Despite disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, Iran’s crude oil exports have increased rather than declined, creating a stark contrast with its Gulf neighbors, who have been forced to reduce supplies. According to data from tanker tracking firm Kpler on March 11, Iran’s average daily crude loadings rose to 2.1 million barrels over the past six days, exceeding the February export level of 2 million barrels—before the U.S.-Iran conflict began. Meanwhile, major Gulf oil producers such as Saudi Arabia and Iraq have been compelled to cut supplies and urgently seek alternative routes due to shipping lane obstructions, highlighting the accelerating divergence in supply dynamics driven by geopolitical fissures.
Oil prices have experienced sharp fluctuations amid U.S.-Iran tensions. On Monday, market panic drove Brent crude to briefly surge near $120 per barrel, a four-year high. However, prices quickly retreated after former President Donald Trump signaled that the conflict would “end soon.” Nevertheless, concerns over supply disruptions persist. JPMorgan estimates that if the Strait remains blocked for two weeks, the Gulf region could lose approximately 3.8 million barrels of crude per day, equivalent to over 3% of global production. Media reports citing sources indicate that the G7 is urgently discussing plans to release what could be the largest-ever strategic petroleum reserves to mitigate potential impacts.
Despite escalating tensions in the Hormuz Strait, Iran’s export channels remain operational. Kpler data shows that since the conflict began, seven tankers have loaded crude off Iran’s coast, with at least two of the most recent operations taking place inside the Persian Gulf. Although security conditions in the Strait of Hormuz continue to deteriorate, Iran’s crude export infrastructure has so far continued functioning.
Since U.S.-led airstrikes began, Iran has repeatedly threatened to attack vessels transiting the Strait, leading many commercial ships to reroute or delay voyages. According to the International Maritime Organization, within less than two weeks of the conflict’s onset, ten vessels near the Strait of Hormuz had been attacked by Iranian forces, resulting in at least seven crew fatalities. An Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson warned in an interview with CNBC that oil tankers transiting the Strait “must be very cautious.” In response, Trump stated in a Fox News interview that stranded vessels should “show courage” and proceed, adding, “There’s nothing to fear—they have no navy; we’ve sunk all their ships.”
Iran is also exploring alternative export routes to bypass the Strait. According to CNBC, Tehran has resumed crude loading operations at the Jask oil and gas terminal, located along the Gulf of Oman south of the Strait of Hormuz. This move is seen as an attempt by Iran to circumvent the Strait and explore backup export pathways amid heightened geopolitical tensions. The Jask facility is Iran’s only crude export channel that does not require passage through the Strait of Hormuz, providing direct access to the Gulf of Oman. However, its operational efficiency is significantly lower than that of Kharg Island, the country’s primary export hub near Hormuz Island.
Samir Madani, co-founder of tanker tracking firm TankerTrackers, noted that an Iranian vessel is currently loading about 2 million barrels of crude at Jask—marking only the fifth loading operation at the site in five years. He pointed out that loading a Very Large Crude Carrier (VLCC) at Jask can take up to ten days, compared to just one or two days at Kharg Island. Kpler analyst Nhway Khin Soe suggested that reactivating Jsk indicates Tehran is evaluating alternative routes, but it remains uncertain whether it can serve as a sustainable export channel. Madani was more blunt, stating that the facility “holds some value for domestic propaganda, but offers very limited logistical advantages.”
With no signs of easing tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, global energy markets continue to face persistent supply risks. Analysts believe the evolution of the geopolitical conflict will remain a key variable shaping future oil price trends.
