Three weeks have passed since the joint US-Israel military strike on Iran began on February 28, leading to a profound repricing of global assets. According to Wind data, from February 28 to March 19, global asset prices were significantly impacted by the US-Iran conflict. Commodities led the charge, with Brent crude oil surging nearly 50%, capturing global market attention. In contrast, traditional safe-haven assets gold and silver were pressured by inflation concerns, both falling by double-digit percentages. Meanwhile, stock indices in major Middle Eastern countries showed divergent performances. While Israel and Saudi Arabia maintained gains, the UAE's DFM General Index plunged nearly 15%, and Egypt's CASE 30 fell over 3%. Outside the Middle East, apart from Russia's MOEX index edging up 2.5%, major global stock indices generally declined. Japan, Germany, and France led the losses with drops exceeding 9%, specifically the Nikkei 225 down 9.31%, Germany's DAX down 9.67%, and France's CAC 40 down 9.01%. South Korea's KOSPI fell over 7%, and the S&P 500 declined nearly 4%. Notably, Chinese assets demonstrated relative resilience during this period. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 3.76%, and the Hang Seng Tech Index dropped 2.76%, both showing smaller declines compared to most European, American, and Asian markets.
Market attention is focused on whether the Middle East conflict will spread to energy facilities. According to a March 18 report citing Iranian sources, Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps issued an urgent warning that oil facilities in Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Qatar have become legitimate targets, with strikes expected within hours, urging civilians in relevant areas to evacuate. Separately, Israeli media reported on March 18 that the Israeli Air Force attacked Iran's "main natural gas facilities" in Bushehr, southern Iran, and is prepared to target other Iranian national infrastructure. Anliang Futures noted that these events signify a shift in the key drivers for the recent rise in the energy and chemical sectors. The focus has moved from concerns about the Strait of Hormuz's accessibility to whether the US-Iran conflict will spread across the Middle East, and whether oil and gas resources and facilities there will suffer devastating attacks, potentially leading to production cuts or stoppages, transforming the supply issue from "congestion" to "shortage." Anliang Futures warned that mutual attacks on core oil, gas, and petrochemical facilities by Iran and Israel have escalated the conflict from a local military engagement to a systemic shock for the global energy supply chain and commodity markets. As a core supply hub for global crude oil, LNG, petrochemicals, and fertilizers, damage to key Middle Eastern facilities not only pushes up short-term energy prices but could also profoundly impact commodities, agriculture, industrial metals, and even global financial stability through cost transmission, trade restructuring, and deteriorating risk appetite. Cinda Futures holds a relatively optimistic view. The brokerage's latest research report suggests that Middle East risks are marginally cooling. Specifically, core Middle Eastern crude oil production facilities have not been severely damaged, with no substantial loss of production capacity; current damage is mainly to refineries and gas fields. Israel has paused airstrikes on Iranian energy facilities, temporarily removing the risk of further deterioration in supply-side geopolitics, with no new supply disruption events. While the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, Saudi Arabia and the UAE have adjusted their crude export routes, and the oil transport pipeline in northern Iraq has resumed operation. The US has lifted maritime oil sanctions on Russia and Iran, and the IEA has confirmed a strategic reserve release plan of 426 million barrels, providing clear expectations for additional supply.
Regarding A-shares, Chuanyuan Futures believes that while the escalation of the Middle East situation caused a drop in overseas assets overnight and the US signaled efforts to curb oil prices, overall asset risk appetite remains low, with geopolitics still being the primary overseas driver. Domestic A-shares also exhibited cautious risk appetite on March 19 due to geopolitical tensions and the approaching earnings season. The market index briefly fell below the 4000-point mark but recovered by the close, indicating ongoing contention around this level. In precious metals, Orient Securities stated that persistently rising crude oil prices are rapidly increasing global inflationary pressures, impacting precious metals due to expectations of tighter monetary policy. However, prices touching previous lows have attracted some bottom-fishing capital. In the medium to long term, the underlying logic for gold's rise hasn't reversed, though short-term prices are entering a volatile phase. Gold is expected to trade weakly in the short term, awaiting configuration opportunities after volatility subsides, with silver performing weaker than gold. For the energy and chemical sector, CITIC Futures believes crude oil will lead chemicals in maintaining a strong, volatile pattern. Latest weekly data indicates the chemical industry chain is still in a process where upstream operations are declining, while midstream and terminal operations are gradually recovering. Chemical raw materials themselves face supply reductions, and widening domestic-international price gaps may later lead to increased export diversion. Current weak downstream demand is not yet the primary contradiction. Supply disruptions in the energy sector continue to emerge; for example, besides supply reductions from the Middle East, an LPG producer declared force majeure on Thursday. The current landscape for chemicals remains prone to increases rather than decreases.
