I. Performance and Valuation of Global Equity Indices Source: Bloomberg, Tiger Asset Management II. Key Market Themes i. PCE Commentary: Expected Data Triggers Predictable Market Sell-Off Last Friday, the U.S. February PCE inflation data unsurprisingly surged again. The core PCE rose by 0.4% month-on-month and 2.8% year-on-year, both exceeding market expectations. Consequently, the three-month and six-month annualized moving averages of core PCE reversed upward to 3.58% and 3.08% respectively, once again moving further away from the Federal Reserve's long-term 2% inflation target. Source: Bloomberg, Tiger Asset Management Meanwhile, U.S. household personal income rose by 0.8% month-on-month, significantly exceeding expectations; however, personal spending growth was only 0.4%, falling

I. Performance and Valuation of Global Equity Indices Data Source: Bloomberg, Tiger Asset Management II. Key Market Themes i. FOMC Commentary: Slowing Balance Sheet Runoff Fails to Mask Stagflation Gloom; Forced Composure Unable to Alleviate Macroeconomic Concerns. Last Wednesday, the Federal Reserve's FOMC meeting unfolded as scheduled, with most actions aligning with market expectations. The central bank maintained its policy rate unchanged, while Chair Powell reiterated the Fed's position of being in no rush to cut rates. Although the dot plot continues to signal two rate cuts within this year, policymakers have adopted a more cautious stance compared to December 2022, with over 40% of officials now supporting either a single rate cut or none at all for 2024. Correspondingly, the F

I. Performance and Valuation of Global Equity Indices Data Source: Bloomberg, Complied by Tiger Brokers II. Key Market Themes i. Inflation Data Improves, Consumption Continues to Surge, Will US Stocks Begin to Rebound or Continue to Decline? Last week, the US February inflation data came in below market expectations across the board, slightly easing the tense market sentiment. Specifically, both CPI and core CPI increased by 0.22% and 0.23% month-over-month, respectively, both slightly below the expected 0.3%. Moreover, PPI and core PPI surprisingly showed a rare month-over-month decline. However, immediately after, Nick, the Fed's mouthpiece, along with major investment banks, raised their forecasts for the February PCE. Currently, Wall Street's expectations for the month-over-month

I. Performance and Valuation of Global Equity Indices Data Source: Bloomberg, Complied by Tiger Brokers II. Key Market Themes i. Trump Sparks a U.S. Version of the "Debt Reduction Movement" – When Will the Slumping U.S. Stock Market Bottom Out? Trump Sparks a U.S. Version of the "Debt Reduction Movement" – When Will the Slumping U.S. Stock Market Bottom Out?** Recently, the sharp decline in U.S. stocks has undoubtedly been the most pressing concern for investors. Since mid-to-late February, over just a dozen trading days, the Nasdaq has plunged approximately 12%; the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index has led the downturn with a 16% drop; and the once red-hot "Magnificent Seven" tech stocks have suffered significant losses. Tesla has been cut in half, Nvidia has retraced 30% from its pe

I. Performance and Valuation of Global Equity Indices Data Source: Bloomberg, Complied by Tiger Brokers II. Key Market Themes i. NVIDIA’s Stellar Earnings, Yet Stock Plummets—Is the U.S. Market Narrative Over? Last week, U.S. tech giant NVIDIA $英伟达(NVDA)$ released its latest earnings report, showing an astounding 78% year-over-year revenue growth and an 80% surge in profits—once again exceeding market expectations. In terms of performance, NVIDIA’s report was nearly flawless. The only notable downside was a sequential decline in gross margin, which was already anticipated, given the higher costs and lower margins of the new Blackwell architecture. However, despite the strong earnings, NVIDIA’s stock price fell nearly 8% in a single day, trigg

I. Performance and Valuation of Global Equity Indices Data Source: Bloomberg, Complied by Tiger Brokers II. Key Market Themes i. Greater China Market Volatility Intensifies as Trump Announces China Restrictions—How to Position for the Future? Recently, Greater China tech stocks have continued to lead the global market. Alibaba’s latest earnings report revealed a quarterly capital expenditure of $31.7 billion, further igniting investment enthusiasm in China’s AI sector. However, over the weekend, the White House released a presidential memorandum on the “America First” investment policy, restricting both Chinese capital from investing in core U.S. assets and U.S. capital from flowing into related Chinese enterprises. This has caused significant market fluctuations in Greater China. In

I. Performance and Valuation of Global Equity Indices Data Source: Bloomberg, Complied by Tiger Brokers II. Key Market Themes i. Greater China Tech Stocks Surge—Is It Too Late to Invest? Recently, driven by DeepSeek’s impact, the Greater China technology sector has experienced a significant rally. Since February, the Hang Seng Tech Index has surged over 15%, with Alibaba leading the charge, rising nearly 40% in just half a month. Additionally, trading volume in the Hang Seng Tech Index has surged, exceeding HKD 1 trillion in just two weeks. If this trend continues, February’s total trading volume could reach a historic high. Despite the rally, Greater China tech stocks remain undervalued. Current data shows that the Hang Seng Tech Index’s P/E ratio

I. Performance and Valuation of Global Equity Indices Data Source: Bloomberg, Complied by Tiger Brokers II. Key Market Themes i. DeepSeek Reshapes the Global AI Landscape: Rising Demand for Computing Power—Where Are the Future Opportunities? Recently, DeepSeek launched China's first large-scale AI model with inference capabilities comparable to OpenAI, at just one-tenth of the cost. This move has sparked widespread discussion within the industry, significantly boosting confidence in Chinese tech stocks while causing volatility in U.S. AI-related stocks. After two weeks of market digestion, discussions around DeepSeek have largely settled. Consensus has formed around computing power and NVIDIA $英伟达(NVDA)$ , with the realization that demand for

I. Performance and Valuation of Global Equity Indices Data Source: Bloomberg, Complied by Tiger Brokers II. Key Market Themes i. U.S. Inflation Cools Surprisingly, Market Concerns Ease Slightly, Opportunities Remain Last week, U.S. December inflation data was released, showing a slight cooling compared to previously strong economic indicators. Specifically, headline CPI rose 2.9% year-over-year, higher than the prior figure but in line with expectations. Notably, the increase was primarily driven by energy prices, which are subject to short-term volatility and lack long-term persistence. Meanwhile, core CPI increased 3.2% year-over-year, exceeding the prior figure but slightly below expectations. Core goods prices continued to cool, while core services remained resilient, particularly

I. Performance and Valuation of Global Equity Indices Data Source: Bloomberg, Complied by Tiger Brokers II. Key Market Themes i. Biden Administration Proposes Stricter Chip Export Ban: Could the Tech Industry Face Deep Impacts? Last week, Bloomberg reported, citing insiders, that the Biden administration plans to introduce further AI chip export restrictions before leaving office on January 20. According to rumors, the new regulations would categorize countries and regions into three tiers: Tier 1: Includes major U.S. allies such as Germany, Japan, and the Netherlands. These countries would face almost no restrictions on acquiring U.S.-exported AI chips. Tier 2: Covers most countries and regions worldwide. These would face aggregate computational power limits at a country or regional

I. Performance and Valuation of Global Equity Indices Data Source: Bloomberg, Complied by Tiger Brokers II. Key Market Themes i. Did the Santa Claus Rally Disappoint? Was This Year an Extreme Case? Over the past two weeks, the market has entered a lull with little news, marking the annual "Santa Claus Rally" period for U.S. equities. However, this year’s holiday season did not bring significant gains. Instead, the three major U.S. indices experienced varying degrees of pullbacks, prompting pessimism among investors worried about a potential market top. To examine whether the “Santa Claus Rally” truly exists and if this year is an outlier, we analyzed data from the past 40 years. We define the "Santa Claus Rally" as the two weeks surrounding January 1. Historical data shows that during

I. Performance and Valuation of Global Equity Indices Data Source: Bloomberg, Complied by Tiger Brokers II. Key Market Themes i. Fed Cuts Rates as Expected, Powell’s Hawkish Comments Rattle Markets: Is the Stock Market Peaking Again? Last week, the Federal Reserve's FOMC announced a 25 basis point rate cut, lowering the benchmark rate to 4.25%-4.5%. However, the accompanying statements were notably hawkish, with the Cleveland Fed President voting against the decision. Powell also publicly stated, “The current rate policy is no longer as restrictive, and future adjustments will be more cautious.” This aligns with our earlier assessment that the Fed would pause further rate cuts after this one. The dot plot also reflects a more hawkish stance, with three officials suggesting that the Fe

I. Performance and Valuation of Global Equity Indices Data Source: Bloomberg, Complied by Tiger Brokers II. Key Market Themes i. Positive Signals from China's High-Level Meeting: How to Position Greater China Assets? On December 9, the Chinese Communist Party's Politburo convened a meeting to analyze and discuss economic work for 2025. Compared to previous sessions, this meeting adopted a more positive tone, introducing the term “extraordinary counter-cyclical adjustments” for the first time. Moreover, in the overall agenda, “expanding domestic demand comprehensively” was prioritized over “building a modern industrial system,” indicating that addressing “how to expand domestic demand and tackle insufficient effective demand” will be the top priority for China’s economy next year. Nota

I. Performance and Valuation of Global Equity Indices Data Source: Bloomberg, compiled by Tiger Brokers II. Key Market Themes i. U.S. Economic Data Released Intensively: Is the Fed "All in Control"? Last week, the U.S. released its November manufacturing and services PMI. Unlike the past few months, manufacturing PMI saw a significant improvement over previous readings and exceeded market expectations, though it remained below the neutral 50 threshold. In contrast, services PMI sharply declined, falling below expectations but stayed above the 50 line. In other words, manufacturing is warming up, though not sufficiently, while services are weakening, but not alarmingly so. Additionally, November employment data was released last Friday. Non-farm payroll additions, based on corporate su

I. Performance and Valuation of Global Equity Indices Data Source: Bloomberg, compiled by Tiger Brokers II. Key Market Themes i. October PCE Inflation in the U.S. Meets Expectations, Economy Strengthens – Can December Deliver a Rate Cut? Recently, the October PCE inflation data for the U.S. was released. Nominal PCE and core PCE rose by 0.20% and 0.27% month-over-month, respectively, both in line with market expectations. Notably, inflation in the services sector continued to rise with an accelerating pace, while durable goods experienced a continued month-over-month decline. Overall, while inflation has ticked up, it remains within expectations. At the same time, personal income and personal spending of U.S. residents increased by 0.6% and 0.4% month-over-month, respectively, signifi

I. Performance and Valuation of Global Equity Indices Data Source: Bloomberg, compiled by Tiger Brokers II. Key Market Themes i. Trump’s Cabinet Formation is Complete: What Does the Treasury Secretary Choice Mean for the Future Macroeconomic Landscape? Recently, the highly anticipated position of U.S. Treasury Secretary in the new administration was finalized. Trump ultimately did not choose Lutnick, strongly recommended by Musk, but instead nominated Key Square founder and Soros Fund CIO, Bessent. Comparatively, Bessent is a staunch supporter of liberal economics, aligning with Trump on policies such as broad tariffs, tax reform, and financial deregulation, though he is less radical than Lutnick. Specifically, he has proposed the “3-3-3 Policy” to Trump, which entails reducing the f

I. Performance and Valuation of Global Equity Indices Data Source: Bloomberg, compiled by Tiger Brokers II. Key Market Themes i. U.S. inflation remains elevated, the economy is strong, but the stock market is plummeting—what exactly is the market worried about? Last week, the U.S. October inflation data was released. The nominal CPI and core CPI rose by 0.2% and 0.3% month-over-month, respectively, staying consistent with previous increases and meeting market expectations. A closer look reveals that only used car prices saw a notable increase, but given their small weight in the index, the overall impact was minimal. The following day, PPI data also came out as expected, with no surprises. In response, Federal Reserve spokesperson Nick indicated that while inflation remains stubborn,

I. Performance and Valuation of Global Equity Indices Data Source: Bloomberg, compiled by Tiger Brokers II. Key Market Themes i. Trump’s Decisive Victory and Republican Sweep: Implications for U.S. Equities, Bonds, and the Federal Reserve This week, the final outcome of the U.S. election revealed a sweeping win for Trump, who captured all seven battleground states and decisively secured the presidency. Additionally, the Republican Party achieved a majority in both the Senate and the House of Representatives, establishing unified governance across the executive and legislative branches. Over the coming four years, Trump’s policy implementation is likely to become smoother and have broader impacts. Market reactions have been particularly notable, with beneficiaries like DJT and Tesla

I. Performance and Valuation of Global Equity Indices Data source: Bloomberg, 2024/10/28-2024/11/03, compiled by Tiger Brokers II. Key Market Themes i. Trump’s Odds Decline, U.S. Election Uncertainty Remains – Watch Out for Market Panic This week, the results of the U.S. election are about to be announced. Just a few days ago, the market believed that Trump was almost guaranteed to win, but multiple polls released over the weekend show that the Democratic Party currently holds an advantage in several swing states. As a result, Trump’s odds on Polymarket plummeted from 66% last week to as low as 54%. On some other platforms, Harris's support rate has even surpassed Trump's, leaving the suspense of this election until the last moment. The capital markets quickly reacted as well, with Tr

I. Performance and Valuation of Global Equity Indices Data source: Bloomberg, 2024/10/21-2024/10/27, compiled by Tiger Brokers II. Key Market Themes i. Countdown to the U.S. Election: Markets Betting on a Trump Rally, Caution Needed During Macro Super Week! The highly anticipated U.S. 2024 election is entering its final countdown, with both the Republican and Democratic parties actively campaigning to make a last push. Interestingly, there is a wide disparity in polling data across different media platforms. For instance, CNN's recent poll shows support for both sides nearly tied, while The Economist’s model predicts a 54% chance of Trump returning to the White House. Additionally, external betting site Polymarket indicates a 66% probability for a Trump win. Recently, capital markets