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Oil Above $100: Winners, Losers, and Market Risks for Singapore Investors

Trading Random03-19 10:16

Oil prices have climbed above the US$100 per barrel threshold amid heightened geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

Motorists are already experiencing the effect through increased fuel expenses.

For market participants, the situation is analogous: rising crude prices swiftly transmit effects across various sectors.

Certain industries, such as oil and gas producers and marine support services, stand to gain from the price increase. Conversely, sectors heavily dependent on petroleum, including aviation and maritime transport, may encounter margin compression due to elevated operating expenses.

Sustained high oil prices frequently trigger broad-based inflation across goods and services.

Such conditions may also exert upward pressure on bond yields, potentially leading to higher interest rates and increased macroeconomic instability.

Equity valuations could face downward pressure, evoking memories of the market volatility observed during the 2022-2023 period.

Against this backdrop, here are several Singapore-listed companies likely to experience varied effects from the oil price increase.

Marco Polo Marine Limited: Benefiting from the Oil Price Upswing

Marco Polo Marine is well-positioned to capitalize on stronger oil markets.

The company benefits from improved charter rates and higher utilization of its offshore support vessels, which serve the oil and gas and renewable energy industries.

For the first quarter of fiscal year 2026, the group reported a 27% year-on-year revenue increase to S$32.8 million, with gross profit rising 32% to S$14.0 million.

This performance was driven by a fleet utilization rate of 76%, up from 71% the previous year, alongside significantly higher average charter rates.

The company's shipyard division may also see increased activity, supported by a record order book for new vessel construction early in 2026.

Furthermore, its renewable energy segment provides a strategic counterbalance.

This diversification allows Marco Polo Marine to gain from the energy transition trend, offsetting potential volatility from oil price movements.

Operational momentum in renewables remains strong; its flagship vessel, MP Wind Archer, recently received the "Offshore Energy Vessel of the Year 2026" award and is currently engaged in long-term wind farm operations in North Asia.

In summary, Marco Polo Marine gains directly from higher oil prices through its traditional business, while its renewable energy operations offer a secondary growth driver and improved earnings stability.

Singapore Airlines Limited: Facing Cost Pressures and Demand Concerns

Singapore Airlines is often adversely affected by sharp increases in oil prices.

Fuel constitutes the airline's largest operational expense. In the quarter ending December 2025, net fuel costs rose 3.6% year-on-year to S$1.36 billion, representing 24.7% of total revenue.

The carrier employs a hedging strategy, typically covering half of its anticipated fuel needs for the following quarter, which offers some protection though not complete insulation from prices above US$100 per barrel.

Beyond direct cost increases, persistently high oil prices may suppress air travel demand as rising living costs reduce discretionary spending.

However, operational data for February 2026 showed resilience, with passenger numbers increasing 7.2% year-on-year to 3.3 million, partly due to the timing of the Lunar New Year holidays.

Nevertheless, the combination of higher fuel expenditure and potential demand softening is expected to pressure the company's industry-leading profit margins.

While the airline's strong market position and hedging provide some defense, it remains highly sensitive to energy price fluctuations.

Investors should monitor the Passenger Load Factor, which stood at 85.6% in February, for indications of demand erosion.

DBS Group Holdings Limited: Potential Rise in Loan Impairments

DBS Group Holdings, as a major financial institution, may face indirect challenges from elevated oil prices.

Sustained high crude prices can fuel inflation, potentially weakening corporate profitability broadly and impairing borrowers' ability to service debt, which could lead to an increase in non-performing loans for the bank.

Historical precedent exists, such as during the shale oil downturn a decade ago, when Singapore banks faced significant challenges due to exposure to the oil and gas sector.

Although DBS has since diversified its loan portfolio, a general economic slowdown could still affect its assets.

The bank enters 2026 with a solid financial position. Its non-performing loan ratio was stable at 1.0% at the end of fiscal year 2025, with strong allowance coverage of 130%.

With S$488 billion in assets under management and proactive risk management, DBS maintains a substantial buffer against economic shocks.

While banking stocks are cyclical and sensitive to energy-related downturns, DBS's greater reliance on fee income and strong capital base position it more resilient compared to previous cycles.

Market participants should review the bank's upcoming quarterly results, due in late April, for early indicators of credit stress, particularly among small and medium enterprises or manufacturing clients.

Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

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Comment1

  • Kekemon
    ·03-19 12:02
    Waiting for $200. By then, all stock counter should be attractive.
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