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2023-05-11

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@HueFin News: Is Paypal Stock Plunge A Red Flag? PYPL Stock Prediction

2023-05-02

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The "eagle heart" of the Federal Reserve may be difficult to shake! Another big stick to market expectations?

2023-03-28

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Learning from History: How Far Is the U.S. Economy From a Recession After the Banking Crisis?

2023-03-24

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2023-03-13

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Preview this week | U.S. CPI data hits heavily! Adobe, XPeng Motors and More Post Earnings

2023-03-13

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2023-03-12

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News","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/525ab01de57ae269d24770433c37e0ed","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"10000000000010714","idStr":"10000000000010714"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"\n \n \n  Is Paypal Stock Plunge A Red Flag? PYPL Stock Prediction\n \n","listText":"Is Paypal Stock Plunge A Red Flag? PYPL Stock Prediction","text":"Is Paypal Stock Plunge A Red Flag? PYPL Stock Prediction","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9970040121","isVote":1,"tweetType":2,"object":{"id":"08721a20d2444035a1fa2d4e33830030","tweetId":"9970040121","title":"Is Paypal Stock Plunge A Red Flag? PYPL Stock Prediction","videoUrl":"http://v.tigerbbs.com/168374727464114cb42dfb4a3fc8968bd91d578f44794.mp4","poster":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3cc89fa2536ae91b61ecbfdc44633e01","shareLink":"http://v.tigerbbs.com/168374727464114cb42dfb4a3fc8968bd91d578f44794.mp4"},"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3564,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9947849083,"gmtCreate":1682980776843,"gmtModify":1682980780328,"author":{"id":"3582255225539540","authorId":"3582255225539540","name":"maxcheng","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/e349509cb3a5b7ead6c5501a0aff9b47","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582255225539540","idStr":"3582255225539540"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9947849083","repostId":"2332624680","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2332624680","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1682936298,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2332624680?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-05-01 18:18","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"The \"eagle heart\" of the Federal Reserve may be difficult to shake! Another big stick to market expectations?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2332624680","media":"金十数据","summary":"期货市场几乎完全消化了美联储将在本月加息25个基点的预期，投机者纷纷出手押注美元走软，美联储今年年尾的降息预期真的“稳”了吗？","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Identifying with the market is equivalent to admitting mistakes! Is the expectation that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates at the end of this year really \"stable\"? As the Fed's biggest interest rate tightening campaign in decades draws to a close, the painful lessons of past policy mistakes will seriously affect the pace of policymakers' follow-up.</p><p><strong>While the Fed is pushing rate hike at the fastest pace in decades, how long Federal Funds rate will stay high is a question that even they can hardly answer themselves</strong>。 No one knows how long it will take to contain sticky services inflation, or how quickly the credit crunch will unravel demand.</p><p><strong>Futures markets have almost fully digested the 25 basis points that the Federal Reserve will rate hike this month</strong>And brought Federal Funds rate to expectations in the range of 5% to 5.25%. At present, the market is more concerned about:<strong>Whether Powell and his colleagues will signal a pause on rate hike.</strong></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fc56221eb7e0d4e03280c68cd825c113\" tg-width=\"1920\" tg-height=\"1080\"/></p><p><strong>Speculators have taken a bet?</strong></p><p>Because the Fed is expected to pause after this week's rate hike,<strong>Investors are betting on an impending weakness in the dollar.</strong></p><p>According to data from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), as of April 25th,<strong>Hedge funds and other big speculators increased their net bearish positions on the dollar against major currencies to more than 70,000, the highest level since June 2021</strong>。 According to the foreign media's measurement of the exchange rate of the US dollar against major trading partners,<strong>The dollar will erase all gains since the Federal Reserve began raising its Federal Funds rate last March</strong>。</p><p>As the European Central Bank and the Bank of England are expected to take more aggressive action in the coming months,<strong>Speculators are eyeing the possibility of extending the rally for the euro and pound</strong>。<strong>The euro and sterling have emerged as one of the top three major developed currencies performing this year.</strong><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NMR\">Nomura Holdings</a>Sydney-based interest rate strategist Andrew Ticehurst said:</p><p>\"We remain bullish on the euro, as the market generally believes that the Fed will stage a\" last dance \"and the ECB has more work to do. It is believed that the ECB and the Bank of England will outpace the Fed's subsequent rate hike, especially as the U.S. economic outlook is shadowed by recession fears and concerns about the banking sector and the debt ceiling.\"<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a5366d937cbbd752016f07b9ca2f987f\" tg-width=\"2000\" tg-height=\"1143\"/></p><p><strong>The market's expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut is wrong again?</strong></p><p>Includes<strong><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>Economists, including the Fed, lowered their forecast for another rate hike in June</strong>Jonathan Pingle, chief U.S. economist at UBS, expected the Fed to signal a pause, but added,<strong>If the data calls for it, they will rate hike again</strong>。 He noted that,<strong>The last rate hike of the Fed's last three rate hike cycles has been accompanied by a \"disclaimer\" that the next move could be another rate hike rather than a rate cut.</strong>Because inflation remains well above target levels, while<strong>A definitive end to rate hike could upend public expectations of the Fed's pledge to maintain stable prices</strong>。</p><p>Moreover, the Fed's ideas may be inspired by its long battle with inflation from the late 1960s to the early 1980s, and strive to avoid a repeat of what Wharton professor Jeremy Siegel once called \"the greatest failure of postwar US macroeconomic policy.\"</p><p>During that time,<strong>Fed Fails to Stop Wage Price Spiral</strong>, after several attempts to raise and lower interest rates, Federal Funds rate even peaked at 20%, and experienced four recessions before the Fed finally got things under control.</p><p>Emily Roland, co-chief Investment strategist at John Hancock Investment Management, said of the Fed:</p><p>\"We expect policymakers to probably stop and look at the geometry of the impact of all the rate hike they've done so far, but they certainly won't agree with the bond market or say they won't cut rates in the second half of the year, that's basically the equivalent of acknowledging that you've made a mistake and will have to go 'back' on interest rates.\"<strong>Risky assets could rebound if Powell's or Fed's statements suggest a rate hike pause after May</strong>。 Roland said that if Powell made a dovish statement, it would be a surprise and could provide another boost for the market. But Roland also said there is still a need for caution. She said:</p><p>\"I think we should be wary of chasing gains, because the market is showing little sign of investors being bearish at the moment: volatility is low, the VIX is below 20, and the expected P/E of the S&P 500 is 18 times. Be careful not to add too much risk to the portfolio when macroeconomic conditions are completely different from market conditions.\"</body></html></p>","source":"xnew_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The \"eagle heart\" of the Federal Reserve may be difficult to shake! Another big stick to market expectations?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe \"eagle heart\" of the Federal Reserve may be difficult to shake! Another big stick to market expectations?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">金十数据</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2023-05-01 18:18</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Identifying with the market is equivalent to admitting mistakes! Is the expectation that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates at the end of this year really \"stable\"? As the Fed's biggest interest rate tightening campaign in decades draws to a close, the painful lessons of past policy mistakes will seriously affect the pace of policymakers' follow-up.</p><p><strong>While the Fed is pushing rate hike at the fastest pace in decades, how long Federal Funds rate will stay high is a question that even they can hardly answer themselves</strong>。 No one knows how long it will take to contain sticky services inflation, or how quickly the credit crunch will unravel demand.</p><p><strong>Futures markets have almost fully digested the 25 basis points that the Federal Reserve will rate hike this month</strong>And brought Federal Funds rate to expectations in the range of 5% to 5.25%. At present, the market is more concerned about:<strong>Whether Powell and his colleagues will signal a pause on rate hike.</strong></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fc56221eb7e0d4e03280c68cd825c113\" tg-width=\"1920\" tg-height=\"1080\"/></p><p><strong>Speculators have taken a bet?</strong></p><p>Because the Fed is expected to pause after this week's rate hike,<strong>Investors are betting on an impending weakness in the dollar.</strong></p><p>According to data from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), as of April 25th,<strong>Hedge funds and other big speculators increased their net bearish positions on the dollar against major currencies to more than 70,000, the highest level since June 2021</strong>。 According to the foreign media's measurement of the exchange rate of the US dollar against major trading partners,<strong>The dollar will erase all gains since the Federal Reserve began raising its Federal Funds rate last March</strong>。</p><p>As the European Central Bank and the Bank of England are expected to take more aggressive action in the coming months,<strong>Speculators are eyeing the possibility of extending the rally for the euro and pound</strong>。<strong>The euro and sterling have emerged as one of the top three major developed currencies performing this year.</strong><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NMR\">Nomura Holdings</a>Sydney-based interest rate strategist Andrew Ticehurst said:</p><p>\"We remain bullish on the euro, as the market generally believes that the Fed will stage a\" last dance \"and the ECB has more work to do. It is believed that the ECB and the Bank of England will outpace the Fed's subsequent rate hike, especially as the U.S. economic outlook is shadowed by recession fears and concerns about the banking sector and the debt ceiling.\"<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a5366d937cbbd752016f07b9ca2f987f\" tg-width=\"2000\" tg-height=\"1143\"/></p><p><strong>The market's expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut is wrong again?</strong></p><p>Includes<strong><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>Economists, including the Fed, lowered their forecast for another rate hike in June</strong>Jonathan Pingle, chief U.S. economist at UBS, expected the Fed to signal a pause, but added,<strong>If the data calls for it, they will rate hike again</strong>。 He noted that,<strong>The last rate hike of the Fed's last three rate hike cycles has been accompanied by a \"disclaimer\" that the next move could be another rate hike rather than a rate cut.</strong>Because inflation remains well above target levels, while<strong>A definitive end to rate hike could upend public expectations of the Fed's pledge to maintain stable prices</strong>。</p><p>Moreover, the Fed's ideas may be inspired by its long battle with inflation from the late 1960s to the early 1980s, and strive to avoid a repeat of what Wharton professor Jeremy Siegel once called \"the greatest failure of postwar US macroeconomic policy.\"</p><p>During that time,<strong>Fed Fails to Stop Wage Price Spiral</strong>, after several attempts to raise and lower interest rates, Federal Funds rate even peaked at 20%, and experienced four recessions before the Fed finally got things under control.</p><p>Emily Roland, co-chief Investment strategist at John Hancock Investment Management, said of the Fed:</p><p>\"We expect policymakers to probably stop and look at the geometry of the impact of all the rate hike they've done so far, but they certainly won't agree with the bond market or say they won't cut rates in the second half of the year, that's basically the equivalent of acknowledging that you've made a mistake and will have to go 'back' on interest rates.\"<strong>Risky assets could rebound if Powell's or Fed's statements suggest a rate hike pause after May</strong>。 Roland said that if Powell made a dovish statement, it would be a surprise and could provide another boost for the market. But Roland also said there is still a need for caution. She said:</p><p>\"I think we should be wary of chasing gains, because the market is showing little sign of investors being bearish at the moment: volatility is low, the VIX is below 20, and the expected P/E of the S&P 500 is 18 times. Be careful not to add too much risk to the portfolio when macroeconomic conditions are completely different from market conditions.\"</body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://xnews.jin10.com/webapp/details.html?id=111557&type=news&data_type=0\">金十数据</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6a5657d24ae68fd59066d5458a132c55","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF博时","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares","BK4588":"碎股","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","BK4504":"桥水持仓","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","BK4581":"高盛持仓","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","OEX":"标普100","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","SPY":"标普500ETF","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念",".DJI":"道琼斯","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares","DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓"},"source_url":"https://xnews.jin10.com/webapp/details.html?id=111557&type=news&data_type=0","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2332624680","content_text":"认同市场就等于承认错误！美联储将于今年年尾的降息预期真的“稳”了吗？随着美联储几十年来最大幅度的利率紧缩运动接近尾声，过去政策错误所导致的惨痛教训将严重影响政策制定者的后续步伐。尽管美联储以几十年来最快的速度推加息，但联邦基金利率会在高位停留多久是一个连他们自己都很难回答的问题。没人知道要多久才能控制高粘性的服务业通胀，也没人知道信贷紧缩会以多快的速度瓦解需求。期货市场几乎完全消化了美联储将在本月加息25个基点，并使联邦基金利率至5%至5.25%区间的预期。目前市场比较关注的是：鲍威尔及其同事是否会发出暂停加息的信号。投机者已出手押注？因为预计美联储在本周加息后暂停，投资者纷纷押注美元即将走软。美国商品期货交易委员会（CFTC）的数据显示，截至4月25日，对冲基金和其他大型投机者将美元兑主要货币的净看空头寸增至逾7万份，为2021年6月以来的最高水平。根据外媒对美元兑主要贸易伙伴汇率的衡量，美元将抹去自美联储去年3月开始提高联邦基金利率以来的所有涨幅。由于欧洲央行和英国央行预计将在未来几个月采取更为激进的行动，投机者正关注欧元和英镑延续涨势的可能性。欧元和英镑已成为今年表现最好的三大主要发达国家货币之一。野村控股驻悉尼的利率策略师Andrew Ticehurst表示：“我们仍看好欧元，因市场普遍认为美联储将上演“最后一舞”，而欧洲央行还有更多工作要做。人们认为，欧洲央行和英国央行的后续加息幅度将超过美联储，尤其是在美国经济前景笼罩在对衰退的担忧以及对银行业和债务上限的担忧阴影之下。”市场对美联储的降息预期又错？包括高盛在内的经济学家下调了美联储在6月再次加息的预期，瑞银首席美国经济学家Jonathan Pingle预计，美联储将发出暂停的信号，但他也补充说，如果数据需要，他们会再次加息。他指出，美联储过去三个加息周期的最后一次加息都附有“免责声明”，即下一步行动可能是再次加息而不是降息。因为通胀仍远高于目标水平，而明确结束加息可能会颠覆公众对美联储维持稳定物价承诺的预期。此外，美联储的想法可能会受到20世纪60年代末至80年代初其与通胀的长期斗争的启发，并努力避免重蹈沃顿商学院教授杰里米-西格尔（Jeremy Siegel）曾称为 “战后美国宏观经济政策的最大失败”的覆辙。在那段时间里，美联储未能阻止工资价格的螺旋式上升，经过几次提高和降低利率的尝试，联邦基金利率甚至达到了20%的峰值，并经历四次经济衰退，美联储最终才将事情控制住。约翰-汉考克投资管理公司（John Hancock Investment Management）的联合首席投资策略师Emily Roland在谈到美联储时说：“我们预计会政策制定者可能会停下来看看他们到目前为止所做的所有加息的影响几何，但他们肯定不会同意债券市场的意见，或者说他们不会在下半年降息，那基本上相当于承认你已经犯了一个错误，将不得不在利率上走‘回头路’。”如果鲍威尔或美联储的声明暗示5月后将暂停加息，风险资产可能会反弹。Roland称，如果鲍威尔发表了鸽派的表态，这将令人意外，可能为市场提供另一股推动力。但Roland也表示，仍有保持谨慎的必要。她说：“我认为要警惕追涨，因为目前市场几乎没有显示出投资者看空的迹象：波动性很低，VIX指数低于20，标普500指数的预期市盈率为18倍。在宏观经济情况与市场情况完全不同的情况下，注意不要给投资组合增加太多风险。”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.6,"513500":0.6,"PSQ":0.6,".IXIC":1,"MNQmain":0.6,"SH":0.6,"DOG":0.6,"OEX":0.6,"UPRO":0.6,"SDOW":0.6,"SPXU":0.6,"NQmain":0.6,"DDM":0.6,"OEF":0.6,"UDOW":0.6,"IVV":0.6,"DXD":0.6,"QQQ":0.6,"TQQQ":0.6,"SSO":0.6,"SQQQ":0.6,"ESmain":0.6,"QID":0.6,"DJX":0.6,"SDS":0.6,".SPX":0.6,"SPY":1,".DJI":1,"QLD":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3623,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9941398029,"gmtCreate":1679957631662,"gmtModify":1679957635558,"author":{"id":"3582255225539540","authorId":"3582255225539540","name":"maxcheng","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/e349509cb3a5b7ead6c5501a0aff9b47","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582255225539540","idStr":"3582255225539540"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"O","listText":"O","text":"O","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9941398029","repostId":"1188760696","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1188760696","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"追踪全球财经热点，精选影响您财富的资讯，投资理财必备神器！","home_visible":1,"media_name":"华尔街见闻","id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"pubTimestamp":1679929853,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1188760696?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-03-27 23:10","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Learning from History: How Far Is the U.S. Economy From a Recession After the Banking Crisis?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1188760696","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"分析师表示，如果信用额度被取消，企业就必须裁员、削减开支，并采取其他必要行动。随着消费者削减开支，需求减少进一步影响到企业。这样的恶性循环将不断重复，直到经济陷入衰退。银行业危机很可能是经济形势恶化的","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>If the line of credit is removed, companies will have to cut jobs, cut expenses and take other necessary actions, analysts said. As consumers cut back on spending, reduced demand further affects businesses. Such an a vicious circle will repeat itself until the economy slips into recession. The banking crisis is likely to be the first warning sign of a worsening economic situation.</p><p>On March 25, Lance Roberts, an analyst at Real Investment Advice, wrote on the website that historically, the banking crisis was the first piece of evidence of problems as the Federal Reserve tightened monetary policy.</p><p>Last week, after including<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SIVB\">Silicon Valley Bank</a>Government agencies took action after several banks went bankrupt. The Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. FDIC, the Treasury Department and the Federal Reserve have released a term loan program for banks, the BTFP, offering $25 billion in loans as guarantee to protect uninsured depositors from the bankruptcy of Silicon Valley Bank.</p><p>Subsequently, 11 major large banks provided $30 billion in uninsured deposits to First Republic Bank. Roberts Think that,<b>Without guarantees from the Federal Reserve and Treasury, these deposits would not have appeared.</b></p><p>Banks then quickly took advantage of the lending program, and borrowing from the Federal Reserve surged by $152 billion, the largest borrowing in a week since the financial crisis. That number has soared to nearly $300 billion since last week.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8ae18323ab7e3883a5cdec1f1ae1be3e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"361\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Since then,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UBS\">UBS</a>Acquired with the help of the government<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CS\">Credit Suisse</a>The Federal Reserve reopened its dollar swap line to provide liquidity for foreign banks.</p><p>On March 19, the Bank of Canada, the Bank of England, the Bank of Japan, the European Central Bank, the Federal Reserve and the Swiss National Bank announced a coordinated action to strengthen the liquidity supply through a long-term dollar liquidity swap arrangement. In order to improve the effectiveness of swap lines in providing dollar funds, central banks currently providing dollar business have agreed to increase the frequency of seven-day maturity operations from weekly to daily. These daily operations began on March 20 and will continue until at least the end of April.</p><p>Roberts denotes,<b>Historically, further monetary easing measures — from interest rate cuts, \"quantitative easing\" to other liquidity operations — have followed once the Fed has opened up its dollar swap line. Of course, this is usually a reaction to a banking crisis, a credit-related event, a recession, or a combination of all three.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ce74955cbf82fc6ed9ad12f5c6ab8660\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"373\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>While the knee-jerk reaction to the reversal of monetary tightening is to buy risky assets, investors may want to be cautious because recessions tend to follow banking crises, Roberts said.</p><p><b>Banking crisis leads to recession</b></p><p>One obvious outcome of the banking crisis, Roberts noted, was the tightening of lending standards. Given that credit is the lifeblood of the economy, whether it is consumer or corporate credit, tightening lending standards has reduced economic mobility. When banks tighten lending standards for all types of businesses, a liquidity crunch will eventually lead to a recession. Many businesses rely on lines of credit or other measures to bridge the gap between producing a product or service and earning revenue.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f1970f0a20094a02f94bd0635eb78e52\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"393\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Roberts argues that if the line of credit is removed, businesses will have to lay off workers, cut expenses, and take other necessary actions. The economic drag intensifies as consumers cut spending, with reduced demand further affecting businesses. Such an a vicious circle will repeat itself until the economy slips into recession.</b></p><p>He added that there is a liquidity crunch in all forms of credit, from mortgages and auto loans to consumer credit.<b>The banking crisis is likely to be the first warning sign of a worsening economic situation.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4bedc7e814291ec1e88f1ee6c08db190\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"388\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>He also said that the last time there was such a sharp tightening of lending standards was during the economic stagnation caused by the pandemic. Many investors hope that the Fed's shift to monetary easing in response to recession risks will benefit stocks. But those hopes are likely to be lost, as a recession initially presents \"repricing risk\".</p><p><b>Recession poses repricing risk</b></p><p>Roberts went on to say that the optimistic expectation is that the bear market will end when the Fed makes a policy pivot. While there is nothing wrong with this expectation, it may not happen as quickly as bulls expect. When the Federal Reserve began cutting interest rates in history, it wasn't the end of a bear market for stocks, it was the beginning.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/89a6101db72600ac0fa5efee7c29b839\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"343\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>He noted that it was noteworthy that,<b>Most bear markets come after the Fed's policy pivot.</b>This is because policy shifts are often accompanied by a perception that something is going wrong economically (i.e., a recession) or financially (i.e., a credit crisis). When that happens and the Fed starts to act,<b>The market will reprice a sluggish economy and lower earnings growth rates.</b></p><p>Data from Real Investment Advice shows that current forward estimates of earnings remain well above the long-term growth trend, while earnings typically fall below the long-term growth trend during a recession or other financial or economic event.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/de7815326ff7c005a5a5671eeb36a517\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"358\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>A better way to understand this, says Roberts, is to look at long-term exponential growth trends in earnings. Historically, earnings have grown approximately 6% from one peak earnings cycle to the next. During a recession, deviations above the long-term exponential growth trend are corrected. The peak growth rate of 6% comes from an annual economic growth rate of about 6%.<b>It can be concluded that annual earnings changes are highly correlated with economic growth.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/83f5d7f221e55be18e778f7b2d98aeff\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"385\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Given that earnings are a function of economic activity, current estimates for the end of the year are unsustainable if the economy contracts, he said. Therefore, this deviation from long-term growth is unsustainable in a recession environment.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3f6262ba11c997e5b6277d817b3b88db\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"361\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Roberts pointed out that,<b>Because valuations are assumptions of future earnings, asset prices must be repriced to counter earnings risk, especially during the banking crisis.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/adce27e3d79c15302590b01a071eaf8d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"346\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Investors face two certain things, Roberts concludes: One is that the Federal Reserve's rate hike has triggered a banking crisis that will end in a recession as lending contracts; Second, it will force the Fed to finally cut interest rates and restart the next \"quantitative easing\" plan. Therefore, when the Fed begins to cut interest rates for the first time, it begins to acknowledge a recession.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Learning from History: How Far Is the U.S. Economy From a Recession After the Banking Crisis?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nLearning from History: How Far Is the U.S. Economy From a Recession After the Banking Crisis?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1084101182\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">华尔街见闻 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2023-03-27 23:10</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>If the line of credit is removed, companies will have to cut jobs, cut expenses and take other necessary actions, analysts said. As consumers cut back on spending, reduced demand further affects businesses. Such an a vicious circle will repeat itself until the economy slips into recession. The banking crisis is likely to be the first warning sign of a worsening economic situation.</p><p>On March 25, Lance Roberts, an analyst at Real Investment Advice, wrote on the website that historically, the banking crisis was the first piece of evidence of problems as the Federal Reserve tightened monetary policy.</p><p>Last week, after including<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SIVB\">Silicon Valley Bank</a>Government agencies took action after several banks went bankrupt. The Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. FDIC, the Treasury Department and the Federal Reserve have released a term loan program for banks, the BTFP, offering $25 billion in loans as guarantee to protect uninsured depositors from the bankruptcy of Silicon Valley Bank.</p><p>Subsequently, 11 major large banks provided $30 billion in uninsured deposits to First Republic Bank. Roberts Think that,<b>Without guarantees from the Federal Reserve and Treasury, these deposits would not have appeared.</b></p><p>Banks then quickly took advantage of the lending program, and borrowing from the Federal Reserve surged by $152 billion, the largest borrowing in a week since the financial crisis. That number has soared to nearly $300 billion since last week.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8ae18323ab7e3883a5cdec1f1ae1be3e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"361\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Since then,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UBS\">UBS</a>Acquired with the help of the government<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CS\">Credit Suisse</a>The Federal Reserve reopened its dollar swap line to provide liquidity for foreign banks.</p><p>On March 19, the Bank of Canada, the Bank of England, the Bank of Japan, the European Central Bank, the Federal Reserve and the Swiss National Bank announced a coordinated action to strengthen the liquidity supply through a long-term dollar liquidity swap arrangement. In order to improve the effectiveness of swap lines in providing dollar funds, central banks currently providing dollar business have agreed to increase the frequency of seven-day maturity operations from weekly to daily. These daily operations began on March 20 and will continue until at least the end of April.</p><p>Roberts denotes,<b>Historically, further monetary easing measures — from interest rate cuts, \"quantitative easing\" to other liquidity operations — have followed once the Fed has opened up its dollar swap line. Of course, this is usually a reaction to a banking crisis, a credit-related event, a recession, or a combination of all three.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ce74955cbf82fc6ed9ad12f5c6ab8660\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"373\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>While the knee-jerk reaction to the reversal of monetary tightening is to buy risky assets, investors may want to be cautious because recessions tend to follow banking crises, Roberts said.</p><p><b>Banking crisis leads to recession</b></p><p>One obvious outcome of the banking crisis, Roberts noted, was the tightening of lending standards. Given that credit is the lifeblood of the economy, whether it is consumer or corporate credit, tightening lending standards has reduced economic mobility. When banks tighten lending standards for all types of businesses, a liquidity crunch will eventually lead to a recession. Many businesses rely on lines of credit or other measures to bridge the gap between producing a product or service and earning revenue.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f1970f0a20094a02f94bd0635eb78e52\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"393\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Roberts argues that if the line of credit is removed, businesses will have to lay off workers, cut expenses, and take other necessary actions. The economic drag intensifies as consumers cut spending, with reduced demand further affecting businesses. Such an a vicious circle will repeat itself until the economy slips into recession.</b></p><p>He added that there is a liquidity crunch in all forms of credit, from mortgages and auto loans to consumer credit.<b>The banking crisis is likely to be the first warning sign of a worsening economic situation.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4bedc7e814291ec1e88f1ee6c08db190\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"388\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>He also said that the last time there was such a sharp tightening of lending standards was during the economic stagnation caused by the pandemic. Many investors hope that the Fed's shift to monetary easing in response to recession risks will benefit stocks. But those hopes are likely to be lost, as a recession initially presents \"repricing risk\".</p><p><b>Recession poses repricing risk</b></p><p>Roberts went on to say that the optimistic expectation is that the bear market will end when the Fed makes a policy pivot. While there is nothing wrong with this expectation, it may not happen as quickly as bulls expect. When the Federal Reserve began cutting interest rates in history, it wasn't the end of a bear market for stocks, it was the beginning.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/89a6101db72600ac0fa5efee7c29b839\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"343\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>He noted that it was noteworthy that,<b>Most bear markets come after the Fed's policy pivot.</b>This is because policy shifts are often accompanied by a perception that something is going wrong economically (i.e., a recession) or financially (i.e., a credit crisis). When that happens and the Fed starts to act,<b>The market will reprice a sluggish economy and lower earnings growth rates.</b></p><p>Data from Real Investment Advice shows that current forward estimates of earnings remain well above the long-term growth trend, while earnings typically fall below the long-term growth trend during a recession or other financial or economic event.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/de7815326ff7c005a5a5671eeb36a517\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"358\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>A better way to understand this, says Roberts, is to look at long-term exponential growth trends in earnings. Historically, earnings have grown approximately 6% from one peak earnings cycle to the next. During a recession, deviations above the long-term exponential growth trend are corrected. The peak growth rate of 6% comes from an annual economic growth rate of about 6%.<b>It can be concluded that annual earnings changes are highly correlated with economic growth.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/83f5d7f221e55be18e778f7b2d98aeff\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"385\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Given that earnings are a function of economic activity, current estimates for the end of the year are unsustainable if the economy contracts, he said. Therefore, this deviation from long-term growth is unsustainable in a recession environment.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3f6262ba11c997e5b6277d817b3b88db\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"361\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Roberts pointed out that,<b>Because valuations are assumptions of future earnings, asset prices must be repriced to counter earnings risk, especially during the banking crisis.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/adce27e3d79c15302590b01a071eaf8d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"346\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Investors face two certain things, Roberts concludes: One is that the Federal Reserve's rate hike has triggered a banking crisis that will end in a recession as lending contracts; Second, it will force the Fed to finally cut interest rates and restart the next \"quantitative easing\" plan. Therefore, when the Fed begins to cut interest rates for the first time, it begins to acknowledge a recession.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/627bc890436e46f74a0fe8143398a725","relate_stocks":{"161121":"银行"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1188760696","content_text":"分析师表示，如果信用额度被取消，企业就必须裁员、削减开支，并采取其他必要行动。随着消费者削减开支，需求减少进一步影响到企业。这样的恶性循环将不断重复，直到经济陷入衰退。银行业危机很可能是经济形势恶化的第一个警告信号。3月25日，Real Investment Advice 的分析师 Lance Roberts 在网站上写道，从历史上看，随着美联储收紧货币政策，银行业危机是问题出现的第一项证据。上周，在包括硅谷银行在内的几家银行破产倒闭后，政府机构采取了行动。联邦存款保险公司FDIC、财政部和美联储发布了一项银行定期贷款计划BTFP，提供250亿美元贷款作为担保，以保护未投保的储户免受硅谷银行破产的影响。随后，11家主要大型银行向第一共和国银行提供了300亿美元的无保险存款。Roberts 认为，如果没有美联储和财政部的保证，是不会出现这些存款的。银行随后迅速利用了这一贷款计划，向美联储借贷的资金激增了1520亿美元，这是自金融危机以来一周内规模最大的借款。自上周以来，这一数字已飙升至近3000亿美元。自那以后，瑞银在政府的撮合下收购了瑞士信贷，美联储重新开放了美元互换额度，为外国银行提供流动性。3月19日，加拿大央行、英国央行、日本央行、欧洲央行、美联储和瑞士央行银行宣布了一项协调行动，通过长期美元流动性互换安排加强流动性供应。为了提高互换额度在提供美元资金方面的有效性，目前提供美元业务的央行已同意将7天到期操作的频率从每周增加到每天。这些日常操作从3月20日开始，将至少将持续到4月底。Roberts 表示，从历史上看，一旦美联储开放美元互换额度，进一步的货币宽松措施——从降息、“量化宽松”到其他流动性操作就会随之而来。当然，这通常是对银行危机、信贷相关事件、经济衰退的反应，或三者兼而有之。Roberts 表示，尽管对货币紧缩政策逆转的下意识反应是购买风险资产，但投资者可能希望保持谨慎，因为经济衰退往往会在银行业危机之后出现。银行业危机导致经济衰退Roberts 指出，银行业危机的一个明显结果就是贷款标准的收紧。鉴于信贷是经济的命脉，无论是消费者信贷还是企业信贷，贷款标准的收紧都减少了经济流动。当银行收紧对各类企业的贷款标准时，流动性紧缩最终会导致经济衰退。许多企业依靠信用额度或其他措施来弥补生产产品或服务与获得收入之间的差距。Roberts 认为，如果信用额度被取消，企业就必须裁员、削减开支，并采取其他必要的行动。随着消费者削减开支，经济拖累加剧，需求减少进一步影响到企业。这样的恶性循环将不断重复，直到经济陷入衰退。他补充称，目前从抵押贷款、汽车贷款到消费信贷，所有形式的信贷都在出现流动性的紧缩。银行业危机很可能是经济形势恶化的第一个警告信号。他还说，上一次贷款标准出现如此大幅度的紧缩还是在疫情导致的经济停滞期间。许多投资者希望，美联储转向放松货币政策以应对衰退风险，这将利好股市。但这些希望可能会落空，因为经济衰退最初会带来“重新定价风险”。经济衰退带来重新定价风险Roberts 继续表示，乐观的预期是，当美联储做出政策转向时，熊市将会结束。虽然这种预期没有错，但它可能不会像多头预期的那样迅速发生。当美联储在历史上开始降息时，这并不是股市熊市的结束，而是开始。他指出，值得注意的是，大多数熊市都出现在美联储的政策转向之后。这是因为政策转向通常伴随着一种认知，即某些东西在经济上（即经济衰退）或金融上（即信用危机）出现了问题。当这种情况发生，美联储开始采取行动时，市场会为低迷的经济和更低的盈利增长率重新定价。Real Investment Advice的数据显示，目前对盈利的远期估计仍远高于长期增长趋势，而在经济衰退或其他金融或经济事件期间，盈利通常会低于长期增长趋势。Roberts 称，理解这一点的更好的方法是观察收益的长期指数增长趋势。从历史上看，从一个峰值收益周期到下一个峰值收益周期，收益大约增长大约6%。在经济衰退期间，高于长期指数增长趋势的偏差会得到修正。6%的峰值增长率来自于大约6%的年度经济增长率。可以得出结论，年度收益变化与经济增长高度相关。他表示，鉴于收益是经济活动的函数，如果经济收缩，目前对年底的估计是不可持续的。因此在经济衰退环境下，这种偏离长期增长的趋势是不可持续的。Roberts 指出，由于估值是对未来收益的假设，因此资产价格必须重新定价以应对盈利风险，尤其是在银行业危机期间。Roberts 总结道，投资者面临着两件肯定的事情：一是美联储的加息引发了一场银行业危机，随着贷款收缩，这场危机将以衰退告终；二是这将迫使美联储最终降息并重启下一个“量化宽松”计划。因此，当美联储开启第一次降息，就是开始承认经济衰退。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161121":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3632,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9943496527,"gmtCreate":1679611770870,"gmtModify":1679611774616,"author":{"id":"3582255225539540","authorId":"3582255225539540","name":"maxcheng","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/e349509cb3a5b7ead6c5501a0aff9b47","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582255225539540","idStr":"3582255225539540"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"ok","listText":"ok","text":"ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9943496527","repostId":"1193417234","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2899,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9949675027,"gmtCreate":1678666901970,"gmtModify":1678672906818,"author":{"id":"3582255225539540","authorId":"3582255225539540","name":"maxcheng","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/e349509cb3a5b7ead6c5501a0aff9b47","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582255225539540","idStr":"3582255225539540"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"👍","listText":"👍","text":"👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9949675027","repostId":"1148015560","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1148015560","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1678662881,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1148015560?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-03-13 07:14","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Preview this week | U.S. CPI data hits heavily! Adobe, XPeng Motors and More Post Earnings","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1148015560","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"本周（3.13-3.17）重磅财经事件及数据如下：经济数据方面，本周将发布多个重要数据，其中美国未季调CPI年率、季调后CPI月率、截至3月10日当周API和EIA原油库存变动、截至3月11日当周初请","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>This week's (3.13-3.17) blockbuster financial events and data are as follows:</p><p>In terms of economic data, a number of important data will be released this week, among which the annual CPI rate not seasonally adjusted in the United States, the monthly CPI rate after seasonal adjustment, the changes of API and EIA crude oil inventories in the week ending March 10th, and the number of initial unemployment claims in the week ending March 11th should be paid attention to. In terms of financial events, IEA's monthly crude oil market report, the European Central Bank's interest rate decision, the monthly report on residential sales prices in 70 large and medium-sized cities in China, and Baidu's \"Wen Xin Yi Yan\" theme conference will all be released this week. In terms of financial reports, US stocks FedEx, Adobe, XPeng Automobile and Hong Kong stocks Ping An of China, Longfor Group, Li Ning and China Literature Group will announce their financial reports this week.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/618ec520caf78a2aaff48d97ddb5ad65\" tg-width=\"2096\" tg-height=\"1458\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><b>Monday, March 13th Keywords: Conference Board Employment Trend Index; Federal Reserve calls an emergency private meeting of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System; Ping An Good Doctor, Nuohui Health Financial Report</b></p><p>On Monday, in terms of economic data, investors can pay attention to the Conference Board Employment Trend Index.</p><p>In terms of financial events, the Federal Reserve will hold an emergency private meeting of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, with the agenda of evaluating and deciding on the upfront interest rate and discount rate charged by the Federal Reserve Bank.</p><p>In terms of financial report, Hong Kong stocks<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01833\">Ping An Good Doctor</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06606\">NovoHealth-B</a>Earnings will be released separately.</p><p><b>Tuesday, March 14 KEYWORDS: US CPI data, US NFIB Small Business Confidence Index</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/56a2a7b255ad5f7828401a91efafea29\" tg-width=\"949\" tg-height=\"523\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>On Tuesday, in terms of economic data, the market focused on a series of CPI data to be released in the United States, including the annual rate of CPI without seasonal adjustment and the monthly rate of CPI after seasonal adjustment.</p><p>At present, the market expects that the annual CPI rate of the United States in February will not be seasonally adjusted to 6%, slightly lower than the previous value of 6.4%. The monthly CPI rate of the United States in February was 0.4% after seasonal adjustment, which was also slightly lower than the previous value of 0.5%. According to the data released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 6.4% year-on-year in January. Excluding volatile energy and food prices, core CPI rose 5.6% year-over-year for the month, down from the previous value of 5.7%. Previously, economists expected the consumer price index to rise 6.2% year-on-year in January, while the core CPI rose 0.4% month-on-month and 5.5% year-on-year. The CPI data shows how consumers pay for goods and services. On March 14th, the United States will release the CPI data for February, and investors need to focus on it.<b>Wednesday, March 15th Keywords: U.S. API and EIA crude oil inventory changes during the week; U.S. February Retail Sales Monthly Rate; Bank of Japan January Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes; Ping An of China, ZTO Express Financial Report</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/61e78a458a0a285bc018d945b1f0e4e8\" tg-width=\"952\" tg-height=\"1173\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>On Wednesday, in terms of economic data, the United States will announce the changes of API and EIA crude oil inventories that week, which is expected to affect the trend of oil prices.</p><p>API crude oil inventories in the United States decreased by 3.835 million barrels in the week ending March 2, while analysts expected a decrease of 30,800 barrels, and the previous value increased by 6.203 million barrels. In the week of March 3, U.S. EIA crude oil inventories decreased by 1.694 million barrels, expected to increase by 1.6 million barrels, and the previous value increased by 1.166 million barrels. On March 15th, the United States will announce the changes of API and EIA crude oil inventories for the week ending March 10th, or continue to decrease. In terms of financial events, the IEA (International Energy Agency) will release the monthly crude oil market report, so investors need to pay close attention.</p><p>In terms of financial report, Hong Kong stocks<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02318\">Ping An of China</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02057\">ZTO Express-SW</a>Will report earnings.</p><p><b>Thursday, March 16th Keywords: U.S. jobless claims for the week; ECB Interest Rate Decision; Baidu's \"Wen Xin Yi Yan\" theme conference; Adobe, Shell, Li-Ning Earnings</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8cd0c2302aacd4f4202bd46f7cb53ade\" tg-width=\"952\" tg-height=\"1294\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>On Thursday, in terms of economic data, investors should pay close attention to the number of initial unemployment claims that week.</p><p>In terms of financial events, the European Central Bank will hold an interest rate decision.</p><p>On March 8th, local time, Visco, governor of the Italian central bank, said that he disapproved of the European Central Bank's continued rate hike and believed that its monetary policy should continue to be cautious. However, the market expects that the European Central Bank is likely to raise interest rates in March. Judging from the statements of the main officials of the European Central Bank at present, the European Central Bank is likely to continue its rate hike at the monetary policy meeting in March, and the rate hike of 50 basis points is already a high probability event. European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde recently told the media that core inflation in the euro zone will remain high in the short term, so it is increasingly likely that the European Central Bank will rate hike 50 basis points later this month. In addition, Baidu will hold a press conference with the theme of \"Wen Xin Yi Yan\".</p><p>Baidu plans to hold a press conference at 14: 00 on March 16th in Beijing headquarters, with the theme revolving around Wen Xinyiyan. Li Yanhong, founder, chairman and CEO of Baidu, and Wang Haifeng, chief technology officer of Baidu, will attend. In addition, the monthly report of residential sales prices in 70 large and medium-sized cities published by the National Bureau of Statistics should also be closely paid attention to.</p><p>In terms of financial reports, the world's largest creative design software manufacturer<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ADBE\">Adobe</a>The financial report will be announced after the U.S. stock market closes on March 15th,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BEKE\">Shell</a>Will report earnings before the U.S. stock market on March 16th.</p><p>In addition, Hong Kong stocks<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02331\">Li Ning</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00772\">China Literature Group</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03606\">Fuyao Glass</a>The financial report will also be announced on the same day.</p><p><b>Friday, March 17th Keywords: University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index; FedEx, XPeng Motors, Longfor Earnings</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/82c1948786b0c86f1a7c5cf88741b873\" tg-width=\"955\" tg-height=\"199\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>On Friday, in terms of economic data, the consumer confidence index of the University of Michigan in the United States will be released soon.</p><p>In terms of financial report, \"the barometer of the U.S. economy\"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FDX\">FedEx</a>Will release earnings after the market on March 16th, domestic new energy vehicle brands<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">XPeng Motors</a>Earnings will be released premarket on March 17th.</p><p>In addition, Hong Kong stocks<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00960\">LONGFOR GROUP</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01313\">China Resources Cement Holdings</a>The earnings report will also be released on the same day.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Preview this week | U.S. CPI data hits heavily! Adobe, XPeng Motors and More Post Earnings</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPreview this week | U.S. CPI data hits heavily! Adobe, XPeng Motors and More Post Earnings\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2023-03-13 07:14</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>This week's (3.13-3.17) blockbuster financial events and data are as follows:</p><p>In terms of economic data, a number of important data will be released this week, among which the annual CPI rate not seasonally adjusted in the United States, the monthly CPI rate after seasonal adjustment, the changes of API and EIA crude oil inventories in the week ending March 10th, and the number of initial unemployment claims in the week ending March 11th should be paid attention to. In terms of financial events, IEA's monthly crude oil market report, the European Central Bank's interest rate decision, the monthly report on residential sales prices in 70 large and medium-sized cities in China, and Baidu's \"Wen Xin Yi Yan\" theme conference will all be released this week. In terms of financial reports, US stocks FedEx, Adobe, XPeng Automobile and Hong Kong stocks Ping An of China, Longfor Group, Li Ning and China Literature Group will announce their financial reports this week.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/618ec520caf78a2aaff48d97ddb5ad65\" tg-width=\"2096\" tg-height=\"1458\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><b>Monday, March 13th Keywords: Conference Board Employment Trend Index; Federal Reserve calls an emergency private meeting of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System; Ping An Good Doctor, Nuohui Health Financial Report</b></p><p>On Monday, in terms of economic data, investors can pay attention to the Conference Board Employment Trend Index.</p><p>In terms of financial events, the Federal Reserve will hold an emergency private meeting of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, with the agenda of evaluating and deciding on the upfront interest rate and discount rate charged by the Federal Reserve Bank.</p><p>In terms of financial report, Hong Kong stocks<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01833\">Ping An Good Doctor</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06606\">NovoHealth-B</a>Earnings will be released separately.</p><p><b>Tuesday, March 14 KEYWORDS: US CPI data, US NFIB Small Business Confidence Index</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/56a2a7b255ad5f7828401a91efafea29\" tg-width=\"949\" tg-height=\"523\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>On Tuesday, in terms of economic data, the market focused on a series of CPI data to be released in the United States, including the annual rate of CPI without seasonal adjustment and the monthly rate of CPI after seasonal adjustment.</p><p>At present, the market expects that the annual CPI rate of the United States in February will not be seasonally adjusted to 6%, slightly lower than the previous value of 6.4%. The monthly CPI rate of the United States in February was 0.4% after seasonal adjustment, which was also slightly lower than the previous value of 0.5%. According to the data released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 6.4% year-on-year in January. Excluding volatile energy and food prices, core CPI rose 5.6% year-over-year for the month, down from the previous value of 5.7%. Previously, economists expected the consumer price index to rise 6.2% year-on-year in January, while the core CPI rose 0.4% month-on-month and 5.5% year-on-year. The CPI data shows how consumers pay for goods and services. On March 14th, the United States will release the CPI data for February, and investors need to focus on it.<b>Wednesday, March 15th Keywords: U.S. API and EIA crude oil inventory changes during the week; U.S. February Retail Sales Monthly Rate; Bank of Japan January Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes; Ping An of China, ZTO Express Financial Report</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/61e78a458a0a285bc018d945b1f0e4e8\" tg-width=\"952\" tg-height=\"1173\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>On Wednesday, in terms of economic data, the United States will announce the changes of API and EIA crude oil inventories that week, which is expected to affect the trend of oil prices.</p><p>API crude oil inventories in the United States decreased by 3.835 million barrels in the week ending March 2, while analysts expected a decrease of 30,800 barrels, and the previous value increased by 6.203 million barrels. In the week of March 3, U.S. EIA crude oil inventories decreased by 1.694 million barrels, expected to increase by 1.6 million barrels, and the previous value increased by 1.166 million barrels. On March 15th, the United States will announce the changes of API and EIA crude oil inventories for the week ending March 10th, or continue to decrease. In terms of financial events, the IEA (International Energy Agency) will release the monthly crude oil market report, so investors need to pay close attention.</p><p>In terms of financial report, Hong Kong stocks<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02318\">Ping An of China</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02057\">ZTO Express-SW</a>Will report earnings.</p><p><b>Thursday, March 16th Keywords: U.S. jobless claims for the week; ECB Interest Rate Decision; Baidu's \"Wen Xin Yi Yan\" theme conference; Adobe, Shell, Li-Ning Earnings</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8cd0c2302aacd4f4202bd46f7cb53ade\" tg-width=\"952\" tg-height=\"1294\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>On Thursday, in terms of economic data, investors should pay close attention to the number of initial unemployment claims that week.</p><p>In terms of financial events, the European Central Bank will hold an interest rate decision.</p><p>On March 8th, local time, Visco, governor of the Italian central bank, said that he disapproved of the European Central Bank's continued rate hike and believed that its monetary policy should continue to be cautious. However, the market expects that the European Central Bank is likely to raise interest rates in March. Judging from the statements of the main officials of the European Central Bank at present, the European Central Bank is likely to continue its rate hike at the monetary policy meeting in March, and the rate hike of 50 basis points is already a high probability event. European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde recently told the media that core inflation in the euro zone will remain high in the short term, so it is increasingly likely that the European Central Bank will rate hike 50 basis points later this month. In addition, Baidu will hold a press conference with the theme of \"Wen Xin Yi Yan\".</p><p>Baidu plans to hold a press conference at 14: 00 on March 16th in Beijing headquarters, with the theme revolving around Wen Xinyiyan. Li Yanhong, founder, chairman and CEO of Baidu, and Wang Haifeng, chief technology officer of Baidu, will attend. In addition, the monthly report of residential sales prices in 70 large and medium-sized cities published by the National Bureau of Statistics should also be closely paid attention to.</p><p>In terms of financial reports, the world's largest creative design software manufacturer<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ADBE\">Adobe</a>The financial report will be announced after the U.S. stock market closes on March 15th,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BEKE\">Shell</a>Will report earnings before the U.S. stock market on March 16th.</p><p>In addition, Hong Kong stocks<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02331\">Li Ning</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00772\">China Literature Group</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03606\">Fuyao Glass</a>The financial report will also be announced on the same day.</p><p><b>Friday, March 17th Keywords: University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index; FedEx, XPeng Motors, Longfor Earnings</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/82c1948786b0c86f1a7c5cf88741b873\" tg-width=\"955\" tg-height=\"199\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>On Friday, in terms of economic data, the consumer confidence index of the University of Michigan in the United States will be released soon.</p><p>In terms of financial report, \"the barometer of the U.S. economy\"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FDX\">FedEx</a>Will release earnings after the market on March 16th, domestic new energy vehicle brands<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">XPeng Motors</a>Earnings will be released premarket on March 17th.</p><p>In addition, Hong Kong stocks<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00960\">LONGFOR GROUP</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01313\">China Resources Cement Holdings</a>The earnings report will also be released on the same day.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d256e82db1d71c864259845ce1d069bf","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1148015560","content_text":"本周（3.13-3.17）重磅财经事件及数据如下：经济数据方面，本周将发布多个重要数据，其中美国未季调CPI年率、季调后CPI月率、截至3月10日当周API和EIA原油库存变动、截至3月11日当周初请失业金人数等应留意。财经事件方面，IEA月度原油市场报告、欧洲央行利率决议、中国70个大中城市住宅销售价格月度报告、百度“文心一言”主题发布会等都将在本周进行发布。财报方面，美股联邦快递、Adobe、小鹏汽车与港股中国平安、龙湖集团、李宁、阅文集团等将在本周公布财报。3月13日 周一关键词：美国谘商会就业趋势指数；美联储紧急召开联邦储备系统理事会非公开会议；平安好医生、诺辉健康财报周一，经济数据方面，投资者可关注美国谘商会就业趋势指数。财经事件方面，美联储将紧急召开联邦储备系统理事会非公开会议，议程为评估并决定联邦储备银行收取的预付利率和贴现率。财报方面，港股平安好医生、诺辉健康-B将分别发布财报。3月14日 周二关键词：美国CPI数据、美国NFIB小型企业信心指数周二，经济数据方面，市场重点关注美国将公布的一系列CPI数据，包括未季调CPI年率，季调后CPI月率等。目前市场预期美国2月CPI年率未季调为6%，略低于6.4%的前值。美国2月CPI月率季调后为0.4%，同样略低于0.5%的前值美国劳工统计局发布数据显示，1月美国消费者价格指数（CPI）同比增长6.4%。剔除波动较大的能源和食品价格后，核心CPI当月同比上涨5.6%，低于前值的5.7%。此前，经济学家预计，1月消费者价格指数同比将上升6.2%，核心CPI环比上涨0.4%，同比上涨5.5%。CPI数据展示的是消费者支付的商品和服务价格的变动情况。3月14日，美国将公布2月份CPI数据，投资者需重点关注。3月15日 周三关键词：美国当周API和EIA原油库存变动；美国2月零售销售月率；日本央行1月货币政策会议纪要；中国平安、中通快递财报周三，经济数据方面，美国将公布当周API和EIA原油库存变动，料影响油价走势。美国截至3月2日当周API原油库存减少383.5万桶，分析师预期减少3.08万桶，前值增加620.3万桶。3月3日当周，美国EIA原油库存减少169.4万桶，预期增加160万桶，前值增加116.6万桶。3月15日，美国将公布截至3月10日当周API和EIA原油库存变动，或继续减少。财经事件方面，IEA（国际能源署）将公布月度原油市场报告，投资者需密切注意。财报方面，港股中国平安、中通快递-SW将公布财报。3月16日 周四关键词：美国当周初请失业金人数；欧洲央行利率决议；百度“文心一言”主题发布会；Adobe、贝壳、李宁财报周四，经济数据方面，投资者应密切关注当周初请失业金人数。财经事件方面，欧洲央行将举行利率决议。当地时间3月8日，意大利央行行长维斯科表示，不赞成欧洲央行继续加息，认为其货币政策应继续保持谨慎。不过，市场预期欧洲央行很有可能3月加息。从目前欧洲央行各主要官员的表态来看，欧洲央行很有可能在3月货币政策会议上继续加息，并且加息50个基点也已经是大概率事件。欧洲央行行长拉加德近日对媒体表示，欧元区核心通胀将在短期内保持高位，因此，欧洲央行本月晚些时候加息50个基点的可能性越来越大。此外，百度将召开“文心一言”主题发布会。百度计划于3月16日14时在北京总部召开新闻发布会，主题围绕文心一言。百度创始人、董事长兼首席执行官李彦宏，百度首席技术官王海峰将出席。另外，国家统计局公布的70个大中城市住宅销售价格月度报告也应密切留意。财报方面，全球最大的创意设计软件制造商Adobe将于3月15日美股盘后公布财报，贝壳将于3月16日美股盘前公布财报。此外，港股李宁、阅文集团、福耀玻璃也将于当日公布财报。3月17日 周五关键词：美国密歇根大学消费者信心指数；联邦快递、小鹏汽车、龙湖集团财报周五，经济数据方面，美国密歇根大学消费者信心指数即将公布。财报方面，“美国经济的晴雨表”联邦快递将于3月16日盘后发布财报，国内新能源汽车品牌小鹏汽车将于3月17日盘前发布财报。此外，港股龙湖集团、华润水泥控股也将于当日发布财报。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3804,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9949672317,"gmtCreate":1678666713439,"gmtModify":1678672906962,"author":{"id":"3582255225539540","authorId":"3582255225539540","name":"maxcheng","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/e349509cb3a5b7ead6c5501a0aff9b47","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582255225539540","idStr":"3582255225539540"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"👍","listText":"👍","text":"👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9949672317","repostId":"2319087577","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3887,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9949621834,"gmtCreate":1678619465628,"gmtModify":1678620074162,"author":{"id":"3582255225539540","authorId":"3582255225539540","name":"maxcheng","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/e349509cb3a5b7ead6c5501a0aff9b47","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582255225539540","idStr":"3582255225539540"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"👍","listText":"👍","text":"👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9949621834","repostId":"1158350017","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4238,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":9970048554,"gmtCreate":1683758128178,"gmtModify":1683758131609,"author":{"id":"3582255225539540","authorId":"3582255225539540","name":"maxcheng","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/e349509cb3a5b7ead6c5501a0aff9b47","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582255225539540","idStr":"3582255225539540"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"k","listText":"k","text":"k","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9970048554","repostId":"9970040121","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":9970040121,"gmtCreate":1683747280963,"gmtModify":1683756566648,"author":{"id":"10000000000010714","authorId":"10000000000010714","name":"HueFin News","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/525ab01de57ae269d24770433c37e0ed","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"10000000000010714","idStr":"10000000000010714"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"\n \n \n  Is Paypal Stock Plunge A Red Flag? PYPL Stock Prediction\n \n","listText":"Is Paypal Stock Plunge A Red Flag? PYPL Stock Prediction","text":"Is Paypal Stock Plunge A Red Flag? PYPL Stock Prediction","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9970040121","isVote":1,"tweetType":2,"object":{"id":"08721a20d2444035a1fa2d4e33830030","tweetId":"9970040121","title":"Is Paypal Stock Plunge A Red Flag? PYPL Stock Prediction","videoUrl":"http://v.tigerbbs.com/168374727464114cb42dfb4a3fc8968bd91d578f44794.mp4","poster":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3cc89fa2536ae91b61ecbfdc44633e01","shareLink":"http://v.tigerbbs.com/168374727464114cb42dfb4a3fc8968bd91d578f44794.mp4"},"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3564,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9947849083,"gmtCreate":1682980776843,"gmtModify":1682980780328,"author":{"id":"3582255225539540","authorId":"3582255225539540","name":"maxcheng","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/e349509cb3a5b7ead6c5501a0aff9b47","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582255225539540","idStr":"3582255225539540"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9947849083","repostId":"2332624680","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2332624680","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1682936298,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2332624680?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-05-01 18:18","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"The \"eagle heart\" of the Federal Reserve may be difficult to shake! Another big stick to market expectations?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2332624680","media":"金十数据","summary":"期货市场几乎完全消化了美联储将在本月加息25个基点的预期，投机者纷纷出手押注美元走软，美联储今年年尾的降息预期真的“稳”了吗？","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Identifying with the market is equivalent to admitting mistakes! Is the expectation that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates at the end of this year really \"stable\"? As the Fed's biggest interest rate tightening campaign in decades draws to a close, the painful lessons of past policy mistakes will seriously affect the pace of policymakers' follow-up.</p><p><strong>While the Fed is pushing rate hike at the fastest pace in decades, how long Federal Funds rate will stay high is a question that even they can hardly answer themselves</strong>。 No one knows how long it will take to contain sticky services inflation, or how quickly the credit crunch will unravel demand.</p><p><strong>Futures markets have almost fully digested the 25 basis points that the Federal Reserve will rate hike this month</strong>And brought Federal Funds rate to expectations in the range of 5% to 5.25%. At present, the market is more concerned about:<strong>Whether Powell and his colleagues will signal a pause on rate hike.</strong></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fc56221eb7e0d4e03280c68cd825c113\" tg-width=\"1920\" tg-height=\"1080\"/></p><p><strong>Speculators have taken a bet?</strong></p><p>Because the Fed is expected to pause after this week's rate hike,<strong>Investors are betting on an impending weakness in the dollar.</strong></p><p>According to data from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), as of April 25th,<strong>Hedge funds and other big speculators increased their net bearish positions on the dollar against major currencies to more than 70,000, the highest level since June 2021</strong>。 According to the foreign media's measurement of the exchange rate of the US dollar against major trading partners,<strong>The dollar will erase all gains since the Federal Reserve began raising its Federal Funds rate last March</strong>。</p><p>As the European Central Bank and the Bank of England are expected to take more aggressive action in the coming months,<strong>Speculators are eyeing the possibility of extending the rally for the euro and pound</strong>。<strong>The euro and sterling have emerged as one of the top three major developed currencies performing this year.</strong><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NMR\">Nomura Holdings</a>Sydney-based interest rate strategist Andrew Ticehurst said:</p><p>\"We remain bullish on the euro, as the market generally believes that the Fed will stage a\" last dance \"and the ECB has more work to do. It is believed that the ECB and the Bank of England will outpace the Fed's subsequent rate hike, especially as the U.S. economic outlook is shadowed by recession fears and concerns about the banking sector and the debt ceiling.\"<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a5366d937cbbd752016f07b9ca2f987f\" tg-width=\"2000\" tg-height=\"1143\"/></p><p><strong>The market's expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut is wrong again?</strong></p><p>Includes<strong><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>Economists, including the Fed, lowered their forecast for another rate hike in June</strong>Jonathan Pingle, chief U.S. economist at UBS, expected the Fed to signal a pause, but added,<strong>If the data calls for it, they will rate hike again</strong>。 He noted that,<strong>The last rate hike of the Fed's last three rate hike cycles has been accompanied by a \"disclaimer\" that the next move could be another rate hike rather than a rate cut.</strong>Because inflation remains well above target levels, while<strong>A definitive end to rate hike could upend public expectations of the Fed's pledge to maintain stable prices</strong>。</p><p>Moreover, the Fed's ideas may be inspired by its long battle with inflation from the late 1960s to the early 1980s, and strive to avoid a repeat of what Wharton professor Jeremy Siegel once called \"the greatest failure of postwar US macroeconomic policy.\"</p><p>During that time,<strong>Fed Fails to Stop Wage Price Spiral</strong>, after several attempts to raise and lower interest rates, Federal Funds rate even peaked at 20%, and experienced four recessions before the Fed finally got things under control.</p><p>Emily Roland, co-chief Investment strategist at John Hancock Investment Management, said of the Fed:</p><p>\"We expect policymakers to probably stop and look at the geometry of the impact of all the rate hike they've done so far, but they certainly won't agree with the bond market or say they won't cut rates in the second half of the year, that's basically the equivalent of acknowledging that you've made a mistake and will have to go 'back' on interest rates.\"<strong>Risky assets could rebound if Powell's or Fed's statements suggest a rate hike pause after May</strong>。 Roland said that if Powell made a dovish statement, it would be a surprise and could provide another boost for the market. But Roland also said there is still a need for caution. She said:</p><p>\"I think we should be wary of chasing gains, because the market is showing little sign of investors being bearish at the moment: volatility is low, the VIX is below 20, and the expected P/E of the S&P 500 is 18 times. Be careful not to add too much risk to the portfolio when macroeconomic conditions are completely different from market conditions.\"</body></html></p>","source":"xnew_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The \"eagle heart\" of the Federal Reserve may be difficult to shake! Another big stick to market expectations?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe \"eagle heart\" of the Federal Reserve may be difficult to shake! Another big stick to market expectations?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">金十数据</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2023-05-01 18:18</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Identifying with the market is equivalent to admitting mistakes! Is the expectation that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates at the end of this year really \"stable\"? As the Fed's biggest interest rate tightening campaign in decades draws to a close, the painful lessons of past policy mistakes will seriously affect the pace of policymakers' follow-up.</p><p><strong>While the Fed is pushing rate hike at the fastest pace in decades, how long Federal Funds rate will stay high is a question that even they can hardly answer themselves</strong>。 No one knows how long it will take to contain sticky services inflation, or how quickly the credit crunch will unravel demand.</p><p><strong>Futures markets have almost fully digested the 25 basis points that the Federal Reserve will rate hike this month</strong>And brought Federal Funds rate to expectations in the range of 5% to 5.25%. At present, the market is more concerned about:<strong>Whether Powell and his colleagues will signal a pause on rate hike.</strong></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fc56221eb7e0d4e03280c68cd825c113\" tg-width=\"1920\" tg-height=\"1080\"/></p><p><strong>Speculators have taken a bet?</strong></p><p>Because the Fed is expected to pause after this week's rate hike,<strong>Investors are betting on an impending weakness in the dollar.</strong></p><p>According to data from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), as of April 25th,<strong>Hedge funds and other big speculators increased their net bearish positions on the dollar against major currencies to more than 70,000, the highest level since June 2021</strong>。 According to the foreign media's measurement of the exchange rate of the US dollar against major trading partners,<strong>The dollar will erase all gains since the Federal Reserve began raising its Federal Funds rate last March</strong>。</p><p>As the European Central Bank and the Bank of England are expected to take more aggressive action in the coming months,<strong>Speculators are eyeing the possibility of extending the rally for the euro and pound</strong>。<strong>The euro and sterling have emerged as one of the top three major developed currencies performing this year.</strong><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NMR\">Nomura Holdings</a>Sydney-based interest rate strategist Andrew Ticehurst said:</p><p>\"We remain bullish on the euro, as the market generally believes that the Fed will stage a\" last dance \"and the ECB has more work to do. It is believed that the ECB and the Bank of England will outpace the Fed's subsequent rate hike, especially as the U.S. economic outlook is shadowed by recession fears and concerns about the banking sector and the debt ceiling.\"<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a5366d937cbbd752016f07b9ca2f987f\" tg-width=\"2000\" tg-height=\"1143\"/></p><p><strong>The market's expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut is wrong again?</strong></p><p>Includes<strong><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>Economists, including the Fed, lowered their forecast for another rate hike in June</strong>Jonathan Pingle, chief U.S. economist at UBS, expected the Fed to signal a pause, but added,<strong>If the data calls for it, they will rate hike again</strong>。 He noted that,<strong>The last rate hike of the Fed's last three rate hike cycles has been accompanied by a \"disclaimer\" that the next move could be another rate hike rather than a rate cut.</strong>Because inflation remains well above target levels, while<strong>A definitive end to rate hike could upend public expectations of the Fed's pledge to maintain stable prices</strong>。</p><p>Moreover, the Fed's ideas may be inspired by its long battle with inflation from the late 1960s to the early 1980s, and strive to avoid a repeat of what Wharton professor Jeremy Siegel once called \"the greatest failure of postwar US macroeconomic policy.\"</p><p>During that time,<strong>Fed Fails to Stop Wage Price Spiral</strong>, after several attempts to raise and lower interest rates, Federal Funds rate even peaked at 20%, and experienced four recessions before the Fed finally got things under control.</p><p>Emily Roland, co-chief Investment strategist at John Hancock Investment Management, said of the Fed:</p><p>\"We expect policymakers to probably stop and look at the geometry of the impact of all the rate hike they've done so far, but they certainly won't agree with the bond market or say they won't cut rates in the second half of the year, that's basically the equivalent of acknowledging that you've made a mistake and will have to go 'back' on interest rates.\"<strong>Risky assets could rebound if Powell's or Fed's statements suggest a rate hike pause after May</strong>。 Roland said that if Powell made a dovish statement, it would be a surprise and could provide another boost for the market. But Roland also said there is still a need for caution. She said:</p><p>\"I think we should be wary of chasing gains, because the market is showing little sign of investors being bearish at the moment: volatility is low, the VIX is below 20, and the expected P/E of the S&P 500 is 18 times. Be careful not to add too much risk to the portfolio when macroeconomic conditions are completely different from market conditions.\"</body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://xnews.jin10.com/webapp/details.html?id=111557&type=news&data_type=0\">金十数据</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6a5657d24ae68fd59066d5458a132c55","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF博时","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares","BK4588":"碎股","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","BK4504":"桥水持仓","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","BK4581":"高盛持仓","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","OEX":"标普100","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","SPY":"标普500ETF","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念",".DJI":"道琼斯","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares","DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓"},"source_url":"https://xnews.jin10.com/webapp/details.html?id=111557&type=news&data_type=0","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2332624680","content_text":"认同市场就等于承认错误！美联储将于今年年尾的降息预期真的“稳”了吗？随着美联储几十年来最大幅度的利率紧缩运动接近尾声，过去政策错误所导致的惨痛教训将严重影响政策制定者的后续步伐。尽管美联储以几十年来最快的速度推加息，但联邦基金利率会在高位停留多久是一个连他们自己都很难回答的问题。没人知道要多久才能控制高粘性的服务业通胀，也没人知道信贷紧缩会以多快的速度瓦解需求。期货市场几乎完全消化了美联储将在本月加息25个基点，并使联邦基金利率至5%至5.25%区间的预期。目前市场比较关注的是：鲍威尔及其同事是否会发出暂停加息的信号。投机者已出手押注？因为预计美联储在本周加息后暂停，投资者纷纷押注美元即将走软。美国商品期货交易委员会（CFTC）的数据显示，截至4月25日，对冲基金和其他大型投机者将美元兑主要货币的净看空头寸增至逾7万份，为2021年6月以来的最高水平。根据外媒对美元兑主要贸易伙伴汇率的衡量，美元将抹去自美联储去年3月开始提高联邦基金利率以来的所有涨幅。由于欧洲央行和英国央行预计将在未来几个月采取更为激进的行动，投机者正关注欧元和英镑延续涨势的可能性。欧元和英镑已成为今年表现最好的三大主要发达国家货币之一。野村控股驻悉尼的利率策略师Andrew Ticehurst表示：“我们仍看好欧元，因市场普遍认为美联储将上演“最后一舞”，而欧洲央行还有更多工作要做。人们认为，欧洲央行和英国央行的后续加息幅度将超过美联储，尤其是在美国经济前景笼罩在对衰退的担忧以及对银行业和债务上限的担忧阴影之下。”市场对美联储的降息预期又错？包括高盛在内的经济学家下调了美联储在6月再次加息的预期，瑞银首席美国经济学家Jonathan Pingle预计，美联储将发出暂停的信号，但他也补充说，如果数据需要，他们会再次加息。他指出，美联储过去三个加息周期的最后一次加息都附有“免责声明”，即下一步行动可能是再次加息而不是降息。因为通胀仍远高于目标水平，而明确结束加息可能会颠覆公众对美联储维持稳定物价承诺的预期。此外，美联储的想法可能会受到20世纪60年代末至80年代初其与通胀的长期斗争的启发，并努力避免重蹈沃顿商学院教授杰里米-西格尔（Jeremy Siegel）曾称为 “战后美国宏观经济政策的最大失败”的覆辙。在那段时间里，美联储未能阻止工资价格的螺旋式上升，经过几次提高和降低利率的尝试，联邦基金利率甚至达到了20%的峰值，并经历四次经济衰退，美联储最终才将事情控制住。约翰-汉考克投资管理公司（John Hancock Investment Management）的联合首席投资策略师Emily Roland在谈到美联储时说：“我们预计会政策制定者可能会停下来看看他们到目前为止所做的所有加息的影响几何，但他们肯定不会同意债券市场的意见，或者说他们不会在下半年降息，那基本上相当于承认你已经犯了一个错误，将不得不在利率上走‘回头路’。”如果鲍威尔或美联储的声明暗示5月后将暂停加息，风险资产可能会反弹。Roland称，如果鲍威尔发表了鸽派的表态，这将令人意外，可能为市场提供另一股推动力。但Roland也表示，仍有保持谨慎的必要。她说：“我认为要警惕追涨，因为目前市场几乎没有显示出投资者看空的迹象：波动性很低，VIX指数低于20，标普500指数的预期市盈率为18倍。在宏观经济情况与市场情况完全不同的情况下，注意不要给投资组合增加太多风险。”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.6,"513500":0.6,"PSQ":0.6,".IXIC":1,"MNQmain":0.6,"SH":0.6,"DOG":0.6,"OEX":0.6,"UPRO":0.6,"SDOW":0.6,"SPXU":0.6,"NQmain":0.6,"DDM":0.6,"OEF":0.6,"UDOW":0.6,"IVV":0.6,"DXD":0.6,"QQQ":0.6,"TQQQ":0.6,"SSO":0.6,"SQQQ":0.6,"ESmain":0.6,"QID":0.6,"DJX":0.6,"SDS":0.6,".SPX":0.6,"SPY":1,".DJI":1,"QLD":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3623,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9941398029,"gmtCreate":1679957631662,"gmtModify":1679957635558,"author":{"id":"3582255225539540","authorId":"3582255225539540","name":"maxcheng","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/e349509cb3a5b7ead6c5501a0aff9b47","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582255225539540","idStr":"3582255225539540"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"O","listText":"O","text":"O","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9941398029","repostId":"1188760696","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1188760696","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"追踪全球财经热点，精选影响您财富的资讯，投资理财必备神器！","home_visible":1,"media_name":"华尔街见闻","id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"pubTimestamp":1679929853,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1188760696?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-03-27 23:10","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Learning from History: How Far Is the U.S. Economy From a Recession After the Banking Crisis?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1188760696","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"分析师表示，如果信用额度被取消，企业就必须裁员、削减开支，并采取其他必要行动。随着消费者削减开支，需求减少进一步影响到企业。这样的恶性循环将不断重复，直到经济陷入衰退。银行业危机很可能是经济形势恶化的","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>If the line of credit is removed, companies will have to cut jobs, cut expenses and take other necessary actions, analysts said. As consumers cut back on spending, reduced demand further affects businesses. Such an a vicious circle will repeat itself until the economy slips into recession. The banking crisis is likely to be the first warning sign of a worsening economic situation.</p><p>On March 25, Lance Roberts, an analyst at Real Investment Advice, wrote on the website that historically, the banking crisis was the first piece of evidence of problems as the Federal Reserve tightened monetary policy.</p><p>Last week, after including<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SIVB\">Silicon Valley Bank</a>Government agencies took action after several banks went bankrupt. The Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. FDIC, the Treasury Department and the Federal Reserve have released a term loan program for banks, the BTFP, offering $25 billion in loans as guarantee to protect uninsured depositors from the bankruptcy of Silicon Valley Bank.</p><p>Subsequently, 11 major large banks provided $30 billion in uninsured deposits to First Republic Bank. Roberts Think that,<b>Without guarantees from the Federal Reserve and Treasury, these deposits would not have appeared.</b></p><p>Banks then quickly took advantage of the lending program, and borrowing from the Federal Reserve surged by $152 billion, the largest borrowing in a week since the financial crisis. That number has soared to nearly $300 billion since last week.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8ae18323ab7e3883a5cdec1f1ae1be3e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"361\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Since then,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UBS\">UBS</a>Acquired with the help of the government<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CS\">Credit Suisse</a>The Federal Reserve reopened its dollar swap line to provide liquidity for foreign banks.</p><p>On March 19, the Bank of Canada, the Bank of England, the Bank of Japan, the European Central Bank, the Federal Reserve and the Swiss National Bank announced a coordinated action to strengthen the liquidity supply through a long-term dollar liquidity swap arrangement. In order to improve the effectiveness of swap lines in providing dollar funds, central banks currently providing dollar business have agreed to increase the frequency of seven-day maturity operations from weekly to daily. These daily operations began on March 20 and will continue until at least the end of April.</p><p>Roberts denotes,<b>Historically, further monetary easing measures — from interest rate cuts, \"quantitative easing\" to other liquidity operations — have followed once the Fed has opened up its dollar swap line. Of course, this is usually a reaction to a banking crisis, a credit-related event, a recession, or a combination of all three.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ce74955cbf82fc6ed9ad12f5c6ab8660\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"373\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>While the knee-jerk reaction to the reversal of monetary tightening is to buy risky assets, investors may want to be cautious because recessions tend to follow banking crises, Roberts said.</p><p><b>Banking crisis leads to recession</b></p><p>One obvious outcome of the banking crisis, Roberts noted, was the tightening of lending standards. Given that credit is the lifeblood of the economy, whether it is consumer or corporate credit, tightening lending standards has reduced economic mobility. When banks tighten lending standards for all types of businesses, a liquidity crunch will eventually lead to a recession. Many businesses rely on lines of credit or other measures to bridge the gap between producing a product or service and earning revenue.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f1970f0a20094a02f94bd0635eb78e52\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"393\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Roberts argues that if the line of credit is removed, businesses will have to lay off workers, cut expenses, and take other necessary actions. The economic drag intensifies as consumers cut spending, with reduced demand further affecting businesses. Such an a vicious circle will repeat itself until the economy slips into recession.</b></p><p>He added that there is a liquidity crunch in all forms of credit, from mortgages and auto loans to consumer credit.<b>The banking crisis is likely to be the first warning sign of a worsening economic situation.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4bedc7e814291ec1e88f1ee6c08db190\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"388\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>He also said that the last time there was such a sharp tightening of lending standards was during the economic stagnation caused by the pandemic. Many investors hope that the Fed's shift to monetary easing in response to recession risks will benefit stocks. But those hopes are likely to be lost, as a recession initially presents \"repricing risk\".</p><p><b>Recession poses repricing risk</b></p><p>Roberts went on to say that the optimistic expectation is that the bear market will end when the Fed makes a policy pivot. While there is nothing wrong with this expectation, it may not happen as quickly as bulls expect. When the Federal Reserve began cutting interest rates in history, it wasn't the end of a bear market for stocks, it was the beginning.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/89a6101db72600ac0fa5efee7c29b839\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"343\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>He noted that it was noteworthy that,<b>Most bear markets come after the Fed's policy pivot.</b>This is because policy shifts are often accompanied by a perception that something is going wrong economically (i.e., a recession) or financially (i.e., a credit crisis). When that happens and the Fed starts to act,<b>The market will reprice a sluggish economy and lower earnings growth rates.</b></p><p>Data from Real Investment Advice shows that current forward estimates of earnings remain well above the long-term growth trend, while earnings typically fall below the long-term growth trend during a recession or other financial or economic event.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/de7815326ff7c005a5a5671eeb36a517\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"358\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>A better way to understand this, says Roberts, is to look at long-term exponential growth trends in earnings. Historically, earnings have grown approximately 6% from one peak earnings cycle to the next. During a recession, deviations above the long-term exponential growth trend are corrected. The peak growth rate of 6% comes from an annual economic growth rate of about 6%.<b>It can be concluded that annual earnings changes are highly correlated with economic growth.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/83f5d7f221e55be18e778f7b2d98aeff\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"385\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Given that earnings are a function of economic activity, current estimates for the end of the year are unsustainable if the economy contracts, he said. Therefore, this deviation from long-term growth is unsustainable in a recession environment.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3f6262ba11c997e5b6277d817b3b88db\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"361\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Roberts pointed out that,<b>Because valuations are assumptions of future earnings, asset prices must be repriced to counter earnings risk, especially during the banking crisis.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/adce27e3d79c15302590b01a071eaf8d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"346\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Investors face two certain things, Roberts concludes: One is that the Federal Reserve's rate hike has triggered a banking crisis that will end in a recession as lending contracts; Second, it will force the Fed to finally cut interest rates and restart the next \"quantitative easing\" plan. Therefore, when the Fed begins to cut interest rates for the first time, it begins to acknowledge a recession.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Learning from History: How Far Is the U.S. Economy From a Recession After the Banking Crisis?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nLearning from History: How Far Is the U.S. Economy From a Recession After the Banking Crisis?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1084101182\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">华尔街见闻 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2023-03-27 23:10</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>If the line of credit is removed, companies will have to cut jobs, cut expenses and take other necessary actions, analysts said. As consumers cut back on spending, reduced demand further affects businesses. Such an a vicious circle will repeat itself until the economy slips into recession. The banking crisis is likely to be the first warning sign of a worsening economic situation.</p><p>On March 25, Lance Roberts, an analyst at Real Investment Advice, wrote on the website that historically, the banking crisis was the first piece of evidence of problems as the Federal Reserve tightened monetary policy.</p><p>Last week, after including<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SIVB\">Silicon Valley Bank</a>Government agencies took action after several banks went bankrupt. The Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. FDIC, the Treasury Department and the Federal Reserve have released a term loan program for banks, the BTFP, offering $25 billion in loans as guarantee to protect uninsured depositors from the bankruptcy of Silicon Valley Bank.</p><p>Subsequently, 11 major large banks provided $30 billion in uninsured deposits to First Republic Bank. Roberts Think that,<b>Without guarantees from the Federal Reserve and Treasury, these deposits would not have appeared.</b></p><p>Banks then quickly took advantage of the lending program, and borrowing from the Federal Reserve surged by $152 billion, the largest borrowing in a week since the financial crisis. That number has soared to nearly $300 billion since last week.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8ae18323ab7e3883a5cdec1f1ae1be3e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"361\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Since then,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UBS\">UBS</a>Acquired with the help of the government<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CS\">Credit Suisse</a>The Federal Reserve reopened its dollar swap line to provide liquidity for foreign banks.</p><p>On March 19, the Bank of Canada, the Bank of England, the Bank of Japan, the European Central Bank, the Federal Reserve and the Swiss National Bank announced a coordinated action to strengthen the liquidity supply through a long-term dollar liquidity swap arrangement. In order to improve the effectiveness of swap lines in providing dollar funds, central banks currently providing dollar business have agreed to increase the frequency of seven-day maturity operations from weekly to daily. These daily operations began on March 20 and will continue until at least the end of April.</p><p>Roberts denotes,<b>Historically, further monetary easing measures — from interest rate cuts, \"quantitative easing\" to other liquidity operations — have followed once the Fed has opened up its dollar swap line. Of course, this is usually a reaction to a banking crisis, a credit-related event, a recession, or a combination of all three.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ce74955cbf82fc6ed9ad12f5c6ab8660\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"373\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>While the knee-jerk reaction to the reversal of monetary tightening is to buy risky assets, investors may want to be cautious because recessions tend to follow banking crises, Roberts said.</p><p><b>Banking crisis leads to recession</b></p><p>One obvious outcome of the banking crisis, Roberts noted, was the tightening of lending standards. Given that credit is the lifeblood of the economy, whether it is consumer or corporate credit, tightening lending standards has reduced economic mobility. When banks tighten lending standards for all types of businesses, a liquidity crunch will eventually lead to a recession. Many businesses rely on lines of credit or other measures to bridge the gap between producing a product or service and earning revenue.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f1970f0a20094a02f94bd0635eb78e52\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"393\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Roberts argues that if the line of credit is removed, businesses will have to lay off workers, cut expenses, and take other necessary actions. The economic drag intensifies as consumers cut spending, with reduced demand further affecting businesses. Such an a vicious circle will repeat itself until the economy slips into recession.</b></p><p>He added that there is a liquidity crunch in all forms of credit, from mortgages and auto loans to consumer credit.<b>The banking crisis is likely to be the first warning sign of a worsening economic situation.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4bedc7e814291ec1e88f1ee6c08db190\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"388\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>He also said that the last time there was such a sharp tightening of lending standards was during the economic stagnation caused by the pandemic. Many investors hope that the Fed's shift to monetary easing in response to recession risks will benefit stocks. But those hopes are likely to be lost, as a recession initially presents \"repricing risk\".</p><p><b>Recession poses repricing risk</b></p><p>Roberts went on to say that the optimistic expectation is that the bear market will end when the Fed makes a policy pivot. While there is nothing wrong with this expectation, it may not happen as quickly as bulls expect. When the Federal Reserve began cutting interest rates in history, it wasn't the end of a bear market for stocks, it was the beginning.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/89a6101db72600ac0fa5efee7c29b839\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"343\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>He noted that it was noteworthy that,<b>Most bear markets come after the Fed's policy pivot.</b>This is because policy shifts are often accompanied by a perception that something is going wrong economically (i.e., a recession) or financially (i.e., a credit crisis). When that happens and the Fed starts to act,<b>The market will reprice a sluggish economy and lower earnings growth rates.</b></p><p>Data from Real Investment Advice shows that current forward estimates of earnings remain well above the long-term growth trend, while earnings typically fall below the long-term growth trend during a recession or other financial or economic event.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/de7815326ff7c005a5a5671eeb36a517\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"358\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>A better way to understand this, says Roberts, is to look at long-term exponential growth trends in earnings. Historically, earnings have grown approximately 6% from one peak earnings cycle to the next. During a recession, deviations above the long-term exponential growth trend are corrected. The peak growth rate of 6% comes from an annual economic growth rate of about 6%.<b>It can be concluded that annual earnings changes are highly correlated with economic growth.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/83f5d7f221e55be18e778f7b2d98aeff\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"385\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Given that earnings are a function of economic activity, current estimates for the end of the year are unsustainable if the economy contracts, he said. Therefore, this deviation from long-term growth is unsustainable in a recession environment.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3f6262ba11c997e5b6277d817b3b88db\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"361\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Roberts pointed out that,<b>Because valuations are assumptions of future earnings, asset prices must be repriced to counter earnings risk, especially during the banking crisis.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/adce27e3d79c15302590b01a071eaf8d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"346\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Investors face two certain things, Roberts concludes: One is that the Federal Reserve's rate hike has triggered a banking crisis that will end in a recession as lending contracts; Second, it will force the Fed to finally cut interest rates and restart the next \"quantitative easing\" plan. Therefore, when the Fed begins to cut interest rates for the first time, it begins to acknowledge a recession.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/627bc890436e46f74a0fe8143398a725","relate_stocks":{"161121":"银行"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1188760696","content_text":"分析师表示，如果信用额度被取消，企业就必须裁员、削减开支，并采取其他必要行动。随着消费者削减开支，需求减少进一步影响到企业。这样的恶性循环将不断重复，直到经济陷入衰退。银行业危机很可能是经济形势恶化的第一个警告信号。3月25日，Real Investment Advice 的分析师 Lance Roberts 在网站上写道，从历史上看，随着美联储收紧货币政策，银行业危机是问题出现的第一项证据。上周，在包括硅谷银行在内的几家银行破产倒闭后，政府机构采取了行动。联邦存款保险公司FDIC、财政部和美联储发布了一项银行定期贷款计划BTFP，提供250亿美元贷款作为担保，以保护未投保的储户免受硅谷银行破产的影响。随后，11家主要大型银行向第一共和国银行提供了300亿美元的无保险存款。Roberts 认为，如果没有美联储和财政部的保证，是不会出现这些存款的。银行随后迅速利用了这一贷款计划，向美联储借贷的资金激增了1520亿美元，这是自金融危机以来一周内规模最大的借款。自上周以来，这一数字已飙升至近3000亿美元。自那以后，瑞银在政府的撮合下收购了瑞士信贷，美联储重新开放了美元互换额度，为外国银行提供流动性。3月19日，加拿大央行、英国央行、日本央行、欧洲央行、美联储和瑞士央行银行宣布了一项协调行动，通过长期美元流动性互换安排加强流动性供应。为了提高互换额度在提供美元资金方面的有效性，目前提供美元业务的央行已同意将7天到期操作的频率从每周增加到每天。这些日常操作从3月20日开始，将至少将持续到4月底。Roberts 表示，从历史上看，一旦美联储开放美元互换额度，进一步的货币宽松措施——从降息、“量化宽松”到其他流动性操作就会随之而来。当然，这通常是对银行危机、信贷相关事件、经济衰退的反应，或三者兼而有之。Roberts 表示，尽管对货币紧缩政策逆转的下意识反应是购买风险资产，但投资者可能希望保持谨慎，因为经济衰退往往会在银行业危机之后出现。银行业危机导致经济衰退Roberts 指出，银行业危机的一个明显结果就是贷款标准的收紧。鉴于信贷是经济的命脉，无论是消费者信贷还是企业信贷，贷款标准的收紧都减少了经济流动。当银行收紧对各类企业的贷款标准时，流动性紧缩最终会导致经济衰退。许多企业依靠信用额度或其他措施来弥补生产产品或服务与获得收入之间的差距。Roberts 认为，如果信用额度被取消，企业就必须裁员、削减开支，并采取其他必要的行动。随着消费者削减开支，经济拖累加剧，需求减少进一步影响到企业。这样的恶性循环将不断重复，直到经济陷入衰退。他补充称，目前从抵押贷款、汽车贷款到消费信贷，所有形式的信贷都在出现流动性的紧缩。银行业危机很可能是经济形势恶化的第一个警告信号。他还说，上一次贷款标准出现如此大幅度的紧缩还是在疫情导致的经济停滞期间。许多投资者希望，美联储转向放松货币政策以应对衰退风险，这将利好股市。但这些希望可能会落空，因为经济衰退最初会带来“重新定价风险”。经济衰退带来重新定价风险Roberts 继续表示，乐观的预期是，当美联储做出政策转向时，熊市将会结束。虽然这种预期没有错，但它可能不会像多头预期的那样迅速发生。当美联储在历史上开始降息时，这并不是股市熊市的结束，而是开始。他指出，值得注意的是，大多数熊市都出现在美联储的政策转向之后。这是因为政策转向通常伴随着一种认知，即某些东西在经济上（即经济衰退）或金融上（即信用危机）出现了问题。当这种情况发生，美联储开始采取行动时，市场会为低迷的经济和更低的盈利增长率重新定价。Real Investment Advice的数据显示，目前对盈利的远期估计仍远高于长期增长趋势，而在经济衰退或其他金融或经济事件期间，盈利通常会低于长期增长趋势。Roberts 称，理解这一点的更好的方法是观察收益的长期指数增长趋势。从历史上看，从一个峰值收益周期到下一个峰值收益周期，收益大约增长大约6%。在经济衰退期间，高于长期指数增长趋势的偏差会得到修正。6%的峰值增长率来自于大约6%的年度经济增长率。可以得出结论，年度收益变化与经济增长高度相关。他表示，鉴于收益是经济活动的函数，如果经济收缩，目前对年底的估计是不可持续的。因此在经济衰退环境下，这种偏离长期增长的趋势是不可持续的。Roberts 指出，由于估值是对未来收益的假设，因此资产价格必须重新定价以应对盈利风险，尤其是在银行业危机期间。Roberts 总结道，投资者面临着两件肯定的事情：一是美联储的加息引发了一场银行业危机，随着贷款收缩，这场危机将以衰退告终；二是这将迫使美联储最终降息并重启下一个“量化宽松”计划。因此，当美联储开启第一次降息，就是开始承认经济衰退。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161121":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3632,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9943496527,"gmtCreate":1679611770870,"gmtModify":1679611774616,"author":{"id":"3582255225539540","authorId":"3582255225539540","name":"maxcheng","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/e349509cb3a5b7ead6c5501a0aff9b47","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582255225539540","idStr":"3582255225539540"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"ok","listText":"ok","text":"ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9943496527","repostId":"1193417234","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2899,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9949675027,"gmtCreate":1678666901970,"gmtModify":1678672906818,"author":{"id":"3582255225539540","authorId":"3582255225539540","name":"maxcheng","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/e349509cb3a5b7ead6c5501a0aff9b47","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582255225539540","idStr":"3582255225539540"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"👍","listText":"👍","text":"👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9949675027","repostId":"1148015560","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1148015560","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1678662881,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1148015560?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-03-13 07:14","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Preview this week | U.S. CPI data hits heavily! Adobe, XPeng Motors and More Post Earnings","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1148015560","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"本周（3.13-3.17）重磅财经事件及数据如下：经济数据方面，本周将发布多个重要数据，其中美国未季调CPI年率、季调后CPI月率、截至3月10日当周API和EIA原油库存变动、截至3月11日当周初请","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>This week's (3.13-3.17) blockbuster financial events and data are as follows:</p><p>In terms of economic data, a number of important data will be released this week, among which the annual CPI rate not seasonally adjusted in the United States, the monthly CPI rate after seasonal adjustment, the changes of API and EIA crude oil inventories in the week ending March 10th, and the number of initial unemployment claims in the week ending March 11th should be paid attention to. In terms of financial events, IEA's monthly crude oil market report, the European Central Bank's interest rate decision, the monthly report on residential sales prices in 70 large and medium-sized cities in China, and Baidu's \"Wen Xin Yi Yan\" theme conference will all be released this week. In terms of financial reports, US stocks FedEx, Adobe, XPeng Automobile and Hong Kong stocks Ping An of China, Longfor Group, Li Ning and China Literature Group will announce their financial reports this week.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/618ec520caf78a2aaff48d97ddb5ad65\" tg-width=\"2096\" tg-height=\"1458\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><b>Monday, March 13th Keywords: Conference Board Employment Trend Index; Federal Reserve calls an emergency private meeting of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System; Ping An Good Doctor, Nuohui Health Financial Report</b></p><p>On Monday, in terms of economic data, investors can pay attention to the Conference Board Employment Trend Index.</p><p>In terms of financial events, the Federal Reserve will hold an emergency private meeting of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, with the agenda of evaluating and deciding on the upfront interest rate and discount rate charged by the Federal Reserve Bank.</p><p>In terms of financial report, Hong Kong stocks<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01833\">Ping An Good Doctor</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06606\">NovoHealth-B</a>Earnings will be released separately.</p><p><b>Tuesday, March 14 KEYWORDS: US CPI data, US NFIB Small Business Confidence Index</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/56a2a7b255ad5f7828401a91efafea29\" tg-width=\"949\" tg-height=\"523\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>On Tuesday, in terms of economic data, the market focused on a series of CPI data to be released in the United States, including the annual rate of CPI without seasonal adjustment and the monthly rate of CPI after seasonal adjustment.</p><p>At present, the market expects that the annual CPI rate of the United States in February will not be seasonally adjusted to 6%, slightly lower than the previous value of 6.4%. The monthly CPI rate of the United States in February was 0.4% after seasonal adjustment, which was also slightly lower than the previous value of 0.5%. According to the data released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 6.4% year-on-year in January. Excluding volatile energy and food prices, core CPI rose 5.6% year-over-year for the month, down from the previous value of 5.7%. Previously, economists expected the consumer price index to rise 6.2% year-on-year in January, while the core CPI rose 0.4% month-on-month and 5.5% year-on-year. The CPI data shows how consumers pay for goods and services. On March 14th, the United States will release the CPI data for February, and investors need to focus on it.<b>Wednesday, March 15th Keywords: U.S. API and EIA crude oil inventory changes during the week; U.S. February Retail Sales Monthly Rate; Bank of Japan January Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes; Ping An of China, ZTO Express Financial Report</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/61e78a458a0a285bc018d945b1f0e4e8\" tg-width=\"952\" tg-height=\"1173\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>On Wednesday, in terms of economic data, the United States will announce the changes of API and EIA crude oil inventories that week, which is expected to affect the trend of oil prices.</p><p>API crude oil inventories in the United States decreased by 3.835 million barrels in the week ending March 2, while analysts expected a decrease of 30,800 barrels, and the previous value increased by 6.203 million barrels. In the week of March 3, U.S. EIA crude oil inventories decreased by 1.694 million barrels, expected to increase by 1.6 million barrels, and the previous value increased by 1.166 million barrels. On March 15th, the United States will announce the changes of API and EIA crude oil inventories for the week ending March 10th, or continue to decrease. In terms of financial events, the IEA (International Energy Agency) will release the monthly crude oil market report, so investors need to pay close attention.</p><p>In terms of financial report, Hong Kong stocks<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02318\">Ping An of China</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02057\">ZTO Express-SW</a>Will report earnings.</p><p><b>Thursday, March 16th Keywords: U.S. jobless claims for the week; ECB Interest Rate Decision; Baidu's \"Wen Xin Yi Yan\" theme conference; Adobe, Shell, Li-Ning Earnings</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8cd0c2302aacd4f4202bd46f7cb53ade\" tg-width=\"952\" tg-height=\"1294\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>On Thursday, in terms of economic data, investors should pay close attention to the number of initial unemployment claims that week.</p><p>In terms of financial events, the European Central Bank will hold an interest rate decision.</p><p>On March 8th, local time, Visco, governor of the Italian central bank, said that he disapproved of the European Central Bank's continued rate hike and believed that its monetary policy should continue to be cautious. However, the market expects that the European Central Bank is likely to raise interest rates in March. Judging from the statements of the main officials of the European Central Bank at present, the European Central Bank is likely to continue its rate hike at the monetary policy meeting in March, and the rate hike of 50 basis points is already a high probability event. European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde recently told the media that core inflation in the euro zone will remain high in the short term, so it is increasingly likely that the European Central Bank will rate hike 50 basis points later this month. In addition, Baidu will hold a press conference with the theme of \"Wen Xin Yi Yan\".</p><p>Baidu plans to hold a press conference at 14: 00 on March 16th in Beijing headquarters, with the theme revolving around Wen Xinyiyan. Li Yanhong, founder, chairman and CEO of Baidu, and Wang Haifeng, chief technology officer of Baidu, will attend. In addition, the monthly report of residential sales prices in 70 large and medium-sized cities published by the National Bureau of Statistics should also be closely paid attention to.</p><p>In terms of financial reports, the world's largest creative design software manufacturer<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ADBE\">Adobe</a>The financial report will be announced after the U.S. stock market closes on March 15th,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BEKE\">Shell</a>Will report earnings before the U.S. stock market on March 16th.</p><p>In addition, Hong Kong stocks<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02331\">Li Ning</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00772\">China Literature Group</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03606\">Fuyao Glass</a>The financial report will also be announced on the same day.</p><p><b>Friday, March 17th Keywords: University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index; FedEx, XPeng Motors, Longfor Earnings</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/82c1948786b0c86f1a7c5cf88741b873\" tg-width=\"955\" tg-height=\"199\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>On Friday, in terms of economic data, the consumer confidence index of the University of Michigan in the United States will be released soon.</p><p>In terms of financial report, \"the barometer of the U.S. economy\"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FDX\">FedEx</a>Will release earnings after the market on March 16th, domestic new energy vehicle brands<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">XPeng Motors</a>Earnings will be released premarket on March 17th.</p><p>In addition, Hong Kong stocks<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00960\">LONGFOR GROUP</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01313\">China Resources Cement Holdings</a>The earnings report will also be released on the same day.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Preview this week | U.S. CPI data hits heavily! Adobe, XPeng Motors and More Post Earnings</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPreview this week | U.S. CPI data hits heavily! Adobe, XPeng Motors and More Post Earnings\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2023-03-13 07:14</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>This week's (3.13-3.17) blockbuster financial events and data are as follows:</p><p>In terms of economic data, a number of important data will be released this week, among which the annual CPI rate not seasonally adjusted in the United States, the monthly CPI rate after seasonal adjustment, the changes of API and EIA crude oil inventories in the week ending March 10th, and the number of initial unemployment claims in the week ending March 11th should be paid attention to. In terms of financial events, IEA's monthly crude oil market report, the European Central Bank's interest rate decision, the monthly report on residential sales prices in 70 large and medium-sized cities in China, and Baidu's \"Wen Xin Yi Yan\" theme conference will all be released this week. In terms of financial reports, US stocks FedEx, Adobe, XPeng Automobile and Hong Kong stocks Ping An of China, Longfor Group, Li Ning and China Literature Group will announce their financial reports this week.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/618ec520caf78a2aaff48d97ddb5ad65\" tg-width=\"2096\" tg-height=\"1458\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><b>Monday, March 13th Keywords: Conference Board Employment Trend Index; Federal Reserve calls an emergency private meeting of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System; Ping An Good Doctor, Nuohui Health Financial Report</b></p><p>On Monday, in terms of economic data, investors can pay attention to the Conference Board Employment Trend Index.</p><p>In terms of financial events, the Federal Reserve will hold an emergency private meeting of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, with the agenda of evaluating and deciding on the upfront interest rate and discount rate charged by the Federal Reserve Bank.</p><p>In terms of financial report, Hong Kong stocks<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01833\">Ping An Good Doctor</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06606\">NovoHealth-B</a>Earnings will be released separately.</p><p><b>Tuesday, March 14 KEYWORDS: US CPI data, US NFIB Small Business Confidence Index</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/56a2a7b255ad5f7828401a91efafea29\" tg-width=\"949\" tg-height=\"523\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>On Tuesday, in terms of economic data, the market focused on a series of CPI data to be released in the United States, including the annual rate of CPI without seasonal adjustment and the monthly rate of CPI after seasonal adjustment.</p><p>At present, the market expects that the annual CPI rate of the United States in February will not be seasonally adjusted to 6%, slightly lower than the previous value of 6.4%. The monthly CPI rate of the United States in February was 0.4% after seasonal adjustment, which was also slightly lower than the previous value of 0.5%. According to the data released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 6.4% year-on-year in January. Excluding volatile energy and food prices, core CPI rose 5.6% year-over-year for the month, down from the previous value of 5.7%. Previously, economists expected the consumer price index to rise 6.2% year-on-year in January, while the core CPI rose 0.4% month-on-month and 5.5% year-on-year. The CPI data shows how consumers pay for goods and services. On March 14th, the United States will release the CPI data for February, and investors need to focus on it.<b>Wednesday, March 15th Keywords: U.S. API and EIA crude oil inventory changes during the week; U.S. February Retail Sales Monthly Rate; Bank of Japan January Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes; Ping An of China, ZTO Express Financial Report</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/61e78a458a0a285bc018d945b1f0e4e8\" tg-width=\"952\" tg-height=\"1173\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>On Wednesday, in terms of economic data, the United States will announce the changes of API and EIA crude oil inventories that week, which is expected to affect the trend of oil prices.</p><p>API crude oil inventories in the United States decreased by 3.835 million barrels in the week ending March 2, while analysts expected a decrease of 30,800 barrels, and the previous value increased by 6.203 million barrels. In the week of March 3, U.S. EIA crude oil inventories decreased by 1.694 million barrels, expected to increase by 1.6 million barrels, and the previous value increased by 1.166 million barrels. On March 15th, the United States will announce the changes of API and EIA crude oil inventories for the week ending March 10th, or continue to decrease. In terms of financial events, the IEA (International Energy Agency) will release the monthly crude oil market report, so investors need to pay close attention.</p><p>In terms of financial report, Hong Kong stocks<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02318\">Ping An of China</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02057\">ZTO Express-SW</a>Will report earnings.</p><p><b>Thursday, March 16th Keywords: U.S. jobless claims for the week; ECB Interest Rate Decision; Baidu's \"Wen Xin Yi Yan\" theme conference; Adobe, Shell, Li-Ning Earnings</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8cd0c2302aacd4f4202bd46f7cb53ade\" tg-width=\"952\" tg-height=\"1294\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>On Thursday, in terms of economic data, investors should pay close attention to the number of initial unemployment claims that week.</p><p>In terms of financial events, the European Central Bank will hold an interest rate decision.</p><p>On March 8th, local time, Visco, governor of the Italian central bank, said that he disapproved of the European Central Bank's continued rate hike and believed that its monetary policy should continue to be cautious. However, the market expects that the European Central Bank is likely to raise interest rates in March. Judging from the statements of the main officials of the European Central Bank at present, the European Central Bank is likely to continue its rate hike at the monetary policy meeting in March, and the rate hike of 50 basis points is already a high probability event. European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde recently told the media that core inflation in the euro zone will remain high in the short term, so it is increasingly likely that the European Central Bank will rate hike 50 basis points later this month. In addition, Baidu will hold a press conference with the theme of \"Wen Xin Yi Yan\".</p><p>Baidu plans to hold a press conference at 14: 00 on March 16th in Beijing headquarters, with the theme revolving around Wen Xinyiyan. Li Yanhong, founder, chairman and CEO of Baidu, and Wang Haifeng, chief technology officer of Baidu, will attend. In addition, the monthly report of residential sales prices in 70 large and medium-sized cities published by the National Bureau of Statistics should also be closely paid attention to.</p><p>In terms of financial reports, the world's largest creative design software manufacturer<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ADBE\">Adobe</a>The financial report will be announced after the U.S. stock market closes on March 15th,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BEKE\">Shell</a>Will report earnings before the U.S. stock market on March 16th.</p><p>In addition, Hong Kong stocks<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02331\">Li Ning</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00772\">China Literature Group</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03606\">Fuyao Glass</a>The financial report will also be announced on the same day.</p><p><b>Friday, March 17th Keywords: University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index; FedEx, XPeng Motors, Longfor Earnings</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/82c1948786b0c86f1a7c5cf88741b873\" tg-width=\"955\" tg-height=\"199\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>On Friday, in terms of economic data, the consumer confidence index of the University of Michigan in the United States will be released soon.</p><p>In terms of financial report, \"the barometer of the U.S. economy\"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FDX\">FedEx</a>Will release earnings after the market on March 16th, domestic new energy vehicle brands<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">XPeng Motors</a>Earnings will be released premarket on March 17th.</p><p>In addition, Hong Kong stocks<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00960\">LONGFOR GROUP</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01313\">China Resources Cement Holdings</a>The earnings report will also be released on the same day.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d256e82db1d71c864259845ce1d069bf","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1148015560","content_text":"本周（3.13-3.17）重磅财经事件及数据如下：经济数据方面，本周将发布多个重要数据，其中美国未季调CPI年率、季调后CPI月率、截至3月10日当周API和EIA原油库存变动、截至3月11日当周初请失业金人数等应留意。财经事件方面，IEA月度原油市场报告、欧洲央行利率决议、中国70个大中城市住宅销售价格月度报告、百度“文心一言”主题发布会等都将在本周进行发布。财报方面，美股联邦快递、Adobe、小鹏汽车与港股中国平安、龙湖集团、李宁、阅文集团等将在本周公布财报。3月13日 周一关键词：美国谘商会就业趋势指数；美联储紧急召开联邦储备系统理事会非公开会议；平安好医生、诺辉健康财报周一，经济数据方面，投资者可关注美国谘商会就业趋势指数。财经事件方面，美联储将紧急召开联邦储备系统理事会非公开会议，议程为评估并决定联邦储备银行收取的预付利率和贴现率。财报方面，港股平安好医生、诺辉健康-B将分别发布财报。3月14日 周二关键词：美国CPI数据、美国NFIB小型企业信心指数周二，经济数据方面，市场重点关注美国将公布的一系列CPI数据，包括未季调CPI年率，季调后CPI月率等。目前市场预期美国2月CPI年率未季调为6%，略低于6.4%的前值。美国2月CPI月率季调后为0.4%，同样略低于0.5%的前值美国劳工统计局发布数据显示，1月美国消费者价格指数（CPI）同比增长6.4%。剔除波动较大的能源和食品价格后，核心CPI当月同比上涨5.6%，低于前值的5.7%。此前，经济学家预计，1月消费者价格指数同比将上升6.2%，核心CPI环比上涨0.4%，同比上涨5.5%。CPI数据展示的是消费者支付的商品和服务价格的变动情况。3月14日，美国将公布2月份CPI数据，投资者需重点关注。3月15日 周三关键词：美国当周API和EIA原油库存变动；美国2月零售销售月率；日本央行1月货币政策会议纪要；中国平安、中通快递财报周三，经济数据方面，美国将公布当周API和EIA原油库存变动，料影响油价走势。美国截至3月2日当周API原油库存减少383.5万桶，分析师预期减少3.08万桶，前值增加620.3万桶。3月3日当周，美国EIA原油库存减少169.4万桶，预期增加160万桶，前值增加116.6万桶。3月15日，美国将公布截至3月10日当周API和EIA原油库存变动，或继续减少。财经事件方面，IEA（国际能源署）将公布月度原油市场报告，投资者需密切注意。财报方面，港股中国平安、中通快递-SW将公布财报。3月16日 周四关键词：美国当周初请失业金人数；欧洲央行利率决议；百度“文心一言”主题发布会；Adobe、贝壳、李宁财报周四，经济数据方面，投资者应密切关注当周初请失业金人数。财经事件方面，欧洲央行将举行利率决议。当地时间3月8日，意大利央行行长维斯科表示，不赞成欧洲央行继续加息，认为其货币政策应继续保持谨慎。不过，市场预期欧洲央行很有可能3月加息。从目前欧洲央行各主要官员的表态来看，欧洲央行很有可能在3月货币政策会议上继续加息，并且加息50个基点也已经是大概率事件。欧洲央行行长拉加德近日对媒体表示，欧元区核心通胀将在短期内保持高位，因此，欧洲央行本月晚些时候加息50个基点的可能性越来越大。此外，百度将召开“文心一言”主题发布会。百度计划于3月16日14时在北京总部召开新闻发布会，主题围绕文心一言。百度创始人、董事长兼首席执行官李彦宏，百度首席技术官王海峰将出席。另外，国家统计局公布的70个大中城市住宅销售价格月度报告也应密切留意。财报方面，全球最大的创意设计软件制造商Adobe将于3月15日美股盘后公布财报，贝壳将于3月16日美股盘前公布财报。此外，港股李宁、阅文集团、福耀玻璃也将于当日公布财报。3月17日 周五关键词：美国密歇根大学消费者信心指数；联邦快递、小鹏汽车、龙湖集团财报周五，经济数据方面，美国密歇根大学消费者信心指数即将公布。财报方面，“美国经济的晴雨表”联邦快递将于3月16日盘后发布财报，国内新能源汽车品牌小鹏汽车将于3月17日盘前发布财报。此外，港股龙湖集团、华润水泥控股也将于当日发布财报。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3804,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9949672317,"gmtCreate":1678666713439,"gmtModify":1678672906962,"author":{"id":"3582255225539540","authorId":"3582255225539540","name":"maxcheng","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/e349509cb3a5b7ead6c5501a0aff9b47","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582255225539540","idStr":"3582255225539540"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"👍","listText":"👍","text":"👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9949672317","repostId":"2319087577","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3887,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9949621834,"gmtCreate":1678619465628,"gmtModify":1678620074162,"author":{"id":"3582255225539540","authorId":"3582255225539540","name":"maxcheng","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/e349509cb3a5b7ead6c5501a0aff9b47","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582255225539540","idStr":"3582255225539540"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"👍","listText":"👍","text":"👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9949621834","repostId":"1158350017","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4238,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}