Tonight's price action says it all. The sell-off stems from a rumor about OpenAI's performance — specifically, that the company missed its internal revenue target for the first quarter. That's awkward. Competitors Google and Anthropic are both seeing growth. Only OpenAI is stagnating. If Google and Anthropic fail to deliver results this year, the US market would be looking at a crash far worse than tonight's move. All things considered, tonight's drop isn't that severe. This OpenAI revenue news is essentially a mini-earnings report. Barring surprises, we're likely to see this same dynamic repeat next quarter. On the flip side, we could also see a similar repeat of the Anthropic growth narrative. The biggest issue from OpenAI's miss: the company pre-booked massive data center capacity. If r

$Coinbase Global, Inc.(COIN)$ After a two-day plunge, the iv of COIN's January expiration options rose above 100%. The most active trading volume is in options expiring in the current week, because options become more expensive due to iv and are more suitable for sellers.It is worth noting that yesterday's call/put was still not low. Most call options are traded, and even buying call options is higher than selling call options. This situation may also be because the iv is too high and the put price is expensive, so institutions prefer to short sell call. However, around 4:00, some people bought puts expiring at 145 this week $COIN 20240105 145.0 PUT$The most trad

$NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$ Summarizing option flows across the semi space yields mixed signals - two bullish, one bearish. But looking at broader index flows, the bias seems tilted towards strength. Let's assume NVDA's earnings are unlikely to disappoint.With expected earnings move around 7.5% and ATM implied vol around 4.4%, calls look richly priced, so put selling is preferred. Any strike below 850 seems a safe zone.AMD: Large buy in the $AMD 20240524 175 CALL, clear bullish tiltSOXX: Large buy in the $SOXX 20240621 220 PUTS$, clear bearish viewSOXL: Large buy in the $SOXL 20240524 44.5 CALL$ , an aggressive bullish bet. Notably, this large buyer swept up calls right at Friday's intra

Every FOMC, people are always worried about being skewered by market events, so they are not so confident in the trading before the FOMC.But this time it was different. The institution had the answer first:sell $MSFT 20230519 310.0 PUT$10,000 lots of options, which means hundreds of millions of dollars of margin. When I saw the option change the only thing I thought was all in Microsoft. Microsoft reported earnings earlier, and they were surprisingly good. That being said, you don't have to be so aggressive and put the sell put at a lower strike price, like 280 or 260.I want to move on to the other stock observations of the week, which are somewhat subjective.I'm going to make an unpleasant judgment for a

Yesterday, Microsoft options change appeared consecutively several groups quite interesting strategy, once again gave a very clear guide to the recent trend of technology stocks is very instructive.There's good news and bad news for Microsoft's price action.Good news: Several institutions are somewhat bullish on Microsoft.Bad news: One institution is heavily bearish on Microsoft.You may be in a hurry to see why the opposite conclusion would be interesting, but hold on. The general split view is not enough for me to analyze. For example, some institutions have bought calls and some have bought puts. This divergence means that the institutions are split on the fundamentals, or that some of them know something they don't know. If that happens to be the case during earnings season, then for in