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KentChee
2021-07-28
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KentChee
2021-07-28
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How Plug Power Could Generate 7x Returns Over The Next Decade
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Interestingly, however, revenue did not surge initially because advertisers pulled back on marketing.</p>\n<p>As economies are reopening, advertisers are ramping up spending again, and Pinterest expects to reap the rewards. Management guided investors to look for robust revenue growth from the social media app. Expectations were further juiced when rival <b>Snap</b> (NYSE:SNAP) reported excellent quarterly earnings results last week that beat analysts' estimates.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F635216%2Fipad-home-feed.JPG&w=700&op=resize\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"466\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Pinterest is guiding investors to look for revenue growth of 105% when it reports second-quarter results. Image source: Getty Images.</span></p>\n<h2>Keeping up with the competition</h2>\n<p>Fueled by a rebound in marketer spending, Pinterest reported year-over-year revenue growth of 78% in its first quarter. As economies are reopening, marketers are boosting spending to get the word out that they are open for business. Still, the reopening of economies harms the growth in monthly active users (MAUs) and engagement on Pinterest.</p>\n<p>Management said this in the first-quarter press release: \"Starting in mid-March, the easing of pandemic restrictions slowed U.S. MAU growth and lowered engagement year over year as people spent less time online. In Q1, we saw good retention of the MAUs we gained during 2020, but we still don't know if or how long this retention will last.\"</p>\n<p>The company is not too pessimistic. Management guided for revenue growth of 105% in the second quarter from the same time last year. It will be similar to rival Snap's second-quarter revenue growth of 116% if it hits that target.</p>\n<p>But Pinterest is far behind Snap in average revenue per user (ARPU). While Snap's global ARPU was $2.74 in its first quarter, Pinterest's was $1.04. In its efforts to raise that figure, Pinterest is developing international markets, launching advertising features in Brazil last quarter, and expanding to Mexico in May. That focus can go a long way in closing the ARPU differential. Investors should look out for what management has to say on the progress of these international investments.</p>\n<p>Additionally, it will be important to look at MAU growth in the U.S. Snap reported sequential growth in a similar metric. If Pinterest can match that growth, it could be a nice surprise. Management guided investors that it did not expect to grow MAUs in the U.S.</p>\n<h2>What this could mean for investors</h2>\n<p>Analysts expect Pinterest to report revenue of $561.88 million and earnings per share of $0.13. The EPS figure will be a turnaround compared to the net loss of $0.07 reported in the same period a year ago. Meanwhile, the revenue figure would be 106.5% higher than the number reported last year.</p>\n<p>Pinterest's stock price is up 16% year to date after popping in sympathy with Snap's earnings results. If Pinterest meets or beats expectations for the current quarter and delivers better-than-expected guidance for the next quarter, its shares have room to go higher. Rival Snap's stock price is up over 50% in 2021, and its shares jumped more than 25% following the release of its second-quarter results.</p>","source":"fool_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Pinterest Q2 Earnings: Can It Meet High Expectations?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPinterest Q2 Earnings: Can It Meet High Expectations?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-27 22:56 GMT+8 <a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/07/27/pinterest-q2-earnings-can-it-meet-high-expectation/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Image-based social media app maker Pinterest (NYSE:PINS) experienced a surge in new customers and increasing engagement from existing customers at the onset of the pandemic. Interestingly, however, ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/07/27/pinterest-q2-earnings-can-it-meet-high-expectation/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PINS":"Pinterest, Inc."},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/07/27/pinterest-q2-earnings-can-it-meet-high-expectation/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2154915475","content_text":"Image-based social media app maker Pinterest (NYSE:PINS) experienced a surge in new customers and increasing engagement from existing customers at the onset of the pandemic. Interestingly, however, revenue did not surge initially because advertisers pulled back on marketing.\nAs economies are reopening, advertisers are ramping up spending again, and Pinterest expects to reap the rewards. Management guided investors to look for robust revenue growth from the social media app. Expectations were further juiced when rival Snap (NYSE:SNAP) reported excellent quarterly earnings results last week that beat analysts' estimates.\nPinterest is guiding investors to look for revenue growth of 105% when it reports second-quarter results. Image source: Getty Images.\nKeeping up with the competition\nFueled by a rebound in marketer spending, Pinterest reported year-over-year revenue growth of 78% in its first quarter. As economies are reopening, marketers are boosting spending to get the word out that they are open for business. Still, the reopening of economies harms the growth in monthly active users (MAUs) and engagement on Pinterest.\nManagement said this in the first-quarter press release: \"Starting in mid-March, the easing of pandemic restrictions slowed U.S. MAU growth and lowered engagement year over year as people spent less time online. In Q1, we saw good retention of the MAUs we gained during 2020, but we still don't know if or how long this retention will last.\"\nThe company is not too pessimistic. Management guided for revenue growth of 105% in the second quarter from the same time last year. It will be similar to rival Snap's second-quarter revenue growth of 116% if it hits that target.\nBut Pinterest is far behind Snap in average revenue per user (ARPU). While Snap's global ARPU was $2.74 in its first quarter, Pinterest's was $1.04. In its efforts to raise that figure, Pinterest is developing international markets, launching advertising features in Brazil last quarter, and expanding to Mexico in May. That focus can go a long way in closing the ARPU differential. Investors should look out for what management has to say on the progress of these international investments.\nAdditionally, it will be important to look at MAU growth in the U.S. Snap reported sequential growth in a similar metric. If Pinterest can match that growth, it could be a nice surprise. Management guided investors that it did not expect to grow MAUs in the U.S.\nWhat this could mean for investors\nAnalysts expect Pinterest to report revenue of $561.88 million and earnings per share of $0.13. The EPS figure will be a turnaround compared to the net loss of $0.07 reported in the same period a year ago. Meanwhile, the revenue figure would be 106.5% higher than the number reported last year.\nPinterest's stock price is up 16% year to date after popping in sympathy with Snap's earnings results. If Pinterest meets or beats expectations for the current quarter and delivers better-than-expected guidance for the next quarter, its shares have room to go higher. Rival Snap's stock price is up over 50% in 2021, and its shares jumped more than 25% following the release of its second-quarter results.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":354,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":803191784,"gmtCreate":1627427101348,"gmtModify":1703489556834,"author":{"id":"4087725729570920","authorId":"4087725729570920","name":"KentChee","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9724806d43a52587279a1b40ae10912a","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4087725729570920","authorIdStr":"4087725729570920"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good stock","listText":"Good stock","text":"Good stock","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/803191784","repostId":"1165178450","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":293,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":803194587,"gmtCreate":1627427267449,"gmtModify":1703489564600,"author":{"id":"4087725729570920","authorId":"4087725729570920","name":"KentChee","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9724806d43a52587279a1b40ae10912a","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4087725729570920","authorIdStr":"4087725729570920"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Say my name","listText":"Say my name","text":"Say my name","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/803194587","repostId":"2154915475","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":354,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":803191784,"gmtCreate":1627427101348,"gmtModify":1703489556834,"author":{"id":"4087725729570920","authorId":"4087725729570920","name":"KentChee","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9724806d43a52587279a1b40ae10912a","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4087725729570920","authorIdStr":"4087725729570920"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good stock","listText":"Good stock","text":"Good stock","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/803191784","repostId":"1165178450","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1165178450","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1627399581,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1165178450?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-27 23:26","market":"us","language":"en","title":"How Plug Power Could Generate 7x Returns Over The Next Decade","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1165178450","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nPLUG is a leading hydrogen fuel cell turnkey provider in North American and European market","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>PLUG is a leading hydrogen fuel cell turnkey provider in North American and European markets.</li>\n <li>The company boasts advanced technology and strong growth momentum.</li>\n <li>We outline the company's path to growing from a $15 billion market cap to a $100 billion market cap over the next decade.</li>\n <li>That said, PLUG still faces significant risks to its thesis that investors should keep in mind.</li>\n</ul>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/06bea0bef6d6ac8eab14c3fceb2cccae\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>JONGHO SHIN/iStock via Getty Images</span></p>\n<p>Plug Power (PLUG) is a leading hydrogen fuel cell turnkey provider in North American and European markets. The company boasts advanced technology and strong growth momentum which should propel it to significant appreciation over the long term. In this article we outline the company's path to growing from a $15 billion market cap to a $100 billion market cap (nearly 7x returns) over the next decade.</p>\n<p><b>#1. Addressable Market Potential</b></p>\n<p>With the massive tailwinds for green energy and ESG investing at the moment, the hydrogen fuel cell market is likely to enjoy strong growth momentum for many years to come.</p>\n<p>First and foremost, the Biden administration has executed an aggressive about-face from the previous administration in its disposition towards clean energy and fossil fuels. Between executive orders and rejoining the Paris Climate Accords, the U.S. Government is increasingly incentivizing green energy investment and consumption. The European Union and China are also increasingly headed in this direction.</p>\n<p>Second, the ESG investing movement has taken off to where it now accounts for an astonishing one-third of total assets under management in the United States. Given that so much capital is attracted to environmentally friendly investments, companies across the board - including in the hydrocarbon sector - are increasingly adopting policies that appeal to the environmentally-conscious investor.</p>\n<p>Third, the disruption and transformation of the automotive industry to reduce emissions is driving strong demand for new fuel technologies.</p>\n<p>Finally - largely due to the heavy investment and market demand - green technologies such as hydrogen fuel cells are seeing costs decline dramatically, making them increasingly competitive on the marketplace.</p>\n<p>All of this should lead to continued strong growth in the sector. In fact, U.S. Hydrogen demand is expected to be 17 million metric tons per year by 2030 and 63 million metric tons by 2050, which is pretty substantial growth from the 10 million metric tons consumed in the U.S. last year. Globally, the hydrogen generation industry is expected to reach $201 billion by 2025 and should continue to grow rapidly in the decades to follow similar to how it is expected to grow in the U.S.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0541b1fd23777a900f3e1a1102206d7b\" tg-width=\"824\" tg-height=\"514\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p><b>#2. Market Share Drivers</b></p>\n<p>We believe that PLUG has a strong chance at capturing a sizable portion of this massive addressable market for the following reasons.</p>\n<p>First and foremost, it has advanced technology and early mover advantages in the space. It owns numerous hydrogen energy systems including proton exchange membrane fuel cells, hybrid batteries, hydrogen storage, hydrogen dispensing, and fuel processing. Its flagship product is the electric vehicle focused GenDrive system that is complemented by their GenFuel and GenCare systems.</p>\n<p>Second of all, it has a foothold in both North America and Europe which means that it has significantly more growth potential than if it was solely focused on a single continent. In fact, North America and Europe are likely to be the leaders in Hydrogen adaptation for the foreseeable future, so PLUG is well-positioned to capture a significant portion of the global market share.</p>\n<p>Third, PLUG has strong growth momentum right now and is winning business from some of the biggest companies in the world, including Amazon (AMZN), Walmart (WMT), Home Depot (HD), and General Motors (GM) either currently using their products or expected to become customers in the near future. As a result, we expect the 76% year-over-year revenue growth in its most recent quarterly report (128% year-over-year growth in their fuel cell systems and related infrastructure segment) to be sustainable for the foreseeable future.</p>\n<p>In fact,analysts expect revenue to grow by 57% in 2022, which should push the company to EBITDA profitability.</p>\n<p><b>#3. Valuation</b></p>\n<p>While PLUG certainly operates in a hot industry and has numerous drivers that should enable it to capture significant market share, the company is also not cheap as it is currently running a loss.</p>\n<p>On the other hand, its EV/revenue figure is not outlandish given their growth runway as PLUG currently trades at 29.8x expected 2021 sales and 21x expected 2022 sales.</p>\n<p>In fact, with a product gross margin of 38% that expanded by a whopping 600 basis points in PLUG's most recent earnings release, its profitability potential is significant. Overall, PLUG's gross margin is expected to be a fairly weak 9.71% in 2021, but is expected to nearly double in 2022 to 18.93%. This is also a massive increase from 2017 when the gross margin was a mere 1.2%. The EBITDA margin is also expected to be a somewhat respectable 10.7% in 2022 as well.</p>\n<p>If PLUG can continue to leverage its strong technology and massive expected economies of scale in the coming years, we think it is reasonable for it to push gross margins to 30% and net margins to 20% by 2032. Meanwhile, if it can capture even just 3% of global hydrogen market share by 2032 and the global market reaches roughly $390 billion by then (it is expected to exceed $200 billion by 2025 and will likely be growing by around 10% per year at least for the foreseeable future), PLUG should be generating $11.7 billion in revenues by 2032. That would assume a 31.9% revenue CAGR between 2022 and 2032, which we also believe is quite reasonable given its aforementioned growth momentum and competitive strengths.</p>\n<p>At a 20% net margin, that would put its net earnings at over $2.3 billion in 2032, which would require a 42.7x price to earnings multiple to warrant a $100 billion market cap. Is this a reasonable multiple? It depends a lot on interest rates, but, given that the current S&P 500 (SPY) multiple is ~31x and PLUG's growth rate and growth runway will likely still be vastly superior to where the S&P 500's is today, it certainly does not seem too far-fetched to us.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/02cad870534d53e0544cd0389c837b1d\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p>\n<p><b>#4. Risks</b></p>\n<p>If this model pans out how we think it could, PLUG is a very attractive buy on the latest pullback.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e86493a3f4fcb61e8bec0de36f0f9b7\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p>\n<p>Of course, it assumes that PLUG will be able to overcome several risks, so investors should keep in mind that it remains a very speculative investment at this point.</p>\n<p>First and foremost, it will demand that PLUG can maintain highly competitive technology in a space that is almost certain to grow increasingly competitive in the years to come.</p>\n<p>Additionally, PLUG will need to balance investing in recruiting the best talent in the industry to sustain and increase its technological edge with investing in effective marketing while also avoiding diluting shareholders or running up a big debt burden. Given that it is not yet free cash flow positive, this could prove challenging in the short term. That said, their nearly $4.8 billion in cash and cash equivalents on hand should enable it to reach free cash flow positivity without stressing its balance sheet.</p>\n<p>Third, hydrogen power has not been without its critics over the years, most notably Tesla's (TSLA) founder and CEO Elon Musk. The wildly popular and visionary entrepreneur argued that using hydrogen to store energy can never be as efficient as storing electricity in a battery. In fact, he has gone so far as to say that using hydrogen fuel cells (which he calls \"fool cells\") to power vehicles is \"mind-bogglingly stupid.\" Obviously many individuals and corporations disagree with Musk's assessment and he has a clear incentive to try to discredit the technology, but this should still be viewed as a significant risk to keep an eye on. If hydrogen were to fall out of favor, it would significantly reduce the upside for PLUG and could even lead to permanent impairments from current levels if severe enough.</p>\n<p><b>Investor Takeaway</b></p>\n<p>PLUG is a competitively positioned company in a rapidly-growing industry. Not only that, but the industry's growth runway looks promising for many decades to come. With advanced technology, early mover advantages, and a foothold on the two most fertile continents for Hydrogen technology, PLUG should be able to generate strong revenue growth for a long time to come.</p>\n<p>Given our assumptions outlined in this article, we think that PLUG could very possibly achieve a $100 billion market cap in about a decade. This would represent a 667% total return (20.9% CAGR) over that span assuming no further share dilution.</p>\n<p>That said, PLUG is also far from a conservative sleep well at night stock and investors should keep in mind that its current valuation assumes significant future growth and an ability to scale into profitability. It also assumes that it will retain a strong technological moat which will enable it to increase gross margins over time.</p>\n<p>Overall, we rate PLUG a speculative buy at this point.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>How Plug Power Could Generate 7x Returns Over The Next Decade</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHow Plug Power Could Generate 7x Returns Over The Next Decade\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-27 23:26 GMT+8 <a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4441600-plug-power-could-generate-7x-returns-over-the-next-decade><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nPLUG is a leading hydrogen fuel cell turnkey provider in North American and European markets.\nThe company boasts advanced technology and strong growth momentum.\nWe outline the company's path ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4441600-plug-power-could-generate-7x-returns-over-the-next-decade\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4441600-plug-power-could-generate-7x-returns-over-the-next-decade","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1165178450","content_text":"Summary\n\nPLUG is a leading hydrogen fuel cell turnkey provider in North American and European markets.\nThe company boasts advanced technology and strong growth momentum.\nWe outline the company's path to growing from a $15 billion market cap to a $100 billion market cap over the next decade.\nThat said, PLUG still faces significant risks to its thesis that investors should keep in mind.\n\nJONGHO SHIN/iStock via Getty Images\nPlug Power (PLUG) is a leading hydrogen fuel cell turnkey provider in North American and European markets. The company boasts advanced technology and strong growth momentum which should propel it to significant appreciation over the long term. In this article we outline the company's path to growing from a $15 billion market cap to a $100 billion market cap (nearly 7x returns) over the next decade.\n#1. Addressable Market Potential\nWith the massive tailwinds for green energy and ESG investing at the moment, the hydrogen fuel cell market is likely to enjoy strong growth momentum for many years to come.\nFirst and foremost, the Biden administration has executed an aggressive about-face from the previous administration in its disposition towards clean energy and fossil fuels. Between executive orders and rejoining the Paris Climate Accords, the U.S. Government is increasingly incentivizing green energy investment and consumption. The European Union and China are also increasingly headed in this direction.\nSecond, the ESG investing movement has taken off to where it now accounts for an astonishing one-third of total assets under management in the United States. Given that so much capital is attracted to environmentally friendly investments, companies across the board - including in the hydrocarbon sector - are increasingly adopting policies that appeal to the environmentally-conscious investor.\nThird, the disruption and transformation of the automotive industry to reduce emissions is driving strong demand for new fuel technologies.\nFinally - largely due to the heavy investment and market demand - green technologies such as hydrogen fuel cells are seeing costs decline dramatically, making them increasingly competitive on the marketplace.\nAll of this should lead to continued strong growth in the sector. In fact, U.S. Hydrogen demand is expected to be 17 million metric tons per year by 2030 and 63 million metric tons by 2050, which is pretty substantial growth from the 10 million metric tons consumed in the U.S. last year. Globally, the hydrogen generation industry is expected to reach $201 billion by 2025 and should continue to grow rapidly in the decades to follow similar to how it is expected to grow in the U.S.\n\n#2. Market Share Drivers\nWe believe that PLUG has a strong chance at capturing a sizable portion of this massive addressable market for the following reasons.\nFirst and foremost, it has advanced technology and early mover advantages in the space. It owns numerous hydrogen energy systems including proton exchange membrane fuel cells, hybrid batteries, hydrogen storage, hydrogen dispensing, and fuel processing. Its flagship product is the electric vehicle focused GenDrive system that is complemented by their GenFuel and GenCare systems.\nSecond of all, it has a foothold in both North America and Europe which means that it has significantly more growth potential than if it was solely focused on a single continent. In fact, North America and Europe are likely to be the leaders in Hydrogen adaptation for the foreseeable future, so PLUG is well-positioned to capture a significant portion of the global market share.\nThird, PLUG has strong growth momentum right now and is winning business from some of the biggest companies in the world, including Amazon (AMZN), Walmart (WMT), Home Depot (HD), and General Motors (GM) either currently using their products or expected to become customers in the near future. As a result, we expect the 76% year-over-year revenue growth in its most recent quarterly report (128% year-over-year growth in their fuel cell systems and related infrastructure segment) to be sustainable for the foreseeable future.\nIn fact,analysts expect revenue to grow by 57% in 2022, which should push the company to EBITDA profitability.\n#3. Valuation\nWhile PLUG certainly operates in a hot industry and has numerous drivers that should enable it to capture significant market share, the company is also not cheap as it is currently running a loss.\nOn the other hand, its EV/revenue figure is not outlandish given their growth runway as PLUG currently trades at 29.8x expected 2021 sales and 21x expected 2022 sales.\nIn fact, with a product gross margin of 38% that expanded by a whopping 600 basis points in PLUG's most recent earnings release, its profitability potential is significant. Overall, PLUG's gross margin is expected to be a fairly weak 9.71% in 2021, but is expected to nearly double in 2022 to 18.93%. This is also a massive increase from 2017 when the gross margin was a mere 1.2%. The EBITDA margin is also expected to be a somewhat respectable 10.7% in 2022 as well.\nIf PLUG can continue to leverage its strong technology and massive expected economies of scale in the coming years, we think it is reasonable for it to push gross margins to 30% and net margins to 20% by 2032. Meanwhile, if it can capture even just 3% of global hydrogen market share by 2032 and the global market reaches roughly $390 billion by then (it is expected to exceed $200 billion by 2025 and will likely be growing by around 10% per year at least for the foreseeable future), PLUG should be generating $11.7 billion in revenues by 2032. That would assume a 31.9% revenue CAGR between 2022 and 2032, which we also believe is quite reasonable given its aforementioned growth momentum and competitive strengths.\nAt a 20% net margin, that would put its net earnings at over $2.3 billion in 2032, which would require a 42.7x price to earnings multiple to warrant a $100 billion market cap. Is this a reasonable multiple? It depends a lot on interest rates, but, given that the current S&P 500 (SPY) multiple is ~31x and PLUG's growth rate and growth runway will likely still be vastly superior to where the S&P 500's is today, it certainly does not seem too far-fetched to us.\nData by YCharts\n#4. Risks\nIf this model pans out how we think it could, PLUG is a very attractive buy on the latest pullback.\nData by YCharts\nOf course, it assumes that PLUG will be able to overcome several risks, so investors should keep in mind that it remains a very speculative investment at this point.\nFirst and foremost, it will demand that PLUG can maintain highly competitive technology in a space that is almost certain to grow increasingly competitive in the years to come.\nAdditionally, PLUG will need to balance investing in recruiting the best talent in the industry to sustain and increase its technological edge with investing in effective marketing while also avoiding diluting shareholders or running up a big debt burden. Given that it is not yet free cash flow positive, this could prove challenging in the short term. That said, their nearly $4.8 billion in cash and cash equivalents on hand should enable it to reach free cash flow positivity without stressing its balance sheet.\nThird, hydrogen power has not been without its critics over the years, most notably Tesla's (TSLA) founder and CEO Elon Musk. The wildly popular and visionary entrepreneur argued that using hydrogen to store energy can never be as efficient as storing electricity in a battery. In fact, he has gone so far as to say that using hydrogen fuel cells (which he calls \"fool cells\") to power vehicles is \"mind-bogglingly stupid.\" Obviously many individuals and corporations disagree with Musk's assessment and he has a clear incentive to try to discredit the technology, but this should still be viewed as a significant risk to keep an eye on. If hydrogen were to fall out of favor, it would significantly reduce the upside for PLUG and could even lead to permanent impairments from current levels if severe enough.\nInvestor Takeaway\nPLUG is a competitively positioned company in a rapidly-growing industry. Not only that, but the industry's growth runway looks promising for many decades to come. With advanced technology, early mover advantages, and a foothold on the two most fertile continents for Hydrogen technology, PLUG should be able to generate strong revenue growth for a long time to come.\nGiven our assumptions outlined in this article, we think that PLUG could very possibly achieve a $100 billion market cap in about a decade. This would represent a 667% total return (20.9% CAGR) over that span assuming no further share dilution.\nThat said, PLUG is also far from a conservative sleep well at night stock and investors should keep in mind that its current valuation assumes significant future growth and an ability to scale into profitability. It also assumes that it will retain a strong technological moat which will enable it to increase gross margins over time.\nOverall, we rate PLUG a speculative buy at this point.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":293,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}
