To The Moon

The Middle East situation has entered the fourth day of full-scale military confrontation between the US/Israel and Iran. The conflict has spread widely, triggering severe regional chain reactions. Civilian casualties have been reported in Lebanon, Israel, and various locations in Iran, with large numbers of people fleeing the war zones. Global oil prices and shipping costs have surged, causing significant turbulence in financial markets. Since March 1, the Strait of Hormuz has been completely blocked by Iran, disrupting approximately 20% of the global oil and gas supply route. The number of oil tankers passing through has dropped from over a hundred per day to single digits. Major shipping companies like Maersk and Mediterranean Shipping Company have suspended routes, pushing the global energy supply chain to the brink of collapse. The most immediately affected assets, as widely recognized, are oil and gold. The Middle East is a core global oil and gas production region. Following the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, shipping lanes are interrupted and maritime transport has halted, directly restricting supply from the source. Combined with the escalation of regional conflict, market panic over potential shortages has intensified. Capital flowing into the crude oil market as a safe haven has driven prices higher, with energy supply chain fragility further reinforcing expectations for continued price increases. As a result, the largest oil ETF (561360) by market size saw its gains climb steadily yesterday, hitting a strong 10% limit-up by the close. Trading was active throughout the session with persistent premium transactions. By the market close, the turnover exceeded 3.6 billion yuan, with a turnover rate exceeding 100%. The fund's size is over 6.5 billion yuan. Meanwhile, gold, as the premier safe-haven asset during wartime, has become the preferred shelter for capital following the escalation of hostilities. Substantial inflows have pushed gold prices higher. Concurrently, the conflict has triggered significant volatility in financial markets and fluctuations in currency credibility, strengthening gold's value-preservation attributes. Continued safe-haven buying is supporting the upward trend in gold prices. Influenced by the escalation, COMEX gold fluctuated higher on March 2, closing at 5,335 points. Why is the Strait of Hormuz so critical? The Strait of Hormuz is located between Iran and the Arabian Peninsula. It is a narrow waterway connecting the Persian Gulf with the Gulf of Oman and the Indian Ocean. It stretches about 150 kilometers east-west, with its narrowest point being only 39 kilometers wide. It is the most sensitive and crucial maritime chokepoint in global geopolitics and the energy landscape. While this passage appears narrow, it is the only natural outlet from the Persian Gulf. Any vessel entering or exiting the Persian Gulf must pass through it, making its geographical position irreplaceable. The Strait of Hormuz is not solely within Iranian territory. The strait has no single "sovereign state"; water rights are divided among Iran, Oman, and the UAE. However, historically, external powers have often held de facto control. From the Cold War to the present, the US has maintained de facto control through its military presence. Iran controls the northern shore and key islands (such as Abu Musa Island), creating a dynamic where "Iran holds the passage, while the US dominates security." Historically, Iran has never fully blockaded the Strait of Hormuz, typically using it for deterrence or limited actions. The blockade last week marked the first true closure of the strait. How long will the conflict last? Reviewing history, the Iran-Israel conflict in June 2025 shares similarities with the characteristics of the current conflict that began in early 2026. Analyzing commodity price trends from that earlier period offers some reference for assessing the current market. Timeline-wise, on the evening of June 12, Israel launched preemptive airstrikes on multiple nuclear facilities and military targets within Iran, marking the start of the "Twelve-Day War." On June 23-24, the US announced that Israel and Iran had reached a framework for a "comprehensive ceasefire," which took effect at 00:00 on June 24. The actual duration of the war was approximately 12 days. The oil price trajectory from last June may also serve as a reference for the current conflict's potential impact. However, it is crucial to note that the conflict in the Middle East is not a short-term dispute. Entangled religious, ethnic, territorial, and historical grievances have persisted for millennia. This region has long been the world's most sensitive powder keg. Even if temporary ceasefires are agreed upon, they do not represent a true resolution. Deep-seated contradictions remain unresolved. Intervention by external powers, regional instability, and public sentiment polarization can all cause tensions to flare instantly. As long as the root causes are not fundamentally addressed, any spark can reignite conflict. Hostilities are likely to recur in different forms, making a lasting, genuine peace difficult to achieve in the long term. Under the current circumstances, how should one approach investing in gold and oil? In the short term, uncertainty in the Middle East persists. Oil prices are more prone to rise than fall. Revenues and profits for oil and gas companies are improving in tandem with oil prices, showing strong earnings elasticity, which provides solid momentum for stock price appreciation. From a medium-term perspective, the price center for oil is steadily shifting upwards. The profit stability and cash flow adequacy of domestic state-owned oil enterprises continue to improve. Coupled with the advantage of high dividends, these stocks offer strong defensive qualities and return potential during a period of declining interest rates. Long-term, the energy transition is a gradual process. Traditional energy remains the core support of the global energy system, with oil and gas demand having a solid, long-term floor. The industry will not decline rapidly. Leading companies, leveraging their resource advantages, cost efficiencies, and global footprint, can continue to generate stable returns. Compared to direct investment in crude oil futures, oil and gas stocks offer both earnings growth potential and dividend income, presenting a more suitable risk-reward profile for ordinary investors. Regarding investment vehicle selection, the Oil ETF (561360, Connect A 020405, Connect C 020406) is an efficient and convenient tool for gaining exposure to the oil and gas sector. This fund closely tracks the Oil and Gas Industry Index (H30198), focusing on core upstream segments like exploration, extraction, production, and sales, allowing it to fully benefit from the earnings release driven by rising oil prices. In the current complex and turbulent global environment, where conflict could escalate at any moment, allocating to gold holds a degree of necessity. The conflict between Israel and Arab nations is deeply rooted, with centuries-old animosities unlikely to be resolved quickly, keeping the region a perpetual powder keg. Risks such as geopolitical conflicts, energy crises, and financial market volatility are intertwined and will continue to fuel global risk-off sentiment. As a safe-haven asset and value anchor, the Guotai Gold ETF (518800, Connect A 000218, Connect C 004253, Connect E 022502) possesses characteristics of risk resistance, inflation hedging, and cycle transcendence. In an environment of heightened uncertainty, it can effectively hedge risks and stabilize investment portfolios. Risk Disclosure: Views may adjust with changing market conditions and do not constitute investment advice or promises. Mentioned funds have varying risk-return profiles. Investors are advised to carefully read the fund's legal documents, fully understand product features, risk levels, and distribution principles, and choose products that match their own risk tolerance. Invest with caution. Data source: Wind, as of March 2, 2026. The Oil ETF size exceeds 6.5 billion yuan, with a year-to-date average daily turnover of 333 million yuan, ranking first among the 8 ETFs tracking A-share oil-related indices. Fund size and trading data are subject to fluctuation and do not indicate future performance. The Oil ETF is an equity fund, with theoretically higher expected returns and risk levels than hybrid funds, bond funds, and money market funds. The Oil ETF is an index fund, primarily employing a full replication strategy to track its target index; its risk-return characteristics are similar to those of the market portfolio represented by the target index. The Oil ETF Connect funds are feeder funds; their target ETF is an equity index fund, with theoretically higher expected returns and risk levels than hybrid funds, bond funds, and money market funds. The Oil ETF Connect funds mainly invest in the target ETF to track the index's performance and have risk-return characteristics similar to the target index and the securities market it represents. Before purchasing any fund product, please thoroughly review the fund's legal documents, pay attention to investor suitability regulations, complete a risk assessment in advance, and purchase fund products with a risk level matching your own risk tolerance. Funds carry risks; investment requires caution. Note: When subscribing for or redeeming Oil ETF shares, subscription/redemption agents may charge subscription fees up to 0.50%, which include fees charged by stock exchanges, registration institutions, etc. Investors pay subscription fees when subscribing for Class A shares of the Oil ETF Connect fund; no subscription fees are paid for Class C shares, instead a sales service fee is deducted from the assets of that share class. (The sales service fee for Class C shares is accrued at an annual rate of 0.20% of the previous day's net asset value per Class C share. The subscription fee rate for Connect A is: subscription amount < 500,000 yuan, fee rate 1.00%; 500,000 yuan ≤ subscription amount < 1,000,000 yuan, fee rate 0.60%; subscription amount ≥ 1,000,000 yuan, charged per transaction, 100 yuan/transaction. Regarding redemption fees, the redemption fee rates for Class A and Class C shares are as follows: holding period of redeemed shares < 7 days, redemption fee rate 1.50%; holding period of redeemed shares ≥ 7 days, no redemption fee is charged. Please refer to the fund's legal documents for details. The Gold ETF is an equity fund that closely tracks its target index. Investing in the Gold ETF primarily involves the investment risks of an equity fund. Expected return levels are closely related to factors such as asset price volatility, market sentiment, and liquidity, featuring relatively high risk-return characteristics. Please pay attention to investor suitability management requirements, complete a risk assessment in advance, and purchase fund products with a risk level matching your own risk tolerance. Note: Subscription and redemption of Gold ETF shares are settled in cash, including cash differences and other considerations. There are no subscription or redemption fees when contracting to subscribe or redeem fund shares. When subscribing for or redeeming Gold ETF shares and Gold ETF Connect fund shares, no subscription fees are paid for Class C and Class E shares; instead, a sales service fee is deducted from the assets of those share classes. The sales service fee for Class C shares is accrued at an annual rate of 0.25%, and for Class E shares at 0.30%. For holdings of 1 year or more, the fee rate is 0.15%; for holdings of less than 1 year, the fee rate is 0.30%. The subscription fee rate for Gold ETF Connect A is: subscription amount < 500,000 yuan, fee rate 1.00%; 500,000 yuan ≤ subscription amount < 1,000,000 yuan, fee rate 0.60%; subscription amount ≥ 1,000,000 yuan, charged per transaction, 100 yuan/transaction. Regarding redemption fees, the redemption fee rates for Class A shares are as follows: holding period < 7 days, redemption fee rate 1.50%; holding period 7 days ≤ holding period < 30 days, redemption fee rate 0.1%; holding period ≥ 30 days, no redemption fee is charged. The redemption fee rates for Class E shares are as follows: holding period < 7 days, redemption fee rate 1.50%; holding period ≥ 7 days, redemption fee rate 0.05%; holding period ≥ 30 days, no redemption fee is charged. Please refer to the fund's legal documents for details.