons behind the latest depreciation. At the same time, Nvidia faces some major challenges that could prevent the company from aggressively increasing the outlook that could impress Wall Street in the upcoming quarters as well.The AI accelerators from the Blackwell series are currently one of the most talked about accelerators in the world, with an insane demand according to Nvidia’s management. However, some issues associated with them have already affected Nvidia’s release plans. In October, Blackwell encountered a design flaw that resulted in lower yield rates and delayed their shipping to first clients. Then last month, it was reported that Blackwell chips were overheating in servers.Although it appears that those issues have now been fixed and the ramp-up of Blackwell is expected in Q4, Nvidia’s guidance suggests that revenue of $37.5 billion for the upcoming quarter will translate to a Q/Q growth rate of only 7%. This might indicate that despite all the hype surrounding Blackwell, the AI chip buying cycle could be coming off the peak right now. That doesn’t mean that the growth will disappear. However, the growth rate itself should normalize and the aggressive double and triple-digit revenue growth rate that fueled the rise of Nvidia’s stock could become a thing of the past.The ramp-up of Blackwell in the upcoming quarters is also expected to affect Nvidia’s margins and could result in a poorer bottom-line performance. The gross margins are expected to decline to the low 70s, and the margin pressure could persist throughout the first part of FY26. This creates additional pressure on Nvidia, as Blackwell needs to perform well for the company to not release another relatively disappointing guidance that further kills the stock of its momentum. Considering that the networking revenues were down sequentially in Q3, and the gaming revenues in Q4 are expected to be down sequentially as well, Nvidia’s upside could be limited in the foreseeable future if Blackwell doesn’t perform well.Nvidia also faces additional pressure from hyperscalers, who at the same time are its major clients. They are currently in the middle of designing their own AI chips for their data centers, which over time could undermine Nvidia’s dominant position in the AI accelerator market. We already know that Amazon (AMZN) is working with Intel (INTC) to produce a fabric AI chip, while Apple (AAPL) recently confirmed that it now also uses Amazon’s custom AI chips. Other companies like Microsoft (MSFT), Meta Platforms (META), Google (GOOGL, GOOG), Tesla (TSLA) and OpenAI are also in the middle of designing their own AI chips and could become direct competitors of Nvidia over time.All of those developments make us question Nvidia’s market capitalization of $3.4 trillion. The whole generative AI market is not expected to generate as much revenue over the following years. Thus, it doesn’t make a lot of sense for Nvidia to be worth so much today, given the number of issues that it faces.The geopolitical issues are also not going anywhere away. The implementation of Trump’s protectionist tariff policy next year could damage global growth, which could result in lower demand for AI chips since businesses could be forced to hoard resources in the face of macroeconomic uncertainty. Nvidia already suffers from the ongoing chip war between China and the United States, as its revenues in China are currently below historically high levels due to chip export restrictions. An uncertain macro environment will only make it harder for it to aggressively increase its outlook to satisfy the market’s needs.The Intrinsic Value of NvidiaAt the current market price, we also believe that Nvidia is overvalued. Our valuation model from the previous article showed that Nvidia’s intrinsic value is $79.33 per share. Since Nvidia released a new outlook last month, we decided to update our model and make several revisions.In the model, we decrease Nvidia’s effective tax rate from 21% to 15%. The 15% is closer to Nvidia’s current rate, and there’s a possibility that the standard corporate tax rate in the United States will be decreased under the Trump administration. The perpetual growth rate remains at 3%, and our valuation model forecasts Nvidia’s performance for the next five years. The long-term debt and cash data have been taken from the latest earnings report, and we update this model when Nvidia is trading at $134.25 per share.The discount rate in our valuation model is 9.84%. We figured it out by calculating Nvidia’s after-tax cost of debt and cost of equity. To figure out the cost of debt, we mostly used Nvidia’s TTM data. To figure out the cost of equity, we used the risk-free rate of 4.40%, beta of 1.66, and the market-return rate of 7.69%. We then weighted Nvidia’s debt and equity to arrive at the discount rate.Nvidia’s valuation modelNvidia’s valuation model (Bears of Wall Street)For the forecast table below, we updated the sales growth rate, which is now similar to the overall expectations for the next couple of years. As the table shows, we expect a normalization of the sales growth rate in the following years. The EBIT rate remained the same as before and is similar to the current TTM rate. The tax rate was decreased, and the bottom part of the forecast table mostly remained the same.The assumptions in our forecast table helped us to figure out Nvidia’s enterprise value, which in our case is $2.23 trillion. We then added cash and subtracted debt to arrive at the equity value of $2.26 trillion. Thereafter, we divided Nvidia’s equity value by the number of its outstanding shares and figured out that Nvidia’s intrinsic value is $91.20 per share. The lower tax rate in this updated model is one of the main reasons why the intrinsic value has been higher in comparison to our previous model. However, under the new assumptions, Nvidia’s stock is overvalued by around 32%.Nvidia’s valuation modelNvidia’s valuation model (Bears of Wall Street)Risks To Our Bearish ThesisAlthough we believe that Nvidia’s stock has likely reached its top for now, there are still a couple of potential developments that can undermine our bearish outlook for the company. While we are unlikely to see an aggressive Y/Y growth of sales in the future since the base for comparison has been significantly raised in the last year and a half, that doesn’t mean that the growth will stop. Since there’s a possibility that a chip shortage could last for the next couple of years, there’s a potential that the demand for AI chips will remain for a while. This could result in sales that are higher than the current consensus once the production of Blackwell is ramped up. This could push Nvidia’s stock price higher, like it was a year ago, even if the Y/Y growth rate won’t be as impressive as before.The macro risks could also be overblown, and there’s a possibility that the American economy will grow next year despite the geopolitical uncertainty. This could result in a boost in demand for AI chips and also lead to the growth of Nvidia’s share price.Final ThoughtsIs Nvidia a great business? Yes. Will it continue to grow for years to come? Most likely yes. But the biggest issue at this point is that the rate at which Nvidia is growing is unlikely to be as impressive as before. We believe that a rather tepid forecast for Q4, which failed to meet Wall Street’s relatively high expectations, is one of the main reasons behind the recent decline of Nvidia’s share price.Considering that the stock is already overvalued while challenges for Nvidia continue to increase, it would be tough for the stock to continue to trade at the current relatively high multiples. That is why Nvidia remains a SELL for us, since we believe that its stock has more room to fall.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NVDA":1.1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3592,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":377631316160752,"gmtCreate":1733224759620,"gmtModify":1733230487611,"author":{"id":"3574807189087941","authorId":"3574807189087941","name":"Icywinddale","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/3bd2fbf9d90e26b2f600b2c5d7c54244","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574807189087941","idStr":"3574807189087941"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Who is ‘Trend Force'? Only Chidren believe in this kind stupid news.","listText":"Who is ‘Trend Force'? Only Chidren believe in this kind stupid news.","text":"Who is ‘Trend Force'? Only Chidren believe in this kind stupid news.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/377631316160752","repostId":"1144849219","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1144849219","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1733206383,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1144849219?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2024-12-03 14:13","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Production Hurdles for Nvidia's GB200 Spark Rumors of Microsoft Cutting Orders","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1144849219","media":"Trend Force","summary":"As demand for artificial intelligence continues to surge, the industry’s appetite for high-performance computing chips has grown increasingly intense. According to a report by the Commercial Times, NV","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>As demand for artificial intelligence continues to surge, the industry’s appetite for high-performance computing chips has grown increasingly intense. According to a report by the Commercial Times, NVIDIA’s next-generation Blackwell architecture chip, the GB200, has encountered new technical hurdles in its mass production plans. In response, CSP provider Microsoft is reportedly scaling back its orders.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/1d68eeb02c6b163c51fbae9253b663f6\" alt=\"NVIDIA Blackwell\" title=\"NVIDIA Blackwell\" tg-width=\"624\" tg-height=\"351\"/><span>NVIDIA Blackwell</span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Sources within the supply chain cited by Commercial Times reveal that the issue lies in the backplane connection design. The testing yield for cartridge connectors provided by U.S. Tier-1 supplier Amphenol has been suboptimal, potentially delaying mass production until March 2025.</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">The GB200 chips employ TSMC’s cutting-edge CoWoS-L advanced packaging technology, incorporating a highly complex cabinet design. However, this complexity has led to various challenges, including overheating in chip design, leakage issues in UQDs, and now, insufficient yield rates for copper cables. While NVIDIA announced during its recent earnings call that Blackwell production is fully underway, supply constraints remain a pressing issue that the company is working to resolve with its partners.</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">The same report, citing supply chain sources, attributes the issue to a newly developed cartridge connector module. The significant specification upgrade of the GB200 has increased production complexity, resulting in poor yield rates and failed testing, creating a major bottleneck.</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">NVIDIA is actively seeking alternative suppliers, but issues such as patent restrictions and capacity ramp-up delays are expected to prolong resolution efforts. While the report notes that chip production schedules remain unaffected, supply chain checks indicate that Microsoft has already cut its orders for NVIDIA by 40%, reallocating some to the GB300 chips set for release in mid-2025.</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1724652185079","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Production Hurdles for Nvidia's GB200 Spark Rumors of Microsoft Cutting Orders</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nProduction Hurdles for Nvidia's GB200 Spark Rumors of Microsoft Cutting Orders\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-12-03 14:13 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.trendforce.com/news/2024/12/02/news-production-hurdles-for-gb200-spark-rumors-of-microsoft-cutting-orders/><strong>Trend Force</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>As demand for artificial intelligence continues to surge, the industry’s appetite for high-performance computing chips has grown increasingly intense. According to a report by the Commercial Times, ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.trendforce.com/news/2024/12/02/news-production-hurdles-for-gb200-spark-rumors-of-microsoft-cutting-orders/\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NVDA":"英伟达"},"source_url":"https://www.trendforce.com/news/2024/12/02/news-production-hurdles-for-gb200-spark-rumors-of-microsoft-cutting-orders/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1144849219","content_text":"As demand for artificial intelligence continues to surge, the industry’s appetite for high-performance computing chips has grown increasingly intense. According to a report by the Commercial Times, NVIDIA’s next-generation Blackwell architecture chip, the GB200, has encountered new technical hurdles in its mass production plans. In response, CSP provider Microsoft is reportedly scaling back its orders.NVIDIA BlackwellSources within the supply chain cited by Commercial Times reveal that the issue lies in the backplane connection design. The testing yield for cartridge connectors provided by U.S. Tier-1 supplier Amphenol has been suboptimal, potentially delaying mass production until March 2025.The GB200 chips employ TSMC’s cutting-edge CoWoS-L advanced packaging technology, incorporating a highly complex cabinet design. However, this complexity has led to various challenges, including overheating in chip design, leakage issues in UQDs, and now, insufficient yield rates for copper cables. While NVIDIA announced during its recent earnings call that Blackwell production is fully underway, supply constraints remain a pressing issue that the company is working to resolve with its partners.The same report, citing supply chain sources, attributes the issue to a newly developed cartridge connector module. The significant specification upgrade of the GB200 has increased production complexity, resulting in poor yield rates and failed testing, creating a major bottleneck.NVIDIA is actively seeking alternative suppliers, but issues such as patent restrictions and capacity ramp-up delays are expected to prolong resolution efforts. While the report notes that chip production schedules remain unaffected, supply chain checks indicate that Microsoft has already cut its orders for NVIDIA by 40%, reallocating some to the GB300 chips set for release in mid-2025.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NVDA":1.1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2269,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":373543719842000,"gmtCreate":1732237062466,"gmtModify":1732239466422,"author":{"id":"3574807189087941","authorId":"3574807189087941","name":"Icywinddale","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/3bd2fbf9d90e26b2f600b2c5d7c54244","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574807189087941","idStr":"3574807189087941"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Now we know why democrats lost the election.","listText":"Now we know why democrats lost the election.","text":"Now we know why democrats lost the election.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/373543719842000","repostId":"2485444956","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2485444956","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Dow Jones publishes the world’s most trusted business news and financial information in a variety of media.","home_visible":0,"media_name":"Dow Jones","id":"106","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99"},"pubTimestamp":1732232749,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2485444956?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2024-11-22 07:45","market":"hk","language":"en","title":"The DOJ-Google Fight Comes Into Focus. Why It's Finally Hitting Alphabet's Stock","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2485444956","media":"Dow Jones","summary":"The U.S. Department of Justice has aggressively pursued Google as a monopolist in recent years, going back to the first Trump administration. And it's gotten a federal judge to rule in its favor.But the DOJ's full intentions weren't fully clear until late last night when the department filed specific remedies that it would like to see the U.S. District judge impose. The DOJ is out for a pound of flesh.An end to search payments: The payments that Google makes to be the default on mobile devices were at the heart of the DOJ's case. Most prominent among these are Google's payouts to Apple, which were pegged at $20 billion in 2022 during the trail. That number represented 16% of Google's cost-of-revenue. But they're also material to Apple, comprising 5% of its 2022 revenue. Assuming that stream of payments all falls to the bottom line, it would have been roughly 21% of Apple's net income that year.The ban goes beyond third-party payments. The DOJ has said it wants to stop Google from using","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>The U.S. Department of Justice has aggressively pursued Google as a monopolist in recent years, going back to the first Trump administration. And it&#39;s gotten a federal judge to rule in its favor.</p><p>But the DOJ&#39;s full intentions weren&#39;t fully clear until late last night when the department filed specific remedies that it would like to see the U.S. District judge impose. The DOJ is out for a pound of flesh.</p><p>While media reports had telegraphed the government&#39;s demand to sever Chrome and Android from Google, the filing went much further. The government has a set of demands that go deeply into the way Google does business, and it seems to be spooking investors. Until now, shares of Google-parent Alphabet have largely escaped regulatory worry. But on Thursday, the stock was down 4.7%.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/2347baa2536c44f072e18ffba04106cc\" tg-width=\"790\" tg-height=\"845\"/></p><p>Here&#39;s why investors are nervous:</p><p>An end to search payments: The payments that Google makes to be the default on mobile devices were at the heart of the DOJ&#39;s case. Most prominent among these are Google&#39;s payouts to Apple, which were pegged at $20 billion in 2022 during the trail. That number represented 16% of Google&#39;s cost-of-revenue. But they&#39;re also material to Apple, comprising 5% of its 2022 revenue. Assuming that stream of payments all falls to the bottom line, it would have been roughly 21% of Apple&#39;s net income that year.</p><p>It&#39;s not clear how Apple would replace that income, though, for now investors don&#39;t seem particularly worried. Apple shares were up slightly on Wednesday.</p><p>Google also makes payments to Android smartphone providers to ensure its software is preloaded on phones, and that its search is the default option. If the DOJ gets its way, those payments would also be banned.</p><p>These payments to the smartphone makers and others are what Google calls its &#34;traffic acquisition costs.&#34; They totaled $40 billion in the first nine months of 2024, or 38% of Google&#39;s cost of revenue. If the company was banned from making these payments, Alphabet&#39;s gross margins would rise substantially immediately. On the downside, without the payments, Google could lose search market share, thereby limiting advertising revenue down the road. That impact is long-term and uncertain.</p><p>The ban goes beyond third-party payments. The DOJ has said it wants to stop Google from using its search engine as the default option on its own line of Pixel smartphones.</p><p>The DOJ wants the keys to the castle: The DOJ&#39;s proposed remedy would force Google to share its most important data with rivals, including well-heeled ones like Microsoft. One of Google&#39;s primary advantages would be lost -- its treasure trove of exclusive data, including its search index, ad data, and user data. These large data sets are the foundation of Google&#39;s success.</p><p>The Enforcement: Perhaps the most intrusive part of the proposal is the DOJ&#39;s recommendation to create a technical committee that would oversee Google&#39;s compliance with the judge&#39;s ruling. The committee would be composed of five members, with a nomination process that almost guarantees the government would control a majority of the committee.</p><p>The group would have broad powers to oversee Google, including interviewing employees, and accessing all documents, servers, and employee devices on request. The committee would also get to see Google&#39;s source code and algorithms, Google&#39;s most prized intellectual property.</p><p>If the DOJ gets its way, most of the remedies would be in place for 10 years.</p><p>On Thursday, Google had a blunt response to the government&#39;s proposals: &#34;DOJ had a chance to propose remedies related to the issue in this case, &#34; the company said in a blog post. &#34;Instead, DOJ chose to push a radical interventionist agenda that would harm Americans and America&#39;s global technology leadership.&#34;</p><p>Next up: The court is scheduled to decide on the penalty phase of the Google trial in April, with a final ruling due in August. U.S. District Judge Amit Mehta could choose to reject some or all of the DOJ&#39;s suggested remedies.</p><p>Any actual enforcement could take years to play out. Google has already declared that it will appeal, and Mehta could decide to stay any remedies during the appeal, a process that could stretch out for years.</p><p>The wild card: In the meantime, there is a new administration coming to the White House in January, and new appointees at the DOJ. Jonathan Kanter, the DOJ&#39;s lead on its cases against Google, will likely be replaced. But it&#39;s important to remember that this case originated in 2020 under the first Trump administration and it includes 49 states as co-plaintiffs. Most of these states have Republican Attorneys General.</p><p>No one knows how a new DOJ would handle the case.</p><p>Many on Wall Street remain doubtful the DOJ&#39;s proposal will come to fruition.</p><p>&#34;We do not see a breakup in the next few years,&#34; Dan Ives of Wedbush told Barron&#39;s on Thursday. &#34;We see business model tweaks and also a much different tone from the Trump administration around Big Tech on the horizon.&#34;</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The DOJ-Google Fight Comes Into Focus. Why It's Finally Hitting Alphabet's Stock</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe DOJ-Google Fight Comes Into Focus. Why It's Finally Hitting Alphabet's Stock\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Dow Jones </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2024-11-22 07:45</p>\n</div>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>The U.S. Department of Justice has aggressively pursued Google as a monopolist in recent years, going back to the first Trump administration. And it&#39;s gotten a federal judge to rule in its favor.</p><p>But the DOJ&#39;s full intentions weren&#39;t fully clear until late last night when the department filed specific remedies that it would like to see the U.S. District judge impose. The DOJ is out for a pound of flesh.</p><p>While media reports had telegraphed the government&#39;s demand to sever Chrome and Android from Google, the filing went much further. The government has a set of demands that go deeply into the way Google does business, and it seems to be spooking investors. Until now, shares of Google-parent Alphabet have largely escaped regulatory worry. But on Thursday, the stock was down 4.7%.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/2347baa2536c44f072e18ffba04106cc\" tg-width=\"790\" tg-height=\"845\"/></p><p>Here&#39;s why investors are nervous:</p><p>An end to search payments: The payments that Google makes to be the default on mobile devices were at the heart of the DOJ&#39;s case. Most prominent among these are Google&#39;s payouts to Apple, which were pegged at $20 billion in 2022 during the trail. That number represented 16% of Google&#39;s cost-of-revenue. But they&#39;re also material to Apple, comprising 5% of its 2022 revenue. Assuming that stream of payments all falls to the bottom line, it would have been roughly 21% of Apple&#39;s net income that year.</p><p>It&#39;s not clear how Apple would replace that income, though, for now investors don&#39;t seem particularly worried. Apple shares were up slightly on Wednesday.</p><p>Google also makes payments to Android smartphone providers to ensure its software is preloaded on phones, and that its search is the default option. If the DOJ gets its way, those payments would also be banned.</p><p>These payments to the smartphone makers and others are what Google calls its &#34;traffic acquisition costs.&#34; They totaled $40 billion in the first nine months of 2024, or 38% of Google&#39;s cost of revenue. If the company was banned from making these payments, Alphabet&#39;s gross margins would rise substantially immediately. On the downside, without the payments, Google could lose search market share, thereby limiting advertising revenue down the road. That impact is long-term and uncertain.</p><p>The ban goes beyond third-party payments. The DOJ has said it wants to stop Google from using its search engine as the default option on its own line of Pixel smartphones.</p><p>The DOJ wants the keys to the castle: The DOJ&#39;s proposed remedy would force Google to share its most important data with rivals, including well-heeled ones like Microsoft. One of Google&#39;s primary advantages would be lost -- its treasure trove of exclusive data, including its search index, ad data, and user data. These large data sets are the foundation of Google&#39;s success.</p><p>The Enforcement: Perhaps the most intrusive part of the proposal is the DOJ&#39;s recommendation to create a technical committee that would oversee Google&#39;s compliance with the judge&#39;s ruling. The committee would be composed of five members, with a nomination process that almost guarantees the government would control a majority of the committee.</p><p>The group would have broad powers to oversee Google, including interviewing employees, and accessing all documents, servers, and employee devices on request. The committee would also get to see Google&#39;s source code and algorithms, Google&#39;s most prized intellectual property.</p><p>If the DOJ gets its way, most of the remedies would be in place for 10 years.</p><p>On Thursday, Google had a blunt response to the government&#39;s proposals: &#34;DOJ had a chance to propose remedies related to the issue in this case, &#34; the company said in a blog post. &#34;Instead, DOJ chose to push a radical interventionist agenda that would harm Americans and America&#39;s global technology leadership.&#34;</p><p>Next up: The court is scheduled to decide on the penalty phase of the Google trial in April, with a final ruling due in August. U.S. District Judge Amit Mehta could choose to reject some or all of the DOJ&#39;s suggested remedies.</p><p>Any actual enforcement could take years to play out. Google has already declared that it will appeal, and Mehta could decide to stay any remedies during the appeal, a process that could stretch out for years.</p><p>The wild card: In the meantime, there is a new administration coming to the White House in January, and new appointees at the DOJ. Jonathan Kanter, the DOJ&#39;s lead on its cases against Google, will likely be replaced. But it&#39;s important to remember that this case originated in 2020 under the first Trump administration and it includes 49 states as co-plaintiffs. Most of these states have Republican Attorneys General.</p><p>No one knows how a new DOJ would handle the case.</p><p>Many on Wall Street remain doubtful the DOJ&#39;s proposal will come to fruition.</p><p>&#34;We do not see a breakup in the next few years,&#34; Dan Ives of Wedbush told Barron&#39;s on Thursday. &#34;We see business model tweaks and also a much different tone from the Trump administration around Big Tech on the horizon.&#34;</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"LU1935043536.SGD":"MANULIFE GF GLOBAL MULTI-ASSET DIVERSIFIED INCOME \"AA\" (SGDHDG) INC A","SG9999015986.USD":"LIONGLOBAL DISRUPTIVE INNOVATION \"I\" (USD) ACC","LU1803068979.SGD":"FTIF - Franklin Technology A (acc) SGD-H1","LU2236285917.USD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL INCOME \"AMG\" (USD) INC","LU0077335932.USD":"FIDELITY AMERICAN GROWTH \"A\" INC","LU0061474960.USD":"天利环球焦点基金AU Acc","LU0348723411.USD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL HI-TECH GROWTH \"A\" (USD) INC","IE00BLSP4239.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - Tactical Dividend Income A Mdis USD Plus","LU0994945656.USD":"NINETY ONE GSF GLOBAL FRANCHISE \"A\" (USD) INC 2","LU1069347547.HKD":"AB SICAV I - GLOBAL VALUE PORTFOLIO \"AD\" (HKD) INC","IE00BLSP4452.SGD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - Tactical Dividend Income A Mdis SGD-H Plus","LU1934455277.USD":"AB SICAV I LOW VOLATILITY TOTAL RETURN EQUITY PORT \"AD\" (USD) INC","LU0198837287.USD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY SICAV - USA GROWTH \"P\" (USD) ACC","IE0004086264.USD":"BNY MELLON GLOBAL OPPORTUNITIES \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE00B3S45H60.SGD":"Neuberger Berman US Multicap Opportunities A Acc SGD-H","LU2065171311.SGD":"M&G (LUX) GLOBAL MAXIMA \"A\" (SGD) ACC","SG9999000418.SGD":"Aberdeen Standard Global Technology SGD","LU0985320562.USD":"NORDEA 1 GLOBAL STARS EQUITY \"BP\" (USD) ACC","LU1116320737.USD":"BGF SYSTEMATIC GLOBAL ENHANCED EQUITY YIELD \"A6\" (USD) INC","LU1934455194.USD":"AB SICAV I LOW VOLATILITY TOTAL RETURN EQUITY PORT \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0068578508.USD":"First Eagle Amundi International Cl AU-C USD","LU0072462426.USD":"贝莱德全球配置 A2","LU1435385759.SGD":"Natixis Loomis Sayles US Growth Equity RA SGD-H","LU2756315664.SGD":"ALLIANZ INCOME AND GROWTH \"AMI\" (SGDHDG) INC","LU1815333072.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) GLOBAL FOCUS \"AUP\" (USD) INC","AAPL":"苹果","LU2125154778.USD":"ALLSPRING GLOBAL EQUITY ENHANCED INCOME \"A\" (USD) INC","LU0949170426.SGD":"Blackrock Global Multi-Asset Income A6 SGD-H","LU2054465674.USD":"UBS (LUX) KEY SELEC SICAV DIGITAL TRANSFORMATION T \"P\" (USD) ACC","SG9999001424.SGD":"United E-Commerce Fund SGD","LU0029864427.USD":"TEMPLETON GLOBAL \"A\" (USD) INC","BK4561":"索罗斯持仓","MSFT":"微软","SG9999018857.SGD":"United Global Quality Growth Fd Cl Acc SGD-H","LU0511384066.AUD":"SUSTAINABLE GLOBAL THEMATIC PORTFOLIO \"A\" (AUDHDG) ACC","LU2265009873.SGD":"Eastspring Investments - Global Growth Equity AS SGD-H","LU1852331112.SGD":"Blackrock World Technology Fund A2 SGD-H","IE00BSNM7G36.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN SYSTEMATIC GLOBAL SUSTAINABLE VALUE \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE0003U64NQ7.SGD":"PIMCO BALANCED INCOME AND GROWTH \"M\" (SGDHDG) ACC","LU0784384876.USD":"Blackrock Global Multi-Asset Income A6 USD","LU2458330169.SGD":"FRANKLIN SHARIAH TECHNOLOGY \"A\" (SGD) ACC","IE0004445239.USD":"JANUS HENDERSON US FORTY \"A2\" (USD) ACC","LU1935042488.USD":"MANULIFE GF GLOBAL MULTI-ASSET DIVERSIFIED INCOME  \"AA\" (USD) INC"},"source_url":"https://dowjonesnews.com/newdjn/logon.aspx?AL=N","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2485444956","content_text":"The U.S. Department of Justice has aggressively pursued Google as a monopolist in recent years, going back to the first Trump administration. And it's gotten a federal judge to rule in its favor.But the DOJ's full intentions weren't fully clear until late last night when the department filed specific remedies that it would like to see the U.S. District judge impose. The DOJ is out for a pound of flesh.While media reports had telegraphed the government's demand to sever Chrome and Android from Google, the filing went much further. The government has a set of demands that go deeply into the way Google does business, and it seems to be spooking investors. Until now, shares of Google-parent Alphabet have largely escaped regulatory worry. But on Thursday, the stock was down 4.7%.Here's why investors are nervous:An end to search payments: The payments that Google makes to be the default on mobile devices were at the heart of the DOJ's case. Most prominent among these are Google's payouts to Apple, which were pegged at $20 billion in 2022 during the trail. That number represented 16% of Google's cost-of-revenue. But they're also material to Apple, comprising 5% of its 2022 revenue. Assuming that stream of payments all falls to the bottom line, it would have been roughly 21% of Apple's net income that year.It's not clear how Apple would replace that income, though, for now investors don't seem particularly worried. Apple shares were up slightly on Wednesday.Google also makes payments to Android smartphone providers to ensure its software is preloaded on phones, and that its search is the default option. If the DOJ gets its way, those payments would also be banned.These payments to the smartphone makers and others are what Google calls its \"traffic acquisition costs.\" They totaled $40 billion in the first nine months of 2024, or 38% of Google's cost of revenue. If the company was banned from making these payments, Alphabet's gross margins would rise substantially immediately. On the downside, without the payments, Google could lose search market share, thereby limiting advertising revenue down the road. That impact is long-term and uncertain.The ban goes beyond third-party payments. The DOJ has said it wants to stop Google from using its search engine as the default option on its own line of Pixel smartphones.The DOJ wants the keys to the castle: The DOJ's proposed remedy would force Google to share its most important data with rivals, including well-heeled ones like Microsoft. One of Google's primary advantages would be lost -- its treasure trove of exclusive data, including its search index, ad data, and user data. These large data sets are the foundation of Google's success.The Enforcement: Perhaps the most intrusive part of the proposal is the DOJ's recommendation to create a technical committee that would oversee Google's compliance with the judge's ruling. The committee would be composed of five members, with a nomination process that almost guarantees the government would control a majority of the committee.The group would have broad powers to oversee Google, including interviewing employees, and accessing all documents, servers, and employee devices on request. The committee would also get to see Google's source code and algorithms, Google's most prized intellectual property.If the DOJ gets its way, most of the remedies would be in place for 10 years.On Thursday, Google had a blunt response to the government's proposals: \"DOJ had a chance to propose remedies related to the issue in this case, \" the company said in a blog post. \"Instead, DOJ chose to push a radical interventionist agenda that would harm Americans and America's global technology leadership.\"Next up: The court is scheduled to decide on the penalty phase of the Google trial in April, with a final ruling due in August. U.S. District Judge Amit Mehta could choose to reject some or all of the DOJ's suggested remedies.Any actual enforcement could take years to play out. Google has already declared that it will appeal, and Mehta could decide to stay any remedies during the appeal, a process that could stretch out for years.The wild card: In the meantime, there is a new administration coming to the White House in January, and new appointees at the DOJ. Jonathan Kanter, the DOJ's lead on its cases against Google, will likely be replaced. But it's important to remember that this case originated in 2020 under the first Trump administration and it includes 49 states as co-plaintiffs. Most of these states have Republican Attorneys General.No one knows how a new DOJ would handle the case.Many on Wall Street remain doubtful the DOJ's proposal will come to fruition.\"We do not see a breakup in the next few years,\" Dan Ives of Wedbush told Barron's on Thursday. \"We see business model tweaks and also a much different tone from the Trump administration around Big Tech on the horizon.\"","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9,"MSFT":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3719,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":373241717743784,"gmtCreate":1732152928778,"gmtModify":1732152932348,"author":{"id":"3574807189087941","authorId":"3574807189087941","name":"Icywinddale","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/3bd2fbf9d90e26b2f600b2c5d7c54244","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574807189087941","idStr":"3574807189087941"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"nonsense","listText":"nonsense","text":"nonsense","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/373241717743784","repostId":"2485567109","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3259,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":365986993258656,"gmtCreate":1730352866695,"gmtModify":1730352870520,"author":{"id":"3574807189087941","authorId":"3574807189087941","name":"Icywinddale","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/3bd2fbf9d90e26b2f600b2c5d7c54244","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574807189087941","idStr":"3574807189087941"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Low level&nbsp;","listText":"Low level&nbsp;","text":"Low level","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/365986993258656","repostId":"1107275997","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2695,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":353935568728112,"gmtCreate":1727418140095,"gmtModify":1727418991512,"author":{"id":"3574807189087941","authorId":"3574807189087941","name":"Icywinddale","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/3bd2fbf9d90e26b2f600b2c5d7c54244","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574807189087941","idStr":"3574807189087941"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Sucker, did you see MU earning？can't believe such low level article was here.","listText":"Sucker, did you see MU earning？can't believe such low level article was here.","text":"Sucker, did you see MU earning？can't believe such low level article was here.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/353935568728112","repostId":"2470763038","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2913,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":352503559565592,"gmtCreate":1727100416096,"gmtModify":1727100420984,"author":{"id":"3574807189087941","authorId":"3574807189087941","name":"Icywinddale","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/3bd2fbf9d90e26b2f600b2c5d7c54244","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574807189087941","idStr":"3574807189087941"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Take a look at what this guy say about NVDA, he is just a joke. Never listen to him.","listText":"Take a look at what this guy say about NVDA, he is just a joke. Never listen to him.","text":"Take a look at what this guy say about NVDA, he is just a joke. Never listen to him.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/352503559565592","repostId":"2469136521","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2469136521","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Dow Jones publishes the world’s most trusted business news and financial information in a variety of media.","home_visible":0,"media_name":"Dow Jones","id":"106","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99"},"pubTimestamp":1727095500,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2469136521?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2024-09-23 20:45","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Microsoft’s Stock Hit with a Rare Downgrade. Why This Analyst Says Stop Buying","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2469136521","media":"Dow Jones","summary":"D.A. Davidson’s Gil Luria is now one of the 5% of analysts covering Microsoft who aren’t bullishMicrosoft’s stock gets downgraded to a rare neutral rating due to concerns it’s losing ground to Amazon and Alphabet.Shares of Microsoft Corp. leaned lower in early Monday trading, after D.A. Davidson’s Gil Luria became one of the rare Wall Street analysts who isn’t enthusiastic about the software giant and artificial-intelligence play.Luria cut his rating on the stock to neutral, after being at buy s","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>D.A. Davidson’s Gil Luria is now one of the 5% of analysts covering Microsoft who aren’t bullish</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/edf1ac2bdff5a271ce6efc5470f3cf89\" alt=\"Microsoft’s stock gets downgraded to a rare neutral rating due to concerns it’s losing ground to Amazon and Alphabet.\" title=\"Microsoft’s stock gets downgraded to a rare neutral rating due to concerns it’s losing ground to Amazon and Alphabet.\" tg-width=\"926\" tg-height=\"614\"/><span>Microsoft’s stock gets downgraded to a rare neutral rating due to concerns it’s losing ground to Amazon and Alphabet.</span></p><p>Shares of Microsoft Corp. leaned lower in early Monday trading, after D.A. Davidson’s Gil Luria became one of the rare Wall Street analysts who isn’t enthusiastic about the software giant and artificial-intelligence play.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Luria cut his rating on the stock to neutral, after being at buy since January 2023. He kept his price target at $475, which still implies a 9.1% upside from Friday’s closing price of $435.27.</p><p>The stock slipped 0.4% in premarket trading.</p><p>Luria acknowledged that Microsoft has accelerated growth and expanded margins over the past few quarters, as the company benefited from being the first to embrace and commercialize generative AI. With its early investment in OpenAI, Microsoft’s cloud-computing platform Azure took a “significant lead” over Amazon.com Inc.’s AWS and Alphabet Inc.’s Google Cloud Platform.</p><p>So why is Luria no longer bullish?</p><p>“We believe that Microsoft’s lead is now diminished in both the cloud business and code generation business, which will make it hard for [Microsoft] to continue to outperform,” Luria wrote in a note to clients.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Of the 59 analysts surveyed by FactSet who rate Microsoft’s stock, 56 are bullish, two are now neutral and one is bearish. The average price target on the stock is $497.43.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/c38854602045cd5ef2098e77901085cb\" alt=\"PHOTO: FACTSET\" title=\"PHOTO: FACTSET\" tg-width=\"885\" tg-height=\"411\"/><span>PHOTO: FACTSET</span></p><p>Luria said AWS is now adding nearly as much cloud business as Azure, and GCP has also seen its business accelerate to comparable growth rates as Azure last quarter.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">And importantly, he said D.A. Davidson’s proprietary hyperscaler semiconductor analysis shows that AWS and GCP are far ahead of Microsoft in using their own chips in their data centers, which should give them an advantage over Azure going forward.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Microsoft’s Maia chips are “years behind” those of Amazon and Google. That makes Microsoft reliant on chips made by Nvidia Corp., Luria said, which in turn means Microsoft “will continue to shift wealth from its shareholders to [Nvidia] shareholders.”</p><p>“We believe this means Microsoft has been escalating an arms rate it may not be able to win,” Luria wrote.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">He noted that after margins expanded significantly in the past year, Microsoft expects operating margins to decline in fiscal 2025.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">That’s because Microsoft has to boost the percentage of revenue it allocates for data-center capital expenditures to a higher rate than both Amazon and Google, given its reliance on a third party — Nvidia — for its chips.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Every year that Microsoft “over invests” in its datacenters, at current rates, it will reduce operating margins by at least one percentage point.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">“Microsoft would need to lay off ~10,000 employees for every year of over-investment in order to offset the margin drag,” Luria wrote.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Microsoft’s stock has gained 15.8% year to date through Friday, while Amazon shares have run up 26.1% and Alphabet’s stock has advanced 17.1%. The S&amp;P 500 index has rallied 19.6% this year.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Microsoft’s Stock Hit with a Rare Downgrade. Why This Analyst Says Stop Buying</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMicrosoft’s Stock Hit with a Rare Downgrade. Why This Analyst Says Stop Buying\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Dow Jones </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2024-09-23 20:45</p>\n</div>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>D.A. Davidson’s Gil Luria is now one of the 5% of analysts covering Microsoft who aren’t bullish</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/edf1ac2bdff5a271ce6efc5470f3cf89\" alt=\"Microsoft’s stock gets downgraded to a rare neutral rating due to concerns it’s losing ground to Amazon and Alphabet.\" title=\"Microsoft’s stock gets downgraded to a rare neutral rating due to concerns it’s losing ground to Amazon and Alphabet.\" tg-width=\"926\" tg-height=\"614\"/><span>Microsoft’s stock gets downgraded to a rare neutral rating due to concerns it’s losing ground to Amazon and Alphabet.</span></p><p>Shares of Microsoft Corp. leaned lower in early Monday trading, after D.A. Davidson’s Gil Luria became one of the rare Wall Street analysts who isn’t enthusiastic about the software giant and artificial-intelligence play.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Luria cut his rating on the stock to neutral, after being at buy since January 2023. He kept his price target at $475, which still implies a 9.1% upside from Friday’s closing price of $435.27.</p><p>The stock slipped 0.4% in premarket trading.</p><p>Luria acknowledged that Microsoft has accelerated growth and expanded margins over the past few quarters, as the company benefited from being the first to embrace and commercialize generative AI. With its early investment in OpenAI, Microsoft’s cloud-computing platform Azure took a “significant lead” over Amazon.com Inc.’s AWS and Alphabet Inc.’s Google Cloud Platform.</p><p>So why is Luria no longer bullish?</p><p>“We believe that Microsoft’s lead is now diminished in both the cloud business and code generation business, which will make it hard for [Microsoft] to continue to outperform,” Luria wrote in a note to clients.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Of the 59 analysts surveyed by FactSet who rate Microsoft’s stock, 56 are bullish, two are now neutral and one is bearish. The average price target on the stock is $497.43.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/c38854602045cd5ef2098e77901085cb\" alt=\"PHOTO: FACTSET\" title=\"PHOTO: FACTSET\" tg-width=\"885\" tg-height=\"411\"/><span>PHOTO: FACTSET</span></p><p>Luria said AWS is now adding nearly as much cloud business as Azure, and GCP has also seen its business accelerate to comparable growth rates as Azure last quarter.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">And importantly, he said D.A. Davidson’s proprietary hyperscaler semiconductor analysis shows that AWS and GCP are far ahead of Microsoft in using their own chips in their data centers, which should give them an advantage over Azure going forward.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Microsoft’s Maia chips are “years behind” those of Amazon and Google. That makes Microsoft reliant on chips made by Nvidia Corp., Luria said, which in turn means Microsoft “will continue to shift wealth from its shareholders to [Nvidia] shareholders.”</p><p>“We believe this means Microsoft has been escalating an arms rate it may not be able to win,” Luria wrote.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">He noted that after margins expanded significantly in the past year, Microsoft expects operating margins to decline in fiscal 2025.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">That’s because Microsoft has to boost the percentage of revenue it allocates for data-center capital expenditures to a higher rate than both Amazon and Google, given its reliance on a third party — Nvidia — for its chips.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Every year that Microsoft “over invests” in its datacenters, at current rates, it will reduce operating margins by at least one percentage point.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">“Microsoft would need to lay off ~10,000 employees for every year of over-investment in order to offset the margin drag,” Luria wrote.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Microsoft’s stock has gained 15.8% year to date through Friday, while Amazon shares have run up 26.1% and Alphabet’s stock has advanced 17.1%. The S&amp;P 500 index has rallied 19.6% this year.</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"MSFT":"微软"},"source_url":"https://dowjonesnews.com/newdjn/logon.aspx?AL=N","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2469136521","content_text":"D.A. Davidson’s Gil Luria is now one of the 5% of analysts covering Microsoft who aren’t bullishMicrosoft’s stock gets downgraded to a rare neutral rating due to concerns it’s losing ground to Amazon and Alphabet.Shares of Microsoft Corp. leaned lower in early Monday trading, after D.A. Davidson’s Gil Luria became one of the rare Wall Street analysts who isn’t enthusiastic about the software giant and artificial-intelligence play.Luria cut his rating on the stock to neutral, after being at buy since January 2023. He kept his price target at $475, which still implies a 9.1% upside from Friday’s closing price of $435.27.The stock slipped 0.4% in premarket trading.Luria acknowledged that Microsoft has accelerated growth and expanded margins over the past few quarters, as the company benefited from being the first to embrace and commercialize generative AI. With its early investment in OpenAI, Microsoft’s cloud-computing platform Azure took a “significant lead” over Amazon.com Inc.’s AWS and Alphabet Inc.’s Google Cloud Platform.So why is Luria no longer bullish?“We believe that Microsoft’s lead is now diminished in both the cloud business and code generation business, which will make it hard for [Microsoft] to continue to outperform,” Luria wrote in a note to clients.Of the 59 analysts surveyed by FactSet who rate Microsoft’s stock, 56 are bullish, two are now neutral and one is bearish. The average price target on the stock is $497.43.PHOTO: FACTSETLuria said AWS is now adding nearly as much cloud business as Azure, and GCP has also seen its business accelerate to comparable growth rates as Azure last quarter.And importantly, he said D.A. Davidson’s proprietary hyperscaler semiconductor analysis shows that AWS and GCP are far ahead of Microsoft in using their own chips in their data centers, which should give them an advantage over Azure going forward.Microsoft’s Maia chips are “years behind” those of Amazon and Google. That makes Microsoft reliant on chips made by Nvidia Corp., Luria said, which in turn means Microsoft “will continue to shift wealth from its shareholders to [Nvidia] shareholders.”“We believe this means Microsoft has been escalating an arms rate it may not be able to win,” Luria wrote.He noted that after margins expanded significantly in the past year, Microsoft expects operating margins to decline in fiscal 2025.That’s because Microsoft has to boost the percentage of revenue it allocates for data-center capital expenditures to a higher rate than both Amazon and Google, given its reliance on a third party — Nvidia — for its chips.Every year that Microsoft “over invests” in its datacenters, at current rates, it will reduce operating margins by at least one percentage point.“Microsoft would need to lay off ~10,000 employees for every year of over-investment in order to offset the margin drag,” Luria wrote.Microsoft’s stock has gained 15.8% year to date through Friday, while Amazon shares have run up 26.1% and Alphabet’s stock has advanced 17.1%. The S&P 500 index has rallied 19.6% this year.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"MSFT":1.1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2782,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":352025370411096,"gmtCreate":1726982348711,"gmtModify":1726988736645,"author":{"id":"3574807189087941","authorId":"3574807189087941","name":"Icywinddale","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/3bd2fbf9d90e26b2f600b2c5d7c54244","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574807189087941","idStr":"3574807189087941"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Brain-damaged articles","listText":"Brain-damaged articles","text":"Brain-damaged articles","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/352025370411096","repostId":"2469511719","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2469511719","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Dow Jones publishes the world’s most trusted business news and financial information in a variety of media.","home_visible":0,"media_name":"Dow Jones","id":"106","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99"},"pubTimestamp":1726962870,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2469511719?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2024-09-22 07:54","market":"nz","language":"en","title":"Sorry, the Fed Can't Save Us From a Bear Market","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2469511719","media":"Dow Jones","summary":"Wall Street commentary around this week's Fed rate cut could have filled a very long and boring book, but much of what you need to know about its effect on the stock market can be found in a movie rarely linked with monetary policy: \"The Wizard of Oz.\". The great and powerful man behind the central bank curtain, Jerome Powell, really can't do as much as people think to keep their portfolios from shriveling if the wheels are already starting to come off the economy. Stocks' initial reaction to Wednesday's cut was exuberant. That often proves to be a head fake, though -- we still don't know how this movie ends.Take the start of the rate-cutting cycle in 2007 -- one that coincidentally began on the same day of the year, the same starting federal-funds rate, and was for an identical amount, half a percent  -- as Wednesday's move. The effect was electric: The Dow Jones Industrial Average had its largest gain in more than four years, rising 336 points, the equivalent of about 1,000 points to","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Wall Street commentary around this week&#39;s Fed rate cut could have filled a very long and boring book, but much of what you need to know about its effect on the stock market can be found in a movie rarely linked with monetary policy: &#34;The Wizard of Oz.&#34;</p><p>The great and powerful man behind the central bank curtain, Jerome Powell, really can&#39;t do as much as people think to keep their portfolios from shriveling if the wheels are already starting to come off the economy. Stocks&#39; initial reaction to Wednesday&#39;s cut was exuberant. That often proves to be a head fake, though -- we still don&#39;t know how this movie ends.</p><p>Take the start of the rate-cutting cycle in 2007 -- one that coincidentally began on the same day of the year, the same starting federal-funds rate, and was for an identical amount, half a percent (50 basis points) -- as Wednesday&#39;s move. The effect was electric: The Dow Jones Industrial Average had its largest gain in more than four years, rising 336 points, the equivalent of about 1,000 points today. Lehman Brothers shares were among the top performers, surging 10%.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/87332df9d93b9dea02c121a049013aad\" tg-width=\"931\" tg-height=\"768\"/></p><p>But, as we know now, stocks were just three weeks from their bull-market peak, a recession would begin in January 2008, and Lehman would collapse less than a year later in the largest-ever U.S. bankruptcy. By that time, the Fed had cut rates six more times -- moves of 25, 25, 75, 50, 75 and 25 basis points, in that order. The moves took rates to 2%, their lowest in nearly four years. In the two months following the Lehman panic, the Fed made three more steep cuts, slashing rates to zero (technically a range of 0% to 0.25%) for the first time ever.</p><p>Stocks surged then too, with the benchmark S&amp;P 500 jumping 4.7%. The Dow&#39;s gain of 360 points would be nearly 1,700 today. Yet they erased all of that day&#39;s rally in less than a week and would go on to shed another quarter of their value before bottoming in March 2009.</p><p>To be clear, the conditions that existed during the housing crisis were extreme, sparking the worst U.S. economic downturn since the Great Depression. Extreme events are by definition rare, and most predictions of doom are false alarms. More money is lost bracing for bear markets than in them, even when they really happen.</p><p>Yet there have been 22 bear markets in the past century for all sorts of reasons. Economists who dismiss the possibility of a tumble just because specific excesses such as toxic subprime loans as in the mid-aughts or ludicrous dot-com valuations akin to the late &#39;90s don&#39;t exist today could wind up with egg on their faces. Like generals fighting the last war, they rely too much on their lived experience.</p><p>In a classic of the genre, then Bear Stearns chief economist David Malpass wrote a Wall Street Journal op-ed, &#34;Don&#39;t Panic About the Credit Market,&#34; in August 2007 after a two-month retreat in stock prices.</p><p>&#34;Unlike the 1998 seizure in credit markets to which many are now drawing comparisons, reservoirs of global liquidity are full to overflowing, not empty as they were that year,&#34; he wrote. &#34;The deep 1997-1998 Asian crisis has been replaced with an all-cylinder boom.&#34;</p><p>Despite five subsequent Fed rate cuts, his employer was among the first high-profile casualties of the credit meltdown. Two months after September 2007&#39;s rate-cutting cycle had begun, the mood already had darkened, yet a Wall Street Journal survey of 54 economists that month put the odds of any U.S. recession in the following 12 months at just one-third.</p><p>The chairman of the Fed doesn&#39;t have a magic wand to levitate an economy that is already stumbling or a stock market about to do the same. Goldman Sachs strategist David Kostin noted recently that &#34;the trajectory of growth is a more important driver for stocks than the speed of rate cuts.&#34;</p><p>His research shows that, if the economy has already been headed into a recession before the first rate cut, then the median path of the S&amp;P 500 has been to lose around 14% of its value in the coming year. If it wasn&#39;t headed into a recession, then it is the inverse. Lower rates most certainly matter for bond investors. They might only blunt an already-unfolding swoon for stocks, though, since they take so long to filter through to companies and consumers.</p><p>Claims that the U.S. economy could soon contract aren&#39;t very convincing at the moment, and a sharp pullback of a third or more in stocks would be unusual unless the economy stalls. That helps explain why stocks are near record highs and the usual signs of market caution so subdued. But so does the misguided belief that Fed cuts are themselves a reason to remain calm and keep buying.</p><p>There are smart people on the fringes -- they usually are at this stage -- warning about excesses in private credit and commercial real estate or the effect of China&#39;s alarming slowdown on the world economy. U.S. stocks have rarely been so expensive, concentrated or dependent on a single theme -- the promise of AI. And government indebtedness around the world has never been as high, making the response to the next recession trickier.</p><p>We&#39;re not in Kansas any more.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Sorry, the Fed Can't Save Us From a Bear Market</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSorry, the Fed Can't Save Us From a Bear Market\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Dow Jones </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2024-09-22 07:54</p>\n</div>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>Wall Street commentary around this week&#39;s Fed rate cut could have filled a very long and boring book, but much of what you need to know about its effect on the stock market can be found in a movie rarely linked with monetary policy: &#34;The Wizard of Oz.&#34;</p><p>The great and powerful man behind the central bank curtain, Jerome Powell, really can&#39;t do as much as people think to keep their portfolios from shriveling if the wheels are already starting to come off the economy. Stocks&#39; initial reaction to Wednesday&#39;s cut was exuberant. That often proves to be a head fake, though -- we still don&#39;t know how this movie ends.</p><p>Take the start of the rate-cutting cycle in 2007 -- one that coincidentally began on the same day of the year, the same starting federal-funds rate, and was for an identical amount, half a percent (50 basis points) -- as Wednesday&#39;s move. The effect was electric: The Dow Jones Industrial Average had its largest gain in more than four years, rising 336 points, the equivalent of about 1,000 points today. Lehman Brothers shares were among the top performers, surging 10%.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/87332df9d93b9dea02c121a049013aad\" tg-width=\"931\" tg-height=\"768\"/></p><p>But, as we know now, stocks were just three weeks from their bull-market peak, a recession would begin in January 2008, and Lehman would collapse less than a year later in the largest-ever U.S. bankruptcy. By that time, the Fed had cut rates six more times -- moves of 25, 25, 75, 50, 75 and 25 basis points, in that order. The moves took rates to 2%, their lowest in nearly four years. In the two months following the Lehman panic, the Fed made three more steep cuts, slashing rates to zero (technically a range of 0% to 0.25%) for the first time ever.</p><p>Stocks surged then too, with the benchmark S&amp;P 500 jumping 4.7%. The Dow&#39;s gain of 360 points would be nearly 1,700 today. Yet they erased all of that day&#39;s rally in less than a week and would go on to shed another quarter of their value before bottoming in March 2009.</p><p>To be clear, the conditions that existed during the housing crisis were extreme, sparking the worst U.S. economic downturn since the Great Depression. Extreme events are by definition rare, and most predictions of doom are false alarms. More money is lost bracing for bear markets than in them, even when they really happen.</p><p>Yet there have been 22 bear markets in the past century for all sorts of reasons. Economists who dismiss the possibility of a tumble just because specific excesses such as toxic subprime loans as in the mid-aughts or ludicrous dot-com valuations akin to the late &#39;90s don&#39;t exist today could wind up with egg on their faces. Like generals fighting the last war, they rely too much on their lived experience.</p><p>In a classic of the genre, then Bear Stearns chief economist David Malpass wrote a Wall Street Journal op-ed, &#34;Don&#39;t Panic About the Credit Market,&#34; in August 2007 after a two-month retreat in stock prices.</p><p>&#34;Unlike the 1998 seizure in credit markets to which many are now drawing comparisons, reservoirs of global liquidity are full to overflowing, not empty as they were that year,&#34; he wrote. &#34;The deep 1997-1998 Asian crisis has been replaced with an all-cylinder boom.&#34;</p><p>Despite five subsequent Fed rate cuts, his employer was among the first high-profile casualties of the credit meltdown. Two months after September 2007&#39;s rate-cutting cycle had begun, the mood already had darkened, yet a Wall Street Journal survey of 54 economists that month put the odds of any U.S. recession in the following 12 months at just one-third.</p><p>The chairman of the Fed doesn&#39;t have a magic wand to levitate an economy that is already stumbling or a stock market about to do the same. Goldman Sachs strategist David Kostin noted recently that &#34;the trajectory of growth is a more important driver for stocks than the speed of rate cuts.&#34;</p><p>His research shows that, if the economy has already been headed into a recession before the first rate cut, then the median path of the S&amp;P 500 has been to lose around 14% of its value in the coming year. If it wasn&#39;t headed into a recession, then it is the inverse. Lower rates most certainly matter for bond investors. They might only blunt an already-unfolding swoon for stocks, though, since they take so long to filter through to companies and consumers.</p><p>Claims that the U.S. economy could soon contract aren&#39;t very convincing at the moment, and a sharp pullback of a third or more in stocks would be unusual unless the economy stalls. That helps explain why stocks are near record highs and the usual signs of market caution so subdued. But so does the misguided belief that Fed cuts are themselves a reason to remain calm and keep buying.</p><p>There are smart people on the fringes -- they usually are at this stage -- warning about excesses in private credit and commercial real estate or the effect of China&#39;s alarming slowdown on the world economy. U.S. stocks have rarely been so expensive, concentrated or dependent on a single theme -- the promise of AI. And government indebtedness around the world has never been as high, making the response to the next recession trickier.</p><p>We&#39;re not in Kansas any more.</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://dowjonesnews.com/newdjn/logon.aspx?AL=N","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2469511719","content_text":"Wall Street commentary around this week's Fed rate cut could have filled a very long and boring book, but much of what you need to know about its effect on the stock market can be found in a movie rarely linked with monetary policy: \"The Wizard of Oz.\"The great and powerful man behind the central bank curtain, Jerome Powell, really can't do as much as people think to keep their portfolios from shriveling if the wheels are already starting to come off the economy. Stocks' initial reaction to Wednesday's cut was exuberant. That often proves to be a head fake, though -- we still don't know how this movie ends.Take the start of the rate-cutting cycle in 2007 -- one that coincidentally began on the same day of the year, the same starting federal-funds rate, and was for an identical amount, half a percent (50 basis points) -- as Wednesday's move. The effect was electric: The Dow Jones Industrial Average had its largest gain in more than four years, rising 336 points, the equivalent of about 1,000 points today. Lehman Brothers shares were among the top performers, surging 10%.But, as we know now, stocks were just three weeks from their bull-market peak, a recession would begin in January 2008, and Lehman would collapse less than a year later in the largest-ever U.S. bankruptcy. By that time, the Fed had cut rates six more times -- moves of 25, 25, 75, 50, 75 and 25 basis points, in that order. The moves took rates to 2%, their lowest in nearly four years. In the two months following the Lehman panic, the Fed made three more steep cuts, slashing rates to zero (technically a range of 0% to 0.25%) for the first time ever.Stocks surged then too, with the benchmark S&P 500 jumping 4.7%. The Dow's gain of 360 points would be nearly 1,700 today. Yet they erased all of that day's rally in less than a week and would go on to shed another quarter of their value before bottoming in March 2009.To be clear, the conditions that existed during the housing crisis were extreme, sparking the worst U.S. economic downturn since the Great Depression. Extreme events are by definition rare, and most predictions of doom are false alarms. More money is lost bracing for bear markets than in them, even when they really happen.Yet there have been 22 bear markets in the past century for all sorts of reasons. Economists who dismiss the possibility of a tumble just because specific excesses such as toxic subprime loans as in the mid-aughts or ludicrous dot-com valuations akin to the late '90s don't exist today could wind up with egg on their faces. Like generals fighting the last war, they rely too much on their lived experience.In a classic of the genre, then Bear Stearns chief economist David Malpass wrote a Wall Street Journal op-ed, \"Don't Panic About the Credit Market,\" in August 2007 after a two-month retreat in stock prices.\"Unlike the 1998 seizure in credit markets to which many are now drawing comparisons, reservoirs of global liquidity are full to overflowing, not empty as they were that year,\" he wrote. \"The deep 1997-1998 Asian crisis has been replaced with an all-cylinder boom.\"Despite five subsequent Fed rate cuts, his employer was among the first high-profile casualties of the credit meltdown. Two months after September 2007's rate-cutting cycle had begun, the mood already had darkened, yet a Wall Street Journal survey of 54 economists that month put the odds of any U.S. recession in the following 12 months at just one-third.The chairman of the Fed doesn't have a magic wand to levitate an economy that is already stumbling or a stock market about to do the same. Goldman Sachs strategist David Kostin noted recently that \"the trajectory of growth is a more important driver for stocks than the speed of rate cuts.\"His research shows that, if the economy has already been headed into a recession before the first rate cut, then the median path of the S&P 500 has been to lose around 14% of its value in the coming year. If it wasn't headed into a recession, then it is the inverse. Lower rates most certainly matter for bond investors. They might only blunt an already-unfolding swoon for stocks, though, since they take so long to filter through to companies and consumers.Claims that the U.S. economy could soon contract aren't very convincing at the moment, and a sharp pullback of a third or more in stocks would be unusual unless the economy stalls. That helps explain why stocks are near record highs and the usual signs of market caution so subdued. But so does the misguided belief that Fed cuts are themselves a reason to remain calm and keep buying.There are smart people on the fringes -- they usually are at this stage -- warning about excesses in private credit and commercial real estate or the effect of China's alarming slowdown on the world economy. U.S. stocks have rarely been so expensive, concentrated or dependent on a single theme -- the promise of AI. And government indebtedness around the world has never been as high, making the response to the next recession trickier.We're not in Kansas any more.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"US7Y.BOND":1,".DJI":1.1,"US12M.BOND":1,"US6M.BOND":1,"US5Y.BOND":1,"US912797GW17.BOND":0.6,"US30Y.BOND":1,"US912797HE00.BOND":0.6,"US3Y.BOND":1,"US10Y.BOND":1,".IXIC":1.1,"US2Y.BOND":1,".SPX":1.1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2622,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":9098656424,"gmtCreate":1644120172943,"gmtModify":1676533892418,"author":{"id":"3574807189087941","authorId":"3574807189087941","name":"Icywinddale","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/3bd2fbf9d90e26b2f600b2c5d7c54244","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574807189087941","idStr":"3574807189087941"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"No brain.. take a look at PYPL price. fall like stone.&nbsp;","listText":"No brain.. take a look at PYPL price. fall like stone.&nbsp;","text":"No brain.. take a look at PYPL price. fall like stone.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9098656424","repostId":"2208317024","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2208317024","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1644039774,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2208317024?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-02-05 13:42","market":"us","language":"en","title":"3 No-Brainer Stocks to Buy With $1,000 Right Now","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2208317024","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"These outstanding companies have the potential to generate market-crushing returns.","content":"<div>\n<p>The S&P 500 has had a cold start to the new year, down 6% in the month of January. This situation might be scaring investors out of the market entirely, as the downward trend could continue with ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/02/04/3-no-brainer-stocks-to-buy-with-1000-right-now/\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"fool_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>3 No-Brainer Stocks to Buy With $1,000 Right Now</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n3 No-Brainer Stocks to Buy With $1,000 Right Now\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-02-05 13:42 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/02/04/3-no-brainer-stocks-to-buy-with-1000-right-now/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>The S&P 500 has had a cold start to the new year, down 6% in the month of January. This situation might be scaring investors out of the market entirely, as the downward trend could continue with ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/02/04/3-no-brainer-stocks-to-buy-with-1000-right-now/\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BK4524":"宅经济概念","BK4554":"元宇宙及AR概念","BK4532":"文艺复兴科技持仓","BK4527":"明星科技股","NFLX":"奈飞","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BK4503":"景林资产持仓","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","BK4122":"互联网与直销零售","PYPL":"PayPal","BK4566":"资本集团","LULU":"lululemon athletica","BK4106":"数据处理与外包服务","BK4535":"淡马锡持仓","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","BK4504":"桥水持仓","BK4538":"云计算","BK4108":"电影和娱乐","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","BK4202":"服装、服饰与奢侈品","BK4507":"流媒体概念","AMZN":"亚马逊","BK4551":"寇图资本持仓","BK4561":"索罗斯持仓"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/02/04/3-no-brainer-stocks-to-buy-with-1000-right-now/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2208317024","content_text":"The S&P 500 has had a cold start to the new year, down 6% in the month of January. This situation might be scaring investors out of the market entirely, as the downward trend could continue with uncertainty about inflation, the Fed's pending rate hikes, and the ongoing pandemic adding to the worries. But if you're an investor with a long time horizon, like me, then now could be the perfect time to add fresh capital to your portfolio. When the market seems overly pessimistic and full of fear is usually the best time to be aggressive. With $1,000 to invest, look no further than Lululemon (NASDAQ:LULU), Netflix (NASDAQ:NFLX), and PayPal (NASDAQ:PYPL) as worthy additions to your portfolio. Image source: Getty Images.1. Lululemon Since February 2017, Lululemon's stock has soared 390%, an outstanding investment if you got in at that time. This performance can be attributed to Lululemon's impressive sales and profit growth of 166% and 175%, respectively, over the past five years. Expanding the store footprint, now at 552 locations, also helped. This burgeoning apparel brand sports a better gross margin, at 57.2%, than industry leader Nike. A higher metric generally indicates customers' propensity to pay premium prices for a company's products. In Lululemon's case, having a strong direct-to-consumer presence -- a channel that represented 40% of sales in the most recent quarter -- is crucial for brand relevance. The business first gained popularity as a seller of yoga pants to women, but it has now become a major men's outfitter. The men's segment increased revenue 44% year over year in the fiscal 2021 third quarter, while the women's segment grew 25%. Diversification of revenue sources is a positive sign. Lululemon shares have lost 30% in value over the past three months as the threat of higher interest rates negatively impacts high-multiple, high-growth stocks. Consequently, investors are presented with a great opportunity to buy shares in this thriving retailer at a meaningful pullback. 2. Netflix This top streaming stock reported fourth-quarter 2021 financial results on Jan. 20 that disappointed investors. Management guided to 2.5 million net new subscribers in the current quarter, far less than the 6.9 million Wall Street was expecting. But despite the stock being down 17% since that announcement, Netflix has been a massive winner, rising 200% over the past five years. Quarterly membership growth has certainly been irregular and unpredictable after the pandemic started in the spring of 2020, but the secular shift away from traditional cable TV and toward streaming is not going away. According to data from S&P Global, there were 1.1 billion households worldwide with a cable TV subscription in 2020. This means that Netflix, with its 221.8 million customers today, still has a large runway for expansion in the years ahead.  Billionaire hedge fund manager Bill Ackman, through his firm Pershing Square Capital Management, took advantage of the market souring on Netflix by scooping up 3.1 million shares. His firm is now a top-20 shareholder in the company. Ackman has a proven track record of pouncing on attractive investment opportunities when the time is right. That's a great endorsement for why you might want to consider owning Netflix stock as well.  3. PayPalAnother major historical winner is fintech behemoth PayPal. Its stock has climbed 379% since the business was spun off from eBay in July 2015. PayPal has long been a pioneer in the digital payments space, and it now counts an impressive 426 million active accounts, of which 34 million are merchants. I think there are three main factors that make PayPal a special business. For starters, the company's brand exemplifies a relentless focus on security and ease of use. These characteristics, along with massive scale to the tune of $1.25 trillion in total payment volume in 2021, are probably why e-commerce giant Amazon chose to partner with PayPal's Venmo starting this year. Additionally, PayPal possesses remarkable financial metrics. In 2021, the company's non-generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP) operating margin of 24.8% was stellar. And the business continued to prove that it's a cash machine, generating $5.4 billion in free cash flow during the 12-month period. Lastly, the company is not done growing. Along with the Amazon partnership, initiatives to bolster the PayPal mobile app and an acquisition like that of Japanese buy now, pay later specialist Paidy showcase management's huge ambition to one day have 1 billion daily active users. PayPal's shares are off more than 50% from their recent high set in July 2021. The stock currently trades for a lower and more attractive price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of below 40, making it a solid investment right now.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"PYPL":1,"NFLX":0.6,"AMZN":0.81,"LULU":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":868,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3479274806242608","authorId":"3479274806242608","name":"wubbix","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d0164ea7c27dfdf8c987c88fa9aebdea","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3479274806242608","idStr":"3479274806242608"},"content":"Don't worry, PYPL has a promising future.","text":"Don't worry, PYPL has a promising future.","html":"Don't worry, PYPL has a promising future."},{"author":{"id":"3479274793181513","authorId":"3479274793181513","name":"glintzi","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/916d922cdb12fb6f658dbad7646c76a5","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3479274793181513","idStr":"3479274793181513"},"content":"The decline of PYPL's share price is mainly due to its performance falling short of expectations. Only the market reaction is a little intense.","text":"The decline of PYPL's share price is mainly due to its performance falling short of expectations. Only the market reaction is a little intense.","html":"The decline of PYPL's share price is mainly due to its performance falling short of expectations. Only the market reaction is a little intense."}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":466650324324408,"gmtCreate":1754965957279,"gmtModify":1754969118934,"author":{"id":"3574807189087941","authorId":"3574807189087941","name":"Icywinddale","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/3bd2fbf9d90e26b2f600b2c5d7c54244","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574807189087941","idStr":"3574807189087941"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Musk is a jerk. He had lost his mind.","listText":"Musk is a jerk. He had lost his mind.","text":"Musk is a jerk. He had lost his mind.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/466650324324408","repostId":"2558691235","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2558691235","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Reuters.com brings you the latest news from around the world, covering breaking news in markets, business, politics, entertainment and technology","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Reuters","id":"1032215980","head_image":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/4567337cbdf294b657b1fa87c5488b48"},"pubTimestamp":1754962385,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2558691235?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2025-08-12 09:33","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Musk Accuses Apple of Antitrust Violation, Says xAI Will Take Legal Action","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2558691235","media":"Reuters","summary":"Elon Musk said on Monday Apple is engaging in antitrust violations by allegedly making it impossible for any artificial intelligence company other than OpenAI to reach the No. 1 spot in its App Store...","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Elon Musk said on Monday Apple is engaging in antitrust violations by allegedly making it impossible for any artificial intelligence company other than OpenAI to reach the No. 1 spot in its App Store rankings, calling it an &#34;unequivocal antitrust violation.&#34;</p><p>&#34;xAI will take immediate legal action,&#34; Musk said in an X post.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Musk Accuses Apple of Antitrust Violation, Says xAI Will Take Legal Action</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMusk Accuses Apple of Antitrust Violation, Says xAI Will Take Legal Action\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1032215980\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/4567337cbdf294b657b1fa87c5488b48);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Reuters </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2025-08-12 09:33</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>Elon Musk said on Monday Apple is engaging in antitrust violations by allegedly making it impossible for any artificial intelligence company other than OpenAI to reach the No. 1 spot in its App Store rankings, calling it an &#34;unequivocal antitrust violation.&#34;</p><p>&#34;xAI will take immediate legal action,&#34; Musk said in an X post.</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"LU1791710582.SGD":"Fidelity Global Demographics A-ACC-SGD (SGD/USD hedged)","SG9999002224.SGD":"Allianz Global High Payout SGD","LU1267930490.SGD":"TEMPLETON GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME \"AS\" (SGD) INC A","LU0353189763.USD":"ALLSPRING  US ALL CAP GROWTH FUND \"I\" (USD) ACC","LU2456880835.USD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL INCOME \"AT\" (USD) ACC","LU0661504455.SGD":"Blackrock Global Equity Income A5 SGD-H","LU1721428933.USD":"法巴全球经典环境基金RH MD Dis","LU1582987324.SGD":"M&G (LUX) 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[Weak]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/319460476612744","repostId":"2445075366","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2445075366","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1719023400,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2445075366?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2024-06-22 10:30","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Nvidia Stock Price Outlook: Will NVDA Suffer a Dot-Com Bubble Type Disaster?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2445075366","media":"InvestorPlace","summary":"Although Nvidia has been all the hype, maybe now is time to take a step back and reconsider investment into the stock.","content":"<div>\n<p>Nvidia Corp (NVDA) has seen an impressive performance with 155.58% upside year-to-date with solid financials.AI boom is comparable to the dot-com bubble concerning Nvidia.Nvidia’s stock trades are ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://investorplace.com/2024/06/nvidia-stock-price-outlook-will-nvda-suffer-a-dot-com-bubble-type-disaster/\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"investorplace_stock_picks","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Nvidia Stock Price Outlook: Will NVDA Suffer a Dot-Com Bubble Type Disaster?</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNvidia Stock Price Outlook: Will NVDA Suffer a Dot-Com Bubble Type Disaster?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-06-22 10:30 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://investorplace.com/2024/06/nvidia-stock-price-outlook-will-nvda-suffer-a-dot-com-bubble-type-disaster/><strong>InvestorPlace</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Nvidia Corp (NVDA) has seen an impressive performance with 155.58% upside year-to-date with solid financials.AI boom is comparable to the dot-com bubble concerning Nvidia.Nvidia’s stock trades are ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://investorplace.com/2024/06/nvidia-stock-price-outlook-will-nvda-suffer-a-dot-com-bubble-type-disaster/\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"LU0079474960.USD":"联博美国增长基金A","LU0889565833.HKD":"FRANKLIN TECHNOLOGY \"A\" (HKD) ACC","LU0731783394.SGD":"Fidelity Global Dividend A-MINCOME(G)-SGD","LU0256863811.USD":"ALLIANZ US EQUITY \"A\" INC","LU1244550494.USD":"FRANKLIN GLOBAL MULTI-ASSET INCOME \"A\" (USDHEDGED) ACC","LU0080751232.USD":"富达环球多元动力基金A","LU0097036916.USD":"贝莱德美国增长A2 USD","LU0289739343.SGD":"SUSTAINABLE GLOBAL THEMATIC PORTFOLIO \"A\" (SGD) ACC","LU1242518857.USD":"FULLERTON LUX FUNDS - ASIA ABSOLUTE ALPHA \"I\" (USD) ACC","LU1852331112.SGD":"Blackrock World Technology Fund A2 SGD-H","LU0321505868.SGD":"Schroder ISF Global Dividend Maximiser A Dis SGD","IE00BFSS7M15.SGD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Acc 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Balanced A Inc SGD","LU0320765059.SGD":"FTIF - Franklin US Opportunities A Acc SGD","IE00BMPRXR70.SGD":"Neuberger Berman 5G Connectivity A Acc SGD-H","IE00B3M56506.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN EMERGING MARKETS EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU1059921491.USD":"NORDEA 1 GLOBAL STABLE EQUITY \"HB\" (USDHDG) ACC","IE00BMPRXN33.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN 5G CONNECTIVITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0198837287.USD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY SICAV - USA GROWTH \"P\" (USD) ACC","LU0234570918.USD":"高盛全球核心股票组合Acc Close","LU1244550221.USD":"FRANKLIN GLOBAL MULTI-ASSET  INCOME \"A\" (USDHEDGED) INC (M)","LU0417517546.SGD":"Allianz US Equity Cl AT Acc SGD","IE00BJJMRX11.SGD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Acc SGD"},"source_url":"https://investorplace.com/2024/06/nvidia-stock-price-outlook-will-nvda-suffer-a-dot-com-bubble-type-disaster/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2445075366","content_text":"Nvidia Corp (NVDA) has seen an impressive performance with 155.58% upside year-to-date with solid financials.AI boom is comparable to the dot-com bubble concerning Nvidia.Nvidia’s stock trades are higher than its peers, and the company faces strong competitive pressure.Source: Sergio Photone / Shutterstock.comNvidia’s (NASDAQ:NVDA) current 10-for-1 stock split has gained investor’s attention because it makes the Nvidia stock more accessible to small investors.Overall, Nvidia’s performance has been awe-inspiring, with an 155.58% upside year-to-date. The company dominates the competition with an 80% market share for AI chips. Still, its stock price is at an all-time high again, which begs whether its valuation is sound. Nvidia Stock Q1 SuccessNvidia experienced substantial growth across the year. The company’s current financial reports for the first quarter of fiscal 2025 show a significant increase in revenue to $26.04 billion, up 262% year over year.The gross margin also improved to 78.4% from 64.6% in the same quarter last year. Nvidia’s earnings per share for the first quarter of fiscal 2025 were $6.12, which is 416% up YOY. AI Might Be Overhyped Nvidia’s financial success seems to justify the hype in its stock. However, this might not be the case when we consider the AI market as a whole. About $50 billion has been invested in Nvidia’s chips, but AI startups have only generated around $3 billion in sales. The Wall Street Journal interviewed John Chambers, the CEO of Cisco Systems (NASDAQ:CSCO) during the dot-com bubble. He draws some parallels between Cisco then and Nvidia right now.Both companies had a dominant market share in a large new market while benefiting from large investments from the industry before it was profitable. Cisco’s stock today trades at around $47, never recovering from its peak of $77 in 2000. Competitive Risks Are PrevalentNvidia faces fierce competition in the semiconductor production industry, with the major two being Intel (NASDAQ:INTC) and Advanced Micro Devices (NASDAQ:AMD).China’s development of its semiconductors could threaten Nvidia’s position internationally. China has long relied on foreign companies for semiconductors like Nvidia, but it plans to produce 70% of its domestic chip use by 2025.Cheap Chinese chips could flood the international markets like its EVs, disrupting pricing for everyone in the industry. Nvidia’s Valuation Is a Gamble Even though Cisco’s stock price never recovered, that didn’t mean it wasn’t a good company. Today, it still has around 41% of the market share and generates over $12 billion a year in revenue.Similarly, Nvidia doesn’t have to be a bad company for its stock to be overvalued and for investors to never make their money back for many years. Analysts have an average price target of $124.14, below its current trading price as of writing. This shows that the market is doubting Nvidia as it continues to break all-time highs seriously.The higher the stock price, the more investors will sell off to take home their profits. It’s currently trading at a trailing Price-to-sales (P/E) ratio of 79.29x and a forward P/E of 52.08x, which accounts for the estimated earnings increase next year.Even so, if we compile the trailing P/E ratio for all the stocks in the Magnificent 7 — a list of tech conglomerates that many already consider overvalued — we get an average P/E ratio of 48.31x. Many of these companies are poised to ride the AI wave but still at a much lower valuation. Great Company, Lousy Stock Nvidia’s stock price has done exceptionally well. It’s financials, no doubt, back that story.However, great companies don’t necessarily mean outstanding stock. It took the Nasdaq-100 15 years to recover from the bubble despite many of those stocks being household names today.The growth of the AI industry is legitimate, but Nvidia isn’t the only way you can invest in it.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NVDA":1.1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1303,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":391820958122160,"gmtCreate":1736665464954,"gmtModify":1736667246789,"author":{"id":"3574807189087941","authorId":"3574807189087941","name":"Icywinddale","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/3bd2fbf9d90e26b2f600b2c5d7c54244","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574807189087941","idStr":"3574807189087941"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Bull shit","listText":"Bull shit","text":"Bull shit","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/391820958122160","repostId":"1162107727","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1162107727","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1736647249,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1162107727?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2025-01-12 10:00","market":"us","language":"en","title":"4 Underappreciated Risks Facing Nvidia Bulls","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1162107727","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryHeavy reliance on a few mega-cap tech companies poses a significant risk to Nvidia Corporation sales should investors begin to demand capital discipline from these companies.The surge in Nvidia","content":"<html><head></head><body><h2 id=\"id_1684018099\">Summary</h2><ul style=\"\"><li><p>Heavy reliance on a few mega-cap tech companies poses a significant risk to Nvidia Corporation sales should investors begin to demand capital discipline from these companies.</p></li><li><p>The surge in Nvidia&#39;s accounts receivable will act as a headwind to sales, as their customers already owe the company significant amounts of cash.</p></li><li><p>Widespread optimism among analysts and options traders poses a risk to valuation multiples should the bullish trend reverse.</p></li><li><p>The failure of the stock to reach new highs recently, combined with recent bearish price action, suggests a potential significant trend change could be afoot.</p></li></ul><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/6144f6f01bec9d39bca22c82ac595a7e\" alt=\"Nvidia Corporation building in Taipei, Taiwan.\" title=\"Nvidia Corporation building in Taipei, Taiwan.\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"500\"/><span>Nvidia Corporation building in Taipei, Taiwan.</span></p><p></p><p><strong>BING-JHEN HONG</strong></p><p></p><p>The bullish case for <strong>Nvidia Corporation</strong> (NASDAQ:NVDA) rests on the continuation of the company&#39;s blockbuster earnings growth, which many believe will allow the stock to grow into its elevated valuation multiples. However, I see four underappreciated risks facing the company over the next 12 months. The first is that the decline in profitability of Nvidia&#39;s main customers causes a sharp stock price decline and a shift towards capital discipline. Second is the extreme rise in Nvidia&#39;s accounts receivable, which may act as a headwind to future sales growth. Third is the extreme levels of optimism among analysts and options markets regarding the stock&#39;s outlook. Fourth is the failure of the stock price to rise to new highs despite this widespread optimism. Taken together, I maintain my strong sell rating on the stock and remain short.</p><h2 id=\"id_3090282346\">1) Declining Profitability Of Nvidia&#39;s Main Customers</h2><p>It could well be the case that a large share of Nvidia&#39;s earnings will turn out to reflect malinvestment resulting from the excessive spending among mega-cap tech stocks that has been enabled by the surge in their share prices. It has been estimated that as much as half of Nvidia&#39;s sales come from just four companies, namely Microsoft (MSFT), Meta Platforms (META) Amazon (AMZN), and Alphabet (GOOGL), while Tesla (TSLA) is also thought to be a significant customer. This may appear to be a positive thing, as these companies on the whole are highly stable and growing strongly. However, this level of concentration is troubling for several reasons.</p><p>One risk that has been well documented is that the major cloud computing customers reduce their reliance on Nvidia&#39;s chips via their own in-house AI chip development efforts. However, a less well-documented risk comes from a potential collapse in AI industry capex if the valuation bubble in mega-cap tech stocks bursts, leading to a shift towards capital discipline.</p><p>Over the past year, MSFT, META, GOOGL, AMZN, and TSLA have spent over $200bn in capex, equivalent to 20% of the entire S&amp;P500. If it is true that 50% of Nvidia&#39;s sales are to these companies, this means that almost one-third of the capex from these companies has found its way into Nvidia&#39;s coffers.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/25f238808ceeaa53ad53bbf8b3ac0497\" alt=\"Chart of Mag 7 Capex\" title=\"Chart of Mag 7 Capex\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"418\"/><span>Chart of Mag 7 Capex</span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>Bloomberg</strong></p><p></p><p>This huge investment spending has been enabled by the relentless appetite among investors for these stocks, sending a signal to management to continue full steam ahead despite there being little to show for these investments in terms of monetization. Moreover, stock-based compensation, or SBC, for these five companies amounted to $75bn over the same period, equivalent to 36% of the entire S&amp;P500 SBC. While stock-based compensation among these companies is of no benefit to Nvidia directly, their ability to offer expensive stock as compensation to employees has allowed them to ramp up AI training expenditure. Taken together, the combined value of capex and SBC among these five stocks has amounted to 19% of total sales over the past year. As a result, free cash flows excluding stock-based compensation for the group have actually declined over the past two quarters.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/756a69bc3fb19081b4586223420dd9fe\" alt=\"Chart of Mag 7 Cash flows\" title=\"Chart of Mag 7 Cash flows\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"418\"/><span>Chart of Mag 7 Cash flows</span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>Bloomberg</strong></p><p></p><p>The problem now is that these five stocks collectively trade at over 60x free cash flow ex-stock-based compensation, resulting in a free cash flow yield of around 1.5%. Meanwhile, 30-year inflation-linked bonds offer a yield of 2.6%. Such negative risk premiums have not been seen since the height of the late-1990s stock bubble, and strongly suggest that the current bubble is in its final stages. Any decline in the price of these five stocks could trigger a shift in priorities among management teams in favor of capital discipline. That could make it much more expensive for them to dish out stock-based compensation to employees to train AI models.</p><h2 id=\"id_2413479590\">2) Surging Accounts Receivable Is A Headwind For Sales</h2><p>An additional risk to Nvidia comes from the astonishing increase in accounts receivable, which increased by $9.4bn in the past four quarters. In the last quarter alone, the figure rose by $3.6bn. The sudden increase relative to sales stands out as being extreme when measured relative to the rest of the mega-cap universe, as shown in the chart below.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/bae2b98938d00814e2e1fdf7b61cee20\" alt=\"Chart of Mega Cap Accounts Receivable\" title=\"Chart of Mega Cap Accounts Receivable\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"445\"/><span>Chart of Mega Cap Accounts Receivable</span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>Bloomberg</strong></p><p></p><p>Considering that around half of the companies&#39; revenues come from highly stable mega-cap stocks, there is little risk that these reported earnings will not flow into the cash coffers. However, it does create a headwind for future sales, as its customers already owe the company significant amounts of cash.</p><h2 id=\"id_4278785936\">3) Sentiment, Positioning, And Wild Valuation Projections</h2><p>The price of 1-year call options on the stock exceeds the price of 1-year put options, which has only occurred a handful of times over the past decade, typically after a large stock price increase has already happened. As most investors use options as a hedge against a fall in the price of their stock holdings, the fact that it costs more to hedge against a large gain relative to a large drop indicated a large degree of speculative interest in the stock.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/f1b417dee9e02ccf920a94eeee0c6f89\" alt=\"Chart of NVDA Option Volatility\" title=\"Chart of NVDA Option Volatility\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"224\"/><span>Chart of NVDA Option Volatility</span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>Price of 1-Year NVDA Implied Call Option Volatility Vs Put Option Volatility (Bloomberg)</strong></p><p></p><p>Wall Street is also extremely bullish on the stock, with zero analysts giving it a sell rating. Meanwhile, the 12-month price target is fully 23% above current levels and 17% above its all-time high. We have also seen a proliferation of analyses calling for Nvidia to reach staggering valuations as high as $10tn, often justified by its low PEG (price-to-earnings-to-growth) ratio, such as this article. The author argues that Nvidia is a bargain due to expected earnings growth being higher than its forward P/E ratio. Leaving aside the fact that this double counts the rapid earnings growth expected in 2025, the PEG ratio is an extremely flawed valuation metric. It fails to consider the inevitable slowdown in growth that results once a company&#39;s earnings reach a significant share of the economy. It is the kind of metric that is brought out to justify paying extreme multiples for a stock.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/3da07b16243a12a5d8e85c36d6ffd820\" alt=\"Table of PEG Ratios\" title=\"Table of PEG Ratios\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"485\"/><span>Table of PEG Ratios</span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>Barrons</strong></p><p></p><h2 id=\"id_1548182104\">4) Concerning Chart Pattern</h2><p>Despite the widespread optimism towards Nvidia&#39;s stock, its price has failed to break out into new highs, and the large downside reversal candle seen on January 7 hints at a potential reversal pattern. The stock is now no higher than it was at its June peak when I last highlighted the extreme nature of its valuation multiples. Given the widespread bullish positioning in options markets, downside momentum could gather on any further weakness as options traders and margin-funded long positions are forced to reverse their bets.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/2206ab5285cec323d0c2e852c6445b66\" alt=\"Chart of NVDA\" title=\"Chart of NVDA\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"232\"/><span>Chart of NVDA</span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>NVDA Stock Price (Bloomberg)</strong></p><p></p><h2 id=\"id_4263502009\">Summary</h2><p>Nvidia bulls face several significant risks over the coming quarters, including the declining profitability of their main customers, surging accounts receivable, excessive optimism around the stock, and a deterioration in the price chart. A significant decline in the stock seems highly likely in 2025.</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1728464409321","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>4 Underappreciated Risks Facing Nvidia Bulls</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n4 Underappreciated Risks Facing Nvidia Bulls\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2025-01-12 10:00 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4748780-4-underappreciated-risks-facing-nvidia-bulls><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryHeavy reliance on a few mega-cap tech companies poses a significant risk to Nvidia Corporation sales should investors begin to demand capital discipline from these companies.The surge in Nvidia...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4748780-4-underappreciated-risks-facing-nvidia-bulls\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NVDA":"英伟达"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4748780-4-underappreciated-risks-facing-nvidia-bulls","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1162107727","content_text":"SummaryHeavy reliance on a few mega-cap tech companies poses a significant risk to Nvidia Corporation sales should investors begin to demand capital discipline from these companies.The surge in Nvidia's accounts receivable will act as a headwind to sales, as their customers already owe the company significant amounts of cash.Widespread optimism among analysts and options traders poses a risk to valuation multiples should the bullish trend reverse.The failure of the stock to reach new highs recently, combined with recent bearish price action, suggests a potential significant trend change could be afoot.Nvidia Corporation building in Taipei, Taiwan.BING-JHEN HONGThe bullish case for Nvidia Corporation (NASDAQ:NVDA) rests on the continuation of the company's blockbuster earnings growth, which many believe will allow the stock to grow into its elevated valuation multiples. However, I see four underappreciated risks facing the company over the next 12 months. The first is that the decline in profitability of Nvidia's main customers causes a sharp stock price decline and a shift towards capital discipline. Second is the extreme rise in Nvidia's accounts receivable, which may act as a headwind to future sales growth. Third is the extreme levels of optimism among analysts and options markets regarding the stock's outlook. Fourth is the failure of the stock price to rise to new highs despite this widespread optimism. Taken together, I maintain my strong sell rating on the stock and remain short.1) Declining Profitability Of Nvidia's Main CustomersIt could well be the case that a large share of Nvidia's earnings will turn out to reflect malinvestment resulting from the excessive spending among mega-cap tech stocks that has been enabled by the surge in their share prices. It has been estimated that as much as half of Nvidia's sales come from just four companies, namely Microsoft (MSFT), Meta Platforms (META) Amazon (AMZN), and Alphabet (GOOGL), while Tesla (TSLA) is also thought to be a significant customer. This may appear to be a positive thing, as these companies on the whole are highly stable and growing strongly. However, this level of concentration is troubling for several reasons.One risk that has been well documented is that the major cloud computing customers reduce their reliance on Nvidia's chips via their own in-house AI chip development efforts. However, a less well-documented risk comes from a potential collapse in AI industry capex if the valuation bubble in mega-cap tech stocks bursts, leading to a shift towards capital discipline.Over the past year, MSFT, META, GOOGL, AMZN, and TSLA have spent over $200bn in capex, equivalent to 20% of the entire S&P500. If it is true that 50% of Nvidia's sales are to these companies, this means that almost one-third of the capex from these companies has found its way into Nvidia's coffers.Chart of Mag 7 CapexBloombergThis huge investment spending has been enabled by the relentless appetite among investors for these stocks, sending a signal to management to continue full steam ahead despite there being little to show for these investments in terms of monetization. Moreover, stock-based compensation, or SBC, for these five companies amounted to $75bn over the same period, equivalent to 36% of the entire S&P500 SBC. While stock-based compensation among these companies is of no benefit to Nvidia directly, their ability to offer expensive stock as compensation to employees has allowed them to ramp up AI training expenditure. Taken together, the combined value of capex and SBC among these five stocks has amounted to 19% of total sales over the past year. As a result, free cash flows excluding stock-based compensation for the group have actually declined over the past two quarters.Chart of Mag 7 Cash flowsBloombergThe problem now is that these five stocks collectively trade at over 60x free cash flow ex-stock-based compensation, resulting in a free cash flow yield of around 1.5%. Meanwhile, 30-year inflation-linked bonds offer a yield of 2.6%. Such negative risk premiums have not been seen since the height of the late-1990s stock bubble, and strongly suggest that the current bubble is in its final stages. Any decline in the price of these five stocks could trigger a shift in priorities among management teams in favor of capital discipline. That could make it much more expensive for them to dish out stock-based compensation to employees to train AI models.2) Surging Accounts Receivable Is A Headwind For SalesAn additional risk to Nvidia comes from the astonishing increase in accounts receivable, which increased by $9.4bn in the past four quarters. In the last quarter alone, the figure rose by $3.6bn. The sudden increase relative to sales stands out as being extreme when measured relative to the rest of the mega-cap universe, as shown in the chart below.Chart of Mega Cap Accounts ReceivableBloombergConsidering that around half of the companies' revenues come from highly stable mega-cap stocks, there is little risk that these reported earnings will not flow into the cash coffers. However, it does create a headwind for future sales, as its customers already owe the company significant amounts of cash.3) Sentiment, Positioning, And Wild Valuation ProjectionsThe price of 1-year call options on the stock exceeds the price of 1-year put options, which has only occurred a handful of times over the past decade, typically after a large stock price increase has already happened. As most investors use options as a hedge against a fall in the price of their stock holdings, the fact that it costs more to hedge against a large gain relative to a large drop indicated a large degree of speculative interest in the stock.Chart of NVDA Option VolatilityPrice of 1-Year NVDA Implied Call Option Volatility Vs Put Option Volatility (Bloomberg)Wall Street is also extremely bullish on the stock, with zero analysts giving it a sell rating. Meanwhile, the 12-month price target is fully 23% above current levels and 17% above its all-time high. We have also seen a proliferation of analyses calling for Nvidia to reach staggering valuations as high as $10tn, often justified by its low PEG (price-to-earnings-to-growth) ratio, such as this article. The author argues that Nvidia is a bargain due to expected earnings growth being higher than its forward P/E ratio. Leaving aside the fact that this double counts the rapid earnings growth expected in 2025, the PEG ratio is an extremely flawed valuation metric. It fails to consider the inevitable slowdown in growth that results once a company's earnings reach a significant share of the economy. It is the kind of metric that is brought out to justify paying extreme multiples for a stock.Table of PEG RatiosBarrons4) Concerning Chart PatternDespite the widespread optimism towards Nvidia's stock, its price has failed to break out into new highs, and the large downside reversal candle seen on January 7 hints at a potential reversal pattern. The stock is now no higher than it was at its June peak when I last highlighted the extreme nature of its valuation multiples. Given the widespread bullish positioning in options markets, downside momentum could gather on any further weakness as options traders and margin-funded long positions are forced to reverse their bets.Chart of NVDANVDA Stock Price (Bloomberg)SummaryNvidia bulls face several significant risks over the coming quarters, including the declining profitability of their main customers, surging accounts receivable, excessive optimism around the stock, and a deterioration in the price chart. A significant decline in the stock seems highly likely in 2025.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NVDA":1.1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3544,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":382617526878608,"gmtCreate":1734447495602,"gmtModify":1734447535935,"author":{"id":"3574807189087941","authorId":"3574807189087941","name":"Icywinddale","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/3bd2fbf9d90e26b2f600b2c5d7c54244","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574807189087941","idStr":"3574807189087941"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Can not believe this kind shit article can be published. Who is the author?","listText":"Can not believe this kind shit article can be published. Who is the author?","text":"Can not believe this kind shit article can be published. Who is the author?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/382617526878608","repostId":"1128864584","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1128864584","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1734416177,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1128864584?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2024-12-17 14:16","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Nvidia: This Could Be The Top","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1128864584","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryA rather tepid Nvidia Corporation forecast for Q4, which failed to meet Wall Street’s relatively high expectations, is one of the main reasons behind the recent decline in NVDA's share price.At","content":"<html><head></head><body><h2 id=\"id_1885097578\">Summary</h2><ul style=\"\"><li><p>A rather tepid Nvidia Corporation forecast for Q4, which failed to meet Wall Street’s relatively high expectations, is one of the main reasons behind the recent decline in NVDA&#39;s share price.</p></li><li><p>At this point, Nvidia’s stock could be considered overvalued and overhyped at the same time.</p></li><li><p>Nvidia remains a SELL for us, since we believe that its stock has more room to fall.</p></li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/f1cd66fb76fb9c3656779aa6ac145d6d\" alt=\"\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"500\"/></p><p><strong>Nvidia Corporation </strong>(NASDAQ:NVDA) stock is up 14% since we last covered it a couple of months ago, but also down 7% since the release of its Q3 earnings report last month. Although the earnings report was successful, the market is not satisfied with the guidance that the management announced.</p><p>In our previous coverage on Nvidia, we said that the company’s stock is priced for perfection and the inability of the management to constantly increase the outlook significantly above the consensus could kill Nvidia’s momentum. That is precisely what is happening right now. We believe that because of the rising challenges that the company is facing, the future guidance for the upcoming quarters might disappoint as well and lead to a further depreciation of Nvidia’s share price.</p><h2 id=\"id_3690589756\">Reality Fails To Meet Expectations</h2><p>The Q3 numbers themselves weren’t that bad. The revenues were up 93.6% Y/Y to $35.08 billion, above the consensus by nearly $2 billion. The bottom-line performance was also relatively good, as it was above the consensus as well. But because Nvidia was priced for perfection already, the relatively weak guidance killed the stock’s momentum, and the share price is currently on a downward trend.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/b9d4491fd0ada5a07d412d888f3a9fae\" alt=\"Nvidia’s stock price\" title=\"Nvidia’s stock price\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"261\"/><span>Nvidia’s stock price</span></p><p>In Q4, the management expects Nvidia to make $37.5 billion in revenues, which is not that far away from the street consensus of $37.1 billion. Some analysts guided for the revenue goal of as high as $41 billion before the management’s outlook was released. But overall, the guidance mainly disappointed Wall Street and became one of the main reasons behind the latest depreciation. At the same time, Nvidia faces some major challenges that could prevent the company from aggressively increasing the outlook that could impress Wall Street in the upcoming quarters as well.</p><p>The AI accelerators from the Blackwell series are currently one of the most talked about accelerators in the world, with an insane demand according to Nvidia’s management. However, some issues associated with them have already affected Nvidia’s release plans. In October, Blackwell encountered a design flaw that resulted in lower yield rates and delayed their shipping to first clients. Then last month, it was reported that Blackwell chips were overheating in servers.</p><p>Although it appears that those issues have now been fixed and the ramp-up of Blackwell is expected in Q4, Nvidia’s guidance suggests that revenue of $37.5 billion for the upcoming quarter will translate to a Q/Q growth rate of only 7%. This might indicate that despite all the hype surrounding Blackwell, the AI chip buying cycle could be coming off the peak right now. That doesn’t mean that the growth will disappear. However, the growth rate itself should normalize and the aggressive double and triple-digit revenue growth rate that fueled the rise of Nvidia’s stock could become a thing of the past.</p><p>The ramp-up of Blackwell in the upcoming quarters is also expected to affect Nvidia’s margins and could result in a poorer bottom-line performance. The gross margins are expected to decline to the low 70s, and the margin pressure could persist throughout the first part of FY26. This creates additional pressure on Nvidia, as Blackwell needs to perform well for the company to not release another relatively disappointing guidance that further kills the stock of its momentum. Considering that the networking revenues were down sequentially in Q3, and the gaming revenues in Q4 are expected to be down sequentially as well, Nvidia’s upside could be limited in the foreseeable future if Blackwell doesn’t perform well.</p><p>Nvidia also faces additional pressure from hyperscalers, who at the same time are its major clients. They are currently in the middle of designing their own AI chips for their data centers, which over time could undermine Nvidia’s dominant position in the AI accelerator market. We already know that Amazon (AMZN) is working with Intel (INTC) to produce a fabric AI chip, while Apple (AAPL) recently confirmed that it now also uses Amazon’s custom AI chips. Other companies like Microsoft (MSFT), Meta Platforms (META), Google (GOOGL, GOOG), Tesla (TSLA) and OpenAI are also in the middle of designing their own AI chips and could become direct competitors of Nvidia over time.</p><p>All of those developments make us question Nvidia’s market capitalization of $3.4 trillion. The whole generative AI market is not expected to generate as much revenue over the following years. Thus, it doesn’t make a lot of sense for Nvidia to be worth so much today, given the number of issues that it faces.</p><p>The geopolitical issues are also not going anywhere away. The implementation of Trump’s protectionist tariff policy next year could damage global growth, which could result in lower demand for AI chips since businesses could be forced to hoard resources in the face of macroeconomic uncertainty. Nvidia already suffers from the ongoing chip war between China and the United States, as its revenues in China are currently below historically high levels due to chip export restrictions. An uncertain macro environment will only make it harder for it to aggressively increase its outlook to satisfy the market’s needs.</p><h3 id=\"id_211129166\">The Intrinsic Value of Nvidia</h3><p>At the current market price, we also believe that Nvidia is overvalued. Our valuation model from the previous article showed that Nvidia’s intrinsic value is $79.33 per share. Since Nvidia released a new outlook last month, we decided to update our model and make several revisions.</p><p>In the model, we decrease Nvidia’s effective tax rate from 21% to 15%. The 15% is closer to Nvidia’s current rate, and there’s a possibility that the standard corporate tax rate in the United States will be decreased under the Trump administration. The perpetual growth rate remains at 3%, and our valuation model forecasts Nvidia’s performance for the next five years. The long-term debt and cash data have been taken from the latest earnings report, and we update this model when Nvidia is trading at $134.25 per share.</p><p>The discount rate in our valuation model is 9.84%. We figured it out by calculating Nvidia’s after-tax cost of debt and cost of equity. To figure out the cost of debt, we mostly used Nvidia’s TTM data. To figure out the cost of equity, we used the risk-free rate of 4.40%, beta of 1.66, and the market-return rate of 7.69%. We then weighted Nvidia’s debt and equity to arrive at the discount rate.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/a6bea708b99e09c85b15fd4405208555\" alt=\"Nvidia’s valuation model\" title=\"Nvidia’s valuation model\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"182\"/><span>Nvidia’s valuation model</span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>Nvidia’s valuation model (Bears of Wall Street)</strong></p><p></p><p>For the forecast table below, we updated the sales growth rate, which is now similar to the overall expectations for the next couple of years. As the table shows, we expect a normalization of the sales growth rate in the following years. The EBIT rate remained the same as before and is similar to the current TTM rate. The tax rate was decreased, and the bottom part of the forecast table mostly remained the same.</p><p>The assumptions in our forecast table helped us to figure out Nvidia’s enterprise value, which in our case is $2.23 trillion. We then added cash and subtracted debt to arrive at the equity value of $2.26 trillion. Thereafter, we divided Nvidia’s equity value by the number of its outstanding shares and figured out that Nvidia’s intrinsic value is $91.20 per share. The lower tax rate in this updated model is one of the main reasons why the intrinsic value has been higher in comparison to our previous model. However, under the new assumptions, Nvidia’s stock is overvalued by around 32%.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/5c46e9d52e3bae0f74e46a337968e78d\" alt=\"Nvidia’s valuation model\" title=\"Nvidia’s valuation model\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"228\"/><span>Nvidia’s valuation model</span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>Nvidia’s valuation model (Bears of Wall Street)</strong></p><p></p><h3 id=\"id_4292459600\">Risks To Our Bearish Thesis</h3><p>Although we believe that Nvidia’s stock has likely reached its top for now, there are still a couple of potential developments that can undermine our bearish outlook for the company. While we are unlikely to see an aggressive Y/Y growth of sales in the future since the base for comparison has been significantly raised in the last year and a half, that doesn’t mean that the growth will stop. Since there’s a possibility that a chip shortage could last for the next couple of years, there’s a potential that the demand for AI chips will remain for a while. This could result in sales that are higher than the current consensus once the production of Blackwell is ramped up. This could push Nvidia’s stock price higher, like it was a year ago, even if the Y/Y growth rate won’t be as impressive as before.</p><p>The macro risks could also be overblown, and there’s a possibility that the American economy will grow next year despite the geopolitical uncertainty. This could result in a boost in demand for AI chips and also lead to the growth of Nvidia’s share price.</p><h2 id=\"id_2596097235\">Final Thoughts</h2><p>Is Nvidia a great business? Yes. Will it continue to grow for years to come? Most likely yes. But the biggest issue at this point is that the rate at which Nvidia is growing is unlikely to be as impressive as before. We believe that a rather tepid forecast for Q4, which failed to meet Wall Street’s relatively high expectations, is one of the main reasons behind the recent decline of Nvidia’s share price.</p><p>Considering that the stock is already overvalued while challenges for Nvidia continue to increase, it would be tough for the stock to continue to trade at the current relatively high multiples. That is why Nvidia remains a SELL for us, since we believe that its stock has more room to fall.</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1728464409321","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Nvidia: This Could Be The Top</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNvidia: This Could Be The Top\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-12-17 14:16 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4744616-nvidia-this-could-be-the-top><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryA rather tepid Nvidia Corporation forecast for Q4, which failed to meet Wall Street’s relatively high expectations, is one of the main reasons behind the recent decline in NVDA's share price.At...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4744616-nvidia-this-could-be-the-top\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NVDA":"英伟达"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4744616-nvidia-this-could-be-the-top","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1128864584","content_text":"SummaryA rather tepid Nvidia Corporation forecast for Q4, which failed to meet Wall Street’s relatively high expectations, is one of the main reasons behind the recent decline in NVDA's share price.At this point, Nvidia’s stock could be considered overvalued and overhyped at the same time.Nvidia remains a SELL for us, since we believe that its stock has more room to fall.Nvidia Corporation (NASDAQ:NVDA) stock is up 14% since we last covered it a couple of months ago, but also down 7% since the release of its Q3 earnings report last month. Although the earnings report was successful, the market is not satisfied with the guidance that the management announced.In our previous coverage on Nvidia, we said that the company’s stock is priced for perfection and the inability of the management to constantly increase the outlook significantly above the consensus could kill Nvidia’s momentum. That is precisely what is happening right now. We believe that because of the rising challenges that the company is facing, the future guidance for the upcoming quarters might disappoint as well and lead to a further depreciation of Nvidia’s share price.Reality Fails To Meet ExpectationsThe Q3 numbers themselves weren’t that bad. The revenues were up 93.6% Y/Y to $35.08 billion, above the consensus by nearly $2 billion. The bottom-line performance was also relatively good, as it was above the consensus as well. But because Nvidia was priced for perfection already, the relatively weak guidance killed the stock’s momentum, and the share price is currently on a downward trend.Nvidia’s stock priceIn Q4, the management expects Nvidia to make $37.5 billion in revenues, which is not that far away from the street consensus of $37.1 billion. Some analysts guided for the revenue goal of as high as $41 billion before the management’s outlook was released. But overall, the guidance mainly disappointed Wall Street and became one of the main reasons behind the latest depreciation. At the same time, Nvidia faces some major challenges that could prevent the company from aggressively increasing the outlook that could impress Wall Street in the upcoming quarters as well.The AI accelerators from the Blackwell series are currently one of the most talked about accelerators in the world, with an insane demand according to Nvidia’s management. However, some issues associated with them have already affected Nvidia’s release plans. In October, Blackwell encountered a design flaw that resulted in lower yield rates and delayed their shipping to first clients. Then last month, it was reported that Blackwell chips were overheating in servers.Although it appears that those issues have now been fixed and the ramp-up of Blackwell is expected in Q4, Nvidia’s guidance suggests that revenue of $37.5 billion for the upcoming quarter will translate to a Q/Q growth rate of only 7%. This might indicate that despite all the hype surrounding Blackwell, the AI chip buying cycle could be coming off the peak right now. That doesn’t mean that the growth will disappear. However, the growth rate itself should normalize and the aggressive double and triple-digit revenue growth rate that fueled the rise of Nvidia’s stock could become a thing of the past.The ramp-up of Blackwell in the upcoming quarters is also expected to affect Nvidia’s margins and could result in a poorer bottom-line performance. The gross margins are expected to decline to the low 70s, and the margin pressure could persist throughout the first part of FY26. This creates additional pressure on Nvidia, as Blackwell needs to perform well for the company to not release another relatively disappointing guidance that further kills the stock of its momentum. Considering that the networking revenues were down sequentially in Q3, and the gaming revenues in Q4 are expected to be down sequentially as well, Nvidia’s upside could be limited in the foreseeable future if Blackwell doesn’t perform well.Nvidia also faces additional pressure from hyperscalers, who at the same time are its major clients. They are currently in the middle of designing their own AI chips for their data centers, which over time could undermine Nvidia’s dominant position in the AI accelerator market. We already know that Amazon (AMZN) is working with Intel (INTC) to produce a fabric AI chip, while Apple (AAPL) recently confirmed that it now also uses Amazon’s custom AI chips. Other companies like Microsoft (MSFT), Meta Platforms (META), Google (GOOGL, GOOG), Tesla (TSLA) and OpenAI are also in the middle of designing their own AI chips and could become direct competitors of Nvidia over time.All of those developments make us question Nvidia’s market capitalization of $3.4 trillion. The whole generative AI market is not expected to generate as much revenue over the following years. Thus, it doesn’t make a lot of sense for Nvidia to be worth so much today, given the number of issues that it faces.The geopolitical issues are also not going anywhere away. The implementation of Trump’s protectionist tariff policy next year could damage global growth, which could result in lower demand for AI chips since businesses could be forced to hoard resources in the face of macroeconomic uncertainty. Nvidia already suffers from the ongoing chip war between China and the United States, as its revenues in China are currently below historically high levels due to chip export restrictions. An uncertain macro environment will only make it harder for it to aggressively increase its outlook to satisfy the market’s needs.The Intrinsic Value of NvidiaAt the current market price, we also believe that Nvidia is overvalued. Our valuation model from the previous article showed that Nvidia’s intrinsic value is $79.33 per share. Since Nvidia released a new outlook last month, we decided to update our model and make several revisions.In the model, we decrease Nvidia’s effective tax rate from 21% to 15%. The 15% is closer to Nvidia’s current rate, and there’s a possibility that the standard corporate tax rate in the United States will be decreased under the Trump administration. The perpetual growth rate remains at 3%, and our valuation model forecasts Nvidia’s performance for the next five years. The long-term debt and cash data have been taken from the latest earnings report, and we update this model when Nvidia is trading at $134.25 per share.The discount rate in our valuation model is 9.84%. We figured it out by calculating Nvidia’s after-tax cost of debt and cost of equity. To figure out the cost of debt, we mostly used Nvidia’s TTM data. To figure out the cost of equity, we used the risk-free rate of 4.40%, beta of 1.66, and the market-return rate of 7.69%. We then weighted Nvidia’s debt and equity to arrive at the discount rate.Nvidia’s valuation modelNvidia’s valuation model (Bears of Wall Street)For the forecast table below, we updated the sales growth rate, which is now similar to the overall expectations for the next couple of years. As the table shows, we expect a normalization of the sales growth rate in the following years. The EBIT rate remained the same as before and is similar to the current TTM rate. The tax rate was decreased, and the bottom part of the forecast table mostly remained the same.The assumptions in our forecast table helped us to figure out Nvidia’s enterprise value, which in our case is $2.23 trillion. We then added cash and subtracted debt to arrive at the equity value of $2.26 trillion. Thereafter, we divided Nvidia’s equity value by the number of its outstanding shares and figured out that Nvidia’s intrinsic value is $91.20 per share. The lower tax rate in this updated model is one of the main reasons why the intrinsic value has been higher in comparison to our previous model. However, under the new assumptions, Nvidia’s stock is overvalued by around 32%.Nvidia’s valuation modelNvidia’s valuation model (Bears of Wall Street)Risks To Our Bearish ThesisAlthough we believe that Nvidia’s stock has likely reached its top for now, there are still a couple of potential developments that can undermine our bearish outlook for the company. While we are unlikely to see an aggressive Y/Y growth of sales in the future since the base for comparison has been significantly raised in the last year and a half, that doesn’t mean that the growth will stop. Since there’s a possibility that a chip shortage could last for the next couple of years, there’s a potential that the demand for AI chips will remain for a while. This could result in sales that are higher than the current consensus once the production of Blackwell is ramped up. This could push Nvidia’s stock price higher, like it was a year ago, even if the Y/Y growth rate won’t be as impressive as before.The macro risks could also be overblown, and there’s a possibility that the American economy will grow next year despite the geopolitical uncertainty. This could result in a boost in demand for AI chips and also lead to the growth of Nvidia’s share price.Final ThoughtsIs Nvidia a great business? Yes. Will it continue to grow for years to come? Most likely yes. But the biggest issue at this point is that the rate at which Nvidia is growing is unlikely to be as impressive as before. We believe that a rather tepid forecast for Q4, which failed to meet Wall Street’s relatively high expectations, is one of the main reasons behind the recent decline of Nvidia’s share price.Considering that the stock is already overvalued while challenges for Nvidia continue to increase, it would be tough for the stock to continue to trade at the current relatively high multiples. That is why Nvidia remains a SELL for us, since we believe that its stock has more room to fall.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NVDA":1.1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3592,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":345446838050944,"gmtCreate":1725379900830,"gmtModify":1725379902772,"author":{"id":"3574807189087941","authorId":"3574807189087941","name":"Icywinddale","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/3bd2fbf9d90e26b2f600b2c5d7c54244","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574807189087941","idStr":"3574807189087941"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Share your opinion about this news…","listText":"Share your opinion about this news…","text":"Share your opinion about this news…","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/345446838050944","repostId":"2464383499","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1313,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":335551065743560,"gmtCreate":1722957736271,"gmtModify":1722957739644,"author":{"id":"3574807189087941","authorId":"3574807189087941","name":"Icywinddale","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/3bd2fbf9d90e26b2f600b2c5d7c54244","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574807189087941","idStr":"3574807189087941"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nonsense","listText":"Nonsense","text":"Nonsense","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/335551065743560","repostId":"2457119010","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":911,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":319003742466224,"gmtCreate":1718895207578,"gmtModify":1718895377243,"author":{"id":"3574807189087941","authorId":"3574807189087941","name":"Icywinddale","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/3bd2fbf9d90e26b2f600b2c5d7c54244","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574807189087941","idStr":"3574807189087941"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[Weak]&nbsp;[Weak]&nbsp;[Weak]&nbsp;&nbsp;","listText":"[Weak]&nbsp;[Weak]&nbsp;[Weak]&nbsp;&nbsp;","text":"[Weak] [Weak] [Weak]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/319003742466224","repostId":"2444055984","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1505,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":536994292802960,"gmtCreate":1772121507035,"gmtModify":1772121782631,"author":{"id":"3574807189087941","authorId":"3574807189087941","name":"Icywinddale","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/3bd2fbf9d90e26b2f600b2c5d7c54244","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574807189087941","idStr":"3574807189087941"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"This market is nuts. Full of shit","listText":"This market is nuts. Full of shit","text":"This market is nuts. Full of shit","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/536994292802960","repostId":"1132296049","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1132296049","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1772120772,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1132296049?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2026-02-26 23:46","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Michael Burry Draws Parallel Between Nvidia's Supply Commitments and Cisco's Dot-Com Bubble Peak","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1132296049","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Michael Burry, renowned for his role in \"The Big Short,\" is reinforcing his pessimistic outlook on Nvidia, highlighting a concerning detail in the chipmaker's recent financial results that resembles...","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Michael Burry, renowned for his role in &#34;The Big Short,&#34; is reinforcing his pessimistic outlook on Nvidia, highlighting a concerning detail in the chipmaker&#39;s recent financial results that resembles trends observed during the peak of the late 1990s dot-com bubble. </p><p>In a newsletter published on Thursday, Burry pointed to a significant increase in Nvidia&#39;s purchase obligations, which jumped to $95.2 billion from $16.1 billion the previous year.</p><p>Nvidia&#39;s shares traded near session lows on Thursday, declining about 5%.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/d54f958bd0637b6bfb2cc1cdf92c83f4\" tg-width=\"825\" tg-height=\"621\"/></p><p>Combined supply commitments, encompassing inventory and purchase agreements, now total approximately $117 billion, nearly equaling Nvidia&#39;s annual operating cash flow. During the company&#39;s fiscal fourth-quarter earnings call on Wednesday, Chief Financial Officer Colette Kress noted that inventory grew by 8% compared to the previous quarter.</p><p>She stated that Nvidia had &#34;strategically secured inventory and capacity to meet demand beyond the next several quarters, further out in time than usual.&#34; According to Burry, these remarks indicate that the largest U.S. publicly traded company is committing to purchase substantial supply before fully understanding future demand strength.</p><p>This strategy results in more capital being allocated to inventory for extended periods. Burry emphasized that the current situation is &#34;not temporary,&#34; nor is it caused by an external export shock. He described it as originating from within the company&#39;s business plan, reflecting a deliberate decision to secure supply chain capacity more extensively than ever before.</p><p>The prominent investor compared the circumstances to those faced by Cisco Systems during the height of the dot-com boom around 2000-2001. During that period, Cisco secured large supply commitments to support anticipated rapid growth.</p><p>When corporate technology spending abruptly declined, Cisco was burdened with excess inventory and contractual obligations it could not utilize, ultimately leading to multi-billion dollar write-downs and a sharp stock price decline.</p><p>Burry commented that Nvidia&#39;s current actions represent significant risk, not standard business practice. He recalled that Cisco had similarly extended purchase commitments with suppliers to ensure capacity for its projected 50% annual growth.</p><p>While acknowledging that Nvidia&#39;s current profit margins, exceeding 70%, are higher than Cisco&#39;s were at the time—potentially offering some protection against downturns—Burry suggested these margins have been inflated by exceptionally strong demand and Nvidia&#39;s pricing power. He warned that such high margins could quickly diminish if demand shifts.</p><p>Not all observers view the inventory buildup as a warning signal. Analysts at Rosenblatt Securities noted that Nvidia&#39;s management addressed various investor concerns during the quarter, including GPU capacity, competition from custom chips, power availability, memory supply, and customer financing.</p><p>The firm described Nvidia&#39;s leadership as confident in supporting customer demand for its next-generation platforms and continuing to lead AI market development. On Thursday, Rosenblatt raised its 12-month price target for Nvidia to $300 from $245, implying potential gains of over 50% in the next year.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Michael Burry Draws Parallel Between Nvidia's Supply Commitments and Cisco's Dot-Com Bubble Peak</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMichael Burry Draws Parallel Between Nvidia's Supply Commitments and Cisco's Dot-Com Bubble Peak\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-02-26 23:46</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>Michael Burry, renowned for his role in &#34;The Big Short,&#34; is reinforcing his pessimistic outlook on Nvidia, highlighting a concerning detail in the chipmaker&#39;s recent financial results that resembles trends observed during the peak of the late 1990s dot-com bubble. </p><p>In a newsletter published on Thursday, Burry pointed to a significant increase in Nvidia&#39;s purchase obligations, which jumped to $95.2 billion from $16.1 billion the previous year.</p><p>Nvidia&#39;s shares traded near session lows on Thursday, declining about 5%.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/d54f958bd0637b6bfb2cc1cdf92c83f4\" tg-width=\"825\" tg-height=\"621\"/></p><p>Combined supply commitments, encompassing inventory and purchase agreements, now total approximately $117 billion, nearly equaling Nvidia&#39;s annual operating cash flow. During the company&#39;s fiscal fourth-quarter earnings call on Wednesday, Chief Financial Officer Colette Kress noted that inventory grew by 8% compared to the previous quarter.</p><p>She stated that Nvidia had &#34;strategically secured inventory and capacity to meet demand beyond the next several quarters, further out in time than usual.&#34; According to Burry, these remarks indicate that the largest U.S. publicly traded company is committing to purchase substantial supply before fully understanding future demand strength.</p><p>This strategy results in more capital being allocated to inventory for extended periods. Burry emphasized that the current situation is &#34;not temporary,&#34; nor is it caused by an external export shock. He described it as originating from within the company&#39;s business plan, reflecting a deliberate decision to secure supply chain capacity more extensively than ever before.</p><p>The prominent investor compared the circumstances to those faced by Cisco Systems during the height of the dot-com boom around 2000-2001. During that period, Cisco secured large supply commitments to support anticipated rapid growth.</p><p>When corporate technology spending abruptly declined, Cisco was burdened with excess inventory and contractual obligations it could not utilize, ultimately leading to multi-billion dollar write-downs and a sharp stock price decline.</p><p>Burry commented that Nvidia&#39;s current actions represent significant risk, not standard business practice. He recalled that Cisco had similarly extended purchase commitments with suppliers to ensure capacity for its projected 50% annual growth.</p><p>While acknowledging that Nvidia&#39;s current profit margins, exceeding 70%, are higher than Cisco&#39;s were at the time—potentially offering some protection against downturns—Burry suggested these margins have been inflated by exceptionally strong demand and Nvidia&#39;s pricing power. He warned that such high margins could quickly diminish if demand shifts.</p><p>Not all observers view the inventory buildup as a warning signal. Analysts at Rosenblatt Securities noted that Nvidia&#39;s management addressed various investor concerns during the quarter, including GPU capacity, competition from custom chips, power availability, memory supply, and customer financing.</p><p>The firm described Nvidia&#39;s leadership as confident in supporting customer demand for its next-generation platforms and continuing to lead AI market development. On Thursday, Rosenblatt raised its 12-month price target for Nvidia to $300 from $245, implying potential gains of over 50% in the next year.</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NVDA":"英伟达"},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1132296049","content_text":"Michael Burry, renowned for his role in \"The Big Short,\" is reinforcing his pessimistic outlook on Nvidia, highlighting a concerning detail in the chipmaker's recent financial results that resembles trends observed during the peak of the late 1990s dot-com bubble. In a newsletter published on Thursday, Burry pointed to a significant increase in Nvidia's purchase obligations, which jumped to $95.2 billion from $16.1 billion the previous year.Nvidia's shares traded near session lows on Thursday, declining about 5%.Combined supply commitments, encompassing inventory and purchase agreements, now total approximately $117 billion, nearly equaling Nvidia's annual operating cash flow. During the company's fiscal fourth-quarter earnings call on Wednesday, Chief Financial Officer Colette Kress noted that inventory grew by 8% compared to the previous quarter.She stated that Nvidia had \"strategically secured inventory and capacity to meet demand beyond the next several quarters, further out in time than usual.\" According to Burry, these remarks indicate that the largest U.S. publicly traded company is committing to purchase substantial supply before fully understanding future demand strength.This strategy results in more capital being allocated to inventory for extended periods. Burry emphasized that the current situation is \"not temporary,\" nor is it caused by an external export shock. He described it as originating from within the company's business plan, reflecting a deliberate decision to secure supply chain capacity more extensively than ever before.The prominent investor compared the circumstances to those faced by Cisco Systems during the height of the dot-com boom around 2000-2001. During that period, Cisco secured large supply commitments to support anticipated rapid growth.When corporate technology spending abruptly declined, Cisco was burdened with excess inventory and contractual obligations it could not utilize, ultimately leading to multi-billion dollar write-downs and a sharp stock price decline.Burry commented that Nvidia's current actions represent significant risk, not standard business practice. He recalled that Cisco had similarly extended purchase commitments with suppliers to ensure capacity for its projected 50% annual growth.While acknowledging that Nvidia's current profit margins, exceeding 70%, are higher than Cisco's were at the time—potentially offering some protection against downturns—Burry suggested these margins have been inflated by exceptionally strong demand and Nvidia's pricing power. He warned that such high margins could quickly diminish if demand shifts.Not all observers view the inventory buildup as a warning signal. Analysts at Rosenblatt Securities noted that Nvidia's management addressed various investor concerns during the quarter, including GPU capacity, competition from custom chips, power availability, memory supply, and customer financing.The firm described Nvidia's leadership as confident in supporting customer demand for its next-generation platforms and continuing to lead AI market development. On Thursday, Rosenblatt raised its 12-month price target for Nvidia to $300 from $245, implying potential gains of over 50% in the next year.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NVDA":2}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":341,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":509671598838344,"gmtCreate":1765462964087,"gmtModify":1765463537210,"author":{"id":"3574807189087941","authorId":"3574807189087941","name":"Icywinddale","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/3bd2fbf9d90e26b2f600b2c5d7c54244","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574807189087941","idStr":"3574807189087941"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"What's the point of this bullshits? Waste of time to read!","listText":"What's the point of this bullshits? Waste of time to read!","text":"What's the point of this bullshits? Waste of time to read!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/509671598838344","repostId":"1142046315","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1142046315","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Dow Jones publishes the world’s most trusted business news and financial information in a variety of media.","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Dow Jones","id":"1012688067","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99"},"pubTimestamp":1765459198,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1142046315?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2025-12-11 21:19","market":"us","language":"en","title":"2 Reasons Nvidia Stock Is Getting Hit By Oracle's Earnings","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1142046315","media":"Dow Jones","summary":"Nvidia was falling early on Thursday. The chip maker was being dragged down by fears of an artificial-intelligence bubble reignited by earnings from software and cloud-computing company Oracle.Nvidia...","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Nvidia was falling early on Thursday. The chip maker was being dragged down by fears of an artificial-intelligence bubble reignited by earnings from software and cloud-computing company Oracle.</p><p>Nvidia shares were down 1.8% at $180.50 in premarket trading. Futures tied to the benchmark S&amp;P 500 were falling 0.5%.</p><p>Stocks exposed to the AI trend were being hit as Oracle slumped 12% in the premarket following earnings where guidance came in short of estimates and it raised its spending forecast. Oracle spent a record $12 billion in capital expenditures in its most recent quarter, higher than the $8.4 billion Wall Street was expecting. It also boosted its full-year capital-expenditure forecast from $35 billion to $50 billion.</p><p>While capex investment has been a boost for Nvidia and other chip companies making the graphics-processing units and central-processing units powering AI, investors look to be worried such spending is unsustainable. Nvidia shareholders might have been spooked by Oracle’s comments that it will also strike deals with competing providers of chips.</p><p>“We are now committed to a policy of chip neutrality where we work closely with all our CPU and GPU suppliers. Of course, we will continue to buy the latest GPUs from Nvidia, but we need to be prepared and able to deploy whatever chips our customers want to buy,” said Oracle executive chair Larry Ellison in a statement.</p><p>Oracle said in October that it would expand its relationship with Advanced Micro Devices, as a launch partner for the first publicly available AI “supercluster” powered by AMD’s next-generation Instinct MI450 graphics processing units, or GPUs. The pair will deploy 50,000 chips starting in the third quarter of 2026.</p><p>Among other chip makers, Advanced Micro Devices was down 1.8% and Broadcom was falling 1.7% in premarket trading. Broadcom is reporting earnings after the market close on Thursday.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>2 Reasons Nvidia Stock Is Getting Hit By Oracle's Earnings</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n2 Reasons Nvidia Stock Is Getting Hit By Oracle's Earnings\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1012688067\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Dow Jones </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2025-12-11 21:19</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>Nvidia was falling early on Thursday. The chip maker was being dragged down by fears of an artificial-intelligence bubble reignited by earnings from software and cloud-computing company Oracle.</p><p>Nvidia shares were down 1.8% at $180.50 in premarket trading. Futures tied to the benchmark S&amp;P 500 were falling 0.5%.</p><p>Stocks exposed to the AI trend were being hit as Oracle slumped 12% in the premarket following earnings where guidance came in short of estimates and it raised its spending forecast. Oracle spent a record $12 billion in capital expenditures in its most recent quarter, higher than the $8.4 billion Wall Street was expecting. It also boosted its full-year capital-expenditure forecast from $35 billion to $50 billion.</p><p>While capex investment has been a boost for Nvidia and other chip companies making the graphics-processing units and central-processing units powering AI, investors look to be worried such spending is unsustainable. Nvidia shareholders might have been spooked by Oracle’s comments that it will also strike deals with competing providers of chips.</p><p>“We are now committed to a policy of chip neutrality where we work closely with all our CPU and GPU suppliers. Of course, we will continue to buy the latest GPUs from Nvidia, but we need to be prepared and able to deploy whatever chips our customers want to buy,” said Oracle executive chair Larry Ellison in a statement.</p><p>Oracle said in October that it would expand its relationship with Advanced Micro Devices, as a launch partner for the first publicly available AI “supercluster” powered by AMD’s next-generation Instinct MI450 graphics processing units, or GPUs. The pair will deploy 50,000 chips starting in the third quarter of 2026.</p><p>Among other chip makers, Advanced Micro Devices was down 1.8% and Broadcom was falling 1.7% in premarket trading. Broadcom is reporting earnings after the market close on Thursday.</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NVDA":"英伟达"},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1142046315","content_text":"Nvidia was falling early on Thursday. The chip maker was being dragged down by fears of an artificial-intelligence bubble reignited by earnings from software and cloud-computing company Oracle.Nvidia shares were down 1.8% at $180.50 in premarket trading. Futures tied to the benchmark S&P 500 were falling 0.5%.Stocks exposed to the AI trend were being hit as Oracle slumped 12% in the premarket following earnings where guidance came in short of estimates and it raised its spending forecast. Oracle spent a record $12 billion in capital expenditures in its most recent quarter, higher than the $8.4 billion Wall Street was expecting. It also boosted its full-year capital-expenditure forecast from $35 billion to $50 billion.While capex investment has been a boost for Nvidia and other chip companies making the graphics-processing units and central-processing units powering AI, investors look to be worried such spending is unsustainable. Nvidia shareholders might have been spooked by Oracle’s comments that it will also strike deals with competing providers of chips.“We are now committed to a policy of chip neutrality where we work closely with all our CPU and GPU suppliers. Of course, we will continue to buy the latest GPUs from Nvidia, but we need to be prepared and able to deploy whatever chips our customers want to buy,” said Oracle executive chair Larry Ellison in a statement.Oracle said in October that it would expand its relationship with Advanced Micro Devices, as a launch partner for the first publicly available AI “supercluster” powered by AMD’s next-generation Instinct MI450 graphics processing units, or GPUs. The pair will deploy 50,000 chips starting in the third quarter of 2026.Among other chip makers, Advanced Micro Devices was down 1.8% and Broadcom was falling 1.7% in premarket trading. Broadcom is reporting earnings after the market close on Thursday.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NVDA":2}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1448,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}