Jacob X
Jacob X
Made in JapanšŸ™, living in Australia šŸ¦˜. Long-term investor, focused on fundamentals.
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avatarJacob X
01-27
$SPDR S&P Semiconductor ETF(XSD)$   I don't think the sell-off in semiconductor names really changes the AI narrative at all. AI training costs are falling precipitously - something like 90% a year - so it is only natural that companies can gradually produce equal or better AI models at cheaper prices. This time, there just happens to be a Chinese team who were very clever in doing it, but it is more of a sign to come - and something to just get used to - rather than a thesis-breaker.  Today, the market is pricing in the cost decline, but not the explosive productivity gains that we will eventually see. On other occasions in the future, the opposite will occur. The volatility may be scary, but tech stocks are inherently volatile,
avatarJacob X
02-11

Singapore Banks: A Compelling Investment Case for 2025

$iShares MSCI Singapore ETF(EWS)$   In a world of elevated valuations and uncertain growth prospects, Singapore's banking sector stands out as a rare combination of growth, value, and income. Despite strong performance over the past year, several structural factors suggest there's more room to run. Here's why global investors are increasingly turning their attention to Singapore, particularly its three banking giants: DBS, OCBC, and UOB. Attractive Valuations in an Expensive World Let's start with the numbers that catch every value investor's eye. Singapore's big three banks currently trade at price-to-earnings (PE) ratios between 10-11x while offering dividend yields of 5-6%. To appreciate how attractive these valuations are, let's look at th
Singapore Banks: A Compelling Investment Case for 2025
avatarJacob X
2024-12-28

Why the S&P 500 Could Keep Soaring: A Bull Market From 2025 to 2030

$SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$   As we end 2024, many investors are concerned about the stock market. High valuations, re-inflation risks, and the potential changes under a Trump administration have left some wondering whether it's time to exit. However, a closer look at history and the current economic landscape suggests a strong bull market may be ahead, similar to the 1982 recovery. The S&P 500 could keep climbing with annual returns of 15-20% from 2025 through 2030, potentially pushing its value to 12,000-15,000 by 2030. Concerns: High Valuations and Inflation Many are cautious about the current market. With high valuations and inflation showing signs of a potential resurgence, fears of re-inflati
Why the S&P 500 Could Keep Soaring: A Bull Market From 2025 to 2030
avatarJacob X
02-07

Skyworks Solutions (SWKS): Navigating Beyond Apple and China for Long-Term Growth

$Skyworks Solutions(SWKS)$  has recently witnessed a significant stock price drop of 24.67% to $65.60, primarily due to news of reduced content in Apple's upcoming iPhone models. Historically, Apple has been a cornerstone of Skyworks' revenue, contributing around 72% in recent quarters.  Additionally, China, through companies like Huawei and sales of Apple products in the region, has been a crucial market, potentially adding another 20-30% to its revenue pie.  However, with this dependency now under scrutiny, the current market cap of $10.49B might not reflect the full growth potential of Skyworks. For investors focusing on long-term growth, here's how Skyworks is positioned to thrive beyond its reliance on Apple and China
Skyworks Solutions (SWKS): Navigating Beyond Apple and China for Long-Term Growth
avatarJacob X
02-04

The Self-Perpetuating Profit Machine: Why Palantir's 388 P/E Might Be "Cheap"

Wall Street analysts often miss the forest for the trees. While they fixate on traditional metrics like P/E ratios, they might be overlooking something extraordinary developing at $Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$  : the potential emergence of the world's first self-optimizing corporation. The Five Pillars of Infinite Margins 1. The Meta-Software Revolution Imagine software that manages itself. Palantir's Apollo platform isn't just managing client operationsā€”it's perfectly positioned to manage Palantir itself. Every optimization it learns from thousands of client deployments can be turned inward, creating a corporation that continuously improves its own efficiency. Labor costs? Declining. Operational overhead?
The Self-Perpetuating Profit Machine: Why Palantir's 388 P/E Might Be "Cheap"
avatarJacob X
02-26

TSLA Technical & Valuation Analysis: A Cautious Bounce, Possibly Wait for Better Entry for Long-Term Bulls?

$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$  continues to captivate market participantsā€”not only with its role as an innovation leader in the electric vehicle space but also through its dynamic technical and valuation metrics. Recent technical signals, alongside a review of historical valuation data, paint a complex picture that calls for both caution and opportunity. Short-term bullish, mid-term bearish? On the technical front, the daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) is signaling oversold conditions at around 28.87, a level that historically has been followed by a rebound within a few trading days.  TSLA daily RSI @ 28.87, suggesting oversold conditions However, the weekly RSI remains subdued at approximately 44.73, suggesting that while traders mig
TSLA Technical & Valuation Analysis: A Cautious Bounce, Possibly Wait for Better Entry for Long-Term Bulls?
avatarJacob X
01-10

BKLN: An Overlooked High-Yield Opportunity in Senior Loans

For investors seeking income in a shifting economic landscape, the $Invesco Senior Loan ETF(BKLN)$ offers a compelling yet often overlooked opportunity. With its focus on senior bank loansā€”secured, floating-rate instruments that sit at the top of the capital structureā€”BKLN delivers high yields while benefiting from improving credit conditions and a supportive economic environment. Key Reasons BKLN Shines 1. Improving Credit Conditions: As corporate balance sheets strengthen, the risk of defaults declines. Senior loans, which have priority over other debts, are positioned to thrive in this low-risk environment. 2. Economic Growth and Productivity Gains: A growing GDP driven by innovation and productivity enhances borrower stability, boosting the a
BKLN: An Overlooked High-Yield Opportunity in Senior Loans
avatarJacob X
2024-07-02
In the short term, it could reach $260 or so very quickly, and there may be some profit taking. There may also be a sell-the-news events in July and August, but if this happens, I am sure long-term players will step up and treat it as a buying opportunity. Looking towards the year end, 2024 may well be the year when the downtrend from 2021 will finally break to the upside.
avatarJacob X
02-13

Fear and Fundamentals: Why Bearish Sentiment Could Signal Buying Opportunities

$SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$   In a peculiar twist of market psychology, the S&P 500 index sits at 6,051.97 points, just below its all-time high of 6,118.71 points (reached on January 23, 2025), while investor sentiment has plunged to its most pessimistic levels in a year. This divergence between price and sentiment often creates opportunities for astute investors. "When in doubt, zoom out": SPDR S&P500 ETF (SPY) over the last 52 weeks  The Numbers Tell a Story The latest AAII Investor Sentiment Survey shows bearish sentiment at 47.3%, nearly doubling from October 2024's readings around 25%. Meanwhile, bullish sentiment has dropped from over 50% in September 2024 to just 28.4% currentl
Fear and Fundamentals: Why Bearish Sentiment Could Signal Buying Opportunities
avatarJacob X
01-22

Qualcomm (QCOM): Bullish on Connecting the Future Beyond Smartphones

$Qualcomm(QCOM)$   is renowned for its leadership in the smartphone market, powering approximately 30% of global devices, including flagship models from Samsung, Xiaomi, and OnePlus. As smartphone growth stabilizes, Qualcomm's strategic diversification into high-growth sectors presents an exciting investment opportunity. Currently trading at $167.27 per share (as of 21 Jan 2025), the company offers a 2.03% dividend yield, with an impressive 23-year track record of dividend increases. 1. Automotive Evolution Qualcomm is transforming the automotive industry through partnerships with giants like General Motors, Hyundai, and BMW. Its Snapdragon Digital Chassis enables advanced features such as autonomous drivin
Qualcomm (QCOM): Bullish on Connecting the Future Beyond Smartphones
avatarJacob X
01-31

ON Semiconductor: Powering the EV Revolution from the Sidelines

The Hidden Tech Giant Wall Street Is Overlooking? From a peak of $110 in July 2023 to the current price of $53 (as of 31 Jan 2025), $ON Semiconductor(ON)$   has experienced a dramatic correction that has shaken investor confidence. Yet, this price volatility masks a strategic opportunity that many investors are missing. The "Switzerland" of EV Technology Imagine a technology company that wins regardless of which electric vehicle manufacturer comes out on top. Like Switzerland in global trade, ON Semiconductor thrives by providing critical technological components to multiple EV manufacturers, ensuring success no matter which brand leads the market. Financial Fortress: More Than Just Numbers ON Semiconduc
ON Semiconductor: Powering the EV Revolution from the Sidelines
avatarJacob X
03-11

Nvidia's Fundamentals Shine Despite Stock Price Dip

As of March 11, 2025, $NVIDIA(NVDA)$  has experienced a notable decline in its stock price, dropping from an all-time high of $153.13ā€”reached on January 7, 2025ā€”to $106.98.  This roughly 30% plunge has shifted investor sentiment dramatically. Early in 2025, the market reveled in Nvidia's AI-driven ascent, with analysts like Morgan Stanley setting lofty targets near $152. Now, investors are starting to show doubt and impatience, with some questioning the AI boom's sustainability or fearing competition from firms like DeepSeek.  Yet, beneath this volatility, Nvidia's fundamentals have largely strengthened or held firm, exposing a disconnect between jittery market perception and the company's robust under
Nvidia's Fundamentals Shine Despite Stock Price Dip
avatarJacob X
2023-12-28
I believe 2024 will see a very different group of leadership to 2023. Falling rates should benefit Financials and Utilities. Of course AI will continue to be a theme which will benefit Technology, but the rally in Technology will not be restricted to the large cap names - rather, there should be many opportunities in the more beaten up names. One stock that I think could do well is $Zoom(ZM)$ . This stock has gone nowhere for a while despite consistently beating earnings, and their balance sheet as well as customer retention looks extremely strong. They are also the AI play that few people have been taking about.
avatarJacob X
2024-12-12

How I Am Positioning My Portfolio for 2025

As we approach 2025, the divergence in monetary policy between the Federal Reserve and Bank of Japan creates compelling opportunities across global markets. With inflation concerns moderating and a stable USD outlook, here's how I'm positioning my portfolio using specific ETFs. --- Core Positions US Equities: Technology Select Sector SPDR (XLK): Capturing AI revolution and digital transformation Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR (XLY): Positioning for resilient consumer spending Real Estate Select Sector SPDR (XLRE): Benefiting from potential rate cuts iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM): Small-cap exposure for rate cut beneficiaries --- International Markets: iShares MSCI Japan ETF (EWJ): Exposure to policy normalization and corporate reforms iShares MSCI Singapore ETF (EWS): Access to
How I Am Positioning My Portfolio for 2025
avatarJacob X
2024-11-09
怐Voting Post怑Long-term outlook:  Bull Case for Japan, Canada, and Israel in a Post-Tariff World, during a US-centred disinflation + rate cuts $iShares MSCI Japan ETF(EWJ)$   $iShares MSCI Canada ETF(EWC)$  $iShares MSCI Israel ETF(EIS)$   If the U.S. were to enact steep tariffsā€”10-20% for most countries and 60% for Chinaā€”it would radically reshape global trade dynamics, creating a unique bull case for markets in Japan, Canada, and Israel. Hereā€™s why these countries could benefit the most: Japan šŸ‡ÆšŸ‡µ With high tariffs on China, Japan would become an attractive alternative supplier for the U.S. and global markets, especially in tech
avatarJacob X
03-08

Comparing Investor Sentiment: Late 2018 vs. Early 2025

Investor sentiment in early 2025 shares striking similarities to the fear-driven market of late 2018, though some key differences exist.  Both periods were marked by Federal Reserve tightening, trade policy uncertainty, geopolitical risks, and fears of slowing economic growth, creating a risk-off environment that led to sharp selloffs in tech stocks and the broader Nasdaq-100 ($Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$  ). šŸ”“ 2018: Extreme Bearishness and a Near Bear Market Investor Fear Factors in Late 2018 1. Federal Reserve Aggressiveness ā€“ The Fed raised rates four times in 2018, tightening financial conditions and causing fears of a recession. 2. U.S.-China Trade War ā€“ Tariff escalations and the Huawei CFO's arrest led to conce
Comparing Investor Sentiment: Late 2018 vs. Early 2025
avatarJacob X
01-16
$iShares MSCI Israel ETF(EIS)$   One of the strongest stock markets at the moment 
avatarJacob X
2024-12-06

Why Australia Risks Falling Behind in the Age of AIā€”Even as the ASX200 Hits Record Highs

Australia's ASX200 has reached record highs, signaling strong performance in traditional sectors like banking and retail. Yet beneath this market optimism lies a critical challenge: Australia's preparedness for the AI revolution. While countries like the U.S., China, and Taiwan pour resources into transformative technologies, Australia faces unique hurdles from high interest rates, unaffordable housing, and stagnant consumer spending. Without decisive action, these structural issues could leave Australia lagging in the global race for innovation and economic growth. --- 1. ASX200 Highs: Risk or Opportunity? The ASX200's strong performance reflects resilience in established industries, but its lack of tech sector representation reveals an economic blind spot. While U.S. and Asian markets in
Why Australia Risks Falling Behind in the Age of AIā€”Even as the ASX200 Hits Record Highs
avatarJacob X
02-28

Why Bitcoin at $80,000 Is a Compelling Buy for Investors

As of February 28, 2025, Bitcoin is trading at approximately $80,000, a significant decline from its all-time high of $109,000 in January 2025. This 26% drop has sparked debate among investors: Is this a warning sign or a golden opportunity? Drawing on recent price action, market sentiment, historical trends, and Bitcoin's unshakable fundamentals, there's a robust case for buying Bitcoin at these levels. Here's why now could be the time to act. Is this a good time to buy BTC? A Natural Correction After a Historic Run Bitcoin's price surged to $109,000 on January 20, 2025, coinciding with Donald Trump's inauguration and a wave of pro-crypto optimism. This peak followed a bullish late 2024, when Trump's election victory and promises of deregulation propelled Bitcoin past the $100,000 milesto
Why Bitcoin at $80,000 Is a Compelling Buy for Investors
avatarJacob X
01-22
Bullish for Circle's USDC. $Coinbase Global, Inc.(COIN)$  integrates USDC into its platform through Base Layer 2.
Coinbase Would Delist Stablecoin Tether if Required by Law, CEO Says -- WSJ

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