$NVDA$For January, the most reliable sell put strike is undoubtedly still 160. A large block trade opened, selling the January 30th 160 put $NVDA 20260130 160.0 PUT$ , with 36.9k contracts opened.On the call side, the January 16th 190 call $NVDA 20260116 190.0 CALL$  saw 30k contracts added in new opens, leaning towards the sell side, bringing total open interest to 100k contracts. The market message is that it will be difficult for the price to break above 190 before January 16th.However, referencing last January's price action, if the broader market does not correct after the New Year but maintains its current consolidation, given the scale of open in

$SPY$Theoretically, the market should consolidate sideways this week, then correct after positive news from the CES conference is digested.However, a large bearish spread order was opened on SPY: buying the 684 put and selling the 672 put $SPY 20260102 684.0 PUT$  $SPY 20260102 672.0 PUT$ . This implies a potential pullback to around 680 this week.Currently, the source disrupting market rhythm could potentially be precious metals.$SLV$Options activity on the Silver ETF suggests a clear short squeeze scenario. Front-month call options are being closed continuously, while front-month put options are seeing significant additions. However, a squeeze-driven ral

$SPY$It seems just one step away from 7000 points. The market continues its upward consolidation tonight. Based on options opening positions, 7000 points are not tonight's target, but we can hope for next week.Tonight's likely range is between 690 and 695. After rising to 700 next week, a pullback is possible.$NVDA$Institutions are selling the 192.5 call expiring next week $NVDA 20260102 192.5 CALL$  and buying the 197.5 call for hedging/arbitrage $NVDA 20260102 197.5 CALL$ . This suggests the stock price is expected to be below 192.5 next week.Overall long (call) opening data indicates a potential return to around 200 soon, especially with the CES con

$NVDA$For some reason, institutions have modest expectations for NVIDIA's Q1 performance. Long calls were rolled ahead of the CES conference:Closed 50,000 contracts of the Feb 170 call $NVDA 20260220 170.0 CALL$  and rolled into buying 50,000 contracts of the Mar 160 call $NVDA 20260320 160.0 CALL$ .Not only is the strike price lower, but the expiration is also extended. The only plausible reason seems to be a clear market aversion to the supply chain closely tied to OpenAI.The Jan 185 call $NVDA 20260116 185.0 CALL$  saw 45,000 contracts opened, with mixed buy/sell flow.During the s

$NVDA$Expected to trade within the $170–185 range this week. After breaking above $180 on positive news, $185 will likely remain a tough resistance. Consider selling calls: $NVDA 20251226 187.5 CALL$ . A pullback to $175 is possible; consider selling puts on the dip: $NVDA 20251226 170.0 PUT$ .There's market chatter that NVDA is currently "cheap." Cheap it may be, but the persistent put openings still seem to harbor hopes of a drop to $160, suggesting ongoing consolidation and position-clearing.$TSLA$Given Tesla's price action and Musk's known tendencies around holidays, I suspect a push to $500 on the 24th or 26th, followed by a pullback—with the 24th

$CRWV$Insider block buying continues with 23,000 contracts opened, pushing total open interest to 100,000 contracts $CRWV 20260320 100.0 CALL$ . News-wise, CRWV has been selected for the US Department of Energy's "Project Genesis" to support national-level AI research. The block buying preceded the news.Another stock with massive block opening is APLD, with 65,300 contracts of the 2028 8 call $APLD 20280121 8.0 CALL$  traded, with a total premium value of $119 million.$ORCL$The news of TikTok landing on Oracle has relieved the market, easing concerns about who would pick up the cloud services pieces if OpenAI were to collapse.The bullish expectation is f

$MU$Despite Micron's strong earnings and disciplined capital expenditure, the core issue remains: capital still believes AI monetization can't keep up with the burn rate and is beginning to exit revenue-less projects, curbing overheated market sentiment.The impact of $OWL$ withdrawing support for $ORCL$ project financing is significant. For a $10B project to be abandoned just like that, the investors must have seen something.Coupled with the fact that $FRMI$ lost a major client last week, causing its stock to halve, even the least sensitive observer should sense that something is amiss.So, while Micron claims its future performance will continue to be AI-driven, whether that driving force will accelerate expansion or stagnate and contract is anyone's guess.However, Micron's 2026 capacity i

$MU$There's a sense of marginal capacity rationalization in the AI sector. Smaller companies that previously benefited from the spillover demand are now being questioned on whether their orders will materialize, as the market perceives a slowdown in expansion from major AI players. The declines in many newer cloud companies are largely due to this reason.At its core, it's because the market believes AI isn't generating profits—at least not enough to support the massive expenditures.However, Micron doesn't fall into the category of those smaller companies described above. Therefore, its stock likely won't experience a severe post-earnings crash, probably holding above the recent low of $190.Options flow shows someone opened a bear put spread: selling the 215 put and buying the 195 put, anti

$TSLA$This week's 500 call has an open interest of 110k contracts, meaning Tesla will likely struggle to break above $500 this week. While this initially seemed ideal for selling calls, a massive block trade caught my eye: $TSLA 20260220 600.0 CALL$  – 10,000 contracts of the Feb 600 call traded, with a total premium of ~$11.34 million.While the exact catalyst is unknown, looking at Tesla's call flow, the mid-term 520 call $TSLA 20260130 520.0 CALL$  saw 9,704 contracts opened, mostly on the buy side.While $600 is uncertain, there's a strong probability Tesla reaches $500 by Christmas. For a conservative approach, consider selling the put:

$NVDA$Institutions are highly confident in this week's downward trend, having filled out spreads across the entire $181–191 strike range. As a result, unless NVDA stays suppressed below $179 this week, there's a low probability of a significant short squeeze rally back to $185.The more likely scenario is a pullback to $170 first, potentially even below, followed by a rebound. After all, this is triple witching week, with $170 and $160 puts as key targets for expiration pressure. The drop presents an excellent opportunity to sell puts, with strikes at $170 or $165: $NVDA 20251219 170.0 PUT$  $NVDA 20251219 165.0 PUT$ .$SPY$SPY is set to follow a pattern o

$AVGO$ earnings were the polar opposite of Oracle's. While the standard financial metrics were outstanding, the backlog fell short of expectations, and the stock still dropped.A lower-than-expected backlog could stem from various factors, but the market is leaning towards interpreting it as a slowdown in investment. The next question is why investment is slowing—AI is still figuring out its monetization path. In simple terms, because it's not yet profitable, the pace of cash burn is moderating.Considering Broadcom supplies the current U.S. AI leader, Google, if even the leader is being cautious, other players likely are too. Therefore, a market pullback seems inevitable.The consensus from put activity suggests the stock will stay above $350, but the market's sell put strike preference is a

$ORCL$If OpenAI's commercialization capabilities were truly outstanding, Oracle's stock would likely tell a very different story with the same earnings data. That's the takeaway from this earnings report.Therefore, whether Oracle is a dip-buying candidate depends heavily on the progress of OpenAI's commercialization, or the emergence of another giant with a killer product that declares current server capacity utterly insufficient, capturing market imagination as a potential future Oracle customer replacing OpenAI.On Thursday's open, someone bought 10,000 contracts of the weekly 190 call $ORCL 20251212 190.0 PUT$ , with timing precision that is astonishing.Additionally, just before Wednesday's close, a buyer picked up 100,

$NVDA$A large player positioned for the H200 news with an unusual in-the-money sell put: $NVDA 20260116 187.0 PUT$ . Premium volume was ~$10 million, with 9,483 contracts opened.Typically, selling in-the-money puts is done only with high conviction that the stock will be at or above the strike price at expiration. This aligns with the earlier judgment for the Dec-Jan period: limited upside, but also resilient downside.While the trade rationale is understandable, it's worth noting such an unconventional block doesn't necessarily come from a seasoned trader.Contradicting this flow are other put openings, which still anticipate a pullback below $180. However, this remains consistent with the overall $170–200 range view.The m

$NVDA$The answer in the headline is: the lower bound has improved significantly, and the upper bound has nudged slightly higher to 187.5.Due to the massive accumulation of open options positions in December and January, the next two months will primarily be characterized by range-bound trading—unless major positive catalysts emerge, like a breakthrough killer AI app that could lift the entire AI sector.In the absence of such a game-changing product, the expectation is for NVDA to oscillate between $160 and $200 until the January 16th expiration. The January 16th 200 call has an open interest of 159k contracts, and the January 19th 200 call has 106k. Under these conditions, the stock is unlikely to trade above $200.However, the positive news has significantly raised the strike prices for ne

$NVDA$The market has returned to recent highs, making the direction for the next three weeks uncertain again. In assessing market risk ahead of the FOMC, one notable signal is that 14k contracts of the long-dated 170 call $NVDA 20260220 170.0 CALL$  were reduced.It's uncommon for institutions to reduce long calls, but it doesn't necessarily imply a deep decline. It could also indicate an expectation for extended consolidation, which would erode the option's time value.Institutions selling calls this week chose the 187.5 strike $NVDA 20251212 187.5 CALL$ , hedging with the 195 call $NVDA 20251

$SPY$The biggest uncertainty before year-end is whether the market will pull back to 650. SPY put activity shows various strategies hedging for this scenario, e.g., buy $SPY 20251231 680.0 PUT$  sell $SPY 20251231 650.0 PUT$ .$NVDA$Next week is still expected to trade between $170–190, with potentially higher volatility than this week. For a straightforward approach, consider selling the 200 call $NVDA 20251219 200.0 CALL$ , or even a January expiry.Put activity also reflects significant uncertainty ahead of Christmas, which makes sense—if the stock can’t rally, it will likely move lower

$GOOGL$The broader market is likely to continue its rebound today, with SPY potentially reaching 688. However, not every stock will ride this wave—sector rotation is evident as year-end approaches.The rotation has turned against Google this time. Bears opened a position by buying 10,000 contracts of the Jan 9th 315 Put $GOOGL 20260109 315.0 PUT$ , with a total premium of approximately $12 million.Overall, excluding this put activity, Google's options flow still appears strong, suggesting a likely trading range between $315–325. However, following this significant bearish bet, while the stock may hold above $315 this week, the outlook beyond next week becomes less certain.$NVDA$Maintaining the view of a $180–185 trading r

$NVDA$Following Trump's hints about the Fed chair nominee last night, the market gapped up then sold off, printing a bearish upper wick. Interestingly, a significant number of puts were closed, including 28k contracts of this week's 165 put $NVDA 20251205 165.0 PUT$ , signaling shorts are backing off from an immediate assault.Notably, bearish news like OpenAI pausing ads to accelerate new models and Amazon's chip development challenging NVIDIA had little impact.The likely closing range for this week now looks like $180–185.$SPY$The immediate risk of a sharp drop to 650 has diminished. However, a pullback to 670 is still possible. Overall, the bias remains toward retesting the previous high around 689.$AAPL$Apple is leadin

$NVDA$Selling calls into strength remains suitable for the current setup, with strikes preferably above 190.Based on Monday's options flow, the probability of a pullback to 160 within the next month is quite high. The Dec 5th 165 put $NVDA 20251205 165.0 PUT$  saw 41k contracts opened. The overall delta was positive, indicating seller dominance, but such heavy open interest also creates downward pressure.A retest of 170 is possible this week. If considering selling puts, it's advisable to add a protective put leg or wait for an actual pullback before entering.Looking at the broader open interest, it will likely be difficult for NVDA to break above 200 before the Jan 16 monthly expiration. The two calls with the highest op