Elmo.ek personal page - To The Moon

Elmo.ek

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2022-07-19

Good

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2022-11-28

Great

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2022-12-23

Buy

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2022-10-17

👍🏻

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2022-10-11

👍🏻

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2022-11-17

Good

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2022-08-10

Good write up

Tesla: The EV Tax Credit Is A Huge Catalyst

2022-07-18

Hope is a good news

Grab Shares Jumped 10% in Morning Trading

2022-12-12

Both

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2022-11-29

Great

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Go to Tiger App to see more news

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is a good news&nbsp;","listText":"Hope is a good news&nbsp;","text":"Hope is a good news","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9075378519","repostId":"1165817190","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1165817190","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1658153734,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1165817190?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-07-18 22:15","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Grab Shares Jumped 10% in Morning Trading","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1165817190","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Grab shares jumped 10% in morning trading after JPMorgan analyst Ranjan Sharma upgraded Grab 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nGrab Shares Jumped 10% in Morning Trading\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-07-18 22:15</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>Grab shares jumped 10% in morning trading after JPMorgan analyst Ranjan Sharma upgraded Grab Holdings to Overweight from Neutral with a $3 price target.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d18e5315f88e0fee548e9af571cb956d\" tg-width=\"856\" tg-height=\"621\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"GRAB":"Grab Holdings"},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1165817190","content_text":"Grab shares jumped 10% in morning trading after JPMorgan analyst Ranjan Sharma upgraded Grab Holdings to Overweight from Neutral with a $3 price target.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"GRAB":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":984,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9071346295,"gmtCreate":1657496252817,"gmtModify":1676536012783,"author":{"id":"4098882746619960","authorId":"4098882746619960","name":"Elmo.ek","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4098882746619960","idStr":"4098882746619960"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Great","listText":"Great","text":"Great","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9071346295","repostId":"1106697268","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":994,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9079234513,"gmtCreate":1657202559533,"gmtModify":1676535968510,"author":{"id":"4098882746619960","authorId":"4098882746619960","name":"Elmo.ek","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4098882746619960","idStr":"4098882746619960"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9079234513","repostId":"1121519092","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1295,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9042306820,"gmtCreate":1656428500660,"gmtModify":1676535826393,"author":{"id":"4098882746619960","authorId":"4098882746619960","name":"Elmo.ek","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4098882746619960","idStr":"4098882746619960"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"👍🏻","listText":"👍🏻","text":"👍🏻","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9042306820","repostId":"2246206338","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2246206338","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1656399806,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2246206338?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-06-28 15:03","market":"hk","language":"en","title":"NIO: A Volatile But Very Profitable Road Ahead","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2246206338","media":"Seekingalpha","summary":"There's a lot to like concerning NIO Inc. (NYSE:NIO) after it got hammered in the face of several ne","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>There&#39;s a lot to like concerning NIO Inc. (NYSE:NIO) after it got hammered in the face of several negative catalysts that drove the price down to as low as $11.67 on May 12. Since then, it has doubled as I write, making it a terrific performer for those that got in near the low.</p><p>The quick jump in price does make me believe there will be an eventual sell-off as investors take some profits off the table, which could further drop if temporary bad news hits the stock near the time of a sell-off; the most likely being another shutdown in Shanghai.</p><p>But even in that worst-case scenario, the downward pressure on the price of NIO would only be temporary because the narrative surrounding the company has been consistently improving over the last month or so.</p><p>I believe the worst is behind NIO because the negative catalysts have already been baked into its share price. For that reason, it should enjoy steady and consistent growth going forward, although it will likely be a bumpy ride. Patient investors should generate some solid returns over the next couple of years and further out if there are no macro-economic or significant geopolitical events that impact the global economy and the EV sector.</p><h2>How to view the temporary macro challenges NIO faces</h2><p>I always ask myself two questions when looking at a company that appears to have been oversold like NIO, and they&#39;re these: has anything changed in the fundamentals of the sector, or has anything changed in the fundamentals of the company? The answer to both of these questions for NIO is no.</p><p>The EV sector is on a long-term growth trajectory, and NIO has positioned itself, through the increase of its production capacity and the introduction of new models, to take advantage of the EV trend.</p><p>Even with chips shortages, government shutdowns in China, temporary negative sentiment concerning China-based companies in general, the weakening global economy, delisting concerns in the U.S., and some inflationary pressure on commodities and chips, NIO is still managing to work its way out of short-term delivery challenges as demand for its vehicles continue to remain high.</p><p>Concerning things it has control over, it is raising prices and boosting production in order to mitigate increasing prices for commodities and chips. It has also listed on the Main Board of the Singapore Exchange to assuage concerns over possibly being delisted in the U.S.</p><p>It also continues to enlarge its charging and swapping network. At the end of the first quarter, it had over 960 battery swapping stations installed in 197 cities. It has &#34;829 supercharging stations and 1,140 destination chargers.&#34;</p><p>As for chip shortages, management stated in its latest earnings report that the chip shortage in June is related less to previous chip supply constraints and more to the boost in production capacity; for that reason the company believes chip supplies can be managed.</p><h2>Positive catalysts for NIO</h2><p>Among the positive catalysts for the company are the attractive valuation as a result of being oversold, increasing deliveries, expanding model portfolio, its boost in production, and the growth of its battery swap stations.</p><p>Initial response to the company&#39;s latest earnings report was a sell-off, as investors reacted to contracting margins coming from higher commodity and chip prices. But once the market absorbed the overall report and more numbers have come in, investors started looking at deliveries and the expected increase in production going forward.</p><p>For example, in May NIO boosted deliveries to 7,024, bring its total for the year to 37,866, up almost 12 percent year-over-year. Revenue jumped to $1.56 billion, a gain of 24 percent from 1Q 2021.</p><p>The point here is investors are starting to look at revenue and deliveries more than the past negative catalysts, as I mentioned earlier, have been already baked into the share price of NIO.</p><p>Other positive catalysts include the recent launch of its highly anticipated ES7. Deliveries for the crossover are scheduled for August 28th. China&#39;s Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) stated in a symposium that it is researching ways to boost its manufacturing sector as a result of the impact from COVID-19 restrictions. It is believed the EV sector in China will be a beneficiary of the new policies.</p><p>Last, China&#39;s State Council is expected to retain tax breaks already in place in order to stimulate demand for EV sales. Council members believe the tax cuts would generate $29.8 billion in consumer spending on the sector.</p><p>All of these things are tailwinds for NIO as it continues growth momentum.</p><h2>Probable taking of profits from NIO stock</h2><p>If we see any negative catalyst that spooks NIO shareholders, I believe we&#39;ll see a fairly quick sell-off in shares in order to protect profits. To get an idea of the type of numbers we&#39;re looking at in a sell-off, we&#39;ll look at the last couple of months when the share price of NIO corrected.</p><p>On May 4 traded at a little over $18.00 per share as a high, and by May 12 dropped to a 52-week low of $11.67. On May 20 it traded at a high of around $17.50, and by May 25 fell to $14.00 per share. More recently, on June 8 it traded at close to $20.45, and on June 13 dropped to a little under $16.00 per share. Since it dropped to about $16.00 per share on June 13, the price has soared to over $23.00 per share on June 23. Since May 12 the share price of NIO has about doubled.</p><p>My thought here is anything that causes the market to produce fear will result in some quick offloading of shares in NIO. If there is a negative catalyst combined with taking profits, the share price will take a significant hit, but I don&#39;t see it lingering for long. I believe NIO has turned the corner and any negative news will only have a temporal effect on the company. As mentioned above, everything negative has already been priced into the share price of NIO, and the only thing that will potentially disrupt its momentum is another prolonged shutdown of Shanghai in response to a COVID outbreak. But again, this does nothing to change the fundamentals of the EV market, neither the fundamentals of NIO as a company.</p><p>I&#39;m bringing this up because shareholders shouldn&#39;t be too concerned about this in any way. My point of view is NIO is in no danger in the short or long term, and the only thing that negative catalysts can do is extend the time it takes for the company to resume extraordinary growth.</p><h2>Conclusion</h2><p>Since I see NIO&#39;s share price being disproportionately punished in response to macroeconomic and geopolitical events and concerns, it is very likely to outperform its peers in the near term as it moves back into alignment with its strong fundamentals.</p><p>Further out, it is wisely building out production capacity as it introduces new models, positioning itself for a strong growth spurt as consumers start to spend again.</p><p>With supply chains improving and the company boosting the price of its models in response to increase in the price of commodities and chips, it is improving its margins and bottom line under difficult circumstances. That said, some of its pre-orders in the past will take a hit until the company works through its inventory and fills those orders.</p><p>My thesis is it&#39;s not a matter of if, but when NIO starts to regain strong growth momentum as it increases deliveries from strong consumer demand and larger production capacity.</p><p>As we&#39;ve seen after it hit its 52-week low on May 12, it has already doubled from that level. Once market sentiment improves even more, it&#39;s going to go a lot higher in the long haul.</p><p>The key to me is to ignore the volatility in the EV sector and NIO&#39;s share price, focusing rather on the way the company has positioned itself to grow long into the future.</p><p>There is no doubt in my mind that patient investors are going to be handsomely rewarded.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>NIO: A Volatile But Very Profitable Road Ahead</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNIO: A Volatile But Very Profitable Road Ahead\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-06-28 15:03 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4520117-nio-volatile-profitable-road-ahead><strong>Seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>There's a lot to like concerning NIO Inc. (NYSE:NIO) after it got hammered in the face of several negative catalysts that drove the price down to as low as $11.67 on May 12. Since then, it has doubled...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4520117-nio-volatile-profitable-road-ahead\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NIO.SI":"蔚来","NIO":"蔚来","09866":"蔚来-SW"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4520117-nio-volatile-profitable-road-ahead","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2246206338","content_text":"There's a lot to like concerning NIO Inc. (NYSE:NIO) after it got hammered in the face of several negative catalysts that drove the price down to as low as $11.67 on May 12. Since then, it has doubled as I write, making it a terrific performer for those that got in near the low.The quick jump in price does make me believe there will be an eventual sell-off as investors take some profits off the table, which could further drop if temporary bad news hits the stock near the time of a sell-off; the most likely being another shutdown in Shanghai.But even in that worst-case scenario, the downward pressure on the price of NIO would only be temporary because the narrative surrounding the company has been consistently improving over the last month or so.I believe the worst is behind NIO because the negative catalysts have already been baked into its share price. For that reason, it should enjoy steady and consistent growth going forward, although it will likely be a bumpy ride. Patient investors should generate some solid returns over the next couple of years and further out if there are no macro-economic or significant geopolitical events that impact the global economy and the EV sector.How to view the temporary macro challenges NIO facesI always ask myself two questions when looking at a company that appears to have been oversold like NIO, and they're these: has anything changed in the fundamentals of the sector, or has anything changed in the fundamentals of the company? The answer to both of these questions for NIO is no.The EV sector is on a long-term growth trajectory, and NIO has positioned itself, through the increase of its production capacity and the introduction of new models, to take advantage of the EV trend.Even with chips shortages, government shutdowns in China, temporary negative sentiment concerning China-based companies in general, the weakening global economy, delisting concerns in the U.S., and some inflationary pressure on commodities and chips, NIO is still managing to work its way out of short-term delivery challenges as demand for its vehicles continue to remain high.Concerning things it has control over, it is raising prices and boosting production in order to mitigate increasing prices for commodities and chips. It has also listed on the Main Board of the Singapore Exchange to assuage concerns over possibly being delisted in the U.S.It also continues to enlarge its charging and swapping network. At the end of the first quarter, it had over 960 battery swapping stations installed in 197 cities. It has \"829 supercharging stations and 1,140 destination chargers.\"As for chip shortages, management stated in its latest earnings report that the chip shortage in June is related less to previous chip supply constraints and more to the boost in production capacity; for that reason the company believes chip supplies can be managed.Positive catalysts for NIOAmong the positive catalysts for the company are the attractive valuation as a result of being oversold, increasing deliveries, expanding model portfolio, its boost in production, and the growth of its battery swap stations.Initial response to the company's latest earnings report was a sell-off, as investors reacted to contracting margins coming from higher commodity and chip prices. But once the market absorbed the overall report and more numbers have come in, investors started looking at deliveries and the expected increase in production going forward.For example, in May NIO boosted deliveries to 7,024, bring its total for the year to 37,866, up almost 12 percent year-over-year. Revenue jumped to $1.56 billion, a gain of 24 percent from 1Q 2021.The point here is investors are starting to look at revenue and deliveries more than the past negative catalysts, as I mentioned earlier, have been already baked into the share price of NIO.Other positive catalysts include the recent launch of its highly anticipated ES7. Deliveries for the crossover are scheduled for August 28th. China's Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) stated in a symposium that it is researching ways to boost its manufacturing sector as a result of the impact from COVID-19 restrictions. It is believed the EV sector in China will be a beneficiary of the new policies.Last, China's State Council is expected to retain tax breaks already in place in order to stimulate demand for EV sales. Council members believe the tax cuts would generate $29.8 billion in consumer spending on the sector.All of these things are tailwinds for NIO as it continues growth momentum.Probable taking of profits from NIO stockIf we see any negative catalyst that spooks NIO shareholders, I believe we'll see a fairly quick sell-off in shares in order to protect profits. To get an idea of the type of numbers we're looking at in a sell-off, we'll look at the last couple of months when the share price of NIO corrected.On May 4 traded at a little over $18.00 per share as a high, and by May 12 dropped to a 52-week low of $11.67. On May 20 it traded at a high of around $17.50, and by May 25 fell to $14.00 per share. More recently, on June 8 it traded at close to $20.45, and on June 13 dropped to a little under $16.00 per share. Since it dropped to about $16.00 per share on June 13, the price has soared to over $23.00 per share on June 23. Since May 12 the share price of NIO has about doubled.My thought here is anything that causes the market to produce fear will result in some quick offloading of shares in NIO. If there is a negative catalyst combined with taking profits, the share price will take a significant hit, but I don't see it lingering for long. I believe NIO has turned the corner and any negative news will only have a temporal effect on the company. As mentioned above, everything negative has already been priced into the share price of NIO, and the only thing that will potentially disrupt its momentum is another prolonged shutdown of Shanghai in response to a COVID outbreak. But again, this does nothing to change the fundamentals of the EV market, neither the fundamentals of NIO as a company.I'm bringing this up because shareholders shouldn't be too concerned about this in any way. My point of view is NIO is in no danger in the short or long term, and the only thing that negative catalysts can do is extend the time it takes for the company to resume extraordinary growth.ConclusionSince I see NIO's share price being disproportionately punished in response to macroeconomic and geopolitical events and concerns, it is very likely to outperform its peers in the near term as it moves back into alignment with its strong fundamentals.Further out, it is wisely building out production capacity as it introduces new models, positioning itself for a strong growth spurt as consumers start to spend again.With supply chains improving and the company boosting the price of its models in response to increase in the price of commodities and chips, it is improving its margins and bottom line under difficult circumstances. That said, some of its pre-orders in the past will take a hit until the company works through its inventory and fills those orders.My thesis is it's not a matter of if, but when NIO starts to regain strong growth momentum as it increases deliveries from strong consumer demand and larger production capacity.As we've seen after it hit its 52-week low on May 12, it has already doubled from that level. Once market sentiment improves even more, it's going to go a lot higher in the long haul.The key to me is to ignore the volatility in the EV sector and NIO's share price, focusing rather on the way the company has positioned itself to grow long into the future.There is no doubt in my mind that patient investors are going to be handsomely 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"images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9963678999","repostId":"1159349040","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3309,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9907919216,"gmtCreate":1660124839337,"gmtModify":1703478163905,"author":{"id":"4098882746619960","authorId":"4098882746619960","name":"Elmo.ek","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4098882746619960","idStr":"4098882746619960"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Good write up","listText":"Good write up","text":"Good write up","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9907919216","repostId":"1157330995","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1157330995","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1660145407,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1157330995?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-08-10 23:30","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla: The EV Tax Credit Is A Huge Catalyst","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1157330995","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryRecently the U.S. Senate Passed the Inflation Reduction Act.The act removes the 200,000 unit ","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><b>Summary</b></p><ul><li>Recently the U.S. Senate Passed the Inflation Reduction Act.</li><li>The act removes the 200,000 unit sales cap for electric vehicle &#34;EV&#34; tax credits.</li><li>The act still has to be passed by the House of Representatives to become law.</li><li>If it passes, it will be a huge catalyst for Tesla, which will once again be eligible for Federal tax credits.</li><li>Many Tesla models meet the Act&#39;s strict U.S. sourcing requirements; most competitors&#39; offerings don&#39;t.</li></ul><p>This past Sunday, the U.S. Senate passed the Inflation Reduction Act, a spending bill containing a variety of climate change related measures. Among the most discussed measures in the bill is a change to the electric vehicle (“EV”)tax credit. Under previous rules, a company would lose its eligibility for EV credits after selling its 200,000th car. Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) crossed the 200,000 car threshold in 2018, and its tax credits were phased out over three years. By early 2022, Teslas were no longer eligible for the tax credit.</p><p>With the passage of the Inflation Reduction Act, that has changed. The current version of the act, which will be debated by the House of Representatives this week, removes the 200,000 car limit for credit eligibility. Now, buyers of some Tesla models can enjoy the full $7,500 credit toward the purchase of their vehicles. There are some limits to this – the credit applies to sedans up to $55,000 and SUVs up to $80,000– but many Teslas will be eligible. The EV tax credit notably requires that the vehicle&#39;s battery be40% sourced from the U.S. or allies- Tesla&#39;s Model S meets this standard, most competitors&#39; offerings don&#39;t.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c4475ae62d8d2254828c81b2e64dc19b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"214\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Tesla Model 3 meets the standard, most don&#39;t(roadandtrack.com)</p><p>This is great news for a company that some say was built on government subsidies. Many of Elon Musk’s critics allege that Tesla has been taking enormous amounts of government assistance over the years. When we dig into the details, we see that Tesla did benefit from the EV tax credit in its early days. Furthermore, it benefits from similar credits in other countries today. The point about Tesla’s reliance on tax breaks can be overstated, but there’s no doubt that when a consumer gets a tax break for buying an EV, they’re more likely to buy one.</p><p>Given that Tesla has the most brand awareness of all the major EV companies, it benefits from consumers being incentivized to buy EVs. According to a 2018 Energy Policy article, every $1,000 in EV credits leads to a 2.6% increase in EV sales. With Tesla having a large share of the U.S. EV market, it’s likely to gain revenue from the revamped tax credit. This credit could therefore serve as a catalyst improving Tesla’s business performance in the second half. However, as I’ll demonstrate shortly, this catalyst alone doesn’t automatically make the stock a great value.</p><p><b>How the EV Tax Credit Works</b></p><p>To understand how the revamped EV tax credit helps Tesla, we need to know how the credit works. The EV tax credit has been around in some form since 2009, having been announced in 2008’s Energy Improvement and Extension Act. The way credit works has changed since it was first introduced.</p><p>The way the credit originally worked was like this:</p><p>Every electric vehicle got a base credit of $2,500. A person buying any EV would get $2,500 plus an extra $417 per kilowatt-hour of battery capacity. For passenger cars, this increase in credits continued up until $7,500 worth of tax credits were earned. Any American who bought an EV would get to claim this credit on their taxes and deduct the appropriate percentage of $7,500 from their income.</p><p>The EV tax credit also had a cap on how many cars a manufacturer could sell and still be eligible for the credit. Once a manufacturer surpassed 200,000 cars sold in the United States, their tax credits would be phased out over three years. Tesla hit the 200,000 car milestone in 2008. Its tax credits were phased out on the schedule shown below:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/61a30d4a86130928bc8262cb7df92850\" tg-width=\"872\" tg-height=\"298\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Tesla&#39;s EV credit phase out(Tesla)</p><p>As the table above shows, all of the credits on Tesla models S, X and 3 were phased out by the end of 2019. This was where things stood for most of the last two years: Teslas weren’t eligible for the credit. Technically, this is still the case, but the Inflation Reduction Act looks quite likely to pass. The Act passed 51-50 in the Senate, and is heading to the House of Representatives for review this week. If it passes, then Teslas will be eligible for the EV tax credit once more. The version of the Act that passed in the Senate puts no cap on how many EVs a manufacturer can sell, so not only will Tesla buyers get the credit again, they’ll continue to get it indefinitely. To top it off: there are Tesla models that meet the act&#39;s strict sourcing requirements, while many competitors&#39; offerings don&#39;t make the grade.</p><p><b>Business Implications</b></p><p>Tesla regaining the EV tax credit has important business implications. Academic research suggests that every $1,000 worth of EV tax credits drives a2.6% increase in EV sales. As an example, if we have a country where 100,000 EVs are being sold per year, then adding a $1,000 credit increases sales to 102,600. The higher the dollar value of the credit, the more the sales increase. The research I’m citing doesn’t say whether the effect increases linearly or compounds with the size of the credit. If the effect is linear, then a $7,500 credit would increase the number of vehicles sold by 19,500. If it compounds, then it adds 21,228 extra sales. Either way, we should see a significant boost in sales from a $7,500 tax credit.</p><p>Furthermore, we would expect Tesla to gain from this disproportionately. Many of Tesla’s competitors haven’t shipped 200,000 cars yet, but Tesla has.<b>Lucid</b>(LCID) is aiming for14,000 cumulative deliveries by year’s end, <b>Ford</b>(F) has sold 37,000 or so, <b>Rivian</b>(RIVN) has only delivered a handful of cars to employees. None of these companies are anywhere near the 200,000 deliveries threshold, so they’re getting the credit already. Tesla, on the other hand, passed the threshold in 2018, so it will be eligible for the credit again. Therefore, we’d expect the Inflation Reduction Act to boost Tesla’s sales while leaving its competitors’ sales unchanged.</p><p><b>Tesla’s Valuation</b></p><p>Valuing a company like Tesla is always tough. The company has historically had high growth, which makes estimating its future cash flows difficult. Nevertheless, we can safely assume that, with its tax credits back, Tesla will grow faster than it would have without them. So, we can start by making a projection of Tesla’s revenue and build a discounted cash flow model from there.</p><p>According to Seeking Alpha Quant, Tesla’s five year CAGR revenue growth rate is 46%. The rate in the most recent quarter was 43%. We have indications that the growth rate will slow down. First, the most recent quarterly growth rate is lower than the five year rate. Second, the five year growth rate is only half the 10 year growth rate. It wouldn’t be conservative to assume that TSLA can keep up 43% growth forever. So, I’ll use Valuates Report’s 18.2% CAGR EV industry forecast as my revenue growth estimate. However, to account for the bullish impact of the EV tax credits Tesla is about to get, I’ll add an extra 19.5% on to the first year’s growth. So the first year will see 41.2% growth (1.182 times 1.195), followed by 18.2% growth thereafter. Tesla’s revenue for the trailing 12 month period is $67.1 billion, so we get:</p><ul><li><p>Base year: $67.1B.</p></li><li><p>Year 1: $94.74B.</p></li><li><p>Year 2: $112B.</p></li><li><p>Year 3: $132B.</p></li><li><p>Year 4: $156B.</p></li><li><p>Year 5: $185B.</p></li></ul><p>This gives us an overall CAGR growth rate of 22%. With that established, we can look at costs. Tesla had $48 billion in cost of goods sold (“COGS”) in the last 12 months. COGS scales up directly with revenue so I’ll assume that this portion of costs rises at 22%. Tesla’s operating costs have risen at 20% CAGR over the last five years, so I’ll assume they continue growing at that rate. Tesla’s tax rate in the trailing 12 month period was 10%, but I’ll up that to 15% to account for the new minimum tax included in the Inflation Reduction Act. Finally, I’ll add in non-cash costs at 6% of revenue (the percentage in the trailing 12 month period) to get a model that approximates cash from operations (“CFO”).</p><table><tbody><tr><td><p>Year 1</p></td><td><p>Year 2</p></td><td><p>Year 3</p></td><td><p>Year 4</p></td><td><p>Year 5</p></td></tr><tr><td><p>Revenue</p></td><td><p>$94.74B</p></td><td><p>$112B</p></td><td><p>$132B</p></td><td><p>$156B</p></td><td><p>$185B</p></td></tr><tr><td><p>COGS</p></td><td><p>$69B</p></td><td><p>$81.6B</p></td><td><p>$96.5B</p></td><td><p>$114B</p></td><td><p>$135B</p></td></tr><tr><td><p>Operating costs</p></td><td><p>$8.76B</p></td><td><p>$10.5B</p></td><td><p>$12.6B</p></td><td><p>$15B</p></td><td><p>$18B</p></td></tr><tr><td><p>EBIT</p></td><td><p>$16.98</p></td><td><p>$19.9B</p></td><td><p>$22.9B</p></td><td><p>$27B</p></td><td><p>$32B</p></td></tr><tr><td><p>After tax</p></td><td><p>$14.43B</p></td><td><p>$16.9B</p></td><td><p>$19.46B</p></td><td><p>$22.95B</p></td><td><p>$27.2B</p></td></tr><tr><td><p>Non-cash costs (added back in)</p></td><td><p>$5.7B</p></td><td><p>$6.72B</p></td><td><p>$7.9B</p></td><td><p>$9.36B</p></td><td><p>$11.1B</p></td></tr><tr><td><p>CFO</p></td><td><p>$20.13B</p></td><td><p>$23.62B</p></td><td><p>$27.36B</p></td><td><p>$32.31B</p></td><td><p>$38.3B</p></td></tr></tbody></table><p>Tesla has 1.155 billion shares outstanding, so these CFO figures on a per share basis add up to:</p><ul><li><p>TTM: $12.18.</p></li><li><p>Year 1: $17.42.</p></li><li><p>Year 2: $20.45</p></li><li><p>Year 3: $23.68.</p></li><li><p>Year 4: $27.97.</p></li><li><p>Year 5: $33.16.</p></li></ul><p>So, we get a 22% growth rate in cash flows per share. Using 8% as the discount rate and assuming a 5% perpetual growth rate after five years, we get a fair value of $879. This is only a 3.4% upside to the price at the time of writing ($850), so I conclude that Tesla is fully valued.</p><p><b>The Big Risk to Watch Out For</b></p><p>As I’ve shown in this article, Tesla’s EV tax credit could create a sales spike in the year ahead that gives the stock slight upside to today’s price. Without the sales spike caused by tax credits, my model would have yielded about $825, suggesting slight overvaluation. This stock is trading very close to conservative estimates of fair value, even when you account for the EV tax credit causing sales to spike. The credit is a catalyst, but not a big one, adding only a very slight amount of upside.</p><p>For this reason, Tesla investors are going to want to be on the lookout for one big risk:</p><p><i>Revenue deceleration.</i></p><p>Most industry forecasts have EVs growing at 18 to 22% for the next five years. If Tesla simply grows at that rate then its stock is not worth what it trades for today. You have to assume at least one more year of 40%+ growth to get an intrinsic value estimate for this stock that exceeds its current value. It’s so expensive already that if it grows at 18% for the next five years–a fantastic growth rate in absolute terms–it’s overvalued. The EV tax credit, or a similar catalyst, is needed for the stock to have just a little upside.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla: The EV Tax Credit Is A Huge Catalyst</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla: The EV Tax Credit Is A Huge Catalyst\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-08-10 23:30 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4532368-tesla-stock-ev-tax-credit-huge-catalyst?source=content_type%3Areact%7Cfirst_level_url%3Ahome%7Csection%3Aportfolio%7Csection_asset%3Aheadlines%7Cline%3A2><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryRecently the U.S. Senate Passed the Inflation Reduction Act.The act removes the 200,000 unit sales cap for electric vehicle \"EV\" tax credits.The act still has to be passed by the House of ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4532368-tesla-stock-ev-tax-credit-huge-catalyst?source=content_type%3Areact%7Cfirst_level_url%3Ahome%7Csection%3Aportfolio%7Csection_asset%3Aheadlines%7Cline%3A2\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4532368-tesla-stock-ev-tax-credit-huge-catalyst?source=content_type%3Areact%7Cfirst_level_url%3Ahome%7Csection%3Aportfolio%7Csection_asset%3Aheadlines%7Cline%3A2","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1157330995","content_text":"SummaryRecently the U.S. Senate Passed the Inflation Reduction Act.The act removes the 200,000 unit sales cap for electric vehicle \"EV\" tax credits.The act still has to be passed by the House of Representatives to become law.If it passes, it will be a huge catalyst for Tesla, which will once again be eligible for Federal tax credits.Many Tesla models meet the Act's strict U.S. sourcing requirements; most competitors' offerings don't.This past Sunday, the U.S. Senate passed the Inflation Reduction Act, a spending bill containing a variety of climate change related measures. Among the most discussed measures in the bill is a change to the electric vehicle (“EV”)tax credit. Under previous rules, a company would lose its eligibility for EV credits after selling its 200,000th car. Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) crossed the 200,000 car threshold in 2018, and its tax credits were phased out over three years. By early 2022, Teslas were no longer eligible for the tax credit.With the passage of the Inflation Reduction Act, that has changed. The current version of the act, which will be debated by the House of Representatives this week, removes the 200,000 car limit for credit eligibility. Now, buyers of some Tesla models can enjoy the full $7,500 credit toward the purchase of their vehicles. There are some limits to this – the credit applies to sedans up to $55,000 and SUVs up to $80,000– but many Teslas will be eligible. The EV tax credit notably requires that the vehicle's battery be40% sourced from the U.S. or allies- Tesla's Model S meets this standard, most competitors' offerings don't.Tesla Model 3 meets the standard, most don't(roadandtrack.com)This is great news for a company that some say was built on government subsidies. Many of Elon Musk’s critics allege that Tesla has been taking enormous amounts of government assistance over the years. When we dig into the details, we see that Tesla did benefit from the EV tax credit in its early days. Furthermore, it benefits from similar credits in other countries today. The point about Tesla’s reliance on tax breaks can be overstated, but there’s no doubt that when a consumer gets a tax break for buying an EV, they’re more likely to buy one.Given that Tesla has the most brand awareness of all the major EV companies, it benefits from consumers being incentivized to buy EVs. According to a 2018 Energy Policy article, every $1,000 in EV credits leads to a 2.6% increase in EV sales. With Tesla having a large share of the U.S. EV market, it’s likely to gain revenue from the revamped tax credit. This credit could therefore serve as a catalyst improving Tesla’s business performance in the second half. However, as I’ll demonstrate shortly, this catalyst alone doesn’t automatically make the stock a great value.How the EV Tax Credit WorksTo understand how the revamped EV tax credit helps Tesla, we need to know how the credit works. The EV tax credit has been around in some form since 2009, having been announced in 2008’s Energy Improvement and Extension Act. The way credit works has changed since it was first introduced.The way the credit originally worked was like this:Every electric vehicle got a base credit of $2,500. A person buying any EV would get $2,500 plus an extra $417 per kilowatt-hour of battery capacity. For passenger cars, this increase in credits continued up until $7,500 worth of tax credits were earned. Any American who bought an EV would get to claim this credit on their taxes and deduct the appropriate percentage of $7,500 from their income.The EV tax credit also had a cap on how many cars a manufacturer could sell and still be eligible for the credit. Once a manufacturer surpassed 200,000 cars sold in the United States, their tax credits would be phased out over three years. Tesla hit the 200,000 car milestone in 2008. Its tax credits were phased out on the schedule shown below:Tesla's EV credit phase out(Tesla)As the table above shows, all of the credits on Tesla models S, X and 3 were phased out by the end of 2019. This was where things stood for most of the last two years: Teslas weren’t eligible for the credit. Technically, this is still the case, but the Inflation Reduction Act looks quite likely to pass. The Act passed 51-50 in the Senate, and is heading to the House of Representatives for review this week. If it passes, then Teslas will be eligible for the EV tax credit once more. The version of the Act that passed in the Senate puts no cap on how many EVs a manufacturer can sell, so not only will Tesla buyers get the credit again, they’ll continue to get it indefinitely. To top it off: there are Tesla models that meet the act's strict sourcing requirements, while many competitors' offerings don't make the grade.Business ImplicationsTesla regaining the EV tax credit has important business implications. Academic research suggests that every $1,000 worth of EV tax credits drives a2.6% increase in EV sales. As an example, if we have a country where 100,000 EVs are being sold per year, then adding a $1,000 credit increases sales to 102,600. The higher the dollar value of the credit, the more the sales increase. The research I’m citing doesn’t say whether the effect increases linearly or compounds with the size of the credit. If the effect is linear, then a $7,500 credit would increase the number of vehicles sold by 19,500. If it compounds, then it adds 21,228 extra sales. Either way, we should see a significant boost in sales from a $7,500 tax credit.Furthermore, we would expect Tesla to gain from this disproportionately. Many of Tesla’s competitors haven’t shipped 200,000 cars yet, but Tesla has.Lucid(LCID) is aiming for14,000 cumulative deliveries by year’s end, Ford(F) has sold 37,000 or so, Rivian(RIVN) has only delivered a handful of cars to employees. None of these companies are anywhere near the 200,000 deliveries threshold, so they’re getting the credit already. Tesla, on the other hand, passed the threshold in 2018, so it will be eligible for the credit again. Therefore, we’d expect the Inflation Reduction Act to boost Tesla’s sales while leaving its competitors’ sales unchanged.Tesla’s ValuationValuing a company like Tesla is always tough. The company has historically had high growth, which makes estimating its future cash flows difficult. Nevertheless, we can safely assume that, with its tax credits back, Tesla will grow faster than it would have without them. So, we can start by making a projection of Tesla’s revenue and build a discounted cash flow model from there.According to Seeking Alpha Quant, Tesla’s five year CAGR revenue growth rate is 46%. The rate in the most recent quarter was 43%. We have indications that the growth rate will slow down. First, the most recent quarterly growth rate is lower than the five year rate. Second, the five year growth rate is only half the 10 year growth rate. It wouldn’t be conservative to assume that TSLA can keep up 43% growth forever. So, I’ll use Valuates Report’s 18.2% CAGR EV industry forecast as my revenue growth estimate. However, to account for the bullish impact of the EV tax credits Tesla is about to get, I’ll add an extra 19.5% on to the first year’s growth. So the first year will see 41.2% growth (1.182 times 1.195), followed by 18.2% growth thereafter. Tesla’s revenue for the trailing 12 month period is $67.1 billion, so we get:Base year: $67.1B.Year 1: $94.74B.Year 2: $112B.Year 3: $132B.Year 4: $156B.Year 5: $185B.This gives us an overall CAGR growth rate of 22%. With that established, we can look at costs. Tesla had $48 billion in cost of goods sold (“COGS”) in the last 12 months. COGS scales up directly with revenue so I’ll assume that this portion of costs rises at 22%. Tesla’s operating costs have risen at 20% CAGR over the last five years, so I’ll assume they continue growing at that rate. Tesla’s tax rate in the trailing 12 month period was 10%, but I’ll up that to 15% to account for the new minimum tax included in the Inflation Reduction Act. Finally, I’ll add in non-cash costs at 6% of revenue (the percentage in the trailing 12 month period) to get a model that approximates cash from operations (“CFO”).Year 1Year 2Year 3Year 4Year 5Revenue$94.74B$112B$132B$156B$185BCOGS$69B$81.6B$96.5B$114B$135BOperating costs$8.76B$10.5B$12.6B$15B$18BEBIT$16.98$19.9B$22.9B$27B$32BAfter tax$14.43B$16.9B$19.46B$22.95B$27.2BNon-cash costs (added back in)$5.7B$6.72B$7.9B$9.36B$11.1BCFO$20.13B$23.62B$27.36B$32.31B$38.3BTesla has 1.155 billion shares outstanding, so these CFO figures on a per share basis add up to:TTM: $12.18.Year 1: $17.42.Year 2: $20.45Year 3: $23.68.Year 4: $27.97.Year 5: $33.16.So, we get a 22% growth rate in cash flows per share. Using 8% as the discount rate and assuming a 5% perpetual growth rate after five years, we get a fair value of $879. This is only a 3.4% upside to the price at the time of writing ($850), so I conclude that Tesla is fully valued.The Big Risk to Watch Out ForAs I’ve shown in this article, Tesla’s EV tax credit could create a sales spike in the year ahead that gives the stock slight upside to today’s price. Without the sales spike caused by tax credits, my model would have yielded about $825, suggesting slight overvaluation. This stock is trading very close to conservative estimates of fair value, even when you account for the EV tax credit causing sales to spike. The credit is a catalyst, but not a big one, adding only a very slight amount of upside.For this reason, Tesla investors are going to want to be on the lookout for one big risk:Revenue deceleration.Most industry forecasts have EVs growing at 18 to 22% for the next five years. If Tesla simply grows at that rate then its stock is not worth what it trades for today. You have to assume at least one more year of 40%+ growth to get an intrinsic value estimate for this stock that exceeds its current value. It’s so expensive already that if it grows at 18% for the next five years–a fantastic growth rate in absolute terms–it’s overvalued. The EV tax credit, or a similar catalyst, is needed for the stock to have just a little upside.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1233,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9075378519,"gmtCreate":1658154833731,"gmtModify":1676536113649,"author":{"id":"4098882746619960","authorId":"4098882746619960","name":"Elmo.ek","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4098882746619960","idStr":"4098882746619960"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Hope is a good news&nbsp;","listText":"Hope is a good news&nbsp;","text":"Hope is a good news","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9075378519","repostId":"1165817190","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1165817190","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1658153734,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1165817190?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-07-18 22:15","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Grab Shares Jumped 10% in Morning Trading","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1165817190","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Grab shares jumped 10% in morning trading after JPMorgan analyst Ranjan Sharma upgraded Grab Holding","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Grab shares jumped 10% in morning trading after JPMorgan analyst Ranjan Sharma upgraded Grab Holdings to Overweight from Neutral with a $3 price target.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d18e5315f88e0fee548e9af571cb956d\" tg-width=\"856\" tg-height=\"621\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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