Guinea Moves on Bauxite Exports: Is Aluminum’s Upstream Cost Curve Being Repriced?
A quiet shift is taking place at the very top of the global aluminum supply chain. Guinea, the world’s largest bauxite producer, plans to announce new export control measures in June. The goal is not to stop exports, but to manage volumes and push prices back to what the government sees as a more reasonable level. Bauxite sits at the starting point of the aluminum chain. It is processed into alumina, which is then used to produce primary aluminum. If bauxite starts to be repriced, the impact will not stop at the mine gate. Alumina, primary aluminum and downstream aluminum products will all have to recalculate their costs. Why Guinea Is Acting Guinea is not short of bauxite. The issue is that it may have been selling too much, too cheaply. In 2025, Guinea’s bauxite exports rose 25% to about
Called It! Bitcoin’s $6,000 Crash Validates My "Vanishing Buying Power" Warning
A day in crypto feels like a year in the real world. Four days ago (May 29), when Bitcoin was hovering around $73,000 with low trading volume and the market was still fantasizing about breaking previous highs, I published a post titled "Bitcoin Suffers Largest Capital Outflow of the Year: Four Data Tables Showing Where the Crypto Market's Buying Power is Disappearing."My core conclusion back then was crystal clear: The fundamental driver of this correction is not a frenzy of panic selling, but rather a collective defensive retreat by institutions, ETFs, and new on-chain capital, which has caused the market's buying power to vanish. As it turned out,
Since Bitcoin rebounded to $83,000 earlier this month, the crypto market has been steadily losing momentum. By this week, Bitcoin had slipped back toward $73,000, while Ethereum was hovering near $2,000. But the more important signal is not just the price decline itself. A closer look at market structure suggests that the bid behind crypto is weakening. Across institutional flows, ETF demand, on-chain cost levels and derivatives positioning, the same message is becoming harder to ignore: buyers are stepping back. Institutional Flows Were the First to Turn The first place to look is institutional capital. In mid-May, digital asset investment products recorded $1.07 billion in weekly outflows, ending a six-week streak of inflows. Bitcoin products accounted for $982 million of those outflows,
A Regional Snapshot Shows U.S. Manufacturing May Be Regaining Its Footing
This week, the Nasdaq and S&P 500 have successively reached record highs. In addition to AI and corporate earnings expectations, the resilience of the US economy itself is also an important backdrop supporting the risk appetite of US stocks. Today, we attempt to provide a perspective on the state of US manufacturing from the newly released Richmond Fed manufacturing data. The Richmond Fed Manufacturing Composite Index rose from 3 in April to 13 in May, significantly higher than market expectations. More importantly, the three core sub-indices rebounded in tandem: new orders rose from 8 to 17, shipments from -2 to 16, and employment from 0 to 3. It should be noted that the Richmond Fed covers the Fifth Federal Reserve District of the US, including Washington, D.C., Maryland, North Carol