VinHun personal page - To The Moon

VinHun

VinHun

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2021-06-29

Buy their share now..

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2021-09-17

$FUV 20210917 10.0 PUT(FUV)$????

2021-08-07

$First Solar(FSLR)$???look like wrong timing dy

2021-08-05

$SoFi Technologies Inc.(SOFI)$ya....finally up a bit...

2021-06-29

Still can buy

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2021-06-26

Good

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2021-06-25

?

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2022-03-08

🤑🤑🤑🤑🤑🤑🤑🤑🤑🤑🤑🤑🤑🤑🤑🤑

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2022-02-22

👍👍👍👍👍👍👍👍😁😁😁😁😁😁😁😁

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2021-09-10

$SoFi Technologies Inc.(SOFI)$is time to fry...

Go to Tiger App to see more news

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href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/CCEP\">$可乐企业(CCEP)$</a>🤑🤑🤑🤑🤑🤑🤑","listText":"<a 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20:56","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Netflix's stock price plummeted, and some people made $100,000 overnight. What can we learn from this?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1188997339","media":"格隆汇","summary":"亏到飞起，如之奈何？","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Netflix suddenly told a ghost story.</p><p>Netflix fell nearly 40% last night, closing down 35% at $226.20. With a trading volume of $30.2 billion, it ranked first among all stocks. The total market capitalization is only $100.4 billion.<b>Approximately $54.3 billion evaporated overnight, exceeding the combined market capitalization of the last seven companies in the S&P 500.</b></p><p>Other streaming companies were also affected by Netflix, with Warner Bros. and Roku falling 6%, Paramount down 8.6%, and Disney down 5.6%. The Nasdaq fell more than 1%, Google fell 1.5%, Amazon fell 2.6%, and Meta fell 7.8%.</p><p>Some people lost a fortune, while others made a fortune.<b>Last night, someone bought Netflix put options at a cost of $2,000 and made a profit of $100,000 overnight. Those who missed this wave don't need to worry. The time has passed, and it's better to retreat and weave a net than to stand by the pond and envy the fish. Let's take a moment to think about what we can learn from this ghost story told by Netflix.</b></p><p><i><b>01</b></i></p><p><b>A Dream in Ten Years</b></p><p>After Netflix's stock price plummeted, two Wall Street analysts became angry:<b>One was named Bill Ackerman, the other was Mike Patchett.</b></p><p>Ackerman himself is already quite well-known. He is the founder of the hedge fund Pershing Plaza Capital. As a legendary fund manager, he dominated Wall Street and once set a grand ambition to rival Buffett and lead Pershing Plaza to surpass Berkshire Hathaway. Unfortunately, he suffered a major setback at Netflix.</p><p>Pershing Plaza has three funds, and as of the end of last year, their holdings were mainly distributed in the consumer sector.</p><p>Of these, 30% are invested in audio and video media, such as UMG Evening Media and Universal Music; 26% invests in restaurants, such as Domino's Pizza and Chibo's Mexican BBQ; The company invests 15% in home improvement retail, primarily Lowe's, and also has a presence in real estate markets such as Howard Hughes, Fannie Mae, and Freddie Mac, as well as hotel operations such as Hilton.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/54e58488e3d4e818907f25cf41102581\" tg-width=\"935\" tg-height=\"878\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>(Source: Financial Report)</p><p>Ackerman started buying Netflix on January 21 this year, the same day Netflix plummeted by 22% at the beginning of the year. A week later, in a letter to investors, Ackerman stated that he had purchased 3.1 million Netflix shares within a few days.<b>Based on the stock price of around $400 at the time, it was worth approximately $1.24 billion.</b></p><p>Pershing Plaza manages a total of $21.5 billion, meaning that Netflix holds more than 10% of the shares, making Pershing Plaza one of Netflix's top 20 shareholders.</p><p>From then until early February, Netflix's stock price experienced a brief rise of about 15%, reaching $460 at one point. Then came more than two months of gradual decline, until yesterday, after a 35% plunge, Ackerman immediately announced that he would withdraw from his investment in Netflix, and Pershing Plaza subsequently cut its holdings in Netflix shares.</p><p>Two defaults in one quarter.<b>Between them, Ackerman and Pershing Place lost more than $400 million.</b>Barring any unforeseen circumstances, this should be the group of Netflix investors who suffered the most heavy losses.</p><p>In his annual report released by Pershing Plaza at the end of March, Ackerman confidently stated, \"Netflix's current valuation is significantly discounted compared to its intrinsic value because it has good quality and extraordinary growth potential.\"</p><p>However, Netflix's stock has nearly tripled in the three years since 2019, and Ackerman only came late this year to bet on this \"king of streaming,\" which inevitably raised suspicions of buying at the bottom after a sharp drop. Unfortunately, he bought at the mountainside.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/03282e32283f61434c5f144d9cbc067a\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Speculation is almost like gambling; naturally, one is willing to accept defeat.</b>。 Ackerman's failure is not surprising. He was once a well-known short seller on Wall Street, but 18 years after founding Pershing Plaza, he suffered a huge failure at Herbalife and then resolutely decided to give up short selling permanently.</p><p>Starting in late 2012, Ackerman shorted more than 20 million shares of the nutritional supplement company, and eventually announced a cut in his positions after five years, recording a loss of nearly $1 billion. At the end of 2012, Herbalife's stock price reached a high of around $24, and rose to a record high of $60 in 2018. In fact, a year later, Herbalife will fall to $20 again.</p><p>Under siege from bulls such as Soros and the \"Wolf of Wall Street\" Carl Icahn, Wall Street witnessed a \"Kill Bill\" battle in those two years, a battle so exciting that Hollywood made documentaries and movies about it. Ackerman's failure at Herbalife cannot be simply attributed to shortsightedness, but he probably wouldn't have suffered such a major setback if he hadn't publicly attacked Herbalife on a television program.</p><p>The failure at Herbalife seemed to frighten the legendary hedge fund manager, so he only lasted a quarter at Netflix before hastily withdrawing to stop the bleeding.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/15230ccb8312de66827ca4c644edd9d1\" tg-width=\"831\" tg-height=\"468\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Bill Ackerman (second from left)</p><p>In stark contrast to Ackerman is another well-known Wall Street analyst:<b>Patchett of Wedbush Securities.</b></p><p>Patchett, 66, called Netflix \"dog shit\" back when it was still running a CD rental business. Netflix went public in 2002 and transformed into a streaming service in 2007, with its stock price rising 2,700% over the past decade.</p><p>During this period, Patchett maintained his bearish view on Netflix without wavering. With this \"iron-headed skill,\" he gained considerable fame on Wall Street and even started a Twitch channel as a content creator, sharing his research on companies such as Netflix with his followers.</p><p>Ten years later, Netflix's performance finally confirmed Patchett's judgment. Compared to Ackerman's attitude of withdrawing within a quarter of entering the market, this is a stark contrast.</p><p>Patchett wasn't an unreasonable, mindless critic; he consistently maintained a rational and objective attitude when he was bearish on Netflix, even when Netflix transformed into the online video field in 2007.<b>They also gave the company a \"buy rating\".</b></p><p>Patchett's pessimism about Netflix has nothing to do with its business; on the contrary, he himself is very optimistic about the online video market. As early as 2011, it was predicted that traditional Hollywood studios would enter this market, and competition in the streaming field would become increasingly fierce.</p><p>That year, the North American annual box office was $10.2 billion, while the streaming market did not exceed $10 billion for the first time until 2017. This seemingly bold prediction was not finally confirmed until Disney announced the launch of a streaming service in 2019.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/545ff1bf6d2aef341c7c5a790614c069\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"420\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: Motion Picture Association of America</p><p>The prophecy for Netflix came true even later. In 2012, Netflix's annual revenue was $3.6 billion, and by 2021 it had approached $30 billion. Even with its rapid business growth, Patchett still believes that Netflix's valuation is in a bubble.</p><p><b>From its IPO in 2002 to its peak last year, Netflix's stock price has risen more than 500 times.</b>It ranks among the top ten companies in U.S. history in terms of stock price increases 18 years after going public.</p><p>Netflix's stock price performance this year has finally confirmed Patchett's foresight.</p><p><i><b>02</b></i></p><p><b>The next ten years</b></p><p>Since the beginning of the year, Netflix's stock price has fallen by as much as 62%, including a 21.8% plunge on January 21, a 35% drop yesterday, and a subsequent drop after the market opened, leaving the stock price at only $223, returning to the level at the beginning of 2018. In other words, it has wiped out all the benefits it has reaped over the past two years of the pandemic.</p><p>January 21 and April 20 coincided with the release of Netflix's Q4 2021 and Q1 2022 financial reports. In fact, in eight of the past nine fiscal quarters, Netflix experienced a sharp drop after releasing its earnings report. The reason is consistent with Patchett's view that competition in the streaming media field is fierce.</p><p>Specifically, looking at Netflix's financial report released yesterday, first-quarter revenue was $7.87 billion, a year-on-year increase of 9.8%; Net profit was $1.6 billion, down 6% year-on-year. It looks okay, but the key is the user growth data:<b>The net decrease in subscribers was 200,000, marking the first negative value since 2011.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3e8eb6aac48cf38c7be89411b90593c2\" tg-width=\"831\" tg-height=\"386\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: Financial Report</p><p>On January 21, Netflix plummeted 22% because its financial report predicted that the number of paying streaming subscribers would increase by 2.5 million in the first quarter, significantly lower than analysts' expectations of an increase of 6.26 million. It can be said that the \"net decrease of 200,000\" caught the entire market off guard. Therefore, yesterday's decline seems relatively moderate, and Netflix predicted in its financial report that...<b>Subscribers will continue to decrease by a net 2 million in the second quarter.</b></p><p>In a longitudinal comparison, Netflix added 8.28 million paid subscribers in the fourth quarter of last year, bringing its total annual increase to 18.2 million. In a horizontal comparison, Disney+ saw a 11.8 million subscriber increase in the first quarter of this year, surpassing Netflix's record of 8.28 million quarterly growth. With the addition of ESPN+ and Hulu, the platform added 17.4 million new subscribers overall; Paramount+ also added more than 7 million new users in the fourth quarter of last year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f33deb1f0708a9a54a13c2647a079800\" tg-width=\"831\" tg-height=\"400\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: Financial Report</p><p>From these data, it seems that we can conclude that Netflix's growth has reached a bottleneck, so the stock price crash seems to be reasonable. That's not actually the case; we need to look at it from two perspectives.</p><p><b>On the one hand, Netflix's stock price plummeted because the bubble was too large.</b>The source of the bubble is more influenced by external monetary factors than by internal operating factors.</p><p>The steepest period of Netflix's stock price movement occurred from the end of 2019 to the end of 2020, which aligned with the Nasdaq index's performance, due to the Federal Reserve's unbridled QE since the outbreak of the pandemic.</p><p>In 2020, the Federal Reserve purchased approximately 52% of new Treasury Bond, resulting in a money supply that supported fiscal spending that accounted for 61% of new U.S. M2. At the end of last year, the U.S. money supply increased by 24.9% year-on-year, while nominal GDP growth was only -2.3%, indicating that a large amount of money was absorbed by assets such as the stock market and real estate market.</p><p>Last week, the U.S. released inflation data for March showing that the CPI reached 8.5%, the highest level since 1981.<b>Gradually running out of control inflation is forcing the Federal Reserve to accelerate the pace of water tightening.</b>Powell hinted that a 50 basis point rate hike at the Fed's May policy meeting would be a signal.</p><p>Amid expectations of profit margins, US stocks naturally fluctuated and became uneasy. Technology stocks, which had surged in the past few years, were the first to begin to lose valuation. Coupled with Netflix's explosive earnings report, they became the first to be punctured.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/649b1b057590f044f6e615d1231f8891\" tg-width=\"831\" tg-height=\"460\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>On the other hand, this is why Netflix's growth has lagged behind that of other streaming competitors.</p><p><b>The advantages of traditional Hollywood studios in terms of content are concentrated in the accumulation of IP.</b>For example, Disney's regular three or four Marvel movie \"New Year's goods,\" as well as popular classic series such as Star Wars, Avatar, Pirates of the Caribbean, Princess, and Pixar animation.</p><p>In addition, Paramount also has classic IPs such as Star Trek, Transformers, Terminator, and Mission: Impossible; Warner Bros.' HBO Max has the DC series, which rivals Marvel's, as well as The Matrix, Harry Potter, Game of Thrones, The Big Bang Theory, and Friends, which it acquired from Netflix for over $400 million.</p><p>In comparison, Netflix seems to lack sufficient resources, but IP has never been Netflix's strength. Netflix's ability to dominate the streaming market for so many years stems from a different path:<b>\"Win with quantity, and quality is king.\"</b>。</p><p>In 2021, Netflix invested a staggering $17 billion in content production, releasing more than 70 movies throughout the year. In contrast, Disney, the most deep-pocketed of traditional studios, has invested only $2 billion and plans to release only 23 films. This reflects the difference in capital utilization efficiency:</p><p>The more valuable an IP is, the more time, financial, material, and human resources need to be invested. While the results of these resources may have a \"nuclear bomb\" effect when presented on a small screen, they will inevitably be somewhat excessive in terms of conversion efficiency.</p><p>Netflix's strategy seems more efficient: ensuring fresh content to viewers every week is undoubtedly a more attractive option, especially on the basis of guaranteeing quality—since 2018, Netflix has repeatedly broken its history of nominations and awards in the Emmy Awards for television series and the Oscars for film.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/38a832a96ca306bb35461caad1a31631\" tg-width=\"830\" tg-height=\"591\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>From the above analysis, it can be concluded that,<b>Netflix is currently undergoing a process of overall valuation decline in the US stock market, and the decline is expected to continue to widen in the short term.</b>However, Netflix remains the king of streaming, while Disney and others are in a phase of rapid growth. But the different approaches have allowed Netflix to maintain its market share.</p><p>Therefore, as long as Netflix finds new growth points, its business model will remain strong. This is also why Patchett has started to be bullish on Netflix after the recent sharp drop.</p><p><i><b>03</b></i></p><p><b>epilogue</b></p><p>Investing is not gambling. Compared to \"professionals\" who make a quick profit and run away, I trust the opinions of analysts who have studied a company for more than 10 years.</p><p>However, after so many years of rapid growth, finding new growth points is no easy feat. Netflix's current efforts mainly focus on two directions:</p><p><b>First, we need to tap into existing markets.</b>This includes launching low-priced subscription models with ads, a practice that is becoming popular in the streaming media market; Netflix is also raising subscription prices and trying to charge extra for users' account sharing behavior. Netflix is currently testing this new feature.</p><p><b>Second, we will open up incremental markets.</b>On the one hand, Netflix is developing other businesses, such as exploring the video game field. Since announcing its entry into the gaming market last November, Netflix has already launched five mobile games on its gaming platform.</p><p>On the other hand, we will continue to cultivate markets such as the Asia-Pacific and Latin America that have not yet been fully developed. Not to mention China, Netflix has opened an animation production base in Tokyo, Japan in the past two years, and has produced many popular works based on local tastes in South Korea, Thailand, and the United Kingdom.</p><p>To put it bluntly, as long as Netflix releases a \"Squid Game\" every now and then, who dares to say that it's not a good company?</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"gelonghui_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Netflix's stock price plummeted, and some people made $100,000 overnight. What can we learn from this?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNetflix's stock price plummeted, and some people made $100,000 overnight. What can we learn from this?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">格隆汇</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-04-21 20:56</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Netflix suddenly told a ghost story.</p><p>Netflix fell nearly 40% last night, closing down 35% at $226.20. With a trading volume of $30.2 billion, it ranked first among all stocks. The total market capitalization is only $100.4 billion.<b>Approximately $54.3 billion evaporated overnight, exceeding the combined market capitalization of the last seven companies in the S&P 500.</b></p><p>Other streaming companies were also affected by Netflix, with Warner Bros. and Roku falling 6%, Paramount down 8.6%, and Disney down 5.6%. The Nasdaq fell more than 1%, Google fell 1.5%, Amazon fell 2.6%, and Meta fell 7.8%.</p><p>Some people lost a fortune, while others made a fortune.<b>Last night, someone bought Netflix put options at a cost of $2,000 and made a profit of $100,000 overnight. Those who missed this wave don't need to worry. The time has passed, and it's better to retreat and weave a net than to stand by the pond and envy the fish. Let's take a moment to think about what we can learn from this ghost story told by Netflix.</b></p><p><i><b>01</b></i></p><p><b>A Dream in Ten Years</b></p><p>After Netflix's stock price plummeted, two Wall Street analysts became angry:<b>One was named Bill Ackerman, the other was Mike Patchett.</b></p><p>Ackerman himself is already quite well-known. He is the founder of the hedge fund Pershing Plaza Capital. As a legendary fund manager, he dominated Wall Street and once set a grand ambition to rival Buffett and lead Pershing Plaza to surpass Berkshire Hathaway. Unfortunately, he suffered a major setback at Netflix.</p><p>Pershing Plaza has three funds, and as of the end of last year, their holdings were mainly distributed in the consumer sector.</p><p>Of these, 30% are invested in audio and video media, such as UMG Evening Media and Universal Music; 26% invests in restaurants, such as Domino's Pizza and Chibo's Mexican BBQ; The company invests 15% in home improvement retail, primarily Lowe's, and also has a presence in real estate markets such as Howard Hughes, Fannie Mae, and Freddie Mac, as well as hotel operations such as Hilton.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/54e58488e3d4e818907f25cf41102581\" tg-width=\"935\" tg-height=\"878\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>(Source: Financial Report)</p><p>Ackerman started buying Netflix on January 21 this year, the same day Netflix plummeted by 22% at the beginning of the year. A week later, in a letter to investors, Ackerman stated that he had purchased 3.1 million Netflix shares within a few days.<b>Based on the stock price of around $400 at the time, it was worth approximately $1.24 billion.</b></p><p>Pershing Plaza manages a total of $21.5 billion, meaning that Netflix holds more than 10% of the shares, making Pershing Plaza one of Netflix's top 20 shareholders.</p><p>From then until early February, Netflix's stock price experienced a brief rise of about 15%, reaching $460 at one point. Then came more than two months of gradual decline, until yesterday, after a 35% plunge, Ackerman immediately announced that he would withdraw from his investment in Netflix, and Pershing Plaza subsequently cut its holdings in Netflix shares.</p><p>Two defaults in one quarter.<b>Between them, Ackerman and Pershing Place lost more than $400 million.</b>Barring any unforeseen circumstances, this should be the group of Netflix investors who suffered the most heavy losses.</p><p>In his annual report released by Pershing Plaza at the end of March, Ackerman confidently stated, \"Netflix's current valuation is significantly discounted compared to its intrinsic value because it has good quality and extraordinary growth potential.\"</p><p>However, Netflix's stock has nearly tripled in the three years since 2019, and Ackerman only came late this year to bet on this \"king of streaming,\" which inevitably raised suspicions of buying at the bottom after a sharp drop. Unfortunately, he bought at the mountainside.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/03282e32283f61434c5f144d9cbc067a\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Speculation is almost like gambling; naturally, one is willing to accept defeat.</b>。 Ackerman's failure is not surprising. He was once a well-known short seller on Wall Street, but 18 years after founding Pershing Plaza, he suffered a huge failure at Herbalife and then resolutely decided to give up short selling permanently.</p><p>Starting in late 2012, Ackerman shorted more than 20 million shares of the nutritional supplement company, and eventually announced a cut in his positions after five years, recording a loss of nearly $1 billion. At the end of 2012, Herbalife's stock price reached a high of around $24, and rose to a record high of $60 in 2018. In fact, a year later, Herbalife will fall to $20 again.</p><p>Under siege from bulls such as Soros and the \"Wolf of Wall Street\" Carl Icahn, Wall Street witnessed a \"Kill Bill\" battle in those two years, a battle so exciting that Hollywood made documentaries and movies about it. Ackerman's failure at Herbalife cannot be simply attributed to shortsightedness, but he probably wouldn't have suffered such a major setback if he hadn't publicly attacked Herbalife on a television program.</p><p>The failure at Herbalife seemed to frighten the legendary hedge fund manager, so he only lasted a quarter at Netflix before hastily withdrawing to stop the bleeding.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/15230ccb8312de66827ca4c644edd9d1\" tg-width=\"831\" tg-height=\"468\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Bill Ackerman (second from left)</p><p>In stark contrast to Ackerman is another well-known Wall Street analyst:<b>Patchett of Wedbush Securities.</b></p><p>Patchett, 66, called Netflix \"dog shit\" back when it was still running a CD rental business. Netflix went public in 2002 and transformed into a streaming service in 2007, with its stock price rising 2,700% over the past decade.</p><p>During this period, Patchett maintained his bearish view on Netflix without wavering. With this \"iron-headed skill,\" he gained considerable fame on Wall Street and even started a Twitch channel as a content creator, sharing his research on companies such as Netflix with his followers.</p><p>Ten years later, Netflix's performance finally confirmed Patchett's judgment. Compared to Ackerman's attitude of withdrawing within a quarter of entering the market, this is a stark contrast.</p><p>Patchett wasn't an unreasonable, mindless critic; he consistently maintained a rational and objective attitude when he was bearish on Netflix, even when Netflix transformed into the online video field in 2007.<b>They also gave the company a \"buy rating\".</b></p><p>Patchett's pessimism about Netflix has nothing to do with its business; on the contrary, he himself is very optimistic about the online video market. As early as 2011, it was predicted that traditional Hollywood studios would enter this market, and competition in the streaming field would become increasingly fierce.</p><p>That year, the North American annual box office was $10.2 billion, while the streaming market did not exceed $10 billion for the first time until 2017. This seemingly bold prediction was not finally confirmed until Disney announced the launch of a streaming service in 2019.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/545ff1bf6d2aef341c7c5a790614c069\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"420\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: Motion Picture Association of America</p><p>The prophecy for Netflix came true even later. In 2012, Netflix's annual revenue was $3.6 billion, and by 2021 it had approached $30 billion. Even with its rapid business growth, Patchett still believes that Netflix's valuation is in a bubble.</p><p><b>From its IPO in 2002 to its peak last year, Netflix's stock price has risen more than 500 times.</b>It ranks among the top ten companies in U.S. history in terms of stock price increases 18 years after going public.</p><p>Netflix's stock price performance this year has finally confirmed Patchett's foresight.</p><p><i><b>02</b></i></p><p><b>The next ten years</b></p><p>Since the beginning of the year, Netflix's stock price has fallen by as much as 62%, including a 21.8% plunge on January 21, a 35% drop yesterday, and a subsequent drop after the market opened, leaving the stock price at only $223, returning to the level at the beginning of 2018. In other words, it has wiped out all the benefits it has reaped over the past two years of the pandemic.</p><p>January 21 and April 20 coincided with the release of Netflix's Q4 2021 and Q1 2022 financial reports. In fact, in eight of the past nine fiscal quarters, Netflix experienced a sharp drop after releasing its earnings report. The reason is consistent with Patchett's view that competition in the streaming media field is fierce.</p><p>Specifically, looking at Netflix's financial report released yesterday, first-quarter revenue was $7.87 billion, a year-on-year increase of 9.8%; Net profit was $1.6 billion, down 6% year-on-year. It looks okay, but the key is the user growth data:<b>The net decrease in subscribers was 200,000, marking the first negative value since 2011.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3e8eb6aac48cf38c7be89411b90593c2\" tg-width=\"831\" tg-height=\"386\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: Financial Report</p><p>On January 21, Netflix plummeted 22% because its financial report predicted that the number of paying streaming subscribers would increase by 2.5 million in the first quarter, significantly lower than analysts' expectations of an increase of 6.26 million. It can be said that the \"net decrease of 200,000\" caught the entire market off guard. Therefore, yesterday's decline seems relatively moderate, and Netflix predicted in its financial report that...<b>Subscribers will continue to decrease by a net 2 million in the second quarter.</b></p><p>In a longitudinal comparison, Netflix added 8.28 million paid subscribers in the fourth quarter of last year, bringing its total annual increase to 18.2 million. In a horizontal comparison, Disney+ saw a 11.8 million subscriber increase in the first quarter of this year, surpassing Netflix's record of 8.28 million quarterly growth. With the addition of ESPN+ and Hulu, the platform added 17.4 million new subscribers overall; Paramount+ also added more than 7 million new users in the fourth quarter of last year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f33deb1f0708a9a54a13c2647a079800\" tg-width=\"831\" tg-height=\"400\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: Financial Report</p><p>From these data, it seems that we can conclude that Netflix's growth has reached a bottleneck, so the stock price crash seems to be reasonable. That's not actually the case; we need to look at it from two perspectives.</p><p><b>On the one hand, Netflix's stock price plummeted because the bubble was too large.</b>The source of the bubble is more influenced by external monetary factors than by internal operating factors.</p><p>The steepest period of Netflix's stock price movement occurred from the end of 2019 to the end of 2020, which aligned with the Nasdaq index's performance, due to the Federal Reserve's unbridled QE since the outbreak of the pandemic.</p><p>In 2020, the Federal Reserve purchased approximately 52% of new Treasury Bond, resulting in a money supply that supported fiscal spending that accounted for 61% of new U.S. M2. At the end of last year, the U.S. money supply increased by 24.9% year-on-year, while nominal GDP growth was only -2.3%, indicating that a large amount of money was absorbed by assets such as the stock market and real estate market.</p><p>Last week, the U.S. released inflation data for March showing that the CPI reached 8.5%, the highest level since 1981.<b>Gradually running out of control inflation is forcing the Federal Reserve to accelerate the pace of water tightening.</b>Powell hinted that a 50 basis point rate hike at the Fed's May policy meeting would be a signal.</p><p>Amid expectations of profit margins, US stocks naturally fluctuated and became uneasy. Technology stocks, which had surged in the past few years, were the first to begin to lose valuation. Coupled with Netflix's explosive earnings report, they became the first to be punctured.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/649b1b057590f044f6e615d1231f8891\" tg-width=\"831\" tg-height=\"460\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>On the other hand, this is why Netflix's growth has lagged behind that of other streaming competitors.</p><p><b>The advantages of traditional Hollywood studios in terms of content are concentrated in the accumulation of IP.</b>For example, Disney's regular three or four Marvel movie \"New Year's goods,\" as well as popular classic series such as Star Wars, Avatar, Pirates of the Caribbean, Princess, and Pixar animation.</p><p>In addition, Paramount also has classic IPs such as Star Trek, Transformers, Terminator, and Mission: Impossible; Warner Bros.' HBO Max has the DC series, which rivals Marvel's, as well as The Matrix, Harry Potter, Game of Thrones, The Big Bang Theory, and Friends, which it acquired from Netflix for over $400 million.</p><p>In comparison, Netflix seems to lack sufficient resources, but IP has never been Netflix's strength. Netflix's ability to dominate the streaming market for so many years stems from a different path:<b>\"Win with quantity, and quality is king.\"</b>。</p><p>In 2021, Netflix invested a staggering $17 billion in content production, releasing more than 70 movies throughout the year. In contrast, Disney, the most deep-pocketed of traditional studios, has invested only $2 billion and plans to release only 23 films. This reflects the difference in capital utilization efficiency:</p><p>The more valuable an IP is, the more time, financial, material, and human resources need to be invested. While the results of these resources may have a \"nuclear bomb\" effect when presented on a small screen, they will inevitably be somewhat excessive in terms of conversion efficiency.</p><p>Netflix's strategy seems more efficient: ensuring fresh content to viewers every week is undoubtedly a more attractive option, especially on the basis of guaranteeing quality—since 2018, Netflix has repeatedly broken its history of nominations and awards in the Emmy Awards for television series and the Oscars for film.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/38a832a96ca306bb35461caad1a31631\" tg-width=\"830\" tg-height=\"591\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>From the above analysis, it can be concluded that,<b>Netflix is currently undergoing a process of overall valuation decline in the US stock market, and the decline is expected to continue to widen in the short term.</b>However, Netflix remains the king of streaming, while Disney and others are in a phase of rapid growth. But the different approaches have allowed Netflix to maintain its market share.</p><p>Therefore, as long as Netflix finds new growth points, its business model will remain strong. This is also why Patchett has started to be bullish on Netflix after the recent sharp drop.</p><p><i><b>03</b></i></p><p><b>epilogue</b></p><p>Investing is not gambling. Compared to \"professionals\" who make a quick profit and run away, I trust the opinions of analysts who have studied a company for more than 10 years.</p><p>However, after so many years of rapid growth, finding new growth points is no easy feat. Netflix's current efforts mainly focus on two directions:</p><p><b>First, we need to tap into existing markets.</b>This includes launching low-priced subscription models with ads, a practice that is becoming popular in the streaming media market; Netflix is also raising subscription prices and trying to charge extra for users' account sharing behavior. Netflix is currently testing this new feature.</p><p><b>Second, we will open up incremental markets.</b>On the one hand, Netflix is developing other businesses, such as exploring the video game field. Since announcing its entry into the gaming market last November, Netflix has already launched five mobile games on its gaming platform.</p><p>On the other hand, we will continue to cultivate markets such as the Asia-Pacific and Latin America that have not yet been fully developed. Not to mention China, Netflix has opened an animation production base in Tokyo, Japan in the past two years, and has produced many popular works based on local tastes in South Korea, Thailand, and the United Kingdom.</p><p>To put it bluntly, as long as Netflix releases a \"Squid Game\" every now and then, who dares to say that it's not a good company?</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://www.gelonghui.com/p/522710\">格隆汇</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e2504f923ed712669cfb6da28ee56fea","relate_stocks":{"NFLX":"奈飞"},"source_url":"https://www.gelonghui.com/p/522710","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6b8fa6424aebe95f6781d04ef17a1852","article_id":"1188997339","content_text":"奈飞突然就讲了个鬼故事。昨夜奈飞一度跌近40%，收跌35%，报226.2美元。成交额302亿美元，位列全部股票之首。总市值只余1004亿美元，一夜之间蒸发约543亿美元，超过标普500指数排名最后七家公司的市值总和。其他流媒体公司也受到奈飞牵连，华纳、Roku跌6%，派拉蒙跌8.6%，迪士尼跌5.6%。纳斯达克指数跌超1%，谷歌跌1.5%，亚马逊跌2.6%，Meta跌7.8%。有人亏到飞起，当然也有人赚翻。昨晚有人买了奈飞看跌期权，2000美元的成本，一夜之间赚了10万美元。没赶上这波的朋友也不用心急，时机已过，临渊羡鱼不如退而结网。不妨暂且想一想，在奈飞讲的这个鬼故事身上，我们能学到点什么。01十年一梦奈飞暴跌之后，华尔街两名分析师火了：一位叫做比尔·阿克曼，另一位是麦克·帕契特。阿克曼本身的知名度其实已经很高，他是对冲基金潘兴广场资本的创始人，以传奇基金经理出身在华尔街叱咤风云，曾立下比肩巴菲特、带领潘兴广场赶超伯克希尔的宏愿，可惜在奈飞上栽了大跟头。潘兴广场旗下有三只基金，截至去年年底为止的持仓主要分布在消费板块。其中，30%投资在音视频媒体，比如UMG联播传媒和环球音乐；26%投资餐饮，比如达美乐披萨和奇波墨西哥烧烤；15%投资以劳氏公司为主的家装零售，另外在霍华德·休斯、房利美和房地美等房地产市场，希尔顿等酒店经营市场也有布局。（来源：财报）阿克曼从今年1月21日开始买入奈飞，也就是奈飞年初那波暴跌22%当天。一周后，阿克曼在致投资者信中表示几天内购买了310万股奈飞股票。按当时400美元左右的股价计算，大约价值12.4亿美元。潘兴广场总共管理资金215亿美元，也即是说奈飞所占的持仓份额超过10%，潘兴广场因此一举位列奈飞前20大股东。从那之后直到2月初，奈飞股价经历了一波15%左右的短暂上涨，一度涨到460美元。之后就是两个多月的阴跌，直到昨天暴跌35%后，阿克曼立刻宣布将退出对奈飞的投资，潘兴广场随即砍仓奈飞股份。一个季度、两度暴雷，来去之间，阿克曼和潘兴广场损失了4亿多美元。不出意外的话，应当是奈飞投资者里损失最惨重的一批。在3月底潘兴广场发布的年度报告里，阿克曼信誓旦旦地表示，“奈飞目前的估值与它的内在价值相比存在很大折扣，因为它具有良好的质量和非凡的增长潜力。”然而奈飞已经从2019年开始的三年内翻了将近3倍，阿克曼今年才姗姗来迟押注这只“流媒体之王”，不免有些暴跌之后抄底的嫌疑，可惜抄在了山腰。投机近乎赌博，自然愿赌服输。阿克曼会出现这样的失败并不令人意外，他曾经是华尔街盛名在外的大空头，但在创办潘兴广场18年之后在康宝莱上遭遇了巨大失败，随后毅然决定永久放弃做空。从2012年底开始，阿克曼做空了这家营养补充剂公司超过2000万股，最终在坚持5年后宣布砍仓，录得损失将近10亿美元。2012年底，康宝莱的股价最高在24美元左右，2018年涨到历史最高的60美元。其实一年之后，康宝莱就会再次跌到20美元。在索罗斯和“华尔街之狼”卡尔·伊坎等多头的围攻下，华尔街那两年上演了一场《Kill Bill》，这场大战精彩到被好莱坞拍摄了纪录片和电影。阿克曼在康宝莱的失败不能简单地归结为短视，但如果不是高调在电视节目里公开攻击康宝莱，恐怕也不会栽这么大的跟头。在康宝莱的失败似乎令这位传奇对冲基金经理成了惊弓之鸟，因此在奈飞上只坚持了一个季度，便匆忙抽身止血。比尔·阿克曼（左二）和阿克曼形成鲜明对比的，是另一位华尔街知名分析师：韦德布什证券公司的帕契特。帕契特今年66岁，早在奈飞还在经营租赁光盘业务时就将其称为“狗屎”。奈飞2002年上市，2007年向流媒体服务转型，股价在过去十年间上涨了2700%。在此期间，帕契特始终维持看空奈飞的观点不动摇，凭这一手“铁头功”在华尔街赢得了不小的名气，甚至在Twitch开设频道当起了UP主，和水友们分享自己对奈飞等公司的研究。10年之后，奈飞的表现终于证实了帕契特的判断。与阿克曼入场一个季度便鸣金收兵的态度相比，算是高下立判。帕契特并非不讲道理的无脑黑，在看空奈飞始终保持着理中客的态度，甚至在奈飞2007年转型网络视频领域时，还曾对这家公司给出“买入评级”。帕契特对奈飞的唱衰与其业务无关，相反，他本人对网络视频市场十分看好。早在2011年，就预言传统好莱坞制片厂将进入这个市场，流媒体领域的竞争将日趋激烈。那一年，北美年度票房为102亿美元，而流媒体市场规模到2017年才首次超过100亿美元。这个听起来相当大胆的预言，直到2019年迪士尼宣布推出流媒体服务，才终于被证实。来源：美国电影协会对奈飞的预言成真则要来得更晚一些。2012年，奈飞的年度营收为36亿美元，到2021年已经接近300亿美元，即使业务突飞猛进增长，帕契特仍然认为奈飞的估值存在泡沫：从2002年上市到去年为止的高点，奈飞的股价上涨超过500倍，在美国历史上所有企业上市18年后的股价涨幅中排名前十。今年以来，奈飞的股价表现终于证实了帕契特的先见之明。02下个十年年初至今，奈飞的跌幅高达62%，其中1月21日暴跌21.8%，另外就是昨天跌了35%，再加上盘后续跌，股价只余223美元，回到了2018年初的水平，即把疫情两年多以来吃到的红利，全部吐了个干净。1月21日和4月20日，正好是奈飞发布2021年四季度财报和2022年一季度财报的日子。事实上在过去九个财季中，奈飞在其中八个财季发布财报后出现大跌。原因与帕契特的观点相符，即流媒体领域的竞争激烈所致。具体来看奈飞昨天发布的财报，一季度营收78.7亿美元，同比增长9.8%；净利润16亿美元，同比下降6%。看起来还好，重点是用户增长数据：订阅用户净减少20万，是2011年来首次为负值。来源：财报1月21日奈飞大跌22%，就是因为财报中预计一季度流媒体付费用户数将增加250万，大幅低于分析师预期的增加626万，可以说“净减少20万”令全市场始料未及。这么看来昨天的跌幅还算温和，并且奈飞在财报中预计，第二季度订阅用户将继续净减少200万。纵向对比，奈飞去年四季度还新增订阅付费用户828万，全年新增1820万；横向对比，Disney+今年一季度订阅用户增长1180万，超过奈飞创下的单季度增长828万记录。再加上ESPN+和Hulu，平台整体新增订阅用户 1740 万人；派拉蒙+去年四季度的新增用户也超过700万。来源：财报从这些数据中，似乎可以得出奈飞增长到了瓶颈的结论，那么股价暴跌也好像在情理之中。其实并非如此，这要从两方面来看。一方面，奈飞股价暴跌的原因是泡沫过大。而泡沫的来源相比于内部经营因素，外部的货币因素影响要更大。奈飞股价走势最陡峭的一段出现在2019年底到2020年底，这与纳斯达克指数的走势一致，原因是美联储自疫情爆发以来肆无忌惮的QE：2020年，美联储购买了约52%的新增国债，由此支持财政支出形成的货币供应量占美国新增M2的61%。去年末，美国货币供应量同比增长24.9%，名义GDP增速反而只有-2.3%，这表明大量货币被股市和房地产市场等资产吸收。上周美国披露的3月份通胀数据显示CPI高达8.5%，续创1981年以来最高水平。逐渐失控的通胀逼迫美联储不得不加紧收水步伐，鲍威尔暗示在美联储5月政策会议上加息50个基点就是信号。收水预期之下，美股自然震荡不安，过去几年大涨的科技股率先开始杀估值，加上奈飞财报炸雷，于是成了第一个刺破的皮球。另一方面，是奈飞增长不及其他流媒体竞争对手的原因。好莱坞传统制片厂们本身在内容方面的优势，集中体现在对IP的积累上。比如迪士尼固定三四部的漫威电影“年货”，以及星战、阿凡达，加勒比海盗、公主和皮克斯动画等脍炙人口的经典系列。此外，派拉蒙也有《星际迷航》、《变形金刚》、《终结者》和《碟中谍》等经典IP；华纳旗下HBO Max则有对标漫威的DC系列，和《黑客帝国》、《哈利波特》，以及《权游》、《生活大爆炸》和从奈飞手里花4亿多美元抢回来的《老友记》。相比之下，奈飞似乎家底不够看，不过IP一向不是奈飞的强项，奈飞能在这么多年里称霸流媒体市场，走的是另外一条路，即“以量取胜，以质为王”。2021年，Netflix在内容制作上的投入高达170亿美元，全年推出70多部电影。相比之下，传统制片厂里最财大气粗的迪士尼只投入了20亿美元，计划推出电影只有23部。这就体现出了资金利用效率的差别：越有价值的IP，越需要投入相应的时间和财力、物力与人力资源，这些资源的结果最后呈现在小屏幕上确实有“核弹”效果，但在转化效率上势必有些过剩。奈飞的策略看起来更有效率：保证每周都有新鲜的内容向观众提供，无疑是更有吸引力的选项，尤其是在保证质量的基础上——从2018年开始，奈飞在电视剧领域的艾美奖和电影领域的奥斯卡奖方面，屡次打破提名和获奖历史。从以上分析中可以得出结论，奈飞正处于美股整体杀估值进程中，短期之内跌幅仍将继续扩大。不过，奈飞仍然是以前那个流媒体之王，迪士尼们处于快速增长阶段，但路线不同导致奈飞仍然能够保持市场占有率。因此，只要奈飞找到新的增长点，它的商业模式就仍然坚挺。这也是在近期大跌后，帕契特反而开始唱多奈飞的原因。03结语投资不是赌博，相比赚一票就溜，亏一波赶紧跑的“专业人士”，我更信赖对一家公司研究10年以上的分析师的看法。不过，在已经高速增长这么多年后，找到新的增长点谈何容易。奈飞目前的尝试主要有两个方向：一是挖掘存量市场。包括推出有广告的低价订阅模式，这种做法正在流媒体市场流行开来；还有上调订阅价格，并想办法从用户的账号共享行为中额外收费，目前奈飞正在测试这项新功能。二是打开增量市场。一方面开展其他业务，比如在视频游戏领域的探索，去年11月宣布进军游戏市场后，奈飞目前已经在游戏平台上线了五款手游。另一方面是继续耕耘尚未完全开发的亚太和拉美等市场。中国就不说了，奈飞这两年在日本开设东京都动画制作基地，在韩国、泰国、英国都根据当地口味拍了不少受欢迎的作品。说白了，只要奈飞隔一段时间就能出一部《鱿鱼游戏》，谁敢说这不是一家好公司？","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NFLX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2322,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9086583852,"gmtCreate":1650470187362,"gmtModify":1676534731673,"author":{"id":"3586925956765276","authorId":"3586925956765276","name":"VinHun","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/991b02c8cc322df6d25106ac403eff95","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3586925956765276","authorIdStr":"3586925956765276"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a 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their share now..","text":"Buy their share now..","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/159203607","repostId":"1127686108","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1527,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":884629317,"gmtCreate":1631888022239,"gmtModify":1676530662787,"author":{"id":"3586925956765276","authorId":"3586925956765276","name":"VinHun","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/991b02c8cc322df6d25106ac403eff95","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3586925956765276","authorIdStr":"3586925956765276"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FUV\">$FUV 20210917 10.0 PUT(FUV)$</a>????","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FUV\">$FUV 20210917 10.0 PUT(FUV)$</a>????","text":"$FUV 20210917 10.0 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