The Strait of Hormuz remains a focal point of Middle Eastern tensions. According to recent reports, Mohammad Akbarzadeh, deputy commander of the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy, stated that the strait is now entirely under the control of Iran's naval forces, with more than ten oil tankers having been struck by artillery fire in the waterway. Meanwhile, U.S. President Donald Trump announced that, if necessary, the U.S. Navy will begin escorting oil tankers transiting the Strait of Hormuz. Trump also warned that Iran has seen nearly all of its military capabilities destroyed and will face further strikes if necessary.
Amid escalating geopolitical risks, prices of precious metals such as gold and silver surged. Spot silver rose more than 4% during the session, while spot gold climbed over 2%. International oil prices also edged higher.
On March 4, Iran’s Fars News Agency reported that Akbarzadeh emphasized that the Strait of Hormuz is now under full Iranian military control. He noted that despite repeated warnings from the Revolutionary Guard Navy that the strait was in a state of conflict, more than ten oil tankers ignored the alerts and were hit and destroyed by shelling. Akbarzadeh stressed that following Iran’s declaration of a ban on navigation through the strait, oil tankers, commercial vessels, and fishing boats can no longer pass through. Earlier, Revolutionary Guard Commander Jabari warned that any vessel attempting to transit the strait would be destroyed, stating, “We will not allow a single drop of oil to leave the region.”
On March 3, President Trump stated that the U.S. Navy is prepared to escort oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz if needed. He also announced that the U.S. International Development Finance Corporation has been directed to offer political risk insurance and financial security guarantees for all maritime trade passing through the Gulf, particularly energy shipments, at “very reasonable rates.” Trump indicated that these guarantees would be available to all shipping companies.
Following Trump’s remarks, U.S. crude oil prices trimmed gains during midday trading. However, market analysts remain skeptical about whether these measures can quickly restore normal oil flows through the strait. Rohit Rathod, a senior analyst at Vortexa, commented that while Trump’s steps may not ensure unimpeded transit, some vessels might still get through, though attacks remain a possibility. Kevin Book, an analyst at ClearView Energy Partners, noted that focusing solely on shipping may not prevent oil price increases, as conflict also poses other upside risks, including threats to production facilities.
In a related development, the Israeli Defense Forces issued a statement on March 3 claiming to have struck a secret underground nuclear weapons development site in Iran. The International Atomic Energy Agency stated on the same day that there is no evidence Iran is building nuclear weapons. The Israeli military asserted that the strike targeted multiple facilities linked to Iran’s Defense Ministry nuclear weapons program, dealing a significant blow to Iran’s nuclear capabilities. The IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi acknowledged that while no systematic nuclear weapons program has been detected, Iran’s stockpiling of near-weapons-grade enriched uranium and refusal to grant full access to inspectors raise serious concerns.
Last June, the U.S. launched the “Midnight Hammer” strikes against Iran, with Trump announcing that American forces had successfully hit three nuclear facilities in Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan.
During a meeting with German Chancellor Merz on March 3, Trump claimed that Iran has lost nearly all of its military capacity—including its air force, air defense systems, radar, and detection facilities—and that its missile stockpiles are rapidly diminishing. He warned that Iran will face further significant strikes. Trump praised some European allies, including Germany, for their support but criticized Spain for not agreeing to raise defense spending to 5% of GDP under NATO guidelines. He also expressed dissatisfaction with the United Kingdom regarding military base arrangements.
