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Sinolink Securities: After the highest single-year increase in the past 46 years, how do you view the trend of gold?

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view the trend of gold?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2600017238","media":"智通财经","summary":"国金证券主要观点如下：以史为鉴，当前黄金“超涨”了吗?即便已经连续三年显著增持，目前全球央行对黄金仍然偏低配。国金证券认为，美元信用褪色的贬值交易下，黄金作为稀缺的无主权信用背书的货币资产，价值重估难言结束，金价已经“失锚”。当金价技术性回调时，央行和主权基金的购金预期将对回调空间和持续性产生约束。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600109\">Sinolink Securities</a>According to a research report released, although the pace of central bank gold purchases will slow down in 2025, the influx of speculative funds will push gold prices higher. The short-term correction is mainly driven by emotional and technical factors, while the core supporting logic of global stagflation, order chaos, and monetization of the US deficit remains unchanged. Looking forward to 2026, when the market's pricing logic of \"AI unknown\" has not changed, the lack of order is still a favorable environment for gold. When the AI bubble and gold form a \"dumbbell\", gold, as the insurance of AI positions, has realized the value of the highlight moment. As a narrative asset that has both \"gold-like\" attributes and is related to AI power, silver has higher flexibility in stages. But once the AI narrative becomes clear, the highlight moment of gold may come to an end, and the silver narrative of \"benefiting from both ends\" may also return to rationality.</p><p>Sinolink Securities's main views are as follows:</p><p><strong>Taking history as a mirror, is gold \"overrising\" at present?</strong></p><p><strong>1. Looking back at the history of gold prices, the stages with strong reference are World War II and the 1970s</strong></p><p>After the stock market crash in 1929, the United States fell into the Great Depression, and the people's run on gold brought the banking system to the brink of collapse. Under the gold standard, dollar issuance must be linked to gold reserves, which limits the government's ability to solve problems by issuing currency, and banks collapse in large numbers.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/603883\">Common people</a>Large unemployment. Therefore, after Roosevelt's New Deal in 1933, it was announced that all banks in the country must stop gold trading and nationalize gold.</p><p>After the outbreak of World War II, the United States officially entered the war, the fiscal deficit ratio of the United States once rose to 27%, and the Federal Reserve stabilized the latter's market interest rate by purchasing unlimited Treasury bills. As a result of this measure, from August 1939 to August 1948, the aggregate monetary base of the United States increased by 149%. Meanwhile, dollar-denominated gold rose 123% over the same period.</p><p>During the Bretton Woods system, the price of gold was fixed at $35/oz. However, after World War II, the U.S. economy took off, and international trade was settled in U.S. dollars. Due to the continuous expansion of the economy, there were more and more U.S. dollars, which led to the rapid increase of inflation in the United States, and the balance of payments continued to be in deficit, which had to rely on the issuance of currency to make up for it. As a result, inflation further intensified, and the credit of the U.S. dollar once faced the collapse.</p><p>Since the 1970s, the world has started to run on gold, and the gold reserves of the United States have decreased. The United States is worried that it will not be able to continue to support the exchange commitment between the US dollar and gold. The Brinton Woods system collapsed, and the price of gold once again changed from a fixed price to a floating price. From 1973 to 1980, gold soared from $35 to $850, a 24-fold increase. It wasn't until the violent Volcker-era rate hike in 1980 that gold really peaked.</p><p><strong>2. In the first decade of the 21st century, gold ushered in a new round of bull market</strong></p><p>Behind it is the catalysis of a series of events such as the \"911\" incident, inflation after the rapid economic development of the United States, the global financial crisis, and the European debt crisis. With the suppression of the European debt crisis and the gradual recovery of the U.S. economy, gold fell into a five-year bear market after 2011.</p><p>In the 17 years since the outbreak of the financial crisis, the average annual federal fiscal deficit ratio in the United States has reached 6.3%. Even excluding 2020 and 2021 in the epidemic environment, the average deficit ratio is as high as 5.4%, much higher than the 1950s to before the financial crisis. The average level is 1.7%, and the economic growth model with fiscal overdraft as the core driving force is the core reason for the continued depreciation of the US dollar relative to gold. After the Russia-Ukraine crisis in 2022, the technical default of the United States on Russia's US $300 billion foreign reserves marks a new stage of decline in the credit and influence of the US dollar. Represented by the People's Bank of China, it has reduced its holdings of US debt while hoarding gold substantially.</p><p><strong>3. There is no significant sign of overrising in this round of gold bull market</strong></p><p>If the United States started deficit monetization in 2008 as a starting point, the price of gold has increased 5.7 times so far; If we take the technical default of the United States on Russia's foreign exchange reserves in 2022 as a starting point, the price of gold has increased 2.4 times so far. Compared with the 24-fold increase in gold prices in the 1970s, there is no sign of significant overrise in this round of gold bull market.</p><p>The opposite of gold is the credit of the US dollar. In the long run, the rising trend of gold prices is positively correlated with the size of US debt. According to the forecast of the U.S. Congressional Budget Office (CBO), by 2035, the ratio of the total U.S. federal debt held by the public to U.S. GDP will rise from 97.8% in 2025 to 118.5%, exceeding the high point at the end of World War II. Against this background, there is still room for imagination in the gold bull market. Unless in this process, AI technology can bring about an overall increase in productivity in various industries from the organizational and structural levels, and lead the United States out of stagflation and improve economic and fiscal efficiency, then it is a signal of the end of the gold bull market.</p><p><strong>From the financial level, is the process of increasing gold purchases by the central bank and the market coming to an end?</strong></p><p><strong>1. Central bank gold purchases: the pace slows down rather than ends</strong></p><p>Against the background of global political multipolarization, the decline of the geopolitical influence of the United States, and the increasing debt vigilance of developed economies such as the United States and Europe, geopolitical powers (China, Russia, India, etc.), traditional neutral countries (Singapore, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, etc.) and Russia-Ukraine frontier countries (Poland, Hungary, etc.) have gradually increased their gold reserves in the past three years. The proportion of \"central bank gold purchases\" in gold investment demand once rose from 15% in the first quarter of 2022 to a high of 54% in the fourth quarter of 2024.</p><p>Even though it has significantly increased its holdings for three consecutive years, global central banks are still underweighting gold. According to World Bank data, gold reserves will account for about 22% of global central bank reserves in 2024, an increase of 7 percentage points from three years ago, but there is still a gap compared with important geopolitical turning points in history. This value was 29% at the end of the Cold War in 1990 and 58% at the end of the Great Stagflation in 1980. If the proportion of gold reserves held by the central bank returns to the level of 1990, there is still room for improvement of 7%, corresponding to about 3,400 tons of gold purchase demand.</p><p>According to the results of the World Gold Council's survey of central bank gold reserves in 2025, 76% of the central banks surveyed said that the proportion of gold reserves will continue to \"moderately rise\" in the next five years (46% in 2022, 62% in 2023, 69% in 2024), the performance of gold in times of crisis, portfolio diversification, and the demand to hedge against inflation are the core reasons for them to increase their holdings of gold.</p><p>Sinolink Securities believes that under the depreciation transaction of the fading credit of the US dollar, the revaluation of gold, as a scarce monetary asset without sovereign credit endorsement, is hard to end, and the price of gold has \"lost its anchor\". During this process, the central bank's demand for gold purchases has not weakened. Although the amount of gold purchases in the short term is not as frenzied as market funds, it will become an important gold price chassis force. When the gold price makes a technical correction, the gold purchase expectation of the central bank and sovereign funds will restrict the space and sustainability of the correction.</p><p><strong>2. Market funds: The demand for combination optimization and the demand for hedging AI narrative are still there</strong></p><p>For investment institutions, the long-term value of gold lies in its low pullback/retracement and low correlation with traditional stock and bond assets. It is an indispensable hedging tool in large asset allocation portfolios.</p><p>Although major asset allocation portfolios such as risk parity strategy portfolio and Markowitz-mean variance strategy portfolio already have certain exposure to gold, there are still some non-institutional investors and traditional stock-bond strategy portfolios that have not been involved in gold, because in the past For a long time, stock-bond hedging was effective, and bonds were enough to disperse the volatility risk of U.S. stocks. In the 40 years before 2022, the world as a whole has experienced a dividend era of falling interest rates and cooperation among superpowers. Especially after 2008, major central banks such as the United States, Europe, and Japan have maintained extremely loose monetary policies for many years. But since 2022, factors such as the global pandemic, Western populist politics, interest rate and inflation environment have caused great changes in global financial markets.</p><p>A persistent high inflationary environment will largely undermine the value of government bonds as a portfolio diversification tool. Nearly 50 years of historical experience shows that when the core inflation level in the United States is lower than 2.5%, the correlation between U.S. stocks and U.S. bonds is generally negative (that is, simultaneous allocation of stocks and bonds can effectively diversify risks), but when the core inflation is higher At 2.5%, this stock-bond hedge is on the verge of failure. This year, the positive correlation between U.S. stocks and bonds is still near the high level in the past 27 years, highlighting the necessity of alternative assets as diversified allocation tools. Given its historically low correlation with many traditional asset classes, a strategic allocation to gold can help improve the yield-risk price-performance ratio of various portfolios across a variety of market cycles. Global gold ETF holdings have increased by 20% in the past year, and strong investment demand may not only price in expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, but also signal that traditional portfolio strategies are changing.</p><p>For trading funds, the demand for gold holdings still exists. On the one hand, the Fed's interest rate cut cycle has not yet finished, and the market pricing will still cut interest rates 2-3 times next year. The expectation of a downward trend in real interest rates may drive market funds represented by gold ETFs to buy. On the other hand, the dumbbell strategy of \"long AI + long gold\" is a two-end bet on the next stage of the U.S. national fortune. When the AI bubble reaches the second half, the \"hedging\" attribute of gold is expected to increase.</p><p><strong>Gold: Current Pricing Perspective of Monetary Credit VS Price Comparison Perspective with U.S. Financial Assets</strong></p><p>Under the monetary credit system, if the global US dollar currency/global gold central bank reserves are used as the representative of global US dollar gold, then the US dollar credit implied by the current gold pricing of about US $4,000 an ounce is already lower than that of the Bretton Woods system in 1971. When the system collapsed. But if we look at it from another perspective, compared with financial assets in the United States, the current market value of gold/market value of stocks and bonds in the United States is just at a historical low near 1971.</p><p><strong>Risk warning:</strong>Data availability is limited, and there is a lag in public data; The pace of AI commercialization is accelerating, recharging US dollar credit; The understanding of the reconstruction of the international order is biased.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"stock_zhitongcaijing","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Sinolink Securities: After the highest single-year increase in the past 46 years, how do you view the trend of gold?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSinolink Securities: After the highest single-year increase in the past 46 years, how do you view the trend of gold?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">智通财经</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2026-01-04 07:16</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600109\">Sinolink Securities</a>According to a research report released, although the pace of central bank gold purchases will slow down in 2025, the influx of speculative funds will push gold prices higher. The short-term correction is mainly driven by emotional and technical factors, while the core supporting logic of global stagflation, order chaos, and monetization of the US deficit remains unchanged. Looking forward to 2026, when the market's pricing logic of \"AI unknown\" has not changed, the lack of order is still a favorable environment for gold. When the AI bubble and gold form a \"dumbbell\", gold, as the insurance of AI positions, has realized the value of the highlight moment. As a narrative asset that has both \"gold-like\" attributes and is related to AI power, silver has higher flexibility in stages. But once the AI narrative becomes clear, the highlight moment of gold may come to an end, and the silver narrative of \"benefiting from both ends\" may also return to rationality.</p><p>Sinolink Securities's main views are as follows:</p><p><strong>Taking history as a mirror, is gold \"overrising\" at present?</strong></p><p><strong>1. Looking back at the history of gold prices, the stages with strong reference are World War II and the 1970s</strong></p><p>After the stock market crash in 1929, the United States fell into the Great Depression, and the people's run on gold brought the banking system to the brink of collapse. Under the gold standard, dollar issuance must be linked to gold reserves, which limits the government's ability to solve problems by issuing currency, and banks collapse in large numbers.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/603883\">Common people</a>Large unemployment. Therefore, after Roosevelt's New Deal in 1933, it was announced that all banks in the country must stop gold trading and nationalize gold.</p><p>After the outbreak of World War II, the United States officially entered the war, the fiscal deficit ratio of the United States once rose to 27%, and the Federal Reserve stabilized the latter's market interest rate by purchasing unlimited Treasury bills. As a result of this measure, from August 1939 to August 1948, the aggregate monetary base of the United States increased by 149%. Meanwhile, dollar-denominated gold rose 123% over the same period.</p><p>During the Bretton Woods system, the price of gold was fixed at $35/oz. However, after World War II, the U.S. economy took off, and international trade was settled in U.S. dollars. Due to the continuous expansion of the economy, there were more and more U.S. dollars, which led to the rapid increase of inflation in the United States, and the balance of payments continued to be in deficit, which had to rely on the issuance of currency to make up for it. As a result, inflation further intensified, and the credit of the U.S. dollar once faced the collapse.</p><p>Since the 1970s, the world has started to run on gold, and the gold reserves of the United States have decreased. The United States is worried that it will not be able to continue to support the exchange commitment between the US dollar and gold. The Brinton Woods system collapsed, and the price of gold once again changed from a fixed price to a floating price. From 1973 to 1980, gold soared from $35 to $850, a 24-fold increase. It wasn't until the violent Volcker-era rate hike in 1980 that gold really peaked.</p><p><strong>2. In the first decade of the 21st century, gold ushered in a new round of bull market</strong></p><p>Behind it is the catalysis of a series of events such as the \"911\" incident, inflation after the rapid economic development of the United States, the global financial crisis, and the European debt crisis. With the suppression of the European debt crisis and the gradual recovery of the U.S. economy, gold fell into a five-year bear market after 2011.</p><p>In the 17 years since the outbreak of the financial crisis, the average annual federal fiscal deficit ratio in the United States has reached 6.3%. Even excluding 2020 and 2021 in the epidemic environment, the average deficit ratio is as high as 5.4%, much higher than the 1950s to before the financial crisis. The average level is 1.7%, and the economic growth model with fiscal overdraft as the core driving force is the core reason for the continued depreciation of the US dollar relative to gold. After the Russia-Ukraine crisis in 2022, the technical default of the United States on Russia's US $300 billion foreign reserves marks a new stage of decline in the credit and influence of the US dollar. Represented by the People's Bank of China, it has reduced its holdings of US debt while hoarding gold substantially.</p><p><strong>3. There is no significant sign of overrising in this round of gold bull market</strong></p><p>If the United States started deficit monetization in 2008 as a starting point, the price of gold has increased 5.7 times so far; If we take the technical default of the United States on Russia's foreign exchange reserves in 2022 as a starting point, the price of gold has increased 2.4 times so far. Compared with the 24-fold increase in gold prices in the 1970s, there is no sign of significant overrise in this round of gold bull market.</p><p>The opposite of gold is the credit of the US dollar. In the long run, the rising trend of gold prices is positively correlated with the size of US debt. According to the forecast of the U.S. Congressional Budget Office (CBO), by 2035, the ratio of the total U.S. federal debt held by the public to U.S. GDP will rise from 97.8% in 2025 to 118.5%, exceeding the high point at the end of World War II. Against this background, there is still room for imagination in the gold bull market. Unless in this process, AI technology can bring about an overall increase in productivity in various industries from the organizational and structural levels, and lead the United States out of stagflation and improve economic and fiscal efficiency, then it is a signal of the end of the gold bull market.</p><p><strong>From the financial level, is the process of increasing gold purchases by the central bank and the market coming to an end?</strong></p><p><strong>1. Central bank gold purchases: the pace slows down rather than ends</strong></p><p>Against the background of global political multipolarization, the decline of the geopolitical influence of the United States, and the increasing debt vigilance of developed economies such as the United States and Europe, geopolitical powers (China, Russia, India, etc.), traditional neutral countries (Singapore, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, etc.) and Russia-Ukraine frontier countries (Poland, Hungary, etc.) have gradually increased their gold reserves in the past three years. The proportion of \"central bank gold purchases\" in gold investment demand once rose from 15% in the first quarter of 2022 to a high of 54% in the fourth quarter of 2024.</p><p>Even though it has significantly increased its holdings for three consecutive years, global central banks are still underweighting gold. According to World Bank data, gold reserves will account for about 22% of global central bank reserves in 2024, an increase of 7 percentage points from three years ago, but there is still a gap compared with important geopolitical turning points in history. This value was 29% at the end of the Cold War in 1990 and 58% at the end of the Great Stagflation in 1980. If the proportion of gold reserves held by the central bank returns to the level of 1990, there is still room for improvement of 7%, corresponding to about 3,400 tons of gold purchase demand.</p><p>According to the results of the World Gold Council's survey of central bank gold reserves in 2025, 76% of the central banks surveyed said that the proportion of gold reserves will continue to \"moderately rise\" in the next five years (46% in 2022, 62% in 2023, 69% in 2024), the performance of gold in times of crisis, portfolio diversification, and the demand to hedge against inflation are the core reasons for them to increase their holdings of gold.</p><p>Sinolink Securities believes that under the depreciation transaction of the fading credit of the US dollar, the revaluation of gold, as a scarce monetary asset without sovereign credit endorsement, is hard to end, and the price of gold has \"lost its anchor\". During this process, the central bank's demand for gold purchases has not weakened. Although the amount of gold purchases in the short term is not as frenzied as market funds, it will become an important gold price chassis force. When the gold price makes a technical correction, the gold purchase expectation of the central bank and sovereign funds will restrict the space and sustainability of the correction.</p><p><strong>2. Market funds: The demand for combination optimization and the demand for hedging AI narrative are still there</strong></p><p>For investment institutions, the long-term value of gold lies in its low pullback/retracement and low correlation with traditional stock and bond assets. It is an indispensable hedging tool in large asset allocation portfolios.</p><p>Although major asset allocation portfolios such as risk parity strategy portfolio and Markowitz-mean variance strategy portfolio already have certain exposure to gold, there are still some non-institutional investors and traditional stock-bond strategy portfolios that have not been involved in gold, because in the past For a long time, stock-bond hedging was effective, and bonds were enough to disperse the volatility risk of U.S. stocks. In the 40 years before 2022, the world as a whole has experienced a dividend era of falling interest rates and cooperation among superpowers. Especially after 2008, major central banks such as the United States, Europe, and Japan have maintained extremely loose monetary policies for many years. But since 2022, factors such as the global pandemic, Western populist politics, interest rate and inflation environment have caused great changes in global financial markets.</p><p>A persistent high inflationary environment will largely undermine the value of government bonds as a portfolio diversification tool. Nearly 50 years of historical experience shows that when the core inflation level in the United States is lower than 2.5%, the correlation between U.S. stocks and U.S. bonds is generally negative (that is, simultaneous allocation of stocks and bonds can effectively diversify risks), but when the core inflation is higher At 2.5%, this stock-bond hedge is on the verge of failure. This year, the positive correlation between U.S. stocks and bonds is still near the high level in the past 27 years, highlighting the necessity of alternative assets as diversified allocation tools. Given its historically low correlation with many traditional asset classes, a strategic allocation to gold can help improve the yield-risk price-performance ratio of various portfolios across a variety of market cycles. Global gold ETF holdings have increased by 20% in the past year, and strong investment demand may not only price in expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, but also signal that traditional portfolio strategies are changing.</p><p>For trading funds, the demand for gold holdings still exists. On the one hand, the Fed's interest rate cut cycle has not yet finished, and the market pricing will still cut interest rates 2-3 times next year. The expectation of a downward trend in real interest rates may drive market funds represented by gold ETFs to buy. On the other hand, the dumbbell strategy of \"long AI + long gold\" is a two-end bet on the next stage of the U.S. national fortune. When the AI bubble reaches the second half, the \"hedging\" attribute of gold is expected to increase.</p><p><strong>Gold: Current Pricing Perspective of Monetary Credit VS Price Comparison Perspective with U.S. Financial Assets</strong></p><p>Under the monetary credit system, if the global US dollar currency/global gold central bank reserves are used as the representative of global US dollar gold, then the US dollar credit implied by the current gold pricing of about US $4,000 an ounce is already lower than that of the Bretton Woods system in 1971. When the system collapsed. But if we look at it from another perspective, compared with financial assets in the United States, the current market value of gold/market value of stocks and bonds in the United States is just at a historical low near 1971.</p><p><strong>Risk warning:</strong>Data availability is limited, and there is a lag in public data; The pace of AI commercialization is accelerating, recharging US dollar credit; The understanding of the reconstruction of the international order is biased.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1388299.html\">智通财经</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4be30a3c11bd91e9d1f864c6a098fab1","relate_stocks":{"BK0012":"证金概念","BK0028":"国家队","BK0201":"可转债","BK0183":"MSCI概念","BK0276":"资本市场","BK0188":"融资融券"},"source_url":"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1388299.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2600017238","content_text":"国金证券发布研究报告称，尽管2025年内央行购金节奏放缓，但投机资金涌入推动金价走高，短期回调主要受情绪和技术性因素驱动，而全球滞胀、秩序混沌、美国赤字货币化的核心支撑逻辑未变。展望2026，当市场对“AI未知”这一定价逻辑尚未改变时，缺乏秩序仍是黄金的有利环境。当AI泡沫与黄金构成“哑铃”，黄金作为AI持仓的保险已实现了高光时刻的价值。白银作为既有“类黄金”属性又与AI电力相关的叙事资产，具备阶段性更高的弹性。但一旦AI叙事变得清晰，黄金的高光时刻或落幕，届时“两头受益”的白银叙事可能也会回归理性。国金证券主要观点如下：以史为鉴，当前黄金“超涨”了吗?一、回顾黄金价格的历史，具备较强参考性的阶段分别是二战时期和上世纪70年代1929年股市崩盘后，美国陷入经济大萧条，民众挤兑黄金导致银行体系濒临崩溃。金本位制下美元发行必须与黄金储备挂钩，这限制了政府通过发行货币来解决问题的能力，银行大批倒闭，老百姓大量失业。因此1933年美国罗斯福新政后，宣布全国所有银行必须停止黄金交易，将黄金收归国有。二战爆发美国正式参战后，美国财政赤字率一度升至27%，美联储通过无上限的国库券购买，稳定后者的市场利率。这一措施的结果是，从1939年8月至1948年8月，美国基础货币总量增长了149%。与此同时，以美元计价的黄金在同期上涨了123%。布雷顿森林体系时期，黄金价格被固定为35美元/盎司。但二战后美国经济腾飞，国际贸易又以美元结算，受到经济的不断扩张，美元是越来越多，导致美国的通货膨胀急速加剧，国际收支持续逆差，又不得不依靠发行货币来弥补，导致通货膨胀进一步加剧，美元信用一度面临崩塌。70年代起全球开始挤兑黄金，美国黄金储备减少，美国担忧无法继续支撑美元与黄金的兑换承诺。布林顿森林体系崩溃，金价再度由固定价格变成浮动价格。1973年-1980年，黄金从35美元一路飙升到850美元，翻了24倍。直到1980年沃尔克时代暴力加息，黄金才真正见顶。二、21世纪的第一个十年，黄金迎来新一轮牛市背后是“911”事件、美国经济高速发展后陷入通货膨胀、全球金融危机、欧债危机等一系列事件的催化。随着欧债危机得到抑制、美国经济逐渐复苏，黄金在2011年后陷入5年熊市。金融危机爆发至今的17年里，美国平均年度联邦财政赤字率达到6.3%，即使剔除疫情环境下的2020和2021年，平均赤字率也高达5.4%，远高于上世纪50年代至金融危机前的平均水平1.7%，以财政透支为核心驱动力的经济增长模式是美元相对于黄金持续贬值的核心原因。2022年俄乌危机后美国对于俄罗斯3000亿美元外储的技术性违约则标志着美元信用和影响力下降的新阶段，以中国央行为代表，一边减持美债一边大幅囤金。三、本轮黄金牛市并未有显著超涨的迹象若以2008年美国启动赤字货币化作为起点，迄今为止金价翻了5.7倍;若以2022年美国对俄罗斯外汇储备技术性违约作为起点，迄今为止金价翻了2.4倍。相较于上世纪70年代金价翻24倍的涨幅，本轮黄金牛市并未有显著超涨的迹象。黄金的对立面是美元信用，长期来看金价的上涨趋势与美国债务规模存在正相关性。据美国国会预算办公室(CBO)预测，到2035年，公众持有的美国联邦债务总量与美国GDP的比值将从2025年的97.8%上升至118.5%，超过二战结束时的高点，这一背景下黄金牛市仍有想象空间。除非这一过程中，出现了AI技术能够从组织和架构层面带来各行业生产率的全面提升，并带领美国重新走出滞胀、改善经济和财政效率，那么即是黄金牛市终止的信号。从资金层面，央行和市场增购黄金的进程是否快要走完?一、央行购金：节奏放缓而非结束在全球政治多极化、美国地缘影响力下降以及美欧等发达经济体债务警惕日益上升的背景下，地缘大国(中国、俄罗斯、印度等)、传统中立国(新加坡、沙特、卡塔尔等)及俄乌前沿地带国家(波兰、匈牙利等)在过去三年内逐步增加黄金储备。黄金投资需求中“央行购金”的占比从2022年一季度的15%，一度上升至2024年四季度的高点54%。即便已经连续三年显著增持，目前全球央行对黄金仍然偏低配。根据世界银行数据，2024年全球央行储备中黄金储备占比约为22%，较三年前上升了7个百分点，但相较于历史上重要的地缘政治格局转折点均仍有差距。1990年冷战末期时这一数值为29%，1980年大滞胀末期时为58%。央行持有黄金储备占比若回到1990年的水平，还有7%的提升空间，对应约3400吨的购金需求。2025年世界黄金协会对央行黄金储备的调查结果显示，76%的受访央行表示未来5年黄金储备占比将继续“温和上升(Moderately higher)”(2022年为46%，2023年为62%，2024年为69%)，黄金在危机时期的表现、组合多元化、以及对冲通胀的诉求是他们增持黄金最核心的理由。国金证券认为，美元信用褪色的贬值交易下，黄金作为稀缺的无主权信用背书的货币资产，价值重估难言结束，金价已经“失锚”。这一过程中，央行购金需求并未减弱，短期内购金量虽不及市场资金狂热，但会成为一股重要的金价底盘力量。当金价技术性回调时，央行和主权基金的购金预期将对回调空间和持续性产生约束。二、市场资金：组合优化需求与对冲AI叙事需求仍在对于投资机构而言，黄金的长期价值在于其回撤低、和传统股债资产间相关性低，是大类资产配置组合中不可或缺的对冲工具。虽然风险平价策略组合、马科维茨—均值方差策略组合等大类资产配置组合已具备一定的黄金敞口，但仍有一部分非机构类投资者和传统股债策略组合并未涉足黄金，因为过去相当长的时期内，股债对冲是有效的，债券足以分散美股的波动风险。2022年以前的40年里，全球整体都在经历了一个利率下降、超级大国之间以合作为主的红利时代，尤其是2008年之后美、欧、日等主要央行均维持极度宽松货币政策多年。但是自2022年以来，全球大流行、西方民粹主义政治、利率与通胀环境等因素使全球金融市场发生了极大的变化。持续的高通胀环境在很大程度上会削弱政府债券作为组合多元化工具的价值。近50年历史经验显示，当美国核心通胀水平低于2.5%时，美股美债之间的相关性大体上为负(即同时配置股+债便能有效分散风险)，但当核心通胀高于2.5%时，这种股债对冲濒临失效。今年美国股债的正相关性仍然处于近27年来的高位附近，凸显了另类资产作为多元化配置工具的必要性。鉴于黄金与许多传统资产类别的相关性历来较低，对黄金进行战略性配置有助于改善各种投资组合在各种市场周期中的收益风险性价比。过去一年里，全球黄金ETF持有量增长了20%，强劲的投资需求可能不仅在定价美联储降息预期，也是传统资产组合策略正在发生变革的信号。对于交易性资金而言，黄金的增持需求也仍然存在。一方面，美联储降息周期尚未走完，市场定价明年仍会落地2-3次降息，实际利率下行预期或驱动以黄金ETF为代表的市场资金买入。另一方面，“做多AI+做多黄金”的哑铃策略是对下一阶段美国国运的两头押注，当AI泡沫行至后半段，黄金的“对冲”属性有望增强。黄金：当前货币信用的定价视角 VS 与美国金融资产的比价视角在货币信用体系下，如果用全球美元货币/全球黄金央行储备量作为全球美元黄金的代表，那么当前4000美元左右一盎司的黄金定价所隐含的美元信用已经低于1971年布雷顿森林体系破灭之时。但如果换一个视角来看，与美国的金融资产比价，当前黄金市值/美国的股票和债券市值也刚好处于与1971年附近的历史低位。风险提示：数据可得性有限，公开数据存在滞后性;AI商业化节奏加快，为美元信用充值;对国际秩序重构的理解有偏差。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"XAUUSD.FOREX":2,"GCmain":2}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":14,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":516336489374488,"gmtCreate":1767081634287,"gmtModify":1767081637625,"author":{"id":"4100931252200150","authorId":"4100931252200150","name":"singsongone 10","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/462ccef18f89d947590655a7c54754d7","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4100931252200150","idStr":"4100931252200150"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/PDD\">$PDD Holdings Inc(PDD)$&nbsp;</a><a href=\"https://ttm.financial/U/10000000000011061\">@Trade Feed Decoder</a>","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/PDD\">$PDD Holdings Inc(PDD)$&nbsp;</a><a href=\"https://ttm.financial/U/10000000000011061\">@Trade Feed Decoder</a>","text":"$PDD Holdings Inc(PDD)$ @Trade Feed Decoder","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":26,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":9,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/516336489374488","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":843,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":511378397487536,"gmtCreate":1765873982173,"gmtModify":1765874023822,"author":{"id":"4100931252200150","authorId":"4100931252200150","name":"singsongone 10","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/462ccef18f89d947590655a7c54754d7","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4100931252200150","idStr":"4100931252200150"},"themes":[],"title":"What are the potential impacts of VinFast's delivery growth on its stock?","htmlText":"Find out more here: <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/gpt/share/ca37720ad270471ea3ce741aae811b9b?utm_medium=tiger_community&amp;platform=iOS&amp;shareID=87303f9c356c36a3257c352f99d92ea8&amp;invite=S8N122&amp;lang=en_US\">What are the potential impacts of VinFast's delivery growth on its stock?</a> VinFast's delivery growth has the potential to drive significant stock price appreciation through improved fundamentals and market sentiment, though persistent losses and high execution risks temper the upside. The company's November 2025 domestic deliveries reached a record 23,186 vehicles, bringing year-to-date Vietnam deliveries to 147,450 units, demonstrating strong momentum in its core market1011. This delivery growth supports revenue expansion, with Q3 2025 revenue reaching 18.1 trillion VND (a","listText":"Find out more here: <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/gpt/share/ca37720ad270471ea3ce741aae811b9b?utm_medium=tiger_community&amp;platform=iOS&amp;shareID=87303f9c356c36a3257c352f99d92ea8&amp;invite=S8N122&amp;lang=en_US\">What are the potential impacts of VinFast's delivery growth on its stock?</a> VinFast's delivery growth has the potential to drive significant stock price appreciation through improved fundamentals and market sentiment, though persistent losses and high execution risks temper the upside. The company's November 2025 domestic deliveries reached a record 23,186 vehicles, bringing year-to-date Vietnam deliveries to 147,450 units, demonstrating strong momentum in its core market1011. This delivery growth supports revenue expansion, with Q3 2025 revenue reaching 18.1 trillion VND (a","text":"Find out more here: What are the potential impacts of VinFast's delivery growth on its stock? VinFast's delivery growth has the potential to drive significant stock price appreciation through improved fundamentals and market sentiment, though persistent losses and high execution risks temper the upside. The company's November 2025 domestic deliveries reached a record 23,186 vehicles, bringing year-to-date Vietnam deliveries to 147,450 units, demonstrating strong momentum in its core market1011. This delivery growth supports revenue expansion, with Q3 2025 revenue reaching 18.1 trillion VND (a","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/511378397487536","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":423,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":509599008170680,"gmtCreate":1765445244475,"gmtModify":1765445247849,"author":{"id":"4100931252200150","authorId":"4100931252200150","name":"singsongone 10","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/462ccef18f89d947590655a7c54754d7","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4100931252200150","idStr":"4100931252200150"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/03690\">$MEITUAN-W(03690)$&nbsp;</a><a href=\"https://ttm.financial/U/10000000000011061\">@Trade Feed Decoder</a>","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/03690\">$MEITUAN-W(03690)$&nbsp;</a><a href=\"https://ttm.financial/U/10000000000011061\">@Trade Feed Decoder</a>","text":"$MEITUAN-W(03690)$ @Trade Feed Decoder","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":30,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":13,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/509599008170680","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1361,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":509598537679328,"gmtCreate":1765445218974,"gmtModify":1765445223234,"author":{"id":"4100931252200150","authorId":"4100931252200150","name":"singsongone 10","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/462ccef18f89d947590655a7c54754d7","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4100931252200150","idStr":"4100931252200150"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/NIO.SI\">$NIO Inc. USD OV(NIO.SI)$&nbsp;</a><a href=\"https://ttm.financial/U/10000000000011061\">@Trade Feed Decoder</a>","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/NIO.SI\">$NIO Inc. USD OV(NIO.SI)$&nbsp;</a><a href=\"https://ttm.financial/U/10000000000011061\">@Trade Feed Decoder</a>","text":"$NIO Inc. USD OV(NIO.SI)$ @Trade Feed Decoder","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":23,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":7,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/509598537679328","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1019,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":506716274868536,"gmtCreate":1764731822410,"gmtModify":1764731825808,"author":{"id":"4100931252200150","authorId":"4100931252200150","name":"singsongone 10","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/462ccef18f89d947590655a7c54754d7","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4100931252200150","idStr":"4100931252200150"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Q","listText":"Q","text":"Q","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/506716274868536","repostId":"506651270157024","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":506651270157024,"gmtCreate":1764715971100,"gmtModify":1764783602552,"author":{"id":"3559581955535845","authorId":"3559581955535845","name":"koolgal","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c05274d88ffc0434623e57350c52c70a","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3559581955535845","idStr":"3559581955535845"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"🌟🌟🌟My Top Pick is <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/CRWD\"> $CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc.(CRWD)$ </a>as it is rated a strong Buy by analysts. Crowd Strike has just reported a stellar Q3 25 earnings with revenue of USD 1.23 billion, up 22% year over year and adjusted EPS of USD 0.96, both figures exceeding analysts expectations. CrowdStrike has also raised its fiscal 2026 guidance. I believe that CrowdStrike is a great stock to buy due to its strong market position and robust growth in the Cybersecurity sector. <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/U/3527667620927015\"> @Tiger_Earnings </a><a href=\"https://ttm.financial/U/3501196737273098\"> @Tiger_comments </a><a href=\"https://ttm.financial/U/9000000000000149\"> @TigerStars </a><a href=\"https://ttm.financial/U/4106547232749330\"> @Tiger_SG </a><a href=\"\"></a>","listText":"🌟🌟🌟My Top Pick is <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/CRWD\"> $CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc.(CRWD)$ </a>as it is rated a strong Buy by analysts. Crowd Strike has just reported a stellar Q3 25 earnings with revenue of USD 1.23 billion, up 22% year over year and adjusted EPS of USD 0.96, both figures exceeding analysts expectations. CrowdStrike has also raised its fiscal 2026 guidance. I believe that CrowdStrike is a great stock to buy due to its strong market position and robust growth in the Cybersecurity sector. <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/U/3527667620927015\"> @Tiger_Earnings </a><a href=\"https://ttm.financial/U/3501196737273098\"> @Tiger_comments </a><a href=\"https://ttm.financial/U/9000000000000149\"> @TigerStars </a><a href=\"https://ttm.financial/U/4106547232749330\"> @Tiger_SG </a><a href=\"\"></a>","text":"🌟🌟🌟My Top Pick is $CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc.(CRWD)$ as it is rated a strong Buy by analysts. Crowd Strike has just reported a stellar Q3 25 earnings with revenue of USD 1.23 billion, up 22% year over year and adjusted EPS of USD 0.96, both figures exceeding analysts expectations. CrowdStrike has also raised its fiscal 2026 guidance. I believe that CrowdStrike is a great stock to buy due to its strong market position and robust growth in the Cybersecurity sector. @Tiger_Earnings @Tiger_comments @TigerStars @Tiger_SG","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/6982afc1ae1e2c51b62ce2ca12c41256"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/506651270157024","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":550,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":500064625918264,"gmtCreate":1763111161756,"gmtModify":1767634405776,"author":{"id":"4100931252200150","authorId":"4100931252200150","name":"singsongone 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Decoder","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":12,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":8,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/500064625918264","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":850,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":499396981908096,"gmtCreate":1762948073089,"gmtModify":1767641074947,"author":{"id":"4100931252200150","authorId":"4100931252200150","name":"singsongone 10","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/462ccef18f89d947590655a7c54754d7","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4100931252200150","idStr":"4100931252200150"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/XPEV\">$XPeng Inc.(XPEV)$&nbsp;</a><a href=\"https://ttm.financial/U/10000000000011061\">@Trade Feed Decoder</a>","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/XPEV\">$XPeng Inc.(XPEV)$&nbsp;</a><a href=\"https://ttm.financial/U/10000000000011061\">@Trade Feed Decoder</a>","text":"$XPeng Inc.(XPEV)$ @Trade Feed Decoder","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":41,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":17,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/499396981908096","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2167,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":487723648590008,"gmtCreate":1760096432543,"gmtModify":1760096437363,"author":{"id":"4100931252200150","authorId":"4100931252200150","name":"singsongone 10","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/462ccef18f89d947590655a7c54754d7","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4100931252200150","idStr":"4100931252200150"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/03690\">$MEITUAN-W(03690)$&nbsp;</a>Take a look at the latest order I posted！<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/U/10000000000011061\">@Trade Feed Decoder</a>","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/03690\">$MEITUAN-W(03690)$&nbsp;</a>Take a look at the latest order I posted！<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/U/10000000000011061\">@Trade Feed Decoder</a>","text":"$MEITUAN-W(03690)$ Take a look at the latest order I posted！@Trade Feed Decoder","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":37,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":38,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/487723648590008","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2799,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":477840560288648,"gmtCreate":1757666597595,"gmtModify":1757666601036,"author":{"id":"4100931252200150","authorId":"4100931252200150","name":"singsongone 10","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/462ccef18f89d947590655a7c54754d7","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4100931252200150","idStr":"4100931252200150"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[开心]&nbsp;&nbsp;[开心]&nbsp;&nbsp;[开心]&nbsp;&nbsp;","listText":"[开心]&nbsp;&nbsp;[开心]&nbsp;&nbsp;[开心]&nbsp;&nbsp;","text":"[开心] [开心] [开心]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/477840560288648","repostId":"2566923403","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2566923403","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Reuters.com brings you the latest news from around the world, covering breaking news in markets, business, politics, entertainment and technology","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Reuters","id":"1032215980","head_image":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/4567337cbdf294b657b1fa87c5488b48"},"pubTimestamp":1757658974,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2566923403?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2025-09-12 14:36","market":"us","language":"en","title":"AB Akola Group Reports 4.9% Revenue Increase and €62 Million Profit for 2024/2025 Fiscal Year","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2566923403","media":"Reuters","summary":"Disclaimer: This news brief was created by Public Technologies  using generative artificial intelligence. While PUBT strives to provide accurate and timely information, this AI-generated content is for informational purposes only and should not be interpreted as financial, investment, or legal advice. AB Akola Group published the original content used to generate this news brief via GlobeNewswire  on September 12, 2025, and is solely responsible for the information contained therein.","content":"<html xmlns=\"http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml\" xmlns:newsg2=\"http://iptc.org/std/nar/2006-10-01/\" xmlns:xhtml=\"http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml\"><head><title>\n      AB Akola Group Reports 4.9% Revenue Increase and €62 Million Profit for 2024/2025 Fiscal Year\n    </title></head><body><div xmlns:xsd=\"http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema\" xmlns:xsi=\"http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance\">\n<p>\n        AB Akola Group, the largest agricultural and food production group in the Baltics, announced its financial results for the 2024/2025 financial year, recording consolidated revenue of €1,580 million, a 4.9% increase compared to the previous year. The Group achieved the second-highest profit in its history, exceeding €62 million. The compound feed segment experienced significant growth, with production reaching record levels and revenues increasing by 16.9%. This surge in demand necessitates further investment to expand production capacity. Conversely, the pet food segment saw a 2% decline in production and an 11% drop in sales, attributed to a shift towards premium products. Despite lower production efficiency, the focus on premium and mid-range products stabilized annual revenues, with these categories now representing 86% of total production, up from 50% the previous year. AB Akola Group is progressing with plans to expand its feed production and intends to apply for approximately €10 million in support from the National Paying Agency. As part of this strategy, the Group is evaluating technological solutions to enhance production capacity, with investment decisions to follow a thorough assessment of alternatives. The location for a new compound feed plant is under consideration, with Alytus as one of the potential sites, and the project is anticipated to be completed within the next two to three years.\n      </p>\n</div><div xmlns:xsd=\"http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema\" xmlns:xsi=\"http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance\">\n<em>Disclaimer: <span>This news brief was created by Public Technologies (PUBT) using generative artificial intelligence. While PUBT strives to provide accurate and timely information, this AI-generated content is for informational purposes only and should not be interpreted as financial, investment, or legal advice. AB Akola Group published the original content used to generate this news brief via GlobeNewswire (Ref. ID: GNW1001127608-en) on September 12, 2025, and is solely responsible for the information contained therein.</span></em>\n</div></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>AB Akola Group Reports 4.9% Revenue Increase and €62 Million Profit for 2024/2025 Fiscal Year</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAB Akola Group Reports 4.9% Revenue Increase and €62 Million Profit for 2024/2025 Fiscal Year\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1032215980\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/4567337cbdf294b657b1fa87c5488b48);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Reuters </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2025-09-12 14:36</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html xmlns=\"http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml\" xmlns:newsg2=\"http://iptc.org/std/nar/2006-10-01/\" xmlns:xhtml=\"http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml\"><head><title>\n      AB Akola Group Reports 4.9% Revenue Increase and €62 Million Profit for 2024/2025 Fiscal Year\n    </title></head><body><div xmlns:xsd=\"http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema\" xmlns:xsi=\"http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance\">\n<p>\n        AB Akola Group, the largest agricultural and food production group in the Baltics, announced its financial results for the 2024/2025 financial year, recording consolidated revenue of €1,580 million, a 4.9% increase compared to the previous year. The Group achieved the second-highest profit in its history, exceeding €62 million. The compound feed segment experienced significant growth, with production reaching record levels and revenues increasing by 16.9%. This surge in demand necessitates further investment to expand production capacity. Conversely, the pet food segment saw a 2% decline in production and an 11% drop in sales, attributed to a shift towards premium products. Despite lower production efficiency, the focus on premium and mid-range products stabilized annual revenues, with these categories now representing 86% of total production, up from 50% the previous year. AB Akola Group is progressing with plans to expand its feed production and intends to apply for approximately €10 million in support from the National Paying Agency. As part of this strategy, the Group is evaluating technological solutions to enhance production capacity, with investment decisions to follow a thorough assessment of alternatives. The location for a new compound feed plant is under consideration, with Alytus as one of the potential sites, and the project is anticipated to be completed within the next two to three years.\n      </p>\n</div><div xmlns:xsd=\"http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema\" xmlns:xsi=\"http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance\">\n<em>Disclaimer: <span>This news brief was created by Public Technologies (PUBT) using generative artificial intelligence. While PUBT strives to provide accurate and timely information, this AI-generated content is for informational purposes only and should not be interpreted as financial, investment, or legal advice. AB Akola Group published the original content used to generate this news brief via GlobeNewswire (Ref. ID: GNW1001127608-en) on September 12, 2025, and is solely responsible for the information contained therein.</span></em>\n</div></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NDAQ":"纳斯达克OMX交易所"},"source_url":"https://api.refinitiv.com/data/news/v1/stories/urn:newsml:reuters.com:20250912:nNDL98VQn2:1","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2566923403","content_text":"AB Akola Group Reports 4.9% Revenue Increase and €62 Million Profit for 2024/2025 Fiscal Year\n    \n\n        AB Akola Group, the largest agricultural and food production group in the Baltics, announced its financial results for the 2024/2025 financial year, recording consolidated revenue of €1,580 million, a 4.9% increase compared to the previous year. The Group achieved the second-highest profit in its history, exceeding €62 million. The compound feed segment experienced significant growth, with production reaching record levels and revenues increasing by 16.9%. This surge in demand necessitates further investment to expand production capacity. Conversely, the pet food segment saw a 2% decline in production and an 11% drop in sales, attributed to a shift towards premium products. Despite lower production efficiency, the focus on premium and mid-range products stabilized annual revenues, with these categories now representing 86% of total production, up from 50% the previous year. AB Akola Group is progressing with plans to expand its feed production and intends to apply for approximately €10 million in support from the National Paying Agency. As part of this strategy, the Group is evaluating technological solutions to enhance production capacity, with investment decisions to follow a thorough assessment of alternatives. The location for a new compound feed plant is under consideration, with Alytus as one of the potential sites, and the project is anticipated to be completed within the next two to three years.\n      \n\nDisclaimer: This news brief was created by Public Technologies (PUBT) using generative artificial intelligence. While PUBT strives to provide accurate and timely information, this AI-generated content is for informational purposes only and should not be interpreted as financial, investment, or legal advice. AB Akola Group published the original content used to generate this news brief via GlobeNewswire (Ref. ID: GNW1001127608-en) on September 12, 2025, and is solely responsible for the information contained therein.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NDAQ":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1112,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":477114362343424,"gmtCreate":1757489401843,"gmtModify":1759029625566,"author":{"id":"4100931252200150","authorId":"4100931252200150","name":"singsongone 10","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/462ccef18f89d947590655a7c54754d7","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4100931252200150","idStr":"4100931252200150"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/01810\">$XIAOMI-W(01810)$&nbsp;</a>来看看我最新分享的订单！<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/U/10000000000011061\">@Trade Feed Decoder</a>","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/01810\">$XIAOMI-W(01810)$&nbsp;</a>来看看我最新分享的订单！<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/U/10000000000011061\">@Trade Feed Decoder</a>","text":"$XIAOMI-W(01810)$ 来看看我最新分享的订单！@Trade Feed Decoder","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":3,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/477114362343424","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1874,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":477110189027328,"gmtCreate":1757488382967,"gmtModify":1758045977208,"author":{"id":"4100931252200150","authorId":"4100931252200150","name":"singsongone 10","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/462ccef18f89d947590655a7c54754d7","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4100931252200150","idStr":"4100931252200150"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/AAPL\">$Apple(AAPL)$&nbsp;</a>来看看我最新分享的订单！<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/U/10000000000011061\">@Trade Feed Decoder</a>","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/AAPL\">$Apple(AAPL)$&nbsp;</a>来看看我最新分享的订单！<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/U/10000000000011061\">@Trade Feed Decoder</a>","text":"$Apple(AAPL)$ 来看看我最新分享的订单！@Trade Feed Decoder","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":10,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":5,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/477110189027328","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2185,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":469630564110912,"gmtCreate":1755693168889,"gmtModify":1755693171913,"author":{"id":"4100931252200150","authorId":"4100931252200150","name":"singsongone 10","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/462ccef18f89d947590655a7c54754d7","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4100931252200150","idStr":"4100931252200150"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/AAPL\">$蘋果(AAPL)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/AAPL\">$蘋果(AAPL)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>&nbsp;","text":"$蘋果(AAPL)$","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/1927b498a9148b2a7c8d37bf3d34b177","width":"972","height":"1631"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/469630564110912","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1065,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":460411626250240,"gmtCreate":1753415508776,"gmtModify":1753415513833,"author":{"id":"4100931252200150","authorId":"4100931252200150","name":"singsongone 10","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/462ccef18f89d947590655a7c54754d7","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4100931252200150","idStr":"4100931252200150"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Subscribed, very good portfolio sizing and diversification [Grin] <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/U/3557880070444625\"> @Sporeshare </a><a href=\"https://ttm.financial/U/4175237419056872\"> @北极篂 </a>come to learn and win coins friends<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/U/3564224494282146\"> @s33b </a>","listText":"Subscribed, very good portfolio sizing and diversification [Grin] <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/U/3557880070444625\"> @Sporeshare </a><a href=\"https://ttm.financial/U/4175237419056872\"> @北极篂 </a>come to learn and win coins friends<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/U/3564224494282146\"> @s33b </a>","text":"Subscribed, very good portfolio sizing and diversification [Grin] @Sporeshare @北极篂 come to learn and win coins friends @s33b","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/34ac84abb762e20f133474c5e277ff7d"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/460411626250240","repostId":"460366158778464","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":460366158778464,"gmtCreate":1753413125627,"gmtModify":1753671767740,"author":{"id":"3527667671414981","authorId":"3527667671414981","name":"TigerClub","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c0f6fba0673df1de1c5c31bb2b4f6d4e","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3527667671414981","idStr":"3527667671414981"},"themes":[],"title":"@Jagannathan J: Missed the Rally, Bought the Crash — What It Taught Him About Real Investing","htmlText":"Meet <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://ttm.financial/U/4140074789257422\">@Jagannathan J</a> — a star contributor in the Tiger Community. Known for his sharp trade feeds and insightful articles, his honest reflections reveal the journey from an options trader to a disciplined long-term investor.With 17 years in the market, Jagan’s journey began with childhood curiosity and early success in derivatives. A major loss in March 2020 taught him the limits of timing and the power of long-term conviction. Today, he invests with patience, clarity, and a focus on compounding quality.Want to know his real-time trading? <a href=\"https://www.laohu8.com/J/starInvestor?uuid=4140074789257422\" target=\"_blank\">Click to view his trading information, and subscribe to receive his real-time trading signal!</a>Jo","listText":"Meet <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://ttm.financial/U/4140074789257422\">@Jagannathan J</a> — a star contributor in the Tiger Community. Known for his sharp trade feeds and insightful articles, his honest reflections reveal the journey from an options trader to a disciplined long-term investor.With 17 years in the market, Jagan’s journey began with childhood curiosity and early success in derivatives. A major loss in March 2020 taught him the limits of timing and the power of long-term conviction. Today, he invests with patience, clarity, and a focus on compounding quality.Want to know his real-time trading? <a href=\"https://www.laohu8.com/J/starInvestor?uuid=4140074789257422\" target=\"_blank\">Click to view his trading information, and subscribe to receive his real-time trading signal!</a>Jo","text":"Meet @Jagannathan J — a star contributor in the Tiger Community. Known for his sharp trade feeds and insightful articles, his honest reflections reveal the journey from an options trader to a disciplined long-term investor.With 17 years in the market, Jagan’s journey began with childhood curiosity and early success in derivatives. A major loss in March 2020 taught him the limits of timing and the power of long-term conviction. Today, he invests with patience, clarity, and a focus on compounding quality.Want to know his real-time trading? Click to view his trading information, and subscribe to receive his real-time trading signal!Jo","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/d6b6f5776da0b72a1860ef4c6e9f360f"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/7bc5b0761e175203aa95015af9843de7"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/b957893d4b75bdeb6577f93ce3bf4917"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/460366158778464","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":5,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1287,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":456671798190232,"gmtCreate":1752494551185,"gmtModify":1752494555306,"author":{"id":"4100931252200150","authorId":"4100931252200150","name":"singsongone 10","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/462ccef18f89d947590655a7c54754d7","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4100931252200150","idStr":"4100931252200150"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[得意]&nbsp;&nbsp;[得意]&nbsp;&nbsp;[得意]&nbsp;&nbsp;[得意]&nbsp;&nbsp;[得意]&nbsp;&nbsp;","listText":"[得意]&nbsp;&nbsp;[得意]&nbsp;&nbsp;[得意]&nbsp;&nbsp;[得意]&nbsp;&nbsp;[得意]&nbsp;&nbsp;","text":"[得意] [得意] [得意] [得意] [得意]","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/8c58757ec99db5e442e5be2b11aeb23e","width":"937","height":"10451"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/456671798190232","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1402,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":455454218166896,"gmtCreate":1752231862323,"gmtModify":1752231866167,"author":{"id":"4100931252200150","authorId":"4100931252200150","name":"singsongone 10","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/462ccef18f89d947590655a7c54754d7","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4100931252200150","idStr":"4100931252200150"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/AAPL\"> $Apple(AAPL)$ </a>bought dips at apple. Chiong!","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/AAPL\"> $Apple(AAPL)$ </a>bought dips at apple. Chiong!","text":"$Apple(AAPL)$ bought dips at apple. Chiong!","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/e69af5dbcaace36eeec67143b6f30dd7"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/455454218166896","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1175,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":423369310286056,"gmtCreate":1744369699887,"gmtModify":1744369703565,"author":{"id":"4100931252200150","authorId":"4100931252200150","name":"singsongone 10","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/462ccef18f89d947590655a7c54754d7","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4100931252200150","idStr":"4100931252200150"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Buc&nbsp;","listText":"Buc&nbsp;","text":"Buc","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/423369310286056","repostId":"1187115017","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1187115017","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"直播第一时间播报","home_visible":1,"media_name":"业绩会速递","id":"1005067890","head_image":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/decf3d8a922fc5c1c1d787bf8b36173f"},"pubTimestamp":1742559186,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1187115017?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2025-03-21 20:13","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Summary of Meituan's 2024Q4 results conference call: AI strategy, overseas expansion and core business outlook","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1187115017","media":"业绩会速递","summary":"- 第四季度总收入同比增长20.1%至885亿元人民币。- 美团优选去年进行重大战略调整，效率显著提升。通过以上问答，投资者可以更清晰地了解美团在AI战略、海外扩张、核心业务发展以及股东回报等方面的最新进展和未来规划。公司在保持核心业务稳健增长的同时，积极布局AI技术和海外市场，为长期发展奠定基础。","content":"<p><br><br>[Performance Highlights and Outlook]<br>-Total revenue for the full year of 2024 will increase by 22% year-on-year to 337.6 billion yuan.<br>-The annual transaction users exceeded 770 million, and the annual number of merchants increased significantly to 14.5 million.<br>-The average user purchase frequency reached a new high.<br>-Total revenue in the fourth quarter increased by 20.1% year-on-year to 88.5 billion yuan.<br>-The core local commercial segment continued to maintain strong year-on-year revenue growth of 18.9% to 65.6 billion yuan.<br><br>[Q&A Essence]<br><br>Question 1: About AI strategy and related technology investment plans, and how can these be integrated into existing businesses to enhance competitiveness?<br><br>A:<br>1. Three-tier architecture of AI strategy:<br>AI at Work: Improve productivity and work experience for more than 100,000 employees.<br>-AI in Products: Upgrade existing products and services and launch new AI-native products.<br>-Self-developed large language model: Continue to invest in improving internal large language model capabilities.<br><br>2. Specific applications:<br>-Employee productivity: The self-developed large language model \"Totoro\" is combined with external models to develop efficient tools such as AI coding and intelligent meetings.<br>-Customer service: AI customer service efficiency has increased by more than 20%, and customer satisfaction has increased by 0.5 percentage points.<br>-Business operations: AI sales assistant supports BD team and significantly improves work efficiency.<br>-Technology development: 27% of new code is generated by AI coding assistants.<br><br>AI Native new products:<br>-It is planned to launch a more advanced AI assistant covering all services of Meituan this year.<br>-Leverage rich offline services and powerful instant delivery capabilities to meet users' needs in the digital and physical worlds.<br><br>4. Infrastructure investment:<br>-Give priority to ensuring the supply of GPU resources. Last year, we invested billions of yuan, and plan to further expand investment this year.<br>-The evaluation results of the self-developed large language model \"Totoro\" are comparable to top domestic models.<br><br>5. Combination of AI and robots:<br>-Apply AI to fields such as instant delivery, autonomous driving and logistics automation.<br>-Deepen cooperation with leading robotics and autonomous driving startups.<br><br>Question 2: About Kita's expansion plan in Saudi Arabia and overseas expansion strategy of other businesses?<br><br>A:<br>1. Kita's development in Saudi Arabia:<br>-Growth has been strong since its launch in Riyadh last October.<br>-It has now expanded to more than a dozen major cities in Saudi Arabia.<br><br>2. Overseas business focus:<br>-Currently focusing on food delivery business.<br>-It is planned to use the high-frequency traffic and distribution network established by take-out business to expand other services in the future.<br><br>3. Overseas investment in 2025:<br>-Will be significantly higher than 2024 to support the rapid growth of business scale and the increase of market share.<br>-At the same time, pay close attention to the return on investment and continue to improve efficiency.<br><br>4. Long-term overseas strategy:<br>-Learn from China's experience and develop other businesses on the basis of take-out business.<br>-Optimistic about the long-term development prospects and profitability of overseas markets.<br><br>Question 3: How to balance new business investment with shareholder return plan?<br><br>A:<br>1. New business investment strategy:<br>-Carefully evaluate each new business and flexibly adjust strategies.<br>-Ensure healthy growth of new business and achieve long-term financial goals.<br><br>2. Existing new business progress:<br>-Some businesses, such as catering supply chain, shared bicycles, pet foster care and shared power banks, have achieved market leadership and continued to improve efficiency.<br>-Meituan Preferred made major strategic adjustments last year, and its efficiency was significantly improved.<br><br>3. Meituan's preferred development focus:<br>-Reshape commodity-related capabilities and create differentiated advantages.<br>-The long-term goal is to achieve a profit margin comparable to that of offline retail channels.<br><br>4. Shareholder return plan:<br>-Continue to increase shareholder returns through share buybacks.<br>-First offset the dilution caused by employee options, and seize market opportunities to further reduce the number of outstanding shares.<br>-It is expected to repay approximately US $1.5 billion in convertible bonds and US $750 million in corporate bonds in 2025.<br><br>Question 4: What is the future growth strategy of food delivery business and the strategic focus of Meituan Flash Sale?<br><br>A:<br>1. Growth potential of instant delivery business:<br>-Management maintains confidence in the potential of the overall on-demand delivery business, including food and non-food.<br>-Continue to attract new users, especially young users. The initial purchase frequency and unit price of new users are higher than those of early user groups.<br>-Existing users use takeaway services in a wider range of scenarios and time periods.<br><br>2. Supply-side innovation:<br>-New supply modes such as spelling good rice attract consumer demand and improve the frequency of use and overall efficiency.<br><br>3. Meituan flash sale development:<br>-Maintain rapid growth, which is higher than that of food distribution.<br>-Continue to empower merchants and brands to operate online, and deepen cooperation with brand retailers.<br>-Strengthen the consumer mind of \"everything is there\".<br><br>4. Long-term goals:<br>-Maintain the vision and goal of exceeding 100 million orders per day for instant delivery business.<br><br>5. Ecosystem construction:<br>-Launch a merchant support plan with financial support of more than 1 billion yuan.<br>-It is planned to take the lead in launching rider social security pilot projects in some cities in the second quarter of 2025, and will be gradually promoted nationwide in the future.<br>-Strengthen food safety management and launch the \"Bright Kitchen and Bright Stove\" program.<br><br>Question 5: What is the competitive landscape of in-store hotel and travel business, the growth expectation of GTV, and the impact of \"God Membership\" on this business?<br><br>A:<br>1. In-store business growth expectation:<br>-Despite the rapid growth of GTV in the past two years, management expects the growth momentum to remain strong in the next few years.<br>-The online penetration rate of in-store categories is still low compared with e-commerce of physical goods, and the company will continue to promote online penetration and consolidate its competitive advantage.<br><br>2. The impact of \"God Membership\" on in-store hotel and travel business:<br>-The \"God Membership\" program has a positive impact on the in-store hotel and travel business, but the specific data has not been disclosed.<br>-The company is upgrading \"God Member\" to \"Meituan Member\", which is expected to further strengthen user stickiness and cross-category synergy.<br><br>Through the above questions and answers, investors can have a clearer understanding of Meituan's latest progress and future plans in AI strategy, overseas expansion, core business development, and shareholder returns. While maintaining steady growth in its core business, the company actively deploys AI technology and overseas markets to lay the foundation for long-term development.<br><br>Disclaimer: The express content of this performance meeting is generated by artificial intelligence and is for reference only. There may be inaccuracies due to technical limitations and does not constitute any investment advice or commitment.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Summary of Meituan's 2024Q4 results conference call: AI strategy, overseas expansion and core business outlook</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSummary of Meituan's 2024Q4 results conference call: AI strategy, overseas expansion and core business outlook\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1005067890\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/decf3d8a922fc5c1c1d787bf8b36173f);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">业绩会速递 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2025-03-21 20:13</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><br><br>[Performance Highlights and Outlook]<br>-Total revenue for the full year of 2024 will increase by 22% year-on-year to 337.6 billion yuan.<br>-The annual transaction users exceeded 770 million, and the annual number of merchants increased significantly to 14.5 million.<br>-The average user purchase frequency reached a new high.<br>-Total revenue in the fourth quarter increased by 20.1% year-on-year to 88.5 billion yuan.<br>-The core local commercial segment continued to maintain strong year-on-year revenue growth of 18.9% to 65.6 billion yuan.<br><br>[Q&A Essence]<br><br>Question 1: About AI strategy and related technology investment plans, and how can these be integrated into existing businesses to enhance competitiveness?<br><br>A:<br>1. Three-tier architecture of AI strategy:<br>AI at Work: Improve productivity and work experience for more than 100,000 employees.<br>-AI in Products: Upgrade existing products and services and launch new AI-native products.<br>-Self-developed large language model: Continue to invest in improving internal large language model capabilities.<br><br>2. Specific applications:<br>-Employee productivity: The self-developed large language model \"Totoro\" is combined with external models to develop efficient tools such as AI coding and intelligent meetings.<br>-Customer service: AI customer service efficiency has increased by more than 20%, and customer satisfaction has increased by 0.5 percentage points.<br>-Business operations: AI sales assistant supports BD team and significantly improves work efficiency.<br>-Technology development: 27% of new code is generated by AI coding assistants.<br><br>AI Native new products:<br>-It is planned to launch a more advanced AI assistant covering all services of Meituan this year.<br>-Leverage rich offline services and powerful instant delivery capabilities to meet users' needs in the digital and physical worlds.<br><br>4. Infrastructure investment:<br>-Give priority to ensuring the supply of GPU resources. Last year, we invested billions of yuan, and plan to further expand investment this year.<br>-The evaluation results of the self-developed large language model \"Totoro\" are comparable to top domestic models.<br><br>5. Combination of AI and robots:<br>-Apply AI to fields such as instant delivery, autonomous driving and logistics automation.<br>-Deepen cooperation with leading robotics and autonomous driving startups.<br><br>Question 2: About Kita's expansion plan in Saudi Arabia and overseas expansion strategy of other businesses?<br><br>A:<br>1. Kita's development in Saudi Arabia:<br>-Growth has been strong since its launch in Riyadh last October.<br>-It has now expanded to more than a dozen major cities in Saudi Arabia.<br><br>2. Overseas business focus:<br>-Currently focusing on food delivery business.<br>-It is planned to use the high-frequency traffic and distribution network established by take-out business to expand other services in the future.<br><br>3. Overseas investment in 2025:<br>-Will be significantly higher than 2024 to support the rapid growth of business scale and the increase of market share.<br>-At the same time, pay close attention to the return on investment and continue to improve efficiency.<br><br>4. Long-term overseas strategy:<br>-Learn from China's experience and develop other businesses on the basis of take-out business.<br>-Optimistic about the long-term development prospects and profitability of overseas markets.<br><br>Question 3: How to balance new business investment with shareholder return plan?<br><br>A:<br>1. New business investment strategy:<br>-Carefully evaluate each new business and flexibly adjust strategies.<br>-Ensure healthy growth of new business and achieve long-term financial goals.<br><br>2. Existing new business progress:<br>-Some businesses, such as catering supply chain, shared bicycles, pet foster care and shared power banks, have achieved market leadership and continued to improve efficiency.<br>-Meituan Preferred made major strategic adjustments last year, and its efficiency was significantly improved.<br><br>3. Meituan's preferred development focus:<br>-Reshape commodity-related capabilities and create differentiated advantages.<br>-The long-term goal is to achieve a profit margin comparable to that of offline retail channels.<br><br>4. Shareholder return plan:<br>-Continue to increase shareholder returns through share buybacks.<br>-First offset the dilution caused by employee options, and seize market opportunities to further reduce the number of outstanding shares.<br>-It is expected to repay approximately US $1.5 billion in convertible bonds and US $750 million in corporate bonds in 2025.<br><br>Question 4: What is the future growth strategy of food delivery business and the strategic focus of Meituan Flash Sale?<br><br>A:<br>1. Growth potential of instant delivery business:<br>-Management maintains confidence in the potential of the overall on-demand delivery business, including food and non-food.<br>-Continue to attract new users, especially young users. The initial purchase frequency and unit price of new users are higher than those of early user groups.<br>-Existing users use takeaway services in a wider range of scenarios and time periods.<br><br>2. Supply-side innovation:<br>-New supply modes such as spelling good rice attract consumer demand and improve the frequency of use and overall efficiency.<br><br>3. Meituan flash sale development:<br>-Maintain rapid growth, which is higher than that of food distribution.<br>-Continue to empower merchants and brands to operate online, and deepen cooperation with brand retailers.<br>-Strengthen the consumer mind of \"everything is there\".<br><br>4. Long-term goals:<br>-Maintain the vision and goal of exceeding 100 million orders per day for instant delivery business.<br><br>5. Ecosystem construction:<br>-Launch a merchant support plan with financial support of more than 1 billion yuan.<br>-It is planned to take the lead in launching rider social security pilot projects in some cities in the second quarter of 2025, and will be gradually promoted nationwide in the future.<br>-Strengthen food safety management and launch the \"Bright Kitchen and Bright Stove\" program.<br><br>Question 5: What is the competitive landscape of in-store hotel and travel business, the growth expectation of GTV, and the impact of \"God Membership\" on this business?<br><br>A:<br>1. In-store business growth expectation:<br>-Despite the rapid growth of GTV in the past two years, management expects the growth momentum to remain strong in the next few years.<br>-The online penetration rate of in-store categories is still low compared with e-commerce of physical goods, and the company will continue to promote online penetration and consolidate its competitive advantage.<br><br>2. The impact of \"God Membership\" on in-store hotel and travel business:<br>-The \"God Membership\" program has a positive impact on the in-store hotel and travel business, but the specific data has not been disclosed.<br>-The company is upgrading \"God Member\" to \"Meituan Member\", which is expected to further strengthen user stickiness and cross-category synergy.<br><br>Through the above questions and answers, investors can have a clearer understanding of Meituan's latest progress and future plans in AI strategy, overseas expansion, core business development, and shareholder returns. While maintaining steady growth in its core business, the company actively deploys AI technology and overseas markets to lay the foundation for long-term development.<br><br>Disclaimer: The express content of this performance meeting is generated by artificial intelligence and is for reference only. There may be inaccuracies due to technical limitations and does not constitute any investment advice or commitment.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"83690":"美团-WR","MPNGY":"美团ADR","03690":"美团-W"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1187115017","content_text":"【业绩亮点和展望】- 2024年全年总收入同比增长22%至3376亿元人民币。- 年度交易用户超过7.7亿，年度商户数量显著增加至1450万。- 平均用户购买频率创新高。- 第四季度总收入同比增长20.1%至885亿元人民币。- 核心本地商业分部继续保持强劲的同比收入增长18.9%，达到656亿元人民币。【问答精华】问题1：关于AI战略和相关技术投资计划，以及如何将这些整合到现有业务中以增强竞争力？答：1. AI战略三层架构：   - AI at Work：提高10万多名员工的生产力和工作体验。   - AI in Products：升级现有产品服务，推出全新AI原生产品。   - 自研大语言模型：持续投资提升内部大语言模型能力。2. 具体应用：   - 员工生产力：自研大语言模型\"龙猫\"与外部模型结合，开发高效工具如AI编码、智能会议等。   - 客户服务：AI客服效率提升20%以上，客户满意度提高0.5个百分点。   - 业务运营：AI销售助手支持BD团队，显著提高工作效率。   - 技术开发：27%的新代码由AI编码助手生成。3. AI原生新产品：   - 计划今年推出覆盖美团所有服务的更先进AI助手。   - 利用丰富的线下服务和强大的即时配送能力，满足用户在数字和物理世界的需求。4. 基础设施投资：   - 优先保证GPU资源供应，去年投资数十亿元，今年计划进一步扩大投资。   - 自研大语言模型\"龙猫\"评估结果可比肩国内顶级模型。5. AI与机器人结合：   - 将AI应用于即时配送、自动驾驶和物流自动化等领域。   - 与领先机器人和自动驾驶初创公司深化合作。问题2：关于吉他(Kita)在沙特阿拉伯的扩张计划及其他业务的海外扩张战略？答：1. Kita在沙特的发展：   - 自去年10月在利雅得推出以来，增长势头强劲。   - 目前已扩展到沙特阿拉伯十几个主要城市。2. 海外业务重点：   - 当前专注于外卖配送业务。   - 计划利用外卖业务建立的高频流量和配送网络，未来拓展其他服务。3. 2025年海外投资：   - 将显著高于2024年，以支持业务规模快速增长和市场份额提升。   - 同时密切关注投资回报，持续提高效率。4. 长期海外战略：   - 借鉴中国经验，在外卖业务基础上发展其他业务。   - 看好海外市场的长期发展前景和盈利能力。问题3：如何平衡新业务投资与股东回报计划？答：1. 新业务投资策略：   - 审慎评估每项新业务，灵活调整策略。   - 确保新业务健康增长，实现长期财务目标。2. 现有新业务进展：   - 部分业务如餐饮供应链、共享单车、宠物寄养和共享充电宝已实现市场领先地位，持续提升效率。   - 美团优选去年进行重大战略调整，效率显著提升。3. 美团优选发展重点：   - 重塑商品相关能力，打造差异化优势。   - 长期目标是实现与线下零售渠道相当的利润率。4. 股东回报计划：   - 继续通过股票回购增加股东回报。   - 首先抵消员工期权造成的稀释，并把握市场机会进一步减少流通股数量。   - 2025年预计偿还约15亿美元可转换债券和7.5亿美元公司债券。问题4：食品配送业务的未来增长战略和美团闪购的战略重点？答：1. 即时配送业务增长潜力：   - 管理层对整体即时配送业务（包括食品和非食品）的潜力保持信心。   - 继续吸引新用户，特别是年轻用户，新用户的初始购买频率和客单价高于早期用户群。   - 现有用户在更广泛的场景和时间段使用外卖服务。2. 供给侧创新：   - 拼好饭等新供给模式吸引消费需求，提高使用频率和整体效率。3. 美团闪购发展：   - 保持快速增长，增速高于食品配送。   - 持续赋能商户和品牌线上运营，深化与品牌零售商的合作。   - 强化\"万物即到\"的消费者心智。4. 长期目标：   - 维持即时配送业务日单量超过1亿单的愿景和目标。5. 生态系统建设：   - 推出10亿元以上资金支持的商户扶持计划。   - 计划在2025年第二季度在部分城市率先推出骑手社保试点项目，未来将逐步全国推广。   - 加强食品安全管理，推出\"明厨亮灶\"计划。问题5：到店酒旅业务的竞争格局、GTV增长预期，以及\"神会员\"对该业务的影响？答：1. 到店业务增长预期：   - 尽管过去两年GTV增长迅速，管理层预计未来几年增长势头仍将保持强劲。   - 到店品类的线上渗透率与实物商品电商相比仍然较低，公司将继续推动线上渗透并巩固竞争优势。2. \"神会员\"对到店酒旅业务的影响：   - \"神会员\"计划对到店酒旅业务产生积极影响，但具体数据未披露。   - 公司正在将\"神会员\"升级为\"美团会员\"，预计将进一步加强用户粘性和跨品类协同效应。通过以上问答，投资者可以更清晰地了解美团在AI战略、海外扩张、核心业务发展以及股东回报等方面的最新进展和未来规划。公司在保持核心业务稳健增长的同时，积极布局AI技术和海外市场，为长期发展奠定基础。声明：本业绩会速递内容由人工智能生成，仅供参考，因技术所限可能存在不准确之处，不构成任何投资建议或承诺。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"83690":1,"MPNGY":1,"03690":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2039,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":423308508078168,"gmtCreate":1744354648058,"gmtModify":1744354653368,"author":{"id":"4100931252200150","authorId":"4100931252200150","name":"singsongone 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新加坡的製造業、運輸、批發貿易、金融服務等對外依賴度極高，一旦全球貿易鏈出現阻滯，首先受傷的就是這些“外向型”板塊。特別是半導體與精密工程行業，若全球企業削減開支，訂單縮減是難以避免的。STI指數中權重較高的出口導向企業，如Keppel、Yangzijiang、Sembcorp等，短期波動在所難免。 不過政府反應算是快。成立特別工作組介入、協助企業轉型、鼓勵數字化和區域多元化發展，這種“軟着陸”策略比起硬碰硬地加徵反制關稅，我個人認爲更具現實意義。新加坡作爲小型開放經濟體，搞“貿易戰”代價太高，不如打持久戰，找新市場、拼效率，纔是長期出路。 從資產配置角度來看，我會更加傾向於防守型領域，比如銀行、REITs和物流資產。銀行受利率與信貸質量影響較大，但當前本地銀行估值不高、分紅穩健，是動盪環境下的壓艙石。REITs方面，若通脹溫和回落、利率見頂，反而有利於估值修復，尤其是物流與工業類REITs。但零售和高端寫字樓REITs可能面對外資流入放緩、消費降溫等雙重壓力。 總結來看，美國關稅短期衝擊不可小覷，但新加坡政府採取的是“減震式管理”，而非硬碰硬。如果我是決策者，我也會選擇先以穩爲主、少對抗，畢竟靈活生存比“逞一時之勇”更重要。中長期來看，反制關稅並不一定帶來更大好處，反而可能引發連鎖反應，得不償失。STI未來走勢，可能會更受宏觀環境和本地政策彈性所影響，維持謹慎偏中性看法。","listText":"美國揮出關稅這張“老牌殺手鐗”，對以出口導向爲核心的新加坡來說，確實是場不小的挑戰。尤其是在全球增長本就疲軟的背景下，這一波動作可能成爲壓垮外需的又一根稻草。 新加坡的製造業、運輸、批發貿易、金融服務等對外依賴度極高，一旦全球貿易鏈出現阻滯，首先受傷的就是這些“外向型”板塊。特別是半導體與精密工程行業，若全球企業削減開支，訂單縮減是難以避免的。STI指數中權重較高的出口導向企業，如Keppel、Yangzijiang、Sembcorp等，短期波動在所難免。 不過政府反應算是快。成立特別工作組介入、協助企業轉型、鼓勵數字化和區域多元化發展，這種“軟着陸”策略比起硬碰硬地加徵反制關稅，我個人認爲更具現實意義。新加坡作爲小型開放經濟體，搞“貿易戰”代價太高，不如打持久戰，找新市場、拼效率，纔是長期出路。 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Haha","text":"Why so many smily face? Haha","html":"Why so many smily face? Haha"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":509598537679328,"gmtCreate":1765445218974,"gmtModify":1765445223234,"author":{"id":"4100931252200150","authorId":"4100931252200150","name":"singsongone 10","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/462ccef18f89d947590655a7c54754d7","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4100931252200150","authorIdStr":"4100931252200150"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/NIO.SI\">$NIO Inc. USD OV(NIO.SI)$&nbsp;</a><a href=\"https://ttm.financial/U/10000000000011061\">@Trade Feed Decoder</a>","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/NIO.SI\">$NIO Inc. USD OV(NIO.SI)$&nbsp;</a><a href=\"https://ttm.financial/U/10000000000011061\">@Trade Feed Decoder</a>","text":"$NIO Inc. USD OV(NIO.SI)$ @Trade Feed Decoder","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":23,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":7,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/509598537679328","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1019,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":368441429708864,"gmtCreate":1730969272847,"gmtModify":1731318236157,"author":{"id":"4100931252200150","authorId":"4100931252200150","name":"singsongone 10","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/462ccef18f89d947590655a7c54754d7","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4100931252200150","authorIdStr":"4100931252200150"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/BHP.AU\">$BHP GROUP LTD(BHP.AU)$</a>[财迷][财迷][财迷]","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/BHP.AU\">$BHP GROUP LTD(BHP.AU)$</a>[财迷][财迷][财迷]","text":"$BHP GROUP 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href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/01810\">$XIAOMI-W(01810)$&nbsp;</a>来看看我最新分享的订单！<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/U/10000000000011061\">@Trade Feed Decoder</a>","text":"$XIAOMI-W(01810)$ 来看看我最新分享的订单！@Trade Feed Decoder","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":3,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/477114362343424","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1874,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":299346774257728,"gmtCreate":1714108834910,"gmtModify":1714108838979,"author":{"id":"4100931252200150","authorId":"4100931252200150","name":"singsongone 10","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/462ccef18f89d947590655a7c54754d7","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4100931252200150","authorIdStr":"4100931252200150"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Bro you must earn a lot on <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/GOOG\"> $Alphabet(GOOG)$ </a> [Miser] 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The short-term correction is mainly driven by emotional and technical factors, while the core supporting logic of global stagflation, order chaos, and monetization of the US deficit remains unchanged. Looking forward to 2026, when the market's pricing logic of \"AI unknown\" has not changed, the lack of order is still a favorable environment for gold. When the AI bubble and gold form a \"dumbbell\", gold, as the insurance of AI positions, has realized the value of the highlight moment. As a narrative asset that has both \"gold-like\" attributes and is related to AI power, silver has higher flexibility in stages. But once the AI narrative becomes clear, the highlight moment of gold may come to an end, and the silver narrative of \"benefiting from both ends\" may also return to rationality.</p><p>Sinolink Securities's main views are as follows:</p><p><strong>Taking history as a mirror, is gold \"overrising\" at present?</strong></p><p><strong>1. Looking back at the history of gold prices, the stages with strong reference are World War II and the 1970s</strong></p><p>After the stock market crash in 1929, the United States fell into the Great Depression, and the people's run on gold brought the banking system to the brink of collapse. Under the gold standard, dollar issuance must be linked to gold reserves, which limits the government's ability to solve problems by issuing currency, and banks collapse in large numbers.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/603883\">Common people</a>Large unemployment. Therefore, after Roosevelt's New Deal in 1933, it was announced that all banks in the country must stop gold trading and nationalize gold.</p><p>After the outbreak of World War II, the United States officially entered the war, the fiscal deficit ratio of the United States once rose to 27%, and the Federal Reserve stabilized the latter's market interest rate by purchasing unlimited Treasury bills. As a result of this measure, from August 1939 to August 1948, the aggregate monetary base of the United States increased by 149%. Meanwhile, dollar-denominated gold rose 123% over the same period.</p><p>During the Bretton Woods system, the price of gold was fixed at $35/oz. However, after World War II, the U.S. economy took off, and international trade was settled in U.S. dollars. Due to the continuous expansion of the economy, there were more and more U.S. dollars, which led to the rapid increase of inflation in the United States, and the balance of payments continued to be in deficit, which had to rely on the issuance of currency to make up for it. As a result, inflation further intensified, and the credit of the U.S. dollar once faced the collapse.</p><p>Since the 1970s, the world has started to run on gold, and the gold reserves of the United States have decreased. The United States is worried that it will not be able to continue to support the exchange commitment between the US dollar and gold. The Brinton Woods system collapsed, and the price of gold once again changed from a fixed price to a floating price. From 1973 to 1980, gold soared from $35 to $850, a 24-fold increase. It wasn't until the violent Volcker-era rate hike in 1980 that gold really peaked.</p><p><strong>2. In the first decade of the 21st century, gold ushered in a new round of bull market</strong></p><p>Behind it is the catalysis of a series of events such as the \"911\" incident, inflation after the rapid economic development of the United States, the global financial crisis, and the European debt crisis. With the suppression of the European debt crisis and the gradual recovery of the U.S. economy, gold fell into a five-year bear market after 2011.</p><p>In the 17 years since the outbreak of the financial crisis, the average annual federal fiscal deficit ratio in the United States has reached 6.3%. Even excluding 2020 and 2021 in the epidemic environment, the average deficit ratio is as high as 5.4%, much higher than the 1950s to before the financial crisis. The average level is 1.7%, and the economic growth model with fiscal overdraft as the core driving force is the core reason for the continued depreciation of the US dollar relative to gold. After the Russia-Ukraine crisis in 2022, the technical default of the United States on Russia's US $300 billion foreign reserves marks a new stage of decline in the credit and influence of the US dollar. Represented by the People's Bank of China, it has reduced its holdings of US debt while hoarding gold substantially.</p><p><strong>3. There is no significant sign of overrising in this round of gold bull market</strong></p><p>If the United States started deficit monetization in 2008 as a starting point, the price of gold has increased 5.7 times so far; If we take the technical default of the United States on Russia's foreign exchange reserves in 2022 as a starting point, the price of gold has increased 2.4 times so far. Compared with the 24-fold increase in gold prices in the 1970s, there is no sign of significant overrise in this round of gold bull market.</p><p>The opposite of gold is the credit of the US dollar. In the long run, the rising trend of gold prices is positively correlated with the size of US debt. According to the forecast of the U.S. Congressional Budget Office (CBO), by 2035, the ratio of the total U.S. federal debt held by the public to U.S. GDP will rise from 97.8% in 2025 to 118.5%, exceeding the high point at the end of World War II. Against this background, there is still room for imagination in the gold bull market. Unless in this process, AI technology can bring about an overall increase in productivity in various industries from the organizational and structural levels, and lead the United States out of stagflation and improve economic and fiscal efficiency, then it is a signal of the end of the gold bull market.</p><p><strong>From the financial level, is the process of increasing gold purchases by the central bank and the market coming to an end?</strong></p><p><strong>1. Central bank gold purchases: the pace slows down rather than ends</strong></p><p>Against the background of global political multipolarization, the decline of the geopolitical influence of the United States, and the increasing debt vigilance of developed economies such as the United States and Europe, geopolitical powers (China, Russia, India, etc.), traditional neutral countries (Singapore, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, etc.) and Russia-Ukraine frontier countries (Poland, Hungary, etc.) have gradually increased their gold reserves in the past three years. The proportion of \"central bank gold purchases\" in gold investment demand once rose from 15% in the first quarter of 2022 to a high of 54% in the fourth quarter of 2024.</p><p>Even though it has significantly increased its holdings for three consecutive years, global central banks are still underweighting gold. According to World Bank data, gold reserves will account for about 22% of global central bank reserves in 2024, an increase of 7 percentage points from three years ago, but there is still a gap compared with important geopolitical turning points in history. This value was 29% at the end of the Cold War in 1990 and 58% at the end of the Great Stagflation in 1980. If the proportion of gold reserves held by the central bank returns to the level of 1990, there is still room for improvement of 7%, corresponding to about 3,400 tons of gold purchase demand.</p><p>According to the results of the World Gold Council's survey of central bank gold reserves in 2025, 76% of the central banks surveyed said that the proportion of gold reserves will continue to \"moderately rise\" in the next five years (46% in 2022, 62% in 2023, 69% in 2024), the performance of gold in times of crisis, portfolio diversification, and the demand to hedge against inflation are the core reasons for them to increase their holdings of gold.</p><p>Sinolink Securities believes that under the depreciation transaction of the fading credit of the US dollar, the revaluation of gold, as a scarce monetary asset without sovereign credit endorsement, is hard to end, and the price of gold has \"lost its anchor\". During this process, the central bank's demand for gold purchases has not weakened. Although the amount of gold purchases in the short term is not as frenzied as market funds, it will become an important gold price chassis force. When the gold price makes a technical correction, the gold purchase expectation of the central bank and sovereign funds will restrict the space and sustainability of the correction.</p><p><strong>2. Market funds: The demand for combination optimization and the demand for hedging AI narrative are still there</strong></p><p>For investment institutions, the long-term value of gold lies in its low pullback/retracement and low correlation with traditional stock and bond assets. It is an indispensable hedging tool in large asset allocation portfolios.</p><p>Although major asset allocation portfolios such as risk parity strategy portfolio and Markowitz-mean variance strategy portfolio already have certain exposure to gold, there are still some non-institutional investors and traditional stock-bond strategy portfolios that have not been involved in gold, because in the past For a long time, stock-bond hedging was effective, and bonds were enough to disperse the volatility risk of U.S. stocks. In the 40 years before 2022, the world as a whole has experienced a dividend era of falling interest rates and cooperation among superpowers. Especially after 2008, major central banks such as the United States, Europe, and Japan have maintained extremely loose monetary policies for many years. But since 2022, factors such as the global pandemic, Western populist politics, interest rate and inflation environment have caused great changes in global financial markets.</p><p>A persistent high inflationary environment will largely undermine the value of government bonds as a portfolio diversification tool. Nearly 50 years of historical experience shows that when the core inflation level in the United States is lower than 2.5%, the correlation between U.S. stocks and U.S. bonds is generally negative (that is, simultaneous allocation of stocks and bonds can effectively diversify risks), but when the core inflation is higher At 2.5%, this stock-bond hedge is on the verge of failure. This year, the positive correlation between U.S. stocks and bonds is still near the high level in the past 27 years, highlighting the necessity of alternative assets as diversified allocation tools. Given its historically low correlation with many traditional asset classes, a strategic allocation to gold can help improve the yield-risk price-performance ratio of various portfolios across a variety of market cycles. Global gold ETF holdings have increased by 20% in the past year, and strong investment demand may not only price in expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, but also signal that traditional portfolio strategies are changing.</p><p>For trading funds, the demand for gold holdings still exists. On the one hand, the Fed's interest rate cut cycle has not yet finished, and the market pricing will still cut interest rates 2-3 times next year. The expectation of a downward trend in real interest rates may drive market funds represented by gold ETFs to buy. On the other hand, the dumbbell strategy of \"long AI + long gold\" is a two-end bet on the next stage of the U.S. national fortune. When the AI bubble reaches the second half, the \"hedging\" attribute of gold is expected to increase.</p><p><strong>Gold: Current Pricing Perspective of Monetary Credit VS Price Comparison Perspective with U.S. Financial Assets</strong></p><p>Under the monetary credit system, if the global US dollar currency/global gold central bank reserves are used as the representative of global US dollar gold, then the US dollar credit implied by the current gold pricing of about US $4,000 an ounce is already lower than that of the Bretton Woods system in 1971. When the system collapsed. But if we look at it from another perspective, compared with financial assets in the United States, the current market value of gold/market value of stocks and bonds in the United States is just at a historical low near 1971.</p><p><strong>Risk warning:</strong>Data availability is limited, and there is a lag in public data; The pace of AI commercialization is accelerating, recharging US dollar credit; The understanding of the reconstruction of the international order is biased.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"stock_zhitongcaijing","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Sinolink Securities: After the highest single-year increase in the past 46 years, how do you view the trend of gold?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSinolink Securities: After the highest single-year increase in the past 46 years, how do you view the trend of gold?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">智通财经</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2026-01-04 07:16</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600109\">Sinolink Securities</a>According to a research report released, although the pace of central bank gold purchases will slow down in 2025, the influx of speculative funds will push gold prices higher. The short-term correction is mainly driven by emotional and technical factors, while the core supporting logic of global stagflation, order chaos, and monetization of the US deficit remains unchanged. Looking forward to 2026, when the market's pricing logic of \"AI unknown\" has not changed, the lack of order is still a favorable environment for gold. When the AI bubble and gold form a \"dumbbell\", gold, as the insurance of AI positions, has realized the value of the highlight moment. As a narrative asset that has both \"gold-like\" attributes and is related to AI power, silver has higher flexibility in stages. But once the AI narrative becomes clear, the highlight moment of gold may come to an end, and the silver narrative of \"benefiting from both ends\" may also return to rationality.</p><p>Sinolink Securities's main views are as follows:</p><p><strong>Taking history as a mirror, is gold \"overrising\" at present?</strong></p><p><strong>1. Looking back at the history of gold prices, the stages with strong reference are World War II and the 1970s</strong></p><p>After the stock market crash in 1929, the United States fell into the Great Depression, and the people's run on gold brought the banking system to the brink of collapse. Under the gold standard, dollar issuance must be linked to gold reserves, which limits the government's ability to solve problems by issuing currency, and banks collapse in large numbers.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/603883\">Common people</a>Large unemployment. Therefore, after Roosevelt's New Deal in 1933, it was announced that all banks in the country must stop gold trading and nationalize gold.</p><p>After the outbreak of World War II, the United States officially entered the war, the fiscal deficit ratio of the United States once rose to 27%, and the Federal Reserve stabilized the latter's market interest rate by purchasing unlimited Treasury bills. As a result of this measure, from August 1939 to August 1948, the aggregate monetary base of the United States increased by 149%. Meanwhile, dollar-denominated gold rose 123% over the same period.</p><p>During the Bretton Woods system, the price of gold was fixed at $35/oz. However, after World War II, the U.S. economy took off, and international trade was settled in U.S. dollars. Due to the continuous expansion of the economy, there were more and more U.S. dollars, which led to the rapid increase of inflation in the United States, and the balance of payments continued to be in deficit, which had to rely on the issuance of currency to make up for it. As a result, inflation further intensified, and the credit of the U.S. dollar once faced the collapse.</p><p>Since the 1970s, the world has started to run on gold, and the gold reserves of the United States have decreased. The United States is worried that it will not be able to continue to support the exchange commitment between the US dollar and gold. The Brinton Woods system collapsed, and the price of gold once again changed from a fixed price to a floating price. From 1973 to 1980, gold soared from $35 to $850, a 24-fold increase. It wasn't until the violent Volcker-era rate hike in 1980 that gold really peaked.</p><p><strong>2. In the first decade of the 21st century, gold ushered in a new round of bull market</strong></p><p>Behind it is the catalysis of a series of events such as the \"911\" incident, inflation after the rapid economic development of the United States, the global financial crisis, and the European debt crisis. With the suppression of the European debt crisis and the gradual recovery of the U.S. economy, gold fell into a five-year bear market after 2011.</p><p>In the 17 years since the outbreak of the financial crisis, the average annual federal fiscal deficit ratio in the United States has reached 6.3%. Even excluding 2020 and 2021 in the epidemic environment, the average deficit ratio is as high as 5.4%, much higher than the 1950s to before the financial crisis. The average level is 1.7%, and the economic growth model with fiscal overdraft as the core driving force is the core reason for the continued depreciation of the US dollar relative to gold. After the Russia-Ukraine crisis in 2022, the technical default of the United States on Russia's US $300 billion foreign reserves marks a new stage of decline in the credit and influence of the US dollar. Represented by the People's Bank of China, it has reduced its holdings of US debt while hoarding gold substantially.</p><p><strong>3. There is no significant sign of overrising in this round of gold bull market</strong></p><p>If the United States started deficit monetization in 2008 as a starting point, the price of gold has increased 5.7 times so far; If we take the technical default of the United States on Russia's foreign exchange reserves in 2022 as a starting point, the price of gold has increased 2.4 times so far. Compared with the 24-fold increase in gold prices in the 1970s, there is no sign of significant overrise in this round of gold bull market.</p><p>The opposite of gold is the credit of the US dollar. In the long run, the rising trend of gold prices is positively correlated with the size of US debt. According to the forecast of the U.S. Congressional Budget Office (CBO), by 2035, the ratio of the total U.S. federal debt held by the public to U.S. GDP will rise from 97.8% in 2025 to 118.5%, exceeding the high point at the end of World War II. Against this background, there is still room for imagination in the gold bull market. Unless in this process, AI technology can bring about an overall increase in productivity in various industries from the organizational and structural levels, and lead the United States out of stagflation and improve economic and fiscal efficiency, then it is a signal of the end of the gold bull market.</p><p><strong>From the financial level, is the process of increasing gold purchases by the central bank and the market coming to an end?</strong></p><p><strong>1. Central bank gold purchases: the pace slows down rather than ends</strong></p><p>Against the background of global political multipolarization, the decline of the geopolitical influence of the United States, and the increasing debt vigilance of developed economies such as the United States and Europe, geopolitical powers (China, Russia, India, etc.), traditional neutral countries (Singapore, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, etc.) and Russia-Ukraine frontier countries (Poland, Hungary, etc.) have gradually increased their gold reserves in the past three years. The proportion of \"central bank gold purchases\" in gold investment demand once rose from 15% in the first quarter of 2022 to a high of 54% in the fourth quarter of 2024.</p><p>Even though it has significantly increased its holdings for three consecutive years, global central banks are still underweighting gold. According to World Bank data, gold reserves will account for about 22% of global central bank reserves in 2024, an increase of 7 percentage points from three years ago, but there is still a gap compared with important geopolitical turning points in history. This value was 29% at the end of the Cold War in 1990 and 58% at the end of the Great Stagflation in 1980. If the proportion of gold reserves held by the central bank returns to the level of 1990, there is still room for improvement of 7%, corresponding to about 3,400 tons of gold purchase demand.</p><p>According to the results of the World Gold Council's survey of central bank gold reserves in 2025, 76% of the central banks surveyed said that the proportion of gold reserves will continue to \"moderately rise\" in the next five years (46% in 2022, 62% in 2023, 69% in 2024), the performance of gold in times of crisis, portfolio diversification, and the demand to hedge against inflation are the core reasons for them to increase their holdings of gold.</p><p>Sinolink Securities believes that under the depreciation transaction of the fading credit of the US dollar, the revaluation of gold, as a scarce monetary asset without sovereign credit endorsement, is hard to end, and the price of gold has \"lost its anchor\". During this process, the central bank's demand for gold purchases has not weakened. Although the amount of gold purchases in the short term is not as frenzied as market funds, it will become an important gold price chassis force. When the gold price makes a technical correction, the gold purchase expectation of the central bank and sovereign funds will restrict the space and sustainability of the correction.</p><p><strong>2. Market funds: The demand for combination optimization and the demand for hedging AI narrative are still there</strong></p><p>For investment institutions, the long-term value of gold lies in its low pullback/retracement and low correlation with traditional stock and bond assets. It is an indispensable hedging tool in large asset allocation portfolios.</p><p>Although major asset allocation portfolios such as risk parity strategy portfolio and Markowitz-mean variance strategy portfolio already have certain exposure to gold, there are still some non-institutional investors and traditional stock-bond strategy portfolios that have not been involved in gold, because in the past For a long time, stock-bond hedging was effective, and bonds were enough to disperse the volatility risk of U.S. stocks. In the 40 years before 2022, the world as a whole has experienced a dividend era of falling interest rates and cooperation among superpowers. Especially after 2008, major central banks such as the United States, Europe, and Japan have maintained extremely loose monetary policies for many years. But since 2022, factors such as the global pandemic, Western populist politics, interest rate and inflation environment have caused great changes in global financial markets.</p><p>A persistent high inflationary environment will largely undermine the value of government bonds as a portfolio diversification tool. Nearly 50 years of historical experience shows that when the core inflation level in the United States is lower than 2.5%, the correlation between U.S. stocks and U.S. bonds is generally negative (that is, simultaneous allocation of stocks and bonds can effectively diversify risks), but when the core inflation is higher At 2.5%, this stock-bond hedge is on the verge of failure. This year, the positive correlation between U.S. stocks and bonds is still near the high level in the past 27 years, highlighting the necessity of alternative assets as diversified allocation tools. Given its historically low correlation with many traditional asset classes, a strategic allocation to gold can help improve the yield-risk price-performance ratio of various portfolios across a variety of market cycles. Global gold ETF holdings have increased by 20% in the past year, and strong investment demand may not only price in expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, but also signal that traditional portfolio strategies are changing.</p><p>For trading funds, the demand for gold holdings still exists. On the one hand, the Fed's interest rate cut cycle has not yet finished, and the market pricing will still cut interest rates 2-3 times next year. The expectation of a downward trend in real interest rates may drive market funds represented by gold ETFs to buy. On the other hand, the dumbbell strategy of \"long AI + long gold\" is a two-end bet on the next stage of the U.S. national fortune. When the AI bubble reaches the second half, the \"hedging\" attribute of gold is expected to increase.</p><p><strong>Gold: Current Pricing Perspective of Monetary Credit VS Price Comparison Perspective with U.S. Financial Assets</strong></p><p>Under the monetary credit system, if the global US dollar currency/global gold central bank reserves are used as the representative of global US dollar gold, then the US dollar credit implied by the current gold pricing of about US $4,000 an ounce is already lower than that of the Bretton Woods system in 1971. When the system collapsed. But if we look at it from another perspective, compared with financial assets in the United States, the current market value of gold/market value of stocks and bonds in the United States is just at a historical low near 1971.</p><p><strong>Risk warning:</strong>Data availability is limited, and there is a lag in public data; The pace of AI commercialization is accelerating, recharging US dollar credit; The understanding of the reconstruction of the international order is biased.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1388299.html\">智通财经</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4be30a3c11bd91e9d1f864c6a098fab1","relate_stocks":{"BK0012":"证金概念","BK0028":"国家队","BK0201":"可转债","BK0183":"MSCI概念","BK0276":"资本市场","BK0188":"融资融券"},"source_url":"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1388299.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2600017238","content_text":"国金证券发布研究报告称，尽管2025年内央行购金节奏放缓，但投机资金涌入推动金价走高，短期回调主要受情绪和技术性因素驱动，而全球滞胀、秩序混沌、美国赤字货币化的核心支撑逻辑未变。展望2026，当市场对“AI未知”这一定价逻辑尚未改变时，缺乏秩序仍是黄金的有利环境。当AI泡沫与黄金构成“哑铃”，黄金作为AI持仓的保险已实现了高光时刻的价值。白银作为既有“类黄金”属性又与AI电力相关的叙事资产，具备阶段性更高的弹性。但一旦AI叙事变得清晰，黄金的高光时刻或落幕，届时“两头受益”的白银叙事可能也会回归理性。国金证券主要观点如下：以史为鉴，当前黄金“超涨”了吗?一、回顾黄金价格的历史，具备较强参考性的阶段分别是二战时期和上世纪70年代1929年股市崩盘后，美国陷入经济大萧条，民众挤兑黄金导致银行体系濒临崩溃。金本位制下美元发行必须与黄金储备挂钩，这限制了政府通过发行货币来解决问题的能力，银行大批倒闭，老百姓大量失业。因此1933年美国罗斯福新政后，宣布全国所有银行必须停止黄金交易，将黄金收归国有。二战爆发美国正式参战后，美国财政赤字率一度升至27%，美联储通过无上限的国库券购买，稳定后者的市场利率。这一措施的结果是，从1939年8月至1948年8月，美国基础货币总量增长了149%。与此同时，以美元计价的黄金在同期上涨了123%。布雷顿森林体系时期，黄金价格被固定为35美元/盎司。但二战后美国经济腾飞，国际贸易又以美元结算，受到经济的不断扩张，美元是越来越多，导致美国的通货膨胀急速加剧，国际收支持续逆差，又不得不依靠发行货币来弥补，导致通货膨胀进一步加剧，美元信用一度面临崩塌。70年代起全球开始挤兑黄金，美国黄金储备减少，美国担忧无法继续支撑美元与黄金的兑换承诺。布林顿森林体系崩溃，金价再度由固定价格变成浮动价格。1973年-1980年，黄金从35美元一路飙升到850美元，翻了24倍。直到1980年沃尔克时代暴力加息，黄金才真正见顶。二、21世纪的第一个十年，黄金迎来新一轮牛市背后是“911”事件、美国经济高速发展后陷入通货膨胀、全球金融危机、欧债危机等一系列事件的催化。随着欧债危机得到抑制、美国经济逐渐复苏，黄金在2011年后陷入5年熊市。金融危机爆发至今的17年里，美国平均年度联邦财政赤字率达到6.3%，即使剔除疫情环境下的2020和2021年，平均赤字率也高达5.4%，远高于上世纪50年代至金融危机前的平均水平1.7%，以财政透支为核心驱动力的经济增长模式是美元相对于黄金持续贬值的核心原因。2022年俄乌危机后美国对于俄罗斯3000亿美元外储的技术性违约则标志着美元信用和影响力下降的新阶段，以中国央行为代表，一边减持美债一边大幅囤金。三、本轮黄金牛市并未有显著超涨的迹象若以2008年美国启动赤字货币化作为起点，迄今为止金价翻了5.7倍;若以2022年美国对俄罗斯外汇储备技术性违约作为起点，迄今为止金价翻了2.4倍。相较于上世纪70年代金价翻24倍的涨幅，本轮黄金牛市并未有显著超涨的迹象。黄金的对立面是美元信用，长期来看金价的上涨趋势与美国债务规模存在正相关性。据美国国会预算办公室(CBO)预测，到2035年，公众持有的美国联邦债务总量与美国GDP的比值将从2025年的97.8%上升至118.5%，超过二战结束时的高点，这一背景下黄金牛市仍有想象空间。除非这一过程中，出现了AI技术能够从组织和架构层面带来各行业生产率的全面提升，并带领美国重新走出滞胀、改善经济和财政效率，那么即是黄金牛市终止的信号。从资金层面，央行和市场增购黄金的进程是否快要走完?一、央行购金：节奏放缓而非结束在全球政治多极化、美国地缘影响力下降以及美欧等发达经济体债务警惕日益上升的背景下，地缘大国(中国、俄罗斯、印度等)、传统中立国(新加坡、沙特、卡塔尔等)及俄乌前沿地带国家(波兰、匈牙利等)在过去三年内逐步增加黄金储备。黄金投资需求中“央行购金”的占比从2022年一季度的15%，一度上升至2024年四季度的高点54%。即便已经连续三年显著增持，目前全球央行对黄金仍然偏低配。根据世界银行数据，2024年全球央行储备中黄金储备占比约为22%，较三年前上升了7个百分点，但相较于历史上重要的地缘政治格局转折点均仍有差距。1990年冷战末期时这一数值为29%，1980年大滞胀末期时为58%。央行持有黄金储备占比若回到1990年的水平，还有7%的提升空间，对应约3400吨的购金需求。2025年世界黄金协会对央行黄金储备的调查结果显示，76%的受访央行表示未来5年黄金储备占比将继续“温和上升(Moderately higher)”(2022年为46%，2023年为62%，2024年为69%)，黄金在危机时期的表现、组合多元化、以及对冲通胀的诉求是他们增持黄金最核心的理由。国金证券认为，美元信用褪色的贬值交易下，黄金作为稀缺的无主权信用背书的货币资产，价值重估难言结束，金价已经“失锚”。这一过程中，央行购金需求并未减弱，短期内购金量虽不及市场资金狂热，但会成为一股重要的金价底盘力量。当金价技术性回调时，央行和主权基金的购金预期将对回调空间和持续性产生约束。二、市场资金：组合优化需求与对冲AI叙事需求仍在对于投资机构而言，黄金的长期价值在于其回撤低、和传统股债资产间相关性低，是大类资产配置组合中不可或缺的对冲工具。虽然风险平价策略组合、马科维茨—均值方差策略组合等大类资产配置组合已具备一定的黄金敞口，但仍有一部分非机构类投资者和传统股债策略组合并未涉足黄金，因为过去相当长的时期内，股债对冲是有效的，债券足以分散美股的波动风险。2022年以前的40年里，全球整体都在经历了一个利率下降、超级大国之间以合作为主的红利时代，尤其是2008年之后美、欧、日等主要央行均维持极度宽松货币政策多年。但是自2022年以来，全球大流行、西方民粹主义政治、利率与通胀环境等因素使全球金融市场发生了极大的变化。持续的高通胀环境在很大程度上会削弱政府债券作为组合多元化工具的价值。近50年历史经验显示，当美国核心通胀水平低于2.5%时，美股美债之间的相关性大体上为负(即同时配置股+债便能有效分散风险)，但当核心通胀高于2.5%时，这种股债对冲濒临失效。今年美国股债的正相关性仍然处于近27年来的高位附近，凸显了另类资产作为多元化配置工具的必要性。鉴于黄金与许多传统资产类别的相关性历来较低，对黄金进行战略性配置有助于改善各种投资组合在各种市场周期中的收益风险性价比。过去一年里，全球黄金ETF持有量增长了20%，强劲的投资需求可能不仅在定价美联储降息预期，也是传统资产组合策略正在发生变革的信号。对于交易性资金而言，黄金的增持需求也仍然存在。一方面，美联储降息周期尚未走完，市场定价明年仍会落地2-3次降息，实际利率下行预期或驱动以黄金ETF为代表的市场资金买入。另一方面，“做多AI+做多黄金”的哑铃策略是对下一阶段美国国运的两头押注，当AI泡沫行至后半段，黄金的“对冲”属性有望增强。黄金：当前货币信用的定价视角 VS 与美国金融资产的比价视角在货币信用体系下，如果用全球美元货币/全球黄金央行储备量作为全球美元黄金的代表，那么当前4000美元左右一盎司的黄金定价所隐含的美元信用已经低于1971年布雷顿森林体系破灭之时。但如果换一个视角来看，与美国的金融资产比价，当前黄金市值/美国的股票和债券市值也刚好处于与1971年附近的历史低位。风险提示：数据可得性有限，公开数据存在滞后性;AI商业化节奏加快，为美元信用充值;对国际秩序重构的理解有偏差。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"XAUUSD.FOREX":2,"GCmain":2}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":14,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}