Michael Burry, renowned for his role in "The Big Short," is reinforcing his pessimistic outlook on Nvidia, highlighting a concerning detail in the chipmaker's recent financial results that resembles trends observed during the peak of the late 1990s dot-com bubble.
In a newsletter published on Thursday, Burry pointed to a significant increase in Nvidia's purchase obligations, which jumped to $95.2 billion from $16.1 billion the previous year.
Nvidia's shares traded near session lows on Thursday, declining about 5%.
Combined supply commitments, encompassing inventory and purchase agreements, now total approximately $117 billion, nearly equaling Nvidia's annual operating cash flow. During the company's fiscal fourth-quarter earnings call on Wednesday, Chief Financial Officer Colette Kress noted that inventory grew by 8% compared to the previous quarter.
She stated that Nvidia had "strategically secured inventory and capacity to meet demand beyond the next several quarters, further out in time than usual." According to Burry, these remarks indicate that the largest U.S. publicly traded company is committing to purchase substantial supply before fully understanding future demand strength.
This strategy results in more capital being allocated to inventory for extended periods. Burry emphasized that the current situation is "not temporary," nor is it caused by an external export shock. He described it as originating from within the company's business plan, reflecting a deliberate decision to secure supply chain capacity more extensively than ever before.
The prominent investor compared the circumstances to those faced by Cisco Systems during the height of the dot-com boom around 2000-2001. During that period, Cisco secured large supply commitments to support anticipated rapid growth.
When corporate technology spending abruptly declined, Cisco was burdened with excess inventory and contractual obligations it could not utilize, ultimately leading to multi-billion dollar write-downs and a sharp stock price decline.
Burry commented that Nvidia's current actions represent significant risk, not standard business practice. He recalled that Cisco had similarly extended purchase commitments with suppliers to ensure capacity for its projected 50% annual growth.
While acknowledging that Nvidia's current profit margins, exceeding 70%, are higher than Cisco's were at the time—potentially offering some protection against downturns—Burry suggested these margins have been inflated by exceptionally strong demand and Nvidia's pricing power. He warned that such high margins could quickly diminish if demand shifts.
Not all observers view the inventory buildup as a warning signal. Analysts at Rosenblatt Securities noted that Nvidia's management addressed various investor concerns during the quarter, including GPU capacity, competition from custom chips, power availability, memory supply, and customer financing.
The firm described Nvidia's leadership as confident in supporting customer demand for its next-generation platforms and continuing to lead AI market development. On Thursday, Rosenblatt raised its 12-month price target for Nvidia to $300 from $245, implying potential gains of over 50% in the next year.