苏36
苏36
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avatar苏36
08-15 10:27
For me, I’d pick Micron for the next three years — but with a much higher risk tolerance. Berkshire is the safer compounder, while Nvidia remains the core AI leader. But Micron has an interesting middle ground: it’s benefiting from the same AI spending boom, yet the market is only now starting to treat memory as strategic infrastructure rather than a commodity. The key is HBM. If AI demand keeps growing and memory supply remains tight, Micron’s earnings could surprise on the upside. That gives MU more potential upside than Berkshire, although the volatility will be much higher. So my ranking would be: MU for upside, NVDA for AI leadership, BRK for stability. The real question isn’t whether Micron can stay above $1 trillion — it’s whether AI has permanently changed the memory cycle. If the
avatar苏36
08-17 14:21
My picks this week: ADI & CVX 📈 For earnings, I’m watching ADI. The company has strong EPS expectations, while AI, data-center demand and a recovery in industrial markets could support future growth. If revenue and margins beat expectations and management gives stronger guidance, ADI could attract more attention. For dividends, I prefer CVX. Its strong cash flow and reliable dividend make it attractive for investors looking for both income and exposure to the energy sector. Oil prices will still be an important factor, though. Overall, I wouldn’t focus only on whether EPS beats estimates. Revenue growth, margins, guidance and future demand are what I’ll be watching most closely this week. @TigerPicks [得意]
avatar苏36
08-13
The most interesting takeaway from this earnings season is that AI demand isn’t slowing—the market is simply becoming more selective. CRWV and NBIS were rewarded because their numbers show real demand: accelerating revenue, massive backlogs, and improving profitability. SMCI also benefited because AI demand is translating directly into stronger revenue and margins. Meanwhile, COHR and CBRS tell the other side of the story. COHR delivered a strong quarter, but after a huge run-up, a simple beat was no longer enough. CBRS had impressive future commitments, yet investors focused on weak hardware revenue. That tells us where the market is heading: AI stories are cheap. AI earnings are valuable. Going forward, I’d focus less on who has the most exciting AI narrative and more on who can convert
avatar苏36
08-17 19:12
My Drone Pick: UMAC If I had to choose between RCAT and UMAC for the next 30 days, I’d pick UMAC. The reason is simple: the U.S. drone reshoring story isn’t just about building drones — it’s about localizing the entire supply chain. UMAC focuses on key components such as motors, flight controllers and FPV systems. If Washington pushes harder on domestic drone production, demand for U.S.-made components could grow alongside drone orders. RCAT has the stronger pure military-drone story, but UMAC gives investors more direct exposure to the “picks and shovels” of the reshoring boom. The risk is that UMAC is much smaller, so volatility and execution risk are higher. My 30-day pick: UMAC. ⚙️🚁 If the drone boom takes off, I’d rather own the supplier feeding the industry than bet on just one dron
avatar苏36
08-17 14:23
My pick this week: ADI 👀📈 I’m more interested in ADI than simply chasing the stocks with the highest EPS estimates. The bigger story for me is its exposure to AI, data centers, industrial automation and high-performance chips. If AI-related demand continues to accelerate and margins improve, ADI could surprise investors on the upside. I’ll also keep CVX on my watchlist. It offers a completely different setup, with strong cash flow and an attractive dividend. If energy prices remain supportive, CVX could provide both income and potential upside. But honestly, I think the most important thing this earnings season is not the EPS beat itself. The market is already looking forward. I want to see stronger revenue growth, improving margins, new AI demand and, most importantly, confident manageme
avatar苏36
08-14
SNDK can reach $2,200, but I wouldn’t chase it blindly. What makes this rally different is that the story is shifting from simply “NAND prices are going up” to better earnings visibility, supply discipline, long-term contracts and AI inference potential. If management can deliver the targeted margins and FCF while HBF becomes a real product by 2027, the market could start valuing SNDK less like a traditional cyclical memory stock. But after a 467% YTD rally, expectations are already sky-high. At this level, the risk isn’t that SNDK has a bad business—it’s that the business performs well while investors expect perfection. So I’m closer to B: bullish, but waiting for a pullback. For me, $2,200 is achievable, but the next 30–40% won’t come from hype. It has to come from real earnings growth,
avatar苏36
08-07
I lean toward B. To me, this looks more like a healthy reset in expectations than the beginning of a new downcycle. After such a strong rally, memory stocks were priced for near-perfect execution, so even solid earnings and guidance weren't enough to satisfy investors. The bigger question isn't whether NAND is slowing—it's whether that weakness spreads to DRAM and HBM. So far, AI demand hasn't changed. Hyperscalers are still investing aggressively, HBM supply remains tight, and AI servers continue to require more high-performance memory. That's why I think Micron is in a different position from pure NAND players. Its AI growth is increasingly driven by DRAM and HBM rather than NAND alone. Unless we start seeing analysts cut DRAM/HBM forecasts or AI capex slows meaningfully, I'd view this
avatar苏36
08-10
My favorite stock from this week’s list is $RKLB.  I think Rocket Lab has an interesting long-term story, not only because of its launch business, but also its Space Systems segment and the potential of Neutron. The valuation is not cheap and execution risk is still high, but if the company continues to deliver, I believe the upside could be substantial. I also like $CSCO as a more established choice. AI data centers are creating strong demand for networking infrastructure, so I’ll be watching its EPS, revenue growth and management guidance closely. For dividends, $IBM stands out to me because it offers a combination of income and exposure to AI/software growth. Overall, I don’t think investors should focus only on whether EPS beats estimates. Guidance, margins, cash flow and future
avatar苏36
08-15 10:21
For the next 30 days, I’d rank them MU > CRM > ADBE. 1️⃣ MU — Top pick Micron has the strongest AI-driven earnings story. HBM and DRAM demand remains tight, supporting pricing and margins. I think $1,150 is achievable, while $1,375 would need another major upside catalyst or earnings surprise. 2️⃣ CRM — AI agents gaining traction Agentforce is turning AI from a story into real revenue, with ARR growing rapidly. If the Aug. 26 earnings show continued adoption and strong guidance, CRM could see another valuation rerating. 3️⃣ ADBE — AI monetization play Adobe remains a high-quality software business, but the key question is whether Firefly and Acrobat AI can turn strong user adoption into sustainable revenue growth. A positive surprise could trigger a bigger rebound. Bonus: HBM is sti
avatar苏36
08-13
The STI rally looks impressive, but I think the easy money has already been made. A 24% YTD gain is difficult to ignore, especially when banks have been doing much of the heavy lifting. Yangzijiang’s record earnings show that this isn’t purely a liquidity-driven rally — real earnings are supporting parts of the market. But that also raises the bar. After such a strong run, valuation expansion alone probably won’t be enough. The next leg needs stronger profits, dividends and guidance. I’d be more selective here: banks for cash flow, shipbuilders like Yangzijiang for earnings momentum, and REITs if the rate environment becomes friendlier. My biggest takeaway: the STI may still have upside, but 2026 is shifting from an index-buying market to a stock-picking market.

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