不死鸟. personal page - To The Moon

不死鸟.

不死鸟.

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02-20

$Oxford Lane Capital Corp(OXLC)$

2024-02-03

2022-10-08

👌

Sorry, the original content has been removed

2023-06-17

👍👍👍👍👍👍

2022-02-13

nice

Credit Suisse Entities Agree to Settle Lawsuit in U.S. for $81 Million - court filing

2022-01-29

ok,thanks

Reminder: List of closing arrangements for major markets during the Spring Festival holiday

2022-03-26

thanks for sharing👍

What Are MANGO Stocks? Why MANGO Stocks Could Outperform？

2023-01-18

👍

2022-09-04

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Hong Kong stocks continue to see-saw at low levels, and reverse thinking layout is long-term

2022-06-13

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How to compete with Apple Watch? Swiss watch industry: getting even more trenched!

2022-04-02

$苹果(AAPL)$200

2022-04-28

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It has soared nearly 12% this year! How long can this sector be hot?

2022-04-24

thans for info

Netflix’s Plunge Is a Wake-Up Call for Streaming

2022-02-24

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Sorry, the original content has been removed

2022-02-18

ok

Foreign media headlines | Geopolitical risks trigger changes! Rate hike strength is expected to decline

2022-02-07

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CITIC Securities: Joy and Worry of Overseas Markets during the Spring Festival Holiday

2022-01-29

go and play

@TigerEvents:Join Tiger Ski Championship, Win a Bonus of Up to USD 2022

2022-01-06

power,💪👍

Next year, BYD will surpass Tesla?

2023-01-15

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2022-10-19

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first to agree to settle, the law firm Cohen Milstein Sellers &amp; Toll PLLC said in a release.</p><p>&#34;This first settlement agreement includes both an $81 million cash payment and an obligation on the part of Credit Suisse to provide cooperation to plaintiffs in litigating and ultimately trying their case against the remaining defendants,&#34; lawyers for the plaintiffs said in a court filing late on Friday.</p><p>The plaintiffs had accused units of Credit Suisse, Goldman Sachs Group Inc   , JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co    and three other banks of conspiring since 2009 to keep the stock lending market &#34;in the stone age&#34; by boycotting startup platforms like AQS or Data Explorers. They accused the banks of doing this in order to charge excessive fees to investors.</p><p>Credit Suisse said in a statement that it believed that the plaintiffs&#39; claims were without merit but &#34;we are pleased to resolve the litigation.&#34;</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Credit Suisse Entities Agree to Settle Lawsuit in U.S. for $81 Million - court filing</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCredit Suisse Entities Agree to Settle Lawsuit in U.S. for $81 Million - court filing\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1036604489\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Reuters </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-02-13 07:23</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>WASHINGTON, Feb 12 (Reuters) - Credit Suisse Group AG entities, among six defendants in a lawsuit originally filed by Iowa Public Employees Retirement System and other retirement associations, has agreed to pay $81 million, the first to agree to settle, the law firm Cohen Milstein Sellers &amp; Toll PLLC said in a release.</p><p>&#34;This first settlement agreement includes both an $81 million cash payment and an obligation on the part of Credit Suisse to provide cooperation to plaintiffs in litigating and ultimately trying their case against the remaining defendants,&#34; lawyers for the plaintiffs said in a court filing late on Friday.</p><p>The plaintiffs had accused units of Credit Suisse, Goldman Sachs Group Inc   , JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co    and three other banks of conspiring since 2009 to keep the stock lending market &#34;in the stone age&#34; by boycotting startup platforms like AQS or Data Explorers. They accused the banks of doing this in order to charge excessive fees to investors.</p><p>Credit Suisse said in a statement that it believed that the plaintiffs&#39; claims were without merit but &#34;we are pleased to resolve the litigation.&#34;</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","JPM":"摩根大通","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BK4127":"投资银行业与经纪业","BK4552":"Archegos爆仓风波概念","BK4504":"桥水持仓","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","BK4207":"综合性银行","BK4566":"资本集团"},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2211246925","content_text":"WASHINGTON, Feb 12 (Reuters) - Credit Suisse Group AG entities, among six defendants in a lawsuit originally filed by Iowa Public Employees Retirement System and other retirement associations, has agreed to pay $81 million, the first to agree to settle, the law firm Cohen Milstein Sellers & Toll PLLC said in a release.\"This first settlement agreement includes both an $81 million cash payment and an obligation on the part of Credit Suisse to provide cooperation to plaintiffs in litigating and ultimately trying their case against the remaining defendants,\" lawyers for the plaintiffs said in a court filing late on Friday.The plaintiffs had accused units of Credit Suisse, Goldman Sachs Group Inc   , JPMorgan Chase & Co    and three other banks of conspiring since 2009 to keep the stock lending market \"in the stone age\" by boycotting startup platforms like AQS or Data Explorers. They accused the banks of doing this in order to charge excessive fees to investors.Credit Suisse said in a statement that it believed that the plaintiffs' claims were without merit but \"we are pleased to resolve the litigation.\"","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"831010":1,"831039":1,"831305":1,"831370":1,"831445":1,"831726":1,"831768":1,"831832":1,"831856":1,"831961":1,"CS":0.9,"JPM":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":737,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9099405738,"gmtCreate":1643407298256,"gmtModify":1676533816258,"author":{"id":"4094536006197120","authorId":"4094536006197120","name":"不死鸟.","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/58aa91ee114515837a7c24d97a1ac173","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4094536006197120","idStr":"4094536006197120"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"ok,thanks","listText":"ok,thanks","text":"ok,thanks","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9099405738","repostId":"1121905464","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1121905464","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1642411108,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1121905464?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-01-17 17:18","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Reminder: List of closing arrangements for major markets during the Spring Festival holiday","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1121905464","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"农历新年假期即将来临，部分交易所的开市和收市时间有所变动，敬请各位投资者密切留意。港股：2022年1月31日（星期一）半日交易，下午休市。2022年2月1日（星期二）至2月3日（星期四）休市。美股：","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>The Lunar New Year holiday is approaching, and the opening and closing times of some exchanges have changed. Investors are requested to pay close attention.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2aef2112c6fa0ba265b518492f29cb15\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1085\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Hong Kong stocks:</b></p><p>Half-day trading on Monday, January 31, 2022, closed in the afternoon.</p><p>Closed from Tuesday, February 1 to Thursday, February 3, 2022.</p><p><b>US stocks:</b></p><p>Market open as usual.</p><p><b>A shares:</b></p><p>Closed from Monday, January 31 to Friday, February 4, 2022.</p><p><b>Australian stocks:</b></p><p>Market open as usual.</p><p><b>Singapore market:</b></p><p>Half-day trading on Monday, January 31, 2022, closed in the afternoon.</p><p>Closed from Tuesday, February 1 to Wednesday, February 2, 2022.</p><p><b>Hong Kong Stock Connect:</b></p><p>The Hong Kong Stock Connect service will not be provided from January 27 (Thursday) to February 4, 2022 (Friday).</p><p><b>Shanghai Stock Connect and Shenzhen Stock Connect:</b></p><p>No service will be available from Monday, January 31 to Friday, February 4, 2022.</p><p>No service will be available from Monday, January 31 to Friday, February 4, 2022.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Reminder: List of closing arrangements for major markets during the Spring Festival holiday</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nReminder: List of closing arrangements for major markets during the Spring Festival holiday\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-01-17 17:18</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>The Lunar New Year holiday is approaching, and the opening and closing times of some exchanges have changed. Investors are requested to pay close attention.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2aef2112c6fa0ba265b518492f29cb15\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1085\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Hong Kong stocks:</b></p><p>Half-day trading on Monday, January 31, 2022, closed in the afternoon.</p><p>Closed from Tuesday, February 1 to Thursday, February 3, 2022.</p><p><b>US stocks:</b></p><p>Market open as usual.</p><p><b>A shares:</b></p><p>Closed from Monday, January 31 to Friday, February 4, 2022.</p><p><b>Australian stocks:</b></p><p>Market open as usual.</p><p><b>Singapore market:</b></p><p>Half-day trading on Monday, January 31, 2022, closed in the afternoon.</p><p>Closed from Tuesday, February 1 to Wednesday, February 2, 2022.</p><p><b>Hong Kong Stock Connect:</b></p><p>The Hong Kong Stock Connect service will not be provided from January 27 (Thursday) to February 4, 2022 (Friday).</p><p><b>Shanghai Stock Connect and Shenzhen Stock Connect:</b></p><p>No service will be available from Monday, January 31 to Friday, February 4, 2022.</p><p>No service will be available from Monday, January 31 to Friday, February 4, 2022.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/752af43ca78e3ed4d3be0dbeaf4ea23c","relate_stocks":{"399001":"深证成指","399006":"创业板指",".DJI":"道琼斯","HSTECH":"恒生科技指数",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","STI.SI":"富时新加坡海峡指数",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","000001.SH":"上证指数","HSI":"恒生指数","HSCEI":"国企指数","HSCCI":"红筹指数"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1121905464","content_text":"农历新年假期即将来临，部分交易所的开市和收市时间有所变动，敬请各位投资者密切留意。港股：2022年1月31日（星期一）半日交易，下午休市。2022年2月1日（星期二）至2月3日（星期四）休市。美股：照常开市。A股：2022年1月31日（星期一）至2月4日（星期五）休市。澳股：照常开市。新加坡市场：2022年1月31日（星期一）半日交易，下午休市。2022年2月1日（星期二）至2月2日（星期三）休市。港股通：2022年1月27日（星期四）至2月4日（星期五）不提供港股通服务。沪股通、深股通：2022年1月31日（星期一）至2月4日（星期五）不提供服务。2022年1月31日（星期一）至2月4日（星期五）不提供服务。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"399001":0.9,"399006":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"HSCEI":0.9,"STI.SI":0.9,"HSCCI":0.9,"HSTECH":0.9,"000001.SH":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"HSI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":705,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9010184466,"gmtCreate":1648289159582,"gmtModify":1676534325789,"author":{"id":"4094536006197120","authorId":"4094536006197120","name":"不死鸟.","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/58aa91ee114515837a7c24d97a1ac173","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4094536006197120","idStr":"4094536006197120"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"thanks for sharing👍","listText":"thanks for sharing👍","text":"thanks for sharing👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9010184466","repostId":"1111363520","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1111363520","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1648252161,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1111363520?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-03-26 07:49","market":"us","language":"en","title":"What Are MANGO Stocks? Why MANGO Stocks Could Outperform？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1111363520","media":"investorplace","summary":"MANGO stocks, a new term investors are adding to their vocabularies today, are a group of semiconduc","content":"<div>\n<p>MANGO stocks, a new term investors are adding to their vocabularies today, are a group of semiconductor stocks. This new acronym, a riff on the Nasdaq Composite’s top-performing FAANG tech stocks, is ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://investorplace.com/2022/03/what-are-mango-stocks/\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"lsy1606302653667","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>What Are MANGO Stocks? Why MANGO Stocks Could Outperform？</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhat Are MANGO Stocks? Why MANGO Stocks Could Outperform？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-03-26 07:49 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://investorplace.com/2022/03/what-are-mango-stocks/><strong>investorplace</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>MANGO stocks, a new term investors are adding to their vocabularies today, are a group of semiconductor stocks. This new acronym, a riff on the Nasdaq Composite’s top-performing FAANG tech stocks, is ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://investorplace.com/2022/03/what-are-mango-stocks/\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AVGO":"博通","NVDA":"英伟达","AMD":"美国超微公司","GFS":"GLOBALFOUNDRIES Inc.","ON":"安森美半导体","MRVL":"迈威尔科技","ADI":"亚德诺"},"source_url":"https://investorplace.com/2022/03/what-are-mango-stocks/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1111363520","content_text":"MANGO stocks, a new term investors are adding to their vocabularies today, are a group of semiconductor stocks. This new acronym, a riff on the Nasdaq Composite’s top-performing FAANG tech stocks, is generating interest. So what are the MANGO stocks and what else do you need to know?Like the fruit, MANGO stocks have provided sweet returns for investors recently. Bank of America analyst Vivek Arya suggests this group of chip stocks — Marvell Technology (NASDAQ:MRVL), Advanced Micro Devices (NASDAQ:AMD), Broadcom (NASDAQ:AVGO), Analog Devices (NASDAQ:ADI), Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA), GlobalFoundries (NASDAQ:GFS) and ON Semiconductor (NASDAQ:ON) — could be leaders in the future economy. Notably, this analyst believes that these chip stocks can outperform despite various market concerns right now.Finding a group of stocks that is able to weather this current environment is what many investors are after. Indeed, there is an impressive amount of uncertainty weighing on Wall Street right now. Investors are concerned with inflation, interest rate hikes, geopolitical tensions and supply chain bottlenecks.The semiconductor sector is exposed to these issues. However, there are reasons why analysts are growing increasingly bullish on these stocks.Let’s dive into what investors may want to consider with chip stocks right now.Why MANGO Stocks Could OutperformDespite the impacts of the pandemic and supply chain woes on chip makers, the Bank of America analyst believes there is reason to be bullish on MANGO stocks. This is because demand has been increasing for chips for some time, and the underlying technology is improving. Assuming these tailwinds remain in place, MANGO stocks could be key winners.Additionally, Arya sees a few other things to like about chip stocks. Many of the names in the MANGO acronym have ties to the cloud and artificial intelligence. Others are in the electric vehicle space.Most investors can wrap their heads around this rather easy-to-understand thesis. While semiconductor stocks have struggled this year, the for this sector remain bright. Thus, MANGO stocks are the new tech grouping investors may want to keep on their radar right now.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NVDA":0.9,"ADI":0.9,"MRVL":0.9,"GFS":0.9,"AVGO":0.9,"ON":0.9,"AMD":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":667,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9956682793,"gmtCreate":1673994489312,"gmtModify":1676538912875,"author":{"id":"4094536006197120","authorId":"4094536006197120","name":"不死鸟.","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/58aa91ee114515837a7c24d97a1ac173","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4094536006197120","idStr":"4094536006197120"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👍","listText":"👍","text":"👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9956682793","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":489,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9933146157,"gmtCreate":1662255295879,"gmtModify":1676537024686,"author":{"id":"4094536006197120","authorId":"4094536006197120","name":"不死鸟.","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/58aa91ee114515837a7c24d97a1ac173","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4094536006197120","idStr":"4094536006197120"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"ok","listText":"ok","text":"ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9933146157","repostId":"1179759462","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1179759462","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"张忆东从事A股港股及大类资产配置研究逾15载，连续多年获策略研究第一名，是新财富、水晶球、金牛奖、第一财经、IAMAC奖的“全满贯”第一，三次获“新财富”策略第一。该公众号是其团队研究大类资产配置、A股港股美股及其他市场的成果","home_visible":1,"media_name":"张忆东策略世界","id":"1065818805","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ad7f636ec1274a70b86d1fdc1329e0eb"},"pubTimestamp":1662172317,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1179759462?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-09-03 10:31","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Hong Kong stocks continue to see-saw at low levels, and reverse thinking layout is long-term","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1179759462","media":"张忆东策略世界","summary":"一、回顾：港股行情在底部反复拉锯3月中旬做出港股市场底的判断，并预判2季度海外市场动荡。5-6月提示港股反弹行情难一蹴而就，相比2020年，海外环境、国内房地产和疫情反复使得经济复苏的难度更大。7月上","content":"<p><html><head></head><body><b>1. Review: The Hong Kong stock market is repeatedly seesawing at the bottom</b></p><p>In mid-March, we made a judgment on the bottom of the Hong Kong stock market, and predicted turmoil in overseas markets in the second quarter. May-June reminds that the rebound of Hong Kong stocks is difficult to achieve overnight. Compared with 2020, the overseas environment, domestic real estate and repeated epidemics make economic recovery more difficult. In early July, it was pointed out that the epidemic variables resurfaced, and the Hong Kong stock market will be repeatedly tug-of-war at the bottom. At the beginning of August, we continued to emphasize the tug-of-war pattern at the bottom of Hong Kong stocks.</p><p><b>2. Outlook: There are opportunities in the crisis, China's economy is facing pressure, overseas liquidity continues to tighten, and Hong Kong stocks will continue to fight at the bottom</b></p><p>--Although the economic recovery is still weak, Hong Kong stocks already contain many pessimistic expectations, and the profit expectations of Hong Kong stocks in the mid-term report season ushered in an extreme improvement. The 2023 Hang Seng Index, which has been continuously lowered since the second quarter of 2021, consensus expects that the year-on-year growth rate of EPS will stop the downward trend in August 2022. Among them, the information technology industry has rebounded slightly in the last four weeks after experiencing a sharp reduction in profit forecasts.</p><p>--Sino-US regulatory cooperation has made progress, reducing the risk of liquidity shocks caused by the delisting of Chinese concept stocks in Hong Kong stocks, especially Internet companies.</p><p>--Pay attention to the sub-sectors with high prosperity and the turning point of some industries. On August 24th, the executive meeting of the State Council proposed to increase the quota by more than 300 billion yuan on the basis that 300 billion yuan of policy development financial instruments have been put into the project. The advanced manufacturing prosperity supported by policies continues to remain high. The profits of industrial enterprises in July showed that in addition to upstream industries, electrical equipment maintained a high growth rate, and automobiles ushered in significant improvement. Pessimistic expectations for real estate have eased, and US dollar bonds of Chinese real estate have rebounded significantly.</p><p>--The Federal Reserve releases hawks, the 0826 Jackson Hole summit reappears the \"Volcker moment\", and it will take time for overseas liquidity risks to be lifted. 1) Although inflation data fell back in July, inflation is still at a high platform. The labor market remains strong, labor costs are rising, rising food prices, uncertainty in energy prices, continued high rents, and geopolitical risks in Russia and Ukraine are still supporting inflation levels in the United States. 2) The November mid-term elections are just around the corner, and fighting inflation is still the political focus of the White House.</p><p><b>3. Investment strategy: defensive counterattack</b></p><p><ul><li>Main line 1. Select cost-effective stocks in the direction of high prosperity. The energy technology industry chain represented by new energy and new energy vehicles has benefited from improved demand, supply chain recovery, and month-on-month cost reduction.</p><p></li><li>Second, the main line is to improve the dilemma. Waiting for the improvement of China's economic expectations and the improvement of industrial regulatory environment to promote the performance of related listed companies from quantitative change to qualitative change, we will select the alpha in the Internet, property, food and beverage, and medicine.</p><p></li><li>Third, the main line is to find the allocation value of \"bond-like assets\" in traditional industries. Based on the long-term allocation of state-owned and central enterprise real estate stocks that can obtain low-cost funds and high-quality land reserves, state-owned and central enterprise energy stocks with low valuations and high dividends, and the revaluation of leading financial, transportation, and building materials after waiting for economic expectations to improve.</p><p>Risk warning: the global economic growth rate is declining; The monetary policies of China and the United States fell short of expectations; Great power game risk</p><p></li></ul><b>Report text</b></p><p><b>1. Review: The Hong Kong stock market is repeatedly seesawing at the bottom</b></p><p><b>In mid-March, we made a judgment on the bottom of the Hong Kong stock market, and predicted turmoil in overseas markets in the second quarter. May-June reminds that the rebound of Hong Kong stocks is difficult to achieve overnight. Compared with 2020, the overseas environment, domestic real estate and repeated epidemics make economic recovery more difficult. In early July, it was pointed out that the epidemic variables resurfaced, and the Hong Kong stock market will be repeatedly tug-of-war at the bottom. At the beginning of August, we continued to emphasize the tug-of-war pattern at the bottom of Hong Kong stocks.</b></p><p><ul><li>On March 16th, \"Irrational Decline\" and Looking for the Power of Self-confidence \"suggested that investors can be optimistic, downplay the short-term madness of\" Mr. Market \"and look more at the essence of investment-the long-term value of enterprises.</p><p></li><li>On May 3rd, \"It turns warm and cold, and the strategic stalemate stage is expected to start\" judged that the overall tone of the market turned \"warm\": \"The stage of excessive pessimism about China's fundamentals is expected to pass in May, and confidence will gradually recover\", and the \"cold\" level emphasized the adjustment pressure of overseas markets: \"U.S. stocks may repeat the fourth quarter of 2018 in the medium term\". It is pointed out that \"based on the high transmissibility of virus mutation, coordinating epidemic prevention and control and economic and social development faces greater challenges than in 2020\".</p><p></li><li>On June 2, \"Fighting\" Guerrilla Warfare \"during the Strategic Stalemate of Hong Kong Stocks\" made it clear that \"the bottom of the Hong Kong stock market in March can basically be confirmed as the bottom of the market based on multiple factors in political and economic valuations, and the release of systemic risks in the past year or so has basically ended.\", the trend of recovery of China's economy and the performance of listed companies in the medium term can be expected, and we are optimistic about medium-term strategic layout opportunities. At the same time, it pointed out: \"Hong Kong stocks have been devastated by the bear market in the past year or so, and it will take time to rebuild confidence, and it is difficult for the market to be overwhelming and achieve it overnight.\"</p><p></li><li>On July 12, \"In a turbulent world, how to lay out Hong Kong stocks at the bottom\") pointed out that \"under repeated epidemics, it is difficult to boost short-term market confidence.\"</p><p></li><li>On August 3, \"Winning in Chaos, Going Long in China's Advanced Manufacturing Industry\" pointed out that \"the Hong Kong stock market will still be seesawing at the bottom, but the systemic risk is not great.\"</p><p></li></ul><b>2. Outlook: There are opportunities in the crisis, China's economy is under pressure, overseas liquidity continues to tighten, and Hong Kong stocks will continue to fight at the bottom</b></p><p><b>2.1. Although the economic recovery is still weak, Hong Kong stocks already contain many pessimistic expectations, and the profit expectations of Hong Kong stocks in the mid-term report season ushered in an extreme improvement</b></p><p>The 2023 Hang Seng Index, which has been continuously lowered since the second quarter of 2021, consensus expects that the year-on-year growth rate of EPS will stop the downward trend in August 2022. Among them, the information technology industry has rebounded slightly in the last four weeks after experiencing a sharp reduction in profit forecasts.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4abcef7f945380bcf6ed756c9a5d8be0\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"495\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>2.2. Sino-US regulatory cooperation has made progress to reduce the risk of liquidity shocks caused by the delisting of Chinese concept stocks in Hong Kong stocks, especially Internet companies</b></p><p>The risk premium of the Hang Seng Index has remained high since March. Both the risk premium measured by the 10-year U.S. bond yield and the 10-year Chinese Treasury Bond yield are higher than twice the standard deviation above the mean since 2011. The delisting risk of Chinese concept stocks is one of the important reasons that affect the risk appetite of Hong Kong stocks, especially since most Internet companies are listed in Hong Kong and the United States, investors are worried that a large number of delists from U.S. stocks will cause liquidity shocks.</p><p>\"The China Securities Regulatory Commission and the Ministry of Finance of the People's Republic of China signed an audit supervision cooperation agreement with the Public Company Accounting Oversight Board (PCAOB) of the United States on August 26, 2022, and will start relevant cooperation in the near future.\" According to the relevant person in charge of the China Securities Regulatory Commission Answering a reporter's question, \"If the follow-up cooperation can meet their respective regulatory needs, it is expected to solve the audit supervision problem of Chinese concept stocks, thus avoiding passive delisting from the United States.\"</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d0fda8837eeb214c2177d52e76902924\" tg-width=\"1066\" tg-height=\"489\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>2.3. Pay attention to high-prosperity subdivided industries and the turning point of some industries</b></p><p><b>Economic data from July to August show that the economic recovery is weak, and policies will continue to exert efforts to stabilize the economy.</b>On August 24th, the executive meeting of the State Council proposed to increase the quota by more than 300 billion yuan on the basis that 300 billion yuan of policy development financial instruments have been put into the project.</p><p><b>The advanced manufacturing prosperity supported by policies continues to remain high.</b>The profits of industrial enterprises in July showed that in addition to upstream industries, electrical equipment maintained a high growth rate, and automobiles ushered in significant improvement. According to the year-on-year growth rate of cumulative profits from January to July, electrical equipment was 18%; Automobiles were-14%, a significant improvement from the previous value of-25% from January to June.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ffc2a262d06343072f542412d614caf0\" tg-width=\"1051\" tg-height=\"521\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>Pessimistic expectations for real estate have eased, and US dollar bonds of Chinese real estate have rebounded significantly.</b>On August 19, the Dealers Association once again convened a symposium with a number of private real estate companies to discuss ways to support private real estate companies in issuing bonds and financing through ChinaBond to enhance corporate credit enhancement support.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dc39ce31facf981686ad65e0f1417c9b\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"555\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>2.4. The Fed releases hawks, the 0826 Jackson Hole Summit reappears the \"Volcker moment\", and it will take time for overseas liquidity risks to be lifted</b></p><p><b>The 0826 Jackson Hole Summit reappeared the \"Volcker Moment\", verifying our previous judgment: \"Inflation for recession is actually a policy dilemma.\"</b>At the meeting, Powell emphasized that the cost of price instability will be higher than the cost of slowing growth and weak labor market caused by high interest rates; Especially the summary of the historical experience of 1970s, the \"Volcker Moment\" reappears.</p><p>It will take time for the Fed to turn around. 1) Although inflation data fell back in July, inflation is still at a high platform. The labor market remains strong, labor costs are rising, rising food prices, uncertainty in energy prices, continued high rents, and geopolitical risks in Russia and Ukraine are still supporting inflation levels in the United States. 2) The November mid-term elections are just around the corner, and fighting inflation is still the political focus of the White House.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/94d860c5515574a2809997e8b27e9993\" tg-width=\"1073\" tg-height=\"531\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>3. Investment strategy: defensive counterattack</b></p><p><b>Main line 1. Select cost-effective stocks in the direction of high prosperity.</b>The energy technology industry chain represented by new energy and new energy vehicles has benefited from improved demand, supply chain recovery, and month-on-month reduction in costs.</p><p><ul><li><b>Electricity operator</b>: Under the deep concerns about yields and electricity prices, the valuation of the green power sector has experienced a significant correction, and recent events have shown the \"correction\" of vicious competition in the industry. After the sector experienced deep suppression, three ministries and commissions recently established a renewable energy settlement company, and the power grid took the lead in financing to solve the subsidy gap. As one of the important catalysts for the green power industry in the second half of the year, the solution to the subsidy problem is expected to increase the industry's reinvestment capabilities. It is true that the problem of yield is difficult to solve in the short term, but the current stock price of the sector has a sufficient margin of safety, and we are optimistic about the growth of installed capacity.</p><p></li><li><b>Wind power</b>: Wind power companies have successively disclosed semi-annual reports, showing that the epidemic situation and high raw material prices in the first half of the year have led to tight production capacity and pressure on profits. The current valuation has fallen back to historical lows. Construction will start in the second half of the year, raw material prices will both improve, and profits are expected to usher in recovery. Companies with better cost control and transmission capabilities are recommended.</p><p></li><li><b>New energy vehicle industry chain</b>: The recent sales data of key car companies exceeded expectations, and a number of new energy models will be launched soon this year. In terms of investment: Benefiting from this round of stimulus policies, new energy and traditional car companies whose sales scale and profitability are expected to increase rapidly in the second half of the year, as well as opportunities for related parts and components driven by product upgrades driven by electrification and intelligence trends.</p><p></li></ul><b>Second, the main line is to improve the dilemma.</b>Waiting for the improvement of China's economic expectations and the improvement of industrial regulatory environment to promote the performance of related listed companies from quantitative change to qualitative change, we will select the alpha in the Internet, property, food and beverage, and medicine.</p><p><ul><li><b>The internet</b>: With the easing of concerns about the delisting of Chinese concept stocks and the improvement of certainty in the regulatory environment, the volatility of industry stock prices is expected to decline. The Internet has shifted from a new economy to a mature format, focusing on performance in the short term. At present, the stock price of the Internet sector implies relatively pessimistic expectations for short-term recovery. If the pressure of epidemic prevention and control eases and the margin of economic recovery improves, the stock price will also be flexible. In the medium term, based on the quadratic growth curve, it is expected to usher in opportunities for differentiation, such as cloud computing and autonomous driving.</p><p></li><li><b>PROPERTY</b>: From the perspective of corporate governance and business operations, property management companies and real estate companies are still highly related. The property management sector is currently unable to get out of the independent market. The stabilization of the real estate sector is an important prerequisite for the restoration of the property management sector. Once the real estate sector is stabilized, property management companies will have better business growth, safer financial status, and valuations will have greater flexibility. We are optimistic about property management companies with high operating independence, strong endogenous growth ability and good profit quality.</p><p></li><li><b>Food and beverage</b>: The overall food and beverage sector represented by the beer and dairy industries has benefited from the continuation of the trend of consumption recovery and the marginal easing of cost pressures such as food prices. In addition, in terms of beer, the hot weather this summer has driven the rapid growth of beer consumption in Q3, which is expected to be realized in subsequent financial reports.</p><p></li><li><b>Pharmaceutical</b>: Continue to be optimistic about \"drugs + upstream + consumer medical care\". (Industrial Securities Medical Team)</p><p>The reasons for optimism about the pharmaceutical sector include: the impact of centralized procurement of generic drugs has gradually bottomed out, the supply side of innovative drugs is expected to give birth to new explosive products (ADC, oligonucleotides, self-immunity, etc.), innovative drugs have gradually begun to commercialize and the value of domestic platforms has emerged (For example, the recent cooperation between Sanofi and Innovent Biologics), and the global competitiveness of domestic companies has gradually improved. Upstream: The performance of many companies in this track is expected to accelerate in the second half of the year, and the independent controllable logic is expected to promote an increase in valuation. In the field of consumer medical care, the current prosperity is maintained and the long-term logic is promising. In the short term, factors such as centralized procurement of dental implants interfere with the sentiment of the sector, and it is in a period of phased adjustment, adjusting and accumulating upward momentum.</p><p></li></ul><b>Third, the main line is to find the allocation value of \"bond-like assets\" in traditional industries.</b>Based on the long-term allocation of state-owned and central enterprise real estate stocks that can obtain low-cost funds and high-quality land reserves, state-owned and central enterprise energy stocks with low valuations and high dividends, and the revaluation of leading financial, transportation, and building materials after waiting for economic expectations to improve.</p><p><ul><li><b>State-owned real estate stocks</b>: At present, the industry is in a vacuum period from the continuous relaxation of policies to the recovery of new home sales, but looking forward to the second half of the year and next year, there are two possible market situations: 1) The recovery of new home sales, and the effect of policy relaxation will continue; 2) The recovery of new home sales is less than expected, and further easing policies will continue to be introduced until the market recovers. In both cases, the systemic risks of real estate will be lifted, and risky real estate companies will continue to clear out. Private real estate companies have neither the will nor the ability to increase leverage, while state-owned real estate companies that can obtain low-cost funds and high-quality land reserves will benefit from the recovery market.</p><p></li><li><b>State-owned energy stocks</b>: From the fluctuation of the game cycle to the allocation of high dividend and value stock leaders. 1) The profit stability of traditional energy leaders has increased relatively. Against the background of energy structure transformation, the new supply of traditional energy has become more restrained. The risk of geopolitical conflicts has increased, the already tightly balanced supply and demand relationship has become more fragile, and the center of energy price fluctuations will increase compared with the past 30 years. 2) Corporate capital expenditures have decreased, the proportion available for dividends has increased significantly, the valuation system has shifted from cyclical stocks to value stocks, and the allocation attributes of bonds have become prominent.</p><p></li><li><b>Finance</b>: Weak economic expectations + rising risks for real estate companies + Under the pressure of social financing trends, the valuation of the financial sector has experienced a significant correction, and the Dividend rate of the Hong Kong stock financial sector has returned to a more attractive position. As economic expectations improve, the industry's pessimistic expectations are expected to ease.</p><p></li><li><b>Delivery</b>: Changes in entry and exit policies, loosening of circuit breaker policies for inter-provincial travel, and high-dividend transportation leaders ushered in opportunities for performance improvement. The General Administration of Customs will launch the ninth edition of the Exit/Entry Health Declaration Card of the People's Republic of China at 0:00 on August 31st. The most obvious change in the ninth edition is that the declaration requirements for nucleic acid testing information, past infection status, and vaccination date of entry and exit personnel have been cancelled. Miao Muyang, director of the Industrial Development Department of the Ministry of Culture and Tourism, said at the press conference on August 24th: \"According to the situation of epidemic prevention and control, we dynamically adjust the opening policy of cultural and tourist places, and further accurate the\" fuse \"area of inter-provincial team tourism to the county level\".</p><p></li><li><b>Building materials</b>: The post-real estate cycle \"down\" has a bottom, and the fundamentals have bottomed out, so it is not advisable to be overly pessimistic; The special bonds vigorously issued in the first half of the year are expected to form the physical workload of infrastructure in the second half of the year, and the infrastructure will be flexible in the second half of the year. Pay attention to the building materials leader whose stock price is at the bottom and the real value of \"cash cow\".</p><p><b>4. Risk warning</b></p><p></li></ul>The global economic growth rate is declining, the monetary policies of China and the United States are not up to expectations, and there are risks in the game between big countries.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Hong Kong stocks continue to see-saw at low levels, and reverse thinking layout is long-term</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHong Kong stocks continue to see-saw at low levels, and reverse thinking layout is long-term\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1065818805\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/ad7f636ec1274a70b86d1fdc1329e0eb);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">张忆东策略世界 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-09-03 10:31</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><b>1. Review: The Hong Kong stock market is repeatedly seesawing at the bottom</b></p><p>In mid-March, we made a judgment on the bottom of the Hong Kong stock market, and predicted turmoil in overseas markets in the second quarter. May-June reminds that the rebound of Hong Kong stocks is difficult to achieve overnight. Compared with 2020, the overseas environment, domestic real estate and repeated epidemics make economic recovery more difficult. In early July, it was pointed out that the epidemic variables resurfaced, and the Hong Kong stock market will be repeatedly tug-of-war at the bottom. At the beginning of August, we continued to emphasize the tug-of-war pattern at the bottom of Hong Kong stocks.</p><p><b>2. Outlook: There are opportunities in the crisis, China's economy is facing pressure, overseas liquidity continues to tighten, and Hong Kong stocks will continue to fight at the bottom</b></p><p>--Although the economic recovery is still weak, Hong Kong stocks already contain many pessimistic expectations, and the profit expectations of Hong Kong stocks in the mid-term report season ushered in an extreme improvement. The 2023 Hang Seng Index, which has been continuously lowered since the second quarter of 2021, consensus expects that the year-on-year growth rate of EPS will stop the downward trend in August 2022. Among them, the information technology industry has rebounded slightly in the last four weeks after experiencing a sharp reduction in profit forecasts.</p><p>--Sino-US regulatory cooperation has made progress, reducing the risk of liquidity shocks caused by the delisting of Chinese concept stocks in Hong Kong stocks, especially Internet companies.</p><p>--Pay attention to the sub-sectors with high prosperity and the turning point of some industries. On August 24th, the executive meeting of the State Council proposed to increase the quota by more than 300 billion yuan on the basis that 300 billion yuan of policy development financial instruments have been put into the project. The advanced manufacturing prosperity supported by policies continues to remain high. The profits of industrial enterprises in July showed that in addition to upstream industries, electrical equipment maintained a high growth rate, and automobiles ushered in significant improvement. Pessimistic expectations for real estate have eased, and US dollar bonds of Chinese real estate have rebounded significantly.</p><p>--The Federal Reserve releases hawks, the 0826 Jackson Hole summit reappears the \"Volcker moment\", and it will take time for overseas liquidity risks to be lifted. 1) Although inflation data fell back in July, inflation is still at a high platform. The labor market remains strong, labor costs are rising, rising food prices, uncertainty in energy prices, continued high rents, and geopolitical risks in Russia and Ukraine are still supporting inflation levels in the United States. 2) The November mid-term elections are just around the corner, and fighting inflation is still the political focus of the White House.</p><p><b>3. Investment strategy: defensive counterattack</b></p><p><ul><li>Main line 1. Select cost-effective stocks in the direction of high prosperity. The energy technology industry chain represented by new energy and new energy vehicles has benefited from improved demand, supply chain recovery, and month-on-month cost reduction.</p><p></li><li>Second, the main line is to improve the dilemma. Waiting for the improvement of China's economic expectations and the improvement of industrial regulatory environment to promote the performance of related listed companies from quantitative change to qualitative change, we will select the alpha in the Internet, property, food and beverage, and medicine.</p><p></li><li>Third, the main line is to find the allocation value of \"bond-like assets\" in traditional industries. Based on the long-term allocation of state-owned and central enterprise real estate stocks that can obtain low-cost funds and high-quality land reserves, state-owned and central enterprise energy stocks with low valuations and high dividends, and the revaluation of leading financial, transportation, and building materials after waiting for economic expectations to improve.</p><p>Risk warning: the global economic growth rate is declining; The monetary policies of China and the United States fell short of expectations; Great power game risk</p><p></li></ul><b>Report text</b></p><p><b>1. Review: The Hong Kong stock market is repeatedly seesawing at the bottom</b></p><p><b>In mid-March, we made a judgment on the bottom of the Hong Kong stock market, and predicted turmoil in overseas markets in the second quarter. May-June reminds that the rebound of Hong Kong stocks is difficult to achieve overnight. Compared with 2020, the overseas environment, domestic real estate and repeated epidemics make economic recovery more difficult. In early July, it was pointed out that the epidemic variables resurfaced, and the Hong Kong stock market will be repeatedly tug-of-war at the bottom. At the beginning of August, we continued to emphasize the tug-of-war pattern at the bottom of Hong Kong stocks.</b></p><p><ul><li>On March 16th, \"Irrational Decline\" and Looking for the Power of Self-confidence \"suggested that investors can be optimistic, downplay the short-term madness of\" Mr. Market \"and look more at the essence of investment-the long-term value of enterprises.</p><p></li><li>On May 3rd, \"It turns warm and cold, and the strategic stalemate stage is expected to start\" judged that the overall tone of the market turned \"warm\": \"The stage of excessive pessimism about China's fundamentals is expected to pass in May, and confidence will gradually recover\", and the \"cold\" level emphasized the adjustment pressure of overseas markets: \"U.S. stocks may repeat the fourth quarter of 2018 in the medium term\". It is pointed out that \"based on the high transmissibility of virus mutation, coordinating epidemic prevention and control and economic and social development faces greater challenges than in 2020\".</p><p></li><li>On June 2, \"Fighting\" Guerrilla Warfare \"during the Strategic Stalemate of Hong Kong Stocks\" made it clear that \"the bottom of the Hong Kong stock market in March can basically be confirmed as the bottom of the market based on multiple factors in political and economic valuations, and the release of systemic risks in the past year or so has basically ended.\", the trend of recovery of China's economy and the performance of listed companies in the medium term can be expected, and we are optimistic about medium-term strategic layout opportunities. At the same time, it pointed out: \"Hong Kong stocks have been devastated by the bear market in the past year or so, and it will take time to rebuild confidence, and it is difficult for the market to be overwhelming and achieve it overnight.\"</p><p></li><li>On July 12, \"In a turbulent world, how to lay out Hong Kong stocks at the bottom\") pointed out that \"under repeated epidemics, it is difficult to boost short-term market confidence.\"</p><p></li><li>On August 3, \"Winning in Chaos, Going Long in China's Advanced Manufacturing Industry\" pointed out that \"the Hong Kong stock market will still be seesawing at the bottom, but the systemic risk is not great.\"</p><p></li></ul><b>2. Outlook: There are opportunities in the crisis, China's economy is under pressure, overseas liquidity continues to tighten, and Hong Kong stocks will continue to fight at the bottom</b></p><p><b>2.1. Although the economic recovery is still weak, Hong Kong stocks already contain many pessimistic expectations, and the profit expectations of Hong Kong stocks in the mid-term report season ushered in an extreme improvement</b></p><p>The 2023 Hang Seng Index, which has been continuously lowered since the second quarter of 2021, consensus expects that the year-on-year growth rate of EPS will stop the downward trend in August 2022. Among them, the information technology industry has rebounded slightly in the last four weeks after experiencing a sharp reduction in profit forecasts.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4abcef7f945380bcf6ed756c9a5d8be0\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"495\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>2.2. Sino-US regulatory cooperation has made progress to reduce the risk of liquidity shocks caused by the delisting of Chinese concept stocks in Hong Kong stocks, especially Internet companies</b></p><p>The risk premium of the Hang Seng Index has remained high since March. Both the risk premium measured by the 10-year U.S. bond yield and the 10-year Chinese Treasury Bond yield are higher than twice the standard deviation above the mean since 2011. The delisting risk of Chinese concept stocks is one of the important reasons that affect the risk appetite of Hong Kong stocks, especially since most Internet companies are listed in Hong Kong and the United States, investors are worried that a large number of delists from U.S. stocks will cause liquidity shocks.</p><p>\"The China Securities Regulatory Commission and the Ministry of Finance of the People's Republic of China signed an audit supervision cooperation agreement with the Public Company Accounting Oversight Board (PCAOB) of the United States on August 26, 2022, and will start relevant cooperation in the near future.\" According to the relevant person in charge of the China Securities Regulatory Commission Answering a reporter's question, \"If the follow-up cooperation can meet their respective regulatory needs, it is expected to solve the audit supervision problem of Chinese concept stocks, thus avoiding passive delisting from the United States.\"</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d0fda8837eeb214c2177d52e76902924\" tg-width=\"1066\" tg-height=\"489\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>2.3. Pay attention to high-prosperity subdivided industries and the turning point of some industries</b></p><p><b>Economic data from July to August show that the economic recovery is weak, and policies will continue to exert efforts to stabilize the economy.</b>On August 24th, the executive meeting of the State Council proposed to increase the quota by more than 300 billion yuan on the basis that 300 billion yuan of policy development financial instruments have been put into the project.</p><p><b>The advanced manufacturing prosperity supported by policies continues to remain high.</b>The profits of industrial enterprises in July showed that in addition to upstream industries, electrical equipment maintained a high growth rate, and automobiles ushered in significant improvement. According to the year-on-year growth rate of cumulative profits from January to July, electrical equipment was 18%; Automobiles were-14%, a significant improvement from the previous value of-25% from January to June.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ffc2a262d06343072f542412d614caf0\" tg-width=\"1051\" tg-height=\"521\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>Pessimistic expectations for real estate have eased, and US dollar bonds of Chinese real estate have rebounded significantly.</b>On August 19, the Dealers Association once again convened a symposium with a number of private real estate companies to discuss ways to support private real estate companies in issuing bonds and financing through ChinaBond to enhance corporate credit enhancement support.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dc39ce31facf981686ad65e0f1417c9b\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"555\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>2.4. The Fed releases hawks, the 0826 Jackson Hole Summit reappears the \"Volcker moment\", and it will take time for overseas liquidity risks to be lifted</b></p><p><b>The 0826 Jackson Hole Summit reappeared the \"Volcker Moment\", verifying our previous judgment: \"Inflation for recession is actually a policy dilemma.\"</b>At the meeting, Powell emphasized that the cost of price instability will be higher than the cost of slowing growth and weak labor market caused by high interest rates; Especially the summary of the historical experience of 1970s, the \"Volcker Moment\" reappears.</p><p>It will take time for the Fed to turn around. 1) Although inflation data fell back in July, inflation is still at a high platform. The labor market remains strong, labor costs are rising, rising food prices, uncertainty in energy prices, continued high rents, and geopolitical risks in Russia and Ukraine are still supporting inflation levels in the United States. 2) The November mid-term elections are just around the corner, and fighting inflation is still the political focus of the White House.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/94d860c5515574a2809997e8b27e9993\" tg-width=\"1073\" tg-height=\"531\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>3. Investment strategy: defensive counterattack</b></p><p><b>Main line 1. Select cost-effective stocks in the direction of high prosperity.</b>The energy technology industry chain represented by new energy and new energy vehicles has benefited from improved demand, supply chain recovery, and month-on-month reduction in costs.</p><p><ul><li><b>Electricity operator</b>: Under the deep concerns about yields and electricity prices, the valuation of the green power sector has experienced a significant correction, and recent events have shown the \"correction\" of vicious competition in the industry. After the sector experienced deep suppression, three ministries and commissions recently established a renewable energy settlement company, and the power grid took the lead in financing to solve the subsidy gap. As one of the important catalysts for the green power industry in the second half of the year, the solution to the subsidy problem is expected to increase the industry's reinvestment capabilities. It is true that the problem of yield is difficult to solve in the short term, but the current stock price of the sector has a sufficient margin of safety, and we are optimistic about the growth of installed capacity.</p><p></li><li><b>Wind power</b>: Wind power companies have successively disclosed semi-annual reports, showing that the epidemic situation and high raw material prices in the first half of the year have led to tight production capacity and pressure on profits. The current valuation has fallen back to historical lows. Construction will start in the second half of the year, raw material prices will both improve, and profits are expected to usher in recovery. Companies with better cost control and transmission capabilities are recommended.</p><p></li><li><b>New energy vehicle industry chain</b>: The recent sales data of key car companies exceeded expectations, and a number of new energy models will be launched soon this year. In terms of investment: Benefiting from this round of stimulus policies, new energy and traditional car companies whose sales scale and profitability are expected to increase rapidly in the second half of the year, as well as opportunities for related parts and components driven by product upgrades driven by electrification and intelligence trends.</p><p></li></ul><b>Second, the main line is to improve the dilemma.</b>Waiting for the improvement of China's economic expectations and the improvement of industrial regulatory environment to promote the performance of related listed companies from quantitative change to qualitative change, we will select the alpha in the Internet, property, food and beverage, and medicine.</p><p><ul><li><b>The internet</b>: With the easing of concerns about the delisting of Chinese concept stocks and the improvement of certainty in the regulatory environment, the volatility of industry stock prices is expected to decline. The Internet has shifted from a new economy to a mature format, focusing on performance in the short term. At present, the stock price of the Internet sector implies relatively pessimistic expectations for short-term recovery. If the pressure of epidemic prevention and control eases and the margin of economic recovery improves, the stock price will also be flexible. In the medium term, based on the quadratic growth curve, it is expected to usher in opportunities for differentiation, such as cloud computing and autonomous driving.</p><p></li><li><b>PROPERTY</b>: From the perspective of corporate governance and business operations, property management companies and real estate companies are still highly related. The property management sector is currently unable to get out of the independent market. The stabilization of the real estate sector is an important prerequisite for the restoration of the property management sector. Once the real estate sector is stabilized, property management companies will have better business growth, safer financial status, and valuations will have greater flexibility. We are optimistic about property management companies with high operating independence, strong endogenous growth ability and good profit quality.</p><p></li><li><b>Food and beverage</b>: The overall food and beverage sector represented by the beer and dairy industries has benefited from the continuation of the trend of consumption recovery and the marginal easing of cost pressures such as food prices. In addition, in terms of beer, the hot weather this summer has driven the rapid growth of beer consumption in Q3, which is expected to be realized in subsequent financial reports.</p><p></li><li><b>Pharmaceutical</b>: Continue to be optimistic about \"drugs + upstream + consumer medical care\". (Industrial Securities Medical Team)</p><p>The reasons for optimism about the pharmaceutical sector include: the impact of centralized procurement of generic drugs has gradually bottomed out, the supply side of innovative drugs is expected to give birth to new explosive products (ADC, oligonucleotides, self-immunity, etc.), innovative drugs have gradually begun to commercialize and the value of domestic platforms has emerged (For example, the recent cooperation between Sanofi and Innovent Biologics), and the global competitiveness of domestic companies has gradually improved. Upstream: The performance of many companies in this track is expected to accelerate in the second half of the year, and the independent controllable logic is expected to promote an increase in valuation. In the field of consumer medical care, the current prosperity is maintained and the long-term logic is promising. In the short term, factors such as centralized procurement of dental implants interfere with the sentiment of the sector, and it is in a period of phased adjustment, adjusting and accumulating upward momentum.</p><p></li></ul><b>Third, the main line is to find the allocation value of \"bond-like assets\" in traditional industries.</b>Based on the long-term allocation of state-owned and central enterprise real estate stocks that can obtain low-cost funds and high-quality land reserves, state-owned and central enterprise energy stocks with low valuations and high dividends, and the revaluation of leading financial, transportation, and building materials after waiting for economic expectations to improve.</p><p><ul><li><b>State-owned real estate stocks</b>: At present, the industry is in a vacuum period from the continuous relaxation of policies to the recovery of new home sales, but looking forward to the second half of the year and next year, there are two possible market situations: 1) The recovery of new home sales, and the effect of policy relaxation will continue; 2) The recovery of new home sales is less than expected, and further easing policies will continue to be introduced until the market recovers. In both cases, the systemic risks of real estate will be lifted, and risky real estate companies will continue to clear out. Private real estate companies have neither the will nor the ability to increase leverage, while state-owned real estate companies that can obtain low-cost funds and high-quality land reserves will benefit from the recovery market.</p><p></li><li><b>State-owned energy stocks</b>: From the fluctuation of the game cycle to the allocation of high dividend and value stock leaders. 1) The profit stability of traditional energy leaders has increased relatively. Against the background of energy structure transformation, the new supply of traditional energy has become more restrained. The risk of geopolitical conflicts has increased, the already tightly balanced supply and demand relationship has become more fragile, and the center of energy price fluctuations will increase compared with the past 30 years. 2) Corporate capital expenditures have decreased, the proportion available for dividends has increased significantly, the valuation system has shifted from cyclical stocks to value stocks, and the allocation attributes of bonds have become prominent.</p><p></li><li><b>Finance</b>: Weak economic expectations + rising risks for real estate companies + Under the pressure of social financing trends, the valuation of the financial sector has experienced a significant correction, and the Dividend rate of the Hong Kong stock financial sector has returned to a more attractive position. As economic expectations improve, the industry's pessimistic expectations are expected to ease.</p><p></li><li><b>Delivery</b>: Changes in entry and exit policies, loosening of circuit breaker policies for inter-provincial travel, and high-dividend transportation leaders ushered in opportunities for performance improvement. The General Administration of Customs will launch the ninth edition of the Exit/Entry Health Declaration Card of the People's Republic of China at 0:00 on August 31st. The most obvious change in the ninth edition is that the declaration requirements for nucleic acid testing information, past infection status, and vaccination date of entry and exit personnel have been cancelled. Miao Muyang, director of the Industrial Development Department of the Ministry of Culture and Tourism, said at the press conference on August 24th: \"According to the situation of epidemic prevention and control, we dynamically adjust the opening policy of cultural and tourist places, and further accurate the\" fuse \"area of inter-provincial team tourism to the county level\".</p><p></li><li><b>Building materials</b>: The post-real estate cycle \"down\" has a bottom, and the fundamentals have bottomed out, so it is not advisable to be overly pessimistic; The special bonds vigorously issued in the first half of the year are expected to form the physical workload of infrastructure in the second half of the year, and the infrastructure will be flexible in the second half of the year. Pay attention to the building materials leader whose stock price is at the bottom and the real value of \"cash cow\".</p><p><b>4. Risk warning</b></p><p></li></ul>The global economic growth rate is declining, the monetary policies of China and the United States are not up to expectations, and there are risks in the game between big countries.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c1cb237e736a4e03c939622e7b71e8e7","relate_stocks":{"HSTECH":"恒生科技指数","HSI":"恒生指数"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1179759462","content_text":"一、回顾：港股行情在底部反复拉锯3月中旬做出港股市场底的判断，并预判2季度海外市场动荡。5-6月提示港股反弹行情难一蹴而就，相比2020年，海外环境、国内房地产和疫情反复使得经济复苏的难度更大。7月上旬指出疫情变数再起，港股行情将在底部反复拉锯。8月初继续强调港股底部拉锯的格局。二、展望：危中有机，中国经济面临压力、海外流动性继续紧缩，港股仍将继续在底部拉锯战——经济复苏虽然依然较弱，但港股已经包含了诸多悲观预期，中报季港股盈利预期迎来否极之后的改善。自2021年二季度以来持续下调的2023年恒生指数一致预期EPS同比增速，在2022年8月止住了下滑趋势。其中，资讯科技业在经历了盈利预测大幅下调后，最近4周已经出现了小幅回升。——中美监管合作取得进展，降低港股尤其是互联网公司受中概股退市影响引发流动性冲击的风险。——关注高景气的细分行业以及部分行业的转机。8月24日国务院常务会议提出在3000亿元政策性开发性金融工具已落到项目的基础上，再增加3000亿元以上额度。政策支持下的先进制造业景气继续维持高位。7月工业企业利润显示除了上游行业，电气设备维持了高增速，汽车迎来明显改善。房地产悲观预期有所缓解，中资地产美元债显著反弹。——联储放鹰，0826 Jackson Hole峰会重现“沃尔克时刻”，海外流动性风险解除尚待时日。1）虽然7月通胀数据回落，但通胀仍处于高平台。劳动力市场维持强劲、劳动力成本上升，食品价格上涨、能源价格的不确定性、租金持续高位、俄乌地缘风险等问题仍均支撑着美国的通胀水平。2）11月中期选举在即，抗通胀仍是白宫政治重心。三、投资策略：防守反击主线一、高景气方向精选性价比高的股票。以新能源、新能源车为代表的能源科技产业链，受益于需求改善、供应链恢复、成本环比下降。主线二、困境改善。等待中国经济预期改善和产业监管环境改善对相关上市公司业绩从量变到质变的推动，精选互联网、物业、食品饮料、医药中的阿尔法。主线三、在传统行业中寻找“类债券资产”的配置价值。立足长期配置能够获取低成本资金和优质土储的国企央企地产股、低估值高分红的国企央企能源股，以及等待经济预期改善之后金融、交运、建材龙头价值重估。风险提示：全球经济增速下行；中、美货币政策不达预期；大国博弈风险报告正文1、回顾：港股行情在底部反复拉锯3月中旬做出港股市场底的判断，并预判2季度海外市场动荡。5-6月提示港股反弹行情难一蹴而就，相比2020年，海外环境、国内房地产和疫情反复使得经济复苏的难度更大。7月上旬指出疫情变数再起，港股行情将在底部反复拉锯。8月初继续强调港股底部拉锯的格局。3月16日《“非理性下跌”及找寻“自信的力量”》建议投资者可以乐观一点，淡化“市场先生”的短期癫狂，多看投资的本质——企业长期价值。5月3日《乍暖还寒，战略相持阶段有望展开》判断市场整体基调转“暖”：“对中国基本面预期过度悲观的阶段5月份有望过去，信心逐步恢复”，“还寒”层面强调海外市场的调整压力：“美股中期可能重演‘2018年四季度’”。指出“基于病毒变异的高传播性，统筹疫情防控和经济社会发展面临比2020年更大的挑战”。6月2日《港股战略相持期打好“游击战”》明确“3月份港股市场的底部，基于政治经济估值多因素，基本可以确认为市场底，过去一年多的系统性风险释放基本结束”，中期中国经济、上市公司业绩复苏的趋势可以期待，看好中期战略性布局机会。同时指出：“港股经历过去一年多的熊市摧残，信心的重建尚需时日，行情很难势如破竹、一蹴而就”。7月12日《动荡的世界，底部拉锯的港股如何布局》）指出“疫情反复之下，短期市场信心难提振”。8月3日《乱中取胜，做多中国先进制造业》指出“港股市场仍将在底部区域拉锯，但是，系统性风险不大”。2、展望：危中有机，中国经济面临压力、海外流动性继续紧缩，港股仍将继续在底部拉锯战2.1、经济复苏虽然依然较弱，但港股已经包含了诸多悲观预期，中报季港股盈利预期迎来否极之后的改善自2021年二季度以来持续下调的2023年恒生指数一致预期EPS同比增速，在2022年8月止住了下滑趋势。其中，资讯科技业在经历了盈利预测大幅下调后，最近4周已经出现了小幅回升。2.2、中美监管合作取得进展，降低港股尤其是互联网公司受中概股退市影响引发流动性冲击的风险3月以来恒指的风险溢价一直居高不下，无论是以10年期美债收益率还是10年期中国国债收益率衡量的风险溢价都高于2011年以来均值以上两倍标准差。中概股退市风险是影响港股风险偏好的重要原因之一，尤其是互联网公司多为港美两地上市，投资者担忧从美股大量退市引发流动性冲击。“中国证券监督管理委员会、中华人民共和国财政部于2022年8月26日与美国公众公司会计监督委员会（PCAOB）签署审计监管合作协议，将于近期启动相关合作。”根据中国证监会有关负责人答记者问，“如果后续合作可以满足各自监管需求，则有望解决中概股审计监管问题，从而避免自美被动退市”。2.3、关注高景气的细分行业以及部分行业的转机7-8月经济数据显示经济复苏力度乏力，政策将继续发力稳固经济。8月24日国务院常务会议提出在3000亿元政策性开发性金融工具已落到项目的基础上，再增加3000亿元以上额度。政策支持下的先进制造业景气继续维持高位。7月工业企业利润显示除了上游行业，电气设备维持了高增速，汽车迎来明显改善。1-7月累计利润同比增速来看，电气设备为18%；汽车为-14%，较前值1-6月的-25%显著改善。房地产悲观预期有所缓解，中资地产美元债显著反弹。8月19日，交易商协会再次召集多家民营房企召开座谈会，探讨通过中债增进公司增信支持的方式支持民营房企发债融资。2.4、联储放鹰，0826 Jackson Hole峰会重现“沃尔克时刻”，海外流动性风险解除尚待时日0826 Jackson Hole峰会重现“沃尔克时刻”，验证了我们此前的判断：“通胀换衰退，实为政策窘境”。会上鲍威尔重点强调价格不稳定的代价，将比高利率带来增长放缓、劳动力市场疲软的代价更高；特别是对70年代历史经验的总结，“沃尔克时刻”重现。联储转向尚需时日。1）虽然7月通胀数据回落，但通胀仍处于高平台。劳动力市场维持强劲、劳动力成本上升，食品价格上涨、能源价格的不确定性、租金持续高位、俄乌地缘风险等问题仍均支撑着美国的通胀水平。2）11月中期选举在即，抗通胀仍是白宫政治重心。3、投资策略：防守反击主线一、高景气方向精选性价比高的股票。以新能源、新能源车为代表的能源科技产业链，受益于需求改善、供应链恢复、成本环比下降。电力运营商：在收益率和电价的深度担忧下，绿电板块估值经历了显著回调，近期也有事件显示出对行业恶性竞争的“纠偏”。在板块经历深度压制后，近期，三部委成立可再生能源结算公司，电网牵头融资解决补贴缺口。作为绿电行业下半年重要催化之一，补贴问的解决有望增加行业再投资能力。诚然，收益率问题短期难得到解决，但当前板块股价具备足够安全边际，看好装机带来量增的成长性。风电：风电企业陆续披露半年报，显示上半年疫情和原材料价格居高导致产能吃紧，盈利承压。当前估值回落至历史低点，下半年开工、原材料价格将双双迎来改善，盈利有望迎来修复，推荐成本控制及传导能力较好的企业。新能源车产业链: 重点车企近期销量数据超预期，年内多款新能源车型即将推出。投资方面把握：受益本轮刺激政策，下半年销量规模及盈利能力有望实现快速提升的新能源及传统车企，以及电动化及智能化趋势推动产品升级下，相关零部件的机会。主线二、困境改善。等待中国经济预期改善和产业监管环境改善对相关上市公司业绩从量变到质变的推动，精选互联网、物业、食品饮料、医药中的阿尔法。互联网：中概股退市担忧缓解、监管环境确定性提升下，行业股价波动性有望下降。互联网已从新经济转向成熟业态，短期注重业绩，当下互联网板块股价隐含的对短期复苏的预期相对悲观，若疫情防控压力缓解、经济复苏边际转好，股价也有弹性。中期基于二次增长曲线有望迎来分化的机会，比如与云计算、自动驾驶等。物业管理：从公司治理和业务经营层面，物管公司和地产公司仍关连度较高，物管板块目前尚不能走出独立行情，地产板块企稳是物管板块修复的重要前提。地产板块一旦稳住，物管公司有更好的业务成长性，更安全的财务状态，估值将会有更大的弹性。我们看好经营独立性高、内生增长能力强、盈利质量佳的物管公司。食品饮料：啤酒、乳业为代表的食品饮料整体板块受益于消费复苏的趋势延续，以及粮价等成本压力边际缓解。此外，啤酒方面，今年夏季的炎热天气带动Q3啤酒消费高速增长，有望在后续财报中兑现。医药：继续看好“药品+上游+消费医疗”。（兴业证券医药团队）药品板块看好理由包括：仿制药集采影响已逐渐见底、创新药供给端有望诞生新的爆品（ADC、寡核苷酸、自免等）、创新药逐步开始商业化且国内平台价值显现（例如近期赛诺菲和信达生物的合作）、国内公司全球竞争力逐步提升。上游：该赛道较多公司业绩下半年有望加速，且自主可控逻辑有望促使估值提升。消费医疗领域，当前景气度维持、长期逻辑看好。短期受种植牙集采等因素干扰板块情绪，处于阶段性调整期，调整积蓄向上动能。主线三、在传统行业中寻找“类债券资产”的配置价值。立足长期配置能够获取低成本资金和优质土储的国企央企地产股、低估值高分红的国企央企能源股，以及等待经济预期改善之后金融、交运、建材龙头价值重估。国企地产股：目前行业处于政策不断放松到新房销售复苏的真空期，但是展望下半年以及明年的市场可能的两种情况：1）新房销售复苏，政策放松的效应将持续；2）新房销售复苏不及预期，进一步的放松政策将持续推出，直到市场复苏。在两种情况下，房地产的系统性风险会解除，风险房企继续出清，民企地产公司既没有意愿也没有能力加杠杆，而能够获取低成本资金和优质土储的国企地产公司将受益复苏的市场。国企能源股：从博弈周期波动，转向配置高分红、价值股龙头。1）传统能源龙头的利润稳定性相对抬升。能源结构转变大背景下，传统能源的新增供给更加克制。地缘政治冲突风险提升，本就紧平衡的供需关系变得更加脆弱，能源价格波动中枢将较过去30年提升。2）企业资本开支降低，可用于分红的比例大幅提高，估值体系从周期股走向价值股，类债券的配置属性凸显。金融：经济预期偏弱+房企风险抬头+社融趋势承压下，金融板块估值经历显著回调，港股金融板块股息率重新回到较高吸引力的位置，后续随着经济预期改善，行业的悲观预期有望迎来缓解。交运：出入境政策变化，跨省游熔断政策松绑，高分红的交运龙头迎来业绩改善契机。海关总署将于8月31日零时启用第九版《中华人民共和国出／入境健康申明卡》。第九版最为明显的变化是，取消了对出入境人员核酸检测信息、既往感染情况、疫苗接种日期的申报要求。文化和旅游部产业发展司司长缪沐阳8月24日在发布会上表示：“根据疫情防控形势，我们动态调整文化和旅游场所的开放政策，并将跨省团队旅游“熔断”区域进一步精准到县域”。建材：地产后周期“下”有底，基本面筑底，不宜过度悲观；上半年大力发放的专项债有望在下半年形成基建实物工作量，下半年基建有弹性。关注股价处于底部、“现金牛”真价值的建材龙头。4、风险提示全球经济增速下行、中、美货币政策不达预期、大国博弈风险。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"HSI":0.9,"HSTECH":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":915,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9056578485,"gmtCreate":1655072315847,"gmtModify":1676535553681,"author":{"id":"4094536006197120","authorId":"4094536006197120","name":"不死鸟.","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/58aa91ee114515837a7c24d97a1ac173","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4094536006197120","idStr":"4094536006197120"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👍","listText":"👍","text":"👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9056578485","repostId":"2242544980","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2242544980","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1655026415,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2242544980?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-06-12 17:33","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"How to compete with Apple Watch? Swiss watch industry: getting even more trenched!","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2242544980","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"当中低端需求被智能穿戴设备挤压，瑞士钟表业将重心转向高端产品。据瑞士钟表业联合会的数据显示，2021年瑞士钟表业创下历史最好成绩，收入达到212亿瑞士法郎（约合215亿美元），同比增长了约三分之一。美","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Mid-to low-end demand<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/5RE.SI\">smart</a>As wearable devices are squeezed, the Swiss watch industry shifts its focus to high-end products.</p><p>According to data from the Swiss Watch Industry Federation, the Swiss watch industry will achieve its best result in history in 2021, with revenue reaching 21.2 billion Swiss francs (about 21.5 billion US dollars), a year-on-year increase of about one-third. Sales in the U.S. market increased by 28%.</p><p><b>At the same time, sales are declining.</b>Swiss watchmakers sold 15.7 million watches last year, half of what they did a decade ago. The association said that the main reason for the decline in sales was<b>Economy watches vs.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>The smart watches produced by the company form direct competition.</b></p><p>As the pandemic subsided, the overall boom in luxury goods drove a recovery in demand for high-end watches.</p><p>As for the rising smart wearable devices, the association said that although some analysts predict that classic mechanical watches will soon be \"swept out\" by smart watches, the demand for high-priced models shows that consumers are interested in traditional watches. enduring.</p><p>Georges Kern, chief executive of Breitling SA, argues that an expensive watch is more like a piece of collectible jewelry,<b>Far from being an obstacle, traditional low functionality lies at the heart of its appeal</b>：</p><p>\"People want to balance the overkill of the digital age.\" \"I don't know anyone who has an iPhone or a watch collection-there's no emotion in it, it's disposable.\" Other brands are seeing this trend and starting to add high-end styles to their product lines.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/0HV2.UK\">Hermes International Group</a>(Hermès International SCA) recently reported an increase in watch sales, which analysts attributed to the luxury goods company abandoning relatively affordable products and starting to target wealthy customer groups. Recently, this company launched a pocket watch with T-Rex pattern spelled out of leather, which is worth 300,000 euros, or about 315,000 US dollars.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cc80986a26500318db48e6e48c5f0200\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"683\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>However, not all watch producers admire this trend. Rolf Studer, CEO of watch manufacturer Oris SA, said,<b>Excessive price increases may make Swiss watches too elitist.</b></p><p>Analysts are also warning, with Oliver Müller, founder of Swiss consultancy LuxeConsult, pointing out that many other watch brands are struggling to grow,<b>Reliance on watches sold in small quantities but at high prices could jeopardize the industry structure</b>：</p><p>\"It's a risky game: they have to be very careful not to make it too small, too exclusive.\" According to<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a>It is estimated that there are currently around 350 Swiss watch brands, but four independent watchmakers-Audemars Piguet Holdings, Patek Philippe, Richard Mille Watch and Rolex-<b>Accounted for 61% of the sector's 2021 profit of CHF 8.5 billion.</b></p><p>Müller also says there is another danger of over-elitising Swiss watches:<b>When sales drop to a critical level, suppliers will start to close down, triggering a series of closures of small brands that can't get parts.</b></p><p></body></html></p>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>How to compete with Apple Watch? Swiss watch industry: getting even more trenched!</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHow to compete with Apple Watch? Swiss watch industry: getting even more trenched!\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-06-12 17:33</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Mid-to low-end demand<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/5RE.SI\">smart</a>As wearable devices are squeezed, the Swiss watch industry shifts its focus to high-end products.</p><p>According to data from the Swiss Watch Industry Federation, the Swiss watch industry will achieve its best result in history in 2021, with revenue reaching 21.2 billion Swiss francs (about 21.5 billion US dollars), a year-on-year increase of about one-third. Sales in the U.S. market increased by 28%.</p><p><b>At the same time, sales are declining.</b>Swiss watchmakers sold 15.7 million watches last year, half of what they did a decade ago. The association said that the main reason for the decline in sales was<b>Economy watches vs.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>The smart watches produced by the company form direct competition.</b></p><p>As the pandemic subsided, the overall boom in luxury goods drove a recovery in demand for high-end watches.</p><p>As for the rising smart wearable devices, the association said that although some analysts predict that classic mechanical watches will soon be \"swept out\" by smart watches, the demand for high-priced models shows that consumers are interested in traditional watches. enduring.</p><p>Georges Kern, chief executive of Breitling SA, argues that an expensive watch is more like a piece of collectible jewelry,<b>Far from being an obstacle, traditional low functionality lies at the heart of its appeal</b>：</p><p>\"People want to balance the overkill of the digital age.\" \"I don't know anyone who has an iPhone or a watch collection-there's no emotion in it, it's disposable.\" Other brands are seeing this trend and starting to add high-end styles to their product lines.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/0HV2.UK\">Hermes International Group</a>(Hermès International SCA) recently reported an increase in watch sales, which analysts attributed to the luxury goods company abandoning relatively affordable products and starting to target wealthy customer groups. Recently, this company launched a pocket watch with T-Rex pattern spelled out of leather, which is worth 300,000 euros, or about 315,000 US dollars.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cc80986a26500318db48e6e48c5f0200\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"683\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>However, not all watch producers admire this trend. Rolf Studer, CEO of watch manufacturer Oris SA, said,<b>Excessive price increases may make Swiss watches too elitist.</b></p><p>Analysts are also warning, with Oliver Müller, founder of Swiss consultancy LuxeConsult, pointing out that many other watch brands are struggling to grow,<b>Reliance on watches sold in small quantities but at high prices could jeopardize the industry structure</b>：</p><p>\"It's a risky game: they have to be very careful not to make it too small, too exclusive.\" According to<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a>It is estimated that there are currently around 350 Swiss watch brands, but four independent watchmakers-Audemars Piguet Holdings, Patek Philippe, Richard Mille Watch and Rolex-<b>Accounted for 61% of the sector's 2021 profit of CHF 8.5 billion.</b></p><p>Müller also says there is another danger of over-elitising Swiss watches:<b>When sales drop to a critical level, suppliers will start to close down, triggering a series of closures of small brands that can't get parts.</b></p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3661732\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cc80986a26500318db48e6e48c5f0200","relate_stocks":{"BK4505":"高瓴资本持仓","BK4515":"5G概念","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","BK4566":"资本集团","BK4579":"人工智能","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","BK4507":"流媒体概念","BK4170":"电脑硬件、储存设备及电脑周边","BK4574":"无人驾驶","BK4573":"虚拟现实","AAPL":"苹果","BK4581":"高盛持仓","BK4532":"文艺复兴科技持仓","BK4554":"元宇宙及AR概念","BK4512":"苹果概念","BK4501":"段永平概念","BK4527":"明星科技股","BK4553":"喜马拉雅资本持仓","BK4571":"数字音乐概念","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BK4576":"AR","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","BK4575":"芯片概念"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3661732","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2242544980","content_text":"当中低端需求被智能穿戴设备挤压，瑞士钟表业将重心转向高端产品。据瑞士钟表业联合会的数据显示，2021年瑞士钟表业创下历史最好成绩，收入达到212亿瑞士法郎（约合215亿美元），同比增长了约三分之一。美国市场的销量增长了28%。与此同时，销量却在下滑。瑞士钟表商去年售出了1570万只手表，仅为十年前的一半。该协会表示，销量下滑的主要原因是经济型手表与苹果公司生产的智能手表形成了直接竞争。随着疫情的消退，奢侈品的整体繁荣推动了高端手表需求的复苏。而对于正在崛起的智能可穿戴设备，该协会表示，尽管一些分析师预测经典机械表很快就会被智能手表“扫地出门”，但对高价位型号的需求表明消费者对传统手表的兴趣经久不衰。百年灵公司(Breitling SA)首席执行长Georges Kern则认为，一块昂贵的手表更像是一件可收藏的珠宝，传统的低功能性非但不是一个障碍，反而是其吸引力的核心所在：“人们想要平衡数字时代的过度杀戮（overkill）。”“我不知道有谁会收藏苹果手机或手表——这里面没有感情，用完即弃。”其他品牌也看到了这一趋势，开始在产品线中增加高端款式。爱马仕国际集团（Hermès International SCA）最近报告了手表销售的增长，分析师将此归因于这家奢侈品公司放弃了相对实惠的产品，开始针对富裕客户群发力。最近这家公司推出了一款用皮革拼出霸王龙图案的怀表，价值30万欧元，约合31.5万美元。然而，并非所有钟表生产商都推崇这一趋势。手表制造商Oris SA的首席执行官Rolf Studer表示，过度涨价可能会使瑞士手表过于精英化。分析师也在发出警告，瑞士咨询公司LuxeConsult的创始人Oliver Müller指出，许多其他手表品牌正在艰难地增长，依赖销售数量少但价格高的手表可能会危及行业结构：“这是一场冒险的游戏：他们必须非常小心，不要把它做得太小，太排外。”据摩根士丹利估计，目前大约有350个瑞士手表品牌，但四家独立制表商——爱彼控股公司、百达翡丽公司、理查德米勒钟表公司和劳力士公司——占据了该行业2021年85亿瑞士法郎利润的61%。Müller还表示，使瑞士手表过度精英化还有一个危险：当销量下降到一个临界水平，供应商将开始倒闭，引发一连串无法获得零件的小品牌接连倒闭。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":469,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9011838593,"gmtCreate":1648853230323,"gmtModify":1676534409032,"author":{"id":"4094536006197120","authorId":"4094536006197120","name":"不死鸟.","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/58aa91ee114515837a7c24d97a1ac173","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4094536006197120","idStr":"4094536006197120"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/AAPL\">$苹果(AAPL)$</a>200","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/AAPL\">$苹果(AAPL)$</a>200","text":"$苹果(AAPL)$200","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/a93600d0119e1b74693d715670825851","width":"1080","height":"3509"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9011838593","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":525,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9060989472,"gmtCreate":1651096921612,"gmtModify":1676534846733,"author":{"id":"4094536006197120","authorId":"4094536006197120","name":"不死鸟.","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/58aa91ee114515837a7c24d97a1ac173","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4094536006197120","idStr":"4094536006197120"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"ok","listText":"ok","text":"ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9060989472","repostId":"1192272759","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1192272759","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1651073134,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1192272759?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-04-27 23:25","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"It has soared nearly 12% this year! How long can this sector be hot?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1192272759","media":"中国证券报","summary":"从2131.28点的阶段低点，到3342.03点的7年来新高，2021年11月至今，A股煤炭板块的市场表现一骑绝尘。虽经历回调，煤炭板块今年来仍有近12%的涨幅。在业内机构看来，煤价走高与基本面向好，","content":"<p><div>From a stage low of 2131.28 points to a seven-year high of 3342.03 points, the market performance of the A-share coal sector has been unparalleled since November 2021. Despite the correction, the coal sector still has an increase of nearly 12% this year. In the eyes of industry organizations, higher coal prices and good fundamentals have jointly promoted the upward trend of the coal sector. Factors such as the subsequent easing of the epidemic and the increase in downstream demand are also expected to make the prices of coke, coking coal, and thermal coal have room or momentum to rise. Some institutions said that they are optimistic about the current coal sector and recommend paying attention to targets with stable performance and high dividends. Multi-factor resonance boosts the market higher in April...</p><p><a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/IC64m2FBxu0O_k_fRaKl9Q\">Web link</a></div></p>","source":"zgzqb","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>It has soared nearly 12% this year! How long can this sector be hot?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIt has soared nearly 12% this year! How long can this sector be hot?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">中国证券报</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-04-27 23:25</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><div>From a stage low of 2131.28 points to a seven-year high of 3342.03 points, the market performance of the A-share coal sector has been unparalleled since November 2021. Despite the correction, the coal sector still has an increase of nearly 12% this year. In the eyes of industry organizations, higher coal prices and good fundamentals have jointly promoted the upward trend of the coal sector. Factors such as the subsequent easing of the epidemic and the increase in downstream demand are also expected to make the prices of coke, coking coal, and thermal coal have room or momentum to rise. Some institutions said that they are optimistic about the current coal sector and recommend paying attention to targets with stable performance and high dividends. Multi-factor resonance boosts the market higher in April...</p><p><a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/IC64m2FBxu0O_k_fRaKl9Q\">Web link</a></div></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/IC64m2FBxu0O_k_fRaKl9Q\">中国证券报</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a5d11890cd6ccd454a56d86737fd3353","relate_stocks":{"000001.SH":"上证指数"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/IC64m2FBxu0O_k_fRaKl9Q","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1192272759","content_text":"从2131.28点的阶段低点，到3342.03点的7年来新高，2021年11月至今，A股煤炭板块的市场表现一骑绝尘。虽经历回调，煤炭板块今年来仍有近12%的涨幅。在业内机构看来，煤价走高与基本面向好，合力推动了煤炭板块上行。疫情后续缓和及下游需求提升等因素，也有望使得焦炭、焦煤、动力煤价格存在上涨空间或动力。一些机构表示，看好当前煤炭板块，建议关注业绩稳定且高分红标的。多因素共振助推行情走高4月27日，煤炭行业板块（申万一级行业）随着A股市场的大幅反弹而走高，收盘上涨4.10%。年初至今，煤炭板块累计涨幅达11.94%，超越其他30个申万一级行业表现，也是今年以来唯一取得正收益的板块。拉长时间来看，煤炭板块本轮上涨行情从2020年7月启动，到2021年9月维持了近1年的上涨态势，彼时包括煤炭在内的诸多周期品板块都有不俗表现，周期股行情成为市场资金追逐的对象；2021年9月煤炭板块迎来2个月的下探行情，而后板块再度走高，于2022年4月15日盘中创出7年多以来新高。图片来源：Wind中国证券报记者梳理机构观点发现，价格持续上涨是推动煤炭行业景气度提升的主要推手之一，俄乌冲突引发欧美多国宣布禁止进口俄罗斯煤炭，进一步加剧全球范围内能源价格的走高。Wind数据显示，截至4月27日，焦炭、焦煤、动力煤期货主力合约价格年初以来均实现了21%以上的涨幅。图片来源：WindWind数据显示，目前已披露2021年年报的煤炭上市公司中，超过20家归母净利润同比增长，其中过半数增幅超过100%。昊华能源2021年归母净利润同比增长超4100%，陕西黑猫2021年归母净利润同比增长超670%，兰花科创2021年归母净利润同比增长近528%。国家统计局4月27日披露数据显示，能源保供措施有效推进，今年一季度煤炭等能源产品生产较快增长，煤炭采选业3月PPI同比涨幅扩大至53.9%，带动一季度行业利润增长1.89倍。关注配置机遇从上周以来，煤炭板块随着A股整体回调而回落。但从估值角度看，截至4月27日煤炭板块市盈率（TTM）仍位于过去5年65.49%的分位点，3月至今动力煤期货主力合约价格也已小幅走低。对于煤炭板块后市基本面及行情走势，当前多数机构仍然持乐观态度。在国盛证券看来，大秦线短时间内难以保持满发状态，后续进口煤也可能明显减少，若沿海的低库存问题不能得到解决，即使步入淡季，动力煤煤价在阶段性下跌后仍会再度上涨；焦煤方面，短期内下游需求仍有提升空间，叠加焦钢企业低库存，下游主动补库动力充足，价格将再度强势拉涨；焦炭方面，后续随着疫情缓和，在钢厂铁水产量复苏下，价格存上涨空间。从公募基金持仓情况看，今年一季度煤炭板块的仓位提升，一定程度上也印证了机构对板块价值的看好。据民生证券统计，截至今年一季度末，公募基金持有煤炭股总市值为276.84亿元，较2021年四季度末的89.5亿元增长209.33%。从占比来看，一季度公募基金筹码集中在动力煤龙头，对焦煤的持仓有所上升。在民生证券看来，后期随着疫情得到有效控制，叠加地产基建投资刺激等因素，动力煤后续价格有望回升，焦煤需求也有望受到提振。信达证券指出，现阶段行业基本面、政策底层逻辑与直接效果均利好煤炭板块估值修复提升，再考虑今年上半年业绩高增的确定性，当前是逢低配置煤炭板块的合理阶段。继续看多煤炭板块，建议关注煤炭的配置机遇。对于具体标的选择，机构青睐业绩稳定且高分红标的。开源证券指出，近期多家煤企一季度业绩超出预期，多数企业的年化估值水平仅为4倍或5倍，安全边际高。此外，稳增长的相应政策有望继续出台，需求预期仍将向好。配置上，建议关注业绩稳健且高分红受益标的。此外，具有成长性预期受益标的、新产业转型受益标的以及债务重组受益标的也值得关注。值得注意的是，自5月1日起，国家发改委2月印发的《关于进一步完善煤炭市场价格形成机制的通知》（发改价格〔2022〕303号）将正式实施，该通知明确了煤炭（动力煤）中长期交易价格的合理区间。发改委也明确，将引导煤炭价格运行在合理区间，保障能源安全稳定供应。开源证券认为，煤企短期高业绩已逐步得到市场认可，中长期的业绩平稳释放是引导煤炭股估值重塑的关键因素。煤炭板块投资逻辑或主要围绕“稳增长”与“转型”两大主线：基建地产链条受益，利好煤焦钢产业链，且钢铁碳达峰延缓利好炼焦煤需求；在碳中和背景下，煤企新增产能意愿明显下降，内生增长不足但外延式增长将成为主流，煤企高盈利有能力做转型。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"000001.SH":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":695,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9084394685,"gmtCreate":1650808063068,"gmtModify":1676534796121,"author":{"id":"4094536006197120","authorId":"4094536006197120","name":"不死鸟.","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/58aa91ee114515837a7c24d97a1ac173","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4094536006197120","idStr":"4094536006197120"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"thans for info","listText":"thans for info","text":"thans for info","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9084394685","repostId":"2229167270","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2229167270","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1650787569,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2229167270?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-04-24 16:06","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Netflix’s Plunge Is a Wake-Up Call for Streaming","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2229167270","media":"Barrons","summary":"Netflix stock’s epic post-earnings collapse last week reverberated through the ranks of streaming st","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Netflix stock’s epic post-earnings collapse last week reverberated through the ranks of streaming stocks, dragging down shares of competitors left and right.</p><p>The streaming pioneer finished the week down 37%. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WBD\">Warner Bros</a>, Discovery tumbled 17%, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PARA\">Paramount Global </a> dropped 15%, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DIS\">Walt Disney </a> fell 9%, Lions Gate Entertainment (LGF.A) lost 8%, and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMCX\">AMC Networks </a> shed 7%. NBCUniversal owner Comcast (CMCSA) slipped less than 5%, buoyed by cable-segment results at <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/T\">AT&amp;T </a> and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VZ\">Verizon Communications </a>.</p><p>Wall Street continues to wake up to the thesis presented in a recent <i>Barron’s</i> cover story: Streaming is a hit with consumers, and undoubtedly the future of how people will consume movies and TV series, but the business model just doesn’t work yet—and for some companies, maybe never will.</p><p>A survey of 3,100 U.S. adults by Morgan Stanley analyst Benjamin Swinburne and his team found that the average household subscribes to 2.8 paid streaming services today, up from 2.5 a year ago and 1.8 in 2018. Consumers want to stream, and it’s not a winner-takes-all game. But there are many more contestants than places on the podium.</p><p>The streaming industry remains in a land-grab phase, with companies throwing tens of billions of dollars into original series and movies, marketing, and promotions. Following the <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NFLX\">Netflix</a> model, legacy media firms will accept several years of unprofitable growth for their services, on their way to the Holy Grail of high-margin, recurring-revenue subscriptions with global scale. Big Tech giants <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple </a> and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon.com </a> view their streaming services as customer-retention add-ons to their more-profitable businesses—not as profit makers.</p><p>The hard truth is that it’s difficult to make money in streaming when your competitors explicitly choose not to, and investors want to see profits. With interest rates on the rise and valuations of long-duration assets under pressure, Wall Street is less willing to underwrite cash-burning initiatives that might only begin to pay off several years down the road.</p><p>Some of Netflix’s issues are company-specific. The stock’s valuation on a variety of metrics towered above streaming rivals, giving shares more room to fall. Netflix already has 222 million subscribers and a multiyear head start. And management may have waited too late to begin working on an advertising-supported tier of the service. But competition will be felt at Disney+, HBO Max, Peacock, and Paramount+, too.</p><p>So what should investors do? They have options: Focus on the surest streaming winners (Disney, WBD, and Netflix), the companies with other revenue and profit levers to pull (Disney and Comcast), or the cheapest stock valuations (Paramount and WBD). Or perhaps avoid streaming stocks altogether until the dust settles and the path to sustainable profits emerges—if that ever happens.</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Netflix’s Plunge Is a Wake-Up Call for Streaming</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNetflix’s Plunge Is a Wake-Up Call for Streaming\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-04-24 16:06 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.barrons.com/articles/netflix-stock-nflx-streaming-51650673508?mod=RTA><strong>Barrons</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Netflix stock’s epic post-earnings collapse last week reverberated through the ranks of streaming stocks, dragging down shares of competitors left and right.The streaming pioneer finished the week ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/netflix-stock-nflx-streaming-51650673508?mod=RTA\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BK4532":"文艺复兴科技持仓","PARAA":"Paramount Global","NFLX":"奈飞","T":"At&T","BK4527":"明星科技股","CMCSA":"康卡斯特","BK4566":"资本集团","DIS":"迪士尼","VZ":"Verizon Comms","BK4551":"寇图资本持仓","PARA":"Paramount Global","AMCX":"AMC网络公司","WBD":"WARNER BROS DISCOVERY INC","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","BK4581":"高盛持仓"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/netflix-stock-nflx-streaming-51650673508?mod=RTA","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2229167270","content_text":"Netflix stock’s epic post-earnings collapse last week reverberated through the ranks of streaming stocks, dragging down shares of competitors left and right.The streaming pioneer finished the week down 37%. Warner Bros, Discovery tumbled 17%, Paramount Global  dropped 15%, Walt Disney  fell 9%, Lions Gate Entertainment (LGF.A) lost 8%, and AMC Networks  shed 7%. NBCUniversal owner Comcast (CMCSA) slipped less than 5%, buoyed by cable-segment results at AT&T  and Verizon Communications .Wall Street continues to wake up to the thesis presented in a recent Barron’s cover story: Streaming is a hit with consumers, and undoubtedly the future of how people will consume movies and TV series, but the business model just doesn’t work yet—and for some companies, maybe never will.A survey of 3,100 U.S. adults by Morgan Stanley analyst Benjamin Swinburne and his team found that the average household subscribes to 2.8 paid streaming services today, up from 2.5 a year ago and 1.8 in 2018. Consumers want to stream, and it’s not a winner-takes-all game. But there are many more contestants than places on the podium.The streaming industry remains in a land-grab phase, with companies throwing tens of billions of dollars into original series and movies, marketing, and promotions. Following the Netflix model, legacy media firms will accept several years of unprofitable growth for their services, on their way to the Holy Grail of high-margin, recurring-revenue subscriptions with global scale. Big Tech giants Apple  and Amazon.com  view their streaming services as customer-retention add-ons to their more-profitable businesses—not as profit makers.The hard truth is that it’s difficult to make money in streaming when your competitors explicitly choose not to, and investors want to see profits. With interest rates on the rise and valuations of long-duration assets under pressure, Wall Street is less willing to underwrite cash-burning initiatives that might only begin to pay off several years down the road.Some of Netflix’s issues are company-specific. The stock’s valuation on a variety of metrics towered above streaming rivals, giving shares more room to fall. Netflix already has 222 million subscribers and a multiyear head start. And management may have waited too late to begin working on an advertising-supported tier of the service. But competition will be felt at Disney+, HBO Max, Peacock, and Paramount+, too.So what should investors do? They have options: Focus on the surest streaming winners (Disney, WBD, and Netflix), the companies with other revenue and profit levers to pull (Disney and Comcast), or the cheapest stock valuations (Paramount and WBD). Or perhaps avoid streaming stocks altogether until the dust settles and the path to sustainable profits emerges—if that ever happens.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NFLX":1,"WBD":0.9,"AMCX":0.9,"DIS":0.9,"VZ":0.9,"T":0.9,"PARAA":0.9,"CMCSA":0.9,"PARA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":784,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9030119051,"gmtCreate":1645661075995,"gmtModify":1676534050031,"author":{"id":"4094536006197120","authorId":"4094536006197120","name":"不死鸟.","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/58aa91ee114515837a7c24d97a1ac173","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4094536006197120","idStr":"4094536006197120"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"ok","listText":"ok","text":"ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9030119051","repostId":"1153372780","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":706,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9094618762,"gmtCreate":1645139339196,"gmtModify":1676534000790,"author":{"id":"4094536006197120","authorId":"4094536006197120","name":"不死鸟.","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/58aa91ee114515837a7c24d97a1ac173","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4094536006197120","idStr":"4094536006197120"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"ok","listText":"ok","text":"ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9094618762","repostId":"2212790643","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2212790643","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1645134000,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2212790643?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-02-18 05:40","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Foreign media headlines | Geopolitical risks trigger changes! Rate hike strength is expected to decline","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2212790643","media":"新浪财经","summary":"全球财经媒体昨夜今晨共同关注的头条新闻主要有：1、地缘风险引发市场变天 交易员下调对美联储3月升息50基点押注2、近月合约大幅溢价 油价曲线显示市场紧俏程度史上罕见3、美联储布拉德：通胀“可能会失控”","content":"<p><html><head></head><body><b>The headlines that the global financial media paid attention to last night and this morning mainly include:</b></p><p><b>1. Geopolitical risks trigger market changes, traders cut their bets on the Fed's 50 basis point interest rate hike in March</b><b>2. The oil price curve shows that the market is tight at a large premium in recent months, which is rare in history</b><b>3. Fed Bullard: Inflation \"may get out of control\" so action is needed now</b><b>4、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>Strategist: Labor Market Becomes Keyword in U.S. Company Earnings Calls</b><b>5. U.S. \"Consumer Reports\" releases car brand ratings<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>Sliding to 23rd</b><b>6. \"Sister Wood\": Innovative stocks are seriously undervalued and recent fund losses are temporary</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66347a4fb7af0ba668115eab488be5e2\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"422\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Geopolitical risks trigger market changes, traders cut bets on the Fed's 50 basis point interest rate hike in March</b></p><p>Market traders now expect a more likely rate hike of 25 basis points at the Fed's March meeting than rate hike of 50 basis points.</p><p>While higher-than-expected inflation and the Fed's decidedly hawkish stance sparked speculation of a deeper rate hike earlier this month, a recent spate of geopolitical news has fueled risk aversion, and a 25 basis point rate hike margin appears to become more likely. Traders' bets on 25 basis points were also fueled by the fact that minutes from the Federal Reserve meeting released Wednesday didn't reveal any important clues about a sharp rate hike.</p><p>The tightening situation between Russia and Ukraine spurred buying of U.S. Treasury Bond on Thursday, and short-term yields fell. Overnight index swaps (OIS), which are tied to the timing of the Fed's interest rate meeting in March, expect the fed funds target rate to be about 35 basis points higher than the current real effective rate of 0.08%. Given that the Fed usually raises interest rates by a multiple of 25 basis points, the OIS price shows that traders believe that it will definitely raise at least 25 basis points in March, but the probability of 50 basis points is only about 40%.</p><p>This is a noticeable change compared to a few days ago. At the opening of trading on Wednesday, market prices reflected a possible interest rate hike of about 40 basis points in March, indicating that a 50 basis point rate hike is relatively more likely.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c137c648d0511487e08ea44c2d2eecff\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"365\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>The front-month contract is at a sharp premium, and the oil price curve shows that the market is tight at a rare level in history</b></p><p>During this round of sharp volatility in benchmark oil prices, the crude oil futures curve showed that the market was in one of its strongest periods ever.</p><p>Brent price moved significantly above $90 this week, but there was more volatility in the market structure.</p><p>The front-month contract is at a significant premium to the forward contract, suggesting that traders are now scrambling to buy oil. Some futures spreads have reached their highest levels since relevant data became available in 2007.</p><p>This is most clearly reflected in the world's most important physical crude oil price: spot Brent crude oil spot prices hit $100 a barrel on Wednesday for the first time since 2014. The North Sea spot market has boomed in recent weeks, with some physical spreads hitting record highs as demand from European refineries surged.</p><p>\"The strength of spot Brent clearly indicates that refiners are purchasing short-term supplies,\" Energy Aspects analysts, including Amrita Sen, wrote in a note to clients this week. \"The only way to balance this market in the medium term is still to slow down the growth of demand with high oil prices.\"</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0c325e4a226b032ea404326b7608b784\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"374\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Fed's Bullard: Inflation'could get out of control 'so action is needed now</b></p><p>St. Louis Fed President James Bullard warned on Thursday that inflation could become a more serious problem if the Fed does not take interest rate action.</p><p>Bullard said, \"Our generation is at greater risk now than ever before, and it may get out of control. One scenario is that we are facing an unexpected new surprise, and we may have higher inflation. This is the kind of situation we want to make sure it doesn't happen.\"</p><p>Bullard has been in the market's radar recently for calling for hawkish action from the Federal Reserve. He advocated raising interest rates by a percentage point by July to combat the worst inflation in 40 years.</p><p>In his remarks on Thursday, Bullard reiterated his claim that the Fed should \"front\" rate hike to curb inflation.</p><p>\"Overall, I think, the idea that inflation will dissipate at some point in the future is overemphasized and overfocused,\" Bullard said. \"We run the risk that inflation won't dissipate, and 2022 will be the second year in a row of pretty high levels of inflation. So that's why in this case, the Fed should act faster and more aggressively than it would otherwise.\"</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4e67869333513b30423c5183cff7e5fa\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"309\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Goldman Sachs Strategist: Labor Market Becomes Keyword in U.S. Company Earnings Calls</b></p><p>Strategists at Goldman Sachs said that a historically rare tight labor market, low unemployment rate and rising wage inflation are squeezing profit margins and leaving U.S. companies struggling to cope.</p><p>Strategists led by David J. Kostin said that analysis of the fourth-quarter earnings calls of S&P 500 companies shows that many companies are raising salaries while labor force participation rates remain below pre-pandemic levels. To attract workers, which puts pressure on corporate profits. Despite salary growth at the fastest rate in decades, staffing problems persist and are one of the reasons for supply chain disruptions.</p><p>\"Supply chain disruptions continue to impact margins, and it's unclear when these issues will be resolved,\" Kostin wrote in a note. \"The most recent quarterly earnings call showed more uncertainty about how long these disruptions will last and how close we are to normalization.\"</p><p>Still, Kostin said companies that acted at the beginning of supply chain problems were able to protect profit margins, and said analysts underestimated the strength of corporate profits at the start of earnings season. Goldman also recommends looking at high-quality companies with strong balance sheets, stable margins, and the ability to protect profits during times of input cost inflation.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9af5544d17617b91904ef219130a0532\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"309\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>US \"Consumer Reports\" releases car brand rating, Tesla slips to 23rd place</b></p><p>The US \"Consumer Reports\" released automobile brand ratings, and Tesla's rating fell 7 places to 23rd, which is Tesla's worst performance in seven years; The Tesla Model 3 is no longer the'best choice 'in the 2022 EV market, but is<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/F\">Ford Motor</a>Mustang Mach-E Replace.</p><p>Jack Fisher, senior director of Consumer Reports, said the Model 3 doesn't match the Ford Mach-E in some ways, especially in assisted driving.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d1c0644f19cec3708bd8692fa0398ded\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"288\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>\"Sister Wood\": Innovative stocks are seriously undervalued and recent fund losses are temporary</b></p><p>Ark Invest CEO Cathie Wood said Thursday that tech companies in her innovation-focused portfolio are significantly undervalued and believes the recent sell-off in her funds is temporary.</p><p>\"Our funds have seen a big decline,\" Wood said Thursday. \"We do believe that innovative stocks are in cheap territory … our tech stocks are significantly undervalued relative to their potential … Give us five years and we are running a deep value portfolio.\"</p><p>Wood's flagship fund<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ARKK\">ARK Innovation ETF</a>Caught in the center of a wave of tech plunging stocks in 2022, down 26% year to date. Due to expectations of rising interest rates, her holdings<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZM\">Zoom</a>Awkwardness stocks including Teladoc Health and Roku have fallen 70% this year.</p><p>\"Our biggest concern is that our investors are turning what we think is a temporary loss into a permanent loss,\" Wood said.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"XLCJ","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Foreign media headlines | Geopolitical risks trigger changes! 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Rate hike strength is expected to decline\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">新浪财经</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-02-18 05:40</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><b>The headlines that the global financial media paid attention to last night and this morning mainly include:</b></p><p><b>1. Geopolitical risks trigger market changes, traders cut their bets on the Fed's 50 basis point interest rate hike in March</b><b>2. The oil price curve shows that the market is tight at a large premium in recent months, which is rare in history</b><b>3. Fed Bullard: Inflation \"may get out of control\" so action is needed now</b><b>4、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>Strategist: Labor Market Becomes Keyword in U.S. Company Earnings Calls</b><b>5. U.S. \"Consumer Reports\" releases car brand ratings<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>Sliding to 23rd</b><b>6. \"Sister Wood\": Innovative stocks are seriously undervalued and recent fund losses are temporary</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66347a4fb7af0ba668115eab488be5e2\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"422\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Geopolitical risks trigger market changes, traders cut bets on the Fed's 50 basis point interest rate hike in March</b></p><p>Market traders now expect a more likely rate hike of 25 basis points at the Fed's March meeting than rate hike of 50 basis points.</p><p>While higher-than-expected inflation and the Fed's decidedly hawkish stance sparked speculation of a deeper rate hike earlier this month, a recent spate of geopolitical news has fueled risk aversion, and a 25 basis point rate hike margin appears to become more likely. Traders' bets on 25 basis points were also fueled by the fact that minutes from the Federal Reserve meeting released Wednesday didn't reveal any important clues about a sharp rate hike.</p><p>The tightening situation between Russia and Ukraine spurred buying of U.S. Treasury Bond on Thursday, and short-term yields fell. Overnight index swaps (OIS), which are tied to the timing of the Fed's interest rate meeting in March, expect the fed funds target rate to be about 35 basis points higher than the current real effective rate of 0.08%. Given that the Fed usually raises interest rates by a multiple of 25 basis points, the OIS price shows that traders believe that it will definitely raise at least 25 basis points in March, but the probability of 50 basis points is only about 40%.</p><p>This is a noticeable change compared to a few days ago. At the opening of trading on Wednesday, market prices reflected a possible interest rate hike of about 40 basis points in March, indicating that a 50 basis point rate hike is relatively more likely.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c137c648d0511487e08ea44c2d2eecff\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"365\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>The front-month contract is at a sharp premium, and the oil price curve shows that the market is tight at a rare level in history</b></p><p>During this round of sharp volatility in benchmark oil prices, the crude oil futures curve showed that the market was in one of its strongest periods ever.</p><p>Brent price moved significantly above $90 this week, but there was more volatility in the market structure.</p><p>The front-month contract is at a significant premium to the forward contract, suggesting that traders are now scrambling to buy oil. Some futures spreads have reached their highest levels since relevant data became available in 2007.</p><p>This is most clearly reflected in the world's most important physical crude oil price: spot Brent crude oil spot prices hit $100 a barrel on Wednesday for the first time since 2014. The North Sea spot market has boomed in recent weeks, with some physical spreads hitting record highs as demand from European refineries surged.</p><p>\"The strength of spot Brent clearly indicates that refiners are purchasing short-term supplies,\" Energy Aspects analysts, including Amrita Sen, wrote in a note to clients this week. \"The only way to balance this market in the medium term is still to slow down the growth of demand with high oil prices.\"</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0c325e4a226b032ea404326b7608b784\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"374\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Fed's Bullard: Inflation'could get out of control 'so action is needed now</b></p><p>St. Louis Fed President James Bullard warned on Thursday that inflation could become a more serious problem if the Fed does not take interest rate action.</p><p>Bullard said, \"Our generation is at greater risk now than ever before, and it may get out of control. One scenario is that we are facing an unexpected new surprise, and we may have higher inflation. This is the kind of situation we want to make sure it doesn't happen.\"</p><p>Bullard has been in the market's radar recently for calling for hawkish action from the Federal Reserve. He advocated raising interest rates by a percentage point by July to combat the worst inflation in 40 years.</p><p>In his remarks on Thursday, Bullard reiterated his claim that the Fed should \"front\" rate hike to curb inflation.</p><p>\"Overall, I think, the idea that inflation will dissipate at some point in the future is overemphasized and overfocused,\" Bullard said. \"We run the risk that inflation won't dissipate, and 2022 will be the second year in a row of pretty high levels of inflation. So that's why in this case, the Fed should act faster and more aggressively than it would otherwise.\"</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4e67869333513b30423c5183cff7e5fa\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"309\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Goldman Sachs Strategist: Labor Market Becomes Keyword in U.S. Company Earnings Calls</b></p><p>Strategists at Goldman Sachs said that a historically rare tight labor market, low unemployment rate and rising wage inflation are squeezing profit margins and leaving U.S. companies struggling to cope.</p><p>Strategists led by David J. Kostin said that analysis of the fourth-quarter earnings calls of S&P 500 companies shows that many companies are raising salaries while labor force participation rates remain below pre-pandemic levels. To attract workers, which puts pressure on corporate profits. Despite salary growth at the fastest rate in decades, staffing problems persist and are one of the reasons for supply chain disruptions.</p><p>\"Supply chain disruptions continue to impact margins, and it's unclear when these issues will be resolved,\" Kostin wrote in a note. \"The most recent quarterly earnings call showed more uncertainty about how long these disruptions will last and how close we are to normalization.\"</p><p>Still, Kostin said companies that acted at the beginning of supply chain problems were able to protect profit margins, and said analysts underestimated the strength of corporate profits at the start of earnings season. Goldman also recommends looking at high-quality companies with strong balance sheets, stable margins, and the ability to protect profits during times of input cost inflation.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9af5544d17617b91904ef219130a0532\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"309\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>US \"Consumer Reports\" releases car brand rating, Tesla slips to 23rd place</b></p><p>The US \"Consumer Reports\" released automobile brand ratings, and Tesla's rating fell 7 places to 23rd, which is Tesla's worst performance in seven years; The Tesla Model 3 is no longer the'best choice 'in the 2022 EV market, but is<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/F\">Ford Motor</a>Mustang Mach-E Replace.</p><p>Jack Fisher, senior director of Consumer Reports, said the Model 3 doesn't match the Ford Mach-E in some ways, especially in assisted driving.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d1c0644f19cec3708bd8692fa0398ded\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"288\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>\"Sister Wood\": Innovative stocks are seriously undervalued and recent fund losses are temporary</b></p><p>Ark Invest CEO Cathie Wood said Thursday that tech companies in her innovation-focused portfolio are significantly undervalued and believes the recent sell-off in her funds is temporary.</p><p>\"Our funds have seen a big decline,\" Wood said Thursday. \"We do believe that innovative stocks are in cheap territory … our tech stocks are significantly undervalued relative to their potential … Give us five years and we are running a deep value portfolio.\"</p><p>Wood's flagship fund<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ARKK\">ARK Innovation ETF</a>Caught in the center of a wave of tech plunging stocks in 2022, down 26% year to date. Due to expectations of rising interest rates, her holdings<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZM\">Zoom</a>Awkwardness stocks including Teladoc Health and Roku have fallen 70% this year.</p><p>\"Our biggest concern is that our investors are turning what we think is a temporary loss into a permanent loss,\" Wood said.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2022-02-18/doc-ikyamrna1378664.shtml\">新浪财经</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66347a4fb7af0ba668115eab488be5e2","relate_stocks":{"BK4550":"红杉资本持仓",".DJI":"道琼斯","BK4504":"桥水持仓",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","SPY":"标普500ETF","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓"},"source_url":"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2022-02-18/doc-ikyamrna1378664.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2212790643","content_text":"全球财经媒体昨夜今晨共同关注的头条新闻主要有：1、地缘风险引发市场变天 交易员下调对美联储3月升息50基点押注2、近月合约大幅溢价 油价曲线显示市场紧俏程度史上罕见3、美联储布拉德：通胀“可能会失控” 因此现在需要采取行动4、高盛策略师：劳动力市场成为美国公司财报电话会议的关键词5、美国《消费者报告》发布汽车品牌评级 特斯拉下滑至第23位6、“木头姐”：创新型股票被严重低估 近期基金亏损是暂时的地缘风险引发市场变天 交易员下调对美联储3月升息50基点押注市场交易员目前预计，美联储在3月会议上加息25个基点的可能性比加息50个基点更大。虽然通胀率高于预期且美联储明显的鹰派姿态本月早些时候引发了对更大幅加息的猜测，但最近一系列地缘政治消息推动避险情绪升温，25个基点的加息幅度似乎变得更有可能。周三发布的美联储会议纪要未透露任何关于大幅加息的重要线索，这也助长了交易员对25基点的押注。俄乌局势趋紧刺激了周四对美国国债的买盘，短期收益率下滑。与3月份美联储利率会议时间挂钩的隔夜指数掉期（OIS）预计联邦基金目标利率将比当前0.08%的实际有效利率高出约35基点。鉴于美联储升息幅度通常是25基点的倍数，所以OIS价格说明交易员认为3月肯定至少加25基点，但50基点的可能性只有40%左右。与几天前相比，这是一个明显的变化。周三开盘时，市场价格反映3月可能升息40基点左右，表明加息50个基点的可能性相对更大。近月合约大幅溢价 油价曲线显示市场紧俏程度史上罕见本轮基准油价大幅波动期间，原油期货曲线显示市场处于有史以来最强劲的时期之一。本周布伦特价格大幅波动至90美元以上，但市场结构中的波动更大。近月合约较远期合约大幅溢价，显示交易员现在正在争相购油。一些期货价差已达到2007年有相关数据以来的最高水准。这在全球最重要的实物原油价格中得到最明确的反映：即期布伦特原油现货价格周三触及每桶100美元，为2014年以来首次。最近几周，北海现货市场蓬勃发展，随着欧洲炼油厂的需求激增，一些实物价差创下历史新高。“即期布伦特的强势显然表明炼油商正在采购短期供应，”包括Amrita Sen在内的Energy Aspects分析师在本周给客户的一份报告中写道。“在中期内平衡这个市场的唯一方法仍然是以高油价来减缓需求的增长。”美联储布拉德：通胀“可能会失控” 因此现在需要采取行动美国圣路易斯联储主席詹姆斯-布拉德（James Bullard）周四警告称，如果美联储不采取利率行动，通胀可能会成为一个更严重的问题。布拉德称，“我们这一代人现在面临的风险比以往都更大，这可能会失控。一种情况是，我们面临着一个无法预料的新的意外，我们可能还会有更高的通胀。这是我们希望确保不会发生的那种情况。”布拉德最近因呼吁美联储采取鹰派行动而备受市场关注。他主张在7月之前将利率提高一个百分点，以应对40年来最严重的通胀。在周四的讲话中，布拉德重申了他的主张，即美联储应该“前置”加息，以遏制通胀。“总体而言，我认为，关于通胀将在未来某个时候消散的想法被过分强调和关注了，”布拉德说。“我们面临通胀不会消散的风险，2022年将是连续第二年出现相当高的通胀水平。所以这就是为什么在这种情况下，美联储应该比在其他情况下更快、更积极地采取行动。”高盛策略师：劳动力市场成为美国公司财报电话会议的关键词高盛集团的策略师说，历史罕见的劳动力市场吃紧、低失业率以及不断上升的工资通胀正在挤压利润率，让美国企业疲于应付。David J． Kostin牵头的策略师表示，通过对标普500指数成份股公司第四季度财报电话会议的分析可以看出，在劳动力参与率仍然低于疫情前水平的情况下，许多公司正在提高薪酬以吸引工人，这对企业利润构成压力。尽管薪资增速达到数十年来最快，但人手问题仍然存在，也是供应链中断的原因之一。“供应链中断继续影响利润率，目前尚不清楚这些问题何时得到解决，”Kostin在一份报告中写道。“最近一个季度的财报电话会议显示，这些中断将持续多久、我们距离正常化还有多远，存在更多不确定性。”尽管如此，Kostin表示，那些在供应链问题出现之初就采取行动的公司能够保护利润率，并说分析师们在财报季开始时低估了企业利润的强劲程度。高盛还建议关注那些资产负债表强劲、利润率稳定、能够在投入成本通胀时期保护利润的优质公司。美国《消费者报告》发布汽车品牌评级 特斯拉下滑至第23位美国《消费者报告》发布汽车品牌评级，特斯拉评级下滑7位，排名23，这是特斯拉七年来最差的表现；特斯拉Model 3不再是2022年电动汽车市场“最佳选择”，而是被福特汽车Mustang Mach-E取代。《消费者报告》高级主管杰克费舍尔表示，Model 3在某些方面无法与福特Mach-E 相媲美，尤其是辅助驾驶方面。“木头姐”：创新型股票被严重低估 近期基金亏损是暂时的Ark Invest首席执行官Cathie Wood周四表示，其专注于创新的投资组合中的科技公司被严重低估，并认为旗下基金最近的抛售是暂时的。“我们的基金出现了大幅下滑，”Wood周四表示。 “我们确实相信创新型股票处于廉价区域……我们的科技股相对于其潜力被大幅低估了……给我们五年时间，我们正在运行一个深度价值投资组合。”Wood的旗舰基金ARK Innovation ETF在2022年陷入了科技股暴跌浪潮的中心，今年迄今已下跌26%。由于对利率上升的预期，她持有的Zoom、Teladoc Health和Roku等在内的重仓股今年已经下跌了70%。“我们最大的担忧是，我们的投资者将我们认为的暂时损失变成了永久性损失，”Wood说。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":1,".IXIC":1,"SPY":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":651,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9098519850,"gmtCreate":1644187067230,"gmtModify":1676533896290,"author":{"id":"4094536006197120","authorId":"4094536006197120","name":"不死鸟.","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/58aa91ee114515837a7c24d97a1ac173","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4094536006197120","idStr":"4094536006197120"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"ok","listText":"ok","text":"ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9098519850","repostId":"2209332881","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2209332881","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1644139787,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2209332881?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-02-06 17:29","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"CITIC Securities: Joy and Worry of Overseas Markets during the Spring Festival Holiday","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2209332881","media":"CS宏观研究","summary":"核心观点春节假期期间全球风险资产较节前略有回暖，但流动性指标的“喜忧参半”预示着资产价格波动依然较大。预计实际美债利率未来震荡上行至0附近，其对高估值板块依然是主要风险之一。本轮疫情外部冲击下的全球经","content":"<p><html><head></head><body><b>CORE POINT</b></p><p>During the Spring Festival holiday, global risk assets picked up slightly compared with before the holiday, but the \"mixed\" liquidity indicators indicated that asset prices still fluctuated greatly. It is expected that the actual US Treasury yields will fluctuate to around 0 in the future, and it is still one of the main risks for high-valuation sectors. The global economic cycle under the external impact of this round of epidemic is not comparable to previous cycles, and the swing of the Fed's tightening expectations in the future may be relatively limited. Therefore, in terms of overall allocation, we still recommend focusing on defense and waiting for a number of CPI data in March and the details of monetary policies of European and American central banks to be implemented.</p><p><b>SUMMARY</b></p><p>During the Spring Festival holiday, global risk assets picked up slightly compared with before the holiday. During the Spring Festival, the main line of market investment revolves around energy supply, corporate financial reports and monetary tightening expectations of major central banks. Among them, 1) Affected by severe cold weather in the United States and supply disruptions in oil-producing countries, international oil prices have increased by as much as 5-6% in the past week, much higher than other commodities. However, as the European energy crisis gradually shows signs of easing, European natural gas has fallen by more than 10% in the past week. We maintain<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600030\">CITIC Securities</a>-Top Ten Outlooks for Overseas Markets in 2022 \"(2022-1-6) The view that oil prices rose first (exceeding US $90/barrel) and then fell throughout the year. 2) In terms of stock markets, Asian stock indexes were among the top gainers, with the three major U.S. stock indexes rebounding by more than 1%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon</a>The financial reports of other companies turned the tide and drove the Nasdaq to rebound by more than 2%. However, due to the unsynchronized economic and profit cycles, it is difficult for the profit factors of US stock companies to have a forward-looking impact on other markets. 3) The Fed's tightening expectations that caused a sharp decline in global stock markets before the holiday did not ease significantly. Instead, they were further strengthened under the strong U.S. non-farm payrolls data and hawkish tightening expectations of the European and British banks. The 10-year US Treasury yields exceeded 1.9%.</p><p>Economic data: The U.S. job market improved significantly but remained tight, and inflation in the euro zone unexpectedly rose. In the United States, on the one hand, the number of new non-farm employment in January 2022 exceeded expectations, and the labor force participation rate increased significantly, indicating that the U.S. job market is recovering steadily and has not been significantly affected by the Omicron mutant strain. On the other hand, the number of job vacancies is still high, and the hourly wage growth rate exceeds expectations, indicating that the U.S. job market continues to be in short supply, and the risk of wage-price spiral continues to rise. In Europe, the euro zone reconciled CPI increased by 5.1% year-on-year in January, a record high and much higher than market expectations, while the year-on-year growth rate of core reconciled CPI dropped from the previous month. Inflation in the euro zone is mainly caused by high energy prices. At present, the probability of wage-price spiral risk is relatively low. It is expected that inflation in the euro zone may fall in the second half of this year.</p><p>Central Bank and monetary policy: The central banks of the United Kingdom and the European Union are releasing hawks together, and global monetary policy is tightening. As for the Bank of England, due to rising inflation, the Bank of England passed rate hike's 25bps decision by 5 votes to 4 at the February interest rate meeting. After rate hike's 15bps in December last year, it rate hike again and raised its policy interest rate to 0.5%. At this meeting, the Bank of England also announced the end of maturity reinvestment of British government bonds. At the same time, it should start selling corporate bonds and officially start a shrinking balance sheet. The hawkish degree exceeded market expectations. As for the European Central Bank, the attitude of the European Central Bank has changed dramatically as the January inflation data released the day before hit a record high. European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde's speech showed a hawkish style and no longer insisted on the previously emphasized assertion that \"rate hike is unlikely in 2022\", which may herald the official beginning of the European Central Bank's monetary policy to turn.</p><p>Looking ahead, the \"mixed\" liquidity indicators indicate that asset prices will still fluctuate greatly. The liquidity indicator (US Treasury yields + the US Dollar Index) during the Spring Festival holiday revealed the characteristics of \"mixed blessings and sorrows\". The \"happiness\" that global liquidity may improve marginally comes from: 1) The Federal Reserve has begun to have members speak to appease the market's anxiety about tightening. 2) Weakening the US Dollar Index will help reduce the external debt pressure of emerging countries, slow down unnecessary capital outflows, and free up more space and time for monetary operations for their domestic monetary policies. However, the long-term hidden \"worry\" of the ebb of global liquidity still exists: although asset prices have rebounded recently, the monetary tightening expectations of major developed central banks have not eased, but have been further strengthened by high energy prices and the accelerated tightening of the European Central Bank. It is expected that the actual US Treasury yields will fluctuate to around 0 in the future, and it is still one of the main risks for high-valuation sectors. The global economic cycle under the external impact of this round of epidemic is not comparable to previous cycles, and the swing of the Fed's tightening expectations in the future may be relatively limited. Therefore, in terms of overall allocation, we still recommend focusing on defense and waiting for a number of CPI data in March and the details of monetary policies of European and American central banks to be implemented.</p><p><b>text</b></p><p>Global risk assets picked up slightly during the Spring Festival holiday compared with before the holiday</p><p>During the Spring Festival holiday, global risk assets picked up slightly compared with before the holiday. The main line of market investment revolved around energy supply, corporate financial reports and monetary tightening expectations of major central banks. Wherein,</p><p>Affected by the severe cold weather in the United States and supply disruptions in oil-producing countries, international oil prices have risen by as much as 5-6% in the past week, much higher than other bulk products. However, as the European energy crisis gradually shows signs of easing, European natural gas has fallen by more than 10% in the past week. We maintain<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06030\">CITIC Securities</a>-Top Ten Outlooks for Overseas Markets in 2022 \"(2022-1-6) The view that oil prices rose first (exceeding US $90/barrel) and then fell throughout the year.</p><p>In terms of stock markets, Asian stock indexes were among the top gainers, with the three major U.S. stock indexes rebounding by more than 1%. The financial reports of Amazon and other companies turned the tide and drove the Nasdaq to rebound by more than 2%. However, due to the unsynchronized economic and profit cycles, it is difficult for the profit factors of U.S. stock companies to have a forward-looking impact on other markets.</p><p>Fed tightening expectations, which caused global stock markets to fall sharply before the holiday, have not eased significantly. On the contrary, tightening expectations were further strengthened under the strong U.S. non-farm payrolls data and hawkish tightening expectations of European and British banks, with 10-year US Treasury yields exceeding 1.9%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e0be7e8c223261cd02dc52aa37ed6e44\" tg-width=\"814\" tg-height=\"766\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>U.S. employment improves significantly but remains tight, euro zone inflation unexpectedly rises</b></p><p>During the Spring Festival, the United States and Europe released important economic data. The employment data in the United States exceeded expectations and the inflation level in Europe unexpectedly rose.</p><p>In January 2022, the number of new non-farm employment in the United States exceeded expectations, and the labor force participation rate increased significantly, indicating that the U.S. job market is recovering steadily and has not been significantly affected by the Omicron mutant strain. The number of new non-farm payrolls in the United States in January was 467,000, much higher than market expectations (-400,000 to 250,000). At the same time, the number of new non-farm payrolls in November and December last year was raised to 647,000 and 510,000 respectively, with a cumulative increase of 709,000 in two months. Although the unemployment rate rebounded slightly to 4.0% from 3.9% in December last year, the labor force participation rate increased significantly by 0.3 percentage points to 62.2%, which was only 0.5 percentage points different from 62.7% in March 2020. From the breakdown data, the leisure and hotel industries contributed the largest increase. In some areas, the requirement of showing vaccination certificates to enter indoor places may have increased people's willingness to work in the leisure and hotel industry to a certain extent. Although the household survey sample in January 2021 has changed compared with December 2020, resulting in possible errors in the direct comparison of the two-month data, the overall unexpected performance of the employment data still shows that the U.S. job market has not been significantly affected by the Omicron mutant strain., still on the road of steady repair.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4818e24c9c03bd09f032cc1797532e31\" tg-width=\"1037\" tg-height=\"536\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/15361daafa55dc6bd6d4815bae611bb4\" tg-width=\"1036\" tg-height=\"535\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>The number of job vacancies is still high, and the hourly wage growth rate exceeds expectations, indicating that the U.S. job market continues to be in short supply, and the risk of wage-price spiral continues to rise. The number of job vacancies in the United States reached 10.925 million in December 2021, significantly higher than the expected 10.3 million. At the same time, the number of job vacancies in November was revised upward from 10.562 million to 10.775 million. Accompanied by the high number of job vacancies, wage levels continue to grow rapidly. In January 2022, the month-on-month and year-on-year growth rates of U.S. non-farm employment hourly wages exceeded expectations, and the year-on-year growth rate of 5.7% was the largest increase since May 2020. The high number of job vacancies and the high growth rate of hourly wages show that employers are trying to raise wages to attract labor, but it is still difficult to change the short supply situation in the U.S. job market. The rapid rise in wages and prices has further increased the risk of a wage-price spiral in the United States.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2f84c2e46564df549e0c064c89edd703\" tg-width=\"642\" tg-height=\"543\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7025404106bbecd1dbc3e5374c8530a8\" tg-width=\"645\" tg-height=\"538\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>In January, the euro zone reconciled CPI increased by 5.1% year-on-year, a record high, much higher than market expectations, while the year-on-year growth rate of the core reconciled CPI dropped from the previous month. In January, the year-on-year growth rate of HICP in the euro zone reached 5.1%, much higher than market expectations of 4.4%. After reaching 5.0% in December 2020, it continued to remain high. In terms of sub-items, energy is the main factor driving up HICP in the euro zone. In January, the price of energy rose by 28.6% year-on-year, while the price of unprocessed food rose by 5.16% year-on-year. After excluding energy and food factors, the core HICP growth rate of the euro zone in January was 2.3% year-on-year, which was lower than the previous month, but still exceeded market expectations.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d6fe9d9446fcfbb259344a332a30b468\" tg-width=\"651\" tg-height=\"550\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e3460a8cc1a7514e31d1303a90ffbb2\" tg-width=\"653\" tg-height=\"541\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Inflation in the euro zone is mainly caused by high energy prices, and the probability of wage-price spiral risk is relatively low at present. The rapid growth of energy prices has led to higher-than-expected inflation growth in the euro zone, and the growth of energy prices may be related to the continued upward trend of crude oil prices. At the same time, under the influence of wider rising prices of goods and services, high inflation in the euro zone may remain high in the first half of the year. However, with the subsequent decline in energy prices, it is expected that inflation in the euro zone may fall in the second half of this year and may fall by the end of the year. Return to levels around 1.8%. As the wage growth rate in the euro zone is relatively flat, unlike the United States and Britain, the probability of wage-price spiral risk in Europe is low.</p><p><b>The UK and European central banks release hawks together, and global monetary policy is moving towards tightening</b></p><p>During the Spring Festival, both the Bank of England and the European Central Bank sent hawkish signals. Under the pressure of high inflation, global monetary policy is tightening.</p><p>At the interest rate meeting in February, the Bank of England's rate hike was 25pbs and started a shrinking balance sheet at the same time. The hawkish level exceeded market expectations. As inflation continues to rise, the Bank of England passed rate hike's 25bps decision by 5 votes to 4 at its February interest rate meeting. After rate hike's 15bps in December last year, it rate hike again and raised its policy interest rate to 0.5%. This is the first time since 2004 that the Bank of England has experienced a rate hike at two consecutive interest rate meetings. Although the rate hike is in line with market expectations, the Bank of England also announced at this meeting that it will end the maturity reinvestment of British government bonds. At the same time, it should start the sale of corporate bonds and officially start the shrinking balance sheet. The hawkish degree exceeds market expectations, reflecting the determination of the Bank of England to control inflation. At this interest rate meeting, some officials proposed a rate hike of 50bps, so the Bank of England may continue to rate hike in the future.</p><p>The European Central Bank also released hawkish signals at its interest rate meeting in February, and its sudden turn completely exceeded market expectations. As January inflation data released the day before hit a record high and far exceeded market expectations, the European Central Bank's attitude changed dramatically. Although the statement of the meeting was generally in line with expectations, the speech of European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde after the meeting showed a hawkish style. First of all, Lagarde said that the European Central Bank Governing Committee was unanimously worried that inflation would be high longer than expected; Secondly, she no longer insists on the assertion that \"rate hike is unlikely in 2022\" that she has been emphasizing before, saying that \"the situation has indeed changed.\" The sudden shift in his argument is similar to Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's first statement that \"it's time to give up the word'temporary '\", or it may indicate that the European Central Bank's monetary policy will officially begin to turn. However, even if the European Central Bank starts its rate hike, its first rate hike will take place after it stops expanding its balance sheet. At the same time, further attention needs to be paid to the subsequent changes in inflation data in the euro zone.</p><p><b>Liquidity indicators \"mixed\" indicate that asset price fluctuations are still large</b></p><p>During the Spring Festival holiday, liquidity indicators (US Treasury yields + the US Dollar Index) revealed the characteristics of \"mixed blessings and sorrows\". The \"happiness\" that global liquidity may improve marginally comes from:</p><p>1) The Federal Reserve began to have members speaking to appease the market's anxiety about tightening. On February 1st, Atlanta Fed President Bostic changed his mind and said that the Fed's rate hike would not be very aggressive, and he tended to rate hike three times during the year; Philadelphia Fed President Harker expressed disapproval of a 50bp rate hike; San Francisco Fed President Daly said that monetary policy should be changed step by step, and the current Fed's monetary policy actions do not lag behind the curve.</p><p>2) the US Dollar Index has weakened in stages, freeing up more space and time for the monetary policies of emerging market countries. Although the US Dollar Index mainly has a heavy exchange rate weight against the euro and the British pound, the US Dollar Index's weakness will indirectly boost commodity prices in emerging markets, reduce the external debt pressure of emerging countries, slow down unnecessary capital outflows, and free up more space and time for their domestic monetary policies.</p><p>However, the long-term hidden \"worry\" of the ebb of global liquidity still exists: although asset prices have rebounded recently, the monetary tightening expectations of major developed central banks have not eased, but have been further strengthened by high energy prices and the accelerated tightening of the European Central Bank. It is expected that the actual US Treasury yields will fluctuate up to around 0 in the future, and it is still one of the main risks for high-valuation sectors.</p><p>The global economic cycle under the external impact of this round of epidemic is not comparable to previous cycles. The current economic cycle is in the transition from the mid-cycle to the post-cycle, and the inflation environment is obviously different from the past. We recommend not to easily apply the model of the previous round of Fed tightening cycle. The swing in future Fed tightening expectations may be relatively limited. Therefore, in terms of overall allocation, we still recommend focusing on defense, waiting for a number of CPI data in March and the details of the monetary policies of the European and American central banks to be implemented.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a1214aa08c4d549c32893e7a076e6080\" tg-width=\"1010\" tg-height=\"591\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p></body></html></p>","source":"lsy1578966434845","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>CITIC Securities: Joy and Worry of Overseas Markets during the Spring Festival Holiday</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCITIC Securities: Joy and Worry of Overseas Markets during the Spring Festival Holiday\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">CS宏观研究</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-02-06 17:29</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><b>CORE POINT</b></p><p>During the Spring Festival holiday, global risk assets picked up slightly compared with before the holiday, but the \"mixed\" liquidity indicators indicated that asset prices still fluctuated greatly. It is expected that the actual US Treasury yields will fluctuate to around 0 in the future, and it is still one of the main risks for high-valuation sectors. The global economic cycle under the external impact of this round of epidemic is not comparable to previous cycles, and the swing of the Fed's tightening expectations in the future may be relatively limited. Therefore, in terms of overall allocation, we still recommend focusing on defense and waiting for a number of CPI data in March and the details of monetary policies of European and American central banks to be implemented.</p><p><b>SUMMARY</b></p><p>During the Spring Festival holiday, global risk assets picked up slightly compared with before the holiday. During the Spring Festival, the main line of market investment revolves around energy supply, corporate financial reports and monetary tightening expectations of major central banks. Among them, 1) Affected by severe cold weather in the United States and supply disruptions in oil-producing countries, international oil prices have increased by as much as 5-6% in the past week, much higher than other commodities. However, as the European energy crisis gradually shows signs of easing, European natural gas has fallen by more than 10% in the past week. We maintain<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600030\">CITIC Securities</a>-Top Ten Outlooks for Overseas Markets in 2022 \"(2022-1-6) The view that oil prices rose first (exceeding US $90/barrel) and then fell throughout the year. 2) In terms of stock markets, Asian stock indexes were among the top gainers, with the three major U.S. stock indexes rebounding by more than 1%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon</a>The financial reports of other companies turned the tide and drove the Nasdaq to rebound by more than 2%. However, due to the unsynchronized economic and profit cycles, it is difficult for the profit factors of US stock companies to have a forward-looking impact on other markets. 3) The Fed's tightening expectations that caused a sharp decline in global stock markets before the holiday did not ease significantly. Instead, they were further strengthened under the strong U.S. non-farm payrolls data and hawkish tightening expectations of the European and British banks. The 10-year US Treasury yields exceeded 1.9%.</p><p>Economic data: The U.S. job market improved significantly but remained tight, and inflation in the euro zone unexpectedly rose. In the United States, on the one hand, the number of new non-farm employment in January 2022 exceeded expectations, and the labor force participation rate increased significantly, indicating that the U.S. job market is recovering steadily and has not been significantly affected by the Omicron mutant strain. On the other hand, the number of job vacancies is still high, and the hourly wage growth rate exceeds expectations, indicating that the U.S. job market continues to be in short supply, and the risk of wage-price spiral continues to rise. In Europe, the euro zone reconciled CPI increased by 5.1% year-on-year in January, a record high and much higher than market expectations, while the year-on-year growth rate of core reconciled CPI dropped from the previous month. Inflation in the euro zone is mainly caused by high energy prices. At present, the probability of wage-price spiral risk is relatively low. It is expected that inflation in the euro zone may fall in the second half of this year.</p><p>Central Bank and monetary policy: The central banks of the United Kingdom and the European Union are releasing hawks together, and global monetary policy is tightening. As for the Bank of England, due to rising inflation, the Bank of England passed rate hike's 25bps decision by 5 votes to 4 at the February interest rate meeting. After rate hike's 15bps in December last year, it rate hike again and raised its policy interest rate to 0.5%. At this meeting, the Bank of England also announced the end of maturity reinvestment of British government bonds. At the same time, it should start selling corporate bonds and officially start a shrinking balance sheet. The hawkish degree exceeded market expectations. As for the European Central Bank, the attitude of the European Central Bank has changed dramatically as the January inflation data released the day before hit a record high. European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde's speech showed a hawkish style and no longer insisted on the previously emphasized assertion that \"rate hike is unlikely in 2022\", which may herald the official beginning of the European Central Bank's monetary policy to turn.</p><p>Looking ahead, the \"mixed\" liquidity indicators indicate that asset prices will still fluctuate greatly. The liquidity indicator (US Treasury yields + the US Dollar Index) during the Spring Festival holiday revealed the characteristics of \"mixed blessings and sorrows\". The \"happiness\" that global liquidity may improve marginally comes from: 1) The Federal Reserve has begun to have members speak to appease the market's anxiety about tightening. 2) Weakening the US Dollar Index will help reduce the external debt pressure of emerging countries, slow down unnecessary capital outflows, and free up more space and time for monetary operations for their domestic monetary policies. However, the long-term hidden \"worry\" of the ebb of global liquidity still exists: although asset prices have rebounded recently, the monetary tightening expectations of major developed central banks have not eased, but have been further strengthened by high energy prices and the accelerated tightening of the European Central Bank. It is expected that the actual US Treasury yields will fluctuate to around 0 in the future, and it is still one of the main risks for high-valuation sectors. The global economic cycle under the external impact of this round of epidemic is not comparable to previous cycles, and the swing of the Fed's tightening expectations in the future may be relatively limited. Therefore, in terms of overall allocation, we still recommend focusing on defense and waiting for a number of CPI data in March and the details of monetary policies of European and American central banks to be implemented.</p><p><b>text</b></p><p>Global risk assets picked up slightly during the Spring Festival holiday compared with before the holiday</p><p>During the Spring Festival holiday, global risk assets picked up slightly compared with before the holiday. The main line of market investment revolved around energy supply, corporate financial reports and monetary tightening expectations of major central banks. Wherein,</p><p>Affected by the severe cold weather in the United States and supply disruptions in oil-producing countries, international oil prices have risen by as much as 5-6% in the past week, much higher than other bulk products. However, as the European energy crisis gradually shows signs of easing, European natural gas has fallen by more than 10% in the past week. We maintain<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06030\">CITIC Securities</a>-Top Ten Outlooks for Overseas Markets in 2022 \"(2022-1-6) The view that oil prices rose first (exceeding US $90/barrel) and then fell throughout the year.</p><p>In terms of stock markets, Asian stock indexes were among the top gainers, with the three major U.S. stock indexes rebounding by more than 1%. The financial reports of Amazon and other companies turned the tide and drove the Nasdaq to rebound by more than 2%. However, due to the unsynchronized economic and profit cycles, it is difficult for the profit factors of U.S. stock companies to have a forward-looking impact on other markets.</p><p>Fed tightening expectations, which caused global stock markets to fall sharply before the holiday, have not eased significantly. On the contrary, tightening expectations were further strengthened under the strong U.S. non-farm payrolls data and hawkish tightening expectations of European and British banks, with 10-year US Treasury yields exceeding 1.9%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e0be7e8c223261cd02dc52aa37ed6e44\" tg-width=\"814\" tg-height=\"766\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>U.S. employment improves significantly but remains tight, euro zone inflation unexpectedly rises</b></p><p>During the Spring Festival, the United States and Europe released important economic data. The employment data in the United States exceeded expectations and the inflation level in Europe unexpectedly rose.</p><p>In January 2022, the number of new non-farm employment in the United States exceeded expectations, and the labor force participation rate increased significantly, indicating that the U.S. job market is recovering steadily and has not been significantly affected by the Omicron mutant strain. The number of new non-farm payrolls in the United States in January was 467,000, much higher than market expectations (-400,000 to 250,000). At the same time, the number of new non-farm payrolls in November and December last year was raised to 647,000 and 510,000 respectively, with a cumulative increase of 709,000 in two months. Although the unemployment rate rebounded slightly to 4.0% from 3.9% in December last year, the labor force participation rate increased significantly by 0.3 percentage points to 62.2%, which was only 0.5 percentage points different from 62.7% in March 2020. From the breakdown data, the leisure and hotel industries contributed the largest increase. In some areas, the requirement of showing vaccination certificates to enter indoor places may have increased people's willingness to work in the leisure and hotel industry to a certain extent. Although the household survey sample in January 2021 has changed compared with December 2020, resulting in possible errors in the direct comparison of the two-month data, the overall unexpected performance of the employment data still shows that the U.S. job market has not been significantly affected by the Omicron mutant strain., still on the road of steady repair.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4818e24c9c03bd09f032cc1797532e31\" tg-width=\"1037\" tg-height=\"536\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/15361daafa55dc6bd6d4815bae611bb4\" tg-width=\"1036\" tg-height=\"535\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>The number of job vacancies is still high, and the hourly wage growth rate exceeds expectations, indicating that the U.S. job market continues to be in short supply, and the risk of wage-price spiral continues to rise. The number of job vacancies in the United States reached 10.925 million in December 2021, significantly higher than the expected 10.3 million. At the same time, the number of job vacancies in November was revised upward from 10.562 million to 10.775 million. Accompanied by the high number of job vacancies, wage levels continue to grow rapidly. In January 2022, the month-on-month and year-on-year growth rates of U.S. non-farm employment hourly wages exceeded expectations, and the year-on-year growth rate of 5.7% was the largest increase since May 2020. The high number of job vacancies and the high growth rate of hourly wages show that employers are trying to raise wages to attract labor, but it is still difficult to change the short supply situation in the U.S. job market. The rapid rise in wages and prices has further increased the risk of a wage-price spiral in the United States.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2f84c2e46564df549e0c064c89edd703\" tg-width=\"642\" tg-height=\"543\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7025404106bbecd1dbc3e5374c8530a8\" tg-width=\"645\" tg-height=\"538\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>In January, the euro zone reconciled CPI increased by 5.1% year-on-year, a record high, much higher than market expectations, while the year-on-year growth rate of the core reconciled CPI dropped from the previous month. In January, the year-on-year growth rate of HICP in the euro zone reached 5.1%, much higher than market expectations of 4.4%. After reaching 5.0% in December 2020, it continued to remain high. In terms of sub-items, energy is the main factor driving up HICP in the euro zone. In January, the price of energy rose by 28.6% year-on-year, while the price of unprocessed food rose by 5.16% year-on-year. After excluding energy and food factors, the core HICP growth rate of the euro zone in January was 2.3% year-on-year, which was lower than the previous month, but still exceeded market expectations.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d6fe9d9446fcfbb259344a332a30b468\" tg-width=\"651\" tg-height=\"550\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e3460a8cc1a7514e31d1303a90ffbb2\" tg-width=\"653\" tg-height=\"541\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Inflation in the euro zone is mainly caused by high energy prices, and the probability of wage-price spiral risk is relatively low at present. The rapid growth of energy prices has led to higher-than-expected inflation growth in the euro zone, and the growth of energy prices may be related to the continued upward trend of crude oil prices. At the same time, under the influence of wider rising prices of goods and services, high inflation in the euro zone may remain high in the first half of the year. However, with the subsequent decline in energy prices, it is expected that inflation in the euro zone may fall in the second half of this year and may fall by the end of the year. Return to levels around 1.8%. As the wage growth rate in the euro zone is relatively flat, unlike the United States and Britain, the probability of wage-price spiral risk in Europe is low.</p><p><b>The UK and European central banks release hawks together, and global monetary policy is moving towards tightening</b></p><p>During the Spring Festival, both the Bank of England and the European Central Bank sent hawkish signals. Under the pressure of high inflation, global monetary policy is tightening.</p><p>At the interest rate meeting in February, the Bank of England's rate hike was 25pbs and started a shrinking balance sheet at the same time. The hawkish level exceeded market expectations. As inflation continues to rise, the Bank of England passed rate hike's 25bps decision by 5 votes to 4 at its February interest rate meeting. After rate hike's 15bps in December last year, it rate hike again and raised its policy interest rate to 0.5%. This is the first time since 2004 that the Bank of England has experienced a rate hike at two consecutive interest rate meetings. Although the rate hike is in line with market expectations, the Bank of England also announced at this meeting that it will end the maturity reinvestment of British government bonds. At the same time, it should start the sale of corporate bonds and officially start the shrinking balance sheet. The hawkish degree exceeds market expectations, reflecting the determination of the Bank of England to control inflation. At this interest rate meeting, some officials proposed a rate hike of 50bps, so the Bank of England may continue to rate hike in the future.</p><p>The European Central Bank also released hawkish signals at its interest rate meeting in February, and its sudden turn completely exceeded market expectations. As January inflation data released the day before hit a record high and far exceeded market expectations, the European Central Bank's attitude changed dramatically. Although the statement of the meeting was generally in line with expectations, the speech of European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde after the meeting showed a hawkish style. First of all, Lagarde said that the European Central Bank Governing Committee was unanimously worried that inflation would be high longer than expected; Secondly, she no longer insists on the assertion that \"rate hike is unlikely in 2022\" that she has been emphasizing before, saying that \"the situation has indeed changed.\" The sudden shift in his argument is similar to Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's first statement that \"it's time to give up the word'temporary '\", or it may indicate that the European Central Bank's monetary policy will officially begin to turn. However, even if the European Central Bank starts its rate hike, its first rate hike will take place after it stops expanding its balance sheet. At the same time, further attention needs to be paid to the subsequent changes in inflation data in the euro zone.</p><p><b>Liquidity indicators \"mixed\" indicate that asset price fluctuations are still large</b></p><p>During the Spring Festival holiday, liquidity indicators (US Treasury yields + the US Dollar Index) revealed the characteristics of \"mixed blessings and sorrows\". The \"happiness\" that global liquidity may improve marginally comes from:</p><p>1) The Federal Reserve began to have members speaking to appease the market's anxiety about tightening. On February 1st, Atlanta Fed President Bostic changed his mind and said that the Fed's rate hike would not be very aggressive, and he tended to rate hike three times during the year; Philadelphia Fed President Harker expressed disapproval of a 50bp rate hike; San Francisco Fed President Daly said that monetary policy should be changed step by step, and the current Fed's monetary policy actions do not lag behind the curve.</p><p>2) the US Dollar Index has weakened in stages, freeing up more space and time for the monetary policies of emerging market countries. Although the US Dollar Index mainly has a heavy exchange rate weight against the euro and the British pound, the US Dollar Index's weakness will indirectly boost commodity prices in emerging markets, reduce the external debt pressure of emerging countries, slow down unnecessary capital outflows, and free up more space and time for their domestic monetary policies.</p><p>However, the long-term hidden \"worry\" of the ebb of global liquidity still exists: although asset prices have rebounded recently, the monetary tightening expectations of major developed central banks have not eased, but have been further strengthened by high energy prices and the accelerated tightening of the European Central Bank. It is expected that the actual US Treasury yields will fluctuate up to around 0 in the future, and it is still one of the main risks for high-valuation sectors.</p><p>The global economic cycle under the external impact of this round of epidemic is not comparable to previous cycles. The current economic cycle is in the transition from the mid-cycle to the post-cycle, and the inflation environment is obviously different from the past. We recommend not to easily apply the model of the previous round of Fed tightening cycle. The swing in future Fed tightening expectations may be relatively limited. Therefore, in terms of overall allocation, we still recommend focusing on defense, waiting for a number of CPI data in March and the details of the monetary policies of the European and American central banks to be implemented.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a1214aa08c4d549c32893e7a076e6080\" tg-width=\"1010\" tg-height=\"591\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/653826.html\">CS宏观研究</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4270e14fdc3e34096f78e73c39325f97","relate_stocks":{"600030":"中信证券","06030":"中信证券","BK1521":"挪威政府全球养老基金持仓","BK1147":"投资银行业与经纪业","BK1564":"中资券商股","BK1516":"腾讯概念"},"source_url":"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/653826.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2209332881","content_text":"核心观点春节假期期间全球风险资产较节前略有回暖，但流动性指标的“喜忧参半”预示着资产价格波动依然较大。预计实际美债利率未来震荡上行至0附近，其对高估值板块依然是主要风险之一。本轮疫情外部冲击下的全球经济周期与以往周期不太可比，未来美联储紧缩预期的回摆幅度可能相对有限。因此，整体配置上，我们仍建议以防御为上，等待3月多项CPI数据和欧美央行货币政策细节落地。摘要春节假期期间全球风险资产较节前略有回暖。春节期间，市场投资的主线围绕能源供给、企业财报盈利以及主要央行货币紧缩预期展开。其中，1)受美国严寒天气、产油国供应中断等影响，国际油价近一周涨幅高达5-6%，远高于其他大宗商品。不过，随着欧洲能源危机逐步显露缓解迹象，欧洲天然气近一周下跌超10%。我们维持《中信证券—2022年海外市场十大展望》(2022-1-6)中油价全年先升(突破90美元/桶)后降的观点。2)股市方面，亚洲股指涨幅居前，美股三大股指反弹幅度超1%，亚马逊等企业财报力挽狂澜带动纳斯达克反弹超2%，但由于经济和盈利周期的不同步，美股企业盈利因素对其他市场难有前瞻影响。3)节前导致全球股市大幅下跌的美联储紧缩预期并没有显著缓和，反而在强劲的美国非农就业数据、欧洲和英国央行鹰派紧缩预期下进一步强化，10年期美债利率突破1.9%。经济数据：美国就业市场显著改善但仍显紧俏，欧元区通胀意外走高。美国方面，一方面，2022年1月新增非农就业人数超预期，劳动力参与率显著提升，显示美国就业市场稳步复苏，未明显受到Omicron变异毒株影响。另一方面，职位空缺数仍高，时薪增速超预期，显示美国就业市场供不应求状态延续，工资-价格螺旋风险继续上升。欧洲方面，1月欧元区调和CPI同比增长5.1%，创历史新高，且远高于市场预期，核心调和CPI同比增速则较前月有所回落。欧元区通胀主要由能源价格高企所致，目前出现工资-价格螺旋风险的概率还相对较低，预计欧元区通胀可能将在今年下半年回落。央行与货币政策：英欧央行齐放鹰，全球货币政策走向紧缩。英国央行方面，由于通胀不断上升，英国央行在2月议息会议上以5票比4票的票型通过了加息25bps的决定，继去年12月加息15bps后再次加息，将其政策利率上调至0.5%，英国央行在本次会议上还宣布结束对英国政府债券的到期再投资，同时应当启动出售公司债券，正式开启缩表，鹰派程度超出市场预期。欧洲央行方面，由于前一天公布的1月通胀数据创历史新高，欧洲央行态度发生巨大转变。欧洲央行行长拉加德讲话一展鹰派风格，不再坚持此前一直强调的“2022年不太可能加息”的论断，或将预示着欧洲央行货币政策正式开始转向。展望未来，流动性指标的“喜忧参半”预示着资产价格波动会依然较大。春节假期流动性指标(美债利率+美元指数)透露出“喜忧参半”的特点。全球流动性可能边际好转的“喜”来自：1)美联储开始有委员讲话安抚市场对紧缩的焦虑。2)美元指数走弱，有利于降低新兴国家的外部债务压力，减缓不必要的资金外流，为其国内货币政策腾挪了更多货币操作空间和时间。但是，全球流动性退潮的长期隐“忧”依然存在：尽管资产价格近期有所反弹，但主要发达央行的货币紧缩预期并没有缓和，反而因能源价格高企、欧洲央行紧缩提速而进一步强化。预计实际美债利率未来震荡上行至0附近，其对高估值板块依然是主要风险之一。本轮疫情外部冲击下的全球经济周期与以往周期不太可比，未来美联储紧缩预期的回摆幅度可能相对有限。因此，整体配置上，我们仍建议以防御为上，等待3月多项CPI数据和欧美央行货币政策细节落地。正文春节假期期间全球风险资产较节前略有回暖春节假期期间全球风险资产较节前略有回暖，市场投资的主线围绕能源供给、企业财报盈利以及主要央行货币紧缩预期展开。其中，受美国严寒天气、产油国供应中断等影响，国际油价近一周涨幅高达5-6%，远高于其他大宗。不过，随着欧洲能源危机逐步显露缓解迹象，欧洲天然气近一周下跌超10%。我们维持《中信证券—2022年海外市场十大展望》(2022-1-6)中油价全年先升(突破90美元/桶)后降的观点。股市方面，亚洲股指涨幅居前，美股三大股指反弹幅度超1%。亚马逊等企业财报力挽狂澜带动纳斯达克反弹超2%，但由于经济和盈利周期的不同步，美股企业盈利因素对其他市场难有前瞻影响。节前导致全球股市大幅下跌的美联储紧缩预期并没有显著缓和。紧缩预期反而在强劲的美国非农就业数据、欧洲和英国央行鹰派紧缩预期下进一步强化，10年期美债利率突破1.9%。美国就业显著改善但仍显紧俏，欧元区通胀意外走高春节期间美国和欧洲公布了重要经济数据，美国就业数据超预期向好，而欧洲通胀水平则意外走高。2022年1月美国新增非农就业人数超预期，劳动力参与率显著提升，显示美国就业市场稳步复苏，未明显受到Omicron变异毒株影响。美国1月新增非农就业人数46.7万人，远高于市场预期(-40万人~25万人)，同时去年11月和12月新增非农就业人数分别上调至64.7万人和51万人，两月上调累计增长70.9万人。尽管失业率较去年12月的3.9%小幅回升至4.0%，但劳动力参与率显著提升0.3个百分点至62.2%，仅与2020年3月的62.7%相差0.5个百分点。从分项数据看，休闲和酒店业贡献了最大增幅，部分地区进入室内场所需要出示疫苗接种证明的规定或许在一定程度上提升了人们进入休闲酒店业工作的意愿。尽管2021年1月的家庭调查样本较2020年12月发生变化导致直接比较两月的数据可能存在误差，但是就业数据整体超预期的表现依然显示美国就业市场并未明显受到Omicron变异毒株的影响，仍走在稳步修复的道路上。职位空缺数仍高，时薪增速超预期，显示美国就业市场供不应求状态延续，工资-价格螺旋风险继续上升。2021年12月美国职位空缺数达到1092.5万，显著高于预期的1030万，同时11月职位空缺数由1056.2万上修至1077.5万。与职位空缺数高企相伴随的是薪资水平不断快速增长，2022年1月美国非农就业时薪环比和同比增速均超预期，5.7%的同比增速创2020年5月以来的最大增幅。职位空缺数高叠加时薪增速高，显示雇主努力提升工资吸引劳动力，但依然难以改变美国就业市场供不应求的状况。而工资价格的快速上涨也进一步增加了美国出现工资-价格螺旋的风险。1月欧元区调和CPI同比增长5.1%，创历史新高，远高于市场预期，核心调和CPI同比增速则较上月有所回落。1月欧元区HICP同比增速达5.1%，远高于市场预期的4.4%，继2020年12月达到5.0%以后，继续居高不下。从分项看，能源项是推升欧元区HICP的主要因素，1月能源项价格同比上涨达28.6%，而未经加工食品价格同比上涨5.16%。剔除能源和食品因素后，1月欧元区核心HICP同比增速为2.3%，较上月有所回落，但仍然超出市场预期。欧元区通胀主要由能源价格高企所致，目前出现工资-价格螺旋风险的概率还相对较低。能源项价格的快速增长导致了欧元区通胀增长超预期，而能源项价格的增长可能与原油价格持续上行有关。同时在更广泛的商品和服务价格上涨影响下，欧元区的高通胀可能仍将在上半年维持高位，但随着能源价格后续回落，预计欧元区通胀可能将在今年下半年回落，年底可能回到1.8%左右的水平。由于欧元区工资增速相对平缓，因此，与美国英国不同，欧洲出现工资-价格螺旋风险的概率较低。英欧央行齐放鹰，全球货币政策走向紧缩春节期间英国央行和欧洲央行均发出鹰派信号，在高通胀压力下，全球货币政策正在走向紧缩。英国央行在2月的议息会议上加息25pbs，同时开启缩表，鹰派程度超出市场预期。由于通胀不断上升，英国央行在2月议息会议上以5票比4票的票型通过了加息25bps的决定，继去年12月加息15bps后再次加息，将其政策利率上调至0.5%，这是英国央行自2004年以来首次出现连续两次议息会议均加息的情况。尽管加息符合市场预期，但是英国央行在本次会议上还宣布结束对英国政府债券的到期再投资，同时应启动出售公司债券，正式开启缩表，鹰派程度超出市场预期，体现英国央行治理通胀的决心。而本次议息会议上还有部分官员提议加息50bps，因此后续英国央行或还将继续加息。欧洲央行在2月的议息会议上同样释放鹰派信号，其突然的转向完全超出市场预期。由于前一天公布的1月通胀数据创历史新高且远超市场预期，欧洲央行态度发生巨大转变。尽管会议声明总体符合预期，但会后欧洲央行行长拉加德的讲话则一展鹰派风格。首先，拉加德表示欧洲央行管委会一致担忧通胀高企时间长于预期;其次，她不再坚持此前一直强调的“2022年不太可能加息”的论断，表示“情况确实发生了变化”。其论调的突然转向与美联储主席鲍威尔首次表示“是时候放弃‘暂时性’这个词”有异曲同工之意，或预示着欧洲央行货币政策将正式开始转向。不过，即便欧洲央行开始加息，其首次加息的时点也将在停止扩表之后进行。同时，还需进一步关注后续欧元区通胀数据的变化。流动性指标“喜忧参半”预示资产价格波动依然较大春节假期期间，流动性指标(美债利率+美元指数)透露出“喜忧参半”的特点。全球流动性可能边际好转的“喜”来自：1)美联储开始有委员讲话安抚市场对紧缩的焦虑。2月1日亚特兰大联储主席Bostic改口称美联储加息不会很激进，其倾向年内加息3次;费城联储主席Harker表示不赞成一次加息50bp;旧金山联储主席Daly表示应循序渐进转变货币政策，当前美联储的货币政策行动并不滞后于曲线。2)美元指数阶段性走弱，为新兴市场国家的货币政策腾挪了更多操作空间和时间。尽管美元指数主要是兑欧元和英镑汇率权重大，但是美元指数的弱势会间接提振新兴市场商品价格，降低新兴国家的外部债务压力，减缓不必要的资金外流，为其国内货币政策腾挪出更多的更多货币操作空间和时间。但是，全球流动性退潮的长期隐“忧”依然存在：尽管资产价格近期有所反弹，但主要发达央行的货币紧缩预期并没有缓和，反而因能源价格高企、欧洲央行紧缩提速而进一步强化。预计实际美债利率未来会震荡上行至0附近，其对高估值板块依然是主要风险之一。本轮疫情外部冲击下的全球经济周期与以往周期不太可比，当前的经济周期处于中周期向后周期过渡，通胀环境明显不同于以往，我们建议不要轻易套用上一轮美联储紧缩周期的模式，未来美联储紧缩预期的回摆幅度可能相对有限。因此，整体配置上我们仍建议以防御为上，等待3月多项CPI数据和欧、美央行货币政策细节落地。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"600030":1,"06030":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":846,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments"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and play","listText":"go and play","text":"go and play","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9099410360","repostId":"9004448317","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":9004448317,"gmtCreate":1642676525258,"gmtModify":1676533734534,"author":{"id":"3527667667103859","authorId":"3527667667103859","name":"TigerEvents","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/c266ef25181ace18bec1262357bbe1a8","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3527667667103859","idStr":"3527667667103859"},"themes":[],"title":"Join Tiger Ski Championship, Win a Bonus of Up to USD 2022","htmlText":"2022 is the Year of Tiger in Chinese lunar calendar, it’s also a special year for Tiger Brokers. To celebrate the special year, we want to invite you to join the ski game presented by Tiger Brokers specially, and it’s very easy and interesting game for users to play. Join the game and win a bonus of up to USD 2022 and limited-edition Tiger Toys Spring Festival and Winter Olympic are both on the way, open your Tiger Trade App and play the ski game with us, win golden medals as many as you can! You could have chance to try Lucky Draw when you win medals.The more medal you win, the bigger bonus you may win! Big Rewards are as follow: <a href=\"https://www.tigerbrokers.com.sg/activity/market/2022/happy-new-year/#/\" target=\"_blank\">Click to Join the Game</a>","listText":"2022 is the Year of Tiger in Chinese lunar calendar, it’s also a special year for Tiger Brokers. To celebrate the special year, we want to invite you to join the ski game presented by Tiger Brokers specially, and it’s very easy and interesting game for users to play. Join the game and win a bonus of up to USD 2022 and limited-edition Tiger Toys Spring Festival and Winter Olympic are both on the way, open your Tiger Trade App and play the ski game with us, win golden medals as many as you can! You could have chance to try Lucky Draw when you win medals.The more medal you win, the bigger bonus you may win! Big Rewards are as follow: <a href=\"https://www.tigerbrokers.com.sg/activity/market/2022/happy-new-year/#/\" target=\"_blank\">Click to Join the Game</a>","text":"2022 is the Year of Tiger in Chinese lunar calendar, it’s also a special year for Tiger Brokers. To celebrate the special year, we want to invite you to join the ski game presented by Tiger Brokers specially, and it’s very easy and interesting game for users to play. Join the game and win a bonus of up to USD 2022 and limited-edition Tiger Toys Spring Festival and Winter Olympic are both on the way, open your Tiger Trade App and play the ski game with us, win golden medals as many as you can! You could have chance to try Lucky Draw when you win medals.The more medal you win, the bigger bonus you may win! Big Rewards are as follow: Click to Join the Game","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a7b44fa056439fb4010fa55e163d27c3","width":"750","height":"1726"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9004448317","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":2,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":699,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9008828563,"gmtCreate":1641424252257,"gmtModify":1676533612445,"author":{"id":"4094536006197120","authorId":"4094536006197120","name":"不死鸟.","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/58aa91ee114515837a7c24d97a1ac173","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4094536006197120","idStr":"4094536006197120"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"power,💪👍","listText":"power,💪👍","text":"power,💪👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9008828563","repostId":"1178072021","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1178072021","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"有视角的商业资讯交流平台","home_visible":1,"media_name":"虎嗅APP","id":"101","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/98669fe7974e42f3976b3db47528792d"},"pubTimestamp":1641396607,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1178072021?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-01-05 23:30","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Next year, BYD will surpass Tesla?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1178072021","media":"虎嗅APP","summary":"过去的2021年，国内新能源汽车产销量约在300万辆。一些乐观的人士认为，2022年国内新能源汽车销量会达到500万辆。市场在飞速扩张，资本市场会继续狂热。所有新能源车企，都面临巨大的市场机会。谁会是","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>In the past 2021, domestic production and sales of new energy vehicles will be approximately 3 million. Some optimists believe that domestic sales of new energy vehicles will reach 5 million in 2022. The market is expanding rapidly, and the capital market will continue to be frenzied. All new energy vehicle companies are facing huge market opportunities.</p><p>Who will be the new winner, most people will say<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>, but some analysts believe it is<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002594\">BYD</a>。</p><p>\"BYD's sales will surpass Tesla's in 2023,\" BYD's \"iron fan\" Citibank once made such a prediction in mid-2021.</p><p>In Citibank's latest forecast, it believes that BYD's sales in 2022 will exceed 1.3 million vehicles, and raises BYD's stock price target price to 504 yuan. Based on this target price, BYD's stock price (BYD's closing price today is 253.2 yuan, with a total market value of 685.92 billion yuan) can double, and BYD's market value will exceed<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300750\">Ningde era</a>, ranking third in A shares.</p><p>Citibank has said that in the future market competition, new energy vehicles priced below US $18,000 will quickly occupy the market. Tesla has not yet reached this price range, and no other competitor can compete with BYD.</p><p>In addition to sales, the valuation ratio given by Citibank to BYD is almost the same as that of Tesla. At present, in terms of market value, BYD is only about one tenth of Tesla. The valuation ratio given by most analysts to BYD (150 to 190 times in P/E) is lower than that of Tesla (more than 300 times in Tesla's P/E). The reasons include that the average selling price of BYD's vehicles is lower than that of Tesla and there are shortcomings in intelligence and brand image.</p><p>However, according to Citibank's valuation ratio (about 450 times based on BYD's Q3 net profit), BYD, which has shortcomings in intelligent fields such as autonomous driving, is on par with Tesla in future growth, or even higher.</p><p>Cowhide has already helped BYD blow it out, can BYD do it?</p><p><b>Whoever sells more is the boss</b></p><p>At present, the competition in the new energy automobile industry is still in the \"first half\". Although some car companies have built barriers to intelligence, the competition in the first half is still the competition of market size. At this stage, the biggest basis for the valuation of new energy car companies is the sales data of car companies.</p><p>As December sales exceeded expectations, Citibank once again fine-tuned its target price for BYD. BYD's sales reached 99,000 vehicles in December, of which new energy vehicle sales reached 92,800, a year-on-year increase of 236.4%.</p><p>In December 2021, when sales hit a new high, part of BYD's production capacity was affected by the Xi'an epidemic, resulting in delivery delays. In the whole year of 2021, BYD has about 200,000 undelivered orders due to limited production capacity. Citibank believes that BYD, which is already hot on the demand side, will perform better in 2022 than originally expected due to delayed delivery of orders for about 200,000 vehicles.</p><p>Due to the explosive growth of BYD's sales in the second half of 2021, Citibank has repeatedly raised its valuation of BYD. In September 2021, Citibank raised BYD's target price from 352 yuan to 461 yuan, an increase of more than 30%. The increase in target price this time is mainly due to the surge in demand for BYD's new energy vehicles and its long-term cost structure advantages.</p><p>The main reason for Citibank to raise the target price this time is that BYD has performed well on the demand side, and its production capacity is gradually improving. In 2022, when the penetration rate of new energy vehicles gradually increases, BYD's delivery volume will be steadily released. Citibank predicts that BYD's delivery volume in 2022-202 will reach 1.3, 1.75 and 2 million vehicles respectively.</p><p>This target is slightly higher than BYD's own sales expectations, which have previously stated that it expects to sell about 1.2 million vehicles in 2022.</p><p>\"The target of 1.2 million vehicles is a bit conservative for BYD.\" A new energy vehicle analyst believes that BYD has stepped on the hybrid and pure electric markets, and has self-sustaining power battery and semiconductor production capacity. On the demand side Under the same circumstances, it is not difficult for BYD to achieve the target of 1.3 million vehicles in 2022.</p><p>Domestic institutions such as Essence Securities estimate BYD's sales in 2022 at 1.4 million vehicles. However, the valuation of BYD reported by such analysts is between 350 and 400 yuan, far lower than Citibank's 504 yuan. The difference is that Essence Securities and other institutions believe that BYD's valuation logic is different from that of pure electric vehicle companies such as new car-making forces.</p><p>\"Citibank's perspective is to completely benchmark BYD's valuation multiple against Tesla. Only Tesla and BYD can really break the production capacity hell in 2022, and have the ability to deliver orders on a large scale,\" a brokerage analyst said to Tiger Sniff.</p><p>In terms of production capacity expansion, BYD recently stated that it will open three new factories and increase its production capacity by 500,000 vehicles by the second quarter of 2022. According to incomplete statistics from Huxiu, after adding the production capacity of 500,000 vehicles, BYD's annual pure electric and hybrid production capacity will exceed 1.4 million vehicles. And according to<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a>Analysts expect Tesla's annual production capacity to exceed 1.8 million vehicles in 2022, including the Berlin factory.</p><p>Although BYD's production capacity expansion speed is not as fast as Tesla's, BYD has advantages in product iteration in the short term. \"Tesla will not have new models in 2022, but BYD's ocean series and new hybrid models will be launched in 2022. BYD's models are priced lower than Tesla's and have higher potential in terms of sales performance.\", US stock analyst Ed Carson said in his commentary.</p><p>At present, there is still a big gap between BYD and Tesla's gross profit margin of vehicles. However, the aforementioned industry insiders believe that this gap is being narrowed. \"The new investment in dmi technology is very small, coupled with factors such as the scale effect of BYD's new models beginning to appear, and the cost of single vehicles has dropped, the gross profit margin of the whole vehicle will continue to rise.\" Since most of the sales come from hybrid models, the impact of the reduction of new energy subsidies on BYD will be smaller than that of Tesla.</p><p><b>BYD is so fierce, why can't it rise?</b></p><p>Although BYD's future growth is not inferior to Tesla's, BYD's performance in the secondary market in recent years is far worse than Tesla's, and not as good as CATL.</p><p>After the market value briefly crossed the threshold of 900 billion yuan in 2021, some institutions once shouted the slogan \"BYD will be trillions tomorrow\". But as of press time, BYD's market value has dropped by 700 billion again, which is far from the threshold of trillion market value.</p><p>\"From P/E's point of view, BYD's valuation is already very high. The valuation method used by Citibank is the price-to-sales ratio, which refers to revenue rather than net profit.\" The aforementioned person said that because BYD includes low-valued businesses such as mobile phone assembly and fuel vehicles, and the capital market's valuation of stocks refers more to P/E, so BYD's stock price is already too high in the eyes of some institutions.</p><p>The first is the gap in earning power. In 2021, BYD once fell into a situation of increasing revenue but not increasing profits. In the first three quarters of 2021, BYD's revenue was 145.19 billion yuan, and its net profit was only 2.44 billion yuan. For comparison, Tesla's Q3GAAP operating profit in 2021 is US $2 billion, and its net profit in one quarter is about 6 times that of BYD's net profit in three quarters.</p><p>\"The gap between BYD's vehicle gross profit margin and Tesla is about 5%, but the net profit margin gap is very large, mainly because BYD's self-sustaining supply chain business has not started external supply, and these businesses have caused great cost pressure on BYD.\", an insider of a power battery company once told Huxiu.</p><p>Secondly, there is the gap in intelligence. Previously, some Wall Street analysts even said that 60% of Tesla's valuation came from software revenue, insurance, charging services and other fields. And some analysts who are bullish on Tesla even valued Tesla's software revenue to more than $400 billion.</p><p>The extra US $400 billion is almost blank in BYD. At present, BYD has not launched self-driving services with similar fees.</p><p>\"Tesla's valuation logic is no longer a simple car company, but BYD's valuation logic should not be a car company either.\" Ed Carson believes that if the timeline is extended to 10-20 years, Tesla's imagination is in software, while BYD's imagination is in hardware fields such as power batteries and semiconductors.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600030\">CITIC Securities</a>It also said a few days ago, \"We believe that the company's greater investment value in the future is to be a neutral one-stop solution provider for new energy vehicles, including lithium batteries (blade battery technology, etc.), semiconductors (IGBTs), three-in-one motors/Electronic control technology, etc.\"</p><p>Under this premise, Tesla and BYD will move towards two completely different ends.</p><p>\"From the perspective of the company's business layout, Citibank's valuation ratio is reasonable, but the difference between Tesla and BYD is that Tesla has begun to turn expectations into reality, but BYD has made progress in addition to the vehicle business. In addition, the supply chain business has not made particularly big progress,\" said the aforementioned person.</p><p>Optimistic people will regard these businesses as \"Tesla\" + \"CATL\" + \"Foxconn\" + \"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/0KED.UK\">Infineon</a>\", this is almost BYD's ceiling, but it also means that BYD will win the competition with these industry leaders.</p><p>Except for the possibility of new energy vehicles surpassing Tesla in sales and the low-valued mobile phone OEM business comparable to Foxconn, BYD's other segments still have a long way to go.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Next year, BYD will surpass Tesla?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNext year, BYD will surpass Tesla?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/101\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/98669fe7974e42f3976b3db47528792d);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">虎嗅APP </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-01-05 23:30</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>In the past 2021, domestic production and sales of new energy vehicles will be approximately 3 million. Some optimists believe that domestic sales of new energy vehicles will reach 5 million in 2022. The market is expanding rapidly, and the capital market will continue to be frenzied. All new energy vehicle companies are facing huge market opportunities.</p><p>Who will be the new winner, most people will say<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>, but some analysts believe it is<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002594\">BYD</a>。</p><p>\"BYD's sales will surpass Tesla's in 2023,\" BYD's \"iron fan\" Citibank once made such a prediction in mid-2021.</p><p>In Citibank's latest forecast, it believes that BYD's sales in 2022 will exceed 1.3 million vehicles, and raises BYD's stock price target price to 504 yuan. Based on this target price, BYD's stock price (BYD's closing price today is 253.2 yuan, with a total market value of 685.92 billion yuan) can double, and BYD's market value will exceed<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300750\">Ningde era</a>, ranking third in A shares.</p><p>Citibank has said that in the future market competition, new energy vehicles priced below US $18,000 will quickly occupy the market. Tesla has not yet reached this price range, and no other competitor can compete with BYD.</p><p>In addition to sales, the valuation ratio given by Citibank to BYD is almost the same as that of Tesla. At present, in terms of market value, BYD is only about one tenth of Tesla. The valuation ratio given by most analysts to BYD (150 to 190 times in P/E) is lower than that of Tesla (more than 300 times in Tesla's P/E). The reasons include that the average selling price of BYD's vehicles is lower than that of Tesla and there are shortcomings in intelligence and brand image.</p><p>However, according to Citibank's valuation ratio (about 450 times based on BYD's Q3 net profit), BYD, which has shortcomings in intelligent fields such as autonomous driving, is on par with Tesla in future growth, or even higher.</p><p>Cowhide has already helped BYD blow it out, can BYD do it?</p><p><b>Whoever sells more is the boss</b></p><p>At present, the competition in the new energy automobile industry is still in the \"first half\". Although some car companies have built barriers to intelligence, the competition in the first half is still the competition of market size. At this stage, the biggest basis for the valuation of new energy car companies is the sales data of car companies.</p><p>As December sales exceeded expectations, Citibank once again fine-tuned its target price for BYD. BYD's sales reached 99,000 vehicles in December, of which new energy vehicle sales reached 92,800, a year-on-year increase of 236.4%.</p><p>In December 2021, when sales hit a new high, part of BYD's production capacity was affected by the Xi'an epidemic, resulting in delivery delays. In the whole year of 2021, BYD has about 200,000 undelivered orders due to limited production capacity. Citibank believes that BYD, which is already hot on the demand side, will perform better in 2022 than originally expected due to delayed delivery of orders for about 200,000 vehicles.</p><p>Due to the explosive growth of BYD's sales in the second half of 2021, Citibank has repeatedly raised its valuation of BYD. In September 2021, Citibank raised BYD's target price from 352 yuan to 461 yuan, an increase of more than 30%. The increase in target price this time is mainly due to the surge in demand for BYD's new energy vehicles and its long-term cost structure advantages.</p><p>The main reason for Citibank to raise the target price this time is that BYD has performed well on the demand side, and its production capacity is gradually improving. In 2022, when the penetration rate of new energy vehicles gradually increases, BYD's delivery volume will be steadily released. Citibank predicts that BYD's delivery volume in 2022-202 will reach 1.3, 1.75 and 2 million vehicles respectively.</p><p>This target is slightly higher than BYD's own sales expectations, which have previously stated that it expects to sell about 1.2 million vehicles in 2022.</p><p>\"The target of 1.2 million vehicles is a bit conservative for BYD.\" A new energy vehicle analyst believes that BYD has stepped on the hybrid and pure electric markets, and has self-sustaining power battery and semiconductor production capacity. On the demand side Under the same circumstances, it is not difficult for BYD to achieve the target of 1.3 million vehicles in 2022.</p><p>Domestic institutions such as Essence Securities estimate BYD's sales in 2022 at 1.4 million vehicles. However, the valuation of BYD reported by such analysts is between 350 and 400 yuan, far lower than Citibank's 504 yuan. The difference is that Essence Securities and other institutions believe that BYD's valuation logic is different from that of pure electric vehicle companies such as new car-making forces.</p><p>\"Citibank's perspective is to completely benchmark BYD's valuation multiple against Tesla. Only Tesla and BYD can really break the production capacity hell in 2022, and have the ability to deliver orders on a large scale,\" a brokerage analyst said to Tiger Sniff.</p><p>In terms of production capacity expansion, BYD recently stated that it will open three new factories and increase its production capacity by 500,000 vehicles by the second quarter of 2022. According to incomplete statistics from Huxiu, after adding the production capacity of 500,000 vehicles, BYD's annual pure electric and hybrid production capacity will exceed 1.4 million vehicles. And according to<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a>Analysts expect Tesla's annual production capacity to exceed 1.8 million vehicles in 2022, including the Berlin factory.</p><p>Although BYD's production capacity expansion speed is not as fast as Tesla's, BYD has advantages in product iteration in the short term. \"Tesla will not have new models in 2022, but BYD's ocean series and new hybrid models will be launched in 2022. BYD's models are priced lower than Tesla's and have higher potential in terms of sales performance.\", US stock analyst Ed Carson said in his commentary.</p><p>At present, there is still a big gap between BYD and Tesla's gross profit margin of vehicles. However, the aforementioned industry insiders believe that this gap is being narrowed. \"The new investment in dmi technology is very small, coupled with factors such as the scale effect of BYD's new models beginning to appear, and the cost of single vehicles has dropped, the gross profit margin of the whole vehicle will continue to rise.\" Since most of the sales come from hybrid models, the impact of the reduction of new energy subsidies on BYD will be smaller than that of Tesla.</p><p><b>BYD is so fierce, why can't it rise?</b></p><p>Although BYD's future growth is not inferior to Tesla's, BYD's performance in the secondary market in recent years is far worse than Tesla's, and not as good as CATL.</p><p>After the market value briefly crossed the threshold of 900 billion yuan in 2021, some institutions once shouted the slogan \"BYD will be trillions tomorrow\". But as of press time, BYD's market value has dropped by 700 billion again, which is far from the threshold of trillion market value.</p><p>\"From P/E's point of view, BYD's valuation is already very high. The valuation method used by Citibank is the price-to-sales ratio, which refers to revenue rather than net profit.\" The aforementioned person said that because BYD includes low-valued businesses such as mobile phone assembly and fuel vehicles, and the capital market's valuation of stocks refers more to P/E, so BYD's stock price is already too high in the eyes of some institutions.</p><p>The first is the gap in earning power. In 2021, BYD once fell into a situation of increasing revenue but not increasing profits. In the first three quarters of 2021, BYD's revenue was 145.19 billion yuan, and its net profit was only 2.44 billion yuan. For comparison, Tesla's Q3GAAP operating profit in 2021 is US $2 billion, and its net profit in one quarter is about 6 times that of BYD's net profit in three quarters.</p><p>\"The gap between BYD's vehicle gross profit margin and Tesla is about 5%, but the net profit margin gap is very large, mainly because BYD's self-sustaining supply chain business has not started external supply, and these businesses have caused great cost pressure on BYD.\", an insider of a power battery company once told Huxiu.</p><p>Secondly, there is the gap in intelligence. Previously, some Wall Street analysts even said that 60% of Tesla's valuation came from software revenue, insurance, charging services and other fields. And some analysts who are bullish on Tesla even valued Tesla's software revenue to more than $400 billion.</p><p>The extra US $400 billion is almost blank in BYD. At present, BYD has not launched self-driving services with similar fees.</p><p>\"Tesla's valuation logic is no longer a simple car company, but BYD's valuation logic should not be a car company either.\" Ed Carson believes that if the timeline is extended to 10-20 years, Tesla's imagination is in software, while BYD's imagination is in hardware fields such as power batteries and semiconductors.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600030\">CITIC Securities</a>It also said a few days ago, \"We believe that the company's greater investment value in the future is to be a neutral one-stop solution provider for new energy vehicles, including lithium batteries (blade battery technology, etc.), semiconductors (IGBTs), three-in-one motors/Electronic control technology, etc.\"</p><p>Under this premise, Tesla and BYD will move towards two completely different ends.</p><p>\"From the perspective of the company's business layout, Citibank's valuation ratio is reasonable, but the difference between Tesla and BYD is that Tesla has begun to turn expectations into reality, but BYD has made progress in addition to the vehicle business. In addition, the supply chain business has not made particularly big progress,\" said the aforementioned person.</p><p>Optimistic people will regard these businesses as \"Tesla\" + \"CATL\" + \"Foxconn\" + \"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/0KED.UK\">Infineon</a>\", this is almost BYD's ceiling, but it also means that BYD will win the competition with these industry leaders.</p><p>Except for the possibility of new energy vehicles surpassing Tesla in sales and the low-valued mobile phone OEM business comparable to Foxconn, BYD's other segments still have a long way to go.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1fd0da05276c012aa30786f590cc9ed3","relate_stocks":{"002594":"比亚迪","BK4555":"新能源车","BK1509":"特斯拉概念股","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BK1539":"汽车股","BK4527":"明星科技股","BK1522":"燃料电池","BK4551":"寇图资本持仓","TSLA":"特斯拉","01211":"比亚迪股份","BK4099":"汽车制造商","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","BK1582":"深圳本地概念股","BK1119":"汽车制造商","BK1594":"碳中和概念股","BK1540":"电池"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1178072021","content_text":"过去的2021年，国内新能源汽车产销量约在300万辆。一些乐观的人士认为，2022年国内新能源汽车销量会达到500万辆。市场在飞速扩张，资本市场会继续狂热。所有新能源车企，都面临巨大的市场机会。谁会是新的赢家，大部分人会说特斯拉，但一些分析机构认为是比亚迪。“比亚迪的销量会在2023年超越特斯拉”，比亚迪的“铁粉”花旗银行曾在2021年中作出这样的预测。在花旗银行最新的预测中，其认为比亚迪2022年的销量将突破130万辆，且把比亚迪的股价目标价提升至504元。按这个目标价计算，比亚迪的股价（比亚迪今日收盘价253.2元，总市值6859.2亿元）还可以翻一倍，届时比亚迪的市值将超过宁德时代，位列A股第三。花旗银行曾表示，在未来的市场竞争中，售价低于1.8万美元的新能源汽车将迅速占领市场。特斯拉还未到达这个价位区间，其他对手没有比亚迪能打。除了销量外，花旗银行给到比亚迪的估值倍率几乎向特斯拉看齐。目前在市值上，比亚迪仅为特斯拉的约十分之一。多数分析机构给到比亚迪的估值倍率（市盈率在150至190倍）都低于特斯拉（特斯拉市盈率超过300倍），原因包括比亚迪整车平均售价低于特斯拉且在智能化、品牌形象上存在短板。但按照花旗银行的估值倍率（按比亚迪Q3净利润计算约为450倍）来看，在自动驾驶等智能化领域存在短板的比亚迪，在未来的成长性上与特斯拉平起平坐，甚至更高。牛皮已经帮比亚迪吹出去了，比亚迪能做到吗？谁卖得多，谁才是老大目前新能源汽车产业的竞争仍处于“上半场”，尽管部分车企已在智能化方面筑起壁垒，但上半场的竞争仍是市场规模的竞争。现阶段对新能源车企估值的最大基础，就是车企的销量数据。因12月销量超出预期，花旗银行再次微调了对比亚迪的目标价。12月比亚迪销量达9.9万辆，其中新能源汽车销量达9.28万辆，同比增长236.4%。销量创下新高的2021年12月，比亚迪的部分产能受西安疫情影响导致交付延期。2021年一整年，比亚迪由于产能受限而未交付的订单约有20万辆。花旗银行认为，在需求端本就火爆的比亚迪，因约20万辆的订单延迟交付，2022年的表现会比原本的预期更加出色。因比亚迪在2021年下半年销量的爆发式增长，花旗银行曾多次上调对比亚迪的估值。2021年9月，花旗银行将比亚迪的目标价从352元提升至461元，涨幅超过30%。该次提高目标价主要是出于对比亚迪新能源汽车的需求猛增，以及其长期的成本结构优势的考虑。而本次上调目标价，花旗银行的主要理由是，比亚迪在需求端表现良好，且产能情况逐渐好转，在新能源汽车渗透率逐渐提高的2022年，比亚迪的交付量将会稳步释放。花旗银行预计比亚迪2022-202年的交付量将分别达到130、175及200万辆。这个目标略高于比亚迪自身的销量预期，比亚迪此前曾表示2022年预计销量约为120万辆。“120万辆的目标，对比亚迪而言略显保守了”，一位新能源汽车分析师认为，比亚迪踩中了混动及纯电两个市场，且自持动力电池及半导体产能，在需求端不变的情况下，比亚迪2022年完成130万辆的目标并不困难。国内的安信证券等机构，对比亚迪2022年的销量预估都为140万辆。但这类分析机构的报告给到比亚迪的估值均在350-400元之间，远低于花旗银行的504元。区别在于，安信证券等机构认为比亚迪的估值逻辑与造车新势力等纯电动车企不同。“花旗银行的视角是把比亚迪的估值倍数完全对标特斯拉的，在2022年真正能打破产能地狱，且有能力大规模交付订单的只有特斯拉和比亚迪”，一位券商分析师对虎嗅表示。在产能扩张方面，比亚迪日前表示将开设三个新工厂，到2022年第二季度将增加50万辆的产能。据虎嗅不完全统计，加上这50万辆产能后，比亚迪的纯电加混动年产能将超过140万辆。而据摩根士丹利分析师预计，算上柏林工厂后，特斯拉在2022年的年产能将超过180万辆。虽然比亚迪的产能扩张速度不如特斯拉，但在产品迭代上，比亚迪短期内存在优势。“特斯拉在2022年不会有新的车型，但比亚迪的海洋系列及新的混动车型将在2022年上市，比亚迪的车型定价低于特斯拉，在销量表现上具有更高的潜力”，美股分析师爱德卡森在其评论文章中表示。目前，比亚迪与特斯拉的整车毛利率仍有较大差距。但前述业内人士认为，这种差距正在被缩小。“dmi技术新增投入很小，加上比亚迪新车型的规模化效应开始显现，单车成本下降等因素，整车毛利率会继续上浮”。而因多半销量来自于混动车型，新能源补贴退坡对比亚迪造成的影响也将小于特斯拉。比亚迪这么猛，为什么涨不动？虽然比亚迪未来的成长性不逊色于特斯拉，但最近几年比亚迪在二级市场的表现远差于特斯拉，还不如宁德时代。在2021年市值短暂越过9000亿元的门槛后，曾有部分机构喊出“比亚迪明天就上万亿”的口号。但截至发稿前，比亚迪的市值重新跌落7000亿，离万亿市值的门槛又远了。“从市盈率的角度来看，比亚迪的估值已经很高了，花旗银行用的估值法是市销率，参考的是营收而非净利润”，前述人士表示，由于比亚迪包含手机组装、燃油车等估值不高的业务，且资本市场对股票的估值更多参考市盈率，所以比亚迪的股价在部分机构看来已经过高。首先是赚钱能力上的差距。在2021年，比亚迪一度陷入增收不增利的局面。2021年前三季度，比亚迪营收1451.9亿元，净利润仅为24.4亿元。作为对比，特斯拉2021年Q3GAAP营业利润为20亿美元，一个季度的净利润约为比亚迪三个季度净利润的6倍。“比亚迪整车毛利率与特斯拉的差距大概是5%，但是净利率差距非常大，主要是因为比亚迪的自持供应链业务没有开始外供，这些业务给比亚迪造成了很大的成本压力”，一位动力电池企业内部人士曾对虎嗅表示。其次是智能化方面的差距。此前，部分华尔街的分析机构甚至表示，特斯拉60%的估值来自于软件收入、保险、充电服务等领域。而其中部分看多特斯拉的分析师甚至把特斯拉的软件收入估值拉到超过4000亿美元。而这多出的4000亿美元，在比亚迪这几乎是空白，目前比亚迪并未推出类似收费的自动驾驶服务。“特斯拉的估值逻辑早就不是单纯的车企，但比亚迪的估值逻辑也不应该是车企”，爱德卡森认为，如果将时间线拉长到10-20年，特斯拉的想象空间在软件，而比亚迪的想象空间在动力电池、半导体等硬件领域。中信证券也在日前表示，“我们认为公司后续更大的投资价值是作为中性的新能源汽车一站式解决方案提供商，包括锂电池(刀片电池技术等)、半导体(IGBT)、三合一电机/电控技术等”。在这样的前提下，特斯拉和比亚迪将走向两个完全不同的终点。“从公司的业务布局来看，花旗银行的估值倍率是有道理的，但是特斯拉与比亚迪的区别就是，特斯拉已经开始把预期变为现实，但比亚迪除了整车业务有进展外，供应链业务并没有特别大的进展”，前述人士表示。乐观的人会把这些业务看成“特斯拉”+“宁德时代”+“富士康”+“英飞凌”，这几乎是比亚迪的天花板，但也意味着比亚迪要在和这些行业龙头的竞争中获胜。除了新能源整车有可能在销量上超越特斯拉外及估值不高的手机代工业务媲美富士康外，比亚迪的其他细分业务还有很长的路要走。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"01211":0.9,"002594":0.9,"TSLA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":528,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9958293868,"gmtCreate":1673743649555,"gmtModify":1676538880127,"author":{"id":"4094536006197120","authorId":"4094536006197120","name":"不死鸟.","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/58aa91ee114515837a7c24d97a1ac173","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4094536006197120","idStr":"4094536006197120"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👍","listText":"👍","text":"👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9958293868","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":627,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9983323758,"gmtCreate":1666155994275,"gmtModify":1676537715320,"author":{"id":"4094536006197120","authorId":"4094536006197120","name":"不死鸟.","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/58aa91ee114515837a7c24d97a1ac173","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4094536006197120","idStr":"4094536006197120"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👍👍","listText":"👍👍","text":"👍👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9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