TanTH personal page - To The Moon

TanTH

TanTH

No personal profile

271Follow

6Followers

0Topic

0Badge

2022-01-24

$Exela Technologies, Inc.(XELA)$😭😢😅😂

2022-01-06

$ContextLogic Inc.(WISH)$ 2022 discount

2021-08-06

Good

Sorry, the original content has been removed

2021-09-02

Good

Popular Chinese concept stocks rallied collectively during trading, with Pinduoduo gaining nearly 9%.

2021-08-01

Good

China Evergrande: Sells 11% stake in Hengten Networks for HK$3.25 billion

2021-08-01

?

Sorry, the original content has been removed

2022-03-15

Good

The market can turn against each other at will, with US Treasury prices fluctuating wildly between a rebound and a sharp drop.

2021-08-31

Good

XPeng Automotive: Total revenue in the first half of the year was 6.712 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 569.3%.

2021-08-31

Good

91-year-old Warren Buffett: Still navigating cycles, value investing will not fall from its pedestal.

2021-08-24

Good

A multi-headed carnival! Is the Federal Reserve in a dilemma? The US dollar plummeted, triggering a "chorus of gains" in financial markets.

Go to Tiger App to see more news

{"i18n":{"language":"en_US"},"userPageInfo":{"id":"3586167248367118","uuid":"3586167248367118","gmtCreate":1623073623002,"gmtModify":1623896344578,"name":"TanTH","pinyin":"tanth","introduction":"","introductionEn":"","signature":"","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f9317bf33bd64e46c21c589d7bac5157","hat":null,"hatId":null,"hatName":null,"vip":1,"status":2,"fanSize":6,"headSize":271,"tweetSize":71,"questionSize":0,"limitLevel":999,"accountStatus":4,"level":{"id":3,"name":"书生虎","nameTw":"書生虎","represent":"努力向上","factor":"发布10条非转发主帖,其中5条获得他人回复或点赞","iconColor":"3C9E83","bgColor":"A2F1D9"},"themeCounts":0,"badgeCounts":0,"badges":[],"moderator":false,"superModerator":false,"manageSymbols":null,"badgeLevel":null,"boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"favoriteSize":0,"symbols":null,"coverImage":null,"realNameVerified":"success","userBadges":[{"badgeId":"1026c425416b44e0aac28c11a0848493-3","templateUuid":"1026c425416b44e0aac28c11a0848493","name":" Tiger Idol","description":"Join the tiger community for 1500 days","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8b40ae7da5bf081a1c84df14bf9e6367","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f160eceddd7c284a8e1136557615cfad","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/11792805c468334a9b31c39f95a41c6a","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLinkType":null,"redirectLink":null,"redirectLinkValidityFrom":null,"redirectLinkValidityTo":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2025.07.17","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1001,"isScarce":0,"effectEnabled":0,"plateImgUrl":null,"plateColors":null,"validityTo":null,"validityToTimestamp":null,"wearingSort":0},{"badgeId":"44212b71d0be4ec88898348dbe882e03-1","templateUuid":"44212b71d0be4ec88898348dbe882e03","name":"Boss Tiger","description":"The transaction amount of the securities account reaches $100,000","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c8dfc27c1ee0e25db1c93e9d0b641101","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f43908c142f8a33c78f5bdf0e2897488","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/82165ff19cb8a786e8919f92acee5213","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLinkType":null,"redirectLink":null,"redirectLinkValidityFrom":null,"redirectLinkValidityTo":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2023.07.14","exceedPercentage":"60.16%","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1101,"isScarce":0,"effectEnabled":0,"plateImgUrl":null,"plateColors":null,"validityTo":null,"validityToTimestamp":null,"wearingSort":0},{"badgeId":"cbe1c45c584340f3bd9ae6c77e0e9981-1","templateUuid":"cbe1c45c584340f3bd9ae6c77e0e9981","name":"Academy Experiencer","description":"5 lessons learned","bigImgUrl":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/fb5ae275631fb96a92d475cdc85d2302","smallImgUrl":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/c2660a1935bd2105e97c9915619936c3","grayImgUrl":null,"redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLinkType":null,"redirectLink":null,"redirectLinkValidityFrom":null,"redirectLinkValidityTo":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2022.08.06","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":2006,"isScarce":0,"effectEnabled":0,"plateImgUrl":null,"plateColors":null,"validityTo":null,"validityToTimestamp":null,"wearingSort":0},{"badgeId":"7a9f168ff73447fe856ed6c938b61789-1","templateUuid":"7a9f168ff73447fe856ed6c938b61789","name":"Knowledgeable Investor","description":"Traded more than 10 stocks","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e74cc24115c4fbae6154ec1b1041bf47","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d48265cbfd97c57f9048db29f22227b0","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/76c6d6898b073c77e1c537ebe9ac1c57","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLinkType":null,"redirectLink":null,"redirectLinkValidityFrom":null,"redirectLinkValidityTo":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2021.12.29","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1102,"isScarce":0,"effectEnabled":0,"plateImgUrl":null,"plateColors":null,"validityTo":null,"validityToTimestamp":null,"wearingSort":0},{"badgeId":"972123088c9646f7b6091ae0662215be-2","templateUuid":"972123088c9646f7b6091ae0662215be","name":"Master Trader","description":"Total number of securities or futures transactions reached 100","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ad22cfbe2d05aa393b18e9226e4b0307","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/36702e6ff3ffe46acafee66cc85273ca","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d52eb88fa385cf5abe2616ed63781765","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLinkType":null,"redirectLink":null,"redirectLinkValidityFrom":null,"redirectLinkValidityTo":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2021.12.29","exceedPercentage":"80.78%","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1100,"isScarce":0,"effectEnabled":0,"plateImgUrl":null,"plateColors":null,"validityTo":null,"validityToTimestamp":null,"wearingSort":0},{"badgeId":"a83d7582f45846ffbccbce770ce65d84-1","templateUuid":"a83d7582f45846ffbccbce770ce65d84","name":"Real Trader","description":"Completed a transaction","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e08a1cc2087a1de93402c2c290fa65b","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4504a6397ce1137932d56e5f4ce27166","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b22c79415b4cd6e3d8ebc4a0fa32604","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLinkType":null,"redirectLink":null,"redirectLinkValidityFrom":null,"redirectLinkValidityTo":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2021.12.21","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1100,"isScarce":0,"effectEnabled":0,"plateImgUrl":null,"plateColors":null,"validityTo":null,"validityToTimestamp":null,"wearingSort":0}],"userBadgeCount":6,"currentWearingBadge":null,"individualDisplayBadges":null,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"location":null,"starInvestorFollowerNum":0,"starInvestorFlag":false,"starInvestorOrderShareNum":0,"subscribeStarInvestorNum":0,"ror":null,"winRationPercentage":null,"showRor":false,"investmentPhilosophy":null,"starInvestorSubscribeFlag":false},"baikeInfo":{},"tab":"hot","tweets":[{"id":9032389283,"gmtCreate":1647290887017,"gmtModify":1676534211501,"author":{"id":"3586167248367118","authorId":"3586167248367118","name":"TanTH","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f9317bf33bd64e46c21c589d7bac5157","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586167248367118","idStr":"3586167248367118"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Good&nbsp;","listText":"Good&nbsp;","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9032389283","repostId":"1178901868","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1178901868","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"港股挖掘机将每天为您推送最具价值的港股、美股、A股投资资讯！第一时间把握全球政策动向，先人一步了解主流资金流向，监测主力行踪，解读公司公告，追踪活跃个股，让您畅享投资财富盛宴!","home_visible":1,"media_name":"智通财经APP","id":"12","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/361f7f1ca0d64e919035653d64c723ab"},"pubTimestamp":1647270835,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1178901868?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-03-14 23:13","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"The market can turn against each other at will, with US Treasury prices fluctuating wildly between a rebound and a sharp drop.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1178901868","media":"智通财经APP","summary":"全球最大债券市场——美国国债市场近期的剧烈波动性，令试图同时押注紧缩性全球货币政策和俄乌冲突引发大宗商品价格冲击进而刺激避险需求的交易员面临巨大挑战，而后者(大宗商品价格冲击)正引发市场对类似“上世纪","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>The recent volatility in the Treasury Bond market, the world's largest bond market, poses a significant challenge to traders attempting to simultaneously bet on tightening global monetary policy and the Russia-Ukraine conflict triggering commodity price shocks, thereby stimulating safe-haven demand.<b>The latter (commodity price shocks) is raising market concerns about something similar to \"1970s-style stagflation\".</b></p><p>Since Russia's invasion of Ukraine, U.S. Treasury Bond prices have risen sharply, yields have been declining, and safe-haven investors have been buying one of the safest assets, which is widely considered one of the safest assets. At the same time, bond investors have been rushing to buy U.S. Treasuries to avoid missing buying opportunities when prices rise in the future.</p><p>Zhitong Finance APP observed that the situation seemed to have reversed last week. As concerns that inflation had not yet peaked once again became the focus of the bond market, safe-haven buying of US Treasury bonds gradually withdrew, and the yield on two-year US Treasury bonds surged to its highest point in two years. With the Consumer Price Index (CPI) surging and likely not yet peaking, the Federal Reserve is highly likely to begin its rate hike cycle on Wednesday, Eastern Time.<b>Today, 10-year US Treasury bonds were once again heavily sold off, with yields once reaching 2.10%, the highest level since July 2019.</b>On March 9th, the intraday yield on the 10-year US Treasury bond fell as low as 1.837% before closing at a high of 1.958%. On March 10th, the intraday yield fell as low as 1.913% before closing at a high of 2.021%. A similar scenario unfolded almost every day last week. Should we continue betting? Traders were \"incredibly conflicted\".</p><p>The previous sharp fluctuations presented traders with a dilemma: after selling US Treasury bonds to take profits and flee, although everyone currently has a large amount of money on hand, those who bet incorrectly will face heavy consequences—in such a rapidly changing investment environment, there seems to be sufficient reason to make bullish or bearish predictions. This back-and-forth tug-of-war has brought the widely watched U.S. Treasury Bond implied price volatility indicator to its highest level since the early collapse of the COVID-19 pandemic in March 2020 or the 2008 financial crisis.</p><p>Faced with this situation, some hedge funds have been proceeding cautiously to avoid suffering losses due to erroneous bets, deleveraging, and liquidation. Long-term investors have increased their bets on long-term US Treasury bonds (maturities of 10 years or more), believing that long-term US Treasury bonds will perform better as the US economic growth outlook bleaks.</p><p>Meanwhile, investors with smaller assets have been pouring their cash into actively managed ETFs focused on short-term bonds to weather the economic slowdown, a trend that has been widespread since the beginning of the year, according to data.</p><p>John Brady, managing director of Chicago-based futures brokerage firm RJ O'Brien, said:<b>There is no doubt that this is a market for short-term traders.</b>He pointed out that with interest rates near zero over the past two years, long-term investors have failed to seize the opportunities presented by interest rate differentials.</p><p><b>Volatility in the US Treasury Bond market has increased dramatically.</b></p><p>This volatility reflects broader market volatility, as investors are assessing the impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict on the global economy, causing sharp fluctuations in the stock, bond, and foreign exchange markets simultaneously. This creates opportunities for quick-thinking traders.<b>However, this also brings the risk of \"taking the wrong side\" in the changing trend.</b></p><p>Citigroup strategist William O'Donnell said that since the escalation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the movement of the U.S. Treasury Bond market has been the biggest value-at-risk (VAR) shock for \"hedge funds and hot money accounts\" since March 2020. He stated that Citigroup's metrics show that trading volume in the U.S. Treasury Bond market has declined from a high level. \"At the time, there was a view that this was a good profit opportunity, but now there is a sentiment that we should be down-to-earth and reduce trading volume.\"</p><p>It is worth noting that last week, the U.S. banking industry pointed out that some usually popular transactions have recently begun to shrink significantly amid expectations that the Federal Reserve will rate hike multiple times this year. Bank of America stated that the decline in trading volume indicates that the market faces uncertainty in the short term, which is clearly reflected in the potential surge in volatility, and pointed out that implied volatility across the entire yield curve has increased significantly.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/175c1f979b85ff0a47e5f77cc1b012d9\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"608\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Bank of America noted that on Tuesday, the ICE BofA MOVE Index, which tracks traders' expectations of volatility in the U.S. bond market, hit 140.03 points, its highest level since March 2020.</p><p>Treasury Bond in the United States experienced its worst week in the past 10 years, losing the equivalent of the entire interest payment of the past year in five days. The U.S. Treasury Bond Index has fallen 3.8% this year, exceeding any full-year decline recorded by Bloomberg data since 1973.</p><p><b>Economic recession expectations</b></p><p>Since last month, soaring commodity prices have intensified market expectations of a slowdown in economic growth, with concerns that economic growth will slow as interest rates rise. Some traders even believe that \"signs of stagflation\" are already very evident.<b>This further stimulated the already strong so-called \"flattening trading demand\".</b>This means betting that as the economic growth outlook dims, short-term yields will rise more sharply than long-term yields. On March 7, the spread between the two-year and 10-year U.S. Treasury yields narrowed to just 19 basis points, the smallest spread since the COVID-19 pandemic brought the U.S. economy to a standstill in March 2020.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3916710126c4e65b0d5170ae90640dfa\" tg-width=\"784\" tg-height=\"418\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>However, as traders try to determine whether they have the courage to bet on a flattening trend, long-term investors are focusing on protecting their assets from the risks of a growing downtrend. Citigroup strategist O'Donnell said that some pension funds and insurance companies are focusing their capital flows on options to buy 10-30 year U.S. Treasury bonds. If the U.S. economy slows significantly next year and yields fall from current levels, these option holders will profit.</p><p>Western Asset fund manager Molly Schwartz said the company has begun shifting one of its main funds more towards longer-term bonds. As of the end of last year, the company had nearly $500 billion in assets under management. Schwartz said, \"We are moving some of our front-end exposure above the yield curve.\"</p><p>Some analysts believe that rising yields offer some benefits to individual investors, allowing them to reinvest interest and principal in higher-yielding bonds.</p><p><b>Actively managed bond funds are popular with investors.</b></p><p>Todd Rosenbluth, head of ETF and mutual fund Research at CFRA Research, said that this volatility also appears to have increased investor interest in some ETFs.<b>These funds seek to actively manage market risk and focus on short-term US Treasury bonds.</b>He mentioned the capital inflows into related products of large financial institutions such as Pacific Investment Management and JPMorgan Chase this year.</p><p>Rosenbluth stated, \"Historically, investors have been willing to believe that actively managed bond fund managers can weather market uncertainty by seeking lower-risk additional returns.\" \"Understandably, this year's capital flows provide some protection against expectations of rising interest rates compared to last year, when fixed-income ETFs faced higher risk.\"</p><p>For investors who have maintained a defensive stance and low levels of interest rate risk exposure, rising yields may offer an opportunity to return to the market.</p><p>Jack Ablin, Chief Investment Officer of Cresset Capital, said: “We have a short holding period and are trying to return to a neutral level, so in our view, a 2% level for any asset over 10 years is a reasonable value for us.”</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The market can turn against each other at will, with US Treasury prices fluctuating wildly between a rebound and a sharp drop.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe market can turn against each other at will, with US Treasury prices fluctuating wildly between a rebound and a sharp drop.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/12\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/361f7f1ca0d64e919035653d64c723ab);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">智通财经APP </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-03-14 23:13</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>The recent volatility in the Treasury Bond market, the world's largest bond market, poses a significant challenge to traders attempting to simultaneously bet on tightening global monetary policy and the Russia-Ukraine conflict triggering commodity price shocks, thereby stimulating safe-haven demand.<b>The latter (commodity price shocks) is raising market concerns about something similar to \"1970s-style stagflation\".</b></p><p>Since Russia's invasion of Ukraine, U.S. Treasury Bond prices have risen sharply, yields have been declining, and safe-haven investors have been buying one of the safest assets, which is widely considered one of the safest assets. At the same time, bond investors have been rushing to buy U.S. Treasuries to avoid missing buying opportunities when prices rise in the future.</p><p>Zhitong Finance APP observed that the situation seemed to have reversed last week. As concerns that inflation had not yet peaked once again became the focus of the bond market, safe-haven buying of US Treasury bonds gradually withdrew, and the yield on two-year US Treasury bonds surged to its highest point in two years. With the Consumer Price Index (CPI) surging and likely not yet peaking, the Federal Reserve is highly likely to begin its rate hike cycle on Wednesday, Eastern Time.<b>Today, 10-year US Treasury bonds were once again heavily sold off, with yields once reaching 2.10%, the highest level since July 2019.</b>On March 9th, the intraday yield on the 10-year US Treasury bond fell as low as 1.837% before closing at a high of 1.958%. On March 10th, the intraday yield fell as low as 1.913% before closing at a high of 2.021%. A similar scenario unfolded almost every day last week. Should we continue betting? Traders were \"incredibly conflicted\".</p><p>The previous sharp fluctuations presented traders with a dilemma: after selling US Treasury bonds to take profits and flee, although everyone currently has a large amount of money on hand, those who bet incorrectly will face heavy consequences—in such a rapidly changing investment environment, there seems to be sufficient reason to make bullish or bearish predictions. This back-and-forth tug-of-war has brought the widely watched U.S. Treasury Bond implied price volatility indicator to its highest level since the early collapse of the COVID-19 pandemic in March 2020 or the 2008 financial crisis.</p><p>Faced with this situation, some hedge funds have been proceeding cautiously to avoid suffering losses due to erroneous bets, deleveraging, and liquidation. Long-term investors have increased their bets on long-term US Treasury bonds (maturities of 10 years or more), believing that long-term US Treasury bonds will perform better as the US economic growth outlook bleaks.</p><p>Meanwhile, investors with smaller assets have been pouring their cash into actively managed ETFs focused on short-term bonds to weather the economic slowdown, a trend that has been widespread since the beginning of the year, according to data.</p><p>John Brady, managing director of Chicago-based futures brokerage firm RJ O'Brien, said:<b>There is no doubt that this is a market for short-term traders.</b>He pointed out that with interest rates near zero over the past two years, long-term investors have failed to seize the opportunities presented by interest rate differentials.</p><p><b>Volatility in the US Treasury Bond market has increased dramatically.</b></p><p>This volatility reflects broader market volatility, as investors are assessing the impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict on the global economy, causing sharp fluctuations in the stock, bond, and foreign exchange markets simultaneously. This creates opportunities for quick-thinking traders.<b>However, this also brings the risk of \"taking the wrong side\" in the changing trend.</b></p><p>Citigroup strategist William O'Donnell said that since the escalation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the movement of the U.S. Treasury Bond market has been the biggest value-at-risk (VAR) shock for \"hedge funds and hot money accounts\" since March 2020. He stated that Citigroup's metrics show that trading volume in the U.S. Treasury Bond market has declined from a high level. \"At the time, there was a view that this was a good profit opportunity, but now there is a sentiment that we should be down-to-earth and reduce trading volume.\"</p><p>It is worth noting that last week, the U.S. banking industry pointed out that some usually popular transactions have recently begun to shrink significantly amid expectations that the Federal Reserve will rate hike multiple times this year. Bank of America stated that the decline in trading volume indicates that the market faces uncertainty in the short term, which is clearly reflected in the potential surge in volatility, and pointed out that implied volatility across the entire yield curve has increased significantly.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/175c1f979b85ff0a47e5f77cc1b012d9\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"608\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Bank of America noted that on Tuesday, the ICE BofA MOVE Index, which tracks traders' expectations of volatility in the U.S. bond market, hit 140.03 points, its highest level since March 2020.</p><p>Treasury Bond in the United States experienced its worst week in the past 10 years, losing the equivalent of the entire interest payment of the past year in five days. The U.S. Treasury Bond Index has fallen 3.8% this year, exceeding any full-year decline recorded by Bloomberg data since 1973.</p><p><b>Economic recession expectations</b></p><p>Since last month, soaring commodity prices have intensified market expectations of a slowdown in economic growth, with concerns that economic growth will slow as interest rates rise. Some traders even believe that \"signs of stagflation\" are already very evident.<b>This further stimulated the already strong so-called \"flattening trading demand\".</b>This means betting that as the economic growth outlook dims, short-term yields will rise more sharply than long-term yields. On March 7, the spread between the two-year and 10-year U.S. Treasury yields narrowed to just 19 basis points, the smallest spread since the COVID-19 pandemic brought the U.S. economy to a standstill in March 2020.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3916710126c4e65b0d5170ae90640dfa\" tg-width=\"784\" tg-height=\"418\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>However, as traders try to determine whether they have the courage to bet on a flattening trend, long-term investors are focusing on protecting their assets from the risks of a growing downtrend. Citigroup strategist O'Donnell said that some pension funds and insurance companies are focusing their capital flows on options to buy 10-30 year U.S. Treasury bonds. If the U.S. economy slows significantly next year and yields fall from current levels, these option holders will profit.</p><p>Western Asset fund manager Molly Schwartz said the company has begun shifting one of its main funds more towards longer-term bonds. As of the end of last year, the company had nearly $500 billion in assets under management. Schwartz said, \"We are moving some of our front-end exposure above the yield curve.\"</p><p>Some analysts believe that rising yields offer some benefits to individual investors, allowing them to reinvest interest and principal in higher-yielding bonds.</p><p><b>Actively managed bond funds are popular with investors.</b></p><p>Todd Rosenbluth, head of ETF and mutual fund Research at CFRA Research, said that this volatility also appears to have increased investor interest in some ETFs.<b>These funds seek to actively manage market risk and focus on short-term US Treasury bonds.</b>He mentioned the capital inflows into related products of large financial institutions such as Pacific Investment Management and JPMorgan Chase this year.</p><p>Rosenbluth stated, \"Historically, investors have been willing to believe that actively managed bond fund managers can weather market uncertainty by seeking lower-risk additional returns.\" \"Understandably, this year's capital flows provide some protection against expectations of rising interest rates compared to last year, when fixed-income ETFs faced higher risk.\"</p><p>For investors who have maintained a defensive stance and low levels of interest rate risk exposure, rising yields may offer an opportunity to return to the market.</p><p>Jack Ablin, Chief Investment Officer of Cresset Capital, said: “We have a short holding period and are trying to return to a neutral level, so in our view, a 2% level for any asset over 10 years is a reasonable value for us.”</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fd680cd945fd32917c8ece66ec685e5f","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1178901868","content_text":"全球最大债券市场——美国国债市场近期的剧烈波动性，令试图同时押注紧缩性全球货币政策和俄乌冲突引发大宗商品价格冲击进而刺激避险需求的交易员面临巨大挑战，而后者(大宗商品价格冲击)正引发市场对类似“上世纪70年代式滞胀”的担忧。自俄罗斯出兵乌克兰之后，美国国债价格大幅上涨，收益率不断下滑，避险投资者纷纷买入这一普遍认为最安全的资产之一，同时引发债券投资者争相购买美债，以避免未来价格攀升时错过买点。智通财经APP观察到，在上周，情形似乎出现了反转，随着对通胀率仍未见顶担忧再度成为债市焦点，美债避险买盘逐渐退场，两年期美债收益率飙升至两年来最高点。随着消费者价格指数(CPI)大幅飙升且可能仍未见顶，显示美联储极大概率于美东时间周三开始加息周期。而在今天，10年期美债再次被大幅抛售，收益率一度达到2.10%，创2019年7月以来的最高水平。在3月9日，10年期美债日内收益率一度低至1.837%，最后以1.958%高点收盘，在3月10日日内收益率一度低至1.913%，最后以2.021%高点收盘，在上周几乎每天都在上演类似的剧情，究竟该不该继续押注?交易员们“纠结无比”。此前剧烈的波动给交易员们带来了一个难题:抛售美债实现获利出逃之后，尽管目前大家手头上拥有大量资金，但押注错误的人将面临惨重代价——在变化如此迅速的投资环境之中，做出看涨或看跌预判似乎都有足够的理由。这种来回拉扯使得广受关注的美国国债隐含价格波动性指标达到了自2020年3月新冠疫情初期崩盘，或2008年金融危机之后的最高水平。面对这种情况，一些对冲基金一直在谨慎行事，以避免因错误的押注、去杠杆化和平仓而蒙受亏损。长线投资者加大了对长端美债(10年期以上)的押注，认为随着美国经济增长前景黯淡，长端美债将会有更好的表现。与此同时，资产规模较小的投资者一直在向一些专注于短端债券的主动管理型ETF基金投入手头上的现金，以过渡经济增长放缓时期，有数据显示这一趋势自年初以来一直很普遍。芝加哥期货经纪公司RJ O’Brien董事总经理John Brady表示：“毫无疑问，这是一个属于短期交易者的市场。”他指出，在过去两年接近零利率的情况下，长期投资者没有抓住利差带来的机会。美国国债市场波动性剧增这一波动性反映了更广泛的市场波动，因为此时投资者正评估俄乌冲突对全球经济带来的影响，导致股市、债市和外汇市场同时出现剧烈波动。这为思维敏捷的交易员带来了机会，但也带来了在趋势转变中“站错边”的风险。花旗集团策略师William O’Donnell表示，自俄乌冲突升级以来，美国国债市场的走势对“对冲基金和热钱账户”来说是2020年3月以来最大的风险价值(VAR)冲击。他表示，花旗的衡量指标显示，美国国债市场的成交量已从较高水平下降，“当时有一种观点认为，这是一个不错的获利机会，而现在有一种情绪，认为我们应该脚踏实地，减少交易规模。”值得注意的是，在上周，美国银行业曾指出，在美联储今年将多次加息的预期下，一些往常较热门的交易近期开始大幅缩减。美银表示，交易量下滑代表着市场在短期内面临不确定性，而这明显体现在潜在的波动性剧增上，并指出整条收益率曲线上的隐含波动率均大幅上升。美银指出，在上周二，追踪交易员对美国债券市场波动预期的ICE美国银行移动指数(BofA MOVE Index)触及140.03点，为2020年3月以来的最高水平。美国国债经历了过去10年中最糟糕的一周，在5天内损失的价值相当于过去一年的全部利息支付。美国国债指数今年下跌了3.8%，超过了自1973年以来Bloomberg data有记录的任何全年跌幅。经济衰退预期自上个月以来，大宗商品价格飙升使得市场对于经济增长放缓的预期越来越强烈，市场担心在利率上升之际经济增长速度将放缓，甚至有交易员认为“滞胀苗头”已非常明显。这进一步刺激了本已强劲的所谓“趋平交易需求”，即押注随着经济增长前景黯淡，短端收益率将比长端收益率升幅更加剧烈。在3月7日，两年期和10年期美债收益率的差值缩小至仅19个基点，这是自2020年3月新冠疫情初期导致美国经济面临停滞以来的最小差值。不过，在交易员们试图判断自己是否有胆量押注趋平之际，长线投资者正专注于保护其资产免受不断增长的下行趋势风险的冲击。花旗集团策略师O’Donnell表示，部分养老金和保险公司的资金流向集中于买入10- 30年期美债的期权，如果明年美国经济大幅放缓，收益率从当前水平回落，这些期权持有者将会获利。Western Asset基金经理Molly Schwartz表示，该公司已开始将旗下一只主要基金更多地转向较长端债券。截至去年年底，该公司管理着近5,000亿美元资产，Schwartz表示:“我们正在将一些前端敞口移至收益率曲线上方。”也有分析观点认为，收益率抬升为个人投资者提供了一些好处，他们可以将利息和本金再投资于收益率更高的债券。主动管理型债基受投资者热捧CFRA Research的ETF和共同基金研究主管Todd Rosenbluth表示，这种波动似乎也增加了投资者们对一些ETF基金的兴趣，这些基金寻求主动管理市场风险，并专注于短端美债，他提到了太平洋投资管理公司和摩根大通等大型金融机构旗下相关产品今年以来的资金流入量。Rosenbluth表示:“从历史数据来看，投资者一直愿意相信主动管理型债基的基金经理能够通过寻找风险较低的额外收益来应对市场的不确定性。”“可以理解的是，与去年相比，今年的资金流向为利率抬升这一预期提供了一些保护空间，而当时去年的固定收益型ETF面临的风险较高。”对于那些一直保持防御性态势并保持较低水平的利率风险敞口投资者来说，收益率的上升可能提供了一个重返市场的机会。Cresset Capital首席投资官Jack Ablin表示:“我们仓位持有时间较短，并试图回到中性水平，因此在我们看来10年期任何资产的2%水平对我们来说都是合理价值。”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5139,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9007776016,"gmtCreate":1643025925612,"gmtModify":1676533765876,"author":{"id":"3586167248367118","authorId":"3586167248367118","name":"TanTH","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f9317bf33bd64e46c21c589d7bac5157","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586167248367118","idStr":"3586167248367118"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/XELA\">$Exela Technologies, Inc.(XELA)$</a>😭😢😅😂","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/XELA\">$Exela Technologies, Inc.(XELA)$</a>😭😢😅😂","text":"$Exela Technologies, Inc.(XELA)$😭😢😅😂","images":[{"img":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/4b7f86be346b79bc5d48bdecb56eb629","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9007776016","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":6647,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3566385558470298","authorId":"3566385558470298","name":"___ _","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/e0600059befbdbcd780f0d15118a44d6","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3566385558470298","idStr":"3566385558470298"},"content":"wah now 71c u huatt [Happy]","text":"wah now 71c u huatt [Happy]","html":"wah now 71c u huatt [Happy]"}],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9008836416,"gmtCreate":1641413653550,"gmtModify":1676533611474,"author":{"id":"3586167248367118","authorId":"3586167248367118","name":"TanTH","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f9317bf33bd64e46c21c589d7bac5157","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586167248367118","idStr":"3586167248367118"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/WISH\">$ContextLogic Inc.(WISH)$</a>&nbsp;2022 discount&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/WISH\">$ContextLogic Inc.(WISH)$</a>&nbsp;2022 discount&nbsp;","text":"$ContextLogic Inc.(WISH)$ 2022 discount","images":[{"img":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/7ff38c4ce42cae111f55ea67f6ef331a","width":"1080","height":"2988"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9008836416","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":6988,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":816425366,"gmtCreate":1630516730255,"gmtModify":1676530328311,"author":{"id":"3586167248367118","authorId":"3586167248367118","name":"TanTH","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f9317bf33bd64e46c21c589d7bac5157","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586167248367118","idStr":"3586167248367118"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Good&nbsp;","listText":"Good&nbsp;","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/816425366","repostId":"1170877267","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1170877267","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1630506252,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1170877267?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-09-01 22:24","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Popular Chinese concept stocks rallied collectively during trading, with Pinduoduo gaining nearly 9%.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1170877267","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"周三，热门中概股盘中集体拉升。截至发稿，拼多多涨近9%，爱奇艺涨超8%，哔哩哔哩、新东方、滴滴涨超7%，阿里巴巴、贝壳涨4%。","content":"<p>On Wednesday, popular Chinese concept stocks collectively rose during trading. As of press time,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">Pinduoduo</a>Up nearly 9%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IQ\">iQiyi</a>It rose more than 8%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">Bilibili</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EDU\">New Oriental</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DIDI\">Didi</a>It rose more than 7%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BEKE\">Seashell</a>It rose 4%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f78e550ae6b6f37193fc364d410cd2b7\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Popular Chinese concept stocks rallied collectively during trading, with Pinduoduo gaining nearly 9%.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPopular Chinese concept stocks rallied collectively during trading, with Pinduoduo gaining nearly 9%.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-09-01 22:24</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>On Wednesday, popular Chinese concept stocks collectively rose during trading. As of press time,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">Pinduoduo</a>Up nearly 9%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IQ\">iQiyi</a>It rose more than 8%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">Bilibili</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EDU\">New Oriental</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DIDI\">Didi</a>It rose more than 7%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BEKE\">Seashell</a>It rose 4%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f78e550ae6b6f37193fc364d410cd2b7\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e42c16a083ab273c19aaae21cdb697a0","relate_stocks":{"PDD":"拼多多","QNETCN":"纳斯达克中美互联网老虎指数"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1170877267","content_text":"周三，热门中概股盘中集体拉升。截至发稿，拼多多涨近9%，爱奇艺涨超8%，哔哩哔哩、新东方、滴滴涨超7%，阿里巴巴、贝壳涨4%。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"PDD":0.9,"QNETCN":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4805,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":818497606,"gmtCreate":1630423932105,"gmtModify":1676530300912,"author":{"id":"3586167248367118","authorId":"3586167248367118","name":"TanTH","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f9317bf33bd64e46c21c589d7bac5157","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586167248367118","idStr":"3586167248367118"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Good&nbsp;","listText":"Good&nbsp;","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/818497606","repostId":"1169845430","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1169845430","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1630412757,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1169845430?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-08-31 20:25","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"XPeng Automotive: Total revenue in the first half of the year was 6.712 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 569.3%.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1169845430","media":"新浪科技","summary":"上半年净亏损为人民币19.81亿元，去年同期亏损20.76亿元。","content":"<p>Beijing time, August 31st, evening news<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">XPeng Automotive</a>The company announced today that its total revenue for the first half of the year was RMB 6.712 billion, up 569.3% year-on-year; The company reported a net loss of RMB 1.981 billion in the first half of the year, compared to a loss of RMB 2.076 billion in the same period last year.</p><p><b>Summary of results for the first half of 2002:</b></p><p>Vehicle deliveries for the six months ended 30 June 2021 were 30,738 vehicles, representing an increase of 459% from 5,499 vehicles for the six months ended 30 June 2020.</p><p>P7 deliveries for the six months ended 30 June 2021 were 19,496 units. XPeng began mass deliveries of the P7 at the end of June 2020.</p><p>Of the total P7 delivered during the six months ended June 30, 2021, 97% supported XPILOT 2.5 or XPILOT 3.0.</p><p>As of June 30, 2021, XPeng Motors' physical sales and service network included 200 stores and 64 service centers, covering 74 cities.</p><p>As of June 30, 2021, XPeng Automotive brand Supercharger stations had expanded to 231, covering 65 cities.</p><p>For the six months ended June 30, 2021, total revenue was RMB6,712.2 million (US$1,039.6 million), representing an increase of 569.3% from RMB1,002.9 million for the six months ended June 30, 2020.</p><p>For the six months ended June 30, 2021, revenue from automobile sales was RMB6,394.7 million (US$990.4 million), representing an increase of 600.2% from RMB913.3 million for the six months ended June 30, 2020.</p><p>Gross profit margin was 11.6% for the six months ended 30 June 2021 as compared to negative 3.6% for the six months ended 30 June 2020.</p><p>The gross profit margin of automobiles, being the percentage of gross profit from automobile sales to revenue from automobile sales, was 10.6% for the six months ended 30 June 2021, as compared to negative 5.5% for the six months ended 30 June 2020.</p><p>Net loss for the six months ended June 30, 2021 was RMB1,981.1 million (US$306.8 million), compared to RMB795.8 million for the six months ended June 30, 2020. Excluding share-based compensation expenses and changes in the fair value of derivative liabilities related to preferred shares redemption rights, the net loss under non-GAAP was RMB1792.7 million (US$277.7 million) for the six months ended June 30, 2021, compared to RMB1414.2 million for the six months ended June 30, 2020.</p><p>Net loss attributable to ordinary shareholders of XPeng Automotive was RMB1,981.1 million (US$306.8 million) for the six months ended June 30, 2021, as compared to RMB2,076.5 million for the six months ended June 30, 2020. Excluding share-based compensation expenses, changes in the fair value of derivative liabilities related to preferred shares redemption rights, and increases in the redemption value of preferred shares, the net loss attributable to ordinary shareholders of XPeng Automotive under non-GAAP was RMB1,792.7 million (US$277.7 million) for the six months ended June 30, 2021, compared to RMB1,414.2 million for the six months ended June 30, 2020.</p><p>Basic and diluted net loss per American Depositary Share for the six months ended June 30, 2021 was RMB2.49 (US$0.39), compared to basic and diluted net loss per ordinary share of RMB1.25 (US$0.19).</p><p>Both non-GAAP basic and diluted net loss per American Depositary Share was RMB2.26 (US$0.35) for the six months ended June 30, 2021, compared to non-GAAP basic and diluted net loss per ordinary share of RMB1.13 (US$0.17). Each American Depositary Share represents two Class A ordinary shares.</p><p>As of June 30, 2021, cash and cash equivalents, restricted cash, short-term deposits, short-term investments and long-term deposits were RMB32,871.2 million (US$5,091.1 million).</p><p><b>XPeng vehicle deliveries in July:</b></p><p>In July 2021, XPeng Motor<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/5RE.SI\">smart</a>Total deliveries of electric vehicles reached 8,040 units, representing a year-on-year increase of 228%. July deliveries included 6,054 P7 (XPeng Motors' intelligent sports sedan) and 1,986 G3 (XPeng Motors' compact intelligent SUV). As of July 31, 2021, year-to-date deliveries reached 38,778 vehicles, representing a year-on-year increase of 388%.</p>","source":"sina_tech","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>XPeng Automotive: Total revenue in the first half of the year was 6.712 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 569.3%.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nXPeng Automotive: Total revenue in the first half of the year was 6.712 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 569.3%.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">新浪科技</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-31 20:25</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Beijing time, August 31st, evening news<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">XPeng Automotive</a>The company announced today that its total revenue for the first half of the year was RMB 6.712 billion, up 569.3% year-on-year; The company reported a net loss of RMB 1.981 billion in the first half of the year, compared to a loss of RMB 2.076 billion in the same period last year.</p><p><b>Summary of results for the first half of 2002:</b></p><p>Vehicle deliveries for the six months ended 30 June 2021 were 30,738 vehicles, representing an increase of 459% from 5,499 vehicles for the six months ended 30 June 2020.</p><p>P7 deliveries for the six months ended 30 June 2021 were 19,496 units. XPeng began mass deliveries of the P7 at the end of June 2020.</p><p>Of the total P7 delivered during the six months ended June 30, 2021, 97% supported XPILOT 2.5 or XPILOT 3.0.</p><p>As of June 30, 2021, XPeng Motors' physical sales and service network included 200 stores and 64 service centers, covering 74 cities.</p><p>As of June 30, 2021, XPeng Automotive brand Supercharger stations had expanded to 231, covering 65 cities.</p><p>For the six months ended June 30, 2021, total revenue was RMB6,712.2 million (US$1,039.6 million), representing an increase of 569.3% from RMB1,002.9 million for the six months ended June 30, 2020.</p><p>For the six months ended June 30, 2021, revenue from automobile sales was RMB6,394.7 million (US$990.4 million), representing an increase of 600.2% from RMB913.3 million for the six months ended June 30, 2020.</p><p>Gross profit margin was 11.6% for the six months ended 30 June 2021 as compared to negative 3.6% for the six months ended 30 June 2020.</p><p>The gross profit margin of automobiles, being the percentage of gross profit from automobile sales to revenue from automobile sales, was 10.6% for the six months ended 30 June 2021, as compared to negative 5.5% for the six months ended 30 June 2020.</p><p>Net loss for the six months ended June 30, 2021 was RMB1,981.1 million (US$306.8 million), compared to RMB795.8 million for the six months ended June 30, 2020. Excluding share-based compensation expenses and changes in the fair value of derivative liabilities related to preferred shares redemption rights, the net loss under non-GAAP was RMB1792.7 million (US$277.7 million) for the six months ended June 30, 2021, compared to RMB1414.2 million for the six months ended June 30, 2020.</p><p>Net loss attributable to ordinary shareholders of XPeng Automotive was RMB1,981.1 million (US$306.8 million) for the six months ended June 30, 2021, as compared to RMB2,076.5 million for the six months ended June 30, 2020. Excluding share-based compensation expenses, changes in the fair value of derivative liabilities related to preferred shares redemption rights, and increases in the redemption value of preferred shares, the net loss attributable to ordinary shareholders of XPeng Automotive under non-GAAP was RMB1,792.7 million (US$277.7 million) for the six months ended June 30, 2021, compared to RMB1,414.2 million for the six months ended June 30, 2020.</p><p>Basic and diluted net loss per American Depositary Share for the six months ended June 30, 2021 was RMB2.49 (US$0.39), compared to basic and diluted net loss per ordinary share of RMB1.25 (US$0.19).</p><p>Both non-GAAP basic and diluted net loss per American Depositary Share was RMB2.26 (US$0.35) for the six months ended June 30, 2021, compared to non-GAAP basic and diluted net loss per ordinary share of RMB1.13 (US$0.17). Each American Depositary Share represents two Class A ordinary shares.</p><p>As of June 30, 2021, cash and cash equivalents, restricted cash, short-term deposits, short-term investments and long-term deposits were RMB32,871.2 million (US$5,091.1 million).</p><p><b>XPeng vehicle deliveries in July:</b></p><p>In July 2021, XPeng Motor<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/5RE.SI\">smart</a>Total deliveries of electric vehicles reached 8,040 units, representing a year-on-year increase of 228%. July deliveries included 6,054 P7 (XPeng Motors' intelligent sports sedan) and 1,986 G3 (XPeng Motors' compact intelligent SUV). As of July 31, 2021, year-to-date deliveries reached 38,778 vehicles, representing a year-on-year increase of 388%.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://finance.sina.com.cn/tech/2021-08-31/doc-iktzqtyt3280321.shtml\">新浪科技</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/401f7adefb705cb1d679bb39b97c03e1","relate_stocks":{"XPEV":"小鹏集团"},"source_url":"https://finance.sina.com.cn/tech/2021-08-31/doc-iktzqtyt3280321.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1169845430","content_text":"北京时间8月31日晚间消息，小鹏汽车今日发布公告称，该公司上半年总收入为人民币67.12亿元，同比上升569.3%；上半年净亏损为人民币19.81亿元，去年同期亏损20.76亿元。\n202年上半年业绩摘要：\n截至2021年6月30日止六个月汽车交付量为30,738辆，较2020年6月30日止六个月的5,499辆上升459%。\n截至2021年6月30日止六个月P7交付量为19,496辆。小鹏汽车于2020年6月底开始批量交付P7。\n在截至2021年6月30日止六个月已交付的P7总量中，97%可支持XPILOT 2.5或XPILOT3.0。\n截至2021年6月30日，小鹏汽车的实体销售和服务网络包括200间门店和64个服务中心，覆盖74个城市。\n截至2021年6月30日，小鹏汽车品牌超级充电站扩展至231座，覆盖65个城市。\n截至2021年6月30日止六个月，总收入为人民币67.122亿元（10.396亿美元），较截至2020年6月30日止六个月的人民币10.029亿元上升569.3%。\n截至2021年6月30日止六个月，汽车销售收入 为人民币63.947亿 元（9.904亿美元），较截至2020年6月30日止六个月的人民币9.133亿元上升600.2%。\n截至2021年6月30日止六个月毛利率为11.6%，相较而言，截至2020年6月30日止六个月为负3.6%。\n截至2021年6月30日止六个月汽车毛利率（即汽车销售毛利润占汽车销售收入的百分比）为10.6%，相较而言，截至2020年6月30日止六个月为负5.5%。\n截至2021年6月30日止六个月净亏损为人民币19.811亿元（3.068亿美元），相较而言，截至2020年6月30日止六个月为人民币7.958亿元。除以股份为基础的薪酬开支和与优先股赎回权相关的衍生负债公允价值变动外，截至2021年6月30日止六个月非公认会计原则净亏损为人民币1,7.927亿元（2.777亿美元），相较而言，截至2020年6月30日止六个月为人民币1,4.142亿元。\n截至2021年6月30日止六个月小鹏汽车普通股东应占净亏损为人民币19.811亿元（306.8百万美元），相较而言，截至2020年6月30日止六个月为人民币20.765亿元。除以股份为基础的薪酬开支、与优先股赎回权相关的衍生负债公允价值变动以及优先股赎回价值的增加外，截至2021年6月30日止六个月非公认会计原则小鹏汽车普通股东应占净亏损为人民币17.927亿元（2.777亿美元），相较而言，截至2020年6月30日止六个月为人民币14.142亿元。\n截至2021年6月30日止六个月每股美国存托股基本及摊薄净亏损均为人民币2.49元（0.39美元），而每股普通股基本及摊薄净亏损均为人民币1.25元（0.19美元）。\n截至2021年6月30日止六个月非公认会计原则每股美国存托股基本及摊薄净亏损均为人民币2.26元（0.35美元），而非公认会计原则每股普通股基本及摊薄净亏损均为人民币1.13元（0.17美元）。每一股美国存托股代表两股A类普通股。\n截至2021年6月30日，现金及现金等价物、受限制现金、短期存款、短期投资及长期存款为人民币328.712亿元（50.911亿美元）。\n小鹏汽车7月的交付量：\n2021年7月，小鹏汽车智能电动汽车的总交付量达8,040辆，按年增长228%。 7月的交付中包括6,054辆P7（小鹏汽车的智能运动型轿车）和1,986辆G3（小鹏汽车的紧凑型智能SUV）。截至2021年7月31日，年初至今的交付量达38,778辆，按年增长388%。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"XPEV":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":6126,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":818028737,"gmtCreate":1630367097929,"gmtModify":1676530280436,"author":{"id":"3586167248367118","authorId":"3586167248367118","name":"TanTH","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f9317bf33bd64e46c21c589d7bac5157","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586167248367118","idStr":"3586167248367118"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Good&nbsp;","listText":"Good&nbsp;","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/818028737","repostId":"1183198336","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1183198336","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1630309929,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1183198336?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-08-30 15:52","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"91-year-old Warren Buffett: Still navigating cycles, value investing will not fall from its pedestal.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1183198336","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"这个名字永远带着浓厚的传奇色彩。","content":"<p>Warren Buffett was born on August 30, 1930, in Omaha, Nebraska, USA. Today, he turns 91 years old.</p><p>Buffett was once asked questions about life. Buffett replied:</p><p>“Physically, I have no value left, only a little residual value. It’s really useless, but it doesn’t stop me from working, it doesn’t stop me from being happy, it doesn’t stop me from thinking. I don’t feel that my enjoyment and passion for life have diminished in any way. In fact, in a sense, the game I’m playing is becoming more and more interesting. It’s a competitive game, a big game, and I enjoy it very much.”</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/49e396b50629cd1c414da9f896d60017\" tg-width=\"924\" tg-height=\"852\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>This name will always be steeped in legend, from American Express to The Washington Post, from the classic legend of Coca-Cola to the 2008 financial crisis that saved Goldman Sachs from disaster. At the same time, its \"value investing\" philosophy has gradually become the creed of value investors. Moreover, Berkshire Hathaway, managed by Buffett, also occupies the top of the hierarchy due to its sky-high price of hundreds of thousands of dollars per share (Class A).</p><p>As a child, Buffett showed a sensitivity to numbers. In 1950, he entered Columbia University's Business School and became a student of Benjamin Graham, known as the \"father of value investors\". Buffett thrived under Graham.</p><p>In 1962, Buffett bought the first Berkshire Hathaway stock. In early 1965, Buffett gained control of Berkshire Hathaway. After that, Berkshire's business nature changed, and it was no longer a simple spinning company, but an investment entity. Buffett used it as a business platform, continuously acquiring other profitable companies and equity, creating an investment myth.</p><p>From 1965 to 2018, Berkshire's book value grew at a compound annual growth rate of 18.7%, significantly exceeding the S&P 500's 9.7%. From 1964 to 2018, Berkshire's overall growth rate was 1,091,899% (or more than 10,918 times), while the S&P 500 index was 15,019%. This is only an increase in book value; Berkshire's intrinsic value has increased far more than its book value.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b81fe99f598432b496647628a93daf9\" tg-width=\"873\" tg-height=\"721\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Data Source Warren Buffett's Letters to Berkshire Shareholders, 2018</p><p>If you had bought $10,000 worth of Berkshire Hathaway stock in 1965, after 53 years of Buffett's masterful management, its market value would have become approximately $247 million today—it's worth mentioning that this is after-tax income!</p><p><b>Classic case: How Buffett did it</b></p><p>Warren Buffett is a representative of concentrated equity investment, and his investment cases are few and far between. The fruitful results of these \"battles,\" relying on the power of compound interest, propelled Berkshire Hathaway into the top ten of U.S. publicly traded companies by market capitalization.</p><p><b>Seesee Candy</b></p><p>In 1972, Buffett acquired See's Candies for $25 million under the name of Blue Chip Printing Company (which was soon incorporated into Berkshire Hathaway).</p><p>Seesee Candy's average annual sales growth was slow, while the increase in unit price led to a surge in net profit.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d41b1c14b1f3e89a4dd75caf7702fbfc\" tg-width=\"753\" tg-height=\"466\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In a letter to shareholders in March 1984, Buffett stated that See's candy is worth much more than its book value. It is a branded enterprise whose products can be sold at a price higher than the cost of production, and will continue to have this pricing power in the future.</p><p>When Buffett looked back on the acquisition of See's Candy, he saw it as a fantastic and outstanding business. From 1972 to 2007, it contributed $1.35 billion in pre-tax profits to Berkshire Hathaway, of which only $32 million was used to supplement the company's working capital. After paying corporate profits tax, the remaining funds are used to buy other attractive businesses.</p><p>Seychelles brought Berkshire Hathaway many new sources of cash, which, as the Bible describes it, was \"plentiful and fruitful.\"</p><p><b>Government Employees Insurance Corporation (GEICO)</b></p><p>In 1976, Buffett bought $4 million worth of Government Employees Insurance Corporation (GEICO) stock. In 1980, Buffett made another large purchase of GEICO stock, holding a total of 7.2 million shares, accounting for 33% of GEICO's total share capital, at a total cost of $47.14 million. For 15 years after 1980, GEICO continuously repurchased company stock, and Berkshire's stake continued to increase. In 1995, Berkshire's stake had increased to 50%, and it spent $2.3 billion to acquire the remaining 50% stake. After acquiring full ownership, GEICO continuously contributed free insurance floats to Berkshire Hathaway for investment, helping Berkshire Hathaway's net asset value grow rapidly.</p><p>Buffett has a deep connection with the Government Employees Insurance Corporation (GEICO). Back in 1950, when Buffett was a student of Graham, he visited GEICO. David, then vice president of GEICO, received Buffett and spent about four hours explaining the insurance company's operating model in detail, telling Buffett that GEICO's core competitive advantage lay in the low cost advantage brought about by its direct sales model.</p><p>If GEICO is a valuable and highly regarded business fortress, then its cost and expense differentials with its peers are its moat.</p><p><b>Coca-Cola</b></p><p>In 1987, Coca-Cola was in trouble due to conflicts between bottlers provoked by Pepsi, and its stock price was relatively low. In 1988, Buffett began buying large amounts of Coca-Cola shares, holding a total of 14.17 million shares at a cost of 592 million. In 1989, the company continued to increase its holdings, doubling its total number of shares to 23.35 million, at a total cost of 1.024 billion yuan. In 1994, Buffett bought another $270 million worth of stock.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d296107134c53bad12b6b6f54f1ceffa\" tg-width=\"615\" tg-height=\"516\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>To this day, Coca-Cola remains Berkshire Hathaway's top holding, accounting for 9.79% of its total holdings, holding 400 million shares with a market value of over $20 billion, and receiving a total of approximately $6 billion in dividends during this period.</p><p>Buffett has a true love for Coca-Cola. At a Berkshire Hathaway shareholder meeting, Buffett said that he drinks cola every day and has been using this lifestyle since 1982. \"If I could live an extra year by eating only healthy vegetables like asparagus and broccoli every day, and if drinking cola and eating chocolate every day could make me happier but shorten my lifespan by a year, then I would be willing to trade a year of my life for such happiness. That is my choice.\"</p><p>Coca-Cola is an exceptional company whose management cares about shareholders' return on capital and tangible cash returns. The company can operate asset-light businesses while also achieving extremely strong profitability. The company's growth has both a long history of sustainability and a clear outlook for the coming decades. Coca-Cola is classified by Buffett as an \"eternal holding\".</p><p>Other classic examples scattered throughout Berkshire's annual report include:</p><p>The Washington Post, which was acquired in 1973, underwent a share swap in 2014, yielding an annualized return of 12%.</p><p>Scott Fitzel, who was purchased in 1986, contributed a total of $1.03 billion in dividends to Berkshire Hathaway by 2000.</p><p>Freddie Mac, which began buying in 1988, sold all of its shares in 2000, with a total pre-tax profit of approximately $3 billion.</p><p>The PetroChina H shares purchased in 2003 were all sold between July and October 2007, generating a pre-tax investment income of approximately US$3.55 billion.</p><p>Wait, wait.</p><p>These vivid examples not only string together outstanding investment achievements that shine throughout the world, but also reflect changes in investment philosophy and Buffett's investment thinking.</p><p>Buffett is an excellent corporate learner who can quickly and accurately identify the key complexities of a company. He can veto an investment within two minutes and make a major investment decision within two days of analysis. He was always prepared, as he said in the company's annual report: \"Noah didn't wait until it rained to start building the ark.\"</p><p>He doesn't care about how the stock market performs in the short term, emphasizing that determining the company's intrinsic value and a fair and safe price are essential elements of investing. He never invests in companies he doesn't understand or companies outside his sphere of competence. In the 1990s, he pointed out that the results of 12 investment decisions in his 40-year career had set him apart.</p><p><b>Warren Buffett is not outdated; value investing remains on a pedestal.</b></p><p>As a living stock market guru, his outstanding historical achievements are certainly something everyone should learn from and deconstruct. However, numerous academic studies do not have a high degree of consensus on his outstanding historical achievements, and some academic researchers even attribute his performance to luck. In recent years, an academic paper from AQR called Buffett's Alpha concluded that Buffett's excess returns came from investing in safe, high-quality, and cheap stocks, and that the returns implied leverage of 1.4 to 1.6 times due to the extremely low capital costs of Berkshire's insurance business.</p><p>However, to date, there haven't been many studies analyzing Buffett's performance from a behavioral finance perspective. Buffett said in 1987:</p><p>\"In my view, successful investing will not come from mysterious formulas, computer programs, or flashing signals from market prices. On the contrary, investors will succeed if they combine successful business judgment with investment actions, achieve unity of knowledge and action, and their emotions are not affected by market fluctuations.\" Actually, I am not a staunch supporter of the market efficiency hypothesis. I believe that the market is not perfect, but it is not completely irrational either.</p><p>Based on my research experience, Buffett's outstanding historical performance stems from his investment style and cost of capital (i.e., the quantitative part of traditional finance), his and Munger's investment behavior (i.e., the part of behavioral finance), and, on the other hand, there is indeed an element of luck. As the saying goes, none of the favorable timing, location, and people are missing.</p><p>So what exactly did he do right to achieve such investment success? Is it extraordinary ability, luck, or a matter of standing up for oneself?<b>This time, we'll discuss three aspects: investment ability, luck, and behavioral finance.</b></p><p>Excellent investment capabilities are the core</p><p>First, we will use the classic Fama-French 5-factor model to gain an in-depth understanding and analysis of Buffett's style. The five-factor model is based on the famous three-factor model, adding the profit factor RMW (Robust Minus Weak) and the investment factor CMA (Conservative Minus Aggressive). Meanwhile, based on the statistical results of the five-factor model, we processed the original model, removing the market capitalization factor SMB (Small Minus Big) and investment factors, which contributed very little and insignificantly, and introducing the Quality factor QMJ (Quality Minus Junk) and Betting factor BAB (Betting Against Beta) of AQR to form a new FF five-factor model, which more accurately divides the contributions of the factors. The specific assumptions and premises of the model will not be elaborated here.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e21a3224526bbc762d1af144bd187fcd\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"662\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The above breaks down Berkshire's excess return attribution analysis. From the traditional Fama-French five-factor model, it can be seen that the market itself and excess returns are the two largest proportions, followed by high value and high profitability. The market itself and excess returns accounted for 80.2% of the contribution. In other words, Buffett's success is partly due to the long-term rise in the market (national fortune) and partly to his own excellence (ability).</p><p>It is important to note that attribution analysis revealed a negative contribution from small market capitalization. This does not necessarily mean that this factor has no effect; it may also be due to discussions regarding the selection of time periods or indicators. Looking at our improved new FF5 model, we can see that most of the excess returns that could not be explained before have dropped from 6.66% to 2.40%, which is largely explained by the two factors of high quality and low beta.</p><p>Buffett's remarkable performance is largely attributed to his use of high leverage to buy safe, high-quality, and inexpensive stocks at low financing costs and hold them for the long term. No matter how you study it, you can find that Buffett is good at using leverage to amplify returns. However, high leverage can only explain part of its amazing performance; simply blindly using high leverage can actually reduce its returns. From a financing perspective, Buffett's main sources of financing are AAA-rated high-quality bonds and the company's cheap premium income, using a cyclical model of debt-driven investment and investment expanding debt.</p><p>In summary, choosing high-quality, low-beta, and high-value stocks is Buffett's style, which is what Buffett himself said: investing in high-quality companies at average prices is better than investing in average companies at cheap prices. His success was one-third due to fate (gambling on the luck of the times and the country), and mostly due to people (his personal investment ability was too excellent).</p><p>Luck always favors the prepared.</p><p>But some people might ask, out of billions of people in the world, only one Buffett has emerged? Is it just luck? Perhaps all the good fortune in the world is concentrated on this one person? Now let's explore whether the altar is a human or a god. During the 38 years from 1980 to 2017, we first conducted a simple CAPM regression analysis of Berkshire Hathaway's returns, yielding the following results:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/84dfe1bf5c4910c0ab0ab36c678559cc\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"388\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Where beta is approximately 0.65, the cross-intercept alpha is 0.0096, and both parameters pass a significant test, indicating that we reject the original assumption that Buffett's excess returns are zero. Furthermore, in terms of yield, we can see that the excess annualized yield obtained through the simple CAPM model reached 11.52%. From a risk perspective, the volatility of its excess returns (the square root of the total variance of returns minus the variance of market returns) can be calculated as 16.83%.</p><p>To better illustrate Buffett's luck component, we use the following model assumptions:</p><p><ul><li>At the same initial moment, 10,000 completely independent investors invested $1 with Buffett;</p><p></li></ul><ul><li>These investors' returns are completely random, and their annual excess returns follow a normal distribution with a mean of 0 and a variance of 16.83%.</p><p></li></ul><ul><li>These investors will hold firmly until the end of 2017, regardless of the price fluctuations during that period.</p><p></li></ul>After 10,000 random fittings, the results are shown in the figure below:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6555420a8a2e9b5b7c819f679de6457c\" tg-width=\"929\" tg-height=\"514\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In the chart above, the blue line represents Buffett's cumulative return, and the orange line indicates that the final cumulative return exceeds Buffett's random fit growth.</p><p>As can be seen from the chart, out of 10,000 investors who followed Buffett's return distribution but fluctuated randomly (based on luck), only 14 ultimately achieved higher investment performance than Buffett! Furthermore, as can be seen from the chart, Buffett's growth line was almost consistently at the top of the entire random fit throughout the entire holding period.</p><p>Its consistently outstanding performance, consistently within the top 0.2%, is certainly not due to random luck, but rather a testament to its genuine investment strength. Some people might not take it seriously, but there are still 14 \"geniuses\" who are more powerful than Buffett. Let's take the returns of these 14 investors and do a simple study to see if we would choose those who seem more \"awesome\".</p><p><ul><li>Fourteen investors who outperformed Buffett were divided into four groups according to their annualized returns, with the investor with the largest, 75th percentile, 25th percentile, and smallest being the representative of each group.</p><p></li></ul><ul><li>Compare the excess returns of these four investors relative to Buffett, and compare the 10-year rolling annualized returns over the same period (1980-2017).</p><p></li></ul><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2166baf7d6a3cd7460b50e8e7f78f36a\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"512\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Have you noticed that these investors who ultimately outperform Buffett (above the red benchmark) may not even survive in the early stages? Take the best performer (blue) as an example. Before 2005, for nearly 25 years, his performance was consistently worse than Buffett's. His catching up with and surpassing Buffett was almost entirely due to the explosive growth after 2010.</p><p>Such fund managers have probably already been abandoned by investors in reality, so there is no question of a subsequent explosive growth.</p><p>It seems that, having read this far, everyone believes that Buffett's pedestal is out of reach. However, this model has many problems in practice. First, the independence of investors. Even if everyone holds different stocks or assets, their returns will not be completely independent. Secondly, regarding the investment holding period, in real life, a long-term, unchanging investment of 38 years, without considering individual lifespan, should only exist in long-term fund management institutions similar to pension funds.</p><p>However, despite its various flaws, this model still illustrates one point well: trying to defeat Buffett on his pedestal through luck? It's very rare.</p><p>Be self-reliant and have a clear understanding of your circle of competence.</p><p>From a behavioral perspective, value investing is actually about making money from the rebound in value after an oversold price created by the market's overreaction to bad news. But how do we determine whether a company is undervalued because its fundamentals are indeed poor, it has lost its market position, or because the market has overreacted under irrational perceptions? These issues, which are difficult to explain in a single sentence, are actually the most challenging aspects of value investing. Value investing is contrarian investing, which requires contrarian thinking and investment behavior that goes against human nature.</p><p>In Expectations and Investments, Nicola Gennaioli, Yueran Ma, and Andrei Shleifer note:</p><p>High profit margins over the past year can make investors overly optimistic; The low profit margins of the past year can make investors overly pessimistic. In Contrarian Investment, Extrapolation, and Risk, Josef Lakonishok, Andrei Shleifer, and Robert Vishny note:</p><p>Some investors tend to be overly optimistic about stocks that have performed well in the past, leading to overvaluations of these \"beautiful\" stocks. Joseph D. Piotroski, Eric C. So in Identifying Expectation Errors in Value/Glamour Strategies: A Fundamental Analysis Approach:</p><p>The mispricing of stocks stems from investors' excessive optimism about \"overvalued\" stocks and excessive pessimism about \"undervalued\" stocks. Buffett's outstanding historical performance, aside from his exceptional investment ability and low capital costs, and his and Munger's superior behavior and psychology, as well as their accumulated self-cultivation, are also necessary conditions for success.</p><p>This includes overcoming humanity's innate Cognitive and Emotional biases. Buffett and Munger's decision-making styles, cognitive abilities, and emotional discipline all complement Buffett's strong performance. In particular, the influence of Munger, a master of investment and philosophy, on Buffett is an important behavioral factor in Buffett's outstanding performance.</p><p>In 2014, Munger defined four factors contributing to Buffett's success: 1. Buffett's structural personal charisma traits, 2. Berkshire's structural decision-making system, 3. Good luck, 4. The bizarre and intensely contagious dedication of some shareholders, other admirers, and even some in the press.</p><p>In my view, both the factors mentioned above and Buffett's investment framework, which he excels at, can reduce the impact of Over-Confident Bias on investment decisions. Overconfidence bias refers to the situation where our subjective confidence in our judgments is relatively higher than what is actually objectively determined. Overconfidence includes three aspects: overestimation, overplacement, and overprecision.</p><p>Although the consequences of different types of overconfidence are not the same, they have one thing in common: they can lead to long-term and continuous bad financial and other decisions.</p><p>Some studies have shown that overconfidence is not only a common weakness of financial market traders, but more importantly, these seasoned traders often ignore this weakness because the bias of overconfidence is deeply rooted in the human subconscious and is often referred to as \"the root of all biases\".</p><p>From the writings and speeches of Buffett and Munger, we can see that they are keenly aware of overconfidence, the root of all biases, and are very careful about it, taking a series of measures to avoid or minimize the negative impact of overconfidence on decision-making. As Munger said:</p><p>\"People have long misjudged their own scope of knowledge, which is one of the most basic characteristics of human nature. Knowing the scope of one's abilities is one of the most difficult things for humans to do. Knowing what one does not know is more useful in life and business than becoming excellent.\" At the end</p><p>Over 38 years, Buffett and Munger together achieved an annualized return of over 20%, a cumulative increase of more than 1,100 times, far outperforming the already decent S&P 500 index. Buffett's earnings are partly due to the dividends of the overall market environment, but more so to his personal stock selection skills, in which buying high-quality, low-volatility and high-value stocks is his investment style.</p><p>Buffett's excess returns are not due to luck, and it is almost unrealistic to expect him to beat him by chance. As Buffett's best partner, Munger, with his personal charisma and personality, as well as his great philosophical system, is a behavioral mentor for Buffett's outstanding historical achievements.</p><p>However, even a combination as strong as Buffett and Munger has historically underperformed the market significantly at times. If value investing can outperform the market every moment, then countless investors will inevitably flock in, making value investing strategies ineffective. It is precisely the large cyclical tracking error that amplifies investors' irrational behavior, rendering the market efficiency hypothesis invalid and creating opportunities for determined value investors to outperform the market over the long term.</p><p>However, the inherent high tracking error of value investing in the market is also a double-edged sword. Out of 100 value investors, there are 100 reasons to believe in value investing, and also 100 painful experiences of practicing value investing but failing because they could not tolerate tracking errors. As value investors, we need to hold stocks that are endlessly despised by Wall Street, we need to stay away from noisy and superficial stock reviews, we need to maintain our beliefs amidst major market fluctuations, and we need to have enough courage to navigate the long cycle of value investing.</p><p>Let us encourage each other with this.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>91-year-old Warren Buffett: Still navigating cycles, value investing will not fall from its pedestal.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n91-year-old Warren Buffett: Still navigating cycles, value investing will not fall from its pedestal.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-08-30 15:52</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Warren Buffett was born on August 30, 1930, in Omaha, Nebraska, USA. Today, he turns 91 years old.</p><p>Buffett was once asked questions about life. Buffett replied:</p><p>“Physically, I have no value left, only a little residual value. It’s really useless, but it doesn’t stop me from working, it doesn’t stop me from being happy, it doesn’t stop me from thinking. I don’t feel that my enjoyment and passion for life have diminished in any way. In fact, in a sense, the game I’m playing is becoming more and more interesting. It’s a competitive game, a big game, and I enjoy it very much.”</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/49e396b50629cd1c414da9f896d60017\" tg-width=\"924\" tg-height=\"852\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>This name will always be steeped in legend, from American Express to The Washington Post, from the classic legend of Coca-Cola to the 2008 financial crisis that saved Goldman Sachs from disaster. At the same time, its \"value investing\" philosophy has gradually become the creed of value investors. Moreover, Berkshire Hathaway, managed by Buffett, also occupies the top of the hierarchy due to its sky-high price of hundreds of thousands of dollars per share (Class A).</p><p>As a child, Buffett showed a sensitivity to numbers. In 1950, he entered Columbia University's Business School and became a student of Benjamin Graham, known as the \"father of value investors\". Buffett thrived under Graham.</p><p>In 1962, Buffett bought the first Berkshire Hathaway stock. In early 1965, Buffett gained control of Berkshire Hathaway. After that, Berkshire's business nature changed, and it was no longer a simple spinning company, but an investment entity. Buffett used it as a business platform, continuously acquiring other profitable companies and equity, creating an investment myth.</p><p>From 1965 to 2018, Berkshire's book value grew at a compound annual growth rate of 18.7%, significantly exceeding the S&P 500's 9.7%. From 1964 to 2018, Berkshire's overall growth rate was 1,091,899% (or more than 10,918 times), while the S&P 500 index was 15,019%. This is only an increase in book value; Berkshire's intrinsic value has increased far more than its book value.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b81fe99f598432b496647628a93daf9\" tg-width=\"873\" tg-height=\"721\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Data Source Warren Buffett's Letters to Berkshire Shareholders, 2018</p><p>If you had bought $10,000 worth of Berkshire Hathaway stock in 1965, after 53 years of Buffett's masterful management, its market value would have become approximately $247 million today—it's worth mentioning that this is after-tax income!</p><p><b>Classic case: How Buffett did it</b></p><p>Warren Buffett is a representative of concentrated equity investment, and his investment cases are few and far between. The fruitful results of these \"battles,\" relying on the power of compound interest, propelled Berkshire Hathaway into the top ten of U.S. publicly traded companies by market capitalization.</p><p><b>Seesee Candy</b></p><p>In 1972, Buffett acquired See's Candies for $25 million under the name of Blue Chip Printing Company (which was soon incorporated into Berkshire Hathaway).</p><p>Seesee Candy's average annual sales growth was slow, while the increase in unit price led to a surge in net profit.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d41b1c14b1f3e89a4dd75caf7702fbfc\" tg-width=\"753\" tg-height=\"466\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In a letter to shareholders in March 1984, Buffett stated that See's candy is worth much more than its book value. It is a branded enterprise whose products can be sold at a price higher than the cost of production, and will continue to have this pricing power in the future.</p><p>When Buffett looked back on the acquisition of See's Candy, he saw it as a fantastic and outstanding business. From 1972 to 2007, it contributed $1.35 billion in pre-tax profits to Berkshire Hathaway, of which only $32 million was used to supplement the company's working capital. After paying corporate profits tax, the remaining funds are used to buy other attractive businesses.</p><p>Seychelles brought Berkshire Hathaway many new sources of cash, which, as the Bible describes it, was \"plentiful and fruitful.\"</p><p><b>Government Employees Insurance Corporation (GEICO)</b></p><p>In 1976, Buffett bought $4 million worth of Government Employees Insurance Corporation (GEICO) stock. In 1980, Buffett made another large purchase of GEICO stock, holding a total of 7.2 million shares, accounting for 33% of GEICO's total share capital, at a total cost of $47.14 million. For 15 years after 1980, GEICO continuously repurchased company stock, and Berkshire's stake continued to increase. In 1995, Berkshire's stake had increased to 50%, and it spent $2.3 billion to acquire the remaining 50% stake. After acquiring full ownership, GEICO continuously contributed free insurance floats to Berkshire Hathaway for investment, helping Berkshire Hathaway's net asset value grow rapidly.</p><p>Buffett has a deep connection with the Government Employees Insurance Corporation (GEICO). Back in 1950, when Buffett was a student of Graham, he visited GEICO. David, then vice president of GEICO, received Buffett and spent about four hours explaining the insurance company's operating model in detail, telling Buffett that GEICO's core competitive advantage lay in the low cost advantage brought about by its direct sales model.</p><p>If GEICO is a valuable and highly regarded business fortress, then its cost and expense differentials with its peers are its moat.</p><p><b>Coca-Cola</b></p><p>In 1987, Coca-Cola was in trouble due to conflicts between bottlers provoked by Pepsi, and its stock price was relatively low. In 1988, Buffett began buying large amounts of Coca-Cola shares, holding a total of 14.17 million shares at a cost of 592 million. In 1989, the company continued to increase its holdings, doubling its total number of shares to 23.35 million, at a total cost of 1.024 billion yuan. In 1994, Buffett bought another $270 million worth of stock.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d296107134c53bad12b6b6f54f1ceffa\" tg-width=\"615\" tg-height=\"516\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>To this day, Coca-Cola remains Berkshire Hathaway's top holding, accounting for 9.79% of its total holdings, holding 400 million shares with a market value of over $20 billion, and receiving a total of approximately $6 billion in dividends during this period.</p><p>Buffett has a true love for Coca-Cola. At a Berkshire Hathaway shareholder meeting, Buffett said that he drinks cola every day and has been using this lifestyle since 1982. \"If I could live an extra year by eating only healthy vegetables like asparagus and broccoli every day, and if drinking cola and eating chocolate every day could make me happier but shorten my lifespan by a year, then I would be willing to trade a year of my life for such happiness. That is my choice.\"</p><p>Coca-Cola is an exceptional company whose management cares about shareholders' return on capital and tangible cash returns. The company can operate asset-light businesses while also achieving extremely strong profitability. The company's growth has both a long history of sustainability and a clear outlook for the coming decades. Coca-Cola is classified by Buffett as an \"eternal holding\".</p><p>Other classic examples scattered throughout Berkshire's annual report include:</p><p>The Washington Post, which was acquired in 1973, underwent a share swap in 2014, yielding an annualized return of 12%.</p><p>Scott Fitzel, who was purchased in 1986, contributed a total of $1.03 billion in dividends to Berkshire Hathaway by 2000.</p><p>Freddie Mac, which began buying in 1988, sold all of its shares in 2000, with a total pre-tax profit of approximately $3 billion.</p><p>The PetroChina H shares purchased in 2003 were all sold between July and October 2007, generating a pre-tax investment income of approximately US$3.55 billion.</p><p>Wait, wait.</p><p>These vivid examples not only string together outstanding investment achievements that shine throughout the world, but also reflect changes in investment philosophy and Buffett's investment thinking.</p><p>Buffett is an excellent corporate learner who can quickly and accurately identify the key complexities of a company. He can veto an investment within two minutes and make a major investment decision within two days of analysis. He was always prepared, as he said in the company's annual report: \"Noah didn't wait until it rained to start building the ark.\"</p><p>He doesn't care about how the stock market performs in the short term, emphasizing that determining the company's intrinsic value and a fair and safe price are essential elements of investing. He never invests in companies he doesn't understand or companies outside his sphere of competence. In the 1990s, he pointed out that the results of 12 investment decisions in his 40-year career had set him apart.</p><p><b>Warren Buffett is not outdated; value investing remains on a pedestal.</b></p><p>As a living stock market guru, his outstanding historical achievements are certainly something everyone should learn from and deconstruct. However, numerous academic studies do not have a high degree of consensus on his outstanding historical achievements, and some academic researchers even attribute his performance to luck. In recent years, an academic paper from AQR called Buffett's Alpha concluded that Buffett's excess returns came from investing in safe, high-quality, and cheap stocks, and that the returns implied leverage of 1.4 to 1.6 times due to the extremely low capital costs of Berkshire's insurance business.</p><p>However, to date, there haven't been many studies analyzing Buffett's performance from a behavioral finance perspective. Buffett said in 1987:</p><p>\"In my view, successful investing will not come from mysterious formulas, computer programs, or flashing signals from market prices. On the contrary, investors will succeed if they combine successful business judgment with investment actions, achieve unity of knowledge and action, and their emotions are not affected by market fluctuations.\" Actually, I am not a staunch supporter of the market efficiency hypothesis. I believe that the market is not perfect, but it is not completely irrational either.</p><p>Based on my research experience, Buffett's outstanding historical performance stems from his investment style and cost of capital (i.e., the quantitative part of traditional finance), his and Munger's investment behavior (i.e., the part of behavioral finance), and, on the other hand, there is indeed an element of luck. As the saying goes, none of the favorable timing, location, and people are missing.</p><p>So what exactly did he do right to achieve such investment success? Is it extraordinary ability, luck, or a matter of standing up for oneself?<b>This time, we'll discuss three aspects: investment ability, luck, and behavioral finance.</b></p><p>Excellent investment capabilities are the core</p><p>First, we will use the classic Fama-French 5-factor model to gain an in-depth understanding and analysis of Buffett's style. The five-factor model is based on the famous three-factor model, adding the profit factor RMW (Robust Minus Weak) and the investment factor CMA (Conservative Minus Aggressive). Meanwhile, based on the statistical results of the five-factor model, we processed the original model, removing the market capitalization factor SMB (Small Minus Big) and investment factors, which contributed very little and insignificantly, and introducing the Quality factor QMJ (Quality Minus Junk) and Betting factor BAB (Betting Against Beta) of AQR to form a new FF five-factor model, which more accurately divides the contributions of the factors. The specific assumptions and premises of the model will not be elaborated here.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e21a3224526bbc762d1af144bd187fcd\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"662\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The above breaks down Berkshire's excess return attribution analysis. From the traditional Fama-French five-factor model, it can be seen that the market itself and excess returns are the two largest proportions, followed by high value and high profitability. The market itself and excess returns accounted for 80.2% of the contribution. In other words, Buffett's success is partly due to the long-term rise in the market (national fortune) and partly to his own excellence (ability).</p><p>It is important to note that attribution analysis revealed a negative contribution from small market capitalization. This does not necessarily mean that this factor has no effect; it may also be due to discussions regarding the selection of time periods or indicators. Looking at our improved new FF5 model, we can see that most of the excess returns that could not be explained before have dropped from 6.66% to 2.40%, which is largely explained by the two factors of high quality and low beta.</p><p>Buffett's remarkable performance is largely attributed to his use of high leverage to buy safe, high-quality, and inexpensive stocks at low financing costs and hold them for the long term. No matter how you study it, you can find that Buffett is good at using leverage to amplify returns. However, high leverage can only explain part of its amazing performance; simply blindly using high leverage can actually reduce its returns. From a financing perspective, Buffett's main sources of financing are AAA-rated high-quality bonds and the company's cheap premium income, using a cyclical model of debt-driven investment and investment expanding debt.</p><p>In summary, choosing high-quality, low-beta, and high-value stocks is Buffett's style, which is what Buffett himself said: investing in high-quality companies at average prices is better than investing in average companies at cheap prices. His success was one-third due to fate (gambling on the luck of the times and the country), and mostly due to people (his personal investment ability was too excellent).</p><p>Luck always favors the prepared.</p><p>But some people might ask, out of billions of people in the world, only one Buffett has emerged? Is it just luck? Perhaps all the good fortune in the world is concentrated on this one person? Now let's explore whether the altar is a human or a god. During the 38 years from 1980 to 2017, we first conducted a simple CAPM regression analysis of Berkshire Hathaway's returns, yielding the following results:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/84dfe1bf5c4910c0ab0ab36c678559cc\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"388\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Where beta is approximately 0.65, the cross-intercept alpha is 0.0096, and both parameters pass a significant test, indicating that we reject the original assumption that Buffett's excess returns are zero. Furthermore, in terms of yield, we can see that the excess annualized yield obtained through the simple CAPM model reached 11.52%. From a risk perspective, the volatility of its excess returns (the square root of the total variance of returns minus the variance of market returns) can be calculated as 16.83%.</p><p>To better illustrate Buffett's luck component, we use the following model assumptions:</p><p><ul><li>At the same initial moment, 10,000 completely independent investors invested $1 with Buffett;</p><p></li></ul><ul><li>These investors' returns are completely random, and their annual excess returns follow a normal distribution with a mean of 0 and a variance of 16.83%.</p><p></li></ul><ul><li>These investors will hold firmly until the end of 2017, regardless of the price fluctuations during that period.</p><p></li></ul>After 10,000 random fittings, the results are shown in the figure below:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6555420a8a2e9b5b7c819f679de6457c\" tg-width=\"929\" tg-height=\"514\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In the chart above, the blue line represents Buffett's cumulative return, and the orange line indicates that the final cumulative return exceeds Buffett's random fit growth.</p><p>As can be seen from the chart, out of 10,000 investors who followed Buffett's return distribution but fluctuated randomly (based on luck), only 14 ultimately achieved higher investment performance than Buffett! Furthermore, as can be seen from the chart, Buffett's growth line was almost consistently at the top of the entire random fit throughout the entire holding period.</p><p>Its consistently outstanding performance, consistently within the top 0.2%, is certainly not due to random luck, but rather a testament to its genuine investment strength. Some people might not take it seriously, but there are still 14 \"geniuses\" who are more powerful than Buffett. Let's take the returns of these 14 investors and do a simple study to see if we would choose those who seem more \"awesome\".</p><p><ul><li>Fourteen investors who outperformed Buffett were divided into four groups according to their annualized returns, with the investor with the largest, 75th percentile, 25th percentile, and smallest being the representative of each group.</p><p></li></ul><ul><li>Compare the excess returns of these four investors relative to Buffett, and compare the 10-year rolling annualized returns over the same period (1980-2017).</p><p></li></ul><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2166baf7d6a3cd7460b50e8e7f78f36a\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"512\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Have you noticed that these investors who ultimately outperform Buffett (above the red benchmark) may not even survive in the early stages? Take the best performer (blue) as an example. Before 2005, for nearly 25 years, his performance was consistently worse than Buffett's. His catching up with and surpassing Buffett was almost entirely due to the explosive growth after 2010.</p><p>Such fund managers have probably already been abandoned by investors in reality, so there is no question of a subsequent explosive growth.</p><p>It seems that, having read this far, everyone believes that Buffett's pedestal is out of reach. However, this model has many problems in practice. First, the independence of investors. Even if everyone holds different stocks or assets, their returns will not be completely independent. Secondly, regarding the investment holding period, in real life, a long-term, unchanging investment of 38 years, without considering individual lifespan, should only exist in long-term fund management institutions similar to pension funds.</p><p>However, despite its various flaws, this model still illustrates one point well: trying to defeat Buffett on his pedestal through luck? It's very rare.</p><p>Be self-reliant and have a clear understanding of your circle of competence.</p><p>From a behavioral perspective, value investing is actually about making money from the rebound in value after an oversold price created by the market's overreaction to bad news. But how do we determine whether a company is undervalued because its fundamentals are indeed poor, it has lost its market position, or because the market has overreacted under irrational perceptions? These issues, which are difficult to explain in a single sentence, are actually the most challenging aspects of value investing. Value investing is contrarian investing, which requires contrarian thinking and investment behavior that goes against human nature.</p><p>In Expectations and Investments, Nicola Gennaioli, Yueran Ma, and Andrei Shleifer note:</p><p>High profit margins over the past year can make investors overly optimistic; The low profit margins of the past year can make investors overly pessimistic. In Contrarian Investment, Extrapolation, and Risk, Josef Lakonishok, Andrei Shleifer, and Robert Vishny note:</p><p>Some investors tend to be overly optimistic about stocks that have performed well in the past, leading to overvaluations of these \"beautiful\" stocks. Joseph D. Piotroski, Eric C. So in Identifying Expectation Errors in Value/Glamour Strategies: A Fundamental Analysis Approach:</p><p>The mispricing of stocks stems from investors' excessive optimism about \"overvalued\" stocks and excessive pessimism about \"undervalued\" stocks. Buffett's outstanding historical performance, aside from his exceptional investment ability and low capital costs, and his and Munger's superior behavior and psychology, as well as their accumulated self-cultivation, are also necessary conditions for success.</p><p>This includes overcoming humanity's innate Cognitive and Emotional biases. Buffett and Munger's decision-making styles, cognitive abilities, and emotional discipline all complement Buffett's strong performance. In particular, the influence of Munger, a master of investment and philosophy, on Buffett is an important behavioral factor in Buffett's outstanding performance.</p><p>In 2014, Munger defined four factors contributing to Buffett's success: 1. Buffett's structural personal charisma traits, 2. Berkshire's structural decision-making system, 3. Good luck, 4. The bizarre and intensely contagious dedication of some shareholders, other admirers, and even some in the press.</p><p>In my view, both the factors mentioned above and Buffett's investment framework, which he excels at, can reduce the impact of Over-Confident Bias on investment decisions. Overconfidence bias refers to the situation where our subjective confidence in our judgments is relatively higher than what is actually objectively determined. Overconfidence includes three aspects: overestimation, overplacement, and overprecision.</p><p>Although the consequences of different types of overconfidence are not the same, they have one thing in common: they can lead to long-term and continuous bad financial and other decisions.</p><p>Some studies have shown that overconfidence is not only a common weakness of financial market traders, but more importantly, these seasoned traders often ignore this weakness because the bias of overconfidence is deeply rooted in the human subconscious and is often referred to as \"the root of all biases\".</p><p>From the writings and speeches of Buffett and Munger, we can see that they are keenly aware of overconfidence, the root of all biases, and are very careful about it, taking a series of measures to avoid or minimize the negative impact of overconfidence on decision-making. As Munger said:</p><p>\"People have long misjudged their own scope of knowledge, which is one of the most basic characteristics of human nature. Knowing the scope of one's abilities is one of the most difficult things for humans to do. Knowing what one does not know is more useful in life and business than becoming excellent.\" At the end</p><p>Over 38 years, Buffett and Munger together achieved an annualized return of over 20%, a cumulative increase of more than 1,100 times, far outperforming the already decent S&P 500 index. Buffett's earnings are partly due to the dividends of the overall market environment, but more so to his personal stock selection skills, in which buying high-quality, low-volatility and high-value stocks is his investment style.</p><p>Buffett's excess returns are not due to luck, and it is almost unrealistic to expect him to beat him by chance. As Buffett's best partner, Munger, with his personal charisma and personality, as well as his great philosophical system, is a behavioral mentor for Buffett's outstanding historical achievements.</p><p>However, even a combination as strong as Buffett and Munger has historically underperformed the market significantly at times. If value investing can outperform the market every moment, then countless investors will inevitably flock in, making value investing strategies ineffective. It is precisely the large cyclical tracking error that amplifies investors' irrational behavior, rendering the market efficiency hypothesis invalid and creating opportunities for determined value investors to outperform the market over the long term.</p><p>However, the inherent high tracking error of value investing in the market is also a double-edged sword. Out of 100 value investors, there are 100 reasons to believe in value investing, and also 100 painful experiences of practicing value investing but failing because they could not tolerate tracking errors. As value investors, we need to hold stocks that are endlessly despised by Wall Street, we need to stay away from noisy and superficial stock reviews, we need to maintain our beliefs amidst major market fluctuations, and we need to have enough courage to navigate the long cycle of value investing.</p><p>Let us encourage each other with this.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9beffeecb928009bf6287e307899ffe3","relate_stocks":{"BRK.A":"伯克希尔","BRK.B":"伯克希尔B"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1183198336","content_text":"沃伦·巴菲特（Warren Buffett），1930年8月30日出生于美国内布拉斯加州的奥马哈小镇，今天，他年满91岁。\n曾有人问巴菲特关于生命的问题。巴菲特回答：\n“在身体上我已经没有什么价值了，仅剩一点残值，它真的没有什么用了，但它不妨碍我工作，不妨碍我感到快乐，不妨碍我思考。我不感觉我对生活的享受，和热爱有任何减少，事实上，在某种意义上，我所处的游戏正变得越来越有趣，这是富有竞争的游戏，很大一场游戏，我很享受这场游戏。”\n\n这个名字永远带着浓厚的传奇色彩，从当年的美国运通到华盛顿邮报，从可口可乐的经典传奇，到08年金融危机拯救高盛于水火。与此同时，其“价值投资”理念也逐渐成为价值投资者的信条。不仅如此，巴菲特管理的伯克希尔哈撒韦公司，也因为几十万美元一股（A类）的天价，雄踞鄙视链的顶端。\n在孩童时期，巴菲特就显现出对数字的敏感。1950年考入哥伦比亚大学商学院，拜师号称“价值投资者之父”的本杰明·格雷厄姆。在格雷厄姆门下，巴菲特如鱼得水。\n1962年，巴菲特买入第一笔伯克希尔股票。1965年年初，巴菲特获得伯克希尔的控制权。之后伯克希尔的经营性质发生了变化，不再是一家单纯的纺纱企业，而是一个投资实体。巴菲特将其作为经营平台，不断地收购其他利润丰厚的公司和股权，创造投资神话。\n1965~2018年，伯克希尔账面价值的复合年增长率为18.7%，明显超过标普500指数的9.7%。1964~2018年，伯克希尔的整体增长率是1,091,899%（即10918倍以上），而标普500指数为15,019%。这仅是账面价值的增长，伯克希尔内在价值的增长远高于其账面价值。\n\n数据来源：《WarrenBuffett's Letters to Berkshire Shareholders，2018》\n如果你在1965年买入1万美元的伯克希尔股票，经过巴菲特53年鬼斧神工的运作，它今天市场价格就已然变成大约2.47亿美元——值得一提的是这是税后的收入！\n经典案例：巴菲特是怎样做到的\n巴菲特是股权集中投资的代表，其投资案例少且精。这些“战役”的胜利硕果，依靠复利的力量，把伯克希尔推进了美国上市公司市值前十行列。\n喜诗糖果\n1972年，巴菲特以蓝筹印花公司（不久后被并入伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司）的名义花了2500万美元收购了喜诗糖果（See’s Candies）公司。\n喜诗糖果年均销量增长缓慢，而因单价的提升致使净利润暴增。\n\n在1984年3月致股东信里，巴菲特讲道：喜诗糖果比其账面价值要值钱很多。它是一个品牌企业，它的产品能够以高于生产成本的价格销售，并且在未来也会继续拥有这种定价权。\n巴菲特在回顾收购喜诗糖果时，视它为一项梦幻般出色的业务。从1972年至2007年，其为伯克希尔贡献了13.5亿美元的税前利润，只消耗了其中3200万美元用于补充公司的运营资金。在支付了企业利润税之后，剩下的资金来购买其他具有吸引力的企业。\n喜诗公司给伯克希尔带来了许多新的现金源泉，对伯克希尔来说就像《圣经》中形容的一样：“丰腴膏沃且生养众多”。\n政府雇员保险公司（GEICO）\n1976年，巴菲特买进了400万美元的政府雇员保险公司（GEICO）股票。1980年，巴菲特再次大笔买入GEICO股票，总共持有其720万股，占GEICO总股本的33%，总成本4714万美元。1980年之后的15年里，GEICO不断回购公司股票，伯克希尔的股权占比不断提高。1995年，伯克希尔股权占比已提高至50%，并花费23亿美元收购了剩余50%股份。在拥有全部股权后，GEICO不断地为伯克希尔贡献免费的保险浮存金用于投资，帮助伯克希尔的资产净值快速增长。\n巴菲特与政府雇员保险公司（GEICO）的渊源颇深。早在1950年，巴菲特还是格雷厄姆的学生时，就去拜访过GEICO，时任GEICO副总裁的大卫接待了巴菲特并花了约4小时详细地向巴菲特解释保险公司的运营模式，告诉巴菲特GEICO的核心竞争优势在于直销模式带来的低成本优势。\n若说GEICO是一座价值不菲且的众所仰望的商业城堡，那么其与同业间的成本与费用差异就是它的护城河。\n可口可乐\n1987年，可口可乐因百事可乐挑起的装瓶商之间的矛盾而陷入困境，股价较为低迷。1988年，巴菲特开始大量买入可口可乐股份，1988年年底共持有1417万股，成本5.92亿。1989年，继续增持，持股总数翻了一倍达2335万股，总成本10.24亿。1994年，巴菲特又买入了价值2.7亿美元的股票。\n\n至今，可口可乐仍是伯克希尔的重仓股，占总持仓比例的9.79%，持有4亿股，市值超过200亿美元，期间收到的分红总额约为60亿美元。\n巴菲特对可口可乐是真爱。在伯克希尔某次股东大会上，巴菲特表示，自己每天都喝可乐，从1982年开始就一直沿用这样的生活方式。“如果我每天只吃芦笋和西兰花一类的健康蔬菜可以多活一年，每天喝可乐吃巧克力能让我更开心却要折寿一年，那我愿意用一年的生命换取这样的快乐，这就是我的选择。”\n可口可乐是家卓越的公司，管理层关心股东的资本回报和有形现金收益。公司既能经营轻资产业务，同时还能获得极强的盈利能力。公司的增长既有很长的历史持续性，而且未来几十年的前景也很清晰。可口可乐被巴菲特归类为“永恒的持股”。\n散落在伯克希尔年报中的其他经典案例还有：\n1973年开始买入的华盛顿邮报，2014年股权置换，年化收益率12%；\n1986年买入的斯科特费策尔，到2000年，总共为伯克希尔贡献了10.3亿美元的分红；\n1988年开始买入的房地美，2000年全部卖出，税前总收益约为30亿美元；\n2003买入的中国石油H股，2007年7-10月全部卖出，税前投资收益约为35.5亿美元；\n等等。\n一个个鲜活的案例，不仅串成了显赫的投资业绩光耀于世，背后更蕴含着投资哲学及巴菲特投资思维的变化。\n巴菲特是一个出色的企业学习者，能够快速、精确地分辨出一个公司的复杂关键所在。他能在两分钟内否决一项投资，也能在分析的两天之内做出重大投资决策。他时刻准备着，正如他在公司年报中所说：“诺亚并不是等到下雨时才开始建造方舟。”\n他不关心短期股市的走势如何，强调确定公司内在价值和一个公平安全的价格是投资的要素。他从不投资于自己不懂的公司或能力圈之外的公司。在90年代，他曾指出，在他已有的40年职业生涯中，12项投资决策带来的结果已经使他与众不同。\n巴菲特没有过时，价值投资仍在神坛之上\n贵为在世的股神，其优异的历史业绩，一定是大家竞相学习和解构的对象。但众多的学术研究，并没有对其优异的历史业绩有非常高的共识，一些学术研究人员甚至将他的表现归功于运气。最近几年有一篇出自AQR的学术论文，叫巴菲特的超额收益（Buffet's Alpha），这篇论文得出结论，巴菲特的超额收益，来自于投资了安全、优质和廉价的股票，并且因为伯克希尔保险业务超低的资金成本，回报隐含了1.4~1.6倍的杠杆。\n但是，迄今为止，还并没有特别多的从行为金融学的角度，分析巴菲特业绩的研究。巴菲特在1987年时说过：\n\n “在我看来，成功的投资将不会来自于神秘的公式，计算机程序或市场的价格所发出的闪烁的信号。相反，投资者若将成功的商业判断与投资行动结合起来，做到知行合一，情绪不受市场波动影响，便会成功。”\n\n其实我并不是一个市场有效性假说的坚决拥护者，我相信市场不是完美的，但也不是完全不理性的。\n从我的研究经验来看，巴菲特优异的历史业绩，一方面来自于他的投资风格和资金成本（也就是定量的传统金融学的部分），另一方面，来自于他和芒格的投资行为（也就是行为金融学的部分），还有一方面，确实有着一些些运气的成分。正所谓，天时地利人和，一个都不能少。\n所以，他到底做对了什么，可以获得如此的投资成就呢？是能力过人，还是运气使然，抑或是立身行己？这次，我们从投资能力、运气和行为金融，这三个方面来聊聊。\n优异的投资能力是核心\n首先，我们借用经典的Fama-French的5因子模型，深入了解分析巴菲特的风格。五因子模型，是在著名的三因子模型之上，加入了盈利因子RMW（Robust Minus Weak）和投资因子CMA（Conservative Minus Aggressive）。同时，我们根据五因子模型的统计结果，对原模型进行了加工，去掉了贡献很小且不显著的市值因子SMB（Small Minus Big）和投资因子，引入了AQR的质量因子QMJ（Quality Minus Junk）和贝塔因子BAB（Betting Against Beta），组成了新FF五因子模型，更加精确地划分因子的贡献。具体模型的假设前提，在这里就不赘述了。\n\n以上将伯克希尔公司的超额收益归因分析进行拆分，从传统的Fama-French五因子模型，可以看出市场本身和超额收益，是最大的两个占比，其次是高价值和高盈利。其中市场本身和超额收益两者的贡献占比达到80.2%，换句话说，巴菲特能取得如此的成就，一半感谢市场长期的上涨（国运），一半得益于自身优秀（能力）。\n其中需要注意的是，归因分析出来发现小市值是负贡献的，这里不能绝对的说这个因子没有作用，也可能是时间段的选择或者指标的选择方面存在商榷。再看经过我们改良过的新FF5模型，可以发现，之前未能被解释的大部分超额收益，从6.66%，下降到了2.40%，被高质量质和低贝塔两个因子解释了相当一部分。\n巴菲特惊人的业绩，主要归功于以较低的融资成本，使用高杠杆，购买安全、高质量又便宜的股票，并长期持有。无论用什么方式研究，都可以发现巴菲特善于使用杠杆来放大收益。但是，高杠杆只能解释一部分其惊人的表现，如果仅仅盲目的高杠杆，反而会降低其收益。从融资端看，巴菲特的融资来源主要是AAA级的优质债券，和公司廉价的保费收入，以负债驱动投资，投资扩大负债的循环模式。\n总结下来：选择高质量、低贝塔、高价值的股票是巴菲特的风格，也就是巴老自己所说的：用一般的价格投资高质量的公司，优于在便宜的价格投资一般的公司。他的成功，三分之一靠天（赌时代和国家的运气），大部分靠人（个人投资能力太优秀）。\n运气永远是给有准备的人\n但是可能有的人就会问了，全世界几十亿人，也就出了一个巴菲特呀？是不是仅仅只是运气好呢？说不定全世界的好运气都集中在这一个人身上了呢？下面我们就来研究，神坛上到底是人还是神？还是在1980年至2017年这38年的时间里，首先我们对伯克希尔公司的收益率作简单的CAPM回归分析，得到结果如下：\n\n其中beta约为0.65，横截距alpha为0.0096,，并且两个参数都通过显著检验，说明我们拒绝巴菲特的超额收益为0的原假设。进一步而言，从收益率上，我们可以看出，通过简单CAPM模型得到的超额年化收益率达到了11.52%。从风险的角度，可以算得其超额收益的波动率（收益率总方差减市场收益率方差的平方根）为16.83%。\n为了更好说明巴菲特的运气成分，我们采用以下模型假设：\n\n在同一个初始时刻，有10000个完全独立的投资者，和巴菲特一起投资了1美元；\n\n\n这些投资者的收益率完全随机，其每一年的超额收益服从均值为0，方差等于16.83%的正态分布；\n\n\n这些投资者会一直坚定地持有到2017年年底，无论期间的涨跌幅。\n\n做10000次的随机拟合，得到结果如下图：\n\n上图中，蓝色的线表示巴菲特的累计收益，橙色的线表示最终累计收益率超过了巴菲特的随机拟合增长。\n从图中可以看出，10000个服从巴菲特收益分布但是随机波动的投资者（凭运气），仅仅只有14位最终获得了比巴菲特高的投资表现！而且从图上还可以看出，在整个持有期内，巴菲特的增长线几乎一直在整个随机拟合部分的顶部。\n长期保持着“超神”的表现，一直稳定在前0.2%的的范围内，这一定不是随机的运气，而是实实在在的投资实力。可能有的小伙伴还会觉得不以为然，还是有14个“天才”比巴菲特厉害的嘛，那我们取出来这14个投资者的收益率，做个简单的研究，看看我们是否会选择看上去更加“牛叉”的他们。\n\n将14个表现优于巴菲特的投资者，按照年化收益率的大小排序分为四组，取最大、75%分位、25%分位和最小的那一位投资者作为每一组代表；\n\n\n比较这四位投资者相对巴菲特的超额收益，在同时期内（1980年~2017年），比较10年滚动年化收益率。\n\n\n小伙伴们有木有发现，这些最终表现优于巴菲特（红色基准线之上）的投资者，可能根本在前期就活不下来喂！以表现最好的（蓝色）举个例子，其在2005年之前，在近25年的时间内，表现一直比巴菲特差，赶上并超过巴菲特，几乎是得益于2010年之后的爆发。\n这样的基金经理，在现实中恐怕早已被投资人所抛弃了，所以更谈不上之后的井喷式爆发。\n似乎看到这里，小伙伴们都认为神坛之上的巴菲特遥不可及。但是，这个模型在实际情况中却存在许多问题。首先，投资人之间的独立性。即便每个人都持有不一样的股票或资产，他们之间的收益率也不会是完全独立的；其次，投资的持有期，在实际生活中，38年的长期不变的投资，在不考虑个人寿命的情况下，应该只存在类似养老金的长期资金管理机构之上了。\n但是即便这个模型存在种种缺陷，但还是很好地说明了一个问题，想靠运气打败神坛上的巴菲特？难得很。\n立身行己，对能力圈清楚的认知\n价值投资，其实从行为学的角度来看，就是在赚取由于市场对坏消息过激的反应创造出来的超跌后价值回升的钱。但如何判断价值被低估的公司，是因为公司确实基本面差、丧失和市场地位，还是因为市场在不理性的认知下过度反应了呢？这些难以一句话解释清楚的问题，其实就是价值投资最具挑战性的地方。价值投资是逆向投资，逆向投资要求有逆向思维，而且要求有逆人性的投资行为。\nNicola Gennaioli，Yueran Ma，Andrei Shleifer 在《Expectation and Investments》中指出：\n\n 过往一年高的利润率，会使得投资人过度乐观；而过往一年低的利润率，会使得投资人过度悲观。\n\nJosef Lakonishok, Andrei Shleifer, Robert Vishny在《Contrarian Investment, Extrapolation, and Risk》中指出：\n\n 一些投资人往往对过往表现好的股票过于乐观，导致这些“漂亮的”股票估值过高。\n\nJoseph D. Piotroski, Eric C. So在《Identifying Expectation Errors in Value/ Glamour Strategies: A Fundamental Analysis Approach》中指出：\n\n 股票的错误定价来自于投资人对于“高估值”股票的过度乐观和对“低估值”股票的过度悲观。\n\n巴菲特优异的历史业绩，抛开其过人的投资能力和低廉的资金成本，他和芒格在行为和心理上高人一等、日积月累的修行，也是成功的必要条件。\n这包括战胜人类天生的认知偏见（Cognitive Bias）和情感偏见（Emotional Bias）。巴菲特和芒格的决策方式、认知能力或情感纪律，都是巴菲特优势业绩的互补。特别是芒格这位投资和哲学大师，对于巴菲特的影响，都是巴菲特优异业绩的重要行为因素。\n芒格在2014年，定义过巴菲特成功的四个因素：1. 巴菲特的结构性的个人魅力特征，2. 伯克希尔的结构性的决策体系，3. 好的运气，4. 一些股东的、其他仰慕者的、包括新闻界中的一些人的怪异而又激烈的传染性的奉献精神。\n在我看来，不管是上述的因素，还是巴菲特擅长的投资框架，都能减少过度自信偏见（Over-Confident Bias）对投资决策的影响。过度自信偏见是指我们对判断的主观信心相对高于实际客观确定的情况，过度自信包含三个方面，即过度估计（Over Estimation），过度放置（Over Placement）和过度精确（Over Precision）。\n尽管不同类型的过度自信的后果并不相同，但它们的共同点是：会长久和持续地导致错误的财务和其他决策。\n一些研究表明，过度自信不仅是金融市场交易员的普遍弱点，关键是这些身经百战的交易员对这个弱点经常会熟视无睹，因为过度自信这个偏见，深深的根植于人类的潜意识，常被称为“所有偏见的根源”。\n从巴菲特和芒格的文字和演讲中，我们能发现他们敏锐地意识到了过度自信这个所有偏见的根源，并对其非常的小心谨慎，采取一系列的手段，避免或者尽量最小化过度自信对决策的不良影响。就像芒格所说的：\n\n “人们长期错误地评估自己的知识范围，这是人性最基本的特征之一。知道自己的能力范围，是人类要做的最困难的事情之一。知道自己不知道的东西，对生活和业务而言，比变得出色更有用。”\n\n写在最后\n38年间，巴菲特和芒格一起，获得了年化超20%的收益，累计上涨1100多倍，业绩远远优于本来表现还就不错的标普500指数。巴菲特的收益有一部分得益于市场大环境的红利，但更多的归功于个人的选股实力，其中买入高质量、低波动且高价值的股票是其投资风格。\n巴菲特所获得超额收益也不是运气成分，想靠随机打败巴菲特几乎不现实。而芒格作为巴菲特最好的搭档，其个人魅力和性格，以及其伟大的哲学体系，是巴菲特优异历史业绩的行为导师。\n然而就算是强如巴菲特和芒格的组合，其业绩在历史上，也有时不时大幅度跑输大盘的时候。如果价值投资每时每刻都能跑赢大盘，那么必然会有无数的投资人涌入，从而导致价值投资策略失效。而正是有周期性的较大的跟踪误差，放大了投资人的不理性行为，才使得市场有效性假说不成立，为坚定的价值投资者在长周期上跑赢市场带来了机会。\n然而价值投资对市场天然的高跟踪误差，也是一把双刃剑。100个价值投资者有100个相信价值投资的理由，也有100个践行价值投资却无法忍受跟踪误差而失败的惨痛经历。作为一个价值投资者，我们需要持有被华尔街无穷鄙视的股票，我们需要远离喧闹浮躁的神股评，我们需要在市场的大波动中坚定信念，我们更需要有足够大的勇气穿越价值投资的长周期。\n以此，共勉。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BRK.B":0.9,"BRK.A":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5708,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":835733147,"gmtCreate":1629743259689,"gmtModify":1676530118050,"author":{"id":"3586167248367118","authorId":"3586167248367118","name":"TanTH","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f9317bf33bd64e46c21c589d7bac5157","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586167248367118","idStr":"3586167248367118"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Good&nbsp;","listText":"Good&nbsp;","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/835733147","repostId":"2161772849","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2161772849","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1629740700,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2161772849?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-08-24 01:45","market":"fut","language":"zh","title":"A multi-headed carnival! Is the Federal Reserve in a dilemma? The US dollar plummeted, triggering a \"chorus of gains\" in financial markets.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2161772849","media":"FX168","summary":"FX168财经报社(北美)讯 周一(8月23日)美市盘中，美元指数持续走低，并刷新日低至93.01，因市场对美国货币政策方向的疑虑引发获利回吐；美元回落以及新冠疫情肆虐引发的担忧情绪提振了黄金，现货黄金终于突破1800...","content":"<p><html><body><div><div>FX168 Financial News Agency (North America) reported that the US Dollar Index continued to decline during US trading on Monday (August 23), hitting a daily low of 93.01, as profit-taking triggered by market concerns about the direction of US monetary policy. The decline in the US dollar and concerns caused by the COVID-19 pandemic boosted gold prices, with spot gold finally breaking through the $1,800 mark, up $30 from its daily low. The crude oil market was boosted by a weaker dollar and zero new confirmed cases in China, with US WTI crude oil rising sharply by 6%. All three major U.S. stock indexes rose, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average up 300 points, or 0.8%, and the Nasdaq Composite up 1.6%. As the COVID-19 pandemic continues to surge, the Federal Reserve will hold its annual seminar later this week in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's economic outlook speech and the timing of reducing quantitative easing have attracted much attention.</p><p><strong>Data released intraday in the United States is mixed: US August<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MRKT\">Markit</a>The preliminary reading of the services PMI came in at 55.2, a new low since December last year. The preliminary U.S. manufacturing PMI for August fell to 61.2 from 63.4 in July.</strong></p><p>The agency commented that U.S. business activity continued to slow, with growth slowing to an eight-month low in August amid raw material shortages, labor shortages, and rising COVID-19 cases. The decline in the PMI this month highlights the extent to which supply chain disruptions are hitting companies that are already struggling to meet demand. Service providers and manufacturers continue to face challenges in attracting workers and obtaining supplies.</p><p><strong>However, another piece of data released later performed strongly: U.S. existing home sales in July were 5.99 million, compared to the expected 5.81 million and the previous value revised to 5.87 million.</strong></p><p>According to analysts, U.S. existing home sales increased for the second consecutive month in July, as home prices fell from the previous month's record level due to a moderate improvement in inventory. The increase in sales suggests that this year's downward trend in sales may have ended, based on last year's 14-year high.</p><p>The dollar fell across the board on Monday, after recording its biggest weekly gain in more than two months last week, as profit-taking triggered concerns about the direction of U.S. monetary policy.</p><p>Higher-risk currencies such as the Australian dollar, Norwegian krone, and Canadian dollar were the main beneficiaries of the weakening dollar, all of which rose by more than 0.5%.</p><p>the US Dollar Index hit a nine-month high last week, up nearly 5% from its May low, as investors further bet that the Federal Reserve will begin tapering its pandemic-era stimulus policies ahead of Europe and Japan.</p><p><strong>In U.S. trading, the the US Dollar Index, which measures the dollar's performance against other major currencies, fell nearly 0.5% to 93.01, after hitting a high of 93.73 last Friday, its highest level since early November.</strong></p><p><img oldsrc=\"W020210824062902363823.png\" src=\"https://www.fx168.com/all/2108/W020210824062902363823.png\"/></p><p>(the US Dollar Index 30-minute chart, source: FX168)</p><p><strong>But Dallas Fed President Kaplan said last Friday that he might reconsider whether it was necessary to start scaling back bond purchases ahead of schedule if the virus damages the economy. Kaplan is a well-known hawk.</strong></p><p><strong>Kaplan was the first Federal Reserve official to suggest that tapering should take place as soon as possible, and his views indicate that the Fed's hawks are wavering ahead of the Jackson Hole meeting.</strong></p><p>“Kaplan said he might adjust his view on asset purchases if Delta variant cases continue to rise, so the Fed’s dovish rhetoric weighed on the dollar, as rising concerns about Delta were detrimental to the dollar,” said a trader at a Japanese bank.</p><p>Some analysts believe that further spread of the variant could derail the Federal Reserve's plans to scale back its pandemic-era stimulus program by the end of the year.</p><p><strong>Traders are eagerly awaiting the Jackson Hole seminar for clues about the Federal Reserve's timetable for tapering its $120 billion monthly bond purchase program. The event takes place on Thursdays and Fridays. The Federal Reserve had originally decided to hold its meetings in a hybrid of virtual and in-person formats, but last Friday decided to go entirely virtual given the rising risk of the virus.</strong></p><p><strong>Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will discuss the economic outlook at the meeting, and traders will carefully analyze his remarks for clues about the timing and pace of policy tightening. Powell has so far downplayed the impact of the Delta incident.</strong></p><p>Nomura Securities analyst Amemiya said in a report that Chairman Powell's speech will be titled \"Economic Outlook,\" \"which may suggest that his speech may focus more on the short term.\"</p><p>Amemiya added, “Given the recently released deteriorating data and the pandemic situation, we see some of the risks Powell is concerned about are increased uncertainty due to the latest surge in COVID-19 cases.” “At the very least, we believe recent comments from Fed officials support our view that the Fed will announce a tapering of its bond purchases in December, although the FOMC tends to announce it in November before its July meeting.”</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MTU\">MUFG Financial</a>In a report, the group's strategists stated, \"Risk aversion will support the dollar. While a cautious Federal Reserve should pare the dollar's gains, given the rising risk of COVID-19, we need to make some adjustments to our year-end foreign exchange forecasts to reflect a reduction in the dollar's depreciation.\"</p><p>As the dollar weakened, market concerns that the worsening COVID-19 pandemic could hinder global economic growth lingered, boosting gold prices.</p><p><strong>Earlier in the day, spot gold broke through the $1,800 mark, hitting a daily high of $1,806.37, up $30 from the daily low.</strong></p><p><img oldsrc=\"W020210824062902511119.png\" src=\"https://www.fx168.com/all/2108/W020210824062902511119.png\"/></p><p>(30-minute spot gold chart, source: FX168)</p><p>the US Dollar Index fell 0.3%, retreating from last week's nine-and-a-half-month high, sending gold prices down among other currency holders.</p><p>“The slight weakening of the dollar offset the impact of rising yields and supported gold prices,” said Ole Hansen, an analyst at Saxo Bank.</p><p>\"In the short term, we don't expect much to change because we are waiting for Jackson Hole to get an indication of whether the Federal Reserve is moving towards tapering or whether the latest virus outbreak has put the brakes on those expectations.\"</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>Analysts said in a research report that gold prices will continue to \"moderately rise\" due to a weaker dollar and recovering demand in emerging markets.</p><p>\"However, for gold to rise significantly, widespread safe-haven events, such as the resurgence of inflation concerns, would be necessary, which would trigger demand for defensive inflation hedges,\" they said.</p><p>Oil prices jumped, ending their worst seven-day losing streak since 2019, as the dollar weakened and traders believed the recent sell-off was excessive.</p><p><strong>The price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures, the benchmark for U.S. crude oil, is currently up $3.65 to trade at $65.79 per barrel, a gain of 5.87%. Earlier that day, oil prices rose more than 6% to an intraday high of $66.00 a barrel, marking their best single-day gain since November of last year.</strong></p><p><img oldsrc=\"W020210824062902653862.png\" src=\"https://www.fx168.com/all/2108/W020210824062902653862.png\"/></p><p>(30-minute chart of WTI crude oil futures, source: FX168)</p><p>This sharp rise marks the beginning of an improvement for the contract from last week's nearly 9% decline, marking its worst weekly performance since October 2020 and the second negative growth in three weeks. WTI crude oil closed at its lowest level since May 20 last Friday.</p><p>On Monday, international benchmark Brent crude oil prices rose 5% to $68.38 a barrel, a gain of $3.20, after hitting their worst level since October 2020 in a week.</p><p>Blue Line Futures analysts pointed out: \"The news of zero new cases in China undoubtedly provides a tailwind, as it adds a glimmer of hope at the end of the COVID-19 tunnel and brings a breath of fresh air to the demand landscape.\" \"Furthermore, the US dollar has fallen from its recent highs, providing broad support for the commodity market.\"</p><p>Previously, with the spread of the Delta variant of the novel coronavirus, fears of slowing demand led to a new round of lockdowns in countries such as Japan and New Zealand, causing oil prices to fall. In addition, weak economic data from China, the world's largest crude oil importer, has also put pressure on oil prices. The latest U.S. inventory report also shows that gasoline inventories have increased, and U.S. producers have also increased their production.</p><p>But some Wall Street firms said the sell-off looked a bit excessive.</p><p>Commerzbank analysts pointed out: \"We believe that price weakness is excessive and that this is more related to the psychology of market participants than to the deterioration of fundamental data.\"</p><p>U.S. stocks rose in early trading on Monday after a volatile week as investors focused on key events that the Federal Reserve might hint at tapering its stimulus program.</p><p><strong>The Dow Jones rose 300 points, or 0.8%. The S&P 500 rose 1.0%, and the Nasdaq Composite Index rose 1.6%.</strong></p><p><img oldsrc=\"W020210824062902827490.png\" src=\"https://www.fx168.com/all/2108/W020210824062902827490.png\"/></p><p>(Image source: CNBC)</p><p>Major stock indexes have begun to rebound after a week of declines as investors grow concerned that the Federal Reserve's potential withdrawal of monetary stimulus could slow the economic recovery.</p><p>The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1.1% last week, and the S&P 500 index fell nearly 0.6%, ending a two-week rally. The Nasdaq index, which is dominated by technology stocks, fell 0.7% last week.</p><p>\"We suspect that upcoming monetary policy changes, shifts in growth and value, and the upward trajectory of COVID-19 cases are challenging investor confidence,\" said Craig Johnson, technology market strategist at Piper Sandler, in a report.</p><p>Major stock indices are expected to rise slightly in August. So far this month, the S&P 500 is up 1.1%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 0.5% and the Nasdaq Composite is up 0.3%.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UBS\">UBS</a>Rod von Lipsey, managing director of Private Wealth Management, said, \"August has always been a volatile month for the market, and this year is no exception. Investors are currently very worried.\"</p><p>\"The rise in COVID-19 cases and the downward spiral in Afghanistan are creating a crisis of confidence at a time when many investors are on vacation.\"</p><p></div><div><div><ul><li>dollar</li><li>gold</li><li>U.S. stock market</li><li>crude oil</li><li>Federal Reserve</li><li>Powell</li><li>Existing house sales</li><li>US PMI</li></ul></div><div><div><div>share</div><div><div></div></div></div><div></div></div></div></div></body></html></p>","source":"fxdaily_fut","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>A multi-headed carnival! Is the Federal Reserve in a dilemma? The US dollar plummeted, triggering a \"chorus of gains\" in financial markets.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nA multi-headed carnival! Is the Federal Reserve in a dilemma? The US dollar plummeted, triggering a \"chorus of gains\" in financial markets.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">FX168</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-24 01:45</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><body><div><div>FX168 Financial News Agency (North America) reported that the US Dollar Index continued to decline during US trading on Monday (August 23), hitting a daily low of 93.01, as profit-taking triggered by market concerns about the direction of US monetary policy. The decline in the US dollar and concerns caused by the COVID-19 pandemic boosted gold prices, with spot gold finally breaking through the $1,800 mark, up $30 from its daily low. The crude oil market was boosted by a weaker dollar and zero new confirmed cases in China, with US WTI crude oil rising sharply by 6%. All three major U.S. stock indexes rose, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average up 300 points, or 0.8%, and the Nasdaq Composite up 1.6%. As the COVID-19 pandemic continues to surge, the Federal Reserve will hold its annual seminar later this week in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's economic outlook speech and the timing of reducing quantitative easing have attracted much attention.</p><p><strong>Data released intraday in the United States is mixed: US August<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MRKT\">Markit</a>The preliminary reading of the services PMI came in at 55.2, a new low since December last year. The preliminary U.S. manufacturing PMI for August fell to 61.2 from 63.4 in July.</strong></p><p>The agency commented that U.S. business activity continued to slow, with growth slowing to an eight-month low in August amid raw material shortages, labor shortages, and rising COVID-19 cases. The decline in the PMI this month highlights the extent to which supply chain disruptions are hitting companies that are already struggling to meet demand. Service providers and manufacturers continue to face challenges in attracting workers and obtaining supplies.</p><p><strong>However, another piece of data released later performed strongly: U.S. existing home sales in July were 5.99 million, compared to the expected 5.81 million and the previous value revised to 5.87 million.</strong></p><p>According to analysts, U.S. existing home sales increased for the second consecutive month in July, as home prices fell from the previous month's record level due to a moderate improvement in inventory. The increase in sales suggests that this year's downward trend in sales may have ended, based on last year's 14-year high.</p><p>The dollar fell across the board on Monday, after recording its biggest weekly gain in more than two months last week, as profit-taking triggered concerns about the direction of U.S. monetary policy.</p><p>Higher-risk currencies such as the Australian dollar, Norwegian krone, and Canadian dollar were the main beneficiaries of the weakening dollar, all of which rose by more than 0.5%.</p><p>the US Dollar Index hit a nine-month high last week, up nearly 5% from its May low, as investors further bet that the Federal Reserve will begin tapering its pandemic-era stimulus policies ahead of Europe and Japan.</p><p><strong>In U.S. trading, the the US Dollar Index, which measures the dollar's performance against other major currencies, fell nearly 0.5% to 93.01, after hitting a high of 93.73 last Friday, its highest level since early November.</strong></p><p><img oldsrc=\"W020210824062902363823.png\" src=\"https://www.fx168.com/all/2108/W020210824062902363823.png\"/></p><p>(the US Dollar Index 30-minute chart, source: FX168)</p><p><strong>But Dallas Fed President Kaplan said last Friday that he might reconsider whether it was necessary to start scaling back bond purchases ahead of schedule if the virus damages the economy. Kaplan is a well-known hawk.</strong></p><p><strong>Kaplan was the first Federal Reserve official to suggest that tapering should take place as soon as possible, and his views indicate that the Fed's hawks are wavering ahead of the Jackson Hole meeting.</strong></p><p>“Kaplan said he might adjust his view on asset purchases if Delta variant cases continue to rise, so the Fed’s dovish rhetoric weighed on the dollar, as rising concerns about Delta were detrimental to the dollar,” said a trader at a Japanese bank.</p><p>Some analysts believe that further spread of the variant could derail the Federal Reserve's plans to scale back its pandemic-era stimulus program by the end of the year.</p><p><strong>Traders are eagerly awaiting the Jackson Hole seminar for clues about the Federal Reserve's timetable for tapering its $120 billion monthly bond purchase program. The event takes place on Thursdays and Fridays. The Federal Reserve had originally decided to hold its meetings in a hybrid of virtual and in-person formats, but last Friday decided to go entirely virtual given the rising risk of the virus.</strong></p><p><strong>Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will discuss the economic outlook at the meeting, and traders will carefully analyze his remarks for clues about the timing and pace of policy tightening. Powell has so far downplayed the impact of the Delta incident.</strong></p><p>Nomura Securities analyst Amemiya said in a report that Chairman Powell's speech will be titled \"Economic Outlook,\" \"which may suggest that his speech may focus more on the short term.\"</p><p>Amemiya added, “Given the recently released deteriorating data and the pandemic situation, we see some of the risks Powell is concerned about are increased uncertainty due to the latest surge in COVID-19 cases.” “At the very least, we believe recent comments from Fed officials support our view that the Fed will announce a tapering of its bond purchases in December, although the FOMC tends to announce it in November before its July meeting.”</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MTU\">MUFG Financial</a>In a report, the group's strategists stated, \"Risk aversion will support the dollar. While a cautious Federal Reserve should pare the dollar's gains, given the rising risk of COVID-19, we need to make some adjustments to our year-end foreign exchange forecasts to reflect a reduction in the dollar's depreciation.\"</p><p>As the dollar weakened, market concerns that the worsening COVID-19 pandemic could hinder global economic growth lingered, boosting gold prices.</p><p><strong>Earlier in the day, spot gold broke through the $1,800 mark, hitting a daily high of $1,806.37, up $30 from the daily low.</strong></p><p><img oldsrc=\"W020210824062902511119.png\" src=\"https://www.fx168.com/all/2108/W020210824062902511119.png\"/></p><p>(30-minute spot gold chart, source: FX168)</p><p>the US Dollar Index fell 0.3%, retreating from last week's nine-and-a-half-month high, sending gold prices down among other currency holders.</p><p>“The slight weakening of the dollar offset the impact of rising yields and supported gold prices,” said Ole Hansen, an analyst at Saxo Bank.</p><p>\"In the short term, we don't expect much to change because we are waiting for Jackson Hole to get an indication of whether the Federal Reserve is moving towards tapering or whether the latest virus outbreak has put the brakes on those expectations.\"</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>Analysts said in a research report that gold prices will continue to \"moderately rise\" due to a weaker dollar and recovering demand in emerging markets.</p><p>\"However, for gold to rise significantly, widespread safe-haven events, such as the resurgence of inflation concerns, would be necessary, which would trigger demand for defensive inflation hedges,\" they said.</p><p>Oil prices jumped, ending their worst seven-day losing streak since 2019, as the dollar weakened and traders believed the recent sell-off was excessive.</p><p><strong>The price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures, the benchmark for U.S. crude oil, is currently up $3.65 to trade at $65.79 per barrel, a gain of 5.87%. Earlier that day, oil prices rose more than 6% to an intraday high of $66.00 a barrel, marking their best single-day gain since November of last year.</strong></p><p><img oldsrc=\"W020210824062902653862.png\" src=\"https://www.fx168.com/all/2108/W020210824062902653862.png\"/></p><p>(30-minute chart of WTI crude oil futures, source: FX168)</p><p>This sharp rise marks the beginning of an improvement for the contract from last week's nearly 9% decline, marking its worst weekly performance since October 2020 and the second negative growth in three weeks. WTI crude oil closed at its lowest level since May 20 last Friday.</p><p>On Monday, international benchmark Brent crude oil prices rose 5% to $68.38 a barrel, a gain of $3.20, after hitting their worst level since October 2020 in a week.</p><p>Blue Line Futures analysts pointed out: \"The news of zero new cases in China undoubtedly provides a tailwind, as it adds a glimmer of hope at the end of the COVID-19 tunnel and brings a breath of fresh air to the demand landscape.\" \"Furthermore, the US dollar has fallen from its recent highs, providing broad support for the commodity market.\"</p><p>Previously, with the spread of the Delta variant of the novel coronavirus, fears of slowing demand led to a new round of lockdowns in countries such as Japan and New Zealand, causing oil prices to fall. In addition, weak economic data from China, the world's largest crude oil importer, has also put pressure on oil prices. The latest U.S. inventory report also shows that gasoline inventories have increased, and U.S. producers have also increased their production.</p><p>But some Wall Street firms said the sell-off looked a bit excessive.</p><p>Commerzbank analysts pointed out: \"We believe that price weakness is excessive and that this is more related to the psychology of market participants than to the deterioration of fundamental data.\"</p><p>U.S. stocks rose in early trading on Monday after a volatile week as investors focused on key events that the Federal Reserve might hint at tapering its stimulus program.</p><p><strong>The Dow Jones rose 300 points, or 0.8%. The S&P 500 rose 1.0%, and the Nasdaq Composite Index rose 1.6%.</strong></p><p><img oldsrc=\"W020210824062902827490.png\" src=\"https://www.fx168.com/all/2108/W020210824062902827490.png\"/></p><p>(Image source: CNBC)</p><p>Major stock indexes have begun to rebound after a week of declines as investors grow concerned that the Federal Reserve's potential withdrawal of monetary stimulus could slow the economic recovery.</p><p>The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1.1% last week, and the S&P 500 index fell nearly 0.6%, ending a two-week rally. The Nasdaq index, which is dominated by technology stocks, fell 0.7% last week.</p><p>\"We suspect that upcoming monetary policy changes, shifts in growth and value, and the upward trajectory of COVID-19 cases are challenging investor confidence,\" said Craig Johnson, technology market strategist at Piper Sandler, in a report.</p><p>Major stock indices are expected to rise slightly in August. So far this month, the S&P 500 is up 1.1%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 0.5% and the Nasdaq Composite is up 0.3%.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UBS\">UBS</a>Rod von Lipsey, managing director of Private Wealth Management, said, \"August has always been a volatile month for the market, and this year is no exception. Investors are currently very worried.\"</p><p>\"The rise in COVID-19 cases and the downward spiral in Afghanistan are creating a crisis of confidence at a time when many investors are on vacation.\"</p><p></div><div><div><ul><li>dollar</li><li>gold</li><li>U.S. stock market</li><li>crude oil</li><li>Federal Reserve</li><li>Powell</li><li>Existing house sales</li><li>US PMI</li></ul></div><div><div><div>share</div><div><div></div></div></div><div></div></div></div></div></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://www.fx168.com/all/2108/5289476.shtml\">FX168</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://www.fx168.com/all/2108/W020210824062913689736.jpg","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF博时","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares",".DJI":"道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF","DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares","OEX":"标普100"},"source_url":"https://www.fx168.com/all/2108/5289476.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2161772849","content_text":"FX168财经报社(北美)讯 周一(8月23日)美市盘中，美元指数持续走低，并刷新日低至93.01，因市场对美国货币政策方向的疑虑引发获利回吐；美元回落以及新冠疫情肆虐引发的担忧情绪提振了黄金，现货黄金终于突破1800美元大关，较日低拉升30美元；原油市场则受到美元走软以及中国零新增确诊病例的提振，美国WTI原油大幅上涨6%；美股三大股指齐涨，其中道指上涨300点或0.8%，纳指则上涨1.6%。在新冠疫情持续反扑之际，美联储将于本周稍晚在怀俄明州杰克逊霍尔举行年度研讨会。美联储主席鲍威尔的经济展望演讲和缩减量化宽松的时间等备受关注。美国日内公布的数据良莠不齐：美国8月Markit服务业PMI初值录得55.2，创去年12月以来新低。 美国8月份制造业PMI初值从7月份的63.4降至61.2。机构评论称，美国企业活动继续放缓，在原材料短缺、劳动力短缺和新冠病例增加的背景下，8月份的增长放缓至八个月低点。本月PMI的回落凸显出供应链中断对已经难以满足需求的企业的打击程度。服务供应商和制造商继续面临吸引工人和获得供应的挑战。不过随后公布的另一项数据表现强劲：美国7月成屋销售数据为599万户，预期581万户，前值修正为587万户。机构点评称，美国7月成屋销售连续第二个月增加，因库存温和改善，房价较前月纪录水准回落。销售额的增长表明，从去年的14年高点来看，今年的销售额下降趋势可能已经结束。美元周一全线下跌，上周录得逾两个月来最大单周升幅，因对美国货币政策方向的疑虑引发获利回吐。澳元、挪威克朗和加元等风险较高的货币是美元走软的主要受益者，这些货币的涨幅均超过了0.5%。美元指数上周触及九个月高点，较5月低点上涨近5%，因投资者进一步押注美联储将先于欧洲和日本开始缩减疫情时期的刺激政策。美市盘中，衡量美元兑其他主要货币表现的美元指数下跌近0.5%，至93.01，上周五兴触及93.73高点，为自去年11月初以来的最高水平。（美元指数30分钟走势图，来源：FX168）但达拉斯联储主席卡普兰上周五表示，如果病毒损害经济，他可能会重新考虑是否有必要提前开始缩减购债规模。卡普兰是知名鹰派人士。卡普兰是第一个表示应该尽早缩债的美联储官员，其看法表明在杰克逊霍尔会议召开前，美联储鹰派有所动摇。“卡普兰表示，如果德尔塔变种病例持续增加，他可能调整对资产购买的看法，因此美联储的鸽派言论打压美元，因对德尔塔的担忧升温对美元不利，”一家日本银行的交易员称。一些分析师认为，该变体的进一步扩散可能会破坏美联储在年底前缩减其大流行时期刺激计划的计划。交易员正急切地等待杰克逊霍尔研讨会，以寻找美联储缩减每月1200亿美元债券购买计划时间表的线索。该活动在周四和周五进行。美联储原本决定以虚拟和现场混合的方式举行会议，但鉴于病毒风险不断上升，上周五决定全部采用虚拟方式。美联储主席鲍威尔将在会议上讨论经济前景，交易商将仔细分析他的讲话，以寻求有关政策收紧时机和步伐的线索。鲍威尔迄今一直在淡化德尔塔事件的影响。野村证券分析师Amemiya在一份报告中称，鲍威尔主席的演讲将以“经济展望”为题，“可能暗示他的演讲可能更注重短期”。Amemiya补充说:“鉴于最近公布的数据的恶化和大流行形势，我们看到鲍威尔关注的一些风险是，由于最新的新冠病例激增，不确定性增加。”“至少，我们认为美联储官员最近的言论支持了我们的观点，即美联储将在12月宣布缩减购债规模，尽管FOMC倾向于在7月会议之前在11月宣布。”三菱日联金融集团策略师在一份报告中称，“风险规避将支撑美元。尽管谨慎的美联储应缩小美元的涨幅，但鉴于新冠肺炎风险上升，我们需要对年底外汇预测进行一些调整，以显示美元贬值幅度减小。”随着美元回落，市场对新冠肺炎疫情加剧可能阻碍全球经济增长的担忧挥之不去，金价受到提振上涨。日内稍早，现货金冲破1800美元大关，刷新日高至1806.37美元，较日低拉升30美元。（现货黄金30分钟走势图，来源：FX168）美元指数下跌0.3%，从上周九个半月的高点回落，令其他货币持有者的黄金价格下跌。“美元小幅走软，抵消了收益率上升的影响，并扶助金价，”盛宝银行分析师Ole Hansen表示。“短期内，我们预计不会有太大的变化，因为我们正在等待杰克逊霍尔得到一个迹象，即美联储是否正走向缩减规模，或者最新的病毒爆发是否已经给这些预期踩了刹车。”高盛分析师在一份研究报告中表示，由于美元走弱和新兴市场需求复苏，金价将继续“温和走高”。“但黄金若要大幅走高，就必须出现普遍的避险事件，例如通胀担忧卷土重来，这将引发对防御性通胀对冲的需求，”他们表示。油价跳涨，结束了自2019年以来原油价格最糟糕的连续7天下跌，原因是美元回落，交易员认为近期的抛售过度。美国原油基准西德克萨斯中质(WTI)原油期货价格现上涨3.65美元，交投于65.79美元/桶，涨幅5.87%。当天早些时候，油价一度上涨逾6%，触及66.00美元/桶的盘中高点，创下去年11月以来的最佳单日涨幅。（WTI原油期货30分钟走势图，来源：FX168）这一大幅上涨标志着该合约从上周下跌近9%的情况开始好转，这是自2020年10月以来最差的一周表现，也是三周来第二次出现负增长。WTI原油上周五收于5月20日以来的最低水平。周一，国际基准布伦特原油价格上涨了5%，至68.38美元/桶，涨幅为3.20美元，此前一周油价创下了自2020年10月以来的最差水平。蓝线期货分析师指出:“中国零新增病例的消息无疑提供了一股顺风，因为它在新冠疫情隧道的尽头增添了一丝曙光，给需求格局带来了一丝新鲜空气。”“此外，美元已从近期高点回落，为大宗商品市场提供了广泛支撑。”此前，随着新冠病毒德尔塔变种的传播，人们担心需求会放缓，导致日本和新西兰等国实施新一轮封锁，油价随之下跌。此外，作为全球最大原油进口国的中国疲弱的经济数据也给油价带来了压力。美国最新库存报告还显示，汽油库存增加，美国生产商的产量也有所增加。但一些华尔街公司表示，抛售看起来有些过头了。德国商业银行分析师指出:“我们认为价格疲软过度，并认为这更多地与市场参与者的心理有关，而不是与基本面数据的恶化有关。”美国股市周一早盘走高，此前美国股市经历了动荡的一周，投资者关注美联储可能暗示缩减刺激计划的关键事件。道琼斯指数上涨300点，涨幅0.8%。标准普尔500指数上涨1.0%，纳斯达克综合指数上涨1.6%。（图源：CNBC）由于投资者越来越担心美联储可能撤出货币刺激措施的举动可能会减缓经济复苏，主要股指在经历了一周的下跌后开始回升。道指上周下跌1.1%，标准普尔500指数下跌近0.6%，结束了连续两周的上涨势头。以科技股为主的纳斯达克指数上周下跌0.7%。Piper Sandler技术市场策略师Craig Johnson在一份报告中表示:“我们怀疑，即将到来的货币政策变化、增长与价值的转变以及新冠肺炎病例的上升轨迹，正在挑战投资者的信心。”8月份主要股指将小幅上涨。本月迄今，标准普尔500指数上涨了1.1%，而道指上涨了0.5%，纳斯达克指数上涨了0.3%。瑞银私人财富管理董事总经理Rod von Lipsey称，“8月历来是市场波动较大的月份，今年也不例外，投资者目前忧心重重。”“新冠肺炎病例的上升和阿富汗的螺旋式下降正在制造一场信心危机，而此时许多投资者正在度假。”\n\n\n\n\n\n                                                    美元\n                                                \n\n\n\n                                                    黄金\n                                                \n\n\n\n                                                    美国股市\n                                                \n\n\n\n                                                    原油\n                                                \n\n\n\n                                                    美联储\n                                                \n\n\n\n                                                    鲍威尔\n                                                \n\n\n\n                                                    成屋销售\n                                                \n\n\n\n                                                    美国PMI\n                                                \n\n\n\n\n\n分享","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.6,"513500":0.6,"PSQ":0.6,"DOG":0.6,".SPX":0.6,"SDOW":0.6,"IVV":0.6,".IXIC":1,"OEX":0.6,"QQQ":0.6,".DJI":1,"NQmain":0.6,"QID":0.6,"SSO":0.6,"UPRO":0.6,"SDS":0.6,"SPXU":0.6,"SPY":1,"UDOW":0.6,"SQQQ":0.6,"DDM":0.6,"DXD":0.6,"TQQQ":0.6,"DJX":0.6,"MNQmain":0.6,"QLD":0.6,"OEF":0.6,"ESmain":0.6,"SH":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4829,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":899434735,"gmtCreate":1628209894027,"gmtModify":1703503135627,"author":{"id":"3586167248367118","authorId":"3586167248367118","name":"TanTH","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f9317bf33bd64e46c21c589d7bac5157","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586167248367118","idStr":"3586167248367118"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"&nbsp;Good","listText":"&nbsp;Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/899434735","repostId":"1186213069","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":6119,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":805025616,"gmtCreate":1627826287135,"gmtModify":1703496322391,"author":{"id":"3586167248367118","authorId":"3586167248367118","name":"TanTH","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f9317bf33bd64e46c21c589d7bac5157","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586167248367118","idStr":"3586167248367118"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/805025616","repostId":"2156169561","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":6435,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":805025843,"gmtCreate":1627826259682,"gmtModify":1703496322227,"author":{"id":"3586167248367118","authorId":"3586167248367118","name":"TanTH","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f9317bf33bd64e46c21c589d7bac5157","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586167248367118","idStr":"3586167248367118"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Good&nbsp;","listText":"Good&nbsp;","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/805025843","repostId":"1170169817","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1170169817","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1627819590,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1170169817?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-08-01 20:06","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"China Evergrande: Sells 11% stake in Hengten Networks for HK$3.25 billion","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1170169817","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"8月1日，恒腾网络在港交所公告称，中国恒大出售恒腾网络合计11%股权，总代价为32.5亿港元，每股3.20港元。其中，买方一为腾讯控股全资持有的附属公司，其收购恒腾网络7%股份。截至公告日期，买方一持","content":"<p>On August 1, Hengten Networks announced on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange that China Evergrande sold a total of 11% of Hengten Networks' equity for a total consideration of HK$3.25 billion, at HK$3.20 per share. Buyer 1 is a wholly-owned subsidiary of Tencent Holdings, which acquired 7% of Hengten Networks' shares. As of the date of this announcement, Buyer 1 holds approximately 16.90% of the issued share capital of Hengten Networks; China Evergrande holds approximately 37.55% of the issued share capital of Hengten Networks.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4e91ded77d46b3fdfb7cd8634a833e8e\" tg-width=\"1135\" tg-height=\"768\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>China Evergrande: Sells 11% stake in Hengten Networks for HK$3.25 billion</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nChina Evergrande: Sells 11% stake in Hengten Networks for HK$3.25 billion\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-08-01 20:06</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>On August 1, Hengten Networks announced on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange that China Evergrande sold a total of 11% of Hengten Networks' equity for a total consideration of HK$3.25 billion, at HK$3.20 per share. Buyer 1 is a wholly-owned subsidiary of Tencent Holdings, which acquired 7% of Hengten Networks' shares. As of the date of this announcement, Buyer 1 holds approximately 16.90% of the issued share capital of Hengten Networks; China Evergrande holds approximately 37.55% of the issued share capital of Hengten Networks.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4e91ded77d46b3fdfb7cd8634a833e8e\" tg-width=\"1135\" tg-height=\"768\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c6fcdaee085f89a043698b2126b966fe","relate_stocks":{"00136":"中国儒意"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1170169817","content_text":"8月1日，恒腾网络在港交所公告称，中国恒大出售恒腾网络合计11%股权，总代价为32.5亿港元，每股3.20港元。其中，买方一为腾讯控股全资持有的附属公司，其收购恒腾网络7%股份。截至公告日期，买方一持有恒腾网络已发行股本之约16.90%；而中国恒大持有恒腾网络已发行股本之约37.55%。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"03333":0.9,"00136":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":6544,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":173312017,"gmtCreate":1626616074139,"gmtModify":1703762350161,"author":{"id":"3586167248367118","authorId":"3586167248367118","name":"TanTH","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f9317bf33bd64e46c21c589d7bac5157","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586167248367118","idStr":"3586167248367118"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Good&nbsp;","listText":"Good&nbsp;","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/173312017","repostId":"1134210398","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1134210398","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"创业与投资专业门户","home_visible":1,"media_name":"投资界","id":"1096839439","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2531123ee54a22588d693ba65ab705b3"},"pubTimestamp":1626603399,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1134210398?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-18 18:16","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Lei Jun invested in three beauty device companies in one go.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1134210398","media":"投资界","summary":"美容仪，这个看似小小的赛道正诞生一笔笔融资。\n\n雷军又出手了，投的赛道你可能想不到。\n投资界获悉，美容护理品牌inFace刚刚宣布获数千万元人民币Pre-A轮融资，由小米集团、顺为资本领投。令人惊讶的","content":"<p>Beauty devices, a seemingly small industry, are seeing a series of funding rounds. Lei Jun has made another move, and you might not guess the track he's investing in.</p><p>According to learnings from the investment community, beauty and care brand inFace has just announced that it has secured tens of millions of RMB in Pre-A round financing, led by Xiaomi Group and Shunwei Capital. Surprisingly, this is the third beauty hardware company Xiaomi has invested in this year, following previous investments in Cosmel, which develops hair growth caps, and Oxyfen, which launches facial cleansing devices.</p><p>At this point,<b>Xiaomi's beauty device landscape</b>Gradually, it has taken shape, covering many categories such as facial cleansing, anti-aging, firming, acne treatment, skin purification, and hair removal. Lei Jun, who is good at making hardware, finally found his direction and started making money from girls.</p><p>Beauty devices, an insignificant sector, has become popular, attracting VC/PE investment: Just this month, beauty device brand Feimo received exclusive investment from IDG Capital, marking Feimao's third round of financing since its establishment. Emerging brands such as BIOLAB have also completed a new round of financing this year, led by Tiantu Investment... More and more domestic popular beauty device brands are emerging to seize this highly profitable market.</p><p>Beauty is an eternal endeavor, and hundreds of millions of beauty-loving women in China are creating wealth-creating myths. In the words of VCs, this is a trend that will never disappear; there will always be another hot topic emerging.</p><p><b>Lei Jun made another move.</b></p><p><b>A few days ago, I applied for a beauty device.</b></p><p>Lei Jun secretly invested in a beauty device company.</p><p>This stems from a financing announcement – on July 16, beauty and care brand inFace recently secured tens of millions of RMB in Pre-A round financing, led by Xiaomi Group and Shunwei Capital, with additional investment from its previous investor, Xinpao Capital, and strategic partners. It is understood that inFace is still actively preparing for its next round of financing.</p><p>What is the origin of inFace? Founded in 2017, inFace is part of Xiaomi's ecosystem company, Migu.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/5RE.SI\">smart</a>Its personal home care brand. Since its establishment, the company has provided a wide range of users with a series of home beauty instruments such as cleaning, nursing, and anti-aging, as well as overall home beauty and care solutions. Its main products include facial cleansers, blackhead devices, straightening hair combs, and micro-bubble skin rejuvenation devices.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/afef2cceb591e447fcd8e8958fa434e4\" tg-width=\"828\" tg-height=\"1200\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Behind this company engaged in the beauty industry is...<b>A male founder – Xiao Yin</b>。 After graduating from Harbin Normal University, Xiao Yin first worked at an education company in Beijing as usual. He then joined Hangzhou Hongxing Electronics Co., Ltd., a semiconductor company, as the sales director. During his tenure as a senior executive at Hongxing Electronics, he was mainly responsible for company strategy formulation, team building, and project management, and made a group of like-minded friends in the field of electronics manufacturing.</p><p>Whenever she had time, Xiao Yin would gather with her friends to discuss starting a business. Wireless charging, universal remote controls... were all included in their entrepreneurial plans, but they have never been able to finalize their direction. A business trip to the United States led Xiao Yin to her goal—a personal care and beauty device. At the time, he happened to see a brush facial cleanser that cost only a few hundred yuan, but he actually bought it for several thousand yuan. \"Although beauty products have a certain brand premium profit, it's not that exaggerated,\" Xiao Yin once shared his surprising discovery.</p><p>In 2017, Xiao Yin came to Shenzhen, where the supply chain is relatively concentrated, to start her own business. In its first year of operation, Migu Intelligent had no products, no revenue, and only 4 members; After nearly a year of research and development and refinement, Migu Smart's first personal care and beauty product, the inFace sonic ion facial cleanser, was launched on Xiaomi's crowdfunding platform in January 2018. In just two weeks, the product reached 13,000 supporters, raised 3.4145 million yuan, and achieved a success rate of over 600%, becoming a crowdfunding hit for Xiaomi.</p><p>Having achieved initial success, Xiao Yin began to consider which direction to take for her next product. To this end, he even went to a dermatologist to understand the causes of his skin problems. \"It wasn't until I actually entered this industry that I realized there are so many things to consider when it comes to skin.\" So, Xiao Yin continued to lead her team in researching product design and technology.</p><p>In the following two years, Migu Smart successively launched products such as the inFace sonic facial cleanser, inFace gold beauty bar, and inFace blackhead device. Among them, the inFace blackhead device achieved sales of over 10 million yuan within 14 days of its launch, gaining recognition from over 110,000 people and becoming a new generation of internet celebrity products.</p><p>In the four years since its establishment, Migu Intelligent's product line has included hair products such as straightening combs and hair removal devices, skin products such as facial cleansers, and anti-aging products such as radio frequency instruments and eye beauty devices. During this year's 618 shopping festival, inFace straight hair combs ranked first in the sales rankings of styling combs, ion combs, and electric combs.</p><p><b>You might not imagine, yet another track is booming.</b></p><p><b>VC/PE queue to enter</b></p><p>The beauty device industry, a seemingly small sector, is seeing a series of funding rounds, which you may not know.<b>inFace is the third beauty device company Lei Jun has invested in this year.</b></p><p>In January of this year, COSBEAUTY, a brand focusing on medical-grade home health consumer products, announced the completion of a Series B+ financing round of nearly 100 million yuan, led by Xiaomi, with Shunwei Capital and Xinzhiyuan following suit. Back in 2017, Shenzhen Capital Group led the company's Series B financing round of nearly RMB 100 million. Cosme is also a developer focusing on the research and development of women's beauty and health electronic products. It was founded in May 2013. Currently, the company's representative products include hair growth caps, ultrasonic ion beauty devices, hair removal devices, and skin detection devices.</p><p>Not long ago, Ningbo Qingmei Electric Appliance Technology Co., Ltd., founded in 2019, received strategic financing from Xiaomi Group. The specific investment amount has not yet been disclosed. According to its official website, the company's main brand is Oxyfen, which focuses on the water purification segment. Its main product is a skin-nourishing facial cleansing and softening device.</p><p>In fact, Xiaomi Group and Shunwei Capital began to expand into the beauty device field as early as 2017. In November 2017, AMIRO, an optoelectronic beauty brand, secured tens of millions of yuan in Pre-A round financing led by Xiaomi and Shunwei Capital. Previously, ZhenFund and Taihuoniao jointly participated in its angel round financing. In July 2015, Wang Nianou, a graduate of the School of Computer Science at Zhejiang University majoring in Industrial Design, founded the brand.</p><p>In the first few years, the team has been tackling core light source technologies and releasing several high-definition sunlight mirrors in the mid-to-high-end price range. In the following years, the team successively expanded into the red light wave hair removal device for the body shaping line and the \"Time Machine\" radio frequency beauty device for the beauty line.</p><p>At the end of last year, AMIRO officially announced a Series B financing round of 100 million yuan. This round of financing not only received continued support from existing shareholder Shunwei Capital, but also from investment institutions such as Dachen Capital, Honghui Capital, Celtic Asia, and Aoniu Capital.</p><p>In 2021, this track emerged in both VC and PE. In March, BIOLAB, a light medical aesthetics skincare brand, completed a Pre-A round of financing worth tens of millions of yuan, led by Tiantu Investment and followed by Baojiehui Innovation Consumption Fund. Previously, Tingyan had received angel round investment from Baojiehui Innovation Consumption Fund. Positioned as a light medical aesthetic skincare brand, BIOLAB's product line is mainly divided into light medical aesthetic technology skincare products targeting home use scenarios, such as home water and light oxygen injectors and freeze-dried essence serums, as well as daily functional products such as repair masks and cleansing gels.</p><p>In July, IDG Capital exclusively invested in beauty device brand Feimo. This<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/V03.SI\">Startup company</a>Behind him is Spark Cui, a designer born in the 1980s. In 2005, he entered Jiangnan University to study industrial design; Two years later, he was admitted to Eindhoven University of Technology in the Netherlands to pursue a bachelor's degree in industrial design. After returning to China, Spark Cui chose to enter<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PHG\">Philips</a>He pursued further studies at the research institute and was responsible for advanced research and development. During this period, the products he designed won numerous international industrial design awards, including Red Dot.</p><p>In 2017, Spark Cui partnered with...<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">Microsoft</a>Dr. Martijn ten Bhömer from the research institute jointly founded Feimo. Since its establishment in 2017, Feimo has launched a variety of beauty and skincare products, including facial cleansers, hydrating devices, hydrating serums, and skincare products. Its best-selling Xingpin Feimo home water and light beauty device became the top-selling single water and light device on Tmall in 2020.</p><p>From Lei Jun to domestic VC/PE firms, they are all investing in these small beauty devices.</p><p><b>Why are beauty devices so popular?</b></p><p><b>Generation Z is supporting a series of beautiful wealth-creating myths.</b></p><p>As Generation Z begins to \"fight against premature aging,\" a series of wealth myths are emerging.</p><p>The \"China Social Newcomer Consumption Report\" points out that consumers born in the 1990s and 2000s have begun to combine beauty devices, medical aesthetics, health products, and sports and fitness products in various ways to resist the anxiety and unease brought about by \"aging\".</p><p>Currently, China's beauty device market is growing rapidly. According to a beauty device report released by market research firm Mintel in November 2020, although consumer purchasing power was affected by the pandemic in the first quarter of 2020, the beauty device market achieved rapid growth again after returning to normal. Mintel predicts that the total sales of beauty instruments in China will increase by 21% year-on-year in 2020, reaching RMB 11.5 billion.</p><p>The \"2020 Online Home Beauty Device Consumer Insight Report\" jointly released by CBNData and Tmall Global shows data that further illustrates this point: among typical consumers of home beauty devices, 30% of Generation Z choose to purchase beauty devices, upgrade their equipment, and enjoy the pleasure of becoming beautiful even while lying down at home.</p><p>This year, the medical aesthetics sector has seen a continuous surge for three months, with the three leading companies in the upstream of the industry chain—<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300896\">Aimeike</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/688366\">Haohai Biotechnology</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/688363\">Huaxi Biotechnology</a></b>The increases reached 81%, 104%, and 72% respectively, and more and more listed companies in the secondary market are even starting to label themselves with the concept of medical aesthetics, benefiting from the soaring stock prices of medical aesthetics.</p><p>In the medical aesthetics industry, the exorbitant profits of hyaluronic acid are well-known, and recently, the claim that \"drinking it can make you beautiful\" has emerged.<b>edible hyaluronic acid</b>A trend is emerging. On January 7th of this year, the National Health Commission issued an announcement stating that sodium hyaluronate had been approved as a new food additive. Various players acted swiftly, and Bloomage Biotechnology quickly launched its first hyaluronic acid drinking water brand, \"Shui Ji Quan.\" Various food and health product companies also took action, such as Hankou No. 2 Factory launching \"Ha Shui\" hyaluronic acid sparkling water, and WonderLab, a meal replacement brand, launching its first oral hyaluronic acid gummy...</p><p>In addition to beauty devices, entering 2021,<b>Financing for skincare and cosmetics</b>They accelerated even faster. According to incomplete statistics, in the first half of this year alone, more than 45 financing deals were raised in the beauty and personal care category. VC/PE firms such as Sequoia China, Hillhouse Capital, IDG Capital, Coatue, Five Sources Capital, CPE Yuanfeng, Tiantu Investment, Source Code Capital, Hony Capital, Qingliu Capital, Innovation Works, and ZhenFund entered the market, and even...<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">Tencent</a>ByteDance, Bilibili, and others are all making heavy bets.</p><p>In January of this year, Ximuyuan completed a Series B financing round of tens of millions of yuan, with investors Coatue and Hony Capital. This is its sixth consecutive round of financing in more than a year, and the popularity is predictable. Ximuyuan was founded in 2019, and its previous investors included ZhenFund and Snow Lake Capital.</p><p>Men's skincare brand Liran also completed three rounds of financing this year. In January of this year, it completed funding from M31 Capital, Wuyuan Capital, and...<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SHI.UK\">say</a>The 150 million yuan Series B financing round with Hupu, followed by a 300 million yuan Series B+ round three months later, with new shareholders including Bilibili and Redpoint China. This month, Bilibili increased its investment again. And its frequency and ease have also driven the entire...<b>Investment trend in men's skincare</b>, such as Tabula Rasa, blue series, etc.</p><p>This is a product of the current booming appearance economy. With the successful IPO of Perfect Diary in 2020, many domestic personal care and beauty brands have risen one after another. In this huge market, everyone is carefully searching for the next Perfect Diary.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Lei Jun invested in three beauty device companies in one go.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nLei Jun invested in three beauty device companies in one go.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1096839439\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/2531123ee54a22588d693ba65ab705b3);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">投资界 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-07-18 18:16</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Beauty devices, a seemingly small industry, are seeing a series of funding rounds. Lei Jun has made another move, and you might not guess the track he's investing in.</p><p>According to learnings from the investment community, beauty and care brand inFace has just announced that it has secured tens of millions of RMB in Pre-A round financing, led by Xiaomi Group and Shunwei Capital. Surprisingly, this is the third beauty hardware company Xiaomi has invested in this year, following previous investments in Cosmel, which develops hair growth caps, and Oxyfen, which launches facial cleansing devices.</p><p>At this point,<b>Xiaomi's beauty device landscape</b>Gradually, it has taken shape, covering many categories such as facial cleansing, anti-aging, firming, acne treatment, skin purification, and hair removal. Lei Jun, who is good at making hardware, finally found his direction and started making money from girls.</p><p>Beauty devices, an insignificant sector, has become popular, attracting VC/PE investment: Just this month, beauty device brand Feimo received exclusive investment from IDG Capital, marking Feimao's third round of financing since its establishment. Emerging brands such as BIOLAB have also completed a new round of financing this year, led by Tiantu Investment... More and more domestic popular beauty device brands are emerging to seize this highly profitable market.</p><p>Beauty is an eternal endeavor, and hundreds of millions of beauty-loving women in China are creating wealth-creating myths. In the words of VCs, this is a trend that will never disappear; there will always be another hot topic emerging.</p><p><b>Lei Jun made another move.</b></p><p><b>A few days ago, I applied for a beauty device.</b></p><p>Lei Jun secretly invested in a beauty device company.</p><p>This stems from a financing announcement – on July 16, beauty and care brand inFace recently secured tens of millions of RMB in Pre-A round financing, led by Xiaomi Group and Shunwei Capital, with additional investment from its previous investor, Xinpao Capital, and strategic partners. It is understood that inFace is still actively preparing for its next round of financing.</p><p>What is the origin of inFace? Founded in 2017, inFace is part of Xiaomi's ecosystem company, Migu.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/5RE.SI\">smart</a>Its personal home care brand. Since its establishment, the company has provided a wide range of users with a series of home beauty instruments such as cleaning, nursing, and anti-aging, as well as overall home beauty and care solutions. Its main products include facial cleansers, blackhead devices, straightening hair combs, and micro-bubble skin rejuvenation devices.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/afef2cceb591e447fcd8e8958fa434e4\" tg-width=\"828\" tg-height=\"1200\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Behind this company engaged in the beauty industry is...<b>A male founder – Xiao Yin</b>。 After graduating from Harbin Normal University, Xiao Yin first worked at an education company in Beijing as usual. He then joined Hangzhou Hongxing Electronics Co., Ltd., a semiconductor company, as the sales director. During his tenure as a senior executive at Hongxing Electronics, he was mainly responsible for company strategy formulation, team building, and project management, and made a group of like-minded friends in the field of electronics manufacturing.</p><p>Whenever she had time, Xiao Yin would gather with her friends to discuss starting a business. Wireless charging, universal remote controls... were all included in their entrepreneurial plans, but they have never been able to finalize their direction. A business trip to the United States led Xiao Yin to her goal—a personal care and beauty device. At the time, he happened to see a brush facial cleanser that cost only a few hundred yuan, but he actually bought it for several thousand yuan. \"Although beauty products have a certain brand premium profit, it's not that exaggerated,\" Xiao Yin once shared his surprising discovery.</p><p>In 2017, Xiao Yin came to Shenzhen, where the supply chain is relatively concentrated, to start her own business. In its first year of operation, Migu Intelligent had no products, no revenue, and only 4 members; After nearly a year of research and development and refinement, Migu Smart's first personal care and beauty product, the inFace sonic ion facial cleanser, was launched on Xiaomi's crowdfunding platform in January 2018. In just two weeks, the product reached 13,000 supporters, raised 3.4145 million yuan, and achieved a success rate of over 600%, becoming a crowdfunding hit for Xiaomi.</p><p>Having achieved initial success, Xiao Yin began to consider which direction to take for her next product. To this end, he even went to a dermatologist to understand the causes of his skin problems. \"It wasn't until I actually entered this industry that I realized there are so many things to consider when it comes to skin.\" So, Xiao Yin continued to lead her team in researching product design and technology.</p><p>In the following two years, Migu Smart successively launched products such as the inFace sonic facial cleanser, inFace gold beauty bar, and inFace blackhead device. Among them, the inFace blackhead device achieved sales of over 10 million yuan within 14 days of its launch, gaining recognition from over 110,000 people and becoming a new generation of internet celebrity products.</p><p>In the four years since its establishment, Migu Intelligent's product line has included hair products such as straightening combs and hair removal devices, skin products such as facial cleansers, and anti-aging products such as radio frequency instruments and eye beauty devices. During this year's 618 shopping festival, inFace straight hair combs ranked first in the sales rankings of styling combs, ion combs, and electric combs.</p><p><b>You might not imagine, yet another track is booming.</b></p><p><b>VC/PE queue to enter</b></p><p>The beauty device industry, a seemingly small sector, is seeing a series of funding rounds, which you may not know.<b>inFace is the third beauty device company Lei Jun has invested in this year.</b></p><p>In January of this year, COSBEAUTY, a brand focusing on medical-grade home health consumer products, announced the completion of a Series B+ financing round of nearly 100 million yuan, led by Xiaomi, with Shunwei Capital and Xinzhiyuan following suit. Back in 2017, Shenzhen Capital Group led the company's Series B financing round of nearly RMB 100 million. Cosme is also a developer focusing on the research and development of women's beauty and health electronic products. It was founded in May 2013. Currently, the company's representative products include hair growth caps, ultrasonic ion beauty devices, hair removal devices, and skin detection devices.</p><p>Not long ago, Ningbo Qingmei Electric Appliance Technology Co., Ltd., founded in 2019, received strategic financing from Xiaomi Group. The specific investment amount has not yet been disclosed. According to its official website, the company's main brand is Oxyfen, which focuses on the water purification segment. Its main product is a skin-nourishing facial cleansing and softening device.</p><p>In fact, Xiaomi Group and Shunwei Capital began to expand into the beauty device field as early as 2017. In November 2017, AMIRO, an optoelectronic beauty brand, secured tens of millions of yuan in Pre-A round financing led by Xiaomi and Shunwei Capital. Previously, ZhenFund and Taihuoniao jointly participated in its angel round financing. In July 2015, Wang Nianou, a graduate of the School of Computer Science at Zhejiang University majoring in Industrial Design, founded the brand.</p><p>In the first few years, the team has been tackling core light source technologies and releasing several high-definition sunlight mirrors in the mid-to-high-end price range. In the following years, the team successively expanded into the red light wave hair removal device for the body shaping line and the \"Time Machine\" radio frequency beauty device for the beauty line.</p><p>At the end of last year, AMIRO officially announced a Series B financing round of 100 million yuan. This round of financing not only received continued support from existing shareholder Shunwei Capital, but also from investment institutions such as Dachen Capital, Honghui Capital, Celtic Asia, and Aoniu Capital.</p><p>In 2021, this track emerged in both VC and PE. In March, BIOLAB, a light medical aesthetics skincare brand, completed a Pre-A round of financing worth tens of millions of yuan, led by Tiantu Investment and followed by Baojiehui Innovation Consumption Fund. Previously, Tingyan had received angel round investment from Baojiehui Innovation Consumption Fund. Positioned as a light medical aesthetic skincare brand, BIOLAB's product line is mainly divided into light medical aesthetic technology skincare products targeting home use scenarios, such as home water and light oxygen injectors and freeze-dried essence serums, as well as daily functional products such as repair masks and cleansing gels.</p><p>In July, IDG Capital exclusively invested in beauty device brand Feimo. This<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/V03.SI\">Startup company</a>Behind him is Spark Cui, a designer born in the 1980s. In 2005, he entered Jiangnan University to study industrial design; Two years later, he was admitted to Eindhoven University of Technology in the Netherlands to pursue a bachelor's degree in industrial design. After returning to China, Spark Cui chose to enter<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PHG\">Philips</a>He pursued further studies at the research institute and was responsible for advanced research and development. During this period, the products he designed won numerous international industrial design awards, including Red Dot.</p><p>In 2017, Spark Cui partnered with...<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">Microsoft</a>Dr. Martijn ten Bhömer from the research institute jointly founded Feimo. Since its establishment in 2017, Feimo has launched a variety of beauty and skincare products, including facial cleansers, hydrating devices, hydrating serums, and skincare products. Its best-selling Xingpin Feimo home water and light beauty device became the top-selling single water and light device on Tmall in 2020.</p><p>From Lei Jun to domestic VC/PE firms, they are all investing in these small beauty devices.</p><p><b>Why are beauty devices so popular?</b></p><p><b>Generation Z is supporting a series of beautiful wealth-creating myths.</b></p><p>As Generation Z begins to \"fight against premature aging,\" a series of wealth myths are emerging.</p><p>The \"China Social Newcomer Consumption Report\" points out that consumers born in the 1990s and 2000s have begun to combine beauty devices, medical aesthetics, health products, and sports and fitness products in various ways to resist the anxiety and unease brought about by \"aging\".</p><p>Currently, China's beauty device market is growing rapidly. According to a beauty device report released by market research firm Mintel in November 2020, although consumer purchasing power was affected by the pandemic in the first quarter of 2020, the beauty device market achieved rapid growth again after returning to normal. Mintel predicts that the total sales of beauty instruments in China will increase by 21% year-on-year in 2020, reaching RMB 11.5 billion.</p><p>The \"2020 Online Home Beauty Device Consumer Insight Report\" jointly released by CBNData and Tmall Global shows data that further illustrates this point: among typical consumers of home beauty devices, 30% of Generation Z choose to purchase beauty devices, upgrade their equipment, and enjoy the pleasure of becoming beautiful even while lying down at home.</p><p>This year, the medical aesthetics sector has seen a continuous surge for three months, with the three leading companies in the upstream of the industry chain—<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300896\">Aimeike</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/688366\">Haohai Biotechnology</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/688363\">Huaxi Biotechnology</a></b>The increases reached 81%, 104%, and 72% respectively, and more and more listed companies in the secondary market are even starting to label themselves with the concept of medical aesthetics, benefiting from the soaring stock prices of medical aesthetics.</p><p>In the medical aesthetics industry, the exorbitant profits of hyaluronic acid are well-known, and recently, the claim that \"drinking it can make you beautiful\" has emerged.<b>edible hyaluronic acid</b>A trend is emerging. On January 7th of this year, the National Health Commission issued an announcement stating that sodium hyaluronate had been approved as a new food additive. Various players acted swiftly, and Bloomage Biotechnology quickly launched its first hyaluronic acid drinking water brand, \"Shui Ji Quan.\" Various food and health product companies also took action, such as Hankou No. 2 Factory launching \"Ha Shui\" hyaluronic acid sparkling water, and WonderLab, a meal replacement brand, launching its first oral hyaluronic acid gummy...</p><p>In addition to beauty devices, entering 2021,<b>Financing for skincare and cosmetics</b>They accelerated even faster. According to incomplete statistics, in the first half of this year alone, more than 45 financing deals were raised in the beauty and personal care category. VC/PE firms such as Sequoia China, Hillhouse Capital, IDG Capital, Coatue, Five Sources Capital, CPE Yuanfeng, Tiantu Investment, Source Code Capital, Hony Capital, Qingliu Capital, Innovation Works, and ZhenFund entered the market, and even...<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">Tencent</a>ByteDance, Bilibili, and others are all making heavy bets.</p><p>In January of this year, Ximuyuan completed a Series B financing round of tens of millions of yuan, with investors Coatue and Hony Capital. This is its sixth consecutive round of financing in more than a year, and the popularity is predictable. Ximuyuan was founded in 2019, and its previous investors included ZhenFund and Snow Lake Capital.</p><p>Men's skincare brand Liran also completed three rounds of financing this year. In January of this year, it completed funding from M31 Capital, Wuyuan Capital, and...<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SHI.UK\">say</a>The 150 million yuan Series B financing round with Hupu, followed by a 300 million yuan Series B+ round three months later, with new shareholders including Bilibili and Redpoint China. This month, Bilibili increased its investment again. And its frequency and ease have also driven the entire...<b>Investment trend in men's skincare</b>, such as Tabula Rasa, blue series, etc.</p><p>This is a product of the current booming appearance economy. With the successful IPO of Perfect Diary in 2020, many domestic personal care and beauty brands have risen one after another. In this huge market, everyone is carefully searching for the next Perfect Diary.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3e8a0e70f95b899383eec04529a52345","relate_stocks":{"KC":"金山云","01810":"小米集团-W"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1134210398","content_text":"美容仪，这个看似小小的赛道正诞生一笔笔融资。\n\n雷军又出手了，投的赛道你可能想不到。\n投资界获悉，美容护理品牌inFace刚刚宣布获数千万元人民币Pre-A轮融资，由小米集团、顺为资本领投。令人惊讶的是，这是小米今年投的第三家美容硬件公司，此前还投了研发生发帽的可思美和推出洗脸仪的氧芬。\n至此，小米的美容仪器版图逐渐形成，涵盖了洁面、抗衰、紧致、祛痘、净肤、脱毛等众多品类。擅长做硬件的雷军，终于找到方向赚起了女生的钱。\n美容仪，这个不起眼的赛道火了，VC/PE涌入：就在这个月，美容仪品牌飞莫拿到了IDG资本独家投资，这是飞莫成立以来的第3轮融资；新锐品牌BIOLAB听研等也在今年完成了由天图投资领投的新一轮融资.....越来越多国产网红美容仪品牌正在诞生，抢占这个暴利的市场。\n美丽是一项永恒的事业，中国数以亿计爱美女性正缔造一个个造富神话。用VC的话来说，这是一个永不消失的风口，永远有下一个热点诞生。\n雷军又出手\n几天前，投了一个美容仪\n雷军，悄悄投了一家美容仪公司。\n这源于一则融资消息——7月16日，美容护理品牌inFace近期获数千万元人民币Pre-A轮融资，由小米集团、顺为资本领投，上一轮投资方芯跑资本以及战略伙伴追加投资。据悉，inFace仍在积极筹备下一轮融资。\ninFace有何来头？创立于2017年，inFace，是小米生态链公司米谷智能旗下个人家用美护品牌。成立以来，公司为广大用户提供清洁、护理、抗初老等系列家用美容仪器及家庭美容护理整体解决方案，主打产品有洁面仪、黑头仪、直卷发梳和小气泡焕肤仪等。\n\n这家从事美丽事业的公司背后，却是一位男性创始人——肖音。从哈尔滨师范大学毕业后，肖音先是按部就班地在北京一家教育公司工作。而后，他进入半导体企业杭州鸿星电子有限公司，担任销售总监一职。在鸿星电子担任高管期间，他主要负责公司战略制定、团队组建和项目管理等方面工作，并在电子制造领域结识一群志趣相投的朋友。\n只要有时间，肖音便和朋友们聚在一起研究创业的事情。无线充电、万能遥控器……都曾列入过他们的创业计划表，但一直没能敲定最终方向。一次在美国的出差经历，让肖音找到了目标——个护美容仪。当时，他偶然看到一块成本只有几百元的毛刷洁面仪，竟然买到了几千元。“虽说美护产品有一定的品牌溢价利润，但也不至于这么夸张。”肖音曾分享了他的惊讶发现。\n2017年，肖音来到供应链相对集中的深圳开始创业。创业第一年，米谷智能没有产品，没有营收，仅有4名成员；经过接近一年的研发和打磨，2018年1月米谷智能首款个护美容产品——inFace声波离子洁面仪上架小米众筹。仅用两周时间，该款产品的支持人数高达1.3万人，众筹金额341.45万元，达成率超过600%，成为小米众筹爆款。\n初战告捷，肖音开始考虑下一款产品朝着哪个方向走。为此，他还特意去皮肤科专家，了解皮肤问题的缘由。“我真正进入到这个行业后，才知道皮肤有这么多讲究。”于是，肖音继续带着团队埋头研究产品的设计和技术。\n随后两年时间，米谷智能相继推出了inFace声波洁面仪、inFace黄金美容棒、inFace黑头仪等产品。其中，inFace黑头仪上线14天销售额破千万，获得了超11万人的认可，成为新一代网红产品。\n成立4年时间里，米谷智能的产品线包括直发梳、脱毛仪等毛发类产品、洁面仪等皮肤类产品以及射频仪、美眼仪等抗初老产品。在今年618活动中，inFace直发梳在造型梳/离子梳/电动梳品类交易榜中排名第一。\n你可能想象不到，又一条赛道火爆\nVC/PE排队入场\n美容仪，这个看似小小的赛道正诞生一笔笔融资，你可能不知道，inFace是雷军本年内投的第三家美容仪公司。\n今年1月，专注于医疗级家用健康消费品品牌COSBEAUTY可思美宣布完成B+轮近亿元融资，由小米领投，顺为资本、信之源跟投。早在2017年，深创投曾领投该公司B轮近亿元人民币融资。可思美也是一家专注研发女性美容健康类电子产品的开发商，成立于2013年5月。目前，公司代表产品有生发帽、超声波离子美容仪、脱毛仪、肌肤检测仪等。\n不久前，成立于2019年的宁波轻美电器科技有限公司获小米集团战略融资，具体投资额尚未披露。官网显示，该公司旗下主要品牌是专注净水细分领域的氧芬，其产品主要是一款养肤洗脸柔水仪。\n事实上，早在2017年小米集团和顺为资本便开始布局美容仪领域。2017年11月，光电美容品牌——AMIRO获得了由小米、顺为资本领投的千万级Pre-A轮融资，此前真格基金和太火鸟联合参与其天使轮融资。2015年7月，毕业于浙江大学计算机学院工业设计专业的王念欧创立了该品牌。\n刚刚开始的几年时间里，团队一直在攻克核心光源技术，发布了几款中高价档的高清日光镜产品。随后几年，该团队先后拓展了美体线的红光波脱毛仪和美容线的“时光机”射频美容仪。\n去年年底，AMIRO官宣了亿元级的B轮融资。这一次融资，不仅有老股东顺为资本继续跟随，还有达晨财智、弘晖资本、凯尔特亚洲、奥牛资本等投资机构的加持。\n2021年，VC/PE都涌现了这条赛道。3月，轻医美护肤品牌BIOLAB听研完成千万级Pre-A轮融资，由天图投资领投，宝捷会创新消费基金跟投。此前，听研曾获得来自宝捷会创新消费基金的天使轮投资。定位轻医美护肤品牌，BIOLAB听研产品线主要分为瞄准家用场景的轻医美科技护肤产品如家用水光注氧仪、冻干精华原液等，以及日常功效型产品如修护面膜、清洁啫喱等。\n7月，IDG资本独家投资了美容仪品牌飞莫。这家创业公司背后是一位80后设计师Spark Cui。2005年，他进入江南大学学习工业设计专业；两年后，又考入荷兰艾恩霍芬理工大学，研修工业设计专业本科。回国后，Spark Cui选择进入飞利浦研究院深造，负责超前研发。在此期间，他设计出的产品屡获红点等国际工业设计奖项。\n2017年，Spark Cui携手前微软研究院Martijn ten Bhömer博士，联手创立飞莫。自从2017年成立以来，飞莫先后推出洁面仪、水光仪、水光精华液、护肤等多款美容护肤产品。其热卖星品飞莫家用水光美容仪，成为2020年天猫水光仪单品销量Top1。\n从雷军到国内VC/PE，他们都在投这一个个小小的美容仪器。\n美容仪为什么火？\nZ世代撑起一个个美丽造富神话\n当Z世代开始“抗初老”，一个个财富神话诞生。\n《中国社会新人消费报告》指出，90后和00后消费者开始将美容仪、医美、保健品、运动健身等进行花式组合，以抵挡“衰老”带来的焦虑与不安。\n眼下，中国美容仪市场正在快速增长。根据市场研究公司英敏特在2020年11月发布的美容仪器报告，尽管2020年第一季度消费者购买力受到疫情影响，但恢复常态后，美容仪器市场再次实现快速增长。英敏特预计，2020年中国美容仪器市场总销售额同比去年增长21%，实现115亿元人民币。\nCBNData与天猫国际联合发布的《2020线上家用美容仪消费洞察报告》显示了一个进一步说明这一点的数据：在家用美容仪的典型消费群体中，30%的Z世代选择购入美容仪，对装备进行升级，在家享受躺着也变美的乐趣。\n今年，医美板块的持续暴涨已经持续了3个月，处在产业链上游的三大龙头——爱美客、昊海生科、华熙生物，涨幅更是分别达到了81%、104%、72%，甚至二级市场越来越多的上市公司开始贴医美的概念标签，一沾医美、股价飞涨之势。\n在医美行业，玻尿酸的暴利人尽皆知，而最近，“喝了就能变美”的食用玻尿酸风潮兴起。今年1月7日，国家卫生健康委发布公告称，透明质酸钠作为新的食品添加剂成分的审查通过，各方玩家闻风而动，华熙生物很快推出了首款玻尿酸饮用水品牌“水肌泉”，各类食品公司、保健品公司也行动起来，如汉口二厂推出了玻尿酸气泡水“哈水”、 养代餐食品品牌WonderLab上市首款口服玻尿酸软糖……\n除了美容仪，进入2021年，护肤、彩妆类的融资更是快马加鞭。据不完全统计，仅今年上半年，美妆个护品类的融资超过45起，红杉中国、高瓴创投、IDG资本、Coatue、五源资本、CPE源峰、天图投资、源码资本、弘毅创投、清流资本、创新工场、真格基金等VC/PE纷纷入局，甚至腾讯、字节跳动、B站等都在重押。\n今年1月，溪木源完成数千万元的B轮融资，投资方Coatue、弘毅创投，这是其在一年多的时间内连续获得的第6轮融资，火爆程度可以想见。溪木源成立于2019年，此前的投资方还包括真格基金、雪湖资本等。\n男士护肤品牌理然也在今年完成了3轮融资，今年1月，完成M31资本、五源资本、SIG和虎扑的1.5亿元B轮融资，3个月后的B+轮金额3亿，新股东包括B站和红点中国，就在这个月，B站再度加码。而它的频频容易，也带动了整个男士护肤的投资潮，如Tabula Rasa、蓝系等。\n这是当下轰轰烈烈的颜值经济的产物。随着2020年完美日记成功IPO，个护美妆的国货之光一个个崛起，在这个庞大的市场，所有人都带上了瞄准镜，正细心寻找下一个完美日记。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"KC":0.9,"01810":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2090,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":121161586,"gmtCreate":1624456875045,"gmtModify":1703837288950,"author":{"id":"3586167248367118","authorId":"3586167248367118","name":"TanTH","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f9317bf33bd64e46c21c589d7bac5157","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586167248367118","idStr":"3586167248367118"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/121161586","repostId":"1192976283","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2371,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":162310051,"gmtCreate":1624034064673,"gmtModify":1703827339708,"author":{"id":"3586167248367118","authorId":"3586167248367118","name":"TanTH","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f9317bf33bd64e46c21c589d7bac5157","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586167248367118","idStr":"3586167248367118"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"??","listText":"??","text":"??","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/162310051","repostId":"1140655086","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1140655086","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1624032685,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1140655086?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-19 00:11","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"AiRecycle listed on the NYSE, opening 31.21% higher on its first day of trading.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1140655086","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"6月18日，互联网二手电子产品销售平台爱回收在纽约证交所首日挂牌高开31.21%，报18.37美元，总市值46.78亿美元。\n\n今晚，80后复旦学子率队站上了IPO敲钟舞台。\n中国最大的二手消费电子产","content":"<p>On June 18, an online second-hand electronics sales platform<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RERE\">Love recycling</a>It opened 31.21% higher at $18.37 on its first day of trading on the New York Stock Exchange, with a total market capitalization of $4.678 billion.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8076b9e3d9cb89fc46a4b6aa923eaaea\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"2222\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Tonight, Fudan University students born in the 1980s led their team to the IPO bell ringing stage.</p><p>Wanwu Xinsheng (Aihuishou) Group, China's largest second-hand consumer electronics trading and service platform, successfully listed on the New York Stock Exchange, becoming the first Chinese company listed on the US Stock Exchange for ESG. The IPO price was $14, corresponding to a market capitalization of $3.565 billion (approximately RMB 23 billion).</p><p>Behind the rebirth of all things lies the entrepreneurial story of two Fudan University alumni. In 2011, Chen Xuefeng, who was already 31 years old, joined hands with his senior brother Sun Wenjun to enter an overlooked business - second-hand mobile phone recycling. Along the way, Wanwu Xinsheng has gone through a difficult period, and Chen Xuefeng was once rejected by investors. Now, the 41-year-old founder has finally achieved his first IPO.</p><p>The rise of all things is also inseparable from an investment team behind it. Prior to its IPO, Wanwu Xinsheng completed a financing round of over 7 billion yuan, bringing together companies such as Wuyuan Capital, Tiantu Investment, Jinglin Investment, Dachen Caizhi, Cathay Fund, Qianhai Fund of Funds, Tiger Global Fund, and Qicheng Capital.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601211\">Guotai Junan Securities</a>Fresh Capital<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">JD.com</a>More than ten VC/PE firms and giant companies, including Kuaishou, were present.</p><p>Looking back on our ten-year journey, Chen Xuefeng wrote in an open letter that we started from a seemingly simple mobile phone recycling business. \"Fortunately, we inadvertently entered such an industry that is easily underestimated. For a long time, we were misunderstood as a company that dismantled mobile phones and refined metals.\" He lamented that being \"underestimated\" in entrepreneurship may not be a bad thing, and many successes often stem from being \"underestimated.\"</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6e069bd4e7e98cc4e8ef67ef245de551\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"723\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Fudan University students \"collect trash\"</b></p><p><b>Starting from recycling old mobile phones, it achieved a market value of 23 billion yuan.</b></p><p>Behind the love of recycling lies the story of a Fudan University programmer who rose to become a CEO.</p><p>Chen Xuefeng, CEO of AiRecycle, was born in 1980.<b>Huangshi, Hubei</b>He excelled academically since elementary school. He received his undergraduate degree in Computer Science from Tongji University and later obtained his master's degree from the Department of Computer Science at Fudan University. In 2006, Chen Xuefeng joined a company in Shanghai as a technical manager, an experience that lasted for four years.</p><p>The original founding of Love Recycling<b>The inspiration came from the concept of swapping items a few years ago.</b>。 In 2008, Chen Xuefeng, who was still working as a programmer, saw a news report about \"exchanging a pin for a villa\". The news tells the story of an American man who, through barter, exchanged a paperclip for the right to use a two-story villa for a year in just over a year.</p><p>At that time, Chen Xuefeng, with his keen sense of smell, began to realize that with the development of China's economy, how to deal with excess household items had become a problem. Therefore,<b>That's how the idea of starting a business in the \"second-hand\" sector sprouted in Chen Xuefeng's mind. That year, he collaborated with Fudan University alumnus Sun Wenjun to build Leyi.com, a C2C platform for barter.</b>At the time, the project also received 100,000 yuan in startup funding from Fudan University.</p><p>After working part-time for two years, Chen Xuefeng began to devote himself full-time to website operation in 2010. At that time, the company's main employees were some part-time students from Fudan University, and most of them stayed with the team after graduation. However,<b>When the Leyi.com team expanded to more than 10 people, the project couldn't continue.</b>。</p><p>Chen Xuefeng review reflected: \"This project was unsuccessful.\"<b>There are three main reasons.</b>First, I have a technical background. When I was building the platform, I hoped to achieve matching through technical means, but it later proved to be very difficult. Secondly, due to our lack of market and user thinking, the project has strayed from the foundation; Thirdly, the platform's transaction volume is insufficient. We overlooked the fact that the 'pin-for-villa' case was accidental and took more than a year to complete intermittently. For the platform, the fragmented transaction demand cannot support valid orders.</p><p>The project's failure once brought the team to the brink of disbandment, but it also forced the team to calm down and think again. review behind closed doors, Chen Xuefeng believes that there are still opportunities in the second-hand industry.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>After the release of the iPhone 4, the booming sales of smartphones triggered a wave of upgrades among users of older mobile phones. This made Chen Xuefeng secretly guess, \"<b>Will mobile phone recycling become a growing demand?</b>？”</p><p>Therefore, the team set their sights on electronic product recycling. In 2011, AiRecycling was officially established in Shanghai. Initially, AiRecycle only operated an online platform, but because electronic products needed to undergo professional testing, the purely online method could easily lead to user disputes regarding product quality and price. The ensuing negative reviews, such as \"malicious price gouging\" and \"opaque procedures,\" almost crushed this young brand.</p><p>Faced with the crisis, Chen Xuefeng made an exceptionally difficult decision—<b>Open a physical store</b>, build<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300959\">Online and offline</a>A combined cargo control system. In December 2013, Aihuishou opened its first store in Shanghai Yaxin Plaza. Chen Xuefeng never expected that taking the step of setting up offline stores would almost get him into trouble again. “It’s hard and tiring for an internet company to open a store, and it’s considered stupid. Basically no one approves of it.”</p><p>It is the layout of offline stores that has enabled Aihuishou to extend into new businesses and ultimately possess the core competitiveness to dominate the market. Taking the one-stop trade-in service created by JD.com in partnership with Aihuishou as an example, the service continues to be popular with consumers, with a year-on-year growth of more than 311% in 2020. Thereafter,<b>The revenue share of Aihuishou's stores has been increasing, eventually reaching half of the total revenue.</b>From online to offline, AiRecycle has built a three-dimensional recycling scenario that combines point, network, and surface.</p><p>Today, Wanwu Xinsheng has built a vast empire, boasting four major business segments: the 3C product C2B recycling platform \"Aihuishou\", the B2B trading platform \"Paijitang\", the B2C retail platform \"Paipai\", and the overseas \"AHS DEVICE\". It has captured a large portion of the second-hand 3C market. As of the end of March 2021, in the past 12 months, Wanwu Xinsheng Group had transacted more than 26.1 million second-hand goods across all platforms, with a total GMV of 22.8 billion yuan during the same period, ranking first in the Chinese market.</p><p>With this IPO, the true situation of this second-hand unicorn has come to light: the prospectus shows that from 2018 to 2020, the company's revenue was RMB 3.262 billion, RMB 3.932 billion and RMB 4.858 billion, respectively. And,<b>The company's overall gross profit margin in 2020 was 25.7%, a figure higher than that of some mobile phone manufacturers.</b>However, according to the prospectus, Wanwu Xinsheng has accumulated losses of nearly 1.4 billion yuan in the past three years.<b>Profitability remains one of the challenges facing this industry.</b>。</p><p>After ten years of entrepreneurship, Chen Xuefeng finally led Wanwu Xinsheng to open the doors of the New York Stock Exchange, becoming the first Chinese concept ESG stock. On the first day of listing,<b>The issue price of Wanwu Xinsheng is $14, with a market value of 23 billion yuan.</b>。</p><p><b>First investment of $2 million</b></p><p><b>At one point, no one recognized it, and the TS was torn up twice.</b></p><p>Along the way, behind the rebirth of all things, a group has quietly gathered.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DLX\">luxury</a>Investor team.</p><p>Before the IPO,<b>Wanwu Xinsheng has completed at least eight rounds of financing totaling over 7 billion yuan.</b>Behind him appeared...<b>Wuyuan Capital, Tiantu Investment, Jinglin Investment, Dachen Caizhi, Cathay Fund, Qianhai Fund of Funds, Tiger Global Fund, Qicheng Capital<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02611\">Guotai Junan Securities</a>Qingxin Capital, JD.com, Kuaishou</b>More than ten VC/PE institutions and giant companies were present.</p><p>Among them, Wanwu Xinsheng's first investment came from...<b>Five Sources Capital</b>。 After Leyi.com's entrepreneurial journey came to an end, Chen Xuefeng had the idea of recycling second-hand mobile phones. One day in 2011, he came to Five Sources Capital's Shanghai office. \"He took the initiative to contact our colleagues. We met in Five Sources' office and listened to Chen Xuefeng's introduction. He showed us a low-end business that we almost never see in our normal lives,\" recalled Shi Jianming, founding partner of Five Sources Capital.</p><p>At that time, the entrepreneurial trend on social media almost dominated the attention of all investors, and no one paid attention to the inconspicuous industry of second-hand e-commerce. But Chen Xuefeng's idea hit Shi Jianming's pain point.<b>I'm a die-hard electronics enthusiast myself, and at the time I was also worried about what to do with a drawer full of used mobile phones.</b>。”</p><p>Upon their first meeting, this young man born in the 1980s piqued Five Sources Capital's interest in this unassuming market. Shi Jianming began to realize that second-hand mobile phones are a huge social problem and also a huge market. \"You could say that Chen Xuefeng helped us open the door to second-hand mobile phone recycling.\"</p><p>Looking back, what impressed Shi Jianming most was the secondhand market in Shanghai's never-sleeping city described by Chen Xuefeng. The Wuyuan Capital team later went to this market specifically to conduct research, and they discovered...<b>From the sales staff on the first floor of the market to the second-hand mobile phone wholesalers on the fourth floor, interviews revealed serious market ineffectiveness.</b>。” Shi Jianming told the investment community that if someone can solve this social problem, it will definitely be of great value.</p><p>However, at the time, the business model that Aihuishou hoped to establish had no comparable companies abroad, and the recycling of second-hand mobile phones was relatively infrequent, so it was not easy to do so. Even so, Shi Jianming and Wuyuan Capital were still impressed by the high-achieving student in front of them, who had graduated from Tongji University with a bachelor's degree and Fudan University with a master's degree. This is because Chen Xuefeng is willing to invest a lot of time and energy in something that seems unreliable in the short term, and it is also based on the trust built between the two parties and the shared vision.</p><p>In October 2011, although AiRecycling was still just an idea, Five Sources Capital still invested in Chen Xuefeng's team.<b>$2 million</b>This is also the first investment made by Wanwu New Life since its inception. Over the years that followed, Five Sources Capital has been by Chen Xuefeng's side, providing him with considerable encouragement and support.</p><p>In 2013, Wanwu Xinsheng, which had just taken its first step in opening offline stores, faced its darkest moment. Chen Xuefeng once recalled: \"At that time, the traffic model of Internet companies was in full swing. It was dirty, tiring and stupid for an Internet company to open a store. Basically no one recognized it.\" Even the TS (Letter of Intent for Investment) that had been signed with the investor was torn up twice.</p><p><b>With nowhere else to turn, Five Sources Capital once again provided Chen Xuefeng's team with a $1 million bridge loan.</b>\"$1 million may not seem like a big number today, but it was a very important support at the time,\" Chen Xuefeng said with emotion.</p><p>After ten years of companionship, Wuyuan Capital has been arguably the most steadfast companion, betting on five rounds of financing for Wanwu Xinsheng, holding 14.0% of the shares and becoming its largest VC investor.</p><p><b>There are also a number of well-known VCs/PEs behind it.</b></p><p><b>Why are they interested in the second-hand market?</b></p><p>Having weathered the darkest hour, the financing of Wanwu Xinsheng is gradually opening up a new situation.</p><p>Around 2014,<b>Tiantu Investment began conducting extensive research and investigation into the \"secondhand business\" model, and in the process, they scanned the digital vertical category.</b>Wanwu Xinsheng (then called \"Love Recycling\") thus entered the field of vision of Tiantu Investment.</p><p>“At that time, AiRecycle was at a turning point in its business. We were just starting to develop offline chain stores. At that time, many institutions in the market were not optimistic about chain stores, and we were in the era of smartphone growth. People still had some misunderstandings about AiRecycle’s second-hand electronic product recycling model, thinking that it was ‘collecting waste.’ However, we had experience in investing in chain stores, and the two sides hit it off immediately,” Wei Guoxing recalled to the investment community. According to Li Kanglin, a partner at Tiantu Investment, Chen Xuefeng is an S-level entrepreneur whom they greatly admire and recognize, which aligns with Tiantu Investment's vision of being the most outstanding entrepreneur.</p><p>Starting in 2015, Tiantu Investment led two consecutive rounds of financing for Wanwu Xinsheng, and acquired a larger proportion of its investment in subsequent financings. This left Chen Xuefeng deeply moved: \"Shortly after Tiantu invested, I made a special trip to Shenzhen to consult with Tiantu CEO Mr. Feng (Feng Weidong). One year, during the annual meeting, I even specially invited Mr. Feng to Aihuishou to talk about the brand strategy for all employees. This was of great help to us.\"</p><p>For example, Jintiantu Investment holds 8.5% of Wanwu Xinsheng, which is its<b>Second largest financial investor</b>。 Years of successful bets have brought Tiantu Investment dozens of times the return.</p><p>Arrived<b>In 2016, Wanwu Xinsheng completed 400 million yuan Series D financing</b>The company boasts an impressive lineup of investors, with Dachen Capital being one of the lead investors. \"Investing in Zhonghai Recycling at this time is not only due to the favorable timing and location, but also to the Dachen team's in-depth observation and accurate judgment of this track.\"<b>Dachen Finance</b>Yang Tinghui, a partner in the consumer and enterprise services industry, told the investment community that China's 3C consumer recycling market will experience rapid growth at that time, and the industrial internet is also entering its first half, making it the best time to invest before the industry reaches a turning point.</p><p>Over the years, Dachen Finance has been deeply involved in the second-hand economy. In addition to Wanwu Xinsheng, it has also successively invested in companies such as Little Bear U Rental and Fat Tiger Technology. Xiao Bing, Managing Partner and President of Dachen Finance, firmly believes that:<b>As the mobile internet enters its second phase, the traffic dividend has ended, and supply chain capabilities will become the core differentiating capability for each company.</b>Therefore, in addition to continuing to conduct top-down industry research and due diligence, we must remain patient and hold our bullets until the company that meets Dachen's investment aesthetics appears and hits the mark.</p><p>Also making a move in this round<b>Cathay Fund</b>Later, the bets were increased in 2018. Duan Lanchun, Managing Partner of Cathay Capital, said: \"Wanwu Xinsheng not only provides a better and more convenient experience for thousands of users, but also makes long-term efforts for the low-carbon economy and the sustainable development of China's economy. We believe that the huge potential inherent in China's second-hand electronics trading and service market will further deepen the 'flywheel effect' under the integrated enterprise platform, and will continue to support socially responsible companies like Wanwu Xinsheng.\"</p><p>Qicheng Capital is also another important investor in Wanwu Xinsheng. Actually, back in 2013, it was still on JD.com.<b>Inheritance Capital</b>Partners Chang Bin and Chen Xuefeng already knew each other, and he facilitated a win-win strategic cooperation between JD.com and Wanwu Xinsheng. In 2019, based on its continued optimism about the prospects of the second-hand 3C trading market and the company's in-depth layout, Qicheng Capital made additional investments in the rapidly developing Wanwu Xinsheng, which yielded substantial returns.</p><p><b>Qingxin Capital</b>Also in June 2019 and September of the following year,<b>Participated in the Series E and Series E+ financing of Wanwu Xinsheng</b>Through diversified cooperation at the capital and business levels, it has accompanied and witnessed the growth of this unicorn, and now it is entering its harvest period.</p><p><b>JD.com and Kuaishou have also entered an undervalued industry.</b></p><p><b>The 41-year-old founder's net worth is 2.5 billion.</b></p><p>Of course, looking back at the financing process of Wanwu Xinsheng, JD.com is an indispensable player.</p><p>Firstly, in terms of business, in June 2019, Wanwu Xinsheng merged with Paipai, a subsidiary of JD.com, to make up for the shortcomings in its B2C business and ultimately form a complete closed loop of C2B+B2B+B2C. This is a powerful chemical reaction, and also a \"turnaround against the trend\" for all things to be reborn.</p><p>Prior to this, Paipai and Aihuishou had had in-depth business cooperation for many years, and \"they have been family for a long time.\" Liao Jianwen, Chief Strategy Officer of JD.com, once discussed the logic behind this merger: \"JD.com has always been optimistic about the social innovation significance of the circular economy. Over the past few years, AiRecycle and Paipai have established a solid foundation for cooperation.\"<b>A benchmark for collaborative and win-win cooperation within the JD.com ecosystem</b>。 Through this strategic merger, both parties will further improve the standardization and circulation efficiency of second-hand products, and promote the transparency and automation of the recycling and disposal supply chain. At the same time,<b>Leveraging JD.com's solid retail infrastructure capabilities in areas such as retail, technology, logistics, and insurance</b>To build a complete reverse supply chain and export external capabilities.</p><p>In terms of funding, JD.com has also provided tremendous support to Wanwu Xinsheng. in 2015,<b>JD.com made an early move to participate in Wanwu Xinsheng's Series C financing.</b>In almost all of the subsequent rounds of financing, the investment was increased. To this day, JD.com has become the largest shareholder of Wanwu Xinsheng, holding 34.7% of the shares.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/291f9455ffca3312c81f6745545bdbf7\" tg-width=\"866\" tg-height=\"424\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Surprisingly,<b>Kuaishou</b>It also joined the ranks of investors in Wanwu Xinsheng Group in 2021. This means that with JD.com as its core reliance, Aihuishou has finally joined hands with Kuaishou to expand outside the Fifth Ring Road and reach out to young people in small towns who also have a strong demand for second-hand mobile phones and digital products.</p><p>Recalling his enthusiastic entry into this not-so-sexy business at the age of 31, Chen Xuefeng mentioned this past event in his open letter: Ten years ago, when it came to choosing a direction, we first set a principle: \"Do not go to places where everyone is contesting.\" Instead of following trends, it's better to do something that goes unnoticed but can create long-term value. Ultimately, the team started with a seemingly simple mobile phone recycling business.</p><p>The road to entrepreneurship is inevitably full of setbacks. Chen Xuefeng, who loves outdoor mountaineering, remarked that starting a business is like climbing a mountain—it involves ups and downs, passing through the fog, and standing on the mountaintop to see a different view. In his words, today's integrated platform business model was not achieved overnight, but rather the result of ten years of capability accumulation and ten years of model evolution.</p><p>“In the past, I believed that the bigger the scale, the better, and that big business is good business. Today, I believe that a healthy and sustainable business is good business, and a business that can achieve win-win resonance with society is good business.” In the next decade, he is aiming for a multi-billion dollar opportunity to make this unsexy business sexy.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>AiRecycle listed on the NYSE, opening 31.21% higher on its first day of trading.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAiRecycle listed on the NYSE, opening 31.21% higher on its first day of trading.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-06-19 00:11</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>On June 18, an online second-hand electronics sales platform<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RERE\">Love recycling</a>It opened 31.21% higher at $18.37 on its first day of trading on the New York Stock Exchange, with a total market capitalization of $4.678 billion.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8076b9e3d9cb89fc46a4b6aa923eaaea\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"2222\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Tonight, Fudan University students born in the 1980s led their team to the IPO bell ringing stage.</p><p>Wanwu Xinsheng (Aihuishou) Group, China's largest second-hand consumer electronics trading and service platform, successfully listed on the New York Stock Exchange, becoming the first Chinese company listed on the US Stock Exchange for ESG. The IPO price was $14, corresponding to a market capitalization of $3.565 billion (approximately RMB 23 billion).</p><p>Behind the rebirth of all things lies the entrepreneurial story of two Fudan University alumni. In 2011, Chen Xuefeng, who was already 31 years old, joined hands with his senior brother Sun Wenjun to enter an overlooked business - second-hand mobile phone recycling. Along the way, Wanwu Xinsheng has gone through a difficult period, and Chen Xuefeng was once rejected by investors. Now, the 41-year-old founder has finally achieved his first IPO.</p><p>The rise of all things is also inseparable from an investment team behind it. Prior to its IPO, Wanwu Xinsheng completed a financing round of over 7 billion yuan, bringing together companies such as Wuyuan Capital, Tiantu Investment, Jinglin Investment, Dachen Caizhi, Cathay Fund, Qianhai Fund of Funds, Tiger Global Fund, and Qicheng Capital.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601211\">Guotai Junan Securities</a>Fresh Capital<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">JD.com</a>More than ten VC/PE firms and giant companies, including Kuaishou, were present.</p><p>Looking back on our ten-year journey, Chen Xuefeng wrote in an open letter that we started from a seemingly simple mobile phone recycling business. \"Fortunately, we inadvertently entered such an industry that is easily underestimated. For a long time, we were misunderstood as a company that dismantled mobile phones and refined metals.\" He lamented that being \"underestimated\" in entrepreneurship may not be a bad thing, and many successes often stem from being \"underestimated.\"</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6e069bd4e7e98cc4e8ef67ef245de551\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"723\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Fudan University students \"collect trash\"</b></p><p><b>Starting from recycling old mobile phones, it achieved a market value of 23 billion yuan.</b></p><p>Behind the love of recycling lies the story of a Fudan University programmer who rose to become a CEO.</p><p>Chen Xuefeng, CEO of AiRecycle, was born in 1980.<b>Huangshi, Hubei</b>He excelled academically since elementary school. He received his undergraduate degree in Computer Science from Tongji University and later obtained his master's degree from the Department of Computer Science at Fudan University. In 2006, Chen Xuefeng joined a company in Shanghai as a technical manager, an experience that lasted for four years.</p><p>The original founding of Love Recycling<b>The inspiration came from the concept of swapping items a few years ago.</b>。 In 2008, Chen Xuefeng, who was still working as a programmer, saw a news report about \"exchanging a pin for a villa\". The news tells the story of an American man who, through barter, exchanged a paperclip for the right to use a two-story villa for a year in just over a year.</p><p>At that time, Chen Xuefeng, with his keen sense of smell, began to realize that with the development of China's economy, how to deal with excess household items had become a problem. Therefore,<b>That's how the idea of starting a business in the \"second-hand\" sector sprouted in Chen Xuefeng's mind. That year, he collaborated with Fudan University alumnus Sun Wenjun to build Leyi.com, a C2C platform for barter.</b>At the time, the project also received 100,000 yuan in startup funding from Fudan University.</p><p>After working part-time for two years, Chen Xuefeng began to devote himself full-time to website operation in 2010. At that time, the company's main employees were some part-time students from Fudan University, and most of them stayed with the team after graduation. However,<b>When the Leyi.com team expanded to more than 10 people, the project couldn't continue.</b>。</p><p>Chen Xuefeng review reflected: \"This project was unsuccessful.\"<b>There are three main reasons.</b>First, I have a technical background. When I was building the platform, I hoped to achieve matching through technical means, but it later proved to be very difficult. Secondly, due to our lack of market and user thinking, the project has strayed from the foundation; Thirdly, the platform's transaction volume is insufficient. We overlooked the fact that the 'pin-for-villa' case was accidental and took more than a year to complete intermittently. For the platform, the fragmented transaction demand cannot support valid orders.</p><p>The project's failure once brought the team to the brink of disbandment, but it also forced the team to calm down and think again. review behind closed doors, Chen Xuefeng believes that there are still opportunities in the second-hand industry.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>After the release of the iPhone 4, the booming sales of smartphones triggered a wave of upgrades among users of older mobile phones. This made Chen Xuefeng secretly guess, \"<b>Will mobile phone recycling become a growing demand?</b>？”</p><p>Therefore, the team set their sights on electronic product recycling. In 2011, AiRecycling was officially established in Shanghai. Initially, AiRecycle only operated an online platform, but because electronic products needed to undergo professional testing, the purely online method could easily lead to user disputes regarding product quality and price. The ensuing negative reviews, such as \"malicious price gouging\" and \"opaque procedures,\" almost crushed this young brand.</p><p>Faced with the crisis, Chen Xuefeng made an exceptionally difficult decision—<b>Open a physical store</b>, build<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300959\">Online and offline</a>A combined cargo control system. In December 2013, Aihuishou opened its first store in Shanghai Yaxin Plaza. Chen Xuefeng never expected that taking the step of setting up offline stores would almost get him into trouble again. “It’s hard and tiring for an internet company to open a store, and it’s considered stupid. Basically no one approves of it.”</p><p>It is the layout of offline stores that has enabled Aihuishou to extend into new businesses and ultimately possess the core competitiveness to dominate the market. Taking the one-stop trade-in service created by JD.com in partnership with Aihuishou as an example, the service continues to be popular with consumers, with a year-on-year growth of more than 311% in 2020. Thereafter,<b>The revenue share of Aihuishou's stores has been increasing, eventually reaching half of the total revenue.</b>From online to offline, AiRecycle has built a three-dimensional recycling scenario that combines point, network, and surface.</p><p>Today, Wanwu Xinsheng has built a vast empire, boasting four major business segments: the 3C product C2B recycling platform \"Aihuishou\", the B2B trading platform \"Paijitang\", the B2C retail platform \"Paipai\", and the overseas \"AHS DEVICE\". It has captured a large portion of the second-hand 3C market. As of the end of March 2021, in the past 12 months, Wanwu Xinsheng Group had transacted more than 26.1 million second-hand goods across all platforms, with a total GMV of 22.8 billion yuan during the same period, ranking first in the Chinese market.</p><p>With this IPO, the true situation of this second-hand unicorn has come to light: the prospectus shows that from 2018 to 2020, the company's revenue was RMB 3.262 billion, RMB 3.932 billion and RMB 4.858 billion, respectively. And,<b>The company's overall gross profit margin in 2020 was 25.7%, a figure higher than that of some mobile phone manufacturers.</b>However, according to the prospectus, Wanwu Xinsheng has accumulated losses of nearly 1.4 billion yuan in the past three years.<b>Profitability remains one of the challenges facing this industry.</b>。</p><p>After ten years of entrepreneurship, Chen Xuefeng finally led Wanwu Xinsheng to open the doors of the New York Stock Exchange, becoming the first Chinese concept ESG stock. On the first day of listing,<b>The issue price of Wanwu Xinsheng is $14, with a market value of 23 billion yuan.</b>。</p><p><b>First investment of $2 million</b></p><p><b>At one point, no one recognized it, and the TS was torn up twice.</b></p><p>Along the way, behind the rebirth of all things, a group has quietly gathered.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DLX\">luxury</a>Investor team.</p><p>Before the IPO,<b>Wanwu Xinsheng has completed at least eight rounds of financing totaling over 7 billion yuan.</b>Behind him appeared...<b>Wuyuan Capital, Tiantu Investment, Jinglin Investment, Dachen Caizhi, Cathay Fund, Qianhai Fund of Funds, Tiger Global Fund, Qicheng Capital<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02611\">Guotai Junan Securities</a>Qingxin Capital, JD.com, Kuaishou</b>More than ten VC/PE institutions and giant companies were present.</p><p>Among them, Wanwu Xinsheng's first investment came from...<b>Five Sources Capital</b>。 After Leyi.com's entrepreneurial journey came to an end, Chen Xuefeng had the idea of recycling second-hand mobile phones. One day in 2011, he came to Five Sources Capital's Shanghai office. \"He took the initiative to contact our colleagues. We met in Five Sources' office and listened to Chen Xuefeng's introduction. He showed us a low-end business that we almost never see in our normal lives,\" recalled Shi Jianming, founding partner of Five Sources Capital.</p><p>At that time, the entrepreneurial trend on social media almost dominated the attention of all investors, and no one paid attention to the inconspicuous industry of second-hand e-commerce. But Chen Xuefeng's idea hit Shi Jianming's pain point.<b>I'm a die-hard electronics enthusiast myself, and at the time I was also worried about what to do with a drawer full of used mobile phones.</b>。”</p><p>Upon their first meeting, this young man born in the 1980s piqued Five Sources Capital's interest in this unassuming market. Shi Jianming began to realize that second-hand mobile phones are a huge social problem and also a huge market. \"You could say that Chen Xuefeng helped us open the door to second-hand mobile phone recycling.\"</p><p>Looking back, what impressed Shi Jianming most was the secondhand market in Shanghai's never-sleeping city described by Chen Xuefeng. The Wuyuan Capital team later went to this market specifically to conduct research, and they discovered...<b>From the sales staff on the first floor of the market to the second-hand mobile phone wholesalers on the fourth floor, interviews revealed serious market ineffectiveness.</b>。” Shi Jianming told the investment community that if someone can solve this social problem, it will definitely be of great value.</p><p>However, at the time, the business model that Aihuishou hoped to establish had no comparable companies abroad, and the recycling of second-hand mobile phones was relatively infrequent, so it was not easy to do so. Even so, Shi Jianming and Wuyuan Capital were still impressed by the high-achieving student in front of them, who had graduated from Tongji University with a bachelor's degree and Fudan University with a master's degree. This is because Chen Xuefeng is willing to invest a lot of time and energy in something that seems unreliable in the short term, and it is also based on the trust built between the two parties and the shared vision.</p><p>In October 2011, although AiRecycling was still just an idea, Five Sources Capital still invested in Chen Xuefeng's team.<b>$2 million</b>This is also the first investment made by Wanwu New Life since its inception. Over the years that followed, Five Sources Capital has been by Chen Xuefeng's side, providing him with considerable encouragement and support.</p><p>In 2013, Wanwu Xinsheng, which had just taken its first step in opening offline stores, faced its darkest moment. Chen Xuefeng once recalled: \"At that time, the traffic model of Internet companies was in full swing. It was dirty, tiring and stupid for an Internet company to open a store. Basically no one recognized it.\" Even the TS (Letter of Intent for Investment) that had been signed with the investor was torn up twice.</p><p><b>With nowhere else to turn, Five Sources Capital once again provided Chen Xuefeng's team with a $1 million bridge loan.</b>\"$1 million may not seem like a big number today, but it was a very important support at the time,\" Chen Xuefeng said with emotion.</p><p>After ten years of companionship, Wuyuan Capital has been arguably the most steadfast companion, betting on five rounds of financing for Wanwu Xinsheng, holding 14.0% of the shares and becoming its largest VC investor.</p><p><b>There are also a number of well-known VCs/PEs behind it.</b></p><p><b>Why are they interested in the second-hand market?</b></p><p>Having weathered the darkest hour, the financing of Wanwu Xinsheng is gradually opening up a new situation.</p><p>Around 2014,<b>Tiantu Investment began conducting extensive research and investigation into the \"secondhand business\" model, and in the process, they scanned the digital vertical category.</b>Wanwu Xinsheng (then called \"Love Recycling\") thus entered the field of vision of Tiantu Investment.</p><p>“At that time, AiRecycle was at a turning point in its business. We were just starting to develop offline chain stores. At that time, many institutions in the market were not optimistic about chain stores, and we were in the era of smartphone growth. People still had some misunderstandings about AiRecycle’s second-hand electronic product recycling model, thinking that it was ‘collecting waste.’ However, we had experience in investing in chain stores, and the two sides hit it off immediately,” Wei Guoxing recalled to the investment community. According to Li Kanglin, a partner at Tiantu Investment, Chen Xuefeng is an S-level entrepreneur whom they greatly admire and recognize, which aligns with Tiantu Investment's vision of being the most outstanding entrepreneur.</p><p>Starting in 2015, Tiantu Investment led two consecutive rounds of financing for Wanwu Xinsheng, and acquired a larger proportion of its investment in subsequent financings. This left Chen Xuefeng deeply moved: \"Shortly after Tiantu invested, I made a special trip to Shenzhen to consult with Tiantu CEO Mr. Feng (Feng Weidong). One year, during the annual meeting, I even specially invited Mr. Feng to Aihuishou to talk about the brand strategy for all employees. This was of great help to us.\"</p><p>For example, Jintiantu Investment holds 8.5% of Wanwu Xinsheng, which is its<b>Second largest financial investor</b>。 Years of successful bets have brought Tiantu Investment dozens of times the return.</p><p>Arrived<b>In 2016, Wanwu Xinsheng completed 400 million yuan Series D financing</b>The company boasts an impressive lineup of investors, with Dachen Capital being one of the lead investors. \"Investing in Zhonghai Recycling at this time is not only due to the favorable timing and location, but also to the Dachen team's in-depth observation and accurate judgment of this track.\"<b>Dachen Finance</b>Yang Tinghui, a partner in the consumer and enterprise services industry, told the investment community that China's 3C consumer recycling market will experience rapid growth at that time, and the industrial internet is also entering its first half, making it the best time to invest before the industry reaches a turning point.</p><p>Over the years, Dachen Finance has been deeply involved in the second-hand economy. In addition to Wanwu Xinsheng, it has also successively invested in companies such as Little Bear U Rental and Fat Tiger Technology. Xiao Bing, Managing Partner and President of Dachen Finance, firmly believes that:<b>As the mobile internet enters its second phase, the traffic dividend has ended, and supply chain capabilities will become the core differentiating capability for each company.</b>Therefore, in addition to continuing to conduct top-down industry research and due diligence, we must remain patient and hold our bullets until the company that meets Dachen's investment aesthetics appears and hits the mark.</p><p>Also making a move in this round<b>Cathay Fund</b>Later, the bets were increased in 2018. Duan Lanchun, Managing Partner of Cathay Capital, said: \"Wanwu Xinsheng not only provides a better and more convenient experience for thousands of users, but also makes long-term efforts for the low-carbon economy and the sustainable development of China's economy. We believe that the huge potential inherent in China's second-hand electronics trading and service market will further deepen the 'flywheel effect' under the integrated enterprise platform, and will continue to support socially responsible companies like Wanwu Xinsheng.\"</p><p>Qicheng Capital is also another important investor in Wanwu Xinsheng. Actually, back in 2013, it was still on JD.com.<b>Inheritance Capital</b>Partners Chang Bin and Chen Xuefeng already knew each other, and he facilitated a win-win strategic cooperation between JD.com and Wanwu Xinsheng. In 2019, based on its continued optimism about the prospects of the second-hand 3C trading market and the company's in-depth layout, Qicheng Capital made additional investments in the rapidly developing Wanwu Xinsheng, which yielded substantial returns.</p><p><b>Qingxin Capital</b>Also in June 2019 and September of the following year,<b>Participated in the Series E and Series E+ financing of Wanwu Xinsheng</b>Through diversified cooperation at the capital and business levels, it has accompanied and witnessed the growth of this unicorn, and now it is entering its harvest period.</p><p><b>JD.com and Kuaishou have also entered an undervalued industry.</b></p><p><b>The 41-year-old founder's net worth is 2.5 billion.</b></p><p>Of course, looking back at the financing process of Wanwu Xinsheng, JD.com is an indispensable player.</p><p>Firstly, in terms of business, in June 2019, Wanwu Xinsheng merged with Paipai, a subsidiary of JD.com, to make up for the shortcomings in its B2C business and ultimately form a complete closed loop of C2B+B2B+B2C. This is a powerful chemical reaction, and also a \"turnaround against the trend\" for all things to be reborn.</p><p>Prior to this, Paipai and Aihuishou had had in-depth business cooperation for many years, and \"they have been family for a long time.\" Liao Jianwen, Chief Strategy Officer of JD.com, once discussed the logic behind this merger: \"JD.com has always been optimistic about the social innovation significance of the circular economy. Over the past few years, AiRecycle and Paipai have established a solid foundation for cooperation.\"<b>A benchmark for collaborative and win-win cooperation within the JD.com ecosystem</b>。 Through this strategic merger, both parties will further improve the standardization and circulation efficiency of second-hand products, and promote the transparency and automation of the recycling and disposal supply chain. At the same time,<b>Leveraging JD.com's solid retail infrastructure capabilities in areas such as retail, technology, logistics, and insurance</b>To build a complete reverse supply chain and export external capabilities.</p><p>In terms of funding, JD.com has also provided tremendous support to Wanwu Xinsheng. in 2015,<b>JD.com made an early move to participate in Wanwu Xinsheng's Series C financing.</b>In almost all of the subsequent rounds of financing, the investment was increased. To this day, JD.com has become the largest shareholder of Wanwu Xinsheng, holding 34.7% of the shares.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/291f9455ffca3312c81f6745545bdbf7\" tg-width=\"866\" tg-height=\"424\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Surprisingly,<b>Kuaishou</b>It also joined the ranks of investors in Wanwu Xinsheng Group in 2021. This means that with JD.com as its core reliance, Aihuishou has finally joined hands with Kuaishou to expand outside the Fifth Ring Road and reach out to young people in small towns who also have a strong demand for second-hand mobile phones and digital products.</p><p>Recalling his enthusiastic entry into this not-so-sexy business at the age of 31, Chen Xuefeng mentioned this past event in his open letter: Ten years ago, when it came to choosing a direction, we first set a principle: \"Do not go to places where everyone is contesting.\" Instead of following trends, it's better to do something that goes unnoticed but can create long-term value. Ultimately, the team started with a seemingly simple mobile phone recycling business.</p><p>The road to entrepreneurship is inevitably full of setbacks. Chen Xuefeng, who loves outdoor mountaineering, remarked that starting a business is like climbing a mountain—it involves ups and downs, passing through the fog, and standing on the mountaintop to see a different view. In his words, today's integrated platform business model was not achieved overnight, but rather the result of ten years of capability accumulation and ten years of model evolution.</p><p>“In the past, I believed that the bigger the scale, the better, and that big business is good business. Today, I believe that a healthy and sustainable business is good business, and a business that can achieve win-win resonance with society is good business.” In the next decade, he is aiming for a multi-billion dollar opportunity to make this unsexy business sexy.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6e069bd4e7e98cc4e8ef67ef245de551","relate_stocks":{"RERE":"爱回收"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1140655086","content_text":"6月18日，互联网二手电子产品销售平台爱回收在纽约证交所首日挂牌高开31.21%，报18.37美元，总市值46.78亿美元。\n\n今晚，80后复旦学子率队站上了IPO敲钟舞台。\n中国最大的二手消费电子产品交易和服务平台——万物新生（爱回收）集团成功在纽交所挂牌上市，成为中概股ESG第一股。此次IPO发行价为14美元，对应市值35.65亿美元（约合人民币230亿元）。\n万物新生背后，是一对复旦师兄弟的创业故事。2011年，已经31岁的陈雪峰联手师兄孙文俊踏入一门被忽视的生意——二手手机回收。一路走来，万物新生曾经历一段艰难岁月，陈雪峰一度被投资人拒之门外。如今，这位41岁创始人终于斩获人生第一个IPO。\n而万物新生的崛起，同样离不开身后一支投资天团。IPO前，万物新生完成超70亿元的融资，浮现了五源资本、天图投资、景林投资、达晨财智、凯辉基金、前海母基金、老虎环球基金、启承资本、国泰君安、清新资本、京东、快手等十余家VC/PE机构和巨头企业的身影。\n回望十年历程，陈雪峰在公开信写到，我们从一个看似简单的手机回收业务出发，“很幸运，我们不经意之间进入到了这样一个容易被低估的行业。很长一段时间，我们一度被误解为是一个做手机拆解和提炼金属的公司。”他感慨，创业中“被低估”很可能并不是坏事，很多成功往往都源于“被低估”。\n\n复旦学子「收垃圾」\n从回收旧手机起家，做出230亿市值\n爱回收的背后，是一位复旦程序员进阶CEO的逆袭故事。\n1980年，爱回收CEO陈雪峰出生于湖北黄石，从小学习成绩出众。他本科就读于同济大学计算机科学专业，之后又在复旦大学计算机系取得硕士学位。2006年，陈雪峰入职上海一家公司担任技术经理，这段经历持续了4年。\n爱回收最初的创立灵感缘于几年前的换物概念。2008年，还在做程序员的陈雪峰看到一则“别针换别墅”的新闻。新闻讲述了一个美国男子通过以物易物的方式，在一年多时间里，用一枚曲别针换来一栋双层别墅一年使用权的故事。\n彼时，嗅觉敏锐的陈雪峰开始意识到，伴随着中国经济的发展，如何处理家庭多余物品成为一个问题。于是，“二手”方向的创业想法就这样在陈雪峰脑海中萌发。这一年，他联合复旦校友孙文俊，搭建了以物换物的C2C平台乐易网，当时这个项目还获得来自复旦大学的10万元创业基金。\n兼职做了两年之后，2010年陈雪峰开始全职投入网站运营。彼时，公司主要员工是复旦大学的一些兼职学生，这部分人毕业之后也基本都留在了这个团队。然而，当乐易网团队扩张到超过10个人的时候，这个项目却做不下去了。\n陈雪峰复盘反思: “这个项目不成功的原因主要有三点：第一，我本人是技术出身，做平台的时候希望通过技术手段来实现匹配，但后来被证实难度很高；第二是由于我们市场和用户思维不足，项目脱离了基础；第三是平台交易量不足，我们忽视了‘别针换别墅’的案例具有偶然性，而且是断断续续用了一年多时间才完成的，对于平台而言，零散的交易需求无法支撑起有效订单。”\n项目失败一度让团队濒临解散，也让团队重新冷静下来思考。关起门来认真复盘，陈雪峰认为二手行业依然存在机遇。苹果手机发布iPhone4后，智能手机的热卖引发了旧版手机用户的换机潮。这让陈雪峰心里暗暗猜度，“手机回收会不会成为一个增长的需求？”\n于是，团队将方向瞄准电子产品回收。2011年，爱回收正式在上海诞生。最初爱回收只做线上平台，但由于电子产品需要经过专业检测，纯线上方式容易在商品品质和价格方面产生用户纠纷。随之而来的负面评价，如“恶意压价”、“程序不透明”也差点压垮了这个年轻的品牌。\n危机面前，陈雪峰做出了一个异常艰难的决定——开线下店，搭建线上线下结合的控货体系。2013年12月，爱回收在上海亚新广场开出了第一家门店。陈雪峰没想到，迈出布局线下门店这一步，又差点让他陷入困境。“一家互联网公司要去做门店，那是又苦又累，还被认为很蠢的事，基本没有人认可。”\n正是线下门店的布局，让爱回收有能力延伸出新的业务，最终拥有称霸市场的核心竞争力。以京东携手爱回收打造的一站式以旧换新服务为例，该服务持续受到消费者热捧，2020年同比增长超过311%。此后，爱回收的门店收入占比不断升高，最后甚至达到了总收入的一半。从线上到线下，爱回收构建起一个点、网、面结合的立体式回收场景。\n如今，万物新生已然筑成了一个庞大版图，坐拥3C产品C2B回收平台“爱回收”、B2B交易平台“拍机堂”、B2C零售平台“拍拍”，以及瞄准海外“AHS DEVICE”四大业务板块，打下了二手3C江湖的大半江山——截至2021年3月末的过去12个月，万物新生集团全平台成交的二手商品超过2610万台，同期全平台GMV总量为228亿元，均位列中国市场第一。\n随着此次IPO，这家二手独角兽的真实情况浮现：招股书显示，2018年至2020年，公司营收分别为32.62亿元、39.32亿元和48.58亿元。并且，公司2020年的整体毛利率为25.7%，这个数字已经比一些手机厂商还高。不过根据招股书统计，在过去的三年里，万物新生累计亏损近14亿元，盈利仍然是这个行业所直面的难题之一。\n十年创业，陈雪峰终于率领万物新生敲开了纽交所的大门，成为中概股ESG第一股。上市首日，万物新生发行价14美元，市值230亿元。\n第一笔投资200万美元\n一度无人认可，TS被撕毁两次\n一路走来，万物新生背后悄悄集结一支豪华投资人队伍。\nIPO前，万物新生至少进行了8轮累计超70亿元的融资，身后浮现了包括五源资本、天图投资、景林投资、达晨财智、凯辉基金、前海母基金、老虎环球基金、启承资本、国泰君安、清新资本、京东、快手等十余家VC/PE机构和巨头企业的身影。\n其中，万物新生的第一笔投资来自五源资本。在乐易网创业历程告一段落之后，陈雪峰萌生了回收二手手机的想法。2011年的一天，他来到了五源资本上海办公室，“他主动联系了我们的同事，我们在五源的办公室见面听了陈雪峰的介绍，他向我们展示的是个低端到几乎我们正常生活里面看不见的生意。”五源资本创始合伙人石建明回忆。\n彼时，社交媒体上的创业风潮几乎霸占了所有投资人的目光，没有人留意到二手电商这个不起眼的行业。但陈雪峰的创意切中了石建明的痛点，“我自己是重度电子产品爱好者，当时也在发愁一抽屉二手手机怎么办。”\n第一次见面，这位80后年轻人激起了五源资本对这个不起眼的市场的兴趣。石建明开始意识到，二手手机是一个巨大的社会问题，同时也是一个巨大的市场，“可以说，是陈雪峰帮我们打开了二手手机回收这个门。”\n回想当年，石建明印象最为深刻的是陈雪峰所描述的一个上海不夜城二手市场，五源资本团队后来专门去到了这个市场做调研，他发现，“从市场一楼的营业员开始一直访谈到四楼的二手手机批发商，这中间存在着严重的市场无效。”石建明告诉投资界，如果有人能够解决这个社会问题，一定有非常大价值。\n但当时爱回收所希望建立的商业模式在国外也没有对标公司，二手手机回收这件事也相对低频，要做起来并不容易。即使如此，石建明和五源资本还是被眼前这位来自同济本科、复旦研究生毕业的高材生打动了。这在于，陈雪峰愿意投入巨大的时间精力去做一件短期内看似不太靠谱的事情，也基于双方所建立起来的信任，以及所分享的相同愿景。\n2011年10月，尽管此时的爱回收还只是一个idea，五源资本依然出手向陈雪峰团队投资了200万美元，这也是万物新生创立以来的第一笔投资。在随后的多年里，五源资本一直陪伴在陈雪峰的左右给予了不少激励和支持。\n这其中在2013年，刚刚迈出线下开店第一步的万物新生迎来至暗时刻，陈雪峰曾回忆：“当时互联网公司的流量模式如火如荼，一家互联网公司去做门店，那是又脏、又累还很蠢，基本没有人认可”，甚至与投资方已经签订完成的TS（投资意向书）还被撕毁了两次。\n走投无路之际，五源资本再次给予了陈雪峰团队100万美元的过桥贷款。“今天看起来100万美元好像不是一个很大的数字，但在当时是非常重要的一个支持。”陈雪峰感慨说。\n十年相伴，五源资本堪称最坚定的陪跑者，连续押注了万物新生5轮融资，持股14.0%是其最大VC投资方。\n背后还有一众知名VC/PE\n他们为何看上二手市场\n走过至暗时刻，万物新生的融资渐渐打开局面。\n2014年左右，天图投资开始对“二手生意”模式进行大量研究和调研，在这个过程中扫描到了数码这一垂直品类，万物新生（彼时还叫“爱回收”）由此进入到了天图投资的视野中来。\n“当时的爱回收恰好处在业务转折点，刚开始布局线下连锁门店，那个时候市场上很多机构还不看好连锁，而且彼时正处在智能手机的增量时代，大家对爱回收的二手电子产品回收模式还存在一定的误解，认为是‘收废品的’，而我们对投连锁有经验，双方一拍即合。”魏国兴向投资界回忆。而在天图投资合伙人李康林看来，陈雪峰是他们非常欣赏和认可的S级创业者，契合了天图投资心目中最优秀企业家的想象。\n2015年开始，天图投资连续两轮领投了万物新生的融资，并在后来的融资中超比例加持。这也让陈雪峰感慨颇深：“天图投资后不久，我专程去深圳跟天图CEO冯总（冯卫东）请教过一次，甚至有一年开年会的时候特地请冯总到爱回收针对全员讲了一次品牌战略，这个对我们的帮助是很大的。”\n如今天图投资持股万物新生8.5%，是其第二大财务投资人。多年来的成功押注，也为天图投资带来数十倍的回报。\n到了2016年，万物新生完成了4亿元D轮融资，投资方阵容亮眼，而达晨财智便是领投方之一。“在这个时间点投中爱回收，除了天时地利，更来自于达晨团队对这一赛道深入的观察与准确的判断。”达晨财智大消费与企业服务行业合伙人杨廷辉向投资界表示，彼时中国3C消费回收市场将迎来高速增长，产业互联网也正跑步进入上半场，正是行业爆发拐点之前的最佳投资时间。\n多年来，达晨财智在二手经济领域布局颇深，除万物新生外，还相继投出了小熊U租、胖虎科技等。达晨财智执行合伙人、总裁肖冰坚定地认为：“移动互联网走向下半场，流量红利已经结束，供应链能力将成为各家的核心差异化能力。所以除了继续做自上而下的行业研究和尽调，一直保持耐心，持有子弹直到那家符合达晨投资审美的企业出现，正中红心。”\n同样在这轮出手的凯辉基金，后来又在2018年加注。凯辉基金管理合伙人段兰春表示：“万物新生不仅为万千用户提供了更好更便利的体验，更是为低碳经济与中国经济可持续发展做出长远努力。我们相信中国二手电子产品交易和服务市场所蕴含的巨大潜力将进一步深化企业一体化平台下的‘飞轮效应’，也将一如既往支持万物新生这样极具社会责任感的企业。”\n而启承资本也是万物新生的另一重要投资方。其实早在2013年，彼时还在京东的启承资本合伙人常斌与陈雪峰就已经相识，他促成了京东和万物新生双赢的战略合作。到了2019年，基于对二手3C交易市场前景和公司深度布局的持续看好，启承资本又对高速发展中的万物新生追加了投资，回报颇丰。\n清新资本也分别于2019年6月和次年9月，参与了万物新生的E轮与E+轮融资，通过资本与业务层面的多元化合作，陪伴和见证了这家独角兽的的成长，如今也迎来收获期。\n一个被低估的行业，京东快手也来了\n41岁创始人身家25亿\n当然，回顾万物新生的融资历程，京东是不可或缺的角色。\n首先在业务上，2019年6月万物新生合并了京东旗下的拍拍，补齐了自身B2C业务的短板，最终形成C2B+B2B+B2C的完整闭环。这是一次强强联合的化学反应，也是万物新生的“逆势翻盘”。\n在此之前，拍拍与爱回收已有多年深度业务合作，“很早就是一家人”。京东集团首席战略官廖建文曾谈到这一合并背后的逻辑：“京东始终看好循环经济的社会创新意义，过去几年来，爱回收与拍拍建立了良好的合作基础，是京东生态中协同共赢的标杆。双方通过此次战略合并，将进一步提升二手产品的标准化和流转效率，推动回收处置供应链的透明化和自动化。同时，借助京东在零售、技术、物流、保险等领域坚实的零售基础设施能力，打造完整的逆向供应链，并形成对外能力输出。”\n而在资金上，京东也给予了万物新生巨大的支持。2015年，京东早早出手参与了万物新生的C轮融资，随后的几轮融资里几乎都加注。直至今日，京东成为万物新生的最大股东，持股比例达34.7%。\n\n令人意外的是，快手也于2021年加入到了万物新生集团的投资方阵营中。这意味着，在有了京东这一核心倚仗后，爱回收终于牵起快手走向五环外，奔向同样对二手手机数码产品需求旺盛的小镇青年。\n回想31岁时一腔热血杀入这门并不性感的生意，陈雪峰在公开信提到这段往事：十年前，关于方向选择，我们首先定了个原则：\"众争之地勿往\"。与其跟风，不如去做一个不被人关注但是能长期创造价值的事情。最终，团队从一个看似简单的手机回收业务出发。\n创业路上少不了坎坷，酷爱户外登山的陈雪峰感慨，创业如登山——起起伏伏，穿越迷雾，站上山头，才能看到不一样的风景。用他的话来说，今天的一体化平台商业模式，不是一蹴而就的，而是十年能力积累和十年模式进化的结果。\n“早些年，我认为规模越大越好，大生意就是好生意。今天，我认为健康持久的生意是好生意，能与社会共赢共振的生意是好生意。”而下一个十年，他瞄准的是百亿美金的机会，让这门不性感的生意变得性感起来。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"RERE":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1971,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":168089819,"gmtCreate":1623943812531,"gmtModify":1703824282962,"author":{"id":"3586167248367118","authorId":"3586167248367118","name":"TanTH","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f9317bf33bd64e46c21c589d7bac5157","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586167248367118","idStr":"3586167248367118"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"??","listText":"??","text":"??","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/168089819","repostId":"2143769003","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1957,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":161104573,"gmtCreate":1623908576292,"gmtModify":1703823263272,"author":{"id":"3586167248367118","authorId":"3586167248367118","name":"TanTH","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f9317bf33bd64e46c21c589d7bac5157","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586167248367118","idStr":"3586167248367118"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"??","listText":"??","text":"??","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/161104573","repostId":"1186688505","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1186688505","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1623891302,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1186688505?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-17 08:55","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Youran Animal Husbandry has an 80% success rate in a single lot, with one lot guaranteed after subscribing to 3 lots.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1186688505","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"6月17日消息，本周四优然牧业发布公告，公司发行7.15亿股股份，每股定价6.98港元，每手1000股，预期将于6月18日上市。\n公开发售阶段优然牧业获3.73倍认购，分配至公开发售的发售股份最终数目","content":"<p>June 17th news, this Thursday<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09858\">Youran Animal Husbandry</a>The company issued an announcement stating that it will issue 715 million shares at a price of HK$6.98 per share, with 1,000 shares per lot, and is expected to list on June 18.</p><p>During the public offering phase, Youran Dairy was subscribed 3.73 times, and the final number of offer shares allocated to the public offering was 71.544 million shares, accounting for 10% of the total number of offer shares (before any over-allotment option was exercised). A total of 28,283 valid applications were received, with an 80% success rate per lot, and one lot was guaranteed to be successful after subscribing to 3 lots.</p><p>In addition, the international offering was oversubscribed, with the final number of shares offered being 644 million (excluding over-allocated shares), representing 90% of the total number of shares offered. The relevant data compiled by Tiger News is shown in the table below:<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a2349a0d398ab0b7c627322586dc1995\" tg-width=\"661\" tg-height=\"550\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>Subscription ladder:</b></p><p>Each lot consists of 1,000 shares, with an entry fee of HK$8,747.26. The winning rate for one lot is 80%, and subscribing to three lots is guaranteed to win one lot.</p><p>The threshold for Group B is 600,000 shares, and the funds required for subscription are approximately HK$5,248,360.09.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/183b55b260a699e4eed6d62b7a2b20d9\" tg-width=\"713\" tg-height=\"208\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/baef5fa28b0cc392f49dad86d7d64628\" tg-width=\"721\" tg-height=\"786\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/46328b4384685df91ed4359f3713a90a\" tg-width=\"714\" tg-height=\"329\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">During the public offering phase, Youran Dairy was subscribed 3.73 times, and the final number of offer shares allocated to the public offering was 71.544 million shares, accounting for 10% of the total number of offer shares (before any over-allotment option was exercised). A total of 28,283 valid applications were received, with an 80% success rate per lot, and one lot was guaranteed to be successful after subscribing to 3 lots.</p><p>In addition, the international offering was oversubscribed, with the final number of shares offered being 644 million (excluding over-allocated shares), representing 90% of the total number of shares offered. The relevant data compiled by Tiger News is shown in the table below:</p><p>Regarding the use of funds, the company plans to use the net proceeds of approximately HK$3.238 billion from the global offering for the following purposes: approximately 75% will be allocated to fund investment projects over the next two years, including the construction of ranches under construction, newly built ranches and feed production bases and the purchase of necessary facilities and equipment for them; Approximately 15% may be allocated to pastures to purchase dairy cows; Approximately 10% will be allocated for working capital and general corporate purposes.</p><p>It is understood that Youran Dairy was founded in 1984 and was once a wholly-owned subsidiary of Yili, the world's fifth-largest dairy manufacturer. In 2015, it spun off its business from Yili for operation. The company has now developed into a leader in China's upstream dairy market, with its business layout covering the entire upstream dairy industry chain from breeding to feed and raw milk production.</p><p>According to Frost & Sullivan,<b>Based on 2020 revenue, the company is China's largest upstream integrated dairy product and service provider.</b>The company provides high-quality raw milk to large dairy manufacturers and ruminant farming products and services to ranches through two business segments: raw milk and ruminant farming systematic solutions. Yili is Youran Dairy's largest customer.</p><p>In terms of financial data, the company's total revenue was RMB 6.334 billion, RMB 7.668 billion and RMB 11.781 billion from 2018 to 2020, respectively, with a compound annual growth rate of 36.4%; During the same period, the company recorded net profits of RMB 653 million, RMB 802 million and RMB 1.541 billion, respectively, with a compound annual growth rate of 53.6%.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Youran Animal Husbandry has an 80% success rate in a single lot, with one lot guaranteed after subscribing to 3 lots.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nYouran Animal Husbandry has an 80% success rate in a single lot, with one lot guaranteed after subscribing to 3 lots.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-06-17 08:55</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>June 17th news, this Thursday<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09858\">Youran Animal Husbandry</a>The company issued an announcement stating that it will issue 715 million shares at a price of HK$6.98 per share, with 1,000 shares per lot, and is expected to list on June 18.</p><p>During the public offering phase, Youran Dairy was subscribed 3.73 times, and the final number of offer shares allocated to the public offering was 71.544 million shares, accounting for 10% of the total number of offer shares (before any over-allotment option was exercised). A total of 28,283 valid applications were received, with an 80% success rate per lot, and one lot was guaranteed to be successful after subscribing to 3 lots.</p><p>In addition, the international offering was oversubscribed, with the final number of shares offered being 644 million (excluding over-allocated shares), representing 90% of the total number of shares offered. The relevant data compiled by Tiger News is shown in the table below:<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a2349a0d398ab0b7c627322586dc1995\" tg-width=\"661\" tg-height=\"550\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>Subscription ladder:</b></p><p>Each lot consists of 1,000 shares, with an entry fee of HK$8,747.26. The winning rate for one lot is 80%, and subscribing to three lots is guaranteed to win one lot.</p><p>The threshold for Group B is 600,000 shares, and the funds required for subscription are approximately HK$5,248,360.09.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/183b55b260a699e4eed6d62b7a2b20d9\" tg-width=\"713\" tg-height=\"208\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/baef5fa28b0cc392f49dad86d7d64628\" tg-width=\"721\" tg-height=\"786\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/46328b4384685df91ed4359f3713a90a\" tg-width=\"714\" tg-height=\"329\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">During the public offering phase, Youran Dairy was subscribed 3.73 times, and the final number of offer shares allocated to the public offering was 71.544 million shares, accounting for 10% of the total number of offer shares (before any over-allotment option was exercised). A total of 28,283 valid applications were received, with an 80% success rate per lot, and one lot was guaranteed to be successful after subscribing to 3 lots.</p><p>In addition, the international offering was oversubscribed, with the final number of shares offered being 644 million (excluding over-allocated shares), representing 90% of the total number of shares offered. The relevant data compiled by Tiger News is shown in the table below:</p><p>Regarding the use of funds, the company plans to use the net proceeds of approximately HK$3.238 billion from the global offering for the following purposes: approximately 75% will be allocated to fund investment projects over the next two years, including the construction of ranches under construction, newly built ranches and feed production bases and the purchase of necessary facilities and equipment for them; Approximately 15% may be allocated to pastures to purchase dairy cows; Approximately 10% will be allocated for working capital and general corporate purposes.</p><p>It is understood that Youran Dairy was founded in 1984 and was once a wholly-owned subsidiary of Yili, the world's fifth-largest dairy manufacturer. In 2015, it spun off its business from Yili for operation. The company has now developed into a leader in China's upstream dairy market, with its business layout covering the entire upstream dairy industry chain from breeding to feed and raw milk production.</p><p>According to Frost & Sullivan,<b>Based on 2020 revenue, the company is China's largest upstream integrated dairy product and service provider.</b>The company provides high-quality raw milk to large dairy manufacturers and ruminant farming products and services to ranches through two business segments: raw milk and ruminant farming systematic solutions. Yili is Youran Dairy's largest customer.</p><p>In terms of financial data, the company's total revenue was RMB 6.334 billion, RMB 7.668 billion and RMB 11.781 billion from 2018 to 2020, respectively, with a compound annual growth rate of 36.4%; During the same period, the company recorded net profits of RMB 653 million, RMB 802 million and RMB 1.541 billion, respectively, with a compound annual growth rate of 53.6%.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/22fb0a544aa253b668379d9f58bbe5a9","relate_stocks":{"09858":"优然牧业"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1186688505","content_text":"6月17日消息，本周四优然牧业发布公告，公司发行7.15亿股股份，每股定价6.98港元，每手1000股，预期将于6月18日上市。\n公开发售阶段优然牧业获3.73倍认购，分配至公开发售的发售股份最终数目为7154.4万股，占发售股份总数的10%（任何超额配股权获行使前）。合共接获28283份有效申请，一手中签率80%，认购3手稳中一手。\n此外，国际发售获超额认购，发售股份最终数目为6.44亿股（不包括超额分配股份），相当于发售股份总数的90%。老虎资讯整理相关数据如下表：申购阶梯：\n每手1000股，入场费8,747.26港元。一手中签率80%，认购3手稳中一手。\n乙组门槛为60万股，申购所需资金约5,248,360.09港元。公开发售阶段优然牧业获3.73倍认购，分配至公开发售的发售股份最终数目为7154.4万股，占发售股份总数的10%（任何超额配股权获行使前）。合共接获28283份有效申请，一手中签率80%，认购3手稳中一手。\n此外，国际发售获超额认购，发售股份最终数目为6.44亿股（不包括超额分配股份），相当于发售股份总数的90%。老虎资讯整理相关数据如下表：\n筹资用途方面，公司拟将全球发售所得款项净额约32.38亿港元用于以下用途：约75%将分配用于拨付未来两年的投资项目，包括兴建正在建设的牧场、新建的牧场及饲料生产基地并为其购置所需设施设备；约15%或将分配用于牧场购买奶牛；约10%将分配用于营运资金及一般企业用途。\n据悉，优然牧业成立于1984年，曾作为全球排名第五的大型乳制品制造商伊利旗下全资附属公司，2015年将业务从伊利分拆出来运营。目前公司已发展成为中国乳业上游市场的领导者，业务布局覆盖由育种到饲料再到原料奶生产的乳业上游全产业链。\n根据弗若斯特沙利文的资料，按2020年收入计，公司是中国规模最大的乳业上游综合产品和服务提供商。公司通过原料奶及反刍动物养殖系统化解决方案两个业务分部，向大型乳制品制造商提供优质原料奶并向牧场提供反刍动物养殖产品及服务，伊利是优然牧业最大的客户。\n财务数据方面，2018年至2020年公司总营收分别为人民币63.34亿元、76.68亿元及117.81亿元，复合年增长率为36.4%；同期录得净利润6.53亿元、8.02亿元及15.41亿元，复合年增长率为53.6%。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"09858":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1952,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":9007776016,"gmtCreate":1643025925612,"gmtModify":1676533765876,"author":{"id":"3586167248367118","authorId":"3586167248367118","name":"TanTH","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f9317bf33bd64e46c21c589d7bac5157","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3586167248367118","authorIdStr":"3586167248367118"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/XELA\">$Exela Technologies, Inc.(XELA)$</a>😭😢😅😂","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/XELA\">$Exela Technologies, Inc.(XELA)$</a>😭😢😅😂","text":"$Exela Technologies, Inc.(XELA)$😭😢😅😂","images":[{"img":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/4b7f86be346b79bc5d48bdecb56eb629","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9007776016","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":6647,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3566385558470298","authorId":"3566385558470298","name":"___ _","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/e0600059befbdbcd780f0d15118a44d6","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3566385558470298","authorIdStr":"3566385558470298"},"content":"wah now 71c u huatt [Happy]","text":"wah now 71c u huatt [Happy]","html":"wah now 71c u huatt [Happy]"}],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9008836416,"gmtCreate":1641413653550,"gmtModify":1676533611474,"author":{"id":"3586167248367118","authorId":"3586167248367118","name":"TanTH","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f9317bf33bd64e46c21c589d7bac5157","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3586167248367118","authorIdStr":"3586167248367118"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/WISH\">$ContextLogic Inc.(WISH)$</a>&nbsp;2022 discount&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/WISH\">$ContextLogic Inc.(WISH)$</a>&nbsp;2022 discount&nbsp;","text":"$ContextLogic Inc.(WISH)$ 2022 discount","images":[{"img":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/7ff38c4ce42cae111f55ea67f6ef331a","width":"1080","height":"2988"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9008836416","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":6988,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":899434735,"gmtCreate":1628209894027,"gmtModify":1703503135627,"author":{"id":"3586167248367118","authorId":"3586167248367118","name":"TanTH","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f9317bf33bd64e46c21c589d7bac5157","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3586167248367118","authorIdStr":"3586167248367118"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"&nbsp;Good","listText":"&nbsp;Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/899434735","repostId":"1186213069","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":6119,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":816425366,"gmtCreate":1630516730255,"gmtModify":1676530328311,"author":{"id":"3586167248367118","authorId":"3586167248367118","name":"TanTH","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f9317bf33bd64e46c21c589d7bac5157","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3586167248367118","authorIdStr":"3586167248367118"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Good&nbsp;","listText":"Good&nbsp;","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/816425366","repostId":"1170877267","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1170877267","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1630506252,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1170877267?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-09-01 22:24","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Popular Chinese concept stocks rallied collectively during trading, with Pinduoduo gaining nearly 9%.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1170877267","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"周三，热门中概股盘中集体拉升。截至发稿，拼多多涨近9%，爱奇艺涨超8%，哔哩哔哩、新东方、滴滴涨超7%，阿里巴巴、贝壳涨4%。","content":"<p>On Wednesday, popular Chinese concept stocks collectively rose during trading. As of press time,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">Pinduoduo</a>Up nearly 9%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IQ\">iQiyi</a>It rose more than 8%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">Bilibili</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EDU\">New Oriental</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DIDI\">Didi</a>It rose more than 7%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BEKE\">Seashell</a>It rose 4%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f78e550ae6b6f37193fc364d410cd2b7\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Popular Chinese concept stocks rallied collectively during trading, with Pinduoduo gaining nearly 9%.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPopular Chinese concept stocks rallied collectively during trading, with Pinduoduo gaining nearly 9%.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-09-01 22:24</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>On Wednesday, popular Chinese concept stocks collectively rose during trading. As of press time,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">Pinduoduo</a>Up nearly 9%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IQ\">iQiyi</a>It rose more than 8%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">Bilibili</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EDU\">New Oriental</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DIDI\">Didi</a>It rose more than 7%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BEKE\">Seashell</a>It rose 4%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f78e550ae6b6f37193fc364d410cd2b7\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e42c16a083ab273c19aaae21cdb697a0","relate_stocks":{"PDD":"拼多多","QNETCN":"纳斯达克中美互联网老虎指数"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1170877267","content_text":"周三，热门中概股盘中集体拉升。截至发稿，拼多多涨近9%，爱奇艺涨超8%，哔哩哔哩、新东方、滴滴涨超7%，阿里巴巴、贝壳涨4%。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"PDD":0.9,"QNETCN":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4805,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":805025843,"gmtCreate":1627826259682,"gmtModify":1703496322227,"author":{"id":"3586167248367118","authorId":"3586167248367118","name":"TanTH","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f9317bf33bd64e46c21c589d7bac5157","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3586167248367118","authorIdStr":"3586167248367118"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Good&nbsp;","listText":"Good&nbsp;","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/805025843","repostId":"1170169817","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1170169817","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1627819590,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1170169817?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-08-01 20:06","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"China Evergrande: Sells 11% stake in Hengten Networks for HK$3.25 billion","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1170169817","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"8月1日，恒腾网络在港交所公告称，中国恒大出售恒腾网络合计11%股权，总代价为32.5亿港元，每股3.20港元。其中，买方一为腾讯控股全资持有的附属公司，其收购恒腾网络7%股份。截至公告日期，买方一持","content":"<p>On August 1, Hengten Networks announced on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange that China Evergrande sold a total of 11% of Hengten Networks' equity for a total consideration of HK$3.25 billion, at HK$3.20 per share. Buyer 1 is a wholly-owned subsidiary of Tencent Holdings, which acquired 7% of Hengten Networks' shares. As of the date of this announcement, Buyer 1 holds approximately 16.90% of the issued share capital of Hengten Networks; China Evergrande holds approximately 37.55% of the issued share capital of Hengten Networks.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4e91ded77d46b3fdfb7cd8634a833e8e\" tg-width=\"1135\" tg-height=\"768\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>China Evergrande: Sells 11% stake in Hengten Networks for HK$3.25 billion</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nChina Evergrande: Sells 11% stake in Hengten Networks for HK$3.25 billion\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-08-01 20:06</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>On August 1, Hengten Networks announced on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange that China Evergrande sold a total of 11% of Hengten Networks' equity for a total consideration of HK$3.25 billion, at HK$3.20 per share. Buyer 1 is a wholly-owned subsidiary of Tencent Holdings, which acquired 7% of Hengten Networks' shares. As of the date of this announcement, Buyer 1 holds approximately 16.90% of the issued share capital of Hengten Networks; China Evergrande holds approximately 37.55% of the issued share capital of Hengten Networks.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4e91ded77d46b3fdfb7cd8634a833e8e\" tg-width=\"1135\" tg-height=\"768\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c6fcdaee085f89a043698b2126b966fe","relate_stocks":{"00136":"中国儒意"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1170169817","content_text":"8月1日，恒腾网络在港交所公告称，中国恒大出售恒腾网络合计11%股权，总代价为32.5亿港元，每股3.20港元。其中，买方一为腾讯控股全资持有的附属公司，其收购恒腾网络7%股份。截至公告日期，买方一持有恒腾网络已发行股本之约16.90%；而中国恒大持有恒腾网络已发行股本之约37.55%。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"03333":0.9,"00136":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":6544,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":805025616,"gmtCreate":1627826287135,"gmtModify":1703496322391,"author":{"id":"3586167248367118","authorId":"3586167248367118","name":"TanTH","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f9317bf33bd64e46c21c589d7bac5157","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3586167248367118","authorIdStr":"3586167248367118"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/805025616","repostId":"2156169561","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":6435,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9032389283,"gmtCreate":1647290887017,"gmtModify":1676534211501,"author":{"id":"3586167248367118","authorId":"3586167248367118","name":"TanTH","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f9317bf33bd64e46c21c589d7bac5157","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3586167248367118","authorIdStr":"3586167248367118"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Good&nbsp;","listText":"Good&nbsp;","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9032389283","repostId":"1178901868","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1178901868","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"港股挖掘机将每天为您推送最具价值的港股、美股、A股投资资讯！第一时间把握全球政策动向，先人一步了解主流资金流向，监测主力行踪，解读公司公告，追踪活跃个股，让您畅享投资财富盛宴!","home_visible":1,"media_name":"智通财经APP","id":"12","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/361f7f1ca0d64e919035653d64c723ab"},"pubTimestamp":1647270835,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1178901868?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-03-14 23:13","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"The market can turn against each other at will, with US Treasury prices fluctuating wildly between a rebound and a sharp drop.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1178901868","media":"智通财经APP","summary":"全球最大债券市场——美国国债市场近期的剧烈波动性，令试图同时押注紧缩性全球货币政策和俄乌冲突引发大宗商品价格冲击进而刺激避险需求的交易员面临巨大挑战，而后者(大宗商品价格冲击)正引发市场对类似“上世纪","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>The recent volatility in the Treasury Bond market, the world's largest bond market, poses a significant challenge to traders attempting to simultaneously bet on tightening global monetary policy and the Russia-Ukraine conflict triggering commodity price shocks, thereby stimulating safe-haven demand.<b>The latter (commodity price shocks) is raising market concerns about something similar to \"1970s-style stagflation\".</b></p><p>Since Russia's invasion of Ukraine, U.S. Treasury Bond prices have risen sharply, yields have been declining, and safe-haven investors have been buying one of the safest assets, which is widely considered one of the safest assets. At the same time, bond investors have been rushing to buy U.S. Treasuries to avoid missing buying opportunities when prices rise in the future.</p><p>Zhitong Finance APP observed that the situation seemed to have reversed last week. As concerns that inflation had not yet peaked once again became the focus of the bond market, safe-haven buying of US Treasury bonds gradually withdrew, and the yield on two-year US Treasury bonds surged to its highest point in two years. With the Consumer Price Index (CPI) surging and likely not yet peaking, the Federal Reserve is highly likely to begin its rate hike cycle on Wednesday, Eastern Time.<b>Today, 10-year US Treasury bonds were once again heavily sold off, with yields once reaching 2.10%, the highest level since July 2019.</b>On March 9th, the intraday yield on the 10-year US Treasury bond fell as low as 1.837% before closing at a high of 1.958%. On March 10th, the intraday yield fell as low as 1.913% before closing at a high of 2.021%. A similar scenario unfolded almost every day last week. Should we continue betting? Traders were \"incredibly conflicted\".</p><p>The previous sharp fluctuations presented traders with a dilemma: after selling US Treasury bonds to take profits and flee, although everyone currently has a large amount of money on hand, those who bet incorrectly will face heavy consequences—in such a rapidly changing investment environment, there seems to be sufficient reason to make bullish or bearish predictions. This back-and-forth tug-of-war has brought the widely watched U.S. Treasury Bond implied price volatility indicator to its highest level since the early collapse of the COVID-19 pandemic in March 2020 or the 2008 financial crisis.</p><p>Faced with this situation, some hedge funds have been proceeding cautiously to avoid suffering losses due to erroneous bets, deleveraging, and liquidation. Long-term investors have increased their bets on long-term US Treasury bonds (maturities of 10 years or more), believing that long-term US Treasury bonds will perform better as the US economic growth outlook bleaks.</p><p>Meanwhile, investors with smaller assets have been pouring their cash into actively managed ETFs focused on short-term bonds to weather the economic slowdown, a trend that has been widespread since the beginning of the year, according to data.</p><p>John Brady, managing director of Chicago-based futures brokerage firm RJ O'Brien, said:<b>There is no doubt that this is a market for short-term traders.</b>He pointed out that with interest rates near zero over the past two years, long-term investors have failed to seize the opportunities presented by interest rate differentials.</p><p><b>Volatility in the US Treasury Bond market has increased dramatically.</b></p><p>This volatility reflects broader market volatility, as investors are assessing the impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict on the global economy, causing sharp fluctuations in the stock, bond, and foreign exchange markets simultaneously. This creates opportunities for quick-thinking traders.<b>However, this also brings the risk of \"taking the wrong side\" in the changing trend.</b></p><p>Citigroup strategist William O'Donnell said that since the escalation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the movement of the U.S. Treasury Bond market has been the biggest value-at-risk (VAR) shock for \"hedge funds and hot money accounts\" since March 2020. He stated that Citigroup's metrics show that trading volume in the U.S. Treasury Bond market has declined from a high level. \"At the time, there was a view that this was a good profit opportunity, but now there is a sentiment that we should be down-to-earth and reduce trading volume.\"</p><p>It is worth noting that last week, the U.S. banking industry pointed out that some usually popular transactions have recently begun to shrink significantly amid expectations that the Federal Reserve will rate hike multiple times this year. Bank of America stated that the decline in trading volume indicates that the market faces uncertainty in the short term, which is clearly reflected in the potential surge in volatility, and pointed out that implied volatility across the entire yield curve has increased significantly.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/175c1f979b85ff0a47e5f77cc1b012d9\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"608\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Bank of America noted that on Tuesday, the ICE BofA MOVE Index, which tracks traders' expectations of volatility in the U.S. bond market, hit 140.03 points, its highest level since March 2020.</p><p>Treasury Bond in the United States experienced its worst week in the past 10 years, losing the equivalent of the entire interest payment of the past year in five days. The U.S. Treasury Bond Index has fallen 3.8% this year, exceeding any full-year decline recorded by Bloomberg data since 1973.</p><p><b>Economic recession expectations</b></p><p>Since last month, soaring commodity prices have intensified market expectations of a slowdown in economic growth, with concerns that economic growth will slow as interest rates rise. Some traders even believe that \"signs of stagflation\" are already very evident.<b>This further stimulated the already strong so-called \"flattening trading demand\".</b>This means betting that as the economic growth outlook dims, short-term yields will rise more sharply than long-term yields. On March 7, the spread between the two-year and 10-year U.S. Treasury yields narrowed to just 19 basis points, the smallest spread since the COVID-19 pandemic brought the U.S. economy to a standstill in March 2020.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3916710126c4e65b0d5170ae90640dfa\" tg-width=\"784\" tg-height=\"418\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>However, as traders try to determine whether they have the courage to bet on a flattening trend, long-term investors are focusing on protecting their assets from the risks of a growing downtrend. Citigroup strategist O'Donnell said that some pension funds and insurance companies are focusing their capital flows on options to buy 10-30 year U.S. Treasury bonds. If the U.S. economy slows significantly next year and yields fall from current levels, these option holders will profit.</p><p>Western Asset fund manager Molly Schwartz said the company has begun shifting one of its main funds more towards longer-term bonds. As of the end of last year, the company had nearly $500 billion in assets under management. Schwartz said, \"We are moving some of our front-end exposure above the yield curve.\"</p><p>Some analysts believe that rising yields offer some benefits to individual investors, allowing them to reinvest interest and principal in higher-yielding bonds.</p><p><b>Actively managed bond funds are popular with investors.</b></p><p>Todd Rosenbluth, head of ETF and mutual fund Research at CFRA Research, said that this volatility also appears to have increased investor interest in some ETFs.<b>These funds seek to actively manage market risk and focus on short-term US Treasury bonds.</b>He mentioned the capital inflows into related products of large financial institutions such as Pacific Investment Management and JPMorgan Chase this year.</p><p>Rosenbluth stated, \"Historically, investors have been willing to believe that actively managed bond fund managers can weather market uncertainty by seeking lower-risk additional returns.\" \"Understandably, this year's capital flows provide some protection against expectations of rising interest rates compared to last year, when fixed-income ETFs faced higher risk.\"</p><p>For investors who have maintained a defensive stance and low levels of interest rate risk exposure, rising yields may offer an opportunity to return to the market.</p><p>Jack Ablin, Chief Investment Officer of Cresset Capital, said: “We have a short holding period and are trying to return to a neutral level, so in our view, a 2% level for any asset over 10 years is a reasonable value for us.”</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The market can turn against each other at will, with US Treasury prices fluctuating wildly between a rebound and a sharp drop.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe market can turn against each other at will, with US Treasury prices fluctuating wildly between a rebound and a sharp drop.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/12\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/361f7f1ca0d64e919035653d64c723ab);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">智通财经APP </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-03-14 23:13</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>The recent volatility in the Treasury Bond market, the world's largest bond market, poses a significant challenge to traders attempting to simultaneously bet on tightening global monetary policy and the Russia-Ukraine conflict triggering commodity price shocks, thereby stimulating safe-haven demand.<b>The latter (commodity price shocks) is raising market concerns about something similar to \"1970s-style stagflation\".</b></p><p>Since Russia's invasion of Ukraine, U.S. Treasury Bond prices have risen sharply, yields have been declining, and safe-haven investors have been buying one of the safest assets, which is widely considered one of the safest assets. At the same time, bond investors have been rushing to buy U.S. Treasuries to avoid missing buying opportunities when prices rise in the future.</p><p>Zhitong Finance APP observed that the situation seemed to have reversed last week. As concerns that inflation had not yet peaked once again became the focus of the bond market, safe-haven buying of US Treasury bonds gradually withdrew, and the yield on two-year US Treasury bonds surged to its highest point in two years. With the Consumer Price Index (CPI) surging and likely not yet peaking, the Federal Reserve is highly likely to begin its rate hike cycle on Wednesday, Eastern Time.<b>Today, 10-year US Treasury bonds were once again heavily sold off, with yields once reaching 2.10%, the highest level since July 2019.</b>On March 9th, the intraday yield on the 10-year US Treasury bond fell as low as 1.837% before closing at a high of 1.958%. On March 10th, the intraday yield fell as low as 1.913% before closing at a high of 2.021%. A similar scenario unfolded almost every day last week. Should we continue betting? Traders were \"incredibly conflicted\".</p><p>The previous sharp fluctuations presented traders with a dilemma: after selling US Treasury bonds to take profits and flee, although everyone currently has a large amount of money on hand, those who bet incorrectly will face heavy consequences—in such a rapidly changing investment environment, there seems to be sufficient reason to make bullish or bearish predictions. This back-and-forth tug-of-war has brought the widely watched U.S. Treasury Bond implied price volatility indicator to its highest level since the early collapse of the COVID-19 pandemic in March 2020 or the 2008 financial crisis.</p><p>Faced with this situation, some hedge funds have been proceeding cautiously to avoid suffering losses due to erroneous bets, deleveraging, and liquidation. Long-term investors have increased their bets on long-term US Treasury bonds (maturities of 10 years or more), believing that long-term US Treasury bonds will perform better as the US economic growth outlook bleaks.</p><p>Meanwhile, investors with smaller assets have been pouring their cash into actively managed ETFs focused on short-term bonds to weather the economic slowdown, a trend that has been widespread since the beginning of the year, according to data.</p><p>John Brady, managing director of Chicago-based futures brokerage firm RJ O'Brien, said:<b>There is no doubt that this is a market for short-term traders.</b>He pointed out that with interest rates near zero over the past two years, long-term investors have failed to seize the opportunities presented by interest rate differentials.</p><p><b>Volatility in the US Treasury Bond market has increased dramatically.</b></p><p>This volatility reflects broader market volatility, as investors are assessing the impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict on the global economy, causing sharp fluctuations in the stock, bond, and foreign exchange markets simultaneously. This creates opportunities for quick-thinking traders.<b>However, this also brings the risk of \"taking the wrong side\" in the changing trend.</b></p><p>Citigroup strategist William O'Donnell said that since the escalation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the movement of the U.S. Treasury Bond market has been the biggest value-at-risk (VAR) shock for \"hedge funds and hot money accounts\" since March 2020. He stated that Citigroup's metrics show that trading volume in the U.S. Treasury Bond market has declined from a high level. \"At the time, there was a view that this was a good profit opportunity, but now there is a sentiment that we should be down-to-earth and reduce trading volume.\"</p><p>It is worth noting that last week, the U.S. banking industry pointed out that some usually popular transactions have recently begun to shrink significantly amid expectations that the Federal Reserve will rate hike multiple times this year. Bank of America stated that the decline in trading volume indicates that the market faces uncertainty in the short term, which is clearly reflected in the potential surge in volatility, and pointed out that implied volatility across the entire yield curve has increased significantly.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/175c1f979b85ff0a47e5f77cc1b012d9\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"608\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Bank of America noted that on Tuesday, the ICE BofA MOVE Index, which tracks traders' expectations of volatility in the U.S. bond market, hit 140.03 points, its highest level since March 2020.</p><p>Treasury Bond in the United States experienced its worst week in the past 10 years, losing the equivalent of the entire interest payment of the past year in five days. The U.S. Treasury Bond Index has fallen 3.8% this year, exceeding any full-year decline recorded by Bloomberg data since 1973.</p><p><b>Economic recession expectations</b></p><p>Since last month, soaring commodity prices have intensified market expectations of a slowdown in economic growth, with concerns that economic growth will slow as interest rates rise. Some traders even believe that \"signs of stagflation\" are already very evident.<b>This further stimulated the already strong so-called \"flattening trading demand\".</b>This means betting that as the economic growth outlook dims, short-term yields will rise more sharply than long-term yields. On March 7, the spread between the two-year and 10-year U.S. Treasury yields narrowed to just 19 basis points, the smallest spread since the COVID-19 pandemic brought the U.S. economy to a standstill in March 2020.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3916710126c4e65b0d5170ae90640dfa\" tg-width=\"784\" tg-height=\"418\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>However, as traders try to determine whether they have the courage to bet on a flattening trend, long-term investors are focusing on protecting their assets from the risks of a growing downtrend. Citigroup strategist O'Donnell said that some pension funds and insurance companies are focusing their capital flows on options to buy 10-30 year U.S. Treasury bonds. If the U.S. economy slows significantly next year and yields fall from current levels, these option holders will profit.</p><p>Western Asset fund manager Molly Schwartz said the company has begun shifting one of its main funds more towards longer-term bonds. As of the end of last year, the company had nearly $500 billion in assets under management. Schwartz said, \"We are moving some of our front-end exposure above the yield curve.\"</p><p>Some analysts believe that rising yields offer some benefits to individual investors, allowing them to reinvest interest and principal in higher-yielding bonds.</p><p><b>Actively managed bond funds are popular with investors.</b></p><p>Todd Rosenbluth, head of ETF and mutual fund Research at CFRA Research, said that this volatility also appears to have increased investor interest in some ETFs.<b>These funds seek to actively manage market risk and focus on short-term US Treasury bonds.</b>He mentioned the capital inflows into related products of large financial institutions such as Pacific Investment Management and JPMorgan Chase this year.</p><p>Rosenbluth stated, \"Historically, investors have been willing to believe that actively managed bond fund managers can weather market uncertainty by seeking lower-risk additional returns.\" \"Understandably, this year's capital flows provide some protection against expectations of rising interest rates compared to last year, when fixed-income ETFs faced higher risk.\"</p><p>For investors who have maintained a defensive stance and low levels of interest rate risk exposure, rising yields may offer an opportunity to return to the market.</p><p>Jack Ablin, Chief Investment Officer of Cresset Capital, said: “We have a short holding period and are trying to return to a neutral level, so in our view, a 2% level for any asset over 10 years is a reasonable value for us.”</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fd680cd945fd32917c8ece66ec685e5f","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1178901868","content_text":"全球最大债券市场——美国国债市场近期的剧烈波动性，令试图同时押注紧缩性全球货币政策和俄乌冲突引发大宗商品价格冲击进而刺激避险需求的交易员面临巨大挑战，而后者(大宗商品价格冲击)正引发市场对类似“上世纪70年代式滞胀”的担忧。自俄罗斯出兵乌克兰之后，美国国债价格大幅上涨，收益率不断下滑，避险投资者纷纷买入这一普遍认为最安全的资产之一，同时引发债券投资者争相购买美债，以避免未来价格攀升时错过买点。智通财经APP观察到，在上周，情形似乎出现了反转，随着对通胀率仍未见顶担忧再度成为债市焦点，美债避险买盘逐渐退场，两年期美债收益率飙升至两年来最高点。随着消费者价格指数(CPI)大幅飙升且可能仍未见顶，显示美联储极大概率于美东时间周三开始加息周期。而在今天，10年期美债再次被大幅抛售，收益率一度达到2.10%，创2019年7月以来的最高水平。在3月9日，10年期美债日内收益率一度低至1.837%，最后以1.958%高点收盘，在3月10日日内收益率一度低至1.913%，最后以2.021%高点收盘，在上周几乎每天都在上演类似的剧情，究竟该不该继续押注?交易员们“纠结无比”。此前剧烈的波动给交易员们带来了一个难题:抛售美债实现获利出逃之后，尽管目前大家手头上拥有大量资金，但押注错误的人将面临惨重代价——在变化如此迅速的投资环境之中，做出看涨或看跌预判似乎都有足够的理由。这种来回拉扯使得广受关注的美国国债隐含价格波动性指标达到了自2020年3月新冠疫情初期崩盘，或2008年金融危机之后的最高水平。面对这种情况，一些对冲基金一直在谨慎行事，以避免因错误的押注、去杠杆化和平仓而蒙受亏损。长线投资者加大了对长端美债(10年期以上)的押注，认为随着美国经济增长前景黯淡，长端美债将会有更好的表现。与此同时，资产规模较小的投资者一直在向一些专注于短端债券的主动管理型ETF基金投入手头上的现金，以过渡经济增长放缓时期，有数据显示这一趋势自年初以来一直很普遍。芝加哥期货经纪公司RJ O’Brien董事总经理John Brady表示：“毫无疑问，这是一个属于短期交易者的市场。”他指出，在过去两年接近零利率的情况下，长期投资者没有抓住利差带来的机会。美国国债市场波动性剧增这一波动性反映了更广泛的市场波动，因为此时投资者正评估俄乌冲突对全球经济带来的影响，导致股市、债市和外汇市场同时出现剧烈波动。这为思维敏捷的交易员带来了机会，但也带来了在趋势转变中“站错边”的风险。花旗集团策略师William O’Donnell表示，自俄乌冲突升级以来，美国国债市场的走势对“对冲基金和热钱账户”来说是2020年3月以来最大的风险价值(VAR)冲击。他表示，花旗的衡量指标显示，美国国债市场的成交量已从较高水平下降，“当时有一种观点认为，这是一个不错的获利机会，而现在有一种情绪，认为我们应该脚踏实地，减少交易规模。”值得注意的是，在上周，美国银行业曾指出，在美联储今年将多次加息的预期下，一些往常较热门的交易近期开始大幅缩减。美银表示，交易量下滑代表着市场在短期内面临不确定性，而这明显体现在潜在的波动性剧增上，并指出整条收益率曲线上的隐含波动率均大幅上升。美银指出，在上周二，追踪交易员对美国债券市场波动预期的ICE美国银行移动指数(BofA MOVE Index)触及140.03点，为2020年3月以来的最高水平。美国国债经历了过去10年中最糟糕的一周，在5天内损失的价值相当于过去一年的全部利息支付。美国国债指数今年下跌了3.8%，超过了自1973年以来Bloomberg data有记录的任何全年跌幅。经济衰退预期自上个月以来，大宗商品价格飙升使得市场对于经济增长放缓的预期越来越强烈，市场担心在利率上升之际经济增长速度将放缓，甚至有交易员认为“滞胀苗头”已非常明显。这进一步刺激了本已强劲的所谓“趋平交易需求”，即押注随着经济增长前景黯淡，短端收益率将比长端收益率升幅更加剧烈。在3月7日，两年期和10年期美债收益率的差值缩小至仅19个基点，这是自2020年3月新冠疫情初期导致美国经济面临停滞以来的最小差值。不过，在交易员们试图判断自己是否有胆量押注趋平之际，长线投资者正专注于保护其资产免受不断增长的下行趋势风险的冲击。花旗集团策略师O’Donnell表示，部分养老金和保险公司的资金流向集中于买入10- 30年期美债的期权，如果明年美国经济大幅放缓，收益率从当前水平回落，这些期权持有者将会获利。Western Asset基金经理Molly Schwartz表示，该公司已开始将旗下一只主要基金更多地转向较长端债券。截至去年年底，该公司管理着近5,000亿美元资产，Schwartz表示:“我们正在将一些前端敞口移至收益率曲线上方。”也有分析观点认为，收益率抬升为个人投资者提供了一些好处，他们可以将利息和本金再投资于收益率更高的债券。主动管理型债基受投资者热捧CFRA Research的ETF和共同基金研究主管Todd Rosenbluth表示，这种波动似乎也增加了投资者们对一些ETF基金的兴趣，这些基金寻求主动管理市场风险，并专注于短端美债，他提到了太平洋投资管理公司和摩根大通等大型金融机构旗下相关产品今年以来的资金流入量。Rosenbluth表示:“从历史数据来看，投资者一直愿意相信主动管理型债基的基金经理能够通过寻找风险较低的额外收益来应对市场的不确定性。”“可以理解的是，与去年相比，今年的资金流向为利率抬升这一预期提供了一些保护空间，而当时去年的固定收益型ETF面临的风险较高。”对于那些一直保持防御性态势并保持较低水平的利率风险敞口投资者来说，收益率的上升可能提供了一个重返市场的机会。Cresset Capital首席投资官Jack Ablin表示:“我们仓位持有时间较短，并试图回到中性水平，因此在我们看来10年期任何资产的2%水平对我们来说都是合理价值。”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5139,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":818497606,"gmtCreate":1630423932105,"gmtModify":1676530300912,"author":{"id":"3586167248367118","authorId":"3586167248367118","name":"TanTH","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f9317bf33bd64e46c21c589d7bac5157","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3586167248367118","authorIdStr":"3586167248367118"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Good&nbsp;","listText":"Good&nbsp;","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/818497606","repostId":"1169845430","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1169845430","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1630412757,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1169845430?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-08-31 20:25","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"XPeng Automotive: Total revenue in the first half of the year was 6.712 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 569.3%.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1169845430","media":"新浪科技","summary":"上半年净亏损为人民币19.81亿元，去年同期亏损20.76亿元。","content":"<p>Beijing time, August 31st, evening news<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">XPeng Automotive</a>The company announced today that its total revenue for the first half of the year was RMB 6.712 billion, up 569.3% year-on-year; The company reported a net loss of RMB 1.981 billion in the first half of the year, compared to a loss of RMB 2.076 billion in the same period last year.</p><p><b>Summary of results for the first half of 2002:</b></p><p>Vehicle deliveries for the six months ended 30 June 2021 were 30,738 vehicles, representing an increase of 459% from 5,499 vehicles for the six months ended 30 June 2020.</p><p>P7 deliveries for the six months ended 30 June 2021 were 19,496 units. XPeng began mass deliveries of the P7 at the end of June 2020.</p><p>Of the total P7 delivered during the six months ended June 30, 2021, 97% supported XPILOT 2.5 or XPILOT 3.0.</p><p>As of June 30, 2021, XPeng Motors' physical sales and service network included 200 stores and 64 service centers, covering 74 cities.</p><p>As of June 30, 2021, XPeng Automotive brand Supercharger stations had expanded to 231, covering 65 cities.</p><p>For the six months ended June 30, 2021, total revenue was RMB6,712.2 million (US$1,039.6 million), representing an increase of 569.3% from RMB1,002.9 million for the six months ended June 30, 2020.</p><p>For the six months ended June 30, 2021, revenue from automobile sales was RMB6,394.7 million (US$990.4 million), representing an increase of 600.2% from RMB913.3 million for the six months ended June 30, 2020.</p><p>Gross profit margin was 11.6% for the six months ended 30 June 2021 as compared to negative 3.6% for the six months ended 30 June 2020.</p><p>The gross profit margin of automobiles, being the percentage of gross profit from automobile sales to revenue from automobile sales, was 10.6% for the six months ended 30 June 2021, as compared to negative 5.5% for the six months ended 30 June 2020.</p><p>Net loss for the six months ended June 30, 2021 was RMB1,981.1 million (US$306.8 million), compared to RMB795.8 million for the six months ended June 30, 2020. Excluding share-based compensation expenses and changes in the fair value of derivative liabilities related to preferred shares redemption rights, the net loss under non-GAAP was RMB1792.7 million (US$277.7 million) for the six months ended June 30, 2021, compared to RMB1414.2 million for the six months ended June 30, 2020.</p><p>Net loss attributable to ordinary shareholders of XPeng Automotive was RMB1,981.1 million (US$306.8 million) for the six months ended June 30, 2021, as compared to RMB2,076.5 million for the six months ended June 30, 2020. Excluding share-based compensation expenses, changes in the fair value of derivative liabilities related to preferred shares redemption rights, and increases in the redemption value of preferred shares, the net loss attributable to ordinary shareholders of XPeng Automotive under non-GAAP was RMB1,792.7 million (US$277.7 million) for the six months ended June 30, 2021, compared to RMB1,414.2 million for the six months ended June 30, 2020.</p><p>Basic and diluted net loss per American Depositary Share for the six months ended June 30, 2021 was RMB2.49 (US$0.39), compared to basic and diluted net loss per ordinary share of RMB1.25 (US$0.19).</p><p>Both non-GAAP basic and diluted net loss per American Depositary Share was RMB2.26 (US$0.35) for the six months ended June 30, 2021, compared to non-GAAP basic and diluted net loss per ordinary share of RMB1.13 (US$0.17). Each American Depositary Share represents two Class A ordinary shares.</p><p>As of June 30, 2021, cash and cash equivalents, restricted cash, short-term deposits, short-term investments and long-term deposits were RMB32,871.2 million (US$5,091.1 million).</p><p><b>XPeng vehicle deliveries in July:</b></p><p>In July 2021, XPeng Motor<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/5RE.SI\">smart</a>Total deliveries of electric vehicles reached 8,040 units, representing a year-on-year increase of 228%. July deliveries included 6,054 P7 (XPeng Motors' intelligent sports sedan) and 1,986 G3 (XPeng Motors' compact intelligent SUV). As of July 31, 2021, year-to-date deliveries reached 38,778 vehicles, representing a year-on-year increase of 388%.</p>","source":"sina_tech","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>XPeng Automotive: Total revenue in the first half of the year was 6.712 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 569.3%.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nXPeng Automotive: Total revenue in the first half of the year was 6.712 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 569.3%.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">新浪科技</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-31 20:25</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Beijing time, August 31st, evening news<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">XPeng Automotive</a>The company announced today that its total revenue for the first half of the year was RMB 6.712 billion, up 569.3% year-on-year; The company reported a net loss of RMB 1.981 billion in the first half of the year, compared to a loss of RMB 2.076 billion in the same period last year.</p><p><b>Summary of results for the first half of 2002:</b></p><p>Vehicle deliveries for the six months ended 30 June 2021 were 30,738 vehicles, representing an increase of 459% from 5,499 vehicles for the six months ended 30 June 2020.</p><p>P7 deliveries for the six months ended 30 June 2021 were 19,496 units. XPeng began mass deliveries of the P7 at the end of June 2020.</p><p>Of the total P7 delivered during the six months ended June 30, 2021, 97% supported XPILOT 2.5 or XPILOT 3.0.</p><p>As of June 30, 2021, XPeng Motors' physical sales and service network included 200 stores and 64 service centers, covering 74 cities.</p><p>As of June 30, 2021, XPeng Automotive brand Supercharger stations had expanded to 231, covering 65 cities.</p><p>For the six months ended June 30, 2021, total revenue was RMB6,712.2 million (US$1,039.6 million), representing an increase of 569.3% from RMB1,002.9 million for the six months ended June 30, 2020.</p><p>For the six months ended June 30, 2021, revenue from automobile sales was RMB6,394.7 million (US$990.4 million), representing an increase of 600.2% from RMB913.3 million for the six months ended June 30, 2020.</p><p>Gross profit margin was 11.6% for the six months ended 30 June 2021 as compared to negative 3.6% for the six months ended 30 June 2020.</p><p>The gross profit margin of automobiles, being the percentage of gross profit from automobile sales to revenue from automobile sales, was 10.6% for the six months ended 30 June 2021, as compared to negative 5.5% for the six months ended 30 June 2020.</p><p>Net loss for the six months ended June 30, 2021 was RMB1,981.1 million (US$306.8 million), compared to RMB795.8 million for the six months ended June 30, 2020. Excluding share-based compensation expenses and changes in the fair value of derivative liabilities related to preferred shares redemption rights, the net loss under non-GAAP was RMB1792.7 million (US$277.7 million) for the six months ended June 30, 2021, compared to RMB1414.2 million for the six months ended June 30, 2020.</p><p>Net loss attributable to ordinary shareholders of XPeng Automotive was RMB1,981.1 million (US$306.8 million) for the six months ended June 30, 2021, as compared to RMB2,076.5 million for the six months ended June 30, 2020. Excluding share-based compensation expenses, changes in the fair value of derivative liabilities related to preferred shares redemption rights, and increases in the redemption value of preferred shares, the net loss attributable to ordinary shareholders of XPeng Automotive under non-GAAP was RMB1,792.7 million (US$277.7 million) for the six months ended June 30, 2021, compared to RMB1,414.2 million for the six months ended June 30, 2020.</p><p>Basic and diluted net loss per American Depositary Share for the six months ended June 30, 2021 was RMB2.49 (US$0.39), compared to basic and diluted net loss per ordinary share of RMB1.25 (US$0.19).</p><p>Both non-GAAP basic and diluted net loss per American Depositary Share was RMB2.26 (US$0.35) for the six months ended June 30, 2021, compared to non-GAAP basic and diluted net loss per ordinary share of RMB1.13 (US$0.17). Each American Depositary Share represents two Class A ordinary shares.</p><p>As of June 30, 2021, cash and cash equivalents, restricted cash, short-term deposits, short-term investments and long-term deposits were RMB32,871.2 million (US$5,091.1 million).</p><p><b>XPeng vehicle deliveries in July:</b></p><p>In July 2021, XPeng Motor<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/5RE.SI\">smart</a>Total deliveries of electric vehicles reached 8,040 units, representing a year-on-year increase of 228%. July deliveries included 6,054 P7 (XPeng Motors' intelligent sports sedan) and 1,986 G3 (XPeng Motors' compact intelligent SUV). As of July 31, 2021, year-to-date deliveries reached 38,778 vehicles, representing a year-on-year increase of 388%.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://finance.sina.com.cn/tech/2021-08-31/doc-iktzqtyt3280321.shtml\">新浪科技</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/401f7adefb705cb1d679bb39b97c03e1","relate_stocks":{"XPEV":"小鹏集团"},"source_url":"https://finance.sina.com.cn/tech/2021-08-31/doc-iktzqtyt3280321.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1169845430","content_text":"北京时间8月31日晚间消息，小鹏汽车今日发布公告称，该公司上半年总收入为人民币67.12亿元，同比上升569.3%；上半年净亏损为人民币19.81亿元，去年同期亏损20.76亿元。\n202年上半年业绩摘要：\n截至2021年6月30日止六个月汽车交付量为30,738辆，较2020年6月30日止六个月的5,499辆上升459%。\n截至2021年6月30日止六个月P7交付量为19,496辆。小鹏汽车于2020年6月底开始批量交付P7。\n在截至2021年6月30日止六个月已交付的P7总量中，97%可支持XPILOT 2.5或XPILOT3.0。\n截至2021年6月30日，小鹏汽车的实体销售和服务网络包括200间门店和64个服务中心，覆盖74个城市。\n截至2021年6月30日，小鹏汽车品牌超级充电站扩展至231座，覆盖65个城市。\n截至2021年6月30日止六个月，总收入为人民币67.122亿元（10.396亿美元），较截至2020年6月30日止六个月的人民币10.029亿元上升569.3%。\n截至2021年6月30日止六个月，汽车销售收入 为人民币63.947亿 元（9.904亿美元），较截至2020年6月30日止六个月的人民币9.133亿元上升600.2%。\n截至2021年6月30日止六个月毛利率为11.6%，相较而言，截至2020年6月30日止六个月为负3.6%。\n截至2021年6月30日止六个月汽车毛利率（即汽车销售毛利润占汽车销售收入的百分比）为10.6%，相较而言，截至2020年6月30日止六个月为负5.5%。\n截至2021年6月30日止六个月净亏损为人民币19.811亿元（3.068亿美元），相较而言，截至2020年6月30日止六个月为人民币7.958亿元。除以股份为基础的薪酬开支和与优先股赎回权相关的衍生负债公允价值变动外，截至2021年6月30日止六个月非公认会计原则净亏损为人民币1,7.927亿元（2.777亿美元），相较而言，截至2020年6月30日止六个月为人民币1,4.142亿元。\n截至2021年6月30日止六个月小鹏汽车普通股东应占净亏损为人民币19.811亿元（306.8百万美元），相较而言，截至2020年6月30日止六个月为人民币20.765亿元。除以股份为基础的薪酬开支、与优先股赎回权相关的衍生负债公允价值变动以及优先股赎回价值的增加外，截至2021年6月30日止六个月非公认会计原则小鹏汽车普通股东应占净亏损为人民币17.927亿元（2.777亿美元），相较而言，截至2020年6月30日止六个月为人民币14.142亿元。\n截至2021年6月30日止六个月每股美国存托股基本及摊薄净亏损均为人民币2.49元（0.39美元），而每股普通股基本及摊薄净亏损均为人民币1.25元（0.19美元）。\n截至2021年6月30日止六个月非公认会计原则每股美国存托股基本及摊薄净亏损均为人民币2.26元（0.35美元），而非公认会计原则每股普通股基本及摊薄净亏损均为人民币1.13元（0.17美元）。每一股美国存托股代表两股A类普通股。\n截至2021年6月30日，现金及现金等价物、受限制现金、短期存款、短期投资及长期存款为人民币328.712亿元（50.911亿美元）。\n小鹏汽车7月的交付量：\n2021年7月，小鹏汽车智能电动汽车的总交付量达8,040辆，按年增长228%。 7月的交付中包括6,054辆P7（小鹏汽车的智能运动型轿车）和1,986辆G3（小鹏汽车的紧凑型智能SUV）。截至2021年7月31日，年初至今的交付量达38,778辆，按年增长388%。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"XPEV":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":6126,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":818028737,"gmtCreate":1630367097929,"gmtModify":1676530280436,"author":{"id":"3586167248367118","authorId":"3586167248367118","name":"TanTH","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f9317bf33bd64e46c21c589d7bac5157","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3586167248367118","authorIdStr":"3586167248367118"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Good&nbsp;","listText":"Good&nbsp;","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/818028737","repostId":"1183198336","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1183198336","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1630309929,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1183198336?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-08-30 15:52","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"91-year-old Warren Buffett: Still navigating cycles, value investing will not fall from its pedestal.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1183198336","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"这个名字永远带着浓厚的传奇色彩。","content":"<p>Warren Buffett was born on August 30, 1930, in Omaha, Nebraska, USA. Today, he turns 91 years old.</p><p>Buffett was once asked questions about life. Buffett replied:</p><p>“Physically, I have no value left, only a little residual value. It’s really useless, but it doesn’t stop me from working, it doesn’t stop me from being happy, it doesn’t stop me from thinking. I don’t feel that my enjoyment and passion for life have diminished in any way. In fact, in a sense, the game I’m playing is becoming more and more interesting. It’s a competitive game, a big game, and I enjoy it very much.”</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/49e396b50629cd1c414da9f896d60017\" tg-width=\"924\" tg-height=\"852\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>This name will always be steeped in legend, from American Express to The Washington Post, from the classic legend of Coca-Cola to the 2008 financial crisis that saved Goldman Sachs from disaster. At the same time, its \"value investing\" philosophy has gradually become the creed of value investors. Moreover, Berkshire Hathaway, managed by Buffett, also occupies the top of the hierarchy due to its sky-high price of hundreds of thousands of dollars per share (Class A).</p><p>As a child, Buffett showed a sensitivity to numbers. In 1950, he entered Columbia University's Business School and became a student of Benjamin Graham, known as the \"father of value investors\". Buffett thrived under Graham.</p><p>In 1962, Buffett bought the first Berkshire Hathaway stock. In early 1965, Buffett gained control of Berkshire Hathaway. After that, Berkshire's business nature changed, and it was no longer a simple spinning company, but an investment entity. Buffett used it as a business platform, continuously acquiring other profitable companies and equity, creating an investment myth.</p><p>From 1965 to 2018, Berkshire's book value grew at a compound annual growth rate of 18.7%, significantly exceeding the S&P 500's 9.7%. From 1964 to 2018, Berkshire's overall growth rate was 1,091,899% (or more than 10,918 times), while the S&P 500 index was 15,019%. This is only an increase in book value; Berkshire's intrinsic value has increased far more than its book value.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b81fe99f598432b496647628a93daf9\" tg-width=\"873\" tg-height=\"721\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Data Source Warren Buffett's Letters to Berkshire Shareholders, 2018</p><p>If you had bought $10,000 worth of Berkshire Hathaway stock in 1965, after 53 years of Buffett's masterful management, its market value would have become approximately $247 million today—it's worth mentioning that this is after-tax income!</p><p><b>Classic case: How Buffett did it</b></p><p>Warren Buffett is a representative of concentrated equity investment, and his investment cases are few and far between. The fruitful results of these \"battles,\" relying on the power of compound interest, propelled Berkshire Hathaway into the top ten of U.S. publicly traded companies by market capitalization.</p><p><b>Seesee Candy</b></p><p>In 1972, Buffett acquired See's Candies for $25 million under the name of Blue Chip Printing Company (which was soon incorporated into Berkshire Hathaway).</p><p>Seesee Candy's average annual sales growth was slow, while the increase in unit price led to a surge in net profit.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d41b1c14b1f3e89a4dd75caf7702fbfc\" tg-width=\"753\" tg-height=\"466\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In a letter to shareholders in March 1984, Buffett stated that See's candy is worth much more than its book value. It is a branded enterprise whose products can be sold at a price higher than the cost of production, and will continue to have this pricing power in the future.</p><p>When Buffett looked back on the acquisition of See's Candy, he saw it as a fantastic and outstanding business. From 1972 to 2007, it contributed $1.35 billion in pre-tax profits to Berkshire Hathaway, of which only $32 million was used to supplement the company's working capital. After paying corporate profits tax, the remaining funds are used to buy other attractive businesses.</p><p>Seychelles brought Berkshire Hathaway many new sources of cash, which, as the Bible describes it, was \"plentiful and fruitful.\"</p><p><b>Government Employees Insurance Corporation (GEICO)</b></p><p>In 1976, Buffett bought $4 million worth of Government Employees Insurance Corporation (GEICO) stock. In 1980, Buffett made another large purchase of GEICO stock, holding a total of 7.2 million shares, accounting for 33% of GEICO's total share capital, at a total cost of $47.14 million. For 15 years after 1980, GEICO continuously repurchased company stock, and Berkshire's stake continued to increase. In 1995, Berkshire's stake had increased to 50%, and it spent $2.3 billion to acquire the remaining 50% stake. After acquiring full ownership, GEICO continuously contributed free insurance floats to Berkshire Hathaway for investment, helping Berkshire Hathaway's net asset value grow rapidly.</p><p>Buffett has a deep connection with the Government Employees Insurance Corporation (GEICO). Back in 1950, when Buffett was a student of Graham, he visited GEICO. David, then vice president of GEICO, received Buffett and spent about four hours explaining the insurance company's operating model in detail, telling Buffett that GEICO's core competitive advantage lay in the low cost advantage brought about by its direct sales model.</p><p>If GEICO is a valuable and highly regarded business fortress, then its cost and expense differentials with its peers are its moat.</p><p><b>Coca-Cola</b></p><p>In 1987, Coca-Cola was in trouble due to conflicts between bottlers provoked by Pepsi, and its stock price was relatively low. In 1988, Buffett began buying large amounts of Coca-Cola shares, holding a total of 14.17 million shares at a cost of 592 million. In 1989, the company continued to increase its holdings, doubling its total number of shares to 23.35 million, at a total cost of 1.024 billion yuan. In 1994, Buffett bought another $270 million worth of stock.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d296107134c53bad12b6b6f54f1ceffa\" tg-width=\"615\" tg-height=\"516\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>To this day, Coca-Cola remains Berkshire Hathaway's top holding, accounting for 9.79% of its total holdings, holding 400 million shares with a market value of over $20 billion, and receiving a total of approximately $6 billion in dividends during this period.</p><p>Buffett has a true love for Coca-Cola. At a Berkshire Hathaway shareholder meeting, Buffett said that he drinks cola every day and has been using this lifestyle since 1982. \"If I could live an extra year by eating only healthy vegetables like asparagus and broccoli every day, and if drinking cola and eating chocolate every day could make me happier but shorten my lifespan by a year, then I would be willing to trade a year of my life for such happiness. That is my choice.\"</p><p>Coca-Cola is an exceptional company whose management cares about shareholders' return on capital and tangible cash returns. The company can operate asset-light businesses while also achieving extremely strong profitability. The company's growth has both a long history of sustainability and a clear outlook for the coming decades. Coca-Cola is classified by Buffett as an \"eternal holding\".</p><p>Other classic examples scattered throughout Berkshire's annual report include:</p><p>The Washington Post, which was acquired in 1973, underwent a share swap in 2014, yielding an annualized return of 12%.</p><p>Scott Fitzel, who was purchased in 1986, contributed a total of $1.03 billion in dividends to Berkshire Hathaway by 2000.</p><p>Freddie Mac, which began buying in 1988, sold all of its shares in 2000, with a total pre-tax profit of approximately $3 billion.</p><p>The PetroChina H shares purchased in 2003 were all sold between July and October 2007, generating a pre-tax investment income of approximately US$3.55 billion.</p><p>Wait, wait.</p><p>These vivid examples not only string together outstanding investment achievements that shine throughout the world, but also reflect changes in investment philosophy and Buffett's investment thinking.</p><p>Buffett is an excellent corporate learner who can quickly and accurately identify the key complexities of a company. He can veto an investment within two minutes and make a major investment decision within two days of analysis. He was always prepared, as he said in the company's annual report: \"Noah didn't wait until it rained to start building the ark.\"</p><p>He doesn't care about how the stock market performs in the short term, emphasizing that determining the company's intrinsic value and a fair and safe price are essential elements of investing. He never invests in companies he doesn't understand or companies outside his sphere of competence. In the 1990s, he pointed out that the results of 12 investment decisions in his 40-year career had set him apart.</p><p><b>Warren Buffett is not outdated; value investing remains on a pedestal.</b></p><p>As a living stock market guru, his outstanding historical achievements are certainly something everyone should learn from and deconstruct. However, numerous academic studies do not have a high degree of consensus on his outstanding historical achievements, and some academic researchers even attribute his performance to luck. In recent years, an academic paper from AQR called Buffett's Alpha concluded that Buffett's excess returns came from investing in safe, high-quality, and cheap stocks, and that the returns implied leverage of 1.4 to 1.6 times due to the extremely low capital costs of Berkshire's insurance business.</p><p>However, to date, there haven't been many studies analyzing Buffett's performance from a behavioral finance perspective. Buffett said in 1987:</p><p>\"In my view, successful investing will not come from mysterious formulas, computer programs, or flashing signals from market prices. On the contrary, investors will succeed if they combine successful business judgment with investment actions, achieve unity of knowledge and action, and their emotions are not affected by market fluctuations.\" Actually, I am not a staunch supporter of the market efficiency hypothesis. I believe that the market is not perfect, but it is not completely irrational either.</p><p>Based on my research experience, Buffett's outstanding historical performance stems from his investment style and cost of capital (i.e., the quantitative part of traditional finance), his and Munger's investment behavior (i.e., the part of behavioral finance), and, on the other hand, there is indeed an element of luck. As the saying goes, none of the favorable timing, location, and people are missing.</p><p>So what exactly did he do right to achieve such investment success? Is it extraordinary ability, luck, or a matter of standing up for oneself?<b>This time, we'll discuss three aspects: investment ability, luck, and behavioral finance.</b></p><p>Excellent investment capabilities are the core</p><p>First, we will use the classic Fama-French 5-factor model to gain an in-depth understanding and analysis of Buffett's style. The five-factor model is based on the famous three-factor model, adding the profit factor RMW (Robust Minus Weak) and the investment factor CMA (Conservative Minus Aggressive). Meanwhile, based on the statistical results of the five-factor model, we processed the original model, removing the market capitalization factor SMB (Small Minus Big) and investment factors, which contributed very little and insignificantly, and introducing the Quality factor QMJ (Quality Minus Junk) and Betting factor BAB (Betting Against Beta) of AQR to form a new FF five-factor model, which more accurately divides the contributions of the factors. The specific assumptions and premises of the model will not be elaborated here.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e21a3224526bbc762d1af144bd187fcd\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"662\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The above breaks down Berkshire's excess return attribution analysis. From the traditional Fama-French five-factor model, it can be seen that the market itself and excess returns are the two largest proportions, followed by high value and high profitability. The market itself and excess returns accounted for 80.2% of the contribution. In other words, Buffett's success is partly due to the long-term rise in the market (national fortune) and partly to his own excellence (ability).</p><p>It is important to note that attribution analysis revealed a negative contribution from small market capitalization. This does not necessarily mean that this factor has no effect; it may also be due to discussions regarding the selection of time periods or indicators. Looking at our improved new FF5 model, we can see that most of the excess returns that could not be explained before have dropped from 6.66% to 2.40%, which is largely explained by the two factors of high quality and low beta.</p><p>Buffett's remarkable performance is largely attributed to his use of high leverage to buy safe, high-quality, and inexpensive stocks at low financing costs and hold them for the long term. No matter how you study it, you can find that Buffett is good at using leverage to amplify returns. However, high leverage can only explain part of its amazing performance; simply blindly using high leverage can actually reduce its returns. From a financing perspective, Buffett's main sources of financing are AAA-rated high-quality bonds and the company's cheap premium income, using a cyclical model of debt-driven investment and investment expanding debt.</p><p>In summary, choosing high-quality, low-beta, and high-value stocks is Buffett's style, which is what Buffett himself said: investing in high-quality companies at average prices is better than investing in average companies at cheap prices. His success was one-third due to fate (gambling on the luck of the times and the country), and mostly due to people (his personal investment ability was too excellent).</p><p>Luck always favors the prepared.</p><p>But some people might ask, out of billions of people in the world, only one Buffett has emerged? Is it just luck? Perhaps all the good fortune in the world is concentrated on this one person? Now let's explore whether the altar is a human or a god. During the 38 years from 1980 to 2017, we first conducted a simple CAPM regression analysis of Berkshire Hathaway's returns, yielding the following results:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/84dfe1bf5c4910c0ab0ab36c678559cc\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"388\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Where beta is approximately 0.65, the cross-intercept alpha is 0.0096, and both parameters pass a significant test, indicating that we reject the original assumption that Buffett's excess returns are zero. Furthermore, in terms of yield, we can see that the excess annualized yield obtained through the simple CAPM model reached 11.52%. From a risk perspective, the volatility of its excess returns (the square root of the total variance of returns minus the variance of market returns) can be calculated as 16.83%.</p><p>To better illustrate Buffett's luck component, we use the following model assumptions:</p><p><ul><li>At the same initial moment, 10,000 completely independent investors invested $1 with Buffett;</p><p></li></ul><ul><li>These investors' returns are completely random, and their annual excess returns follow a normal distribution with a mean of 0 and a variance of 16.83%.</p><p></li></ul><ul><li>These investors will hold firmly until the end of 2017, regardless of the price fluctuations during that period.</p><p></li></ul>After 10,000 random fittings, the results are shown in the figure below:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6555420a8a2e9b5b7c819f679de6457c\" tg-width=\"929\" tg-height=\"514\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In the chart above, the blue line represents Buffett's cumulative return, and the orange line indicates that the final cumulative return exceeds Buffett's random fit growth.</p><p>As can be seen from the chart, out of 10,000 investors who followed Buffett's return distribution but fluctuated randomly (based on luck), only 14 ultimately achieved higher investment performance than Buffett! Furthermore, as can be seen from the chart, Buffett's growth line was almost consistently at the top of the entire random fit throughout the entire holding period.</p><p>Its consistently outstanding performance, consistently within the top 0.2%, is certainly not due to random luck, but rather a testament to its genuine investment strength. Some people might not take it seriously, but there are still 14 \"geniuses\" who are more powerful than Buffett. Let's take the returns of these 14 investors and do a simple study to see if we would choose those who seem more \"awesome\".</p><p><ul><li>Fourteen investors who outperformed Buffett were divided into four groups according to their annualized returns, with the investor with the largest, 75th percentile, 25th percentile, and smallest being the representative of each group.</p><p></li></ul><ul><li>Compare the excess returns of these four investors relative to Buffett, and compare the 10-year rolling annualized returns over the same period (1980-2017).</p><p></li></ul><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2166baf7d6a3cd7460b50e8e7f78f36a\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"512\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Have you noticed that these investors who ultimately outperform Buffett (above the red benchmark) may not even survive in the early stages? Take the best performer (blue) as an example. Before 2005, for nearly 25 years, his performance was consistently worse than Buffett's. His catching up with and surpassing Buffett was almost entirely due to the explosive growth after 2010.</p><p>Such fund managers have probably already been abandoned by investors in reality, so there is no question of a subsequent explosive growth.</p><p>It seems that, having read this far, everyone believes that Buffett's pedestal is out of reach. However, this model has many problems in practice. First, the independence of investors. Even if everyone holds different stocks or assets, their returns will not be completely independent. Secondly, regarding the investment holding period, in real life, a long-term, unchanging investment of 38 years, without considering individual lifespan, should only exist in long-term fund management institutions similar to pension funds.</p><p>However, despite its various flaws, this model still illustrates one point well: trying to defeat Buffett on his pedestal through luck? It's very rare.</p><p>Be self-reliant and have a clear understanding of your circle of competence.</p><p>From a behavioral perspective, value investing is actually about making money from the rebound in value after an oversold price created by the market's overreaction to bad news. But how do we determine whether a company is undervalued because its fundamentals are indeed poor, it has lost its market position, or because the market has overreacted under irrational perceptions? These issues, which are difficult to explain in a single sentence, are actually the most challenging aspects of value investing. Value investing is contrarian investing, which requires contrarian thinking and investment behavior that goes against human nature.</p><p>In Expectations and Investments, Nicola Gennaioli, Yueran Ma, and Andrei Shleifer note:</p><p>High profit margins over the past year can make investors overly optimistic; The low profit margins of the past year can make investors overly pessimistic. In Contrarian Investment, Extrapolation, and Risk, Josef Lakonishok, Andrei Shleifer, and Robert Vishny note:</p><p>Some investors tend to be overly optimistic about stocks that have performed well in the past, leading to overvaluations of these \"beautiful\" stocks. Joseph D. Piotroski, Eric C. So in Identifying Expectation Errors in Value/Glamour Strategies: A Fundamental Analysis Approach:</p><p>The mispricing of stocks stems from investors' excessive optimism about \"overvalued\" stocks and excessive pessimism about \"undervalued\" stocks. Buffett's outstanding historical performance, aside from his exceptional investment ability and low capital costs, and his and Munger's superior behavior and psychology, as well as their accumulated self-cultivation, are also necessary conditions for success.</p><p>This includes overcoming humanity's innate Cognitive and Emotional biases. Buffett and Munger's decision-making styles, cognitive abilities, and emotional discipline all complement Buffett's strong performance. In particular, the influence of Munger, a master of investment and philosophy, on Buffett is an important behavioral factor in Buffett's outstanding performance.</p><p>In 2014, Munger defined four factors contributing to Buffett's success: 1. Buffett's structural personal charisma traits, 2. Berkshire's structural decision-making system, 3. Good luck, 4. The bizarre and intensely contagious dedication of some shareholders, other admirers, and even some in the press.</p><p>In my view, both the factors mentioned above and Buffett's investment framework, which he excels at, can reduce the impact of Over-Confident Bias on investment decisions. Overconfidence bias refers to the situation where our subjective confidence in our judgments is relatively higher than what is actually objectively determined. Overconfidence includes three aspects: overestimation, overplacement, and overprecision.</p><p>Although the consequences of different types of overconfidence are not the same, they have one thing in common: they can lead to long-term and continuous bad financial and other decisions.</p><p>Some studies have shown that overconfidence is not only a common weakness of financial market traders, but more importantly, these seasoned traders often ignore this weakness because the bias of overconfidence is deeply rooted in the human subconscious and is often referred to as \"the root of all biases\".</p><p>From the writings and speeches of Buffett and Munger, we can see that they are keenly aware of overconfidence, the root of all biases, and are very careful about it, taking a series of measures to avoid or minimize the negative impact of overconfidence on decision-making. As Munger said:</p><p>\"People have long misjudged their own scope of knowledge, which is one of the most basic characteristics of human nature. Knowing the scope of one's abilities is one of the most difficult things for humans to do. Knowing what one does not know is more useful in life and business than becoming excellent.\" At the end</p><p>Over 38 years, Buffett and Munger together achieved an annualized return of over 20%, a cumulative increase of more than 1,100 times, far outperforming the already decent S&P 500 index. Buffett's earnings are partly due to the dividends of the overall market environment, but more so to his personal stock selection skills, in which buying high-quality, low-volatility and high-value stocks is his investment style.</p><p>Buffett's excess returns are not due to luck, and it is almost unrealistic to expect him to beat him by chance. As Buffett's best partner, Munger, with his personal charisma and personality, as well as his great philosophical system, is a behavioral mentor for Buffett's outstanding historical achievements.</p><p>However, even a combination as strong as Buffett and Munger has historically underperformed the market significantly at times. If value investing can outperform the market every moment, then countless investors will inevitably flock in, making value investing strategies ineffective. It is precisely the large cyclical tracking error that amplifies investors' irrational behavior, rendering the market efficiency hypothesis invalid and creating opportunities for determined value investors to outperform the market over the long term.</p><p>However, the inherent high tracking error of value investing in the market is also a double-edged sword. Out of 100 value investors, there are 100 reasons to believe in value investing, and also 100 painful experiences of practicing value investing but failing because they could not tolerate tracking errors. As value investors, we need to hold stocks that are endlessly despised by Wall Street, we need to stay away from noisy and superficial stock reviews, we need to maintain our beliefs amidst major market fluctuations, and we need to have enough courage to navigate the long cycle of value investing.</p><p>Let us encourage each other with this.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>91-year-old Warren Buffett: Still navigating cycles, value investing will not fall from its pedestal.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n91-year-old Warren Buffett: Still navigating cycles, value investing will not fall from its pedestal.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-08-30 15:52</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Warren Buffett was born on August 30, 1930, in Omaha, Nebraska, USA. Today, he turns 91 years old.</p><p>Buffett was once asked questions about life. Buffett replied:</p><p>“Physically, I have no value left, only a little residual value. It’s really useless, but it doesn’t stop me from working, it doesn’t stop me from being happy, it doesn’t stop me from thinking. I don’t feel that my enjoyment and passion for life have diminished in any way. In fact, in a sense, the game I’m playing is becoming more and more interesting. It’s a competitive game, a big game, and I enjoy it very much.”</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/49e396b50629cd1c414da9f896d60017\" tg-width=\"924\" tg-height=\"852\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>This name will always be steeped in legend, from American Express to The Washington Post, from the classic legend of Coca-Cola to the 2008 financial crisis that saved Goldman Sachs from disaster. At the same time, its \"value investing\" philosophy has gradually become the creed of value investors. Moreover, Berkshire Hathaway, managed by Buffett, also occupies the top of the hierarchy due to its sky-high price of hundreds of thousands of dollars per share (Class A).</p><p>As a child, Buffett showed a sensitivity to numbers. In 1950, he entered Columbia University's Business School and became a student of Benjamin Graham, known as the \"father of value investors\". Buffett thrived under Graham.</p><p>In 1962, Buffett bought the first Berkshire Hathaway stock. In early 1965, Buffett gained control of Berkshire Hathaway. After that, Berkshire's business nature changed, and it was no longer a simple spinning company, but an investment entity. Buffett used it as a business platform, continuously acquiring other profitable companies and equity, creating an investment myth.</p><p>From 1965 to 2018, Berkshire's book value grew at a compound annual growth rate of 18.7%, significantly exceeding the S&P 500's 9.7%. From 1964 to 2018, Berkshire's overall growth rate was 1,091,899% (or more than 10,918 times), while the S&P 500 index was 15,019%. This is only an increase in book value; Berkshire's intrinsic value has increased far more than its book value.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b81fe99f598432b496647628a93daf9\" tg-width=\"873\" tg-height=\"721\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Data Source Warren Buffett's Letters to Berkshire Shareholders, 2018</p><p>If you had bought $10,000 worth of Berkshire Hathaway stock in 1965, after 53 years of Buffett's masterful management, its market value would have become approximately $247 million today—it's worth mentioning that this is after-tax income!</p><p><b>Classic case: How Buffett did it</b></p><p>Warren Buffett is a representative of concentrated equity investment, and his investment cases are few and far between. The fruitful results of these \"battles,\" relying on the power of compound interest, propelled Berkshire Hathaway into the top ten of U.S. publicly traded companies by market capitalization.</p><p><b>Seesee Candy</b></p><p>In 1972, Buffett acquired See's Candies for $25 million under the name of Blue Chip Printing Company (which was soon incorporated into Berkshire Hathaway).</p><p>Seesee Candy's average annual sales growth was slow, while the increase in unit price led to a surge in net profit.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d41b1c14b1f3e89a4dd75caf7702fbfc\" tg-width=\"753\" tg-height=\"466\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In a letter to shareholders in March 1984, Buffett stated that See's candy is worth much more than its book value. It is a branded enterprise whose products can be sold at a price higher than the cost of production, and will continue to have this pricing power in the future.</p><p>When Buffett looked back on the acquisition of See's Candy, he saw it as a fantastic and outstanding business. From 1972 to 2007, it contributed $1.35 billion in pre-tax profits to Berkshire Hathaway, of which only $32 million was used to supplement the company's working capital. After paying corporate profits tax, the remaining funds are used to buy other attractive businesses.</p><p>Seychelles brought Berkshire Hathaway many new sources of cash, which, as the Bible describes it, was \"plentiful and fruitful.\"</p><p><b>Government Employees Insurance Corporation (GEICO)</b></p><p>In 1976, Buffett bought $4 million worth of Government Employees Insurance Corporation (GEICO) stock. In 1980, Buffett made another large purchase of GEICO stock, holding a total of 7.2 million shares, accounting for 33% of GEICO's total share capital, at a total cost of $47.14 million. For 15 years after 1980, GEICO continuously repurchased company stock, and Berkshire's stake continued to increase. In 1995, Berkshire's stake had increased to 50%, and it spent $2.3 billion to acquire the remaining 50% stake. After acquiring full ownership, GEICO continuously contributed free insurance floats to Berkshire Hathaway for investment, helping Berkshire Hathaway's net asset value grow rapidly.</p><p>Buffett has a deep connection with the Government Employees Insurance Corporation (GEICO). Back in 1950, when Buffett was a student of Graham, he visited GEICO. David, then vice president of GEICO, received Buffett and spent about four hours explaining the insurance company's operating model in detail, telling Buffett that GEICO's core competitive advantage lay in the low cost advantage brought about by its direct sales model.</p><p>If GEICO is a valuable and highly regarded business fortress, then its cost and expense differentials with its peers are its moat.</p><p><b>Coca-Cola</b></p><p>In 1987, Coca-Cola was in trouble due to conflicts between bottlers provoked by Pepsi, and its stock price was relatively low. In 1988, Buffett began buying large amounts of Coca-Cola shares, holding a total of 14.17 million shares at a cost of 592 million. In 1989, the company continued to increase its holdings, doubling its total number of shares to 23.35 million, at a total cost of 1.024 billion yuan. In 1994, Buffett bought another $270 million worth of stock.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d296107134c53bad12b6b6f54f1ceffa\" tg-width=\"615\" tg-height=\"516\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>To this day, Coca-Cola remains Berkshire Hathaway's top holding, accounting for 9.79% of its total holdings, holding 400 million shares with a market value of over $20 billion, and receiving a total of approximately $6 billion in dividends during this period.</p><p>Buffett has a true love for Coca-Cola. At a Berkshire Hathaway shareholder meeting, Buffett said that he drinks cola every day and has been using this lifestyle since 1982. \"If I could live an extra year by eating only healthy vegetables like asparagus and broccoli every day, and if drinking cola and eating chocolate every day could make me happier but shorten my lifespan by a year, then I would be willing to trade a year of my life for such happiness. That is my choice.\"</p><p>Coca-Cola is an exceptional company whose management cares about shareholders' return on capital and tangible cash returns. The company can operate asset-light businesses while also achieving extremely strong profitability. The company's growth has both a long history of sustainability and a clear outlook for the coming decades. Coca-Cola is classified by Buffett as an \"eternal holding\".</p><p>Other classic examples scattered throughout Berkshire's annual report include:</p><p>The Washington Post, which was acquired in 1973, underwent a share swap in 2014, yielding an annualized return of 12%.</p><p>Scott Fitzel, who was purchased in 1986, contributed a total of $1.03 billion in dividends to Berkshire Hathaway by 2000.</p><p>Freddie Mac, which began buying in 1988, sold all of its shares in 2000, with a total pre-tax profit of approximately $3 billion.</p><p>The PetroChina H shares purchased in 2003 were all sold between July and October 2007, generating a pre-tax investment income of approximately US$3.55 billion.</p><p>Wait, wait.</p><p>These vivid examples not only string together outstanding investment achievements that shine throughout the world, but also reflect changes in investment philosophy and Buffett's investment thinking.</p><p>Buffett is an excellent corporate learner who can quickly and accurately identify the key complexities of a company. He can veto an investment within two minutes and make a major investment decision within two days of analysis. He was always prepared, as he said in the company's annual report: \"Noah didn't wait until it rained to start building the ark.\"</p><p>He doesn't care about how the stock market performs in the short term, emphasizing that determining the company's intrinsic value and a fair and safe price are essential elements of investing. He never invests in companies he doesn't understand or companies outside his sphere of competence. In the 1990s, he pointed out that the results of 12 investment decisions in his 40-year career had set him apart.</p><p><b>Warren Buffett is not outdated; value investing remains on a pedestal.</b></p><p>As a living stock market guru, his outstanding historical achievements are certainly something everyone should learn from and deconstruct. However, numerous academic studies do not have a high degree of consensus on his outstanding historical achievements, and some academic researchers even attribute his performance to luck. In recent years, an academic paper from AQR called Buffett's Alpha concluded that Buffett's excess returns came from investing in safe, high-quality, and cheap stocks, and that the returns implied leverage of 1.4 to 1.6 times due to the extremely low capital costs of Berkshire's insurance business.</p><p>However, to date, there haven't been many studies analyzing Buffett's performance from a behavioral finance perspective. Buffett said in 1987:</p><p>\"In my view, successful investing will not come from mysterious formulas, computer programs, or flashing signals from market prices. On the contrary, investors will succeed if they combine successful business judgment with investment actions, achieve unity of knowledge and action, and their emotions are not affected by market fluctuations.\" Actually, I am not a staunch supporter of the market efficiency hypothesis. I believe that the market is not perfect, but it is not completely irrational either.</p><p>Based on my research experience, Buffett's outstanding historical performance stems from his investment style and cost of capital (i.e., the quantitative part of traditional finance), his and Munger's investment behavior (i.e., the part of behavioral finance), and, on the other hand, there is indeed an element of luck. As the saying goes, none of the favorable timing, location, and people are missing.</p><p>So what exactly did he do right to achieve such investment success? Is it extraordinary ability, luck, or a matter of standing up for oneself?<b>This time, we'll discuss three aspects: investment ability, luck, and behavioral finance.</b></p><p>Excellent investment capabilities are the core</p><p>First, we will use the classic Fama-French 5-factor model to gain an in-depth understanding and analysis of Buffett's style. The five-factor model is based on the famous three-factor model, adding the profit factor RMW (Robust Minus Weak) and the investment factor CMA (Conservative Minus Aggressive). Meanwhile, based on the statistical results of the five-factor model, we processed the original model, removing the market capitalization factor SMB (Small Minus Big) and investment factors, which contributed very little and insignificantly, and introducing the Quality factor QMJ (Quality Minus Junk) and Betting factor BAB (Betting Against Beta) of AQR to form a new FF five-factor model, which more accurately divides the contributions of the factors. The specific assumptions and premises of the model will not be elaborated here.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e21a3224526bbc762d1af144bd187fcd\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"662\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The above breaks down Berkshire's excess return attribution analysis. From the traditional Fama-French five-factor model, it can be seen that the market itself and excess returns are the two largest proportions, followed by high value and high profitability. The market itself and excess returns accounted for 80.2% of the contribution. In other words, Buffett's success is partly due to the long-term rise in the market (national fortune) and partly to his own excellence (ability).</p><p>It is important to note that attribution analysis revealed a negative contribution from small market capitalization. This does not necessarily mean that this factor has no effect; it may also be due to discussions regarding the selection of time periods or indicators. Looking at our improved new FF5 model, we can see that most of the excess returns that could not be explained before have dropped from 6.66% to 2.40%, which is largely explained by the two factors of high quality and low beta.</p><p>Buffett's remarkable performance is largely attributed to his use of high leverage to buy safe, high-quality, and inexpensive stocks at low financing costs and hold them for the long term. No matter how you study it, you can find that Buffett is good at using leverage to amplify returns. However, high leverage can only explain part of its amazing performance; simply blindly using high leverage can actually reduce its returns. From a financing perspective, Buffett's main sources of financing are AAA-rated high-quality bonds and the company's cheap premium income, using a cyclical model of debt-driven investment and investment expanding debt.</p><p>In summary, choosing high-quality, low-beta, and high-value stocks is Buffett's style, which is what Buffett himself said: investing in high-quality companies at average prices is better than investing in average companies at cheap prices. His success was one-third due to fate (gambling on the luck of the times and the country), and mostly due to people (his personal investment ability was too excellent).</p><p>Luck always favors the prepared.</p><p>But some people might ask, out of billions of people in the world, only one Buffett has emerged? Is it just luck? Perhaps all the good fortune in the world is concentrated on this one person? Now let's explore whether the altar is a human or a god. During the 38 years from 1980 to 2017, we first conducted a simple CAPM regression analysis of Berkshire Hathaway's returns, yielding the following results:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/84dfe1bf5c4910c0ab0ab36c678559cc\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"388\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Where beta is approximately 0.65, the cross-intercept alpha is 0.0096, and both parameters pass a significant test, indicating that we reject the original assumption that Buffett's excess returns are zero. Furthermore, in terms of yield, we can see that the excess annualized yield obtained through the simple CAPM model reached 11.52%. From a risk perspective, the volatility of its excess returns (the square root of the total variance of returns minus the variance of market returns) can be calculated as 16.83%.</p><p>To better illustrate Buffett's luck component, we use the following model assumptions:</p><p><ul><li>At the same initial moment, 10,000 completely independent investors invested $1 with Buffett;</p><p></li></ul><ul><li>These investors' returns are completely random, and their annual excess returns follow a normal distribution with a mean of 0 and a variance of 16.83%.</p><p></li></ul><ul><li>These investors will hold firmly until the end of 2017, regardless of the price fluctuations during that period.</p><p></li></ul>After 10,000 random fittings, the results are shown in the figure below:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6555420a8a2e9b5b7c819f679de6457c\" tg-width=\"929\" tg-height=\"514\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In the chart above, the blue line represents Buffett's cumulative return, and the orange line indicates that the final cumulative return exceeds Buffett's random fit growth.</p><p>As can be seen from the chart, out of 10,000 investors who followed Buffett's return distribution but fluctuated randomly (based on luck), only 14 ultimately achieved higher investment performance than Buffett! Furthermore, as can be seen from the chart, Buffett's growth line was almost consistently at the top of the entire random fit throughout the entire holding period.</p><p>Its consistently outstanding performance, consistently within the top 0.2%, is certainly not due to random luck, but rather a testament to its genuine investment strength. Some people might not take it seriously, but there are still 14 \"geniuses\" who are more powerful than Buffett. Let's take the returns of these 14 investors and do a simple study to see if we would choose those who seem more \"awesome\".</p><p><ul><li>Fourteen investors who outperformed Buffett were divided into four groups according to their annualized returns, with the investor with the largest, 75th percentile, 25th percentile, and smallest being the representative of each group.</p><p></li></ul><ul><li>Compare the excess returns of these four investors relative to Buffett, and compare the 10-year rolling annualized returns over the same period (1980-2017).</p><p></li></ul><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2166baf7d6a3cd7460b50e8e7f78f36a\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"512\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Have you noticed that these investors who ultimately outperform Buffett (above the red benchmark) may not even survive in the early stages? Take the best performer (blue) as an example. Before 2005, for nearly 25 years, his performance was consistently worse than Buffett's. His catching up with and surpassing Buffett was almost entirely due to the explosive growth after 2010.</p><p>Such fund managers have probably already been abandoned by investors in reality, so there is no question of a subsequent explosive growth.</p><p>It seems that, having read this far, everyone believes that Buffett's pedestal is out of reach. However, this model has many problems in practice. First, the independence of investors. Even if everyone holds different stocks or assets, their returns will not be completely independent. Secondly, regarding the investment holding period, in real life, a long-term, unchanging investment of 38 years, without considering individual lifespan, should only exist in long-term fund management institutions similar to pension funds.</p><p>However, despite its various flaws, this model still illustrates one point well: trying to defeat Buffett on his pedestal through luck? It's very rare.</p><p>Be self-reliant and have a clear understanding of your circle of competence.</p><p>From a behavioral perspective, value investing is actually about making money from the rebound in value after an oversold price created by the market's overreaction to bad news. But how do we determine whether a company is undervalued because its fundamentals are indeed poor, it has lost its market position, or because the market has overreacted under irrational perceptions? These issues, which are difficult to explain in a single sentence, are actually the most challenging aspects of value investing. Value investing is contrarian investing, which requires contrarian thinking and investment behavior that goes against human nature.</p><p>In Expectations and Investments, Nicola Gennaioli, Yueran Ma, and Andrei Shleifer note:</p><p>High profit margins over the past year can make investors overly optimistic; The low profit margins of the past year can make investors overly pessimistic. In Contrarian Investment, Extrapolation, and Risk, Josef Lakonishok, Andrei Shleifer, and Robert Vishny note:</p><p>Some investors tend to be overly optimistic about stocks that have performed well in the past, leading to overvaluations of these \"beautiful\" stocks. Joseph D. Piotroski, Eric C. So in Identifying Expectation Errors in Value/Glamour Strategies: A Fundamental Analysis Approach:</p><p>The mispricing of stocks stems from investors' excessive optimism about \"overvalued\" stocks and excessive pessimism about \"undervalued\" stocks. Buffett's outstanding historical performance, aside from his exceptional investment ability and low capital costs, and his and Munger's superior behavior and psychology, as well as their accumulated self-cultivation, are also necessary conditions for success.</p><p>This includes overcoming humanity's innate Cognitive and Emotional biases. Buffett and Munger's decision-making styles, cognitive abilities, and emotional discipline all complement Buffett's strong performance. In particular, the influence of Munger, a master of investment and philosophy, on Buffett is an important behavioral factor in Buffett's outstanding performance.</p><p>In 2014, Munger defined four factors contributing to Buffett's success: 1. Buffett's structural personal charisma traits, 2. Berkshire's structural decision-making system, 3. Good luck, 4. The bizarre and intensely contagious dedication of some shareholders, other admirers, and even some in the press.</p><p>In my view, both the factors mentioned above and Buffett's investment framework, which he excels at, can reduce the impact of Over-Confident Bias on investment decisions. Overconfidence bias refers to the situation where our subjective confidence in our judgments is relatively higher than what is actually objectively determined. Overconfidence includes three aspects: overestimation, overplacement, and overprecision.</p><p>Although the consequences of different types of overconfidence are not the same, they have one thing in common: they can lead to long-term and continuous bad financial and other decisions.</p><p>Some studies have shown that overconfidence is not only a common weakness of financial market traders, but more importantly, these seasoned traders often ignore this weakness because the bias of overconfidence is deeply rooted in the human subconscious and is often referred to as \"the root of all biases\".</p><p>From the writings and speeches of Buffett and Munger, we can see that they are keenly aware of overconfidence, the root of all biases, and are very careful about it, taking a series of measures to avoid or minimize the negative impact of overconfidence on decision-making. As Munger said:</p><p>\"People have long misjudged their own scope of knowledge, which is one of the most basic characteristics of human nature. Knowing the scope of one's abilities is one of the most difficult things for humans to do. Knowing what one does not know is more useful in life and business than becoming excellent.\" At the end</p><p>Over 38 years, Buffett and Munger together achieved an annualized return of over 20%, a cumulative increase of more than 1,100 times, far outperforming the already decent S&P 500 index. Buffett's earnings are partly due to the dividends of the overall market environment, but more so to his personal stock selection skills, in which buying high-quality, low-volatility and high-value stocks is his investment style.</p><p>Buffett's excess returns are not due to luck, and it is almost unrealistic to expect him to beat him by chance. As Buffett's best partner, Munger, with his personal charisma and personality, as well as his great philosophical system, is a behavioral mentor for Buffett's outstanding historical achievements.</p><p>However, even a combination as strong as Buffett and Munger has historically underperformed the market significantly at times. If value investing can outperform the market every moment, then countless investors will inevitably flock in, making value investing strategies ineffective. It is precisely the large cyclical tracking error that amplifies investors' irrational behavior, rendering the market efficiency hypothesis invalid and creating opportunities for determined value investors to outperform the market over the long term.</p><p>However, the inherent high tracking error of value investing in the market is also a double-edged sword. Out of 100 value investors, there are 100 reasons to believe in value investing, and also 100 painful experiences of practicing value investing but failing because they could not tolerate tracking errors. As value investors, we need to hold stocks that are endlessly despised by Wall Street, we need to stay away from noisy and superficial stock reviews, we need to maintain our beliefs amidst major market fluctuations, and we need to have enough courage to navigate the long cycle of value investing.</p><p>Let us encourage each other with this.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9beffeecb928009bf6287e307899ffe3","relate_stocks":{"BRK.A":"伯克希尔","BRK.B":"伯克希尔B"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1183198336","content_text":"沃伦·巴菲特（Warren Buffett），1930年8月30日出生于美国内布拉斯加州的奥马哈小镇，今天，他年满91岁。\n曾有人问巴菲特关于生命的问题。巴菲特回答：\n“在身体上我已经没有什么价值了，仅剩一点残值，它真的没有什么用了，但它不妨碍我工作，不妨碍我感到快乐，不妨碍我思考。我不感觉我对生活的享受，和热爱有任何减少，事实上，在某种意义上，我所处的游戏正变得越来越有趣，这是富有竞争的游戏，很大一场游戏，我很享受这场游戏。”\n\n这个名字永远带着浓厚的传奇色彩，从当年的美国运通到华盛顿邮报，从可口可乐的经典传奇，到08年金融危机拯救高盛于水火。与此同时，其“价值投资”理念也逐渐成为价值投资者的信条。不仅如此，巴菲特管理的伯克希尔哈撒韦公司，也因为几十万美元一股（A类）的天价，雄踞鄙视链的顶端。\n在孩童时期，巴菲特就显现出对数字的敏感。1950年考入哥伦比亚大学商学院，拜师号称“价值投资者之父”的本杰明·格雷厄姆。在格雷厄姆门下，巴菲特如鱼得水。\n1962年，巴菲特买入第一笔伯克希尔股票。1965年年初，巴菲特获得伯克希尔的控制权。之后伯克希尔的经营性质发生了变化，不再是一家单纯的纺纱企业，而是一个投资实体。巴菲特将其作为经营平台，不断地收购其他利润丰厚的公司和股权，创造投资神话。\n1965~2018年，伯克希尔账面价值的复合年增长率为18.7%，明显超过标普500指数的9.7%。1964~2018年，伯克希尔的整体增长率是1,091,899%（即10918倍以上），而标普500指数为15,019%。这仅是账面价值的增长，伯克希尔内在价值的增长远高于其账面价值。\n\n数据来源：《WarrenBuffett's Letters to Berkshire Shareholders，2018》\n如果你在1965年买入1万美元的伯克希尔股票，经过巴菲特53年鬼斧神工的运作，它今天市场价格就已然变成大约2.47亿美元——值得一提的是这是税后的收入！\n经典案例：巴菲特是怎样做到的\n巴菲特是股权集中投资的代表，其投资案例少且精。这些“战役”的胜利硕果，依靠复利的力量，把伯克希尔推进了美国上市公司市值前十行列。\n喜诗糖果\n1972年，巴菲特以蓝筹印花公司（不久后被并入伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司）的名义花了2500万美元收购了喜诗糖果（See’s Candies）公司。\n喜诗糖果年均销量增长缓慢，而因单价的提升致使净利润暴增。\n\n在1984年3月致股东信里，巴菲特讲道：喜诗糖果比其账面价值要值钱很多。它是一个品牌企业，它的产品能够以高于生产成本的价格销售，并且在未来也会继续拥有这种定价权。\n巴菲特在回顾收购喜诗糖果时，视它为一项梦幻般出色的业务。从1972年至2007年，其为伯克希尔贡献了13.5亿美元的税前利润，只消耗了其中3200万美元用于补充公司的运营资金。在支付了企业利润税之后，剩下的资金来购买其他具有吸引力的企业。\n喜诗公司给伯克希尔带来了许多新的现金源泉，对伯克希尔来说就像《圣经》中形容的一样：“丰腴膏沃且生养众多”。\n政府雇员保险公司（GEICO）\n1976年，巴菲特买进了400万美元的政府雇员保险公司（GEICO）股票。1980年，巴菲特再次大笔买入GEICO股票，总共持有其720万股，占GEICO总股本的33%，总成本4714万美元。1980年之后的15年里，GEICO不断回购公司股票，伯克希尔的股权占比不断提高。1995年，伯克希尔股权占比已提高至50%，并花费23亿美元收购了剩余50%股份。在拥有全部股权后，GEICO不断地为伯克希尔贡献免费的保险浮存金用于投资，帮助伯克希尔的资产净值快速增长。\n巴菲特与政府雇员保险公司（GEICO）的渊源颇深。早在1950年，巴菲特还是格雷厄姆的学生时，就去拜访过GEICO，时任GEICO副总裁的大卫接待了巴菲特并花了约4小时详细地向巴菲特解释保险公司的运营模式，告诉巴菲特GEICO的核心竞争优势在于直销模式带来的低成本优势。\n若说GEICO是一座价值不菲且的众所仰望的商业城堡，那么其与同业间的成本与费用差异就是它的护城河。\n可口可乐\n1987年，可口可乐因百事可乐挑起的装瓶商之间的矛盾而陷入困境，股价较为低迷。1988年，巴菲特开始大量买入可口可乐股份，1988年年底共持有1417万股，成本5.92亿。1989年，继续增持，持股总数翻了一倍达2335万股，总成本10.24亿。1994年，巴菲特又买入了价值2.7亿美元的股票。\n\n至今，可口可乐仍是伯克希尔的重仓股，占总持仓比例的9.79%，持有4亿股，市值超过200亿美元，期间收到的分红总额约为60亿美元。\n巴菲特对可口可乐是真爱。在伯克希尔某次股东大会上，巴菲特表示，自己每天都喝可乐，从1982年开始就一直沿用这样的生活方式。“如果我每天只吃芦笋和西兰花一类的健康蔬菜可以多活一年，每天喝可乐吃巧克力能让我更开心却要折寿一年，那我愿意用一年的生命换取这样的快乐，这就是我的选择。”\n可口可乐是家卓越的公司，管理层关心股东的资本回报和有形现金收益。公司既能经营轻资产业务，同时还能获得极强的盈利能力。公司的增长既有很长的历史持续性，而且未来几十年的前景也很清晰。可口可乐被巴菲特归类为“永恒的持股”。\n散落在伯克希尔年报中的其他经典案例还有：\n1973年开始买入的华盛顿邮报，2014年股权置换，年化收益率12%；\n1986年买入的斯科特费策尔，到2000年，总共为伯克希尔贡献了10.3亿美元的分红；\n1988年开始买入的房地美，2000年全部卖出，税前总收益约为30亿美元；\n2003买入的中国石油H股，2007年7-10月全部卖出，税前投资收益约为35.5亿美元；\n等等。\n一个个鲜活的案例，不仅串成了显赫的投资业绩光耀于世，背后更蕴含着投资哲学及巴菲特投资思维的变化。\n巴菲特是一个出色的企业学习者，能够快速、精确地分辨出一个公司的复杂关键所在。他能在两分钟内否决一项投资，也能在分析的两天之内做出重大投资决策。他时刻准备着，正如他在公司年报中所说：“诺亚并不是等到下雨时才开始建造方舟。”\n他不关心短期股市的走势如何，强调确定公司内在价值和一个公平安全的价格是投资的要素。他从不投资于自己不懂的公司或能力圈之外的公司。在90年代，他曾指出，在他已有的40年职业生涯中，12项投资决策带来的结果已经使他与众不同。\n巴菲特没有过时，价值投资仍在神坛之上\n贵为在世的股神，其优异的历史业绩，一定是大家竞相学习和解构的对象。但众多的学术研究，并没有对其优异的历史业绩有非常高的共识，一些学术研究人员甚至将他的表现归功于运气。最近几年有一篇出自AQR的学术论文，叫巴菲特的超额收益（Buffet's Alpha），这篇论文得出结论，巴菲特的超额收益，来自于投资了安全、优质和廉价的股票，并且因为伯克希尔保险业务超低的资金成本，回报隐含了1.4~1.6倍的杠杆。\n但是，迄今为止，还并没有特别多的从行为金融学的角度，分析巴菲特业绩的研究。巴菲特在1987年时说过：\n\n “在我看来，成功的投资将不会来自于神秘的公式，计算机程序或市场的价格所发出的闪烁的信号。相反，投资者若将成功的商业判断与投资行动结合起来，做到知行合一，情绪不受市场波动影响，便会成功。”\n\n其实我并不是一个市场有效性假说的坚决拥护者，我相信市场不是完美的，但也不是完全不理性的。\n从我的研究经验来看，巴菲特优异的历史业绩，一方面来自于他的投资风格和资金成本（也就是定量的传统金融学的部分），另一方面，来自于他和芒格的投资行为（也就是行为金融学的部分），还有一方面，确实有着一些些运气的成分。正所谓，天时地利人和，一个都不能少。\n所以，他到底做对了什么，可以获得如此的投资成就呢？是能力过人，还是运气使然，抑或是立身行己？这次，我们从投资能力、运气和行为金融，这三个方面来聊聊。\n优异的投资能力是核心\n首先，我们借用经典的Fama-French的5因子模型，深入了解分析巴菲特的风格。五因子模型，是在著名的三因子模型之上，加入了盈利因子RMW（Robust Minus Weak）和投资因子CMA（Conservative Minus Aggressive）。同时，我们根据五因子模型的统计结果，对原模型进行了加工，去掉了贡献很小且不显著的市值因子SMB（Small Minus Big）和投资因子，引入了AQR的质量因子QMJ（Quality Minus Junk）和贝塔因子BAB（Betting Against Beta），组成了新FF五因子模型，更加精确地划分因子的贡献。具体模型的假设前提，在这里就不赘述了。\n\n以上将伯克希尔公司的超额收益归因分析进行拆分，从传统的Fama-French五因子模型，可以看出市场本身和超额收益，是最大的两个占比，其次是高价值和高盈利。其中市场本身和超额收益两者的贡献占比达到80.2%，换句话说，巴菲特能取得如此的成就，一半感谢市场长期的上涨（国运），一半得益于自身优秀（能力）。\n其中需要注意的是，归因分析出来发现小市值是负贡献的，这里不能绝对的说这个因子没有作用，也可能是时间段的选择或者指标的选择方面存在商榷。再看经过我们改良过的新FF5模型，可以发现，之前未能被解释的大部分超额收益，从6.66%，下降到了2.40%，被高质量质和低贝塔两个因子解释了相当一部分。\n巴菲特惊人的业绩，主要归功于以较低的融资成本，使用高杠杆，购买安全、高质量又便宜的股票，并长期持有。无论用什么方式研究，都可以发现巴菲特善于使用杠杆来放大收益。但是，高杠杆只能解释一部分其惊人的表现，如果仅仅盲目的高杠杆，反而会降低其收益。从融资端看，巴菲特的融资来源主要是AAA级的优质债券，和公司廉价的保费收入，以负债驱动投资，投资扩大负债的循环模式。\n总结下来：选择高质量、低贝塔、高价值的股票是巴菲特的风格，也就是巴老自己所说的：用一般的价格投资高质量的公司，优于在便宜的价格投资一般的公司。他的成功，三分之一靠天（赌时代和国家的运气），大部分靠人（个人投资能力太优秀）。\n运气永远是给有准备的人\n但是可能有的人就会问了，全世界几十亿人，也就出了一个巴菲特呀？是不是仅仅只是运气好呢？说不定全世界的好运气都集中在这一个人身上了呢？下面我们就来研究，神坛上到底是人还是神？还是在1980年至2017年这38年的时间里，首先我们对伯克希尔公司的收益率作简单的CAPM回归分析，得到结果如下：\n\n其中beta约为0.65，横截距alpha为0.0096,，并且两个参数都通过显著检验，说明我们拒绝巴菲特的超额收益为0的原假设。进一步而言，从收益率上，我们可以看出，通过简单CAPM模型得到的超额年化收益率达到了11.52%。从风险的角度，可以算得其超额收益的波动率（收益率总方差减市场收益率方差的平方根）为16.83%。\n为了更好说明巴菲特的运气成分，我们采用以下模型假设：\n\n在同一个初始时刻，有10000个完全独立的投资者，和巴菲特一起投资了1美元；\n\n\n这些投资者的收益率完全随机，其每一年的超额收益服从均值为0，方差等于16.83%的正态分布；\n\n\n这些投资者会一直坚定地持有到2017年年底，无论期间的涨跌幅。\n\n做10000次的随机拟合，得到结果如下图：\n\n上图中，蓝色的线表示巴菲特的累计收益，橙色的线表示最终累计收益率超过了巴菲特的随机拟合增长。\n从图中可以看出，10000个服从巴菲特收益分布但是随机波动的投资者（凭运气），仅仅只有14位最终获得了比巴菲特高的投资表现！而且从图上还可以看出，在整个持有期内，巴菲特的增长线几乎一直在整个随机拟合部分的顶部。\n长期保持着“超神”的表现，一直稳定在前0.2%的的范围内，这一定不是随机的运气，而是实实在在的投资实力。可能有的小伙伴还会觉得不以为然，还是有14个“天才”比巴菲特厉害的嘛，那我们取出来这14个投资者的收益率，做个简单的研究，看看我们是否会选择看上去更加“牛叉”的他们。\n\n将14个表现优于巴菲特的投资者，按照年化收益率的大小排序分为四组，取最大、75%分位、25%分位和最小的那一位投资者作为每一组代表；\n\n\n比较这四位投资者相对巴菲特的超额收益，在同时期内（1980年~2017年），比较10年滚动年化收益率。\n\n\n小伙伴们有木有发现，这些最终表现优于巴菲特（红色基准线之上）的投资者，可能根本在前期就活不下来喂！以表现最好的（蓝色）举个例子，其在2005年之前，在近25年的时间内，表现一直比巴菲特差，赶上并超过巴菲特，几乎是得益于2010年之后的爆发。\n这样的基金经理，在现实中恐怕早已被投资人所抛弃了，所以更谈不上之后的井喷式爆发。\n似乎看到这里，小伙伴们都认为神坛之上的巴菲特遥不可及。但是，这个模型在实际情况中却存在许多问题。首先，投资人之间的独立性。即便每个人都持有不一样的股票或资产，他们之间的收益率也不会是完全独立的；其次，投资的持有期，在实际生活中，38年的长期不变的投资，在不考虑个人寿命的情况下，应该只存在类似养老金的长期资金管理机构之上了。\n但是即便这个模型存在种种缺陷，但还是很好地说明了一个问题，想靠运气打败神坛上的巴菲特？难得很。\n立身行己，对能力圈清楚的认知\n价值投资，其实从行为学的角度来看，就是在赚取由于市场对坏消息过激的反应创造出来的超跌后价值回升的钱。但如何判断价值被低估的公司，是因为公司确实基本面差、丧失和市场地位，还是因为市场在不理性的认知下过度反应了呢？这些难以一句话解释清楚的问题，其实就是价值投资最具挑战性的地方。价值投资是逆向投资，逆向投资要求有逆向思维，而且要求有逆人性的投资行为。\nNicola Gennaioli，Yueran Ma，Andrei Shleifer 在《Expectation and Investments》中指出：\n\n 过往一年高的利润率，会使得投资人过度乐观；而过往一年低的利润率，会使得投资人过度悲观。\n\nJosef Lakonishok, Andrei Shleifer, Robert Vishny在《Contrarian Investment, Extrapolation, and Risk》中指出：\n\n 一些投资人往往对过往表现好的股票过于乐观，导致这些“漂亮的”股票估值过高。\n\nJoseph D. Piotroski, Eric C. So在《Identifying Expectation Errors in Value/ Glamour Strategies: A Fundamental Analysis Approach》中指出：\n\n 股票的错误定价来自于投资人对于“高估值”股票的过度乐观和对“低估值”股票的过度悲观。\n\n巴菲特优异的历史业绩，抛开其过人的投资能力和低廉的资金成本，他和芒格在行为和心理上高人一等、日积月累的修行，也是成功的必要条件。\n这包括战胜人类天生的认知偏见（Cognitive Bias）和情感偏见（Emotional Bias）。巴菲特和芒格的决策方式、认知能力或情感纪律，都是巴菲特优势业绩的互补。特别是芒格这位投资和哲学大师，对于巴菲特的影响，都是巴菲特优异业绩的重要行为因素。\n芒格在2014年，定义过巴菲特成功的四个因素：1. 巴菲特的结构性的个人魅力特征，2. 伯克希尔的结构性的决策体系，3. 好的运气，4. 一些股东的、其他仰慕者的、包括新闻界中的一些人的怪异而又激烈的传染性的奉献精神。\n在我看来，不管是上述的因素，还是巴菲特擅长的投资框架，都能减少过度自信偏见（Over-Confident Bias）对投资决策的影响。过度自信偏见是指我们对判断的主观信心相对高于实际客观确定的情况，过度自信包含三个方面，即过度估计（Over Estimation），过度放置（Over Placement）和过度精确（Over Precision）。\n尽管不同类型的过度自信的后果并不相同，但它们的共同点是：会长久和持续地导致错误的财务和其他决策。\n一些研究表明，过度自信不仅是金融市场交易员的普遍弱点，关键是这些身经百战的交易员对这个弱点经常会熟视无睹，因为过度自信这个偏见，深深的根植于人类的潜意识，常被称为“所有偏见的根源”。\n从巴菲特和芒格的文字和演讲中，我们能发现他们敏锐地意识到了过度自信这个所有偏见的根源，并对其非常的小心谨慎，采取一系列的手段，避免或者尽量最小化过度自信对决策的不良影响。就像芒格所说的：\n\n “人们长期错误地评估自己的知识范围，这是人性最基本的特征之一。知道自己的能力范围，是人类要做的最困难的事情之一。知道自己不知道的东西，对生活和业务而言，比变得出色更有用。”\n\n写在最后\n38年间，巴菲特和芒格一起，获得了年化超20%的收益，累计上涨1100多倍，业绩远远优于本来表现还就不错的标普500指数。巴菲特的收益有一部分得益于市场大环境的红利，但更多的归功于个人的选股实力，其中买入高质量、低波动且高价值的股票是其投资风格。\n巴菲特所获得超额收益也不是运气成分，想靠随机打败巴菲特几乎不现实。而芒格作为巴菲特最好的搭档，其个人魅力和性格，以及其伟大的哲学体系，是巴菲特优异历史业绩的行为导师。\n然而就算是强如巴菲特和芒格的组合，其业绩在历史上，也有时不时大幅度跑输大盘的时候。如果价值投资每时每刻都能跑赢大盘，那么必然会有无数的投资人涌入，从而导致价值投资策略失效。而正是有周期性的较大的跟踪误差，放大了投资人的不理性行为，才使得市场有效性假说不成立，为坚定的价值投资者在长周期上跑赢市场带来了机会。\n然而价值投资对市场天然的高跟踪误差，也是一把双刃剑。100个价值投资者有100个相信价值投资的理由，也有100个践行价值投资却无法忍受跟踪误差而失败的惨痛经历。作为一个价值投资者，我们需要持有被华尔街无穷鄙视的股票，我们需要远离喧闹浮躁的神股评，我们需要在市场的大波动中坚定信念，我们更需要有足够大的勇气穿越价值投资的长周期。\n以此，共勉。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BRK.B":0.9,"BRK.A":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5708,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":835733147,"gmtCreate":1629743259689,"gmtModify":1676530118050,"author":{"id":"3586167248367118","authorId":"3586167248367118","name":"TanTH","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f9317bf33bd64e46c21c589d7bac5157","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3586167248367118","authorIdStr":"3586167248367118"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Good&nbsp;","listText":"Good&nbsp;","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/835733147","repostId":"2161772849","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2161772849","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1629740700,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2161772849?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-08-24 01:45","market":"fut","language":"zh","title":"A multi-headed carnival! Is the Federal Reserve in a dilemma? The US dollar plummeted, triggering a \"chorus of gains\" in financial markets.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2161772849","media":"FX168","summary":"FX168财经报社(北美)讯 周一(8月23日)美市盘中，美元指数持续走低，并刷新日低至93.01，因市场对美国货币政策方向的疑虑引发获利回吐；美元回落以及新冠疫情肆虐引发的担忧情绪提振了黄金，现货黄金终于突破1800...","content":"<p><html><body><div><div>FX168 Financial News Agency (North America) reported that the US Dollar Index continued to decline during US trading on Monday (August 23), hitting a daily low of 93.01, as profit-taking triggered by market concerns about the direction of US monetary policy. The decline in the US dollar and concerns caused by the COVID-19 pandemic boosted gold prices, with spot gold finally breaking through the $1,800 mark, up $30 from its daily low. The crude oil market was boosted by a weaker dollar and zero new confirmed cases in China, with US WTI crude oil rising sharply by 6%. All three major U.S. stock indexes rose, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average up 300 points, or 0.8%, and the Nasdaq Composite up 1.6%. As the COVID-19 pandemic continues to surge, the Federal Reserve will hold its annual seminar later this week in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's economic outlook speech and the timing of reducing quantitative easing have attracted much attention.</p><p><strong>Data released intraday in the United States is mixed: US August<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MRKT\">Markit</a>The preliminary reading of the services PMI came in at 55.2, a new low since December last year. The preliminary U.S. manufacturing PMI for August fell to 61.2 from 63.4 in July.</strong></p><p>The agency commented that U.S. business activity continued to slow, with growth slowing to an eight-month low in August amid raw material shortages, labor shortages, and rising COVID-19 cases. The decline in the PMI this month highlights the extent to which supply chain disruptions are hitting companies that are already struggling to meet demand. Service providers and manufacturers continue to face challenges in attracting workers and obtaining supplies.</p><p><strong>However, another piece of data released later performed strongly: U.S. existing home sales in July were 5.99 million, compared to the expected 5.81 million and the previous value revised to 5.87 million.</strong></p><p>According to analysts, U.S. existing home sales increased for the second consecutive month in July, as home prices fell from the previous month's record level due to a moderate improvement in inventory. The increase in sales suggests that this year's downward trend in sales may have ended, based on last year's 14-year high.</p><p>The dollar fell across the board on Monday, after recording its biggest weekly gain in more than two months last week, as profit-taking triggered concerns about the direction of U.S. monetary policy.</p><p>Higher-risk currencies such as the Australian dollar, Norwegian krone, and Canadian dollar were the main beneficiaries of the weakening dollar, all of which rose by more than 0.5%.</p><p>the US Dollar Index hit a nine-month high last week, up nearly 5% from its May low, as investors further bet that the Federal Reserve will begin tapering its pandemic-era stimulus policies ahead of Europe and Japan.</p><p><strong>In U.S. trading, the the US Dollar Index, which measures the dollar's performance against other major currencies, fell nearly 0.5% to 93.01, after hitting a high of 93.73 last Friday, its highest level since early November.</strong></p><p><img oldsrc=\"W020210824062902363823.png\" src=\"https://www.fx168.com/all/2108/W020210824062902363823.png\"/></p><p>(the US Dollar Index 30-minute chart, source: FX168)</p><p><strong>But Dallas Fed President Kaplan said last Friday that he might reconsider whether it was necessary to start scaling back bond purchases ahead of schedule if the virus damages the economy. Kaplan is a well-known hawk.</strong></p><p><strong>Kaplan was the first Federal Reserve official to suggest that tapering should take place as soon as possible, and his views indicate that the Fed's hawks are wavering ahead of the Jackson Hole meeting.</strong></p><p>“Kaplan said he might adjust his view on asset purchases if Delta variant cases continue to rise, so the Fed’s dovish rhetoric weighed on the dollar, as rising concerns about Delta were detrimental to the dollar,” said a trader at a Japanese bank.</p><p>Some analysts believe that further spread of the variant could derail the Federal Reserve's plans to scale back its pandemic-era stimulus program by the end of the year.</p><p><strong>Traders are eagerly awaiting the Jackson Hole seminar for clues about the Federal Reserve's timetable for tapering its $120 billion monthly bond purchase program. The event takes place on Thursdays and Fridays. The Federal Reserve had originally decided to hold its meetings in a hybrid of virtual and in-person formats, but last Friday decided to go entirely virtual given the rising risk of the virus.</strong></p><p><strong>Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will discuss the economic outlook at the meeting, and traders will carefully analyze his remarks for clues about the timing and pace of policy tightening. Powell has so far downplayed the impact of the Delta incident.</strong></p><p>Nomura Securities analyst Amemiya said in a report that Chairman Powell's speech will be titled \"Economic Outlook,\" \"which may suggest that his speech may focus more on the short term.\"</p><p>Amemiya added, “Given the recently released deteriorating data and the pandemic situation, we see some of the risks Powell is concerned about are increased uncertainty due to the latest surge in COVID-19 cases.” “At the very least, we believe recent comments from Fed officials support our view that the Fed will announce a tapering of its bond purchases in December, although the FOMC tends to announce it in November before its July meeting.”</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MTU\">MUFG Financial</a>In a report, the group's strategists stated, \"Risk aversion will support the dollar. While a cautious Federal Reserve should pare the dollar's gains, given the rising risk of COVID-19, we need to make some adjustments to our year-end foreign exchange forecasts to reflect a reduction in the dollar's depreciation.\"</p><p>As the dollar weakened, market concerns that the worsening COVID-19 pandemic could hinder global economic growth lingered, boosting gold prices.</p><p><strong>Earlier in the day, spot gold broke through the $1,800 mark, hitting a daily high of $1,806.37, up $30 from the daily low.</strong></p><p><img oldsrc=\"W020210824062902511119.png\" src=\"https://www.fx168.com/all/2108/W020210824062902511119.png\"/></p><p>(30-minute spot gold chart, source: FX168)</p><p>the US Dollar Index fell 0.3%, retreating from last week's nine-and-a-half-month high, sending gold prices down among other currency holders.</p><p>“The slight weakening of the dollar offset the impact of rising yields and supported gold prices,” said Ole Hansen, an analyst at Saxo Bank.</p><p>\"In the short term, we don't expect much to change because we are waiting for Jackson Hole to get an indication of whether the Federal Reserve is moving towards tapering or whether the latest virus outbreak has put the brakes on those expectations.\"</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>Analysts said in a research report that gold prices will continue to \"moderately rise\" due to a weaker dollar and recovering demand in emerging markets.</p><p>\"However, for gold to rise significantly, widespread safe-haven events, such as the resurgence of inflation concerns, would be necessary, which would trigger demand for defensive inflation hedges,\" they said.</p><p>Oil prices jumped, ending their worst seven-day losing streak since 2019, as the dollar weakened and traders believed the recent sell-off was excessive.</p><p><strong>The price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures, the benchmark for U.S. crude oil, is currently up $3.65 to trade at $65.79 per barrel, a gain of 5.87%. Earlier that day, oil prices rose more than 6% to an intraday high of $66.00 a barrel, marking their best single-day gain since November of last year.</strong></p><p><img oldsrc=\"W020210824062902653862.png\" src=\"https://www.fx168.com/all/2108/W020210824062902653862.png\"/></p><p>(30-minute chart of WTI crude oil futures, source: FX168)</p><p>This sharp rise marks the beginning of an improvement for the contract from last week's nearly 9% decline, marking its worst weekly performance since October 2020 and the second negative growth in three weeks. WTI crude oil closed at its lowest level since May 20 last Friday.</p><p>On Monday, international benchmark Brent crude oil prices rose 5% to $68.38 a barrel, a gain of $3.20, after hitting their worst level since October 2020 in a week.</p><p>Blue Line Futures analysts pointed out: \"The news of zero new cases in China undoubtedly provides a tailwind, as it adds a glimmer of hope at the end of the COVID-19 tunnel and brings a breath of fresh air to the demand landscape.\" \"Furthermore, the US dollar has fallen from its recent highs, providing broad support for the commodity market.\"</p><p>Previously, with the spread of the Delta variant of the novel coronavirus, fears of slowing demand led to a new round of lockdowns in countries such as Japan and New Zealand, causing oil prices to fall. In addition, weak economic data from China, the world's largest crude oil importer, has also put pressure on oil prices. The latest U.S. inventory report also shows that gasoline inventories have increased, and U.S. producers have also increased their production.</p><p>But some Wall Street firms said the sell-off looked a bit excessive.</p><p>Commerzbank analysts pointed out: \"We believe that price weakness is excessive and that this is more related to the psychology of market participants than to the deterioration of fundamental data.\"</p><p>U.S. stocks rose in early trading on Monday after a volatile week as investors focused on key events that the Federal Reserve might hint at tapering its stimulus program.</p><p><strong>The Dow Jones rose 300 points, or 0.8%. The S&P 500 rose 1.0%, and the Nasdaq Composite Index rose 1.6%.</strong></p><p><img oldsrc=\"W020210824062902827490.png\" src=\"https://www.fx168.com/all/2108/W020210824062902827490.png\"/></p><p>(Image source: CNBC)</p><p>Major stock indexes have begun to rebound after a week of declines as investors grow concerned that the Federal Reserve's potential withdrawal of monetary stimulus could slow the economic recovery.</p><p>The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1.1% last week, and the S&P 500 index fell nearly 0.6%, ending a two-week rally. The Nasdaq index, which is dominated by technology stocks, fell 0.7% last week.</p><p>\"We suspect that upcoming monetary policy changes, shifts in growth and value, and the upward trajectory of COVID-19 cases are challenging investor confidence,\" said Craig Johnson, technology market strategist at Piper Sandler, in a report.</p><p>Major stock indices are expected to rise slightly in August. So far this month, the S&P 500 is up 1.1%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 0.5% and the Nasdaq Composite is up 0.3%.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UBS\">UBS</a>Rod von Lipsey, managing director of Private Wealth Management, said, \"August has always been a volatile month for the market, and this year is no exception. Investors are currently very worried.\"</p><p>\"The rise in COVID-19 cases and the downward spiral in Afghanistan are creating a crisis of confidence at a time when many investors are on vacation.\"</p><p></div><div><div><ul><li>dollar</li><li>gold</li><li>U.S. stock market</li><li>crude oil</li><li>Federal Reserve</li><li>Powell</li><li>Existing house sales</li><li>US PMI</li></ul></div><div><div><div>share</div><div><div></div></div></div><div></div></div></div></div></body></html></p>","source":"fxdaily_fut","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>A multi-headed carnival! Is the Federal Reserve in a dilemma? The US dollar plummeted, triggering a \"chorus of gains\" in financial markets.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nA multi-headed carnival! Is the Federal Reserve in a dilemma? The US dollar plummeted, triggering a \"chorus of gains\" in financial markets.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">FX168</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-24 01:45</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><body><div><div>FX168 Financial News Agency (North America) reported that the US Dollar Index continued to decline during US trading on Monday (August 23), hitting a daily low of 93.01, as profit-taking triggered by market concerns about the direction of US monetary policy. The decline in the US dollar and concerns caused by the COVID-19 pandemic boosted gold prices, with spot gold finally breaking through the $1,800 mark, up $30 from its daily low. The crude oil market was boosted by a weaker dollar and zero new confirmed cases in China, with US WTI crude oil rising sharply by 6%. All three major U.S. stock indexes rose, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average up 300 points, or 0.8%, and the Nasdaq Composite up 1.6%. As the COVID-19 pandemic continues to surge, the Federal Reserve will hold its annual seminar later this week in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's economic outlook speech and the timing of reducing quantitative easing have attracted much attention.</p><p><strong>Data released intraday in the United States is mixed: US August<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MRKT\">Markit</a>The preliminary reading of the services PMI came in at 55.2, a new low since December last year. The preliminary U.S. manufacturing PMI for August fell to 61.2 from 63.4 in July.</strong></p><p>The agency commented that U.S. business activity continued to slow, with growth slowing to an eight-month low in August amid raw material shortages, labor shortages, and rising COVID-19 cases. The decline in the PMI this month highlights the extent to which supply chain disruptions are hitting companies that are already struggling to meet demand. Service providers and manufacturers continue to face challenges in attracting workers and obtaining supplies.</p><p><strong>However, another piece of data released later performed strongly: U.S. existing home sales in July were 5.99 million, compared to the expected 5.81 million and the previous value revised to 5.87 million.</strong></p><p>According to analysts, U.S. existing home sales increased for the second consecutive month in July, as home prices fell from the previous month's record level due to a moderate improvement in inventory. The increase in sales suggests that this year's downward trend in sales may have ended, based on last year's 14-year high.</p><p>The dollar fell across the board on Monday, after recording its biggest weekly gain in more than two months last week, as profit-taking triggered concerns about the direction of U.S. monetary policy.</p><p>Higher-risk currencies such as the Australian dollar, Norwegian krone, and Canadian dollar were the main beneficiaries of the weakening dollar, all of which rose by more than 0.5%.</p><p>the US Dollar Index hit a nine-month high last week, up nearly 5% from its May low, as investors further bet that the Federal Reserve will begin tapering its pandemic-era stimulus policies ahead of Europe and Japan.</p><p><strong>In U.S. trading, the the US Dollar Index, which measures the dollar's performance against other major currencies, fell nearly 0.5% to 93.01, after hitting a high of 93.73 last Friday, its highest level since early November.</strong></p><p><img oldsrc=\"W020210824062902363823.png\" src=\"https://www.fx168.com/all/2108/W020210824062902363823.png\"/></p><p>(the US Dollar Index 30-minute chart, source: FX168)</p><p><strong>But Dallas Fed President Kaplan said last Friday that he might reconsider whether it was necessary to start scaling back bond purchases ahead of schedule if the virus damages the economy. Kaplan is a well-known hawk.</strong></p><p><strong>Kaplan was the first Federal Reserve official to suggest that tapering should take place as soon as possible, and his views indicate that the Fed's hawks are wavering ahead of the Jackson Hole meeting.</strong></p><p>“Kaplan said he might adjust his view on asset purchases if Delta variant cases continue to rise, so the Fed’s dovish rhetoric weighed on the dollar, as rising concerns about Delta were detrimental to the dollar,” said a trader at a Japanese bank.</p><p>Some analysts believe that further spread of the variant could derail the Federal Reserve's plans to scale back its pandemic-era stimulus program by the end of the year.</p><p><strong>Traders are eagerly awaiting the Jackson Hole seminar for clues about the Federal Reserve's timetable for tapering its $120 billion monthly bond purchase program. The event takes place on Thursdays and Fridays. The Federal Reserve had originally decided to hold its meetings in a hybrid of virtual and in-person formats, but last Friday decided to go entirely virtual given the rising risk of the virus.</strong></p><p><strong>Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will discuss the economic outlook at the meeting, and traders will carefully analyze his remarks for clues about the timing and pace of policy tightening. Powell has so far downplayed the impact of the Delta incident.</strong></p><p>Nomura Securities analyst Amemiya said in a report that Chairman Powell's speech will be titled \"Economic Outlook,\" \"which may suggest that his speech may focus more on the short term.\"</p><p>Amemiya added, “Given the recently released deteriorating data and the pandemic situation, we see some of the risks Powell is concerned about are increased uncertainty due to the latest surge in COVID-19 cases.” “At the very least, we believe recent comments from Fed officials support our view that the Fed will announce a tapering of its bond purchases in December, although the FOMC tends to announce it in November before its July meeting.”</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MTU\">MUFG Financial</a>In a report, the group's strategists stated, \"Risk aversion will support the dollar. While a cautious Federal Reserve should pare the dollar's gains, given the rising risk of COVID-19, we need to make some adjustments to our year-end foreign exchange forecasts to reflect a reduction in the dollar's depreciation.\"</p><p>As the dollar weakened, market concerns that the worsening COVID-19 pandemic could hinder global economic growth lingered, boosting gold prices.</p><p><strong>Earlier in the day, spot gold broke through the $1,800 mark, hitting a daily high of $1,806.37, up $30 from the daily low.</strong></p><p><img oldsrc=\"W020210824062902511119.png\" src=\"https://www.fx168.com/all/2108/W020210824062902511119.png\"/></p><p>(30-minute spot gold chart, source: FX168)</p><p>the US Dollar Index fell 0.3%, retreating from last week's nine-and-a-half-month high, sending gold prices down among other currency holders.</p><p>“The slight weakening of the dollar offset the impact of rising yields and supported gold prices,” said Ole Hansen, an analyst at Saxo Bank.</p><p>\"In the short term, we don't expect much to change because we are waiting for Jackson Hole to get an indication of whether the Federal Reserve is moving towards tapering or whether the latest virus outbreak has put the brakes on those expectations.\"</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>Analysts said in a research report that gold prices will continue to \"moderately rise\" due to a weaker dollar and recovering demand in emerging markets.</p><p>\"However, for gold to rise significantly, widespread safe-haven events, such as the resurgence of inflation concerns, would be necessary, which would trigger demand for defensive inflation hedges,\" they said.</p><p>Oil prices jumped, ending their worst seven-day losing streak since 2019, as the dollar weakened and traders believed the recent sell-off was excessive.</p><p><strong>The price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures, the benchmark for U.S. crude oil, is currently up $3.65 to trade at $65.79 per barrel, a gain of 5.87%. Earlier that day, oil prices rose more than 6% to an intraday high of $66.00 a barrel, marking their best single-day gain since November of last year.</strong></p><p><img oldsrc=\"W020210824062902653862.png\" src=\"https://www.fx168.com/all/2108/W020210824062902653862.png\"/></p><p>(30-minute chart of WTI crude oil futures, source: FX168)</p><p>This sharp rise marks the beginning of an improvement for the contract from last week's nearly 9% decline, marking its worst weekly performance since October 2020 and the second negative growth in three weeks. WTI crude oil closed at its lowest level since May 20 last Friday.</p><p>On Monday, international benchmark Brent crude oil prices rose 5% to $68.38 a barrel, a gain of $3.20, after hitting their worst level since October 2020 in a week.</p><p>Blue Line Futures analysts pointed out: \"The news of zero new cases in China undoubtedly provides a tailwind, as it adds a glimmer of hope at the end of the COVID-19 tunnel and brings a breath of fresh air to the demand landscape.\" \"Furthermore, the US dollar has fallen from its recent highs, providing broad support for the commodity market.\"</p><p>Previously, with the spread of the Delta variant of the novel coronavirus, fears of slowing demand led to a new round of lockdowns in countries such as Japan and New Zealand, causing oil prices to fall. In addition, weak economic data from China, the world's largest crude oil importer, has also put pressure on oil prices. The latest U.S. inventory report also shows that gasoline inventories have increased, and U.S. producers have also increased their production.</p><p>But some Wall Street firms said the sell-off looked a bit excessive.</p><p>Commerzbank analysts pointed out: \"We believe that price weakness is excessive and that this is more related to the psychology of market participants than to the deterioration of fundamental data.\"</p><p>U.S. stocks rose in early trading on Monday after a volatile week as investors focused on key events that the Federal Reserve might hint at tapering its stimulus program.</p><p><strong>The Dow Jones rose 300 points, or 0.8%. The S&P 500 rose 1.0%, and the Nasdaq Composite Index rose 1.6%.</strong></p><p><img oldsrc=\"W020210824062902827490.png\" src=\"https://www.fx168.com/all/2108/W020210824062902827490.png\"/></p><p>(Image source: CNBC)</p><p>Major stock indexes have begun to rebound after a week of declines as investors grow concerned that the Federal Reserve's potential withdrawal of monetary stimulus could slow the economic recovery.</p><p>The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1.1% last week, and the S&P 500 index fell nearly 0.6%, ending a two-week rally. The Nasdaq index, which is dominated by technology stocks, fell 0.7% last week.</p><p>\"We suspect that upcoming monetary policy changes, shifts in growth and value, and the upward trajectory of COVID-19 cases are challenging investor confidence,\" said Craig Johnson, technology market strategist at Piper Sandler, in a report.</p><p>Major stock indices are expected to rise slightly in August. So far this month, the S&P 500 is up 1.1%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 0.5% and the Nasdaq Composite is up 0.3%.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UBS\">UBS</a>Rod von Lipsey, managing director of Private Wealth Management, said, \"August has always been a volatile month for the market, and this year is no exception. Investors are currently very worried.\"</p><p>\"The rise in COVID-19 cases and the downward spiral in Afghanistan are creating a crisis of confidence at a time when many investors are on vacation.\"</p><p></div><div><div><ul><li>dollar</li><li>gold</li><li>U.S. stock market</li><li>crude oil</li><li>Federal Reserve</li><li>Powell</li><li>Existing house sales</li><li>US PMI</li></ul></div><div><div><div>share</div><div><div></div></div></div><div></div></div></div></div></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://www.fx168.com/all/2108/5289476.shtml\">FX168</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://www.fx168.com/all/2108/W020210824062913689736.jpg","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF博时","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares",".DJI":"道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF","DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares","OEX":"标普100"},"source_url":"https://www.fx168.com/all/2108/5289476.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2161772849","content_text":"FX168财经报社(北美)讯 周一(8月23日)美市盘中，美元指数持续走低，并刷新日低至93.01，因市场对美国货币政策方向的疑虑引发获利回吐；美元回落以及新冠疫情肆虐引发的担忧情绪提振了黄金，现货黄金终于突破1800美元大关，较日低拉升30美元；原油市场则受到美元走软以及中国零新增确诊病例的提振，美国WTI原油大幅上涨6%；美股三大股指齐涨，其中道指上涨300点或0.8%，纳指则上涨1.6%。在新冠疫情持续反扑之际，美联储将于本周稍晚在怀俄明州杰克逊霍尔举行年度研讨会。美联储主席鲍威尔的经济展望演讲和缩减量化宽松的时间等备受关注。美国日内公布的数据良莠不齐：美国8月Markit服务业PMI初值录得55.2，创去年12月以来新低。 美国8月份制造业PMI初值从7月份的63.4降至61.2。机构评论称，美国企业活动继续放缓，在原材料短缺、劳动力短缺和新冠病例增加的背景下，8月份的增长放缓至八个月低点。本月PMI的回落凸显出供应链中断对已经难以满足需求的企业的打击程度。服务供应商和制造商继续面临吸引工人和获得供应的挑战。不过随后公布的另一项数据表现强劲：美国7月成屋销售数据为599万户，预期581万户，前值修正为587万户。机构点评称，美国7月成屋销售连续第二个月增加，因库存温和改善，房价较前月纪录水准回落。销售额的增长表明，从去年的14年高点来看，今年的销售额下降趋势可能已经结束。美元周一全线下跌，上周录得逾两个月来最大单周升幅，因对美国货币政策方向的疑虑引发获利回吐。澳元、挪威克朗和加元等风险较高的货币是美元走软的主要受益者，这些货币的涨幅均超过了0.5%。美元指数上周触及九个月高点，较5月低点上涨近5%，因投资者进一步押注美联储将先于欧洲和日本开始缩减疫情时期的刺激政策。美市盘中，衡量美元兑其他主要货币表现的美元指数下跌近0.5%，至93.01，上周五兴触及93.73高点，为自去年11月初以来的最高水平。（美元指数30分钟走势图，来源：FX168）但达拉斯联储主席卡普兰上周五表示，如果病毒损害经济，他可能会重新考虑是否有必要提前开始缩减购债规模。卡普兰是知名鹰派人士。卡普兰是第一个表示应该尽早缩债的美联储官员，其看法表明在杰克逊霍尔会议召开前，美联储鹰派有所动摇。“卡普兰表示，如果德尔塔变种病例持续增加，他可能调整对资产购买的看法，因此美联储的鸽派言论打压美元，因对德尔塔的担忧升温对美元不利，”一家日本银行的交易员称。一些分析师认为，该变体的进一步扩散可能会破坏美联储在年底前缩减其大流行时期刺激计划的计划。交易员正急切地等待杰克逊霍尔研讨会，以寻找美联储缩减每月1200亿美元债券购买计划时间表的线索。该活动在周四和周五进行。美联储原本决定以虚拟和现场混合的方式举行会议，但鉴于病毒风险不断上升，上周五决定全部采用虚拟方式。美联储主席鲍威尔将在会议上讨论经济前景，交易商将仔细分析他的讲话，以寻求有关政策收紧时机和步伐的线索。鲍威尔迄今一直在淡化德尔塔事件的影响。野村证券分析师Amemiya在一份报告中称，鲍威尔主席的演讲将以“经济展望”为题，“可能暗示他的演讲可能更注重短期”。Amemiya补充说:“鉴于最近公布的数据的恶化和大流行形势，我们看到鲍威尔关注的一些风险是，由于最新的新冠病例激增，不确定性增加。”“至少，我们认为美联储官员最近的言论支持了我们的观点，即美联储将在12月宣布缩减购债规模，尽管FOMC倾向于在7月会议之前在11月宣布。”三菱日联金融集团策略师在一份报告中称，“风险规避将支撑美元。尽管谨慎的美联储应缩小美元的涨幅，但鉴于新冠肺炎风险上升，我们需要对年底外汇预测进行一些调整，以显示美元贬值幅度减小。”随着美元回落，市场对新冠肺炎疫情加剧可能阻碍全球经济增长的担忧挥之不去，金价受到提振上涨。日内稍早，现货金冲破1800美元大关，刷新日高至1806.37美元，较日低拉升30美元。（现货黄金30分钟走势图，来源：FX168）美元指数下跌0.3%，从上周九个半月的高点回落，令其他货币持有者的黄金价格下跌。“美元小幅走软，抵消了收益率上升的影响，并扶助金价，”盛宝银行分析师Ole Hansen表示。“短期内，我们预计不会有太大的变化，因为我们正在等待杰克逊霍尔得到一个迹象，即美联储是否正走向缩减规模，或者最新的病毒爆发是否已经给这些预期踩了刹车。”高盛分析师在一份研究报告中表示，由于美元走弱和新兴市场需求复苏，金价将继续“温和走高”。“但黄金若要大幅走高，就必须出现普遍的避险事件，例如通胀担忧卷土重来，这将引发对防御性通胀对冲的需求，”他们表示。油价跳涨，结束了自2019年以来原油价格最糟糕的连续7天下跌，原因是美元回落，交易员认为近期的抛售过度。美国原油基准西德克萨斯中质(WTI)原油期货价格现上涨3.65美元，交投于65.79美元/桶，涨幅5.87%。当天早些时候，油价一度上涨逾6%，触及66.00美元/桶的盘中高点，创下去年11月以来的最佳单日涨幅。（WTI原油期货30分钟走势图，来源：FX168）这一大幅上涨标志着该合约从上周下跌近9%的情况开始好转，这是自2020年10月以来最差的一周表现，也是三周来第二次出现负增长。WTI原油上周五收于5月20日以来的最低水平。周一，国际基准布伦特原油价格上涨了5%，至68.38美元/桶，涨幅为3.20美元，此前一周油价创下了自2020年10月以来的最差水平。蓝线期货分析师指出:“中国零新增病例的消息无疑提供了一股顺风，因为它在新冠疫情隧道的尽头增添了一丝曙光，给需求格局带来了一丝新鲜空气。”“此外，美元已从近期高点回落，为大宗商品市场提供了广泛支撑。”此前，随着新冠病毒德尔塔变种的传播，人们担心需求会放缓，导致日本和新西兰等国实施新一轮封锁，油价随之下跌。此外，作为全球最大原油进口国的中国疲弱的经济数据也给油价带来了压力。美国最新库存报告还显示，汽油库存增加，美国生产商的产量也有所增加。但一些华尔街公司表示，抛售看起来有些过头了。德国商业银行分析师指出:“我们认为价格疲软过度，并认为这更多地与市场参与者的心理有关，而不是与基本面数据的恶化有关。”美国股市周一早盘走高，此前美国股市经历了动荡的一周，投资者关注美联储可能暗示缩减刺激计划的关键事件。道琼斯指数上涨300点，涨幅0.8%。标准普尔500指数上涨1.0%，纳斯达克综合指数上涨1.6%。（图源：CNBC）由于投资者越来越担心美联储可能撤出货币刺激措施的举动可能会减缓经济复苏，主要股指在经历了一周的下跌后开始回升。道指上周下跌1.1%，标准普尔500指数下跌近0.6%，结束了连续两周的上涨势头。以科技股为主的纳斯达克指数上周下跌0.7%。Piper Sandler技术市场策略师Craig Johnson在一份报告中表示:“我们怀疑，即将到来的货币政策变化、增长与价值的转变以及新冠肺炎病例的上升轨迹，正在挑战投资者的信心。”8月份主要股指将小幅上涨。本月迄今，标准普尔500指数上涨了1.1%，而道指上涨了0.5%，纳斯达克指数上涨了0.3%。瑞银私人财富管理董事总经理Rod von Lipsey称，“8月历来是市场波动较大的月份，今年也不例外，投资者目前忧心重重。”“新冠肺炎病例的上升和阿富汗的螺旋式下降正在制造一场信心危机，而此时许多投资者正在度假。”\n\n\n\n\n\n                                                    美元\n                                                \n\n\n\n                                                    黄金\n                                                \n\n\n\n                                                    美国股市\n                                                \n\n\n\n                                                    原油\n                                                \n\n\n\n                                                    美联储\n                                                \n\n\n\n                                                    鲍威尔\n                                                \n\n\n\n                                                    成屋销售\n                                                \n\n\n\n                                                    美国PMI\n                                                \n\n\n\n\n\n分享","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.6,"513500":0.6,"PSQ":0.6,"DOG":0.6,".SPX":0.6,"SDOW":0.6,"IVV":0.6,".IXIC":1,"OEX":0.6,"QQQ":0.6,".DJI":1,"NQmain":0.6,"QID":0.6,"SSO":0.6,"UPRO":0.6,"SDS":0.6,"SPXU":0.6,"SPY":1,"UDOW":0.6,"SQQQ":0.6,"DDM":0.6,"DXD":0.6,"TQQQ":0.6,"DJX":0.6,"MNQmain":0.6,"QLD":0.6,"OEF":0.6,"ESmain":0.6,"SH":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4829,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}