To The Moon

This July 4th marks the 250th anniversary of the founding of the United States, a historic milestone that is shaping up to be a key focal point for market observers. Analysts suggest that former President Donald Trump is highly likely to use this occasion to release a flurry of positive signals, aiming to propel the stock market to new record highs around the anniversary.

On June 22nd, Academy Securities strategist Peter Tchir noted that Trump's current poll numbers are low. With tensions with Iran easing, his focus is expected to shift swiftly to domestic economic issues.

Trump has recently posted on his social media platform, Truth Social, linking Apple Inc. with Intel Corp (INTC), an action viewed by many as a typical 'presidential endorsement' maneuver. Tchir believes that in the two-week window leading up to the 250th anniversary, similar policy statements and market commentary are likely to become commonplace.

Concurrently, the interest rate environment is showing positive shifts. New Federal Reserve Chair Warsh's performance at his first FOMC meeting exceeded expectations, effectively compressing tail risks on the long end of the yield curve. The bond market volatility indicator, the MOVE Index, has subsequently retreated to levels seen before the Iran situation escalated.

Academy Securities has adjusted its interest rate stance from bearish to neutral. The combination of these factors provides a relatively favorable macroeconomic backdrop for Trump to 'set off fireworks' in the markets ahead of the national celebration.

Polling Pressure Fuels Trump's Market Motive

According to aggregated polling data from Real Clear Politics, Trump's current approval ratings are near or at the lows of his political career. Tchir highlights that this context is crucial—Trump has always been keen on 'winning' and prefers to showcase victories in a grand, visible manner.

The 250th anniversary is a genuine historical milestone with high symbolic value. Academy Securities analysis notes that Trump possesses a strong motivation to secure a win and places immense importance on the political legacy of this celebration.

To stage a 'grand and perfect' commemoration, the White House has a high incentive to utilize all available resources in the short term to bolster economic data.

In the coming two weeks, the former president is expected to make frequent public statements to boost market sentiment, with a core objective of pushing U.S. stock indices to record highs around Independence Day, thereby directly improving his poll numbers.

On the Iran front, while the U.S. and Iran signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU), Tchir characterizes it as a 'fragile ceasefire' or a 'band-aid solution'—its primary function is to maintain stable oil supply while buying time for all parties to assess the situation.

With this geopolitical risk cooling down for now, Trump's policy focus is anticipated to shift noticeably toward the domestic economy.

Intel as a Case Study in Presidential Endorsement

Tchir specifically points to Intel Corp (INTC) as a typical case for understanding Trump's market tactics. He had previously dedicated an entire segment of analysis to Intel in his ProSec 2026 report, with the core logic being that it's "hard to imagine the government not trying to protect taxpayers' investment in this company."

Last Thursday, Trump posted on Truth Social linking Apple Inc. with Intel. Although neither company has officially confirmed related details, Tchir interprets this move as a signal: in the critical window before the national anniversary, the president may persistently 'endorse' specific companies or industries through similar methods.

Furthermore, the global trend toward Protection and Security (ProSec) industries is accelerating, with Europe and Canada gradually moving in this direction. Companies in related sectors may receive further policy support from Washington.

Warsh's Debut Mitigates Rate Risk, Stance Shifts to Neutral

On the interest rate front, Academy Securities has shifted its previous bearish stance to neutral, a change directly triggered by new Fed Chair Warsh's performance at his first FOMC meeting.

Tchir believes Warsh handled the meeting adeptly: on one hand, he clearly attributed inflation responsibility to the Fed's prior policy decisions, using hawkish rhetoric that effectively stabilized long-term yields; on the other, he announced the formation of several working groups, with the 'Data Sources Working Group' drawing particular attention from Tchir.

Tchir has long been critical of the quality of U.S. official economic data, citing issues such as non-farm payrolls relying on surveys, excessive errors in the household survey used for unemployment calculations, and severe lags in the 'Owners' Equivalent Rent' component of CPI. These problems, he argues, lead to a 'garbage in, garbage out' decision-making dilemma.

He believes Warsh's push for data reform is the right direction, but it will be difficult to implement quickly in the short term.

Regarding bond market volatility, the MOVE Index fell sharply last Thursday, returning to pre-Iran-tension levels. Tchir attributes this decline primarily to Warsh's statements rather than the signing of the Iran MOU.

In summary, Tchir's core assessment is that the interest rate outlook has improved significantly compared to recent months, geopolitical risks have cooled for now, and Trump has a strong political incentive to push stock markets higher ahead of the 250th anniversary. Tchir writes, "I think the president will be making a number of statements over the next few days, and he almost certainly wants the stock market at an all-time high and his poll numbers looking better as we celebrate America's 250th birthday."