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2021-07-07
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2021-08-02
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Brokerage Strategy: The market is poised for a new generation; focus on mid-cap blue-chip stocks and technology growth stocks.
chewgoh
2021-07-07
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focus on mid-cap blue-chip stocks and technology growth stocks.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2156162952","media":"格隆汇","summary":"整体上，随着情绪扰动的消散，叠加上证50企稳+中小市值风格拉升动力充沛，市场有望蓄势迎新生。A股整体ROE持续改善的时间大概率会持续到2022年上半年，近期调整后，市场将会迎来2021年最好的买点。","content":"<p>Last week, the A-share market experienced a sharp downward correction, with significant sector divergence. Semiconductors and new energy began to gain momentum, with the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, and ChiNext Index closing down 4.31%, 3.7%, and 0.86% respectively week-on-week, while the STAR Market 50 Index rose 1.77%. The average daily turnover of the two markets exceeded one trillion yuan. This week will see the release of China's July CPI and the US non-farm payrolls report. What impact will this have on the market?</p><p>How will the market perform in the future? Let's look at the latest summary of strategies from the top ten securities firms.</p><p><b>1.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600030\">CITIC Securities</a>The extreme divergence in the A-share market in August is nearing its end. In terms of allocation, it is recommended to focus on both growth manufacturing and value consumption.</b></p><p>It is expected that the extreme divergence in the A-share market will near its end in August, and growth and value will return to equilibrium. In terms of allocation, it is recommended to focus on both growth manufacturing and value consumption. First, the peak of negative resonance between internal and external sentiment has passed, investors' expectations for industry policies were too pessimistic in the early stages, and the market overreacted. Domestic industry policies are more long-term, normative rather than disruptive. Once policy understanding is corrected, investor sentiment will slowly recover. Secondly, the herd effect of market funds has recently reached its extreme, with new funds building positions and existing funds adjusting positions both concentrated in growth manufacturing. Under the extreme differentiation, the liquidity siphoning effect of strong sectors is obvious. In August, the constraints of the overall tight balance of market liquidity gradually strengthened, and the market structure will return from extreme differentiation to equilibrium. Finally, the macroeconomic expectation combination of \"weak fundamentals + strong liquidity\" remains unchanged in August. Short-term disturbances in the domestic economy will not change the medium-term positive trend. Under the suppression of the Delta variant strain, the timing of economic recovery, herd immunity, and the exit of monetary easing in Europe and the United States will be postponed. Interbank liquidity will remain loose under the constraint of credit risk.</p><p>In terms of allocation, it is recommended to maintain a balance between growth manufacturing and value consumption. On the one hand, it is recommended to shift from high-priced sectors to relatively low-priced sectors within the growth sector, including leading companies in the military, 5G, and communications equipment industries. On the other hand, we can gradually invest in some consumer and pharmaceutical sectors that have undergone significant valuation adjustments, including automobiles and services, in advance.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300024\">Robot</a>Clothing, jewelry, beer, mid-to-high-end liquor, medical aesthetics, etc.</p><p><b>2.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600837\">Haitong Securities</a>The sharp short-term market decline is due to sentiment fluctuations, but we remain optimistic about the market in the second half of the year.</b></p><p>The sharp market decline caused by regulations in some industries is a short-term fluctuation in emotions, and the medium-term trend of the market depends on fundamentals. Macroeconomic policies will be relatively loose in the second half of the year, and the ROE of listed companies will continue to rebound. Valuations are acceptable, and the market is expected to rebuild. Rapid profit growth and in line with policy directions<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/5RE.SI\">smart</a>Manufacturing remains the first tier, and attention should be paid to the recovery of the midstream and downstream manufacturing sectors. The market has experienced a rapid correction in the past week, with the CSI 300 falling by as much as 9.8% and a cumulative decline of 5.5%. This is due to investor panic caused by regulatory policy adjustments in some industries. This short-term downward correction is similar to a summer thunderstorm. As the saying goes, a gust of wind doesn't last all morning, and a sudden rain doesn't last all day. The medium-term market trend will be determined by fundamentals, and we remain optimistic about the market in the second half of the year.</p><p><b>3.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601211\">Guotai Junan Securities</a>The market is expected to accumulate momentum and usher in a new era; focus on mid-cap blue-chip stocks and technology growth stocks.</b></p><p>The current fundamentals have not deteriorated substantially, and the micro-market trading structure of some sectors has not reached the threshold. This adjustment is a panic disturbance rather than a systemic risk.</p><p>Meanwhile, with the pressure to stabilize economic growth in the second half of the year and the bottom out of the broad fiscal cycle, the marginal easing of credit expectations will continue to strengthen, and the market capitalization of small and medium-sized enterprises will have ample momentum to improve marginally along with the credit cycle. Overall, with the dissipation of emotional disturbances, coupled with the stabilization of the SSE 50 index and the strong upward momentum of small and mid-cap stocks, the market is expected to accumulate momentum and usher in a new era.</p><p>Industry allocation: Amidst extreme differentiation, technology growth is the top choice, with a focus on second- and third-tier stocks. The extreme structural performance has raised market concerns about a pullback in strong sectors. \"Profitability decides the outcome, not the valuation ratio.\" The boom cycle in technology manufacturing combined with top-down catalysts remains our primary recommended direction. It's inevitable that stock prices will fluctuate at high levels, but it's by no means over.</p><p><b>4.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601901\">Founder Securities</a>Market volatility is expected to increase in August, with chemicals, electronics, and communications being the top choices.</b></p><p>Market volatility will increase in August, and the strong divergence in market styles will continue. Under the combined influence of liquidity environment, earnings trends, valuation levels, and policy guidance, growth is the direction with the least resistance. The core of the growth outperformance lies in changes in liquidity. Since the second quarter, liquidity has been better than expected, with the 10-bond yield continuing to decline after breaking through 3%, and market interest rates remaining at the lower end of the policy rate. The core reason for the easing of liquidity is that central banks around the world are focused on \"stagnation\" rather than \"inflation\". Judging from subsequent developments, the pattern of domestic liquidity being easy to loosen but difficult to tighten has been established.</p><p><b>5. </b><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601878\">Zhejiang Securities</a>Semiconductor companies listed on the ChiNext board are one of the areas with less resistance and can be focused on exploring.</b></p><p>The A-share market has entered a slow bull market era, with significant volatility but a shorter adjustment period. While indices are experiencing a slow bull market, sectoral bull markets are becoming the norm. Therefore, we believe that in the short term, after the market digests the pressure from popular sectors from Monday to Wednesday, it will return to stability and begin a structural bull market. Looking ahead to the second half of the year, with the strength of semiconductor and securities firms, the Shanghai Composite Index is expected to reach new heights.</p><p><b>6.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601162\">TF Securities</a>With declining cash flow and discount rates, we recommend allocating to growth and consumer sectors in August.</b></p><p>Finance, upstream and mid-cycle sectors are more sensitive to cash flow, that is, the level of economic prosperity, while downstream, consumer, and growth sectors are relatively less sensitive. Therefore, when cash flow is rising, allocations should be made to finance, upstream of the cycle, and midstream of the cycle; when cash flow is declining, allocations should be made to downstream of the cycle, consumption, and growth. According to the latest data, the Tianfeng Manufacturing Activity Index declined year-on-year, cash flow declined, and the discount rate declined. The model recommends allocating to growth and consumer sectors in August.</p><p><b>7. Cinda Securities: After the recent adjustment, the market will usher in the best buying opportunity of 2021.</b></p><p>Compared to 2010 and 2013, if macroeconomic expectations remain stable in the next month, the recent stock market correction is more likely to end within a month, with the Wind All A Index likely to see an adjustment of around 10%. From a valuation perspective, the price-to-book ratio of A-shares over the past year has been exactly the same as that of 2016-2017. As long as the overall ROE of listed companies does not show a downward trend, it should be difficult to break through the lower limit of price-to-book ratio in March 2021 and September 2020. The continued improvement in the overall ROE of A-shares is likely to continue until the first half of 2022. After the recent adjustment, the market will usher in the best buying opportunity in 2021.</p><p><b>8.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002926\">Huaxi Securities</a>Market adjustments are a process of risk release; technology growth remains a key focus for investment.</b></p><p>Against the backdrop of intensified external environmental risks and rising pressure to stabilize domestic economic growth, the intensity of macroeconomic policy adjustments may be marginally strengthened in the second half of the year, making it difficult for macroeconomic liquidity to tighten significantly. The recent increase in volatility in A-shares is more due to emotional disturbances. Market adjustments are also a process of risk release and do not currently pose a systemic risk. In terms of style, the \"hard technology\" related industry chain has policy support and is also a direction for mutual funds to adjust their portfolios and increase their allocation. However, the trading structure of popular sectors is crowded, and the related sectors have risen too quickly in the previous period, which may increase volatility in the future. Investors are advised to reasonably reduce their expected returns.</p><p><b>9. Open Source Securities: Waiting for volatility to decrease, no rush to \"buy the dip\"; cyclical value stocks are entering a pricing range.</b></p><p>Last week, major A-share indices stabilized after a significant correction, but there were still considerable differences among various investors. From a volatility perspective, the market is still facing structural risks: volatility has not converged, and historical experience indicates that the opportunity cost of observing at this time is not high. Investors do not need to rush to embrace already crowded popular sectors, or choose to \"buy the dip\" in the core asset class. In addition, the risk of slowdown in some sectors warrants vigilance. Historical experience indicates that some public funds' core assets are at risk of being exited, but this process takes a long time to repeat, and investors should not be overly pessimistic.</p><p><b>10. Yuekai Securities: There is no shortage of incremental funds in the capital market; the current competition still lies in the unclear investment theme.</b></p><p>Judging from market trading enthusiasm, market sentiment has diverged. While market trading volume increased in the second half of July, overall volatility also increased. On the one hand, previously favored stocks experienced a significant correction. On the other hand, high-growth sectors represented by new energy and semiconductors have maintained a relatively sustained enthusiasm for pursuit recently, and institutional funds are relatively determined to switch. There is no shortage of incremental funds in the capital market, but the current competition still lies in the unclear investment theme. The marginal easing of monetary policy is expected to continue, and structural adjustments may be emphasized in the future. The central bank's previous unexpected reserve requirement ratio cut also released the expectation of marginal easing of monetary policy in the second half of the year in advance.</p>","source":"stock_gelonghui","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Brokerage Strategy: The market is poised for a new generation; focus on mid-cap blue-chip stocks and technology growth stocks.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBrokerage Strategy: The market is poised for a new generation; focus on mid-cap blue-chip stocks and technology growth stocks.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">格隆汇</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-02 08:12</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Last week, the A-share market experienced a sharp downward correction, with significant sector divergence. Semiconductors and new energy began to gain momentum, with the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, and ChiNext Index closing down 4.31%, 3.7%, and 0.86% respectively week-on-week, while the STAR Market 50 Index rose 1.77%. The average daily turnover of the two markets exceeded one trillion yuan. This week will see the release of China's July CPI and the US non-farm payrolls report. What impact will this have on the market?</p><p>How will the market perform in the future? Let's look at the latest summary of strategies from the top ten securities firms.</p><p><b>1.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600030\">CITIC Securities</a>The extreme divergence in the A-share market in August is nearing its end. In terms of allocation, it is recommended to focus on both growth manufacturing and value consumption.</b></p><p>It is expected that the extreme divergence in the A-share market will near its end in August, and growth and value will return to equilibrium. In terms of allocation, it is recommended to focus on both growth manufacturing and value consumption. First, the peak of negative resonance between internal and external sentiment has passed, investors' expectations for industry policies were too pessimistic in the early stages, and the market overreacted. Domestic industry policies are more long-term, normative rather than disruptive. Once policy understanding is corrected, investor sentiment will slowly recover. Secondly, the herd effect of market funds has recently reached its extreme, with new funds building positions and existing funds adjusting positions both concentrated in growth manufacturing. Under the extreme differentiation, the liquidity siphoning effect of strong sectors is obvious. In August, the constraints of the overall tight balance of market liquidity gradually strengthened, and the market structure will return from extreme differentiation to equilibrium. Finally, the macroeconomic expectation combination of \"weak fundamentals + strong liquidity\" remains unchanged in August. Short-term disturbances in the domestic economy will not change the medium-term positive trend. Under the suppression of the Delta variant strain, the timing of economic recovery, herd immunity, and the exit of monetary easing in Europe and the United States will be postponed. Interbank liquidity will remain loose under the constraint of credit risk.</p><p>In terms of allocation, it is recommended to maintain a balance between growth manufacturing and value consumption. On the one hand, it is recommended to shift from high-priced sectors to relatively low-priced sectors within the growth sector, including leading companies in the military, 5G, and communications equipment industries. On the other hand, we can gradually invest in some consumer and pharmaceutical sectors that have undergone significant valuation adjustments, including automobiles and services, in advance.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300024\">Robot</a>Clothing, jewelry, beer, mid-to-high-end liquor, medical aesthetics, etc.</p><p><b>2.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600837\">Haitong Securities</a>The sharp short-term market decline is due to sentiment fluctuations, but we remain optimistic about the market in the second half of the year.</b></p><p>The sharp market decline caused by regulations in some industries is a short-term fluctuation in emotions, and the medium-term trend of the market depends on fundamentals. Macroeconomic policies will be relatively loose in the second half of the year, and the ROE of listed companies will continue to rebound. Valuations are acceptable, and the market is expected to rebuild. Rapid profit growth and in line with policy directions<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/5RE.SI\">smart</a>Manufacturing remains the first tier, and attention should be paid to the recovery of the midstream and downstream manufacturing sectors. The market has experienced a rapid correction in the past week, with the CSI 300 falling by as much as 9.8% and a cumulative decline of 5.5%. This is due to investor panic caused by regulatory policy adjustments in some industries. This short-term downward correction is similar to a summer thunderstorm. As the saying goes, a gust of wind doesn't last all morning, and a sudden rain doesn't last all day. The medium-term market trend will be determined by fundamentals, and we remain optimistic about the market in the second half of the year.</p><p><b>3.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601211\">Guotai Junan Securities</a>The market is expected to accumulate momentum and usher in a new era; focus on mid-cap blue-chip stocks and technology growth stocks.</b></p><p>The current fundamentals have not deteriorated substantially, and the micro-market trading structure of some sectors has not reached the threshold. This adjustment is a panic disturbance rather than a systemic risk.</p><p>Meanwhile, with the pressure to stabilize economic growth in the second half of the year and the bottom out of the broad fiscal cycle, the marginal easing of credit expectations will continue to strengthen, and the market capitalization of small and medium-sized enterprises will have ample momentum to improve marginally along with the credit cycle. Overall, with the dissipation of emotional disturbances, coupled with the stabilization of the SSE 50 index and the strong upward momentum of small and mid-cap stocks, the market is expected to accumulate momentum and usher in a new era.</p><p>Industry allocation: Amidst extreme differentiation, technology growth is the top choice, with a focus on second- and third-tier stocks. The extreme structural performance has raised market concerns about a pullback in strong sectors. \"Profitability decides the outcome, not the valuation ratio.\" The boom cycle in technology manufacturing combined with top-down catalysts remains our primary recommended direction. It's inevitable that stock prices will fluctuate at high levels, but it's by no means over.</p><p><b>4.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601901\">Founder Securities</a>Market volatility is expected to increase in August, with chemicals, electronics, and communications being the top choices.</b></p><p>Market volatility will increase in August, and the strong divergence in market styles will continue. Under the combined influence of liquidity environment, earnings trends, valuation levels, and policy guidance, growth is the direction with the least resistance. The core of the growth outperformance lies in changes in liquidity. Since the second quarter, liquidity has been better than expected, with the 10-bond yield continuing to decline after breaking through 3%, and market interest rates remaining at the lower end of the policy rate. The core reason for the easing of liquidity is that central banks around the world are focused on \"stagnation\" rather than \"inflation\". Judging from subsequent developments, the pattern of domestic liquidity being easy to loosen but difficult to tighten has been established.</p><p><b>5. </b><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601878\">Zhejiang Securities</a>Semiconductor companies listed on the ChiNext board are one of the areas with less resistance and can be focused on exploring.</b></p><p>The A-share market has entered a slow bull market era, with significant volatility but a shorter adjustment period. While indices are experiencing a slow bull market, sectoral bull markets are becoming the norm. Therefore, we believe that in the short term, after the market digests the pressure from popular sectors from Monday to Wednesday, it will return to stability and begin a structural bull market. Looking ahead to the second half of the year, with the strength of semiconductor and securities firms, the Shanghai Composite Index is expected to reach new heights.</p><p><b>6.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601162\">TF Securities</a>With declining cash flow and discount rates, we recommend allocating to growth and consumer sectors in August.</b></p><p>Finance, upstream and mid-cycle sectors are more sensitive to cash flow, that is, the level of economic prosperity, while downstream, consumer, and growth sectors are relatively less sensitive. Therefore, when cash flow is rising, allocations should be made to finance, upstream of the cycle, and midstream of the cycle; when cash flow is declining, allocations should be made to downstream of the cycle, consumption, and growth. According to the latest data, the Tianfeng Manufacturing Activity Index declined year-on-year, cash flow declined, and the discount rate declined. The model recommends allocating to growth and consumer sectors in August.</p><p><b>7. Cinda Securities: After the recent adjustment, the market will usher in the best buying opportunity of 2021.</b></p><p>Compared to 2010 and 2013, if macroeconomic expectations remain stable in the next month, the recent stock market correction is more likely to end within a month, with the Wind All A Index likely to see an adjustment of around 10%. From a valuation perspective, the price-to-book ratio of A-shares over the past year has been exactly the same as that of 2016-2017. As long as the overall ROE of listed companies does not show a downward trend, it should be difficult to break through the lower limit of price-to-book ratio in March 2021 and September 2020. The continued improvement in the overall ROE of A-shares is likely to continue until the first half of 2022. After the recent adjustment, the market will usher in the best buying opportunity in 2021.</p><p><b>8.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002926\">Huaxi Securities</a>Market adjustments are a process of risk release; technology growth remains a key focus for investment.</b></p><p>Against the backdrop of intensified external environmental risks and rising pressure to stabilize domestic economic growth, the intensity of macroeconomic policy adjustments may be marginally strengthened in the second half of the year, making it difficult for macroeconomic liquidity to tighten significantly. The recent increase in volatility in A-shares is more due to emotional disturbances. Market adjustments are also a process of risk release and do not currently pose a systemic risk. In terms of style, the \"hard technology\" related industry chain has policy support and is also a direction for mutual funds to adjust their portfolios and increase their allocation. However, the trading structure of popular sectors is crowded, and the related sectors have risen too quickly in the previous period, which may increase volatility in the future. Investors are advised to reasonably reduce their expected returns.</p><p><b>9. Open Source Securities: Waiting for volatility to decrease, no rush to \"buy the dip\"; cyclical value stocks are entering a pricing range.</b></p><p>Last week, major A-share indices stabilized after a significant correction, but there were still considerable differences among various investors. From a volatility perspective, the market is still facing structural risks: volatility has not converged, and historical experience indicates that the opportunity cost of observing at this time is not high. Investors do not need to rush to embrace already crowded popular sectors, or choose to \"buy the dip\" in the core asset class. In addition, the risk of slowdown in some sectors warrants vigilance. Historical experience indicates that some public funds' core assets are at risk of being exited, but this process takes a long time to repeat, and investors should not be overly pessimistic.</p><p><b>10. Yuekai Securities: There is no shortage of incremental funds in the capital market; the current competition still lies in the unclear investment theme.</b></p><p>Judging from market trading enthusiasm, market sentiment has diverged. While market trading volume increased in the second half of July, overall volatility also increased. On the one hand, previously favored stocks experienced a significant correction. On the other hand, high-growth sectors represented by new energy and semiconductors have maintained a relatively sustained enthusiasm for pursuit recently, and institutional funds are relatively determined to switch. There is no shortage of incremental funds in the capital market, but the current competition still lies in the unclear investment theme. The marginal easing of monetary policy is expected to continue, and structural adjustments may be emphasized in the future. The central bank's previous unexpected reserve requirement ratio cut also released the expectation of marginal easing of monetary policy in the second half of the year in advance.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://www.gelonghui.com/p/478478\">格隆汇</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/de0bbe341ac5d74e1a8d74c9ca5de715","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://www.gelonghui.com/p/478478","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2156162952","content_text":"上周，A股市场向下巨幅调整，板块分化严重，半导体、新能源开始发力，上证指数、深证成指、创业板指分别按周收跌4.31%、3.7%、0.86%，科创50指数涨1.77%，两市日均成交额超万亿。而本周将迎来中国7月CPI和美国非农就业报告，又会对市场带来怎样的影响？\n后市市场具体如何演绎，且看最新十大券商策略汇总。\n1. 中信证券：8月A股市场极端分化将接近尾声 配置上建议成长制造和价值消费两手抓\n预计在8月份，A股市场的极端分化将接近尾声，成长和价值将重归均衡，配置上建议成长制造和价值消费两手抓。首先，内外情绪负面共振的高峰已过，投资者前期对行业政策的预期过于悲观，市场过度反应；国内行业政策更重长远，是规范性而非颠覆性的，政策认知纠偏后，投资者情绪将缓慢修复。其次，近期市场资金的羊群效应走向极致，增量资金建仓和存量资金调仓皆集中于成长制造，极端分化下强势板块的流动性虹吸效应明显，8月份受市场流动性整体紧平衡的约束渐强，市场结构将由极端分化重归均衡。最后，8月“弱基本面+强流动性”的宏观预期组合不变，国内经济的短期扰动不改中期向好趋势，Delta变种毒株压制下，欧美经济恢复、群体免疫、货币宽松退出的时点都将后移，信用风险约束下银行间流动性依然宽松。\n配置上，建议在成长制造和价值消费间保持均衡。一方面，建议在成长板块里从高位的赛道转向相对低位的赛道，包括军工、5G、通信设备龙头。另一方面，可以逐步提前左侧布局当下估值调整非常充分的部分消费和医药板块，包括汽车、服务机器人、服装、珠宝饰品、啤酒、次高端白酒、医美等。\n2. 海通证券：市场短期急跌是情绪面波动 仍看好下半年市场\n部分行业监管引起的市场急跌属于短期情绪波动，市场中期趋势取决于基本面。下半年宏观政策偏宽松，上市公司ROE继续回升，估值尚可，市场望重建。盈利增长较快、顺应政策方向的智能制造仍是第一梯队，关注中下游制造业的修复。最近一周市场迎来快速调整，沪深300最大跌幅达到9.8%，累计跌幅5.5%，这是源于部分行业监管政策调控引发投资者恐慌。短期这种下跌调整类似夏天的雷暴雨，所谓飘风不终朝，骤雨不终日，中期市场走势由基本面决定，仍看好下半年市场。\n3. 国泰君安：市场有望蓄势迎新生 把握中盘蓝筹、科技成长\n当前基本面并未发生实质性恶化，部分赛道的微观市场交易结构亦未触及阈值，本次调整属于恐慌情绪扰动，而非系统性风险。\n同时，未来随下半年经济稳增长压力以及广义财政周期的触底反弹，信用预期边际向宽将不断强化，中小市值随信用周期边际改善动力充沛。整体上，随着情绪扰动的消散，叠加上证50企稳+中小市值风格拉升动力充沛，市场有望蓄势迎新生。\n行业配置：极致的分化下，首选科技成长，重点在二三线标的。极致的结构演绎，市场担心强势板块的回调。“盈利决胜负，而非估值比高低”，科技制造的景气周期+自上而下导向催化，仍是我们首要推荐的方向。股价高位波动放大难免，但绝未到结束时。\n4. 方正证券：8月市场波动将加大 首选行业化工、电子、通信\n8月市场波动将加大，市场在风格上的强分化将延续，在流动性环境、业绩趋势、估值水平、政策导向的共同作用下，成长是阻力最小的方向。成长占优的核心在于流动性的变化，二季度以来流动性比预期好，十债利率破3%后继续下行，市场利率持续位于政策利率下沿。流动性宽松的核心原因在于各国央行着眼于“滞”而非“胀”。从后续演绎来看，国内流动性易松难紧的格局已经确立。\n5. 浙商证券：创板中的半导体公司是阻力较小的方向之一 可以重点挖掘\nA股开启慢牛时代，波动较大但调整时间缩短，指数慢牛但分部牛市常态化，因此我们认为：短期来看，周一至周三市场集中消化热门赛道的压力后，将重新回归稳态，开启结构牛市；进一步展望下半年，随着半导体和券商发力，上证有望更上层楼。\n6. 天风证券：现金流下行，折现率下行 建议8月配置成长、消费板块\n金融、周期上游、周期中游对于现金流，也就是经济的景气程度敏感度较高，而周期下游、消费、成长板块则相对敏感度较低。因此在现金流上行时，应当配置金融、周期上游、周期中游，现金流下行时应当配置周期下游、消费、成长。根据最新数据，天风制造业活动指数同比下行，现金流下行，折现率下行，模型建议8月配置成长、消费板块。\n7. 信达证券：近期调整后 市场将会迎来2021年最好的买点\n对比2010和2013年，如果未来1个月宏观预期稳定，则股市近期的调整有较大的概率在一个月以内结束，万得全A指数的调整幅度大概率在10%左右。从估值层面来看，过去1年A股PB的震荡区间和2016-2017年完全一致，只要上市公司整体ROE不出现趋势性下行风险，2021年3月和2020年9月的PB下限应该是很难跌破的。A股整体ROE持续改善的时间大概率会持续到2022年上半年，近期调整后，市场将会迎来2021年最好的买点。\n8. 华西证券：市场调整是风险释放的过程 科技成长仍是配置的重点方向\n在外部环境风险加剧和国内经济稳增长压力上升的背景下，下半年宏观政策调节力度或边际加强，宏观流动性难大幅缩紧。近期A股的波动加剧更多源于情绪面扰动，市场调整也是风险释放的过程，暂不具备系统性风险。风格方面，“硬科技”相关产业链具备政策支持，同时也是公募基金调仓增配方向，但热门赛道交易结构拥挤，且相关板块前期涨幅过快，后市波动或加剧，建议投资者合理降低预期收益。\n9. 开源证券：等波动率降低、不急于“抄底” 周期类价值股正在进入定价区间\n上周A股主要指数在经历较大幅度调整后有所企稳，但各类投资者之间分歧仍较大。从波动率视角看，当前市场仍处于结构性风险之中：波动率并未收敛，历史经验指示此时观望的机会成本不大，投资者不用着急拥抱本已拥挤的热门赛道，或选择“抄底”部分类核心资产。另外，部分板块失速风险值得警惕，历史经验指示部分公募底仓资产有被退出风险，但这一过程反复时间较长，投资者同样不应过度悲观。\n10. 粤开证券：资本市场增量资金不缺 目前的博弈仍是在于投资主线的不明确\n从市场交投热情来看，市场热度出现分化。7月下半月市场成交量放大的同时，整体波动也在加大，一方面是前期抱团股出现大幅调整，另一方面，近期以新能源、半导体为代表的高成长板块仍保持了较为持续的追逐热情，机构资金切换较为坚定。资本市场增量资金不缺，目前的博弈仍是在于投资主线的不明确。货币政策边际宽松有望延续，后续或将重视结构性调整，此前央行超预期降准也提前释放了下半年货币政策边际宽松的预期。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3322,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":140481545,"gmtCreate":1625668800287,"gmtModify":1703746125610,"author":{"id":"3583788765747608","authorId":"3583788765747608","name":"chewgoh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6055bb8e4e84ffecd69fa8239a883344","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583788765747608","authorIdStr":"3583788765747608"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/140481545","repostId":"2149390842","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2149390842","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1625668450,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2149390842?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-07 22:34","market":"fut","language":"zh","title":"Oil prices plummet as the UAE plans to unilaterally sell off oil.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2149390842","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"阿联酋制定了一项新战略：在需求枯竭之前尽可能多地出售原油。","content":"<p>On Wednesday, the price of the main WTI crude oil futures contract fell sharply during trading.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cb2d1234c48fe0de6052894acce79f5f\" tg-width=\"1405\" tg-height=\"873\"></p><p>In terms of news, the the US Dollar Index DXY broke through the previous high of 92.76, reaching a new high since April 6.</p><p>On the other hand, behind the deadlock within OPEC+ regarding whether to increase oil production, a key cartel member—the UAE—has developed a new strategy:<b>Sell as much crude oil as possible before demand dries up.</b>The UAE has the world's largest untapped oil reserves, and this strategy marks the most significant shift in its oil policy in history, breaking with conventional wisdom. After all, the country's government has said for years that it is not worried about not finding buyers for crude oil for a long time to come (thus breaking the sell-off).</p><p>On the supply side, the parties involved in the Iran nuclear deal held multiple rounds of talks in Vienna starting in early April this year, and have not reached a consensus for three months now. With the election of hardline representative Raisi as Iran's new president, wariness towards the United States in the nuclear negotiations will only intensify. The market has repeatedly postponed the date for Iranian crude oil to return to the market, and the road ahead is currently long and arduous, with an uncertain future. The breakdown of OPEC+ negotiations means that subsequent production increase plans have been shelved, which will further exacerbate the global crude oil supply shortage.</p><p>On the demand side, global economic growth is expected to accelerate further, with developed economies continuing to outpace emerging economies in their recovery pace. The World Bank's latest Global Economic Prospect report raised its 2021 global economic growth forecast from 4.1% to 5.6%. With the continuous advancement of vaccination and the reopening of the economy, the demand for road travel in Europe and the United States has been significantly released. Public transportation and commuting in many countries have reached their highest levels since the beginning of last year. The travel index of major Eurozone economies is only about 10% lower than before the pandemic, while the travel activity index in the United States is down 6.5% from before the pandemic. With the lifting of travel restrictions, the consumption of aviation kerosene has greater potential for growth than the demand for land transportation fuel. Goldman Sachs predicts that global demand will reach 96.9 million barrels per day in June and 99.23 million barrels per day in August, further widening the crude oil supply and demand gap.</p><p>In terms of liquidity, the probability of a large-scale change in the monetary policy stance of major economies in the third quarter is low, and money market interest rates will remain low. Leading economic indicators in Europe and the United States have declined, raising market concerns that the economy may enter a stagflationary or deflationary cycle. According to the \"Merrill Lynch clock\" theory, crude oil prices perform well during stagflation periods, and we believe that the risk of deflation is not significant overall.</p>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Oil prices plummet as the UAE plans to unilaterally sell off oil.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nOil prices plummet as the UAE plans to unilaterally sell off oil.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-07 22:34</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>On Wednesday, the price of the main WTI crude oil futures contract fell sharply during trading.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cb2d1234c48fe0de6052894acce79f5f\" tg-width=\"1405\" tg-height=\"873\"></p><p>In terms of news, the the US Dollar Index DXY broke through the previous high of 92.76, reaching a new high since April 6.</p><p>On the other hand, behind the deadlock within OPEC+ regarding whether to increase oil production, a key cartel member—the UAE—has developed a new strategy:<b>Sell as much crude oil as possible before demand dries up.</b>The UAE has the world's largest untapped oil reserves, and this strategy marks the most significant shift in its oil policy in history, breaking with conventional wisdom. After all, the country's government has said for years that it is not worried about not finding buyers for crude oil for a long time to come (thus breaking the sell-off).</p><p>On the supply side, the parties involved in the Iran nuclear deal held multiple rounds of talks in Vienna starting in early April this year, and have not reached a consensus for three months now. With the election of hardline representative Raisi as Iran's new president, wariness towards the United States in the nuclear negotiations will only intensify. The market has repeatedly postponed the date for Iranian crude oil to return to the market, and the road ahead is currently long and arduous, with an uncertain future. The breakdown of OPEC+ negotiations means that subsequent production increase plans have been shelved, which will further exacerbate the global crude oil supply shortage.</p><p>On the demand side, global economic growth is expected to accelerate further, with developed economies continuing to outpace emerging economies in their recovery pace. The World Bank's latest Global Economic Prospect report raised its 2021 global economic growth forecast from 4.1% to 5.6%. With the continuous advancement of vaccination and the reopening of the economy, the demand for road travel in Europe and the United States has been significantly released. Public transportation and commuting in many countries have reached their highest levels since the beginning of last year. The travel index of major Eurozone economies is only about 10% lower than before the pandemic, while the travel activity index in the United States is down 6.5% from before the pandemic. With the lifting of travel restrictions, the consumption of aviation kerosene has greater potential for growth than the demand for land transportation fuel. Goldman Sachs predicts that global demand will reach 96.9 million barrels per day in June and 99.23 million barrels per day in August, further widening the crude oil supply and demand gap.</p><p>In terms of liquidity, the probability of a large-scale change in the monetary policy stance of major economies in the third quarter is low, and money market interest rates will remain low. Leading economic indicators in Europe and the United States have declined, raising market concerns that the economy may enter a stagflationary or deflationary cycle. According to the \"Merrill Lynch clock\" theory, crude oil prices perform well during stagflation periods, and we believe that the risk of deflation is not significant overall.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3634829\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b40d7f90c920f8b2d2d6c0e89575a430","relate_stocks":{"USO":"美国原油ETF"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3634829","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2149390842","content_text":"周三盘中，WTI原油期货主力合约价格直线下跌。\n\n消息面上，美元指数DXY突破前高92.76，创4月6日以来新高。\n另一方面，在OPEC+内部关于是否提高石油产量的僵局背后，一个关键的卡特尔成员——阿联酋制定了一项新战略：在需求枯竭之前尽可能多地出售原油。阿联酋是世界上最大的未开采源油储备国，该国的此项战略，标志着其石油政策正在发生历史上最显著的转变，并正在打破传统观念。毕竟多年来该国政府一直表示，他们并不担心在未来很长一段时间内找不到原油买家（从而击破出售）。\n供应方面，伊核协议相关方今年4月初开始在维也纳举行了多轮会谈，至今已持续三个月仍未达成共识。强硬派代表莱西当选伊朗新总统后，在核谈判中对美国的戒备心只会更加强烈。市场对伊朗原油回归市场的日期已经多次推迟，目前看道阻且长、前景难料。而OPEC+谈判破裂，意味着后续增产计划搁浅，将进一步加剧全球面临原油供应紧张的局面；\n需求方面，全球经济增长有望进一步提速，发达经济体复苏步伐继续领先新兴经济体。世界银行发布的最新一期《全球经济展望》报告，将2021年全球经济增长预期由4.1%上调至5.6%。随着疫苗接种的不断推进和经济的重新开放，欧美道路出行需求得到明显释放。许多国家的公共交通和上班出行都到了去年年初以来的最高水平，其中欧元区各大经济体出行指数仅较疫情前低10%左右，美国出行活动指数较疫情前下降了6.5%。随着出行限制的解除，航空煤油的消费相较于陆上交通燃料需求具有更大的上涨空间。高盛预计6月全球需求达到了9690万桶/天，8月份全球需求将达到9923万桶/天，原油供需缺口将进一步放大。\n流动性方面，三季度主要经济体货币政策立场发生大规模变化的概率较低，货币市场利率仍将保持低位运行态势。欧美经济运行领先指标回落，市场忧虑经济可能进入滞胀或通缩周期。按照“美林时钟”理论，滞涨期原油价格有不错的表现，至于通缩风险我们认为总体而言并不大。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"USO":0.9,"CLmain":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3200,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":140483970,"gmtCreate":1625668748790,"gmtModify":1703746123305,"author":{"id":"3583788765747608","authorId":"3583788765747608","name":"chewgoh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6055bb8e4e84ffecd69fa8239a883344","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583788765747608","authorIdStr":"3583788765747608"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/140483970","repostId":"2149390842","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2586,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":140481545,"gmtCreate":1625668800287,"gmtModify":1703746125610,"author":{"id":"3583788765747608","authorId":"3583788765747608","name":"chewgoh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6055bb8e4e84ffecd69fa8239a883344","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583788765747608","authorIdStr":"3583788765747608"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/140481545","repostId":"2149390842","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3200,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":805811248,"gmtCreate":1627869525384,"gmtModify":1703496847846,"author":{"id":"3583788765747608","authorId":"3583788765747608","name":"chewgoh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6055bb8e4e84ffecd69fa8239a883344","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583788765747608","authorIdStr":"3583788765747608"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/805811248","repostId":"2156162952","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2156162952","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1627863122,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2156162952?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-08-02 08:12","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"Brokerage Strategy: The market is poised for a new generation; focus on mid-cap blue-chip stocks and technology growth stocks.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2156162952","media":"格隆汇","summary":"整体上，随着情绪扰动的消散，叠加上证50企稳+中小市值风格拉升动力充沛，市场有望蓄势迎新生。A股整体ROE持续改善的时间大概率会持续到2022年上半年，近期调整后，市场将会迎来2021年最好的买点。","content":"<p>Last week, the A-share market experienced a sharp downward correction, with significant sector divergence. Semiconductors and new energy began to gain momentum, with the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, and ChiNext Index closing down 4.31%, 3.7%, and 0.86% respectively week-on-week, while the STAR Market 50 Index rose 1.77%. The average daily turnover of the two markets exceeded one trillion yuan. This week will see the release of China's July CPI and the US non-farm payrolls report. What impact will this have on the market?</p><p>How will the market perform in the future? Let's look at the latest summary of strategies from the top ten securities firms.</p><p><b>1.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600030\">CITIC Securities</a>The extreme divergence in the A-share market in August is nearing its end. In terms of allocation, it is recommended to focus on both growth manufacturing and value consumption.</b></p><p>It is expected that the extreme divergence in the A-share market will near its end in August, and growth and value will return to equilibrium. In terms of allocation, it is recommended to focus on both growth manufacturing and value consumption. First, the peak of negative resonance between internal and external sentiment has passed, investors' expectations for industry policies were too pessimistic in the early stages, and the market overreacted. Domestic industry policies are more long-term, normative rather than disruptive. Once policy understanding is corrected, investor sentiment will slowly recover. Secondly, the herd effect of market funds has recently reached its extreme, with new funds building positions and existing funds adjusting positions both concentrated in growth manufacturing. Under the extreme differentiation, the liquidity siphoning effect of strong sectors is obvious. In August, the constraints of the overall tight balance of market liquidity gradually strengthened, and the market structure will return from extreme differentiation to equilibrium. Finally, the macroeconomic expectation combination of \"weak fundamentals + strong liquidity\" remains unchanged in August. Short-term disturbances in the domestic economy will not change the medium-term positive trend. Under the suppression of the Delta variant strain, the timing of economic recovery, herd immunity, and the exit of monetary easing in Europe and the United States will be postponed. Interbank liquidity will remain loose under the constraint of credit risk.</p><p>In terms of allocation, it is recommended to maintain a balance between growth manufacturing and value consumption. On the one hand, it is recommended to shift from high-priced sectors to relatively low-priced sectors within the growth sector, including leading companies in the military, 5G, and communications equipment industries. On the other hand, we can gradually invest in some consumer and pharmaceutical sectors that have undergone significant valuation adjustments, including automobiles and services, in advance.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300024\">Robot</a>Clothing, jewelry, beer, mid-to-high-end liquor, medical aesthetics, etc.</p><p><b>2.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600837\">Haitong Securities</a>The sharp short-term market decline is due to sentiment fluctuations, but we remain optimistic about the market in the second half of the year.</b></p><p>The sharp market decline caused by regulations in some industries is a short-term fluctuation in emotions, and the medium-term trend of the market depends on fundamentals. Macroeconomic policies will be relatively loose in the second half of the year, and the ROE of listed companies will continue to rebound. Valuations are acceptable, and the market is expected to rebuild. Rapid profit growth and in line with policy directions<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/5RE.SI\">smart</a>Manufacturing remains the first tier, and attention should be paid to the recovery of the midstream and downstream manufacturing sectors. The market has experienced a rapid correction in the past week, with the CSI 300 falling by as much as 9.8% and a cumulative decline of 5.5%. This is due to investor panic caused by regulatory policy adjustments in some industries. This short-term downward correction is similar to a summer thunderstorm. As the saying goes, a gust of wind doesn't last all morning, and a sudden rain doesn't last all day. The medium-term market trend will be determined by fundamentals, and we remain optimistic about the market in the second half of the year.</p><p><b>3.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601211\">Guotai Junan Securities</a>The market is expected to accumulate momentum and usher in a new era; focus on mid-cap blue-chip stocks and technology growth stocks.</b></p><p>The current fundamentals have not deteriorated substantially, and the micro-market trading structure of some sectors has not reached the threshold. This adjustment is a panic disturbance rather than a systemic risk.</p><p>Meanwhile, with the pressure to stabilize economic growth in the second half of the year and the bottom out of the broad fiscal cycle, the marginal easing of credit expectations will continue to strengthen, and the market capitalization of small and medium-sized enterprises will have ample momentum to improve marginally along with the credit cycle. Overall, with the dissipation of emotional disturbances, coupled with the stabilization of the SSE 50 index and the strong upward momentum of small and mid-cap stocks, the market is expected to accumulate momentum and usher in a new era.</p><p>Industry allocation: Amidst extreme differentiation, technology growth is the top choice, with a focus on second- and third-tier stocks. The extreme structural performance has raised market concerns about a pullback in strong sectors. \"Profitability decides the outcome, not the valuation ratio.\" The boom cycle in technology manufacturing combined with top-down catalysts remains our primary recommended direction. It's inevitable that stock prices will fluctuate at high levels, but it's by no means over.</p><p><b>4.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601901\">Founder Securities</a>Market volatility is expected to increase in August, with chemicals, electronics, and communications being the top choices.</b></p><p>Market volatility will increase in August, and the strong divergence in market styles will continue. Under the combined influence of liquidity environment, earnings trends, valuation levels, and policy guidance, growth is the direction with the least resistance. The core of the growth outperformance lies in changes in liquidity. Since the second quarter, liquidity has been better than expected, with the 10-bond yield continuing to decline after breaking through 3%, and market interest rates remaining at the lower end of the policy rate. The core reason for the easing of liquidity is that central banks around the world are focused on \"stagnation\" rather than \"inflation\". Judging from subsequent developments, the pattern of domestic liquidity being easy to loosen but difficult to tighten has been established.</p><p><b>5. </b><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601878\">Zhejiang Securities</a>Semiconductor companies listed on the ChiNext board are one of the areas with less resistance and can be focused on exploring.</b></p><p>The A-share market has entered a slow bull market era, with significant volatility but a shorter adjustment period. While indices are experiencing a slow bull market, sectoral bull markets are becoming the norm. Therefore, we believe that in the short term, after the market digests the pressure from popular sectors from Monday to Wednesday, it will return to stability and begin a structural bull market. Looking ahead to the second half of the year, with the strength of semiconductor and securities firms, the Shanghai Composite Index is expected to reach new heights.</p><p><b>6.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601162\">TF Securities</a>With declining cash flow and discount rates, we recommend allocating to growth and consumer sectors in August.</b></p><p>Finance, upstream and mid-cycle sectors are more sensitive to cash flow, that is, the level of economic prosperity, while downstream, consumer, and growth sectors are relatively less sensitive. Therefore, when cash flow is rising, allocations should be made to finance, upstream of the cycle, and midstream of the cycle; when cash flow is declining, allocations should be made to downstream of the cycle, consumption, and growth. According to the latest data, the Tianfeng Manufacturing Activity Index declined year-on-year, cash flow declined, and the discount rate declined. The model recommends allocating to growth and consumer sectors in August.</p><p><b>7. Cinda Securities: After the recent adjustment, the market will usher in the best buying opportunity of 2021.</b></p><p>Compared to 2010 and 2013, if macroeconomic expectations remain stable in the next month, the recent stock market correction is more likely to end within a month, with the Wind All A Index likely to see an adjustment of around 10%. From a valuation perspective, the price-to-book ratio of A-shares over the past year has been exactly the same as that of 2016-2017. As long as the overall ROE of listed companies does not show a downward trend, it should be difficult to break through the lower limit of price-to-book ratio in March 2021 and September 2020. The continued improvement in the overall ROE of A-shares is likely to continue until the first half of 2022. After the recent adjustment, the market will usher in the best buying opportunity in 2021.</p><p><b>8.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002926\">Huaxi Securities</a>Market adjustments are a process of risk release; technology growth remains a key focus for investment.</b></p><p>Against the backdrop of intensified external environmental risks and rising pressure to stabilize domestic economic growth, the intensity of macroeconomic policy adjustments may be marginally strengthened in the second half of the year, making it difficult for macroeconomic liquidity to tighten significantly. The recent increase in volatility in A-shares is more due to emotional disturbances. Market adjustments are also a process of risk release and do not currently pose a systemic risk. In terms of style, the \"hard technology\" related industry chain has policy support and is also a direction for mutual funds to adjust their portfolios and increase their allocation. However, the trading structure of popular sectors is crowded, and the related sectors have risen too quickly in the previous period, which may increase volatility in the future. Investors are advised to reasonably reduce their expected returns.</p><p><b>9. Open Source Securities: Waiting for volatility to decrease, no rush to \"buy the dip\"; cyclical value stocks are entering a pricing range.</b></p><p>Last week, major A-share indices stabilized after a significant correction, but there were still considerable differences among various investors. From a volatility perspective, the market is still facing structural risks: volatility has not converged, and historical experience indicates that the opportunity cost of observing at this time is not high. Investors do not need to rush to embrace already crowded popular sectors, or choose to \"buy the dip\" in the core asset class. In addition, the risk of slowdown in some sectors warrants vigilance. Historical experience indicates that some public funds' core assets are at risk of being exited, but this process takes a long time to repeat, and investors should not be overly pessimistic.</p><p><b>10. Yuekai Securities: There is no shortage of incremental funds in the capital market; the current competition still lies in the unclear investment theme.</b></p><p>Judging from market trading enthusiasm, market sentiment has diverged. While market trading volume increased in the second half of July, overall volatility also increased. On the one hand, previously favored stocks experienced a significant correction. On the other hand, high-growth sectors represented by new energy and semiconductors have maintained a relatively sustained enthusiasm for pursuit recently, and institutional funds are relatively determined to switch. There is no shortage of incremental funds in the capital market, but the current competition still lies in the unclear investment theme. The marginal easing of monetary policy is expected to continue, and structural adjustments may be emphasized in the future. The central bank's previous unexpected reserve requirement ratio cut also released the expectation of marginal easing of monetary policy in the second half of the year in advance.</p>","source":"stock_gelonghui","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Brokerage Strategy: The market is poised for a new generation; focus on mid-cap blue-chip stocks and technology growth stocks.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBrokerage Strategy: The market is poised for a new generation; focus on mid-cap blue-chip stocks and technology growth stocks.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">格隆汇</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-02 08:12</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Last week, the A-share market experienced a sharp downward correction, with significant sector divergence. Semiconductors and new energy began to gain momentum, with the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, and ChiNext Index closing down 4.31%, 3.7%, and 0.86% respectively week-on-week, while the STAR Market 50 Index rose 1.77%. The average daily turnover of the two markets exceeded one trillion yuan. This week will see the release of China's July CPI and the US non-farm payrolls report. What impact will this have on the market?</p><p>How will the market perform in the future? Let's look at the latest summary of strategies from the top ten securities firms.</p><p><b>1.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600030\">CITIC Securities</a>The extreme divergence in the A-share market in August is nearing its end. In terms of allocation, it is recommended to focus on both growth manufacturing and value consumption.</b></p><p>It is expected that the extreme divergence in the A-share market will near its end in August, and growth and value will return to equilibrium. In terms of allocation, it is recommended to focus on both growth manufacturing and value consumption. First, the peak of negative resonance between internal and external sentiment has passed, investors' expectations for industry policies were too pessimistic in the early stages, and the market overreacted. Domestic industry policies are more long-term, normative rather than disruptive. Once policy understanding is corrected, investor sentiment will slowly recover. Secondly, the herd effect of market funds has recently reached its extreme, with new funds building positions and existing funds adjusting positions both concentrated in growth manufacturing. Under the extreme differentiation, the liquidity siphoning effect of strong sectors is obvious. In August, the constraints of the overall tight balance of market liquidity gradually strengthened, and the market structure will return from extreme differentiation to equilibrium. Finally, the macroeconomic expectation combination of \"weak fundamentals + strong liquidity\" remains unchanged in August. Short-term disturbances in the domestic economy will not change the medium-term positive trend. Under the suppression of the Delta variant strain, the timing of economic recovery, herd immunity, and the exit of monetary easing in Europe and the United States will be postponed. Interbank liquidity will remain loose under the constraint of credit risk.</p><p>In terms of allocation, it is recommended to maintain a balance between growth manufacturing and value consumption. On the one hand, it is recommended to shift from high-priced sectors to relatively low-priced sectors within the growth sector, including leading companies in the military, 5G, and communications equipment industries. On the other hand, we can gradually invest in some consumer and pharmaceutical sectors that have undergone significant valuation adjustments, including automobiles and services, in advance.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300024\">Robot</a>Clothing, jewelry, beer, mid-to-high-end liquor, medical aesthetics, etc.</p><p><b>2.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600837\">Haitong Securities</a>The sharp short-term market decline is due to sentiment fluctuations, but we remain optimistic about the market in the second half of the year.</b></p><p>The sharp market decline caused by regulations in some industries is a short-term fluctuation in emotions, and the medium-term trend of the market depends on fundamentals. Macroeconomic policies will be relatively loose in the second half of the year, and the ROE of listed companies will continue to rebound. Valuations are acceptable, and the market is expected to rebuild. Rapid profit growth and in line with policy directions<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/5RE.SI\">smart</a>Manufacturing remains the first tier, and attention should be paid to the recovery of the midstream and downstream manufacturing sectors. The market has experienced a rapid correction in the past week, with the CSI 300 falling by as much as 9.8% and a cumulative decline of 5.5%. This is due to investor panic caused by regulatory policy adjustments in some industries. This short-term downward correction is similar to a summer thunderstorm. As the saying goes, a gust of wind doesn't last all morning, and a sudden rain doesn't last all day. The medium-term market trend will be determined by fundamentals, and we remain optimistic about the market in the second half of the year.</p><p><b>3.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601211\">Guotai Junan Securities</a>The market is expected to accumulate momentum and usher in a new era; focus on mid-cap blue-chip stocks and technology growth stocks.</b></p><p>The current fundamentals have not deteriorated substantially, and the micro-market trading structure of some sectors has not reached the threshold. This adjustment is a panic disturbance rather than a systemic risk.</p><p>Meanwhile, with the pressure to stabilize economic growth in the second half of the year and the bottom out of the broad fiscal cycle, the marginal easing of credit expectations will continue to strengthen, and the market capitalization of small and medium-sized enterprises will have ample momentum to improve marginally along with the credit cycle. Overall, with the dissipation of emotional disturbances, coupled with the stabilization of the SSE 50 index and the strong upward momentum of small and mid-cap stocks, the market is expected to accumulate momentum and usher in a new era.</p><p>Industry allocation: Amidst extreme differentiation, technology growth is the top choice, with a focus on second- and third-tier stocks. The extreme structural performance has raised market concerns about a pullback in strong sectors. \"Profitability decides the outcome, not the valuation ratio.\" The boom cycle in technology manufacturing combined with top-down catalysts remains our primary recommended direction. It's inevitable that stock prices will fluctuate at high levels, but it's by no means over.</p><p><b>4.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601901\">Founder Securities</a>Market volatility is expected to increase in August, with chemicals, electronics, and communications being the top choices.</b></p><p>Market volatility will increase in August, and the strong divergence in market styles will continue. Under the combined influence of liquidity environment, earnings trends, valuation levels, and policy guidance, growth is the direction with the least resistance. The core of the growth outperformance lies in changes in liquidity. Since the second quarter, liquidity has been better than expected, with the 10-bond yield continuing to decline after breaking through 3%, and market interest rates remaining at the lower end of the policy rate. The core reason for the easing of liquidity is that central banks around the world are focused on \"stagnation\" rather than \"inflation\". Judging from subsequent developments, the pattern of domestic liquidity being easy to loosen but difficult to tighten has been established.</p><p><b>5. </b><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601878\">Zhejiang Securities</a>Semiconductor companies listed on the ChiNext board are one of the areas with less resistance and can be focused on exploring.</b></p><p>The A-share market has entered a slow bull market era, with significant volatility but a shorter adjustment period. While indices are experiencing a slow bull market, sectoral bull markets are becoming the norm. Therefore, we believe that in the short term, after the market digests the pressure from popular sectors from Monday to Wednesday, it will return to stability and begin a structural bull market. Looking ahead to the second half of the year, with the strength of semiconductor and securities firms, the Shanghai Composite Index is expected to reach new heights.</p><p><b>6.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601162\">TF Securities</a>With declining cash flow and discount rates, we recommend allocating to growth and consumer sectors in August.</b></p><p>Finance, upstream and mid-cycle sectors are more sensitive to cash flow, that is, the level of economic prosperity, while downstream, consumer, and growth sectors are relatively less sensitive. Therefore, when cash flow is rising, allocations should be made to finance, upstream of the cycle, and midstream of the cycle; when cash flow is declining, allocations should be made to downstream of the cycle, consumption, and growth. According to the latest data, the Tianfeng Manufacturing Activity Index declined year-on-year, cash flow declined, and the discount rate declined. The model recommends allocating to growth and consumer sectors in August.</p><p><b>7. Cinda Securities: After the recent adjustment, the market will usher in the best buying opportunity of 2021.</b></p><p>Compared to 2010 and 2013, if macroeconomic expectations remain stable in the next month, the recent stock market correction is more likely to end within a month, with the Wind All A Index likely to see an adjustment of around 10%. From a valuation perspective, the price-to-book ratio of A-shares over the past year has been exactly the same as that of 2016-2017. As long as the overall ROE of listed companies does not show a downward trend, it should be difficult to break through the lower limit of price-to-book ratio in March 2021 and September 2020. The continued improvement in the overall ROE of A-shares is likely to continue until the first half of 2022. After the recent adjustment, the market will usher in the best buying opportunity in 2021.</p><p><b>8.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002926\">Huaxi Securities</a>Market adjustments are a process of risk release; technology growth remains a key focus for investment.</b></p><p>Against the backdrop of intensified external environmental risks and rising pressure to stabilize domestic economic growth, the intensity of macroeconomic policy adjustments may be marginally strengthened in the second half of the year, making it difficult for macroeconomic liquidity to tighten significantly. The recent increase in volatility in A-shares is more due to emotional disturbances. Market adjustments are also a process of risk release and do not currently pose a systemic risk. In terms of style, the \"hard technology\" related industry chain has policy support and is also a direction for mutual funds to adjust their portfolios and increase their allocation. However, the trading structure of popular sectors is crowded, and the related sectors have risen too quickly in the previous period, which may increase volatility in the future. Investors are advised to reasonably reduce their expected returns.</p><p><b>9. Open Source Securities: Waiting for volatility to decrease, no rush to \"buy the dip\"; cyclical value stocks are entering a pricing range.</b></p><p>Last week, major A-share indices stabilized after a significant correction, but there were still considerable differences among various investors. From a volatility perspective, the market is still facing structural risks: volatility has not converged, and historical experience indicates that the opportunity cost of observing at this time is not high. Investors do not need to rush to embrace already crowded popular sectors, or choose to \"buy the dip\" in the core asset class. In addition, the risk of slowdown in some sectors warrants vigilance. Historical experience indicates that some public funds' core assets are at risk of being exited, but this process takes a long time to repeat, and investors should not be overly pessimistic.</p><p><b>10. Yuekai Securities: There is no shortage of incremental funds in the capital market; the current competition still lies in the unclear investment theme.</b></p><p>Judging from market trading enthusiasm, market sentiment has diverged. While market trading volume increased in the second half of July, overall volatility also increased. On the one hand, previously favored stocks experienced a significant correction. On the other hand, high-growth sectors represented by new energy and semiconductors have maintained a relatively sustained enthusiasm for pursuit recently, and institutional funds are relatively determined to switch. There is no shortage of incremental funds in the capital market, but the current competition still lies in the unclear investment theme. The marginal easing of monetary policy is expected to continue, and structural adjustments may be emphasized in the future. The central bank's previous unexpected reserve requirement ratio cut also released the expectation of marginal easing of monetary policy in the second half of the year in advance.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://www.gelonghui.com/p/478478\">格隆汇</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/de0bbe341ac5d74e1a8d74c9ca5de715","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://www.gelonghui.com/p/478478","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2156162952","content_text":"上周，A股市场向下巨幅调整，板块分化严重，半导体、新能源开始发力，上证指数、深证成指、创业板指分别按周收跌4.31%、3.7%、0.86%，科创50指数涨1.77%，两市日均成交额超万亿。而本周将迎来中国7月CPI和美国非农就业报告，又会对市场带来怎样的影响？\n后市市场具体如何演绎，且看最新十大券商策略汇总。\n1. 中信证券：8月A股市场极端分化将接近尾声 配置上建议成长制造和价值消费两手抓\n预计在8月份，A股市场的极端分化将接近尾声，成长和价值将重归均衡，配置上建议成长制造和价值消费两手抓。首先，内外情绪负面共振的高峰已过，投资者前期对行业政策的预期过于悲观，市场过度反应；国内行业政策更重长远，是规范性而非颠覆性的，政策认知纠偏后，投资者情绪将缓慢修复。其次，近期市场资金的羊群效应走向极致，增量资金建仓和存量资金调仓皆集中于成长制造，极端分化下强势板块的流动性虹吸效应明显，8月份受市场流动性整体紧平衡的约束渐强，市场结构将由极端分化重归均衡。最后，8月“弱基本面+强流动性”的宏观预期组合不变，国内经济的短期扰动不改中期向好趋势，Delta变种毒株压制下，欧美经济恢复、群体免疫、货币宽松退出的时点都将后移，信用风险约束下银行间流动性依然宽松。\n配置上，建议在成长制造和价值消费间保持均衡。一方面，建议在成长板块里从高位的赛道转向相对低位的赛道，包括军工、5G、通信设备龙头。另一方面，可以逐步提前左侧布局当下估值调整非常充分的部分消费和医药板块，包括汽车、服务机器人、服装、珠宝饰品、啤酒、次高端白酒、医美等。\n2. 海通证券：市场短期急跌是情绪面波动 仍看好下半年市场\n部分行业监管引起的市场急跌属于短期情绪波动，市场中期趋势取决于基本面。下半年宏观政策偏宽松，上市公司ROE继续回升，估值尚可，市场望重建。盈利增长较快、顺应政策方向的智能制造仍是第一梯队，关注中下游制造业的修复。最近一周市场迎来快速调整，沪深300最大跌幅达到9.8%，累计跌幅5.5%，这是源于部分行业监管政策调控引发投资者恐慌。短期这种下跌调整类似夏天的雷暴雨，所谓飘风不终朝，骤雨不终日，中期市场走势由基本面决定，仍看好下半年市场。\n3. 国泰君安：市场有望蓄势迎新生 把握中盘蓝筹、科技成长\n当前基本面并未发生实质性恶化，部分赛道的微观市场交易结构亦未触及阈值，本次调整属于恐慌情绪扰动，而非系统性风险。\n同时，未来随下半年经济稳增长压力以及广义财政周期的触底反弹，信用预期边际向宽将不断强化，中小市值随信用周期边际改善动力充沛。整体上，随着情绪扰动的消散，叠加上证50企稳+中小市值风格拉升动力充沛，市场有望蓄势迎新生。\n行业配置：极致的分化下，首选科技成长，重点在二三线标的。极致的结构演绎，市场担心强势板块的回调。“盈利决胜负，而非估值比高低”，科技制造的景气周期+自上而下导向催化，仍是我们首要推荐的方向。股价高位波动放大难免，但绝未到结束时。\n4. 方正证券：8月市场波动将加大 首选行业化工、电子、通信\n8月市场波动将加大，市场在风格上的强分化将延续，在流动性环境、业绩趋势、估值水平、政策导向的共同作用下，成长是阻力最小的方向。成长占优的核心在于流动性的变化，二季度以来流动性比预期好，十债利率破3%后继续下行，市场利率持续位于政策利率下沿。流动性宽松的核心原因在于各国央行着眼于“滞”而非“胀”。从后续演绎来看，国内流动性易松难紧的格局已经确立。\n5. 浙商证券：创板中的半导体公司是阻力较小的方向之一 可以重点挖掘\nA股开启慢牛时代，波动较大但调整时间缩短，指数慢牛但分部牛市常态化，因此我们认为：短期来看，周一至周三市场集中消化热门赛道的压力后，将重新回归稳态，开启结构牛市；进一步展望下半年，随着半导体和券商发力，上证有望更上层楼。\n6. 天风证券：现金流下行，折现率下行 建议8月配置成长、消费板块\n金融、周期上游、周期中游对于现金流，也就是经济的景气程度敏感度较高，而周期下游、消费、成长板块则相对敏感度较低。因此在现金流上行时，应当配置金融、周期上游、周期中游，现金流下行时应当配置周期下游、消费、成长。根据最新数据，天风制造业活动指数同比下行，现金流下行，折现率下行，模型建议8月配置成长、消费板块。\n7. 信达证券：近期调整后 市场将会迎来2021年最好的买点\n对比2010和2013年，如果未来1个月宏观预期稳定，则股市近期的调整有较大的概率在一个月以内结束，万得全A指数的调整幅度大概率在10%左右。从估值层面来看，过去1年A股PB的震荡区间和2016-2017年完全一致，只要上市公司整体ROE不出现趋势性下行风险，2021年3月和2020年9月的PB下限应该是很难跌破的。A股整体ROE持续改善的时间大概率会持续到2022年上半年，近期调整后，市场将会迎来2021年最好的买点。\n8. 华西证券：市场调整是风险释放的过程 科技成长仍是配置的重点方向\n在外部环境风险加剧和国内经济稳增长压力上升的背景下，下半年宏观政策调节力度或边际加强，宏观流动性难大幅缩紧。近期A股的波动加剧更多源于情绪面扰动，市场调整也是风险释放的过程，暂不具备系统性风险。风格方面，“硬科技”相关产业链具备政策支持，同时也是公募基金调仓增配方向，但热门赛道交易结构拥挤，且相关板块前期涨幅过快，后市波动或加剧，建议投资者合理降低预期收益。\n9. 开源证券：等波动率降低、不急于“抄底” 周期类价值股正在进入定价区间\n上周A股主要指数在经历较大幅度调整后有所企稳，但各类投资者之间分歧仍较大。从波动率视角看，当前市场仍处于结构性风险之中：波动率并未收敛，历史经验指示此时观望的机会成本不大，投资者不用着急拥抱本已拥挤的热门赛道，或选择“抄底”部分类核心资产。另外，部分板块失速风险值得警惕，历史经验指示部分公募底仓资产有被退出风险，但这一过程反复时间较长，投资者同样不应过度悲观。\n10. 粤开证券：资本市场增量资金不缺 目前的博弈仍是在于投资主线的不明确\n从市场交投热情来看，市场热度出现分化。7月下半月市场成交量放大的同时，整体波动也在加大，一方面是前期抱团股出现大幅调整，另一方面，近期以新能源、半导体为代表的高成长板块仍保持了较为持续的追逐热情，机构资金切换较为坚定。资本市场增量资金不缺，目前的博弈仍是在于投资主线的不明确。货币政策边际宽松有望延续，后续或将重视结构性调整，此前央行超预期降准也提前释放了下半年货币政策边际宽松的预期。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3322,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":140483970,"gmtCreate":1625668748790,"gmtModify":1703746123305,"author":{"id":"3583788765747608","authorId":"3583788765747608","name":"chewgoh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6055bb8e4e84ffecd69fa8239a883344","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583788765747608","authorIdStr":"3583788765747608"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/140483970","repostId":"2149390842","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2586,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}
