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逐步涨

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2023-12-12

was flagged out for unusual option activity. More specifically the 5.5 call which expires in 44 days (Jan 19 24) has a high Volume to Open Interest ratio. I cross checked the short interest ratio of the stock and indeed it is elevated:

2023-03-14

[财迷]

Take stock: Winners and losers from the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank in the United States

2023-03-14

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Sorry, the original content has been removed

2023-03-14

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2023-03-14

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2023-03-14

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Fed Reports' Significant Decline in Inflation Expectations', What Happens to CPI Tonight?

2023-03-14

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Sorry, the original content has been removed

2023-03-10

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ETF Tracking | Silicon Valley Bank fell 60%, collapsing the banking sector! Bank of America ETF bargain hunting or throwing knives?

2023-03-10

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It's non-farm night again! Will there be another "bloody storm" tonight?

2023-03-10

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RLX Technology's revenue in the fourth quarter of 2022 is 340 million yuan, less than expected

2023-03-10

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2023-03-10

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Silicon Valley Bank, which hit the thunderstorm this time, is actually a top student

2023-03-10

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North-South Water Direction | Beishui buys Li Auto at the bottom of HK $400 million, with a net income of HK $1.33 billion today

2023-03-06

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Sorry, the original content has been removed

2023-03-06

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The era of "blind buying of US stocks" has come to an end, and Wall Street is looking for better investment products

2023-03-06

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The era of "blind buying of US stocks" has come to an end, and Wall Street is looking for better investment products

2023-03-06

[财迷]

Morgan Stanley is idling more again: U.S. stocks will rebound in the near future

2023-03-06

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Morgan Stanley is idling more again: U.S. stocks will rebound in the near future

2023-03-06

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Goldman Sachs Recommends Buy Apple Stock for First Time in Nearly 6 Years with $199 Price Target

2023-02-27

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@中国基金报:甲流來了，怎麼防護？

Go to Tiger App to see more news

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flagged out for unusual option activity. More specifically the 5.5 call which expires in 44 days (Jan 19 24) has a high Volume to Open Interest ratio. I cross checked the short interest ratio of the stock and indeed it is elevated:","listText":"was flagged out for unusual option activity. More specifically the 5.5 call which expires in 44 days (Jan 19 24) has a high Volume to Open Interest ratio. I cross checked the short interest ratio of the stock and indeed it is elevated:","text":"was flagged out for unusual option activity. More specifically the 5.5 call which expires in 44 days (Jan 19 24) has a high Volume to Open Interest ratio. I cross checked the short interest ratio of the stock and indeed it is elevated:","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/251302738223176","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2074,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9949549139,"gmtCreate":1678781570122,"gmtModify":1678781573506,"author":{"id":"3576374040053118","authorId":"3576374040053118","name":"逐步涨","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b860305d59f5f83146cc00f33e44b75","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576374040053118","idStr":"3576374040053118"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[财迷]&nbsp;","listText":"[财迷]&nbsp;","text":"[财迷]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9949549139","repostId":"1185557919","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1185557919","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1678777909,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1185557919?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-03-14 15:11","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Take stock: Winners and losers from the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank in the United States","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1185557919","media":"新浪财经","summary":"金融市场是零和游戏。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>The collapse of Silicon Valley Bank in the United States caused a global sensation. Who will be the beneficiaries and victims of the flash crash of this bank with technology startups as its main customer group?</p><p>The entire financial market has an essential feature of \"lucky or unfortunate\"-this is a zero-sum game. When one person becomes a loser, others will always become a winner.</p><p>After the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank, the U.S. federal government regulatory authorities made a flash move on Sunday night, announcing that all depositors could withdraw their deposits one after another, in order to appease the panic caused by the incident. However, as of Monday afternoon, the panic in the entire market had not completely disappeared, and depositors lined up in front of Silicon Valley Bank to withdraw money.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3172c4dee7cdca949de640fa1e0943b3\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"412\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>• Partial winners:</b></p><p><b>JPMorgan Chase Bank</b></p><p>The collapse of Silicon Valley Bank has sparked panic among depositors, with many beginning emergency withdrawals worried about problems at the local bank where they deposited money, while big national banks are bound to see their deposits surge.</p><p>JPMorgan Chase is the largest commercial bank in the United States by assets. Taking advantage of this Silicon Valley Bank crisis, the company will soon grab new market share. For CEO Jamie Dimon, this is another new victory.</p><p><b>Stock short selling institutions</b></p><p>For institutions that are shorting stocks of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank in New York, another bank that has recently struggled, now is the time to make a lot of money. Similarly, institutions that have shorted other local U.S. banks are in a good mood now.</p><p><b>Internet finance companies providing U.S. bond and corporate account services</b></p><p>Half of the new technology companies in the United States are Silicon Valley Bank customers. With the bank breaking out of problems, it means that a large number of technology companies need to find new places to manage their own cash.</p><p>In addition to the above-mentioned national banks that will win some customers, those Internet financial platforms that provide similar services will also benefit. For example, it was recently reported that Brex, an American financial technology company, has recently obtained billions of dollars in deposits transferred by customers of Silicon Valley Bank.</p><p><b>US Senator Warren</b></p><p>Whether the outside world likes her or hates her, Senator Warren has been fiercely criticizing Wall Street in the United States and the lack of supervision of the financial industry by the US government for many years. The collapse of Silicon Valley Bank will prove that Warren's past warnings were not jokes. Warren, who is pursuing victory, recently commented on an authoritative media in the United States, criticizing the U.S. government's rescue plan for Silicon Valley Bank.</p><p><b>Private Credit Manager Group</b></p><p>The private credit industry is also known as \"shadow banking\". After the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank, they can fill the vacancy and provide loan services to technology companies.</p><p>According to statistics, by the end of last year, the scale of the private credit industry in the United States had grown to the level of 12,000 US dollars, and the Silicon Valley Bank crisis will bring a new round of stimulus to this industry.</p><p><b>Wall Street Traders Buy Silicon Valley Bank's Uninsured Deposits Cheap</b></p><p>After the problems broke out at Silicon Valley Bank, customer deposits exceeding the $250,000 deposit insurance limit became high-risk assets, and then a group of financial companies bought these high-risk assets at extremely low prices (55 cents to buy a $1 deposit). As a result, the U.S. regulatory authorities announced that all Silicon Valley Bank customers' deposits can be withdrawn in full regardless of whether it exceeds US $250,000, so the above-mentioned bargain-hunting buyers can be said to be making crazy money this time.</p><p><b>No tech companies implicating Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank</b></p><p>These days, the offices of American technology companies must be busy, and those companies that haven't set foot in these two banks are very lucky. The asset management and risk control departments of these companies are estimated to be celebrating their luck.</p><p><b>Companies with bad news to announce at the end of the week</b></p><p>The collapse of Silicon Valley Bank has become the headlines of media attention, and everyone is paying attention to it. Therefore, companies that announce bad news are lucky that their own affairs will not be noticed by public opinion. These bad news include \"bloody financing\" (company valuation Lower than the previous round of financing transactions), layoffs or lawsuits.</p><p><b>• Partial losers:</b></p><p><b>Bank Shareholders</b></p><p>The aid plan announced by the U.S. government on Sunday night, which focuses on depositors, makes a clear message: bank shareholders can only take their own risks. U.S. capital markets read this information. On Monday, the share prices of local banks in the United States generally fell sharply.</p><p><b>Venture capital institution</b></p><p>Should U.S. venture capital firms be condemned for a run on Silicon Valley Bank? This is a controversial topic. Today, the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and the subsequent government aid plan have attracted public attention. The regulatory authorities announced that American taxpayers would not pay for this incident.</p><p>In the future, people may see financial institutions that avoided government supervision in the past, finally being rescued by the government. American venture capital institutions are likely to be described as a \"monster\" of this abnormal situation.</p><p><b>Xinchuang Technology Company</b></p><p>After the crisis initially occurred, some start-up technology companies worried that they would not be able to withdraw money from Silicon Valley Bank and pay employees. Now, it seems that this worry no longer exists.</p><p>But in the future, after retrieving deposits, technology companies need to consider where to put their cash. In the past, Silicon Valley Bank was the right-hand man of start-up technology companies. Unlike other banks, the bank was able to provide the services needed by technology companies and facilitate various transactions. In the future, which bank can provide the services of Silicon Valley Bank?</p><p><b>Local bank</b></p><p>The U.S. government's aid plan sends a message that deposits in banks are safe, and people and businesses don't need to go to other banks to run them. For other local banks, this is equivalent to a notice of peace.</p><p>However, the opposite has happened, especially in some small local banks. Shares of local banks, including First Republic Bank and First Horizon Bank, saw an avalanche plunge on Monday.</p><p><b>Goldman Sachs Group</b></p><p>In the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank, the role played by Goldman Sachs Group, a powerful American investment bank, cannot be ignored by the outside world. Previously, Goldman Sachs had helped Silicon Valley Bank plan a round of stock issuance financing, but it ultimately failed. Perhaps Silicon Valley Bank's own problems are already very serious, and it is difficult to successfully raise funds.</p><p><b>\"South by Southwest Conference\" in the United States</b></p><p>As an annual innovation convention and arts festival, the South by Southwest Conference held in March attracted a large audience, especially from the tech industry. However, the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank cast a shadow over this year's conference.</p><p><b>US Cryptocurrency Industry</b></p><p>The cryptocurrency market is now in a downturn, and this industry has missed this opportunity with Silicon Valley Bank. Imagine what kind of reaction the bankruptcy of Silicon Valley Bank would trigger if it was at the peak of the cryptocurrency market in 2021?</p><p>Public opinion may say that cryptocurrencies can avoid this kind of problem, and people should no longer trust traditional banks. Perhaps this kind of event may make the price of Bitcoin break through the $100,000 mark.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"XLCJ","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Take stock: Winners and losers from the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank in the United States</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTake stock: Winners and losers from the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank in the United States\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">新浪财经</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2023-03-14 15:11</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>The collapse of Silicon Valley Bank in the United States caused a global sensation. Who will be the beneficiaries and victims of the flash crash of this bank with technology startups as its main customer group?</p><p>The entire financial market has an essential feature of \"lucky or unfortunate\"-this is a zero-sum game. When one person becomes a loser, others will always become a winner.</p><p>After the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank, the U.S. federal government regulatory authorities made a flash move on Sunday night, announcing that all depositors could withdraw their deposits one after another, in order to appease the panic caused by the incident. However, as of Monday afternoon, the panic in the entire market had not completely disappeared, and depositors lined up in front of Silicon Valley Bank to withdraw money.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3172c4dee7cdca949de640fa1e0943b3\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"412\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>• Partial winners:</b></p><p><b>JPMorgan Chase Bank</b></p><p>The collapse of Silicon Valley Bank has sparked panic among depositors, with many beginning emergency withdrawals worried about problems at the local bank where they deposited money, while big national banks are bound to see their deposits surge.</p><p>JPMorgan Chase is the largest commercial bank in the United States by assets. Taking advantage of this Silicon Valley Bank crisis, the company will soon grab new market share. For CEO Jamie Dimon, this is another new victory.</p><p><b>Stock short selling institutions</b></p><p>For institutions that are shorting stocks of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank in New York, another bank that has recently struggled, now is the time to make a lot of money. Similarly, institutions that have shorted other local U.S. banks are in a good mood now.</p><p><b>Internet finance companies providing U.S. bond and corporate account services</b></p><p>Half of the new technology companies in the United States are Silicon Valley Bank customers. With the bank breaking out of problems, it means that a large number of technology companies need to find new places to manage their own cash.</p><p>In addition to the above-mentioned national banks that will win some customers, those Internet financial platforms that provide similar services will also benefit. For example, it was recently reported that Brex, an American financial technology company, has recently obtained billions of dollars in deposits transferred by customers of Silicon Valley Bank.</p><p><b>US Senator Warren</b></p><p>Whether the outside world likes her or hates her, Senator Warren has been fiercely criticizing Wall Street in the United States and the lack of supervision of the financial industry by the US government for many years. The collapse of Silicon Valley Bank will prove that Warren's past warnings were not jokes. Warren, who is pursuing victory, recently commented on an authoritative media in the United States, criticizing the U.S. government's rescue plan for Silicon Valley Bank.</p><p><b>Private Credit Manager Group</b></p><p>The private credit industry is also known as \"shadow banking\". After the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank, they can fill the vacancy and provide loan services to technology companies.</p><p>According to statistics, by the end of last year, the scale of the private credit industry in the United States had grown to the level of 12,000 US dollars, and the Silicon Valley Bank crisis will bring a new round of stimulus to this industry.</p><p><b>Wall Street Traders Buy Silicon Valley Bank's Uninsured Deposits Cheap</b></p><p>After the problems broke out at Silicon Valley Bank, customer deposits exceeding the $250,000 deposit insurance limit became high-risk assets, and then a group of financial companies bought these high-risk assets at extremely low prices (55 cents to buy a $1 deposit). As a result, the U.S. regulatory authorities announced that all Silicon Valley Bank customers' deposits can be withdrawn in full regardless of whether it exceeds US $250,000, so the above-mentioned bargain-hunting buyers can be said to be making crazy money this time.</p><p><b>No tech companies implicating Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank</b></p><p>These days, the offices of American technology companies must be busy, and those companies that haven't set foot in these two banks are very lucky. The asset management and risk control departments of these companies are estimated to be celebrating their luck.</p><p><b>Companies with bad news to announce at the end of the week</b></p><p>The collapse of Silicon Valley Bank has become the headlines of media attention, and everyone is paying attention to it. Therefore, companies that announce bad news are lucky that their own affairs will not be noticed by public opinion. These bad news include \"bloody financing\" (company valuation Lower than the previous round of financing transactions), layoffs or lawsuits.</p><p><b>• Partial losers:</b></p><p><b>Bank Shareholders</b></p><p>The aid plan announced by the U.S. government on Sunday night, which focuses on depositors, makes a clear message: bank shareholders can only take their own risks. U.S. capital markets read this information. On Monday, the share prices of local banks in the United States generally fell sharply.</p><p><b>Venture capital institution</b></p><p>Should U.S. venture capital firms be condemned for a run on Silicon Valley Bank? This is a controversial topic. Today, the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and the subsequent government aid plan have attracted public attention. The regulatory authorities announced that American taxpayers would not pay for this incident.</p><p>In the future, people may see financial institutions that avoided government supervision in the past, finally being rescued by the government. American venture capital institutions are likely to be described as a \"monster\" of this abnormal situation.</p><p><b>Xinchuang Technology Company</b></p><p>After the crisis initially occurred, some start-up technology companies worried that they would not be able to withdraw money from Silicon Valley Bank and pay employees. Now, it seems that this worry no longer exists.</p><p>But in the future, after retrieving deposits, technology companies need to consider where to put their cash. In the past, Silicon Valley Bank was the right-hand man of start-up technology companies. Unlike other banks, the bank was able to provide the services needed by technology companies and facilitate various transactions. In the future, which bank can provide the services of Silicon Valley Bank?</p><p><b>Local bank</b></p><p>The U.S. government's aid plan sends a message that deposits in banks are safe, and people and businesses don't need to go to other banks to run them. For other local banks, this is equivalent to a notice of peace.</p><p>However, the opposite has happened, especially in some small local banks. Shares of local banks, including First Republic Bank and First Horizon Bank, saw an avalanche plunge on Monday.</p><p><b>Goldman Sachs Group</b></p><p>In the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank, the role played by Goldman Sachs Group, a powerful American investment bank, cannot be ignored by the outside world. Previously, Goldman Sachs had helped Silicon Valley Bank plan a round of stock issuance financing, but it ultimately failed. Perhaps Silicon Valley Bank's own problems are already very serious, and it is difficult to successfully raise funds.</p><p><b>\"South by Southwest Conference\" in the United States</b></p><p>As an annual innovation convention and arts festival, the South by Southwest Conference held in March attracted a large audience, especially from the tech industry. However, the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank cast a shadow over this year's conference.</p><p><b>US Cryptocurrency Industry</b></p><p>The cryptocurrency market is now in a downturn, and this industry has missed this opportunity with Silicon Valley Bank. Imagine what kind of reaction the bankruptcy of Silicon Valley Bank would trigger if it was at the peak of the cryptocurrency market in 2021?</p><p>Public opinion may say that cryptocurrencies can avoid this kind of problem, and people should no longer trust traditional banks. Perhaps this kind of event may make the price of Bitcoin break through the $100,000 mark.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2023-03-14/doc-imykuyac8461963.shtml\">新浪财经</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3172c4dee7cdca949de640fa1e0943b3","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2023-03-14/doc-imykuyac8461963.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1185557919","content_text":"美国硅谷银行倒闭引发全球轰动，这家以科技创业公司为主要客户群体的银行闪崩，谁会是其中的受益者和受害者？整个金融市场有一个“幸运或者不幸”的本质特征——这是零和游戏，当一个人成为输家的时候，总会有其他人成为赢家。在硅谷银行倒闭之后，周日晚间，美国联邦政府监管部门闪电出手，宣布所有储户都能够陆续取出存款，目的是安抚事件引发的恐慌情绪。不过截止到周一下午，整个市场上的惊慌失措，并未完全消失，储户在硅谷银行门口排起大长龙取款。　　· 部分赢家：摩根大通银行硅谷银行倒闭在储户中引发了恐慌，许多人担心自己存钱的地方性银行发生问题，开始紧急取款，而全国性大银行势必会看到自己的存款大增。按照资产计算，摩根大通是美国最大的商业银行，利用这一次硅谷银行危机，该公司很快将攫取新的市场份额，对于首席执行官加米·迪蒙（Jamie Dimon），这又是一次新的胜利。股票做空机构对于那些做空硅谷银行和美国纽约Signature Bank（另一家最近出现问题的银行）股票的机构来说，现在是赚得盆满钵满的时候。同样，如果做空了其他美国地方性银行的机构，现在的心情也不错。提供美国债券和企业账户服务的互联网金融公司在美国的新创科技公司中，有一半属于硅谷银行客户。随着这家银行爆出问题，这意味着有大量的科技公司需要寻找管理自家现金的新场所。除了上述全国性银行将会赢得一些客户之外，那些提供类似服务的互联网金融平台也会受益。比如最近消息称，美国金融科技公司Brex最近已经获得了硅谷银行客户转移过来的几十亿美元的存款。美国参议员沃伦不论外界是喜欢她还是讨厌她，参议员沃伦过去多年一直在猛烈批评美国华尔街，以及美国政府对于金融行业的监管缺失。硅谷银行的倒闭将证明沃伦过去的警告并非戏言。乘胜追击的沃伦最近在美国一家权威媒体发表评论，批评了美国政府对于硅谷银行的拯救计划。私人信贷经理群体私人信贷行业也被称之为“影子银行”，在硅谷银行倒闭之后，他们可以填补空缺，面向科技公司提供贷款服务。据统计，到去年年底，美国的私人信贷产业规模已经发展到了1.2万美元的水平，硅谷银行危机将给这个行业带来一轮新的刺激。廉价买入硅谷银行非保险存款的华尔街交易员在硅谷银行爆出问题后，超出25万美元存款保险上限的客户存款成为高风险资产，随后有一批金融公司以极低价格（55美分买入1美元存款）买到了这些高风险资产。结果后续，美国监管部门宣布，不论是否超出25万美元，所有硅谷银行客户的存款都能够全额取出，所以上述这些抄底买家这一次可以说是赚疯了。没有牵连硅谷银行和Signature Bank的科技公司这几天，美国科技公司的办公室肯定忙的一团糟，那些没有涉足到这两家银行的公司，则属十分幸运。这些公司的资产管理和风险控制部门，估计正在庆祝自己的幸运。在上周末有坏消息要宣布的公司硅谷银行的倒闭事件成为媒体关注的头条，所有人都在关注此事，所以宣布坏消息的企业，很幸运自家的事情不会被舆论所关注，这些坏消息包括“流血融资”（公司估值低于上一轮的融资交易）、裁员计划或是诉讼。　　· 部分输家：银行股持股人美国政府周日晚间宣布的援助计划，重点是储户，这个计划明确了一个信息：银行股东只能自担风险。美国资本市场读到了这个信息，周一，美国地方性银行股价普遍大跌。风险投资机构美国的风险投资公司是否应该因为挤兑硅谷银行而遭到谴责？这是一个争议话题。如今，硅谷银行倒闭以及后续的政府援助计划引发了舆论关注。监管部门宣布，美国纳税人不会为这一次事件买单。未来，人们可能会看到过去回避政府监管的金融机构，最终被政府拯救。美国的风险投资机构很有可能被描述为这种不正常状况的一个“作妖者”。新创科技公司危机最初发生后，一些新创科技公司担心无法从硅谷银行取款，无法给员工发工资，现在看来，这个担忧已经不存在。但是未来在取回存款之后，科技公司需要考虑把现金放置在何处。过去，硅谷银行是新创科技公司的得力助手，和其他银行不同，该银行能够提供科技企业所需的服务，并且促成各种交易。未来，哪一家银行能够提供硅谷银行的服务呢？地方性银行美国政府的援助计划传递出一个信息，那就是在银行的存款是安全的，民众和企业无需去其他银行挤兑。这对于其他地方性银行来说，相当于是一个安民告示。但是，相反的事情还是发生了，尤其是在一些小规模地方性银行中。周一，包括“第一共和银行”和“第一地平线银行”等地方银行的股价出现了雪崩暴跌。高盛集团在硅谷银行倒闭事件中，高盛集团这家美国实力投资银行所扮演的角色不能被外界忽略。之前，高盛集团曾经帮助硅谷银行谋划一轮股票发行融资，但是最终失败。也许硅谷银行自身的问题已经很严重，已经难以再成功融资。美国“西南偏南大会”作为年度的创新大会和艺术节，三月份举行的美国西南偏南大会吸引了大量的观众，尤其是来自科技行业的人士。但是，硅谷银行倒闭事件给今年的大会蒙上了一层阴影。美国加密货币行业加密货币市场现在低迷，这个行业错过了硅谷银行这个机会。可以设想一下，如果是在2021年加密货币市场的巅峰时期，硅谷银行破产将会引发怎样的反应？舆论也许会说，加密货币可以避免这种问题，人们不应该再相信传统银行。没准这种事件可能会让比特币价格突破十万美元大关。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SIVB":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1714,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9949549939,"gmtCreate":1678781558621,"gmtModify":1678781562716,"author":{"id":"3576374040053118","authorId":"3576374040053118","name":"逐步涨","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b860305d59f5f83146cc00f33e44b75","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576374040053118","idStr":"3576374040053118"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[财迷]&nbsp;","listText":"[财迷]&nbsp;","text":"[财迷]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9949549939","repostId":"1138776941","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2435,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9949549070,"gmtCreate":1678781547891,"gmtModify":1678781551657,"author":{"id":"3576374040053118","authorId":"3576374040053118","name":"逐步涨","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b860305d59f5f83146cc00f33e44b75","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576374040053118","idStr":"3576374040053118"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[财迷]&nbsp;","listText":"[财迷]&nbsp;","text":"[财迷]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9949549070","repostId":"1187347737","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2125,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9949540708,"gmtCreate":1678781536805,"gmtModify":1678781540219,"author":{"id":"3576374040053118","authorId":"3576374040053118","name":"逐步涨","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b860305d59f5f83146cc00f33e44b75","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576374040053118","idStr":"3576374040053118"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[财迷]&nbsp;","listText":"[财迷]&nbsp;","text":"[财迷]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9949540708","repostId":"1145513301","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2304,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9949540419,"gmtCreate":1678781525931,"gmtModify":1678781530087,"author":{"id":"3576374040053118","authorId":"3576374040053118","name":"逐步涨","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b860305d59f5f83146cc00f33e44b75","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576374040053118","idStr":"3576374040053118"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[财迷]&nbsp;","listText":"[财迷]&nbsp;","text":"[财迷]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9949540419","repostId":"1110288097","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1110288097","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"追踪全球财经热点，精选影响您财富的资讯，投资理财必备神器！","home_visible":1,"media_name":"华尔街见闻","id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"pubTimestamp":1678780838,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1110288097?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-03-14 16:00","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Fed Reports' Significant Decline in Inflation Expectations', What Happens to CPI Tonight?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1110288097","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"经济学家预计美国整体CPI仍将处于高位。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Economists expect the overall U.S. CPI to remain high. But at a time when the Silicon Valley Bank bankruptcy crisis has roiled the outlook for monetary policy, some economists suspect the Fed won't even stick to rate hike at its next meeting. Americans' expectations for near-term inflation have fallen to nearly two-year lows. The Federal Reserve may repath its rate hike amid turmoil in the financial sector due to the Silicon Valley Bank crisis.</p><p>On Monday Eastern Time, a consumer survey released by the New York Fed showed that U.S. consumers' expectations for future inflation have dropped sharply.</p><p>Specifically, in February, the median inflation expectation for the coming year fell by 0.8 percentage points to 4.2%.<b>The lowest level since May 2021</b>, compared with 5% expected in January. Inflation expectations for the next three years remained unchanged at 2.7%, with long-term inflation expectations rising slightly: The median inflation expectation for the next five years rose by 0.1 percentage points month-on-month to 2.6%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/517481044bfb4335ec8256d3a1da062d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"531\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Consumers expect the price increase of many daily necessities and services to slow down significantly. Gasoline prices are expected to rise by 4.7% in the coming year, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month; Food price growth will continue to slow down, and it is expected to increase by 7.3%, down 1.7 percentage points from the previous month; Healthcare services inflation is expected to continue to boost core CPI at a high level, while housing inflation will slow significantly.</p><p>The survey report found that price expectations for many key components of inflation will weaken. The public's perception of the job market is more optimistic and perceptions of household finances have improved.</p><p>These interest rate expectations may change again on Tuesday morning Eastern Time when the U.S. Department of Labor will release February CPI inflation data. Economists expect that,<b>The overall U.S. CPI will slow to 6% from a year-on-year increase of 6.4%, but the core CPI, which the Federal Reserve closely watches, only slows from 5.6% to 5.5%, which is still high.</b></p><p><b>Fed Pauses rate hike Cycle?</b></p><p>The survey comes as Silicon Valley Bank announced its collapse last week, the largest bank failure in the United States since 2008. The Federal Reserve, the Treasury Department and the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) laid out a plan on Sunday to protect Silicon Valley Bank depositors' funds, including the launch of an emergency funding facility called the Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP).</p><p>The entire financial market is in panic, and uncertainty surrounding the path of the Fed's rate hike has surged.</p><p>Until last weekend, people had expected that if the inflation report remained strong, the Federal Reserve might raise the rate hike at its March meeting from 25 basis points to 50 basis points.<b>But the Silicon Valley Bank bankruptcy crisis has disrupted the outlook for monetary policy. Not only have investors' expectations for the central bank's rate hike cooled sharply, but now some economists suspect that the Fed won't even stick to the rate hike by 25 basis points.</b></p><p>Federal Reserve officials recently pointed out that the apparent cooling trend of price pressure is actually a \"mirage.\" Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell also said at a congressional hearing last week that the Fed may need to gradually increase its rate hike. However, financial stability concerns are also crucial to the review of monetary policy, which may prompt the Federal Reserve to reconsider its rate hike decision. The Fed is now in a dilemma.</p><p>Some analysts are currently opposed to rate hike. Kevin Cummins, chief U.S. economist at NatWest Markets, believes that in this context,<b>CPI certainly doesn't have that much impact on the market right now.</b></p><p>In fact, Cummins expects that the Fed may not rate hike this month, and he believes that the rate hike cycle is over:</p><p>I think if the inflation data is stronger than expected, that's also a cliche.<b>From this perspective, overheating inflation will be treated as old news if a crisis occurring in financial markets poses downside risks to the economy. If the data is weak, it may increase confidence that the Fed will pause its rate hike.</b>Cummins expects the U.S. economy to slip into recession in the second half of the year. He said the impact of Silicon Valley Bank's bankruptcy could accelerate the recession if banks reduce lending activity. And slowing economic growth may lower inflation.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Fed Reports' Significant Decline in Inflation Expectations', What Happens to CPI Tonight?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nFed Reports' Significant Decline in Inflation Expectations', What Happens to CPI Tonight?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1084101182\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">华尔街见闻 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2023-03-14 16:00</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Economists expect the overall U.S. CPI to remain high. But at a time when the Silicon Valley Bank bankruptcy crisis has roiled the outlook for monetary policy, some economists suspect the Fed won't even stick to rate hike at its next meeting. Americans' expectations for near-term inflation have fallen to nearly two-year lows. The Federal Reserve may repath its rate hike amid turmoil in the financial sector due to the Silicon Valley Bank crisis.</p><p>On Monday Eastern Time, a consumer survey released by the New York Fed showed that U.S. consumers' expectations for future inflation have dropped sharply.</p><p>Specifically, in February, the median inflation expectation for the coming year fell by 0.8 percentage points to 4.2%.<b>The lowest level since May 2021</b>, compared with 5% expected in January. Inflation expectations for the next three years remained unchanged at 2.7%, with long-term inflation expectations rising slightly: The median inflation expectation for the next five years rose by 0.1 percentage points month-on-month to 2.6%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/517481044bfb4335ec8256d3a1da062d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"531\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Consumers expect the price increase of many daily necessities and services to slow down significantly. Gasoline prices are expected to rise by 4.7% in the coming year, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month; Food price growth will continue to slow down, and it is expected to increase by 7.3%, down 1.7 percentage points from the previous month; Healthcare services inflation is expected to continue to boost core CPI at a high level, while housing inflation will slow significantly.</p><p>The survey report found that price expectations for many key components of inflation will weaken. The public's perception of the job market is more optimistic and perceptions of household finances have improved.</p><p>These interest rate expectations may change again on Tuesday morning Eastern Time when the U.S. Department of Labor will release February CPI inflation data. Economists expect that,<b>The overall U.S. CPI will slow to 6% from a year-on-year increase of 6.4%, but the core CPI, which the Federal Reserve closely watches, only slows from 5.6% to 5.5%, which is still high.</b></p><p><b>Fed Pauses rate hike Cycle?</b></p><p>The survey comes as Silicon Valley Bank announced its collapse last week, the largest bank failure in the United States since 2008. The Federal Reserve, the Treasury Department and the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) laid out a plan on Sunday to protect Silicon Valley Bank depositors' funds, including the launch of an emergency funding facility called the Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP).</p><p>The entire financial market is in panic, and uncertainty surrounding the path of the Fed's rate hike has surged.</p><p>Until last weekend, people had expected that if the inflation report remained strong, the Federal Reserve might raise the rate hike at its March meeting from 25 basis points to 50 basis points.<b>But the Silicon Valley Bank bankruptcy crisis has disrupted the outlook for monetary policy. Not only have investors' expectations for the central bank's rate hike cooled sharply, but now some economists suspect that the Fed won't even stick to the rate hike by 25 basis points.</b></p><p>Federal Reserve officials recently pointed out that the apparent cooling trend of price pressure is actually a \"mirage.\" Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell also said at a congressional hearing last week that the Fed may need to gradually increase its rate hike. However, financial stability concerns are also crucial to the review of monetary policy, which may prompt the Federal Reserve to reconsider its rate hike decision. The Fed is now in a dilemma.</p><p>Some analysts are currently opposed to rate hike. Kevin Cummins, chief U.S. economist at NatWest Markets, believes that in this context,<b>CPI certainly doesn't have that much impact on the market right now.</b></p><p>In fact, Cummins expects that the Fed may not rate hike this month, and he believes that the rate hike cycle is over:</p><p>I think if the inflation data is stronger than expected, that's also a cliche.<b>From this perspective, overheating inflation will be treated as old news if a crisis occurring in financial markets poses downside risks to the economy. If the data is weak, it may increase confidence that the Fed will pause its rate hike.</b>Cummins expects the U.S. economy to slip into recession in the second half of the year. He said the impact of Silicon Valley Bank's bankruptcy could accelerate the recession if banks reduce lending activity. And slowing economic growth may lower inflation.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df74a3173019df9d7cecb61fc0d78eea","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1110288097","content_text":"经济学家预计美国整体CPI仍将处于高位。但在硅谷银行破产危机扰乱了货币政策前景之际，一些经济学家怀疑美联储甚至不会在下次会议上坚持加息。美国人对近期通胀的预期降至近两年来的低点。在硅谷银行危机造成金融行业动荡之际，美联储可能重新调整加息路径。美东时间周一，纽约联储公布的消费者调查显示，美国消费者对未来的通胀预期大幅下降。具体来看，在2月份，未来一年的通胀预期中值下降了0.8个百分点至4.2%，为2021年5月以来的最低水平，而1月份这一预期为5%。未来三年的通胀预期维持在2.7%不变，长期通胀预期略有上升：未来五年的通胀预期中值环比上升了0.1个百分点至2.6%。消费者们预计许多日常用品和服务的价格上涨速度将显著放缓，预计未来一年汽油价格将上涨4.7%，环比下降0.4个百分点；食品价格增长将继续放缓，预计增长7.3%，环比下降1.7个百分点；医疗服务通胀预计将继续助推核心CPI居于高位，而住房通胀将显著放缓。调查报告发现，许多通胀关键组成部分的价格预期都将走软。公众对就业市场的看法更为乐观，对家庭财务状况的看法也有所改善。美东时间周二上午，美国劳工部将公布2月CPI通胀数据，届时这些利率预期可能再次发生变化。经济学家预计，美国整体CPI将从6.4%的同比涨幅放缓至6%，但美联储密切关注的核心CPI仅从5.6%放缓至5.5%，仍处于高位。美联储暂停加息周期？在这项调查出炉之际，美国硅谷银行上周宣布倒闭，是自2008年以来美国最大的银行倒闭事件。美联储、财政部和联邦存款保险公司（FDIC）周日制定了一项计划，以保护硅谷银行的储户资金，其中包括推出一项名为银行定期融资计划（Bank Term Funding Program, BTFP) 的紧急融资工具。整个金融市场上人心惶惶，围绕美联储加息路径的不确定性激增。直到上周末，人们原本预计如果此次通胀报告依然强劲，美联储可能将3月会议的加息幅度从25个基点提高至50个基点，但硅谷银行破产危机扰乱了货币政策的前景，不仅投资者对央行的加息预期急速降温，现在一些经济学家怀疑美联储甚至不会坚持加息25个基点。美联储官员近日指出，价格压力表面上的降温趋势实际上是一种“海市蜃楼”。美联储主席鲍威尔上周在国会听证会上也表示，美联储可能需要逐步加大加息力度。然而金融稳定的担忧对货币政策的审议也至关重要，可能会促使美联储重新考虑加息决定。美联储现在进退两难。一些分析师目前反对加息。NatWest Markets 首席美国经济学家 Kevin Cummins 认为，在这种背景下，CPI现在对市场的影响肯定没有那么大。事实上，Cummins 预期美联储本月可能不会加息，他认为加息周期已经结束：我认为，如果通胀数据比预期的更强劲，那也已经是老生常谈了。从这个角度来看，如果金融市场发生的危机给经济带来下行风险，通胀过热将被视为旧闻。如果数据疲软，可能会让人们更加相信美联储会暂停加息。Cummins 预计美国经济将在今年下半年陷入衰退。他表示，如果银行减少放贷活动，硅谷银行破产的影响可能会加速经济衰退。而经济增长放缓可能会降低通胀。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2745,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9949540248,"gmtCreate":1678781495885,"gmtModify":1678781499924,"author":{"id":"3576374040053118","authorId":"3576374040053118","name":"逐步涨","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b860305d59f5f83146cc00f33e44b75","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576374040053118","idStr":"3576374040053118"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[财迷]&nbsp;","listText":"[财迷]&nbsp;","text":"[财迷]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9949540248","repostId":"1121885156","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2076,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9949128674,"gmtCreate":1678445705199,"gmtModify":1678445709245,"author":{"id":"3576374040053118","authorId":"3576374040053118","name":"逐步涨","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b860305d59f5f83146cc00f33e44b75","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576374040053118","idStr":"3576374040053118"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[财迷]&nbsp;","listText":"[财迷]&nbsp;","text":"[财迷]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9949128674","repostId":"1142392712","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1142392712","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"ETF爱好者都关注了，走在被动投资最前沿","home_visible":1,"media_name":"ETF小帮手","id":"1030108964","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/53452c6d05728a1369e33ffed184d759"},"pubTimestamp":1678441582,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1142392712?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-03-10 17:46","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"ETF Tracking | Silicon Valley Bank fell 60%, collapsing the banking sector! Bank of America ETF bargain hunting or throwing knives?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1142392712","media":"ETF小帮手","summary":"隔夜惊魂一夜，美股费城银行指数暴跌7.7%，创下2020年6月份以来最差单日表现。美国的银行挤兑数量正在上升，ETF 面临风险。隔夜惊魂一夜，美股费城银行指数暴跌7.7%，创下2020年6月份以来最差","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Overnight shock, the U.S. stock Philadelphia Bank Index plummeted 7.7%, the worst single-day performance since June 2020. The number of bank runs in the U.S. is rising, and ETFs are at risk. Overnight shock, the U.S. stock Philadelphia Bank Index plummeted 7.7%, the worst single-day performance since June 2020.</p><p>On the news side, there were mainly two thunders:</p><p>For one, Silvergate, a bank focused on investing in cryptocurrencies, announced the termination of operations on Wednesday.</p><p>And second,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SIVB\">Silicon Valley Bank</a>There was a liquidity crisis, which plummeted 60% overnight, and plummeted 21% after the publication, which frightened investors.</p><p>Most bank stocks are falling sharply.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>And<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WFC\">Wells Fargo</a>Stock prices all fell more than 5% on Thursday,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SCHW\">Charles Schwab</a>Shares are down about 7%, while First Republic (FRC) shares are down 17%. Entering the crypto industry's<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SBNY\">Signature Bank</a>It's down 12%.</p><p><p style=\"text-align:left;\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e29b2657e818e6e01e5253c58d78a266\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Such a plunge has also put pressure on regional bank ETFs, The SPDR S&P Bank ETF (KRE) is down 8%, the SPDR S&P Bank ETF (KBE) is down 7.3%, and the Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLF) is down about 4%.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ad79ff6a2dbd394eabfa077ad4808d0e\" tg-width=\"1141\" tg-height=\"311\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><b>Source: ETF.com, ranked by largest to smallest AUM</b></p><p><b>What the hell is going on?</b></p><p>According to the data, on Thursday morning local time, Silicon Valley Bank announced that the sale of some securities in its investment portfolio would result in a loss of US $1.8 billion. To offset the losses, Silicon Valley Bank is seeking to raise $2.25 billion through the sale of common stock and preferred shares in what Wall Street sees as a panic asset sell-off and violent dilution of equity.</p><p>The question is, it may obviously lead to a loss of US $1.8 billion, why does Silicon Valley Bank sell its securities?</p><p>It is reported that Silicon Valley Bank is facing<b>Loss of deposits + impairment of bonds</b>The double dilemma of.</p><p>Silicon Valley Bank's securities available for sale basically consist of U.S. Treasury Bond and mortgage-backed securities, and the Federal Reserve's sharp rate hike over the past year has caused the value of bonds to fall-especially those with many years to mature.</p><p>At the same time, savers are looking for higher yields as the Federal Reserve keeps raising interest rates,<b>The increase in paper losses coincided with a decrease in bank deposits, leading to a liquidity crisis at Silicon Valley Bank.</b></p><p>Analysts pointed out that Silicon Valley Bank's liquidity crisis spooked investors because the bank has historically been a very strong and well-run bank. If even Silicon Valley Bank has problems now, investors can't help wondering what will happen to other banks that are inferior to Silicon Valley Bank in terms of assets and reputation.</p><p>What the market is most worried about is that the bursting of the technology bubble may be transmitted to the U.S. financial system, and even the financial crisis will repeat itself.</p><p>According to media reports, the panic is continuing to spread. Founder Collective, Activant Capital, USV and other institutions have recommended that companies withdraw funds from Silicon Valley Bank.</p><p>The Founders Fund, a venture capital fund co-founded by \"Silicon Valley Godfather\" Peter Thiel, recommended that the company withdraw funds from Silicon Valley Bank, saying that withdrawing funds from the bank would have no adverse effects.</p><p><b>Is it safe to buy bank ETFs now?</b></p><p>Silicon Valley Bank's sharp decline is \"sending shockwaves to the financial industry.\" This adds to concerns about rising deposit costs, weakening demand for loans, a potentially weakening credit cycle and a weakening commercial real estate market.</p><p>At this stage, given the volatility of the bond market, it is difficult to recommend investing in banks. We recently saw the 10-year bond yield exceed 4% for the first time in months, and the 2-year bond yield rise to its highest level since 2007. As a result, there will be a lot of rotation in the market as savers seek higher yields.</p><p>At the same time, it is never appropriate to catch the falling knife and fight with the Fed. With negative sentiment still creeping around, we're likely to see ETFs continue to fall in the coming days.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>ETF Tracking | Silicon Valley Bank fell 60%, collapsing the banking sector! Bank of America ETF bargain hunting or throwing knives?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nETF Tracking | Silicon Valley Bank fell 60%, collapsing the banking sector! Bank of America ETF bargain hunting or throwing knives?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1030108964\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/53452c6d05728a1369e33ffed184d759);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">ETF小帮手 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2023-03-10 17:46</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Overnight shock, the U.S. stock Philadelphia Bank Index plummeted 7.7%, the worst single-day performance since June 2020. The number of bank runs in the U.S. is rising, and ETFs are at risk. Overnight shock, the U.S. stock Philadelphia Bank Index plummeted 7.7%, the worst single-day performance since June 2020.</p><p>On the news side, there were mainly two thunders:</p><p>For one, Silvergate, a bank focused on investing in cryptocurrencies, announced the termination of operations on Wednesday.</p><p>And second,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SIVB\">Silicon Valley Bank</a>There was a liquidity crisis, which plummeted 60% overnight, and plummeted 21% after the publication, which frightened investors.</p><p>Most bank stocks are falling sharply.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>And<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WFC\">Wells Fargo</a>Stock prices all fell more than 5% on Thursday,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SCHW\">Charles Schwab</a>Shares are down about 7%, while First Republic (FRC) shares are down 17%. Entering the crypto industry's<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SBNY\">Signature Bank</a>It's down 12%.</p><p><p style=\"text-align:left;\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e29b2657e818e6e01e5253c58d78a266\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Such a plunge has also put pressure on regional bank ETFs, The SPDR S&P Bank ETF (KRE) is down 8%, the SPDR S&P Bank ETF (KBE) is down 7.3%, and the Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLF) is down about 4%.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ad79ff6a2dbd394eabfa077ad4808d0e\" tg-width=\"1141\" tg-height=\"311\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><b>Source: ETF.com, ranked by largest to smallest AUM</b></p><p><b>What the hell is going on?</b></p><p>According to the data, on Thursday morning local time, Silicon Valley Bank announced that the sale of some securities in its investment portfolio would result in a loss of US $1.8 billion. To offset the losses, Silicon Valley Bank is seeking to raise $2.25 billion through the sale of common stock and preferred shares in what Wall Street sees as a panic asset sell-off and violent dilution of equity.</p><p>The question is, it may obviously lead to a loss of US $1.8 billion, why does Silicon Valley Bank sell its securities?</p><p>It is reported that Silicon Valley Bank is facing<b>Loss of deposits + impairment of bonds</b>The double dilemma of.</p><p>Silicon Valley Bank's securities available for sale basically consist of U.S. Treasury Bond and mortgage-backed securities, and the Federal Reserve's sharp rate hike over the past year has caused the value of bonds to fall-especially those with many years to mature.</p><p>At the same time, savers are looking for higher yields as the Federal Reserve keeps raising interest rates,<b>The increase in paper losses coincided with a decrease in bank deposits, leading to a liquidity crisis at Silicon Valley Bank.</b></p><p>Analysts pointed out that Silicon Valley Bank's liquidity crisis spooked investors because the bank has historically been a very strong and well-run bank. If even Silicon Valley Bank has problems now, investors can't help wondering what will happen to other banks that are inferior to Silicon Valley Bank in terms of assets and reputation.</p><p>What the market is most worried about is that the bursting of the technology bubble may be transmitted to the U.S. financial system, and even the financial crisis will repeat itself.</p><p>According to media reports, the panic is continuing to spread. Founder Collective, Activant Capital, USV and other institutions have recommended that companies withdraw funds from Silicon Valley Bank.</p><p>The Founders Fund, a venture capital fund co-founded by \"Silicon Valley Godfather\" Peter Thiel, recommended that the company withdraw funds from Silicon Valley Bank, saying that withdrawing funds from the bank would have no adverse effects.</p><p><b>Is it safe to buy bank ETFs now?</b></p><p>Silicon Valley Bank's sharp decline is \"sending shockwaves to the financial industry.\" This adds to concerns about rising deposit costs, weakening demand for loans, a potentially weakening credit cycle and a weakening commercial real estate market.</p><p>At this stage, given the volatility of the bond market, it is difficult to recommend investing in banks. We recently saw the 10-year bond yield exceed 4% for the first time in months, and the 2-year bond yield rise to its highest level since 2007. As a result, there will be a lot of rotation in the market as savers seek higher yields.</p><p>At the same time, it is never appropriate to catch the falling knife and fight with the Fed. With negative sentiment still creeping around, we're likely to see ETFs continue to fall in the coming days.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8fd5271ba4885dabd7633b23dfb3304b","relate_stocks":{"159887":"银行ETF","161121":"银行","512800":"银行ETF","LU0390134368.USD":"FRANKLIN GLOBAL GROWTH \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4211":"区域性银行","SCHW":"嘉信理财","WFC":"富国银行","KRE":"区域银行指数ETF-SPDR KBW","BK4588":"碎股","LU1861217088.USD":"贝莱德金融科技A2","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","IAT":"安硕美国地区银行ETF","KBE":"银行指数ETF-SPDR KBW","XLF":"金融ETF","SBNY":"签字银行","LU1861220207.SGD":"Blackrock FinTech A2 SGD-H","BAC":"美国银行"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1142392712","content_text":"隔夜惊魂一夜，美股费城银行指数暴跌7.7%，创下2020年6月份以来最差单日表现。美国的银行挤兑数量正在上升，ETF 面临风险。隔夜惊魂一夜，美股费城银行指数暴跌7.7%，创下2020年6月份以来最差单日表现。消息面上，主要是爆了两个雷：其一，周三专注于投资加密货币的银行Silvergate宣布终止运营。其二，硅谷银行出现流动性危机，隔夜暴跌60%，截至发文盘后暴跌21%，把投资者都吓坏了。大多数银行股在大幅下挫。摩根大通、美国银行 和富国银行的股价周四均下跌超过 5%，嘉信理财股价下跌约 7%，而 First Republic (FRC）股价下跌 17%。进入加密行业的 Signature Bank 下跌了 12%。这样的暴跌也给地区银行ETF带来压力，SPDR S&P Bank ETF (KRE) 下跌 8%，SPDR S&P Bank ETF (KBE) 下跌 7.3%，Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLF) 下跌约 4%。数据来源：ETF.com，按资产管理规模由大到小排列到底是怎么一回事儿？资料显示，当地时间周四早晨，硅谷银行宣布，出售投资组合中的部分证券将导致18亿美元的亏损。为抵消损失，硅谷银行正寻求通过出售普通股和优先股募资22.5亿美元，这被华尔街视为是恐慌性的资产抛售和对股权的猛烈稀释。问题来了，明明可能导致18亿美元的亏损，为啥硅谷银行还要抛售手中的证券？据悉，硅谷银行正面临存款流失+债券减值的双重困境。硅谷银行可供出售的证券基本上由美国国债和抵押贷款支持证券组成，过去一年美联储大幅加息，导致债券价值下跌——尤其是那些还有很多年到期的债券。与此同时，储蓄者在美联储不断提高利率的情况下寻求更高的收益率，账面损失的增加与银行存款的减少同时出现，导致硅谷银行出现流动性危机。分析师指出，硅谷银行的流动性危机把投资者吓坏了，因为该行历来是一家非常强大、运营良好的银行。如果连硅谷银行现在都有了问题，投资者不免会想，其他那些在资产和声誉方面不如硅谷银行的银行会怎么样。市场最担心的是，科技泡沫的破灭恐怕会传导至美国的金融体系，甚至金融危机将会重演。据媒体报道，目前恐慌正在持续蔓延，Founder Collective、Activant Capital、USV等多家机构建议企业从硅谷银行取出资金。“硅谷教父”彼得蒂尔联合创立的风险投资基金Founders Fund建议公司从硅谷银行撤资，并称将资金从该行撤出没有任何不利影响。现在买入银行ETF是否安全？硅谷银行的大幅下跌正在“给金融业带来冲击波”。这加剧了人们对存款成本上升、贷款需求减弱、信贷周期可能减弱以及商业房地产市场疲软的担忧。在现阶段，考虑到债券市场的波动性，很难推荐投资于银行。我们最近看到 10 年期债券收益率数月来首次超过 4%，并且 2 年期债券收益率上升至 2007 年以来的最高水平。因此，随着储户寻求更高的收益率，市场将出现大量轮换。同时，始终不宜接住落刀并与美联储大打出手。由于负面情绪仍在四处蔓延，我们很可能会看到 ETF 在未来几天继续下跌。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"159887":1,"161121":1,"512800":1,"SCHW":1,"SIVB":1,"KBE":1,"XLF":1,"FRC":1,"SBNY":1,"WFC":1,"IAT":1,"BAC":1,"KRE":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2578,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9949128139,"gmtCreate":1678445695321,"gmtModify":1678445698768,"author":{"id":"3576374040053118","authorId":"3576374040053118","name":"逐步涨","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b860305d59f5f83146cc00f33e44b75","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576374040053118","idStr":"3576374040053118"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[财迷]&nbsp;","listText":"[财迷]&nbsp;","text":"[财迷]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9949128139","repostId":"1107576829","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1107576829","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1678442199,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1107576829?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-03-10 17:56","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"It's non-farm night again! Will there be another \"bloody storm\" tonight?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1107576829","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"华尔街普遍认为2月就业数据将显著下滑，但高于共识的数据也将助长美联储在本月加息50基点的预期。本周ADP数据超预期后，市场今夜聚焦更为重磅的非农就业报告：如果弱于预期，美联储3月或还将维持加息25基点","content":"<p><html><head></head><body><b>Wall Street generally believes that February employment data will decline significantly, but higher-than-consensus data will also fuel the Fed's expectation of a 50 basis point rate hike this month.</b>After this week's ADP data exceeded expectations, the market focused on a more heavy non-farm payrolls report tonight: if it is weaker than expected, the Federal Reserve may maintain a rate hike of 25 basis points in March; But if it is better than expected, it proves that the job market is still hot, and the 50 basis point rate hike may be \"certain.\"</p><p>At 21:30 Beijing time on Friday, the U.S. Department of Labor will release the February non-farm payrolls report.<b>Economists generally expect new jobs to slow from last month, the unemployment rate to be basically flat, and wage inflation to rise slightly.</b>Specifically:</p><p>The market generally expects 225,000 new non-farm employment in February, compared with 517,000 in January; The unemployment rate is expected to remain at 3.4%, after the Federal Reserve expected it to peak at 4.6% in 2023; Average hourly earnings are expected to rise from 4.4 to 4.8% year-on-year and 0.3% month-on-month. Forecasts from 26 large investment banks show that investment banks generally believe that the non-agricultural growth rate in February dropped sharply compared with the previous value, but there is a large gap in growth expectations among investment banks; In contrast, the annual rate of unemployment rate and average hourly wage are not much different from the previous value.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d244134dd5b6b04064cff97de1e4d33a\" tg-width=\"439\" tg-height=\"757\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Before the release of this non-farm payroll data, the U.S. ADP employment data exceeded expectations, which is usually considered as proof of the hot job market.<b>However, analysts had previously generally believed that the January employment data was \"abnormally amplified\", mainly due to seasonal factors.</b></p><p>JPMorgan believes that,<b>January data exaggerated the underlying strength of the labor market, and this situation may not be repeated in February</b>, mainly for the following reasons:</p><p>1. This figure was boosted by the end of strike action, which increased by 36,000 at one time, possibly supporting the digital increase relative to the regular seasonal pattern; 2. Warm weather conditions may help, and while similar pictures can be seen in February data, they are not as biased compared to January 3. The argument of seasonal factors was more supportive in January and may be less supportive in February. The U.S. economy needs to add a lot of jobs before seasonally adjusted to get the seasonally adjusted data higher. Although Nomura Securities agreed that the January non-farm payrolls data may have been boosted by temporary factors, Nomura believes that,<b>The weather remains warm in February, and the labor market is not expected to suffer a major reversal:</b></p><p>According to San Francisco Fed estimates, January weather factors \"seem\" to add 130,000 to non-farm payrolls, however, early February weather remained very warm by historical standards, suggesting that weather-induced growth is unlikely to be fully reversed. Weather-sensitive industries, such as construction, appeared to continue to create jobs at a steady pace in February. In addition, JPMorgan Chase noted that in addition to new jobs in February,<b>Attention should also be paid to corrections to previous data:</b></p><p>Historically, the last five times (July 2021, August 2021, November 2021, March 2022, August 2022)<b>When non-farm payrolls data is above the 3-month average, there are four downward revisions</b>。 And when the data deviates from the \"norm\", the possibility of modification is greater. JPMorgan believes<b>, revised and lower-than-expected non-farm payrolls data will be regarded as positive by the market,</b>Because it softens the near-term talk surrounding another round of inflation.</p><p>This week's non-farm payrolls data may determine the extent of interest rate hikes in March</p><p>Analysts generally believe that the non-agricultural data released this week will have an impact on the Fed's subsequent interest rate decision, and will also influence the market's expectation of peak interest rates.</p><p>Wall Street News previously mentioned that the Federal Reserve will carefully examine three key indicators of non-farm payrolls in February, namely employment, wage growth and unemployment rate.<b>If all three point to a strong labor market, perhaps even only slightly stronger than expected, it will also give the green light to a larger rate hike.</b>Only when it is significantly weaker than expected can the Fed continue to maintain the pace of rate hike of 25 basis points.</p><p>Diane Swonk, chief economist at KPMG, said a big downside \"surprise\" on employment and inflation was needed to get back on the 25 basis point track for rate hike.</p><p>Anna Wong, chief U.S. economist at Bloomberg, said:</p><p><b>If the number of non-farm payrolls is less than 200,000 and the core CPI increase is less than 0.4%, we will maintain our March rate hike forecast of 25 basis points;</b>Such as<b>If employment exceeds 300,000, this alone is enough to drive a 50 basis point rate hike.</b>Anything in between and we're going to lean towards 50 basis points, Powell has opened a pandora's box. Barclays believes that,<b>For Fed decision-making, non-agricultural data is more important than CPI</b>, because the strong growth in employment data alone is enough to drive the Fed's rate hike by 50 basis points:</p><p>Admittedly, this sensitivity to one data point seems inconsistent with Powell's emphasis on the \"overall\" of the data, if, for example, next week's February core CPI estimate is equal to or below our forecast of 0.3% month-over-month growth.<b>But our thinking is that the FOMC is likely to downplay the weak CPI data because a one-month data cannot reflect the likely evolution of inflation given the ongoing pressure on core services inflation from tight labor markets.</b>That is to say, in our opinion,<b>Another fairly strong non-farm payrolls data may be enough to convince the FOMC that it is now farther away from \"sufficiently restricted\" rates than it was thought in December and February of this year.</b>Specifically, Barclays sees a significantly lower threshold for such volatility,<b>Non-farm payrolls data growth of more than 200,000/month is a very reasonable trigger:</b></p><p>If Friday's jobs report shows that non-farm payrolls grow more than the consensus estimate (+200,000), that would be enough for rate hike by 50 basis points, and the median peak rate in 2023 would also rise to 5.6%. Therefore,<b>The non-farm payrolls report to be released this Friday will largely guide the market to interpret and forecast the FOMC meeting in late March.</b></p><p>It should be noted that,<b>Yesterday, the spread between 2-year and 10-year U.S. bond yields on the \"recession curve\" rose above 1% for the first time since 1981.</b>Recession alarm bells have sounded in the United States.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b9d6f02f269577d268397678fd7c750a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"344\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Employment slows from last month</p><p>Investment banks generally expect that the number of new jobs in February may remain strong. Although it will slow down compared with January, they have different views on the extent to which weather factors will affect the employment data in February.</p><p>Goldman Sachs expects non-farm payrolls to rise by 250,000 in February (private sector payrolls were 240,000), above the consensus estimate of 225,000:</p><p><b>Job Market Tight in February, Job Growth Tends to Stay Strong</b>--we think because some companies moved ahead of spring hiring in anticipation of spring labor shortages--and all four big data employment metrics we track did perform strongly in February. Goldman also predicts that high but declining labor demand in the United States \"will more than offset the impact of the rebound in layoffs in the information industry\",<b>Weather factors are not expected to be much of a drag in the report.</b>While temperatures partially returned to normal from an unusually warm January, there was little snow in major population centers during the February survey week, and the major winter storm of February 21 arrived three days after the end of the survey week.</p><p>Nomura expects non-farm payrolls to increase by 265,000 in February, slightly down from 517,000 in January,<b>Still well above the threshold required to keep pace with population growth.</b></p><p><b>Labor hoarding largely underpinned the employment data.</b>Given the difficulty of re-hiring in the future and the relatively optimistic business outlook, those companies that might otherwise lay off employees may have slowed the pace of layoffs at the moment:</p><p><b>On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, non-farm payrolls tend to fall significantly in January.</b>This suggests that much of January's strong growth may have been due to employers avoiding layoffs rather than accelerating hiring. While lower-than-normal seasonal layoffs may have led to fewer re-hirings in February, we believe lower-than-normal seasonal layoffs in January reflect the resilience of the labor market.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3719908f63c2f639a18ace85dd979a6d\" tg-width=\"544\" tg-height=\"524\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Deutsche Bank's forecast was higher than the consensus at 300,000, also due to mild February weather in part. Jefferies economists Aneta Markowska and Thomas Simons expect 290,000 new jobs to be created last month.</p><p>The unemployment rate remains unchanged, hourly wages rise</p><p>Investment banks generally expect the unemployment rate to remain largely around 3.4%, but wage inflation and reduced average working hours may push the hourly wage data up.</p><p>The number of people applying for unemployment benefits for the first time this week was 192,000, which was not much different from the survey window period in January. The number of people who continued to apply for unemployment benefits increased slightly from the previous month, from 1.662 million to 1.672 million.</p><p>Nomura Securities expects,<b>The U.S. unemployment rate is likely to remain at 3.4% in February, and the labor force participation rate will remain unchanged at 62.4%</b>：</p><p>Household employment may have slowed after strong growth over the past two months. However, we expect the unemployment rate to only begin to rise in the third quarter of 2023, with labor hoarding keeping it low in the first half of 2023. Credit Suisse said that due to the \"simple base effect,\"<b>The annual average hourly wage indicator should rise</b>, but added that \"underlying wage growth appears to be slowing across a range of indicators and leading indicators, but the current pace of growth remains uncomfortably high for the Fed.\"<b>The average working week is expected to drop from 34.7 hours to 34.6 hours.</b></p><p>Goldman Sachs expects that,<b>Average hourly earnings will increase by 0.30%, which will drive the year-over-year increase to 4.75%</b>, reflecting persistent but waning wage pressures and neutral calendar effects.</p><p>Nomura believes that the average hourly wage in February will increase by 0.4% month-on-month.<b>This is partly due to a decline in average hours worked from January and signs that wage inflation is accelerating:</b></p><p>Some wage growth metrics, including the ADP wage growth data and the Indeed wage tracker, have stabilized recently.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/53391269f0244665f4592ff65fcd0030\" tg-width=\"552\" tg-height=\"498\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>In addition, Nomura found that,<b>Inflation expectations appear to have become an important factor in the wage setting process:</b></p><p>Short-term inflation expectations surveyed by the University of Michigan rebounded in February, suggesting wage deflation due to lower inflation expectations may not be sustainable.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/07158ae608b72efe43c4c94798d7067f\" tg-width=\"552\" tg-height=\"563\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>While short-term inflation expectations tend to be volatile, for that matter, any unexpected upside in average hourly earnings could add to the Fed's concerns about the risk of another acceleration in inflation.</body></html></p>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>It's non-farm night again! Will there be another \"bloody storm\" tonight?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIt's non-farm night again! Will there be another \"bloody storm\" tonight?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2023-03-10 17:56</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><b>Wall Street generally believes that February employment data will decline significantly, but higher-than-consensus data will also fuel the Fed's expectation of a 50 basis point rate hike this month.</b>After this week's ADP data exceeded expectations, the market focused on a more heavy non-farm payrolls report tonight: if it is weaker than expected, the Federal Reserve may maintain a rate hike of 25 basis points in March; But if it is better than expected, it proves that the job market is still hot, and the 50 basis point rate hike may be \"certain.\"</p><p>At 21:30 Beijing time on Friday, the U.S. Department of Labor will release the February non-farm payrolls report.<b>Economists generally expect new jobs to slow from last month, the unemployment rate to be basically flat, and wage inflation to rise slightly.</b>Specifically:</p><p>The market generally expects 225,000 new non-farm employment in February, compared with 517,000 in January; The unemployment rate is expected to remain at 3.4%, after the Federal Reserve expected it to peak at 4.6% in 2023; Average hourly earnings are expected to rise from 4.4 to 4.8% year-on-year and 0.3% month-on-month. Forecasts from 26 large investment banks show that investment banks generally believe that the non-agricultural growth rate in February dropped sharply compared with the previous value, but there is a large gap in growth expectations among investment banks; In contrast, the annual rate of unemployment rate and average hourly wage are not much different from the previous value.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d244134dd5b6b04064cff97de1e4d33a\" tg-width=\"439\" tg-height=\"757\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Before the release of this non-farm payroll data, the U.S. ADP employment data exceeded expectations, which is usually considered as proof of the hot job market.<b>However, analysts had previously generally believed that the January employment data was \"abnormally amplified\", mainly due to seasonal factors.</b></p><p>JPMorgan believes that,<b>January data exaggerated the underlying strength of the labor market, and this situation may not be repeated in February</b>, mainly for the following reasons:</p><p>1. This figure was boosted by the end of strike action, which increased by 36,000 at one time, possibly supporting the digital increase relative to the regular seasonal pattern; 2. Warm weather conditions may help, and while similar pictures can be seen in February data, they are not as biased compared to January 3. The argument of seasonal factors was more supportive in January and may be less supportive in February. The U.S. economy needs to add a lot of jobs before seasonally adjusted to get the seasonally adjusted data higher. Although Nomura Securities agreed that the January non-farm payrolls data may have been boosted by temporary factors, Nomura believes that,<b>The weather remains warm in February, and the labor market is not expected to suffer a major reversal:</b></p><p>According to San Francisco Fed estimates, January weather factors \"seem\" to add 130,000 to non-farm payrolls, however, early February weather remained very warm by historical standards, suggesting that weather-induced growth is unlikely to be fully reversed. Weather-sensitive industries, such as construction, appeared to continue to create jobs at a steady pace in February. In addition, JPMorgan Chase noted that in addition to new jobs in February,<b>Attention should also be paid to corrections to previous data:</b></p><p>Historically, the last five times (July 2021, August 2021, November 2021, March 2022, August 2022)<b>When non-farm payrolls data is above the 3-month average, there are four downward revisions</b>。 And when the data deviates from the \"norm\", the possibility of modification is greater. JPMorgan believes<b>, revised and lower-than-expected non-farm payrolls data will be regarded as positive by the market,</b>Because it softens the near-term talk surrounding another round of inflation.</p><p>This week's non-farm payrolls data may determine the extent of interest rate hikes in March</p><p>Analysts generally believe that the non-agricultural data released this week will have an impact on the Fed's subsequent interest rate decision, and will also influence the market's expectation of peak interest rates.</p><p>Wall Street News previously mentioned that the Federal Reserve will carefully examine three key indicators of non-farm payrolls in February, namely employment, wage growth and unemployment rate.<b>If all three point to a strong labor market, perhaps even only slightly stronger than expected, it will also give the green light to a larger rate hike.</b>Only when it is significantly weaker than expected can the Fed continue to maintain the pace of rate hike of 25 basis points.</p><p>Diane Swonk, chief economist at KPMG, said a big downside \"surprise\" on employment and inflation was needed to get back on the 25 basis point track for rate hike.</p><p>Anna Wong, chief U.S. economist at Bloomberg, said:</p><p><b>If the number of non-farm payrolls is less than 200,000 and the core CPI increase is less than 0.4%, we will maintain our March rate hike forecast of 25 basis points;</b>Such as<b>If employment exceeds 300,000, this alone is enough to drive a 50 basis point rate hike.</b>Anything in between and we're going to lean towards 50 basis points, Powell has opened a pandora's box. Barclays believes that,<b>For Fed decision-making, non-agricultural data is more important than CPI</b>, because the strong growth in employment data alone is enough to drive the Fed's rate hike by 50 basis points:</p><p>Admittedly, this sensitivity to one data point seems inconsistent with Powell's emphasis on the \"overall\" of the data, if, for example, next week's February core CPI estimate is equal to or below our forecast of 0.3% month-over-month growth.<b>But our thinking is that the FOMC is likely to downplay the weak CPI data because a one-month data cannot reflect the likely evolution of inflation given the ongoing pressure on core services inflation from tight labor markets.</b>That is to say, in our opinion,<b>Another fairly strong non-farm payrolls data may be enough to convince the FOMC that it is now farther away from \"sufficiently restricted\" rates than it was thought in December and February of this year.</b>Specifically, Barclays sees a significantly lower threshold for such volatility,<b>Non-farm payrolls data growth of more than 200,000/month is a very reasonable trigger:</b></p><p>If Friday's jobs report shows that non-farm payrolls grow more than the consensus estimate (+200,000), that would be enough for rate hike by 50 basis points, and the median peak rate in 2023 would also rise to 5.6%. Therefore,<b>The non-farm payrolls report to be released this Friday will largely guide the market to interpret and forecast the FOMC meeting in late March.</b></p><p>It should be noted that,<b>Yesterday, the spread between 2-year and 10-year U.S. bond yields on the \"recession curve\" rose above 1% for the first time since 1981.</b>Recession alarm bells have sounded in the United States.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b9d6f02f269577d268397678fd7c750a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"344\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Employment slows from last month</p><p>Investment banks generally expect that the number of new jobs in February may remain strong. Although it will slow down compared with January, they have different views on the extent to which weather factors will affect the employment data in February.</p><p>Goldman Sachs expects non-farm payrolls to rise by 250,000 in February (private sector payrolls were 240,000), above the consensus estimate of 225,000:</p><p><b>Job Market Tight in February, Job Growth Tends to Stay Strong</b>--we think because some companies moved ahead of spring hiring in anticipation of spring labor shortages--and all four big data employment metrics we track did perform strongly in February. Goldman also predicts that high but declining labor demand in the United States \"will more than offset the impact of the rebound in layoffs in the information industry\",<b>Weather factors are not expected to be much of a drag in the report.</b>While temperatures partially returned to normal from an unusually warm January, there was little snow in major population centers during the February survey week, and the major winter storm of February 21 arrived three days after the end of the survey week.</p><p>Nomura expects non-farm payrolls to increase by 265,000 in February, slightly down from 517,000 in January,<b>Still well above the threshold required to keep pace with population growth.</b></p><p><b>Labor hoarding largely underpinned the employment data.</b>Given the difficulty of re-hiring in the future and the relatively optimistic business outlook, those companies that might otherwise lay off employees may have slowed the pace of layoffs at the moment:</p><p><b>On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, non-farm payrolls tend to fall significantly in January.</b>This suggests that much of January's strong growth may have been due to employers avoiding layoffs rather than accelerating hiring. While lower-than-normal seasonal layoffs may have led to fewer re-hirings in February, we believe lower-than-normal seasonal layoffs in January reflect the resilience of the labor market.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3719908f63c2f639a18ace85dd979a6d\" tg-width=\"544\" tg-height=\"524\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Deutsche Bank's forecast was higher than the consensus at 300,000, also due to mild February weather in part. Jefferies economists Aneta Markowska and Thomas Simons expect 290,000 new jobs to be created last month.</p><p>The unemployment rate remains unchanged, hourly wages rise</p><p>Investment banks generally expect the unemployment rate to remain largely around 3.4%, but wage inflation and reduced average working hours may push the hourly wage data up.</p><p>The number of people applying for unemployment benefits for the first time this week was 192,000, which was not much different from the survey window period in January. The number of people who continued to apply for unemployment benefits increased slightly from the previous month, from 1.662 million to 1.672 million.</p><p>Nomura Securities expects,<b>The U.S. unemployment rate is likely to remain at 3.4% in February, and the labor force participation rate will remain unchanged at 62.4%</b>：</p><p>Household employment may have slowed after strong growth over the past two months. However, we expect the unemployment rate to only begin to rise in the third quarter of 2023, with labor hoarding keeping it low in the first half of 2023. Credit Suisse said that due to the \"simple base effect,\"<b>The annual average hourly wage indicator should rise</b>, but added that \"underlying wage growth appears to be slowing across a range of indicators and leading indicators, but the current pace of growth remains uncomfortably high for the Fed.\"<b>The average working week is expected to drop from 34.7 hours to 34.6 hours.</b></p><p>Goldman Sachs expects that,<b>Average hourly earnings will increase by 0.30%, which will drive the year-over-year increase to 4.75%</b>, reflecting persistent but waning wage pressures and neutral calendar effects.</p><p>Nomura believes that the average hourly wage in February will increase by 0.4% month-on-month.<b>This is partly due to a decline in average hours worked from January and signs that wage inflation is accelerating:</b></p><p>Some wage growth metrics, including the ADP wage growth data and the Indeed wage tracker, have stabilized recently.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/53391269f0244665f4592ff65fcd0030\" tg-width=\"552\" tg-height=\"498\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>In addition, Nomura found that,<b>Inflation expectations appear to have become an important factor in the wage setting process:</b></p><p>Short-term inflation expectations surveyed by the University of Michigan rebounded in February, suggesting wage deflation due to lower inflation expectations may not be sustainable.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/07158ae608b72efe43c4c94798d7067f\" tg-width=\"552\" tg-height=\"563\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>While short-term inflation expectations tend to be volatile, for that matter, any unexpected upside in average hourly earnings could add to the Fed's concerns about the risk of another acceleration in inflation.</body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3683666\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9963fdf0bdb1101a0e95978b643c3c62","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3683666","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1107576829","content_text":"华尔街普遍认为2月就业数据将显著下滑，但高于共识的数据也将助长美联储在本月加息50基点的预期。本周ADP数据超预期后，市场今夜聚焦更为重磅的非农就业报告：如果弱于预期，美联储3月或还将维持加息25基点；但若好于预期，证明就业市场依旧火热，50基点加息可能“板上钉钉”。北京时间周五21:30，美国劳工部将发布2月非农就业报告。经济学家普遍预计新增就业将较上月有所放缓，失业率基本持平，工资通胀将小幅上行，具体而言：市场普遍预期2月新增非农就业人数22.5万，1月为51.7万；失业率预计将维持在3.4%，此前美联储预计失业率将在2023年达到4.6%的峰值；平均时薪同比预计将从4.4上升至4.8%，环比预计将上升0.3%。26家大型投行预测显示，投行普遍认为2月非农增速相比前值大幅下滑，但投行之间的增幅预期差距较大；相比之下失业率和平均时薪年率和前值相差不大。在本次非农数据公布之前，美国ADP就业数据超出预期，这通常被认为是就业市场火热的证明。然而分析师们此前普遍认为1月就业数据被“异常地放大”，这主要是由于季节性因素。摩根大通认为，1月数据夸大了劳动力市场的潜在实力，而这种情况可能不会在2月份重演，主要有一下几个原因：1. 这一数字受到了罢工行动结束的提振，罢工行动一次性增加了3.6万，可能支持了相对于常规季节性模式的数字增长；2. 温暖的天气条件可能有所帮助，虽然在2月份的数据中可以看到类似的情况，但与1月份相比，它们的偏差没有那么大3. 季节性因素的说法在1月份支持度较高，2月份支持度可能较低，美国经济需要在季节性调整前增加大量就业岗位，才能让经季节性调整的数据走高。尽管野村证券同意1月非农就业数据可能受到了临时因素的提振的说法，但野村认为，2月天气仍然温暖，预计劳动市场不会受到大幅度的逆转：根据旧金山联储的估计，1月份的天气因素“似乎”使得非农数据增加了13万，然而，从历史标准来看，2月初的天气仍然非常温暖，这表明天气导致的增长不太可能全面逆转。对天气敏感的行业，如建筑业，在2月份似乎继续以稳定的速度创造就业机会。此外，摩根大通指出，除了2月份的新增就业人数外，还应关注对先前数据的修正：从历史上看，过去五次（2021年7月、2021年8月、2021年11月、2022年3月、2022年8月）非农就业数据高于3个月平均值时，四次出现了向下修正。并且当数据偏离“规范”时，修改的可能性更大。摩根大通认为，修正以及低于预期的非农就业数据将被市场视为利好，因为它软化了近期围绕另一轮通胀的说法。本周非农数据或将决定3月升息幅度分析师普遍认为，本周公布的非农数据将对美联储后续利率决议产生影响，同时也将左右市场对峰值利率的预期。华尔街见闻此前提及，美联储将仔细审查2月非农的三个关键指标，即就业人数、工资增速和失业率。如果三者都指向强劲的劳动力市场，甚至可能仅略强于预期，也将为更大幅度的加息开绿灯。而只有大幅弱于预期，美联储才可能继续保持25个基点的加息步伐。毕马威首席经济学家Diane Swonk称，需要在就业和通胀方面出现大的下行“惊喜”，才能回到加息25个基点的轨道上。彭博美国首席经济学家Anna Wong表示：如果非农就业人数少于20万，核心CPI涨幅低于0.4%，我们将维持3月份加息25个基点的预测；如果就业人数超过30万，仅此一项就足以推动50个基点的加息。任何介于两者之间的情况，我们都将倾向于50个基点，鲍威尔已经打开了潘多拉魔盒。巴克莱则认为，对于美联储决策而言，非农数据比CPI更重要，因为仅就业数据强劲增长本身就足以推动美联储加息50基点：不可否认，这种对一个数据点的敏感似乎与鲍威尔对数据“整体”的重视不一致，例如，如果下周的2月核心CPI估计值等于或低于我们预测的环比增长0.3%。但我们的想法是，FOMC很可能会淡化疲软的CPI数据，因为考虑到劳动力市场紧张对核心服务通胀的持续压力，一个月的数据无法反映通胀的可能演变。也就是说，在我们看来，如果再出现一个相当强劲的非农就业数据，可能就足以让FOMC相信，与去年12月和今年2月所认为的相比，现在距离“充分限制”的利率更远了。具体而言，巴克莱认为这种波动的门槛明显较低，非农就业数据增长超过20万/月是非常合理的触发因素：如果周五的就业报告显示非农就业人数增长超过共识预期(+20万)，就足以加息50个基点，2023年的峰值利率中值也将上升至5.6%。因此，本周五即将公布的非农就业报告很大程度上将引导市场对于3月下旬的FOMC会议进行解读和预测。需要注意的是，昨日“衰退曲线”2年期和10年期美债收益率的利差自1981年以来首次升至1%以上，美国经济衰退警钟已经敲响。就业人数较上月放缓投行普遍预计，2月新增就业人数可能依旧强劲，尽管会相对1月有所放缓，但在对于天气因素多大程度上将影响2月就业数据方面观点有所不同。高盛预计2月份非农就业人数将增加25万(私营部门就业人数为24万)，高于22.5万的普遍预期：2月份就业市场紧张，就业增长倾向于保持强劲——我们认为，因为一些公司预计春季劳动力短缺，提前进行了春季招聘——而且我们跟踪的所有四个大数据就业指标在2月份确实表现强劲。高盛还预计，美国劳动力需求虽高但不断下降，“将远远抵消信息行业裁员反弹的影响”，预计天气因素不会在报告中产生太大拖累。虽然气温从异常温暖的1月份部分恢复正常，但在2月份的调查周，主要人口中心几乎没有降雪，2月21日的主要冬季风暴在调查周结束三天后到达。野村预计2月非农就业人数将增加26.5万，略低于1月的51.7万，仍远高于与人口增长保持同步所需的门槛。劳动力囤积在很大程度上支撑了就业数据。考虑到未来重新招聘的难度和相对乐观的商业前景，那些原本可能裁员的公司目前可能放慢了裁员的步伐：在非季节性调整的基础上，非农就业往往在1月份大幅下降。这表明，1月份的强劲增长在很大程度上可能是由于雇主避免裁员，而不是加速招聘。虽然季节性裁员低于正常水平可能导致2月份再招聘人数减少，但我们认为1月份季节性裁员低于正常水平反映了劳动力市场的弹性。德意志银行的预期高于共识，为30万人，原因之一同样是2月温和的天气。Jefferies的经济学家Aneta Markowska和Thomas Simons预计上月新增就业29万人。失业率保持不变，工资时薪有所上升投行普遍预计失业率将基本保持在3.4%左右的水平，但工资通胀和平均工作时间减少可能会使时薪数据上升。本周首次申请失业救济人数为19.2万，与1月调查窗口期相差不大，继续申请失业救济人数较上月有小幅上升，从166.2万增至167.2万。野村证券预计，美国2月的失业率可能会维持在3.4%，劳动参与率保持在62.4%不变：在过去两个月的强劲增长之后，家庭就业可能已经放缓。不过，我们预计失业率只会在2023年第三季度开始上升，劳动力囤积使失业率在2023年上半年保持在低水平。瑞士信贷表示，由于“简单的基数效应”，年度平均时薪指标应该会上升，但补充说，“在一系列指标和先行指标中，潜在的工资增长似乎正在放缓，但目前的增长速度对美联储来说仍然高得令人不安。”预计平均每周工作时间将从34.7小时降至34.6小时。高盛预计，平均时薪将增长0.30%，这将推动同比增幅达到4.75%，反映出持续但逐渐减弱的工资压力和中性的日历效应。野村认为2月平均时薪将环比增加0.4%，部分原因是平均工作时长较1月份有所下降，且有迹象表明工资通胀正在加速：一些工资增长指标，包括ADP工资增长数据和Indeed工资跟踪数据，最近已经企稳。此外野村发现，通胀预期似乎已经成为工资设定过程中的一个重要因素：密歇根大学调查的短期通胀预期在2月份出现反弹，这表明通胀预期降低导致的工资通缩可能无法持续。尽管短期通胀预期往往是不稳定的，但就此而言，平均时薪的任何意外上行都可能加剧美联储对通胀再次加速风险的担忧。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2459,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9949128313,"gmtCreate":1678445683933,"gmtModify":1678445687653,"author":{"id":"3576374040053118","authorId":"3576374040053118","name":"逐步涨","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b860305d59f5f83146cc00f33e44b75","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576374040053118","idStr":"3576374040053118"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[财迷]&nbsp;","listText":"[财迷]&nbsp;","text":"[财迷]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9949128313","repostId":"1109757851","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1109757851","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1678442733,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1109757851?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-03-10 18:05","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"RLX Technology's revenue in the fourth quarter of 2022 is 340 million yuan, less than expected","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1109757851","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"四季度净利润（亿元）：-2.28，前值：4.94。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RLX\">RLX Technology</a>Revenue in the fourth quarter of 2022 (100 million yuan):<b>3.4，</b>Expected: 5.46, previous value: 19.04.</p><p>Net profit in the fourth quarter (100 million yuan):<b>-2.28，</b>Previous value: 4.94.</p><p>Non-GAAP net profit in the fourth quarter was 246 million yuan, compared with 536 million yuan in the same period in 2021.</p><p>Gross profit margin in the fourth quarter was 43.6%, compared with 40.2% in the same period in 2021.</p><p>The annual revenue in 2022 will be 5.333 billion yuan, compared with 8.521 billion yuan in the same period last year; Net profit was 1.441 billion yuan, compared with 2.025 billion yuan in the same period last year; The profit per ADS was 1.085 yuan, compared with 1.436 yuan in the same period last year.</p><p>As of press time, RLX Technology fell more than 5% before the market.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6e93e34cacf732b7ab9b63db556341c7\" tg-width=\"449\" tg-height=\"450\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>RLX Technology's revenue in the fourth quarter of 2022 is 340 million yuan, less than expected</title>\n<style 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#7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nRLX Technology's revenue in the fourth quarter of 2022 is 340 million yuan, less than expected\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2023-03-10 18:05</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RLX\">RLX Technology</a>Revenue in the fourth quarter of 2022 (100 million yuan):<b>3.4，</b>Expected: 5.46, previous value: 19.04.</p><p>Net profit in the fourth quarter (100 million yuan):<b>-2.28，</b>Previous value: 4.94.</p><p>Non-GAAP net profit in the fourth quarter was 246 million yuan, compared with 536 million yuan in the same period in 2021.</p><p>Gross profit margin in the fourth quarter was 43.6%, compared with 40.2% in the same period in 2021.</p><p>The annual revenue in 2022 will be 5.333 billion yuan, compared with 8.521 billion yuan in the same period last year; Net profit was 1.441 billion yuan, compared with 2.025 billion yuan in the same period last year; The profit per ADS was 1.085 yuan, compared with 1.436 yuan in the same period last year.</p><p>As of press time, RLX Technology fell more than 5% before the market.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6e93e34cacf732b7ab9b63db556341c7\" tg-width=\"449\" tg-height=\"450\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2edf9f40433de9411118b65473b80b0c","relate_stocks":{"RLX":"雾芯科技"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1109757851","content_text":"RLX科技2022年四季度营收（亿元）：3.4，预期：5.46，前值：19.04。四季度净利润（亿元）：-2.28，前值：4.94。四季度Non-GAAP净利润为2.46亿元，而2021年同期为5.36亿元。四季度毛利率为43.6%，而2021年同期为40.2%。2022年全年营收53.33亿元，上年同期85.21亿元；净利润14.41亿元，上年同期20.25亿元；每ADS盈利1.085元，上年同期1.436元。截至发稿，RLX科技盘前跌超5%。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"RLX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2263,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9949128963,"gmtCreate":1678445672252,"gmtModify":1678445676065,"author":{"id":"3576374040053118","authorId":"3576374040053118","name":"逐步涨","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b860305d59f5f83146cc00f33e44b75","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576374040053118","idStr":"3576374040053118"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[财迷]&nbsp;","listText":"[财迷]&nbsp;","text":"[财迷]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9949128963","repostId":"1120393556","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":559,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9949121774,"gmtCreate":1678445654198,"gmtModify":1678445658250,"author":{"id":"3576374040053118","authorId":"3576374040053118","name":"逐步涨","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b860305d59f5f83146cc00f33e44b75","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576374040053118","idStr":"3576374040053118"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[财迷]&nbsp;","listText":"[财迷]&nbsp;","text":"[财迷]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9949121774","repostId":"1115404762","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1115404762","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1678443758,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1115404762?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-03-10 18:22","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Silicon Valley Bank, which hit the thunderstorm this time, is actually a top student","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1115404762","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"隔夜美国银行业的暴跌，成了震动整个市场的黑天鹅事件。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body><b>Just on February 14 this year, Silicon Valley Bank also appeared on Forbes magazine's \"Top 100 Banks in the United States in 2023\" list, ranking 5th in California and 20th in the United States with its excellent profitability.</b>The plunge of the U.S. banking industry overnight became a black swan event that shook the entire market. At the center of the vortex is a large commercial bank with a history of nearly 40 years-Silicon Valley Bank (hereinafter referred to as SVB). After the release of a financing announcement that didn't seem to be a big problem, the stock price of SVB Financial Group, the parent company of SVB, crashed by 60%, and fell by more than 40% before the market today.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c5da7ade76be1b07f1d0ba111d6571d9\" tg-width=\"818\" tg-height=\"506\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>The market value plummeted by nearly 10 billion dollars, many investors and depositors fled, and the company's credit rating was downgraded by Moody's... The largest bank in Silicon Valley was tottering overnight. Technology media The Information even commented that the best way to calm things down now is for a larger bank to acquire SVB.</p><p>SVB's official website states the bank's vision: to help individuals, investors and the world's most innovative companies realize their ambitions.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4dc31e54a57bad47d23a24ce6c93fd7c\" tg-width=\"634\" tg-height=\"140\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>From \"financial partner of innovative economies\" to encountering an all-round run, how did SVB get to this point? Combined with the research report released by Guohai Securities analyst Jin Yi in 2020, Wall Street Insights conducted a detailed review of the development history of SVB.</p><p><b>Started with poker</b></p><p>In the 1960s and 1970s, due to its proximity to famous institutions of higher learning such as Stanford University and the University of California, Berkeley, and local preferential policies such as tax incentives and government loan guarantees, Silicon Valley gradually became a hot spot for knowledge and adventurers, and technology companies blossomed here.</p><p>Emerging tech companies need capital to get started. But,<b>Among the corporate assets of these start-ups, intangible assets such as intellectual property rights account for the majority, so it is difficult for enterprises to obtain enough loans from commercial banks by mortgaging fixed assets. There is an urgent need for a professional commercial bank that can understand the development logic of technology companies to help start-ups grow and fill the gaps in the market.</b></p><p>Roger Smith and Bill Biggerstaff from Wells Fargo, as well as Stanford professor Robert Medearis, captured the opportunity astutely. The trio co-founded SVB in 1982.</p><p>In the initial stage, the three founders knew that they had to learn from and rely on the rich customer resources and industry experience of existing venture capital firms in Silicon Valley.<b>And the way they expand their contacts is also very interesting-actively participating in poker games of all sizes in Silicon Valley. In the end, everyone in these poker groups has invested at least $10,000 in SVB.</b></p><p>In the end, relying on the founder's network resources and hard lobbying, SVB attracted many famous entrepreneurs and activists in Silicon Valley to invest in shares, attracting an investment of US $5 million.</p><p>This part of the shareholder group also provided SVB's earliest business resources, allowing SVB to accumulate valuable first-mover advantages in the field of risk lending.</p><p><b>Unique business model</b></p><p>During the development of the 1990s, SVB's business framework was gradually determined.</p><p>Although SVB is no different from traditional commercial banks in terms of business scope, it is involved in deposits, loans, international settlement and other businesses.<b>But what's special is that it mainly serves emerging tech companies in computers, life sciences, clean energy and more, as well as private equity/venture capital funds. In addition, SVB will also bridge the gap between investment institutions and start-ups.</b></p><p><b>Partnership with venture capital is SVB's core business model.</b>Therefore, its business follows the venture capital. In Silicon Valley in the 1980s and 1990s, SVB executives were there where venture capitalists were meeting.</p><p>SVB generally adopts a co-investment model for start-up credit, that is, after the enterprise obtains venture capital equity investment, it approves the credit line according to a certain proportion. Credit may require third-party guarantees such as venture capital, or intellectual property mortgages.</p><p>Finally, SVB obtains income by charging higher interest than general corporate loans, and may also obtain a certain percentage of corporate warrants in order to increase income in the future. In addition, SVB also provides credit support to venture capital companies, providing bridge loan support when the latter's projects require capital investment but liquidity is in short supply.</p><p>Due to risk control considerations, most banks dare not set foot in the start-up credit market. However, SVB has established a set of loan approval processes specifically for technology start-ups from three aspects: pre-loan, during-loan, and after-loan.</p><p><ul><li><b>First of all, before lending, SVB adopts a follow-up investment strategy.</b>Only after obtaining investment from venture capital funds can enterprises obtain a certain percentage of SVB loans, usually about 1/4 of the venture capital investment amount. With the expertise of venture capital funds, SVB has screened out promising start-ups. If a company is favored by multiple venture capitalists at the same time, the probability of successfully applying for an SVB loan will be greatly increased. In addition, in order to further improve the ability to identify technology companies, SVB has also specially trained a group of researchers with professional knowledge backgrounds to participate in credit approval.</li><li><b>In loans, SVB requires different loan conditions according to the characteristics of different start-ups.</b>For start-ups that have no income yet, the company requires enterprises to use intellectual patents as qualitative rather than quantitative mortgages, so that even if enterprises default, they can make up for certain losses by selling patents to large enterprises.</li><li><b>After the loan, SVB requires enterprises to open capital accounts in the bank.</b>By monitoring the daily capital inflow and outflow of enterprises, banks can grasp the operating conditions of enterprises from the side, and timely give liquidity early warning and early disposal to enterprises that lack funds to repay loans. In addition, SVB will also communicate closely with the company's investment institutions to indirectly understand the company's development status.</li></ul><b>Towards full-cycle operation</b></p><p>With its prudent business strategy and excellent business model, SVB's performance has been moving forward steadily.<b>Even in the face of a black swan event such as the bursting of the Internet bubble in the millennium, the strict loan approval process allowed SVB to remain profitable throughout the bursting of the bubble, and the non-performing loan ratio even dropped to a certain extent.</b></p><p>However, in the bear market of that year, due to the reduction of business opportunities, the scale of SVB bank loans still suffered a certain degree of shrinkage. Therefore, through the policy window of mixed operations in the banking industry, SVB began to get involved in venture capital, investment banking, private banking, asset management and other services.</p><p>Moreover, as the scale grows, SVB finally has the ability to meet the financing needs of large enterprises. SVB has formulated three service plans according to the start-up stage, growth stage, and maturity stage of the enterprise, namely \"SVB Accelerator\", \"SVB Growth\", and \"SVB Corporate Finance\", covering the entire life cycle of the enterprise.</p><p><ul><li>\"SVB Accelerator\" provides the following services for high-tech enterprises in the start-up stage: First, it sends dedicated service representatives to work with start-ups to understand and feed back the unique banking needs of enterprises; The second is to provide enterprises with financial products and services such as competitive entrepreneurial term loans and \"combination of investment and loan\"; The third is to build an online commercial banking service platform to help entrepreneurs expand their networks and find potential investors for entrepreneurs.</li><li>\"SVB Growth\" includes the following financial products and services: First, provide flexible loan solutions, including mezzanine financing, medium-term guaranteed financing, and provide loan receivable lines; The second is to build a global fund management platform to provide international business services for enterprises, provide offshore accounts, carry out foreign exchange exchange and payment, and simplify the transaction process; The third is to customize investment plans for customers; The fourth is to provide asset management and securities services.</li><li>\"SVB Corporate Finance\" services include: long-term loans, trade finance, various types of loans receivable and working capital credit, asset management and securities, financial advisory services, global cash management, foreign exchange exchange, etc. and group services.</li></ul><b>Will the building collapse or an oolong incident?</b></p><p>To sum up, it is not difficult to find that the business model built by SVB is excellent:</p><p>In terms of interest income, SVB relies on the \"high interest spread\" strategy.</p><p><ul><li>On the liability side, by absorbing deposits from venture capital companies and technology companies at the same time, banks can achieve the purpose of retaining funds within banks to the maximum extent even if they are transferred between investors and invested companies. At the same time, the loan conditions additionally require corporate deposits to be interest-free, which greatly reduces the cost of the liability side.</li><li>On the asset side, by providing credit to technology start-ups that are relatively insensitive to interest rates, the yield on credit assets has been raised, and \"high interest spreads\" have ultimately been achieved.</li></ul>In terms of non-interest income, SVB has established a \"mixed operation\" strategy. In addition to participating in venture capital funds and establishing an information customer network to facilitate business analysis and consulting, it also directly and indirectly invests in science and technology enterprises in the form of investment-loan linkage, or holds warrants, which can help enterprises grow in a long period of time and achieve high returns when equity withdraws.</p><p><b>Today, SVB is the only professional bank in the venture capital circle in the United States. So far, it has helped more than 30,000 start-ups to raise funds, connected with 600 venture capital institutions and 120 private equity institutions around the world, and occupied the start-up credit market. With a share of more than 50%, it is a well-deserved leading enterprise.</b></p><p><b>Just on February 14 this year, SVB also appeared on Forbes magazine's \"Top 100 Banks in the United States in 2023\" list, ranking 5th in California and 20th in the United States with its excellent profitability.</b></p><p>That's why this time the black swan seemed so unprepared: a 40-year-old store with outstanding performance and customer assets of up to 212 billion US dollars (as of the end of 2022) will really fall in 2023 because of the announcement of an unrealized loss of a mere 1.8 billion US dollars? Whether this is a public relations oolong or a liquidity crisis that is about to shake the United States will not be revealed until later.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"live_wallstreetcn","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Silicon Valley Bank, which hit the thunderstorm this time, is actually a top student</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSilicon Valley Bank, which hit the thunderstorm this time, is actually a top student\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2023-03-10 18:22</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><b>Just on February 14 this year, Silicon Valley Bank also appeared on Forbes magazine's \"Top 100 Banks in the United States in 2023\" list, ranking 5th in California and 20th in the United States with its excellent profitability.</b>The plunge of the U.S. banking industry overnight became a black swan event that shook the entire market. At the center of the vortex is a large commercial bank with a history of nearly 40 years-Silicon Valley Bank (hereinafter referred to as SVB). After the release of a financing announcement that didn't seem to be a big problem, the stock price of SVB Financial Group, the parent company of SVB, crashed by 60%, and fell by more than 40% before the market today.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c5da7ade76be1b07f1d0ba111d6571d9\" tg-width=\"818\" tg-height=\"506\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>The market value plummeted by nearly 10 billion dollars, many investors and depositors fled, and the company's credit rating was downgraded by Moody's... The largest bank in Silicon Valley was tottering overnight. Technology media The Information even commented that the best way to calm things down now is for a larger bank to acquire SVB.</p><p>SVB's official website states the bank's vision: to help individuals, investors and the world's most innovative companies realize their ambitions.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4dc31e54a57bad47d23a24ce6c93fd7c\" tg-width=\"634\" tg-height=\"140\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>From \"financial partner of innovative economies\" to encountering an all-round run, how did SVB get to this point? Combined with the research report released by Guohai Securities analyst Jin Yi in 2020, Wall Street Insights conducted a detailed review of the development history of SVB.</p><p><b>Started with poker</b></p><p>In the 1960s and 1970s, due to its proximity to famous institutions of higher learning such as Stanford University and the University of California, Berkeley, and local preferential policies such as tax incentives and government loan guarantees, Silicon Valley gradually became a hot spot for knowledge and adventurers, and technology companies blossomed here.</p><p>Emerging tech companies need capital to get started. But,<b>Among the corporate assets of these start-ups, intangible assets such as intellectual property rights account for the majority, so it is difficult for enterprises to obtain enough loans from commercial banks by mortgaging fixed assets. There is an urgent need for a professional commercial bank that can understand the development logic of technology companies to help start-ups grow and fill the gaps in the market.</b></p><p>Roger Smith and Bill Biggerstaff from Wells Fargo, as well as Stanford professor Robert Medearis, captured the opportunity astutely. The trio co-founded SVB in 1982.</p><p>In the initial stage, the three founders knew that they had to learn from and rely on the rich customer resources and industry experience of existing venture capital firms in Silicon Valley.<b>And the way they expand their contacts is also very interesting-actively participating in poker games of all sizes in Silicon Valley. In the end, everyone in these poker groups has invested at least $10,000 in SVB.</b></p><p>In the end, relying on the founder's network resources and hard lobbying, SVB attracted many famous entrepreneurs and activists in Silicon Valley to invest in shares, attracting an investment of US $5 million.</p><p>This part of the shareholder group also provided SVB's earliest business resources, allowing SVB to accumulate valuable first-mover advantages in the field of risk lending.</p><p><b>Unique business model</b></p><p>During the development of the 1990s, SVB's business framework was gradually determined.</p><p>Although SVB is no different from traditional commercial banks in terms of business scope, it is involved in deposits, loans, international settlement and other businesses.<b>But what's special is that it mainly serves emerging tech companies in computers, life sciences, clean energy and more, as well as private equity/venture capital funds. In addition, SVB will also bridge the gap between investment institutions and start-ups.</b></p><p><b>Partnership with venture capital is SVB's core business model.</b>Therefore, its business follows the venture capital. In Silicon Valley in the 1980s and 1990s, SVB executives were there where venture capitalists were meeting.</p><p>SVB generally adopts a co-investment model for start-up credit, that is, after the enterprise obtains venture capital equity investment, it approves the credit line according to a certain proportion. Credit may require third-party guarantees such as venture capital, or intellectual property mortgages.</p><p>Finally, SVB obtains income by charging higher interest than general corporate loans, and may also obtain a certain percentage of corporate warrants in order to increase income in the future. In addition, SVB also provides credit support to venture capital companies, providing bridge loan support when the latter's projects require capital investment but liquidity is in short supply.</p><p>Due to risk control considerations, most banks dare not set foot in the start-up credit market. However, SVB has established a set of loan approval processes specifically for technology start-ups from three aspects: pre-loan, during-loan, and after-loan.</p><p><ul><li><b>First of all, before lending, SVB adopts a follow-up investment strategy.</b>Only after obtaining investment from venture capital funds can enterprises obtain a certain percentage of SVB loans, usually about 1/4 of the venture capital investment amount. With the expertise of venture capital funds, SVB has screened out promising start-ups. If a company is favored by multiple venture capitalists at the same time, the probability of successfully applying for an SVB loan will be greatly increased. In addition, in order to further improve the ability to identify technology companies, SVB has also specially trained a group of researchers with professional knowledge backgrounds to participate in credit approval.</li><li><b>In loans, SVB requires different loan conditions according to the characteristics of different start-ups.</b>For start-ups that have no income yet, the company requires enterprises to use intellectual patents as qualitative rather than quantitative mortgages, so that even if enterprises default, they can make up for certain losses by selling patents to large enterprises.</li><li><b>After the loan, SVB requires enterprises to open capital accounts in the bank.</b>By monitoring the daily capital inflow and outflow of enterprises, banks can grasp the operating conditions of enterprises from the side, and timely give liquidity early warning and early disposal to enterprises that lack funds to repay loans. In addition, SVB will also communicate closely with the company's investment institutions to indirectly understand the company's development status.</li></ul><b>Towards full-cycle operation</b></p><p>With its prudent business strategy and excellent business model, SVB's performance has been moving forward steadily.<b>Even in the face of a black swan event such as the bursting of the Internet bubble in the millennium, the strict loan approval process allowed SVB to remain profitable throughout the bursting of the bubble, and the non-performing loan ratio even dropped to a certain extent.</b></p><p>However, in the bear market of that year, due to the reduction of business opportunities, the scale of SVB bank loans still suffered a certain degree of shrinkage. Therefore, through the policy window of mixed operations in the banking industry, SVB began to get involved in venture capital, investment banking, private banking, asset management and other services.</p><p>Moreover, as the scale grows, SVB finally has the ability to meet the financing needs of large enterprises. SVB has formulated three service plans according to the start-up stage, growth stage, and maturity stage of the enterprise, namely \"SVB Accelerator\", \"SVB Growth\", and \"SVB Corporate Finance\", covering the entire life cycle of the enterprise.</p><p><ul><li>\"SVB Accelerator\" provides the following services for high-tech enterprises in the start-up stage: First, it sends dedicated service representatives to work with start-ups to understand and feed back the unique banking needs of enterprises; The second is to provide enterprises with financial products and services such as competitive entrepreneurial term loans and \"combination of investment and loan\"; The third is to build an online commercial banking service platform to help entrepreneurs expand their networks and find potential investors for entrepreneurs.</li><li>\"SVB Growth\" includes the following financial products and services: First, provide flexible loan solutions, including mezzanine financing, medium-term guaranteed financing, and provide loan receivable lines; The second is to build a global fund management platform to provide international business services for enterprises, provide offshore accounts, carry out foreign exchange exchange and payment, and simplify the transaction process; The third is to customize investment plans for customers; The fourth is to provide asset management and securities services.</li><li>\"SVB Corporate Finance\" services include: long-term loans, trade finance, various types of loans receivable and working capital credit, asset management and securities, financial advisory services, global cash management, foreign exchange exchange, etc. and group services.</li></ul><b>Will the building collapse or an oolong incident?</b></p><p>To sum up, it is not difficult to find that the business model built by SVB is excellent:</p><p>In terms of interest income, SVB relies on the \"high interest spread\" strategy.</p><p><ul><li>On the liability side, by absorbing deposits from venture capital companies and technology companies at the same time, banks can achieve the purpose of retaining funds within banks to the maximum extent even if they are transferred between investors and invested companies. At the same time, the loan conditions additionally require corporate deposits to be interest-free, which greatly reduces the cost of the liability side.</li><li>On the asset side, by providing credit to technology start-ups that are relatively insensitive to interest rates, the yield on credit assets has been raised, and \"high interest spreads\" have ultimately been achieved.</li></ul>In terms of non-interest income, SVB has established a \"mixed operation\" strategy. In addition to participating in venture capital funds and establishing an information customer network to facilitate business analysis and consulting, it also directly and indirectly invests in science and technology enterprises in the form of investment-loan linkage, or holds warrants, which can help enterprises grow in a long period of time and achieve high returns when equity withdraws.</p><p><b>Today, SVB is the only professional bank in the venture capital circle in the United States. So far, it has helped more than 30,000 start-ups to raise funds, connected with 600 venture capital institutions and 120 private equity institutions around the world, and occupied the start-up credit market. With a share of more than 50%, it is a well-deserved leading enterprise.</b></p><p><b>Just on February 14 this year, SVB also appeared on Forbes magazine's \"Top 100 Banks in the United States in 2023\" list, ranking 5th in California and 20th in the United States with its excellent profitability.</b></p><p>That's why this time the black swan seemed so unprepared: a 40-year-old store with outstanding performance and customer assets of up to 212 billion US dollars (as of the end of 2022) will really fall in 2023 because of the announcement of an unrealized loss of a mere 1.8 billion US dollars? Whether this is a public relations oolong or a liquidity crisis that is about to shake the United States will not be revealed until later.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3683767\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a4ac7a6ebd455cb354600f2c4dcef71e","relate_stocks":{"IAT":"安硕美国地区银行ETF"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3683767","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/cc96873d3d23ee6ac10685520df9c100","article_id":"1115404762","content_text":"就在今年2月14日，硅谷银行还登上了《福布斯》杂志“2023美国百大银行”榜单，凭借出色的盈利能力名列加州第5位、美国第20位。隔夜美国银行业的暴跌，成了震动整个市场的黑天鹅事件。处于漩涡中心的，是一家有近40年历史的大型商业银行——硅谷银行（Silicon Valley Bank，下文简称SVB）。一纸看似问题不大的融资公告发布后，SVB母公司SVB Financial Group股价闪崩60%，今日盘前又重挫超40%。市值暴跌近百亿美元、众多投资者和储户纷纷出逃、公司信用评级也遭穆迪下调……硅谷第一大银行一夜之间风雨飘摇。科技媒体The Information甚至评论称，现在能让事情平息的最好办法，就是某家更大的银行出手收购SVB。SVB的官网上写着这家银行的愿景：帮助个人、投资者和世界最具创新性的公司们实现其雄心。从“创新经济体的金融伙伴”到遭遇全方位挤兑，SVB是怎么走到这一步的？结合国海证券分析师靳毅在2020年发布的研究报告，华尔街见闻对SVB的发展史进行了详尽梳理。靠扑克牌局起家上世纪六七十年代，由于临近斯坦福大学、加州大学伯克利分校等著名高等学府，叠加当地的税收优惠、政府贷款担保等优惠政策，硅谷逐渐成为了知识与冒险家的热土，科技公司在这里开花结果。新兴的科技公司需要资本起步。但是，在这些初创企业的公司资产中，知识产权等无形资产占大头，因此企业很难靠抵押固定资产从商业银行中获得足够的贷款。市场上亟需一家能理解科技公司发展逻辑的专业性商业银行，来帮助创业企业成长，填补市场的空白。来自富国银行的Roger Smith和Bill Biggerstaff，以及斯坦福大学教授Robert Medearis敏锐地捕捉到了这一机会。1982年，三人联合创立了SVB。在草创阶段，三位创始人深知必须学习和依靠硅谷现有的风投公司丰富的客户资源与行业经验。而他们拓展人脉的方式也很有趣——积极参与硅谷大大小小的扑克牌局，最后，这些扑克牌团体内的每一个人都至少给SVB投资了一万美元。最终，凭借创始人人脉资源和卖力游说，SVB招揽了众多硅谷著名的企业家和活动人士投资入股，吸引了500万美元的投资。这一部分股东群体，也提供了SVB最早的业务资源，让SVB在风险借贷领域积攒了宝贵的先发优势。独特的业务模式在90年代的发展过程中，SVB的业务框架逐渐确定。虽然在经营范围上，SVB 与传统商业银行无异，涉足存款、贷款、国际结算等业务，但特别之处在于，它主要为计算机、生命科学、清洁能源等领域的新兴科技公司以及私募股权/风险投资基金提供服务。此外，SVB还会为投资机构与初创企业牵线搭桥。与风投的合作是SVB的核心商业模式。因此，它的业务是跟着风投走的。在八九十年代的硅谷，哪里的风投在开会，SVB的高管就在哪里。SVB对初创企业信贷一般采取跟投的模式， 即在企业获得风险资本股权投资以后，按照一定比例批准信贷额度。信贷可能需要风险资本等第三方担保，或者知识产权抵押等。最后，SVB通过收取高于一般企业贷款的利息获取收益， 同时可能获取一定比例的企业认股权证，以求在未来增厚收益。另外，SVB还对风险资本公司提供信贷支持，在后者的项目需要资金投入但是流动性短缺的时候，提供过桥贷款支持。出于风控考虑，大多数银行不敢涉足初创企业信贷市场。但SVB专门从贷前、贷中、贷后三个方面下手，建立起一套专门针对科技初创企业的贷款审批流程。首先，在贷前，SVB采取跟投的策略。企业只有在获得风投基金投资后，才可能获得一定比例的SVB贷款，通常是风投投资金额的1/4左右。借助风投基金的专业知识，SVB已经筛选出了有发展前景的初创企业。如果一家企业同时获得多家风投青睐，那么申请成功SVB贷款的概率将大大升高。此外，为了进一步提高对科技企业的辨别能力，SVB还专门培养了一批具有专业知识背景的研究员参与信贷审批。在贷中，SVB根据不同的初创企业特点要求不同的贷款条件。对于还没有收 入的初创企业，公司要求企业用知识专利做定性而非定量的抵押，这样即使企业 违约，通过出售专利给大企业也能弥补一定损失。在贷后，SVB则要求企业将资金账户开在本行内。通过对企业日常资金进出情况进行监控，银行可以从侧面掌握企业的经营状况，并及时对缺乏资金还贷的企业进行流动性预警和提前处置。此外，SVB还会和该企业的投资机构密切沟通，间接了解企业发展现状。迈向全周期经营凭借审慎的经营策略和出色的业务模式，SVB的业绩一路稳健向前。即使遭遇千禧年互联网泡沫破灭这样的黑天鹅事件，严密的贷款审批流程也让SVB在整个泡沫破灭期间依然保持盈利，贷款不良率甚至还有一定的下降。但在当年的熊市下，由于业务机会的减少，SVB银行贷款规模还是遭遇了一定幅度的缩水。于是，借着银行业混业经营的政策窗口，SVB开始涉足风险投资、投资银行、私人银行、资产管理等服务。并且，随着规模增长，SVB也终于有能力满足大型企业的融资需求。SVB按照企业初创期、成长期、成熟期，对应制定了三种服务方案，分别是“SVB 加速器”、“SVB 增长”、“SVB 企业金融”，覆盖企业的整个生命周期。“SVB 加速器”为初创期高科技企业提供以下服务：一是派遣专门的服务代表 与初创者在一起工作，理解并反馈企业独特的银行需求；二是为企业提供有竞争 力创业定期贷款、“投贷结合”等的金融产品和服务；三是构建一个在线的商业 银行服务平台，帮助企业家扩展网络，为创业者找到潜在投资者。“SVB 增长”包括以下金融产品和服务：一是提供灵活的贷款方案，包括夹层融资、中期担保融资、提供应收贷款额度等；二是构建全球资金管理平台为企业提供国际业务服务，提供离岸的账户、开展外汇交换和支付，简化交易过程；三是为客户定制投资方案；四是提供资产管理和证券服务。“SVB 企业金融”服务包括：长期贷款、贸易融资、各类应收贷款和流动资金信贷、资产管理和证券、金融咨询服务、全球现金管理、外汇交换等和集团服务。大厦将倾还是乌龙事件？综上所述，不难发现，SVB搭建的业务模式十分出色：在利息收入上，SVB倚仗的是“高息差”策略。负债端，银行通过同时吸收风投企业与科技企业的存款，达到了即使资金在投资者与被投资企业间转移，也可以最大限度留存在银行内部的目的。同时贷款条件附加要求企业存款无息，大大压低了负债端成本。资产端，通过对利率相对不敏感的科技初创企业投放信贷，拉高了信贷资产收益率，最终实现“高息差”。在非息收入上，SVB搭建起了“混业经营”策略。除了通过参股风投基金，建立信息客户网络，方便开展企业分析咨询等业务外，还以投贷联动的方式直投、间接投资科技企业，或者持有认股权证，在较长的时间周期内帮助企业成长的同时，实现了股权退出时的高额回报。时至今日，SVB都是美国唯一一家创投圈内的专业性银行，至今已经帮助超3万家初创企业进行融资，对接全球600家风险投资机构，120家私募股权机构，在初创企业信贷市场占有率超过50%，是当之无愧的龙头企业。就在今年2月14日，SVB还登上了《福布斯》杂志“2023美国百大银行”榜单，凭借出色的盈利能力名列加州第5位、美国第20位。所以这一次的黑天鹅才显得如此猝不及防：一家业绩出色、客户资产高达2120亿美元（截至2022年底）的四十年老店，真的会因为公告了区区18亿美元的未实现亏损，倒在2023年吗？这到底是一场公关乌龙，还是即将震动美国的流动性危机，要等之后才会揭晓。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"IAT":1,"SIVB":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":689,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9949121411,"gmtCreate":1678445641333,"gmtModify":1678445646329,"author":{"id":"3576374040053118","authorId":"3576374040053118","name":"逐步涨","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b860305d59f5f83146cc00f33e44b75","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576374040053118","idStr":"3576374040053118"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[财迷]&nbsp;","listText":"[财迷]&nbsp;","text":"[财迷]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9949121411","repostId":"1168280839","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1168280839","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"提供即時金融資訊、行情、數據，旨在幫助投資者理解世界，做投資決策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎資訊","id":"1059071526","head_image":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1678444145,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1168280839?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-03-10 18:29","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"North-South Water Direction | Beishui buys Li Auto at the bottom of HK $400 million, with a net income of HK $1.33 billion today","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1168280839","media":"老虎資訊","summary":"北水今日淨入13.30億元港幣，理想汽車、小鵬汽車、美團分別獲淨買入4.01億港幣、3.45億港幣、3.25億港幣。南水今日凈走52.96億元人民幣。比亞迪、寧德時代、招商銀行分別遭凈走9.74億元人","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Beishui's net income today was HK $1.330 billion, and Li Auto, Xpeng Motors, and Meituan received net purchases of HK $401 million, HK $345 million, and HK $325 million respectively.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/346a2b32a0c47773268e17402d545482\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"1825\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Nanshui net RMB 5.296 billion today. BYD, CATL and China Merchants Bank suffered net losses of RMB974 million, RMB606 million and RMB284 million respectively; China Unicom ranked first in terms of net income, with an amount of RMB391 million.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a1070be68534503e3c33b615282ec186\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"1825\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>North-South Water Direction | Beishui buys Li Auto at the bottom of HK $400 million, with a net income of HK $1.33 billion today</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNorth-South Water Direction | Beishui buys Li Auto at the bottom of HK $400 million, with a net income of HK $1.33 billion today\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1059071526\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎資訊 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2023-03-10 18:29</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Beishui's net income today was HK $1.330 billion, and Li Auto, Xpeng Motors, and Meituan received net purchases of HK $401 million, HK $345 million, and HK $325 million respectively.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/346a2b32a0c47773268e17402d545482\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"1825\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Nanshui net RMB 5.296 billion today. BYD, CATL and China Merchants Bank suffered net losses of RMB974 million, RMB606 million and RMB284 million respectively; China Unicom ranked first in terms of net income, with an amount of RMB391 million.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a1070be68534503e3c33b615282ec186\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"1825\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2869684faa12daf41c77713de7a0becf","relate_stocks":{"03690":"美团-W","XPEV":"小鹏汽车","09868":"小鹏汽车-W","02015":"理想汽车-W","LI":"理想汽车"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1168280839","content_text":"北水今日淨入13.30億元港幣，理想汽車、小鵬汽車、美團分別獲淨買入4.01億港幣、3.45億港幣、3.25億港幣。南水今日凈走52.96億元人民幣。比亞迪、寧德時代、招商銀行分別遭凈走9.74億元人民幣、6.06億元人民幣、2.84億元人民幣；中國聯通凈入額居首，金額為3.91億元人民幣。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"LI":0.9,"03690":0.9,"XPEV":0.9,"09868":0.9,"02015":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":524,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9940488707,"gmtCreate":1678111798309,"gmtModify":1678111803164,"author":{"id":"3576374040053118","authorId":"3576374040053118","name":"逐步涨","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b860305d59f5f83146cc00f33e44b75","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576374040053118","idStr":"3576374040053118"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[财迷]&nbsp;","listText":"[财迷]&nbsp;","text":"[财迷]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9940488707","repostId":"1181851551","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":622,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9940488470,"gmtCreate":1678111781990,"gmtModify":1678111785925,"author":{"id":"3576374040053118","authorId":"3576374040053118","name":"逐步涨","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b860305d59f5f83146cc00f33e44b75","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576374040053118","idStr":"3576374040053118"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[财迷]&nbsp;","listText":"[财迷]&nbsp;","text":"[财迷]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9940488470","repostId":"2317124522","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2317124522","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1678108809,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2317124522?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-03-06 21:20","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"The era of \"blind buying of US stocks\" has come to an end, and Wall Street is looking for better investment products","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2317124522","media":"第一财经 ","summary":"过去十多年，华尔街一直信奉的“TINA”(There Is No Alternative）理念——即除了股票别无其他投资选择——正在成为过去式，“盲买”美股的时代已然落幕。自2008年全球金融危机以来","content":"<p><div>Over the past decade or so, Wall Street's \"There Is No Alternative\" philosophy of \"There Is No Alternative\" is becoming a thing of the past, and the era of \"blind buying\" U.S. stocks has come to an end. Since the global financial crisis of 2008, when central banks have implemented a quantitative easing to escape the economic downturn, Treasury Bond yields have fallen to the bottom, and Treasury Bond yields in Japanese and most European countries have entered negative territory. However, the situation turned around last year. In 2022,...</p><p><a href=\"https://www.yicai.com/news/101693830.html\">Web link</a></div></p>","source":"dyvj","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The era of \"blind buying of US stocks\" has come to an end, and Wall Street is looking for better investment products</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe era of \"blind buying of US stocks\" has come to an end, and Wall Street is looking for better investment products\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">第一财经 </strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2023-03-06 21:20</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><div>Over the past decade or so, Wall Street's \"There Is No Alternative\" philosophy of \"There Is No Alternative\" is becoming a thing of the past, and the era of \"blind buying\" U.S. stocks has come to an end. Since the global financial crisis of 2008, when central banks have implemented a quantitative easing to escape the economic downturn, Treasury Bond yields have fallen to the bottom, and Treasury Bond yields in Japanese and most European countries have entered negative territory. However, the situation turned around last year. In 2022,...</p><p><a href=\"https://www.yicai.com/news/101693830.html\">Web link</a></div></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://www.yicai.com/news/101693830.html\">第一财经 </a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/845db2f5c021b0317a272807b57f963e","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.yicai.com/news/101693830.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2317124522","content_text":"过去十多年，华尔街一直信奉的“TINA”(There Is No Alternative）理念——即除了股票别无其他投资选择——正在成为过去式，“盲买”美股的时代已然落幕。自2008年全球金融危机以来，各国央行为摆脱经济低迷推行量化宽松，国债收益率跌至谷底，日本和欧洲大部分国家的国债收益率进入负值区域，其间，以美股为代表的股票成为资金寻求丰厚回报的绝佳标的。不过，形势于去年发生扭转。2022年，各国央行以50年未见的同步程度相继加息，随之而来的是全球股市巨震，国债收益率飙升至十多年高位。“盲买”美股时代结束渣打中国财富管理部首席投资策略师王昕杰在接受采访时表示：“通胀高企迫使全球主要央行采取强硬态度提高资金成本，‘TINA’策略所依赖的低利率环境就此结束。此前，该策略盛行的背后逻辑在于，央行为刺激经济增长而创造出宽松条件，名义和实际利率接近零水平甚至为负值，投资者在固收资产中无法获得期望回报，只能转投股票，即便股票估值越来越高，投资者也别无选择。”美股表现是“TINA”策略的最好证明。据统计，2009～2021年这13年间，按全年表现计，标普500指数仅在2015年和2018年出现小幅下跌，跌幅分别为0.7%和6.2%，2011年该股指平收，其他年份则是全线上扬，其中，除2016年之外，其余年份全部实现两位数涨幅，且不乏势头较猛的年份，例如2009年标普500指数大涨23.5%，2013年美股劲升29.6%，2019年和2021年涨幅分别为28.9%和26.9%。中航信托宏观策略总监吴照银表示：“2009～2021年期间，美股确实一路呈现上行态势。权益资产价格连续上涨，一方面归功于长时间的低利率，令股票等风险资产估值不断拔高；另一方面，美国经济景气、企业盈利强劲也是重要驱动力。货币政策和经济基本面两者都给投资者提供了良好预期。”不过，上述两项因素均在去年发生逆转。“美国连续加息之下，美债收益率连创新高，短期债券收益率升幅更大，市场无风险收益率保持颇高水平，这对风险资产价格形成持续压制。同时，美债收益率倒挂明显指向美国经济和企业盈利预期下降，这种情况下，股票自然不涨反跌，如果美国利率不能趋势性下行，并且较长时间维持在低利率状态，美国权益资产收益难以向好。”吴照银说。2日，十年期美债收益率突破4%，创去年11月以来的新高，两年期美债收益率触及4.9%，刷新2007年以来的高位，6个月期美国国债的收益率已从去年年初时的接近零水平攀升至当前的5.129%，不少券商正在提供收益率超过4%的货币市场基金。相形之下，据股票市场研究机构Birinyi Associates的数据，标普500指数成份股的平均股息收益率仅为1.71%。如此一来，华尔街大行纷纷放弃“TINA”策略，高盛转向“TARA”（There Are Reasonable Alternatives），相信市场上存在合理的股票替代品，德意志银行提出“TAPAs”（There Are Plenty of Alternatives）一词，意为还有很多股票替代品。那么，2023年应该采取何种策略？今年以来，美国经济数据强于预期，令市场猜测衰退可能延迟到来，不过王昕杰认为，一年内出现大幅衰退的可能性更大。“就业市场持续紧张，通胀上升可能会鼓励美联储和欧洲央行推动更高的长期利率。在此背景下，我们认为今年以稳健投资策略来构建基础配置将是审慎之举，即保护收益率，配置提供长期价值的亚洲资产，巩固投资以应对更多意外，以及透过另类策略在传统资产之外进行扩张。”寻找更优投资品种美国银行2月进行的一项调查显示，基金经理在股票上的配置比长期平均水平低出约2.2个标准差，与此同时，债券、新兴市场、现金及大宗商品在投资组合中的比例开始高于往常。王昕杰表示，债券将成2023年的最佳投资标的之一，偏好投资级债券。“相对股票和现金，我们超配债券，包括政府债和优质公司债。随着美联储和欧洲央行的终端利率预期跃升至约5.5%和4%，债券似乎再现收益机会，美国投资级公司债的收益率已超过5%，亚洲美元债的收益率接近6.5%。”他进一步表示，尽管当前的高收益率提供了更直接的获利机会，但投资者仍应配置那些能够提供长期价值的资产来加以平衡。“一旦美联储货币政策转向，美元将由升转贬，最终应该会支持包括亚洲股市在内的新兴市场资产。”未来6～12个月，渣打继续看好亚洲（除日本）股票价值，其中超配中国股票。“中国经济数据持续改善，疫后需求复苏推动宏观数据反弹，全国两会带来更多稳增长的政策信号，我们建议投资者同时关注离岸和在岸中国股票。”王昕杰说。吴照银认为，市场风险偏好整体趋于下降，投资者的资产配置逐渐转向避险资产。“短线来看，在当前利率仍在上升的情况下，投资者倾向于选择类货币资产；至今年底和明年，随着利率开始下行，债券会成为投资者青睐的品种。”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":554,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9940488570,"gmtCreate":1678111772391,"gmtModify":1678111775853,"author":{"id":"3576374040053118","authorId":"3576374040053118","name":"逐步涨","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b860305d59f5f83146cc00f33e44b75","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576374040053118","idStr":"3576374040053118"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[财迷]&nbsp;","listText":"[财迷]&nbsp;","text":"[财迷]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9940488570","repostId":"2317124522","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2317124522","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1678108809,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2317124522?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-03-06 21:20","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"The era of \"blind buying of US stocks\" has come to an end, and Wall Street is looking for better investment products","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2317124522","media":"第一财经 ","summary":"过去十多年，华尔街一直信奉的“TINA”(There Is No Alternative）理念——即除了股票别无其他投资选择——正在成为过去式，“盲买”美股的时代已然落幕。自2008年全球金融危机以来","content":"<p><div>Over the past decade or so, Wall Street's \"There Is No Alternative\" philosophy of \"There Is No Alternative\" is becoming a thing of the past, and the era of \"blind buying\" U.S. stocks has come to an end. Since the global financial crisis of 2008, when central banks have implemented a quantitative easing to escape the economic downturn, Treasury Bond yields have fallen to the bottom, and Treasury Bond yields in Japanese and most European countries have entered negative territory. However, the situation turned around last year. In 2022,...</p><p><a href=\"https://www.yicai.com/news/101693830.html\">Web link</a></div></p>","source":"dyvj","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The era of \"blind buying of US stocks\" has come to an end, and Wall Street is looking for better investment products</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe era of \"blind buying of US stocks\" has come to an end, and Wall Street is looking for better investment products\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">第一财经 </strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2023-03-06 21:20</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><div>Over the past decade or so, Wall Street's \"There Is No Alternative\" philosophy of \"There Is No Alternative\" is becoming a thing of the past, and the era of \"blind buying\" U.S. stocks has come to an end. Since the global financial crisis of 2008, when central banks have implemented a quantitative easing to escape the economic downturn, Treasury Bond yields have fallen to the bottom, and Treasury Bond yields in Japanese and most European countries have entered negative territory. However, the situation turned around last year. In 2022,...</p><p><a href=\"https://www.yicai.com/news/101693830.html\">Web link</a></div></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://www.yicai.com/news/101693830.html\">第一财经 </a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/845db2f5c021b0317a272807b57f963e","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.yicai.com/news/101693830.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2317124522","content_text":"过去十多年，华尔街一直信奉的“TINA”(There Is No Alternative）理念——即除了股票别无其他投资选择——正在成为过去式，“盲买”美股的时代已然落幕。自2008年全球金融危机以来，各国央行为摆脱经济低迷推行量化宽松，国债收益率跌至谷底，日本和欧洲大部分国家的国债收益率进入负值区域，其间，以美股为代表的股票成为资金寻求丰厚回报的绝佳标的。不过，形势于去年发生扭转。2022年，各国央行以50年未见的同步程度相继加息，随之而来的是全球股市巨震，国债收益率飙升至十多年高位。“盲买”美股时代结束渣打中国财富管理部首席投资策略师王昕杰在接受采访时表示：“通胀高企迫使全球主要央行采取强硬态度提高资金成本，‘TINA’策略所依赖的低利率环境就此结束。此前，该策略盛行的背后逻辑在于，央行为刺激经济增长而创造出宽松条件，名义和实际利率接近零水平甚至为负值，投资者在固收资产中无法获得期望回报，只能转投股票，即便股票估值越来越高，投资者也别无选择。”美股表现是“TINA”策略的最好证明。据统计，2009～2021年这13年间，按全年表现计，标普500指数仅在2015年和2018年出现小幅下跌，跌幅分别为0.7%和6.2%，2011年该股指平收，其他年份则是全线上扬，其中，除2016年之外，其余年份全部实现两位数涨幅，且不乏势头较猛的年份，例如2009年标普500指数大涨23.5%，2013年美股劲升29.6%，2019年和2021年涨幅分别为28.9%和26.9%。中航信托宏观策略总监吴照银表示：“2009～2021年期间，美股确实一路呈现上行态势。权益资产价格连续上涨，一方面归功于长时间的低利率，令股票等风险资产估值不断拔高；另一方面，美国经济景气、企业盈利强劲也是重要驱动力。货币政策和经济基本面两者都给投资者提供了良好预期。”不过，上述两项因素均在去年发生逆转。“美国连续加息之下，美债收益率连创新高，短期债券收益率升幅更大，市场无风险收益率保持颇高水平，这对风险资产价格形成持续压制。同时，美债收益率倒挂明显指向美国经济和企业盈利预期下降，这种情况下，股票自然不涨反跌，如果美国利率不能趋势性下行，并且较长时间维持在低利率状态，美国权益资产收益难以向好。”吴照银说。2日，十年期美债收益率突破4%，创去年11月以来的新高，两年期美债收益率触及4.9%，刷新2007年以来的高位，6个月期美国国债的收益率已从去年年初时的接近零水平攀升至当前的5.129%，不少券商正在提供收益率超过4%的货币市场基金。相形之下，据股票市场研究机构Birinyi Associates的数据，标普500指数成份股的平均股息收益率仅为1.71%。如此一来，华尔街大行纷纷放弃“TINA”策略，高盛转向“TARA”（There Are Reasonable Alternatives），相信市场上存在合理的股票替代品，德意志银行提出“TAPAs”（There Are Plenty of Alternatives）一词，意为还有很多股票替代品。那么，2023年应该采取何种策略？今年以来，美国经济数据强于预期，令市场猜测衰退可能延迟到来，不过王昕杰认为，一年内出现大幅衰退的可能性更大。“就业市场持续紧张，通胀上升可能会鼓励美联储和欧洲央行推动更高的长期利率。在此背景下，我们认为今年以稳健投资策略来构建基础配置将是审慎之举，即保护收益率，配置提供长期价值的亚洲资产，巩固投资以应对更多意外，以及透过另类策略在传统资产之外进行扩张。”寻找更优投资品种美国银行2月进行的一项调查显示，基金经理在股票上的配置比长期平均水平低出约2.2个标准差，与此同时，债券、新兴市场、现金及大宗商品在投资组合中的比例开始高于往常。王昕杰表示，债券将成2023年的最佳投资标的之一，偏好投资级债券。“相对股票和现金，我们超配债券，包括政府债和优质公司债。随着美联储和欧洲央行的终端利率预期跃升至约5.5%和4%，债券似乎再现收益机会，美国投资级公司债的收益率已超过5%，亚洲美元债的收益率接近6.5%。”他进一步表示，尽管当前的高收益率提供了更直接的获利机会，但投资者仍应配置那些能够提供长期价值的资产来加以平衡。“一旦美联储货币政策转向，美元将由升转贬，最终应该会支持包括亚洲股市在内的新兴市场资产。”未来6～12个月，渣打继续看好亚洲（除日本）股票价值，其中超配中国股票。“中国经济数据持续改善，疫后需求复苏推动宏观数据反弹，全国两会带来更多稳增长的政策信号，我们建议投资者同时关注离岸和在岸中国股票。”王昕杰说。吴照银认为，市场风险偏好整体趋于下降，投资者的资产配置逐渐转向避险资产。“短线来看，在当前利率仍在上升的情况下，投资者倾向于选择类货币资产；至今年底和明年，随着利率开始下行，债券会成为投资者青睐的品种。”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":861,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9940488269,"gmtCreate":1678111753151,"gmtModify":1678111756573,"author":{"id":"3576374040053118","authorId":"3576374040053118","name":"逐步涨","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b860305d59f5f83146cc00f33e44b75","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576374040053118","idStr":"3576374040053118"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[财迷]&nbsp;","listText":"[财迷]&nbsp;","text":"[财迷]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9940488269","repostId":"2317178905","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2317178905","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1678110241,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2317178905?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-03-06 21:44","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Morgan Stanley is idling more again: U.S. stocks will rebound in the near future","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2317178905","media":"智通财经","summary":"摩根士丹利首席策略师威尔逊(Michael Wilson)表示，在业绩不利因素加剧之前，美股可能还有上涨空间。威尔逊周一表示，“股市上周经受住了关键的支撑考验，这表明本轮熊市反弹还没有准备好结束。”威","content":"<p><html><head></head><body><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a>Chief strategist Michael Wilson said U.S. stocks may still have room to rise before performance headwinds intensify. \"Stocks withstood a critical test of support last week, suggesting this bear market rally isn't ready to end,\" Wilson said Monday, correctly predicting the stock market sell-off and last October's rally. He noted that the S&P 500 is holding above its 200-day moving average and could rise further if the dollar and interest rates continue to pull back after last Friday's decline.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1072f3a311cda661a6aac98d8766c954\" tg-width=\"576\" tg-height=\"328\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>While Wilson sees the next resistance for the S&P 500 at 4,150, about 2.5% above last Friday's close, he sees it as a short-term turning point. As fundamentals continue to deteriorate, particularly when it comes to earnings, the market is set to fall further in the medium term, he wrote.</p><p>Despite the surge, Mr Wilson said, \"we don't think that counters the extremely low risk-reward of many stocks right now, given that valuations and earnings estimates are still too high.\" He expects margins to be \"significantly worse than current consensus expectations.\"</p><p>Wilson noted that the gap between earnings and cash flow was the largest in 25 years because of excess inventory and capital costs that haven't been reflected.</p><p>The S&P 500 is up 5.4% so far this year, and the tech benchmark Nasdaq 100 has surged more than 12%, despite hawkish rhetoric from Fed officials amid economic recovery and still strong inflation and employment data.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/US10Y.BOND\">US 10-Year Treasury Bond Yield</a>Soaring to nearly 4.2% last week, it pulled back last Friday, spurring stocks higher.</p><p>Wilson's cautious approach gained<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a>Approved by the strategist team, JPMorgan's strategists headed by Mislav Matejka believe that investors are now \"more willing to chase the market\" and suggest using the current strength to reduce risk exposure, because tightening monetary policy will have a lagging impact on the stock market.</p><p>Matejka is also particularly pessimistic about U.S. stocks, saying on Monday that relative valuations and earnings of U.S. stocks are near all-time highs, and they may \"continue to undermine the strong momentum of the past decade.\"</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"stock_zhitongcaijing","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Morgan Stanley is idling more again: U.S. stocks will rebound in the near future</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMorgan Stanley is idling more again: U.S. stocks will rebound in the near future\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">智通财经</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2023-03-06 21:44</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a>Chief strategist Michael Wilson said U.S. stocks may still have room to rise before performance headwinds intensify. \"Stocks withstood a critical test of support last week, suggesting this bear market rally isn't ready to end,\" Wilson said Monday, correctly predicting the stock market sell-off and last October's rally. He noted that the S&P 500 is holding above its 200-day moving average and could rise further if the dollar and interest rates continue to pull back after last Friday's decline.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1072f3a311cda661a6aac98d8766c954\" tg-width=\"576\" tg-height=\"328\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>While Wilson sees the next resistance for the S&P 500 at 4,150, about 2.5% above last Friday's close, he sees it as a short-term turning point. As fundamentals continue to deteriorate, particularly when it comes to earnings, the market is set to fall further in the medium term, he wrote.</p><p>Despite the surge, Mr Wilson said, \"we don't think that counters the extremely low risk-reward of many stocks right now, given that valuations and earnings estimates are still too high.\" He expects margins to be \"significantly worse than current consensus expectations.\"</p><p>Wilson noted that the gap between earnings and cash flow was the largest in 25 years because of excess inventory and capital costs that haven't been reflected.</p><p>The S&P 500 is up 5.4% so far this year, and the tech benchmark Nasdaq 100 has surged more than 12%, despite hawkish rhetoric from Fed officials amid economic recovery and still strong inflation and employment data.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/US10Y.BOND\">US 10-Year Treasury Bond Yield</a>Soaring to nearly 4.2% last week, it pulled back last Friday, spurring stocks higher.</p><p>Wilson's cautious approach gained<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a>Approved by the strategist team, JPMorgan's strategists headed by Mislav Matejka believe that investors are now \"more willing to chase the market\" and suggest using the current strength to reduce risk exposure, because tightening monetary policy will have a lagging impact on the stock market.</p><p>Matejka is also particularly pessimistic about U.S. stocks, saying on Monday that relative valuations and earnings of U.S. stocks are near all-time highs, and they may \"continue to undermine the strong momentum of the past decade.\"</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/887537.html\">智通财经</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/55eb327f580527889cf30bafa92692ae","relate_stocks":{"BK4504":"桥水持仓",".DJI":"道琼斯","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","LU0971096721.USD":"富达环球金融服务 A","LU0320765646.SGD":"FTIF - Franklin Income A MDIS SGD-H1","BK4127":"投资银行业与经纪业","LU0106831901.USD":"贝莱德世界金融基金A2","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","LU1668664300.SGD":"Blackrock World Financials A2 SGD-H","MS":"摩根士丹利","LU1162221912.USD":"FRANKLIN INCOME \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4588":"碎股","LU1074936037.SGD":"JPMorgan Funds - US Value A (acc) SGD","IE00BKVL7J92.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - US Equity Sustainability Leaders A Acc USD","LU0098860793.USD":"FRANKLIN INCOME \"A\" INC","IE00BZ1G4Q59.USD":"LEGG MASON CLEARBRIDGE US EQUITY SUSTAINABILITY LEADER \"A\"(USD) INC (A)","LU1363072403.SGD":"Fidelity Global Financial Services A-ACC-SGD","LU1989772840.SGD":"CPR Invest - Climate Action A2 Acc SGD-H","BK4581":"高盛持仓","LU1989772923.USD":"CPR Invest - Climate Action A2 Acc USD-H"},"source_url":"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/887537.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2317178905","content_text":"摩根士丹利首席策略师威尔逊(Michael Wilson)表示，在业绩不利因素加剧之前，美股可能还有上涨空间。威尔逊周一表示，“股市上周经受住了关键的支撑考验，这表明本轮熊市反弹还没有准备好结束。”威尔逊正确地预测了股市的抛售和去年10月份的反弹。他指出，标准普尔500指数保持在200日移动均线上方，如果美元和利率在上周五下跌后继续回落，可能会进一步上涨。虽然威尔逊认为标准普尔500指数的下一个阻力位在4150点，比上周五的收盘价高出约2.5%，但他认为这是一个短期转折点。他写道，随着基本面继续恶化，特别是在盈利方面，市场中期还会进一步下跌。威尔逊称，尽管股市大涨，但\"我们认为，鉴于估值和获利预估仍过高，我们认为这无法反驳许多股票目前极低的风险回报。\"他预计利润率将\"大大逊于目前的普遍预期\"。威尔逊指出，财报收益和现金流之间的差距是25年来最大的，原因是库存过剩和资本成本尚未反映出来。标准普尔500指数今年以来累计上涨5.4%，科技股基准纳斯达克100指数飙升逾12%，尽管美联储官员在经济复苏、通胀和就业数据依然强劲的情况下发表了强硬言论。美国10年期国债收益率上周飙升至近4.2%，上周五回落，刺激股市走高。威尔逊的谨慎态度获得了摩根大通策略师团队的认可，小摩以Mislav Matejka为首的策略师认为，投资者现在“更愿意追逐市场”，建议利用目前的强势来削减风险敞口，因为货币政策收紧将对股市产生滞后影响。Matejka也特别不看好美国股市，他在周一表示，美国股市的相对估值和收益接近历史高点，而它们可能“继续削弱过去10年的强劲势头”。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,"MS":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":547,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9940488636,"gmtCreate":1678111740925,"gmtModify":1678111744674,"author":{"id":"3576374040053118","authorId":"3576374040053118","name":"逐步涨","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b860305d59f5f83146cc00f33e44b75","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576374040053118","idStr":"3576374040053118"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[财迷]&nbsp;","listText":"[财迷]&nbsp;","text":"[财迷]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9940488636","repostId":"2317178905","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2317178905","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1678110241,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2317178905?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-03-06 21:44","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Morgan Stanley is idling more again: U.S. stocks will rebound in the near future","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2317178905","media":"智通财经","summary":"摩根士丹利首席策略师威尔逊(Michael Wilson)表示，在业绩不利因素加剧之前，美股可能还有上涨空间。威尔逊周一表示，“股市上周经受住了关键的支撑考验，这表明本轮熊市反弹还没有准备好结束。”威","content":"<p><html><head></head><body><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a>Chief strategist Michael Wilson said U.S. stocks may still have room to rise before performance headwinds intensify. \"Stocks withstood a critical test of support last week, suggesting this bear market rally isn't ready to end,\" Wilson said Monday, correctly predicting the stock market sell-off and last October's rally. He noted that the S&P 500 is holding above its 200-day moving average and could rise further if the dollar and interest rates continue to pull back after last Friday's decline.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1072f3a311cda661a6aac98d8766c954\" tg-width=\"576\" tg-height=\"328\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>While Wilson sees the next resistance for the S&P 500 at 4,150, about 2.5% above last Friday's close, he sees it as a short-term turning point. As fundamentals continue to deteriorate, particularly when it comes to earnings, the market is set to fall further in the medium term, he wrote.</p><p>Despite the surge, Mr Wilson said, \"we don't think that counters the extremely low risk-reward of many stocks right now, given that valuations and earnings estimates are still too high.\" He expects margins to be \"significantly worse than current consensus expectations.\"</p><p>Wilson noted that the gap between earnings and cash flow was the largest in 25 years because of excess inventory and capital costs that haven't been reflected.</p><p>The S&P 500 is up 5.4% so far this year, and the tech benchmark Nasdaq 100 has surged more than 12%, despite hawkish rhetoric from Fed officials amid economic recovery and still strong inflation and employment data.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/US10Y.BOND\">US 10-Year Treasury Bond Yield</a>Soaring to nearly 4.2% last week, it pulled back last Friday, spurring stocks higher.</p><p>Wilson's cautious approach gained<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a>Approved by the strategist team, JPMorgan's strategists headed by Mislav Matejka believe that investors are now \"more willing to chase the market\" and suggest using the current strength to reduce risk exposure, because tightening monetary policy will have a lagging impact on the stock market.</p><p>Matejka is also particularly pessimistic about U.S. stocks, saying on Monday that relative valuations and earnings of U.S. stocks are near all-time highs, and they may \"continue to undermine the strong momentum of the past decade.\"</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"stock_zhitongcaijing","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Morgan Stanley is idling more again: U.S. stocks will rebound in the near future</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMorgan Stanley is idling more again: U.S. stocks will rebound in the near future\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">智通财经</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2023-03-06 21:44</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a>Chief strategist Michael Wilson said U.S. stocks may still have room to rise before performance headwinds intensify. \"Stocks withstood a critical test of support last week, suggesting this bear market rally isn't ready to end,\" Wilson said Monday, correctly predicting the stock market sell-off and last October's rally. He noted that the S&P 500 is holding above its 200-day moving average and could rise further if the dollar and interest rates continue to pull back after last Friday's decline.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1072f3a311cda661a6aac98d8766c954\" tg-width=\"576\" tg-height=\"328\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>While Wilson sees the next resistance for the S&P 500 at 4,150, about 2.5% above last Friday's close, he sees it as a short-term turning point. As fundamentals continue to deteriorate, particularly when it comes to earnings, the market is set to fall further in the medium term, he wrote.</p><p>Despite the surge, Mr Wilson said, \"we don't think that counters the extremely low risk-reward of many stocks right now, given that valuations and earnings estimates are still too high.\" He expects margins to be \"significantly worse than current consensus expectations.\"</p><p>Wilson noted that the gap between earnings and cash flow was the largest in 25 years because of excess inventory and capital costs that haven't been reflected.</p><p>The S&P 500 is up 5.4% so far this year, and the tech benchmark Nasdaq 100 has surged more than 12%, despite hawkish rhetoric from Fed officials amid economic recovery and still strong inflation and employment data.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/US10Y.BOND\">US 10-Year Treasury Bond Yield</a>Soaring to nearly 4.2% last week, it pulled back last Friday, spurring stocks higher.</p><p>Wilson's cautious approach gained<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a>Approved by the strategist team, JPMorgan's strategists headed by Mislav Matejka believe that investors are now \"more willing to chase the market\" and suggest using the current strength to reduce risk exposure, because tightening monetary policy will have a lagging impact on the stock market.</p><p>Matejka is also particularly pessimistic about U.S. stocks, saying on Monday that relative valuations and earnings of U.S. stocks are near all-time highs, and they may \"continue to undermine the strong momentum of the past decade.\"</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/887537.html\">智通财经</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/55eb327f580527889cf30bafa92692ae","relate_stocks":{"BK4504":"桥水持仓",".DJI":"道琼斯","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","LU0971096721.USD":"富达环球金融服务 A","LU0320765646.SGD":"FTIF - Franklin Income A MDIS SGD-H1","BK4127":"投资银行业与经纪业","LU0106831901.USD":"贝莱德世界金融基金A2","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","LU1668664300.SGD":"Blackrock World Financials A2 SGD-H","MS":"摩根士丹利","LU1162221912.USD":"FRANKLIN INCOME \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4588":"碎股","LU1074936037.SGD":"JPMorgan Funds - US Value A (acc) SGD","IE00BKVL7J92.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - US Equity Sustainability Leaders A Acc USD","LU0098860793.USD":"FRANKLIN INCOME \"A\" INC","IE00BZ1G4Q59.USD":"LEGG MASON CLEARBRIDGE US EQUITY SUSTAINABILITY LEADER \"A\"(USD) INC (A)","LU1363072403.SGD":"Fidelity Global Financial Services A-ACC-SGD","LU1989772840.SGD":"CPR Invest - Climate Action A2 Acc SGD-H","BK4581":"高盛持仓","LU1989772923.USD":"CPR Invest - Climate Action A2 Acc USD-H"},"source_url":"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/887537.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2317178905","content_text":"摩根士丹利首席策略师威尔逊(Michael Wilson)表示，在业绩不利因素加剧之前，美股可能还有上涨空间。威尔逊周一表示，“股市上周经受住了关键的支撑考验，这表明本轮熊市反弹还没有准备好结束。”威尔逊正确地预测了股市的抛售和去年10月份的反弹。他指出，标准普尔500指数保持在200日移动均线上方，如果美元和利率在上周五下跌后继续回落，可能会进一步上涨。虽然威尔逊认为标准普尔500指数的下一个阻力位在4150点，比上周五的收盘价高出约2.5%，但他认为这是一个短期转折点。他写道，随着基本面继续恶化，特别是在盈利方面，市场中期还会进一步下跌。威尔逊称，尽管股市大涨，但\"我们认为，鉴于估值和获利预估仍过高，我们认为这无法反驳许多股票目前极低的风险回报。\"他预计利润率将\"大大逊于目前的普遍预期\"。威尔逊指出，财报收益和现金流之间的差距是25年来最大的，原因是库存过剩和资本成本尚未反映出来。标准普尔500指数今年以来累计上涨5.4%，科技股基准纳斯达克100指数飙升逾12%，尽管美联储官员在经济复苏、通胀和就业数据依然强劲的情况下发表了强硬言论。美国10年期国债收益率上周飙升至近4.2%，上周五回落，刺激股市走高。威尔逊的谨慎态度获得了摩根大通策略师团队的认可，小摩以Mislav Matejka为首的策略师认为，投资者现在“更愿意追逐市场”，建议利用目前的强势来削减风险敞口，因为货币政策收紧将对股市产生滞后影响。Matejka也特别不看好美国股市，他在周一表示，美国股市的相对估值和收益接近历史高点，而它们可能“继续削弱过去10年的强劲势头”。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,"MS":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":529,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9940488851,"gmtCreate":1678111727474,"gmtModify":1678111730680,"author":{"id":"3576374040053118","authorId":"3576374040053118","name":"逐步涨","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b860305d59f5f83146cc00f33e44b75","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576374040053118","idStr":"3576374040053118"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[财迷]&nbsp;","listText":"[财迷]&nbsp;","text":"[财迷]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9940488851","repostId":"2317737511","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2317737511","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1678111209,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2317737511?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-03-06 22:00","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Goldman Sachs Recommends Buy Apple Stock for First Time in Nearly 6 Years with $199 Price Target","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2317737511","media":"环球市场播报","summary":"据报道，投资银行高盛今日将苹果公司股票评为“买入”评级，这也是近六年来的首次。高盛分析师迈克尔·NG（Michael Ng）称，苹果公司庞大的用户群，将有助于苹果进一步推动其“服务业务”的增长。市场调","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>According to reports, investment banks<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>Today will<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>The company's stock has a \"buy\" rating, which is also the first time in nearly six years.</p><p>Goldman Sachs analyst Michael Ng (Michael Ng) said that Apple's huge user base will help Apple further promote the growth of its \"service business\".</p><p>Market research agency Finbold recently released a report saying that the revenue of Apple's service business will reach US $79.4 billion in 2022, exceeding the revenue of many Fortune 500 companies, including Boeing,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INTC\">Intel</a>And<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NKE\">Nike</a>Etc.</p><p>Michael said: \"Apple's success in high-end hardware design, and the resulting brand loyalty, have led to an increasing number of Apple users. This helps Apple reduce the number of users leaving its ecosystem, reduce user acquisition costs, and encourage users to repeat purchases.\"</p><p>Before Michael, Rod Hall was an analyst at Goldman Sachs who tracked Apple stock. Hall has tracked Apple stock for nearly five years, and Michael is now taking over.</p><p>Previously, Hall had always given Apple stock a \"neutral\" or \"sell\" rating. The last time Goldman Sachs gave Apple stock a \"buy\" rating was in 2017, and since then, Apple's stock price has risen by more than 300%.</p><p>In addition to giving Apple stock a \"buy\" rating, Michael also set Apple's price target at $199, a 32% premium to last Friday's closing price. This compares to the average Wall Street analyst estimate of $168.82.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"highlight_sina","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Goldman Sachs Recommends Buy Apple Stock for First Time in Nearly 6 Years with $199 Price Target</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nGoldman Sachs Recommends Buy Apple Stock for First Time in Nearly 6 Years with $199 Price Target\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">环球市场播报</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2023-03-06 22:00</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>According to reports, investment banks<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>Today will<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>The company's stock has a \"buy\" rating, which is also the first time in nearly six years.</p><p>Goldman Sachs analyst Michael Ng (Michael Ng) said that Apple's huge user base will help Apple further promote the growth of its \"service business\".</p><p>Market research agency Finbold recently released a report saying that the revenue of Apple's service business will reach US $79.4 billion in 2022, exceeding the revenue of many Fortune 500 companies, including Boeing,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INTC\">Intel</a>And<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NKE\">Nike</a>Etc.</p><p>Michael said: \"Apple's success in high-end hardware design, and the resulting brand loyalty, have led to an increasing number of Apple users. This helps Apple reduce the number of users leaving its ecosystem, reduce user acquisition costs, and encourage users to repeat purchases.\"</p><p>Before Michael, Rod Hall was an analyst at Goldman Sachs who tracked Apple stock. Hall has tracked Apple stock for nearly five years, and Michael is now taking over.</p><p>Previously, Hall had always given Apple stock a \"neutral\" or \"sell\" rating. The last time Goldman Sachs gave Apple stock a \"buy\" rating was in 2017, and since then, Apple's stock price has risen by more than 300%.</p><p>In addition to giving Apple stock a \"buy\" rating, Michael also set Apple's price target at $199, a 32% premium to last Friday's closing price. This compares to the average Wall Street analyst estimate of $168.82.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2023-03-06/doc-imyixytr8909539.shtml\">环球市场播报</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c79d9ba94a347164a5cd3ec1bac06488","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2023-03-06/doc-imyixytr8909539.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/b0d1b7e8843deea78cc308b15114de44","article_id":"2317737511","content_text":"据报道，投资银行高盛今日将苹果公司股票评为“买入”评级，这也是近六年来的首次。高盛分析师迈克尔·NG（Michael Ng）称，苹果公司庞大的用户群，将有助于苹果进一步推动其“服务业务”的增长。市场调查机构Finbold近期发布报告称，苹果服务业务的营收在2022年达到了 794亿美元，超过了多家财富500强公司的营收，包括波音公司、英特尔和耐克等。迈克尔称：“苹果在高端硬件设计方面的成功，以及由此带来的品牌忠诚度，导致苹果的用户数量与日俱增。这有助于苹果减少离开其生态系统的用户数量，降低用户获取成本，并鼓励用户重复购买。”在迈克尔之前，罗德·豪尔（Rod Hall）是高盛公司负责追踪苹果股票的分析师。豪尔追踪苹果股票近五年时间，如今由迈克尔接管。之前，豪尔一直给予苹果股票“中性”或“卖出”评级。高盛上一次给予苹果股票“买入”评级还是2017年，随后至今，苹果股价已上涨逾300%。除了给予苹果股票“买入”评级，迈克尔还将苹果的目标股价定为199美元，较上周五收盘价溢价32%。相比之下，华尔街分析师的平均预期是168.82美元。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":990,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9957431526,"gmtCreate":1677474396766,"gmtModify":1677474400285,"author":{"id":"3576374040053118","authorId":"3576374040053118","name":"逐步涨","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b860305d59f5f83146cc00f33e44b75","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576374040053118","idStr":"3576374040053118"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[财迷]&nbsp;","listText":"[财迷]&nbsp;","text":"[财迷]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9957431526","repostId":"624675357","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":624675357,"gmtCreate":1677471420000,"gmtModify":1677473690129,"author":{"id":"4107925732032840","authorId":"4107925732032840","name":"中国基金报","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/498a5e5426489a3835f596f93ba03b51","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4107925732032840","idStr":"4107925732032840"},"themes":[],"title":"甲流來了，怎麼防護？","htmlText":"來源：央視網綜合科技日報、澎湃新聞近日，甲流進入高發期，北京、上海、浙江、天津等地均有學校因學生患甲流而停課。甲流指甲型流感，是由甲型流感病毒引起的急性呼吸道傳染病，常發生在冬春季。那麼，面對來勢洶洶的甲流，我們能從症狀上區分甲流與新冠嗎？甲流新冠會疊加嗎？我們應該如何預防甲流呢？甲流典型症狀爲發熱首都醫科大學附屬北京天壇醫院感染科主任王寶增介紹，　流感病毒可分爲甲、乙、丙、丁4大家族，其中甲型流感較爲常見，每年會呈季節性流行。中國國家流感中心發佈的2023年第7週中國流感監測週報顯示，近期甲型流感的來勢最爲兇猛。　　“甲流的潛伏期通常在1～3天，最主要的症狀是發熱、全身肌肉痠痛與頭痛，也會有一些較輕的呼吸道症狀，例如咳嗽、流涕、咽痛等。”王寶增表示，甲流與新冠在上呼吸道方面的症狀相似。&nbsp;“但是，甲流的典型症狀是發燒與全身肌肉痠痛，而感染了新冠病毒的輕症與無症狀患者一般不會出現這些情況。”“此外，新冠還可能會帶來味覺、嗅覺的異常，部分新冠病毒患者會出現嘔吐、腹瀉與結膜炎的症狀，這些症狀在甲流感染中相對少見。”“特別是對味覺和嗅覺的影響，是新冠病毒的特點。”&nbsp;“從臨牀來看，非重症的新冠患者發生肺炎的情況比甲流多一些，對於老年人、有基礎疾病的高危人羣而言，感染甲流後出現肺部疾病等重症的案例比新冠少。”與新冠疊加的概率較低對於甲流與新冠的疊加，王寶增表示這種情況機率很小，即使出現，非高危人羣出現危重症的情況也並不多見。&nbsp;“目前我國大部分人羣都對新冠有了免疫力，同時感染新冠與流感的概率很低，即使出現兩種病毒同時感染的情況，也不一定就會成爲危重症。是否成爲危重症與個人的體質有關，對於非高危人羣，即使同時感染兩種病毒，自身較強的抵抗力也會降低發生危重症的風險。”“但建議未感染過新冠病毒的羣體，還是繼續做好防護。”　　王寶增告表示，感染甲流後所產生的抗體有效","listText":"來源：央視網綜合科技日報、澎湃新聞近日，甲流進入高發期，北京、上海、浙江、天津等地均有學校因學生患甲流而停課。甲流指甲型流感，是由甲型流感病毒引起的急性呼吸道傳染病，常發生在冬春季。那麼，面對來勢洶洶的甲流，我們能從症狀上區分甲流與新冠嗎？甲流新冠會疊加嗎？我們應該如何預防甲流呢？甲流典型症狀爲發熱首都醫科大學附屬北京天壇醫院感染科主任王寶增介紹，　流感病毒可分爲甲、乙、丙、丁4大家族，其中甲型流感較爲常見，每年會呈季節性流行。中國國家流感中心發佈的2023年第7週中國流感監測週報顯示，近期甲型流感的來勢最爲兇猛。　　“甲流的潛伏期通常在1～3天，最主要的症狀是發熱、全身肌肉痠痛與頭痛，也會有一些較輕的呼吸道症狀，例如咳嗽、流涕、咽痛等。”王寶增表示，甲流與新冠在上呼吸道方面的症狀相似。&nbsp;“但是，甲流的典型症狀是發燒與全身肌肉痠痛，而感染了新冠病毒的輕症與無症狀患者一般不會出現這些情況。”“此外，新冠還可能會帶來味覺、嗅覺的異常，部分新冠病毒患者會出現嘔吐、腹瀉與結膜炎的症狀，這些症狀在甲流感染中相對少見。”“特別是對味覺和嗅覺的影響，是新冠病毒的特點。”&nbsp;“從臨牀來看，非重症的新冠患者發生肺炎的情況比甲流多一些，對於老年人、有基礎疾病的高危人羣而言，感染甲流後出現肺部疾病等重症的案例比新冠少。”與新冠疊加的概率較低對於甲流與新冠的疊加，王寶增表示這種情況機率很小，即使出現，非高危人羣出現危重症的情況也並不多見。&nbsp;“目前我國大部分人羣都對新冠有了免疫力，同時感染新冠與流感的概率很低，即使出現兩種病毒同時感染的情況，也不一定就會成爲危重症。是否成爲危重症與個人的體質有關，對於非高危人羣，即使同時感染兩種病毒，自身較強的抵抗力也會降低發生危重症的風險。”“但建議未感染過新冠病毒的羣體，還是繼續做好防護。”　　王寶增告表示，感染甲流後所產生的抗體有效","text":"來源：央視網綜合科技日報、澎湃新聞近日，甲流進入高發期，北京、上海、浙江、天津等地均有學校因學生患甲流而停課。甲流指甲型流感，是由甲型流感病毒引起的急性呼吸道傳染病，常發生在冬春季。那麼，面對來勢洶洶的甲流，我們能從症狀上區分甲流與新冠嗎？甲流新冠會疊加嗎？我們應該如何預防甲流呢？甲流典型症狀爲發熱首都醫科大學附屬北京天壇醫院感染科主任王寶增介紹，　流感病毒可分爲甲、乙、丙、丁4大家族，其中甲型流感較爲常見，每年會呈季節性流行。中國國家流感中心發佈的2023年第7週中國流感監測週報顯示，近期甲型流感的來勢最爲兇猛。　　“甲流的潛伏期通常在1～3天，最主要的症狀是發熱、全身肌肉痠痛與頭痛，也會有一些較輕的呼吸道症狀，例如咳嗽、流涕、咽痛等。”王寶增表示，甲流與新冠在上呼吸道方面的症狀相似。 “但是，甲流的典型症狀是發燒與全身肌肉痠痛，而感染了新冠病毒的輕症與無症狀患者一般不會出現這些情況。”“此外，新冠還可能會帶來味覺、嗅覺的異常，部分新冠病毒患者會出現嘔吐、腹瀉與結膜炎的症狀，這些症狀在甲流感染中相對少見。”“特別是對味覺和嗅覺的影響，是新冠病毒的特點。” “從臨牀來看，非重症的新冠患者發生肺炎的情況比甲流多一些，對於老年人、有基礎疾病的高危人羣而言，感染甲流後出現肺部疾病等重症的案例比新冠少。”與新冠疊加的概率較低對於甲流與新冠的疊加，王寶增表示這種情況機率很小，即使出現，非高危人羣出現危重症的情況也並不多見。 “目前我國大部分人羣都對新冠有了免疫力，同時感染新冠與流感的概率很低，即使出現兩種病毒同時感染的情況，也不一定就會成爲危重症。是否成爲危重症與個人的體質有關，對於非高危人羣，即使同時感染兩種病毒，自身較強的抵抗力也會降低發生危重症的風險。”“但建議未感染過新冠病毒的羣體，還是繼續做好防護。”　　王寶增告表示，感染甲流後所產生的抗體有效","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e966a539c59d4b138ca66a345b5c537e","width":"0","height":"0"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1db92ceb2d484ca89101a2f431deaf65","width":"0","height":"0"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/04b56627ec8f43e98d32f1ae9aeee078","width":"0","height":"0"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/624675357","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":5,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":667,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":9966708432,"gmtCreate":1669634099426,"gmtModify":1676538216367,"author":{"id":"3576374040053118","authorId":"3576374040053118","name":"逐步涨","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b860305d59f5f83146cc00f33e44b75","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576374040053118","idStr":"3576374040053118"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/ASLN\">$Aslan Pharmaceuticals Ltd.(ASLN)$&nbsp;</a>😂","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/ASLN\">$Aslan Pharmaceuticals Ltd.(ASLN)$&nbsp;</a>😂","text":"$Aslan Pharmaceuticals Ltd.(ASLN)$ 😂","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9966708432","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":947,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":251302738223176,"gmtCreate":1702390420015,"gmtModify":1702390425170,"author":{"id":"3576374040053118","authorId":"3576374040053118","name":"逐步涨","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b860305d59f5f83146cc00f33e44b75","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576374040053118","idStr":"3576374040053118"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"was flagged out for unusual option activity. More specifically the 5.5 call which expires in 44 days (Jan 19 24) has a high Volume to Open Interest ratio. I cross checked the short interest ratio of the stock and indeed it is elevated:","listText":"was flagged out for unusual option activity. More specifically the 5.5 call which expires in 44 days (Jan 19 24) has a high Volume to Open Interest ratio. I cross checked the short interest ratio of the stock and indeed it is elevated:","text":"was flagged out for unusual option activity. More specifically the 5.5 call which expires in 44 days (Jan 19 24) has a high Volume to Open Interest ratio. I cross checked the short interest ratio of the stock and indeed it is elevated:","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/251302738223176","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2074,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9949549139,"gmtCreate":1678781570122,"gmtModify":1678781573506,"author":{"id":"3576374040053118","authorId":"3576374040053118","name":"逐步涨","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b860305d59f5f83146cc00f33e44b75","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576374040053118","idStr":"3576374040053118"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[财迷]&nbsp;","listText":"[财迷]&nbsp;","text":"[财迷]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9949549139","repostId":"1185557919","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1714,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9949549939,"gmtCreate":1678781558621,"gmtModify":1678781562716,"author":{"id":"3576374040053118","authorId":"3576374040053118","name":"逐步涨","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b860305d59f5f83146cc00f33e44b75","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576374040053118","idStr":"3576374040053118"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[财迷]&nbsp;","listText":"[财迷]&nbsp;","text":"[财迷]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9949549939","repostId":"1138776941","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2435,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9949549070,"gmtCreate":1678781547891,"gmtModify":1678781551657,"author":{"id":"3576374040053118","authorId":"3576374040053118","name":"逐步涨","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b860305d59f5f83146cc00f33e44b75","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576374040053118","idStr":"3576374040053118"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[财迷]&nbsp;","listText":"[财迷]&nbsp;","text":"[财迷]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9949549070","repostId":"1187347737","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1187347737","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"熱點資訊，一圖睇明","home_visible":1,"media_name":"熱點飛虎隊","id":"1056299239","head_image":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/3f76872017dba2be8d1a3322bdc0d2bc"},"pubTimestamp":1678789265,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1187347737?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-03-14 18:21","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"A picture to see it clearly | The United States comes to the rescue! The pre-market stock prices of small and medium-sized banks soared! The end point of crisis is defined as the transition point?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1187347737","media":"熱點飛虎隊","summary":"美國硅谷银行（Silicon Valley Bank）上周突然宣布融資，其後多間創投基金要求投資對象從矽谷銀行提走存款，觸發擠堤。48小時內，矽谷銀行被美國聯邦存款保險公司（FDIC）接管存款，引發全","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>United States<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SIVB\">Silicon Valley Bank</a>(Silicon Valley Bank) suddenly announced financing last week, and then many venture capital funds asked investors to withdraw their deposits from Silicon Valley Bank, triggering a squeeze. Within 48 hours, the deposits of Silicon Valley Bank were taken over by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) of the United States, triggering shock in the global financial market; To enhance depositor confidence and avoid a larger financial crisis, the U.S. Treasury Department, the Federal Reserve and the FDIC have taken a series of actions;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SIVB\">Silicon Valley Bank</a>Storms swept through small and medium-sized banks, and U.S. bank stocks were flooded on Monday.<b>But everything was ready before the market opened on Tuesday,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FRC\">First Republic Bank</a>It rose 20% before the market,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PACW\">PacWest Bancorp</a>It rose 30% before the market;</b>A picture shows the important timeline of the explosion of banks in Silicon Valley:<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b12f2496aa6ad3f9354b92c9bd9b56e2\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"3402\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Silicon Valley Bank of the United States (also known as Silicon Valley Bank) suddenly announced last Wednesday that it was looking to raise US $2.25 billion, causing an originally well-capitalized institution, triggering market panic and ending its 40-year operation within 48 hours.</p><p>U.S. regulators on Friday ordered Silicon Valley banks to close their doors and take over deposits, the largest bank failure in the United States since the 2008 financial crisis.</p><p>The U.S. Department of the Treasury, the Federal Reserve and the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) issued a joint statement stating that the FDIC will 100% protect the deposits of Silicon Valley bank depositors, and all funds can be withdrawn starting from the 13th; At the same time, close Signature Bank, and all depositors can withdraw account funds just like Silicon Valley Bank; And providing additional funds to all eligible depository institutions to facilitate the withdrawal. Said that the taxpayer will not be liable for any loss.</p><p>The statement mentioned that U.S. taxpayers will not be liable for any losses arising from the resolution of issues related to Silicon Valley banks, and shareholders and certain unsecured debts will not be protected. In addition, the leadership of Silicon Valley banks will be completely replaced. According to the law, any losses incurred by the Deposit Insurance Fund in its operations will be covered through a special evaluation of the bank.</p><p>On the other hand, the Fed said that the additional funds for depository institutions, from the Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP) program, are $25 billion and will provide banks, savings unions, credit unions and other eligible depository institutions with loans for up to one year. BTFP funds will support additional sources of liquidity for high-quality securities such as U.S. Treasury bonds, institutional debt, and mortgage-backed securities, eliminating institutions being forced to sell these assets at low prices when they are under pressure.</p><p>Here are the highlights of BTFP:</p><p>● 1-year loan</p><p>BTFP provides loans to banks, savings unions, credit unions, and other eligible depository institutions for up to one year. These institutions are required to use U.S. Treasury bonds, mortgage-backed securities, etc. as collateral. ● $25 billion in funding</p><p>The Federal Reserve will allocate up to $25 billion in funds through BTFP to provide loans to depository institutions for up to one year, allowing them to have extra funds to meet the needs of all depositors and avoid crowding. The Fed didn't expect it to be necessary to use these funds, and if the institution failed to repay the loan, all collateral could be forfeited. ● Fixed borrowing costs</p><p>The interest rate is the one-year overnight index swap rate (OIS) plus 10 basis points, and the prepayment term will be determined on the date of prepayment. ● Relieve stress</p><p>BTFP funding will support additional sources of liquidity for high-quality securities, including U.S. Treasury debt, institutional debt, and mortgage-backed securities, eliminating the need for institutions to be forced to sell these assets at low prices when under pressure. ● Valuation at par value</p><p>Acceptable loan collateral, including U.S. Treasury bonds and mortgage-backed securities, will be valued at face value. This means that the value of open-market bonds lost by the Fed's one-year rate hike will not reduce the amount of bank borrowing. ● Avoid similar failure events</p><p>Reuters said on the 13th that economists at Jefferies Group in the United States said that the collateral involved in BTFP is valued at face value, which ensures that banks similar to the Silicon Valley silver market can easily use them to obtain liquidity without having to make significant losses. Economists believe that the Fed's momentum greatly reduces the risk of further contagion of the Silicon Valley banking crisis. The explosion of SVB, a bank in the Silicon Valley of the United States, triggered a crisis in the confidence of small and medium-sized banks in the United States. U.S. bank stocks were flooded on Monday:</p><p><ul><li><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FRC\">First Republic Bank</a>(US: FRC):-61.8%</li><li><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WAL\">Alliance Western Bank</a>(US: WAL):-47.1%</li><li><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CMA\">Comerica Bank</a>(US: CMA):-27.7%</li><li><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZION\">Zion Bank</a>(US: ZION):-25.7%</li><li><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PACW\">PacWest Bancorp</a>(US: PACW):-21.1%</li><li><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EWBC\">gorgeous</a>(US: EWBC):-17.4%</li></ul>However, everything was good before the market opened on Tuesday. As of 18:00, the pre-market performance was as follows</p><p><ul><li><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FRC\">First Republic Bank</a>(US: FRC): 21.18%</li><li><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WAL\">Alliance Western Bank</a>(US: WAL): 20.87%</li><li><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CMA\">Comerica Bank</a>(US: CMA): 10.46%</li><li><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZION\">Zion Bank</a>(US: ZION): 11.44%</li><li><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PACW\">PacWest Bancorp</a>(US: PACW): 30.77%</li><li><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EWBC\">gorgeous</a>(US: EWBC): 6.81%</li></ul></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>A picture to see it clearly | The United States comes to the rescue! The pre-market stock prices of small and medium-sized banks soared! The end point of crisis is defined as the transition point?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nA picture to see it clearly | The United States comes to the rescue! The pre-market stock prices of small and medium-sized banks soared! The end point of crisis is defined as the transition point?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1056299239\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/3f76872017dba2be8d1a3322bdc0d2bc);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">熱點飛虎隊 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2023-03-14 18:21</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>United States<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SIVB\">Silicon Valley Bank</a>(Silicon Valley Bank) suddenly announced financing last week, and then many venture capital funds asked investors to withdraw their deposits from Silicon Valley Bank, triggering a squeeze. Within 48 hours, the deposits of Silicon Valley Bank were taken over by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) of the United States, triggering shock in the global financial market; To enhance depositor confidence and avoid a larger financial crisis, the U.S. Treasury Department, the Federal Reserve and the FDIC have taken a series of actions;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SIVB\">Silicon Valley Bank</a>Storms swept through small and medium-sized banks, and U.S. bank stocks were flooded on Monday.<b>But everything was ready before the market opened on Tuesday,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FRC\">First Republic Bank</a>It rose 20% before the market,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PACW\">PacWest Bancorp</a>It rose 30% before the market;</b>A picture shows the important timeline of the explosion of banks in Silicon Valley:<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b12f2496aa6ad3f9354b92c9bd9b56e2\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"3402\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Silicon Valley Bank of the United States (also known as Silicon Valley Bank) suddenly announced last Wednesday that it was looking to raise US $2.25 billion, causing an originally well-capitalized institution, triggering market panic and ending its 40-year operation within 48 hours.</p><p>U.S. regulators on Friday ordered Silicon Valley banks to close their doors and take over deposits, the largest bank failure in the United States since the 2008 financial crisis.</p><p>The U.S. Department of the Treasury, the Federal Reserve and the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) issued a joint statement stating that the FDIC will 100% protect the deposits of Silicon Valley bank depositors, and all funds can be withdrawn starting from the 13th; At the same time, close Signature Bank, and all depositors can withdraw account funds just like Silicon Valley Bank; And providing additional funds to all eligible depository institutions to facilitate the withdrawal. Said that the taxpayer will not be liable for any loss.</p><p>The statement mentioned that U.S. taxpayers will not be liable for any losses arising from the resolution of issues related to Silicon Valley banks, and shareholders and certain unsecured debts will not be protected. In addition, the leadership of Silicon Valley banks will be completely replaced. According to the law, any losses incurred by the Deposit Insurance Fund in its operations will be covered through a special evaluation of the bank.</p><p>On the other hand, the Fed said that the additional funds for depository institutions, from the Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP) program, are $25 billion and will provide banks, savings unions, credit unions and other eligible depository institutions with loans for up to one year. BTFP funds will support additional sources of liquidity for high-quality securities such as U.S. Treasury bonds, institutional debt, and mortgage-backed securities, eliminating institutions being forced to sell these assets at low prices when they are under pressure.</p><p>Here are the highlights of BTFP:</p><p>● 1-year loan</p><p>BTFP provides loans to banks, savings unions, credit unions, and other eligible depository institutions for up to one year. These institutions are required to use U.S. Treasury bonds, mortgage-backed securities, etc. as collateral. ● $25 billion in funding</p><p>The Federal Reserve will allocate up to $25 billion in funds through BTFP to provide loans to depository institutions for up to one year, allowing them to have extra funds to meet the needs of all depositors and avoid crowding. The Fed didn't expect it to be necessary to use these funds, and if the institution failed to repay the loan, all collateral could be forfeited. ● Fixed borrowing costs</p><p>The interest rate is the one-year overnight index swap rate (OIS) plus 10 basis points, and the prepayment term will be determined on the date of prepayment. ● Relieve stress</p><p>BTFP funding will support additional sources of liquidity for high-quality securities, including U.S. Treasury debt, institutional debt, and mortgage-backed securities, eliminating the need for institutions to be forced to sell these assets at low prices when under pressure. ● Valuation at par value</p><p>Acceptable loan collateral, including U.S. Treasury bonds and mortgage-backed securities, will be valued at face value. This means that the value of open-market bonds lost by the Fed's one-year rate hike will not reduce the amount of bank borrowing. ● Avoid similar failure events</p><p>Reuters said on the 13th that economists at Jefferies Group in the United States said that the collateral involved in BTFP is valued at face value, which ensures that banks similar to the Silicon Valley silver market can easily use them to obtain liquidity without having to make significant losses. Economists believe that the Fed's momentum greatly reduces the risk of further contagion of the Silicon Valley banking crisis. The explosion of SVB, a bank in the Silicon Valley of the United States, triggered a crisis in the confidence of small and medium-sized banks in the United States. U.S. bank stocks were flooded on Monday:</p><p><ul><li><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FRC\">First Republic Bank</a>(US: FRC):-61.8%</li><li><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WAL\">Alliance Western Bank</a>(US: WAL):-47.1%</li><li><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CMA\">Comerica Bank</a>(US: CMA):-27.7%</li><li><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZION\">Zion Bank</a>(US: ZION):-25.7%</li><li><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PACW\">PacWest Bancorp</a>(US: PACW):-21.1%</li><li><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EWBC\">gorgeous</a>(US: EWBC):-17.4%</li></ul>However, everything was good before the market opened on Tuesday. As of 18:00, the pre-market performance was as follows</p><p><ul><li><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FRC\">First Republic Bank</a>(US: FRC): 21.18%</li><li><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WAL\">Alliance Western Bank</a>(US: WAL): 20.87%</li><li><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CMA\">Comerica Bank</a>(US: CMA): 10.46%</li><li><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZION\">Zion Bank</a>(US: ZION): 11.44%</li><li><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PACW\">PacWest Bancorp</a>(US: PACW): 30.77%</li><li><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EWBC\">gorgeous</a>(US: EWBC): 6.81%</li></ul></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9c40005220ef2d1587576093ee65cc54","relate_stocks":{"ZION":"齐昂银行","EWBC":"华美","PACW":"西太平洋合众银行","CMA":"联信银行","00005":"汇丰控股","WAL":"阿莱恩斯西部银行"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1187347737","content_text":"美國硅谷银行（Silicon Valley Bank）上周突然宣布融資，其後多間創投基金要求投資對象從矽谷銀行提走存款，觸發擠堤。48小時內，矽谷銀行被美國聯邦存款保險公司（FDIC）接管存款，引發全球金融市場震盪；為增強存戶信心，避免引致更大規模的金融危機，美國財政部、聯儲局及FDIC採取了一系列行動；硅谷银行風暴席捲中小型銀行，美國銀行股周一插水。不過周二盤前齊造好，第一共和银行 盤前升兩成，PacWest Bancorp盤前升三成；一圖睇明矽谷銀行爆煲重要時間綫：美國硅谷銀行（又稱矽谷銀行）上周三突然宣布尋求集資22.5億美元，令一家原本資本充足的機構，引爆了市場恐慌，並極速在48小時內，結束了長達40年的運作。美國監管機構在周五已勒令矽谷銀行關門，並接管了存款，是自2008年金融危機以來，美國最大的銀行倒閉事件。美國財政部、聯邦儲備局及聯邦存款保險公司（FDIC）發表聯合聲明表示，FDIC將100%保障矽谷銀行存戶存款，由13日開始可提取所有資金；同時關閉Signature Bank，所有存戶與矽谷銀行一樣，同樣可以提取賬戶資金；以及向所有合資格存款機構提供額外資金，以助應付擠提。稱納稅人不會承擔任何損失。聲明提到，美國納稅人將不會承擔任何因解決矽谷銀行相關問題而衍生的任何損失，股東及某些無擔保債務則不受保護。此外，矽谷銀行領導層將完全被撤換。根據法律規定，存款保險基金在行動中任何損失，將透過對銀行的特別評估來彌補。另一方面，聯儲局表示，為存款機構提供的額外資金，來自Bank Term Funding Program（BTFP）計劃，規模為250億美元，將為銀行、儲蓄社、信用合作社和其他符合條件的存款機構，提供長達一年的貸款。BTFP資金將支持美國國債、機構債務和抵押支持證券等高質量證券的額外流動性來源，消除機構受壓時，被迫以低價出售這些資產。以下是「BTFP」的重點內容：● 1年貸款BTFP會向銀行、儲蓄社、信用合作社、以及其他符合條件的存款機構，提供最長達一年的貸款。這些機構須以美國國債、抵押貸款支持證券等作為抵押品。● 250億美元資金美聯儲局會透過BTFP抽調出規模達250億美元資金，以向存款機構提供最長達一年的貸款，令它們有額外的資金來滿足所有儲戶的需求，避免擠提。美聯儲局預料沒必要動用這些資金，而如果機構無法償還貸款，所有抵押品都可被沒收。● 固定借貸成本利率為一年期隔夜指數掉期利率 （OIS）加10個基點，並將在預付款當日確定預付款期限。● 緩解壓力BTFP資金將支持包括美國國債、機構債務和抵押貸款支持證券在內的高質量證券的額外流動來源，消除機構在壓力時被迫以低價出售這些資產的需要。● 按面值估值可接受的貸款抵押品，包括美國國債和抵押貸款支持證券，將按面值估值。這意味着因美聯儲局加息1年而受損的公開市場債券價值不會降低銀行的借款金額。● 避免同類倒閉事件路透社13日稱，美國傑富瑞集團（Jefferies Group）經濟學家表示，BTFP涉及的抵押品按面值估值，這確保與矽谷銀行情況類似的銀行能輕鬆地利用它們來獲得流動性，不必出現重大損失。經濟學家認為，美聯儲局的行動能大大降低矽谷銀行危機進一步蔓延的風險。美國矽谷銀行SVB爆煲，引發美國中小型銀行信心危機，美國銀行股周一插水：第一共和银行 （美︰FRC）：-61.8%阿莱恩斯西部银行（美︰WAL）：-47.1%联信银行 （美：CMA）：-27.7%锡安银行（美：ZION）：-25.7%PacWest Bancorp（美：PACW）：-21.1%华美 （美：EWBC）：-17.4%不過周二盤前齊造好，截至18：00，盤前表現如下第一共和银行 （美︰FRC）：21.18%阿莱恩斯西部银行（美︰WAL）：20.87%联信银行 （美：CMA）：10.46%锡安银行（美：ZION）：11.44%PacWest Bancorp（美：PACW）：30.77%华美 （美：EWBC）：6.81%","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"WAL":0.9,"EWBC":0.9,"PACW":0.9,"SIVB":0.9,"ZION":0.9,"00005":0.9,"CMA":0.9,"FRC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2125,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9949540708,"gmtCreate":1678781536805,"gmtModify":1678781540219,"author":{"id":"3576374040053118","authorId":"3576374040053118","name":"逐步涨","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b860305d59f5f83146cc00f33e44b75","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576374040053118","idStr":"3576374040053118"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[财迷]&nbsp;","listText":"[财迷]&nbsp;","text":"[财迷]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9949540708","repostId":"1145513301","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2304,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9969464870,"gmtCreate":1668500531191,"gmtModify":1676538066565,"author":{"id":"3576374040053118","authorId":"3576374040053118","name":"逐步涨","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b860305d59f5f83146cc00f33e44b75","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576374040053118","idStr":"3576374040053118"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/AQUNR\">$AQUARON ACQUISITION CORP COM USD0.0001 (SUB/RIGHTS 15/07/2026)(AQUNR)$&nbsp;</a>","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/AQUNR\">$AQUARON ACQUISITION CORP COM USD0.0001 (SUB/RIGHTS 15/07/2026)(AQUNR)$&nbsp;</a>","text":"$AQUARON ACQUISITION CORP COM USD0.0001 (SUB/RIGHTS 15/07/2026)(AQUNR)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9969464870","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":701,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9949540419,"gmtCreate":1678781525931,"gmtModify":1678781530087,"author":{"id":"3576374040053118","authorId":"3576374040053118","name":"逐步涨","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b860305d59f5f83146cc00f33e44b75","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576374040053118","idStr":"3576374040053118"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[财迷]&nbsp;","listText":"[财迷]&nbsp;","text":"[财迷]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9949540419","repostId":"1110288097","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1110288097","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"追踪全球财经热点，精选影响您财富的资讯，投资理财必备神器！","home_visible":1,"media_name":"华尔街见闻","id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"pubTimestamp":1678780838,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1110288097?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-03-14 16:00","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Fed Reports' Significant Decline in Inflation Expectations', What Happens to CPI Tonight?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1110288097","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"经济学家预计美国整体CPI仍将处于高位。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Economists expect the overall U.S. CPI to remain high. But at a time when the Silicon Valley Bank bankruptcy crisis has roiled the outlook for monetary policy, some economists suspect the Fed won't even stick to rate hike at its next meeting. Americans' expectations for near-term inflation have fallen to nearly two-year lows. The Federal Reserve may repath its rate hike amid turmoil in the financial sector due to the Silicon Valley Bank crisis.</p><p>On Monday Eastern Time, a consumer survey released by the New York Fed showed that U.S. consumers' expectations for future inflation have dropped sharply.</p><p>Specifically, in February, the median inflation expectation for the coming year fell by 0.8 percentage points to 4.2%.<b>The lowest level since May 2021</b>, compared with 5% expected in January. Inflation expectations for the next three years remained unchanged at 2.7%, with long-term inflation expectations rising slightly: The median inflation expectation for the next five years rose by 0.1 percentage points month-on-month to 2.6%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/517481044bfb4335ec8256d3a1da062d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"531\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Consumers expect the price increase of many daily necessities and services to slow down significantly. Gasoline prices are expected to rise by 4.7% in the coming year, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month; Food price growth will continue to slow down, and it is expected to increase by 7.3%, down 1.7 percentage points from the previous month; Healthcare services inflation is expected to continue to boost core CPI at a high level, while housing inflation will slow significantly.</p><p>The survey report found that price expectations for many key components of inflation will weaken. The public's perception of the job market is more optimistic and perceptions of household finances have improved.</p><p>These interest rate expectations may change again on Tuesday morning Eastern Time when the U.S. Department of Labor will release February CPI inflation data. Economists expect that,<b>The overall U.S. CPI will slow to 6% from a year-on-year increase of 6.4%, but the core CPI, which the Federal Reserve closely watches, only slows from 5.6% to 5.5%, which is still high.</b></p><p><b>Fed Pauses rate hike Cycle?</b></p><p>The survey comes as Silicon Valley Bank announced its collapse last week, the largest bank failure in the United States since 2008. The Federal Reserve, the Treasury Department and the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) laid out a plan on Sunday to protect Silicon Valley Bank depositors' funds, including the launch of an emergency funding facility called the Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP).</p><p>The entire financial market is in panic, and uncertainty surrounding the path of the Fed's rate hike has surged.</p><p>Until last weekend, people had expected that if the inflation report remained strong, the Federal Reserve might raise the rate hike at its March meeting from 25 basis points to 50 basis points.<b>But the Silicon Valley Bank bankruptcy crisis has disrupted the outlook for monetary policy. Not only have investors' expectations for the central bank's rate hike cooled sharply, but now some economists suspect that the Fed won't even stick to the rate hike by 25 basis points.</b></p><p>Federal Reserve officials recently pointed out that the apparent cooling trend of price pressure is actually a \"mirage.\" Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell also said at a congressional hearing last week that the Fed may need to gradually increase its rate hike. However, financial stability concerns are also crucial to the review of monetary policy, which may prompt the Federal Reserve to reconsider its rate hike decision. The Fed is now in a dilemma.</p><p>Some analysts are currently opposed to rate hike. Kevin Cummins, chief U.S. economist at NatWest Markets, believes that in this context,<b>CPI certainly doesn't have that much impact on the market right now.</b></p><p>In fact, Cummins expects that the Fed may not rate hike this month, and he believes that the rate hike cycle is over:</p><p>I think if the inflation data is stronger than expected, that's also a cliche.<b>From this perspective, overheating inflation will be treated as old news if a crisis occurring in financial markets poses downside risks to the economy. If the data is weak, it may increase confidence that the Fed will pause its rate hike.</b>Cummins expects the U.S. economy to slip into recession in the second half of the year. He said the impact of Silicon Valley Bank's bankruptcy could accelerate the recession if banks reduce lending activity. And slowing economic growth may lower inflation.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Fed Reports' Significant Decline in Inflation Expectations', What Happens to CPI Tonight?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nFed Reports' Significant Decline in Inflation Expectations', What Happens to CPI Tonight?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1084101182\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">华尔街见闻 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2023-03-14 16:00</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Economists expect the overall U.S. CPI to remain high. But at a time when the Silicon Valley Bank bankruptcy crisis has roiled the outlook for monetary policy, some economists suspect the Fed won't even stick to rate hike at its next meeting. Americans' expectations for near-term inflation have fallen to nearly two-year lows. The Federal Reserve may repath its rate hike amid turmoil in the financial sector due to the Silicon Valley Bank crisis.</p><p>On Monday Eastern Time, a consumer survey released by the New York Fed showed that U.S. consumers' expectations for future inflation have dropped sharply.</p><p>Specifically, in February, the median inflation expectation for the coming year fell by 0.8 percentage points to 4.2%.<b>The lowest level since May 2021</b>, compared with 5% expected in January. Inflation expectations for the next three years remained unchanged at 2.7%, with long-term inflation expectations rising slightly: The median inflation expectation for the next five years rose by 0.1 percentage points month-on-month to 2.6%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/517481044bfb4335ec8256d3a1da062d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"531\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Consumers expect the price increase of many daily necessities and services to slow down significantly. Gasoline prices are expected to rise by 4.7% in the coming year, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month; Food price growth will continue to slow down, and it is expected to increase by 7.3%, down 1.7 percentage points from the previous month; Healthcare services inflation is expected to continue to boost core CPI at a high level, while housing inflation will slow significantly.</p><p>The survey report found that price expectations for many key components of inflation will weaken. The public's perception of the job market is more optimistic and perceptions of household finances have improved.</p><p>These interest rate expectations may change again on Tuesday morning Eastern Time when the U.S. Department of Labor will release February CPI inflation data. Economists expect that,<b>The overall U.S. CPI will slow to 6% from a year-on-year increase of 6.4%, but the core CPI, which the Federal Reserve closely watches, only slows from 5.6% to 5.5%, which is still high.</b></p><p><b>Fed Pauses rate hike Cycle?</b></p><p>The survey comes as Silicon Valley Bank announced its collapse last week, the largest bank failure in the United States since 2008. The Federal Reserve, the Treasury Department and the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) laid out a plan on Sunday to protect Silicon Valley Bank depositors' funds, including the launch of an emergency funding facility called the Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP).</p><p>The entire financial market is in panic, and uncertainty surrounding the path of the Fed's rate hike has surged.</p><p>Until last weekend, people had expected that if the inflation report remained strong, the Federal Reserve might raise the rate hike at its March meeting from 25 basis points to 50 basis points.<b>But the Silicon Valley Bank bankruptcy crisis has disrupted the outlook for monetary policy. Not only have investors' expectations for the central bank's rate hike cooled sharply, but now some economists suspect that the Fed won't even stick to the rate hike by 25 basis points.</b></p><p>Federal Reserve officials recently pointed out that the apparent cooling trend of price pressure is actually a \"mirage.\" Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell also said at a congressional hearing last week that the Fed may need to gradually increase its rate hike. However, financial stability concerns are also crucial to the review of monetary policy, which may prompt the Federal Reserve to reconsider its rate hike decision. The Fed is now in a dilemma.</p><p>Some analysts are currently opposed to rate hike. Kevin Cummins, chief U.S. economist at NatWest Markets, believes that in this context,<b>CPI certainly doesn't have that much impact on the market right now.</b></p><p>In fact, Cummins expects that the Fed may not rate hike this month, and he believes that the rate hike cycle is over:</p><p>I think if the inflation data is stronger than expected, that's also a cliche.<b>From this perspective, overheating inflation will be treated as old news if a crisis occurring in financial markets poses downside risks to the economy. If the data is weak, it may increase confidence that the Fed will pause its rate hike.</b>Cummins expects the U.S. economy to slip into recession in the second half of the year. He said the impact of Silicon Valley Bank's bankruptcy could accelerate the recession if banks reduce lending activity. And slowing economic growth may lower inflation.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df74a3173019df9d7cecb61fc0d78eea","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1110288097","content_text":"经济学家预计美国整体CPI仍将处于高位。但在硅谷银行破产危机扰乱了货币政策前景之际，一些经济学家怀疑美联储甚至不会在下次会议上坚持加息。美国人对近期通胀的预期降至近两年来的低点。在硅谷银行危机造成金融行业动荡之际，美联储可能重新调整加息路径。美东时间周一，纽约联储公布的消费者调查显示，美国消费者对未来的通胀预期大幅下降。具体来看，在2月份，未来一年的通胀预期中值下降了0.8个百分点至4.2%，为2021年5月以来的最低水平，而1月份这一预期为5%。未来三年的通胀预期维持在2.7%不变，长期通胀预期略有上升：未来五年的通胀预期中值环比上升了0.1个百分点至2.6%。消费者们预计许多日常用品和服务的价格上涨速度将显著放缓，预计未来一年汽油价格将上涨4.7%，环比下降0.4个百分点；食品价格增长将继续放缓，预计增长7.3%，环比下降1.7个百分点；医疗服务通胀预计将继续助推核心CPI居于高位，而住房通胀将显著放缓。调查报告发现，许多通胀关键组成部分的价格预期都将走软。公众对就业市场的看法更为乐观，对家庭财务状况的看法也有所改善。美东时间周二上午，美国劳工部将公布2月CPI通胀数据，届时这些利率预期可能再次发生变化。经济学家预计，美国整体CPI将从6.4%的同比涨幅放缓至6%，但美联储密切关注的核心CPI仅从5.6%放缓至5.5%，仍处于高位。美联储暂停加息周期？在这项调查出炉之际，美国硅谷银行上周宣布倒闭，是自2008年以来美国最大的银行倒闭事件。美联储、财政部和联邦存款保险公司（FDIC）周日制定了一项计划，以保护硅谷银行的储户资金，其中包括推出一项名为银行定期融资计划（Bank Term Funding Program, BTFP) 的紧急融资工具。整个金融市场上人心惶惶，围绕美联储加息路径的不确定性激增。直到上周末，人们原本预计如果此次通胀报告依然强劲，美联储可能将3月会议的加息幅度从25个基点提高至50个基点，但硅谷银行破产危机扰乱了货币政策的前景，不仅投资者对央行的加息预期急速降温，现在一些经济学家怀疑美联储甚至不会坚持加息25个基点。美联储官员近日指出，价格压力表面上的降温趋势实际上是一种“海市蜃楼”。美联储主席鲍威尔上周在国会听证会上也表示，美联储可能需要逐步加大加息力度。然而金融稳定的担忧对货币政策的审议也至关重要，可能会促使美联储重新考虑加息决定。美联储现在进退两难。一些分析师目前反对加息。NatWest Markets 首席美国经济学家 Kevin Cummins 认为，在这种背景下，CPI现在对市场的影响肯定没有那么大。事实上，Cummins 预期美联储本月可能不会加息，他认为加息周期已经结束：我认为，如果通胀数据比预期的更强劲，那也已经是老生常谈了。从这个角度来看，如果金融市场发生的危机给经济带来下行风险，通胀过热将被视为旧闻。如果数据疲软，可能会让人们更加相信美联储会暂停加息。Cummins 预计美国经济将在今年下半年陷入衰退。他表示，如果银行减少放贷活动，硅谷银行破产的影响可能会加速经济衰退。而经济增长放缓可能会降低通胀。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2745,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9949540248,"gmtCreate":1678781495885,"gmtModify":1678781499924,"author":{"id":"3576374040053118","authorId":"3576374040053118","name":"逐步涨","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b860305d59f5f83146cc00f33e44b75","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576374040053118","idStr":"3576374040053118"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[财迷]&nbsp;","listText":"[财迷]&nbsp;","text":"[财迷]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9949540248","repostId":"1121885156","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1121885156","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1678780911,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1121885156?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-03-14 16:01","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"U.S. bank stocks rebounded, First Republic Bank's U.S. stocks rose more than 26% before the market opened","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1121885156","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"3月14日，周一暴跌超60%的第一共和银行盘前涨超26%。同时，阿莱恩斯西部银行涨13%，嘉信理财涨超5%。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>On March 14, First Republic Bank, which plummeted more than 60% on Monday, rose more than 26% before the market. At the same time, Alliance Western Bank rose 13%, and Charles Schwab rose more than 5%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eb694717be1981abfd755c15964428bd\" tg-width=\"449\" tg-height=\"431\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>U.S. bank stocks rebounded, First Republic Bank's U.S. stocks rose more than 26% before the market opened</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nU.S. bank stocks rebounded, First Republic Bank's U.S. stocks rose more than 26% before the market opened\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2023-03-14 16:01</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>On March 14, First Republic Bank, which plummeted more than 60% on Monday, rose more than 26% before the market. At the same time, Alliance Western Bank rose 13%, and Charles Schwab rose more than 5%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eb694717be1981abfd755c15964428bd\" tg-width=\"449\" tg-height=\"431\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4258cd0edd20f0c6d2f9cff3da54a1b4","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1121885156","content_text":"3月14日，周一暴跌超60%的第一共和银行盘前涨超26%。同时，阿莱恩斯西部银行涨13%，嘉信理财涨超5%。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"FRC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2076,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9949128674,"gmtCreate":1678445705199,"gmtModify":1678445709245,"author":{"id":"3576374040053118","authorId":"3576374040053118","name":"逐步涨","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b860305d59f5f83146cc00f33e44b75","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576374040053118","idStr":"3576374040053118"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[财迷]&nbsp;","listText":"[财迷]&nbsp;","text":"[财迷]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9949128674","repostId":"1142392712","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1142392712","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"ETF爱好者都关注了，走在被动投资最前沿","home_visible":1,"media_name":"ETF小帮手","id":"1030108964","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/53452c6d05728a1369e33ffed184d759"},"pubTimestamp":1678441582,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1142392712?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-03-10 17:46","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"ETF Tracking | Silicon Valley Bank fell 60%, collapsing the banking sector! Bank of America ETF bargain hunting or throwing knives?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1142392712","media":"ETF小帮手","summary":"隔夜惊魂一夜，美股费城银行指数暴跌7.7%，创下2020年6月份以来最差单日表现。美国的银行挤兑数量正在上升，ETF 面临风险。隔夜惊魂一夜，美股费城银行指数暴跌7.7%，创下2020年6月份以来最差","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Overnight shock, the U.S. stock Philadelphia Bank Index plummeted 7.7%, the worst single-day performance since June 2020. The number of bank runs in the U.S. is rising, and ETFs are at risk. Overnight shock, the U.S. stock Philadelphia Bank Index plummeted 7.7%, the worst single-day performance since June 2020.</p><p>On the news side, there were mainly two thunders:</p><p>For one, Silvergate, a bank focused on investing in cryptocurrencies, announced the termination of operations on Wednesday.</p><p>And second,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SIVB\">Silicon Valley Bank</a>There was a liquidity crisis, which plummeted 60% overnight, and plummeted 21% after the publication, which frightened investors.</p><p>Most bank stocks are falling sharply.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>And<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WFC\">Wells Fargo</a>Stock prices all fell more than 5% on Thursday,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SCHW\">Charles Schwab</a>Shares are down about 7%, while First Republic (FRC) shares are down 17%. Entering the crypto industry's<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SBNY\">Signature Bank</a>It's down 12%.</p><p><p style=\"text-align:left;\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e29b2657e818e6e01e5253c58d78a266\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Such a plunge has also put pressure on regional bank ETFs, The SPDR S&P Bank ETF (KRE) is down 8%, the SPDR S&P Bank ETF (KBE) is down 7.3%, and the Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLF) is down about 4%.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ad79ff6a2dbd394eabfa077ad4808d0e\" tg-width=\"1141\" tg-height=\"311\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><b>Source: ETF.com, ranked by largest to smallest AUM</b></p><p><b>What the hell is going on?</b></p><p>According to the data, on Thursday morning local time, Silicon Valley Bank announced that the sale of some securities in its investment portfolio would result in a loss of US $1.8 billion. To offset the losses, Silicon Valley Bank is seeking to raise $2.25 billion through the sale of common stock and preferred shares in what Wall Street sees as a panic asset sell-off and violent dilution of equity.</p><p>The question is, it may obviously lead to a loss of US $1.8 billion, why does Silicon Valley Bank sell its securities?</p><p>It is reported that Silicon Valley Bank is facing<b>Loss of deposits + impairment of bonds</b>The double dilemma of.</p><p>Silicon Valley Bank's securities available for sale basically consist of U.S. Treasury Bond and mortgage-backed securities, and the Federal Reserve's sharp rate hike over the past year has caused the value of bonds to fall-especially those with many years to mature.</p><p>At the same time, savers are looking for higher yields as the Federal Reserve keeps raising interest rates,<b>The increase in paper losses coincided with a decrease in bank deposits, leading to a liquidity crisis at Silicon Valley Bank.</b></p><p>Analysts pointed out that Silicon Valley Bank's liquidity crisis spooked investors because the bank has historically been a very strong and well-run bank. If even Silicon Valley Bank has problems now, investors can't help wondering what will happen to other banks that are inferior to Silicon Valley Bank in terms of assets and reputation.</p><p>What the market is most worried about is that the bursting of the technology bubble may be transmitted to the U.S. financial system, and even the financial crisis will repeat itself.</p><p>According to media reports, the panic is continuing to spread. Founder Collective, Activant Capital, USV and other institutions have recommended that companies withdraw funds from Silicon Valley Bank.</p><p>The Founders Fund, a venture capital fund co-founded by \"Silicon Valley Godfather\" Peter Thiel, recommended that the company withdraw funds from Silicon Valley Bank, saying that withdrawing funds from the bank would have no adverse effects.</p><p><b>Is it safe to buy bank ETFs now?</b></p><p>Silicon Valley Bank's sharp decline is \"sending shockwaves to the financial industry.\" This adds to concerns about rising deposit costs, weakening demand for loans, a potentially weakening credit cycle and a weakening commercial real estate market.</p><p>At this stage, given the volatility of the bond market, it is difficult to recommend investing in banks. We recently saw the 10-year bond yield exceed 4% for the first time in months, and the 2-year bond yield rise to its highest level since 2007. As a result, there will be a lot of rotation in the market as savers seek higher yields.</p><p>At the same time, it is never appropriate to catch the falling knife and fight with the Fed. With negative sentiment still creeping around, we're likely to see ETFs continue to fall in the coming days.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>ETF Tracking | Silicon Valley Bank fell 60%, collapsing the banking sector! Bank of America ETF bargain hunting or throwing knives?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nETF Tracking | Silicon Valley Bank fell 60%, collapsing the banking sector! Bank of America ETF bargain hunting or throwing knives?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1030108964\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/53452c6d05728a1369e33ffed184d759);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">ETF小帮手 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2023-03-10 17:46</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Overnight shock, the U.S. stock Philadelphia Bank Index plummeted 7.7%, the worst single-day performance since June 2020. The number of bank runs in the U.S. is rising, and ETFs are at risk. Overnight shock, the U.S. stock Philadelphia Bank Index plummeted 7.7%, the worst single-day performance since June 2020.</p><p>On the news side, there were mainly two thunders:</p><p>For one, Silvergate, a bank focused on investing in cryptocurrencies, announced the termination of operations on Wednesday.</p><p>And second,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SIVB\">Silicon Valley Bank</a>There was a liquidity crisis, which plummeted 60% overnight, and plummeted 21% after the publication, which frightened investors.</p><p>Most bank stocks are falling sharply.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>And<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WFC\">Wells Fargo</a>Stock prices all fell more than 5% on Thursday,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SCHW\">Charles Schwab</a>Shares are down about 7%, while First Republic (FRC) shares are down 17%. Entering the crypto industry's<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SBNY\">Signature Bank</a>It's down 12%.</p><p><p style=\"text-align:left;\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e29b2657e818e6e01e5253c58d78a266\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Such a plunge has also put pressure on regional bank ETFs, The SPDR S&P Bank ETF (KRE) is down 8%, the SPDR S&P Bank ETF (KBE) is down 7.3%, and the Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLF) is down about 4%.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ad79ff6a2dbd394eabfa077ad4808d0e\" tg-width=\"1141\" tg-height=\"311\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><b>Source: ETF.com, ranked by largest to smallest AUM</b></p><p><b>What the hell is going on?</b></p><p>According to the data, on Thursday morning local time, Silicon Valley Bank announced that the sale of some securities in its investment portfolio would result in a loss of US $1.8 billion. To offset the losses, Silicon Valley Bank is seeking to raise $2.25 billion through the sale of common stock and preferred shares in what Wall Street sees as a panic asset sell-off and violent dilution of equity.</p><p>The question is, it may obviously lead to a loss of US $1.8 billion, why does Silicon Valley Bank sell its securities?</p><p>It is reported that Silicon Valley Bank is facing<b>Loss of deposits + impairment of bonds</b>The double dilemma of.</p><p>Silicon Valley Bank's securities available for sale basically consist of U.S. Treasury Bond and mortgage-backed securities, and the Federal Reserve's sharp rate hike over the past year has caused the value of bonds to fall-especially those with many years to mature.</p><p>At the same time, savers are looking for higher yields as the Federal Reserve keeps raising interest rates,<b>The increase in paper losses coincided with a decrease in bank deposits, leading to a liquidity crisis at Silicon Valley Bank.</b></p><p>Analysts pointed out that Silicon Valley Bank's liquidity crisis spooked investors because the bank has historically been a very strong and well-run bank. If even Silicon Valley Bank has problems now, investors can't help wondering what will happen to other banks that are inferior to Silicon Valley Bank in terms of assets and reputation.</p><p>What the market is most worried about is that the bursting of the technology bubble may be transmitted to the U.S. financial system, and even the financial crisis will repeat itself.</p><p>According to media reports, the panic is continuing to spread. Founder Collective, Activant Capital, USV and other institutions have recommended that companies withdraw funds from Silicon Valley Bank.</p><p>The Founders Fund, a venture capital fund co-founded by \"Silicon Valley Godfather\" Peter Thiel, recommended that the company withdraw funds from Silicon Valley Bank, saying that withdrawing funds from the bank would have no adverse effects.</p><p><b>Is it safe to buy bank ETFs now?</b></p><p>Silicon Valley Bank's sharp decline is \"sending shockwaves to the financial industry.\" This adds to concerns about rising deposit costs, weakening demand for loans, a potentially weakening credit cycle and a weakening commercial real estate market.</p><p>At this stage, given the volatility of the bond market, it is difficult to recommend investing in banks. We recently saw the 10-year bond yield exceed 4% for the first time in months, and the 2-year bond yield rise to its highest level since 2007. As a result, there will be a lot of rotation in the market as savers seek higher yields.</p><p>At the same time, it is never appropriate to catch the falling knife and fight with the Fed. With negative sentiment still creeping around, we're likely to see ETFs continue to fall in the coming days.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8fd5271ba4885dabd7633b23dfb3304b","relate_stocks":{"159887":"银行ETF","161121":"银行","512800":"银行ETF","LU0390134368.USD":"FRANKLIN GLOBAL GROWTH \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4211":"区域性银行","SCHW":"嘉信理财","WFC":"富国银行","KRE":"区域银行指数ETF-SPDR KBW","BK4588":"碎股","LU1861217088.USD":"贝莱德金融科技A2","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","IAT":"安硕美国地区银行ETF","KBE":"银行指数ETF-SPDR KBW","XLF":"金融ETF","SBNY":"签字银行","LU1861220207.SGD":"Blackrock FinTech A2 SGD-H","BAC":"美国银行"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1142392712","content_text":"隔夜惊魂一夜，美股费城银行指数暴跌7.7%，创下2020年6月份以来最差单日表现。美国的银行挤兑数量正在上升，ETF 面临风险。隔夜惊魂一夜，美股费城银行指数暴跌7.7%，创下2020年6月份以来最差单日表现。消息面上，主要是爆了两个雷：其一，周三专注于投资加密货币的银行Silvergate宣布终止运营。其二，硅谷银行出现流动性危机，隔夜暴跌60%，截至发文盘后暴跌21%，把投资者都吓坏了。大多数银行股在大幅下挫。摩根大通、美国银行 和富国银行的股价周四均下跌超过 5%，嘉信理财股价下跌约 7%，而 First Republic (FRC）股价下跌 17%。进入加密行业的 Signature Bank 下跌了 12%。这样的暴跌也给地区银行ETF带来压力，SPDR S&P Bank ETF (KRE) 下跌 8%，SPDR S&P Bank ETF (KBE) 下跌 7.3%，Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLF) 下跌约 4%。数据来源：ETF.com，按资产管理规模由大到小排列到底是怎么一回事儿？资料显示，当地时间周四早晨，硅谷银行宣布，出售投资组合中的部分证券将导致18亿美元的亏损。为抵消损失，硅谷银行正寻求通过出售普通股和优先股募资22.5亿美元，这被华尔街视为是恐慌性的资产抛售和对股权的猛烈稀释。问题来了，明明可能导致18亿美元的亏损，为啥硅谷银行还要抛售手中的证券？据悉，硅谷银行正面临存款流失+债券减值的双重困境。硅谷银行可供出售的证券基本上由美国国债和抵押贷款支持证券组成，过去一年美联储大幅加息，导致债券价值下跌——尤其是那些还有很多年到期的债券。与此同时，储蓄者在美联储不断提高利率的情况下寻求更高的收益率，账面损失的增加与银行存款的减少同时出现，导致硅谷银行出现流动性危机。分析师指出，硅谷银行的流动性危机把投资者吓坏了，因为该行历来是一家非常强大、运营良好的银行。如果连硅谷银行现在都有了问题，投资者不免会想，其他那些在资产和声誉方面不如硅谷银行的银行会怎么样。市场最担心的是，科技泡沫的破灭恐怕会传导至美国的金融体系，甚至金融危机将会重演。据媒体报道，目前恐慌正在持续蔓延，Founder Collective、Activant Capital、USV等多家机构建议企业从硅谷银行取出资金。“硅谷教父”彼得蒂尔联合创立的风险投资基金Founders Fund建议公司从硅谷银行撤资，并称将资金从该行撤出没有任何不利影响。现在买入银行ETF是否安全？硅谷银行的大幅下跌正在“给金融业带来冲击波”。这加剧了人们对存款成本上升、贷款需求减弱、信贷周期可能减弱以及商业房地产市场疲软的担忧。在现阶段，考虑到债券市场的波动性，很难推荐投资于银行。我们最近看到 10 年期债券收益率数月来首次超过 4%，并且 2 年期债券收益率上升至 2007 年以来的最高水平。因此，随着储户寻求更高的收益率，市场将出现大量轮换。同时，始终不宜接住落刀并与美联储大打出手。由于负面情绪仍在四处蔓延，我们很可能会看到 ETF 在未来几天继续下跌。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"159887":1,"161121":1,"512800":1,"SCHW":1,"SIVB":1,"KBE":1,"XLF":1,"FRC":1,"SBNY":1,"WFC":1,"IAT":1,"BAC":1,"KRE":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2578,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9949128139,"gmtCreate":1678445695321,"gmtModify":1678445698768,"author":{"id":"3576374040053118","authorId":"3576374040053118","name":"逐步涨","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b860305d59f5f83146cc00f33e44b75","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576374040053118","idStr":"3576374040053118"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[财迷]&nbsp;","listText":"[财迷]&nbsp;","text":"[财迷]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9949128139","repostId":"1107576829","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1107576829","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1678442199,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1107576829?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-03-10 17:56","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"It's non-farm night again! Will there be another \"bloody storm\" tonight?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1107576829","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"华尔街普遍认为2月就业数据将显著下滑，但高于共识的数据也将助长美联储在本月加息50基点的预期。本周ADP数据超预期后，市场今夜聚焦更为重磅的非农就业报告：如果弱于预期，美联储3月或还将维持加息25基点","content":"<p><html><head></head><body><b>Wall Street generally believes that February employment data will decline significantly, but higher-than-consensus data will also fuel the Fed's expectation of a 50 basis point rate hike this month.</b>After this week's ADP data exceeded expectations, the market focused on a more heavy non-farm payrolls report tonight: if it is weaker than expected, the Federal Reserve may maintain a rate hike of 25 basis points in March; But if it is better than expected, it proves that the job market is still hot, and the 50 basis point rate hike may be \"certain.\"</p><p>At 21:30 Beijing time on Friday, the U.S. Department of Labor will release the February non-farm payrolls report.<b>Economists generally expect new jobs to slow from last month, the unemployment rate to be basically flat, and wage inflation to rise slightly.</b>Specifically:</p><p>The market generally expects 225,000 new non-farm employment in February, compared with 517,000 in January; The unemployment rate is expected to remain at 3.4%, after the Federal Reserve expected it to peak at 4.6% in 2023; Average hourly earnings are expected to rise from 4.4 to 4.8% year-on-year and 0.3% month-on-month. Forecasts from 26 large investment banks show that investment banks generally believe that the non-agricultural growth rate in February dropped sharply compared with the previous value, but there is a large gap in growth expectations among investment banks; In contrast, the annual rate of unemployment rate and average hourly wage are not much different from the previous value.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d244134dd5b6b04064cff97de1e4d33a\" tg-width=\"439\" tg-height=\"757\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Before the release of this non-farm payroll data, the U.S. ADP employment data exceeded expectations, which is usually considered as proof of the hot job market.<b>However, analysts had previously generally believed that the January employment data was \"abnormally amplified\", mainly due to seasonal factors.</b></p><p>JPMorgan believes that,<b>January data exaggerated the underlying strength of the labor market, and this situation may not be repeated in February</b>, mainly for the following reasons:</p><p>1. This figure was boosted by the end of strike action, which increased by 36,000 at one time, possibly supporting the digital increase relative to the regular seasonal pattern; 2. Warm weather conditions may help, and while similar pictures can be seen in February data, they are not as biased compared to January 3. The argument of seasonal factors was more supportive in January and may be less supportive in February. The U.S. economy needs to add a lot of jobs before seasonally adjusted to get the seasonally adjusted data higher. Although Nomura Securities agreed that the January non-farm payrolls data may have been boosted by temporary factors, Nomura believes that,<b>The weather remains warm in February, and the labor market is not expected to suffer a major reversal:</b></p><p>According to San Francisco Fed estimates, January weather factors \"seem\" to add 130,000 to non-farm payrolls, however, early February weather remained very warm by historical standards, suggesting that weather-induced growth is unlikely to be fully reversed. Weather-sensitive industries, such as construction, appeared to continue to create jobs at a steady pace in February. In addition, JPMorgan Chase noted that in addition to new jobs in February,<b>Attention should also be paid to corrections to previous data:</b></p><p>Historically, the last five times (July 2021, August 2021, November 2021, March 2022, August 2022)<b>When non-farm payrolls data is above the 3-month average, there are four downward revisions</b>。 And when the data deviates from the \"norm\", the possibility of modification is greater. JPMorgan believes<b>, revised and lower-than-expected non-farm payrolls data will be regarded as positive by the market,</b>Because it softens the near-term talk surrounding another round of inflation.</p><p>This week's non-farm payrolls data may determine the extent of interest rate hikes in March</p><p>Analysts generally believe that the non-agricultural data released this week will have an impact on the Fed's subsequent interest rate decision, and will also influence the market's expectation of peak interest rates.</p><p>Wall Street News previously mentioned that the Federal Reserve will carefully examine three key indicators of non-farm payrolls in February, namely employment, wage growth and unemployment rate.<b>If all three point to a strong labor market, perhaps even only slightly stronger than expected, it will also give the green light to a larger rate hike.</b>Only when it is significantly weaker than expected can the Fed continue to maintain the pace of rate hike of 25 basis points.</p><p>Diane Swonk, chief economist at KPMG, said a big downside \"surprise\" on employment and inflation was needed to get back on the 25 basis point track for rate hike.</p><p>Anna Wong, chief U.S. economist at Bloomberg, said:</p><p><b>If the number of non-farm payrolls is less than 200,000 and the core CPI increase is less than 0.4%, we will maintain our March rate hike forecast of 25 basis points;</b>Such as<b>If employment exceeds 300,000, this alone is enough to drive a 50 basis point rate hike.</b>Anything in between and we're going to lean towards 50 basis points, Powell has opened a pandora's box. Barclays believes that,<b>For Fed decision-making, non-agricultural data is more important than CPI</b>, because the strong growth in employment data alone is enough to drive the Fed's rate hike by 50 basis points:</p><p>Admittedly, this sensitivity to one data point seems inconsistent with Powell's emphasis on the \"overall\" of the data, if, for example, next week's February core CPI estimate is equal to or below our forecast of 0.3% month-over-month growth.<b>But our thinking is that the FOMC is likely to downplay the weak CPI data because a one-month data cannot reflect the likely evolution of inflation given the ongoing pressure on core services inflation from tight labor markets.</b>That is to say, in our opinion,<b>Another fairly strong non-farm payrolls data may be enough to convince the FOMC that it is now farther away from \"sufficiently restricted\" rates than it was thought in December and February of this year.</b>Specifically, Barclays sees a significantly lower threshold for such volatility,<b>Non-farm payrolls data growth of more than 200,000/month is a very reasonable trigger:</b></p><p>If Friday's jobs report shows that non-farm payrolls grow more than the consensus estimate (+200,000), that would be enough for rate hike by 50 basis points, and the median peak rate in 2023 would also rise to 5.6%. Therefore,<b>The non-farm payrolls report to be released this Friday will largely guide the market to interpret and forecast the FOMC meeting in late March.</b></p><p>It should be noted that,<b>Yesterday, the spread between 2-year and 10-year U.S. bond yields on the \"recession curve\" rose above 1% for the first time since 1981.</b>Recession alarm bells have sounded in the United States.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b9d6f02f269577d268397678fd7c750a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"344\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Employment slows from last month</p><p>Investment banks generally expect that the number of new jobs in February may remain strong. Although it will slow down compared with January, they have different views on the extent to which weather factors will affect the employment data in February.</p><p>Goldman Sachs expects non-farm payrolls to rise by 250,000 in February (private sector payrolls were 240,000), above the consensus estimate of 225,000:</p><p><b>Job Market Tight in February, Job Growth Tends to Stay Strong</b>--we think because some companies moved ahead of spring hiring in anticipation of spring labor shortages--and all four big data employment metrics we track did perform strongly in February. Goldman also predicts that high but declining labor demand in the United States \"will more than offset the impact of the rebound in layoffs in the information industry\",<b>Weather factors are not expected to be much of a drag in the report.</b>While temperatures partially returned to normal from an unusually warm January, there was little snow in major population centers during the February survey week, and the major winter storm of February 21 arrived three days after the end of the survey week.</p><p>Nomura expects non-farm payrolls to increase by 265,000 in February, slightly down from 517,000 in January,<b>Still well above the threshold required to keep pace with population growth.</b></p><p><b>Labor hoarding largely underpinned the employment data.</b>Given the difficulty of re-hiring in the future and the relatively optimistic business outlook, those companies that might otherwise lay off employees may have slowed the pace of layoffs at the moment:</p><p><b>On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, non-farm payrolls tend to fall significantly in January.</b>This suggests that much of January's strong growth may have been due to employers avoiding layoffs rather than accelerating hiring. While lower-than-normal seasonal layoffs may have led to fewer re-hirings in February, we believe lower-than-normal seasonal layoffs in January reflect the resilience of the labor market.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3719908f63c2f639a18ace85dd979a6d\" tg-width=\"544\" tg-height=\"524\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Deutsche Bank's forecast was higher than the consensus at 300,000, also due to mild February weather in part. Jefferies economists Aneta Markowska and Thomas Simons expect 290,000 new jobs to be created last month.</p><p>The unemployment rate remains unchanged, hourly wages rise</p><p>Investment banks generally expect the unemployment rate to remain largely around 3.4%, but wage inflation and reduced average working hours may push the hourly wage data up.</p><p>The number of people applying for unemployment benefits for the first time this week was 192,000, which was not much different from the survey window period in January. The number of people who continued to apply for unemployment benefits increased slightly from the previous month, from 1.662 million to 1.672 million.</p><p>Nomura Securities expects,<b>The U.S. unemployment rate is likely to remain at 3.4% in February, and the labor force participation rate will remain unchanged at 62.4%</b>：</p><p>Household employment may have slowed after strong growth over the past two months. However, we expect the unemployment rate to only begin to rise in the third quarter of 2023, with labor hoarding keeping it low in the first half of 2023. Credit Suisse said that due to the \"simple base effect,\"<b>The annual average hourly wage indicator should rise</b>, but added that \"underlying wage growth appears to be slowing across a range of indicators and leading indicators, but the current pace of growth remains uncomfortably high for the Fed.\"<b>The average working week is expected to drop from 34.7 hours to 34.6 hours.</b></p><p>Goldman Sachs expects that,<b>Average hourly earnings will increase by 0.30%, which will drive the year-over-year increase to 4.75%</b>, reflecting persistent but waning wage pressures and neutral calendar effects.</p><p>Nomura believes that the average hourly wage in February will increase by 0.4% month-on-month.<b>This is partly due to a decline in average hours worked from January and signs that wage inflation is accelerating:</b></p><p>Some wage growth metrics, including the ADP wage growth data and the Indeed wage tracker, have stabilized recently.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/53391269f0244665f4592ff65fcd0030\" tg-width=\"552\" tg-height=\"498\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>In addition, Nomura found that,<b>Inflation expectations appear to have become an important factor in the wage setting process:</b></p><p>Short-term inflation expectations surveyed by the University of Michigan rebounded in February, suggesting wage deflation due to lower inflation expectations may not be sustainable.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/07158ae608b72efe43c4c94798d7067f\" tg-width=\"552\" tg-height=\"563\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>While short-term inflation expectations tend to be volatile, for that matter, any unexpected upside in average hourly earnings could add to the Fed's concerns about the risk of another acceleration in inflation.</body></html></p>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>It's non-farm night again! Will there be another \"bloody storm\" tonight?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIt's non-farm night again! Will there be another \"bloody storm\" tonight?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2023-03-10 17:56</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><b>Wall Street generally believes that February employment data will decline significantly, but higher-than-consensus data will also fuel the Fed's expectation of a 50 basis point rate hike this month.</b>After this week's ADP data exceeded expectations, the market focused on a more heavy non-farm payrolls report tonight: if it is weaker than expected, the Federal Reserve may maintain a rate hike of 25 basis points in March; But if it is better than expected, it proves that the job market is still hot, and the 50 basis point rate hike may be \"certain.\"</p><p>At 21:30 Beijing time on Friday, the U.S. Department of Labor will release the February non-farm payrolls report.<b>Economists generally expect new jobs to slow from last month, the unemployment rate to be basically flat, and wage inflation to rise slightly.</b>Specifically:</p><p>The market generally expects 225,000 new non-farm employment in February, compared with 517,000 in January; The unemployment rate is expected to remain at 3.4%, after the Federal Reserve expected it to peak at 4.6% in 2023; Average hourly earnings are expected to rise from 4.4 to 4.8% year-on-year and 0.3% month-on-month. Forecasts from 26 large investment banks show that investment banks generally believe that the non-agricultural growth rate in February dropped sharply compared with the previous value, but there is a large gap in growth expectations among investment banks; In contrast, the annual rate of unemployment rate and average hourly wage are not much different from the previous value.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d244134dd5b6b04064cff97de1e4d33a\" tg-width=\"439\" tg-height=\"757\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Before the release of this non-farm payroll data, the U.S. ADP employment data exceeded expectations, which is usually considered as proof of the hot job market.<b>However, analysts had previously generally believed that the January employment data was \"abnormally amplified\", mainly due to seasonal factors.</b></p><p>JPMorgan believes that,<b>January data exaggerated the underlying strength of the labor market, and this situation may not be repeated in February</b>, mainly for the following reasons:</p><p>1. This figure was boosted by the end of strike action, which increased by 36,000 at one time, possibly supporting the digital increase relative to the regular seasonal pattern; 2. Warm weather conditions may help, and while similar pictures can be seen in February data, they are not as biased compared to January 3. The argument of seasonal factors was more supportive in January and may be less supportive in February. The U.S. economy needs to add a lot of jobs before seasonally adjusted to get the seasonally adjusted data higher. Although Nomura Securities agreed that the January non-farm payrolls data may have been boosted by temporary factors, Nomura believes that,<b>The weather remains warm in February, and the labor market is not expected to suffer a major reversal:</b></p><p>According to San Francisco Fed estimates, January weather factors \"seem\" to add 130,000 to non-farm payrolls, however, early February weather remained very warm by historical standards, suggesting that weather-induced growth is unlikely to be fully reversed. Weather-sensitive industries, such as construction, appeared to continue to create jobs at a steady pace in February. In addition, JPMorgan Chase noted that in addition to new jobs in February,<b>Attention should also be paid to corrections to previous data:</b></p><p>Historically, the last five times (July 2021, August 2021, November 2021, March 2022, August 2022)<b>When non-farm payrolls data is above the 3-month average, there are four downward revisions</b>。 And when the data deviates from the \"norm\", the possibility of modification is greater. JPMorgan believes<b>, revised and lower-than-expected non-farm payrolls data will be regarded as positive by the market,</b>Because it softens the near-term talk surrounding another round of inflation.</p><p>This week's non-farm payrolls data may determine the extent of interest rate hikes in March</p><p>Analysts generally believe that the non-agricultural data released this week will have an impact on the Fed's subsequent interest rate decision, and will also influence the market's expectation of peak interest rates.</p><p>Wall Street News previously mentioned that the Federal Reserve will carefully examine three key indicators of non-farm payrolls in February, namely employment, wage growth and unemployment rate.<b>If all three point to a strong labor market, perhaps even only slightly stronger than expected, it will also give the green light to a larger rate hike.</b>Only when it is significantly weaker than expected can the Fed continue to maintain the pace of rate hike of 25 basis points.</p><p>Diane Swonk, chief economist at KPMG, said a big downside \"surprise\" on employment and inflation was needed to get back on the 25 basis point track for rate hike.</p><p>Anna Wong, chief U.S. economist at Bloomberg, said:</p><p><b>If the number of non-farm payrolls is less than 200,000 and the core CPI increase is less than 0.4%, we will maintain our March rate hike forecast of 25 basis points;</b>Such as<b>If employment exceeds 300,000, this alone is enough to drive a 50 basis point rate hike.</b>Anything in between and we're going to lean towards 50 basis points, Powell has opened a pandora's box. Barclays believes that,<b>For Fed decision-making, non-agricultural data is more important than CPI</b>, because the strong growth in employment data alone is enough to drive the Fed's rate hike by 50 basis points:</p><p>Admittedly, this sensitivity to one data point seems inconsistent with Powell's emphasis on the \"overall\" of the data, if, for example, next week's February core CPI estimate is equal to or below our forecast of 0.3% month-over-month growth.<b>But our thinking is that the FOMC is likely to downplay the weak CPI data because a one-month data cannot reflect the likely evolution of inflation given the ongoing pressure on core services inflation from tight labor markets.</b>That is to say, in our opinion,<b>Another fairly strong non-farm payrolls data may be enough to convince the FOMC that it is now farther away from \"sufficiently restricted\" rates than it was thought in December and February of this year.</b>Specifically, Barclays sees a significantly lower threshold for such volatility,<b>Non-farm payrolls data growth of more than 200,000/month is a very reasonable trigger:</b></p><p>If Friday's jobs report shows that non-farm payrolls grow more than the consensus estimate (+200,000), that would be enough for rate hike by 50 basis points, and the median peak rate in 2023 would also rise to 5.6%. Therefore,<b>The non-farm payrolls report to be released this Friday will largely guide the market to interpret and forecast the FOMC meeting in late March.</b></p><p>It should be noted that,<b>Yesterday, the spread between 2-year and 10-year U.S. bond yields on the \"recession curve\" rose above 1% for the first time since 1981.</b>Recession alarm bells have sounded in the United States.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b9d6f02f269577d268397678fd7c750a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"344\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Employment slows from last month</p><p>Investment banks generally expect that the number of new jobs in February may remain strong. Although it will slow down compared with January, they have different views on the extent to which weather factors will affect the employment data in February.</p><p>Goldman Sachs expects non-farm payrolls to rise by 250,000 in February (private sector payrolls were 240,000), above the consensus estimate of 225,000:</p><p><b>Job Market Tight in February, Job Growth Tends to Stay Strong</b>--we think because some companies moved ahead of spring hiring in anticipation of spring labor shortages--and all four big data employment metrics we track did perform strongly in February. Goldman also predicts that high but declining labor demand in the United States \"will more than offset the impact of the rebound in layoffs in the information industry\",<b>Weather factors are not expected to be much of a drag in the report.</b>While temperatures partially returned to normal from an unusually warm January, there was little snow in major population centers during the February survey week, and the major winter storm of February 21 arrived three days after the end of the survey week.</p><p>Nomura expects non-farm payrolls to increase by 265,000 in February, slightly down from 517,000 in January,<b>Still well above the threshold required to keep pace with population growth.</b></p><p><b>Labor hoarding largely underpinned the employment data.</b>Given the difficulty of re-hiring in the future and the relatively optimistic business outlook, those companies that might otherwise lay off employees may have slowed the pace of layoffs at the moment:</p><p><b>On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, non-farm payrolls tend to fall significantly in January.</b>This suggests that much of January's strong growth may have been due to employers avoiding layoffs rather than accelerating hiring. While lower-than-normal seasonal layoffs may have led to fewer re-hirings in February, we believe lower-than-normal seasonal layoffs in January reflect the resilience of the labor market.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3719908f63c2f639a18ace85dd979a6d\" tg-width=\"544\" tg-height=\"524\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Deutsche Bank's forecast was higher than the consensus at 300,000, also due to mild February weather in part. Jefferies economists Aneta Markowska and Thomas Simons expect 290,000 new jobs to be created last month.</p><p>The unemployment rate remains unchanged, hourly wages rise</p><p>Investment banks generally expect the unemployment rate to remain largely around 3.4%, but wage inflation and reduced average working hours may push the hourly wage data up.</p><p>The number of people applying for unemployment benefits for the first time this week was 192,000, which was not much different from the survey window period in January. The number of people who continued to apply for unemployment benefits increased slightly from the previous month, from 1.662 million to 1.672 million.</p><p>Nomura Securities expects,<b>The U.S. unemployment rate is likely to remain at 3.4% in February, and the labor force participation rate will remain unchanged at 62.4%</b>：</p><p>Household employment may have slowed after strong growth over the past two months. However, we expect the unemployment rate to only begin to rise in the third quarter of 2023, with labor hoarding keeping it low in the first half of 2023. Credit Suisse said that due to the \"simple base effect,\"<b>The annual average hourly wage indicator should rise</b>, but added that \"underlying wage growth appears to be slowing across a range of indicators and leading indicators, but the current pace of growth remains uncomfortably high for the Fed.\"<b>The average working week is expected to drop from 34.7 hours to 34.6 hours.</b></p><p>Goldman Sachs expects that,<b>Average hourly earnings will increase by 0.30%, which will drive the year-over-year increase to 4.75%</b>, reflecting persistent but waning wage pressures and neutral calendar effects.</p><p>Nomura believes that the average hourly wage in February will increase by 0.4% month-on-month.<b>This is partly due to a decline in average hours worked from January and signs that wage inflation is accelerating:</b></p><p>Some wage growth metrics, including the ADP wage growth data and the Indeed wage tracker, have stabilized recently.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/53391269f0244665f4592ff65fcd0030\" tg-width=\"552\" tg-height=\"498\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>In addition, Nomura found that,<b>Inflation expectations appear to have become an important factor in the wage setting process:</b></p><p>Short-term inflation expectations surveyed by the University of Michigan rebounded in February, suggesting wage deflation due to lower inflation expectations may not be sustainable.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/07158ae608b72efe43c4c94798d7067f\" tg-width=\"552\" tg-height=\"563\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>While short-term inflation expectations tend to be volatile, for that matter, any unexpected upside in average hourly earnings could add to the Fed's concerns about the risk of another acceleration in inflation.</body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3683666\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9963fdf0bdb1101a0e95978b643c3c62","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3683666","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1107576829","content_text":"华尔街普遍认为2月就业数据将显著下滑，但高于共识的数据也将助长美联储在本月加息50基点的预期。本周ADP数据超预期后，市场今夜聚焦更为重磅的非农就业报告：如果弱于预期，美联储3月或还将维持加息25基点；但若好于预期，证明就业市场依旧火热，50基点加息可能“板上钉钉”。北京时间周五21:30，美国劳工部将发布2月非农就业报告。经济学家普遍预计新增就业将较上月有所放缓，失业率基本持平，工资通胀将小幅上行，具体而言：市场普遍预期2月新增非农就业人数22.5万，1月为51.7万；失业率预计将维持在3.4%，此前美联储预计失业率将在2023年达到4.6%的峰值；平均时薪同比预计将从4.4上升至4.8%，环比预计将上升0.3%。26家大型投行预测显示，投行普遍认为2月非农增速相比前值大幅下滑，但投行之间的增幅预期差距较大；相比之下失业率和平均时薪年率和前值相差不大。在本次非农数据公布之前，美国ADP就业数据超出预期，这通常被认为是就业市场火热的证明。然而分析师们此前普遍认为1月就业数据被“异常地放大”，这主要是由于季节性因素。摩根大通认为，1月数据夸大了劳动力市场的潜在实力，而这种情况可能不会在2月份重演，主要有一下几个原因：1. 这一数字受到了罢工行动结束的提振，罢工行动一次性增加了3.6万，可能支持了相对于常规季节性模式的数字增长；2. 温暖的天气条件可能有所帮助，虽然在2月份的数据中可以看到类似的情况，但与1月份相比，它们的偏差没有那么大3. 季节性因素的说法在1月份支持度较高，2月份支持度可能较低，美国经济需要在季节性调整前增加大量就业岗位，才能让经季节性调整的数据走高。尽管野村证券同意1月非农就业数据可能受到了临时因素的提振的说法，但野村认为，2月天气仍然温暖，预计劳动市场不会受到大幅度的逆转：根据旧金山联储的估计，1月份的天气因素“似乎”使得非农数据增加了13万，然而，从历史标准来看，2月初的天气仍然非常温暖，这表明天气导致的增长不太可能全面逆转。对天气敏感的行业，如建筑业，在2月份似乎继续以稳定的速度创造就业机会。此外，摩根大通指出，除了2月份的新增就业人数外，还应关注对先前数据的修正：从历史上看，过去五次（2021年7月、2021年8月、2021年11月、2022年3月、2022年8月）非农就业数据高于3个月平均值时，四次出现了向下修正。并且当数据偏离“规范”时，修改的可能性更大。摩根大通认为，修正以及低于预期的非农就业数据将被市场视为利好，因为它软化了近期围绕另一轮通胀的说法。本周非农数据或将决定3月升息幅度分析师普遍认为，本周公布的非农数据将对美联储后续利率决议产生影响，同时也将左右市场对峰值利率的预期。华尔街见闻此前提及，美联储将仔细审查2月非农的三个关键指标，即就业人数、工资增速和失业率。如果三者都指向强劲的劳动力市场，甚至可能仅略强于预期，也将为更大幅度的加息开绿灯。而只有大幅弱于预期，美联储才可能继续保持25个基点的加息步伐。毕马威首席经济学家Diane Swonk称，需要在就业和通胀方面出现大的下行“惊喜”，才能回到加息25个基点的轨道上。彭博美国首席经济学家Anna Wong表示：如果非农就业人数少于20万，核心CPI涨幅低于0.4%，我们将维持3月份加息25个基点的预测；如果就业人数超过30万，仅此一项就足以推动50个基点的加息。任何介于两者之间的情况，我们都将倾向于50个基点，鲍威尔已经打开了潘多拉魔盒。巴克莱则认为，对于美联储决策而言，非农数据比CPI更重要，因为仅就业数据强劲增长本身就足以推动美联储加息50基点：不可否认，这种对一个数据点的敏感似乎与鲍威尔对数据“整体”的重视不一致，例如，如果下周的2月核心CPI估计值等于或低于我们预测的环比增长0.3%。但我们的想法是，FOMC很可能会淡化疲软的CPI数据，因为考虑到劳动力市场紧张对核心服务通胀的持续压力，一个月的数据无法反映通胀的可能演变。也就是说，在我们看来，如果再出现一个相当强劲的非农就业数据，可能就足以让FOMC相信，与去年12月和今年2月所认为的相比，现在距离“充分限制”的利率更远了。具体而言，巴克莱认为这种波动的门槛明显较低，非农就业数据增长超过20万/月是非常合理的触发因素：如果周五的就业报告显示非农就业人数增长超过共识预期(+20万)，就足以加息50个基点，2023年的峰值利率中值也将上升至5.6%。因此，本周五即将公布的非农就业报告很大程度上将引导市场对于3月下旬的FOMC会议进行解读和预测。需要注意的是，昨日“衰退曲线”2年期和10年期美债收益率的利差自1981年以来首次升至1%以上，美国经济衰退警钟已经敲响。就业人数较上月放缓投行普遍预计，2月新增就业人数可能依旧强劲，尽管会相对1月有所放缓，但在对于天气因素多大程度上将影响2月就业数据方面观点有所不同。高盛预计2月份非农就业人数将增加25万(私营部门就业人数为24万)，高于22.5万的普遍预期：2月份就业市场紧张，就业增长倾向于保持强劲——我们认为，因为一些公司预计春季劳动力短缺，提前进行了春季招聘——而且我们跟踪的所有四个大数据就业指标在2月份确实表现强劲。高盛还预计，美国劳动力需求虽高但不断下降，“将远远抵消信息行业裁员反弹的影响”，预计天气因素不会在报告中产生太大拖累。虽然气温从异常温暖的1月份部分恢复正常，但在2月份的调查周，主要人口中心几乎没有降雪，2月21日的主要冬季风暴在调查周结束三天后到达。野村预计2月非农就业人数将增加26.5万，略低于1月的51.7万，仍远高于与人口增长保持同步所需的门槛。劳动力囤积在很大程度上支撑了就业数据。考虑到未来重新招聘的难度和相对乐观的商业前景，那些原本可能裁员的公司目前可能放慢了裁员的步伐：在非季节性调整的基础上，非农就业往往在1月份大幅下降。这表明，1月份的强劲增长在很大程度上可能是由于雇主避免裁员，而不是加速招聘。虽然季节性裁员低于正常水平可能导致2月份再招聘人数减少，但我们认为1月份季节性裁员低于正常水平反映了劳动力市场的弹性。德意志银行的预期高于共识，为30万人，原因之一同样是2月温和的天气。Jefferies的经济学家Aneta Markowska和Thomas Simons预计上月新增就业29万人。失业率保持不变，工资时薪有所上升投行普遍预计失业率将基本保持在3.4%左右的水平，但工资通胀和平均工作时间减少可能会使时薪数据上升。本周首次申请失业救济人数为19.2万，与1月调查窗口期相差不大，继续申请失业救济人数较上月有小幅上升，从166.2万增至167.2万。野村证券预计，美国2月的失业率可能会维持在3.4%，劳动参与率保持在62.4%不变：在过去两个月的强劲增长之后，家庭就业可能已经放缓。不过，我们预计失业率只会在2023年第三季度开始上升，劳动力囤积使失业率在2023年上半年保持在低水平。瑞士信贷表示，由于“简单的基数效应”，年度平均时薪指标应该会上升，但补充说，“在一系列指标和先行指标中，潜在的工资增长似乎正在放缓，但目前的增长速度对美联储来说仍然高得令人不安。”预计平均每周工作时间将从34.7小时降至34.6小时。高盛预计，平均时薪将增长0.30%，这将推动同比增幅达到4.75%，反映出持续但逐渐减弱的工资压力和中性的日历效应。野村认为2月平均时薪将环比增加0.4%，部分原因是平均工作时长较1月份有所下降，且有迹象表明工资通胀正在加速：一些工资增长指标，包括ADP工资增长数据和Indeed工资跟踪数据，最近已经企稳。此外野村发现，通胀预期似乎已经成为工资设定过程中的一个重要因素：密歇根大学调查的短期通胀预期在2月份出现反弹，这表明通胀预期降低导致的工资通缩可能无法持续。尽管短期通胀预期往往是不稳定的，但就此而言，平均时薪的任何意外上行都可能加剧美联储对通胀再次加速风险的担忧。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2459,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9949128313,"gmtCreate":1678445683933,"gmtModify":1678445687653,"author":{"id":"3576374040053118","authorId":"3576374040053118","name":"逐步涨","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b860305d59f5f83146cc00f33e44b75","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576374040053118","idStr":"3576374040053118"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[财迷]&nbsp;","listText":"[财迷]&nbsp;","text":"[财迷]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9949128313","repostId":"1109757851","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1109757851","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1678442733,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1109757851?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-03-10 18:05","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"RLX Technology's revenue in the fourth quarter of 2022 is 340 million yuan, less than expected","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1109757851","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"四季度净利润（亿元）：-2.28，前值：4.94。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RLX\">RLX Technology</a>Revenue in the fourth quarter of 2022 (100 million yuan):<b>3.4，</b>Expected: 5.46, previous value: 19.04.</p><p>Net profit in the fourth quarter (100 million yuan):<b>-2.28，</b>Previous value: 4.94.</p><p>Non-GAAP net profit in the fourth quarter was 246 million yuan, compared with 536 million yuan in the same period in 2021.</p><p>Gross profit margin in the fourth quarter was 43.6%, compared with 40.2% in the same period in 2021.</p><p>The annual revenue in 2022 will be 5.333 billion yuan, compared with 8.521 billion yuan in the same period last year; Net profit was 1.441 billion yuan, compared with 2.025 billion yuan in the same period last year; The profit per ADS was 1.085 yuan, compared with 1.436 yuan in the same period last year.</p><p>As of press time, RLX Technology fell more than 5% before the market.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6e93e34cacf732b7ab9b63db556341c7\" tg-width=\"449\" tg-height=\"450\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>RLX Technology's revenue in the fourth quarter of 2022 is 340 million yuan, less than expected</title>\n<style 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#7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nRLX Technology's revenue in the fourth quarter of 2022 is 340 million yuan, less than expected\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2023-03-10 18:05</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RLX\">RLX Technology</a>Revenue in the fourth quarter of 2022 (100 million yuan):<b>3.4，</b>Expected: 5.46, previous value: 19.04.</p><p>Net profit in the fourth quarter (100 million yuan):<b>-2.28，</b>Previous value: 4.94.</p><p>Non-GAAP net profit in the fourth quarter was 246 million yuan, compared with 536 million yuan in the same period in 2021.</p><p>Gross profit margin in the fourth quarter was 43.6%, compared with 40.2% in the same period in 2021.</p><p>The annual revenue in 2022 will be 5.333 billion yuan, compared with 8.521 billion yuan in the same period last year; Net profit was 1.441 billion yuan, compared with 2.025 billion yuan in the same period last year; The profit per ADS was 1.085 yuan, compared with 1.436 yuan in the same period last year.</p><p>As of press time, RLX Technology fell more than 5% before the market.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6e93e34cacf732b7ab9b63db556341c7\" tg-width=\"449\" tg-height=\"450\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2edf9f40433de9411118b65473b80b0c","relate_stocks":{"RLX":"雾芯科技"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1109757851","content_text":"RLX科技2022年四季度营收（亿元）：3.4，预期：5.46，前值：19.04。四季度净利润（亿元）：-2.28，前值：4.94。四季度Non-GAAP净利润为2.46亿元，而2021年同期为5.36亿元。四季度毛利率为43.6%，而2021年同期为40.2%。2022年全年营收53.33亿元，上年同期85.21亿元；净利润14.41亿元，上年同期20.25亿元；每ADS盈利1.085元，上年同期1.436元。截至发稿，RLX科技盘前跌超5%。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"RLX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2263,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9949128963,"gmtCreate":1678445672252,"gmtModify":1678445676065,"author":{"id":"3576374040053118","authorId":"3576374040053118","name":"逐步涨","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b860305d59f5f83146cc00f33e44b75","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576374040053118","idStr":"3576374040053118"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[财迷]&nbsp;","listText":"[财迷]&nbsp;","text":"[财迷]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9949128963","repostId":"1120393556","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":559,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9949121774,"gmtCreate":1678445654198,"gmtModify":1678445658250,"author":{"id":"3576374040053118","authorId":"3576374040053118","name":"逐步涨","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b860305d59f5f83146cc00f33e44b75","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576374040053118","idStr":"3576374040053118"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[财迷]&nbsp;","listText":"[财迷]&nbsp;","text":"[财迷]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9949121774","repostId":"1115404762","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":689,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9949121411,"gmtCreate":1678445641333,"gmtModify":1678445646329,"author":{"id":"3576374040053118","authorId":"3576374040053118","name":"逐步涨","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b860305d59f5f83146cc00f33e44b75","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576374040053118","idStr":"3576374040053118"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[财迷]&nbsp;","listText":"[财迷]&nbsp;","text":"[财迷]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9949121411","repostId":"1168280839","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":524,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9940488707,"gmtCreate":1678111798309,"gmtModify":1678111803164,"author":{"id":"3576374040053118","authorId":"3576374040053118","name":"逐步涨","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b860305d59f5f83146cc00f33e44b75","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576374040053118","idStr":"3576374040053118"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[财迷]&nbsp;","listText":"[财迷]&nbsp;","text":"[财迷]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9940488707","repostId":"1181851551","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1181851551","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1678108195,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1181851551?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-03-06 21:09","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"The Australian people will also enjoy the \"10 billion subsidy\"! Pinduoduo: Officially entered Australia and New Zealand","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1181851551","media":"e公司","summary":"拼多多出海又有新进展。据最新消息，拼多多跨境电商业务将于3月13日正式进入澳大利亚、新西兰，持续推动中国制造业直连澳洲以及全球市场。（图源：图虫创意）机构指出，在国内流量红利见顶的背景下，电商出海将是","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Pinduoduo has made new progress in going overseas. According to the latest news, Pinduoduo's cross-border e-commerce business will officially enter Australia and New Zealand on March 13th, and continue to promote the direct connection of Chinese manufacturing industry to Australia and the global market.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/34eca09949932e48ce79d75d75940bf6\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"557\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>(Source: Tuchong Creative)</p><p>The agency pointed out that in the context of domestic traffic dividends peaking, e-commerce going overseas will be an important second growth curve for domestic e-commerce platforms.</p><p>Although there are still big differences in the short-term valuation challenges brought about by the market's investment in e-commerce going overseas, based on the advantages of existing domestic supply chains and the replication of mature models, the long-term profitability of overseas platforms still has high visibility.</p><p><b>Landing in the Australian market</b></p><p><b>In September last year, Pinduoduo officially launched TEMU, a cross-border e-commerce platform, in North America.</b>Since its launch, TEMU has achieved full coverage of domestic manufacturing categories, and has successively promoted tens of thousands of manufacturing companies such as clothing, digital, home appliances, bags, outdoor, accessories, toys, and stationery to successfully go overseas.</p><p>At present, hot-selling products such as women's clothing and small household appliances on the TEMU platform have achieved daily sales of 10,000 pieces of single products, and daily sales of more than 30,000 pieces of single store.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e31947a66d0903ca9d3aad77cb79e6bf\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"539\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>In addition, TEMU has also been deeply loved by overseas consumers since its launch. As of February 23, 2023, TEMU has dominated the App Store shopping list and Google Play shopping list for 69 days and 114 days respectively, with more than 40 million new downloads, becoming a new platform for China's manufacturing industry to directly connect overseas consumers. New channels.</p><p>\"In order to help China's manufacturing industry sell all over the world in one stop, after TEMU officially landed in Australia, the domestic manufacturing products that have been launched in the North American market will also enter the Australian market simultaneously.\" The relevant person in charge of Pinduoduo's cross-border e-commerce business said that during the preparation of the Australian market, Pinduoduo will also continue to fully open to brand merchants, small and medium-sized enterprises and source factories in the domestic manufacturing industry, and provide preferential policies of zero commission and zero deposit, as well as a package of support policies such as flow support and resource subsidies.</p><p>According to the aforementioned person in charge, in order to better serve enterprises and businesses, Pinduoduo's cross-border e-commerce will provide a full range of infrastructure services to manufacturing enterprises going overseas, including domestic and foreign warehousing, cross-border logistics and after-sales service, etc., so as to open up a \"full link\" cross-border channel for manufacturing enterprises.</p><p>At the same time, Pinduoduo's cross-border e-commerce will also provide integrated overseas solutions for overseas enterprises, including language and culture, product standards, intellectual property services, legal aid, trade arbitration, etc., to safeguard the legitimate rights and interests of Chinese manufacturing enterprises.</p><p><b>E-commerce overseas battle is in full swing</b></p><p>As the traffic dividend of the domestic e-commerce industry gradually peaks, endogenous growth slows down, and superimposed on the policy support proposed by the Central Economic Conference to \"encourage platform companies to show their talents in international competition\", going overseas will become an important second for major e-commerce companies at present. growth curve.</p><p><b>In fact, since last year, e-commerce has been in full swing, and Pinduoduo, SHEIN, Alibaba, and TikTok have increased their overseas e-commerce layout. The first round of major domestic Internet companies going overseas roughly began in 2016. Byte's TikTok detonated the world. After Alibaba invested in Lazada, it continued to increase its capital in Southeast Asia. Starting from 2022, other Internet companies such as Pinduoduo, JD.com, TikTok, and Kuaishou will also significantly accelerate the layout of overseas e-commerce business.</b></p><p>Since the beginning of this year, the global economic and trade situation has become extremely severe. Weakening external demand and declining orders have become the main contradictions in China's foreign trade. A series of policies have also been introduced across the country to support foreign trade enterprises in grasping orders and expanding markets. After officially launching the cross-border e-commerce business last year, Pinduoduo tailored the \"2022 Duoduo Overseas Support Plan\" for domestic manufacturing companies.</p><p>On March 16th, the \"2022 Duoduo Overseas Support Plan\" will enter Huzhou Zhili, the capital of children's wear in China. Under the guidance of Huzhou Bureau of Commerce, Huzhou E-commerce Promotion Association, Deqing E-commerce Association and Xiangyu Group, a Fortune 500 state-owned enterprise, will jointly hold the \"Huzhou Zhili Children's Wear Special Investment Promotion Fair\" to provide integrated overseas solutions for local clothing enterprises, businesses and factories.</p><p>\"Starting from March this year, the special team of Duoduo's overseas support plan will successively go deep into 100 domestic high-quality industrial belts such as Guangdong, Fujian, Zhejiang, Jiangsu, Shandong, Hebei, Anhui, Shaanxi, Sichuan, and Hubei to comprehensively promote manufacturing enterprises to expand the market overseas, accelerate digital transformation and upgrading, and better participate in international competition.\" said the above-mentioned person in charge.</p><p>Against the background of the continuation of the global online consumption trend and overseas inflation, cost-effective products and high-quality supply chains are still the core advantages of my country's cross-border e-commerce exports.</p><p>CITIC Securities pointed out that with strong policy support and a complete supporting service system, China's cross-border e-commerce market share is expected to continue to grow. In 2024, the scale of my country's cross-border e-commerce market is expected to reach 2.95 trillion. In the global e-commerce market (Except China) is expected to increase from 8.6% in 2021 to 13.1%. Based on the successful practice of mature e-commerce models in China, we are optimistic about the capability output of domestic leading platforms based on their own advantages and the potential valuation increment brought to the company.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"LHCJ1","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The Australian people will also enjoy the \"10 billion subsidy\"! Pinduoduo: Officially entered Australia and New Zealand</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe Australian people will also enjoy the \"10 billion subsidy\"! Pinduoduo: Officially entered Australia and New Zealand\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">e公司</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2023-03-06 21:09</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Pinduoduo has made new progress in going overseas. According to the latest news, Pinduoduo's cross-border e-commerce business will officially enter Australia and New Zealand on March 13th, and continue to promote the direct connection of Chinese manufacturing industry to Australia and the global market.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/34eca09949932e48ce79d75d75940bf6\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"557\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>(Source: Tuchong Creative)</p><p>The agency pointed out that in the context of domestic traffic dividends peaking, e-commerce going overseas will be an important second growth curve for domestic e-commerce platforms.</p><p>Although there are still big differences in the short-term valuation challenges brought about by the market's investment in e-commerce going overseas, based on the advantages of existing domestic supply chains and the replication of mature models, the long-term profitability of overseas platforms still has high visibility.</p><p><b>Landing in the Australian market</b></p><p><b>In September last year, Pinduoduo officially launched TEMU, a cross-border e-commerce platform, in North America.</b>Since its launch, TEMU has achieved full coverage of domestic manufacturing categories, and has successively promoted tens of thousands of manufacturing companies such as clothing, digital, home appliances, bags, outdoor, accessories, toys, and stationery to successfully go overseas.</p><p>At present, hot-selling products such as women's clothing and small household appliances on the TEMU platform have achieved daily sales of 10,000 pieces of single products, and daily sales of more than 30,000 pieces of single store.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e31947a66d0903ca9d3aad77cb79e6bf\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"539\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>In addition, TEMU has also been deeply loved by overseas consumers since its launch. As of February 23, 2023, TEMU has dominated the App Store shopping list and Google Play shopping list for 69 days and 114 days respectively, with more than 40 million new downloads, becoming a new platform for China's manufacturing industry to directly connect overseas consumers. New channels.</p><p>\"In order to help China's manufacturing industry sell all over the world in one stop, after TEMU officially landed in Australia, the domestic manufacturing products that have been launched in the North American market will also enter the Australian market simultaneously.\" The relevant person in charge of Pinduoduo's cross-border e-commerce business said that during the preparation of the Australian market, Pinduoduo will also continue to fully open to brand merchants, small and medium-sized enterprises and source factories in the domestic manufacturing industry, and provide preferential policies of zero commission and zero deposit, as well as a package of support policies such as flow support and resource subsidies.</p><p>According to the aforementioned person in charge, in order to better serve enterprises and businesses, Pinduoduo's cross-border e-commerce will provide a full range of infrastructure services to manufacturing enterprises going overseas, including domestic and foreign warehousing, cross-border logistics and after-sales service, etc., so as to open up a \"full link\" cross-border channel for manufacturing enterprises.</p><p>At the same time, Pinduoduo's cross-border e-commerce will also provide integrated overseas solutions for overseas enterprises, including language and culture, product standards, intellectual property services, legal aid, trade arbitration, etc., to safeguard the legitimate rights and interests of Chinese manufacturing enterprises.</p><p><b>E-commerce overseas battle is in full swing</b></p><p>As the traffic dividend of the domestic e-commerce industry gradually peaks, endogenous growth slows down, and superimposed on the policy support proposed by the Central Economic Conference to \"encourage platform companies to show their talents in international competition\", going overseas will become an important second for major e-commerce companies at present. growth curve.</p><p><b>In fact, since last year, e-commerce has been in full swing, and Pinduoduo, SHEIN, Alibaba, and TikTok have increased their overseas e-commerce layout. The first round of major domestic Internet companies going overseas roughly began in 2016. Byte's TikTok detonated the world. After Alibaba invested in Lazada, it continued to increase its capital in Southeast Asia. Starting from 2022, other Internet companies such as Pinduoduo, JD.com, TikTok, and Kuaishou will also significantly accelerate the layout of overseas e-commerce business.</b></p><p>Since the beginning of this year, the global economic and trade situation has become extremely severe. Weakening external demand and declining orders have become the main contradictions in China's foreign trade. A series of policies have also been introduced across the country to support foreign trade enterprises in grasping orders and expanding markets. After officially launching the cross-border e-commerce business last year, Pinduoduo tailored the \"2022 Duoduo Overseas Support Plan\" for domestic manufacturing companies.</p><p>On March 16th, the \"2022 Duoduo Overseas Support Plan\" will enter Huzhou Zhili, the capital of children's wear in China. Under the guidance of Huzhou Bureau of Commerce, Huzhou E-commerce Promotion Association, Deqing E-commerce Association and Xiangyu Group, a Fortune 500 state-owned enterprise, will jointly hold the \"Huzhou Zhili Children's Wear Special Investment Promotion Fair\" to provide integrated overseas solutions for local clothing enterprises, businesses and factories.</p><p>\"Starting from March this year, the special team of Duoduo's overseas support plan will successively go deep into 100 domestic high-quality industrial belts such as Guangdong, Fujian, Zhejiang, Jiangsu, Shandong, Hebei, Anhui, Shaanxi, Sichuan, and Hubei to comprehensively promote manufacturing enterprises to expand the market overseas, accelerate digital transformation and upgrading, and better participate in international competition.\" said the above-mentioned person in charge.</p><p>Against the background of the continuation of the global online consumption trend and overseas inflation, cost-effective products and high-quality supply chains are still the core advantages of my country's cross-border e-commerce exports.</p><p>CITIC Securities pointed out that with strong policy support and a complete supporting service system, China's cross-border e-commerce market share is expected to continue to grow. In 2024, the scale of my country's cross-border e-commerce market is expected to reach 2.95 trillion. In the global e-commerce market (Except China) is expected to increase from 8.6% in 2021 to 13.1%. Based on the successful practice of mature e-commerce models in China, we are optimistic about the capability output of domestic leading platforms based on their own advantages and the potential valuation increment brought to the company.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/IdJzlCb4iu5HtkKXYoxwPQ\">e公司</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/34eca09949932e48ce79d75d75940bf6","relate_stocks":{"PDD":"拼多多"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/IdJzlCb4iu5HtkKXYoxwPQ","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1181851551","content_text":"拼多多出海又有新进展。据最新消息，拼多多跨境电商业务将于3月13日正式进入澳大利亚、新西兰，持续推动中国制造业直连澳洲以及全球市场。（图源：图虫创意）机构指出，在国内流量红利见顶的背景下，电商出海将是国内电商平台重要的第二增长曲线。尽管市场对电商出海的投入所带来短期的估值挑战仍存较大分歧，但基于现有国内供应链优势及成熟模式的复制，出海平台长期的盈利能力仍有较高能见度。登陆澳洲市场去年9月，拼多多正式在北美地区上线跨境电商平台TEMU。自上线至今，TEMU已经实现对国内制造业品类的全覆盖，先后推动服装、数码、家电、箱包、户外、配饰、玩具、文具等上万家制造业企业成功出海。目前，TEMU平台上的女装、小家电等热销产品已经实现单品日销10000件，单店日销超过3万单。此外，TEMU自上线之后也深受海外消费者的喜爱。截至2023年2月23日，TEMU在App Store购物榜、Google Play购物榜中分别霸榜69天、114天，新增下载量超过4000万，成为中国制造业直连海外消费者的新平台、新渠道。“为了助力中国制造业一站销全球，在TEMU正式登陆澳洲后，已在北美市场上线的国内制造业产品，也将同步进入澳洲市场。”拼多多跨境电商业务相关负责人表示，在筹备澳洲市场期间，拼多多也将继续向国内制造业的品牌商家、中小企业、源头工厂全面开放，并对入驻的商家提供0佣金、0保证金的优惠政策，以及流量支持、资源补贴等一揽子扶持政策。前述负责人介绍，为更好服务企业和商家，拼多多跨境电商将对出海的制造业企业提供全方位的基础设施服务，包括国内外仓储、跨境物流以及售后服务等，为制造企业打通“全链路”的跨境通道。同时，拼多多跨境电商还将对出海企业提供一体化的出海解决方案，包括语言文化、产品标准、知产服务、法律援助、贸易仲裁等，维护中国制造企业的正当合法权益。电商出海激战正酣随着国内电商行业的流量红利逐渐触顶，内生增长趋缓，叠加中央经济会议提出“鼓励平台企业在国际竞争中大显身手”的政策支持，出海将成为各大电商企业当下重要的第二增长曲线。事实上，去年以来电商出海激战正酣，拼多多、SHEIN、阿里、TikTok加码海外电商布局。国内主要互联网公司第一轮出海大致始于2016年，字节旗下TikTok引爆全球，阿里巴巴投资Lazada后不断增资布局东南亚。2022年起，拼多多、京东、TikTok和快手等其他互联网公司也明显加速海外电商业务布局。今年以来，全球经贸形势变得极其严峻，外需走弱、订单下降成为我国外贸当前的主要矛盾。全国各地也相继出台一系列政策，支持外贸企业抓订单、拓市场。去年正式上线跨境电商业务后，拼多多为国内的制造业企业量身定做“2022多多出海扶持计划”。3月16日，“2022多多出海扶持计划”将走进中国童装之都湖州织里，并在湖州商务局的指导下，联合湖州市电子商务促进会、德清电子商务协会以及世界500强国企象屿集团共同举办“湖州织里童装出海专场招商会”，为当地的服装企业、商家、工厂提供一体化出海方案，推动“湖州童装”直连全球市场，助力“中国童装之都”迈向“世界童装之都”。“今年3月份开始，多多出海扶持计划的专项团队将先后深入广东、福建、浙江、江苏、山东、河北、安徽、陕西、四川、湖北等国内100个优质产业带，全面推动制造业企业出海拓市场，加快数字化转型升级，更好地参与国际竞争。”上述负责人表示。在全球消费线上化趋势延续以及海外通胀背景下，高性价比产品和优质供应链仍然是我国跨境电商出口的核心优势。中信证券指出，在政策大力支持以及配套服务体系完备的情况下，中国跨境电商市场份额有望持续增长，2024年我国跨境电商市场规模有望达2.95万亿，在全球电商市场（除中国）占比有望由2021年的8.6%提升至13.1%。基于成熟电商模式在国内的成功实践，看好国内头部平台根据自身优势进行的能力输出以及为公司带来的潜在估值增量。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"PDD":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":622,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9940488470,"gmtCreate":1678111781990,"gmtModify":1678111785925,"author":{"id":"3576374040053118","authorId":"3576374040053118","name":"逐步涨","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b860305d59f5f83146cc00f33e44b75","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576374040053118","idStr":"3576374040053118"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[财迷]&nbsp;","listText":"[财迷]&nbsp;","text":"[财迷]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9940488470","repostId":"2317124522","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2317124522","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1678108809,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2317124522?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-03-06 21:20","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"The era of \"blind buying of US stocks\" has come to an end, and Wall Street is looking for better investment products","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2317124522","media":"第一财经 ","summary":"过去十多年，华尔街一直信奉的“TINA”(There Is No Alternative）理念——即除了股票别无其他投资选择——正在成为过去式，“盲买”美股的时代已然落幕。自2008年全球金融危机以来","content":"<p><div>Over the past decade or so, Wall Street's \"There Is No Alternative\" philosophy of \"There Is No Alternative\" is becoming a thing of the past, and the era of \"blind buying\" U.S. stocks has come to an end. Since the global financial crisis of 2008, when central banks have implemented a quantitative easing to escape the economic downturn, Treasury Bond yields have fallen to the bottom, and Treasury Bond yields in Japanese and most European countries have entered negative territory. However, the situation turned around last year. In 2022,...</p><p><a href=\"https://www.yicai.com/news/101693830.html\">Web link</a></div></p>","source":"dyvj","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The era of \"blind buying of US stocks\" has come to an end, and Wall Street is looking for better investment products</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe era of \"blind buying of US stocks\" has come to an end, and Wall Street is looking for better investment products\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">第一财经 </strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2023-03-06 21:20</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><div>Over the past decade or so, Wall Street's \"There Is No Alternative\" philosophy of \"There Is No Alternative\" is becoming a thing of the past, and the era of \"blind buying\" U.S. stocks has come to an end. Since the global financial crisis of 2008, when central banks have implemented a quantitative easing to escape the economic downturn, Treasury Bond yields have fallen to the bottom, and Treasury Bond yields in Japanese and most European countries have entered negative territory. However, the situation turned around last year. In 2022,...</p><p><a href=\"https://www.yicai.com/news/101693830.html\">Web link</a></div></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://www.yicai.com/news/101693830.html\">第一财经 </a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/845db2f5c021b0317a272807b57f963e","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.yicai.com/news/101693830.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2317124522","content_text":"过去十多年，华尔街一直信奉的“TINA”(There Is No Alternative）理念——即除了股票别无其他投资选择——正在成为过去式，“盲买”美股的时代已然落幕。自2008年全球金融危机以来，各国央行为摆脱经济低迷推行量化宽松，国债收益率跌至谷底，日本和欧洲大部分国家的国债收益率进入负值区域，其间，以美股为代表的股票成为资金寻求丰厚回报的绝佳标的。不过，形势于去年发生扭转。2022年，各国央行以50年未见的同步程度相继加息，随之而来的是全球股市巨震，国债收益率飙升至十多年高位。“盲买”美股时代结束渣打中国财富管理部首席投资策略师王昕杰在接受采访时表示：“通胀高企迫使全球主要央行采取强硬态度提高资金成本，‘TINA’策略所依赖的低利率环境就此结束。此前，该策略盛行的背后逻辑在于，央行为刺激经济增长而创造出宽松条件，名义和实际利率接近零水平甚至为负值，投资者在固收资产中无法获得期望回报，只能转投股票，即便股票估值越来越高，投资者也别无选择。”美股表现是“TINA”策略的最好证明。据统计，2009～2021年这13年间，按全年表现计，标普500指数仅在2015年和2018年出现小幅下跌，跌幅分别为0.7%和6.2%，2011年该股指平收，其他年份则是全线上扬，其中，除2016年之外，其余年份全部实现两位数涨幅，且不乏势头较猛的年份，例如2009年标普500指数大涨23.5%，2013年美股劲升29.6%，2019年和2021年涨幅分别为28.9%和26.9%。中航信托宏观策略总监吴照银表示：“2009～2021年期间，美股确实一路呈现上行态势。权益资产价格连续上涨，一方面归功于长时间的低利率，令股票等风险资产估值不断拔高；另一方面，美国经济景气、企业盈利强劲也是重要驱动力。货币政策和经济基本面两者都给投资者提供了良好预期。”不过，上述两项因素均在去年发生逆转。“美国连续加息之下，美债收益率连创新高，短期债券收益率升幅更大，市场无风险收益率保持颇高水平，这对风险资产价格形成持续压制。同时，美债收益率倒挂明显指向美国经济和企业盈利预期下降，这种情况下，股票自然不涨反跌，如果美国利率不能趋势性下行，并且较长时间维持在低利率状态，美国权益资产收益难以向好。”吴照银说。2日，十年期美债收益率突破4%，创去年11月以来的新高，两年期美债收益率触及4.9%，刷新2007年以来的高位，6个月期美国国债的收益率已从去年年初时的接近零水平攀升至当前的5.129%，不少券商正在提供收益率超过4%的货币市场基金。相形之下，据股票市场研究机构Birinyi Associates的数据，标普500指数成份股的平均股息收益率仅为1.71%。如此一来，华尔街大行纷纷放弃“TINA”策略，高盛转向“TARA”（There Are Reasonable Alternatives），相信市场上存在合理的股票替代品，德意志银行提出“TAPAs”（There Are Plenty of Alternatives）一词，意为还有很多股票替代品。那么，2023年应该采取何种策略？今年以来，美国经济数据强于预期，令市场猜测衰退可能延迟到来，不过王昕杰认为，一年内出现大幅衰退的可能性更大。“就业市场持续紧张，通胀上升可能会鼓励美联储和欧洲央行推动更高的长期利率。在此背景下，我们认为今年以稳健投资策略来构建基础配置将是审慎之举，即保护收益率，配置提供长期价值的亚洲资产，巩固投资以应对更多意外，以及透过另类策略在传统资产之外进行扩张。”寻找更优投资品种美国银行2月进行的一项调查显示，基金经理在股票上的配置比长期平均水平低出约2.2个标准差，与此同时，债券、新兴市场、现金及大宗商品在投资组合中的比例开始高于往常。王昕杰表示，债券将成2023年的最佳投资标的之一，偏好投资级债券。“相对股票和现金，我们超配债券，包括政府债和优质公司债。随着美联储和欧洲央行的终端利率预期跃升至约5.5%和4%，债券似乎再现收益机会，美国投资级公司债的收益率已超过5%，亚洲美元债的收益率接近6.5%。”他进一步表示，尽管当前的高收益率提供了更直接的获利机会，但投资者仍应配置那些能够提供长期价值的资产来加以平衡。“一旦美联储货币政策转向，美元将由升转贬，最终应该会支持包括亚洲股市在内的新兴市场资产。”未来6～12个月，渣打继续看好亚洲（除日本）股票价值，其中超配中国股票。“中国经济数据持续改善，疫后需求复苏推动宏观数据反弹，全国两会带来更多稳增长的政策信号，我们建议投资者同时关注离岸和在岸中国股票。”王昕杰说。吴照银认为，市场风险偏好整体趋于下降，投资者的资产配置逐渐转向避险资产。“短线来看，在当前利率仍在上升的情况下，投资者倾向于选择类货币资产；至今年底和明年，随着利率开始下行，债券会成为投资者青睐的品种。”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":554,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9940488570,"gmtCreate":1678111772391,"gmtModify":1678111775853,"author":{"id":"3576374040053118","authorId":"3576374040053118","name":"逐步涨","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b860305d59f5f83146cc00f33e44b75","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576374040053118","idStr":"3576374040053118"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[财迷]&nbsp;","listText":"[财迷]&nbsp;","text":"[财迷]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9940488570","repostId":"2317124522","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2317124522","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1678108809,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2317124522?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-03-06 21:20","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"The era of \"blind buying of US stocks\" has come to an end, and Wall Street is looking for better investment products","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2317124522","media":"第一财经 ","summary":"过去十多年，华尔街一直信奉的“TINA”(There Is No Alternative）理念——即除了股票别无其他投资选择——正在成为过去式，“盲买”美股的时代已然落幕。自2008年全球金融危机以来","content":"<p><div>Over the past decade or so, Wall Street's \"There Is No Alternative\" philosophy of \"There Is No Alternative\" is becoming a thing of the past, and the era of \"blind buying\" U.S. stocks has come to an end. Since the global financial crisis of 2008, when central banks have implemented a quantitative easing to escape the economic downturn, Treasury Bond yields have fallen to the bottom, and Treasury Bond yields in Japanese and most European countries have entered negative territory. However, the situation turned around last year. In 2022,...</p><p><a href=\"https://www.yicai.com/news/101693830.html\">Web link</a></div></p>","source":"dyvj","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The era of \"blind buying of US stocks\" has come to an end, and Wall Street is looking for better investment products</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe era of \"blind buying of US stocks\" has come to an end, and Wall Street is looking for better investment products\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">第一财经 </strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2023-03-06 21:20</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><div>Over the past decade or so, Wall Street's \"There Is No Alternative\" philosophy of \"There Is No Alternative\" is becoming a thing of the past, and the era of \"blind buying\" U.S. stocks has come to an end. Since the global financial crisis of 2008, when central banks have implemented a quantitative easing to escape the economic downturn, Treasury Bond yields have fallen to the bottom, and Treasury Bond yields in Japanese and most European countries have entered negative territory. However, the situation turned around last year. In 2022,...</p><p><a href=\"https://www.yicai.com/news/101693830.html\">Web link</a></div></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://www.yicai.com/news/101693830.html\">第一财经 </a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/845db2f5c021b0317a272807b57f963e","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.yicai.com/news/101693830.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2317124522","content_text":"过去十多年，华尔街一直信奉的“TINA”(There Is No Alternative）理念——即除了股票别无其他投资选择——正在成为过去式，“盲买”美股的时代已然落幕。自2008年全球金融危机以来，各国央行为摆脱经济低迷推行量化宽松，国债收益率跌至谷底，日本和欧洲大部分国家的国债收益率进入负值区域，其间，以美股为代表的股票成为资金寻求丰厚回报的绝佳标的。不过，形势于去年发生扭转。2022年，各国央行以50年未见的同步程度相继加息，随之而来的是全球股市巨震，国债收益率飙升至十多年高位。“盲买”美股时代结束渣打中国财富管理部首席投资策略师王昕杰在接受采访时表示：“通胀高企迫使全球主要央行采取强硬态度提高资金成本，‘TINA’策略所依赖的低利率环境就此结束。此前，该策略盛行的背后逻辑在于，央行为刺激经济增长而创造出宽松条件，名义和实际利率接近零水平甚至为负值，投资者在固收资产中无法获得期望回报，只能转投股票，即便股票估值越来越高，投资者也别无选择。”美股表现是“TINA”策略的最好证明。据统计，2009～2021年这13年间，按全年表现计，标普500指数仅在2015年和2018年出现小幅下跌，跌幅分别为0.7%和6.2%，2011年该股指平收，其他年份则是全线上扬，其中，除2016年之外，其余年份全部实现两位数涨幅，且不乏势头较猛的年份，例如2009年标普500指数大涨23.5%，2013年美股劲升29.6%，2019年和2021年涨幅分别为28.9%和26.9%。中航信托宏观策略总监吴照银表示：“2009～2021年期间，美股确实一路呈现上行态势。权益资产价格连续上涨，一方面归功于长时间的低利率，令股票等风险资产估值不断拔高；另一方面，美国经济景气、企业盈利强劲也是重要驱动力。货币政策和经济基本面两者都给投资者提供了良好预期。”不过，上述两项因素均在去年发生逆转。“美国连续加息之下，美债收益率连创新高，短期债券收益率升幅更大，市场无风险收益率保持颇高水平，这对风险资产价格形成持续压制。同时，美债收益率倒挂明显指向美国经济和企业盈利预期下降，这种情况下，股票自然不涨反跌，如果美国利率不能趋势性下行，并且较长时间维持在低利率状态，美国权益资产收益难以向好。”吴照银说。2日，十年期美债收益率突破4%，创去年11月以来的新高，两年期美债收益率触及4.9%，刷新2007年以来的高位，6个月期美国国债的收益率已从去年年初时的接近零水平攀升至当前的5.129%，不少券商正在提供收益率超过4%的货币市场基金。相形之下，据股票市场研究机构Birinyi Associates的数据，标普500指数成份股的平均股息收益率仅为1.71%。如此一来，华尔街大行纷纷放弃“TINA”策略，高盛转向“TARA”（There Are Reasonable Alternatives），相信市场上存在合理的股票替代品，德意志银行提出“TAPAs”（There Are Plenty of Alternatives）一词，意为还有很多股票替代品。那么，2023年应该采取何种策略？今年以来，美国经济数据强于预期，令市场猜测衰退可能延迟到来，不过王昕杰认为，一年内出现大幅衰退的可能性更大。“就业市场持续紧张，通胀上升可能会鼓励美联储和欧洲央行推动更高的长期利率。在此背景下，我们认为今年以稳健投资策略来构建基础配置将是审慎之举，即保护收益率，配置提供长期价值的亚洲资产，巩固投资以应对更多意外，以及透过另类策略在传统资产之外进行扩张。”寻找更优投资品种美国银行2月进行的一项调查显示，基金经理在股票上的配置比长期平均水平低出约2.2个标准差，与此同时，债券、新兴市场、现金及大宗商品在投资组合中的比例开始高于往常。王昕杰表示，债券将成2023年的最佳投资标的之一，偏好投资级债券。“相对股票和现金，我们超配债券，包括政府债和优质公司债。随着美联储和欧洲央行的终端利率预期跃升至约5.5%和4%，债券似乎再现收益机会，美国投资级公司债的收益率已超过5%，亚洲美元债的收益率接近6.5%。”他进一步表示，尽管当前的高收益率提供了更直接的获利机会，但投资者仍应配置那些能够提供长期价值的资产来加以平衡。“一旦美联储货币政策转向，美元将由升转贬，最终应该会支持包括亚洲股市在内的新兴市场资产。”未来6～12个月，渣打继续看好亚洲（除日本）股票价值，其中超配中国股票。“中国经济数据持续改善，疫后需求复苏推动宏观数据反弹，全国两会带来更多稳增长的政策信号，我们建议投资者同时关注离岸和在岸中国股票。”王昕杰说。吴照银认为，市场风险偏好整体趋于下降，投资者的资产配置逐渐转向避险资产。“短线来看，在当前利率仍在上升的情况下，投资者倾向于选择类货币资产；至今年底和明年，随着利率开始下行，债券会成为投资者青睐的品种。”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":861,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9940488269,"gmtCreate":1678111753151,"gmtModify":1678111756573,"author":{"id":"3576374040053118","authorId":"3576374040053118","name":"逐步涨","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b860305d59f5f83146cc00f33e44b75","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576374040053118","idStr":"3576374040053118"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[财迷]&nbsp;","listText":"[财迷]&nbsp;","text":"[财迷]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9940488269","repostId":"2317178905","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2317178905","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1678110241,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2317178905?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-03-06 21:44","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Morgan Stanley is idling more again: U.S. stocks will rebound in the near future","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2317178905","media":"智通财经","summary":"摩根士丹利首席策略师威尔逊(Michael Wilson)表示，在业绩不利因素加剧之前，美股可能还有上涨空间。威尔逊周一表示，“股市上周经受住了关键的支撑考验，这表明本轮熊市反弹还没有准备好结束。”威","content":"<p><html><head></head><body><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a>Chief strategist Michael Wilson said U.S. stocks may still have room to rise before performance headwinds intensify. \"Stocks withstood a critical test of support last week, suggesting this bear market rally isn't ready to end,\" Wilson said Monday, correctly predicting the stock market sell-off and last October's rally. He noted that the S&P 500 is holding above its 200-day moving average and could rise further if the dollar and interest rates continue to pull back after last Friday's decline.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1072f3a311cda661a6aac98d8766c954\" tg-width=\"576\" tg-height=\"328\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>While Wilson sees the next resistance for the S&P 500 at 4,150, about 2.5% above last Friday's close, he sees it as a short-term turning point. As fundamentals continue to deteriorate, particularly when it comes to earnings, the market is set to fall further in the medium term, he wrote.</p><p>Despite the surge, Mr Wilson said, \"we don't think that counters the extremely low risk-reward of many stocks right now, given that valuations and earnings estimates are still too high.\" He expects margins to be \"significantly worse than current consensus expectations.\"</p><p>Wilson noted that the gap between earnings and cash flow was the largest in 25 years because of excess inventory and capital costs that haven't been reflected.</p><p>The S&P 500 is up 5.4% so far this year, and the tech benchmark Nasdaq 100 has surged more than 12%, despite hawkish rhetoric from Fed officials amid economic recovery and still strong inflation and employment data.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/US10Y.BOND\">US 10-Year Treasury Bond Yield</a>Soaring to nearly 4.2% last week, it pulled back last Friday, spurring stocks higher.</p><p>Wilson's cautious approach gained<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a>Approved by the strategist team, JPMorgan's strategists headed by Mislav Matejka believe that investors are now \"more willing to chase the market\" and suggest using the current strength to reduce risk exposure, because tightening monetary policy will have a lagging impact on the stock market.</p><p>Matejka is also particularly pessimistic about U.S. stocks, saying on Monday that relative valuations and earnings of U.S. stocks are near all-time highs, and they may \"continue to undermine the strong momentum of the past decade.\"</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"stock_zhitongcaijing","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Morgan Stanley is idling more again: U.S. stocks will rebound in the near future</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMorgan Stanley is idling more again: U.S. stocks will rebound in the near future\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">智通财经</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2023-03-06 21:44</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a>Chief strategist Michael Wilson said U.S. stocks may still have room to rise before performance headwinds intensify. \"Stocks withstood a critical test of support last week, suggesting this bear market rally isn't ready to end,\" Wilson said Monday, correctly predicting the stock market sell-off and last October's rally. He noted that the S&P 500 is holding above its 200-day moving average and could rise further if the dollar and interest rates continue to pull back after last Friday's decline.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1072f3a311cda661a6aac98d8766c954\" tg-width=\"576\" tg-height=\"328\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>While Wilson sees the next resistance for the S&P 500 at 4,150, about 2.5% above last Friday's close, he sees it as a short-term turning point. As fundamentals continue to deteriorate, particularly when it comes to earnings, the market is set to fall further in the medium term, he wrote.</p><p>Despite the surge, Mr Wilson said, \"we don't think that counters the extremely low risk-reward of many stocks right now, given that valuations and earnings estimates are still too high.\" He expects margins to be \"significantly worse than current consensus expectations.\"</p><p>Wilson noted that the gap between earnings and cash flow was the largest in 25 years because of excess inventory and capital costs that haven't been reflected.</p><p>The S&P 500 is up 5.4% so far this year, and the tech benchmark Nasdaq 100 has surged more than 12%, despite hawkish rhetoric from Fed officials amid economic recovery and still strong inflation and employment data.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/US10Y.BOND\">US 10-Year Treasury Bond Yield</a>Soaring to nearly 4.2% last week, it pulled back last Friday, spurring stocks higher.</p><p>Wilson's cautious approach gained<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a>Approved by the strategist team, JPMorgan's strategists headed by Mislav Matejka believe that investors are now \"more willing to chase the market\" and suggest using the current strength to reduce risk exposure, because tightening monetary policy will have a lagging impact on the stock market.</p><p>Matejka is also particularly pessimistic about U.S. stocks, saying on Monday that relative valuations and earnings of U.S. stocks are near all-time highs, and they may \"continue to undermine the strong momentum of the past decade.\"</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/887537.html\">智通财经</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/55eb327f580527889cf30bafa92692ae","relate_stocks":{"BK4504":"桥水持仓",".DJI":"道琼斯","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","LU0971096721.USD":"富达环球金融服务 A","LU0320765646.SGD":"FTIF - Franklin Income A MDIS SGD-H1","BK4127":"投资银行业与经纪业","LU0106831901.USD":"贝莱德世界金融基金A2","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","LU1668664300.SGD":"Blackrock World Financials A2 SGD-H","MS":"摩根士丹利","LU1162221912.USD":"FRANKLIN INCOME \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4588":"碎股","LU1074936037.SGD":"JPMorgan Funds - US Value A (acc) SGD","IE00BKVL7J92.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - US Equity Sustainability Leaders A Acc USD","LU0098860793.USD":"FRANKLIN INCOME \"A\" INC","IE00BZ1G4Q59.USD":"LEGG MASON CLEARBRIDGE US EQUITY SUSTAINABILITY LEADER \"A\"(USD) INC (A)","LU1363072403.SGD":"Fidelity Global Financial Services A-ACC-SGD","LU1989772840.SGD":"CPR Invest - Climate Action A2 Acc SGD-H","BK4581":"高盛持仓","LU1989772923.USD":"CPR Invest - Climate Action A2 Acc USD-H"},"source_url":"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/887537.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2317178905","content_text":"摩根士丹利首席策略师威尔逊(Michael Wilson)表示，在业绩不利因素加剧之前，美股可能还有上涨空间。威尔逊周一表示，“股市上周经受住了关键的支撑考验，这表明本轮熊市反弹还没有准备好结束。”威尔逊正确地预测了股市的抛售和去年10月份的反弹。他指出，标准普尔500指数保持在200日移动均线上方，如果美元和利率在上周五下跌后继续回落，可能会进一步上涨。虽然威尔逊认为标准普尔500指数的下一个阻力位在4150点，比上周五的收盘价高出约2.5%，但他认为这是一个短期转折点。他写道，随着基本面继续恶化，特别是在盈利方面，市场中期还会进一步下跌。威尔逊称，尽管股市大涨，但\"我们认为，鉴于估值和获利预估仍过高，我们认为这无法反驳许多股票目前极低的风险回报。\"他预计利润率将\"大大逊于目前的普遍预期\"。威尔逊指出，财报收益和现金流之间的差距是25年来最大的，原因是库存过剩和资本成本尚未反映出来。标准普尔500指数今年以来累计上涨5.4%，科技股基准纳斯达克100指数飙升逾12%，尽管美联储官员在经济复苏、通胀和就业数据依然强劲的情况下发表了强硬言论。美国10年期国债收益率上周飙升至近4.2%，上周五回落，刺激股市走高。威尔逊的谨慎态度获得了摩根大通策略师团队的认可，小摩以Mislav Matejka为首的策略师认为，投资者现在“更愿意追逐市场”，建议利用目前的强势来削减风险敞口，因为货币政策收紧将对股市产生滞后影响。Matejka也特别不看好美国股市，他在周一表示，美国股市的相对估值和收益接近历史高点，而它们可能“继续削弱过去10年的强劲势头”。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,"MS":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":547,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9940488636,"gmtCreate":1678111740925,"gmtModify":1678111744674,"author":{"id":"3576374040053118","authorId":"3576374040053118","name":"逐步涨","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b860305d59f5f83146cc00f33e44b75","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576374040053118","idStr":"3576374040053118"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[财迷]&nbsp;","listText":"[财迷]&nbsp;","text":"[财迷]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9940488636","repostId":"2317178905","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2317178905","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1678110241,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2317178905?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-03-06 21:44","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Morgan Stanley is idling more again: U.S. stocks will rebound in the near future","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2317178905","media":"智通财经","summary":"摩根士丹利首席策略师威尔逊(Michael Wilson)表示，在业绩不利因素加剧之前，美股可能还有上涨空间。威尔逊周一表示，“股市上周经受住了关键的支撑考验，这表明本轮熊市反弹还没有准备好结束。”威","content":"<p><html><head></head><body><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a>Chief strategist Michael Wilson said U.S. stocks may still have room to rise before performance headwinds intensify. \"Stocks withstood a critical test of support last week, suggesting this bear market rally isn't ready to end,\" Wilson said Monday, correctly predicting the stock market sell-off and last October's rally. He noted that the S&P 500 is holding above its 200-day moving average and could rise further if the dollar and interest rates continue to pull back after last Friday's decline.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1072f3a311cda661a6aac98d8766c954\" tg-width=\"576\" tg-height=\"328\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>While Wilson sees the next resistance for the S&P 500 at 4,150, about 2.5% above last Friday's close, he sees it as a short-term turning point. As fundamentals continue to deteriorate, particularly when it comes to earnings, the market is set to fall further in the medium term, he wrote.</p><p>Despite the surge, Mr Wilson said, \"we don't think that counters the extremely low risk-reward of many stocks right now, given that valuations and earnings estimates are still too high.\" He expects margins to be \"significantly worse than current consensus expectations.\"</p><p>Wilson noted that the gap between earnings and cash flow was the largest in 25 years because of excess inventory and capital costs that haven't been reflected.</p><p>The S&P 500 is up 5.4% so far this year, and the tech benchmark Nasdaq 100 has surged more than 12%, despite hawkish rhetoric from Fed officials amid economic recovery and still strong inflation and employment data.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/US10Y.BOND\">US 10-Year Treasury Bond Yield</a>Soaring to nearly 4.2% last week, it pulled back last Friday, spurring stocks higher.</p><p>Wilson's cautious approach gained<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a>Approved by the strategist team, JPMorgan's strategists headed by Mislav Matejka believe that investors are now \"more willing to chase the market\" and suggest using the current strength to reduce risk exposure, because tightening monetary policy will have a lagging impact on the stock market.</p><p>Matejka is also particularly pessimistic about U.S. stocks, saying on Monday that relative valuations and earnings of U.S. stocks are near all-time highs, and they may \"continue to undermine the strong momentum of the past decade.\"</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"stock_zhitongcaijing","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Morgan Stanley is idling more again: U.S. stocks will rebound in the near future</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMorgan Stanley is idling more again: U.S. stocks will rebound in the near future\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">智通财经</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2023-03-06 21:44</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a>Chief strategist Michael Wilson said U.S. stocks may still have room to rise before performance headwinds intensify. \"Stocks withstood a critical test of support last week, suggesting this bear market rally isn't ready to end,\" Wilson said Monday, correctly predicting the stock market sell-off and last October's rally. He noted that the S&P 500 is holding above its 200-day moving average and could rise further if the dollar and interest rates continue to pull back after last Friday's decline.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1072f3a311cda661a6aac98d8766c954\" tg-width=\"576\" tg-height=\"328\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>While Wilson sees the next resistance for the S&P 500 at 4,150, about 2.5% above last Friday's close, he sees it as a short-term turning point. As fundamentals continue to deteriorate, particularly when it comes to earnings, the market is set to fall further in the medium term, he wrote.</p><p>Despite the surge, Mr Wilson said, \"we don't think that counters the extremely low risk-reward of many stocks right now, given that valuations and earnings estimates are still too high.\" He expects margins to be \"significantly worse than current consensus expectations.\"</p><p>Wilson noted that the gap between earnings and cash flow was the largest in 25 years because of excess inventory and capital costs that haven't been reflected.</p><p>The S&P 500 is up 5.4% so far this year, and the tech benchmark Nasdaq 100 has surged more than 12%, despite hawkish rhetoric from Fed officials amid economic recovery and still strong inflation and employment data.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/US10Y.BOND\">US 10-Year Treasury Bond Yield</a>Soaring to nearly 4.2% last week, it pulled back last Friday, spurring stocks higher.</p><p>Wilson's cautious approach gained<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a>Approved by the strategist team, JPMorgan's strategists headed by Mislav Matejka believe that investors are now \"more willing to chase the market\" and suggest using the current strength to reduce risk exposure, because tightening monetary policy will have a lagging impact on the stock market.</p><p>Matejka is also particularly pessimistic about U.S. stocks, saying on Monday that relative valuations and earnings of U.S. stocks are near all-time highs, and they may \"continue to undermine the strong momentum of the past decade.\"</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/887537.html\">智通财经</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/55eb327f580527889cf30bafa92692ae","relate_stocks":{"BK4504":"桥水持仓",".DJI":"道琼斯","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","LU0971096721.USD":"富达环球金融服务 A","LU0320765646.SGD":"FTIF - Franklin Income A MDIS SGD-H1","BK4127":"投资银行业与经纪业","LU0106831901.USD":"贝莱德世界金融基金A2","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","LU1668664300.SGD":"Blackrock World Financials A2 SGD-H","MS":"摩根士丹利","LU1162221912.USD":"FRANKLIN INCOME \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4588":"碎股","LU1074936037.SGD":"JPMorgan Funds - US Value A (acc) SGD","IE00BKVL7J92.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - US Equity Sustainability Leaders A Acc USD","LU0098860793.USD":"FRANKLIN INCOME \"A\" INC","IE00BZ1G4Q59.USD":"LEGG MASON CLEARBRIDGE US EQUITY SUSTAINABILITY LEADER \"A\"(USD) INC (A)","LU1363072403.SGD":"Fidelity Global Financial Services A-ACC-SGD","LU1989772840.SGD":"CPR Invest - Climate Action A2 Acc SGD-H","BK4581":"高盛持仓","LU1989772923.USD":"CPR Invest - Climate Action A2 Acc USD-H"},"source_url":"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/887537.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2317178905","content_text":"摩根士丹利首席策略师威尔逊(Michael Wilson)表示，在业绩不利因素加剧之前，美股可能还有上涨空间。威尔逊周一表示，“股市上周经受住了关键的支撑考验，这表明本轮熊市反弹还没有准备好结束。”威尔逊正确地预测了股市的抛售和去年10月份的反弹。他指出，标准普尔500指数保持在200日移动均线上方，如果美元和利率在上周五下跌后继续回落，可能会进一步上涨。虽然威尔逊认为标准普尔500指数的下一个阻力位在4150点，比上周五的收盘价高出约2.5%，但他认为这是一个短期转折点。他写道，随着基本面继续恶化，特别是在盈利方面，市场中期还会进一步下跌。威尔逊称，尽管股市大涨，但\"我们认为，鉴于估值和获利预估仍过高，我们认为这无法反驳许多股票目前极低的风险回报。\"他预计利润率将\"大大逊于目前的普遍预期\"。威尔逊指出，财报收益和现金流之间的差距是25年来最大的，原因是库存过剩和资本成本尚未反映出来。标准普尔500指数今年以来累计上涨5.4%，科技股基准纳斯达克100指数飙升逾12%，尽管美联储官员在经济复苏、通胀和就业数据依然强劲的情况下发表了强硬言论。美国10年期国债收益率上周飙升至近4.2%，上周五回落，刺激股市走高。威尔逊的谨慎态度获得了摩根大通策略师团队的认可，小摩以Mislav Matejka为首的策略师认为，投资者现在“更愿意追逐市场”，建议利用目前的强势来削减风险敞口，因为货币政策收紧将对股市产生滞后影响。Matejka也特别不看好美国股市，他在周一表示，美国股市的相对估值和收益接近历史高点，而它们可能“继续削弱过去10年的强劲势头”。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,"MS":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":529,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}