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2022-07-10

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2022-05-11

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@资本邦:恆生醫療ETF漲幅5.97%，位居恆生系列產品第一

2022-04-18

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2022-01-24

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2022-01-09

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Airbus Allegedly Exceeded 2021 Delivery Targets, Analysts Bullish This Year

2021-08-20

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Is the running bilibili going to fall into the mortal world?

2021-08-20

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2021-08-17

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Modern Dental once rose by more than 30%, expecting net profit to turn losses into profits in the first half of the year

2021-08-16

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Market pressure is mounting, all eyes are on the annual meeting of global central banks in Jackson Hole

2021-08-16

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Ren Zeping: 2021 Global Housing Price Trends

2021-08-14

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[Change] The decline of popular Chinese concept stocks expanded, and Keike fell more than 9%

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08:22","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Airbus Allegedly Exceeded 2021 Delivery Targets, Analysts Bullish This Year","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2201217750","media":"新浪财经","summary":"　　此前，有报道称，空客超额完成了其2021年全年交付600架飞机的目标，继续领先于主要竞争对手波音公司。　　空客将在下周一市场收盘后公布2021年订单和交付的情况，波音则将在下周二披露相关数据。由于空客有信心超额完成2021年的交付目标，该公司已将重点转向2022年的窄体客机生产率和交付量。　　分析师表示，尽管空客尚未给出2022年的交付展望，但预计将大大高于2021年。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Financial Associated Press (Shanghai, editor Xia Junxiong) News, according to media reports citing industry sources, Airbus delivered at least 605 aircraft in 2021, and this number may rise to 611 after the results of the final audit are released.</p><p>Earlier, it was reported that Airbus exceeded its full-year 2021 target of 600 aircraft deliveries, continuing to lead key rivals<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BA\">boeing</a>Inc.</p><p>During COVID-19 pandemic, aircraft deliveries are key to generating cash. It is reported that in times of crisis, through some workarounds, some airlines were allowed to delay the inclusion of new aircraft in the asset load table, thus partially securing deliveries, but such agreements must be reviewed by auditors.</p><p>Airbus will announce orders and deliveries in 2021 after the market closes next Monday, while Boeing will disclose relevant data next Tuesday.</p><p>Right now, the aviation industry is trying to readjust the supply chain weakened by the epidemic. As Airbus is confident of exceeding its 2021 delivery targets, the company has shifted its focus to narrow-body airliner production rates and deliveries in 2022.</p><p>Some aircraft originally scheduled to be delivered in 2022 are expected to be delayed by several months as some parts are under pressure from logistics bottlenecks and chip shortages, industry insiders said. Sources say deliveries of some aircraft are even at risk of being delayed until 2023.</p><p>Although Airbus has yet to give a delivery outlook for 2022, it is expected to be significantly higher than 2021, analysts said.</p><p>Last October, Airbus raised its production target for its A320 family of narrow-body aircraft to 65 per month until summer 2023. It is worth mentioning that Airbus once hoped to increase monthly production to 75 aircraft, but due to the conflict with France<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/0IU8.UK\">Safran</a>Engine manufacturers such as the group gave up because of their differences.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"sina_us","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Airbus Allegedly Exceeded 2021 Delivery Targets, Analysts Bullish This Year</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAirbus Allegedly Exceeded 2021 Delivery Targets, Analysts Bullish This Year\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">新浪财经</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-01-08 08:22</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Financial Associated Press (Shanghai, editor Xia Junxiong) News, according to media reports citing industry sources, Airbus delivered at least 605 aircraft in 2021, and this number may rise to 611 after the results of the final audit are released.</p><p>Earlier, it was reported that Airbus exceeded its full-year 2021 target of 600 aircraft deliveries, continuing to lead key rivals<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BA\">boeing</a>Inc.</p><p>During COVID-19 pandemic, aircraft deliveries are key to generating cash. It is reported that in times of crisis, through some workarounds, some airlines were allowed to delay the inclusion of new aircraft in the asset load table, thus partially securing deliveries, but such agreements must be reviewed by auditors.</p><p>Airbus will announce orders and deliveries in 2021 after the market closes next Monday, while Boeing will disclose relevant data next Tuesday.</p><p>Right now, the aviation industry is trying to readjust the supply chain weakened by the epidemic. As Airbus is confident of exceeding its 2021 delivery targets, the company has shifted its focus to narrow-body airliner production rates and deliveries in 2022.</p><p>Some aircraft originally scheduled to be delivered in 2022 are expected to be delayed by several months as some parts are under pressure from logistics bottlenecks and chip shortages, industry insiders said. Sources say deliveries of some aircraft are even at risk of being delayed until 2023.</p><p>Although Airbus has yet to give a delivery outlook for 2022, it is expected to be significantly higher than 2021, analysts said.</p><p>Last October, Airbus raised its production target for its A320 family of narrow-body aircraft to 65 per month until summer 2023. It is worth mentioning that Airbus once hoped to increase monthly production to 75 aircraft, but due to the conflict with France<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/0IU8.UK\">Safran</a>Engine manufacturers such as the group gave up because of their differences.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2022-01-08/doc-ikyakumx8965029.shtml\">新浪财经</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/80e4ab3e53452f4e5554d2f59e6f6d9b","relate_stocks":{"EADSY":"空中客车集团"},"source_url":"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2022-01-08/doc-ikyakumx8965029.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2201217750","content_text":"财联社（上海，编辑 夏军雄）讯，据媒体援引业内人士消息报道，空中客车公司在2021年交付了至少605架飞机，而在最终审计的结果出炉后，这一数字可能会升至611架。此前，有报道称，空客超额完成了其2021年全年交付600架飞机的目标，继续领先于主要竞争对手波音公司。在新冠疫情期间，飞机交付量是产生现金的关键。据悉，在危机时期，通过一些变通办法，一些航空公司被允许推迟将新飞机计入资产负载表，从而部分确保了交付，但此类协议必须经过审计机构的审核。空客将在下周一市场收盘后公布2021年订单和交付的情况，波音则将在下周二披露相关数据。眼下，航空业正试图重新调整被疫情削弱的供应链。由于空客有信心超额完成2021年的交付目标，该公司已将重点转向2022年的窄体客机生产率和交付量。业内人士称，由于部分零部件受到物流瓶颈和芯片短缺的压力，一些原定于2022年交付的飞机预计要推迟几个月。有消息称，一些飞机的交付时间甚至有推迟到2023年的风险。分析师表示，尽管空客尚未给出2022年的交付展望，但预计将大大高于2021年。去年10月，空客将其A320 系列窄体机生产目标上调至2023年夏季之前每月65架。值得一提的是，空客一度希望将月产量提高至75架，但因与法国赛峰集团等发动机制造商存在分歧而作罢。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"EADSY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3778,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":838405473,"gmtCreate":1629422455092,"gmtModify":1676530034644,"author":{"id":"4089193130492580","authorId":"4089193130492580","name":"Kyochan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4fc81b464ccbd183246bb9a55efdc950","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4089193130492580","authorIdStr":"4089193130492580"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"??","listText":"??","text":"??","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/838405473","repostId":"2160799134","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2160799134","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1629456490,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2160799134?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-08-20 18:48","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Is the running bilibili going to fall into the mortal world?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2160799134","media":"海豚投研","summary":"北京时间8月19日港股盘后，哔哩哔哩发布了2021年二季度财报。\n本季B站实现净营收45亿元人民币，同比增长72%，优于市场一致预期的43亿元(彭博)，一如既往的超前期指引(42.5-43.5亿元)。","content":"<p>After the Hong Kong stock market closed on August 19, Beijing time,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">Bilibili</a>Released the financial report for the second quarter of 2021.</p><p>This quarter, Station B achieved net revenue of 4.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 72%, which was better than the market consensus expectation of 4.3 billion yuan (Bloomberg), and as always exceeded the previous guidance (4.25-4.35 billion yuan).</p><p>Looking forward to the third quarter, the management gave a revenue guidance of 5.1 billion to 5.2 billion yuan, with an implied growth rate of around 60%, which is not particularly optimistic. The market's current consensus forecast for third-quarter revenue of 5.17 billion falls within the guidance range. In the past, the lower limit of the guidance will exceed market expectations. Obviously, this time Station B's guidance for the third quarter is slightly conservative.</p><p>The adjusted net loss in the second quarter was 857 million yuan, better than market expectations of 1.084 billion yuan. However, if we look at the operating loss of the main business, the loss of 1.52 billion corresponds to a loss rate of 34%, while the market consensus expects it to be 28% (the expectations of some leading banks have been adjusted, which is similar to the actual loss rate), breaking down the data in detail, the main expected difference is in operating expenses. (Specific reasons are analyzed below)</p><p>In addition, in terms of other key operating indicators, a quick overview of the difference between performance in the second quarter and market expectations:<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d433a44edd005775f09cd4c0c615873c\" tg-width=\"618\" tg-height=\"331\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Data source: Station B financial report, compiled by Dolphin Investment Research</p><p>Let's talk about the conclusion first:</p><p>(1) On the whole, although the revenue and user data of Station B in the second quarter obviously beat the company's guidance and market expectations.</p><p>However, at the end of July, the company gave some forward-looking guidance with securities firms on the specific performance of the second quarter (most of the market thought that the forward-looking was not positive, which also triggered a round of stock price decline), and then the market's expectations have been adjusted according to this forward-looking. It has been some time.</p><p>(2) However, judging from the final delivery results, the performance of advertising revenue is obviously quite excellent, doubling year-on-year.</p><p>The game collapsed badly. Although the popular new games were released as scheduled, the overall turnover did not increase but decreased. Generally speaking, self-developed games are still somewhat clear in Bilibili's mind, and the pace of foreign investment in game studios has not stopped in the second quarter.</p><p>(3) The growth of the user market is OK, but the old problem still shows no signs of improvement: DAU of daily active users can't keep up with the growth rate of MAU, which can be said to reflect the decline of overall user stickiness. In the third quarter, we faced multiple regulatory pressures (summer clear action, protection of minors, live broadcast supervision, etc.), and it is expected that the growth of users may not be as good as the previous summer vacation peak season.</p><p>But Mr. Dolphin believes that in the long run, the value of B is by no means more than that. Although it has the original intention of not doing patch advertisements, the current Huahuo platform belongs to the nature of private domain advertising, and the share given to the Up owner accounts for the absolute majority, which in disguise eats a lot of potential commercial value that originally belonged to Station B. In addition, the current user activity (DAU) of Station B and the effect of public domain advertising cannot be simply benchmarked with other platforms such as short videos.</p><p>As the old saying goes, the most valuable thing of station B is that the Z-era users who continue to grow Up and become the main force of social consumption on the platform include Up owners. This part of users has a very high degree of recognition of the value of Bilibili. Although the high-frequency activity is not as good as other platforms (relying on algorithms to stick to users), users will regard Bilibili as a community rather than a tool platform for receiving information.</p><p>In addition, the proportion of Up owners among users of station B has been increasing, which reflects that in addition to a long-term healthy community ecology, more and more UGC content and participants make reward value-added services such as live broadcasts of station B better than traditional live broadcasts. Show live broadcasts have more advantages.</p><p>From the perspective of the stock price trend, the current Bilibili has fallen below a reasonable valuation range. Mr. Dolphin believes that the current stock price implies too pessimistic growth expectations for the future of Bilibili. In the short term, stock price fluctuations are more affected by the regulatory environment, such as the supervision of cultural content in special years, the protection of minors, and the summer clearance movement.</p><p>In addition, the pressure of video copyright supervision has also had a certain impact on Station B, especially in terms of user growth and user stickiness. It is expected that the performance of the summer peak season in the third quarter of this year will be weaker than in previous years. Combined with the slightly conservative guidance of the company's management, it may still fluctuate in the short term. Like other pan-entertainment platforms, they can actively intervene after the regulatory environment eases in 1-2 quarters.</p><p>Detailed interpretation of this financial report data</p><p>1. Overall performance: Beat guidance and expectations, third quarter guidance is average</p><p>(1) Income side</p><p>In the second quarter, Station B achieved net revenue of 4.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 72%, which was better than the market consensus expectation of 4.3 billion yuan (Bloomberg), the upper limit of beat management guidance.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fafffeeda8d6558a844d6a1b948b3d73\" tg-width=\"613\" tg-height=\"311\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Data source: Bilibili financial report, compiled by Dolphin Investment Research</p><p>Among different businesses, the growth rate of advertising revenue continues to be bright. Although new games with high popularity have been released, they still perform poorly, with contributions falling rapidly year-on-year, and live broadcasts and value-added services accelerating.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1eeda3cb86c264fb48624bfdedb9a290\" tg-width=\"613\" tg-height=\"319\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Data source: Bilibili financial report, compiled by Dolphin Investment Research</p><p>(2) Profit side</p><p>In the second quarter, the company's gross profit margin fell by 2ppt month-on-month, mainly due to the increase in new game share, content investment (LPL global finals, e-sports regular season live broadcast rights), and the increase in live broadcast share (the share for anchors has been increased to 80%-90%). In addition, since the bulk of Huahuo's share is mainly given to Up owners, the advertising gross profit margin of Station B of about 50% will be significantly lower than the 70-80% level of other platforms.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f887b456f776639212b683aff9b924f5\" tg-width=\"615\" tg-height=\"297\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Data source: Bilibili financial report, compiled by Dolphin Investment Research</p><p>Operating loss (GAAP) was 1.521 billion yuan, exceeding market expectations of 1.188 billion yuan, mainly due to the increase in marketing expense ratio. In the second quarter, many new tours were released, and marketing and promotion expenditures were relatively large, an increase of 6ppt from the previous quarter. In addition, employee compensation and equity incentives still increased year-on-year this quarter.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/00700190b7ba758d9a73747e491e8e3d\" tg-width=\"619\" tg-height=\"317\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Data source: Bilibili financial report, compiled by Dolphin Investment Research</p><p>2. User scale: The off-season is not weak, but growth in the third quarter may be under pressure under more supervision</p><p>Compared with the previous quarter, the number of users in the second quarter increased by 13.8 million, reaching 237 million. Despite the high base last year, it still increased by 38%, which was higher than market expectations of 30%.</p><p>Considering Ruidi's previous long-term guidance of 400 million users in 2023, the growth rate is based on the 20% reduction rate in the previous year, and the growth rate of users for the whole year of this year will exceed 30%, otherwise it will not be able to break through 400 million by the end of 2023. target. (If the reduction rate is faster, the pressure on growth this year will also be greater.)</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dc35917db286aafaf7193beaf990f689\" tg-width=\"625\" tg-height=\"333\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Data source: Bilibili financial report, compiled by Dolphin Investment Research</p><p>Regarding user stickiness, the old problem still exists. Although there are seasonal reasons, user stickiness (DAU/MAU) hit a two-year low. The activity of the platform will affect the future realization value space, especially for advertisers, who prefer platforms with high DAU or higher user stickiness.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3a5dd2285fa12caf9aaf03b668066ab5\" tg-width=\"609\" tg-height=\"318\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Data source: Bilibili financial report, compiled by Dolphin Investment Research</p><p>However, considering that the length of the video itself will also have a certain impact on the activity of the platform, the longer the video, the relatively average the activity. From Questmobile's 30-day retention about different video apps. Basically follow the rule of short video > medium video > long video. The company previously proposed that it is still in the stage of expanding its volume and scale out of the circle, and the long-term guidance target for this indicator is 30%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ebbdf10234956d4d225ac1921ef87260\" tg-width=\"553\" tg-height=\"257\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>It is worth mentioning that in the second quarter, bilibili made two prominent function page revisions for user stickiness. It is expected that user stickiness will improve to some extent in the third quarter:</p><p>A. One is the vertical screen mode \"Story Mode\". Similar to short videos, you can directly slide up and down to switch videos. The main purpose is to increase user time.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b7c6b06f790f5a624b92688c945fc0b0\" tg-width=\"553\" tg-height=\"371\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>b. The other is a major revision of the function that was just launched in the summer vacation, highlighting the video creation function to guide more users to convert into Up masters.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cb424a1d22c31c3acb454618b7158bf9\" tg-width=\"636\" tg-height=\"654\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c287fb8a77a7fbab67aa803197b88623\" tg-width=\"612\" tg-height=\"314\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Data source: Bilibili financial report, compiled by Dolphin Investment Research</p><p>In terms of paying users, this quarter, the paying users of games, big members, and virtual items (such as coins, live gifts, etc.) were affected by seasonality. The overall number of paying users was 20.9 million, and the paying penetration rate was basically the same month-on-month, but the single-user payment level The downward trend is still accelerating.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cd0b917dd35f1253ab8521cd3e647405\" tg-width=\"613\" tg-height=\"312\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Data source: Bilibili financial report, compiled by Dolphin Investment Research</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e3fe17f130feaa73981a00fa6fc15c4e\" tg-width=\"590\" tg-height=\"300\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Data source: Bilibili financial report, compiled by Dolphin Investment Research</p><p>3. Advertising business: the prosperity continues unabated, and commercialization is advancing steadily</p><p>In the second quarter, the advertising revenue of Station B reached 1.05 billion yuan, a growth rate of 201%, greatly exceeding the expectations of the market and Dolphin (150%). With the economic recovery, advertising delivery picks up and the increasingly recognized brand influence of Station B, it will help continue to promote the prosperity of advertising in Station B.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9ca8a9f6b713d9dcc736ab2e96a05fa1\" tg-width=\"616\" tg-height=\"320\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Data source: Bilibili financial report, compiled by Dolphin Investment Research</p><p>At present, the share taken by Huahuo Platform Bilibili is only about 6%, and the revenue is recognized according to the total transaction volume, thus lowering the gross profit margin of the overall advertising.</p><p>Judging from the unique platform tonality of Station B, the future contribution of the Huahuo platform will also increase significantly. But for Station B, the contribution of the Huahuo platform to the overall performance may not be the core indicator of Station B in the short term, but more about regarding Huahuo as a major empowerment tool to maintain the main ecosystem of Up.</p><p>After all, on Station B, the interaction between Up owners and users is high, and there are even some emotional connections. It can be regarded as a private domain relationship. Therefore, the Up master is also the core asset of Station B.</p><p>Mr. Dolphin guessed that in addition to the need to supplement more content supply, considering the strategic significance of Huahuo, this is also the reason why Station b is constantly expanding the scale of Up main.</p><p>4. Games: Bilibili's self-developed mobile games are still difficult to play</p><p>In the second quarter, the game revenue of bilibili fell by 1% year-on-year. Compared with peers (the domestic mobile game market grew by 13% in the second quarter), it can be said that it is very ugly. Although the popular new games \"Kangong Riding the Crown Sword\", \"Mobile War Ji\" and \"Sword Art Online\", which the market has high hopes for, have been released in the second quarter, but the running water performance is very low except that \"Kangong\" will be able to watch.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b34589edda01d2b4762c3bbb863a908c\" tg-width=\"618\" tg-height=\"323\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Data source: Bilibili financial report, compiled by Dolphin Investment Research</p><p>Data from third parties Sensor<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TWR.AU\">Tower</a>From the point of view, the second quarter was mainly supported by the old tour of the agent and the flow of \"Kangong\", while the popularity of \"Mobile Warrior Ji\" and \"Sword Art Online\" declined too fast. (The black line is the flowing water of Yuan Shen, and the yellow line is the flowing water of Kangong)</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/76120ec81bbd370af36846abdce95ab9\" tg-width=\"618\" tg-height=\"318\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Perhaps because it is aware of its own abilities, Bilibili invested in 7 game companies in the first quarter, and increased its investment in game projects in the second quarter, adding 6 new investments.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/06dfa2b855bb47a37223f2cd28caa0a9\" tg-width=\"587\" tg-height=\"315\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Data source: IT Orange</p><p>5. Value-added services: Excellent performance, it is expected that video coin sharing and live broadcast popularity will bring</p><p>In the second quarter, the value-added business actually performed well, especially in the industry environment of the overall show, achieving revenue of 1.64 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 98%, slightly lower than the expectations of big banks.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/17b705a002cb773314ece3532fc873c7\" tg-width=\"625\" tg-height=\"324\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Data source: Bilibili financial report, compiled by Dolphin Investment Research</p><p>Station B's live broadcast and value-added services include big membership, video coin share, live broadcast reward share, etc. From the perspective of the scale of paying users, considering the poor performance of mobile games in the second quarter, and the new regulatory policy faced by Riman in April (first review and then broadcast), which is expected to have an impact on the income of big members. Therefore, excluding these two parts of income, Dolphin Jun speculates that the rapid growth of new paying users, overall live broadcast growth and value-added services should be mainly brought about by the increase in coin share and the popularity of live broadcast.</p><p>This is different from the traditional show live broadcast. At present, the live broadcast of station B is still in the growth stage of high-speed penetration.</p><p>6. Other businesses such as e-commerce: although the proportion is small, the momentum is stronger</p><p>In the second quarter, e-commerce continued to grow at a high rate nearly doubling. However, considering that this piece of income (membership purchase) is mainly driven by the consumption of core animation users, the current proportion is still relatively small at 13%. However, as the two-dimensional group of users in the Z era continues to grow, the future prospects should not be underestimated. Therefore, Mr. Dolphin suggested that investors should pay moderate attention to this business.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/18a80db984627337ad7a5bca90facc7f\" tg-width=\"632\" tg-height=\"334\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Data source: Bilibili financial report, compiled by Dolphin Investment Research</p>","source":"lsy1607051923659","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Is the running bilibili going to fall into the mortal world?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIs the running bilibili going to fall into the mortal world?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">海豚投研</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-20 18:48</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>After the Hong Kong stock market closed on August 19, Beijing time,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">Bilibili</a>Released the financial report for the second quarter of 2021.</p><p>This quarter, Station B achieved net revenue of 4.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 72%, which was better than the market consensus expectation of 4.3 billion yuan (Bloomberg), and as always exceeded the previous guidance (4.25-4.35 billion yuan).</p><p>Looking forward to the third quarter, the management gave a revenue guidance of 5.1 billion to 5.2 billion yuan, with an implied growth rate of around 60%, which is not particularly optimistic. The market's current consensus forecast for third-quarter revenue of 5.17 billion falls within the guidance range. In the past, the lower limit of the guidance will exceed market expectations. Obviously, this time Station B's guidance for the third quarter is slightly conservative.</p><p>The adjusted net loss in the second quarter was 857 million yuan, better than market expectations of 1.084 billion yuan. However, if we look at the operating loss of the main business, the loss of 1.52 billion corresponds to a loss rate of 34%, while the market consensus expects it to be 28% (the expectations of some leading banks have been adjusted, which is similar to the actual loss rate), breaking down the data in detail, the main expected difference is in operating expenses. (Specific reasons are analyzed below)</p><p>In addition, in terms of other key operating indicators, a quick overview of the difference between performance in the second quarter and market expectations:<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d433a44edd005775f09cd4c0c615873c\" tg-width=\"618\" tg-height=\"331\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Data source: Station B financial report, compiled by Dolphin Investment Research</p><p>Let's talk about the conclusion first:</p><p>(1) On the whole, although the revenue and user data of Station B in the second quarter obviously beat the company's guidance and market expectations.</p><p>However, at the end of July, the company gave some forward-looking guidance with securities firms on the specific performance of the second quarter (most of the market thought that the forward-looking was not positive, which also triggered a round of stock price decline), and then the market's expectations have been adjusted according to this forward-looking. It has been some time.</p><p>(2) However, judging from the final delivery results, the performance of advertising revenue is obviously quite excellent, doubling year-on-year.</p><p>The game collapsed badly. Although the popular new games were released as scheduled, the overall turnover did not increase but decreased. Generally speaking, self-developed games are still somewhat clear in Bilibili's mind, and the pace of foreign investment in game studios has not stopped in the second quarter.</p><p>(3) The growth of the user market is OK, but the old problem still shows no signs of improvement: DAU of daily active users can't keep up with the growth rate of MAU, which can be said to reflect the decline of overall user stickiness. In the third quarter, we faced multiple regulatory pressures (summer clear action, protection of minors, live broadcast supervision, etc.), and it is expected that the growth of users may not be as good as the previous summer vacation peak season.</p><p>But Mr. Dolphin believes that in the long run, the value of B is by no means more than that. Although it has the original intention of not doing patch advertisements, the current Huahuo platform belongs to the nature of private domain advertising, and the share given to the Up owner accounts for the absolute majority, which in disguise eats a lot of potential commercial value that originally belonged to Station B. In addition, the current user activity (DAU) of Station B and the effect of public domain advertising cannot be simply benchmarked with other platforms such as short videos.</p><p>As the old saying goes, the most valuable thing of station B is that the Z-era users who continue to grow Up and become the main force of social consumption on the platform include Up owners. This part of users has a very high degree of recognition of the value of Bilibili. Although the high-frequency activity is not as good as other platforms (relying on algorithms to stick to users), users will regard Bilibili as a community rather than a tool platform for receiving information.</p><p>In addition, the proportion of Up owners among users of station B has been increasing, which reflects that in addition to a long-term healthy community ecology, more and more UGC content and participants make reward value-added services such as live broadcasts of station B better than traditional live broadcasts. Show live broadcasts have more advantages.</p><p>From the perspective of the stock price trend, the current Bilibili has fallen below a reasonable valuation range. Mr. Dolphin believes that the current stock price implies too pessimistic growth expectations for the future of Bilibili. In the short term, stock price fluctuations are more affected by the regulatory environment, such as the supervision of cultural content in special years, the protection of minors, and the summer clearance movement.</p><p>In addition, the pressure of video copyright supervision has also had a certain impact on Station B, especially in terms of user growth and user stickiness. It is expected that the performance of the summer peak season in the third quarter of this year will be weaker than in previous years. Combined with the slightly conservative guidance of the company's management, it may still fluctuate in the short term. Like other pan-entertainment platforms, they can actively intervene after the regulatory environment eases in 1-2 quarters.</p><p>Detailed interpretation of this financial report data</p><p>1. Overall performance: Beat guidance and expectations, third quarter guidance is average</p><p>(1) Income side</p><p>In the second quarter, Station B achieved net revenue of 4.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 72%, which was better than the market consensus expectation of 4.3 billion yuan (Bloomberg), the upper limit of beat management guidance.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fafffeeda8d6558a844d6a1b948b3d73\" tg-width=\"613\" tg-height=\"311\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Data source: Bilibili financial report, compiled by Dolphin Investment Research</p><p>Among different businesses, the growth rate of advertising revenue continues to be bright. Although new games with high popularity have been released, they still perform poorly, with contributions falling rapidly year-on-year, and live broadcasts and value-added services accelerating.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1eeda3cb86c264fb48624bfdedb9a290\" tg-width=\"613\" tg-height=\"319\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Data source: Bilibili financial report, compiled by Dolphin Investment Research</p><p>(2) Profit side</p><p>In the second quarter, the company's gross profit margin fell by 2ppt month-on-month, mainly due to the increase in new game share, content investment (LPL global finals, e-sports regular season live broadcast rights), and the increase in live broadcast share (the share for anchors has been increased to 80%-90%). In addition, since the bulk of Huahuo's share is mainly given to Up owners, the advertising gross profit margin of Station B of about 50% will be significantly lower than the 70-80% level of other platforms.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f887b456f776639212b683aff9b924f5\" tg-width=\"615\" tg-height=\"297\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Data source: Bilibili financial report, compiled by Dolphin Investment Research</p><p>Operating loss (GAAP) was 1.521 billion yuan, exceeding market expectations of 1.188 billion yuan, mainly due to the increase in marketing expense ratio. In the second quarter, many new tours were released, and marketing and promotion expenditures were relatively large, an increase of 6ppt from the previous quarter. In addition, employee compensation and equity incentives still increased year-on-year this quarter.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/00700190b7ba758d9a73747e491e8e3d\" tg-width=\"619\" tg-height=\"317\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Data source: Bilibili financial report, compiled by Dolphin Investment Research</p><p>2. User scale: The off-season is not weak, but growth in the third quarter may be under pressure under more supervision</p><p>Compared with the previous quarter, the number of users in the second quarter increased by 13.8 million, reaching 237 million. Despite the high base last year, it still increased by 38%, which was higher than market expectations of 30%.</p><p>Considering Ruidi's previous long-term guidance of 400 million users in 2023, the growth rate is based on the 20% reduction rate in the previous year, and the growth rate of users for the whole year of this year will exceed 30%, otherwise it will not be able to break through 400 million by the end of 2023. target. (If the reduction rate is faster, the pressure on growth this year will also be greater.)</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dc35917db286aafaf7193beaf990f689\" tg-width=\"625\" tg-height=\"333\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Data source: Bilibili financial report, compiled by Dolphin Investment Research</p><p>Regarding user stickiness, the old problem still exists. Although there are seasonal reasons, user stickiness (DAU/MAU) hit a two-year low. The activity of the platform will affect the future realization value space, especially for advertisers, who prefer platforms with high DAU or higher user stickiness.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3a5dd2285fa12caf9aaf03b668066ab5\" tg-width=\"609\" tg-height=\"318\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Data source: Bilibili financial report, compiled by Dolphin Investment Research</p><p>However, considering that the length of the video itself will also have a certain impact on the activity of the platform, the longer the video, the relatively average the activity. From Questmobile's 30-day retention about different video apps. Basically follow the rule of short video > medium video > long video. The company previously proposed that it is still in the stage of expanding its volume and scale out of the circle, and the long-term guidance target for this indicator is 30%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ebbdf10234956d4d225ac1921ef87260\" tg-width=\"553\" tg-height=\"257\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>It is worth mentioning that in the second quarter, bilibili made two prominent function page revisions for user stickiness. It is expected that user stickiness will improve to some extent in the third quarter:</p><p>A. One is the vertical screen mode \"Story Mode\". Similar to short videos, you can directly slide up and down to switch videos. The main purpose is to increase user time.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b7c6b06f790f5a624b92688c945fc0b0\" tg-width=\"553\" tg-height=\"371\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>b. The other is a major revision of the function that was just launched in the summer vacation, highlighting the video creation function to guide more users to convert into Up masters.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cb424a1d22c31c3acb454618b7158bf9\" tg-width=\"636\" tg-height=\"654\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c287fb8a77a7fbab67aa803197b88623\" tg-width=\"612\" tg-height=\"314\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Data source: Bilibili financial report, compiled by Dolphin Investment Research</p><p>In terms of paying users, this quarter, the paying users of games, big members, and virtual items (such as coins, live gifts, etc.) were affected by seasonality. The overall number of paying users was 20.9 million, and the paying penetration rate was basically the same month-on-month, but the single-user payment level The downward trend is still accelerating.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cd0b917dd35f1253ab8521cd3e647405\" tg-width=\"613\" tg-height=\"312\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Data source: Bilibili financial report, compiled by Dolphin Investment Research</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e3fe17f130feaa73981a00fa6fc15c4e\" tg-width=\"590\" tg-height=\"300\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Data source: Bilibili financial report, compiled by Dolphin Investment Research</p><p>3. Advertising business: the prosperity continues unabated, and commercialization is advancing steadily</p><p>In the second quarter, the advertising revenue of Station B reached 1.05 billion yuan, a growth rate of 201%, greatly exceeding the expectations of the market and Dolphin (150%). With the economic recovery, advertising delivery picks up and the increasingly recognized brand influence of Station B, it will help continue to promote the prosperity of advertising in Station B.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9ca8a9f6b713d9dcc736ab2e96a05fa1\" tg-width=\"616\" tg-height=\"320\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Data source: Bilibili financial report, compiled by Dolphin Investment Research</p><p>At present, the share taken by Huahuo Platform Bilibili is only about 6%, and the revenue is recognized according to the total transaction volume, thus lowering the gross profit margin of the overall advertising.</p><p>Judging from the unique platform tonality of Station B, the future contribution of the Huahuo platform will also increase significantly. But for Station B, the contribution of the Huahuo platform to the overall performance may not be the core indicator of Station B in the short term, but more about regarding Huahuo as a major empowerment tool to maintain the main ecosystem of Up.</p><p>After all, on Station B, the interaction between Up owners and users is high, and there are even some emotional connections. It can be regarded as a private domain relationship. Therefore, the Up master is also the core asset of Station B.</p><p>Mr. Dolphin guessed that in addition to the need to supplement more content supply, considering the strategic significance of Huahuo, this is also the reason why Station b is constantly expanding the scale of Up main.</p><p>4. Games: Bilibili's self-developed mobile games are still difficult to play</p><p>In the second quarter, the game revenue of bilibili fell by 1% year-on-year. Compared with peers (the domestic mobile game market grew by 13% in the second quarter), it can be said that it is very ugly. Although the popular new games \"Kangong Riding the Crown Sword\", \"Mobile War Ji\" and \"Sword Art Online\", which the market has high hopes for, have been released in the second quarter, but the running water performance is very low except that \"Kangong\" will be able to watch.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b34589edda01d2b4762c3bbb863a908c\" tg-width=\"618\" tg-height=\"323\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Data source: Bilibili financial report, compiled by Dolphin Investment Research</p><p>Data from third parties Sensor<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TWR.AU\">Tower</a>From the point of view, the second quarter was mainly supported by the old tour of the agent and the flow of \"Kangong\", while the popularity of \"Mobile Warrior Ji\" and \"Sword Art Online\" declined too fast. (The black line is the flowing water of Yuan Shen, and the yellow line is the flowing water of Kangong)</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/76120ec81bbd370af36846abdce95ab9\" tg-width=\"618\" tg-height=\"318\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Perhaps because it is aware of its own abilities, Bilibili invested in 7 game companies in the first quarter, and increased its investment in game projects in the second quarter, adding 6 new investments.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/06dfa2b855bb47a37223f2cd28caa0a9\" tg-width=\"587\" tg-height=\"315\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Data source: IT Orange</p><p>5. Value-added services: Excellent performance, it is expected that video coin sharing and live broadcast popularity will bring</p><p>In the second quarter, the value-added business actually performed well, especially in the industry environment of the overall show, achieving revenue of 1.64 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 98%, slightly lower than the expectations of big banks.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/17b705a002cb773314ece3532fc873c7\" tg-width=\"625\" tg-height=\"324\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Data source: Bilibili financial report, compiled by Dolphin Investment Research</p><p>Station B's live broadcast and value-added services include big membership, video coin share, live broadcast reward share, etc. From the perspective of the scale of paying users, considering the poor performance of mobile games in the second quarter, and the new regulatory policy faced by Riman in April (first review and then broadcast), which is expected to have an impact on the income of big members. Therefore, excluding these two parts of income, Dolphin Jun speculates that the rapid growth of new paying users, overall live broadcast growth and value-added services should be mainly brought about by the increase in coin share and the popularity of live broadcast.</p><p>This is different from the traditional show live broadcast. At present, the live broadcast of station B is still in the growth stage of high-speed penetration.</p><p>6. Other businesses such as e-commerce: although the proportion is small, the momentum is stronger</p><p>In the second quarter, e-commerce continued to grow at a high rate nearly doubling. However, considering that this piece of income (membership purchase) is mainly driven by the consumption of core animation users, the current proportion is still relatively small at 13%. However, as the two-dimensional group of users in the Z era continues to grow, the future prospects should not be underestimated. Therefore, Mr. Dolphin suggested that investors should pay moderate attention to this business.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/18a80db984627337ad7a5bca90facc7f\" tg-width=\"632\" tg-height=\"334\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Data source: Bilibili financial report, compiled by Dolphin Investment Research</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/3vpiikFB32ccR93qlev_iw\">海豚投研</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d200d79dddd38e6e9c8afcc45f4b15a9","relate_stocks":{"09626":"哔哩哔哩-W","BILI":"哔哩哔哩"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/3vpiikFB32ccR93qlev_iw","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2160799134","content_text":"北京时间8月19日港股盘后，哔哩哔哩发布了2021年二季度财报。\n本季B站实现净营收45亿元人民币，同比增长72%，优于市场一致预期的43亿元(彭博)，一如既往的超前期指引(42.5-43.5亿元)。\n展望三季度，管理层给出收入指引 51亿元~52亿元，隐含增速在60%左右，并不算特别乐观。市场当前对三季度营收的一致预期 51.7亿落在指引区间，而以往情况，指引下限就会超出市场预期。显然这一次B站的三季度指引是略保守的。\n二季度经调整净亏损8.57亿元，优于市场预期的10.84亿元。但如果从主营业务的经营亏损情况来看，15.2亿的亏损对应34%的亏损率，而市场一致预期在28%(部分头部大行的预期有所调整，与实际亏损率差不多)，细拆数据，主要预期差在运营费用上。(具体原因下文分析)\n另外在其他关键经营指标上，二季度表现与市场预期差速览：\n数据来源：B站财报、海豚投研整理\n先说结论：\n(1)从整体上看，虽然B站二季度收入端和用户数据，明显beat了公司指引和市场预期。\n但7月底公司对外与券商做过一些二季度具体业绩情况的前瞻引导(市场多数认为前瞻并不积极，因此也引发了一轮股价的下跌)，随后市场的预期根据这次前瞻也已经调整了一段时间了。\n(2)不过，从最终交付的结果来看，广告收入表现显然还是相当出色的，同比翻一倍。\n游戏则拉垮的厉害，热门新游虽然如期发布，但整体流水不增反降。自研游戏一般般B站心里还是多少清楚的，二季度对外投资游戏工作室的脚步没有停。\n(3)用户大盘增长还可以，但老问题还是没看到改善的迹象：日活用户DAU跟不上MAU的增速，可以说体现出整体用户粘性的下滑。三季度面临了多个监管压力(暑期清朗行动、未成年人保护、直播监管等)，预计用户增长可能不如以往的暑假旺季。\n但海豚君认为，从长期来看，B的价值绝不仅于此。虽然有着不做贴片广告的初心，而当下花火平台属于私域广告性质，给Up主的分成占绝对大头，变相分吃了不少原本属于B站的潜在商业价值。另外，B站当前的用户活跃度(DAU)，公域广告的效果也不能和短视频等其他平台简单对标。\n还是那句老话，B站最有价值就是平台上不断长大成为社会消费主力的Z时代用户包括Up主。这部分用户对B站的价值认可度非常高，虽然高频活跃度不如别的平台(靠算法黏住用户)，但用户会将B站视为社区，而不是一个信息接收的工具平台。\n另外，B站用户中Up主占比一直在升高，体现除了一个长期健康的社区生态，越来越多的UGC内容和参与者，使得B站的直播等打赏类的增值服务会比传统的秀场直播更具备优势。\n如果从股价走势来看，目前的B站已经跌破合理的估值区间，海豚君认为当前的股价隐含着对B站未来过于悲观的成长预期。短期内股价波动更多的还是受到了监管环境的影响，比如特殊年文化内容监管、未成年保护、暑期清朗运动等。\n另外，视频版权监管的压力也对B站造成了一定的影响，尤其对于用户增长、用户粘性方面。预计今年三季度暑期旺季的表现相较往年增长偏弱，结合公司管理层的略保守指引，短期内可能还是走震荡。和其他泛娱乐平台一样，待1-2个季度监管环境缓和后可积极介入。\n本次财报数据详细解读\n1、整体业绩：Beat指引和预期，三季度指引一般\n(1)收入端\n二季度B站实现净营收45亿元人民币，同比增长72%，优于市场一致预期的43亿元(彭博)，beat管理层指引上限。\n\n数据来源：哔哩哔哩财报、海豚投研整理\n在不同业务中，广告收入增速继续亮眼。虽有热度较高的新游发布，但仍然表现不佳，贡献同比快速回落，直播与增值服务加速。\n\n数据来源：哔哩哔哩财报、海豚投研整理\n(2)利润端\n二季度公司毛利率环比下滑2ppt，主要是新游分成增多、内容投资(LPL全球总决赛、电竞常规赛直播权)、提高直播分成(给主播的分成已提升至80%-90%)导致。另外，由于花火的分成大头主要给到了Up主，因此B站的广告毛利率50%左右会明显低于其他平台70-80%的水平。\n\n数据来源：哔哩哔哩财报、海豚投研整理\n经营亏损(GAAP)15.21亿元，超出市场预期的11.88亿元，主要系营销费用率抬升所致。二季度不少新游发布，营销推广支出较多，环比增加了6ppt。除此之外，本季度员工薪酬和股权激励仍然在同比增加。\n\n数据来源：哔哩哔哩财报、海豚投研整理\n2、用户规模：淡季不淡，但多监管下三季度增长或有压力\n二季度用户规模相比上季度净增1380万人，达到2.37亿人，在去年高基数下仍然增长38%，高于市场预期的30%。\n考虑到睿帝此前提出的2023年4亿用户的长期指引，增速按照上一年度8折的消减速度，则今年全年的用户增长速度要超过30%，否则无法完成到2023年底破4亿的目标。(如果消减速度更快，则对今年的增长压力也更大)\n\n数据来源：哔哩哔哩财报、海豚投研整理\n关于用户粘性，老问题仍然存在，虽然有季节性原因，但用户粘性(DAU/MAU)创两年新低。平台的活跃度会影响未来的变现价值空间，尤其是对于广告主来说，更喜欢DAU高或者用户粘性更高的平台。\n\n数据来源：哔哩哔哩财报、海豚投研整理\n不过考虑到视频长短本身对于平台的活跃度也会存在一定影响，视频越长，活跃度也相对一般。从Questmobile关于不同视频app的30日留存来看。基本上遵循短视频>中视频>长视频的规律。公司此前提出，目前还在扩大体量规模出圈阶段，对这一指标的长期指引目标在30%。\n\n值得一提的是，二季度b站针对用户粘性，分别作了两个比较突出的功能页改版，预计三季度用户粘性会有一定改善：\na。 一个是竖屏模式“Story Mode”，类似短视频可以直接上下滑动切换视频，主要目的是增加用户时长。\n\nb。 另一个则是暑期刚上线的功能大改版，突出视频创作功能，以引导更多的用户转化为Up主。\n\n数据来源：哔哩哔哩财报、海豚投研整理\n付费用户上，本季度游戏、大会员以及虚拟物品(如硬币、直播礼物b坷垃等)打赏付费用户受季节性影响，整体付费用户2090万人，付费渗透率环比基本持平，但单用户付费水平下滑趋势还在加速。\n\n数据来源：哔哩哔哩财报、海豚投研整理\n\n数据来源：哔哩哔哩财报、海豚投研整理\n3、广告业务：景气不减，商业化稳步推进\n二季度B站广告收入实现10.5亿元，增速201%，大大超出市场与海豚君的预期(150%)。随着经济复苏广告投放回暖以及B站日益被认可的品牌影响力，有助于继续推动B站广告繁荣。\n\n数据来源：哔哩哔哩财报、海豚投研整理\n目前花火平台B站的自己拿掉的分成大概只有6%，并且按照总交易额确认收入，因此拉低了整体广告的毛利率水平。\n从B站特有的平台调性来看，花火平台的未来贡献也还会显著提升。但对于B站来说，花火平台对整体业绩的贡献，可能短期内并不是B站核心考虑的指标，而更多的是将花火视作一个维护Up主生态的一个主要赋能工具。\n毕竟在B站上，Up主与用户之间的交互高频，甚至存在一些的情感联系。可以视作是一个个私域关系组成。因此Up主也是B站的核心资产。\n海豚君猜测，除了需要补充更多的内容供给，考虑到花火的战略意义，这也是b站在不断扩展Up主规模的原因吧。\n4、游戏：B站的自研手游还是很难打\n二季度B站游戏收入同比下滑1%，对比同行(2季度国内手游市场增速13%)，可以说是很不好看了。虽然市场给予厚望的热门新游《坎公骑冠剑》、《机动战姬》、《刀剑神域》纷纷在二季度发布，但流水表现除了《坎公》将将能看之外，其他都很拉垮。\n\n数据来源：哔哩哔哩财报、海豚投研整理\n从第三方数据Sensor Tower来看，二季度主要靠代理的老游以及《坎公》的流水支撑，而《机动战姬》、《刀剑神域》的热度下滑未免太快。(黑色线为《原神》流水，黄色线为《坎公》流水)\n\n或许是对于自己的能力心中有数，B站在一季度投资了7家游戏公司的基础上，二季度又增加了游戏项目的投资，新增投资6家。\n\n数据来源：IT桔子\n5、增值服务：表现优异，预计视频投币分成以及直播热度带来\n二季度增值业务其实表现不错了，尤其是在整体秀场日暮西山的行业大环境下，实现收入16.4亿元，同比增长98%，略有点低于大行的预期。\n\n数据来源：哔哩哔哩财报、海豚投研整理\nB站的直播与增值服务包括大会员、视频投币分成、直播打赏分成等。从付费用户规模来看，考虑到二季度手游表现不佳，另外4月日漫面临新监管政策(先审再播)预计对大会员收入也有影响，因此剔除掉这两部分收入，海豚君猜测此次新增付费用户、整体直播增与增值服务的高速增长，应该主要由硬币分成提升、直播热度提升带来。\n这与传统秀场直播不同，目前B站的直播仍然在高速渗透的成长阶段。\n6、电商等其他业务：占比虽小，势头更猛\n二季度电商继续高增长近一倍。但考虑这一块收入(会员购)主要靠核心动漫用户消费驱动，目前占比还相对较小13%。但随着Z时代用户中二次元群体的不断壮大，未来的前景也不可过分小觑。因此，海豚君建议投资者可适度关注这一块业务。\n数据来源：哔哩哔哩财报、海豚投研整理","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"09626":0.9,"BILI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2364,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":838631181,"gmtCreate":1629389511643,"gmtModify":1676530027165,"author":{"id":"4089193130492580","authorId":"4089193130492580","name":"Kyochan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4fc81b464ccbd183246bb9a55efdc950","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4089193130492580","authorIdStr":"4089193130492580"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$Apple(AAPL)$</a>fly fly fly","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$Apple(AAPL)$</a>fly fly fly","text":"$Apple(AAPL)$fly fly fly","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/838631181","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2390,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":839446435,"gmtCreate":1629177162127,"gmtModify":1676529954923,"author":{"id":"4089193130492580","authorId":"4089193130492580","name":"Kyochan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4fc81b464ccbd183246bb9a55efdc950","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4089193130492580","authorIdStr":"4089193130492580"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"fly","listText":"fly","text":"fly","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/839446435","repostId":"1191687734","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1191687734","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1629170912,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1191687734?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-08-17 11:28","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Modern Dental once rose by more than 30%, expecting net profit to turn losses into profits in the first half of the year","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1191687734","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"8月17日讯，现代牙科盘中一度涨逾30%，现报8.89港元，股价创2个月新高，市值87亿港元。公司昨晚发盈喜，预期今年上半年未经审核的纯利将介乎2.3亿元至2.45亿元，而上年同期为亏损约为1.4亿元","content":"<p>August 17th,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03600\">Modern dentistry</a>It once rose more than 30% during the session and is now trading at HK $8.89. The stock price hit a 2-month high, with a market value of HK $8.7 billion.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/763dc66ab9c40c9275c7db254b9d1438\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">The company issued a profit announcement last night. It is expected that the unaudited net profit in the first half of this year will range from 230 million yuan to 245 million yuan, compared with a loss of approximately 140 million yuan in the same period last year. According to the announcement, the turnaround from loss to profit was mainly driven by the group's strong sales performance amid the steady recovery of the dental industry. The company expects to publish its results by the end of August.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Modern Dental once rose by more than 30%, expecting net profit to turn losses into profits in the first half of the year</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nModern Dental once rose by more than 30%, expecting net profit to turn losses into profits in the first half of the year\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-08-17 11:28</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>August 17th,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03600\">Modern dentistry</a>It once rose more than 30% during the session and is now trading at HK $8.89. The stock price hit a 2-month high, with a market value of HK $8.7 billion.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/763dc66ab9c40c9275c7db254b9d1438\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">The company issued a profit announcement last night. It is expected that the unaudited net profit in the first half of this year will range from 230 million yuan to 245 million yuan, compared with a loss of approximately 140 million yuan in the same period last year. According to the announcement, the turnaround from loss to profit was mainly driven by the group's strong sales performance amid the steady recovery of the dental industry. The company expects to publish its results by the end of August.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"03600":"现代牙科"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1191687734","content_text":"8月17日讯，现代牙科盘中一度涨逾30%，现报8.89港元，股价创2个月新高，市值87亿港元。公司昨晚发盈喜，预期今年上半年未经审核的纯利将介乎2.3亿元至2.45亿元，而上年同期为亏损约为1.4亿元。公告称，转亏为盈主要受集团在牙科行业稳健复苏形势下取得强劲的销售表现所驱动。公司预计于8月底刊发业绩。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"03600":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2211,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":830221539,"gmtCreate":1629076748621,"gmtModify":1676529921651,"author":{"id":"4089193130492580","authorId":"4089193130492580","name":"Kyochan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4fc81b464ccbd183246bb9a55efdc950","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4089193130492580","authorIdStr":"4089193130492580"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"gogo","listText":"gogo","text":"gogo","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/830221539","repostId":"2159212005","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2159212005","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1629073072,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2159212005?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-08-16 08:17","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Market pressure is mounting, all eyes are on the annual meeting of global central banks in Jackson Hole","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2159212005","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"美国银行分析指出，随着杰克逊霍尔年会的到来，利率风险（duration risk）处于历史最高水平。实际无风险利率每发生1个基点的变化，就会转化为标普500指数20-30个基点的波动。","content":"<p>As the annual meeting of global central banks in Jackson Hole approaches, investors wait for the signal that the Federal Reserve may give about Taper at that time, and the market falls into a kind of quiet before the storm.</p><p>The annual global central bank annual meeting will be held in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, USA from August 26th to 28th, local time. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell previously confirmed that he would deliver a speech at the annual meeting, but did not disclose the theme of the speech. However, according to past experience, the Federal Reserve often throws \"blockbusters\" at the Jackson Hole annual meeting.</p><p>At present, the market generally expects that the Federal Reserve will provide clues on the timing and method of reducing bond purchases at this annual meeting. However, the repeated epidemic has added variables.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>Strategists such as Mark Cabana said in a research note called \"Jackson Hold\" that U.S. Treasury Bond generally tends to rise before the annual meeting, but there is little change in the two weeks after the meeting.</p><p>Cabana and others wrote: \"We will not be surprised if similar price changes occur this year. Powell is expected to give a speech on the progress of the U.S. economy since the new crown epidemic and acknowledge that the FOMC will continue to discuss tapering quantitative easing, but will not send a signal.\"</p><p><h2>The market is ready</h2>However, U.S. debt has entered a state of preparation, and the trend has been almost flat in the past week.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a>Customer data showed that the number of customers neutral to U.S. Treasury Bond hit the highest level since February.</p><p>On August 6, after the release of stronger-than-expected July non-farm payrolls data, the 10-year U.S. Treasury Bond yield once rebounded from a six-month low, but the current rebound trend has stopped, and the yield has dropped to around 1.3%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/262bd64bc95b5fd890b67580c26ea25b\" tg-width=\"906\" tg-height=\"535\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>Unlike the calm bond market, U.S. stocks are gaining momentum, and European stocks have even risen for ten consecutive years, setting a record for the longest winning streak since 1999. But the more it rises, the higher the risk of aggregation.</p><p>Savita Subramanian, chief equity strategist at Bank of America, warned in a note that interest rate risk is at an all-time high as the Jackson Hole annual meeting approaches. Interest rate risk refers to the adverse effects caused by changes in interest rates.</p><p>Of the 20 market metrics the bank tracks, most are already statistically too expensive, Subramanian said. Amid inflation and a slowing economy, earnings growth is expected to slow sharply in the second half of the year, and record interest rate risk means that if interest rates only rise slightly, the decline of stocks will be painful.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/778e13cf47565508584080338c46b772\" tg-width=\"896\" tg-height=\"508\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>Subramanian noted that a growing number of Fed officials are urging a tapering of bond purchases, with market implied volatility rising after the strong jobs report.</p><p>In this case, the bank's fair value stress test shows that every 1 basis point change in the real risk-free rate translates into a 20-30 basis point move in the S&P 500.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/176effeb1dc70ff8093a1b7267a7ef15\" tg-width=\"837\" tg-height=\"437\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>Therefore, unlike other banks who rushed to raise their S&P expectations when the market was higher, Bank of America remained the only bear, with its 10-year yield forecast of 1.9% by year-end, up about 55 basis points from now, which would cause the S&P 500 to fall about 15%.</p>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Market pressure is mounting, all eyes are on the annual meeting of global central banks in Jackson Hole</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMarket pressure is mounting, all eyes are on the annual meeting of global central banks in Jackson Hole\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-16 08:17</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>As the annual meeting of global central banks in Jackson Hole approaches, investors wait for the signal that the Federal Reserve may give about Taper at that time, and the market falls into a kind of quiet before the storm.</p><p>The annual global central bank annual meeting will be held in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, USA from August 26th to 28th, local time. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell previously confirmed that he would deliver a speech at the annual meeting, but did not disclose the theme of the speech. However, according to past experience, the Federal Reserve often throws \"blockbusters\" at the Jackson Hole annual meeting.</p><p>At present, the market generally expects that the Federal Reserve will provide clues on the timing and method of reducing bond purchases at this annual meeting. However, the repeated epidemic has added variables.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>Strategists such as Mark Cabana said in a research note called \"Jackson Hold\" that U.S. Treasury Bond generally tends to rise before the annual meeting, but there is little change in the two weeks after the meeting.</p><p>Cabana and others wrote: \"We will not be surprised if similar price changes occur this year. Powell is expected to give a speech on the progress of the U.S. economy since the new crown epidemic and acknowledge that the FOMC will continue to discuss tapering quantitative easing, but will not send a signal.\"</p><p><h2>The market is ready</h2>However, U.S. debt has entered a state of preparation, and the trend has been almost flat in the past week.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a>Customer data showed that the number of customers neutral to U.S. Treasury Bond hit the highest level since February.</p><p>On August 6, after the release of stronger-than-expected July non-farm payrolls data, the 10-year U.S. Treasury Bond yield once rebounded from a six-month low, but the current rebound trend has stopped, and the yield has dropped to around 1.3%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/262bd64bc95b5fd890b67580c26ea25b\" tg-width=\"906\" tg-height=\"535\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>Unlike the calm bond market, U.S. stocks are gaining momentum, and European stocks have even risen for ten consecutive years, setting a record for the longest winning streak since 1999. But the more it rises, the higher the risk of aggregation.</p><p>Savita Subramanian, chief equity strategist at Bank of America, warned in a note that interest rate risk is at an all-time high as the Jackson Hole annual meeting approaches. Interest rate risk refers to the adverse effects caused by changes in interest rates.</p><p>Of the 20 market metrics the bank tracks, most are already statistically too expensive, Subramanian said. Amid inflation and a slowing economy, earnings growth is expected to slow sharply in the second half of the year, and record interest rate risk means that if interest rates only rise slightly, the decline of stocks will be painful.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/778e13cf47565508584080338c46b772\" tg-width=\"896\" tg-height=\"508\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>Subramanian noted that a growing number of Fed officials are urging a tapering of bond purchases, with market implied volatility rising after the strong jobs report.</p><p>In this case, the bank's fair value stress test shows that every 1 basis point change in the real risk-free rate translates into a 20-30 basis point move in the S&P 500.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/176effeb1dc70ff8093a1b7267a7ef15\" tg-width=\"837\" tg-height=\"437\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>Therefore, unlike other banks who rushed to raise their S&P expectations when the market was higher, Bank of America remained the only bear, with its 10-year yield forecast of 1.9% by year-end, up about 55 basis points from now, which would cause the S&P 500 to fall about 15%.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3637968\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fd680cd945fd32917c8ece66ec685e5f","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空","GOVT":"iShares安硕核心美国国债ETF","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","TLT":"20+年以上美国国债ETF-iShares","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares","OEX":"标普100","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","IEF":"债券指数ETF-iShares Barclays 7-10年","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares","SPY":"标普500ETF","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","IEI":"iShares Barclays 3-7 Year Trea","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares","SHY":"债券指数ETF-iShares Barclays 1-3年国债","BAC":"美国银行","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares","DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3637968","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2159212005","content_text":"随着杰克逊霍尔（Jackson Hole）全球央行年会的临近，投资者静待届时美联储可能给出的关于Taper的信号，市场陷入一种暴风雨来临前的宁静。\n一年一度的全球央行年会将于当地时间8月26日至28日在美国怀俄明州杰克逊霍尔召开。美联储主席鲍威尔此前确认将在年会上发表讲话，但并未透露讲话的主题。不过按以往经验看，美联储常常会在杰克逊霍尔年会上，扔出“重磅炸弹”。\n目前市场普遍预期，美联储会在此次年会上，为缩减债券购买的时点和方式提供线索。不过疫情的反复增添了变数。\n美国银行Mark Cabana等策略师在一份名为\" Jackson Hold \"的研究报告中称，美国国债一般倾向于在年会前上涨，但会后两周内几乎没有变化。\nCabana等写道：“今年如果出现类似的价格变动不会让我们感到意外。预计鲍威尔将发表演讲，阐述新冠疫情以来美国经济的进展，并承认FOMC将继续讨论缩减量化宽松，但不会发出信号。”\n市场严阵以待\n不过美债已经进入了严阵以待，过去一周走势几乎持平。摩根大通的客户数据显示，对美国国债持中性立场的客户数量创2月份以来最高水平。\n8月6日，在强于预期的7月份非农就业数据公布后，10年期美国国债收益率一度从6个月低点反弹，但目前反弹趋势已经停止，收益率降至1.3%左右。\n\n与债市的平静不同，美股势头强劲，欧股甚至连续十年上涨，创1999年以来最长连涨记录。但越是上涨，聚集的风险越高。\n美国银行首席股票策略师Savita Subramanian在一份报告中警告称，随着杰克逊霍尔年会的到来，利率风险（duration risk）处于历史最高水平。利率风险是指因为利率变动而产生的不利影响。\nSubramanian表示，在该行追踪的20个市场指标中，从统计学上来看，大多数都已经太昂贵了。在通胀和经济放缓影响下，预计下半年盈利增长大幅放缓，创纪录的利率风险意味着，如果利率仅仅是小幅上升，股市的下跌都会是令人痛苦的。\n\nSubramanian指出，越来越多的美联储官员正在敦促缩减购债规模，在强劲的就业报告公布后，市场隐含波动率上升了。\n在这种情况下，该行的公允价值压力测试表明，实际无风险利率每发生1个基点的变化，就会转化为标普500指数20-30个基点的波动。\n\n因此，与其他银行在市场走高时匆忙上调标普预期不同，美国银行仍然是唯一的看跌者，它对10年期收益率的预测是年底前达到1.9%，较目前上涨约55个基点，这将导致标普500指数下跌约15%。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.9,"513500":0.9,"MNQmain":0.9,"SDS":0.9,"BAC":0.9,"IVV":0.9,"SPY":0.9,"UPRO":0.9,"SPXU":0.9,"SQQQ":0.9,"SDOW":0.9,"ZFmain":0.9,"OEX":0.9,"QID":0.9,"QQQ":0.9,"SHY":0.9,"TQQQ":0.9,"IEF":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"SH":0.9,"QLD":0.9,"TNmain":0.9,"TLT":0.9,"UDOW":0.9,"ZBmain":0.9,"ZTmain":0.9,"ESmain":0.9,"PSQ":0.9,"DXD":0.9,"SSO":0.9,"OEF":0.9,"DJX":0.9,"GOVT":0.9,"IEI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"DOG":0.9,"NQmain":0.9,"UBmain":0.9,"DDM":0.9,"ZNmain":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2490,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":830885930,"gmtCreate":1629046232120,"gmtModify":1676529916224,"author":{"id":"4089193130492580","authorId":"4089193130492580","name":"Kyochan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4fc81b464ccbd183246bb9a55efdc950","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4089193130492580","authorIdStr":"4089193130492580"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"gogoog","listText":"gogoog","text":"gogoog","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/830885930","repostId":"1118683392","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1118683392","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1628926455,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1118683392?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-08-14 15:34","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Ren Zeping: 2021 Global Housing Price Trends","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1118683392","media":"格隆汇","summary":"推动新一轮房改（新房改）迫在眉睫。","content":"<p>Author: Ren Zeping Team</p><p><b>introduction</b></p><p>We put forward an analysis framework widely circulated in the industry: real estate looks at population in the long term, land in the medium term and finance in the short term. This article looks at the global housing price trend and examines the factors and laws that drive the housing price trend in different economies and major metropolitan areas.</p><p><b>The long-term differences in local currency housing prices in different economies can be explained in four aspects: the income effect brought by economic growth, the population effect caused by changes in total population and structure, the monetary illusion brought by money supply, and the supply and demand pattern influenced by housing system.</b></p><p><b>In the past 51 years, housing prices in 23 economies have increased by an average of 29.6 times, with an average annual growth rate of over 6%. According to the increase in house prices, it can be divided into three categories:</b>First, the cumulative increase of house prices in four economies, including South Africa and New Zealand, is more than 60 times, with an average annual growth rate of 8.5%-10%; Second, there are 14 economies such as Ireland and Australia where the cumulative increase in house prices is between 5-50 times and the average annual growth rate is between 5.5% and 8%; Third, there are five economies, including Thailand and Switzerland, where the cumulative increase in house prices is less than 5 times and the average annual growth rate is less than 4%.</p><p><b>During the epidemic, housing prices rose significantly, which was due to the implementation of quantitative easing policies in various countries and the release of improvement demand accumulated by the epidemic.</b>In the past year, house prices in major economies have increased by more than 7% on average, Turkey by 32% and New Zealand by 22%, while the growth rate in major Asian countries is lower than the global average, with Singapore having the largest increase of 6.1%; China's house prices rose by 4.3%.</p><p><b>The metropolitan area with the inflow of population within a country has the largest increase in housing prices.</b>House prices in London have risen 113 times in 53 years, and the increase in Inner London is even greater; Land prices in Japan rose 82 times 36 years before the bubble burst, and the increase in six core cities was as high as 210 times.</p><p><b>We call for the urgency of promoting a new round of housing reform (new housing reform), speeding up the construction of a long-term mechanism for real estate with the linkage between people and land, controlling currency and property tax as the core, and promoting the long-term stable and healthy development of the real estate market. There is still the last ten-year window.</b></p><p><b>text</b></p><p>1 Differences in housing price increases among different economies: economic growth, demographic changes, money supply, housing system</p><p><b>1.1 There are obvious differences in housing price trends in 23 economies in the past 51 years</b></p><p><b>From Q1 of 1970 to Q1 of 2021, housing prices in 23 economies rose by an average of 29.6 times, with an average annual growth rate of over 6%. According to the increase in house prices, it can be divided into three categories:</b></p><p><b>First, the cumulative increase of house prices in four economies, including South Africa, New Zealand, Spain and the United Kingdom, is more than 60 times, with an average annual growth rate of 8.5%-10%.</b>The cumulative increase of house prices in South Africa and New Zealand is as high as 110.5 times and 86.9 times respectively, with an average annual growth rate of 9.7% and 9.2% respectively, ranking first and second among 23 economies respectively; House prices in the UK have increased by 62.3 times cumulatively, with an average annual growth rate of 8.6%, ranking third among 23 economies; In Spain, house prices increased by 60.2 times from Q1 of 1979 to Q1 of 2021, with an average annual growth rate of 8.6%.</p><p><b>Second, there are 14 economies in Ireland, Australia, Hong Kong, Norway, Italy, Canada, Sweden, France, Denmark, the Netherlands, Finland, Malaysia, the United States and Belgium, where the cumulative increase of house prices is between 5-50 times and the average annual growth rate is between 5.5% and 8%.</b>House prices in Ireland and Australia have increased by 48.1 times and 47.3 times, with an average annual growth rate of 7.9%; Housing prices in Hong Kong, China increased by 19.9 times from Q1 of 1979 to Q1 of 2021, with an average annual growth rate of 7.7%; Malaysia's housing prices rose 5.1 times from Q1 of 1988 to Q1 of 2021, with an average annual growth rate of 5.6%; The growth rate of the other 10 countries is between 15-40 times, with an average annual growth rate of 5.5%-7.5%.</p><p><b>Third, there are five economies: Thailand, Switzerland, South Korea, Germany and Japan, where the cumulative increase in house prices is less than 5 times and the average annual growth rate is less than 4%.</b>Among them, Thailand rose 1.8 times from 1991Q1 to 2021Q1, with an average annual growth rate of 3.5%; South Korea's housing prices rose 3.2 times from Q1 of 1975 to Q1 of 2021, with an average annual growth rate of 3.2%; From Q1 of 1970 to Q1 of 2021, housing prices in Switzerland, Germany, and Japan increased by 4.8 times, 3.6 times, and 2.7 times cumulatively, with an average annual growth rate of 3.5%, 3.0%, and 2.6%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eeac7b4ce1943e6a27a61f1ad0644753\" tg-width=\"967\" tg-height=\"681\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b27a668cefa0b6a8cb027f216644c95b\" tg-width=\"966\" tg-height=\"695\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><b>With the deepening of economic and financial globalization, the linkage of global housing price trends has gradually increased.</b>For example, house prices in the four Nordic countries fell in the middle and late 1980s, in Japan and South Korea in the early 1990s, in Southeast Asia in 1997, and in global real estate in 2007.<b>Judging from the trend of housing prices, 23 economies in the past 51 years can be roughly divided into four categories:</b></p><p><b>First, there are four economies in which house prices basically continue to rise and the adjustment range is small during the period, including Australia, New Zealand, Canada and France.</b>Since 1970, the cumulative decline in any downward cycle of the above four countries has not exceeded 9%. Among them, Australia, New Zealand, Canada and other three countries have not experienced two consecutive years of decline; France made three significant adjustments in 1992-1995, 2008-2009, and 2011-2015, but the cumulative decline in the three times never exceeded 7%.</p><p><b>Second, there are 14 economies in which house prices have fallen sharply but have risen higher than the previous high in the later period, including Britain, the United States, Switzerland, the Netherlands, South Africa, Norway, Hong Kong, Malaysia and Thailand.</b>For example, house prices in the Netherlands plummeted by nearly 30% in 1979-1982 and more than 19% in 2008-2013, in South Africa by 11% in 1984-1986, in Finland by 37% in 1990-1992, in Switzerland by 22% in 1990-1998, in Malaysia and Thailand by more than 11% in 1997-1998 and 1998-1999 respectively, in Hong Kong, China by more than 60% in 1998-2003, in the United States by more than 30% in 2007-2011, and in the United Kingdom by nearly 11% in 1990-1992 and 13% in 2008-2009. House prices in the above economies have continued to rise after a sharp decline, and now they have exceeded their previous highs.</p><p><b>Third, there are four economies where the housing price bubble burst in the early stage and is still below the high point, including Japan, Spain, Ireland and Italy.</b>Although times and countries are different, the accumulation of previous real estate bubbles has been stimulated by excess liquidity and low interest rates without exception, while the collapse of previous real estate bubbles has been related to monetary tightening and rate hike. Housing prices in Japan, Spain, Ireland, and Italy peaked in 1990, 2007, 2007, and 2008 respectively. Housing prices in the first three countries have rebounded slightly in recent years. In 2020, housing prices in the above four countries are only equivalent to 63.4% and 84.7% of the peak respectively., 84.8%, 83.2%.</p><p><b>Fourth, there is only one economy in Germany where the trend of housing prices is basically stable and the increase is generally small.</b>Since 1970, German housing prices have experienced three relatively large rising cycles: a cumulative increase of nearly 1.8 times from 1971 to 1981, a cumulative increase of 35.1% from 1987 to 1994, and a cumulative increase of 67.6% in Q1 from 2009 to 2021; In any downward cycle, the cumulative decline has never exceeded 10%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c9b91523fdf9fd2bb5f4d451baedf75\" tg-width=\"981\" tg-height=\"686\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3be2e050170ea5199c62f80800d0fb6f\" tg-width=\"967\" tg-height=\"698\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d4915716ab9826f9a5e64f8c294cdcd6\" tg-width=\"968\" tg-height=\"694\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/411177ccdf3f9b3d00fb572c5672563e\" tg-width=\"967\" tg-height=\"689\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><b>1.2 The long-term trend of local currency housing prices is related to economic growth, population changes, money supply and housing system</b></p><p><b>The long-term trend differences of local currency housing prices in different economies can be explained in four aspects: the income effect brought by economic growth, the population effect caused by changes in total population and structure, the monetary illusion brought by money supply, and the supply and demand pattern influenced by housing system.</b>Real estate has both consumer goods attributes (housing demand, including rigid demand and improvement demand) and financial attributes (investment speculative demand, which can be leveraged), so house prices not only depend on supply and demand (population and residents' income, land supply), but also closely related to money supply. From the operation experience of the global real estate market, in the absence of disputes, plagues, natural disasters, economic and financial crises and other impacts, a country's housing prices have risen for a long time with economic development.</p><p><b>From 1970 to Q1 of 2021, the average annual growth rate of local currency housing prices and the local currency nominal GDP growth rate of 23 economies were 6.3% and 7.5% respectively. The two were relatively close, and the correlation coefficient was 0.52;</b>Excluding Thailand and Malaysia, the correlation coefficient of 21 economies is 0.54; Excluding Thailand, Malaysia, South Korea, and Hong Kong, China, the correlation coefficient of 19 economies reaches 0.87. Nominal GDP can be decomposed into per capita constant price GDP, population, GDP deflator, and the housing system that affects the supply and demand pattern. The four factors can better explain the long-term trend differences of housing prices in different economies.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a7af05caae4ef416d72059040f7bd4d3\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"653\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><b>1) The income effect brought by economic growth. The growth of constant price GDP reflects the real economic growth after excluding prices. The growth of per capita constant price GDP in local currency means that the actual purchasing power of residents increases and the demand for real estate increases.</b>In Q1 from 1970 to 2021, the average annual growth rate of local currency at constant prices in 23 economies was 2.7% and the median was 2.2%. The average annual growth rate of local currency at constant prices per capita was 1.9% and the median was 1.6% (The calculation of data for some economies starts when housing price data is available, and Spain, Hong Kong, South Korea, Malaysia, and Thailand starts in 1971, 1979, 1975, 1988, and 1991 respectively). Among them, South Korea's per capita GDP at constant local currency has an average annual growth rate of 5.3%, Ireland, Hong Kong, Malaysia and Thailand have an average annual growth rate of more than 2.5%, other economies are mostly below 2%, and South Africa has only 0.2%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/de3b1d4d783da6689b6041becd9503e2\" tg-width=\"806\" tg-height=\"577\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><b>2) Population effects caused by changes in total population and structure.</b>The impact of population on housing prices at the economic level is mainly reflected in the following three aspects:</p><p><b>First, changes in the total population affect housing prices.</b>Changes in total population include natural growth and transnational population mobility. Generally speaking, changes in population size are directly proportional to housing demand. According to World Bank data, the global fertility rate in 2019 was 2.4, of which the total fertility rates of high-income, middle-high-income, low-middle-income, and low-income economies were 1.6, 1.8, 2.7, and 4.6 respectively. The fertility rates of high-income and middle-high-income economies are no longer enough to make up for the generational replacement of the population. But high-income economies have attracted large cross-border inflows of people. From 1960 to 2020, the cumulative net inflow of population from high-income economies was 140 million, and the proportions from middle-high, middle-low, and low-income economies were 26.4%, 50.0%, and 27.1% respectively. The living standard of the population in middle-and high-income economies is close to that in high-income economies, and the migration motivation is not strong; Low-income economies have strong migration motivation, but it is difficult to bear the migration cost; Low-and middle-income economies have strong migration motivation and can bear the migration cost. According to United Nations statistics, Germany's population once decreased by about 2.3 million from 2004 to 2011, and then due to immigration's return to growth. Japan's population began to grow negatively in 2009, and Italy's population began to grow negatively in 2016.</p><p><b>Second, demographic changes affect housing prices.</b>Demographic changes such as the main home buyers aged 20-50 and the size of households will lead to changes in housing demand. In terms of household size, due to the delayed marriage age, the increase of unmarried rate and divorce rate, the low fertility rate, the prolonged life expectancy, the aging population, population mobility, etc., the global household size is becoming miniaturized, which increases a certain housing demand. From 1960 to 2015, the size of households in the United States dropped from 3.33 to 2.54, and that in Japan dropped from 4.14 to 2.39; Furthermore, South Korea decreased from 4.78 to 2.73 in 1980-2015. In terms of the main home buyers, the population aged 20-49 in the United States continues to grow, and Japan, South Korea, and the United Kingdom peaked in 1996, 2004, and 2011 respectively. Changes in the size of the main home buyers have a very significant impact on the real estate market.</p><p><b>Third, the population affects housing prices through economic growth.</b>The demographic dividend is an important source of the high-speed economic growth of many catch-up economies in the past. After the demographic dividend disappears, the economy often turns to medium or low-speed growth.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/32d6b01bca24010940600884b4f55b7e\" tg-width=\"968\" tg-height=\"691\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/373bd33ed383da37d0380f150e39c70b\" tg-width=\"968\" tg-height=\"687\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><b>3) Monetary illusion brought about by money supply.</b>From the international experience, in the process of economic development, most countries have varying degrees of over-issuance of currency, which leads to changes in asset prices. Generally speaking, a high growth rate of broad money supply leads to a high inflation. From 1970 to 2021Q1, the average annual GDP deflator of the 23 economies was 4.3% and the median was 4.0%, which was not only close to the average annual growth rate of housing prices of 6.3% in the 23 economies in absolute terms, but also The fluctuations are relatively consistent. For example, in Q1 from 1970 to 2021, South Africa's broad money increased by 532.5 times. Under the substantial excess of money, South Africa's nominal GDP increased by 390.2 times, its real GDP only increased by 1.9 times, the GDP deflator increased by 130.2 times, and house prices increased by 101.6 times; U.S. broad money increased by 33.2 times, nominal GDP increased by 19.0 times, real GDP increased by 2.8 times, GDP deflator increased by 5.2 times, and house prices increased by 13 times. However, over-issuance of currency can easily breed asset price bubbles such as real estate, and in extreme cases, it may even lead to economic crises, such as the real estate bubble in Japan in 1990s and the subprime mortgage crisis in the United States in 2007.</p><p><b>Due to the rapid growth of broad money in emerging economies, the increase of house prices in local currency is greater than that in developed economies.</b>According to World Bank data, the average annual growth rate of broad money in nine representative emerging economies such as India and Mexico from 2001 to 2020 was 13.7%, which was significantly higher than the 5.3% in six representative developed economies such as Britain, the United States and Japan. According to BIS statistics, the average annual growth rate of housing prices in emerging economies was 6.8% from 2010 to 2020, exceeding the average annual growth rate of housing prices in developed economies of 3.8%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d7906272da5dc3fe1c22ea5aa0f4e99e\" tg-width=\"967\" tg-height=\"683\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><b>4) The supply and demand pattern affected by the housing system.</b>Housing system is the orientation of a country's real estate market. A good housing system can stabilize housing prices for a long time and support the development of the real economy. A bad housing system may cause housing prices to soar and plummet, weaken or even hollow out the real economy. The key to the long-term stability of Germany's housing prices lies in the design of its housing-oriented housing system. The three pillars are: neutral and prudent monetary policy and housing financial system, a tax system that encourages residents to hold housing for a long time and cracks down on speculation, and a rental system that protects tenants' rights and interests and encourages long-term renting. At present, Singapore has formed a dual supply system with HDB flats as the mainstay and private houses as the supplement. The supply structure presents a ladder distribution of \"low-rent housing-low-price housing-improved HDB flats-private houses\", and the housing ownership rate exceeds 90%, basically realizing home ownership.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/32a2ee39af0d3a9fd9990c2373fa67d0\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"646\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><b>The price increase of US $1.3 is significantly different from that of local currency</b></p><p><b>In terms of U.S. dollars, from 1970 to Q1 2021, the increase in housing prices in 23 economies changed significantly, and there is a certain correlation between the increase in U.S. dollar housing prices and the growth of U.S. dollar nominal GDP. If an economy's currency excess is more serious than that of the United States, the currency will depreciate against the US dollar. Therefore, a sharp rise in local currency house prices does not mean a sharp rise in US dollar house prices, and it does not necessarily have investment value globally.</b>According to the increase of US dollar house prices, it can be roughly divided into four categories: First, the cumulative increase exceeds 50 times and the average annual growth exceeds 8%, only one in New Zealand. Second, the cumulative increase is 25-35 times and the average annual growth rate is 7%-7.5%. There are three economies: the United Kingdom, the Netherlands and Spain. Third, the cumulative increase is 10-20 times and the average annual growth rate is 5%-6.9%. There are 14 economies including Ireland, Australia, Norway, Belgium, Italy and Japan. Fourth, the cumulative growth rate is less than 9 times and the average annual growth rate is less than 5%. There are five economies: Germany, Malaysia, South Africa, Thailand and South Korea. Compared with the increase in local currency house prices, the biggest change is in South Africa. From 1970 to 2021Q1, the increase in local currency house prices was as high as 110.5 times, but the increase in US dollar house prices was only 3.8 times. In addition, the price of local currency in Switzerland increased by only 4.8 times, but the price of US dollar reached 25.9 times; Italian currency house prices rose 34.7 times, but US dollar house prices shrank to 12.1 times; German local currency house prices rose 3.6 times, and US dollar house prices rose 8.8 times.</p><p><b>From the correlation coefficient,</b>The correlation coefficient between US dollar house price growth and US dollar nominal GDP growth in 23 economies is only 0.20, which is weak. However, if South Korea, where US dollar nominal GDP has increased by 75.3 times and US dollar house price has increased by only 0.7 times, and Ireland, where US dollar nominal GDP has increased by 99.6 times and US dollar house price has increased by only 28.7 times, the correlation coefficient of the remaining 21 economies is 0.77; This shows that from the perspective of global real estate asset allocation, the positive correlation between the growth of US dollar house prices and the growth of US dollar nominal GDP in an economy is generally established. The difference in the long-term trend of US dollar house prices in different economies can also be decomposed by corresponding factors similar to the trend of local currency house prices in the previous period. The difference is that the exchange rate mechanism eliminates the currency excessive issuance factor of an economy relative to the United States.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3cfaeece0e6f1a8b3cdfe7ae7493e4fc\" tg-width=\"968\" tg-height=\"692\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><b>1.4 Global housing prices have increased significantly under the epidemic</b></p><p><b>In the past year, house prices in major economies have risen by more than 7% on average, Turkey by 32% and New Zealand by more than 20%.</b>According to KnightFrank data, house prices in Turkey rose by 32% from Q1 2020 to Q1 2021, topping the list; New Zealand, which was followed closely, rose 22%; Luxembourg ranked third, with an increase of 16.6%; Slovakia ranked fourth, with an increase of 15.5%; The United States ranked fifth, with a 13% increase, the largest increase since 2005. However, the growth rate of major Asian countries is lower than the global average, and Singapore's house price has the largest increase of 6.1%; Japan, which was followed closely, rose 5.7%; China's house prices rose by 4.3%.</p><p><b>During the epidemic, the large increase in housing prices was due to the implementation of quantitative easing policies in various countries and the release of improvement demand accumulated by the epidemic.</b>1) From the perspective of monetary policy, in order to stimulate economic recovery under the impact of the epidemic, central banks of various countries have implemented quantitative easing policies. On the one hand, under quantitative easing's policy, there has been more liquidity in the market, and it has reached the hands of the people through corporate bailout funds and unemployment benefits. At the same time, under the loose monetary policy, mortgage interest rates have been reduced. For example, the 30-year fixed mortgage interest rate anchored by the American Mortgage Bankers Association has reached a record low of 3.08%. On the other hand, the currency devaluation brought about by quantitative easing's policies has made people eager to find value-preserving assets, and real estate with value-preserving and appreciating attributes has become the first choice for investment. 2) From the perspective of demand, the backlog of improvement demand during the epidemic will be released after the epidemic is controlled to a certain extent. Secondly, \"black swan\" events such as the epidemic have caused more and more investors to try to reduce risks by diversifying the allocation of assets, and owning a second home has become the choice of more high-net-worth individuals. 3) From the perspective of supply, loose monetary policy has triggered a general rise in asset prices, and rising raw material prices have increased construction costs. At the same time, the epidemic has led to a shortage of workers, exacerbating the tight supply of raw materials, further pushing up raw material prices, and in turn pushing up housing prices.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/834288b9b8894d0402b3c3f3f5cd3a38\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"639\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>2 Which region within a country has the largest increase in house prices: the metropolitan area with population inflow</p><p><b>2.1 UK: London house prices have risen 113 times in 53 years, and Inner London has increased even more</b></p><p>There are three areas of London: the City of London, Greater London, and the London metropolitan area. The City of London is the City of London, with a small area. Generally speaking, London refers to the Greater London area, including 319 square kilometers of inner London and 1,254 square kilometers of outer London, with a total land area of 1,573 square kilometers, accounting for 0.6% of the UK; The London metropolitan area consists of Greater London and surrounding areas. Due to urban planning problems and other prominent diseases in big cities, the British government once controlled the population of London, especially inner London, moved industries out after World War II, and built a large number of new cities. From 1941 to 1991, the population of London dropped from 8.62 million to 6.39 million, and then rose to 8.82 million in 2017, currently accounting for 13.4% of the British population. However, under the influence of economy, the population around London has been concentrated for a long time. From 1931 to 2001, the population in southeastern England increased from less than 13 million to more than 18 million, accounting for 27.5% to 31.1%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/02ca4c76a629e8fce4ea2dff163fba65\" tg-width=\"966\" tg-height=\"708\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><b>In the past 53 years, house prices in Greater London have increased by 113 times, far exceeding the average increase of house prices in Britain and England (71 and 81 times), and the nominal GDP increase in Britain (51 times).</b>According to data from the Office of National Statistics (ONS), in the United Kingdom, from 1968 to March 2021, house prices in Greater London rose from 4,400 pounds/unit to 500,000 pounds/unit, and in England rose from 3,400 pounds/unit to 275,000 pounds/unit, nationwide from 3,600 pounds/unit to 256,000 pounds/unit. House prices in London have increased by 113 times, higher than 71 times nationwide and 81 times in England. During the same period (1967-2020), the nominal GDP of the United Kingdom increased by 50.7 times, with an average annual growth rate of 7.7%, and the increase in house prices significantly outperformed the nominal GDP growth.</p><p><b>Looking at the stages, the increase of house prices in Greater London, England and Britain was very close before 1994, but the fluctuation increased significantly after 1995, especially after the global financial crisis in 2008.</b>From 1968 to 1994, house prices in Greater London, England and the United Kingdom increased by 15.0 times, 14.7 times and 14.6 times respectively, with small differences; But from then until March 2018, the increase in house prices was significantly differentiated, which were 5.3 times, 3.5 times and 3 times respectively. Affected by the 2008 financial crisis, house prices in Greater London, England and the United Kingdom fell by 16.6%, 15.0% and 14.9% year-on-year in April 2009; After that, under the background of monetary stimulus quantitative easing, house prices gradually picked up, with average annual growth rates of 7.5%, 4.5% and 4.1% by March 2018, respectively.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/65731004c8f9a4f7c0bc36cc5cfb211a\" tg-width=\"970\" tg-height=\"679\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><b>From the inside of London metropolitan area, house prices in Greater London have increased by more than 6.5 times in the past 26 years, ranking first in the region, and the surrounding areas have increased by less than 6.0%.</b>In the three years from January 1995 to 2021, house prices in Greater London increased by 6.7 times, while the increases in the surrounding areas of Kent, Hertfordshire, Essex, Windsor and Maidenhead and Surrey were 5.5, 5.7, 5.5, 5.2 and 5.4 times respectively. The increase in house prices in Greater London was significantly higher than that in the surrounding areas. In addition, house prices in Birmingham, the second largest city in the UK, rose only 4.6 times during this period, which was significantly lower than the increase in London and surrounding areas.</p><p><b>From the inside of Greater London, in the past 26 years, house prices in the core areas of London have increased by more than 7 times, while those in outer London have increased by less than 6.5 times.</b>From January 1995 to March 2021, house prices in Inner London rose from 78,300 pounds/unit to 594,500 pounds/unit, an increase of 7.6 times; House prices in outer London rose from 73,000 pounds/unit to 451,000 pounds/unit, an increase of 6.2 times. At present, the most expensive house prices in London are Kensington and Chelsea (1,227,200 pounds/unit), followed by City of Westminster (936,800 pounds/unit), which are 6.7 times and 7.0 times higher than in January 1995 respectively.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d53232626f2d5e64d75a676f520e515f\" tg-width=\"968\" tg-height=\"692\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e1e929dc297e8b1905401a6ed5999242\" tg-width=\"967\" tg-height=\"697\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><b>2.2 France: Housing prices in Paris have increased 44 times in 55 years, exceeding that in surrounding areas</b></p><p>Paris has three areas: Paris (or Little Paris), Greater Paris (including three suburban provinces) and Paris Region (including four outer suburban provinces, also known as \"Île de France\"), with land areas of 105, 761 and 12001 square kilometers respectively, of which the land area of Paris Region accounts for 1.8% of France. With industrial agglomeration, the French population has continued to gather in Paris and surrounding areas for a long time. From 1876 to 2014, the population of the Paris region basically continued to increase from 3.32 million to 12.03 million, the population share increased from 8.6% to 18.8%, and the economic share increased from 28.4% in 1990 to 30.4% in 2014. During this period, for the purpose of controlling the population and treating diseases in big cities, the city of Paris experienced a long period of decline. From 1931 to 1999, it continued to decline from 2.89 million to 2.13 million, and then rose to 2.18 million in 2018.</p><p><b>In the past 55 years, house prices in Paris have increased by 43.7 times in 55 years, significantly exceeding the average increase of house prices in France (26.6 times) and the increase of nominal GDP in France (29.5 times), with average annual growth rates of 7.2%, 6.2% and 6.4% respectively.</b>Prior to this, from 1945 to 1965, affected by post-war reconstruction, baby boom and large currency excess, house prices in Paris and France soared 54.1 and 38.3 times respectively, with an average annual growth rate of 22.2% and 20.1%, but they still lagged behind nominal GDP. Average annual growth rate (51.2% in 1950-1965).</p><p><b>Look at it in stages,</b>After 1966, the trend of house prices in Paris can be divided into four stages: 1) From 1966 to 1990, the period of rapid rise in house prices. During this period, housing prices in Paris, housing prices in France, and nominal GDP in France increased by 10.7%, 9.3%, and 10.6% annually. 2) From 1992 to 1997, the period of house price decline. Due to the strong real estate speculation in Paris around 1985-1990 and the excessive increase in house prices (among which the increase in four consecutive years from 1987 to 1990 exceeded 17%), house prices in Paris began to fall sharply. During this period, housing prices in Paris, French housing prices, and French nominal GDP grew at an average annual rate of-6.1%,-0.4%, and 3.8%. By the end of 1997, housing prices in Paris had plummeted to 69% in 1991. 3) 1998-2015, a period of fluctuating growth. During this period, housing prices in Paris, housing prices in France, and nominal GDP in France increased by 7.2%, 5.0%, and 3.0% annually. Among them, house prices in Paris fell continuously from 2013 to 2015. However, after 2015, house prices in Paris ushered in a wave of large increases.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c239d397cf1aeafa440025897669e859\" tg-width=\"968\" tg-height=\"695\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><b>The increase in housing prices in Paris ranks first in the Paris region. From Q4 of 1997 to Q1 of 2021, the increase in housing prices in Paris exceeded 3.5 times, which is significantly higher than that in the three suburban provinces and the four outer suburban provinces.</b>As the land area of Paris is small (105 square kilometers), which is slightly larger than the sum of the areas of Dongcheng and Xicheng districts in Beijing (93 square kilometers), we no longer analyze the internal housing prices in Paris, but regard Paris as the core area of Paris Region, and analyze the trend differences between it and other areas of Paris Region. According to data from the French Statistics Office (INSEE), from Q4 of 1997 to Q1 of 2021, house prices in Paris increased by 3.7 times, significantly exceeding the 2.5 times of the three suburban provinces and the 1.6 times of the four outer suburban provinces. During this period, France's nominal GDP increased by 0.8 times. House prices in the three suburban provinces of Hauts de Seine, Seine St Denis and Val de Marne increased by 2.6 times, 2.5 times and 2.4 times respectively. House prices in the four outer suburbs of Yvelines, Val d 'Oise, Seine and Marne and Essonne increased by 1.8 times, 1.7 times, 1.5 times and 1.5 times respectively.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef31ec3f0316c99a2e4b77fd99eac928\" tg-width=\"971\" tg-height=\"678\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><b>2.3 United States: Housing prices in New York City have risen 9 times in 46 years, and Queens has performed better</b></p><p>New York has multiple meanings: new york city, new york metropolitan area, new york joint statistical area, etc. Among them, New York City has a land area of 789 square kilometers and a population of 8.55 million in 2015; The New York-Newark-Jersey City Metropolitan Statistical Area (NY-NJ-PAMSA) covers an area of about 17,000 square kilometers, with a population of 20.18 million in 2015; The New York-Newark Combined Statistical Area consists of the New York metropolitan area and adjacent metropolitan areas, with a population of 23.72 million in 2015. From the perspective of population, due to the shift of the economic center of gravity of the United States to the west coast and south coast, although the population of new york basically continued to grow from 1950 to 2015, the growth rate of 84% was much less than that of Los Angeles, which made the population proportion of new york drop significantly. During this period, due to suburbanization of the population and the decline of manufacturing, the population of new york decreased from 7.89 million to 7.02 million from 1950 to 1980; Later, due to urban renewal and industrial transformation and upgrading, it rose to 8.55 million in 2015, and the population dropped slightly to 8.42 million in 2019.</p><p><b>In the past 46 years, house prices in new york have increased by more than 9 times, higher than the average level in the United States, but lower than the increase in house prices around new york and Los Angeles.</b>According to statistics from the U.S. Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA), from 1975 to 2021 Q1, the United States, New York City, New York-Jersey-White Plains Subdivision (one of the New York metropolitan area subdivisions) (1976-2021 Q1), Los Angeles-Long Beach-House prices in the Glendale subdivision (one of the Los Angeles metropolitan area subdivisions) increased by 8.1 times, 9.9 times, 12.9 times, and 19.7 times respectively, with average annual growth rates of 4.9%, 5.3%, 6.0%, and 6.8% respectively. Although the price increase of new york-Jersey-White Plains subdivision is not as good as that of Los Angeles-Long Beach-Glendale subdivision, it is still significantly higher than the U.S. average. In addition, during this period, the nominal GDP of the United States increased by 13.7 times, with an average annual growth rate of 6.0%, and M2 increased by 20.5 times, with an average annual growth rate of 6.9%. This means that housing prices in New York City underperformed the nominal GDP and M2 of the United States during the same period, while the Los Angeles-Long Beach-Glendale subdivision outperformed the nominal GDP of the United States, close to M2.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3365bc98f3d57e2abfa2e44b8cd57d69\" tg-width=\"970\" tg-height=\"685\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/22a2c22f165e582eba667aa4ba1eed6f\" tg-width=\"966\" tg-height=\"687\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><b>Within the new york metropolitan area, house prices in the new york subdivision have increased more than four times in the past 35 years, ranking second among the four major subdivisions in the new york metropolitan area.</b>In addition to the New York-Jersey City-White Plains subdivision, the New York metropolitan area also includes three subdivisions: NassauCounty-Suffolk County, Dutchess County-Putnam County, and Newark. The trends of housing prices in the four major sub-districts are basically the same. Among them, from 1986 to Q1 2021, the Nassau County-Suffolk County sub-district increased by 4.3 times, with an average annual increase of 4.9%, ranking first; New York-Jersey City-White Plains Subdivision rose 4.1 times, with an average annual increase of 4.6%, ranking second; Newark subdivision and DutchessCounty-Putnam County subdivision (1986-2018 Q1) rose by 3.4 times and 2.6 times respectively, with average annual increases of 4.3% and 4.6% respectively.</p><p><b>Within new york, house prices in Manhattan have nearly doubled in the past 30 years, which is higher than the level of new york.</b>From 1991 to Q1 2021, house prices in Manhattan, New York City increased by 1.9 times, with an average annual increase of 3.7%, and house prices in Queens (1991-2020) increased by 2.8 times, with an average annual increase of 4.7%. During this period, house prices in New York City and New York subdivisions increased by 1.8 times and 2.0 times respectively, with average annual growth rates of 3.5% and 3.8% respectively.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d564c533cc7c696dd75bfb7fc8caa8b\" tg-width=\"970\" tg-height=\"699\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><b>2.4 Japan: Six core cities have increased 210 times in 36 years</b></p><p>Tokyo has three areas: Tokyo Metropolitan Area, Tokyo Metropolitan Area, including Chiba Prefecture, Saitama Prefecture and Tokyo Circle of Kanagawa Prefecture, with land areas of 627, 2188 and 13,558 square kilometers respectively. The land area of Tokyo Circle accounts for 3.6% of Japan's, with a population of 36.94 million in 2020, accounting for 29.3% of Japan's, and the current regional GDP accounts for about 1/3 of Japan's.</p><p>Japanese population mobility is divided into two stages: before 1974, the national population basically continued to gather in Tokyo Circle, Osaka Circle and Nagoya Circle. From 1884 to 1973, in addition to the impact of the war, the population of Tokyo increased from 4.06 million to 26.07 million, accounting for 23.9% from 10.8%; The population of Osaka Circle increased from 3.92 million to 16.36 million, accounting for 10.5% to 15.0%; The population of Nagoya Circle increased from 3.11 million to 9.18 million, accounting for 8.3% to 8.4%. After that, it turned to one pole concentration in Tokyo circle, while the inflow and outflow of population in Nagoya circle were basically balanced, and the long-term net outflow in Osaka circle; By 2016, the population of Tokyo Circle, Osaka Circle and Nagoya Circle was 36.29 million, 18.31 million and 11.34 million respectively, accounting for 28.6%, 14.4% and 8.9% respectively. During this period, the population growth of Osaka Circle and Nagoya Circle was mainly due to natural growth. The population growth of Tokyo stagnated from 1970 to 1997, mainly due to the industrial transfer and population emigration in Tokyo metropolitan area, but the population of Tokyo's non-metropolitan area and Tokyo circle increased significantly.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d574585fc9099cc15439a0835d5fb4e1\" tg-width=\"968\" tg-height=\"688\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><b>Land prices in Japan rose 82 times 36 years before the bubble burst, and the increase in six core cities was as high as 210 times.</b>Before the bursting of the real estate bubble in 1991, Japan's land prices continued to rise except for the adjustment in 1975, rising 82 times from 1955 to 1991, exceeding the nominal GDP increase of 55 times during this period; Among them, the land price of six core cities increased by 210 times, and that of non-core cities increased by 78 times. Looking at stages, from 1955 to 1974, land prices in six core cities including Tokyo, Yokohama, Nagoya, Kyoto, Osaka and Kobe increased by 40.6 times, with an average annual rate of 21.7%, while other cities increased by 29.6 times, with an average annual rate of 19.7%. During the same period, the nominal GDP increased by 15 times, with an average annual rate of 15.7%. From 1975 to 1991, land prices in six core cities increased by 4.5 times, with an average annual average of 11.2%, and land prices in other cities increased by 1.7 times, with an average annual average of 6.4%. During the same period, nominal GDP increased by 2.2 times, with an average annual average of 7.5%.</p><p>Japan's housing prices continued to rise after the adjustment in 1975, mainly due to economic growth and the support of the main home buyers. However, due to the rapid rise in the later period, the sharp decline in the birth population, the peak of the main home buyers in the 1990s, and the wrong response of the Japanese government, the real estate bubble burst in the early 1990s. After that, the land price in Japan continued to adjust until 2005. In 2017, the land price in Japan was only 47.1% of the peak. Land prices in six core cities fell from 1992 to 2005. After experiencing a short-term increase from 2006 to 2008, they fell again from 2009 to 2012 due to the global financial crisis. They began to rise in 2013 and have only been equivalent to 35.3% of the peak in 1991; Due to population outflow, land prices in non-core cities in Japan have been falling since 1992. In 2017, land prices were equivalent to 47.5% of the peak in 1991.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b856c3f9e7ac62406c37642cf3647a60\" tg-width=\"967\" tg-height=\"689\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><b>The trend of land price in Tokyo is basically consistent with that of Japan as a whole, but the peak was in 1990, one year earlier than that of Japan as a whole. From 1976 to 1990, it rose 3.4 times, with an average annual average of 11.1%; After that, it continued to fall until 2005, and in 2014 it stopped falling and rebounded ahead of the whole country.</b>Housing prices in Tokyo and Osaka peaked in 1990, while land prices in Nagoya and local areas peaked in 1991 and 1992 respectively. From 1976 to the peak of housing prices, land prices in Tokyo, Osaka, Nagoya, and local areas increased by 3.4, 3.9, 2.0, and 0.9 times respectively, with an average annual growth rate of 11.1%, 12.0%, 7.7%, and 4.0% respectively; Especially before the burst of the housing price bubble, the land price in Tokyo soared by 0.95 times from 1987 to 1988, and the land price in Osaka soared by 1.6 times from 1988 to 1990. From 1976 to 1991, Japan's nominal GDP increased by 1.8 times, with an average annual growth rate of 7.2%, and M2 increased by 2.7 times, with an average annual growth rate of 9.0%.</p><p>After the real estate bubble burst in the early 1990s, the land price in Tokyo dropped sharply until 2005, and began to rise from 2006 to 2008. However, due to the impact of the global financial crisis, it began to adjust again in 2009 and began to rise again in 2014. By 2020, the Tokyo area, Osaka area, Nagoya area, and local land prices will only be 40.7%, 27.8%, 59.0%, and 56.7% of the peak respectively. The reason why the adjustment of land price in Osaka is the most tragic is that it rose the most before the bubble burst and lacked population support.</p><p><b>The land price in the Tokyo Metropolitan Area peaked in 1988, and tripled in the five years before the peak. At the same time, the adjustment was early and the decline stopped quickly. From 2005 to 2020, the cumulative increase exceeded 25%, the highest in the Tokyo area.</b>Land prices in Tokyo and Tokyo metropolitan area peaked in 1988, two years earlier than Tokyo circle and three years earlier than Japan as a whole. In the first five years of the peak, house prices in Tokyo metropolitan area tripled, which was 1.8 times higher than that in Tokyo and 1.2 times higher than that in Tokyo. After peaking, house prices in Tokyo and the Tokyo metropolitan area continued to fall until 2005, then fell from 2009 to 2013, and began to rise in 2014. From 2005 to 2020, housing prices in Tokyo and Tokyo metropolitan areas increased by 13.3% and 27.5% respectively, housing prices in non-districts of Tokyo were basically the same, and housing prices in Tokyo fell by 1.7%. In 2016, housing prices in Tokyo, districts and non-metropolitan areas were equivalent to 42.7%, 46.7% and 38.8% of their peaks respectively, which was very close to 40.7% in Tokyo circle.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/befe38251db05984d0243ae602871331\" tg-width=\"967\" tg-height=\"685\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1a8bad47d30fee108ac396d9cb7ee063\" tg-width=\"966\" tg-height=\"695\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>3 Conclusion: In the past 51 years, real estate in metropolitan areas has outperformed the money printing press and promoted new housing reform</p><p><b>1) From a global perspective, a country's real estate market depends on: economic growth, demographic changes, money supply, and housing system. Among them, the first two items are fundamental factors; Excessive currency issuance will lead to a sharp rise in domestic local currency house prices, but not necessarily in US dollar house prices, that is, it may not necessarily have investment value from a global perspective; Housing system is the policy orientation of a country's real estate market.</b></p><p><b>2) Real estate has anti-inflation properties and can partially share the dividends of economic growth. Moreover, real estate in metropolitan areas of most countries is one of the few assets that can outperform money printing presses.</b>From 1970 to Q1 2021, the growth rate of local currency housing prices in 23 economies all exceeded their respective CPI increases to varying degrees. The average annual growth rate of actual housing prices in the United Kingdom, New Zealand, Hong Kong, and Malaysia after deducting CPI can still reach more than 3%, while Japan and Germany after deducting CPI The actual housing price growth is close to 0. Compared with local currency nominal GDP growth, in Q1 1970-2021, only a few of the 23 economies, such as New Zealand, outperformed in housing prices, which means that housing prices in most economies can only partially share the economic growth dividend.</p><p><b>In the long run, global currency excessive issuance is a common phenomenon. The growth rate of broad money is mostly higher than the nominal GDP growth. There are not many assets that can outperform the printing press. Real estate in metropolitan areas of most countries is one of them.</b>From an international perspective, the average annual growth rate of house prices in the UK from 1987 to 2020 was 5.6%. Although it was higher than the average annual growth rate of nominal GDP of 4.5%, it was still lower than the average annual growth rate of broad money of 7.1%; From 1960 to 2020, the average annual growth rate of housing prices in the United States was 4.5%, while the average annual growth rate of nominal GDP and M2 was 6.3% and 7.1% respectively. From the perspective of metropolitan areas, in the United States, from 1975 to 2020, house prices in the New York-Jersey-White Plains subdivision grew at an average annual rate of 5.8%, which was lower than the 6.8% of M2 in the same period and the same as the 5.8% of GDP. In China, the average annual growth rate of broad money supply M2 has been 15% in the past 40 years. Since 1998, the average annual compound growth rate of the average sales price of new housing in China has reached 7.72%, which is nearly 8 percentage points lower than the growth rate of M2 in the same period, while the housing prices in first-tier cities are basically the same as the growth rate of M2.</p><p><b>3) From the perspective of global asset allocation, some emerging economies with great economic growth potential, especially real estate in their core cities, have great investment potential.</b>Generally speaking, the over-issuance of currency in emerging economies is serious, and the increase of house price is also large. However, from the perspective of global asset allocation, investors are concerned about the increase of US dollar house price, that is, the exchange rate change caused by the relative over-issuance of currency is excluded, while the increase of US dollar house price is mainly related to the nominal GDP growth of US dollar, which can decompose factors such as economic growth, demographic change and housing system. Some emerging economies with great economic growth potential may have a \"golden age\" similar to that of China's real estate market in the future, but we need to pay attention to political, legal and other related risks.</p><p><b>4) Build a residential-oriented new housing system in China.</b>The 20-year development of China's real estate shows that short-term regulation can't solve the fundamental contradiction of long-term imbalance between supply and demand, and deepening the reform of housing system is the foundation to realize the stable and healthy development of the real estate market.</p><p><b>First, reform the \"linkage between people and land\" and optimize land supply.</b>At present, the \"man-land linkage\" is to link the number of agricultural migrants settled in with the supply of construction land, which can't solve the contradiction between the inflow of population in hot cities and the tight housing supply. In the future, the newly-added permanent population should be linked to land supply, and the inter-provincial cultivated land occupation and compensation balance should be linked to the increase or decrease of urban and rural land, such as the land sales indicators in northeast and western regions, which can effectively solve the problem of a large amount of waste of land indicators in northeast and western China. Strictly implement the principle of \"linking the inventory de-stocking cycle with land supply\" and optimize the current land supply mode.</p><p><b>The second is to maintain the long-term stability of monetary policy and real estate financial policy.</b>Implement a long-term and stable housing credit financial policy, stabilize the expectations of property buyers, support the demand for rigid and improved housing purchases, and curb speculative demand. Support the reasonable financing needs of real estate enterprises, standardize the use of financing, and prevent excessive financing.</p><p><b>The third is to change the housing supply structure and enrich the main body of supply.</b>At present, China's housing supply system emphasizes sales over leasing, and a multi-subject supply housing system has not yet been established. In the future, the main supply body will change from developers to the government, developers, leasing intermediary companies, long-term rental companies and other multi-party suppliers; The form of supply will also shift from commercial housing to commercial housing, rental housing, shared property housing and other categories. However, the exploration of housing supply structure and the introduction of policies must be adapted to local conditions, and cities with net population outflow should be especially wary of blindly following the trend.</p><p><b>The fourth is to steadily promote the pilot project of property tax.</b>With the end of the era of large-scale development, the land transfer fee has decreased and the tax revenue in the transaction link has decreased in the era of stock housing. It is the general trend to introduce property tax. From international experience, property tax is usually regarded as an important and stable source of local fiscal revenue by mature market economies. The general principle of property tax reform is \"legislation first, full authorization and step-by-step advancement\". \"Legislation first\" means legislation first and then levy; \"Full authorization\" means authorizing all localities to pilot projects according to local conditions, not across the board; the property tax itself is the local main tax according to international experience; \"Distributed promotion\" is active and steady promotion, and we should strive for a mature scheme and do a good job in guiding social expectations.</p>","source":"gelonghui_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Ren Zeping: 2021 Global Housing Price Trends</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nRen Zeping: 2021 Global Housing Price Trends\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">格隆汇</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-14 15:34</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Author: Ren Zeping Team</p><p><b>introduction</b></p><p>We put forward an analysis framework widely circulated in the industry: real estate looks at population in the long term, land in the medium term and finance in the short term. This article looks at the global housing price trend and examines the factors and laws that drive the housing price trend in different economies and major metropolitan areas.</p><p><b>The long-term differences in local currency housing prices in different economies can be explained in four aspects: the income effect brought by economic growth, the population effect caused by changes in total population and structure, the monetary illusion brought by money supply, and the supply and demand pattern influenced by housing system.</b></p><p><b>In the past 51 years, housing prices in 23 economies have increased by an average of 29.6 times, with an average annual growth rate of over 6%. According to the increase in house prices, it can be divided into three categories:</b>First, the cumulative increase of house prices in four economies, including South Africa and New Zealand, is more than 60 times, with an average annual growth rate of 8.5%-10%; Second, there are 14 economies such as Ireland and Australia where the cumulative increase in house prices is between 5-50 times and the average annual growth rate is between 5.5% and 8%; Third, there are five economies, including Thailand and Switzerland, where the cumulative increase in house prices is less than 5 times and the average annual growth rate is less than 4%.</p><p><b>During the epidemic, housing prices rose significantly, which was due to the implementation of quantitative easing policies in various countries and the release of improvement demand accumulated by the epidemic.</b>In the past year, house prices in major economies have increased by more than 7% on average, Turkey by 32% and New Zealand by 22%, while the growth rate in major Asian countries is lower than the global average, with Singapore having the largest increase of 6.1%; China's house prices rose by 4.3%.</p><p><b>The metropolitan area with the inflow of population within a country has the largest increase in housing prices.</b>House prices in London have risen 113 times in 53 years, and the increase in Inner London is even greater; Land prices in Japan rose 82 times 36 years before the bubble burst, and the increase in six core cities was as high as 210 times.</p><p><b>We call for the urgency of promoting a new round of housing reform (new housing reform), speeding up the construction of a long-term mechanism for real estate with the linkage between people and land, controlling currency and property tax as the core, and promoting the long-term stable and healthy development of the real estate market. There is still the last ten-year window.</b></p><p><b>text</b></p><p>1 Differences in housing price increases among different economies: economic growth, demographic changes, money supply, housing system</p><p><b>1.1 There are obvious differences in housing price trends in 23 economies in the past 51 years</b></p><p><b>From Q1 of 1970 to Q1 of 2021, housing prices in 23 economies rose by an average of 29.6 times, with an average annual growth rate of over 6%. According to the increase in house prices, it can be divided into three categories:</b></p><p><b>First, the cumulative increase of house prices in four economies, including South Africa, New Zealand, Spain and the United Kingdom, is more than 60 times, with an average annual growth rate of 8.5%-10%.</b>The cumulative increase of house prices in South Africa and New Zealand is as high as 110.5 times and 86.9 times respectively, with an average annual growth rate of 9.7% and 9.2% respectively, ranking first and second among 23 economies respectively; House prices in the UK have increased by 62.3 times cumulatively, with an average annual growth rate of 8.6%, ranking third among 23 economies; In Spain, house prices increased by 60.2 times from Q1 of 1979 to Q1 of 2021, with an average annual growth rate of 8.6%.</p><p><b>Second, there are 14 economies in Ireland, Australia, Hong Kong, Norway, Italy, Canada, Sweden, France, Denmark, the Netherlands, Finland, Malaysia, the United States and Belgium, where the cumulative increase of house prices is between 5-50 times and the average annual growth rate is between 5.5% and 8%.</b>House prices in Ireland and Australia have increased by 48.1 times and 47.3 times, with an average annual growth rate of 7.9%; Housing prices in Hong Kong, China increased by 19.9 times from Q1 of 1979 to Q1 of 2021, with an average annual growth rate of 7.7%; Malaysia's housing prices rose 5.1 times from Q1 of 1988 to Q1 of 2021, with an average annual growth rate of 5.6%; The growth rate of the other 10 countries is between 15-40 times, with an average annual growth rate of 5.5%-7.5%.</p><p><b>Third, there are five economies: Thailand, Switzerland, South Korea, Germany and Japan, where the cumulative increase in house prices is less than 5 times and the average annual growth rate is less than 4%.</b>Among them, Thailand rose 1.8 times from 1991Q1 to 2021Q1, with an average annual growth rate of 3.5%; South Korea's housing prices rose 3.2 times from Q1 of 1975 to Q1 of 2021, with an average annual growth rate of 3.2%; From Q1 of 1970 to Q1 of 2021, housing prices in Switzerland, Germany, and Japan increased by 4.8 times, 3.6 times, and 2.7 times cumulatively, with an average annual growth rate of 3.5%, 3.0%, and 2.6%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eeac7b4ce1943e6a27a61f1ad0644753\" tg-width=\"967\" tg-height=\"681\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b27a668cefa0b6a8cb027f216644c95b\" tg-width=\"966\" tg-height=\"695\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><b>With the deepening of economic and financial globalization, the linkage of global housing price trends has gradually increased.</b>For example, house prices in the four Nordic countries fell in the middle and late 1980s, in Japan and South Korea in the early 1990s, in Southeast Asia in 1997, and in global real estate in 2007.<b>Judging from the trend of housing prices, 23 economies in the past 51 years can be roughly divided into four categories:</b></p><p><b>First, there are four economies in which house prices basically continue to rise and the adjustment range is small during the period, including Australia, New Zealand, Canada and France.</b>Since 1970, the cumulative decline in any downward cycle of the above four countries has not exceeded 9%. Among them, Australia, New Zealand, Canada and other three countries have not experienced two consecutive years of decline; France made three significant adjustments in 1992-1995, 2008-2009, and 2011-2015, but the cumulative decline in the three times never exceeded 7%.</p><p><b>Second, there are 14 economies in which house prices have fallen sharply but have risen higher than the previous high in the later period, including Britain, the United States, Switzerland, the Netherlands, South Africa, Norway, Hong Kong, Malaysia and Thailand.</b>For example, house prices in the Netherlands plummeted by nearly 30% in 1979-1982 and more than 19% in 2008-2013, in South Africa by 11% in 1984-1986, in Finland by 37% in 1990-1992, in Switzerland by 22% in 1990-1998, in Malaysia and Thailand by more than 11% in 1997-1998 and 1998-1999 respectively, in Hong Kong, China by more than 60% in 1998-2003, in the United States by more than 30% in 2007-2011, and in the United Kingdom by nearly 11% in 1990-1992 and 13% in 2008-2009. House prices in the above economies have continued to rise after a sharp decline, and now they have exceeded their previous highs.</p><p><b>Third, there are four economies where the housing price bubble burst in the early stage and is still below the high point, including Japan, Spain, Ireland and Italy.</b>Although times and countries are different, the accumulation of previous real estate bubbles has been stimulated by excess liquidity and low interest rates without exception, while the collapse of previous real estate bubbles has been related to monetary tightening and rate hike. Housing prices in Japan, Spain, Ireland, and Italy peaked in 1990, 2007, 2007, and 2008 respectively. Housing prices in the first three countries have rebounded slightly in recent years. In 2020, housing prices in the above four countries are only equivalent to 63.4% and 84.7% of the peak respectively., 84.8%, 83.2%.</p><p><b>Fourth, there is only one economy in Germany where the trend of housing prices is basically stable and the increase is generally small.</b>Since 1970, German housing prices have experienced three relatively large rising cycles: a cumulative increase of nearly 1.8 times from 1971 to 1981, a cumulative increase of 35.1% from 1987 to 1994, and a cumulative increase of 67.6% in Q1 from 2009 to 2021; In any downward cycle, the cumulative decline has never exceeded 10%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c9b91523fdf9fd2bb5f4d451baedf75\" tg-width=\"981\" tg-height=\"686\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3be2e050170ea5199c62f80800d0fb6f\" tg-width=\"967\" tg-height=\"698\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d4915716ab9826f9a5e64f8c294cdcd6\" tg-width=\"968\" tg-height=\"694\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/411177ccdf3f9b3d00fb572c5672563e\" tg-width=\"967\" tg-height=\"689\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><b>1.2 The long-term trend of local currency housing prices is related to economic growth, population changes, money supply and housing system</b></p><p><b>The long-term trend differences of local currency housing prices in different economies can be explained in four aspects: the income effect brought by economic growth, the population effect caused by changes in total population and structure, the monetary illusion brought by money supply, and the supply and demand pattern influenced by housing system.</b>Real estate has both consumer goods attributes (housing demand, including rigid demand and improvement demand) and financial attributes (investment speculative demand, which can be leveraged), so house prices not only depend on supply and demand (population and residents' income, land supply), but also closely related to money supply. From the operation experience of the global real estate market, in the absence of disputes, plagues, natural disasters, economic and financial crises and other impacts, a country's housing prices have risen for a long time with economic development.</p><p><b>From 1970 to Q1 of 2021, the average annual growth rate of local currency housing prices and the local currency nominal GDP growth rate of 23 economies were 6.3% and 7.5% respectively. The two were relatively close, and the correlation coefficient was 0.52;</b>Excluding Thailand and Malaysia, the correlation coefficient of 21 economies is 0.54; Excluding Thailand, Malaysia, South Korea, and Hong Kong, China, the correlation coefficient of 19 economies reaches 0.87. Nominal GDP can be decomposed into per capita constant price GDP, population, GDP deflator, and the housing system that affects the supply and demand pattern. The four factors can better explain the long-term trend differences of housing prices in different economies.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a7af05caae4ef416d72059040f7bd4d3\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"653\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><b>1) The income effect brought by economic growth. The growth of constant price GDP reflects the real economic growth after excluding prices. The growth of per capita constant price GDP in local currency means that the actual purchasing power of residents increases and the demand for real estate increases.</b>In Q1 from 1970 to 2021, the average annual growth rate of local currency at constant prices in 23 economies was 2.7% and the median was 2.2%. The average annual growth rate of local currency at constant prices per capita was 1.9% and the median was 1.6% (The calculation of data for some economies starts when housing price data is available, and Spain, Hong Kong, South Korea, Malaysia, and Thailand starts in 1971, 1979, 1975, 1988, and 1991 respectively). Among them, South Korea's per capita GDP at constant local currency has an average annual growth rate of 5.3%, Ireland, Hong Kong, Malaysia and Thailand have an average annual growth rate of more than 2.5%, other economies are mostly below 2%, and South Africa has only 0.2%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/de3b1d4d783da6689b6041becd9503e2\" tg-width=\"806\" tg-height=\"577\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><b>2) Population effects caused by changes in total population and structure.</b>The impact of population on housing prices at the economic level is mainly reflected in the following three aspects:</p><p><b>First, changes in the total population affect housing prices.</b>Changes in total population include natural growth and transnational population mobility. Generally speaking, changes in population size are directly proportional to housing demand. According to World Bank data, the global fertility rate in 2019 was 2.4, of which the total fertility rates of high-income, middle-high-income, low-middle-income, and low-income economies were 1.6, 1.8, 2.7, and 4.6 respectively. The fertility rates of high-income and middle-high-income economies are no longer enough to make up for the generational replacement of the population. But high-income economies have attracted large cross-border inflows of people. From 1960 to 2020, the cumulative net inflow of population from high-income economies was 140 million, and the proportions from middle-high, middle-low, and low-income economies were 26.4%, 50.0%, and 27.1% respectively. The living standard of the population in middle-and high-income economies is close to that in high-income economies, and the migration motivation is not strong; Low-income economies have strong migration motivation, but it is difficult to bear the migration cost; Low-and middle-income economies have strong migration motivation and can bear the migration cost. According to United Nations statistics, Germany's population once decreased by about 2.3 million from 2004 to 2011, and then due to immigration's return to growth. Japan's population began to grow negatively in 2009, and Italy's population began to grow negatively in 2016.</p><p><b>Second, demographic changes affect housing prices.</b>Demographic changes such as the main home buyers aged 20-50 and the size of households will lead to changes in housing demand. In terms of household size, due to the delayed marriage age, the increase of unmarried rate and divorce rate, the low fertility rate, the prolonged life expectancy, the aging population, population mobility, etc., the global household size is becoming miniaturized, which increases a certain housing demand. From 1960 to 2015, the size of households in the United States dropped from 3.33 to 2.54, and that in Japan dropped from 4.14 to 2.39; Furthermore, South Korea decreased from 4.78 to 2.73 in 1980-2015. In terms of the main home buyers, the population aged 20-49 in the United States continues to grow, and Japan, South Korea, and the United Kingdom peaked in 1996, 2004, and 2011 respectively. Changes in the size of the main home buyers have a very significant impact on the real estate market.</p><p><b>Third, the population affects housing prices through economic growth.</b>The demographic dividend is an important source of the high-speed economic growth of many catch-up economies in the past. After the demographic dividend disappears, the economy often turns to medium or low-speed growth.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/32d6b01bca24010940600884b4f55b7e\" tg-width=\"968\" tg-height=\"691\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/373bd33ed383da37d0380f150e39c70b\" tg-width=\"968\" tg-height=\"687\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><b>3) Monetary illusion brought about by money supply.</b>From the international experience, in the process of economic development, most countries have varying degrees of over-issuance of currency, which leads to changes in asset prices. Generally speaking, a high growth rate of broad money supply leads to a high inflation. From 1970 to 2021Q1, the average annual GDP deflator of the 23 economies was 4.3% and the median was 4.0%, which was not only close to the average annual growth rate of housing prices of 6.3% in the 23 economies in absolute terms, but also The fluctuations are relatively consistent. For example, in Q1 from 1970 to 2021, South Africa's broad money increased by 532.5 times. Under the substantial excess of money, South Africa's nominal GDP increased by 390.2 times, its real GDP only increased by 1.9 times, the GDP deflator increased by 130.2 times, and house prices increased by 101.6 times; U.S. broad money increased by 33.2 times, nominal GDP increased by 19.0 times, real GDP increased by 2.8 times, GDP deflator increased by 5.2 times, and house prices increased by 13 times. However, over-issuance of currency can easily breed asset price bubbles such as real estate, and in extreme cases, it may even lead to economic crises, such as the real estate bubble in Japan in 1990s and the subprime mortgage crisis in the United States in 2007.</p><p><b>Due to the rapid growth of broad money in emerging economies, the increase of house prices in local currency is greater than that in developed economies.</b>According to World Bank data, the average annual growth rate of broad money in nine representative emerging economies such as India and Mexico from 2001 to 2020 was 13.7%, which was significantly higher than the 5.3% in six representative developed economies such as Britain, the United States and Japan. According to BIS statistics, the average annual growth rate of housing prices in emerging economies was 6.8% from 2010 to 2020, exceeding the average annual growth rate of housing prices in developed economies of 3.8%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d7906272da5dc3fe1c22ea5aa0f4e99e\" tg-width=\"967\" tg-height=\"683\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><b>4) The supply and demand pattern affected by the housing system.</b>Housing system is the orientation of a country's real estate market. A good housing system can stabilize housing prices for a long time and support the development of the real economy. A bad housing system may cause housing prices to soar and plummet, weaken or even hollow out the real economy. The key to the long-term stability of Germany's housing prices lies in the design of its housing-oriented housing system. The three pillars are: neutral and prudent monetary policy and housing financial system, a tax system that encourages residents to hold housing for a long time and cracks down on speculation, and a rental system that protects tenants' rights and interests and encourages long-term renting. At present, Singapore has formed a dual supply system with HDB flats as the mainstay and private houses as the supplement. The supply structure presents a ladder distribution of \"low-rent housing-low-price housing-improved HDB flats-private houses\", and the housing ownership rate exceeds 90%, basically realizing home ownership.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/32a2ee39af0d3a9fd9990c2373fa67d0\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"646\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><b>The price increase of US $1.3 is significantly different from that of local currency</b></p><p><b>In terms of U.S. dollars, from 1970 to Q1 2021, the increase in housing prices in 23 economies changed significantly, and there is a certain correlation between the increase in U.S. dollar housing prices and the growth of U.S. dollar nominal GDP. If an economy's currency excess is more serious than that of the United States, the currency will depreciate against the US dollar. Therefore, a sharp rise in local currency house prices does not mean a sharp rise in US dollar house prices, and it does not necessarily have investment value globally.</b>According to the increase of US dollar house prices, it can be roughly divided into four categories: First, the cumulative increase exceeds 50 times and the average annual growth exceeds 8%, only one in New Zealand. Second, the cumulative increase is 25-35 times and the average annual growth rate is 7%-7.5%. There are three economies: the United Kingdom, the Netherlands and Spain. Third, the cumulative increase is 10-20 times and the average annual growth rate is 5%-6.9%. There are 14 economies including Ireland, Australia, Norway, Belgium, Italy and Japan. Fourth, the cumulative growth rate is less than 9 times and the average annual growth rate is less than 5%. There are five economies: Germany, Malaysia, South Africa, Thailand and South Korea. Compared with the increase in local currency house prices, the biggest change is in South Africa. From 1970 to 2021Q1, the increase in local currency house prices was as high as 110.5 times, but the increase in US dollar house prices was only 3.8 times. In addition, the price of local currency in Switzerland increased by only 4.8 times, but the price of US dollar reached 25.9 times; Italian currency house prices rose 34.7 times, but US dollar house prices shrank to 12.1 times; German local currency house prices rose 3.6 times, and US dollar house prices rose 8.8 times.</p><p><b>From the correlation coefficient,</b>The correlation coefficient between US dollar house price growth and US dollar nominal GDP growth in 23 economies is only 0.20, which is weak. However, if South Korea, where US dollar nominal GDP has increased by 75.3 times and US dollar house price has increased by only 0.7 times, and Ireland, where US dollar nominal GDP has increased by 99.6 times and US dollar house price has increased by only 28.7 times, the correlation coefficient of the remaining 21 economies is 0.77; This shows that from the perspective of global real estate asset allocation, the positive correlation between the growth of US dollar house prices and the growth of US dollar nominal GDP in an economy is generally established. The difference in the long-term trend of US dollar house prices in different economies can also be decomposed by corresponding factors similar to the trend of local currency house prices in the previous period. The difference is that the exchange rate mechanism eliminates the currency excessive issuance factor of an economy relative to the United States.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3cfaeece0e6f1a8b3cdfe7ae7493e4fc\" tg-width=\"968\" tg-height=\"692\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><b>1.4 Global housing prices have increased significantly under the epidemic</b></p><p><b>In the past year, house prices in major economies have risen by more than 7% on average, Turkey by 32% and New Zealand by more than 20%.</b>According to KnightFrank data, house prices in Turkey rose by 32% from Q1 2020 to Q1 2021, topping the list; New Zealand, which was followed closely, rose 22%; Luxembourg ranked third, with an increase of 16.6%; Slovakia ranked fourth, with an increase of 15.5%; The United States ranked fifth, with a 13% increase, the largest increase since 2005. However, the growth rate of major Asian countries is lower than the global average, and Singapore's house price has the largest increase of 6.1%; Japan, which was followed closely, rose 5.7%; China's house prices rose by 4.3%.</p><p><b>During the epidemic, the large increase in housing prices was due to the implementation of quantitative easing policies in various countries and the release of improvement demand accumulated by the epidemic.</b>1) From the perspective of monetary policy, in order to stimulate economic recovery under the impact of the epidemic, central banks of various countries have implemented quantitative easing policies. On the one hand, under quantitative easing's policy, there has been more liquidity in the market, and it has reached the hands of the people through corporate bailout funds and unemployment benefits. At the same time, under the loose monetary policy, mortgage interest rates have been reduced. For example, the 30-year fixed mortgage interest rate anchored by the American Mortgage Bankers Association has reached a record low of 3.08%. On the other hand, the currency devaluation brought about by quantitative easing's policies has made people eager to find value-preserving assets, and real estate with value-preserving and appreciating attributes has become the first choice for investment. 2) From the perspective of demand, the backlog of improvement demand during the epidemic will be released after the epidemic is controlled to a certain extent. Secondly, \"black swan\" events such as the epidemic have caused more and more investors to try to reduce risks by diversifying the allocation of assets, and owning a second home has become the choice of more high-net-worth individuals. 3) From the perspective of supply, loose monetary policy has triggered a general rise in asset prices, and rising raw material prices have increased construction costs. At the same time, the epidemic has led to a shortage of workers, exacerbating the tight supply of raw materials, further pushing up raw material prices, and in turn pushing up housing prices.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/834288b9b8894d0402b3c3f3f5cd3a38\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"639\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>2 Which region within a country has the largest increase in house prices: the metropolitan area with population inflow</p><p><b>2.1 UK: London house prices have risen 113 times in 53 years, and Inner London has increased even more</b></p><p>There are three areas of London: the City of London, Greater London, and the London metropolitan area. The City of London is the City of London, with a small area. Generally speaking, London refers to the Greater London area, including 319 square kilometers of inner London and 1,254 square kilometers of outer London, with a total land area of 1,573 square kilometers, accounting for 0.6% of the UK; The London metropolitan area consists of Greater London and surrounding areas. Due to urban planning problems and other prominent diseases in big cities, the British government once controlled the population of London, especially inner London, moved industries out after World War II, and built a large number of new cities. From 1941 to 1991, the population of London dropped from 8.62 million to 6.39 million, and then rose to 8.82 million in 2017, currently accounting for 13.4% of the British population. However, under the influence of economy, the population around London has been concentrated for a long time. From 1931 to 2001, the population in southeastern England increased from less than 13 million to more than 18 million, accounting for 27.5% to 31.1%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/02ca4c76a629e8fce4ea2dff163fba65\" tg-width=\"966\" tg-height=\"708\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><b>In the past 53 years, house prices in Greater London have increased by 113 times, far exceeding the average increase of house prices in Britain and England (71 and 81 times), and the nominal GDP increase in Britain (51 times).</b>According to data from the Office of National Statistics (ONS), in the United Kingdom, from 1968 to March 2021, house prices in Greater London rose from 4,400 pounds/unit to 500,000 pounds/unit, and in England rose from 3,400 pounds/unit to 275,000 pounds/unit, nationwide from 3,600 pounds/unit to 256,000 pounds/unit. House prices in London have increased by 113 times, higher than 71 times nationwide and 81 times in England. During the same period (1967-2020), the nominal GDP of the United Kingdom increased by 50.7 times, with an average annual growth rate of 7.7%, and the increase in house prices significantly outperformed the nominal GDP growth.</p><p><b>Looking at the stages, the increase of house prices in Greater London, England and Britain was very close before 1994, but the fluctuation increased significantly after 1995, especially after the global financial crisis in 2008.</b>From 1968 to 1994, house prices in Greater London, England and the United Kingdom increased by 15.0 times, 14.7 times and 14.6 times respectively, with small differences; But from then until March 2018, the increase in house prices was significantly differentiated, which were 5.3 times, 3.5 times and 3 times respectively. Affected by the 2008 financial crisis, house prices in Greater London, England and the United Kingdom fell by 16.6%, 15.0% and 14.9% year-on-year in April 2009; After that, under the background of monetary stimulus quantitative easing, house prices gradually picked up, with average annual growth rates of 7.5%, 4.5% and 4.1% by March 2018, respectively.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/65731004c8f9a4f7c0bc36cc5cfb211a\" tg-width=\"970\" tg-height=\"679\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><b>From the inside of London metropolitan area, house prices in Greater London have increased by more than 6.5 times in the past 26 years, ranking first in the region, and the surrounding areas have increased by less than 6.0%.</b>In the three years from January 1995 to 2021, house prices in Greater London increased by 6.7 times, while the increases in the surrounding areas of Kent, Hertfordshire, Essex, Windsor and Maidenhead and Surrey were 5.5, 5.7, 5.5, 5.2 and 5.4 times respectively. The increase in house prices in Greater London was significantly higher than that in the surrounding areas. In addition, house prices in Birmingham, the second largest city in the UK, rose only 4.6 times during this period, which was significantly lower than the increase in London and surrounding areas.</p><p><b>From the inside of Greater London, in the past 26 years, house prices in the core areas of London have increased by more than 7 times, while those in outer London have increased by less than 6.5 times.</b>From January 1995 to March 2021, house prices in Inner London rose from 78,300 pounds/unit to 594,500 pounds/unit, an increase of 7.6 times; House prices in outer London rose from 73,000 pounds/unit to 451,000 pounds/unit, an increase of 6.2 times. At present, the most expensive house prices in London are Kensington and Chelsea (1,227,200 pounds/unit), followed by City of Westminster (936,800 pounds/unit), which are 6.7 times and 7.0 times higher than in January 1995 respectively.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d53232626f2d5e64d75a676f520e515f\" tg-width=\"968\" tg-height=\"692\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e1e929dc297e8b1905401a6ed5999242\" tg-width=\"967\" tg-height=\"697\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><b>2.2 France: Housing prices in Paris have increased 44 times in 55 years, exceeding that in surrounding areas</b></p><p>Paris has three areas: Paris (or Little Paris), Greater Paris (including three suburban provinces) and Paris Region (including four outer suburban provinces, also known as \"Île de France\"), with land areas of 105, 761 and 12001 square kilometers respectively, of which the land area of Paris Region accounts for 1.8% of France. With industrial agglomeration, the French population has continued to gather in Paris and surrounding areas for a long time. From 1876 to 2014, the population of the Paris region basically continued to increase from 3.32 million to 12.03 million, the population share increased from 8.6% to 18.8%, and the economic share increased from 28.4% in 1990 to 30.4% in 2014. During this period, for the purpose of controlling the population and treating diseases in big cities, the city of Paris experienced a long period of decline. From 1931 to 1999, it continued to decline from 2.89 million to 2.13 million, and then rose to 2.18 million in 2018.</p><p><b>In the past 55 years, house prices in Paris have increased by 43.7 times in 55 years, significantly exceeding the average increase of house prices in France (26.6 times) and the increase of nominal GDP in France (29.5 times), with average annual growth rates of 7.2%, 6.2% and 6.4% respectively.</b>Prior to this, from 1945 to 1965, affected by post-war reconstruction, baby boom and large currency excess, house prices in Paris and France soared 54.1 and 38.3 times respectively, with an average annual growth rate of 22.2% and 20.1%, but they still lagged behind nominal GDP. Average annual growth rate (51.2% in 1950-1965).</p><p><b>Look at it in stages,</b>After 1966, the trend of house prices in Paris can be divided into four stages: 1) From 1966 to 1990, the period of rapid rise in house prices. During this period, housing prices in Paris, housing prices in France, and nominal GDP in France increased by 10.7%, 9.3%, and 10.6% annually. 2) From 1992 to 1997, the period of house price decline. Due to the strong real estate speculation in Paris around 1985-1990 and the excessive increase in house prices (among which the increase in four consecutive years from 1987 to 1990 exceeded 17%), house prices in Paris began to fall sharply. During this period, housing prices in Paris, French housing prices, and French nominal GDP grew at an average annual rate of-6.1%,-0.4%, and 3.8%. By the end of 1997, housing prices in Paris had plummeted to 69% in 1991. 3) 1998-2015, a period of fluctuating growth. During this period, housing prices in Paris, housing prices in France, and nominal GDP in France increased by 7.2%, 5.0%, and 3.0% annually. Among them, house prices in Paris fell continuously from 2013 to 2015. However, after 2015, house prices in Paris ushered in a wave of large increases.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c239d397cf1aeafa440025897669e859\" tg-width=\"968\" tg-height=\"695\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><b>The increase in housing prices in Paris ranks first in the Paris region. From Q4 of 1997 to Q1 of 2021, the increase in housing prices in Paris exceeded 3.5 times, which is significantly higher than that in the three suburban provinces and the four outer suburban provinces.</b>As the land area of Paris is small (105 square kilometers), which is slightly larger than the sum of the areas of Dongcheng and Xicheng districts in Beijing (93 square kilometers), we no longer analyze the internal housing prices in Paris, but regard Paris as the core area of Paris Region, and analyze the trend differences between it and other areas of Paris Region. According to data from the French Statistics Office (INSEE), from Q4 of 1997 to Q1 of 2021, house prices in Paris increased by 3.7 times, significantly exceeding the 2.5 times of the three suburban provinces and the 1.6 times of the four outer suburban provinces. During this period, France's nominal GDP increased by 0.8 times. House prices in the three suburban provinces of Hauts de Seine, Seine St Denis and Val de Marne increased by 2.6 times, 2.5 times and 2.4 times respectively. House prices in the four outer suburbs of Yvelines, Val d 'Oise, Seine and Marne and Essonne increased by 1.8 times, 1.7 times, 1.5 times and 1.5 times respectively.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef31ec3f0316c99a2e4b77fd99eac928\" tg-width=\"971\" tg-height=\"678\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><b>2.3 United States: Housing prices in New York City have risen 9 times in 46 years, and Queens has performed better</b></p><p>New York has multiple meanings: new york city, new york metropolitan area, new york joint statistical area, etc. Among them, New York City has a land area of 789 square kilometers and a population of 8.55 million in 2015; The New York-Newark-Jersey City Metropolitan Statistical Area (NY-NJ-PAMSA) covers an area of about 17,000 square kilometers, with a population of 20.18 million in 2015; The New York-Newark Combined Statistical Area consists of the New York metropolitan area and adjacent metropolitan areas, with a population of 23.72 million in 2015. From the perspective of population, due to the shift of the economic center of gravity of the United States to the west coast and south coast, although the population of new york basically continued to grow from 1950 to 2015, the growth rate of 84% was much less than that of Los Angeles, which made the population proportion of new york drop significantly. During this period, due to suburbanization of the population and the decline of manufacturing, the population of new york decreased from 7.89 million to 7.02 million from 1950 to 1980; Later, due to urban renewal and industrial transformation and upgrading, it rose to 8.55 million in 2015, and the population dropped slightly to 8.42 million in 2019.</p><p><b>In the past 46 years, house prices in new york have increased by more than 9 times, higher than the average level in the United States, but lower than the increase in house prices around new york and Los Angeles.</b>According to statistics from the U.S. Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA), from 1975 to 2021 Q1, the United States, New York City, New York-Jersey-White Plains Subdivision (one of the New York metropolitan area subdivisions) (1976-2021 Q1), Los Angeles-Long Beach-House prices in the Glendale subdivision (one of the Los Angeles metropolitan area subdivisions) increased by 8.1 times, 9.9 times, 12.9 times, and 19.7 times respectively, with average annual growth rates of 4.9%, 5.3%, 6.0%, and 6.8% respectively. Although the price increase of new york-Jersey-White Plains subdivision is not as good as that of Los Angeles-Long Beach-Glendale subdivision, it is still significantly higher than the U.S. average. In addition, during this period, the nominal GDP of the United States increased by 13.7 times, with an average annual growth rate of 6.0%, and M2 increased by 20.5 times, with an average annual growth rate of 6.9%. This means that housing prices in New York City underperformed the nominal GDP and M2 of the United States during the same period, while the Los Angeles-Long Beach-Glendale subdivision outperformed the nominal GDP of the United States, close to M2.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3365bc98f3d57e2abfa2e44b8cd57d69\" tg-width=\"970\" tg-height=\"685\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/22a2c22f165e582eba667aa4ba1eed6f\" tg-width=\"966\" tg-height=\"687\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><b>Within the new york metropolitan area, house prices in the new york subdivision have increased more than four times in the past 35 years, ranking second among the four major subdivisions in the new york metropolitan area.</b>In addition to the New York-Jersey City-White Plains subdivision, the New York metropolitan area also includes three subdivisions: NassauCounty-Suffolk County, Dutchess County-Putnam County, and Newark. The trends of housing prices in the four major sub-districts are basically the same. Among them, from 1986 to Q1 2021, the Nassau County-Suffolk County sub-district increased by 4.3 times, with an average annual increase of 4.9%, ranking first; New York-Jersey City-White Plains Subdivision rose 4.1 times, with an average annual increase of 4.6%, ranking second; Newark subdivision and DutchessCounty-Putnam County subdivision (1986-2018 Q1) rose by 3.4 times and 2.6 times respectively, with average annual increases of 4.3% and 4.6% respectively.</p><p><b>Within new york, house prices in Manhattan have nearly doubled in the past 30 years, which is higher than the level of new york.</b>From 1991 to Q1 2021, house prices in Manhattan, New York City increased by 1.9 times, with an average annual increase of 3.7%, and house prices in Queens (1991-2020) increased by 2.8 times, with an average annual increase of 4.7%. During this period, house prices in New York City and New York subdivisions increased by 1.8 times and 2.0 times respectively, with average annual growth rates of 3.5% and 3.8% respectively.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d564c533cc7c696dd75bfb7fc8caa8b\" tg-width=\"970\" tg-height=\"699\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><b>2.4 Japan: Six core cities have increased 210 times in 36 years</b></p><p>Tokyo has three areas: Tokyo Metropolitan Area, Tokyo Metropolitan Area, including Chiba Prefecture, Saitama Prefecture and Tokyo Circle of Kanagawa Prefecture, with land areas of 627, 2188 and 13,558 square kilometers respectively. The land area of Tokyo Circle accounts for 3.6% of Japan's, with a population of 36.94 million in 2020, accounting for 29.3% of Japan's, and the current regional GDP accounts for about 1/3 of Japan's.</p><p>Japanese population mobility is divided into two stages: before 1974, the national population basically continued to gather in Tokyo Circle, Osaka Circle and Nagoya Circle. From 1884 to 1973, in addition to the impact of the war, the population of Tokyo increased from 4.06 million to 26.07 million, accounting for 23.9% from 10.8%; The population of Osaka Circle increased from 3.92 million to 16.36 million, accounting for 10.5% to 15.0%; The population of Nagoya Circle increased from 3.11 million to 9.18 million, accounting for 8.3% to 8.4%. After that, it turned to one pole concentration in Tokyo circle, while the inflow and outflow of population in Nagoya circle were basically balanced, and the long-term net outflow in Osaka circle; By 2016, the population of Tokyo Circle, Osaka Circle and Nagoya Circle was 36.29 million, 18.31 million and 11.34 million respectively, accounting for 28.6%, 14.4% and 8.9% respectively. During this period, the population growth of Osaka Circle and Nagoya Circle was mainly due to natural growth. The population growth of Tokyo stagnated from 1970 to 1997, mainly due to the industrial transfer and population emigration in Tokyo metropolitan area, but the population of Tokyo's non-metropolitan area and Tokyo circle increased significantly.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d574585fc9099cc15439a0835d5fb4e1\" tg-width=\"968\" tg-height=\"688\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><b>Land prices in Japan rose 82 times 36 years before the bubble burst, and the increase in six core cities was as high as 210 times.</b>Before the bursting of the real estate bubble in 1991, Japan's land prices continued to rise except for the adjustment in 1975, rising 82 times from 1955 to 1991, exceeding the nominal GDP increase of 55 times during this period; Among them, the land price of six core cities increased by 210 times, and that of non-core cities increased by 78 times. Looking at stages, from 1955 to 1974, land prices in six core cities including Tokyo, Yokohama, Nagoya, Kyoto, Osaka and Kobe increased by 40.6 times, with an average annual rate of 21.7%, while other cities increased by 29.6 times, with an average annual rate of 19.7%. During the same period, the nominal GDP increased by 15 times, with an average annual rate of 15.7%. From 1975 to 1991, land prices in six core cities increased by 4.5 times, with an average annual average of 11.2%, and land prices in other cities increased by 1.7 times, with an average annual average of 6.4%. During the same period, nominal GDP increased by 2.2 times, with an average annual average of 7.5%.</p><p>Japan's housing prices continued to rise after the adjustment in 1975, mainly due to economic growth and the support of the main home buyers. However, due to the rapid rise in the later period, the sharp decline in the birth population, the peak of the main home buyers in the 1990s, and the wrong response of the Japanese government, the real estate bubble burst in the early 1990s. After that, the land price in Japan continued to adjust until 2005. In 2017, the land price in Japan was only 47.1% of the peak. Land prices in six core cities fell from 1992 to 2005. After experiencing a short-term increase from 2006 to 2008, they fell again from 2009 to 2012 due to the global financial crisis. They began to rise in 2013 and have only been equivalent to 35.3% of the peak in 1991; Due to population outflow, land prices in non-core cities in Japan have been falling since 1992. In 2017, land prices were equivalent to 47.5% of the peak in 1991.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b856c3f9e7ac62406c37642cf3647a60\" tg-width=\"967\" tg-height=\"689\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><b>The trend of land price in Tokyo is basically consistent with that of Japan as a whole, but the peak was in 1990, one year earlier than that of Japan as a whole. From 1976 to 1990, it rose 3.4 times, with an average annual average of 11.1%; After that, it continued to fall until 2005, and in 2014 it stopped falling and rebounded ahead of the whole country.</b>Housing prices in Tokyo and Osaka peaked in 1990, while land prices in Nagoya and local areas peaked in 1991 and 1992 respectively. From 1976 to the peak of housing prices, land prices in Tokyo, Osaka, Nagoya, and local areas increased by 3.4, 3.9, 2.0, and 0.9 times respectively, with an average annual growth rate of 11.1%, 12.0%, 7.7%, and 4.0% respectively; Especially before the burst of the housing price bubble, the land price in Tokyo soared by 0.95 times from 1987 to 1988, and the land price in Osaka soared by 1.6 times from 1988 to 1990. From 1976 to 1991, Japan's nominal GDP increased by 1.8 times, with an average annual growth rate of 7.2%, and M2 increased by 2.7 times, with an average annual growth rate of 9.0%.</p><p>After the real estate bubble burst in the early 1990s, the land price in Tokyo dropped sharply until 2005, and began to rise from 2006 to 2008. However, due to the impact of the global financial crisis, it began to adjust again in 2009 and began to rise again in 2014. By 2020, the Tokyo area, Osaka area, Nagoya area, and local land prices will only be 40.7%, 27.8%, 59.0%, and 56.7% of the peak respectively. The reason why the adjustment of land price in Osaka is the most tragic is that it rose the most before the bubble burst and lacked population support.</p><p><b>The land price in the Tokyo Metropolitan Area peaked in 1988, and tripled in the five years before the peak. At the same time, the adjustment was early and the decline stopped quickly. From 2005 to 2020, the cumulative increase exceeded 25%, the highest in the Tokyo area.</b>Land prices in Tokyo and Tokyo metropolitan area peaked in 1988, two years earlier than Tokyo circle and three years earlier than Japan as a whole. In the first five years of the peak, house prices in Tokyo metropolitan area tripled, which was 1.8 times higher than that in Tokyo and 1.2 times higher than that in Tokyo. After peaking, house prices in Tokyo and the Tokyo metropolitan area continued to fall until 2005, then fell from 2009 to 2013, and began to rise in 2014. From 2005 to 2020, housing prices in Tokyo and Tokyo metropolitan areas increased by 13.3% and 27.5% respectively, housing prices in non-districts of Tokyo were basically the same, and housing prices in Tokyo fell by 1.7%. In 2016, housing prices in Tokyo, districts and non-metropolitan areas were equivalent to 42.7%, 46.7% and 38.8% of their peaks respectively, which was very close to 40.7% in Tokyo circle.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/befe38251db05984d0243ae602871331\" tg-width=\"967\" tg-height=\"685\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1a8bad47d30fee108ac396d9cb7ee063\" tg-width=\"966\" tg-height=\"695\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>3 Conclusion: In the past 51 years, real estate in metropolitan areas has outperformed the money printing press and promoted new housing reform</p><p><b>1) From a global perspective, a country's real estate market depends on: economic growth, demographic changes, money supply, and housing system. Among them, the first two items are fundamental factors; Excessive currency issuance will lead to a sharp rise in domestic local currency house prices, but not necessarily in US dollar house prices, that is, it may not necessarily have investment value from a global perspective; Housing system is the policy orientation of a country's real estate market.</b></p><p><b>2) Real estate has anti-inflation properties and can partially share the dividends of economic growth. Moreover, real estate in metropolitan areas of most countries is one of the few assets that can outperform money printing presses.</b>From 1970 to Q1 2021, the growth rate of local currency housing prices in 23 economies all exceeded their respective CPI increases to varying degrees. The average annual growth rate of actual housing prices in the United Kingdom, New Zealand, Hong Kong, and Malaysia after deducting CPI can still reach more than 3%, while Japan and Germany after deducting CPI The actual housing price growth is close to 0. Compared with local currency nominal GDP growth, in Q1 1970-2021, only a few of the 23 economies, such as New Zealand, outperformed in housing prices, which means that housing prices in most economies can only partially share the economic growth dividend.</p><p><b>In the long run, global currency excessive issuance is a common phenomenon. The growth rate of broad money is mostly higher than the nominal GDP growth. There are not many assets that can outperform the printing press. Real estate in metropolitan areas of most countries is one of them.</b>From an international perspective, the average annual growth rate of house prices in the UK from 1987 to 2020 was 5.6%. Although it was higher than the average annual growth rate of nominal GDP of 4.5%, it was still lower than the average annual growth rate of broad money of 7.1%; From 1960 to 2020, the average annual growth rate of housing prices in the United States was 4.5%, while the average annual growth rate of nominal GDP and M2 was 6.3% and 7.1% respectively. From the perspective of metropolitan areas, in the United States, from 1975 to 2020, house prices in the New York-Jersey-White Plains subdivision grew at an average annual rate of 5.8%, which was lower than the 6.8% of M2 in the same period and the same as the 5.8% of GDP. In China, the average annual growth rate of broad money supply M2 has been 15% in the past 40 years. Since 1998, the average annual compound growth rate of the average sales price of new housing in China has reached 7.72%, which is nearly 8 percentage points lower than the growth rate of M2 in the same period, while the housing prices in first-tier cities are basically the same as the growth rate of M2.</p><p><b>3) From the perspective of global asset allocation, some emerging economies with great economic growth potential, especially real estate in their core cities, have great investment potential.</b>Generally speaking, the over-issuance of currency in emerging economies is serious, and the increase of house price is also large. However, from the perspective of global asset allocation, investors are concerned about the increase of US dollar house price, that is, the exchange rate change caused by the relative over-issuance of currency is excluded, while the increase of US dollar house price is mainly related to the nominal GDP growth of US dollar, which can decompose factors such as economic growth, demographic change and housing system. Some emerging economies with great economic growth potential may have a \"golden age\" similar to that of China's real estate market in the future, but we need to pay attention to political, legal and other related risks.</p><p><b>4) Build a residential-oriented new housing system in China.</b>The 20-year development of China's real estate shows that short-term regulation can't solve the fundamental contradiction of long-term imbalance between supply and demand, and deepening the reform of housing system is the foundation to realize the stable and healthy development of the real estate market.</p><p><b>First, reform the \"linkage between people and land\" and optimize land supply.</b>At present, the \"man-land linkage\" is to link the number of agricultural migrants settled in with the supply of construction land, which can't solve the contradiction between the inflow of population in hot cities and the tight housing supply. In the future, the newly-added permanent population should be linked to land supply, and the inter-provincial cultivated land occupation and compensation balance should be linked to the increase or decrease of urban and rural land, such as the land sales indicators in northeast and western regions, which can effectively solve the problem of a large amount of waste of land indicators in northeast and western China. Strictly implement the principle of \"linking the inventory de-stocking cycle with land supply\" and optimize the current land supply mode.</p><p><b>The second is to maintain the long-term stability of monetary policy and real estate financial policy.</b>Implement a long-term and stable housing credit financial policy, stabilize the expectations of property buyers, support the demand for rigid and improved housing purchases, and curb speculative demand. Support the reasonable financing needs of real estate enterprises, standardize the use of financing, and prevent excessive financing.</p><p><b>The third is to change the housing supply structure and enrich the main body of supply.</b>At present, China's housing supply system emphasizes sales over leasing, and a multi-subject supply housing system has not yet been established. In the future, the main supply body will change from developers to the government, developers, leasing intermediary companies, long-term rental companies and other multi-party suppliers; The form of supply will also shift from commercial housing to commercial housing, rental housing, shared property housing and other categories. However, the exploration of housing supply structure and the introduction of policies must be adapted to local conditions, and cities with net population outflow should be especially wary of blindly following the trend.</p><p><b>The fourth is to steadily promote the pilot project of property tax.</b>With the end of the era of large-scale development, the land transfer fee has decreased and the tax revenue in the transaction link has decreased in the era of stock housing. It is the general trend to introduce property tax. From international experience, property tax is usually regarded as an important and stable source of local fiscal revenue by mature market economies. The general principle of property tax reform is \"legislation first, full authorization and step-by-step advancement\". \"Legislation first\" means legislation first and then levy; \"Full authorization\" means authorizing all localities to pilot projects according to local conditions, not across the board; the property tax itself is the local main tax according to international experience; \"Distributed promotion\" is active and steady promotion, and we should strive for a mature scheme and do a good job in guiding social expectations.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://www.gelonghui.com/p/481029\">格隆汇</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c3c5822c22b6cfd1d0ae2625b7bc085e","relate_stocks":{"515060":"房地产ETF基金","DRN":"房地产指数ETF-Direxion三倍做多","ARL":"美国房地产投资"},"source_url":"https://www.gelonghui.com/p/481029","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6b8fa6424aebe95f6781d04ef17a1852","article_id":"1118683392","content_text":"作者：任泽平团队\n导读\n我们提出了业内广为流传的分析框架：房地产长期看人口、中期看土地、短期看金融。本篇放眼全球房价走势，考察驱动不同经济体和主要大都市圈房价走势的因素及规律。\n不同经济体本币房价长期走势差异可解释为四方面：经济增长带来的收入效应、人口总量与结构变动引起的人口效应、货币供应带来的货币幻觉、住房制度影响的供求格局。\n近51年，23个经济体房价平均累计上涨29.6倍、年均增长超6%。依据房价涨幅大小，可分为三类：一是南非、新西兰等4个经济体房价累计涨幅在60倍以上和年均增长8.5%-10%；二是房价累计涨幅在5-50倍之间和年均增长5.5%-8%之间的，有爱尔兰、澳大利亚等14个经济体；三是房价累计涨幅在5倍以内和年均增长低于4%的以内的，有泰国、瑞士等5个经济体。\n疫情期间房价涨幅较大，其源于各国实施量化宽松政策、疫情积压的改善需求释放等。近一年主要经济体房价平均上涨超7%，土耳其上涨32%，新西兰上涨22%，而亚洲主要国家涨幅低于全球平均，新加坡房价涨幅最大，为6.1%；中国房价涨幅为4.3%。\n一国内部人口流入的大都市圈房价涨幅最大。伦敦房价53年上涨113倍，内伦敦涨幅更大；日本地价在泡沫破灭前36年上涨82倍，六个核心城市涨幅更是高达210倍。\n我们呼吁推动新一轮房改（新房改）迫在眉睫，以人地挂钩、控制货币和房产税为核心加快构建房地产长效机制，促进房地产市场长期平稳健康发展，还有最后十年时间窗口。\n正文\n1  不同经济体房价涨幅差异：经济增长、人口变化、货币供应、住房制度\n1.1 近51年23个经济体房价走势差异明显\n1970年Q1-2021年Q1，23个经济体房价平均累计上涨29.6倍、年均增长超6%。依据房价涨幅大小，可分为三类：\n一是南非、新西兰、西班牙、英国等4个经济体房价累计涨幅在60倍以上和年均增长8.5%-10%。南非、新西兰房价累计涨幅分别高达110.5倍、86.9倍、年均增长分别为9.7%、9.2%，分别位居23个经济体中第一、第二；英国房价累计涨幅62.3倍，年均增长8.6%，位居23经济体中第三；西班牙1979年Q1-2021年Q1房价累计涨幅60.2倍，年均增长8.6%。\n二是房价累计涨幅在5-50倍之间和年均增长5.5%-8%之间的，有爱尔兰、澳大利亚、中国香港、挪威、意大利、加拿大、瑞典、法国、丹麦、荷兰、芬兰、马来西亚、美国、比利时14个经济体。爱尔兰、澳大利亚房价累计上涨48.1倍、47.3倍，年均增长均为7.9%；中国香港1979年Q1-2021年Q1年房价累计上涨19.9倍，年均增长7.7%；马来西亚1988年Q1-2021年Q1年房价累计上涨5.1倍，年均增长5.6%；其他10国涨幅在15-40倍之间，年均增速在5.5%-7.5%。\n三是房价累计涨幅在5倍以内和年均增长低于4%的以内的，有泰国、瑞士、韩国、德国、日本5个经济体。其中泰国1991Q1-2021Q1年上涨1.8倍，年均增长3.5%；韩国1975年Q1-2021年Q1房价累计上涨3.2倍、年均增长3.2%;1970年Q1-2021年Q1，瑞士、德国、日本房价累计上涨4.8倍、3.6倍、2.7倍，年均增长3.5%、3.0%、2.6%。\n\n\n随着经济金融全球化深入推进，全球房价走势联动性逐渐增强。比如，1980年代中后期北欧四国房价下跌，1990年代初日韩房价下跌，1997年东南亚房价下跌，2007年全球房地产下跌。从房价走势看，近51年23个经济体可大致分为四类：\n一是房价基本持续上行、期间调整幅度小的经济体，有澳大利亚、新西兰、加拿大、法国等4个。1970年以来上述4国任何一次下行周期中累计下跌幅度均未超过9%。其中，澳大利亚、新西兰、加拿大等3国未曾出现连续两年下跌的情况；法国在1992-1995年、2008-2009年、2011-2015年三次明显调整，但三次累计跌幅均未曾超过7%。\n二是房价曾大幅下挫但后期上行超过之前高点的经济体，有英国、美国、瑞士、荷兰、南非、挪威、中国香港、马来西亚、泰国等14个。比如，荷兰房价在1979-1982年暴跌近30%、2008-2013年大跌超19%，南非房价在1984-1986年下跌11%，芬兰房价在1990-1992年暴跌37%，瑞士房价在1990-1998大跌22%，马来西亚、泰国分别在1997-1998、1998-1999年累计下跌均超过11%，中国香港在1998-2003年累计暴跌超60%，美国房价在2007-2011年大跌超30%，英国房价在1990-1992年下跌近11%、2008-2009年下跌超13%。上述经济体房价在大幅下跌后继续向上，现均已超过之前高点。\n三是前期房价泡沫破灭、至今仍不及高点的经济体，有日本、西班牙、爱尔兰、意大利等4个。虽然时代和国别不同，但历次房地产泡沫堆积无一例外受到流动性过剩和低利率的刺激，而历次房地产泡沫崩溃则都跟货币收紧和加息有关。日本、西班牙、爱尔兰、意大利房价分别在1990、2007、2007、2008年见顶，其中前三个国家房价近几年稍有反弹，2020年上述四国房价仅分别相当于峰值的63.4%、84.7%、84.8%、83.2%。\n四是房价走势基本平稳、涨幅总体较小的经济体，只有德国1个。1970年以来德国房价有三次比较大的上涨周期：1971-1981年累计上涨近1.8倍，1987-1994年累计上涨35.1%，2009-2021年Q1累计上涨67.6%；而在任何一个下行周期中累计下跌未曾超过10%。\n\n\n\n\n1.2 本币房价长期走势与经济增长、人口变化、货币供应及住房制度相关\n不同经济体本币房价长期走势差异可解释为四方面：经济增长带来的收入效应、人口总量与结构变动引起的人口效应、货币供应带来的货币幻觉、住房制度影响的供求格局。房地产兼具消费品属性（居住需求，包括刚需和改善性需求）和金融属性（投资投机需求，并可以加杠杆），因而房价不仅取决于供需（人口及居民收入、土地供给），还与货币供应密切相关。从全球房地产市场运行经验看，在无争、瘟疫、自然灾害、经济金融危机等冲击的情况下，一国房价随着经济发展而长期上涨。\n1970-2021年Q1，23个经济体本币房价年均增速、本币名义GDP增速分别为6.3%、7.5%，二者较为接近、且相关系数为0.52；如剔除泰国、马来西亚，21个经济体的相关系数为0.54；如剔除泰国、马来西亚、韩国、中国香港，19个经济体相关系数达0.87。名义GDP可分解为人均不变价GDP、人口、GDP平减指数，加上影响供求格局的住房制度，四因素可较好地解释不同经济体房价长期走势差异。\n\n1）经济增长带来的收入效应。不变价GDP增长反映剔除价格后的真实经济增长，人均本币不变价GDP增长意味着居民实际购买力提高、增加房产需求。1970-2021年Q1,23个经济体本币不变价年均增长的平均数为2.7%、中位数为2.2%，人均本币不变价年均增速的平均数为1.9%、中位数为1.6%（部分经济体数据计算从有房价数据时开始，西班牙、中国香港、韩国、马来西亚、泰国分别从1971、1979、1975、1988、1991年开始）。其中，韩国人均本币不变价GDP年均增长高达5.3%,爱尔兰、中国香港、马来西亚、泰国年均增长均在2.5%以上，其他经济体多在2%以下，南非仅有0.2%。\n\n2）人口总量与结构变化引起的人口效应。人口对经济体层面房价的影响主要体现在如下三个方面：\n一是人口总量变动影响房价。人口总量变动包括自然增长、跨国（境）人口流动，一般而言，人口规模变化与住房需求呈正比。根据世界银行数据，2019年全球生育率为2.4，其中高收入、中高收入、中低收入、低收入经济体总和生育率分别为1.6、1.8、2.7、4.6，高收入和中高收入生育率已经不足以弥补人口世代更替。但高收入经济体吸引了大量人口跨国流入。1960-2020年，高收入经济体人口净流入规模累计1.4亿，来自中高、中低、低收入经济体的比例分别为26.4%、50.0%、27.1%。中高收入经济体人口生活水平接近高收入经济体，迁移动力不强；低收入经济体人口迁移动力强，但难以承担迁移成本；中低收入经济体人口迁移动力强，且能承担迁移成本。根据联合国统计，德国人口在2004-2011年一度累计减少约230万、后因移民重回增长，日本人口于2009开始负增长，意大利人口从2016年开始负增长。\n二是人口结构变化影响房价。20-50岁主力置业人群、家庭户规模等人口结构变化，将引致住房需求变化。在家庭户规模方面，由于结婚年龄推迟、不婚率和离婚率提高、低生育率、寿命延长、人口老龄化、人口流动等，导致全球家庭户规模呈小型化趋势，这增加了一定的住房需求。1960-2015年，美国家庭户规模从3.33降至2.54人，日本从4.14人降至2.39人；此外，1980-2015年，韩国从4.78人降至2.73人。在主力置业人群方面，美国20-49岁人口规模尚在持续增长，日本、韩国、英国分别已在1996、2004、2011年见顶，主力购房人群的规模变化对房地产市场具有非常显著的影响。\n三是人口通过经济增长影响房价。人口红利是许多追赶经济体过去经济高速增长的重要源泉，在人口红利消失后经济往往转为中速或低速增长。\n\n\n3）货币供应带来的货币幻觉。从国际经验看，在经济发展过程中，绝大部分国家均存在不同程度的货币超发，从而引起资产价格变化。一般而言，广义货币供应增速高则通胀高。1970-2021Q1年，23个经济体年均GDP平减指数平均数为4.3%、中位数为4.0%，不仅在绝对水平上与23个经济体房价年均增长的平均数6.3%较为接近，而且波动较为一致。比如，1970-2021年Q1，南非广义货币增长532.5倍，在货币大幅超发下南非名义GDP增长390.2倍，实际GDP仅增长1.9倍，GDP平减指数增长130.2倍，房价上涨101.6倍；美国广义货币增长33.2倍，名义GDP增长19.0倍，实际GDP上涨2.8倍，GDP平减指数增长5.2倍，房价上涨13倍。但是，货币超发易滋生房地产等资产价格泡沫，极端情况下甚至可能引发经济危机，比如1990年代日本房地产泡沫和2007年美国次贷危机。\n由于新兴经济体广义货币增长较快，因而以本币计算的房价涨幅较发达经济体更大。根据世界银行数据，2001-2020年印度、墨西哥等9个代表性新兴经济体广义货币年均增速平均为13.7%，明显高于英美日等6个代表性发达经济体的5.3%.据BIS统计，2010-2020年新兴经济体房价年均增长6.8%，超过发达经济体3.8%的房价年均增速。\n\n4）住房制度影响的供求格局。住房制度是一国房地产市场导向，一个好的住房制度能使房价长期稳定、支持实体经济发展，一个坏的住房制度可能引发房价暴涨暴跌、削弱甚至掏空实体经济。德国房价之所以长期稳定，关键在于其居住导向的住房制度设计，三大支柱分别为：中性稳健的货币政策与住房金融体系，鼓励居民长期持有住房、打击投机的税收制度，保护租户权益、鼓励长期租房的租赁制度。新加坡目前形成以组屋为主、私宅为辅的二元化供应体系，供给结构呈现“廉租房-廉价房-改善型组屋-私宅”的阶梯化分布，住房自有率超过90%，基本实现居者有其屋。\n\n1.3 美元房价涨幅与本币房价涨幅差异明显\n以美元计，1970-2021年Q1，23个经济体房价涨幅发生明显变化，且美元房价涨幅与美元名义GDP增长存在一定相关性。如果一经济体货币超发较美国严重，则货币将对美元贬值，因此本币房价大幅上涨并不意味着美元房价大幅上涨，在全球来看并不一定具备投资价值。依据美元房价涨幅，可大体分为四类：一是累计涨幅超过50倍和年均增长超过8%，仅新西兰1个。二是累计涨幅25-35倍和年均增长7%-7.5%，有英国、荷兰、西班牙3个经济体。三是累计涨幅10-20倍和年均增长5%-6.9%，有爱尔兰、澳大利亚、挪威、比利时、意大利、日本等14个经济体。四是累计涨幅低于9倍和年均增长5%以下，有德国、马来西亚、南非、泰国、韩国5个经济体。与本币房价涨幅相比，变化最大的是南非，1970-2021Q1年本币房价涨幅高达110.5倍，但美元房价涨幅仅3.8倍。此外，瑞士本币房价涨幅仅4.8倍，但美元房价达25.9倍；意大利本币房价上涨34.7倍，但美元房价涨幅缩至12.1倍；德国本币房价上涨3.6倍，美元房价上涨8.8倍。\n从相关系数看，23个经济体美元房价增长与美元名义GDP增长的相关系数仅为0.20，相关性较弱，但如果剔除美元名义GDP增长75.3倍、美元房价上涨仅0.7倍的韩国，以及美元名义GDP增长99.6倍、美元房价上涨仅28.7倍的爱尔兰，剩下21个经济体的相关系数则达0.77；这表明，从全球地产资产配置的角度看，一个经济体美元房价增长与美元名义GDP增长的正相关性大体上是成立的。不同经济体的美元房价长期走势差异也可以类似本币房价上期走势进行相应因素分解，区别在于通过汇率机制剔除了一个经济体相对美国的货币超发因素。\n\n1.4 疫情下的全球房价涨幅明显\n近一年主要经济体房价平均上涨超7%，土耳其上涨32%，新西兰超20%。根据KnightFrank数据，2020年Q1至2021年Q1，土耳其房价上涨32%，高居榜首；紧随其后的新西兰上涨22%；卢森堡位居第三，涨幅为16.6%；斯洛伐克位居第四，涨幅为15.5%；美国位居第五，涨幅为13%，创2005年以来最大涨幅。而亚洲主要国家涨幅低于全球平均，新加坡房价涨幅最大，为6.1%；紧随其后的日本上涨5.7%；中国房价涨幅为4.3%。\n疫情期间房价涨幅较大源于各国实施量化宽松政策、疫情积压的改善需求释放等。1）从货币政策看，为刺激疫情冲击下的经济复苏，各国央行实施量化宽松政策。一方面，量化宽松政策下市场上的流动资金变多，通过企业纾困资金、失业救济金等方式到了民众手中。同时在宽松货币政策下，房贷利率降低，如美国抵押贷款银行协会锚定的30年固定抵押贷款利率达到历史新低值3.08%。另一方面，量化宽松政策带来的货币贬值让民众急于寻找保值资产，具备保值增值属性的房地产成为投资的首选。2)从需求看，疫情期间积压的改善需求，在疫情得到一定控制后释放。其次，疫情这类“黑天鹅”事件让越来越多投资者开始试图通过分散配置资产来降低风险，拥有第二套住房成为更多高净值人士的选择。3)从供给看，宽松货币政策引发资产价格普遍上涨，原材料价格上涨增加建筑成本，同时疫情导致工人短缺，加剧原材料供给紧张，进一步推高原材料价格，进而推动房价上涨。\n\n2  一国内部哪个区域房价涨幅最大：人口流入的大都市圈\n2.1 英国：伦敦房价53年上涨113倍，内伦敦涨幅更大\n伦敦有三个范围：伦敦城（City of London）、大伦敦（Greater London）、伦敦都市区。伦敦城即伦敦金融城、面积很小，一般意义上的伦敦指大伦敦地区，包括319平方公里的内伦敦和1254平方公里的外伦敦，土地面积合计1573平方公里、占英国的0.6%；伦敦都市区则由大伦敦及周边地区组成。由于城市规划问题等造成大城市病突出，英国政府一度控制伦敦特别是内伦敦人口、在二战后外迁产业、大量建设新城，1941-1991年年伦敦人口从862万降至639万，后回升至2017年的882万，当前占英国人口比重为13.4%。但在经济作用下，伦敦周边地区人口长期集聚，1931-2001年英国东南地区人口从不到1300万增至1800多万，占比从27.5%增至31.1%。\n\n近53年大伦敦地区房价涨幅达113倍，远超英国、英格兰地区房价平均涨幅（71、81倍），和英国名义GDP涨幅（51倍）。根据英国国家统计办公室（ONS）数据，在英国，1968年-2021年3月，大伦敦地区房价从0.44万英镑/套上涨至50万英镑/套，英格兰地区从0.34万英镑/套上涨至27.5万英镑/套，全国从0.36万英镑/套上涨至25.6万英镑/套，伦敦地区房价涨幅达113倍，高于全国的71倍和英格兰地区的81倍。而同期（1967-2020年）英国名义GDP上涨50.7倍、年均增长7.7%，房价涨幅明显跑赢名义GDP增长。\n分阶段看，大伦敦与英格兰、英国房价涨幅在1994年之前非常接近，但在1995年后波动明显加大，特别是在2008年全球金融危机之后。1968-1994年，大伦敦、英格兰、英国房价涨幅分别为15.0倍、14.7倍、14.6倍，差异较小；但之后至2018年3月，房价涨幅明显分化，分别为5.3倍、3.5倍、3倍。受2008年金融危机影响，2009年4月大伦敦、英格兰、英国房价同比下跌16.6%、15.0%、14.9%；之后，在货币刺激量化宽松背景下，房价逐渐回升，至2018年3月年均增速分别为7.5%、4.5%、4.1%。\n\n从伦敦都市区内部看，近26年大伦敦房价涨幅超6.5倍，位居地区首位，周边地区涨幅均低于6.0%。1995年1月至2021年3年，大伦敦房价上涨6.7倍，而Kent、Hertfordshire、Essex、Windsor and Maidenhead、Surrey周边地区的涨幅分别为5.5、5.7、5.5、5.2、5.4倍，大伦敦区房价涨幅明显高于周边地区。此外，该时期英国第二大城市伯明翰房价上涨仅4.6倍，明显低于伦敦及周边地区涨幅。\n从大伦敦内部看，近26年内伦敦核心区域房价涨幅超7倍，外伦敦房价涨幅低于6.5倍。1995年1月至2021年3月，内伦敦房价从7.83万英镑/套涨至59.45万英镑/套，上涨7.6倍；外伦敦房价从7.30万英镑/套涨至45.10万英镑/套，上涨6.2倍。当前伦敦房价最贵是Kensington and Chelsea（122.72万英镑/套），其次是City of Westminster（93.68万英镑/套），分别较1995年1月上涨6.7倍、7.0倍。\n\n\n2.2 法国：巴黎市房价55年上涨44倍，涨幅超过周边地区\n巴黎有三个范围：巴黎市（或称小巴黎）、大巴黎（包括近郊3省）、巴黎大区（包括远郊4省，又称“法兰西岛”），土地面积分别为105、761、12001平方公里，其中巴黎大区土地面积占法国的1.8%。随着产业集聚，法国人口长期持续向巴黎及周边地区集聚，1876-2014年巴黎大区人口从332万人基本持续增至1203万人，人口占比从8.6%提升至18.8%，经济份额从1990年的28.4%提升至2014年的30.4%。期间，出于控制人口以治理大城市病的目的，巴黎市有过较长时间减少，1931-1999年从289万持续降至213万，之后回升至2018年的218万。\n近55年巴黎市55年房价上涨43.7倍，明显超过法国房价平均涨幅（26.6倍）、法国名义GDP涨幅（29.5倍），其年均增速分别为7.2%、6.2%、6.4%。在此之前的1945-1965年，受战后重建、婴儿潮及货币大幅超发等影响，巴黎市、法国房价分别暴涨54.1、38.3倍，年均增长22.2%、20.1%，但仍然落后于名义GDP年均增长（1950-1965年，51.2%）。\n分阶段看，1966年之后巴黎市房价走势可分为四个阶段：1）1966-1990年，房价快速上涨期。该时期巴黎市房价、法国房价、法国名义GDP年均增长10.7%、9.3%、10.6%。2）1992-1997年，房价下跌期。由于1985-1990年左右巴黎市房地产投机旺盛、房价涨幅过大（其中1987-1990年连续4年上涨均超过17%），巴黎市房价开始大幅下跌。该时期巴黎市房价、法国房价、法国名义GDP年均增长-6.1%、-0.4%、3.8%，至1997年底巴黎房价惨跌至1991年的69%。3）1998-2015年，波动增长期。该时期巴黎市房价、法国房价、法国名义GDP年均增长7.2%、5.0%、3.0%。其中，2013-2015年巴黎房价连续下跌。但2015年后巴黎房价迎来一波较大涨幅。\n\n巴黎市房价涨幅位居巴黎大区之首，1997年Q4至2021年Q1，巴黎市房价涨幅超3.5倍，明显高于近郊三省和远郊四省。由于巴黎市土地面积较小（105平方公里），稍大于北京市东城区和西城区面积之和（93平方公里），因此我们不再对巴黎市内部房价进行分析，而是将巴黎市作为巴黎大区的核心区域，分析其与巴黎大区其他区域房价的走势差异。根据法国统计局（INSEE）数据，1997年Q4至2021年Q1，巴黎市房价涨幅达3.7倍，明显超过近郊三省的2.5倍、远郊四省的1.6倍，该时期法国名义GDP涨幅为0.8倍。近郊三省Hauts de Seine、Seine St Denis、Val de Marne房价涨幅分别为2.6倍、2.5倍、2.4倍。远郊四省Yvelines、Val d'Oise、Seine and Marne、Essonne房价涨幅分别为1.8倍、1.7倍、1.5倍、1.5倍。\n\n2.3 美国：纽约市房价46年上涨9倍，皇后区表现较优\n纽约有多重涵义：纽约市、纽约都会区、纽约联合统计区等。其中，纽约市土地面积为789平方公里，2015年人口855万；纽约都会区（NewYork-Newark-Jersey City Metropolitan Statistical Area，NY-NJ-PAMSA）面积约1.7万平方公里，2015年人口2018万；纽约联合统计区（New York-Newark CombinedStatistical Area）由纽约都会区及毗邻都会区组成，2015年人口2372万。从人口看，由于美国经济重心向西海岸、南海岸偏移，1950-2015年纽约地区人口虽基本持续增长，但增幅84%远小于洛杉矶地区的328%，这使得纽约地区的人口占比明显下滑。期间，因人口郊区化及制造业衰退，纽约市人口在1950-1980年从789万减至702万；后因城市更新及产业转型升级等，回升至2015年的855万，2019年人口小幅下降到842万人。\n近46年纽约市房价上涨超9倍，高于美国平均水平，但低于纽约市周边及洛杉矶地区房价涨幅。根据美国联邦住房金融局（FHFA）统计，1975-2021年Q1，美国、纽约市、纽约-泽西-白原分区（纽约都会区分区之一）（1976-2021年Q1）、洛杉矶-长滩-格伦代尔分区（洛杉矶都会区分区之一）房价分别上涨8.1倍、9.9倍、12.9倍、19.7倍，年均增速分别为4.9%、5.3%、6.0%、6.8%。纽约-泽西-白原分区房价涨幅虽不及洛杉矶-长滩-格伦代尔分区，但仍显著高于美国平均水平。此外，该时期美国名义GDP上涨13.7倍、年均增长6.0%，M2增长20.5倍、年均增长6.9%。这意味着，纽约市房价跑输同时期美国名义GDP和M2，而洛杉矶-长滩-格伦代尔分区跑赢美国名义GDP，接近M2。\n\n\n在纽约都会区内部，纽约分区房价近35年上涨超4倍，在纽约都会区四大分区中位居第二。除纽约-泽西市-白原分区外，纽约都会区还包括NassauCounty–Suffolk County、Dutchess County-Putnam County、Newark三个分区。四大分区房价走势基本一致，其中1986年-2021年Q1,Nassau County–Suffolk County分区上涨4.3倍，年均涨幅为4.9%，位居第一；纽约-泽西市-白原分区上涨4.1倍，年均涨幅为4.6%，位居第二；Newark分区和DutchessCounty-Putnam County分区（1986-2018年Q1）分别上涨3.4倍、2.6倍，年均涨幅分别为4.3%、4.6%。\n在纽约市内部，曼哈顿区近30年房价上涨近2倍，高于纽约市水平。1991-2021年Q1，纽约市曼哈顿区房价上涨1.9倍、年均上涨3.7%，皇后区（1991-2020年）房价上涨2.8倍、年均上涨4.7%，而该时期纽约市和纽约分区房价分别上涨1.8倍、2.0倍，年均增速分别为3.5%、3.8%。\n\n2.4 日本：六个核心城市曾36年上涨210倍\n东京有三个范围：东京都区，东京都，包括千叶县、琦玉县和神奈川县的东京圈，土地面积分别为627、2188、13558平方公里。东京圈土地面积占日本的3.6%，2020年人口3694万，占日本的29.3%，当前地区生产总值约占日本的1/3。\n日本人口流动分为两个阶段：在1974年前，全国人口基本持续向东京圈、大阪圈、名古屋圈三极集聚。1884-1973年，除战争影响外，东京圈人口406万人增至2607万人，占比从10.8%增至23.9%；大阪圈人口从392万人增至1636万人，占比从10.5%增至15.0%；名古屋圈人口从311万人增至918万人，占比从8.3%增至8.4%。之后则转为向东京圈一极集中，而名古屋圈人口流入流出基本平衡、大阪圈长期净流出；到2016年，东京圈、大阪圈、名古屋圈人口分别为3629、1831、1134万，占比分别为28.6%、14.4%、8.9%，该时期大阪圈和名古屋圈人口增长主要源于自然增长。东京都人口在1970-1997年人口增长停滞，主要在于东京都区产业转移、人口外迁，但东京都非都区、东京圈三县人口显著增长。\n\n日本地价在泡沫破灭前36年上涨82倍，六个核心城市涨幅更是高达210倍。在1991年房地产泡沫破灭前，日本地价除1975年调整外保持持续上涨，1955-1991年上涨82倍，超过该时期55倍的名义GDP涨幅；其中，六个核心城市地价上涨210倍，非核心城市上涨78倍。分阶段看，1955-1974年日本东京区部、横滨、名古屋、京都、大阪、神户等六个核心城市地价上涨40.6倍、年均21.7%，其他城市上涨29.6倍、年均19.7%，同期名义GDP上涨15倍、年均15.7%。1975-1991年六个核心城市地价上涨4.5倍、年均11.2%，其他城市上涨1.7倍、年均6.4%，同期名义GDP上涨2.2倍、年均7.5%。\n1975年日本房价调整后还能继续上涨，主要在于经济增长和主力购房人群支撑，但因后期上涨过快、出生人口大幅下滑、1990年代主力置业人群见顶以及日本政府错误应对等，导致1990年代初房地产泡沫破灭。之后日本地价持续调整至2005年，2017年日本地价仅是峰值的47.1%。六个核心城市地价从1992年一直下跌到2005年，在经历了2006-2008年的短期上涨之后，因全球金融危机于2009-2012年再次下跌，2013年开始回升至今，2017年地价仅相当于1991年峰值的35.3%；因人口流出，日本非核心城市地价从1992年一直下跌，2017年地价相当于1991年峰值的47.5%。\n\n东京圈地价走势与日本整体基本一致，但峰值在1990年、较日本整体早1年，1976-1990年上涨3.4倍、年均11.1%；之后持续下跌至2005年，2014年已领先于全国止跌回升。东京圈、大阪圈房价在1990年见顶，名古屋圈和地方地价分别在1991、1992年见顶。1976年至房价峰值期间，东京圈、大阪圈、名古屋圈、地方地价分别上涨3.4、3.9、2.0、0.9倍，分别年均增长11.1%、12.0%、7.7%、4.0%；特别是在房价泡沫破灭前，1987-1988年东京圈地价暴涨0.95倍，1988-1990年大阪圈地价暴涨1.6倍。而在1976-1991年，日本名义GDP上涨1.8倍、年均增长7.2%，M2上涨2.7倍、年均增长9.0%。\n1990年代初房地产泡沫破灭后，东京圈地价大幅下跌至2005年，2006-2008年开始回升，但受全球金融危机影响于2009年开始再次调整，2014年开始再次回升。至2020年，东京圈、大阪圈、名古屋圈、地方地价仅分别是峰值的40.7%、27.8%、59.0%、56.7%。大阪圈地价之所以调整幅度最为惨烈，是因为其在泡沫破灭前上涨幅度最大、又缺乏人口支撑。\n东京都区部地价在1988年见顶，见顶前五年上涨2倍，同时调整早、止跌快,2005-2020年累计上涨超25%、为东京圈内部最高。东京都及东京都区地价在1988年见顶，较东京圈早2年、较日本整体早3年。在见顶的前五年，东京都区部房价上涨2倍，高于东京都的1.8倍和东京圈1.2倍。见顶后，东京都及东京都区部房价持续下跌至2005年，之后2009-2013年下跌，2014年开始回升。2005-2020年，东京都、东京都区部房价分别累计上涨13.3%、27.5%，东京都非区部房价基本持平，东京圈房价累计下跌1.7。2016年，东京都、区部、非都区房价分别相当于其峰值的42.7%、46.7%、38.8%，与东京圈的40.7%非常接近。\n\n\n3   结论：过去51年，大都市圈房产跑赢印钞机，推动新房改\n1）从全球视角看，一国房地产市场取决于：经济增长、人口变化、货币供应、住房制度。其中，前两项是基本面因素；货币超发会导致国内本币房价大涨但不一定美元房价大涨，即在全球视角下不一定具备投资价值；住房制度是一国房地产市场的政策导向。\n2）房地产具有抗通胀属性，能部分分享经济增长红利，并且多数国家的大都市圈房产是能够跑赢印钞机的少数资产之一。1970-2021年Q1，23个经济体本币房价增幅均不同程度超过各自CPI涨幅，英国、新西兰中国香港、马来西亚在扣除CPI后实际房价年均增长仍能达3%以上，而日本、德国扣除CPI后实际房价增长接近于0。与本币名义GDP增长相比，1970-2021年Q1，23个经济体中只有新西兰等少数经济体房价跑赢，这意味着多数经济体房价只能部分分享经济增长红利。\n长期看，全球货币超发是普遍现象，广义货币增速多高于名义GDP增长，能够跑赢印钞机的资产不多，在多数国家大都市圈的房地产是其中之一。从国际看，1987-2020年英国房价年均增长5.6%，虽高于4.5%的名义GDP年均增速，但仍然低于7.1%的广义货币年均增速；1960-2020年美国房价年均增长4.5%，而名义GDP和M2年均增速分别为6.3%、7.1%。从大都市圈看，在美国，1975-2020年，纽约-泽西-白原分区房价年均增长5.8%，低于同期M2的6.8%，与GDP的5.8%相同。在中国，过去四十年广义货币供应量M2年均增速15%，1998年以来全国新建住房销售均价年均复合增速达7.72%，低于同期M2增速近8个百分点，而一线城市房价基本与M2增速持平。\n3）从全球资产配置角度看，一些经济增长潜力大的新兴经济体、特别是其核心城市房地产有较大投资潜力。一般而言，新兴经济体货币超发比较严重，房价涨幅也较大，但从全球资产配置角度看，投资者关注的是美元房价涨幅，即剔除了货币相对超发导致的汇率变化，而美元房价涨幅则主要与美元名义GDP增长相关，可分解经济增长、人口变化、住房制度等因素。一些经济增长潜力大的新兴经济体未来有可能出现类似中国房地产市场过去的“黄金时代”，不过需要注意政治、法律等相关风险。\n4）构建居住导向的中国新住房制度。中国房地产二十年发展表明，短期调控无法解决长期供需不平衡的根本矛盾，深化住房制度改革才是实现房地产市场平稳健康发展的根本。\n一是改革“人地挂钩”，优化土地供应。目前推行的“人地挂钩”为农业转移人口落户数量与建设用地供应量挂钩，并不能解决热点城市人口流入与住房供应紧张之间的矛盾，未来应推行新增常住人口与土地供应挂钩、跨省耕地占补平衡与城乡用地增减挂钩，如东北和西部地区售卖用地指标，可以有效解决目前东北、西部用地指标大量浪费的问题。严格执行“库存去化周期与供地挂钩”原则，优化当前土地供应模式。\n二是保持货币政策和房地产金融政策长期稳定。实行长期稳定的住房信贷金融政策，稳定购房者预期，支持刚需和改善型购房需求，同时抑制投机性需求。支持房企合理融资需求，规范融资用途，防止过度融资。\n三是转变住房供应结构，丰富供应主体。当前中国住房供给体系重销售轻租赁，多元主体供给型的住房体系尚未建立。未来供应主体将从开发商为主转变为政府、开发商、租赁中介公司、长租公司等多方供给；供给形式也将由商品房为主转向商品房、租赁房、共有产权房等多品类。不过，住房供应结构的探索与政策出台须因地制宜，人口净流出城市尤需警惕盲目跟风。\n四是稳步推动房产税试点。随着大开发时代结束，存量房时代下土地出让金减少、交易环节税收减少，推出房产税是大势所趋。从国际经验看，房产税通常被成熟市场经济体作为地方财政收入的重要和稳定来源。房产税改革的总原则是“立法先行、充分授权、分步推进”。“立法先行”是先立法再开征；“充分授权”是授权各地方因地制宜试点、不一刀切，本身房产税按照国际经验就是地方主体税；“分布推进”是积极稳妥推进，要力争方案成熟并做好社会预期引导。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"515060":0.9,"DRN":0.9,"ARL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2520,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":897883254,"gmtCreate":1628905612478,"gmtModify":1676529889782,"author":{"id":"4089193130492580","authorId":"4089193130492580","name":"Kyochan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4fc81b464ccbd183246bb9a55efdc950","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4089193130492580","authorIdStr":"4089193130492580"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"fly","listText":"fly","text":"fly","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/897883254","repostId":"1116529888","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1116529888","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1628867931,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1116529888?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-08-13 23:18","market":"other","language":"zh","title":"[Change] The decline of popular Chinese concept stocks expanded, and Keike fell more than 9%","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1116529888","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"8月13日，热门中概股跌幅扩大，叮咚买菜跌超10%，贝壳跌超9%，满帮跌超8%，哔哩哔哩跌超6%，滴滴、小牛电动、微博跌超5%，理想汽车、拼多多、百度跌超4%，蔚来、小鹏汽车、好未来跌超3%，新东方、","content":"<p>On August 13, the decline of popular Chinese concept stocks expanded.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DDL\">ding-dong</a>Shopping fell by more than 10%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BEKE\">Shells</a>Fell more than 9%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/YMM\">Manbang</a>Fell more than 8%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">Bilibili</a>Fell more than 6%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DIDI\">Didi</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIU\">Mavericks Electric</a>, Weibo fell more than 5%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">Li Auto</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">Pinduoduo</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">Baidu</a>Fell more than 4%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">Nio</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">XPeng vehicles</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TAL\">TAL</a>Fell more than 3%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EDU\">New Oriental</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba</a>Fell more than 2%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">JD.com</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NTES\">NetEase</a>Fell more than 1%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/241b92b785e9a0d584dd9f95cecac21b\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>[Change] The decline of popular Chinese concept stocks expanded, and Keike fell more than 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23:18</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>On August 13, the decline of popular Chinese concept stocks expanded.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DDL\">ding-dong</a>Shopping fell by more than 10%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BEKE\">Shells</a>Fell more than 9%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/YMM\">Manbang</a>Fell more than 8%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">Bilibili</a>Fell more than 6%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DIDI\">Didi</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIU\">Mavericks Electric</a>, Weibo fell more than 5%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">Li Auto</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">Pinduoduo</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">Baidu</a>Fell more than 4%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">Nio</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">XPeng vehicles</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TAL\">TAL</a>Fell more than 3%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EDU\">New Oriental</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba</a>Fell more than 2%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">JD.com</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NTES\">NetEase</a>Fell more than 1%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/241b92b785e9a0d584dd9f95cecac21b\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/03f3d0c168656a3e6eb4245c3c31ff40","relate_stocks":{"QNETCN":"纳斯达克中美互联网老虎指数","BEKE":"贝壳","TTTN":"老虎中美互联网巨头ETF"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1116529888","content_text":"8月13日，热门中概股跌幅扩大，叮咚买菜跌超10%，贝壳跌超9%，满帮跌超8%，哔哩哔哩跌超6%，滴滴、小牛电动、微博跌超5%，理想汽车、拼多多、百度跌超4%，蔚来、小鹏汽车、好未来跌超3%，新东方、阿里巴巴跌超2%，京东、网易跌超1%。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BEKE":0.9,"TTTN":0.9,"QNETCN":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":790,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":9007434379,"gmtCreate":1642982565519,"gmtModify":1676533761379,"author":{"id":"4089193130492580","authorId":"4089193130492580","name":"Kyochan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4fc81b464ccbd183246bb9a55efdc950","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4089193130492580","idStr":"4089193130492580"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"🤟🤟🚀","listText":"🤟🤟🚀","text":"🤟🤟🚀","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9007434379","repostId":"1171166423","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2603,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9006830083,"gmtCreate":1641685297165,"gmtModify":1676533638852,"author":{"id":"4089193130492580","authorId":"4089193130492580","name":"Kyochan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4fc81b464ccbd183246bb9a55efdc950","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4089193130492580","idStr":"4089193130492580"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"🚀🚀🚀🤟","listText":"🚀🚀🚀🤟","text":"🚀🚀🚀🤟","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9006830083","repostId":"2201217750","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2201217750","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1641601341,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2201217750?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-01-08 08:22","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Airbus Allegedly Exceeded 2021 Delivery Targets, Analysts Bullish This Year","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2201217750","media":"新浪财经","summary":"　　此前，有报道称，空客超额完成了其2021年全年交付600架飞机的目标，继续领先于主要竞争对手波音公司。　　空客将在下周一市场收盘后公布2021年订单和交付的情况，波音则将在下周二披露相关数据。由于空客有信心超额完成2021年的交付目标，该公司已将重点转向2022年的窄体客机生产率和交付量。　　分析师表示，尽管空客尚未给出2022年的交付展望，但预计将大大高于2021年。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Financial Associated Press (Shanghai, editor Xia Junxiong) News, according to media reports citing industry sources, Airbus delivered at least 605 aircraft in 2021, and this number may rise to 611 after the results of the final audit are released.</p><p>Earlier, it was reported that Airbus exceeded its full-year 2021 target of 600 aircraft deliveries, continuing to lead key rivals<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BA\">boeing</a>Inc.</p><p>During COVID-19 pandemic, aircraft deliveries are key to generating cash. It is reported that in times of crisis, through some workarounds, some airlines were allowed to delay the inclusion of new aircraft in the asset load table, thus partially securing deliveries, but such agreements must be reviewed by auditors.</p><p>Airbus will announce orders and deliveries in 2021 after the market closes next Monday, while Boeing will disclose relevant data next Tuesday.</p><p>Right now, the aviation industry is trying to readjust the supply chain weakened by the epidemic. As Airbus is confident of exceeding its 2021 delivery targets, the company has shifted its focus to narrow-body airliner production rates and deliveries in 2022.</p><p>Some aircraft originally scheduled to be delivered in 2022 are expected to be delayed by several months as some parts are under pressure from logistics bottlenecks and chip shortages, industry insiders said. Sources say deliveries of some aircraft are even at risk of being delayed until 2023.</p><p>Although Airbus has yet to give a delivery outlook for 2022, it is expected to be significantly higher than 2021, analysts said.</p><p>Last October, Airbus raised its production target for its A320 family of narrow-body aircraft to 65 per month until summer 2023. It is worth mentioning that Airbus once hoped to increase monthly production to 75 aircraft, but due to the conflict with France<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/0IU8.UK\">Safran</a>Engine manufacturers such as the group gave up because of their differences.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"sina_us","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Airbus Allegedly Exceeded 2021 Delivery Targets, Analysts Bullish This Year</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAirbus Allegedly Exceeded 2021 Delivery Targets, Analysts Bullish This Year\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">新浪财经</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-01-08 08:22</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Financial Associated Press (Shanghai, editor Xia Junxiong) News, according to media reports citing industry sources, Airbus delivered at least 605 aircraft in 2021, and this number may rise to 611 after the results of the final audit are released.</p><p>Earlier, it was reported that Airbus exceeded its full-year 2021 target of 600 aircraft deliveries, continuing to lead key rivals<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BA\">boeing</a>Inc.</p><p>During COVID-19 pandemic, aircraft deliveries are key to generating cash. It is reported that in times of crisis, through some workarounds, some airlines were allowed to delay the inclusion of new aircraft in the asset load table, thus partially securing deliveries, but such agreements must be reviewed by auditors.</p><p>Airbus will announce orders and deliveries in 2021 after the market closes next Monday, while Boeing will disclose relevant data next Tuesday.</p><p>Right now, the aviation industry is trying to readjust the supply chain weakened by the epidemic. As Airbus is confident of exceeding its 2021 delivery targets, the company has shifted its focus to narrow-body airliner production rates and deliveries in 2022.</p><p>Some aircraft originally scheduled to be delivered in 2022 are expected to be delayed by several months as some parts are under pressure from logistics bottlenecks and chip shortages, industry insiders said. Sources say deliveries of some aircraft are even at risk of being delayed until 2023.</p><p>Although Airbus has yet to give a delivery outlook for 2022, it is expected to be significantly higher than 2021, analysts said.</p><p>Last October, Airbus raised its production target for its A320 family of narrow-body aircraft to 65 per month until summer 2023. It is worth mentioning that Airbus once hoped to increase monthly production to 75 aircraft, but due to the conflict with France<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/0IU8.UK\">Safran</a>Engine manufacturers such as the group gave up because of their differences.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2022-01-08/doc-ikyakumx8965029.shtml\">新浪财经</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/80e4ab3e53452f4e5554d2f59e6f6d9b","relate_stocks":{"EADSY":"空中客车集团"},"source_url":"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2022-01-08/doc-ikyakumx8965029.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2201217750","content_text":"财联社（上海，编辑 夏军雄）讯，据媒体援引业内人士消息报道，空中客车公司在2021年交付了至少605架飞机，而在最终审计的结果出炉后，这一数字可能会升至611架。此前，有报道称，空客超额完成了其2021年全年交付600架飞机的目标，继续领先于主要竞争对手波音公司。在新冠疫情期间，飞机交付量是产生现金的关键。据悉，在危机时期，通过一些变通办法，一些航空公司被允许推迟将新飞机计入资产负载表，从而部分确保了交付，但此类协议必须经过审计机构的审核。空客将在下周一市场收盘后公布2021年订单和交付的情况，波音则将在下周二披露相关数据。眼下，航空业正试图重新调整被疫情削弱的供应链。由于空客有信心超额完成2021年的交付目标，该公司已将重点转向2022年的窄体客机生产率和交付量。业内人士称，由于部分零部件受到物流瓶颈和芯片短缺的压力，一些原定于2022年交付的飞机预计要推迟几个月。有消息称，一些飞机的交付时间甚至有推迟到2023年的风险。分析师表示，尽管空客尚未给出2022年的交付展望，但预计将大大高于2021年。去年10月，空客将其A320 系列窄体机生产目标上调至2023年夏季之前每月65架。值得一提的是，空客一度希望将月产量提高至75架，但因与法国赛峰集团等发动机制造商存在分歧而作罢。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"EADSY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3778,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9073707600,"gmtCreate":1657415701800,"gmtModify":1676536003862,"author":{"id":"4089193130492580","authorId":"4089193130492580","name":"Kyochan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4fc81b464ccbd183246bb9a55efdc950","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4089193130492580","idStr":"4089193130492580"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/5LE.SI\">$实大控股(5LE.SI)$</a>💪💪😅","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/5LE.SI\">$实大控股(5LE.SI)$</a>💪💪😅","text":"$实大控股(5LE.SI)$💪💪😅","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/69058e6b5c8cdcc080cc6f875dcf79e7","width":"1242","height":"2505"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9073707600","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2493,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":830221539,"gmtCreate":1629076748621,"gmtModify":1676529921651,"author":{"id":"4089193130492580","authorId":"4089193130492580","name":"Kyochan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4fc81b464ccbd183246bb9a55efdc950","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4089193130492580","idStr":"4089193130492580"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"gogo","listText":"gogo","text":"gogo","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/830221539","repostId":"2159212005","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2159212005","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1629073072,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2159212005?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-08-16 08:17","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Market pressure is mounting, all eyes are on the annual meeting of global central banks in Jackson Hole","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2159212005","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"美国银行分析指出，随着杰克逊霍尔年会的到来，利率风险（duration risk）处于历史最高水平。实际无风险利率每发生1个基点的变化，就会转化为标普500指数20-30个基点的波动。","content":"<p>As the annual meeting of global central banks in Jackson Hole approaches, investors wait for the signal that the Federal Reserve may give about Taper at that time, and the market falls into a kind of quiet before the storm.</p><p>The annual global central bank annual meeting will be held in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, USA from August 26th to 28th, local time. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell previously confirmed that he would deliver a speech at the annual meeting, but did not disclose the theme of the speech. However, according to past experience, the Federal Reserve often throws \"blockbusters\" at the Jackson Hole annual meeting.</p><p>At present, the market generally expects that the Federal Reserve will provide clues on the timing and method of reducing bond purchases at this annual meeting. However, the repeated epidemic has added variables.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>Strategists such as Mark Cabana said in a research note called \"Jackson Hold\" that U.S. Treasury Bond generally tends to rise before the annual meeting, but there is little change in the two weeks after the meeting.</p><p>Cabana and others wrote: \"We will not be surprised if similar price changes occur this year. Powell is expected to give a speech on the progress of the U.S. economy since the new crown epidemic and acknowledge that the FOMC will continue to discuss tapering quantitative easing, but will not send a signal.\"</p><p><h2>The market is ready</h2>However, U.S. debt has entered a state of preparation, and the trend has been almost flat in the past week.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a>Customer data showed that the number of customers neutral to U.S. Treasury Bond hit the highest level since February.</p><p>On August 6, after the release of stronger-than-expected July non-farm payrolls data, the 10-year U.S. Treasury Bond yield once rebounded from a six-month low, but the current rebound trend has stopped, and the yield has dropped to around 1.3%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/262bd64bc95b5fd890b67580c26ea25b\" tg-width=\"906\" tg-height=\"535\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>Unlike the calm bond market, U.S. stocks are gaining momentum, and European stocks have even risen for ten consecutive years, setting a record for the longest winning streak since 1999. But the more it rises, the higher the risk of aggregation.</p><p>Savita Subramanian, chief equity strategist at Bank of America, warned in a note that interest rate risk is at an all-time high as the Jackson Hole annual meeting approaches. Interest rate risk refers to the adverse effects caused by changes in interest rates.</p><p>Of the 20 market metrics the bank tracks, most are already statistically too expensive, Subramanian said. Amid inflation and a slowing economy, earnings growth is expected to slow sharply in the second half of the year, and record interest rate risk means that if interest rates only rise slightly, the decline of stocks will be painful.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/778e13cf47565508584080338c46b772\" tg-width=\"896\" tg-height=\"508\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>Subramanian noted that a growing number of Fed officials are urging a tapering of bond purchases, with market implied volatility rising after the strong jobs report.</p><p>In this case, the bank's fair value stress test shows that every 1 basis point change in the real risk-free rate translates into a 20-30 basis point move in the S&P 500.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/176effeb1dc70ff8093a1b7267a7ef15\" tg-width=\"837\" tg-height=\"437\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>Therefore, unlike other banks who rushed to raise their S&P expectations when the market was higher, Bank of America remained the only bear, with its 10-year yield forecast of 1.9% by year-end, up about 55 basis points from now, which would cause the S&P 500 to fall about 15%.</p>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Market pressure is mounting, all eyes are on the annual meeting of global central banks in Jackson Hole</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMarket pressure is mounting, all eyes are on the annual meeting of global central banks in Jackson Hole\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-16 08:17</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>As the annual meeting of global central banks in Jackson Hole approaches, investors wait for the signal that the Federal Reserve may give about Taper at that time, and the market falls into a kind of quiet before the storm.</p><p>The annual global central bank annual meeting will be held in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, USA from August 26th to 28th, local time. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell previously confirmed that he would deliver a speech at the annual meeting, but did not disclose the theme of the speech. However, according to past experience, the Federal Reserve often throws \"blockbusters\" at the Jackson Hole annual meeting.</p><p>At present, the market generally expects that the Federal Reserve will provide clues on the timing and method of reducing bond purchases at this annual meeting. However, the repeated epidemic has added variables.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>Strategists such as Mark Cabana said in a research note called \"Jackson Hold\" that U.S. Treasury Bond generally tends to rise before the annual meeting, but there is little change in the two weeks after the meeting.</p><p>Cabana and others wrote: \"We will not be surprised if similar price changes occur this year. Powell is expected to give a speech on the progress of the U.S. economy since the new crown epidemic and acknowledge that the FOMC will continue to discuss tapering quantitative easing, but will not send a signal.\"</p><p><h2>The market is ready</h2>However, U.S. debt has entered a state of preparation, and the trend has been almost flat in the past week.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a>Customer data showed that the number of customers neutral to U.S. Treasury Bond hit the highest level since February.</p><p>On August 6, after the release of stronger-than-expected July non-farm payrolls data, the 10-year U.S. Treasury Bond yield once rebounded from a six-month low, but the current rebound trend has stopped, and the yield has dropped to around 1.3%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/262bd64bc95b5fd890b67580c26ea25b\" tg-width=\"906\" tg-height=\"535\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>Unlike the calm bond market, U.S. stocks are gaining momentum, and European stocks have even risen for ten consecutive years, setting a record for the longest winning streak since 1999. But the more it rises, the higher the risk of aggregation.</p><p>Savita Subramanian, chief equity strategist at Bank of America, warned in a note that interest rate risk is at an all-time high as the Jackson Hole annual meeting approaches. Interest rate risk refers to the adverse effects caused by changes in interest rates.</p><p>Of the 20 market metrics the bank tracks, most are already statistically too expensive, Subramanian said. Amid inflation and a slowing economy, earnings growth is expected to slow sharply in the second half of the year, and record interest rate risk means that if interest rates only rise slightly, the decline of stocks will be painful.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/778e13cf47565508584080338c46b772\" tg-width=\"896\" tg-height=\"508\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>Subramanian noted that a growing number of Fed officials are urging a tapering of bond purchases, with market implied volatility rising after the strong jobs report.</p><p>In this case, the bank's fair value stress test shows that every 1 basis point change in the real risk-free rate translates into a 20-30 basis point move in the S&P 500.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/176effeb1dc70ff8093a1b7267a7ef15\" tg-width=\"837\" tg-height=\"437\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>Therefore, unlike other banks who rushed to raise their S&P expectations when the market was higher, Bank of America remained the only bear, with its 10-year yield forecast of 1.9% by year-end, up about 55 basis points from now, which would cause the S&P 500 to fall about 15%.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3637968\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fd680cd945fd32917c8ece66ec685e5f","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空","GOVT":"iShares安硕核心美国国债ETF","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","TLT":"20+年以上美国国债ETF-iShares","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares","OEX":"标普100","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","IEF":"债券指数ETF-iShares Barclays 7-10年","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares","SPY":"标普500ETF","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","IEI":"iShares Barclays 3-7 Year Trea","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares","SHY":"债券指数ETF-iShares Barclays 1-3年国债","BAC":"美国银行","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares","DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3637968","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2159212005","content_text":"随着杰克逊霍尔（Jackson Hole）全球央行年会的临近，投资者静待届时美联储可能给出的关于Taper的信号，市场陷入一种暴风雨来临前的宁静。\n一年一度的全球央行年会将于当地时间8月26日至28日在美国怀俄明州杰克逊霍尔召开。美联储主席鲍威尔此前确认将在年会上发表讲话，但并未透露讲话的主题。不过按以往经验看，美联储常常会在杰克逊霍尔年会上，扔出“重磅炸弹”。\n目前市场普遍预期，美联储会在此次年会上，为缩减债券购买的时点和方式提供线索。不过疫情的反复增添了变数。\n美国银行Mark Cabana等策略师在一份名为\" Jackson Hold \"的研究报告中称，美国国债一般倾向于在年会前上涨，但会后两周内几乎没有变化。\nCabana等写道：“今年如果出现类似的价格变动不会让我们感到意外。预计鲍威尔将发表演讲，阐述新冠疫情以来美国经济的进展，并承认FOMC将继续讨论缩减量化宽松，但不会发出信号。”\n市场严阵以待\n不过美债已经进入了严阵以待，过去一周走势几乎持平。摩根大通的客户数据显示，对美国国债持中性立场的客户数量创2月份以来最高水平。\n8月6日，在强于预期的7月份非农就业数据公布后，10年期美国国债收益率一度从6个月低点反弹，但目前反弹趋势已经停止，收益率降至1.3%左右。\n\n与债市的平静不同，美股势头强劲，欧股甚至连续十年上涨，创1999年以来最长连涨记录。但越是上涨，聚集的风险越高。\n美国银行首席股票策略师Savita Subramanian在一份报告中警告称，随着杰克逊霍尔年会的到来，利率风险（duration risk）处于历史最高水平。利率风险是指因为利率变动而产生的不利影响。\nSubramanian表示，在该行追踪的20个市场指标中，从统计学上来看，大多数都已经太昂贵了。在通胀和经济放缓影响下，预计下半年盈利增长大幅放缓，创纪录的利率风险意味着，如果利率仅仅是小幅上升，股市的下跌都会是令人痛苦的。\n\nSubramanian指出，越来越多的美联储官员正在敦促缩减购债规模，在强劲的就业报告公布后，市场隐含波动率上升了。\n在这种情况下，该行的公允价值压力测试表明，实际无风险利率每发生1个基点的变化，就会转化为标普500指数20-30个基点的波动。\n\n因此，与其他银行在市场走高时匆忙上调标普预期不同，美国银行仍然是唯一的看跌者，它对10年期收益率的预测是年底前达到1.9%，较目前上涨约55个基点，这将导致标普500指数下跌约15%。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.9,"513500":0.9,"MNQmain":0.9,"SDS":0.9,"BAC":0.9,"IVV":0.9,"SPY":0.9,"UPRO":0.9,"SPXU":0.9,"SQQQ":0.9,"SDOW":0.9,"ZFmain":0.9,"OEX":0.9,"QID":0.9,"QQQ":0.9,"SHY":0.9,"TQQQ":0.9,"IEF":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"SH":0.9,"QLD":0.9,"TNmain":0.9,"TLT":0.9,"UDOW":0.9,"ZBmain":0.9,"ZTmain":0.9,"ESmain":0.9,"PSQ":0.9,"DXD":0.9,"SSO":0.9,"OEF":0.9,"DJX":0.9,"GOVT":0.9,"IEI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"DOG":0.9,"NQmain":0.9,"UBmain":0.9,"DDM":0.9,"ZNmain":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2490,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9064016736,"gmtCreate":1652246411025,"gmtModify":1676535061513,"author":{"id":"4089193130492580","authorId":"4089193130492580","name":"Kyochan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4fc81b464ccbd183246bb9a55efdc950","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4089193130492580","idStr":"4089193130492580"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"🚀🚀🚀","listText":"🚀🚀🚀","text":"🚀🚀🚀","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9064016736","repostId":"612157298","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":612157298,"gmtCreate":1652245632314,"gmtModify":1676533088961,"author":{"id":"3511237393001450","authorId":"3511237393001450","name":"资本邦","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9b1331a33968359a10e08ae7160541b0","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3511237393001450","idStr":"3511237393001450"},"themes":[],"title":"恆生醫療ETF漲幅5.97%， 位居恆生系列產品第一","htmlText":"恆生醫療ETF(513060)再度奪冠，午盤收漲5.75%，位居恆生系列產品第一，成交額破5億，創半日新高，換手率超22%，交投活躍。截至發稿，成份股再鼎醫藥-SB漲17.01%，復星醫藥漲13.5%，科濟藥業-B漲超13%，藥明生物、雲頂新耀-B漲超10%，康方生物-B、時代天使、諾輝健康、上海醫藥漲超9%。","listText":"恆生醫療ETF(513060)再度奪冠，午盤收漲5.75%，位居恆生系列產品第一，成交額破5億，創半日新高，換手率超22%，交投活躍。截至發稿，成份股再鼎醫藥-SB漲17.01%，復星醫藥漲13.5%，科濟藥業-B漲超13%，藥明生物、雲頂新耀-B漲超10%，康方生物-B、時代天使、諾輝健康、上海醫藥漲超9%。","text":"恆生醫療ETF(513060)再度奪冠，午盤收漲5.75%，位居恆生系列產品第一，成交額破5億，創半日新高，換手率超22%，交投活躍。截至發稿，成份股再鼎醫藥-SB漲17.01%，復星醫藥漲13.5%，科濟藥業-B漲超13%，藥明生物、雲頂新耀-B漲超10%，康方生物-B、時代天使、諾輝健康、上海醫藥漲超9%。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/612157298","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2085,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9088066169,"gmtCreate":1650291432659,"gmtModify":1676534688131,"author":{"id":"4089193130492580","authorId":"4089193130492580","name":"Kyochan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4fc81b464ccbd183246bb9a55efdc950","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4089193130492580","idStr":"4089193130492580"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"twitter🚀🚀🚀","listText":"twitter🚀🚀🚀","text":"twitter🚀🚀🚀","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9088066169","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2103,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":838405473,"gmtCreate":1629422455092,"gmtModify":1676530034644,"author":{"id":"4089193130492580","authorId":"4089193130492580","name":"Kyochan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4fc81b464ccbd183246bb9a55efdc950","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4089193130492580","idStr":"4089193130492580"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"??","listText":"??","text":"??","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/838405473","repostId":"2160799134","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2160799134","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1629456490,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2160799134?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-08-20 18:48","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Is the running bilibili going to fall into the mortal world?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2160799134","media":"海豚投研","summary":"北京时间8月19日港股盘后，哔哩哔哩发布了2021年二季度财报。\n本季B站实现净营收45亿元人民币，同比增长72%，优于市场一致预期的43亿元(彭博)，一如既往的超前期指引(42.5-43.5亿元)。","content":"<p>After the Hong Kong stock market closed on August 19, Beijing time,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">Bilibili</a>Released the financial report for the second quarter of 2021.</p><p>This quarter, Station B achieved net revenue of 4.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 72%, which was better than the market consensus expectation of 4.3 billion yuan (Bloomberg), and as always exceeded the previous guidance (4.25-4.35 billion yuan).</p><p>Looking forward to the third quarter, the management gave a revenue guidance of 5.1 billion to 5.2 billion yuan, with an implied growth rate of around 60%, which is not particularly optimistic. The market's current consensus forecast for third-quarter revenue of 5.17 billion falls within the guidance range. In the past, the lower limit of the guidance will exceed market expectations. Obviously, this time Station B's guidance for the third quarter is slightly conservative.</p><p>The adjusted net loss in the second quarter was 857 million yuan, better than market expectations of 1.084 billion yuan. However, if we look at the operating loss of the main business, the loss of 1.52 billion corresponds to a loss rate of 34%, while the market consensus expects it to be 28% (the expectations of some leading banks have been adjusted, which is similar to the actual loss rate), breaking down the data in detail, the main expected difference is in operating expenses. (Specific reasons are analyzed below)</p><p>In addition, in terms of other key operating indicators, a quick overview of the difference between performance in the second quarter and market expectations:<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d433a44edd005775f09cd4c0c615873c\" tg-width=\"618\" tg-height=\"331\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Data source: Station B financial report, compiled by Dolphin Investment Research</p><p>Let's talk about the conclusion first:</p><p>(1) On the whole, although the revenue and user data of Station B in the second quarter obviously beat the company's guidance and market expectations.</p><p>However, at the end of July, the company gave some forward-looking guidance with securities firms on the specific performance of the second quarter (most of the market thought that the forward-looking was not positive, which also triggered a round of stock price decline), and then the market's expectations have been adjusted according to this forward-looking. It has been some time.</p><p>(2) However, judging from the final delivery results, the performance of advertising revenue is obviously quite excellent, doubling year-on-year.</p><p>The game collapsed badly. Although the popular new games were released as scheduled, the overall turnover did not increase but decreased. Generally speaking, self-developed games are still somewhat clear in Bilibili's mind, and the pace of foreign investment in game studios has not stopped in the second quarter.</p><p>(3) The growth of the user market is OK, but the old problem still shows no signs of improvement: DAU of daily active users can't keep up with the growth rate of MAU, which can be said to reflect the decline of overall user stickiness. In the third quarter, we faced multiple regulatory pressures (summer clear action, protection of minors, live broadcast supervision, etc.), and it is expected that the growth of users may not be as good as the previous summer vacation peak season.</p><p>But Mr. Dolphin believes that in the long run, the value of B is by no means more than that. Although it has the original intention of not doing patch advertisements, the current Huahuo platform belongs to the nature of private domain advertising, and the share given to the Up owner accounts for the absolute majority, which in disguise eats a lot of potential commercial value that originally belonged to Station B. In addition, the current user activity (DAU) of Station B and the effect of public domain advertising cannot be simply benchmarked with other platforms such as short videos.</p><p>As the old saying goes, the most valuable thing of station B is that the Z-era users who continue to grow Up and become the main force of social consumption on the platform include Up owners. This part of users has a very high degree of recognition of the value of Bilibili. Although the high-frequency activity is not as good as other platforms (relying on algorithms to stick to users), users will regard Bilibili as a community rather than a tool platform for receiving information.</p><p>In addition, the proportion of Up owners among users of station B has been increasing, which reflects that in addition to a long-term healthy community ecology, more and more UGC content and participants make reward value-added services such as live broadcasts of station B better than traditional live broadcasts. Show live broadcasts have more advantages.</p><p>From the perspective of the stock price trend, the current Bilibili has fallen below a reasonable valuation range. Mr. Dolphin believes that the current stock price implies too pessimistic growth expectations for the future of Bilibili. In the short term, stock price fluctuations are more affected by the regulatory environment, such as the supervision of cultural content in special years, the protection of minors, and the summer clearance movement.</p><p>In addition, the pressure of video copyright supervision has also had a certain impact on Station B, especially in terms of user growth and user stickiness. It is expected that the performance of the summer peak season in the third quarter of this year will be weaker than in previous years. Combined with the slightly conservative guidance of the company's management, it may still fluctuate in the short term. Like other pan-entertainment platforms, they can actively intervene after the regulatory environment eases in 1-2 quarters.</p><p>Detailed interpretation of this financial report data</p><p>1. Overall performance: Beat guidance and expectations, third quarter guidance is average</p><p>(1) Income side</p><p>In the second quarter, Station B achieved net revenue of 4.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 72%, which was better than the market consensus expectation of 4.3 billion yuan (Bloomberg), the upper limit of beat management guidance.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fafffeeda8d6558a844d6a1b948b3d73\" tg-width=\"613\" tg-height=\"311\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Data source: Bilibili financial report, compiled by Dolphin Investment Research</p><p>Among different businesses, the growth rate of advertising revenue continues to be bright. Although new games with high popularity have been released, they still perform poorly, with contributions falling rapidly year-on-year, and live broadcasts and value-added services accelerating.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1eeda3cb86c264fb48624bfdedb9a290\" tg-width=\"613\" tg-height=\"319\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Data source: Bilibili financial report, compiled by Dolphin Investment Research</p><p>(2) Profit side</p><p>In the second quarter, the company's gross profit margin fell by 2ppt month-on-month, mainly due to the increase in new game share, content investment (LPL global finals, e-sports regular season live broadcast rights), and the increase in live broadcast share (the share for anchors has been increased to 80%-90%). In addition, since the bulk of Huahuo's share is mainly given to Up owners, the advertising gross profit margin of Station B of about 50% will be significantly lower than the 70-80% level of other platforms.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f887b456f776639212b683aff9b924f5\" tg-width=\"615\" tg-height=\"297\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Data source: Bilibili financial report, compiled by Dolphin Investment Research</p><p>Operating loss (GAAP) was 1.521 billion yuan, exceeding market expectations of 1.188 billion yuan, mainly due to the increase in marketing expense ratio. In the second quarter, many new tours were released, and marketing and promotion expenditures were relatively large, an increase of 6ppt from the previous quarter. In addition, employee compensation and equity incentives still increased year-on-year this quarter.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/00700190b7ba758d9a73747e491e8e3d\" tg-width=\"619\" tg-height=\"317\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Data source: Bilibili financial report, compiled by Dolphin Investment Research</p><p>2. User scale: The off-season is not weak, but growth in the third quarter may be under pressure under more supervision</p><p>Compared with the previous quarter, the number of users in the second quarter increased by 13.8 million, reaching 237 million. Despite the high base last year, it still increased by 38%, which was higher than market expectations of 30%.</p><p>Considering Ruidi's previous long-term guidance of 400 million users in 2023, the growth rate is based on the 20% reduction rate in the previous year, and the growth rate of users for the whole year of this year will exceed 30%, otherwise it will not be able to break through 400 million by the end of 2023. target. (If the reduction rate is faster, the pressure on growth this year will also be greater.)</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dc35917db286aafaf7193beaf990f689\" tg-width=\"625\" tg-height=\"333\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Data source: Bilibili financial report, compiled by Dolphin Investment Research</p><p>Regarding user stickiness, the old problem still exists. Although there are seasonal reasons, user stickiness (DAU/MAU) hit a two-year low. The activity of the platform will affect the future realization value space, especially for advertisers, who prefer platforms with high DAU or higher user stickiness.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3a5dd2285fa12caf9aaf03b668066ab5\" tg-width=\"609\" tg-height=\"318\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Data source: Bilibili financial report, compiled by Dolphin Investment Research</p><p>However, considering that the length of the video itself will also have a certain impact on the activity of the platform, the longer the video, the relatively average the activity. From Questmobile's 30-day retention about different video apps. Basically follow the rule of short video > medium video > long video. The company previously proposed that it is still in the stage of expanding its volume and scale out of the circle, and the long-term guidance target for this indicator is 30%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ebbdf10234956d4d225ac1921ef87260\" tg-width=\"553\" tg-height=\"257\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>It is worth mentioning that in the second quarter, bilibili made two prominent function page revisions for user stickiness. It is expected that user stickiness will improve to some extent in the third quarter:</p><p>A. One is the vertical screen mode \"Story Mode\". Similar to short videos, you can directly slide up and down to switch videos. The main purpose is to increase user time.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b7c6b06f790f5a624b92688c945fc0b0\" tg-width=\"553\" tg-height=\"371\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>b. The other is a major revision of the function that was just launched in the summer vacation, highlighting the video creation function to guide more users to convert into Up masters.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cb424a1d22c31c3acb454618b7158bf9\" tg-width=\"636\" tg-height=\"654\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c287fb8a77a7fbab67aa803197b88623\" tg-width=\"612\" tg-height=\"314\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Data source: Bilibili financial report, compiled by Dolphin Investment Research</p><p>In terms of paying users, this quarter, the paying users of games, big members, and virtual items (such as coins, live gifts, etc.) were affected by seasonality. The overall number of paying users was 20.9 million, and the paying penetration rate was basically the same month-on-month, but the single-user payment level The downward trend is still accelerating.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cd0b917dd35f1253ab8521cd3e647405\" tg-width=\"613\" tg-height=\"312\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Data source: Bilibili financial report, compiled by Dolphin Investment Research</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e3fe17f130feaa73981a00fa6fc15c4e\" tg-width=\"590\" tg-height=\"300\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Data source: Bilibili financial report, compiled by Dolphin Investment Research</p><p>3. Advertising business: the prosperity continues unabated, and commercialization is advancing steadily</p><p>In the second quarter, the advertising revenue of Station B reached 1.05 billion yuan, a growth rate of 201%, greatly exceeding the expectations of the market and Dolphin (150%). With the economic recovery, advertising delivery picks up and the increasingly recognized brand influence of Station B, it will help continue to promote the prosperity of advertising in Station B.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9ca8a9f6b713d9dcc736ab2e96a05fa1\" tg-width=\"616\" tg-height=\"320\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Data source: Bilibili financial report, compiled by Dolphin Investment Research</p><p>At present, the share taken by Huahuo Platform Bilibili is only about 6%, and the revenue is recognized according to the total transaction volume, thus lowering the gross profit margin of the overall advertising.</p><p>Judging from the unique platform tonality of Station B, the future contribution of the Huahuo platform will also increase significantly. But for Station B, the contribution of the Huahuo platform to the overall performance may not be the core indicator of Station B in the short term, but more about regarding Huahuo as a major empowerment tool to maintain the main ecosystem of Up.</p><p>After all, on Station B, the interaction between Up owners and users is high, and there are even some emotional connections. It can be regarded as a private domain relationship. Therefore, the Up master is also the core asset of Station B.</p><p>Mr. Dolphin guessed that in addition to the need to supplement more content supply, considering the strategic significance of Huahuo, this is also the reason why Station b is constantly expanding the scale of Up main.</p><p>4. Games: Bilibili's self-developed mobile games are still difficult to play</p><p>In the second quarter, the game revenue of bilibili fell by 1% year-on-year. Compared with peers (the domestic mobile game market grew by 13% in the second quarter), it can be said that it is very ugly. Although the popular new games \"Kangong Riding the Crown Sword\", \"Mobile War Ji\" and \"Sword Art Online\", which the market has high hopes for, have been released in the second quarter, but the running water performance is very low except that \"Kangong\" will be able to watch.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b34589edda01d2b4762c3bbb863a908c\" tg-width=\"618\" tg-height=\"323\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Data source: Bilibili financial report, compiled by Dolphin Investment Research</p><p>Data from third parties Sensor<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TWR.AU\">Tower</a>From the point of view, the second quarter was mainly supported by the old tour of the agent and the flow of \"Kangong\", while the popularity of \"Mobile Warrior Ji\" and \"Sword Art Online\" declined too fast. (The black line is the flowing water of Yuan Shen, and the yellow line is the flowing water of Kangong)</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/76120ec81bbd370af36846abdce95ab9\" tg-width=\"618\" tg-height=\"318\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Perhaps because it is aware of its own abilities, Bilibili invested in 7 game companies in the first quarter, and increased its investment in game projects in the second quarter, adding 6 new investments.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/06dfa2b855bb47a37223f2cd28caa0a9\" tg-width=\"587\" tg-height=\"315\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Data source: IT Orange</p><p>5. Value-added services: Excellent performance, it is expected that video coin sharing and live broadcast popularity will bring</p><p>In the second quarter, the value-added business actually performed well, especially in the industry environment of the overall show, achieving revenue of 1.64 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 98%, slightly lower than the expectations of big banks.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/17b705a002cb773314ece3532fc873c7\" tg-width=\"625\" tg-height=\"324\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Data source: Bilibili financial report, compiled by Dolphin Investment Research</p><p>Station B's live broadcast and value-added services include big membership, video coin share, live broadcast reward share, etc. From the perspective of the scale of paying users, considering the poor performance of mobile games in the second quarter, and the new regulatory policy faced by Riman in April (first review and then broadcast), which is expected to have an impact on the income of big members. Therefore, excluding these two parts of income, Dolphin Jun speculates that the rapid growth of new paying users, overall live broadcast growth and value-added services should be mainly brought about by the increase in coin share and the popularity of live broadcast.</p><p>This is different from the traditional show live broadcast. At present, the live broadcast of station B is still in the growth stage of high-speed penetration.</p><p>6. Other businesses such as e-commerce: although the proportion is small, the momentum is stronger</p><p>In the second quarter, e-commerce continued to grow at a high rate nearly doubling. However, considering that this piece of income (membership purchase) is mainly driven by the consumption of core animation users, the current proportion is still relatively small at 13%. However, as the two-dimensional group of users in the Z era continues to grow, the future prospects should not be underestimated. Therefore, Mr. Dolphin suggested that investors should pay moderate attention to this business.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/18a80db984627337ad7a5bca90facc7f\" tg-width=\"632\" tg-height=\"334\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Data source: Bilibili financial report, compiled by Dolphin Investment Research</p>","source":"lsy1607051923659","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Is the running bilibili going to fall into the mortal world?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIs the running bilibili going to fall into the mortal world?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">海豚投研</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-20 18:48</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>After the Hong Kong stock market closed on August 19, Beijing time,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">Bilibili</a>Released the financial report for the second quarter of 2021.</p><p>This quarter, Station B achieved net revenue of 4.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 72%, which was better than the market consensus expectation of 4.3 billion yuan (Bloomberg), and as always exceeded the previous guidance (4.25-4.35 billion yuan).</p><p>Looking forward to the third quarter, the management gave a revenue guidance of 5.1 billion to 5.2 billion yuan, with an implied growth rate of around 60%, which is not particularly optimistic. The market's current consensus forecast for third-quarter revenue of 5.17 billion falls within the guidance range. In the past, the lower limit of the guidance will exceed market expectations. Obviously, this time Station B's guidance for the third quarter is slightly conservative.</p><p>The adjusted net loss in the second quarter was 857 million yuan, better than market expectations of 1.084 billion yuan. However, if we look at the operating loss of the main business, the loss of 1.52 billion corresponds to a loss rate of 34%, while the market consensus expects it to be 28% (the expectations of some leading banks have been adjusted, which is similar to the actual loss rate), breaking down the data in detail, the main expected difference is in operating expenses. (Specific reasons are analyzed below)</p><p>In addition, in terms of other key operating indicators, a quick overview of the difference between performance in the second quarter and market expectations:<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d433a44edd005775f09cd4c0c615873c\" tg-width=\"618\" tg-height=\"331\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Data source: Station B financial report, compiled by Dolphin Investment Research</p><p>Let's talk about the conclusion first:</p><p>(1) On the whole, although the revenue and user data of Station B in the second quarter obviously beat the company's guidance and market expectations.</p><p>However, at the end of July, the company gave some forward-looking guidance with securities firms on the specific performance of the second quarter (most of the market thought that the forward-looking was not positive, which also triggered a round of stock price decline), and then the market's expectations have been adjusted according to this forward-looking. It has been some time.</p><p>(2) However, judging from the final delivery results, the performance of advertising revenue is obviously quite excellent, doubling year-on-year.</p><p>The game collapsed badly. Although the popular new games were released as scheduled, the overall turnover did not increase but decreased. Generally speaking, self-developed games are still somewhat clear in Bilibili's mind, and the pace of foreign investment in game studios has not stopped in the second quarter.</p><p>(3) The growth of the user market is OK, but the old problem still shows no signs of improvement: DAU of daily active users can't keep up with the growth rate of MAU, which can be said to reflect the decline of overall user stickiness. In the third quarter, we faced multiple regulatory pressures (summer clear action, protection of minors, live broadcast supervision, etc.), and it is expected that the growth of users may not be as good as the previous summer vacation peak season.</p><p>But Mr. Dolphin believes that in the long run, the value of B is by no means more than that. Although it has the original intention of not doing patch advertisements, the current Huahuo platform belongs to the nature of private domain advertising, and the share given to the Up owner accounts for the absolute majority, which in disguise eats a lot of potential commercial value that originally belonged to Station B. In addition, the current user activity (DAU) of Station B and the effect of public domain advertising cannot be simply benchmarked with other platforms such as short videos.</p><p>As the old saying goes, the most valuable thing of station B is that the Z-era users who continue to grow Up and become the main force of social consumption on the platform include Up owners. This part of users has a very high degree of recognition of the value of Bilibili. Although the high-frequency activity is not as good as other platforms (relying on algorithms to stick to users), users will regard Bilibili as a community rather than a tool platform for receiving information.</p><p>In addition, the proportion of Up owners among users of station B has been increasing, which reflects that in addition to a long-term healthy community ecology, more and more UGC content and participants make reward value-added services such as live broadcasts of station B better than traditional live broadcasts. Show live broadcasts have more advantages.</p><p>From the perspective of the stock price trend, the current Bilibili has fallen below a reasonable valuation range. Mr. Dolphin believes that the current stock price implies too pessimistic growth expectations for the future of Bilibili. In the short term, stock price fluctuations are more affected by the regulatory environment, such as the supervision of cultural content in special years, the protection of minors, and the summer clearance movement.</p><p>In addition, the pressure of video copyright supervision has also had a certain impact on Station B, especially in terms of user growth and user stickiness. It is expected that the performance of the summer peak season in the third quarter of this year will be weaker than in previous years. Combined with the slightly conservative guidance of the company's management, it may still fluctuate in the short term. Like other pan-entertainment platforms, they can actively intervene after the regulatory environment eases in 1-2 quarters.</p><p>Detailed interpretation of this financial report data</p><p>1. Overall performance: Beat guidance and expectations, third quarter guidance is average</p><p>(1) Income side</p><p>In the second quarter, Station B achieved net revenue of 4.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 72%, which was better than the market consensus expectation of 4.3 billion yuan (Bloomberg), the upper limit of beat management guidance.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fafffeeda8d6558a844d6a1b948b3d73\" tg-width=\"613\" tg-height=\"311\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Data source: Bilibili financial report, compiled by Dolphin Investment Research</p><p>Among different businesses, the growth rate of advertising revenue continues to be bright. Although new games with high popularity have been released, they still perform poorly, with contributions falling rapidly year-on-year, and live broadcasts and value-added services accelerating.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1eeda3cb86c264fb48624bfdedb9a290\" tg-width=\"613\" tg-height=\"319\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Data source: Bilibili financial report, compiled by Dolphin Investment Research</p><p>(2) Profit side</p><p>In the second quarter, the company's gross profit margin fell by 2ppt month-on-month, mainly due to the increase in new game share, content investment (LPL global finals, e-sports regular season live broadcast rights), and the increase in live broadcast share (the share for anchors has been increased to 80%-90%). In addition, since the bulk of Huahuo's share is mainly given to Up owners, the advertising gross profit margin of Station B of about 50% will be significantly lower than the 70-80% level of other platforms.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f887b456f776639212b683aff9b924f5\" tg-width=\"615\" tg-height=\"297\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Data source: Bilibili financial report, compiled by Dolphin Investment Research</p><p>Operating loss (GAAP) was 1.521 billion yuan, exceeding market expectations of 1.188 billion yuan, mainly due to the increase in marketing expense ratio. In the second quarter, many new tours were released, and marketing and promotion expenditures were relatively large, an increase of 6ppt from the previous quarter. In addition, employee compensation and equity incentives still increased year-on-year this quarter.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/00700190b7ba758d9a73747e491e8e3d\" tg-width=\"619\" tg-height=\"317\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Data source: Bilibili financial report, compiled by Dolphin Investment Research</p><p>2. User scale: The off-season is not weak, but growth in the third quarter may be under pressure under more supervision</p><p>Compared with the previous quarter, the number of users in the second quarter increased by 13.8 million, reaching 237 million. Despite the high base last year, it still increased by 38%, which was higher than market expectations of 30%.</p><p>Considering Ruidi's previous long-term guidance of 400 million users in 2023, the growth rate is based on the 20% reduction rate in the previous year, and the growth rate of users for the whole year of this year will exceed 30%, otherwise it will not be able to break through 400 million by the end of 2023. target. (If the reduction rate is faster, the pressure on growth this year will also be greater.)</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dc35917db286aafaf7193beaf990f689\" tg-width=\"625\" tg-height=\"333\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Data source: Bilibili financial report, compiled by Dolphin Investment Research</p><p>Regarding user stickiness, the old problem still exists. Although there are seasonal reasons, user stickiness (DAU/MAU) hit a two-year low. The activity of the platform will affect the future realization value space, especially for advertisers, who prefer platforms with high DAU or higher user stickiness.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3a5dd2285fa12caf9aaf03b668066ab5\" tg-width=\"609\" tg-height=\"318\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Data source: Bilibili financial report, compiled by Dolphin Investment Research</p><p>However, considering that the length of the video itself will also have a certain impact on the activity of the platform, the longer the video, the relatively average the activity. From Questmobile's 30-day retention about different video apps. Basically follow the rule of short video > medium video > long video. The company previously proposed that it is still in the stage of expanding its volume and scale out of the circle, and the long-term guidance target for this indicator is 30%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ebbdf10234956d4d225ac1921ef87260\" tg-width=\"553\" tg-height=\"257\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>It is worth mentioning that in the second quarter, bilibili made two prominent function page revisions for user stickiness. It is expected that user stickiness will improve to some extent in the third quarter:</p><p>A. One is the vertical screen mode \"Story Mode\". Similar to short videos, you can directly slide up and down to switch videos. The main purpose is to increase user time.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b7c6b06f790f5a624b92688c945fc0b0\" tg-width=\"553\" tg-height=\"371\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>b. The other is a major revision of the function that was just launched in the summer vacation, highlighting the video creation function to guide more users to convert into Up masters.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cb424a1d22c31c3acb454618b7158bf9\" tg-width=\"636\" tg-height=\"654\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c287fb8a77a7fbab67aa803197b88623\" tg-width=\"612\" tg-height=\"314\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Data source: Bilibili financial report, compiled by Dolphin Investment Research</p><p>In terms of paying users, this quarter, the paying users of games, big members, and virtual items (such as coins, live gifts, etc.) were affected by seasonality. The overall number of paying users was 20.9 million, and the paying penetration rate was basically the same month-on-month, but the single-user payment level The downward trend is still accelerating.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cd0b917dd35f1253ab8521cd3e647405\" tg-width=\"613\" tg-height=\"312\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Data source: Bilibili financial report, compiled by Dolphin Investment Research</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e3fe17f130feaa73981a00fa6fc15c4e\" tg-width=\"590\" tg-height=\"300\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Data source: Bilibili financial report, compiled by Dolphin Investment Research</p><p>3. Advertising business: the prosperity continues unabated, and commercialization is advancing steadily</p><p>In the second quarter, the advertising revenue of Station B reached 1.05 billion yuan, a growth rate of 201%, greatly exceeding the expectations of the market and Dolphin (150%). With the economic recovery, advertising delivery picks up and the increasingly recognized brand influence of Station B, it will help continue to promote the prosperity of advertising in Station B.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9ca8a9f6b713d9dcc736ab2e96a05fa1\" tg-width=\"616\" tg-height=\"320\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Data source: Bilibili financial report, compiled by Dolphin Investment Research</p><p>At present, the share taken by Huahuo Platform Bilibili is only about 6%, and the revenue is recognized according to the total transaction volume, thus lowering the gross profit margin of the overall advertising.</p><p>Judging from the unique platform tonality of Station B, the future contribution of the Huahuo platform will also increase significantly. But for Station B, the contribution of the Huahuo platform to the overall performance may not be the core indicator of Station B in the short term, but more about regarding Huahuo as a major empowerment tool to maintain the main ecosystem of Up.</p><p>After all, on Station B, the interaction between Up owners and users is high, and there are even some emotional connections. It can be regarded as a private domain relationship. Therefore, the Up master is also the core asset of Station B.</p><p>Mr. Dolphin guessed that in addition to the need to supplement more content supply, considering the strategic significance of Huahuo, this is also the reason why Station b is constantly expanding the scale of Up main.</p><p>4. Games: Bilibili's self-developed mobile games are still difficult to play</p><p>In the second quarter, the game revenue of bilibili fell by 1% year-on-year. Compared with peers (the domestic mobile game market grew by 13% in the second quarter), it can be said that it is very ugly. Although the popular new games \"Kangong Riding the Crown Sword\", \"Mobile War Ji\" and \"Sword Art Online\", which the market has high hopes for, have been released in the second quarter, but the running water performance is very low except that \"Kangong\" will be able to watch.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b34589edda01d2b4762c3bbb863a908c\" tg-width=\"618\" tg-height=\"323\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Data source: Bilibili financial report, compiled by Dolphin Investment Research</p><p>Data from third parties Sensor<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TWR.AU\">Tower</a>From the point of view, the second quarter was mainly supported by the old tour of the agent and the flow of \"Kangong\", while the popularity of \"Mobile Warrior Ji\" and \"Sword Art Online\" declined too fast. (The black line is the flowing water of Yuan Shen, and the yellow line is the flowing water of Kangong)</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/76120ec81bbd370af36846abdce95ab9\" tg-width=\"618\" tg-height=\"318\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Perhaps because it is aware of its own abilities, Bilibili invested in 7 game companies in the first quarter, and increased its investment in game projects in the second quarter, adding 6 new investments.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/06dfa2b855bb47a37223f2cd28caa0a9\" tg-width=\"587\" tg-height=\"315\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Data source: IT Orange</p><p>5. Value-added services: Excellent performance, it is expected that video coin sharing and live broadcast popularity will bring</p><p>In the second quarter, the value-added business actually performed well, especially in the industry environment of the overall show, achieving revenue of 1.64 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 98%, slightly lower than the expectations of big banks.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/17b705a002cb773314ece3532fc873c7\" tg-width=\"625\" tg-height=\"324\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Data source: Bilibili financial report, compiled by Dolphin Investment Research</p><p>Station B's live broadcast and value-added services include big membership, video coin share, live broadcast reward share, etc. From the perspective of the scale of paying users, considering the poor performance of mobile games in the second quarter, and the new regulatory policy faced by Riman in April (first review and then broadcast), which is expected to have an impact on the income of big members. Therefore, excluding these two parts of income, Dolphin Jun speculates that the rapid growth of new paying users, overall live broadcast growth and value-added services should be mainly brought about by the increase in coin share and the popularity of live broadcast.</p><p>This is different from the traditional show live broadcast. At present, the live broadcast of station B is still in the growth stage of high-speed penetration.</p><p>6. Other businesses such as e-commerce: although the proportion is small, the momentum is stronger</p><p>In the second quarter, e-commerce continued to grow at a high rate nearly doubling. However, considering that this piece of income (membership purchase) is mainly driven by the consumption of core animation users, the current proportion is still relatively small at 13%. However, as the two-dimensional group of users in the Z era continues to grow, the future prospects should not be underestimated. Therefore, Mr. Dolphin suggested that investors should pay moderate attention to this business.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/18a80db984627337ad7a5bca90facc7f\" tg-width=\"632\" tg-height=\"334\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Data source: Bilibili financial report, compiled by Dolphin Investment Research</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/3vpiikFB32ccR93qlev_iw\">海豚投研</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d200d79dddd38e6e9c8afcc45f4b15a9","relate_stocks":{"09626":"哔哩哔哩-W","BILI":"哔哩哔哩"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/3vpiikFB32ccR93qlev_iw","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2160799134","content_text":"北京时间8月19日港股盘后，哔哩哔哩发布了2021年二季度财报。\n本季B站实现净营收45亿元人民币，同比增长72%，优于市场一致预期的43亿元(彭博)，一如既往的超前期指引(42.5-43.5亿元)。\n展望三季度，管理层给出收入指引 51亿元~52亿元，隐含增速在60%左右，并不算特别乐观。市场当前对三季度营收的一致预期 51.7亿落在指引区间，而以往情况，指引下限就会超出市场预期。显然这一次B站的三季度指引是略保守的。\n二季度经调整净亏损8.57亿元，优于市场预期的10.84亿元。但如果从主营业务的经营亏损情况来看，15.2亿的亏损对应34%的亏损率，而市场一致预期在28%(部分头部大行的预期有所调整，与实际亏损率差不多)，细拆数据，主要预期差在运营费用上。(具体原因下文分析)\n另外在其他关键经营指标上，二季度表现与市场预期差速览：\n数据来源：B站财报、海豚投研整理\n先说结论：\n(1)从整体上看，虽然B站二季度收入端和用户数据，明显beat了公司指引和市场预期。\n但7月底公司对外与券商做过一些二季度具体业绩情况的前瞻引导(市场多数认为前瞻并不积极，因此也引发了一轮股价的下跌)，随后市场的预期根据这次前瞻也已经调整了一段时间了。\n(2)不过，从最终交付的结果来看，广告收入表现显然还是相当出色的，同比翻一倍。\n游戏则拉垮的厉害，热门新游虽然如期发布，但整体流水不增反降。自研游戏一般般B站心里还是多少清楚的，二季度对外投资游戏工作室的脚步没有停。\n(3)用户大盘增长还可以，但老问题还是没看到改善的迹象：日活用户DAU跟不上MAU的增速，可以说体现出整体用户粘性的下滑。三季度面临了多个监管压力(暑期清朗行动、未成年人保护、直播监管等)，预计用户增长可能不如以往的暑假旺季。\n但海豚君认为，从长期来看，B的价值绝不仅于此。虽然有着不做贴片广告的初心，而当下花火平台属于私域广告性质，给Up主的分成占绝对大头，变相分吃了不少原本属于B站的潜在商业价值。另外，B站当前的用户活跃度(DAU)，公域广告的效果也不能和短视频等其他平台简单对标。\n还是那句老话，B站最有价值就是平台上不断长大成为社会消费主力的Z时代用户包括Up主。这部分用户对B站的价值认可度非常高，虽然高频活跃度不如别的平台(靠算法黏住用户)，但用户会将B站视为社区，而不是一个信息接收的工具平台。\n另外，B站用户中Up主占比一直在升高，体现除了一个长期健康的社区生态，越来越多的UGC内容和参与者，使得B站的直播等打赏类的增值服务会比传统的秀场直播更具备优势。\n如果从股价走势来看，目前的B站已经跌破合理的估值区间，海豚君认为当前的股价隐含着对B站未来过于悲观的成长预期。短期内股价波动更多的还是受到了监管环境的影响，比如特殊年文化内容监管、未成年保护、暑期清朗运动等。\n另外，视频版权监管的压力也对B站造成了一定的影响，尤其对于用户增长、用户粘性方面。预计今年三季度暑期旺季的表现相较往年增长偏弱，结合公司管理层的略保守指引，短期内可能还是走震荡。和其他泛娱乐平台一样，待1-2个季度监管环境缓和后可积极介入。\n本次财报数据详细解读\n1、整体业绩：Beat指引和预期，三季度指引一般\n(1)收入端\n二季度B站实现净营收45亿元人民币，同比增长72%，优于市场一致预期的43亿元(彭博)，beat管理层指引上限。\n\n数据来源：哔哩哔哩财报、海豚投研整理\n在不同业务中，广告收入增速继续亮眼。虽有热度较高的新游发布，但仍然表现不佳，贡献同比快速回落，直播与增值服务加速。\n\n数据来源：哔哩哔哩财报、海豚投研整理\n(2)利润端\n二季度公司毛利率环比下滑2ppt，主要是新游分成增多、内容投资(LPL全球总决赛、电竞常规赛直播权)、提高直播分成(给主播的分成已提升至80%-90%)导致。另外，由于花火的分成大头主要给到了Up主，因此B站的广告毛利率50%左右会明显低于其他平台70-80%的水平。\n\n数据来源：哔哩哔哩财报、海豚投研整理\n经营亏损(GAAP)15.21亿元，超出市场预期的11.88亿元，主要系营销费用率抬升所致。二季度不少新游发布，营销推广支出较多，环比增加了6ppt。除此之外，本季度员工薪酬和股权激励仍然在同比增加。\n\n数据来源：哔哩哔哩财报、海豚投研整理\n2、用户规模：淡季不淡，但多监管下三季度增长或有压力\n二季度用户规模相比上季度净增1380万人，达到2.37亿人，在去年高基数下仍然增长38%，高于市场预期的30%。\n考虑到睿帝此前提出的2023年4亿用户的长期指引，增速按照上一年度8折的消减速度，则今年全年的用户增长速度要超过30%，否则无法完成到2023年底破4亿的目标。(如果消减速度更快，则对今年的增长压力也更大)\n\n数据来源：哔哩哔哩财报、海豚投研整理\n关于用户粘性，老问题仍然存在，虽然有季节性原因，但用户粘性(DAU/MAU)创两年新低。平台的活跃度会影响未来的变现价值空间，尤其是对于广告主来说，更喜欢DAU高或者用户粘性更高的平台。\n\n数据来源：哔哩哔哩财报、海豚投研整理\n不过考虑到视频长短本身对于平台的活跃度也会存在一定影响，视频越长，活跃度也相对一般。从Questmobile关于不同视频app的30日留存来看。基本上遵循短视频>中视频>长视频的规律。公司此前提出，目前还在扩大体量规模出圈阶段，对这一指标的长期指引目标在30%。\n\n值得一提的是，二季度b站针对用户粘性，分别作了两个比较突出的功能页改版，预计三季度用户粘性会有一定改善：\na。 一个是竖屏模式“Story Mode”，类似短视频可以直接上下滑动切换视频，主要目的是增加用户时长。\n\nb。 另一个则是暑期刚上线的功能大改版，突出视频创作功能，以引导更多的用户转化为Up主。\n\n数据来源：哔哩哔哩财报、海豚投研整理\n付费用户上，本季度游戏、大会员以及虚拟物品(如硬币、直播礼物b坷垃等)打赏付费用户受季节性影响，整体付费用户2090万人，付费渗透率环比基本持平，但单用户付费水平下滑趋势还在加速。\n\n数据来源：哔哩哔哩财报、海豚投研整理\n\n数据来源：哔哩哔哩财报、海豚投研整理\n3、广告业务：景气不减，商业化稳步推进\n二季度B站广告收入实现10.5亿元，增速201%，大大超出市场与海豚君的预期(150%)。随着经济复苏广告投放回暖以及B站日益被认可的品牌影响力，有助于继续推动B站广告繁荣。\n\n数据来源：哔哩哔哩财报、海豚投研整理\n目前花火平台B站的自己拿掉的分成大概只有6%，并且按照总交易额确认收入，因此拉低了整体广告的毛利率水平。\n从B站特有的平台调性来看，花火平台的未来贡献也还会显著提升。但对于B站来说，花火平台对整体业绩的贡献，可能短期内并不是B站核心考虑的指标，而更多的是将花火视作一个维护Up主生态的一个主要赋能工具。\n毕竟在B站上，Up主与用户之间的交互高频，甚至存在一些的情感联系。可以视作是一个个私域关系组成。因此Up主也是B站的核心资产。\n海豚君猜测，除了需要补充更多的内容供给，考虑到花火的战略意义，这也是b站在不断扩展Up主规模的原因吧。\n4、游戏：B站的自研手游还是很难打\n二季度B站游戏收入同比下滑1%，对比同行(2季度国内手游市场增速13%)，可以说是很不好看了。虽然市场给予厚望的热门新游《坎公骑冠剑》、《机动战姬》、《刀剑神域》纷纷在二季度发布，但流水表现除了《坎公》将将能看之外，其他都很拉垮。\n\n数据来源：哔哩哔哩财报、海豚投研整理\n从第三方数据Sensor Tower来看，二季度主要靠代理的老游以及《坎公》的流水支撑，而《机动战姬》、《刀剑神域》的热度下滑未免太快。(黑色线为《原神》流水，黄色线为《坎公》流水)\n\n或许是对于自己的能力心中有数，B站在一季度投资了7家游戏公司的基础上，二季度又增加了游戏项目的投资，新增投资6家。\n\n数据来源：IT桔子\n5、增值服务：表现优异，预计视频投币分成以及直播热度带来\n二季度增值业务其实表现不错了，尤其是在整体秀场日暮西山的行业大环境下，实现收入16.4亿元，同比增长98%，略有点低于大行的预期。\n\n数据来源：哔哩哔哩财报、海豚投研整理\nB站的直播与增值服务包括大会员、视频投币分成、直播打赏分成等。从付费用户规模来看，考虑到二季度手游表现不佳，另外4月日漫面临新监管政策(先审再播)预计对大会员收入也有影响，因此剔除掉这两部分收入，海豚君猜测此次新增付费用户、整体直播增与增值服务的高速增长，应该主要由硬币分成提升、直播热度提升带来。\n这与传统秀场直播不同，目前B站的直播仍然在高速渗透的成长阶段。\n6、电商等其他业务：占比虽小，势头更猛\n二季度电商继续高增长近一倍。但考虑这一块收入(会员购)主要靠核心动漫用户消费驱动，目前占比还相对较小13%。但随着Z时代用户中二次元群体的不断壮大，未来的前景也不可过分小觑。因此，海豚君建议投资者可适度关注这一块业务。\n数据来源：哔哩哔哩财报、海豚投研整理","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"09626":0.9,"BILI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2364,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":838631181,"gmtCreate":1629389511643,"gmtModify":1676530027165,"author":{"id":"4089193130492580","authorId":"4089193130492580","name":"Kyochan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4fc81b464ccbd183246bb9a55efdc950","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4089193130492580","idStr":"4089193130492580"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$Apple(AAPL)$</a>fly fly fly","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$Apple(AAPL)$</a>fly fly fly","text":"$Apple(AAPL)$fly fly fly","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/838631181","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2390,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":839446435,"gmtCreate":1629177162127,"gmtModify":1676529954923,"author":{"id":"4089193130492580","authorId":"4089193130492580","name":"Kyochan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4fc81b464ccbd183246bb9a55efdc950","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4089193130492580","idStr":"4089193130492580"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"fly","listText":"fly","text":"fly","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/839446435","repostId":"1191687734","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1191687734","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1629170912,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1191687734?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-08-17 11:28","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Modern Dental once rose by more than 30%, expecting net profit to turn losses into profits in the first half of the year","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1191687734","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"8月17日讯，现代牙科盘中一度涨逾30%，现报8.89港元，股价创2个月新高，市值87亿港元。公司昨晚发盈喜，预期今年上半年未经审核的纯利将介乎2.3亿元至2.45亿元，而上年同期为亏损约为1.4亿元","content":"<p>August 17th,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03600\">Modern dentistry</a>It once rose more than 30% during the session and is now trading at HK $8.89. The stock price hit a 2-month high, with a market value of HK $8.7 billion.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/763dc66ab9c40c9275c7db254b9d1438\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">The company issued a profit announcement last night. It is expected that the unaudited net profit in the first half of this year will range from 230 million yuan to 245 million yuan, compared with a loss of approximately 140 million yuan in the same period last year. According to the announcement, the turnaround from loss to profit was mainly driven by the group's strong sales performance amid the steady recovery of the dental industry. The company expects to publish its results by the end of August.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Modern Dental once rose by more than 30%, expecting net profit to turn losses into profits in the first half of the year</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nModern Dental once rose by more than 30%, expecting net profit to turn losses into profits in the first half of the year\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-08-17 11:28</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>August 17th,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03600\">Modern dentistry</a>It once rose more than 30% during the session and is now trading at HK $8.89. The stock price hit a 2-month high, with a market value of HK $8.7 billion.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/763dc66ab9c40c9275c7db254b9d1438\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">The company issued a profit announcement last night. It is expected that the unaudited net profit in the first half of this year will range from 230 million yuan to 245 million yuan, compared with a loss of approximately 140 million yuan in the same period last year. According to the announcement, the turnaround from loss to profit was mainly driven by the group's strong sales performance amid the steady recovery of the dental industry. The company expects to publish its results by the end of August.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"03600":"现代牙科"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1191687734","content_text":"8月17日讯，现代牙科盘中一度涨逾30%，现报8.89港元，股价创2个月新高，市值87亿港元。公司昨晚发盈喜，预期今年上半年未经审核的纯利将介乎2.3亿元至2.45亿元，而上年同期为亏损约为1.4亿元。公告称，转亏为盈主要受集团在牙科行业稳健复苏形势下取得强劲的销售表现所驱动。公司预计于8月底刊发业绩。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"03600":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2211,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":830885930,"gmtCreate":1629046232120,"gmtModify":1676529916224,"author":{"id":"4089193130492580","authorId":"4089193130492580","name":"Kyochan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4fc81b464ccbd183246bb9a55efdc950","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4089193130492580","idStr":"4089193130492580"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"gogoog","listText":"gogoog","text":"gogoog","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/830885930","repostId":"1118683392","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1118683392","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1628926455,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1118683392?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-08-14 15:34","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Ren Zeping: 2021 Global Housing Price Trends","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1118683392","media":"格隆汇","summary":"推动新一轮房改（新房改）迫在眉睫。","content":"<p>Author: Ren Zeping Team</p><p><b>introduction</b></p><p>We put forward an analysis framework widely circulated in the industry: real estate looks at population in the long term, land in the medium term and finance in the short term. This article looks at the global housing price trend and examines the factors and laws that drive the housing price trend in different economies and major metropolitan areas.</p><p><b>The long-term differences in local currency housing prices in different economies can be explained in four aspects: the income effect brought by economic growth, the population effect caused by changes in total population and structure, the monetary illusion brought by money supply, and the supply and demand pattern influenced by housing system.</b></p><p><b>In the past 51 years, housing prices in 23 economies have increased by an average of 29.6 times, with an average annual growth rate of over 6%. According to the increase in house prices, it can be divided into three categories:</b>First, the cumulative increase of house prices in four economies, including South Africa and New Zealand, is more than 60 times, with an average annual growth rate of 8.5%-10%; Second, there are 14 economies such as Ireland and Australia where the cumulative increase in house prices is between 5-50 times and the average annual growth rate is between 5.5% and 8%; Third, there are five economies, including Thailand and Switzerland, where the cumulative increase in house prices is less than 5 times and the average annual growth rate is less than 4%.</p><p><b>During the epidemic, housing prices rose significantly, which was due to the implementation of quantitative easing policies in various countries and the release of improvement demand accumulated by the epidemic.</b>In the past year, house prices in major economies have increased by more than 7% on average, Turkey by 32% and New Zealand by 22%, while the growth rate in major Asian countries is lower than the global average, with Singapore having the largest increase of 6.1%; China's house prices rose by 4.3%.</p><p><b>The metropolitan area with the inflow of population within a country has the largest increase in housing prices.</b>House prices in London have risen 113 times in 53 years, and the increase in Inner London is even greater; Land prices in Japan rose 82 times 36 years before the bubble burst, and the increase in six core cities was as high as 210 times.</p><p><b>We call for the urgency of promoting a new round of housing reform (new housing reform), speeding up the construction of a long-term mechanism for real estate with the linkage between people and land, controlling currency and property tax as the core, and promoting the long-term stable and healthy development of the real estate market. There is still the last ten-year window.</b></p><p><b>text</b></p><p>1 Differences in housing price increases among different economies: economic growth, demographic changes, money supply, housing system</p><p><b>1.1 There are obvious differences in housing price trends in 23 economies in the past 51 years</b></p><p><b>From Q1 of 1970 to Q1 of 2021, housing prices in 23 economies rose by an average of 29.6 times, with an average annual growth rate of over 6%. According to the increase in house prices, it can be divided into three categories:</b></p><p><b>First, the cumulative increase of house prices in four economies, including South Africa, New Zealand, Spain and the United Kingdom, is more than 60 times, with an average annual growth rate of 8.5%-10%.</b>The cumulative increase of house prices in South Africa and New Zealand is as high as 110.5 times and 86.9 times respectively, with an average annual growth rate of 9.7% and 9.2% respectively, ranking first and second among 23 economies respectively; House prices in the UK have increased by 62.3 times cumulatively, with an average annual growth rate of 8.6%, ranking third among 23 economies; In Spain, house prices increased by 60.2 times from Q1 of 1979 to Q1 of 2021, with an average annual growth rate of 8.6%.</p><p><b>Second, there are 14 economies in Ireland, Australia, Hong Kong, Norway, Italy, Canada, Sweden, France, Denmark, the Netherlands, Finland, Malaysia, the United States and Belgium, where the cumulative increase of house prices is between 5-50 times and the average annual growth rate is between 5.5% and 8%.</b>House prices in Ireland and Australia have increased by 48.1 times and 47.3 times, with an average annual growth rate of 7.9%; Housing prices in Hong Kong, China increased by 19.9 times from Q1 of 1979 to Q1 of 2021, with an average annual growth rate of 7.7%; Malaysia's housing prices rose 5.1 times from Q1 of 1988 to Q1 of 2021, with an average annual growth rate of 5.6%; The growth rate of the other 10 countries is between 15-40 times, with an average annual growth rate of 5.5%-7.5%.</p><p><b>Third, there are five economies: Thailand, Switzerland, South Korea, Germany and Japan, where the cumulative increase in house prices is less than 5 times and the average annual growth rate is less than 4%.</b>Among them, Thailand rose 1.8 times from 1991Q1 to 2021Q1, with an average annual growth rate of 3.5%; South Korea's housing prices rose 3.2 times from Q1 of 1975 to Q1 of 2021, with an average annual growth rate of 3.2%; From Q1 of 1970 to Q1 of 2021, housing prices in Switzerland, Germany, and Japan increased by 4.8 times, 3.6 times, and 2.7 times cumulatively, with an average annual growth rate of 3.5%, 3.0%, and 2.6%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eeac7b4ce1943e6a27a61f1ad0644753\" tg-width=\"967\" tg-height=\"681\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b27a668cefa0b6a8cb027f216644c95b\" tg-width=\"966\" tg-height=\"695\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><b>With the deepening of economic and financial globalization, the linkage of global housing price trends has gradually increased.</b>For example, house prices in the four Nordic countries fell in the middle and late 1980s, in Japan and South Korea in the early 1990s, in Southeast Asia in 1997, and in global real estate in 2007.<b>Judging from the trend of housing prices, 23 economies in the past 51 years can be roughly divided into four categories:</b></p><p><b>First, there are four economies in which house prices basically continue to rise and the adjustment range is small during the period, including Australia, New Zealand, Canada and France.</b>Since 1970, the cumulative decline in any downward cycle of the above four countries has not exceeded 9%. Among them, Australia, New Zealand, Canada and other three countries have not experienced two consecutive years of decline; France made three significant adjustments in 1992-1995, 2008-2009, and 2011-2015, but the cumulative decline in the three times never exceeded 7%.</p><p><b>Second, there are 14 economies in which house prices have fallen sharply but have risen higher than the previous high in the later period, including Britain, the United States, Switzerland, the Netherlands, South Africa, Norway, Hong Kong, Malaysia and Thailand.</b>For example, house prices in the Netherlands plummeted by nearly 30% in 1979-1982 and more than 19% in 2008-2013, in South Africa by 11% in 1984-1986, in Finland by 37% in 1990-1992, in Switzerland by 22% in 1990-1998, in Malaysia and Thailand by more than 11% in 1997-1998 and 1998-1999 respectively, in Hong Kong, China by more than 60% in 1998-2003, in the United States by more than 30% in 2007-2011, and in the United Kingdom by nearly 11% in 1990-1992 and 13% in 2008-2009. House prices in the above economies have continued to rise after a sharp decline, and now they have exceeded their previous highs.</p><p><b>Third, there are four economies where the housing price bubble burst in the early stage and is still below the high point, including Japan, Spain, Ireland and Italy.</b>Although times and countries are different, the accumulation of previous real estate bubbles has been stimulated by excess liquidity and low interest rates without exception, while the collapse of previous real estate bubbles has been related to monetary tightening and rate hike. Housing prices in Japan, Spain, Ireland, and Italy peaked in 1990, 2007, 2007, and 2008 respectively. Housing prices in the first three countries have rebounded slightly in recent years. In 2020, housing prices in the above four countries are only equivalent to 63.4% and 84.7% of the peak respectively., 84.8%, 83.2%.</p><p><b>Fourth, there is only one economy in Germany where the trend of housing prices is basically stable and the increase is generally small.</b>Since 1970, German housing prices have experienced three relatively large rising cycles: a cumulative increase of nearly 1.8 times from 1971 to 1981, a cumulative increase of 35.1% from 1987 to 1994, and a cumulative increase of 67.6% in Q1 from 2009 to 2021; In any downward cycle, the cumulative decline has never exceeded 10%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c9b91523fdf9fd2bb5f4d451baedf75\" tg-width=\"981\" tg-height=\"686\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3be2e050170ea5199c62f80800d0fb6f\" tg-width=\"967\" tg-height=\"698\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d4915716ab9826f9a5e64f8c294cdcd6\" tg-width=\"968\" tg-height=\"694\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/411177ccdf3f9b3d00fb572c5672563e\" tg-width=\"967\" tg-height=\"689\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><b>1.2 The long-term trend of local currency housing prices is related to economic growth, population changes, money supply and housing system</b></p><p><b>The long-term trend differences of local currency housing prices in different economies can be explained in four aspects: the income effect brought by economic growth, the population effect caused by changes in total population and structure, the monetary illusion brought by money supply, and the supply and demand pattern influenced by housing system.</b>Real estate has both consumer goods attributes (housing demand, including rigid demand and improvement demand) and financial attributes (investment speculative demand, which can be leveraged), so house prices not only depend on supply and demand (population and residents' income, land supply), but also closely related to money supply. From the operation experience of the global real estate market, in the absence of disputes, plagues, natural disasters, economic and financial crises and other impacts, a country's housing prices have risen for a long time with economic development.</p><p><b>From 1970 to Q1 of 2021, the average annual growth rate of local currency housing prices and the local currency nominal GDP growth rate of 23 economies were 6.3% and 7.5% respectively. The two were relatively close, and the correlation coefficient was 0.52;</b>Excluding Thailand and Malaysia, the correlation coefficient of 21 economies is 0.54; Excluding Thailand, Malaysia, South Korea, and Hong Kong, China, the correlation coefficient of 19 economies reaches 0.87. Nominal GDP can be decomposed into per capita constant price GDP, population, GDP deflator, and the housing system that affects the supply and demand pattern. The four factors can better explain the long-term trend differences of housing prices in different economies.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a7af05caae4ef416d72059040f7bd4d3\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"653\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><b>1) The income effect brought by economic growth. The growth of constant price GDP reflects the real economic growth after excluding prices. The growth of per capita constant price GDP in local currency means that the actual purchasing power of residents increases and the demand for real estate increases.</b>In Q1 from 1970 to 2021, the average annual growth rate of local currency at constant prices in 23 economies was 2.7% and the median was 2.2%. The average annual growth rate of local currency at constant prices per capita was 1.9% and the median was 1.6% (The calculation of data for some economies starts when housing price data is available, and Spain, Hong Kong, South Korea, Malaysia, and Thailand starts in 1971, 1979, 1975, 1988, and 1991 respectively). Among them, South Korea's per capita GDP at constant local currency has an average annual growth rate of 5.3%, Ireland, Hong Kong, Malaysia and Thailand have an average annual growth rate of more than 2.5%, other economies are mostly below 2%, and South Africa has only 0.2%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/de3b1d4d783da6689b6041becd9503e2\" tg-width=\"806\" tg-height=\"577\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><b>2) Population effects caused by changes in total population and structure.</b>The impact of population on housing prices at the economic level is mainly reflected in the following three aspects:</p><p><b>First, changes in the total population affect housing prices.</b>Changes in total population include natural growth and transnational population mobility. Generally speaking, changes in population size are directly proportional to housing demand. According to World Bank data, the global fertility rate in 2019 was 2.4, of which the total fertility rates of high-income, middle-high-income, low-middle-income, and low-income economies were 1.6, 1.8, 2.7, and 4.6 respectively. The fertility rates of high-income and middle-high-income economies are no longer enough to make up for the generational replacement of the population. But high-income economies have attracted large cross-border inflows of people. From 1960 to 2020, the cumulative net inflow of population from high-income economies was 140 million, and the proportions from middle-high, middle-low, and low-income economies were 26.4%, 50.0%, and 27.1% respectively. The living standard of the population in middle-and high-income economies is close to that in high-income economies, and the migration motivation is not strong; Low-income economies have strong migration motivation, but it is difficult to bear the migration cost; Low-and middle-income economies have strong migration motivation and can bear the migration cost. According to United Nations statistics, Germany's population once decreased by about 2.3 million from 2004 to 2011, and then due to immigration's return to growth. Japan's population began to grow negatively in 2009, and Italy's population began to grow negatively in 2016.</p><p><b>Second, demographic changes affect housing prices.</b>Demographic changes such as the main home buyers aged 20-50 and the size of households will lead to changes in housing demand. In terms of household size, due to the delayed marriage age, the increase of unmarried rate and divorce rate, the low fertility rate, the prolonged life expectancy, the aging population, population mobility, etc., the global household size is becoming miniaturized, which increases a certain housing demand. From 1960 to 2015, the size of households in the United States dropped from 3.33 to 2.54, and that in Japan dropped from 4.14 to 2.39; Furthermore, South Korea decreased from 4.78 to 2.73 in 1980-2015. In terms of the main home buyers, the population aged 20-49 in the United States continues to grow, and Japan, South Korea, and the United Kingdom peaked in 1996, 2004, and 2011 respectively. Changes in the size of the main home buyers have a very significant impact on the real estate market.</p><p><b>Third, the population affects housing prices through economic growth.</b>The demographic dividend is an important source of the high-speed economic growth of many catch-up economies in the past. After the demographic dividend disappears, the economy often turns to medium or low-speed growth.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/32d6b01bca24010940600884b4f55b7e\" tg-width=\"968\" tg-height=\"691\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/373bd33ed383da37d0380f150e39c70b\" tg-width=\"968\" tg-height=\"687\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><b>3) Monetary illusion brought about by money supply.</b>From the international experience, in the process of economic development, most countries have varying degrees of over-issuance of currency, which leads to changes in asset prices. Generally speaking, a high growth rate of broad money supply leads to a high inflation. From 1970 to 2021Q1, the average annual GDP deflator of the 23 economies was 4.3% and the median was 4.0%, which was not only close to the average annual growth rate of housing prices of 6.3% in the 23 economies in absolute terms, but also The fluctuations are relatively consistent. For example, in Q1 from 1970 to 2021, South Africa's broad money increased by 532.5 times. Under the substantial excess of money, South Africa's nominal GDP increased by 390.2 times, its real GDP only increased by 1.9 times, the GDP deflator increased by 130.2 times, and house prices increased by 101.6 times; U.S. broad money increased by 33.2 times, nominal GDP increased by 19.0 times, real GDP increased by 2.8 times, GDP deflator increased by 5.2 times, and house prices increased by 13 times. However, over-issuance of currency can easily breed asset price bubbles such as real estate, and in extreme cases, it may even lead to economic crises, such as the real estate bubble in Japan in 1990s and the subprime mortgage crisis in the United States in 2007.</p><p><b>Due to the rapid growth of broad money in emerging economies, the increase of house prices in local currency is greater than that in developed economies.</b>According to World Bank data, the average annual growth rate of broad money in nine representative emerging economies such as India and Mexico from 2001 to 2020 was 13.7%, which was significantly higher than the 5.3% in six representative developed economies such as Britain, the United States and Japan. According to BIS statistics, the average annual growth rate of housing prices in emerging economies was 6.8% from 2010 to 2020, exceeding the average annual growth rate of housing prices in developed economies of 3.8%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d7906272da5dc3fe1c22ea5aa0f4e99e\" tg-width=\"967\" tg-height=\"683\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><b>4) The supply and demand pattern affected by the housing system.</b>Housing system is the orientation of a country's real estate market. A good housing system can stabilize housing prices for a long time and support the development of the real economy. A bad housing system may cause housing prices to soar and plummet, weaken or even hollow out the real economy. The key to the long-term stability of Germany's housing prices lies in the design of its housing-oriented housing system. The three pillars are: neutral and prudent monetary policy and housing financial system, a tax system that encourages residents to hold housing for a long time and cracks down on speculation, and a rental system that protects tenants' rights and interests and encourages long-term renting. At present, Singapore has formed a dual supply system with HDB flats as the mainstay and private houses as the supplement. The supply structure presents a ladder distribution of \"low-rent housing-low-price housing-improved HDB flats-private houses\", and the housing ownership rate exceeds 90%, basically realizing home ownership.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/32a2ee39af0d3a9fd9990c2373fa67d0\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"646\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><b>The price increase of US $1.3 is significantly different from that of local currency</b></p><p><b>In terms of U.S. dollars, from 1970 to Q1 2021, the increase in housing prices in 23 economies changed significantly, and there is a certain correlation between the increase in U.S. dollar housing prices and the growth of U.S. dollar nominal GDP. If an economy's currency excess is more serious than that of the United States, the currency will depreciate against the US dollar. Therefore, a sharp rise in local currency house prices does not mean a sharp rise in US dollar house prices, and it does not necessarily have investment value globally.</b>According to the increase of US dollar house prices, it can be roughly divided into four categories: First, the cumulative increase exceeds 50 times and the average annual growth exceeds 8%, only one in New Zealand. Second, the cumulative increase is 25-35 times and the average annual growth rate is 7%-7.5%. There are three economies: the United Kingdom, the Netherlands and Spain. Third, the cumulative increase is 10-20 times and the average annual growth rate is 5%-6.9%. There are 14 economies including Ireland, Australia, Norway, Belgium, Italy and Japan. Fourth, the cumulative growth rate is less than 9 times and the average annual growth rate is less than 5%. There are five economies: Germany, Malaysia, South Africa, Thailand and South Korea. Compared with the increase in local currency house prices, the biggest change is in South Africa. From 1970 to 2021Q1, the increase in local currency house prices was as high as 110.5 times, but the increase in US dollar house prices was only 3.8 times. In addition, the price of local currency in Switzerland increased by only 4.8 times, but the price of US dollar reached 25.9 times; Italian currency house prices rose 34.7 times, but US dollar house prices shrank to 12.1 times; German local currency house prices rose 3.6 times, and US dollar house prices rose 8.8 times.</p><p><b>From the correlation coefficient,</b>The correlation coefficient between US dollar house price growth and US dollar nominal GDP growth in 23 economies is only 0.20, which is weak. However, if South Korea, where US dollar nominal GDP has increased by 75.3 times and US dollar house price has increased by only 0.7 times, and Ireland, where US dollar nominal GDP has increased by 99.6 times and US dollar house price has increased by only 28.7 times, the correlation coefficient of the remaining 21 economies is 0.77; This shows that from the perspective of global real estate asset allocation, the positive correlation between the growth of US dollar house prices and the growth of US dollar nominal GDP in an economy is generally established. The difference in the long-term trend of US dollar house prices in different economies can also be decomposed by corresponding factors similar to the trend of local currency house prices in the previous period. The difference is that the exchange rate mechanism eliminates the currency excessive issuance factor of an economy relative to the United States.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3cfaeece0e6f1a8b3cdfe7ae7493e4fc\" tg-width=\"968\" tg-height=\"692\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><b>1.4 Global housing prices have increased significantly under the epidemic</b></p><p><b>In the past year, house prices in major economies have risen by more than 7% on average, Turkey by 32% and New Zealand by more than 20%.</b>According to KnightFrank data, house prices in Turkey rose by 32% from Q1 2020 to Q1 2021, topping the list; New Zealand, which was followed closely, rose 22%; Luxembourg ranked third, with an increase of 16.6%; Slovakia ranked fourth, with an increase of 15.5%; The United States ranked fifth, with a 13% increase, the largest increase since 2005. However, the growth rate of major Asian countries is lower than the global average, and Singapore's house price has the largest increase of 6.1%; Japan, which was followed closely, rose 5.7%; China's house prices rose by 4.3%.</p><p><b>During the epidemic, the large increase in housing prices was due to the implementation of quantitative easing policies in various countries and the release of improvement demand accumulated by the epidemic.</b>1) From the perspective of monetary policy, in order to stimulate economic recovery under the impact of the epidemic, central banks of various countries have implemented quantitative easing policies. On the one hand, under quantitative easing's policy, there has been more liquidity in the market, and it has reached the hands of the people through corporate bailout funds and unemployment benefits. At the same time, under the loose monetary policy, mortgage interest rates have been reduced. For example, the 30-year fixed mortgage interest rate anchored by the American Mortgage Bankers Association has reached a record low of 3.08%. On the other hand, the currency devaluation brought about by quantitative easing's policies has made people eager to find value-preserving assets, and real estate with value-preserving and appreciating attributes has become the first choice for investment. 2) From the perspective of demand, the backlog of improvement demand during the epidemic will be released after the epidemic is controlled to a certain extent. Secondly, \"black swan\" events such as the epidemic have caused more and more investors to try to reduce risks by diversifying the allocation of assets, and owning a second home has become the choice of more high-net-worth individuals. 3) From the perspective of supply, loose monetary policy has triggered a general rise in asset prices, and rising raw material prices have increased construction costs. At the same time, the epidemic has led to a shortage of workers, exacerbating the tight supply of raw materials, further pushing up raw material prices, and in turn pushing up housing prices.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/834288b9b8894d0402b3c3f3f5cd3a38\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"639\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>2 Which region within a country has the largest increase in house prices: the metropolitan area with population inflow</p><p><b>2.1 UK: London house prices have risen 113 times in 53 years, and Inner London has increased even more</b></p><p>There are three areas of London: the City of London, Greater London, and the London metropolitan area. The City of London is the City of London, with a small area. Generally speaking, London refers to the Greater London area, including 319 square kilometers of inner London and 1,254 square kilometers of outer London, with a total land area of 1,573 square kilometers, accounting for 0.6% of the UK; The London metropolitan area consists of Greater London and surrounding areas. Due to urban planning problems and other prominent diseases in big cities, the British government once controlled the population of London, especially inner London, moved industries out after World War II, and built a large number of new cities. From 1941 to 1991, the population of London dropped from 8.62 million to 6.39 million, and then rose to 8.82 million in 2017, currently accounting for 13.4% of the British population. However, under the influence of economy, the population around London has been concentrated for a long time. From 1931 to 2001, the population in southeastern England increased from less than 13 million to more than 18 million, accounting for 27.5% to 31.1%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/02ca4c76a629e8fce4ea2dff163fba65\" tg-width=\"966\" tg-height=\"708\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><b>In the past 53 years, house prices in Greater London have increased by 113 times, far exceeding the average increase of house prices in Britain and England (71 and 81 times), and the nominal GDP increase in Britain (51 times).</b>According to data from the Office of National Statistics (ONS), in the United Kingdom, from 1968 to March 2021, house prices in Greater London rose from 4,400 pounds/unit to 500,000 pounds/unit, and in England rose from 3,400 pounds/unit to 275,000 pounds/unit, nationwide from 3,600 pounds/unit to 256,000 pounds/unit. House prices in London have increased by 113 times, higher than 71 times nationwide and 81 times in England. During the same period (1967-2020), the nominal GDP of the United Kingdom increased by 50.7 times, with an average annual growth rate of 7.7%, and the increase in house prices significantly outperformed the nominal GDP growth.</p><p><b>Looking at the stages, the increase of house prices in Greater London, England and Britain was very close before 1994, but the fluctuation increased significantly after 1995, especially after the global financial crisis in 2008.</b>From 1968 to 1994, house prices in Greater London, England and the United Kingdom increased by 15.0 times, 14.7 times and 14.6 times respectively, with small differences; But from then until March 2018, the increase in house prices was significantly differentiated, which were 5.3 times, 3.5 times and 3 times respectively. Affected by the 2008 financial crisis, house prices in Greater London, England and the United Kingdom fell by 16.6%, 15.0% and 14.9% year-on-year in April 2009; After that, under the background of monetary stimulus quantitative easing, house prices gradually picked up, with average annual growth rates of 7.5%, 4.5% and 4.1% by March 2018, respectively.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/65731004c8f9a4f7c0bc36cc5cfb211a\" tg-width=\"970\" tg-height=\"679\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><b>From the inside of London metropolitan area, house prices in Greater London have increased by more than 6.5 times in the past 26 years, ranking first in the region, and the surrounding areas have increased by less than 6.0%.</b>In the three years from January 1995 to 2021, house prices in Greater London increased by 6.7 times, while the increases in the surrounding areas of Kent, Hertfordshire, Essex, Windsor and Maidenhead and Surrey were 5.5, 5.7, 5.5, 5.2 and 5.4 times respectively. The increase in house prices in Greater London was significantly higher than that in the surrounding areas. In addition, house prices in Birmingham, the second largest city in the UK, rose only 4.6 times during this period, which was significantly lower than the increase in London and surrounding areas.</p><p><b>From the inside of Greater London, in the past 26 years, house prices in the core areas of London have increased by more than 7 times, while those in outer London have increased by less than 6.5 times.</b>From January 1995 to March 2021, house prices in Inner London rose from 78,300 pounds/unit to 594,500 pounds/unit, an increase of 7.6 times; House prices in outer London rose from 73,000 pounds/unit to 451,000 pounds/unit, an increase of 6.2 times. At present, the most expensive house prices in London are Kensington and Chelsea (1,227,200 pounds/unit), followed by City of Westminster (936,800 pounds/unit), which are 6.7 times and 7.0 times higher than in January 1995 respectively.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d53232626f2d5e64d75a676f520e515f\" tg-width=\"968\" tg-height=\"692\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e1e929dc297e8b1905401a6ed5999242\" tg-width=\"967\" tg-height=\"697\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><b>2.2 France: Housing prices in Paris have increased 44 times in 55 years, exceeding that in surrounding areas</b></p><p>Paris has three areas: Paris (or Little Paris), Greater Paris (including three suburban provinces) and Paris Region (including four outer suburban provinces, also known as \"Île de France\"), with land areas of 105, 761 and 12001 square kilometers respectively, of which the land area of Paris Region accounts for 1.8% of France. With industrial agglomeration, the French population has continued to gather in Paris and surrounding areas for a long time. From 1876 to 2014, the population of the Paris region basically continued to increase from 3.32 million to 12.03 million, the population share increased from 8.6% to 18.8%, and the economic share increased from 28.4% in 1990 to 30.4% in 2014. During this period, for the purpose of controlling the population and treating diseases in big cities, the city of Paris experienced a long period of decline. From 1931 to 1999, it continued to decline from 2.89 million to 2.13 million, and then rose to 2.18 million in 2018.</p><p><b>In the past 55 years, house prices in Paris have increased by 43.7 times in 55 years, significantly exceeding the average increase of house prices in France (26.6 times) and the increase of nominal GDP in France (29.5 times), with average annual growth rates of 7.2%, 6.2% and 6.4% respectively.</b>Prior to this, from 1945 to 1965, affected by post-war reconstruction, baby boom and large currency excess, house prices in Paris and France soared 54.1 and 38.3 times respectively, with an average annual growth rate of 22.2% and 20.1%, but they still lagged behind nominal GDP. Average annual growth rate (51.2% in 1950-1965).</p><p><b>Look at it in stages,</b>After 1966, the trend of house prices in Paris can be divided into four stages: 1) From 1966 to 1990, the period of rapid rise in house prices. During this period, housing prices in Paris, housing prices in France, and nominal GDP in France increased by 10.7%, 9.3%, and 10.6% annually. 2) From 1992 to 1997, the period of house price decline. Due to the strong real estate speculation in Paris around 1985-1990 and the excessive increase in house prices (among which the increase in four consecutive years from 1987 to 1990 exceeded 17%), house prices in Paris began to fall sharply. During this period, housing prices in Paris, French housing prices, and French nominal GDP grew at an average annual rate of-6.1%,-0.4%, and 3.8%. By the end of 1997, housing prices in Paris had plummeted to 69% in 1991. 3) 1998-2015, a period of fluctuating growth. During this period, housing prices in Paris, housing prices in France, and nominal GDP in France increased by 7.2%, 5.0%, and 3.0% annually. Among them, house prices in Paris fell continuously from 2013 to 2015. However, after 2015, house prices in Paris ushered in a wave of large increases.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c239d397cf1aeafa440025897669e859\" tg-width=\"968\" tg-height=\"695\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><b>The increase in housing prices in Paris ranks first in the Paris region. From Q4 of 1997 to Q1 of 2021, the increase in housing prices in Paris exceeded 3.5 times, which is significantly higher than that in the three suburban provinces and the four outer suburban provinces.</b>As the land area of Paris is small (105 square kilometers), which is slightly larger than the sum of the areas of Dongcheng and Xicheng districts in Beijing (93 square kilometers), we no longer analyze the internal housing prices in Paris, but regard Paris as the core area of Paris Region, and analyze the trend differences between it and other areas of Paris Region. According to data from the French Statistics Office (INSEE), from Q4 of 1997 to Q1 of 2021, house prices in Paris increased by 3.7 times, significantly exceeding the 2.5 times of the three suburban provinces and the 1.6 times of the four outer suburban provinces. During this period, France's nominal GDP increased by 0.8 times. House prices in the three suburban provinces of Hauts de Seine, Seine St Denis and Val de Marne increased by 2.6 times, 2.5 times and 2.4 times respectively. House prices in the four outer suburbs of Yvelines, Val d 'Oise, Seine and Marne and Essonne increased by 1.8 times, 1.7 times, 1.5 times and 1.5 times respectively.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef31ec3f0316c99a2e4b77fd99eac928\" tg-width=\"971\" tg-height=\"678\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><b>2.3 United States: Housing prices in New York City have risen 9 times in 46 years, and Queens has performed better</b></p><p>New York has multiple meanings: new york city, new york metropolitan area, new york joint statistical area, etc. Among them, New York City has a land area of 789 square kilometers and a population of 8.55 million in 2015; The New York-Newark-Jersey City Metropolitan Statistical Area (NY-NJ-PAMSA) covers an area of about 17,000 square kilometers, with a population of 20.18 million in 2015; The New York-Newark Combined Statistical Area consists of the New York metropolitan area and adjacent metropolitan areas, with a population of 23.72 million in 2015. From the perspective of population, due to the shift of the economic center of gravity of the United States to the west coast and south coast, although the population of new york basically continued to grow from 1950 to 2015, the growth rate of 84% was much less than that of Los Angeles, which made the population proportion of new york drop significantly. During this period, due to suburbanization of the population and the decline of manufacturing, the population of new york decreased from 7.89 million to 7.02 million from 1950 to 1980; Later, due to urban renewal and industrial transformation and upgrading, it rose to 8.55 million in 2015, and the population dropped slightly to 8.42 million in 2019.</p><p><b>In the past 46 years, house prices in new york have increased by more than 9 times, higher than the average level in the United States, but lower than the increase in house prices around new york and Los Angeles.</b>According to statistics from the U.S. Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA), from 1975 to 2021 Q1, the United States, New York City, New York-Jersey-White Plains Subdivision (one of the New York metropolitan area subdivisions) (1976-2021 Q1), Los Angeles-Long Beach-House prices in the Glendale subdivision (one of the Los Angeles metropolitan area subdivisions) increased by 8.1 times, 9.9 times, 12.9 times, and 19.7 times respectively, with average annual growth rates of 4.9%, 5.3%, 6.0%, and 6.8% respectively. Although the price increase of new york-Jersey-White Plains subdivision is not as good as that of Los Angeles-Long Beach-Glendale subdivision, it is still significantly higher than the U.S. average. In addition, during this period, the nominal GDP of the United States increased by 13.7 times, with an average annual growth rate of 6.0%, and M2 increased by 20.5 times, with an average annual growth rate of 6.9%. This means that housing prices in New York City underperformed the nominal GDP and M2 of the United States during the same period, while the Los Angeles-Long Beach-Glendale subdivision outperformed the nominal GDP of the United States, close to M2.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3365bc98f3d57e2abfa2e44b8cd57d69\" tg-width=\"970\" tg-height=\"685\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/22a2c22f165e582eba667aa4ba1eed6f\" tg-width=\"966\" tg-height=\"687\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><b>Within the new york metropolitan area, house prices in the new york subdivision have increased more than four times in the past 35 years, ranking second among the four major subdivisions in the new york metropolitan area.</b>In addition to the New York-Jersey City-White Plains subdivision, the New York metropolitan area also includes three subdivisions: NassauCounty-Suffolk County, Dutchess County-Putnam County, and Newark. The trends of housing prices in the four major sub-districts are basically the same. Among them, from 1986 to Q1 2021, the Nassau County-Suffolk County sub-district increased by 4.3 times, with an average annual increase of 4.9%, ranking first; New York-Jersey City-White Plains Subdivision rose 4.1 times, with an average annual increase of 4.6%, ranking second; Newark subdivision and DutchessCounty-Putnam County subdivision (1986-2018 Q1) rose by 3.4 times and 2.6 times respectively, with average annual increases of 4.3% and 4.6% respectively.</p><p><b>Within new york, house prices in Manhattan have nearly doubled in the past 30 years, which is higher than the level of new york.</b>From 1991 to Q1 2021, house prices in Manhattan, New York City increased by 1.9 times, with an average annual increase of 3.7%, and house prices in Queens (1991-2020) increased by 2.8 times, with an average annual increase of 4.7%. During this period, house prices in New York City and New York subdivisions increased by 1.8 times and 2.0 times respectively, with average annual growth rates of 3.5% and 3.8% respectively.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d564c533cc7c696dd75bfb7fc8caa8b\" tg-width=\"970\" tg-height=\"699\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><b>2.4 Japan: Six core cities have increased 210 times in 36 years</b></p><p>Tokyo has three areas: Tokyo Metropolitan Area, Tokyo Metropolitan Area, including Chiba Prefecture, Saitama Prefecture and Tokyo Circle of Kanagawa Prefecture, with land areas of 627, 2188 and 13,558 square kilometers respectively. The land area of Tokyo Circle accounts for 3.6% of Japan's, with a population of 36.94 million in 2020, accounting for 29.3% of Japan's, and the current regional GDP accounts for about 1/3 of Japan's.</p><p>Japanese population mobility is divided into two stages: before 1974, the national population basically continued to gather in Tokyo Circle, Osaka Circle and Nagoya Circle. From 1884 to 1973, in addition to the impact of the war, the population of Tokyo increased from 4.06 million to 26.07 million, accounting for 23.9% from 10.8%; The population of Osaka Circle increased from 3.92 million to 16.36 million, accounting for 10.5% to 15.0%; The population of Nagoya Circle increased from 3.11 million to 9.18 million, accounting for 8.3% to 8.4%. After that, it turned to one pole concentration in Tokyo circle, while the inflow and outflow of population in Nagoya circle were basically balanced, and the long-term net outflow in Osaka circle; By 2016, the population of Tokyo Circle, Osaka Circle and Nagoya Circle was 36.29 million, 18.31 million and 11.34 million respectively, accounting for 28.6%, 14.4% and 8.9% respectively. During this period, the population growth of Osaka Circle and Nagoya Circle was mainly due to natural growth. The population growth of Tokyo stagnated from 1970 to 1997, mainly due to the industrial transfer and population emigration in Tokyo metropolitan area, but the population of Tokyo's non-metropolitan area and Tokyo circle increased significantly.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d574585fc9099cc15439a0835d5fb4e1\" tg-width=\"968\" tg-height=\"688\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><b>Land prices in Japan rose 82 times 36 years before the bubble burst, and the increase in six core cities was as high as 210 times.</b>Before the bursting of the real estate bubble in 1991, Japan's land prices continued to rise except for the adjustment in 1975, rising 82 times from 1955 to 1991, exceeding the nominal GDP increase of 55 times during this period; Among them, the land price of six core cities increased by 210 times, and that of non-core cities increased by 78 times. Looking at stages, from 1955 to 1974, land prices in six core cities including Tokyo, Yokohama, Nagoya, Kyoto, Osaka and Kobe increased by 40.6 times, with an average annual rate of 21.7%, while other cities increased by 29.6 times, with an average annual rate of 19.7%. During the same period, the nominal GDP increased by 15 times, with an average annual rate of 15.7%. From 1975 to 1991, land prices in six core cities increased by 4.5 times, with an average annual average of 11.2%, and land prices in other cities increased by 1.7 times, with an average annual average of 6.4%. During the same period, nominal GDP increased by 2.2 times, with an average annual average of 7.5%.</p><p>Japan's housing prices continued to rise after the adjustment in 1975, mainly due to economic growth and the support of the main home buyers. However, due to the rapid rise in the later period, the sharp decline in the birth population, the peak of the main home buyers in the 1990s, and the wrong response of the Japanese government, the real estate bubble burst in the early 1990s. After that, the land price in Japan continued to adjust until 2005. In 2017, the land price in Japan was only 47.1% of the peak. Land prices in six core cities fell from 1992 to 2005. After experiencing a short-term increase from 2006 to 2008, they fell again from 2009 to 2012 due to the global financial crisis. They began to rise in 2013 and have only been equivalent to 35.3% of the peak in 1991; Due to population outflow, land prices in non-core cities in Japan have been falling since 1992. In 2017, land prices were equivalent to 47.5% of the peak in 1991.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b856c3f9e7ac62406c37642cf3647a60\" tg-width=\"967\" tg-height=\"689\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><b>The trend of land price in Tokyo is basically consistent with that of Japan as a whole, but the peak was in 1990, one year earlier than that of Japan as a whole. From 1976 to 1990, it rose 3.4 times, with an average annual average of 11.1%; After that, it continued to fall until 2005, and in 2014 it stopped falling and rebounded ahead of the whole country.</b>Housing prices in Tokyo and Osaka peaked in 1990, while land prices in Nagoya and local areas peaked in 1991 and 1992 respectively. From 1976 to the peak of housing prices, land prices in Tokyo, Osaka, Nagoya, and local areas increased by 3.4, 3.9, 2.0, and 0.9 times respectively, with an average annual growth rate of 11.1%, 12.0%, 7.7%, and 4.0% respectively; Especially before the burst of the housing price bubble, the land price in Tokyo soared by 0.95 times from 1987 to 1988, and the land price in Osaka soared by 1.6 times from 1988 to 1990. From 1976 to 1991, Japan's nominal GDP increased by 1.8 times, with an average annual growth rate of 7.2%, and M2 increased by 2.7 times, with an average annual growth rate of 9.0%.</p><p>After the real estate bubble burst in the early 1990s, the land price in Tokyo dropped sharply until 2005, and began to rise from 2006 to 2008. However, due to the impact of the global financial crisis, it began to adjust again in 2009 and began to rise again in 2014. By 2020, the Tokyo area, Osaka area, Nagoya area, and local land prices will only be 40.7%, 27.8%, 59.0%, and 56.7% of the peak respectively. The reason why the adjustment of land price in Osaka is the most tragic is that it rose the most before the bubble burst and lacked population support.</p><p><b>The land price in the Tokyo Metropolitan Area peaked in 1988, and tripled in the five years before the peak. At the same time, the adjustment was early and the decline stopped quickly. From 2005 to 2020, the cumulative increase exceeded 25%, the highest in the Tokyo area.</b>Land prices in Tokyo and Tokyo metropolitan area peaked in 1988, two years earlier than Tokyo circle and three years earlier than Japan as a whole. In the first five years of the peak, house prices in Tokyo metropolitan area tripled, which was 1.8 times higher than that in Tokyo and 1.2 times higher than that in Tokyo. After peaking, house prices in Tokyo and the Tokyo metropolitan area continued to fall until 2005, then fell from 2009 to 2013, and began to rise in 2014. From 2005 to 2020, housing prices in Tokyo and Tokyo metropolitan areas increased by 13.3% and 27.5% respectively, housing prices in non-districts of Tokyo were basically the same, and housing prices in Tokyo fell by 1.7%. In 2016, housing prices in Tokyo, districts and non-metropolitan areas were equivalent to 42.7%, 46.7% and 38.8% of their peaks respectively, which was very close to 40.7% in Tokyo circle.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/befe38251db05984d0243ae602871331\" tg-width=\"967\" tg-height=\"685\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1a8bad47d30fee108ac396d9cb7ee063\" tg-width=\"966\" tg-height=\"695\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>3 Conclusion: In the past 51 years, real estate in metropolitan areas has outperformed the money printing press and promoted new housing reform</p><p><b>1) From a global perspective, a country's real estate market depends on: economic growth, demographic changes, money supply, and housing system. Among them, the first two items are fundamental factors; Excessive currency issuance will lead to a sharp rise in domestic local currency house prices, but not necessarily in US dollar house prices, that is, it may not necessarily have investment value from a global perspective; Housing system is the policy orientation of a country's real estate market.</b></p><p><b>2) Real estate has anti-inflation properties and can partially share the dividends of economic growth. Moreover, real estate in metropolitan areas of most countries is one of the few assets that can outperform money printing presses.</b>From 1970 to Q1 2021, the growth rate of local currency housing prices in 23 economies all exceeded their respective CPI increases to varying degrees. The average annual growth rate of actual housing prices in the United Kingdom, New Zealand, Hong Kong, and Malaysia after deducting CPI can still reach more than 3%, while Japan and Germany after deducting CPI The actual housing price growth is close to 0. Compared with local currency nominal GDP growth, in Q1 1970-2021, only a few of the 23 economies, such as New Zealand, outperformed in housing prices, which means that housing prices in most economies can only partially share the economic growth dividend.</p><p><b>In the long run, global currency excessive issuance is a common phenomenon. The growth rate of broad money is mostly higher than the nominal GDP growth. There are not many assets that can outperform the printing press. Real estate in metropolitan areas of most countries is one of them.</b>From an international perspective, the average annual growth rate of house prices in the UK from 1987 to 2020 was 5.6%. Although it was higher than the average annual growth rate of nominal GDP of 4.5%, it was still lower than the average annual growth rate of broad money of 7.1%; From 1960 to 2020, the average annual growth rate of housing prices in the United States was 4.5%, while the average annual growth rate of nominal GDP and M2 was 6.3% and 7.1% respectively. From the perspective of metropolitan areas, in the United States, from 1975 to 2020, house prices in the New York-Jersey-White Plains subdivision grew at an average annual rate of 5.8%, which was lower than the 6.8% of M2 in the same period and the same as the 5.8% of GDP. In China, the average annual growth rate of broad money supply M2 has been 15% in the past 40 years. Since 1998, the average annual compound growth rate of the average sales price of new housing in China has reached 7.72%, which is nearly 8 percentage points lower than the growth rate of M2 in the same period, while the housing prices in first-tier cities are basically the same as the growth rate of M2.</p><p><b>3) From the perspective of global asset allocation, some emerging economies with great economic growth potential, especially real estate in their core cities, have great investment potential.</b>Generally speaking, the over-issuance of currency in emerging economies is serious, and the increase of house price is also large. However, from the perspective of global asset allocation, investors are concerned about the increase of US dollar house price, that is, the exchange rate change caused by the relative over-issuance of currency is excluded, while the increase of US dollar house price is mainly related to the nominal GDP growth of US dollar, which can decompose factors such as economic growth, demographic change and housing system. Some emerging economies with great economic growth potential may have a \"golden age\" similar to that of China's real estate market in the future, but we need to pay attention to political, legal and other related risks.</p><p><b>4) Build a residential-oriented new housing system in China.</b>The 20-year development of China's real estate shows that short-term regulation can't solve the fundamental contradiction of long-term imbalance between supply and demand, and deepening the reform of housing system is the foundation to realize the stable and healthy development of the real estate market.</p><p><b>First, reform the \"linkage between people and land\" and optimize land supply.</b>At present, the \"man-land linkage\" is to link the number of agricultural migrants settled in with the supply of construction land, which can't solve the contradiction between the inflow of population in hot cities and the tight housing supply. In the future, the newly-added permanent population should be linked to land supply, and the inter-provincial cultivated land occupation and compensation balance should be linked to the increase or decrease of urban and rural land, such as the land sales indicators in northeast and western regions, which can effectively solve the problem of a large amount of waste of land indicators in northeast and western China. Strictly implement the principle of \"linking the inventory de-stocking cycle with land supply\" and optimize the current land supply mode.</p><p><b>The second is to maintain the long-term stability of monetary policy and real estate financial policy.</b>Implement a long-term and stable housing credit financial policy, stabilize the expectations of property buyers, support the demand for rigid and improved housing purchases, and curb speculative demand. Support the reasonable financing needs of real estate enterprises, standardize the use of financing, and prevent excessive financing.</p><p><b>The third is to change the housing supply structure and enrich the main body of supply.</b>At present, China's housing supply system emphasizes sales over leasing, and a multi-subject supply housing system has not yet been established. In the future, the main supply body will change from developers to the government, developers, leasing intermediary companies, long-term rental companies and other multi-party suppliers; The form of supply will also shift from commercial housing to commercial housing, rental housing, shared property housing and other categories. However, the exploration of housing supply structure and the introduction of policies must be adapted to local conditions, and cities with net population outflow should be especially wary of blindly following the trend.</p><p><b>The fourth is to steadily promote the pilot project of property tax.</b>With the end of the era of large-scale development, the land transfer fee has decreased and the tax revenue in the transaction link has decreased in the era of stock housing. It is the general trend to introduce property tax. From international experience, property tax is usually regarded as an important and stable source of local fiscal revenue by mature market economies. The general principle of property tax reform is \"legislation first, full authorization and step-by-step advancement\". \"Legislation first\" means legislation first and then levy; \"Full authorization\" means authorizing all localities to pilot projects according to local conditions, not across the board; the property tax itself is the local main tax according to international experience; \"Distributed promotion\" is active and steady promotion, and we should strive for a mature scheme and do a good job in guiding social expectations.</p>","source":"gelonghui_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Ren Zeping: 2021 Global Housing Price Trends</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nRen Zeping: 2021 Global Housing Price Trends\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">格隆汇</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-14 15:34</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Author: Ren Zeping Team</p><p><b>introduction</b></p><p>We put forward an analysis framework widely circulated in the industry: real estate looks at population in the long term, land in the medium term and finance in the short term. This article looks at the global housing price trend and examines the factors and laws that drive the housing price trend in different economies and major metropolitan areas.</p><p><b>The long-term differences in local currency housing prices in different economies can be explained in four aspects: the income effect brought by economic growth, the population effect caused by changes in total population and structure, the monetary illusion brought by money supply, and the supply and demand pattern influenced by housing system.</b></p><p><b>In the past 51 years, housing prices in 23 economies have increased by an average of 29.6 times, with an average annual growth rate of over 6%. According to the increase in house prices, it can be divided into three categories:</b>First, the cumulative increase of house prices in four economies, including South Africa and New Zealand, is more than 60 times, with an average annual growth rate of 8.5%-10%; Second, there are 14 economies such as Ireland and Australia where the cumulative increase in house prices is between 5-50 times and the average annual growth rate is between 5.5% and 8%; Third, there are five economies, including Thailand and Switzerland, where the cumulative increase in house prices is less than 5 times and the average annual growth rate is less than 4%.</p><p><b>During the epidemic, housing prices rose significantly, which was due to the implementation of quantitative easing policies in various countries and the release of improvement demand accumulated by the epidemic.</b>In the past year, house prices in major economies have increased by more than 7% on average, Turkey by 32% and New Zealand by 22%, while the growth rate in major Asian countries is lower than the global average, with Singapore having the largest increase of 6.1%; China's house prices rose by 4.3%.</p><p><b>The metropolitan area with the inflow of population within a country has the largest increase in housing prices.</b>House prices in London have risen 113 times in 53 years, and the increase in Inner London is even greater; Land prices in Japan rose 82 times 36 years before the bubble burst, and the increase in six core cities was as high as 210 times.</p><p><b>We call for the urgency of promoting a new round of housing reform (new housing reform), speeding up the construction of a long-term mechanism for real estate with the linkage between people and land, controlling currency and property tax as the core, and promoting the long-term stable and healthy development of the real estate market. There is still the last ten-year window.</b></p><p><b>text</b></p><p>1 Differences in housing price increases among different economies: economic growth, demographic changes, money supply, housing system</p><p><b>1.1 There are obvious differences in housing price trends in 23 economies in the past 51 years</b></p><p><b>From Q1 of 1970 to Q1 of 2021, housing prices in 23 economies rose by an average of 29.6 times, with an average annual growth rate of over 6%. According to the increase in house prices, it can be divided into three categories:</b></p><p><b>First, the cumulative increase of house prices in four economies, including South Africa, New Zealand, Spain and the United Kingdom, is more than 60 times, with an average annual growth rate of 8.5%-10%.</b>The cumulative increase of house prices in South Africa and New Zealand is as high as 110.5 times and 86.9 times respectively, with an average annual growth rate of 9.7% and 9.2% respectively, ranking first and second among 23 economies respectively; House prices in the UK have increased by 62.3 times cumulatively, with an average annual growth rate of 8.6%, ranking third among 23 economies; In Spain, house prices increased by 60.2 times from Q1 of 1979 to Q1 of 2021, with an average annual growth rate of 8.6%.</p><p><b>Second, there are 14 economies in Ireland, Australia, Hong Kong, Norway, Italy, Canada, Sweden, France, Denmark, the Netherlands, Finland, Malaysia, the United States and Belgium, where the cumulative increase of house prices is between 5-50 times and the average annual growth rate is between 5.5% and 8%.</b>House prices in Ireland and Australia have increased by 48.1 times and 47.3 times, with an average annual growth rate of 7.9%; Housing prices in Hong Kong, China increased by 19.9 times from Q1 of 1979 to Q1 of 2021, with an average annual growth rate of 7.7%; Malaysia's housing prices rose 5.1 times from Q1 of 1988 to Q1 of 2021, with an average annual growth rate of 5.6%; The growth rate of the other 10 countries is between 15-40 times, with an average annual growth rate of 5.5%-7.5%.</p><p><b>Third, there are five economies: Thailand, Switzerland, South Korea, Germany and Japan, where the cumulative increase in house prices is less than 5 times and the average annual growth rate is less than 4%.</b>Among them, Thailand rose 1.8 times from 1991Q1 to 2021Q1, with an average annual growth rate of 3.5%; South Korea's housing prices rose 3.2 times from Q1 of 1975 to Q1 of 2021, with an average annual growth rate of 3.2%; From Q1 of 1970 to Q1 of 2021, housing prices in Switzerland, Germany, and Japan increased by 4.8 times, 3.6 times, and 2.7 times cumulatively, with an average annual growth rate of 3.5%, 3.0%, and 2.6%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eeac7b4ce1943e6a27a61f1ad0644753\" tg-width=\"967\" tg-height=\"681\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b27a668cefa0b6a8cb027f216644c95b\" tg-width=\"966\" tg-height=\"695\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><b>With the deepening of economic and financial globalization, the linkage of global housing price trends has gradually increased.</b>For example, house prices in the four Nordic countries fell in the middle and late 1980s, in Japan and South Korea in the early 1990s, in Southeast Asia in 1997, and in global real estate in 2007.<b>Judging from the trend of housing prices, 23 economies in the past 51 years can be roughly divided into four categories:</b></p><p><b>First, there are four economies in which house prices basically continue to rise and the adjustment range is small during the period, including Australia, New Zealand, Canada and France.</b>Since 1970, the cumulative decline in any downward cycle of the above four countries has not exceeded 9%. Among them, Australia, New Zealand, Canada and other three countries have not experienced two consecutive years of decline; France made three significant adjustments in 1992-1995, 2008-2009, and 2011-2015, but the cumulative decline in the three times never exceeded 7%.</p><p><b>Second, there are 14 economies in which house prices have fallen sharply but have risen higher than the previous high in the later period, including Britain, the United States, Switzerland, the Netherlands, South Africa, Norway, Hong Kong, Malaysia and Thailand.</b>For example, house prices in the Netherlands plummeted by nearly 30% in 1979-1982 and more than 19% in 2008-2013, in South Africa by 11% in 1984-1986, in Finland by 37% in 1990-1992, in Switzerland by 22% in 1990-1998, in Malaysia and Thailand by more than 11% in 1997-1998 and 1998-1999 respectively, in Hong Kong, China by more than 60% in 1998-2003, in the United States by more than 30% in 2007-2011, and in the United Kingdom by nearly 11% in 1990-1992 and 13% in 2008-2009. House prices in the above economies have continued to rise after a sharp decline, and now they have exceeded their previous highs.</p><p><b>Third, there are four economies where the housing price bubble burst in the early stage and is still below the high point, including Japan, Spain, Ireland and Italy.</b>Although times and countries are different, the accumulation of previous real estate bubbles has been stimulated by excess liquidity and low interest rates without exception, while the collapse of previous real estate bubbles has been related to monetary tightening and rate hike. Housing prices in Japan, Spain, Ireland, and Italy peaked in 1990, 2007, 2007, and 2008 respectively. Housing prices in the first three countries have rebounded slightly in recent years. In 2020, housing prices in the above four countries are only equivalent to 63.4% and 84.7% of the peak respectively., 84.8%, 83.2%.</p><p><b>Fourth, there is only one economy in Germany where the trend of housing prices is basically stable and the increase is generally small.</b>Since 1970, German housing prices have experienced three relatively large rising cycles: a cumulative increase of nearly 1.8 times from 1971 to 1981, a cumulative increase of 35.1% from 1987 to 1994, and a cumulative increase of 67.6% in Q1 from 2009 to 2021; In any downward cycle, the cumulative decline has never exceeded 10%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c9b91523fdf9fd2bb5f4d451baedf75\" tg-width=\"981\" tg-height=\"686\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3be2e050170ea5199c62f80800d0fb6f\" tg-width=\"967\" tg-height=\"698\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d4915716ab9826f9a5e64f8c294cdcd6\" tg-width=\"968\" tg-height=\"694\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/411177ccdf3f9b3d00fb572c5672563e\" tg-width=\"967\" tg-height=\"689\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><b>1.2 The long-term trend of local currency housing prices is related to economic growth, population changes, money supply and housing system</b></p><p><b>The long-term trend differences of local currency housing prices in different economies can be explained in four aspects: the income effect brought by economic growth, the population effect caused by changes in total population and structure, the monetary illusion brought by money supply, and the supply and demand pattern influenced by housing system.</b>Real estate has both consumer goods attributes (housing demand, including rigid demand and improvement demand) and financial attributes (investment speculative demand, which can be leveraged), so house prices not only depend on supply and demand (population and residents' income, land supply), but also closely related to money supply. From the operation experience of the global real estate market, in the absence of disputes, plagues, natural disasters, economic and financial crises and other impacts, a country's housing prices have risen for a long time with economic development.</p><p><b>From 1970 to Q1 of 2021, the average annual growth rate of local currency housing prices and the local currency nominal GDP growth rate of 23 economies were 6.3% and 7.5% respectively. The two were relatively close, and the correlation coefficient was 0.52;</b>Excluding Thailand and Malaysia, the correlation coefficient of 21 economies is 0.54; Excluding Thailand, Malaysia, South Korea, and Hong Kong, China, the correlation coefficient of 19 economies reaches 0.87. Nominal GDP can be decomposed into per capita constant price GDP, population, GDP deflator, and the housing system that affects the supply and demand pattern. The four factors can better explain the long-term trend differences of housing prices in different economies.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a7af05caae4ef416d72059040f7bd4d3\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"653\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><b>1) The income effect brought by economic growth. The growth of constant price GDP reflects the real economic growth after excluding prices. The growth of per capita constant price GDP in local currency means that the actual purchasing power of residents increases and the demand for real estate increases.</b>In Q1 from 1970 to 2021, the average annual growth rate of local currency at constant prices in 23 economies was 2.7% and the median was 2.2%. The average annual growth rate of local currency at constant prices per capita was 1.9% and the median was 1.6% (The calculation of data for some economies starts when housing price data is available, and Spain, Hong Kong, South Korea, Malaysia, and Thailand starts in 1971, 1979, 1975, 1988, and 1991 respectively). Among them, South Korea's per capita GDP at constant local currency has an average annual growth rate of 5.3%, Ireland, Hong Kong, Malaysia and Thailand have an average annual growth rate of more than 2.5%, other economies are mostly below 2%, and South Africa has only 0.2%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/de3b1d4d783da6689b6041becd9503e2\" tg-width=\"806\" tg-height=\"577\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><b>2) Population effects caused by changes in total population and structure.</b>The impact of population on housing prices at the economic level is mainly reflected in the following three aspects:</p><p><b>First, changes in the total population affect housing prices.</b>Changes in total population include natural growth and transnational population mobility. Generally speaking, changes in population size are directly proportional to housing demand. According to World Bank data, the global fertility rate in 2019 was 2.4, of which the total fertility rates of high-income, middle-high-income, low-middle-income, and low-income economies were 1.6, 1.8, 2.7, and 4.6 respectively. The fertility rates of high-income and middle-high-income economies are no longer enough to make up for the generational replacement of the population. But high-income economies have attracted large cross-border inflows of people. From 1960 to 2020, the cumulative net inflow of population from high-income economies was 140 million, and the proportions from middle-high, middle-low, and low-income economies were 26.4%, 50.0%, and 27.1% respectively. The living standard of the population in middle-and high-income economies is close to that in high-income economies, and the migration motivation is not strong; Low-income economies have strong migration motivation, but it is difficult to bear the migration cost; Low-and middle-income economies have strong migration motivation and can bear the migration cost. According to United Nations statistics, Germany's population once decreased by about 2.3 million from 2004 to 2011, and then due to immigration's return to growth. Japan's population began to grow negatively in 2009, and Italy's population began to grow negatively in 2016.</p><p><b>Second, demographic changes affect housing prices.</b>Demographic changes such as the main home buyers aged 20-50 and the size of households will lead to changes in housing demand. In terms of household size, due to the delayed marriage age, the increase of unmarried rate and divorce rate, the low fertility rate, the prolonged life expectancy, the aging population, population mobility, etc., the global household size is becoming miniaturized, which increases a certain housing demand. From 1960 to 2015, the size of households in the United States dropped from 3.33 to 2.54, and that in Japan dropped from 4.14 to 2.39; Furthermore, South Korea decreased from 4.78 to 2.73 in 1980-2015. In terms of the main home buyers, the population aged 20-49 in the United States continues to grow, and Japan, South Korea, and the United Kingdom peaked in 1996, 2004, and 2011 respectively. Changes in the size of the main home buyers have a very significant impact on the real estate market.</p><p><b>Third, the population affects housing prices through economic growth.</b>The demographic dividend is an important source of the high-speed economic growth of many catch-up economies in the past. After the demographic dividend disappears, the economy often turns to medium or low-speed growth.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/32d6b01bca24010940600884b4f55b7e\" tg-width=\"968\" tg-height=\"691\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/373bd33ed383da37d0380f150e39c70b\" tg-width=\"968\" tg-height=\"687\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><b>3) Monetary illusion brought about by money supply.</b>From the international experience, in the process of economic development, most countries have varying degrees of over-issuance of currency, which leads to changes in asset prices. Generally speaking, a high growth rate of broad money supply leads to a high inflation. From 1970 to 2021Q1, the average annual GDP deflator of the 23 economies was 4.3% and the median was 4.0%, which was not only close to the average annual growth rate of housing prices of 6.3% in the 23 economies in absolute terms, but also The fluctuations are relatively consistent. For example, in Q1 from 1970 to 2021, South Africa's broad money increased by 532.5 times. Under the substantial excess of money, South Africa's nominal GDP increased by 390.2 times, its real GDP only increased by 1.9 times, the GDP deflator increased by 130.2 times, and house prices increased by 101.6 times; U.S. broad money increased by 33.2 times, nominal GDP increased by 19.0 times, real GDP increased by 2.8 times, GDP deflator increased by 5.2 times, and house prices increased by 13 times. However, over-issuance of currency can easily breed asset price bubbles such as real estate, and in extreme cases, it may even lead to economic crises, such as the real estate bubble in Japan in 1990s and the subprime mortgage crisis in the United States in 2007.</p><p><b>Due to the rapid growth of broad money in emerging economies, the increase of house prices in local currency is greater than that in developed economies.</b>According to World Bank data, the average annual growth rate of broad money in nine representative emerging economies such as India and Mexico from 2001 to 2020 was 13.7%, which was significantly higher than the 5.3% in six representative developed economies such as Britain, the United States and Japan. According to BIS statistics, the average annual growth rate of housing prices in emerging economies was 6.8% from 2010 to 2020, exceeding the average annual growth rate of housing prices in developed economies of 3.8%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d7906272da5dc3fe1c22ea5aa0f4e99e\" tg-width=\"967\" tg-height=\"683\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><b>4) The supply and demand pattern affected by the housing system.</b>Housing system is the orientation of a country's real estate market. A good housing system can stabilize housing prices for a long time and support the development of the real economy. A bad housing system may cause housing prices to soar and plummet, weaken or even hollow out the real economy. The key to the long-term stability of Germany's housing prices lies in the design of its housing-oriented housing system. The three pillars are: neutral and prudent monetary policy and housing financial system, a tax system that encourages residents to hold housing for a long time and cracks down on speculation, and a rental system that protects tenants' rights and interests and encourages long-term renting. At present, Singapore has formed a dual supply system with HDB flats as the mainstay and private houses as the supplement. The supply structure presents a ladder distribution of \"low-rent housing-low-price housing-improved HDB flats-private houses\", and the housing ownership rate exceeds 90%, basically realizing home ownership.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/32a2ee39af0d3a9fd9990c2373fa67d0\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"646\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><b>The price increase of US $1.3 is significantly different from that of local currency</b></p><p><b>In terms of U.S. dollars, from 1970 to Q1 2021, the increase in housing prices in 23 economies changed significantly, and there is a certain correlation between the increase in U.S. dollar housing prices and the growth of U.S. dollar nominal GDP. If an economy's currency excess is more serious than that of the United States, the currency will depreciate against the US dollar. Therefore, a sharp rise in local currency house prices does not mean a sharp rise in US dollar house prices, and it does not necessarily have investment value globally.</b>According to the increase of US dollar house prices, it can be roughly divided into four categories: First, the cumulative increase exceeds 50 times and the average annual growth exceeds 8%, only one in New Zealand. Second, the cumulative increase is 25-35 times and the average annual growth rate is 7%-7.5%. There are three economies: the United Kingdom, the Netherlands and Spain. Third, the cumulative increase is 10-20 times and the average annual growth rate is 5%-6.9%. There are 14 economies including Ireland, Australia, Norway, Belgium, Italy and Japan. Fourth, the cumulative growth rate is less than 9 times and the average annual growth rate is less than 5%. There are five economies: Germany, Malaysia, South Africa, Thailand and South Korea. Compared with the increase in local currency house prices, the biggest change is in South Africa. From 1970 to 2021Q1, the increase in local currency house prices was as high as 110.5 times, but the increase in US dollar house prices was only 3.8 times. In addition, the price of local currency in Switzerland increased by only 4.8 times, but the price of US dollar reached 25.9 times; Italian currency house prices rose 34.7 times, but US dollar house prices shrank to 12.1 times; German local currency house prices rose 3.6 times, and US dollar house prices rose 8.8 times.</p><p><b>From the correlation coefficient,</b>The correlation coefficient between US dollar house price growth and US dollar nominal GDP growth in 23 economies is only 0.20, which is weak. However, if South Korea, where US dollar nominal GDP has increased by 75.3 times and US dollar house price has increased by only 0.7 times, and Ireland, where US dollar nominal GDP has increased by 99.6 times and US dollar house price has increased by only 28.7 times, the correlation coefficient of the remaining 21 economies is 0.77; This shows that from the perspective of global real estate asset allocation, the positive correlation between the growth of US dollar house prices and the growth of US dollar nominal GDP in an economy is generally established. The difference in the long-term trend of US dollar house prices in different economies can also be decomposed by corresponding factors similar to the trend of local currency house prices in the previous period. The difference is that the exchange rate mechanism eliminates the currency excessive issuance factor of an economy relative to the United States.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3cfaeece0e6f1a8b3cdfe7ae7493e4fc\" tg-width=\"968\" tg-height=\"692\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><b>1.4 Global housing prices have increased significantly under the epidemic</b></p><p><b>In the past year, house prices in major economies have risen by more than 7% on average, Turkey by 32% and New Zealand by more than 20%.</b>According to KnightFrank data, house prices in Turkey rose by 32% from Q1 2020 to Q1 2021, topping the list; New Zealand, which was followed closely, rose 22%; Luxembourg ranked third, with an increase of 16.6%; Slovakia ranked fourth, with an increase of 15.5%; The United States ranked fifth, with a 13% increase, the largest increase since 2005. However, the growth rate of major Asian countries is lower than the global average, and Singapore's house price has the largest increase of 6.1%; Japan, which was followed closely, rose 5.7%; China's house prices rose by 4.3%.</p><p><b>During the epidemic, the large increase in housing prices was due to the implementation of quantitative easing policies in various countries and the release of improvement demand accumulated by the epidemic.</b>1) From the perspective of monetary policy, in order to stimulate economic recovery under the impact of the epidemic, central banks of various countries have implemented quantitative easing policies. On the one hand, under quantitative easing's policy, there has been more liquidity in the market, and it has reached the hands of the people through corporate bailout funds and unemployment benefits. At the same time, under the loose monetary policy, mortgage interest rates have been reduced. For example, the 30-year fixed mortgage interest rate anchored by the American Mortgage Bankers Association has reached a record low of 3.08%. On the other hand, the currency devaluation brought about by quantitative easing's policies has made people eager to find value-preserving assets, and real estate with value-preserving and appreciating attributes has become the first choice for investment. 2) From the perspective of demand, the backlog of improvement demand during the epidemic will be released after the epidemic is controlled to a certain extent. Secondly, \"black swan\" events such as the epidemic have caused more and more investors to try to reduce risks by diversifying the allocation of assets, and owning a second home has become the choice of more high-net-worth individuals. 3) From the perspective of supply, loose monetary policy has triggered a general rise in asset prices, and rising raw material prices have increased construction costs. At the same time, the epidemic has led to a shortage of workers, exacerbating the tight supply of raw materials, further pushing up raw material prices, and in turn pushing up housing prices.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/834288b9b8894d0402b3c3f3f5cd3a38\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"639\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>2 Which region within a country has the largest increase in house prices: the metropolitan area with population inflow</p><p><b>2.1 UK: London house prices have risen 113 times in 53 years, and Inner London has increased even more</b></p><p>There are three areas of London: the City of London, Greater London, and the London metropolitan area. The City of London is the City of London, with a small area. Generally speaking, London refers to the Greater London area, including 319 square kilometers of inner London and 1,254 square kilometers of outer London, with a total land area of 1,573 square kilometers, accounting for 0.6% of the UK; The London metropolitan area consists of Greater London and surrounding areas. Due to urban planning problems and other prominent diseases in big cities, the British government once controlled the population of London, especially inner London, moved industries out after World War II, and built a large number of new cities. From 1941 to 1991, the population of London dropped from 8.62 million to 6.39 million, and then rose to 8.82 million in 2017, currently accounting for 13.4% of the British population. However, under the influence of economy, the population around London has been concentrated for a long time. From 1931 to 2001, the population in southeastern England increased from less than 13 million to more than 18 million, accounting for 27.5% to 31.1%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/02ca4c76a629e8fce4ea2dff163fba65\" tg-width=\"966\" tg-height=\"708\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><b>In the past 53 years, house prices in Greater London have increased by 113 times, far exceeding the average increase of house prices in Britain and England (71 and 81 times), and the nominal GDP increase in Britain (51 times).</b>According to data from the Office of National Statistics (ONS), in the United Kingdom, from 1968 to March 2021, house prices in Greater London rose from 4,400 pounds/unit to 500,000 pounds/unit, and in England rose from 3,400 pounds/unit to 275,000 pounds/unit, nationwide from 3,600 pounds/unit to 256,000 pounds/unit. House prices in London have increased by 113 times, higher than 71 times nationwide and 81 times in England. During the same period (1967-2020), the nominal GDP of the United Kingdom increased by 50.7 times, with an average annual growth rate of 7.7%, and the increase in house prices significantly outperformed the nominal GDP growth.</p><p><b>Looking at the stages, the increase of house prices in Greater London, England and Britain was very close before 1994, but the fluctuation increased significantly after 1995, especially after the global financial crisis in 2008.</b>From 1968 to 1994, house prices in Greater London, England and the United Kingdom increased by 15.0 times, 14.7 times and 14.6 times respectively, with small differences; But from then until March 2018, the increase in house prices was significantly differentiated, which were 5.3 times, 3.5 times and 3 times respectively. Affected by the 2008 financial crisis, house prices in Greater London, England and the United Kingdom fell by 16.6%, 15.0% and 14.9% year-on-year in April 2009; After that, under the background of monetary stimulus quantitative easing, house prices gradually picked up, with average annual growth rates of 7.5%, 4.5% and 4.1% by March 2018, respectively.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/65731004c8f9a4f7c0bc36cc5cfb211a\" tg-width=\"970\" tg-height=\"679\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><b>From the inside of London metropolitan area, house prices in Greater London have increased by more than 6.5 times in the past 26 years, ranking first in the region, and the surrounding areas have increased by less than 6.0%.</b>In the three years from January 1995 to 2021, house prices in Greater London increased by 6.7 times, while the increases in the surrounding areas of Kent, Hertfordshire, Essex, Windsor and Maidenhead and Surrey were 5.5, 5.7, 5.5, 5.2 and 5.4 times respectively. The increase in house prices in Greater London was significantly higher than that in the surrounding areas. In addition, house prices in Birmingham, the second largest city in the UK, rose only 4.6 times during this period, which was significantly lower than the increase in London and surrounding areas.</p><p><b>From the inside of Greater London, in the past 26 years, house prices in the core areas of London have increased by more than 7 times, while those in outer London have increased by less than 6.5 times.</b>From January 1995 to March 2021, house prices in Inner London rose from 78,300 pounds/unit to 594,500 pounds/unit, an increase of 7.6 times; House prices in outer London rose from 73,000 pounds/unit to 451,000 pounds/unit, an increase of 6.2 times. At present, the most expensive house prices in London are Kensington and Chelsea (1,227,200 pounds/unit), followed by City of Westminster (936,800 pounds/unit), which are 6.7 times and 7.0 times higher than in January 1995 respectively.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d53232626f2d5e64d75a676f520e515f\" tg-width=\"968\" tg-height=\"692\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e1e929dc297e8b1905401a6ed5999242\" tg-width=\"967\" tg-height=\"697\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><b>2.2 France: Housing prices in Paris have increased 44 times in 55 years, exceeding that in surrounding areas</b></p><p>Paris has three areas: Paris (or Little Paris), Greater Paris (including three suburban provinces) and Paris Region (including four outer suburban provinces, also known as \"Île de France\"), with land areas of 105, 761 and 12001 square kilometers respectively, of which the land area of Paris Region accounts for 1.8% of France. With industrial agglomeration, the French population has continued to gather in Paris and surrounding areas for a long time. From 1876 to 2014, the population of the Paris region basically continued to increase from 3.32 million to 12.03 million, the population share increased from 8.6% to 18.8%, and the economic share increased from 28.4% in 1990 to 30.4% in 2014. During this period, for the purpose of controlling the population and treating diseases in big cities, the city of Paris experienced a long period of decline. From 1931 to 1999, it continued to decline from 2.89 million to 2.13 million, and then rose to 2.18 million in 2018.</p><p><b>In the past 55 years, house prices in Paris have increased by 43.7 times in 55 years, significantly exceeding the average increase of house prices in France (26.6 times) and the increase of nominal GDP in France (29.5 times), with average annual growth rates of 7.2%, 6.2% and 6.4% respectively.</b>Prior to this, from 1945 to 1965, affected by post-war reconstruction, baby boom and large currency excess, house prices in Paris and France soared 54.1 and 38.3 times respectively, with an average annual growth rate of 22.2% and 20.1%, but they still lagged behind nominal GDP. Average annual growth rate (51.2% in 1950-1965).</p><p><b>Look at it in stages,</b>After 1966, the trend of house prices in Paris can be divided into four stages: 1) From 1966 to 1990, the period of rapid rise in house prices. During this period, housing prices in Paris, housing prices in France, and nominal GDP in France increased by 10.7%, 9.3%, and 10.6% annually. 2) From 1992 to 1997, the period of house price decline. Due to the strong real estate speculation in Paris around 1985-1990 and the excessive increase in house prices (among which the increase in four consecutive years from 1987 to 1990 exceeded 17%), house prices in Paris began to fall sharply. During this period, housing prices in Paris, French housing prices, and French nominal GDP grew at an average annual rate of-6.1%,-0.4%, and 3.8%. By the end of 1997, housing prices in Paris had plummeted to 69% in 1991. 3) 1998-2015, a period of fluctuating growth. During this period, housing prices in Paris, housing prices in France, and nominal GDP in France increased by 7.2%, 5.0%, and 3.0% annually. Among them, house prices in Paris fell continuously from 2013 to 2015. However, after 2015, house prices in Paris ushered in a wave of large increases.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c239d397cf1aeafa440025897669e859\" tg-width=\"968\" tg-height=\"695\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><b>The increase in housing prices in Paris ranks first in the Paris region. From Q4 of 1997 to Q1 of 2021, the increase in housing prices in Paris exceeded 3.5 times, which is significantly higher than that in the three suburban provinces and the four outer suburban provinces.</b>As the land area of Paris is small (105 square kilometers), which is slightly larger than the sum of the areas of Dongcheng and Xicheng districts in Beijing (93 square kilometers), we no longer analyze the internal housing prices in Paris, but regard Paris as the core area of Paris Region, and analyze the trend differences between it and other areas of Paris Region. According to data from the French Statistics Office (INSEE), from Q4 of 1997 to Q1 of 2021, house prices in Paris increased by 3.7 times, significantly exceeding the 2.5 times of the three suburban provinces and the 1.6 times of the four outer suburban provinces. During this period, France's nominal GDP increased by 0.8 times. House prices in the three suburban provinces of Hauts de Seine, Seine St Denis and Val de Marne increased by 2.6 times, 2.5 times and 2.4 times respectively. House prices in the four outer suburbs of Yvelines, Val d 'Oise, Seine and Marne and Essonne increased by 1.8 times, 1.7 times, 1.5 times and 1.5 times respectively.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef31ec3f0316c99a2e4b77fd99eac928\" tg-width=\"971\" tg-height=\"678\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><b>2.3 United States: Housing prices in New York City have risen 9 times in 46 years, and Queens has performed better</b></p><p>New York has multiple meanings: new york city, new york metropolitan area, new york joint statistical area, etc. Among them, New York City has a land area of 789 square kilometers and a population of 8.55 million in 2015; The New York-Newark-Jersey City Metropolitan Statistical Area (NY-NJ-PAMSA) covers an area of about 17,000 square kilometers, with a population of 20.18 million in 2015; The New York-Newark Combined Statistical Area consists of the New York metropolitan area and adjacent metropolitan areas, with a population of 23.72 million in 2015. From the perspective of population, due to the shift of the economic center of gravity of the United States to the west coast and south coast, although the population of new york basically continued to grow from 1950 to 2015, the growth rate of 84% was much less than that of Los Angeles, which made the population proportion of new york drop significantly. During this period, due to suburbanization of the population and the decline of manufacturing, the population of new york decreased from 7.89 million to 7.02 million from 1950 to 1980; Later, due to urban renewal and industrial transformation and upgrading, it rose to 8.55 million in 2015, and the population dropped slightly to 8.42 million in 2019.</p><p><b>In the past 46 years, house prices in new york have increased by more than 9 times, higher than the average level in the United States, but lower than the increase in house prices around new york and Los Angeles.</b>According to statistics from the U.S. Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA), from 1975 to 2021 Q1, the United States, New York City, New York-Jersey-White Plains Subdivision (one of the New York metropolitan area subdivisions) (1976-2021 Q1), Los Angeles-Long Beach-House prices in the Glendale subdivision (one of the Los Angeles metropolitan area subdivisions) increased by 8.1 times, 9.9 times, 12.9 times, and 19.7 times respectively, with average annual growth rates of 4.9%, 5.3%, 6.0%, and 6.8% respectively. Although the price increase of new york-Jersey-White Plains subdivision is not as good as that of Los Angeles-Long Beach-Glendale subdivision, it is still significantly higher than the U.S. average. In addition, during this period, the nominal GDP of the United States increased by 13.7 times, with an average annual growth rate of 6.0%, and M2 increased by 20.5 times, with an average annual growth rate of 6.9%. This means that housing prices in New York City underperformed the nominal GDP and M2 of the United States during the same period, while the Los Angeles-Long Beach-Glendale subdivision outperformed the nominal GDP of the United States, close to M2.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3365bc98f3d57e2abfa2e44b8cd57d69\" tg-width=\"970\" tg-height=\"685\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/22a2c22f165e582eba667aa4ba1eed6f\" tg-width=\"966\" tg-height=\"687\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><b>Within the new york metropolitan area, house prices in the new york subdivision have increased more than four times in the past 35 years, ranking second among the four major subdivisions in the new york metropolitan area.</b>In addition to the New York-Jersey City-White Plains subdivision, the New York metropolitan area also includes three subdivisions: NassauCounty-Suffolk County, Dutchess County-Putnam County, and Newark. The trends of housing prices in the four major sub-districts are basically the same. Among them, from 1986 to Q1 2021, the Nassau County-Suffolk County sub-district increased by 4.3 times, with an average annual increase of 4.9%, ranking first; New York-Jersey City-White Plains Subdivision rose 4.1 times, with an average annual increase of 4.6%, ranking second; Newark subdivision and DutchessCounty-Putnam County subdivision (1986-2018 Q1) rose by 3.4 times and 2.6 times respectively, with average annual increases of 4.3% and 4.6% respectively.</p><p><b>Within new york, house prices in Manhattan have nearly doubled in the past 30 years, which is higher than the level of new york.</b>From 1991 to Q1 2021, house prices in Manhattan, New York City increased by 1.9 times, with an average annual increase of 3.7%, and house prices in Queens (1991-2020) increased by 2.8 times, with an average annual increase of 4.7%. During this period, house prices in New York City and New York subdivisions increased by 1.8 times and 2.0 times respectively, with average annual growth rates of 3.5% and 3.8% respectively.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d564c533cc7c696dd75bfb7fc8caa8b\" tg-width=\"970\" tg-height=\"699\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><b>2.4 Japan: Six core cities have increased 210 times in 36 years</b></p><p>Tokyo has three areas: Tokyo Metropolitan Area, Tokyo Metropolitan Area, including Chiba Prefecture, Saitama Prefecture and Tokyo Circle of Kanagawa Prefecture, with land areas of 627, 2188 and 13,558 square kilometers respectively. The land area of Tokyo Circle accounts for 3.6% of Japan's, with a population of 36.94 million in 2020, accounting for 29.3% of Japan's, and the current regional GDP accounts for about 1/3 of Japan's.</p><p>Japanese population mobility is divided into two stages: before 1974, the national population basically continued to gather in Tokyo Circle, Osaka Circle and Nagoya Circle. From 1884 to 1973, in addition to the impact of the war, the population of Tokyo increased from 4.06 million to 26.07 million, accounting for 23.9% from 10.8%; The population of Osaka Circle increased from 3.92 million to 16.36 million, accounting for 10.5% to 15.0%; The population of Nagoya Circle increased from 3.11 million to 9.18 million, accounting for 8.3% to 8.4%. After that, it turned to one pole concentration in Tokyo circle, while the inflow and outflow of population in Nagoya circle were basically balanced, and the long-term net outflow in Osaka circle; By 2016, the population of Tokyo Circle, Osaka Circle and Nagoya Circle was 36.29 million, 18.31 million and 11.34 million respectively, accounting for 28.6%, 14.4% and 8.9% respectively. During this period, the population growth of Osaka Circle and Nagoya Circle was mainly due to natural growth. The population growth of Tokyo stagnated from 1970 to 1997, mainly due to the industrial transfer and population emigration in Tokyo metropolitan area, but the population of Tokyo's non-metropolitan area and Tokyo circle increased significantly.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d574585fc9099cc15439a0835d5fb4e1\" tg-width=\"968\" tg-height=\"688\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><b>Land prices in Japan rose 82 times 36 years before the bubble burst, and the increase in six core cities was as high as 210 times.</b>Before the bursting of the real estate bubble in 1991, Japan's land prices continued to rise except for the adjustment in 1975, rising 82 times from 1955 to 1991, exceeding the nominal GDP increase of 55 times during this period; Among them, the land price of six core cities increased by 210 times, and that of non-core cities increased by 78 times. Looking at stages, from 1955 to 1974, land prices in six core cities including Tokyo, Yokohama, Nagoya, Kyoto, Osaka and Kobe increased by 40.6 times, with an average annual rate of 21.7%, while other cities increased by 29.6 times, with an average annual rate of 19.7%. During the same period, the nominal GDP increased by 15 times, with an average annual rate of 15.7%. From 1975 to 1991, land prices in six core cities increased by 4.5 times, with an average annual average of 11.2%, and land prices in other cities increased by 1.7 times, with an average annual average of 6.4%. During the same period, nominal GDP increased by 2.2 times, with an average annual average of 7.5%.</p><p>Japan's housing prices continued to rise after the adjustment in 1975, mainly due to economic growth and the support of the main home buyers. However, due to the rapid rise in the later period, the sharp decline in the birth population, the peak of the main home buyers in the 1990s, and the wrong response of the Japanese government, the real estate bubble burst in the early 1990s. After that, the land price in Japan continued to adjust until 2005. In 2017, the land price in Japan was only 47.1% of the peak. Land prices in six core cities fell from 1992 to 2005. After experiencing a short-term increase from 2006 to 2008, they fell again from 2009 to 2012 due to the global financial crisis. They began to rise in 2013 and have only been equivalent to 35.3% of the peak in 1991; Due to population outflow, land prices in non-core cities in Japan have been falling since 1992. In 2017, land prices were equivalent to 47.5% of the peak in 1991.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b856c3f9e7ac62406c37642cf3647a60\" tg-width=\"967\" tg-height=\"689\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><b>The trend of land price in Tokyo is basically consistent with that of Japan as a whole, but the peak was in 1990, one year earlier than that of Japan as a whole. From 1976 to 1990, it rose 3.4 times, with an average annual average of 11.1%; After that, it continued to fall until 2005, and in 2014 it stopped falling and rebounded ahead of the whole country.</b>Housing prices in Tokyo and Osaka peaked in 1990, while land prices in Nagoya and local areas peaked in 1991 and 1992 respectively. From 1976 to the peak of housing prices, land prices in Tokyo, Osaka, Nagoya, and local areas increased by 3.4, 3.9, 2.0, and 0.9 times respectively, with an average annual growth rate of 11.1%, 12.0%, 7.7%, and 4.0% respectively; Especially before the burst of the housing price bubble, the land price in Tokyo soared by 0.95 times from 1987 to 1988, and the land price in Osaka soared by 1.6 times from 1988 to 1990. From 1976 to 1991, Japan's nominal GDP increased by 1.8 times, with an average annual growth rate of 7.2%, and M2 increased by 2.7 times, with an average annual growth rate of 9.0%.</p><p>After the real estate bubble burst in the early 1990s, the land price in Tokyo dropped sharply until 2005, and began to rise from 2006 to 2008. However, due to the impact of the global financial crisis, it began to adjust again in 2009 and began to rise again in 2014. By 2020, the Tokyo area, Osaka area, Nagoya area, and local land prices will only be 40.7%, 27.8%, 59.0%, and 56.7% of the peak respectively. The reason why the adjustment of land price in Osaka is the most tragic is that it rose the most before the bubble burst and lacked population support.</p><p><b>The land price in the Tokyo Metropolitan Area peaked in 1988, and tripled in the five years before the peak. At the same time, the adjustment was early and the decline stopped quickly. From 2005 to 2020, the cumulative increase exceeded 25%, the highest in the Tokyo area.</b>Land prices in Tokyo and Tokyo metropolitan area peaked in 1988, two years earlier than Tokyo circle and three years earlier than Japan as a whole. In the first five years of the peak, house prices in Tokyo metropolitan area tripled, which was 1.8 times higher than that in Tokyo and 1.2 times higher than that in Tokyo. After peaking, house prices in Tokyo and the Tokyo metropolitan area continued to fall until 2005, then fell from 2009 to 2013, and began to rise in 2014. From 2005 to 2020, housing prices in Tokyo and Tokyo metropolitan areas increased by 13.3% and 27.5% respectively, housing prices in non-districts of Tokyo were basically the same, and housing prices in Tokyo fell by 1.7%. In 2016, housing prices in Tokyo, districts and non-metropolitan areas were equivalent to 42.7%, 46.7% and 38.8% of their peaks respectively, which was very close to 40.7% in Tokyo circle.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/befe38251db05984d0243ae602871331\" tg-width=\"967\" tg-height=\"685\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1a8bad47d30fee108ac396d9cb7ee063\" tg-width=\"966\" tg-height=\"695\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>3 Conclusion: In the past 51 years, real estate in metropolitan areas has outperformed the money printing press and promoted new housing reform</p><p><b>1) From a global perspective, a country's real estate market depends on: economic growth, demographic changes, money supply, and housing system. Among them, the first two items are fundamental factors; Excessive currency issuance will lead to a sharp rise in domestic local currency house prices, but not necessarily in US dollar house prices, that is, it may not necessarily have investment value from a global perspective; Housing system is the policy orientation of a country's real estate market.</b></p><p><b>2) Real estate has anti-inflation properties and can partially share the dividends of economic growth. Moreover, real estate in metropolitan areas of most countries is one of the few assets that can outperform money printing presses.</b>From 1970 to Q1 2021, the growth rate of local currency housing prices in 23 economies all exceeded their respective CPI increases to varying degrees. The average annual growth rate of actual housing prices in the United Kingdom, New Zealand, Hong Kong, and Malaysia after deducting CPI can still reach more than 3%, while Japan and Germany after deducting CPI The actual housing price growth is close to 0. Compared with local currency nominal GDP growth, in Q1 1970-2021, only a few of the 23 economies, such as New Zealand, outperformed in housing prices, which means that housing prices in most economies can only partially share the economic growth dividend.</p><p><b>In the long run, global currency excessive issuance is a common phenomenon. The growth rate of broad money is mostly higher than the nominal GDP growth. There are not many assets that can outperform the printing press. Real estate in metropolitan areas of most countries is one of them.</b>From an international perspective, the average annual growth rate of house prices in the UK from 1987 to 2020 was 5.6%. Although it was higher than the average annual growth rate of nominal GDP of 4.5%, it was still lower than the average annual growth rate of broad money of 7.1%; From 1960 to 2020, the average annual growth rate of housing prices in the United States was 4.5%, while the average annual growth rate of nominal GDP and M2 was 6.3% and 7.1% respectively. From the perspective of metropolitan areas, in the United States, from 1975 to 2020, house prices in the New York-Jersey-White Plains subdivision grew at an average annual rate of 5.8%, which was lower than the 6.8% of M2 in the same period and the same as the 5.8% of GDP. In China, the average annual growth rate of broad money supply M2 has been 15% in the past 40 years. Since 1998, the average annual compound growth rate of the average sales price of new housing in China has reached 7.72%, which is nearly 8 percentage points lower than the growth rate of M2 in the same period, while the housing prices in first-tier cities are basically the same as the growth rate of M2.</p><p><b>3) From the perspective of global asset allocation, some emerging economies with great economic growth potential, especially real estate in their core cities, have great investment potential.</b>Generally speaking, the over-issuance of currency in emerging economies is serious, and the increase of house price is also large. However, from the perspective of global asset allocation, investors are concerned about the increase of US dollar house price, that is, the exchange rate change caused by the relative over-issuance of currency is excluded, while the increase of US dollar house price is mainly related to the nominal GDP growth of US dollar, which can decompose factors such as economic growth, demographic change and housing system. Some emerging economies with great economic growth potential may have a \"golden age\" similar to that of China's real estate market in the future, but we need to pay attention to political, legal and other related risks.</p><p><b>4) Build a residential-oriented new housing system in China.</b>The 20-year development of China's real estate shows that short-term regulation can't solve the fundamental contradiction of long-term imbalance between supply and demand, and deepening the reform of housing system is the foundation to realize the stable and healthy development of the real estate market.</p><p><b>First, reform the \"linkage between people and land\" and optimize land supply.</b>At present, the \"man-land linkage\" is to link the number of agricultural migrants settled in with the supply of construction land, which can't solve the contradiction between the inflow of population in hot cities and the tight housing supply. In the future, the newly-added permanent population should be linked to land supply, and the inter-provincial cultivated land occupation and compensation balance should be linked to the increase or decrease of urban and rural land, such as the land sales indicators in northeast and western regions, which can effectively solve the problem of a large amount of waste of land indicators in northeast and western China. Strictly implement the principle of \"linking the inventory de-stocking cycle with land supply\" and optimize the current land supply mode.</p><p><b>The second is to maintain the long-term stability of monetary policy and real estate financial policy.</b>Implement a long-term and stable housing credit financial policy, stabilize the expectations of property buyers, support the demand for rigid and improved housing purchases, and curb speculative demand. Support the reasonable financing needs of real estate enterprises, standardize the use of financing, and prevent excessive financing.</p><p><b>The third is to change the housing supply structure and enrich the main body of supply.</b>At present, China's housing supply system emphasizes sales over leasing, and a multi-subject supply housing system has not yet been established. In the future, the main supply body will change from developers to the government, developers, leasing intermediary companies, long-term rental companies and other multi-party suppliers; The form of supply will also shift from commercial housing to commercial housing, rental housing, shared property housing and other categories. However, the exploration of housing supply structure and the introduction of policies must be adapted to local conditions, and cities with net population outflow should be especially wary of blindly following the trend.</p><p><b>The fourth is to steadily promote the pilot project of property tax.</b>With the end of the era of large-scale development, the land transfer fee has decreased and the tax revenue in the transaction link has decreased in the era of stock housing. It is the general trend to introduce property tax. From international experience, property tax is usually regarded as an important and stable source of local fiscal revenue by mature market economies. The general principle of property tax reform is \"legislation first, full authorization and step-by-step advancement\". \"Legislation first\" means legislation first and then levy; \"Full authorization\" means authorizing all localities to pilot projects according to local conditions, not across the board; the property tax itself is the local main tax according to international experience; \"Distributed promotion\" is active and steady promotion, and we should strive for a mature scheme and do a good job in guiding social expectations.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://www.gelonghui.com/p/481029\">格隆汇</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c3c5822c22b6cfd1d0ae2625b7bc085e","relate_stocks":{"515060":"房地产ETF基金","DRN":"房地产指数ETF-Direxion三倍做多","ARL":"美国房地产投资"},"source_url":"https://www.gelonghui.com/p/481029","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6b8fa6424aebe95f6781d04ef17a1852","article_id":"1118683392","content_text":"作者：任泽平团队\n导读\n我们提出了业内广为流传的分析框架：房地产长期看人口、中期看土地、短期看金融。本篇放眼全球房价走势，考察驱动不同经济体和主要大都市圈房价走势的因素及规律。\n不同经济体本币房价长期走势差异可解释为四方面：经济增长带来的收入效应、人口总量与结构变动引起的人口效应、货币供应带来的货币幻觉、住房制度影响的供求格局。\n近51年，23个经济体房价平均累计上涨29.6倍、年均增长超6%。依据房价涨幅大小，可分为三类：一是南非、新西兰等4个经济体房价累计涨幅在60倍以上和年均增长8.5%-10%；二是房价累计涨幅在5-50倍之间和年均增长5.5%-8%之间的，有爱尔兰、澳大利亚等14个经济体；三是房价累计涨幅在5倍以内和年均增长低于4%的以内的，有泰国、瑞士等5个经济体。\n疫情期间房价涨幅较大，其源于各国实施量化宽松政策、疫情积压的改善需求释放等。近一年主要经济体房价平均上涨超7%，土耳其上涨32%，新西兰上涨22%，而亚洲主要国家涨幅低于全球平均，新加坡房价涨幅最大，为6.1%；中国房价涨幅为4.3%。\n一国内部人口流入的大都市圈房价涨幅最大。伦敦房价53年上涨113倍，内伦敦涨幅更大；日本地价在泡沫破灭前36年上涨82倍，六个核心城市涨幅更是高达210倍。\n我们呼吁推动新一轮房改（新房改）迫在眉睫，以人地挂钩、控制货币和房产税为核心加快构建房地产长效机制，促进房地产市场长期平稳健康发展，还有最后十年时间窗口。\n正文\n1  不同经济体房价涨幅差异：经济增长、人口变化、货币供应、住房制度\n1.1 近51年23个经济体房价走势差异明显\n1970年Q1-2021年Q1，23个经济体房价平均累计上涨29.6倍、年均增长超6%。依据房价涨幅大小，可分为三类：\n一是南非、新西兰、西班牙、英国等4个经济体房价累计涨幅在60倍以上和年均增长8.5%-10%。南非、新西兰房价累计涨幅分别高达110.5倍、86.9倍、年均增长分别为9.7%、9.2%，分别位居23个经济体中第一、第二；英国房价累计涨幅62.3倍，年均增长8.6%，位居23经济体中第三；西班牙1979年Q1-2021年Q1房价累计涨幅60.2倍，年均增长8.6%。\n二是房价累计涨幅在5-50倍之间和年均增长5.5%-8%之间的，有爱尔兰、澳大利亚、中国香港、挪威、意大利、加拿大、瑞典、法国、丹麦、荷兰、芬兰、马来西亚、美国、比利时14个经济体。爱尔兰、澳大利亚房价累计上涨48.1倍、47.3倍，年均增长均为7.9%；中国香港1979年Q1-2021年Q1年房价累计上涨19.9倍，年均增长7.7%；马来西亚1988年Q1-2021年Q1年房价累计上涨5.1倍，年均增长5.6%；其他10国涨幅在15-40倍之间，年均增速在5.5%-7.5%。\n三是房价累计涨幅在5倍以内和年均增长低于4%的以内的，有泰国、瑞士、韩国、德国、日本5个经济体。其中泰国1991Q1-2021Q1年上涨1.8倍，年均增长3.5%；韩国1975年Q1-2021年Q1房价累计上涨3.2倍、年均增长3.2%;1970年Q1-2021年Q1，瑞士、德国、日本房价累计上涨4.8倍、3.6倍、2.7倍，年均增长3.5%、3.0%、2.6%。\n\n\n随着经济金融全球化深入推进，全球房价走势联动性逐渐增强。比如，1980年代中后期北欧四国房价下跌，1990年代初日韩房价下跌，1997年东南亚房价下跌，2007年全球房地产下跌。从房价走势看，近51年23个经济体可大致分为四类：\n一是房价基本持续上行、期间调整幅度小的经济体，有澳大利亚、新西兰、加拿大、法国等4个。1970年以来上述4国任何一次下行周期中累计下跌幅度均未超过9%。其中，澳大利亚、新西兰、加拿大等3国未曾出现连续两年下跌的情况；法国在1992-1995年、2008-2009年、2011-2015年三次明显调整，但三次累计跌幅均未曾超过7%。\n二是房价曾大幅下挫但后期上行超过之前高点的经济体，有英国、美国、瑞士、荷兰、南非、挪威、中国香港、马来西亚、泰国等14个。比如，荷兰房价在1979-1982年暴跌近30%、2008-2013年大跌超19%，南非房价在1984-1986年下跌11%，芬兰房价在1990-1992年暴跌37%，瑞士房价在1990-1998大跌22%，马来西亚、泰国分别在1997-1998、1998-1999年累计下跌均超过11%，中国香港在1998-2003年累计暴跌超60%，美国房价在2007-2011年大跌超30%，英国房价在1990-1992年下跌近11%、2008-2009年下跌超13%。上述经济体房价在大幅下跌后继续向上，现均已超过之前高点。\n三是前期房价泡沫破灭、至今仍不及高点的经济体，有日本、西班牙、爱尔兰、意大利等4个。虽然时代和国别不同，但历次房地产泡沫堆积无一例外受到流动性过剩和低利率的刺激，而历次房地产泡沫崩溃则都跟货币收紧和加息有关。日本、西班牙、爱尔兰、意大利房价分别在1990、2007、2007、2008年见顶，其中前三个国家房价近几年稍有反弹，2020年上述四国房价仅分别相当于峰值的63.4%、84.7%、84.8%、83.2%。\n四是房价走势基本平稳、涨幅总体较小的经济体，只有德国1个。1970年以来德国房价有三次比较大的上涨周期：1971-1981年累计上涨近1.8倍，1987-1994年累计上涨35.1%，2009-2021年Q1累计上涨67.6%；而在任何一个下行周期中累计下跌未曾超过10%。\n\n\n\n\n1.2 本币房价长期走势与经济增长、人口变化、货币供应及住房制度相关\n不同经济体本币房价长期走势差异可解释为四方面：经济增长带来的收入效应、人口总量与结构变动引起的人口效应、货币供应带来的货币幻觉、住房制度影响的供求格局。房地产兼具消费品属性（居住需求，包括刚需和改善性需求）和金融属性（投资投机需求，并可以加杠杆），因而房价不仅取决于供需（人口及居民收入、土地供给），还与货币供应密切相关。从全球房地产市场运行经验看，在无争、瘟疫、自然灾害、经济金融危机等冲击的情况下，一国房价随着经济发展而长期上涨。\n1970-2021年Q1，23个经济体本币房价年均增速、本币名义GDP增速分别为6.3%、7.5%，二者较为接近、且相关系数为0.52；如剔除泰国、马来西亚，21个经济体的相关系数为0.54；如剔除泰国、马来西亚、韩国、中国香港，19个经济体相关系数达0.87。名义GDP可分解为人均不变价GDP、人口、GDP平减指数，加上影响供求格局的住房制度，四因素可较好地解释不同经济体房价长期走势差异。\n\n1）经济增长带来的收入效应。不变价GDP增长反映剔除价格后的真实经济增长，人均本币不变价GDP增长意味着居民实际购买力提高、增加房产需求。1970-2021年Q1,23个经济体本币不变价年均增长的平均数为2.7%、中位数为2.2%，人均本币不变价年均增速的平均数为1.9%、中位数为1.6%（部分经济体数据计算从有房价数据时开始，西班牙、中国香港、韩国、马来西亚、泰国分别从1971、1979、1975、1988、1991年开始）。其中，韩国人均本币不变价GDP年均增长高达5.3%,爱尔兰、中国香港、马来西亚、泰国年均增长均在2.5%以上，其他经济体多在2%以下，南非仅有0.2%。\n\n2）人口总量与结构变化引起的人口效应。人口对经济体层面房价的影响主要体现在如下三个方面：\n一是人口总量变动影响房价。人口总量变动包括自然增长、跨国（境）人口流动，一般而言，人口规模变化与住房需求呈正比。根据世界银行数据，2019年全球生育率为2.4，其中高收入、中高收入、中低收入、低收入经济体总和生育率分别为1.6、1.8、2.7、4.6，高收入和中高收入生育率已经不足以弥补人口世代更替。但高收入经济体吸引了大量人口跨国流入。1960-2020年，高收入经济体人口净流入规模累计1.4亿，来自中高、中低、低收入经济体的比例分别为26.4%、50.0%、27.1%。中高收入经济体人口生活水平接近高收入经济体，迁移动力不强；低收入经济体人口迁移动力强，但难以承担迁移成本；中低收入经济体人口迁移动力强，且能承担迁移成本。根据联合国统计，德国人口在2004-2011年一度累计减少约230万、后因移民重回增长，日本人口于2009开始负增长，意大利人口从2016年开始负增长。\n二是人口结构变化影响房价。20-50岁主力置业人群、家庭户规模等人口结构变化，将引致住房需求变化。在家庭户规模方面，由于结婚年龄推迟、不婚率和离婚率提高、低生育率、寿命延长、人口老龄化、人口流动等，导致全球家庭户规模呈小型化趋势，这增加了一定的住房需求。1960-2015年，美国家庭户规模从3.33降至2.54人，日本从4.14人降至2.39人；此外，1980-2015年，韩国从4.78人降至2.73人。在主力置业人群方面，美国20-49岁人口规模尚在持续增长，日本、韩国、英国分别已在1996、2004、2011年见顶，主力购房人群的规模变化对房地产市场具有非常显著的影响。\n三是人口通过经济增长影响房价。人口红利是许多追赶经济体过去经济高速增长的重要源泉，在人口红利消失后经济往往转为中速或低速增长。\n\n\n3）货币供应带来的货币幻觉。从国际经验看，在经济发展过程中，绝大部分国家均存在不同程度的货币超发，从而引起资产价格变化。一般而言，广义货币供应增速高则通胀高。1970-2021Q1年，23个经济体年均GDP平减指数平均数为4.3%、中位数为4.0%，不仅在绝对水平上与23个经济体房价年均增长的平均数6.3%较为接近，而且波动较为一致。比如，1970-2021年Q1，南非广义货币增长532.5倍，在货币大幅超发下南非名义GDP增长390.2倍，实际GDP仅增长1.9倍，GDP平减指数增长130.2倍，房价上涨101.6倍；美国广义货币增长33.2倍，名义GDP增长19.0倍，实际GDP上涨2.8倍，GDP平减指数增长5.2倍，房价上涨13倍。但是，货币超发易滋生房地产等资产价格泡沫，极端情况下甚至可能引发经济危机，比如1990年代日本房地产泡沫和2007年美国次贷危机。\n由于新兴经济体广义货币增长较快，因而以本币计算的房价涨幅较发达经济体更大。根据世界银行数据，2001-2020年印度、墨西哥等9个代表性新兴经济体广义货币年均增速平均为13.7%，明显高于英美日等6个代表性发达经济体的5.3%.据BIS统计，2010-2020年新兴经济体房价年均增长6.8%，超过发达经济体3.8%的房价年均增速。\n\n4）住房制度影响的供求格局。住房制度是一国房地产市场导向，一个好的住房制度能使房价长期稳定、支持实体经济发展，一个坏的住房制度可能引发房价暴涨暴跌、削弱甚至掏空实体经济。德国房价之所以长期稳定，关键在于其居住导向的住房制度设计，三大支柱分别为：中性稳健的货币政策与住房金融体系，鼓励居民长期持有住房、打击投机的税收制度，保护租户权益、鼓励长期租房的租赁制度。新加坡目前形成以组屋为主、私宅为辅的二元化供应体系，供给结构呈现“廉租房-廉价房-改善型组屋-私宅”的阶梯化分布，住房自有率超过90%，基本实现居者有其屋。\n\n1.3 美元房价涨幅与本币房价涨幅差异明显\n以美元计，1970-2021年Q1，23个经济体房价涨幅发生明显变化，且美元房价涨幅与美元名义GDP增长存在一定相关性。如果一经济体货币超发较美国严重，则货币将对美元贬值，因此本币房价大幅上涨并不意味着美元房价大幅上涨，在全球来看并不一定具备投资价值。依据美元房价涨幅，可大体分为四类：一是累计涨幅超过50倍和年均增长超过8%，仅新西兰1个。二是累计涨幅25-35倍和年均增长7%-7.5%，有英国、荷兰、西班牙3个经济体。三是累计涨幅10-20倍和年均增长5%-6.9%，有爱尔兰、澳大利亚、挪威、比利时、意大利、日本等14个经济体。四是累计涨幅低于9倍和年均增长5%以下，有德国、马来西亚、南非、泰国、韩国5个经济体。与本币房价涨幅相比，变化最大的是南非，1970-2021Q1年本币房价涨幅高达110.5倍，但美元房价涨幅仅3.8倍。此外，瑞士本币房价涨幅仅4.8倍，但美元房价达25.9倍；意大利本币房价上涨34.7倍，但美元房价涨幅缩至12.1倍；德国本币房价上涨3.6倍，美元房价上涨8.8倍。\n从相关系数看，23个经济体美元房价增长与美元名义GDP增长的相关系数仅为0.20，相关性较弱，但如果剔除美元名义GDP增长75.3倍、美元房价上涨仅0.7倍的韩国，以及美元名义GDP增长99.6倍、美元房价上涨仅28.7倍的爱尔兰，剩下21个经济体的相关系数则达0.77；这表明，从全球地产资产配置的角度看，一个经济体美元房价增长与美元名义GDP增长的正相关性大体上是成立的。不同经济体的美元房价长期走势差异也可以类似本币房价上期走势进行相应因素分解，区别在于通过汇率机制剔除了一个经济体相对美国的货币超发因素。\n\n1.4 疫情下的全球房价涨幅明显\n近一年主要经济体房价平均上涨超7%，土耳其上涨32%，新西兰超20%。根据KnightFrank数据，2020年Q1至2021年Q1，土耳其房价上涨32%，高居榜首；紧随其后的新西兰上涨22%；卢森堡位居第三，涨幅为16.6%；斯洛伐克位居第四，涨幅为15.5%；美国位居第五，涨幅为13%，创2005年以来最大涨幅。而亚洲主要国家涨幅低于全球平均，新加坡房价涨幅最大，为6.1%；紧随其后的日本上涨5.7%；中国房价涨幅为4.3%。\n疫情期间房价涨幅较大源于各国实施量化宽松政策、疫情积压的改善需求释放等。1）从货币政策看，为刺激疫情冲击下的经济复苏，各国央行实施量化宽松政策。一方面，量化宽松政策下市场上的流动资金变多，通过企业纾困资金、失业救济金等方式到了民众手中。同时在宽松货币政策下，房贷利率降低，如美国抵押贷款银行协会锚定的30年固定抵押贷款利率达到历史新低值3.08%。另一方面，量化宽松政策带来的货币贬值让民众急于寻找保值资产，具备保值增值属性的房地产成为投资的首选。2)从需求看，疫情期间积压的改善需求，在疫情得到一定控制后释放。其次，疫情这类“黑天鹅”事件让越来越多投资者开始试图通过分散配置资产来降低风险，拥有第二套住房成为更多高净值人士的选择。3)从供给看，宽松货币政策引发资产价格普遍上涨，原材料价格上涨增加建筑成本，同时疫情导致工人短缺，加剧原材料供给紧张，进一步推高原材料价格，进而推动房价上涨。\n\n2  一国内部哪个区域房价涨幅最大：人口流入的大都市圈\n2.1 英国：伦敦房价53年上涨113倍，内伦敦涨幅更大\n伦敦有三个范围：伦敦城（City of London）、大伦敦（Greater London）、伦敦都市区。伦敦城即伦敦金融城、面积很小，一般意义上的伦敦指大伦敦地区，包括319平方公里的内伦敦和1254平方公里的外伦敦，土地面积合计1573平方公里、占英国的0.6%；伦敦都市区则由大伦敦及周边地区组成。由于城市规划问题等造成大城市病突出，英国政府一度控制伦敦特别是内伦敦人口、在二战后外迁产业、大量建设新城，1941-1991年年伦敦人口从862万降至639万，后回升至2017年的882万，当前占英国人口比重为13.4%。但在经济作用下，伦敦周边地区人口长期集聚，1931-2001年英国东南地区人口从不到1300万增至1800多万，占比从27.5%增至31.1%。\n\n近53年大伦敦地区房价涨幅达113倍，远超英国、英格兰地区房价平均涨幅（71、81倍），和英国名义GDP涨幅（51倍）。根据英国国家统计办公室（ONS）数据，在英国，1968年-2021年3月，大伦敦地区房价从0.44万英镑/套上涨至50万英镑/套，英格兰地区从0.34万英镑/套上涨至27.5万英镑/套，全国从0.36万英镑/套上涨至25.6万英镑/套，伦敦地区房价涨幅达113倍，高于全国的71倍和英格兰地区的81倍。而同期（1967-2020年）英国名义GDP上涨50.7倍、年均增长7.7%，房价涨幅明显跑赢名义GDP增长。\n分阶段看，大伦敦与英格兰、英国房价涨幅在1994年之前非常接近，但在1995年后波动明显加大，特别是在2008年全球金融危机之后。1968-1994年，大伦敦、英格兰、英国房价涨幅分别为15.0倍、14.7倍、14.6倍，差异较小；但之后至2018年3月，房价涨幅明显分化，分别为5.3倍、3.5倍、3倍。受2008年金融危机影响，2009年4月大伦敦、英格兰、英国房价同比下跌16.6%、15.0%、14.9%；之后，在货币刺激量化宽松背景下，房价逐渐回升，至2018年3月年均增速分别为7.5%、4.5%、4.1%。\n\n从伦敦都市区内部看，近26年大伦敦房价涨幅超6.5倍，位居地区首位，周边地区涨幅均低于6.0%。1995年1月至2021年3年，大伦敦房价上涨6.7倍，而Kent、Hertfordshire、Essex、Windsor and Maidenhead、Surrey周边地区的涨幅分别为5.5、5.7、5.5、5.2、5.4倍，大伦敦区房价涨幅明显高于周边地区。此外，该时期英国第二大城市伯明翰房价上涨仅4.6倍，明显低于伦敦及周边地区涨幅。\n从大伦敦内部看，近26年内伦敦核心区域房价涨幅超7倍，外伦敦房价涨幅低于6.5倍。1995年1月至2021年3月，内伦敦房价从7.83万英镑/套涨至59.45万英镑/套，上涨7.6倍；外伦敦房价从7.30万英镑/套涨至45.10万英镑/套，上涨6.2倍。当前伦敦房价最贵是Kensington and Chelsea（122.72万英镑/套），其次是City of Westminster（93.68万英镑/套），分别较1995年1月上涨6.7倍、7.0倍。\n\n\n2.2 法国：巴黎市房价55年上涨44倍，涨幅超过周边地区\n巴黎有三个范围：巴黎市（或称小巴黎）、大巴黎（包括近郊3省）、巴黎大区（包括远郊4省，又称“法兰西岛”），土地面积分别为105、761、12001平方公里，其中巴黎大区土地面积占法国的1.8%。随着产业集聚，法国人口长期持续向巴黎及周边地区集聚，1876-2014年巴黎大区人口从332万人基本持续增至1203万人，人口占比从8.6%提升至18.8%，经济份额从1990年的28.4%提升至2014年的30.4%。期间，出于控制人口以治理大城市病的目的，巴黎市有过较长时间减少，1931-1999年从289万持续降至213万，之后回升至2018年的218万。\n近55年巴黎市55年房价上涨43.7倍，明显超过法国房价平均涨幅（26.6倍）、法国名义GDP涨幅（29.5倍），其年均增速分别为7.2%、6.2%、6.4%。在此之前的1945-1965年，受战后重建、婴儿潮及货币大幅超发等影响，巴黎市、法国房价分别暴涨54.1、38.3倍，年均增长22.2%、20.1%，但仍然落后于名义GDP年均增长（1950-1965年，51.2%）。\n分阶段看，1966年之后巴黎市房价走势可分为四个阶段：1）1966-1990年，房价快速上涨期。该时期巴黎市房价、法国房价、法国名义GDP年均增长10.7%、9.3%、10.6%。2）1992-1997年，房价下跌期。由于1985-1990年左右巴黎市房地产投机旺盛、房价涨幅过大（其中1987-1990年连续4年上涨均超过17%），巴黎市房价开始大幅下跌。该时期巴黎市房价、法国房价、法国名义GDP年均增长-6.1%、-0.4%、3.8%，至1997年底巴黎房价惨跌至1991年的69%。3）1998-2015年，波动增长期。该时期巴黎市房价、法国房价、法国名义GDP年均增长7.2%、5.0%、3.0%。其中，2013-2015年巴黎房价连续下跌。但2015年后巴黎房价迎来一波较大涨幅。\n\n巴黎市房价涨幅位居巴黎大区之首，1997年Q4至2021年Q1，巴黎市房价涨幅超3.5倍，明显高于近郊三省和远郊四省。由于巴黎市土地面积较小（105平方公里），稍大于北京市东城区和西城区面积之和（93平方公里），因此我们不再对巴黎市内部房价进行分析，而是将巴黎市作为巴黎大区的核心区域，分析其与巴黎大区其他区域房价的走势差异。根据法国统计局（INSEE）数据，1997年Q4至2021年Q1，巴黎市房价涨幅达3.7倍，明显超过近郊三省的2.5倍、远郊四省的1.6倍，该时期法国名义GDP涨幅为0.8倍。近郊三省Hauts de Seine、Seine St Denis、Val de Marne房价涨幅分别为2.6倍、2.5倍、2.4倍。远郊四省Yvelines、Val d'Oise、Seine and Marne、Essonne房价涨幅分别为1.8倍、1.7倍、1.5倍、1.5倍。\n\n2.3 美国：纽约市房价46年上涨9倍，皇后区表现较优\n纽约有多重涵义：纽约市、纽约都会区、纽约联合统计区等。其中，纽约市土地面积为789平方公里，2015年人口855万；纽约都会区（NewYork-Newark-Jersey City Metropolitan Statistical Area，NY-NJ-PAMSA）面积约1.7万平方公里，2015年人口2018万；纽约联合统计区（New York-Newark CombinedStatistical Area）由纽约都会区及毗邻都会区组成，2015年人口2372万。从人口看，由于美国经济重心向西海岸、南海岸偏移，1950-2015年纽约地区人口虽基本持续增长，但增幅84%远小于洛杉矶地区的328%，这使得纽约地区的人口占比明显下滑。期间，因人口郊区化及制造业衰退，纽约市人口在1950-1980年从789万减至702万；后因城市更新及产业转型升级等，回升至2015年的855万，2019年人口小幅下降到842万人。\n近46年纽约市房价上涨超9倍，高于美国平均水平，但低于纽约市周边及洛杉矶地区房价涨幅。根据美国联邦住房金融局（FHFA）统计，1975-2021年Q1，美国、纽约市、纽约-泽西-白原分区（纽约都会区分区之一）（1976-2021年Q1）、洛杉矶-长滩-格伦代尔分区（洛杉矶都会区分区之一）房价分别上涨8.1倍、9.9倍、12.9倍、19.7倍，年均增速分别为4.9%、5.3%、6.0%、6.8%。纽约-泽西-白原分区房价涨幅虽不及洛杉矶-长滩-格伦代尔分区，但仍显著高于美国平均水平。此外，该时期美国名义GDP上涨13.7倍、年均增长6.0%，M2增长20.5倍、年均增长6.9%。这意味着，纽约市房价跑输同时期美国名义GDP和M2，而洛杉矶-长滩-格伦代尔分区跑赢美国名义GDP，接近M2。\n\n\n在纽约都会区内部，纽约分区房价近35年上涨超4倍，在纽约都会区四大分区中位居第二。除纽约-泽西市-白原分区外，纽约都会区还包括NassauCounty–Suffolk County、Dutchess County-Putnam County、Newark三个分区。四大分区房价走势基本一致，其中1986年-2021年Q1,Nassau County–Suffolk County分区上涨4.3倍，年均涨幅为4.9%，位居第一；纽约-泽西市-白原分区上涨4.1倍，年均涨幅为4.6%，位居第二；Newark分区和DutchessCounty-Putnam County分区（1986-2018年Q1）分别上涨3.4倍、2.6倍，年均涨幅分别为4.3%、4.6%。\n在纽约市内部，曼哈顿区近30年房价上涨近2倍，高于纽约市水平。1991-2021年Q1，纽约市曼哈顿区房价上涨1.9倍、年均上涨3.7%，皇后区（1991-2020年）房价上涨2.8倍、年均上涨4.7%，而该时期纽约市和纽约分区房价分别上涨1.8倍、2.0倍，年均增速分别为3.5%、3.8%。\n\n2.4 日本：六个核心城市曾36年上涨210倍\n东京有三个范围：东京都区，东京都，包括千叶县、琦玉县和神奈川县的东京圈，土地面积分别为627、2188、13558平方公里。东京圈土地面积占日本的3.6%，2020年人口3694万，占日本的29.3%，当前地区生产总值约占日本的1/3。\n日本人口流动分为两个阶段：在1974年前，全国人口基本持续向东京圈、大阪圈、名古屋圈三极集聚。1884-1973年，除战争影响外，东京圈人口406万人增至2607万人，占比从10.8%增至23.9%；大阪圈人口从392万人增至1636万人，占比从10.5%增至15.0%；名古屋圈人口从311万人增至918万人，占比从8.3%增至8.4%。之后则转为向东京圈一极集中，而名古屋圈人口流入流出基本平衡、大阪圈长期净流出；到2016年，东京圈、大阪圈、名古屋圈人口分别为3629、1831、1134万，占比分别为28.6%、14.4%、8.9%，该时期大阪圈和名古屋圈人口增长主要源于自然增长。东京都人口在1970-1997年人口增长停滞，主要在于东京都区产业转移、人口外迁，但东京都非都区、东京圈三县人口显著增长。\n\n日本地价在泡沫破灭前36年上涨82倍，六个核心城市涨幅更是高达210倍。在1991年房地产泡沫破灭前，日本地价除1975年调整外保持持续上涨，1955-1991年上涨82倍，超过该时期55倍的名义GDP涨幅；其中，六个核心城市地价上涨210倍，非核心城市上涨78倍。分阶段看，1955-1974年日本东京区部、横滨、名古屋、京都、大阪、神户等六个核心城市地价上涨40.6倍、年均21.7%，其他城市上涨29.6倍、年均19.7%，同期名义GDP上涨15倍、年均15.7%。1975-1991年六个核心城市地价上涨4.5倍、年均11.2%，其他城市上涨1.7倍、年均6.4%，同期名义GDP上涨2.2倍、年均7.5%。\n1975年日本房价调整后还能继续上涨，主要在于经济增长和主力购房人群支撑，但因后期上涨过快、出生人口大幅下滑、1990年代主力置业人群见顶以及日本政府错误应对等，导致1990年代初房地产泡沫破灭。之后日本地价持续调整至2005年，2017年日本地价仅是峰值的47.1%。六个核心城市地价从1992年一直下跌到2005年，在经历了2006-2008年的短期上涨之后，因全球金融危机于2009-2012年再次下跌，2013年开始回升至今，2017年地价仅相当于1991年峰值的35.3%；因人口流出，日本非核心城市地价从1992年一直下跌，2017年地价相当于1991年峰值的47.5%。\n\n东京圈地价走势与日本整体基本一致，但峰值在1990年、较日本整体早1年，1976-1990年上涨3.4倍、年均11.1%；之后持续下跌至2005年，2014年已领先于全国止跌回升。东京圈、大阪圈房价在1990年见顶，名古屋圈和地方地价分别在1991、1992年见顶。1976年至房价峰值期间，东京圈、大阪圈、名古屋圈、地方地价分别上涨3.4、3.9、2.0、0.9倍，分别年均增长11.1%、12.0%、7.7%、4.0%；特别是在房价泡沫破灭前，1987-1988年东京圈地价暴涨0.95倍，1988-1990年大阪圈地价暴涨1.6倍。而在1976-1991年，日本名义GDP上涨1.8倍、年均增长7.2%，M2上涨2.7倍、年均增长9.0%。\n1990年代初房地产泡沫破灭后，东京圈地价大幅下跌至2005年，2006-2008年开始回升，但受全球金融危机影响于2009年开始再次调整，2014年开始再次回升。至2020年，东京圈、大阪圈、名古屋圈、地方地价仅分别是峰值的40.7%、27.8%、59.0%、56.7%。大阪圈地价之所以调整幅度最为惨烈，是因为其在泡沫破灭前上涨幅度最大、又缺乏人口支撑。\n东京都区部地价在1988年见顶，见顶前五年上涨2倍，同时调整早、止跌快,2005-2020年累计上涨超25%、为东京圈内部最高。东京都及东京都区地价在1988年见顶，较东京圈早2年、较日本整体早3年。在见顶的前五年，东京都区部房价上涨2倍，高于东京都的1.8倍和东京圈1.2倍。见顶后，东京都及东京都区部房价持续下跌至2005年，之后2009-2013年下跌，2014年开始回升。2005-2020年，东京都、东京都区部房价分别累计上涨13.3%、27.5%，东京都非区部房价基本持平，东京圈房价累计下跌1.7。2016年，东京都、区部、非都区房价分别相当于其峰值的42.7%、46.7%、38.8%，与东京圈的40.7%非常接近。\n\n\n3   结论：过去51年，大都市圈房产跑赢印钞机，推动新房改\n1）从全球视角看，一国房地产市场取决于：经济增长、人口变化、货币供应、住房制度。其中，前两项是基本面因素；货币超发会导致国内本币房价大涨但不一定美元房价大涨，即在全球视角下不一定具备投资价值；住房制度是一国房地产市场的政策导向。\n2）房地产具有抗通胀属性，能部分分享经济增长红利，并且多数国家的大都市圈房产是能够跑赢印钞机的少数资产之一。1970-2021年Q1，23个经济体本币房价增幅均不同程度超过各自CPI涨幅，英国、新西兰中国香港、马来西亚在扣除CPI后实际房价年均增长仍能达3%以上，而日本、德国扣除CPI后实际房价增长接近于0。与本币名义GDP增长相比，1970-2021年Q1，23个经济体中只有新西兰等少数经济体房价跑赢，这意味着多数经济体房价只能部分分享经济增长红利。\n长期看，全球货币超发是普遍现象，广义货币增速多高于名义GDP增长，能够跑赢印钞机的资产不多，在多数国家大都市圈的房地产是其中之一。从国际看，1987-2020年英国房价年均增长5.6%，虽高于4.5%的名义GDP年均增速，但仍然低于7.1%的广义货币年均增速；1960-2020年美国房价年均增长4.5%，而名义GDP和M2年均增速分别为6.3%、7.1%。从大都市圈看，在美国，1975-2020年，纽约-泽西-白原分区房价年均增长5.8%，低于同期M2的6.8%，与GDP的5.8%相同。在中国，过去四十年广义货币供应量M2年均增速15%，1998年以来全国新建住房销售均价年均复合增速达7.72%，低于同期M2增速近8个百分点，而一线城市房价基本与M2增速持平。\n3）从全球资产配置角度看，一些经济增长潜力大的新兴经济体、特别是其核心城市房地产有较大投资潜力。一般而言，新兴经济体货币超发比较严重，房价涨幅也较大，但从全球资产配置角度看，投资者关注的是美元房价涨幅，即剔除了货币相对超发导致的汇率变化，而美元房价涨幅则主要与美元名义GDP增长相关，可分解经济增长、人口变化、住房制度等因素。一些经济增长潜力大的新兴经济体未来有可能出现类似中国房地产市场过去的“黄金时代”，不过需要注意政治、法律等相关风险。\n4）构建居住导向的中国新住房制度。中国房地产二十年发展表明，短期调控无法解决长期供需不平衡的根本矛盾，深化住房制度改革才是实现房地产市场平稳健康发展的根本。\n一是改革“人地挂钩”，优化土地供应。目前推行的“人地挂钩”为农业转移人口落户数量与建设用地供应量挂钩，并不能解决热点城市人口流入与住房供应紧张之间的矛盾，未来应推行新增常住人口与土地供应挂钩、跨省耕地占补平衡与城乡用地增减挂钩，如东北和西部地区售卖用地指标，可以有效解决目前东北、西部用地指标大量浪费的问题。严格执行“库存去化周期与供地挂钩”原则，优化当前土地供应模式。\n二是保持货币政策和房地产金融政策长期稳定。实行长期稳定的住房信贷金融政策，稳定购房者预期，支持刚需和改善型购房需求，同时抑制投机性需求。支持房企合理融资需求，规范融资用途，防止过度融资。\n三是转变住房供应结构，丰富供应主体。当前中国住房供给体系重销售轻租赁，多元主体供给型的住房体系尚未建立。未来供应主体将从开发商为主转变为政府、开发商、租赁中介公司、长租公司等多方供给；供给形式也将由商品房为主转向商品房、租赁房、共有产权房等多品类。不过，住房供应结构的探索与政策出台须因地制宜，人口净流出城市尤需警惕盲目跟风。\n四是稳步推动房产税试点。随着大开发时代结束，存量房时代下土地出让金减少、交易环节税收减少，推出房产税是大势所趋。从国际经验看，房产税通常被成熟市场经济体作为地方财政收入的重要和稳定来源。房产税改革的总原则是“立法先行、充分授权、分步推进”。“立法先行”是先立法再开征；“充分授权”是授权各地方因地制宜试点、不一刀切，本身房产税按照国际经验就是地方主体税；“分布推进”是积极稳妥推进，要力争方案成熟并做好社会预期引导。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"515060":0.9,"DRN":0.9,"ARL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2520,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":897883254,"gmtCreate":1628905612478,"gmtModify":1676529889782,"author":{"id":"4089193130492580","authorId":"4089193130492580","name":"Kyochan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4fc81b464ccbd183246bb9a55efdc950","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4089193130492580","idStr":"4089193130492580"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"fly","listText":"fly","text":"fly","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/897883254","repostId":"1116529888","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1116529888","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1628867931,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1116529888?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-08-13 23:18","market":"other","language":"zh","title":"[Change] The decline of popular Chinese concept stocks expanded, and Keike fell more than 9%","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1116529888","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"8月13日，热门中概股跌幅扩大，叮咚买菜跌超10%，贝壳跌超9%，满帮跌超8%，哔哩哔哩跌超6%，滴滴、小牛电动、微博跌超5%，理想汽车、拼多多、百度跌超4%，蔚来、小鹏汽车、好未来跌超3%，新东方、","content":"<p>On August 13, the decline of popular Chinese concept stocks expanded.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DDL\">ding-dong</a>Shopping fell by more than 10%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BEKE\">Shells</a>Fell more than 9%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/YMM\">Manbang</a>Fell more than 8%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">Bilibili</a>Fell more than 6%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DIDI\">Didi</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIU\">Mavericks Electric</a>, Weibo fell more than 5%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">Li Auto</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">Pinduoduo</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">Baidu</a>Fell more than 4%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">Nio</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">XPeng vehicles</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TAL\">TAL</a>Fell more than 3%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EDU\">New Oriental</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba</a>Fell more than 2%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">JD.com</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NTES\">NetEase</a>Fell more than 1%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/241b92b785e9a0d584dd9f95cecac21b\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>[Change] The decline of popular Chinese concept stocks expanded, and Keike fell more than 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{font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n[Change] The decline of popular Chinese concept stocks expanded, and Keike fell more than 9%\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-08-13 23:18</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>On August 13, the decline of popular Chinese concept stocks expanded.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DDL\">ding-dong</a>Shopping fell by more than 10%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BEKE\">Shells</a>Fell more than 9%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/YMM\">Manbang</a>Fell more than 8%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">Bilibili</a>Fell more than 6%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DIDI\">Didi</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIU\">Mavericks Electric</a>, Weibo fell more than 5%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">Li Auto</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">Pinduoduo</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">Baidu</a>Fell more than 4%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">Nio</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">XPeng vehicles</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TAL\">TAL</a>Fell more than 3%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EDU\">New Oriental</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba</a>Fell more than 2%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">JD.com</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NTES\">NetEase</a>Fell more than 1%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/241b92b785e9a0d584dd9f95cecac21b\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/03f3d0c168656a3e6eb4245c3c31ff40","relate_stocks":{"QNETCN":"纳斯达克中美互联网老虎指数","BEKE":"贝壳","TTTN":"老虎中美互联网巨头ETF"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1116529888","content_text":"8月13日，热门中概股跌幅扩大，叮咚买菜跌超10%，贝壳跌超9%，满帮跌超8%，哔哩哔哩跌超6%，滴滴、小牛电动、微博跌超5%，理想汽车、拼多多、百度跌超4%，蔚来、小鹏汽车、好未来跌超3%，新东方、阿里巴巴跌超2%，京东、网易跌超1%。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BEKE":0.9,"TTTN":0.9,"QNETCN":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":790,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}